Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 00:02)
Mooney: Au contraire, Amigo. ( Or something like that ) At least Canadian politics and discussions are carried on in a civil manner. I have been following the discussion with a sense of awe. It is actually cordial compared to the mindless crap that takes place here in the suburbs to the south. Witness the moronic stuff that US partisans have posted here in the recent past. Its enough to gag a maggot. In addition, it is election time and you Canucks, mercifully, complete the process in a tolerable length of time. We in the US, on the other hand, must revel, endlessly, in the swill and are subjected to the process interminably. It literally, never ends. ..... UNtil one or the other runs out of money. .... a temporary setback.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 00:02)
@ Valley
Ted & Novice : Just got home from the donut factory , and looks like I missed a good discussion on Cape Breton. Us mainlanders have been saying this for years!!! Ted , a reform seagull with night vision coming your way!!!

(Mon Jun 02 1997 00:12)
Eldo: Forgive me but for us old guys, Friday's post are prehistoric. ..... but without being a smartass, my thoughts are that unless there are compelling reasons for corn and wheat to go lower than recent history, both are probably a buy in here. ..... but what do I know. I liked corn at 296. It had good support at 292. Remember? ..... When I look at gold, I remember corn at 292-296. Slid right through 292 without taking a breath. ..... 340 gold is solid support? Maybe. Maybe not. Until the volume improves I ain't buying it.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 00:13)
@ Valley
Earl : Careful !!! You may bring the wrath of American pie eaters!!!Deportation to Cape Breton may not be in your plans. ha ha ha

(Mon Jun 02 1997 00:15)
Donovan's Place
Well gentlemen--I noticed a distinct lack of contempt for the PrestoMan and his friends from Wendy and her buddies tonight. Presto wants to privatize the CBC so the recent respect might mean they have seen their new boss or more likely the pain in their boss's --back. Big day on Monday. Imagine if the US guys had this range of decisions to make. Not just two parties to chose from but 5. The possible conspiracies increase exponentially.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 00:15)
@Blutarsky in 2000

EWP @22:46--Agree. That would explain the loss of
nerve of the US Congress. Perhaps they saw this
trend coming. Backlash in 2000? Very possible, if
things start unraveling. INMHO the socialist trends
virtually assure that. Plus, things seem to happen
so dreadfully fast these days!

(Mon Jun 02 1997 00:17)
Right as usual Earl! Our Stanley Cup Hockey Championships, ( yours now also as any great Canadian invention always gets stolen by the big guys to the south! ) , even take longer than our national election campaigns. But of course that's to be expected. They're more exciting, more hard fought and more important!

(Mon Jun 02 1997 00:30)
@adding a thought or 2
George S. Cole- Have been agreeing with you for some time, however in checking my long term work, which I've had to extend into the future more than once,it now says to me, the turnaround is at hand and late summer early fall is the 1st target, with the next larger top in the spring of '98.

Ted Butler, liked your silver article, at the Gold Eagle, however here too, I would like to add a thought, which has been on my mind for some time.Everyone seems to be enamoured with the manipulation theory of CBs and R. Rubin and Greenspan. I believe that the real culprit it the rediculous spending spree we've been on for over a half century, and that the CBs and treasurers, of the western spending nations, are all in the same boat, and that is, looking for a solution to solve their common problem ( the immense debt each has ) .

Having found lending their stockpiles, of precious metals out, and possibly the derivative market's uses, have delayed the innevitalbe for them, and that's why the pressure is starting to build up. When you look at long term gold charts you will see many interesting patterns that look like gigantic bases, building over long periods.
Should you wish to peek into the future, as we all seem to like to do, we see a very large and extended up- swing for the future. The final top of which cannot be calculated, but believe me it'll be high.

Past moves in gold were 6-8 fold, the base now is much larger, and 10 plus is not unreasonable, especially given the fundamentals we've all been speaking and writing about.

Thanks to Bart and all those participating, each with their knowledge, insight and experience, we have and will continue to benefit. Hopefully some of the old timers will eventually return home to us.

One final thought, long term cyclical moves also hint to us what we all know must come, inflation, depression and commodities, especially precious metals, going in the opposite direction. We've seen it all before. Ain't othing new under the sun. ( this borrowed! )

(Mon Jun 02 1997 00:31)
@New England
EWP: YOU were not listening I am talking about the people paying NOW getting their benefits they have paid for. I know current retirees receive more than they put in but thats inflation. The country has benefited from reduced borrowing by the SS and Medicare trust fund raids costs so a very broad based tax should be instituted so the hard working people of today are not ripped off. They should also stop using the surplus now as the Democrats have suggested and Republicans have opposed. The crap about burdening future workers is just that, Stop borrowing now and institute a very broad based tax to ensure the current workers receive the benefits they are morally entitled to because of their past/future and ongoing contributions to the system.

Apparently you think it is ok to rob those who have already and continue to pay into the system. If America adopts your policies who knows how far to the left we will go. Conservatives lose hands down on EARNED ENTITLEMENTS. The French people pay taxes for their benefits and they dont want them cut as per election results. The same will happen here when they try a SS and Medicare ripoff AND people feel the effects then bye bye conservatism.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 00:36)
Auric: Second that. Sen. Blutarsky 2000! Can he do me a favor ( use his power of persuasion ) and get all those stinking lawyers ( and Geraldo and Charles Grodin too ) off of CNBC?! They are really messing up that channel and they make me sick! There is nothing else interesting to watch on TV ( investment or economic wise ) . Nite all.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 00:38)

EWP: SS should have been started as a non or limited
withdrawal savings plan and without any of it getting
into the hands of the politicians. Perhaps after the
contributors becoming financially educated, about 20%
could have been allowed for stock investments.
Now with the market at 7000+++, they talk about it????
Someone is now being led to slaughter and its the middle
Best that the government buys new gold and that new gold
be used to slowly extinguish Social Security as it now
exists and keep IRA's with limits on stock investments.
As for medical insurance my physician warned me, years
ago, that with medical insurance -public or private- that
cost would skyrocket. He was right on, sorry to say.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 00:40)
WW: Yes I was. You just have venal concerns that will continue to pass the bill to generations that follow you. Go lick some envelope for Gephardt 2000. I hope he is the DNC candidate in 2000! If people are stupid enough to vote for socialism in the U.S., I guess they deserve it.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 00:43)
to Jack: agree ... Soc. Sec. is not a pension ... evolved into a ponzi scheme ... should have been a defined contribution plan instead of a defined benefit plan ( the future is being railroaded and very few seem to care ) .

(Mon Jun 02 1997 00:44)
downhill from here
After watching the manner in which palladium and platinum fell out of bed Friday and gold and silver's inability to sustain a minor rally, I fear that we are in for a bad week .... unless you are buying XAU puts. Most funds are well off their recent lows so they have a ways to go to hit support. Will XAU go under 100? If yes, how far?

(Mon Jun 02 1997 00:49)
@the market
When talking of the possible future 'prices' of the metals, I really have a hard time equating them to past performance. Back 'then', we didn't have the derivatives like we do now. Also didn't have the supply imbalances building as we do now. Also didn't have 75% of our bond purchases being done by foreigners. I.E., nothing in the past even approaches the problems facing this currency now. If this currency actually tanks, gold could wind up going SO high that one could actually buy a good suit for an ounce of it! 'Course, it might also take $10,000 dollars to do the same! Or $10,000,000! To preserve your wealth is the name of this game! It also means having it in hand!

(Mon Jun 02 1997 00:52)
@New England
EWP: Then you support the ongoing theft from the trust funds and a very broad based tax which would maintain the viability of the system without raising payroll taxes on future generations. If that is Socialism the I guess I am a Socialist. I would more like to think of it as preventing theft. Just as rich people decry estate taxes as the earned the wealth /so have the workers earned the money put into the SS and Medi Trust funds which have been and continue to be raided. If we dont pay SS and Medi then why not a 100% estate tax/ whats the difference/ just two different forms of taking earned property from those who earned it.

Further EWP I cant find any of our Conservative Canadian friends willing to give up their National Health Care System for the US private system. Sorry, My friend the facts speak for themselves. You are out on the extreme.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 00:53)
ELDO: re your 23:28 Gold is THE political metal ( which has been artificially kept down for ( how long ) ) ...Platinum has not. IMHO $1000.00 gold may be cheap in the next century. As Cherokee often states, "every action contains an equal and OPPOSITE reaction." 'Course, I could be wrong.....but I'm putting my money where my mouth is. ( as we all do, of course )

(Mon Jun 02 1997 00:57)
I believe George Cole mentioned it, but the lean toward the right began somewhere around 1979 with Thatcher ( probable due to, but at least coinciding with the big rise in gold and the lack of confidence in existing left leaning govts ) . Now that currencies are relatively stable, the populace can't remember 18 years back and leaning back to the left is considered the thing to do.

Since I can't affect the output of any election, particularly France, I prefer to make the most of the current situation. I analyze the world attitude to be that a lean to the left is what is needed and therefore, expect to see many more policies which will plunge the world in general, and Europe in particular into an inflationary, debasement of currencies. We have nearly reached the reverse of the gold peakand we will shortly see a bottom in metals which we will never see again.

But not next week.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 01:08)
@the scene
I might also add that if this currency tanks, we all won't have to worry about Social Security or Medicare anymore! I believe the whole argument will become mute, just as government funding of anything will become! The only recourse the government will have is to default on its paper debt and re-implement gold and silver currency as the only legal tender. That will be the only way it could even begin to regain 'credibility' with the people and with other nations! As for those who are left holding the bag? ah well! They should have known better! It's not like there hasn't been plenty of warning. No different than anyone else investing in anything else.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 01:11)
@Oh! America!

Bob @ 23:00-- The exact same thing also can be
applied to US politicians. Maddening, ain't it?
EWP: I will use my connections with the good
Senator to see what I can do!

(Mon Jun 02 1997 01:13)
Mooney: Case in point. May I offer WW @00:32. An otherwise astute gentleman who has much to offer on markets. The arithmetic seems to work just fine when applied to a market problem. But somehow the pencil always breaks or blunts when the issue at hand is a weepy political issue. There must be a vaccine against such drivel. .... I know, the Chinese bought up the entire supply and are waiting patiently for the US to destroy itself in internecine warfare.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 01:16)
ELDO: And when they reinstitute gold backed e-currency, what MUST the price of gold be? And, won't the price be run up before the fact? I don't know WHEN gold is going to skyrocket; I just plan to be in the market when it does.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 01:22)
@the scene
Savage -- Wrong question. It's not what the 'price' of the metal will be. Rather, the question will be what is the value of the buck then? And granted, there will more than likely be a runup in the 'price' of gold first. Well, maybe. Only if a 'bump' in the middle of the night isn't heard first.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 01:26)
While I'm at it
I question your statement that the SS trust fund is being raided. Actually, I don't question it very much.

It is my understanding that the money collected for the trust fund is rapidly spent as it comes in. I don't argue over that.

I also agree that the excess funds left over after paying SS entitlements/payments, goes to help pay other federal expenses. The trust fund therefore receives an IOU from the US govt, which I have been told collects interest, just like a T-bill.

In other words, the SS trust fund is full of IOU's collecting interest. If the original collections were not spent, what do you recommend we do with all that cash? I think it would be spent investing in the safest and conservative investment around, U.S. T-bills. That way the trust fund would actually increase in value, waiting for that day around 2005 when collections become negative.

I suggest to you that the IOU's being held are equivalent in all respects to any other U.S. govt obligation, and will be honored. If not, then the other U.S. debts would be in doubt, and the feds cannot afford to allow that kind of thinking. In other words, the IOU's have value and collect interest. ( If I am wrong in this, then this is legalized embezzlement )

The only difference is that the IOU's are not measured as part of each year's annual deficit, but that is a political decision, not a financial one. I believe that they are considered as part of the increasing debt, however.

Of course, the future will hold a time when the regular federal taxes will have to pay back the IOU's to the trust fund just like a car loan, and the future taxpayers will be upset at paying to cover that debt. That is, and will not be, the fault of future SS recipients receiving their fair share. It will be the fault of today's politicians.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 01:28)
WW, but thats inflation__you said it

WW: Have you ever considered prices 30 years ago and
prices today. NOW THATS INFLATION. Why should they be
ten times higher, advancements? Nah its probably gold.
It was no excuse to raid the Ponzi SS system -the sitting
duck- in the first place, but they did -no problemmo.
And I add, to have it pay for the power trips that vote
loving politicians of all persuations cherish. Gez, I
ain't no historian, but mimmicks the fall of the Roman

(Mon Jun 02 1997 01:28)
@ T.B. & Poster
Ted B. Great post on Silver at Gold Eagle.. Fits my thoughts to a T..

Poster 2323.. Your 23:38..Good point.. The "New Order" people are sharp and plans are in place.. Hang on for a KEEL HAUL.. g'nite

(Mon Jun 02 1997 01:28)
@the market
Looky looky you grain buyers. EBN shows corn up 2.25!

(Mon Jun 02 1997 01:29)
WW: Forgive me for taking a jaded or cynical view here but I must ask the question. Does your law practice depend, in some material fashion, on work derived from SS or other government programs? A lawyer who expresses such concern for the downtrodden must have some well connected financial fish to be fried. These unrelenting expressions of outrage over the actions of democratic congressional majorities, raiding trust funds for decades, must be more than a pro bono expression. BTW, The repubs would be equally culpable except they are too stupid to tie their own shoe laces. My goodness. Either, sue, settle or find a new client.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 01:32)
memory lane
Anybody remember when a pundit asked Bobby Kennedy..."in this world of food shortages and overpopulation, Senator, what justifies you having 12 children?"......Kennedy's reply, "I can afford 'em."....No Kennedy need worry about social security or medicare....I submit gentlemen, we need to be ready for a day of unrest and perhaps worse. We can do that of course by our faith ( s ) , but also ( for our families ) to have our financial houses in order and posited on the most substantial base that we can find.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 01:40)
@the scene
Earl -- As the poor shall always be with us, we shall also be doomed to suffer with socialists.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 01:48)
Savage: Not to worry. Given their historic fecundity and a pronounced proclivity for exploiting same, we may rest assured that the expansion of the Kennedy genetic pool will someday soon outstrip old Joe's endowment. A few more lawsuits will only hasten the process. ...... Shirt sleeves to shirt sleeves - in three generations. .... As Limbaugh has been fond of saying: " The problem with the Kennedys is in their genes ( jeans ) . They can't keep 'em on".

(Mon Jun 02 1997 01:50)
French elections near final results : The socialist party and its allied ( ecologists,... ) have not the majority of seats . They will need the Communist party to obtain that majority.Ok the socialists are pro-EMU but the communists are against EMU.Expect Paris Stock Exchange going down today !

(Mon Jun 02 1997 01:52)
@not the CIA etc
EWP: You can rest assured that "Anthrax" is NOT a journalist, nor with the CIA. She is a concerned citizen of the world, who is providing you with interesting web links for you to be aware, & prepared. If nothing occurs, that is fantastic. If it does....well you have been warned. My view is the more information the community has, the better prepared it will be. Also, if the Arabs wake up that the USA knows, they may not go ahead with the threat! Ever thought of that... SPEED??!!!

(Mon Jun 02 1997 01:57)
ANTHRAS or ANTHRAX: What are YOU doing to be prepared?

(Mon Jun 02 1997 01:59)
Eldo: I wouldn't mind except its an incestuous relationship. The poor and those who would pander to their needs - let us call them social activists - breed each other. The Poverty Programs are the most successful of any in our history. They have created and maintained the greatest levels of poverty in our history. Therefore they are successful. Eh? .... and of course we do need more administrators to feed off the suffering of these poverty stricken wretches. .... It is an infinite source of humor. Not the poverty but the rhetoric that surrounds it. If it did not enrich those with a social conscience, it would be even more amuzing. As it is, we must content our selves with mere humor. Speaking of humor, where is that guy Paul from last nite. The one whose list of metaphors is restricted to body openings.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 02:04)
EARL: I don't think that guy last night liked you. Had you eaten onions or something offensive for supper?.....and oh yes, buy gold.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 02:05)
@the scene
Earl -- Well, they certainly have made more people poor in this country! First by taking more taxes from those who work and put food in their own families' mouths, and then by perpetuating the conditions on those who are on welfare. What a rip!

(Mon Jun 02 1997 02:06)
notation 2
EARL: That was not your subconcious; it were I. ( trying to be funny )

(Mon Jun 02 1997 02:13)
I wish there were a way you could just hit a button and bring up subsequent comments without downloading the whole days worth. Is there a way BART?

(Mon Jun 02 1997 02:14)
Is there an echo here?: Had Paul known me personally, perhaps his choice of metaphors would have been entirely warranted but under these circumstances, hardly fitting for an exchange of views. Pesonal attacks, name calling and inappropriate metaphorical representations are never in season. IMO. ie, never confuse message and messenger.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 02:19)
Savage: Sorry. I must develop a thicker skin. I fear I'm far too sensitive for this line of work. ..... :- ) )

Steve (Perth - Western Australia)
(Mon Jun 02 1997 02:19)
It seems we are now into showing off our tourist photo's now! Well, for a great start to the week, check out Western Australia's beautiful rugged scenery:
Also, check out the tourist site.
You can touch WILD Dolphins at "Monkey Mia", Denham. ( Shark Bay )

(Mon Jun 02 1997 02:21)
@Legal Tenderness

Larry @ 01:26--Good points. Only three ways out of
the SS IOU's, at least that I can see. Cut
benefits-not bloody likely, look at France. Raise
the taxes to pay for it--Already paying about 16%
thats on top of Fed, State, Sales, Medicare etc.
Or..debase the currency. The scary thing is, the SS
situation is just one of many IOU's. These bills, as
you point out MUST be paid. I cannot see any way out
except to inflate, and then deal with the fiasco
that will result. Default is not an option.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 02:23)
@making sure you are alert
I put "Anthras" in to make sure you picked it up! Oh well, at least you will be aware of any biological warfare possibilities if the Arabs go ahead with it.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 02:31)
@the scene
Auric -- Actually, massive inflation is just about the same as outright default. The difference is minor. In the first case, you get paid in massively devalued dollars. In the second case, you may not get paid, or if you do, it's pennys or parts of pennys on the buck. Purchasing power per buck might essentially be near the same; I.E., next to nothing. Much of the difference will be in how much inflation there will be, and how the debt purchasers will view the 'scenario'! Comments?

(Mon Jun 02 1997 02:31)
'Nite Earl, Eldo, Anthy, et al

(Mon Jun 02 1997 02:35)
Auric: Any talk of making good on the trust funds is ultimately just that. Talk and nothing more. NO one will pay the taxes and increases in national productivity will never be high enough to remotely pick up the slack. In the end the trust funds will be just like all other govt promises. Broken. Perhaps then, folks will realize that it is far better to trust in yourself than your govt. Tough way to learn the lesson. .... but since I am nearing the age of entitlement, I find your views to have an endearing quality about them. ...... :- ) )

Pepino di Cortino
(Mon Jun 02 1997 02:40)
From Italia

You Guysa, you no never speeka about "La Bella Italia".
We foola you, we all have a bunch of how you say, the
money, becausa we no pay the taxes and makea our own
All that I can reada here is about the Tedeschi, da
Frencha and the USA, and da colda place bei the US., and
da gold compani who lose the money, becausa they use to
mucha the salt.
Never, I hear abouta my Italia.
Den you hava da guy who calla himself WW. We no worry
about the Social Security likea him in Italia, we go back
to the MAMA and she giva us da raviolli, the spaghetti
and we drinka the vino and then become very happy.
Ima giva you all the invitazione to come to my pease in
the Dolomiti, so we can shoota the baloney over the gold
and chase the signoreigna's.
VIVA ITALIA an how you say, da bye.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 02:43)
@the scene
Auric -- I should add one more difference. Default would be an occurrance that would happen overnight whereas massive inflation would maybe allow them to continue the game for awhile longer. The end result would be the same: a collapsed/worthless currency.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 02:49)
@the scene
Our currency is 'backed' by the full faith and credit of the government. Anybody have any idea how much faith and/or credit is left?

(Mon Jun 02 1997 02:51) Italia !
Pepino di Cortino: tu famalia con Pepino Sudecello ? Conusco la sudecello sempre vida a' Ed Sullivan Show vengo trente anna ja ?


(Mon Jun 02 1997 02:52)
At this juncture, I'm calling it a night. BBL.

Steve (Perth - Western Australia)
(Mon Jun 02 1997 02:54)
More on that Australian Gold Article...

(Mon Jun 02 1997 03:08)
@...History in the making
At this time in US history evey hooker and lap dancer across this great continent is trying to figure out how Paula Jones is worth $700k for a
'blo' job she didn't give. O.K. boys, let's hear it one mo' time ..."Glory glory allejuela..and the band kept marching on !"


(Mon Jun 02 1997 03:11)

(Mon Jun 02 1997 03:15)
Pepino: Your gracious invitation is accepted on two conditions:
1. The ladies are pursued before the vino. I'm an old guy you know.
2. The invitation must include an endearing fellow from the Pyrenees. His name is Bernatz. He would add a dash of color to the proceedings.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 03:17)
@Getting Hyper

Earl, Eldorado: My take on default vs. inflation.
In an inflationary environment, in the initial
stages, at least, debt promises are honored, albeit
with debased dollars. Inflation has an insidious way
of getting out of control, and at some point,
crosses the line into hyperinflation. In a
hyperinflationary environment, I agree, there is not
much difference between that and default. If the Fed
somehow manages to have avoid hyperinflation then we
might have a half way decent future, with less
currency debasement. If Greenspan can do that, then
we should rename him Houdini! You certainly are
correct, what with derivatives, oil shocks, war,
etc., out there, the potential for massive, sudden
collapse is there. Either way, it makes good sense
to be as independent of Gov't promises as possible.
As our buddy Paul says, "Buy Gold!" : )

(Mon Jun 02 1997 03:29)
@Getting ready for some shut-eye

.- ) Just poked myself in the eye! Get it?
( Had to lighten up after my last post! )

(Mon Jun 02 1997 03:33)
Blowing a few bucks

Bob @ 03:08-- 700K eh? Now THAT is hyperinflation!

Steve (Perth - Western Australia)
(Mon Jun 02 1997 03:45)
WW: Our unions in Australia are getting "clever". Hijack the Aussie Central Bank!
Interesting idea for US unions to take on the Fed!

(Mon Jun 02 1997 04:42)

Paris stocks off 2.4%

(Mon Jun 02 1997 06:20)
EBN Gold just went from down .80 to down .40 and Silver is up 3 cents as U.S. Dollar is strong against most other currencies.....with a noteable exception being the Pound Sterling and the Irish Punt....interesting....

(Mon Jun 02 1997 06:25)
MGraves: Yer seagull just landed....thanks...

George s. Cole
(Mon Jun 02 1997 06:42)
gold bull
Reify: Hope you are right that the turnaround is at hand, but I doubt it. Bullion's technical action remains very bad. Fair chance that $340 will be broken before the big bull begins. I do not expect bullion to begin a sustainable upmove until the stock market peaks for good -- give or take a few weeks. And my analysis indicates that the stock market will not peak until late summer.

Larry: You are correct -- there will be a considerable time lag between the new trend to the political left and its full impact on the gold price. Thatcher won in 1979 and Reagan in 1980, but the bull market in financial assets did not begin until August 1982.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 06:54)
EBN Gold+Silver headed in the right direction...Gold now down only .35 and Silver up 4 cents...Interesting article on the front page of The Wall Street Urinal about Socialists victory ( ? ) in France...
Socialists 275
Conservatives 247
Commies 39

(Mon Jun 02 1997 07:06)
@ Valley
Morn'in Ted : Voting day !!! I think I'll take my green pencil and give Presto - changeo a try !!! George s.Cole : I still think that the fund managers will drive the next correction. We just need a political trigger to get them started. Once this happens, it won't matter what the cb's or the emu do, the perception is all that's needed.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 07:10)
MGraves: Why NOT ALEXA???

(Mon Jun 02 1997 07:15)
George s. Cole: What makes you believe that gold will go under 340? I think this should better ot happen because with such a move gold would leave a widespread longterm-trendchannel.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 07:29)
@ Valley
Ted : Alex doesn't know what she's going to do, she just contradicts everyone else. Jean is a true politician , he talks out of the left side of his mouth and the man I call "Charades" looks like he just recieved a sex change. Presto's the man this year!!!

(Mon Jun 02 1997 07:30)
Joke of the morn
Gold and silver looked pretty sick on Friday. I think I agree with George S. Cole. This market is fairly flacid and could dip a bit yet. Good morning Ted, good to see you up and at them. Here's my paltry offering of tripe for the day.

A guy goes into a restaurant/lounge wearing a shirt open at the collar and is met by a bouncer who tells him he must wear a necktie to gain

So the guy goes out to his car and he looks around for a necktie and
discovers that he just doesn't have one. He sees a set of jumper cables in his trunk. In desperation he ties these around his neck, manages to
fashion a fairly acceptable looking knot and lets the ends dangle free. He goes back to the restaurant and the bouncer carefully looks him over for a few minutes and then says, "Well, OK, I guess you can come in - just don't start anything."

(Mon Jun 02 1997 07:37)
French CAC has totally turned around and is now up 8+...Friday is the "big one"...the employment report!...Tort: your missle just landed!

(Mon Jun 02 1997 07:45)
Tort: We missed ya buddy...good one!hahaha...Go ALEXA GO....TO HELL!.....
The Bretoners are probably rushin to cast their votes for the "freebie" party also known as the NDP...What can you GIVE us....YOU owe US...WE have the right to put food on the table......It's time to put the "small guy" before the large corporations....The whinning drivel goes on and on and on....

Bernatz de ventadorn
(Mon Jun 02 1997 07:51)
For Monsiour Earl.
Ah appreciate your support vairy much. Ah would
adore to go to zee pairtie of monsiour Peppino. Also
ah find zat he speek zee engleesh pairfectment. Ah
love to leesten to heem. But pleeze, we must also
invite zee little monsiour wackair from zee varmint
region so zat we can be amused abd keel ourselves
laughing at hees crazee antics. Keep up zee good works.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 07:58)
EBN Gold down .35 and Silver up 3 cents...Off ta the woods!

George S. Cole
(Mon Jun 02 1997 08:04)
GERY: I'm not predicting a dip under $340; just observing that the technical action remains very poor. Unless this changes, a dip below $340 wouldn't surprise me. The oddds of such a drop are fifty-fifty in my opinion.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 08:05)
check your e mail....thanks
MORNING TO YOU !please check your mail box!
looooooong nite......can"t wait!
happy trading,good luck!

(Mon Jun 02 1997 09:47)
Internets favorite economist, George S. Cole, sees DOW peaking in late summer - anticipates beginning of secular gold bull in same period. See Coles Market Insights - YOU MUST RELOAD:

(Mon Jun 02 1997 10:20)
FWIW,looking at the platinum weekly,we should test the 375.This could
bring gold down to the 330 level and silver to the 4.30 / 4.40.
This could be the best opportunity of the year.

Bob A
(Mon Jun 02 1997 10:31)
I've read that Germany is considering a revaluation of their gold reserves. Can anyone explain to me how this is done, what benchmark could they use other than the market price? do they simply value at the free mkt price?

(Mon Jun 02 1997 10:35)

Canadians :


Liberals = 155
Reform = 78
PC = 19
Block = 38
NDP = 11

Anyone else?


(Mon Jun 02 1997 10:49)
@the market
cyclist -- You could be right, but on the other hand, gold and silver didn't go up with the P metals so it could be just as likely that they won't go down with them. Especially to that extent. But I certainly agree that if those kind of prices are seen, it'll certainly make a ver very nice buying opportunity!

(Mon Jun 02 1997 11:25)
The brokers comment the other day that the CBs have a standing sell order of $355/oz. seemed to confirm what we already suspected. My question is, could the CBs become motivated to lower the sell price, and what would motivate then to do so. Also conversely what would motivate them to raise the standing sell price. It just seems to me that eventually everyone is going to realize that gold is being held at an artificially low price and that this presents a historical buying opportunity. Accumulate and hold the physical!

(Mon Jun 02 1997 11:29)
As a would-be gentleman I prefer gentle phrasings over the coarse and crude utterings of the street. As such, "kiss and caress" is one of the nicest euphemisms I've encountered. Thanks. And I am speaking as one who has been getting "kissed and caressed" by the gold market here lately.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 11:50)
George Cole: So far it looks like another day in support of your thesis. The dollar is up, across the board. Precious metals down, across the board. Gold is threatening the lower side of its short term channel. And there is no relief in sight. It really is difficult to build a case for gold remaining above 340 - short term. Certainly not on a technical basis. ..... The only positive indicator for gold is that the momentum has been rising progressively higher in recent weeks. Hardly compelling.

On the general market; Oldman has said that the final top in general equities will be marked by a divergence between price and momentum. It is happening now. For the past several weeks, prices have been rising and yet momentum has been declining. If he is correct the end may be approaching.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 11:59)
@EMU down the tubes?
Well, now we know: should the EMU collapse, the flight to quality will be in the US Dolllar, not the precious metals

(Mon Jun 02 1997 12:02)
Thanks 2 weeks
Thanks 2 weeks. Sometimes a joke is basically gross but funny. If it can be salvaged I will do so. Otherwise I'm not going to post stuff I feel is gross or offensive because I think the people on this site are classy people who don't need R+ or X rated stuff thrown at them.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 12:03)
SILVER: An enigma wrapped in an anomaly. Analyst Butlers 5/29/97 insightful study is a necessary read by all. See Guest Guru Ted Butler - CLICK RELOAD in Gold Digest page:

Short Bull
(Mon Jun 02 1997 12:07)
@Noon e.t.
The stock market made a nice follow-through high on the opening which
was a fabulous sell back to unchanged. I never tried that but I did
buy the dip. I caught a $300 move in a mini-value line, looking for a
noon dip to maybe try it from the long side again from lower prices.
Platinum is off its lows. Silver is up, like it often does after a big
sell-off. I am looking to buy silver today for a scalp if I can get it
around unchanged.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 12:08)
To all!
Did you realize that the spot-gold-prize is developing a short-term-Triangle combined with bullish divergences in almost all long- and midterm indicators. From my point of view it's almost sure that we'll see higher gold prices in the next few weeks. What amuses me is that just one week ago almost everone here was bullish now sentiment turned rapidly. It's not realy clever to believe that gold or the other metalls will immediatly react to political and economic situations like the french elections or the german gold-discussion.
Hope I'm right

(Mon Jun 02 1997 12:13)
bull market
Eldorado:If platinum can take out the 420 area in the next 4 weeks,we got ourselves a bullmarket in the precious metal confirmed.It is hard to make
a timing judgement with gold ( free market mechanism is being surpressed ) .
Platinum buy and sell signals are excellent in buying and selling abx.
BTW Platinum upmove could be to the 450 area.On the chart silver looks sick.

George s. Cole
(Mon Jun 02 1997 12:19)
gold action
Earl; Could elaborate further on price/momentum gap you see developing in the overall market? Exactly how do you define momentum.

Gold's dismal action action today does not surprise me. The yellow metal will not move in a major until the smart money concludes that the financial bull has gone as far as it possibly can. Only then will there be enough INVESTMENT DEMAND ( as opposed to short-covering purchases ) to send the yellow stuff sharply higher despite western CB selling.

On a more pleasant note, the small caps continue to act very well. Looks like they can go quite a bit higher before the market peaks this summer.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 12:33)
Bob A.- the plan is to mark to 60% of market value. Marking to market would leave their reserve base vulnerable to a drop in the price of gold.

Gery- Can you elaborate for us on the bullish divergences you see? Sounds very interesting. thanks

(Mon Jun 02 1997 12:39)
Re: Bob... Paula
They say the oj trail was worth many hundreds of millions to the us economy. Can you imagine the potential for the Paula Jones action? Its got to be billions, if handled correctly. I would start by televising the discovery process. My lawyer friends tell me all of bill's past sex life is fair game for discovery. Since that includes every day of his life you can see the potential. Perhaps we could have multiple channels to handle the volume. Now as you know bill is rumored to have mixed sex and drugs quite frequently. Does this open up his drug use to discovery? Well you can see where this line leads. Seriously bill's true genius has been somehow evading any indepth questioning of his many crimes. I would not doubt he will evade the truth once again. But perhaps not.

Bob A
(Mon Jun 02 1997 12:48)
Thanks for the explanation.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 13:23)
@the market
The grains are looking weaker than they did Friday though corn hasn't proven it yet. But if you see anything lees than 271.5 July corn, it'll probably mean it.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 13:32)

ok, where are the pertinent links you alluded to.
knowledge is power, and this is a place of power.

ted-- quit abusing the seagull guano.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 13:50)
@the market
Kind of curious as to whether August gold will see 348.50 or 344.5 today. Ideas?

(Mon Jun 02 1997 13:59)
Here is the AP article that had references to Anthrax:

Associated Press Writer
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- At this moment, militant Islamic groups labeled by
the State Department as terrorist organizations -- Hezbollah, Palestine
Islamic Jihad,
Hamas and others -- operate quietly within U.S. borders from New York
to San Diego.
These groups collect U.S. dollars to send to their cells overseas.
They have used U.S. addresses to buy U.S. equipment, U.S. Internet
sites to communicate
and U.S. universities and foundations to meet and plan.
"Almost every one of these groups has a presence in the United
States today," says John O'Neill, who headed the FBI's
counter-terrorism unit until last ye
ar and now heads those efforts for the FBI in New York. "A lot of these
groups now have the capability and the support infrastructure in the
United States to
attack us here if they choose to."
The United States -- seen as the Great Satan by many Islamic
radicals -- has become a key part of their terrorist network.
Bitter Middle East rivalries of Sunni vs. Shiite and Iranians vs.
Arabs have eased into America's melting pot. And from this melding
arises a web of shift
ing alliances, faceless killers, money men and transient bases.
The issue is a difficult one for law enforcement officials and
lawmakers. Nearly all of this nation's estimated 6 million Muslims are
law-abiding citizens
, many seeking the American Dream.
"There are fanatics in every religion and as long as they do not
carry their fanaticism to a terrorist act, there is nothing wrong in
their beliefs," says
Seif Ashmawy, the Egyptian-American publisher of the Voice of Peace, a
monthly publication on Muslim issues.
"But there is a very small minority that wish to impose their ideas
by force. Those are the people we should worry about."
Take this scenario:
A Hezbollah terrorist tapes a lightbulb to the track of a New York
City subway station. Minutes later, a passing train smashes the bulb,
releasing spores
of anthrax, one of the deadliest toxins known to humanity.
Within hours, subway ventilation fans have circulated the poison
throughout the system, and people begin dying -- perhaps 100,000,
perhaps more.
"The death toll would be horrific. You could cripple the country,"
says Pentagon analyst Peter Probst, whose classified report "Terror
2000" identifies th
is and similar scenarios. "And you can't bury the victims. You have to
burn them. There would be funeral pyres throughout the city."
A terrorist attack with anthrax -- or Sarin gas, or a World Trade
Center-style bomb "dirtied" with enough nuclear material to make parts
of the city uninh
abitable -- is almost inevitable, a 1996 Senate report warned.
Defense Secretary William Cohen said much the same at a conference
on terrorism last month.
"This scenario of a nuclear, biological or chemical weapon in the
hands of a terrorist cell or rogue nation is not only plausible, it's
really quite real,
" he warned.
The United States already has seen such work -- the 1993 World Trade
Center bombing that killed six and injured 1,000. The group included
Islamic radicals
from Palestine, Sudan and Egypt as well as U.S. converts.
The same group had planned to bomb other New York City landmarks.
The alleged bomb-builder, the mysterious Ramzi Yousef, plotted to blow
up a dozen U.S. a
irliners in a single day -- and practiced in the Philippines with a
nitroglycerine charge that killed an airline passenger.
In Saudi Arabia, the FBI is still trying to unravel the possible
alliance of Iran, Shiite Hezbollah, militant Sunni radicals and the
world's leading finan
cier of terror, Osama bin Laden, in two bombings that killed 24 U.S.
soldiers and two Indians.
Here in the United States, authorities fret about "sleeper cells" of
Hezbollah terrorists awaiting orders from Tehran, or zealots acting on
the influence
of Sheik Omar Abdel-Rahman, the blind Egyptian cleric and religious
leader to World Trade Center conspirators.
Rahman still exhorts followers -- now from a federal prison.
U.S.-based Hamas activists arrested in Israel told their
interrogators they had shadowed prominent Jews in the Chicago area.
Such terrorists "are expanding their networks, improving their
skills and sophistication, and working to stage more spectacular
attacks," warns acting CIA
Director George Tenet.
To stage attacks in the United States and elsewhere, Islamic
extremists are making full use of U.S. banks, telecommunications and
freedom of assembly.
--Cash. In January 1995, President Clinton froze $800,000 held in
accounts the government said were controlled by terrorist groups. Most
experts believe t
hat is only a drop in the bucket.
Israel accuses Virginia businessman Mousa Abu Marzook, whom U.S.
authorities expelled to Jordan this month, of financing Hamas terrorist
cells. An FBI age
nt testified that millions of dollars passed through Marzook's
Coupon and food stamp fraud by a World Trade Center bomber, the Abu
Nidal group and others allegedly sent as much as $100 million to the
Middle East. Hero
in trafficking in the United States has partly financed the world's
deadliest terrorist group, the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK.
A network of U.S.-based Islamic foundations is under investigation
by the U.S. Customs Service to determine if they passed money to Middle
East terrorists.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 14:00)
XAU down 1.10....Cherokee: Will do Bro!....Just back from 5 hours of chainsawin in the woods and got my first Black Fly bite of the year...must have been a scout...could the troops be far behind? Comex Gold down .70 ( not bad considering the strength of the dollar ) but Platinum down 3.20 and Palladium down 4.85...good old profit takin....

(Mon Jun 02 1997 14:25)
@ The Public Library
TVX Gold, Inc. has already traded 1,336,600 million shares -1/8. No news. Anybody have any info why such a high volumn?

(Mon Jun 02 1997 14:56)
George Cole: I was judging by a simple momentum indicator in my real time software. Later today I'll post a Dow or SP chart from another source.... The problem is my real time software is DOS based so the only way I can post a chart from it by printing and scanning. ....

Have also been thinking about your continuing thread on worldwide changes in political philosophy. I think you are absolutely correct. For very real human reasons. ... Will respond on both later. BBL

(Mon Jun 02 1997 15:06)


Every time I read your messages, they say to "RELOAD" ......

Since we now have a strict gun control law in Canada, does that mean that you're support REFORM and the gun lobby? I'll be glad to vote twice if that'll help change things a bit !


(Mon Jun 02 1997 15:32)
JIN: The mailman is knocking at your door!...How will Asia ever be able to compete against the Socialists in Europe...HAHAHAHA...

George s. Cole
(Mon Jun 02 1997 15:57)
small caps
Earl: The big cap stocks are indeed losing momentum, but the small cap stocks are gaining momentum. I don't think this market will peak until the small caps have gone up a lot more.

CNBC reported today that Goldman Sachs guru Abbey Cohen reiterated her bullish stance re: small cap stocks in a conference call this morning.

I still say that gold will be the very last thing to move; probably this summer. But once it gets going we will all be astounded at how high it ultimately climbs.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 16:17)
Is there a skunk on the internet or do the gold, silver and platinum markets just stink to high heaven?

(Mon Jun 02 1997 16:22)
Tort: Do I detect a hint of negativism in yer tone??? You should have been in Oil Service stocks today!...XAU @101.75 down 2.56...

(Mon Jun 02 1997 16:24)
Joke for the afternoon
Ted, to show you I am not a bad sport about losing money, I am going to post the following and then get back to amending this trust which is trying my powers of draftmanship.

When Albert Einstein died, he met three New Zealanders in the queue outside the Pearly Gates. To pass the time, he asked what were their IQs. The first replied 190. "Wonderful," exclaimed Einstein. "We can discuss the contribution made by Ernest Rutherford to atomic physics and my theory of general relativity". The second answered 150. "Good," said Einstein. "I look forward to discussing the role of New Zealand's nuclear-free legislation in the quest for world peace". The third New Zealander mumbled 50. Einstein paused, and then asked, "So what is your
forecast for the budget deficit and the prime interest rate for next year?"

(Mon Jun 02 1997 16:27)
Front: Here's my guess
Liberals 168
Reform 62
Block 48
PC 15

(Mon Jun 02 1997 16:41)
Tort: Once again you have brought some levity to a GRIM situation..Bravo Tort!...Too bad OJ couldn't have gotten the same jury as McVeigh...Hang em the same time on network TV...Think of the ratings they'd get ....GO JAZZ....

(Mon Jun 02 1997 16:50)
Comex Gold down 1.20 is not bad considering dollar strength...but can't say the same about the XAU...The German Mark was down against almost all other currencies and took the biggest hit of all the European countries..Thank you France.....The NDP is going to REVIVE the fishing industry...HAHAHA...and the Cape Breton coal ( high Sulfer ) industry..HE HAW

(Mon Jun 02 1997 16:56)
Telecaster: If you have any programm for technical analyzing draw
the goldprice from 1991 to today. Now attach a 28-days-RSI or a 45-days-momentum. You'll find that the during the last two downmoves to the 340-level ( last weeks ) the indicator didn't come down together with the price, in the same time it's developing a triangle, that indicates we'll see an outbreak 'til the end of june the latest. The direction of this outbreak will tell us where gold is heading to - the bullish divergence ( you can see many of them at every chart but thisone is very clear ) improves the chances that we see an upmove to 75:25 as I understand it.
PS: If have no charting program send me your email-adress to and I'll send you my latest analysis tomorrow ( Its 11 pm now at my place and I'm still in the office ) .

George s. Cole
(Mon Jun 02 1997 16:57)
Fidelity gold funds held up very well today considering steep slide in XAU and HUI. FSAGX down about 0.7% and FSPMX off about 0.4%. XAU plunged 2.5% and HUI 1.7%.

Russell 2000 jumped nearly 0.7% today despite 40 point drop in the Dow.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 16:59)
Be prepared - It now looks like the XAU could hit the 97 objective this week ( 5/12 21:28 ) ( 5/30 21:12 ) . Over the last 7 years, the Xau has been down 5 of those years between the Fri before Memorial Day and the second Fri after memorial Day. Four of those years the XAU was down between 7-11 points. This year 10 points down from the Fri before Memorial Day would put it at the 97 area. From the recent highs we have done an A wave and a B wave we are now in wave C, if A=C which is common C will end near 97. A Gann line off the recent lows comes in this week at the 97 area. When the market hits 97 which could be intra day a good low risk entry for options, stocks and gold mutual funds will be at hand. Be prepared. I bought xau puts this morning.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 17:08)
@Gallows humor

Ted; Re OJ: That would be a limit down move!

(Mon Jun 02 1997 17:13)
ALL.....Have been AWOL since Sat...... If I missed any posts for me, please let me know....APH..That is the level on the XAU that I am looking to get in on....SHORT BULL...Much better..THANKS....Doggone it....I am looking to add levereged paper and also going out of town for a couple of weeks....As you know, those two don't go together....Anybody use those little portable quote machines ????If so, which ones and how do you like them....

(Mon Jun 02 1997 17:42)
Up for Air
I'm up for air. George S. Cole, is the Russell 2000 an index of Small Cap stocks? I confess more total ignorance here. The verdict for McVey was better than he deserved. He should be put in front of a firing squad and then have the firing squad graze him a few times before going for the gusto.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 17:59)
another race
Tort, Ted: let's hang both McVey and Paul Berardo in a single event. We'll see who pulls up lame... Tort: liked the afternoon joke. needed that.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 18:07)
Gold Found!
Greetings to all....Just took a hike on the Yuba River, Northern CA, beautiful day. Decided if I can not make money trading gold, I will try my hand at panning for some. I found gold! By my calculation if I spend an additional 600 hours on the river breaking my back, I will have one ( 1 ) ounce of gold! Well, it was a nice day anyway.

George S. Cole
(Mon Jun 02 1997 18:17)
Russell 2000
Tortfeasor: The Russell 2000 is the most widely followed small stock index. After many months of dismal performance it has taken off with great force. I can see it going up another 15 or 20% in the next few months.

Of course, this pales compared with what the gold stocks will do when the time is right. The 1993 bull move will be greatly outpaced as many issues triple or quadruple.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 18:41)
APH: re your 16:59...what kind of XAU puts did you buy?...Deep in the the the 97 level? Will you reverse these or sell? ( one of my favorite strategies is to reverse a put at a turnaround....then, the future is no risk )

(Mon Jun 02 1997 18:59)
Gold will reach $872.00 BY first week of July, 1998. Remmember this.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 19:03)
Auric ( 17:08 ) Yer damn right it'd be limit down...Preacher ( 17:59 ) GOOD ONE!
While we're at it let's string up Johnny Cockroach,F.Lee Bailey, and Sharpero too.....

(Mon Jun 02 1997 19:09)
nailz @ 17:13 -- I've used a QuoTrek. The only requirement is that you get good reception at your location. If you don't have good reception, you'll drop ticks like crazy and you won't even know it! There is a reception indicator on the units. The quote info provided is; Bid, Ask, Bid size, Ask size, Trade size, Volume, Price change, High, and Low for the day. You can also get news services on the units such as FWN and Dow Jones. The only caveat is that you MUST have good reception! One draw back that comes to mind is that quotes are only updated as they happen. In other words, if you turn the unit on at 10:01 AM and your stock traded at 9:59 AM you wouldn't see it until the ticker loop 'cycled' through. Every time a trade happens, they interrupt the ticker loop for the new trade. The result is this. It takes them about 25 minutes to cycle all the stocks without any interruptions, with normal trading it can take up to 45 minutes to update an infrequently traded stock, unless it gets traded of course. If you happen to be watching an active stock or index, the unit will constantly be beeping at you. You can turn the beeper on or off. You also can set alerts based on volume or price. Hope I didn't confuse you too much!

(Mon Jun 02 1997 19:23)
To All:

The markets weighed in today with their appraisal of the chances for EMU. Contravening all rules of decency they did exactly the opposite of what I had expected. Biggest casualty, DM, biggest winner ( relatively ) Italian bonds. The thinking is something like this. Now that the French electorate has spoken all countries of the EU will be included in the first round of the glorious EMU regardless of their fiscal situation. The German people who have for centuries been subjugated under the thumb of the imperial French will once again bow, scrape and jetison their currency in favor of detente.

How could I have missed the obvious? How can I be so foolish as to sell another load of Italian bonds tomorrow? Perhaps it has something to do with the planets. Maybe someone in Italy has learned how to extract palladium from seawater. Yes, this would explain a lot....

I have had a bad day.

Tort: Could you perhaps supply a bit of humor? Maybe even a double?

(Mon Jun 02 1997 19:24)

Anybody out there know Deaner's Website ? I was using his XAU projections
with pretty decent results till my hard drive crashed and I lost all my
bookmarks. Lucky Kitco was one of the few, along with Gold Eagle, I had
written down. If anyone knows, I would certainly appreciate your post.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 19:30)
@here ya are
MURRAY- ask & ye shall--

(Mon Jun 02 1997 19:31)
"A Chicken in Every Speculator's Pot" by Michael Belkin/Strategic Investment
Globally acclaimed Analyst sees Gold skyrocketing when leveraged players are forced to buy back their forward sales. Margin calls will cause price to feed on itself higher. See Editorials Hit Reload:

(Mon Jun 02 1997 19:34)

(Mon Jun 02 1997 19:51)
new look at world gold council...go to:
happy trading...

(Mon Jun 02 1997 20:03)
more to read for reference,

(Mon Jun 02 1997 20:27)
I just had a look at the long term chart of rhodium and I find it very puzzling that it didn't conform to the chart pattern of other metals.
Does anyone know why? Rhodium traded at over $5000 in 90/91 and is now trading at $290. Is it worth buying a coin or two at this level?

(Mon Jun 02 1997 20:27)
@ home in FL
Bernie: North or South YUBA? I have walked the north from Sierra City to its confluence with slate creek, panning and prospecting, spectacular scenery.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 20:33)
APH: might the A-B-C correction already be done as follows:

Leg A: 108.74 to 101.10= 7.64 ( 3.82 times 2 )

Leg B: 101.10 to 103.98= 2.88 ( 288 a fibo # )

Leg C: 103.98 to 99.32= 4.66

Leg C is .609 of Leg A ( very close to the .618 golden ratio )

Leg B is exactly .618 of leg C

Leg B is .377 of Leg A ( very close to the .382 fibonacci ratio )

(Mon Jun 02 1997 20:35)
Mark continues to decline tonight...EBN GOLD down a nickle...Hi Tarnished
...MGraves:Thanks fer info on's Keith???

(Mon Jun 02 1997 20:40)
Internets favorite economist, George S. Cole, sees DOW peaking in late summer - anticipates start of secular gold bull in same period. See Coles Market Insights - YOU MUST RELOAD:

(Mon Jun 02 1997 20:42)
I'm asking too!
Reify: Or anyone, Do you know what the price of cobalt is going
these days. Also, where can I follow it.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 20:42)
Savage - I bought the June 105 puts. The plan ( subject to change at anytime ) is to sell the puts when the XAU nears 97 and buy the 95 calls. Could you go a little deeper into your strategy on puts and calls.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 20:47)
TED: I got yer mail, I don't see it here though. Yup, I mailed him.
I just caught word that Don Cherrys' wife, Rose, died....I wanted to know what his problems were, but I'm sorry to have heard this.
Put's a damper on the rest of the cup.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 20:56)
Friend of Duke of Earl
Earl ( Duke of ) I am ready to bury the hatchet. I will retract my statement
if you agree to spend at least $5 for the wine you are imbibing. Whatever
it is you're drinking now is making you mean and intolerable.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 20:57)

All: Hello, This is my first post on this forum. I have been following the discussions on this site for
about 6 months now. No, you have not yet made me a gold bug.
But for some time now I was waiting for some comment in this forum about a report on how to
handle the inevitable full-blown financial collapse. But to my surprise it looks like none of you have heard
about it. So I have typed in the news report below, taken from the March 28th 1997 issue of India Abroad, an
Indian ethnic newspaper published from New York and several other cities. The Executive Intelligence
Review ( mentioned below ) has a web site at but they do
not post their articles there. Also take a look at
I find the report interesting because some of the statistics are new ( to me ) and are offering solutions
to the coming crises. ( The reporter is Indian and writing for an Indian ethnic paper. So some of the later
details are more about India. )
Mr. Vronsky, if you want more detail you will have to contact the institutes mentioned below.


New York Mar 28th 1997- A report by a prestigious think tank has warned of an impending world economic
crisis and has suggested the creation of a global infrastructural land bridge for a return to economic
growth, in which it foresees a key role to China and to a lesser extent India.
The land bridge would be based on a high-speed rail network linking 60 cities and more than 40
The world economy, with the exception of China, is faced with an accelerating collapse of
industrial capacity that could trigger a chain reaction of stock market crashes and banking crises in most
western countries, the Washington - based Executive Intelligence Review ( EIR ) said in a report last week.
Once the process started, it said, vaporization of the international financial system could follow
within a matter of days.
The dismantling of the industrial base in most countries has resulted in massive unemployment and
social upheaval, a situation resulting from the fact that a majority of the present $2 trillion worth of daily
foreign exchange transactions in the world market has virtually no connection to the production or trade in
material goods, according to the EIR report, a copy of which was made available to India Abroad.
Citing figures, the report titled The Eurasian Land-Bridge: The New Silk Road said that in 1970,
international foreign exchange trading corresponded to approximately six times the amount of trade in
material goods.
Today, foreign exchange trade was more than 60 times the total value of imports and exports in the
world market.
While describing in particular the growth of the U.S. economy, among other Western countries, as
purely fictitious, it cited an example, saying the present trade in real commodities markets makes up less
than 50 percent of futures transactions in the United States compared with the 98-percent futures trade in
agriculture products and metals in 1973.
There has been an explosive growth worldwide of purely financial futures trade based on interest
rates, currency trade and stock indices and the latest phase is characterized by the growth of fictitious
capital in the form of the financial instruments known as derivatives, the report said.
In what the report described as a dramatic increase in government debt all over the world, it said the
worlds physical economy has been stagnating or even declining since the 1970s.
Citing more examples of what it described as the utter bankruptcy of the international finance and
monetary system, the report said the public and private indebtedness of the U.S. as a percentage of its gross
national product ( GNP ) was 29 percent in 1970 but has now risen to 50 percent; the public debt of Sweden
is currently $175 billion, or 90 percent of its gross domestic product ( GDP ) while that of Italy $112.2
billion or 112 percent of its GDP.
The productive bases of the countries are being sucked to death by the effect of this massive debt
accumulation which is causing farms and industries and even entire governments to shut down, said Leni
Rubinstein of the Washington-based Schiller Institute, an associate of EIR.
Rubinstein, who heads the China bureau at Schiller and is one of the authors of the EIR report,
told India Abroad that a new initiative by the Chinese government that has come to be known as the policy
of The New Silk Road, in reference to the ancient trade routes between East and West, had laid the
foundation of an economic turnaround.
The governments of Europe and Asia should agree on an integrated infrastructure program, which
connects the industrial centers of Europe and Asia with the population centers in South and Southeast Asia
through development corridors, she said.
The central aspect of the proposed infrastructural program, Rubinstein explained , was a Eurasian
network of high -speed trains for transport of people and goods , in which three main lines connect about 60
big cities with each other.
With the aid of the most modern technology, the rail network as well as energy and
communications system will extend the process of rapid economic development now occurring in China, to
the whole of Eurasia,  the EIR report said.
Not only would this forced development of infrastructure drastically increase the productivity of
the entire region, but the planned investments would themselves have a positive effect on employment and
production in important sectors of the capital goods industry, Rubinstein said.
The Europe-Asia continental bridge will link up more than 40 countries and regions, which will
account for 22 percent of all countries of the world and cover 39.7 million square kilometers, equivalent to
26.6 percent of the total land area, with a population of 2.2 billion, the EIR report said.
In addition plans are also afoot to connect this land bridge to Japan and the U.S.
The building of the Eurasian land bridge as the cornerstone for similar infrastructure and
economic programs for Africa, Australia and the Americas is the only viable method to bringing global
economic development at parity, the report said, adding that it was particularly in the strategic interest of
the U.S to take the initiative.
China is already leading the way with massive investment in infrastructure and India with its
already well rounded industrial and scientific technical base could follow soon, Rubinstein said. But,
while quoting the report which described India as a second giant in Asia, she said the countrys chronic
inadequacy of basic infrastructure may not allow India to function as a prime locomotive for Eurasian
India urgently requires large - scale modernization and expansion of its long overdue problems for
river control and water management, the report said.
The recent positive developments in multilateral relations among India, China, Iran and Russia
and countries of the region reflect a growing orientation toward mutually beneficial economic cooperation ,
in which the land bridge is a central element, the report said, adding Indias integration into the Eurasian
land bridge system would mean a potentially enormous gain for the economy of Eurasia as a whole.
The report also addressed the issue of funds for creating the Eurasian land bridge, estimated to cost
$100 trillion in the next 10 years.
The development of the land bridge corridors and similar projects will be financed through a
combination of state investments, credit generation on the national level, and international loans directed
primarily toward technology transfer, it said. Also, it said, the development would require a global debt
reorganization, the establishment of fixed-parity exchange rates, and a new set of trade and tariff

(Mon Jun 02 1997 21:03)
FIBO - Tomorrow could be a decent up day. If it is I still think wave C would still be in force. I assume you're using tick or hourly charts. I find using intraday charts on Elliott Wave to be misleading, I'd rather use the weekly then the daily and as a last resort the hourly to get a perspective of the market. Besides the gap at 97 is a weekly gap a very compelling target for a weak market.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 21:07)
I am going to be in Nashville next week ( 7th to 11th ) . Are there any Kitco regulars in the area?

If so, E-Mail me ( Reify will vouch for me )

(Mon Jun 02 1997 21:09)
@New England
Looks like the shift to the left in europe did not help metals but helped $. The initial response will not continue/ clearly US Financial circles are not happy with threats to integrity of Euro. Probably because it will help gold eventually and that is the immediate enemy of the capital flows to US because of US reserve currency status. How are the Canadian elections going?

(Mon Jun 02 1997 21:24)
BT fans should note the comments made by "SimpleMan ( ) " at 18:59. He is somehow linked with BT making a few comments in the past. His most recent one on Thurs 20:58 preceeded a major spike on the comex the next day.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 21:31)
@ Bright Spot:
One bright spot for the XAU today was that it closed just at ( above ) the 50 Moving Average. See

I'll take what I can get.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 21:32)
Ranji, thanks for the lengthy post. Pretty sobering thoughts to think upon.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 21:46)
@...what's this ! Another Falling Sky theory !
Ranji: The post was long and filled with errors of fact and assumption.
1 ) References to Italia's public debt is way off in terms of quantity and percentage of GDP.

2 ) The ratio between the real economy ( of manufacturered goods ) and the financial economy ( paper flow ) is not relevant. Inflation is relevent.

3 ) The reason why we never heard of the report authors - see 1 ) and 2 ) above.

Cheers...try again rookie

(Mon Jun 02 1997 21:50)
Selby 00:15

British Columbian ( and Albertans ) have only one choice this election - Reform. It is by no means a good one but in the current system we find ourselves it is the only viable alternative. PC/Lib/NDP seats just go towards the Central Canadian establishment and any discent or voicing of interests from out here have been consistently silenced. BC in the past 30 years has come out consistently against the ruling Ottawa government. Even with Mulroneys land slide - we were the only hold-outs. The NDP were our voice until it was hijacked by the politically correct and now it has become Reform. We know the Canadian federal system and senate were always stacked against us from the beginning. The old Upper and Lower Canadian just had to look at the dilution of power of New England ( and it succession movement 1808 ) to see what would happen if God-forbid the North West Territories ( Western provinces ) where incorporated and made ammends to ensure this did not happen.

Western independence is just a matter of time. Secretly I hoped for Quebec succession to expedite our own from Ottawa. This election is just a blip in history and will mean very little ( except for a trip to New York to cut a bond to pay for it ) .

In the words of Tommy Douglas ( a Prairie socialist for our foreign friends )

We will not stop until we have built Jerusalem!.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 22:07)
What gives up North? Dow Jones reports Canadian Dollar falling on election results. Gold is up 20 cents. What are you guys doing up there?

(Mon Jun 02 1997 22:09)
Ding dong Dinghy
TED: Your part of the world just made our contry a little pinker...
What are ya doin at them Cape Bretton parties?
You should have the bottle of chloriform out, hand cuffs and
some video's on how the economy really runs.
At least Alexa lives near you!

(Mon Jun 02 1997 22:29)
Tarnished ( 22:09 ) And I'm damn proud of it!!!...We want more hand outs and we want em NOW!...Canada owes us...big time! can only push us around so much and then we SNAP!....crackle and POP!...WE got the right to put food on our we can become even fatter lazy pigs!...

(Mon Jun 02 1997 22:29)
D.A. If it makes you feel any better I'm still scraping bear doo-doo out of my vibrams from my "jumping in with both feet" back on the 10th. And as I said the month before I'm holding not folding. I have the feeling lately that I am missing something going on now ( besides brains, timing, some paper$ and the last suckers rally! ) . Anyone else?

(Mon Jun 02 1997 22:31)
@Reform Party Headquarters
Earl, 00:02
When independence for Quebec and the Western Provinces come. The gentlemen-like behaviour ( especially from Central Canada ) displayed on this site ( with regards to our election ) will cease. Some predict foreign Peace-Keepers; and amazingly, no Canadians to participate this time around. Prime Minister Chretien is sleep walking towards this end, this last term, and I see no indication of change for the next - it is just a matter of when. Canadians do not display outward aggression because Ottawa & the Prime Minister command it. Do not speak up on Quebec issues etc. As we walk to the poles today - we Canadians all have a sign pinned to our backs saying

Global Village Idiots!

Diane Francis, a writer for the Financial Post said at a speech 5 years ago in Vancouver - Convert your money to Marks, S Francs, or US$ for asset protection from Canadian instability ( Our former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney has a Swiss acount. ) I think she should have encluded gold among the currences. Today I do not see any change in her advice.

On this day I wish ALL Canadians/Canadiens well.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 22:32)
EBN GOLD up .25 and SILVER up 2 cents....

(Mon Jun 02 1997 22:33)
PANDA......Thanks for the info Had heard pretty much the same.....I will be close to a pewter with access but will have to locate sites etc......BILL IN OREGON.....I am 120 miles away......all interstate....

(Mon Jun 02 1997 22:37)
WE'RE FREAKIN OUT!!...One of these days I'll send you the story of the gun,bullits, and dogs....A must read!...JFK Jr. was on History channel tonight...He's a real rags ta riches

(Mon Jun 02 1997 22:41)
TED -- Fess up, Ted. What did you do up there in Canada? First the $C is down, now it's up on the Globex. Pretty soon, I suppose it'll be all around! Heard some great spin on the Leftward march in the 'world'. It's gonna be really good for the maaaakits, uuuullllll seeee! By dem stox, dey gonna go to da mooon! Ooopps, time fer another one....

(Mon Jun 02 1997 22:45)
TED.....Well let's forget trying to hit it in the metals markets....If I just come up there and we locate what is within a few miles of you neither of us will have to sweat it anymore...Just sit back and wait for the big bucks....Whatcha think ????????

(Mon Jun 02 1997 22:53)
Panda: I can turn markets with just a double
Yes, the leftward tilt is veeeeeeeerry positive fer de stocks...Gephardt
..HAHAHAHA...Teddy Kennedy fer pres...Nailz:Iez ready fer Scaterie..right now...Willy will be lead dog...

(Mon Jun 02 1997 22:56)
Old saw "sell in May and go away", worked in two of last three years ( '94 & '96 ) . Inger Letter Forecast of 6/2/97 is insightful. See Gold Digest & Reload:

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:02)
TED -- I'm going to do something very positive for me now. I'm going to sleep! Yes, I will become a sleep walker! I will be taken care of! From cradle to grave no less! Now, who will pay for MY utopia? Those greedy corporations and rich people of course! And my stox in those companies will make me rich! Yes, I see the light!

It will be interesting to see how long the markets will like this 'paradigm' shift. One thing is clear, this is good for 'stuff', not good for paper. The question, as usual, is time. Good night all, and have another one on me TED, looks like you'll need it...... Time fer another drin.........

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:03)
Upper Canada
Ted: Stay off the streets you might get hit by one of the barrels of pork that will be rolling in before the end of the week.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:10)
Selby:I'll keep an eye out fer dem barrels...Night Panda...Election returns: LIB.155 REF.50 BQ.44 ndp.21 PC.17 OTH.1 ...

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:11)
@New England
Today Canada and France/ tomorrow the world.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:15)
Here is a brief article about China discussion with Japan re relationship with USA. This is a situation to watch, IMO. If Japan works out some sort of cozy arrangement with China it will be good-bye US $, IMO.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:15)
Tort: Great L.E. joke!...on such a grim night...

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:19)
Dollar ( U.S. ) headin south...EBN Gold up .35...Reb: Pox on yer Bulls!

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:26)
WW: I guess you're talking about the total decline of the industrial world to socialism.

Watching the Canada election on C-SPAN. Pretty interesting. Some Americans like myself acknowledge you hosers and what is going on up north.

Are the Reform in Canada moderate compared to the Libs ... and PC and BQ.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:35)
Reforming my Dinghy
TED: Thanks fer forwarding the L.E. joke....sadly fitting...
So, the new Atlantic motto..."Think Pink" thanks to Corning

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:36)
EWP: Moderate????...Election update: LIB.153 REF.61 BQ.46 ndp.21 PC.19 OTH.1...Who the hell is OTH??? EBN Gold up .35...

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:37)
@ Valley
Hey Ted : Just got home from the donut shop and see that the liberals are in again!!! The seagull landed , and I think the fan club is a good idea!! Hope the reformers hang on to be the opposition. Are you inviting Alexa over for a victory party?? ha ha ha

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:41)
Paul: "Mean and intolerable"??? Cough! Sputter! Arghhhh! ...... Lets see if I understand this. The issue on the table is reconciliation. Right? But I must agree to set aside my magnum of "Roma Rocket" for a bottle of wine more conducive to mellower outcome. Right?

Though its unfair of me to enlarge your position beyond what you have stated; the implication is: That if I develop a taste for undistilled spirits, with a purchase price in excess of 5 USD, fermented of lighter skinned grapes, ordinarily dispensed from chilled green bottles *with out* handy twist lock caps, commonly found in the trunks of Volvo sedans driven only by sensitive socially concerned individuals who attend all the better functions and sip, said spirits, only in moderation; it will naturally follow that my spirit will become one the world .... and peace and tranquility will reign once more? Hmmmmm! I like that very much ...... but would I still advocate the summary execution of every convicted drug user and dealer we can seize. Without regard for station or circumstance.

An interesting coincidence happened today. A friend called to imform me that a mutual aquaintance from 15 years ago was just arrested with 6 TONS of cocaine in his possesion. ..... Thumbs up or thumbs down? 6 tons of the crap would supply a lot of kids. As well as provide considerable amusement at some of the better soires.

At the very least, the permanent removal of this fellow would mean that suppliers would be forced to find another means of conveyance. Practical reality should always be divorced from one's sense of personal taste. Though we may feel squeemish about killing these folks, our squeemishness does not subtract one ounce from the practical utility of doing so. IMO.

I extend my hand, without hesitation. I am not offended by you poor choice of words. From personal experience I realize how easily done and difficult to undo. I ask only one thing in return. And that is to remember that forums like this are a battle of ideas ..... never people. Attacking the person instead of the idea, only confuses the issue and contributes nothing to enlightenment.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:43)
remark & reply
BOB: You weren't very charitable to Ranji...I see prophecy being fulfilled in those lines.APH: Really not much to tell but; let's say back when gold rallied to the 360's I bought some cheap insurance ( puts ) at 340 ( which I did ) . Now, I'm not really a bear on gold so...when gold approaches 340 I reverse the put with a long future....ergo unlimited upside but at 340 NO downside. ( That is, anything I lose on the future I gain on the put....and above 340 it's all gravy. That's how I turn a cheap put into a long call )

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:45)
APH: I kind of buried your name in my last post; did you notice it?

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:48)
@New England
EWR: YOU DO NOT LISTEN: The people of the world will not give up the benefits they have paid for. I do not know why this is difficult for the right to understand since they think everyone is trying to take there money. GOD BLESS THE VOTERS OF FRANCE AND CANADA. I have always said Democracy WORKS!!!!

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:48)
@Reform Party Headquarters

Reform is a right wing party, although initially it was a populist movement ( including all types from the leading parties ) against the Liberal and Tory mismanagement and patronage.

Recently it has become the only voice of English speaking Canadian since the Liberals silenced any voices from within its own ranks.

Our current financial success in Canada was based largely on the Liberal and Tory and NDP parties adopting the Reform financial policies. In Canada, a party does not necessarily have to hold

power to have a big influence on the Country.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:49)
Ted: Does any party in Canada proposed to change the soon to be bankrupt CPP and other entitlements ( e.g. health care ) without placing a huge tax burden on the younger generations ( similiar to the ponzi scheme here in the U.S. ) ? Basically, having enough ... guts .. to reform it ( slow the growth, etc. ) .

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:55)
The person who has to pay for those SS benefits
The regions of Canada who voted for this left wing Liberal party correspond very nicely with
the regions who have the most to benefit from welfare cheques and unemployment insurance. Dependency on the
state has played a big part in voting paterns. The western provinces who pay for those benefits
incidently voted against the Liberals. The vote is by no means an endorsement of socialism in as
much as an endorsement of social dependancy.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:56)
WW: What makes you think I'm a right winger ( maybe I am .. maybe I'm not ) . Most of the entitlement plans around the world are based the pay as you go theory ( like a ponzi or pyramid scheme since most of these plans are actuarial out of balance ... so you can understand it .. people get more out than they contribute and the bill gets pass on to the next generation and so on and so on .. and tax RATES are raised over time until the systems eventually collapse ( but most politicians are only concern about the next election .. that is what the Democrats Mediscare campaign was all about .... selling out the future ... especially those not old enough to vote ... since the will have to deal with the debt someday and your generations retirement ( because you will get more than your entitled to ... especially since a boomer will live in his mid 80s and his contribution will probably only cover the time until he reaches the early to mid 70s. That is a mathematical concept I hope you can understand.

(Mon Jun 02 1997 23:59)
EWP: Yes! The Reform Party led by Preston Manning....