Anyone know what a EURO would be worth in terms of gold or
a bushel of corn? Will it be another layer of "I owe you
nothings"?

It will never come to pass. European culture is too diverse.
The idea is just an excuse for the economist click to have
lunch in fancy places and visit interesting women while telling
their wives how hard they have to work.

Sooner or later all fiat currencies come to an end. Ledger
entries are not as valuable as baggage claim checks.

If you have the federal notes buy gold at current prices.

Eldorado: Why is it you insist on no accountability for the current payment of SS and Medi taxes. Those paying deserve the benefits.
If you believe they dont the a car thief should be able to come to your house and take your car. The fact you paid for it in your moaral realm must mean nothing if I interpret your comments properly. The broad based tax will work and hurt nobody.

Just to relieve you all I am not operating from a high powered govt surveiliance computer in Langley Va which is CIA Headquarters. Just funnin 6 pak!

WW -- I guess it takes a 'beltway' type of fanatic to say that a tax increase doesn't hut anybody! That being the case, tax everything 10% more. How about 15 or 20% more! What's a few more percent! Eventually, it only amounts to pennys anyway! WW, It is not a matter OF supporting the Elders in retirement. It is a matter of HOW the Elders are to be supported in retirement! Remember the 13th Amendment? Perhaps I'll re-iterate here: "Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction". So what is 'confiscation' called? What can 'involuntary' taxation be called? Who made me a slave to support someone elses 'retirement'? Is it MY fault that such an injust, ponzi scam system came into being? I wasn't born then. I didn't, nor wouldn't have, voted for it. It is destructive to future generations. I'll take care of myself, thankyou, and be no burden on my kids, or theirs, as they save for their retirement lives! I'll have none of your hogwash and BS!

ELDORADO: Your argument could be carried further: I did not make the laws, so I won't abide by them...

ElDorado: Ok I guess you go on the record of being against personal responsibility. Many people have been are and willingly providing money to the govt for their Social security. Why do you feel they are not entitled to THEIR money and you and yours are. Sounds like a hypocritical std. to me. But then again what you think and want will not happen given those with a vested interest in the programs. Again how can one be so much against the proud working people of this country as to want to rob them of their EARNED retirement benefits. Amazing!

Fidelity Select American Gold Chart, hourly prices in percent,
seven hours ( prices ) per day, for ten days.
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/aghr.gif

Mike -- Yup! THE Constitution IS THE LAW of the land! When a law does not conform to the Constitution, it is NOT a lawful law! If you want to make it lawful, then AMEND the Constitution! If the country does not want the Constitution to be the binding principle in law, then abolish it and have your 'whim-of-the-day-democratic BS'! There IS NO in-between! So tell me, if you can, what part of it made ME a slave?

WW -- What? More BS? I'm the most 'INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY' type of soul I know of! What the hell does that have to do with providing for YOUR parents retirement? I thought that might be part of YOUR RESPONSIBILITIES if it hasn't already been done by them!

ElDo: Get a grip man!! Didnt know your guilt sensitivities could be touched off so easily. I am not asking nor is anybody asking you to provide for someone elses parent's retirement. You should recognize the claim of those who have/are and will pay TAXES into SS and medicare. This means you may have to pay some taxes to rightfully compensate them and others to make good on the earned benefits where the govt has used the surplus to keep interest rates low and maintain or increase the price level of some of your assets. Its ok your Reagan/Thatcher era is coming to an end and I hope you will get accustomed hopefully against selfishness.

WW -- Don't get me wrong. If people want to pour some of their hard earned mony into Social Security INSURANCE, that should be THEIR business. Any insurance company can fail at any time, no less than any company, corporation, or government of any size. Am I at risk if I should put my faith in a stock of a company? Of course I am! Am I at risk if a government should encounter 'problems' and its currency sinks to near nothing? Of course I am! Maybe you haven't heard, but Ponzi scams are also dangerous to ones financial health. What will it take for YOU to learn that? Perhaps you'll be the 'bag' holder!

WW -- You may volunteer for 'slave' service at your convenience. However, you have no right to volunteer me for it. That right is reserved to myself! So go ahead. Knock yourself out! Enjoy your proper socialistic status!

Article 1 Section 8 Clause 5 of the US Constitution
says one of the powers granted to the government is
to "Coin Money, and the value therof, and that of
foreign coin". Comments?

Auric -- That's just one of those 'powers' that has been abrogated. The Constitution apparently didn't 'say' that they 'couldn't do that! The Supreme Court won't 'rule' on it saying that it is a 'political' question. How about that BS?

ELDO: Our discussion was about the propriety of making good to those workers who have paid alot into SS and Medi which we must and will even if we have to take it out of cheater's hides. What you suggest about choice of paying into SS and Medi is not debatable it is the law. ARE you suggesting that people willfully violate FEDERAL LAW.
Dont tell me that. Breaking Laws is not debatable. Your comments are worrisome in their moral concept.

WW -- Claim on S.S.? Why do you think it is different than any other corporation or insurance company that you might hold stock in or pay premium into? What is the written bylaws of it? What is the actual 'guarantee' of it? Have you seen it/read it? Your a beltway person. Perhaps you'll 'look' into it and then relate to the rest of us what it actually says. I'm sure that you would find a heartfelt thanks from everyone here for doing so, including me! No sense in pandering about when there are facts to be found out!

George Cole: Despite the move to the socialist left in France, the trend generally between left and right political opponents in recent years is a battle to occupy the middle ground, which is where the electorate largely sits. The dry enonomic rationalism of the "right" is unpopular, and the "left" has ditched much of its unpopular socialist baggage, which is how Tony Blair's Labour party won the British election. The big spending "left" governments seem to be a thing of the past and the trend is towards more conservative economic management, but with a human face, which electorates appear to want.

What you are seeing is the "left" very effectively seizing the middle ground from the right, and pursuing more moderate economic and social policies ( as opposed to traditional socialist policies ) . Socialism as we once knew it is dying everywhere you look. Even French socialism is highly pragmatic.

This is my reading of the political signs and if I am right, then the political and economic upheaval that you forecast may not come to bear and should have little impact on gold for these reasons alone.

WW -- Is the 13th Amendment law or is some 'social security insurance' program the law? Which is THE LAW of the land? They BOTH can't be as they are exclusionary! I'll NEVER let you live it down if you DON'T answer!

Eldorado: The point I am making is that the
manipulation going on in the currency markets has
constitutional sanction. I am only citing the
clause which allows it. Granted it's a fine legal
point, but if the average citizen was even remotely
familiar with the Constitution, then we might not be
in the mess we find ourselves in now.

Bas -- That doesn't make total sense to me. Perhaps clarification is required. My take of it is that Blair will pursue EEC. In 'providing' that more 'humanic' face, it'll mean more government spending and more government controls, powers, and taxation. So what is your definition of 'socialism'? Perhaps people need to define 'their' terms here!

WW: Is Federal Law, moral law??? Just check the
government record out.
Is Government a religion???
Is Congress, the College of Cardinals??? Is Bubba the
Pope??? ( those of other faiths, please insert @ Cardinals
and the Pope )
WW please think about this, please, pretty please, aw
come on.

Auric -- Actually, if we really had a 'Constitutional' currency of gold and silver, it would be very hard or even impossible to manipulate it! Therefore, I don't find that the 'constitutionally sanctioned manipulation of the currency' argument as justifiable under 'The Constitution'. Under an abrogated Constitution though, even 'democracy' can happen! Which do WE have?

WW: Government is religion, gone astray.

eldo---

ww has been assigned, by consensus i might add,
a name befitting his staure of grandeoise.

weine wackus protractus is the way i remember it,
or maybe just weine wacker. anyhow, anything inside
the beltway has many names, and hairy palms!!

cherokee!; ) rolling-on-the-copper-bull-hides

Jack -- You too need to define your terms. I.E. religion.

Cherokee -- Actually, as un-befitting as it may seem, I kind of welcome the WW posts here! The responses to them will actually help awaken a few individuals to their plight! Else, many will go through life never knowing the golden age that could be theirs, or at least their childrens. Slavery comes in many guise. Many of these issues might never have been brought up but for WW! Thanks WW!

Eldorado @ 02:25--I am not quite ready to say that
we should forget the constitution, abrogated or
otherwise. Maybe we just need better constitutional
lawyers, eh?

Eldo: Sorry, but I can't deciper what the term I.E.
means. Also some others leave me uncertain, but I forgot
them.

eldo, auric, wewe,and others----

the arguments of where systems are going ( ie...govt's, curriencies,
precious metals, etc... ) is quite easy to ascertain. the time frame
for them to reach these arenas is the real question.

as the past repeats itself over and over, there are swings from
one extreme to the other. there have been periods of seeming
normalcy, where predictability was,...well, predictable.

enter chaos. chaos has been around forever, but no-one ever tried
to enter it into the equations for predictability. this has been
done, and it is a beautiful and perfect fit. what does this say for
reasonable discourse on seemingly banal subjects? --- nothing.

these events will happen, sometimes on a regular basis, other-times
on irregular and violent basis. there will always be those who believe
they KNOW how to better spend the masses money, and show THEM the
correct way to live. ( it takes a village! ) these folks will vaporize
into thin air when the pendulum allows them some relief from the
ponderous and odious task of supporting their upper-most appendage.

cherokee!; ) hanger-of-copper-bulls-hides

Auric -- My argument is that we either have a Constitution in totality, or we don't have one at all! It can't be piece-meal! If so, which part ( s ) ? If any, why/when? If not any, why isn't it upheld in totality? Has there been an Amendment abrogating any of it except prohibition? None that I'm aware of. In the example I posed regarding SSI, either I'm a slave to it/under it, or SSI is 'legal'. Can it be both ways as long as I do not 'volunteer'? Actually, can it be 'law' as long as I do not volunteer to volunteer, meaning that I AM FULLY cognizant of what I am doing? Their forms do not 'disclose' that kind of information! What does that make 'them'?

Jack -- More properly, I.E. would not be capitalized, but most people would otherwise know that it means 'that is to say'. Typical usage. Now that I've explained that, perhaps you might share with us your definition of 'religion' as used in your recent postings.

Eldorado @ 03:07--I think giving the the Tenth
Amendment the same backing as is given to the First
Amendment would help matters considerably. ( BTW, I
like the 2nd Amendment too! ) .... :- )

Eldorado: Tony Blair appears to be pro EMU, but on his terms ( which we have yet to see ) . He has stated that he supports Margaret Thatcher's economic policies and intends to continue along the same lines. He has also adopted the political strategies used by Australia's previous labor government ( which pursued policies of low inflation, reduced spending, shrinking welfare, privatizing of govt assets ) to seize power by taking over the policies of the right. And European leaders ( except France perhaps ) now see Tony Blair as a political model for Europe, and presumably, "left" governments.

While budget cutting of "left" governments is likely to be moderate in order to maintain a "human face", we are not likely to see the wild spending of past "socialist" governments.

For the purpose of this argument, socialism is about high taxation and big spending in order to fund socialist programs such as social welfare, job creation, etc.

speaking of villages---

sure am glad the klinton's were able to find
a "suitable village" for their daughter!

cambridge has always been a village---for the wealthy elitists---

do as i say, not as i do! words for the masses to live by,
while the inside the beltway group, gropes everything in
sight, legal and illegal because they deserve it!

paula jones and how many others? and what with billary?
she has some BIG questions to answer dealing with the mossad
and vince foster.

how do politicians manuever around scandals? they create
bigger problems else-where. now that the ca-ca has begun to hit
the fan for them both, something is due, and soon.

about ww---

he has the same rights as all. that does not give any credence
or validity to ANY chappaquiudick, or whitewater holier than
thou, liberal mind-set bs. liberals want it ALL. they want control
over our money, our childrens minds, and, they want to TAKE CARE
OF YOU!
ww--go look in the mirror, what so you see grasshopper? yes,
your hands are full of silver, and the betrayal of the
american people continues at an accelerating pace.
fodder abounds, which group will meet the eye of the
taskmasters?

cherokee!; ) taker-of-liberals-smelly-hides-for-pet-skunks-teepee

Auric -- No question about it! Today, we can look back upon that August body of people who framed the Constitution and then the Bill of Rights and be surprised that at that time, they really didn't feel the need for a Bill of Rights! They just couldn't imagine a people that would forget or surrender their God-given rights to any power! And ALL of THOSE rights are not enumerated within the Bill of Rights! That is what makes those words of the 10th, "The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people.", so important!

Cherokee: Excuse a rant here but you touched a
nerve. Gawd, these hypocritical liberals gall me!
Did the Clintons send their kid to the public
schools in Washington D.C.? No? Why not? We spend
more per pupil in our nation's capitol than just
about any place else. Yet when it came time for
decision, guess what? Private school! Hell of a
good reason to distrust the people in charge I say.

Eldorado @ 03:35--Gotta love that Tenth. It has
been neglected in the last several years, has it
not. It's frustrating as hell, but it could be a
handy thing to have when crunch time comes.

Eldorado: Religion taugh me rules, that when followed
will allow for harmony in my relations with others.
It taught me to strive to learn within my own
capabilities, and if prosperous; to first help those in
my own sphere -if they so required- and then to consider
those, not in my sphere by providing good quidance and
reasonable help. If I had a business and employment was
mutually beneficial to both myself and the recipient, I
would probably help.
I believe that government had good intentions, but was
bastardized by those whose only aim was/is profit at any
cost.
They have infiltrated it because, it's where the money
and influence is. The taxpayers money would be better
used, by the taxpayer.
Government should see that the law be carried out justly
for everyone within its borders. If a large company sent
to many jobs out of the US, I would tell them to leave.
There is always someone around that will take there
place.

Jack -- Thankyou! I appreciate your posting.

Auric -- Actually, YOU don't NEED any of them written out. They are there for the government so THEY won't forget. Apparently, and like so many other things they don't do well, they also don't seem to be able to read and understand! Must be dyslexia or something!

Auric: Why should the Clintons be different, the public schools are for the poor don't ya know? Here in Calif. a big percent of public school teachers send their kids to private school. How's that for irony? What a case for vouchers in my book!

Eldorado: Deriving their just powers from the
consent of the governed. Seems an antiquated
concept. Bring back Paul----Revere that is.

Goldbug 23: Good point. Another example of a failed
policy.

Having returned from a brief absence, my heart grows fonder as I scroll thru Kitco in the morning. I see the "great debate" continues, unabated. Don't like to think of myself as a pessimist, but as an astrologer, I have to call 'em as I see 'em ( It's my duty ) , and I think it's all moot. The whole ball of wax will come undone in horriffic fashion before either a golden age of freedom or a total socialist victory emerges. Resurging socialism is a final, desperate attempt to "fix it" by the people and their representatives, and if "effective" will merely hasten an economic catastrophe. Socialism can only "work" ( for a time ) when it has something to "redistribute." The kitty is getting awfully tight these days, for that. There will be no scraps to fight over when the apocalypse comes. The "golden age of freedom" will emerge only after this entire structure has disintegrated, and free social elements break away and create a gold-standard based constitutional community. Then there will be either gangster enemies or colonies. It is a chilling and disquieting thought as to what we will all have to go through. And our children and grandchildren as well. These things are not solved by any "bi-partisan" agreements, or "consevative" or "progressive" administrations. I fear that this thing we are on the brink of is the real thing. As usual, I find Cherokee's take on the "great debate" the most cogent, imaginative, and to the point.

Just an update of a "prediction" ( or, more properly, warning ) made on the Astrological Investor 10/15/96 post. The text was exactly as follows:

"While it may not portend massive disruption in OUR lives, we still want to keep close tabs on SIERRA LEONE ( April 27, 1961 0:01 a.m. Standard Time,
Freetown ) . The transiting Jupiter/Uranus conjunction contacts this nation's
Jupiter, and squares its 6 degree Taurus Sun, in February. Neptune will also
approach natal 29 degree Capricorn Saturn here, oppose natal Mars at 25
Cancer, and square Mercury in Taurus. Involvement of the 1st, 4th, and 7th
houses could be indicating domestic troubles involving foreign interests or
partners. There are definite threats to authority and order here, including the
possibility of corruption, scandal, betrayal, and attack or invasion from outside the borders. Visitors who have ties to this nation be advised to be on your toes
from here on in. "

Critical observers will forgive the delay of a couple of months for the political effects of what was going down in Sierra Leone to emerge at the beginning of June. Nevertheless, I offer this as a humble example of how the ancient art can be applied to modern geo-political observation and timing. Those who were forewarned may have had the chance to avoid the severe turmoil of the recent eruption of fighting and the frenzied evacuation of all American personnel from this unfortunate scene. I do not enjoy making these observations ahead of time. There is far too much human tragedy in this world. But there are effects flowing from the causes we set in motion that cannot be stopped, or settled, until they have run their course, or been confronted boldly and with wisdom and intelligence. Turn of the century America, and "the West" will have such an opportunity. I see no public evidence that it will be seized to anyone's future advantage.

Auric:

Wish I could help you on the time frame, but I've been thinking "any day" for so long, that my guess wouldn't be much help. However, currently in silver some short term considerations do look favorable, such as COT, lease rates and recent spread rates and warehouse movements.

What I feel real strong on is that when the real move starts ( particularly in silver ) , it will be immediately out of control, moving faster and sharper than almost can be imagined.

Looks like the battle slackened in the early hours. Any who would read further on SS privatization can find very good thinking at: The Social Security Privatization Site ( http://www.socialsecurity.org ) . Why fix a failing system when it could be replaced with a better one?

The German govt has backed down on the plan to revalue gold. The Central Bank won. What a surprise. That should be slightly bullish for gold and bearish for the dollar.

The best investment is still a good education. It can't be taxed! I'm off to Microsoft training, ya'll have a great day.

Is it me, or did gold just fall out of bed?

EBN Gold down 1.50....WE need help Tort!...heeeeeeeelp.....

Panda: Unfortunately gold has fallen out of bed. The recent pattern of modest gains overseas, then heavy downward pressure in New York is repeating. August gold now down $1.20 after being up 50 cents overnight.
As long as the yellow stuff cannot repond to good news, the path of least resistance will be down. This pattern should be changing soon, but not just yet.

Big rally! August gold now down just 70 cents.

Gentlepersons ( to wax politically correct ) in deference to WW and his socialist fellowtravelers I post the following story demonstrating the ability of government to solve the problems of the great unwashed. I do this in the face of economic excrement which has just entered the air conditioning system and been expelled from the vents.

A farmer sitting on his porch noticed a highway-department
truck pull over on the road's shoulder. A man got out, dug a
sizable hole in the ditch, and got back in the vehicle. A few
minutes later, the other occupant of the truck got out, filled up
the hole, tamped the dirt, and got back in the truck.

Then they drove forward on the shoulder about 50 yards and
repeated the process--digging, waiting, refilling. After a half-
dozen repetitions, the farmer sauntered over to them. "What
are you doin'?" he asked.

"We're on a highway beautification project," the driver said.
"And the guy who puts the tree in the hole is home sick
today."

Down 1.50 is hardly falling out of bed! Gold is now testing a stress line on the chart that cuts into the bottom area it has formed over the past month. Expect a probing as far down as $2.00, but a close at or above 344 - 344.50 basis August. If it can do that, we are going to try to take out 348 August, which will then put gold in the clear for some sort of rally out of its downtrend. If it can't do that, we might indeed see some sickening prices ahead. I'm still hot for that Saturn/NYSE Moon conjunction which is within 2 degrees now and SHOULD be kicking in for silver any day. If this conjunction is negative, we're all going down big time. I'll stick with history and stay with that July strength I've been looking for. Apparently it will be brief, but welcome nevertheless.

Judging from the fact that everything in which I am investing is sucking worse than an economy model Hoover vaccum cleaner I fell compelled for Ted's mental health and my own to post the following additional story.

There is this American tourist on a trip around Ireland.

When the tour arrives at Belfast he decides to go for a stroll with the aim of taking in this new culture. After he's been
walking for a while someone rushes up behind him and sticks a gun in his back.

The person says to the tourist, "What are you, Catholic or Protestant?"

The American thinks to himself "Great--if I say I'm Catholic, this guy is sure to be Protestant. If I say I'm Protestant,
he's sure to be Catholic. Either way I'm dead." Then he has a brain wave and says to the Guy, "actually I'm Jewish."
This, he thinks to himself, will surely keep him safe.

The guy behind him then replies "Gee, I must be the luckiest Arab in Ireland."

Ted Butler 07:04--Thanks. Quite a ride ahead of us
eh?

Tort: Haven't gotten to yer joke yet but am headin that way...Tort: Can't ya do somethin about yer fellow lawyer WW...He is the biggest BORE I have ever had the misfortune to come across...SS..SS...SS...he's got a life..hahaha...

George S. Cole -- I hate it when they wake me up by throwing me out of bed! ;- ) )

Mike Sheller ( 7:40 ) Why do I have a big lump on me head then???

I just checked the EBN ticker. I haven't seen so many down arrows since Custer's last stand. George's comment that gold has fallen out of bed may be right. But then maybe it just wanted to get out of bed and get moving. Why does a chicken cross the road anyway? I'll tell you in a later post. I'm off for a morning walk to digest all this negative news. I just pity anyone I meet on the way.

TED: Oh how you just tempted me!

Tort: Once again you have brought a ray of sunshine to an otherwise drab and grim day...Government work..hahahahaha...ditto Ireland...now how about dealin with "THE BORE" of Kitco...dronin on and on and on...Makes me proud to have left New England! Mornin Panda...burp..

TED -- Good Morning! Message recieved, I got to attend to this nasty bump on my head though. Seems I was knocked out of bed again bythat yellow stuff. Speaking of mind numbed robots.... never mind, that would be an ad hominum. I keep on thinking, "This is a precious metals site. isn't it?" Got to go, meetings...........

Top Ten reasons EMU will fail
10. Looks too much like an ostritch
9. Could not make it through boot camp with a name
like EMU
8. Took health care costs out of the calculations.
7. Bad mouthed gold.
6. Them Japanese cars are better than Renaults
5. More pay for less work.
4. Buba don't like it.
3. Emu's don't fly
2. WW took a long position in EMU call options
1. Hell, even the French can't stand it

Gold down $1.50, silver down 3 cents. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO REASON TO OWN GOLD OR GOLD SHARES- TAKE ALL YOUR MONEY AND BUY INTEL ON THE DIP!!
Ha Ha Ha Ha

Tally Ho

Our Constitution is being stolen bit by bit over the decades. Want proof? Unplug all your electronic soma and reread Our Constitution, line by line. What did our Fathers mean, for example, "to coin money"? You do not need to be a supreme court justice to understand these words.

One method is used repeatedly to steal freedom. A crisis is confronted or invented. "Trade this freedom" ,says the political leader, "and I will give you relief." This is never stated explicitly but is couched in a lie. Those with political power lie, the "free press" repeates the lie, over and over. Government agencies publish studies affirming the lie, toadies in academia publish papers using the lies as assumptions. Day after day the lies are presented to the people as truth. At last The People weary of the crisis and confronted on all sides by the lies as the solution to their problems, accept the lies as the truth. The lies are written into the law of the land, the supreme court says yes this is what the Constitution "meant" ( even though it is exactly opposite of what The constitution "said" ) . And another piece of freedom is gone.

TO ALL,
THE GOLD DOWN U.S 341.45 PER OZ...THE NITE STILL YOUNGGGGGGGG!
GOOD LUCK!

Eldo,Earl,WW: I just finished reading the overnight posts.You fellows
had a very spirited debate during the wee hours. I have some thoughts
that I will keep to myself only because I cannot type fast enough to
keep up with you. Besides, you dont need me anyway. You have it all
covered, dont you? Do all lawyers talk that much?

TED -- Good Morning! Message recieved, I got to attend to this nasty bump on my head though. Seems I was knocked out of bed again bythat yellow stuff. Speaking of mind numbed robots.... never mind, that would be an ad hominum. I keep on thinking, "This is a precious metals site. isn't it?" Got to go, meetings...........

TED -- Disregard last post, Netscape problems!!!

Tort: On such a grim day I thought I'd give you some background on yer client so you can plan-out my defense...hahaha...You got yer work cut fer ya!..JIN: HI!...Thanks for your great e-mail and I'll get back to you but for now I have to go to the big city for the day....should I stop at the CASINO???hahaha....

Mike Sheller: You're right, down $1.50 is not the end of the world. Note this will be the fourth consecutive down day for bullion and there rarely are five in a row. So a rally can be expected shortly. It's strength ( or lack of it ) will tell us a lot about the odds of a final drop down to $330 or so.

Eldorado: I look upon the political process in a dynamic way, probing for direction as well as where we are at a particular point in time. The right wing shift in economic policy began with Reagan's big tax cuts. The political balance of power during the 1980s made it impossible to slash spending proportionately; hence the soaring budget deficits of that era.

Now that the political balance has moved further to the right, the powers that be are focusing on deficit reduction through spending cuts along with additional tax cuts. So the fact that we are still running substantial deficits ( although lower as a percent of GDP than Europe and Japan ) does not mean that there has not been a tremendous swing to the right over the past 18-20 years.

I also view the political landscape via a "bottom line" approach; namely which income groups have benefitted from ongoing political/economic trends. The evidence is overwhelming that the top 20% of the income distribution ( and especially the top 1% ) have vastly increased their share of the income and wealth pies since Reagan took office and are continuing to do so under the "liberal' President Clinton

The booming stock market has overwhelmingly benefitted the very top of the economic pyramid. By contrast, the real estate boom of the 1970s and early 1980s, enriched the middle class primarily since most Americans do own their own homes.

Never forget that Clinton's economic polices are at least as right wing as Reagan's. He talks differently, but his actions have always been to the benefit of Wall Street and the Fortune 500. Do not confuse Clinton's corruption and cultural liberalism with economic liberalism. He is totally owned and controlled by the most powerful economic actors in the nation.

I still maintain that income and especially wealth differentials in America have become so egregious as to be incompatible with a stable democratic society. If the country's democratic processes remain essentially intact ( by no means a certainty ) , a shift the political left ( economic left, not cultural left ) is inevitable despite the virtual complete domination of the current political landscape by well-heeled conservatives.

XAU - With this mornings weakness in gold the gap at 97 should be filled today, this comes a little early and allows for lower prices. Support is 96, a close under 96 would not be good for the short term.

Every arrow in EBN commodity site is pointin DOWN...I'm outta here and off to the big city....to beat up some SOCIALISTS...

It's Magic! No, its Accounting!

FOCUS-Kohl backs Waigel after German gold compromise

Reuters, Wednesday, June 04, 1997 at 07:55

By Tom Heneghan
BONN, June 4 ( Reuter ) - German Chancellor Helmut Kohl threw
his weight fully behind Finance Minister Theo Waigel on
Wednesday but his embattled ally struggled to save face after
losing his grab for Bundesbank gold to qualify for the euro.
Kohl told a stormy parliament session Waigel would stay in
office and Germany, which needs to find 19 billion marks ( $11
billion ) to keep its 1997 budget on target, would still meet the
strict Maastricht criteria for Europe's monetary union ( EMU ) .
The chancellor rejected opposition calls for new elections
and brushed off an opposition motion to sack Waigel.
"You know that Waigel will stay in office," Kohl called out
at hooting opposition deputies during the debate. He said
Waigel, whose plan revalue the Bundesbank's gold reserves
sparked off a mini-revolt among deputies in the government
ranks, was a strong supporter of the euro.
"A delay would have an enormous impact on financial markets
and the German economy's chances in the export market," Kohl
said. "The German government will keep firmly to the timetable
and criteria for currency union."
The debate, one day after Bonn backed off from its
controversial plan to force the Bundesbank to pay out this year
the profits from a revaluation, came amid rising calls for
Waigel's head.
Apart from the opposition parties, even the influential
business daily Handelsblatt said Waigel now had to quit after
his grab for gold shook the credibility of Bonn's preparations
for EMU.
"Waigel did not get one step closer to fulfilling his aim to
meet the Maastricht criteria," it wrote. "There is no way around
it. The only thing left for Waigel to do is resign."
In a fighting mood, Waigel told the legislature that he and
Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer had agreed an approach to
revalue bank assets and to pay out extra profits next year, a
gain which would thus be too late to help the 1997 finances on
which EMU qualification will be based.
But apart from saying no gold would be sold, Waigel gave few
details of the agreement, which he said was still under
discussion with the influential central bank.
Quoting the terms of what he and Tietmeyer agreed orally on
Tuesday, he said "there will be a serious attempt to seek a
mutually acceptable solution that will permit a revaluation of
certain assets in the year 1997 with a pay-out ( of resulting
profits ) to take effect in 1998."
Details of an agreement would still have to be worked out
with the Bundesbank and then discussed by the bank's council and
the Bonn cabinet, Kohl added.
Tietmeyer said on Tuesday evening his urgent talks with
Waigel earlier that day did not deal with Germany's gold
reserves. The Bundesbank on Wednesday denied that this meant he
had denied finding an agreement with Waigel.
"The Bundesbank President and Finance Minster Theo Waigel
made clear that no formal agreement has been reached. The
appropriate bodies have yet to give their approval," it said in
a statement.
The confusion over what the two men agreed dominated the
debate and opposition deputies accused Waigel of trying to fool
the public by suggesting an agreement when one was not there.
Kohl and Waigel also proclaimed unchanged respect for the
independence of the Bundesbank in monetary affairs but the
chancellor pointedly noted it must in turn respect parliament.
The legislature has the power to alter Bundesbank statutes.
Waigel said he had imposed a spending freeze, requiring all
new spending and expenditures over one million marks to have his
personal approval, and said Bonn would make extra savings and
privatisation efforts to finance the 1997 budget properly.
Joschka Fischer, the Greens leader who ranks as one of
Bonn's funniest speakers, had deputies roaring with laughter as
he lashed out at Waigel in the debate.
"You don't deserve the Bundesbank's gold, but a gold medal
for creative accounting," he declared.
( $ = 1.731 German Marks )

It's Magic! No, its Accounting!

FOCUS-Kohl backs Waigel after German gold compromise

Reuters, Wednesday, June 04, 1997 at 07:55

By Tom Heneghan
BONN, June 4 ( Reuter ) - German Chancellor Helmut Kohl threw
his weight fully behind Finance Minister Theo Waigel on
Wednesday but his embattled ally struggled to save face after
losing his grab for Bundesbank gold to qualify for the euro.
Kohl told a stormy parliament session Waigel would stay in
office and Germany, which needs to find 19 billion marks ( $11
billion ) to keep its 1997 budget on target, would still meet the
strict Maastricht criteria for Europe's monetary union ( EMU ) .
The chancellor rejected opposition calls for new elections
and brushed off an opposition motion to sack Waigel.
"You know that Waigel will stay in office," Kohl called out
at hooting opposition deputies during the debate. He said
Waigel, whose plan revalue the Bundesbank's gold reserves
sparked off a mini-revolt among deputies in the government
ranks, was a strong supporter of the euro.
"A delay would have an enormous impact on financial markets
and the German economy's chances in the export market," Kohl
said. "The German government will keep firmly to the timetable
and criteria for currency union."
The debate, one day after Bonn backed off from its
controversial plan to force the Bundesbank to pay out this year
the profits from a revaluation, came amid rising calls for
Waigel's head.
Apart from the opposition parties, even the influential
business daily Handelsblatt said Waigel now had to quit after
his grab for gold shook the credibility of Bonn's preparations
for EMU.
"Waigel did not get one step closer to fulfilling his aim to
meet the Maastricht criteria," it wrote. "There is no way around
it. The only thing left for Waigel to do is resign."
In a fighting mood, Waigel told the legislature that he and
Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer had agreed an approach to
revalue bank assets and to pay out extra profits next year, a
gain which would thus be too late to help the 1997 finances on
which EMU qualification will be based.
But apart from saying no gold would be sold, Waigel gave few
details of the agreement, which he said was still under
discussion with the influential central bank.
Quoting the terms of what he and Tietmeyer agreed orally on
Tuesday, he said "there will be a serious attempt to seek a
mutually acceptable solution that will permit a revaluation of
certain assets in the year 1997 with a pay-out ( of resulting
profits ) to take effect in 1998."
Details of an agreement would still have to be worked out
with the Bundesbank and then discussed by the bank's council and
the Bonn cabinet, Kohl added.
Tietmeyer said on Tuesday evening his urgent talks with
Waigel earlier that day did not deal with Germany's gold
reserves. The Bundesbank on Wednesday denied that this meant he
had denied finding an agreement with Waigel.
"The Bundesbank President and Finance Minster Theo Waigel
made clear that no formal agreement has been reached. The
appropriate bodies have yet to give their approval," it said in
a statement.
The confusion over what the two men agreed dominated the
debate and opposition deputies accused Waigel of trying to fool
the public by suggesting an agreement when one was not there.
Kohl and Waigel also proclaimed unchanged respect for the
independence of the Bundesbank in monetary affairs but the
chancellor pointedly noted it must in turn respect parliament.
The legislature has the power to alter Bundesbank statutes.
Waigel said he had imposed a spending freeze, requiring all
new spending and expenditures over one million marks to have his
personal approval, and said Bonn would make extra savings and
privatisation efforts to finance the 1997 budget properly.
Joschka Fischer, the Greens leader who ranks as one of
Bonn's funniest speakers, had deputies roaring with laughter as
he lashed out at Waigel in the debate.
"You don't deserve the Bundesbank's gold, but a gold medal
for creative accounting," he declared.
( $ = 1.731 German Marks )

Student: Trouble in paradise? Such a story
deserves a double post.

FWIW,platinum hasn't broken through the 420 area.Until it does,it is
either be short or on the sideline with gold.Volatility is increasing,
some kind of resolution is at hand within the next two days.

WW:
I know someone's going to jump on me for this with 2 feet but.....

I quote from one of your many posts last evening:
"Demand what you have paid for!!! "
FINE, I will .....
I paid good money to be able to get onto the Kitco site in order to talk / discuss / analyse etc. GOLD and GOLD related topics.
I'm not trying to stop your postings at all, but IMHO it's getting a lot like a dog with a bone around here, and the bone hasn't been salted even a little bit with GOLD chat. Can we discuss a bit more GOLD please?
Thanks for your consideration.

Analyzing market numbers this morning, London gold is down -1.70, Comex gold is down only -1.30, the XAU is down only -.7, Toronto gold index is down only -45 ( a real down day is at least -100 ) , and Johannesburg gold index is down, I would say that the down forces came from Europe or beyond, not US or Canada traders. I consider that to be bearish.

It's time for a peaceful grassroots movement to petition our
representatives/lawmakers to return our country to one of
"for the people and by the people" and not "to the people by
the government". All it takes for evil to triumph is that
good men say nothing.

Boy, talk about boring! Someone wake me up when the metals move up.....

Stillwater is moving!
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/04/pgms_swc_1.html

Platinum & Palladium soaring again! See the pure platinum & palladium play in US, Stillwater Mining - also Delta Gold ( platinum deposits ) in Zimbabwe. Analysis section:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/analysis.html

Psst . . . Did you know they are talking about snowmobiles over in rec.sports.snowmobiles?! I mean, Jesus Christ, the gall of those guys! Where's their compassion? C'mon now, boys. What good are liberal stormtroopers if they ain't barging in on every conversation in the world involving one or more people? Now let's get over there and raise some consciousnesses! Here are you halos.

Platinum sept. contract down .50,July up 5.30. Spread 17

you halos=your halos

Platinum +5.30, Palladium +13.35, Gold -1.20, Silver +2 cents

NEWLOOKERS:Buy gold at these low prices. Don't wait until
it is fasionable or Barrons/Newsweeks/Time/Money says "Gold
is moving up, get on board" Do it when people will laugh at
you. You will have the last laugh.

Me? I got in so early I still have a profit in some areas.
Ofcourse, I have a genetic defect, I'm a gold bug.

Vronsky @12:10--I am pleased that Platinum is up.Now
can you please do something about gold?

To All -- The Wall Street Journal had an interesting story in the commodities section today. It seems that there are 900 ( PAM7 ) contracts open on Palladium. Problem is, there is only about 553 contracts worth of the 'stuff' around! OPPPPPS! Hmmmmm. Can I interest some PAM7 shorts in some physicals????? SQUEEZE....

D.A. -- Time for some more rational exuberance!

July platinum is on the verge of a breakout 408.50,IMO 410 will be a major buy for the precious metals.Backmonth October went into the positive,393.

AU/AG shorts, the PA/PL story could be in your future too.... Coming soon to a brokerage near you, the scariest movie of the year! "Margin Call", staring the famous "Locked limit up"! 'Money back' if it doesn't scare the wallet out of your pants! ;- ) ) Preview now playing at the MYMEX. Rated 'S', adults only. Some material may not be suited for the faint of heart.

Drat it all. How in Hades can Platinum be up over 5
bucks and Palladium up over 10 bucks, and Gold be
DOWN over a buck? This market is starting to become
down right irritating.

LONDON, June 4 ( Reuter ) - Palladium prices exploded to new

17-year highs on Wednesday in a market severely squeezed by

protracted delays in Russian supplies.

The gold market, however, ignored the excitement in the

platinum group metals ( PGMs ) , as it did the German drama over

plans to revalue gold reserves to qualify for European Monetary

Union.

Palladium, a rare white metal used in electronics, catalytic

converters and dentistry, fixed at $210 an ounce, the highest

ever level since prices were first formally set in 1989.

By contrast its previous fix on Tuesday was $188.50.

``The market is extremely nervous about Russian deliveries.

Palladium and platinum are much higher this morning even though

there has really not being any fresh news,'' said analyst

Hanspeter Hausheer of Swiss Bank Corp.

Platinum, its better-known sister metal, also jumped to fix

at a new 16-month high of $425.00 an ounce, compared to the

previous fixing of $406.50.

Both metals have soared since the start of the year -

palladium is up 85 percent from year's low and platinum is up 25

percent - due to administrative delays in Russian supplies to

key importer Japan.

Russia is the world's biggest producer of palladium and is

second to South Africa in platinum output.

The latest price surge started late on Tuesday as dealers

scrambled to cover short positions by borrowing or buying metal.

``Everyone and I mean everyone is a borrower. If there are no

lenders around all you can do its borrow stuff at very high

lease rates or buy material, which has been driving the price

up,'' a dealer said.

``It has really started to bite now,'' he added, noting that

one-month lease rates had rocketed to 90 percent or higher. In

platinum, the rates were at around 50 percent.

The market would remain extremely volatile as fresh news

emerges from ongoing supply talks between Russian exporter

Almazjuvelirexport ( Almaz ) and Japanese consumers, dealers said.

Both metals whipsawed off highs ahead of the morning fixing

on talk from Tokyo traders that Almaz officials had told

Japaense clients exports were expected to begin around June 20.

In other precious metals markets, gold fixed at $342.40 an

ounce, down $1.15 from the previous fixing and barely changed

from Tuesday's closing level in London.

The silver market was similarly stolid at a virtually

unchanged $4.74/$4.76. --London newsroom +44 171 542 2936

When bullion leads the stocks, watch out. This applies on the downside as well as the upside. With bullion leading the the way down today and the gold stocks reluctant to go much lower, a significant reversal is likely before week's end. Recent action in platinum and palladium gives a hint of what is in store for the gold shorts later this year.

Most of the assets of the trillion dollar MMF industry are in commercial paper. There is a little gov paper but not much. The commercial paper swindle has grown vastly in the last twenty years. Only a few years ago the total issue of commercial paper was only a few 100 million. There was good reason for this, very few companies should receive totally unsecured loans and those loans should be small. With a commercial paper loan the company says. "Give me 95 million now and one year later I will repay you 100 million. I will not give you any collateral and probably will not default unless everyone else does." When the company receives its cash it may use much of it to repay past commercial paper borrowings.

Looking the gold price in the face ( and what an ugly visage ) without some deep pocket ( pockets? ) how is it possible with such a world wide traded commodity, CB's, miners, hoarders, speculators, funds etc.,to keep a price in such a narrow range ( 340-345 ) for such a protracted time? Has anyone seen a name on the pocket?

The squeeze is on the platinum group metals,this will have adverse effect
on the industrial complex of the world.When is the markets going to react
to this event despite lower interest rates being pushed by the CB's.Will
be with interest to see when it is going to play out,IMO it is going to
very soon,

KEVA: Gold is very close to a new outbreak. The price-movements of the last weeks were: up to 360 down to 340 upt to 350 down to 340 up to 347 down to 341 - thats what I call a triangle - the next move will be much more interesting than the last where.

George Cole:

Just a few minutes ago you posted:

With bullion leading the the way down today and the gold stocks reluctant to go much lower, a significant reversal is likely before week's end.

Clarification please...Are the gold stocks going down ( reversal from holding pattern ) or are they goin up ( reversal from the Gold dropping ) ?

Thanks
TTFN

IMO,Platinum has given a buy signal to the precious metal group,July contract
crossed the 410 marker.

George S. Cole: It is quite likely that the price of gold and silver have one more new low to make. This will be unconfirmed with most technical indicators. The TSE Gold Index probably bottomed as did the XAU. The next step, bullion to follow the stocks needs to show itself. I am watching a few things here. 1 ) Gold and Silver usually bottom the same day for a rally. 2 ) the completion of the 5th wave down on both. 3 ) a top in bonds and probably the equity markets. 4 ) an exhaustion bottom, leading to a more more powerful move up or a spike down to the 325 -330 range. ( the closer you buy it to that bottom the happier you will be ) . Bearish sentiment in the metals is rampant, judging by the conversations in this group and the interest displayed by brokers. I am hoping that the end will be the exhaustion route. We will see the metals having a couple of days up and breaking resistance trendlines and no one will believe it or be able to explain. They will describe it as another selling opportunity The spike down scares me more because the first wave was $40 from 420. If this wave down should be the same we may even test lower.

I don't know about the rest of you but I'm getting tired trying to catch falling knives.

Oh my, LOOK AT THAT PAM7!

As I write this XAU is 98.43, the low so far. I will indulge in wishfull thinking and predict it will close higher than that today.

XAU at 98.40. Just wants to fill that gap on the Weekly Chart. Somewhere between 97-98, don't have the exact number on the gap breakout. Anyone have the numbers???

Must irritate the Central Bankers to no extent, that they can't control the price of Platinum and Paladium like they can Gold. Probably searching their vaults to see if they can find any P & P but only that barbaric metal can be found.

I say, can I hear an AMEN for North American Palladium ( PDLCF on
NASDAQ ) , the purest palladium play in NOrth America? It is
still near year lows and thinly traded ( and yes I own shares ) .
Hop on board; Silver and Gold Report still recommends it.

Bryon -XAU gap 96.74

They will not sell platinum and they will not sell palladium and
now they will not sell gold! That is why the writer
( along with more than a few others ) has gone to Europe.
For many months open metal was purchased only as it set
free by falling prices. But the paper contracts are never
made good . People were asked to stand down as the
market came to them . It no longer happens now as your
own banks have said no more. The future will now be as
the past! When is a fact accepted as real? Only when it
comes from a factual source? Or when it is experienced as
a real life event!
For a time in past all new supply was spoken for,
now it is spoken for times two.
Germany will not back the writers again. They will revalue
and hold at all costs! The Swiss will sell a very small amount
in the future at a much different price.
The Dutch will swap no more. These cowboys have cut
and run. South Africa now will compete with the Trader
as a buyer! London has told them!
Then I should think we are done, as people will stand down
NO LONGER.
The Trader is at his cross road, one path and more time
will pass. The other path and the gold market, as all now
know it will exist no more.
Uplink off, find me here.

Junior: August gold down $2.10 today; your probably are right in looking for new lows shortly. But after four consecutive declines, a rally of some kind is quite lightly by week's end. If that bounce fizzles, new lows are are virtually certain.

Steve Kaplan expects that any move to new lows will be very brief considering the enormous physical demand that develops every time the spot price drops below $340.

APH: Thanks.... BT: Thanks.

Big Trader: Refreshing.

Big Trader: Good to hear from you again! But they sure were selling plenty of paper gold today. I too expect things to change radically soon, but the time between now and then will be difficult.

Plaintalker... re yours of Tue 08:34....Thanks for the information. Sounds like you had a great adventure! When you said you bought gold dredges what did they look like, cost etc. Are they legal to use now? I was born in northwestern Ohio, flat corn country, so this area is a treat for me. My next purchase will be a four wheel drive! Cheers.

If you are inclined to consider NA companies with
profitable interests here, who are looking around the
globe at gold projects, then:
Check Kitco "Daily News", "Gold Daily" and page down to
Mazarin Mining.
Also at http://www.excite.com, then hit Business and
Investing and put in ( ME:maz ) and also ( TSE:maz ) at their
quote box for news info.
Nothing certain, but the company rates watching.

Magum Opus of the Oracle of Alberta: "Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt."

"Barron's" was right GOLD IS DEAD. Commodity indexes are breaking down
there is absolutely no inflation, buy Imega! Ha Ha Ha Ha

Tally Ho

IMVHO - Big Trader, ( if the last post is the Same Big Trader as we have had previously ) , Is someone not in control of any major inside info and does not speak for a group of investors as some have entertained. He is merely a prognosticatorsuch as others here who is trying to make a name for him ( her ) self. IMVHO. BBL

Mooney: IT WASN'T ME!!!!.. By the way could you refrase what you said - I did not quite grasp it all. :- )

XAU down 1.9% today, HUI off a more reasonable 0.9%. ABX and NEM hit especially hard.

cyclist @ 13:38 - I see where your reasoning comes from and Gold and Silver may very well rally from this point, BUT, the fact that Silver did not participate in the recent Platinum move means that ( temporarily at least ) Silver has decoupled from Platinum. Platinum is therefore showing strength based solely on supply-demand concerns. ( Would that Gold/Silver would do the same ) . Therefore, this recent Platinum move is not a signal for Gold and Silver as we would normally expect.
Addendum - As I have said in the past, when I believe that Gold has bottomed I will post a pertinant comment made by Louis 16th of France, which comment is, effectually, in operation at the present moment.
Ray - Everybody knows that inflation is dead and that is why the stock market is going to continue parabolic FOREVER!

Byron - Please be more specific in your queries. I don't understand what it is that you don't comprehend!

I've gotten some questions from Blyvoor holder about what the Dbn-Deep
merger would look like. Ive tried to make an analysis based on
absorbing the Buffels shares 77 for 100 and the Blyvoor at 5 to one.
Then Ive looked at the new company on the basis of cost of reserves, $/oz
and the cost of capacity $/oz of gold gold production. The new company
seems seriously undervalued - like the cheapest in the world by a long
shot. Comparisons are given with Barrick and a few other RSA mines.
Harmony for example is also extremely cheap


-------Shares,mill------Reserves,000 oz---Capacity,000oz

Buffels---11.12------------2.2-*------------273
Blyvoor--50.77------------8.2-** ----------247
Durban D--9.55-----------7.7-***---------176****
Total----------------------18.1--------------696

* 1.1 surface
** 1.0 surface
*** 0.4 surface
**** after expansion sept 1997
New DD shares = 11.12/1.3 + 50.77/5 +9.55 = 27.84 mill
shares
New DD capitalization = 27.84 * 21/4.47= 131 mill$

New cost of reserves = 131/18.1 = 7.2$/oz
New cost of capacity = 131 mill/696000 = 188$/oz

Comparison----Cost reserves-----Cost Capacity
Barrick-------------175-------------2834
Joel------------------48-------------1700
Harmony--------------9--------------428
DbnDeep-------------7--------------188

In the spirit of Tort, I have decided to contribute something to cheer things up - for our very dear friends the shorts!

BT's comment about the South Africans made me wonder about something. Nelson Mandela has made a point of continuing ties with countries and organizations that supported the ANC during their time in exile. Just suppose a few chinese central bankers dropped by one day to very helpfully point out that Nelson could do himself and his loyal friends a big favour by saving the poor gold shorts from their compulsive, self destructive behavior. Particularly in light of new China Russia friendliness. ( Surely not extending to palladium markets!! :-o )

I don't have any information to confirm this kindly thought but it does warm my heart and so I thought I would pass it on! :- )

George S. Cole: Given BT's timing ( posting just before big spikes ) it will be particularly interesting to watch gold market behavior over the next couple of days. The last spike ( after a post by SimpleMan ) fizzled out quickly. I suspect that there will now be a move of sufficient magnitude to test the intestinal fortitude of the shorts to the utmost. I am thinking it is positioned to take advantage of your observation that gold is due for a rally having gone 4-5 consecutive down days.

How well it holds up will give a good indication of where the hedge funds are at, assuming BT is correct in his implication that CB's are now standing down. This could be the "crossroads" that BT may be finding himself at. "Interesting times" indeed!

Disappointed ( 9:49 ) Why should anyone jump on yopu for saying the obvious about WW being a total bore....on purpose!...Sorry Tort but many in the field of law in the USA are parasites feeding off the sheep...He is purposely tryin to be a bore and irritant and any who respond to him are only playin his sick little game...

Byron - BTW - Re: Your 15:01 - IF the manipulation theory that many here are inclined to believe is true, I don't feel that the powers that be would try to extend control over ALL commodities. Throughout the centuries Gold has been the political metal and therefore is the significant one to control. Silver was linked with gold as a monetary metal until the recent ( last 15-20 years ) campaign to totally discount and refute this age old concept with the modern, 'Silver is only an industrial metal', brainwashing technique used so effectively by ( ? ) . In this way the control of inflation and fiat money has been made much simpler. No matter what happens to the price of any other commodity, as long as Gold is docile, inflation is under control. ( Witness the 25% appreciation of crude oil vs. the price of Gold last year - inflation - No!
Byron - Have a nap, and then see if you can make out what I'm saying in my posts. :- )

JIN: Thanks for the e-mail and I'll be getting back to you soon!

Hope the big guy is right. Go for the gold.

Hope the big guy is right. Go for the gold.

Ted: I expect Karl Malone to have fire in his eyes tonight. The guy with neon hair is in for trouble.

Mooney@ 16:12 :IMO the lows are in that is contraire to my own projection as the lows for bullion would be sometimes next week.If platinum is withheld from the marketplace in the coming days, the ramification to the stockmarket could become quite interesting to say the least.This action
could have an influence to the other metals as well.

YES!

Would someone post B.T. last few posts or dates so I can look them up.

The following are the comments I copied as written on KITCO.




Date: Sat Dec 7 11:50
Big Trader ( again@no lower! ) :
TO ALL:
I want to thank my friend who post here on Kitco for leting me use his mail. He wanted meto add something to the group because I am, just that, a big trader ( name is not my idea ) . Hope to add a something each saturday.
Last Tue. Dec/3 I made a "no@lower" post. Myself and a group are indeed placing open
orders for Feb/97 gold on any breaks below $370.00 and will continue to buy each day under that price ( for weeks if allowed ) . We can and will call most or all of these contracts if the market doesn't rise enough for a rollover. Our cost and fees is such that it's
easier to buy paper here than physicals in asia because of the markup and comex is the
only area I would trade here .The only problem for the comex will be geting the shorts to deliver enough warehouse approved deposit receipts.Correct me if I'm wrong but they only have a few hundred thousand ozs for ready delivery. I will keep you posted. A note to the Old Man, you may find it hard to "roll off a log". Thank you all and Kitco for this area. ( end of quoted post )


( REPOST FROM BT )




Date: Thu Feb 27 1997 23:10

Big Trader ( the writer! ) :
Let me clear up a few things. I am not the "Big Trader"! He cannot speak or write english and does not/would not post
here. He has a need to get "thoughts" to other people. I do not do well with english either. My relations with him are
private and restrict me from posting my own thoughts. If I seem to reply to someones post it is to clarify further for other
eyes.
As we are guests here I should pay my way so let me toss out a fact that is stranger than fiction. Do some research first.
Search your books and papers, ask your advisers and letter writers, look at all of the charts. Those of you who are rich
and "on the inside" of gold companies and gold traders, ask if anyone alive had ever seen gold trade in the present
volumes that have not been seen in history. The shocking truth is that more gold has just been traded than is held in most
of the central banks. So much so that even the 100+ year old london gold pool was forced to admit to trading it's share!
I should think that the big investors on comex would have known this was going to happen! No? It could only have
been the people who were about to do this buying that would know ahead of time. Yes, only they would know that a
"once in a lifetime" buying spree was about to take hold.
Will gold go back down in price? They don't realy care!
Only on kitco can a trader find such good info. I advise every gold trader in the world to access this site every day!
There is only one person who knows me at this site. That person is the soul of discretion and integrity. Someday I will
contact him again
and he will learn my real name. May the force be with you, and keep your eye on london! thank you



Big Trader ( ( the greedy paid ) ) :
They thought noone had enough to stop the game. Soon a brief pause then the game continues. We will be ready.



Date: Fri Feb 28 1997 00:22
Big Trader ( the writer ) :
last, To all who use me, the 23:10 is not the trader. Will use uplink, not kitco again. Know me now, "I AM THE
WESTISLAND".
DONE


Date: Tue Apr 01 1997 14:48
Big Trader ( @far east ) :

Have taken much gold these days. CB games over now. Mr. Clinton and associates doing same.


Date: Tue Apr 01 1997 15:08
GFD ( Big Trader Post Confirmation ) :

Eldorado: Agreed. We need to wait for confirmation within 24 hours if it is a BT post -
unless something happens in Asia tonight... The post is a bit short and it is hard to
say if it is indeed authentic but if it is I would guess a close above 355 tomorrow....


Date: Tue Apr 01 1997 15:32
The Writer ( one-westisland@worldnet.att.net ) :

GFD: I will keep this address open as long as possible.
If you have questions I will answer on Kitco #2 under WESTLAND.
I t may take time for me to get the answers. All questions must come from you.




Date: Wed Apr 02 1997 11:49
The Writer ( thoughts! ) :

GFD: I have two email from you, no more.
We are at the end of a long travel. The road now forks, what way
to go? Many will chuse the bad path and the american family will
hurt as the world changes. Another writes, do you think as this?

Understand, that over the past few years physical gold has been
locked to the currencies more so than when it was used to back them.
Western traders have done just what the money printers wanted,
they accepted paper forms as gold. The lure was greed and it worked
very well for the printers. The future was always the key
"someday the metal would rise and a great payoff would be at hand".
The years have come and gone and no payoff, no 500/600/700/ gold.
The truth, there will be no payoff for paper traders.
One thing has happened that will "change everything". The PHYSICAL
GOLD MARKET HAS BEEN CORNERED! Any amount of large physical sales that
come to market can be taken. To a traders eyes this cannot be, why is
the price not going straight up? Why should it, westerners are still
trying to rid themselves of metal and hold forward gold ( that is not
cornered ) and any other form of leveraged gold. There is no shortage
of paper, but there is now a real shortage of gold! Anyone who thinks
that the central banks and their billion ozs of gold are a threat to
this market have no idea how big real on/off market trading is.
So, how do we see when gold will rise in all currencies? A slow fall
in the price of paper gold and a opposite spike in real gold price will
make westerners leave all paper and try to buy real metal. The rush to
make good on forward sales will cause the market to lock, overnight.
No bank failures, no depression, no stock market crash, no war,
no inflation, just a worldwide shutdown of all "on market gold trading".
That includes all forms. The western traders will still own all of their mining stocks
and gold and futures, they just won't be allowed to use them. But don't you see, they didn't
want real gold anyway!
It was always the others that needed it,,,,,,right?


Date: Wed Apr 02 1997 12:38
GFD ( The Writer ) :

The last post by "The Writer" ( 11:49 ) is authentic ( as far as my communication with him ) .
His post is interesting. I have involvement with a small mining play and there has been some
discussion by investors whether to keep it private and collect gold dividends or go public and
collect paper. Some are very sypathetic with The Writer's view of the world.


Date: Thu Apr 03 1997 12:50
The Writer ( thoughts! ) :

GFD: I have two more mail and some answers.
We speak more freely now, draw close and think. Who will stand first,
who will be last? The writer will say my thoughts.

If a person has more than enough for life others will receive it in time. But time is the enemy
of all things created by humans. All who live now will see change, as those before us. In your
history one can hear the voices of many others who lost all things as time marched on. If you
are of a present day mind your thoughts are only of the here and now. If this be true then draw
your sword and make ready to battle. Time and change are about to attack your wealth. There are
some who have eyes that see a thousand years past, they know of gold! Know me now, time has
tested it, and lost! Gold is not money, not currency, not an investment,it is wealth.
The second american family is here, and time and change are ready for
battle, are you?

Answers:
You own a house and one day you are given a clear deed and told to move out. Another now lives
there for free. The deed may be used as currency if another will accept it. All know you are
wealthy, the deed says so! The deed is clear, but is it free? Are you wealthy or is your wealth
only in the mind of others? Much of american wealth is truly the thoughts of a nation, drifting
on the wind!

Why would rent out a house for less than the going rate? If there are so many for sale
just like yours, why not sell and put the money in the bank at a higher return? All know
you can buy it back at a much cheaper price! Or is the lease rate low because you know you
MAY NOT GET IT BACK AT ALL if you sold? Some realtors only trade cheap property, know also
one who has traded with the sun!

When? You ask. Look in a mirror, be that person from the west, he will
lead first! And that same person did supply the shortfall for he holds paper as proof!


Date: Thu Apr 03 1997 20:37
GFD ( More On Thoughts ) :

So far I have asked The Writer four questions, three of which he seems to have answered:

1 ) What did he mean by an earlier quote about our "currency being in jail". I believe his ( partial ) answer the paragraph about having the deed to a house ( gold ) but not physical posession. However, I feel that this is a superficial interpretation. The real answer is the last ( beautiful ) sentence. Manias are nothing more than than "thoughts blowing in the wind".

"You own a house and one day you are given a clear deed and told to move out. Another now lives there for free. The deed may be used as currency if another will accept it. All know you are wealthy, the deed says so! The deed is clear, but is it free? Are you wealthy or is your wealth only in the mind of others? Much of american wealth is truly the thoughts of a nation, drifting on the wind!"

The thing that suffers most upon the collapse of a mania is credibility - or credit, financially speaking. Historically, the Bank of England just about folded several times in it's history and was only saved by boat loads of gold, literally - excluding one that sank!! So if the paper goes poof what is your credit rating. To put it another way - what are you worth?? James Grant's book about Banking and Bonds is called "Money of the Mind". So where WILL america's thoughts drift when a storm comes?

2 ) Where is the gold coming from to meet physical ( jewelery, etc ) demand? I believe his answer is bullion dealers and banks:

"Why would rent out a house for less than the going rate? If there are so many for sale just like yours, why not sell and put the money in the bank at a higher return? All know you can buy it back at a much cheaper price! Or is the lease rate low because you know you MAY NOT GET IT BACK AT ALL if you sold? Some realtors only trade cheap property, know also one who has traded with the sun! "

Intitially, when I read BT's references to "westerners" foolishly exchanging gold for paper ( forward sales, etc. ) I superficially interpreted this to mean ma and pa dumping their eagles for Microsoft or something. However, Vieserre's excellent posts over the last day have got me thinking that the real price setting and control of physical gold is the bullion dealers and their associated banks. And what has everyone been doing lately? Gold Loans, forward selling, etc. This implies that the swissies and the brits have ( had ) a lot more of the good stuff than any statistics indicate. These are probably private stocks that were off the books - such as hoards from European nobility, etc....

3 ) The third question was when would the bubble pop. I believe his answer is in the third paragraph:

"When? You ask. Look in a mirror, be that person from the west, he will lead first! And that same person did supply the shortfall for he holds paper as proof! "

This is a bit more straight forward, particularly if "the west" is really the bullion dealers, CB's, banks, etc. So what happens if someone's friendly banker calls a gold loan in this superheated and obviously distorted environment??

Have to get going. Will check in later tonight or tomorrow!!
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Date: Sun Apr 06 1997 20:25
The Writer ( Thoughts! ) :

GFD: Yes, you are very close. I receive one mail. CMAX: Yes, you are thinking also.
I hear the western countries have 300/400 million people. You know they are real.
All other countries have several billion. The Big Trader knows they are real and
is close to some of them. He is small and slow, but many hands can hold a large
load!

Can you think this can happen? Another hand writes.

Gold is so old. Such a rich history. An educated western mind cannot begin to
understand it! We live in a time of closed thought and controlled perception.
How could we have known that two thirds of humanity would still think of
gold as wealth. It's not that they are right or wrong to think this way, it's that
we want them to work for us! That is the problem! And when they worked for
us we paid them! And who in the hell would have thought that they would
have used so much of that pay to buy gold! Some bought in tiny amounts and
some bought in large amounts.
This started with the new world trading order that came into being about six
years ago. By now that gold is so spread out it would take 20 years and 5
small armies to get it back, I think.

An interesting look, yes. Now the writer gives a view for tomorrow.

A western cowboy phrase, "cut and run" ! You have heard it before?
Many had thought that the physical market would always have a great supply.
The future selling during the last few months should have pushed the real
price thru 300 by now. At that level most of the contracts could have been
closed out. Now the buying is done and the vol is drying up! I hear that some
do not want to play this game any more. This week I expect to see a cowboy!
Date: Sun Apr 06 1997 21:50
GFD ( Another Hand ) :

It is interesting to note that BT has a western friend who included some of his own thoughts in the middle paragraph starting with "Gold is so old. Such a rich history. An educated western mind cannot begin to understand it! We live in a time of closed thought and controlled perception."

In my reading and surfing I have noted that VERY informed persons with apparently close connections with the intelligence community have been concerned about the manipulation and control of the public's perception of current ( and past ) events. This is true also of sophisticated observers of the spooks. "Another Hand"s comment about "controlled perception" makes me wonder if BT has an advisor with a ( western ) intelligence background.

Hows THAT for reading between the lines! And going waaay out on a limb!! ;- )





Date: Sun Apr 06 1997 21:34
GFD ( The Writer ) :

I would like to confirm that this is a BT/The Writer post as I only sent one email to him after his last post. I primarily enquired as to whether I was close or not in my ( Thurs Apr 03 20:37 ) interpretation of his last post. It would appear that I was. It would also appear that CMAX is *close* with his Sat 23:11 post.

I also enquired he had also sent a post by "SimpleMan ( faraway ) Thurs Apr 03 16:27" which implied that we had 6 to 8 weeks to get our affairs in order. I am not sure I have an answer to that but his most recent post just about says the same thing.

The key thing here implied by his posts is that this will be a bullion dealer/banker problem first or that the crises implied by BT will be triggered by the bankers wanting their gold back due to loss of "confidence". This is the historical mechanism by which mainias collapse and cause economic trauma. Confidence in credit is shattered by some speculative bubble popping and everyone starts calling in loans. As I said in my last BT post, several of these manias just about finished the Bank Of England - the primary CB's these days.

Some have rightly questioned here why someone like a BT would want to post to us bugs here at kitco - other than a shared philosophy. I have wondered this too. However, if we are talking about a banking problem this may be an excellent forum if you know for a fact that brother Al ( Greeenspan ) is lurking hereabouts ( and even reputed to have made posts here under the handle of "Oracle" ) .

If I were Bt I would want to make a killing without killing the system. What is the point otherwise?? He has implied that he has taken his position and is just waiting to cash in. If he is impatient he can try - every so discretely - to rattle the cage a bit. If Al is indeed lurking and sees what BT is getting at he will now realise he may have a "system" problem with respect to the bullion dealers and their associated banks.

In any case the primary body that will be dealing with this is the BIS ( Bank for International Settlements - CB country club ) . The BIS is VERY secretive. I would be shocked if there was any news leaked. If there was it would come from Europe, most likely London.

However, when you have a credit crises interest rates spike. Keep an eye on the kitco lease rates page for any twitches. If BT is correct you will see open interest dry up and lease rates spiking to historic highs ( 6% ?? ) .

Date: Wed Apr 09 1997 11:11
The Writer ( More Thoughts! ) :

The Writer ( Thoughts! ) :
GFD: I have other mail.
Anyone not allowed to read this? Stranger talk, Perhaps?

London unspins, but the World does not notice. Tiger wiskers,
are ground fine and prepared for the feast. Eat carefully, West.

Questions:
1. Who would be a goldfish?
2. Do the Others know?





Date: Wed Apr 09 1997 11:06
The Writer ( Thoughts! ) :

GFD: I have one mail.
As a group, paper makers are very strong. But one has "cut and run"!
He has come to town and wants to join us! What is this? I see other
cowboys "coming down the trail"! For many years they had fun. Now
a tiger chases them into town for help.

Can anyone allowed to read this? Strange talk, Yes?

people told them not to take it under 365. Well they did and
look at it! Now the fools want to unbolt the tables and chairs and
sell them to save their skins. 15 bucks down and how many billions
under the table. It's gona look like a giveaway or a sellout. Heads
are going to roll in the alley when london unspins this.

Answers:
1. We should not speak of this.
2. This is only in the minds of traders and thinkers. It has not.

Date: Wed Apr 09 1997 11:43
GFD ( Truth and Consequences ) :

The post from The Writer at 11:06 is legitimate. The second post at 11:06 is a stinker - along with Ivor Bigbody. It would be nice if Bart would take imposters and make them take a long walk on a short pier...

However I DO find it interesting that the fake BT and Mr Bigbody are saying more about themselves than I suspect they want to - Monty Python indeed! Well it will be interesting to see what movie Mr Python will make out of the mess over in London!! So Ivor, how's the weather in London these days??

Date: Wed Apr 09 1997 11:59
GFD ( Who has questions? I have answers!! ) :

I don't have time to properly comment on the legitimate ( 11:06 ) post from The Writer, however he did give two answers to questions that I did post to him:

1 ) This was a question about parties that were rumoured to be big players once upon a time. I will respect BT's privacy here and "not talk of this".

2 ) The second question was whether the US was writing calls. "It has not". When I thought about it I realised they could not because it would be illegal to have the calls excercised...

"people told them not to take it under 365. Well they did and look at it!"

My thoughts exactly! :- )


Date: Wed Apr 09 1997 19:14
GFD ( Thoughts ) :

For those who are interested here are my comments on BT/The Writer...

Firstly, I made sure that Bart had both our real email addresses so that imposter issues could be adjudicated by him if things got out of hand. Having a password for handles would be the way to go for the longer term.

It appears that The Writer is restricted as to what he can say publicly and so the delphic quality of his posts... What he is saying seems to be relevant to the very private London market and not to the open markets per se. There may be lurkers out there that he is targeting besides the usual suspects on this site.

Most of The Writers posts have preceeded big developments in the markets within 24 hours. As far as I can see, this is not true for his last post ( Sunday 20:25 ) . However, what I AM seeing is the markets trading within an EXTREMELY tight range this week, particularly in New York. I wonder if this is deliberate ( but covert ) damage control while some mess is being straightened out in London...

In an earlier post I had said that one of the signs of problems in London would be open interest drying up and lease rates spiking up. Glenn posted today ( 09:45 ) that open interest for the COMEX gold is at the lowest level since 1995 so one possible symptom is in place. The Writer never seems to post unless there is something ( not necessarily obvious ) happening to back up his posts and so this might be it for his last post.

"people told them not to take it under 365. Well they did and look at it! Now the fools want to unbolt the tables and chairs and sell them to save their skins."

This may imply a selloff of US and European stocks and/or bonds in the next day or so other assets to cover delivery requirements in London.

"15 bucks down and how many billions under the table. It's gona look like a giveaway or a sellout. Heads are going to roll in the alley when london unspins this"

This whole post seems to be about the problems the bullion dealers and banks are going to face when people discover that their gold was sold for peanuts. However, this may be a little too superficial. BT made a post a day before Bre-X was first halted that had a line about governments confiscating mines. Which could be what happens to Bre-X over the next few months.

So I wonder about "billions under the table. It's gona look like a giveaway or a sellout".


Date: Sun Apr 13 1997 21:49
The Writer ( Thoughts! ) :

GFD: I have four mail, one good, two dum and one different!

Ted B. : "a light vault holds much paper" !


Answers:
1. No settle, it spread far and wide. The price must slowly fall
to stop a problem.
2. Table? A Euro size trouble, all will read of it.
3. No. A plain thought from a another .
4. You are seeing it now.

I will rest now


Date: Sun Apr 13 1997 22:55
GFD ( Thoughts ) :

will provide a decode of the writer's latest in a couple of hours as I don't have the time right now. The cryptice answeres are to questions
I emailed him.

Date: Mon Apr 14 1997 00:55
GFD ( Thoughts ) :

I sent four questions to BT/The Writer and a couple of dummy emails ( just to keep imposters hopping! ) .

1 ) I asked him if there would be a cash settlement or would there be something like a short squeeze. His answer: "No settle, it spread far and wide. The price must slowly fall to stop a problem." This implies that there is not one person or group but rather a large number of parties who want their gold in a sock, but that the paper ( "open" ) markets are being manipulated to "stop a problem" - gold loans and forward selling out of control?? Mooney in his very interesting 23:15 post may be close to the truth.

2 ) I asked him to elaborate on what he meant by "billions under the table" in his last quote. I wondered if there would be a big scandal coming because dealers have loaned ( effectively sold ) gold that they did not own. His answer: "Table? A Euro size trouble, all will read of it."

3 ) I asked him if I was off the mark in stating that "another hand" in his last post had an intelligence backgroud. I was. "No. A plain thought from a another"

4 ) Later I asked him whether it was possible that some of the selloff in the stock markets was in part attributable to people scrambling to sell other assets to meet their obligations in the gold scene: "You are seeing it now."

Date: Mon Apr 14 1997 01:08
GFD ( Thoughts on Thoughts ) :

The Writer responds to my questions as well as well as posting his own thoughts. So if you see a post from him with numbered answers they are in response to my questions. All this is to deal with the impostor situation.

I think that Ted Butler and Mooney are on to something which elaborates what BT/The Writer has been talking about for some time.

The one thing that is a fly in the ointment for me is that he implies that the price of gold is being held down as part of some crises management excercise. Most likely the European gold houses and their CB's are in the throes of an "unpleasantness" that eventually will be publicised. Loans and forward sales may be constrained and gold will start a very solid bull market.

I suspect that gold may be flat to down for a few more weeks but not months.

TTFN

Date: Wed Jun 04 1997 15:23
BIG TRADER ( THOUGHTS! ) :

They will not sell platinum and they will not sell palladium and
now they will not sell gold! That is why the writer
( along with more than a few others ) has gone to Europe.
For many months open metal was purchased only as it set
free by falling prices. But the paper contracts are never
made good . People were asked to stand down as the
market came to them . It no longer happens now as your
own banks have said no more. The future will now be as
the past! When is a fact accepted as real? Only when it
comes from a factual source? Or when it is experienced as
a real life event!
For a time in past all new supply was spoken for,
now it is spoken for times two.
Germany will not back the writers again. They will revalue
and hold at all costs! The Swiss will sell a very small amount
in the future at a much different price.
The Dutch will swap no more. These cowboys have cut
and run. South Africa now will compete with the Trader
as a buyer! London has told them!
Then I should think we are done, as people will stand down
NO LONGER.
The Trader is at his cross road, one path and more time
will pass. The other path and the gold market, as all now
know it will exist no more.
Uplink off, find me here.

It amazes me as I scroll back over the last 3-4 weeks comments, as to how this grand Gold discussion site has become a forum involved in the mission to convert a weine wacker to normalcy. C'est La Vie!

I think it was Ray who posted a comment on longer term options yesterday. This morning I decided to bid for some Dec 98 400s. The offer at the time was 470. With GC8Z around 366. I put in a bid at 400 and was surprised to get filled within in an hour. Whats next? Terms and put em on yer VISA card? .... Should have put in a bid at 350 - 380. Think its time to buy some more.

Mooney: Au contraire. More like c'est la guerre. ..... and would you refrase that earlier post.... I didn't understand it all either .... ( :- ) )

THE CENTER CANNOT HOLD!

Was there any significance to todays close in PGMs? Front month PL traded off at the close with the out month up 2.65 or so. While front month PA was up 20 or so and is still in heavy backwardation and getting worse. Would seem to be an excellent time for the PM shorts, with the really big cajones, to begin taking a renewed in interest in keeping them attached. Paradigm shift anyone?

Notnick @ 17:15 - Thanks for the latest summary about BT. Would you say that those posts back up my 15:59?

Mooney..... It would be fair to say that I am very, very confused.

GFD: We are on the same wavelength regarding the likelihood of an imminent gold rally. In this bear market bullion has usually rallied after 4 down days, but there have been occasions where we had 5 or even 6 consecutive declines before the yellow stuff picked up. So while the odds favor a rally tomorrow, there could still be another downer or two to go.

Reb- Karl Malone was born and raised just 4 miles up the road from me
and we attended the same university. Some fine guy!!

John Disney- agree with the values you calculated. Durban Deep and Harmony are exceptional values. Course ain't nobody got any money left
to buy gold or shares. Damn shame. One of these days shorts are gona pay! Thank goodness for Rebold or I would be broke. Course if AU does move I might own the world. Jest dreamin.

Tally Ho

The selling is over

Just stopped in to view the damage having worked all day--rare occurrence for a lawyer. Ted, got you email. Thanks for the cool remarks. Will respond this evening when my kids get off the phone. Pretty discouraging market, this metals game. I am seeing too much evidence to believe that gold is going down for the count. I belive that today's getting knocked out of bed will only make gold's desire to get back in bed and in a bigger bed ( maybe the old king size bed ) ; sounds kind of kinky somehow but I sense the luster returning to the old yellow bars.

Up .20 in Australia. At least someone knows value when they see it.

Tort: We started the day fallin out of bed and never got off the floor..
Reb ( 16:57 ) For Tort and my sake I hope you are right about "the Mailman"
and that thingy with the neon hair...Bein from the windy city what's yer take on "Ryno"....is he finished???

REB: Look at that...we double posted...

Ted: Ryno? Who/what is that?

Palladium is going to pass up gold at this rate.

REB: Ryne Sandberg fer Christ Sakes...Cubs...Chicago...Hello...

GEORGE S COLE: George, help me. Please read the following which I have been thinking about for two days. ( Article from Financial Review ) . Very heavy stuff for them to admit this! My contacts who invest in gold at Rothschild's nearly choked! You comments please:

"Gasp, oh Lord," said UBS's Mr Smith. "Whether EMU flies, falls or just hops along, the role of gold for central banks in Europe will never be the same -- as large, as passive -- again.

"EMU presages the opening of a freeway in gold's demonetisation.

"Gold's journey from money to mere commodity [is under way]."

The central bankers "having thought the pragmatic thought . . . will not unthink it", Mr Smith said.

By this, Mr Smith meant that the role of gold as a reserve asset was being seriously questioned.

After the end of the gold standard 30 years ago, the ballooning of derivatives markets as a new source of hedging all sorts of risks, the floating of currencies, the massive opportunity cost of holding gold of $US15 billion ( $19.6 billion ) a year for the European central banks alone, Switzerland's imminent dilution of the link between the Swiss franc and gold and Germany's latest attempt to use gold to plug budget deficits, it is no big surprise that the view of the role of gold in 1997 might differ from the view in 1967.

Chase Manhattan's Mr Mehta added that downsizing of central bank gold reserves was not a European Union issue only.

"It's now orthodoxy to manage [lend or sell] gold reserves actively.

"The central bankers we have spoken to over recent years realise that gold is effectively a depreciating asset and without a monetary role," a London-based metals specialist for Merrill Lynch, Mr Ted Arnold, wrote earlier this year.

"It is really a question of how to dispose of this asset and switch it into other more liquid and high yielding assets, while at the same time keeping politicians and the financially unsophisticated general public happy."

Gold is at the crossroads. Whether gold is on the demonetisation road as silver was back in 1870 is the primary issue.

If so, the gold price over the next decade will most likely head the same way as the silver price did between 1870 and 1910, when the impact of its demonetisation hit home. Silver, back then, lost two-thirds of its value.

REB: From yer palladium remark do I take it you are becomming pessimistic about Gold or somethin...or are you just wildly bullish on Palladium....

I went to a futures seminar a few years ago given by one John Hill and his daughter. He made a good point when he illustrated two graphs one where there had been a protracted decline followed by flatness and one where there had been a protracted advance followed by flatness. He asked whether we thought the mkts would reverse or continue in the prevailing direction. Most said reversal. He pointed out that this was incorrect as if a market is really improperly priced at a given level selling or buying will quickly ensue to reverse whatever excess. Gold and silver have been basically flat for nine weeks after a decline. Using John's analysis it looks like further losses will ensue. Maybe to truly bottom out we need to retest the 1985 lows. Hope I am wrong and GS Cole is right. But the mkt action feels lower and the length of the sideways movement makes me feel it could do so significantly. Hopefully a spike bottom. The only bullish point is that sometimes my feelings are a good contrary indicator.

We are so frustrated with the metals that staying in when the true bull occurs will be difficult given uniquely frustrating experiences with this market over the last three years.

Ted: Oh.....sorry. [g]

Gold has fallen a decent amount since my last post on Friday evening. Today's closing action looked slightly exhaustive. This doesn't mean I would go long here but rather let the market rally tomorrow and then short it again. A bigger rally may take place next week but the final low is still a couple weeks away. I am bullish on Gold during the months of July and August. How bullish depends on how far down we can go during June.
All in all today was rather dull with all the action during the first 1/2 hour and last 15 minutes.

Glenn: As usual good post! What do you think that low for Gold will be?

Virtual Eagles eye view of global gold paradigm. Is it a plot to create a single world currency? Erudite & exhaustive analysis by Oracle of Alberta:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta604.html

Comments on Steve's post for GS Cole RE Gold demonetization which if like silver will mean a 2/3 decline in gold over time; ( or has the decline already occurred through derivitive sales ie 850 to 325-400 area. ) IMHO Wishful Ted Arnold of Merrill Lynch says "CBs want to switch into higher yielding assets. I dont understand his argument as CBs earn money off of gold loans and option sales. Is this less than they could earn than by selling gold and buying debt. Ted Arnold is always a gold bear and pro financial but has his overzealousness caught him in a contradictory argument. IE CBs want higher yielding assets but TED fails to mention the yield they receive on their gold. Or do the newly minted MBAs rule the roost and are gold haters. Experience of the last 15 years could make one that way.

Hey Ted : Could you ask Big Trader if he voted for reform??? I wish he would reform the price of gold!!!I wonder what theory he has, on what will trigger the Dow in one direction and gold in the other???

MGraves: We've turned the corner! EBN Gold is up a nickle...holy cow!....
The word in Cape Breton is that "big trader" is Alexa.....Talk about shootin yerself in the foot...now we have NO representation...duh...You should have seen the front page of the Cape Breton Post yesterday...puke!
ISLAND GOES NDP....should have read: ISLAND GOES TO HELL...

WW your question regarding how much the CBs earn from gold is very interesting. My question is why would Merrill rep be trying to imply Central Banks earn nothing from gold when in fact they do.

Ted, the guy in blue coming up to your door is the mailman, not WW; don't shoot him. I'm off for the evening duties. Keep gold afloat while I am out.

Tort: Yer too late...I just blew his head off!

XAU - The low for tomorrow should come in between 96.75 - 96.20. If for some reason it opens below 96.20 there could be a severe drop. If it holds a powerful rally over the next couple months with gains of 25%+ will result.
Gold - Based on monthly Gann charts this month's low should no lower than 336 base June Contract. Any rallies will not exceed 400. The final low will be near 325 in July 1998 one year from now. At this point time and price will come into equilibrium. This chart is based on the 1976 low.

Many have been watching the stellar price rise in KRY. Heres WHY:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/grandich_512.html
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/grandich_jan.html
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/goldbug418.html

Ted : The seagull is laughing all the way home!!!!

Steve: Ted Arnold asnd Andy Smith have been talking this way for a long time, and their point of view probably is the conventional wisdom in the American financial community. Most of the shorts share their point of view. A few comments:

This argument is self-contradictory. How can the CBs complain about the lack of profit on their gold holdings when they themselves ( some of them anyway ) are doing all they can drive the yellow metal down. This is just PR proppoganda, not serious analysis. it is also self-serving since Merril Lynch is believed to be one of the biggest of the gold shorts. The real reason they talk this way is that they know a rise in gold would cost them much monry on their shorts. It would also be very bearish for financial assets -- their primary business.

CB attitudes towrds gold differ trmendously. The strongest gold opponents are Anglo CBs -- the U.S., Britain, Canada, Australia, and some smaller European CBs. But the French, German, and Asian CBs have a very different attitude.

This "down for the count" attitude towards gold reminds me the conventional wisdom about stocks just before the market took off in 1982 -- down for the count.

Once the dominant investment paradigm of low inflation at all costs, privatization, and steady movement to the political right is shattered ( as I think it will be in the near future ) investor and CB attitudes will undergo a sea change.

Glenn: I think you are right about gold going lower, but I wouldn't want to be short at these levels. The risk/reward ratio very unfavorable -- gold has much more upside than downside at these levels. You stand to lose much more if you are wrong that you will make if you are right.

Bernie: For info on gold dredges check California mining journal at your local newstand or library also http://www.altavista.digital.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&what=web&fmt=.&q=keene%2Bdredge All sierra streams were mined by the 49 ers, again during the great depression and starting in the 1950s through today they have all been dredged and redredged, properly done dredging gets every grain of gold in the stream and is only graduly replentished from the hillsides. As a matter of historical interest there was one crevace in canyon creek ( south of Laporte Ca ) frm which the 49ers " in 1851" took over $3 million in gold when gold was $18 per ounce. Good luck.

Sorry about the spelling and grammar errors in my last post. By mistake hit the submit button before spell checking. But I think all will understand my meaning

George S Cole: You are forgiven...misery loves company...MGraves: Is that the same gull I just blew out of the sky?...Tort: nothin yet! let's get it on...GO JAZZ!...and GOLD!

For John Disney: Thank you for the Durban Deep information. Do you have any estimate as to what the production cost per oz. will be for the "new Durban Deep" ?

Hi John - do you know if Durban Deep and / or Joel are hedged?

George S. Cole: Ref - "This is just PR proppoganda, not serious analysis. it is also self-serving since Merril Lynch ( ML ) is believed to be one of the biggest of the gold shorts. The real reason they talk this way is that they know a rise in gold would cost them much monry on their shorts. It would also be very bearish for financial assets -- their primary business."

George, you have NO IDEA how close to the mark you are. ML is far and away the world's largest marketers of GOLD CALL OPTIONS. Their clients are the principal Central World Banks. Merrrill derives an obcene amount of profits selling gold calls to the hapless and naive public, who innocently believe that the markets are not manipulated. The public will always be fleeced by Wall Street. And there are two ways to ensure the SHEARING ( like in sheep ) : 1 ) ML sells CB gold bullion as agent, when the price creeps up, and 2 ) ML's so-called analysts pooh-pooh gold investments in the interim. During all this time the SEC and the NASD look elsewhwere. There is much truth that some are above the law.

In effect Merrill is an interested party protecting its large clients: CENTRAL BANKS. And who gets the short end of the stick?? Ironically, Merrill's HERD!

Glenn, thanks for your updates from the pits. I believed a while ago that Gold will have to bottom at or near 325. and then the rally could begin, and still think this will happen. I am very comfortable with this scenario.
Could make the cheap calls I want to buy even cheaper.
A couple of months ago platinum was about the same price as Gold and now it's $85. higher. Why should Russia ever go back to dumping cheap platinum, when they can control the market with a little well timed disiplin. They have control of supply, but on the other side there is no control for demand. Similar to the current Coffee squeeze.
Gold should turn late June and follow behind platinum.
I agree with G.S.C. that probably still downside on Gold but getting very
risky to short. There is a lot of FALSE Gold out there ( borrowed/leased/sold-forward/futures/options ) , and I don't believe it can be rolled over indefinitely. This will certainly help the Gold rally.

Now this is very interesting! The evening's discussion is entirely about gold! The precious is occupying EVERYone's mind. No frenetic, go-no-where politics for Kitkoites tonite. Could this be a sign?

From the LGN Group:


PRECIOUS METALS

Precious metal prices lost ground as a group today, following an agitated
platinum group metal sector and heavy gold selling.

In the morning, the action ( major borrowing wave ) came from investors trying
to cover palladium positions -- where available stocks are either
non-existent or tightly held. According to our sources, 1-month rates range
between 150% and 180% for Zurich good delivery plate, while platinum lenders
were fetching rates of about 60% for 1 month.

In the morning, Palladium fixed at an all-time high of $210 per ounce ( and
its highest spot price since 1980 ) , and up 85% from the year's low. In the
afternoon, however, it was off $2.00 at $208.00, while platinum made $419.00.

As our readers know, we have been pointing out that there is in fact a
fundamental reason for palladium to be so "short"; however, platinum should
not be that tight; we believe someone is trying to artificially create a
"squeeze". Interestingly enough, we learned that while there was no
shortness in Johnson-Matthey refined sponge grade palladium available in
London, purchase hedging was basically unfeasible on the Nymex or in Zurich.
That should make our dealers and refinery friends smile, because it would
actually mean that they would have to offer a discount to their customers.

Normally I don't like to hand out reading assignments, :- ) ) , but these stories make good reading! Platinum, Palladium, and RHODIUM moving UP. Words to the effect of, "Trouble in the shorts." "Rhodium being used as a substitute." ...........

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/97/06/04/pgms_y0023_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/04/y0023_z00_15.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/04/y0023_2.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/04/y0023_8.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/04/y0023_18.html

This afternoon and evening have produced some of the kind of thought provoking material it should produce. Thank goodness for a return to ideas concerning metals !!!!!

Forgot to mention about South African tribe in litigation with Implatt, Stillwater changing ticker, and Japanese buying Rhodium. Reuters story quoted rhodium at 300b/330a. Maybe rhodium will be the fastest mover here! Do you get the sense that something may be 'happening'?

ALL.....IMHO all this press coverage of PGMS will call attention to the entire metals group and will cause a renewed interest in them. It will not cause an instantly rising market, because as in all commodities this market ( gold and silver ) must be driven down as low as it will go. The more the rubber band stretches, the more it will react in the opposite direction when it finally does react.....We do need that downward spike..And it may be closely at hand...

Hey Sheller: What do you mean ... could this be a sign? You tell us ... you're the astrologer. I guess everyone thinks gold is near a bottom. I hope so.

What does everyone think about PGMS getting listed on AMEX versus NASDAQ? Lower volume? Less promotion? More volatile? Better access for small investor since you're not dealing with market makers?

TED: Howd'ya like me friend Stevie, last night?
Gold's up .60, will it last?.....NAHHHHH!!!

June T-Bonds are at 110+ while cash T-Bonds are at 95+. Is this kind of disparity usual and normal? Does anyone know of a site where this info might be available? June gold gave two buy signals on the chart today, so we should get a couple of day bounce shortly.

ALL.....My last post reminded me of a thought I have had many times in the last few weeks while reading all the complicated reasons of why gold and silver must go up. Some are very deep and very well worded by some obviously intelligent people. Has anyone considered that just the very fact that gold and silver are openly traded commodities lends them toward price changes and variations ?????Look at the commodity markets. Is there not at all times something being forced upwards or downwards ( churned ) so that some people will make money and some will loose ?? Of course there is and at some time it will be the turn for gold and silver. Couple that with all the reasons that have been exposed or birthed by members of this group, the time is near for gold and silver if for no other reason.... The best I remember gold got churned shortly after coffee in the 70s. Is it time for the commodity of our choice to be next ????

Nailz: How do you figure Stillwater alone, could draw that much attention as to bring notice to the metals as a whole???
Or is this just wishfull thinking?

TO all,
I think to day is one of the best posts from every one IN KITCO.BULLS OR BEARS ARE absolutely EXCELLENT.A HARDCORE SHAKE FROM THE MARKET GET EVERYONE EXCITE,SHARPER AND CLEAR.
KITCO ,I BET THE BEST PRECIOUS PAGE IN THE NET,
CHEER.......GOOD LUCK!

TARNISHED....Stillwater has had little attention that I have seen. PA and PL on the other hand have had a lot of attention on television including CNBC. I think calling attention to the actual metals will cause others to look at the metals market as a whole and some will wonder if it is not time for that sector to be revisited. Hence possibly bringing a few back to purchase the actual metals. I meant nothing toward the stocks. PA and PL made the news on the local TV stations here in a town of 125k. I expect it got more attention in the financial centers.

tarnished -- I think Nailz meant the platinum group metals, not stillwater. ( maybe? )

EWP -- I know from personal experience, Nasdaq executions ( ! ) were just that! Spreads as much as 3/4 of a point were common on this stock. AMEX should be much better in this respect.

nailz -- You beat me to it! Anybody interested in rhodium?? Seems the Japanese are. I guess palladium is just to tough to get and rhodium is easier?

Stillwater changing tomorrow from PGMS on the NASDAQ to SWC on the AMEX. Closed today at 22.94.
29-day high 24.75
29-day low 19.50
It is one of the top 10 holdings of Fidelity Select American Gold ( FSAGX )
More later.

TARNISHED.....This is an extrapolation of my belief that the next secular move in gold and silver will have a much broader base that the one that ended on Jan. 21, 1981. More people own the precious metals now than then. Remember that ownership of physical gold in the US had only been allowed for a few years before the last bull market began. Worldwide ownership is up as seen by the increase in manufactured gold going to foreign countries. I think the more people who own gold ( it being spread into many hands compared to few ) will be another bullish factor.

Panda: Sounds better. I hate the NASDAQ for that reason!

TARNISHED.....Sorry !!!!PGMs is platinum group metals .....

WW @ New England - Did you finally get the message I was trying to give you two weeks ago? Your posts at 19:32 and 20:01 were a breath of fresh air - keep up the good work!

EWP -- Digressing from the precious metals for a moment, I have had 'market' orders hang out 'there' on the Nasdaq for over twenty minutes without being filled. I have used limit orders and had the price trade through the limit with no fill. I have even had limit orders hit price wise, the price stays there at the bid, and the order is not filled! Go figure, "The market for the next hundred years", NOT! I could go on, but what's the point? I think the AMEX move is for the better. At least you have a reasonable chance of your order getting filled at the ask or bid price!

Nailz: Ahhhhhhh! OK that makes great sense now!
Thanks!

PANDA.....HEH....HEH....Hope you are not a slower typist than me...That would put you in the two words per week catagory....Did you take your handle from the Chinese gold coin ???? They are pretty....

The suspense is killing me, therefore, it is off to sleep! We shall see in the morning what the market sentiment is. Good night all, rhodium, hmmm. Wonder what the supply and demand picture is for that 'stuff'? A corner anyone? Nahh, better go now...... ;- ) )

nailz -- I was thinking of the cute fuzzy BEAR, But the coin works for me too! Really gone now. ;- ) ) rhodium?

Panda: Quite right! NASDAQ is quite sellective as to which houses they deal with, I too have experienced the very same situation, depending on which broker I went through determined whether or not I got a fill.
DAMN Frustrating!

Earl @17:22 - The Prognosticator informs me that you are going to be one happy fellow come Christmas 1998!

EWP: PGMS more volatile as a result of moving to AMEX?? My goodness if it gets any more volitile than it has in the past, I'm not sure my heart will bear up. That hummer seldom trades in units less than a quarter and halfs are not unusual. That has always been one of the striking features of watching the intraday action in it. .... BTW, what is the new ticker symbol and when does it happen?

George S Cole: Thank you for your prompt & as usual accurate response. It was what I thought. But not being an expect like... In recent reading Andy Smith was quoted as wanting a rise in the Gold Price, so it makes sense he was pushing their CB propaganda line. But it makes you wonder, if gold dropped by 2/3rds, how far could it fall? Where it is?? We wonder on. We shall see in time. ( For your information, I am a Financial
Adviser/Investment Planner in Western Australia )

Mooney:

1. Thats what I thought when I bought a potful of Dec 97 400s some time ago. Won't even mention the June's - so late deceased.

2. If Insider had posted earlier this morning I might have changed my outlook. ... Nah!

3. With all the talk of a sharp spike down, it might be wise to put in a 'good till cancelled' order for Dec 98 400s at say, 300 or less. It costs nothing to put the order in and ..... who knows?

panda: I hear you. There are a few mining companies I like that are on the NASDAQ ... but I probably never will touch them ... it's annoying .. especially with companies with usually low volume. My focus is on the AMEX mining companies. Even though my favorite gold stock pick is on the NASDAQ.

Sorry, the mailman did not deliver today either.