Trying to understand: BT @21:07. .... Without forming a value judgement as to its validity; I do not do not understand the trader's description of what are apparently current market conditions. If there is someone here who can decipher and expand on it, I, for one, would appreciate it very much.

Trying to understand: BT @21:07. .... Without forming a value judgement as to its validity; I do not do not understand the trader's description of what are apparently current market conditions. If there is someone here who can decipher and expand on it, I, for one, would appreciate it very much.

madog - Thanks! Louis 16th getting closer - I can feel it!
Steve Puetz - I disagree. I believe Silver will settle in at the very long term historical relationhip of about 16 /1.
All - With the marked increase of commentary about Silver here I believe that it can be taken as another indicator that Silver is about to have the marked increase that most here are predicting, and very soon at that. I remember about a year ago, those of us that even mentioned Silver or the Gold/Silver relationship were in a very small minority and some of the pundits were even expousing the favourite brainwashing line of the financial community that Silver is no longer a monetary metal and only an industrial one. AAR - to make another of my long stories short - I decided that all the Silver talk lately was a definite sign. Further Mr. Sheller ( one of the local interpreters of signs ) mentioned July looks good for Silver. So I thinks to meself - "July not that far away, something funny happening with other white metals, what should I do?" Kept thinking and then all of a sudden - Whammo - the family and friends throw a SILVER wedding anniversary for Mr. and Mrs. MOONEY ( at this point I should repeat MY previously stated interest in Silver and the fact that others have reported here that the MOON is the celestial object which represents Silver ) . Others here say grab some physical metal. 'Good idea' I say to myself and today ( Sunday afternoon ) I set off to the local mega-mall where I know a certain coin shop has a large supply of pre-'66 Canadian halfs and dollars for good prices. Store has been there as at least 15 years. Haven't been to that mall in couple months. Store gone. Sure hope Silver doesn't open limit up and start a panic before I make my Mooney purchase!

madog - Thanks! Louis 16th getting closer - I can feel it!
Steve Puetz - I disagree. I believe Silver will settle in at the very long term historical relationhip of about 16 /1.
All - With the marked increase of commentary about Silver here I believe that it can be taken as another indicator that Silver is about to have the marked increase that most here are predicting, and very soon at that. I remember about a year ago, those of us that even mentioned Silver or the Gold/Silver relationship were in a very small minority and some of the pundits were even expousing the favourite brainwashing line of the financial community that Silver is no longer a monetary metal and only an industrial one. AAR - to make another of my long stories short - I decided that all the Silver talk lately was a definite sign. Further Mr. Sheller ( one of the local interpreters of signs ) mentioned July looks good for Silver. So I thinks to meself - "July not that far away, something funny happening with other white metals, what should I do?" Kept thinking and then all of a sudden - Whammo - the family and friends throw a SILVER wedding anniversary for Mr. and Mrs. MOONEY ( at this point I should repeat MY previously stated interest in Silver and the fact that others have reported here that the MOON is the celestial object which represents Silver ) . Others here say grab some physical metal. 'Good idea' I say to myself and today ( Sunday afternoon ) I set off to the local mega-mall where I know a certain coin shop has a large supply of pre-'66 Canadian halfs and dollars for good prices. Store has been there as at least 15 years. Haven't been to that mall in couple months. Store gone. Sure hope Silver doesn't open limit up and start a panic before I make my Mooney purchase!

@23:51 - Are you implying in any way that your wife is not as perfect as you?

@23:51 - Are you implying in any way that your wife is not as perfect as you?

Auroelf @21:27: The ultimate formation of a cybercurrency, of course, would depend for its long term stability, on the same thing as paper. That is that the issuer is able to hold greed in check and restrain an uwarranted expansion. The recent past is not a source of comfort. That doesn't mean they will not try it. ..... BTW. Was the issuing agent a govt or some private entity? ( a consortium of each )

Auroelf @21:27: The ultimate formation of a cybercurrency, of course, would depend for its long term stability, on the same thing as paper. That is that the issuer is able to hold greed in check and restrain an uwarranted expansion. The recent past is not a source of comfort. That doesn't mean they will not try it. ..... BTW. Was the issuing agent a govt or some private entity? ( a consortium of each )

BTW - I agree in general with just about everything GFD says in his June 8 @ 22:44.

BTW - I agree in general with just about everything GFD says in his June 8 @ 22:44.

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more; or close the wall up with our dead........ for there is none of you so mean and base, that hath not noble lustre in your eyes...... I see you stand like greyhounds in the slips, straining upon the start. The game's afoot.

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more; or close the wall up with our dead........ for there is none of you so mean and base, that hath not noble lustre in your eyes...... I see you stand like greyhounds in the slips, straining upon the start. The game's afoot.

Mooney @23:41: I think Auroelf was quoting the opinion of the author, rather than expressing an opinion of her own.

Mooney @23:41: I think Auroelf was quoting the opinion of the author, rather than expressing an opinion of her own.

RJ: ...... the fox has taken flight and the hounds bay loudly. ... with apologies for the intrusion into yer swell pome.

RJ: ...... the fox has taken flight and the hounds bay loudly. ... with apologies for the intrusion into yer swell pome.

RJ: I say gold will touch $400 before $325. Agree
or disagree?


w

RJ: I say gold will touch $400 before $325. Agree
or disagree?


w

Further to GFD yest.22:44, I wish to add the following ideas;

From my studies of historic basing patterns, the last 17 weeks, should break out sharply from these levels for the next couple of months.

The ratio of XAU to spot that Kaplan uses in his daily analysis, states that when the differential is below 260 it begins getting bearish and above bullish. Now 244. This indicator should now start adjusting to the upside, which should confirm GFD's theory of bullion leading the stocks to the upside.

In any case we should start feeling some more pleasurable emotions in the near future. How much crying can these souls take?

Further to GFD yest.22:44, I wish to add the following ideas;

From my studies of historic basing patterns, the last 17 weeks, should break out sharply from these levels for the next couple of months.

The ratio of XAU to spot that Kaplan uses in his daily analysis, states that when the differential is below 260 it begins getting bearish and above bullish. Now 244. This indicator should now start adjusting to the upside, which should confirm GFD's theory of bullion leading the stocks to the upside.

In any case we should start feeling some more pleasurable emotions in the near future. How much crying can these souls take?

Front:I prefer to think, Great hockey players come from Canada...
Sorry quebec.....but that was my bid for national unity....and the Rocket
and Lafleurs were Canadians then.
BTW...What a class act Stevie was, his first comment was not for his cup victory but for how amiss things are without Don Cherry present....
Lets see another athelete demonstrait that kind of selflessness!
TTFN

Front:I prefer to think, Great hockey players come from Canada...
Sorry quebec.....but that was my bid for national unity....and the Rocket
and Lafleurs were Canadians then.
BTW...What a class act Stevie was, his first comment was not for his cup victory but for how amiss things are without Don Cherry present....
Lets see another athelete demonstrait that kind of selflessness!
TTFN

MOOOONEY--- LONG COFFEE JAN/96//SHORT HOGS AND BEANS END OF MAY//SHORT CDN DOLLAR 2 WEEKS AGO AND SEVERAL MORE SIGNALS. INDICATOR IS BASED ON MARKET PSYCHOLOGY AND MATHEMATICS. WORKS BETTER THAN SARCASM AND "I THINKS" AND "I BELIEVES"THAT YOU OFFER.

Nay $325 - although it as is likley as not. $335 half a dozen times before $400 once. Prior courtesy: Henry V....

Nay $325 - although it as is likley as not. $335 half a dozen times before $400 once. Prior courtesy: Henry V....

MOOOONEY--- LONG COFFEE JAN/96//SHORT HOGS AND BEANS END OF MAY//SHORT CDN DOLLAR 2 WEEKS AGO AND SEVERAL MORE SIGNALS. INDICATOR IS BASED ON MARKET PSYCHOLOGY AND MATHEMATICS. WORKS BETTER THAN SARCASM AND "I THINKS" AND "I BELIEVES"THAT YOU OFFER.

TYPO- LONG COFFEE JAN/97

Earl - I hope so, for her sake!
Silver Futures Traders - All of our optimism aside, Fridays chart does not look great given the highs and then the weak close. Look at Bart's 24 hour spot chart. One thing I have noticed in the past is that regardless of weekend action, New York almost always has some trading at the opening very close to Friday's close. If this happens this morning at the opening and considering the U.S. dollar weak against Yen overnight, then it may be a good 'window of opportunity' to pick up some Silver if that's one's intentions. Good Tradin' in '97!

Earl - I hope so, for her sake!
Silver Futures Traders - All of our optimism aside, Fridays chart does not look great given the highs and then the weak close. Look at Bart's 24 hour spot chart. One thing I have noticed in the past is that regardless of weekend action, New York almost always has some trading at the opening very close to Friday's close. If this happens this morning at the opening and considering the U.S. dollar weak against Yen overnight, then it may be a good 'window of opportunity' to pick up some Silver if that's one's intentions. Good Tradin' in '97!

TYPO- LONG COFFEE JAN/97

Thank you Speed. I should have said $20 of 1930 gold and $20 worth of 1930 DOW.

RJ @ 00:59- What about $420 Gold between now and
Dec.31, 1997? Am I gonna owe $420 to charity, or is
WW?

RJ @ 00:59- What about $420 Gold between now and
Dec.31, 1997? Am I gonna owe $420 to charity, or is
WW?

Thank you Speed. I should have said $20 of 1930 gold and $20 worth of 1930 DOW.

Tommorrow the NYMEX raises the margin requirements on PL and PA. Does
anyone have an idea what effect this will have on the market?

Tommorrow the NYMEX raises the margin requirements on PL and PA. Does
anyone have an idea what effect this will have on the market?

Madog - My earlier message of -thanks! - to you although brief was not meant to be sarcastic but was a sincere comment. You were sharing the fact that according to your system, ( without going into details ) , the trend is about to change. I sincerely appreciated that post. I try and listen to the comments of all who post here and then add and subtract them all up and see where and how it affects my perceptions of what's happening. My Louis the 16th comment is in reference to the fact that I have said that when I feel the Gold market has finally bottomed I will post a certain quote from Louis 16th that I feel is pertinant to the situation that we have been experiencing for the last year or so. I have said I will post this comment when I feel the Gold market changes direction. In other words I was agreeing with you that we may almost be there. :-0
I have been sarcastic recently with only one participant that I know of and that is a person who many times in the last year has been very rude and often attacked other participants just for the fun of it. He even has made up falsehoods and lies and stated such as facts here to create dissention. This weekend his lies were so gross that if I had the time and inclination, ( and I guess it would help if I lived in the States as that's where he does ) , I would sue the person for slander.
BTW - Most of us Canucks would appreciate it if you would let us know via a timely post when your indicator says that the Canadian dollar is finally about to reverse and head north! :- )

Madog - My earlier message of -thanks! - to you although brief was not meant to be sarcastic but was a sincere comment. You were sharing the fact that according to your system, ( without going into details ) , the trend is about to change. I sincerely appreciated that post. I try and listen to the comments of all who post here and then add and subtract them all up and see where and how it affects my perceptions of what's happening. My Louis the 16th comment is in reference to the fact that I have said that when I feel the Gold market has finally bottomed I will post a certain quote from Louis 16th that I feel is pertinant to the situation that we have been experiencing for the last year or so. I have said I will post this comment when I feel the Gold market changes direction. In other words I was agreeing with you that we may almost be there. :-0
I have been sarcastic recently with only one participant that I know of and that is a person who many times in the last year has been very rude and often attacked other participants just for the fun of it. He even has made up falsehoods and lies and stated such as facts here to create dissention. This weekend his lies were so gross that if I had the time and inclination, ( and I guess it would help if I lived in the States as that's where he does ) , I would sue the person for slander.
BTW - Most of us Canucks would appreciate it if you would let us know via a timely post when your indicator says that the Canadian dollar is finally about to reverse and head north! :- )

kuston - The normal effect - all other things being equal - is that the commodity would experience downward pressure. Of course if sentiment and buying power outweigh this effect the market can still keep motoring in the same direction. Raising the margins is one device that the exchanges can use to influence the markets downwards but of course the primary purpose is to ensure against defaults by participants.

kuston - The normal effect - all other things being equal - is that the commodity would experience downward pressure. Of course if sentiment and buying power outweigh this effect the market can still keep motoring in the same direction. Raising the margins is one device that the exchanges can use to influence the markets downwards but of course the primary purpose is to ensure against defaults by participants.

Speed - thank you for your Sunday, 15:22, re: XOI vs. Fidelity Select Energy Services.

Auric - thank you for your Sunday, 18:01 re: HUI vs. a basket of the individual gold mining stocks with a deep discount broker.

Wish I wasn't trading Keogh funds; otherwise I would just go for the bullion with most of you!

Speed - thank you for your Sunday, 15:22, re: XOI vs. Fidelity Select Energy Services.

Auric - thank you for your Sunday, 18:01 re: HUI vs. a basket of the individual gold mining stocks with a deep discount broker.

Wish I wasn't trading Keogh funds; otherwise I would just go for the bullion with most of you!

BT Your syntax has changed wonderfully; have you been spending a lot of time lately stateside or do you now have your very own USA interpreter? Better slow down and remember your roots.

BT Your syntax has changed wonderfully; have you been spending a lot of time lately stateside or do you now have your very own USA interpreter? Better slow down and remember your roots.

Thought I'd check Bart's 24 hour Silver chart before I hit the sack and sure enough it's dropped like a rock. If it stay's there it should be the exact opening that I was talking about in my 1:01 !

Thought I'd check Bart's 24 hour Silver chart before I hit the sack and sure enough it's dropped like a rock. If it stay's there it should be the exact opening that I was talking about in my 1:01 !

Looking at the Kitco Silver Lease Rates History - looks like something changed in the markets around May 29th. See http://www.kitco.com/silver.leaserates.html
At the same time Forward rates went down.

Looking at the Kitco Silver Lease Rates History - looks like something changed in the markets around May 29th. See http://www.kitco.com/silver.leaserates.html
At the same time Forward rates went down.

Would like to hear Vieserre on BT. Is this the real
deal that posted last night?

Would like to hear Vieserre on BT. Is this the real
deal that posted last night?

Mooney - I'm new to this game but my first thoughts were that it would
shake out the speculators. Their % returns would will be less then they
use to be. Applying that to the PL/PA market : I think alot of money
has been made already, how much is left at these levels? That would lead
me to think everyone left really want the stuff and have the money. I
don't think the long side will change. The short side I don't know about.

Has anyone followed the open interest in PL/PA for the end of the year?
Dec/Feb98? There sure is a large open interest? If I was walking
in the Tiger's funds shoes I would have alot of futures contracts spread
out as far as I could. Then I would start acquiring all the metal I
could. I wouldn't be selling anything until I had collected on the
contracts. If so, then these are really cheap right now. Any comments?

Mooney 01:01: silver still closed above the 18 day MA. So I'm still long.

Earl: Yes I don't understand BT's first post. What metal is he talking
about? Gold? I thought the Asains were buying not selling. I look
forward to an explaination.

Mooney - I'm new to this game but my first thoughts were that it would
shake out the speculators. Their % returns would will be less then they
use to be. Applying that to the PL/PA market : I think alot of money
has been made already, how much is left at these levels? That would lead
me to think everyone left really want the stuff and have the money. I
don't think the long side will change. The short side I don't know about.

Has anyone followed the open interest in PL/PA for the end of the year?
Dec/Feb98? There sure is a large open interest? If I was walking
in the Tiger's funds shoes I would have alot of futures contracts spread
out as far as I could. Then I would start acquiring all the metal I
could. I wouldn't be selling anything until I had collected on the
contracts. If so, then these are really cheap right now. Any comments?

Mooney 01:01: silver still closed above the 18 day MA. So I'm still long.

Earl: Yes I don't understand BT's first post. What metal is he talking
about? Gold? I thought the Asains were buying not selling. I look
forward to an explaination.

Steve Puetz: Thanks for the many fine posts and the
searching direct answers.
Speed: Forgot to ask Fundy how much of the $277 he would
have left after taxes.
Fundy: Wish that my dad had bought a farm on Long Island
in 1950, even after property taxes and special
assessments - never mind the $20 ounce.

Steve Puetz: Thanks for the many fine posts and the
searching direct answers.
Speed: Forgot to ask Fundy how much of the $277 he would
have left after taxes.
Fundy: Wish that my dad had bought a farm on Long Island
in 1950, even after property taxes and special
assessments - never mind the $20 ounce.

No Mas! I quit.

No Mas! I quit.

As featured in the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, CBC, Forbes
Magazine, etc.

http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html

As featured in the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, CBC, Forbes
Magazine, etc.

http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html

The Mailman delivered. It's 2-2, pal.

The Mailman delivered. It's 2-2, pal.

Anybody remember Pete Maravich? That boy could play
basketball.

Anybody remember Pete Maravich? That boy could play
basketball.

Henry V Act 3 Scene 1: To the breach indeed! FWIW
Shakespeare has much to say about Gold.

Henry V Act 3 Scene 1: To the breach indeed! FWIW
Shakespeare has much to say about Gold.

To all
Some info on hedging in RSA mines. Vaal Reef has sold
forward about 55% of production over next 4 years at
roughly 1720 to 2600 Rands/once. At current rand rate,
equates to 385$/oz rising to 580 in out year. Western
Deep Levels hedges only about 20% at about the same
rand prices. This info is from the Mining Journal and was
easy to get.

If there is more interest in this, I can probably
get more info, but it will be harder ( old newspapers
kind of thing )

To all
Some info on hedging in RSA mines. Vaal Reef has sold
forward about 55% of production over next 4 years at
roughly 1720 to 2600 Rands/once. At current rand rate,
equates to 385$/oz rising to 580 in out year. Western
Deep Levels hedges only about 20% at about the same
rand prices. This info is from the Mining Journal and was
easy to get.

If there is more interest in this, I can probably
get more info, but it will be harder ( old newspapers
kind of thing )

Jazz took two in a row from the Chicago Bulls. The
Chicago Bulls are paper tigers. Da Bulls are
getting old. Them paper traders at the Chicago pits
will have to fend off silver tipped arrows. Serves
them right! Thwock!

Jazz took two in a row from the Chicago Bulls. The
Chicago Bulls are paper tigers. Da Bulls are
getting old. Them paper traders at the Chicago pits
will have to fend off silver tipped arrows. Serves
them right! Thwock!

Jazz took two in a row from the Chicago Bulls. The
Chicago Bulls are paper tigers. Da Bulls are
getting old. Them paper traders at the Chicago pits
will have to fend off silver tipped arrows. Serves
them right! Thwock!

Jazz took two in a row from the Chicago Bulls. The
Chicago Bulls are paper tigers. Da Bulls are
getting old. Them paper traders at the Chicago pits
will have to fend off silver tipped arrows. Serves
them right! Thwock!

Barplats
This mine is very low grade and high cost. It has been
closed for some time. I understand a sustained platinum
price of over 525$/oz would be required to consider
opening it. Also heavy capex would be needed.
Northam would be a better speculation. This mine is
also high cost and unprofitable at prior prices. Now
at prices of over 450$/oz, Im sure it is making money.
It is also really cheap - ( 2.5 Rand ) . My info on Norilsk
is that it only produces half a million ounces plat and
1.5 mil palladium per year. Russians selling twice that
for three years so not surprising if stockpiles exhausted.
Seems everything about Russia has been overstated, ie
their army, their missiles, their platinum group metals,
and presumably their diamonds too.
Also understand automakers will go back to tri
catalists from Palladium catalyst ( this will boost Rhodium consumption
and price of same - ) . Good for RSA as they heavy rhodium
producers, while Russia makes disproportionately high
palladium . Automakers are probably in trouble but they
will lie about that and soon claim to have developed a
new converter that does not require platinum. They may
even buy into the desert dirt BS just to try and
alleviate platinum price problem. Dont think this will
work this time around.

Barplats
This mine is very low grade and high cost. It has been
closed for some time. I understand a sustained platinum
price of over 525$/oz would be required to consider
opening it. Also heavy capex would be needed.
Northam would be a better speculation. This mine is
also high cost and unprofitable at prior prices. Now
at prices of over 450$/oz, Im sure it is making money.
It is also really cheap - ( 2.5 Rand ) . My info on Norilsk
is that it only produces half a million ounces plat and
1.5 mil palladium per year. Russians selling twice that
for three years so not surprising if stockpiles exhausted.
Seems everything about Russia has been overstated, ie
their army, their missiles, their platinum group metals,
and presumably their diamonds too.
Also understand automakers will go back to tri
catalists from Palladium catalyst ( this will boost Rhodium consumption
and price of same - ) . Good for RSA as they heavy rhodium
producers, while Russia makes disproportionately high
palladium . Automakers are probably in trouble but they
will lie about that and soon claim to have developed a
new converter that does not require platinum. They may
even buy into the desert dirt BS just to try and
alleviate platinum price problem. Dont think this will
work this time around.

Thanks for the Barplats & hedging information John - your'e a scholar,
and a gentleman!

Thanks for the Barplats & hedging information John - your'e a scholar,
and a gentleman!

Any updates on the lease rate in Palladium and
Platinum? What about Silver and Gold. How are the
precious metals doing?

Any updates on the lease rate in Palladium and
Platinum? What about Silver and Gold. How are the
precious metals doing?

August gold up 80 cents a few minutes ago. Steep drop in dollar/yen not having much impact YET.

From today's N Y TIMES:




June 9, 1997


Pristine Russian Far East Sees Its Fate in Gold


In This Article
An Uncertain Fate, a Difficult Choice
Near Future or Far, Jobs Are Crucial
Facing Extinction, Tribes Hang On

Map
Esso, Kamchatka


By MICHAEL SPECTER


SSO, Russia -- The basic view from this mountain village hasn't changed for 7,000
years, since a giant reservoir of molten lava crested over to form the mighty peak of
Asia's largest and most active volcano. Eagles and falcons dance through the crisp air.
Not far away, the world's biggest population of grizzly bears -- shaking off their winter
slumber -- forage for salmon as big as dogs.

There is nothing else in Russia, and little left on earth, like Kamchatka. A peninsula the size of
California, with just one long, partly paved road, it has more earthquakes and live volcanoes --
including Asia's biggest and most active, Klyuchevskaya Sopka -- than anywhere else. Thanks
to its fertile rivers, lakes and seas, the region accounts for nearly half the fish produced in
Russia.

But while Kamchatka, in Russia's Far East, is one of the last pristine places on the planet, it
has been left that way by accident. More than 5,000 miles from Moscow, the region was
protected by the Soviet Union because it was home to a nuclear submarine base in the port city
of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. For decades it was off limits to all but natives, sailors and
fishermen. The staggering wealth that lies beneath the soil -- gold, silver, platinum and more --
has never been touched.

But the temptations have never been greater, because every year Kamchatka draws closer to
death.

"There is a way to save Kamchatka," said Aleksandr A. Orlov, the chief of the regional
administration's department of Energy, Mineral Resources and Communication. "And
everybody knows what it is: we have to dig for gold. I myself want as much wild nature as
possible. We all do. But first of all, people should have a good life. To live here we need
development. Without it we should just turn this place into a wild park or game reserve and
move away. Because if they stay people are going to starve."

The collapse of Communism, hard as it has been on many Russian provinces, has put special
pressures on Kamchatka. Unique in so many ways -- it is, after all, so far east of Moscow that
it is almost west of Moscow -- Kamchatka nonetheless presents the most striking example of
the impossible struggle remote regions face in adapting themselves to the realities of the new
Russia.

The subsidies, incentives and discounts that Soviet leaders doled out for living in Siberia and
the distant north are gone now and nothing that people did here in the old economy makes
sense anymore. Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, where 300,000 of the region's 400,000 people
live and where almost no produce grows and everything must be imported, is among the
nation's most expensive urban areas. Bread here costs three times as much as in Moscow.
Unemployment is nearly 30 percent. In winter an apple costs a dollar.

The fishing industry in the world's largest salmon spawning ground, which accounts for more
than 80 percent of Kamchatka's workers, is buckling under the costs of transporting its catch
back to the population centers in the west. There is no longer any money in hunting because it
costs too much to ship meat. Reindeer breeding, a way of life in the north for at least a
thousand years, is also on the verge of disappearing. The regional government has become so
impoverished it can no longer pay hunters a bounty to kill wolves, which have multiplied
rapidly and decimated the herds. The reindeer herders are often so desperate that they are
forced to kill their animals just to feed their families.

But the pressure to find a way to make Kamchatka prosper competes with the knowledge that
once digging here begins, one more natural paradise will almost certainly be lost.

"I am sure there are places on this planet as wild, beautiful and diverse as this," said Yelena
Dulchenko, a geologist with the Kamchatka Institute of Ecology. "But I just don't know where
they could be. If they dig for gold here they will ruin Kamchatka forever. It will become just
another place that used to be special."

Gold fever sometimes makes debates seems simple, and it would be easy to portray the battle
for Kamchatka as a struggle between those who wish to preserve the earth and those who are
eager to plunder it. But the people here have an obvious reverence for their surroundings and a
strong desire to protect them. They also have bleak prospects for the future.

An Uncertain Fate, a Difficult Choice

oscow can no longer afford to support places like Kamchatka; that much is clear. If it
survives, it will have to find a way to do it alone.

"We are forgotten by the federal government," said Gennadi Devyatkin, head of the local
administration in the gold-producing region in central Kamchatka that includes Esso.
"Forgotten except when they want our fish. We are a colony and Moscow can only take from
us. At least in the old days they would give us back enough to survive. Not anymore though."

That is why it is no longer possible to ignore the most obvious source of wealth in Kamchatka.
There are from 500 to 1,000 tons of gold here, a figure that, while not enormous by world
standards, could bring in as much as $10 billion.

"It's not going to change the world gold market," said Samuel Romberger, professor of
Economic Geology at the Colorado School of Mines. "But it might excite a bunch of Western
adventurists."

That's for sure. Canadian, American and Russian companies have all been eager to get digging
and the fight has already become messy. Many of those who want the region to grow, or at
least to continue supporting humans, say tourism is the only way to do it.

Since the peninsula has 30 active volcanoes and more than 100 that are dormant, one of the
world's great geyser fields ( along with Yellowstone ) , tens of thousands of rivers and lakes,
and every type of animal from sea otter and sable to the world's biggest eagles, tourism seems
to make a lot of sense.

But with no roads, the only way to move about the peninsula is by helicopter. And most
helicopters are controlled by one company. Visiting the Valley of the Geysers -- where more
than 200 geysers spout, bubble and boil into the sky -- can cost $2,000 for a few hours. A
round-trip plane ticket from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky to Palana, the northern administrative
center, is $400. Many families don't earn that in a year.

"You would need to spend millions of dollars to turn this into a tourist attraction that would
bring more than just the most adventurous travelers," said Gennadi Karpov, deputy director of
the Institute of Vulcanology, the premier scholarly institution in Kamchatka. "The two volcano
ranges are wonders of the world. But if you don't have several thousand dollars you can only
see them from far away. You are not going to get thousands of tourists if all we have to offer
them are helicopter rides."

There are few hotels outside the capital Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, in part because the island
is in the center of a major earthquake zone and the cost of building hotels that can withstand
earthquakes is huge.

Fishing is the only industry here to prosper. But many people feel its singular success may
doom it. More than a million tons were hauled from the seas near Kamchatka in 1996 -- a
record catch and one that specialists here feel is too large even for such rich waters. This year
the Russian government permitted quotas that are even higher, though, because with little else
in the way of income fishing is all most people have. That is why so many residents have
reluctantly turned their hope to mining.

Near Future or Far, Jobs Are Crucial

he effects of mining are difficult to predict. New techniques reduce pollution
immensely -- but perhaps not enough to protect Kamchatka. Colorado still has many
streams that are considered toxic-waste sites more than 100 years after gold mining
ended in them. It is not possible to extract gold from the earth without flushing large amounts
of heavy metals -- which are always found near gold deposits -- into the surrounding water.
Fish eat them, bears eat the fish -- and both would suffer badly, as would people.

"The ground is wet here and where it is not wet it is cold," said Igor Revenko, a leading bear
biologist with the Kamchatka Institute of Ecology. Revenko has been taking a bear census here
for several years, attempting with many other experts from around the world to understand
why this appears to be the best place on earth for them to live.

"The conditions here are fragile and unique," he said. "This is not Colorado where the ground
was dry. We are not nearly as big as Alaska. Also, we have to look at what we are going to get
if we ruin Kamchatka for a few tons of gold."

Revenko said that the mines here would be exhausted within 30 years -- a figure that regional
mining supporters do not contest. Then, if the natural splendors of the peninsula are affected --
and slight environmental challenges often have major adverse consequences -- the possibility of
using the place as an tourist spot may no longer exist.

"Personally, over the long run," Revenko said, "I think there would be more money in
tourism."

This year, in an attempt to protect those areas of Kamchatka that are truly wild and most in
danger, UNESCO put nearly 10 million acres on its list of protected World Heritage Sites. The
legal implications of that decision are not clear, but it has not made everyone here happy.

"Everyone has a plan to save Kamchatka," said Aleksandr Rechednikov, a 50-year-old hunter
in this town of 300 families. "But they are not saving it for me. I can't make a living hunting
anymore. I can't fish. There are no jobs to offer, none. So why don't the good rich people
from everywhere else in the world leave us alone and let us decide what to do in our own
land?"

Facing Extinction, Tribes Hang On

iktoriya Petrasheva also wishes people would leave the place alone. But her
perspective couldn't differ more sharply from that of Rechednikov. Ms. Petrasheva
lives in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky but she is one of the peninsula's dwindling
number of indigenous people -- a member of the Itelmen tribe, which began its first wave of
eastward migration more than 10,000 years ago. There were 25,000 Itelmen in Kamchatka
when the Russians came in 1697. Today there are 1,000 to 2,000.

"My grandfather was executed in 1934," she said. "He was accused of being a spy for Japan.
My mother was 6. Her mother was labeled an "enemy of the people," -- Stalin's infamous term
for millions who then endured suffering, and usually death. "But ever since the Russians came
here we have been enemies of the people. So it was nothing new."

Mrs. Petrasheva is an ethnographer who has studied the fate of natives in Kamchatka -- most
of whom still live in the north, coastal or central parts of the peninsula. Her results are not
encouraging. For centuries the Even, Koryak and Itelmen lived easily in harsh conditions.
They herded reindeer, which provided meat and skins, caught and preserved an endless supply
of salmon and hunted the bears, foxes and sable, whose furs helped them to survive the cold.

Taking a notebook from the shelf, she provided an account of deaths in the native Even village
of Anavgai, just 25 miles from Esso. In 1994, 8 people died there -- out of 300 -- and nobody
was born. She reels off the ages of the dead: 25, 27, 38, 41. In all, 26 villagers have died there
in the last three years -- with two births. There have been one murder and seven suicides. The
reindeer population -- which sustained the village -- has slid from 19,000 to less than 2,500 in
the last decade.

"You can't even hope that we will survive as a nation," said Katya Atelkut, a veterinarian,
sitting in the cultural center of Anavgai. Although it is May, all around her snow covers the
hills and mountains.

"Maybe we won't even survive at all," she said. "People leave if they can. They drink if they
can't leave. And now there is going to be gold. I don't know why, but somehow it is hard for
me to believe we will see very much of it. I don't want to see them dig up the earth. Its all we
have here now, and when that is gone there will be nothing left."


Other Places of Interest on the Web
Journey to Kamchatka, from The Discovery Channel Online



Home | Sections | Contents | Search | Forums | Help

Copyright 1997 The New York Times Company

August gold up 80 cents a few minutes ago. Steep drop in dollar/yen not having much impact YET.

From today's N Y TIMES:




June 9, 1997


Pristine Russian Far East Sees Its Fate in Gold


In This Article
An Uncertain Fate, a Difficult Choice
Near Future or Far, Jobs Are Crucial
Facing Extinction, Tribes Hang On

Map
Esso, Kamchatka


By MICHAEL SPECTER


SSO, Russia -- The basic view from this mountain village hasn't changed for 7,000
years, since a giant reservoir of molten lava crested over to form the mighty peak of
Asia's largest and most active volcano. Eagles and falcons dance through the crisp air.
Not far away, the world's biggest population of grizzly bears -- shaking off their winter
slumber -- forage for salmon as big as dogs.

There is nothing else in Russia, and little left on earth, like Kamchatka. A peninsula the size of
California, with just one long, partly paved road, it has more earthquakes and live volcanoes --
including Asia's biggest and most active, Klyuchevskaya Sopka -- than anywhere else. Thanks
to its fertile rivers, lakes and seas, the region accounts for nearly half the fish produced in
Russia.

But while Kamchatka, in Russia's Far East, is one of the last pristine places on the planet, it
has been left that way by accident. More than 5,000 miles from Moscow, the region was
protected by the Soviet Union because it was home to a nuclear submarine base in the port city
of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. For decades it was off limits to all but natives, sailors and
fishermen. The staggering wealth that lies beneath the soil -- gold, silver, platinum and more --
has never been touched.

But the temptations have never been greater, because every year Kamchatka draws closer to
death.

"There is a way to save Kamchatka," said Aleksandr A. Orlov, the chief of the regional
administration's department of Energy, Mineral Resources and Communication. "And
everybody knows what it is: we have to dig for gold. I myself want as much wild nature as
possible. We all do. But first of all, people should have a good life. To live here we need
development. Without it we should just turn this place into a wild park or game reserve and
move away. Because if they stay people are going to starve."

The collapse of Communism, hard as it has been on many Russian provinces, has put special
pressures on Kamchatka. Unique in so many ways -- it is, after all, so far east of Moscow that
it is almost west of Moscow -- Kamchatka nonetheless presents the most striking example of
the impossible struggle remote regions face in adapting themselves to the realities of the new
Russia.

The subsidies, incentives and discounts that Soviet leaders doled out for living in Siberia and
the distant north are gone now and nothing that people did here in the old economy makes
sense anymore. Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, where 300,000 of the region's 400,000 people
live and where almost no produce grows and everything must be imported, is among the
nation's most expensive urban areas. Bread here costs three times as much as in Moscow.
Unemployment is nearly 30 percent. In winter an apple costs a dollar.

The fishing industry in the world's largest salmon spawning ground, which accounts for more
than 80 percent of Kamchatka's workers, is buckling under the costs of transporting its catch
back to the population centers in the west. There is no longer any money in hunting because it
costs too much to ship meat. Reindeer breeding, a way of life in the north for at least a
thousand years, is also on the verge of disappearing. The regional government has become so
impoverished it can no longer pay hunters a bounty to kill wolves, which have multiplied
rapidly and decimated the herds. The reindeer herders are often so desperate that they are
forced to kill their animals just to feed their families.

But the pressure to find a way to make Kamchatka prosper competes with the knowledge that
once digging here begins, one more natural paradise will almost certainly be lost.

"I am sure there are places on this planet as wild, beautiful and diverse as this," said Yelena
Dulchenko, a geologist with the Kamchatka Institute of Ecology. "But I just don't know where
they could be. If they dig for gold here they will ruin Kamchatka forever. It will become just
another place that used to be special."

Gold fever sometimes makes debates seems simple, and it would be easy to portray the battle
for Kamchatka as a struggle between those who wish to preserve the earth and those who are
eager to plunder it. But the people here have an obvious reverence for their surroundings and a
strong desire to protect them. They also have bleak prospects for the future.

An Uncertain Fate, a Difficult Choice

oscow can no longer afford to support places like Kamchatka; that much is clear. If it
survives, it will have to find a way to do it alone.

"We are forgotten by the federal government," said Gennadi Devyatkin, head of the local
administration in the gold-producing region in central Kamchatka that includes Esso.
"Forgotten except when they want our fish. We are a colony and Moscow can only take from
us. At least in the old days they would give us back enough to survive. Not anymore though."

That is why it is no longer possible to ignore the most obvious source of wealth in Kamchatka.
There are from 500 to 1,000 tons of gold here, a figure that, while not enormous by world
standards, could bring in as much as $10 billion.

"It's not going to change the world gold market," said Samuel Romberger, professor of
Economic Geology at the Colorado School of Mines. "But it might excite a bunch of Western
adventurists."

That's for sure. Canadian, American and Russian companies have all been eager to get digging
and the fight has already become messy. Many of those who want the region to grow, or at
least to continue supporting humans, say tourism is the only way to do it.

Since the peninsula has 30 active volcanoes and more than 100 that are dormant, one of the
world's great geyser fields ( along with Yellowstone ) , tens of thousands of rivers and lakes,
and every type of animal from sea otter and sable to the world's biggest eagles, tourism seems
to make a lot of sense.

But with no roads, the only way to move about the peninsula is by helicopter. And most
helicopters are controlled by one company. Visiting the Valley of the Geysers -- where more
than 200 geysers spout, bubble and boil into the sky -- can cost $2,000 for a few hours. A
round-trip plane ticket from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky to Palana, the northern administrative
center, is $400. Many families don't earn that in a year.

"You would need to spend millions of dollars to turn this into a tourist attraction that would
bring more than just the most adventurous travelers," said Gennadi Karpov, deputy director of
the Institute of Vulcanology, the premier scholarly institution in Kamchatka. "The two volcano
ranges are wonders of the world. But if you don't have several thousand dollars you can only
see them from far away. You are not going to get thousands of tourists if all we have to offer
them are helicopter rides."

There are few hotels outside the capital Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, in part because the island
is in the center of a major earthquake zone and the cost of building hotels that can withstand
earthquakes is huge.

Fishing is the only industry here to prosper. But many people feel its singular success may
doom it. More than a million tons were hauled from the seas near Kamchatka in 1996 -- a
record catch and one that specialists here feel is too large even for such rich waters. This year
the Russian government permitted quotas that are even higher, though, because with little else
in the way of income fishing is all most people have. That is why so many residents have
reluctantly turned their hope to mining.

Near Future or Far, Jobs Are Crucial

he effects of mining are difficult to predict. New techniques reduce pollution
immensely -- but perhaps not enough to protect Kamchatka. Colorado still has many
streams that are considered toxic-waste sites more than 100 years after gold mining
ended in them. It is not possible to extract gold from the earth without flushing large amounts
of heavy metals -- which are always found near gold deposits -- into the surrounding water.
Fish eat them, bears eat the fish -- and both would suffer badly, as would people.

"The ground is wet here and where it is not wet it is cold," said Igor Revenko, a leading bear
biologist with the Kamchatka Institute of Ecology. Revenko has been taking a bear census here
for several years, attempting with many other experts from around the world to understand
why this appears to be the best place on earth for them to live.

"The conditions here are fragile and unique," he said. "This is not Colorado where the ground
was dry. We are not nearly as big as Alaska. Also, we have to look at what we are going to get
if we ruin Kamchatka for a few tons of gold."

Revenko said that the mines here would be exhausted within 30 years -- a figure that regional
mining supporters do not contest. Then, if the natural splendors of the peninsula are affected --
and slight environmental challenges often have major adverse consequences -- the possibility of
using the place as an tourist spot may no longer exist.

"Personally, over the long run," Revenko said, "I think there would be more money in
tourism."

This year, in an attempt to protect those areas of Kamchatka that are truly wild and most in
danger, UNESCO put nearly 10 million acres on its list of protected World Heritage Sites. The
legal implications of that decision are not clear, but it has not made everyone here happy.

"Everyone has a plan to save Kamchatka," said Aleksandr Rechednikov, a 50-year-old hunter
in this town of 300 families. "But they are not saving it for me. I can't make a living hunting
anymore. I can't fish. There are no jobs to offer, none. So why don't the good rich people
from everywhere else in the world leave us alone and let us decide what to do in our own
land?"

Facing Extinction, Tribes Hang On

iktoriya Petrasheva also wishes people would leave the place alone. But her
perspective couldn't differ more sharply from that of Rechednikov. Ms. Petrasheva
lives in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky but she is one of the peninsula's dwindling
number of indigenous people -- a member of the Itelmen tribe, which began its first wave of
eastward migration more than 10,000 years ago. There were 25,000 Itelmen in Kamchatka
when the Russians came in 1697. Today there are 1,000 to 2,000.

"My grandfather was executed in 1934," she said. "He was accused of being a spy for Japan.
My mother was 6. Her mother was labeled an "enemy of the people," -- Stalin's infamous term
for millions who then endured suffering, and usually death. "But ever since the Russians came
here we have been enemies of the people. So it was nothing new."

Mrs. Petrasheva is an ethnographer who has studied the fate of natives in Kamchatka -- most
of whom still live in the north, coastal or central parts of the peninsula. Her results are not
encouraging. For centuries the Even, Koryak and Itelmen lived easily in harsh conditions.
They herded reindeer, which provided meat and skins, caught and preserved an endless supply
of salmon and hunted the bears, foxes and sable, whose furs helped them to survive the cold.

Taking a notebook from the shelf, she provided an account of deaths in the native Even village
of Anavgai, just 25 miles from Esso. In 1994, 8 people died there -- out of 300 -- and nobody
was born. She reels off the ages of the dead: 25, 27, 38, 41. In all, 26 villagers have died there
in the last three years -- with two births. There have been one murder and seven suicides. The
reindeer population -- which sustained the village -- has slid from 19,000 to less than 2,500 in
the last decade.

"You can't even hope that we will survive as a nation," said Katya Atelkut, a veterinarian,
sitting in the cultural center of Anavgai. Although it is May, all around her snow covers the
hills and mountains.

"Maybe we won't even survive at all," she said. "People leave if they can. They drink if they
can't leave. And now there is going to be gold. I don't know why, but somehow it is hard for
me to believe we will see very much of it. I don't want to see them dig up the earth. Its all we
have here now, and when that is gone there will be nothing left."


Other Places of Interest on the Web
Journey to Kamchatka, from The Discovery Channel Online



Home | Sections | Contents | Search | Forums | Help

Copyright 1997 The New York Times Company

The morning review of the past few hours finds an air of expectant tension vibrating through the site. Just a couple of weeks ago there was gloom among the glitterati, with chat about politics and remote viewing keeping the faithful awake. Now there's a glint of metal in everyone's eye. AUROELF: Show me the Soy Meal! Cybercash will ONLY be successful when it becomes an electronic note against an equivalent of gold. Real money is always a real thing - a commodity. It's a Physical World phenomenon. In the end, the fundamental things apply, as time goes by. QT: Good to see you're back in the hot Florida Sun. La Donna e Mobile pretty soon. Loved your opera. I was right under the balcony looking up. Looks like my $240 on the Palladium came faster than we both thought.

The morning review of the past few hours finds an air of expectant tension vibrating through the site. Just a couple of weeks ago there was gloom among the glitterati, with chat about politics and remote viewing keeping the faithful awake. Now there's a glint of metal in everyone's eye. AUROELF: Show me the Soy Meal! Cybercash will ONLY be successful when it becomes an electronic note against an equivalent of gold. Real money is always a real thing - a commodity. It's a Physical World phenomenon. In the end, the fundamental things apply, as time goes by. QT: Good to see you're back in the hot Florida Sun. La Donna e Mobile pretty soon. Loved your opera. I was right under the balcony looking up. Looks like my $240 on the Palladium came faster than we both thought.

EBN GOld up .25 and Silver up 1 cent; Dollar/ Yen @ 112.69 down 1.93 ( 1.68% ) on fears of Japan's growing trade surplus...

EBN GOld up .25 and Silver up 1 cent; Dollar/ Yen @ 112.69 down 1.93 ( 1.68% ) on fears of Japan's growing trade surplus...

What a beautiful day and many porpoise are now swimming and surfacing right in front of the house...

What a beautiful day and many porpoise are now swimming and surfacing right in front of the house...

Y'All: Has anyone else noticed how few GOLD options were quoted last Friday? Bart's option quote page gives me a "Katie bar the door" feeling about the upcoming action this week. It seems like all those who had the ultimate cash cow by selling gold calls may now be stiilig on a heard of cash cow carcasses, on the phone to their broker getting hide quotes.

BTW, I sure miss the old qoute bar being at the top of this page.

Y'All: Has anyone else noticed how few GOLD options were quoted last Friday? Bart's option quote page gives me a "Katie bar the door" feeling about the upcoming action this week. It seems like all those who had the ultimate cash cow by selling gold calls may now be stiilig on a heard of cash cow carcasses, on the phone to their broker getting hide quotes.

BTW, I sure miss the old qoute bar being at the top of this page.

Y'All: Has anyone else noticed how few GOLD options were quoted last Friday? Bart's option quote page gives me a "Katie bar the door" feeling about the upcoming action this week. It seems like all those who had the ultimate cash cow by selling gold calls may now be sitting on a heard of cash cow carcasses, on the phone to their broker getting hide quotes.

BTW, I sure miss the old qoute bar being at the top of this page.

Y'All: Has anyone else noticed how few GOLD options were quoted last Friday? Bart's option quote page gives me a "Katie bar the door" feeling about the upcoming action this week. It seems like all those who had the ultimate cash cow by selling gold calls may now be sitting on a heard of cash cow carcasses, on the phone to their broker getting hide quotes.

BTW, I sure miss the old qoute bar being at the top of this page.

Just getting up from a night a celebrating the Jazz will with a good night's sleep. Morning Ted, I'd give a buck or two to see those porpoises doing their thing. I'll probably just have to watch the wind blow the yukka plants, but then I can do it without a shirt. Here's the joke of the morning.

A little girl says, "Grandpa, can I sit on your lap?

"Why sure you can," her grandfather replied.

As she is sitting on grand dad's lap she says, "Grandpa, can you
make a sound like a frog?"

"A sound like a frog? Well, sure Grandpa can make a sound like a
frog."

The girl says, "Grandpa, will you please please MAKE a sound like
a frog?"

Perplexed, her grand dad says, "Sweet heart, why do you want me to
make a sound like a frog?"

And the little girl says, "'Cause Grandma said that when you croak,
we're going to Florida!"

Just getting up from a night a celebrating the Jazz will with a good night's sleep. Morning Ted, I'd give a buck or two to see those porpoises doing their thing. I'll probably just have to watch the wind blow the yukka plants, but then I can do it without a shirt. Here's the joke of the morning.

A little girl says, "Grandpa, can I sit on your lap?

"Why sure you can," her grandfather replied.

As she is sitting on grand dad's lap she says, "Grandpa, can you
make a sound like a frog?"

"A sound like a frog? Well, sure Grandpa can make a sound like a
frog."

The girl says, "Grandpa, will you please please MAKE a sound like
a frog?"

Perplexed, her grand dad says, "Sweet heart, why do you want me to
make a sound like a frog?"

And the little girl says, "'Cause Grandma said that when you croak,
we're going to Florida!"

Last EBN-Dollar at 112.48 Yen.

Last EBN-Dollar at 112.48 Yen.

To All -- Todays Wall Street Journal page C15, top right coner, an ad about central bank sales of gold and their losses! Ad is from Richard M. Pomboy, Pomboy Capital Corp. Things are definitly heating up!

To All -- Todays Wall Street Journal page C15, top right coner, an ad about central bank sales of gold and their losses! Ad is from Richard M. Pomboy, Pomboy Capital Corp. Things are definitly heating up!

Tort: Hahahahaha...The porpoise are still out there doin there thing....
The Dollar continues to slide against the YEN....

Tort: Hahahahaha...The porpoise are still out there doin there thing....
The Dollar continues to slide against the YEN....

Front ( 23:51 ) How true! Guess I just got lucky.......Big Trader: HAHAHAHA
...what a bunch of crap!

Front ( 23:51 ) How true! Guess I just got lucky.......Big Trader: HAHAHAHA
...what a bunch of crap!

It's that time of year...finally...am off to rent a roto-tiller!

It's that time of year...finally...am off to rent a roto-tiller!

Panda: which WSJ you talking about bro? My page c15 is a Merrill Lynch ad.

Panda: which WSJ you talking about bro? My page c15 is a Merrill Lynch ad.

Is anyone having as much trouble as I am getting in to this site?

speed -- I'm in the Northeast. I believe it's the Eastern edition of the WSJ. The Pomboy Capital Corp. is located in Greenwich CT. Those are the people who put the ad in the Money and Investing section of the paper. Page C15. I know the WSJ puts out regional editions, perhaps the ads are regional to!

Is anyone having as much trouble as I am getting in to this site?

speed -- I'm in the Northeast. I believe it's the Eastern edition of the WSJ. The Pomboy Capital Corp. is located in Greenwich CT. Those are the people who put the ad in the Money and Investing section of the paper. Page C15. I know the WSJ puts out regional editions, perhaps the ads are regional to!

TED You can borrow mine, but I'm not gonna drive it there! Get a Troy-bilt, great machine.

TED You can borrow mine, but I'm not gonna drive it there! Get a Troy-bilt, great machine.

Gold will kick the H E double L out of the EMU from
now on. Agreed?

Gold will kick the H E double L out of the EMU from
now on. Agreed?

Mooney:

"Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:22
Mooney ( @Front ) :

@23:51 - Are you implying in any way that your wife is not as perfect as you?"

Yea Right !!!! Like , Do I really look that stupid?

I wouldn't dare say it even if it's true you know since they changed the devorce laws in Ontario and now she gets 1/2 automatically. Can't work the market with only ha f t e eyb ard y u n w hahahaha ( :- ) )

Tarnished: You're right about Canadians. Wonder if our American friends remember that until about 5 years ago, EVERY player in the NHL was CANADIAN !!! ( even though MOST were from Ontario haha ) !!!

Ted: When you're done, I've got a bit left here to do also. I'll be out on the Seadoo today so just go ahead without me OK? Thanks....

TTFN

Mooney:

"Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:22
Mooney ( @Front ) :

@23:51 - Are you implying in any way that your wife is not as perfect as you?"

Yea Right !!!! Like , Do I really look that stupid?

I wouldn't dare say it even if it's true you know since they changed the devorce laws in Ontario and now she gets 1/2 automatically. Can't work the market with only ha f t e eyb ard y u n w hahahaha ( :- ) )

Tarnished: You're right about Canadians. Wonder if our American friends remember that until about 5 years ago, EVERY player in the NHL was CANADIAN !!! ( even though MOST were from Ontario haha ) !!!

Ted: When you're done, I've got a bit left here to do also. I'll be out on the Seadoo today so just go ahead without me OK? Thanks....

TTFN

Market maven George S. Cole believes secular market reversals are near: Financials DOWN & Hard Assets UP, perhaps reminiscent of 1930s & 1970s. Cole Market Insights - Click RELOAD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html

Market maven George S. Cole believes secular market reversals are near: Financials DOWN & Hard Assets UP, perhaps reminiscent of 1930s & 1970s. Cole Market Insights - Click RELOAD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html

Is it me? Are others having trouble getting in this morning? Must be me...

Is it me? Are others having trouble getting in this morning? Must be me...

As of June 3, 1997, released at 4 p.m. on June 6, 1997, the commitments show commercial insiders long 96,893, short 68,789; speculators long 8,479, short 39,277.

As of June 3, 1997, released at 4 p.m. on June 6, 1997, the commitments show commercial insiders long 96,893, short 68,789; speculators long 8,479, short 39,277.

One of US best-known Analysts in last 20 years, James Dines, shares bullish report on Platinum & Palladium - & their impact on Gold. He likes Stillwater Mining. See Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html

One of US best-known Analysts in last 20 years, James Dines, shares bullish report on Platinum & Palladium - & their impact on Gold. He likes Stillwater Mining. See Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html

Geff - I don't quite get your drift. What do you mean by "Has anyone else noticed how few GOLD options were quoted last Friday?" Do you mean not as many options were traded as per a normal trading day? or that the # of outstanding contracts shrunk? The number of outstanding futures contracts of Gold on Comex was about 157,000 on Friday and the # of Silver futures contracts was about 90,000. These levels seem O.K. to me as a staring point for a rally. Anyone?

Geff - I don't quite get your drift. What do you mean by "Has anyone else noticed how few GOLD options were quoted last Friday?" Do you mean not as many options were traded as per a normal trading day? or that the # of outstanding contracts shrunk? The number of outstanding futures contracts of Gold on Comex was about 157,000 on Friday and the # of Silver futures contracts was about 90,000. These levels seem O.K. to me as a staring point for a rally. Anyone?

August gold now up 90 cents. Will bullion be able to penetrate the downtrend lines that have contained all rallies since May 1996? My guesstimate -- not now, but quite soon.

AURIC: I do not follow the price of gold in foreign currencies nearly as closely as does THE PRIVATEER. I greatly respect their work; like GLENN they have been cautious for quite some time and still have not called a bottom in terms of greenbacks. But they do argue that it has troughed in Aussie dollars. THE PRIVATEER argues that this is very significant because bullion tends to bottom in Aussie currency before troughing in U.S. dollars.

August gold now up 90 cents. Will bullion be able to penetrate the downtrend lines that have contained all rallies since May 1996? My guesstimate -- not now, but quite soon.

AURIC: I do not follow the price of gold in foreign currencies nearly as closely as does THE PRIVATEER. I greatly respect their work; like GLENN they have been cautious for quite some time and still have not called a bottom in terms of greenbacks. But they do argue that it has troughed in Aussie dollars. THE PRIVATEER argues that this is very significant because bullion tends to bottom in Aussie currency before troughing in U.S. dollars.

Jack: Buy all the gold you can. You will feel very well off I imagine.
As Mr. Pretz said Its going to $20 000. Say hello to Kirk and Scotty when you get there. Buy Mr. Peutz's book for the trip. Rear-tined Troy builts are the best.

Jack: Buy all the gold you can. You will feel very well off I imagine.
As Mr. Pretz said Its going to $20 000. Say hello to Kirk and Scotty when you get there. Buy Mr. Peutz's book for the trip. Rear-tined Troy builts are the best.

What contracts are your COT #'s referring too? Thanks.

George s Cole: Re-June 8 update @ Gold-Eagle. Are
you making the case that the same conditions are
present in Gold and Silver as in Platinum and
Palladium?

George s Cole: Re-June 8 update @ Gold-Eagle. Are
you making the case that the same conditions are
present in Gold and Silver as in Platinum and
Palladium?

What contracts are your COT #'s referring too? Thanks.

MOONEY: My knowledge of the technical aspects of the commodities markets is not as comprehensive as that of many on this thread, but I do recall that several sources have asserted that sustainable gold rallies tend to start when the open interest has fallen to depressed levels. That seems to be the case today.

Low open interest, exceedingly negative sentiment, a 17-month bear market, a stock market now in its final blowoff phase, and the fact that gold and gold shares are incredibly cheap relative to financial assets all augur for a big move up before long.

MOONEY: My knowledge of the technical aspects of the commodities markets is not as comprehensive as that of many on this thread, but I do recall that several sources have asserted that sustainable gold rallies tend to start when the open interest has fallen to depressed levels. That seems to be the case today.

Low open interest, exceedingly negative sentiment, a 17-month bear market, a stock market now in its final blowoff phase, and the fact that gold and gold shares are incredibly cheap relative to financial assets all augur for a big move up before long.

Silver had a wild ride on the overnight market and first dropped abot 9 cents then shot up about 11 cents and then dropped back down 10 cents so that on N.Y.'s opening it was approximately in line with Friday's close. Very interesting action but Gold and Silver are still in the flat-line mode this morning. Is the Friday and overnight action a precursor to more volatility about to happen? Where's the Shadow?

Silver had a wild ride on the overnight market and first dropped abot 9 cents then shot up about 11 cents and then dropped back down 10 cents so that on N.Y.'s opening it was approximately in line with Friday's close. Very interesting action but Gold and Silver are still in the flat-line mode this morning. Is the Friday and overnight action a precursor to more volatility about to happen? Where's the Shadow?

George, that was exactly my thought that "... sustainable gold rallies tend to start when the open interest has fallen to depressed levels. That seems to be the case today." I will get a comment from Friedberg's and get back to the group.

George, that was exactly my thought that "... sustainable gold rallies tend to start when the open interest has fallen to depressed levels. That seems to be the case today." I will get a comment from Friedberg's and get back to the group.

World shattering metals report gives reason for Platinum & Palladium strength. It proves why same explosive price rise in Gold & Silver will occur - Please RELOAD Digest page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html

World shattering metals report gives reason for Platinum & Palladium strength. It proves why same explosive price rise in Gold & Silver will occur - Please RELOAD Digest page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html

Mooney-- My comment about the gold options was that hardly any seem to be moving--for some reason. In recent times one could look at the kitco gold option quote board and see at least one trade at just about every $5 increment. I have noticed that not only are very few strikes quoted lately, but also longer time lapses between activity. So, I guess my drift was that very few of the option sellers want to come out and play these days...Could this mean something is afoot?

Mooney-- My comment about the gold options was that hardly any seem to be moving--for some reason. In recent times one could look at the kitco gold option quote board and see at least one trade at just about every $5 increment. I have noticed that not only are very few strikes quoted lately, but also longer time lapses between activity. So, I guess my drift was that very few of the option sellers want to come out and play these days...Could this mean something is afoot?

Panda: Thanks, that's probably it. I too have had problems getting in today. Slow DNS connection. Later.

Panda: Thanks, that's probably it. I too have had problems getting in today. Slow DNS connection. Later.

Geff and George - Just checked with my broker at Friedberg's ( commodities ) in Toronto and according to him Alfred Friedberg has not as of yet gotten any kind of bullish signal from the price and volume action in Gold futures and, in fact, is still short, wanting, at this point, to see a move to at least $355 in August Gold before reversing his short positions. This seems a little high to me considering the descending triangle but perhaps he gives a lot of leeway in his stops so as not to get whipsawed by any fake-outs.

Geff and George - Just checked with my broker at Friedberg's ( commodities ) in Toronto and according to him Alfred Friedberg has not as of yet gotten any kind of bullish signal from the price and volume action in Gold futures and, in fact, is still short, wanting, at this point, to see a move to at least $355 in August Gold before reversing his short positions. This seems a little high to me considering the descending triangle but perhaps he gives a lot of leeway in his stops so as not to get whipsawed by any fake-outs.

Is anyone having as much trouble as I am getting in to this site?

speed -- I'm in the Northeast. I believe it's the Eastern edition of the WSJ. The Pomboy Capital Corp. is located in Greenwich CT. Those are the people who put the ad in the Money and Investing section of the paper. Page C15. I know the WSJ puts out regional editions, perhaps the ads are regional to!

Is anyone having as much trouble as I am getting in to this site?

speed -- I'm in the Northeast. I believe it's the Eastern edition of the WSJ. The Pomboy Capital Corp. is located in Greenwich CT. Those are the people who put the ad in the Money and Investing section of the paper. Page C15. I know the WSJ puts out regional editions, perhaps the ads are regional to!

Mooney:

Dear buddy..pal..wonderful person etc. etc. etc. would you please ......

Go to the Kitco active silver options page, grab a line and tell me exactly what each column is saying? I see it but it doesn't even begin to make sence to me.....Thanks old buddy oh pal oh Mr. wonderful etc. etc. etc.

TTFN

Mooney:

Dear buddy..pal..wonderful person etc. etc. etc. would you please ......

Go to the Kitco active silver options page, grab a line and tell me exactly what each column is saying? I see it but it doesn't even begin to make sence to me.....Thanks old buddy oh pal oh Mr. wonderful etc. etc. etc.

TTFN

Please disregard last post. Technical problems here, there and everywhere.

Please disregard last post. Technical problems here, there and everywhere.

Monday morning @11:00 AM and still flatlining in Gold and Silver in N.Y.

Monday morning @11:00 AM and still flatlining in Gold and Silver in N.Y.

SWC off after being up earlier, moderate vol.

SWC off after being up earlier, moderate vol.

Hello, O Sneaky seller of Houses! A quick look took me about 15 minutes as I've not been there before, but everything looked scookum to me. Except I don't have time to figure out what the Ratio is about right now. Got to go out and shake up the real estate market in T.o. sometime today. :- ) I noticed that the headings at the top have self-explantory notes if you click on them. The strike prices and quotes seemed to jive with my read from the columns in the weekend Financial Post. BTW - My next options seminar takes place at the Inn on the Park on July 15th @ 1:00 p.m. - advance tickets are on sale now for only $99.00! :- ) Seriously, if you still can't figure out after today, e-mail me tonight.

Hello, O Sneaky seller of Houses! A quick look took me about 15 minutes as I've not been there before, but everything looked scookum to me. Except I don't have time to figure out what the Ratio is about right now. Got to go out and shake up the real estate market in T.o. sometime today. :- ) I noticed that the headings at the top have self-explantory notes if you click on them. The strike prices and quotes seemed to jive with my read from the columns in the weekend Financial Post. BTW - My next options seminar takes place at the Inn on the Park on July 15th @ 1:00 p.m. - advance tickets are on sale now for only $99.00! :- ) Seriously, if you still can't figure out after today, e-mail me tonight.

Just noticed the ad for e-gold at vronsky's site. Sounds like it might be
a good idea. Anybody have any experience with it? Any comments?

Just noticed the ad for e-gold at vronsky's site. Sounds like it might be
a good idea. Anybody have any experience with it? Any comments?

Blanchard & Co. was bought by GE from Mr. Blanchard and then sold to a group of employees. They have very competitive prices.

Spot silver is at 4.78 100 maples=569 100 eagles= 644 100 libertads=513
all cost $10 to ship and insure.

Earl: re your "Was the issuing agent a govt or some private entity? ( a consortium of each ) " Weatherford sees the concept of money currently in transition, with many competing, parallel, overlapping systems of money and value operative, with no single one dominating, and with ever less control over them by nation-states. International electronic transfer is even more out of a nation's control than the food-stamp black market or the trading of frequent-flyer miles. And yes, I am contemplating others' ideas rather than making a case of my own.

Mooney, it pays to step back and weigh outside opinion and differently-biased views against what is said on this site from time-to-time.

Panda, Speed: The southeast regional WSJ also has the Pomboy ad on page C15. And yes, getting in to post here was blocked for a while.

Earl: re your "Was the issuing agent a govt or some private entity? ( a consortium of each ) " Weatherford sees the concept of money currently in transition, with many competing, parallel, overlapping systems of money and value operative, with no single one dominating, and with ever less control over them by nation-states. International electronic transfer is even more out of a nation's control than the food-stamp black market or the trading of frequent-flyer miles. And yes, I am contemplating others' ideas rather than making a case of my own.

Mooney, it pays to step back and weigh outside opinion and differently-biased views against what is said on this site from time-to-time.

Panda, Speed: The southeast regional WSJ also has the Pomboy ad on page C15. And yes, getting in to post here was blocked for a while.

Blanchard & Co. was bought by GE from Mr. Blanchard and then sold to a group of employees. They have very competitive prices.

Spot silver is at 4.78 100 maples=569 100 eagles= 644 100 libertads=513
all cost $10 to ship and insure.

Virtual Eagles eye view of global gold paradigm. Is it a plot to create a single world currency? Erudite & exhaustive analysis by Oracle of Alberta:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta604.html

Virtual Eagles eye view of global gold paradigm. Is it a plot to create a single world currency? Erudite & exhaustive analysis by Oracle of Alberta:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta604.html

Each time I chek Kitco's "Near-Live Market Update" page, I get an "Error Message" that necessitates shutting Netscape down. Anyone else with same problem?

Another day of early guarded optimism here in danger of being carried onto a lee shore. Palladium still holding its ground...

Each time I chek Kitco's "Near-Live Market Update" page, I get an "Error Message" that necessitates shutting Netscape down. Anyone else with same problem?

Another day of early guarded optimism here in danger of being carried onto a lee shore. Palladium still holding its ground...

To all....In case anyone owns a life insurance policy with a "Mutual" in its
name be prepared to be fleeced. From New York Times, "I don't know
how else to say it. The ( Mutual Insurance ) companies are trying to get
into position to rob money from policyholders," said J. Robert Hunter, a
former Texas insurance commissioner.

CB:

I am arguing that gold will follow the whites before long despite one huge differnce -- namely the large supplies in the hands of central banks many of which are determined to keep the price depressed. My argument essentially boils down to the assertion that they will not be able to keep the price down up via the traditional routes of cheap gold loans and outright sales when investor demand starts to pick up. And this investor demand should develop when the stock market peaks.

INVESTOR DEMAND -- the lack of it today and the prospect of a big pick-up before long -- is the key to the gold market.

CB:

I am arguing that gold will follow the whites before long despite one huge differnce -- namely the large supplies in the hands of central banks many of which are determined to keep the price depressed. My argument essentially boils down to the assertion that they will not be able to keep the price down up via the traditional routes of cheap gold loans and outright sales when investor demand starts to pick up. And this investor demand should develop when the stock market peaks.

INVESTOR DEMAND -- the lack of it today and the prospect of a big pick-up before long -- is the key to the gold market.

To all....In case anyone owns a life insurance policy with a "Mutual" in its
name be prepared to be fleeced. From New York Times, "I don't know
how else to say it. The ( Mutual Insurance ) companies are trying to get
into position to rob money from policyholders," said J. Robert Hunter, a
former Texas insurance commissioner.

BART:

I notice that the SEPT PALLADIUM QUOTE is $0.00

Can I have 1 ton ( I'll pay for the freight ) delivered real soon?

Thanks
TTFN

BART:

I notice that the SEPT PALLADIUM QUOTE is $0.00

Can I have 1 ton ( I'll pay for the freight ) delivered real soon?

Thanks
TTFN

There are a couple of letters to the editor in Saturdays Barrons concerning supply/demand for silver...You might be interested....

There are a couple of letters to the editor in Saturdays Barrons concerning supply/demand for silver...You might be interested....

Front ( 9:04 ) Will be done in an hour or so and will do your garden next if ya got one of those good Canadian brews fer me...No BUD!

Front ( 9:04 ) Will be done in an hour or so and will do your garden next if ya got one of those good Canadian brews fer me...No BUD!

auroelf -- Thanks for the confirmation, you saved me the trouble of scanning in the ad and posting it! This Internet 'slow down' is begining to trouble me. Too many are begining to rely on it ( me, sort of ) and I KNOW it is not that reliable. It's the getting between points 'A' and 'B' that's the problem. Lose a few frame relays and you're in trouble! Who said putting every school in the U.S. on the Internet was a good idea?

WHAT is happening to the US dollar today? ( Obviously it's down, but why? )

WHAT is happening to the US dollar today? ( Obviously it's down, but why? )

auroelf -- Thanks for the confirmation, you saved me the trouble of scanning in the ad and posting it! This Internet 'slow down' is begining to trouble me. Too many are begining to rely on it ( me, sort of ) and I KNOW it is not that reliable. It's the getting between points 'A' and 'B' that's the problem. Lose a few frame relays and you're in trouble! Who said putting every school in the U.S. on the Internet was a good idea?

McAlvanys MELTDOWN OF 97 - Latest chapter: THE U.S. STOCK MARKET: WILL 1997 BE THE YEAR OF THE DEATH PLUNGE? CLICK RELOAD at Gold Digest section:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html

McAlvanys MELTDOWN OF 97 - Latest chapter: THE U.S. STOCK MARKET: WILL 1997 BE THE YEAR OF THE DEATH PLUNGE? CLICK RELOAD at Gold Digest section:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html

Paris Stock Exchange down 1.2% today:following NYSE before noon,Paris gained up to 1% before making a reversal at noon with 2% loss.Us Dollar also lost 1% against French Franc.
Why?Because the French minister of Economy and Finances,D. Strauss Kahn wants to report the signature of the monetary stability pact for EMU.Before signing anything concerning EMU,French Government wants to renegociate to introduce more social in the current monetary EMU.

Paris Stock Exchange down 1.2% today:following NYSE before noon,Paris gained up to 1% before making a reversal at noon with 2% loss.Us Dollar also lost 1% against French Franc.
Why?Because the French minister of Economy and Finances,D. Strauss Kahn wants to report the signature of the monetary stability pact for EMU.Before signing anything concerning EMU,French Government wants to renegociate to introduce more social in the current monetary EMU.

We've just put more news from today at http://www.kitco.com/news.platinum.html about the Russian Pt/Pd situation.

We've just put more news from today at http://www.kitco.com/news.platinum.html about the Russian Pt/Pd situation.

Bart: Thanks for information on the Russian Pa/Pl situation...

Bart: Thanks for information on the Russian Pa/Pl situation...

Bart, I like your new format which shows all the vitals at the head of this page.

Bart, I like your new format which shows all the vitals at the head of this page.

Bart, I like your new format which shows all the vitals at the head of this page.

Bart, I like your new format which shows all the vitals at the head of this page.

TED:

What timing.... Just came in from Seadooin' and fishin' ....

A "BLUE" for regular work and a "FOSTER's" if you do the windows and dishes ( Mooney knows how much I hate them ) . A case if you get rid of this cat's that in heat !!!!!

TTFN

TED:

What timing.... Just came in from Seadooin' and fishin' ....

A "BLUE" for regular work and a "FOSTER's" if you do the windows and dishes ( Mooney knows how much I hate them ) . A case if you get rid of this cat's that in heat !!!!!

TTFN

TED:

What timing.... Just came in from Seadooin' and fishin' ....

A "BLUE" for regular work and a "FOSTER's" if you do the windows and dishes ( Mooney knows how much I hate them ) . A case if you get rid of this cat that's in heat !!!!!

TTFN

As featured in the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, CBC, Forbes
Magazine, etc.

http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html

As featured in the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, CBC, Forbes
Magazine, etc.

http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html

TED:

What timing.... Just came in from Seadooin' and fishin' ....

A "BLUE" for regular work and a "FOSTER's" if you do the windows and dishes ( Mooney knows how much I hate them ) . A case if you get rid of this cat that's in heat !!!!!

TTFN

Today's gold stock rally unimpressive. Low volume and not much upward movement. Doubt very much that a big move north in either bullion or stocks is imminent. July still looks like it will be a much better month than June for gold investors.

The overall market also may be due for a modest correction. Today's advance narrowly based with little small-cap or mid-cap participation. But the underlying bull trend should continue awhile longer.

Today's gold stock rally unimpressive. Low volume and not much upward movement. Doubt very much that a big move north in either bullion or stocks is imminent. July still looks like it will be a much better month than June for gold investors.

The overall market also may be due for a modest correction. Today's advance narrowly based with little small-cap or mid-cap participation. But the underlying bull trend should continue awhile longer.

Alright, which one of you guys was buying the XAU at the close. Up 1.75 and counting. : )

Alright, which one of you guys was buying the XAU at the close. Up 1.75 and counting. : )

When I went to pick up some 1-oz. Englehard bars at lunch today, the proprietor told me something very interesting. He said that last year one shipment of what was, I believe, 100 oz. platinum bars that came in from Russia had date stamps of "1938" on them. Sounds to me like they were digging pretty deep into the old stockpiles at that time. Anyone hear anything to confirm that story? TIA

To: APH, Short Bull, any other TA person that thought XAU was going to mid 90's:
has anything happened yet to change your previous forecasts? might you give us an update?

To: APH, Short Bull, any other TA person that thought XAU was going to mid 90's:
has anything happened yet to change your previous forecasts? might you give us an update?

When I went to pick up some 1-oz. Englehard bars at lunch today, the proprietor told me something very interesting. He said that last year one shipment of what was, I believe, 100 oz. platinum bars that came in from Russia had date stamps of "1938" on them. Sounds to me like they were digging pretty deep into the old stockpiles at that time. Anyone hear anything to confirm that story? TIA

Looks like I was a bit premature in writing off today's gold stock rally. XAU and HUI rallied towards the end of the day to post reasonably good gains. Low volume still troubles me though.

Looks like I was a bit premature in writing off today's gold stock rally. XAU and HUI rallied towards the end of the day to post reasonably good gains. Low volume still troubles me though.

Read "Gold -- The Barbarous Relic -- Strikes Again" by John Tompkins at http://www.talks.com/portfolio.html

Read "Gold -- The Barbarous Relic -- Strikes Again" by John Tompkins at http://www.talks.com/portfolio.html

Does anyone know a refiner that will take 90% & 40% junk silver coins and melt it down into 999 bars. I can not find phone # or web pages on Johnson Mathey or Englehard.

Does anyone know a refiner that will take 90% & 40% junk silver coins and melt it down into 999 bars. I can not find phone # or web pages on Johnson Mathey or Englehard.

This asset class of over 8 trillion dollars is the most visible manifestation of our once in a lifetime credit bubble. Almost every fundamental measure of stock value is at lows never seen in the history of this country. Of course this has been true for some time. Still the market goes up. The top could well be a ways off yet. But the higher we go the risker it gets. This is the message of the fundamentals. The risk in owning stocks is greater now than it has ever been in this country, including 1929. Sooner or later the top will be in and it will be apparent to many that it is time to sell. When that time comes who will be buying?

This asset class of over 8 trillion dollars is the most visible manifestation of our once in a lifetime credit bubble. Almost every fundamental measure of stock value is at lows never seen in the history of this country. Of course this has been true for some time. Still the market goes up. The top could well be a ways off yet. But the higher we go the risker it gets. This is the message of the fundamentals. The risk in owning stocks is greater now than it has ever been in this country, including 1929. Sooner or later the top will be in and it will be apparent to many that it is time to sell. When that time comes who will be buying?

BW: Very cogent observations on the U.S. stock market. Looks like it will go considerably higher, but once the top is in the aftermath will be ugly in the extreme. This is the primary reason I am so bullish on gold.

BW: Very cogent observations on the U.S. stock market. Looks like it will go considerably higher, but once the top is in the aftermath will be ugly in the extreme. This is the primary reason I am so bullish on gold.

Some interesting stuff from James Stack of "Investech".

"Over 92% of 4360 mutual funds have failed to match the 8.2% gain in the S&P 500 index in the intial 4 months of 1997. Over 93.6% underperformed the S&P 500 index over the past 12 months!"

Re: MSFT versus the big 3 autos: "Right now it would require 11 consecutive years of 20% earnings gains for Microsoft's P/E to match that of these auto stocks. Comparing revenue, those 3 auto companies sell $370 billion in product a year, or 35 times Microsoft's $10.5 billion. Yet Microsoft stock is valued at more than 1.4 times *all* three auto stocks *put together*."

I guess Mr. Stack will never understand. Will he? ..... ( :- ) )

Some interesting stuff from James Stack of "Investech".

"Over 92% of 4360 mutual funds have failed to match the 8.2% gain in the S&P 500 index in the intial 4 months of 1997. Over 93.6% underperformed the S&P 500 index over the past 12 months!"

Re: MSFT versus the big 3 autos: "Right now it would require 11 consecutive years of 20% earnings gains for Microsoft's P/E to match that of these auto stocks. Comparing revenue, those 3 auto companies sell $370 billion in product a year, or 35 times Microsoft's $10.5 billion. Yet Microsoft stock is valued at more than 1.4 times *all* three auto stocks *put together*."

I guess Mr. Stack will never understand. Will he? ..... ( :- ) )

We will sue the appropriate Government Departments for
their crueal attacks on "Joe the Camel" and _____ gold
and silver if you join us. Please help us defend Joe

We will sue the appropriate Government Departments for
their crueal attacks on "Joe the Camel" and _____ gold
and silver if you join us. Please help us defend Joe

George Cole: Are you devoting any personal resources to bear funds? ie Rydex Ursa or a similar vehicle? I have some funds available in a SEP but am torn between putting it on the gold table or betting against the general market. I know gold and gold funds will perform very well but a sharp drop in general equities could produce an equally sharp short term gain in a bear fund as well. The intent of course would be to hold the bear fund for a short term and then switch back into something PM related. Any thoughts?

George Cole: Are you devoting any personal resources to bear funds? ie Rydex Ursa or a similar vehicle? I have some funds available in a SEP but am torn between putting it on the gold table or betting against the general market. I know gold and gold funds will perform very well but a sharp drop in general equities could produce an equally sharp short term gain in a bear fund as well. The intent of course would be to hold the bear fund for a short term and then switch back into something PM related. Any thoughts?

Speed: I'm waiting for your mathematical help. If I bought gold at 850 I would have about $350 now. How much would I have if I bought gold when it was $20 and at the same time bought $20 worth of the DOW? A Fourty dollar investment in 1930? What do you think about the concept of opportunity costs?

Speed: I'm waiting for your mathematical help. If I bought gold at 850 I would have about $350 now. How much would I have if I bought gold when it was $20 and at the same time bought $20 worth of the DOW? A Fourty dollar investment in 1930? What do you think about the concept of opportunity costs?

The day of reckoning is at hand. may your decisions be wise.

The day of reckoning is at hand. may your decisions be wise.

Yellowdog - Nothing has changed other than timing. I'm out of my XAU puts giving back about half of my profits. The rally today is very suspect due to the lack of follow though of the gold funds, FSAGX was down while the XAU had a decent rally not a good omen for the xau, Xau could go as high as 105 tomorrow, aclose above 105 with a strong day up in FSAGX I would start reconsidering. Along with the negative look of xau vs. fsagx.... Aug. Gold is hitting resistance at the down trend line drawn from the 5/12 highs and looks like it wants to go down under 340 which would be a nice finish to a downward wedge.
Bottom line still looking for XAU to trade below 97, front month gold down close to 336 and Aug gold to trade under 340.

Yellowdog - Nothing has changed other than timing. I'm out of my XAU puts giving back about half of my profits. The rally today is very suspect due to the lack of follow though of the gold funds, FSAGX was down while the XAU had a decent rally not a good omen for the xau, Xau could go as high as 105 tomorrow, aclose above 105 with a strong day up in FSAGX I would start reconsidering. Along with the negative look of xau vs. fsagx.... Aug. Gold is hitting resistance at the down trend line drawn from the 5/12 highs and looks like it wants to go down under 340 which would be a nice finish to a downward wedge.
Bottom line still looking for XAU to trade below 97, front month gold down close to 336 and Aug gold to trade under 340.

The gold and silver mkts are acting peculiar and like they are under compression. Dollar up strong economy friday/EMU and today weak does this mean weak economy and coincidentally bonds weak. The BOYS have so many balls to juggle maybe things will start to go our way. Newsletters and opines give the 1929 vision look possible. With the credit based expansion we have had things have to reverse soon.
Gold and gold stks should zoom when problems hit as they have not risen with equity rise.

What effect will forward selling by gold equities have in a gold bull. Ques? How much hedging is too much?

The gold and silver mkts are acting peculiar and like they are under compression. Dollar up strong economy friday/EMU and today weak does this mean weak economy and coincidentally bonds weak. The BOYS have so many balls to juggle maybe things will start to go our way. Newsletters and opines give the 1929 vision look possible. With the credit based expansion we have had things have to reverse soon.
Gold and gold stks should zoom when problems hit as they have not risen with equity rise.

What effect will forward selling by gold equities have in a gold bull. Ques? How much hedging is too much?

Fundy: If you bought gold at 850, you were incredibly unlucky. It only sold for that price for about 10 minutes. The dow peaked in 1929 at about 385 and didn't achieve that level again until the 1950's. During that time, gold went from $20 to $35 per oz., a 75% gain. My charts are at home so these numbers are from memory ( read that unguaranteed ; ) ) .Many companies went bankrupt during the 1930's and their stock became worthless. I understand opportunity costs, but am unclear as to your point. We can point to periods in history where stocks out performed all other assets, but be careful about the claims that "the market" has always outperformed gold. It hasn't. Good stock traders make money, just like good metals traders make money. Most of us here are traders, not investors. I fully intend to sell my gold and silver when the price is right. I also trade mutual funds and stocks, so if you're looking for a gold ideologue, I'm not it. I guess my point is that I don't know anyone who buys and holds for 70 years, so these examples while interesting are not realistic.

Fundy: If you bought gold at 850, you were incredibly unlucky. It only sold for that price for about 10 minutes. The dow peaked in 1929 at about 385 and didn't achieve that level again until the 1950's. During that time, gold went from $20 to $35 per oz., a 75% gain. My charts are at home so these numbers are from memory ( read that unguaranteed ; ) ) .Many companies went bankrupt during the 1930's and their stock became worthless. I understand opportunity costs, but am unclear as to your point. We can point to periods in history where stocks out performed all other assets, but be careful about the claims that "the market" has always outperformed gold. It hasn't. Good stock traders make money, just like good metals traders make money. Most of us here are traders, not investors. I fully intend to sell my gold and silver when the price is right. I also trade mutual funds and stocks, so if you're looking for a gold ideologue, I'm not it. I guess my point is that I don't know anyone who buys and holds for 70 years, so these examples while interesting are not realistic.

APH: Thank you for your response. I wish you well in your trading.:- )

APH: Thank you for your response. I wish you well in your trading.:- )

Earl: ( 17:40 ) Great bit of info, relative to Microsoft's
value versus the Big 3, but a sorry state of afairs.
Hope that Gates buys the PM's with some of the profit.
Panda: Pomboy Capital Corp. Letter also in the US
( Western ) edition of Financial Times. He feels that CB's
made about $500 million on sales and leasing, but lost
$170 billion because of the present gold price. He uses
$500 gold to arrive at the $170 billion loss, where he
figures gold price would have been without CB
interference.

Earl: ( 17:40 ) Great bit of info, relative to Microsoft's
value versus the Big 3, but a sorry state of afairs.
Hope that Gates buys the PM's with some of the profit.
Panda: Pomboy Capital Corp. Letter also in the US
( Western ) edition of Financial Times. He feels that CB's
made about $500 million on sales and leasing, but lost
$170 billion because of the present gold price. He uses
$500 gold to arrive at the $170 billion loss, where he
figures gold price would have been without CB
interference.

JDM -- The story is apparently true. It was reported some time ago in the WSJ or Barrons'. I remember reading the articles, there were several appearing regarding the circa 1900 -193X date stamps on ingots out of the USSR. There were also stories about the ingots being .9X fine gold as opposed to the .999+ fine gold that is todays standard. It does indeed sound like the bottom of the barrel is being scraped.

JDM -- The story is apparently true. It was reported some time ago in the WSJ or Barrons'. I remember reading the articles, there were several appearing regarding the circa 1900 -193X date stamps on ingots out of the USSR. There were also stories about the ingots being .9X fine gold as opposed to the .999+ fine gold that is todays standard. It does indeed sound like the bottom of the barrel is being scraped.

Hey Bartman ... good job with the chart ( adding gold and silver ) .

Hey Bartman ... good job with the chart ( adding gold and silver ) .

I believe that the 280/300 will be seen soon in the gold markets.. It appears
that the support will give way.. Weak longs have entered this market because
of the rise in palladium and platinum.. And this has set up the possibility of
stops being set off should the market start to break. There is no inflation,
crude oil has dropped and so has the grains.. Personally I would sell rallies
at this juncture or buy puts..

This is obviously just my personal opinion but I believe the risk/reward for the
"longs" is more risk..

I believe that the 280/300 will be seen soon in the gold markets.. It appears
that the support will give way.. Weak longs have entered this market because
of the rise in palladium and platinum.. And this has set up the possibility of
stops being set off should the market start to break. There is no inflation,
crude oil has dropped and so has the grains.. Personally I would sell rallies
at this juncture or buy puts..

This is obviously just my personal opinion but I believe the risk/reward for the
"longs" is more risk..

Fundy: How are the tides Today??

Fundy: How are the tides Today??

Scenario for $5000 gold and Dow 2000

Under the Clinton Administration, the United States government secretly sold the strategic oil reserve to raise money. Later, to cover up, the United States publicly sold the reserve to bring down the price of gasoline but the price of oil didn't go down because the strategic oil reserve had been sold previously.

After World War II the United States asked Switzerland for the gold confiscated from those held in Germany in the concentration camps. It was to be given back to survivors and relatives. Switzerland refused. Case closed until recently when Clinton asked for the gold again. He did not ask for the money value to return to the survivors and heirs of the holocaust victims; he asked for the gold and the United States would receive the gold and pay out cash. Why did the United States need the gold. Were the victims of the holocaust and their heirs being used, as an excuse to attain desperately needed gold reserves?

If the government could secretly sell something as important as the strategic oil reserve, or spend the funds in the Social Security Trust Fund, it is not a stretch of the imagination to suspect that the government could sell secretly its gold reserves. It is rich. Sell the gold secretly and issue paper gold backed by gold that has been sold previously. In fact, based on the world governments' modus operandi I would be far most surprised if most governments had gold reserves. They would be going against the spirit of their own operations if they kept their gold reserves in tact. Why should world governments act underhandedly in most matters but act honestly when it came to gold? The assumption of presently existing government gold reserves is illogical.

Recently German leaders wished to re-value the worth of their gold reserves. There was a lot of commotion and then the German Government decided not to revalue their gold reserves. Could it be possible that when the German leaders could not find those gold reserves when they looked for them.

Recently the United States and other countries have tried to pressure Switzerland to sell its gold reserves onto the world gold market. Why should anyone care? Why Switzerland? Could Switzerland be the last government to hold gold reserves? Could there be no more gold to meet the demand for the physical delivery of gold?

Could a similar scenario have occurred recently with Platinum and Palladium?

Of the large gold sales by Central banks how many have involved the delivery of physical gold?

Could the so-called gold reserves be stated realistically as a MINUS number.

Will the United States again make the ownership of gold illegal?

Will the United States seize the production of U.S. gold mines by buying up produced gold at a set unrealistic price?

IS THERE ANY GOLD IN RESERVE ANYWHERE?

Scenario for $5000 gold and Dow 2000

Under the Clinton Administration, the United States government secretly sold the strategic oil reserve to raise money. Later, to cover up, the United States publicly sold the reserve to bring down the price of gasoline but the price of oil didn't go down because the strategic oil reserve had been sold previously.

After World War II the United States asked Switzerland for the gold confiscated from those held in Germany in the concentration camps. It was to be given back to survivors and relatives. Switzerland refused. Case closed until recently when Clinton asked for the gold again. He did not ask for the money value to return to the survivors and heirs of the holocaust victims; he asked for the gold and the United States would receive the gold and pay out cash. Why did the United States need the gold. Were the victims of the holocaust and their heirs being used, as an excuse to attain desperately needed gold reserves?

If the government could secretly sell something as important as the strategic oil reserve, or spend the funds in the Social Security Trust Fund, it is not a stretch of the imagination to suspect that the government could sell secretly its gold reserves. It is rich. Sell the gold secretly and issue paper gold backed by gold that has been sold previously. In fact, based on the world governments' modus operandi I would be far most surprised if most governments had gold reserves. They would be going against the spirit of their own operations if they kept their gold reserves in tact. Why should world governments act underhandedly in most matters but act honestly when it came to gold? The assumption of presently existing government gold reserves is illogical.

Recently German leaders wished to re-value the worth of their gold reserves. There was a lot of commotion and then the German Government decided not to revalue their gold reserves. Could it be possible that when the German leaders could not find those gold reserves when they looked for them.

Recently the United States and other countries have tried to pressure Switzerland to sell its gold reserves onto the world gold market. Why should anyone care? Why Switzerland? Could Switzerland be the last government to hold gold reserves? Could there be no more gold to meet the demand for the physical delivery of gold?

Could a similar scenario have occurred recently with Platinum and Palladium?

Of the large gold sales by Central banks how many have involved the delivery of physical gold?

Could the so-called gold reserves be stated realistically as a MINUS number.

Will the United States again make the ownership of gold illegal?

Will the United States seize the production of U.S. gold mines by buying up produced gold at a set unrealistic price?

IS THERE ANY GOLD IN RESERVE ANYWHERE?

I have not seen anyone discussing the "y2k" problem and it's possible influance on the financial markets. Any opinnions?
Thanks

I have not seen anyone discussing the "y2k" problem and it's possible influance on the financial markets. Any opinnions?
Thanks

Dollar weaker overnight. See http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/flash.cgi Scroll down an click on Globex Flash Page for overnight numbers.

Dollar weaker overnight. See http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/flash.cgi Scroll down an click on Globex Flash Page for overnight numbers.

Market maven George S. Cole believes secular market reversals are near: Financials DOWN & Hard Assets UP, perhaps reminiscent of 1930s & 1970s. Cole Market Insights - Click RELOAD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html

Market maven George S. Cole believes secular market reversals are near: Financials DOWN & Hard Assets UP, perhaps reminiscent of 1930s & 1970s. Cole Market Insights - Click RELOAD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html

APH: Your negative short-term outlook probably is correct. This XAU rally just doesn't "feel" right. Low volume rallies are always suspect.

Earl: I do not have any money in Rydex Ursa. I do hope to purchase some S & P 500 puts this summer to profit from the big drop I expect in the fall.

APH: Your negative short-term outlook probably is correct. This XAU rally just doesn't "feel" right. Low volume rallies are always suspect.

Earl: I do not have any money in Rydex Ursa. I do hope to purchase some S & P 500 puts this summer to profit from the big drop I expect in the fall.

George Cole: I agree with the SP puts. Unfortunately, this is a tax deferred account and cannot do likewise.

George Cole: I agree with the SP puts. Unfortunately, this is a tax deferred account and cannot do likewise.

World shattering metals report gives reason for Platinum & Palladium strength. It proves why same explosive price rise in Gold & Silver will occur - Please RELOAD Digest page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html

World shattering metals report gives reason for Platinum & Palladium strength. It proves why same explosive price rise in Gold & Silver will occur - Please RELOAD Digest page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html

Comex warehouse gold stocks down today by 7,807 oz to 967,026 oz.

Comex open interest as of yesterday was 159,865 contracts.

ELIGIBLE Comex gold stocks are 285,223 oz to cover the comex open interest. This leaves a 'strong' 1.78 oz of gold available to be delivered for each 100 oz contract!! Read the excellent article 'Two Down and Two To Go" on Gold Eagle. It is only a matter of time!

Hi folks, sorry I haven't been here for awhile. I had the fortune of selling my house within three weeks of listing it and buying another within a week and then finding out the the phone company couldn't get me a line for two weeks! Talk about going thru Kitco withdrawal!

Comex warehouse gold stocks down today by 7,807 oz to 967,026 oz.

Comex open interest as of yesterday was 159,865 contracts.

ELIGIBLE Comex gold stocks are 285,223 oz to cover the comex open interest. This leaves a 'strong' 1.78 oz of gold available to be delivered for each 100 oz contract!! Read the excellent article 'Two Down and Two To Go" on Gold Eagle. It is only a matter of time!

Hi folks, sorry I haven't been here for awhile. I had the fortune of selling my house within three weeks of listing it and buying another within a week and then finding out the the phone company couldn't get me a line for two weeks! Talk about going thru Kitco withdrawal!

Front ( 15:58 ) The gun is loaded and I'm goin after the case of "BLUE"....
Where do you live that you can be out on the water at this time of year??

Front ( 15:58 ) The gun is loaded and I'm goin after the case of "BLUE"....
Where do you live that you can be out on the water at this time of year??

Mooney: 16-to-1 gold-to-silver price ratio was mostly established by the free markets when supply stood at a 1-to-16 ratio. Over the past century, however, newly-mined silver has been harder to come by than gold. In recent years, the supply of gold-to-silver has dropped to 1-to-8. That suggests than when monetary demand re-emerges for the precious metals, the gold-to-silver price ratio will fall below the 16-to-1 ratio of a century earlier.

Mooney: 16-to-1 gold-to-silver price ratio was mostly established by the free markets when supply stood at a 1-to-16 ratio. Over the past century, however, newly-mined silver has been harder to come by than gold. In recent years, the supply of gold-to-silver has dropped to 1-to-8. That suggests than when monetary demand re-emerges for the precious metals, the gold-to-silver price ratio will fall below the 16-to-1 ratio of a century earlier.

BW: Size of U.S. stock market is $8 trillion as measured by Wilshire 5000 Index. However, if you include all stocks ( including unlisted ones ) , the Federal Reserve estimates the U.S. stock market now has a market value of about $11 trillion. You are correct, the market is much more over-valued now than it was in either 1929 or 1987.

BW: Size of U.S. stock market is $8 trillion as measured by Wilshire 5000 Index. However, if you include all stocks ( including unlisted ones ) , the Federal Reserve estimates the U.S. stock market now has a market value of about $11 trillion. You are correct, the market is much more over-valued now than it was in either 1929 or 1987.

LB: A newsletter called "Remnant Review" had a good article on the Y2K problem. I don't have the address or phone number. Maybe someone else out there can help you with that.

LB: A newsletter called "Remnant Review" had a good article on the Y2K problem. I don't have the address or phone number. Maybe someone else out there can help you with that.

Arden: Good to see you back. ..... More, I heartily concur with your opinion on the piece by Ted Butler. *Absolutely*, must reading for those who have not. Ted's understanding of the paper metal business is a treasure for those of us who know of it but lack the details. And the devil is in the details, as they say.

Arden: Good to see you back. ..... More, I heartily concur with your opinion on the piece by Ted Butler. *Absolutely*, must reading for those who have not. Ted's understanding of the paper metal business is a treasure for those of us who know of it but lack the details. And the devil is in the details, as they say.

Tort: Ya got an incommin missile....and I'm headed fer the easy chair!

Tort: Ya got an incommin missile....and I'm headed fer the easy chair!

Forgot to say that EBN Gold is up .60...

Forgot to say that EBN Gold is up .60...

Ted, received your red hot missle. Responded with scud of my own.

Ted, received your red hot missle. Responded with scud of my own.

As featured in the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, CBC, Forbes
Magazine, etc.

http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html

As featured in the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, CBC, Forbes
Magazine, etc.

http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html

WW @18:27: "How much forward selling is too much?" ... Any at all is too much! ... ( :- ) )

Speed: I bought gold at an average price of $295. I have never thought that the "markets" always outperformed gold let alone stated that. My 2 points are as follows. 1 ) with regard to Vronsky's comment that the current market looks like 1929-1935. Goldbug's have been told that gold shares were good investments during the '30's. Few know that the good investment was the result of Gov intervention to keep the price up at $20. This was about an average pay for a month. Anyone buying gold must keep in mind that the chances of the US Gov doing this sort of thing again are based in today's reality not that of 60 years ago. 2 ) Gold has been declining from $ 850 to about $350 while $850 worth of DOW about 20 years ago is now worth over $ 3000. Sure many people did not pay that for gold. Put the price at $400 and the argument remains the same. The DOW was much better investment and remains so. I understand that some might think that $850 was a long time ago. Does anyone think that the $1000 or 5000 or $ 20,000 projections are based on the current $350 gold?
While we can cant the virtues of gold here daily the fact remains it has been a terrible investment for the last 2 decades. You may be an trader and many others as well. Others are investors thinking about the "store of value" myth of gold and the hedge against inflation myth. Anyone who is a trader might as well be trading nickel and the perceived and promoted virtues of gold are irrelevant I agree.

Speed: I bought gold at an average price of $295. I have never thought that the "markets" always outperformed gold let alone stated that. My 2 points are as follows. 1 ) with regard to Vronsky's comment that the current market looks like 1929-1935. Goldbug's have been told that gold shares were good investments during the '30's. Few know that the good investment was the result of Gov intervention to keep the price up at $20. This was about an average pay for a month. Anyone buying gold must keep in mind that the chances of the US Gov doing this sort of thing again are based in today's reality not that of 60 years ago. 2 ) Gold has been declining from $ 850 to about $350 while $850 worth of DOW about 20 years ago is now worth over $ 3000. Sure many people did not pay that for gold. Put the price at $400 and the argument remains the same. The DOW was much better investment and remains so. I understand that some might think that $850 was a long time ago. Does anyone think that the $1000 or 5000 or $ 20,000 projections are based on the current $350 gold?
While we can cant the virtues of gold here daily the fact remains it has been a terrible investment for the last 2 decades. You may be an trader and many others as well. Others are investors thinking about the "store of value" myth of gold and the hedge against inflation myth. Anyone who is a trader might as well be trading nickel and the perceived and promoted virtues of gold are irrelevant I agree.

WW @18:27: "How much forward selling is too much?" ... Any at all is too much! ... ( :- ) )

One of US best-known Analysts in last 20 years, James Dines, shares bullish report on Platinum & Palladium - & their impact on Gold. He likes Stillwater Mining. See Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html

One of US best-known Analysts in last 20 years, James Dines, shares bullish report on Platinum & Palladium - & their impact on Gold. He likes Stillwater Mining. See Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html

HI EARL!

Arctic Spirit: ( I dint look this time ) .... I think we get the idea. Now. You owe each of us here a genuine original of that hat. OK? ..... ( :- ) )

Arctic Spirit: ( I dint look this time ) .... I think we get the idea. Now. You owe each of us here a genuine original of that hat. OK? ..... ( :- ) )

HI EARL!

Here's for Blonde and all others of the lighter colored hair.

On a plane bound for New York the flight attendant approached a
blonde sitting in the first class section and requested that she
move to coach since she did not have a first class ticket. The
blonde replied, "I'm blonde, I'm beautiful, I'm going to New York,
and I'm not moving." Not wanting to argue with a customer the
flight attendant asked the co-pilot to speak with her. He went
to talk with the woman asking her to please move out of the first
class section. Again, the blonde replied, "I'm blonde, I'm
beautiful, I'm going to New York, and I'm not moving." The
co-pilot returned to the cockpit and asked the captain what he
should do. The captain said, "I'm married to a blonde, and I
know how to handle this." He went to the first class section
and whispered in the blonde's ear. She immediately jumped up and
ran to the coach section mumbling to herself, "Why didn't
anyone just say so." Surprised, the flight attendant and the
co-pilot asked what he said to her that finally convinced her to
move from her seat. He said, "I told her the first class section
wasn't going to New York."

Here's for Blonde and all others of the lighter colored hair.

On a plane bound for New York the flight attendant approached a
blonde sitting in the first class section and requested that she
move to coach since she did not have a first class ticket. The
blonde replied, "I'm blonde, I'm beautiful, I'm going to New York,
and I'm not moving." Not wanting to argue with a customer the
flight attendant asked the co-pilot to speak with her. He went
to talk with the woman asking her to please move out of the first
class section. Again, the blonde replied, "I'm blonde, I'm
beautiful, I'm going to New York, and I'm not moving." The
co-pilot returned to the cockpit and asked the captain what he
should do. The captain said, "I'm married to a blonde, and I
know how to handle this." He went to the first class section
and whispered in the blonde's ear. She immediately jumped up and
ran to the coach section mumbling to herself, "Why didn't
anyone just say so." Surprised, the flight attendant and the
co-pilot asked what he said to her that finally convinced her to
move from her seat. He said, "I told her the first class section
wasn't going to New York."

Fundy: I'm most interested in your #1 point: That the government intervened to prop up the gold price at $20. What facts or reasoning do you offer to support such a claim?

Fundy: I'm most interested in your #1 point: That the government intervened to prop up the gold price at $20. What facts or reasoning do you offer to support such a claim?

Fundy, Speed et al: THIS WAS POSTED AT KITCO THREE MONTHS AGO

Date: Thu Mar 13 1997 12:34
vronsky ( POP QUIZ - WHICH HAD BETTER HISTORICAL RESULTS: IBM OR HM?? ) :

HERE IS ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS: "From January 1959 to January 1995 ( 36 years ) , which stock performed the best: IBM or Homestake Mining ( HM ) ? How come such a dumb question? Because the answer was so surprising to make me, that I believe it will also be to most people.

Homestake Mining was the WINNER! It appreciated at a compound annual rate of 6.5%, while IBM came in at a mere 4.5%. The Dow Industrials during the same period was about 5.25%."

I found this quote in my financial readings about a year ago, and just ran across it again today. Interestingly, it makes one think about Wall Street's incesstant carping AND CANTING that common stocks are a better long-term hedge against inflation. My Aunt-Fanny they are! It is NOT just a simple 2.0% per year that HM outperformed IBM for the 36-year period, BUT THAT HM DID 44% PER YEAR BETTER THAN BIG-BLUE!

Who sez dem gold stocks ain't better den common stocks?!

Fundy, Speed et al: THIS WAS POSTED AT KITCO THREE MONTHS AGO

Date: Thu Mar 13 1997 12:34
vronsky ( POP QUIZ - WHICH HAD BETTER HISTORICAL RESULTS: IBM OR HM?? ) :

HERE IS ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS: "From January 1959 to January 1995 ( 36 years ) , which stock performed the best: IBM or Homestake Mining ( HM ) ? How come such a dumb question? Because the answer was so surprising to make me, that I believe it will also be to most people.

Homestake Mining was the WINNER! It appreciated at a compound annual rate of 6.5%, while IBM came in at a mere 4.5%. The Dow Industrials during the same period was about 5.25%."

I found this quote in my financial readings about a year ago, and just ran across it again today. Interestingly, it makes one think about Wall Street's incesstant carping AND CANTING that common stocks are a better long-term hedge against inflation. My Aunt-Fanny they are! It is NOT just a simple 2.0% per year that HM outperformed IBM for the 36-year period, BUT THAT HM DID 44% PER YEAR BETTER THAN BIG-BLUE!

Who sez dem gold stocks ain't better den common stocks?!

The Dollar continues it's slide against the Yen and EBN Gold up .50...
Tort: Where is Blonde these days???...and CHEER UP!...

The Dollar continues it's slide against the Yen and EBN Gold up .50...
Tort: Where is Blonde these days???...and CHEER UP!...

Perhaps, its a function of my overburdened teeny tiny brain cells. So few in number that I am able to identify them by name ... but it still seems to me that Ted Butler's piece on Gold Eagle - "Two Down, Two to go" is so significant that it should warrant greater discussion among the assembled. If I understand it correctly, ( open to conjecture ) he is describing the destruction of formerly orderly markets as a result of wholesale application of the new 'paradigm'. ie paper is as important as product .... and besides we can create more paper than product.

I wouldn't expect handsprings over the revelation but IMO it is harbinger of things to come for the other two and the last I looked this was a gold/silver site.

Some would probably argue that the thinness of the PGM market made it susceptible to such. I would argue that the number of players are always commensurate to the market involved and, more, since the gold market has such heavy infiltration of politically motivated influences, that the we are still unable to guage the true depth of the potential or grasp the full impact of what is/may/likely to happen. It may be even more devastating ... and profitable for us. ( I am ashamed to say that, forgive me ) .... If I am the only one who thinks its significant, then lets open the SS thread again.

Perhaps, its a function of my overburdened teeny tiny brain cells. So few in number that I am able to identify them by name ... but it still seems to me that Ted Butler's piece on Gold Eagle - "Two Down, Two to go" is so significant that it should warrant greater discussion among the assembled. If I understand it correctly, ( open to conjecture ) he is describing the destruction of formerly orderly markets as a result of wholesale application of the new 'paradigm'. ie paper is as important as product .... and besides we can create more paper than product.

I wouldn't expect handsprings over the revelation but IMO it is harbinger of things to come for the other two and the last I looked this was a gold/silver site.

Some would probably argue that the thinness of the PGM market made it susceptible to such. I would argue that the number of players are always commensurate to the market involved and, more, since the gold market has such heavy infiltration of politically motivated influences, that the we are still unable to guage the true depth of the potential or grasp the full impact of what is/may/likely to happen. It may be even more devastating ... and profitable for us. ( I am ashamed to say that, forgive me ) .... If I am the only one who thinks its significant, then lets open the SS thread again.

Virtual Eagles eye view of global gold paradigm. Is it a plot to create a single world currency? Erudite & exhaustive analysis by Oracle of Alberta:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta604.html

Virtual Eagles eye view of global gold paradigm. Is it a plot to create a single world currency? Erudite & exhaustive analysis by Oracle of Alberta:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta604.html

LB: Ive been lurking for a while and I also noticed a significant
absence of any consideration for what impact will Y2K factor have on
financial markets in coming years. Is it because the community does
not know about it or because we do not consider it as an issue?! Though
my master degree is in economics for the last 27 years I "do" computers
and my economic analysis skills are mostly gone but here are my 2 pennies
worth on Y2K.

I dont see an economic "meltdown" as some people predict it but I see
a significant "difficulties". I work on Y2K problem and I can say that
a number of companies wont be ready by year 2000. This will result in
disruption of economic activities, some companies wont make it ( meaning
going out of business ) for some it will mean reduced revenues. We all
know what news like that do to the market ( e.g. Intel announcement
last week ) .

Y2K problem will start to impact P/L statements by the end of 98 because
accounting rules say that Y2K cost must be expensed instead of amortized
and because auditors auditing financial statements will be held
responsible for detecting and reporting errors and irregularities and
potential difficulties which may have an impact on company performance.
I believe this will be a significant trigger for reinforcing "market
meltdown" which is predicted to start sometimes in the next two years.

Just to complicated the whole issue, starting in 2001 you will see a
significant amount of litigation activities, class lawsuits, etc..
Litigation cost of Y2K is expected to exceed ( by a large factor ) the
cost of correcting the problem ( estimated to be around $600 billions
worldwide just for information systems not including things like
failing appliances, medical instrumentation, etc. ) . I think that this
will just prolong the bear market following the market collapse.

My question ( and the reason for my lurking ) is how to play this market.
My instinct goes along with many list members saying metals will
experience a significant growth because it may be the only "stable"
investment which may let you go back into collapsed market when its at
its low.

Again, I know more about computer business than about market so this is
just MHO but my retirement from my job in "computers" ( I am extremely
tired of it ) depends on it.

LB: Ive been lurking for a while and I also noticed a significant
absence of any consideration for what impact will Y2K factor have on
financial markets in coming years. Is it because the community does
not know about it or because we do not consider it as an issue?! Though
my master degree is in economics for the last 27 years I "do" computers
and my economic analysis skills are mostly gone but here are my 2 pennies
worth on Y2K.

I dont see an economic "meltdown" as some people predict it but I see
a significant "difficulties". I work on Y2K problem and I can say that
a number of companies wont be ready by year 2000. This will result in
disruption of economic activities, some companies wont make it ( meaning
going out of business ) for some it will mean reduced revenues. We all
know what news like that do to the market ( e.g. Intel announcement
last week ) .

Y2K problem will start to impact P/L statements by the end of 98 because
accounting rules say that Y2K cost must be expensed instead of amortized
and because auditors auditing financial statements will be held
responsible for detecting and reporting errors and irregularities and
potential difficulties which may have an impact on company performance.
I believe this will be a significant trigger for reinforcing "market
meltdown" which is predicted to start sometimes in the next two years.

Just to complicated the whole issue, starting in 2001 you will see a
significant amount of litigation activities, class lawsuits, etc..
Litigation cost of Y2K is expected to exceed ( by a large factor ) the
cost of correcting the problem ( estimated to be around $600 billions
worldwide just for information systems not including things like
failing appliances, medical instrumentation, etc. ) . I think that this
will just prolong the bear market following the market collapse.

My question ( and the reason for my lurking ) is how to play this market.
My instinct goes along with many list members saying metals will
experience a significant growth because it may be the only "stable"
investment which may let you go back into collapsed market when its at
its low.

Again, I know more about computer business than about market so this is
just MHO but my retirement from my job in "computers" ( I am extremely
tired of it ) depends on it.

Steve Puetz - Lets say I have $50,000 to invest.

In your opinion what would be the ideal portfolio?

Steve Puetz - Lets say I have $50,000 to invest.

In your opinion what would be the ideal portfolio?

Vronsky: I just spent twenty minutes searching all over your site and the Captains for that info. I knew I'd seen it somewhere! Thanks.

Earl: No, not that, anything but that ss thread! I bought more silver today, does that count as action taken on "2 Down/2 to go"? What happens to this latest surge if Tiger fund sells a million ounces of Platinum and the Russkies shake loose some dinero for their miners and crank up the production line? It seems to me that a roaring economy is the best bet for upward momentum in metals. "A rising tide lifts all boats."

Fundy: I hope the DOW goes to 15,000 because those index funds buy mining stocks too. However, if the DOW goes back to 1000, my store of value, gold and silver, will soar.

Earl -- I've been reading the postings for the past couple days without commenting on anything. Most is old news and old dicussions re-hashed. But your most recent posting really brings to mind what BT has been saying/alluding to. At least the way I read them. Given the scenarios currently transpiring in the P metals, the paper and 'loans' on the gold and silver, and given ALL the other pertinent stuff that gets posted here, I really would not be a BIT surprised at the BT scenario being fulfilled! It's a scenario brought on by paper, and it will end with the end of the paper markets. I might add that the paper curency might very well end with it, or at least, nearby in time with it.

Earl -- I've been reading the postings for the past couple days without commenting on anything. Most is old news and old dicussions re-hashed. But your most recent posting really brings to mind what BT has been saying/alluding to. At least the way I read them. Given the scenarios currently transpiring in the P metals, the paper and 'loans' on the gold and silver, and given ALL the other pertinent stuff that gets posted here, I really would not be a BIT surprised at the BT scenario being fulfilled! It's a scenario brought on by paper, and it will end with the end of the paper markets. I might add that the paper curency might very well end with it, or at least, nearby in time with it.

Vronsky: I just spent twenty minutes searching all over your site and the Captains for that info. I knew I'd seen it somewhere! Thanks.

Earl: No, not that, anything but that ss thread! I bought more silver today, does that count as action taken on "2 Down/2 to go"? What happens to this latest surge if Tiger fund sells a million ounces of Platinum and the Russkies shake loose some dinero for their miners and crank up the production line? It seems to me that a roaring economy is the best bet for upward momentum in metals. "A rising tide lifts all boats."

Fundy: I hope the DOW goes to 15,000 because those index funds buy mining stocks too. However, if the DOW goes back to 1000, my store of value, gold and silver, will soar.

An additional thought and then its off to the wife's house. .... We really are engaged in world that has evolved to point where millions of bright, exceptional people find there intellectual expression in the design of paper instruments whose only purpose is to separate the 'unwashed' and unsophisticated from their hard won resources.

They produce nothing of value to society or to the greater good of mankind. Indeed, while they are capable individuals, by choice they lack the requisite skills to do so. They cannot wield a shovel and find gold, nor can they program a computer. The only skill they possess is the finely honed ability to convince the rest of mankind that what they say and what they do is truly important. I think not.

An additional thought and then its off to the wife's house. .... We really are engaged in world that has evolved to point where millions of bright, exceptional people find there intellectual expression in the design of paper instruments whose only purpose is to separate the 'unwashed' and unsophisticated from their hard won resources.

They produce nothing of value to society or to the greater good of mankind. Indeed, while they are capable individuals, by choice they lack the requisite skills to do so. They cannot wield a shovel and find gold, nor can they program a computer. The only skill they possess is the finely honed ability to convince the rest of mankind that what they say and what they do is truly important. I think not.

Steve puetz -- Given a scenario of 8-1 vs 16-1, I'll take the 8-1. It'll be TWICE as good! But, regardless, in percentage terms, silver will beat gold hands down!!!!!!

Steve puetz -- Given a scenario of 8-1 vs 16-1, I'll take the 8-1. It'll be TWICE as good! But, regardless, in percentage terms, silver will beat gold hands down!!!!!!

Earl -- Amen to that about the paper hangers!

Earl -- Amen to that about the paper hangers!

The XAU Index poked its head over the 50 Days Moving Average Line. : )

The HUI Index ( American Gold Bugs Index ) did not cross the finish line. : (

The XAU Index poked its head over the 50 Days Moving Average Line. : )

The HUI Index ( American Gold Bugs Index ) did not cross the finish line. : (

Miro: Y2K will be a problem for some businesses ( probably govt. agencies .. Do I have to pay tax for the year 2000 since I didn't have any income in 1900 ) . Pretty good consulting gig for those having the skills and the interest in putting in some hours for some easy money ( a lot of helpless people/companies/govt. agencies out there ... )

Miro: Y2K will be a problem for some businesses ( probably govt. agencies .. Do I have to pay tax for the year 2000 since I didn't have any income in 1900 ) . Pretty good consulting gig for those having the skills and the interest in putting in some hours for some easy money ( a lot of helpless people/companies/govt. agencies out there ... )

Kid Silver -- Your name says it! Silver! Lots of it and as inexpensively as it can be had! Unless you need to travel very light, that's the way to go for leverage. You MIGHT want to add a few yellow artifacts to it if you feel the need to travel with 'cash' of substance. Make sure it's identifiable as to what it is, and that it is fairly easily negotiable in case the 'rainy day' come upon us! IMHO.

Kid Silver -- Your name says it! Silver! Lots of it and as inexpensively as it can be had! Unless you need to travel very light, that's the way to go for leverage. You MIGHT want to add a few yellow artifacts to it if you feel the need to travel with 'cash' of substance. Make sure it's identifiable as to what it is, and that it is fairly easily negotiable in case the 'rainy day' come upon us! IMHO.

Vronsky, chill. One advert in the morning and one in the evening is enough. WE ALL check your site on a regular basis anyway. AND EARL,,, I remember buying my way into the cinema, the "movies" as they were called in those days, with a silver quarter of a dollar. Eat a bag of popcorn I paid a silver dime for. BUT that was a couple years back now. I can't place anything between the dim of these distant memories, and the kitco-now we live in, where I settled, bartered, tendered, or otherwise made good a trade with precious. It is not the curant mode of exchange in cultures of the western world. NOT AT THE MOMENT.
But since things have a way of changing, surprise, surprise, who knows, the day of the dear darlings might yet flourish once again. In the mean time let us not taint the virtue of these sisters with an association to their baser cousin, that ba'dard of the parchment, the Guttenbergers evil spawn, PAPER TENDER. How then can value be attached to their beauty, their rarity, if not with CASH? How can their desirability be measured if not against the arbitration of the collective confidence, you may ask? How indeed. Commerce makes for such strange pillow fellows does it not?
The very foundation of the familiar, the pavement stones of our daily marketplace, the fact of a bank draft, they are all and each calculated in units of currency based on confidence. Your exchanges in every aspect of commercial intercourse with purveyors hawking there beyond the bookjack at your door, they are all settled in CASH. CASH is still king. It enjoys such esteem that even here, in a sanctuary beyond the psychology of the believing mob, it is used as a unit of measure for determining the "value" of the four sisters.
I find this lacking in clarity. Why condemn the master who allows us such cynicism? CASH is the ruler of this house of dreams and as much as I esteem the little darlings, that every dog has his day, and this too shall pass, that this CASH reality we live in provides the foundation to our relationship to the little darlings. Let us not pretend ottherwise. T'would be less a jest than we are all worthy of.
Mind you my kitco kin, the days of currency are numbered, but then so too, I hope, the percieved relativity between the four sisters and cousin CASH.
If WE cannot hold them to be sacred, how can we expect others to?
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// .
PS My only fear for '98 = colesterol and backwardation.
Enjoy.

Vronsky, chill. One advert in the morning and one in the evening is enough. WE ALL check your site on a regular basis anyway. AND EARL,,, I remember buying my way into the cinema, the "movies" as they were called in those days, with a silver quarter of a dollar. Eat a bag of popcorn I paid a silver dime for. BUT that was a couple years back now. I can't place anything between the dim of these distant memories, and the kitco-now we live in, where I settled, bartered, tendered, or otherwise made good a trade with precious. It is not the curant mode of exchange in cultures of the western world. NOT AT THE MOMENT.
But since things have a way of changing, surprise, surprise, who knows, the day of the dear darlings might yet flourish once again. In the mean time let us not taint the virtue of these sisters with an association to their baser cousin, that ba'dard of the parchment, the Guttenbergers evil spawn, PAPER TENDER. How then can value be attached to their beauty, their rarity, if not with CASH? How can their desirability be measured if not against the arbitration of the collective confidence, you may ask? How indeed. Commerce makes for such strange pillow fellows does it not?
The very foundation of the familiar, the pavement stones of our daily marketplace, the fact of a bank draft, they are all and each calculated in units of currency based on confidence. Your exchanges in every aspect of commercial intercourse with purveyors hawking there beyond the bookjack at your door, they are all settled in CASH. CASH is still king. It enjoys such esteem that even here, in a sanctuary beyond the psychology of the believing mob, it is used as a unit of measure for determining the "value" of the four sisters.
I find this lacking in clarity. Why condemn the master who allows us such cynicism? CASH is the ruler of this house of dreams and as much as I esteem the little darlings, that every dog has his day, and this too shall pass, that this CASH reality we live in provides the foundation to our relationship to the little darlings. Let us not pretend ottherwise. T'would be less a jest than we are all worthy of.
Mind you my kitco kin, the days of currency are numbered, but then so too, I hope, the percieved relativity between the four sisters and cousin CASH.
If WE cannot hold them to be sacred, how can we expect others to?
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// .
PS My only fear for '98 = colesterol and backwardation.
Enjoy.

Fundy - You seem to be enjoying the excellent view of an extremely 'high tide'. Have you ever thought about how different your outlook might become when the extreme 'low tide' sets in?
Auroelf - Granted we must all look at the many varied opinions we can gather from 'experts' around the world and then decide which is the 'grain' and which is the 'chaff'. It just seemed to me last night that you were being mesmerized by a spin doctor who specialises in dross. There will always be those who can make the masses believe that 'this time things are different' and that the Emperor is wearing a beautiful suit. The fact that the suit is made of invisible thread will eventually become apparent to all, even the deluded spin doctor himself.
Steve Puetz - You just may have a point there! More than likely that scenario will take about ten-fifteen years until completion, however, and until then I would be happy to see even 20-1 in the next lustrum! ( I can hear the mad scramble for the dictionary's right now! )
Arden- Right On Bro'! ( Also - Good Luck on the move! )
APH - Consistent and usually right!
Korondy - Where ya been?
George - We're waiting with you til the Fall!
bw - Good Read.
Earl - Those statistics are scary and deserve repeating! "Re: MSFT versus the big 3 autos: "Right now it would require 11
consecutive years of 20% earnings gains for Microsoft's P/E to
match that of these auto stocks. Comparing revenue, those 3 auto
companies sell $370 billion in product a year, or 35 times
Microsoft's $10.5 billion. Yet Microsoft stock is valued at more
than 1.4 times *all* three auto stocks *put together*."
Gene - Good try but a little too wild.
NotaGoldbug - Your opposing view is at least worth reading compared to some of the B.S. that we have seen.
Ted and Front - Stop trying to make everyone jealous with your 'Life of Reilly' stories! :- )

Fundy - You seem to be enjoying the excellent view of an extremely 'high tide'. Have you ever thought about how different your outlook might become when the extreme 'low tide' sets in?
Auroelf - Granted we must all look at the many varied opinions we can gather from 'experts' around the world and then decide which is the 'grain' and which is the 'chaff'. It just seemed to me last night that you were being mesmerized by a spin doctor who specialises in dross. There will always be those who can make the masses believe that 'this time things are different' and that the Emperor is wearing a beautiful suit. The fact that the suit is made of invisible thread will eventually become apparent to all, even the deluded spin doctor himself.
Steve Puetz - You just may have a point there! More than likely that scenario will take about ten-fifteen years until completion, however, and until then I would be happy to see even 20-1 in the next lustrum! ( I can hear the mad scramble for the dictionary's right now! )
Arden- Right On Bro'! ( Also - Good Luck on the move! )
APH - Consistent and usually right!
Korondy - Where ya been?
George - We're waiting with you til the Fall!
bw - Good Read.
Earl - Those statistics are scary and deserve repeating! "Re: MSFT versus the big 3 autos: "Right now it would require 11
consecutive years of 20% earnings gains for Microsoft's P/E to
match that of these auto stocks. Comparing revenue, those 3 auto
companies sell $370 billion in product a year, or 35 times
Microsoft's $10.5 billion. Yet Microsoft stock is valued at more
than 1.4 times *all* three auto stocks *put together*."
Gene - Good try but a little too wild.
NotaGoldbug - Your opposing view is at least worth reading compared to some of the B.S. that we have seen.
Ted and Front - Stop trying to make everyone jealous with your 'Life of Reilly' stories! :- )

Eldon't: Get a life and buy some paper! Hi to Earlie

Eldon't: Get a life and buy some paper! Hi to Earlie

Kid Silver: Here's a good mix:
$30,000 in silver coins ( purchase for silver content only )
$18,000 in gold coins ( purchase for gold content only )
$2,000 in December 1997 S&P 700 put options
-------
$50,000 total

Kid Silver: Here's a good mix:
$30,000 in silver coins ( purchase for silver content only )
$18,000 in gold coins ( purchase for gold content only )
$2,000 in December 1997 S&P 700 put options
-------
$50,000 total

Earl -- DO NOT bring back that SS thread! It is like a vampire with a wooden stake driven through its heart. Do Not Remove The Wooden Stake!

In regards to the PA/PL 'paper' problem; I'm glad to see others are giving it quiet thought. It does have profound implications for ALL paper assets. The PA/PL fiasco will be an interesting 'test drive' for paper credibility. The extension of settlement times from two days to thirty? Do they really think the Russians will cough up the metal, just because some shorts need it? Somebody has someone by the short *****, and they haven't let go yet.

An even more obtuse concern would be this; Where would this leave the enviromental groups? Screaming about pollution, no doubt, along with calls for more government action. That could lead to some interesting possibilities. Whither the catalytic converter and oil companies, not to mention the chemical companies. Hmmmm, this thing could have legs.

Earl -- DO NOT bring back that SS thread! It is like a vampire with a wooden stake driven through its heart. Do Not Remove The Wooden Stake!

In regards to the PA/PL 'paper' problem; I'm glad to see others are giving it quiet thought. It does have profound implications for ALL paper assets. The PA/PL fiasco will be an interesting 'test drive' for paper credibility. The extension of settlement times from two days to thirty? Do they really think the Russians will cough up the metal, just because some shorts need it? Somebody has someone by the short *****, and they haven't let go yet.

An even more obtuse concern would be this; Where would this leave the enviromental groups? Screaming about pollution, no doubt, along with calls for more government action. That could lead to some interesting possibilities. Whither the catalytic converter and oil companies, not to mention the chemical companies. Hmmmm, this thing could have legs.

Miro: I find it interesting that costs associated with fixing Y2K must be expensed out immediately. I understand these costs will be tremendous.

Miro: I find it interesting that costs associated with fixing Y2K must be expensed out immediately. I understand these costs will be tremendous.

Mooney: Will do!...Novice:I'll be gettin back at you as I've been busy even though Mooney thinks I live the life of Reilly....what does Mooney know anyhow???...

Mooney: Will do!...Novice:I'll be gettin back at you as I've been busy even though Mooney thinks I live the life of Reilly....what does Mooney know anyhow???...

Good night all, perhaps tomorrow will show the real direction of the yellow metal?

George S. Cole -- Agreed that the volume on the mining shares was pretty pathetic today. Most shares seem to be at a half to a quarter of their 'normal' daily volume of a year+ ago. TVX used to trade 1 million shares a day on average.

Good night all, perhaps tomorrow will show the real direction of the yellow metal?

George S. Cole -- Agreed that the volume on the mining shares was pretty pathetic today. Most shares seem to be at a half to a quarter of their 'normal' daily volume of a year+ ago. TVX used to trade 1 million shares a day on average.

Steve P. ( or anyone else ) : Where could one visiting Canada buy some Silver Maple Leafs. I believe I read ( I could be wrong ) they can purchased in certain banks??

Steve P. ( or anyone else ) : Where could one visiting Canada buy some Silver Maple Leafs. I believe I read ( I could be wrong ) they can purchased in certain banks??

Didn't Arch ( ie ) Crawford predict tomorrow as a watch day ( positive ) for gold?

Didn't Arch ( ie ) Crawford predict tomorrow as a watch day ( positive ) for gold?

Steve Puetz- am reading your flier for your book that I received today in the mail. How do you feel about genuinely rare, high grade coins as to how they will fare under your scenario. An example would be low population high grade Morgan dollars. Thanks in advance

Steve Puetz- am reading your flier for your book that I received today in the mail. How do you feel about genuinely rare, high grade coins as to how they will fare under your scenario. An example would be low population high grade Morgan dollars. Thanks in advance

Paper Hanger -- I DO buy paper! Books, magazines, printer paper, newspapers, napkins, paper towels and toilet tissue. Is there something ELSE?

The following may raise a few hairs. I welcome discourse.

First, lets ask the most basic. What good is gold? You cant live in it. You cant drive it. You cant eat it. What good is it? The answer is obvious to all; gold is valuable because people think it is. Gold is the IDEA of wealth and, as such, its perceived value varies widely with economic conditions.

Many like to talk about the historical power of gold to hold its value. This leaves me a bit befuddled. For centuries gold was the same price, its value did not change. Inflation was nonexistent so the value of other commodities was also very stable. Inflation is essentially a twentieth century phenomenon, and there have been times throughout this century when gold appeared to be a hedge against rising costs, although this appearance is deceptive.

There are two aspects of gold we should remember. First, it can be found in almost any spot on earth, its not that rare. Second, it is mined for accumulation. An entire mountain of gold resides in bank vaults throughout the world, therefore, gold is becoming less rare with each passing day. If worldwide gold production stopped today, we would have enough gold for industrial uses to last 30 years - and yes, I am including jewelry in industrial usage. Contrast this with PGMs - approximately 2 years and found in basically two places on earth, and silver - approximately 4 - 5 years supply.

Now, lets call a spade a spade. Viewed in inflation adjusted dollars, any gold purchased in the last 18 years is now worth less than what you paid for it. This is undeniable. Not only has it failed to keep ahead of inflation but in inflation adjusted dollars, we are near historic lows. There are many who still cling to the belief that their gold is giving them protection from inflation and, like people who believe OJ is innocent, please dont confuse them with the facts, theyve made up their minds. By definition, a commodity can never be an inflation hedge. The price of any commodity may rise during times of inflation but inevitably the price falls to previous levels, while the currency it represents stays inflated.

There are those who will cry, "Unfair! Why, in 1900 you could buy a suit for an ounce of gold, and today you can still buy a suit for that same ounce!" Anyone that cant see the inherent flaw in that argument, bought the vest and got the sleeves for free. The problem with these apocryphal little ditties is that they are a shortcut to actually thinking.

Lets transport ourselves to 1980 and ask the question that begs to be asked: Would you rather have I ounce of gold or $463? I am using the low that year to be kind as higher numbers only make the picture worse. On a dollar for dollar basis, at $344 gold today, the answer is obvious, take the cash. Unfair you say? $463 too high? OK lets take the average low for gold from 1977 forward, $327. The answer is still obvious. That once ounce of gold is still barely worth less today than at almost anytime in the last two decades. When we then take the necessary step of adjusting these dollars for inflation ( assuming 4% annually, which we all know is substantially lower than actual inflation over the last 20 years. ) , the results are staggering. The dollars you paid for that gold are worth less than half of what they were worth in 1980. In real dollars your $327 is now worth $137! So in order to just break even, you would have had to buy your gold prior to 1978 at the low and held it until now. Thats not an investment, thats a sieve. Thats not protection, thats robbery.

The modern gold market can really only be traced to 1974 when once again, private citizens could own gold. After a few years to shake things out, and occasion rises, the price of gold has settled at its current levels, slightly lower than its modern average. As I stated previously, the average low in gold in the last 20 years was $327 ( with an absolute low of $127 ) , the average high was $439 ( absolute high $825 midday, but who sold at that price? ) , with an average price of $383. These averages include the manic highs of 1979 - 1980. If we threw those numbers out the window, the picture is even worse. Remember, the dollars have been inflated forever.

Another expected argument: "Yes, but all commodities rise and then fall." This is true, but I do not advocate the buying and holding of any commodity, as many do with gold. The key is to ride the rises and take the profits. What is the purpose of holding?

To debunk another popular reason touted for gold ownership, "When the economic collapse finally comes, Ill be able to trade my gold for a loaf of bread". I dont know if this is just naive or anyone actually believes, that in times of crisis, gold will buy food. If times are that bad, the only thing that will get bread is bullets. Would anyone trade their familys food for gold? For that matter, would anyone trade their gun for gold?. For those of you still searching for an answer, please refer to the beginning of this essay.

Lacking an apocalyptic meltdown of worldwide monetary systems, gold will continue its dismal performance. In times of true crisis, however, Id rather have a bushel of corn or a few potatoes.

True, there have been periods when gold has proven profitable, but certainly no more than any other commodity. Lets look at gold for what it truly is, its pretty, its shiny, and its occasionally profitable.


RJD
June 1997

The following may raise a few hairs. I welcome discourse.

First, lets ask the most basic. What good is gold? You cant live in it. You cant drive it. You cant eat it. What good is it? The answer is obvious to all; gold is valuable because people think it is. Gold is the IDEA of wealth and, as such, its perceived value varies widely with economic conditions.

Many like to talk about the historical power of gold to hold its value. This leaves me a bit befuddled. For centuries gold was the same price, its value did not change. Inflation was nonexistent so the value of other commodities was also very stable. Inflation is essentially a twentieth century phenomenon, and there have been times throughout this century when gold appeared to be a hedge against rising costs, although this appearance is deceptive.

There are two aspects of gold we should remember. First, it can be found in almost any spot on earth, its not that rare. Second, it is mined for accumulation. An entire mountain of gold resides in bank vaults throughout the world, therefore, gold is becoming less rare with each passing day. If worldwide gold production stopped today, we would have enough gold for industrial uses to last 30 years - and yes, I am including jewelry in industrial usage. Contrast this with PGMs - approximately 2 years and found in basically two places on earth, and silver - approximately 4 - 5 years supply.

Now, lets call a spade a spade. Viewed in inflation adjusted dollars, any gold purchased in the last 18 years is now worth less than what you paid for it. This is undeniable. Not only has it failed to keep ahead of inflation but in inflation adjusted dollars, we are near historic lows. There are many who still cling to the belief that their gold is giving them protection from inflation and, like people who believe OJ is innocent, please dont confuse them with the facts, theyve made up their minds. By definition, a commodity can never be an inflation hedge. The price of any commodity may rise during times of inflation but inevitably the price falls to previous levels, while the currency it represents stays inflated.

There are those who will cry, "Unfair! Why, in 1900 you could buy a suit for an ounce of gold, and today you can still buy a suit for that same ounce!" Anyone that cant see the inherent flaw in that argument, bought the vest and got the sleeves for free. The problem with these apocryphal little ditties is that they are a shortcut to actually thinking.

Lets transport ourselves to 1980 and ask the question that begs to be asked: Would you rather have I ounce of gold or $463? I am using the low that year to be kind as higher numbers only make the picture worse. On a dollar for dollar basis, at $344 gold today, the answer is obvious, take the cash. Unfair you say? $463 too high? OK lets take the average low for gold from 1977 forward, $327. The answer is still obvious. That once ounce of gold is still barely worth less today than at almost anytime in the last two decades. When we then take the necessary step of adjusting these dollars for inflation ( assuming 4% annually, which we all know is substantially lower than actual inflation over the last 20 years. ) , the results are staggering. The dollars you paid for that gold are worth less than half of what they were worth in 1980. In real dollars your $327 is now worth $137! So in order to just break even, you would have had to buy your gold prior to 1978 at the low and held it until now. Thats not an investment, thats a sieve. Thats not protection, thats robbery.

The modern gold market can really only be traced to 1974 when once again, private citizens could own gold. After a few years to shake things out, and occasion rises, the price of gold has settled at its current levels, slightly lower than its modern average. As I stated previously, the average low in gold in the last 20 years was $327 ( with an absolute low of $127 ) , the average high was $439 ( absolute high $825 midday, but who sold at that price? ) , with an average price of $383. These averages include the manic highs of 1979 - 1980. If we threw those numbers out the window, the picture is even worse. Remember, the dollars have been inflated forever.

Another expected argument: "Yes, but all commodities rise and then fall." This is true, but I do not advocate the buying and holding of any commodity, as many do with gold. The key is to ride the rises and take the profits. What is the purpose of holding?

To debunk another popular reason touted for gold ownership, "When the economic collapse finally comes, Ill be able to trade my gold for a loaf of bread". I dont know if this is just naive or anyone actually believes, that in times of crisis, gold will buy food. If times are that bad, the only thing that will get bread is bullets. Would anyone trade their familys food for gold? For that matter, would anyone trade their gun for gold?. For those of you still searching for an answer, please refer to the beginning of this essay.

Lacking an apocalyptic meltdown of worldwide monetary systems, gold will continue its dismal performance. In times of true crisis, however, Id rather have a bushel of corn or a few potatoes.

True, there have been periods when gold has proven profitable, but certainly no more than any other commodity. Lets look at gold for what it truly is, its pretty, its shiny, and its occasionally profitable.


RJD
June 1997

Paper Hanger -- I DO buy paper! Books, magazines, printer paper, newspapers, napkins, paper towels and toilet tissue. Is there something ELSE?

Eldorado - I started to respond to your question regarding gold's outlook for 1997. I got sidetracked with the below perspective. I'll get to what's ahead for this year sometime this week. Thanks for your patience.

Eldorado - I started to respond to your question regarding gold's outlook for 1997. I got sidetracked with the below perspective. I'll get to what's ahead for this year sometime this week. Thanks for your patience.

Bob M.: I assume the flier you got was from Newsletter Systems, Inc.
What is the phone number it is showing to call to order "Total Collapse"? Some people have been having trouble getting a connection.
Buy gold coins for their monetary content only. Don't buy collectibles.

Bob M.: I assume the flier you got was from Newsletter Systems, Inc.
What is the phone number it is showing to call to order "Total Collapse"? Some people have been having trouble getting a connection.
Buy gold coins for their monetary content only. Don't buy collectibles.

Steve Puetz: What, no dry powder??

Y2K I too work in computergeekland. Yes Y2k will be a problem for almost all large financial institutions and gov depts. It may well have an additive effect with MILLENIAL FEVER on crowd perception of stability of these institutions. This will ultimately be good for goldbugs.

"What if I can't trust my bank statement/insurance/tax record/whatever??"

Ain't this rather like a scriptural armageddon? Doubt and uncertainty?

Who can ye trust? ( ingotwetrust )

Millenial fear and fever ought not be underestimated either. We do not have to wait until Y2K to start to see the effects of this. To those with eyes to see the effects are already visible.

If you can keep your head when all about are losing theirs
And blaming it on you......


( Rudy Kipling )

Steve Puetz: What, no dry powder??

Y2K I too work in computergeekland. Yes Y2k will be a problem for almost all large financial institutions and gov depts. It may well have an additive effect with MILLENIAL FEVER on crowd perception of stability of these institutions. This will ultimately be good for goldbugs.

"What if I can't trust my bank statement/insurance/tax record/whatever??"

Ain't this rather like a scriptural armageddon? Doubt and uncertainty?

Who can ye trust? ( ingotwetrust )

Millenial fear and fever ought not be underestimated either. We do not have to wait until Y2K to start to see the effects of this. To those with eyes to see the effects are already visible.

If you can keep your head when all about are losing theirs
And blaming it on you......


( Rudy Kipling )

RJ- you are absolutely correct in your analysis, gold has been the worst possible investment over the last 17 years, no denying that. The demand side of the equation has not been there, and that is what a commodity needs to drive it up. Gold is driven by fear, fear of financial collapse. As long as that does not happen, I see gold trading very narrowly. A move like the late 70s is probably only likely if the financial markets tank, coupled with a threat of a major war, and commodity supply lines threatened. Enjoyed your writing!

RJ- you are absolutely correct in your analysis, gold has been the worst possible investment over the last 17 years, no denying that. The demand side of the equation has not been there, and that is what a commodity needs to drive it up. Gold is driven by fear, fear of financial collapse. As long as that does not happen, I see gold trading very narrowly. A move like the late 70s is probably only likely if the financial markets tank, coupled with a threat of a major war, and commodity supply lines threatened. Enjoyed your writing!

Steve Puetz- the phone # they give is 888-639-7587... I try to buy coins that have a fundamental reason to rise in value because they are genuinely rare coins. My thuinking is that under your scenario, everything will go down, nothing will be exempt. But items that are scarce now, will always be scarce, so in relative terms, the intrinsic value will be similar. Just like the Mona Lisa, in the depression its relative value did not drop as the rarity kept the value constant.

Steve Puetz- the phone # they give is 888-639-7587... I try to buy coins that have a fundamental reason to rise in value because they are genuinely rare coins. My thuinking is that under your scenario, everything will go down, nothing will be exempt. But items that are scarce now, will always be scarce, so in relative terms, the intrinsic value will be similar. Just like the Mona Lisa, in the depression its relative value did not drop as the rarity kept the value constant.

RJ: You are wrong on may counts. 1st -- Inflation isn't just a 20th century phenomena. The first great paper inflation occurred in China about 1000 years ago, and it ended with a massive economic collapse. 2nd- Gold is a "store-of-value." 3rd -- It can be sub-divided. 4th -- It does not rot. 5th -- It does not burn. 6th -- It does not depend on someone else's monetary promise. That is, gold has many qualities that other commodities and other monies do not posess. In an era of increasing defaults ( world-wide ) , the monetary safety of gold seems, not only preferable, but most prudent.

RJ: You are wrong on may counts. 1st -- Inflation isn't just a 20th century phenomena. The first great paper inflation occurred in China about 1000 years ago, and it ended with a massive economic collapse. 2nd- Gold is a "store-of-value." 3rd -- It can be sub-divided. 4th -- It does not rot. 5th -- It does not burn. 6th -- It does not depend on someone else's monetary promise. That is, gold has many qualities that other commodities and other monies do not posess. In an era of increasing defaults ( world-wide ) , the monetary safety of gold seems, not only preferable, but most prudent.

Hello Folks, I don't post here often but did at the bottom of the platinum market late last year to prompt you to my PGE report.

You may want to have a look at Phoenix Gold, PHO on Vancouver, a hidden
gem that could soar in this platinum market. I am also now picking nickel to rise significantly. The strike at Inco will be a long one. Bet on it. A few more ounzes of platinum production will be gone as well.

I have been very successful at picking market bottoms in mining stocks
and metals. Maybe I'm just lucky, perhaps you want to follow my luck? Last year, I stated, that the Sumitomo affair has caused a bottom in copper and it would rebound. My two junior copper picks soared, Western Copper from $1.15 to $4.05 and Corner Bay $0.70 to $1.32.

In November 1996 I wrote a special report on platinum that it was at a
bottom and the time to buy is now. This is a piece from my report on a few things mentioned about Russia

"Russia is in shambles and the mining industry is half of what it used to
be. Miners are working months without getting paid. Equipment is outdated
and in need of repair. A huge bureaucracy, political fighting and organized crime all add to the problem.................... Most likely Russia is almost out of platinum, just as they are gold. It could be this year or perhaps next that Russian sales will likely fall off. This alone could cause platinum to explode upwards."

With platinum soaring needless to say our platinum plays heve done very
well except one unknown yet, Phoenix Gold, PHO on Vancouver. I think this
could soon change because PHO has an excellent platinum property and I just talked to them on June 7th and they will begin drilling in about 10 days. I originally thought PHO would get on the property last year but they didn't raise the $$ in time. As it turns out it looks like this was a blessing considering todays hot platinum market

The property was held private since Newmont was forced to give it up in
the 1980s despite excellent drill results ( I bet they wish they had it now ) .The property was just moved into PHO in 1996. If platinum is still up or higher as I expect when PHO releases platinum drill results this stock could soar. It is just trading around $0.40 ( little downside risk ) and has a nice silver property among others. You can view my platinum report and more about
PHO at my website http://www.sentex.net/~resource

Call Dick Lonsdale at PHO 604-689-9960 Fax 604-684-3499

Good luck to all and don't forget to get a position in the nickel market


Hello Folks, I don't post here often but did at the bottom of the platinum market late last year to prompt you to my PGE report.

You may want to have a look at Phoenix Gold, PHO on Vancouver, a hidden
gem that could soar in this platinum market. I am also now picking nickel to rise significantly. The strike at Inco will be a long one. Bet on it. A few more ounzes of platinum production will be gone as well.

I have been very successful at picking market bottoms in mining stocks
and metals. Maybe I'm just lucky, perhaps you want to follow my luck? Last year, I stated, that the Sumitomo affair has caused a bottom in copper and it would rebound. My two junior copper picks soared, Western Copper from $1.15 to $4.05 and Corner Bay $0.70 to $1.32.

In November 1996 I wrote a special report on platinum that it was at a
bottom and the time to buy is now. This is a piece from my report on a few things mentioned about Russia

"Russia is in shambles and the mining industry is half of what it used to
be. Miners are working months without getting paid. Equipment is outdated
and in need of repair. A huge bureaucracy, political fighting and organized crime all add to the problem.................... Most likely Russia is almost out of platinum, just as they are gold. It could be this year or perhaps next that Russian sales will likely fall off. This alone could cause platinum to explode upwards."

With platinum soaring needless to say our platinum plays heve done very
well except one unknown yet, Phoenix Gold, PHO on Vancouver. I think this
could soon change because PHO has an excellent platinum property and I just talked to them on June 7th and they will begin drilling in about 10 days. I originally thought PHO would get on the property last year but they didn't raise the $$ in time. As it turns out it looks like this was a blessing considering todays hot platinum market

The property was held private since Newmont was forced to give it up in
the 1980s despite excellent drill results ( I bet they wish they had it now ) .The property was just moved into PHO in 1996. If platinum is still up or higher as I expect when PHO releases platinum drill results this stock could soar. It is just trading around $0.40 ( little downside risk ) and has a nice silver property among others. You can view my platinum report and more about
PHO at my website http://www.sentex.net/~resource

Call Dick Lonsdale at PHO 604-689-9960 Fax 604-684-3499

Good luck to all and don't forget to get a position in the nickel market


I wish to declare that July 1st will become
National Buy an Ounce of Gold Day.

I wish to declare that July 1st will become
National Buy an Ounce of Gold Day.