Worthwhile article in this week's Barron's, page 22.
Sidestepping a Bre-X may save a life or two. Not to mention
a shirt.

Worthwhile article in this week's Barron's, page 22.
Sidestepping a Bre-X may save a life or two. Not to mention
a shirt.

Auric: Perhaps it's a misunderstanding ( on my part ) of their respective positions. BUt the sense I have of the matter is this: RJ believes gold is going down. For many reasons, previously stated. Ted, believes the same unless underlying forces, which he has identified, are mitigated. ... I'm an agnostic but I'll tell neither one that. ...... ( :- ) )

Auric: Perhaps it's a misunderstanding ( on my part ) of their respective positions. BUt the sense I have of the matter is this: RJ believes gold is going down. For many reasons, previously stated. Ted, believes the same unless underlying forces, which he has identified, are mitigated. ... I'm an agnostic but I'll tell neither one that. ...... ( :- ) )

Arden - I, unlike many others here, have very little emotional investment in gold. Free of this reason clouding attachment, my assessment golds merits and shortfalls rests in facts not supposition. By no means am I trying to say that your arguments are biased in this way, but some that I have read are. Let me answer your main points:

Distribution of gold reserves; name a continent in which gold cannot be found? Regarding the central banks, they have a very real interest in the price of gold; precisely never too far above $400. As for the banks trying to convince us that gold has no value, since when? Central banks are the largest holders of gold on earth, and as such have a more vested interest in gold than any other can claim. Since when do CBs want gold to be worthless? Their goal is a stable price of gold, as this gives the appearance of stable currency. Note I said "appearance, I do understand the game. Why else would one CB or another step in and cap off any significant rally over $400. Last time it was Belgium with over 200 metric tons.

To answer all offers of proof as to golds value in times of crisis or for refugees. I agree completely This agreement carries the proviso that there must be a place for one to go where gold is valued above the goods and commodities it may be traded for. Were I a third world citizen, all my wealth would be in gold, but the global collapse that some here envision will make all men equal. I say again, if the western world falls, the entire world falls. I for one do not believe in the decline of the western world, which I will discuss in depth later, so please dont blast me with the arguments now until you read what I have to say.

The main focus of my argument is that gold, as an investment vehicle, store of wealth, and preserver of value, has performed dismally in the last 20 years. Let me turn the numbers around. Average price of gold for the last 20 years: $327. Purchasing power of $327 ( 1977 dollars adjusted at 4% per anum ) : $716. Where did the other $389 go? This seems like a very expensive store of wealth. I again ask anyone to refute the numbers. Is my calculator part of the Alan G & the CBs conspiracy? More likely, it is a sleeper in the Japanese takeover, it is a Casio after all.

Arden - I, unlike many others here, have very little emotional investment in gold. Free of this reason clouding attachment, my assessment golds merits and shortfalls rests in facts not supposition. By no means am I trying to say that your arguments are biased in this way, but some that I have read are. Let me answer your main points:

Distribution of gold reserves; name a continent in which gold cannot be found? Regarding the central banks, they have a very real interest in the price of gold; precisely never too far above $400. As for the banks trying to convince us that gold has no value, since when? Central banks are the largest holders of gold on earth, and as such have a more vested interest in gold than any other can claim. Since when do CBs want gold to be worthless? Their goal is a stable price of gold, as this gives the appearance of stable currency. Note I said "appearance, I do understand the game. Why else would one CB or another step in and cap off any significant rally over $400. Last time it was Belgium with over 200 metric tons.

To answer all offers of proof as to golds value in times of crisis or for refugees. I agree completely This agreement carries the proviso that there must be a place for one to go where gold is valued above the goods and commodities it may be traded for. Were I a third world citizen, all my wealth would be in gold, but the global collapse that some here envision will make all men equal. I say again, if the western world falls, the entire world falls. I for one do not believe in the decline of the western world, which I will discuss in depth later, so please dont blast me with the arguments now until you read what I have to say.

The main focus of my argument is that gold, as an investment vehicle, store of wealth, and preserver of value, has performed dismally in the last 20 years. Let me turn the numbers around. Average price of gold for the last 20 years: $327. Purchasing power of $327 ( 1977 dollars adjusted at 4% per anum ) : $716. Where did the other $389 go? This seems like a very expensive store of wealth. I again ask anyone to refute the numbers. Is my calculator part of the Alan G & the CBs conspiracy? More likely, it is a sleeper in the Japanese takeover, it is a Casio after all.

Earl @ 00:05-My understanding of Ted Butler's
argument is this: There is a huge paper surplus in
gold which must be addressed. It means that it's
going to create a massive imbalance between physical
gold availability and paper demand. The result is
that valuation in terms of paper- be it Dollars,
EMU's Yen, etc.,- will rise.

Earl @ 00:05-My understanding of Ted Butler's
argument is this: There is a huge paper surplus in
gold which must be addressed. It means that it's
going to create a massive imbalance between physical
gold availability and paper demand. The result is
that valuation in terms of paper- be it Dollars,
EMU's Yen, etc.,- will rise.

Watch London. Uplink terminated.

Watch London. Uplink terminated.

RJ: Is that you VRONSKY? hmmmm

RJ: Is that you VRONSKY? hmmmm

Vieserre: In scholarly fashion, I think you have narrowly framed the substance of your argument to address the concerns of lessor and lessee, at the expense of the more important element, which is the market itself.

If 'A' sells a naked short to 'B' who in turn is committed to lease to 'C', is this not a distortion of the normal commercial event? That is, a visible transaction has taken place but no physical has changed hands. As long as the level of such activity remains within the limits of product availability in the cash market ( assuming stable supply/demand ) , 'A' should be able to cover his short without disruption. The price mechanism would still function via the cash market.

If on the other hand, naked speculation rises beyond a prudent level and cash supplies are found thin at such a time that demand is increased or supply suddenly disrupted ( ie, PA from Russia ) , the imprudent speculation will have to be considered as causative agent in market dislocation. For if rampant speculation had not taken place, price would have been better able to more smoothly reflect actual market conditions and balance the equation. Which is where PA/PL are currently.

Vieserre: In scholarly fashion, I think you have narrowly framed the substance of your argument to address the concerns of lessor and lessee, at the expense of the more important element, which is the market itself.

If 'A' sells a naked short to 'B' who in turn is committed to lease to 'C', is this not a distortion of the normal commercial event? That is, a visible transaction has taken place but no physical has changed hands. As long as the level of such activity remains within the limits of product availability in the cash market ( assuming stable supply/demand ) , 'A' should be able to cover his short without disruption. The price mechanism would still function via the cash market.

If on the other hand, naked speculation rises beyond a prudent level and cash supplies are found thin at such a time that demand is increased or supply suddenly disrupted ( ie, PA from Russia ) , the imprudent speculation will have to be considered as causative agent in market dislocation. For if rampant speculation had not taken place, price would have been better able to more smoothly reflect actual market conditions and balance the equation. Which is where PA/PL are currently.

Arden @23:12: While we dance with a whirlwind, you draw a sword and cut to the quick!

Arden @23:12: While we dance with a whirlwind, you draw a sword and cut to the quick!

Earl @ 00:38-Spot on! ( If you will excuse a
metaphor ) . The same paper imbalances present in the
Platinum and Palladium markets are lurking in Gold
and Silver as well.

Earl @ 00:38-Spot on! ( If you will excuse a
metaphor ) . The same paper imbalances present in the
Platinum and Palladium markets are lurking in Gold
and Silver as well.

Me thinks there are many ruffled feathers here. Does anyone think I didnt know the group I was addressing? It is precisely that you are who you are, that I came here to say what I have said. I offer my arguments with respect for the receiver. Once again, for those who have not read some of my priors; I own gold. I also own platinum and silver. I make my living in these markets. I am well protected. Do not ascribe to me that which you do not know nor have I told.

Slick - my apology was obviously not accepted. Do I note real hostility there? Pardon me if Ive heard the wheelbarrow-o-cash for a loaf of bread just once more that the ounce-o-gold for a suit story. I would appreciate new arguments. I think anyone familiar with these markets has heard those same arguments time and time again. Is there nothing more you can offer? I admit my response was overblown, but let me pose a question to all: Is there not great discussion here of puts and calls and contracts and mining stocks? Are all proceeds of these used to buy metals? Is none traded for the needs of the day? Do none of you have jobs? If we are to have a proper discourse, it is time that some of you get down off the soapbox and speak face to face When those who profess to loath paper stop their paper pursuits, then they might occupy a slightly higher moral ground. Please, no more postings of how I do not understand. I understand all too well and have thought these issues with great care. I must say again, platitudes and anecdotes are shortcuts to actually having to think! Next time one pops in your head ( the nonspecific collective head so as not to offend anyone in particular ) , ask yourself the next question it raises. If you do not, Shirley I will. I know, dont call you surely

Me thinks there are many ruffled feathers here. Does anyone think I didnt know the group I was addressing? It is precisely that you are who you are, that I came here to say what I have said. I offer my arguments with respect for the receiver. Once again, for those who have not read some of my priors; I own gold. I also own platinum and silver. I make my living in these markets. I am well protected. Do not ascribe to me that which you do not know nor have I told.

Slick - my apology was obviously not accepted. Do I note real hostility there? Pardon me if Ive heard the wheelbarrow-o-cash for a loaf of bread just once more that the ounce-o-gold for a suit story. I would appreciate new arguments. I think anyone familiar with these markets has heard those same arguments time and time again. Is there nothing more you can offer? I admit my response was overblown, but let me pose a question to all: Is there not great discussion here of puts and calls and contracts and mining stocks? Are all proceeds of these used to buy metals? Is none traded for the needs of the day? Do none of you have jobs? If we are to have a proper discourse, it is time that some of you get down off the soapbox and speak face to face When those who profess to loath paper stop their paper pursuits, then they might occupy a slightly higher moral ground. Please, no more postings of how I do not understand. I understand all too well and have thought these issues with great care. I must say again, platitudes and anecdotes are shortcuts to actually having to think! Next time one pops in your head ( the nonspecific collective head so as not to offend anyone in particular ) , ask yourself the next question it raises. If you do not, Shirley I will. I know, dont call you surely

Hi. There is no shortage of me. I can be bought.
As much as you want. Ahhh but the price. That is
the question, lad.

Hi. There is no shortage of me. I can be bought.
As much as you want. Ahhh but the price. That is
the question, lad.

does anyone else expect SI7N to test 468.8 tomorrow before heading up?

does anyone else expect SI7N to test 468.8 tomorrow before heading up?

RJ: One ounce of Gold to an agreed upon charity says
Gold gets to $500 between now and !2-31-99. You on?

RJ: One ounce of Gold to an agreed upon charity says
Gold gets to $500 between now and !2-31-99. You on?

RJ: ( 01:01 ) I agree, some of those stories even turn a
gold believer off. Especially the one about all the gold
ever mined fitting into a cube of A' x B' x C'. You
should read Pedro's ( ?? of 6/10 ) for good info. Actually
my own feeling is that with credit, credit cards and the
share markets etc________etc,they are trying to stuff one
tonne of bullshit in a five pound bag. BOOM, Think about
it.

RJ: ( 01:01 ) I agree, some of those stories even turn a
gold believer off. Especially the one about all the gold
ever mined fitting into a cube of A' x B' x C'. You
should read Pedro's ( ?? of 6/10 ) for good info. Actually
my own feeling is that with credit, credit cards and the
share markets etc________etc,they are trying to stuff one
tonne of bullshit in a five pound bag. BOOM, Think about
it.

Auric: We're in basic agreement, you and me.

Auric: We're in basic agreement, you and me.

Auric: ( 01:30 ) According to Pomboy Capital Corp's,

"OPEN LETTER TO CENTRAL BANKERS, GOLD MINING COMPANIES
AND GOLD INVESTORS:

As published on page 23 of the FINANCIAL TIMES of 6/9/97
gold should be around $500 now.

They are not goldbugs.

Auric: ( 01:30 ) According to Pomboy Capital Corp's,

"OPEN LETTER TO CENTRAL BANKERS, GOLD MINING COMPANIES
AND GOLD INVESTORS:

As published on page 23 of the FINANCIAL TIMES of 6/9/97
gold should be around $500 now.

They are not goldbugs.

We are having a lot of fun with this stuff. Reaction is great.

http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html

We are having a lot of fun with this stuff. Reaction is great.

http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html

Any Shining Times Station fans out there? There is
SOMETHING about this Kitco place!

Any Shining Times Station fans out there? There is
SOMETHING about this Kitco place!

Earl-Agreed. It's been like watching paint dry,
this market, eh?

Earl-Agreed. It's been like watching paint dry,
this market, eh?

Arctic Spirit: What's the verdict, on the coins, the salt
shakers?

Arctic Spirit: What's the verdict, on the coins, the salt
shakers?

Squinch: I see the support you are talking about. I don't know have any
idea if we'll bounce off it or not.

FYI - In Japan today - PA's out months closed up today, while the june
contract closed down. This is the first day I can remember where that's
happened in the last three months. Maybe the market is starting to see
the light and the light isn't shinning on $150 palladium!

Squinch: I see the support you are talking about. I don't know have any
idea if we'll bounce off it or not.

FYI - In Japan today - PA's out months closed up today, while the june
contract closed down. This is the first day I can remember where that's
happened in the last three months. Maybe the market is starting to see
the light and the light isn't shinning on $150 palladium!

HOWDY! THIS A MEMBERS ONLY DEAL OR CAN ANYBODY POST?
SORRY IF I SHOUT BUT THATS LIFE IN THE TRADING PITS!
BESIDES, IF I'M TOO LOUD, TURN DOWN YOUR HEARING
AID! I THINK I'LL TRY MY HAND AT THIS GOLD THINGY!

HOWDY! THIS A MEMBERS ONLY DEAL OR CAN ANYBODY POST?
SORRY IF I SHOUT BUT THATS LIFE IN THE TRADING PITS!
BESIDES, IF I'M TOO LOUD, TURN DOWN YOUR HEARING
AID! I THINK I'LL TRY MY HAND AT THIS GOLD THINGY!

A fool and his money are soon parted.

A fool and his money are soon parted.

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I PROMISE I
WILL BE AN INFREQENT POSTER HERE!

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I PROMISE I
WILL BE AN INFREQENT POSTER HERE!

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I PROMISE I
WILL BE AN INFREQENT POSTER HERE!

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I PROMISE I
WILL BE AN INFREQENT POSTER HERE!

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I PROMISE I
WILL BE AN INFREQENT POSTER HERE!

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I PROMISE I
WILL BE AN INFREQENT POSTER HERE!

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I PROMISE I
WILL BE AN INFREQENT POSTER HERE!

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I PROMISE I
WILL BE AN INFREQENT POSTER HERE!

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I PROMISE I
WILL BE AN INFREQENT POSTER HERE!

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I PROMISE I
WILL BE AN INFREQENT POSTER HERE!

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I WILL BE AN
INFREQUENT POSTER HERE!

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I WILL BE AN
INFREQUENT POSTER HERE!

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I WILL BE AN
INFREQUENT POSTER HERE!

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I WILL BE AN
INFREQUENT POSTER HERE!

Earl: You comment June 10 23:26 sums up the Great Debate very nicely. RJ's well spoken and his points should certainly be considered, but he isn't really interested in debating.

Earl: You comment June 10 23:26 sums up the Great Debate very nicely. RJ's well spoken and his points should certainly be considered, but he isn't really interested in debating.

RJ: Did you hear the one about gold being so malleable ( how malleable IS it? ) that an ounce of it can be spun into a wire three miles ( or is it thirty miles? ) long! Or can be hammered so thin ( like the current market ) that you can read thru it? Shirley you've heard that. Doubtless one can unearth stories of refugees pulling themselves out of disintegrating cultures by the thread of a spun gold ounce, while inconspicuously hiding behind a newspaper that they were reading thru a severely beaten ounce of gold. Just try that trick with aluminum and see where it gets you. Also, gold CAN be eaten. Witness its use as a leafed decoration on cakes and pastries at the end stages of civilzations and indulgent societies. Silver bullets have been used in Romania since the 1930's Universal International werewolf movies to kill all sorts of hirsute man-beasts. Sort of like the folks who try to take your gold or .999 potatoes away during those occasional ( and pesky ) societal apocalypses. And as for suits, well, I don't much wear them except for "important" client meetings, etc, which don't seem to be so important as the years go by. It's the women who are lucky. They can wear gold lame' ( pronounced la-may ( ( can't find my accent here ) . Men can't get away with wearing their Au as clothing per se, without someone shouting Ey-You! ( "cept maybe on Fire Island ) . Also, did you ever notice that a one ounce Kruggerrand ( is that 1 "G" and 2 "R's" or what? ) is remarkably like a quarter, and will fit nicely in the slot at the laundry when you're low on change. So gold keeps your clothes clean as well. I used to fool the bus drivers in Manhattan with one ounce mapleleafs when they thought I was actually putting subway tokens in the change hopper. Gold gets you where you want to go. No, sir, I think this argument proves beyond a doubt that gold is indeed the only thing one needs to own. Come to think of it, it might even make a wonderful investment vehicle some day.

RJ: Did you hear the one about gold being so malleable ( how malleable IS it? ) that an ounce of it can be spun into a wire three miles ( or is it thirty miles? ) long! Or can be hammered so thin ( like the current market ) that you can read thru it? Shirley you've heard that. Doubtless one can unearth stories of refugees pulling themselves out of disintegrating cultures by the thread of a spun gold ounce, while inconspicuously hiding behind a newspaper that they were reading thru a severely beaten ounce of gold. Just try that trick with aluminum and see where it gets you. Also, gold CAN be eaten. Witness its use as a leafed decoration on cakes and pastries at the end stages of civilzations and indulgent societies. Silver bullets have been used in Romania since the 1930's Universal International werewolf movies to kill all sorts of hirsute man-beasts. Sort of like the folks who try to take your gold or .999 potatoes away during those occasional ( and pesky ) societal apocalypses. And as for suits, well, I don't much wear them except for "important" client meetings, etc, which don't seem to be so important as the years go by. It's the women who are lucky. They can wear gold lame' ( pronounced la-may ( ( can't find my accent here ) . Men can't get away with wearing their Au as clothing per se, without someone shouting Ey-You! ( "cept maybe on Fire Island ) . Also, did you ever notice that a one ounce Kruggerrand ( is that 1 "G" and 2 "R's" or what? ) is remarkably like a quarter, and will fit nicely in the slot at the laundry when you're low on change. So gold keeps your clothes clean as well. I used to fool the bus drivers in Manhattan with one ounce mapleleafs when they thought I was actually putting subway tokens in the change hopper. Gold gets you where you want to go. No, sir, I think this argument proves beyond a doubt that gold is indeed the only thing one needs to own. Come to think of it, it might even make a wonderful investment vehicle some day.

EBN Gold down .30 and Silver up a cent; Dollar continues to weaken versus the Yen down 1.14 ( 1.18% ) @ 111.23...Nikkei down 242 ( 1.18% ) and Japan's current acount surplus up over 90%....

EBN Gold down .30 and Silver up a cent; Dollar continues to weaken versus the Yen down 1.14 ( 1.18% ) @ 111.23...Nikkei down 242 ( 1.18% ) and Japan's current acount surplus up over 90%....

This mornings PL/PA news stories?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/z0009_17.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/y0023_z00_6.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/z0009_35.html

This mornings PL/PA news stories?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/z0009_17.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/y0023_z00_6.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/z0009_35.html

RJ -- Your argument that the last twenty years has been pretty dismal for investing in gold is pretty good. The numbers show that. No problem. On the other hand, one can look at it as no more than buying insurance. Hey, maybe the CBs etc. can hold down the price of gold for the rest of the year. Then again, maybe a bit of 'paper' can't get unwound fast enough. My statement that I do not trust you simply means that you might have me, or others, shorting the metal just when things 'get interesting'. Sorry, but these are interesting times and the next twenty years are not going to look like the last twenty years. It could also be that the next two months could be interesting. Time will tell. As for name calling, that's what the government and their media lackeys do. I certainly wouldn't like one of those labels doesn't get attached to you.

RJ -- Your argument that the last twenty years has been pretty dismal for investing in gold is pretty good. The numbers show that. No problem. On the other hand, one can look at it as no more than buying insurance. Hey, maybe the CBs etc. can hold down the price of gold for the rest of the year. Then again, maybe a bit of 'paper' can't get unwound fast enough. My statement that I do not trust you simply means that you might have me, or others, shorting the metal just when things 'get interesting'. Sorry, but these are interesting times and the next twenty years are not going to look like the last twenty years. It could also be that the next two months could be interesting. Time will tell. As for name calling, that's what the government and their media lackeys do. I certainly wouldn't like one of those labels doesn't get attached to you.

RJ- Been reading your replies to a lot of various questions, and comments addressed to you, and would like to make the following point.

Most of us, I believe, see gold not as a trading vehicle, but an investment for, and in the future, one that could survive possible calamities, in the stock markets, which appear to be substantially over-valued.

There are other possiblities, but gold and precious metals seem, at this time in history, to be undervalued and from a chartist standpoint being accumulated. Quoting- Accumulation of paper today to trade for the commodities of the day and the invest for
the future is the wisest way to protect oneself. Hope you don't feel this was taken out of context, as it was only a part of what you said. However what would you recommend as a better long range future investment at this time, than precious metals, in various forms of investment?

Have the Republicans painted themselves into a
corner again over this disaster relief bill? Looks
like another big win for Clinton. ( Ignore that
obnoxious shouter )

Have the Republicans painted themselves into a
corner again over this disaster relief bill? Looks
like another big win for Clinton. ( Ignore that
obnoxious shouter )

RJ- Been reading your replies to a lot of various questions, and comments addressed to you, and would like to make the following point.

Most of us, I believe, see gold not as a trading vehicle, but an investment for, and in the future, one that could survive possible calamities, in the stock markets, which appear to be substantially over-valued.

There are other possiblities, but gold and precious metals seem, at this time in history, to be undervalued and from a chartist standpoint being accumulated. Quoting- Accumulation of paper today to trade for the commodities of the day and the invest for
the future is the wisest way to protect oneself. Hope you don't feel this was taken out of context, as it was only a part of what you said. However what would you recommend as a better long range future investment at this time, than precious metals, in various forms of investment?

August gold down 60 cents despite drop in dollar/yen. Looks like things will get a little darker before the dawn.

August gold down 60 cents despite drop in dollar/yen. Looks like things will get a little darker before the dawn.

Panda ( 6:50 ) Sounds like more Russian incompetance....Looks like ya got a heat wave in Beantown...send it up this way!

Panda ( 6:50 ) Sounds like more Russian incompetance....Looks like ya got a heat wave in Beantown...send it up this way!

From the looks of the gold market and options which decrease in value every day if there is not movement that a joke is in order. Morning, Ted, something just dropped in your fishpond.

A man and his date walk into a very posh Rodeo Drive furrier after
having eaten a very expensive lunch at one of Beverly Hills most
exclusive restaurants.

"Show the lady your finest mink!" the fellow exclaims.

So the owner of the shop goes in back and comes out with an absolutely
gorgeous full-length coat. As the lady tries it on, the furrier sidles up to
the guy and discreetly whispers, "Ah, sir, that particular fur goes for
$65,000."

"No problem! I'll write you a check!"

"Very good, sir." says the shop owner. "Today is Saturday. You may
come by on Monday to pick it up, after the check has cleared the bank."

So the man and the woman leave. On Monday, the fellow returns. The
store owner is outraged: "How dare you show your face in here?! There
wasn't a single penny in your checking account!!"

"I just had to come by," grinned the guy,

"to thank you for the most wonderful weekend of my life!

From the looks of the gold market and options which decrease in value every day if there is not movement that a joke is in order. Morning, Ted, something just dropped in your fishpond.

A man and his date walk into a very posh Rodeo Drive furrier after
having eaten a very expensive lunch at one of Beverly Hills most
exclusive restaurants.

"Show the lady your finest mink!" the fellow exclaims.

So the owner of the shop goes in back and comes out with an absolutely
gorgeous full-length coat. As the lady tries it on, the furrier sidles up to
the guy and discreetly whispers, "Ah, sir, that particular fur goes for
$65,000."

"No problem! I'll write you a check!"

"Very good, sir." says the shop owner. "Today is Saturday. You may
come by on Monday to pick it up, after the check has cleared the bank."

So the man and the woman leave. On Monday, the fellow returns. The
store owner is outraged: "How dare you show your face in here?! There
wasn't a single penny in your checking account!!"

"I just had to come by," grinned the guy,

"to thank you for the most wonderful weekend of my life!

TED -- You can have the heat! One warm evening ( ~68 F ) and people are already driving like idiots! Somehow there is a germ of an idea here. If I could only 'infect' the gold market with such madness. Perhaps a heatwave in the metals markets???? Hmmmm, I'll have to think about that one...

TED -- You can have the heat! One warm evening ( ~68 F ) and people are already driving like idiots! Somehow there is a germ of an idea here. If I could only 'infect' the gold market with such madness. Perhaps a heatwave in the metals markets???? Hmmmm, I'll have to think about that one...

RJ - Your repeated comments of the last few days that Gold has been a lousy investment for the last twenty years, ( EG. - Your 00:13 ..."Average price of gold for the last 20 years: $327. Purchasing power of $327 ( 1977 dollars adjusted at 4% per anum ) : $716. Where did the other $389 go...?" ) , seems to me to be just backing up what many here are saying, and that is that Gold is at the bottom of a cycle right now and is UNDERVALUED at the present time. That's what you're saying in a nutshell if you really think about it.

RJ - Your repeated comments of the last few days that Gold has been a lousy investment for the last twenty years, ( EG. - Your 00:13 ..."Average price of gold for the last 20 years: $327. Purchasing power of $327 ( 1977 dollars adjusted at 4% per anum ) : $716. Where did the other $389 go...?" ) , seems to me to be just backing up what many here are saying, and that is that Gold is at the bottom of a cycle right now and is UNDERVALUED at the present time. That's what you're saying in a nutshell if you really think about it.

Morning Ted! Going to Work Now, Ted! C U L8R

Morning Ted! Going to Work Now, Ted! C U L8R

I know how to 'save' gold ( from itself, that is! ) ! Everybody buy the S&P500 until it goes to infinity ( or pretty close to it ) , then gold will be so cheap, everybody will just have to buy it. They'll buy it, if for no other reason, to put in their dessert! :- ) )

I can see it now, "I'd like a chocolate ice cream cone with gold jimmies please." Think of the possibilites! And what if we used platinum jimmies instead of gold jimmies!!! Think of it! :- ) ) :- ) ) :- ) )

I know how to 'save' gold ( from itself, that is! ) ! Everybody buy the S&P500 until it goes to infinity ( or pretty close to it ) , then gold will be so cheap, everybody will just have to buy it. They'll buy it, if for no other reason, to put in their dessert! :- ) )

I can see it now, "I'd like a chocolate ice cream cone with gold jimmies please." Think of the possibilites! And what if we used platinum jimmies instead of gold jimmies!!! Think of it! :- ) ) :- ) ) :- ) )

Tort: It ain't here yet as Iez in a mad rush fer the woods fer me last day of chainsawin before the blackflies go BESERK...Warm weather finally here ( 67 F and climbing ) and those vicious little bastards are just learnin how ta bite...Panda: HAHAHA....Kill one of those Harvard-yard air-heads fer me....

Tort: It ain't here yet as Iez in a mad rush fer the woods fer me last day of chainsawin before the blackflies go BESERK...Warm weather finally here ( 67 F and climbing ) and those vicious little bastards are just learnin how ta bite...Panda: HAHAHA....Kill one of those Harvard-yard air-heads fer me....

Mooney: Get a life...and yer late fer work....again!

Mooney: Get a life...and yer late fer work....again!

RJ: In a more serious vein, there is a phenomenon I would like to call "segmentation of time" which might prove a fruitful way to view markets and human action. So, for instance, there are indeed some general things one can say about gold, or stocks, or bonds, etc, that apply quite nicely within certain segments of time. From 1972 to 1980, certain old saws concerning gold could have been repeated with little refutation. However, those obsessed with such stereotypes in the early 70's did far better as gold investors than those latecomers who mouthed such platitudes only in 1980. By the same token, since '82 those who believed the stock market could only rise, and that shares returned 10% and more like the rising Sun, did quite nicely. Those who have just now caught on to this old saw might be in for a surprise if and when a new time segment paradigm emerges. The correction in gold since '80 bears out your arguments for this time segment. No question. Even the most diehard gold aficionado must acknowledge there is a time and a price for everything, including gold. I think what we must glean from all this is that perhaps, just perhaps, we are at a juncture where a new time segment and paradigm shift in the investment world may be emerging. I realize that sometimes those who are noty sufficiently detached can argue that NOW is ALWAYS the moment that things will turn. This is human nature. Discounting that, however, it would not be surprising to conclude that the marvelous stockmarket spectacle we have been witnessing has given many gold accolytes support for the thought that a significant asset inversion, or re-evaluation, may be close at hand. One could not blame them, looking at a chart of the Dow. It has been my observation that these things unfold over a number of years, and since we are talking about a theoretical approaching time segment that itself could last a decade or two, we must endure the slow-motion gathering of forces that will exteriorize the as yet internalized future seen by the more prescient among the goldbugs and prophets of doom. I myself, while open to the most outrageous possible scenarios, realize that life usually goes on in spite of our occasional misteps and blunders. I hope only for prosperity, peace, and joy. But I look over my shoulder when I hear ( in ) human cannonballs rolling by.

RJ: In a more serious vein, there is a phenomenon I would like to call "segmentation of time" which might prove a fruitful way to view markets and human action. So, for instance, there are indeed some general things one can say about gold, or stocks, or bonds, etc, that apply quite nicely within certain segments of time. From 1972 to 1980, certain old saws concerning gold could have been repeated with little refutation. However, those obsessed with such stereotypes in the early 70's did far better as gold investors than those latecomers who mouthed such platitudes only in 1980. By the same token, since '82 those who believed the stock market could only rise, and that shares returned 10% and more like the rising Sun, did quite nicely. Those who have just now caught on to this old saw might be in for a surprise if and when a new time segment paradigm emerges. The correction in gold since '80 bears out your arguments for this time segment. No question. Even the most diehard gold aficionado must acknowledge there is a time and a price for everything, including gold. I think what we must glean from all this is that perhaps, just perhaps, we are at a juncture where a new time segment and paradigm shift in the investment world may be emerging. I realize that sometimes those who are noty sufficiently detached can argue that NOW is ALWAYS the moment that things will turn. This is human nature. Discounting that, however, it would not be surprising to conclude that the marvelous stockmarket spectacle we have been witnessing has given many gold accolytes support for the thought that a significant asset inversion, or re-evaluation, may be close at hand. One could not blame them, looking at a chart of the Dow. It has been my observation that these things unfold over a number of years, and since we are talking about a theoretical approaching time segment that itself could last a decade or two, we must endure the slow-motion gathering of forces that will exteriorize the as yet internalized future seen by the more prescient among the goldbugs and prophets of doom. I myself, while open to the most outrageous possible scenarios, realize that life usually goes on in spite of our occasional misteps and blunders. I hope only for prosperity, peace, and joy. But I look over my shoulder when I hear ( in ) human cannonballs rolling by.

Mike Sheller: Well said. I was trying to formulate something along the lines of time segments for both RJ and Fundy, but will now wait for responses to your post.

Kohl's governing coalition fracturing. May not last
out the year. Watch Germany

Kohl's governing coalition fracturing. May not last
out the year. Watch Germany

Mike Sheller: Well said. I was trying to formulate something along the lines of time segments for both RJ and Fundy, but will now wait for responses to your post.

arden and all: re arden 23:12 post, after the fall of Vietnam I knew certain folks who were present when the Vietnamese refugees were kept at military installations etc. awaiting US sponsors. Some of these folks were carrying so much gold sewn into their clothes/baggage they could barely walk. The US gov't was happy to exchange our dollars for their gold. A bank brought in a mobile branch, armored car etc. The highest amount of gold turned in was $180,000 ( and this was at 1975-76 prices! ) . I do not know if they were allowed to keep any gold or if they did. I do not believe the fact of this refugee gold was ever published but was young at the time and may have missed it. All of the refugees that I ever met were industrious, decent folks who took to US economy like fish to water, many are now prosperous in business. I wonder if any are now goldbugs?

arden and all: re arden 23:12 post, after the fall of Vietnam I knew certain folks who were present when the Vietnamese refugees were kept at military installations etc. awaiting US sponsors. Some of these folks were carrying so much gold sewn into their clothes/baggage they could barely walk. The US gov't was happy to exchange our dollars for their gold. A bank brought in a mobile branch, armored car etc. The highest amount of gold turned in was $180,000 ( and this was at 1975-76 prices! ) . I do not know if they were allowed to keep any gold or if they did. I do not believe the fact of this refugee gold was ever published but was young at the time and may have missed it. All of the refugees that I ever met were industrious, decent folks who took to US economy like fish to water, many are now prosperous in business. I wonder if any are now goldbugs?

True story: Disabled Barbie can't fit into her $100
Doll House! What next? Lawyer Barbie to sue Matel?

True story: Disabled Barbie can't fit into her $100
Doll House! What next? Lawyer Barbie to sue Matel?

Cry havoc and loose the dogs of currency war!

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970611/business/stories/dollar_18.html

Cry havoc and loose the dogs of currency war!

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970611/business/stories/dollar_18.html

This piece of paper is a strange creature. Once a receipt for something of value ( gold and silver ) it now is neither receipt nor debt. A worthless scrap of paper that others will ( for now ) accept and pay value for. The us treasury says there is about 500 billion worth here in the usa and less than one trillion world-wide. This world-wide figure is surely vastly understated. I have seen estimates of up to six and a half trillion. The us dollar is printed here and also at least in iran. Once a stable form we seem to be getting a new dollar every other year. Yet another change is coming as the onshore/offshore dollars. We have a real problem with the offshore printing presses.They may even provide the "crisis" which requires electronic cash as its solution. With the dollar you can be sure of only one thing. The dollar's value will one day equal that of all ( not a single exception and there have been thousands ) other currencies which have been stripped of their backing. Zero.

This piece of paper is a strange creature. Once a receipt for something of value ( gold and silver ) it now is neither receipt nor debt. A worthless scrap of paper that others will ( for now ) accept and pay value for. The us treasury says there is about 500 billion worth here in the usa and less than one trillion world-wide. This world-wide figure is surely vastly understated. I have seen estimates of up to six and a half trillion. The us dollar is printed here and also at least in iran. Once a stable form we seem to be getting a new dollar every other year. Yet another change is coming as the onshore/offshore dollars. We have a real problem with the offshore printing presses.They may even provide the "crisis" which requires electronic cash as its solution. With the dollar you can be sure of only one thing. The dollar's value will one day equal that of all ( not a single exception and there have been thousands ) other currencies which have been stripped of their backing. Zero.

Just catching up on the news Kitco after some boating with family ( Ted and Front inspired me to hit the water again ) . Excellent contributions. Vieserre, Earl, Ted Butler I'm trying to understand leasing/forward sales do any of you have any books, resources you could recommend? Mike Sheller, loved that segmentation of time idea; we must keep exploring, "where no Goldbug has gone before"!

From the World Gold Council. Comments?



In the London bullion market, Phibro has followed the recent example of
Lehman Brothers by withdrawing from market making, although the
former apparently intends to remain active in bullion. This reduces the
number of market makers in London to twelve. Finally, on June 4, Peter
Fava of Midland Bank was elected chairman of the London Bullion
Market Association, succeeding Alan Baker of Deutsche Morgan
Grenfell.

From the World Gold Council. Comments?



In the London bullion market, Phibro has followed the recent example of
Lehman Brothers by withdrawing from market making, although the
former apparently intends to remain active in bullion. This reduces the
number of market makers in London to twelve. Finally, on June 4, Peter
Fava of Midland Bank was elected chairman of the London Bullion
Market Association, succeeding Alan Baker of Deutsche Morgan
Grenfell.

Just catching up on the news Kitco after some boating with family ( Ted and Front inspired me to hit the water again ) . Excellent contributions. Vieserre, Earl, Ted Butler I'm trying to understand leasing/forward sales do any of you have any books, resources you could recommend? Mike Sheller, loved that segmentation of time idea; we must keep exploring, "where no Goldbug has gone before"!

RJ:

"Purchasing power of $327 ( 1977 dollars adjusted at 4% per anum ) : $716. Where did the other $389 go?"

Correct me if I'm wrong please, but I believe you're saying that the power of $327 adjusted at 4% inflation from 1977 would now be $716. In other words, the price for an item in 1977 being $327 that same item should now cost $716. I think I've got that right and agree.

If that follows, logic would say that if that item was gold ( oz. ) , then gold did not keep it's value since it should now be at $716 if it kept up with inflation over the years. If gold had moved in a straight line like inflation did, I would have to agree.

Perhaps we might back up just a second. Did not Gold a one point in time go over $800? Perhaps that was all the catch-up in one swoop? Obviously, if we had sold when it was at it's top, your argument would have folded rather quickly as we would have achieved a 10.5% increase in value even over inflated price levels. I agree that that was one day only, however it did happen and cannot be ignored by averaging. So if we missed that cycle, perhaps for the next cycle, we will be better positioned to sell to our advantage and "catch-up" again, all in one swoop?

Gold has moved in much larger cycle swoops than the dollar over the same time period.

You see my problem? You've taken the "average" of a very large cyclical moving target and compared it to a very steady "definitive" inflation movement. If you want your argument to be justified then you , IMHO, must compare apples to apples. If you want your arguments to stand the tests, then take the "average" of the moving target of inflation on the dollar as well. That would make it $521.50.

Nothing personal, I assure you. You did ask for someone to refute your numbers and I believe that now has been done. I also think you have compared apples and oranges, to your arguments advantage.

RJ:

"Purchasing power of $327 ( 1977 dollars adjusted at 4% per anum ) : $716. Where did the other $389 go?"

Correct me if I'm wrong please, but I believe you're saying that the power of $327 adjusted at 4% inflation from 1977 would now be $716. In other words, the price for an item in 1977 being $327 that same item should now cost $716. I think I've got that right and agree.

If that follows, logic would say that if that item was gold ( oz. ) , then gold did not keep it's value since it should now be at $716 if it kept up with inflation over the years. If gold had moved in a straight line like inflation did, I would have to agree.

Perhaps we might back up just a second. Did not Gold a one point in time go over $800? Perhaps that was all the catch-up in one swoop? Obviously, if we had sold when it was at it's top, your argument would have folded rather quickly as we would have achieved a 10.5% increase in value even over inflated price levels. I agree that that was one day only, however it did happen and cannot be ignored by averaging. So if we missed that cycle, perhaps for the next cycle, we will be better positioned to sell to our advantage and "catch-up" again, all in one swoop?

Gold has moved in much larger cycle swoops than the dollar over the same time period.

You see my problem? You've taken the "average" of a very large cyclical moving target and compared it to a very steady "definitive" inflation movement. If you want your argument to be justified then you , IMHO, must compare apples to apples. If you want your arguments to stand the tests, then take the "average" of the moving target of inflation on the dollar as well. That would make it $521.50.

Nothing personal, I assure you. You did ask for someone to refute your numbers and I believe that now has been done. I also think you have compared apples and oranges, to your arguments advantage.

Tort- This one's for you...
In a long line of people waiting for a bank teller, one guy suddenly started massaging the back of the person in front of him. Surprised, the man in front turned and snarled, "Just what the hell you are doing?"
"Well," said the guy, "you see, I'm a chiropractor and I could see that you were tense, so I had to massage your back. Sometimes I just can't help practicing my art!"
"That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard!" the guy replied. "Look, I'm a broker. Am I f&$#*ing the guy in front of me?"

Tort- This one's for you...
In a long line of people waiting for a bank teller, one guy suddenly started massaging the back of the person in front of him. Surprised, the man in front turned and snarled, "Just what the hell you are doing?"
"Well," said the guy, "you see, I'm a chiropractor and I could see that you were tense, so I had to massage your back. Sometimes I just can't help practicing my art!"
"That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard!" the guy replied. "Look, I'm a broker. Am I f&$#*ing the guy in front of me?"

All:

I might as well be the first to post it here....

ONTARIO has had a court ruling that it's legal for women to go topless outdoors anywhere in public. Some women in Toronto and Ottawa have already made the news and it hit CNBC last night. ( boy was Sue embarrased! ) Anyways, it's legal. The only problem I have is that the girl who showed up on TV last night while washing windows topless, had a spiked dog collar around her neck. Geez, I think I'd be looking out more for that than anything else! That could hurt !!!!

All:

I might as well be the first to post it here....

ONTARIO has had a court ruling that it's legal for women to go topless outdoors anywhere in public. Some women in Toronto and Ottawa have already made the news and it hit CNBC last night. ( boy was Sue embarrased! ) Anyways, it's legal. The only problem I have is that the girl who showed up on TV last night while washing windows topless, had a spiked dog collar around her neck. Geez, I think I'd be looking out more for that than anything else! That could hurt !!!!

Front -- I heard that story in the news last night. What do you folks do in the winter time? :- ) )

SA coal/gold mines start wage negotiations on Friday with the unions. The unions are reported to be looking for a twenty percent increase. Inflation running at %9+. More at;

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/y0023_z00_13.html

Front -- I heard that story in the news last night. What do you folks do in the winter time? :- ) )

SA coal/gold mines start wage negotiations on Friday with the unions. The unions are reported to be looking for a twenty percent increase. Inflation running at %9+. More at;

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/y0023_z00_13.html

Vieserre:

Thank you for your important contribution ( 23:11 ) to the leasing debate. I agree with you that the past and current benefits to the participants ( CB's, dealers, mining cos, users and speculators ) has been great - that's why they have grown to such significance in the market. Where we obviously disagree is in what adverse effect these leases have had/will have on the metal markets. I think the questions of who is being deceived and who is assuming the real risk in these transactions will be answered in time, although I did find it curious that not once in your posting did you mention the central banks, who along with other government lenders, are the prime real lenders of the metal, not the dealers. It would be a pretty boring debate if it were limited to who might be the bagholder ( s ) , and the choice was limited to dealers, CB's and/or mining cos.

I don't think it productive to answer your disagreement point by point ( although if you want I will ) , but allow me to observe my main problems with these metal loans;

1.Every time a loan is originated, physical metal is released. This is no bookeeping entry - actual metal goes to market. This has to influence price and the real supply/demand equation.

2.There has never been a net repayment of metal loans in their 15 year existence. While individual loans may have been paid back from time time ( maybe ) , the total outstanding amount of metal loans has only grown ( along with growing amounts of metal being dumped on the market ) . This means that we have never had to experience what it's like to observe market conditions when metal loans are repaid, and metal is taken from the market. I do think we started to see this in PL/PA when prices exploded and lease rates ( which were 1-2% for years ) jumped as high as 300%. A reasonable person would see or sense a connection. What is more interesting were reports that the the lease market just shut down and cash transactions were automatically extended.

3.The real problem with these loans is that they are the only class of loan, in existence, that are denominated in something other than currency or paper securities. Think about that for a moment. No other type of loan in the world calls for settlement in something which is finite in its existence. All other types of loans call for repayment in some type of paper which in an emergency, or run on the bank, can be created out of thin air. But you can't do that in the metals. In fact, because of the supply demand deficit in each of the precious metals, the supply is not even finite, it is shrinking, by definition. And against this shrinking supply base, we have growing repayment obligations. This is why the lease market in Pa ( and probably Pt ) shut down at the first sign of repayment demands. And why it has to happen in gold and silver. The only question being when. It is impossible for these metal loans to be repaid as called for.

Vieserre:

Thank you for your important contribution ( 23:11 ) to the leasing debate. I agree with you that the past and current benefits to the participants ( CB's, dealers, mining cos, users and speculators ) has been great - that's why they have grown to such significance in the market. Where we obviously disagree is in what adverse effect these leases have had/will have on the metal markets. I think the questions of who is being deceived and who is assuming the real risk in these transactions will be answered in time, although I did find it curious that not once in your posting did you mention the central banks, who along with other government lenders, are the prime real lenders of the metal, not the dealers. It would be a pretty boring debate if it were limited to who might be the bagholder ( s ) , and the choice was limited to dealers, CB's and/or mining cos.

I don't think it productive to answer your disagreement point by point ( although if you want I will ) , but allow me to observe my main problems with these metal loans;

1.Every time a loan is originated, physical metal is released. This is no bookeeping entry - actual metal goes to market. This has to influence price and the real supply/demand equation.

2.There has never been a net repayment of metal loans in their 15 year existence. While individual loans may have been paid back from time time ( maybe ) , the total outstanding amount of metal loans has only grown ( along with growing amounts of metal being dumped on the market ) . This means that we have never had to experience what it's like to observe market conditions when metal loans are repaid, and metal is taken from the market. I do think we started to see this in PL/PA when prices exploded and lease rates ( which were 1-2% for years ) jumped as high as 300%. A reasonable person would see or sense a connection. What is more interesting were reports that the the lease market just shut down and cash transactions were automatically extended.

3.The real problem with these loans is that they are the only class of loan, in existence, that are denominated in something other than currency or paper securities. Think about that for a moment. No other type of loan in the world calls for settlement in something which is finite in its existence. All other types of loans call for repayment in some type of paper which in an emergency, or run on the bank, can be created out of thin air. But you can't do that in the metals. In fact, because of the supply demand deficit in each of the precious metals, the supply is not even finite, it is shrinking, by definition. And against this shrinking supply base, we have growing repayment obligations. This is why the lease market in Pa ( and probably Pt ) shut down at the first sign of repayment demands. And why it has to happen in gold and silver. The only question being when. It is impossible for these metal loans to be repaid as called for.

Steve Puetz: re Real Estate prices - In theory I agree with Davidson/Mogg that R.E. prices will be heading down, although not to the extreme of 10c on the dollar. In talking to my friends and associates, the vast majority are leveraged to the hilt, having paid less than 10% down ( most around 5% ) and are living on their credit cards to meet everyday expenses. Several have told me directly that if things get much worse, they will default on the loans, max out the credit cards and declare the big "B".

Being debt free at this time, am waiting patiently for the debt pyramid to topple over where I can then scoop up the bargains of a lifetime. Living in So. Calif. where housing prices are still overpriced by at least 50%, it will probably take some time before housing is again fair valued.

Just yesterday heard on the radio of an outfit offering loans on your property with NO equity needed! They state that they will loan up to 100% of the value of your house. Anybody got a lite? ( match or Bic lighter will do just fine ) .

Pass on my thanks to your wife for responding so quickly to the e-mail regarding the order of your book...

Steve Puetz: re Real Estate prices - In theory I agree with Davidson/Mogg that R.E. prices will be heading down, although not to the extreme of 10c on the dollar. In talking to my friends and associates, the vast majority are leveraged to the hilt, having paid less than 10% down ( most around 5% ) and are living on their credit cards to meet everyday expenses. Several have told me directly that if things get much worse, they will default on the loans, max out the credit cards and declare the big "B".

Being debt free at this time, am waiting patiently for the debt pyramid to topple over where I can then scoop up the bargains of a lifetime. Living in So. Calif. where housing prices are still overpriced by at least 50%, it will probably take some time before housing is again fair valued.

Just yesterday heard on the radio of an outfit offering loans on your property with NO equity needed! They state that they will loan up to 100% of the value of your house. Anybody got a lite? ( match or Bic lighter will do just fine ) .

Pass on my thanks to your wife for responding so quickly to the e-mail regarding the order of your book...

Ted Butler -- As part of the gold confiscation during the thirties, weren't gold loans also made illegal? In other words, loans were to be repaid in cash, not gold coinage. My question is, aren't these metal loans in effect 'gold' loans? If so, aren't they illegal? If they settle in cash, then the loaning of the metal is a fiction, no? If they settle in 'bullion', then they are illegal, per FDRs executive orders. None the less, I agree whole heartedly, that there is one hell of a problem looming! PA/PL are only harbingers of what may be coming in the near future.

Ted Butler -- As part of the gold confiscation during the thirties, weren't gold loans also made illegal? In other words, loans were to be repaid in cash, not gold coinage. My question is, aren't these metal loans in effect 'gold' loans? If so, aren't they illegal? If they settle in cash, then the loaning of the metal is a fiction, no? If they settle in 'bullion', then they are illegal, per FDRs executive orders. None the less, I agree whole heartedly, that there is one hell of a problem looming! PA/PL are only harbingers of what may be coming in the near future.

Panda:

In the winter time we bring the brass monkey indoors.

TTFN

Panda:

In the winter time we bring the brass monkey indoors.

TTFN

Checked out the cap, yet? Funny thing is ... brokers so far,
are probably the biggest customer group for the caps.

And, no, we do not carry coins/salt shakers. Just caps and T-shirts.

http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html

Checked out the cap, yet? Funny thing is ... brokers so far,
are probably the biggest customer group for the caps.

And, no, we do not carry coins/salt shakers. Just caps and T-shirts.

http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html

bw @9:04: History is on your side.

bw @9:04: History is on your side.

Ted Butler:

Your musings about the outstanding metal loans are appreciated. There is no doubt that in the event of a real shortage ( like when the cupboard is bare ) that these shorts would add a great deal of fuel to the fire. While I have seen estimates of the amount of gold out on loan I have never seen anyone take a stab at silver. In your investigations have you ever come across a number?

Ted Butler:

Your musings about the outstanding metal loans are appreciated. There is no doubt that in the event of a real shortage ( like when the cupboard is bare ) that these shorts would add a great deal of fuel to the fire. While I have seen estimates of the amount of gold out on loan I have never seen anyone take a stab at silver. In your investigations have you ever come across a number?

Crystal Ball, your message unfortunately rings true in my case and I was in front of that broker in the line to get on the bus. Looks like silver is showing signs its tired of sleepwalking and wants to get back in bed.

Crystal Ball, your message unfortunately rings true in my case and I was in front of that broker in the line to get on the bus. Looks like silver is showing signs its tired of sleepwalking and wants to get back in bed.

Ted Butler: I recall some talk of cash settlement in other markets. SP 500?? .... Is it possible for metal markets in delivery stress to declare some form of cash settlement? I realize that does not help fabricators out of their physical need but it should be apparent to all that end users are no longer a major source of concern in metal markets. The focus of concern seems to have been captured by speculators who stand to lose bigtime.

Ted Butler: I recall some talk of cash settlement in other markets. SP 500?? .... Is it possible for metal markets in delivery stress to declare some form of cash settlement? I realize that does not help fabricators out of their physical need but it should be apparent to all that end users are no longer a major source of concern in metal markets. The focus of concern seems to have been captured by speculators who stand to lose bigtime.

Cherokee: Could you please send me the source of a quote you posted some time ago which ended "lemmings all, lemmings all." Thanks

Cherokee: Could you please send me the source of a quote you posted some time ago which ended "lemmings all, lemmings all." Thanks

D.A.

Regarding your question on the size of the silver lease market. Boy, I wish I knew. My sense is that it is huge, based upon the published statistics and ancedotal evidence. As you have pointed out many times in the past, we are running a tremendous deficit in silver to the tune of hundreds of millions of ounces over many years. I look hard but I can't see this coming from voluntary inventory liquidation. The public may not be big buyers of silver or other metals, as metals, but I see zero evidence of net sales. Changes in inventory management can't account for it either. So I ask, where is the supply coming from to satisfy such staggering shortfalls with no change in price. If we are agreed it's happening in gold, it is reasonable to think it is happening in silver. Until two months or so ago I didn't know there even was a lease market in Pt and Pa. The point being these are not transactions done in the sunshine. Admittedly I am forced to infer some of these conclusions as far as size, but at least not to the actual existence of the market. In fact, I thought it quite interesting that the Treasury, in its brush-off response to my letter, acknowledged the existence of silver loans. And Bart lists the rate daily.

Last week I read a report that someone bought 50MM oz of silver from a lease transaction, and this weeks Barron's has a letter to the editor talking about a 50MM oz lease transaction in 1995. I guess if the facts and numbers were beyond question we wouldn't have much to talk about, or analysis or markets in general, I thought the amounts were not significant at first, but I don't think so anymore. And there's no way some CB is ever going to raise their hand and say, "Hey, we just got screwed and lost our metal to the city slickers", at least not the guys who actually made the loans.

D.A.

Regarding your question on the size of the silver lease market. Boy, I wish I knew. My sense is that it is huge, based upon the published statistics and ancedotal evidence. As you have pointed out many times in the past, we are running a tremendous deficit in silver to the tune of hundreds of millions of ounces over many years. I look hard but I can't see this coming from voluntary inventory liquidation. The public may not be big buyers of silver or other metals, as metals, but I see zero evidence of net sales. Changes in inventory management can't account for it either. So I ask, where is the supply coming from to satisfy such staggering shortfalls with no change in price. If we are agreed it's happening in gold, it is reasonable to think it is happening in silver. Until two months or so ago I didn't know there even was a lease market in Pt and Pa. The point being these are not transactions done in the sunshine. Admittedly I am forced to infer some of these conclusions as far as size, but at least not to the actual existence of the market. In fact, I thought it quite interesting that the Treasury, in its brush-off response to my letter, acknowledged the existence of silver loans. And Bart lists the rate daily.

Last week I read a report that someone bought 50MM oz of silver from a lease transaction, and this weeks Barron's has a letter to the editor talking about a 50MM oz lease transaction in 1995. I guess if the facts and numbers were beyond question we wouldn't have much to talk about, or analysis or markets in general, I thought the amounts were not significant at first, but I don't think so anymore. And there's no way some CB is ever going to raise their hand and say, "Hey, we just got screwed and lost our metal to the city slickers", at least not the guys who actually made the loans.

Big Trader is right again. Chaos in London on delivery day!

To Glenn, RJ, other traders: Any thoughts on what is keeping gold in such a narrow range?

To Glenn, RJ, other traders: Any thoughts on what is keeping gold in such a narrow range?

Big Trader is right again. Chaos in London on delivery day!

Earl:

In the case of the OTC metals markets there is no regulatory body to impose its will upon those with positions. There are individual contracts drawn up between the clearing houses and the buyers and the sellers. These contracts usually contain some clause with respect to defaulting but I don't know if there is any standard. I don't believe that there will be defaults in the PGM markets. There is after all a lot of metal being produced and there must be a clearing price. If Pa rises above the gold price for example, a great deal of the dental demand will dry up. If Pa were to get very high relative to Pl, I assume we would see some substitution in the auto industry. You may say well, how high would Pl have to go to get substitution? I don't know, but at some price the Japanese jewelry business would shut down. There is always a number at which people will sell. It may be a very big number, but a number none the less.

Earl:

In the case of the OTC metals markets there is no regulatory body to impose its will upon those with positions. There are individual contracts drawn up between the clearing houses and the buyers and the sellers. These contracts usually contain some clause with respect to defaulting but I don't know if there is any standard. I don't believe that there will be defaults in the PGM markets. There is after all a lot of metal being produced and there must be a clearing price. If Pa rises above the gold price for example, a great deal of the dental demand will dry up. If Pa were to get very high relative to Pl, I assume we would see some substitution in the auto industry. You may say well, how high would Pl have to go to get substitution? I don't know, but at some price the Japanese jewelry business would shut down. There is always a number at which people will sell. It may be a very big number, but a number none the less.

REB: ( Trading range of gold ) . I believe we are pretty close to an outbreak. Today situation reminds me to early 1993 just before gold started this 25% bull-run ( hedge funds jumped to the long-side ) . The charts seem very clear: triangle, positive divergences in almost every indicator. It shouldn't take another two weeks. It's possible that the outbreak goes down ( under 339 ) but unlikely, I guess 80:20.
Regards

REB: ( Trading range of gold ) . I believe we are pretty close to an outbreak. Today situation reminds me to early 1993 just before gold started this 25% bull-run ( hedge funds jumped to the long-side ) . The charts seem very clear: triangle, positive divergences in almost every indicator. It shouldn't take another two weeks. It's possible that the outbreak goes down ( under 339 ) but unlikely, I guess 80:20.
Regards

Ted Butler: Thanks for your work exposing this hustle. Having the details of this scam sure makes me feel better. In my opinion the complex gold lease mechanism was put in place not by accident or "the market" but by the same lovely people who have given us the worthless dollar and a financial system filled with worthless ious. After the run up of gold in the 1970's a plan had to be devised to prevent its reoccurrance. Once more our taxes have provided the resources used by those running the largest con game in the history of the world, to harm us.

Ted Butler: Thanks for your work exposing this hustle. Having the details of this scam sure makes me feel better. In my opinion the complex gold lease mechanism was put in place not by accident or "the market" but by the same lovely people who have given us the worthless dollar and a financial system filled with worthless ious. After the run up of gold in the 1970's a plan had to be devised to prevent its reoccurrance. Once more our taxes have provided the resources used by those running the largest con game in the history of the world, to harm us.

Earl,

You asked the right question re: cash settlements. Default is the most obscene financial word of all. You will never, ever hear it mentioned except as in, there was no default, or there will be no default, or we know of no defaults. What you will hear instead is the delivery period was extended, there are no dealings in the lease market because of those damn Russians, and it has been decided that all contracts will now be settled in cash until the markets stabalize, or contract specifications have been adjusted. Are we all on the same page now?

Earl,

You asked the right question re: cash settlements. Default is the most obscene financial word of all. You will never, ever hear it mentioned except as in, there was no default, or there will be no default, or we know of no defaults. What you will hear instead is the delivery period was extended, there are no dealings in the lease market because of those damn Russians, and it has been decided that all contracts will now be settled in cash until the markets stabalize, or contract specifications have been adjusted. Are we all on the same page now?

Ted Butler:

Another market whose activity is exemplary of one where a large overhang is in the process of being drawn down is Zinc. If you look at a chart of LME stocks with respect to price you can see that the inventory drawdown had to go on for a very long while before the price began to move higher. Since I do not believe there is a large market in zinc loans this would seem to be an example where large drawdowns in inventory can occur without effect price. My guess is supply, demand and prices curves do not exhibit those nice monotonically increasing or decreasing functions as graphed in ones basic econ textbook. My guess is that if existing stockpiles are greater than some basic threshold level with respect to consumption, drawdowns in inventory may be accomplished coincidentally with declining price. This is probably largely a function of emotion in the sense that inventory holders see the value of their inventory declining and take steps to liquidate some of their holdings so as not to incur further losses. This process may feed back positively upon itself causing even greater price declines and more liquidation. Because the activities are taking place in commercial enterprises, the action is very slow, and can be drawn out over many, many moons. An outside observer may see the process taken to what are apparently absurd extremes. It takes someone from outside the commercial realm, the speculator, to transmit the changing fundamentals into price action, by bidding for a material amount of supply. At this point the price may rise very sharply. After the price has gone way up the commercial players then can understand what has happened, so they're habits change. As WW stated the news follows price. Nine months ago you could not find a single story about a potential supply problem in the PGM's. Now Panda pulls a few off the news wire every morning. All this even though there have been no material changes to the amount of new production or the amount of consumption.

As a side note, with the markets being so thin and spreads being so wide there are some amazing trades that are popping up. I'm trying to get some long dated hedges done now and hope to have more to report soon.

Ted Butler:

Another market whose activity is exemplary of one where a large overhang is in the process of being drawn down is Zinc. If you look at a chart of LME stocks with respect to price you can see that the inventory drawdown had to go on for a very long while before the price began to move higher. Since I do not believe there is a large market in zinc loans this would seem to be an example where large drawdowns in inventory can occur without effect price. My guess is supply, demand and prices curves do not exhibit those nice monotonically increasing or decreasing functions as graphed in ones basic econ textbook. My guess is that if existing stockpiles are greater than some basic threshold level with respect to consumption, drawdowns in inventory may be accomplished coincidentally with declining price. This is probably largely a function of emotion in the sense that inventory holders see the value of their inventory declining and take steps to liquidate some of their holdings so as not to incur further losses. This process may feed back positively upon itself causing even greater price declines and more liquidation. Because the activities are taking place in commercial enterprises, the action is very slow, and can be drawn out over many, many moons. An outside observer may see the process taken to what are apparently absurd extremes. It takes someone from outside the commercial realm, the speculator, to transmit the changing fundamentals into price action, by bidding for a material amount of supply. At this point the price may rise very sharply. After the price has gone way up the commercial players then can understand what has happened, so they're habits change. As WW stated the news follows price. Nine months ago you could not find a single story about a potential supply problem in the PGM's. Now Panda pulls a few off the news wire every morning. All this even though there have been no material changes to the amount of new production or the amount of consumption.

As a side note, with the markets being so thin and spreads being so wide there are some amazing trades that are popping up. I'm trying to get some long dated hedges done now and hope to have more to report soon.

Is there a message here?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/z0009_44.html

and what about this?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/y0004_y00_7.html

Is there a message here?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/z0009_44.html

and what about this?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/y0004_y00_7.html

Good article on the politics of free trade on page a24 of todays wsj. The prices we are paying for goods produced by chineese political prisioners, children and other semi slave labor ( yes this may be but a component of the labor content of the incoming goods ) may seem cheap now but the long term cost may be more than we can afford. Free trade only works for a country if the people who lose their jobs to foreign competition can find other jobs equal to or better than the one lost. Its a sham to throw millions off welfare while at the same time shipping the jobs they could take to mexico and china. No doubt most in this country feel free trade benifits them, I did too at one time. When we enter the next economic down period the true cost of free trade may reveal itself.

Good article on the politics of free trade on page a24 of todays wsj. The prices we are paying for goods produced by chineese political prisioners, children and other semi slave labor ( yes this may be but a component of the labor content of the incoming goods ) may seem cheap now but the long term cost may be more than we can afford. Free trade only works for a country if the people who lose their jobs to foreign competition can find other jobs equal to or better than the one lost. Its a sham to throw millions off welfare while at the same time shipping the jobs they could take to mexico and china. No doubt most in this country feel free trade benifits them, I did too at one time. When we enter the next economic down period the true cost of free trade may reveal itself.

Gold stocks up across the board today; not just XAU. Volume decent, but not huge. Encouraging action. If the gold sector begins a big run this month ( fifty-fifty chance now in my opinion ) , look for the overall market to peak in July.

Gold stocks up across the board today; not just XAU. Volume decent, but not huge. Encouraging action. If the gold sector begins a big run this month ( fifty-fifty chance now in my opinion ) , look for the overall market to peak in July.

Have you all seem this?
Russian banks soon able to buy gold bars - Nemtsov

VLADIVOSTOK, Russia, June 11 ( Reuter ) - The Russian government is working on plans to allow commercial banks with the correct licences to buy gold bars, First Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov said on Wednesday.
He said the document relating to this issue would be signed in the the next few days. Nemtsov was speaking during a whirlwind trip to Russia's Far East, where a long-running energy crisis continues.

``This measure alone would be enough to help the gold mining industry out of a crisis,'' he said.

Nemtsov said Russia produced 113 tonnes of gold in 1996, and that output this year was expected to fall by several tonnes.

Gold output estimates in Russia vary widely. The head of the central bank's precious metals department, Sergei Kyshtymov, said last week that production in 1997 was likely to be no more than 100 tonnes, down 11 to 12 percent from 1996 levels.

Anatoly Chubais, Russia's other First Deputy Prime Minister, was quoted by Itar-Tass news agency on Tuesday as saying a presidential decree allowing the liberalisation of the gold market would be signed soon.

Plans to liberalise the heavily-centralised gold market were first announced by Chubais in April, and are expected to include a greater role for commercial banks in gold financing, purchasing and even exporting.

Proposals also include allowing individuals to buy gold directly from producers.

Have you all seem this?
Russian banks soon able to buy gold bars - Nemtsov

VLADIVOSTOK, Russia, June 11 ( Reuter ) - The Russian government is working on plans to allow commercial banks with the correct licences to buy gold bars, First Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov said on Wednesday.
He said the document relating to this issue would be signed in the the next few days. Nemtsov was speaking during a whirlwind trip to Russia's Far East, where a long-running energy crisis continues.

``This measure alone would be enough to help the gold mining industry out of a crisis,'' he said.

Nemtsov said Russia produced 113 tonnes of gold in 1996, and that output this year was expected to fall by several tonnes.

Gold output estimates in Russia vary widely. The head of the central bank's precious metals department, Sergei Kyshtymov, said last week that production in 1997 was likely to be no more than 100 tonnes, down 11 to 12 percent from 1996 levels.

Anatoly Chubais, Russia's other First Deputy Prime Minister, was quoted by Itar-Tass news agency on Tuesday as saying a presidential decree allowing the liberalisation of the gold market would be signed soon.

Plans to liberalise the heavily-centralised gold market were first announced by Chubais in April, and are expected to include a greater role for commercial banks in gold financing, purchasing and even exporting.

Proposals also include allowing individuals to buy gold directly from producers.

What will it take to get the XAU through the 106+ area? Friday's expirations??

What will it take to get the XAU through the 106+ area? Friday's expirations??

George s. Cole: Gold stocks up. If I remember right gold stocks went up BEFORE the big gold-rally in 1993 started.

George s. Cole: Gold stocks up. If I remember right gold stocks went up BEFORE the big gold-rally in 1993 started.

Ron Weidner -- see my 13:11.

In the FWIW column, I must climb upon my high horse now. Folks, let us remember that there are copyright laws. URLs are more appropo. No offense Ron, but some folks are posting realllly long articles here. A URL is more than sufficient, IMHO. Personal attacks upon me may now commence! Dismounting my high horse now. :- )

Ron Weidner -- see my 13:11.

In the FWIW column, I must climb upon my high horse now. Folks, let us remember that there are copyright laws. URLs are more appropo. No offense Ron, but some folks are posting realllly long articles here. A URL is more than sufficient, IMHO. Personal attacks upon me may now commence! Dismounting my high horse now. :- )

Speed: Mike Sheller has made a valid point but not related to the one that got me into this discussion. Certainly gold functioned very well against a rare event when it was worth $850 for a short time. It has not been a good investment since that time. If there is another similiar event it will be a good investment again. If you only read what is posted here you would think the financial calamity is going to happen this afternoon. The rest of the world are fools, storing paper and investing in mutual funds or buying stocks making 20-30% annually for years now. What morons. Paper is absurd, the world is running out of silver, IT can't last. One day this will all be true for a couple days.

Will you recognize it? Will you be alive when it happens? These IMO are the contrasting questions. Trying to defend why one would park money in a 20-20% paper investment as opposed to waiting for a calamity with money in a wasting investment is absurd. Prior to 1935 it was worth $20.67 for a hundred years. Not too good an investment for a century. That too is a part of history.

Speed: Mike Sheller has made a valid point but not related to the one that got me into this discussion. Certainly gold functioned very well against a rare event when it was worth $850 for a short time. It has not been a good investment since that time. If there is another similiar event it will be a good investment again. If you only read what is posted here you would think the financial calamity is going to happen this afternoon. The rest of the world are fools, storing paper and investing in mutual funds or buying stocks making 20-30% annually for years now. What morons. Paper is absurd, the world is running out of silver, IT can't last. One day this will all be true for a couple days.

Will you recognize it? Will you be alive when it happens? These IMO are the contrasting questions. Trying to defend why one would park money in a 20-20% paper investment as opposed to waiting for a calamity with money in a wasting investment is absurd. Prior to 1935 it was worth $20.67 for a hundred years. Not too good an investment for a century. That too is a part of history.

Panda Sorry, it was in a SI response, and I didn't think most people could access. Also sorry I missed yours. RW

Panda Sorry, it was in a SI response, and I didn't think most people could access. Also sorry I missed yours. RW

D.A.: Your zinc market illustration with elaboration was much appreciated. What appears to be a contradiction on the surface, makes more sense when someone explains it.

D.A.: Your zinc market illustration with elaboration was much appreciated. What appears to be a contradiction on the surface, makes more sense when someone explains it.

Ron Weidner -- If my currency were the rubble, er, I mean Ruble, and I were confused with the new $100 bills ( wait till tomorrows introduction of the new Fifty Dollar bills! ) versus the old $100 bills... I think I would want some gold if I could afford it! It seems the mainstay of the 'store of value' in Russia is the U.S. Dollar, specifically the $100 bills. Of course the 'new' bills are counterfeit resistant! :- ) ) It is, none the less, another curious story.... Somehow I don't think the Russian government would be doing this for 'the good of the citizens' though.

Ron Weidner -- If my currency were the rubble, er, I mean Ruble, and I were confused with the new $100 bills ( wait till tomorrows introduction of the new Fifty Dollar bills! ) versus the old $100 bills... I think I would want some gold if I could afford it! It seems the mainstay of the 'store of value' in Russia is the U.S. Dollar, specifically the $100 bills. Of course the 'new' bills are counterfeit resistant! :- ) ) It is, none the less, another curious story.... Somehow I don't think the Russian government would be doing this for 'the good of the citizens' though.

Fundy: 1. Gold has had some good moves since 1981. In 1993 for instance, gold and gold shares staged a nice up move. If you were astute enough to buy in late 1995 and get out in about May of 1996, you made some money. Call it trading vs. investing, but it's still profit.
2. Stocks have been on a tear for 6 years which is an anomaly, historically. There should have been at least one 20% correction somewhere in there and several 10% corrections. They haven't happened. Will this "new paradigm" continue? I don't think so.
3. Gold at 20.67 for 100 years was a good investment because during most of that time, prices went down ( deflation ) increasing the purchasing power of the gold. The point is moot, because Joe average citizen couldn't invest in stocks for most of that time anyway. He was ducking arrows, investing in 40 acres and a mule, etc.
4. I invest in more than bullion and mining shares. I've made and lost money on semiconductor stocks, energy services, a growing P&C Insurance company to name a few. I'm in gold primarily because I believe the "new paradigm" is bunch of bologna ( baloney ) .
5. The next 5 years will be very different from the last twenty and I'll bet that gold looks very good, while you take the paper side. Time will tell which of us made the right call.

Fundy: 1. Gold has had some good moves since 1981. In 1993 for instance, gold and gold shares staged a nice up move. If you were astute enough to buy in late 1995 and get out in about May of 1996, you made some money. Call it trading vs. investing, but it's still profit.
2. Stocks have been on a tear for 6 years which is an anomaly, historically. There should have been at least one 20% correction somewhere in there and several 10% corrections. They haven't happened. Will this "new paradigm" continue? I don't think so.
3. Gold at 20.67 for 100 years was a good investment because during most of that time, prices went down ( deflation ) increasing the purchasing power of the gold. The point is moot, because Joe average citizen couldn't invest in stocks for most of that time anyway. He was ducking arrows, investing in 40 acres and a mule, etc.
4. I invest in more than bullion and mining shares. I've made and lost money on semiconductor stocks, energy services, a growing P&C Insurance company to name a few. I'm in gold primarily because I believe the "new paradigm" is bunch of bologna ( baloney ) .
5. The next 5 years will be very different from the last twenty and I'll bet that gold looks very good, while you take the paper side. Time will tell which of us made the right call.

Re gold leasing: One of the knocks re gold is that it pays no interest. Isn't gold leasing a means of letting it do that? If someone likes gold as a store of value, but also wants to collect interest and not keep it around the house, it could be lent to someone else to be repaid later with interest. Obviously this means credit risk is assumed, but that's a reasonable business decision.

I suppose the difference between gold debt and dollar debt is that the fed can't print gold to fulfill its role of lender of last resort as it can with the dollar.

Re gold leasing: One of the knocks re gold is that it pays no interest. Isn't gold leasing a means of letting it do that? If someone likes gold as a store of value, but also wants to collect interest and not keep it around the house, it could be lent to someone else to be repaid later with interest. Obviously this means credit risk is assumed, but that's a reasonable business decision.

I suppose the difference between gold debt and dollar debt is that the fed can't print gold to fulfill its role of lender of last resort as it can with the dollar.

REB, Speed -- What a concept, turning gold in to paper!!! :- ) )

REB, Speed -- What a concept, turning gold in to paper!!! :- ) )

Speed: 1. Trading gold is a full time activity and not an investment except maybe a one day investment. If you can do it do it.
2. The current correctionless stock market is no more an anomoly than the $850 gold and I agree it won''t continue for ever.
3. The average Joe couldn't come up with the $20.67 for a lot of gold either.
4. Don't understand your use of the term "new paradign". I have only lost money in bullion and oil. Doing well currently in banks, communications, oil, and pipelines.

5. I'm fully invested since 1991 so I'm up about 350% in non precious metals and still waiting for the calamity to move the bullion and
mining shares. Move them up.

Leaving Fundy with the Tide as it happens. Talk to you latter.

Speed: 1. Trading gold is a full time activity and not an investment except maybe a one day investment. If you can do it do it.
2. The current correctionless stock market is no more an anomoly than the $850 gold and I agree it won''t continue for ever.
3. The average Joe couldn't come up with the $20.67 for a lot of gold either.
4. Don't understand your use of the term "new paradign". I have only lost money in bullion and oil. Doing well currently in banks, communications, oil, and pipelines.

5. I'm fully invested since 1991 so I'm up about 350% in non precious metals and still waiting for the calamity to move the bullion and
mining shares. Move them up.

Leaving Fundy with the Tide as it happens. Talk to you latter.

APH: if you're lurking out there somewhere, please repost the XAU level that would change your mind about it going down to the mid 90's. I was looking at several charts last night, and , I am convinced it wont go down much further from this point, but , then again, it doesn't always behave like I particularly want it to.

APH: if you're lurking out there somewhere, please repost the XAU level that would change your mind about it going down to the mid 90's. I was looking at several charts last night, and , I am convinced it wont go down much further from this point, but , then again, it doesn't always behave like I particularly want it to.

Much to chew on; anyone TA person want to study and post a stab at where we might be going? ( click on icon ) :

Much to chew on; anyone TA person want to study and post a stab at where we might be going? ( click on icon ) :

D.A.

Your zinc post was appreciated, as are all you posts. As you know I feel strongly about the precious metal loans, and I hope you didn't think I was implying that they were the driving factor in all other markets. As far as I know they are peculiar to the PMs. You did raise a point that I've contemplated for years, namely the observation that nowadays a commodity seems to scrape bottom price wise until inventory levels become so critical that the price goes perpendicular. While it very well may be for the reasons you suggest, I'd like you to consider another. That is, that because the price is set in the paper areana, on and off exchange, in the great struggle between the dealers and the large spec funds, the price is no longer "discovered" in the usual sense, i.e., following developments in the real cash market. What I'm suggesting is that the price is set first, then supply and demand adjust to it. This would explain how inventories of a commodity like zinc could decline over a long period of time with no impact on price, because any individual zinc producer or consumer would have marginal impact on price if a huge paper battle was being waged that resulted in a certain price level.

Let's look at a more personal example, silver. As you indicted about a week ago, along with RJ, bw and others ( me included in spirit, if not word ) a sharp rise could come as the battle was joined between the spec funds and the dealers, and there were all sorts of option expirations and positions taken and key technical trigger points. While it doesn't look like there will be any fireworks before friday ( and it breaks my heart ) , it was clear to all that the outcome was certainly not going to be over any changes in silver fundamentals. Hell, you know they're as bullish as can be. It had to with which warring group was going to get the upper hand. Unfortunately, the group I bet on didn't win. Too bad. But my point is this condition, which you know of in more detail than I do, while short term in this example, is symptomatic of all the markets and can result in long term cash market distortions if the paper battle is long term in nature. In other words, if the dealer community continuously floods a market with paper contracts to thwart the specs and succeeds in driving the price down over a long period of time, as production and consumption adjust, inventories will decline to eventually the critical level, and then we explode in price. You are right that this is not the way we learned economics.

D.A.

Your zinc post was appreciated, as are all you posts. As you know I feel strongly about the precious metal loans, and I hope you didn't think I was implying that they were the driving factor in all other markets. As far as I know they are peculiar to the PMs. You did raise a point that I've contemplated for years, namely the observation that nowadays a commodity seems to scrape bottom price wise until inventory levels become so critical that the price goes perpendicular. While it very well may be for the reasons you suggest, I'd like you to consider another. That is, that because the price is set in the paper areana, on and off exchange, in the great struggle between the dealers and the large spec funds, the price is no longer "discovered" in the usual sense, i.e., following developments in the real cash market. What I'm suggesting is that the price is set first, then supply and demand adjust to it. This would explain how inventories of a commodity like zinc could decline over a long period of time with no impact on price, because any individual zinc producer or consumer would have marginal impact on price if a huge paper battle was being waged that resulted in a certain price level.

Let's look at a more personal example, silver. As you indicted about a week ago, along with RJ, bw and others ( me included in spirit, if not word ) a sharp rise could come as the battle was joined between the spec funds and the dealers, and there were all sorts of option expirations and positions taken and key technical trigger points. While it doesn't look like there will be any fireworks before friday ( and it breaks my heart ) , it was clear to all that the outcome was certainly not going to be over any changes in silver fundamentals. Hell, you know they're as bullish as can be. It had to with which warring group was going to get the upper hand. Unfortunately, the group I bet on didn't win. Too bad. But my point is this condition, which you know of in more detail than I do, while short term in this example, is symptomatic of all the markets and can result in long term cash market distortions if the paper battle is long term in nature. In other words, if the dealer community continuously floods a market with paper contracts to thwart the specs and succeeds in driving the price down over a long period of time, as production and consumption adjust, inventories will decline to eventually the critical level, and then we explode in price. You are right that this is not the way we learned economics.

GERY: You are correct; gold stocks did lead bullion up in 1993. I suspect the same thing will happen this year. Still yoo early to tell if today's upward thrust will be sustained though.

Just to point out how cheap gold stocks are today versus the overall market. The XAU would have to climb to 140 to establish the same relationship to the Dow Industrials as prevailed at the BEGINNING of the 1993 gold bull. It would have to approach 300 to establish the relationship that prevailed at the END of the 1993 bull ( assuming the Dow remains at 7500 ) .

GERY: You are correct; gold stocks did lead bullion up in 1993. I suspect the same thing will happen this year. Still yoo early to tell if today's upward thrust will be sustained though.

Just to point out how cheap gold stocks are today versus the overall market. The XAU would have to climb to 140 to establish the same relationship to the Dow Industrials as prevailed at the BEGINNING of the 1993 gold bull. It would have to approach 300 to establish the relationship that prevailed at the END of the 1993 bull ( assuming the Dow remains at 7500 ) .

D.A. Thank you for the caution re Phoenix Gold. Your posts today have been helpful as well. Do you see an imbalance between supply and demand of PGM's in the intermediate term? ( say 1-2 years ) . I'm confused as to why the US mint would choose this time to issue platinum coins if there is an impending supply problem with such an important metal.

Back from the woods and see I missed alot...Comex Gold+Silver @ UNCH but Platinum+Palladium resumed upward thrust as did the trusty old DOW..up 36.56 ...XAU up 1.23...How many people have missed the entire 13 year Bull market by thinking the sky is goin ta fall???...Some day YOU will be right!

Back from the woods and see I missed alot...Comex Gold+Silver @ UNCH but Platinum+Palladium resumed upward thrust as did the trusty old DOW..up 36.56 ...XAU up 1.23...How many people have missed the entire 13 year Bull market by thinking the sky is goin ta fall???...Some day YOU will be right!

D.A. Thank you for the caution re Phoenix Gold. Your posts today have been helpful as well. Do you see an imbalance between supply and demand of PGM's in the intermediate term? ( say 1-2 years ) . I'm confused as to why the US mint would choose this time to issue platinum coins if there is an impending supply problem with such an important metal.

Tort: Just read yer e-mail...when do ya want me ta make "the hit"...and how will I know if it's the right broker?...They all look the same...Will try and get somethin off after diner which I am now makin...On the menu: Greek Cauliflower and Bulghur Pilav...HI FRONT!

Tort: Just read yer e-mail...when do ya want me ta make "the hit"...and how will I know if it's the right broker?...They all look the same...Will try and get somethin off after diner which I am now makin...On the menu: Greek Cauliflower and Bulghur Pilav...HI FRONT!

YellowDog - I would like to see the XAU close above 105 with Fidelity Select Gold ( FSAGX ) up at least .30 at the same time. Today for example XAU was up 150+ points while FSAGX was up a couple points and down .02 at 3 pm. This tells me the XAU isn't going to break out now. At best its sideways to down.

YellowDog - I would like to see the XAU close above 105 with Fidelity Select Gold ( FSAGX ) up at least .30 at the same time. Today for example XAU was up 150+ points while FSAGX was up a couple points and down .02 at 3 pm. This tells me the XAU isn't going to break out now. At best its sideways to down.

Ted of Scaterie - I'm Back! Yea, I know, tough life Mooney with those long hours, but it's 93 degrees in the shade in T.O., all of a sudden, and that kinda slows down the average person's metabolism to the point that they say, forget it, we'll look at houses another day, it is just too darn hot to think straight!
Ted of Gold Loan fame. - Another excellent thought provoking post at 15:22. Certain grains of truth there.
George ( of 'kingly' fame ) - Considering that we generally do take past occurrences and project that they will repeat themselves, ( with slight variations ) in the future, your theory is sound. However, the unexpected also happens quite frequently and perhaps Mr. Butler's ruminations may prove correct in this case. Time will tell, but certainly, if the Platinum storey repeats in Gold and Silver the physicals will, in this instance, lead the stocks.

Ted of Scaterie - I'm Back! Yea, I know, tough life Mooney with those long hours, but it's 93 degrees in the shade in T.O., all of a sudden, and that kinda slows down the average person's metabolism to the point that they say, forget it, we'll look at houses another day, it is just too darn hot to think straight!
Ted of Gold Loan fame. - Another excellent thought provoking post at 15:22. Certain grains of truth there.
George ( of 'kingly' fame ) - Considering that we generally do take past occurrences and project that they will repeat themselves, ( with slight variations ) in the future, your theory is sound. However, the unexpected also happens quite frequently and perhaps Mr. Butler's ruminations may prove correct in this case. Time will tell, but certainly, if the Platinum storey repeats in Gold and Silver the physicals will, in this instance, lead the stocks.

"Very few things happen at the right time, and the rest do not happen at all; the conscientious historian will correct these defects." -- Herodotus

"Very few things happen at the right time, and the rest do not happen at all; the conscientious historian will correct these defects." -- Herodotus

Mooney: Good excuse....hahaha ...it's too hot...hahaha..

Mooney: Good excuse....hahaha ...it's too hot...hahaha..

Novice: Sent ya an e-mail this mornin but made the mistake of sending it to the office...Does anyone "out there" work....At least Mooney drove around for a while and faked it...Front: What a beautiful day on the ocean and your river must be great on such a hot day!...but please slow down a bit and smell the roses...

Novice: Sent ya an e-mail this mornin but made the mistake of sending it to the office...Does anyone "out there" work....At least Mooney drove around for a while and faked it...Front: What a beautiful day on the ocean and your river must be great on such a hot day!...but please slow down a bit and smell the roses...

Mooney @16:29: Loved that quote. A lot. I have committed it to memory and will slip it back in here ( without attribution ) in few a months after everyone else has forgotten. ........ ( :- ) )

Mooney @16:29: Loved that quote. A lot. I have committed it to memory and will slip it back in here ( without attribution ) in few a months after everyone else has forgotten. ........ ( :- ) )

Fundy: Seem's to be the impression that stocks ( of the
non Precious Metal variety ) do nothing but go up. I
believe that with some 30,000+ listed securities
outthere, the ability to pick the right one ( s ) becomes
limited. As for the 4000 Mutual Funds, their
advertisements do not attract; as they have to pick
from the 30,000+ listed securities. This is not to
conclude that it is impossible to find -then buy- a good
stock, it's just difficult. In sum, they go up and down;
just like their gold stock cousins.

Fundy: Seem's to be the impression that stocks ( of the
non Precious Metal variety ) do nothing but go up. I
believe that with some 30,000+ listed securities
outthere, the ability to pick the right one ( s ) becomes
limited. As for the 4000 Mutual Funds, their
advertisements do not attract; as they have to pick
from the 30,000+ listed securities. This is not to
conclude that it is impossible to find -then buy- a good
stock, it's just difficult. In sum, they go up and down;
just like their gold stock cousins.

I was premature in my gold stock comments. Most of the stocks I follow went up, but both Fidelity gold funds were down. Today's rally was much narrower than I thought. APH is correct -- XAU, HUI, and FSAGX must move up together if a rally is to have a chance of sustaining itself.

MOONEY: Perhaps it will be different this time with bullion leading the stocks. But my bet still is that the stocks will lead.

I was premature in my gold stock comments. Most of the stocks I follow went up, but both Fidelity gold funds were down. Today's rally was much narrower than I thought. APH is correct -- XAU, HUI, and FSAGX must move up together if a rally is to have a chance of sustaining itself.

MOONEY: Perhaps it will be different this time with bullion leading the stocks. But my bet still is that the stocks will lead.

Two necessary conditions for the break-out of the XAU have not occured yet - a major volume day for ABX ( 2,000,000 or more, preferably 3,000,000 or more ) ; and the difference between spot gold and the xau getting up over 250 ( see Kaplan ) . For the latter to happen gold is going to have to lead the xau up, and this is usually not the case, or the xau is going to drop to about 90 first if gold continues its basing at current levels. I know some of you feel that gold will in fact lead the xau this time and that a number of you are reading a basing movement which could result in a break-out. I know that George Cole is not expecting a break-out until later in the summer. Any comments?

Two necessary conditions for the break-out of the XAU have not occured yet - a major volume day for ABX ( 2,000,000 or more, preferably 3,000,000 or more ) ; and the difference between spot gold and the xau getting up over 250 ( see Kaplan ) . For the latter to happen gold is going to have to lead the xau up, and this is usually not the case, or the xau is going to drop to about 90 first if gold continues its basing at current levels. I know some of you feel that gold will in fact lead the xau this time and that a number of you are reading a basing movement which could result in a break-out. I know that George Cole is not expecting a break-out until later in the summer. Any comments?

At least this is a real asset. The problem is it's nominal value has been vastly inflated by our ongoing credit bubble. Should the price of your 200,000 dollar house ( which was worth 25,000 fourty years ago ) fall to say 50,000 you may be little affected. However if you have a 150,000 loan and must sell you will be hurt big time. What might cause such a drop in nominal value? Ten percent or more of the residential housing in this country is unoccupied at any time. Some people own more than one home which they do not rent. When times get hard this will end. Suppose you have a large house, say 3000 sq feet. Your neighbor has the same. You both get layed off for what looks like a very long time. Want to cut your housing expenses by 50%? Just sell one house and you both have 1500 sq feet to live in ( three chinese families could live comfortably here ) and split all the expenses of one house. Hey, it might even be fun depending on your neighbor. Never happen you say. Not today, but times change. In terms of square feet we are the most over housed people in the history of the world. Its my feeling when the crunch comes you will be able to buy your dream house for a few thousand ounces of silver. Yes this does require a indeterminate wait.

At least this is a real asset. The problem is it's nominal value has been vastly inflated by our ongoing credit bubble. Should the price of your 200,000 dollar house ( which was worth 25,000 fourty years ago ) fall to say 50,000 you may be little affected. However if you have a 150,000 loan and must sell you will be hurt big time. What might cause such a drop in nominal value? Ten percent or more of the residential housing in this country is unoccupied at any time. Some people own more than one home which they do not rent. When times get hard this will end. Suppose you have a large house, say 3000 sq feet. Your neighbor has the same. You both get layed off for what looks like a very long time. Want to cut your housing expenses by 50%? Just sell one house and you both have 1500 sq feet to live in ( three chinese families could live comfortably here ) and split all the expenses of one house. Hey, it might even be fun depending on your neighbor. Never happen you say. Not today, but times change. In terms of square feet we are the most over housed people in the history of the world. Its my feeling when the crunch comes you will be able to buy your dream house for a few thousand ounces of silver. Yes this does require a indeterminate wait.

We have successfully kept the lid on precious metal
prices over the past several years. Our hope was, that
by doing such; that eventually a huge gold strike would
occur, and allow us to prosper, with our credit scheme.

We sent our best and brightest to Indonesia, only to find
disappointment.

We are sure that some one is ploting against us.

Please god have mercy on our soul's, so we may spread our
paper promises to all men of good faith and feed our
greed.

We have successfully kept the lid on precious metal
prices over the past several years. Our hope was, that
by doing such; that eventually a huge gold strike would
occur, and allow us to prosper, with our credit scheme.

We sent our best and brightest to Indonesia, only to find
disappointment.

We are sure that some one is ploting against us.

Please god have mercy on our soul's, so we may spread our
paper promises to all men of good faith and feed our
greed.

...at least Greenspan has some good insights...now, iffin' he'd just make that leap away from paper...

http://www.economeister.com/curracct/970611ca/green_ma.htm

...at least Greenspan has some good insights...now, iffin' he'd just make that leap away from paper...

http://www.economeister.com/curracct/970611ca/green_ma.htm

PANDA: Sounds like you're proposing we use the bigger-fool theory to push up the S&P futures. Leave me out! But do let me know when you all have bought.

PANDA: Sounds like you're proposing we use the bigger-fool theory to push up the S&P futures. Leave me out! But do let me know when you all have bought.

BW: Well said @ 9:04 a.m.

BW: Well said @ 9:04 a.m.

LAN MAN: 40% of the market value of all residential homes are loaned out. That include retired people who have paid off their mortgage. If you onlt include baby-boomers, it's probably more like 85% of the market value that is mortgaged. I got an add in the mail yesterday, a company in California said they would loan me 125% of the market value of my home!!!

LAN MAN: 40% of the market value of all residential homes are loaned out. That include retired people who have paid off their mortgage. If you onlt include baby-boomers, it's probably more like 85% of the market value that is mortgaged. I got an add in the mail yesterday, a company in California said they would loan me 125% of the market value of my home!!!

REB: Gold and silver pay no interest because they are money. Only credit market instruments pay interest -- to compensate the holder for a variety of risks -- including, loss of purchasing power and risk of default. These are not risk associated with owning the precious metals.

REB: Gold and silver pay no interest because they are money. Only credit market instruments pay interest -- to compensate the holder for a variety of risks -- including, loss of purchasing power and risk of default. These are not risk associated with owning the precious metals.

Jack: It isn't that hard to do. As a Canadian I trade the TSE mostly and the number of "good" companies is relatively as well as absolutely limited. Anyone with the wherewithall to connect up to Kitco can identify the 50-60 "good" companies in a day's work. There is a publication that will do it for your called the Investment Reporter I believe.

Jack: It isn't that hard to do. As a Canadian I trade the TSE mostly and the number of "good" companies is relatively as well as absolutely limited. Anyone with the wherewithall to connect up to Kitco can identify the 50-60 "good" companies in a day's work. There is a publication that will do it for your called the Investment Reporter I believe.

Everything says that the XAU bottomed at the end of April. The correction was ~60 % which is a nice correction. Indicators all point to up. On the very short term we may be slightly high. The best part is that if we are going up it will be big . We will have several days of 2 and 3 points. Wave structures are inconclusive right here. More later

Everything says that the XAU bottomed at the end of April. The correction was ~60 % which is a nice correction. Indicators all point to up. On the very short term we may be slightly high. The best part is that if we are going up it will be big . We will have several days of 2 and 3 points. Wave structures are inconclusive right here. More later

Jack: Its call Investors Digest.

Jack: Its call Investors Digest.

TED:

Thanks for the concern. I took your advise and tried to take it easier however, I fell asleep while thinking about slowing down. My guess is that helped. My gut spoke to me today ... no logic at all ... just a hunch ... now full into metals.

Mooney:

Was it even too hot for the topless girls? Understand you're having the same problenms as we are with the "ladies of the night" advertising in a different, forthright, fashion ( or lack thereof! ) .

Toplessness! This is going to be great for the tourism business this summer, isn't it! Sweden of North America !

TTFN

Hey junior- you got my vote for this week!!!

June is June is June, there ain't nothin like June for a dead gold month.

Tally HO

Hey junior- you got my vote for this week!!!

June is June is June, there ain't nothin like June for a dead gold month.

Tally HO

TED:

Thanks for the concern. I took your advise and tried to take it easier however, I fell asleep while thinking about slowing down. My guess is that helped. My gut spoke to me today ... no logic at all ... just a hunch ... now full into metals.

Mooney:

Was it even too hot for the topless girls? Understand you're having the same problenms as we are with the "ladies of the night" advertising in a different, forthright, fashion ( or lack thereof! ) .

Toplessness! This is going to be great for the tourism business this summer, isn't it! Sweden of North America !

TTFN

To read a sample issue of the Dines Letter, and excellent gold oriented newsletter in the internet, try www.dinesletter.com

To read a sample issue of the Dines Letter, and excellent gold oriented newsletter in the internet, try www.dinesletter.com

RT: Re: XAU and TA - Please see http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/8139

RT: Re: XAU and TA - Please see http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/8139

I know it's not right to bragg, and normally I do not, but since I was the only person anywhere calling for the DOW to hit 7500 before the end of June, ( Stated in April, about 100 full S&P points ago, here in Kitco ) allow me one "I told you so".

I know it's not right to bragg, and normally I do not, but since I was the only person anywhere calling for the DOW to hit 7500 before the end of June, ( Stated in April, about 100 full S&P points ago, here in Kitco ) allow me one "I told you so".

Glenn: Well done! Now then, what's next? Or, at least tell us some more about the trading pits.

Glenn: Well done! Now then, what's next? Or, at least tell us some more about the trading pits.

Today was the deadest day I have seen so far in Gold. It was really boring. The trend in Gold is still down and the trend in stocks is still up. The intermediate trend at the very least shall chance, ( With Gold up and stocks down ) in a few more weeks, say at least 2 more but no more than 5 )

Today was the deadest day I have seen so far in Gold. It was really boring. The trend in Gold is still down and the trend in stocks is still up. The intermediate trend at the very least shall chance, ( With Gold up and stocks down ) in a few more weeks, say at least 2 more but no more than 5 )

Glenn: I hope this gold trend ends soon. My mining shares are taking a pounding. I feel like Chuck Wepner ( if you know anything about heavyweight boxing ) .

Glenn: I hope this gold trend ends soon. My mining shares are taking a pounding. I feel like Chuck Wepner ( if you know anything about heavyweight boxing ) .

On the daily Dow Jones Industrial chart, it sure appears that the Dow is now putting in a 9th wave up from the April 14th bottom. : )

Glenn: oh well ... I only have a small % of my portfolio in mining stocks ( everything else is up ) . I guess I can't complain. I think I might buy more. The timing may be right to buy when everyone, including myself, is losing hope.

Glenn: oh well ... I only have a small % of my portfolio in mining stocks ( everything else is up ) . I guess I can't complain. I think I might buy more. The timing may be right to buy when everyone, including myself, is losing hope.

On the daily Dow Jones Industrial chart, it sure appears that the Dow is now putting in a 9th wave up from the April 14th bottom. : )

I take it Mr. Front that you were not at all affronted by the Front page of today's Toronto Sun newspaper ( ? ) which featured two buxom topless young ladies suntanning down at the Beaches area of Toronto. SAY! Now I know why Selby goes for a walk there everyday he can! Ladies of the night? ( In Muskeg Territory? )

I take it Mr. Front that you were not at all affronted by the Front page of today's Toronto Sun newspaper ( ? ) which featured two buxom topless young ladies suntanning down at the Beaches area of Toronto. SAY! Now I know why Selby goes for a walk there everyday he can! Ladies of the night? ( In Muskeg Territory? )

Sorry Byron! Didn't mean to be talking topless at the same time as you're talking top of the market!

Sorry Byron! Didn't mean to be talking topless at the same time as you're talking top of the market!

EWP ( 20:07 ) I remember Chuck the human punching bag...but could he take a punch!

Maybe this scenario doesn't make sense, but what if the central banks entered into a formal agreement to revalue all gold holdings to say $400 per ounze, and just admit the fact of long term monetary inflation? Also, since it seems the CB's want to get out of the gold holding business, to agree to a 50 year plan to liquidate holdings, say at 2% max sales per year. Would this help the euro dollar/emu situation to stay on schedule, increase gold sales income to CB's and also create a smooth transition to the gold markets with little damage to mining companies and investors. Periodically the value of gold could be adjusted to the true market value. Does this make sense, and what would happen to the value of gold in the market place if the CB's did this??

Maybe this scenario doesn't make sense, but what if the central banks entered into a formal agreement to revalue all gold holdings to say $400 per ounze, and just admit the fact of long term monetary inflation? Also, since it seems the CB's want to get out of the gold holding business, to agree to a 50 year plan to liquidate holdings, say at 2% max sales per year. Would this help the euro dollar/emu situation to stay on schedule, increase gold sales income to CB's and also create a smooth transition to the gold markets with little damage to mining companies and investors. Periodically the value of gold could be adjusted to the true market value. Does this make sense, and what would happen to the value of gold in the market place if the CB's did this??

EWP ( 20:07 ) I remember Chuck the human punching bag...but could he take a punch!

Maybe this is the calm before the storm. This paper bubble can't take much more, or can it???Who's got the needle ???

Maybe this is the calm before the storm. This paper bubble can't take much more, or can it???Who's got the needle ???

Mooney: Hasn't it cooled off enough to show houses NOW...Front: We made it past "hump day" and weekend is in sight...Tort: What's yer take on tonights action in Gold and in the "windy city"...GO JAZZ!

Mooney: Hasn't it cooled off enough to show houses NOW...Front: We made it past "hump day" and weekend is in sight...Tort: What's yer take on tonights action in Gold and in the "windy city"...GO JAZZ!

This may be of interest of those of you who are debating the ECU


New EC Regulations
The European Commission have just announced an agreement whereby
English
will be the official language of the EU rather than German, which was
the
other possibility. As part of the negotiations, Her Majesty's
Government
conceded that English spelling had some room for improvement and has
accepted a 5 year phase-in plan that would be known as "EuroEnglish":
In the first year, "s" will replace the soft "c".. Sertainly, this will
make
the sivil sevants jump with joy. The hard "c" will be dropped in favor
of
the "k". This should klear up konfusion and keyboards kan have 1 less
letter.

There will be growing publik enthusiasm in the sekond year, when the
troublesome "ph" will be replaced with the "f". This will make words
like
"fotograf" 20% shorter.

In the third year, publik akseptanse of the new spelling kan be
expekted to
reach the stage where more komplikated changes are possible.
Governments
will enkorage the removal of double letters, which have always ben a
deterent to akurate speling.

Also, al wil agre that the horible mes of the silent "e"'s in the
language
is disgraceful, and they should go away.

By the fourth yar, peopl wil be reseptiv to steps such as replasing
"th"
with "z" and "w" with "v". During ze fifz year, ze unesesary "o" kan be
dropd from vords kontaiining "ou" and similar changes vud of kors be
aplid
to ozer kombinations of leters.

After zis fifz yer, ve vil hav a reli sensibl riten styl. Zer vil be no
mor
trubls or difikultis and evrivun vil find it ezi tu understand ech
ozer.

ZE DREM VIL FINALI KUM TRU!!

This may be of interest of those of you who are debating the ECU


New EC Regulations
The European Commission have just announced an agreement whereby
English
will be the official language of the EU rather than German, which was
the
other possibility. As part of the negotiations, Her Majesty's
Government
conceded that English spelling had some room for improvement and has
accepted a 5 year phase-in plan that would be known as "EuroEnglish":
In the first year, "s" will replace the soft "c".. Sertainly, this will
make
the sivil sevants jump with joy. The hard "c" will be dropped in favor
of
the "k". This should klear up konfusion and keyboards kan have 1 less
letter.

There will be growing publik enthusiasm in the sekond year, when the
troublesome "ph" will be replaced with the "f". This will make words
like
"fotograf" 20% shorter.

In the third year, publik akseptanse of the new spelling kan be
expekted to
reach the stage where more komplikated changes are possible.
Governments
will enkorage the removal of double letters, which have always ben a
deterent to akurate speling.

Also, al wil agre that the horible mes of the silent "e"'s in the
language
is disgraceful, and they should go away.

By the fourth yar, peopl wil be reseptiv to steps such as replasing
"th"
with "z" and "w" with "v". During ze fifz year, ze unesesary "o" kan be
dropd from vords kontaiining "ou" and similar changes vud of kors be
aplid
to ozer kombinations of leters.

After zis fifz yer, ve vil hav a reli sensibl riten styl. Zer vil be no
mor
trubls or difikultis and evrivun vil find it ezi tu understand ech
ozer.

ZE DREM VIL FINALI KUM TRU!!

Gold and silver have been boring me today. I need excitement in my life. Ted, got your excellent epistle, have responded in kind. Jazz will whip Bulls in SLC tonight then will have to win one of two. I predict Jazz in 7. I further predict another boring day tomorrow in the metals.

Gold and silver have been boring me today. I need excitement in my life. Ted, got your excellent epistle, have responded in kind. Jazz will whip Bulls in SLC tonight then will have to win one of two. I predict Jazz in 7. I further predict another boring day tomorrow in the metals.

Alan Abelson calls it the "centipede bull market" -- because it has so many legs.

Alan Abelson calls it the "centipede bull market" -- because it has so many legs.

Ted: me too! My friends and I laugh when we lose money! What else can you do.

Ted: me too! My friends and I laugh when we lose money! What else can you do.

Mooney: I'll take any signals which come my way.:- )

Mooney: I'll take any signals which come my way.:- )

Mr. Puetz: This centipede only has 9 legs! ( :* ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) )

Mr. Puetz: This centipede only has 9 legs! ( :* ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) )

Jaz vil vin in 6...

Jaz vil vin in 6...

What does anyone think of the Dec. Silver $6.00 calls which expire in Nov. at $250.00 or less.?

What does anyone think of the Dec. Silver $6.00 calls which expire in Nov. at $250.00 or less.?

RJ: I take it you don't believe in the sun ether?

Mike Sheller: I was quoting Gurudas who refers to Alice Bailey. Who is she? It says here that her book is "Esoteric Astrology", but I'm sure I'm getting off topic.

PB

P.S.: I love all you guys. I've been lurking for over a year but RJ's comments brought me into the light. Somehow I couldn't resist.

RJ: I take it you don't believe in the sun ether?

Mike Sheller: I was quoting Gurudas who refers to Alice Bailey. Who is she? It says here that her book is "Esoteric Astrology", but I'm sure I'm getting off topic.

PB

P.S.: I love all you guys. I've been lurking for over a year but RJ's comments brought me into the light. Somehow I couldn't resist.

Jack: Both the Investment Reporter and the Investors Digest have been recommended to you on this site. They are two different publications obtainable from the same source. Both are Canadian. The Reporter has a selection of Key Stocks and recommends several for income purposes and several for growth purposes from the list each month depending on what should be moving. They include about 50 US stocks. They recently won a US award for picking stocks that gave the best return. The Digest is a biweekly ( I think ) compendium of brokerage house analyses and recommendations. I subscribe to both and find them useful. The Reporter recently had an article on gold stocks with a selected list and a discussion on when to buy - later they said. I can't recall the publisher's name right now, but could fax or e-mail it to you if you e-mail me your numbers. It doesn't show on my e-mail address, but there is an "underline" between richard and burke, i.e. richard_burke.

IMHO: Bla bla bla bla bla

IMHO: Bla bla bla bla bla

Jack: Both the Investment Reporter and the Investors Digest have been recommended to you on this site. They are two different publications obtainable from the same source. Both are Canadian. The Reporter has a selection of Key Stocks and recommends several for income purposes and several for growth purposes from the list each month depending on what should be moving. They include about 50 US stocks. They recently won a US award for picking stocks that gave the best return. The Digest is a biweekly ( I think ) compendium of brokerage house analyses and recommendations. I subscribe to both and find them useful. The Reporter recently had an article on gold stocks with a selected list and a discussion on when to buy - later they said. I can't recall the publisher's name right now, but could fax or e-mail it to you if you e-mail me your numbers. It doesn't show on my e-mail address, but there is an "underline" between richard and burke, i.e. richard_burke.

Library is closing. Nite All!

Library is closing. Nite All!

EMU: the tears are still pouring down my face. I have'nt read anything so funny in a long time. The Saints preserve us from new spelling!

EMU: the tears are still pouring down my face. I have'nt read anything so funny in a long time. The Saints preserve us from new spelling!

Front - Were did the figure of $512.50 come from? Ive been doing mathematical contortions all day trying to figure it out. You are correct, I asked for refutation, but the statement "that now has been done" is but cold satisfaction with no data to back it up. You said something about ignoring over $800 gold and comparing unlike fruits. Keep watch for a soon to follow post, you will find it interesting.

Let me proclaim now from the mountaintop! Hear me in every bazaar! Hush your restless whispers, be still in the pews, and behold: You are all right! Gold is very undervalued now. It is a great buy! It is even better than many of you realize! You will note that my argument to this point has been that gold has proven to be a very poor buy and hold investment. Gold has been a rubber dinghy with a hole in the bottom. The water leaks in faster than you can bail it out. The weight of all this gold can have you chest deep in a folded yellow boat with the water inexorably inching higher. You will drown holding more than what you consider absolutely necessary for times of disaster ( a very different amount for each person ) .

The key is to not buy gold and hold it. The key is to ( and some of you have probably smelled this coming ) buy gold and sell it!!! Buy low, sell high. Then, either sell short, or wait for a dip and buy it again. If you must own gold, use the profits from your trades to buy your gold. Use your gold to acquire gold. Most of all, don't forget the other metals

I have tried to make my points in a linear progression. Some of you have conceded a few of my points, others still doubt. OK. Lets ( lets ?? Waite? Let us??? ) all agree on some numbers. Lets all speak from a common point of reference. Let us begin this debate in earnest. Yes I have only started. Look for my next post. By the way, my favorite movie is "Twelve Angry Men".

Front - Were did the figure of $512.50 come from? Ive been doing mathematical contortions all day trying to figure it out. You are correct, I asked for refutation, but the statement "that now has been done" is but cold satisfaction with no data to back it up. You said something about ignoring over $800 gold and comparing unlike fruits. Keep watch for a soon to follow post, you will find it interesting.

Let me proclaim now from the mountaintop! Hear me in every bazaar! Hush your restless whispers, be still in the pews, and behold: You are all right! Gold is very undervalued now. It is a great buy! It is even better than many of you realize! You will note that my argument to this point has been that gold has proven to be a very poor buy and hold investment. Gold has been a rubber dinghy with a hole in the bottom. The water leaks in faster than you can bail it out. The weight of all this gold can have you chest deep in a folded yellow boat with the water inexorably inching higher. You will drown holding more than what you consider absolutely necessary for times of disaster ( a very different amount for each person ) .

The key is to not buy gold and hold it. The key is to ( and some of you have probably smelled this coming ) buy gold and sell it!!! Buy low, sell high. Then, either sell short, or wait for a dip and buy it again. If you must own gold, use the profits from your trades to buy your gold. Use your gold to acquire gold. Most of all, don't forget the other metals

I have tried to make my points in a linear progression. Some of you have conceded a few of my points, others still doubt. OK. Lets ( lets ?? Waite? Let us??? ) all agree on some numbers. Lets all speak from a common point of reference. Let us begin this debate in earnest. Yes I have only started. Look for my next post. By the way, my favorite movie is "Twelve Angry Men".

IMHO, ( for you Jr. ) ...... Back to Philby. The banks can put whatever value on gold that pleases them but as long as there remains an open market, the market will determine the price. Very much like interest rates. The market controls those as well. ...... The only way they can maintain control is if they confiscate the metal and ban individual possesion.

IMHO, ( for you Jr. ) ...... Back to Philby. The banks can put whatever value on gold that pleases them but as long as there remains an open market, the market will determine the price. Very much like interest rates. The market controls those as well. ...... The only way they can maintain control is if they confiscate the metal and ban individual possesion.

Mike Sheller - 06:16 - By far the most enjoyable posting I have ever read from these hallow halls. I laughed out loud. Your second posting - 08:35 - was well reasoned and wise. Let me offer my highest form of praise: You are a man who thinks the next thought. I sense a kindred spirit.

Mike Sheller - 06:16 - By far the most enjoyable posting I have ever read from these hallow halls. I laughed out loud. Your second posting - 08:35 - was well reasoned and wise. Let me offer my highest form of praise: You are a man who thinks the next thought. I sense a kindred spirit.

I haven't seen too many comments about the most obvious and possible most reliable indicator in the universe. What are the chances of 'Touch of Gold' and 'Silver Charm' coming in 1-2 in the Belmont. This is an obvious sign from whoever is in charge.

While a good analyst can evaluate indicators, a great analyst knows which indicators are real. You have been alerted, so make the most of it.

I haven't seen too many comments about the most obvious and possible most reliable indicator in the universe. What are the chances of 'Touch of Gold' and 'Silver Charm' coming in 1-2 in the Belmont. This is an obvious sign from whoever is in charge.

While a good analyst can evaluate indicators, a great analyst knows which indicators are real. You have been alerted, so make the most of it.

PB - I have always believed in the Sun Ether. I just never had a face for my faith. Thank you for enlightening me. I feel sooooo warm...........

PB - I have always believed in the Sun Ether. I just never had a face for my faith. Thank you for enlightening me. I feel sooooo warm...........

Jr. : Please check out EMU @20:29. Consider it the first step to adult communication. BTW, IMHO, your vocabulary has shrunk. It was much deeper and more colorful the other day.

Jr. : Please check out EMU @20:29. Consider it the first step to adult communication. BTW, IMHO, your vocabulary has shrunk. It was much deeper and more colorful the other day.

Have some pity on the new guy. What is IMHO? Im Mad as Hell Over this? I Must be Holding to much, Overbought? IMagine Hanging Ourselves? The Independent Metals Holistic Organization? Incurably Mentally Handicapped Other-worlders? Are you guys even human? What have I gotten myself into.....

Have some pity on the new guy. What is IMHO? Im Mad as Hell Over this? I Must be Holding to much, Overbought? IMagine Hanging Ourselves? The Independent Metals Holistic Organization? Incurably Mentally Handicapped Other-worlders? Are you guys even human? What have I gotten myself into.....

RJ: LOL. .. Nah! Nothing as clever as that. Merely, shorthand for a popular form of literary affectation; "In My Humble Opinion". Often seen with variants. ......... ( :- ) )

RJ: LOL. .. Nah! Nothing as clever as that. Merely, shorthand for a popular form of literary affectation; "In My Humble Opinion". Often seen with variants. ......... ( :- ) )

A hilarious if somewhat Orwellian post!

A hilarious if somewhat Orwellian post!

Prior to EMU. Hmmm EMU, is that the same as the bird? You know long neck, knobby knees, ostrich like?

Prior to EMU. Hmmm EMU, is that the same as the bird? You know long neck, knobby knees, ostrich like?

RJ: It is also one of my 10 favorites of all time. Was It Fonda? Its been many a year since I last saw it.

LOL..... Loud, Overbearing, and Lillylivered? Hey, Im new at this.

LOL..... Loud, Overbearing, and Lillylivered? Hey, Im new at this.

RJ: It is also one of my 10 favorites of all time. Was It Fonda? Its been many a year since I last saw it.

RJ: Who me? Nah! I tend more toward pompous than Orwelian. ..... Lest we become distracted from the evening's ( evenings ) business; I agree with your earlier post. .... A trite expression, "Fall in love with your women, not your investments". .... Personal experience has cast a doubt on the advisability of the first statement as well.

RJ: Who me? Nah! I tend more toward pompous than Orwelian. ..... Lest we become distracted from the evening's ( evenings ) business; I agree with your earlier post. .... A trite expression, "Fall in love with your women, not your investments". .... Personal experience has cast a doubt on the advisability of the first statement as well.

RJ - Of course I was referring to the "TWELVE ANGRY MEN."

RJ - Of course I was referring to the "TWELVE ANGRY MEN."

RJ -- Re: your 21:05. Last three paragraphs: Now your talkin'!

RJ: LOL - lots of luck BTW- By the way Also try the emoticons like ; )

RJ: LOL - lots of luck BTW- By the way Also try the emoticons like ; )

RJ -- Re: your 21:05. Last three paragraphs: Now your talkin'!

RJ: "Laughing Out Loud". ..... had an addition to your list but it was too salacious for a straight laced group like this. .... Before this becomes too tedious: BTW = By the way. .... and that should complete the most commonly used shorthand.

RJ: "Laughing Out Loud". ..... had an addition to your list but it was too salacious for a straight laced group like this. .... Before this becomes too tedious: BTW = By the way. .... and that should complete the most commonly used shorthand.

Vronsky - someone thought you were me. ( 00:36 ) I hope this puts and end to all such rumors. After all you couldnt even remember that it was: Henry Fonda, E.G.Marshall, Jack Klugman, and the Loud Overbearing, Lillyliverd guy.. .. who was he? You know, the last guy to fold. Little help here.

Vronsky - someone thought you were me. ( 00:36 ) I hope this puts and end to all such rumors. After all you couldnt even remember that it was: Henry Fonda, E.G.Marshall, Jack Klugman, and the Loud Overbearing, Lillyliverd guy.. .. who was he? You know, the last guy to fold. Little help here.

RJ:

Sorry to have been a burden to your calculator.

Sir:

You get an AVERAGE by adding the numbers and then dividing by the number of items added i.e......

$327 + $716 = $1043 / 2 = $521.50

You quoted the word "average". I thought you knew how to achieve it . Obviously I was mistaken. I'm sorry. My mistake.

TTFN

Earl: We better get together on this or the new guy will think we're pulling his leg. : )

Earl: We better get together on this or the new guy will think we're pulling his leg. : )

RJ:

Sorry to have been a burden to your calculator.

Sir:

You get an AVERAGE by adding the numbers and then dividing by the number of items added i.e......

$327 + $716 = $1043 / 2 = $521.50

You quoted the word "average". I thought you knew how to achieve it . Obviously I was mistaken. I'm sorry. My mistake.

TTFN

Earl - thanks, I feel up to speed now. Hey a new one! UTSN. is that allowed? can I just make something up like that, or am I crossing over the line here?

EMU: Ref: "Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:29 -- EMU ( @London ) : Many thank you's for relieving a tediously long and tiresome day. That was brilliant and very funny rhetoric.

EMU: Ref: "Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:29 -- EMU ( @London ) : Many thank you's for relieving a tediously long and tiresome day. That was brilliant and very funny rhetoric.

Earl - thanks, I feel up to speed now. Hey a new one! UTSN. is that allowed? can I just make something up like that, or am I crossing over the line here?

Front - stand by.............

Front - stand by.............

Speed: Wasn't aware LOL had that connotation. .... Geeez, if we can't handle a few contractions, how do you think the europeans will handle EMU's new English?

Speed: Wasn't aware LOL had that connotation. .... Geeez, if we can't handle a few contractions, how do you think the europeans will handle EMU's new English?

RJ: You would do me a disfeavor by mistaking politeness for memory lapse. But apart from that, perhaps, you are referring to Lee J. Cobb ( his Hollywood name ) - which was a drastic contraction of his real ethnic name.

S&P Cash - Last night ( 6/10 19:56 ) I posted that Wave III being 2.618 x Wave I on a monthly chart would project a high at 870.70. Today's cash high was 870.66. Close enough. We should go down into the 39 week cycle low due end of June early July.

S&P Cash - Last night ( 6/10 19:56 ) I posted that Wave III being 2.618 x Wave I on a monthly chart would project a high at 870.70. Today's cash high was 870.66. Close enough. We should go down into the 39 week cycle low due end of June early July.

RJ: You would do me a disfeavor by mistaking politeness for memory lapse. But apart from that, perhaps, you are referring to Lee J. Cobb ( his Hollywood name ) - which was a drastic contraction of his real ethnic name.

Earl: Ve vill haf order und discipline here!
Remember "Hogan's Heros"? Those terrible German accents. I read EWP's post in that tone and laughed out loud.

RJ: No, not really. And yes, you would be crossing over the line. It should become a part of the idiom ( gonna regret that word ) by common assent. .... But what the hell; you've ( you have ) already broken all rigidly held standards of decorum here anyway so ..... by all means, continue. .......

RJ: No, not really. And yes, you would be crossing over the line. It should become a part of the idiom ( gonna regret that word ) by common assent. .... But what the hell; you've ( you have ) already broken all rigidly held standards of decorum here anyway so ..... by all means, continue. .......

Earl: Ve vill haf order und discipline here!
Remember "Hogan's Heros"? Those terrible German accents. I read EWP's post in that tone and laughed out loud.

APH: Are you saying that the time has arrived to consider some bearish derivative instruments? Like puts 'n things? If you are prone to such; what strike and time?

APH: Are you saying that the time has arrived to consider some bearish derivative instruments? Like puts 'n things? If you are prone to such; what strike and time?

I meant EMU not EWP, sorry.

I meant EMU not EWP, sorry.

Steve Puetz -- You've seen what I've done to the gold sector by buying in to it, wait till I get to the S&P! :- ) )

Front -- I'm on my way to see the public display in your area!

RJ -- ROTFL........ Rolling On The Floor Laughing :- ) )

Speed: Und zen ve vill haf ze bratwurst und bier. Ya. Mucho cervesa, muy bien.

Speed: Und zen ve vill haf ze bratwurst und bier. Ya. Mucho cervesa, muy bien.

Steve Puetz -- You've seen what I've done to the gold sector by buying in to it, wait till I get to the S&P! :- ) )

Front -- I'm on my way to see the public display in your area!

RJ -- ROTFL........ Rolling On The Floor Laughing :- ) )

RJ:

To quote:

"The key is to not buy gold and hold it. The key is to ( and some of you have probably smelled this coming ) buy gold and sell it!!! Buy low, sell high. Then, either sell short, or wait for a dip and buy it again. If you must own gold, use the profits from your trades to buy your gold. Use your gold to acquire gold. Most of all, don't forget the other metals "

Sit down for this....it's BIG.... That's exactly the point I was expressing in my post this morning. If we had sold when Gold was at $800 we would have had a profit.

Does this mean we agree? Oh GOD! What have I wrought !

TTFN ( :- )

RJ:

To quote:

"The key is to not buy gold and hold it. The key is to ( and some of you have probably smelled this coming ) buy gold and sell it!!! Buy low, sell high. Then, either sell short, or wait for a dip and buy it again. If you must own gold, use the profits from your trades to buy your gold. Use your gold to acquire gold. Most of all, don't forget the other metals "

Sit down for this....it's BIG.... That's exactly the point I was expressing in my post this morning. If we had sold when Gold was at $800 we would have had a profit.

Does this mean we agree? Oh GOD! What have I wrought !

TTFN ( :- )

Panda -- What? You never thought you could make a price drop just by buying it? Shame on you for your short-sightedness! ( All in jest! )

Panda -- What? You never thought you could make a price drop just by buying it? Shame on you for your short-sightedness! ( All in jest! )

Mooney: Sorry but I missed it in the paper. Save it for me? Or have you already dribbled over it too much? The "up here" I was referring to was Ottawa. Personally, I knew this would happen as soon as they wanted to burn their bras. Shouldn't have given them the vote either! Must be Liberals !

TED: Sorry to leave you out of the view of the lovely ladies in Ontario, but according to you, those socialists are not much to look at eh! Well, if it catchs on in Cape Breton, maybe they will .......

Mooney: Sorry but I missed it in the paper. Save it for me? Or have you already dribbled over it too much? The "up here" I was referring to was Ottawa. Personally, I knew this would happen as soon as they wanted to burn their bras. Shouldn't have given them the vote either! Must be Liberals !

TED: Sorry to leave you out of the view of the lovely ladies in Ontario, but according to you, those socialists are not much to look at eh! Well, if it catchs on in Cape Breton, maybe they will .......

Nothing interesting going on in the gold and silver market! Oh well ... a couple of interesting annual meetings on June 20th ( I think ) .

Nothing interesting going on in the gold and silver market! Oh well ... a couple of interesting annual meetings on June 20th ( I think ) .

Just a silly thought here, but at what point does the credit system implode or explode? If a currency is continually debased over time due to 'inflation', where and when does it stop? Is it asymptotically, as we approach one over zero ( 1/0 ) ? When a car costs $500,000 and gold is still at $340, or will gold go to $50/oz? At some point the credit system must 'fail'. One only has to look at the rising bankruptcy rate in a 'good' economy, and question some fundamental tenants presented by the gold bears.

One could write a lot of 'paper', and drive down the 'price' of gold to whatever, but in the end, isn't it about storing ones labor for future use? How does the credit system protect this when it is trying to constantly 'discover' the 'correct' interest rate ( lagging ) to preserve your purchasing power? BTW, it seems to do this poorly, or is that because of taxes?

EMU: vel Done : ) ) ) ) )

EMU: vel Done : ) ) ) ) )

Just a silly thought here, but at what point does the credit system implode or explode? If a currency is continually debased over time due to 'inflation', where and when does it stop? Is it asymptotically, as we approach one over zero ( 1/0 ) ? When a car costs $500,000 and gold is still at $340, or will gold go to $50/oz? At some point the credit system must 'fail'. One only has to look at the rising bankruptcy rate in a 'good' economy, and question some fundamental tenants presented by the gold bears.

One could write a lot of 'paper', and drive down the 'price' of gold to whatever, but in the end, isn't it about storing ones labor for future use? How does the credit system protect this when it is trying to constantly 'discover' the 'correct' interest rate ( lagging ) to preserve your purchasing power? BTW, it seems to do this poorly, or is that because of taxes?

OK Following are US Government CPI statistics. I think we can all agree that, if anything, the government understates these statistics. Also included are high and low gold prices for each of the last 20 years - provided by the Future Source, you read their FWN reports on the Kitco link. Note these numbers include $825 gold as well as $127 gold, hardly cherry picking my numbers.
I have added up the lows and highs and divided by 20. Who thinks this is a more accurate way to arrive at an average? Front, if you want to get snippy, Ill let you be wrong at the top of your voice. My post to your carried none of the hostility contained in yours. But I guess this one does. I have also taken the low and high for the year and used the somewhat simplistic "frontage method" and then averaged those.

As all can see, I was being extremely generous assuming a 4% per year for the last 20 years. The actual average for the last 46 years is 4.1%! As can be seen, the last twenty years have averaged no less than 5.2%. I had no figures for 1995 and 1996 so followed the 2.7% trend of the two prior years, I expect no objections to that.

OK, lets move on, one 1950 dollar is today worth 15 cents, or, conversely one 1950 dollar had the same purchasing power that $6.62 does today. What was gold in 1950? According to the Kitco history of London fixes, $34.72. OK lets call it $35, Im not picky. What is 35 x 6.62? Lets call it $232. Gold is now $344 or thereabouts. 232 / 344 = 67.4 % return on a FORTY SIX YEAR INVESTMENT! Remember, 7% compounded doubles in 10 years.

One 1977 dollar is now worth 37 cents. One 1977 dollar buys $2.72 today. Using the low of 1977, and again, I am trying to be kind, higher numbers only make it worse, $127 / .37 = $343.24. Isnt that just slightly lower than todays close? Break even in 20 years? When those dollars have depreciated by almost two thirds? I leave the numbers with you. Should anyone like the Excel spreadsheet, e-mail me at rjd@pacbell.net and I will send it to you. Feel free to delve into the formulas to see what mathematical trickery I use. This is the common reference point I mentioned in an earlier post. I have quoted the source of these numbers, if anyone offers different, please do the same. Maybe someone can teach me how to post a file or image?


US GOVERNMENT CPI 20 YEAR GOLD
YEAR CHANGE $1.00 CHANGE $1.00 LOW HIGH AVERAGE
1950 5.8% $1.06
1951 5.9% $1.12
1952 0.9% $1.13
1953 0.6% $1.14
1954 -0.5% $1.13
1955 0.4% $1.14
1956 2.9% $1.17
1957 3.0% $1.20
1958 1.8% $1.23
1959 1.5% $1.24
1960 1.5% $1.26
1961 0.7% $1.27
1962 1.2% $1.29
1963 1.6% $1.31
1964 1.2% $1.32
1965 1.9% $1.35
1966 3.2% $1.39
1967 3.0% $1.43
1968 4.7% $1.50
1969 6.1% $1.59
1970 5.5% $1.68
1971 3.3% $1.74
1972 3.4% $1.79
1973 8.8% $1.95
1974 12.2% $2.19
1975 7.0% $2.34
1976 4.0% $2.44
1977 6.8% $2.60 6.8% $1.07 127 168 148
1978 9.0% $2.84 9.0% $1.16 167 245 206
1979 13.1% $3.21 13.1% $1.32 218 518 368
1980 12.6% $3.61 12.6% $1.48 463 825 644
1981 8.9% $3.93 8.9% $1.61 389 597 493
1982 3.9% $4.09 3.9% $1.68 298 486 392
1983 3.8% $4.24 3.8% $1.74 373 510 442
1984 4.0% $4.41 4.0% $1.81 307 405 356
1985 3.8% $4.58 3.8% $1.88 282 349 316
1986 1.1% $4.63 1.1% $1.90 327 443 385
1987 4.4% $4.84 4.4% $1.98 389 502 446
1988 4.4% $5.05 4.4% $2.07 392 487 440
1989 4.7% $5.29 4.7% $2.17 356 419 388
1990 6.1% $5.61 6.1% $2.30 346 425 386
1991 3.1% $5.78 3.1% $2.37 341 403 372
1992 2.9% $5.95 2.9% $2.44 328 362 345
1993 2.7% $6.11 2.7% $2.51 325 414 370
1994 2.7% $6.27 2.7% $2.57 372 401 387
1995 2.7% $6.44 2.7% $2.64 371 398 385
1996 2.7% $6.62 2.7% $2.72 368 417 393
1997
AVERAGE 4.1% $0.15 5.2% $0.37 327 439 383

OK Following are US Government CPI statistics. I think we can all agree that, if anything, the government understates these statistics. Also included are high and low gold prices for each of the last 20 years - provided by the Future Source, you read their FWN reports on the Kitco link. Note these numbers include $825 gold as well as $127 gold, hardly cherry picking my numbers.
I have added up the lows and highs and divided by 20. Who thinks this is a more accurate way to arrive at an average? Front, if you want to get snippy, Ill let you be wrong at the top of your voice. My post to your carried none of the hostility contained in yours. But I guess this one does. I have also taken the low and high for the year and used the somewhat simplistic "frontage method" and then averaged those.

As all can see, I was being extremely generous assuming a 4% per year for the last 20 years. The actual average for the last 46 years is 4.1%! As can be seen, the last twenty years have averaged no less than 5.2%. I had no figures for 1995 and 1996 so followed the 2.7% trend of the two prior years, I expect no objections to that.

OK, lets move on, one 1950 dollar is today worth 15 cents, or, conversely one 1950 dollar had the same purchasing power that $6.62 does today. What was gold in 1950? According to the Kitco history of London fixes, $34.72. OK lets call it $35, Im not picky. What is 35 x 6.62? Lets call it $232. Gold is now $344 or thereabouts. 232 / 344 = 67.4 % return on a FORTY SIX YEAR INVESTMENT! Remember, 7% compounded doubles in 10 years.

One 1977 dollar is now worth 37 cents. One 1977 dollar buys $2.72 today. Using the low of 1977, and again, I am trying to be kind, higher numbers only make it worse, $127 / .37 = $343.24. Isnt that just slightly lower than todays close? Break even in 20 years? When those dollars have depreciated by almost two thirds? I leave the numbers with you. Should anyone like the Excel spreadsheet, e-mail me at rjd@pacbell.net and I will send it to you. Feel free to delve into the formulas to see what mathematical trickery I use. This is the common reference point I mentioned in an earlier post. I have quoted the source of these numbers, if anyone offers different, please do the same. Maybe someone can teach me how to post a file or image?


US GOVERNMENT CPI 20 YEAR GOLD
YEAR CHANGE $1.00 CHANGE $1.00 LOW HIGH AVERAGE
1950 5.8% $1.06
1951 5.9% $1.12
1952 0.9% $1.13
1953 0.6% $1.14
1954 -0.5% $1.13
1955 0.4% $1.14
1956 2.9% $1.17
1957 3.0% $1.20
1958 1.8% $1.23
1959 1.5% $1.24
1960 1.5% $1.26
1961 0.7% $1.27
1962 1.2% $1.29
1963 1.6% $1.31
1964 1.2% $1.32
1965 1.9% $1.35
1966 3.2% $1.39
1967 3.0% $1.43
1968 4.7% $1.50
1969 6.1% $1.59
1970 5.5% $1.68
1971 3.3% $1.74
1972 3.4% $1.79
1973 8.8% $1.95
1974 12.2% $2.19
1975 7.0% $2.34
1976 4.0% $2.44
1977 6.8% $2.60 6.8% $1.07 127 168 148
1978 9.0% $2.84 9.0% $1.16 167 245 206
1979 13.1% $3.21 13.1% $1.32 218 518 368
1980 12.6% $3.61 12.6% $1.48 463 825 644
1981 8.9% $3.93 8.9% $1.61 389 597 493
1982 3.9% $4.09 3.9% $1.68 298 486 392
1983 3.8% $4.24 3.8% $1.74 373 510 442
1984 4.0% $4.41 4.0% $1.81 307 405 356
1985 3.8% $4.58 3.8% $1.88 282 349 316
1986 1.1% $4.63 1.1% $1.90 327 443 385
1987 4.4% $4.84 4.4% $1.98 389 502 446
1988 4.4% $5.05 4.4% $2.07 392 487 440
1989 4.7% $5.29 4.7% $2.17 356 419 388
1990 6.1% $5.61 6.1% $2.30 346 425 386
1991 3.1% $5.78 3.1% $2.37 341 403 372
1992 2.9% $5.95 2.9% $2.44 328 362 345
1993 2.7% $6.11 2.7% $2.51 325 414 370
1994 2.7% $6.27 2.7% $2.57 372 401 387
1995 2.7% $6.44 2.7% $2.64 371 398 385
1996 2.7% $6.62 2.7% $2.72 368 417 393
1997
AVERAGE 4.1% $0.15 5.2% $0.37 327 439 383

EARL, TED BUTLER: We may see the same thing but the manner in which I have described it may create the illusion of difference.

My prior comments were directed specificially to leases. But, even considering these and other such transactions of which I am aware in a generic sense, I do not dispute that such carry trade, hedging practices, and other "shorting" type derrivatives or activities can create a powerful latent technical force of "cover" in the underlying market that if played out over a short time period will unleash a rash of technical buying that should have the probable effect of causing a spike in price of the underlying stuff. And this is one reason why I maintain LT positions in gold equities and am bullish on the market.

What I have tried to suggest that in a "perfect academic world" these transactions have a "double entry bookkeeping" quality to them and have have not in any way affected the net supply of the stuff after they have been unwound. Accordingly, after each such transaction is unwound, the net affect on the price over time should be the same as if it had not executed. And any current effect on price will be whether these outstanding transactions are increasing or decreasing in number, and the time frame. Not unlike the effect of future players selling future contracts without the stuff they are selling and then reacquiring it by buying an offsetting contract.

And in many respects it is not much different in concept than a bank loaning out more money than it has in reserves with the adverse consequences engendered by a run on the bank. But as Ted adroitly points out, there are also differences, which I will address in specfic comments to him.

I will refer more directly to each of your comments in subsequent personal posts.

EARL, TED BUTLER: We may see the same thing but the manner in which I have described it may create the illusion of difference.

My prior comments were directed specificially to leases. But, even considering these and other such transactions of which I am aware in a generic sense, I do not dispute that such carry trade, hedging practices, and other "shorting" type derrivatives or activities can create a powerful latent technical force of "cover" in the underlying market that if played out over a short time period will unleash a rash of technical buying that should have the probable effect of causing a spike in price of the underlying stuff. And this is one reason why I maintain LT positions in gold equities and am bullish on the market.

What I have tried to suggest that in a "perfect academic world" these transactions have a "double entry bookkeeping" quality to them and have have not in any way affected the net supply of the stuff after they have been unwound. Accordingly, after each such transaction is unwound, the net affect on the price over time should be the same as if it had not executed. And any current effect on price will be whether these outstanding transactions are increasing or decreasing in number, and the time frame. Not unlike the effect of future players selling future contracts without the stuff they are selling and then reacquiring it by buying an offsetting contract.

And in many respects it is not much different in concept than a bank loaning out more money than it has in reserves with the adverse consequences engendered by a run on the bank. But as Ted adroitly points out, there are also differences, which I will address in specfic comments to him.

I will refer more directly to each of your comments in subsequent personal posts.

TED BUTLER: I appreciate your thoughtful response, and there is certainly no need for a point by point rebuttal as you rightfully surmised. Moreover, my comments were not intended for argument but for self-enlightenment.

We still have points in contention. I cannot disagree that when metal is released to the market, price is influenced as more metal is being supplied to the marketplace. But I continue to contend that it does not change the supply/demand equation. There is indeed a double
book-keeping entry effect along each step of the lease transaction. And when the metal is sold there is a liability of repurchase created. It cannot be otherwise. To argue otherwise would defeat your position that the reason for the sharp increase in price is due to the
necessity of cover arising from the liability created under the lease transactions.

I accept as fact, arguendo, your contention that there has not been a net repayment of metal loans in their 15 year existence. And I also do not dispute, as mentioned in my earlier post, that if their was "a run for cover" there should be a sharp escalation in price.

But I am constrained to disagree with your loan classification theory. Loans are made of cars, wheat, houses, and any and all sorts of property. And like, metals, if they cannot be returned because of being loss, destroyed, abandoned, or stolen, the lessor may recover damages for his loss. Accordingly, I see no difference with the metals. If the metals cannot be returned, the obligor has liability for damages for cost of cover. As to why the lease market shut down, I do not know all of the ramifications for this, and I would appreciate your comments on this. But I would assume, as you suggest, there is a limited supply, demand is high, and the lessor does not wish to lose the opportunity of selling a commodity rapidly rising in price by leasing it out for an extended period at a lease rate which cannot be reasonably calculated due to extreme volatility.

In summary, we are in complete agreement with regard to possible price consequences caused by outstanding leases should there be a "cover run" on the metal, even though we may disagree as to how and why we get there.

TED BUTLER: I appreciate your thoughtful response, and there is certainly no need for a point by point rebuttal as you rightfully surmised. Moreover, my comments were not intended for argument but for self-enlightenment.

We still have points in contention. I cannot disagree that when metal is released to the market, price is influenced as more metal is being supplied to the marketplace. But I continue to contend that it does not change the supply/demand equation. There is indeed a double
book-keeping entry effect along each step of the lease transaction. And when the metal is sold there is a liability of repurchase created. It cannot be otherwise. To argue otherwise would defeat your position that the reason for the sharp increase in price is due to the
necessity of cover arising from the liability created under the lease transactions.

I accept as fact, arguendo, your contention that there has not been a net repayment of metal loans in their 15 year existence. And I also do not dispute, as mentioned in my earlier post, that if their was "a run for cover" there should be a sharp escalation in price.

But I am constrained to disagree with your loan classification theory. Loans are made of cars, wheat, houses, and any and all sorts of property. And like, metals, if they cannot be returned because of being loss, destroyed, abandoned, or stolen, the lessor may recover damages for his loss. Accordingly, I see no difference with the metals. If the metals cannot be returned, the obligor has liability for damages for cost of cover. As to why the lease market shut down, I do not know all of the ramifications for this, and I would appreciate your comments on this. But I would assume, as you suggest, there is a limited supply, demand is high, and the lessor does not wish to lose the opportunity of selling a commodity rapidly rising in price by leasing it out for an extended period at a lease rate which cannot be reasonably calculated due to extreme volatility.

In summary, we are in complete agreement with regard to possible price consequences caused by outstanding leases should there be a "cover run" on the metal, even though we may disagree as to how and why we get there.

I guess a spreadsheet doesn't paste so well. E-mail me for a copy.

EARL: Maestro, my obvious lack of communication skills continues to reveal itself for what I had thought I had expressed is exemplified by exactly what you contend. : )

RJ -- Re: your 21:05 once more; Hope there is still some physical metal out there to be had once a run-up has occurred. One ( of many ) of the possible reasons for the run-up will be because there isn't! That will be a big reason to already have it on hand, and perhaps to keep it there. Just for a very possible 'bad paper day' type of scenario. IMHO.

RJ -- Re: your 21:05 once more; Hope there is still some physical metal out there to be had once a run-up has occurred. One ( of many ) of the possible reasons for the run-up will be because there isn't! That will be a big reason to already have it on hand, and perhaps to keep it there. Just for a very possible 'bad paper day' type of scenario. IMHO.

EARL: Maestro, my obvious lack of communication skills continues to reveal itself for what I had thought I had expressed is exemplified by exactly what you contend. : )

I guess a spreadsheet doesn't paste so well. E-mail me for a copy.

Eldorado -- I've been working this from the wrong angle. I should be buying SPX calls and shorting the metals. This would cause the market collapse that some are looking for ( not me, oh no! ) and the metals to soar! You see I've got BT beat! I control the paper gold markets, yup. All I have to do is sell my HUI calls and gold will skyrocket! :- ) )

BTW, I guess no one is interested in the spoos tonight.

Eldorado -- I've been working this from the wrong angle. I should be buying SPX calls and shorting the metals. This would cause the market collapse that some are looking for ( not me, oh no! ) and the metals to soar! You see I've got BT beat! I control the paper gold markets, yup. All I have to do is sell my HUI calls and gold will skyrocket! :- ) )

BTW, I guess no one is interested in the spoos tonight.

Hey Front: C'mon. That bra burning business wasn't without it's compensation. You may have been less than thrilled with the political statement but it did much to change the summertime scenery. .... You know summer? The two weeks when the brass monkey is prominently displayed on the veranda. ...... As well, if "you had known ahead of time" you would have been prepared to gallantly offer matches and accelerant. ...... ( :- ) )

Hey Front: C'mon. That bra burning business wasn't without it's compensation. You may have been less than thrilled with the political statement but it did much to change the summertime scenery. .... You know summer? The two weeks when the brass monkey is prominently displayed on the veranda. ...... As well, if "you had known ahead of time" you would have been prepared to gallantly offer matches and accelerant. ...... ( :- ) )

Vieserre: No, my son. You have elegantly displayed your bonfides. Feel free to enter the circle of those who know and practice all forms of egregious pomposity. ...... Listening Jr.?

Vieserre: No, my son. You have elegantly displayed your bonfides. Feel free to enter the circle of those who know and practice all forms of egregious pomposity. ...... Listening Jr.?

New fifty Dollar bills tomorrow! Courtesy of;

New fifty Dollar bills tomorrow! Courtesy of;

Panda -- When does a credit system implode/explode? For one thing, you have to remember that it is first based upon a debt currency. Makes a BIG difference! Most inflation is thereby based on the prevailing interest rates for 'money', with a bit of time differential. Given that a certain amount of currency has to circulate to have a viable economy, and given that ALL this currency/credit etc. is loaned into existence with the the prevailing interest attached. All of this expanded debt/credit based on promise to pay. This can go on for quite some time until the 'credit-worthiness' of the borrowers falls to such a dismal level that re-payment cannot be had. In our case, exporting decent paying jobs can't help the situation either. An ever expanding mass of bancruptcies ensues as a beginning of the end. How long beyond that for the end? Perhaps the purchasers of all that ill-fated paper find that they don't want to be caught holding the proverbial bag. It just becomes a matter of time. In fact, all debt based money systems begin with the end already written! Lovely, ain't it?

Panda -- When does a credit system implode/explode? For one thing, you have to remember that it is first based upon a debt currency. Makes a BIG difference! Most inflation is thereby based on the prevailing interest rates for 'money', with a bit of time differential. Given that a certain amount of currency has to circulate to have a viable economy, and given that ALL this currency/credit etc. is loaned into existence with the the prevailing interest attached. All of this expanded debt/credit based on promise to pay. This can go on for quite some time until the 'credit-worthiness' of the borrowers falls to such a dismal level that re-payment cannot be had. In our case, exporting decent paying jobs can't help the situation either. An ever expanding mass of bancruptcies ensues as a beginning of the end. How long beyond that for the end? Perhaps the purchasers of all that ill-fated paper find that they don't want to be caught holding the proverbial bag. It just becomes a matter of time. In fact, all debt based money systems begin with the end already written! Lovely, ain't it?

Front - I guess I got a little carried away, I apologize.

Front - I guess I got a little carried away, I apologize.

Well, the precious yellow is being yellow again this evening. Time to say good night.

Well, the precious yellow is being yellow again this evening. Time to say good night.

RJ: Foul deed most fouly presented! "Cannon to left of them, cannon to the right of them; volleyed and thundered" ... Having just exhausted my Tennison; .... was it fair to include in your analysis the years 1950 to the mid 1970s when gold was actually released from indentured servitude? Since there would only be a net loss for that period.

RJ: Foul deed most fouly presented! "Cannon to left of them, cannon to the right of them; volleyed and thundered" ... Having just exhausted my Tennison; .... was it fair to include in your analysis the years 1950 to the mid 1970s when gold was actually released from indentured servitude? Since there would only be a net loss for that period.

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70hr.gif

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70hr.gif

RJ: BTW. USTN? "Useless Sorts of Typographical Nonesense"? "Unreleased Sexual Tension, No?"? "Uncle Sugar's Tin Nutcan". Right?

RJ: BTW. USTN? "Useless Sorts of Typographical Nonesense"? "Unreleased Sexual Tension, No?"? "Uncle Sugar's Tin Nutcan". Right?

RJ:

In my responce to your request for the verification of the figures, I wrote to you in a forthright and honest manner. I saw an error and attempted to say as much. I took the time out of my life to respond to you and yet what did I receive in your responce?

"You said something about ignoring over $800 gold and comparing unlike fruits"

I'm sorry, but that is being too flippant. Are you absolutely sure I was not expressing a genuine sorry for having taken for granted that you didn't know where the $521.50 came from? I know absolutely nothing about you except that you're called "RJ". You could be 13 years old and really interest in stocks. You could be 113 and too old to remember stocks. Who knows. So what should I do? You said you didn't know where I got the number. I explained and apologised for taking you for granted. If you perceive an insult, it is in your mind, not mine. Insulting you would gain nothing since I'm sure you realize that whenever an argument seems lost, name calling becomes the sword. You Sir were mistaken and swung the sword incorrectly in my direction.

You can spout all the numbers from here to eternity. You can post till the keys fail on your keyboard. You can do anything you wish except get into my mind and yet you have assured yourself that that was exactly what I meant and then proceeded to heap name calling on me.
Sorry RJ .... this time YOU blew it .....
If you expect respect, give it.

RJ:

In my responce to your request for the verification of the figures, I wrote to you in a forthright and honest manner. I saw an error and attempted to say as much. I took the time out of my life to respond to you and yet what did I receive in your responce?

"You said something about ignoring over $800 gold and comparing unlike fruits"

I'm sorry, but that is being too flippant. Are you absolutely sure I was not expressing a genuine sorry for having taken for granted that you didn't know where the $521.50 came from? I know absolutely nothing about you except that you're called "RJ". You could be 13 years old and really interest in stocks. You could be 113 and too old to remember stocks. Who knows. So what should I do? You said you didn't know where I got the number. I explained and apologised for taking you for granted. If you perceive an insult, it is in your mind, not mine. Insulting you would gain nothing since I'm sure you realize that whenever an argument seems lost, name calling becomes the sword. You Sir were mistaken and swung the sword incorrectly in my direction.

You can spout all the numbers from here to eternity. You can post till the keys fail on your keyboard. You can do anything you wish except get into my mind and yet you have assured yourself that that was exactly what I meant and then proceeded to heap name calling on me.
Sorry RJ .... this time YOU blew it .....
If you expect respect, give it.

Earl - Maybe I do have some USTN. Gott'a do something about it.

Earl - Maybe I do have some USTN. Gott'a do something about it.

RJ:

I was typing my lastest when you were posting.

If I had seen your apology I would not have written.

I to apologise.

TTFN

RJ:

I was typing my lastest when you were posting.

If I had seen your apology I would not have written.

I to apologise.

TTFN

RJ: Yeah. I know what you mean. Like Magic Johnson's AIDs, it's easily
"attained". And on a site like this, there's no tellin' what a guy'll pick up if'n he ain't careful. Like that USTN. Hear it's pretty much endemic.

RJ: Yeah. I know what you mean. Like Magic Johnson's AIDs, it's easily
"attained". And on a site like this, there's no tellin' what a guy'll pick up if'n he ain't careful. Like that USTN. Hear it's pretty much endemic.

Front - In case you did not notice, I apologized B4 your most recent. But you have a right to your response. I may be wrong sometimes, but I seldom stay wrong for long. You know nothing of me, nor I of you. I would hope that the sum of my arguments paints a picture of knowledge. In the passion of the moment, I sometimes forget that a sharp tongue cuts both ways, and a civil word begets civility

Front - In case you did not notice, I apologized B4 your most recent. But you have a right to your response. I may be wrong sometimes, but I seldom stay wrong for long. You know nothing of me, nor I of you. I would hope that the sum of my arguments paints a picture of knowledge. In the passion of the moment, I sometimes forget that a sharp tongue cuts both ways, and a civil word begets civility

Earl:

I was referring to the young lady on local TV last night. She and a friend were washing store windows, exposing themselves, apparently to see some reaction from passerbys. When they interviewed her, she said she was "hot" and so disrobed. I can accept that and as you say might have helped some of them if only I had known. The problem was that this young lady had on a collar. Not just any collar mind you but it looked like a collar a dog called "SPIKE" might use. It had domination written all over it believe me. My immediate thought was why she would wear it and then it hit me that she was protecting herself from those who disapproved. Tough life when you must wear a dog collar in order to expose your breasts even when legal!

Panda: Com'on up....bring your wallet .... we need the money ever since the damn socialists put us soooo much in the hole. We're going to start charging by the ounce !

TTFN

Earl:

I was referring to the young lady on local TV last night. She and a friend were washing store windows, exposing themselves, apparently to see some reaction from passerbys. When they interviewed her, she said she was "hot" and so disrobed. I can accept that and as you say might have helped some of them if only I had known. The problem was that this young lady had on a collar. Not just any collar mind you but it looked like a collar a dog called "SPIKE" might use. It had domination written all over it believe me. My immediate thought was why she would wear it and then it hit me that she was protecting herself from those who disapproved. Tough life when you must wear a dog collar in order to expose your breasts even when legal!

Panda: Com'on up....bring your wallet .... we need the money ever since the damn socialists put us soooo much in the hole. We're going to start charging by the ounce !

TTFN

Front: What's next. "Chains required, whips optional"? ..... but oh my goodness, you do get me excited when you talk like that. Do go on. .... ( :- ) )

Front: What's next. "Chains required, whips optional"? ..... but oh my goodness, you do get me excited when you talk like that. Do go on. .... ( :- ) )

Earl:

Can't...must change hands ....

TTFN

Earl:

Can't...must change hands ....

TTFN

Front: ROTL!! ... What are the present limits of propriety and are we approaching them?

Front: ROTL!! ... What are the present limits of propriety and are we approaching them?

Earl:

Passed 'em 8 minutes ago....
Off to bed ....
Pleasant dreams....

TTFN

Front -- Re: the topless 'women'; Next, the government will make a law imprisoning or fining anybody who looks. Can't have 'sexism' now, can we!

Front -- Re: the topless 'women'; Next, the government will make a law imprisoning or fining anybody who looks. Can't have 'sexism' now, can we!

Earl:

Passed 'em 8 minutes ago....
Off to bed ....
Pleasant dreams....

TTFN

Front: Under present circumstances, I hesitate to mention it ... but that last post should have begun as "ROT'F'L. ..... well enough, shall be left alone.

Front: Under present circumstances, I hesitate to mention it ... but that last post should have begun as "ROT'F'L. ..... well enough, shall be left alone.

Tried to download WS FTP for Win95, wouldn't let me on. Is it personal? How else might I post a file or graphic?

Tried to download WS FTP for Win95, wouldn't let me on. Is it personal? How else might I post a file or graphic?

wow---take a 2 week hiatus from the pewter and what
do you get?? pew-titus! it is terrible and causes
foaming at the finger-tips. pewter keys got so
lathered-up, that steam, from the stream of key-strokes,
began to cause secondary burns on the cats' peripherial
vision centers.

what a marvelous medium, this inter-net, cyber-wet, world-wide
knowledge machine!! the pros and cons of everything from topless
women ( easy earl ) , to some alter-ego with a desire to be a big
trader ( probably wishes for OTHER BIG bodily appendages tam-bien ) .
from carlos castenada, to mike sheller and hale-bopp. IT is all
HERE, and more.

taking a respite from the daily platitudes this forum offers,
gives one time ( upon returning ) to reflect on the great diversity
this world, and this platform offers.

where else??

no-where else, but kitco.

the written word is a thing of beauty, for all to see. speak it,
and it disappears into the void of the sleepwalkers. write it, and
the world becomes your critic, for better or worse, in good times and
bad, etc... ( earl knows those lines by heart )

the written language---one of the greatest inventions of ALL TIME!
the word---bearer of all that is, and harbinger of all that will be!

"if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have stood on
the shoulders of giants." isaac newton

kitco is full of giants. it is good to see the SAME flame, burning
in the breast of so many, from so many, diverse walks of life.

to the contributors, i salute you with 21 arrows aimed at the moon.
to the detractors, i part your scalp with big traders scapula.

le bon temps roulet, mes amies!!

cherokee!; ) driver of the smoke-signal-mobile for all time!!!

Eldo: Some laws are just naturally meant to be broken. ..... IMVHO. Listening Jr.?

Eldo: Some laws are just naturally meant to be broken. ..... IMVHO. Listening Jr.?

wow---take a 2 week hiatus from the pewter and what
do you get?? pew-titus! it is terrible and causes
foaming at the finger-tips. pewter keys got so
lathered-up, that steam, from the stream of key-strokes,
began to cause secondary burns on the cats' peripherial
vision centers.

what a marvelous medium, this inter-net, cyber-wet, world-wide
knowledge machine!! the pros and cons of everything from topless
women ( easy earl ) , to some alter-ego with a desire to be a big
trader ( probably wishes for OTHER BIG bodily appendages tam-bien ) .
from carlos castenada, to mike sheller and hale-bopp. IT is all
HERE, and more.

taking a respite from the daily platitudes this forum offers,
gives one time ( upon returning ) to reflect on the great diversity
this world, and this platform offers.

where else??

no-where else, but kitco.

the written word is a thing of beauty, for all to see. speak it,
and it disappears into the void of the sleepwalkers. write it, and
the world becomes your critic, for better or worse, in good times and
bad, etc... ( earl knows those lines by heart )

the written language---one of the greatest inventions of ALL TIME!
the word---bearer of all that is, and harbinger of all that will be!

"if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have stood on
the shoulders of giants." isaac newton

kitco is full of giants. it is good to see the SAME flame, burning
in the breast of so many, from so many, diverse walks of life.

to the contributors, i salute you with 21 arrows aimed at the moon.
to the detractors, i part your scalp with big traders scapula.

le bon temps roulet, mes amies!!

cherokee!; ) driver of the smoke-signal-mobile for all time!!!