"Double Dittos" to QT and Bernie for their latest cogent and, for the conservatives ( unfortunately for them ) , undeniably accurate points. The truth will win keep the faith! Nite All!

Vieserre:

As you are aware, physical systems become increasingly unstable as the slope of activity approaches infinity. The present DOW is a fair real world, approximation. It's bubble time and there is not a thing to be done to change it. ....

As a consequence, and with a certain amount of shame, I confess that I pay almost zero attention to the comings and goings of movers and shakers and the possible consequences of their actions. I think that we are in a very special time in economic history and there is nothing to be done to change it. Monetary authorities are literally caught between a stoop and a squat.

It is as if a locomotive is set in motion and nothing is to be done until it runs out of steam or track. All we can do is stand on the side and make bets as to the outcome and when. It's now gonna run its course. For good or ill. Please understand, I mean to he a fatalist here. Not a smartass.

I would be more comfortable with your XAU position if the volume of activity were higher. I don't think the major players even traded over their normal complement of 1 million shares today. It's entirely possible, as others have said, that the DOW is taking pressure off the gold stocks and the XAU will likely begin to reflect the gold action when the DOW slacks off a bit.

Earlier today I agreed with Nailz that it looked like the XAU was about to return for a retest of the low 90s. I no sooner said it than the damn thing broke above the short term downtrend line and remained above it at the close. I tried to post the chart but now discover I need some conversion software. .......... The format you have is not the one you need. The format you need is not the one that should be used. The format that should be used is not available at any price. ..... ( :- ) ) ( With attribution, via paraphrase , to Alice on Avid )

Vieserre:

As you are aware, physical systems become increasingly unstable as the slope of activity approaches infinity. The present DOW is a fair real world, approximation. It's bubble time and there is not a thing to be done to change it. ....

As a consequence, and with a certain amount of shame, I confess that I pay almost zero attention to the comings and goings of movers and shakers and the possible consequences of their actions. I think that we are in a very special time in economic history and there is nothing to be done to change it. Monetary authorities are literally caught between a stoop and a squat.

It is as if a locomotive is set in motion and nothing is to be done until it runs out of steam or track. All we can do is stand on the side and make bets as to the outcome and when. It's now gonna run its course. For good or ill. Please understand, I mean to he a fatalist here. Not a smartass.

I would be more comfortable with your XAU position if the volume of activity were higher. I don't think the major players even traded over their normal complement of 1 million shares today. It's entirely possible, as others have said, that the DOW is taking pressure off the gold stocks and the XAU will likely begin to reflect the gold action when the DOW slacks off a bit.

Earlier today I agreed with Nailz that it looked like the XAU was about to return for a retest of the low 90s. I no sooner said it than the damn thing broke above the short term downtrend line and remained above it at the close. I tried to post the chart but now discover I need some conversion software. .......... The format you have is not the one you need. The format you need is not the one that should be used. The format that should be used is not available at any price. ..... ( :- ) ) ( With attribution, via paraphrase , to Alice on Avid )

"Double Dittos" to QT and Bernie for their latest cogent and, for the conservatives ( unfortunately for them ) , undeniably accurate points. The truth will win keep the faith! Nite All!

STEVE PUETZ: Thanks for the ointment, re my noonish post.
I feel better now. TO ANYONE: Looks like the Dow is puffing up like
the Neki. Will a tiny pin let the air out? As I recall
the Black Monday in '87 phone lines were jammed, those
needing to replenish their margin accounts could not, some
blew their brains out. This time, internet trading systems
will will be all crammed or slowed to the point of madness.
If one has a decent profit, take it now and avoid the blood
bath.

Buy gold at these low prices. How long of a base line
do you need?

STEVE PUETZ: Thanks for the ointment, re my noonish post.
I feel better now. TO ANYONE: Looks like the Dow is puffing up like
the Neki. Will a tiny pin let the air out? As I recall
the Black Monday in '87 phone lines were jammed, those
needing to replenish their margin accounts could not, some
blew their brains out. This time, internet trading systems
will will be all crammed or slowed to the point of madness.
If one has a decent profit, take it now and avoid the blood
bath.

Buy gold at these low prices. How long of a base line
do you need?

O for a Muse of fire, that would ascend
The brightest heaven of invention:
A kingdom for a stage, and princes to act
And monarchs to behold the swelling scene
Leashed in like hounds, should Famine, Sword, and Fire
Crouch for employment. But pardon, Gentles all.

I have come to share. I would ask anyone to find an effort to sell in any of my postings. Ive have not even tried to sell my opinions, just state them unequivocally. I have read these pages for more than a year before ever announcing my presence. There were times, when what I read here, would cure any insomniac. But I kept reading, for the pearls of wisdom hiding amongst the flotsam. I stuck my fingers down a lot oysters throats to find these pearls though. ( never mind me, Im feeling particularly hostile towards metaphors this eve ) . So I came to shake your tree. A few of you, napping in your branches, looked down to see what appeared to be a bear snarling at your trunk. What you may have missed, from your lofty vantage point, is the bull, with horns buried to the forehead, up that poor bears ass. Maybe thats why the bear was making all this ruckus to start with.

I have asked for no reward, more rightly, I have asked for contention, for it is there we may all glimpse a common truth. And who questions my motives? Forgive me for trying to build a foundation on facts, and not fears, supposition, or half truths. Those areas to nebulous to be declared correct or no, I just told you what I felt. Some have said this was a breath of fresh air. IMHO, ( IM Hardly Obsequious ) I think so too.

O for a Muse of fire, that would ascend
The brightest heaven of invention:
A kingdom for a stage, and princes to act
And monarchs to behold the swelling scene
Leashed in like hounds, should Famine, Sword, and Fire
Crouch for employment. But pardon, Gentles all.

I have come to share. I would ask anyone to find an effort to sell in any of my postings. Ive have not even tried to sell my opinions, just state them unequivocally. I have read these pages for more than a year before ever announcing my presence. There were times, when what I read here, would cure any insomniac. But I kept reading, for the pearls of wisdom hiding amongst the flotsam. I stuck my fingers down a lot oysters throats to find these pearls though. ( never mind me, Im feeling particularly hostile towards metaphors this eve ) . So I came to shake your tree. A few of you, napping in your branches, looked down to see what appeared to be a bear snarling at your trunk. What you may have missed, from your lofty vantage point, is the bull, with horns buried to the forehead, up that poor bears ass. Maybe thats why the bear was making all this ruckus to start with.

I have asked for no reward, more rightly, I have asked for contention, for it is there we may all glimpse a common truth. And who questions my motives? Forgive me for trying to build a foundation on facts, and not fears, supposition, or half truths. Those areas to nebulous to be declared correct or no, I just told you what I felt. Some have said this was a breath of fresh air. IMHO, ( IM Hardly Obsequious ) I think so too.

Earl - You have a poets heart, and the keen eye of a sculptor.

Earl - You have a poets heart, and the keen eye of a sculptor.

Many of the June XAU Call writers are going to get
blown out next week. This will start with a big
gap up in the XAU tomorrow. Gold stocks wont be
cheap much longer.

Many of the June XAU Call writers are going to get
blown out next week. This will start with a big
gap up in the XAU tomorrow. Gold stocks wont be
cheap much longer.

RJ -- And I gave you some contention. Rightly or wrongly. A part/or all of which I would like to get resolved one way or another. But, part of that may come in your next weeks 'posting'. But, in the nearer term, namely tonight, what do you have in mind for the 'common truth'? P.S., Your prose almost equals Earls' eloquence. I take my cyberhat off to you!

RJ -- And I gave you some contention. Rightly or wrongly. A part/or all of which I would like to get resolved one way or another. But, part of that may come in your next weeks 'posting'. But, in the nearer term, namely tonight, what do you have in mind for the 'common truth'? P.S., Your prose almost equals Earls' eloquence. I take my cyberhat off to you!

For Steve Puetz
YES - Cancel all taxes. Privatize the army and the
police. Eliminate the political class who are the real
problem NOT the rich 1 per cent that Born Again Leninist
"BS Bernie" hates so much. After that, I suggest grant
independence to Vermont.
The above represents long term objectives. Short
term, I respectfully suggest we ignore all the silly
crapola that comes in from Bernie and Wacker. I really
don't care what they think and neither does the 1 per
cent. Why anyone is polite to these guys is beyond me.
Wacker is obsessed with Social Security - thats not
very pertinent to precious metals - or am I missing
something? Bernie's idea of confiscating wealth has
already been tried in many places Cambodia, N Korea,
Russia, China. It didnt work very well. Back in your
holes guys. This stuff is irrelevent, other than to
reveal the convoluted workings of the "liberal" mind -
i.e. to be envious, to repress individual freedom
wherever possible, and to impose their bent views on
others because they are "morally correct" since greater
than 50 per cent of the population has been driven by
similar self interested views to vote the same as they did.
They represent the true new Fascism. Dont let them feed
on your intellects. Ignore them and let them waste their
energy writing to a blind audience. Save your ammo, you
may need it for something more serious than Mister Wacker.

For Steve Puetz
YES - Cancel all taxes. Privatize the army and the
police. Eliminate the political class who are the real
problem NOT the rich 1 per cent that Born Again Leninist
"BS Bernie" hates so much. After that, I suggest grant
independence to Vermont.
The above represents long term objectives. Short
term, I respectfully suggest we ignore all the silly
crapola that comes in from Bernie and Wacker. I really
don't care what they think and neither does the 1 per
cent. Why anyone is polite to these guys is beyond me.
Wacker is obsessed with Social Security - thats not
very pertinent to precious metals - or am I missing
something? Bernie's idea of confiscating wealth has
already been tried in many places Cambodia, N Korea,
Russia, China. It didnt work very well. Back in your
holes guys. This stuff is irrelevent, other than to
reveal the convoluted workings of the "liberal" mind -
i.e. to be envious, to repress individual freedom
wherever possible, and to impose their bent views on
others because they are "morally correct" since greater
than 50 per cent of the population has been driven by
similar self interested views to vote the same as they did.
They represent the true new Fascism. Dont let them feed
on your intellects. Ignore them and let them waste their
energy writing to a blind audience. Save your ammo, you
may need it for something more serious than Mister Wacker.

Earl, Vieserre, RJ, Eldorado etc.: Thanks for a
stimulating dialogue tonight. Truly informative!
Even poetic at times.

Earl, Vieserre, RJ, Eldorado etc.: Thanks for a
stimulating dialogue tonight. Truly informative!
Even poetic at times.

With all due respect to our resident guru, APH, the XAU will see 120 before any visit ( if ever again ) back to the mid 90's.

BTW, When was the last time the gov't issued a new 50 dollar bill?
Answer: 1929!!! Coincidence? I THINK NOT!

With all due respect to our resident guru, APH, the XAU will see 120 before any visit ( if ever again ) back to the mid 90's.

BTW, When was the last time the gov't issued a new 50 dollar bill?
Answer: 1929!!! Coincidence? I THINK NOT!

RJ: A compliment most graciously accepted. ...... Though, if the 'E' stood for 'Ebenezer', my purse would be better served.

RJ: A compliment most graciously accepted. ...... Though, if the 'E' stood for 'Ebenezer', my purse would be better served.

Eldorado - If you were referring to the first part of my 00:10, hat's off to the Bard. The rest was mine. Thanks.

Eldorado - If you were referring to the first part of my 00:10, hat's off to the Bard. The rest was mine. Thanks.

RJ -- Actually, I was referring to all of it! Very nice!

RJ -- Actually, I was referring to all of it! Very nice!

Eldo @00:23: It's interesting that you should bring up writing style. Only moments ago, I emailed a friend on that very subject. The point of which was, that it is easy to take a penny's worth of substance and pump it up to a ten dollar bill. To which I plead guilty. In the end, it only serves to diminish Bart's bandwidth ratio. ..... Style should differentiated from substance. As messenger from message.

Eldo @00:23: It's interesting that you should bring up writing style. Only moments ago, I emailed a friend on that very subject. The point of which was, that it is easy to take a penny's worth of substance and pump it up to a ten dollar bill. To which I plead guilty. In the end, it only serves to diminish Bart's bandwidth ratio. ..... Style should differentiated from substance. As messenger from message.

This ominous report appeared on Yahoo Gold.

Thursday June 12 7:55 PM EDT

Fed-issued paper advocates government gold sales

WASHINGTON, June 12 ( Reuter ) - A new Federal Reserve study argues that the United States
and other governments should sell off their gold reserves to reap huge benefits for their economies.

``Government ownership of gold does not contribute directly to the ( general ) welfare,'' the
discussion paper, authored by a Fed economist and three other analysts, says.

The paper was issued by the central bank here but is the sole responsibility of the authors and
should not be seen as reflecting the views of the Fed's board.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is a long-time proponent of a return to the gold standard, although
his views are not widely shared at the central bank or generally among economists.

Governments hold some 1.11 billion ounces of gold. U.S. holdings alone amount to 262 million
ounces.

The Fed study comes as a number of governments are exploring ways to make better use of the
millions of ounces of gold they hold in reserves.

As part of its effort to participate in European monetary union, Germany is revaluing its gold
reserves. The International Monetary Fund may sell off some of its gold holdings to help finance a
lending program for poor nations.

According to the study, if governments sold their gold immediately, rather then holding it, the
economic gain could come close to $370 billion.

Much of the benefit would accrue to the governments themselves in the form of additional revenue.
Gold consumers would also benefit but mining companies would lose out.

The study calculates that an immediate sale of all government gold stocks would push the gold price
down to $309 per ounce from an assumed $350. The gold price closed in London on Thursday at
about $342.50.

The paper acknowledges that there may be some advantages to governments holding gold, but it
argues that those advantages are eroding.

``The importance of gold as a possible future reserve asset, as part of a war chest ( in case of crisis ) ,
and as a strategic material has clearly diminished in recent years and will, in all likelihood, continue
to diminish,'' it says.

If the U.S. and other governments nevertheless were worried that they might lose out on such
advantages by selling their gold now, they could consider loaning it out instead, and gradually
disposing of it, according to the paper.

The study admits that there might be some difficulties in following such an approach. But it argues
that the potential benefits might well outweigh the costs.

The study was authored by Fed economist Dale Henderson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
student John Irons, University of Michigan professor Stephen Salant and Sebastian Thomas, a
research analyst at Miller, Anderson and Sherrerd.

This ominous report appeared on Yahoo Gold.

Thursday June 12 7:55 PM EDT

Fed-issued paper advocates government gold sales

WASHINGTON, June 12 ( Reuter ) - A new Federal Reserve study argues that the United States
and other governments should sell off their gold reserves to reap huge benefits for their economies.

``Government ownership of gold does not contribute directly to the ( general ) welfare,'' the
discussion paper, authored by a Fed economist and three other analysts, says.

The paper was issued by the central bank here but is the sole responsibility of the authors and
should not be seen as reflecting the views of the Fed's board.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is a long-time proponent of a return to the gold standard, although
his views are not widely shared at the central bank or generally among economists.

Governments hold some 1.11 billion ounces of gold. U.S. holdings alone amount to 262 million
ounces.

The Fed study comes as a number of governments are exploring ways to make better use of the
millions of ounces of gold they hold in reserves.

As part of its effort to participate in European monetary union, Germany is revaluing its gold
reserves. The International Monetary Fund may sell off some of its gold holdings to help finance a
lending program for poor nations.

According to the study, if governments sold their gold immediately, rather then holding it, the
economic gain could come close to $370 billion.

Much of the benefit would accrue to the governments themselves in the form of additional revenue.
Gold consumers would also benefit but mining companies would lose out.

The study calculates that an immediate sale of all government gold stocks would push the gold price
down to $309 per ounce from an assumed $350. The gold price closed in London on Thursday at
about $342.50.

The paper acknowledges that there may be some advantages to governments holding gold, but it
argues that those advantages are eroding.

``The importance of gold as a possible future reserve asset, as part of a war chest ( in case of crisis ) ,
and as a strategic material has clearly diminished in recent years and will, in all likelihood, continue
to diminish,'' it says.

If the U.S. and other governments nevertheless were worried that they might lose out on such
advantages by selling their gold now, they could consider loaning it out instead, and gradually
disposing of it, according to the paper.

The study admits that there might be some difficulties in following such an approach. But it argues
that the potential benefits might well outweigh the costs.

The study was authored by Fed economist Dale Henderson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
student John Irons, University of Michigan professor Stephen Salant and Sebastian Thomas, a
research analyst at Miller, Anderson and Sherrerd.

John Disney: Good have you back. Damn BLYDY is making my trigger finger itch. ............. Per this evening's post; I am reminded of your advice, on a like evening, when I was also given over to similar attacks upon "The Anointed". I did take it. The advice that is. As you say, it is a waste of valuable energy.

John Disney: Good have you back. Damn BLYDY is making my trigger finger itch. ............. Per this evening's post; I am reminded of your advice, on a like evening, when I was also given over to similar attacks upon "The Anointed". I did take it. The advice that is. As you say, it is a waste of valuable energy.

Earl -- Ahh, but you combine both style and substance so well! I don't believe that Barts' bandwidth, or readers eyes, will be particularly hurt by it! It's a fine learned art that all should strive to better themselves with, IMHO!!! You taking pupils?

Earl -- Ahh, but you combine both style and substance so well! I don't believe that Barts' bandwidth, or readers eyes, will be particularly hurt by it! It's a fine learned art that all should strive to better themselves with, IMHO!!! You taking pupils?

ACW: Post of the evening! Have to love it. No? .... Sell it or better yet lease it and never see gold or money again. Just another attempt to talk the gold market down. .... Probably will succeed too.

What would be most interesting is to know how just much the authors really believe, in what they are saying.

ACW: Post of the evening! Have to love it. No? .... Sell it or better yet lease it and never see gold or money again. Just another attempt to talk the gold market down. .... Probably will succeed too.

What would be most interesting is to know how just much the authors really believe, in what they are saying.

Eldo: You silver tongue devil. ... Remember the political commercial from a few years back: "Where's the beef?".

Eldo: You silver tongue devil. ... Remember the political commercial from a few years back: "Where's the beef?".

ACW: my only question is who would buy all of it? BT?

ACW: my only question is who would buy all of it? BT?

ACW -- Why do these 'studies' etc. always come out at the bottom of the markets? Seems like if one should be selling, it would be at the other 'end' of a market move! I call news like that a 'key' type indicator! The news might move the metal down very short term, though I wouldn't necessarily count on it. But should it do so, I'll be there buying at THE bottom!

ACW -- Why do these 'studies' etc. always come out at the bottom of the markets? Seems like if one should be selling, it would be at the other 'end' of a market move! I call news like that a 'key' type indicator! The news might move the metal down very short term, though I wouldn't necessarily count on it. But should it do so, I'll be there buying at THE bottom!

Earl -- You state: Style should differentiated from substance. As messenger from message. As important as a message is, I believe that HOW a messenger states it is at least as important. Probably more so! Maybe it's a good thing we all aren't Patrick Henrys as we might get tired of it, but given that we aren't, some are always needed! Talk about 'sending a message', whether it be in a court room or in an assembly hall! That man could command attention! And it wasn't that the people hadn't heard the message before. It's that their hearts and souls hadn't! That's the difference!

Earl -- You state: Style should differentiated from substance. As messenger from message. As important as a message is, I believe that HOW a messenger states it is at least as important. Probably more so! Maybe it's a good thing we all aren't Patrick Henrys as we might get tired of it, but given that we aren't, some are always needed! Talk about 'sending a message', whether it be in a court room or in an assembly hall! That man could command attention! And it wasn't that the people hadn't heard the message before. It's that their hearts and souls hadn't! That's the difference!

Earl -- An short addendum to my previous: That's where style 'becomes' substance!!! Thus, as long as humankind remains an emotional being for the most part, it may take a particular messenger to deliver a particular message.

Earl -- An short addendum to my previous: That's where style 'becomes' substance!!! Thus, as long as humankind remains an emotional being for the most part, it may take a particular messenger to deliver a particular message.

ACW-Good To Hear From You My Friend! - BUT; This nonsense is almost belly-laugh material, "The study was authored by Fed economist Dale Henderson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology student John Irons, University of Michigan professor Stephen Salant and Sebastian Thomas, a research analyst at Miller, Anderson and Sherrerd. "
Do these four or five people now control the World?"

ACW-Good To Hear From You My Friend! - BUT; This nonsense is almost belly-laugh material, "The study was authored by Fed economist Dale Henderson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology student John Irons, University of Michigan professor Stephen Salant and Sebastian Thomas, a research analyst at Miller, Anderson and Sherrerd. "
Do these four or five people now control the World?"

Eldo: Just a personal point of view but style should be the coating on the cod liver oil pill. It shouldn't diminish or distract from, what's inside. Only make it easier to 'get it down'. The style itself will generally reflect the stylist. Good or bad. .... Hardly a revelation, I suppose. But consider the expressive modes here. Even if someone were to post without a handle, I think it would be easy to recognize the source. Assuming, of course that it was more than a few words. Examples are both unnecessary and unwise. .... Where was I going with this???? See what I meant about 2 cents to 10 dollars? Everything after the first sentence was only embellishment. ..... The pillow calls.

Eldo: Just a personal point of view but style should be the coating on the cod liver oil pill. It shouldn't diminish or distract from, what's inside. Only make it easier to 'get it down'. The style itself will generally reflect the stylist. Good or bad. .... Hardly a revelation, I suppose. But consider the expressive modes here. Even if someone were to post without a handle, I think it would be easy to recognize the source. Assuming, of course that it was more than a few words. Examples are both unnecessary and unwise. .... Where was I going with this???? See what I meant about 2 cents to 10 dollars? Everything after the first sentence was only embellishment. ..... The pillow calls.

Eldo: While I understand, Amigo, I really do believe, more than I believe anything else, that we are all better served if we can separate the world of ideas from our emotions. A tough business for all but that is no reason to do less than our level best to avoid mixing the two.

Eldo: While I understand, Amigo, I really do believe, more than I believe anything else, that we are all better served if we can separate the world of ideas from our emotions. A tough business for all but that is no reason to do less than our level best to avoid mixing the two.

Mooney: It makes no difference. If they have their way, they will control ours. ....... ( :- ) )

Mooney: It makes no difference. If they have their way, they will control ours. ....... ( :- ) )

John Disney.....I look forward to your posts, you bring an insight to
this discussion group about South Africa, not only about gold but
about the social issues of South Africa and the attitudes that have
been so disruptive to South Africa. I do not agree with everything
you say but I will never ask others not to listen to you because I
disagree with what you believe.

John Disney.....I look forward to your posts, you bring an insight to
this discussion group about South Africa, not only about gold but
about the social issues of South Africa and the attitudes that have
been so disruptive to South Africa. I do not agree with everything
you say but I will never ask others not to listen to you because I
disagree with what you believe.

ACW: That one is enough to make Mr. Greenspan quit, with
such erudite advisor's, why would he want the job.

ACW: That one is enough to make Mr. Greenspan quit, with
such erudite advisor's, why would he want the job.

BERNIE - Stop and think about this.... If you had an opportunity to do something that would make you money, and you planned and planned and laid out your plan, then carefully implemented the plan's steps, threw in tens ( or hundreds ) of thousands of US Dollars, worked 80 hour weeks for 3 years straight, then measured the results, and adjusted the mixtures to maximize the results, and if these same results become the products we consumers purchase ( both services and hard goods ) , and you did this unhindered in any way, the result would be competition within your industry to develop less costly, more efficient ways to produce, thus lowering the price and increasing the quality of all consumer goods, right? And if an employer is unfair, workers can freely move to a competitor. Remember - employers must remain competetive in regards to workers, salespeople, secretaries, estimators, accountants, etc. ( or they'll seek employment where better conditions prevail ) , as well as remaining competitivley priced for the end consumer, so that the product is considered a bargain. This is not easy. In fact, we must not assume that most rich people amassed their wealth by inheritance or tom-foolery.
In fact, the rich people are being blamed for their wealth instead of congratulated, because they actually DID something constructive consistantly, and at a great cost. Compared to people like the Kennedys who amassed their wealth through daddy, who was a bootlegger during prohibition, businesses are the means by which we develop and maintain our standard of living.

Well, that's the was it's SUPPOSED to work. The problem just might be man himself. You know, that guy you may refer acidly to as "brother in law." He's the one for who "lazy" would be a compliment, "mooch" a quaint nickname, and "welcher" a person from Wales. He sells used cars. He once asked you for money for some hare-brained scheme, and after a lot of pressure - and to save face ( YOUR face viewed through your wife's eyes ) , you loaned him the money, but it became a losing proposition as soon as the first payment was overdue and you discovered the reason he wasn't returning your phone calls was because he'd run off to Las Vegas ( hooker in hand ) to invest your money on his new venture. And to make matters worse, your wife claims it was YOUR DECISION to loan him the money.

If you look toward Washington, you'll see that your brother in law moved there some years ago, and has graduated from used car salesman to bail bond collector to lawyer to deputy district attorney to district attorney to judge to supervisor to mayor to congressman to senator to vice president to..... and he's got his eye on whatever he can mooch off, and that means ANYTHING. Anything of value. So, even though there are SOME moochers running businesses who pollute or treat workers unfairly, the number of moochers in government would probably round off to be 100%. So it's easy for the moochers to ask for more. All the have to do is stir up the media about some "pertinent" issue to "raise the public's awareness" to attract funding. Talk about an art!

Anybody can see that the "riches" the rich enjoy is directly due to potential profits, and if you strip out some of the profits, who's gonna feel the pinch? You are, my friend. You have to work for a living, and you must buy food, transportation, etc.

Liberals treat a situation involving humans in a manner that demands a certain result, because that's how people SHOULD act. When in fact, you see that people do not follow the plan ( like welfare, for example ) . You fail to see that what we are doing DOES NOT WORK, so we throw money at it. Money we stole from those "rich" bastards, who probably ripped somebody off to get it, right? And, since a common definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting the same results, by that definition all liberals may possibly be insane.

So the lesson here is that the goods you seem to want to distribute amongst those "less fortunate" would not even exist without the freedom of those creative business people involved in creating a better product at a better price to go about their business unhindered by financial or coercive mafia ( legal governments ) interfering. Remember it is you who then pay more for goods of inferior quality, it is you who must accept less wages.

To the unaware, the arrangement of production and consumers seems confusing. Unbelievably, the government attempts to take credit for it's mere existance! As if a food or durable goods market and buyers in the absence of a government would not exist! Right.

So don't be so quick to reach out for someone else's goods. You might find if you get your brother in law to pass a law to collect a portion of those goods, they'll soon be priced higher, and of poorer quality.

So before you ask me to subsidize that which does not work, don't listen to brother in law[s excuses for more money, take a hard look at what might be happening, of you'll end up living in a deteriorating country that's no fun because God has left for greener pastures.

BERNIE - Stop and think about this.... If you had an opportunity to do something that would make you money, and you planned and planned and laid out your plan, then carefully implemented the plan's steps, threw in tens ( or hundreds ) of thousands of US Dollars, worked 80 hour weeks for 3 years straight, then measured the results, and adjusted the mixtures to maximize the results, and if these same results become the products we consumers purchase ( both services and hard goods ) , and you did this unhindered in any way, the result would be competition within your industry to develop less costly, more efficient ways to produce, thus lowering the price and increasing the quality of all consumer goods, right? And if an employer is unfair, workers can freely move to a competitor. Remember - employers must remain competetive in regards to workers, salespeople, secretaries, estimators, accountants, etc. ( or they'll seek employment where better conditions prevail ) , as well as remaining competitivley priced for the end consumer, so that the product is considered a bargain. This is not easy. In fact, we must not assume that most rich people amassed their wealth by inheritance or tom-foolery.
In fact, the rich people are being blamed for their wealth instead of congratulated, because they actually DID something constructive consistantly, and at a great cost. Compared to people like the Kennedys who amassed their wealth through daddy, who was a bootlegger during prohibition, businesses are the means by which we develop and maintain our standard of living.

Well, that's the was it's SUPPOSED to work. The problem just might be man himself. You know, that guy you may refer acidly to as "brother in law." He's the one for who "lazy" would be a compliment, "mooch" a quaint nickname, and "welcher" a person from Wales. He sells used cars. He once asked you for money for some hare-brained scheme, and after a lot of pressure - and to save face ( YOUR face viewed through your wife's eyes ) , you loaned him the money, but it became a losing proposition as soon as the first payment was overdue and you discovered the reason he wasn't returning your phone calls was because he'd run off to Las Vegas ( hooker in hand ) to invest your money on his new venture. And to make matters worse, your wife claims it was YOUR DECISION to loan him the money.

If you look toward Washington, you'll see that your brother in law moved there some years ago, and has graduated from used car salesman to bail bond collector to lawyer to deputy district attorney to district attorney to judge to supervisor to mayor to congressman to senator to vice president to..... and he's got his eye on whatever he can mooch off, and that means ANYTHING. Anything of value. So, even though there are SOME moochers running businesses who pollute or treat workers unfairly, the number of moochers in government would probably round off to be 100%. So it's easy for the moochers to ask for more. All the have to do is stir up the media about some "pertinent" issue to "raise the public's awareness" to attract funding. Talk about an art!

Anybody can see that the "riches" the rich enjoy is directly due to potential profits, and if you strip out some of the profits, who's gonna feel the pinch? You are, my friend. You have to work for a living, and you must buy food, transportation, etc.

Liberals treat a situation involving humans in a manner that demands a certain result, because that's how people SHOULD act. When in fact, you see that people do not follow the plan ( like welfare, for example ) . You fail to see that what we are doing DOES NOT WORK, so we throw money at it. Money we stole from those "rich" bastards, who probably ripped somebody off to get it, right? And, since a common definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting the same results, by that definition all liberals may possibly be insane.

So the lesson here is that the goods you seem to want to distribute amongst those "less fortunate" would not even exist without the freedom of those creative business people involved in creating a better product at a better price to go about their business unhindered by financial or coercive mafia ( legal governments ) interfering. Remember it is you who then pay more for goods of inferior quality, it is you who must accept less wages.

To the unaware, the arrangement of production and consumers seems confusing. Unbelievably, the government attempts to take credit for it's mere existance! As if a food or durable goods market and buyers in the absence of a government would not exist! Right.

So don't be so quick to reach out for someone else's goods. You might find if you get your brother in law to pass a law to collect a portion of those goods, they'll soon be priced higher, and of poorer quality.

So before you ask me to subsidize that which does not work, don't listen to brother in law[s excuses for more money, take a hard look at what might be happening, of you'll end up living in a deteriorating country that's no fun because God has left for greener pastures.

Correction to post: Definition of insanity; I meant expecting DIFFERENT results, ( not the same results ) .

Correction to post: Definition of insanity; I meant expecting DIFFERENT results, ( not the same results ) .

I'll finish out my financial assets series with the rough dollar amount at risk for each class. What better day to do it than when the dow soars yet again. At risk in a financial panic and depression are: stocks 11T, us treasuries 6T, M3 5T, MMMF 1T, Corporate Bonds 3T. The total at risk, about 26 trillion dollars is an amount about about equal to 75 years of personal saving. About three generations of personal savings for the whole country gone into a black hole. All the riots, blame, recrimination, commissions, reforms, new laws, new political parties, and new governments that perhaps will come will be powerless to bring back a single penny.

We are not considering as lost the implied future obligations of government such as social security. These probably total about 10 trillion. Also we are not considering the price reductions of real assets as this should not result in net real losses for society. Although there will be vast losses for individuals who are leveraged ( mortgages ect. ) .

Actually this 26 trillion dollars represents resources which have been long ago consumed. What will vanish into the black hole is hope. Hope that they will ever be repaid in real terms. The largest con game in the history of the world will stand naked before the billions of its victims. No one alive then will ever again trust paper promises, or the men, institutions and governments that make them.



TOTAL 22,000,000,000,000.00

I'll finish out my financial assets series with the rough dollar amount at risk for each class. What better day to do it than when the dow soars yet again. At risk in a financial panic and depression are: stocks 11T, us treasuries 6T, M3 5T, MMMF 1T, Corporate Bonds 3T. The total at risk, about 26 trillion dollars is an amount about about equal to 75 years of personal saving. About three generations of personal savings for the whole country gone into a black hole. All the riots, blame, recrimination, commissions, reforms, new laws, new political parties, and new governments that perhaps will come will be powerless to bring back a single penny.

We are not considering as lost the implied future obligations of government such as social security. These probably total about 10 trillion. Also we are not considering the price reductions of real assets as this should not result in net real losses for society. Although there will be vast losses for individuals who are leveraged ( mortgages ect. ) .

Actually this 26 trillion dollars represents resources which have been long ago consumed. What will vanish into the black hole is hope. Hope that they will ever be repaid in real terms. The largest con game in the history of the world will stand naked before the billions of its victims. No one alive then will ever again trust paper promises, or the men, institutions and governments that make them.



TOTAL 22,000,000,000,000.00

ACW:

Thanks for telling us about that Federal Reserve study advocating that the CBs sell all their gold! This is the kind of thing that comes out at or close to secular troughs. Reinforces my conviction that the gold bear will reverse before long. The ensuing bull will have a tremendous wall of worry to climb.

Still think the catalyst for this reversal will be the final end of the ongoing bull market in financial assets -- probably this summer. And once the next gold bull begins, all the CB selling in the world will not be able to stop it.

ACW:

Thanks for telling us about that Federal Reserve study advocating that the CBs sell all their gold! This is the kind of thing that comes out at or close to secular troughs. Reinforces my conviction that the gold bear will reverse before long. The ensuing bull will have a tremendous wall of worry to climb.

Still think the catalyst for this reversal will be the final end of the ongoing bull market in financial assets -- probably this summer. And once the next gold bull begins, all the CB selling in the world will not be able to stop it.

The Netcom news service quoting someone saying that because the gold and silver markets have not responded to the recent dollar decline that they will soon pay. I presume that the writer anticipates sharply lower prices. Maybe this news is not news to this group. My feeling is that we will have more of the same today with gold in the 342 area and silver 4.74 or so. As I've said before I don't look for gold to go below 340 for any period of time. So, in the markets there isn't much to write home about. That is why I write here instead. Now for the story that amused me.

The old Jewish man was walking on the beach with his only
grandson, when a giant wave crashes onshore, sweeping the boy
out to sea. The man looks up to the heavens and says, "Oh
Lord, this is my only grandson, how can you take him away
from me like this? My son will not understand. My daughter-
in-law will die from grief."

Another wave comes by, and deposits the boy at the old
man's feet. The grandfather looks to the heavens again and
says, "He had a hat!"

The Netcom news service quoting someone saying that because the gold and silver markets have not responded to the recent dollar decline that they will soon pay. I presume that the writer anticipates sharply lower prices. Maybe this news is not news to this group. My feeling is that we will have more of the same today with gold in the 342 area and silver 4.74 or so. As I've said before I don't look for gold to go below 340 for any period of time. So, in the markets there isn't much to write home about. That is why I write here instead. Now for the story that amused me.

The old Jewish man was walking on the beach with his only
grandson, when a giant wave crashes onshore, sweeping the boy
out to sea. The man looks up to the heavens and says, "Oh
Lord, this is my only grandson, how can you take him away
from me like this? My son will not understand. My daughter-
in-law will die from grief."

Another wave comes by, and deposits the boy at the old
man's feet. The grandfather looks to the heavens again and
says, "He had a hat!"

George S. Cole: What are the indications of a top? Are you looking for a steadily declining ratio of gainers to losers, several weeks of bad news? I'm interested, because I got faked out pretty badly in April, when the "correction" stopped abruptly at 9.9%.

George S. Cole: What are the indications of a top? Are you looking for a steadily declining ratio of gainers to losers, several weeks of bad news? I'm interested, because I got faked out pretty badly in April, when the "correction" stopped abruptly at 9.9%.

Is all this negativism on Gold in the published media ie ACW contrived or just symptomatic of what is said when a market is so pathetic. If it is contrived I believe they made a grave error. If as, ACW report states, the Govts sold all their gold today it would drive the price to 309 that is not much risk for such an event. Once it was done who would be left to sell.
Down to 309 is nothing/if thats all the govs can do in extremis then someone should realize gold is a bargain at these prices.

Is all this negativism on Gold in the published media ie ACW contrived or just symptomatic of what is said when a market is so pathetic. If it is contrived I believe they made a grave error. If as, ACW report states, the Govts sold all their gold today it would drive the price to 309 that is not much risk for such an event. Once it was done who would be left to sell.
Down to 309 is nothing/if thats all the govs can do in extremis then someone should realize gold is a bargain at these prices.

Good Morning Tortfeasor -- How much bleaker can it get for the metals? The stock market looks to be in a blow-off mode here. Looks like panic buying with no one selling. I still have the same question, "Sell? To whoooooom?" Techs looked weak, blue chips strong. Looks like money sloshing around the bucket, from one side to the other. Short term, that's not good for the metals, but then again, the thirty year bond chart is filling in the triangle nicely! I never would've believed the pattern would be 'filled' out. I thought the economic news was too strong, but here we are, bond market rally... Go figure! I expected oil to fall, and it did, but the oil stocks and XOI are up! Again, go figure. I was planning a short of the XOI, paper it traded first ( ! ) . Idea has been nixed for the time being. Just sitting and watching now. HUI options, well, I've begun digging new plots in the cemetary. Business has been too good there lately. I've got plenty of space left, my rates are cheap! Need to bury anything ( paper I mean ) ? :- ) ) :- ) )

Good Morning Tortfeasor -- How much bleaker can it get for the metals? The stock market looks to be in a blow-off mode here. Looks like panic buying with no one selling. I still have the same question, "Sell? To whoooooom?" Techs looked weak, blue chips strong. Looks like money sloshing around the bucket, from one side to the other. Short term, that's not good for the metals, but then again, the thirty year bond chart is filling in the triangle nicely! I never would've believed the pattern would be 'filled' out. I thought the economic news was too strong, but here we are, bond market rally... Go figure! I expected oil to fall, and it did, but the oil stocks and XOI are up! Again, go figure. I was planning a short of the XOI, paper it traded first ( ! ) . Idea has been nixed for the time being. Just sitting and watching now. HUI options, well, I've begun digging new plots in the cemetary. Business has been too good there lately. I've got plenty of space left, my rates are cheap! Need to bury anything ( paper I mean ) ? :- ) ) :- ) )

My prediction for PPI numbers:
From the honest folks in Wash DC, who wouldn't mind paying lower interest rates on the national debt, --- DOWN 0.5%. Gold's reaction--- ( listen to ".wav" file )

My prediction for PPI numbers:
From the honest folks in Wash DC, who wouldn't mind paying lower interest rates on the national debt, --- DOWN 0.5%. Gold's reaction--- ( listen to ".wav" file )

My prediction for PPI numbers:
From the honest folks in Wash DC, who wouldn't mind paying lower interest rates on the national debt, --- DOWN 0.5%. Gold's reaction--- ( listen to ".wav" file )

My prediction for PPI numbers:
From the honest folks in Wash DC, who wouldn't mind paying lower interest rates on the national debt, --- DOWN 0.5%. Gold's reaction--- ( listen to ".wav" file )

My prediction for PPI numbers:
From the honest folks in Wash DC, who wouldn't mind paying lower interest rates on the national debt, --- DOWN 0.5%. Gold's reaction--- ( listen to ".wav" file )

My prediction for PPI numbers:
From the honest folks in Wash DC, who wouldn't mind paying lower interest rates on the national debt, --- DOWN 0.5%. Gold's reaction--- ( listen to ".wav" file )

Sorry about the triple post. I've got a twitchy "touch pad" this morning.

Sorry about the triple post. I've got a twitchy "touch pad" this morning.

Panda: The economy is weak and any strength is the result of an unsustainable credit expansion. When the economy breaks down it will mean higher and uncontrollable deficits and therefore higher rates and a lower dollar and a problem for stks. A first for the US a "virtuous" cycle of rising rates combined with depression. Solution new currency backed with gold with gold at a price of 5k per troy oz. They mine gold like crazy and prosperity returns. We will buy the Dow index when it reaches its final low of 1300.

Panda: The economy is weak and any strength is the result of an unsustainable credit expansion. When the economy breaks down it will mean higher and uncontrollable deficits and therefore higher rates and a lower dollar and a problem for stks. A first for the US a "virtuous" cycle of rising rates combined with depression. Solution new currency backed with gold with gold at a price of 5k per troy oz. They mine gold like crazy and prosperity returns. We will buy the Dow index when it reaches its final low of 1300.

WW -- You will truly be able to buy the Dow 'index' as licenses for options and futures on the index have been granted! I guess even Dow Jones needs the money.... :- ) )

FWIW I came across a story this morning on Japanese bankruptcies soaring..... Don't Worry, :- ) Be happy !- ) )

WW -- You will truly be able to buy the Dow 'index' as licenses for options and futures on the index have been granted! I guess even Dow Jones needs the money.... :- ) )

FWIW I came across a story this morning on Japanese bankruptcies soaring..... Don't Worry, :- ) Be happy !- ) )

Ford? China? Catalytic converters made of 'rare' materials that that China is 'rich' in?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/13/f_gm_vlka_1.html

Ford? China? Catalytic converters made of 'rare' materials that that China is 'rich' in?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/13/f_gm_vlka_1.html

Producer price index:down .3% and core rate down .3% ..Much weaker than expected...Bond up 13 ticks..

Producer price index:down .3% and core rate down .3% ..Much weaker than expected...Bond up 13 ticks..

Apropos all the recent social commentary on this site, from an actual newspaper contest where young entrants were asked to imitate "Deep Thoughts by Jack Handey." - - -
Once, I wept for I had no shoes. Then I came upon a man who had no feet. So I took his shoes. I mean, it's not like he really needed them, right? --Age 15

I'd say this kid has a future working for the government.

Apropos all the recent social commentary on this site, from an actual newspaper contest where young entrants were asked to imitate "Deep Thoughts by Jack Handey." - - -
Once, I wept for I had no shoes. Then I came upon a man who had no feet. So I took his shoes. I mean, it's not like he really needed them, right? --Age 15

I'd say this kid has a future working for the government.

Hello All:

I've been enjoying all the comments on Kitco's chat group. I have
2 observations.
1. I've been hearing about a crash for the last 5 years. While I
don't disagree with this line of thinking, this could possibly go on
( no crash ) for quite awhile ( the Roman Empire took many centuries to
crash.
2. If one does feel a crash is near, what should one do besides
buying gold/silver coins? I've perused some of the Survivalist web
sites and most seem to recommend guns and dried foods. They seem to think that gold won't be of use until after the crash subsides and in
the short run, the former would be better than the latter.
Any comments/suggestions would be appreciated.
Thanks

Hello All:

I've been enjoying all the comments on Kitco's chat group. I have
2 observations.
1. I've been hearing about a crash for the last 5 years. While I
don't disagree with this line of thinking, this could possibly go on
( no crash ) for quite awhile ( the Roman Empire took many centuries to
crash.
2. If one does feel a crash is near, what should one do besides
buying gold/silver coins? I've perused some of the Survivalist web
sites and most seem to recommend guns and dried foods. They seem to think that gold won't be of use until after the crash subsides and in
the short run, the former would be better than the latter.
Any comments/suggestions would be appreciated.
Thanks

CRASH: I've heard that for almost the entire 13 year bull market and it's mostly sour grapes by those who missed out on makin some money...In the past I've lived without electricity for 7 years and try and be as independant of "the system" as possible by providing my own heat source..
growin most of my food ..ect..ect...gold nuggets don't taste good! Self sufficentcy is the ANSWER and not some pretty prose!

CRASH: I've heard that for almost the entire 13 year bull market and it's mostly sour grapes by those who missed out on makin some money...In the past I've lived without electricity for 7 years and try and be as independant of "the system" as possible by providing my own heat source..
growin most of my food ..ect..ect...gold nuggets don't taste good! Self sufficentcy is the ANSWER and not some pretty prose!

Fibo: Absolutely right on your XAU call. We are going up. What will not go down has to go up. Yesterday proved that . It is funny that this site is very negative on the metals and gold shares. The charts on the stocks show that the worst is over. This is an opportunity to buy them real cheap. I follow the Toronto Gold Index which sits in the neighbourhood of 9300. The high was at 13000. We will go above that high to finish this up cycle, that is an increase of 40 %. I like that number.

Fibo: Absolutely right on your XAU call. We are going up. What will not go down has to go up. Yesterday proved that . It is funny that this site is very negative on the metals and gold shares. The charts on the stocks show that the worst is over. This is an opportunity to buy them real cheap. I follow the Toronto Gold Index which sits in the neighbourhood of 9300. The high was at 13000. We will go above that high to finish this up cycle, that is an increase of 40 %. I like that number.

US APRIL NONDURABLE STK/SALES RATIO AT 1.20; MARCH 1.18.
US APRIL RETAIL DURABLE STK/SALES RATIO AT 1.96; MARCH 1.92.
US MAY PRODUCER CAPITAL EQUIPMENT PRICES DOWN 0.2%.
US MAY PRODUCER PRICES FOR FISH, FRUIT UP 7.9%.
US MAY FOOD PRODUCER PRICES UP 0.4%; CRUDE PETROLEUM +7.3%.
US MAY PRODUCER FUEL OIL PRICES UP 2.2%; CARS DOWN 1.6%.
US APRIL INVENTORY/SALES RATIO UNCHANGED AT 1.37.
US APRIL RETAILER INVENTORIES UP 0.8%; AUTOS UP 1.2%.
US APRIL BUSINESS INVENTORIES UP 0.3%; SALES UP 0.3%.
US MAY ENERGY PRODUCER PRICES DOWN 2.1%; GASOLINE -7.1%.
US MAY CRUDE PRODCUCER PRICES UP 1.3%; CORE UP 1.2%.
US MAY PRODUCER INTERMEDIATE PRICES DOWN -0.2%; CORE UNCHG.
US MAY PRODUCER PRICES DOWN 0.3%, CORE RATE DOWN 0.3%.
APRIL BUSINESS INVENTORIES UP 0.3%, MARCH REVISED TO +0.2%.
MAY PPI FALLS 0.3%, EX. FOOD & ENERGY FALLS 0.3%.

US APRIL NONDURABLE STK/SALES RATIO AT 1.20; MARCH 1.18.
US APRIL RETAIL DURABLE STK/SALES RATIO AT 1.96; MARCH 1.92.
US MAY PRODUCER CAPITAL EQUIPMENT PRICES DOWN 0.2%.
US MAY PRODUCER PRICES FOR FISH, FRUIT UP 7.9%.
US MAY FOOD PRODUCER PRICES UP 0.4%; CRUDE PETROLEUM +7.3%.
US MAY PRODUCER FUEL OIL PRICES UP 2.2%; CARS DOWN 1.6%.
US APRIL INVENTORY/SALES RATIO UNCHANGED AT 1.37.
US APRIL RETAILER INVENTORIES UP 0.8%; AUTOS UP 1.2%.
US APRIL BUSINESS INVENTORIES UP 0.3%; SALES UP 0.3%.
US MAY ENERGY PRODUCER PRICES DOWN 2.1%; GASOLINE -7.1%.
US MAY CRUDE PRODCUCER PRICES UP 1.3%; CORE UP 1.2%.
US MAY PRODUCER INTERMEDIATE PRICES DOWN -0.2%; CORE UNCHG.
US MAY PRODUCER PRICES DOWN 0.3%, CORE RATE DOWN 0.3%.
APRIL BUSINESS INVENTORIES UP 0.3%, MARCH REVISED TO +0.2%.
MAY PPI FALLS 0.3%, EX. FOOD & ENERGY FALLS 0.3%.

Eldorado: A Ponzi Scheme requires confidence. Once confidence is broken, Western finances will completely fall apart -- because they are so grossly over-extended. A stock crash and an economic contraction are the events likely to break confidence.

Eldorado: A Ponzi Scheme requires confidence. Once confidence is broken, Western finances will completely fall apart -- because they are so grossly over-extended. A stock crash and an economic contraction are the events likely to break confidence.

John Disney: Well said at 00:31

John Disney: Well said at 00:31

Panda: I'm still tryin to take all that in....S+P futures up 2.25..

Panda: I'm still tryin to take all that in....S+P futures up 2.25..

WW: You hit the nail on the head -- your 8:12 posting. One day soon, investors will interpret declining retail sales for what they indicate -- contraction and economic decline.

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

WW: You hit the nail on the head -- your 8:12 posting. One day soon, investors will interpret declining retail sales for what they indicate -- contraction and economic decline.

ACW : I for one am in favor of CBs selling all of their gold reserves. The price of gold may fall to $309, but from then on the gold market would finally be freed from the uncertainities periodically and purposefully introduced by the CBs.

ACW : I for one am in favor of CBs selling all of their gold reserves. The price of gold may fall to $309, but from then on the gold market would finally be freed from the uncertainities periodically and purposefully introduced by the CBs.

To the Baby Boomers who think that they will collect Soc. Sec./Medicare in the next century - I have news for you. It ain't going to happen! Being at the trail end of the BB generation, I know I won't see a dime of it, and have planned accordingly. My personal IRA is in the physical metals, all bought with after-tax monies and are "off-the-books" so don't bother to try to find it, tax it, confiscate it or otherwise reapportion it. By the turn of the century, there WILL be a tax revolt, the kind of which amerika has not seen for centuries. I refuse to pay for your largess and stupidity and lack of saving for retirement. The 13ers generation ( Gen X'ers ) talk among themselves about how their taxes keep on increasing, and the few benifits that they are receiving are declining daily. Being on the "cusp" of the two generations, I tend to agree with the 13ers.

You boomers are all alike - "Do as I say, not as I did" won't fly for to much longer. The tax rates that you have paid are less than half of what we are paying. Do you really think that this will continue forever? Don't bet your Blue Chip Stocks on it!

The 13ers know what is in store for the future of the economy, and are quietly saving for the inevitable meltdown. Alot of this savings can not be measured...

Do you really think that you are going to sell that house for a 300% markup? To whom may I ask? Everything that your generation has gotten into, turns to bust when you are done with it. Talk about herd mentality! Hey, check out that new investment opportunity over there, yea, by the cliff. You all have piled into stocks over the last 5 years and bid up the prices to unsustainable levels. In order to pull out your profits, just who are you going to sell that paper to? When the herd decides to get out, and try to, that inverted pyramid will come crashing down upon you all. Only the early sellers will come out unscathed, meaning 90% will eat it big time.

You lack any real morals, and believe that you will be able to stick it to the next generation when it comes time to pay all of your hospital bills. There simply are not enough younger workers for that to happen. People quote numbers of 60 to 80% taxes for the 13ers in the next century, for that will be what is needed to insure that you get "whats due you". Good luck in collecting it! No, the only way that the Jack-Booted thugs can continue those ponzi ploys is by passing new taxes on all that IRA and 401K money out there. First a one time 15% tax, then the next year another tax and on and on it will go...

I agree with Steve Puetz that the only tried and tested way of preserving ones wealth is via the precious metals. Cash is good for the short run, but will become worthless by 2005.

RJ may have it right when it comes to "investing", at least during the past 2 decades. That may change soon...

To those that have physical metals, don't sell all of it when the next bull comes along. You'll probably be selling at the first of several uplegs, and will have to try to convince your offspring later on why they should take you in and care for you and support you 'cause you sold out to early and are now broke. Well, don't expect it, after all, you ignored us while we were growing up, when we needed a parent for support or just a pat on the back. The majority of moms and dads work full time for that elusive dollar. For that opportunity to get into that next great investment mania and strike it rich. Yea, right, you AND everyone else...

As to the $5 and $10 moves in gold, it's good for short term trading of the gold stocks and fun in trying to time the markets. But these up and down moves mean little in the long run as to the value of the holdings of the physicals. The physicals are the only true long term investment that there is. And this will never change.

Ok, hit me with your best stuff, try to convince me that you WILL be collecting all that money that is "due you".

To the Baby Boomers who think that they will collect Soc. Sec./Medicare in the next century - I have news for you. It ain't going to happen! Being at the trail end of the BB generation, I know I won't see a dime of it, and have planned accordingly. My personal IRA is in the physical metals, all bought with after-tax monies and are "off-the-books" so don't bother to try to find it, tax it, confiscate it or otherwise reapportion it. By the turn of the century, there WILL be a tax revolt, the kind of which amerika has not seen for centuries. I refuse to pay for your largess and stupidity and lack of saving for retirement. The 13ers generation ( Gen X'ers ) talk among themselves about how their taxes keep on increasing, and the few benifits that they are receiving are declining daily. Being on the "cusp" of the two generations, I tend to agree with the 13ers.

You boomers are all alike - "Do as I say, not as I did" won't fly for to much longer. The tax rates that you have paid are less than half of what we are paying. Do you really think that this will continue forever? Don't bet your Blue Chip Stocks on it!

The 13ers know what is in store for the future of the economy, and are quietly saving for the inevitable meltdown. Alot of this savings can not be measured...

Do you really think that you are going to sell that house for a 300% markup? To whom may I ask? Everything that your generation has gotten into, turns to bust when you are done with it. Talk about herd mentality! Hey, check out that new investment opportunity over there, yea, by the cliff. You all have piled into stocks over the last 5 years and bid up the prices to unsustainable levels. In order to pull out your profits, just who are you going to sell that paper to? When the herd decides to get out, and try to, that inverted pyramid will come crashing down upon you all. Only the early sellers will come out unscathed, meaning 90% will eat it big time.

You lack any real morals, and believe that you will be able to stick it to the next generation when it comes time to pay all of your hospital bills. There simply are not enough younger workers for that to happen. People quote numbers of 60 to 80% taxes for the 13ers in the next century, for that will be what is needed to insure that you get "whats due you". Good luck in collecting it! No, the only way that the Jack-Booted thugs can continue those ponzi ploys is by passing new taxes on all that IRA and 401K money out there. First a one time 15% tax, then the next year another tax and on and on it will go...

I agree with Steve Puetz that the only tried and tested way of preserving ones wealth is via the precious metals. Cash is good for the short run, but will become worthless by 2005.

RJ may have it right when it comes to "investing", at least during the past 2 decades. That may change soon...

To those that have physical metals, don't sell all of it when the next bull comes along. You'll probably be selling at the first of several uplegs, and will have to try to convince your offspring later on why they should take you in and care for you and support you 'cause you sold out to early and are now broke. Well, don't expect it, after all, you ignored us while we were growing up, when we needed a parent for support or just a pat on the back. The majority of moms and dads work full time for that elusive dollar. For that opportunity to get into that next great investment mania and strike it rich. Yea, right, you AND everyone else...

As to the $5 and $10 moves in gold, it's good for short term trading of the gold stocks and fun in trying to time the markets. But these up and down moves mean little in the long run as to the value of the holdings of the physicals. The physicals are the only true long term investment that there is. And this will never change.

Ok, hit me with your best stuff, try to convince me that you WILL be collecting all that money that is "due you".

Long term lease rates??? 'Tight' cash markets???

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/13/y0023_2.html

Long term lease rates??? 'Tight' cash markets???

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/13/y0023_2.html

Long Bond at 6.717, wow.... 6.6% ??? Dow up !% even the HUI is up!

Long Bond at 6.717, wow.... 6.6% ??? Dow up !% even the HUI is up!

Monetary Realist -- You said a mouthful! I agree with all of it except one thing. If/when currency really does become worthless, or very nearly so, it certainly won't do one anygood in parting with their metals for it. Not unless there is a virtual guarantee that one can by it all back, plus a lot more, at a lower price! IMHO.

Monetary Realist -- You said a mouthful! I agree with all of it except one thing. If/when currency really does become worthless, or very nearly so, it certainly won't do one anygood in parting with their metals for it. Not unless there is a virtual guarantee that one can by it all back, plus a lot more, at a lower price! IMHO.

Dashing & Flamboyant CNBC Financial Celebrity shares an encyclopedia of market insights on stocks, oil and T-bonds in Inger Letter Forecast - Click RELOAD at Gold Digest:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html

Dashing & Flamboyant CNBC Financial Celebrity shares an encyclopedia of market insights on stocks, oil and T-bonds in Inger Letter Forecast - Click RELOAD at Gold Digest:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html

Somewhat interesting interview and Q+A. Market crash? What would cause it? Read the last Q&A for his thoughts on gold.


http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/newsroom/CHATQA.html?source=core/dbc

Somewhat interesting interview and Q+A. Market crash? What would cause it? Read the last Q&A for his thoughts on gold.


http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/newsroom/CHATQA.html?source=core/dbc

bw: Once again, your view is not only compelling but chilling. No matter how this thing shakes out. Our lives will not be the same again. IMO.

bw: Once again, your view is not only compelling but chilling. No matter how this thing shakes out. Our lives will not be the same again. IMO.

Speed:

My expectation of a market top this summer is based upon the observation that each leg of this bull market has lasted about half as long as the previous leg. And bull markets generally have just 3 legs. Leg #1: November 1985-May 1986 ( about 18 months ) . Leg #2: July 1996-March 1997 ( about 9 months ) .

The current leg began in mid-April and would be expected to last about 4.5 months. But the DOW rally has been so powerful that something between 3 and 4 months seems the best bet.

Speed:

My expectation of a market top this summer is based upon the observation that each leg of this bull market has lasted about half as long as the previous leg. And bull markets generally have just 3 legs. Leg #1: November 1985-May 1986 ( about 18 months ) . Leg #2: July 1996-March 1997 ( about 9 months ) .

The current leg began in mid-April and would be expected to last about 4.5 months. But the DOW rally has been so powerful that something between 3 and 4 months seems the best bet.

George Cole: Gold appears unconcerned about what should be negative news this morning. Both ACW's overnite report and the inflation numbers. Does that constitute the placement of an 'X' in the positive column?

George Cole: Gold appears unconcerned about what should be negative news this morning. Both ACW's overnite report and the inflation numbers. Does that constitute the placement of an 'X' in the positive column?

WW: How did you arrive at a figure of $309 for a low, should the CB's disgorge their horde? Somehow, it seems to me, to be one of those imponderables. .... Not that it is likely in the first place. The central banks may be collosally foolish but I don't think they are monumentally stupid.

WW: How did you arrive at a figure of $309 for a low, should the CB's disgorge their horde? Somehow, it seems to me, to be one of those imponderables. .... Not that it is likely in the first place. The central banks may be collosally foolish but I don't think they are monumentally stupid.

George S. Cole -- Fifteen days of .7% average gains would put us at Dow ~8550.

Earl -- Take a peek at the DBC URL below.

George S. Cole -- Fifteen days of .7% average gains would put us at Dow ~8550.

Earl -- Take a peek at the DBC URL below.

Glenn: How could you be so wrong with that April call on the DOW? Very likely, you will be off by 1000 before the end of June. ...... ( :- ) )

Glenn: How could you be so wrong with that April call on the DOW? Very likely, you will be off by 1000 before the end of June. ...... ( :- ) )

Earl: As you know I place great emphasis on market reaction to news. Gold's ability to hold this morning in the face of proposals for huge CB sales is enxouraging. But the yellow stuff will have to continue to ignore bad news for awhile in order to declare the bear dead. Also we want to see it go up on good news and STAY UP. This hasn't happenned in quite some time.


Lots of new era talk on Wall Street now. The latest investment paradigm asserts that the link between inflation and economic growth has been permanently severed. We can have strong growth forever with very little inflation; hence no need for the Fed to tighten in the foreseeable future. And recessions won't happen if the Fed doesn't have to turn the screws. Of course this is all bunk; but the financial community needs a rational for the ongoing market excesses. Reminds me of Irving Fisher's new era of permanent prosperity talk in the 1920s.

Earl: As you know I place great emphasis on market reaction to news. Gold's ability to hold this morning in the face of proposals for huge CB sales is enxouraging. But the yellow stuff will have to continue to ignore bad news for awhile in order to declare the bear dead. Also we want to see it go up on good news and STAY UP. This hasn't happenned in quite some time.


Lots of new era talk on Wall Street now. The latest investment paradigm asserts that the link between inflation and economic growth has been permanently severed. We can have strong growth forever with very little inflation; hence no need for the Fed to tighten in the foreseeable future. And recessions won't happen if the Fed doesn't have to turn the screws. Of course this is all bunk; but the financial community needs a rational for the ongoing market excesses. Reminds me of Irving Fisher's new era of permanent prosperity talk in the 1920s.

TEd:The option of selfsufficiency is only open to a very
select few; those in good health and a spot of land, etc.
Civilation, as we know it, can not revert to tribal form,
vis-a-vie, the American indian. I think you get my drift
without further description. We all like our comforts and
have grown weak as a result. It is tough to follow
the rules that
result in a healthy life style, as well you know. Cheers:-}}

ALL: If the dollar is getting weaker and can buy less gold
for each $, why doesn't the price of gold increase? Also,
if the CB don't think gold is worth anything why don't they
set it out in a field someplace in Brooklyn or Kentucky and
guard it with a fence? There is a lot of bull being spread
around. Next thing we'll hear from MIT is that balls don't
bounce. Geezzz.

TEd:The option of selfsufficiency is only open to a very
select few; those in good health and a spot of land, etc.
Civilation, as we know it, can not revert to tribal form,
vis-a-vie, the American indian. I think you get my drift
without further description. We all like our comforts and
have grown weak as a result. It is tough to follow
the rules that
result in a healthy life style, as well you know. Cheers:-}}

ALL: If the dollar is getting weaker and can buy less gold
for each $, why doesn't the price of gold increase? Also,
if the CB don't think gold is worth anything why don't they
set it out in a field someplace in Brooklyn or Kentucky and
guard it with a fence? There is a lot of bull being spread
around. Next thing we'll hear from MIT is that balls don't
bounce. Geezzz.

Earl:

You write nice.

My musings last night, with as you put it so well, 'gold bug solidarity' were not a call to arms. I am very pleased with the level of rational and most importantly civil discourse which now is a mainstay here at Kitco. Remembering back to the more combative days, I do not relish a return to the past. My observation was purely what one might call one those semi-useful anecdotal type indicators.

IMHO the best observation that WW has offered to date is 'news follows price'. We have seen a beautiful example of this in the PGM markets as now everyone 'knows' why the price is high. And there are no shortage of commentators willing to explain. With respect to gold, I realize that Kitco and its participants and lurkers are but a tiny blip in the market, however they do represent a group that by all rights should have an enormous positive bias towards the glittery stuff. There is strong reason to believe that they are at least a little representative of those who would normally be gold buyers and holders. That this group should be willing to embrace the 'reason' ( the news ) for why gold has gone down and appears dead in the water at best, is telling. People do not embrace an alternative explanation when it runs directly counter to an investment stance that they have taken. We all talk our book. To me this is clear evidence that the Kitco book is not nearly as long as it used to be. When the last of bulls has been converted, the selling is over. This does not mean that the price will now take off like a rocket, but it does mean that there is very, very little risk left on the downside. The primary objective for investing is to get the reward / risk ratio as high as possible. The easiest way to do it is to get the denominator to approach zero. We are asymptotically approaching.

Earl:

You write nice.

My musings last night, with as you put it so well, 'gold bug solidarity' were not a call to arms. I am very pleased with the level of rational and most importantly civil discourse which now is a mainstay here at Kitco. Remembering back to the more combative days, I do not relish a return to the past. My observation was purely what one might call one those semi-useful anecdotal type indicators.

IMHO the best observation that WW has offered to date is 'news follows price'. We have seen a beautiful example of this in the PGM markets as now everyone 'knows' why the price is high. And there are no shortage of commentators willing to explain. With respect to gold, I realize that Kitco and its participants and lurkers are but a tiny blip in the market, however they do represent a group that by all rights should have an enormous positive bias towards the glittery stuff. There is strong reason to believe that they are at least a little representative of those who would normally be gold buyers and holders. That this group should be willing to embrace the 'reason' ( the news ) for why gold has gone down and appears dead in the water at best, is telling. People do not embrace an alternative explanation when it runs directly counter to an investment stance that they have taken. We all talk our book. To me this is clear evidence that the Kitco book is not nearly as long as it used to be. When the last of bulls has been converted, the selling is over. This does not mean that the price will now take off like a rocket, but it does mean that there is very, very little risk left on the downside. The primary objective for investing is to get the reward / risk ratio as high as possible. The easiest way to do it is to get the denominator to approach zero. We are asymptotically approaching.

George Cole: Agreed. In the meantime the financial world is providing us a show, worth far more than the price of admission. The denouement is so fascinating to watch I have decided to unmute CNBC. Hell, I may even get some popcorn. .. ( :- ) )

George Cole: Agreed. In the meantime the financial world is providing us a show, worth far more than the price of admission. The denouement is so fascinating to watch I have decided to unmute CNBC. Hell, I may even get some popcorn. .. ( :- ) )

D.A.: Thanks. I'm sure you realize that my comments were intended to aid the course of open dialogue, with a minimum of rancor. ...... BTW. Your comments included use of a word seldom seen outside of a calculus text. Asymptote. ..... ( a curve that approaches a straight line but never touches it ) . Now it's available for general use.

D.A.: Thanks. I'm sure you realize that my comments were intended to aid the course of open dialogue, with a minimum of rancor. ...... BTW. Your comments included use of a word seldom seen outside of a calculus text. Asymptote. ..... ( a curve that approaches a straight line but never touches it ) . Now it's available for general use.

Panda, if I were in emergency care I would not want to see this gold chart on my heart monitor. All of you forebearing and foreboding goldbugs need a little levity to get you through the doldrums of this day. Hi, Ted, forgot to wish you good morning but this will have to do.
Here's the additional story.

Two nuns are traveling through Europe in their car. They get to
Transylvania and are stopped at a traffic light. Suddenly, a diminutive
Dracula jumps onto the hood of the car and hisses through the windshield.

"Quick, quick!!" shouts the first nun, "What shall I do?"

"Turn the windshield wipers on, that will get rid of the abomination,"
says the second.

She switches them on, knocking Dracula about, but he clings on and hisses
again at the nuns.

"What shall I do now?" shouts the first nun.

"Switch on the windshield washer. I filled it up with Holy Water in the
Vatican, " says the second.

Dracula steams as the water burns his skin, but he clings on and hisses
again at the nuns.

"Now what?" shouts the first nun.

"Show him your cross," says the second.

So she winds the window down and shouts: "GET OFF MY F--ING HOOD!!"

Panda, if I were in emergency care I would not want to see this gold chart on my heart monitor. All of you forebearing and foreboding goldbugs need a little levity to get you through the doldrums of this day. Hi, Ted, forgot to wish you good morning but this will have to do.
Here's the additional story.

Two nuns are traveling through Europe in their car. They get to
Transylvania and are stopped at a traffic light. Suddenly, a diminutive
Dracula jumps onto the hood of the car and hisses through the windshield.

"Quick, quick!!" shouts the first nun, "What shall I do?"

"Turn the windshield wipers on, that will get rid of the abomination,"
says the second.

She switches them on, knocking Dracula about, but he clings on and hisses
again at the nuns.

"What shall I do now?" shouts the first nun.

"Switch on the windshield washer. I filled it up with Holy Water in the
Vatican, " says the second.

Dracula steams as the water burns his skin, but he clings on and hisses
again at the nuns.

"Now what?" shouts the first nun.

"Show him your cross," says the second.

So she winds the window down and shouts: "GET OFF MY F--ING HOOD!!"

SWC and GGO get 'buy' recommendations... Geeeez, as the worm turns! When was the last time that you heard of a buy recommendation on a gold stock!

SWC and GGO get 'buy' recommendations... Geeeez, as the worm turns! When was the last time that you heard of a buy recommendation on a gold stock!

There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.
...
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist in 1929

There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.
...
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist in 1929

Ted: In many ways I admire your drive for self sufficiency. I hope to hell it proves unnecessary in the end but it's a bet I'm unwilling to make. I have considered the same course myself on many occasions over the years but priorities and resources never crossed. Who knows, the future may make the decision for us. I hope not, for I still enjoy the luxury of a hot shower in the morning and a sauna is a prodigious consumer of hand cut firewood.

Having had the mixed fortune to grow up on my grandfathers homestead in norhern MN, I can relate to an era without electricity and the amenities that implies. I'm sure there are many others here, who have been similarly discommoded ( pun intended ) at some time in their lives. In our more illucid moments we may even look back on those days with a certain fondness. ......... Until we recall an outhouse at 40 below. .... or 90 above for that matter.

Ted: In many ways I admire your drive for self sufficiency. I hope to hell it proves unnecessary in the end but it's a bet I'm unwilling to make. I have considered the same course myself on many occasions over the years but priorities and resources never crossed. Who knows, the future may make the decision for us. I hope not, for I still enjoy the luxury of a hot shower in the morning and a sauna is a prodigious consumer of hand cut firewood.

Having had the mixed fortune to grow up on my grandfathers homestead in norhern MN, I can relate to an era without electricity and the amenities that implies. I'm sure there are many others here, who have been similarly discommoded ( pun intended ) at some time in their lives. In our more illucid moments we may even look back on those days with a certain fondness. ......... Until we recall an outhouse at 40 below. .... or 90 above for that matter.

Panda, SWC recommended by whom? I missed that one, but just bought a bunch more this morning, so if the price drops this afternoon you guys will know why : )

Panda, SWC recommended by whom? I missed that one, but just bought a bunch more this morning, so if the price drops this afternoon you guys will know why : )

Re ACWs ominous report @1:04, the original full-text version of the paper is available at http://www.mit.edu/people/irons/irons.html Just look for the last item under "Working Papers." You'll need a PostScript viewer ( Ghostscript works nicely, and is free. See http://www.cs.wisc.edu/~ghost/index.html ) .

ABSTRACT:

"This paper assesses both qualitatively and quantitatively the aggregate welfare gain and distributive consequences of selling or lending out the massive stocks of aboveground gold currently held by governments and international institutions. A model of the gold market is constructed which, unlike the standard model of extraction of a service-gneerating durable, allows for uses that reduce the stock ( "depletion" ) instead of mere depreciation. Additional gold can be made available to private agents either by extracting it from mines at a relatively high cost or by taking it from government stocks at zero cost. To maximize aggregate surplus, all zero-cost gold should be used before any high-cost ore is extracted; moreover, all gold available at zero cost should be furnished to the public immediately. We consider two policies, each of which induces the optimal allocation as a competitive equilibrium. These two policies belong to a class of policies which induce optimal allocation. Current policy, however, is not a member of this class. Hence welfare gains are possible if current policy is changed. Using a calibrated model, we estimate these gains to be $136 billion in aggregate, $90 billion of which would accrue to governments and the balance to the private sector."

Re ACWs ominous report @1:04, the original full-text version of the paper is available at http://www.mit.edu/people/irons/irons.html Just look for the last item under "Working Papers." You'll need a PostScript viewer ( Ghostscript works nicely, and is free. See http://www.cs.wisc.edu/~ghost/index.html ) .

ABSTRACT:

"This paper assesses both qualitatively and quantitatively the aggregate welfare gain and distributive consequences of selling or lending out the massive stocks of aboveground gold currently held by governments and international institutions. A model of the gold market is constructed which, unlike the standard model of extraction of a service-gneerating durable, allows for uses that reduce the stock ( "depletion" ) instead of mere depreciation. Additional gold can be made available to private agents either by extracting it from mines at a relatively high cost or by taking it from government stocks at zero cost. To maximize aggregate surplus, all zero-cost gold should be used before any high-cost ore is extracted; moreover, all gold available at zero cost should be furnished to the public immediately. We consider two policies, each of which induces the optimal allocation as a competitive equilibrium. These two policies belong to a class of policies which induce optimal allocation. Current policy, however, is not a member of this class. Hence welfare gains are possible if current policy is changed. Using a calibrated model, we estimate these gains to be $136 billion in aggregate, $90 billion of which would accrue to governments and the balance to the private sector."

Looks like a varry good day to be pickin up BARGAINS on gold stocks.

What is the best way to short the market? S&P puts?? Which one??

Tally HO

Looks like a varry good day to be pickin up BARGAINS on gold stocks.

What is the best way to short the market? S&P puts?? Which one??

Tally HO

Ron:

It is not surprising to see a report such as this appear. No doubt politicians worldwide salivate at thought of a freebie of this magnitude. You can be sure that the method of disposal which would be of the greatest benefit to the general welfare will never be discussed. Simply divvying up the bullion and giving every citizen the piece that is their's.

Ron:

It is not surprising to see a report such as this appear. No doubt politicians worldwide salivate at thought of a freebie of this magnitude. You can be sure that the method of disposal which would be of the greatest benefit to the general welfare will never be discussed. Simply divvying up the bullion and giving every citizen the piece that is their's.

Crash - An ex-stock broker friend called the other day. The market terrifies him. He remembers the '87 crash and watching the Dow drop from about 1900 to about 1200. It felt like death. He thinks things look so much worse now. He said he'd rather see the crash now, than see the Dow go to 10,000, which will be much worse. He thinks that even banks could close and people be begging for money. Paper would still be good at that point, and he believes that everyone should hide about $5000 in cash to have on hand "just in case". Forget about the interest you lose on it ( I told him that was easy, since I'd already lost so much on my gold stocks ) , but at least you'd have some money when you needed it. He does believe that gold will go up once the initial crash is over.

Ark and Ted - I agree with you Ted. Self-sufficiency should be everyone's goal. Ark, for people that can't grow a garden or do some "chainsawin", they can still be self sufficient. Even in an apartment you can store some dehydrated or freeze dried food under the bed, grow herbs on a windowsill in pots, put a fancy cloth over a big bucket of wheat and use it for a bedside table.

Once on a visit to Gettysburg I found lovely old coal oil lanterns that mounted on a wall. I also store candles. We have an airtight stove, which I realize wouldn't be possible in an apartment, but I believe that you can buy propane type heaters that could be used in an emergency if the power was off, or if you're in a house, a propane fireplace can offer some security for power outages. People are only unprepared because they're apathetic and don't believe anything can happen. If you want to prepare for emergencies, there are ways, even in the middle of the city in an apartment.

Crash, I'm not a survivalist, but a lot of their tips are good. If you want to eat during difficult times, store food. If you want to protect that food for your family, weapons help. I have a bit of gold bullion "just in case" and some junk silver. Be independent!

We bought canned dehydrated foods when our children were at home. We just wanted to be able to feed them if times became tough. When they married and left, we gave a lot of the stuff to them to take with them. We still have a certain amount of it left. Think what you'd want if you couldn't get out to a store and had no electrical power - then prepare. It's better to be safe than sorry. I'm glad I never had to use the things I collected, but it gave me a lot of security when we were raising a family. It prevents a lot of worry and stress.

When two of our children were pre-schoolers we moved from the city to the country. My first winter there was an education. We had unwittingly moved to a snow-belt within a snowbelt. My husband got storm-stayed at work ( 25 miles away ) for one full week. A blizzard raged, it was -15 F. and the winds were 75 miles per hour. Freddy the fish froze in the goldfish bowl. Although I'd dumped antifreeze down the drains, still some pipes froze. I dressed the kids in snowsuits and we danced and wiggled our fingers and toes and sang to keep warm. After two days with no heat we were snomobiled out to a neighbours' who had rigged up an old wood stove in the kitchen. Prior to that, I had tried to heat soup with a candle. It doesn't work well. All you want is something hot to warm your insides. We had lots of canned salmon, tuna, ham, etc., but no way of heating anything. A hot meal is very soothing when you're freezing. We made lots of sandwiches for hydro workers that came by snomobile after three days. Drifts were 12 to 24 feet high on some of the roads. It took days to open them. Huge plows came in from Toronto, since we had no big snow blowers in those days. After 27 years here, I'm used to snow up to the garage roof, and I'm also prepared. One week can make a big difference in a person's life.

You may not be able to afford everything at once, but even a little each pay check helps. And from my experiences in the stock market, I think you'd better get the practical things first ( we've got our chainsaw, Ted ) . After the market you might not have much cash left with which to buy anything.

Crash - An ex-stock broker friend called the other day. The market terrifies him. He remembers the '87 crash and watching the Dow drop from about 1900 to about 1200. It felt like death. He thinks things look so much worse now. He said he'd rather see the crash now, than see the Dow go to 10,000, which will be much worse. He thinks that even banks could close and people be begging for money. Paper would still be good at that point, and he believes that everyone should hide about $5000 in cash to have on hand "just in case". Forget about the interest you lose on it ( I told him that was easy, since I'd already lost so much on my gold stocks ) , but at least you'd have some money when you needed it. He does believe that gold will go up once the initial crash is over.

Ark and Ted - I agree with you Ted. Self-sufficiency should be everyone's goal. Ark, for people that can't grow a garden or do some "chainsawin", they can still be self sufficient. Even in an apartment you can store some dehydrated or freeze dried food under the bed, grow herbs on a windowsill in pots, put a fancy cloth over a big bucket of wheat and use it for a bedside table.

Once on a visit to Gettysburg I found lovely old coal oil lanterns that mounted on a wall. I also store candles. We have an airtight stove, which I realize wouldn't be possible in an apartment, but I believe that you can buy propane type heaters that could be used in an emergency if the power was off, or if you're in a house, a propane fireplace can offer some security for power outages. People are only unprepared because they're apathetic and don't believe anything can happen. If you want to prepare for emergencies, there are ways, even in the middle of the city in an apartment.

Crash, I'm not a survivalist, but a lot of their tips are good. If you want to eat during difficult times, store food. If you want to protect that food for your family, weapons help. I have a bit of gold bullion "just in case" and some junk silver. Be independent!

We bought canned dehydrated foods when our children were at home. We just wanted to be able to feed them if times became tough. When they married and left, we gave a lot of the stuff to them to take with them. We still have a certain amount of it left. Think what you'd want if you couldn't get out to a store and had no electrical power - then prepare. It's better to be safe than sorry. I'm glad I never had to use the things I collected, but it gave me a lot of security when we were raising a family. It prevents a lot of worry and stress.

When two of our children were pre-schoolers we moved from the city to the country. My first winter there was an education. We had unwittingly moved to a snow-belt within a snowbelt. My husband got storm-stayed at work ( 25 miles away ) for one full week. A blizzard raged, it was -15 F. and the winds were 75 miles per hour. Freddy the fish froze in the goldfish bowl. Although I'd dumped antifreeze down the drains, still some pipes froze. I dressed the kids in snowsuits and we danced and wiggled our fingers and toes and sang to keep warm. After two days with no heat we were snomobiled out to a neighbours' who had rigged up an old wood stove in the kitchen. Prior to that, I had tried to heat soup with a candle. It doesn't work well. All you want is something hot to warm your insides. We had lots of canned salmon, tuna, ham, etc., but no way of heating anything. A hot meal is very soothing when you're freezing. We made lots of sandwiches for hydro workers that came by snomobile after three days. Drifts were 12 to 24 feet high on some of the roads. It took days to open them. Huge plows came in from Toronto, since we had no big snow blowers in those days. After 27 years here, I'm used to snow up to the garage roof, and I'm also prepared. One week can make a big difference in a person's life.

You may not be able to afford everything at once, but even a little each pay check helps. And from my experiences in the stock market, I think you'd better get the practical things first ( we've got our chainsaw, Ted ) . After the market you might not have much cash left with which to buy anything.

Ron -- I, for one, would welcome the gold sales. All that gold should be in the peoples hands anyway! That's where most of it once was, and that is where it never should have left. That being the case, the possibilty of the government 'working' on the behalf of 'the people' are either slim or none. In other words, don't count on it happening!

Ron -- I, for one, would welcome the gold sales. All that gold should be in the peoples hands anyway! That's where most of it once was, and that is where it never should have left. That being the case, the possibilty of the government 'working' on the behalf of 'the people' are either slim or none. In other words, don't count on it happening!

George Cole: It appears that the 'monetaries' can also be added to your positive column today. The DM looks to be resuming its former downtrend and all the others are down with the exception of the BP. Bonds are up, the dollar index is up, "God is in his heaven and all is right with the world". ..... And yet gold is stable and the XAU is mildly positive. It's so easy to read more into these things than they deserve. Even on a one day basis but do you have a sense that there may be a decoupling of the currencies and gold? Recently, it just doesn't seem to react to them in any fashion. Maybe it's just one more indication that gold is indeed dead. Never to rise again, RIP.

George Cole: It appears that the 'monetaries' can also be added to your positive column today. The DM looks to be resuming its former downtrend and all the others are down with the exception of the BP. Bonds are up, the dollar index is up, "God is in his heaven and all is right with the world". ..... And yet gold is stable and the XAU is mildly positive. It's so easy to read more into these things than they deserve. Even on a one day basis but do you have a sense that there may be a decoupling of the currencies and gold? Recently, it just doesn't seem to react to them in any fashion. Maybe it's just one more indication that gold is indeed dead. Never to rise again, RIP.

Earl -- Wouldn't it be something if gold went to 50 bucks before the government actually decided to sell it all? And those purchases by the people made with inflated dollars to boot! What a hoot! Let's see now, the One World crowd putting independence 'stuff' back in peoples hands for almost free. Wouldn't happen!

D.A.: Speaking of asymptotes, the DOW action for the last 7 sessions is doing a great job of describing one. New eras are so pleasant to comtemplate. Especially, when those of the past were so bitter in the end. But this one will be different. It must be. I'm sure it will be. ..... I really need it to be. ...and so it goes.

SWC was recently recommended by J. Dines and Dizard of Nat. Review. I sold some at 24and 3/8 and will re-buy soon, I hope. I understand they are having a management shake up.

SWC was recently recommended by J. Dines and Dizard of Nat. Review. I sold some at 24and 3/8 and will re-buy soon, I hope. I understand they are having a management shake up.

D.A.: Speaking of asymptotes, the DOW action for the last 7 sessions is doing a great job of describing one. New eras are so pleasant to comtemplate. Especially, when those of the past were so bitter in the end. But this one will be different. It must be. I'm sure it will be. ..... I really need it to be. ...and so it goes.

Earl -- Wouldn't it be something if gold went to 50 bucks before the government actually decided to sell it all? And those purchases by the people made with inflated dollars to boot! What a hoot! Let's see now, the One World crowd putting independence 'stuff' back in peoples hands for almost free. Wouldn't happen!

DA: The CB's passing out the gold to the citizens: What a great idea! And you are right - far too simple and far too good for the citizens for our trusted civil servants to speak of it. This would be worth writing to congress about at the right time. I bet a lot of those contributing and lurking here would participate.

DA: The CB's passing out the gold to the citizens: What a great idea! And you are right - far too simple and far too good for the citizens for our trusted civil servants to speak of it. This would be worth writing to congress about at the right time. I bet a lot of those contributing and lurking here would participate.

Bob A: As a former subscriber of the inestimable Herr Dines, I would feel more comfortable should he recommend a short on SWC. He is often wrong ... but always positive.

Bob A: As a former subscriber of the inestimable Herr Dines, I would feel more comfortable should he recommend a short on SWC. He is often wrong ... but always positive.

D.A, Eldo: I'd love to see gold out of govt coffers, too, and in the hands of individual hoarders -- as long as there are lots and lots of them. But if this idea goes anywhere, and given the CBs dismissive attitude toward AU as money, it might, it'll be bad news for holders of both aboveground and belowground stocks, as the paper makes clear.

As the paper also makes clear, if such sales and loans do take place -- and the authors argue that the sooner it happens the greater the govt's profit -- the news should come out of the blue also to maximize the govt's take.

But there's bound to be lots of resistance to such a move by governments that have been stung in the past by insufficient gold stocks. So I think the chances are pretty slim.

D.A, Eldo: I'd love to see gold out of govt coffers, too, and in the hands of individual hoarders -- as long as there are lots and lots of them. But if this idea goes anywhere, and given the CBs dismissive attitude toward AU as money, it might, it'll be bad news for holders of both aboveground and belowground stocks, as the paper makes clear.

As the paper also makes clear, if such sales and loans do take place -- and the authors argue that the sooner it happens the greater the govt's profit -- the news should come out of the blue also to maximize the govt's take.

But there's bound to be lots of resistance to such a move by governments that have been stung in the past by insufficient gold stocks. So I think the chances are pretty slim.

POLARBEAR --

11:48 [GGO] GETCHELL GOLD CORP. STARTS WITH BUY RATING AT ABN/AMRO.
11:48 [SWC] STILLWATER MINING STARTS WITH BUY RAING AT ABN/AMRO.

TED and PATTIE.........Let me preface this comment by saying I am not a survivalist and I hope and pray the country never gets to the point of starving mobs, etc.....However, I own a farm so far out in the sticks even I have to have a map to get there....It has running water and a 16 inch seam of coal....I have a small mobile home at a nearby resort and a truck to pull it. 2 chain saws and plenty of tools for gardening ( That reminds me...I have to go work in garden now ) ....I live in town about 75 miles from the farm and there are no cities near the farm....The farm is rented out and has paid for its self X 3 in the 15 years I have owned it...I use the trailer at the resort for fun and camping. There is a small boat for fishing and river transportation. I purchased these things I wanted anyway, with the thought far in the back of my mind that they could be an insurance policy if the ultimate economic disaster struck.... An insurance policy I could use and enjoy now....And yes Ted, I know how to garden, fish and hunt.

TED and PATTIE.........Let me preface this comment by saying I am not a survivalist and I hope and pray the country never gets to the point of starving mobs, etc.....However, I own a farm so far out in the sticks even I have to have a map to get there....It has running water and a 16 inch seam of coal....I have a small mobile home at a nearby resort and a truck to pull it. 2 chain saws and plenty of tools for gardening ( That reminds me...I have to go work in garden now ) ....I live in town about 75 miles from the farm and there are no cities near the farm....The farm is rented out and has paid for its self X 3 in the 15 years I have owned it...I use the trailer at the resort for fun and camping. There is a small boat for fishing and river transportation. I purchased these things I wanted anyway, with the thought far in the back of my mind that they could be an insurance policy if the ultimate economic disaster struck.... An insurance policy I could use and enjoy now....And yes Ted, I know how to garden, fish and hunt.

POLARBEAR --

11:48 [GGO] GETCHELL GOLD CORP. STARTS WITH BUY RATING AT ABN/AMRO.
11:48 [SWC] STILLWATER MINING STARTS WITH BUY RAING AT ABN/AMRO.

Where is all this money coming from to drive the Dow the way it has? People dont seem to be curbing their spending that much, maybe from savings? Does anyone have a take on this?

Where is all this money coming from to drive the Dow the way it has? People dont seem to be curbing their spending that much, maybe from savings? Does anyone have a take on this?

Eldo: You may be sure that such distribution would be made, only, to the impoverished so that the "anointed" might then have the opportunity to manage it for them. ... sans pro bono. Of course. ..... Speaking of which. It's a never ending source of amusement to observe the actions of many of the Native American groups, in recent years. They continue to screw Uncle Sugar, frustrate the "anointed", separate the 'red necks' from their dinaro and generally prosper in spite of the best efforts of the "anointed" and the socially responsible.

They have educated many of their own people who now use the law of the "anointed" to serve the ends of their own people. While the state and fed govts howl and squeal...... A guy has to have a defective sense of humor to not enjoy the proceedings..... Whether the people are using the proceeds wisely is another matter. But that is their business.

Eldo: You may be sure that such distribution would be made, only, to the impoverished so that the "anointed" might then have the opportunity to manage it for them. ... sans pro bono. Of course. ..... Speaking of which. It's a never ending source of amusement to observe the actions of many of the Native American groups, in recent years. They continue to screw Uncle Sugar, frustrate the "anointed", separate the 'red necks' from their dinaro and generally prosper in spite of the best efforts of the "anointed" and the socially responsible.

They have educated many of their own people who now use the law of the "anointed" to serve the ends of their own people. While the state and fed govts howl and squeal...... A guy has to have a defective sense of humor to not enjoy the proceedings..... Whether the people are using the proceeds wisely is another matter. But that is their business.

Gold action today in the face of the mother of all bad news - a federal reserve study recommending selling off all gold reserves - will likely be seen as the definitive signal that the bottom is in. While I completely respect George S. Cole's view that confirming market data is required I suspect that the bull market in gold not be hesitant and stumbling but rather abrubt and violent like palladium.

And zinc ( as I recall ) . DA your post a few days ago summing up the inventory liquidation in zinc which occurred in the face of a declining market will likely be seen as the definitive explanation for what has been happening in gold over the last few years. When I say this I am viewing metal leases and even forward gold sales as all a form of inventory liquidation. Who needs declining - "non productive" - assets on the books??

Earl, think you have said it very well in your 00:04 comments about the DOW: "It's bubble time and there is not a thing to be done to change it.". In Kiplinger's classic book on manias and panics he has a great story about the south sea bubble even dragging sophisticated investors in because it was so strong and long lasting that they essentially had no choice if they wanted competetive returns.

This is the story of the last legs of this market. More and more money flowing into the SPX or Dow stocks from less competetive ( but diversified ) mutual funds. There is no way that one can predict when a parabolic will top out. I think that you can predict WHEN it will but given the power still in evidence I suspect this will go higher and last longer than anyone here will be able to stand. I still think it is possible that the Dow could hit 10,00 by the fall - although my knees tremble at the thought.

One thing that stands out about this the current investment millieu are the incredible risks that are starting to emerge, particularly in things like option writing. Call writers on SPX are going to be murdered on the way up and Put writers on the way down. Call writers in gold and silver stand to be decimated.

What this will do to the larger derivatives market is not knowable but frightening nontheless. Derivatives are constructed based on historical risk factors and the types of market action we are and will be witnessing will exceed historical standards by a significant margin. I am surprised that we have not seen more problems in derivatives than we have to date.

Gold action today in the face of the mother of all bad news - a federal reserve study recommending selling off all gold reserves - will likely be seen as the definitive signal that the bottom is in. While I completely respect George S. Cole's view that confirming market data is required I suspect that the bull market in gold not be hesitant and stumbling but rather abrubt and violent like palladium.

And zinc ( as I recall ) . DA your post a few days ago summing up the inventory liquidation in zinc which occurred in the face of a declining market will likely be seen as the definitive explanation for what has been happening in gold over the last few years. When I say this I am viewing metal leases and even forward gold sales as all a form of inventory liquidation. Who needs declining - "non productive" - assets on the books??

Earl, think you have said it very well in your 00:04 comments about the DOW: "It's bubble time and there is not a thing to be done to change it.". In Kiplinger's classic book on manias and panics he has a great story about the south sea bubble even dragging sophisticated investors in because it was so strong and long lasting that they essentially had no choice if they wanted competetive returns.

This is the story of the last legs of this market. More and more money flowing into the SPX or Dow stocks from less competetive ( but diversified ) mutual funds. There is no way that one can predict when a parabolic will top out. I think that you can predict WHEN it will but given the power still in evidence I suspect this will go higher and last longer than anyone here will be able to stand. I still think it is possible that the Dow could hit 10,00 by the fall - although my knees tremble at the thought.

One thing that stands out about this the current investment millieu are the incredible risks that are starting to emerge, particularly in things like option writing. Call writers on SPX are going to be murdered on the way up and Put writers on the way down. Call writers in gold and silver stand to be decimated.

What this will do to the larger derivatives market is not knowable but frightening nontheless. Derivatives are constructed based on historical risk factors and the types of market action we are and will be witnessing will exceed historical standards by a significant margin. I am surprised that we have not seen more problems in derivatives than we have to date.

Patti: How is it you were able to find such an 'old guy' for a broker?.... ( :- ) )

Patti: How is it you were able to find such an 'old guy' for a broker?.... ( :- ) )

MonetaryRealist: Good 9:57a.m. post!

MonetaryRealist: Good 9:57a.m. post!

To Ray and John Disney:
What is your take on the South African Rand? Will it decline further against the US Dollar? If yes, by a lot? When do you believe it will turn stronger? The reason I ask is that I want to pick up some WDEPY and HGMCY. Thanks

To Ray and John Disney:
What is your take on the South African Rand? Will it decline further against the US Dollar? If yes, by a lot? When do you believe it will turn stronger? The reason I ask is that I want to pick up some WDEPY and HGMCY. Thanks

Am having a heck of a hard time with phone lines today....Need to mow yard and work in garden anyway..PATTI...sorry about mis-spelling you name

Am having a heck of a hard time with phone lines today....Need to mow yard and work in garden anyway..PATTI...sorry about mis-spelling you name

Tort: Thanks mucho for the commodities broker joke. I have been unsuccessful at four attempts to tell it ( twice to brokers ) . I break up on the punch line. So I tell it to my self over and over, laughing each time, once so hard my stomach cramped up, is it possible to actually die laughing?

Tort: Thanks mucho for the commodities broker joke. I have been unsuccessful at four attempts to tell it ( twice to brokers ) . I break up on the punch line. So I tell it to my self over and over, laughing each time, once so hard my stomach cramped up, is it possible to actually die laughing?

Dizard of Nat. Review has my ear. He recommended a plat gold spread at least 3 months ago long before plat. started this recent move. He also spelled out SWC. John Dessauer,investment letter writer, in most recent issue added Placer Dome to his buy list, prior to this he did not like gold.

Dizard of Nat. Review has my ear. He recommended a plat gold spread at least 3 months ago long before plat. started this recent move. He also spelled out SWC. John Dessauer,investment letter writer, in most recent issue added Placer Dome to his buy list, prior to this he did not like gold.

FWIW -- 13:57 MARKETS HOLD ONTO GAINS AFTER PPI'S BIGGEST DROP IN 45 YEARS.

FWIW -- 13:57 MARKETS HOLD ONTO GAINS AFTER PPI'S BIGGEST DROP IN 45 YEARS.

GFD: In time gold will explode to the upside just like the whites. But I doubt the move will START this way. The whites did not explode from the bottom, but established solid technical uptrends before they took off.

Steve Puetz: The 1929 and 1987 crashes did not come out of the blue. They both were preceded by about 2 months of modest downward pressure before things got out of hand. If this pattern repeats, a crash ( if we do indeed get one ) is not likely until fall.

GFD: In time gold will explode to the upside just like the whites. But I doubt the move will START this way. The whites did not explode from the bottom, but established solid technical uptrends before they took off.

Steve Puetz: The 1929 and 1987 crashes did not come out of the blue. They both were preceded by about 2 months of modest downward pressure before things got out of hand. If this pattern repeats, a crash ( if we do indeed get one ) is not likely until fall.

Earl, that "old guy" is much younger than I am, and is no longer a broker. I think he couldn't stand the stress - now he's an accountant - maybe he just makes more money in the latter occupation. He did regale me with stories about the '29 crash, but I think they were gleaned from his grandfather. ( you know - you could buy someone's car if you bought them a week's worth of groceries - that type of thing )

In my day it took at least a week to spend a week's wages. Nowadays for many young people the only way to balance the budget is the ad hoc approach. If they want to add something they have to hock something else. They have the highest standard of living in the world - they just can't afford it. I don't mind being "oldish" and hopefully wiser. It's nice to reach the stage where you can spend what you have left after saving, instead of saving what you have left after you spend. This way you can even invest in gold stocks and get your excitement from the market, instead of worrying about being too old for modern fashions ( like topless ones! :- ) )

Earl, that "old guy" is much younger than I am, and is no longer a broker. I think he couldn't stand the stress - now he's an accountant - maybe he just makes more money in the latter occupation. He did regale me with stories about the '29 crash, but I think they were gleaned from his grandfather. ( you know - you could buy someone's car if you bought them a week's worth of groceries - that type of thing )

In my day it took at least a week to spend a week's wages. Nowadays for many young people the only way to balance the budget is the ad hoc approach. If they want to add something they have to hock something else. They have the highest standard of living in the world - they just can't afford it. I don't mind being "oldish" and hopefully wiser. It's nice to reach the stage where you can spend what you have left after saving, instead of saving what you have left after you spend. This way you can even invest in gold stocks and get your excitement from the market, instead of worrying about being too old for modern fashions ( like topless ones! :- ) )

Gold stocks now down modestly after giving up early gains. August gold off 30 cents. This bear is going to end shortly, but may have a few more loud growls left.

Gold stocks now down modestly after giving up early gains. August gold off 30 cents. This bear is going to end shortly, but may have a few more loud growls left.

GFD: Concur with your ideas. I am ticked off about the way it is playing out because it may not be possible to use the financial system for leverage on even the first part of the coming metals bull market. I used to think I would load up on metal futures after the financial markets had topped out and sell into the rise for at least the first 20%-40% of the bull. I still plan on doing that. But the longer and more insane this stock mania gets the greater the possibility the financial markets will shut down before any profits can be sucked out of winning metal accounts. And when the financial markets shut down any account winnings may become an instant liability, given our lovely gov. Best to be flat then.

GFD: Concur with your ideas. I am ticked off about the way it is playing out because it may not be possible to use the financial system for leverage on even the first part of the coming metals bull market. I used to think I would load up on metal futures after the financial markets had topped out and sell into the rise for at least the first 20%-40% of the bull. I still plan on doing that. But the longer and more insane this stock mania gets the greater the possibility the financial markets will shut down before any profits can be sucked out of winning metal accounts. And when the financial markets shut down any account winnings may become an instant liability, given our lovely gov. Best to be flat then.

Nailz - spelling mistake forgiven - your set-up in the country sounds perfect!! My son and family just bought a country home up north. He hooked a trailer on the back of his ATV, threw in some bails of hay and took hubby and I on a tour through the 100 acres of bush, up and down sand dunes, etc. I felt like a teenager on a hay ride again. There were bear claw marks on the trees and lots of deer tracks. I told him I'm getting too old for change and when I come to visit I'll bring my chicken or roast beef, but he has a bear in the freezer now, and I'm sure we'll be treated to an original menu the next time we're up north, like it or not.

Nailz - spelling mistake forgiven - your set-up in the country sounds perfect!! My son and family just bought a country home up north. He hooked a trailer on the back of his ATV, threw in some bails of hay and took hubby and I on a tour through the 100 acres of bush, up and down sand dunes, etc. I felt like a teenager on a hay ride again. There were bear claw marks on the trees and lots of deer tracks. I told him I'm getting too old for change and when I come to visit I'll bring my chicken or roast beef, but he has a bear in the freezer now, and I'm sure we'll be treated to an original menu the next time we're up north, like it or not.

Lambs being led to their eventual slaughter. Most of these lambs just don't realize this blowoff is the worst possible thing that could happen. It guarantees a violent reversal down the road, one in which it will be impossible for them to get out. And , the buy the dippies crowd will watch in horror after they buy more after the first dip expecting the dow to go to 10000 only to see another multi thousand point drop develop. I may have scoffed at those looking for dow 1000 a while back, but no longer. I fear the worst now.

Lambs being led to their eventual slaughter. Most of these lambs just don't realize this blowoff is the worst possible thing that could happen. It guarantees a violent reversal down the road, one in which it will be impossible for them to get out. And , the buy the dippies crowd will watch in horror after they buy more after the first dip expecting the dow to go to 10000 only to see another multi thousand point drop develop. I may have scoffed at those looking for dow 1000 a while back, but no longer. I fear the worst now.

I have been an investor in the RYDEX URSA mutual fund which
basically shorts the S&P 500 futures and options contracts.
Needless to say, I am in the whole on this. Should I bail
out all together or average in more purchases as the Dow
continues to climb? At this point, I'm about ready to invest
in Meals-Ready-to-EAt ( MREs ) as a food storage item and resell
them for 2-3 times original cost when our financial and ulimate
consumer infrastructure falls apart. Even if it doesn't, I have
a tasty ( so I've been told ) food item that will last on my shelf
for years and may tide me over if I lose my job. Thoughts on any
of this?

I have been an investor in the RYDEX URSA mutual fund which
basically shorts the S&P 500 futures and options contracts.
Needless to say, I am in the whole on this. Should I bail
out all together or average in more purchases as the Dow
continues to climb? At this point, I'm about ready to invest
in Meals-Ready-to-EAt ( MREs ) as a food storage item and resell
them for 2-3 times original cost when our financial and ulimate
consumer infrastructure falls apart. Even if it doesn't, I have
a tasty ( so I've been told ) food item that will last on my shelf
for years and may tide me over if I lose my job. Thoughts on any
of this?

Westboy: hahahahaha..who's getting led to slaughter...hahahaha

Westboy: hahahahaha..who's getting led to slaughter...hahahaha

FSAGX TOP TEN:

Top Ten Holdings

as of 04/30/97

EURO-NEVADA MINING CORP LTD

GETCHELL GOLD CORP

FRANCO-NEVADA MINING CORP LTD

NEWMONT GOLD CO

GREENSTONE RESOURCES LTD

NEWMONT MINING CORP

BUENAVENTURA ( CIA DE MIN ) CL T

CAMBIOR INC

STILLWATER MINING CO

144APIONEER GROUP INC

FSAGX TOP TEN:

Top Ten Holdings

as of 04/30/97

EURO-NEVADA MINING CORP LTD

GETCHELL GOLD CORP

FRANCO-NEVADA MINING CORP LTD

NEWMONT GOLD CO

GREENSTONE RESOURCES LTD

NEWMONT MINING CORP

BUENAVENTURA ( CIA DE MIN ) CL T

CAMBIOR INC

STILLWATER MINING CO

144APIONEER GROUP INC

If December was "irrational exhuberance", what is 7800 Dow called??

If December was "irrational exhuberance", what is 7800 Dow called??

Earl ( 12:11 ) I take after my father's side of the family ( thank God ) and they are from St.Paul...Spent much time in Ely MN...Funny you should mention hot showers and saunas as we had BOTH in Vermont and without electricity...The efficent wood-burning sauna took very little wood to get nice and hot...Hot showers came from a water jacket in the wood stove plus a solar collector on the roof...No outhouse either as we had a compost toilet made by a company founded by Abbey Rockefeller of all people...I have NEVER trusted "the system" and now find it ironic that I am defending the stock market...Ain't life strange!

Earl ( 12:11 ) I take after my father's side of the family ( thank God ) and they are from St.Paul...Spent much time in Ely MN...Funny you should mention hot showers and saunas as we had BOTH in Vermont and without electricity...The efficent wood-burning sauna took very little wood to get nice and hot...Hot showers came from a water jacket in the wood stove plus a solar collector on the roof...No outhouse either as we had a compost toilet made by a company founded by Abbey Rockefeller of all people...I have NEVER trusted "the system" and now find it ironic that I am defending the stock market...Ain't life strange!

7800 and higher will be called: "national down-the-tubes-R-Us"
when this house of cards comes crashing down. Keep your gold
and PGM positions and start building cash to buy the "Blood on
the streets" .

7800 and higher will be called: "national down-the-tubes-R-Us"
when this house of cards comes crashing down. Keep your gold
and PGM positions and start building cash to buy the "Blood on
the streets" .

Patti ( 12:46 ) Great post and enjoyed your winter story!...With all the gloom+doom talk about the economy-stock market you'd think more people would be preparing themselves by learning to be more self-sufficent and not being so DEPENDANT on a system they don't believe in...especially people on a Gold forum!

Patti ( 12:46 ) Great post and enjoyed your winter story!...With all the gloom+doom talk about the economy-stock market you'd think more people would be preparing themselves by learning to be more self-sufficent and not being so DEPENDANT on a system they don't believe in...especially people on a Gold forum!

You are right, it's inevitable and it's comming, the only question is when. I am surprised that Greenspan isn't trying to slow this stock market mania down. What happened to the "irrational exuberence" worries he had when the dow was a couple of thousand points lower?
Is Greenspan now implying that the market is safe by his deafening silence?
Who will be buying the multi billions of stock sale orders when the market finally tops and everyone wants their cash and heads for the exit doors at the same time? Answer: No-one.
When the margin calls are triggered, how will they liquidate the client positions to settle the margin calls if they can't liquidate?
When it finally comes, this may not be a crash, it may be a meltdown.
Does the Fed have any contingency plans to cope with this?
Robert Prechter's call for a 600 or 700 dow may not be that impossible.
Scary, even for Goldbugs.....

You are right, it's inevitable and it's comming, the only question is when. I am surprised that Greenspan isn't trying to slow this stock market mania down. What happened to the "irrational exuberence" worries he had when the dow was a couple of thousand points lower?
Is Greenspan now implying that the market is safe by his deafening silence?
Who will be buying the multi billions of stock sale orders when the market finally tops and everyone wants their cash and heads for the exit doors at the same time? Answer: No-one.
When the margin calls are triggered, how will they liquidate the client positions to settle the margin calls if they can't liquidate?
When it finally comes, this may not be a crash, it may be a meltdown.
Does the Fed have any contingency plans to cope with this?
Robert Prechter's call for a 600 or 700 dow may not be that impossible.
Scary, even for Goldbugs.....

TED: do you have to flirt with ALL the female posters?

TED: do you have to flirt with ALL the female posters?

Nailz ( 13:19 ) I second what Patti said about your set-up in the country as it sounds great!...Some local people are trying to reclaim their land at Scaterie Island from the goverment and that's where I'd like to set up shop!...There's a beautiful place there called Tin Cove that has a sandy beach and 100 feet behind that a fresh water pond with great tasting water...Tin Cove is also the only place you can land at the island during storms and high seas....I know from experience...

Nailz ( 13:19 ) I second what Patti said about your set-up in the country as it sounds great!...Some local people are trying to reclaim their land at Scaterie Island from the goverment and that's where I'd like to set up shop!...There's a beautiful place there called Tin Cove that has a sandy beach and 100 feet behind that a fresh water pond with great tasting water...Tin Cove is also the only place you can land at the island during storms and high seas....I know from experience...

Nailz ( 13:19 ) I second what Patti said about your set-up in the country as it sounds great!...Some local people are trying to reclaim their land at Scaterie Island from the goverment and that's where I'd like to set up shop!...There's a beautiful place there called Tin Cove that has a sandy beach and 100 feet behind that a fresh water pond with great tasting water...Tin Cove is also the only place you can land at the island during storms and high seas....I know from experience...

Nailz ( 13:19 ) I second what Patti said about your set-up in the country as it sounds great!...Some local people are trying to reclaim their land at Scaterie Island from the goverment and that's where I'd like to set up shop!...There's a beautiful place there called Tin Cove that has a sandy beach and 100 feet behind that a fresh water pond with great tasting water...Tin Cove is also the only place you can land at the island during storms and high seas....I know from experience...

General:

I also was in Rydex Ursa back in April when the market started its latest surge. I sold these shares a few days after the market exploded for a loss of about 5% and got long in a hurry. When you are short NEVER NEVER let your losses run.

There is little doubt the market will turn south soon, but no one really knows how high it will go before that happens. My best guess is about Dow 8000, but Dow 8500 or even Dow 9000 cannot be ruled out.

General:

I also was in Rydex Ursa back in April when the market started its latest surge. I sold these shares a few days after the market exploded for a loss of about 5% and got long in a hurry. When you are short NEVER NEVER let your losses run.

There is little doubt the market will turn south soon, but no one really knows how high it will go before that happens. My best guess is about Dow 8000, but Dow 8500 or even Dow 9000 cannot be ruled out.

Hi Tort: Do you have a joke about DUMB Redheads...hahahaha...the world is full of FOOLS...

Hi Tort: Do you have a joke about DUMB Redheads...hahahaha...the world is full of FOOLS...

Front: Yeah, I got Koss speakers.....must be the other thingy...I was a luddite until January when I bought the "puter"...so lead me through it..
slowly...

Front: Yeah, I got Koss speakers.....must be the other thingy...I was a luddite until January when I bought the "puter"...so lead me through it..
slowly...

MOREGOLD: Greenie knows what's coming but does not want to be blamed for ending the biggest party in stock market history. All past bear markets have been preceded by substantial Fed tightening, but I suspect IT WILL BE DIFFERENT THIS TIME.

Next bear probably will begin without any more tightening. This could be the sleight of hand that keeps most in the market too long. After all if inflation is low, the Fed won't tighten, and if the Fed won't tighten than a bear market is impossible. Right?

I'm sure the Fed and Treasury have worked out elaborate scenarios on how to respond to a market meltdown. Little doubt they will be buying futures heavily if things get really bad in lower Manhattan. Will they be able to prevent a meltdown if one starts to develop? We shall see soon enough.

MOREGOLD: Greenie knows what's coming but does not want to be blamed for ending the biggest party in stock market history. All past bear markets have been preceded by substantial Fed tightening, but I suspect IT WILL BE DIFFERENT THIS TIME.

Next bear probably will begin without any more tightening. This could be the sleight of hand that keeps most in the market too long. After all if inflation is low, the Fed won't tighten, and if the Fed won't tighten than a bear market is impossible. Right?

I'm sure the Fed and Treasury have worked out elaborate scenarios on how to respond to a market meltdown. Little doubt they will be buying futures heavily if things get really bad in lower Manhattan. Will they be able to prevent a meltdown if one starts to develop? We shall see soon enough.

George S. Cole- the scary part is that this market may continue to rise for the next several years. Of course, there will be many bumps along the way, some very deep, but it is my contention that the only thing that will kill the stock market is a major, major turn in investor sentiment to get out of stocks and move to something better. I believe the baby boom bunch will be much tougher then people think to get out of this market. It will probably take a war or a major catastrophe to change the attitude. I cant believe in your writing that you call for $3000 gold? I have heard people speculate like that since 1980. It is very hard to imagine. Thanks George for your insights.

George S. Cole- the scary part is that this market may continue to rise for the next several years. Of course, there will be many bumps along the way, some very deep, but it is my contention that the only thing that will kill the stock market is a major, major turn in investor sentiment to get out of stocks and move to something better. I believe the baby boom bunch will be much tougher then people think to get out of this market. It will probably take a war or a major catastrophe to change the attitude. I cant believe in your writing that you call for $3000 gold? I have heard people speculate like that since 1980. It is very hard to imagine. Thanks George for your insights.

bw: I seriously doubt that the exchanges will close immediately in the aftermath of a stock market plunge. And frankly I don't expect an immediate impact on the economy either. Unlike 1929 when everyone bought stocks on 5% margins, the current market could collapse to zero without affecting ( immediately ) peoples day to day lives. What it would mean for most people is that they would have a less comfortable retirement some time in the future.

Face it. Most public money in the markets reflects "savings" in one form or another - and North America is not into "savings" in any case. All the crash could mean is that measly savings levels get worse. So?

Over time ( 12-18 ) months you would see economic contractions as people cut back on spending as they react to a serious reverse wealth effect. How things would play out after that is not clear to me.

I guess what I am saying is that many financial assets are so decoupled from reality that it does not matter how they are priced - high or low.

bw: I seriously doubt that the exchanges will close immediately in the aftermath of a stock market plunge. And frankly I don't expect an immediate impact on the economy either. Unlike 1929 when everyone bought stocks on 5% margins, the current market could collapse to zero without affecting ( immediately ) peoples day to day lives. What it would mean for most people is that they would have a less comfortable retirement some time in the future.

Face it. Most public money in the markets reflects "savings" in one form or another - and North America is not into "savings" in any case. All the crash could mean is that measly savings levels get worse. So?

Over time ( 12-18 ) months you would see economic contractions as people cut back on spending as they react to a serious reverse wealth effect. How things would play out after that is not clear to me.

I guess what I am saying is that many financial assets are so decoupled from reality that it does not matter how they are priced - high or low.

One of the participants on the Golddigger thread who has been pretty good on calling the markets thinks the Dow peaked today at 7845 intraday. Even if he is correct, I suspect the Dow will hang around these rarified levels for a few weeks before breaking sharply. And small caps and mid caps could move up considerably further even if the Dow starts treading water.

One of the participants on the Golddigger thread who has been pretty good on calling the markets thinks the Dow peaked today at 7845 intraday. Even if he is correct, I suspect the Dow will hang around these rarified levels for a few weeks before breaking sharply. And small caps and mid caps could move up considerably further even if the Dow starts treading water.

For Stokes
Re the rand. You ask tough questions. In general,
I would expect the rand to weaken against the dollar
by the difference between their inflation rates. Ten
per cent versus 3 percent - making a likely fall of
7 per cent per year of the rand versus the dollar.
However, I believe that the latest fall was overdone
and has placed the rand near the top of a channel at
about 4.7-4.8 to the $. Since it seems to be testing
4.5 pretty hard now I think a rerun up to the top of
the channel is likely - beyond that I would not
worry too much. However bear in mind that I have been
wrong in the past using this methodology more often
than I like to recall. Im curious what Ray thinks.

For Stokes
Re the rand. You ask tough questions. In general,
I would expect the rand to weaken against the dollar
by the difference between their inflation rates. Ten
per cent versus 3 percent - making a likely fall of
7 per cent per year of the rand versus the dollar.
However, I believe that the latest fall was overdone
and has placed the rand near the top of a channel at
about 4.7-4.8 to the $. Since it seems to be testing
4.5 pretty hard now I think a rerun up to the top of
the channel is likely - beyond that I would not
worry too much. However bear in mind that I have been
wrong in the past using this methodology more often
than I like to recall. Im curious what Ray thinks.

BOB M: I have not predicted $3000 gold, but that price would not surprise me. What I said was that if capital ever starts to run scared in this country as it was in the 1930s, gold would soar to at least $3000 an ounce. I stand by that statement.

While most baby boomers claim to be in for the long hall, very few have experienced a bear market. We shall see how many of them stick it out when the market drops 20-30% and doesn't quickly recover. I suspect many will dump everything near the bottom.

BOB M: I have not predicted $3000 gold, but that price would not surprise me. What I said was that if capital ever starts to run scared in this country as it was in the 1930s, gold would soar to at least $3000 an ounce. I stand by that statement.

While most baby boomers claim to be in for the long hall, very few have experienced a bear market. We shall see how many of them stick it out when the market drops 20-30% and doesn't quickly recover. I suspect many will dump everything near the bottom.

George S. Cole: I agree that the PGM's built a good technical base before lifting off. My scenario ( which, of course, could be completely out to lunch ) is that gold being the last of the precious metals will need less "constructive action". More precisely, gold could start moving in a commodity panic driven by short covering and inventory accumulation which could be started if the Russians don't provide "deliverance" to the palladium markets ( and all those poor Japanese shorts ) .

BTW the book I was refering to in my earlier post is "Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises" by Charles P. Kindleberger NOT Kiplinger as started earlier.

George S. Cole: I agree that the PGM's built a good technical base before lifting off. My scenario ( which, of course, could be completely out to lunch ) is that gold being the last of the precious metals will need less "constructive action". More precisely, gold could start moving in a commodity panic driven by short covering and inventory accumulation which could be started if the Russians don't provide "deliverance" to the palladium markets ( and all those poor Japanese shorts ) .

BTW the book I was refering to in my earlier post is "Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises" by Charles P. Kindleberger NOT Kiplinger as started earlier.

Whoops!! "that gold being the last of the precious metals will need less "constructive action". " should be "that gold being the last of the precious metals TO START MOVING will need less "constructive action". "

Whoops!! "that gold being the last of the precious metals will need less "constructive action". " should be "that gold being the last of the precious metals TO START MOVING will need less "constructive action". "

Bob M: It looks to me we may have a sellers strike in the dow. If no one is willing to sell it takes little buying to force prices up a lot. The potential spec shorts have had their heads handed to them so frequently they are gun shy. The longs are looking for 10,000 at least to sell. The inflow into the mutual funds has been running at about 5 billion a week last couple of weeks. The funds are probably also running down their cash that should be more than enough to support this blow off given reluctant sellers. Watch the flow into the funds, should it pick up and the funds panic this blow off could get real interesting. If there is one thing the funds have learned over the last few years, its that the cash has to be put to work as soon as its received.

Bob M: It looks to me we may have a sellers strike in the dow. If no one is willing to sell it takes little buying to force prices up a lot. The potential spec shorts have had their heads handed to them so frequently they are gun shy. The longs are looking for 10,000 at least to sell. The inflow into the mutual funds has been running at about 5 billion a week last couple of weeks. The funds are probably also running down their cash that should be more than enough to support this blow off given reluctant sellers. Watch the flow into the funds, should it pick up and the funds panic this blow off could get real interesting. If there is one thing the funds have learned over the last few years, its that the cash has to be put to work as soon as its received.

GFD: You pays your money and you choose you scenario.

BTW, wonder how many of the gold shorts knew in advance about the Fed study advocating the CBs sell all their bullion. More than a few I suspect. Some of these shorts must be a mite nervous now that the news is out and bullion fell only 50 cents.

GFD: You pays your money and you choose you scenario.

BTW, wonder how many of the gold shorts knew in advance about the Fed study advocating the CBs sell all their bullion. More than a few I suspect. Some of these shorts must be a mite nervous now that the news is out and bullion fell only 50 cents.

GFD: Sure hope you are correct about the financial markets staying open until I can close out my metal longs. I can wire cash to physicals in a couple of minutes. My fear is that that may not be fast enough.

GFD: Sure hope you are correct about the financial markets staying open until I can close out my metal longs. I can wire cash to physicals in a couple of minutes. My fear is that that may not be fast enough.

Stokes and J. Disney- I do not know the direction of the Rand, probably down but at what rate is a big question. A fallin Rand is good for the SA gold shares and that is why I am out of them for now. I have a meeting scheduled for the week of July 1st with a top SA currency and stock analysts and I plan to pick his brain on that question.

Most of my shares made up a lot of the down yesterday. Tried to add to KRY and AZS but too fast for me.

Tally HO

Stokes and J. Disney- I do not know the direction of the Rand, probably down but at what rate is a big question. A fallin Rand is good for the SA gold shares and that is why I am out of them for now. I have a meeting scheduled for the week of July 1st with a top SA currency and stock analysts and I plan to pick his brain on that question.

Most of my shares made up a lot of the down yesterday. Tried to add to KRY and AZS but too fast for me.

Tally HO

George Cole: Great observation on the "report" versus gold price. The shorts now have the weekend to consider it.

George Cole: Great observation on the "report" versus gold price. The shorts now have the weekend to consider it.

Don't flip that switch!

Don't flip that switch!

If Mr. Market is following a strong Efficient Market Hypothesis then the party ends when earnings show flat. The FED rate hike/inflation story is dead here in G7 territory - it has been exported to the LDC ( Lesser Developed Countries ) markets.

The current Bull theme is that LDC's markets are opening wide with special reference to China SE Asia. Consumer demand form this area is feuling profits of the American Dream corporataions. The DOW comprises the classic American economic engine ( even without MSFT + INTC ) and responds according to the boom scenario.

When does the music stop and the folks runs for the chairs ?

The best guess is probably the next round of earnings reports that should reflect the recent news on lower US retail sales. This should be the beginning of the end of a chain of recessionary indicators that will do what the FED can't do in the absence of domestic inflation - however figured / spun.

So GS Cole's forecast for summer DOW follies make sense if the earnings picture turns sour.

What happens to gold ?

We can ruminate on the prospects for gold in context of recent white metal action but the writing on the wall suggests that gold will be still in a funk until CB's stop selling at a magic price and gold miners reduce selling forward at these prices. It will take a fundamental change in demand/supply of physical gold to turn this mother bear around.

I don't think we will see a financial crisis sufficient to unlodge the US$ from the mantle of currency of last resort.

In this regard we only need to think about recent history and its impact on the US$. The FSU ( Former Soviet Union ) had a lively black market in US$'s. In Russia you do "business" with US$ as with other FSU countries. The Ruble is for the average folks who buy subsistance goods like bread and vodka. The point is clear: the US$ reigns supreme in a nation ( Russia ) that is a major ( 2nd or 3rd - I understand ) supplier of gold.

The gold metal is a relic to the young financial wizards and decision-makers in the canyons of South Manhattan or The City of London.

The gold market is downplayed by the demographic and psychological profile of new money managers who relate the product to jewelry and as a monetary mindset in financial history before the onset of the Information Age ( circa 1981 birth of PC ) that runs on silicon and carbon and industrial processes that - to a very minor extent - use gold in the production function.

Gold is tending more to the dynamic of the commodity market than to the financial reserve market since the dawning of the Information Age - check the stats and see the trend/chart and tell me something I am missing please.

Cheers

If Mr. Market is following a strong Efficient Market Hypothesis then the party ends when earnings show flat. The FED rate hike/inflation story is dead here in G7 territory - it has been exported to the LDC ( Lesser Developed Countries ) markets.

The current Bull theme is that LDC's markets are opening wide with special reference to China SE Asia. Consumer demand form this area is feuling profits of the American Dream corporataions. The DOW comprises the classic American economic engine ( even without MSFT + INTC ) and responds according to the boom scenario.

When does the music stop and the folks runs for the chairs ?

The best guess is probably the next round of earnings reports that should reflect the recent news on lower US retail sales. This should be the beginning of the end of a chain of recessionary indicators that will do what the FED can't do in the absence of domestic inflation - however figured / spun.

So GS Cole's forecast for summer DOW follies make sense if the earnings picture turns sour.

What happens to gold ?

We can ruminate on the prospects for gold in context of recent white metal action but the writing on the wall suggests that gold will be still in a funk until CB's stop selling at a magic price and gold miners reduce selling forward at these prices. It will take a fundamental change in demand/supply of physical gold to turn this mother bear around.

I don't think we will see a financial crisis sufficient to unlodge the US$ from the mantle of currency of last resort.

In this regard we only need to think about recent history and its impact on the US$. The FSU ( Former Soviet Union ) had a lively black market in US$'s. In Russia you do "business" with US$ as with other FSU countries. The Ruble is for the average folks who buy subsistance goods like bread and vodka. The point is clear: the US$ reigns supreme in a nation ( Russia ) that is a major ( 2nd or 3rd - I understand ) supplier of gold.

The gold metal is a relic to the young financial wizards and decision-makers in the canyons of South Manhattan or The City of London.

The gold market is downplayed by the demographic and psychological profile of new money managers who relate the product to jewelry and as a monetary mindset in financial history before the onset of the Information Age ( circa 1981 birth of PC ) that runs on silicon and carbon and industrial processes that - to a very minor extent - use gold in the production function.

Gold is tending more to the dynamic of the commodity market than to the financial reserve market since the dawning of the Information Age - check the stats and see the trend/chart and tell me something I am missing please.

Cheers

To: Monetary Realist

Interesting post this morning. I myself am a "tweener" ( between the Gen X and Boomers ) , and have younger siblings and cousins. I try to talk to older friends or family about future economic activity and their eyes glaze over. They don't even want to think about it. However when I talk about this to my younger sisters and cousins I'm amazed at how much they know and think about this topic. Several of them are actually doing something about it. When my one cousin changed jobs she took her 401K money and paid the taxes and 10% penalty and put the rest into physical gold. She ended up with over 60 oz. Another cousin has bought a small farm in southern Iowa and is beginning a food storage program. These kids seem to intuitively know whats going to happen and are making preparations. Anyway, good luck.

To: Monetary Realist

Interesting post this morning. I myself am a "tweener" ( between the Gen X and Boomers ) , and have younger siblings and cousins. I try to talk to older friends or family about future economic activity and their eyes glaze over. They don't even want to think about it. However when I talk about this to my younger sisters and cousins I'm amazed at how much they know and think about this topic. Several of them are actually doing something about it. When my one cousin changed jobs she took her 401K money and paid the taxes and 10% penalty and put the rest into physical gold. She ended up with over 60 oz. Another cousin has bought a small farm in southern Iowa and is beginning a food storage program. These kids seem to intuitively know whats going to happen and are making preparations. Anyway, good luck.

Bob- well said. You have hit on a major major point, the mindset of young people, and gold does not fit into that plan, short of a major catastrophe. The point about mines forward selling is well taken also, until that dries up...flat to down. I have believed all along that the likely way for gold to go is down still, $200 an ounce would be a more realistic price...Cheers

Bob- well said. You have hit on a major major point, the mindset of young people, and gold does not fit into that plan, short of a major catastrophe. The point about mines forward selling is well taken also, until that dries up...flat to down. I have believed all along that the likely way for gold to go is down still, $200 an ounce would be a more realistic price...Cheers

Don't shot me up!...I want the lead!

Don't shot me up!...I want the lead!

Anyone hear of the, "Crash Protection Team"? Yes folks, they are for real. Whether they can stop a depression or not, I don't know. This I do know, anyone expecting the market to lose half it's value in one day....... Well, some things are better left unsaid. A more probable scenario would be a sharp crack in the indexes followed by a rebound ( like we haven't seen this before! ) , but the rebound tops out below the previous high. Sooner or later we wind up in a grinding bear market. A nice slow tortuous affair that leaves the bulls dead and the bears wounded. That's right, I said bears wounded. The bears have taken a pounding of late. In a bear market, some people think, "I'll just go short and make a ton of money." Wrong! Bears markets don't go straight down! They go up too! That's what sucks the life out of the bull, the repeated hope for, 'The rally' to begin the new bull. These are usually sharp, short covering rallies that catch some bears by surprise on the right side, but at the wrong time! But more than anything, it's the slooow grinding down that slowly kills everyone. Just look at the gold mining share for the last year plus, and remember how you felt during this period. Remember the little rallies on the way down? Someday that shoe will be worn by other stock holders. Didn't mean to lecture, but let's not party just yet. Things are looking promising for the metals with the breakout of the PGMs. I just want to see a couple more pieces fall in to place. Thirty year bond chart coming soon....

Anyone hear of the, "Crash Protection Team"? Yes folks, they are for real. Whether they can stop a depression or not, I don't know. This I do know, anyone expecting the market to lose half it's value in one day....... Well, some things are better left unsaid. A more probable scenario would be a sharp crack in the indexes followed by a rebound ( like we haven't seen this before! ) , but the rebound tops out below the previous high. Sooner or later we wind up in a grinding bear market. A nice slow tortuous affair that leaves the bulls dead and the bears wounded. That's right, I said bears wounded. The bears have taken a pounding of late. In a bear market, some people think, "I'll just go short and make a ton of money." Wrong! Bears markets don't go straight down! They go up too! That's what sucks the life out of the bull, the repeated hope for, 'The rally' to begin the new bull. These are usually sharp, short covering rallies that catch some bears by surprise on the right side, but at the wrong time! But more than anything, it's the slooow grinding down that slowly kills everyone. Just look at the gold mining share for the last year plus, and remember how you felt during this period. Remember the little rallies on the way down? Someday that shoe will be worn by other stock holders. Didn't mean to lecture, but let's not party just yet. Things are looking promising for the metals with the breakout of the PGMs. I just want to see a couple more pieces fall in to place. Thirty year bond chart coming soon....

Hi Panda!...What league do they play in???...hope they're better than the Bosox....Bring on the long bond chart...

Hi Panda!...What league do they play in???...hope they're better than the Bosox....Bring on the long bond chart...

Tarnished: Can you read this or are you still in the dark???

Tarnished: Can you read this or are you still in the dark???

Ted @15:11: Ely MN and environs? Thats the spot. Small world; ain't it? After the energy crisis thing in the 70s, I converted to wood heat here in Portland. For many years I reverted to old ways and cut my own wood. Then it was decided by the "anointed" that the national forests of Oregon and Washington, really belonged only to those who were sensitive and caring. It then became too difficult to find decent wood to cut and was forced to buy it. In retrospect it was always a pleasant, physical activity but the prospect of being forced to do it is now daunting. It's an age thing you know.

Ted @15:11: Ely MN and environs? Thats the spot. Small world; ain't it? After the energy crisis thing in the 70s, I converted to wood heat here in Portland. For many years I reverted to old ways and cut my own wood. Then it was decided by the "anointed" that the national forests of Oregon and Washington, really belonged only to those who were sensitive and caring. It then became too difficult to find decent wood to cut and was forced to buy it. In retrospect it was always a pleasant, physical activity but the prospect of being forced to do it is now daunting. It's an age thing you know.

Panda: I have long felt that a long, slow, grinding bear market such we gold bugs have experienced over the past 17 months is more likely than a 1929 or 1987 type crash. However, the market atmosphere has become so frenzied of late that a crash is a real possibility.

Panda: I have long felt that a long, slow, grinding bear market such we gold bugs have experienced over the past 17 months is more likely than a 1929 or 1987 type crash. However, the market atmosphere has become so frenzied of late that a crash is a real possibility.

Earl: Portland...eh...Yeah, I know what you mean about age and wood heat as I'm feelin a little sore after a couple of weeks of chainsawin and wood splittin with what's called a monster maul ( 40 pound metal maul ) ...if ya can get it over your head and just drop it...SPLIT...I'm determined to stay young physically cause that's my strong suit...never was much fer readin or writin....You can't be that old!

Earl: Portland...eh...Yeah, I know what you mean about age and wood heat as I'm feelin a little sore after a couple of weeks of chainsawin and wood splittin with what's called a monster maul ( 40 pound metal maul ) ...if ya can get it over your head and just drop it...SPLIT...I'm determined to stay young physically cause that's my strong suit...never was much fer readin or writin....You can't be that old!

Without further ado, FWIW,

BBL

Without further ado, FWIW,

BBL

Time fer a movie...

Time fer a movie...

George S. Cole -- I know people who jumped in to the index funds less than a year ago ( more like nine-ten months ago ) , they are currently up 29%. I share your amazment at this market action of late. If the market 'corrected' twenty percent ( 1500+ points! ) , these folks who got in less than a year ago would be a little above break-even. Given the 'buy and hold mentality', these fund holders are unlikely to bolt from the market. They are more likely to hold on for a ten, twenty, or more percent loss. Especially given that most are playing with retirement money, and do not perceive an immediate need for the money. The caveat here is, at some point the loss becomes too much to bear psychologically. That is the point of real panic selling, "For whatever you can get me! Get me out now! Sell at the market!" MF managers on the other hand? Really got to go now, BBL.

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George S. Cole -- I know people who jumped in to the index funds less than a year ago ( more like nine-ten months ago ) , they are currently up 29%. I share your amazment at this market action of late. If the market 'corrected' twenty percent ( 1500+ points! ) , these folks who got in less than a year ago would be a little above break-even. Given the 'buy and hold mentality', these fund holders are unlikely to bolt from the market. They are more likely to hold on for a ten, twenty, or more percent loss. Especially given that most are playing with retirement money, and do not perceive an immediate need for the money. The caveat here is, at some point the loss becomes too much to bear psychologically. That is the point of real panic selling, "For whatever you can get me! Get me out now! Sell at the market!" MF managers on the other hand? Really got to go now, BBL.

Ted, I don't have a redhead joke handy but I'll keep it in mind. The trouble is I have a redheaded sister and my secretary is redheaded. I have to mind my manners. I'm getting geared up to watch the Jazz again in an hour. I hope that they don't flop over and play dead like they did the last half of the game Wednesday.

Ted, I don't have a redhead joke handy but I'll keep it in mind. The trouble is I have a redheaded sister and my secretary is redheaded. I have to mind my manners. I'm getting geared up to watch the Jazz again in an hour. I hope that they don't flop over and play dead like they did the last half of the game Wednesday.

George Cole: After reading the apocalyptic thread from earlier this afternoon, I have been thinking about how that sudden dislocation would take place.

The volume of funds flowing into MFs is staggering and while it has slowed, it sure as hell hasn't stopped. Someone earlier quoted 5 billion a week. That would act like a gigantic inertial wheel mitigating the initial departure of the smart money. I assume that, it is the departure of smart that will begin to unhinge the market.

The funds, from all appearances, make up the bulk of current activity. Pension funds are also slow to move as well.

The question in my mind is this: Is the departure of the smart money enough to overcome the natural momentum of fund buying and thereby allow a sudden downdraft to occur? The reason I am wondering about the validity of major dislocation, is because we have never experienced this amount of money in stocks that is not likely to pulled with 200 or 300 point down move. .... I am assuming, of course, that there is not an outside event that will frighten the crap out of all of us. ...... As usual, I probably don't understand all of the pieces.

George Cole: After reading the apocalyptic thread from earlier this afternoon, I have been thinking about how that sudden dislocation would take place.

The volume of funds flowing into MFs is staggering and while it has slowed, it sure as hell hasn't stopped. Someone earlier quoted 5 billion a week. That would act like a gigantic inertial wheel mitigating the initial departure of the smart money. I assume that, it is the departure of smart that will begin to unhinge the market.

The funds, from all appearances, make up the bulk of current activity. Pension funds are also slow to move as well.

The question in my mind is this: Is the departure of the smart money enough to overcome the natural momentum of fund buying and thereby allow a sudden downdraft to occur? The reason I am wondering about the validity of major dislocation, is because we have never experienced this amount of money in stocks that is not likely to pulled with 200 or 300 point down move. .... I am assuming, of course, that there is not an outside event that will frighten the crap out of all of us. ...... As usual, I probably don't understand all of the pieces.

LSteve @raised eyebrows: "Tweener" - good one! The more I talk to people, the more in becomes plain to see that the younger you are the more sober you are. Granted I don't much talk to the under 25 crowd, but the ones around 30 seem to be low keyed and will not talk much about the future or economics. They seem to be more independent and are not relying upon someone or something else to provide for them in the coming years.

When I sat down and did that post I wasn't angry, though after printing it out and going over it, a few parts read that way. As most have already figured out when I used the term "boomer" it was in regards to that humanist/enviro-liberal mentality that is so prevalent today. That New Economics thinking - this time its different, we are all going to get rich, 20 year economic prosperity , business cycles are history, they owe it to us, vote for my favorite entitlements programs, what - the DOW went up only 65 points today, soak the rich, the day of judgment will never happen, global village idiots, John Law hero worship, Keynesian doublethink kind of person. The exact kind that is in control of americas future right now. The kind of person who will not think twice about selling the coutry down the river in order to get elected, and who will be written about in the new history books about how they ruined the economy for furture generations.

As to the CB's selling all the gold that they have, why not? Wish that they would so that we will no longer "need" them anymore. But I wouldn't count on it. Better odds in them trying to take all of yours away...

LSteve @raised eyebrows: "Tweener" - good one! The more I talk to people, the more in becomes plain to see that the younger you are the more sober you are. Granted I don't much talk to the under 25 crowd, but the ones around 30 seem to be low keyed and will not talk much about the future or economics. They seem to be more independent and are not relying upon someone or something else to provide for them in the coming years.

When I sat down and did that post I wasn't angry, though after printing it out and going over it, a few parts read that way. As most have already figured out when I used the term "boomer" it was in regards to that humanist/enviro-liberal mentality that is so prevalent today. That New Economics thinking - this time its different, we are all going to get rich, 20 year economic prosperity , business cycles are history, they owe it to us, vote for my favorite entitlements programs, what - the DOW went up only 65 points today, soak the rich, the day of judgment will never happen, global village idiots, John Law hero worship, Keynesian doublethink kind of person. The exact kind that is in control of americas future right now. The kind of person who will not think twice about selling the coutry down the river in order to get elected, and who will be written about in the new history books about how they ruined the economy for furture generations.

As to the CB's selling all the gold that they have, why not? Wish that they would so that we will no longer "need" them anymore. But I wouldn't count on it. Better odds in them trying to take all of yours away...

Panda: You either have a triangle OR A REVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS FORMING

Panda: You either have a triangle OR A REVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS FORMING

Ted: You and I could begin a thread on just the mechanics of splitting firewood ( I do have a system ) but I believe it would exceed the forebearance of our fellows. Even more so than that dreadful SS thread and feeling good about helping humanity .... sans pro bono. Of course. ..... If you like, feel free to email me and we can discuss it.

Ted: You and I could begin a thread on just the mechanics of splitting firewood ( I do have a system ) but I believe it would exceed the forebearance of our fellows. Even more so than that dreadful SS thread and feeling good about helping humanity .... sans pro bono. Of course. ..... If you like, feel free to email me and we can discuss it.

Market maven George S. Cole believes secular market reversals are near: Financials DOWN & Hard Assets UP, perhaps reminiscent of 1930s & 1970s. Cole Market Insights:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html

Market maven George S. Cole believes secular market reversals are near: Financials DOWN & Hard Assets UP, perhaps reminiscent of 1930s & 1970s. Cole Market Insights:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html

America has experienced bank "runs" and stock market "crashes." Now get ready for granddaddy of them all - the great American mutual fund "run." Appearing Saturday at your FAVORITE theater

America has experienced bank "runs" and stock market "crashes." Now get ready for granddaddy of them all - the great American mutual fund "run." Appearing Saturday at your FAVORITE theater

I never ceased to be amazed by the stuff that shows up at this site!

LSteve: The idea of gold being a Gen-X favored asset is both personally amazing and yet VERY thought provoking. In some ways this may be one of the more profound observations posted here. Hmmm. Very interesting! I have had a few conversations with tweeners and gen-x'ers and I have been very surprised at how sophisticated their world outlook is. The two who I had a chance to talk about things like Vince Foster, etc. not only were very aware of this issue but both had watched the Noam Chomsky's documentary "Manufacturing Consent". Gads! I thought I was kind of leading edge on some of these issues and am now starting to feel a bit behind!!

If this is the level of sophistication for a large portion of the tweeners snd gen-x'ers out there, the Clinton Administration ( and the people behind it ) are toast.

I never ceased to be amazed by the stuff that shows up at this site!

LSteve: The idea of gold being a Gen-X favored asset is both personally amazing and yet VERY thought provoking. In some ways this may be one of the more profound observations posted here. Hmmm. Very interesting! I have had a few conversations with tweeners and gen-x'ers and I have been very surprised at how sophisticated their world outlook is. The two who I had a chance to talk about things like Vince Foster, etc. not only were very aware of this issue but both had watched the Noam Chomsky's documentary "Manufacturing Consent". Gads! I thought I was kind of leading edge on some of these issues and am now starting to feel a bit behind!!

If this is the level of sophistication for a large portion of the tweeners snd gen-x'ers out there, the Clinton Administration ( and the people behind it ) are toast.

George S. Cole: Beyond a question of a doubt the developments in palladium and the weak response by gold to that incredibly bearish fed report must be testing the shorts intestinal fortitude to the utmost. Excellent character development what!!

TTFN

George S. Cole: Beyond a question of a doubt the developments in palladium and the weak response by gold to that incredibly bearish fed report must be testing the shorts intestinal fortitude to the utmost. Excellent character development what!!

TTFN

ALL: ( Especially GEORGE S. COLE, VRONSKY, STEVE PUETZ ) many of us believe that a top and crash/meltdown are imminent. George - you believe that around 8000 DOW is the high water mark. What I don't understand at the moment is this: barring some sort of unexpected triggering event - an earthquake in Japan, a war in Europe, Bill going to jail, etc. - what would cause it to go down? Do you feel it would it just melt down due to its own weight? Strange events stimulating a market collapse I understand but what if nothing happens to upset the apple cart?

ALL: ( Especially GEORGE S. COLE, VRONSKY, STEVE PUETZ ) many of us believe that a top and crash/meltdown are imminent. George - you believe that around 8000 DOW is the high water mark. What I don't understand at the moment is this: barring some sort of unexpected triggering event - an earthquake in Japan, a war in Europe, Bill going to jail, etc. - what would cause it to go down? Do you feel it would it just melt down due to its own weight? Strange events stimulating a market collapse I understand but what if nothing happens to upset the apple cart?

Ted,

Living w/o electricity for 7 years??!? Been in the backwoods? Are you sure your not Ted K. chatting online from jail??

Ted,

Living w/o electricity for 7 years??!? Been in the backwoods? Are you sure your not Ted K. chatting online from jail??

UNI: No, I am. 'N yer payin' fer me ISP.

UNI: No, I am. 'N yer payin' fer me ISP.

( ACW--cb's dumping gold ) This report doesn't make sense. My calculations show that 1.11 bln oz is about 42000 ton ( 12 oz.--2200 lb ) which at $325 per oz average sales price comes to 360 billion dollars. No way IMHO would gold bottom at $309--more like $200 per ounze taking out virtually all mining companies and investors.
It seems that it would be a lot wiser for central banks to revalue their holdings at market price ( whatever that would be after several occillations ) , and have formal agreements to allow a maximum sales of 5% of holdings in any one year. In twenty years the CB's would make tons more money, and allow a smooth transition to free market gold management.

( ACW--cb's dumping gold ) This report doesn't make sense. My calculations show that 1.11 bln oz is about 42000 ton ( 12 oz.--2200 lb ) which at $325 per oz average sales price comes to 360 billion dollars. No way IMHO would gold bottom at $309--more like $200 per ounze taking out virtually all mining companies and investors.
It seems that it would be a lot wiser for central banks to revalue their holdings at market price ( whatever that would be after several occillations ) , and have formal agreements to allow a maximum sales of 5% of holdings in any one year. In twenty years the CB's would make tons more money, and allow a smooth transition to free market gold management.

Strad: I hear yer fiddle. I think we are on the same wavelength. ( I'd say sheet but I don't read music )

Strad: I hear yer fiddle. I think we are on the same wavelength. ( I'd say sheet but I don't read music )

Strad Master: I just ran through some calculations.
Price-to-book ratio DJIA: 1987 - 2.72, 1929 - 4.03, 6-13-97 - 5.82 !!!
Price-to-book ratio S&P: 1987 - 2.50, 1929 - 3.20, 6-13-97 - 5.13 !!!
Dividend yields 6-13-97: DJIA - 1.63%, S&P 500 - 1.73%
Price-to-earnings 6-13-97: DJIA - 20.6, S&P 500 - 22.2
All of these valuation measures make the 1929 speculation look like small potatoes. It appears that much of the move this week was short-covering and speculation in the S&P 500 futures.

Look at these advance-decline numbers this week on the O-T-C market:
# of advances ( Monday thru Friday ) : 2042, 1960, 2007, 2147, 2175
# pf declines ( Monday thru Friday ) : 1981, 2149, 2019, 1928, 2084
About a scratch for the week.

Yes, the market could easily fall on its own weight. Especially when it's in the stratosphere like it is today.

Strad Master: I just ran through some calculations.
Price-to-book ratio DJIA: 1987 - 2.72, 1929 - 4.03, 6-13-97 - 5.82 !!!
Price-to-book ratio S&P: 1987 - 2.50, 1929 - 3.20, 6-13-97 - 5.13 !!!
Dividend yields 6-13-97: DJIA - 1.63%, S&P 500 - 1.73%
Price-to-earnings 6-13-97: DJIA - 20.6, S&P 500 - 22.2
All of these valuation measures make the 1929 speculation look like small potatoes. It appears that much of the move this week was short-covering and speculation in the S&P 500 futures.

Look at these advance-decline numbers this week on the O-T-C market:
# of advances ( Monday thru Friday ) : 2042, 1960, 2007, 2147, 2175
# pf declines ( Monday thru Friday ) : 1981, 2149, 2019, 1928, 2084
About a scratch for the week.

Yes, the market could easily fall on its own weight. Especially when it's in the stratosphere like it is today.

Everyone must be watching the Bulls vs. Jazz. No posting for 45 minutes.
I can't find it now, but last-night someone said there was a review of "Total Collapse" in some recent publication. Whoever sent that notice, could you send me a copy of that review at:
Steve Puetz, 2800 Wilshire, West Lafayette, In 47906. Thanks.

Everyone must be watching the Bulls vs. Jazz. No posting for 45 minutes.
I can't find it now, but last-night someone said there was a review of "Total Collapse" in some recent publication. Whoever sent that notice, could you send me a copy of that review at:
Steve Puetz, 2800 Wilshire, West Lafayette, In 47906. Thanks.

One of US best-known Analysts in last 20 years, James Dines, shares bullish report on Platinum & Palladium - & their impact on Gold. He likes Stillwater Mining. See Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html

One of US best-known Analysts in last 20 years, James Dines, shares bullish report on Platinum & Palladium - & their impact on Gold. He likes Stillwater Mining. See Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html

GEORGE S. COLE: Would be so kind as to tell us all when you do go into the Rydex Ursa? Many thanks.

GEORGE S. COLE: Would be so kind as to tell us all when you do go into the Rydex Ursa? Many thanks.

STEVE PUETZ: I really appreciate all the numbers ( although I'm sure they mean far mor to you than to a relatie novice like me ) . Nonetheless, I guess an implosion IS possible without an obvious trigger. Thanks for your input.

STEVE PUETZ: I really appreciate all the numbers ( although I'm sure they mean far mor to you than to a relatie novice like me ) . Nonetheless, I guess an implosion IS possible without an obvious trigger. Thanks for your input.

O Gold! I still prefer thee unto paper,
Which makes bank credit like a bark of vapour. ( Byron )

To atone for my sins... I bought a couple of gold coins today. A couple, is that all? Yes but they are proofs and I paid a hefty premium. The absolute worst way to buy gold. Ill consider it penance.

O Gold! I still prefer thee unto paper,
Which makes bank credit like a bark of vapour. ( Byron )

To atone for my sins... I bought a couple of gold coins today. A couple, is that all? Yes but they are proofs and I paid a hefty premium. The absolute worst way to buy gold. Ill consider it penance.

RJ: Mea Culpa, Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa. You are forgiven.

RJ: Mea Culpa, Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa. You are forgiven.

Strad: Stop looking for an obvious event. The event that will reverse the markets is good old supply and demand. There will be no headline ,at least initially, like '29 and Japan '90. This current parabolic upswing ala '29 will exhaust demand. The ultimate causes of decline which we will hear about will be the reports of recession / depression /falling dollar/higher deficits which will be reported heavily after the Dow tumbles. NEWS follows Price! Gold may finally have its day when financials take it on the nose! THe inevitable maybe not close in price but definitely close in time. Sunnier days are coming when financials fall.

Strad: Stop looking for an obvious event. The event that will reverse the markets is good old supply and demand. There will be no headline ,at least initially, like '29 and Japan '90. This current parabolic upswing ala '29 will exhaust demand. The ultimate causes of decline which we will hear about will be the reports of recession / depression /falling dollar/higher deficits which will be reported heavily after the Dow tumbles. NEWS follows Price! Gold may finally have its day when financials take it on the nose! THe inevitable maybe not close in price but definitely close in time. Sunnier days are coming when financials fall.

Unless my bifocals are badly fogged up, I think I just saw a comment
about Steve Shobin of Lehman Bros. putting out a buy on gold stocks.
Maybe I'm dreaming, but check out; http://www.geocities.com/wallstreet/
4915/index.html Not being totally braindead, I think he just told us
all what is about to happen. Nite.

Unless my bifocals are badly fogged up, I think I just saw a comment
about Steve Shobin of Lehman Bros. putting out a buy on gold stocks.
Maybe I'm dreaming, but check out; http://www.geocities.com/wallstreet/
4915/index.html Not being totally braindead, I think he just told us
all what is about to happen. Nite.

Unless my bifocals are badly fogged up, I think I just saw a comment
about Steve Shobin of Lehman Bros. putting out a buy on gold stocks.
Maybe I'm dreaming, but check out; http://www.geocities.com/wallstreet/
4915/index.html Not being totally braindead, I think he just told us
all what is about to happen. Nite.

Unless my bifocals are badly fogged up, I think I just saw a comment
about Steve Shobin of Lehman Bros. putting out a buy on gold stocks.
Maybe I'm dreaming, but check out; http://www.geocities.com/wallstreet/
4915/index.html Not being totally braindead, I think he just told us
all what is about to happen. Nite.

SORRY, looks like the line break will not access the URL when you hit
it. Type it in and you will get in.

SORRY, looks like the line break will not access the URL when you hit
it. Type it in and you will get in.

ALL...Tops and bottoms are almost always marked by "spikes". Many of you think that the metals will just smooth over at the bottom and others say the stock market will just smooth over at the top. I don't think so. I have witnessed every top and bottom in the metals since 1974 in real time. They all had "spikes". For no reason can I believe this one to be different. It may not look like much on a weekly 5 minute chart, but I believe the spike is necessary to move stops out of the commodity markets so a trend can reverse. Gold spikes downward may be $5-10 into new territory and silver spikes may be $.40-.60 downward. They generally are swift ( minutes ) and show as big blips on the daily real time charts. Tops generally are new tops of a very small degree after a downward motion of a few days and almost always are tested on the upside at least once more. On 2 of the downward spikes I got stopped out of half of very large positions that kept me from maximizing profits. One came within cents of stopping out the other half. Believe me, I remember them well !!!!! Stock market tops and bottoms I have not watched with the same great intensity and sense of urgency, but have none the less seen them.

ALL...Tops and bottoms are almost always marked by "spikes". Many of you think that the metals will just smooth over at the bottom and others say the stock market will just smooth over at the top. I don't think so. I have witnessed every top and bottom in the metals since 1974 in real time. They all had "spikes". For no reason can I believe this one to be different. It may not look like much on a weekly 5 minute chart, but I believe the spike is necessary to move stops out of the commodity markets so a trend can reverse. Gold spikes downward may be $5-10 into new territory and silver spikes may be $.40-.60 downward. They generally are swift ( minutes ) and show as big blips on the daily real time charts. Tops generally are new tops of a very small degree after a downward motion of a few days and almost always are tested on the upside at least once more. On 2 of the downward spikes I got stopped out of half of very large positions that kept me from maximizing profits. One came within cents of stopping out the other half. Believe me, I remember them well !!!!! Stock market tops and bottoms I have not watched with the same great intensity and sense of urgency, but have none the less seen them.

If anybody read my last post and had the idea of watching for the downward spike to begin to add contracts, it can happen while you are gone to the "can" or just not paying attention. If you are paying attention and try to place a hurried order the call will be "fast markets" and you will not be filled. You will have to be holding your positions with stops that will not take you out, or have orders on the floor that are "open" or "GTC". Now I don't recall any "fast markets" in the metals since 1993. Have any rules changed since then ????

If anybody read my last post and had the idea of watching for the downward spike to begin to add contracts, it can happen while you are gone to the "can" or just not paying attention. If you are paying attention and try to place a hurried order the call will be "fast markets" and you will not be filled. You will have to be holding your positions with stops that will not take you out, or have orders on the floor that are "open" or "GTC". Now I don't recall any "fast markets" in the metals since 1993. Have any rules changed since then ????

This chart is not a gold chart, but it is interesting never the less. It is a weekly chart of the Dow. In the past nine weeks we have had three weeks with 300+ point gains. If this rate of increase continues, it is Dow 9000 by the end of the year. Some how I just don't think it's in the cards though. If I guess at my bond chart correctly ( uh oh! ) , bonds score their final gains in this month and break 7.25% in October ( ! ) . This is all MVHO, of course. This is based purely on drawing straight lines. No magic formulas or any thing else. The Dow breaking? Look at the chart and form your own opinion, and yes, markets do fall of their own weight! What a noise this one will make! The danger here is in squeezed shorts and weak hands jumping in for the 'killing of a lifetime'. This could go on for another week or two like this, then oh boy! If it cools off, a trading range?

This chart is not a gold chart, but it is interesting never the less. It is a weekly chart of the Dow. In the past nine weeks we have had three weeks with 300+ point gains. If this rate of increase continues, it is Dow 9000 by the end of the year. Some how I just don't think it's in the cards though. If I guess at my bond chart correctly ( uh oh! ) , bonds score their final gains in this month and break 7.25% in October ( ! ) . This is all MVHO, of course. This is based purely on drawing straight lines. No magic formulas or any thing else. The Dow breaking? Look at the chart and form your own opinion, and yes, markets do fall of their own weight! What a noise this one will make! The danger here is in squeezed shorts and weak hands jumping in for the 'killing of a lifetime'. This could go on for another week or two like this, then oh boy! If it cools off, a trading range?

Final comment for the evening; Just think of it, 4.5% a week on your money. Something akin to interest rates associated with third world currencies. I guess our printing presses are better though. :- ) )
After all, we now have new fifty Dollar bills to go with our Monopoly Money hundred Dollar bills. :- ) ) And look at all the stox we can buy with them! BTW, I think the S&P500 was up 4.1% this week. Take that, you silly NOW checking account! let's see, 1.041^50 = 7.46, so if I put a Dollar in today, in a year, I get $7.46. Hmmmmm, if I put $10,000 in I get $74,600..... Why work? :- ) ) :- ) ) They're coming to take me away, Ha Ha He He... To the funny farm where life is always wonderful!
Good night all!

Final comment for the evening; Just think of it, 4.5% a week on your money. Something akin to interest rates associated with third world currencies. I guess our printing presses are better though. :- ) )
After all, we now have new fifty Dollar bills to go with our Monopoly Money hundred Dollar bills. :- ) ) And look at all the stox we can buy with them! BTW, I think the S&P500 was up 4.1% this week. Take that, you silly NOW checking account! let's see, 1.041^50 = 7.46, so if I put a Dollar in today, in a year, I get $7.46. Hmmmmm, if I put $10,000 in I get $74,600..... Why work? :- ) ) :- ) ) They're coming to take me away, Ha Ha He He... To the funny farm where life is always wonderful!
Good night all!

PANDA and others .....While I am inclined to believe as do you that the DOW is in need of a steep correction, keep in mind that a tremendous amount of "paper money" has been created all over the world in the past few years. Almost every stock market in the world has seen gains that few would have ever expected. Maybe, just maybe, along with all the yuppie money from the US, this money may be looking for quality and the US is the current place of choice to park it. Look at Hong Cong. How many billions have been made there that may now be looking for a safe to park. Even if there is some risk in the US stock market right now, it still may be safer than left in HK for some people who may not be in favor with the incoming Chineese government. This upward trend in the DOW could continue for a long time and make even 7750 look cheap. This could also be the reason for the long bond having a run up. It is a fairly good place to park for a while. Who knows how high we will go ?????

PANDA and others .....While I am inclined to believe as do you that the DOW is in need of a steep correction, keep in mind that a tremendous amount of "paper money" has been created all over the world in the past few years. Almost every stock market in the world has seen gains that few would have ever expected. Maybe, just maybe, along with all the yuppie money from the US, this money may be looking for quality and the US is the current place of choice to park it. Look at Hong Cong. How many billions have been made there that may now be looking for a safe to park. Even if there is some risk in the US stock market right now, it still may be safer than left in HK for some people who may not be in favor with the incoming Chineese government. This upward trend in the DOW could continue for a long time and make even 7750 look cheap. This could also be the reason for the long bond having a run up. It is a fairly good place to park for a while. Who knows how high we will go ?????

Nailz: I could not disagree with you more about 'SPIKES' being needed to indicate reversals. Witness the rolling and bottoming trend of the XAU from December 1992 to the beginning of February 1993, which began a fabulously good bull market in gold stocks. SPIKES are definitely not required to mark a trend reversal - especially big reversals.

Nailz: I could not disagree with you more about 'SPIKES' being needed to indicate reversals. Witness the rolling and bottoming trend of the XAU from December 1992 to the beginning of February 1993, which began a fabulously good bull market in gold stocks. SPIKES are definitely not required to mark a trend reversal - especially big reversals.

Bulls win....AGAIN!

Bulls win....AGAIN!

VRONSKY....Look at my post again. I specifically mentioned the metals. I have no clue as to the XAUs performance in the past. I am trading it now because it has much more volitility than gold, so later I will know about the movements in it. The past of the XAU is a mystery to me. Remember I specifically said metals. It would be of great interest to me to have those of you astute in other markets to allow me to partake of you sagasity.

VRONSKY....Look at my post again. I specifically mentioned the metals. I have no clue as to the XAUs performance in the past. I am trading it now because it has much more volitility than gold, so later I will know about the movements in it. The past of the XAU is a mystery to me. Remember I specifically said metals. It would be of great interest to me to have those of you astute in other markets to allow me to partake of you sagasity.