Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

Steve Puetz
(Tue Jun 17 1997 00:10)
Scott @ the bank
Scott: A stock market crash will be the best thing for gold since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971. Gold and silver should soar as investors rush to the metals in a "flight to quality." Gold stocks will probably be torn between collapsing stock values and rising gold prices. They may sell off during the crash, but they should more than recover after it. Wait until the crash to pick up bargains in gold shares.

The Judge
(Tue Jun 17 1997 00:14)
@ heaven
Crystal Ball, 10 Hail Mary's and 2 Rosaries as penance for that joke.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 00:20)
Steve Puetz : Thanks for your tip, I have some gold shares that are about 7c at the lowest ( 70c highest in 1994 ) and I bought at 9c. If we get a small rally soon, I think they may go to 0.105c. I'm woundering whether a crash will knock me off. Perhaps I may just have to hang on for ride eh!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 00:21)
Hi all! Been lurking and learning for some time now. It is quite addicting just to lurk. Someday I will have something decent to pass on. Jake Bernstein ( he is a SERIOUS trader so don't turn up the noses ) has a web page that he updates weekly. hit reload for this weeks commentary. Many will find this interesting.
Thanks for your time...

Big Chief Gold Bull
(Tue Jun 17 1997 00:25)
Goldum Pow Wow in Prague

HOW: Great White banker's ( sharkums ) and broker's have-um
the confidence that great white General Custer havum,
before we whippum ass at Little Bighorn.
Only Frenchum central banker Patat speakum truth, him
readum Pomboy letter.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 01:39)
Smokin'up a storm
CHEROKEE-good to see you posting again. I dont post very often but lurk every night. I not only enjoy your posts but find that i cant disagree with you on anything. I've been a strong believer in the laws of nature and that they encompass EVERY aspect of our lives. Fool with Mom Nature and eventually, She will be knocking at your door. Action / Reacttion ---such a simple concept , but is ignored time and time again.

Keep up the great posts and happy trading.


John Disney
(Tue Jun 17 1997 01:58)
For the PolarBear
If you enter DD consolidation via buffels ( at 1.3:1 )
or Blyvoor ( at 5:1 RSA share basis ) you do not get the
DD option.
The new option applies to OLD holders of DD stock ( 50
options per 100 shares ) . All outstanding options of DD
are rolled into the new option. Blyvoor options are to
be rolled into the new options at 5:1.
For example, IF DD trades at 21 and you value the
option at 6 rand then when the consolidation takes
place, the DD stock goes "ex" ( explained perfectly
by someone else ) , and drops by 3 rand ( value half an option
per share ) to 18. Thus the break even value of a
buffels share is 18/1.3 = 13.85 and the bev of Blydy
is 18/5 = 3.6. Buffels is trading below bev at 12 ish
and I should buy more with bags of cash from lebowa
sale. However I already have too much and this
consolidation is like a dog's breakfast and Im not
really sure Ive valued the option right but it seems
OK ( going via buffels is like a free 15% more DD ) .
For adr holders the above would set blydy adr at
3.6*3/4.5 = $2.4 which is where it is. So my
assumptions on Buffels look fine. I am told that the
price of Buffels is out of line because some big
shareholders wanted a better deal and are peed off
and seem to be punishing themselves by selling into
weak market. Sorry to be so wordy and hope I made no

Bernatz de Ventadorm
(Tue Jun 17 1997 02:11)
le_fou@watch zee girls
For Monsiour Mooney
About zee poor King Louis an what you zay about
heez waff "influence heem unduly" - As zey say in zee
lan down undair "you got zat right mite" by dam.
For Monsiour RJ - You write in zee Engleesh so
vairy well - Ah lak zee part about zee "child bearing
heeps" - eet -ow you zay - turm me on a leetle

Walter Huston
(Tue Jun 17 1997 02:14)
treasure@Sierra Madre
Its the GOLD that does it. Never knew a prospector that died rich

John Disney
(Tue Jun 17 1997 02:25)
for Polarbear
Missed your query about effectiveness certified letter to
broker telling him not to sell options. I doubt this will work
but you can try. I think the problem lies with ADR issuing banks.
Check it out first.Maybe Im wrong. I hope so. Check with Brokerman.
Give him incentive to do homework and get facts.Mention you have
large baseball bat in garage. Maybe I worry over nothing

Strad Master
(Tue Jun 17 1997 02:57)
Does this make sense?
ESTE: I am a dyed-in-the-wool skeptic myself and suspect that most of astrology on its face is pure bunk. The idea that stars at such vast distances could in any way, shape or form, influence the lives of us lowly humans is absolutely ludicrous. However, having experienced an occasional remearkable prediction based on astrology I find myself seeking a more terrestrial explanation. I look at it this way: whatever value astrology has ( or for that matter any form of divination ) comes not from the method itself but from the deeper intuition of the practitioner. Undoubtedly, there are people who possess remarkable intuitive skills - skills which they may not be fully aware of or even able to quantify but which they can tap into with great ease. Such skills also are not necessarily all that mystical. The ability of a human to observe the behavior of an individual, learn from those observations, and extrapolate to predict the behaviour of others in similar circumstances is nothing short of mirabculous in appearance but is actually quite a mundane ability that we all posses to one degree or another. Technical analysis of markets, in some respects, relies on the same sort of observational ability - and I'm sure you'll agree that some do it far beter than others. Astrology, then, merely provides a framework for projecting out the astrologer's intuitive processes in a way that can be helpful to the person wishing to understand their life better. So, it doesn't really matter whether Jupiter is really in Aquarius or Pisces - only the intuitive abilities of the astrologer make the difference. Mike Sheller - any comments?

(Tue Jun 17 1997 02:58)
Ron @12:43: Playing catch up here ..... and I gotta say that any man who quotes that ole reprobate, Ambrose Bierce, hates kids and depises dogs; must have some redeeming qualities. ....... ( :- ) ) Great collection of one liners, Ron.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 04:37)
Mad Republican
John Disney.... yours of Mon. 03:16. Don't read this. Don't put words in my mouth, and quote me accurately. I do not want more government. I want less government! I want the super rich ( defined in previous post ) and the corporations they control, and use to evade taxes, to pay their fair share. Page 53 of the 1040 form, schedule Y-1, 39.6% of the amount over $256,500. How many of the 400 Forbes billionaires do you think fairly paid 39.6% of the amount over $256,500 like so many millions of Americans did?

I have voted Republican for 40 years! The next election might be the end of that streak. This Republican leadership can not get their heads on straight! The disaster bill was a public relations disaster. And I can not believe they are trying to eliminate the minimum corporation income tax. I fully expect some Republican nut with his five minutes to suggest every disabled American should have to work for his government check.

John Disney
(Tue Jun 17 1997 06:02)
For Bernie
How can you expect me to quote you accurately if I refuse to read
your posts ?? You ask too much. I heard on the grapevine that you vote
Republican - Not good but better than voting Democrat - Dont read this either

(Tue Jun 17 1997 06:13)
OH....happy trading.....

George S. Cole
(Tue Jun 17 1997 06:21)
gold bullion and gold stocks
August gold down $1.20 a few minute ago as yet another rally fizzles. Again goes to show that when gold stocks and gold bullion move in opposite directions, trust the stocks. Still looks like bullion will break $340 on the downside and the stocks will be hit by a final washout before this bear ends.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jun 17 1997 06:39)
Where does one begin?
STRADMASTER: Your comments are very wise for one who is not conversant with the ancient art. Except that it DOES matter whether Jupiter is in Aquarius or Pisces. There are most definitely specific mathematical actualities to be dealt with in astrology. The intuitive aspect you sagaciously divine is indeed important as well. Just as it is important for any scientist to make that extra leap when all the "facts" are before him/her. That is the leap which makes the difference between a brilliant scientist and a mere statistician, or a good astrologer and a bad one. I am not a mystic, and astrology is not mystical. Mysticism is action and inspiration that cannot be explained in a rational, systematic manner. Had we the time, I could outline for you the basis of astrology in a rational way that would allow you to formulate questions. Those questions would move you along to a noetic understanding, and my further instruction would make sense, etc. But that is a course of study, and will work with anything teachable. There is a system to the structure of the zodiac which is the essential abstract metaphysics of the circle ( 360 degrees ) and its divisions . In a sense, just as the Eliott Wave is really a reflection of the Octave in nature, so the Zodiac is a technical pattern for the point emerging out of nothing, and becoming the full circle. There is NOTHING in this universe, seen and unseen, that is not connected to something else. Distance ( the stars, etc ) is relative and an illusion. You must think beyond the boundaries of the ordinary which you have been fed by narrow minds for too long. We are really discussing the philosophy of manifestation, and ORDER of manifestation of things. In its "mundane" applications, astrology can very often isolate time windows of activity for the entities analyzed ( people, corporations, nations, institutions, anything with a "birth date" ) In its esoteric and highly philosophical/metaphysical applications it can describe the very structure of what we think is "reality." Few have used it for that purpose, but then that is another story. Since you are not familiar with the actual practice of astrology ( to be so would require several years of study and utilization of what has been learned, just like music ) you will just have to take my word that the technical application in the right hands can provide some very useful information. Information that would be impossible to obtain by other, more conventional ( and far more deluded ) means. Yes, intuition is the difference between inspired astrology and the merely mundane. But is this not so in trading, the arts, philosophy, medicine, science, and even fishing and boxing? Astrology, like medicine, is an ART based on SCIENCE. There are good doctors and bad ones. Some even kill people. I tremble at the day when everyone becomes "an astrologer." I will then have to go off and truly become a mystic.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jun 17 1997 06:48)
Now I'm wide awake
EB: Welcome. If we can't turn up our noses at SOMEONE now and then, we might as well be watching TV. RJ: Give me this - around May 22 or so I told QT in these hallowed halls that the top of the Palladium rally would be a run to 240 best case scenario. While I admit it came faster than I thought, and I was a bit skeptical about it maxing out there, it was indeed prescient. No, I didn't use any horoscopes either. Just price chart analysis. Until August gold goes below 341, I'm sticking with a rally ahead. BERNATZ: Why is it you always bring tears of laughter to my eyes? You have such away with words.
VRONSKY: The first thing I did in basic training on my first KP was to sneak into the mess sergeant's office and copy down the recipe for SOS. It was for a hundred fifty people, so I naturally had to invite lots of folks the first time I made it. I've made it ever since. Even have a vegetarian recipe for it for Ted.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 06:56)
EBN Gold down 1.05....What ever happened to Shorty Bull??

(Tue Jun 17 1997 07:13)
HI JIN: Good post at 6:13....Sounds like Thailand took another big hit on Tuesday's trading...hahaha...CPI out in 77 minutes!..Mike Sheller ( 6:48 ) Nice to know the vegetarians weren't forgotton...

(Tue Jun 17 1997 07:39)
Tort: 17 years and counting and counting fer me...pretty

(Tue Jun 17 1997 07:42)
Joke of the morn
Good morning ted and the rest of you fine fellow and ladies. 17, eh? Not bad. Must be a keeper. Investing in the gold market reminds me of the following story.

A man travels to Spain and goes to a Madrid restaurant for a
late dinner. He orders the house special and he is brought a
plate with potatoes, corn, and two large meaty objects.

"What's this?" he asks.

"Cojones, senor," the waiter replies.

"What are cojones?" the man asks.

"Cojones," the waiter explains, "are the testicles of the bull
who lost at the arena this afternoon."

At first the man is disgusted, but being the adventurous type,
he decides to try this local delicacy. To his amazement,
it is quite delicious. In fact, it is so good that he decides to
come back again the next night and order it again. This
time, the waiter brings out the plate, but the meaty objects are
much smaller.

"What's this?" he asks the waiter.

"Cojones, senor," the waiter replies.

"No, no," the man objects. "I had cojones yesterday and they
were much bigger than these."

"Senor," the waiter explains, "the bull does not lose every

(Tue Jun 17 1997 07:43)
S.E.T. down 13.83 ( 2.70% ) ...Taiwan @ seven year high...CPI in 47 minutes!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 07:47)
Tort ( 7:42 ) stray cats either!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 07:52)
Bonus joke
George Cole, I think we've got a bear with nine lives in this gold market. Given that, a bear story is in order appropriate for the time.s

Bill's all excited about his new rifle. So, he goes bear hunting in

The first bear he sees is a little brown bear, and he kills it with his
first shot. Suddenly he feels a tap on his shoulder. He turns around to see a big black bear. The black bear says "You've got 2 choices: either I beat you to death or you French kiss me."
Bill thinks for a minute and then dutifully kisses the bear.

Bill's tongue is sore for 2 days and when he recovers he vows to take revenge. He goes back, finds the black bear and kills him.
Suddenly he feels a tap on his shoulder. He turns around to see a huge
grizzly is standing right behind him. The grizzly says: "That was a big mistake. You've got 2 choices: either I beat you to death or we kiss in the French way." Bill prepares for the kiss of a lifetime.

Now, Bill's tongue is really hurting, and he's outraged.
He goes back, finds the grizzly and shoots him at point blank range.
Suddenly he feels a tap on his shoulder. He turns around to find an
enormous polar bear. The polar bear says "You don't really come here for the hunting, do you?"

(Tue Jun 17 1997 08:33)
Tort: SICK...I love it! was almost unbearable....CPI= as expected..
CPI up 0.1% and the old core rate up 0.2%...but housing starts down more than expected ...down 4.8%......Bond up 3 ticks!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 08:37)
Long bond @ unch...make that minus 1....

(Tue Jun 17 1997 08:59)
George S. Cole: RE: 6:02. Why do you thing the upcoming decline for gold stocks that you see while be the "final washout"?

(Tue Jun 17 1997 09:01)
MGraves: Low flyin seagull overhead...SPLAT!...S+P futures not reacting well to CPI and housing data or they just decided to sell off all by their lonesome...S+P futures down 2.70 ...maybe we'll hit DOW 250 TODAY!

Lan Man
(Tue Jun 17 1997 09:02)
Flight To Quality
Rcvd the "Miles Franklin Quarterly" May/June issue yesterday. Quoted on the front page was non other than our esteemed Kitco poster - Steve Puetz. They quoted his March 21 newsletter in which Steve wrote "As the stock market crash gains intensity, expect worried investors to run to the financial safety of the precious metals in a Flight To Quality. The precious metals are the only monetary assets external to our collapsing credit system. Buy gold and silver for safety reasons."

The above statement reflects the number one reason to purchase gold and silver - For Safety Reasons. With the average net worth of the "baby boomers" at just $2,600., with margin debt having tripled in the last 6 years, with debt as a percent of annual disposable income exploding up from less than 70% to it's current level of 93%, with international dirivatives exceeding $60 trillion, with financial asset inflation ( read hyper inflation ) in the stock market, with the Euro less than 18 months from reality replacing 30-50% of US dollars now held as reserves, NOW is the time to Get Real and Buy Gold and Silver!

Besides, who said you can't take it with you?

George S. Cole
(Tue Jun 17 1997 09:18)
bulls and bears
Fundy: I still see the financial bull and gold bear changing places this summer. Only question is how high stocks go and how low gold and gold sink over the next month or two before the big reversal.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 09:22)
Nasty selling going on in London, European bourses off for the most part to. Gold seems to be rcovering a bit. Silver is up on EBN. Hope springs eternal!

Lan Man
(Tue Jun 17 1997 09:24)
Are They Running Out of Things to Say?
Notice how many negative press releases have come out in the past few days? With that one posted by Jin "Over 18moz of new gold seen set for market" they are now warning us all of "Potential Production". With CB's now holding 2/3 less of the above ground supplies than they did back in 1957, and talk by the US Fed to prompt other CB's to sell their gold, pretty soon we will have no reason to hold their paper currency, after all, we control the real money now - GOLD.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 09:29)
Right on! Now is the time to get in when all the chips are down, and
everybody and their grandmother is buying the Dow and selling Gold Calls....

(Tue Jun 17 1997 09:58)
Your Morning Smile from Canada - "To be stupid, selfish, an have good health are three requirements for happiness, though if stupidity is lacking, all is lost." -------- Gustave Flaubert

Conspiracy Nut
(Tue Jun 17 1997 10:16)
USSA Participants
Current List of BilderBurger Particpants from the USSA: ( No onions, please! )

P. Allaire - Xerox Corp.
A. Armacost - Brookings Inst.
R. Bartley - Wall Street Urinal
L. Bentson - Former Sec. of the Treasury
S. Berger - Ass. to the President of Security Affairs
F. Bergsten - Inst. for Inter. Economics
R. Bernstein - Book Critic, thats right, Book Critic!
J. Bryan - CEO Sara Lee Corp.
J. Corzine - CEO Goldman Sacks & Plunder
K. Dam - Prof. Univ. of Chicago Law School
O. Gadiesh, COB Bain Co.
L. Gerstner - CEO IBM Corp.
L. Hamilton - Indiana CongressCritter
R. Holbrooke - Former Ass. Sec. CS First Boston
M. Jacobi - Former Ass. Sec. of Commerce
V. Jordan - Senior Partner AGSHF LLP
H. Kissinger - Former Sec. of State and One Worlder
W. Lewis - Dir. McKinsey Global Inst.
W. McDonough - Pres. Fiat Currencies of New York
S. Nunn - Former GA Senator and Anti-Gun Weenie
J. Page - Chief Economist of One World Currency - World Bank
C. Powell - Former COB Joints Chiefs of Staff
D. Rockefeller - COB Chase Manhattan Bank
S. Rockefeller - Pres. WETA-TV
J. Sheinkman - COB Amalgamated something or other
L. Stahl - BubbleHead CBS
G. Stephanopoulos - Former Advisor to the Pres. on Covering His Assets
E. Vogel - Prof. of Socialism Harvard
P. Volcker - Former FedHead
S. Weiss - COB NSI
J. Whitehead - Former Dep. Sec of State
P. Wolfowitz - Former UnderSec. of Defense for Policy
C. Yost - Dir. Inst. Study of Diplomacy

The above come from either gov or fields in finance, industry, labour, education and the media.

Strad Master
(Tue Jun 17 1997 10:42)
MIKE SHELLER: Thanks for your thoughtful comments on my post regarding Astrology. I don't want to spend time now responding while the markets are open but I'll print it out, digest it and ( if time permits ) respond later tonight. OK? Never having had a chance to engage a professional astrologer in such a dialogue, I look forward to learning. more. The other altrnative is e-mail but I suspect many here might enjoy and benefit from the discusion. Thanks again.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 11:02)
on Astrology
Strand Master, I find your interpretation of Astrology the only possible one to justify its existence.

Mike Sheller, it isn't Astrology that has put man on the moon and developed the science that allows you to transmit your thoughts via computer. Astrology is not and will never be accepted as a science with all the rigorous checks and balances associated with it.
In today's world, as imperfect as it is, I can't see any place for Astrology.

Steve (Perth - Western Australia)
(Tue Jun 17 1997 11:47)
"Opening the door to another banking crisis". Article in the latest
Business Week.
Howdy from Perth. It was a fantastic day - 24 degrees Celsius, & no
rain. Not bad for the middle of winter!!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 12:15)
Bandwidth or Provider?
Man, oh, man! Can't get quotes from or EBN this morning. And I can get no more than the last few postings to Kitco. And in these mkts, too!! I'm becoming more and more convinced that a proprietary data feed is the only solution. I'd hate to find myself reliant on the web when the big crash comes and volume hits one billion. The web will be absolutely gridlocked on that day.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 12:25)
Ron -- We have that problem at times now. Don't need a billion share melt up or down, day to do it!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 12:25)
Ron -- We have that problem at times now. Don't a billion share melt up or down, day to do it!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 12:29)
Steve Puetz ( super stock market bear ) : Steve, you seem like a nice guy and this is NOT meant to be offensive but by your own admisson you missed the ENTIRE 15 year bull market so what makes you so sure you are suddenly correct on the stock market??? If you are a perpetual bear on the SM, eventually you will be correct but unless we go back and visit Rod Sterling and enter "the Twilight Zone" and then take a trip to the PAST, we'll never see DOW 300 let alone 250 again....I pay more attention to SM bulls ( that have been correct on the market so far ) that turn into SM bears....

(Tue Jun 17 1997 12:34)
Ron: A vast part of the Internet was down yesterday. Even our Intra-Day charts had problems. However, they are up to snuff again today. See XAU, DOW, Gold, Platinum, Palladium etc:

(Tue Jun 17 1997 12:39)
Mgraves: Flyin seagull turd about to drop on ya....Is Kitco veeeery slooow to anyooooone elseeee....or is it just meeeeeeeee...

(Tue Jun 17 1997 12:51)
Buy some Gold:
Its looking more and more like a good bottom is forming in the noble metal.

o Consensus of 32%, coupled with the 32% of several weeks ago puts us about where we were when 340 first stopped the down move. This consensus action is a double bottom over six months. Could we put in a tripple bottom? Of course, so just buy 1/2 of your position now, or 1/3, but this formation alone warrants buying something.

o Gold holding as stock market goes to moon. Gold should be moving the other way at a somewhat commensurate speed. Golds refusing to drop below 340 is telling us something. Maybe like enough is enough!

o Central banks to give away, er sell, all their ( our ) gold. Get real. The only possible reason I can see for a study such as this, is panic. The gold bid world-wide between here and 275 probably exceedes their supply. The next study will be the one that proves gold owners have no sex life. How about this one "Guns grain and gold found to be a deadly brew". Big rich eyes are watching gold, maybe the amount offered here is not deep enough for them.

o This forum has told us gold has bottomed in Australia. Sounds good to me.

o The best is last. Gold adjusted for inflation is now as 106 gold was in 1976. I remember the time, the best four years of my life as a trader. I have dreamed of going back. In retrospect buying gold as it reacted to 100 was the no brainer of all time. I had orders down to 80 and cried when we could not break 100, just like i'll cry this time if we dont break 330.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jun 17 1997 13:15)
Let me play among the stars
ESTE: Well, you've convinced ME. I guess now I'll simply give up astrology now that you've exposed it for what it is. Boy was I fooled.
Seriously, though, I would ask first what knowledge ( besides the nonsense in the daily paper ) you have of astrology. If you have not studied it seriously, then, and please forgive my bluntness, you don't know of whereof you speak. You do not accept astrology as a science, nor do I. It is an art. So is medicine and surgery. Yet you would likely put yourself under the knife or the chemical care of a physician who might very well kill you. Where are the checks and balances of science there? No science or art if you will as ambitious as astrology, which is metaphysics and self knowledge, or healing, are perfect. Astrology has not put men on the Moon, that is true. It is not meant to. It is meant to teach you what the Moon IS. Do you know? Or do you know only the narrow physical descriptions and assertions you have been told since childhood. Then you knoiw only part of what you should know as a citizen of this universe.
Astrology is not meant to put men on the Moon. But, then, neither is accounting, or dentistry, or philosophy, or the culinary arts, music, or journalism. How does that invalidate astrology? YOU didn't get us to the Moon, so does that invalidate YOU? I think not. I hope not. I think the best answer to skepticism about astrology was given by Newton, who was one. He told a scoffer " Sir, you know nothing about it, so are not qualified to speak one way or the other. When you have studied it as long as I have, come back and give me your opinion." See you in 20 years my friend.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 13:18)
Ron, TED -- My double post was due to a veeery slow response from the 'net. I submitted my post, then I saw an error in it, stopped it, corrected it, re-submitted, and then didn't get a response back! All this was from home!

Why home? Internet is too unreliable for trades I sometimes do during the day. Gee, did I say that?

Steve (Perth - Western Australia)
(Tue Jun 17 1997 13:20)
More interesting contrarian views:
It is also nice for a change to be able to get thru to all the sites
super fast. DBC is fine from here. Dow Industrials up, just, but Dow Utilities down a bit.

Steve (Perth - Western Australia)
(Tue Jun 17 1997 13:36)
Why Australian interest rates keep dropping while everyone else's
are moving up
It's so depressing, it's time to hit the sack.
For those forcasting a depression, it may have started here already.
To cap it off, we may just get a national drought to go with it, if
the forecasts are correct ( El Nino effect over Australia ) .

(Tue Jun 17 1997 13:41)
Interesting story on PGMs in Russia;

Intersting quote from a news story ( shhh! Don't tell anyone that I did this! )

Meanwhile, NYMEX July platinum was down a further $6.40 an ounce at $417.50, as liquidation of July contract positions continued by funds.
Open interest in July platinum fell a further 1,247 lots overnight to 10,445 contracts, while open interest in the October and January contracts rose.

July platinum enters its first notice day in two weeks time with open interest equivalent to 522,250 ounces still outstanding against NYMEX platinum stocks of only 54,700 ounces.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 13:44)
@ Valley
Mike Sheller : I totally agree with you!!! It's easy to be jack of all trades and master of none. Everyone uses what they think is the correct formula for predicting the markets, but no one on this forum has it, including myself. If someone did , they wouldn't be posting it here , they would be in the Caymen Islands with John the geologist. I find all theorys have some merit, depending on the individuals who express them.

ted butler
(Tue Jun 17 1997 13:45)
question for bw
bw, how about an inflation adjusted price for silver from 1976 and 86

(Tue Jun 17 1997 13:49)
MIKE SHELLER: Please explain to me, even if only in the briefest most sketchy form, what science astrology is based on.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 13:59)
interesting stuff
U.S. TRADING SUMMARY: Wall Street stocks tumbled in morning trading
on Tuesday, prompting the New York Stock Exchange to set trading curbs at
about 10 a.m. EDT. Analysts said the U.S. May Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) ,
which rose 0.1 percent, compared to the anticipated 0.2 percent rise, would not have a great impact on stocks. Housing starts and industrial production figures also would not affect the market other than to give investors an excuse to sell stocks and take profits after last week's six-day record-setting run, analysts said.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 14:18)

John Disney
(Tue Jun 17 1997 14:49)
Someone asked me a day or so ago about the upcoming dries dividend
which was "final" and would be 75 cents. I said not likely because I
did not see how they could make enough to cover that by end June. Well
they HAVE declared a 75 cent final div end june following the same amount
end december. Their earnings will be out in about a month.
There is a rumour that Buffels shareholders are so upset about the
DD merger that the whole deal may fall through. This is a rumour that I
may have started myself so I would wait for confimation before doing

(Tue Jun 17 1997 14:50)

(Tue Jun 17 1997 15:11)
Interesting story on PGMs in Russia;

Intersting quote from a news story ( shhh! Don't tell anyone that I did this! )

Meanwhile, NYMEX July platinum was down a further $6.40 an ounce at $417.50, as liquidation of July contract positions continued by funds.
Open interest in July platinum fell a further 1,247 lots overnight to 10,445 contracts, while open interest in the October and January contracts rose.

July platinum enters its first notice day in two weeks time with open interest equivalent to 522,250 ounces still outstanding against NYMEX platinum stocks of only 54,700 ounces.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 15:12)
to Mike Sheller
Please don't take my views on Astrology too personally. Yesterday I gave what I hoped was a clear explanation of the faulty premises on which Astrology is based. Obviously I didn't express myself in a clear enough fashion to convince you.
No sound building can be built on defective foundations. The arcane nature of Astrology can appeal to the mystical aspirations of the so inclined, but I would rather live my life according to rules that I understand.
I am aware that much science is not only imperfect but also extremely complicated.
I also agree with you that medicine, as practiced in western society is far from flawless, but this has nothing to do with the Astrological aspiration to provide explanations of any sort.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 15:13)
BOY! Talk about browser problems..... Sorry about the repost.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 15:22)
Things are still soooo sloooow....You are forgiven Panda!..XAU down .98

(Tue Jun 17 1997 15:37)
@onboard hepcats sharkcat
Just took a dive. MFs are now clutching at straws!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 16:09)
@ Hold That Line:
Gosh, all those wonderful stories coming across the newswires about the death of gold. Yet Gold does not break. Holding above $340. Hmmm, I wonder what the boys in New York and London are worried about?? : )

(Tue Jun 17 1997 16:21)
F.T. Gold Conference at Prague

It's understandable that the credit mongrels ( moguls ) can
convince a few budding analyst at the FED to recommend
that all the CB's sell ( all ) their gold; but when they
influence the editor of the Mining Journal to predict
that 18.8 millions annual sources of new gold will be in
pipeline in the next few years -Something stinks.

This assumes that one hundred ( 100 ) new mines will
produce an average of 188,000 new ounces each. No
mention of the present and future closures were made.

Or is the Mining Journal seeing higher gold prices ahead?

Even if this is the case, 100 new mines producing an
average of 188,000 ounces, cost alot and many even have
problems; seems to be tooth fairy stuff. Or as Bernatz
may zay "Zee bullsheet".

(Tue Jun 17 1997 16:37)
ALL! Mike's 'GOLD GLOOM' URL that he gave us at 14:50 is a MUST read for every serious participant at this site. The summary that is given is a masterpiece of negative sentiment that is the PERFECT example to give us a contrarian-type signal that the lows are happening right now. ( In addition to the Captn's signal ) . Therefore I now believe that either: 1 ) the lows are in place or that, 2 ) we will experience a sharp downward spike which will then spike back up. Either way it is soon time to cash in the chips and lay them on the table. Louis, Louis, Louiiiiieeee!!!! ( I know, - calm down, Mooney, calm down ) .

George s. Cole
(Tue Jun 17 1997 16:39)
conservatives and liberals.
XAU and HUI down modestly; August gold off $1.10. Still think we are going lower, but the next MAJOR move will be up and its getting close.

To continue the political discussion, the right just suffered a major defeat in New York City -- a strong Republican effort to end, or at least greatly weaken, New York City's rent control laws was soundly defeated. Despite the orgy of enrich the rich legislation now on the table in Washington, the tide is beginning to turn. So far just a few straws in the wind here in the good old USA, but evidence is mounting that global conservative tide has crested.

Far sighted investors should be giving serious consideration to the changing global political balance of power and its market implications. I've said it before and will say it again -- this is long-run super bullish for gold and potentially very bearish for our hyper-inflated markets.

George S. Cole
(Tue Jun 17 1997 16:42)
MOONEY: We are on the same wavelength!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 16:54)
Mike Sheller, my usually unperturbable kitco friend, @13:15, you mentioned that ( Astrology ) , " meant to teach you what the Moon IS. Do you know?" Well for many years people have been asking me what the moon really is, and since I am the Moon, and since you seem to have that answer, please let me know what I really am, O.K.? ( Trust me, I wouldn't ask this question of anyone else, - I'm afraid the answers might be unpublishable! )

(Tue Jun 17 1997 16:56)
Comment and joke
I find it amazing that when one of the metals decides to take off the other metals like shy maidens demurely step back so as to not chance sharing the limelight with the precocious upstart. Whatever became of the three partner dance? Will we sally forth to that upbeat tempo again? With those poignant thoughts I post a joke which I may or may not have previously posted. I hope that if I did post this before you all have a short memory span and don't remember it. Well off to some more work.

Three men are sentenced to death for various crimes against a
mythical and oppressive state. One is a priest, another is a drunkard,
and the third is an engineer.

The first to face the executioner is the priest. When asked if he
wanted to lie face down or face up on the guillotine, he said,
"I'll lie face up! I have nothing to fear. The Lord is on my side!"
So he lay on his back and faced the razor-sharp blade. When it
was released, the blade fell half way and stopped. The executioner
exclaimed, "This must be divine intervention. You are pardoned,
and you may leave."

The next was the drunkard. When asked the same question, he chose
to lie face up like the priest, saying, "I'm a drunk, not an idiot." So
he lay on his back, too, facing the sharp blade as the sun glinted off its keen edge. Again, the blade fell only half way and stopped. The
executioner exclaimed, "The lord is generous today. You are pardoned,
and you may also leave."

Finally, it was time for the engineer. He also chose to lie on his back.
After all, it seemed that was the lucky thing to do that day. He lay on his back looking up at the heavy blade tensing against the rope. Just before the blade was let loose he shouted, "Wait, I think I see the problem."

(Tue Jun 17 1997 17:03)
Far away and long ago
Mooney: Yes you are the Moon. And your teeth are like the stars***they come out at night. : )

Strad Master
(Tue Jun 17 1997 17:03)
MIKE SHELLER: I truly would like to believe in astrology. If I can claim one Piscean attribute it is that I am strongly attracted to mysticism and the intuitive arts. However, I've had to fight my tendency to be sucked in by such things all my life as I've discovered to my everlasting pain that most of the time such "arts", more often than not, produce incorrect results. Elliot Wave theory is another of the mystical arts that I feel resides with astrology. Had I never heard of Elliot Wave Theory I'd be FAR better off today. That practicioners of such arts are sometimes right does not prove their validity. Witness Robert Prechter who's Elliot Wave work brough him to the height of superstardom but since has relegated him to the backwaters of investment fringedom. My biggest problem with what you wrote most recently to Este is your equating medicine with astrology. It is something of a platitude to lump them together as "arts" when there is nothing comparable about them whatsoever. Perhaps they were equatable in the 1600's when leeching was popular but certainly not today. The science of medicine has, through rigorous testing, produced advances in hygene that have extended man's lifespan by decades. Medicine has through scientific methods wiped smallpox off the face of the planet. Polio is no longer the scourge it once was. One hundred years ago children routinely died of ear infections that are easily treated with simple over-the-counter medicines today. The list goes on and on. Now, I know you'll say that mecical treatments ocassionally fail or produce dangerous consequences. But that is a disingenuous arguement because nothing is 100% effective where the human is concerned. The occasional anomaly doesn't invalidate medicine's effectiveness. It is percentages we deal with in every aspect of life. Can astrology produce anywhere near the percentage effectiveness of medicine? Are there any advances produced through astrology comparable to the eradication of smallpox? Two doctors, trained in medical schools at opposite ends of the country will both diagnose and treat an earache using the same medicine with equally effective result. Would two fine astrologers presented with the exact same chart produce the exact same reading? Of course not. That is where the intuitive "art" part comes in. Understandably, you wish to validate your years of study by trying to elevate astrology to the level of a science but that does more to undermine your credibility than anything else. Rather, I feel you ought to be proud of what you do on its own terms. That astrology, on occaion, produces interesting and even startling results cannot be denied but that is what makes it a true "art" - as opposed to a science. Being a musician I undertand this. It is somewhat akin to the difference between a fine musician and an acoustician. One does not invalidate the other and both can lead to a better understanding of music. In some respects, characterizing mecicine as an "art" elevates it far beyond what it is. Much of medicine is routine and predictable which is as it should be. Otherwise doctors would be totally ineffective, relegated to debating over the size, color, and aroma of bowel movemnts as was common before the advent of scientific thinking. I have no doubt that you are an extremely effective astrologer. But that only proves my earlier point about astrology being an art inextricably tied to your ( perhaps subconscious ) intuitive skills. Could you take a group of 20 interested students and teach them to be as skilkled and effective as you are ( give or take a small amount ) with little or no deviation in the basic readings? I suspect not. Yet, medical schools do that all the time.
Please don't get me wrong. I'm not against astrology at all. It's fun, fascinating, and even tremendoulsy helpful. I'm all for anything that can help others do better in life. Your predictions in the metals markets are just as good as anyone else's - perhaps better because you've trained that intangible, intuitive part of yourself. ( I'm very intuitive too. I consistently buy at the top and sell at the bottom - almost to the day. Perhaps I should send you my birth information and you can tell me what I'm doing wrong!? ) I think, though, that it is a mistake to try to force astrology into the realm of "science". It is also a mistake to try to elevate medicine into more of an "art" than it is. Doing these things does a disservice to both. Thanks.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 17:09)
George, my friend, we are practically ALWAYS on the same wavelength. I don't know why and I don't care why. The only thing that really bothers me is that I can't find our channel ( wavelength ) on the FM dial!

Neffer ( I know who you are and ) - the moon is often out in the day time also, like RIGHT NOW!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 17:11)
Re: ted butler, real silver price
ted: Dont have an official figure but just eyeballing it looks like about 1.60 silver in 1976. Which means we are cheaper now than any other time in history, with the possible sole exception maybe being 1.29 in 1972, and we are very close to that. Is your point that buying silver now is akin to buying gold at 35 in 1967. Good point!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 17:19)
@things not seen
Mike Sheller: discussing the technical aspects of astrology or any metaphysics here is like preaching temperance at a bar. Not likely to be an uplifting experience. I enjoy your posts and consider your comments valuable, astrology based and otherwise. When it comes to the metalsphysical, many things apply.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 17:19)
@...Mooney and GS Cole...Gold gloom article
I disagree. The last sentance of the article is far from contrarian. The analyst stated that there were more reasons why gold should go down than go up. This is lucid plain talk on the subject. Never in the history of the gold market has there been a concerted effort by CB's to sell most of the gold stocks they own. Never. It is extremely optimistic that a sustainable reverse of gold price ( northward ) could be launched given the the current CB mindset. Additionally, a pending downdraft in stocks will not necessarily help gold. Why should it ?

I have most of my marbles in BGO and even with a conservative vested interest of ( 65% of 28 Mozs. au and 7 Bozs. cu ) gold and copper credits that indicate a market value "only on the basis of its Cerro Casale find and excluding existing investments and gold production with Verde/Pancho with Amax" as follows:

( 65% x [28 x.65 ( conservative recovery ) x [$340 - $100 cost ( after copper credits ) ]] ) = U.S. $2.8 Billion x .5 discount = $1.4 B

Since BGO has 108M shares outstanding an estimate of its value based on the Cerro casale find alone would indicate a valuation of U.S. $1.4 B
or U.S. $13 per share versus a close today of about U.S. $6.50 - a price that also discounts the values of Verde/Pancho/other junior plays not included in my calculation.

You hear what I'm saying ?

If the Gold Gloom article is pefect contrarian I hope that optimistism soom strikes and wakes up the market to even fair valued gold miners - like BGO - that are sitting on world class reserves that could be mined for less than $200/oz including capital costs.

Gentlemen, I respect your opinions but I don't see gold turning seriously for a long time yet. The CB's spoiled the party and the recovery will take many years until the CB's have depleted suficient gold reserves
so that their young thinking economic advisers ( however old ) could not cause instability to the gold market in future.

Cheers,... from a ( hopefully ) real contrarian indicator.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 17:25)
Looking Up
Mooney: Could be its out. We are on the opposite sides of the clouds.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 17:31)
to all,
read to very interesting articles abt the precious metal,the market really turn to east...

(Tue Jun 17 1997 17:57)
Re: Earl, total debt
Earl: In the last fourty or so years debt has grown geometrically. The whole bubble would have collapsed long ago except for the main force driving this mania, government. Government in this country has taken over about one half our economy. In the short and intermediate term they can do any insane worthless thing they please. Each wasted trillion does add up but its always on the cuff. People holding the debt live their lives as if they will receive value for the debt. A wealth effect backed by three generations of savings, all at dire risk. Were these people to think this debt worthless the economy would come to a screeching halt as everyone saved perhaps 10% - 20% of their earnings. And they would save it in THINGS. As long as the rules of the game are changed continuously the game goes on. But at some point the game becomes apparent to say 10% of the holders of this worthless paper, they attempt to protect themselves by selling the paper and the game is over. The gov has been very skillful in this game ( of course those trillions of our tax dollars can buy some brilliant minds ) . Perhaps it will not be over for quite awhile. Still, insurance is in order.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 18:08)
Mike Sheller: The work you are doing in astrology is important. It is clear from the comments provided by those who are opposed to it that they don't know enough about it to judge. I am particularly amazed by Este's description of Isaac Newton as an "irrelevant footnote".

(Tue Jun 17 1997 18:25)
PB - B Bbb Be Bee BRAVE! Tell us where somewhere is. Somewhere over the rainbow, somewhere around the corner - lurking as usual - in TIMBUCTUU?

(Tue Jun 17 1997 18:29)

(Tue Jun 17 1997 18:44)
@the scene
I remember back in the late 60's when deficit spending would come into a conversation. The 'scholarly' college crowd would always sagaciously claim that 'we only owe it to ourselves'. Perhaps true then, but now we 'owe' the world. We do not now pay that interest to ourselves as bondholders like we used to. Now a very great percentage of it is paid to those whos major interests are in/about there own country. Whereas in the past, the people here would gladly buy more bonds for 'the cause', they will now tender their dollars to their mutual fund. I'm not saying I blame them for their currently astute observation that the stocks have been going up ( at least in some circles ) . Only that there now exists a lot of paper hanging out there that a lot of foreign purchasers could really give a damn about. Unlike individuals in this country holding it ( at least as they used to be ) , just let a bit of 'problem' develop somewhere and let us then see what 'they' do with their debt holdings.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 18:46)
Cassey Ciphert ( sp? ) of the Nightly Busines Report is wearing a gold necklace with a black top for tonights program. Is there a hidden message here? I shall leave this to those who 'know'... :- ) )

(Tue Jun 17 1997 18:48)
Tort - @ " ..find it amazing that when one of the metals decides to take off the other metals like shy maidens demurely step back so as to not
chance sharing the limelight with the precocious upstart." Silver could be once again taking the leading role. We'll soon see.
Bob - @ Never in the history of the gold market has there been a concerted effort by CB's to sell most of the gold stocks they own."
Wrong Bob! There is a concerted effort, maybe, to Talk the Gold price into staying low at this point in time, but do you Really believe tht their is a concerted effort to Sell? Give me a break. If I want to sell you something for a decent price I don't advertise to the world First, and with all my Co-owners approval, that what I'm about to sell you is certainly not worth very much. I won't say think about it because you don't need to think about that one too much!
bw and ted - THE cheapest point in real terms ( in our lifetimes anyway ) was a few years back when it troughed at about $3.60. Your Welcome!

George S. Cole
(Tue Jun 17 1997 18:49)
gold outlook

Our views remain far apart; we will soon see who is correct. Why should gold go up if stocks tank? Because the end of the stock market boom combined with cresting of the global conservative tide will shatter extant investment, financial, and economic paradigms. Capital will start to run scared as the masses search for scapegoats. And when capital runs scared, gold surges.

You obviously feel that the impending stock market drop will be merely another brief interruption in an unending bull. I see it as something much more significant.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 18:50)
@the scene
RJ -- per your 'posting' to me earlier: Your attempt to belittle a crash scenario and my thoughts on the subject only belittles yourself as one who cannot see the forest for the trees. Perhaps if you would post your reasons why the scenario can't/won't happen, some good discussion might ensue. I have plainly stated in the past that I would more than welcome someone putting forth good arguments against a crash type scenario. So far, only met by silence and with a piss-poor attempt at belittling posting by you. Surely, you can do better than that!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 18:55)
PB - Your bravery is astounding! Reminds me of what the Scots felt about the English bravery just before the big battle in the movie Braveheart. You know, when the thousands of Scots, as a man, turned and wiggled their butts at the English soldiers while at the same time lifting their kilts.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 18:57)
"There is much ruin in a nation." Translation, it takes a long time to spend down those assets built up over the generations, once done, the game is over.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 18:59)
@the scene
Panda -- Oil and gold! Don't forget those golden grains soon too!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:01)
George S. Cole: what makes you think the coming stock decline is the end of the bull rather than just an overdue healthy correction?

(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:06)
@the market
Panda -- Most of that 'spending' has already occurred. A crash in the stocks should about finish it. When that happens, it'll also be found that foreigners will see little reason to be sending money here or into our paper. Eyes will begin to open! It behooves the Fed to keep it going at all costs, and just as long as they can do it. The end game was written when it was born!!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:13)
BW: Of course if that 10% happens to include some foreign govts who decide it's time to .. Ah, "diversify" their holdings, the midcourse correction could be ... Ah, dramatic?

As for the present and future effect of politics on the economy, I don't think there is even a slim chance that the US govt will, in anyway, ease its stranglehold on the economy. The will to power is too great.

As George has said, on more than one occasion, "The Will of Heaven" is on the side of greater govt expansion. With all that implies. Though one has to wonder where and how the additional taxes will be derived. .....Perhaps, as in the past, say the right words, make the right appeal, and the herd will crowd into the pen and demand to be sheared.

With fully 50% of gross income taken by govts, at all levels, it doesn't leave much room for additional theft. ... Without some backlash, that is. Additionally, since the system is presently configured and managed for the benefit of the moneyed classes, any major 'revenue enhancement' will have to be at the expense of the middle class.

Given the stretched and indebted position of the middle class today, some thought must be given to maintaining social stability. ......... Me and Bernatz gonna be lookin' forward to puttin' a turbo on the company guillotine; by damn! 'N it won't make no difference nohow if their name is "Louis" or not. ... ( :- ) )

(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:14)
After reading about that GOLD conferance we are lucky the Gold stuff is not trading at $1.00. Where do these guys get off and face reality


(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:20)
The keep the faith anti-gold conference

geoffs: That was the conference designed to keep the
faith in the present monetary madness.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:23)
Too Little time, too much to say
Good people of Kitco, Good Friends...I am overwhelmed. Such an interest in astrology! MIKE: Astrology is based on the SCIENCE of astronomy. But ASTROLOGY is an ART in and of itself. ESTE: I do not take your views on astrology personally. Before I got into it, I would have sounded like you. You say that you "would rather live my life according to the rules I understand." Please do. I did not mean to disturb your perception of reality. Please forgive me if I did.
STRAD MASTER: My musical friend ( how I wish I had musical piano is now rusting in the garage - forgive me for that ) I am not, as you say "forcing astrology into the realm of science." I said, over and over, it is an ART. An art BASED on science. Just like music. I have no interest, as you contend, in defending or elevating astrology, or to "validate" my years of study. Do YOU need to "validate" your years of study of music? And by WHOSE perceptions? Certainly not. If you were the worst musician in the world, and I were the worst astrologer, what difference would that make if we each found results, edification, and inspiration from our crafts? I am not, as you kindly inferred, necessarily an EFFECTIVE astrologer. However, you could ask several publicly known people who have been named often and in reverential awe at this site about some of my "predictions" and analyses concerning markets and nations. Professional and moral ethics keep me from mentioning most, but ask Alan Abelson , when he was editor of Barron's, since this is a public matter, about my prediction Six months in advance of the Fujimori Coup in Peru. Sometimes, dear Strad, I amaze myself...but that is the ART of astrology which is what is amazing. Someday perhaps I will be a GOOD astrologer. Are you a good enuf musician? Having grown up with many musicians and artists myself, I think your answer might be NO. Then you are blessed, and you will progress as a musician. If you also acknowledge that there are other things you are not good at, or know little about, you will also progress if you keep an open mind and don't judge in the manner that your conditioning has limited you.
MOONEY: Give me some time, Man. But I'll get back to you.

Steve Puetz
(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:24)
@ Eldorado
Eldorado: Glad to see you back at Kitco. I missed your absence over the past few days.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:25)
Stop it Mooney, you're turning me on.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:26)
...and furthermore!
PB: Este describes Isaac Newton as an " irrelevant footnote."????!!!! You and I should only be so irrelevant. ROEBEAR: You are a wise soul.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:26)
@ SPX Sept 825 put
Panda: Did you see my posting around midnight last night -- regarding you question on the 825 put?

(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:28)
Every gold fund lost value today ( all but two yesterday ) and that should give an indication that gold stocks are not in demand. In the past, gold stocks falling with a rising gold price usually results in a soon declining gold price unless there is a major news item spurring gold to new heights, which there is not. The recent relationship between gold and gold funds is very negative for both unless something happens soon.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:30)
@the scene
Geoffs -- Their 'reality' is to make paper their paper the king, not just for them, but for everyone! They can't get off 'it'. Their rational also means driving gold down just as far as they can and not letting it back up. ALL doomed to failure! They might have had a chance if they hadn't burdened us all with a 'debt-based' monetary system. That not being the case, there is no way I have ever heard of, or read of, or can yet imagine that can lead their system to any kind of salvation. Yes, they CAN sell all the rest of the gold that is in their vaults. It would be the best thing that could possibly happen, them putting ALL that back into the peoples hands. Very unlikely for that very reason IMHO since it would put all the REAL money where it belongs. Scare tactics are the order of the day since they now have very few teeth left in their old 'wizened' heads to bite with.

Pepino di Cortino
(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:32)
Bella Italia

Mondo Cane, now you guyz, you know why; ina the "Bella
Italia" we no paya the tax and buya the gold. They
printa the substituta money becausa they no hava the taxa
and we happy. Mama Mia ama lova my Italia.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:37)
to PB
I can only assume that you have never read Newton's biography. The second part of his life was very sad and close to irrelevant in more than one way. What happend to his superior scientific mind? To this day nobody has been able to produce a valid explanation.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:41)
@the scene
Steve Puetz -- Been away and busy. Always glad to get back! Noticed a few days back in the IBD that bancruptcies are very much still on the rise. That's the crack in the dam! This, in 'good' times! Wonder what'll happen when 'things' come apart a bit? It takes people earning money and with 'credit' to borrow. Without borrowing, the money for others to pay their loans doesn't come into circulation. The government will have to make up the shortfall of currency which means more spending on their part, and with less incoming revenues. Balanced budget? HAR!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:42)
@ Ted's 12:29
Ted: No offense taken by your question. I have been wrong for the past 15 years on the stock market. But more important than that, I have been wrong for the right reasons, and the bulls have been right for the wrong reasons. Let me explain.

I recognized 15 years ago that our country and our government were in deep trouble. Some of the excesses at that time were just as extreme as 1929 -- especially the amount of deposits banks had loaned out.

My mistake at that time was not realized how far the US government would go to keep our credit system from collapsing. I was influenced by an argument by Tom Holt that the government would not risk its own credit to save the banks. That, however, was wrong.

The government has risked its credit. And now, like the banks a decade ago, the government stands in an insolvent state. The important question now: Who will bail the US government out of its financial mess during the next economic down-turn? Foreign central banks already have to a limited extent. But they are going to have to pony up bigger bucks than they have been willing so far when things really get bad.

I say I was wrong for the right reasons because I recognized the impossibility of rescuing our financial system a long time ago. The bulls, however, still don't recognize that there is any problem with our system.

Additionally, I mistakenly assumed the the extremes of 1929 and 1987 were extremes that were next to impossible to exceed. In 1997, we have far surpassed the prior manic-extremes used to measure excessive valuations. Nonetheless, absurd extremes do exist, and the increasing rate of credit difficulties seem certain to stop the bull market if the Fed does not -- and I doubt that the Fed will stop it. The bulls -- who have been right for 15 years in a row -- will never have a chance to get out. They will lose all they have made in the past 15 years rather quicly -- maybe in just a few weeks time. If this answer is insufficient, I am willing to answer anything I have left out here.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:44)
@ Hi-yo silver
Eldorado: You must be all smiles. Silver shone brightly today.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:45)
Drugs, probably.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:46)
@ shone
How about, silver was shining brightly today?

(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:52)
@the scene
Steve puetz -- Gold may not want to get off its dead ass but that should be no 'reflection' on how silver will move. Silver is/will be the best purchase in the metals that anyone can make! It'll be the biggest percentage gainer of them all, bar none!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 19:53)
@New England
Conventional wisdom is gold stks precede gold. Well may be this time conventional wisdom is wrong and the lack of buying of gold stocks is really an indication of the overwhelming bearishness on gold to the point that investors ignore even rallies in gold. This unusual bearishness is actually a contrary indicator/ ie the public has completely bought the anti gold propaganda. Almost daily negative reports about a commodity nobody wants may mean Wall St may need help in keeping it down so the spin is intense. They Protesteth too much!!This whole thing is about confidence. In the last few days there has been expression of concern about consumer debt. What comes out today miraculously "consumer debt delinquincies declined in first quarter". If its a problem fix it with a news item. The spin has to be perfect or confidence could be lost and the whole thing unravels. "this is the best economy in 50 years and no end in sight" so say some ( disinterested HaHa ) Wall St economists. Yeah personal bankruptcies always soar when the economy is so good. HaHa! Remember what country in the 1980s had full employment/low inflation and excellent economic growth ( at least according to official statistics ) Ans: the USSR!!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:00)

WW: With just ten words, you said it all. "If its a
problem fix it with a news item". Congrats.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:01)
@the scene
WW -- Most excellent! Thanks!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:01)
@New england
Did y'all hear today that Rubin may become Clinton's Chief of Staff and step down as Treasury Secretary. Or does it really matter or does Bob know something. We can speculate if he takes the new position as he is "competing" with others.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:08)
Venerable veteran analyst sees bullish signals on Gold Indicators. Also, his charts paint positive platinum picture. He likes Stillwater, N.A. Palladium & Franco-Nevada. RELOAD at Editorials page:

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:15)
The stock market made an important high top today. I'm not sure yet if this is the exact top of this move. I am sure that we will have a sell off from here. Tomorrow will be a down day for the DOW. I was so close to selling the NYFE at 471.00 but decided to yet this market go down and then we will have a advance. This advance should NOT make a new high and on this failure I will go short.
I wish I had something to say about Gold. Watching Gold in the middle of the day today was like watching paint dry.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:15)
Good friends at Kitco: This is for MOONEY. Tho it is a public exposition on SOME few facets of the Moon's relationship to astrology, it is a personal offering to an inquisitive soul. It is not meant for debate or ridicule. Save that for me. Not for Mooney and his desire for knowledge. MOONEY: The MOON in astrology is related to the 'personality.' In other words, there is the TRUE self, the SPIRIT, or whatever one wishes to call it, and the'personality' The personality is the identification with the physical body and the circumstances of birth: ie - sex, race, religion, culture, etc. These are transient and transitory details of life relative to the essential realities of existence, intelligence, sentience and will. The immaterial, immortal SELF in the body is YOU. The REAL you. The particulars of the 'personality' are subject to many causes and effects, but are transitory. They last only for this life, and often change WITHIN a single life. Astrology is predicated on reincarnation. That is why a human horoscope brings clues as to the destiny in the current life. Destiny has been accumulated and earned by actions and thoughts in previous lives. Getting back to the Moon, however, this celestial light gets its brilliance from the Sun. Just as the personality is really reflecting the SPIRIT, and often weakly, so the Moon can only reflect the light of the Sun. The danger of living in the personality, rather than the spirit, is that one may be easily distracted by the transitory and valueless nonsense of life, and other people1s delusions, rather than exploring the depth of conviction and illumination available to the highest inner faculties of one1s own true and permanent self.

The Moon is symbolic of The Mother, of the Culture one is born into, and the attachments and prejudices these breed. The Mother is one of the most impressive factors in a human life. Few escape the tangled impressions that must be worked out as a result of parental influences and aberrations.The Moon is also symbolic of the autonomic habit energy that prods us into repetitive and puppet-like activities and thoughts. We must break the spell of this waste of energy and will. We must control and eliminate influences that engender stimulus response actions in our thoughts and lives. When we do so, we take back the energy , will, and intelligence we have allowed to be manipulated by other people, institutions, illusions, nature itself, and erroneous thoughts and controlling habits. Then we retain that power for our own spiritual selves, and can function more efficiently, and with greater integrity, as the light within each of us dictates.

Mooney...are you overly sentimental? Do you put too much stock in what others claim to be true? Is you family very important to you. More so than most people? Is there much to work out vis a vis Mother and Parents issues?
Do you prefer Silver over Gold? Are you a steady, tenacious worker? If so, you may very well be responding to the Moon symbolically, in some way. Names and nicknames, to a metaphysician, are not accidental. ( Look at 'Greenspan' ) Otherwise, I am only being symbolic in my description of some of the psychological influences of the Moon as an astrological reference point. I have only exposed the tip of the iceberg. My intent is only to give a 'taste' of only ONE facet of the astrological art. I hope I have been of some intellectual, or perhaps even spiritual service. PS to the gang - for those who would say 'Sure Sheller, you could say that about anyone' - YES - We all have a MOON in our horoscope. WHERE it is located, and WHAT RELATIONSHIPS it has to other zodiacal points and planets, etc, supplies the individual details. But the Human Condition is essentially the same for us all.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:19)
Steve Puetz ( 19:42 ) As I sit in my lonely outpost on the chilly waters of a foreign country in the North Atlantic, I can't but think how strange life really is...All my life I have been an anti-establishment radical and now I find myself in the position of defending the ultimate SYMBOL of that very establishment, the stock market...No, I don't think everything is OK with the system...never have....never will...and I too have spent much of my life thinking a crash of Western civilization let alone the stock market was right around the corner and maybe it's old age or something but my thinking has evolved into the concept that the world always seems to find a way to muddle through its problems...This is NOT to say there won't be major recessions or stock market declines but I just don't see a collapse of the proportions some here ( you, obviously included ) are predicting...I am sitting here now because 15 years ago I decided to take the RISK and invest in the stock market and those gains are now OUT of the market and what I have here is real and tangible...
I don't put all my eggs in one basket and hope my scenario plays itself out...In any event if your scenario should happen to take place I feel I am more suited than most to weather "the storm" as I have lived OUTSIDE the system most of my life and try to be as independant of "the system" as possible...I still can't believe that me a 60's radical who watched the goverment murder students May 4th 1970 at Kent State University is now in a way, defending "that system"...Ain't life WEIRD! and thank you for responding to me!!!!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:19)
@New England
"The fix it with a news item factor" is why gold must stay down and stks cant fall as news follows price. We must be getting close to something as even a 50 pt fall seems unacceptable or any little recovery in gold. Remember about 5 weeks ago when we had the 140 pt decline and Rubin charged back from Mexico. How have we done since then boys and girls!! Things must be getting fragile for the spin to be this intense.
Re credit card delinquincy decrease timing/remember the banks want their stk prices and stk options to keep rising too. The only thing they cant fudge is bankruptcy filings which are with the courts and are part of the public record. Their actions are creating a bubble which could only be created with the modern advancements in communication technology which allow the mania to reach an extent they ( Wall St. ) could only dream of in 1929. If they had only had electrinic media advancements like cable/satellites and the internet back ( not to mention derivitives and program trading ) then What the house of Morgan could have done. The foregoing advancements to improve mankinds situation is why Steve P. was 15 years early. It is also why this debacle will be unimagineable and why Wall St and the CBs are very nervous as indicated by the spin intensityt. Remember last Fall when the G-7 wanted to coordinate for a financial accident. If there are no imbalances as the govt says and everything is so great why do they need to consider such action..Hmm No irratinal exuberance from Greenspan/He doesnt want to be blamed for lighting the tinder box. Cant blame him can we. Reading between the lines there are big problems under the surface. The intense spin may be a sign that "they" are having trouble defending the fort.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:21)
They're all around me
WW: I was not much of a "conspiracy" theorist before getting into the internet, but I must say I've had that potential opened wide for me. Especially here among the paranoids at Kitco ( just kidding gang ) . Your take on the job being "done" on gold does not seem in any way far-fetched. Well summarized!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:24)
WW : Can you please post the url for that news.

All : a useful site for news

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:28)
@New England
I just caught it as a newsclip on cable where they were discussing the tug o war between the centrists and the leftists in the Clinton Admin. Apparently Erskine Bowles, the Investment Banker, is going back to NC. The story indicated Rubin was ONE of the possible replacements.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:31)
Note @ Security Analysis
Mike June 17 @ 14:50 GOLD GLOOM
Said an analyst at a major London Bullion House
" * with all that going on * I can think of many reasons why the
price ( Gold ) * should * go down " A quote of an unnamed source,
suggests poor journalism, unless of course, a bridge is being sold !

Economic Background of Security Values :
The soundness of a security purchase is determined by future develope-
ments and not by past history or statistics. But the future cannot
be analyzed; we can seek only to anticipate it intelligently and
to prepare for it prudently. Here the past comes in - through the
back door, as it were - because long experience tells us that
investment anticipations, like other business anticipations, cannot
be sound or dependable unless they are closely related to past performance. It is our own underlying thesis that the principles of
sound investment have not changed materially over the past half century, in spite of the tremendous and tragic events of the period and in spite of the major transformations in the economic, social, and political scene.

Historical Evidence as a Base :
Thus we propose to the reader that he ground his investment principles
solidly upon the record and the lessons of the last fifty years. This
may seem an unrealistic doctrine in a world that appears to have broken away from its moorings to the past. The United States has, it is true,
maintained its political stability; but our economic structure has been shifted far from its apparently firm laissez-faire and gold-standard
foundation of 1900.

Will the past behavior of American capitalism supply any clue to its future behavior - or even its future existence ? We do not feel called upon to make predictions on the latter score. Logic suggests that this seemingly basic question may be irrelevant to the work of the analyst.
He deals with corporate and governmental securities.

Their continued existence is the postulate from which he starts. If the postulate is wrong, there is nothing he can do about it - no significant alternatives he can offer the investor. To be sure, an understanding of
factors of change within the framework of capitalism may appropriately
influence investment decisions. But such evolutionary changes have been actively at work for at least a generation.
( Security Analysis - Graham and Dodd 1934, 1940, 1951 )

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:37)
EBN Gold up .20 and Dollar modestly lower...

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:38)
TED: You're unusually philosophic tonite. Are you smoking the vegetables instead of currying them this eve? Only kidding, my cyberfriend. It strikes me keenly how so many of us have indelible memories of State imposed trauma...You Kent State, RJ and Lebanon, my tour in 'Nam. And many others, I'm sure, quiet in their wonder and long buffered pain. It is one thing to intellectualize, but to see it erupt all around you is to shake the foundations of a narrow illusion of "reality." Yes, IT can happen here. The view from the DOW: Dont look down! Little wonder those who have seen first hand the nightmare of an authoritarian power so acceptably imposed look for alternative routes by which to exit the madness that engulfs us all. But, now, I'm starting to sound like Cherokee. And he's far more poetic than I about these things.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:39)
Puetz -- Name change, eh! :- ) ) Yes, I saw your post regarding the SPX puts. I've been doing some changes to the old portfolio mix. Boy, I can't wait to change brokers! I got a new one yesterday from Schwabee regarding settlements and margin accounts. Funny, I learned how to count to three like this; One, two, three. They count like this; One, one, one, two, is it three days yet? ( We're on day six and counting for settlement! ) It's long story, but I have been running in to the oddest problems with these folks in the last six months! Everything from bad quotes, to bad fills, to no fills after 24 minutes on an open market order in a stock that traded a little under a million shares on the day in question. Do I think there's a problem here? YUP!

Eldorado -- I watched as the XOI ( AMEX gas + oil index ) or, XVI if you prefer, went up, up, and away, to paraphrase a commercial. Now the question is, short or long? I becoming more and more convinced of one thing, daytrading is looking safer everyday! One day 'bets' are looking a whole lot safer than one WEEK 'bets'. In addition, physical ownership of the 'stuff' is starting to look like a better deal with each passing day. They may screw with the markets, but in the end, it's whats in your hand that counts.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:45)
Well, here we are, precious metals in recession if not depression while the rest of the world is torn over which brand of caviar to wash down with their Dom Perignon. Here I am, drinking my coffee, sitting indoors, basically - really - enjoying myself, watching several percent or so of my net worth go up in smoke while the guy next door is making 32% a year. Is this a great country, or what? Isn't it nice to have the luxurious option of throwing away thousands of clamshells on an expensive investing habit? Sure beats the breadline, doesn't it? And here's the kicker - there's still a possibility that I might end up making money off this little hobby. So at worst ( so far, anyway ) it's less expensive than sailing, and possibly even profitable. And furthermore, if I had bought a nice boat with what I'm down so far, I'd have to pay to maintain it and dock it, etc. Plus get sunburn, maybe skin cancer. Hey, let's face it - gold saved my life here. I can't wait til the market opens tomorrow.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:48)
2weeks -- LOL, I know the feeling!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:50)
Mike Sheller ( 20:38 ) No smokin tonight Mike....must be the weather er somethin...or maybe that I'm heading back to the states this weekend for the first time in a while....of that I'll be seein me mother for the first time in over five years....Who knows what IT is....Pretty cozy here now with a fire goin in the fireplace and the rain whippin off the ocean!
Thanks for responding to me, especially since I gave you a hard time when you joined the forum....Was just testin ya!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:50)
Mike Sheller ( 20:38 ) No smokin tonight Mike....must be the weather er somethin...or maybe that I'm heading back to the states this weekend for the first time in a while....of that I'll be seein me mother for the first time in over five years....Who knows what IT is....Pretty cozy here now with a fire goin in the fireplace and the rain whippin off the ocean!
Thanks fo

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:52)
AUGUST GOLD chart tells the tale. Day before yesterday Very Very short term price emerged from the downtrend of the May 20th and June 6th mini peaks. Yesterday was the mini RETURN MOVE to that resistance line which is now new support. Price Cannot go lower than yesterday's low for now. This sets up a thrust in the next few days toward the 346.50 mark. Get thru that and we RALLY.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:54)
Sniff Sniff
TED: YOU never gave me a hard time. Anyhow, what's burning in the fireplace?? ( ???!!! )

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:54)
Bart: Stop double posting me! Once is bad enough....

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:55)

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:56)
Well-reputed Seer asserts gold stocks are as cheap TODAY relative to the market as they were in the early 1970s. See Coles Market Insights - Click RELOAD:

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:57)
And yes I did!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:57)
bw -- Was it you who brought up the Treasurys sale of Morgan silver Dollars back in the sixties? If so, what do you think the Treasury will do with all those gold bars? Do you think that they will sell them in the same fashion? If so, I will gladly be there to purchase as many ingots as I can, for the 'right' price of course! With such massive dumping, I should think $42/oz about right. :- ) ) :- ) ) :- ) )

Anyone else care to join in the bargain basement fire sale? :- ) ) :- ) )

(Tue Jun 17 1997 20:57)
STEVE PUETZ: I love to read your predictions but I do not believe in an impending collapse of the financial system. Such a collapse would sweep away all existing power structures and lead to totalitarian governments and war.

Why can the debt bubble not be liquidated in a slow and orderly manner, that is, the losses distributed throughout the numerous industrious taxpayers: Disinformation about the true state of inflation, downsizing of expectations, write down of assets,...

The issue here is mostly the willingness of the population to endure hardships without successful organized resistance to the existing power structure. Such resistance is now unthinkable however: the incredible advance in the technology of surveillance, conditioning of the population to desirable beliefs and enforcement of commendable behaviour rules it out.

People have gone through worse before: the losers of major wars have lost EVERYTHING and had to acquiesce to a new start from a clean slate for lack of alternatives. The slow deterioration enforced by a deflation of the credit bubble will also be accepted docilely.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:00)
Mike: I know about you Nam brother was there for a year and a half....

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:01)
@the scene
Panda -- Anymore, very rarely do I have trades that last more than a couple days at a time. Even not being a 'day trader' per say, quite a number of them I'll decently exit when I don't like what I'm seeing on the intra-day charts. I do like the 'gold on black' you mentioned. Check out CLN7! Tell me what you see. I see good support at 19.10-19.20! Right up until it be taken out. In other words, it currently looks like a good buy unless/until proven otherwise, and should that be the case, one shouldn't have to put much at risk at this point. The other side of the coin it that it is banging on resistance at these levels. Well, how low can it go? Perhaps just a bit more time wil be required. Can it also be that they'll let us see 17 on it? Somebody find another barrel of it somewhere?

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:05)
That didn't last long! Gold down a nickle and Silver down a cent...

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:09)
Mike: I agree with you......

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:10)
@New england
I read that article from Mike @ 14:50 re gold conference. If that level of sentiment is not a poster child for what sentiment is like at a low I have never seen it. This article should be saved by anyone who anticipates writing an article on market sentiment. In a way it is comical/ everyone hates gold just before the greatest debt avalanche and potential for default. I get a kick out of how the CBs lose a WHOLE 15 billion a year by holding gold. Even better is the WHOLE 370 billion US share 95 billion if they sold all their gold ie that which hasnt already been lent out but not as yet returned. These numbers are so tiny in comparison to what is going on it is incredible that the analysis is undertaken as it is so ludicrous it could blow their cover and credibility. Try and think about the significance of those numbers in comparison to the Debt and Derivitives etcet and try not to laugh. If there were a Mkt version of Saturday Night Live The CBs and Wall St ( Ted Arnold as Connie Conehead ) would have to be depicted as the Cone heads. "We will sell MASS QUANTITIES OF GOLD" and consume MASS QUANTITIES of FINANCIAL ASSETS as the former are plentiful and the latter are scarce.!! Beam me up!!!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:11)
Eldorado - Again you see malice where there is none. I can only assume that there is a vast gulf of difference between your humor and mine. You have obviously been honing your arguments to a keen edge and are anxious to use them before they dull. I recall a time, when you called as vehemently for my conclusions regarding the value of gold as a buy and hold investment, protector of wealth, or store of value. I seem to remember an similar eagerness to hear these arguments. I recall apologizing for not adhering to your timetable.

I have written several thousand words in the last two weeks to this group. I have taken positions that differ greatly from many in this group, supported them well, and defended them from all but the weakest assaults. When some did not like the generous numbers I used, I responded with facts and figure to prove that the picture is actually much worse than I previously describe. Some, who I respect, conceded my reasoning, others offered the same with the caveat thatblah, blah.. followed by an argument whose self contradiction was so evident, I did not bother to respond, preferring to let ones words stand on their own. From others, who originally challenged my contentions, the silence was deafening.

You are obviously relishing the opportunity to prove me wrong with your continued calls for my next essay, this I assume, being preferable to answering my last. I remember, when I was young, I could not beat my older ( by ten years ) brother in wrestling, basketball, or horseshoes. I kept searching and finally found I could beat him in chess, for there, size and speed did not matter, the playing field was level. I sense some of the same in your continued prodding of me.

I have enjoyed my time as a guest here. I have respected the give and take, and I have learned. I have seen those who, faced with a better argument, concede that these are good points, some of which, they may not have considered. I have tried to answer all challenges and questions put to me, finding it sometimes easier to answer several in one post.

Most importantly, as many here will agree, I have not lost my sense of the fun of it all. To this conceit; I may have enjoyed some of my own posts more that any other, but such is the nature of fun. All in all, I have not forgotten how to play, and I do think there are many who take me more seriously than I take myself. To those, I respond, lig

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:17)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Whew! Finally able to use the web again. It seems my provider had a router fail during what was a busy day for the net, anyway.

Earl: Glad you liked 'em.

Vronsky: Thanks for the url. Your site and Bart's are by far the very best on the web for those interested in precious metals. Much, much food for thought on both. Thanks!!!

Panda: I called Signal Data. I've heard they are pretty good. Do you prefer a cable or satellite feed?

Re the astrology debate: I believe that if anyone in this world is interested in finding and explaining new or poorly understood forces in the universe, it is the physicist. Now, of course, we can always go back to the end of the Dark Ages and drag out the odd pathological counterexample. But what do *modern* scientists say about astrology? Modern physicists, thoroughly schooled in the scientific method as no person born in 1642 could possibly have been, universally reject the claims of astrology for the same reason: Astrologers have simply failed to provide any evidence that such forces are at work. It's a dead issue, scientifically.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:18)
Eldorado - More spin control here too;


Selling strategic oil reserves again. Not that the stuff was quality oil mind you, just selling more assets again. That is, assuming it hasn't already been sold! BTW, wasn't this the oil that was supposed to be used for the military in time of national emergency???

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:28)
@the scene
RJ -- I wasn't the one to post the 'humor' as you call it. If you feel so inclined to post crap, who am I to say you can't. If you have something to say about the scenarios, then say it! And don't to be so 'taken aback' when a small bit of re-proof' comes your way when you do post 'crap'! I do not recall even one instance when I got on you 'case' since my posting after YOU said you didn't know what gold was good for. Get off your high and mighty and post some of that 'substance' you say you have coming! I do know that you have made some damn good postings here, and I would only recommend more of the same! Bring 'em on!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:29)
panda: The govt. selling off govt. assets to avoid cutting or slowing the growth of government. What do you expect from a bunch of gutless empty suits!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:30)
Ron -- I've been told cable is the preferred method of reception. I use the FM version and I live in a good signal area coupled with an outdoor antenna. It's rare to drop ticks for me. I've seen postings at other sites from those who've had less than 'stellar' results with the FM box/card. Those who have cable tend to opt for the cable version. Those who live in nice places, that are far away, with lots of land, nice mountains,and lots of land, have the satellite version. :- ) )

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:31)
The govt. doesn't have enough assets to cover the debt and unfunded liabilities. I guess when the sell off most assets to feed the beaucratic monster .... we will be dealing in purely worthless paper.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:34)
@ The Public Library
Nasdaq 100 Sept Futures having a hard time on the overnight Globex. Had gained 1000 today and is alread down 800. Things don't look good for the techs tomorrow morning. Understand there were several negative reports after the bell.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:36)
EWP -- Did you ever see a sign posted on property that read like this,


It is has always led me to ask these three questions;

1] What is money?
2] Where does mony come from?
3] Who is the government?

BTW, don't I own a piece of that state property?

:- ) ) :- ) )
If it weren't so sad, it would be funny.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:38)
Byron -- It's because you're not buying Seagates hard drives. :- ) )

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:39)
@New England
Mike: You have made an apt statement of what they are trying to do "slow deflation of the credit bubble" Ques is will it work or are things becoming so stretched that something will break. The point of my earlier post was that technology has allowed this situation to continue beyond what was possible in the past. Manipulation of opinion and therefore perception /confidence and money is prevalent. Ques. can it be done indefinitely or will the break be bigger than 1929. Or will there be a break greater than 1929 which will allow us to start over and in fact since there are many more people at the lower end of the ladder/ a collapse wont set them off. In fact this collapse will be a rich man's depression with little effect on the little guy who will gain political clout when the upper 20% sees it clout diminished. Conclusion" Collapse yes for those who have accumulated financials. Subsequent political chaos and low prices and shift in political power will give many in the bottom 80% the chance of a lifetime and they will love whats happening. IE Financial Collapse will not mean armageddon for most in fact b/c of power shift it will give most people a chance. Wall ST and the upper 20% will go down drastically in comparison to those they had outstripped for two decades. This will be healthy and welcomed by most and will help stabalize society. When the collapse occurs I can just see the riots and store burnings breaking out all over Scarborough, Grosse Pointe, McLean, Va. and Beverly Hills.
HaHa. So Mike I agree with you that the world will not come to an end and in fact may improve for most if there is a financial debacle. I disagree that a financial debacle will hold dire societal consequences except for those whose fortunes are tied to this realm. A NEW AND PROBABLY BETTER REALM WILL EMERGE FROM THE ASHES OF WALL ST. And in 20 or 30 years after the debacle Wall St itself will regain its credibility. HOPE LLIVES!!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:39)

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:42)
@ 1960's hippie
Ted: I too was an anti-government hippie sympathizer in the 1960s. However, Purdue was a ultra-conservative college. Nothing exciting ever happened there. I think we all protested the government sending us to Vietnam without any intention of seriously trying to win that war.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:44)
on the day of the infamous crime
today marks the 25th anniversary of the watergate saga...

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:44)
@ Ted got out
Ted: At least you were smart enough to get out of the stock market. Most people will have no idea what's happening when the collapse finally starts.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:47)
@ increase taxes !!!!
Mike Sheller: Trying to tax the productive even more to keep the government from going broke will certainly intensifying a powerful trend already started -- capital fleeing the country. The next step may be for Uncle Sam to impose capital and emmigration controls. Biginning to sound more like the Soviet Union before its collapse????

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:48)

Strad Master:

Nicely put ... well spoken ... wish you had an opinion though !

Say a sign in a restaurant window this evening....

" We have menus in brail " .. Logical who'll be able to read it eh!


(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:48)
panda: in agreement. Feel sorry for the generations that come after me ( my children and future grandchildren ) .

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:51)
I see the tip of the iceberg ( every day ) and it bothers me.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:52)
@ NASDAQ down 800 in overnight trading
Panda: Regarding Byron's post that the OTC index is collapsing tonight, move my sell signal up one day. The 10-day Arms Index gave its sell today. I was anticipating a sell signal tomorrow.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:53)
@the scene
RJ -- Actually, I'm not here to prove anything right or wrong. I like learning too. But if I can poke a 'hole' in it, I'll give it a shot. I will not take anybodys 'word' on it. I'll make my own decisions. I've never been anybodys' 'yes' man without a damn fine rational behind it! So don't be so paranoid that I'm 'after' you or something. As for what a scenario might be in a crash of 'that' magnitude, I wouldn't even want to hazard a guess except to first, watch out for the stampede to the exits!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:55)
Ted: You've exited the market?

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:56)
Kitco contributor, RJ, discovered an uncanny correlation between the Yen and the Yen value of Platinum. It appears to demonstrate predictive qualities. See new SILVER charts:

(Tue Jun 17 1997 21:57)
For all you hosers ( just funnin' you ) up north, what Canadian Band sang the phrase: "I see the tip of the iceberg ... and I worry about you"

(Tue Jun 17 1997 22:01)
@ delinquencies
Eldorado: A report came out today showing delinquencies continued to increase during the 1st quarter of 1997. Actually, credit-card delinquincies fell. However, that decline was more than offset by large jump in car-loan defaults. The credit-dike sprung another leak!!!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 22:07)
@the scene
Steve Puetz -- Re delinquencies: Why am I not even a bit surprised! That dam is springing more leaks all the time and there isn't a thing they can do about it!

Mike M.
(Tue Jun 17 1997 22:27)
STEVE PUETZ: Our benevolent government has a stake in underreporting GDP growth ( inflation fears ) . This is a recurring theme in articles in Barrons. Evidence that GDP growth is in fact underreported: Unexpectedly high tax receipts by the states and federal government, the income and production side of the GDP do not balance. Higher GDP growth could aid in coping with the debt.

Recently I read "Pop Internationalism" by Paul Krugman, where he debunks the widely held popular belief that competitiveness in international markets is crucial for the welfare of national economies. He claims that in fact it is domestic technological progress and productivity which are important. In this area we have seen spectacular advances ( computer technology especially in the service sector, manufacturing process automation ) . The economy may in fact be stronger than expected to cope with adversities in the financial system.

Lastly: the financial authorities are aware of systemic danger. The possibility of systemic failure and how to cope with it are always debated. Thus a crisis would not strike the unprepared.

I do not want to spread subadult optimism. A large drop in the market is certainly possible at any time and highly likely eventually. But life will go on.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 22:28)
Need some help. Anyone. What exactly is the Gold and Silver forward lease rates and what are we looking for as bull or bear indicators with these - up or down? I tried this post in the stocks section but no help. How about it Mr. Cole?

(Tue Jun 17 1997 22:35)
@...GS Cole
I hope you are right.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 22:36)
Some more "crap"
Perhaps you will review some of your priors. Pay particular attention to those well thought, astute responses to my earlier arguments. Keep looking.... Perhaps you would like to go back to playing horseshoes. You remind me of nothing so much as two out of the three famous monkeys, You have no problem with the speaking, its the hearing and seeing that leaves you challenged. Read my future posts if you please, but spare no time in your response, I have yet to hear anything original from you in any case. Mostly a rehash of the last year on this group.

This place needed a new voice, but your fear is overwrought. If your ideas were people, inbreeding would have leeched out survivability eons ago. The harp is a beautiful instrument, with music as if from heaven, your h

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jun 17 1997 22:37)
STEVE PUETZ: I think you were intending to respond to the "other" Mike ( your 21:47 ) . ALL: Occasionally the intensity of finely focussed minds and rapier wit at Kitco, like a boxing match, rends tissue and brings fresh flows of blood. But it is all in the heat of the intellectual sport, is it not? Surely the ultimate joy of finding such kindred speculative souls ( even if they're all wrong ) far outweighs the bruises and buffets of our human indelicacies and commensurately deep egos. Gentlemen, as the final bell rings, embrace one another and vist each other's corner for a moment. I for one, despite whatever insults or idiocies are hurled my way, appreciate the free and open challenge ( and FUN ) of minds I respect and enjoy. And where else but Kitco can I spout MY idiocies, and not be literally run out of town or, in seamier days, burned at the stake?Thanks again Bart, for making it possible.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 22:38)
@ Pepino, what kinda Italiano are you ?
Any true Italiano would be out shragging his girlfriend while his wife is at home watching his 6 kids .... at this time of night ;- )

(Tue Jun 17 1997 22:39)
@Doom and Gloom - What are the motives?
Listening to the comments emerging from the recent Gold conference, you would think that all the traders and analysts were there to talk down the price of Gold.
If these interests are short Gold, it would explain why they are projecting such a level of gloom and doom.
Yes there is a lot of rumour about more CB sales, but nothing concrete has been anounced.
The average ounce is now mined @ 2 1/2 miles underground in South Africa.
The cost of mining an ounce of Gold is @ $340 in a large number of
mines today. The only profit they are earning is from hedging and forward sales. Were the price to drop to 320. for any length of time, these mines would shut and the CB's would have to take up this slack, on top of
the increased demand generated by the lower price. Somehow I don't think that price could hold very long...

(Tue Jun 17 1997 22:41)

Reading the various posts about how the 'end' will come for financial instruments, I posit the following. The end will come because a very few people of enormous wealth will transfer a large portion of thier wealth from financial to physical assets. Put simply, they will sell bonds and buy stuff. Stuff will likely take the form of easily storable commodities like precious and base metals. When this occurs, the rest of the idiots who slave over economic statistics will go "Ooooh, Ahhhh, the XXX ( fill in your favorite economic indicator which measures price changes ) is soaring! This must mean inflation is here! We must sell our bonds!!". End of financial assets.

Begining of Anecdote
Today, a fellow money manager who manages funds for wealthy individuals came by for a visit. This money manager works in the usual realm of stocks and bonds. For diversity sake, he gets his clients to throw a few chips into our pot. Today he told us of a longtime friend of his who is looking to diversify out of European paper where virtually all of his assets reside. I asked him, how much money he was talking about. He said a little under 2 billion. I offered that he should be all the above ground stocks of silver in the world. He laughed. I was serious. Someday, a handful of people with this kind of money will do the right thing. We will have 10 commodities that look like palladium. We will have bond markets that look like Albania. I truly hope we do not have more countries that look like Albania, but it is a real possibility.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 22:45)
Rhodes Scholar @ GOLD, go figure
The Rhodes Scholarship Program, of course, is where the most
intelligent people in all the schools of the world are identified
as early as grade VI: some are sent to private schools; the careers
of the others are tracked. If they maintain their standings, they
are given Rhodes Scholarships and brought to Oxford where they
form the backbone of the famous * think - tanks *

The smartest of these intellectuals get promoted into the permanent
government, hidden mandarins who are not elected but who are there
year in, year out, providing a continuing line of knowledge and power
for the controllers.

The second group are more visible, politicians with less power than
those on the inside. The intellectual combination of the two groups
is deadly for democracy.

Bob Rae, as X Prime Minister of Ontario, was referenced on the Kitco
site the other night, as being a Rhodes Scholar. Interesting, eh guys.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 22:49)
@ confusion
Sorry Mike Sheller, it was Mike M. that asked the question. Mike M.: It's important not to get distracted and confused between those things that are "economic" and those that are "financial." The good numbers coming out of Washington are all economic numbers -- measures of production, distribution, and consumption. The disasterous numbers have been the financial ones. Wall Street economists very seldom talk about them. The low savings rate, perennial deficits, and rising defaults all indicate that our financial foundation is crumbling to bits. In the long-run, we cannot have a solid economy without solid finances.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 22:50)
@ Overnight Delivery:
Nasdaq 100 Sep Futures now down -1050 vs -800 30 - 40 minutes ago. Watch out for those Indexes that go "bump" in the night.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 22:51)
Some more
Eldo, Baby - Perhaps you will review some of your priors. Pay particular attention to those well thought, astute responses to my earlier arguments. Keep looking. Perhaps you would like to go back to playing horseshoes. You remind me of nothing so much as two out of the three famous monkeys, You have no problem with the speaking, its the hearing and seeing that leaves you challenged. Read my future posts if you please, but spare no time in your response, I have yet to hear anything original from you in any case. Mostly a rehash of the last year on this group.

This place needed a new voice, a voice different from yours, but your fear is overwrought. Inbreeding has leeched out the survivability of you ideas eons ago. The harp is a beautiful instrument, with music as if from heaven, your harping enormously less so, sounding as much as shrill shrieking from the yammering magpies. Repeat your mantras if they bring you peace and calm your fear, the rest of the world will progress. Get out of the way. A speed bump does little but slow people down and, once passed, soon forgotten.

When I do post my views about the decline of western civilization, it will be as well thought out as I hope expressed. To those that will challenge, I am but a warrior for the working day. To you, Eldorado, after reviewing many of your previous posts to me, I must say, that you suck the fun right out of it. Your hostility is tiring. For you, I have no more time. You make me weary.

Thus, with slight regard, I apprise you, lad.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 22:53)
fights of the century
mike sheller: remember the 'heart' of jersey joe walcot?

(Tue Jun 17 1997 22:54)
Good story, D.A. All it will take is one little spark to start the paper-to-money shift. I still think a stock market crash will be the spark.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 22:55)
@the scene
RJ -- What? More of the same Blah Blah Blah! Is that all there is from you today? More name calling? My oh my, I'd say bend over and pull that hair out of you a_s! It seems to be stabbing your sensibilities! This place may need some new voices, but if this is all we can get ---

(Tue Jun 17 1997 22:57)
Byron: Do you get your night-OTC quotes from the Internet? If so, from which address? I appreciate your quote postings.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 22:59)
Night-night all. By the way, you too Ted if you're out there!!!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 23:00)

All this chatting about debts and bankrupcies got me thinking about our Canadian debt.

I just did some figuring. If the govt. of Canada wanted to back up our national debt through solid Gold, they'd have to purchase 1.85 BILLION ounces of Gold @ 350 per... Is there 1.85 Billion ozs of gold out there? As I said to D.A. ... Canada doesn't have a debt problem, it's the guy who lent us the money to who has the problem ... not us!


(Tue Jun 17 1997 23:02)
Is this close enough? So far this week gives us a Doji. Maybe we start the bounce up from here? Or, do we get one spike down, then up?

(Tue Jun 17 1997 23:08)
Good night all, and place your 'bets' on the bond chart. As for the NDX on Globex, well it is a thin market, and what reports are out tomorrow and Thursday????? Who told the FOBs what the reports would say anyhow?

(Tue Jun 17 1997 23:10)
Faster Than A Speeding Bullet:
Puetz: Overnight quote on Globex are available at You need to scroll down to the bottom and click on Globex Flash Page for the overnight stuff and remember to "reboot" every so often.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 23:11)
Gold Discussion for Investors & Market Analysts@
Platinum discussion for Investors & Market Analysts@noCB

(Tue Jun 17 1997 23:16)
I don't know about the rest of you, but I am still a little disoriented by the dizzying movement of platinum over the past few weeks! It has always been axiomatic that the price of platinum is tied to the price of gold. I don't believe that the price of platinum has been particularly constrained by the price of gold lately. I would welcome a comment or two by someone learned in the ways of platinum.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 23:23)
@forward viewing
Eldo & RJ :Boy are you guys ever going to have some fun on Bart's new open chat line. You'll be able to chat all night long and the rest of us can talk gold. Won't that be fun! A "salesman" of stocks trying to tell "Eldo" he's stupid for not realising how wonderful and knowledgeable a "salesman" he really is. He's sure convinced me! That should make that site worth watching for sure.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 23:26)
Good Night all!!

(Tue Jun 17 1997 23:32)
Opinion-technical update Dow,SP= VeryBullish Gold = Colourless to slightly Bearish XAU = Detached and bearish Dollar Poker-faced .With the round-the-clock fall of the dollar I am surprised Gold has not had even a idiot reaction to the upside.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 23:32)
ALL... Have noticed that almost all the newbies to the site ask practically the same questions....i.e...What will happen to gold stocks if the DOW crashes...???".."What are the best gold stocks to get in..???" "What is the best way for me to invest in gold or silver"...etc. For the regulars, we have been through these same questions a number of times and have had answers from many people responding in many different ways. Is there a way that we could establish a FAQ with a variety of posts that we all could access and the newbies could go to that gives a summary of posts reflecting all sides of basic issues ???? I welcome the newbies and hope they will stay and in no way is this post meant to discourage their participation. Quite to the contrary, it is meant as a way to let them see the wide diversity of KITCO thinking.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 23:38)
Shutting down
Interesting comment on the SI GoldDigger site by Zev Hed. Says the value of paper maney is partially based on the ability of the issuer to tax its population. Explains the Italian funny money.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 23:40)
While in quite meditation last Sunday I saw a clear vision
of a golden butterfly drinking nectare from a rose.
Clearly this is a buy signal.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 23:40)
And you are??
Onlooker - Never sold a stock in my life. Is it a custom of yours to speak about which you have no fathom? Must be fun to provoke though.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 23:40)
TO BART............
BART..........A tip of the hat to you for keeping this site up and running.....!!!!!The great diversity of thought here is beneficial to all!!!! I wish to express my appreciation.

(Tue Jun 17 1997 23:45)
nailz (NEWBIE QUESTIONS......):
TO ALL MARKET NYOPHITES: You must know first history before you can make an intelligent prediction of future prospects. May I offer as a starting point the following:
And every serious market should recall:

The study of history, while it does not endow with prophecy, may indicate lines of probability.

- John Steinbeck

TSE Stock Momentum Model
(Tue Jun 17 1997 23:46)

(Tue Jun 17 1997 23:48)
Delinquency update: From the vantage point of upstate NY, the booming economy looks and feels like a mirage. I passed by the local bike shop, and the business is off. People cant even buy a bike, much less a few thousand shares of ssc at 13/16. Poor souls. That giant sucking sound is the sum total of all the earnings of all the boomers going into 50 stocks.