Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Wed Jun 18 1997 00:01)
Mike Sheller With the likes of Charles Harvey, Michael Baigent and Nicholas Campion Astrology has come head on to the tuned minds of this generation.Mass psychology and the break-up of Russia was predicated by these great future thinkers in 1984 to the exact aftertime cycles.Yes I believe in cycles but it takes a great deal of study and I also think one must be gifted.
The 5.6 Taurus factor has certainly played a major role with Gold & Silver.The art of interrupting all the cycles and their aspects is a lifetime of mental anguish I can say that for at least the last thirty years.Keep up the insights .Happy Trails.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 00:48)
WW @ 21:10. As I have stated previously, your posts improve about 1 Zillion per cent when you stick to the main topic around here. You have had many good ones lately and I am only singling-out ( ? ) your 21:10 mas it was right on and made me laugh. Bravo!

Mike S. - I have been pondering about how to respond to your 'Tale of the Moon' and I come up short everytime. I could point out that many of the characteristics that you assign to me, I have already exposed to the Kitco world, but at the same time your compilation shows that you are no amateur, and I am indeed honoured that you even bothered. I would like to analysis bit by bit and could well do so but at the risk of boring the others. Without further ado, I salute you!
( Did anybody see that my hang-up with Moon signs etc. even extended to my description of PB's bravery in describing about 1,000 Scot's MOONING the Brits? ) I don't think anyone , including PB, even had the foggiest! )

(Wed Jun 18 1997 01:22)
Joke of the Eve
I could never compete with Tort, but I ran across this and thought everyone might like it:

Two nuns are ordered to paint a room in the
convent, and the last instructions of the
Mother Superior is that they must not get even
a drop of paint on their habits. After confer-
ring about this for a while the two nuns decided
to lock the room, strip off their habits, and
paint in the nude. In the middle of the project,
there comes a knock at the door. 'Who is it?'
calls one of the nuns, 'Blind Man,' replies a
voice from the other side of the door. The two
nuns look at each other and shrug, and deciding
that no harm can come from letting a blind man
into the room, they open the door............

"Nice breasts," says the man, "Where do you want
these window blinds?"

(Wed Jun 18 1997 01:44)
Afternoon boys and girls.... Yes its a 3:45pm here in sunny Brisbane town in Australia. I getting ready for the all night gold rally in yanky land. So buddooos, do you think gold may go up tonight ( tomorrow ) ?

John Disney
(Wed Jun 18 1997 01:48)
Someone asked me a day or so ago about the upcoming dries dividend which was "final" and would be 75 cents. I said not likely because I did not see how they could make enough to cover that by end June. Well they HAVE declared a 75 cent final
div end june following the same amount end december. Their earnings will be out in about a month.
There is a rumour that Buffels shareholders are so upset about how little they get in the DD merger that the whole deal
may fall through. This is a rumour that I may have started myself so I would wait for confimation before doing anything.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 02:16)
I hope the Dow goes up 300 points tonight. Yeeeeeeeaaaaaahhhh, means my gold shares at 9c should go to about 90c after the crash ( thats going to happen ) .

John Disney
(Wed Jun 18 1997 02:31)
For Coder -
I dont think anyone "KNOWS" whats going on in
platinum. I offer my own theory which is based on
observation of output prices and statements which
suggests what the underlying mechanism may be.
1. The shortage in palladium was worse than people
had assumed it was. The russians had been selling
twice their production and balancing from their
2. Automakers have now been squeezed. They must have
formulated emmision catalyst to maximize what was
cheap palladium at that time. Presumably they also
held minimum stockpiles ( probably led by a "just in
time" bright lad from Harvard ) counting on the russian
3. The Harvard kid is probably on the streets now.
The Automakers must be reformulating catalysts more
in line with normal PGM production ratios with more
platinum and ( must be ) some rhodium.
4. One of the carmakers will probably try to shake
platinum hoarders soon with a report that their
research departments have developed a new catalyst
based on something really cheap like rusty nails or
maybe Bernatz's bacteria ridden dirt. Or maybe they
will report that Ford's non-existent exploration
department has discovered a vast PGM deposit in some
extraordinary place - Kaffiristan maybe.
5. Possible surprise package. Japanese prefer platinum
jewelry to gold. I lived their for 8 years and I
dont know why really. Perhaps the explanation rests in
a word they use sometimes - shibui ( ?? ) - in their
esthetic assessment of things. Maybe plat is more
shibui than gold. Anyway IF the CHINESE start thinking
the same way then watch out because NO ONE will be
able to fill that kind of a future jewelry demand.

I would appreciate any comments particularly on
point no 5 above - What is a clear definition of
shibui - is that the right word or am I confused ?

Pepino di Cortino
(Wed Jun 18 1997 02:45)
Bel'Paesa Cortina, nel Dolomiti

Ciao Bob: Abouta the ( 22:38 ) Il denaro non e sempre li,
le signorene, esse sempre li. Domani e una altro giorno.

I'ma tri to teecha you guyz, dat watta the govervamento
she taka, she neva giva back; she use it againsta you,
thatsa whata Ima say.

Counties in NA sholda hanga togedda as separti contries
and be gooda Paisani with eacha other. Itsa betta.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 03:11)
Mr. Disney: To build on your post, while I was researching the white PGM
metals a few months ago. I came across two personal facts that lead me
to jump into palladium ( could of been platinum in hindsight ) . 1 ) I played
golf with JIT consultant to Honda Motors. He was positive Honda never
kept more then 1 or 2 days of inventory. 2 ) I know a Korean woman
who is very upto date with the latest fashion trends. She told me that
Platinum is the perferred jewellry among the trendy far easterns. It
supposely matches the skin tones better then gold. Sounded crazy to
me, but what do I know about fashion?

Yes, this is how I invest. Some guy I met once on a golf course and
the advice of a fashion princess. Sounds crazy, but I'm the one golfing

Simple Simon
(Wed Jun 18 1997 03:18)
On the plane trip back from Prague

A distinct smell of urine was detected on the plane
loaded with gold bears on the return trip from Prague.
Furthermore, the blue upholstered seats had a tint of
green as they arose to embark from the plane.

Something big is about to occur, but only after they push
gold down about $10.

Don't give up the ship.

John Disney
(Wed Jun 18 1997 03:45)
for Mike
Re your comment to the effect that a solution to the
"debt bubble" will be found and that people would
accept whatever hardships that would be required to fix
Wow - While I have a mind set problem accepting a
collapse of the world financial system, I have a MUCH
BIGGER problem accepting what you just said.
Look MIKE the reason that we have the dept BALLOON
is that governments world wide were unable to tax
all their populations sufficiently to cover their
expenditures - so they borrowed the money as required.
The fools were the guys that LENT them the money
or bought thier debt. IF the people couldnt be taxed
enough to cover in the first place, how come you think
they can be "docilely" taxed to cover NOW to save the
skins of the idiots that bought the debt ??? Think
again old buddy.
I got a BIG FAT PICTURE of Americans accepting a
doubling of their tax rate or a 20% vat or a 25% petrol
tax to proctect Japanese buyers of US bonds from a US
default while they lose their jobs to Japanese car
I would appreciate any comments on the above. The
whole idea of government bonds seems like such an
obviously transparant Ponzi scheme to me that I am
afraid I must be missing something.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 04:02)
Crystal Ball and PANDA, thanks for all the help with my STILLWATER float vs. shares outstanding question. I was thinking along the right track, but wanted to be certain. ( I like to be certain about important things like "I'm "certain" we can make the runway from here crew" ) .

VRONSKY, I was touched by the Kitco "military salute" you gave me--much appreciated. Although I'm periodically troubled knowing my paycheck depends on taxes, I'm happy to report that Uncle Sam is getting his money's worth out of the men and women I serve with.

JOHN DISNEY, just when I was sitting here thinking how I could repay you for so generously keeping me and my fellow Kitcovites up to speed on S.A. shares, I ran across your Japanese "SHIBUI" question. I can certainly help you there my friend. If I had a Krugerrand for every Japanese dictionary I own, I'd be retired by now!! And certainly better than any of my dictionaries, I recently married a cute little Japanese goldbug! And as your post eluded to, she and the rest of Japan prefer Platinum to Gold-I'll fire that SHIBUI question at her the minute she walks in. I was amazed while shopping with her here in Japan for her engagement ring and our wedding rings, to see so much Platinum. I'd guess most stores carried 8 to 10 times as much Platinum as Gold. Many stores we visited carried no gold and only platinum!!.

As you stated:

"IF the CHINESE start thinking

the same way {about Platinum as the Japanese}

then watch out because NO ONE will be

able to fill that kind of a future jewelry demand.

I've often considered the same thing, and agree that this would be a stunning development in the metals markets. I think it has a long ways to go though. I was in Thailand and Hong Kong a few years ago, and I don't recall seeing much platinum, but was shocked to see gold jewelry stores everywhere. People that think this demand will fad away haven't been there!! Asians have loved gold for thousands of years, and this isn't going to change just because they can now afford a TV instead. If anything, I'd bet ( or am betting! ) that as Asian income rises, so will gold purchases. They don't just consider gold as something one wears, THEY CONSIDER IT MONEYwow, what a concept!

John Disney
(Wed Jun 18 1997 04:32)
for the Roebear and others
If you recall, I said that I may have started a rumour about the
Durban Deep deal. I did NOT repeat not start that rumour. There may
be trouble. This what I sound like when I'm being circumspect.

John Disney
(Wed Jun 18 1997 04:44)
For Buddy and other sports fans
I have a video of the Jersey Joe - Rocky Marciano
fight - a gift from by broker ( see how nice they treat
you down here - I havent watched it yet ) - there are 5
others with a set of three Iron Mike fights - Spinks
included _ I will study these to seek examples of Mike's
"knee lock" problem that I mentioned before.

John Disney
(Wed Jun 18 1997 05:05)
For The Polarbear
Please see what I wrote to Roebear. Im getting you bears mixed up.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 06:49)
My local bank shoul offer a deal like this. Imagine, buying gold at a bank! That's what some Japanese are doing.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Jun 18 1997 07:08)
Overcast in NY, Undercast in Gold Market
MOONEY: Thanks for your response. The idea is really not to tell you stuff we don't already know. That becomes a parlor game. The thought is to delve into the literal abstract building blocks of reality. If we understand the pieces of the puzzle, perhaps we can make more sense of the big picture. In this regard, we ALL have the same planets, Moon, Sun, signs, degrees, etc, working around and within us. We are just each different COMBINATIONS of those essential particulars of the Human Condition. If we think of the Human Condition as an aberration of the perfection we can imagine, but cannot quite see our way to obtain, then we are getting somewhere, and have somewhere to go. If we accept "reality" as it is, as we have been fed by the deluded sleepwalkers around us, then we have nowhere to go. And we go nowhere.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 07:12)
Just a thought, but if the CBs want to dump gold, I'll have to figure out a way to be paid in gold! :- ) ) Now those are 'weighty' coins I wouldn't mind carrying around! :- ) ) :- ) )

Another thought, the summer season is cruel to tech stocks! Seagate, Oracle, and Dell have :- ( news to report. OOOOoooopppps! Damn bananna peels!

(Wed Jun 18 1997 07:19)
Something To Think About
TED, Good Morning, Something to think about over coffee.

If CB banks are controlling the price of gold as many here believe;
If the price of Gold is capped by bank selling as is contended;
If increasing producer supply will offset jewelery demand as the Mining Journal predicts;
If Gold is no longer a valid hedge as Mr. Arnold always reminds;
If the golden age of gold jewelery has expired according to CRU International;
If infinite supply will forever minimize price as often reported;
If demonitized gold will drop like falling silver according to Mr. Smith;
If Platinum, Paladium and Silver are superior to Gold as some here contest;
If there is no inflation according to governmental statistics;
If Gold should be sold according to the FED;
If the Dollar will always be king according to those who hold it;
If the US economy has entered Nirvana as the DOW suggests;
If the DOW will never come down as many now expect;
If gold equities will collapse as Mr. Prechter warns;
If bullion will outperform equities as many here argue;
If equities are purchased with a longer time horizon according to common belief;
If industry executives cannot find a reason to invest in Gold, as stated by Gold Conference reporters; and
If indeed there is no reason to buy Gold according to daily news releases;
Why are Gold and the XAU not making new lows;
Why is the XAU higher when compared to bullion when Gold was previously at this level;
Why is the XAU continuing to perform better than bullion in spite of the Bre-x sell-off; and
Why do almost all gold stocks listed on the NYSE and ASE have a "B" ( with a few better ) Investor's Business Daily accumulation/ distribution rating;
Who are the psuedo-foolish buyers supporting the market and why would they possibly want to buy Gold and Gold equities.

No Response intended, just something to think about

(Wed Jun 18 1997 07:21)
Re: Joke
Ron, I like the joke. It'll get circulation from here.

George S. Cole
(Wed Jun 18 1997 07:28)
rich man's depression?
WW: Really enjoy your posts. Your hypothesis about a stock market collapse leading to a rich man's depression very thought provoking.

Let's face it -- in todays economy the stock market tends to move inversely to the well being of the average American. Workers worse off on average than 15 years ago; stockholders much better off. Gap wider than at any tine since the 1920s. But workers suffered along with the rich in the 1930s. They may well suffer a lot after the current bubble crashes until they can organize more effectively.

August gold up 30 cents despite all the bearish talk. The gold complex still looks lower short-term, but I grow more confident every day that we are on the verge of a buying opportunity at least as good as 1976. The frantic attempts of the financial establishment to push bullion down smells to high heaven.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 07:32)
Joke of the morning
I'll be out of the office all day. Usually something big happens in the markets when I decide not to monitor for awhile. Therefore, you all ought to get ready for an unexpected runup in gold and silver. Now for a second joke.

After Quasimodo's death, the bishop of the cathedral of Notre Dame sent word through the streets of Paris that the services of a new bell ringer would be required. The bishop decided that he would conduct the interviews personally and went up into the belfry to begin the screening process.

After observing several applicants demonstrate their skills, he decided to call it a day when a lone, armless man approached him and announced that he was there to apply for the bell ringers job.

The bishop was incredulous. "You have no arms!" "No matter," said the man, "observe!" He then began striking the bells with his face, producing a beautiful melody on the carillon. The bishop listened in astonishment, convinced that he had finally found a suitable replacement for Quasimodo.

Suddenly, rushing forward to strike a bell,the armless man tripped, and plunged headlong out of the belfry window to his death in the street below. The stunned bishop rushed to his side.

When he reached the street, a crowd had gathered around the fallen figure, drawn by the beautiful music they had heard only moments before. As they silently parted to let the bishop through, one of them asked, "Bishop, who was this man?"

"I don't know his name," the bishop sadly replied, "but his face sure rings a bell."

(Wed Jun 18 1997 07:37)
Joke of the day continued
As Paul Harvey would say, here is the rest of the story.

The following day, despite the sadness that weighed heavily on his heart due to the unfortunate death of the armless man the bishop continued his interviews for the bell ringer of Notre Dame. The first man to approach him said, "Your excellency, I am the brother of the poor, armless wretch that fell to his death from this very belfry yesterday. I pray that you
honor his life by allowing me to replace him in this duty."

The bishop agreed to give the man an audition, and as the armless man's brother stooped to pick up a mallet to strike the first bell, he groaned, clutched at his chest and died on the spot. Two monks, hearing the bishop's cries of grief at this second tragedy, rushed up the stairs to
his side. "What has happened?" the first breathlessly asked, "Who is this man?"

"I don't know his name," sighed the distraught bishop,"but he's a dead ringer for his brother."

(Wed Jun 18 1997 07:50)
Tortfeasor -- :- ) ) :- ) )

Vieserre -- Yes. Didn't Bill Buckler ( sp? ) say at his site that the lower gold is Forced to go, the bigger the 'problem' must be? The fear expressed by the 'establishment' is in direct proportion to their assault on the price of the precious metals. Clearly, rhetoric is at an extreme. Am I to conclude from this that the 'enemy' ( ? ) is low on ammunition? Just a thought.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 07:51)
Gold just popped up a $1.10, Hmmmmm.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 07:56)
Trouble in Japans PGMs market????

(Wed Jun 18 1997 07:58)
PANDA: If I were short, and if the constant barrage of negative news is not affecting my stock or bullion, I would be getting powerful concerned. Somebody besides us is buying. And it is being done quietly. Some stocks I observe are like oil on water, they keep floating up.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 07:59)
@New England/The Proof is in the Pudding
Re: Gold Conference and CB gold. The Propaganda intent of the CB gold sale talk is patently obvious when you realize that the total proceeds from the sale of ALL CB gold would raise perhaps 375 billion. This does not even account for the fact that they probably dont even have the billion ounces they profess due to outstanding gold loans. But for arguments sake we will use the 375 billion no. for the amount that would be raised from the sale. My friends this would equal less one years payment of interest on the US debt. Further US share of the proceeds would be 95 billion. Obviously these numbers are so insignificant it stands to reason that all of the talk of CB sales can only have as a rational basis an attempt to control psychology of the gold market rather than the purported "savings" such sales would generate. Any sophisticated analysis can see how ridiculous and inconsequential the gold sales would be in revenues in relation to the overall financial structure. However, such talk does effect mass psychology and producer psychology. I would argue that given their desire to control prices there is not a chance in hell the CBs will sell a single ounce/ they probably want to secretly accumulate. The Bull is getting close.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 08:00)
Talk about revisions! Read the 'looking forward' text at the bottom. 1987 to 1996?

(Wed Jun 18 1997 08:00)
What is your source? Gold popped up $1.10

Mike Sheller
(Wed Jun 18 1997 08:04)
Critical Week
Remember Gang, August gold gets thru 346.50 it's RALLY time. And it looks like we're gonna do it. Bonds may be running out of steam. If the downtrend line at 113 is the cap, then this week may be a subtle, but critical technical juncture. The leaden Dow Utility Average is still the crystal ball that's telling us this move in bonds may soon abort. Last chance. Last dance.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 08:07)
Shek -- Now up $0.80 I use EBN, try this URL;

For something lighter, they still haven't cleared the thirty five snow drifts from the "Going to the Sun Road" in Glacier Park, Montana! Beautiful place! Someday we'll have to go back there! Go to go to slave duties now, be in and out. Good luck to all 'traders' today! To paraphrase, "We are all traders now!", big and small.... :- ) )


(Wed Jun 18 1997 08:08)
El Nino is baaaaaaaaaaaaaaack!...Glenn ( 20:15,6/17 ) You are right so far ( S+P futures down 1.90 ) ...Vieserre: was that for me??

(Wed Jun 18 1997 08:09)
Price of gold
In the early to mid 1960's with gold at 35 an ounce there was much talk by our elite and in the "free press" about decoupling the dollar from gold. Arthur Burns then the chairman of the fed, and everybodys grandfather, said if the gov stopped supporting gold he believed its price would fall to about 6-8 dollars an ounce. In fifteen years of course, it was about one hundred times that price. And yes, they did do the decouple.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 08:10)
Who else?
TED: Sure as hell was.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 08:15)
The Glacier park post should have read, "Thirty five foot deep snow drifts", that's what happens when we work in haste! :- ) )

(Wed Jun 18 1997 08:18)
Don't look now, but someone is selling the Globex NDX out. Good Morning TED!

(Wed Jun 18 1997 08:22)
@It just keeps gettting better and better!

Parliment approves changes to central bank charter:

And then they want to lend it out!

(Wed Jun 18 1997 08:29)
Mornin Panda:Long Bond down three ticks...S+P futures down 3.05 ( and fallin ) ..Comex scoreboard: Gold up .60; Silver up .8 of a cent; platinum down 4.1; and Palladium down 2.90...Will be commin down yer way on Sunday fer a week stay on Swan's Island,Maine....

(Wed Jun 18 1997 08:38)
Vieserre: Please don't swear...I've never heard such words!...Thought it was fer me and not Butler....I agree with what you said and feel gold and gold equities are in a no-lose situation these days as they're so out of flavor...or should I say favor...S+P futures down 3.25....Back to Gold: Little downside risk with mucho upside POTENTIAL....Stock market: Good chance of correction or even grinding bear market but no end in sight fer Western civilization or the stock market @ 250...S+P futures down 3.90!

(Wed Jun 18 1997 08:42)
Vieserre: And by the way....What are you doing up so early??...Don't know if I can handle 3 weeks away from the internet-Kitco.....and am startin to get the shakes already....

(Wed Jun 18 1997 09:07)
TED: I am one of those early riser people. Hope you enjoy yourself. Will miss your posts and their humor. The Dow will probably be at 250 by the time you get back. : ) )

(Wed Jun 18 1997 09:09)

To the poster of:

TSE Stock Momentum Model

They seem to inply that what was will continue short term. However, the AULT food 1st place was "up" from takeover buyouts increases. That can't be sustained near term. Wonder why BEMA GOLDS great but Pegasus is NOT?

MOONEY:Has Louie Seize spoken yet?
StradMaster:Any further words from your "broker" regarding cooperation?
Aurophile:What about the DTTI?
BYRON:Where are you? Did they lose your library card?
OLDMAN:Where are you when we need you? Come out of retirement please...


(Wed Jun 18 1997 09:12)
Hi Jin: You have a missive!...What in the world is happening to the S.E.T as it was down 14.78 ( 3% ) @ 482.94...That's almost a 6% loss in the last two trading days!...The market is at an eight and a half year LOW and now the rumor is the finance minister is going to resign....Do you know MORE?

(Wed Jun 18 1997 09:14)


Hey ted my friend, If you're gonna live in the great white north, you've got to start spelling "favor" like "favour". You forgot the U ! Talk Canadian eh! ( :- ) ) )


(Wed Jun 18 1997 09:17)
Vieserre: I figured you were an early riser! and was only jerkin yer chain...Still don't see Dow 250 by the time I get back.....275 I see...but 250...NO WAY!

(Wed Jun 18 1997 09:21)
Front: Sorry....I was always a sloooow learner...I hope you are takin it easy today!

(Wed Jun 18 1997 09:35)
o wise one
Talking about buying gold coins:

(Wed Jun 18 1997 09:35)
Front: If you go back to the TSE Momentum site you can follow some "hot spots" back to serveral other similiar TSE sites and a page or 2 of assumptions. Odd to see interest in the TSE on this list of marginalized

George S. Cole
(Wed Jun 18 1997 09:35)
TED Spread
See the following URl for a dissenting opinion on the likely course of monetary policy. TED spread way up -- will Greenie hike rates 50 basis points in July?

(Wed Jun 18 1997 09:44)
RAMTHA: HAHAHAHAHA....neighbor Eddie was into Ramtha last year....

Steve (Perth - Western Australia)
(Wed Jun 18 1997 09:49)
North Korea starting to heat up...serious threat to USA & S.Korea of war

(Wed Jun 18 1997 09:52)
JIN: Thank you very much for your QUICK reply to my e-mail!...I hope you have a good trip and a GOOD TIME when you get to Hong Kong!...

(Wed Jun 18 1997 09:52)
ONE NITE IN BANGKOK..............
thanks for the mail and check your mail box.
this is the popular paper in thailand,for all who interested in "TSE! "

(Wed Jun 18 1997 10:00)
HI JIN! Look at that...we double posted! Thanks for the Bangkok Post site!

Steve (Perth - Western Australia)
(Wed Jun 18 1997 10:03)
More evidence that the Banking Crisis is starting to heat up
They have kept the Thai Crisis well hidden.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 10:04)
MORNING GANG......Am also going to be away for a few days....Leaving Friday...Headed down to the Atlantic side of Florida for a few and then over to the Gulf of Mexico for a few. Will have internet access some of the time, so won't have complete withdrawal as poor TED.....

(Wed Jun 18 1997 10:19)
NAILZ: Don't rub it in ....buddy!....Time to make ze bread...

(Wed Jun 18 1997 10:29)
Good morning everyone. Did anyone see the Frontline story on PBS last night. I know someone mentioned it a few days ago. Anyway the story was about Switzerland's stance during WW2. It really blew my mind. They made the knomes look like a bunch of nazis. They kept showing over and over stacked bars of gold and gold being smelted. It was surreal. I kind of got the feeling that they were trying to communicate that gold is tainted with the blood of dead jews. It also painted a very ugly picture of the Swiss. That they profited immensely from the war, that they turned jews back at the border, and that they turned stolen nazi gold into hard currency that allowed the germans to prolong the war. But mostly I got the impression that they were trying to shape some sort of thought in people's mind. No doubt the holocost was horrific and I pray that this never happens to any group of people again. The continued and repeated reference to gold in the program leaves me scratching my head. Did anyone see this program? What are your thoughts?

(Wed Jun 18 1997 10:33)
In a dream I saw a mountain top of Barron's Market Labratory
Stats crumbling to the desert valley below; the numbers
scurring about, swirling falling into even deeper holes and
crevicies: Surely this ia sign of the end of the Great Bull
In another vision I saw the Golden Butterfly ( mentioned in
previous posts ) gathering the last drops of the nector of
sustinence ( the great gold base line ) in order to take wing
to the blue heavens above.
As we know the butterfly's flight path is not smooth but
flits about but it eventually soars above the tree tops
far out of sight.
Opportunity knocks how many times?

(Wed Jun 18 1997 10:43)
TED Spread @ require more information
George S. Cole June 18 @ 9:35 George, this is information I have
been looking for, any addition information site's, regarding TED
Spread, would be appreciated. Thanks again.

Steve (Perth - Western Australia)
(Wed Jun 18 1997 10:47)
PANDA: Your bond charts are excellent! I would like to say thank you
very much to all contributors making this a riveting site. The evidence
is quite overwhelming, when you look at it! Keep up the good work.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 10:58)
Bulgaria & Slovenia??? Next is Albania, Russia, & Haiti!!!
9:11 p.m. EDT, June 17, 1997

European Union Leaders Work
on Pact To Launch New Era

Associated Press Writer

AMSTERDAM, Netherlands ( AP ) -- European Union leaders failed to reach consensus on an ambitious overhaul of its basic charter early Wednesday, but salvaged enough changes to pave the way for the EU's eastward expansion.

Their two-day summit was aimed at ensuring that the union operates efficiently after it begins increasing its membership by as many as a dozen countries, perhaps as early as 2003. The leaders worked into the night to sort out differences over rules governing their 15-nation partnership.

"We can start now at least with the process of enlargement ( negotiations ) in six months," said Bob Hiensch, spokesman for Dutch Foreign Minister Hans van Mierlo.

However, the failure to fully resolve institutional reform issues that were to be part of a grander overhaul of the EU's fundamental treaty will force another round of revisions.

The partial deal was announced after leaders gave up on efforts to let the EU take on a defense role, as favored by France and Germany. Opposition by several countries, led by Britain, forced the leaders to drop the initiative.

"Europe has not proved it can run a common foreign policy, let alone a common defense policy," said British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

British officials said Blair also told his colleagues that giving the EU a defense role would unnecessarily provoke Russia and complicate the union's plans to add a dozen or so Eastern European countries.

Other issues that split the leaders were plans to drop the unanimity requirement on foreign policy votes, and a proposal that would prevent groups of smaller countries from diluting the votes of larger members.

They did agree on proposals to end all border controls, while allowing Britain, Ireland and Denmark to opt out.

Problems involving the launch of a single European currency in 1999, meanwhile, refused to go away.

Just when everybody thought they had a deal, French Finance Minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn said Paris would insist on a flexible interpretation of financial rules.

Countries wanting to adopt the new currency, known as the euro, have to meet targets of low inflation, small budget deficits and falling debt by the end of this year to qualify.

Strauss-Kahn, however, said countries that are close to meeting the criteria but not quite there should be allowed to qualify. In addition, France's European affairs ministers, Pierre Moscovici, cast doubt on whether France would be able to participate at all.

But French Prime Minister Lionel Jospin said his country has "a fundamental commitment" to monetary union on Jan. 1, 1999. "I'm deeply devoted to the launch of the single currency ... on the given date," he said.

Germany, Britain and others strongly oppose any softening of the criteria, which they feel will lead to a lack of fiscal discipline and weaken the euro.

On defense, some countries favored extending the role of the Western European Union, a military organization founded in 1954 that has been largely moribund. The French in particular are interested in transforming it into a real military arm of the EU.

Van Mierlo, foreign minister of the Netherlands, whose country currently holds the EU presidency, dismissed any military role for the union. "NATO will remain the ... basis for defense matters," he said.

The Amsterdam negotiations are an effort to revise the Maastricht Treaty, which itself was an update to the Treaty of Rome, the EU's fundamental charter.

The goal is to simplify decision-making to prepare the EU for a near-doubling of its ranks. Twelve countries -- Turkey, Cyprus, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Slovenia -- are knocking on the EU's door.

Enlargement negotiations are to begin in 1998, but only if a reform package is adopted by the EU leaders and ratified by the legislatures of the current EU members or voted on by residents. This could take as long as two years.

If you can't say anything good about someone, sit right here by me.
Alice Roosevelt Longworth

War is like love; it always finds a way.
Bertolt Brecht ( 1898-1956 )

(Wed Jun 18 1997 10:58)
@Steve (Perth)
Good story from Thailand. Another currency in trouble and being controlled by the gov't. This is exactly why CB's need Gold in their vaults... I agree with WW that the CB's are just sabre rattling, and they will end up selling very little Gold. How much time could they buy by selling 360 Billion of Gold? This is peanuts in todays global markets.
I've been to Sydney a while back... Great place.
It must be winter there now?

(Wed Jun 18 1997 11:06)
L Steve @ Frontline: Panda is the ONE who mentioned it so ask him...I meant to watch it but forgot.....John Disney ( 4:44 ) I saw "iron Mike" in person a few times and never saw this "knee lock"....but that was in his prime!...and I think the rape charges were bogus....Evander ain't the "white Night" the media makes em out to be...either...

George s. Cole
(Wed Jun 18 1997 11:07)
stock market
GLENN: Looks like the market has indeed made a short-term peak, but I doubt we have seen the final top. Small cap stocks still lagging; these should have a strong blowoff before the final top. A bull market as powerful as this more likely to terminate with a huge reversal than just a gradual loss of momentum. Say up 300 points one morning, but then down 150 points by the close. .

Bullion flat today, but gold stocks continue to drop. Their relentless decline even on days when bullion rallies, probably is signalling a final break in the yellow metal quite shortly. I suspect that when gold does break below $340, the gold stocks will hold up quite well. That will be the time to buy.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 11:19)
XAU down 1.03 and Dow down 52....Weather so bad am losing the satellite signal...Time fer chainsawin in the rain....

(Wed Jun 18 1997 11:19)
On Goldwatch in Sydney
Good Morning to you and all other contributor's to Kitco. Perth, Sydney, all So.Hemis. going into winter. @ 01:15 air 9.0c with light rain. Back to Gold...I find an extraordinary bearish pall sems to be emanating from the entrails of the FT conference in Prague. Why isn't gold trading at the legendary $325 an ounce ?

Happy trading to all

(Wed Jun 18 1997 11:23)
Long Post
Sorry about the length of that last post. I got the story from the Associated Press News Wire at AFAIK, the only way you can access it is through an affiliated newspaper ( one whose page loads in a reasonable time! ) . Another source of streaming news for Kitcoites.

Kitco is great exercise for the ol' brain. Too bad it doesn't take care of all our exercise requirements. Off to the gym.

A plan is just a tangent vector on the manifold of reality.
"Skratch" Garrison

"What are politicians going to tell people when the
Constitution is gone and we still have a drug problem?"
-- William Simpson, A.C.L.U.

Lyndon LaRouche
(Wed Jun 18 1997 12:07)
@is a Goldbug??
At any time, soon, the second big financial blow
of 1997 will bring a new round of temporary
panic into financial markets around the world. If it
has not already arrived by the time you read this
report, you may expect it to arrive, soon. There
are reasons to expect this next round to be worse
than the blows which began to pummel financial
markets this past mid-March. The question is: is
this up-coming, next downturn likely to be "The
Big One," that sinks the international financial
system? That is a possibility, but, I tend to believe
that relevant institutions could, and will contain the
next crunch before it reaches the point of
detonating the "Big One." How soon should we
expect the "Big One"? Or, is that the wrong

During the recent weeks, most of those
highly-placed sources, with whom EIR is in
frequent discussion of these matters, have
expressed agreement with my estimate, that the
next international financial crunch is due soon, and
that, when it strikes, it will be much worse than
the crunch which hit beginning mid-March. A
significant number of high-ranking sources, have
made similar forecasts, independently of my own.
Any reader who has had the opportunity to scan
the news media of key countries in Eurasia during
recent weeks, would have encountered published
statements showing that highly placed insiders are
warning of an oncoming financial downturn much
worse than that which blew over a couple months

Meanwhile, an increasing number from relevant
circles are coming to share my estimate, that the
present international financial system will be
extinct before the turn of the century. My point
has been, that there is no way we can stop the
international financial {Titanic} from sinking; but,
that we can, and must act to save the passengers,
before they go down with the doomed ship. The
passengers we must pull off the sinking ship, are
the United States, and other nations, and their

The importance of my forecast, is that it is
designed to forewarn governments and others, to
take timely preventive action to prevent the
present series of international financial crises from
setting off a general, global economic
break-down crisis. It is not a matter of
"predicting" what will happen; it is a matter of
turning the financial {Titanic} about, soon enough
to avoid hitting the lurking icebergs which lie just

What must be done, to turn things around, is no
small thing. It is a very drastic action. It involves
action by a powerful group of nations, to bring the
present international financial and monetary
system to a sudden end, and, simultaneously erect
a new, and healthy form of international financial,
monetary, and trade system to replace the dying,
utterly bankrupt existing financial, monetary, and
trade system. This is no small matter.

This point is made clearer, by referring to a
meeting which I had, back during the mid- 1970s,
with Jacques Rueff, the famous economist who
had been President Charles de Gaulle's leading
advisor on economic matters. The purpose of the
meeting, was to review my assessment of the
then-current trends in the international monetary
system, and to discuss a proposal for international
monetary reform, which I was putting on the table
at that time. M. Rueff stated that he agreed with
my general assessment of the international
monetary situation, but warned that none of the
relevant existing politicians had the intellect and
courage to act. I share with you now, the
illustration which he stated to me then; it will help
you to appreciate the difficulties of
decision-making which will tend to puzzle the will
of key statesmen, such as President Bill Clinton.

M. Rueff summarized the history behind France's
successful adoption of the so-called "heavy
franc." He had proposed it as necessary, but
President de Gaulle soon returned to present the
reply, that all of his other advisors opposed the
proposal. M. Rueff explained, that he had replied
to his President: "I stake my entire life's reputation
on the certainty that the heavy franc will succeed."
As, of course, it did. It was that commitment by
an outstanding professional, which prompted de
Gaulle to respond, after a reflective pause, with
words to the effect: "We shall do it."

Although more and more leading figures,
especially senior ones, are coming around to
acceptance of my general forecast on the nature
of the present international financial crisis, virtually
none, so far, have been willing to stick their necks
out publicly on the crucial political issues of
needed institutional reform of the monetary and
financial systems. Therefore, so far, the likelihood
that the world will not drop soon into a "general
breakdown crisis," hangs, at least to a very large
degree, on the recognition of my authority as an
economic forecaster.

Our President, and some other heads of state, are
being carried down a raging financial torrent of
successive financial crises and economic
disasters, toward the rocks. Soon, they must act,
in the sense that de Gaulle's support of Rueff's
proposal was crucial in rescuing France from the
wreckage which the Fourth Republic's policies
had made of the national economy. So far, mine is
the only publicly visible forecast which addresses
that awesome reality. If heads of state recognize
my authority in this specialized matter, that is
good; but, the best among today's elected officials
are not likely to rely on their own judgment,
alone. If even the best among them do not think
my authority can be "sold" to a significant part of
their constituency, they are unlikely to act.

The present circumstances of deepening,
intertwined, international financial, monetary, and
economic crisis, have produced a situation, both
in the U.S.A., and world-wide, in which the
controversy over my personal authority as an
economist has become a central practical political
issue of policy-shaping for a growing number of
governments and other potent institutions. On this
account, it is necessary to point to my uniquely
successful record as an economic forecaster, and
to emphasize the source of the outstanding
success I have enjoyed on that account, during a
period of more than three decades to date.

Under the present conditions, as defined by the
accelerating rate of degeneration of the present
international financial system, especially since the
U.S. financial crunch of October 1987, the
question of who is a competent economic
forecaster, and what is the source of his, or her
competence, has become a first-rate question of
national policy-making for all leading
governments. On that account, it is necessary that
my warnings and proposals be juxtaposed to a
summary chronicle of my record as a forecaster
since 1956.

On that account, it is necessary for the general
welfare of our people and their posterity, that the
proofs of my authority in this matter be conveyed
in a prominent and forceful way. For that reason,
the following chronicle, summarizing my history as
a forecaster, is presented.

The political problem

The gravest economic problem faced by leading
governments today, is, that most governments,
and the majority of U.S. citizens continue to
disagree with my warnings about the need for
drastic actions to deal with the fact that the
international financial system is already hopelessly
bankrupt. Over this issue, the officials of the
International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) have
expressed open and intense personal hatred
against me. In and around the U.S. government,
for example, some of the most violent
disagreement comes from the wild-eyed "free
trade" fanatics, such as the neo-conservative and
theo-conservative followers of Texas Senator Phil
Gramm and "Diamond Pat" Robertson.
Otherwise, some of the most hysterical
disagreement is expressed by the managers and
dupes of that giant "Ponzi Scheme" known as the
mutual-funds market. Inside the U.S.A., the most
numerous opposition comes from ordinary wishful
thinkers, whose argument is fairly summed up by
the words: "You are wrong. You will see, that
they would never let such a thing happen to my

The issue is not simply that they happen to
disagree with my forecast. The problem is, their
opposition to our government's taking the kinds of
actions needed to prevent the worst, world-wide
economic depression in modern history from
becoming an irreversible, and horrible state of
affairs for a long time to come. The problem is
that very large ration of people who refuse,
irrationally, hysterically, to get off the sinking
financial {Titanic} until after it has "actually sunk."

Here, inside the U.S.A., for example, there are
two related, but distinct topics to consider, when
reviewing political attitudes on the present global
financial crisis.

Really sane people in the Americas, Europe, and
Japan, such as trade-unionists, farmers,
industrialists, and so on, agree that the 1990s
have turned out to be "hard times," and are
becoming worse. In these countries, most senior
officials from the ranks of industrialists, bankers,
and other relevant professionals, see a series of
ever-worse hard bumps in the financial and
economic roads immediately ahead; those who
deny reality on this matter are typified by the U.S.
"Yuppie" ( "Baby Boomer" ) stratum among
officials in government and the private sector, not
to speak of those wild-eyed specimens who
dominate the ranks of mutual-funds managements.
The rising, persisting strike wave which is shaking
the governments of Europe, reflects increasing
popular perception of the reality, that "hard times"
are here, and becoming ever worse.

Meanwhile, in these same countries, those, like
the neo-conservatives, who insist that "free trade"
will "kiss your boo-boos and make them better,"
such as the "Contract on America" enthusiasts
here, form the political base of support for
growing, mass-based forms of pro-fascist
movements from inside the so-called "mainstream
political system." The Padania separatist
movement in Italy is only typical of the
proto-Mussolini form of fascism building up
across Europe today.

Thus, the worsening crisis of the international
financial system, has evoked a sharp, growing,
mass-based political division within society. This
division is led, on the one side, by the viewpoint
expressed by Europe's rising mass-strike ferment,
as echoed by the revival of the AFL- CIO here in
the U.S.A. The opposing tendency is typified by
the reactionary, fascist-tending
"neo-conservatives," such as the "Contract on
America" ferment here in the U.S.A. The first,
looks to the government of the nation-state for its
essential part in organizing solutions. The second,
is committed to undermining and destroying the
existing form of sovereign nation-state, as the
"Contract on America" typifies the revival of the
Nashville spirit of the Confederate States of
America, and President Woodrow Wilson's
revival of the Ku Klux Klan, here in the U.S.A.
The first current demands, that the national
government act, implicitly demanding new
Franklin Delano Roosevelts. The second,
wild-eyed "free trader" current, like anarchistic,
right-wing parodies of Bolsheviks, demands "the
dissolution of the existing nation-state form of

The holocaust now continuing to target millions of
Hutu and other victims, a holocaust directed by
dictator Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, who has
vowed publicly to outdo Adolf Hitler, is a
cohering expression of the new forms of fascism
the present financial crisis is fostering.

Forecasting is not 'predicting'

The most significant feature of my forecasts, is
that they were never presented as "predictions,"
but as a scientific analysis of both the economic
and related political directions in which present
policy-making was sending economies. The
crucial feature of my own work, is that I freed
myself from those methods of statistical
forecasting, which are the common cause of
failure in most honest attempts at forecasting.

Milton Friedman, had caused a few terrible
catastrophes. The competence of an economic
forecaster lies, first of all, in his choice of method.
My own work should not be treated as an
exception to the rule. Therefore, a few summary
points are added to this report, as a guide to
better understanding of the record of success
shown by the accompanying chronicle of my

The "trick" in such forecasting, is to begin by
putting to one side financial and monetary
processes as such, to concentrate, as Leibniz did
in founding economic science, on physical
economy. Treat economic processes in their
respect as an efficient interrelationship between
man and nature. Then, examine the way in which
certain types of financial and monetary policy
regulate the decision-making processes regulating
the economic side of man's interaction with

Finally, as a matter of prefacing the following
chronicle, consider my use of what I named "The
Triple Function" ( Figure 1 ) . For the purpose of
presenting the factors of relative timing in respect
to the currently ongoing series of financial crises, I
asked that attention be focussed upon the
presently operative form of interdependency
among hyperbolic growth of the financial bubble's
nominal values, relative to the increase of
monetary circulation required to sustain that
bubble. I asked that we examine the
interdependency of that financial-monetary
coupling, with the looting of the physical economy
required to support the monetary expansion
needed to support the financial bubble. That
shows, in functional terms, not only why the
present international financial and monetary
system is inevitably doomed; it also shows that
we are already in the vicinity of those parts of the
three curves, at which the present
financial-monetary process is virtually
discontinuous, that the entire system is overripe to
go all the way down, right now. There is very little
time to waste, before taking the necessary
political actions.

On that basis, without requiring any additional
information, I know, with certainty, that the
international financial system, with its attached
leading banks, is already hopelessly bankrupt.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 12:17)
Platinum will find support in the 403.If support is held, 550 is in the
realm of the possibility within the next three weeks with gold at 356-360.After that,IMHO,Gold and Platinum will retrace and make new lows
into September.There will be a worldwide stockmarket blow-off at the same time.Liquidity problems will make the gold stocks go down initially,with
bullion going up.

Spud Master
(Wed Jun 18 1997 12:22)
too many people, too few resources
There are four pending conflicts currently:
1 ) North Korea vs. South Korea
2 ) Mainland China vs. Taiwan
3 ) Iran vs. The West ( proxy Saudis )
4 ) Pakistan vs. India

I expect that just one of them will be taken as an opportunity for the
rest of them to go. I'd guess that China has already told us/bought/assured that in exchange for turning a deaf ear to North Korea's attack, we will turn a deaf ear to an invasion of Taiwan. Otherwise, how will we ( US ) be able to fight a dual war with Iran while we are in Korea? India and Pakistan will of course take adaantage of distracted Powers to fullfill their own particular deathwish.

I doubt any amount of gold selling/manipulation by the CBs or Fed can protect our stock market. Does anyone here think the above conflicts won't happen more or less simultaneously?


(Wed Jun 18 1997 12:50)
Dow utilities
The battle for the soul of the stock market continues on page c3 of the wsj. The three charts currently show a divergence between the utilities and the other two averages. Draw a down trend line across the peaks of the utilities. This trend line goes off the chart and back to 1993 where it tops out at 257. In my opinion if we fail here and take out say 215-220 on the way down the three charts on page c3 will show a large divergence, taking out 208 a radical divergence. We need to take out 230 on the way up for the stock mania to continue. So far its a cliff hanger.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 12:51)
Spud...Please do not overlook the Arab/Isreal confrontation possibilities. It could be the most serious of all ... nuclear /chemical and biological in nature....and perhaps the most imminent and with the greatest potential for US involvement - or - terrorist attacks here.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 12:52)
Lyndon: What was the first big financial blow of 1997?

(Wed Jun 18 1997 13:04)
John Disney: I am sure we will bear with you.
ALL: Looks like XAU broke 100^XAU

(Wed Jun 18 1997 13:05)
As of last night there were 27 % bulls down from 29% the night before

George s. Cole
(Wed Jun 18 1997 13:07)
stocks lead bullion
WW: Looks like the gold stocks are leading bullion down; not visa versa. The stocks lead and bullion follows. This fundamental paradigm of the gold market has not changed

6 pack: You probably can get more info on the TED spread through an internet search engine.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 13:35)
@ Psychological Testing:
Last time I checked the delayed quote on the May Gold Futures ( the near month ) , the low of the day was $340.50. Is this a test? Seems $340.5 is trying to hold. It could be the boys are just putting a little psychological pressure on the weak hands. Maybe!

(Wed Jun 18 1997 13:35)
oh, omnipotent savior Lyndon!
All of the salient points in the "Lyndon LaRouche" post could have been condensed into 90% fewer words. The pertinent subject matter therein has been well-known to most on this forum for quite some time, despite what Lyndon may think. Read the post, and note the number of self-aggrandizing references used. What a WINDBAG!

a prediction
(Wed Jun 18 1997 13:36)
99.85 will be the lowest the xau will get today.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 13:36)
Gold coins anyone, courtesy of Belgium;

(Wed Jun 18 1997 13:38)
TED spread info ( Treasury-EuroDollar spread )

(Wed Jun 18 1997 13:47)
@DFW Airport
But to think that proud, free peoples will meekly give up control of their national economic life; to imagine that intelligent citizens will continue to swallow
the contradictory soothing syrups spooned out by duplicitous diplomats; to lock in stresses that would escalate tensions into conflicts -- that is absurdity
beyond the imagination of playwrights.

The former is a quote from William Safire's essay of June 18 '97
on the economic situation in Europe

I feel the same goes for the US and Canada

(Wed Jun 18 1997 13:54)
Spudalypse ( 12:22 ) I think number 3 is the most imminent although I agree with with Bill D ( 12:51 ) that the Arab-Israel conflict is the most threatening event "out there"...

(Wed Jun 18 1997 14:00)
Spud Master:

You can rule out Pakistan and India going to war. They are controlled by the English secret peace weapon known as: "Cricket."

It is a well known fact that no country that plays cricket has ever declared war on a fellow cricket playing country.

There have been civil wars between cultures where only one part of the culture played cricket and the other did not. Such was the "Boer War" at the turn of the century in Sth Africa. The British threw everything they had at the Boer's.

After the Boers were defeated several of them learned how to play cricket and it has been fairly peaceful ever since.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 14:09)
Apresiction ( 13:36 ) You were WRONG! XAU down 2.43 @ 99.60

(Wed Jun 18 1997 14:09)
ACW : Hooray.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 14:12)
Apresiction= apreDiction in Cape Breton....

John Disney
(Wed Jun 18 1997 14:31)
Hello out there
Anxiously awaiting best english traslation of
japanese word "shibui" = also does this word have
a chinese written equivalent. Reason I ask is that
CONTRARY to large preference for gold in SE asian
countries, Gold Mining Newletter for June ( mining
journal gold service ) reports that China "is fast
becoming an important market for platinum jewellery.
Demand in 1996 is estimated at 75,000 oz". For
comparison European demand is 120,000 oz. US demand
increased from 65,000 oz in 1995 to 90,000 in 1996.
Japanese demand is a stunning 1,500,000 oz.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 14:36)
@XAUdown^XAU XAUnow 99.47@2:30EDT, anymore predictions?

John Disney
(Wed Jun 18 1997 14:44)
To All
Re Belgian coins
You must know that ten years ago news of a coin issue of this type
would have been taken as very bullish - ( I recall a hirohito related
gold coin in the mid 1980's I think ) - It was taken as a NEW demand for
gold. Now it is viewed as another way the poor desparate CB are trying
to relieve themselves of the gold burden. Who says the CB are not going
to replenish stocks from the market ?? .
Suppose the coins are soaked up immediately and the people ask for more - What happens then old bean?? This reminds me of the US gold auctions in the latter 1970s.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 14:46)
ALL.... Well, I guess that solves the puzzle as to which way the break would head. As if there was any doubt.....George S. Cole..... Get ready for the "spike". Soon. Unwinding the short XAU position from last week. Looking to go long XAU calls soon.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 14:59)
Comex report: Gold down 2.70; Silver down 6.7 cents; Platinum down 4.10; and Palladium down down 8.45...XAU down 2.81 @ 99.22...

(Wed Jun 18 1997 15:02)

(Wed Jun 18 1997 15:06)
@for U
By Brian Spoors

LONDON, June 18 ( Reuter ) - News of a Belgian government proposal to sell 26 tonnes of gold a year in the form of commemorative coins impacted gold prices in Europe late on Wednesday, dealers and analysts said.

Gold was hovering around $342.00 per ounce when the news came out and immediately dipped to just above $340.00, its lowest of the day.

Belgium intends to sell 26 tonnes of gold in coin form each year to a total of 133 tonnes to reduce the country's debt. The proposal must be adopted by parliament before it could pass into law.

Belgium owns just under 600 tonnes of gold and sold 203 tonnes from its reserves in March last year.

``It's the timing which has hit the market as much as anything,'' one analyst said, referring to a ``cascade effect'' of bearish news concerning any talk of central bank gold sales.

Last week a study on behalf of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank said central bank gold reserves had very limited benefit and should be sold.

Central banks worldwide hold about 35,000 tonnes of gold. The impact of sales as envisaged in the study would be to reduce the gold price from a nominal $350 to $309 dollars, it said.

The gold price has been subdued all year under the threat of central banks especially in Europe selling gold to bring finances into line with Maastricht Treaty criteria on entry to European Monetary Union due in 1999.

Last month Germany, hitherto a pillar of support for gold as a reserve asset, got into a public wrangle between the ministry of finance and the Bundesbank over revaluing gold reserves and using the windfall profit to help the country meet EMU criteria.

In March Switzerland, another staunch supporter of gold, also called for its gold reserves to be revalued.

The Swiss government also proposed selling what was estimated to be about 40 tonnes of gold a year for 10 years to establish a humanitarian fund to help survivors of the Holocaust and other tragedies.

In January this year the Netherlands announced it had sold 300 tonnes of gold from its reserves.

Last year the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) agreed to sell up to five million ounces of gold in order to boost its fund for supporting the world's poorest countries.

Even although the sales would only happen if the money could not be raised by other means and would not begin until the next centrury, the psychological impact on the gold market was profound.

According to gold industry market research group Gold Fields Mineral Services net central bank gold sales last year were 239 tonnes against an average net disposal over the past 10 years of 213 tonnes.

``The fear of central banks sales is much more significant than the substance,'' an analyst said after the Belgium announcement.

Beglium announced it sold 175 tonnes in April 1995 ``to another central bank'' . In June 1992 it sold 202 tonnes to bring its gold reserves into proportion with its neighbours and in March 1989 127 tonnes of the yellow metal.

13:26 06-18-97

(Wed Jun 18 1997 15:08)
XAU down 3.21 @98.82

(Wed Jun 18 1997 15:17)
predictions for xau and stock market
A prediction@xau: looks like one more prediction "99.85 will be the
lowest the xau will get today" going wrong. So far todays low was
already at 99.22.

Its all in money flow. Until money turns away from High Tech vaporware
all predictions are mostly wishful thinking. OTOH the change should not
be far away. Just a few news from "vaporware" market:
Oracle Corp shares fell as much as 6.1 percent Wednesday after the
software company's earnings failed to match Wall Street's more
optimistic forecasts.

Oracle, the world's second-biggest software company, said its fiscal
fourth quarter earnings rose 35 percent from a year earlier, to $359.9
million, or $0.54 a share. That matched Wall Street's consensus
forecast, according to First Call, but fell short of some investors'
Analysts cautioned that the technology sector, which has run up in the
past month, may face greater difficulties in the weeks ahead.

technology upgrade spending may be slowing as companies re-direct 1998
capital spending to remedy Year 2000 software glitches. A correction of
10 to 15 percent may lay ahead this summer as investor awareness of the
issue takes hold.

Hmm,  company earning rose by 35% but thats not enough for investors 
Somebody please tell me that the current stock market value is based on
any realistic foundation.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 15:19)
Experts see $10 billion April trade gap

They also said that $1.09 billion of gold ( approx 3.2
million ounces ) was shipped out in March 97? How can
this be, when US annual production is roughly 12 million

(Wed Jun 18 1997 15:20)
John Disney: Broker has no idea about BLYDY or DROOY or Buffels ( ?who? ) . However in current action BLYDY is taking a c**p down to 1.93 from 2.25 yesterday and 2.4 day before on heavy volume. In ADRs of course. I only had me toe in and yanked that when the water got cold an Ol' Bess is back on the gun rack. Curious now about all those other colder feet.

George S. Cole
(Wed Jun 18 1997 15:23)
gold bear
This gold bear will perist until the financial markets head south in a big way and new investment paradigms develop. Upside stock blowoff = downside gold washout. When investor demand for gold takes off, the CBs will be irrelevant. Until then, the bulls will continue to get their heads handed to them.

Bob A
(Wed Jun 18 1997 15:39)
In my opinion when the stk. mkt. tanks gold will do nothing or drop. I don't see why any stk investor would switch to gold or gold stks. Todays gold action is very neg. in my view. I think 325 to 330 is not far away.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 15:43)
@server down
It is quite scary to think how much of our lives are tied to the internet and the direction we are being "led" ( BG & crew ) . My server was down for almost 48 hours. I was perturbed and scared at the same time. My link to the world was severed for a day and a half. I rely, now and more so in the future, on the net to bring me a stable and healthy income. My provider blamed Sprint. Sprint had no answers... The blame really doesn't matter. One fact ( or question ) does remain as we go, merrrily and with unbridled passion, into the future: I hope BILL - G. that is - will be R&Ding the heck out of a GIGANTIC backup/redundant system. Or minor disasters could ensue...

We as investors and speculators can appreciate this and know that we must be diversified in all aspects of our lives.

Diversification... moderation... I just like the way that rolls off the tongue.

Wasn't it Aristotle's Golden Rule - Moderation. I love that old guy.



(Wed Jun 18 1997 15:48)
TED spread
panda June 18 @ 13:38 Thanks for the information, it appears to be
what I am looking for. George S. Cole : Thanks also.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 15:55)
Bob A: Where will the money go ( except of turning paper into ashes ) ?
You can not have a market crash without money trying to exit the market.
Bob, if you have any idea where itll go let me know - I would like to
be there first.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 16:10)
Glenn ( 20:15 6/17 ) Good call on DOW!...XAU down 2.71 @ 99.32

(Wed Jun 18 1997 16:14)
@Mike Sheller 6/17 06:39
Thanks for the nice welcome. Excellent post! I printed it out and stuck it on the board. I concur with everything ( although I am, humbly speaking, not an Astologer ) . I do find it fascinating, though, the science/art. I would like to add on the same subject in my limited understanding. You did discuss Elliot wave with Octaves in nature. It can also be likened to the mathmetician/architect Fibonacci. His calculations follow nature also - Retracements,oscillation, sound waves,. In nature and metaphysics this can relate to opposites as well. Cold-hot, wet-dry, good-bad.. the yin/yang thing.

It all makes you want to go Hmmmmmmmmmm...

Mike, you are good as GOLD ( or silver ) in my book! Keep on it! Perhaps you can recommend some good reading?...

Anyway, I think I'll go meditate now - but not before one last post.



(Wed Jun 18 1997 16:15)
JOHN DISNEY -- re SHUIBUI character see

(Wed Jun 18 1997 16:19)
@ Looking Through The Ruins:
Well until 98 is taking out, the Elliott Wave A-B-C correction ending June 4th is still holding. If that breaks, then we have several more weeks of waiting. Maybe the XAU just has to close that gap at 96-97.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 16:22)
JOHN DISNEY -- re SHIBUI: the need for solitude, acceptance of all things, and quest for enlightenment.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 16:30)

LSteve ( 10:29 ) About nazi gold, PBS zeroed-in on that
terrible time in world history at the behest of the
Credit Moguls; to place the proverbial stake into the
heart of gold, the "Dracula" that keeps them from
completing their goal of world domination. Every
government is controlled by these monsters. I Wonder who
the real blood suckers really are? It is so obvious,
that even a blind man can see it.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 16:34)
All..... Have said this before and will again.....IMHO for a stock market decline to have real effect on the price of gold, gold will have had to already bottomed and started up when the DOW begins its' decline. If gold has started up and has caught the eye of investors, there will be great clamor to get out of a loosing investment and into one making money. If the attitude toward gold is as it is now when the decline starts, it will not be positive for gold. What we want to see is gold to bottom and begin a rally while the DOW is still going up or flat. They run up together for a while, the let the DOW begin to decline. Again, IMHO...

(Wed Jun 18 1997 16:49)
IMHO the precious metals are still a good buy. A better buy, if I could find the ticker symbol for JCI Limited.
But enough of that. Somewhere under the morass of paper and electrons that constitute our global economy lie the fundamental commodoties of our existence. Someday, somehow, will there not arise a longing for things tangible and real? Hey, US$5467.20 per pound is a lot to pay for something that is "worthless", but somebody is paying it today, aren't they?

(Wed Jun 18 1997 16:51)
@...waiting for post Monsoon season to lift gold demand
It's fundamental my 'Dear Watson'...

(Wed Jun 18 1997 16:57)
@...whatever happened to that theory about whites leading yellow ?
If I recall correctly, there were a few pundits writing about that 'old saw' theory about whites leading the yellow metal. Anyone care to shed light on this topic ?

(Wed Jun 18 1997 17:10)
Spud Master: I'm real concerned about it. I honestly don't know how the world can dodge all those bullets. It seems fairly likely to me that the balloon will go up in at least one of them. We can't forget, of course, that Hong Kong *may* be the spark that sets off the powder keg. The PRC will almost certainly crack down on the several hundred thousand libertarians running around in that great city. The West will not be pleased and there will be plenty of resistance within HK itself, leading to ever greater repression. It'll be a real pressure cooker, if you ask me. And if things get hot and peppery enough, I expect China to move against Taiwan in what will be the ultimate act of defiance and belligerence.

If that happens, I think that we can expect that Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, and, perhaps, Syria, will recognize the opportunity that's being presented to them: The possibility of involving the US in a multifront, non-nuclear conflict that she is ill-prepared for after years of military downsizing at the hands of our ithyphallic Boy-President ( incidentally, one of the rumors about that "distinguishing mark" Paula Jones saw, identifies it as a penile tattoo of a bald eagle -- and a recent one at that since Jennifer Flowers said last week that she doesn't recall seeing anything like it in her ten-year affair with him ) . We do not have the military that we had in 1990. And White House leadership is nothing short of a joke.

That's a worst case scenario, of course. But it's my two cents worth, thanks to inflation.

North Korea is ready for a final battle with the United States and South Korea if they seriously want a showdown.
-- A North Korean military spokesman, Wednesday, 6/18/97

At Group L, Stoffel oversees six first-rate programmers, a managerial challenge roughly comparable to herding cats.
-- The Washington Post Magazine, June 9, 1985

You couldn't even prove the White House staff sane beyond a reasonable doubt.
-- Ed Meese, on the Hinckley verdict

(Wed Jun 18 1997 17:37)
@...Hong Kong to become Plato's republic...
...except that the philosphers are Red and the administrators are Rich investors on the take. How else do you reconcile the calm that prevails amoung the Rich HK capitalist class ?

(Wed Jun 18 1997 18:01)
Is Hong Kong Jittery?
Bob: Ostriches and sleepwalkers. I'm not even sure that there are that many people in Hong Kong who are completely sanguine about this handover. There is an interesting editorial by Suzanne Fields in today's Washington Times about the "palpable" apprehension there. It's in the Opinion section. Take a look at it and tell me what you think of it.

George S. Cole
(Wed Jun 18 1997 18:41)
stocks and gold
nailz; The next gold bull will not be triggered by a sudden burst of public demand. The public will only come after an uptrend is firmly established. Your preferred scenario of bullion starting up before stock market tanks would indeed be the best one for gold investors.

But the move could also start after stocks have moved south in a big way. All depends on whether the smart money sees the next dip in stocks as merely another brief 10% correction or the start of something much bigger.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 18:45)
Venerable veteran analyst sees bullish signals on Gold Indicators. Also, his charts paint positive platinum picture. He likes Stillwater, N.A. Palladium & Franco-Nevada. RELOAD at Editorials page:

George S. Cole
(Wed Jun 18 1997 18:53)
selling climax?
Bullion already down another 30 cents. Gold stock volume picked up today, but still is not big enough for a selling climax. Looks like we are going to get one soon though. Early next week, perhaps.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 19:11)
@New England
Any prick in the stk mkt must coincide from now on ( as evidenced today ) with bond strength and definitely gold weakness ( note the normal last minute raid today ) . Message put stk money and fear of losing into bonds ( we have a trillion to rollover in 1998 ) . Gold down when mkt down so no safe haven status. Obvious when you have 1 trillion to roll not to mention other debtors rollovers the last thing you want is gold to rise because you need every last penny. If gold starts to rise above its 100 day moving average and gain any sponsorship then financials are toast if even a little capital hesitates. Conversely if even a little capital goes to gold the horse gets out of the barn and financials become toast. Again all must keep going to financials especially with a 1 trillion dollar rollover and not even a scintilla of capital can go into gold and thus it catapults to cause even a litrtle ques re capital flows into financials which could start a snowball crash. CONFIDENCE UBER ALLES!!!!! Heil Merrill!!!

(Wed Jun 18 1997 19:11)
I'm not a bad guy!

Bill Buckler
(Wed Jun 18 1997 19:15)
Gold bottom? - Are you Nuts!?
Fascinating response to my posting of bottom in $A Gold
price, which I posted to several of the investment
newgroups as well. Almost universal reaction was along
the lines of "Gold hasn't bottomed, you idiot! Take
a look at any Gold chart"

True - *in $US terms* - it hasn't. But then, of course,
I never said it had. The point was that, technically,
it *has* bottomed in $A terms and historically, Gold
bottoms in $A terms have always preceded, by an indeterminate
amount of time, Gold bottoms in $US terms.

With $US Gold down $2.70 overnight, my e-mail
today should be *really* juicy. Of course, there is
a G-7 meeting coming up in Denver this weekend. And we
are getting close to the date of the FOMC meeting.
And then there is the Hong Kong handover.

George Cole may well be right in predicting a final
downside "spike" for $US Gold. Gold has only been below
$US 340 twice this year. BTW, the article on the
TED spread he mentioned in his posting ( June 18: 9:35 ) was
excellent. All Kitcoites should check it out.

I am going to be following the developments on $A/$US
Gold at my website. I have just posted an update to
the June 16 chart taking in the overnight fall in $US
Gold and showing its effect on the $A price.

The $A is a "Dollar Block" currency and, at last measurement,
the sixth most traded currency in the world. $A Gold
( and Aussie Gold stocks ) gave a terrific "advance warning"
both in 1986 and in 1993. Right now, $A Gold has
popped up but Aussie Gold stocks are languishing.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 19:17)
@just kidding
POL POT...I thought was Clinton's nickname..oh, that's right, he said he
didn't inhale!

(Wed Jun 18 1997 19:17)
@just kidding
POL POT...I thought was Clinton's nickname..oh, that's right, he said he
didn't inhale!

Bill Buckler
(Wed Jun 18 1997 19:25)
Gold Bottom? Are You Nuts?!
Addendum to 19:15 post. The response was from the newsgroups - NOT from you ladies and gentlemen here at Kitco.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 19:29)
WDL: Bubba does inhale!

(Wed Jun 18 1997 19:31)
Hi Pol!

(Wed Jun 18 1997 19:33)
@More doom and Gloom
Kitco showing Gold down 1.30 at 339.10 ! It seems every day now there
are more news items to whip up the bearish sentiment ( Belgium and Switzerland today ) . Well if the CB's are going to sell then let's get it over with. More damage being done now with the uncertainty than
if they just acted.
Gold miners will be the biggest losers in all of this as the price weakens and more mines become unprofitable and are shut down.
Looks like the 340. mark is being broken now and we will see where the next support level is. $325 ?
Hard to beleive.........

(Wed Jun 18 1997 19:36)
@New England
Ron: Dont expect anything but disdain and excuses for your HK Liberaterian friends from the US. Our Govt needs ChiCom money to prevent the bond mkt/financial meltdown ( just ask John Huang ) . I just wish you would stop feeling sorry for people who want to disrupt Chinese Society and damage our Insiders relationship with The Peoples Republic of China. You sir are a traitor. Hey so what if the Senate passed a ( important word but good political cover ) non binding resolution for Clinton to sanction China for advanced missle sales to Iran. Admin just said, in response, that they are not destabalizing.However, THE CHINESE SALES OF US BONDS AND PUCHASE OF GOLD SURELY WOULD. Why was greenspan over there a few weeks ago HMM. I am just glad our govt condemns Chinese human rights violations just like say Cuba.HAHA. Castro needs to make some foreign exchange to buy US Treasuries and then he can kill or torture anyone he likes and will undoubtedly be a media darling. Fidel just invest in OEX calls with the nat'l treasury and this position may be soon achieved. Fidel, get with the program!!!

(Wed Jun 18 1997 19:39)
Hold on tight! Looks like a test coming! ( Uh Oh! Don't think we're going to get away with it this time! ) Here's the chart for the Yellow stuff, eeeehhhhhhhhhhh............. Long Bond is doing its 'thing' quite nicely though. I know, small consolation... BBL....

(Wed Jun 18 1997 19:41)
Give me back my Heisman Trophy!

(Wed Jun 18 1997 19:48)

(Wed Jun 18 1997 19:54)
Gold looked as bad on the Floor today as one can expect by looking at the charts. Once we broke 341.70 there were no buyers. Actually once we broke 343.00 in Aug you could tell we were going down. I would think we are going to close down tomorrow. How low I'm not sure, maybe somethin like $1.00 - $2.00 which would be 339.0 to 340 ( Aug ) ??

Mike Sheller
(Wed Jun 18 1997 20:01)
EB get the Heebie Jeebies
EB: All things in Moderation was the catchphrase of Pythagoras. At least it allows us ALL things, as long as they are in moderation! Aristotle was no slouch either. He also knew how to play the gold/platinum spread. Good reading? Man, that's tough, but you couldn't do much better than going to the source: Madame Helena Petrovna Blavatsky and her Magnum Opus "THE SECRET DOCTRINE." Heavy, turgid, and fabulous...It's a big mother of a book, but it is a monster. Also, if you think you can take the real thing, try "Thinking and Destiny" by Harold Percival. If you stay sane, you will learn more than could ever be expressed here in cyberspace. If you wig out, don't come crying to me. Appreciate your interest.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 20:01)
Well-reputed Seer asserts gold stocks are as cheap TODAY relative to the market as they were in the early 1970s. See Coles Market Insights - Click RELOAD:

Waite Worden
(Wed Jun 18 1997 20:08)
To John Disney:
Shibui has a number of definitions; all have konji -Chinese character assocations - which I can't give you here. I can give you the definitions: astringent; rough; rough wine. 2. quiet; tasty; tastful; have a quite taste; a quiet ( tasteful ) pattern; sing in a well-trained voice; a well-placed hit. 3. glum; sullen; sulky; look sullen ( glum ) ; be grim-faced. 4. tight; stingy.

I hope this helps.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Jun 18 1997 20:09)
Last fella named Lyndon was NO friend o' mine
LYNDON LAROUCHE, and POL POT: Welcome to Kitco. It's so nice to have someone who ran for U.S. President several times, and someone else who was a de facto Presidente in his own right. So what's up, Pol? The nasty liberal revisionists in Cambodia got a hair up their assets over you and are lookin' to skin you alive? So you lam it to Kitco where the goldbugs won't notice so long as you hype the shiny yello? Just behave, buddy, and refrain from slaying millions of us, and maybe we'll let you settle in as a regular like the rest of the gang. After a stormy start, as per Kitco usual.. So what do you think of the XAU?

(Wed Jun 18 1997 20:16)
Did anyone notice that Lyndon LaRouche has a writing style and is wordy -- just like a certain frequent poster on Litco????

(Wed Jun 18 1997 20:21)
Hi Mike and thanks for the welcome! I promise not to slay any goldbugs or create any other dirty deeds! RE XAU: Well, we didn't close at the low of the day so it could have been worse. Haven't I seen YOU somewhere before?

(Wed Jun 18 1997 20:24)
@ John Disney
John -- Regarding your 3:45 posting: You state that only the fools are lending the world governments. Yet, you also state that you don't believe the present global financial system will collapse. These leads to the next logical questions:

1 ) Will the fools keep lending to world governments -- even in light of the fact that government interest payments are rapidly zeroing in on total tax receipts?

2 ) If fools stop lending to world governments, the system WILL collapse.

I see no other alternatives, except these two cases.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 20:26)
@ pardon my English
I need to re-read my postings before I click. I also miss the spell-checker.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Jun 18 1997 20:27)
I dunno
PUETZ ( I assume it's YOU Steve ) : I don't know about "Litco" but if you ask me, that COULD have been Lyndon LaRouche. I've watched enuf of his political campaignfomercials to sort of recognize his style and verbal cadence. If that wasn;t him, it was a really great cyber-mimic. The Rich Little of chat lines. Hey, who knows? Kitco is where the elite meet & greet. No?

(Wed Jun 18 1997 20:28)
For all you STOCK MARKET BEARS "out there" a good friend of mine has a site you would enjoy reading...It's called "The Skeptical Investor"...
now let's see if I can type the address without screwing it up....

(Wed Jun 18 1997 20:37)
@ big deflation
It seems, the big news these days is the emergence of deflation. PPI prices have been down 5 months in a row -- and they are certain to decline again in June. Virtually all commoditions have taken big falls this month. The CRB Index is down sharply. Retail sales have dropped three months in a row. Housing starts are down 3 months in a row. It appears that the US is either already in recession, or on the verge of one. Corporate earnings reports are now starting to come out consistently on the low side of Street estimates. The stock market may soon wake up to this fact. When it does, the deflationary process will become even stronger. The stock market "wealth effect" will go in reverse.

George Cole: I agree with you. Stocks could easily start down first, then gold could shoot up later. Initially, investors may interpret the commodity and asset deflation as bearish for gold. But once the deflation become powerful enough, scared investors will run into the metals as part of a "flight to quality." Investors should buy gold and silver coins for the long run. So what if gold dips to $325 in the mean time? The fact that in the next few years it may have the same purchasing power as $20,000 does today is all the reason in the world to own it now -- and not worry about picking the exact bottom.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Jun 18 1997 20:38)
Astrological Investor likes Skeptical Investor
TED: I like your friends.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 20:43)
Thanks Mike! Max is a good man even if he is a "Bloody Brit"....

(Wed Jun 18 1997 20:54)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Spot gold now at 339.20 in Sydney. Very difficult to believe that it would only go to 309 if the CBs sold everything as advocated in that Fed/MIT paper released earlier this month. It'll be tempting, if this price holds, to add to my position tomorrow.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 21:02)
EBN Gold down a nickle and Silver down a cent...Big I'm even startin to sound like a Canuck...and I only been here five years!...
Came within hours of movin here ( Canada ) 26 years ago but as they say..better late than never...What a WEIRD journey this old life is but where the hell is it takin mois...

(Wed Jun 18 1997 21:09)

You YANKS are always welcome in the PROMISED LAND ,just PAY the TAXES and enjoy the fruits of your labour with what little you have left.

Geoff s

(Wed Jun 18 1997 21:12)
In the wee hours weeks ago we received an anonymous email which talked about "WAR IN KOREA." It's impact on GOLD could be impressive. See ANONYMOUS GURU:

(Wed Jun 18 1997 21:18)
John Disney: Yet more shibui! From and David S Roberts @
Shibui in this context means kind of sober,austere or understated. Nottoo gaudy or flashy. Older Japanese people don't like to show-off, andthis is often reflected in their tastes.Especially middle-aged women,who would be the most likely customers for expensive jewelry, wouldconsider it improper to dress to young by wearing something too gaudylike large pieces of yellow gold. Platinum satisfies this desire to hold back from showing off, and lets the owner feel something like a
sophisticated person, since it is actually quite valuable.For similar
reasons, women of this age prefer clothing from expensive, conservative

I hope it helps.

David Roberts

(Wed Jun 18 1997 21:40)
Geoff: Will do bro....EBN GOLd down .30 and Silver down a measly cent...
What's a penny these days anyway....can't even buy a damn gum-ball...

(Wed Jun 18 1997 21:54)
@ Central Bank gold PURCHASES
With all the talk about CB gold sales, few have talked about their purchases. In today's Gold Newsletter, Jim Blanchard says China has increased their gold reserves from 400 tonnes a few years ago to somewhere between 1000-and-1400 tonnes today. When China and Honk Kong merge on July 1, China will hold $170 billion in currency reserves. If it then brings its % of gold in that reserve mixture up to Western standards, China will have to buy more than 1 years supply of mined gold. That's a bullish scenario for gold.

Blanchard also reports that Hedge Funds have now accumulated a physical short-position of 500 tonnes of gold -- about 1/4 year's supply of mined gold. Hedge funds are normally trend followers. When the gold trend does finally turn up, this will create a massive short-covering rally.

Don't worry about figuring out the exact bottom in gold and silver. Buy now while the gettin' good.

Jerry Rubin
(Wed Jun 18 1997 21:57)
Bob Rubin: Howdy Mr.Spinmaster,spin me a good one about your BOSS! You can do it, Mr.Slick~~~~~~~

(Wed Jun 18 1997 22:07)
Just one tonight, tempers are running too hot for me...
Its looking more like the Swiss will sell gold in 97 and I guess the verdict is in on Belgium. I wouldnt want to be a buyer until a bottom is found. If it breaks through $335, well see $330. Auric - Remember my offer? $335 half a dozen times before $400 once? My $348 short is looking pretty good now, but I wont cover yet, theres gold in them thar depths. Silver Bolls, stos, and RSI say wait for retest of 4.58. I still expect a run to 5.00, but there is an outside chance we could see the 40s first. I wont sell it here, I wont buy it here. Saw 7.5 cents down in LA after the NY close. Looked like a single order that was bought back up in ten minutes. Dont give up on platinum, before the year is out we should see $500 +. I still expect a lot of volatility here, but anywhere near $400 is a good buy for platinum. Especially if ( like me ) you could use some cost average of $430 - $440 platinum. As for palladium, I gave it up a couple weeks ago and havent looked back. Hearken back to my first post to the august group predicting that "the Russians to announce resumption of palladium shipments next week with barely enough to under satisfy current demand." I also call for $275 before the month is out. The month isnt over yet, but $275 is looking more like a delusion than anything else. Mike Sheller, was that you who said palladium will top out at $240? Im 90% in agreement now. If so - good call. Question to all. What do you think would happen if Russian shipments prove to not meet demand? The trip may not be over, but Ill stick to platinum. A palladium trade these days has more potential for punishment than Im willing to risk. As for gold. a rally above $350 anytime this year is looking more and more unlikely.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 22:12)
@bug-bit, sun-burnt and gold-down
I get back from a camp out and look what I find! Everybody buy some more gold.

Puetz: Your steadfast bullishness about the metals is encouraging. I came close to selling out twice today. This gold market is gruelling. Both times I looked at my time frame and re-read some posts here and at Vronsky's and held fast. I have a knack for selling at bottoms, so we must be close.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 22:18)
Canadian Precious Metals Mining Stocks Expert reviews most promising PURE SILVER PLAYS & others. See Goldbugs Weekly Comment - Click RELOAD at Gold Digest page:

(Wed Jun 18 1997 22:19)
RJ: From my viewpoint, a the first leg of a gigantic gold bull market looks all-but-certain before the end of October. Once $350 is penetrated to the upside, a massive short-covering rally will take over pushing the yellow metal to $500 rather quickly in a platinum-stlye squeeze. ( See my postings earlier tonight. ) Buy gold now, while it's cheap. Don't wait until the buying panic starts.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 22:21)
@ Speed
Speed: Thanks for the valuable sentiment indicators!!!

(Wed Jun 18 1997 22:41)
Steve Puetz -- Do you think we will be testing the 1993 lows very soon? Something like $328 - $330 spot gold? Most of the PM stocks are pretty close to their '93 lows, it wouldn't take much to push them over now. ECO was downgraded today by Smith Barney along with Amax gold. Sentiment is really negative! Does anyone want to hazard a guess as to when a climactic selling session will occur? It has to be coming soon.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Jun 18 1997 22:45)
240 or fight
RJ: Yes, Twas me who told QT on, I think, May 22, I saw a 240 max for Palladium if it got thru 200. ( It was up against initial resistance at 173 at the time, if I recall - sort of a congestion if you will ) I did that off the price chart - saw mucho resistance in the cylinder at 240. HOWEVER...I did NOT expect the run to happen so quickly ( as though I'll EVER learn about the metal moves ) . I was also looking at the horoscope of North American Palladium for QT. It indicated action ahead, so I was figuring that 240 top to come in later than it did. This stock tends to respond to metal rallies in general, and not necessarily Palladium in particular. It didn't do much on the Palladium rally. I don't think they really mine much and besides, this was a very specific supply problem and not a fundamental market shift. Or would you say I'm off base there?

(Wed Jun 18 1997 22:48)
To All -- One question that I have is this. How available is the physical metal ( gold, platinum, silver ) as coin or bar at the spot prices quoted? I know most bullion coin typically has about a four percent premium to the spot price. The question remains; What is the availability of the physicals? Has anyone been told that they have to wait for X number of days or weeks for delivery?

(Wed Jun 18 1997 22:49)
I know I said only one tonight, but......
Steve Puetz - Read your stuff at Gold eagle. Your arguments are good. I think I have a better picture of where you are coming from. Remember one thing, I don't care which way gold goes, as long as it, and the others, go. If there is a rally to be had at the expense of "massive shorts" why did it not come 3 1/2 months ago when gold topped $364? It stayed above $350 for several days, silver moved more than 60 cents, platinum toped $400. If the impetus to drive gold up exists, why did the February rally fail? There was a lot of short covering then but there was no hesitation to lay in new shorts. I enjoyed your newsletter.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Jun 18 1997 22:53)
Not so Fast
STEVE: October will be entering the height of renwed pressure on gold astrologically. The same aspect ( Uranus square NYSE Venus ) that has put gold down this past winter & spring will retrograde over the same degree and bring one more final weak spell. I'm looking for a minor rally in the weeks ahead, with silver strongest, but the big bull wont begin til the turn of the new year as Uranus finally lifts off. I realize this may be mumbo jumbo to most, but NYSE Venus has proven itself as THE gold indicator in the NYSE horoscope for the past 200 years. And the zodiacal degree of that planet in the NYSE chart, 5.6 degrees Taurus, has responded to major aspects from the outer planets back to the War of the Roses!

(Wed Jun 18 1997 22:53)
RJ -- I agree with you that this PGM thing is not done yet. The Russians are a big question here. After all, they didn't deliver for six months because of a paperwork snafu? Even they aren't that bad, especially when it comes to their own pockets and the money they put in them. :- ) )

(Wed Jun 18 1997 22:56)
RJ: Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the short-covering rally won't begin until gold moves above the $364 area. But when it begins, Watch Out!!!

Mike Sheller
(Wed Jun 18 1997 22:56)
RJ: Kitco is like potato CAN'T just do ONE.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:02)
PANDA.....I do not trade platinum to any great degree.....I do, however trade gold and silver...As to your question on availability, it depends on the form you want it in. If you are willing to take the available form, the supply in gold and silver is immediate. For gold you might have to take foreign coins, bars or Eagles....Maybe even scrap...But they are there with plenty of sellers....On silver, you might find 1 oz. or 100 oz. or even the ugly poured 1000 bars or you might have to buy bags of 90....I even have a large bag of several hundred oz. of shot.... But it is there....All you can pay for. Sometimes there are temporary shortages in a particular item, but in general, you can have physicals in all you can afford.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:03)
Mike Sheller (240 or fight)
Palladium, yes. A very specific supply problem, but I am still unwilling to concede the supply problem is over. As I said B4, this entire palladium run has been engineered by the Russians. When they were long, they couldn't get their act together, when they were short, all was peachy. Again I ask, what would happen if the Russians shipped, but not enough? With the fear of future shipments gone, would the true supply/demand picture emerge? More importantly, I don't think there is enough platinum to go around until we get higher prices. Demand was up 7% last year, production is not keeping up. Forget Johnson Matthey platinum reports, their numbers have been off for at least three years that I can tell, although why they would misreport is a wonder.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:03)
@ short-term gold prospects
Panda: I don't feel very comfortable making short-term predictions. The deflationary trend for the ENTIRE economy bothers me. It could have a negative impact on gold short-term. I suppose $330 or even something as low as $280 is possible short-term. But in the long-term view, these will be minor price swings. Why worry if gold has already hit bottom, has $10 more down, or $50 more down, when the upside is so huge??

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:03)
Things are really slow tonight, a good sentiment indicator? Well, good night all. Just remember, at some point, someone will err. That's all it will take. Things are too closely linked through technology. A silly little breakdown somewhere is all that is needed for the unthinkable to happen. I don't know what it could be, but I remember a story last year about an errant keyboard entry in to a computer that controlled a national paging service. The poor operator managed to shut down service to half the country and kept the beepers going in the other half with false messages! Talk about having a bad day! :- ) )

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:06)
Puetz - $365 then....

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:07)
nailz -- Thanks. I was just curious as to what we were seeing here. Was this a paper mirage? In other words, physical supplies are tight but 'paper' prices are low because there's so much paper. Well, so much for that... Really gone now!

Mike Sheller
(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:09)
Nite All. Hope the markets go YOUR way tomorrow...whichever way that might be.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:09)
Mike Sheller: Awhile back you had posted an astrological view that silver would have a decent rally in July to August time frame. Has recent market action changed that view or do the stars still stand pat?

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:12)
ALL: Consider this May 16th quote from Reuters in Tokyo" A vetern Japanese legislator says the government should boost its holdings in gold, citing the risk of keeping a large proportion of the country's external reserves in US Dollars. 'Many people here are forgetting what gold holdings mean for a country.' Masaaki Nakayama, a member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, told Reuters in a recent interview. 'When the global monetary structure changes drastically, it's risky to depend heavily on the US Dollar. Holding more gold should be considered.' Nakayama said."

What's all this talk on Kitco about CB gold sales? Sounds like you're biting on the bearish-bait being supplied by the financial media. It's been rummored that every time a European central bank has sold gold in the past 5 years, an Asian central bank has eagerly bought it up. That's why gold prices haven't broken very hard when the Europeans sell.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:15)
One more for the Roebear
ROEBEAR: I am using the Saturn conjunction with NYSE Moon ( significator of silver ) . Saturn is right there, about a half degree away. Will be exact in July. I must say there should be some action now, but with these slower moving outer planets effects sometimes lag. I have not been heartened much by market action recently, but I'll wait til August before I close the books on this call. Last time Saturn conjuncted NYSE Moon ( '68 ) Tet and domestic riots broke loose, stox topped and silver doubled. Now I really have to get some ZZZ's!

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:18)
Kitco has ridges
Panda - Nice to find someone who hasn't lowered the PGM flag yet. Indeed the Russians are far more savvy than we capitalists will admit. Maybe they cant build a decent car, and their space station is filling the solar system with fresh oxygen, but they are shrewd. They convinced us to spend trillions fighting a cold war that they never had the capacity to win. Without the nukes, Russia is a third world nation, albeit with massive natural resources, but the Russians themselves are very smart. Witness the last six weeks in palladium. Now, if I may, Mike S, I will brush the crumbs off my shirt, and bid all, Adieu.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:19)

North American Palladium ( PDLCF ) derives something like 75% of their revenue from sales of Pa.

The story in Pa is far from over. I read an article today in which an employee of a Japanese trade house was interviewed. The employee had recently had discussions with representitives from Tiger Fund who were trying to sell the Japanese long term Pa contracts. The Tiger Fund reps were insistent that Russia will be an unreliable seller and they won't be able to deliver large quantity from inventory. The Japanese were unimpressed and chose not to enter into contracts, and to rely instead upon the Russian deliveries. Knowing a little about Tiger Fund, I believe that it would be extraordinarily unlikely for them to say something such as this unless they really believed it to be true. To some extent I am talking my own book as we still own about 20% of our initial Pa position. However, should Pa continue to slide here, say another $10 basis Sept. we will in all likelyhood reload in a big way. There is still huge potential for a massive squeeze in the Sept. contract. If Tiger has good info as to Russian stockpiles, my guess is that they will use this decline to buy up another load. If it is true that the Russians can't deliver in size, the next time up will be extraordinary. Tiger will wait until the commercials are begging and extract the maximum amount of pain. Don't lose sight of the number one fundamental in this market. If Tiger wants to buy all the Pa in the world they have ample capital to do so.

P.S. Last I looked there were all of 30,000 ounces in Comex warehouses against something like 700,000 ounces in open contracts.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:20)
Most at Kitco are bearish on gold. Could this be a contrary indicator?
Remember, "ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!" Why do I have the feeling that something BIG is about to happen?

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:26)
Steve Puetz: In years to come you will be known as the Florence Nitengale of Kitco, having nursed so many wounded goldbugs back to health and prosperity in their time of need. Sorry about the sex change ( :- ) ) seriously, keep up the good work. Between RJ and you and everyone there is the chance of seeing the next paradigm shift before it's too late.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:26)
GENE: It will begin soon.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:27)

Could you expand a little with regards to your ideas about deflation? Everything that I look at from an economic statistical viewpoint is pointing exactly in the opposite direction.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:27)
EBN Gold down .20 and Silver down a cent...Good night too Tarnished!

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:29)
On Tuesday my gold stock went up a cent ( $0.08 to $0.09 ) and gold was stable at 342ish. Gold has dropped to 338.9, and my stock only went down $0.001. Does that tell you what people are thinking of this last gold drop!!!!! Just wait folks, just wait... something is in the wind!

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:34)
Good night Mike Sheller and thanks. I'm dusting off my sky charts and telescope!

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:37)
GENE....I beg to differ....Most at KITCO are not bearish on the metals..I think a majority believe that a short term downtrend is happening right now, however that does not mean most are bearish. It means most realize that gold is still in a bear market for now, however I think most a very bullish on the intermediate and long term trend in the metals...Most believe the current trend to be short-lived...weeks or months...Any commodity will be pushed down as far as the markets will allow, as they will at some point be pushed upwards as far as the markets will allow...My work is a little more bearish than most....I see gold down to $325-$319... ( Yes I know that breaks trend lines and yes I know that looks bearish on the charts, etc ) ...But I would also say to all....Establish your physical position NOW if you have not already done so...$20US will look like pocket change at some point ( when and where are the variables ) ..Happy trading.....

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:49)
Me too
Nailz - Astute assessment. As bearish as I speak, I do speak for the short term - months. In the next couple years, I expect a big move up.

(Wed Jun 18 1997 23:53)
GENE and ALL.... We have everything in place for a move in the metals except a trading range with volitility....Gold, let's say fairly volitile between US 335 and 355....Silver between US $4.10-4.65. Back and forth. Back and forth....For weeks !!!!! I did very well in 1978-79 playing silver from $4.80-$5.20 that carried on for months !!!! Just give us volitility and shortly something will break loose !!!! HAPPY TRADING !!!