Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Thu Jun 19 1997 00:04)
Ah yes, a chat line with it's own psychic. And it is free.
Remember, chart readers are seers, also. Think not?
When was the last time a chart point or number remembered
anything? The line is a head and shoulder, so what, the
chart doesn't know it. It doesn't matter if you do.
The whales are justing waiting to eat your lunch at the next
phoney resistence level.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 00:15)
Panda: About 2 weeks ago, Kruggerands were selling for spot+$15,
but only a few were available. Eagles & Maple Leafs are +$35,
also limited availability. I noticed that there were 4 or 5
kilogram bars in the safe, however, so the issue may be form,
not availability.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 00:21)
@Monthly XAU Chart w/goodies
Click on icon to see a montly XAU chart w/bollinger bands, rate of change, stochastics, and williams %r indicator. Personally, I think we're headed to the top of the upper bollinger band fairly quickly, at least by Sept. Just my opinion. All you chartists out there can draw your own conclusions. happy trading, all :- ) )

(Thu Jun 19 1997 00:25)
EZAU....There are no guarantees in the markets....There are, however points at which the odds change....Neither have I met a psychic for the markets nor a guru with 100% success....This, like a good game of poker,or a roll on the craps tables, is played on the odds....Place your bets and pay for your draw of the cards or your chance to roll the dice...Sometimes snake eyes and sometimes sevens....Your message was directed toward either me or Mike Sheller, I guess....Can't speak for Mike, but I would be happy to compare results over the last 20 years with you...

(Thu Jun 19 1997 00:26)
The XAU and gold are getting very close to the target prices posted here over the last several weeks ( 5/30 21:12, 6/9 18:23 ) . This pull back has lasted longer than I had hoped which could mean more basing for a few weeks, but the price low maybe in within the next couple of days. Under 97 the XAU is a buy with a mental stop close of 95. Front month comex gold should bottom at 336. Buy Aug. Gold at 340 or lower using 338 stop close only. For now this is a short term trade but could easily turn into an intermediate term trade.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 00:57)
RJ and Puetz.. To interrupt your conversation, I'd like to add a few comments... RJ, for the rally in February, gold jerked up due to an oversold situation where alot of buyers stepped in and a run on shorts lasted several days. However, since the gold market is not just U.S. driven, even short covering at the Comex will reach a level where the Chinese, Indians, South Africans, Swiss, Arabs, etc, think its too high, and the peak is short lived. That happened in February and May, 1997.

For the rally in Spring 1996, the Chinese were experiencing inflation and therefore had demand for gold by individuals, which supported the worldwide rally, helping to push gold over $420. Since then, they have lowered their inflation considerably and the yuan has actually appreciated against the dollar, one of very few currencies which has. Why buy gold when your currency is doing so well?

There is currently very little international demand above $340 and Comex rallies will be short lived until there is a news shocker to change the international status quo. When that happens, I think Puetz is correct in predicting a zooming short covering bonanza.

In the long run, I'm a raging gold bull, but in the short term, we're in a down trend.

With that said, the current short term market is falling so fast that it reminds me of a spring being compressed and approaching its physical limit. It will bounce back with a nice short rally, perhaps to 350, or it will break....., shifting to a more negative paradigm.

John Disney
(Thu Jun 19 1997 01:45)
For the Roebear and Jung and Waite
Okay in the aesthetic or style sense shibui
means austere, understated, restrained. In the extreme
perhaps maybe astringent. The opposite of gaudy!
In this meaning there must be a konji for it and that
character presumably has a similar meaning in Chinese.
Gold is gaudy. I love it but it is ( dare I speak the word )
a touch FLASHY.
I suspect that longer term, Chinese with dough will
go for platinum over gold in jewellery as did japanese.
Their attitude, mind set, and their taste will control-
I can recall Japanese women gazing at black iron tea
pots or caligraphy or things black on black whispering
"shibui des - ne ?" - Whatever it is - Gold is
definitely NOT shibui.
Japanese platinum jewel demand 1,500,000 oz -
Europe demand 120,000, US 90,000, China 75,000. There
are a few messages here. Buy platinum of course, but
what does it say about US taste ? a bit Neanderthal
perhaps - a gold watch on a black haired wrist - YUK.
IM switching to platinum. AND CROCK-O-DILE SHOES MAN
lak RJ _____ Lets show a little style.

Kaizer Soyze
(Thu Jun 19 1997 01:47)
police lineup@the usual suspects
"These guys would never break - never give up"
-- Keep the faith

(Thu Jun 19 1997 02:03)
Puetz and all traders.There should be a rally in the yellow metal soon, if not for any other reason than that the trade shows will come up soon in the jewellery business.Is there a graph of the gold price during the year?

John Disney
(Thu Jun 19 1997 02:13)
To all
Im starting to bore myself with this platinum
stuff so what must I be doing to you guys -

Mining journal "gold service" June states "increasingly
lower emission standards..... led to... widespread use
of CLOSE - COUPLED catalysts with high palladium
loadings. In addition, UNDERFLOOR CATALYSTS,traditionally
the domain of platinum-rhodium formulations, are being
replaced by.....palladium". It also says that the its
use in autocatalyst ( 2.5 mill oz ) is greater than the
Wests output.
It also says that electronics uses ( 2.2 mill ) were eroded
last year by 15% due to substitution with nickel in
less critical multi layer ceramic capacitor applications.
I think we need some s&d balaces for the PGM

Daddy, whats an UNDERFLOOR CATALYST ?? and what does

John Disney
(Thu Jun 19 1997 02:20)
for Kuston
Sorry not to give you full credit - but couldnt find copy your post.
Believe platinum style - taste aspects extends korea - china - dont
think it is a skin tone thing but much deeper than that. Konji that
corresponds to understated austere non-gaudy side of japanese word
"shibui" must have big influence.

John Disney
(Thu Jun 19 1997 03:03)
For Puetz
I only said something like "my mind set was blah
blah ... system would not collapse" and I was just
kidding anyway.
This was the SECOND time that I have said that
1 - since all governments only issue bonds to the
extent that maximum attainable tax receipts do not
cover their costs.
2 - only a dope would believe that there is any way
they can repay the bonds since they have no source of
real income OTHER THAN tax receipts ( already at max ) - so
3 - the money to balance must be printed.

BUT Rather than print the money NOW to balance - they
print a BOND instead- sell to a guy with some dough
left after paying taxes and tell him they will print
the noney for HIM at maturity and print some INTEREST
for HIM in the meantime. So bond sales are DEFERRED
MONEY PRINTING for rich people. Since "rich people" in
US are getting sick of bonds Rubin now seeks them in
Japan/China - He even sells them to other GOVERMENTS
WHO ALSO RUN their OWN bond ponzi scheme ( this kills me
- these guys can be brazen - how stupid do they think
people are ? ) .
I have said this twice and asked for comments
since I thought I was perhaps nuts. Nobody said a
word !!!
Some guys from Vermont ( who seem to be changing
a bit ) even told me at some stage that I should PRAY
for the US Government, and then in the same breath
they complained about the rich getting richer and
how we should help our fellow man via the Government
intermediary. Guys like this are part of the problem.
and they even get the judeo-christian ethic into this
scam. They have been brainwashed by the guys they
SHOULD HATE but LOVE and WORSHIP instead - God Bless
our media - what a job it does.
Did you ever read Nausea by Sartre?? - A guy all
of a sudden has moments when he sees what the
world is really like - and he throws up !

(Thu Jun 19 1997 03:09)
Beyond UGLY.... FSAGX & FDPMX hourly charts at:

(Thu Jun 19 1997 03:29)
Mr. Disney : thank you. It is a nice feeling to contributute to this
fine forum.

I have another item for everyone: ( the lastest rumor I've heard )
Today the Russian space agency launched a Proton rocket with 7 Iridium
satelites on it. 30 minutes ago all 7 were released and had communicated
with the ground. The launch was ontime ( unlike the US launch of last month )
and without any problems ( again unlike the US launch ) . The word I heard
was everyone was amazed with the Russian technology. It far exceeded
what anyone was expecting. Yes, the technology is crude and old but it
works. To my knowledge, this was the first commerical Russian launch
for a US company. Didn't someone have a great quote about underestimating
your ememy? I think the QualComm/Baby Bells boys are feeling alittle
like the Japanese PA shorters right now.

Phil Harris
(Thu Jun 19 1997 04:19)
looking@gold chart
For Lord

If you cant help me - puleeze dont help dat bear

Bernatz de Ventadorm
(Thu Jun 19 1997 04:27)
le fou@ buys bonds
For Monsiour d'Isgny

Ma fren - vous avez raison - Ah am eshockED. Ziz ees ah scanDALE
by dam. Ah sell mah Pyraneen Governmente scam bonds when zee market open an ah buy zee gold wiz zee monaie . Who do zeez bums zink ah am by gar - ah stuPEED??

(Thu Jun 19 1997 04:50)
EBN gold up .85, silver up .01

(Thu Jun 19 1997 04:54)
@some comments...
RJ: our soviet friends will NOT deliver PGMs as they say. Since your first posts you have been alluding to this. It will be so! Your longs are still solid ( as if you needed me to tell you that ) . Thanks for your Silver advice are starting to sound a little more human with your postings tonight. I had you pegged for a true Demi-God. I know... its hard to live in So Cal w/ thongs and Herradura and to be without temptations and a HEALTHY libido ( we live close; I know ) . You have come down to the level of the common man. I'm sure you'll come around with your poetry again soon. I already miss it!

I do want to comment on your 6/12 04:35 post-US CPI last 20 yrs...Gold stats. ( I printed it for a good day ) . I have been studying these stats and feel good about them. Plot all the numbers for a bell curve...nature and symmetry abound! or just look at them closely. Without all this talk about selling by CB's and all the other nonsense where will the price of gold be in the next six months? Well... $383.00US is the average or 50% retracement ( $386.00 GCQ7 ) , right? I am not refuting your evidence but supporting it. Of course it may not happen until the price pushes down a little more. I love this stuff from an intermmediate to long term range! BLAH BLAH BLAH

STRATEGIES for all? YES! OPTIONS? CALLS? YES! MONTH? I DON'T KNOW! OUT OF THE MONEY LONG TERM CALLS? NO! Buy VERY, VERY inexpensive ( nowadays ) close-to-the-money backspreads for August or October. If that doesn't work try December...etc. Work with your broker who specializes in options and will not reem you for commissions. You can build healthy positions near term for big gains at low cost - and keep doing it if you expire worthless Watch your hind end, you have a little exposure though. The risk/reward ratio is VERY appealing. YUM! YUM! LOT OF FUN!

And remember... trading futures involves risk BLAH BLAH BLAH you can get burned if you play with matches BLAH BLAH BLAH.

God it's late. g'night...



(Thu Jun 19 1997 06:23)
EBN Gold up .75 and Silver up 2 cents....

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jun 19 1997 07:00)
JOHN DISNEY: High praise for your memorable quote "Bonds are deferred money printing for rich people." You have elegantly summarized the GAME since 1980. But all games must end for new ones. There IS inflation...we are merely EXPORTING it into the FUTURE. But, then, isn't that what one always does with inflation? John, re your 1:45 - Don't forget the shades to go with your shibui Platinum bracelet and crocodile shoes ( I don't know how shubui reptile skin is here ) . LARRY: I don't see this gold market "falling fast" at all. Maybe last Fall/Winter, but now? NAILZ: ezau musta been talkin' about you, buddy. I'm no psychic. Wish I were.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 07:04)
EBN Gold up .70 and Silver up 2 cents...Trade deficit out at 8:30 ( EST ) :expected to rise to 9.5 from 8.5....Canada's economy gathers strength: The order backlog of manufacturers in April showed the biggest monthly gain in 3 years,rising 4.4% from March...Thank you, low Canadian Dollar....

(Thu Jun 19 1997 07:07)
to Mr. Disney
Sir, Welcome back from the Big Chill. Can you please tell Mr.
E. to bring back family values to our company? We are getting
bad press and those gay days at the park aren't helping. Oh,
and Donald says Hi.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 07:08)
Mornin Mike!...Rain+fog here....Long Bond UNCH this morn with yield @ 6.68%...CRASH in THailand continues....

Donald Duck
(Thu Jun 19 1997 07:10)
Hi Mick!

Bob A
(Thu Jun 19 1997 07:17)
to miro
I wish I knew but I sure don't think people will throw good money after bad. Sorry late with reply but I monitor this group while at work.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 07:20)
EBN Gold up .80 and Silver up 2 cents....

(Thu Jun 19 1997 07:20)
Morning Joke
Good morning Ted. I'm in the process of constructing a missle for you. As I look at the charts it looks like the criminal returning to the scene of the crime, the bear returning to its honey tree, gold returning to $400/oz. One must ask why. Why does the chicken cross the road? I cannot answer the former but try me on the latter.

Why did the chicken cross the road?

Pat Buchanan:
To steal a job from a decent, hard-working American.

The point is that the chicken crossed the road. Who cares why?
The ends of crossing the road justify whatever motive there was.

Thomas de Torquemada:
Give me ten minutes with the chicken and I'll find out.

Timothy Leary:
Because that's the only kind of trip the Establishment would let it take.

Carl Jung:
The confluence of events in the cultural gestalt necessitated
that individual chickens cross roads at this historical juncture, and,
therefore, synchronicitously brought such occurrences into being.

John Locke:
Because he was exercising his natural right to liberty.

Albert Camus:
It doesn't matter; the chicken's actions have no meaning except to him.

The Bible:
And God came down from the heavens, and He said unto the chicken,
"Thou shalt cross the road." And the Chicken crossed the road,
and there was much rejoicing.

Fox Mulder:
It was a government conspiracy.

The fact that you thought that the chicken crossed the road
reveals your underlying sexual insecurity.

Chickens, over great periods of time, have been naturally selected
in such a way that they are now genetically dispositioned to cross roads.

Darwin #2:
It was the logical next step after coming down from the trees.

Richard M. Nixon:
The chicken did not cross the road.
I repeat, the chicken did not cross the road.

Oliver Stone:
The question is not "Why did the chicken cross the road?"
but is rather "Who was crossing the road at the same time whom we
overlooked in our haste to observe the chicken crossing?"

Jerry Seinfeld:
Why does anyone cross a road? I mean, why doesn't anyone ever think to ask, "What the heck was this chicken doing walking around all over the place anyway?"

The Pope:
That is only for God to know.

Louis Farrakhan:
The road, you will see, represents the black man. The chicken crossed the "black man" in order to trample him and keep him down.

Martin Luther King, Jr.:
I envision a world where all chickens will be free to cross roads without having their motives called into question.

Immanuel Kant:
The chicken, being an autonomous being,
chose to cross the road of his own free will.

In my day, we didn't ask why the chicken crossed the road. Someone told us that the chicken had crossed the road, and that was good enough for us.

Dirk Gently ( Holistic Detective ) : I'm not exactly sure why, but right now I've got a horse in my bathroom.

Bill Gates:
I have just released the new Chicken 2000, which will both cross roads
AND balance your checkbook, though when it divides 3 by 2 it gets 1.4999999999.

That depends on which plane of reality the chicken was on at the time.

George Orwell:
Because the government had fooled him into thinking that he was crossing the road of his own free will, when he was really only serving their interests.

Colonel Sanders:
I missed one?

For the greater good.

To actualize its potential.

Karl Marx:
It was a historical inevitability.

Because if you gaze too long across the Road, the Road gazes also across you.

B.F. Skinner:
Because the external influences, which had pervaded its sensorium from
birth, had caused it to develop in such a fashion that it would tend to cross roads, even while believing these actions to be of its own freewill.

Jean-Paul Sartre:
In order to act in good faith and be true to itself, the chicken found it necessary to cross the road.

Albert Einstein:
Whether the chicken crossed the road or the road crossed the chicken depends upon your frame of reference.

Pyrrho the Skeptic:
What road?

The Sphinx:
You tell me.

If you ask this question, you deny your own chicken nature.

Emily Dickenson:
Because it could not stop for death.

Ralph Waldo Emerson:
It didn't cross the road; it transcended it.

Ernest Hemingway:
To die. In the rain.

Saddam Hussein:
This was an unprovoked act of rebellion and we were quite justified in dropping 50 tons of nerve gas on it.

Saddam Hussein #2:
It is the Mother of all Chickens.

Joseph Stalin:
I don't care. Catch it. I need its eggs to make my omelette.

Dr. Seuss:
Did the chicken cross the road?
Did he cross it with a toad?
Yes the chicken crossed the road,
but why it cross it, I've not been told!

It didn't. I was playing golf with it at the time.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 07:35)
Hang Seng up 302.60 ( 2.13% ) ....

(Thu Jun 19 1997 07:39)
At the beach
Tort, wonderful chicken jokes!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 07:43)
The Stock Exchange Of Thailand was down 18.17 ( 3.76% ) in Thursday's trading on news minister of finance is resigning...The S.E.T. is down almost 10% in the last THREE trading days...and is now down over 65% in the last 12 months...There's yer CRASH!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 07:46)
Blonde: I second that!...Liked Richard Millhouse Nixon...hahaha..

(Thu Jun 19 1997 07:47)
@ Valley
Mornin Ted : The monsoon continues !! Don't know if anyone has seen this but it falls in line with the our weather. CRAPPY!!!!!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 07:50)
Thanks Blonde. Good to hear from you. Ted, the missle is airborne.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 07:50)
Thanks Blonde. Good to hear from you. Ted, the missle is airborne.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 07:52)
Blonde, Ted, sorry to stutter. I may have a dual personality.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 07:53)
Missile was a direct hit and I'm tryin to piece everything back together again...Will get back at you but I'll be seeing one of those "big players" on the second leg of my journey...hahaha

(Thu Jun 19 1997 08:06)
Interesting Cobalt story with startling similarities to palladium;

Russia Norilsk;

But we're broke!

Very optimistic Japanese;

(Thu Jun 19 1997 08:23)
Mornin Panda...stop yawnin and drink some more of that java!..Trade deficit numbers out in SEVEN minutes...I remember when THAT was the BIG number....

(Thu Jun 19 1997 08:34)
Long bond up ONE tick...yawn...S+P futures up 1.15...yawn...London Gold down .60...Bloody Brits!...TRADE DEFICIT= much smaller than expected @ 8.4 Billion ....expected to be 9.5 Billion...S+P futures @ +1.05...1.45....get the drift!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 08:40)

Confident Japanese investors putting on fresh shorts in Pa. I love the smell of burning retail investors in the morning. Spot market Pa already up $10 bucks since their brilliance. Can they pick'em.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 08:41)
morning to you.
i covered my short this morning at u.s 339.20,play save!earn a bit!
look liked metals lack of power to go north,let see!
by the way,the thai financial,commercial ministers steped down today.More cabinet members going to resign soon.the thai stock and bhats TUMBLE LIKED A ROLLING STONE....BANGGGGGGGG!

George S. Cole
(Thu Jun 19 1997 08:42)
new era thinking
Ted: Thanks for "The Skeptical Investor." Good antidote to new era thinking

George S. Cole
(Thu Jun 19 1997 08:47)
august gold
August gold up $1.10 despite better than expected trade report. But unless the gold stocks can stage a decent rally today, the short-term trend is still down.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 08:50)
G.S.Cole: You are welcome!...Max is a brillant man even though he's a "Bloody Brit"...HI JIN! 3.76% loss for the S.E.T....WOW!...Again, thanks for the Bangkok Post and I now read it with my cornflakes every morning!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 09:05)
Long Bond up 7 ticks with yield @ 6.67%...Ralph Acampora: Dow 10,000 by June 1998...S+P futures up 3.05...

(Thu Jun 19 1997 09:38)
In the wee hours weeks ago we received an anonymous email which talked about "WAR IN KOREA." It's impact on GOLD could be impressive. See ANONYMOUS GURU:

(Thu Jun 19 1997 09:43)
There is discussion here from time to time about sensitivity to bad news. In this regard, IMO, gold is giving a pretty good account for itself at this time.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 09:54)
Boom times!
bill is smokin and joken with the boys in denver. Going to tell em how to grow just like the ol usa. bill should ask a few questions about the roots of this boom in the usa.

Perhaps part of our boom is due in no small part to the floods of hot foreign cash going into tbills. Floods so great that Greenspan is left with but two choices raise rates or credit controls! Either one should start end game.

Perhaps part of our boom is due to the exports of machine tools ect. going to mexico and china ect. Exports they are using to build light industry to sell us the tens of billions worth/month of goods that will be produced in those plants. When their demand for the capitol goods slows will our demand for the cheap consumer goods slow? No problem more tbonds you say. How about a trade deficit of 20 billion/month. That might get the bond markets attention.

Perhaps part of our boom is due to the massive infrastructure we are building to accommodate the new global trade.

Perhaps part of our boom is due to the displaced workers in this country working ( for awhile ) as waiters and gas attendants for the rich who are pocketing most of the profits form the "global economy". When things slow and they get layed off?

Yes bill its a boom, keep smokin and perhaps it will last as long as your days in the white house.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 10:06)

bw: Why would large amounts of foreign cash lead to
higher rates? Seems Greenspan might lower rates
since inflow makes US dollar stronger.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 10:12)
XAU 100.47, broke 50MA, look out shorts or is this short covering?

George S. Cole
(Thu Jun 19 1997 10:19)
gold action
August gold up $1.40 and gold stocks finally staging a decent rally. As Steve Kaplan has pointed out, Asian gold demand soars every time bullion dips below $340; looks like this may be happening again.

Real tug of war right now. The bears ae going all out; if they cannot trigger a sharp drop in the next few days, a strong rally above $350 is in the cards. Even if they are successful in driving bullion to $330 or so, this still looks like the final spike down.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 10:32)
@...Ron on Honk Kong
I could not view yesterday's Washington Post Opinion article that you reference. I did see a news feature on Canadian T.V. about 3 weeks ago about the HK transfer to PRC. The investigative report was conducted with leading HK businessmen, a lawyer, a politician, and 'Joe Average'. The theme was that nobody was jumping ship as the Reds "need" a prosperous HK to help the Chinese achieve economic goals of growth and self-sufficiency. The HK elite have been co-opted to help China to achieve these golas in return for continued personal financial security. It is a 'win-win' situation for the rich. The politicians and 'Joe Average', however, will need to toe the line. Remember that the British never insituted a real democracy in HK. The autocratic system prevails with a new master in the drivers seat.

Unfortunately for gold, Hong Kong probably will not wink at the RPC take-over and expected restricted policy changes. The Chinese have lots of patience.

The late Ramsey Clark stated upon arrival in Tehran to help negotiate ( privately ) a resolution to the US embassy hostage crisis ( 1980s ) : '..the problem is that Americans expect change to happen immediately...'. We ( Westerners ) are used to fast paced historic change and expect immediate results. The people of HK are used to a fast capitalist economy but a slow historic process - they waited 100 years for the transfer back to China. The RPC has signed an agreement to secure the capitalist system in HK for at least 50 years irrespective of how they treat 'Joe Average'. Human rights, BTW, were not entrenched during the British colonial regime.


(Thu Jun 19 1997 10:32)
@...Ron on Honk Kong
I could not view yesterday's Washington Post Opinion article that you reference. I did see a news feature on Canadian T.V. about 3 weeks ago about the HK transfer to PRC. The investigative report was conducted with leading HK businessmen, a lawyer, a politician, and 'Joe Average'. The theme was that nobody was jumping ship as the Reds "need" a prosperous HK to help the Chinese achieve economic goals of growth and self-sufficiency. The HK elite have been co-opted to help China to achieve these golas in return for continued personal financial security. It is a 'win-win' situation for the rich. The politicians and 'Joe Average', however, will need to toe the line. Remember that the British never insituted a real democracy in HK. The autocratic system prevails with a new master in the drivers seat.

Unfortunately for gold, Hong Kong probably will not wink at the RPC take-over and expected restricted policy changes. The Chinese have lots of patience.

The late Ramsey Clark stated upon arrival in Tehran to help negotiate ( privately ) a resolution to the US embassy hostage crisis ( 1980s ) : '..the problem is that Americans expect change to happen immediately...'. We ( Westerners ) are used to fast paced historic change and expect immediate results. The people of HK are used to a fast capitalist economy but a slow historic process - they waited 100 years for the transfer back to China. The RPC has signed an agreement to secure the capitalist system in HK for at least 50 years irrespective of how they treat 'Joe Average'. Human rights, BTW, were not entrenched during the British colonial regime.


(Thu Jun 19 1997 10:45)
@for U

The price of gold bullion is higher in light trading in early North
American dealings on steady physical buying.
Dealers said short-covering and scattered physical buying from Italy
pushed the yellow metal higher despite fears over the possibility of
gold sales by European central banks.
Analysts say gold fell below its technical support level at $340 in
Europe on reports that the Belgian government plans to sell its gold
Experts noted the Belgian government's plans show that it is pursuing
a policy of removing gold as a significant feature in its central bank
reserves and sent a message that central banks are on the lookout for
any opportunity to sell gold from their reserves.
On the metals markets, in early trading on New York's Comex, a 100-
troy-ounce gold futures contract for June delivery opened at $340, up 90
cents from Wednesday's close.
A 5,000-troy-ounce silver futures contract for July delivery opened
at $4.695, unchanged.
In Europe, gold opened $2.65 an ounce lower in Zurich at $339 and
opened $3 lower in London at $339.50.
The London morning gold fixing was $340.15, off $2.35 from
Wednesday's close.
Silver opened 12 cents lower in Zurich at $4.70 an ounce and opened 9
cents lower in London at $4.72 an ounce.
In Asia, gold fell $2.40 an ounce to $339.65 in Hong Kong.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 11:12)
@the scene
Between a rock and a hard place. Raise rates and the economy cools off too much. As the numbers are showing, there is a 'bit' of that happening already. Borrowing capacity has already peaked. Bancruptcies making higher highs every quarter. ( There ought to be a futures market in that. ) The only seemingly 'good' news is in the blue chips ( at this time ) . Under these conditions, I would mostly expect the rates to either remain where they are or be eased, providing they don't want an 'end game' scenario developing at this time. This would not reduce an ever increasing mass of bancruptcies from occurring, but may prolong the day until 'things' do rapidly fall apart. The other question remains as to the foreign purchasers of our paper. Will they 'demand' higher rates of return for the ever increasing risk in buying our debt? Much of that depends on the salesmanship of the feds of state. One saleable point is that if the foreign countries of the world want the US to be a marketplace for their goods, they better be buying our paper! And at the rates WE specify! Even at this juncture, that is still much more preferable than selling into third world countries where annual income is measured in only hundreds of dollars, and sometimes much less. Also, the dollar being a major reserve currency of the world, it also behooves them to support its 'value'. How long this paper game can continue is a very reasonable question that only time will answer. But for an end game scenario not to develop, there are a lot of conditions that continually have to be met, and a lot of other scenarios that can't come true least that 'day' arrive. It'll be interesting, as usual, to see how well they can juggle the pieces.

Steve (Perth - Western Australia)
(Thu Jun 19 1997 11:20)
Commodities Review ( Gold ) in today's Financial Review is Oz.
These journo's are a day or so behind!!

Strad Master
(Thu Jun 19 1997 11:20)
Still waiting.
MIKE SHELLER: It's been a two days since I posted my long piece about astrology and I'm very curious as to your response. I hope you didn't miss seeing it. I also hope you understood that I meant NO offence in writing it. ( I think that was abundantly clear but it never hurts to reiterate. ) My only point of contention was your equating medicine and astrology as somehow scientifically equal. While this isn't the time for it, perhaps you'd be good enough to write a few words when the markets have settled. I'd appreciate hearing from you as I do desire to learn. Thanks.

Steve (Perth - Western Australia)
(Thu Jun 19 1997 11:22)
Apologies - should read: Commodities Review ( Gold ) in today's Financial Review IN Oz.
These journo's are a day or so behind!!

Bob A
(Thu Jun 19 1997 11:36)
to bw
I agree with you 100%

(Thu Jun 19 1997 11:45)
For STOCK MARKET BEARS and any others interested in the market.. ( for the last time ) A good site by a good friend!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 11:45)
DocDuke and Panda: Vis a vis DocDuke's 0:19 post on availability of metals. Availability is now. Prices are low with $8 spread on maples and eagles, even better on krands. We keep posting these names here and on Kitco2 but here goes again. Blanchard @ New Orleans spot +15 ask with spot +7 bid. 1 800-285-5466. There are several other places with low spreads like Jefferson Coin and Monex but I don't have their numbers handy. NEVER pay $35 premium on a bullion coin. You don't have to. Later!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 11:47)
William Safire on the Euro

(Thu Jun 19 1997 11:48)
Can't spell worth a damn!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 11:55)
@Pondering the Second Test
Evening All,
EB re your 04:54 comments on Backspreads. I looked up yesterdays Gold Option trading and noticed that things are hotting up in December calls. Dec 360 calls traded 1444 lots ,closing at $2.60. Dec 370 calls traded 3092 lots , closing at $1.50. This in fact looks like someone has already done a hefty backspread in December expiry.
For the speculator, selling 1 360 call and buying 2 370 calls "costs" 40 cents with a possible MAXIMUM loss of $10.00 PLUS brokerage if Dec futures are trading @ $370 on expiry in November. A ratio spread can become profitable if Dec futures rally by $10 - $20 before then and/or implied volatility in option premiums jumps.
For the market maker on the other side, I imagine they would happily do this trade all day ( the 2 by 1 call ratio spread ) ; ( 1 ) IF they thought gold was going nowhere in the next few weeks and/or ( 2 ) IF they could make prices in the 380 call, get hit on their bid and turn it into a cheap butterfly ( no snickering from the Chaos mathematicians please ) and/or ( 3 ) IF they were prepared to "wing" it and stump up the short option margin to the clearing house until they could buy the 380 cheaply.

Now I'm probably just raving about what everyone already knows anyway, ( and one of those lurker number persons will probably tell me so ) but EB I thought your comments were worth following up in light of 4000+ December calls going through the day before your post.

Now a question I have that perhaps Glenn, RJ , D.A. or anyone else might help me with is how much brokerage are you charged for Gold calls? If it is something like $10 r/t then the "cost" of the backspread after brokerage is 70 cents. If brokerage is something like $40 r/t , "cost" becomes something like $1.60 which would seem to tilt the odds against the trade .


ACW re your 14:00 of the 18th,
For the benefit of our North American friends, the glorious and gentlemanly sport of cricket has in the past temporarily stopped wars, border skirmishes, and many cabinet meetings. And today a contest over 100 years old resumes at the Home of cricket, Lord's in West London. The Second Test is between Marylebone Cricket Club ( England ) and Australia and England have only won once at Lord's this century. Will this be the Second ?

Will Gold bounce off $340, will D.A. have the opportunity to add to his PA longs, will silver's widening daily range signal a precious metals turnaround. Only time will tell.

I thank all contributors for their input, and wish to graciously thank Bart for providing this forum.
Happy Trading

(Thu Jun 19 1997 11:58)
OOPS! XAU 99.47 at 11:54 EDT. I'm waiting for a story about Kelloggs or someone putting gold in cereal boxes for prizes.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 12:59)
I have just finished reading "The Day After Rosswell" by Col Philip J. Corso ( Ret ) .

Essentially this book is defacto admission by the pentagon that UFO's exist. That is, it is an expose by the man who ran the Army's UFO desk in the early 60's - complete with an introduction by Senator Strom Thurmond.

Corso had a distinguished career in military intelligence, working on McArthur's staff in Korea and then with the NSC in the Eisenhower whitehouse. In 1961 he took over the Foreign Technology Desk for Army R&D and inherited what was left of the Rosswell artifacts that the army had still and talks about how this technology was introduced into existing R&D programs.

Astonishing relevations from someone actually involved with UFO activities in the military but he goes much, much further revealing ( sometimes between the lines, sometimes very esplicitly ) the penetration of the highest levels of Washington by the KGB, the total distrust of the CIA by the military, the hostile intentions of the visitors, their harassment of the space program, how the cold war ( which was very real ) was used to hide a miliary build up to deal with an even greater threat, and finally how we developed anti UFO weapons to counter them.

"The full story behind the SDI and the way it changed the Cold War and forced the extraterrestials to change their strategies for this planet is a story that has never been told. But as spectacular and fantastic as it may sound, the story behind limited deployment of the SDI is the story of how humanity won it's first victory against a more powerful and technologically superior enemy who discovered, to whatever version of shock it experiences, that there was real trouble down on it's farm."

What does this book mean?? Corso reveals that he was the one that leaked information to force Kennedy to face the Russians down - starting the Cuban Missle crises - something Kennedy was apparently trying to avoid. Perhaps he is now trying to do something similar with this book. Perhaps he is an "advance man" for even more significant revelations about to come.

It will be very, very interesting to see the reaction that this book gets.

At Roswell
(Thu Jun 19 1997 13:04)
Fiftieth Anniversary
The book is quite interesting. As a footnote, Strom Thurmond
has "retracted" his introduction. Apparently he didn't realize
it was going into a mainstream book.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 13:08)
Opinion-technical update Dow,SP= VeryBullish Gold = Bearish XAU = Bearish Dollar Poker-faced .All XAU stocks are below the 200 day with no hope in sight.I am know short Gold & Gold stocks to at least September.Any rallies will be short lived until we get over the 200 day.Xau bottom 78 Happy Trails

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jun 19 1997 13:13)
One last time
STRAD MASTER: First, you did not offend me. I find you to be one of the truly civil gentlemen, among many, at this site. I love debate and verbal and conceptual tussles. That's why I enjoy hanging around. No problem there. Generally, I do not make it a practice to defend astrology, or anything else I'm interested in or do. I just do it. ALL I said was that, like medicine, ( and music ) astrology is an ART based ( BASED ) on a science. The PRACTICE of astrology, like music or medicine, is an ART. Even the LAW, which is a list of rules and regulations - it's ALL SPELLED OUT fer cryin' out loud - is subject to wide and incredible disputation and interpretation. I do NOT claim that astrology is a SCIENCE. Astrology is a very subtle art. At its core it deals with the metaphysics of how things come into being, cycle, and then go out of manifestation. This is very heavy. If you are a total materialist who believes we came from apes and that there is only a chemical explanation for this marvelous universe, then astrology is not for you. If you are a dogmatic religionist who believes that an omnipotent god yanks us about like puppets at his whim, and everything is created and decided by this big guy, then astrology is not for you. If you are the kind of person who admits that the mystery of existence, the true origin of the CONSCIOUS SELF in man, is worthy of search and examination in whatever direction speculative thought leads...then perhaps astrology might be a potentially fruitful addition to all of your other categories of knowledge. Dear Strad, if I may call you Strad, please understand that the true ART of astrology is, to what you've probably been exposed to, as a tin kazoo is to a symphony orchestra. Yes, they both play "music." But I think you get the point. So you'll forgive me if a contention over the validity of what I'm interested in is something I do not want to pursue. If you have any specific questions about astrology, I would be happy to offer a thought here and there. I think you will agree that so Iong as my observations concerning astrology have some reasonable relationship to the precious metals, and other important markets, they have as much right to be here as any price chart reader's, or fundamentalist's, or Eliott Waver, or political analyst's. I come here to learn from people who don't do exactly what I do . Hope my response did not inordinately take you from your trading.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 13:22)
Congo news;

Gold news;

(Thu Jun 19 1997 13:24)
John C. @11:55 _ I was just checking in at my lunch hour and have to run again, but your option comment deserves a quick explanation. The possible $10.00 cost of which you speak is actually $1,000. as you might already know ( $10.00* 100oz ) , so the RT #'s of which you speak are much more insignificant than your apparent perception. If RT was $10 per contract you would ahve total costs o $30. ) I think this is possible if you buy the options in quantity ( as discussed here at Kitco previously ) . However if your RT was $40. per trade ( Times 3 trades ) your cost would be $120. However this does not add an overbearing amount ( percentage wise ) to your total trade. I'm sure if you rework the #'s you'll get my drift.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jun 19 1997 13:24)
Smoke 'em if you got 'em
Talk on CNBC this lunchtime about the numbers in the BigTobacco "settlement" reaching toward 370 Billion. Yes, that was a B. What a neat way for the government to paper over an annual budget deficit or two. I suppose the money, judging from share prices obviously in the form of higher cigarette taxes, will go into a trust fund for the poor wretched victims, just like SS. There goes EVERYTHING up in smoke. By this reasoning, there should be open season on the distilled alcohol industry. Probably more lives wrecked, ruined, and destroyed by demon rum and its cohorts. Anyone have any ideas why this industry is exempt ( so far ) ? The moral here is be very careful what you choose to do to yourself. Your neighbor may have to pay for it.

Spud Master
(Thu Jun 19 1997 13:27)
'bring out your dead...
GFD re. "UFOs": Oh, please, get real. Aliens threatened by Earth's SDI technology? Real aliens would just sample our various diseases ( Small pox, anthrax, cholera, measles, typhoid, yellow fever, influenza, etc ) , produce versions immune to our current antibiotics, vaccines, etc. and simply release them simultaneously on the Earth's population. The handful of survivors left a month later would be no problem to them taking over da Earth. The only downside for the Aliens is their would be few Earthwomen left for them to ravish. Of course, they might take Agent Sculley prisoner before the bioblitz in order that they could have their way with her.


(Thu Jun 19 1997 13:33)
poorboys Canada
Mike Sheller Question The uranus Venus Square is August 27 how do you arrive with October?

(Thu Jun 19 1997 13:36)
@Home Page??
All the details on Bill Clinton

(Thu Jun 19 1997 13:44)
@tastie backspreads
John C. thank you much for your input. Yes these are the type of spreads to which I am referring. I too have been closely monitoring the call/put volume - Bohl & assoc. page is one of the best on the web. If one is expecting a sharp move upwards ( or downwards for that matter ) than this is the way to get on board CHEAP w/ unlimited profit potential... if you can get a good r/t. Or who cares if they charge $50r/t if the move is what you expect. Just be careful not to have your pants down as you get closer to expiry ( as you say ) . When Gold gets to $383+ ( 50% correction according to RJ ) ...someday... we will have made some TASTIE bucks!

And it will get to $383+...someday...cuz I said so!

Question for GLENN, R.J., D.A. - Will they be offering DEC options with a $5.00 strike increments in the future. They are available in most other contracts. The five dollar increments make for TASTIER spreads...



(Thu Jun 19 1997 13:50)
@South of Noosa Heads
Hi Steven, thanks for your quick response on option costs.
When I spoke of 40 cents cost of the Backpread, that was per OUNCE and I apologize if I didn't make that clear.... so,..

"Cost" of -1/dec 360 call;+2/dec 370 calls would be say $40.00. What I'd like to find is if brokerage would then add $30 or $120 to "cost". Additonal risk is $10 strike price gap ( i.e. $1000 per contract as you point out ) plus financing cost of margin.
Of course I should have added my usual warnings about selling options being potentially "risky". If any one reading doesn't want to post brokerage costs publically, I would be very grateful if they could email me at:

Steven thanks for all your contributions at this great forum.

My tuppence worth on inflation, seeing I know you sell Toronto real estate. My sister and husband were transferred to Sydney 3 weeks ago and in the hunt for a house they have estimated prices have gone up 10% since they first started looking ( from Perth ) just a few months back. It's just as well they don't drink coffee as well. ...But as we all know, there is no inflation.
Happy Trading

(Thu Jun 19 1997 13:52)
@agent Scully...
There is a real TASTIE treat sensation!! OHmy!



(Thu Jun 19 1997 13:53)
@..analysis, luck, and Gold Cartel
Everyone eventually is right at least once - either they are right or they admit to being wrong. As long as the CB's dominate gold market psychology and price any market guess based on technical anaylsis is no more than a complicated ( sometimes laborious ) guess at two possible outcomes - up or down. Technical analysis begins with the premise that the market is near perfect and no party could combine to manage price or quantity. The Gold Cartel controls at least ten years of marketable supply - forget the jewelry stocks. Any of you TA experts care to come in the ring with me and "attempt" to explain how the CB Cartel does not distort TA on the gold market ?


(Thu Jun 19 1997 14:09)
Canucks' Corner @ Skeptical Investor
TED June 19 @ 11:45 I am sorry to see only 4 lines of print with
a reference to a Liberal ( NO ! Bank of Canada ) low dollar of 72
to 74 cent canadian.
I thought I would add a note, regarding the financial connection
between Canada, and USofA. Also, the issue of Quebec.

The USofA Federal Reserve established in 1913 ( Woodrow Wilson )
Bank of Canada established in 1935 ( William Lyon Mackenzie King )
Prior to 1935, Canada owned the right to print money. The profit
earned on the sale of this money to the Banks ( 2% ) , issued for
resale to Corporations and the Public ( the Banks SURVIVED on a
spread of one-half to one percent ) , was sufficient to carry all
national infrastructure expenses, without the need for any income
or consumption taxes.

All of this has changed since then as everspiralling tax increases
are needed to pay interest/usury annually, simply because the
International Bankers stole our Printing Press.

The International Bankers are an EMPIRE. They have no enemies in
Russia any more: Communism is a spent force. They have no enemies
in the Labour Unions: They've bought out the Leadership of both
sides. They have only * one * enemy left: * That is us *, and we
represent 90 % of the Canadian Population.

It is not simply a matter of the People of Canada against the People
of the USofA, but of the People of Canada AND the USofA against the
* INVISIBLE * Rulers of both Countries.

Canada is the largest and richest country in the World, and we need
to take our Country back. It was stolen from us. First when the Bank
of Canada was established in 1935, and more conclusively when
MULRONEY did *HIS* Free Trade Deal.

On the surface, for the most part, everything is placid, innocuous,
but underneath everything is seething, turbulent, colliding, revealing
the shapes of evil and of good.

The whole of Canada must free itself from High Finance ! We want
economic independence, in a strong and united Canada.

The Quebecers do not want the separation of Quebec from the rest of
Canada. The French-Canadians are co-founders of Canada. Why should
their descendants separate from Canada ? Will they give up this rich heritage passed on by their ancestors ? Canada belongs to all Canadians
We want a united and prosperous Canada, freed from High Finance.

This poster, would be most interested, in seeing a discussion about
the subject matter above, Yes, as it relates to GOLD. Thanks.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 14:19)
Gold up $20! No, $30! Wow, it's at 400! Oops, ignore that, sorry, I think I'm delirious. Why don't I just take 3 valium and lie down.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 14:26)
Spuds Away!!
Spud Master: The issue is not whether the book is real or not. There has been such incredible disinformation out there that short of a Presidential announcement outsiders will never really know for sure what is going on. However, this is the first time that a pentagon/intelligence "insider" has come out and made statements that UFO's are real and he was personally involved with managing artifacts from them and what he thought of their real agenda.

He is now an old man and can be easily discredited. The question is will he? If he is an advance man, he may not be. If he is discredited ( very high probability ) then how badly?

(Thu Jun 19 1997 14:27)
@the scene
6pak -- Just goes to show what can happen when a country has printing presses for 'money' in the first place! The whole world seems to have that problem. The cure would be to give them the punishment reserved for counterfeiters and all those that allowed them to do so in the first place. 'Course, perhaps we who live in the 'republics' shouldn't look too far and wide for them. We might find ourselves finally looking in the mirror, as WE, as the people, are the government.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 14:34)
@...Gold Fundametals 101
The fundamental price of gold ( primarily jewelry demand ) is inelastic. This means that as gold price rises the demand for jewelry declines and inventory builds sufficiently to bring price equalibrium back to a fundamental trading range. The speculative or monetary demand for gold distorts the price dynamic to create an illusion that does not prevail in the long-term inelastic fundamental nature of gold as a major commodity.

The CB Cartel has proven that gold is really a commodity product and that speculative demand for gold based on its historic use are a medium of exchange was only sanctioned to the extent that the world financial powers, and world bankers, were willing to sustain gold as a monetary asset.

To prove my point we need to look back in history when gold was not always commonly accepted as a monetary asset. Manhattan was purchased ( we are told ) by the Dutch from the natives for beads and commodities. The point is that at any given time in history a community determines its set of values and referential composites. To be sure, gold has played a significant role in the discovery of new lands ( America ) in the pursuit of finding additional supply - amoung other geopolitical claims of 15th century empires - primarily English, French, Spanish, Dutch, and Potugese.

The gold standard further solidified the value of the precious metal at a time when paper currency was newly introduced by banks - and later, nations, as a means of common exchange. It was the uncertainty of the new paper dominated currencies in commercial exchnage and as a reserve that made gold - the historic relic of exchange - a valuable reserve currency.

In post-modern history the US had solifified its global dominace after WWII and then again in the Information Age that rapidly evolved after great strides thereafter. The US greenback superseeded Sterling as the world currency during the mid-20th century.

Currency consolidations in Europe and SE Asia - based on the rising Japanese economic miracle and the value of the YEN followed by the five tigers ( HK, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, Korea ) - resulted in a global vote of confidence in the US greenback AND US govt debt as a proxy.

These events in recent history set the stage for the eventual demise of gold as a monetary asset for CB's and global bankers.

The world no longer is ruled by the gold standard and few could care less about the gold standard or the rational premise of the Bretton Woods Agreement that inaugurated the gold standard in 1944.

Gold as a monetary asset is on its death bed. The past fifteen years since the great leap to $850 clearly indicates a long-term downward trend in gold price. CB's are selling there collective stocks ( save the US Treasury ) to focus on ( primarily ) US govt debt as replacement assets - assets that pay interest and retain value within an accepted inflationary range.

The death knell of gold was sounded by the spin doctors and news trumpets that proclaim the coincident death of inflation and stagnation - known as stagflation in the heady days of the 1981-82 great recession.

So there you have it folks.

Gold is in a fundamental funk due to the substantial death of the speculative ( monetary ) demand for the metal. Demand for gold, and price changes, will respond ( inelastically ) to primary fundamental factors - jewelry demand in India, SE Asia, and, to a lesser extent, EC/G7 communities.

My holdings in gold are in the stocks of senior developers that find sufficient world class mines that offer substantial returns after the capital and operating costs are recovered at current prices.

I, like most Kitcoites, hope that gold goes through the roof, but, unlike most Kitcoites, I'm realistic about low probabilty of a "long-term" recovery of gold prices to its high range - $400+ - prior to the recent sixteen month ( or so ) down trend.

Any thoughts or rebuttals are welcome.


Spud Master
(Thu Jun 19 1997 14:43)
Tora! Tora! Tora!
GFD: "...short of a Presidential announcement..." ... who the hell cares what "the President" has to say? I think we can certainly do better than that as a source of veracity - even for so dubious a topic as UFOs. My point is that I seriously doubt *any* alien race able to reach Earth is going to do anything but have a good, hard laugh at our SDI technology. We can't even hit practice targets with THADD interceptors, much less an alien space craft. It's statements such as you quote about SDI scaring the "aliens" that destroys credibility in the book. Actually, the aliens need not even bother with bioblitzed bioweapons - just wait another two years of this "irrational market exuberance" + fake FED $ money + consumer debt and the world will be wasted.


George S. Cole
(Thu Jun 19 1997 14:44)
Andy Smith clone
BOB: Andy Smith, Bob Rubin, or Ted Arnold couldn't have said it better. We will see who is correct.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 15:12)
@...the US Gold Reserve and price theories
The US greenback has replaced gold as the world's defacto reserve of value. US debt is a proxy to the greenback. An interesting observation is that although most of the world's CB cartel members have publicly announced intentions to sell gold sales and have liquidated inventories over the past decade, the US has resisted selling the significant minority inventory they own of the world's marketable gold supply - about 290 mozs.

I believe this is a transitionary policy. The US will hold its gold stock only to extent that it consolidates the greenbacks global power - and more importantly, support for US govt debt as a proxy currency.

The end result is that the entire world financial system is leveraged off the US monetary system and its gold reserve. The US gold reserve increasing supports a smaller portion of US global monitised debt ( currency + debt securities ) . The other world powers have no reason to hold gold reserves as long as the US greenback and debt is backed by gold - whatever the coverage.

The weening off gold as a reseve and deterioration of the gold standard continues unabated. The yellow relic will become a footnote in world financial history. Goldbugs will never accept the passing of gold and will hopelessly await the 'second coming' until the end of time.

( As a point of reference, I note a few interesting themes - war, famine, armagedeon, astrology, conspiracy, TA - woven into some of the Kitco posts to support extreme gold price theories. )


Edward Yardeni
(Thu Jun 19 1997 15:13)
@dow at 15,000 by 2005
Call me crazy?...or just plain dumb...?


(Thu Jun 19 1997 15:19)
@ A

Looking at the CDE ( Cour d'Alene ) 5 minute chart today at, it shows that today's low was 11 5/8 and the high now is 12 3/4. It shows on the 5 minute chart that it was at the bottom for about 10 minutes and then a sharp V up to the current level. Would have loved to had caught that bottom of 11 5/8.

Now that is what I would like to see in XAU and Gold on the weekly charts. := )

(Thu Jun 19 1997 15:23)
@Big Trader
Well, I've been watching HK and London like BT said, but, alas, I'm seeing nothing yet. Looks like his plans went awry or he was a bit premature in his time forecast. He's got 6 more trading days to go to prove he's for real.

Bob A
(Thu Jun 19 1997 15:34)
Who is Edward Yardini?

(Thu Jun 19 1997 15:38)


Just a thought that crossed my mind why possibly the Chinese agreed to purchase the American Bonds besides MFN status. When they purchase those bonds, are they not purchasing a piece of America of the Govt of the USA for some reason doesn't pay back the payments due. Would it be possible for the Govt. of China to "OWN" a city/state/country through default of payment?


(Thu Jun 19 1997 15:43)
@the scene
Bob -- The world financial system based on an ever growing pile of US debt. Doesn't that sound laughable to you? Doesn't it occur to you that there is only two ways to handle debt; either by repaying it or by defaulting on it. Rolling it over only compounds the problem. Like rolling a small snowball over a carpet of snow, it eventually expands to unmanagable proportions. Debt repayment requires a means to do so. More taxes? Less spending? Much much greater productivity? Be mighty careful waving that 'paper' flag. Many may take you as a paper purchaser some fateful day and try to unload it on you.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 15:50)
@ Limited Time Only!
For chartists try for access to these technical indicators for a limited time only: MA, Bolliger Bands,Linear Regression, On Balance Volumn, RSI, Average True Range, Stochastics, MACD, etc. Have fun!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 15:57)
Damn#@*&%!!! Got stopped out of August COMEX gold. Id like to get back in "the game" for the future rise in gold, but am not sure what target month to go long - Oct, Dec ( or beyond? ) . Anyone have any good recos? Im not familiar enough with options to get into that yet. Ive got an adequate holding of the physical stuff and would prefer to speculate for a bigger return on the leveraged metal contracts. ( Im not hard over on gold. If theres money to be made in silver, platinum, etc. I would consider adopting convincing strategies there...

Im tapped out on commodities of the apocalypse ( firearms ) . Send those aliens my way! Wish I could sell a few for cash, but guns have been like gold lately - a depressed market - too much bad press, pessimism... Too bad I can't sell to our Canadian and British friends, but their governments have banned ownership of all the good guns.

Anyway, I enjoy the dialog and would appreciate any good advice on gold, silver, etc.

Mr Moto
(Thu Jun 19 1997 16:04)
abacus@chinese treasury
For Mr BOB
Very good BOB. One question. When you pay chinese the
interest on so - called US debt reserve currency fancy
talk, where you get money from ???. When debt mature
at end of whatever time period and we wan money, where
you get money from ?? Please give me simple answer - no
fancy talk please.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 16:13)

Bob ( 14:34 ) : With manufacturing improvements and the
current ease of producing precious metal trinkets; I am
confident that jewelers can accept a smaller mark-up and
still be very profitable.
Price is always a factor, but with the existing mark-ups,
a healthy gold price increase will not effect their
bottom line.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 16:15)
to Bob
Maybe one of the Astrologers in this group can provide an explanation on who was in conjunction with what to cause you to post in this arena such controversial theories? It takes ironclad cojones to put forward ideas like yours in here! Having said that I think you presented some valid points worthy of consideration.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 16:15)
@4 U
LONDON, June 19 ( Reuter ) - Precious metal prices were mainly firmer on Thursday afternoon after short covering rallies lifted them from overnight lows, dealers said.

Most of the action came in the platinum group metals ( PGMs ) , where a rally was sparked by borrowing believed to be from the Far East earlier in the day.

``That made people nervous and sparked some short covering. Apart from that, the sell-off yesterday was probably slightly overdone,'' one dealer said.

``Silver is also a bit firmer, which is giving supprt,'' the dealer added.

Gold was fixed at $340.20 per ounce, just five cents above the morning level and compared with $341.60 previously. Comex August gold was a dollar firmer at $342.00.

Late on Wednesday, the Belgian government announced a proposal to sell 26 tonnes a year of its gold reserves in the form of commemorative coins over five years, probably beginning in 1999, if parliamentary permission was secured.

Dealers said the reaction of New York demonstrated the current market frailties over the threat of central bank sales, where fear was more significant than substance, according to one market observer.

``It's not a big deal but it is another blow to market sentiment,'' a dealer said.

Belgium has run down its gold reserves by around 733 tonnes since 1989 to around 596 tonnes currently.

The Hong Kong and Tokyo markets were also easier on the Belgian news but rallied on short covering after the market found support around $340.00.

The dollar slipped back under 1.73 marks after rallying on a below-forecast trade gap for April.

A firmer silver price also gave some support across the complex, dealers said.

It was indicated at $4.79/$4.91, having recovered almost all the losses accumulated on Wednesday afternoon when funds abandoned a rally attempt.

Dealers noted that Russian officials have said first deliveries of palladium were due to begin tomorrow.

``We will have to wait and see but deliveries in early July have been discounted into the price. When they finally start, the market reaction could be an anticlimax,'' one dealer said.

Platinum was $7.00 firmer at $414.50/$419.50 and palladium was up $9.50 at $201.00/$206.00

10:55 06-19-97

(Thu Jun 19 1997 16:28)
@monetize the debt
I recently read in one of the Washington Letters that I get that the new inflation indexed bonds are becoming very popular. This is interesting since we know that, "official statistics are manipulated", to quote Martin Armstrong of PEI when refering to the inflation rate. Apparently someone is worried that the treasury will monetize the debt, i.e. print more money, thus they are buying these bonds. I think they are failing to realize is that no matter what the real inflation rate is, the government now has an incentive to keep the official inflation rate low through manipulation of the inflation statistics. This keeps relative interest on these bonds low. Thus these inflation indexed bonds are nothing more than a marketing gimick. Also one must now operate on the premise that the inflation data is worthless. Anyone looking for inflation data that is going to help gold is not going to find it, unless it comes from some reputable independent institution. The government still has the ability to print money to pay off its debt, and keep everyone believing that inflation is low. This all will ultimately lead to something very ugly. I'm just not so sure how it will play out. Alright guys, shot holes in this theory.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 16:29)
Spud Master: For the record, the book said that the SDI technology being used are particle beams which interfere with their navigation and propulsion systems. Apparently this will also happen if you zap them with a high power radar. Corso was refering to classified satellite based systems I believe and not ground based systems.

I totally agree with you that THAAD appears to be a joke - although if it keeps being funded it's deplorable sucess record may be disinformation to keep the Russians calm....

(Thu Jun 19 1997 16:34)
Bob : "In post-modern history the US had solifified its global dominace after WWII and then again in the Information Age that rapidly evolved after great strides thereafter. The US greenback superseeded Sterling as the world currency during the mid-20th century."

History will record the Twentieth century as the American century and US contnues to hold the largest gold reserve in the western world, despite having gone off the gold standard in 1973.

I have heard it said that history will record the Twentyfirst century as the Chinese century. China CB is also the world's largest buyer of physical gold. Seems they are aiming to build up a reserve bigger than the US. Once that happens, a hat in hand visit by Greenspan would no longer be neccessary, because then the Chinese money would have replaced the dollar as the world' reserve currency.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 16:38)
@Eldorado....99.9% of the world dosen't care about paper debt
Goldbugs tend to overstate the significance of paper debt in general and US per capita debt in particular. Debt must be referenced in context of the system that creates and sanctions it. US debt, in its broadest sense, has been monetized as the world's currency ( currency + debt securities ) .

It is careless to use empirical per capita debt comparisons out of context ( global monitisation ) . If US per capita debt were relevant then inflation in the US would be materially rising and the US greenback + debt securities would suffer accordingly on world markets. ( Notwithstanding conspiracy theories that abound here. )

Agree ?

US per capita debt stats are irrelevant simply because they exclude consideration of the "world's" population that demands and exploits the value of US Debt. In other words, the denominator is way off the mark.

The big picture is that very few people on this planet care much about debt as long as inflation is low, interest rates are low, and economic growth exceeds debt service.

Some people on this thread are living back in the 1973-83 post-Nam fallout- Oil Crisis - Stagflation mindset that had engrained a habit of thinking about debt and inflation much as our parents thought about the great depression.

The fear of inflation engendered by recent inflationary history had inspired govt "deficit" reduction programs. For example, Canada has had a declining govt deficit over the past ten or so years after being cited as the worst spendthrift basketcase amoung G7 for many years running.

Times have changed and although govt debt is certainly increasing govt deficit spending is in remission and real economic growth tends to absorb debt financing. Afterall, "real" growth implies that debt/inflation is in check. As long as material real growth continues in the world's economic engine ( USA ) all of us 'proxy' US citizens will continue to support the greenback and US debt as the common world currrency. Furthermore, as long as the US economy outperforms Japan+Germany the world will continue to back the greenback + US debt.

Perhaps the best evidence in support of the US world dominace theory is the scale of EuroDollar and foreign denominated US debt - both, by definition, held outside the US by foreigners ( or, as I suggest, proxy US citizens ) .


Big Cheif Gold Bull
(Thu Jun 19 1997 16:38)

Bob: You likum greenback's but Mr. Moto, him likum
Me say, big Uncle must printum more confiscation
certificates and use_um generated greenbacks to buyum
Goldum and Silver. This_um good deal, likum one he
pulled on Indian.
He mu_sum act before Mr. Moto.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 16:40)
Bob (@...Gold Fundametals 101):
Bob: I can think of at least 50-60 studies, reports and analysis to refute your point of view and interpretation of gold's history. But my time limits me to just point out one to you. May I respectfully refer you to Alan Greenspan's considered opinion - before he was forced to quell his Gold Standard reasoning and logic when he donned the Fed Chairman's cap. You can read it in its entirety by clicking the green banner entitled "Fed-WATCH, Alan Greenspan" - on the Gold Digest page at:

In case you are not inclined to read Greenspans complete support of GOLD, here is a very brief idea of the Fed Chairmans view of the noble metal:

"The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists ( government bureaucrats ) to use the banking system as an unlimited expansion of credit. In the absence of the Gold Standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation... Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process." -- Alan Greenspan.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 16:44)
With more than $5 billion pouring into the mutual fund reservoir weekly, the Dam will burst. See June 16, 1997 The Coming RUN on Mutual Funds.:

(Thu Jun 19 1997 16:50)
@NJ...agree but I probably won't live long enough to see it happen
I had posted in past that I also believed the Chinese Yaun would become a world currency in Century 21. Western capitalism is fueling Chinese growth. It is a matter of time before the power of the Chinese People becomes the Power of the World Market - much as the US population ( melting pot ) and its work ethic had conquered European economic dominace in the 20th century.


(Thu Jun 19 1997 17:12)
@..Voronsky's 50-60 studies...action counts more than words
There is an old saying: "Deeds are better than words." The US still owns its gold reserve but it leverages a greater mass of debt. If Greenspan was consistent with his faith in the gold standard as a defense against inflation he should encourage Treasury to increase its gold holding in relation to the size of US monitised Debt. Otherwise his words remain a hollow testimony to the passing of the gold standard.

Again, ( 50-60 ) studies - much like the academic paper that recently recommended US Treasury sell its gold inventory, are valued in relation to the extent the authors may move decision-makers to act or otherwise effect market prices.

I don't recall any major gold price change - up or down - from any article or study. I wonder if any of the studies you refer to have had a material on the market. I question whether these studies really can come close to refutting the message I bring: gold price is determined more by its commodity value than its declining use as a monetary reserve

My message is supported by Mr. Market over the long-term: gold has been in a downward funk since the $850 mark.


(Thu Jun 19 1997 17:14)
Bob - I was pleased to fire up the computer and see you mentioning Century 21 as I work with them as an Independant Real Estate Sales Rep in the Toronto, Ontario region. If anyone would like to invest in their future and make much GOLD at the same time, investing in real estate in this area is almost a sure thing. We have had a price slump for 7 years and we are finally rising from the ashes. In other words we are at the bottom and going UP! This is not just Mooney spewing off at the mouth again, the tide has turned in this area and, an article in Canada's business paper, The Globe and Mail, this past Saturday, said exactly what I'm telling you now and, that it is the time to get into investment property in Toronto. In addition, Americans get an unbelieveably good deal due to the fact that they get 140% on the exchange rate right now and this should correct in the coming years to the point of giving an additional currency induced 10-20% profit on the investment at cash-out time! Anyone interested in a real estate investment in Ontario, at this time, feel free to e-mail me. ( Couldn't resist, Bart, as he mentioned Century 21. Last time til at least August. I promise! )

(Thu Jun 19 1997 17:28)
Bob - BTW - Your blanket statement that, "much as the US population ( melting pot ) and its work ethic had conquered European economic dominace in the 20th century.", assumes many things and can be argued from MANY different angles. You should either: 1 ) support such a blanket statement with many supporting facts or, 2 ) narrow the statement down to a more definitive area of argument OR, 3 ) you should use the Benjamin Franklin method of arguement.
All: You have no doubt noticed my recent use of the semi-colon in response to one of our main participant's love of same.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 17:31)
Gold as a Portfolio Diversifier
BOB: Well-stated. My hat is off to you.

In an economic analysis, gold's price, as you are more aware than I, is determined by a number of factors including: mine production, fabrication demand, and recovery scrap. Much greater influence is exerted by trends in central bank sales. But most important of all are trends in investment demand.

Some of the more important reasons investors buy gold are for an inflation hedge, as a commodity, as a currency hedge, or as a portfolio diversification.

Since it is in gold's role as a portfolio diversifier that I hopefully look for a driver of price, I would indeed appreciate your view, however brief, on this outlook; particularly bearing in mind the divergence of historic relative value between gold and stock equities, expected attendant risks and equity volitility normally encountered at market tops, and, since I agree that axiomatically the dollar is the "money" of choice, expected swings in the value of the dollar rising from international capital flow - which is now so heavily concentrated toward the US, brought about by the EMU and increasing economic strength of Japan, Germany and other G7 countries.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 17:33)
@ Mr. Moto and Jack...the easy one first
Mr. Moto: Where do they get the money to pay for the bonds ? The govt
buys paper and ink and prints a nice design that looks exactly like US Dollars ( signature, pictures, serial number, security ink, etc. ) . This paper is exchanged for the paper and ink design of the US govt debt held by the investor. Simple. Beautiful. It works all the time !

Jack: I am no jewellry expert. I never assayed or weighed my gold jewelry and I don't think many outside of India/SE Asia are overly concerned about the authenticity of the gold content stamped inside rings or on the back of gold ornaments. Often the gold content is suplanted by more expnsive gems or diamond on the piece so it is secondary in value to ( say ) the diamond or gem or ( indeed ) the art craftmanship itself.

Jewellry prices are inelastic. If gold goes up jewellers reduce the gold content or raise prices for new product based on average cost and price goods accordingly. ( Remember, there are gold trading factors to consider in the cost of jewellry: gold futures buying and selling programs tend to stabalise manufacturers costs over time so current jewellry prices may or may not reflect current gold prices. )


(Thu Jun 19 1997 17:35)
Revision (update especially after 1980)

I think that Mr Greenspan made a BOO BOO?
What his famous words should have been; are:
The abandoment of the gold standard mnade it possible for
[banking system] to use the welfare statists ( corrupt
government officials ) to nominate the taxpayer to pay for
the unlimited expansion of credit.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 17:37)
Glenn: Something strange appears to be happening at the comex. The other day I called my broker and asked for a quote on dec silver. The market had been open over an hour and he said there had been no trades yet. Dec silver has been hard to buy. I notice there are only four months trading in silver! Only four months! A couple years ago there were twelve. About a year ago there were eight. The way we are going, soon there will be but one month perhaps, spot. Where are all the producers scalping their hedges? Looks like the same thing is happening in gold. Can you shed some light on this? If I did not know better I might think someone is afraid of the future.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 17:39)
Century 22
Mooney: Actually you used the colon ( : ) . Your semi-colon ( ; ) needs more work.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 17:42)
@ Mooney...forest for the trees
A subordinate clause that has little significance to my thesis need not be researched and proven beyond doubt. Take it or leave it. You missed the forest by concentrating on a one nominal tree.

Spud Master
(Thu Jun 19 1997 17:46)
Not even close.
GFD: Unfortunately, particle-beam technology pre-dates the Roswell crash ( circa 1946 ) by many years,i.e. Lawrence's cyclotron accellerator circa 1936. The French and British also had their own variations of particle accelerators. Granted, these were then used for atomic research, but it doesn't take many smarts to figure out their weapon potential. By the way, such charged particle weapons are useless in space as the beams both spread from coulombic forces, and wriggle like hell from interaction with the Earth's magnetic field. For exoatmospheric beam weapon you must use a neutral partical beam - ala "White Horse" or "Chair Heritage". This too is no great revelation, although packaging & powering is a problem. As for high-powered microwaves, well, this predates Roswell crash EVEN further back in time - Nikola Tesla circa 1900s, or if you need something closer, the British "Home Chain" radars of 1930s. Nope. If'n aliens crashed with technology - it'd likely knock our socks off.


(Thu Jun 19 1997 17:59)
@The Casino

RJ: In a moment of irrational exuberance, I almost
took you up on "$335 a half dozen times". Glad I
didn't now! Just curious, what are your thoughts on
how high gold will go in the next three to five
years? Thanks.

Big Chief Gold Bull
(Thu Jun 19 1997 18:01)
Spelling error

How: Me spellum my name wrongum, US schollum no goodum.

Spud Master
(Thu Jun 19 1997 18:08)
Correction: "Chair Heritage" was an E-beam weapon - USN - 'sposed to throw bolts of lightening. "White Horse" was indeed a neutral hydrogen beam accelerator, formerly known as "Sipapu" ( some one versed in Hopi/Navaho mythology feel free to correct the spelling ) .

ps - Arden - you out there? What's going on in the Comex wharehouses?

(Thu Jun 19 1997 18:12)
@....Vieserre (Thanks)
I read your complex question but must admit that I could not distill or calculate the divergent rythmns and harmonic overtones presented to score and adequate response in short order.

It seems that your question focus is too granular - too fine - and, as such, the answer would be subject to many degrees of statistical ( freedom ) variances to render a speculative result not worth grinding out.

I figuered that the big basic long-term picture is my province while the short-term ( short-sighted ) micro-dynamic view is best left for others with greater depth and insight.


(Thu Jun 19 1997 18:14)
BOB, NJ and All: Just suppose the selling of gold by European CB's is encouraged ( along with their desperate desire for euro and their desperate budgets ) by US even to the extent of a study saying, "Well maybe we will too!". So Europe sells some, revalues some, and whoops, gee we forgot to sell, revalue any of ours. If there will be an Euro, wouldn't this little sleight of hand help keep the US$ as the reserve currency of the world? The Euro and the Yuan will be attempting to compete with, if not overthrow, the reserve currency status of the US dollar. The competition between these trading blocks, Asia, US and Europe is what it is about in the future. We have an advantage in our reserve currency status the other two would like. This may also explain some of the inordinate pressure on gold prices. I'm no seer so commments are welcome.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 18:14)
Spud Master: Actually, particle beams also go back to Mr. Telsa and 1906 as well - a fact mentioned by Mr Corso in his book. Apparently Telsa's "death ray" was some form of particle beam. But I don't understand your point. Are you saying that because the Brits had radar in the 30's that they can't be used as weapons???

Rightly or wrongly what Mr Corso is saying is that particle beams and high energy radar affect their propulsion and navigation technology in a bad way. The craft he is familar with use standing magnetic waves to create gravity distortions. They basically loose power when zapped the right way, or so he says.

Do not assume that just because a civilization is advanced that it is not arrogant or quick to adapt to changes. They may not believe that the nitwits on earth would have something that could pose a threat to them. It would not be the first time it happened - particularly on earth!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 18:22)
@ Roebear...certainly possible
You describe a Gold Trap where everyone sells their gold except the US and then the US revalues its gold to market and effectively reverts to a gold standard to defend the US Dollar against any possible foreign competitor: Yaun, YEN, or ECU.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 18:23)
Telsa = Tesla. I forgot to mention that I suspect that "White Horse" was one of the programs that Mr Corso was indirectly refering to... On a separate note Los Alamos recently announced that they had discovered a technique to create an intense self focusing laser beam that could burn through clouds. This is different than adaptive optics but rather depends on a newly discovered phenomena based on power intensity ( using a beam compressed into very short pulses ) . Sounds like quite the breakthrough although they had not yet seen if it scales up to weapons grade power. Immediate applications would be for things like all weather lidar, etc.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 18:27)
Bob, Roebear: I have wondered about this too. However, it may be simply that any sales would have to be cleared through congress and the political climate is not favorable yet. They may be waiting until everyone else sells of their gold and then approaches congress. Someone posted here that congress passed a law prohibiting sale of gold reserves.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 18:28)
An Overtone Question
BOB: Again, well-stated. As you implied a considered response to the harmonics of my question, more undertone than substance, is a complex opus with complex flats and sharps making up the fundamental overtone.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 18:30)
Well-reputed Seer asserts gold stocks are as cheap TODAY relative to the market as they were in the early 1970s. See Coles Market Insights - Click RELOAD:

JT Rourke
(Thu Jun 19 1997 18:41)
Steve Puetz -

"The richest 1 percent of the population owns 42 percent of the wealth, more than the bottom 90 percent. In 1976, the wealthiest 1 percent owned 19
percent of the wealth. So we've seen the upper 1 percent more than double the percentage of the wealth in this country that they own.... Between 1983
and 1989, 62 percent of the increased wealth in this country went to the richest 1 percent.... the middle class continues to shrink.... during the past
twenty years, we have seen a decline in wages or stagnation for 80 percent of all American families, while the people on top have never had it so good.
Twenty years ago, American workers were the best-compensated in the world. Today, we rank thirteenth in the world."

- Congressman Bernard Sanders ( VT )

(Thu Jun 19 1997 18:43)
The Kat's of Nine Tails.

Wonder what will come out of Denver this weekend?
Actually the G-7 is soon to become "The Summit of Eight",
as Russia will soon become a member.
China with Hong Kong's riches should also become a member
I propose a new handle for the esteemed group "The Kat's
of Nine Tails".
It can be used to whip their respective citizenries into
The question is: Will they have nine lives?

(Thu Jun 19 1997 18:49)
Polarbear -@ June 18 @ 4:02 - Congrats regarding - "I recently
married a cute little Japanese goldbug!" - BUT REALLY! - I thought there was some kind of laws in the U.S. aimed at making sure no one could commit sacrilege by marrying a bug!
Also like to mention that it is not only Asians that have thought of gold and Silver as money fo the last 4,000 years but Europeans as well.
Mike Sheller @ June 18 @ 7:08 - Your thoughts at this time were not completed . This post needs to be expanded on. - Mooney, teacher AND student!
Vieserre @June 18 @ 7:19 - A KEEPER!
Front - Louis says - the chart sucks!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 18:50)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Bob A: See Yardeni's page at Great charts.

Bob: What do you see as the consequences -- or risks -- of having *any currency* serve as the world's defacto reserve of value? In other words, what "reserve of value" will remain if the dollar runs into trouble and the CBs have sold off all their gold? When and if that day comes, the world won't necessarily have another currency available that'll be able to fill the dollar's shoes. It seems to me that we are moving toward a world where the very concept of "reserve of value" itself is declared obsolete and unnecessary. I'm just old fashioned, I guess. Incidentally, I enjoy your posts immensely. They are well-reasoned and a not-so-easily-ignored thorn in any goldbug's thorax. Ouch!

LSteve: Very difficult to hide inflation from consumers . . . I don't claim it's a hole in your theory -- just one that requires explanation.

Spud Master
(Thu Jun 19 1997 18:55)
Tesla, a true genius
Yes, shame on me. Nikola Tesla.


(Thu Jun 19 1997 18:57)
Time to sell?
The following six events have taken place over the last few months I wonder if they are related.

o Greenspan warns of world-wide systemic risk in almost every speech.
o IMF warns of world-wide systemic risk.
o BIS warns of world-wide systemic risk.
o Elite of the world meet in private.
o G-7 is studying world-wide systemic risk now.
o Central banks threaten to sell all their gold.

Long Time Lurker
(Thu Jun 19 1997 19:01)

bw: It seems that things may be coming to a head.
Perhaps BT is for real after all.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 19:01)
EB ( 13:44 ) Re: Dec calls with $5 increments. I'll check into it.

BW ( 17:37 ) Re: Dec Silver. - Don't bother trading Dec silver futures contracts. You can trade Dec Calls and puts, that's ok. The volume and liquidity is not that great and you will no doupt buy and sell before the Sept contact expires. As far as quotes on dec Silver the silver ring will always have a "Bid" and "Ask" for you. In Gold the spread for the active month, Aug is $0.10 to $0.20 ( ie - .10 bid / at .20 ) where the spread for the Dec contract is $0.40 ( ie. - .10 bid / at .50 ) In all cases you should buy the active month.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 19:19)
Venerable veteran market maven shares his keen insights on markets & Bill Gates losing a billion dollars in ONE DAY - OUCH!. ALL at Gold Digest page:

(Thu Jun 19 1997 19:27)
@ wealth
J.T. Rourke: You give good facts on wealth, but I'm not sure what your point is. Are you implying that the concentration of wealth is somehow causing other US citizens to suffer financially? I might add, most of the recent wealth gains are mearly paper-gains from the booming stock market -- i.e. Gates @ Microsoft, Buffet @ Berkshire-Hathaway. A stock market crash, which is coming, will re-adjust their wealth.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 19:28)
Bob @18:22 ( and Roebear ) ANYTHING is possible, however, the U.S. has not increased its Gold Reserve ( as far as I know AAR ) since the late 60's ( disasterous management ) . In the meanwhile its population has increased substantially and its debt has increased exponentially. France was the ONE country that almost single-handedly forced th U.S. off the Gold Standard in the early 70's by insisting on Gold for U.S. dollars in the late 60's and early 70's. The U.S. did not want to give away all its Gold and so abandoned the Gold Standard. However, they have not increased their hoard at all in the interim and so lies the problem. France, in the meanwhile, seems to be one of the European countries that still remembers the value of Gold. We are discussing possibilities here for the last year or so, but I can't help but agree with most here that things will soon heat up ( we are now in the calm before the storm stage ) and that soon we ( and the world ) will be reading new meaning into Bob's song "The Time's They Are A 'Changing".

Neffer - I had already noticed my colon/semicolon error and discussed same with the Prognosticator ( 1 ) and was going to correct the error, but you beat me to it. Thanks for caring and correcting.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 19:34)
D.A.: Why deflation? Our present monetary system is credit-based -- not currency-based. In the broad sense, inflation means credit-expansion. Deflation implies the opposite -- credit contraction or liquidation. The only severe inflation in recent years has been concentrated in the financial markets -- speculators have been borrowing credit mostly to leveraged their positions in stocks and bonds.

Deflation occurrs when debtors either:

1 ) Voluntarily pay off their debts, or
2 ) Involuntarily do so through bankruptcy or default.

Presently, the rising bankruptcy rate is causing enough deflationary pressures to send the prices of goods and services lower. The only poctect of inflation remains in stocks and bonds.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 19:35)
In a real world I'd say YES there is one heck of a MOTHER of a declining wedge on those there charts...sending long signals LOUD AND CLEAR. ( doesn't anybody see it?? ) .

But these aren't real times...are they? Go BT!



Strad Master
(Thu Jun 19 1997 19:38)
We're not that far apart.
MIKE SHELLER: Thanks for your response. I see no reason for you to have to defend astrology. If you recall, I was drawn into the original discussion to ( in a sense ) defend you and astrology by sharing a theory I formulated that might help bridge the gap between those who fervently believe and those who find it all to be rubbish. I see no reason why there isn't room for both sides to co-exist more peacably. Personally, I straddle the fence as I've found astrology and related endeavours to be alternately helpful and damaging. I can only say that I continue to be a skeptic/agnostic but at the same time wish fervently that such things as astrology be shown to be true. As a Pisces, that's probably part of my nature. Obvioulsy, it takes a master to discover and exploit the full potential that exists in any discipline. As to your mastery of astrology, I have no doubt. Unlike some, I have no problem with you posting astrologically obtained market predictions - especially if they're right.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 19:38)
Glenn - You know I respect your comments big time, but in this case, I must say, that I disagree. Brokers, ( and traders ) , by which you are now surrounded, always have that philosophy - to always trade the active month. Perhaps in a majority of instances this is the correct thing to do , however, I don't think that you can point blank say that, "In all cases you should buy the active month." We could discuss this all night but if you read my comment a couple of times over I think that, in all honesty, you will agree that I have a valid point.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 19:49)
Strad Master - Now that you have a knowledge of Straddles, ( due in good part to Kitcoites questioning you about your Handle ) , I note that you are actually incorporating the language into your posts! AAR, ( At Any Rate, for those that are wondering ) , your recent comment,"Unlike some, I have no problem with you posting astrologically obtained market predictions - especially if they're right.", reminds me of the famous quote, "Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it." --------Will Rogers

(Thu Jun 19 1997 19:55)
Steve - What about the amssive inflation of paper? What happens with it in the deflation?

(Thu Jun 19 1997 19:55)
bw: Excuse me for being slow, but a time to sell what?

(Thu Jun 19 1997 19:57)
Steve - massive, MASSIVE!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 19:57)
@the scene
J.T. Rourke -- Kind of makes one wonder who's going to be paying all that interest on that ever rising pile of debt that the worlds financial system is resting upon, doesn't it!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:00)

Anyone remember how gold did in the winter of '85?
As I recall it went down to about $285. At the
depth of pessimism then, it proceeded to launch into
a bull market which topped out in '87 near $500. In
inflation adjusted dollars, gold is cheaper now than
in early '85. Buy low, sell high.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:02)
@the scene
Gunrunner -- I don't know if anyone has E-mailed you a response, but I'll post here in truth that I really think RJ might have some good numbers and contracts that you might mull over!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:13)
Bob: Your argument is forceful. The earlier post concerning mediums of exchange was excellent. Your view of the future is also well thought out but it seems to me that it is also predicated on assumptions that are not well founded or well supported by the past.

The, precise, medium of exchange, as you pointed out, can vary in both place and time, according to the needs and resources of the society. That isolated societies of the past were able to develop means of exchange that were acceptable within the confines of their time and place but failed in cross cultural exchange for a lack of broader acceptance, is also a given.

I interpret your subsequent line of thought to be as follows: That the post WWII economic history is a reflection of increasing integration of the world's means of production and because the US has been the clear leader of that period, with a currency that has enjoyed worldwide acceptance for the whole of this century, it therefore naturally follows that it should continue to enjoy said status in perpetuity.

I would view it differently: Should the outward expression of our fiscal and monetary profligacy now become, forever and ever, the accepted standard of exchange for the entire world? Will our continuing and overriding desire to better ourselves at the expense of our neighbors find acceptance in the greater world?

Your point relating the stability of a debt base as a function of willing purchasers of that debt is well made. To the extent that willing foreigners are active buyers of US debt they are, in a sense, surrogate citizens. And the expansion of US debt is able to continue unabated. I would assume that these buyers follow the same logical thread as any investor. They view their universe of options, now wider than ever before, and select accordingly. That they should choose to purchase US debt is a reflection of conditions surrounding similar instruments from alternate sources as much as conditions in the US but they have no guarantees, from the US govt or anyone else, that today's investment parameters will be equally valid tomorrow. Nor do they have any assurance that, on the morrow, an alternate source will not be more attractive than the US is today. The international exchange system will remain what it is today; a fluid system of relative values which must monitored on continuing basis, in order to avoid being savaged.

In short, the search for a universally accepted means of exchange to serve a universal ecomomy that includes the "credit/currency" paradigm, would still be referential in nature. It's value would be determined the actions of mortals acting in ways that have often have little to do with, or regard for monetary matters. The average legislator from Little Falls or Burgher from Bavaria, often has little regard for the universal effect of his actions. And therein lies the rub. If said, lofty legislator, can stick it to a matron in Madrid in order to better serve his constituents and remain in power, that is the way it shall be and relative currency values be damned.

Given the political and cultural disharmonies of the world, no medium of exchange will long succeed, IF it has any ties to a particular culture or political agency. It can only succeeed, IMO, if it is neutral and beyond the control of states and their agents. Paper is and will always be an agent of the state. Whether the ultimate medium of exchange is gold, platinum, oil or something so far unnoticed, it must in the end be something that is forever beyond the control of other men acting in concert with force of law.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:17)
George S Cole: Your esteemed opinion is desired ( and missed,been12hrs! ) . After a couple days of unBEARable news, XAU held at 100.60, bullion up and silver up since yesterday. Your take on the market action today...tomorrow?

(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:18)

(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:19)
Bob: One quick addendum: .... A STABLE store of value is too important to leave in the hands of the state and its agents.

Citizen Blutarsky
(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:21)
@Senate Pension City

You guys hear Clinton at the G7 meeting? "America
is the envy of the world." Wow! That is going to
rub a lot of them foreigners the wrong way! What
the heck is that all about?

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:22)
Catchup Ketchup
POORBOYS: I am watching the transiting Uranus Squaring New York Stock Exchsange Venus ( 5 degrees Taurus ) . I have found that degree to historically respond to gold price movements. As far as August 27th, the retrograding Uranus comes back to 5.37 Aquarius, squaring NYSE Venus head-on, & probably putting gold down again, hard. BOB: The Yuan WILL become convertible - Thanks to Chinese gold bullion. It MUST happen. My kid lives in PRC, and I keep telling him & his wife to buy gold, but you can't tell these kids anything! EB: I see the declining wedge! Upside breakout from it is 346.50 basis August. Are we talkin' 'bout the same wedge? STRAD MASTER: You flatter me, but I would not call myself a master astrologer. As far as markets and "predictions" go, I merely ply my no-brainers and hope I'm right. As far as theoretical and philosophical aspects of astrology, I am in constant awe.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:23)
By the Light...
MOONEY: Loved your Will Rogers Quote!

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:31)
Show me the commodity
EARL: Are the foreign holders of US debt "surrogate citizens" or partners of our puppet masters, with the same agenda? I think you answer that when you go on to say "paper is an agent of the state." So true. I agree with you that ultimately, true commodity money must win out. The timing part is where the fun comes in.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:31)
BOB.. I've enjoyed your viewpoint, but must mention some points I think you have overlooked.

The dollar debt will continue to be honored as long as debt holders have faith in the continued good honor ( and existence ) of the US. That is not a given.

1 ) Although the US economy is cruising, it is dependent upon the low interest rates we are enjoying because someone else is willing to buy our debt at low rates. About half of our debt come due within 2 years or less and an international attitude change would have an immediate effect on US interest rates at the next bond auction. This is a well organized policy of Clinton/Rubin to lower budget deficits by lowering interest payments. It is a political move to make him look good ( it has ) but is like buying a second mortgage on your house when you are barely making the first payment. If for any reason there is a doubt about the US making payments, someone may foreclose, one T-bill at a time. Interest rates will go up and the rush to something else will certainly raise the price of gold.

2 ) Our trade deficit adds to the supply of debt someone has to finance. Current political policies of both parties, and solid policy of Clinton/Rubin is to have open trade with anyone who wants to sell. Our trade deficit is still expanding because we are not willing to control our consumerism of cheap foreign products.

3 ) Rough calculations on $5.3 Tril debt at 5% is about $265 bil. As more and more dollars are cycled overseas to foreigners, less and less of the interest payments come back to the treasury as tax. This accelerates the current accounts deficit.

4 ) With our decreasing military budget, we are now at a relative lower position than that of the US on Pearl Harbor day. Our military size is much less than during the Gulf War, and is a major policy of Clinton to reduce the deficit. Once again he looks good.

5 ) We do not have to lose a war; but any doubt of our victory would certainly induce a flight from the dollar. I cannot predict the severity of that flight but it would be substantial. Can you spell Korea, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Bosnia, or Taiwan?

We are living on the edge and the American public has no idea.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:35)
EBN Gold down .70 and Silver down 1 cent...Puetz ( 19:27 ) My oceanfront house+property ain't made of paper...They's real Bro....and the dough came from that damn STOCK MARKET...Am stockin-up on books for my 3 week internet fast and bought "The Sovereign Individual" by Davidson+Rees-Mogg

(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:36)
JT Rourke: That piece was widely known in the late 70s before it even happened. That is, the middle class would be savaged in the years ahead, if we continued to live beyond our means. We did and continue to and it happened, just as predicted. .... Since you offered no additional comment to go with the quote; what was your point?

(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:38)
Blutarsky ( 20:21 ) What did ya expect! ...Clinton is an ASS-HOLE!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:41)
Mike Sheller: Anticipation of timing and the process of its prediction is only fun if the event, ultimately, takes place in our lifetime. Short of that, being beaten with a stick is preferable. IMO. ..... ( :- ) )

(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:43)
@the scene
Earl, Larryn -- Re: Bob; Well said!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:52)
@Mr. Puetz
Steve - Really and truly , I don't get it. If we have a massive deflation . how does the U.S. redeem all those Treasury Bonds OR pay the interest on them, to prevent them being called?

(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:53)
@the scene
Anybody know how a supernova happens? Let's examine it in relevance to how a credit collapse can occur. A normal star, through fusion, turns hydrogen into helium ( credit ) . After a very long time, but depending on the stars size, the hydrogen eventually begins to be used up ( an ever rising bancruptcy ensues ) . Since the stars size was dependent on exothermic release, the star then goes into a collapsing stage which drives the temperature higher ( more and more cheaper credit being required ) . At a critical point, helium begins fusion into heavier elements ( massive inputs of 'money/credit/'inflation'' into the system ) . Now the distinction between nova and supernova, mainly dependent on the stars mass/size. A smaller star at this point generates enough heat at this time where it might only blow off an outer shell of itself and then eventually turn into shell of its former self. ( We know of a few countries like this ) . A supernova though goes through a much more 'glamorous' destruction. As it falls in upon itself, the heavy metals are born, even unto uranium, eventually reaching a point in heat and compression ( the maximum of paper that the system can absorb ) that gravity cannot contain its explosive nature. It comes to the ultimate point of containment and then lets go into the mo

(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:55)
@the scene
Anybody know how a supernova happens? Let's examine it in relevance to how a credit collapse can occur. A normal star, through fusion, turns hydrogen into helium ( credit ) . After a very long time, but depending on the stars size, the hydrogen eventually begins to be used up ( an ever rising bancruptcy ensues ) . Since the stars size was dependent on exothermic release, the star then goes into a collapsing stage which drives the temperature higher ( more and more cheaper credit being required ) . At a critical point, helium begins fusion into heavier elements ( massive inputs of 'money/credit/'inflation'' into the system ) . Now the distinction between nova and supernova, mainly dependent on the stars mass/size. A smaller star at this point generates enough heat at this time where it might only blow off an outer shell of itself and then eventually turn into shell of its former self. ( We know of a few countries like this ) . A supernova though goes through a much more 'glamorous' destruction. As it falls in upon itself, the heavy metals are born, even unto uranium, eventually reaching a point in heat and compression ( the maximum of paper that the system can absorb ) that gravity cannot contain its explosive nature. It comes to the ultimate point of containment and then lets go into the mo

(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:56)
@the scene
Guess something within the ether-system can only handle so many words. Here's the rest:

It comes to the ultimate point of containment and then lets go into the most massive explosion/'deflation' that we currently know of ( totally worthless paper ) ! Time span for all this from point of initial collapse? From days to months. Let me simply ask how much 'gravity/containment' the governments can provide!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 20:59)
Mooney: Your earlier post injected an element of crass commercialism into this august gathering. Fortunately, through no conscious effort on your part ( :- ) ) ..... it was also redeemed by pointing out that markets often do rise from a long term bottom. I therefore assume that your real estate comments were no more than a parable related to the gold market. .... The foregoing was done with no conscious effort on my part. ( :- ) ) ... BTW, I've long considered 'one liners' to be my exclusive province. It's irritating to be one upped. Especially with the 'historian line'. That was a good one.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 21:02)
Mike - If you're holding enough Gold yu'll like it even better when you hear the famous refrain, "Louis,Louis, Louiieiii!
All- In addition to Earl's considered reasonings, the reason that our bubble must fall of its own weight is that for over 25 years now over 70% of the North American working population has not been pulling their weight, but living off the fat of the land. This too shall pass.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 21:06)
@the wedge
That's the wedge...isn't she a MOTHER?!!?



(Thu Jun 19 1997 21:08)
@ Systemic Risk
BW: I think you're right. Systemic risk is the soon-to-be catch-word. Systemic risk is what leading organizations have labeled the threat of a complete breakdown of our financial system. I call it a "Total Collapse" -- the name of my new book.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 21:11)
@Delta House

TED 20:38. Agreed he is an a**ho**. But still, that
was a slap in the face to the other G7 members.
Sounds like he is gloating.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 21:11)
America is falling in std of living now, as early mentioned, down to 13th. Wealth differential increasing. As J. Goebbels said the bigger the lie the more likely it will believed. Congrats to our own study of history!!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 21:13)

(Thu Jun 19 1997 21:19)
Blutarsky: I agree,it was a total slap in the face and did you see his body language while he spoke...digusting!...That is what "the ugly American" image is all about...Again,makes me proud to have spent Clinton's entire reign outside the USA....

(Thu Jun 19 1997 21:22)
ALL... Leaving early am for a few days on the Atlantic coast of Florida and then trek over to the Gulf of Mexico for a few....Will have at least some of the time with internet access.....

(Thu Jun 19 1997 21:24)
Bob - Although I don't disagree with your theory that China may one day become THE leading economic force in the world, ( although I do think that this may be a lot further down the road than some here envisage ) , I still don't totally agree with your previous statement that the "US population ( melting pot ) and its work ethic had conquered European economic dominace in the 20th century." - conquered as in: To gain by force; to vanquish: to subjugate. We disagree - don't worry about it. C'est la Vie!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 21:25)
nailz -- Either coast will treat you right. Therefore Enjoy twice!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 21:29)
@ Inflation/Deflation Debate
Mooney: In a credit-based monetary system, we must distinguish between the "par value" of a bond or credit-market instrument and the "market value" of the instrument. In a credit deflation, both new-buyers and existing-holders of the debt instruments loose confidence in the debt, the economy, and the financial system.

They respond by drastically lowering the price of the bonds and other financial paper. Treasury Bonds, which trade at 105 today, may deflate to as low as 30 in a financial collapse. The same is true of mortgage pools, credit-card pools, and other packaged securities. The Dow may fall from the present 7800 to as low as 300.

Right now, the "market value" of all stocks and bonds in the United States is presently something like $25 trillion. If the markets collapse as I expect, in 3-to-5 years, the "market value" of these securities may be something like $5 trillion. Par-value will be meaningless to bonds. If people need cash, they must sell at the market.

When investors loose confidence in a system, the market value of the credit instruments of that system collapse in value. If the government tries to issue more debt instruments to cover its expanses, confidence is further shattered, and the market value of existing debt instruments will collapse even further in the hole. At some point in a credit-system, further debt creation becomes self-defeating, and leads to further violent deflation of existing credit instruments.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 21:38)
@Believing In Self Sufficiency

TED 21:19--Amen.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 21:39)
@ The collapse: How quickly???
Eldorado: That is the only thing I'm not sure. You suggest the whole monetary system could collapse within a few months time. I believe it may stretch out over a few years time. However, I don't dismiss the fact that there's a good possibility that your scenario will be right. Under your scenario, there will be little time to move out of paper, buy gold and silver coins, and then get delivery of them. You'll either have to be in the metals, or be S.O.L.!!!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 21:47)
@the system
Puetz -- There is no way that I can know a timing scenario nor how long it might be 'till fait accompli. What I would really like to know is how it might possibly be defused! Any ideas?

(Thu Jun 19 1997 21:49)
Ted, Blutarsky: Didn't see Clinton's speech. Can't stand to watch the man. But speaking of his body language: Pure Mussolini.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 21:54)
Canada @ Basketcase
BOB June 19 @ 16:38 Your statement " Canada worst spendthrift
basketcase amoung G7 " This Canadian, considers your reference,
as an example of : figures can lie, and lier's can figure.
Disinformation is effective eh!

Another view point, is offered, and Background overview, of
CANADA, for-your-information. ( FYI ) I hope it makes a difference
in your views. Give consideration, limited Canadian history, is
available to Canadians, unfortunately, a result of design, by others.

In the Second World War, unlike the First, the dominion ( Canada ) tried
to cover a high proportion of outlays from taxation. In 1939 the
federal deficit, on the national accounts basis, was $2 million; in
1944 and 1945 it was $1.9 BILLION. In the course of the war, from the
end of 1938 to the end of 1945, the Dominion raised $15.7 billion from
the sale of securities, and its net debt, after allowing for some
refunding of old loans, rose from $3.6 billion to $17.9 billion.

The Bank of Canada in 1935, could buy Dominion bonds and issue its
own notes. During the war the Bank bought $1.7 billion of Dominion
bonds and issued $0.8 billion of extra currency, *monetizing* barely
6 % of the new Dominion debt. The Canadian public therefore seems to
have bought about $9 billion something like 63 % of the total new Dominion debt, which amounted to $14.3 billion.

To supply itself with money for spending within Canada, the Dominion
government could tax,borrow,or,in the last resort, sell its bonds to
the Bank of Canada. The Ottawa authorities did not want to borrow
in the American Market, and it was far from clear, especially in 1939-40
just how the market would have received a new Canadian loan.

The exchange rate, which had been floating since 1929, was pegged at
90 American cents to the Canadian dollar, plus or minus a small margin
which was meant to cover the Foreign Exchange Control Board's operating
costs. In 1940 Canada ran a very large deficit with the United States.
The situation was saved only because the United Kingdom agreed to
supply Canada with $248 million in GOLD and American dollars.

In April 1941, in the Hyde Park Agreement, The United States committed itself to make substantial purchases of defence-related materials in
Canada; LEND-LEASE American policy was to require the recipients of
LEND-LEASE to divest themselves of all, or substantially all, their
American assets; Canada's dollar problem was her production for Britain

On 29 April 1941 the minister of finance announced that Canada would not allow a shortage of Canadian dollars to impede Britains procurements in
Canada. 1943-5, 85 % of Canada's mutual aid went to the United Kingdom
and all the rest to other sterling area countries.

Bottom water is proverbially said to be muddy water.So it was to prove
in wartime Canada.In 1943-4-5 Britain earned large amounts of Canadian
dollars through the overseas outlay of the Canadian government. In 1942
Canada *gave* a Billion dollars and lent another $700 million. Britain
paid Canadian Army, and billed the Canadian Government.

Canada was between a rock and a hard place, colony of Britain, USofA
War Agreements,Canada had to agree to all conditions to assist Britain.
Canada was subjected to agree to all matters to get the war won.
External Affairs, was under the total control of the USofA forces.

In the summer of 1944, at the International Monetary Conference at
Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, which resulted in the International
Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, later known as the World Bank. Canada, agreed to all
matters, or better said, EXTERNAL AFFAIRS, agreed to all matters.

1981-3 recession, was imported into Canada via International Bankers,
the Second World War was the begining, and the end, for made in Canada economic policies. Had the Canadian People known what EXTERNAL AFFAIRS was doing, maybe, Canada would be in more economic control, maybe !

KINDNESS and CONSIDERATION is a WEEKNESS. To be sure, especially in regards to the sacrifices of men and material, and money, as regarding
the national pride, in assisting, and winning, the Second World War.

Could the Canadian people know, then, and now, that other forces, were
at work to direct our country into the hands of International Bankers ?
Canada, had built railroads, canals, highways, telegraph, and settled
a vast and broad land, before 1945, with a small population to boot.

Yes, it can be said Canada in 1997 is an economic basketcase, certainly,
not the cause, and result, of the Canadian people. But, by others.

To post this Canadians remarks, is likely a wasted effort, but, maybe just maybe, someone might be interested, Canadians, it seems, follow
a very simple set of rules, BE QUIET - CONSUME - and - DIE. They do
not want to face reality, thus they drift through life, living and
sustaining, a total illusion.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 22:11)
First time here. Got recommended here by a brother. Pardon my handle, but I finally gave up trying to find one on AOL that didn't contain a number. Started looking through my Remington catalog and looking at shotgun shells, came across sabot slugs. I said, "what the hell" and gave it a try. It worked, and thus my handle. A beaut, ain't it? Just call me sabot, OK?

Peeking? cruising? Surfing? I am not particularly knowledgable about the slang, but at least peering back on the daily happenings or posts, I find a marvelous abundance of diverse opinions and factual materials. Even some science type material! Wow. If you all don't mind, perhaps I'll stick around and put together some thoughts of my own to add to all of yours.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 22:21)

Sabot: Good evening. Where do you think gold will
go in US Dollars, in the next 6 months?

(Thu Jun 19 1997 22:24)
6pak: Factored for personal opinion, there was still a lot of good stuff in that post. I enjoyed it and gained some understanding of the past as well. Thanks.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 22:24)


( Regarding our ongoing discussion of Japanese desire for platinum )

Sorry for the delay in getting you a good explanation for the Japanese word SHIBUI. Just moved yesterday and it took me hours and hours to find all the pieces to get my computer hooked back up.

One of my better dictionaries defines SHIBUI as "subdued, refined, tasteful," as in "My teacher is wearing a "tasteful" tie.

My wife and I discussed SHIBUI, and the first word out of her mouth when I asked what SHIBUI means was "dandy".

I then asked her why she thought Japanese like platinum more than gold, and she had some thoughts I hadn't considered before.

1 ) . PLATINUM IS MORE EXPENSIVE THAN GOLD. The Japanese really have a thing for quality, and will routinely buy the most expensive item when shopping, because it's "the best".

2 ) . PLATINUM LASTS LONGER. I hadn't really considered this one, but it seems like a very valid point. Although you can substitute white gold for platinum, it isn't nearly as strong and won't hold up as well. In addition, it's nice to know that platinum, and not its weaker cousin, is holding that big rock in place!

3 ) . PLATINUM'S COLOR LOOKS BETTER ON ASIAN SKIN. Some westerners would disagree with this, but this IS a common opinion here in Japan.

4. PLATINUM IS HIGHLY ADVERTISED AS THE METAL OF CHOICE. The Japanese are constantly being exposed to advertising of platinumTV, magazines, newspapers etc.

Hope this helps. Feel free to fire my way any more questions I can help with.

PS. What's with the price of BLYVOORS? Ouch!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 22:26)
Nicely Done
EARL: Your 20:13. Well put. Thank you.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 22:44)
Good Evening Y'all. For those of you looking for yet another indicator to determine the trend in general equities, I am working on one called the Inger Letter Confusion Index. Essentially, one divides the parentheses per paragraph in each letter and then plot the average on logrithmic graph paper. When the ratio in the current letter is above the 5 letter moving average the general forecast can be called into question, and if the last 5 letter moving average is already above the ten letter moving average then I would be inclined to consider this to be indicative of a full scale "BS Reversal" where one may be inclined to take the exact opposite course of action ( which may be kind of hard to determine as the reader is likely to be completely confused, which may actually be the intended point )

Anyhow, this is just one more tool for your chest in predicting the stock market. More to follow....

(Thu Jun 19 1997 22:47)
JT Rourke (wealth): Thu Jun 19 1997 18:41
JT Rourke - I do admire your for giving the source for the quote by
Congressman Bernard Sanders ( VT ) . Is there a reason you left out the party affiliation? Could he be a Democrat. Has he voted for ever larger government? I have heard similar number before. I have also seen these numbers debunked. I do not believe that the top 1% owns 42% of the country. I think this is nothing but class envy by a big government spender trying to collect more taxes. I know you quoted those numbers, do you believe them? Can you name a time when the standard of living for all Americans has been better? We are the most prosperous country, peopled by the most prosperous citizens that this world has ever seen. I will keep my eye out for some contradiction numbers and, I too, will quote a source. My guy will probably be just as impeachable though. I very rarely believe anything that come out a politicians mouth. I know they all lie, because their lips...... Oh well, you know the rest.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 22:51)
Blutarsky ( 21:38 ) Nice to hear someone else believes in self sufficiency might come in handy!....oh, by the way, I really miss John Belushi.....

(Thu Jun 19 1997 22:53)
I believe
Geff - I am very exited about this new system of yours, I feel a fool for not seeing it before. Just one question.... Do spaces count as letters also? You know, like in typing class? Please, before I bet the farm with this new forecast method, I've got to be sure I understand is completely.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 22:55)
Polarbear- Paul Sarnoff put out a FAX to sell his two SA stocks
Blyvoors and Driefontein based on pure ignorance. If he was gona put out a sell maybe he should have done it before they hit rock bottom.
I will bet you he did not own one share. I have never seen Bishop say
to sell, he just gives the info and it is up to you to descide what to do. This action by Sarnoff is very poor, nobody wins.

Did we bounce offa $340 again or did we bounce offa $340 again!!

Tally Ho

(Thu Jun 19 1997 22:57)
@New England
BOB: your analysis is correct and I think represents the current situation with gold. However, you assume no change ie US dominance and confidence continues. I think this is why we constantly here why the econ is so great and Clinton talks of us being the envy of the world. On the surface this looks true just as the USSR looked good on the surface based on what their leaders said and economic indicators reflected.

Fact is it is the debt of the consumer which will bring on the recession which will break the confidence. Gold is such a small mkt even a scintilla of capital going in will cause it to explode and then the horse is out of the barn. Bob gives the impression that some huge wave of demand would be necessary to run it up. Hey in 1993 all it took was Geo. Soros little ( comparatively ) hedge fund.

Bob's analysis is an accurate reflection of the past, present and the future our financial leaders want us to believe so the capital continues to flow in the right direction. The expansion of credit at all levels along with derivitives is just the type of excessive credit expansion which has always led to depression. When this occurs we will see how the confidence is running.

Bob consider things that may slow growth in Fortress USA they are everywhere. Investor's should view Clinton's chest pounding with alarm. He knows we need foreign capital en masse. If the facts truly spoke for themselves the chest thumping and constant cheerleading would be unnecessary. Those in the know can see CHANGE IS COMING!!

And there you have it!

all the best

(Thu Jun 19 1997 22:57)
RJ ( 22:47 ) I lived in Vermont for 15 years ( 1977-1992 ) before movin to Cape Breton and BERNIE Sanders is NO democrat....he belongs to the socialist party....

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:01)
I am only bearish on gold short term, six months to a year. In the next three to five, I think I can finally express a majority opinion here... Easily $500 + +......

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:02)
@ defusing the financial crisis
Eldorado: In the words of the great Austrian economist, Ludwig von Mises: "The only way to stop a credit boom from collapsing is to never let it stop in the first place." I have heard every argument under the sun on how to solve our national financial crisis. But what every proposed solution boils do to is this: Rob and extract wealth from "xyz" group to solve the problem. Must people have a hard time accepting the fact that a problem exists with NO possible solution for it.

I harken back to my childhood days of playing the game: GAS - LIGHT - & WATER. In this game, to win, you must connect each of the three different stations ( G, L, & W ) with a line to each of the X's without crossing any of the lines.



It can be mathematically proven that this problem has no possible solution. You can tell people that it's impossible to solve it, yet they will keep trying in vain hope that the mathematics are wrong. Defusing a credit-bubble is similarly hopeless. There is absolutely no way to get rid of a debt-bubble without tremendous economic and financial pain.

Furthermore, the greater the bubble, the greater the subsequent crash, and the greater the economic pain. The only way for anyone to protect themselves in this type of situation is to get your money out of the collapsing credit-system, and move it into gold and silver coins.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:02)
RJ--I am currently back testing strict word count as well as space counting as letters too. Preliminary results show negligable differences. Hope that helps.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:03)
Hi Vieserre!...Nothin but rain,fog, and cold weather recently but the ocean is still awesome.....many loons and the White-sided Dolphins are back...fog horn sounds in the distance....

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:04)
Auric: Thanks for the welcome. Where I think gold will be in six months is only dependent on where the money goes to in that time span. I'm a fairly simple person, so I will simply try to find a money trail in everything. There are powers that, as others here have stated, contain a situation. Not a good good thing to have to contain, mind you, but do pray that they do continue to do so. In all due regard to gold, and in only my opinion, it could make a fairly decent spike up, but my sights are more on the basis of the 'why'. There are many fine posts here and many fine links to many more to be found here. I see a definite problem beginning to envelop the reserve currency of the world. But what that might suggest for gold prices, being as controlled as it is, is not expedient to forcast upon in my own opinion. I have a certain amount of the physical metals put away, as any person should have, but I count it solely as a form of insurance. I also have a few stocks that have done well over the past couple years but I'm about at the point of liquidating those, at least for a while. I know this posting is probably not what you were hoping for in regards to a gold price, but I hope it does at least help get all of you to know me.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:04)
Ted - I thought something smelled wrong. Thanks for setting THAT strait.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:05)
@ correction
Should read: "The only way to stop a credit-expansion from collapsing is to never let it start in the first place."

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:09)
@ WW
WW: Regarding your 22:57 posting. I continue to be impressed with your knowledge of markets, credit, and finance.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:09)
@The Polo Grounds

RJ @ 23:01- Thanks. I would say $600 by 2000. We
are in the same ballpark.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:14)
@the scene
Puetz -- Steve, somehow in my own mind I do know that. But you can't fault a guy for continuing to try. Therefore, I'll continue to seek for 'possibilities'.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:14)
Bob @ 16:38
I wish I said that. I agree that number mean less than people perceptions of numbers. All human currency has always represented only the IDEA of wealth. Touch.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:15)
RJ: No problem Bro....Bernie's a left-wing jerk from Brooklyn NY...We locals in Vermont called his ilk "flatlanders" of the reasons I left the state....for another country!...Thanks to the liberal elite runnin Vermont my property taxes there are up to 5,500 bucks a year and I live on a private road with NO services, in rural Vermont...One of the most ridiculously run states in the USA....Bernie+ Ben+Jerrys ice cream hahahaha....IDIOTS!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:17)

Sabot @ 23:04- Well stated and well written. I
hope you continue to post.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:22)
A Salty Tale
TED: I do not recall whether I mentioned this to you, when I was younger I had a yawl which I took off with and sailed for 5 years on open waters, I lost it on submerged reef, and your comments remind me of how much I miss those times.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:27)
BOB: you mentioned the demonetization of gold by the world Central Banks. Fact is that it has already occured and is yesterdays news. The amount of gold held is infintesimal in comparison to currency float. If this isnt demonetization on its face nothing is. The fact is that the opposite is the truth. THE FACT that gold is inconsequential as a holding and yet CBs jaw bone about selling gold and obssess about it may reflect a worry they may have gone to far. The recent FED sponsored study concluded that if all the CBs sold all their gold it would push gold down to 309 ( supply would dry up due to mine closings ) . WOW a whole ten percent downside but then what? Further they estimated the sales would raise a WHOLE 375 million or about one years interest on US debt. The US share would be a WHOLE 95 billion and the CBs would get an extra 15 billion a year in interest. That these numbers are underwhelming brings one to the ques. of why CBs REALLY talk down gold or for that matter talk about it at all. If you look at the facts the CB gold sales basically have to be over and buying may soon start. However, even if they dumped it all they would raise an insignificant amount of money and lose any propaganda control they now have over market sentiment. SO MUCH TALK OVER SOOO LITTLE MONEY...HMMM

Facts Speak Louder Than Talk!!!

Sgt. Friday
(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:28)

Hi. It's Friday. Hey, BT? You for real? Ya got SIX
days to prove yourself.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:30)
Anyone notice that the ENCRYPTION STANDARD code has been
broken and the $10,000 prize awarded?

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:35)
Vieserre: No, you didn't mention the yawl....After bein here on the ocean fer five years,I don't think I could live away from the water again and am gettin excited about seein Swan's Island on Sunday...from there it's the express to the Adirondacks and ANOTHER Island for two weeks..."Witch Island" on Big Wolf Lake....Island Odyssey ya might say!...It's late and I'm tryin to get on an earlier schedule for the trip...Good Night, my friend.....too bad about the yawl!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:35)
Gunrunner - you might find my platinum/yen relationship charts interesting. They can be found at the Gold Eagle @: There is a pretty good silver chart there also. I made these chart last week, so you can get a pretty good idea of where we are. I do think that you should look at platinum, that ride is not nearly over.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:36)
vieserre: Not ever having been aboard a boat that sunk, though I do commiserate the fact that you were, I too have a love for the waters. Having left the Navy from being aboard a carrier for years, I then went to the west coast of Florida and lived aboard a boat. Didn't particularly go anywhere like you did, but it was, and is, a time of life that will forever be emblazoned on my memory. It would be good to be back! Good life to you!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:37)
Hang Seng up 350.96 ( 2.40% ) .....Good Night too Tarnished!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:42)
@Gee Seven

WW: Is not the net value of the entire gold market
small in relation to the stock market? In other
words, a bull market in gold does not require large
amounts of money. Comments?

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:43)
@the scene
WW -- I want to thank you for these postings of yours of late. They've been tremendous!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:44)
After I logged off
Larry @ Jun 19 1997 00:57 - Your explanation is as good as any I have heard. The spring analogy is very apt. It might be awhile before the SPROOOOOOOIIIIINNNNGGG, though.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:50)
Took me awhile
Bernatz de Ventadorm - Epiphany! I do see wisdom in your words!

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:53)
geff: LOL. An astute observation. Though I hadn't thought about density of prose as a technical indicator.

(Thu Jun 19 1997 23:59)
@New england

Auric: You are correct the capitalizartion of all gold stks is less than Coke.

Gold mkt is being held down by derivitive sales much as financials have been propelled by derivitive buying ( like the Yen carry trade etc. ) The CB propganda is to squash ANY interest ( it wouldnt take much ) and therefore encourage more producer selling at lower prices. The Wall St boys raid gold on the comex and it looks like their objective is to keep it technically weak by keeping it under it 100 day moving average. But again only a scintilla of capital and the horse is out of the barn. Due to derivitiive sales gold has an explosive upside potential which is the corrollary of the implosion potential caused by deriviative buying in the financial mkts.

Thems da Facts Boys