Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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itsy bitsy trader
(Fri Jun 27 1997 00:18)
@water spout
I guess Friday's Big Trader's show me day?!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 00:23)

look at the crb to get a good picture of inflation. it is as
clear as the nose on the end of their faces, and yet they
tell the people they serve that it is not so.----higher
prices on commodities is not inflationary....and it is
believed by the sleep-walkers, and the press prints it as
they are told to print it.

merrill lynch is predicting a 20% chance of a fed rate increase
of 25pts at the july meeting. they predict a 48% chance by sept 30. they predict a 72% chance by october. ( source ibd--6-26-97 )
there is no question that we are/have been experiencing inflationary
pressures for a long time. the big question is... when will the
government actually acknowledge the fact? that will cause the sleepwalkers to also acknowledge it....if only in passing in-difference.

cherokee!; ) miner of the copper bulls, and fed rate increase seeker.
will up-link with neutrinos to seek help for apache, as bre-x still
haunts his soul. my opinion on bre-x and big trader are preserved
for posterity, and they were right!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 00:24)
SQ7 - Old crop/New crop - The Big SQUEEZE
Cherokee oh great seer of things good AND bad and Slayer of Big Dummy Trader... this bean thing may play out sooner than one might think. Mathematics says so. We must trade using the same Gods...If I may be so bold. Thanks again for your posts, they fill me.

Too add: June 97 futures mag. has a great feature on China and the world markets. Must read. They are to be reckoned with as many have said. It will be a very positive thing for everyone who gears up for their inevitable rise as THE powerhouse.

'till later...



(Fri Jun 27 1997 00:28)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals
over 120 Market days. Shows possible double bottom
forming. UP for the 4th of July ?

itsy bitsy trader
(Fri Jun 27 1997 00:32)
@water spout
Well, Friday is here and where is Big Trader. I guess he meant that Friday Big Trader would show us how the metals market put everyone to sleep from boredom!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 00:53)
Speed: Thanks for the Deaner URL. Now I can sleep easier!

For all: Please don't confuse me with "Scott". Although that is a very fine name, and he knows far more than me of the gold market, I'm "Scotty" and you all can get beamed up anytime!! :- ) )

(Fri Jun 27 1997 01:58)
The World in Reverse @ Goldbugs
A somewhat Dadaistic poem:
Consciousness processes reality as appearing expectations, subjective
interpretations transforming truth into facts.

Make judgements from results, because either ideas or hypotheses discount
( continuously ) errors.

Believe, don't attribute opinions to theory, mere flying through clouds
of inconsistency.

Discovering avoids partially neglecting. Neglecting partially avoids
discovering inconsistency of clouds, through flying mere theory to
opinions attribute.

Don't believe errors continuously discount hypotheses or ideas either,
because results from judgements make facts into truth: transforming
subjective expectations appearing as reality processes: consciousness.

Flushing Dalton
(Fri Jun 27 1997 02:35)
@it wont fit
EB. All experiences I have had with Mr. Dalton and the turd that wont fit have ended in either complete catastrophe with me almost munching on the
stuff or its sucked down the shooter with so much force that a tidal
wave was created when its hit ground zero.
Lets hope this time I am covered from head to toes in it and if it
starts leaking into the home of the good people below me lets hold a

George S. Cole
(Fri Jun 27 1997 03:31)
CB Treasury purchases
Steve Puetz:

I have been following foreign CB treasury holdings for years. On a number of occasions these have dropped sharply for a week or two, then took off again. It is the major trend that counts.

In this regard, the foreign CBs have stopped buying treasuries on balance the past few months. The trend does seem to have changed, but I wouldn't overemphasize one week's data. They have stopped buying, but it remains to be seen whether they will sell heavily on a sustained basis.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 04:21)
@All in
Scotty: This is a Gold Bear Market. As someone said, buy low, sell high. If you didn't have a bear market you couldn't do that. But think of this...just suppose you are wrong and we have a deflation. In that event gold drops to $200 and you have a $136 tax loss. Property drops to peanuts, you take your tax write off, sell your gold at $200 and use the money to buy the whole block you live on. Give me a loss like that one!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 04:54)
@ the time zone
Sweet dreams in REM and hold the vision.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 04:56)
Turning Point ?

All of my Aust gold shares were up today on reasonable volume. This hasn't happened in a long time. I rarely try to predict market timing as I believe it is an impossible task, however sometimes I just can't help myself, so here goes : The turning point for gold is very, very close ( if it didn't actually occur yesterday, it should occur within 2 weeks ) .

Off to China for a few days.
Regards, Milhouse

Mike Sheller
(Fri Jun 27 1997 06:09)
My heart belongs to dada
6PAK: You forgot to add: "ac-centuate the positive and e-liminate the negative, latch on to the affirmative, and don't mess with mister in-between."

Mike Sheller
(Fri Jun 27 1997 06:22)
Moon, June, Swoon, Loon?
STEVE PUETZ: Not that I want to sound like a fussy Virgo ( which I'm not ) but I suppose the full Moon phenomenon could be called ":astrological" in a manner of speaking. As you may be aware, various kinds of social, human, and animal activity of unusual magnitude tends to occur at the Full Moon. If we accept that energy flows from all parts of the universe, visible and invisible, are constantly circulating to, through, and past our planet, then we might also accept that such activity comes in cyclic waves - just like everything else. The Full Moon part of the lunar cycle is clearly a period of maximum reflected sunlight toward the earth. In other words, the planet gets an additional dose at night, along with whatever has flowed to its facing surfaces during the day. This may be symbolic of various levels of energy cycle activity, seen and unseen, that perhaps infuses the denizens of our world with a tad more zip than they can adequately handle. Most humans being somewhat unbalanced to begin with, will exhibit an extra dollop of mania at such times. Some have ascribed this to extra gravitation, etc, which is just a more measurable form of energy interaction. I think the light of the moon is symbolic for less visible activities, IMHO. Yes, there is an effect. Arch Crawford tends to use the interrelationship of the Moon & Planets among themselves more in his work. I tend toward using the relationships of the transiting planets to the fixed horoscopes of people, corporations, exchanges, contract dates, etc, myself. So when the Moon is full, I just stand in the back yard and sing "Bad Moon Rising" from Creedence Clearwater. Usually after a Martini.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 06:50)
Are the nerds running the markets? Bill Gates leader of the nerd ( computer revolution ) has given the brokerage firms and the think tanks the ability to trade billions in a matter of seconds with no emotional hangups.Watching the markets this week was like standing in the centre of a computer war.What chance has the little investor I think none.Big Trader a few more days and you might make the history books.Mike Sheller I find the most dangerous moon the new moon everything is hidden as the new cycle begins.Any moon is a c.c.r moon to me as I have many moon squares in my personal chart.Ted get back we all miss you.As far as Gold is concerned it's a very sick story.Happy Trails

(Fri Jun 27 1997 06:51)
Bloombergs morning-gold-report for australia tells again the story about the potential central banks sellings. Gold is trapped between 336.85 and 340.50 with some buying-power on the downside of this range. The question I try to answer for myself is: If I would be a CB - the responsible manager - would I tell the markets in advance that I plan to sell a huge amount of gold? Half a year ago I interviewed a Austrian central banker and he confirmed, that if they sell anything they try to get as much money as possible - like any other investor. I simply don't believe that CBs sell at todays level - of course, they could be a serious break for every upmove. But when will they start selling? If the goldprice increases and the CBs want to make the profit, tey need no get the budgets under control they'll probably wait a while and start selling at higher levels ( 370, 380? ) , otherwise they'd kill every chance to get more money by themself.
So at the moment for the goldmarket it's much more important what George Soros and Co are doing. They just made a nice profit in Bangkok, let's see where they go next.

"Heard on the Kitco Street"
(Fri Jun 27 1997 07:10)
Now showing at a theatre near you...
Gold: Overnight - a new low ! I'm so ashamed ...
Puetz: But I just told everyone you had bottomed !
Gold: I know. Depressing, isn't it - I don't know how low I'll sink...
Lurker: I've just mortgaged my kids and put everything I have into long
gold futures. Does anyone know when gold is going to go up ?
George S Cole: A final blow-off in the Dow later this summer, and a selling climax in gold and gold stocks, will precede the secular bull...
Blonde: Ooh George, I love it when you talk dirty...
Mike Sheller: When the Moon is in the Seventh House, and Jupiter aligns
with Uranus...
cherokee: when flux and chaos have ridden the ether to infinity and
back again, when the smoke-signal-mobile has new rings,
and when i have found the damn shift key on this keyboard !
Vronsky: Guest Guru Greenspan tells you when at ...
BT: When I make it happen, according to my secret master plan !
GFD: What BT really means to say is - he hasn't got a clue !
Scott: This actually is a rally - the lower price is just to give the
illusion of a downtrend for the guestimates !
All: Come back, TED. All is forgiven !
Earl: And bring your Spread !
Front: What's wrong, Panda ?
Panda: I've just found out that I'm a BEAR !! Why didn't anyone tell me ?
Tortfeasor: Did you hear the one about the actress and the bishop ?
Money Bags: Does anyone want to hear MY latest joke ?
All: NO !!

Mike Sheller
(Fri Jun 27 1997 07:14)
New Moon, Charts for Bonds, Gold
POORBOYS: Profound comment re New Moon. I too have found it to be the most treacherous. CHARTS: At the charts this morning - The Long Bond has stalled at 113 resistance as surmised. Stochastic is going down dramatically, and moving average visible spread is now severe, indicating more downside. Near-term support at 110. 106 is still the big divide. Below 106 and bonds come out of their Rhino triangle on the DOWNSIDE, and bigtime. Last dance here might be over. It is hard to believe this is a consolidation before a run thru 113 ( which would be either a spectacular boost to stox, or signal a recession ) but that is now the OUTSIDE possibility. Gold - the August gold looks to be making a mini rounded bottom. Stochastic is comfortably low, and a gap is opening between moving averages. This is a bottoming configuration. A rally from here will start off in dribs and drabs before it picks up steam. 346.50 is still the level to exceed but longs can test the waters here. A one or two day spike, if it materializes, might scare some bulls, and embolden bears, but it will be the signal for a final washout and reversal. It's all in slo-mo, and it won't yet be the big rally we're all waiting for, but we're going up.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 07:18)
Jokes of the morng
"Heard"--great stuff!

And did you hear the one about the lawyer who could not predict the market very well; took it in the briefs and more---

Joke #1
What's the difference between a female lawyer and a pit bull?

What do you call 20 lawyers skydiving from an airplane?

What do you get when you cross a bad politician with a crooked

If you see a lawyer on a bicycle, why should you never swerve to hit
It might be your bicycle.

Santa Claus, the tooth fairy, an honest lawyer and an old drunk are
walking down the street together when they simultaneously spot a hundred
dollar bill. Who gets it?

The old drunk, of course; the other three are mythical creatures.

It was so cold last winter ... ( How cold was it? ) ... that I saw a
lawyer with his hands in his own pockets.

A man walked into a lawyer's office and inquired about the lawyer's
rates. "$50.00 for three questions", replied the lawyer. "Isn't that awfully
steep?" asked the man. "Yes," the lawyer replied, "and what was your
third question?"

You're trapped in a room with a tiger, a rattlesnake and a lawyer. You
have a gun with two bullets. What should you do?
Shoot the lawyer. Twice.

What do you call a hundred lawyers in jail?
A good start.

Joke #2
A Jewish lawyer was troubled by the way his son turned out, and went to
see his Rabbi about it.

"I brought him up in the faith, gave him a very expensive bar mitzvah, and
cost me a fortune to educate him. Then he tells me last week he has
decided to be a Christian. Rabbi, where did I go wrong?"

"Funny you should come to me," said the Rabbi. "Like you I too brought
my boy up in the faith, put him through the University, cost me a fortune,
and then one day he too comes and tells me he has decided to become a

"What did you do?" asked the Lawyer.

"I turned to G*d for the answer" replied the Rabbi.

"And what did He say?" pressed the Lawyer.

"G*d said, 'Funny you should come to me...' "

Joke #3
For 3 years, the young attorney had been taking his brief vacations at
this country inn. The last time he'd finally managed an affair with the
innkeeper's daughter. Looking forward to an exciting few days, he
dragged his suitcase up the stairs of the inn, then stopped short. There
sat his lover with an infant on her lap!

"Helen, why didn't you write when you learned you were pregnant?" he
cried. "I would have rushed up here, we could have gotten married, and
the baby would have my name!"

"Well," she said, "when my folks found out about my condition, we sat up
all night talkin' and talkin' and decided it would be better to have a
bastard in the family than a lawyer."

Mike Sheller
(Fri Jun 27 1997 07:19)
Heard on the Kitco Street
Heard on the Kitco Street hilarious! A must for the "best of Kitco collection ( available on CD and Zip disk ) . I didn't know RJ got up this early in the morning.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 07:27)
@CB's Are Selling
Gary: If the CB's are selling you have to ask yourself why. Each probably has a different reason. Are they cooking their books to show dollar reserves? Do they need the money to pay bills? If they are selling then an equally, or more important question is "who is doing the buying" who is the other side of the deal and why are they buying. The answer is quite likely "from weak hands to strong hands". In other words the world scene is on the verge of a big shift, ala England to U.S. in 1932. Is this the U.S. to Japan shift? Is the U.S. taking down its dollar reserve allies with it?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 07:33)
Is gold just another investment vehicle or is it a store of value?
Just another investment you say, then run like a rabbit. Store of value you say, then you have another great buying ( accumulating ) opportunity. Gold is cheap by any measure. Get it now and you will own the worldwithin 2 years.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 07:35)
Why Japan will have to sell U.S. bond holdings


JAPAN might not be able to keep itself from selling massive amounts of U.S. government bonds. It just might
not happen right away.

Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto kicked up a whirlwind on Monday with comments about how his
country might start selling our government's bonds unless the U.S. stabilized its currency rates.

And the subject was fresh in Wall Street's minds when, on Wednesday, the Japanese were conspicuously
absent as buyers of Washington's new five-year notes.

Interest rates rose sharply and stocks dropped noticeably. Was Hashimoto following through on his threats?

As you know, stocks in this country fell a quick 192 points Monday on Hashimoto's comments and, from far
and near, commentators ( this one included ) started flapping their lips to spin what the Prime Minister said. The
Japanese said their PM was misunderstood -- I don't think so.

I don't have the space here to get into how such a move by Japan would hurt the U.S.

I've been writing about this for months and did it again on Tuesday, so go to the recycling bin. But in a
nutshell, if this blackmail threat is ever carried out by Japan, it would raise interest rates in the U.S., weaken the
dollar, and probably sink the stock market.

What everyone is missing, and my friend Pete Peterson -- former Commerce Secretary and an expert on Japan
-- pointed out to me is that Hashimoto and his successors will eventually have no choice but to liquidate U.S.
government securities.

Forget threats. Forget posturing. Forget every contorted explanation the spinners were able to come up with.
Peterson says the sale of U.S. government bonds by Japan is inevitable.

Peterson, now the head of Blackstone Group, has been preaching the gospel of adverse demographics for
years. And he thinks that the aging population will have an inevitably bad effect on deficits in both the U.S. and

You've heard a lot about how Social Security in the U.S. will go broke somewhere down the road. And how
we'll all be eating dog food unless we start planning for this by socking away piles of money on our own.

But if you think the retirement system in the U.S. is messed up, just take a look at Japan.

In this country we are fretting because there will only be three people working to support every retiree in the
years ahead. In Japan, the ratio will be one-to-one, the experts say. By the year 2010, each Japanese worker
will not only have to clothe, feed and house his family but he'll also have to carry an old person on his financial

The reasons are simple. The Japanese have a tendency to live longer and they have fewer kids. And with
improved health care, ironically the problem will only get worse.

"Imagine the worst," says Peterson recently, just before winging his way to Japan. "That ( Japan ) goes from a
huge creditor to a huge borrower."

Hashimoto's clout right now lies in the fact that Japan lends lots of money to the U.S. They currently hold $200
billion in Treasury securities. TWO HUNDRED BILLION. Add in real estate holdings and you get the idea that
we'll all soon be bowing to the Emperor.

And with each tick down in the value of the dollar, Japan not only loses money on its investment in U.S. bonds
but it also has worse prospects for selling TVs and everything else in the U.S.

How long will Japan wait before it starts selling U.S. bonds? Only that country knows. It could be as soon as
the next scandal that hits the Clinton administration ( expect one this summer ) , or it could be as late as 2010.

But it will happen. And don't take Peterson's knowledge of this stuff lightly. He's a man who is highly
regarded in Japan.

Copyright 1997, N.Y.P. Holdings Inc.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 07:36)
Gary should have been Gery. I didn't mean to change your gender if thats the case.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 07:45)
@ :-
"Heard on the Kitco Street" -- ROTFL :- ) ) :- ) ) :- ) )

George S. Cole
(Fri Jun 27 1997 07:49)
August gold
August gold off $1.30 this morning. Looks like still another spike down.
Gold bear still alive and kicking. But not much longer methinks.

Bloomberg Shbloomberg
(Fri Jun 27 1997 07:50)
blablablablablabla and bla
nananana blabla how much crap do ya wanna hear?

Bloomberg Shbloomberg
(Fri Jun 27 1997 07:51)
blablablablablabla and bla
nananana blabla how much crap do ya wanna hear?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 07:59)
An explanation for Japan's threatened but not seen gold buying: After years of propping up the US economy through the buying of US paper Japan is now attempting to prop up the economy of their gold producing customers. Australia, S Africa, Canada and the new South American gold mining areas. I've heard less rational explanations.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 08:45)
Chinese army plans for HK firmed up

HONG KONG, June 27 ( UPI ) _ Plans for the arrival next week of China's main People's Liberation
Army garrison in Hong Kong have been finalized.

Officials said Friday that about 4,700 soldiers are scheduled to arrive at 6 a.m. on July 1, the first day
after the British colony returns to China.

The office of Hong Kong's first post-colonial leader, Tung Chee-hwa ( ``Toong CHEE-wah'' ) , said the
troops will cross the border by land, sea and air.

Land-based troops will arrive in 21 armored cars and 400 other vehicles. Naval troops will come aboard
10 ships, and crews will be docking west of a new base being built by the Hong Kong government. Six
helicopters also are expected to fly into an air base in the semi-rural New Territories.

In recent weeks, about 200 People's Liberation Army soldiers have entered Hong Kong to prepare for
the arrival of the main garrison. Another 509 soldiers are scheduled to arrive at 9 p.m. on the night of
June 30 so they can be deployed at the stroke of midnight, when China's takeover is official.

Outgoing Gov. Chris Patten reacted to the news by warning China against deploying armored cars and
personnel just six hours after handover.

Patten said: ``The PLA, quite properly, is coming to Hong Kong as a symbol of Chinese sovereignty.
But the internal security of Hong Kong is a matter for the Hong Kong police and there isn't an internal
security problem.''

Hong Kong people are generally suspicious of China's 1-million-strong army because members of its
6.4-million population are either refugees from Communist China or their descendants. Many also
harbor memories of the army's crackdown on unarmed pro-democracy protesters at Tiananmen Square
in 1989.

It was unclear if China plans to station more troops in Hong Kong at a later date or if soldiers will be
rotated with other garrison members based in the neighboring Chinese city of Shenzhen.


Copyright 1997 by United Press International.


(Fri Jun 27 1997 08:53)
@leaving for work
Spot gold just popped down 1.80. The shorts have pulled out the heavy guns. BT looks cooked!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:00)
George S. Cole.. I love your comments and appreciate your optimism
about gold.

Your said:
"Gold bear still alive and kicking. But not much longer methinks".

My target ( calculated technically ) still, short term 85 XAU. And I am looking
at the remote possibility of 50 XAU.. Sound silly?? Well, based on Everyones
"optimistic view" when XAU was at approx. 150 nothing is impossible when
other investments are "obviously" so much more profitable.

I love goldbugs because they believe, almost religiously, the opposite of
the facts.. Why? I really love this group!

When I see real despair, And everyone completely gives up on gold, when
I hear arguments as to why the metal has no reason to exist then a buying
opportunity will be at hand..

Gold Maniac
(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:02)
no more
Gold has no reason to exist! I give up!

Gold Dreamer
(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:04)
its over for gold
I giv up after 11 years. Gold has no reason to exist. I quit.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:05)
This is the end. Gold is worthless! It has no reason to exist!!!!
I GIVE UP!!!!!!!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:06)
The "T" in BT doesn't seem to stand for trader, rather I think it stands for...well let's just say that there are Vas Deferens in his lineage...

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:07)
Buy stocks thats where unlimited profits are. I give up on gold. It has no reason to exist!!!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:08)
Gold sucks: why bother, everybody is selling and nobody is buying there is no market!

Gold lover
(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:09)
final whistle
Gold is useless!!! Im selling all my Krugs. Gold has no reason to exist. I give up too!!!

Gold holder
(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:10)
game is over
Im selling it all!!
I give up!

The last believer in gold
(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:12)
im crying
I have reached the end. Gold has no use. It should not exist. I give up on gold!!!!!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:13)
Whats even worse is that Kitco has qutoes saying gold is 338.30 HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA is this a guess or somthing!

Gold anonymous
(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:15)
i have a problem
I have been addicted to gold fo 7 years. NO MORE. I quit.
Gold has no reason to EXIST. Long live Central Banks!!
Long live governments and their paper!!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:18)
Milhouse: Are you familiar with Charters Towers Gold ( CTO.ASX ) , if so, please e-mail me, I would like to discuss the issue.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:18)
Please help me!!! I need to quit!!! I hate gold, I hate gold.
I hate it. It has no reason to exist!!!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:19)
The sign?
Is this the sign you have been waiting for? Quick call your broker!!!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:21)
6pk 01:58
So does this mean golds going up or what? ( !: ) )

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:21)
Gold down $345.00 now valued at -$10. If you want some gold we will pay you to take it away!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:22)
Look at ( sorry don't know how to connect the URL directly ) and tell me, if there is a mistake.

George s. Cole
(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:24)
not really
My TA indicates that gold will go down to $225 today and $23.75 Monday.
Gold has no reason to exist. I give up

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:26)
Ok guys: switch off computer, go swimming, movies or whatever. Come back next Friday after Hong Kong has got over its hangover and lets see where we are. Watching gold go down every 15 minutes will make you crazy!

Strad Master
(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:26)
not really
I take up violin full time. Gold has no reason to exist! I give up too.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:27)
Glad to see that gold investors have some humor left.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:27)
not really
Im leaving NY. Gold has no reason to exist.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:28)
not really
I ve been wrong all these years.
Gold has no value and no place in a civilized society!!!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:30)
What happens when gold paint is valued more than real gold? ... OR
What happend when XAU becomes negative? Will it cause a computer crash.... I bloody hope so!

Greenspan and Rubin
(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:30)
official announcment
OUR mission has been acomplished.
Gold has no reason to exist.

The one
(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:35)
Beat your bullion into plows and conductors.
Gold has no reason to exist.
Follow the paper. Worship the paper. Salvation is near.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:37)
Golds just cuising for a bruising,
And he aint one for loosing,
Ya gotta know he's man,
Cause the dice is in the can.
He,s got some refrain,
And he sound just like a train.
Oooo wooo.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:39)
You guys are funny.
I do agree with NotaGoldbug. Gold really has no reason to exist. With todays technology we dont need it.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:41)
Damn right NotaGoldbug.
Gold is for them rich people. They is stupid cause gold has no value.
We poor folk like them paper better cause its form our government, and we can trust our government.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:41)
Wait - gold does have a reason to exist! It weighs just a little less than lead... I'll melt it down and cast it into bullets! ( environmentalists hate lead anyway ) .....................

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:43)
Right on commrade NotaGoldbug.
Death to gold, the imperialist tool.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:43)
@the scene
Gold has no reason to exist. Debt has every reason to go on and on and on forever. Long live the paper! We'll pile it so high that we can walk to the moon!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:44)
Although the bottom may not yet actually be in, I believe it is the time for my Louis 16th quotation. My American friends, ( if I have any left after my anti-political discussion comments ) , will be happy to know that the tale was supposedly related by one Benjamin Franklin when he was residing in Paris, France during the period when America was struggling for its independance. BBIAF - Gone upstairs to dig out the ancient tome.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:46)
any government
You are correct citizen NotaGolbug.
Gold has no value and only enemies of the state and the people would buy gold. Trust us. We wil take care of you..........really good.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:47)
Oh Shit
Gold 335 and falling fast!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:47)
@I seen the light

Just sold all gold holdings. Now margined long S+P. Nice to be in on the ground floor!

Nurse Jones
(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:50)
I agree with you NotaGoldbug.
All the girls at my hospital say that they know nothing about gold. I think that is cause gold has no reason to exist. Its usless.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:51)
Chekhov: Keptin Clerk, a dozin guldbears hev just decloaked off port and starboard!
BOOM, Lights flicker, smoke.
Clerk: Splok! Splok! What's our status!
Splok: Captain our shields have just absorbed the enrgy of 78 MegaBear fusion bombs. Shields down 82.24876%
Clerk: Scotty! Get those shields up!
Scotty Kaptan, it no use, those space scum bears hit me bairns right in the bullithium crystals. Kaptan, we're goin down!
Clerk: Scotty I need more power and I need it now!
Splok: Captain, may I suggest that it is logical that we capitulate
Clerk: Fire all phasers, fire bearton torpedoes!
Chekhov: Keptin, there's something on the wing, sommmeee THHIIING!
End transcript last transmissions USS Goldbug

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:52)
Such a wellspring of emotion!! I guess when your loosing
money you have to ventilate someway!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:52)
AU thoughts
Gold, Schmold. Let's let some lawyers fight over those gold bars and when they get done floss our teeth with the resulting gold wire.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:53)
First, a quote from the historian Macaulay - "He alone reads history right who, observing how powerfully circumstances influence the feelings and opinions of men, how often vices pass into virtues and paradoxes into axioms, learns to distinguish what is accidental and transitory in human nature from what is essential and immutable.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:53)
@your guess is right
Dow 20000 by end of day.

Central Banker
(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:53)
Yes Sir, NotaGoldbug!!
The only reason we hold gold ourselves is to protect simple people from buying it. After all gold is useless and has no reason to exist. Even when we sell it, we sell it to other CBS. To protect you. We do it for your benefit. We love you. We care!!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:54)
$335 once...................

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:56)
I appologize for the behavior of other participants. I hate gold.
What do you recommend I invest my money in both short an long term?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:57)
Time to buy more bullion, its cheaper!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:58)
keep going
XAU - 1.01

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:59)
I hopr that gold drops to $1. I will buy 100,000.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 09:59)
keep going
tomP : You give me faith

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:01)
If gold drops to $300, I will buy all I can.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:02)
Gary: Cash...
This brings a quote to mind:

"In order to win you've got to set the stage"

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:02)
I hope that CBs sell all the gold they have. Idiots. Then we will get a good laugh all the way to the bank

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:02)
Captain Clerk: Splok! Lock on those Louis whatever tomes and have Scotty beam them up immediately, they're are only chance!
Splok: Illogical, captain.
Clerk: Energize!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:03)
A wise man can see that a sharp move up results in a sharp move down, so gold at 300,000 meters a second should make a spectacular return next week. You wait and see if I'm right. What even better is that a sharp gain will pull us out of this bear market. Just what we need!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:04)
Not a one liner
Thursday June 26 8:22 PM EDT

Drop in Fed custody holdings revives fears of BoJ

By Isabelle Clary

NEW YORK, June 26 ( Reuter ) - A steep $7.259-billion drop in the Federal Reserve's custody holdings for foreign central banks and international organizations sparked market fears -- though unsubstantiated so far -- that Japan may be divesting U.S. Treasuries, analysts said on Thursday.

``In light of Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's comments earlier this week, people will see this as a sign the Japanese are indeed selling,'' said Deutsche Morgan Grenfell senior currency strategist Marc Chandler.

Hashimoto roiled U.S. financial markets on Monday when he urged U.S.-Japan foreign exchange cooperation. Market players saw a veiled threat in Hashimoto's reference to Japan's past temptation to sell U.S. Treasuries and buy gold at times of foreign exchange volatility.

``I would caution against reading too much into this,'' Chandler said of the $7.259-billion drop in custody holdings to $634.677 billion that the New York Fed reported for the week ended June 25.

The Fed's custody holdings now is $18.6 billion below its peak of $653.295 billion in the week ended April 16.

``The custody holdings are not a very good predictor of central banks' activity and misestimated central bank buying by 33 percent in the fourth quarter of 1994,'' Chandler noted.

The New York Fed purchases and sells U.S. Treasuries on behalf of foreign central banks, such as the Bank of Japan, or international organizations, such as the World Bank, and maintains these holdings in custody.

The New York Fed publishes changes in these overall holdings on a weekly basis. However, it does not give a breakdown of the changes in the various central banks' portfolios.

``We do not release the breakdown of the custody holdings and we do not comment on the custody holdings,'' said New York Fed Senior Vice President Peter Bakstansky.

The U.S. Treasury's quarterly bulletin gives detailed figures regarding foreign buying or selling of U.S. government securities, but the data are published with a two-month lag after the end of the quarter.

``It may be a reflection of a technicality, like maturing Treasury or cash management bills,'' Chandler said.

Nomura Securities International chief economist David Resler said seasonal factors may account for the drop.

``The drop in custody holdings is certainly going to raise suspicion the Bank of Japan may be divesting Treasuries. But it is very dangerous to come to that conclusion,'' Resler said.

``A number of factors can explain a decline of that magnitude,'' Resler added. ``A central bank can sell part of its holdings to another bank or some other institution in Japan. The custody holdings are no convincing policy indication.''

Resler noted similar declines a year ago, including a $15-billion drop in mid-April the week ended April 24, 1996.

``There seems to be some seasonal elements to this decline,'' Resler added.

While noting that the $12.2-billion two-week drop in the Fed's custody holdings a year ago mirrored the current decline, Resler conceded ``it's the kind of thing that would create concern about what Hashimoto really meant.''

Chris Turner, director of research at I.D.E.A., said Bank of Japan's foreign exchange data through May do not show any divesting of U.S. Treasuries. However, they reveal a sharp deceleration.

``The Bank of Japan foreign exchange data show Japan's holdings of U.S. financial instruments up $1 billion at $222.00 billion as of May,'' Turner said.

``It's not a drop yet, but the rate of growth has dropped dramatically to 6.0 percent from 30 percent in 1996,'' Turner stressed. ``The focus is on the Fed's data because they come out first. We don't have Japan's figures for June.''

Turner added that a number of central banks, beside the Bank of Japan, may have sold U.S. Treasuries.

``Some central banks are sensitive to capital gains and would start selling Treasuries if they see a top. Others are sensitive to foreign exchange fluctuations,'' Turner explained.

``One hypothesis -- and it's just an hypothesis -- is that the People's Bank of Japan would liquidate assets to generate U.S. dollars and be prepared to defend the Hong Kong dollar should there be a run on that currency when Hong Kong reverts to Chinese rule this weekend,'' Turner added. ``At this stage, it's all speculation.''

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:07)
If gold has no reason to exist then why wont CBs sell their holdings?
Because WHEN the ..... hits the fan they need something of lasting value. If all gold was in private hands what do you think would happen?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:14)
My second Limerick
There was a gang at Kitco who said
At $335 gold is not dead
Thats all well and fine
But at three twenty nine
They buy with their hearts and not with their heads.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:14)
Lurker: I didn't say "gold has no reason to exist". what I said was "When I see real despair, And everyone completely gives up on gold, when
I hear arguments as to why the metal has no reason to exist then a buying
opportunity will be at hand.."

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:15)
Does anyone know what the month code is for the current Gold and Silver stuff...I wa following GCM7 and SIN7 Are these correct?


Emily Letellier
(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:18)

"What's all this talk about CBS selling gold? I mean what the heck does a broadcasting company have to do with international finance? You don't hear anything about ABC or NBC selling gold! CBS should just stick to television!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:19)
Waxing Metaphysical
Gold does not exist; only the notion of gold.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:19)
Front -- GCQ& and SIN7

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:19)
I will buy gold at under $350 regardless. It will be around $800 by next June. GUARANTEED!!!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:19)

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:22)
To all goldbuggers,poets,philosophers,dreamers and cynics.It's this time of the year,when nothing much happens to write about.So lets talk about this $2oo gold.Where can I buy it? I have a few hundred Yankee Dollars left over in my pocket from my last holiday in Hawaii.Of course,who would sell $200 gold if it costs $300 to produce?It's ( still ) a free world and people are allowed to do all irrational things which enters their minds.I have given up a long time ago on predicting what they would do next.One thing I have to say is,do not cry about the low price of gold,be quiet and add to your holding,because,as the saying goes, what goes up has to come down and it works in reverse just as well.Just be a LITTLE more patient.And Tortfeasor,keep those lawyer jokes coming,thanks.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:23)
Thank You !


Bernatz de ventadorm
(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:23)

Alors, ma frens - zat beeg tradair ees beeg bull sheetair by gar.
But do not WorRY. Ah have spoken wiz zee WIZARDS of zee pyrannees
and zey arre SURE zat zee beautiful gold will not go below $335 . And
someTIMES zeze guys zey aare right by dam.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:25)
Two trillion$? So that's what they are buying!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:25)
Does anyone know a ticker codee for Yahoo for Gold spot?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:25)
Such a deal!

I too would buy gold here with a guarantee of $800 in a year. Sadly, no such guarantee exits. I tell you what, I will sell you all the gold I own for $650 today, and I will guarantee to buy back all of it at $50 over the high spot price for the next year. Any takers?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:26)
If gpld keeps going down it means we have deflation under way

George s. Cole
(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:27)
gold bear
I've said it before and will say it again -- as long as the paper bull continues the gold bear will remain very much alive. But with a big stock market break likely before long, anyone who throws in the towel now may be making a very big mistake. If stocks go down in a major way ( 15% or more ) and gold still cannot move, then I too will throw in the towel. But I very much doubt it will work out that way.

Mooney: Waiting for that Louis 16 quote!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:31)
ALL - The 10:03 was not posted by me. I will be off line until this evening, at which time I post the Louis 16th - Ben Franklin storey, unless someone wants to beat me to it. It is probably found in various books, but my copy is from 'Proud Destiny' ( originally published in German as 'Arms for America' ) , by Lion Feuchtwanger and is found on page 468.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:31)
Front - I see you've decoded my '&' for then number '7'. I don't type well when I have to tpe fast. :- ) )

To all:
Folks getting a little emotional today? Did something out of the ordinary happen? :- ) ) Chill out, things have been going too well for tooo long. Something will break, count on it.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:31)
suckers! hahahahahahahhaa

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:33)
Gold rally in progress.... how far mmmmmmn

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:34)
See, there's hope yet....


(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:35)
My friend you are incorrect. Such guarantees exist.
1. Japan
2. China
3. Debt
4. North Korea
5. Immorality
6. "y2k: problem
7. Clinton
8. Deficit
9. Inflation
12. Middle East
13. Overvalued stock market
14. Overvalued RE market
15. Nonexistent savings rate
16. Social Security
17. Defaults
and many others. Not nec. in that order.
Do you honestly believe that things will get better rather than worse?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:35)
George S. Cole: I do appreciate your comments.. But I feel even you, a long
term bull, questioning golds ability to regain its luster.. This metal will confound
even the most hard core goldbugs..

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:40)
Gold 337.10 recovering somewhat

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:42)
Is this a tornado or what today?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:42)
I'll take a cashiers check.
Simple man - No offense meant, I just backed my guarantee with cash. Does your guarantee of $800 in a year come with the same? In answer to your query, read some of my priors. Yes, I do expect it to continue.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:44)

Offer still good. One ounce of the hated yellow metal says 350 before 325. Any takers?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:47)
OK, I admit it!
D.A - that is a most reasonable wager, to which I will decline. A quick rally to $350 is very possible. How about my offer of $335 half a dozen times, before $400 once?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:48)
Man, Gold is gone crazy... its all over the place... up 40 down 10 down 60 up 70 down 30 ... where she stops nobody knows. There must be a few big players today.. be interesting to see volume figures.

Steve (Perth - Western Australia)
(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:49)
MIKE SHELLER: I find your rainbow account quite a stark, yet bright contrast compared to most posts today. An everlasting covenant was remembered. ( see below )
GOLD: My Rothschild contact is saying Gold to around $300, then up to $580 approx. What happens then???? There is a big re-adjustment coming between the Central Banks in Europe, Asia & USA. These times always mean volatile times. Harry Schultz was saying the charts were indicating $325 oz way back in Feb/March.

Then God said to Noah and to his sons with him:
"I now establish my covenant with you and with your descendants after you
and with every living creature that was with you--the birds, the livestock and all the wild animals, all those that came out of the ark with you--every living creature on earth.
I establish my covenant with you: Never again will all life be cut off by the waters of a flood; never again will there be a flood to destroy the earth." And God said, "This is the sign of the covenant I am making between me and you and every living creature with you, a covenant for all generations to come: I have set my rainbow in the clouds, and it will be the sign of the covenant between me and the earth.
Whenever I bring clouds over the earth and the rainbow appears in the clouds, I will remember my covenant between me and you and all living creatures of every kind. Never again will the waters become a flood to destroy all life. Whenever the rainbow appears in the clouds, I will see it and remember the everlasting covenant between God and all living creatures of every kind on the earth." So God said to Noah, "This is the sign of the covenant I have established between me and all life on the earth."
GENESIS 9:8-17

Future Profits
(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:51)
@ Rational Thinking
"I'm bearish" I replied to him. "How could anyone be bullish on this market?" I added quickly.

He pondered my reply briefly but deeply. In his eyes I saw the reflection of many years' experience.

"Son, you gotta buy em when no one wants 'em."

The statement was simple but profound. The only problem I had was knowing when the level of "no one wanting 'em" had been reached. And so, I politely asked him my question.

"Sir, when do you know that no one wants em?"

Again he stared me down, shaking slightly as he spoke. "It's simple, young man. Find ten people and ask em if they're bullish or bearish. If eight or more of em tell you they're bearish, get ready for one heck of a rally."

I remembered what I had learned about contrary opinion and its value at important turning points. I remembered the wisdom of Jesse Livermore with respect to rampant bullish or bearish opinions. I knew the old man was right.

"So, what's the poll of traders tell you today?" I asked him.

"Son, you're my tenth person and the picture is complete. You're the tenth bear of ten people I've asked. And that completes the picture for me.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:53)
Fan falls from ceiling after taking a direct hit!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:54)
I've been faithfully lurking around here for about 18 months, and this mornings comments ( especially those in reaction to notagoldbug ) brought tears to my eyes. Thank you all for the laughs!

Now that I'm here, I'll spout my .000561 ounzes of gold's worth...
I believe that all of the reasons for the paper bear to end are in place and it's just a matter of time. Time is the key. I suggest working hard, saving cash and gold, and preparing to watch the panic from the sidelines.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:55)
Fan falls from ceiling after taking a direct hit!

Big Trader
(Fri Jun 27 1997 10:56)
That BT at 10:31 was not me.

But this one is:


(Fri Jun 27 1997 11:00)
I said bear when I meant bull ( of course )

(Fri Jun 27 1997 11:04)
Gold is finding good resistance and has tested well. Some gold stocks are up and XAU represents the current lower 336.9 337.2 price range. Me thinks that gold has some life in it yet!

Paul Smith
(Fri Jun 27 1997 11:05)
Emily Letellier ( @ ) :

Re: your very astute comment... "What's all this talk about CBS selling gold? I mean what the heck does a broadcasting company have to do with international finance? You don't hear anything about ABC or NBC selling gold! CBS should just stick to television!

I agree with you entirely !

I was wondering though, it is worrying... do you happen to know how many ozs. CBS could sell if they feel so inclined ?


(Fri Jun 27 1997 11:09)

I think you've been a broker too long. I am not a retail waiting to be fleeced. I will however give you another opportunity which is a much fairer bet.

Again the stakes are for 1 oz. of the hated yellow. 400.00 before 300.00.

The window is open. Step right up.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 11:16)
280+ pages of financial data, analysis, reports & studies - VIRTUAL ENCYCLOPEDIA OF PRECIOUS METALS. Use SEARCH GOLD-EAGLE button in Hot News box to find what you seek - RAPIDLY:

(Fri Jun 27 1997 11:26)
NotaGoldbug ..... Why have you waited so long to open everyone's eyes to the fact that gold is worthless?? If you would have only come forth sooner , we wouldn't be in this state of FLUX!!!Please, if you have any other tips , don't hesitate!!!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 11:30)
tears @ me also
Roebear @ 09:21 GOLD has no reason to exist....I give up.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 11:38)
@Shorts, CB's, M Lynch
OK, so lets go. Let's see you take it down to $300.
Enough of this wallowing around 337.
Let's see if they can do it, im waiting.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 11:40)
6pk: Allow me to concur. I quit, well, I just bought a little more and now I QUIT QUIT QUIT! ( does that count? )

(Fri Jun 27 1997 11:43)
How many ozs?
I will deposit cash with Bart and you deposit gold. On June 30, 1998 you will pay me $50 above spot. Deal?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 11:46)
It is absolutely a beautiful day here in Pennsylvania Dutch country, too nice to even watch my accounts bleed. I'm out to catch some rays, somebody call me when gold hits 400 or so. Steve from Perth: loved your rainbow comment, but remember, that only goes for water, its fire next time : ) Keep the faith all! BBL

(Fri Jun 27 1997 11:46)
I propose 100 ozs.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 11:50)
I said to myselfWhat a Wonderful World
These past three weeks have left NZ, been to Guernsey, London and now in Toronto. All the while am able to keep up with the stimulating conversations going on here.

A thousand thanks Bart.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 11:53)
M.Graves: I did state my negative opinion on XAU "months" ago but alas,
no one listened..

(Fri Jun 27 1997 12:04)
If I remember correctly NotaGoldBug has been looking for the XAU to dip to at least the mid 90's since the fall of last year. I for one make note of his posts.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 12:06)
@ Valley
NotaGoldbug....Please give us your superior insight on what we should do with our money , after we sell our worthless gold funds. Oh Please !!!!!!
Ted.... get to a computer , FAST!!!!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 12:11)
@ alternative planet kitco
Ummm, make that all the comments save the recent alternative universe storm I posted in the middle of.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 12:24)
Market Emergency
With so many hours to kill on airoplanes thought it would be a good idea to read Stephen Fay's Silver Bubble again 10 years after first time.

ALL: I would be grateful for any information concerning Comex's powers to declare a Market Emergency.

Comex declared a Market Emergency during Feb/March 1980 ( have not brought book with me to this cybercafe so unable to recall exact date ) and allowed liquidation trading only.

In particular:

1 Have there been any other occasions when the rules were changed by Comex that effected a free market in trading?

2 Do the rules of Natural Justice apply to Comex?? in other words, is there any recourse against Comex if it changes the rules without warning?

Perhaps Tort or other legal beagles could add something here?

Tanx for the jokes Tort.

BTW also recommend "Where are the Customer's Yachts" recently reprinted, for a humourous look at investing

(Fri Jun 27 1997 12:30)
This morning the dollar is up against all major currencies. The Yen is down and yet the bonds are stalled as Mike Sheller has pointed out. Where is the money going???? ....... Must be going into NotaGoldbugs pocket??? .. ( :- ) )

With reference to that Yen/gold chart I posted yesterday; they apparently will only track to the downside. For the past month or so we have had the Yen up and gold flat to down. Now the Yen is down and gold is following it. ....... "Abandon all hope, ye who enter here".

Steve (Perth-Western Australia)
(Fri Jun 27 1997 12:36)
ROEBEAR: The "astrological" guide to finding REAL gold
My version of "I Believe" of a week ago....
search for "gold" and you will discover...

Genesis 2:11
Genesis 2:12
Genesis 13:2
Genesis 24:22
Genesis 24:35
Genesis 24:53
Genesis 41:42
Genesis 44:8
Exodus 3:22
Exodus 11:2
Exodus 12:35
Exodus 20:23
Exodus 25:3
Exodus 25:11 - ( 2 )
Exodus 25:12
Exodus 25:13
Exodus 25:17
Exodus 25:18
Exodus 25:24 - ( 2 )
Exodus 25:26
Exodus 25:28
Exodus 25:29
Exodus 25:31
Exodus 25:36
Exodus 25:38
Exodus 25:39
Exodus 26:6
Exodus 26:29 - ( 3 )
Exodus 26:32 - ( 2 )
Exodus 26:37 - ( 2 )
Exodus 28:5
Exodus 28:6
Exodus 28:8
Exodus 28:11
Exodus 28:13
Exodus 28:14
Exodus 28:15
Exodus 28:20
Exodus 28:22
Exodus 28:23
Exodus 28:24
Exodus 28:26
Exodus 28:27
Exodus 28:33
Exodus 28:36
Exodus 30:3 - ( 2 )
Exodus 30:5
Exodus 31:4
Exodus 32:24
Exodus 32:31
Exodus 35:5
Exodus 35:22 - ( 2 )
Exodus 35:32
Exodus 36:13
Exodus 36:34 - ( 3 )
Exodus 36:36 - ( 2 )
Exodus 36:38
Exodus 37:2 - ( 2 )
Exodus 37:3
Exodus 37:4
Exodus 37:6
Exodus 37:7
Exodus 37:11 - ( 2 )
Exodus 37:12
Exodus 37:13
Exodus 37:15
Exodus 37:16
Exodus 37:17
Exodus 37:22
Exodus 37:23
Exodus 37:24
Exodus 37:26 - ( 2 )
Exodus 37:27
Exodus 37:28
Exodus 38:24 - ( 2 )
Exodus 39:2
Exodus 39:3
Exodus 39:5
Exodus 39:6
Exodus 39:8
Exodus 39:13
Exodus 39:15
Exodus 39:16 - ( 2 )
Exodus 39:17
Exodus 39:19
Exodus 39:25
Exodus 39:30
Exodus 40:5
Numbers 7:14
Numbers 7:20
Numbers 7:84
Numbers 7:86
Numbers 8:4
Numbers 22:18
Numbers 24:13
Numbers 31:22
Numbers 31:50
Numbers 31:51
Numbers 31:52
Numbers 31:54
Deuteronomy 7:25
Deuteronomy 8:13
Deuteronomy 17:17
Deuteronomy 29:17
Joshua 6:19
Joshua 6:24
Joshua 7:21
Joshua 7:24
Joshua 22:8
Judges 8:26
1 Samuel 6:8
1 Samuel 6:11
1 Samuel 6:15
2 Samuel 1:24
2 Samuel 8:7
2 Samuel 8:10
2 Samuel 8:11
2 Samuel 12:30
2 Samuel 21:4
1 Kings 6:20
1 Kings 6:21 - ( 3 )
1 Kings 6:22 - ( 2 )
1 Kings 6:28
1 Kings 6:30
1 Kings 6:32 - ( 2 )
1 Kings 6:35
1 Kings 7:48 - ( 2 )
1 Kings 7:49 - ( 2 )
1 Kings 7:50 - ( 2 )
1 Kings 7:51
1 Kings 9:11
1 Kings 9:14
1 Kings 9:28
1 Kings 10:2
1 Kings 10:10
1 Kings 10:11
1 Kings 10:14 - ( 2 )
1 Kings 10:16 - ( 2 )
1 Kings 10:17 - ( 2 )
1 Kings 10:18
1 Kings 10:21 - ( 2 )
1 Kings 10:22
1 Kings 10:25
1 Kings 12:28
1 Kings 14:26
1 Kings 15:15
1 Kings 15:18
1 Kings 15:19
1 Kings 20:3
1 Kings 20:5
1 Kings 20:7
1 Kings 22:48
2 Kings 5:5
2 Kings 7:8
2 Kings 12:13
2 Kings 12:18
2 Kings 14:14
2 Kings 16:8
2 Kings 18:14
2 Kings 18:16
2 Kings 20:13
2 Kings 23:33
2 Kings 23:35 - ( 2 )
2 Kings 24:13
2 Kings 25:15 - ( 2 )
1 Chronicles 18:7
1 Chronicles 18:10
1 Chronicles 18:11
1 Chronicles 20:2
1 Chronicles 21:25
1 Chronicles 22:14
1 Chronicles 22:16
1 Chronicles 28:14 - ( 2 )
1 Chronicles 28:15 - ( 2 )
1 Chronicles 28:16
1 Chronicles 28:17 - ( 2 )
1 Chronicles 28:18 - ( 2 )
1 Chronicles 29:2 - ( 2 )
1 Chronicles 29:3
1 Chronicles 29:4 - ( 2 )
1 Chronicles 29:5 - ( 2 )
1 Chronicles 29:7
2 Chronicles 1:15
2 Chronicles 2:7
2 Chronicles 2:14
2 Chronicles 3:4
2 Chronicles 3:5
2 Chronicles 3:6 - ( 2 )
2 Chronicles 3:7
2 Chronicles 3:8
2 Chronicles 3:9 - ( 2 )
2 Chronicles 3:10
2 Chronicles 4:7
2 Chronicles 4:8
2 Chronicles 4:20
2 Chronicles 4:21 - ( 2 )
2 Chronicles 4:22 - ( 2 )
2 Chronicles 5:1
2 Chronicles 8:18
2 Chronicles 9:1
2 Chronicles 9:9
2 Chronicles 9:10
2 Chronicles 9:13 - ( 2 )
2 Chronicles 9:14
2 Chronicles 9:15 - ( 2 )
2 Chronicles 9:16 - ( 2 )
2 Chronicles 9:17
2 Chronicles 9:18
2 Chronicles 9:20 - ( 2 )
2 Chronicles 9:21
2 Chronicles 9:24
2 Chronicles 12:9
2 Chronicles 13:11
2 Chronicles 15:18
2 Chronicles 16:2
2 Chronicles 16:3
2 Chronicles 21:3
2 Chronicles 24:14
2 Chronicles 25:24
2 Chronicles 32:27
2 Chronicles 36:3
Ezra 1:4
Ezra 1:6
Ezra 1:9
Ezra 1:10
Ezra 1:11
Ezra 2:69
Ezra 5:14
Ezra 7:15
Ezra 7:16
Ezra 7:18
Ezra 8:25
Ezra 8:26
Ezra 8:27 - ( 2 )
Ezra 8:28
Ezra 8:30
Ezra 8:33
Nehemiah 7:70
Nehemiah 7:71
Nehemiah 7:72
Esther 1:6
Esther 1:7
Esther 8:15
Job 3:15
Job 22:24 - ( 2 )
Job 23:10
Job 28:1
Job 28:6
Job 28:15
Job 28:16
Job 28:17 - ( 2 )
Job 28:19
Job 31:24 - ( 2 )
Job 36:19
Job 42:11
Psalms 19:10 - ( 2 )
Psalms 21:3
Psalms 45:9
Psalms 45:13
Psalms 68:13
Psalms 72:15
Psalms 105:37
Psalms 115:4
Psalms 119:72
Psalms 119:127 - ( 2 )
Psalms 135:15
Proverbs 3:14
Proverbs 8:10
Proverbs 8:19 - ( 2 )
Proverbs 11:22
Proverbs 16:16
Proverbs 17:3
Proverbs 20:15
Proverbs 22:1
Proverbs 25:11
Proverbs 25:12 - ( 2 )
Proverbs 27:21
Ecclesiastes 2:8
Song of Solomon 1:10
Song of Solomon 1:11
Song of Solomon 3:10
Song of Solomon 5:11
Song of Solomon 5:14
Song of Solomon 5:15
Isaiah 2:7
Isaiah 2:20
Isaiah 13:12
Isaiah 13:17
Isaiah 30:22
Isaiah 31:7
Isaiah 39:2
Isaiah 40:19
Isaiah 46:6
Isaiah 60:6
Isaiah 60:9
Isaiah 60:17
Jeremiah 4:30
Jeremiah 10:4
Jeremiah 10:9
Jeremiah 52:19 - ( 2 )
Lamentations 4:1 - ( 2 )
Lamentations 4:2
Ezekiel 7:19 - ( 2 )
Ezekiel 16:13
Ezekiel 16:17
Ezekiel 27:22
Ezekiel 28:4
Ezekiel 28:13
Ezekiel 38:13
Daniel 2:32
Daniel 2:35
Daniel 2:38
Daniel 2:45
Daniel 3:1
Daniel 5:4
Daniel 5:7
Daniel 5:16
Daniel 5:23
Daniel 5:29
Daniel 10:5
Daniel 11:8
Daniel 11:38
Daniel 11:43
Hosea 2:8
Hosea 8:4
Joel 3:5
Nahum 2:9
Habakkuk 2:19
Zephaniah 1:18
Haggai 2:8
Zechariah 4:2
Zechariah 6:11
Zechariah 9:3
Zechariah 13:9
Zechariah 14:14
Malachi 3:3
Matthew 2:11
Matthew 10:9
Matthew 23:16
Matthew 23:17 - ( 2 )
Acts 3:6
Acts 17:29
Acts 20:33
1 Corinthians 3:12
1 Timothy 2:9
2 Timothy 2:20
Hebrews 9:4
James 2:2
James 5:3
1 Peter 1:7
1 Peter 1:18
1 Peter 3:3
Revelation 3:18
Revelation 4:4
Revelation 9:7
Revelation 9:20
Revelation 17:4
Revelation 18:12
Revelation 18:16
Revelation 21:18
Revelation 21:21

Lord Macaulay
(Fri Jun 27 1997 12:37)
Mooney, this should wrap things up.
Soon fades the spell, soon comes the night;
Say will it not be the same,
Whether we played black or white,
Whether we lost or won the game?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 12:45)


Not to put too fine of a point on it, but have you noticed that GOLD and stuff has been in a continual downward spiral since you finally discovered how to post those charts of yours? Just an observation my friend. Maybe Mooney's Louis speach has something like "Post no more lest thou really screwest things up!" HAHA ( :- ) )

Steve (Perth - Western Australia)
(Fri Jun 27 1997 12:46)
EARL: Great charts today. I have finally worked out that I am a Chronic bear. Charts help you become one. You may find this chart interesting in light of your Yen currency comparison.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 12:50)
Cherokee Eldorado Auric Aurophile - you guys on vacation or what? What has happened to this chat group ( other than a slight "correction" in gold ) ? Gold could go much lower, folks. The only thing you can build in times like this is character. It may take 15 years to get whole. How long you got? Market investors in 1929 got whole ( depending on their mix ) in 20 years or so, n'est ce pas? Unless gold and the other PMs are the modern-day equivalent of United Buggy Whip & Corset ( which is a stretch ) , it is hard to imagine that things won't improve.

Odds are very good that sooner or later we will come out ahead in PMs. This does not necessarily happen in the event of an unparalleled era of world peace and prosperity ( the "Pax Clintonia", for you history buffs ) , which could drive gold down near the price of scrapple, in accordance with the stated expectations of some pundits. The odds are high, however, of one or more of the individually unlikely destabilizing potentialities occurring. Note today's news about the resurgence of activity along the geologic fault line on the US west coast, for example. Fold in the odds of a nuclear warhead taking flight, climatic disaster of a global scale, social, political, and military upheaval spawned by the demons of sectarianism, racism, nationalism and tribalism, and an international financial downward spiral triggered by multitudinous subtle economic and mass-psychological factors, and you have a suspense-filled global melodrama, humankind's own soap opera, awash in crisis, teetering perpetually on the edge of disaster.

Clearly, the end ( or something that will resemble the end ) is near. "Near" is the operative word. Astronomers tell us the universe will go cold in a "few" zillion years. Is that "near"? Probably, "near" is more like ten years.

Not that we Cassandras, long in PMs, hope for calamity. For us, a more ideal scenario involves a realignment of the economies of the MINs ( major industrialized nations ) in such a way as to manifest and expose the essential values of GSP&P. The odds of this? Approximately 20-30%, IMHO, with a ( possibly ) huge resultant leap in PM prices, and that is what I am betting on.

Cato the Elder said, "Carthago delenda est". A culture or civilization, even a global one, that is on a wrong foundation will not endure.

Today's WSJ reports that most Americans expect a recession within the next five years. They expect things to be better ( economically ) next year, but worse in five years.

In the meantime, GSP&P ( the precious metals ) have a huge potential upside. I don't see why everybody wouldn't want to have some stake in that. Jump in! The water's great! But swim AYOR ( at your own risk ) .

Enjoy the weekend, friends.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 12:52)
On Sale
Why are all you folks grousing about the price of gold? Sell one unit of your Dow Jones RIGHT NOW for US$7717. Take the money and buy 22.96 ounces. If you did it the other day you could have had 23.5 ounces. This is the sale of a lifetime. It hasn't been this cheap since 1966. What are you going to do, wait until it gets to $850 and by again like you did in 1980? Can you get a few more ounces for the $7717 later? Mabye. So buy some now to test it. Buy MORE when it changes $10.00 either up or down. This is SALE TIME!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 12:55)
Front - 10:15



(Fri Jun 27 1997 12:59)
@2 weeks
2 weeks--why not just short gold and save yourself some breath?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 13:00)
@the market
2Weeks -- Kind of looking for 336 on the Aug contract today. May or may not happen today, but there is a good possibility. Probably a bit more on Monday.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 13:04)
MY, MY, how busy we've all been this morning!

Mid-Size Institution
(Fri Jun 27 1997 13:07)
Gold ( US$338 ) 2-Buy Felix Freeman
Not the End of the World As We Know It June 25, 1997 ( 2:30pm )
1-Yr. Spot Target: $375

A With the apparent failure of gold to fulfill the gloomiest projections and immediately collapse following its decline below $338,
it is worth questioning the further downside risk in the sector. While
the London fix of $336 on Monday was the lowest since March 1993, it
was not quite the lowest price of the year, and subsequently gold has
managed to rally back to as high as $340.50. This indicates that we
are actually in a stable downtrend, with physical buying lending
support, and a trading range at present of $330-$342; the closest
"break-out" point is actually to the upside. We remain cautious but
have room for optimism.

The bullion market is being driven more by sentiment than reality.
Fears of Central Bank mobilizations abound and there are various gloom-mongers pointing to $230-$250 as a downside target for gold, a
figure we do not consider to be realistic. While there have
undoubtedly been some undeclared sales this year, and far more loans
and swaps from Central Banks, most of the major pieces of news from
Central Banks would not actually involve the sale of any physical
gold. Now, finally, there has been a faint glimmer of hope that
gold retains some role in the reserve system, with Japanese Prime
Minister Hashimoto's remarks that he might, under certain
circumstances, be prepared to sell US treasuries and buy gold. This
appears to have been part of a package of statements, as it was
followed up by comments that he did not want to see the Yen reduced to a regional currency. Q1 net Japanese purchases of US treasuries were
equivalent to a purchase of 1,110 tonnes of gold, so any translation
of rumour to reality would be immensely positive. The ongoing
uncertainty over EMU is also unlikely to lead to much further negative
sentiment for gold, this having factored in a timely implementation,
so delays or drop-outs should be mildly positive.

Of the 26,500 tonnes of gold held by Central Banks, excluding 6,358
tonnes held by official institutions, some 18,310 tonnes ( 56% ) are
held by large holders that apparently have a "stable" view toward
their bullion, and do not lend significantly. Of the balance of 8,350
tonnes, some 40% may have already been lent out or otherwise
committed, leaving approximately 5,000 tonnes of "mobile" gold, which
is by no means all really mobile. In 1996 secondary disposals of gold
( not all of which would have been Central Bank derived ) amounted to
509 tonnes ( GFMS ) . We estimate that if the strength of physical demand
seen in Q1 persists then a secondary disposal of around 770 tonnes
( 15.5% ) will be required this year. While Central Bank gold will
undoubtedly become more mobile over the coming years, economic growth
spurring jewellery demand should require ongoing disposals of at least
500 tonnes/year.

If prices move much further down we would expect to see some real
production cutbacks, although prices would probably have to persist
low for at least a quarter. Excluding FX changes ( especially in South
Africa ) , at $330 gold around 22% ( 515 tonnes ) of the world's
production is cash-flow negative, increasing to around 35% ( 820
tonnes ) at $300 gold. Using the normal sensitivity of gold demand to
price, production cutbacks of this size would be expected to have a
positive impact on the gold price of $40 and $65 respectively. This
suggests an equilibrium price of $365-$370 with secondary disposals
running at 1996's 509 tonne level. Australian and South African
operations would be worst affected, with 1996 average cash costs of
$294 and $293 respectively ( GFMS ) . North American companies generally
come off quite well; we can identify only eight mines which might be
forced shut at $330 and 14 at $300, although changes in mine plans
could inhibit output from some others.

Despite the major sell-off in the senior stocks on Monday the group
remains in the same trading range relative to gold that it has been in
since late March, showing that, as yet, there has been no significant
shift in sentiment toward the sector. Some of the current downtrend,
especially in the juniors, may be the effect of quarter-end book
cleaning by funds. If this is the case, then a relaxation of the
downtrend in the first part of July should be interpreted as setting
the stage for more positive developments. The NPV premium has now
contracted from 12% to 5% in the last two weeks and could yet contract
further. A downside target for the TSE Golds of around 8,000 could
thus be achieved either by further premium contraction to a slight
discount or a decline in bullion to the mid $320s. We changed our
recommendation on the sector from Underweight to Slightly Overweight
on May 9; while this may have been slightly premature, we feel that
the indications are positive enough not to move to a more bearish
position unless the stocks break down out of their current trading

(Fri Jun 27 1997 13:14)
salted core
Since is spot gold is down last I looked, I humbly submit___

Over heard in the locker room this morning: Man says to his
wife, "Hon, bring me my Burgher King shorts."

Wife: "What? what are Burgher King shorts?

Man: Home of the whopper.

and one more:

Why doesn't your girl friend want to go to a polish theater?
Because she always has to sit behind a pole.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 13:23)
@the market
That spike down even beat my expectations for the day!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 13:38)
Steve of Perth: A dove be winging it's way to ye.
And I'm going out for some sun! BBL

(Fri Jun 27 1997 13:42)
In the light of golds sickly performance for many months, Gold Seer Aurophile examines the noble metals history, symptoms & prognosis. See Analysis section:

(Fri Jun 27 1997 13:47)
@the market
My current thinking is that Monday could very well be an outside reversal day in gold.

George S. Cole
(Fri Jun 27 1997 13:52)
gold stock volume
Gold stock volume generally modest today. No signs of a selling climax yet. Hopefully soon.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 13:52)
Watching gold and stocks is like watching fireworks. There is almost always a grand finale. Unless of course the fireworks are cheap! But these are not cheap fireworks. However just like watching fireworks, you sometimes have to wonder if this is the grand finale or are they just getting better leading up to the grand finale?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 13:53)
which alter ego will appear next? bt is bs.

during basing periods, making money is almost
impossible. the reasons for the price gyrations
are too numerous to list. does it matter which
one causes the inevitable bull run to bittle
lig horn and beyond? no,--- only that the trend
is not anyones friend, at the moment.

the best way, imo, to play gold and silver
at the moment, is with options. you go in
and buy monthly as they become available.
make it a habit to acquire several per month.
the cost is nil compared to the potential return.
it is also less painful than futures during this

yes, options are the ticket, ----for the time being.

big trader is a big dummy, as has been stated from the
beginning. big heads come, and big heads go, it was
none to soon.

believe what YOU "see" and what YOUR mind tells you.
big dummies are around every corner.

now, ----when is ted coming back?

tort---hope you are short beans and copper. crude is
looking good, again. the eurodollar is in a VERY tight
channel. come on greenie beenie, raise those rates!

cherokee!; ) smoke signals are erupting from all points. watch
for thinly veiled ones, as they are filled with
miniature bt's.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 13:56)
Thoughts on BT
"Heard on Kitco Street" was great!! Definitely a Kitco classic.

Something I have been meaning to write for the last few days is how exactly a BT "apocolapse" would actually play out. If the recent BT posts are to be believed ( and the torrent of negative news about gold after his last posts kind of lend credence that it is the same BT as in the past ) then today he is dressed in his sunday finest standing at the wicket and asking politely for his gold.

I suspect the real question will be what happens after his polite request. First they will tell him to hold off for another month. He said he will decline to hold off - no more mr. nice guy. Then what happens?? I suspect this type of situation has never happened before and no one really knows...

Best guess would be that the market will declare force majeur ( "Yeah we sold you gold that we don't own and now we can't deliver" ) . What happens after that will be very interesting... Does BT get his money back? Who will have to refund it?

And most importantly: What will they have to SELL in order to give BT his money back.

As far as gold goes, I really do not have a clue how this will play out. It may just mean that the open interest collapses and there are now fewer buyers out there for paper plays - which could be price neutral.

I don't know what else BT could do to force the situation short of sending the Chinese navy ( such as it is ) down the Thames....

(Fri Jun 27 1997 13:57)
What's going on here??
It took me a while to read all that I had missed this morning. Then I had to get out the Bible and check on ALL those verses...that took the longest ( but I bet not as long as it took to write it ) . And as long as we seem to be on the subject of betting... I bet that my Dad can get beat up by your Dad!

These are wild times and wild time invoke wild responses... I guess

I will repeat my little poem because I can't write lymericks

GOLD will go down!
GOLD will go UP!
I don't know,
God, I give up!

How about some fine Idioms
Time heals all wounds... OR Every DOG has it's day... OR oh... FAGITABOUTIT!

Now I must go fertilize the Avocado trees so I can later have some delicious Guacamole to lather my fish tacos wilsth I slurp Margaritas. I must be hungry! And only then can I fully digest all that has been said this morning ( or afternoon or evening for others )

AWAY!!???!! i think not


SOMEONE has been reading the Jake B. site...oh my!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 13:58)
@the market
For something that is so 'worthless', it sure has been taking a long time for it to actually become so! If they all think it needs to go to 330 or 300 or 250, why don't they just let it?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 14:01)
Market Emergency
In other words BT is likely contemplating all the issues that aurator in his 12:24 post mentioned about market emergencies... ( The ultimate gold crises: gold owners making money!! :-o )

(Fri Jun 27 1997 14:04)
@for U
LONDON, June 27 ( Reuter ) - The gold price slumped to its lowest level in nearly 4 1/4 years on Friday afternoon under pressure from a stronger dollar and short selling by the professionals, dealers said.

It was fixed at $336.55 per ounce down from $337.30 at the morning fix to record its lowest level since April 1, 1993 of $336.35. On Comex, the August gold futures contract was down $1.90 at $337.90.

Gold was under pressure early when selling from the market professionals made a test of the year's low, and the lowest traded price in over four years at $336.15 was likely.

The price had bounced slightly Thursday evening but dealers said this merely reflected the professionals covering their positions taken in anticipation of further losses, when unexpectedly the price stablilised at around $337.00.

``There has been good support at $337.00 from buyers of physical metal but if that goes we could see a test of the low quite quickly,'' one dealer said.

Shortly after the gold fixing, the market had slipped another few cents and bids and offers ranged round the low.

Many dealers and market analysts forecast a rise next for gold if only because all the auguries suggested otherwise.

``When a market looks as bad as this it is a sure sign the price is at the bottom,'' one dealer said.

He said the many speculative positions taken out as bets that the price would fall further would need to be covered if the market failed to fulfil these expectations.

``That could be enough to turn it round although it may not set it on fire,'' the dealer said.

One analyst took the broader view that something exceptional was needed to lift the price given inflation was under control in the major economies and there was little chance of a financial crisis reactivating gold's safe haven status.

``The outside parameters have to change to stimulate fresh buying,'' the analyst said referring to the financial calm in which gold prices were suffering.

Another analyst tok the view that relatively drastic action by the gold producers would be needed to re-stimulate buying.

``Shutting down a few high cost mine shafts in South Africa might make a difference,'' he suggested.

Meanwhile the silver price shed only a few cents to $4.73/$4.75, platinum was unchanged at $417.00/$422.00 and palladium was down $3.75 at $192.25/$197.25.

11:03 06-27-97

(Fri Jun 27 1997 14:06) last thing
$800 DOLLARS an OZ! by next year??!!??!? Have you been smoking Cherokees peace pipe???!!!! Pophov much??



Short Bull(@ Been on Vacation)
(Fri Jun 27 1997 14:07)
Midday Comments
I invested 50% of mutual fund money on Monday in Rydex Precious Metals,
and after a 1.00 XAU drop on Tuesday I got a pop of $2.00 on Wednesday
and another paltry .20 on the XAU yesterday which was my signal to get
out. I will likely be putting in 50% next Monday or Tuesday again to
try going long the XAU another time. I want to be 50% invested around
94-95 and the other 50% around the 90 XAU support.

Meanwhile I am playing the long side of stocks in my mutual funds with
a switch from Rydex Precious Metals to the Rydex Nova ( 150% S&P ) and
am looking for a nice pop to hopefully 8100 DOW in the next couple weeks,
and then looking for a big sell-off.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 14:07)
@the market
Once again it's a Friday. Many traders will not want to hold the metal over the weekend. At least not unless they have some keen insight or knowledge available that we don't seem to have. Therefore, I am expecting a decline into the close as they liquidate their daily positions, if they still have any!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 14:15)
Bad day today, bought gold to early it seems. Next support ( poor one ) at 330 nextone around 325 - thisone must hold! I still expect the dollar to go down against d-mark in the near future ( analysis wrong if it climbs higher than 1.7430 sorry, I watch the dollar from europe ) , than should help the metal.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 14:24)
to Short Bull
Short, Are you switching to Rydex URSA when the dow hits 8100?

I have been in URSA for a while, losing my shorts, but plan to
stick it out.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 14:28)
@the market
If gold doesn't hold his 335 ( Aug ) level Monday, it can easily drop to 332 or lower. If you see it happen, BUY it, IMHO!

Steve (Perth - Western Australia)
(Fri Jun 27 1997 14:31)
Greetings from Perth:
( nice photos ) from State Govt Tourist Bureau.
Have a great Friday. We've had ours already. We get up Saturday morning to see how the Yankie market has made or broken the other investment markets. It is great being ahead of the US, even if we are "Down Under".

(Fri Jun 27 1997 14:59)
@...third world commodity
Meanwhile, Indian gold demand is seen seasonally weak heading into the monsoon months also. India is the largest gold consuming country in the world, with demand estimated at 507.8 tonnes in 1996, compared to
345.3 tonnes for the U.S., according to the World Gold Council.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 15:00)
Quote source.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 15:02)
@..sorry folks
Quote source:

(Fri Jun 27 1997 15:18)
Regarding bondos today....
..."Also lifting prices was a Federal Reserve coupon pass in the five- to 30-year sector. A coupon pass, or permanent purchase of coupon-bearing securities, increases the size of the money supply, lowering interest rates in the process."

George S. Cole
(Fri Jun 27 1997 15:20)
shorts and longs
In this bear market whenever the spec shorts have taken a lopsided position, the gold price has gone their way fairly quickly. When this gold bear ends will it be because the shorts finally overextend themselves? Or will it reflect a recognition by the shorts that no more blood can be squeezed out of a bar, and they reverse themselves and GO LONG? Comments!

The widespread expectation of steep additional declines in the gold price is a positive sign. Bear markets generally do not end with the price declining to say $335 and the consensus worrying about an erosion to $325. No they end when prices drop to $335, $330 or $325, and people start worrying about a plunge to $300, $275, or $250. Bear markets always end amid great fear and we are getting mighty close to that stage now.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 15:36)
George S. Cole: I agree with your analysis that eventually the shorts will stop shorting. But I do not agree that there is any great "fear" at the current price or 330 or will be at 300 or even $250. Those holding gold or shares will feel some panic but IMHO the vast majority of gold watchers have been expecting a major price decline for several months now. It is only the continuation of a long term trend

Gold is not a commodity in demand. Most of the world is not expecting an imminent collapse in the US$. It really is that simple. Things may change and eventually gold will get close to the cost of production but in the meantime there is no fear, no panic, no buyers.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 15:45)
to fundy
We contrarians thank you, sir.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 15:45)
George S. Cole- you are exactly RIGHT. I am more convensed after today's
action the whoever has got what ever money is, will be able to buy
the world on sale but the deal will be better than ever now. That land I
was expecting to buy for 10 cents on the dollar now will be 5 cents.

I see all then credit card paid for boats and jet skies headed to the lake just now. Yum, Yum, buy it on sale for cash soos I can go buy some groceries and feed my po debt ridden family.

If you notice PAASF and SSRIF were both up today, CRAZY! BOTTOM???

Tally Ho

itsy bitsy trader
(Fri Jun 27 1997 15:49)
@water spout
Bigum Trader full of salt! Am I upset. No. I own KRY! The best gambling game in town!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 15:51)
You're welcome general. If you see any signs of panic or fear on the faces of those who hold no gold please post toute de suite.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 15:53)
George: The shorts will NOW begin to short heavily. The reason has to do with the capitulation you are always looking for to indicate a bottom. The shorts know that the present weakness, and that empty feeling gold longs now have in their stomachs, offers the perfect opportunity to ambush and force a violent drop resulting in capitulation. Then, but not before will the big shorts turn and go long.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 16:03)
Religious Bottoms
George S. Cole: Before LBMA and BT came along I was hoping for some type of gottdamerung ( ? ) blowout on the downside. Psycologically I would be very happy with 300 on high volumes - 278 ( the previous bottom ) would be esthetically pleasing ( along with Dow 10,000 ) . If, as many have argued here - particularly DA, Comex is a proxy representative for the LBMA and "off market" markets then this would make an excellent bottom. If it isn't then who knows how to look at this...

(Fri Jun 27 1997 16:18)
LogicBank @ 15:53

You hit the nail on the head.



(Fri Jun 27 1997 16:19)
itsy bitsy trader- I got KRY also, the only thing keepin me above water.
several weeks ago I took down the TRADING ROOM sign on my door and put
up CASINO, KRY bein the best crap shoot in town.

Spoke too early on SSRIF, now down 1/8.

Beer time!

Tally HO

(Fri Jun 27 1997 16:22)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Lemme see . . . Spot gold closed at 334.55 today. I guess Asian buying can't hold it up anymore. Wait, what Asian buying? Hmmmmm . . . Maybe Hong Kong's future boat people feel that they have hoards enough of the precious metal. Don't expect to see much of it reach the free world, however. Corrupt officials and pirates will take most of it, as with Viet Nam's boat people. BTW, saw a report either on CNN or CNBC that said the PLA soldiers dispatched to HK make an average five dollars per month -- not even enough to buy a beer in a Hong Kong pub. I wonder what that kind of disparity will do to morale? In other words, what generally happens to a society when those charged with protecting it are seething with resentment? Mayhem, that's what. And flux and chaos and corruption. When will official corruption reach its full stride? My guess: July 1, 1997, 12:00:01 AM. Re earlier comments that Beijing doesn't want to kill the goose that lays the golden egg -- Of course, it does not. It lusts for the wealth free markets and democracy can bring, but is not about to grant the kind of liberties necessary to create it. I mean, Jeez, if the Democrats can't keep the economy running on all cylinders ( imagine if they controlled both houses of Congress and the White House ) , what chance do Communists have? The Dems would surely screw it up royally, and they aren't even socialists, much less communists! Get ready for a tide of refugees, as the murderers and thieves in Beijing assert their control.

George S. Cole
(Fri Jun 27 1997 16:37)
XAU and HUI down just modestly today despite $3.90 drop in August gold, and both closed considerably above their lows. Some of the gold stock players seem to be expecting a bullion rally next week. If the gold stocks had plunged and bullion had fallen just modestly, that would really have been awful action. Today not as bad as appears on the surface.

Extreme weakness in SA gold shares not surprising given their relatively high production costs. These go down more in gold bears, but go up more in gold bulls.

Still seems to me the gold bulls have grown much more pessimistic the past few weeks -- a very good sign. In retrospect, bullion's present problems were signalled by the yellow metal's pathetic response to Hashimoto's comments. When you can't go up on good news .......

Question -- if gold bullion was to jump $10 one day next week and the XAU surged 10% that day, how many here would be buyers. Very few I suspect. Tough to do after so many failed rallies when buying on even a small advance resulted in losses. But that probably is how the next gold bull will begin. Most bulls will be afraid to buy until an uptrend is firmly established. And by then prices will be FAR ABOVE THEIR LOWS.

That is the nature of markets. Very few get in near the bottom. And very few get out near the top. Fear and greed in action!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 16:50)
and more...
If you can't beat 'em join 'em. Not!

One doesn't jump ship but, merrily, goes down to the Galley to pillage/plunder the jewels ravage the FINE BETTYS! while the others aren't watching. Then he sleeps it off. And when he awakens from his luxurious slumber he is ready to fight and win again. That Pirate Bear Ship is a salty bunch though, my hat is off... AAARRRRGGGGGHHHHHH MATEY!

But you had better keep one eye open while asleep...

You can't keep a good man down.

AWAY :- (


(Fri Jun 27 1997 16:51)
American cowboys with laptops, lassos forgotten ,no more trivial pursuit .Faces on the media hype, Global Incest with no interruption ,Yes chips making decisions on the new frontier.My what a great time to enjoy Corona Extra .To all the happy bears lets ride the elastic band for a few days .

(Fri Jun 27 1997 17:00)
GOLD AVERAGES - RJ 6/12/97 04:35
50% = $383.00 US. That is our goal. Rememember that #.

I mean after we hit 335.00 "six of one, half dozen of the other" times.

AWAY :- )


(Fri Jun 27 1997 17:07)
@George Cole
George S. Cole: Once the rally starts , I'm counting on you to let us know when we're getting close to the top so I can get out. I don't plan to get sucked in like the last time when gold rallied to 417 and thought it was going much higher

Learning Fast
(Fri Jun 27 1997 17:14)
@emotional roller coaster
I'm running low on powder and left my long position active longer than I will next time. I could sell , I could hold and maybe run out of powder or I could short an equal amount and ride down or take a small loss on the way up. I am leaning towards a straddle to limit a loss and possibly increase profits........Comments? Thanks in advance

George S. Cole
(Fri Jun 27 1997 17:14)
Changing definition of a goldbug:

!980: Someone who believes the yellow metal is the best of all possible investments and should be held forever.

1996: Someone who believes the brief move above $400 is for real

1997: Someone who believes the gold bear will reverse north of $300.

George S. Cole
(Fri Jun 27 1997 17:15)
Changing definition of a goldbug:

!980: Someone who believes the yellow metal is the best of all possible investments and should be held forever.

1996: Someone who believes the brief move above $400 is for real

1997: Someone who believes the gold bear will reverse north of $300.

George S. Cole
(Fri Jun 27 1997 17:15)
Changing definition of a goldbug:

!980: Someone who believes the yellow metal is the best of all possible investments and should be held forever.

1996: Someone who believes the brief move above $400 is for real

1997: Someone who believes the gold bear will reverse north of $300.

George S. Cole
(Fri Jun 27 1997 17:16)
Changing definition of a goldbug:

!980: Someone who believes the yellow metal is the best of all possible investments and should be held forever.

1996: Someone who believes the brief move above $400 is for real

1997: Someone who believes the gold bear will reverse north of $300.

George S. Cole
(Fri Jun 27 1997 17:17)
Changing definition of a goldbug:

!980: Someone who believes the yellow metal is the best of all possible investments and should be held forever.

1996: Someone who believes the brief move above $400 is for real

1997: Someone who believes the gold bear will reverse north of $300.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 17:18)
The Masters
To Ron: Who are the masters in Hong Kong? Markets are the masters of us all. The Soviets found that out, the Chinese should have learned it during the "Great Leap Forward". The US will re-learn it soon. The lesson has to be learned over and over again every few generations.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 17:19)
Seems Rubin and Greenman were in the trading pits all day, one working Forex and the other Bondos and SPOOs. MF managers also pitched in. Markets were clearly underimpressed.$INDU&time_period=1-minute%20Bars&bars=600?wstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&ke.

XAU held up very well in the face of a steep decline in the price of gold. With due respect to NotaGoldbug, both DJII and XAU are signalling a turn for next week.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 17:23)
@learning fast
You are leaning fast. I mean learning fast.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 17:27)
George.s.cole It's time for a new keyboard?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 17:46)
bt is history. he evidently asked for delivery and
was met with histrionic cackles and a selling spree.

i suspect a chinese silk-farmer with ties to the cali
cartel, who knows imelda marcos and ida amin dada
as the next market maven and mover. you heard it first

(Fri Jun 27 1997 18:10)
George S. Cole- was that you at 17:17?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 18:31)
George Cole - YES! Please answer. Was that your post at 17:17? Regardless of whether it was or it wasn't, one or more of our 'entity' friends, ( ala John Dragoo Hepcat ) , has been posting lately using other peoples handles. I posted a message earlier today that 'someone' had posted a message at 10:03 using my 'handle'. It has since been erased by Bart, but I don't believe that this is the best way to handle the situation, or that Bart should have to shoulder all the extra work, trying to make up for the mental deficiencies of 'entities', that try and plague us with rude comments, or by posting using other peoples handles. I hope Bart can find a simple solution as soon as possible for everyone's sake.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 18:32)
news release ahead of their time
The spin available now....quoting newsrelease of JUNE 29

(Fri Jun 27 1997 18:38)
there's hope might get a little worse before it gets much better...

(Fri Jun 27 1997 18:41)
nomercy -- Looks like Reuter's needs a new keyboard! :- ) )

Just a thought, what if the FOMC raises rates next week? :- ) )

It's not so far fetched, after all the European Central Bankers have declaired the Nazis gold, theirs... And no one has complained.... So who is selling gold?

Long Bond chart coming soon.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 19:00)
@the scene
I'm expecting another 3-4 dollar down day on Monday, then a very nice shot up! If I don't see that kind of down day Monday, I still expect a nice shot up! I'm talking about gold here. Perhaps even a nice outside reversal as a lot of shorts cover temporarily. Beyond that, I will not hazard an opinion.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 19:01)
Panda...if they were to raise rates it would be'll never see it..they want a strong market to finance their HUGE DEBT...always creating misdirections to fulfil their are dominated by manipulators...until catastrophe strikes...whence they cannot cover the meantime their marketing psychology works...perception...perception...perception...its all smokes and mirrors...THEY NEED TO FUND THEIR CURRENT DEFICIT...AND SERVICE THEIR DEBT - 5 TRILLION and GROWING.....If things are so great and they still are running a deficit, what happens, when there's a further shortfall?...goldbugs bent but do not break...valued goods...whether for vanity or investment has and will have human emotional appeal...worldwide..time is nearing where the "non-core" investors will not be able to pass up the oppurtunity to buy...including RJ

(Fri Jun 27 1997 19:09)
Boy! Talk about your bears! The Nightly Business Report had one on, a real live BEAR! Theis guy was bullish on the go-go tech stocks and is now looking for a twenty percent decline in the next four months. And here I thought they killed all the bears. :- ) )

Here's the Bond Chart, looks, 'constructive'. :- ) )

(Fri Jun 27 1997 19:12)
@the scene
Panda -- My current thinking is that is is VERY possible for the 'stox' to have a very bad day Monday! Can not say what the dollar or bonds will do though. I'll leave that for your postings.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 19:23)
Eldorado -- Just curious here, but do you or anyone else out there have a long term chart for SPOT copper? At least five years worth that they could post here? I saw a story last night that RevereWare ( the pots'n pans people ) will be raising prices due to the increase in base metals ( copper and zinc ) . For those asking, "What has this got to do with gold?" First, they're usually by-products of gold/silver mining. Second, copper and zinc are used in many industrial applications. If there are price pressures here.... Besides, the Supreme Court made a ruling in favor of one of those industries today. The kind that uses base metals like copper, zinc, and lead..... :- ) )

Be Back Later...

(Fri Jun 27 1997 19:30)
I stand corrected in my last post, it wasn't a ruling for an industry, but a ruling narrowly made against, "Jack booted thugs." I almost think they stood up for the Constitution. Wow, what a concept.... First a background check to purchase firearms, then a check for cigarettes, who knows? Perhaps we need a background check for gold bullion buyers? They are subversive, you know. :- ) )

Really gone now..... Back later...

(Fri Jun 27 1997 19:30)
@the scene
Panda -- I do not have tat kind of data about. I tend to go more with the flow of prices and trends than so-called fundamentals, though those are at least as important to support a trend or change in in trend.

Cherokee -- Corn maybe Tuesday! Maybe wheat also!

Mike Sheller
(Fri Jun 27 1997 19:44)
bettin the farm (funny farm)
Here's my wager, take it or leave it: Gold hits 331 twice, then rallies to 348.50 four times, before falling to 338 once. Then a rise to 445, reaction to 389.90, and a spike to 551.65. ( Maybe three, four times ) . Puts on futures reach 300,000 three times, then gold goes to 668.50 once. reacts to 556.80, and tears to 855.45 before coming back to 773 twice. Tops out at 1200 once in the year 2000, and then comes back to a place as yet undetermined. All this under a Full Moon. I got a one ounce maple leaf in my pocket I use to pry caps offa Molson's bottles that says this will all happen. I'll put it up against anyone's 50 oz platinum bar any time. ( by Gar! ) Any takers? No? I thought so.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 19:46)
@the scene
Panda -- Don't worry. It'll be jack-booted thug day soon enough. Can't happen any other way!

Mike Sheller
(Fri Jun 27 1997 19:50)
In the spirit
STEVE ( PERTH ) : Nice to see the lord postingf on Kitco. It seems you are a believer, and one who has a warm spot for astrolgers. Blessed are you Steve ( from Perth ) for flesh and blood have not shown you that. All in the spirit must know, in the end, that the Real Gold is in the inner life. Store up treasure in heaven, Gang, along with the K-rands and Maple Leafs! By the way, how is your Saturday? Haven't had ours yet! This is better than astrology for predicting the "future."

(Fri Jun 27 1997 19:52)
I have never posted on this site, but watch it constantly. Could someone just simply explain what would happen to gold if the interest rate is raised next week? I think it should go up, but I have seen the reverse stated.

Keep up the great's mind bending.


Mike Sheller
(Fri Jun 27 1997 19:53)
c'mon, you wanna piece a me?
OK, OK, how about 668.50 FOUR TIMES?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 20:07)
At Home
Elliott Wave Theorist out tonight. Very bullish on gold near term.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 20:10)
Mike 19:44
Can you get me a price on those Jan.'00 Calls @ 1200 strike? Or should I wait till they come in $5.00 increments? Decisions, decisions...

And with all due and great respect...God and Gold? There is a time and place.



(Fri Jun 27 1997 20:14)
@the scene
Mike Sheller -- I'm not that much of a betting man, else I might take you up on it. I typically have enough of a hard time with the next day, much less the next week, month, and year! I don't mind hearing the rational for a move or trend change, ( I haven't heard any beyond JRs "I kicked it and it didn't move", for going down ) , But that's how I stay alive. Got to trade the day-by-day numbers. I don't do stox. I'm not typically in the market for more than a day or two on any given trade, unless it is clearly on a longer term trend. But, sometimes even less than a day, even though I don't consider myself as being a day trader! So far, I've survived quite nicely without prognostications. My REAL fundamentals are as I've spoken here. My day-to-day trading corresponds to the numbers the best I can make them do it. Sometimes, I get the opportunity to post them here when they become 'clearer'. Other times, they are murkier and I do not know what to do with them except to stand aside until the murkiness subsides. But of my postings of today, I'll be trading by them come Monday! And by that, I also mean Sunday night if necessary! This is not to be meant as any kind of slight against prognostications. I only want to clarify how I trade.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 20:20)
DONALD.........Regarding your early morning post......

Yes indeed, I agree this has been a doozy of a bear market. However, I've done OK selling on some of false rallies as they spike up. My rule of thumb is to jump out after a 10% ( or so ) rise ( I'm strictly in mutuals -- I wish I had time to play options and the like ) .

I look at it this way: 10% is a nice annual return on investment. Once I hit a 10% ( or so ) spike, I dump into 5% cash and wait. If that only happens once, I have a 15% annual return in any given year. I hit a 9% early this year. I'm now all in again and if I hit a 10%'er again, and soak my heels at 5%, then I have ( roughly ) a 22% return on the chunk of change I use for playing the gold market.

If the "big one" hits this time around, I'll be ready. If not, I'll catch the next one.

Regarding real estate in a deflationary market: as a matter of fact, I am starting to liquidate all my rental real-estate holdings. Three reasons: I'm done with the headaches; I can put the cash to better use; and I just don't see RE doing well in the next few years.

Where exactly is your money invested??

(Fri Jun 27 1997 20:24)
Panda, Are you suggesting interest rates are looking to move higher?? If so,
why would you think this good for gold?? With lease rates for gold subject
to increase's to the same degree... I still think you believe that an overall market
correction will cause investors to jump on the gold bandwagon.. Not.. Unless
the fundamentals for gold begin to look up or gold just gets so oversold that
it is very cheep.. Gold will "Not" be the investment of choice in a general
correction... Someday religious goldbugs will realize that it was wonderful
when we could trade our goods and services with paper money... Yes,
governments do exploit the fact that they can use this to their fiscal advantage...
I really believe that the majority of goldbugs are conspiracy type theorists and
just need the "blanket of gold to keep them warm..

Does everyone realize that "All" investments are speculation??? and there is no
speculation more dangerous that one that is confidently viewed by the majority
as an investment?? Take long bonds in 1946 or gold in 1980.... Or stocks in 1997..

Please get real!!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 20:34)
@the scene
Notagoldbug -- It won't be a rate rise or a rate decrease in and of itself that'll cause gold to move up. Not this time! Let us just say that it'll be something a 'bit' more severe! Some real fear in the air! I will not claim to know what it'll be, but the trend of foreign governments not buying our debt begins to hit the mark! We'll all find out after the fact exactly what it was!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 20:36)
Front @12:45: Just beginning to catch up on the day's gossip and I come upon your ill considered comment ( :- ) ) . Now that I have that chart postin' stuff down to a science; you ain't seen nothin' yet. If it be that my charts are the source of gold's ills, RJ and NotaGoldbug will look like optimists.

Got some longer term data comin' next week to support additional overlays, spreads and such. ...... In the meantime: It's Friday. Let's raise some hell! Whaddya say?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 20:41)
Eldorado: That is a wonderful way to invest... Out of fear of the unknown??
Something is "going to happen" and it will be "big".. I will not hold my
breath.. I can tell you this.. More money has been wasting "waiting" for such
things than was ever lost as a result of catastrophic events..

(Fri Jun 27 1997 20:42)
@the scene
Notagoldbug -- One addendum; It'll be a day when it'll really be heard that the 'King is wearing no clothes'! Who it will take to proclaim it as such still remains to be seen. But, just maybe, it has already been done! We'll see!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 20:45)
2weeks @12:50: You said: "Gold could go much lower, folks. The only thing you can build in times like this is character. It may take 15 years to get whole."

I say: 15 years of character building makes for thin gruel at breakfast time. ...... Philosophy, ethics and character building are the exclusive province of those with a full stomach! ...... ( :- ) )

(Fri Jun 27 1997 20:48)
280+ pages of financial data, analysis, reports & studies - VIRTUAL ENCYCLOPEDIA OF PRECIOUS METALS. Use SEARCH GOLD-EAGLE button in HOT NEWS box to find what you seek - RAPIDLY:

(Fri Jun 27 1997 20:49)
@don't forget Hong Kong
.....One more reason why I am all in on the gold market: Hong Kong. I want to be on the launching pad when ( not if ) the commies start marching around with their goons and tanks.

Of course, the whole thing could be very peaceful and the folks in Bejeing will understand and leave HK alone.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 21:00)
The Point of Maximum Optimism by Michael Belkin (Strategic Investment)
Internationally acclaimed Market Analyst asserts over-valuation, irrational exuberance, expanded risk-exposure & technical hyper over-extension will cause horrendous losses when bubble bursts. See Editorials:

(Fri Jun 27 1997 21:01)
Panda: has an 18-year chart for the spot price of copper scrap. Don't know if that is what you were looking for . . . I'd post it here for you, but I don't have a clue how to cut out a piece of a larger pdf file and post it here. If you don't have Acrobat Reader and scrap copper prices are what you need, let me know and I'll try to do it.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 21:03)
@the flix
Time to go. BBL.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 21:18)
Fundy: You wrote: "Those holding gold or shares will feel some panic but IMHO the vast majority of gold watchers have been expecting a major price decline for several months now."

Speaking only for myself; if I had known the true course of the gold market over the past several months; rest assured that I would gone flat to cash. Anyone with the prescience to divine the future course of any market would be an abject fool to do less.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 21:18)
I'll take THAT bet.
Mike Sheller @ 19:44 - I agree with your scenario entirely but it contains a fatal flaw; the moon will be new! And you call yourself an astrologer.

Entertainment Tonight
(Fri Jun 27 1997 21:35)
"Heard on the Kitco Street" opened at 7:10 am to rave reviews.

Here are some of the things Kitcoites are saying about the new play...

"I laughed till I stopped" ( Tortfeasor )
"It stunk" ( Mooney )
" " ( Ted )
"I only caught a few minutes of it - I spent the rest of the time puking in the toilet" ( Deaner )
"Plays about the irrational exuberance of goldbugs often appear at the
end of a long-term bear market. 'Heard on the Kitco Street' could very
well herald the start of the long-term secular bull" ( George S Cole )
"I strongly deny these persistent rumours about any bearish tendencies on my part" ( Panda )
"Read a complete analysis of it at" ( Vronsky )
"I think the choice of Sharon Stone to play my part was a mistake. I have a much bigger chest than she does" ( Blonde )
"This play sucks. What's all the fuss about ? I made a great call on Monday. It was just a week or so out, is all.
So now they make a play about it ? I'm completely disgusted" ( Steve Puetz )
"When is it coming to Australia ?" ( Steve - Perth )
"Ah weesh that we had zee tee-atres for zee play-acting eere een zee Pyranees, by gar !" ( Bernatz de Ventadorm )
"The fact that the actors could only speak their lines at 40 minute intervals was due to technical problems
beyond our control" ( Bart Kitner )
"They totally cut my part from the script !" ( Strad Master )
"the sower of the wind shall reap the whirlwind. he who mocks the great spirit shall suffer the visitation of demons" ( cherokee )
"This play opens and the price of gold drops nearly four bucks. I can't wait for the sequel" ( WW )

George S. Cole
(Fri Jun 27 1997 21:41)
MOONEY: That was me at 17:17, but an earlier post announcing my capitulation was not mine. Just wanted to put the definition of a goldbug into historical perspective and illustrate how drastically sentiment has changed.

Eldorado: Agree with you on short-term outlook.

Flamboyant money manger James Cramer authors a weekly column on the markets in one of our local New York papers. His latest is entitled, "Take Your Gold Hashimoto, I'll Stick With The Dow". I'm sure this attitude is widespread among money managers and is very bullish in my judgement. Sentiment truly has reached or is very close to the point of maximum pessimism for gold and maximum optimism for stocks.

The bible teaches that excessive pride often leads to a big fall. Does this hold a lesson for today's super-arrogant stock market bulls and gold bears? I think so, but I doubt any will heed it.

George s. Cole
(Fri Jun 27 1997 21:44)
Steve Kaplan
Those inclined to throw in the towel should read Steve Kaplan's latest analysis.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 21:46)
Not this time.
Again, you call my bluff. I am but a bear for the passing moment. $300 is not out of the question this year, but I'll cover my shorts long before then. What's this about getting fleeced? Aren't you the one recommending options, when 98% + of all options expire worthless? The slots in Las Vegas have a better pay out than that. At least in Vegas, pretty waitresses bring you free drinks. My clients make more than they loose, thats why they are still my clients. I covered 2500 oz gold today at $334.50, kept another 2000 oz. Sold it all at $348. I'm worried that the Asians and Indians will buy it up Monday. If not, I'll hold the rest for $330, if it does rise, I'll sell it into the dirt anywhere above $340. I think the difference between me and many here is, I don't care where it goes. Up, down, makes no difference to me. I think many here a too emotional about gold, thus my sad attempt at a limerick this morn. I'm having a great time in this market. That "retail waiting to get fleeced" remark was unkind and based on information you don't have. Next time, try not to get so personal. I'll match my trading program against any in existence, and posit that I make more profits for my clients. I've found your other posts to be knowledgeable and informative, but the last to me was a bit insulting.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 21:48)
Below is from RJ to D.A,
My mistake

(Fri Jun 27 1997 21:50)
ET-- Tsk, tsk.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 21:54)
Thanks George. I just wanted to point out the fact ( which you have just helpfully confirmed ) that some asinine joker has been posting quite a bit today using other peoples' handles. If such nonsense is allowed to continue we will be spending half our time wondering or asking each other if that was really so and so who posted the last message. Everyone likes the odd laugh around here but posting using multiple ( or other people's ) handles should be verbotten. AAR as I promised earlier today I will shortly post the Ben Franklin/Louis 16th parable.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 21:54)
Thanks George. I just wanted to point out the fact ( which you have just helpfully confirmed ) that some asinine joker has been posting quite a bit today using other peoples' handles. If such nonsense is allowed to continue we will be spending half our time wondering or asking each other if that was really so and so who posted the last message. Everyone likes the odd laugh around here but posting using multiple ( or other people's ) handles should be verbotten. AAR as I promised earlier today I will shortly post the Ben Franklin/Louis 16th parable.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 21:59)
If you would stick to non-spiteful humour Cool Cat, there is hope for you yet. As you know, I've pointed this out in the past.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 21:59)
Deposit WHAT?
Simple Man @ 11:43 - Send me a cashiers check for $65,000 and Ill send you 100 oz gold, Ill even pay the shipping. I will include a written guarantee to buy any or all of it back at $50 above high spot for the year. Meanwhile, Ill use the 65K to buy platinum.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 22:05)
Swinging for the Fences
George S. Cole: I'm heeding it, I'm heeding it! Boy, am I ever heeding it. Put in a low-ball bid for a bunch of out of the money Dec calls today. The mkt closed within one tic of me. Will try again Monday. I've got my line in the water and plan to reel out another as soon as possible. Not too concerned if they expire worthless either, since I'm not betting so much that it'll change my life style if I lose. And I'm darn sure gonna stay in the gold game until the mkts and the world pull back from the precipice we're teetering on. The potential upside is just too enticing at the moment. Luv your commentary here, Mr. Cole ( I think you may be too distinguished for me to call you George ) . It's been tremendously helpful for us rookies. Thanks.

Entertainment Tonight
(Fri Jun 27 1997 22:07)
Mooney, George: I offer my immediate apologies to you and any others who may have been offended by my post at 21:35. It was intended merely as an amusing afterthought to my "Heard on the Street" post, which was reasonably well received, at least by some. I understand that someone else was "borrowing" handles today. I assure you that person was not me - I would have thought that my posts were self-evidently not written by the persons mentioned within them. If I have breached the rules of Netiquette, I am sorry - in comedy, some things must be tried to test their effect. I will post no more such messages.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 22:13)
Earl: I think there is a great difference between "prescience to divine the future" and "expecting". Trying to see the future via rational arguments re: national debts and deficits rules out the trends of the day. Dismissing all government figures and statements as efforts to confuse and cover up is confusing. Assuming that inflation must be going up because gasoline is going up betrays an ignorance ( inflation measures are an average after all ) . Continue to repeat a whole bundle of self serving conclusions; add some disparaging comments to those who disagree with the consensus; add a little home spun commentary and next thing you know you have most of a highly interested and opinionated website backing the wrong horse. I'm not responding to your posts which I have followed for some weeks. Just a couple of ideas that have sort of become conclusions about gold bugs in general. One day they/we will be right of course.

itsy bitsy trader@RAY
(Fri Jun 27 1997 22:14)
@water spout
RAY: I guess we'll find out soon on KRY. I with you. The best game in town. I also own BGO ( another stock with blue sky potential ) . Arizona Star seems like a good bet too ( don't own that one ) . The only gold stock besides KRY and BGO that I own is ALTA ( the is a more conservative long term play ) . Maybe in KRY and/or BGO take off in the next couple of months it will give the shorts something to think about. I wouldn't want to be short at these levels ( especially the KRYs and BGOs ) . The big boys need low cost properties. Best wishes.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 22:15)
OH- At last, finally, thank god!!! after all this time! - To be a bear is popular. HO HO HO - I'm using all those ill gotten gains of last year to BUY - BUY - and BUY some more. The drop may not be over yet - but surely the upside reward potential has finally gotten to my comfort level. A few more down days and even the biggest bulls will be crying UNCLE. I'm about 35% in now and will be putting the rest of it in during the summer. The establishment plans to keep the wraps on the metals and other commodities - but they will have many oter things to worry about - SOON. Isn't it sad that we have increased deficits and unbalanced budgets and no one notices - YET! Once the dust starts getting stired up next month it won't settle down for the rest of the year. Take you metals long - and your S & P short - for the rest of the year.

AIN'T LIFE GREAT!!!!! Experiences!! That's what brings the BLISS!!

Bill Buckler
(Fri Jun 27 1997 22:16)
Steve ( 27/6 15:20 ) Those "interesting" foreign currency Gold charts have just been updated at The Privateer:

Interesting that the rise in the $US negated the $US Gold fall in most other currencies. Also interesting - as Steve Kaplan points out - that open interest is rising as Commercials buy all the Gold they can get their hands on.

I personally am awaiting the FOMC meeting with great interest. Canada just raised rates 0.25% and Italy just lowered them 0.50%.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 22:25)
Hello this me is that you?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 22:25)
Although I had promised that I would hold off with this storey until I felt that Gold had absolutely bottomed out, I am rescinding that promise as I can't wait any longer, and besides I feel that the bottom is relatively close in time if not absolutely place in U.S. dollar terms. Perhaps the posting of the storey will give a few more dozen fence-sitters the urge and the teeter-totter will finally reverse direction.

Louis 16th meets Ben Franklin

Story has it that, ( whether the setting or participants is accurate or not is not important, only the message ) , Benjamin Franklin in a meeting at his temporary residence just outside Paris, France spoke with other American diplomats, John Adams, the brothers Lee, and Ralph Izard.
"Perhaps you will permit me, "Franklin said, "to relate a little story. A man was sitting on the Pont-Neuf a short time ago offering gold coins for sale, Louis d'Or both old and new, for which he asked two livres a piece, in other words a tenth of their value. Many of the passers-by stopped to listen, they examined the coins, which had the authentic ring, yet the man did not succeed in selling a solitary one of his Louis d'Or. Not a single purchaser could be found who was willing a risk a couple of livres in order to acquire a whole Louis."
"Well," asked Ralph Izard in a depreciating tone, "what about it?"
"The Louis d'Or were genuine," replied Franklin. "It was all part of a bet. The man won his wager, for he had asserted that people are so suspicious by nature that they will not even accept real gold if it is offered them cheaply."

(Fri Jun 27 1997 22:31)
This is my first posting today. Previous postings using the "Puetz" handle were someone other than me. No, I have not turned bearish gold. Gold is still a great buy at these levels.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 22:33)
@ Bill Buckler
Capt'n: Just read your most recent letter. It was an excellent piece of work!!!!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 22:34)
Mooney - he forgot M-I-C-K-E-Y M-O-U-S-E...Mickey Mouse, Mickey Mouse.
I must thank Steve of Perth for all the biblical references. After referencing them all I must confess I understand much less clearly.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 22:36)
@ attitudes
ALL: A tremendous flip-flop in sentiment between today ( very negative ) and Monday ( euphoric, after Hashimoto's comments ) . As far as I can tell, nothing has changed during this 4-day period except prices and attitudes. Anyone else notice?????

(Fri Jun 27 1997 22:41)
@ Stability
Eldorado and Panda: There are others, but in particular, I notice that short-term price swings don't seem to influence your thinking as much as it does others. That's commendable, because rational thinking can never be influenced by short-term price moves. Short-term moves only affect speculators -- those using leverage in their investments.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 22:42)
George Cole @17:14: "Changing definition of a goldbug:" ..... That was cruel. .... ( :- ) ) ... It would be funny if it weren't so true. ... BTW, I was looking at XAU vs GC today and your thoughts about the XAU leading the move. The XAU also tends to diverge at the end of a move as well. Jan/Feb 96 is an excellent case in point. Gold was moving down - XAU up - for two months before the XAU reacted. Badly.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 22:47)
@ Barron's
Barron's always has tremendous information each week. As always, I will scan Barron's for the latest info. I will update any new significant developments. Stay tuned to Kitco. See you tomorrow.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 22:54)
@ Deflation
Looking at the CRB Index, it's obvious that deflationary pressures grow stronger with each passing day. This deflation may be negative to gold and silver short-term. But, long-term, it's more bullish to the precious metals than any other development imaginable. That's because, in a defaltion, all types of credit-market instruments become suspect. Gold bulls, don't lose heart, you may have bought for the wrong reason -- expecting inflation. However, deflation will ultimately be the factor that proves you right!!!!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 23:00)

It is raining buckets in and around Charleston. Global WARMING in action.
No one heeds the warnings of nature.

Perhaps, it will be an environmental Titanic which challenges the warm
and fuzzy attitudes which envelope the never ending paper chase.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 23:06)
itsy bitsy trader: I couldn't help notice your comment on ALTA. I owned it in Jan 96 and it did well. The relative strength of ALTA in current conditions is worth paying attention to. My impression is that it has held up well recently and is apparently gathering some volume. The weekly OBV has also held up well in 97. It may be worth owning again.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 23:11)
Bill Buckler: Do you think a US rate rise is in the cards? It seems to me that it would be a direct slap in the face of the Japanese. The US is certainly capable of carrying the insult but I'm not sure they want, or are prepared, to deal with the potential consequences.

(Fri Jun 27 1997 23:15)
Mooney: Honestly now. If you were among the passersby; would you buy?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 23:15)
NotaGoldbug @ 20:24
You said in part...." Panda, Are you suggesting interest rates are looking to move higher?? If so, why would you think this good for gold?? With lease rates for gold subject to increase's to the same degree..."

Point one; Lease rates went higher for platinum and palladium. OK, there was a 'shortage', point is, the lease rates went higher. What did this indicate? Was anyone willing to lend the metal? How do the lenders of PA/PL feel today? Where is the lease rate?

Point two; "Are you suggesting interest rates are looking to move higher??"
I'm not suggesting anything that the Long Bond chart isn't suggesting. As for higher interest rates stopping a gold price rise, you have to ask the question, "Why are rates rising?" The general answers might be inflationary pressures or credit worthiness concerns. After all, who would ever question the credit worthiness of a T-Bond? Hashimoto didn't, right? After all, T-Bonds, Notes, Bills are all backed by the promise to tax, right?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 23:23)
I have to admit, my first impluse is to shift my gold funds
to the money market and wait for a 10% up turn. However,
I've done that in the past without making any bucks. So,geez
suppose the $200 forecast is right. Boy, this really
separates the wo/men from the boygirls.

Then there was the little boy answering the phone:
Is your mommy home? Ans. No ( in weak voice )
How about your daddy? not here either
Where are the police and firemen? Looking for me :- ) )

(Fri Jun 27 1997 23:28)
Yes Earl, I would, for two reasons, I'm confident that I can tell real Gold, and at one tenth the value it would be like risking only $33.50 tp buy $335.00. But of course we are distracting from the important message of the storey with this aside. The main point of the storey from over two hundred years ago seems to be in effect RIGHT NOW! That point being, ( I repeat for those who are here and getting sleepy because its past their bedtime, Mickey's fans included ) ,
"...people are so
suspicious by nature that they will not even accept real gold if it is offered them cheaply."

(Fri Jun 27 1997 23:30)
@barbadoe ranch
Mr. NotaGoldbug: Please do not assign capital assets to speculations you may be unable to sustain. Convincing most here ( KITCO ) of your convictions will be fruitless or near-sighted at best. If the purchase of say.... 100 ozs. of bullion coin represents more than 2-5% of the funds you consider "mad money", avoiding coin even @$300/oz. would be in your best interest. While I expect bullion coin purchases will be affirmed as a heads-up investment before the yk2 financial onslaught, it won't matter to me if this puppy goes to zero.

Best wishes to all!

(Fri Jun 27 1997 23:31)
NotaGoldbug @ 20:24 -- Do I think a general stock market correction will cause people to jump on the gold bandwagon? Absolutely NOT. I would want to know the cause of the market correction first. What do I think will cause gold to rise? Turmoil in the ForEx markets. This will also take out the stock and bond markets.

As for getting real, Do you think this bull market in equities will go on forever? What are your thoughts on a correction in the equities market? Do you have any hedges planned for this eventuality? Do you plan on 'riding it out'? Do you think we will experience inflation rising in the next year or two? How would stocks react to this? It's clear to me that stocks are pretty much ignoring interest rates for now and have priced in nirvana. Cash flows in to mutual funds, year over year, have slowed considerably. I have my opinions, what are yours?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 23:48)
NotaGoldbug @ 20:24 -- What would cause interest rates to go lower? Why would this be good for stocks? What if interest rates stayed flat? What happens then?

If interest rates fell, would Puetz be right? A deflation? How would stocks fare then? What happens to the supply of credit?

If interest rates stayed flat, does the economy continue to 'grow' at the 5.9% rate that we are told it is growing at? It doesn't slow down or get overheated?

What about the Fed continuing to monetize the debt through incessant coupon passes several times a week?

I could go on, but I'm sure that I'm boring everyone by now. So, let's hear your side. Tell me how low you think gold will go. At what point do you think anyone will be interested in it? What do you think will cause it's price to rise? What scenarios do you envision for the stock and metals markets this year? Do you think we will see Dow 10,000 this year? Next year? Where do you think the Long Bond will be in three or four months, and how do you arrive at your conclusion?

(Fri Jun 27 1997 23:50)
Well, I see that I've put everyone to sleep. Good night all.