Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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Gime a break
(Tue Jul 01 1997 00:13)
Objective Observer - Don't get near anything sharp. You're ego is stuck way out there tonight and you are in danger of exploding if hit with a tack. Stop brown nosing those that you view as teachers. You sound more like a moron. Objective my rear end. Take another downer and go to bed!!

Global Minerals &Technologies
(Tue Jul 01 1997 00:15)
Due to the overwhelming response to our posting earlier concerning our free email Newsletter on Resource Srocks,for those still interested in receiving our recommendation this week.Please email us at
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(Tue Jul 01 1997 00:15)
beat me, whip me, make me buy more south african gold stocks
For John Disney: I seldom post here but always read. I have missed your posts on the South African stocks. Do you have any knowledge of the "linked units" issued at the end of 1995 which consisted of one prefered ordinary share of Durban Deep with a "guaranteed" yield of 8% and a 4 year option for one ordinary share at $8.20 ? Do you know if the options have been stripped from these units? If so is there an active market in these?
I guess the bottom line is I feel like the way to play this now is to load up on these old options with a strike price of $8.20 and 2 and 1/2 years time left or try to load up on the new warrants with a strike price of $14.00 and 5 years time.
Any thoughts on the possibility of the new consolidated Durban Deep shutting down if the price of gold stays below $335.00 for an extended period of time?
Anyway, I enjoy your posts and thank you in advance for any help or info you can share.
Gracias, ARS

(Tue Jul 01 1997 00:19)
Let us close this down day with a quote from: Ecclesiates 3:1
To everything there is a season and a time to every
purpose under the heaven.

We prayerfully wait. Our good time will come. Truth will
prevail. :- )

(Tue Jul 01 1997 00:21)
Telecaster: Thanks for the memory refresh on Japan's true position vis a vis the US. The intangibles they receive are many and often overlooked.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 00:28)
Confucius say, he who owe a little must pay the boss,
but he who owe a lot is the boss. Also, confucius say,
why work for something that you can borrow.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 00:32)
@and further
This John Hepcat dude {the bile attacker} lives by the maxim "Your cock-
up, my arse. I tell you what, my broker would run a mile if I started
blaming him for every mess up I make. And further, consider those out
there infected with HepC, does he have a cure for this timebomb?

Crystal Ball
(Tue Jul 01 1997 00:50)
My contribution for today--------A farmer and his wife went to a fair. The farmer was fascinated by the airplanes and asked a pilot how much a ride would cost. "$10 for 3 minutes," replied the pilot. "That's too much," said the farmer. The pilot thought for a second and then said, "I'll make you a deal. If you and your wife ride for 3 minutes without uttering a sound, the ride will be free. But if you make a sound, you'll have to pay $10."
The farmer and his wife agreed and went for a wild ride. After they landed, the pilot said to the farmer, "I want to congratulate you for not making a sound. You are a brave man."
"Maybe so," said the farmer, "But I gotta tell ya, I almost screamed
when my wife fell out."

(Tue Jul 01 1997 00:51)

Telecaster: Agree with your ( 21:59 ) , that Japan would be in deep dung with the purveyors of bulls**t, if they sold their US Treasuries and T-Bills.
When one considers the huge holdings that they have accumulated, why can't they sell some of them? It is their money.
Japan also has huge dollar holdings not now in US Governments, so why shouldn't they buy gold with those funds to diversify their foreign exchange or safe harbor holdings?
Gold is relatively cheap wouldn't you say?
Then there is a ( supposedly ) huge Asian economy ( that sounds something like the DOW hype ) that they can enter.
Old wounds do heal as we all know.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 00:55)
I have never seen so many bearish comments on the Kitco group. A contrarian would be taking out a second mortgage, selling the kids, and buying as much gold as he could. I must admit, I was a bit surprised that the price wasnt bid up a bit in Asia. With Hong Kong out for three days, and the US out for two, I seriously doubt any new longs will be placed before next week. This could free the bears to run it down to 330 maybe 329. I would be very surprised to see it much lower this time around. I read a report earlier about Hong Kong traders expected bigger demand for gold before the changeover - IMHO - IM Holding too much, Overbought. If gold doesnt rally from these levels by mid week next, 300 is a real possibility. Im content to hold my shorts for 330, but I will place no more new below 340.

I dont share the view of most here that the stock market will crash. The funds are so fat with cash, with more pouring in every day, they have nowhere else to put it. A thousand point drop would just inspire a new round of exuberance to buy it back up faster than it dropped. This is a new era in the equities and the old rules dont apply. Boomers are reaching the most prosperous point in their lives and this much disposable cash will supply enough fuel to see 10K on the Dow. Not all at once, but by 1998 end, 10,000 +.

I have also read quite a few words here about bankruptcies and the "credit bubble". What I have not seen mentioned here is that the vast majority of BKs will never BK again. Banks and lenders know this and routinely deluge the bankruptee with offers of new credit. The sum total of all BKs cause the big banks nary a worry, just the cost of doing business. Like drug smugglers who know a percentage of shipments will not get through, the banks have factored in the cost of these charge offs and are whistling all the way to the bank, well, to their desks then.

Silver is very tough to call now. Im tempted to buy it here, but as soon as I do, it will drop to 4.40. I would rather miss a move higher than to risk 4.40 or lower. I would look to buy the breakout and let it do what it will here without me.

PGMs, to the moon. 500 ++ platinum this year. I have said it before, palladium prices could top gold this year, that will be a story to tell the grand kids. The manipulation is not over and a Tiger is still lurking in the bush, patient to wait until its prey has relaxed before a pounce and vicious bite to the neck.

Speaking of bites - this is really starting to become an ugly habit - a new limerick:

There once was a boxer who knew
The way to win was to give a good chew
Now, stripped of all Might
Today polite and contrite
The Iron in Mike is forever subdued.


Holly an Mike sure had some fun
In their bout to decide number one
Holly hit
And Mikey bit
His career now over and done.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 01:01)
Give pause to your worship
Objective Observer @ 23:12:

Perhaps "Subjective Observer" would be more appropriate.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 01:11)
As many of you know, the Thailand stock market has lost nearly 75% of its value in the last three years and recently broke below its eight-year lows. This has been a classic market crash. Accordingly, I have been trying, unsuccessfully, to locate data on gold purchases in Thailand in this environment. Does anyone have any suggestions as to where I might look for such data?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 01:30)
I couldn't resist
Subjective Observer @ 23:12

You owe Mr. Webster a public apology.

delineate ( d-ln-t ) verb, transitive
1. To draw or trace the outline of; sketch out.
2. To represent pictorially; depict.

paucity ( ps-t ) noun
1. Smallness of number; fewness.
2. Scarcity; dearth.

acute ( e-kyt ) adjective
1. Having a sharp point or tip.
2. Keenly perceptive or discerning; penetrating
3. Reacting readily to impressions; sensitive
4. Of great importance or consequence; crucial.
5. Extremely sharp or severe; intense: acute pain; acute relief.
6. Medicine. a. Having a rapid onset and following a short but severe course
7. Music. High in pitch; shrill.
8. Geometry. Designating angles less than 90.

One cannot say that your use of these words was entirely incorrect, but in context, they delineate an acute paucity of grammar.

grammar ( grmer ) noun
Abbr. gram.
1. a. The study of how words and their component parts combine to form sentences. b. The study of structural relationships in language or in a language, sometimes including pronunciation, meaning, and linguistic history.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 01:42)
Friendly chiding
Subjective Observer - I'm just having a bit of mean-spirited fun, been surly all day. I do agree with your choice of targets, though.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 01:54)
What is a
Been thinking about getting a cat, but I think I will pass on a "hepcat", they apparently cough up too many hairballs.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 01:58)
My 2 cents. Gillette at PE 53, Coca-Cola at P/E of 46 ..., amazing, scary, fund managers being paid big salaries to make choices like this. US interest rates possibly going up a little as early as this week??, Interest in US tbills drying up.

Obviously the bull market is running out of steam, but I would have never thought that it would be so easy to see the end coming ( well I think so anyway ) . Negative news starting to appear and yet one still has time to sell equities and change into gold, gold stocks, cash, etc.

Like in the recent book by Sarlos, the end of this bull market, will not occur as a correction but as a tidal wave that will wash many people away. Hopefully it won't be that bad but one best be ready.


John Disney
(Tue Jul 01 1997 02:08)
To trader ed
Nothing in news here. Union Negotiations in progress.
Seem uneventful. Management trying obtain 3 year deal
in general.
Gold mining sector came off here by 3.1% on Monday, so
the fall in the gold fund is not that out of line.
Index here free falling.
To ARS in Mex- Im losing my grip on the DD deal.
I THINK that all prior options will be rolled over into
a new option with a little higher strike and a longer
expiry ( like mid 2002 ) . I assume the preferred stock
stays like it is. If these were ADR related deals, you
should talk to your broker and make sure any options
you have wont be "auctioned" as you will probably be
screwed if they are.
DD was making a little before capex at a gold
price of $350, so I think they will be about square
at the present level. Same goes for Blyvvor. Buffels
is good to about $285. Believe many "experts" will be
surprised at RSA profitablty versus Autralian and
North American profitablity over the few months.

John Disney
(Tue Jul 01 1997 02:10)
to all sportsfans

Iron Mike Tyson is to Boxing as Bre-X is to Gold Mining.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 02:21)

Predictions: Next Tyson fight will be on pay per chew TV. New name-Evander "The Real Meal" Holyfield.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 02:41)
Jumpin' on the bandwagon
Iron Mike was the coolest Hepcat in sight
and when he was called on to fight
He had so much to fear
that he bit the first ear
And then a second to call it a night.



(Tue Jul 01 1997 03:13)
Hi all--Just an update on the custom indicator I develped. I posted three weeks ago that it has moved into the buy zone for the first time since dec. 1995 ( weekly chart ) Despite lower prices the last two weeks, it is moving higher still in the buy zone. I'm looking for the change in the daily charts but still a sell. I will post the first sign of a divergence on the daily.

As another example of how well it works ( I posted several, 3 weeks ago ) ,
it gave me a seel signal in copper on wed. june 18. Normaly i would not trade against the trend as was the case in copper, but the signal was too convincing.

I've spent close to 1200 hours working on the indicator and when i saw the final product , my bladder nearly let go.

I'm still testing it and thinking about packaging the final product for sale.
Any suggestions would be appreciated.

P.S. Of course, it would be gratis to all on Kitco. The wealth of knowledge served up here on a daily basis at no cost requires a thank-you.


(Tue Jul 01 1997 03:15)
@quit while you're ahead?
Mike Tyson was prepared for the show
he seemed fit and ready to blow
In comes a man called "The Real Deal"
who has proven that he has the feel
and gets treated as though he is Van Gogh.



(Tue Jul 01 1997 03:18)
EB: U B on a roll!

(Tue Jul 01 1997 03:18)
EB: You B on a roll!

(Tue Jul 01 1997 03:42)

Tokyo down 429, or 2.1%.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 04:09)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

FSAGX & FDPMX are BOTH going UP! Fourth Of July Rally?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 04:10)
TELECASTER & SCOTTY: I agree with your positions about Japan and the bonds and said so in these spaces last week. However, you should read Japan Between a Rock and a Hard Spot, Part II ( Oracle ) . The important point in that article is that while the BOJ holds 200B of bonds the Japanese public holds another 800B. Markets decide the outcome of these things, not governments. Although not mentioned by Oracle there is always the possibility of a Tokyo earthquake, or a bank or insurance company failure, or some calamity that makes the decisions for us.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 04:15)
MADDOG.... If I can help evaluate your model,
Email me a functional description.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 04:17)
MADDOG: I don't know how your indicator is constructed but I agree with you about the direction. If you short the Dow or the S&P at this point, go long an equal dollar amount of precious metal, you can do the Rip Van Winkle thing and make money.

George S. Cole
(Tue Jul 01 1997 04:33)
Hong Kong
Does anyone here think the Chinese might back the Hong Kong dollar with gold? Until now the HK dollar has been directly tied to the U.S. greenback and Alan Greenspan's monetary policy. A possible run on the currency could force drastic policy changes.

Too, may here assuming Japan is so dependent on U.S., they will never buy any gold. I disagree. Japan much less dependent on trade with U.S. than a decade ago. Much more heavily into Asian trade. Nobody is threatening their oil supplies. They have almost no gold; other G-7 nations own a lot. They have taken a huge beating on their U.S. investments and must be getting sick of supporting the U.S. bubble while their own markets languish.

George s. Cole
(Tue Jul 01 1997 04:39)
new era?
RJ: Let's here more of this new era stuff. Lot's of people talking that way today. Just like 1929. Very bearish from a contrarian perspective.

John Disney
(Tue Jul 01 1997 05:21)
For Maddog - Please put me on the list for your magical indicator.
I really need something that works for a change.

John Disney
(Tue Jul 01 1997 05:36)
To all those involved in DD dealings.

Rumours persist that terms of takeover of Buffels
and Blydy by DD must either be improved or deal may
collapse. At current gold price, Buffels and Blydy
are lower cost than DD and are worth more in minds and
pockets of their shareholders. Silence has settled
over the negotiations. Id rather not be holding DDeep
should things go bad. Prefer buffels then blydy in that
order. If gold keeps going down, even prefer phoney
money US bonds or rusty used cars as last resort.

To those who read Mr Coles comments to effect that
Japan does not need the US as much as some Kitcoites
think it does. I think Mr Cole is 100% RIGHT.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 06:01)
GEORGE S. COLE: Do they have enough gold to back the Hong Kong Dollar with gold? I had assumed that they would just withdraw it from circulation. Never thought much about it because I don't own any. Wouldn't that compete with their own currency on the mainland and cause problems internally?

George S. Cole
(Tue Jul 01 1997 06:27)
August gold down another 70 cents this morning. The bleeding continues.

Obviously we are now in the final capitulation phase of the gold bear. With all due respect to GLENN a bottom probably is close at hand in terns of time. But in terms of price --who knows? Secular bear markets can go lower than almost anybody believes possible. Especially when powerful forces with enormous resources are deployed on the short side. Still do not think gold prices will STAY depressed for long once the bottom is in.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 06:39)

Cherokee: What have you been up to? Mt. Popocatepetl had its biggest eruption over Mexico City in over 70 years. You wouldn't happen to know anything about that, would ya?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 06:53)
Enough of the Gloom & Doom of gold! Here is my "Rip Van Winkle" straddle. I say you can absolutely make money long gold in this market. Today July 1st is a good day to set it up hypothetically at least.
We are spending $100,000 to buy 16584 shares of Rydex Ursa at $6.03 each.
We are spending $100,000 to buy 23530 shares of Central Fund of Canada, CEF on the Amex at $4.25 each. Total investment $200,000. At least once a week I will post the result of the "Rip Van Winkle Fund"

(Tue Jul 01 1997 06:59)
@fiscally fit?

A nice summary of the US fiscal situation:

(Tue Jul 01 1997 07:22)
Madog: My indicators give me the same impression that yours seems to do. There a clear positive divergences between the technical indicators and the spotprice - in the long run a 100% sure sign for a turnaround. The problems with divergence-trading is the timing. Some divergences turn out to be buysignals after two weeks others continue for months. At the moment I expect the goldprice to stop falling at the 1993er support at 325 USD - If it goes under that line, the divergences could be turn out to be false signals - in that case they indicators would start to confirm the bearmarket.
regards from vienna

Bob A
(Tue Jul 01 1997 07:25)
SWC up $1 yesterday, the start of something great.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 07:44)
What's up in SA
The South African Gold Stocks continue to tank. Any one know
of any new political problems? Thanks.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jul 01 1997 07:58)
@old error
RJ - Ordinarily clear headed , analytically rigorous & wise, and joyfully elegant with your prose - just watch that "new era" talk. It's sunk many a fine young ship captain on resolute reefs 'afore! I need one more otherwise intelligent, sage commentator ( such as yourself ) to utter this phrase. Then, combined with Christy Whitman's first stock purchase, I will have the incantation of a Bull Market top in place. Will incant only at the New Moon, I promise you. I did imagine Mike Tyson as Marc Antony - and all the gathered Romans hurriedly scattering to the exits as he asked for "their ear."

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jul 01 1997 08:07)
Chao Ong Hong Kong
G.S. COLE: I believe Hong Kong has enuf foreign currency reserves backing its currency. Perhaps the question is will the HK dollar become the PRC's Yuan ( he said with a yawn ) ? I suppose its academic. Over time that is what unification is all about. I am one who believes that China will wisely incorporate gold holdings as a currency backing, explicitly or implicitly, along with whatever selected currencies earned or inherited. The day must come when the Yuan is a major, vital, world-traded currency. If Mexico has one, then China is long overdue.

John (righty) Disney
(Tue Jul 01 1997 08:09)
You guys keep asking the same question.What kind of political
problem do you have in mind ?? My gardener was 10 minutes late this
morning because his bike had a flat tire. I burned the toast a little.
Other than that pretty quiet around here. Sorry to disappoint
The Industrial sector was up and has been going up steadily. Before you
assume the market here is "TANKING" ( and similar tough talk ) because
somebody was asassinated or such like, try checking the other jse indexes.
The gold index is down because GOLD is down as locals sell and put
their dough into industrials. The main problem in the Cape is staying
awake because its so peacefull here. I could use a little action - PIL-GRIM.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jul 01 1997 08:11)
...and furthermore
WW: Your invite to Chinese Embassy in DC would indeed mean a lot to gold, and us, if you might kindly take a few officials hostage during your visit, and perhaps threaten to discharge a nuclear device in your briefcase if all the gold bullion in China is not placed immediately in a secret account for you in Madagascar. Maybe you would also put in a good word for silver too?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 08:29)
FWIW,the NYSE market is setting itself up for a/or final blowoff for
this year with a final capitulation of gold ( 275 to 300 range? ) towards
the third week of July.It could take a massive shortcovering of gold to
alleviate liquidity problems when the stockmarket is taking a major dive at the end of the month.Platinum should be really interesting ,still
expecting 560 at the end of the month.It could be very chaotic.

Bob A
(Tue Jul 01 1997 08:47)
to cylist
Why do you expect such a good move in plat?

Bob A
(Tue Jul 01 1997 08:47)
to cylist
Why do you expect such a good move in plat?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 09:00)
Objective Observer - A lot of time and brillliant minds were spent on expounding the virtues of Marxist-Leninist philosophy. While I admire the tremendous
efforts and purposefulness of the writers, I have to shake my head at all the
wasted effort. For it is not merely enough that one writes or thinks brilliantly.
One also has to make sure what one is writing and researching dovetails
with reality. I have no trouble complimenting Earl and GSC and Aurophile
on their writing or thinking skills. I just want to point out once again that
in the current market, all of their effort is for naught, and is actually hurting
people. Maybe you have to be younger to see this. Maybe you actually
have to be investing money to see this. I don't know. All I know is, their
advice is not correct, and it is not useful. Until they say it is not a good idea
to buy or hold gold right now, then they might as well be writing sonnets.
My message is simple, and so far, it is correct. End of story.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 09:09)

China and Japan are already in a cooperative agreement. They have been working together for the last couple of years ( out of public eyes & ears ) . Thailand did not agree to cooperate with their plan ( because of thier dedication to and close ties with the U.S. ) and look what happened to that little country. The U.S. has done nothing to help their situation. ( BTW, Taiwan also has not cooperated with China. )

Why would Japan cooperate with their longtime "enemy" China? They know that the U.S. could not stop the Chinese army from quickly overrunning their little island. The U.S. military in Japan has been plucked down to so little that there is merely a token presence there. Should a Chinese invasion scenario erupt, U.S. air power would control the skies for a few days, and possibly weeks, but it couldn't stop the eventual onslaught of several million soldiers. The Japanese know this and are playing their cards in such a way as to keep both super powers as allies - for the time being. Eventually ( very long term ) they will have to choose who they want to really be allied with.

The trap the Japanese are falling into is one in which they think the Chinese would be better economic partners than the U.S. If the Chinese keep their promises to keep their military on the mainland, both countries will flourish in a hugely profitable partnership. Japan's high technological manufacturing methods exported to a workforce of 1.2 billion reasonably educated "wage-controlled" workers ( who have been allowed to accumulate wealth ) is a recipe for an economic powerhouse. The Japanese are banking on the ( improbable chance ) that moderates ( and full Democracy ) will eventually come to power in China.

The point to all this is that the Sino-Japanese alliance does not need the U.S. in their long term Asian equation. No one is sure about the Vice-Versa to this scenario.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 09:14)
JOHN DISNEY: Ask your gardner to recommend something to spray on Goldbugs to keep them under control.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 09:24)
Telecaster......ooooops! I loved your commentary about Japan rising rates. I accidently typed Tortfeasor.....sorry!

Cherokee.....I'm with you on $300 gold! I'll even hire myself out to fix lawn sprinkler systems to buy an eagle or two a week at those levels! ( I HATE fixing sprinklers.......!! ) The only way to catch the true bottom is to keep buying at these low levels.

George s. Cole
(Tue Jul 01 1997 09:30)
open interest
August gold now up a dime. Will wonders never cease!

Huge jump in open interest over the last week. If bullion doesn't break sharply pretty soon, a strong rally is in the cards.

George s. Cole
(Tue Jul 01 1997 09:30)
open interest
August gold now up a dime. Will wonders never cease!

Huge jump in open interest over the last week. If bullion doesn't break sharply pretty soon, a strong rally is in the cards.

A real "gunrunner"
(Tue Jul 01 1997 09:33)
Gunrunner: You have it completely wrong about the US not being able to stop the Chinese Army overrunning Japan. The Chinese have no capability to project significant force outside of China. Do you think the Chinese soldiers are going to swim over to Japan? They could come a few thousand at a time - look at the aging ships and the size of their Navy in a military almanac. The Chinese do not have a highly developed logistic support system, or troop transport capability. They have a rudimentary tactical air force. Not to mention the fact that it would take significant amount of time to even prepare for such an invasion ( giving the US/Japan ample time to put counterforces in to place. These arguments are all easily verified at your local library. It will be at least two decades before China could develop force projection capability, and by then the US/Japan will still be way ahead.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 09:35)
Auric: your Jul 01 1997 06:59 post gives a link:
that the addressee says does not exist. Please check spelling?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 09:41)
"The Aquarian Imperative"
Astrological Investor by Mike Sheller sees coming financial catastrophe leading to a divided society and Gold Standard's return. Philosophical stormclouds gathering. See Astrological Investor:

(Tue Jul 01 1997 09:49)

Mr. Vronsky: ( :- )

I noted in your post of Jun 30, 20:07 that you referred to George S. Cole as "redoubtable market sear". I'm sure you didn't mean the way it was put. Let me explain ( :- ) NOW EVERYONE TAKE A PILL FOR A SECOND AND RELAX, I'M NOT ATTACHING POOR OLD GEORGE!

"redoubtable" is an adjective. It could be read as modifying the noun market, not seer. The definition of redoubtable is "1.Inspiring fear" etc. Now from this humble abode, either the market is redoubtable or in normal english "to be feared"; or dear old gentle George is to be feared OR, turned around, we should be afraid of dear old George ( :- ) . I know that dear old Hepcat has been trying to say that in a rough way but I never thought I'd see that from you! ( :- ) .

Of course, Hepcat would say that the redoubtable is just like redo as in "do again". In effect, George is to be re-doubted. He's "doubtable" not just once but must be doubtable again for the "re" to take affect! ( :- ) NOW I'm SURE you didn't mean it that way either. Perhaps we could refer to him as "Old George". We'd all certainly know of whom you spoke and some may even find him "redoubtable" ( to be deserving respect ( feared ) rather than re-doubted! ( :- ) ) ) .

TTFN and have a great Canada day
ps I remember "Dominion day" also but of course after yesterday the "Dominion" is getting a lot smaller isn't it!

(Tue Jul 01 1997 10:01)
MADOG......You might want to have some of us here to help you check out the method you are testing.....

ted butler
(Tue Jul 01 1997 10:04)
another sign?
Add rising lease rates for gold to the bullish precious metals mix. Wonder if the CBs are having second thoughts?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 10:11)

(Tue Jul 01 1997 10:30)
RJ...Where do you get your Platinum spot quotes??

John Disney
(Tue Jul 01 1997 10:30)
For Donald

Even my gardener knows that NOTHING can keep goldbugs under control.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 10:33)

To: real gunrunner ( * )

My intel is not the library...

Agree that the scenario is unlikely. But....

China has allies and assets not counted in Jane's rag sheet. They've also been perfecting their missile technologies. And exporting them. Japan knows this. If air superiority/supremecy is taken out, Japan has no Army. A Desert Shield/Storm buildup scenario ( of several months ) will be impossible. The visible threat a couple of years ago by China's ( impotent ) fleet in waters around Taiwan got Japan's attention.

Tactics involving multi-front diversions of U.S. Military/Naval fleets would slow down U.S.'s response enough to accomplish a lot of objectives.

Let's not talk military scenarios on this forum. My point was that Japan REALL DOESN'T NEED the U.S. as an economic partner IN THE LONG TERM.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 10:33)
Looks like gold backing down a little more......GCQ7@$334.70

(Tue Jul 01 1997 10:49)
Gunrunner ( s ) : Thanks mightily for your comments on Japan/China. I think this subject is extremely important to gold ( and other forms of investment. ) Also, IMO military matters are VERY pertinent to a gold discussion.

I have wondered myself if a China/Japan relationship might unfold. Somewhow I see a more common interest than with cowboy boot Bill. The scenario of Japan dumping T-bills ( or not repurchasing at maturity which would be enough ) may not require a Chinese capability to move troops to the Japanese islands. Japan needs a market for their factories and a place to invest capital, and the Chinese it would seem
can serve them in these ways quite nicely. So in this scenario Japan can forget about the USA and supporting the US stock/bond markets and standard of living.

The fed decision this week and repercussions will be very interesting.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 10:50)
FRONT: As you well know most words may have several meanings and interpretations. For example, the word "redoubtable" means: formidable; worthy of respect; arousing awe or fear. Perhaps, it is very revealing that you choose to select the only possible negatively tainted meaing to give to my introduction to George S. Cole's formidable, worthy of respect and arousing awe work that he generously shares with us each day. Among the many hard lessons I have learned in my life, there is one which never ceases to amaze me. Regardless how one expresses an idea, certain listeners will inevitabley interpret - or distort - the intended meaning to fit his/her bias, convenience or prejudice.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 10:55)

"If bullion doesn't break sharply pretty soon, a strong rally is in the cards"

GSC - please define "sharply" and "soon". Otherwise your statement
is meaningless.

Again, I would like to point out that, regardless of what GSC says,
the message shimmering off his repeated posts is that a turnaround is
imminent. This is not correct information, and I am going to continue
harping on it.

George s. Cole
(Tue Jul 01 1997 10:59)
lies and distortions
John : You lie and distort. I am saying that a decent rally MAY be imminent. Unlike you, I do not have a crystal ball.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 11:02)

Vronsky - Then let me be perfectly clear.
Your continuous promotion of you site can be taken on two levels.
One, you are quite proud of it, and are out "hitting the pavement" to
let other people know about its existance.
Two, the more hits you have, the more hits you can tell potential
advertisers you have. I don't trust artificially inflated numbers,
and while I can laugh at P.T. Barnum's "This way to the egress"
ploy, that doesn't necessarily mean I approve of it.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 11:09)
Could the rampant personal atacks now appearing on this forum be another signal of an impending gold rally? Looks like some people have lost a few shekels in the precious metals.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 11:09)

George - I am saying one thing.
Three two five.
Everything else is frivolous.
Aurophile a few months ago was saying that gold had "a strong possibility"
to go to $365, or some number around that, in effect giving him wiggle room
in case the target wasn't reached. ( It wasn't. ) This information was useless,
and his reputation was never questioned because of the qualifier.
When I call my broker, I can't tell him, "There is a strong possibility I
will be putting $10,000 into IBM." I have to be a little more definitive.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 11:13)

Observer - No.
GSC - To preempt your rebuttal: Then if you don't know, either - 1. Shut up.
2. Be prepared to suffer the consequences if you are wrong.
3. Get out of the way.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 11:22)
John the Hepcat
John...Your constant "harping" is getting tiring, boring and silly. We lurkers appreciate the comments of GSC, etc...and I for one wish you would find another forum for your unhelpful critic attitude. 'nuf said"

Paul Smith
(Tue Jul 01 1997 11:31)
cyclist ( final@blowoff ) :

You mentioned that " the NYSE market is setting itself up for a/or final blowoff for this year with a final capitulation of gold ( 275 to 300 range? ) towards the third week of July." Please tell me, what reasons do you have for picking the 3rd week of July ? Why not the 3rd week of August or October ?


Impartial Observer
(Tue Jul 01 1997 11:35)
not so-called "Objective Observer"
John Hepcat: Hello again ! Vronsky ( at 10:50 ) is absolutely correct when he says that a written message is inevitably interpreted according to the opinions, prejudices, etc. of its recipient. Accordingly, let me say first that I am in wholehearted agreement with much of what you say. Your prediction of $325 looks like being fulfilled, if not passed on the way down. I know that you have suffered quite a bit of vitriol yourself, a fact overlooked by many of the goldbugs, who are quick to dish it out, but complain vociferously when it is returned.
However, your prediction, like George's and everybody else's, is just that. George and all the others have every right to put forward their views, just as you do. They can put them as forcefully and as often as they want to. If novice investors are harmed by the opinion that is proffered on this forum, the rules of free speech and caveat emptor apply - after all, no-one is charging for this opinion, and investors, novice or otherwise, come to this site of their own free will.
John, de-stress, man - revel in the fact that you were proved correct. Short gold some more - it will probably fall further. You can be even more correct then. But let the goldbugs cling to their dream.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 11:39)
an historical perspective w/ specifics
Buy AUG. Gold 7/3. Hold it till 7/8. your trade will be succesful 71.43% with a profit objective of $4.07. This is from a 21 year sampling. And they are not my #'s. This is just so everyone won't get too EXCITED if there is a small rally Thursday before the weekend.

This is not a recommendation. It was an example used to give specific dates for those so inclined to need them. I happen to agree with the HEPCAT ( ONLY regarding the direction of Gold-and only for the present ) .
Gold has probably not hit the bottom yet or will languish more at this possible bottom, or will... aaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh! FAGITABOUTIT!

I WILL be in on the DEC. options after AUG. expiry. This is just too EXCITING to NOT be a part of. And I will sleep soundly esta noche. the MOON!



(Tue Jul 01 1997 11:39)
@ Valley
John : If you don't like what you read then don't visit the site. Personal attacks don't prove anything. I hear your mother calling, I think she wants to give you your soother back!!!

(Tue Jul 01 1997 11:40)
Billd, Impartial Observer - Messages received. Thanks for your input.
Well said, both of you. Will check in throughout the day but done posting for now.

Rodney King
(Tue Jul 01 1997 11:42)

Why can't we all .... just get along?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 11:45)
Stop the Bickering
Hey Folks,
Let's try to keep the discussion about ideas, and leave the personalities out of it. There is nothing to be gained by fighting. I believe that everyone on this forum has something to offer. Whether their ideas are right or wrong is not the issue. The important thing is to be able to give and take. I, for one, would hate to see ANYONE leave the forum out of resentment. Let's keep it professional.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 11:50)

DocDuke: That story was moved off screen. I guess Nando doesn't archive their articles. Nothing earthshaking, just a summary of bond, dollar and real estate holdings by other countries. It gave the changes since '86 when the US went from net creditor to debtor status.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 11:58)
The XAU sure is impressive given that gold is such a lame duck.

I keep waiting for a day of up $10 or $20 for gold, given the outstanding short interest and bearish consensus outside this forum. ( No prediction offered or intended. )

(Tue Jul 01 1997 11:59)
FCOJ - It will be Golden.
More history and then I will shut-up. And sorry for talking about Oranges when the talk is on PGM's and personal attacks.

Has anyone overlayed JON7 with GCQ7? Isn't it weird? I have a new theory... that can rival the YEN/PLAT model. It's the EB's OJ/GOLD. I have been W/W ( watching and waiting ) for OJ to bottom and it finally seems to be there. It has been the LARGEST orange crop in history. FINALLY we may be able to see a turnaround. History says ( for everyone who has not moved to the next post ) this: BUY JOX7 on 7/3 exit 7/19 probabilities of success are 77.8%. This is looking like the TASTY trade I have been patiently waiting for with OJ...this is NOT a recommendation but more ponderance for my FUTURES friends.

AWAY...I promise.


i may hold this trade much longer than two weeks...more ponderance.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 12:12)

EB: Is that a short squeeze on OJ? ( sorry )

(Tue Jul 01 1997 12:12)
Closed Minds !
Mr. Vronsky:

You sir are correct.

I could have placed as many ( :- ) ) ( That's a smile BTW ) all over the place. I thought I had. I could have placed the "NOT ATTACKING GEORGE" in bigger capital letters. I could have done a lot of other things unfortunately, I thought that with all the smiles and capitals everyone might have seen it as jockular. Unfortunately, you chose to attack my choice of words.


Have you're opinion. You're right, I'm wrong. You and George and Mike are all perfect and wise and know everything about life happiness and whatever else your ego allows you to think. I ( along with others ) cannot post on the site amd mention the name George even in jest without the world coming apart. If this small Gold corner cannot handle someone mentioning the word GEORGE without having an attack then you're too small of mind and attitutde to deal with.

Now I know why OLDMAN; AUROPHILE, and many others who we've chatted with no longer come here. You're minds are closed to anything that you don't agree with gentlemen. Goodbye.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 12:19)
EB: Another interesting Futures correlation is that between Platinum & the Yen. RJ make an insightful analysis WITH SUPPORTING CHARTS in his study: "RJ - Platinum Factor." SEE:

(Tue Jul 01 1997 12:20)
FCOJ - It will be Golden.
More history and then I will shut-up. And sorry for talking about Oranges when the talk is on PGM's and personal attacks.

Has anyone overlayed JON7 with GCQ7? Isn't it weird? I have a new theory... that can rival the YEN/PLAT model. It's the EB's OJ/GOLD. I have been W/W ( watching and waiting ) for OJ to bottom and it finally seems to be there. It has been the LARGEST orange crop in history. FINALLY we may be able to see a turnaround. History says ( for everyone who has not moved to the next post ) this: BUY JOX7 on 7/3 exit 7/19 probabilities of success are 77.8%. This is looking like the TASTY trade I have been patiently waiting for with OJ...this is NOT a recommendation but more ponderance for my FUTURES friends.

AWAY...I promise.


i may hold this trade much longer than two weeks...more ponderance.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 12:20)
REB: You are right... Nary a shot needs be fired...

IMO most political objectives and actions taken by sophisticated nations in the future will be accomplished less by the military and more by other methods of "persuasion" ( i.e., economic, coalitions, threat of military might/"maybes", etc. ) . Rouge ( pseudo-military ) states with "maybes" will continue to be wild cards in the world arena - economically and politically. U.S. currently has the military reputation, but will it continue? Appearance can mean a lot - both ways ( in terms of weakness and strength ) .

"Speak softly and carry a big stick..."

"Teddy" Roosevelt

(Tue Jul 01 1997 12:21)
Damn the server!

(Tue Jul 01 1997 13:01)
That is the YEN/PLAT factor I was referring to in my post. Thanks though, I'm sure others haven't seen it yet.

AWAY $$$$$


am i the omega man?...

(Tue Jul 01 1997 13:02)
I see Kitco has it's own fireworks for Canada Day.

Some Verse
(Tue Jul 01 1997 13:08)
to soothe savage breasts
As Gold descends to depths unplumbed,
The Kitco Crew begin to bicker,
With purses lean and spirits numb,
They gaze upon the falling ticker.

As tempers flare, the fearsome Bear
rampages through the golden troves,
And yet the Crew do not despair -
Somewhere down there the Great Bull roves.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 13:19)
TheHeartLand of IndustrialCanada
Front: I just returned from Canada Day celebrations along the north shore of Lake Ontario and what do I find but you signing off with an apparent permanent Good Bye. Not a positive event. A moderate and knowledgeable "non-bug" is always needed on this site where the future is known and taking its own good time to be revealed. For the last several months the nuggets are in short supply and the cheer leading and banter take up a lot of space. But the bugs are getting understandably sour, uptight and irritable as the price declines, the DOW refuses to crash and reputations and margin calls look a bit formid...scary.

About time for the second major league baseball game north of the southern frontier with only one national anthem and Molsons and Labatts are on sale. Even the Queen showed up without her kids. One of us won the Kentucky Derby and the Queen's Plate and the Russian guys are up and walking in Detroit. Merveilleux.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 13:19)
Au Canada Happy Birthday
ALL: I apologise for repeating this post from last week, but would really appreciate some information.

With so many hours to kill on airplanes thought it would be a good idea to read Stephen Fay's Silver Bubble again 10 years after first time.

ALL: I would be grateful for any information concerning Comex's powers to declare a Market Emergency.

Comex declared a Market Emergency during Feb/March 1980 ( have not brought book with me to this cybercafe so unable to recall exact date ) and allowed liquidation trading only.

In particular:

1 Have there been any other occasions when the rules were changed by Comex that effected a free market in trading?

2 Do the rules of Natural Justice apply to Comex?? in other words, is there any recourse against Comex if it changes the rules without warning?

Perhaps Tort or other legal beagles could add something here?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 13:20)
I'd like to get a look at...
those savage breasts.



can you say freudian...

(Tue Jul 01 1997 13:30)
A good omen

Belated news - but good omen - "Silver Demand seen up on Clinton solar power plan" ( Yahoo, June 27 5:43 PM EDT ) .
For full article, see Gold-Eagle "Daily News" goto Gold Daily, but type silver in the search option.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 13:37)
@ clink our glasses, eh?
OK, looks like I'll be doing some business here in Toronto during next year or two, so will be glad to come from antipodes for ( soon to be famous ) Kitco $400.00 party.

Love parties, me.

Mountains of Gold to all.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 13:47)
While picking some berries this AM I was thinking it might
be fun to have a little quiz. ( I don't have the answers )

1. In which year did France confiscate their citizens
bank savings accounts in order to pay the country's
public debt?

2. Where was Ludwig Van Mises born? Why did he come to
the United States? Which university did he teach?

3. What was the famous quotation of Lord John Maynard Keynes?

4. What was Keynes greatest error?

Neil Collett
(Tue Jul 01 1997 14:07)
When do we hear what Greenspan and the lads have to say? Imagine if he raises rates a notch! This would be a signal to Wall Street that he feels I.E. is rife ( in light of the latest US manufacturing data which indicates that the US economy is not overheating ) or alternatively a sign of Japan's political/financial strength.

Bernatz de ventadorm
(Tue Jul 01 1997 14:08)
high_peak@les pyrannees
For Monsiour le Hepcat
Ma fren - you seem to have zee tension. Tension ees a killair.
Ah suggest you switch to zee decaf cafe.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 14:09)
Someone predicted late last year ( can't recall who? ) , that Gold will bottom in 97/June. I refused to beleive but so far he is spot on. Really hope he is right and now AU begins the ascent. GSC, we all have our strong suspicions about the motives of the CB's, but we can only guess right now whether they go through with the plan and actually dispose of significant physical Gold, or just keep talking it down.
Im getting this feeling that the motive may just be to keep the
suckers ( sorry I think thats what they are ) coming in and buying paper to keep the paper market going.
If liquidation is indeed in the cards, we can expect the mine closing and the bear to continue for a while, but once terminated there will no longer be cheap Gold to lease and threats of CB manipulation.
In any case, I think long term AU bugs will be well rewarded.
Meanwhle the trick is to keep our heads well above the water. The tide
will turn...

(Tue Jul 01 1997 14:21)
MoreGold: I doubt that the CB's actually want gold to go down and mines to close. As someone else said, this would result in much higher prices of gold later. I think the CB's just want to keep things stable. I suspect that the vested interest in a lower gold price is now largely with those who are short.

Goerge Cole
(Tue Jul 01 1997 14:25)
MOREGOLD: As far as I can discern the CBs have not sold much gold, but have leased a lot bullion very cheaply. This is their primary weapon in today's gold war.

It is becoming increasingly obvious that bullion cannot stay in the 330s much longer. The open interest has risen from 150,000 to 200,000 contracts over past few weeks reflecting enormous fund short selling and massive accumulation by the commercials. We are either going to break sharply or rally strongly before many more moons have passed.

The shorts have had it all their own way the past 18 months. We shall see if they are able to score another touchdown here. An even money bet in my judgement.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 14:29)
TED & ALL: Was comment a week or three ago on difficulty contributing to Kitco from cybercafes while travelling de world.

Just open a Hotmail address ( URL ) then access Kitco from within hotmail, when Bart sends the URL for adding comments you will be able to contribute again. We do need you, eh.

BTW I have found it is best to open two Web browsers, one to read and update, the other to access into Hotmail and send contributions.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 14:40)
Venerable Jim Dines Does It Again: He found 2 gold stocks defying the big bad bear in precious metals: EURO-NEVADA & FRANCO-NEVADA. A Unique gold concept ( 6/28/97 ) . SEE Editorials:

(Tue Jul 01 1997 14:42)
Aurator ( 13:19 ) : I think you have asked this question before, with no response - am I right ? I regret that time constraints prevent me from conducting a thorough analysis, but here is a very brief synopsis:
The commodities futures markets are subject to the following Acts of Congress ( and associated Regulations ) :
Grain Futures Act ( GFA ) of 1922,
Commodity Exchange Act ( CEA ) of 1936, and
Commodity Futures Trading Commission Act ( CFTCA ) of 1974.
Within those statutes, Congress has conferred broad authority on the exchanges and the CFTC to declare "market emergency" conditions. The aim of this power ( apparently ) was to counter market manipulation, in particular, the type of "cornering" of a market attempted by the Hunts.
The statutes contain grievance and arbitration provisions ( ie. internal remedies ) ; if these are unsuccessful, recourse may be had to the courts. In Sam Wong & Son, Inc. v New York Mercantile Exchange ( 1984, CA2 NY ) 735 F2d 653, the court held that a private cause of action existed for a holder of net long positions in potato futures contracts, who alleged unlawful action on part of the exchange and its board of governors in the adoption of emergency rules in response to a developing crisis
concerning potato futures contracts. The court held that the appropriate standard of liability in such actions is "bad faith" ( ie. on the part of the exchange ) .
In such court actions, it probably would not be necessary to resort to principles of natural justice ( usually the last resort of a desperate litigator ) ; principles of administrative law ( eg. whether the exercise of the power by the agency was ultra vires, whether it was exercised for a proper purpose, etc. ) would probably suffice.
Hope this has been of assistance. Expect my outrageous bill in the mail ( only kidding! ) .

(Tue Jul 01 1997 14:42)
@ Back to FRONT
FRONT: No need to get your back up, mon. We do not all speak English as natives.

Another Churchillian quote:

"America and England are two countries divided by a common language."

Sheesh, these past few weeks I've had to speak NZ English, English English, Guernsey English and now Canadian English. I love the English languish so lets not get hung up on either grammar ( a 19th century invention ) nor spelling.

GUM SARN is coming.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 15:00)
Joke of the day
I'm just coming up for air. The metals markets are not remarkable today. The following story I ran across seems to describe us goldbugs trying to decide when the market is going to take off.

Dan really liked living in Staten Island, but he wasn't crazy
about the ferry. Miss a ferry late at night, and he'd have to spend
the next hour or two wandering the streets of lower Manhattan.
So when Dan spotted a ferry no more than twelve feet from the
dock, he decided he didn't want to wait for another. He made a running
leap and landed on his hands and knees...a little bruised maybe...but
safe on deck. As he got up, brushing himself off, he announced proudly to a passenger, "Well, I made that one, didn't I?" "Ya sure did," the passenger said. "But you should have waited a minute or two. The ferry is just about to dock."

(Tue Jul 01 1997 15:01)
Two-point conversion

Of course, whether or not BT was real was an "even money bet"
in GSC's judgement, while it was fairly obvious to most people
on this site that BT was a hoax.

Oh, BTW, gold closed down again today.
For those of you keeping track:
Monday - John 1, GSC 0
Tuesday - John 1, GSC 0

(Tue Jul 01 1997 15:02)
to Selby:

Thank you for you're kind words. You're assumption of my departing was/is correct. I believe there's something afoot by Vronsky, Cole and Sheller and is now evident.

Vronsky has a site called Gold-Eagle of which we have been informed of for a long time. Anyone who speaks about George either gets climbed on by Mike Sheller or Vronsky in a hurry. WHY? Because the contributors to Vronsky's site are, guess who?...COLE, SHELLER etc. They're right, we're wrong . They have an invested interest that they must protect at all costs. Vronsky's making money through advertising isn't he? He's got to protect the guys who show up on his site no matter that they may even be incorrect. Their mantel of excellence must not be tarnished and perhaps he can sell more advertising?

They have become unapproachable, even to humour. They are right, we are wrong. Look back at the posts. Every time hepcat or anyone else has taken George to task who's come to Georges defense?. George? He doesn't even deign to lower himself to answer posed questions. He seems to only pontificate from above.

It's been noted that a good economist will say either the time period or the event but never both. George is very good at that. Try and pin him down and the invictive escalates from those with the most to lose. Everyone else on this site knows what a ( :- ) is. But Vronsky choses to ignore it and attack. Why?

Someday George will be right. The market may go up in Gold. Hepcat says don't wait like that and gets clobbered. I joke about it and I get clobbered. What the heck is going on? Stiffling of opinion? Creation of a click? Self serving interests? There's something wrong here ...

Perhaps the king really has no clothes perhaps not but if you wait long enough you'll be very poor following other peoples advise who can't forsee the future any better than you can ... It's wrong what they're doing especially when they can't take the critism and attack en masse to anyone speaking out, joking or not.


(Tue Jul 01 1997 15:15)
Tares amongst the wheat. You know, the thing about a tare is, it looks like the real thing. The thing about a lie is, it contains some truth. Sir John, please, a little grace with all that lovely truth you are serving up. As Jack Nicholson said, You can't handle the truth. Not without grace.

Insight of the day award goes to GFD - Gold has formed a _religious_ bottom_ ( Monday 1609 post ) . A gorgeous insight! A religious bottom, I suppose, is when even the true believers are beginning to get quiet, perhaps almost depressed. No, not depressed, but subdued. You have captured the moment, my friend. From, hah, so I've lost all my mad money, things will get better, to hey, I'm getting a little tired of this.

Here's a prediction: Gold will go up close to $4 by COB Monday. The turnaround is here. It will be slow, almost difficult to recognize, but it is essentially underway.

Read the Book of Job. Once his own friends started to lambast him, he hit: a religious bottom. Once he was thoroughly humbled, things started to turn around.

The Law of the Religious Bottom. When the last of us has lost all hope, the day will dawn, that golden orb will lift its shining arc oer the tearful horizon, the jaybird will sound his playful mirth, and the last child will arise to a day of dreams.

From the bottom,


(Tue Jul 01 1997 15:21)
Aurator: You're welcome.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 15:46)
@feeling pain
I think we are feeling each other's pain, and this is really getting to us. Back in 1993 I didn't have Kitco. I suffered alone. When gold hit 335/oz I was hurting then. Somehow I intuitively knew the bottom was in. Then Dan Dorfman came on with a bunch of gold stock recommendations, and I bought. Made a bundle. I fear that my exposure to Kitco has warped my intuitive sense of timing. It has also educated me immensely. A year ago I didn't know a wit about how the CBs were affecting the price. Six months ago I didn't completely understand why there was all this short selling. Now I do. This is because of Kitco. What I seem to have lost is my sense of timing. Analytically I know gold will rise but not when. This group dynamic we have has helped and hindered me. So I'll go now somewhat depressed that I wasn't really able to communicate what I was feeling. Losing a lot of money really does suck.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 15:49)
John Disney and Searle: I`m sure you can`t hear any more questions about SA-stocks, specially when you also owned some of them and must face daily losses ( I have no better fate ) . But you are the best resource about those news: I readed today, if Goldprice keeps on falling, in the near future some SA-mines must be closed. Which could this be?

John the Hepcat: Your post of the last 2 days reminds me at your disput with Mooney about Flag Res in the other Kitko-discussion.
I think: your opinion often contains truth, you`re right, gold has been a bad investment over the last year. But you should tell this opinion in a more friendly way and without personal attacks ( remember: In the same matter you call in a forest the echo will be ) . Then, I`m sure, your predictions would be wellcome.

Oldman: In review, his sooner posts had included much wisdom. One of his posts to remember:
Date: Wed Nov 20 00:26Old Man: . The reason most people won't use a system like the 1,2,3, is they have been indoctrinated from their trading infancy with "Buy low-sell high". I can tell you with certainty that this approach will break you. It will have you buying every rally in bear markets ( like gold this year ) and selling every correction in a bull market ( like stocks this year ) . If you want to have more money every year then you must learn to "buy high and sell higher" in bull markets and "sell low and buy lower" in bear markets.

If I would have ovserved this advice, I would not standing here, pockets full of gold-shares and losses. Oldman, wouldn`t you share this wisdom never more?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 16:10)
SJJ and others: There is so much defeatist comment here that I have to say something. No one should expect to be able to buy at the bottom and
sell at the top. Anyone who does this is just plain lucky in my opinion. Also, unless you are extremely leveraged, it is not necessary that asset positions always go your way. A position may go against you for awhile before it turns your way. Ultimately we all rely on our own judgement to buy low sell, high ( call it something else if you want ) . We either win or lose based on these judgements. Also, when sentiment is the worst is usually the best time to buy. I ( and many others ) have been through this before. It was this bad or worse for bonds and stocks twewnty years ago, and at that time those who were in gold or other hard assets were the one's who were patting themselves on the back.

Diversification is always smart, but gold aint dead IMO.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 16:14)
L Steve : This gem was posted yesterday. Works better than two aspirins, far better.

Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 14:19
Lurker ( I am sick of this ) :
Please, Please, Lord, Let there be another gold boom!!!!
I promise not to piss it away next time.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 16:56)
NJ: I feel your pain...It reminds me of me...and of lyrics from a Jimmy Buffet song:

" ..... I made enough money to buy Miami but I pissed it away so fast...Wasn't meant to last..."

and he says later " ......I gotta stop wishin', gotta go fishin', I'm down to rock bottom again...."

Hmmmm... Hits close to home. Didn't know Buffet was into gold too.

BTW, any more Parrotheads out there in Margaritaville?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 17:30)
FSAGX closed up for the second day in a row. Spot Platinum is up. The best possible world would be the S&P 500 going to 1000 and dragging the XAU up to 200 with it. Sounds like some feelings have been bent here today. Reminds me of a line from a song from my youth: "Make new friends, but keep the old. One is silver, the other is gold."

SJJ: I have never seen your posts before. Welcome!

(Tue Jul 01 1997 17:31)
FRONT: Oh my! Aren't you afraid? You'll be cyber-slurred and slimed from here to Hong Kong!

But, you're right. Been in and out since this site came on line. Vronsky only repeats what he reads and hears elsewhere, which can be useful. But geez Vronsky, give these people a break! Service your ego somewhere else for a while. And Cole's breakout is always a couple of months out as he cycles through the same analysis, offering little by way of the same message in different context. Original thinkers are a scarce commodity, and you won't find one in either of those wrappings.

Better to do your own legwork.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 17:38)
John ( Hepcat ) :

I'm not sure what your beef is with everyone here. Would you like everyone who posts an incorrect prediction to fall on his sword? Why does it concern you so much that other people express opinions? I could see if this was a stock bulletin board and you were incensed by an obviously fraudulent promotion, but here we are just talking about gold et al. No one, including yourself and myself really knows for sure whats going to happen to the price of any of these things. We all make guesses based upon whatever rational we choose. No one here is making any money off selling these opinions so whats the problem.

If you do feel strongly about the price of gold heading farther downwards and would like to keep score in a more interesting way than your most recent post, I offer you a reasonable proposition. I'll wager one ounce of gold that we reach a price of $400.00 per ounce, before we hit $300 per ounce ( London Fix ) . This way if you are right you can hold onto a shining chunk of metal. Much better than an electronic scoreboard, don't you think?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 17:40)
Aquarian Imperative:
Mike Sheller: Wonderful piece, a tour de force. Excellent summary of past and present, cause and effect. I truely hope your vision of so benign a future is also correct. However the forces of darkness seem to be putting in some more planks of their own. Did you notice our supreme counts say it is ok to throw someone in prison because he is a "threat to society" ,no crime required.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 17:51)

D.A. - I don't have a beef with everyone. I would like to have people
take some responsibility for their opinions when they are consistently
wrong. I would be embarrassed into quietude if I made some of the
outlandish predictions that some make on this form. As far a gold
going to $300 before it goes to $400, I can't see past $325. You're
talking about a price that hasn't been approached in a very long
time versus a price we saw as early as last year. I guess it would
be more fair if we said gold to $300 before gold to $600, but then,
if I lost, I would have to give you a very expensive piece of metal,
and I might experience some selective memory loss.

One thing that I would definitely go for on this channel is restricting
the number of posts/day to five or so each. That way, when people did
contribute, they would contribute something meaningful, and we
wouldn't have this barrage of advertisement and one-line E-mail
reminders to wade through.

Bill Buckler
(Tue Jul 01 1997 17:51)
I see tempers are fraying a bit here at Kitco. Have a look at
something different. I have posted an update on my $A - $US Gold comparison charts
and added a long term ( monthly ) $A Gold bar chart at

$A Gold has a long-term base around $A 430-435. It recently
traded as low as $A 434 and is now at $A 443. As you will see
on the detailed P&F chart of $A Gold, the uptrend is still perfectly
intact. For $A Gold to re-enter its post 1996 downtrend, either $US Gold
will have to fall to at least its 1993 lows or the $A is going to have
to spike up against the $US.

John Cruedel's piece in the New York Post ( George Cole Jun 30 9:00 ) is
interesting. He comes to a similar conclusion to the one I came to
in my op-ed of June 24. He doesn't highlight the "Gold" aspect of
Hashimoto's comments, though. I regard that as the most significant
part of his statement.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 17:56)
Loosing? Think Positive
To the Majority:

I don't post too much but read most of the time. I feel sorry for there are plenty on this site lately feeling bad of loosing at "this time". HAVE FUN AND DON'T WORRY! I positioned plenty in gold in January 1997 and I lost to date about 7% to 17% from various investments ( stocks and mutual funds ) . I don't gripe. I hanged on. I missed selling on one upswing so I'll wait again and won't sell until that time. I GOT TIME TO WAIT; and I don't need now what I put in anyhow. There is similarity in gambling and investing- DON'T GAMBLE/INVEST THAT YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOOSE AND HAVE FUN. We lost in the casino last weekend and had fun. We'll be back this weekend and ready to loose again but for sure we'll have fun. Investing in gold now is much better that playing on the table of the casinos. Hang on and don't sell. Six months ago I thought bottom is near. Now I am still thinking the bottom is near, and if I am wrong again ...I'll wait. It's a matter of waiting patiently and have fun while waiting for the next day action in gold. Chances of bull now is much brighter than six months ago. My stocks are holding while the spot is going down.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 17:56)
Front..... Very disappointed to read your "GOODBYE" post as
you have provided some very valuable posts. I respect your
opinion, not about to argue. But I would like to state for the
record, that I push seven figures around in the gold Market
and have found BOTH Vronsky and Cole to be very helpful
and feel that they ( as well as others ) have contributed to
me making one HELL of a lot of MONEY.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 18:00)
@ nobody knows
There has been a lot of good information discussed by this group, but nobody is able to predict what will happen tomorrow. People make guesses and when they get lucky and are even close to correct, everyone applauds them as if they actually KNEW something. When gold actually begins to climb I will jump aboard, but at the slightest downturn I will abandon ship, hopefully with a little profit.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 18:00)

Schippi - Holy cow. We have a lot in common. I push seven figures around in the gold market, too. Unfortunately, the first four figures are zeros ;- )

(Tue Jul 01 1997 18:05)
ear biting
john : Seems you missed my 16:22 of yesterday, so I am repeating it here. You really are doing a Mike Tyson act on everyone in this group. It is getting tiresome by now.

Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 16:22
NJ ( Forecasts ) :
NotaGoldbug : There is nothing wrong with presenting a minority opinion to a discussion group. The group invariably gains by that and this group is no exception. You were correct in
your forecast of the gold market and deserve at least as much recognition as the analysts who, during the same time period, were recommending purchase of 'any' DJII stock following a dip in the market. My only objection is to the vitriol and personal attacks. Unless, of course, if you are looking for the Mike Tyson medal.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 18:05)
TOM... Your July 1,17:31 post is so TACKY, it really does not
deserve a reply. Since I have found Vronsky and Cole's posts
( as well as others ) to be very profitable, I can only wonder
if you are capable of understanding the material being posted!
Also just what great contributions have you made to this site?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 18:12)
How about a truce.Everybody knows the games people play here.Something I posted A year ago on Kitco.Gold rises and falls,but never changes hands.Prices explode or wilt for any reason or no reason.Try to put a face on it? Your trend is your best friend so simple yet we all love reading some of the bullshit.Happy trails

George S. Cole
(Tue Jul 01 1997 18:14)
CB Thinking
Sometimes it pays to try to see the world as the "enemy" ( in this case the CBs ) might see it. Does Alan Greenspan really want to see gold drop to $300 or lower? I doubt it.

As many here have pointed out, gold at such a depressed level would trigger many mine closures and greatly increase the odds that the next move up would go well above the $400 "line in the sand." Second, friction between South Africa and the G-7 probably would increase substantially. Third a drastic decline in gold prices would add additional fuel to what is already the greatest stock market bubble in history. I doubt very much if Mr. Greenspan wants to see this bubble expand further. I suspect he is very concerned already and would much rather see the Dow drop 1000 points than rise another 1000 points from here. If I were in Alan Greenspan's shoes I would want to see gold stabilized at $340-$350 an ounce, not plunging to $300 or $250.

Wall Street is a different matter. Concerned only with prolonging the bubble as long as possible, I'm sure they would just love to see the yellow stuff plunge to $300 or lower.

If Mr. Greenspan and his colleagues at the other major CBs decide that the gold bear has gone too far for their own best LONG RUN interests, look for them to tighten up on gold leases by making less bullion available and charging borrowers more for it.

But don't look for the CBs to start the next gold bull. The most we can hope for from them is a rally to $350 or so to head off mine closures and help cool off the financial markets. A sustained gold bull is virtually impossible until the financial roller coaster goes off a cliff ( or at least a steep hill ) and private investor demand revives.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 18:29)

Retired - Regardless, you have to be impressed at how "lucky" I
was as foretelling the sale of gold by Belgium at a time when
GSC was wondering whether BT was real or not. Do you see the
difference? A lucky guess would have been to say, "Some country
is going to announce they are selling gold tomorrow". But I named
the country. How many countries are there in the world, Retired?
Whose side would you want to be on?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 18:40)
@the market
Well, my call for a reversal of any duration for Monday fizzled! Calling for 7-8 dollar move and wind up with barely more than tenth of it! HAR! Guess they are going to drag it out. So what else is new?

I see Hepcat is back, bitchin' about the goldbugs again. Ah well. I don't think anybody would have ever had a problem with him in the first place if he had ever explained his rational. He and BBW. Something that no one but RJ has done in more than a year. And his was that he 'kicked it and it didn't move'. The best and only so far! Congratulations RJ! You're the first on Kitco to post any rational for a continued downward movement in gold in more than a year!


(Tue Jul 01 1997 18:44)

How about 345 before 325? You've got only 9 bucks to go and I have 11.

Re the responsibility issue: If you find someone's opinions are consistently wrong then use them. As I have posted here in the past, I have found Alan Sinai to be almost infallable is his ability to call the bond market incorrectly. It has been very helpful to me over many years. If GSC is your contrarian indicator then by all means use it. The game of the markets is to make money, not to win friends and influence people. Just do it.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 18:59)

Hepcat: If you are wrong on 3-2-5, will you be gracious enough to post here that you were wrong? I am sure many others will help to remind you.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 19:05)
Friend of Big Foot
George...your post about most bigwigs and SA favoring a price of about $350
is very intuitive. My own thinking is that gold will in the near future
move over 400 so as the miners in every country can sell foward and hold out for at least
two years.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 19:10)

D.A. - How about $326 before $345? I have a feeling Schippi and some others
will jump in in a massive way before we reach $325 just to teach me a lesson.
I'm giving you guys a break before Independence Day - Gold will have the
chokehold released and actually end on a higher note tomorrow and
Thursday. If I'm wrong, I'm sure someone will remind me.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 19:10)
Charlie's Dow won the marathon; now what? (July 1, 1997 REPORT)
The inimitable Gene Inger sees interesting plateau where permabulls are pressed to find value, while permabears are locked in short cells. NOW ITS TIME FOR CAUTION! See INGER LETTER FORECAST:

(Tue Jul 01 1997 19:12)
@cover your shorts
The journey begins tomorrow! We will not see 3-2-5!

(Tue Jul 01 1997 19:18)
I'm beginning to believe that a rally mit happen. I was watching tha XAU rally and the low sentiment on the floor. I'm not long or short right now and I'm not sure what I'll do here but I thought I'd pass it on. There was alot more put buying done today. I just keep thinking that if we rally how high could we go? It seems like there would be alot more selling on any rallies and that if we go up $4 we then may go down $10. It's a tough call.
Today was very slow on the Floor so I did alot of thinking. If gold goes down any more from here I think silver will go down real hard from here. ie 440-450 area.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 19:27)
@the scene
Glenn -- I second that! It is very possible to see silver at the 4.4 area! Just as possible for gold to either first spike down hard or to do so after a one or two day run up of a few bucks! Makes it a bit difficult to just jump in. Day trading anyone?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 19:29)
John @hepcat:

Since you are obviously a man of impeccable intellectual integrity, I would urge you to do some research on my posted opinions - before you recast them for me. I have not ever forecast gold in terms of either price or time. On the contrary, I have stated, on several occasions, that as a manipulated market, it was beyond rational prediction. My opinion remains unchanged.

Furthermore, your expressions of concern for the welfare of others carries with it the unmistakeable markers of a "Messiah Complex". You are the "Anointed One". The bearer of all truth. Sent from on high, to smite those who would do harm to the gentle sheep. In turn, you might do well to spend an extra hour each day, in your praying chamber, contemplating whether or not you are really cut out for the role of Messiah.

What a low opinion you have of your fellows and the process of formulating and communicating ideas. All the while you have begged, pleaded, badgered, browbeaten and verbally cajoled others to accept your monotonic, unsupported opinion; I have yet to see one shred of supporting fact in ANY SINGLE ONE of your posts. Nada, zip, zero, khong, .... not one! Only the monotonic refrain: "I am "Big John", bearer of the enlightenment and you must believe me above all others". In a word: Bullshit!

Please bear in mind that nothing is bought and sold on this site. Not even information. It's a repository of personal opinion and nothing more. None here, has a vested interest in misleading our fellow's. There is simply no personal gain to be had. Some will find it useful and some others may find it an avenue to financial destruction. That is an unfortunate fact of life. It is also called tuition in the school of hard knocks. It's their choice. Not yours. You have every right to post your opinion, along with everyone else. You do not however carry the right or obligation to villify the efforts of others. Most especially, in light of the poor quality of your own.

Use my name again, in any of your post's, and I'll hound you for the useless skunk that you truly are. Eh amigo?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 19:38)
Straws in the Wind?
The noble metal a little stronger tonight despite further strength in the dollar. A portent of things to come?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 19:41)
@the scene
Earl -- Damn, but you're GoooooD! It would have been SO nice to listen for any rational way back then for that kind of positioning in the market. But no matter how much we asked, cajoled, or other, none was ever forthcoming! Must be top secret or something. In any case, one can not make a long term investment given the terms such as, 'It just is'! Nah! Give 'em hell!

John Doe
(Tue Jul 01 1997 19:49)
Now we know! John hepcat ( repack on SI ) is the anti-christ! the end of the world is near!

ted butler
(Tue Jul 01 1997 19:56)
Earl and silver
Damn you Earl, I was gonna say that. So I'll say something about silver instead.

Two things I find noteworthy. One, we went into a major first notice day with no net build in warehouse stocks ( we're at the year's low for anyone tracking this ) . Second, open interest exploded with monday's trade. Although, on the surface,we only went up 2K contracts on the decline in price due to fund selling into contract lows, we should have declined in open interest 5K contracts due to the mechanical offset from the 5k deliveries. In other words, we actually jumped 7K in open interest, which in my interpretation puts silver also at a record level for spec fund shorts. The next COT report will confirm this or not. If I'm correct, gold and silver are on the launch pad. It's possible we could go a little bit lower with increasing OI if there are more stupid shorts anxious to sell more, but the next major move is up.

One bit of trivia. Ten years and two months ago, silver jumped from 5.25 to 11.25 in two weeks and one day. I think gold may have jumped a 100, but I'm just guessing, i wasn't in it. There was no stock sell off or anything unusual as i recall.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 20:00)
To read Kitco these days is like being at work when problem is found.
Finger pointing, challenges, confessions, people coming out of the
woodwork. What a sorry state of affairs. I've even been affected -

Last week I come up with a trade that I thought could turn $500-$1000
a contract in a week or two. I positioned myself to execute the trade
on Monday. Over the weekend, I read a post on Kitco that was almost
exactly my trade. The poster is someone who doesn't have my respect
as a person - this caused me to rethink my trade. I couldn't bring myself
to execute the trade on Monday - a foolish mistake on my part. I let
personnal feelings interfer with a good trade. The position is $600 per
contract in the money right now.

Like alot of other Kitco readers - I have a decision to make. Kitco has
changed alot this year. The change is very similar to what happened to
the internet over the last 5 years. It use to be a nice place where similar
minded people politely communicated with each other. We had ways of
dealing with the unpolite people. The problems from the real world
didn't exist in our world. Then the ISPs started hanging out their
signs, the real world people and their impolite ways started showing up.
At first we dealt with them - then we tolerated them - now we need them
to expand the bandwidth and fund our new projects.
Here at Kitco I see us at "the dealing with them" level. Some are
already at the "tolerate level". A few know what I am saying - they
were there also. I really miss Churls and Crank. But times changes,
just remember why we came here in the first place.

SJJ: Oldman is now part of a pay-for service that teaches people to
trade. You can draw your own conclusions.

Front: If you read this - good luck. Thanks for the words of wisdom
you shared.

Gunrunner/Real Gunrunner: I hope you both continue to post here -
your insight into the world of war/fighting is important to the markets.

EB: Please correct me if I'm wrong - you have posted 3 trades now that
historically have gone up over 70% of the time from 7/3 for 2 to 3 weeks.
OJ, Crude Oil, and gold. Is that correct? Please forgive me, but this
sounds like a commerical. Even so, I will be looking at these tonight -
thank you for the tip.

For anyone who is still reading - Pa/Pl have continued their monthly
pattern of rising/spiking during the beginning of the month. I look for
both to continue this trend for the next 2 weeks. I had debated with
myself if the pattern would hold for July with the holiday. It did.
IMHO, this supports my view that the industrial consumers make thier
purchases during the beginning of the month. Around the 3rd week of the
month they leave the market and the speculators move the price. I've
found it better to be buying dips and selling on the rallies the first 2
weeks of the month and staying out the last 2 weeks. But then, 1st
notice of Sept. PA is next month - everything goes out the window.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 20:06)
@the scene
Observer -- If what we now have as a low is not THE low, then DO be prepaired for a good spike down to at least the 331 or even the 325 area! It won't be hard to detect. Any breakdown below current lows should get us there. IMHO!

(Tue Jul 01 1997 20:11)
Eldorado: it wont happen.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 20:14)

344 before 326. One ounce of .999 fine gold, coin or bar. Are you in?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 20:14)
Sell the Dow and buy 23.04 oz. of gold or 1671 oz of silver. Sounds like a right move to me.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jul 01 1997 20:15)
capital appreciation
BW: Thanks for the comments. I fear there will be much weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth before the "benign" part of my "Aquarian Imperative" scenario comes to pass.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 20:18)
@solar power for china@titania solar cell
George S. Cole , Vronsky and others provide the backbone to which the
body of work posted by fellow goldbugs is attached. We would be lost
at sea if were not ever looking for a change in prevailing winds. George
S. Cole is constantly looking for those wind changes and he is most welcome aboard my fishing boat, anyday. I like to equate markets with fire and this is my offering. Rather than
stick my hand into the towering inferno called the dow and have it
burnt off, I find it wiser to look for those coals glowing red, to nurture them, feed them oxygen and more fuel and in time I will have
a fire that I will then be able to pass onto others so it can keep them
warm. Gold like a sick child should not be abandoned! As we all know,
that sick child could be a future leader of people. Resolute and

(Tue Jul 01 1997 20:22)
@the scene
Lurker -- Maybe and maybe not. Personally, I don't care, but others might. Therefore I'll share what insights I might have. Since you seem to know otherwise, perhaps you'll share your wisdom with the rest of us 'Earthers'!

(Tue Jul 01 1997 20:47)
The Point of Maximum Optimism by Michael Belkin (Strategic Investment)
Internationally acclaimed Market Analyst asserts over-valuation, irrational exuberance, expanded risk-exposure & technical hyper over-extension will cause horrendous losses when bubble bursts. See Editorials:

(Tue Jul 01 1997 20:57)
Fed to raise rates 1/4.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 21:02)
All : E maill from an analyst in London confirms the probability of a bottom and a good entry point.

"Gold is running sideways at the moment on very low volatility, an
ideal time to get in in fact, but at the last download, CoT figures
showed the Large Specs well short. The trouble is that at all the
major reversals in Gold prices in the past, the position of the Large
Specs has changed from well net short to well net long during the
reporting fortnight!. One can but hope that it is not a spike
change, but a roundish one, as this should allow a considered entry
into Gold."

(Tue Jul 01 1997 21:02)
Deaner, who called XAU in mid 90's, calls for fireworks coming up:

Solar Power? Expensive
(Tue Jul 01 1997 21:04)
Try Hydrogen
Try Hydrogen ( Put a few hydrogen atoms in a vacuum-sealed, three-quart stainless steel "can", add a few tablespoons of a common chemical compound, turn up the heat to about 250 degrees ( Centigrade, that is ) and what do you get? If you know what you're doing, you can get 10 to 20 times more energy than you put in, a clean and limitless source of power, and a proven answer to one of the big secrets of the universe. That's what Dr. Randell Mills and his BlackLight Power Inc. ( BLP ) have discovered over the last six years of work in the laboratory. And the Malvern, PA - based research company is gearing up to make the "BlackLight Power Effect" the dominant energy source of the future.

Solar Power? Expensive
(Tue Jul 01 1997 21:06)
Carbonecous Waste
or how bout Carbonecous Waste to energy ( converting carbonaceous materials into clean-burning medium BTU fuel gas which can be used for electrical power generation or for conversion into a variety of valuable chemicals ) .

(Tue Jul 01 1997 21:07)
FWIW,Possibly a weak gold rally for one to two weeks with the Dow
staying flat and platinum taking the biggest jump.
Dow going into the blow-off scenario with gold being shorted the
same time into the third week.We could see a strong spike to the
downside for gold and the Dow taking out new highs.
IMHO,this could very well be THE low for bullion with another low at the
end of September.Goldstocks will bottom in spring of 98.
Hedgefunds are long paper and short metals.The liquidity squeeze will
force the shorts to cover when the market tanks.
This could be highly deflationary
Be very interesting to watch.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 21:08)
According to EBN, Dollar down against all major currencies...yet gold reported down .55...thought there was inverse relationship between weakness in Dollar and strength in gold...any comments?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 21:09)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
Fourth Of July FSAGX & FDPMX Rally UNDERWAY?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 21:18)
Front: I expect you will do as you like. I started tuning into K-1 about a year ago and read everything on a daily basis--sold virtually all my precious metal stocks in Oct-Nov'96 when gold was about 370 I believe and put the money into the dreaded stock market and have been rewarded with major profits riding the subsequent boom. Since I started posting about a year ago I have been called many names most notably "ignoramous' for suggesting that those who think they can get gold to go against the tide by stating that it should or must have got it all wrong. This is a collection of true believers who do band together when some one says "gold is going down not up" and that is to be expected. If you want to know how any event on any day could/may raise the price of precious metals --this is the place to tune into.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 21:22)
@the scene
WDL -- Nope! No more relationship between the dollar and gold. Gold is basically on its own until something of a real event happens. Let us repeat REAL! Therefore, I recommend trading it on only that merit ( or de-merit, as the case may be ) ! That makes it much more technical in nature, in-so-far as charting goes, than real fundamentals at this time. Besides, you wouldn't hear about a 'fundamental' reason for a move up until well after the fact anyway! Fundamentals can exist for a long time before a move begins. They come into the news after the move is well into play. Better to watch the previous days' call volume in options for HUGE differences! That'll work 'better'!

(Tue Jul 01 1997 21:26)
On the front page of yesterday's Naples Florida Newspaper is a story about a black BEAR that found its way to a neighborhood on the outskirts of downtown Naples. While the public appearance of any bear these days is newsworthy, the fate of this particular BEAR is a perfect metaphor of the times in the paper markets: THEY SURROUNDED HIM WITH SHOTGUNS, DRUGGED HIM ( PROZAC? ) and PUT HIM BACK IN THE WOODS!!

(Tue Jul 01 1997 21:27)
seer@not an oldman
Front; I hope youchange your mind and stay on at Kitco. It would be a shame if this site became the eclusive domain of those with a commercial stake in the internet.

GOLD PRICE PREDICTION. The overwhelming pessimism concerning the future of the gold price is the best indicator of the reverse position. I amreminded of the negativity affecting another commodity; computer chips. The pessimistic attitude on the Net last year caused masive selling of semiconducter stocks.The MU thread on S.I. was taken over by the short sellers and the consencus estimate for MU was $5 by mid-1997.

Shortly threafter, and even before a turnaround in the book to bill ratio,the bottomfeeders dived in, followed by the major houses whose analysts turned on a dime with their buy an hold recommendations,followed by the short sellers who were now long. MU doubled in short order and AMD quadrupled.

GOLD PREDICTION: The bear has ended. Not will end, but has ( past tense ) ended. Gold will now trade in narrow 327-338 range for the next
several weeks while gold stocks will steadily rise ahead of the gold rally.
Contrary to past experience, the rally will be firmly underway in August
before spiking to $440 by late September.
The SA stocks will be the best indicator of the move to come. Watch for
Vaaal Reef at over $6, Kloof at over 73/4 and Drief at 8 3/4; Asa over

(Tue Jul 01 1997 21:32)
@the scene
Selby -- It isn't the fact that they said gold was going down. Hell, the charts themselves were pointing it down. It is only that no rational was ever given for their thoughts that it was bound for the 330 area. NONE what-so-ever! Like I said earlier, it all must be 'top-secret' or something!

(Tue Jul 01 1997 21:47)
Eldorado: Your memory is somewhat selective - I have heard a number of rationales ( the word does in fact contain an "e" ) offered here for the decline in the price of gold. Among these are: gold does not pay interest or dividends; gold is a "safe haven" investment and we are in a period of relative stability; the stock market is booming and the return there is much better than for gold. The decisive factor has also been mentioned, most recently by George Cole ( hasn't he had his ear bitten off today ! ) - gold is simply out of favour with investors at the present time.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 21:49)
Are we all done with the food fight around here? Good, I thought so. Now, on to the business at hand. Currency turmoil anyone?

Thai Baht in trouble, get the Batphone and call... Japan!

Real Thoughts
(Tue Jul 01 1997 21:50)
@stop arsen around with alchemy
Hey solar dude, blow up your own thermos and start shovelling.
I spose you can increase the atomic weight of lead too.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 21:50)
BlackLight Power
For those who might be interested in following up on BlackLight Power the following is a good summary:

I became aware of Dr. Mills during the early flap on cold fusion. It would appear that he has a couple of electric companies investing in his ideas as there has been independent validation of his experiments by people at Penn State U. and other labs.

Personally somewhat surprised he was still twitching as there was never that much interest in his novel theories. Also people with new theories of physics tend to be ( usually correctly ) labled as nutbars and tend to die penniless.

Put this in the same category as the "dirts" - interesting lab bench results that must now be scaled up to large, reliable industrial processes - a process absolutely fraught with peril.

Absolutely profound implications if they are successful.

Home page of BlackLight is:

(Tue Jul 01 1997 21:51)
@the scene
Impartial -- Given 'those', it could be sitting at 380, no problem!

(Tue Jul 01 1997 21:55)
Good Point ( :- ) ) !!

(Tue Jul 01 1997 22:04)
@the scene
GFD -- Interesting! Thanks!

(Tue Jul 01 1997 22:08)
@New England
I am a a Liberal but not a Clinton Fan ( just trying to stir up some debate instead of unfortunately guessing gold's next dollar move ) but BC has it right on Cap gains and Estates. On Cap Gains you can exclude 30% of any gain from income on gains with respect to property held more than one year. Then you apply the regular tax rate to the remaining amount ie if you earn 250k or more your rate remains near 28% ie 40% marignal rate times the 70% included as taxable incomeand so on with the various rates. The lower your income the more you benefit!!This is a great tax break on gains for low earners but almost no break for the rich.

Clinton's estate tax relief only comes where certain members of the family work in the business or family farm . Otherwise all is the same as the existing law. There is no relief where there is no direct participation in the business thus, stks and bonds which are passive investments will be taxed at full boat.

Clinton aint perfect but he still has a sense of Economic and Social Justice!!!

(Tue Jul 01 1997 22:10)
@...China for thought
Now with HK in its fold China has leaped into a leading role as an Information Technology provider. Once Tiawan is eventully taken-over by the Reds China with be one of the world's largest manufacturers and exporters of computer chips, motherboards, and peripheral devices.

Kofi Annan
(Tue Jul 01 1997 22:12)
@A Quote From My Good Buddy...
"Today the American people would react with outrage if foreign troops were called into Los Angeles to restore order. Very soon they will welcome it..."

--Henry Kissinger

(Tue Jul 01 1997 22:21)
@the scene
WW -- GEE! Now I'm all for becoming less endowed with monetary riches so I can take advantage of all those breaks! Let's all quit trying to better our standard of living! The government is against it! All laws should be applied EQUALLY to ALL! Not to INCOME!

(Tue Jul 01 1997 22:26)
Martian And Other Assorted Evil Empires
I say Kofi old chap, do you happen to know whether those foreign troops that Henry was talking about were terrestial or extra-terrestial?? :- )

For those of you who want something more terrestial I invite you to consider the following:

Is Microsoft eyeing CBS?
By Reuters July 1, 1997, 9:40 a.m. PT

Microsoft ( MSFT ) is reviewing the finances of Westinghouse Electric's CBS unit as it considers making a bid to buy the network, the New York Post reported today.

The newspaper, quoting sources close to the situation, said four Microsoft executives were reviewing CBS finances. But CBS executives denied such a deal is in the works.

"I can say, no there isn't anything to [the story]," said the executive, who declined to be identified. "We're not selling it. We're building it."

The newspaper said Microsoft, the world's biggest computer software company, viewed CBS as a valuable weapon in its battle with broadcasters as they seek to define the future of digital television.

Microsoft already has a relationship with one network. MSNBC, a joint venture of Microsoft and NBC, operates a cable news station that corresponds to a multimedia Web site.

The newspaper also reported that Seagrams "is also said to be looking at CBS." Seagrams owns Universal Studios.

Microsoft's and Seagrams' interest in CBS was said to be preliminary; it was not clear if offers would be made, the Post said.

Microsoft, Seagrams, and Westinghouse were quoted as declining to comment

ted butler
(Tue Jul 01 1997 22:38)
I'm with WW. This is the best our representatives can come up with, some tinkering with an impossibly complex code to benefit the top 2%? What statesmen. The scary thing is that Clinton is the only one raising an objection. God help us all.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 22:47)
MORE GOLD.....You could be referring to conversations between APH and me in November, I believe. I said that my chart/timing/cycle study appeared to have gold bottoming in the June/July/August, 1997 area with the most probable being in mid July. APH keeps notes on this stuff and can probably tell you the exact date. Also included was an approximate $/oz.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 22:51)

been to where the ladybugs go. one really beautiful spot.

the volcano 70 miles outside of mexico city is fixing to wreak
havoc on its' 12 million+ inhabitants. what the people see is
a warning from on high, to get the hell out of there while
still able.

here we have a volcano fixing to blow its' top and ruin
the lives of millions of people. kind-of resembles the
current situation in the stock market today. the natual
things around us, give insights of what to expect in life.
cycles of seemingly natural, and un-natural events.
hep-cat--it is not hip to be hep all the time! put a
bag over your head, and breathe deeply. the hiccups ( and devil )
will go away.

chaos has waited too long in the wings for his day. flux
has taken the banner and is rushing to affix the standard
in all places of power. the flow has begun. ride the crest,
or be crushed as it swallows all in its' path.

cherokee!; ) slayer-of-the-naysayers and heretics.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 22:55)
Gold may be ready to move up, but I find it hard to get really optimistic about any dramatic surge. So much forward selling into any upward move. What about the one presentation at the gold conference last month about gold gradually becoming demonetized, and other people saying that goldbugs are following ideas that are 50 years old. I don't agree that the old ways don't apply anymore, but there may be some substance to those views, that the role of gold and the behaviour of gold prices is undergoing a major change.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 22:59)
Currency stability problems causing Dollar problems?

Spill over for Thai baht?

Philippines peso in trouble?

George S. Cole
(Tue Jul 01 1997 23:07)
Bear over?
YOUNGMAN: Didn't it start that way in early 1993 -- gold stocks moving up for several weeks before bullion joined in. Gold stocks have risen for two consecutive days with bullion flat to down. IF THIS ACTION PERISTS FOR A FEW MORE DAYS, I will be inclined to agree with you that the bear is over. But the evidence to date is inconclusive.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jul 01 1997 23:11)
Silver's last big spike
TED BUTLER: re your 19:56 about the Silver spike & gold rally of spring '87 - I believe it came on the heels of a tanking bond market. After a savage leg down, the bonds stabilized briefly, then continued to dive, setting up the '87 stox crash. As I recall, the bonds were going down sharply for a while before the metals took off in spring '87. Also, Jupiter was at 19 Aries ( NYSE Moon - major silver significator ) at the time. At this very moment, Saturn is 19 Aries, right on top of that NYSE Moon.If its rally time for silver, it's now or never.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 23:14)

Earl - Would that I had all the power you ascribed to me. I apologize
for accidentally posting that one time using your name. I think it was
fairly obvious from the text that it wasn't you posting but me posting
a message to you. Sometimes we all get a little excited in our desire
to get the words out and mistakes are made. You have a titular hangup.
I promise to watch that from now on. Me, on the other hand, see, I've
got this problem with expletives. I would kindly ask you to refrain from
barnyard noises in future communiques, should you deign to address me
Earl, Earl, Earl - I hesitate to repeat myself. Aurophile and GSC have
given us wonderful, well-reasoned, well-researched, incisive, hard-
hitting, authoritative, brilliant, witty, trenchant, perspicacious, thorough
( yes, all this, and even toll-free ) analyses over the past year, all of which are as useless to me as if they had written a missive on why it is aerodynamically
impossible for the bumblebee to fly. Why? Because up to this point
they have been completely unable or unwilling to incorporate
what is going on around them into their analyses. ( Reminds me of the Monty Python sketch where live election results are being reported from a news station and the broadcasters turn to their analyst after a district result is announced and he says, "Exactly as I predicted, except the other side won." ) .
As I stated to Zeev on SI, I don't know where the fact that Belgium is going
to sell gold appears on a chart. Does the chart suddenly spell out the
word "Belgium"? How would you like me to back up the information that
Belgium was going to sell gold? How could I present it so that you would
believe it? Would you like a testimonial from the head of the Belgium CB
with some kind of secret code word inserted that would tip you off to its
Earl, the sad fact is that I have been correct since last September. The
POG has borne me out at every step. I don't need to package it - it
has packaged itself. I have expended absolutely zero effort
in analysis. None. I've been able to do my daily work, far removed
from this topic, AND predict the POG. I'm not bragging, Earl, far from
it. I'm actually sad that it is this easy and people are actually wasting
energy trying to divorce themsevles from reality.
I don't care a whit about protecting other people from bad investments.
I care quite a lot about people who don't pay the consequences of
their stupidity. About the only time you are at all interesting, Earl, is
when you are waxing indignant. I'm glad I could light your fire.

George S. Cole
(Tue Jul 01 1997 23:21)
down for the count
Escher: Isn't it interesting that we are hearing these arguments that gold is down for the count at the same time that Wall Street is shouting "new era of permanently booming stock prices" louder and louder with each passing day. Just like in 1929

If this new era talk is correct for stocks, it probably also is correct for gold. But if this idea of a permanent bull market for stocks is a lot of bunk, then so is the idea that gold is down for the count.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 23:22)
Eldorado re your:21:22
I agree with your statement on what to look for.The technical position
of gold seems quite strong as measured by speculator shorts and the
consences numbers in addition to which a highly indentifiable trend
line is in place from the high at 416 and also the break to the downside
is anemic and not being confirmed by the XAU.It'll go...

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jul 01 1997 23:27)
more on metal
Actually, if one looks at the longterm price charts, it is fairly consistent that the metals begin to rise prior to the stock market peaking. Perhaps those who expect a stock market crash to liven up the metals may be correct, but history indicates that the precious coming up from the floor usually precedes a stox top. The metals also tend to peak with stox, or continue to rise in some rare cases if the stox decline severely enuf. But in general, it appears that the shiny stuff shoots its wad just prior to, or as the market tops, and a liftoff in metals is a sign that a stock top is in the offing. '82/83 was somewhat of an exception, as stox continued strong for nearly 4 years. Classical theory has the metal topping after stox turn down, but the more I look at my handy Handy & Harmon NY cash silver chart going back to 1920, the more it seems clear that the precious jump just prior to a stock market peak. Anyone see the same thing?

(Tue Jul 01 1997 23:34)

D.A. - You seem really eager to make this bet,
yet one bad ( or good ) day either way and one of us could lose
the battle while the outcome of the war is still very much undecided.
I have said $325 ( $326 now because of all the resentment ) but not
how it would get there. I wouldn't be surprised if we have another
suckers rally again before $326 is reached. What I'm saying is,
I have the ultimate faith in $326, but I don't have the ultimate faith
that gold won't go up to $350 or higher again before $326. How about
we say gold goes to $326 sometime in the next three months?
If it doesn't, I lose the bet and you win a Maple. If Bart agrees to
be the intermediary, we could each deposit a Maple with him.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 23:37)
tony: I think it's time you acknowledged that I've been right all along, and that you've been wrong. You needn't point out the perspicacity of your sneering visage repetitively, we've all lost enough money by now. It's not funny being impoverished by your lousy calls. Tony, Tony, Tony , you think that wit, intelligence, and free speech, and the right to have an opinion like everyone else makes it alright for you to live and breathe here. But I say to you that unless you can pick the winner of every ball game, and give me the correct score, for sixty three nights in a row as I have done for the last seven nights, then please keep your mouth shut and...huh? this is not the baseball betting chat line? Sorry.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 23:45)
George S Cole: where did you hear about the "a permanent bull market for stocks"? I haven't seen this crazy notion anywhere yet.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 23:55)
@the scene
Rhyme -- It'll go... It'll go up even if it goes down first! If tonights numbers are a prelude for tomorrow, that's exactly what it'll do; go down first. Everybody remember, the least it can go down to is zero! ( pardon a 'HAR' here! ) There is no 'most' that it can go to!

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Tue Jul 01 1997 23:59)
TO JOHN N.: Guest of honor ? It would be a privilege. But I would suggest that you arrange for gold to hit the $450 mark before November. Montreal is a great city and everything, but you dont want to be visiting here in the winter.

On the other hand when considering the greenhouse effect and general global warming trends, maybe Montreal will be the perfect place for a mid-January outdoor party by the time gold hits $450.

(Tue Jul 01 1997 23:59)
!!! Perspicacity !!!
Gecko 23 - Bravo. Are you the last Gecko??