Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 00:07)
Bart: If gold is at $450, who cares about the weather!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 00:20)
Greetings: Well, we are another day closer to gold's upturn.
My vision was no joke. Also, by 12/31/97 we will see 4800
on the DJIA. That is an intuitive guesstimate. No waves,
rhino triangles, candle sticks, convergence/divergence,
momentum, relative strenght, envelope channels, sum of the
squares, linear regressions, stochastics ( can one get shots for
that )

Anyone that uses charts enough gets an intuitive feel in
order to trade successfully. At least I think so. I'm
sleepy, goodnite all. ( |:-}}

(Wed Jul 02 1997 00:39)
Bernatz ma fren. Est-ce que tu repete mon cher mot de la derniere annee - 1996? La mot: RELAX!
Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 14:08
Bernatz de ventadorm ( high_peak@les pyrannees ) :
For Monsiour le Hepcat
Ma fren - you seem to have zee tension. Tension ees a killair.
Ah suggest you switch to zee decaf cafe.

Lurker 777
(Wed Jul 02 1997 00:48)
friendly wager
John, If I remember correctly from our previous discussion you eluded that you might give more to charity in a year than I earn. I feel you are more than able to make the following bet. Since gold has been nose diving the past 18 months and you like three months here is a bet that you surly don't want to miss. On October 1st, 1997 I will pay you 100 times the difference gold is below $333.80 ( today's close ) or you will pay me 100 times the difference above that amount. We will both leave with Bart a Cashier check in the amount of $10,000.00 as a deposit. Any time our deposit is exceeded we will deposit additional funds weekly to cover the shortage. If funds are not deposited within one week of the shortage the loser forfeits his deposit and the contest is over.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 00:53)
Not 1929 Now
George S. Cole - This is 1997. We are in a "new era" of global economics. Never before in human history has there been anything remotely similar to the worldwide economy of today. Information can travel to any spot on earth in the blink of an eye. The world yearns for US technology. No matter how much you reference 1929, any comparisons are invalid.

I guess I have used the era phrase because I lack the words to describe what we are witnessing today. This rise in equities is unprecedented. 2 billion people in China, eastern Europe and Russia, rich beyond compare in natural resources, can indeed give us the only thing we need to continue this meteoric rise, markets, markets, markets.

Remember, I sell metals for a living, wishing only for volatility to give my clients opportunity for profits. I have zero vested interest in convincing anyone that the crisis many see as inevitable, is increasingly unlikely. A strong equities market robs investment dollars that would otherwise be in precious metals. One would think that, my game being metals, I would profit more if people would believe the house of cards will fall with the next gust, but I dont believe it will.

I used to think this world would be unrecognizable by the turn of the century, war, famine, abject poverty, would abound, but one cannot ignore what is in front of ones eyes: Prosperity and the ever increasing likelihood of more to come.

I say to all, buy your gold, silver, and platinum. Protect yourself should I be proven naive and shortsighted, I have done, and will do the same. But dont let fear blind you to the incredible opportunities for profit that are staring us all is the face. Make your $, then use it to buy more gold if you must.

The shrill cries of the fear mongers should be taken for what they are; a stubborn belief system of those who will call for the end until it happens, even if it takes fifty years. When all finally does fall, they will cry unto the masses that their words were indeed prophetic. They imagine that people, will finally recognize them as great seers and benevolent protectors. The throng will prostrate themselves in righteous revelation, offer gifts of frankincense and myrrh, and bid your attentions to their nubile daughters whilst their reverent fathers with silver beards plan monuments to these prophets of doom. Meanwhile the rest of us will be living quite comfortably, thank you.

Mike and George, hows that for some more "new era". Let me know if you want some more, its kinda fun.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 01:01)
One for all
PS - Please dont revoke my Kitco pass for espousing these views. Dont you think there should be at least one voice of dissension? Sameness of opinions cause stagnation. Besides I kind of like some of the people here. The rest I can tolerate as, Im sure, they tolerate me.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 01:08)

LSevencubed and everyone else - Hey, I appreciate y'alls desire here
to make money, but c'mon. One year ago when I said $325 y'all would
have drank poison before admitting it was even remotely possible.
Now that we are on its doorstep you act like $335 is a fact of life and you
want to bet me on whether it will go lower. We're at a four year low here, folks,
and I'm not a total idiot. I don't have a problem depositing $10,000, Lurker777,
but where is your risk? How many days in the last four years has gold been
below $335? How many days has it been above $335? Let's make it a realistic bet, like above or below $350 on October 1. And let's give the winnings to
the other person's favorite charity, so we're helping people that can actually
use the money.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 01:14)

You guys are always promising stuff to happen that doesn't. When I was a boy growing up, my Dad always promised me stuff and it never happened. So that's why I'm a med student. I'm gonna make alot of money and won't have to rely on people promising me stuff. Now do you people understand? It really pisses me off for people to make false claims. I'm reeeeaaalllyyy POed!!!!!!

Besides I lost alot of money in this stuff and I don't like people to be right. It makes me feel inferior. I am the one who is ALWAYS RIGHT!!

Do you guys understand now???

Charles Martin
(Wed Jul 02 1997 01:15)
Dear fellow investor -----ADVERTISING MESSAGE DELETED----
(Wed Jul 02 1997 01:24)
in the sky
Bernatz de ventadorm - You are a shining star in the midnight morass.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 01:25)
@the scene
Let's see now. A billion Chinese earning the equivalent of a couple hundred bucks a year ( makes for a 'huge' market! ) . The US government continuing to run up debt to the tune of a couple hundred billion bucks a year, more or less. I wonder what comes first; Massive Chinese prosperity or a big bill coming due? Not that we particularly produce much here anymore to export, except debt, hamburgers and machine tools to make them more and more independent of our production. Marvelous! Pardon me if I don't yet see the light! In best regards...

john D.A.
(Wed Jul 02 1997 01:35)
Charles Martin ( ) :

You say this exciting new gold discovery in Europe has high grades. You imply this is a good investment.

This is meaningless!!!

Please tell me WHEN TO BUY, HOW MUCH TO BUY and WHEN TO SELL. Otherwise, I will become extremely pissed off with you.

Besides, I have much better ideas and know more than you!

I'm waiting!!!

Bad Bear
(Wed Jul 02 1997 01:35)
Some Url's
BEARY CONTRAR'S Market Review at

MVision Indices Charts at

(Wed Jul 02 1997 01:37)
Personal afFront
Hey Front - Without getting into the merits or details of your differences with others, I do agree that many here are too thin skinned. I too have ruffled a few feathers but have tried to control my own pomposity ( sometimes with limited success ) and attempted some humor ( sometimes feebly ) . The best response is to take the higher road whenever possible, but dont back down. No opinion here reigns supreme. Some just take themselves way to seriously. Your posts are an integral part of this group and your departure would bring diminishment. Keep your voice among the rest and let the rest writhe in discomfort if they must.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 01:41)
@Gold bad, Drugs Good!
john ( ) - A med student, aka Future Drug Pusher.

Steve (Perth - Western Australia)
(Wed Jul 02 1997 01:44)
SHARE COMPARISONS: Just spent the last 2 days comparing some well known Australian Industrial Stocks versus some bigger Institutional type Gold Stocks. ( From May 1996-May 1997 ) Check these returns out...

National Australia Bank 71% ( UP )
Foodlands ( Retail Food ) 98%
Wesfarmers ( Agribusiness ) 70%
Franked Income Fund
( sub fund of Wesfarmers ) 82%

Compare those to these bigger Gold Stocks

Goldfields -29% ( DOWN )
Great Central Mines*
( Joseph Gutnick ) -36%
Normandy ( Oppenheimers mob ) -25%
Resolute Samantha -18% ( up 13% for 1 mnth of May )
Sons of Gwalia -40%
Delta Gold -36%
Acacia Resources* -43%
Newcrest* -39% ( down -14% for 1 mnth of May )

* denotes "be careful" of these stocks!!

Me thinks this divergence in returns is standing out like the proberbial Dog's Balls. Q. WHERE is the safety for your funds in the stocks LISTED above??

(Wed Jul 02 1997 01:48)
Mike Sheller, you said Gold was going to shoot its wad. Well look likes
like Charles Martian just shot his. Excuse me while I clean up arond here.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 02:05)
Japan may well set the example for all world markets?In Japan, local press agency Jiji said 2 more securities firms have been linked to the corporate racketeer payoff scandal. The press report said corporate racketeer Ryuichi Koike has told prosecutors that Nikko Securities and Daiwa Securities both conducted illegal stock-deals for him. Koike is a key figure in the payoff scandal, involving Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank and Nomura Securities. The president of Nikko Securities has denied any knowledge of illegal payments. Jiji reports that Japan's securities watchdog has launched a full-scale investigation into the two brokerages.Xau,Dow anyone?

(Wed Jul 02 1997 02:05)
Edo, Sweetie
Eldo - I hear in the press all the time about some emerging third world nation with workers earning a few bucks a day. Doesnt anyone see the deception here? The $ they earn, while equating to just a few US dollars, feeds and houses entire families. Are we to believe that all the workers are starving? Sorry, dead workers are bad for business. I find it interesting that you focused on the wages and not on the vast, untapped natural resources. I find your arguments usually intelligent, if sometimes redundant, but this latest is a surprise. What does the US produce? The technology the runs the earth. It leaves one breathless to think of the amazing strides forward in the last few years. Need an example? Youre looking at it as you read these words. If better, more educated, or more productive workers can be found anywhere else on earth, where?

Our debt is severe and , lacking curbs on spending, will bring a day of reckoning. Has anyone read Senate Bill 307? This bill calls for the creation of a two tiered US currency, domestic bills and foreign bills. Ill cover this in greater detail later should anyone have an interest, it could get rather involved and I dont have the time or inclination this evening. I still have to respond to the trade deficit issues from a few days ago.

Meanwhile, Eldo, baby, does this mean we are on speaking terms again? Perhaps we can be an example of two, who seem to get on each others nerves, can still progress the discourse.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 02:07)
No comercials, please.
Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 01:15
Charles Martin ( ) :

Is it possible to flame this clown?????

(Wed Jul 02 1997 02:11)
Its OK, Let it out....
John @ 01:14 - Hep Cat - I do understand now, but the hairballs do tend to distract when they squish between the toes.

Steve (Perth)
(Wed Jul 02 1997 02:20)
If Mexico was wiped out, what would happen to NAFTA???
After watching a very recent TV show on volcanos in the Philippines & Mt. St. Helens in USA, I find this latest eruption/clouds interesting. Imagine if the thing really blew like Mt. St. Helens. Where do 12 million people go??? If they can get out in time!!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 02:22)

RJ: Your ( 20:53 ) sounds like the introduction of a SAIPAN newsletter flyer, get them in the mail every six months.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 02:31)
Great Punchline
Earl re: Use my name again, in any of your post's, and I'll hound you for the useless skunk that you truly are. Eh amigo?

I was shocked and surprised, The Earl can get down in the mud with the rest of us! Welcome Amigo!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 02:41)
Jack-san @ 02:22 - don't read newsletters, don't have the time and I form my own opinions. Hai.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 02:47)

RJ: Your ( 00:53 ) sounds like the introduction of a SAIPAN
newsletter flyer, get them in the mail every six months. They have great confidence in the future direction of the globe and certain selections ( companies ) . I say Rawanda, Bosnia and Somalia just to be short - as another possible direction.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 02:49)

RJ: Your ( 00:53 ) sounds like the introduction of a SAIPAN
newsletter flyer, get them in the mail every six months. They
have great confidence in the future direction of the globe and
certain selections ( companies ) . I say Rwanda, Bosnia and
Somalia just to be short - as another possible direction.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 03:08)
@Happy Times
To All- Am getting married, next week, so don't have a lot of time for reading the daily posts I enjoy so much, but did want to tell y'all,
that my charts are saying up, from here, and for the next month or two,the move may be a strong one.
My charts are mostly gold stocks, but gold, silver and especially platinum look like they're ready too.

So you see these are happy times, and I wanted to share them with all.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 03:11)
you still there semi-demi?
Had question regarding PL...


(Wed Jul 02 1997 03:15)
Congratulations. May you both love each other till, well... as the minister says 'till death do you part.

I am also considering the SERIOUS matter of marriage proposal, Oh God! Here come that cold sweat again...



(Wed Jul 02 1997 03:19)
@the scene
RJ -- Their few dollars may feed and house them in their system, but what do you suppose those same families will be buying from US? What can they afford? We have the same problem with Mexico. The people can not afford to buy our goods. Try selling a car or a computer. They simply do not have the wage base to do it! Will they have? Perhaps, if the governments allow them to have, in time. A long time. You can not put together a consumer base overnight. It may take decades. Resources? Without utilization, so what. Without commensurate pay/wages, so what. I still like old Henry Ford. Paraphrased, he said, I pay my workers such that they can afford to purchase my automobiles. All businesses should hold that viewpoint first and formost. Do you see that happening in Mexico? Puerto Rico? Any 'third world' country? Basically, I don't think so!

Our technology may run the earth, but it comes at a high price for either us, or the poorer governments of the world ( mostly through bank loans guaranteed by us ) as somekind of infra-structure is put into place. Another burden typically upon our backs. Ah, what the hell. Who else even has a back! Also, our technology means s__t for us when it is stolen and marketed.

The people of this country certainly are the most productive people on the planet. Maybe also the most inventive. The most educated might be disputable. Most people currently alive in the world will never have the chance or opportunity to speak across the WWW. Most people on the planet will not ever see it, much less afford it, or ever have anything close to what we have in this country. They are still in survival mode.

I've mentioned before about that particular Senate Bill. Think about it. A two-tiered currency. And this is supposed to rectify anything? That, I would certainly require some explanation on! The Feds are running scared!

And RJ, yes, we can be on speaking terms. I believe that is what we are currently doing. Somewhere along the line though, you'll have to tell me what kind of publications you read! Purhaps we'll get a damn fine discussion going here! There are certainly viewpoints that need sharing!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 03:28)
REIFY: CONGRATULATIONS...may you and your bride see a golden anniversary ( in 50 years ) !...with much happiness on the journey.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 03:28)
@the market
EBN gold down 1.80! Now we're talkin'! Should have happened Monday!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 03:32)
Eldo - Exports to Mexico are up 30% ++ since NAFTA. So much for the poor Meheecaans......

(Wed Jul 02 1997 03:33)
FRONT: please reconsider and return to our group...we would all be a poorer bunch without you...I ( for one ) enjoyed your posts.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 03:34)
Omega man...again. I seem to always miss prime-time kitco
But with all of the trash talk 2-nite I guess it's not so bad. So now I can ramble by myself. And I will use bad grammar/speling, run-on sentences, etc. I'm feeling frisky and the cats have spit up all the balls. Does anyone remember the Omega Man? Ole Chuck is good.

Anyway. THICK skin/THIN skin. Some have it some don't. To all at this group...GET SOME THICK SKIN. Most of the jobs I have ever had have been in sales. During all that time I have built a heavy layer of skin and it certainly helps the water to roll off my back. Wow! I must be an Omega Gecko...Hmmmmmmm.

You are all right and alright. So shut-up already!

away...not so soon


(Wed Jul 02 1997 03:34)

(Wed Jul 02 1997 03:38)
@the wedding
Reify -- CONGRATULATIONS! I'm sure you'll find marriage to be a fine and wonderful addition to your life. May peace and a lot of health and wealth pay a very long visit with you!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 03:39)
ah good! He is still here!
I was away all day and before I left PL was making a NICE move. As I return 2-nite I notice it was all but given back. Any news from the RUSSKIES? Are we seeing a type of reversal. Perhaps it is a good time to add to the position...

I am out of my realm in PL. Perhaps I should stick to Grains and hogs.


(Wed Jul 02 1997 03:42)
yes, I am
ALL:...... Today, I'm going to drag my bruised and bleeding account down to my brokers and BUY...yes, I am, don't try to talk me out of it... ( but, why does he put his head down and cry when I come in? )

(Wed Jul 02 1997 03:47)
@the system
RJ -- A lot of machine tools. Also car parts that come back at us. Tell me what the people there are buying! Or perhaps it doesn't matter if they don't earn more than survival wages and can not buy anything.

Strad Master
(Wed Jul 02 1997 03:50)
REIFY: CONGRATULATIONS!!! May the markets give you a BIG wedding present! I went to a wedding on Sunday and just got to thinking how nice it would be to marry my wife again - now ten years later. Big ceremony, homeymoon, the works! ( EB - that ought to be encouraging to you! No need for cold sweat. Go for it! ) Maybe if silver ever goes anywhere, we'll do it. Anyway, congratulations again. Kitco needed some GOOD news today!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 04:00)
EB @ Lots-O-Fun today
Platinum is such a thin market, this week even more so, that the moves you saw today were the result of just a few trades. The Russians missed another shipping date, surprise!!!! Spot PL was up $9 all day when, 10 minutes to the close, it dropped $4 in a tick. With Hong Kong out, and the big US traders gone this week, you too can move the platinum market if you choose. A 5000 oz trade will bump it $15. No, they don't take American Express.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 04:02)

(Wed Jul 02 1997 04:07)
What, indeed!
Proctor & Gamble announced last week that sales south-o-the border have almost tripled. Things like soap, toothpaste, etc. Consumer exports to Mexico are at all time highs. This means they have never been higher. Number one, numero uno, primo, whahid, eins, une, blahblahblah. What more do you want?

(Wed Jul 02 1997 04:09)
Kuston 20:00...(like your accent).
Thank-you for your post. It was good commentary and I agree with your take.

As for my "commercials". I am a futures trader. I use many tools trying to "gain advantage" in the markets. I am a technical trader above all while while absorbing the fundamentals. One of the ways I find success is to use HISTORY to my advantage. I have found the historical perspective of Jake B. to be quite helpful AND successful ( before he was making infomercials ) . I pass some of these numbers along merely to Ponder ( as I have said before ) . They are not tips or recommendations. DO YOUR HOMEWORK ( as I'm sure you do ) . I really did like your post. Thanks again.



MY Bible: The New Option Secret. David L. Caplan
MY software: OPTIONVUE IV...oh my!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 04:17)
Thanks semi-demi. Those black-market-wanna-be-capitalist-thieving-gangster-thug-RUSSKIES will NOT!!!! deliver.

I wonder what I should do with that 5000oz CZAR PL in my garage. I trade all my old LEVI'S for it...



(Wed Jul 02 1997 04:17)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Thirty Market days. Chart is in percent.

Fourth of July Rally in Progress?

Who Cares?
(Wed Jul 02 1997 04:56)

You guys sound so down. Look. I moved a large portion of my personal savings into gold/silver/gems in 1994. Have I made money?


But I sleep well at night. I think it's pretty clear that the U.S.
banking system was teetering on the edge of collapse through 92-93.

I would *love* to see gold break down past $325. I'd really like to
see it happen towards Christmas, when I'll have some more money to
invest. I'd *really* like to get some more eagles at $320 / oz. : )

The way I see it, currencies in general are in serious trouble. And,
if Bad Things happen, the rise in gold will be enough to pay off my
house. Like, that is *NOT* a bad thing for me. That means I can
afford to work part-time, for half wages, etc.

If Bad Things DON'T happen, well, then, I'm doing okay. I'm employed,
I'm making cash, I'm not shouting out "Sieg Heils", right? I'm still
getting my house paid down, and I'd really prefer to NOT get involved
in riots or revolution yet. So I'm still a winner.

Cheer up. The odds are damn good that blue skies won't last much

(Wed Jul 02 1997 05:21)
RJ: Have you really thought about your post of 00:53? The part that
goes _"new era" of global economics. Never before in human history has
there been anything remotely similar to the worldwide economy of today.
Information can travel to any spot on earth in the blink of an eye. The
world yearns for US technology. No matter how much you reference 1929,
any comparisons are invalid._

I build this technology, I know it and think about the ramifications of
it all the time. Alot like what I think the first nuclear sciencetists
must of thought. One thing I'm sure of is that this global communications
technology will have as big an impact on the world as the nuclear technology
did. I don't think many people have really thought about that - it will
change everyone's life in the next 10 years. One of my unresolved
questions is what will the 80% of the US population that is not educated
do? What skills do they have that could justify 10x or 20x or 100x the
wage of someone who doesn't live here?

Before anyone answers, think about what I've already done: I've seen
a photocopier developed that the blond in the office could run, Medical
scanners, we build them so easy that a peasant from Mexico City could
operate it. I was there when we built the control systems for an oil
platform or a refinery that high school ( or should I say baby sitting
school ) drop outs could run. A global phone system where a native
sitting on Bre-X's claims could of called me and tell me there is no
gold! - done that to.

The people in my world are looking at a future beyond what you describe
but what your not saying is that we account for 1% or less of the
population. Most of this technology is being developed by a very small
number of people. Are the rest going to ride us? I think not - I'm
building this technology for a reason, it's not to be tied down with the
dead weight around here.

I really hope I'm wrong but I'm betting I'm not. I hope everyone out
there really thinks about this - it will effect you and everyone you
love. RJ is right the "new era" is coming - I just disagree with what
the era will bring. A booming stock market? I don't see where the
demand will come from.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 05:29)
RJ: Re your 00:53 post. You are right, we are in a "New Error World". The Dow is at a 102 year high, 90% of the gain since the 1987 crash. Gold is at a 17 year low, 31 years if you adjust for inflation. If the way to make money is still to buy low, sell high, and you are not advising your clients to do just, that they will indeed enter the "New Error World".

But my own experience has been when I tell my friends this they think I am crazy. Otherwise intelligent people really think it is a "New Era". High tech etc. The high tech is fine, it is the DEBT that is the problem. Not just the goverment debt, but your neighbors and every business in town. They actually believe that you MUST be in debt to get the tax deduction etc. That is wrong, and gold investors know it is wrong. History has proven it wrong over and over again. It always ends badly and takes innocent people with it as its victims. Did you read page 8 of the Gold Mining Report by Steven Jon Kaplan? He says that the most frequently asked question by new mutual fund purchasers is: "Can I buy additional shares with my credit card?" If you need a sign of the top, that has to be it.

George S. Cole
(Wed Jul 02 1997 05:49)
spike down
August gold down $2.10. With the open interest up hugely the past few weeks, price stability was out of the question. Eldorado's spike down is here. $320s here we come.

Will the gold stocks be able to hold today? Doubtful, but very bullish if it happens.

RJ: We are, of course, in a new era technologically and economically. But a new era of permanently inflated stock valuations? Very unlikely.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 06:20)
Is there anyone here who thinks the Fed just might raise rates today? The financial press is 100% certain they will not. I am not so sure. The Hashimoto thing may produce a different result than the markets expect. Of course it will not be explained that way but I think there is a fair chance. I saw somewhere last week that the banks had urged an increase.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Jul 02 1997 06:34)
RJ: Well, my game is up! You got me. Hey, man, being a POD ( prophet of Doom ) is a tough, dirty job, but someone's gotta do it. I hitched up in my younger days when I found out it was de rigeur for the prophets to get stoned. Now it's too late to undo THAT misunderstanding. Et too RJ? And no, tho I may tackle the heavy side of the big picture ( as a public service, of course ) I do not writhe in discomfort. Though I hope you find my writhing entertaining and at least legible. And by the way - stop apologizing so much for YOUR views, etc, - next to Bernatz, I look forward to your posts the most. No, we all shouldn't have to agree, nor would that be good. That would be dull. Seriously -Who will be right or wrong and when is not so important as speculative souls sharing some civilized, yet yeasty conversation. I have enormous respect for most of the minds at Kitco, and find it always a joy to have the privilige of drinking it in, and even occasionally befouling the water with my own madness. Now can I hear the part about the nubile daughters again...????

No more clouds
(Wed Jul 02 1997 07:09)
south of the equator
Mega el Nino has engulfed us. Who needs war. This is the sort of action thats going to turn markets on their heads. Not a bad omen for a run-up in silver.

Bob A
(Wed Jul 02 1997 07:19)
With todays spike down it will be interesting to see which gold stks get dumped. Buylow Sell high, time to seperate the men from the boys.I'm going to buy if I see a good opportunity.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 07:21)
@waking up
Spot gold down 2.55 ( EBN ) Bart's 24-hour gold graph is showing decided tilt downward ( again ) . When do we start seeing news of mine closures? North American mines with low costs of production should be in the driver's seat as the high cost mines drop out.

WW: It's getting pretty grim when you can't start a food fight over politics here. Perhaps we need a course on CPR for swooning goldbugs. : )
My only regret is that I bought on the way down and ran out of money before the bottom was reached. I don't need a cap gains tax break as much as I need tuition to RJ's new era re-education camp. Gotta run catch a shifting paradigm....

(Wed Jul 02 1997 07:36)
MIKE SHELLER: I can't resist a good pun. Did the Prophets get stoned or "stoned" or both? Certainly my previous gold profits got stoned in the biblical sense.

George S. Cole
(Wed Jul 02 1997 07:44)
Donald: If the FOMC does raise rates toda ywhen almost nobody expects them to do so, the market could easily drop 200 points. The market might go down somewhat even if the the FOMC stands pat as expected. Selling on the news you know.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 07:45)
Yes, George there is a climax
Yep, it looks for the world like George S. Cole's climax has arrived ( selling climax that is ) . I didn't think it would arrive but gold has done it to us in an ugly way, biting off both our ears as well as our noses in the process.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 07:47)
Bank of Thailand ties Bhat to Dollar.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 07:51)
Just Lurking
Whatever you do, please don't tell my mother I'm a gold bug.
She still thinks I'm a piano player in a whore house.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 07:55)
@ DFW Airport
Lurker: If Alan and the boys do not raise interest rates today,
you may be going back to your old job.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 07:56)
Currency troubles?

Palladium news;

Panic selling in gold?;

(Wed Jul 02 1997 08:03)
Big Trader = Bad Timer

Mike Sheller
(Wed Jul 02 1997 08:07)
@the chartz
The Long Bond looks like it has corrected and turned around. It appears we might see another run at 113. If it gets thru convincingly, we are out of the Rhino triangle and a significant decline in rates is ahead over the next couple of months. This would auger nice support for stox. Since the precious are still wallowing in the gutter, it would seem that the top in the stockmarket is still a way off ( as awesome as that sounds ) . Historically, the metals jump just before a stockmarket top. A rally in gold and silver would be telling us that the market peak was up ahead, but not necessarily immediately here yet. A rally in bonds ( breakout above 113/114 ) AND a rally in gold & silver, would indicate more upside in stocks for a while. Watch the bond with interest.

George s. Cole
(Wed Jul 02 1997 08:09)
ray of light?
JSE Gold Index down just modestly today despite latest smash in bullion. Perhaps the bad news ( or most of it, anyway ) has been discounted?

(Wed Jul 02 1997 08:28)
George S. Cole -- I'm begining to think that only the 'strong hands' or us fools are left in the game. It looks like more tremors in the ForEx markets overnight. Thai baht goes floating after a two percent interest rate increase. It seems to have upset the Dollar, Yen, and most other currecies last night. Do you think that this is where the gold bull will start? If Thailand or the Phillippines can upset the Dollar, what does this say about global equities markets. Also, it seems that the FTSE 100 went ballistic yesterday, forget about parabolic!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 08:42)
I keep on hearing 'dis-inflation' in the business reports on the radio. The business reporters keep on crowing about falling prices for raw materials and lower costs. Therefore, they conclude, lower interest rates are ahead. This means higher stock prices, according to them, but my question is when does 'dis-inflation' turn in to deflation along with falling earnings? Is this good for stocks? I don't think so. If the reporters are correct, then I must conclude that Puetz is closer to the 'truth' in this matter. If so, gold will fall due to deflation. The stock market will go in to a tail spin. I find it hard to believe that something would not be done to give the appearance otherwise. It would be simple matter to halt the falling gold price. A confussing picture here. I do not believe that the fools in charge would cut off their nose to spite their face. I guess we shall see. Cheering deflation as cause for rising stock prices? Bizarre at best. What would I use to buy stocks with if I have no income????

(Wed Jul 02 1997 08:47)
Interesting comments;

Dr. Kevorkian
(Wed Jul 02 1997 08:57)
Johnny Hep man... I have something that'll cure that nasty bug of yours:

A dose of cyanide. Since you're only a med STUDENT and the REAL doctors won't let you play with REAL chemicals, maybe the gunrunner nuts will provide you with a large caliber handgun to do the job. If not, I'm sure we could find a few willing trigger men here. Any volunteers?

(Wed Jul 02 1997 09:05)
Gold Stock Selections
Bob-A. I think your post of 07:19 was insightful regarding current market action. Am I correct to assume you would buy the strong gold stocks today, not the ones getting dumped? Do you have any predictions at to which might get dumped today?

(Wed Jul 02 1997 09:26)
Market Maven report rings with logic & clarity. We have a Goldilocks Economy coexisting with a Vampire Financial State. Steve Puetz Letter:

George s. Cole
(Wed Jul 02 1997 09:27)
disinflation and deflation
Panda: The way I see it nothing less than the end of the ongoing global financial bull ( or at least some smart and powerful people concluding that the end is near ) will be required to launch a new bull market in gold. We can still have decent rallies under the current paradigm, perhaps even back to $350 if the CBs decide they do not want to see large scale mine closures. But that is the most we can hope for until a new paradigm emerges.

A few points re: disinflation or deflation

Raw material costs account for just a modest portion of total business costs. Labor costs far more important. These are under control right now, but they are going up. So disinflation a better description of what is going on now than deflation. Markets are very confident the Fed will be able to easily deal with true deflation if it ever develops. Of course, that confidence may be misplaced.

Important to remember that the huge multinationals leading the bull charge are much less sensitive to U.S. economic conditions that smaller domestic-oriented firms. If things get tough in the U.S., they may be getting better elsewhere. The market is implicit assuming that these firms will always be able to do well unless the entire global economy tanks.

So lower interest are not seen as signalling potential earnings problems for these firms, but serve as an excuse to further hype p/e ratios.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 09:36)
RJ......could you comment more on the Senate proposal for a two-tier currency? Is there a handy URL we can access to read the details?? Thanks!! :- ) )

(Wed Jul 02 1997 09:43)
Scotty -- I you check back aways. I've posted the bill for S.307 and some sites for more info on it. This bill was proposed, ostensibly, because of drug money. I don't have the info here, maybe later tonight I can post it. A good site to us is the Thomas register for gov. Check it out on a search engine like or your favorite search engine. I believe the URL ends in .gov. You'll have to do some digging. Search for S.307 in 1995? Good luck

Bob A
(Wed Jul 02 1997 09:48)
to Dax
Ilike ABX,and PDG. In the more spec area I like BGO and believe it or not RYO. Mt favorite is a plat mine SWC. Mutual funds are also a way to go. Inow own ECO and SWC, in my retirement plan I can own Fid. funds and have some FSAGX

(Wed Jul 02 1997 09:49)
Charlie's Dow won the marathon; now what? (July 1, 1997 REPORT)
The inimitable Gene Inger sees interesting plateau where permabulls are pressed to find value, while permabears are locked in short cells. NOW ITS TIME FOR CAUTION! INGER LETTER FORECAST:

(Wed Jul 02 1997 09:50)
Scotty -- The URL should have benn

(Wed Jul 02 1997 10:03)
Thomas URL;

for S.307 stuff
Go to this URL; Click on 104 at the top of the page, under bill number enter S.307, click on search.

RE: Arch Crawford
(Wed Jul 02 1997 10:18)
Arch Crawford can see the stars ... He walked into a wall! : )

(Wed Jul 02 1997 10:19)
to Dr. Kevorkian
As a resident gunrunning nut, I have an H&K USP equipped
with .45 caliber hydro-shok hollowpoints. Will that do the

(Wed Jul 02 1997 10:20)
Fraud anyone;

(Wed Jul 02 1997 10:33)
Joke for the morn
I'm swamped this morning so I am going to leave it to all of you to keep the metals shiny and our depressions on hold. Oh, where is some money when I really need it. With that here are some parting thought on wisdom and crashing in New Jersey.

One night, a Delta twin-engine puddle jumper was flying somewhere
above New Jersey. There were five people on board: the pilot, Michael
Jordan, Bill Gates, the Dali Lama, and a hippie. Suddenly, an illegal
oxygen generator exploded loudly in the luggage compartment, and the
passenger cabin began to fill with smoke. The cockpit door opened,
and the pilot burst into the compartment.

"Gentlemen," he began, "I have good news and bad news. The bad news
is that we're about to crash in New Jersey. The good news is that
there are four parachutes, and I have one of them!" With that, the
pilot threw open the door and jumped from the plane.

Michael Jordan was on his feet in a flash. "Gentlemen," he said, "I
am the world's greatest athlete. The world needs great athletes. I
think the world's greatest athlete should have a parachute!" With
these words, he grabbed one of the remaining parachutes, and hurtled
through the door and into the night.

Bill Gates rose and said, "Gentlemen, I am the world's smartest man.
The world needs smart men. I think the world's smartest man should
have a parachute, too." He grabbed one, and out he jumped.

The Dali Lama and the hippie looked at one another. Finally, the Dali
Lama spoke. "My son," he said, "I have lived a satisfying life and
have known the bliss of True Enlightenment. You have your life ahead
of you; you take a parachute, and I will go down with the plane."

The hippie smiled slowly and said, "Hey, don't worry, pop. The
world's smartest man just jumped out wearing my backpack.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 10:41)
Here's an interesting event to ponder, while we watch the Gold price plummet...
Friday, June 20, 1997  Page A9 1997 San Francisco Chronicle

Year 2000 Computer Bug Expected to Cost $1 Trillion
Grim report from Lloyd's of London

Jon Swartz, Chronicle Staff Writer

For the first time, insurers have put a price tag on the ``Year 2000'' computer problem -- and it's a

Lloyd's of London underwriters estimated yesterday that lawsuits arising from the dreaded
``millennium bug'' will top $1 trillion in the United States alone.

``When you consider that the total for litigation for all other liabilities including asbestos, tort and
pollution is $300 billion, you see the millennium issue is much more serious,'' said Jeff Jinnett, an
attorney with LeBoeuf, Lamb, Greene & MacRae in New York.

The high-tech problem stems from computer programming in the 1960s and 1970s that sought to
save memory by using only the last two numbers of a year when recording the date. When the year
2000 comes, though, computers could read the date as being in the year 1900, bringing havoc to
thousands of business operations and government agencies.

Many older computers and software programs, unable to process two-digit dates correctly after
Dec. 31, 1999, could crash on Jan. 1, 2000, while many others will think the date is Jan. 1, 1900.

At a Lloyd's of London conference in London yesterday, underwriters said they based the $1
trillion figure on the flood of claims expected to ensue if data is corrupted.

They said companies that don't fix their code in time could be hit with lawsuits by business partners
and shareholders for monetary losses.

Government officials could face angry constituents and legal reprisals for botched paperwork.
Banks could be sued by customers and face stiff regulatory penalties. Firms that exchange data
electronically could sue one another over faulty data and losses. And technology consultants could
be sued for malpractice.

( Ironically, consultants have been warning employers for years about the scope of the problem,
which could affect every organization that uses mainframe computers to store information and
conduct business. )

``Someone has to be blamed,'' says Capers Jones, chairman of Software Productivity Research in
Burlington, Mass.

The so-called millennium problem is primarily relegated to software written for older mainframe
computers and does not affect most current software programs from Microsoft, Adobe and

Some companies are prepared for the situation. A Microsoft spokeswoman calls its software
``Year 2000 ready'' because it allows customers to enter and store four-digit dates on their
software programs. She said all of the software giant's programs also recognize that the year 2000
is a leap year.

Nonetheless, market researcher Gartner Group estimates it will cost $300 billion to $600 billion to
fix the problem worldwide. Even more chilling: One firm, Cap Gemini America, cautioned that only
one of every eight Fortune 500 companies surveyed has a plan in place for dealing with the

Industry sources have raised the specter of major computer network crashes and widespread
problems with software controlling everything from bank vaults to satellites to credit card

Some doomsday scenarios are overblown and laughable. New York Councilman Andrew Eristoff
went so far as to say that the ``massive technology problem could crash every computer in New
York City.''

An entire industry has sprouted to exterminate the bug. Computer consultant ranks are swelling.
High-tech heavyweights such as IBM, MCI Communications and Electronic Data Systems Corp.
are offering Year 2000 services. And software programmers versed in old-time computer
languages are back in demand.

If the problem isn't resolved, the repercussions on the economy could be far reaching.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 10:58)
on John Maynard Keynes
To a previous post...I don't know what famous quote you are looking for but I do like these. And more to the point, they could not be!

"The engine that drives Enterprise is not Thrift, but Profit".
more apropos to yesterdays group:
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assault of thoughts on the unthinking".
OR...just one more, but a good one:
"There is no harm in being sometimes wrong-especially if one is promptly found out"

...and those are just the one liners.



(Wed Jul 02 1997 11:00)
The Japanese brokers are short fifty ( 50 ) tons of Palladium! Must be a mistake. I wonder, on who's part?

(Wed Jul 02 1997 11:25)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Hepcat: Surrrrrrrrrrrrrre you're gonna make a lot of money in medicine ;- ) Can you say managed care? Better work on your bedside manner, too. The MBAs running medicine nowadays will demand that you provide service with a smile every minute of your 14-hour day, just as they do with their burger franchisees.

%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*% The law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich as well as the poor to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets and to steal bread.
--Anatole France ( 1844-1924 )

Never put off until tomorrow what you can do the day after tomorrow.
--Mark Twain ( 1835-1910 )

I loathe people who keep dogs. They are cowards who haven't got the guts to bite people themselves.
--August Strindberg

(Wed Jul 02 1997 11:31)
Doc Kevorkian: Excuse me?

General: Nice piece...Trade you a Maple Leaf for that one...

(Wed Jul 02 1997 11:48)
Interest rates @ Canada
American Economy "WHITE HOT" in May.
Fed can dampen "HEAT" of inflation.

Canadian economy is on "FIRE".
Bank of Canada raised rates in support of "WEAK" Canadian dollar.

The Bank of Canada would be very concerned "if" Fed moved on Wednesday.

Steve (Perth - Western Australia)
(Wed Jul 02 1997 12:35)
SHARE COMPARISONS: Just spent the last 2 days comparing some well known
Australian Industrial Stocks versus some bigger Institutional type Gold Stocks. ( From May 1996 to May 1997 ) Check these returns out...

National Australia Bank +71% ( UP )
Foodlands ( Retail Food ) +98%
Wesfarmers ( Agribusiness ) +70%
Franked Income Fund
( sub fund of Wesfarmers ) +82%

Compared to these bigger Gold Stocks.....

Goldfields -29% ( DOWN )
Great Central Mines*
( Joseph Gutnick ) -36%
Normandy ( Oppenheimers mob ) -25%
Resolute Samantha -18% ( up 13% for 1 mnth of May )
Sons of Gwalia -40%
Delta Gold -36%
Acacia Resources* -43%
Newcrest* -39% ( down -14% for 1 mnth of May )

* denotes "be careful" of these stocks!!

Me thinks this divergence in returns is standing out like the proberbial Dog's Balls.
Q. WHERE is the safety for your funds in the stocks "blue chip" industrial shares LISTED above?? ( ie. plenty of DOWNSIDE now )

(Wed Jul 02 1997 12:35)
That was a fantasticaly, dubious kick in the b*%lls. I am in an industry that is related in every way to the medical field. We saw, Long Ago, the writing on the wall and think we have "geared up for it". But we found that we DO have to work harder and smarter for less money. YOU ARE is not, and will NOT be in the future the cash COW that it used to be...Unless you are specialized, than the card game changes...or maybe if you are CEO of big HMO...or if you were Michael Jordan, or Michael Jackson, Michael Johnson, Michael Milken...
what was I talkin' about? Oh yeah! I was gonna say to Hepcap: Ppppppppbbbbbbbbbbbbbttttttttthhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!



(Wed Jul 02 1997 12:38)
goldie lags economy
Is this dis-inflation of gold prices or a deflation ? Yellow has lost too much weight lately and I would like to see Greenie put more flesh on to it.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 12:40)
Physics Made Simple
Everything I've ever posted here has been a joke. And since no one has complained, I hope you won't mind this, either. I remain ever hopeful that someone here will make the subject of gold equally simple, so that I will understand it, too.

The topic for today is quantum physics. Quantum physics was developed
in the 1930's, as a result of a bet between Albert Einstein and Niels
Bohr, to see who could come up with the most ridiculous theory and
still have it published. Most people agree that Bohr won hands down,
although Einstein did very well in the swimsuit competition.

One of the most important researchers in quantum physics is Werner
Heisenberg, a man with a wonderful sense of humor, who was always
cracking one-liners, like "delta-p times delta-x is less than h!" Ha!
ha! What a card! This is known as Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle,
which is closely related to Goedel's Incompleteness Theorem, which says
that some things are true, but you can't prove them, like when my wife
and I argue over whether it's her turn to take out the garbage or not.

What Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle says is that if something is
small enough, you can't say anything about it. Anyone with the I.Q. of
baking powder immediately understood that this means that if you look
at something so small that you can't even *see* it, like my dog, Oscar
Wilde's, brain, then you obviously can't tell, say, what color it is.

But some people didn't get the joke, and decided to investigate this
principle further. They would gather and sit around all day, drinking
beer and performing "Gedankesexperimenten," or "Thank God we're
theoretical physicists so we don't have to get our hands dirty with
particle accelerators and other heavy machinery." The most famous of
these is Schroedinger's Cat, where several physicists kidnap Erwin
Schroedinger's cat Fluffy and lock it up in a box, along with a
radioactive source such as Cheez Doodles. Then they walk around with
concerned expressions on their faces, commenting about how they don't
know what's going on inside the box. This goes on until the cleaning
lady discovers the box, opens it and tells the physicists whether the
cat is dead, or whether it has mutated into a man-eating flea the size
of Norway.

The point of this experiment is to show that uncertainty at the quantum
level can be detected in the macroscopic world and produce widespread
anxiety and paranoia. It also explains why paper clips just lie there
while you look at them, but as soon as you turn your back, they run
away, giggling wildly, and transform themselves into coat hangers.

Another famous researcher is Richard Feynman, who invented Feynman
diagrams, which are bunches of squiggly lines with greek letters next
to them. The way they were discovered was, one day, Hans Bethe came in
to Feynman's office to say that some of the guys down in particle
research were having a jam session down by the cyclotron, and would
Richard like to come over and bring his bongos? Feynman was out, at
the time, cracking a safe or something, so Bethe tried to leave him a
note. On the desk, he found one of Feynman's daughter's kindergarten
drawings. Bethe couldn't make head or tail of it, and figured that if
even he couldn't understand it, then it must be something Terribly
Clever, and promptly called it a Feynman diagram.

This was a major scientific breakthrough, and ever since, proud parents
have been hanging their children's Feynman diagrams on refrigerators
with little muon-shaped magnets, confident that their Little Darlings
are developing important scientific theories every day, because they
are, after all, Gifted Children.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 12:41)
Oh, and Ron...
Digging the quotes.*%*%


(Wed Jul 02 1997 12:53)
Steve*Perth: I don't get your point. It seems there was a lot of money to have been made in Industrial stocks and a lot to be lost in Gold Stocks. Are you saying that this is over or that the store of value idea supporting gold hoarding is suspect?

(Wed Jul 02 1997 13:02)
Ron - You must be butter... 'cause your on a roll!
The Pysics is a print! Hat off.

away |:---- )


(Wed Jul 02 1997 13:20)
EB: Thank You!
EB: " . . . on a roll" :- ) hee-hee

All: Let's keep it light. Let's keep it friendly. There is plenty of room for diverse opinion, here. In fact, I think it's healthy. I don't think anyone here is trying to deceive anyone else, or deliberately cause them to lose money -- well, I recognized one provocateur a few weeks back -- or rip them off. So let's not let it degenerate into ad hominem attacks on one another. Plenty of that over on usenet, now mostly USEless because of it.


(Wed Jul 02 1997 13:22)
and then I'll be quiet...I don't want to go over my five/day limit.
With all this talk of investing for inflation it reminds me of some very sound principles I have picked up from a book that I bought in the late 80's. My oldest copy is very dog-eared and beaten up now. I always refer to it, especially in times like these...

It is called ( and I'm sure that many of you have a copy ) : The ONLY investment guide you'll EVER need by Andrew Tobias

Buy a copy - it's a great $12.00 "investment". $17.00 for all you Maple Leafers. more time


quote from a quote from book:
October. This is one of the particularly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. Others are November, December, January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, and September.
Mark Twain

it is also funny what he says about commodities...

(Wed Jul 02 1997 13:33)
Official rates for the Euro;

Strad Master
(Wed Jul 02 1997 13:35)
Any surprises coming?
ANYONE: Has it ever happened that the Fed raised or lowered rates contrary to all expectations? I heard it said a week ago from some I consider reliable that the"word on the street" is that the
Fed won't rase rates this time. Of course, that is just couching the enventional thinking in a cloak of authority but still, I'm curious as to how many times - if ever - the Fed has really surprised everyone? Thanks for any historical perspective.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 13:39)
Well, I didn't say my forecasts were 100%. Last I measured
about 65 to 70%. Oh well, no more money to buy gold stocks
as I follow my own advice. Maybe I will shift in to South
African golds. I haven't done it yet. Good thing I listened
to the advice I got here which said to wait for a 10% upturn.
I forgot who it was, anyway thanks. I'm sure were are closer.
This time aint any different that any other. Change is the
constant. From the industrial age until now. Every bubble
is fueled by belief that this time is different. Balls don't
bounce anymore, gravity has been repealed, etc. |:- )

(Wed Jul 02 1997 13:52)
to the centre of the Earth...
$331.15 on EBN -
Down, and Down, and Down she goes ...
And where she stops, nobody knows ...

(Wed Jul 02 1997 14:06)
Did I wake it up, or something ?

(Wed Jul 02 1997 14:08)
OK, STEADY AS SHE BLOWS.....Silver should break now to about $4.30 as gold makes its way lower into next week......Keep your last powder dry !!!!!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 14:11)
@jerry favors
Very interesting stock market analysis from Jerry Favors:

(Wed Jul 02 1997 14:27)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Early estimates put the oil spill near Tokoyo Harbor today at 4 million gallons. It's probably much greater since we know how these esitmates tend to go. The Exxon Valdez spilled nearly 11 million gallons, cost Exxon $2 billion to clean up, and the company must pay $900 million each year for 10 years for ongoing cleanup efforts, PLUS pay 14,000 fishermen, businesses, etc., another $5 billion in damages. The spill decimated the fisheries up there. This latest spill is within in spitting distance of the world's largest city, and near Japan's fisheries. Any guesses here on what this recent spill may mean for Japan's economy, the Yen, gold, etc.? Thanks.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 14:51)
@...a bottom or bottomless pit ?

(Wed Jul 02 1997 14:54)
Stumped Again
I was just online with Lind Waldock to check the status of my order and noticed that Dec400 Comex gold calls were steady ( open, hi, lo, close ) all day today at $20/option. But so were Dec410 calls, Dec420 calls, and Dec430 calls. Why would anyone pay $20 for a Dec410 call when ( s ) he could get a call with a strike of $400 for the same price? And what's with 420 and 430 calls? Why pay $20 for them? What am I missing? Is the mkt so thin for these things that buyers are buying whatever is available at 400, then going out to 410-430 and paying the same price for them, just to glom onto some? Okay, I'll shut up now. Thanks.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 14:59)
I am "on the beach" in Hawaii, brought my laptop with me so I could keep up on the news ( kitco news of course ) and keep track of my E-Mail. I will be here for the next ten days. What a beautiful place Hawaii is. The sun shines down, the waves boom and the breezes caress us and it is so green here and the water so blue.

Ah Reify, Maxine & I congratulate you & Yvette on the upcoming marriage. I wish we could be there to dance at your wedding. Having met you and Yvette I know how happy you two will be. We will be toasting you on the 11th. With our favorite champagne. God Bless you & keep you.

My advice to all Kitcoites is to get out of debt, Love the Lord ( from Him comes strength & wisdom ) and treat your fellow man with fairness & kindness

(Wed Jul 02 1997 15:11)
@...Tokyo Oil Spill, FED Rates, and points of inflexion
Andy Grove ( INTEL Boss ) wrote about points of inflection where change is thinking becomes expedient from factors that are principally out of control.

The Japanese Prime Minister requested the FED to increase rates to justify Japans L-T holdings of US govt debt and to help stabilize YEN/DOLLAR currencies. A recent Oil Spill in Tokyo Bay has been recorded as a National Disaster. The Japanese Prime Minister had requested the assistance of all citizens AND the US military to help with the containment and cleanup.

Should the FED not increase rates or the US military not heed the call for help to clean-up the largest Oil Spill in Japan's history ( I understand ) this could be seen as a slap in the face of the Japanese PM ...and a decisive point of inflexion surrounding US-Japan relations.

Consider the opportunity Japan would have by following through on its threat to dump US debt in favor of gold and other currencies.

Perhaps events now brewing will result in a sea change in gold demand/pricing that will catch the shorts with their pants down and cause a speculative run to boost the yellow metal through the roof ?


(Wed Jul 02 1997 15:45)
@...first shoe drops
The FED will not increase rates due to an impending slow-down in the US economy. It is clear that the Japanese have "helped" finance the US paper let's see if the US military will help with a politically sensitive Oil Spill in Tokyo Bay.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 16:01)
Bob- Back in May, Sakakibura warned Japanese investors about the prospects for an increase of the yen vs dollar, and consequently, the advisibility of purchasing or holding US debt. I think his comments were meant to direct capital flows back toward Japan, strengthen the yen, and allow Japan to increase interest rates in the second half. Now, in the face of the increasing value of the yen, they apparently feel that they are not making enough on the spread, and would like the US to increase rates to accomodate them, despite the lack of inflationary pressures. I think that Clinton and Rubin told them, if they want to get Japan back on its feet, do as we have done: get competitive, relax central control of business and the economy, and open your markets. Now that they have not gotten their way, they have resorted to threats and blackmail of the only friend they have in this world. I am beginning to believe that the leaders of Japan are a group of dangerous fools and beauracrats who refuse to accept that they are responsible for the problems they have created for themselves, and that they are entitled to relief at the expense of their American slaves. They are playing a game that they cannot win, and I applaud Clinton for not giving sway to their ludicrous impulses, possibly the first issue upon which I agree strongly with the man

(Wed Jul 02 1997 16:25) sky counterpoint
I was thinking about the FED's reaction to the Japanese request for higher US rates and YEN/Dollar stabalization in context of today's news that the FED will not increase rates.

What if the FED was looking for a party spoiler ? Don't the Japanese fill that gap nicely ? If the FED needed a scapegoat to reign in the paper Bull the Japanese would be excellant fall-guys.

If the Japs pull the plug on the US BULL by selling-off material amounts of US debt and buying gold and EC currency based securities they will be seen as the party poopers and defray attention from the FED and the US govts 'lazy' affair approach to this historic BULL run. Good copy if anything.

George s. Cole
(Wed Jul 02 1997 16:39)
No Hope?
Today Andy Smith was quoted as saying there is no hope for gold. The best he can offer is that it may not go down in a straight line. He argues ( correctly in my view ) that it will take an exogenous shock to turn the yellow stuff around. But he cannot conceive of such a shock occurring.

With stock valuations at the highest levels ever and a parabolic stock market bubble roaring ever higher, the fact that someone like this cannot even conceive that this game will ever end, speaks volumes about the extent to which the bubble is eclipsing rationale financial thought. No sign of an end end yet, but when the music stops anybody left standing will be on their way to the poorhouse in record time.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 16:40)
So what if two or three big time speculators ( billionaires ) are planning to drive gold down to 325 or thereabouts and then turn around and buy contracts and start taking delivery? If Japan dumps some treasuries to pay for the oil spill, buys some gold too and Mexico needs some dough to clean up the volcano damage, so they sell treasuries. Hey! Gold is going to rally big time. Whoa what time is it? Did I sleep that long? What a dream.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 16:41)
Some Kito-ites today were asking about Keynes Quotations. There are two that stick out in my mind - however, the first is really not a quotation per se, but his reference to gold in the early part of this century as "that Barbarous Metal." It is interesting to recall "that Barbarous Metal" was valued at a mere $20.67 when he uttered the remark. And as we all know it eventually reached $850 a few decades later.

Very apropos relative to the current stock market mania was his comment in late-1927: "WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY MORE CRASHES IN OUR TIME!" Mr. John Maynard Keynes implicitely ( albeit naively ) believed that cycles had become obsolete. IMHO the Wall Street chorus-line is singing the same tune again.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 16:59)
Foreign Money to US Stocks
Some of the stock traders over on AVID talking about how much foreign money is coming in to play the game now.....Oh my goodness....This is getting messier and messier by the day.....

(Wed Jul 02 1997 17:06)
SPEED: What if Japan decided to do its mischief over the long weekend when U.S. markets are closed and they are open? I think we are grasping for straws but.......

(Wed Jul 02 1997 17:07)
Gold is going down because the speculators are selling more than the market will bare at a constant price. What happens when the shorts cover?

RJ: When do you cover? In what range? If George Soros covers and starts taking delivery before you do and the price goes back up, will you jump back in and sell? If that's a trade secret, then how about a technical one. Is it increasingly harder or increasingly easier to drive the price down, if you are using leverage to short the market? At what point approximately does the law of diminishing returns cause the game to turn the other way?

If the COT analysis posted here earlier is correct, then the commercial players are buying in anticipation of price going back up. I think this game is about to turn with or without the stock market.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 17:13)
Selby you asked where did you hear about the "a permanent bull market for stocks"? I haven't seen this crazy notion anywhere yet. I don't think he meant it that seriously, just the prevailing new investment views. Also See last Saturday's Globe and Mail, June 20, page B20. "gold bugs are clinging to 50 year old ideas about gold as an investment" etc etc. ( My own views are somewhere in between these two extremes. )

(Wed Jul 02 1997 17:18)
oops, make that june 28 "Gold loses lustre for all but the bravest"

Short Bull
(Wed Jul 02 1997 17:25)
Bought Platinum
Is there any place on the internet to follow Platinum futures trading prices after trading is closed in New York?

(Wed Jul 02 1997 17:26)
George Cole ( Your 16:39 ) : I really love your economics ( seriously ) , and you can educate me on that subject all day long. In case it was my post to Eldorado last night which led you astray ( and not a typo ) , "rationale" is a noun ( as in "he has a rationale for his actions" ) . "Rational" is an adjective ( as in "rational financial thought" ) . If I am being pedantic, it is only because I do not like to see your rational financial thought diminished by an improper grammatical rationale ( :- ) ) ) !!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 17:30)
I agree with George s. Cole's posting and Andy Smith comments that it will take an EXOGENOUS event, i.e., war, natural or man-made cataclysm
to turn gold around. I still believe that oil, especially long term, will prove and excellent holding. Did anyone notice the tremendous recent rise in oil drilling stock, Schlumbarger? Would love to see gold move back up
( have a significant holding ) , but remain bearish as to present developments.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 17:32)

(Wed Jul 02 1997 17:35)
It was somewhat chilling to check back in today and find that someone
was actively recruiting volunteers to pump a few slugs into me.

I work at a U.S. government institution, as has been "outed" here in the past.

Would the person who posted this incredibly sick suggestion please
identify himself, or would you prefer I initiate the process of investigating
what is for all intents and purposes a death threat?

(Wed Jul 02 1997 17:35)
It was somewhat chilling to check back in today and find that someone
was actively recruiting volunteers to pump a few slugs into me.

I work at a U.S. government institution, as has been posted here in the past.

Would the person who posted this incredibly sick suggestion please
identify himself, or would you prefer I initiate the process of investigating
what is for all intents and purposes a death threat?

(Wed Jul 02 1997 17:54)
Ron: Loved your short physics course. More, more, SVP. .... Now perhaps something more germane. ie, what would happen if we put our Krands into a box and close it tightly. Will they devolve into a really useful element like say, lead or zinc? ....... Or will the cleaning lady steal them? An interesting thought experiment. Eh?

(Wed Jul 02 1997 17:55)
blue sky
Bob- What an interesting analyses. One thing is clear: there is bad blood between Clinton and Hashimoto. I think that Hashimoto felt that he lost face at the G7 on account of this arrogant young upstart, and felt it so deeply that he succumbed to pride and responded angrily, threateningly, emotionally, and revealingly in his public remarks. If he can find an opportunity to get revenge without hurting himself, I believe he will take advantage of it.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 18:02)
Do you think he'll chew on Bill's ear a bit ?

(Wed Jul 02 1997 18:09)
Canadian Tropics
It is hot hot hot in sweltering Canada, 30 degree below cold is but a distant memory. A stranger walking around up here now would never in a million years figure this place goes into deep freeze for 5 whole months.

If the US stock market were Canada, this is Indian Summer in late October. Gold is your moth balled fur coat in the cedar closet.

George S. Cole
(Wed Jul 02 1997 18:17)
gold stocks hold up
Impartial: Thanks for the grammar lesson!

Gold stocks held up pretty well today considering the smash in bullion. Perhaps this is because short-selling speculators, not CB sales or producer hedging, are reponsible for the entire drop according to Steve Kaplan. Perhaps some smart stock players sense this situation cannot persist much longer.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 18:23)
All: You can still sell the Dow and pocket 23.46 ounces of the yellow stuff, 1680 of the silver. I hope the recent top of 23.5 holds. We should know tomorrow. It is STILL the best deal you could get since 1966.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Jul 02 1997 18:24)
trivia triviata
VRONSKY: I believe it was the Maynard who also said "In the long run we're all dead." As a socialist I cannot consider him MY pal, tho I do certainly find rational his rationale.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 18:24)
George: No problem. Thanks for accepting it in the spirit in which it was intended !!

Mike Sheller
(Wed Jul 02 1997 18:27)
I want to make it perfectly clear...
Re my last post: JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES is the socialist of which I speak. A philosophy to me too vile to speak.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 18:30)
Donald: I like your attitude! The tough part of this drop is over. The roller coaster is going our way again soon. The lower gold goes, the better the buy.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 18:38)
Earl: Oh, dear, I've misled you into thinking that I wrote that physics lecture. I only WISH that I were clever enough to come up with something like that, just as I only wish gold would go up to $9,000/oz. Alas, I found it on usenet. But since you asked for more, here's one that may make you chuckle.

A Scotsman and a Jew went to a restaurant. After a hearty meal, the
waitress came by with the inevitable check. To the amazement of all,
the Scotsman was heard to say, "I'll pay it!" and he actually did.

The next morning's newspaper carried the news item:


Has Tort already told that one? If there are any ventriloquists on Kitco, will you please, please, make Alan Greenspan say something in public that'll goose gold?

The only difference between genius and stupidity is that genius is limited.

Wife: a former sweetheart.
--H.L. Mencken ( 1880-1956 )

I can't take a well-tanned person seriously.
--Cleveland Amory

If the world were a logical place, men would ride sidesaddle.
--Rita Mae Brown

(Wed Jul 02 1997 18:48)
@New England
This lower the gold goes the better complacency is a little worrisome. With the commitment of Traders this positive and the funds very short it is amazing the decline has continued this persistently. Conversely the stk mkt continues to flourish in spite of near record bullishness and the little guy getting long the S&P futures while commercials get short. Does the contrarianism mean any thing when heard instinct is in full fore ie buy stox and dont buy metals or sell what you have. Timing is the issue!! Comments?

(Wed Jul 02 1997 19:03)
Tensions are running pretty high around here. How about we all make a circle and say "Om".

(Wed Jul 02 1997 19:21)
Market Maven report rings with logic & clarity. We have a Goldilocks Economy coexisting with a Vampire Financial State. Steve Puetz Letter:

(Wed Jul 02 1997 19:21)
@Clinton / Hashimoto - the rematch
Tyson- LOL ! I don't know, but if he does, I'll pay to watch !!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 19:28)
hey hep-kitty---

how is the deed to be done? catnip? a big dog? old age?

have'nt read "THE THREAT" yet. got to your post and HAD
to ask the question!

wait, it just came across the horizon on the back of a
smoke signal----it reads----hoof and mouth disease does
the trick.

it had to be something!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 19:50)
@Honolulu Office
As posted earlier this past spring, gold is ready to soar!

On July 12th, gold is ready to begin its long march upward. This will be an explosive move up! We will see $500 gold this year.

I am presently accumulating calls on gold and adding to my platinum calls as well. I am buying selected precious metals stocks I know will benefit greatly from the move up.

As some know from my prior posts last summer and fall, I encouraged investors to begin accumulating platinum positions as well as the purchase of Stillwater Mining. I am currently unable to explain my reasons for my bullish forcast for legal and ethical reasons; however, in the near future, I will share my methodolgy with you as well as who I am. I can tell you that I manage a very significant amount of capital. I have an international newsletter, and I am listed in the Guiness Book of World Records. I have offices in London, Zurich, Tokyo, New York & Honolulu.

I have been right alot more than I have been wrong - that's is why I am very wealthy. I had no money as a young man. But I have been wrong before.

If I am wrong about this date, then I am looking for February 1998 as the next lift off date for gold. Keep some powder dry just in case.

Be ready friends!

gold up .30 and silver up .03
(Wed Jul 02 1997 20:01)
@tumbleweed plaza
Gold up .30 and silver up .03. This is it, this is it, the "big" rally. Big big big rally! HAHAH. Are their any goldbugs left?

itsy bitsy trader
(Wed Jul 02 1997 20:07)
@water spout
If this KRY bet plays out, I probably will go out a buy a shoebox full of Silver Maple Leafs ( or two or five ) . Crossing my fingers and toes!

-- report by VHeadline/VENews  Editor Roy S. Carson --

Caracas: Wednesday, July 2, 1997 -- Crystallex International
Corporation ( KRY ) ViP Richard Marshall says he can neither confirm or
deny exclusive VHeadline/VENews source information that senior
executives of his company held meetings in Vancouver last Thursday with
ditto from Placer Dome in an attempt by Placer to arrive at "an equitable
arrangement" ahead of KRY's AGM.

Highly credible sources in London have told VHeadline/VENews that
meetings have continued into this week with the Venezuelan government
heaping on added pressure for both sides to "reach an accommodation"
parlayed at 40/40/20 with Placer/Crystallex/CVG respectively.

KRY's Marshall says the company is open to any offer that is in its
shareholders' best interests but likewise refuses to comment on discussions
with other major-leaguers, among whom we're told Barrick Gold has been
"in conversation with the company for the last two weeks" with what's
described as a "substantially more attractive offer" than what Placer's
supposedly putting on the table. Marshall likewise refuses to confirm or deny
that meetings with Barrick have taken place.

What's for sure is that once the Venezuelan Supreme Court's 4th ruling is
announced in Crystallex's favor, there's going to be "a bidding war for
Crystallex" in which Placer ( despite its size ) appears to be on the

With 100% of the Las Cristinas 4 & 6 properties legally under
its control, Crystallex International is naturally expecting
Placer and the Venezuelan Guayana Corporation ( CVG ) to
drop out of the claim completely.

CVG Ynaty will most probably be forced to kiss goodbye to the his
presidency of that state-owned organization, but there'll be few around
to shed crocodile tears at his demise. He's got his sights set on
becoming Governor of the State of Bolivar, but he's working up a
mighty opposition even to those plans.

VHeadline/VENews source in London says that whatever's going to
happen within the next few days it's most probably going to be the
announcement of a "friendly takeover proposal" by top contenders like
Barrick but with Placer Dome relegated to second base unless they put
more "icing on the cake" than they've come with to date.

At $100 an ounce and estimates of 9 million, 15 million, 20+ million
and 25 million ( depending on who you're talking to! ) it would appear
the stock market sky's the limit!

Crystallex's Marshall says "the trouble is that Placer's never
taken off the boxing gloves..." which is tantamount to saying
that unlike a Tyson-type street-brawl -- which it might well
come to -- the ear's definitely going to be given to the most
friendly, the most sympathetic and the most profitable

Jennifer Warnes
(Wed Jul 02 1997 20:10)
@ these prices
First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 20:13)
Swinging for the Fences
gold up .30 and silver up .03 ( @tumbleweed plaza ) : Please, please write some naked Dec 400 calls for me. The bid is 10. A hundred of them would do just fine. Quick way for you to make a thousand bucks.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 20:17)

is there any possibility that you have relatives with initials

all the info you've given leads me astray, and makes one wonder,
why you should predicate your prediction with them. do these facts ( pseudo? ) qualify you as one to follow with investments?
no one can ( or will ) prove or dis-prove the validity of your
braggadocio. ( facts ) if you are WHO and WHAT you say you are,
then come out of the shadows and stand on high ground. if you
are a slime eating lawyer, ( sorry tort ) or a broker, just say
"i have green slimy teeth." it will be ok. look at hep-kitty!!?!?
supposed to have 9 of something??

(Wed Jul 02 1997 20:18)
There appears to be a tentative consensus here that an "exogenous" event is necessary for a gold turnaround. Statistically, the likelihood of such an event can be calculated by multiplying together the odds of all such events _not_ happening ( over some term ) , and subtracting from 100%. Let's make our term 5 years ( which is really too short ) Let's look at the odds that:

10 ) The Year 2000 problem will not cause significant economic dislocation: 95%. I work on large computer programs. They are harder to fix than estimated, 70% of the time.

9 ) All 40,000 of the nuclear weapons in the world will sleep through the next five years: 98%.

8 ) No single, or set of, climatic event ( s ) will have a severe impact on the world's markets: 97%

7 ) No subtle misfiring ( a la 1929 ) in the world economy will send it into a tailspin: 96%

6 ) No world or near-world conflict will evolve: 95%

5 ) No local conflict ( e.g., Middle East ) will arise with global economic impact: 94%

4 ) No calamitous truly earth-exogenous event will occur ( asteroid, aliens ( sorry to even mention that ) ) : 99.9%

3 ) No world-tragic event which we could not imagine or foresee will occur: 99%.

2 ) The world debt crisis will not reify: 93%

1 ) No other comparable event/scenario will transpire: 83%.

If you like, go through and put in your own odds, them multiply it all together. With mine, it is 95*98*97*96*95*94*99.9*99*93*83 = 59.1%.

Thus, about a 60% chance of avoiding crisis in any 5-year period. Maybe I am extreme - let's say it is not 60% but an 80% chance of no crisis in 5 years, which _perhaps_ aligns more with history. ( That would be 20 events, each 99% sure not to happen, by the way ) . Then, over a 15-year period, there is an .8*.8*.8 = 51.2%.

So, an even chance that in the next 15 years the doomsayers will be right.

Of course, not every catastrophe bodes well for gold prices, much less gold stocks. But I believe it is very arguable that the stabilizing effects of communication and technology are offset by other factors which must be taken into consideration.

Reasoned response appreciated.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 20:25)

where is THE THREAT??

yes, i have some cat-nip!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 20:55)
2weeks: The current downdraft in gold is caused IMHO by speculators. I am hitch hiking on Steve Kaplans research and thinking as well as the Captain @ the Privateer. Once the shorts decide to cover the price will go the other way. No exogenous event is necessary. The dow doesn't have to crash or even correct. I talked to one of the commercial boys today and he thinks this scenario is true and picked the range of 327-328 as the turning point. No BT, no BS, just an opinion. We keep trying to pick a time and instead should be looking at a price range where it is so hard to short that the shorts will quit and go the other way.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 21:03)
August gold up one up least it in the right direction....!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 21:06)
280+ pages of financial data, analysis, reports & studies - VIRTUAL ENCYCLOPEDIA OF PRECIOUS METALS. Use SEARCH GOLD-EAGLE button in HOT NEWS box to find what you seek - RAPIDLY:

(Wed Jul 02 1997 21:08)
in sack-o-tomatoes
2weeks: We can't multiply the probabilities because the events aren't independent. But you are absolutely correct to believe that goldbugs ARE NOT counting on some single preposterously unlikely event to come along and save their hides, as many of gold's detractors have claimed.

The risk of war breaking out in the next few years between some particular country X and some other country Y may be small, but the risk of war breaking out somewhere is much greater. And the chance that war will break out somewhere OR that we'll see a sharp correction in the Dow is much greater yet, etc. Additionally, we shouldn't calculate these probabilities in a vacuum. We have to condition them on current world events: A sky-high Dow, an extremely heavy debt load, escalating international tension, etc.

I think the chance of something untoward happening -- but nonetheless something good for gold -- in the next few years is much greater than dreamy-creamy market bulls would have us believe. I haven't done the formal calculations. I can't do them. There is no way to estimate probabilities for some of these things. For instance, what's the probability that a terrorist will get his hands on a nuclear or biological weapon? There's no way to estimate that. We certainly can't base the estimate on the frequency of similar instances in the past.

Anyway, I agree with you. I think the chances are greater than fifty-fifty, perhaps as great as sixty-forty, or even seventy-thirty -- enough, in any event, for me to place my bets. Off my soapbox.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 21:08)
You got to love it when gold shares are going UP when gold spot is going down ( except this morning in Australia ) !!!!!!!!!!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 21:16)
One day somebody somewhere is going to need to buy some gold and the next guy thinks he will get in before the price goes up because he also needs gold in the future. A couple of traders look at each other and say "We may not see this price for five years again, even though I hate gold it represents a bargin to be had". They also start buying! Wow gold up $20

(Wed Jul 02 1997 21:20)
The moral of the story is get your history books out and BUY BUY BUY. Not because you will make me money ( you may ) but because gold is an excellent buy even if it continues to fall from here!!! COME ON..... $331 YOU GOT TO BE KIDDING... PROCRACINATING WILL ONLY LOSE YOU MONEY AT THIS PRICE

(Wed Jul 02 1997 21:23)
@Cherokee blowin smoke up his...
To Cherocreep-

In the future, disregard my comments as they are not intended for you. I in turn will continue to disregard your meaningless mutterings.

My advice is directed to my readers that visit this site and not necessarily to anyone posting on this board. But I can assure you, many will listen once my projection comes to fruition. You can be sure there will be many interested in understanding my methodology when the event unfolds as described.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 21:29)
@The Specs
Speed - If the prospect of being short over a long holiday weekend does not prove incentive enough for the shorts to take some profits, I wonder, what's it gonna take? They appear to be well-saddled, and set for the ride. Without meaning any disrespect to Mr. Kaplan, is there any event short of the successfull transmutation of lead into gold that might cause his indicator to deviate from from "strongly bullish" ?

(Wed Jul 02 1997 21:33)

Cherokee -

Wed Jul 02 1997 08:57
Dr. Kevorkian ( prescription @ 4-U )
Johnny Hep man...I have something that'll cure that
nasty bug of yours. A dose of cyanide. Since you're only a
med STUDENT and the REAL doctors won't let you play
with REAL chemicals, maybe the gunrunner nuts will provide
you with a large caliber handgun to do the job.
If not, I'm sure we could find a few willing trigger men here.
Any volunteers?

Wednesday Jul 02 1997 10:19
General ( to Dr. Kevorkian ) :

As a resident gunrunning nut, I have an H&K USP equipped
with .45 caliber hydro-shok hollowpoints. Will that do the trick?

These messages were written by the same person.

Cherokee, if you find this so amusing as to make light of it, perhaps you would
like to contact the division of LAN support or the head of security here at the CDC.
The telephone number is 404-639-3311. I'm sure they would be very
happy to update you on the investigation, and point out how seriously threats
on government employees lives are handled.

ted butler
(Wed Jul 02 1997 21:37)
@ speed
Re; your 20:55 - Agree completely. I would just add guessing the price is secondary to guessing the maxium amount the specs can short. Guess that, and you've effectively got the bottom, whether it turns immediately or not ( I guess it will ) . The fact the specs are record net short gold and silver ( a guess that will be revealed in the COT on Monday, would suggest they're there or real close to being full-up.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 21:38)
@New England
Being a Liberal ( comparatively ) is easy next to being a goldbug. The indignation and treatment you have to endure leads me to believe that our condition is immutable and thus should be protected under the civil rights laws just as any other "suspect" classification such as race, sex, national origin or any other immutable characteristic. The TEST in the the Supreme Court is the immutability of the characteristic. Given golds performance and the continued resilience of this crowd/ I think that there is even money we can get protection under the civil rights laws as a minority which is discriminated against with respect to a characteristic we can not change. Comments?
This has potentially profound implications my fellow monority victims!!! Say the word and we go for it!!!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 21:43)
I'm so certin the spot is about to turn in a big way that I may sell my dog ( spot ) and buy some gold!!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 21:51)
To WW: Is timing everything? Do you expect stocks to close 90% lower the same day that gold runs up to $1,000? My thought is that there is far more risk trying to pick tops/bottoms than there is in missing the the beginning of a reversal.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 21:58)
@cabal of gold shorts
Telecaster: Your points are well-taken. Mr. Kaplan is my kind of stout-heart! But to the purpose at hand: If the primary players currently shorting gold are few in number and well financed, then they will power down the price of gold in a disciplined, lengthy ( several months ) campaign to wear out the market. They aren't looking for the kind of short term profits to be gained just before a holiday. Think how breath taking it would be to defeat the market, forcing the price below a 10 year low. Producers will sell at low prices just to stay open. Perhaps these few players are buying options along the way. At some point, they step back in and buy all the bullion they want from a quivering, defeated market and when/if the price moves up, their options double the win. The market is already so battered, that every rally is clobbered by fresh selling from producers trying to stay in business. The banks don't care. They have more gold than they know what to do with. The commercial players are buying, slowing the decline. Gold is cheap. Only time will tell.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 22:09)

To those of you long common stocks of the non-gold variety, sleep well. A few minutes back we laid in a fine sacrifice to the market gods in the Globex session. I hope it will be as well received as our last offering many moons ago. If our offer is looked upon favorably, then those all knowing and beneficent deities which rule the fortunes of we mortal traders, will rocket the SP to new heights, but also deign to help some of our other positions. Because we have a rather large position in silver options, I would be ever so humble if a small rally of perhaps $2.00 were to ensue.

As an aside, I just got off the phone with our night metals desk and had an interesting conversation with its head. He relayed to me that the gold market was so bad that he had no buy orders on the books tonight at any price. It seems that the fear level is about as high as its going to get. The way the market is set up when the reversal happens, it will be big and fast. Those who want to get long will be unsure at first and then nervous at buying into a short covering rally which might reverse at any moment. A small pullback will ensue only to be met with another wave up covering and buying. The rapidly rising lease rates, combined with the pathetic sentiment and the total and complete absence of buyers is a flamable mixture.

John: Sorry to have to refuse your last offer, its not even remotely fair. I will however bet you a small piece of humble pie that there is no $325 in 1997. I will eat graciously if I am wrong and will write a fitting tribute to the brilliance of your analysis. If not, I expect something similar in return. Best of Luck.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 22:15)
@New England
SPEED makes good points except the sellers are not in the cash mkt but are Merrill and others in the paper mkt. The paper mkt has a surplus of gold while he physical mkt is at a continuing deficit. This will grow bigger as the paper gold mkt drives prices to un economic levels for many mines. The paper boys are forcing the physical boys and girls to become more aggressive in their selling. It may not continue much longer. Just like the paper Merrill probably uses in stock index futures to rescue the mkt the opposite is true for gold.That we are/ will reach unimaginable imbalances in the financial system soon is key. Without the current imbalances consumer confidence would be low as: there could be no positive spin w/o higher mkts and thus more financial defaults occuring would appropriately unmask the false goldilocks debt economy. Only crashing in financial wealth will make people believe. "Back in the USSR" was a great parody, useful today vis a vis our financial situation!!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 22:18)
@50 ton short position
D.A.-- What do you make of this story, particularly the comment on the palladium short position on the TOCOM.

And if Reuters changes this story again.... I copied it!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 22:18)
Speed Ron Scott: Points well made. Interdependence of the potential calamitous events was discounted due to the relative unlikelihood of each, as well as the wildly approximate nature of the estimations in general.

But I pose this question to the forum: Over what term ( starting at the present, in number of years ) is there a 50/50 chance of a calamity affecting North America on the order of the US Civil War, either world war, or the 1930s depression?

For starters, I say, 20.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 22:30)
D.A. - Yeah, well, it was just kinda off the top of my head.
Besides, after all this, $345 would be to you what the dessert portions in a
chintzy buffet line are to me - Not enough to satisfy, just enough
to make a guy angry. Hope you get to $400. Don't worry about
responding if we ever get to $326. The self-satisfaction will be more
than enough, and all of Kitco will find me quite intolerable for a few hours.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 22:34)
Any rally of substance needs to push gold above or near 340. XAU should wave between 95-98 until something gives anyone reason to be outstanding.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 22:35)
@durges in Dinghy
WOW!! Surprizingly upbeat here, with Au at these levels I expected, on my return, to find a decidedly downcast mood here, hahaha must be TED's absence. ABN is heading pos. as we speak ( type ) .

(Wed Jul 02 1997 22:42)
Looks like another uneventfull day on the markets today. Instead of clicking on refresh I might go down the back of my house and fish. Ahhhh, Brisbane, Australia - 22 degrees cent' and not a cloud in the sky. Who cares what the nasty gold spot is doing eh!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 22:49)

The Japanese futures markets are somewhat bizarre. All of the trading is done in contracts way in the future. We trade a number of commodities over there like red beans, and cotton yarn, where we routinely take positions in contracts more than a year out because they are the only liquid ones. I have no idea how people can hedge paper positions in the physical market because of the extreme time mismatches. The general feeling about the Japanese Pa market is that there are a lot of speculative shorts which are hedged by the commission houses with short sales of the physical metal. The paper contracts against these hedges apparently do not begin coming due until the fall. From what I hear from my metals desk, there is still very little physical metal about and trading is extremely thin. I think that supplies are just being drawn down and rationed until there will literally be none left. Barring big time supply from Russia, I still believe we will see a massive squeeze as the Sept contract comes due. All the physical metal that was put out on loan at usurous rates in June will come due along with the Sept delivery. The world has so much cash and so little palladium.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 22:56)

Believe it or not, we own not a single ounce, paper or otherwise of the yellow metal. I own some small cap Canadian mining stocks that are in need of resuscitation, but fortuneately the one large position that I have in this area has managed a mighty gain this year due to the possibility of a large expansion of one of their mines. I've just been trying to get a little action here so that I could call myself a gold bug. It appears that I may soon be forced out into that cold cruel world of option buying, for my patience with this decline is running out.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 22:57)
D.A. -- Thanks.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:01)

thanks for the re-post. i am quite amused by all the good
you seem to be able to bring out in people!! how do you
do it?

if you think that referring me to some security division,
because i find bemusement at your expense, will intimidate
me, you are quite mistaken. i threaten no ones' person,
only their sensibilities. now you have offended me by
turning humor into illegal activities! ( dnc )

this is the problem with liberals. when something is said
that offends them, they spin it into charachter assassination,
or say it is illegal. the web is a global frying pan that
cares not whom is being cooked, all that is needed is some
"meat." you are the proverbial low cut of beef, simmering
in over-cooked gravy, with the fire turned up high.
get out of the frying pan, if you cannot stand the heat.

hey geff--where you been lately?

cherokee!; ) hacker-of-the-weine-wackers----------------

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:04)
Not another one

IMO - 19:50 @ Guiness Book of World Records.

WOW! Thats the first time I have seen anyone admit that. Perhaps you will gain another entry, lets say. For the biggest whopper. The only way gold will hit $500 this year is if every ounce comes with three $50 bills. I breathlessly await your next revelations. July 12 you say? Hmmmm.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:04)
@ hot under the rib cage
Hey Johny hepcat dude. Go play in you sandpit and learn how to be a
real sport. Every Doc dude I ever went to made me chronically ill so take
a hike in to yesterday and stop using hepcat handle. Why arnt you learning your western ways of making people better instead of raiding
mummy's handbag for more cash to fund your extracurricula activities.
Let me read more of your nana na na na letters and I might end up spewing
some real heavy duty bile your way.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:08)
AND ALL...I wish to go on record as expressing my opinion that NO spectacular ( EXOGENOUS ) event is necessary to cause the start of a bull market in the metals....PLEASE mark me on record as saying that no spectacular event is necessary.....BEEN THERE, DONE THAT, more than once.....Sure, later into the move, reasons will be expressed as to why, mentions will be made of news that was ignored, etc. Metals are markets !! Markets get gyrated.....You must keep in mind that bears drive the markets as low as they will go. Bulls drive the markets as high as they will go. You are experiencing a very normal part of the cycle. The other extreme of the cycle will show its self to you one day. WHEN ???? WHO KNOWS ????? I think you will see the signs that an upwards move will begin in a short time......

Mr. IMO....If you are trying to say you are the author of the "&*^%&^**& International Newsletter", I would like to point out that I lost mid to upper 5 figures on your crap in 1979-81....If you have gotten any better at picking markets, I invite you to prove it to me. My past experience is that all you do is bleed your subscribers....IMHO only and not designed to influence anyone else....

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:09)
cherokee - Amen.

John hairball kitty suture boy: He He HE HE. Are you trying to be funny? I hope so, because you are a riot.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:10)
D.A.: If the apparent short squeeze in the PGMs comes to pass, it should have some effect on the remainder of the PMs. Perhaps traders of gold and silver would begin to feel a keen interest in inventory versus the paper overhang.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:13)
@Margarita Island, Venezuela
Tensions are running v e r y high.......must be the signal that gold has really reached bottom.
We should remember that we all are but guests here on KITCO, and we should behave as such.
Itsy bitsy trader: In regards to Venezuelan courts, believe nothing of what your read. This is the world's second most judicially insecure country ( I think right after Nigeria ) . I was in Bolivar state last week....nothing to indicate any change there.

Can't take the suspense......blew off a big barril of dry powder today. ( Everytime I do that....price keeps dropping ) if I could only unload those other Caribbean beachfront condos....will finance in gold...

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:18)
He He He
RE: john ( ) :17:35 - Yo, hepcat baby boy. I thought you had a familiar style. You work at a government agency you say? Weren't you the guy who renewed my car registration at the DMV? OOOOOOOOOHHHHHH, an investigation..............He He......

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:19)

YOUR readers?? i'm sure you are more than anyone can imagine!
glad you have YOUR herd here with you. why would you find it necessary
to inform THEM, HERE? if THEY follow your predictions in YOUR
newsletter, why write to THEM here? if you are so sure of your-
self, and loaded with the OBVIOUS credentials, why not use your
real name? if YOUR readers know who you are, why should'nt we?
yes, you have much to hide, including your reputation.

cherokee!; ) hacker-of-the-wackers.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:20)
Cherokee - Then I will gladly refer the security division to you.
What is your telephone number again? "Standing the heat" is one
thing. Specific threats about hollow-point bullets in the age of
heightened security concerns due to the Saudi/OK city/Atlanta
bombings and terrorist activities directed against government
workers are quite another. I'm not trying to scare you, Cherokee.
I'm giving you a very strong hint that it would be a good idea to
stop posting taunts unless you have a specific reason to want to
continue to draw attention to yourself.

I work in a government institution, Cherokee. What do I have
to do to convince you that baiting me on this matter is not in
your best interest?

Paul Smith
(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:26)
Re: Dr. Kevorkian ( prescription@4-U ) ..."maybe the gunrunner nuts will provide you with a large caliber handgun to do the job. If not, I'm sure we could find a few willing trigger men here. Any volunteers?" AND... General ( to Dr. Kevorkian ) : " As a resident gunrunning nut, I have an H&K USP equipped with .45 caliber hydro-shok hollowpoints. Will that do the


I personally have visited this site for over a year now. I usually enjoy seeing postings from the regulars. The other day we had lots of laughs with such subjects as "What right has CBS to sell gold ?" etc. Unfortunately some postings have become downright rude and the above are most definitely threatening.

I believe that we should all be able to voice our opinions without being belittled or threatened. As regulars know, I'm a goldbug at heart. I've lost tens of thousands since last September. I come to the site to get a feeling of where the market's at from others. It seems to me that John has been very polite in his postings. He doesn't deserve this type of treatment any more than you or I.

Let's face it - we've all been wrong about gold ( most of us anyway ) . We would have done better to have been invested in blue chips over the last 4 - 5 years instead of being so damn contrary ! I certainly wish that I had done so - then I would have plenty of cash now to invest in gold futures.

Let's treat each other with respect so that we can enjoy the site.


(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:26)
B.T. ( Big Trader ) Your mystery is solved, many of us thought you were a bull. But today you secret was found out. You won the 3rd race at Hollywood Park, this afternoon, using your handle B.T.'s Gold. So fellow Kitcoists, he's not full of BS, it's HS.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:27)
RJ - The CDC is the Centers for Disease Control.
The DMV is the Department of Motor Vehicles.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:31)

You just don't know what you've got till its gone.....

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:32)
hepc: there was never any doubt in my mind that you were on clifton road. where else?

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:36)

Reading the newswires tonight I came across a story where it was written that one of the high priorities of the new governors of HK was to end the real-estate speculation and the squeeze on property. If this game is removed from the casino perhaps our Asian friends will revert to their more traditional gaming haven, namely gold.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:38)
Hey friend - Why do I feel like this is a phone conversation
that I have to keep you on the line for a certain amount of time
for? You and me are an awful lot alike...Tell me about what
drives you. Do you ever yearn?

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:39)
REGULARS......IS there a reason why you cannot ignore a fool when they appear on this thread ???? Is it not obvious to you that appearances of these types who wish to see their names often in captions at any expense will post whatever it takes ???? If they want to see their names in the captions, then let them post something of significance....There is plenty of room here for anyone with an opinion, just don't go out of your way to pi&& everyone off....

I don't care if someone agrees with me or not...Well, I really do. as a disagreement provides food for thought.......Otherwise ignore them and go to the next post...IMHOAFWIW dept.....

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:41)
hepc: why do you add prepositions onto sentence ends when nervous?

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:44)

Friend - LOL. I'm not nervous, as I had this conversation with Bart a few
months ago. I didn't know how best to phrase that first sentence.

"Why do I feel like this is a phone conversation for which I have to keep
you on the line for a specified time?" seemed a little too formal.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:48)

to speak is one thing,
to threaten is another.

you see there ARE differences, if you look closely.
no threats have been issued, nor will they. ( by me )
YOU are threatining now. have your gov't buddies
subponea kitco and find out who is causing you
such angst. it is not i. i will laugh in your
there, now that was not so bad was it? being
laughed at is part of growing up. just look
at imo, and looooong gone! they elicited a plethura
of hilarity. you have the same distinction.
FYI, the circus IS hiring clowns you know.

cdc = center for democratic conundrums

cherokee!; ) protector of human frailty, and FREE SPEECH!!!!!

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:52)
(a friendly question)
What do you think about the HK real estate market? It seems to be way
overpriced now that China rules HK. Do you think business ( and residential ) will start to move to mainland China? Big differential in real estate and business costs. Something to think about.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:54)
Enough of this new era stuff
These are hard times in the gold pits, brutal mornings stretch into vicious afternoons that lead to apocalyptic closes. The worm is out of the tunnel, the hog has indeed turned. Fresh new shorts every hour to sell these once thriving demi-gods into blathering sodomites. And where is the mercy? From whence relief? Shall they loose it all and ride the snake back into the hole? Even the bowels of the Beast contract in horror at the mere mention of digesting these black and bleak souls who have traded any hopeless chance of everlasting paradise for a bottle of cheap gin and a three dollar whore. As they sink into the alley grime and pass out with the sent of reckless sex and dog urine lighting their spines into fire, they wonder where it all went so dastardly wrong. Why would faithful souls be treated thus? Now, with a bitter laugh of joyless glee, the gods descend and devour the precious little left of their wretched souls, forever stealing peace, goodwill, and charity, leaving in their stead the souls of gold traders caught by an angry and vengeful bear beast whose claws rake their hearts and rend all remaining stalwart faith. Next, to wake in a cruel mornings dew, they brush the old jujubes, toothpicks, and cigarette butts from their cheap Sears suits, tighten their $12 ties into sick and twisted knots, to then start a new day in the pits with faith fresh anew that the gods may spare them a day like last.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:55)

Cherokee - Whatever. You're gone from noisome to just plain boring.

Friend - Man, I feel like rookie agent Clarice. I've blown if from the first
sentence. How about this one: " Why do I feel like this is a phone
conversation that requires me to keep you on the line for a specified
amount of time?"?
Or this one:
"Why do I feel like this is a phone conversation in which my role is to
keep you on the line for a specific duration of time?"?

Cherokee - Are you keeping up? We've switched topics.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:55)
hepc: next time you pass a picture of don hopkins, genuflect, and all is forgiven. and understood.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:57)
To To:

I know very little about the HK real-estate market except that it is in a speculative frenzy. I do not know if it is like Japan was in the late 80's where the whole debt structure was built upon this asset. If so, and the new powers kick out the legs, more than the real estate market may come tumbling down.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:57)
in sack-o-tomatoes
2weeks: I get a probability of about 0.5 that nothing of that magnitude will happen for the next 25 yrs or so. The exogenous comments others have made here are good ones, agreed? For instance, the runnups in '79, '83, and '88 weren't associated with anything as calamitous as the Great Wars.

Okay, everyone. Let's let go of each others throats.

Hepcat: When my wife was in med school, she didn't have time for any extracurricular activities. How much time have you spent on Kitco tonight? Don't you have homework or something? Besides, how can you work for a govermental agency AND go to medical school at the same time??? Can't imagine . . . unless you don't do ANYTHING on the job and just study.

(Wed Jul 02 1997 23:58)
DEFLATIONARY PRESSURES GROW STRONGER: Deflation is rapidly taking over. Commodity prices continue to decline as measured by the CRB Index. Adding to the pressure in the likelihood of an economic downturn soon. Retail sales declined during March, April, and May. During June, the downturn may have intensified. Knight-Ridder reports: "General Motors today reported June US auto sales 16.7% below the year-ago period. Domestic truck sales dropped 7.8%.... Those results were surprisingly dismal, even for the most pessimistic of analysts."

Commenting on GM's sales, economist James Padinha said: "Sure you could get a sense they were bleak, but not this bad. This is the worst month for GM since at least 1992 [as the economy was emerging from recession]."

A collapsing, deflationary economy will surely send stocks crashing one day very soon. How much longer will it take investors and speculators to see the financial quick-sand surronding their feet????