Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Wed Jul 09 1997 00:08)
My two cents
Glen @ 21:11 - Your trade recommendation has some merit. I think we are more likely to see $300 in that same time period. I admit, it could go either way. Todays small rally was on very weak short covering, Im tempted to short tomorrow almost wherever it lands. I would love 3 - 4 up, but I would sell 322. Gold will continue its ride of woe.

Long silver is the perfect companion to the short gold. Silver always has better upside potential than gold, but we are now in the rare market where gold has more downside than silver. If gold goes up, silver will move much faster, if gold goes down, silver will find support sooner that gold. We might even see silver up and gold down at the same time. There is a very serious gap at 4.58 that silver would like to fill.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 00:48)
more Asia news....
Ever hear of the country of Myanmar? Well, it's in Indonesia and it's currency -- the kyat -- is in big trouble. I'm tellin' ya, the Pacific rim is going to fall apart first. The first leaks in the dike have started. I posted yesterday about Thailand. Today Myanmar. Once the dust settles in Hong Kong, they too are in for some rough sledding. Anyway, since I know you all are not busy buying and selling these days, check out the lastest in the kyat:

(Wed Jul 09 1997 01:00)
So sssllloooowwww..........must get through...... feeling weak........can't last must longer.......
Milhouse - Nobody last Thursday expected 4.25 silver Monday. Nobody. I think the commercials will buy in the low 4s. With new gold shorts to cover the downside, I feel good about silver at least filling the gap. I have averaged my 4.60 silver down to 4.35. With another nickel, Ill have profits. If 4.00 - 4.15 is in the cards, gold will probably flirt with 300 - 305. Either way, Ill be in the money. This market is for the stout of heart. My less speculative clients will sit this one out. Its my job to call a buy or sell, remember my advise about layering and leaving yourself an out. My trades are less risky today than they were last week.

Mooney - Its tough to debate with some who quotes Dolly Parton. You pulled out the big guns.

Qrgan @ 12:14 - A contrarian would disagree, a contrarian squared would not agree with those would disagree. Count me among the latter.

John Disney
(Wed Jul 09 1997 01:02)
To All

I quote from the local Investec Newsletter.
" The Aussie industry is almost certainly uneconomic
at these price levels so it will soon undertake a period
of considerable downsizing. Junior exploration has
almost ceased to exist while the North Americans
retreat from foreign adventures has limited their
effectiveness. This leaves the South Africans.
Analysts in Australia and Canada have always delighted
in noting the HIGH COSTS of the SA Mines. However they
their own industry costs have risen to surpass those of
Kloof, Dries, and the other SA Majors. The SA mines have
fat and flexibility. They WILL NOT CLOSE unless the gold
price stays at these levels for years - in short they
are the survivors."

I have been trying to demonstrate for months with
underwhelming success that the costs of the RSA mines
are nowhere near as high as the North American "experts"
think they are. Moreover I have for an even longer time
been pointing out that IF you are waiting for RSA to
"tank" or "implode" or some other such crap to make gold
go up - dont hold your breath.

Also somebody should explain to Mr MunK that gold
was in fashion LONG BEFORE Cleopatra. I feel that
little throw away line is another example, albeit tiny,
of a company that is unbelievably overated.

Hows that for unpopular statements. Also and just
so no one there thinks I speak from misguided RSA
patriotism - I was born in Richmond Va, and I carry
an Aussie passport - That my favorite country- I just
cannot stomach their government nor their taxes. But
they are the world's nicest and funniest people and
have the finest horse racing anywhere.

One final point on statements to the press made by
RSA mine management to the effect that mines will be
closing left and right. Dont believe everything you read
in the newspapers.The industry is in negotiation
with the NUM for a three year deal. They really want
things to look as bad as they can for public consumption.
Moreover, they have never taken much interest in the
beauty contest of who has the lowest cost. Barrick

(Wed Jul 09 1997 01:37)
My first post in a while, I enjoy this discussion group immensely - keep up the good work.
As everyone knows, we are living though some very interesting times. The stock market is basically in a vertical mode and excellerating. Commodities are under major pressure if not collapsing.

Like many people on this board, I have been under the incorrect impression that market manipulation and media distortions would not stem the tide of what looked to be a growing wave of inflation ( even though we have waffled between the possible deflation/ inflation senario ) .

Once agian, we stand looking over the abyss in disbelief. How can it be? The biggest debtor/spender chides the biggest creditor/saver for his lack of business acumen. The biggest creditor/saver states that he may want to sell treasuries and buy gold and soon afterward gold drops like a rock and treasuries move up.
I feel very comfortable that a very important situation is being played out, and the outcome is probably known by many. The time is coming closer and the sweat beads are popping out on many foreheads.

It seems to me that 3 or 4 years ago an article appeared that noted that China was looking to back its yaun with gold at some point in the future. I have not heard a whisper about the situation in years. In my travels to Australia it seems as if Japan already owns the Gold coast and for all I know many of its resources and resource rich companies.

The game I see being played out is definitely between the East and West. The change that we are about to experience is most likely is the polar shift of the economic center of the world from NYC and London to Shangai and Toyko. I suspect that gold will be the key in this shift. I believe the final hand is being played out. Of course, this is only my opinion.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 07:28)
DUNDEE: Youe post of 1:37 was well said and righ on in my opinion. It is much like the 30's in many respects. Competitive currency devaluations and massive gold shifts in a futile attempt to continue business as usual by the old leaders. It did not work in the 30's and it will not work now.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 07:29)
Joke of the morn
This ultra-sickly gold and silver market and its eventual rise from its own ashes reminds me of the following story. By the way, before the story, has anyone heard any word from Ted?

A very small, sickly-looking man was hired as a bartender.
The saloon owner gave him a word of warning: "Drop
everything and run for your life if ever you hear that Big John
is on his way to town." The man worked several months
without any problems.

Then one day a cowhand rushed in shouting, "Big John is
a'comin'," and knocked the small bartender on the floor in his
hurry to get out.

Before the bartender had a chance to recover, a giant of a
man with a black bushy beard rode into the saloon through
the swinging doors on the back of a buffalo, and using a
rattlesnake for a whip. The man tore the doors off their hinges,
knocked over tables, and flung the snake into the corner. He
then took his massive fist and split the bar in half as he asked
or a drink. The bartender nervously pushed a bottle at the
man. He bit off the top of the bottle with his teeth and downed
the contents in one gulp, and turned to leave. Seeing that he
wasn't hurting anyone, the bartender asked the man if he
would like another drink.

"I ain't got no time," the man roared. "Big John is a'comin' to

(Wed Jul 09 1997 07:44)
$600 in 2000

Roebear-Re your question--Still holding to my gold investments and buying as much as possible at these levels.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 07:44)

6Pak - enjoyed your 8/7 21:52 post. Thanks.

Scotty - Myanmar is not part of Indonesia. It is a separate country formerly known as Burma.

Regards, Milhouse

(Wed Jul 09 1997 07:57)
@the edge
When looking for the biggest wave of all, one must look for the lowest
ebb! This wave will not be no baby it will be a mother of a tsunami that
only those on the longest boards will be able to ride. The USA vision
awaits us! Dont believe anything that is delivered with a vested interest!!!!!!!!!!!

(Wed Jul 09 1997 07:58)
market positions
FWIW, ICYC ( In case you care ) ...I moved 50% out of the PM market during the past two weeks...out of FSAGX, FDPMX, ECO completely, yet remained in SWC AND SSC ( Plat and Silver ) . I am waiting for a CONFIRMED BULL before I get back into Gold. I thought that Plat was in a bull mode...but I am not so sure as of now. FWIW...

Bob A
(Wed Jul 09 1997 08:01)
at work
For what it's worth, Dessauer's mkt letter ( latest ) says to add to PDG position with drop to 15.He is looking for a double about a year out.

Bob A
(Wed Jul 09 1997 08:12)
to BillD
Dizard, who has a column in Nat. Review likes plat and pall. Most recent issue he says xpect a lot of volatility but he likes SWC a lot.In my opinion where theres smoke theres fire. I'm adding to my SWC position on dips.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 08:13)
Roebear -- At this point, the Heaven's Gate group is begining to look good! :- ) ) I caught a glimpse of the Wall Street Journal this A.M. In the front page of the markets section, even they are asking, "Is it time to but the gold stocks?" It's seems that even they are thinking that a wave of 'consolidation' will be taking place in the gold industry.

Regarding your question, I've been painfully adding to positions. I should know better, but some of these stocks... They'll probably get cheaper, BUT, who will take over whom??? That is the only upside that I see for now. As for who is doing in gold? At this point, I think the hedge funds have joined the trend. I still think that there is something far larger going here. When it turns, it will be abrupt and amazing in it's speed and price movement. I can't help but feel that the name of the game is to get as many people as is possible, lined up on one side of the market ( equities, futures, etc. ) and then haul out the .50 cal M2 machine gun and take them all out. I just hope that I'm on the 'right' side of the market. I know I'm wrong, so I must be right. Right?

(Wed Jul 09 1997 08:20)
but = buy

ron jett
(Wed Jul 09 1997 09:44)
a long time lurker here - for what it's worth to y'all tomorrow marks the 60th year that SSC ( Sunshine Mining ) has traded on the NYSE. I first began July 10th, 1937 and traded on that day around 19.00 a share.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 10:09)
From last night
Milhouse - Nobody last Thursday expected 4.25 silver Monday. Nobody. I think the commercials will buy in the low 4s. With new gold shorts to cover the downside, I feel good about silver at least filling the gap. I have averaged my 4.60 silver down to 4.35. With another nickel, Ill have profits. If 4.00 - 4.15 is in the cards, gold will probably flirt with 300 - 305. Either way, Ill be in the money. This market is for the stout of heart. My less speculative clients will sit this one out. Its my job to call a buy or sell, remember my advise about layering and leaving yourself an out. My trades are less risky today than they were last week.

Mooney - Its tough to debate with some who quotes Dolly Parton. You pulled out the big guns.

Qrgan @ 12:14 - A contrarian would disagree, a contrarian squared would not agree with those would disagree. Count me among the latter.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 10:12)
Having trouble getting Kitco to load this AM. The problem I have with the proponents of a rise in silver is that all the arguments for such a rise today can be found in books and newsletters 15-20 years ago. The major difference is the that digital cmaeras are here now and not just on the way. What is true for personal cameras is of course true for all photo equipment. I have lost track- but the demand for silver seems to have exceeded supply for a decade or more. Does anyone have long term suply - demand figures.

I like the Hunts ketsup but not their soup.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 10:15)
august gold
For accurate upto the minute information try

Bassy Tantalo
(Wed Jul 09 1997 10:18)
We hear much about the threat of continued central banks selling their gold reserves, but when they do, there is no mention of who's doing the buying. So, hho's buying up the gold? Is it the small guy on the corner block?

(Wed Jul 09 1997 10:23)
All the News Fit to Print - and then some. If it isnt reported in our Daily News section, it AINT happened yet! From USA, Europe, South Africa, Asia, Australia & South America:

Bob M
(Wed Jul 09 1997 10:25)
...and the slide continues..hang on to your hats, the worst is yet to come...

(Wed Jul 09 1997 10:33)
BASSY TANTALO: Figures I have for 1996 are 588 tons sold by Central Banks and 349 Tons purchased by other Central Banks.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 10:36)
Organ: Stocks and commodities can only go up, down or stay the same. Once a trend is established "contrarians" say it will go the other way. Since gold has been going down for 17 years more or less then it is easy to suggest it will go up and often it does if only for a short period of time. Today being a contrarian seems to mean that you believe gold is going up --just like the last 17 years. So contrarians have been correct occasionally for a short time and a sometimes large profit if they get the leverage right. When gold does actually turn around "at the bottom" all investors and traders will have been contrarians and will have been right.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 10:37)
Mike Shiller:I have been told that July 28th is going to be a special day
astrologically speaking.Could you elaborate what significance,in your
opinion,it has to the market.Thanks

(Wed Jul 09 1997 10:40)
Mike Sheller: sorry for misspelling your name.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 10:41)
THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Feds 262 million oz. Gold at $325)
Why has the U.S. - fountainhead of antigold sentiment - NOT SOLD any of its gold while encouraging its allies to sell?? - Coles Market Insights poignant question:

(Wed Jul 09 1997 10:52)
Hey All,
I'm still holding my Gold stocks, RYO and ECO. If Gold gets down below 310 I'm going to buy more physical. Whether I make money or lose it all I gotta feeling this is going to be one story I'll be telling my grandkids someday. BTW, going to Toronto this afternoon on business. Will be there till Friday noon when I head back to Kansas City. I know there are quite a few Canadians here, so does anyone have any restaurant recomendations, or anything else worth seeing. Never been there before. Good Luck to all.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 10:54)
read this from cnn news,
happy trading....

(Wed Jul 09 1997 10:54)
ROEBEAR.....Was very heavy into slave labor when your poll was called.....My actions....Holding all physicals and stocks...Adding to physicals daily and raising cash daily from sale of other items....Some will go into physicals and some will go to leverage and I for one will be bottom fishing....We are just not there yet, but it is not too far away.....I look for gold below 300 by just a few dollars and silver to whipsaw below 4.......I WILL BE READY !!!!!!!!

(Wed Jul 09 1997 10:58)

(Wed Jul 09 1997 11:15)
ROEBEAR......I will add stocks, options on metals and options on stocks within the next weeks or so....Will also buy options on XAU at around 80 if it gets there right away. Will continue to add physicals and will go to the futures when I think the worm is about to turn or has turned.....Did you see the recommendation Glenn made on gold ????? That is very similar to what I will be doing.....Will give it a little more room than Glenn did and will have about 2/3 silver and 1/3 gold in futures.......

(Wed Jul 09 1997 11:17)
japanese buy over 1 billion worth of bonds today as
reported by cnbc.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 11:17)
ROEBEAR.....Would you say this is aggressive ?????? ...HEH.... HEH.....

(Wed Jul 09 1997 11:22)
The current gold mrkt has the same feeling ( s ) as the Nat gas did in the early 1990's; even the fundamentals are the same. That is, demand being greater than supply for years and dropping prices.

A gas producer and driller

(Wed Jul 09 1997 11:22)
So why does the Dow have a problem rallying when da bondzzzz are doing so well??????

(Wed Jul 09 1997 11:30)
Morphine! Medic!! Morphine!!!

bb fisher
(Wed Jul 09 1997 11:30)
this may seem peripheral at best to the gold discussion we all enjoy on this forum but i suggest it is fundamantal to understanding what is happening in the metals markets...rather in the 'perception' of the metals markets.
over here in the UK the 'new labour' government is going to, in the words of al gore, "reinvent government" to make it more responsive to its citizens and up to date in its use of technology. the tune labour is humming is called "citizen direct". cute isn't it. kinda catchy, sounds very hip and doesn't have any of the centralised bureacratic drudge one normally thinks of when the word government is uttered. the plan not so different from the one in the states is to have citizens view "their" ( i love that usage of the familiar ) government as one would view a business service provider. got that?

welfare state government wants y'all to be their 'customer'. trouble is, an involutary taxpayer is not a customer. if the perception really takes hold in the minds of the public that government is a business and they are its customers then in the words of john perry barlow ( net visonary ) "on the net everything is either local or global, but nothing is national".

do you think in al gores and 'new labour's' rush to reinvent government they will become so bold as to suggest to 'their customers' the NET will enable people
to live where they like, but shop around among world governments comparing tax rates, quality and range of services and security, regard for privacy, and the friendliness of the staff, BEFORE applying for the citizenship of their choice.

for the motivated you can now, for the rest, sooner and easier than you might imagine!

this at heart is what the philosophical turmoil in the
gold market is all about. government is using all its fading ( and it is fading fast ) power holding on to its monopoly over your freedom of choice.

perhaps the first sensible move governments could make would be to reverse rapidly the last few decades of unpleasant centralisation rather than futilely trying to accelerate that trend.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 11:39)
PandA - Please do not taunt or anger the Dow. It will only disappoint
you if you think it is going down any time soon. The Dow climbed 100
points yesterday. Give it a break.

Dow to 10,000 by August 15. Gold to threetwo.five

(Wed Jul 09 1997 11:41)
CHEROKEE: Yesterday there were two important Japanese stories. Can't find them for you today. 7 Japanese banks ( unidentified ) sold their Eurotunnel Bonds to Euro and US institutions at 40-45% of face value. Big losses.
Second story about 14% increase in government insured mortgage defaults in June. Up from another 14% increase in May

(Wed Jul 09 1997 11:45)

july 27 is a muslim holy day. there have been predictions
of an attack on us soil by muslim extremists on one of their
holy days. there are many permutations to this scenatio.

go to stan deyos' web page and read the urgent news sections
for pertinent info.

arab-israeli warfare?

read the us house of represenatives report dated 12-10-96.
it will blow your mind that this is expected, AND overdue!

go to

an exogenic event? flux? chaos? not to worry, they are planning
a BIG party that will bring all the world a little closer---
through conflict.

!; ) scanner-of-the-skies, driver-of-the-ssm.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 09 1997 11:50)
I too have been unable to connect into Kitco for past 24 hrs.
I suspect it may be because of the following Internet Mars Mania
Imagine how the Net will melt when the Dow drops back to 800.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 11:50)
ROEBEAR: For your poll. I added 25% to my Benham Gold fund on D-Day ( Drop-Day ) Sold nothing.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 09 1997 11:56)
Yep, we're cranking the midnight oil again...
Gold shares up a bit today in Australia
I still think the price is going to keep going down. Bob M is right.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 09 1997 12:04)
Precursor to a depression?? Commodities in trouble....

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 09 1997 12:08)
From an industry point of view, Australian Treasurer Peter Costello has done to Gold what he did to the Superannuation ( 401k ) industry, stuffed it up, with total & absolute confusion to go with it!!!

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 09 1997 12:13)
Thailand turns to Japan for foreign loans bailout. Mexico scenario not ruled out.

Bob A
(Wed Jul 09 1997 12:15)
to Roebear
Sorry to say I bought in April and sold only a small amount of SWC since then. I then bot ECO. I'm still holding for the long haul. I will buy more SWC, maybe

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 09 1997 12:18)
Gutnick calls on Reserve Bank of Australia to reverse decision on Gold
Gutnick dares PM John Howard to visit Kalgoorlie. My colleague who works
at Kalgoorlie said one of his mining clients just cancelled an order for
a large piece of mining equipment. It will flow right through. It will
reduce the profits somewhat to Caterpillar ( USA ) with their parts

(Wed Jul 09 1997 12:19)
Conspiricies & Tigers & Bears...oh MY!
This is the land of OZ...

Now what did I miss? Oh is tanking. Hmmmmmmmmmm. Let's wait this out or short the market. Gold at $300 seems quite plausible. I,for one, will be ready for gold to rebound as soon as my GCQ7 opt.'s expire - WORTHLESS! ( this week ) Roebear: I'm still waiting on the sidelines for gold. I have added slightly to my PL. RUSSKIES are said to deliver JULY 12?????? NOT!!!!!!!!

This brings me to another point. OPTIONMAN 19:59 - Are you serious?????????? Selling PL calls...NAKED?? The only great opportunity you will see is the one to put your house up for sale. Your b ) scenario is flawed as well - IMWO,FWIW,IYGAF...AWAY!


Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 09 1997 12:19)
Gutnick calls on Reserve Bank of Australia to reverse decision on Gold
Gutnick dares PM John Howard to visit Kalgoorlie. My colleague who works
at Kalgoorlie said one of his mining clients just cancelled an order for
a large piece of mining equipment. It will flow right through. It will
reduce the profits somewhat to Caterpillar ( USA ) with their parts

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 09 1997 12:22)
Selling forward saves ass....for some Australian Gold Mining Co's

(Wed Jul 09 1997 12:23)
B.B. Fisher: Your comments, yesterday, regarding brokerage house "recommendations" and inventory clearance were much appreciated. They should be repeated more frequently. ..... All too often we get caught in the spin, without looking for the folks what pulled the string - and why.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 12:43)
Tortfeaser, where is Ted? I hope mama did not take his computer away from him. I sure miss his posts. That was a good joke ( big john ) . This is our last day "on the beach" in Hawaii, going home tommorow. Got to get ready for the visit from the grand-kids.

imho japan & china have been told "if you want to sell into the USA, you WILL buy our notes & bonds". That is why President Clinton can chide the Premier of Japan and get away with it.

Hello Reify

(Wed Jul 09 1997 12:45)
International market pundit Milhouse questions common-sense of Australias CB selling 2/3s of gold reserves at historically low prices. He foresees higher inflation & money supply - see Guest Guru Milhouse:

(Wed Jul 09 1997 13:00)
Last night someone here said he's planning to move $25M into a certain fund. Is that $25,000,000? I mean, how big are you guys, anyway? Could you use a chauffeur? Or does $25M mean $25K in US talk?

(Wed Jul 09 1997 13:01)
WheeeOOppps...I hit an air pocket...must be wind sheer
most all cargo dumpted and praying for an updraft. Am
clawing for the sheer cliffs...will staunch the bleeding now.
Have retreated and will fight another day.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 13:08)
Roebear: The scenario of gold moving inversely to Dow has played out well for the last year or so. Expect it to reverse soon. I am lightening up on non-gold stuff and looking for more precious metal stocks to buy.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 13:10)
Lsteve: Try the Scaramouche restaurant. Bring money, Visit in the Skydome, CN tower and the Senator at night for jazz.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 13:16)
Steve Perth 12:19 : Great article, thats what the industry needs, kick around some of the politicos. They are extremly short sighted by these actions, which will eventually lead to serious financial turmoil.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 13:20)
@two weeks
2 weeks: Tortfeasor said 25M

(Wed Jul 09 1997 13:22)
@the scene
Are we having fun yet? The way I view the current gold formation is that if it breaks below current lows, we'll be seeing near 304 Aug basis, Monday A:M. Also possible to see Sep silver closer to 4.0. Gold will have to break above 324 Aug to begin defining an upward move.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 13:34)
STEVE-PERTH: Copper down another 2.5% right now.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 13:36)
@DFW Airport
The most thought provoking post that I have read on this site was
from Amateur, 09:10 yesterday July 8. I would like to see some
comments from Cole,Puetz, RJ and vronsky on this. If any of this
about FED cooperation with Japan on rigging gold prices is even
half truth, then what are we doing here ? We can do nothing but lose.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 13:44)
@where the money go?
OK, stocks down ( except for NASDAQ ) , metals down, looks like everything
goes down. Where does money go? :-o

(Wed Jul 09 1997 13:46)
Warning sounds in London, Economic Mess in France, Recessionary Trend in Australia & Financial Crisis in Far-East, ALL BODE ILL FOR U.S. Stocks. Looming Crash heralds Gold & Silver bull market:

(Wed Jul 09 1997 14:08)
Today's USA Today gold chart looks like Mars horizon:
I'm in for 25M.

Strad Master
(Wed Jul 09 1997 14:21)
RJ: It would seem to me that silver and gold will eventually come up to fill in the downside gap of Monday, at which point the commercialls will short it way down again. The other possibility I see might be an island reversal but that seems less likely since the trend is so clearly down. Since you have your finger also on pulse of the fundamentals, what is your opinion of either scenario? Anyone else care to comment? Thanks.

Strad Master
(Wed Jul 09 1997 14:26)
Kitco...Kitco...Wherefore art thou, Kitco?
BART: Please check into getting a new ISP. Kitco is the only site in my experience that has so many problems. Of course, nothing in life is free, so we all should be grateful and be willing to pay the price of an occasional breakdown. Nevertheless being without access to Kitco for a day is really trying on the psyche. Us metals bugs need all the support we can get right now! Thanks.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 14:46)
MIRO: In a deflation you need to invest in the thing that is going down the least...seriously. I hope that is gold, silver and cash ( or near cash ) . Perhaps said a better way, you invest in purchasing power for the future.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 14:48)
@no fear .. just hand it over
look at money flowing into funds in the last couple of days.
That would explain yesterdays jump but how about today?

(Wed Jul 09 1997 14:49)
Miro--How about...U.S. Savings Bonds? They are adjusted for inflation in that they yield 85% of the five year note. And sure, its government paper but it is a "Family", little time saver vehicle and I would suspect that things would have to get real bad before the guys and gals in DC would think about screwing the "working class" savers.

By the way, who says you have to have your money invested in something at all times. I recall the stories of the First Matress Bank during the last depression.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 14:49)
@...Gold Demand: contrary views between producers and analysts

Sometimes you wonder whether there is a conspiracy against gold. Now the anlaysts are saying the producers are pulling the wool over their eyes on demand statistics.

If you read the key points in the article on world supply and last years demand you have to wonder what the analysts are worried about. We already know that Eastern and Asian jewellry supply is also used as a store of wealth and therefore available to re-enter the market - indeed all jewellry is theoretically available for resale ( ask Russell Oliver of Toronto fame ) . The propaganda against gold is so bad that an analyst identified in the article said he was looking at the recent Cambodian crisis for possible gold supply re-entry into the market ! I appreciate the Cambodians have a good supply of gold invested in temple icons and jewellry but is is that material in relation to the big picture ? I doubt it.

A related article in todays Toronto Star indicated that gold jewellry prices would not drop due to price declines in the gold market since, as one knowledgeable jeweller noted, the gold in a $200 piece of jewellry amounts to only $18 - the bulk of the price is made up of fabrication, labour, administration, profits and taxes.

Perhaps a good deal of jewellry from the East and Asia already has re-entered the market - and this would be a good rationale for the recent three month carnage we witnessed in gold price - does anyone else have a more logical ( non-speculative ) reason for the recent decline in gold price outside of CB dumps ?


(Wed Jul 09 1997 14:55)
Bart : I think your server is run by the same guys that run my ISP here
in Phoenix. They both go down at the same time.

EB: July 12? Last week it was July 10. I was expecting a day or two
before the ship date to be a tough ride - but I never expected this. My
PA is down 26 pts, PL is down 25 pts. Who would of ever thought that
these white metals would trade here without the Russian shipping a steady
supply? I don't think the fat lady sung yet.

Is D.A. still on vacation? What a time to leave.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 15:01)
who called copper as a good short 2 weeks ago?

soybean oil is fixing to blast-off, time to get on-board.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 15:04)
From a fundamental viewpoint: ( todays FP ) Even in 1996, the supply-demand balance had been net sales of 239 tonnes by central banks. These sales, plus scrap recoveries of 644 tonnes, plus significantly reduced forward
hedging amounting to 80 tonnes, helped keep total world supply of 3,309 tonnes ahead of total fabrication demand for 3,290 tonnes...

So the CB selling has only been about 7 % of demand. Even if one assumes a worst case scenario, that gold is completely demonetized, with a permanent drop in demand of 25-30 % due to no more banking use or coin sales, the current price drop will more than account for this as half of the worlds gold mine production has now become uneconomic, with an average production cost of 317$/oz. Gold has to be at the bottom, at most it can only go a little lower on sentiment, irrational pscyology, short selling etc., but even in the near term has to rebound to at least these current levels. I think that it is significant that the 1985 low was 286, based on fundamentals that was about as low as it could have been expected to go. If gold goes any lower at all from here it has to be a temporary short term excess. It would be nice to see the producers act together to force a bit of a short squeeze to stop this phenomena of paper pushing the price of gold down.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 15:17)
@the scene
Uris -- Can't raise rates. Would crash the market. Got to keep 'pushing on the string' or very serious deflation sets in here also. No options left for the Feds. It'll happen anyway. Just consider that everything they are doing is to keep the paper game going as long as possible. They'll manipulate everthing in their power to keep it going. Just be watchful of the day when it stops!

Pizza Man
(Wed Jul 09 1997 15:39)
@ DowngoestheDOW
Roebear: I am keeping my long position in gold, and having some fun shorting the S&P.
Beginners luck has always worked for me so GOLD is going up!
Will Clinton escape scandals forever?

(Wed Jul 09 1997 16:14)
it'll be up to the people Nazi Gold, interesting interview, in Business Week

(Wed Jul 09 1997 16:15)
ok tort, here's some competition----

the horse and the chicken

a horse and a chicken are playing in a meadow.
the horse falls into a mud-hole and is sinking.

he calls to the chicken to go and get the farmer to help
pull him to safety. the chicken runs to the farm but
the farmer can't be found. so he drives the farmers' mercedes
back to the mud hole and ties some rope around the bumper.
he then throws the other end of the rope to his friend the horse,
and drives the car forward saving him from sinking.

a few days later the chicken and the horse were playing in
the meadow again, and the chicken fell into the mud-hole. the chicken yelled to the horse to go and get some help from the farmer.
the horse said "i think i can stand over the hole." so he stretched
over the width of the hole and said, " grab for my thingy and pull
yourself up." and the chicken did, and pulled himself up.

the moral of the story: if you are hung like a horse, you don't
need a mercedes to pick-up chicks!

(Wed Jul 09 1997 16:25)
..RGDS ...

(Wed Jul 09 1997 17:04)
@New England
Per over night desk gold up .60/ silver unch and S&P continuing its recovery up .20.

George Cole
(Wed Jul 09 1997 17:07)
In the latest issue of the Privateer Captain Bill opines that the Clinton Administration may be moving to set up a foreign scapegoat to blame when the bubble bursts. Probably Japan, China, or both. Makes a lot of sense to me. After all if out booming markets ever tank it is got to be someone else's fault. Right!

The bursting of the bubble will change many things in addition to ending the gold bear. It probably will trigger greatly increased friction among the g-7; the U.S and Japan espcially..

(Wed Jul 09 1997 17:09)
@this is a good one!
very few books offer more than what one pays for them.

here is a book ( if you can find it ) that is worth its'
weight in gold. ( it's heavy! )

"How to Acheive Personal and Financial Privacy In A Public Age"

authored by Mark Nestmann

it is an incredible compendium of what the gov't has covertly
managed to take from its' electorate. law after law has been
enacted to deprive YOU of YOUR assets. this book exposes their
ploys, and the LEGAL ways to avoid giving your hard earned dollars
to elected officials for THEIR agendas. these agendas, are THEIR
pork projects for their constituents. proof positive that they
can bring home the bacon.[sic] the pork also helps to get them

this is a must read for most of the regulars on kitco.
time waits for no man.

i submit this for one reason. knowledge is power.
become powerful, and prepare----- with knowledge.

cherokee!; ) chopper-of-the-copper-bulls, sender and receiver
of smoke signals, and friend of the wind whilst warping
around the globe for the good of almost all non-sleepwalkers.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 17:10)
Overnight desk
WW : Can you please post the url for the overnight desk.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 17:14)
@New England
NJ: No url I obtained it over the old fashioned telephone.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 17:16)
MIRO: Bogle of Vanguard, THE most respected fund manager in the business, was on CNBC today, replayed several times, telling people, including his own customers, that they were making a mistake buying Index type funds. He invented the index fund. In the absence of any other news you have to think that some people listened. Also, tomorrow Compaq Computer is going to report earnings. It has been up 25 points in two weeks, the expectations are enormous. Mabye some cautious people think the market will be disappointed with Compaq. A third point, copper is down 6% over two days. Some people think that copper is a leading indicator of the economy. They call it "the metal with a PhD in economics". Old pros take it seriously.

Strad Master
(Wed Jul 09 1997 17:20)
Flux & bean oil
CHEROKEE: Would you be so good as to explain the reasons you think bean oil is going up. I'm curious as to what indicators you are using. Thanks.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 17:28)
My warped way of thinking

George S. Cole: My warped way of thinking say's, if I am to be made a scapegoat; then provide them with a real good reason.
Like buying about 2000 tonnes gold ( for about $20 billion ) on the LBMA. This is well within Japan's capability.
This would surely wake Bob, Allen and Bubba up.

Strad Master
(Wed Jul 09 1997 17:41)
STEVE PUETZ: Profound thanks for taking the time to e-mail me. I really appreciate your response. I have no problem selling an object of value in the face of a looming deflation. My experience with these markets, though, ( which admittidely is short ) is that so many have been calling for defaltion, inflation, collapse, bursting bubbles, etc. for so long without any sign of these things coming to pass. Logic dictates that what goes up MUST eventually come down but I have already paid dearly for mistakes wrought by following doom-'n-gloom scenarios that haven't panned out. I've read all the current crop of dreadful predictors. The works of Rees-Mogg and Davidson, Prechter, Weiss, North, Guarino, etc. are all highly entertaining ( in a perverse sort of way ) but so far they have all been consistently and completely WRONG! Of course, I understand the analogy that if the weather report calls for rain at 1 PM and if by 4 it still hasn't started, yet the sky is darkening more and more - one doesn't then go out without an umbrella. Nevertheless, I'm sure you can relate to my trepidation. Even here on this forum there is no consensus of opinion as to the inflation/deflation scenario. I post this here because I think your answer and the comments of others might be helpful to all. Thanks again for your kind response.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 17:44)
liverpool street, london
JACK: Whose to say Japan has not been buying gold on the QT right along?

(Wed Jul 09 1997 17:50)
ALL: Rumor circulating that Robert Rubin will resign from Treasury post.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 17:50)
george cole--

your latest commentary at vronskys' site is appreciated.

the duration of the last 2 bull phases as you noted:

1st phase lasted 18 months.

2nd phase lasted 9 months.

this 3rd phase has lasted 4.5 months.

is there a correlation between the 3 times frames?
there is a consistent 50% decline, time-wise,
relative to each consecutive bull phase.

is this the method you are using to predict aug as the
end of the current phase? this could hardly be considered
coincidental if the 3rd phase ends at 4.5 months.
if this time-line is accurate, THE END should occur in nov-dec '97?

(Wed Jul 09 1997 17:54)
gmt newsletter---

thanks for reposting your same message over and over!
short-term memory goes right after eye-sight.

put it in barts' url bank, and quit polluting the ether!!!!

(Wed Jul 09 1997 17:56)
I was told that golds 10% rsi had been this low only two other times in history is this true?

fkldj ter90t]08954 tk]qepigqejt
(Wed Jul 09 1997 18:00)
Has anyone noticed that clinton's popularity and gold's price movements are oposites?

(Wed Jul 09 1997 18:03)
@ down but not out
ALL- does anyone know a site for gold & silver option quotes? Thank you!

(Wed Jul 09 1997 18:04)
nomercy -- Notice how the political/religious aspects are immediately brought up! My suspicions were confirmed in the Reuters story that I posted a while ago. My question is, and still remains, where is the gold and why the massive efforts to flush it all out? I think the why is becoming clearer now. ( It's only money, real money that is. )

George S. Cole -- Scape goat? NOOOO! :- ) )
Who would ever do that! ( He said, dripping with sarcasim ) MY, those hearings look familiar, don't they? Kinda 1970ish... :- ) )

(Wed Jul 09 1997 18:05)
@New England
Latest update from overnite phone desk of commodity broker. Gold up .40/ silver up .5 and S&P now down 1.00/ as of 6:04 EDT.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 18:08)
FLKDG: What is an "rsi"?

Bill Buckler
(Wed Jul 09 1997 18:11)
Donald ( Jul 9 17:50 ) Rubin resigning? Rumour circulating where and propagated by whom?

(Wed Jul 09 1997 18:14)
BILL BUCKLER: Reported as a rumor on CNBC at 6pm NY time. They cite it as a possible reason for the stock decline today.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 18:23)
BILL BUCKLER: The correct time of that report was more like 17:48 NY time. I posted it a few minutes after the report.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 18:25)
Tight labor markets reported by Minneapolis Fed;

Well, look at this! Its not just gold that isnt being well received. It seems no one wants TIPs either!

Short term liquidity squeeze in Mexico... No problem!

Euro? Euro! :- ) ) :- ) )

The currencies seem to be gyrating, again. Hmmmm.

As for Rubin leaving Treasury, not unless the Carrier Clintock is sinking! Now that would be the MOTHER of all SELL signals! :- ) )

Option Man
(Wed Jul 09 1997 18:25)
dead serious
Yes EB, I am seriuos. Selling naked calls leaves you no more exposed than shorting the contract. In fact selling naked calls that are $50 out of the money leaves you in a much much less risky situation than if you were to short the contracts. The exposure is the same - you should make a distinction between the two.

It is strictly a volatility play. PL can go up, down, or sideways - I don't care. Volatility will go down , always has, always will. And when it does the option premium will go with it. I have been doing this succesfully for years. Selling volatility works.

When there's none I do nothing. I have given up on trying to guess direction since I'm wrong half of the time.I tend to take profits quickly and let the losses ride and so being right 50% of time is hardly good enough.

The gold-platinum spread play is similar because I'm not trying to guess direction either. The gold/plat ratio fluctuates and right now it happens to be historically wide. It will narrow , I'm just placing my bets on that it'll happen before October. I feel the elements are in place for it to happen, and I don't see a huge downside risk either.

The downside of this strategy is that when there's no volatility and the ratios are "normal" there's nothing for me to trade. Patience is the key.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 18:53) troubles with US
panda...check this one out

Yen to get stronger!!

(Wed Jul 09 1997 18:55)
Dow-Gold Ratio 24.59 at the NY close. Second day of profit. 25.06 remains the 31 year high.

Icicle man
(Wed Jul 09 1997 19:03)
This_is_just_a_spike, I tell ya!
Drip drip drip

George Cole
(Wed Jul 09 1997 19:04)
bull market phasws
Cherokee: I said that I expect the current bull phase to last 4.5 months, half the length of phase 2. And phase 2 lasted half as long as the 18 month phase 1.If the current phase 3 does in fact last 4.5 months, the end will occur in August.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 19:12)
Cole's August??
Favors seems even more emphatic in his latest comments on a possible July top in stocks. Could the gold bottom be far behind??

(Wed Jul 09 1997 19:14)

I am beginning to sense a real sea change going on right now. The hearings in the Senate are starting to look like the real deal. Shades of '73-'74 indeed. Ladies and Gentlemen, may I suggest that you all fasten your seat belts?

(Wed Jul 09 1997 19:20)

Try this. President Gore. Or this. President Gingrich. Or this. Gore resigns, new VP named, then takes over after Clinton resigns.

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Wed Jul 09 1997 19:25)
TO ALL: Service seems to have resumed to normal once again. Our ISP is now directly involved in making some changes specific to the needs of our discussion group. This should hopefully resolve some of the problems.

To Lurker77: The best place for gold,silver, and platinum options is ( you guessed it ) at

To Bill: To be precise 1 troy oz. = 31.10348 grams, so 1 kilo=32.1507 ozs.

To the Newsletter Guy: Thank you for not advertising here.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 19:29)


Do you see the "Engulfing lines Candle Pattern" on the DOW 30 today? My work says it's all over! What's yours say?


(Wed Jul 09 1997 19:35)
The low during the over-night access seccion was $316.2 and the low during the day was 317.30 so no-one was filled on my buy at 315.70. Close but no cigar. When I woke up and heared gold called down $4 I was afraid that everyone would get filled and stopped out all in the same breath. But then again, when you try to buy below the market it needs to scare you for you to get filled. It's a tought calls from here. I hate to jump in early and get killed. I shorted the Aug 310 puts. They expire in two days and are $8 out of the money. To me it seems safe. I'm thinking of shorting the Oct 310 puts. I'm not sure yet if I will.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 19:36)
RLM: Thanks for the Jerry Favors piece. I think he is correct. So do many other respected analysts. That is was gives me the willies. Can there be a time when too many contrarians agree? It certainly feels right... but the market always fools the maximum number of people. I hope that there are more of "them" than "us".

(Wed Jul 09 1997 19:38)
But a very overdue meaningful correction is on the agenda. After all, stock market here is ONLY priced at something like 2.5 times gross world product ( of all nations ) . SEE:

(Wed Jul 09 1997 19:41)
good news
Here's some hope:

Mike Sheller
(Wed Jul 09 1997 19:47)
CYCLIST: I don't know offhand why July 28th will be special to the markets astrologically. Whoever said that would have to give me the configurations they were going by for me to see how I interpreted same. I DID find, in THE ASTROLOGICAL INVESTOR of May 5 ( I think ) at Gold -Eagle, that July would be hot. Lots of potentials. But I don't remember offhand anything about July 28th. Here's an opportunity for everyone to rush over to Gold-Eagle NOW and print out my predictions column 2 postings ago. Then, when I'm wrong, everyone can pan me and I'll take it, I promise. If I'm right, I'll shout obnoxiously as is the custom in recent days. Howz that? I got Saudi Arabia right on the Solstice for the rest of 'em!

(Wed Jul 09 1997 19:50)
GLENN AUAG, or anyone-
Noticed spot gold's close lower than futures, as usual, however the opposite was true for silver- what's the significance?
CHEROKEE-Jokes too, what a talented guy. Keep it up!

(Wed Jul 09 1997 19:53)
Please do not read this if you have a weak heart or other medical conditions. When I was on the floor about one month ago I was talking to another trader who had only been on the floor about two weeks. I commented on the XAU and he said "What's the XAU". At first I looked at him like he had a hole in his head and green slim coming out but I excused the comment as he was new. Today I was talking to a floor trader who has been trading gold on the floor for at least two years about wheather gold was going to continue it's slide or was it over, and I mentioned the COT report and how the commercials were really long. He said "No I haven't seen it, how long are they?. Again I started looking at him like he had a hole in his head with green slim coming out, but excused it because it was delayed this week and maybe he looks at it in barrons on the weekend which will have the report this coming weekend. So I said "Yes they ( The commercials ) are net long about 70,000 contracts". And he said "Is that alot? what's the average?" This time there was no excuse for him. He really did have a hole in his head and there really was green slim coming out. How can you be a trader who only trades Gold and who's sole livelyhood depends on trading gold and not know these's things? I was looking at this weeks COT report as soon as it can out. After this decline we had it was a must. Most of the people on the floor are idiots and anyone in this group who wants to be a trader but doesn't think they are good enought please think again. Most of the people in this group know way more than most people on COMEX abut Gold.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 19:55)
Opening Bell has some interesting comments on Gold @

(Wed Jul 09 1997 19:56)
There is a valid reason why silver closed below the spot price but I'm not sure why. It would be nice to know but don't think it is a leading indicator of any kind.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 20:02)
Bart: I sure hope your ISP has figured a way around US West otherwise
nothing will help. US West - if I didn't know better I would think
the communists ran the place. The laughing stock of the telecomm industry.

Bassy Tantalo
(Wed Jul 09 1997 20:06)
GEORGE COLE: I missed the rational you used to predict the end of the bull market in August. I think the bull will snap about a month after the capital gains ( CG ) tax reduction in the US is passed and bonafide. I think you will see a big sell off in equities and investors will then turn to gold in droves. ( I HOPE!!! ) I don't buy in to the notion that investors will actually buy more stock because of a CG tax reduction. With the increase in wealth generated from the sell off in shares, inflation will also take off. What do you guys think?

(Wed Jul 09 1997 20:10)
@...more contrary indicators
Another inflation obituary favouring govt paper:

(Wed Jul 09 1997 20:15)
@in hiding
Comrade Kuston: Ve haf your name noted.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 20:28)
Front: I don't think I would bet the farm on that today's engulfing bar. It needs a couple of more days to build confidence in it. There was a 'beaut' 11 trading days ago - late June. It resolved to the upside. Given additional bars like last week March of '94, it might be time to call Rydex Ursa. ..... Additionally, it would only indicate a trend change. Not necessarily a move down. In short it needs more confirmation. T'would be nice though, if it develops into something more ominous. ..... We have paid our dues. It's now time to scare the crap out of the yuppie dippers.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Jul 09 1997 20:30)
CYCLIST ( & other astro-nauts ) I did find a mention I made in THE ASTROLOGICAL INVESTOR prediction post that was as follows: ( Concerning Iran ) 'Watch late July for clues when Mars conjuncts Iran's Pluto at 19 Libra ( this could be explosive ) ." Sort of jibes with Cherokee's take on bad vibes from the middle east. Another interesting demonstration of how astrology really works ( subtle, lads, subtle ) is the following from the same post: Re BillClinton - "That ol' devil Mars lines up with his natal Mars/Neptune conjunction at 6 Libra the first week of July." Now I would point out here that China's SUN is at 7 Libra, right alongside Clinton's Mars/Neptune combo a scant degree away. In astrology, this is almost an exact conjunction. The first week of July has seen a NEW facet of the campaign finance scandal emerge - a concerted, choreographed effort by China to influence the US elections. How much did Clinton know about this, and how complicit was he? The investigation is focussing on Congressional level activity, but can the executive be far behind? Does any Kitcoite think there could be a potential danger for Clinton that the elections will be deemed illegal, improper, and void? Is this an extreme possibility, or what? Any thoughts? While certainly in no way admissable in "court," to an astrologer this configuration practically shouts "Clinton in bed with China!"

(Wed Jul 09 1997 20:30)
I spent the afternoon driving around Scotsdale - I visited the local
gold company ( T.EMC ) and stopped into a few coin dealers. The biggest
news I could find was that no one is selling coins in Scotsdale. Also
that Platinum has been backordered for 2 weeks and their is none in
the stores. One more thing - MS64 double eagles are asking $675!!!
fine double eagles are $425. I guess no one in Scotsdale knows the
price of gold fell in the last month.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 20:31)
@ the golden moment ????
To All : The news will be delayed , we are buying.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 20:35)
KGB - I'm sorry. I didn't mean to associate you with such a scumbag as
US West. I was referring to your old cold-war image of course, now
we know better. By the way - if you could hold on to some that pretty
white metal for another few weeks it would be appricated.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 20:46)
MIKE SHELLER: Elections declared void? Absolutely, positively NO. Articles of Impeachment would be the legal and proper way to respond to such an event. The response of the markets would be extremely negative.

KUSTON: I have been involved in gold coins for a long time. More than 30 years. Double Eagles 1849-1906 have always comanded a premium over spot. St Gaudens 1907-1933 an even greater premium. The premium fluctuates with spot, but is always there.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 21:20)
@in Hiding
COMRADE KUSTON: VAT! PLATINUM TRUK NOT ARRIVED! Must be problem caused by Midnight Sun melted permafrost on Glorious Peoples Tundra Highvay #1. Please privide Vesa Kard # for heliocpter fuel and vill search begin. ( Be sure to include the expiration date. )

(Wed Jul 09 1997 21:35)

Glenn -

Usually, when spot price crosses futures, it can be a preliminary signal of a trend change. Is that a confirmed cross-over you found in silver? This could be the start of something new..............

(Wed Jul 09 1997 21:51)
EBN has gold up, dollar down across the board and global bonds down. A beginning of a sea change in direction?

(Wed Jul 09 1997 21:53)

I have just created this long term chart of the Dow Jones Industrials and have discovered a very interesting fact.

As you all can see the 1985/87 channel when extended into the future is just now intersecting the 1995/97 channel. The light blue line is the upper channel boundary ( yellow in the 1995/97 time frame, grey the bottom of the channel, the red line the top of the channel throw-over, purple the bottom of the 1987 correction.

If I'm right we may be running into a bit of resistance soon, if not an outright top. Look at the 1995/97 time frame. Right now we are in a channel throw-over just like in 1987. Not only that but we have also entered into the 1985/87 channel extension.

What does it all mean? Honestly, I don't know ( I'm not Nostradamus ) but I'm sure we are running into some kind of focal point resistance. Unfortunately my database does not go back far enough to correlate the pre-1929 period. Perhaps someone out there can look into this.

I also had a look at the 1970-1980+ period for gold and the channel extension seems to work quit well on that chart as well ( sorry I don't have a screen dump of that, only on papyrus ) . There was a bit of congestion at the channel intersection too, but in the case of gold the price spiked briefly beyond it ( the blow-off phase ) but crashed right back to the channel extension.

Any thoughts on my interpretation by anyone of you jedi masters?!

(Wed Jul 09 1997 21:54)
Gold Blues
I am soooooooooooo short. Gold to $300. Let it go to $335, good! Ill sell it into a black hole. Goldbugs leave you emotions out of it, gold will continue its grim slide into disfavor and ill repute. Some are talking of using there gold for fishing lures; it sure shines a lot, and boy does it sink. I traded all my personal gold today for a John Lee Hooker CD and a half pack of gum. I do have some guilt about taking advantage of such a trade, but I ran into one of those sad fellows whose eyes grow large at the sight of gold. Screw him, he will soon lean that JLH gets you through times of low gold better than low gold gets you through times of no JLH.

Gold Owners Blues - simple 12 bar blues. Add your own riffs:

OOOOOHHH, I woke up this mornin
Had an achein in my head.
When I woke up this mornin
All my gold was dead.
Now Im a poor man
All my money gone away.
Oh my life was swimmin fine
Till I woke up today.

Ya know my mama always tol me
Boy beware whats shinin bright
Yes my mama always tol me
Keep yo wallet close an tight
But I never heard my mama
Dont know where Ill sleep tonight.


(Wed Jul 09 1997 21:55)
Bob @20:10 --You posted the story before I did! Now, the question is this;

...According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York -- where gold is stored for some 50 to 60 central banks other than the U.S., the number of gold bars in its vault has dropped to about 700,000 today from 900,000 10 years ago.

Where did the gold go? It's the same question I seem to be asking myself all the time lately. Who is accumulating it? Martians? All of this worthless yellow junk must be going somewhere, right?

(Wed Jul 09 1997 22:02)
ET -- Nice chart.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 22:04)
I guess we ran into some of Cherokees' flux and doom..... earthquake epicenter 30 miles away at Richter 6.5. Lots of buildings fell ( thank god not ours, on the ninth floor of an 18 story highrise ) . Electricity just came back on about 10 minutes ago. We'll see what happened when the dust clears tomorrow.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 22:07)
Cmax: Watch out for those aftershocks.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 22:08)
@ Home again
TIM @ Lawlibrary, your Jul 01 14:42. Many thanks for reply to my question concerning Comex' power to declare Market emergency.

Please accept my apologies for not thanking you before. I have been in transit and now back in the Antipodes and have not managed to access Kitco for some days.

Also note that the Net seems to be very slow recently, perhaps the millions who are looking at the Martian landscape are responsible.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 22:16)
RJ: What does JLH mean, excuse my ignorance. With the commercials buying like crazy and the shorts shorting like crazy when will the squeez start? Never? I don't believe it! Like the poem!

Lan Man
(Wed Jul 09 1997 22:18)
To: BillD ( troubles with US):
About 4 months or so ago I went out pricing a Mitsubishi 3000GT - figuring that with a very weak yen that a bargain could be picked up. Lo and behold, the salesman at the dealership stated that they don't change the price of their cars just because of some "currency thing." No I asked? After all, the value of the yen has dropped in value by 50% in just 2 years. My US$ should be able to purchase 50% more, correct? He mumbled something about getting a life.

So, is the dealership and/or the mfg pocketing the difference or what? Where is this so called increased purchasing power that I'm supposed to have...

(Wed Jul 09 1997 22:19)
ALL.....Can't get decent phone line connection tonight....Anybody else ??

(Wed Jul 09 1997 22:24)
the ether is crackling with errant smoke signals.
almost all of the pundits are saying----

"these are the best of times." ( styx )

these "have been" the best of times for the paper-tigers.
yes, there is no doubt. look at the charts. almost vertical
to the nth degree. is this a natural occurance? look at nature.
does anything fore-go the pendulum? CAN anything avoid change? change
can be delayed, but only at an enormous premium.
nothing can stop the pendulum from in-exorably righting any, and all
imbalances. it can only be delayed. what will the repercussions be?
everything will be amplified.

fellow goldbugs, be assured, we are on the right side of the fence!
the pain and loss of investment capital will be healed with a salve
of financial security we could never have dreamed of! we will rule
the roost. having been trod on for so long, we shall not trod, we
shall stomp holes in the paper-tigers and their taskmasters.

our day is at hand--arise and celebrate the righting of a wrong----

gold back in control, as history has shown it has always been.

such energy! wow----i mean how, kemosabe.

cherokee!; ) rider of the wave of life, surfer of the ether, and
bud to the mud---AND hoarder of gold and silver for the betterment
of mankind.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 22:26)
Australian PM Howard's defense of the Aussie Reserve Bank sale of gold and his bearish comments about au gives this gold bug something to be optimistic about. Both Howard and hi central bank have proven that there is a dearth of above average IQ individuals in Oz gov and finance. These idiots may have savaged their second leading export,wracked havoc with their financial markets and caused a plunge in the $aussie.
If they have proven by their actions that they are fools, then I take solace in the hope that they are dead wrong on gold. LET THE RALLY BEGIN.
p.s. I take this seriously, sice i am heavily invested in Oz mining.
Wouldnt it be sweet revenge if Gold went to $500 per ounce ( US ) and the Aussie gold producers contriuted 25% of their profits to oust this man.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 22:32)
Lan Man -- It's all paper, supply and demand doesn't matter anymore! Just bytes in a bit bucket.

FWIW column, I got a response from the folks that make the UPS ( uninterruptable power supply ) that I just bought that is supposed to 'talk' to my PC via a serial port using TCP/IP protocol. Well, either the serial link to the UPS works and Netscape doesn't or Netscape works and the UPS link doesn't. The response, "Ya, we have that problem too. Do you know a way around it?"

Glenn AUAG -- It's not only gold, XAU, COT.... It's everything, I think they call it, 'Dumbing down'. How long did it take for Rome to fall?

(Wed Jul 09 1997 22:41)
Numbers, numbers.

Thursday July 10:
( 8:30 a.m. ) Jobless Claims - week ending 07/05

Has anybody seen my palladium from Russia yet?

Friday July 11:
( 8:30 a.m. ) PPI - June PPI ex. food and energy - June

(Wed Jul 09 1997 22:47)
There's nothing like a definite maybe. Errr, I mean, ya da palladium vill be dar.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 22:50)
@slowwwww here
Good night all. I just can't wait to see how much gold will drop during the over night.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 22:50)
@Mike Sheller Any Help Possible?
In checking out the "Spirit of Truth" web page ( ) noticed the astrological chart - any idea what it says?

(Wed Jul 09 1997 22:56)
Ain't nothin' but the blues
Goldbug Omega - JLH = John Lee Hooker, Grand Master of the Blues

(Wed Jul 09 1997 23:03)
New tech and the company who is forefront in this tech is calibrating
this baby to find GOLD and Base Metals and lots of it, commonly known as THE PROBE. Check out who's using this tech and has been using it since
the U2 and that's not the Band!!
&/or shes gradually coming down
the pipe and news will be out shortly!!

(Wed Jul 09 1997 23:10)
RJ...Sorry, but JLH should be spelled ZZZZZZZZzzzzzz...... ; )

I still can't believe there aren't any Parrotheads in this group!

O.K., I'll crawl back to my hammock...

(Wed Jul 09 1997 23:10)
TO ALL What a response to the poll! I would love to collate all but I did not poll my own schedule; 12+ hour days through Sunday. I read everyone's comments and thank them for their frank assessments. I wish time and the posting problems would have allowed a reply to each. Nevertheless, I believe sharing our positions on this forum allowed each of us a snapshot of reality at an important point in time. We all represent a large portion of the PM market in our little corners of the world. Biased, no doubt, but poignant!
BTW A small moment of time, a days comments condensed into a hour or so of reading and reflection. A moment, win or lose in the markets, I will never forget. You guys ( and gals ) are the best!

(Wed Jul 09 1997 23:16)
Cheerokee ( sic ) : The balloon will bust when the Mid-east erupts, or China moves on Taiwan, or whatever, or the spike will just turn over from its own weight. But bust it will, sooner or later, that we know.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 23:18)
Diehard Goldbugs
Why, in the face of constant disappointment, do so many cling to the belief gold is just around the corner from a major upswing? Will you keep repeating this mantra until it is true? What is wrong with admitting that gold will spend the next year or so in the doldrums. I can only assume one of two things. Either you wouldnt recognize a bear if it bit you in the ass, or you have no $ riding on all this talk. I tend to believe the latter, for if the former is so, you would have sold your computer into hock long ago. What is so wrong with gold going to $275, $250? Please do not bring up the cost of production. Close all the mines today, and there is a 30 year supply sitting in bank vaults all of the world. When gold hits $300, buy all you can. Continue this strategy until gold turns around. Im sure you will be the first to proudly show your meager ounces bought at the bottom, leaving unmentioned the vast majority of you ounces bought at much higher. Do your self a favor, give it a rest. If gold makes a bit of a rally, watch it go, leave it be. When gold drops again, wait. You will have plenty of chances to buy it lower. Or continue your endless droning about imminent economic collapse. Why such an enormous investment in convincing others that calamity is at hand? How many years have you been singing that shrill tune? Meanwhile, Ill continue to treat gold for exactly what it is, a commodity. Look it up.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 23:20)
KGB - Sorry for the delay, but the phone line just started working again, that last post must of did it. BTW, no need to look for that
truck. They think they spotted in in Japan, I think it is empty.

(Wed Jul 09 1997 23:20)
really enjoy your comments and trading style.
Thanks.Would you please send me your e mail?

(Wed Jul 09 1997 23:21)
Love that girl
Mooney- Just listened to the new Sarah Mclachlan it's called Surfacing, now I know talent comes from God and a Canadian ,I must be in love Sorry still busy to talk but free time around the corner .Happy Trails

(Wed Jul 09 1997 23:25)
Hey Gunrunner - Did you get my e-mail? Got some sort of gobbledygook confirmation, I'm not sure if it got through?