Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Wed Jul 16 1997 00:00)
Skylark - Their case for a claim to the gold concessions was ruled inadmissible due to the statute of limitations. Their case for a claim to the copper concessions was ruled admissible.

John Disney
(Wed Jul 16 1997 00:00)
For DJ - wooops - the preceeding was in response to your inspired
"unusual suspects" - Do you sometimes write scripts for Oliver Stone??

(Wed Jul 16 1997 00:02)
It does not take a Brookings institute study to know that
it will require a gold standard in Europe to make a Euro
dollar possible. Or a guru either. Multi-tier paper money
and wire transferes would melt the wires to say nothing
of y2k problem. :- )

(Wed Jul 16 1997 00:06)
Small Canadian company stakes land in the USA under a 19th century law and picks up one of the nations largest Gold areas for song and dance.
The deal goes through because the law is the law, after each political
representative resigns or leaves in disgrace ( left position to female scapegoat ) each person recieves posts in the small company that makes
it big because of its prowness?? Mulhoney gets a signing bonus of 200,000
shares of Monkman's ( American Barrick ) dig the first name of the company,
maybe that is a token position for this Canadian company to make it look good in the good ol USA. Please people wake up before you lose the real
truths of who behind the GOLD demise or shall I say you're just a bunch of all day suckers!! GOLD RULES FOOLS!!

itsy bitsy trader
(Wed Jul 16 1997 00:09)
@water spout
Telecaster ( regarding your post ) : by the way, this comment is from a PDG cheerleader. see comments below:

Skylark - Their case for a claim to the gold concessions was ruled inadmissible due to the statute of limitations. Their case for a claim to the copper concessions was ruled admissible.

The gold concessions were outside the jurisdiction of Judge Acura based on time limitations. They can, and will, be included in the CSJ in VEN ( who ruled in KRY's favor in all related matters ... same 5 judges, too ) .

I guess you believe the PDG spokesman that KRY would have rights to the copper in the ground but not the gold. That's an interesting concept.

Really getting some rest now. Don't want to miss all the fun tomorrow.


itsy bitsy spider
(Wed Jul 16 1997 00:14)
@water spout
One more thing on KRY and PDG ( the lighter side ) :

If you are to believe the PDG IR ... and KRY may only end up with the copper concessions and not the gold ( I guess they will be digging side by side ) , maybe that's not such a bad thing given the current environment for gold. : )

(Wed Jul 16 1997 00:17)
GFD @20:43: ( Still trying to catch up ) ..... If left to their own devices, the central banks of the world would very likely remonetize gold. Unfortunately, it is not their call to make. They exist as little more than the handmaidens of political and commercial interests. Such an action would impose a level of fiscal and commercial discipline totally unacceptable to each party both jointly and severally. Could either of these august and revered bodies exist in their present, corpulent state, without the gratuitous effects of humongous debt??? Remonetization??? Not without a cleansing agent. ie, national bankruptcy, insurrection, general revolt and etc.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 00:32)
IBT - Here you have it from KRY's own lawyer. Only the copper concessions were annuled in 1996. The gold concessions were annuled years earlier. Funny how he doesn't have a damn thing to say about those. Tell me who is doing the spinning.

"The Court accepted all our actions against the resolutions of the Energy and Mines Ministry in 1996 which affected our rights," Ricardo Cottin, an attorney for Crystallex in Caracas told Reuters in a brief telephone interview.

John Disney
(Wed Jul 16 1997 00:33)
For All
What is happening on the lease rate - The One month
is about double what it normally is - will some of you
guys that understand the dynamics of forward selling,
leasing from CB etc etc etc - please comment. Looks like
somebody somewhere is paying MORE for gold than they
used to - Am I being stupid ??

For Savage-
Re Durban deep - Its long odds and the MOST marginal
bet. Some considerations follow -

1. Their results will be out in a few weeks - They
must be in big loss - Their costs are somewhere around
350 before capex. We'll know more soon.
2. They have a project to increase production and
lower cost which will come on in the September quarter.
3. Their deal to incorporate blyvoor and buffels seems
to have come unglued for the time being - If they can
pull that off it will be very good for them BUT they
will have to give up more stock I believe ( if they can
make the deal fly at all ) .
4. As I have said many times - their reserves are so
cheap at the present price that its simply silly.

All the above notwithstanding, the last time I
looked at the chart, it looked to me like as low as
10 rand might be coming. ( say $2.5 on the ADR - am I
being greedy?? ) . Moreover, at 250$ gold the mine
must be a basket case - a certain closer - its small
production anyway.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 00:43)
Vieserre @22:45: Political expediency, preordains and ultimately demands, competitive devaluations. It is nothing more than projecting bankrupt domestic policy to the international scene. Presently, we are bearing unwilling witness to the final act. It's called "beggar thy neighbor". In double time.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 00:53)
@lease rates
John Disney - My understanding is that we may be seeing a deviation from the status quo due to the fact that The Australian CB was active in leasing the metal. As they were selling off the bullion, they had to cease renewing leases as they expired.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 00:58)
Bob M: Can you be more specific. Many of us labor under the assumption that the US gold reserve cannot be sold. ...... Did someone attach a rescinding rider unto a congressional pay raise of some sort?

(Wed Jul 16 1997 01:15)
Women and children first ?

I had wondered how shorts might "short" a mutual fund ( since there are more mutual funds now than stocks ) and apparently they have found a way to hit the funds where it hurts. What the process is, is to find a fund that has NAVS that have diminished ( like most Gold funds these days ) and note which fund has had the highest redemptions lately and find out exactly what stocks the funds have in their portfolio. Knowing that when the owners of the mutuals funds get a bit scared, they will want to redeem their monies, the shorts "short" the stocks in the fund to cause it to become self feeding. In other words, start the price downwards by causing the stocks in the fund to be less through shorting, some of the customers get worried and redeem, forcing the fund to sell quicker and oftener in order to have the cash to meet the redemptions which causes the prices to go down further which causes even more people to ask for redemptions. In otherwords, a "run" on a fund. They're letting the fear of a fall cause a fall and become self-fulfilling. Is this what will happen when Gold drops through its next support level ( from 300 to 299? ) or if the CB's even thinks out loud ( in a whisper ) of dumping a bit of Gold? We could all be hoping for an increase up to $250 from lower levels in the future if fear ever takes hold. There are an awful lot of mutual funds out there with jittery owners and it really wouldn't take much to cause a "me first" attitutde! Just a thought ....


(Wed Jul 16 1997 01:19)
gold sales
RJ... There are limited gold sales of US gold made by the US mint to sell American Eagles. It was approved by Congress in 1985 ( I believe that is the year. ) I'm sure the volume is not much.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 01:22)
Front: "Just a thought .... " .... Perish it. ..... ( :- )

(Wed Jul 16 1997 01:49)

To all: Any comments about Latin America? Brazil stock market dropped about 10% yesterday.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 02:03)
telecaster @ 00:53 - Good Point!

(Wed Jul 16 1997 02:20)
Moonstep@Earl.and .the cherokee.followers
Earl - Disquietingly meaningful as per usual.
cherokee - "When distant and unfamiliar and complex things are communicated to
great masses of people, the truth suffers a considerable and often a
radical distortion." -------- Walter Lippmann

(Wed Jul 16 1997 02:21)
@Latin America

Click here for story on Brazil stock market.

bb fisher
(Wed Jul 16 1997 02:22)

writes quite accurately that one of the primary functions of central banks most everywhere is to maintain liquidity and stability in their respective "national" financial systems. he is also quite right in recognizing that 'systemic risk' is rising and the central banks appear to be running to play catchup.... putting the fires out once they begin. whether it is billion doallr hedge funds or fairy tale political policies which aggravate unemployment the global financial system seems to lurch from one problem ( err challenge ) to another.

the key to all of these incipient and latent crises can be found in the now dying concept of "national". with the advent of micro tech, the internet, borderless capital flows, no exchange controls, trans national corporations, trans national hedge funds, investors of all stripes increasingly 'globalised in their investments the ability of both central banks individually and in concert to stage manage the monetary system successfully has been undergoing radical devolution for 3 decades. only now, is it beginning to show visibly to all. quite simply in this new instant electronic world and on the internet "everything is either local or global, but NOTHING is national".

monetary nationalism is rapidly fading away while at the same time ethnic nationalism is rapidly rising. the political correctness movement everywhere in the west is an attempt to buy peace within multi ethnic regimes a while longer while the financial keys to the kingdom are no longer within any one governments possession.

where this will all lead is anyones best guess. one thing is for certain however, the industrial age is over and with it will go most of the inflexible dinosaur like institutions created by it. whether the central banks make it beyond the first quarter of the new century is not by any means a sure thing.

systemic risk is rising and going to continue to rise as information technology continues to ever more rapidly erode all kinds of industrial age monopolies in monetary policy, political policy and soon most importantly in the definition of money itself.

the current highly restrictive US government policy on robust encryption is the essence of what i am talking about. without powerful "private" encryption technology business will not migrate to the net. banking will become increasingly insecure in years ahead as more and more of what we save and spend becomes digital. the other side of the cryptographic coin is more worrisome for the state, once robust systems are in place the ability of any government will drop to NIL in their ability to assess the money flows. who has it, where its going and from whom did it come from. shortly after this even who defines money will change. right now it is nation states and their captive central banks who define it, control it and seek to quantify it. once distributed encrypted digital money becomes commonplace all taxes beyond those levied on consumption will be for lack of a better word "voluntary".

does anyone seriously think the information revolution now well underway will change the way we work, the way we live. the way we communicate, and NOT change the way we perceive money... the most important concept in any distributed economic system?

systemic risk is only just getting started as the glue which holds every national government together is dissovled in the years just ahead.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 02:36)

bb fisher-Your post of 02:22 is as thought provoking as that chart of the Dow 1919-1932 vs 1987-1997, which you posted 24 hours ago.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 03:07)
One of these days people will look at the financial markets and realize;

(Wed Jul 16 1997 03:26)
To all,
One of the great hints in recent news,please read this:
HEAVY GOLD LENDING.........very shooooort....
any comments?

(Wed Jul 16 1997 03:36)
John 16:23 : Please do not take this personnally, I mean you no
disrespect but I believe you must be new at this internet thing. Have
you thought about the number of people you reach when you post? Respect?
It is earned, not requested - this is the net! Your posts of the last
few weeks have immortalized the name "hepcat" on the net. It doesn't
matter if you like it or not - this is the net!!

I've stated this in the past and will continue to, it is vital everyone
think about thier future and plan accordingly. We are at the edge of
a new frontier - it will be the most exciting time in history for those
that prepare. It will be like the darkages for those that don't.
Technology is changing everything - one example is communication skills.
Person to person communication skills are not the same as net
communication skills. What you type/say can be forwarded, saved, read
unlimited times. Everyone will relearn alot of things if they don't want
to get left behind.

As for the "hepcat" thing - don't sweat it, things are changing so fast
no one will remember it once you make a few "un"hepcat like posts - this
is the net!!

(Wed Jul 16 1997 03:55)
Russia supplies the world with how much Platinum?
a ) 60%
b ) 20%
c ) 75%
d ) ZERO, it as been thieved and blackmarketed to the Haas family.
e ) anybodies guess

(Wed Jul 16 1997 04:00)
I don't know but the large, robust lady has been practicing her scales.

away...doe rae me fa so la te doe!


(Wed Jul 16 1997 04:06)
I did read somewhere...
that russia supplies 20% of the world platinum and 60% of palladium...for all those that did not know this.

going AWAY now


(Wed Jul 16 1997 04:16)
Steve: Your post Jul 15 1997 11:07 containing the comment "Any Jews in Barrick?" What message are you trying to convey with this comment? It adds nothing to the debate and does not befit someone who is, as I believe you are, a member of the WA Liberal Party.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 05:00)
@take stock
All- don't know why the sudden bearishness on the part of many that have ridden this market down. Sure some of the pros, like RJ, have given warnings, but the long term basics, which all are familiar with haven't changed. Would having been in Tech stocks, or some others that have gone up with the market's phenominal rise, have been a better investment over the last 18 months, no question. But taking stock here and now, as George S. has said before, we're closer to the bottom and a turn in the PMs, and now is not the time to panic.

When so many shorts in gold, and so much public hype in the news, is so evident, we must be near a major turn. This is how it's always been.
Whether one looks at charts, or studies fundamentals, it adds up to the same scenario. Nothing lasts forever. As it's been said those heavily on the short side are going to get uncomfortable with not making money fast enough, and will suddenly find themselves on the wrong side of the market. This will also be true of the stock markets, worldwide. The crowd, masses, are always wrong at major turns.

The turn may be or may not be at hand. Possibly some more could be squeezed out of stocks, or shorting gold, but I for one don't think trying is the prudent way to go.

As I've said before, I have a lot of respect for the RJs, but longer term I'll have to stick to my own decisions.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 05:00)
@take stock
All- don't know why the sudden bearishness on the part of many that have ridden this market down. Sure some of the pros, like RJ, have given warnings, but the long term basics, which all are familiar with haven't changed. Would having been in Tech stocks, or some others that have gone up with the market's phenominal rise, have been a better investment over the last 18 months, no question. But taking stock here and now, as George S. has said before, we're closer to the bottom and a turn in the PMs, and now is not the time to panic.

When so many shorts in gold, and so much public hype in the news, is so evident, we must be near a major turn. This is how it's always been.
Whether one looks at charts, or studies fundamentals, it adds up to the same scenario. Nothing lasts forever. As it's been said those heavily on the short side are going to get uncomfortable with not making money fast enough, and will suddenly find themselves on the wrong side of the market. This will also be true of the stock markets, worldwide. The crowd, masses, are always wrong at major turns.

The turn may be or may not be at hand. Possibly some more could be squeezed out of stocks, or shorting gold, but I for one don't think trying is the prudent way to go.

As I've said before, I have a lot of respect for the RJs, but longer term I'll have to stick to my own decisions.

George Cole
(Wed Jul 16 1997 05:40)
gold up
August gold now UP $1.50 after being down sharply most of the night. Things are getting interesting.

George Cole
(Wed Jul 16 1997 05:42)
gold up
August gold now UP $1.50 after being down sharply most of the night. Things are getting interesting.

George Cole
(Wed Jul 16 1997 05:48)
market reversals
REIFY: Amen! The markets will be making major LONG-TERM reversals in August -- bear to bull for gold and bull to bear for stocks.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 05:54)
VIESERRE: Re Currency Devaluations posted at 22:45. Your analysis is absolutely correct. Let me add my thoughts on some future developments on the increasing value of the dollar. Soon you will be hearing from U.S. exporters, usually automakers take the lead, complaining that they can not compete with the dollar at these levels. That exact situation occurred in October, 1987. On the 16th of October 1987 then Secretary of the Treasury, James Baker, made some sympathetic remarks about the complaints of the automobile manufacturers. Those remarks are credited with triggering the 1987 stock market crash.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 06:52)
This cute, one player can move the gold price in the U.S.? I wonder who it is?

(Wed Jul 16 1997 07:02)
@Port Credit
Selby: Thanks for the info on rhodium. I'd checked Bart's charts yesterday and found the rhodium one remarkable...reached $5,500/oz. in early 1991 and fell off to its current level. I've not read who "producers" are or what their potential for investing in is. If we think gold has dropped, the rhodium price collapse eclipses it and must have been especially painful.

Ted: Where are ya?

I'm gone.....

(Wed Jul 16 1997 07:06)
Reify: I am one of a very few puffing tech stocks that I know of here, so I will assume some responsibility for causing your comments about bearishness on gold. Over the past 18 months ( or years ) , gold has been a terrible investment and a good trade only for the shorts. I don't have the skills to short, so I only trade long on stocks and funds and coins. Having said that, I eagerly await a bull market in gold. I have picked my stocks and funds and will move into them if and when gold recovers. RJ and others have helped remind me to separate my emotions from my decisions and I am making money again. Does that make me a bear? Perhaps we should define terms and include with bull and bear the notion of gold fan. A fan is someone who cheers for his team even when behind by 40 points. Anybody who has bought and held gold as an investment has taken a real thumping for a long time. I have some coins purchased when gold was $400/oz. It will be quite some time before they can be sold at a profit. Why not make money on techs or oils or anything else and move into gold when it becomes profitable? I am bullish on profit. The real winners in this game will be the ones who have correctly stayed invested in stocks for the last 5 years and who then move to gold when and if it takes off again. George Cole has my attention focused on August. If his thinking is correct, then I'll be bullish on gold again soon.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 07:11)
Wall Street Journal story today, page A18 my edition. Gold fall worries Ghana. Gold earnings are $612.4 million, 41% of total exports.

Same page, Brazil currency turmoil story.

Bob A
(Wed Jul 16 1997 07:14)
to Speed
Any thoughts on LSI ?

(Wed Jul 16 1997 07:49)
Wall Street Journal, lead editorial is on devaluations. "Devaluations will not mark the end of this world, but there will be a price to pay for the fact that it is now a bit shakier than it was before." Two major stories about Asia devaluations, bad loans, Japan problems, all generally gloomy.

Also: Story about Golden Rule Resources, possible salting of samples.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 07:53)
Bob A.: If they use gold at any stage of manufacture then we might get away with discussing them here. Otherwise, my email address is correct. Gold used in computer components is largely lost to the market. Old pcs are handed down to schools and other charitable organizations or else junked. I have no idea what quantities are thus deleted from the market.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 08:03)

Your musings are dead on and key to scenario. We are indeed in the competitive currency devaluation phase. In terms of economic growth this is of coarse a zero sum game. All that happens is that production is shifted around the world to the low currency bidder. At first look one might believe that the process is deflationary because people are competing to fill orders at lower prices, however, once the game has run full cycle and everyone has got back to their original relationships all one is left with is more paper and the same amount of goods. This is inflation. As my brother commented to me the other day, it appears we are headed for a worldwide Weimer Republic. Lets hope the political implications are not the same.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 08:07)
SPEED: August seems to far away. Stocks are soaring in Europe this AM, if that carries to the US we could close at 8100 today. It seems like a blowoff right now. Yesterday I thought that Compaq had peaked. It couldn't keep up with the rest of the tech's. Intel after hours was up another 3, a total of 6 for the day. How can it last at that pace? Something has to give.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 08:13)
North Korea....
Panda...there was a quick "blurb" on NPR this morning...something about N. Korea firing artillery shells into S. Korea...but the news is SPARCE.

Have you ( or anybody ) got the scoop??

(Wed Jul 16 1997 08:14)
Sounds like space-talk...sparce = sparse!!

(Wed Jul 16 1997 08:16)
Donald: August is only two weeks away! Party on dude! Dow up, techs way up, gold ( this morning ) up! Unless you are the designated driver, join the irrationally exuberant. Yes there will be a morning after and one whopper of a hangover, but not today.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 08:18)

If it is indeed one player who is trying to get the gold market down it would appear that he has run into a bigger fish. The week before last when the real fun began on the July 3 NY close, I reported that my trading desk saw all the selling coming out of one house. That time the game was successful as the ensuing panic got the market all the way down to 314. Yesterdays attack has failed badly.

RJ: You once posted that you 'knew' gold was going down because you kicked it and nothing happened. It appears that someone has tried to kick it down pretty hard and all they have succeeded in doing is getting something to snort a little. Hope your trigger finger is quick. What was that movie, "The Quick and the Dead".

(Wed Jul 16 1997 08:19)
EBN gold up 2.80? Are my eyes deceiving me? A few shots and devaluations and are we getting a gold reaction? Have times changed?
Ingotwetrust this morning!

(Wed Jul 16 1997 08:22)
@the scene
BillD--A little more about the shells flying here:

(Wed Jul 16 1997 08:31)

Another small outbreak going on in gay Paris.

Its getting awful hot for powers that be. The spin doctors are heading for some serious OT.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 08:54)
@the scene
D.A. -- A long 'HOT' summer just beginning! The 'crap' was bound to happen sooner or later. It has always been just a matter of time! These are the opening shots across the bow of the 'ship'. We'll see how it responds!

(Wed Jul 16 1997 08:57)
REOBEAR, D.A., PANDA, DONALD - Thanks for the comments.

George Cole
(Wed Jul 16 1997 09:00)

This morning's gold rally is especially significant because it is coming at a time of great dollar strength. Bad news ignored. If this much improved response to news continues look for a big move up within the next few weeks.

Whether rational or irrational the gold shorts sure are exuberant these days. The short interest is considerably higher today with gold at $320 than it was a year ago when bullion was $380. I suspect if gold drops another 10 bucks we will see a further exponential increase in the short interest. Talk about setting themselves up for a devastating counterattack ..

(Wed Jul 16 1997 09:12)
GEORGE S. COLE: I know it is the common view that gold should rise with a fall in the dollar as it encourages domestic inflation and reduces the price of gold in foreign currency, but conversely, many foreign investors appear to be attracted to gold due to the rise in the dollar as gold is a proxy for the dollar. So a rise in the dollar is not all bad.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 09:15)
House of cards?, er ah paper? I posted comex gold stocks last night and received an e-mail to explain it. Comex has 214,887 contracts out. There is only enough gold pledged to cover 3,480 of them. If someone decides to take delivery of the gold, the guys who wrote 211,407 contracts for 21 .1 MILLION ounces would have to find the gold elsewhere. A very comforting thought if you are short!!!

(Wed Jul 16 1997 09:19)
Is that an error on the Globex regarding the NDX? It's up 1775! This sure looks like blow off time.

Gold will rise, stocks will rise, the U.S. stock world will be happy... for a while. Apperance of deflation before the real inflation is seen. Foreign countries will move gold first?!

Gore's next speech, "It's the currency, STUPID!"

(Wed Jul 16 1997 09:23)
lease rates
One month lease rates reported up to 2.5%...

(Wed Jul 16 1997 09:27)
Arden: Are the people who operate the Comex unaware of what they are doing? What is the explanation for the situation from the administration of the exchange?

John Disney
(Wed Jul 16 1997 09:28)
To All

DDeep deal with buffels and Blyvoor has been revised
to the great advantage of Buffels and Blyvoor
Previously a buffels shareholder got 77 shares of
DD per 100 shares of buffels - now he gets 110
shares of DD per 100 buffels -
Previously a Blyvoor shareholder got 20 shares
of DD for 100 shares of blyvoor - now he gets 25 shares.
Previously a DD shareholder got some kind of long
maturity DD option as I recall. This seems to have
dissappeared from the agreement.
The odd thing about the agreement is that it values
Buffels greater than DD - but buffels is trading at
about 30 % less than DDeep in the market. This is
either an arbitrager's dream come true or a big screwup
in the agreement.
To anyone interested in buying DD. Obviously dont
do it - but rather enter via blyvoor ADR or even better
via Buffels - bought in London or Joberg. Buffels is
clearly a better deal - trading 10.5 rand with DD at
about 13.5 - This makes Buffels worth 1.1 times 13.5 = 15
and you can get it for 10.5. Money for nothing ( unless
you believe gold crashes in which case why are you
reading this anyway ? )

(Wed Jul 16 1997 09:35)
Russia wants to increase their GOLD RESERVES.

PDG Shorter
(Wed Jul 16 1997 09:41)
@Via Long KRY
Those that are long XAU futures might want to read the KRY story. As this story unfolds, I expect PDG to loose 30% in the near term. XAU heading for lower 80's? PDG heading towards 10? KRY towards the sky? Possible, its possible...

(Wed Jul 16 1997 09:43)
Dow 8001

(Wed Jul 16 1997 09:53)
After a long three+ plus week odyssey in the states I come back to find gold down over 20 dollars but maybe I have brought back the good times as gold is up and the XAU is up .83 and climbing...and we have DOW 8,000...
Maybe it's wishful thinking but it doesn't appear there could be much downside potential to the downtrodden gold shares and I am now tempted to add to my position....But am still seeing road signs after a 21 hour drive back to Cape Breton,and don't want to do anything rash YET...

(Wed Jul 16 1997 10:12)

The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter. The grasshopper thinks he's a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away. Come winter, the ant is warm and well fed. The grasshopper has no food or shelter so he dies out in the cold.


Come winter, the shivering grasshopper calls a press conference and demands to know why the ant should be allowed to be warm and well fed while others are cold and starving. CBS, NBC and ABC show up to provide pictures of the shivering grasshopper next to video of the ant in his comfortable home with a table filled with food. America is stunned by the sharp contrast. How can it be that, in a country of such wealth, this poor grasshopper is allowed to suffer so?
Then a representative of the NAAGB ( The national association of green bugs ) shows up on Nightline and charges the ant with "green bias,"and makes the case that the grasshopper is the victim of 30 million years of greenism. Kermit the Frog appears on Oprah with the grasshopper, and everybody cries when he sings "It's not easy being green." Bill and Hillary Clinton make a special guest appearance on the CBS Evening News to tell a concerned Dan Rather that they will do everything they can for the grasshopper who has been denied the prosperity he deserves by those who benefited unfairly during the Reagan summers, or as Bill refers to it, the "Temperatures of the 80's."
Richard Gephardt exclaims in an interview with Peter Jennings that the ant has gotten rich off the back of the grasshopper, and calls for an immediate tax hike on the ant to make him pay his "fair share." Finally, the EEOC drafts the "Economic Equity and Anti-Greenism Act," retroactive to the beginning of the summer. The ant is fined for failing to hire a proportionate number of green bugs and, having nothing left to pay his retroative taxes, his home is confiscated by the government. Hillary gets her old law firm to represent the grasshopper in a defamation suit against the ant, and the case is tried before a panel of federal judges that Bill appointed from a list of single-parent welfare moms who can only hear cases on Thursday's between 1:30 and 3pm when there are not talk shows scheduled. The ant loses the case.
The story ends as we see the grasshopper finishing up the last bits of the ant's food while the government house he's in, which just happens to be the ant's old house, crumbles around him since he doesn't know how to maintain it. The ant has disappeared in the snow. And on the TV, which the grasshopper bought by selling most of the ant's food, they are showing Bill Clinton standing before a wildly applauding group of Democrats announcing that a new era of "fairness" has dawned in America.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 10:12)
SPEED, SCOTT, ALL When the Dow was at 8001 the Dow/Gold ratio was only 24.92. The high of July 8th still stands. ( No guarantees! )

(Wed Jul 16 1997 10:12)
SPEED, SCOTT, ALL When the Dow was at 8001 the Dow/Gold ratio was only 24.92. The high of July8th still stands. ( No guarantees! )

(Wed Jul 16 1997 10:21)
Web TV and a pot of tea
Thanks to all of you fine young people for the bracing interchange that is taking place here this morning. I enjoy it so much.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 10:29)
William Safire, Contrarian

(Wed Jul 16 1997 10:29)
US likes its Gold
Laryn - The US Mint purchased gold on the open market to mint the American Eagle. Gold in Fort Knox in sacrosanct.

John Disney
(Wed Jul 16 1997 10:30)
To All ---
Woops - someone's been reading my mail - DDeep fell from 13.5 to 10
today on the announcement. So fancy arbitrage is off, luv. Blyvy is
2.5 so ratio is correct. Buffels is 9.8 which still shows a 10 per cent
advantage versus buying DDeep directly.
If you recall, I said I saw 10 in the cards for DDeep. How could I have
gotten that right when I get so many other things wrong.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 10:37)
@both halted
This should liven up the day a little.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 10:41)
TED: Welcome, it is good to have you back.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 16 1997 10:44)
TED: Welcome back mate!! The Kitco crew have missed you badly.
Re: Gold. IMUHO ( in my unhumble opinion ) gold may have further to go down yet. The are some important barriers crash test yet. If not great. If so, watch out. Exciting times. I think you will really like Donald's posts. It's like having your grandfather who lived through the depression providing timely well worn advice in times of need. Mine did, but died two years ago. His advice. Don't have too much debt & you'll get by.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 10:46)
CrystalBall - your ant story reminded me of this one -

And the Lord spoke to Noah and said: "In six months I'm going to make it
rain until the whole earth is covered with water and all the evil people
are destroyed. But I want to save a few good people, and two of every
kind of living thing on the planet. I am ordering you to build an Ark."

And in a flash of lightning he delivered the specifications for an Ark.
"OK," said Noah, trembling in fear and fumbling with the blueprints.

"Six months, and it starts to rain," thundered the Lord. "You'd better
have my Ark completed, or learn how to swim for a very long time."

And six months passed. The skies began to cloud up and rain began to

The Lord saw that Noah was sitting in his front yard, weeping. And there
was no Ark. "Noah," shouted the Lord, "Where is my Ark?" A lightning
bolt crashed into the ground next to Noah.

"Lord, please forgive me!" begged Noah. "I did my best. But there were
big problems. First I had to get a building permit for the Ark
construction project, and your plans didn't meet code. So I had to hire
an engineer to redraw the plans. Then I got into a big fight over whether or not the Ark needed a fire sprinkler system. My neighbors objected,claiming I was violating zoning by building the Ark in my front yard, so I had to get a variance from the city planning commission.

Then I had a big problem getting enough wood for the Ark because there
was a ban on cutting trees to save the Spotted Owl. I had to convince U.S. Fish and Wildlife that I needed the wood to save the owls. But they wouldn't let me catch any owls. So no owls. Then the carpenters formed a union and went out on strike. I had to negotiate a settlement with the National Labor Relations Board before anyone would pick up a saw or a hammer. Now we have 16 carpenters going on the boat, and still no owls.

Then I started gathering up animals, and got sued by an animal rights
group. They objected to me taking only two of each kind. Just when I
got the suit dismissed, EPA notified me that I couldn't complete the Ark
without filing an environmental impact statement on your proposed flood.
They didn't take kindly to the idea that they had no jurisdiction over
the conduct of a Supreme Being. Then the Army Corps of Engineers wanted a map of the proposed new flood plain. I sent them a globe.

Right now I'm still trying to resolve a complaint from the Equal Employment opportunity Commission over how many Croatians I'm supposed to hire; the IRS has seized all my assets claiming I'm trying to avoid paying taxes by leaving the country, and I just got a notice from the state about owing some kind of use tax. I really don't think I can finish your Ark for at least another five years," Noah wailed.

The sky began to clear. The sun began to shine. A rainbow arched across
the sky. Noah looked up and smiled. "You mean you're not going to
destroy the earth?" Noah asked, hopefully.

"No," said the Lord sadly, "Government already has."

(Wed Jul 16 1997 10:46)

Here's an interesting pricing. August Fed Funds futures are trading 3 ticks below current Fed Funds rate. Thus putting Fed tightening between now and then at something like a 10% probability. Considering the minutes from the last Fed meeting left us with a tightening bias and one member formally dissenting ( Brodeaus ) looking for an immediate rate hike this is some pretty aggressive betting. Of course with the dollar surging this is an implicit tightening so perhaps the markets are right.

Speaking of the dollar surging, gold is now the second strongest currency in the world over the past 10 days or so. It would appear the the gold short case is resting more on the currency play these days. Everyone will be keyed up going into the close looking for another short attack. If one doesn't occur, the bull counter attack may begin. With silver not budging to the downside during the last gold swing down it may be the hard edge of the bull horn. Don't you just love these mixed military metaphors? Can we post music along with our ditherings? Trumpets blaring, shells exploding!! Charge ..........!!!!!!!

(Wed Jul 16 1997 10:54)
@Why are the Russians (Almaz) buying palladium? Do they really have the goods?

Wednesday July 16 10:03 AM EDT

NY precious metals higher early on light volumes

NEW YORK, July 16 ( Reuter ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures were higher early Wednesday, on light
volumes, with the complex still consolidating after its slide last week.

``There was some Australian producer hedging in gold overnight, but also some good Asian merchant buying and, with the
locals also playing it from the long side today, gold gapped higher on the open on COMEX this morning,'' one COMEX
floor trader said.

COMEX August gold was up $1.30 at $320.30 early, as the contract continued to find a price base, after the slide to
new contract lows at $314.60 seen last week.

In the bullion market, spot gold was quoted $319.20/70, compared to the London Wednesday morning fix at $319.50
and the New York close Tuesday around $318.50/00.

But implied gold lease rates rose further Wednesday to around 2.60 pct for one month, up from 2.35 pct Tuesday, as
hedge funds borrowed to fund short positions, traders said.

Gold fixed at a 12 year low last week at $315.75 in London, in the wake of news of a sale of 167 tonnes of gold by the
Reserve Bank of Australia ( RBA ) .

The Australian dollar has slumped to a new 18 month low in the wake of the RBA sale, which has allowed gold prices in
Australian dollar terms to recover slightly from ten year lows around A$426.00 to around $434.00, but Australian gold
miners are taking advantage of the bounce to put on additional hedges, analysts said.

COMEX September silver was up 0.8 cent at $4.305 an ounce, and the contract continues to hold above the contract
lows at $4.175 seen last week.

Meanwhile, the platinum group metals ( PGM ) physical market remained highly backwardated, despite reports the first first
shipment of Russian platinum in six months will arrive in Tokyo Thursday.

Shipments of palladium resumed last week and another shipment is expected Friday.

But platinum prices ended higher on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange ( TOCOM ) overnight.

On NYMEX early Wednesday October platinum was up $4.10 at $390.50 an ounce, while NYMEX September
palladium was up $3.95 at $156.25.

U.S. refining sources said they had not seen any offers from Almaz in the U.S. market, and in fact had seen Almaz buying
on the palladium fix early Wednesday and on NYMEX Tuesday.

In the physical market, PGM lease rates eased a little though early Wednesday to around 30 percent for one month
platinum and 70 percent for one month palladium, refining sources said.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 16 1997 10:55)
Bas: You will be pleased to know that I am NOT anti-semitic, but am not a dumb Gentile either. I have some very close Jewish friends in the WA Liberal Party. We agree on many issues. However it is fairly safe to say that a number of Jews, such as Joseph Gutnick, are extremely successful business people. Good for him. It was commented on recently however, how they will quickly move on from one successful venture to another, capital intact. My passing interest was whether Gutnick had any Jewish friends in Barrick to network with?? I don't know their Directorship details. Hoping someone might. But from your comments it seems you wish for Kitco to evolve into a politically correct discussion group. Sorry, as a contrarian, I'm NOT politically correct. I enjoy going against the trend of masses going over the cliff. I suspect most of the regulars here are similarly contrarian in their outlook. Otherwise they wouldn't be here. Gotta take the punches mate.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 11:03)
Comex Gold up 1.50!...Thanks for the welcome back Vieserre and Steve-Perth!!!!...Had a very strange and interesting trip but right now I am BURNT!...A great day to be back as it's a beautiful sunny day on the ocean but for now there are mucho errands to do....I missed this place ..
and KITCO!...Will be in yer faces later dudes!!! and go GOLD!

(Wed Jul 16 1997 11:17)
@the scene
D.A. -- I agree with you gold market assessment. Further, I think if we see a close above 321.5 or so Aug., We should see 335. That's not saying that lower numbers would not be in the offing at the open tomorrow just before a runup begins. Just be aware of 'possibilities'. BUT, should we see a close below 319.5, I do believe we'll be heading south. Probably a lot!

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 16 1997 11:20)
John Howard's lot is finally waking up to Foreign Trade Zones. I requested a copy of BHP's submission to the Australian Fed. Govt. Amazed to see US has up to 500 separate factories etc registered invdividually as Foreign Trade Zones, with all the added extras that go with it.
Howard floats tax havens to boost jobs

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 16 1997 11:26)
Another Gold mining project cancelled.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 16 1997 11:33)
Mine Chief at Australian Reserve Bank Talks
Nothing like a bit of insider trading, eh? We're top blokes, us Aussies, for allowing our super rich to sit on our Central Bank. We don't even go to the trouble of putting Federal Governors up as front men for our big money people, unlike the USA.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 11:38)
@the scene
Been wathcing the crude for August. Been looking good to me for the last couple days! I say if we see numbers above 19.85, it should bode quite well for a NICE runup!

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 16 1997 11:41)
Goldman Sachs has negative outlook for Aussie & NZ Currencies in short term.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 16 1997 11:56)
John Howard discovers that profit is not made by public servants in Canberra, but by manufacturers that make computer hardware & software. Obviously he does not follow US High Tech stocks. What worries the average Australian ( I do political 'phone polling, so I know ) is that Australia is being run by total .........'s, who are so far behind the international scene, it is scary for us. The good news is that Howard has just worked out that you can't keep borrowing money to make Social Security payments, while we hand obscene profits out to multinationals that have the Australian Treasury Dept all sown up.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 12:04)
"Russian" Gold
Panda: Gad I'm snarky today! I just couldn't help but think that the REAL story about the Russians buying gold goes something like this: "... of course if I could sell the gold in my grandmothers teeth I wouldn't hesitate! But since we did that last year and we don't have even have dust left in the vaults we have to say something and so to give a postive "spin", like the americans always do, we are just saying to the press we are buying and not selling..." :- )

(Wed Jul 16 1997 12:06)
@Jerry Favors stuff
Taken from the Jerry Favors page from Market WEB:

. " WE must now allow for somewhat

higher prices before final top but we still do not believe

prices will move significantly above 8000 before we start a

major decline,even if we close above 8000 this week.All time

cycles call for a top in this time frame,and the wave

structure and the Bradley suggests we are no more than a few

days away from that top."

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 16 1997 12:08)
Small Aussie Miners worried by predators as gold falls

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 16 1997 12:15)
Following article on Taiwan coming to rescue Asian currency for trade favours is REAL smart. No wonder Taiwan is so successful.

Bob A
(Wed Jul 16 1997 12:15)
Anyone know why no quotes on PDG ?

(Wed Jul 16 1997 12:19)
@theBank In Brisbane
Steve: some e-mail from Coolgardie Gold on the golds current effect on them :

Dear Sir,
You may or may not be aware that we sold our only production asset ( ie 50%
of the Gold Mines of Coolgardie- GMC ) and we were paid in March. We now
have approximately $12 million in cash and no debt. We are currently
seeking new projects and the fall in gold price is to our advantage as many
projects struggle.
Our timing in moving out of GMC now seems perfect and your company has a
new management team since last July and we are optimistic about the future.
Unfortunately our share price has fallen with the rest of the market but
for example, Herald Resources who were our JV partner and who we sold our
50% to were at approximately $1.80 12 months ago and are now $0.55.
I trust that answers your query.

Mal Smartt
Chief Financial Officer

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 16 1997 12:23)
Banks must be ready for euro from day one....
PS. You are reading this on the net, before the business people in
Sydney have even got their Financial Review Newspapers. They are still
in bed!!!

(Wed Jul 16 1997 12:26)
@read it
SCOTT: Saw your post the previously. Thanks. Interesting. This is the sort of interesting information people could give me about Barrick gold, instead of worrying about their ethnic paranoia.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 12:29)
Steve : Interesting that the share price moves with gold when it has no effect on the company. In fact, a lower price should make the share price go up. Just goes to show that people know nothing about investing.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 16 1997 12:30)
Aluminium rising. Would someone be so kind as to throw some light on the direction of Aluminium for next 1 - 2 years, after reading the following?
I am looking at associated Stocks in this area.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 12:31)
I just received word that Ted is back. You should be receiving his powerful but pithy posts pronto.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 16 1997 12:35)
Looking forward to the next series of Ted & Tortfeasor. Time for the sack. Will look in again at 9pm USA time. I get up late.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 12:39)
@Almost in bed
Steve : You get up late eh, its 2:39am in Brisbane. About the same time I get up in the pm.

to Bob A.
(Wed Jul 16 1997 12:41)
(about PDG)
PDG and KRY pending news releases or something ? regarding properties in Ven.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 12:49)
@for u
LONDON, July 16 ( Reuter ) - Bullion was fixed at $319.50 per ounce on Wednesday afternoon, unchanged from the morning setting, as the market regained some its lost confidence.

The gold market had been shaken ever since the Australian central bank announced at the beginning of July that it had sold 167 tonnes of gold from reserves over the previous six months.

The bullion price dipped to a 12-year low of $131.60 and its stuttering recovery since then has kept market nerves on edge.

The price in New York gapped higher when it opened, reversing a move lower which set in last night near the close.

Shortly after the fixing the Comex August futures were $320.50, up $1.50 and going some way to confirm European dealers' views that the price was manipulated lower late Tuesday.

``The close was engineered lower in New York last night by one player who just offered and offered it down,'' a dealer said.

A range of $318.00-$322.00 was forecast for Wednesday, which raised the floor almost $5.00 from the recent low.

But one dealer said: ``The market is a bit confused. You wouldn't want to go too long with this guy selling in New York.''

The market ignored a report late yesterday that a Russian trade union official estimated domestic gold output at only 80 tonnes this year compared with 130 tonnes calculated by Gold Fields Mineral Services ( GFMS ) for 1996.

``It may be that this figure does not include production from the artels ( mining co-operatives ) which made up about half last year's total,'' said GFMS chief executive Stewart Murray.

Attempts to lift gold from further collapse were not helped by European stock markets, led by Britain, France and Germany rampaging to new records on Wednesday, while the reinvigorated dollar again traded above 116 yen and around 1.80 marks.

The UK's FTSE 100 index was up more than 90 points to 4,990 in mid-afternoon, charging further into record territory within grasp of the 5,000 hurdle.

Banks contributed almost half of the FTSE's advance.

Silver and the platinum group metals were almost unchanged all day, with silver at $4.31/$4.33, platinum at $404.50/$408.50, up $1.50, and palladium $2.25 ahead at $173.75/$177.75.

``People probably got their fingers burned yesterday. Silver looks like a buy-the-dips market,'' a dealer said.

He added that a target would be $4.40, which silver had failed to breach several times in the past few weeks.

11:09 07-16-97

Bob A
(Wed Jul 16 1997 12:52)
Regards PDG Thanks

(Wed Jul 16 1997 12:57)
Kuston - How would one earn respect on this site?
Perhaps, oh, I don't know, be one of the few people
to predict gold was going down since last September
and the Dow was going to continue to rise? To predict
that Flag was indeed not a moon shot but a Mooney/RJ2
enterprise after they had a few too many shots?
To point out those people who are consistently wrong
or consistently hiding behind multiple handles? How indeed
could one go about earning respect on this site?

Oh, I don't care if you call me Hepcat
As part of your Kitcowboys crazy games
It reminds me of young tykes on the playground
calling each other names

But then some of us grew up and got a life
and a job and traveled and shopped at Saks'
While others stuck in junior high school,
told tales tales but didn't earn enough to pay taxes.

Oh, I said gold to three-two-five, and then wait
for further advice
But it didn't matter, you didn't listen, and so
you'll miss out twice

If you say the world don't change, but you don't change
You fullfill your own prediction
But the world is changing, it's gold that's not changing
it's currently headed in one direction

Down, down, down

(Wed Jul 16 1997 12:58)
Competitive Currencies
Vieserre: Devaluation of the bhat, etc. is not threatening to the yen. The reason for this is that Japanese concerns have been moving manufacturing out to south eastern countries like Thailand for years. What the current devaluation means is that Japanese products manufactured using Thai components will be cheaper and Japanese capital can buy more of Thailand.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 16:40)
Hi Tort and fellow Kitcoites!...looks like we went off the air on my first day back in cyberspace and I am tryin to decifer if this a good or bad omen or just plain good old bad luck....Though still road weary I'm contemplating buying more gold shares and if anyone has any info on HM,ABX,NEM, or any of the other majors,it would be appreciated...and yes Mooney, I know this is not the forum to discuss gold shares but who cares what the rules are....I certainly don't!...Three+ weeks in the states and I've turned into another "ugly American"....Again it's great to be back with my friends.....and enemies at Kitco!

(Wed Jul 16 1997 16:40)
Joke for the day
Since often we say what we don't mean on this forum and people who read what we write often don't understand the meaning of either what we posted or what we meant by the post I project the following story in sympathy for that lack of communication.

A farmer walked into an attorney's office wanting to file for a
divorce. The attorney asked, "May I help you?" The farmer said, "Yea,
I want to get one of those dayvorce's."
The attorney said, "well do you have any grounds?" The farmer said,
"Yea, I got about 140 acres." The attorney said, " No, you don't
understand, do you have a case?" The farmer said, "No, I don't have a
Case, but I have a John Deere."
The attorney said, "No you don't understand, I mean do you have a
grudge?" The farmer said, "Yea I got a grudge, that's where I park my
John Deere." The attorney said, "No sir, I mean do you have a suit?"
The farmer said, "Yes sir, I got a suit. I wear it to church on
The exasperated attorney ( not long-suffering like the Tortfeasor would be ) said, "Well sir, does your wife beat you up or anything?"
The farmer said, "No sir, we both get up about 4:30."
Finally, the attorney says, "Okay, let me put it this way. "WHY DO
And the farmer says, "Well, I can never have a meaningful conversation with her."

(Wed Jul 16 1997 16:43)
Come on John, the fgr.a obtained the park ( grab sample of 24.0 oz per ton Au ) the licences for exploration are being drafted and time is running out for you! You won't be able to short the stock anymore because you don't or won't have a large enough position to play these games anymore. Oh happy days are here again!! Shes an open pit GOLD MINE, Johnny boy!!

(Wed Jul 16 1997 16:43)
I just noticed a paucity of pungent posts this afternoon, ie. no posts for the past four hours--are you all just disgusted or having nothing to say in this investment climate?

(Wed Jul 16 1997 16:45)
Tort: We double posted.....didn't take long to get back on the same wavelength...

(Wed Jul 16 1997 16:57)
I'll echo what Tort just said....WHERE THE HELL IS EVERYONE???...Was there a mass suicide in my absence???...or is everybody hanging low,licking their wounds....can Gold go much lower???...can the DOW go much higher???...I'm impatiently waiting for discussion on the Gold majors!

(Wed Jul 16 1997 17:07)
Ted and Tort: Welcome back Ted, hang on, kitco has been down since about 12:15 or so EDT. I have been trying to get back in and just did so. Looks like gold is getting sold down again, that big player in New York?

(Wed Jul 16 1997 17:12)
Johnny are you the devil??

(Wed Jul 16 1997 17:13)
Roebear: Thanks fer the welcome back!...and how bout dem Hershey Bears...
Time for din din...

George Cole
(Wed Jul 16 1997 17:31)
market action
Despite the afternoon retreat, gold didn't do too badly today considering surge in dollar and stocks.

Stock market looks to be on course for my target of Dow 8500 in August. Russell 2000, now at 410, could easily jump to 450 over next few weeks.

Where will we be in October? Below 7500 certainly and under 7000 probably.

Gold should begin its bull next month, but it will be a slow beginning. Powerful short-covering rallies nothwithtstanding, the yellow's fundamental upward progress will be quite modest for the balance of 1997. But we should see real fireworks in 1998 as gold takes out $400 decisively.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 17:36)
..something interesting by the Woodrow Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis...What is a dollar worth? This site has a calculator which measures the CPI of a value in current year to the value of that same basket of goods in an earlier year. It measures the average level of prices of the goods and services typically consumed by an urban American family.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 17:38)
To George S. Cole..

Your optimism always amazes me.. An impressive day for gold is if it
doesn't go down, "much". Love your comments but I think you may be
pissing in the wind....

(Wed Jul 16 1997 17:44)
was it a goldbug

(Wed Jul 16 1997 17:53)
@...only three months ago
Q was skimming 1100 and now jumps daily to new highs. Have we missed a secular change in IT stocks or is this a replay of former May-summer runs for the tech stks ? What impact is IT having on the big board stks ?

Forbes top 500 companies, USA vs x-USA, indicate that, in the aggregate, US top 500 are making materially greater bottom line profits from less sales than the x-USA top 500.

The role of American IT and the impact of US domination of the world's software marketshare are showing through the statistics.
If you too could manufacture software and sell it on $3 CDs for a significant multiple of its "full" cost ( R+D, etc. ) in tremendous volumes you can also challenge the wealthiest man in the world.

The Internet wave makes it cheaper still to distribute SW and indeed transact sales of hardware systems and hard products in general. This is an American phenomena that is slowly catching on in Japan and Europe.

The SE Asian tigers are pawns that provide the sweat shops for commodity chip fabs and assemblies that end-up in US ( and other first world ) branded systems.

Where is inflation you ask ? It's exported to China, SE Asian tigers and lesser developed countries of the former ( FSU ) soviet union. Who tracks inflation in China ? Who cares ?

If it were not for the gold buying of the Asian community we ( long gold investors ) would be really suffering ( and you think its bad already ! ) .

The way to turn-around this Mama Bear in gold is to shake-out the short specs and squeeze the blood suckers for all the profits they stole from gold investors over the past 3 quarters.

Peter Munk and a few Big Gold Miners need only counter-attack to launch gold back to a higher trading range. They do it by buying physical spot gold - preferably from weak CBs - and play chicken with the short specs. In the absence of major CB dump "announcements" the yellow metal price should follow a more commodity base price model that eliminates the macabre death watch that allows spec gold shorts to profit at the expense of gold industry investors.

Dose anyone doubt that the Gold Cartel could easily reverse the speculative purge of the gold price by spec shorts who profitably played off the dupe - Govenor Daffy Duck of the RBA - at the expense of long-term gold investors ? Does anyone doubt me ? Do you not believe that the trading range of $340 was adequately tested and held even with CB dumps until insider trading sniffed the RBA gold dump
and milked it for all its "expected" news worthiness ?

When will the Golden Big Boys defend their shareholders vested long-term interests ? That day will be the day that gold price rallies hard and fast back to its pre-RBA trading range - 20 bucks is 20 bucks !


(Wed Jul 16 1997 17:57)
NEWS FROM BRAZIL: Brazilian stock markets fall but Real remains stable

BRASLIA, 07/16/97 - Although the speculative attacks on Asian currency helped cause an 8.5%
drop on the So Paulo stock exchange and a 7.7% decline in Rio de Janeiro, Finance Minister
Pedro Malan maintained his schedule of visits to financial leaders the United States. He will lunch
today with the vice director of the International Monetary Fund, Stanley Fisher. However, Argentine
Finance Minister, Roque Fernandez, said Malan had expressed "concern" when he visited Buenos
Aires Sunday. "When he was in Europe he was always being questioned on the potential impact of
the Asian crisis," Fernandez said. Malan assured him, however, that there will be no abrupt changes
in the exchange rate. ( SB )

Electrical appliance industry records a 12.2% drop in sales

SO PAULO, 07/16/97 - Manufacturers of electrical and electronic products recorded a 12.2%
drop in sales in June, compared to the same period in 1996. When compared to May, the decline
was 10.3%. This is the second month in a row that sales of electrical and electronic products have
declined, said the National Association of Electrical and Electronic Manufacturers ( Eletros ) . "The
sales drop surprised the sector," said Roberto Macedo, president of Eletros. "The manufacturers
expected a drop in sales but did not expect the decline to be so drastic," he said. ( SB )

(Wed Jul 16 1997 18:01) a strong wind even turkeys can fly...but
NotaGoldbug...when that high wind changes direction even an innocent bystander can get pissed on.


(Wed Jul 16 1997 18:04)
Minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka said
Japan will co-ordinate with the
International Monetary Fund
( IMF ) , if necessary, to help bring
stability to Asian currencies,
including the baht, that have
recently tumbled against the

Japan will keep a close watch on
Asian currencies and keep close
contact with the related nations,
Mitsuzuka said.

He didn't say whether the
Ministry of Finance had a specific
plan to co-ordinate with the IMF
to deal with recent sharp declines
in Asian currencies such as the
baht, Indonesian rupiah and
Philippine peso.

"The IMF is now observing the
situation quietly," Mitsuzuka said
at a regular press c conference.

"Speculation about Asian
currencies has been reported, but
it doesn't reflect reality y."

Referring to Thailand, he said: "I
am aware of the reports that
Thailand will seek financial
support from the IMF, and we
will handle the situation in
co-operation with the IMF, if
needed, as we will talk about the
situation with the IMF."

Mitsuzuka said he expected the
baht to stabilize soon against the
dollar and welcomed Thailand's
decision to move to a managed
float on July 2.

"We are analyzing trading, in
expectation that trading in the
baht will settle down eventually
following Thailand's move," he

Meanwhile, Japan's newly
appointed Vice-Finance Minister
Takeshi Komura also said that his
ministry would carefully monitor
foreign exchange markets in Asia.

Komura, attending his first press
conference since replacing
Tadashi Ogawa as the top
ministry bureaucrat, said that
Japan will then come up with an
appropriate response to the
present currency situation in the
region. - Bloomberg

(Wed Jul 16 1997 18:14)
NEWS FROM MANILA: Peso holds at P29 to $1

Defying speculations, the peso performed better than
expected yesterday as it held at P29 to $1 on the first day
of trading after the government allowed it to float last

Full General Stories

BSP to avail of $1-B IMF facility

The Philippine Central Bank or Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas ( BSP ) will draw on some $1.1 billion in funds
from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) to boost the
country's gross international reserves ( GIR ) which
dropped to $9.7 billion after heavy intervention in the
foreign exchange market.

Full Business Stories

(Wed Jul 16 1997 18:21)
Fire Department IMF

Regarding the devaluations; world governments and their fire department, the IMF are ACTUALLY creating investor confidence, by supposedly putting out these fires. If the currencies had gold backing, there would be less fire alarms.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 18:21)
@takeover Down Under???
This story would be of particular interest to Steve in Perth and others:

Great Central Says No Takeover Received from Barrick

SYDNEY ( Dow Jones ) --Australia's Great Central Mines Ltd. ( GTCMY )
Wednesday responded to speculation about a takeover bid for the gold miner from Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ) by telling the Australian Stock Exchange it "has not received nor is it aware of a takeover bid" from Barrick.

But around 0200 GMT ( 10 p.m. EDT ) , shares in Great Central continue to outstrip the broader gold sector, climbing 23 cents, or nearly 9.4%, to A$2.69.

The gold shares subindex is up 1.2%

Great Central Tuesday jumped 10 cents to A$2.46, while the gold sector dropped 1.0%, causing many brokers to cite the Barrick rumor as the reason for the stock's performance.

Joseph Gutnick, who owns about 20% of Great Central, said in an interview he told the exchange "there is no bid yet from Barrick."

"If there is a bid it would be in the market, if there isn't there isn't," he said.

Gutnick declined to comment whether Barrick executives have been Australia to discuss a bid for Great Central.

the wizard
(Wed Jul 16 1997 18:25)
@ Oz
fire! fire! fire! ( -in a crowded theatre? )
feed the "kundalini";
or the "kundalini" will feed on you

(Wed Jul 16 1997 18:43)
@And THATS the way it is...
Ted: Welcome back. Can gold go lower? You bet. Can the Dow go higher? Affirmative. IMHO, jumping into the gold market is STILL like walking blindfolded off the end of a gangplank into the middle of the Atlantic Ocean in a hurricane. Lets face it...most of us are here because we are goldnuts. We believe or have believed the ( well-intentioned ) stuff that appears here. In the process most of us are missing the greatest bull market ever in the Dow and elsewhere. Gold will have its day I suppose ( they say every dog does ) , but I don't expect a run anytime soon. If I'm wrong tomorrow and the mighty gold rush starts, I'll be as happy as anyone here, but I don't believe its going to happen. Nor next week, nor next month either.

How's that for pessimism?

Bob AG
(Wed Jul 16 1997 18:59)
The majority is always wrong? and at this juncture it sure looks like the majority is very pessimistic. Therefore it time to buy?

Just Learning!

(Wed Jul 16 1997 19:03)
lease rates
...welcome back Ted...Steven Kaplan reports that one-month implied lease rate is up to 2.60% from 2.35 % yesterday. Annualized, shorts are paying over 32%interest.
It works out at $320.00 spot, to $8.32 before they break-even...the nose is getting shorter...and the funds squeeze the CB's laugh it up...

(Wed Jul 16 1997 19:10)
@Oracle's gold standard theory
Oracle: I found your theory ( )
fascinating about the industrialized nations orchestrating a concerted effort to return to a fractional ( 25% of M1 ) gold standard as an explanation for present events. I am no economist, but I believe ANY return to any type of gold standard would require the elimination of deficit ( deceit? ) spending by the goverment. If they were to convert to a 25% gold standard under present spending conditions, the arbitragers ( arbi-traitors? ) would have a field day with the $/gold. A golden chaparone can only be utilized efectively under a balanced budget. I dont see this as a viable theory until goverments are weened off their high paper fiber ( newly printed $ and credit ) diet, which will not happen
until a total economic collapse ensues. Also, any gold standard theory can not be effectively contemplated without including the expansion of credit along with the basic money supply. Expansion of credit will cause inflation and subsequent arbitrage just as surely as printing $ will.
Your posts are always respected and admired, and your further input on this would be appreciated.
All: Anyone else have any input on this?

(Wed Jul 16 1997 19:12)
The Dow/Gold ratio is 25.22 tonight. We have a new 31 year high just 3.25 ounces shy of the 1966 high.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 19:21)
@ I'm not your stepping stone...the Monkees??
"We are more than happy to establish a mechanism through which relevant countries can help others on a reciprocal basis in case of financial crisis".
Mr. Stea Ja-dong...from Steve 12:15 article

i read this comment several times and pondered for quite awhile

What Mr. dong ( if I may call you dong ) calls Reciprocity...I call Graft. You got H.K. and soon you will have Taiwan. And soon after? Doesn't this all seem too well orchestrated?? Hmmmmmmmmmm...I wonder. And now Japan is jumping on the "help ship". We must keep up with the Jones'es. Who will own the stepping stone...



things are continuing to feel weird...and the doo-doo is building for a GOOD fan-hitting

(Wed Jul 16 1997 19:29)
doo-doo = Sh*t
The kitco "editor" told me to "Grow up" and not to post any dirty words for all to read. I apologize for my sophmoric attempts to make joke. That is a clever editor. I guess everyone does not get edited? Oh well...away


(Wed Jul 16 1997 19:35)
Well I went &did it picked up a some Oct 340 calls @ 150 a pop

(Wed Jul 16 1997 19:37)
Dollar rally stalls on fears of Japanese trade report

(Wed Jul 16 1997 19:38)
I remember those kids on the playground.

It reminds me of the kid who ALWAYS got picked last because he didn't play well with others and he just plain sucked at sports? I remember those tykes too.


(Wed Jul 16 1997 19:41)
@annualised lease rate?
NOMERCY, I thought the one month lease rate was an annualised
equivalent, that 2.6% or whatever was what it would be if
paid for a year. only a difference of x12, would appreciate
if anyone could clarify this.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 19:48)
Kap'n Kev: Since you just had to go open the topic of options, the Dec98 400 calls are now at $210 and stable. The June 99 400s are at $260. Option writers are now of the opinion that gold has been pronounced dead and all that remains is a decent burial. So far they are correct.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 19:48)
...this might help

(Wed Jul 16 1997 19:57)
Here is the GC action for the past 5 days. Registered in 5 min bars. Interpretation is left as an academic exercize for those so inclined.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 20:01)
Novice ( 18:43 ) Maybe I'll use your latest as a contrary indicator and buy some more Gold shares...At their depressed prices the temptation is great, especially since there is cash to spare with the cancellation ( today ) of the real estate purchase...Will e-mail you about the last minute change of plans...

(Wed Jul 16 1997 20:07)
I hear ya EARL, but you cant win if ya dont PLAY, besides I LIKE buying when nobody does

(Wed Jul 16 1997 20:11)
Kap'n Kev: I'm actually more in tune with you than that post would indicate. If not, I wouldn't have had the prices at my fingertips.

ron jett
(Wed Jul 16 1997 20:15)
DONALD, can you brief me on this Dow/Gold ratio you speak of.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 20:19)
I consider gold call option buying as a way to spend loose change, kinda like throwin' it out on a crap table ( at this point anyhow ) if it hits GREAT if it dont ohwell woulda spent it on something useless like restoring a couple of more classic cars

(Wed Jul 16 1997 20:25)
Earl......crackin' open a nice frosty ( Coors ) now, as they say at the hunting lodge..........TO THE HUNT!!

(Wed Jul 16 1997 20:26)
Respecting John @hepcat
John: I could respect your opinion about the gold, which you
coincidentally post only when the current movement in price of gold
supports it, but the fact that somebody shopped at Saks' never impressed
me. Must be my European upbringing ;- )

(Wed Jul 16 1997 20:31)
RON JETT: The Dow/Gold ratio is the number of ounces needed to buy one share of each of the Dow Jones Index. September, 1929, it took 18.43 ounces. January, 1980, it took 1 ounce, today it takes 25.22. In my opinion it measures the extremes of greed and fear. Others disagree. Right now it is telling me that we are in an area of greed in stocks. In 1980 we were in an area of greed in gold.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 20:36)
After hanging out on the floor in the options pit I would NOT assume that just because someone sells a Dec98 $400 call that the traders believes that gold is dead. This is how they make money. Anyway at any given time they are buying and selling - puts and calls and then off-setting the risk with futures contracts. I've writen a couple calls myself and I understand the risk. But I just think that if Gold were to explode to the upside I would make os much money buying futures contracts that it really would not even matter. Also for thous of you who think that Gold will somehow open up $100 higher one day and that will be that you can trust me when I say I check gold quotes in the middle of the night just for that such event with my phone and access numbers never far away. It's a hell of a life but someone's got ot do it!

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 16 1997 20:45)
EARL: Your excellent 5 day chart shows me that gold is still dropping
with sharp one of upsides, that cannot successfully overpower the overall
downside. The bottom is not here yet. George Cole is on the money. 8500 could be hit very easily now.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 20:47)
the wager...
I am glad nobody took me up on that wager ( my puts vs. your calls ) . With all the recent activity by the shorts it has made the options more volatile hence more expensive. I could not find a good spread EITHER way. I'd rather wait 'til the volatility drops and options start to look better. There just doesn't seem to be enough room for me to profit on the short side... ( if that's not a sign to short the market I don't know what is ) !

Anyway, I'll save the cash. Because now I'm "Cuckoo for Cocoa Puts"...oh my!



(Wed Jul 16 1997 20:48)
Todays action in the gold market confirms two things for me.

1. Inflation is weighing heavily on Gold's inability to make a move higher.

2. When we start to see some form of Inflation it will be enough to send gold up to more respectably levels.

Any comment

(Wed Jul 16 1997 20:53)
Glenn: The traders may not share the opinion I expressed but the low prices for options per unit of time, would seem to indicate that the buyers do. ..... I would also assume that, at these levels, there are not a large number of options being written.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 21:01)
Bill Gates
Just saw on the news that Bill Gates's net worth increased today by nearly $3 billion, thanks to a $9/share increase in Microsoft. The man is now worth $41 billion! To help me deal with all those zeros, I figure the interest ON THE INTEREST is about one-half million dollars per day, seven days a week, 365 days a year.

EBN spot up a nickel.

ron jett
(Wed Jul 16 1997 21:18)
DONALD, thank you for taking the time to explain. I do believe as I have that will end badly for those who are dipping into this monster. I am and will remain, a holder of silver, gold. I figure I've been wrong for so long thatsoon I'll have to be right. FYI, I have devoted my Geocities page now to the metals if you care to visit.

thanks again

(Wed Jul 16 1997 21:18)
More on Gates
It is conceivable that this fella could become the world's first trillionaire. Incidentally, guys, what would you do with a trillion dollars? I think I'd buy NASA, increase its annual budget by a thousand fold, and start landing men on little rocks in space looking for gold and other goodies. Wait, at these prices, maybe I should do my mining on COMEX. Why get my hands dirty?

(Wed Jul 16 1997 21:33)
Steve, appreciate your reply and clarification. I just wondered about your comment and why you needed to make the distinction. As you may appreciate, anti-semitism is a higly sensitive issue and goes beyond boundaries of political correctness, but you have reassured me on this score. Enjoy your posts, by the way.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 21:37)
Ron@Bill Gates
Ron, sorry to point a small error in your calculation of Bill's net
worth. In addition to today's increase, he gained just about the same
amount ( $3 billions ) in the previous three days. That would make him
worth aprx. $44 billions. Earning $6 billions in less than a week. He
sure could buy with one week earning more gold that what was recently
sold by Oz CB. Well, maybe it was him so he can print "Windows" in gold
letters on ewery box containing MS software ;- )

(Wed Jul 16 1997 21:42)
If I had $44 Billion I would buy an annuity. Seriously, Lots of guys were multi-billionaires in Germany in 1923. As I recall, they were not too happy about it.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 21:44)
EBN Gold up .50 and Silver down 1 cent.....

George Cole
(Wed Jul 16 1997 21:50)
in Florida
Bob: Although we disagree on many things you are absolutely on the money about the ability of the big gold miners to blast the shorts. The latter are hugely vulnerable to a well financed counterattack, perhaps more than they have ever been in the past. But I suspect the big boys do not mind gold at these levels for awhile as it will enable them to acquire the small fry on the cheap.

With 500 new highs today, this blowoff in the stock market has a considerable ways to go before the game ends. But time is running out. These big gains will accrue over the next few weeks and then KAPUT.

Seems to me some of the gold bears now are just as emotionally anti-gold as gold bugs used to be on the other side of the equation. Some of you really HATE the yellow.

As far as I am concerned the recent smash in gold shares is just what the doctor ordered. They finally are dirt cheap and will explode with huge gains when during the next gold bull. I do not expect big sustainable upside moves anytime soon, but the long-term potential is enormous. The risk/reward ratio has never been better.

Jojo in Tokyo
(Wed Jul 16 1997 21:55)
Checking in after an absence - Hello All!
Hello all! Just checking in after an absence. Kitco is still alive and well I see.

8000! my goodness. When I said at the beginning of the year to expect much lower gold and much higher stocks I had no idea! Luckily I put some of my own money where my mouth was ( in both cases ) . It was hard to do but it paid off this time. Isn't there an investment saying like:
"Never make any investment unless it keeps you awake at night with beads of sweat on your forehead." In other words, if you are comfortable with your investments, it is a bad sign ( often been the case with me anyway ) . Does anyone recall Old Man who last year reported his success with doing immediate reversals when his futures went awry? Similarly, I thought gold was headed up this year, but it did not, so with white knuckles I reversed ( shorted ) . What do all those mutual fund advertisements say? Something like "Past performance is no guarantee that luck will be with us in the future."

In Tokyo these days there are tons of rumors of all kinds, but I have not reported them here because I notice most are already being reported here and in the media. ( If I knew some TRUTH I would report it. )

Current status: We ( our little group ) are biting our nails here continuing to bet on higher market and lower gold. For how long? Hmmm....until something changes I guess. I have suggested that additional hedging be used with these positions but then that would violate the basic requirement of good investments, i.e., they must keep you awake at night, beads of sweat, and, oh yeah, the pain in the stomach ( last night my nightstand bottle of antiacid went empty, I ran through the apartment rifling my briefcases looking for more...and I had no fun! ) .

Unless there is some horrific exogenous event we think the US market will continue - why? - our professional opinion is this: it will continue because the market is a ferocious greedy green-eyed monster that does not want to stop until it has ALL the baby-boomers life savings safely tucked away for them! BWAAAAAahahahahahah! ( said the monster in my dream, waking me again! )


(Wed Jul 16 1997 21:58)
TED -- Welcome back. I, personally, took care of the gold price! :- ) )

(Wed Jul 16 1997 21:59)
Donald: your comment regarding 1923 in Germany? You may want to
reconsider your views. The old Reichsmark was backed by GOLD.-
After the inflation in 1923, the new Rentenmark was backed up by
the combined value inherent in the Government owned Railroad System,
including all right of way, tracks, stations, rolling stock,
everything!!. Not GOLD!

(Wed Jul 16 1997 22:02)

Miro - Weren't you the one who called me a wannabe? Who exactly do
I imitate on this site? Who do I parrot? Who do I pretend to be? Would
you like me to post that gold is going down every day? I will be happy to.
Let's set a default post for 10:15 a.m. every day, Monday through Friday.
Here it is:

Gold is going down, both in the short term, and for the forseeable future,
unless there is a cataclysmic event. You have been warned. If you
choose not to follow my advice ( unsupported save for the chart at the
top of the page ) , then you are foolish and deluded.

Naturally, I have the option of overriding the default message on any
given day, for example, if a stronger warning is necessary. Also,
unlike the true nonthinkers on this site, I will change my message to
"gold is going up" when the time warrants, i.e. when gold actually is
going to make a sustained move up. Of course, this will hardly be
recognized above the shouts of everyone here who says, "See, I
told you gold was going up" when that time arrives. Prescient,
or just plain precious? You decide.

Miro, Miro, on the wall
Sprio Agnew down the hall
Nattering Nabobokovs
Sages or 40%offs?
Wannabe? Wannabet? Wantanabe? Guantanamera?

RJ2 - If the devil is in the details, then yes, I am the devil.
Where is your good friend Stephen Mooney?

Richard Burke
(Wed Jul 16 1997 22:06)
(On the Gulf of Georgia)
TED: re majors: PDG announced yesterday that it was reducing costs to around $217 for the next year - getting into better grade of ore.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 22:07)
GFD: Thanks for the comment. It is a point well considering.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 22:19)
This is it. I quit. I taking my loses as soon as the bullion dealer opens in the morning. It's been fun watching the chats but it's time to face the facts. Big Gov. has won. Paper is worth what they tell us it's worth. We have no other options. I watch as we move more towards one world socialist government. This is our future. Once government provides us with all necessities, gold and silver will be useless and we will be slaves.
It's all over now but the crying.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 22:38)
Hi Panda and thanks for the welcome you're the one responsible for the 20+ drop in the last 3 Burke ( 22:06 ) thanks for info on pdg but I don't like their CEO Mr.Wilson...I'm thinking of buying tomorrow and have narrowed it down to ABX,HM or NEM....Any comments?????

(Wed Jul 16 1997 22:40)
@the scene
The August gold is either going to see 335 or 305! Unless something very dramatic happens tonight, I believe that todays action put the writing on the wall; Heading South! In either case, I'll play it. Insurance is one thing but an increase in purchasing power is nice also!

Watch for any upside breakout in the Aug crude also. It didn't do it today but it can tomorrow or Friday. Also, grains are a 'must' watch! Slight resistance encountered. Now watch for support.

Bob M
(Wed Jul 16 1997 22:47)

(Wed Jul 16 1997 22:48)
Just finished reading a Reuters story on today's silver action. They said it was because of the tame inflation report. My thought is that the silver slide was influenced to some degree by Kodak's lower than expected earnings...What's bad for big yellow is bad for silver? Just a thought.

Bob M
(Wed Jul 16 1997 22:52)
I think it is time to begin to accumulate mining shares as I believe that in this stock feeding frenzy, it is becoming increasingly difficult to locate undervalued sectors, thus before this bull is done running, the fund managers and manipulators will squeeze every last dime from the market. Once gold stabilizes after the US unloads some of its bullion, the mining shares will attract attention and also frequent takeovers and acquisitions will occur, and the mining sector will begin to move in earnest. This will also signal the end of the bull in stocks.,.

(Wed Jul 16 1997 22:58)
@the scene
Jojo -- Gastronomic trading! All too true usually! That's why so many traders are just day traders. They sleep easier! They may miss an overnight or over weekend move but it certainly is easier on the dreams

Lan Man
(Wed Jul 16 1997 23:02)
To Geff@Kodak Earnings
The announcement indicated that the poor results were from the digital products end of the business...

(Wed Jul 16 1997 23:05)

welcome back. you are a permanent fixture and
tort NEEDS you!!

Big Time Tom
(Wed Jul 16 1997 23:10)
Buying high and selling low
John ( @home ) wrote: "This is it. I quit. I'm taking my loses as soon as the bullion dealer opens in the morning. . . . It's all over now but the crying."

Well, as they say, John, the average person buys high and sells low. But I don't get it. Why on earth would you sell at these historically low prices? So you can buy when the price goes back up?--or perhaps buy blue chip stocks at historically high prices? And if the regular market does decline 20% or 30%, will you then sell your blue chip stocks at their lower prices as well? If you were a trader hoping to time the market, or if you were desperate for cash, that would be one thing. But this does not seem to be your reasoning. So why capitulate now?

Like you, I'll be KRY-ing myself to sleep tonight. It seems to me, however, that this is a time for calm, not panic, and certainly not a time for hysteria over the perceived victory of socialism. So hang in there, my friend. Do what you have to do, but don't do it compulsively. And lest you think I am lecturing you, rest assured that I am lecturing myself much more than I am lecturing you.


(Wed Jul 16 1997 23:11)
The Need to Devalue
Seems like even Germany wants to join the Contagion

(Wed Jul 16 1997 23:18)
Cherokee: Thanks for the welcome back and I'll try and be of some comfort to Tort....even if he is a lawyer!...What's your take on Gold???? Are we near the bottom or is the pain going to continue indefinetly???...Good to hear from you BRO!...EBN Gold up .40 and Silver down 2 cents and I'm exhausted from the endless road-trip,so goodnight all!

(Wed Jul 16 1997 23:22)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Technical Bounce or time to Scale UP????

(Wed Jul 16 1997 23:25)
Dan Ascani ( former associate of Robert Prechter, the man who put Elliott Wave on the map ) writes an excellent Elliott market letter and has been consistently calling for $300 gold followed by a test of $280, ditto $4 for silver to test $3.50. He's also calling for 9600 Dow and top Aug. - Sept. His view is that we're headed for serious deflation.

On another subject, the charts shown here in recent days have been terrific. Can anyone post a long term bond/gold ratio chart? Arguments here have prevailed on the gold price/interest rate correlation and it would be good to see it in the flesh.

Wonderful site - thoroughly enjoy the stimulating debate not to mention the jokes. . .


(Wed Jul 16 1997 23:38)
let us stop and consider why us goldbugs have been so wrong on precious metals and the market.

1. goldbugs are Logical thinking folks
2. this is no longer a logical world ( if it ever was )
a. gold , a solid substance, difficult to mine and long treasured
by all is losing value.
b. paper, a less solid substance, easy to make and fabricate is
gaining value by the day.
c. tobacco, a substance smoked for hundreds of years ( a personal
choice ) is villified by the government, but the very same
government is subsidizing farmers to grow the stuff
d. young people, heady with energy, whipped up to frenzies with noise
called music, high on dope, sated with material things, resort to
putting holes in their bodies ( 3-5 in ears, in tongues, through
belly-buttons and other parts of the body ) harking back to the
days when savages did the same
e Times-Warner reports a remarkable improvment of earnings from a
loss of 28c to a loss of 9c. the stock goes up 4 points
f dna evidence is a one way street. it can be used to free the
innocent? but is not good enough to convict the quilty

the list is endless but the above should be enough to put the point across

(Wed Jul 16 1997 23:45)
JOHN ( @home ) : This is it. I quit.....
John, you are not alone, I have had some 30k down days.
But the Market action at present is ABSURD. Look at today's
record NASDAQ gain, but realize the number of advancing
issues were 2387 vs 2011 Down. What this shows is that the
Market specialists are running up, just a few issues, to keep
the game in play. But we are near the end, simply because
there is no way to sustain these gains. When the money comes
out of these inflated issues, a lot of it will go to the
precious metals sector. Hang in there, because there is one
thing worse than selling at a loss and thats selling at the BOTTOM.
Best regards Schippi

(Wed Jul 16 1997 23:56)
in sack-o-tomatoes
JoJo: Interesting take on the green-eyed monster eyeing boomer retirement money. I've often thought the same thing, but dismissed it because the oldest boomers are just now turning 50 and have another 10 working years in front of them. Hard to keep the game going that long, I reckon; and that's what'll be needed to optimize profits. But IF the Greenie-eyed monster *can* keep the ball in play another decade or so before he strikes, he'll break the backs not only of all the boomer faithful, but also of all the suspicious boomers out there -- like thisee here old goldbug.

Miro: Thx for the correction. Unbelievable wealth. I heard that Gates alone now has 1/256ths of all the wealth in the country. Soon, he may surpass the all-time record: Rockerfeller's 1/65ths.