Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Thu Jul 17 1997 00:07)
After lurking for about 2 years in this discussion group, I am
very surprised and shock to see so many of you who are very
educated and knowledgable in the market lose money. The way
you guys are trading is to pick top or bottoms. There will always
be someone would say Gold is bottoming because of key reversal
or due to heavy selling. Or the Dow is very high now. It will
go into correction.
You guys are all missing one thing. TREND !!! Do you know what
is the meaning of trading with the TREND. What is the TREND in
Gold market now ?? It is down !!! What do you do ?? Sell short
only in any retracement!! Never go long !! How about the DOW
or SP500 ? What is the TREND ??? It is up. What do you do ??
Buy long only in any retracement !! Never sell short.

Learn this lesson !! Otherwise you guys will always be broke
and poor. Nobody can predict the top and bottom.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 00:07)
The problem with Gates is that when the market crashes so does Gates. for him to get his hands on that much money he would have to sell his shares and wouldn't that be interesting!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 00:22)
Grim hours in the silver pits as the final half led to woebegone cries of how, who, why, and where is the bottom, wasnt it right there below me? No more there as traders end this confused day with ankles up and bellies down. Hopeful questions of how high soon twist and contort to how far is down, and who will survive the slide. Brothers in arms, now foes to the foil, wish they had taken any other course but the one that found them today benighted, blighted, and scorned by capricious fates and elusive charity. Oh, how to you, as also I, here and now count our sorrows and worries shall be spent before their full worth due. And now, my brother kind, remember my face, as tomorrow, the fist high shouting raised beckons to ransom today perchance to stave tomorrows reckoning.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 00:23)
TREND: Aye, you be right in your way. But we goldbugs be contrary buggers, many of us right now in Davy Jones Locker still clutchin their pieces of eight from ages ago. We be so contrary, some times we be right when everyone else is wrong. And don't be tellin' me about stopped clocks, we had no stopped clocks on the Spanish Main and we still got the gold, though at times we went down with it.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 00:25)

as far as i'm concerned the bottom has been in for the last
two weeks. currently buying the physical commodity. no more
futures on gold or silver until they definitively break-out.
the price is so low that, imo, they are a buy, as long as
there is no speculator on the other side. with the physical
element in hand, i can withstand, all attempts to wrest it
from me. every day they continue their downward spiral, the
opportunity increases. options are the only vehicle for me,
on these manipulated metals. they grow cheaper by the day.
one day, they will pay with their hides, for driving
such a noble represenative to a premature grave. when
the earth is a smoldering cinder, then, and only then,
will gold have no value. until then, i will continue
to accumulate and appreciate its' value as a secure
store of exchange ( imm ) . the only difference will be how
much it cost to accumulate. at these prices, i'm
ecstatic. someone posted the prices for gold options
way in the future ( tort? ) . these are incredibly cheap,
relative to the time they encompass! i shorted aug beans
today and caught some of the limit move down. this contract
has a long way to go ( down ) if the weather holds for a week or two.
only the current contract has higher prices. kap-n-kev
can probably shed some light on beans, as he hit the nail ( bean )
on the head last year.

we have been invaded by a pack-rat claiming ancestry from a
kitty-cat. after alienating almost everyone, he cannot understand
why he is being ostracized. he has been given a psuedo-nym
appropriate for his stature. please welcome---hep-rat-cat
to the fold! he begs for attention with gnashing, yellow
fangs. yet, when given what he deserves, he cannot understand
enmity! maybe your style of prose will enable him to better
understand the ability of honey to draw the bear.

cherokee!; ) biter-of-the-bit-------------------

(Thu Jul 17 1997 00:32)
RJ Superb, excellent! To think I was just going to ask you what happened to silver. I will never peek under your skirts again my friend. BTW, what the @#$%$% did happen to silver!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 00:41)
Waste not.....
Cherokee - Regarding telltale signs of a rat, a coping method: When first you notice a rat turd, look no further, for indeed, it was left by a rat, and will certainly smell the same. This is a great time saver and denies the rat what he wishes most, to proudly display his turd in hope that others will call it gold.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 00:44)
Roebear - Stayed out of the hooch, but got the skirt hiked up high. The world is an interesting place.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 00:49)
Roebear - Silver got whacked. There will be a test soon of two hallowed benchmarks, 300 and 4.00. Wouldnt it be poetic if we got both the same day? A close at those marks would confirm, we are all through the looking glass.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 00:51)
@the scene
RJ -- More like the final half hour. Not that the previous rest of the day did much to 'glamorize' it! I will say that this 4.18 price can lend a bit of a floor to it. But only if it will. Otherwise, another dime down, or so, is in its' more immediate future. That, if seen, should make a good temporary buy, at least.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 00:51)

eloquence berefit of elegance. what a waste.
tom petty was tu?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 01:01)
RJ If I remember your past postings, are you not short gold and long silver? That is an unusual combo? Help me out here I'm green on the fancy stuff. Is it some sort of hedge or just your read on the market ( or both ) . I feel the pain on the silver, but hey, it's great to be silver : ( (

(Thu Jul 17 1997 01:03)
@the scene
RJ -- I hate even numbers! In either direction! I.E., if we see 300 gold and/or 4.00 silver, we ARE going lower! It might bounce first, but they'll go lower. TOO much 'expectation' at those precise numbers IMHO. Personally, I kind of like reversals just above those numbers. Else, we'll go down to just above some other 'even' number to do it. Comment ( s ) are most welcome!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 01:05)
Roebear - Yes I am long silver and very, very short gold. Will hold off silver buys and put on new gold shorts. Silver will recover faster that gold.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 01:17)
@the market
EBN shows gold up 1.12. Wonder where they get the .12? Why not .10? Isn't that .02 difference more or less equivalent to pulling flees off a dog?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 01:23)
@the market
Guess they heard me. Now up 'only' 1.10.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 01:32)
cherokee An Earl he is not ( who could be? ) , but from a literary view RJ's 00:22 was a good piece of work. Especially,,,,oh oh, metal forum, not JollyRoger, Gold Bart Gold! And to all a Goldnight!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 01:32)
Someone requested a chart of gold/bond. This one is not very elegant but is the ratio of gold to the US bond. Both derived from the the monthly continuing futures contract.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 01:35)
Eldorado How about posting EBN up 50.02?
NTI: Goldnight!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 01:37)
TREND... I agree with you about trends, but I imagine that most traders may already know that the trend is our friend. The question I have is how many days does it take for you to determine that a trend change has been made ( how many days to define a new trend - how long will you wait after an apparent bottom? ) .

For some previous posts, comparing today with 1980 indicates a very long downtrend from 800 to 320, which means one should not have touched the gold market for the last 17 years. However, inside that time span gold went from 286 to 501, from 339 to 438, from 339 to 475, from 326 to 407, and 9 other moves of over $40, which lasted an average of 2 1/2 months each. An advance of over $40 can increase a gold fund's nav by 20-30%. Of course for each of these advances, gold also dropped. How far down must gold go before an uptrend becomes a downtrend?

For some, and perhaps your opinion, is that the current trend is down from Feb 96 when gold hit 416. During that downtrend, there have been several rallies which returned over 10% in gold funds, each time, including this recent Feb, where gold moved $23 in 12 days. I certainly agree with you that when the trend turned down, it was time to sell. I also admit that many rallies were short and caused losses from whipsaws.

The problem I have found is that long term trends change direction almost identical to short term whipsaws, and to wait too long for a confirmed trend change can usually miss most of the move, except for the truly long moves ( every 2-3 years ) . If one is not careful, a premature exit due to a misread downtrend can miss out on a long uptrend.

Picking the bottom is tough because you don't know it was the bottom until the next day when the market is up, which makes it a factor of luck. However, it doesn't take luck to recognize that current market statistics and international fundamentals, combined with massive short positions place us in similar conditions to historic lows before long term uptrends, such as January 1993.

For gold fund info:

(Thu Jul 17 1997 02:32)
to all who supplied info regarding physical buying. Yes, I have heard much of the same advice/info regarding tax and purity factors. I own a decent size roll of Eagles but I want/NEED the pure to hold in my hands. And my dad is also inquiring nowadays.

That being said, I will fly to Vienna and stop buy the concert hall to take in some is that for shipping and handling? the belly of a 747!


now, if that numismatic guy will stop calling...

(Thu Jul 17 1997 02:39)
Rick there?
Isn't someone SUPPOSED to be delivering some product about now?? Tomorrow May be the RECKONING! the MOON?


RECKONING...what a fine CD by Gerry and the Boys. there has to be some "fat-man" fans out there

(Thu Jul 17 1997 02:48)
whoops. My dads name is mixed up.


Omega Man
(Thu Jul 17 1997 02:56)
@ EB's house...
Everybody come back! We'll order a pizza! EB will tell scary the Betties? poker?...go to bed?


(Thu Jul 17 1997 04:52)
News from Japan appears to have been released after markets closed.
Thai defaults dampen bond trust funds of
Sumitomo Bank subsidiary
Defaults in Thailand are set to push the unit prices of two bond trust
funds managed by Sumitomo Bank's investment trust arm below the
initial purchase price of 10,000 yen when the accounts are settled for the
three months ending July, The Nihon Keizai Shimbun learned

Between 1% and 2% of the total working assets managed by SBIM
Investment Trust Management Co. are invested in bonds issued by
troubled Finance One Plc, one of Thailand's largest financing firms.

Finance One was ordered by the Thai government to suspend
operations for one month in late June due to failures in property
investments and corporate acquisitions.

The present unit price of the S.B. Three A fund which will settle
accounts for the present term on Thursday stands at about 9,985 yen.
The price for the S.B. Superquarter A fund, due for account settlement
on July 24, is calculated at 9,870 yen.

SBIM Investment Trust started management of the two funds in 1994
with combined assets of 60 billion yen, mainly selling to corporate and
individual investors.

Both open end-type funds are categorized as among the safest by the
company's risk assessment grades.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 05:35)
This from Korea: 07-17-97 : Banks Feared to Face Liquidity Problem

The Korean banking community is feared to face serious liquidity problems because of a
surge in nonperforming debts. That possibility has been further heightened by creditor banks'
decision Tuesday to protect the financially troubled Kia Business Group under an
anti-bankruptcy pact.

Korean banks have seen their bad debts snowballing rather than declining since last April,
when domestic banks struck an anti-bankruptcy agreement _ a desperate effort to prevent
chain insolvencies of corporations following the collapse of Hanbo and Sammi. As the
protective measure temporarily suspends all debt payments, creditor banks will need to
restructure all liabilities and provide additional credit under an overall restructuring scheme.

The pact also calls for banks to hold off collecting loans for two months and allows
companies designated as beneficiaries to continue transactions with the banks. Kia Business
Group was the third beneficiary of the protective pact after the brewery giant Jinro Business
Group and a textile and department store group Dainong. The total amount of suspended
debt repayments or loans and payment guarantees for the Jinro, Dainong and Kia groups,
which are affected by the pact, reached about 7.19 trillion won.

It broke down to 1.22 trillion won for Jinro, 602.7 billion won for Dainong and 5.38 trillion
won for Kia. The figure is tantamount to three times that of Korean banks' combined bad
debts as of the end of 1996, which totaled 2.4 trillion won, according to the bank watchdog
Office of Bank Supervision.

To designate business concerns as beneficiaries of the anti-bankruptcy pact is a huge burden
for domestic commercial banks as they are forced to forego principal and interest payments.
Financial experts predict that following the three designations, domestic banks are feared to
suffer an annual loss of 800 billion won in interest income. Besides the interest-income losses,
banks also have to provide additional emergency funds to those financially troubled

The government-run Korea Development Bank topped the list of banks which had granted
loans and payment guarantees to the three troubled business concerns with 1.38 trillion won.
Korea First Bank came next with 947.9 billion won, followed by Cho Hung Bank with 651.1
billion won, Shinhan Bank with 525.4 billion won and Seoul Bank with 477.2 billion won.
Credit extended by the Commercial Bank of Korea amounts to 401.2 billion won.

Other credit providers are Hanil Bank ( 282 billion won ) , Korea Long Term Credit Bank
( 192.2 billion won ) and Korea Exchange Bank ( 169.6 billion won ) . ( KSJ )

(Thu Jul 17 1997 05:40)
This from Korea: 07-17-97 : South, North Korean Soldiers Exchange Fire in Demilitarized Zone

By Lee Sung-yul Staff reporter

South and North Korean soldiers exchanged light artillery and rifle fire yesterday in the
Demilitarized Zone after a group of armed North Korean soldiers violated the border.

No South Korean casualties were reported, but a hardened bunker in the DMZ was partially
damaged in a 23-minute exchange of fire, the Joint Chiefs of Staff ( JCS ) said. It was the first
time in years that North Koreans fired even mortar and anti-tank shells against South Korean
soldiers at the DMZ, though they often fire rifle shots, a JCS spokesman said.

``It's apparently an intentional provocation by the North, and we will protest it through the
Military Armistice Commission,'' the spokesman said. After the incident, the JCS ordered
Army units along the heavily fortified buffer zone to step up defense postures against another
North Korean provocation. The fire fight broke out after seven North Korean army soldiers
crossed the Military Demarcation Line ( MDL ) , the center line of the four-kilometer-wide
buffer zone, in the mountainous Chorwon, Kangwon Province area at 10:57 a.m.

South Korean Army guards warned them to return to the northern side through loudspeakers
several times. ``You are crossing the MDL in violation of the Armistice Agreement, and you
must take responsibility for the results of your violation. Return immediately,'' repeatedly
warned South Korean soldiers. But as the North Korean soldiers ignored the warning and
intruded some 70 meters south of the MDL, South Korean soldiers fired about 200 warning
shots in the air with K-2 rifles at 11:02 a,m., the JCS spokesman said.

One minute later, North Koreans in two DMZ guard posts, some 1.3 km to 2.5 km away,
fired about 80 aimed rifle and machine gun shots at two South Korean guard posts, said the
spokesman. South Korean guards responded by opening machine gun fire, and then the
North Koreans fired two 82-mm anti-tank recoilless cannon shells and a score of mortar
shells at the southern side. The shells hit close to two South Korean guard posts in the
southern side of the DMZ.

In response, South Korean soldiers fired scores of rifle shots, and a 57-mm recoilless gun
was fired at 11:25 a.m. Some 20 minutes later, South Korean soldiers suggested a cease-fire
through the loudspeaker, and the seven North Korean intruders returned to the northern side
at 12:02 p.m., the spokesman said. An ambulance was seen entering a North Korean guard
post at 12:20 p.m., but casualties among the northern soldiers were not confirmed, he said.

There have been countless incidents along the border area since the 1950-53 Korean War.
The incident was the first since North and South Korean patrol boats exchanged fire when a
North Korean boat crossed the sea border in the West Sea June 5. No casualties or damage
was reported at that time. On April 10, six North Korean soldiers violated the MDL in
Chorwon, and ignoring South Korean guards' warning, opened fire and returned after more
than two hours.

In March 1992, North Korean soldiers fired 40 aimed machine gun shots at South Korean
guards in the buffer zone. The border incident took place while South Korea is shipping food
aid to the Stalinist North, where people are starving for lack of food. With its economy in
shambles, North Korea has a 1.1 million-strong army. Defectors from the North say
Pyongyang has finished preparations to invade the South.

Officials from the two Koreas, the United States and China are to meet in New York Aug. 5
for preparatory peace talks.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 05:45)
This from Korea: 07-17-97 : Government Officials Strive to Prop Up Credit Standing of Korean
Firms Abroad; Following Insolvency Report of Kia

By Yoo Cheong-mo Staff reporter

With the overseas credit standing of Korean enterprises and banks declining in the wake of
the insolvency of the Kia Group Tuesday, government officials are briskly moving to stem
adverse ripple effects. The Ministry of Finance and Economy ( MOFE ) said yesterday that the
government will be ready to mobilize the central bank's foreign-currency reserves to help ease
the capital crunch at domestic financial institutions. ``Adverse publicity stemming from the Kia
crisis will likely drive foreign lenders to raise rates for Korean banks and enterprises, in the
name of the 'Korean premium,''' said MOFE spokesman Chung Eui-dong.

``The ministry will ensure that sufficient liquidity will be extended to Kia's creditors in order to
keep their overseas credit standing afloat.''In addition, said the spokesman, the ministry will
strengthen its efforts to monitor the Korean premium in international financial markets, and
launch a publicity campaign to stress that the andi-bankruptcy pact applied to Kia is aimed at
normalizing the management of the auto giant. The Bank of Korea ( BOK ) has already
released $1.12 billion Tuesday into the market in the form of repurchase agreements ( RP ) in
order to ease liquidity problems. According to industry sources, adverse side effects resulting
from the Kia insolvency are already visible in overseas capital centers.

Overseas lending rates applicable to Korean enterprises and financial firms are rapidly rising,
while the won-dollar exchange rate has again entered an upward cqrve, rising from 890 won
to the dollar in early trading Tuesday to 892.40 won yesterday. Furthermore, the return rate
on floating rate notes ( FRNs ) and other overseas bonds issued by Korean companies rose by
0.02 to 0.1 percentage points immediately following reports of Kia's insolvency. The prices of
Kia-issued overseas convertible bonds ( CBs ) crashed to 55-percent the level of the issuance
prices from the previous 93 percent in the New York stock market. Noting that Kia-issued
overseas bonds are worth over $210 million, analysts said that a possible simultaneous
stampede by foreign creditors demanding early redemptions may further worsen Kia's
financial difficulties.

``Considering Kia's position as Korea's eighth-largest conglomerate in terms of assets and the
world's 16th-biggest automaker, the shocks stemming from the auto giant's collapse can not
be compared to the previous conglomerate bankruptcies, such as Hanbo, Sammi and Jinro,''
said an anahyst at Daewoo Securhties. A considerable rise i; the Korean premium will be
inefita`le, the analyst said, adding that his office has been inundated with inquiries from foreign
financial officials.

But a Seoul bank executive voiced a slightly optimistic view, and said, ``Kia's financial
difficulties were known among foreign investors during the past several weeks. Thus, the
impact of Kia's insolvency on the Korean premium may not be that enormous.'' Analysts
forecast that the Kia crisis will also create extensive adv`rse effects on the local capital

A depressed mood continued to dominate the Seoul stock market yesterday, as the
composite stock market index, which dropped 9.4 points to 755.05 Tuesday on the news of
Kia's insolvency, dipped to the 740 level as of yesterday afternoon. ``A blacklist containing
names of heavily debt-ridden conglomerates vulnerable to the anti-bankruptcy pact is already
circulating. A crash in the rumored enterprises' share prices may send the overall stock
market int/ a protracted slump,'' said an economist. Noting that the trading of corporate
bonds has been virtually suspended, he said, ``From now on, most local conglomerates (
except such super chaebols as Samsung, Hyundai and LG, will have far more difficulty raising
operational funds.''

In a separate move to stave off a chain reaction of bankruptcies, meanwhile, MOFE said that
the government will offer emergency payment guarantees, worth 500 billion won, to Kia's
5,000-odd parts suppliers and subcontractors. Th Ofbice of Natinnal Tax Administration also
promise` to offer various tax favors, including an extension of the tax-payment deadline, to
Kia's suppliers. The ministry has also urged local merchant banks to refrain from rushing to
retrieve their existing loans from the other chaebols mired in similar financial difficulties.
Analysts said that the Kia crisis will provide an additional momentum to MOFE's drive to
crack down on the excessive debts of large conglomerates.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 06:01)
EDITORIAL, THAILAND BUSINESS DAY ( Now they tell us! ) Living on
From Past

Business Day
Welcomes your opinions or

Borrowing over $80 billion from
abroad over the past decade
meant living precariously with
other people's money and on
borrowed time. Time has run out,
and the whole country has been
hit, not only by enormous financial
losses, but also by the shame and
disgrace of being a debtor
desperately in need of more loans
from foreigners and begging for
ass sistance.

To placate foreign lenders and
investors, the country's goods,
businesses and other resources
have had to be put up for sale at
discounted prices by means of the
floating baht which has done
anything but float. It has sunk.
One thing is clear: the de facto
devaluation of the baht was not a
planned and deliberate choice; it
was forced upon the country by
foreign lenders and investors who
understandably wanted their
money back in a hurry and wisely
refused to continue to bankroll
the orgy of materialistic excess for
which the economic ruling elite of
Bangkok is justly notorious. .

Relatively few of the people who
have brought the economy to its
knees will be held a accountable -
they are still very much in the tight
circle of movers and shakers who
are making sure that official
bailout measures put public
money in their pockets fi irst.

The only way for the our
economy to regain dignity is to
face up to realities and learn from
past mistakes. The obvious
lessons, domestic savings and
investment spending, must go
hand-in-hand, without excessive
reliance on foreign capital.
Long-range development is better
than short-term profiteering and
deferred consumption is
absolutely crucial to long-term
sustainable economic growth and

As obvious as the lessons of the
past decade may be, putting them
into practice does not come
naturally to some of our business
leaders. Greed dies hard.

Official agencies also have
lessons to learn. The Bank of
Thailand must stop seeing itself as
the grand savior and equity holder
of mismanaged businesses. There
is no heroism in doing this. The
country will never produce
world-class competitive
businesses if the central bank
keeps acting like a parent raising
utterly spoiled children. Badly-run
businesses must be allowed to fail
to make room be well-run
enterprises. Equity holders must
learn some hare lessons.
Government leaders should set
the tone for the principles under
which our business and economic
system operates. The role of the
government should be to ensure a
fair and level playing field, and
businesses with a proven track
record should receive full support
and encouragement. .

As for foreign loans, there is
nothing wrong with them as long
as the proceeds are put to
productive use. Here, too, the
lessons of the past are plain to
see, and if past mistakes are
repeated in the future, then the
shame and ridicule the nation is
facing today will undoubtedly
come back to haunt us.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 06:15)
...good morning...if it is morning wherever you are...great stuff...keep it coming...

(Thu Jul 17 1997 06:15)
Donald please condense the data abit more please!! Good info though, are they takin pot shots at each other over the 2.5 miles demil zone.Do they like Libby's Deep-Browned Beans cause I'm eating a can now, cold and their delicous, maybe we should send them a case or two??? Very high in Fibre!!

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jul 17 1997 06:21)
TED: I THOUGHT I smelled Tabouli and Curried Bean Curd! Welcome back.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 06:32)
...I'm reasonable knowledgeable in goldstocks...but haven't ventured in commodities ( probably, that's why I'm still alive, few bruises though ) ...could you for my benefit and perhaps someother lurker ( s ) ( prospective clients ) take us through, an example of how a small gold "short"sale at these levels ( 319.00 ) , throught leasing ( monthly implied rate of 2.60% ) and give us the risk/reward summations, and period of time...given that you're still reccommending your clients to continue the trend...

(Thu Jul 17 1997 06:43)
Good Morning, Gold should make a slight come back off yesterday's low how low can low get!! I'd like to say I'm eating not breakfast material right at the moment,and I think I fell in love with the waitress lastnight. She has GOLDEN HAIR??

(Thu Jul 17 1997 06:59)
Steve Perth
..a follow up on your story...Conflict of Interest?..naanh! this certainly inspires confidence in Howard & Costello

(Thu Jul 17 1997 07:01)
NOMERCY: All that bad news from the Pacific Rim and it seems that there is no reaction in gold or silver. The European stock markets don't seem to care either. What does it take to stop this Stock Bull and Gold Bear?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 07:03)
more reaction to RBA sale
The Federal Opposition has renewed its call for an investigation into Treasurer Peter Costello's role in the Reserve Bank's decision to sell off its gold deposits.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 07:07)
Tortfeasor -- In the past two weeks I have received two letters. One from my soon to be, former broker, and another from my real time data provider. What do they have in common? Both letters were to inform me of a class action lawsuit pending against them. Go figure? These things must 'always' happen in "bull" markets, right? :- ) )

(Thu Jul 17 1997 07:18)
Mike Sheller: Thanks for the welcome back! EBN Gold up 1.55 and Silver up 3 cents....Like you when you went to Florida,I missed my friends at Kitco and am glad to be back...I'm thinking of buying ABX or HM this morning and would appreciate some comments ....Tort: Where's the mornin joke???

(Thu Jul 17 1997 07:22)
...Peter Munk, in his interview last week, pointed his finger to the EC for gold's bear market; my read, is that he expects ( wants? ) gold to remain in the doghouse for the next 6 to 9 months, until EC formalizes golds role, in backing the new euro currency...
...Placer's CEO, basically said the same thing, saying that he had never seen so much negativism in gold in his last 16 years.
...perhaps they're applying reverse psychology, to lure the funds in a trap ( wishful thinking? ) which presently remains the only Major reason for a rally, though there's a lot of smoke throughout, the parabolic dow, clinton case ( s ) , volatility in currencies, and above all "unexpected" and uncontrollable surprises for the spin doctors. They must be commended, for the great sustaining hype, as more and more are jumping on the bandwagon and see the world through coloured glasses. ( my son who's in 2nd year college, told me that his teacher was reccommending his class to buy mutual funds ) !

(Thu Jul 17 1997 07:30)
Joke of the day
OK Ted, good morning and here's the joke.

A yuppie opened the door of his BMW, when suddenly a car came along and hit the door, ripping it off completely. When the police arrived at the scene, the yuppy was complaining bitterly about the damage to his precious BMW. "Officer, look what they've done to my Beeeeemer!!!", he whined. "You yuppies are so materialistic, you make me sick!!!", retorted the officer. "You're so worried about your stupid BMW, that you didn't even notice that your left arm was ripped off!!!" "Oh noooo..." replied the yuppy, finally noticing the bloody left shoulder where his arm once was, "Where's my Rolex!!!!"

(Thu Jul 17 1997 07:31)
Cherokee ( 00:25 ) Thanks Bro! But ain't that cat creature a "bud" of Mooney???....Mornin Panda!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 07:34)
That is interesting. I there were more of me I would bring a class action suit against my two former commodities brokers. What a bunch of losers. Actually It was I who was the loser, but I won't be losing from investing with them again. I received some papers to file some beaurocratic complaint against my broker. I haven't take the time to do it yet, I guess wondering if it is worth the time.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 07:35)
Tort: GREAT ONE!! and a sign of the times...Missed your jokes in my stress-filled odyssey....Did I bring back a turn around for the depressed yellow stuff and is this the time to jump in fer more...

(Thu Jul 17 1997 07:42)
Tort: Got some great stories to tell from my island odyssey and one of the people who welcomed me back the most was "Mr.Big" himself...Will get an e-mail off to ya later today or tomorrow as I've got alot of errands and BS to do.....

(Thu Jul 17 1997 07:49)
Ted, the cannon's pointed at you and I just lit off the powder. I'm off to the spa.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 08:10)
NOMERCY: There was a story in our local paper about our rural 6th grade class. The kids are playing the market with a hypothetical stock portfolio their teacher helps them pick. I hope that he is training them on how to use their Visa card to pay for it.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 08:14)
..just some thoughts on the bull market...could it be the Feds are being conned by big brokerage houses who could've a few reporters on the take...notice how "expectations" are always exceeded and CNN today reports that Japan's trade surplus only grew 27% when they were expecting 60%...
...I must go and buy some coloured glasses...I'm missing out
...they also reported that Microsoft plans on hiring 3600 more employees in the coming year, expanding its workforce by NEARLY 19% ( they have 22,000 ) world wide. my view "that's" their major problem to cope with...higher unemployment worldwide... Australia, Canada, Germany & France have 'admitted' high numbers ( probably larger ) . The US includes part-timers...their minimum wage is a laughable $4.25 per hour ( below poverty level ) and they're bragging, when the MOST of their citizens standard of dropping every year.
To-day's Dow "clearly" is a reflection of their economy...the big boys are getting richer...the masses poorer....
"Middle income" is being squeezed..and are now hoping on the DOW!
...cycles haven't been "abolished" it'll end as ' can fool some of the people some of the time etc. etc.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 08:14)
EBN Gold up 1.85 and Silver up 3 cents...S+P futures up 1.75...

(Thu Jul 17 1997 08:44)

The little birds which informs me of the metals market action have opined that yesterdays end of day bashing in silver was engineered by the same player who has been at it all along. They are in fact a fund. They have roped in the technical trend followers and blasted the stops of the 'Disciplined' traders. Today we go in and by another large load of silver options. I will post some interesting calculations later in the day to give you an idea of the absurdity of what is being offered. There is no guarantee we will win our bet. In fact we are going to be large underdogs. However, if we do win, the payoff will be phenomenal. These are tickets that are worth owning.

Looks like today will be another massive up day for the dollar. The other two 'strong' currencies ( BP & JY ) are now heading south to join the rest of the civilized world. I know not when, but soon we shall follow. Then we shall have a complete cycle of competitive devaluation. Once our run for the bottom begins the metals will respond in dollar terms, just like they are now responding in JY and BP terms.

An interesting point about sentiment. If you will notice, over the last few days the price of gold in dollars is essentially unchanged in dollars are HIGHER in every other currency. Yet we have an ever increasing call here for lower prices and questions about 'how do I get short?,. News follows price. People are now fully aware of the 'reasons' for golds decline. Even though the move from 332 to 314 was largely engineered by a single fund ( same goes for silver ) , people are now extrapolating this to large scale macro forces. Its ^&%^&%.

Nomercy: Gold lease rates are all quoted in annualized terms. For confirmation all you need do is look at the difference between August and September gold. If the lease rates were as you say the contracts would be in backwardation. They are not.

Glenn: Be very careful in writing naked calls. There is no guarantee that the market will move up in a continuous fashion. Though it may look like a line on the charts, the reality may be that no volume is taking place and therefore there is no possibility of delta hedging. In addition spreads may widen to the point where maintaining the hedge becomes far too costly. For a recent example one only has to look down the aisle in the PGM pit.

Heading for the big city. More later. Good luck to all.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 08:45)
NOMERCY: You may recall an excellent piece Steve Puetz did about two weeks ago detailing the difference between "economic" conditions and "financial" conditions. Stocks are reacting to the good economic news and ignoring the horrible financial news we see this morning from the Pacific Rim. Stock buyers do so at their peril.

An afterthought on the Korea news. The Australian press reported that South Korea was the likely purchaser of the Australian gold. I wonder what they will do now that they seem to need dollars more than gold?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 08:45)
NOMERCY: You may recall an excellent piece Steve Puetz did about two weeks ago detailing the difference between "economic" conditions and "financial" conditions. Stocks are reacting to the good economic news and ignoring the horrible financial news we see this morning from the Pacific Rim. Stock buyers do so at their peril.

An afterthought on the Korea news. The Australian press reported that South Korea was the likely purchaser of the Australian gold. I wonder what they will do now that they seem to need dollars more than gold?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 08:46)
NOMERCY: You may recall an excellent piece Steve Puetz did about two weeks ago detailing the difference between "economic" conditions and "financial" conditions. Stocks are reacting to the good economic news and ignoring the horrible financial news we see this morning from the Pacific Rim. Stock buyers do so at their peril.

An afterthought on the Korea news. The Australian press reported that South Korea was the likely purchaser of the Australian gold. I wonder what they will do now that they seem to need dollars more than gold?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 08:48)
Cherokee--We must reconvene our grain summit. E-mail me at your convenience.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 08:49)
Good morning TED, Tort. I'm having a gawd awfull time getting in to this here web site. I don't know why. Other sites seem to work OK. Hmmm. 'They' must be out to get me! :-0

(Thu Jul 17 1997 09:08)
...thanks for your comments...I got the info. from Steven Kaplan's web page...I'll e-mail him your comments

(Thu Jul 17 1997 09:15)
FWIW,Stockmarkets cycletop July 18,gold cycle bottom July 21-23.
Good trading.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 09:27)
FWIW, 29 year cycle due to top out this summer.After this market decline,government price controls to follow,deflationary marketpsychology.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 09:30)
Re Donald 6:01 editorial. This makes interesting reading if one substitutes "USA" for "Thailand".

(Thu Jul 17 1997 10:17)
Earl, thanks for posting the gold/bond chart.Since the late seventies at least there has been a constant correlation between interest rates and the gold price: higher interest rates and higher gold prices, and vice versa.With the long bond having just broken 6.5% and likely headed lower, plus yesterday's CPI of 0.1%, the bear scenario continues to be supported. Who CARES?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 10:19)
Oh, please, please, give me your respect, Kitconans. I slaver for it.
I long for the respect of manchildren who hide behind pseudonyms,
proudly displaying their generitalia to passers-by.

It's not like we are blue-water diving here, where disorientation is
a problem even for experts. We are standing knee-deep in a wading
pool, and I am wailing on y'all while you are trying to get out by
tunneling through the plastic bottom.

Step out of the pool, Kitcokeheads. RJ is cupping his silver
like it was his life-preserver, only he's about to get dashed
against the rocks. Talk about an agenda. RJ wants to play
king of the hill and his weapon is long silver?

I am Hepcat, and I continue to dominate this site with my sagacity.
That and the fact that I am always more correct than anyone else who
posts here, and I don't expend any effort in doing it.

No wasted energy + always correct = The Black Cat of analysis

(Thu Jul 17 1997 10:20)
@DFW Airport
Bart@Kitco Could you post a brief explanation of why there is always
approx. a $10.00 difference in the price of US Eagles and the SA
Krugerrand ?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 10:41)
in sack-o-tomatoes
7/17/97 -- 9:38 AM

Thai police raid foreign brokerages

BANGKOK, Thailand ( AP ) - As Thailand frantically tries to stave off economic collapse, police raided the offices of at least two foreign brokerage companies Thursday to investigate who spread rumors that five commercial banks would be shut down.

The unprecedented raid signaled increasing frustration by Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh's administration over its failure to stop the economy from a free-fall that has escalated this month.

Squads of uniformed police at Capital Nomura Securities PCL and ABN AMRO Hoare Govett Asia Investment Research Ltd. demanded fax lists, tore through desks and attempted to read computer files.

The search seemed to center on the fax lists, which identify clients who receive regular reports from the brokerages. Also, police interrogated stock analysts about a rash of rumors that the central banks would close. The speculation jolted the stock market last week, prompting both the Thai central bank and the Thai Bankers Association to issue formal denials.

``They started with small talk, then asked for my views on the Thai economy and how I regarded these rumors about banks,'' said an analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity.

George Morgan, country manager for ABN AMRO, issued a statement that his company was positive toward the Thai stock market and planned to invest $60 million in the country by acquiring Asia Securities Trading Co. Ltd.

Tuesday, an aide to Chavalit said the government knew who was behind the rumors. Chavalit said Monday he believes a disgruntled person opposing government policy had started the rumors.

As Thailand appears to be lurching into its biggest economic crisis in 13 years, following a period of explosive growth financed largely by overseas investment, foreign executives say that some politicians and regulators have begun blaming foreigners for troubles.

An executive at one targeted brokerage said police believed the fax originated from Bangkok's Sathorn Road, where several foreign institutions are based, including Capital Nomura and AMRO.

Thirty policemen, some high-ranking, went through AMRO's office interrogating and photographing telephone operators, receptionists, analysts and top executives, witnesses said.

``Some people kept right on working like this happens every day,'' said one executive, who requested anonymity. ``But most were in such shock they could not continue to work.''

Morgan, who is also president of the Foreign Brokerage Association, paced nervously as uniformed officers interrogated his brokers in a conference room next to his office. He declined to talk to the press.

Thailand's financial sector is in a crisis due to bad loans made to property companies that overbuilt during the boom years and now cannot sell a glut of housing and office space. The government shut down 16 finance companies early this month.

Chavalit ordered a flotation of the currency, the baht, July 2, after repeated speculative attacks weakened foreign reserves. The baht promptly lost 15 percent of its value.


Bart, have you considered setting up a separate forum for anal retentive investors?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 10:48)
Front page headlines in local paper about dow breaking the 8000 barrier; sign of a top?......How many here had the dow on the front pages of their local paper ( not the business section ) ????

(Thu Jul 17 1997 10:50)
Daytraders - Interesting chart pattern right now on gold as today appears almost as an exact repeat of Tuesday from 10:00 onwards.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 10:54)
Can't wait till the speculators selling short have to actually buy physical gold. Apart from them losing money, it will be a pleasure watching the gold price go up by bidding between them and the commercials. Anyone know when the maggots have to pay up?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 10:55)
Hi Mooney: Excuse my IGNORANCE but what happened to gold on Tuesday's gold action as I wasn't in contact with the markets...

(Thu Jul 17 1997 10:55)
in sack-o-tomatoes
7/17/97 -- 9:26 AM

South Korean police: possible North Korean assassination

SEOUL, South Korea ( AP ) - South Korean police said they tightened security today after an intelligence report that North Korea is attempting to assassinate a high-ranking defector.

Police stepped up security at air and sea ports and were watching for two suspected assassins allegedly sent by North Korea to kill Hwang Jang Yop, officials said on condition of anonymity.

Hwang, 74, a former member of North Korea's top policy-making body, the Central Committee of the ruling Workers Party, defected to Seoul in April.

In a nationally televised news conference last week, Hwang warned that North Korea is fully prepared to unleash a war against South Korea as a desperate way out of its economic and food crisis.

Denouncing Hwang as a betrayer, North Korea vowed to retaliate.

Since his arrival in Seoul on April 20, Hwang has been under the protective custody of the Agency for National Security Planning.

Hwang, known as the chief architect of North Korea's ruling guidance, juche or self-reliance, is the highest-ranking Pyongyang official ever to defect to Seoul.

In February, Lee Han Young, 36, a cousin of a former mistress of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, was killed by an unidentified gunman outside Seoul. Lee defected to Seoul in the mid-1980s.

South Korean police suspected that it was the work of North Korean agents but failed to find clues.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 11:00)
Looks like DOW going below 8000 again. Quick panic..... sell sell sell.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 11:05)
North Korea building up for WAR!!!
Ron, Donald, BillD, Gunnrunner: In the wee hours a month ago we received an anonymous email which talked about "WAR IN KOREA." See ANONYMOUS GURU:

(Thu Jul 17 1997 11:10)
Ted - Is that you Bro? How'd the vacation go? Did you manage to get away from that hectic pace of life on that point of land on Cape Breton Island?
Check Bart's 24 hour gold chart and you will see that at about 10:00 AM on Tuesday AND today the price takes off ( upwards at about a 60 degree angle.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 11:20)

Mr. Mooney - How's that new diet? I know McDonald's had a 55 cent promotion
earlier this summer. It worked about as well as your 65 cent promotion. Don't
see you much on the Flag channel anymore, Mr. Mooney. Is it because you're
too weak to type?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 11:22)
Hi Mooney and yes it's ME....Am out the door for Sydney and when things slow down I'll get off an e-mail to you about my 23 day odyssey...and my latest real estate moves...I'm torn about buyin more AU shares before I close the damn door...See ya later! Tort: A missile is headed right at ya

(Thu Jul 17 1997 11:24)
O.K. V-man, I'll take the bait:

There is no way North Korea is going to start anything. I do not want to get into the reasons why on this site. Suffice it to say "others don't want them to..." ( ESPECIALLY the U. S. of A. because they would get their butts kicked down to their Antarctican environmental monitoring stations )

So, if some of you out there are waiting for some catostrphic, out of the blue MAJOR ( note the emphasis ) act of war in the next month or three to prompt a turnaround in gold/currency/financial markets, do not waste your options play money.

Have a nice day ( : ) )

(Thu Jul 17 1997 11:25)
McDonalds has a 60 second for your meal to be served or you get a free Big Mac in Australia. Don't know why they just don't give to 2 for 1 and call it quits.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 11:31)

Scott - Managers nixed that idea in the U.S.

Hey everyone - Do you know how to quiet a raging Mooney?
One word: McCoca-Flag

(Thu Jul 17 1997 11:34)
@the market
Crude being nice to me today.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 11:39)
August gold is making me dizzy today. I might go play with my yo yo or even better watch Telemall shopping on TV and buy a "Thighmaster" and a pair of "Blueblockers".

(Thu Jul 17 1997 11:43) support of the gold reserve system
When you think carefully about the demand and supply of money a reserve system is vital to the liquidity and trust placed by all in the system of global finance and exchange of goods and services.

The gold reserve system was instituted to provide a reference by which government banks would regulate the amount of national currency that could be printed and hold value in relation to other international currencies.

The dynamic mechanics behind cross-currency valuation is not elementary but the idea is simple enough. The gold standard required governments to restrict national currency supply by a multiple of the gold owned by the nation.

Gold had a long history as money and it was difficult to fake due to its chemical properties and weight; and, most important, scarce due to its lack of abundance on earth.

When you think about it gold is an excellent choice for a reserve currency. Gold's history as a precious metal in scarce supply provided an incentive for global explorers to seek new lands and discoveries. America was discovered by men searching for gold and a passge to the riches of the East.

The mining of gold created employment income that stimulated development of towns and transportation with other economic base mine developments. ( You didn't need a B.Sc. in computer science to be a miner. )

Gold was hard to find; generated economic activity; stinulated global discoveries; indirectly created economic infrastructure whenever found in significant mineable quantities. So it was logical and reasonable to use gold as a reference point in issuance of global currencies.

Over time, however, some major gold producing countries ( Canada ) decided to reduce the amount of gold owned in favour of G7 currencies and govt securities in proportion to the reletive economic strength of each power country. ( It is important to note the linchpin rationale for gold to divest gold in favour of US securities: canada is a subsidiary of the US, not quite the 51st state but certainly close. canada does 80% of its export business with the US and, with few exceptions, most of its significant industries are foreign controlled or owned - principally by US based global enterprises. )

As time rolled onward and the Information Age took root in the US economy a transformation or revolution in software, computing, and telecommunication industries created a competitive advantage for US based global conglomerates. The US economy ( and the world ) resurrected itself from the high-inflation of the mid-70's and then the stagflation of the 80-81 deep recession and slow decline of inflation thereafter from double digit growth rates. However, Govt deficit spending continued unabated since the 1970's irrespective of the neo-conservative respite in the mid-80's and fiscal conservatism now espoused by even British Labour.

One way, it seems, that currency and govt debt could flourish in the international financial community was for the gold standard to deminish as a reference point. Afterall, if gold were marketed as a world currency standard all other currencies and govt securities based thereon would continually devalue in relation to gold and the US currency slogan "In God we Trust" would to be supplemented with "...everyone else pays in gold".

This decline in the gold standard was accomplished in stages over the past 20 odd years. Canada, the only "proxy" country in the world ( that is, a US proxy ) , started the ball rolling by reducing its gold stocks in favour of US securities and the Japanese followed by replanting enormous $US cash inflows sourced from surplus exports back into US govt securities.

The Japs political choice was obvious and perhaps the single most strategic event that signified the end of the gold standard.

Clearly, the Japanese could have supported the gold standard but instead favoured US debt securities to keep the US govt happy while Jap trading blocks flooded the US markets with exports and US smoke stack industries disappeared along with blue collar union jobs--- BTW, does anyone hear about the AFL-CIO anymore ? Do you remember the good old days when the President curried favour with the Steelworkers and Autoworkers ?

So the Japs put their faith in the US govt generally and the US Treasury and FED in particular.

History indicates that the Japanese really harmed the gold standard and it will take the Japanese to resurrect it or, at minimum, the collective power of the EC to bring the world's currency back into "order" using a standard that can not be increased at the will of two Washington guys who direct the US Treasury and the US FED System from time to time.

One could certainly argue that the Washington Twins are merely the face of Wall Street or Main Street from time to time but the fact remains the same. The US Treasury and FED have replaced the gold standard.

One justification for allowing this new standard to continue - ironically - is that the US Treasury+FED own the largest gold horde in the world and the US currency is "somewhat" tied to the gold standard ...afterall.

The logic here is "why" should the lesser economic powers hold gold when the final arbitrar of global economic well-being holds sufficent gold to back its securities ( and the Japs don't seem to mind anyway... ) .

So this is how we get into this doo doo with gold price. The trend is the friend of the men with the Yen.

Now, if I could only get Peter Munk to blow-away these annoying gold spec
shorts I may be able to retire comfortably !


(Thu Jul 17 1997 11:44)

Guess what's the strongest currency in the world today? Hint: Heavy, yellow, lustrous and hated.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 11:46)
Hey Gunrunner. How long do you think the N Koreans would last if they brought in N Vietnam? How would California survive with all those S Korean refugees?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 11:47)
Typical pre Asian close bull run at the moment, gold up 2.70, wait for after 12:00 for the drop back to lameness.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 11:49)
@the scene
Gold making a move. Currently up 3.30.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 11:53)
Looks like some shorts are short eh, just a taste for soon.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:00)
@the market
Been up as much as 5.50 now. If it can hold above the 323 area, could be we'll soon see some even nicer numbers.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:02)
322.25 up 4.30
Eldorado: can you post your quote site please?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:05)
Buying was comming from Asia and London. USA will probally shoot at the bull. But you never know eh!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:08)

MemoryMan ( Saigon ) :

Interesting questions.

Question 1: There is only one Vietnam and it would depend on whose side they would join with.

Question 2: California's state productivity ( or some equivalent U.S.'s Gross National/Domestic Product ) would probably increase ten-fold within 6 months ( : ) )

IMO of course....

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:09)
@the scene
Scott -- I use a couple that are fee based. But under Barts web resources button, you'll find DGSE and they are pretty decent at times. Got to have backups!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:10)

September gold now quoted at $340, up $17.80

( This fantasy brought to you by Sealy Posturepedic )

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:10)
Seems to be holding a fair gain, this is good, today could be the deadline for some shorts.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:13)
Eldorado: that ok, I can usually get a feal from Yahoo XAU quotes to what is happening, I just need to wait 10min for gold update. : ) Hope we see 324 today, that might set the ball or bull rolling!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:13)
@the scene
Unless they quickly push it down, there is nothing to stop it 'till the 335+ area! Currently testing the Aug 323 area. Mostly from the top so far!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:18)
If my source is right, the Klonike Gold rush began exactly 100 years ago today, in 1897.
For WALL-STREETERS only: YES, Gold did exist 100 years ago......

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:20)

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:20)
Check out Kitco 24hour chart, NOW THATS WHAT I LIKE TO SEE!!!!!!!!!!!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:24)
@the scene
Until/unless the other metals react more positively, this may wind up being a dead cat bounce. Aug gold is currently holding the 323.3 area quite decently. Perhaps it'll turn it into some pseudo support. If it doesn't do to much more, we could see some even lower numbers in the next week or two than what we've seen to date.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:26)

To everyone who says I only post on days when gold is going down -
What do you call this?

( Now, if I could get y'all to agree to post only on days when gold is going up,
but that's another fantasy sponsored by Sealy Posturepedic )

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:27)
Eldorado: I'm with you, gold needs to break the shorts psychology, then the real gain will be seen. 324-325 aught to get thing going, I'm surprised 323 is holding... I'm impressed.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:32)
@ Verified
Nice NO?
Just verified several sources, and also checked loud mouth JOHN, and we seem to be going up. A pleasure, even if short lived, due us all.
My long term charts still show nothing but up.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:32)
Spot or Futures?
scott, eld. Try this for ten minute delayed:

fwiw...there were half a dozen people on the pulpet yesterday hugging and high fiving and swapping spit. What madness... ( I forget who posted this info but I have been watching to humor myself )

away...and still waiting for the trucks

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:35)
@the scene
Scott -- The 323 area is Aug golds recent high area. It's been resistance and now is it's chance to make it support.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:36)
Larry: Your comments on TREND*s posting are excellent.

Trend: I wonder whether you*re Edward Allen Toppel who wrote the excellent book " Zen in the Markets - Confessions of a Samurai Trader ". You sound so much like him ! As I*ve discussed briefly with him, picking tops and bottoms are risky business but there*re a few people around who have done it successfully. The ability of accurate forecasts, however, does not in itself necessary mean the forecaster nor the followers can have great profitable trades. The forecaster can for sure attract publicity to either sell newsletters, hot line services and or entice traders to attend his/her training courses !

No matter how accurate the forecasts are, what make a trader successful or not depends on the trader himself. Forecasts are extremely, if not impossible, to have 100% accuracy over a long period of time. The shorter the time frame used for each forecast, the less accurate the forecasts tend to be. And nothing is for sure until it happens. Price alone is the final judge of the market, no matter what you or I discuss it either in fundamental, technical or psychological ( sentiments ) terms. Each of us has our own beliefs, bias or " rational " analyses. But price alone will either justify or refute@them.It*s more worthwhile to improve one*s self-understanding than rush to attend courses, subscribe newsletters or hotlines run by those with proven track records in telling how you can trade profitably. Remember : It is much easier said than done. Self-control is a prime factor in successful trading, it*s much more important than accurate forecasts.

Though I believe that the current mania in the financial market will be tragic when it ends. Yet, this belief has to be proved or disproved by history in hindsight. Maybe a miracle happens just in time to stop the bubble bursts. Only time will tell .....

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:40)
EB: Thanks, thats a pretty good site, mmmn bookmark I think. thanks again! : )

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:44)
^DJI 12:41PM 8059.09 +20.21 +0.25%
^XAU 12:41PM 93.03 +2.14 +2.35%
XAU went to about +2.50 and down to +1.90 seems to be holding +2.00 to +2.20

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:45)
shipments must be delayed again...oh dear
The Other white metal!



donald-2653 words in 69 minutes? not that i'm counting...whew!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:47)
@the scene
I just love it when a trend line gets busted! Aug gold trend busted to the upside once it poked it's nose over the decending line at 320.5 in the intra-day chart. It was, shall we say, 'marvelous'! Irregardless what it does from here, it was Goooood!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:50)
@Eatin crow and lovin it!!
Ted: Me a CONTRARY indicator? Hey, its great to be useful for something!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:52)
@the scene
One thing I could expect would be a sharp quick drop to 322 in the Aug gold. Then a punch back up, through, and away to higher highs. Just to kick out some new weak longs. Keeps them biting their nails!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:56)
At about 2:30 - 3:00 we will get the trend for the day, either a kick up or profit take down. I don't know who just bought but I hope it was commercials. If it was the speculators selling short are screwed.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:57)
FAKE-OUT ALERT! The XAU is largely comprised of companies that hedge themselves by selling many years' production forward ( i.e.: ABX is 34% of XAU ) . The HUI contains only companies that do not hedge. The historical ratio of HUI to XAU is 1.48 so all things being equal, the HUI should move 1.48 times the move in the XAU to yield the same percentage move. I have noticed that when the HUI underperforms the XAU, gold has a downward bias, and conversely, when HUI outperforms the XAU, gold has a positive bias. So far each time the HUI underperformed the XAU on the positive side, it has been a fake out and gold sold off to make a new low. The most reliable sign of a trend change has been: gold down, XAU down, HUI up. Please comment.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:58)
White metals?
E.B......WHATCHA GOT on the other white metal shipments?? Something new?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 12:58)
Speculators covering their ass more like it, but if it is commericals then the price will hold.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:00)
Did the price just drop like a cat or what?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:01)
Kitcos' 24 hour chart just scared the .... out of me!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:01)
prove it
John/hepcat... I'm sure there are several others on Kitco who have been in cash for a long time waiting for the bottom, so don't feel like the Lone Ranger. When you find the bottom, let us know. IMO, this is a serious rally and most of my money is in, so naturally, nothing personal, I hope you are wrong.

I enjoy some of your comments, but can you tell us at what price of gold you sold, and did you make any money on the big slide by shorting? Did you put your money where your mouth/PC is, or is this just a bragging contest?

Where is Short Bull? I've been waiting for your next prediction, too.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:08)
Prices are increasing instead of decreasing as would happen if the "trucks" didn't show. NO? I seem to recall that shipments were to resume to Japan today. ( which would have been last night, from my location ) . If anyone has info feel free to post...Panda?


russia supplies 20% of the world platinum and 60% of the world palladium...

George Cole
(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:09)
gold and gold stocks
Gold stocks not up that much considering today's big jump in bullion. Investors obviously doubt gold can hold its gains. But if the yellow surpises by going up AND STAYING UP, look for quick 5-10% jumps in many of the gold mutual funds.

Bob; Isn't one of the unstated purposes of the Euro to break free from U.S. financial domination?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:10)
This explains the $5 jump.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:13)
George Cole? aka George S. Cole?
what happened to the S? Is this the new and imroved GSC? The leaner, meaner?


(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:13)
RJ: GC up $4.60! You dirty dog. All this time, you were planning to go long GC and wouldn't give us a chance to set our positions. ..... ( :- ) )

(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:16)
Russian "Trucks"...problems
This is from the posted by scott...

Russian shipments of palladium to Japan resumed this week after a six month suspension, but
problems appear to be developing with shipments of platinum, which have not arrived yet, traders

WHAT'S GOING ON, I Wonder with those "Trucks???"

(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:18)
gold selling
BOB.. You make much sense with your comments about smaller central banks selling their gold and buying US debt. They are betting on the US maintaining a high value currency. I suspect the fact that we have the largest hoard of gold is important. If the US were to sell some, there would be a short term drop in the gold price followed by many investors bailing out of the dollar, and a subsequent long term move up in metals as the dollar hit the slippery slope.

Since Rubin probable knows this, the US won't be selling.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:23)
THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Feds 262 million oz. Gold at $325)
Why has the U.S. - fountainhead of antigold sentiment - NOT SOLD any of its gold while encouraging its allies to sell?? - Coles Market Insights poignant question:

(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:23)
Just think, if one guy can make the price jump like it did earlier, can't wait for the rest of them to get into the action. Once they think gold is as low as its going, they will be fighting to cover themselves at the lowest price to reduce their losses. A few more bucks and all hell will break loose.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:25)
problems with PL deliveries?
Who woulda thunk it...

Strap in!


Richard Burke
(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:41)
On Gulf of Georgia
Following up Korondy's earlier post - HUI up 1.98%; XAU up 1.93%. Therefore, move up positive so far. I went long on TVX and ECO this morning. Waiting now for another positive move and will also go into PGD and TMO ( all TSE ) . All of these stocks have good leverage against the XAU.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:44)
SSSSHHHH....we want to have creep up 3-4 bucks a day so the media wont announce it too loudly, otherwise we'll ruin "THEIR" plan

(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:45)
Isn't 1:45 PM East Coast time right about when the Big Shorts have been busting in every day? Are they out of ammo or did they oversleep?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:46)
creep up in GOLD that is, sorry.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:50)
Gold starts to come up a little and CBs gate crash.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:52)
Ted, good to see you back, I missed your attitude. BTW, my paper, the Kansas City Star had on the front page, "DOW hits 8000". Not only does Peter Monk believe that Gold will go up when the EU gets settled but, Martin Armstrong of PEI says, "The present bear market could last into early next year. The danger of Central Bank sales will then disappear - as the participants in the Euro will then be defined." Heck, I've been waiting since the spring of 1993, I can wait another 6 months. Hey Tort, had a family reunion last weekend and discovered that I have a lawyer in the family who likes gold stocks. Your not alone.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:54)
We are on the move again folks, watch them gold stuff

Richard Burke
(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:54)
Egg-on- face
Sorry, I first caught absolute numbers for XAU and HUI - actually XAU up 2.37% and HUI 1.54% - According to Korondy this may be a fake out unless HUI closes higher tha XAU.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:56)
@the scene
Definitely looking more real now! So far, up 6.30 and climbing!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 13:57)

(Thu Jul 17 1997 14:05)
@in Hiding
COMRADE KUSTOMERS: Truk OK, stil in Albania. Driver lok for deposit kans and botls enough by gas for truk. Vil be soon vith deliver. Not to vorry.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 14:07)
@the market
So far, it hasn't been a particularly good day to be long either silver or platinum and short the gold. Maybe they'll catch up.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 14:09)
Eldorado: what has it maxed out at?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 14:15)
@...Euro doomed by history... still too early yet
GSC: You know that good intentions that make good sense often do not workout. The French, Germans, British, and Italians have been on opposite sides in two world wars this century. Hell, the Italians were all other the place the last war ;- )

The problem with the Euro is that it really will become the Euro-DM and the other nationalists that form the Great EC will not go along for the ride without clear benefits. The Brits are having a difficult time with giving up Sterling. The French voted socialist. The Italians still hone their skillfull organized chaos economy ( oxymoronic economy ? ) .

Europe is doomed to history - Bosnia is an extreme example.

I suggest that the old European "Allies" will stick together and hide under the financial skirt of the US Treasury and FED. The alternative would be to hedge with the Japanese YEN - but the Japs are feared for modern day 'Pearl Harbour' export attacks. Better the devil you know than the one you think you know...

But, you never know, a visionary may 'once again' rise in Europe that sweeps all old sentiments aside and raises the spectre of US world domination as the new marching call. We hope that this time it won't be
a call to arms.


(Thu Jul 17 1997 14:18)
@the scene
Scott -- At least so far, 325 August.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 14:24)
@the scene
Overnight markets should be a blast as they play catch up! HAR! Maybe there will be a whole lot of shorts there that NEED to cover! Either that or they'll just plain dump on it!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 14:24)
@ The Public Library
Everybody is waiting for the close of Comex in New York. In about 6 minutes.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 14:27)
KGB...Mobil Credit...Call me...
I'll send you my credit card # for some gas. Fill ALL the trucks ( or none ) . This is no time to make Party. Get off the wodka and get yer ass to Japan! I want to see what you got...I want the world to see what you got.


(Thu Jul 17 1997 14:27)
Eldorado: I am in Brisbane Australia, because it is 4:30am in the morning I will probally not know whats happened until lunchtime when I get out bed!!!!!! I've got to see my stocks tomorrow, it will be good!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 14:31)
Now is the time for all good men...
If anybody has the "real time" gold closing for Aug Gold in New York woulc be appreciated. : )

(Thu Jul 17 1997 14:34)
D.A you is DA MAN!!, nice call thnx again

(Thu Jul 17 1997 14:38)
@...US Govt Gold
Larryn: If the US govt sold its gold the market could not absorb it anywhere near current prices. If we assume that the US govt got $99 per oz. for its 262 Mill Tonnes, or about $26 Billion US, it would depend what the govt did with the proceeds. Let us assume it receives US dollars.

If the US govt burned the US$ proceeds gold would take a decade to recover after supply was redistributed in the market and the gold mining industry consolidated under a few Big Boys.

If the US govt, following my "assumptions", were to buy-back its debt from the market there would be a redistribution of $US dollars in the market and a very very small portion of US total debt would be cancelled.

The US$ would fall and gold would rise until equalibrium values you suggest.

The chances are that the US would shore-up its international currency with gold backing if an attempt is made by foreign powers to chase the dollar from its Eagles nest - remember, the US Treasury is on record to defend a strong US dollar as national policy.


(Thu Jul 17 1997 14:41)
gold up!
silver up!
beans down!

in other words----yeeeeeeeehhaaaaaaaaaaaa----

sorry. the exuberance made me irrational.

gsc--regardless of irregardless, it has no home in the dictionary!; ) )


how about purchasing a few lap-tops ( 200mhz or faster ) to use
as loaners when the bastions of this site vacation. two weeks
with-out a ted, makes me want to turn red. ( der ) be sure to
include a blazing fast modem with satellite up-link capability!

where's that guru da? got a silver feather with golden
irredesence emanating from an internal power source waiting.

for da--"if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have
i have stood on the shoulders of giants!"
isaac newton

da-you have a permanent space on the smoke-signal mobile my friend.
the other giants await your arrival. smoke the pipe of knowledge,
the smoke will signal others awaiting their turn.

cherokee!; ) rider-of-the-phoenix ( brad ) , driver-of-the-ssm for the good
of all non-sleepwalkers. imm

(Thu Jul 17 1997 14:42)
gold up!
silver up!
beans down!

in other words----yeeeeeeeehhaaaaaaaaaaaa----

sorry. the exuberance made me irrational.

gsc--regardless of irregardless, it has no home in the dictionary!; ) )


how about purchasing a few lap-tops ( 200mhz or faster ) to use
as loaners when the bastions of this site vacation. two weeks
with-out a ted, makes me want to turn red. ( der ) be sure to
include a blazing fast modem with satellite up-link capability!

where's that guru da? got a silver feather with golden
irredesence emanating from an internal power source waiting.

for da--"if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have
i have stood on the shoulders of giants!"
isaac newton

da-you have a permanent space on the smoke-signal mobile my friend.
the other giants await your arrival. smoke the pipe of knowledge,
the smoke will signal others awaiting their turn.

cherokee!; ) rider-of-the-phoenix ( brad ) , driver-of-the-ssm for the good
of all non-sleepwalkers. imm

(Thu Jul 17 1997 14:47)
Offical August close is $324.00 ............. Good night all!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 14:52)
@...Asian exchanges derivative regulations and short covering
Does anyone know if the Asian gold derivative markets are a mirror or jittneyed through the US and London exchnages or do they have their own comfortable rules ?

We may have a small squeeze play in US but the fun is gone if the Asians can kite big short positions and, indeed, add to it in the overnight market due to convenient trading rules.

If the Asian gold derivative markets are independent of US and London - timing/momentum delay is more important here as all markets are eventually abitraged - and adequately capitalized it will be difficult to chase the shorts out of this market - assuming a good portion of the shorts operate from Asian bases.

The margin rules should be international in scope and breadth but remember what happended to Barings Bank from a rogue Brit trader esconed in Singapore ? Also, remember the overnight rally kills from Asian gold markets in Jan/Feb last ?

It would be appreciated if someone from the East or anyone who knows the Asian gold derivative game to advise us on the dynamics, players and capitalization of that gold market.

JIN...any ideas ?


(Thu Jul 17 1997 14:53)
@the market
After dropping back to about +5.40 after being at +6.30, gold has been moving back up into and after the closing. Currently at +6.0. That equates to 324.7 Aug. Silver looks like it may be next come tomorrow! Watch for a break above 4.30-4.32 Sept. It made it to 4.29 today. Platinum not fairing as well. Currently up 1.50. It may not want to play.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 14:57)
TED .....WELCOME BACK !!!!!!!!!!!!!!And you even run gold up today !!!!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 15:00)
tanami were correct on lease rates.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 15:01)
tanami were correct on lease rates.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 15:07)


What a glorious time to be alive, in the time of threetwofive.

You've got your chance once again to listen to me, Goldbuggers.
This time, maybe you should.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 15:10)
To avoid misunderstanding: If HUI change is less than 1.48 * XAU change then BEARISH. If HUI Chng greater than XAU Chng then BULLISH. Else NEUTRAL. Example: at 15:07 EDT, XAU is up 2.63 which corresponds to a net change of 3.89 in the HUI ( 2.63 * 1.48 = 3.89 ) This would be NEUTRAL. HUI change of 3.9 or better would be BULLISH. Since the HUI is only up 2.48, this is BEARISH. Please note: I have been wrong before. Especially during the past two years. Happy trails.

Bob M
(Thu Jul 17 1997 15:17)
What are the mining stocks doing today?

George S. Cole
(Thu Jul 17 1997 15:20)
Looks like the well financed counterattack against the very exposed shorts has begun even sooner than I anticipated; Let the massacre proceed and escalate.

KORODNY: A better indicator than HUI/XAU is the Johannesberg gold index versus the Toronto Gold Index, The higher cost more leveraged South Africans always outperform in gold bulls and underperform during gold bears. When the South Africans start to consistently outperform, we will know the gold bear is history and a new bull market has begun.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 15:20)
With compliments to D.A. for the expression: "Money" had a good day today. Here is the 5 min chart of todays action. Ignore the long bar between early in the session. I was here reading gossip at the time so that period is longer than 5 min.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 15:24)
@ Watch The Close
Well, will the XAU and HUI do one of their famous ( infamous ) run ups at the close????

(Thu Jul 17 1997 15:26)
EARL: Your chart displays a class-book Flag break-out at the end of the day. Therefore, there are good odds gold will reach at least 328 soon.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 15:31)


On behalf of the professional investors who populate this group please "Put a sock in it" ... You're getting very boring and becoming useless to the group discussions. Make your point, stop bragging and become part of the information flow rather than a hindrance.

Thanks in advance


(Thu Jul 17 1997 15:32)
George S. Cole: Where can I get real-time quotes for BOTH the Jo-berg and the TO gold index? I get real-time quotes on indeces for free from DBC,, PCQuote, etc. So, I watch XAU, HUI, and GOX like a hawk to avoid flying margin calls ( I own several HUI stocks. ) Thanks & keep up the good posts both here and on GoldEagle, too.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 15:43)
Krondy & all ...
Krondy, try and look for the ^THET quote for the TSE Gold index in real time.

All: Just to go out on a limb, IMVHO, this looks more like a dead cat bounce than up. The Freeport McMoran FCX is still down and the Gettchell Gold ( GGO ) is only up 1.23% . That's not enough movement for a $6 Gold and a 7 cent silver move. Gold/silver are leading the bigger stocks today. Maybe the enthusiasm is right but I have my doubts. Hope I'm wrong in my heart though.


(Thu Jul 17 1997 15:49)
BTW, You can also get it from via $GL-TC ...


Bill Buckler
(Thu Jul 17 1997 15:58)
An interesting situation. Both $A and $US Gold P$F charts ( based on closing prices ) now show double bottoms. The $A chart at $A 427 - the $US chart at $US 318. The charts are up at

Remember that G-7 meeting in Denver about five weeks ago? The communique issued was notable for a lack of any mention of "currency stability", in sharp contrast to most previous G-7 meetings. Well, of course, we have certainly seen some currency *instability* since then. Thailand, The Phillippines, Malaysia, Brazil etc.

Also, in regard to Hashimoto's long forgotten ( on Wall St anyway ) Treasury selling threat. Since Mr Hashimoto made the threat, the Dollar is up against the Yen, and Treasury long-bond yields have fallen to their lowest levels since late last year. Gold in $US terms is down as well. In short, Japan's "investment" in U.S. debt paper has appreciated ( quite strongly ) since Mr Hashimoto's "misinterpreted" remarks. When that appreciation stops, that is the time to watch to see what Japan does.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 16:05)
Korondy: For quotes of Johannesburg Stock Exchange ( JSE ) Gold index and more try and for comprehensive share listings Sharenet in general offers interesting and more importantly free info on SA market.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 16:07)
Korondy, Front: I am in your corner. The XAU looks uninspired at best. Bullion may merely be playing catch-up at this time, but if this is other than a brief short-covering rally, the XAU better get off its duff fast or it would appear significant lower prices are being reported ahead.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 16:08)

Korondy: Correction!!! First site given is sharenet, not sharent.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 16:11)
Borrowed from


No, it's alive. As we suggested last week, the profound gloom that pervades the market is a strongly bullish sign. Right now it's hard to find anyone who believes that the yellow metal has much of a future. The market seems convinced that every central bank in the world is poised to unload gold at the next uptick. But there are a few optimists. Leanne Baker, gold analyst at Salomon Brothers, has upgraded -- that's right, upgraded -- Barrick ( NYSE:ABX ) , Getchell ( AMEX:GGO ) , and Placer Dome ( NYSE:PDG ) from Hold to Buy right after the washout. ``We believe that the price weakness is overdone,'' says Baker. ``Commodity demand is at all-time-record highs and mine production already is suffering from current weakness.'' Still, Baker lowered Salomon's 1997 price target from $375 to $350 an ounce.

Yesterday, Standard & Poor's downgraded its outlook on eight gold mining companies from Stable or Positive to Negative. Still, S&P expects that
longer term fundamentals should support a strengthening of prices to around the $350-an-ounce area.

Frank Veneroso, editor of Gold Watch and the Precious Metals Service, blames the sickening plunge in gold almost entirely on massive short selling by hedge funds and other well-financed speculators. ``This price break was a deliberate maneuver by predatory funds,'' says Veneroso, ``to establish a new 12-year low in the gold price.'' He not only discounts the negative effect of Australia's central bank sale, he charges that professional bears are using it to frighten the market. Mr. Veneroso believes that when the intense and continued short sale pressure lets up the price of gold will catapult sharply higher. When will this happen? No way of knowing, except that a rise above $326 an ounce might be the trigger.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 16:16)
@ Poor Bear:
With the XAU breaking the 93.99 recent high of a few days ago, I wonder if someone has just spiked this Golden Bear with a Bre-X Salted Spike? Would now like to see HUI break the 141+ number to confirm.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 16:24)
Front - The more astute among us will recognize the embedded message
from Thu Jul 03 1997 at 21:41, rather crude but I hope you enjoyed it:

...Yes, all fame is fleeting, fron't wilter non, Met Wo, c'est la vie...

Front will turn on me too. Now that didn't take long, did it?
I had you pegged a long time ago, Front. Lacking in self-confidence,
you faked your own demise from the site and then posted glowing
praise for yourself and pleas to come back under different handles.
Your resolve to leave Kitco lasted all of one day, Mr. Professional

Front and everyone else, let's put our professional skills to the test.
On July 29, spot gold will close at 325. Everyone else, feel free to
post your predictions for July 29 by midnight tonight. For those that
are $5 off or more, no posting for one month. Put up or shup up.

Good trading!


(Thu Jul 17 1997 16:25)
Nailz ( 14:57 ) and LSteve ( 13:52 ) :Thanks fer welcome back!!..HI JIN!!! Thanks for the LONG e-mail!!!...Tort: Just got in the door and will work on somethin fer ya tonight...XAU up 3.28....Novice:Will be workin on somethin fer ya too....Time to hit the deck....

(Thu Jul 17 1997 16:26)
Tomorrow's News, more banking problems in Korea.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 16:35)

Thanks for the encouragment. After sleeping on it overnight I decided to stay in the game. Looks like I may have made the right move. Time will tell.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 16:41)

Pretty good turn around, can't be a dead cat bounce as gold doesn't die._______ Maybe just a good bounce in a lousy gold market? Hope it"s real; if so, it shows Aussie Central Bank as incompetent bunch MBA computer jockey's. Throw the bum's out.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 16:48)
Why is everyone focusing on the technical side? I agree that it is a big factor but you can't ignore the impact that the banking problems in Korea, Thailand, Japan and the Philippines had on the rally. When the shorts are all covered only that kind of news will keep it going.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 17:11)
Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 15:43
FRONT....Regarding your Post Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 15:43
All: Just to go out on a limb, IMVHO, this looks more like a dead cat bounce than up......

Do you have the Gold SubIndustry URL?

Best Regards Schippi

(Thu Jul 17 1997 17:25)
SCHIPPI: Will the dead cat bounce higher or should we take any profits tomorrow?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 17:51)
Trendies Beware
Aid worker: N. Korea Hunger

By Joe Mcdonald
Associated Press Writer
Wednesday, July 16, 1997; 10:11 a.m. EDT

BEIJING ( AP ) -- The number of North Korean children dying
from acute food shortages is growing and the malnutrition rate
has more than doubled over the past three months, an aid
worker said today.

North Korean officials say the rate of malnutrition among
children under age 6 has climbed from 16 percent in April to
37 percent today, said Kathi Zellweger of the Roman Catholic
charity Caritas.

Zellweger, who returned Tuesday from North Korea, said
800,000 children are considered malnourished and 80,000
suffer severe malnutrition.

The communist country has been hurt by two years of flooding
and poor harvests, and is thought to be on the brink of
widespread famine if it does not receive massive foreign aid.

North Korea, which said earlier that 134 children died of
malnutrition last year, has not released figures on recent deaths.

Zellweger said officials reported hunger was claiming more

``Everywhere we went, they confirmed an increase,'' she said.
She visited towns on the east and west coasts of North Korea,
as well as the capital, Pyongyang.

Zellweger showed photographs taken last week of North
Korean children with sticklike limbs, saying they lacked the
energy even to stand. A colleague told her that he hadn't seen
children in such poor condition since the Ethiopian famine in the
mid-1980s, she said.

The United States, China, South Korea and other countries
have donated several hundred thousand tons of wheat, rice and
other food. But the amount falls far short of the 800,000 tons
that U.N. agencies believe North Korea needs before its
October harvest.

That harvest is expected to be very poor, Zellweger said.

Complicating North Korea's attempt to get help is its military
standoff with South Korea and the United States.

The South Korean military said its border guards exchanged
fire today with North Korean troops at their heavily fortified
border. No South Korean casualties were reported, but North
Korea said several of its soldiers were wounded.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 17:56)
Two posts an hour, wow, after a nice runup like today. Is everyone looking for that book on how to skin a cat? Or is the fact that we get a six dollar run up and most just talk of dead cats, never saw that before, does that mean the bottom is in? It would if it was just us, but what about the big players?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 18:07)
here & there
This little bounce today must be a minor counter trend rally on the path to DOW 15000 and Gold $75 Just ask the experts on CNBC and CNNfn

(Thu Jul 17 1997 18:15)
An interesting article at regarding todays action in real "money" ( thanks again D.A. ) . Worth the visit.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 18:17)
@...good solid information
Check this story on the big short and possible Soros involvement. It also indicates the size and reletive significance of the current gold short position. excellent reading and highly recommended:


(Thu Jul 17 1997 18:17)

Very few gold related news stories in the face of todays jump????
If gold fell; numerous bearish news views would be presented.
Why? All answers are appreciated.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 18:25)
Germans prefer devaluation: Hard pounding


This is a time when traditionally strong currencies are weak and
traditionally weak ones strong. But the managers of the US dollar, the
Japanese yen and the D-Mark are happy with this turn of the great wheel
of currency fortune. So long as their complacency lasts, those caught in the
turmoil can do little more than grin and bear it. This is true for the emerging
economies of eastern Europe and east Asia. It is just as true for the British.

The pound has appreciated by 38 per cent against the D-Mark from its
low in May 1995 and by 32 per cent since last August alone. It is now well
above its old DM 2.95 central rate in the exchange rate mechanism of the
European Monetary System. British travellers abroad may love the
appreciation, but exporters loath it.

Unfortunately for the British, Germans have become devaluation-lovers at
last. Only yesterday, a government spokesman declared that "the rise of
the dollar and sterling against the mark is improving Germany's competitive
position and will boost growth and jobs without creating inflationary
dangers". So competitive devaluations are wonderful, after all.

Vantage point

From the UK's relatively narrow vantage point, the most important external
development is indeed the weakness of the D-Mark. Against the US
dollar, for example, the D-Mark has depreciated by 24 per cent since its
high point in April 1995 and by 18 per cent since last August alone. Yet
the weakness of the D-Mark is not the best way to describe what has
been happening. The striking feature is the strength of the US dollar against
both the other two significant currencies. The yen, in particular,
depreciated 37 per cent from April 1995 to April of this year, before

Thus the strength of sterling can be broken down into its appreciation
against the dollar and its appreciation with the dollar against third
currencies. Since last August, sterling has only appreciated by 8 per cent
against the dollar, from 1.54 to 1.67. Over the same period, however, it
has appreciated by 32 per cent against the D-Mark.

Two questions arise: why are the European currencies so weak and why
has sterling risen even more against them than the dollar, even though it is
more vulnerable to European competition than the US?

To the first, there are two answers: the need of Europe's weak economies
for a devaluation and the willingness of the authorities to embrace it; and
the consequent desire of investors to flee European currencies.

To the second, there are also two answers: the habitual tendency for
sterling to rise with the dollar when the dollar rises against the D-Mark;
and the similar cyclical positions of the US and the UK, but with the UK
apparently rather closer to overheating than the US.

Depressing conclusion

These rational explanations all have force. But they are not entirely
persuasive. In particular, the increases in short-term interest rate
differentials between the dollar or pound and the D-Mark or yen have
been far too small to explain more than a small fraction of the appreciation
of either the US dollar or the pound. There must have been a fundamental
re-rating of these currencies, together with a speculative "bubble".

Unfortunately, this is just another way of saying that the reasons for such
big exchange-rate shifts are far from understood. That is also not the only
depressing conclusion. It is also clear that inflation convergence is not going
to be enough to produce exchange-rate stability.

Still more depressingly, the fact that these huge swings are in part bubbles
does not mean the British authorities can prick them - at least on their own.
The Germans, the Japanese and the Americans appear content with what
is happening. So long as the first two want weak currencies and the
Americans are willing to tolerate a strong one, the British must live with
their painful sterling dilemma.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 18:36)
TWO DAYS OLD BUT NEWS TO ME:Malaysia: Bank fails to stem assault on

Originally published: TUESDAY JULY 15 1997

By James Kynge in Kuala Lumpur

Malaysia's ringgit yesterday became the latest south-east Asian currency to
buckle under speculative attack after the country's central bank abandoned
support for the currency at a level it has defended for the past two months.

The ringgit fell 1.8 per cent to a 16-month low of M$2.5500 against the
US dollar after the central bank offered only token resistance to waves of
selling in early trade, dealers said. The currency slipped below M$2.5250,
the level the bank had defended since a speculative attack on the Thai baht
in mid-May.

The assault on Asian currencies that has seen the Thai baht and Philippine
peso devalued in the past two weeks continued yesterday as governments
struggled to maintain currency values against the dollar in spite of weak
exports growth and faltering demand at home.

The Thai central bank intervened to support the baht, saying it had fallen
too far at Bt30 - its lowest level since its devaluation. It firmed to close at
Bt29.90. The Philippine peso touched a four-year low but recovered
before closing at 29 to the dollar. The Indonesian rupiah slid to 2,470 to
the dollar early yesterday before recovering to close at 2,450.

Last week, Indonesia's central bank widened the rupiah's trading band to
12 per cent from 8 per cent, saving it billions in its fight to uphold the
currency. In Malaysia, treasury economists said it was unlikely that the
central bank had abandoned the concept of a trading band for the ringgit.
This belief was reinforced by the fact that the central bank, Bank Negara,
had intervened to put a floor under the ringgit's slide at M$2.5500.

It rebounded slightly to about M$2.53 in late trading. Mr Anwar Ibrahim,
Malaysia's acting prime minister and finance minister, said that, following
the ringgit's depreciation, the currency was in a "reasonable range". He
reiterated the government's opposition to speculators and said that
currency trade should reflect what he described as Malaysia's strong
economic fundamentals.

Economists say the Malaysian central bank had abandoned its support of
the currency at a level of M$2.5250 after spending up to US$2bn
defending the currency, with little sign of deterring speculators.

Most currency observers say the weakening of other regional currencies
over recent weeks has enhanced their export competitiveness at Malaysia's
expense, leaving Kuala Lumpur little choice but to allow the ringgit to

(Thu Jul 17 1997 18:47) is the time for Big Gold to rally on behalf of long investors
Now that we have a fix on who ( John W. Henry fund ) and how much ( $1.2 B ) the New York big short has it is time for Peter Munk and his colleagues at Big Gold to blow this minor league player out of the water.

The Reuter story ( Earl, I missed your original post ) on the Comex short position and action in the pits also hinted that the RSA "Financial Mail" speculates that George Soros ( $15 B fund ) has been shorting gold.

Soros may have a great record as financial alchemist but the CBs - particularly the Brits - are still smarting over his orchestrated currency crisis that netted him one of investment history's greatest return for a Billion dollar bet.

The Reuter article suggested that although the COMEX position limit is 750,000 ozs. au ( 7.5k contracts ) hedge funds have added short positions in the OTC market and the total aggregate hedge fund short position
"may be as high as 2,000 tonnes, or roughly equivalent to all outstanding producer hedges, and an amount greater than the sum of all published net central bank sales in the last ten years, one analyst said."

It is estimated total short position of 2,000 tonnes ( 65 mil. ozs. ) is twice the size of the average daily turnover of the London Bullion Market Association, according to the article.

If you think about the math and the volocity of money you come to the conclusion that either the goldbugs and longs have totally misjudged the oversold condition in gold price or we are soon about to see one of the greatest short squeezes in investment history.

Now is the time for the Big Boys to step up to the plate and gives us a display of financial force to blow the weak shorts who will collapse the house of cards built by the spec gold shorts.


Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Thu Jul 17 1997 18:49)
To Uris: The difference in price between Krugerrands and Eagles is because of the ( lack of ) demand. Both coins are 22K and both contain an ounce of pure gold. The Eagles are carrying a higher premium right now simply because they're more desirable.

To Steve from Downunder: This discussion group is a public forum. It attracts people literally from all over the world. "Political correctness" may not belong everywhere, but I think the concepts are beneficial to this site where one is publicly addressing large populations of mixed nationalities.

In order of numbers of hits generated from each country here is a list of 95% of who's visiting Kitco:

(Thu Jul 17 1997 18:56)
Gold Bugitis
Now that youve bought a little gold, youre starting to sound like one of us gold bugs. Shame, shame ;- )
You recently mentioned your brother. Havent seen him in print for awhile. In what direction is his investment compass currently pointed?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 19:08)
BOB: It appears that the "BIG BOYS" are at bat - and THAT is the problem.

Strad Master
(Thu Jul 17 1997 19:20)
jOHN: ( Hepcat john - there are two Johns who post here so please forgive me if I must distinguish you by your lack of a capital letter and your e-mail address. )
Point 1. I dislike getting into these silly squabbles that erupt here as I find it all so meaningless. We are all anonymous here and even if someone uses his/her true and correct name we know virtually NOTHING about them, so it seems that if someone posts under one or one hundred different names, all that matters is that the information is interesting or useful. It is also easy and quite possible to ignore postings that you disagree with. I do it all the time.
Point 2. You are obviously a very intelligent fellow. I was delighted to see you start to post clear and insightful posts once you got the three two five stuff out of your system. Now that gold starts to gyrate a bit it seems your old combativeness is starting to leak out again. As has been pointed out by others here already, if you want the respect of the group, a civil tone ( which I know you can easily muster ) is all that is necessary to insure that respect. RJ - who posted very contrary thoughts right from the beginning was immediately accepted because of his obviously well-intentioned, insightful, and ultimately correct postings.
Point 3. For you to attack Front for multiple postings under different names is unnecessary, silly, and just plain wrong!! I happen to be in daily e-mail touch with Front and nearly as often with Vronsky. The first I heard of Front leaving the site in disgust was through an e-mail he wrote me. Over the ensuing days I was able to write to each of them and offer explanations as to the obvious misunderstanding that had taken place between them. If you will recall from Front's return to posting he specifically addressed Vronsky and thanked him for the forwarded e-mail. I was the one who forwarded that e-mail to him. Both Mr. Front and Mr. Vronsky are men of great maturity and gentility who don't have either the time or the inclination to indulge in childish games of posting messages to themselves. ( That's best left to the likes of Michael Lerner of Tikkun Magazine! ) Do you have the time and desire to write to yourself just so you can read congratulatory notes to yourself in print? If so, I truly have compassion for your lonely soul.
Point 4. Feel free to attack me as well if it will make you feel better. I understand just how meaningless it is. Above is my real e-mail address so you don't feel I"m attempting to hide. Thank you for your time.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 19:23)
Asian countries seek "Yen Bloc" to replace dollar. ( If anyone sees a trend developing in these posts please let me know )

(Thu Jul 17 1997 19:42)
Brazilian President vows to defend the currency.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 19:52)
Maybe this is why the Hi Tech's are flying so high...from the url posted below by Donald

NEW YORK, 07/17/97 - In the future world trade will be channeled through the Internet, said
Craig Barrett, president of Intel, the largest chip manufacturer in the world. In an exclusive interview
with Gazeta Mercantil, Barrett affirmed that MMX technology which expands audiovisual capacity
of microprocessors produced by Intel in Santa Clara California, will be an important tool in future
commercial operations. He projected that by the end of the decade 200 million people will be
navigating on the Internet. ( SB )

(Thu Jul 17 1997 19:58)
From Beijing to Brazil to Bulgaria, many banks are shaky - even in fast-growing Asian economies. These may be the pins which prick Wall Streets Bubble. STEVE PUETZ LETTER:

(Thu Jul 17 1997 20:09)

Strad Master - I tend to agree with all of your points. For the last two months
( maybe longer ) I have posted under one handle, that which you see above. I for one think it is a tremendous waste of time to have to wade through multiple posts
by the same person under different handles, especially when it is painfully
obvious who is actually doing the posting. However, the fact that this is
frustrating is exactly why people are doing it. Indeed, it is exactly why I was
doing it before I started posting under one handle.
I operate with one guiding principle on this site: No one attacks me with impunity,
or you get what you give. I may not mount a very effective defense, but I sure as heck am going to mount one. I also believe that actions have consequences.
If someone says that gold is going to $365, then they better not run and hide
( or hide under a different handle ) if it doesn't. If someone says Flag is going
to 65 cents, guaranteed, and it doesn't, then they should be mature enough
to admit their mistakes. Before someone says they are leaving the site,
then they ought to stop and think if this is what they really intend to say. C'mon,
it's not like this is something blurted out in the heat of the moment - you have
to sit down and type a farewell address out.
I have nothing against Front. He, at times, is just as flippant as I am. But we've
got all these prima donnas on this site who are so fragile they can't be
challenged, or they pack their bags. I was somewhat happy when Front went
off on Vronsky, in part because I had fomented the rebellion from Vronsky's
wallpaper assault, which everyone kind of nibbles at the edges of but never
really comes out and says. At the same time, I was saddened, because I knew it
would end up in a hasty reconciliation, with Front turning on me. The whole
thing was manufactured even if Front didn't intend it to be ( or maybe he intended
it to be - As we always hear on this site, "What evidence do you have to the
contrary?" )

George Cole
(Thu Jul 17 1997 20:11)
in Florida
Bob; Thanks for the rumors re: Soros and the CBs very negative attitude towards him!

Dead cat bounce or beginning of major bull run? Neither perhaps.. Would very much like to seel the yellow base for awhile before starting a major move up. That way I would have more confidence in its longevity.

Today's gold stock action was disappointing, but the action probably will get much better if the yellow remains firm this Friday the 18th ( a very unusual occurance over the past 18 months )

Remember the old investment slogan, "bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered." Well the pigs have beat out everybody these past few years. Oh those lucky porkers!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 20:14)
ok...johnH...I say 325 also...July 29...have you called your broker to sell calls and collect premiums?
This is not to say that I agree w/ your social skills. Be nice. What is your call on Platinum by July 29...oh sagacious one.

Friday's have been hellious for GOLD. It will Drop like that dead animal to which everyone is referring.



Be secret and exult
Because of all things known
That is the most difficult

William Butler Yeats

(Thu Jul 17 1997 20:19)
So far tonight no one has taken me up on the prediction for July 29 spot gold close.
I take that to mean you all feel you have more to lose than to gain, i.e. you don't
have a crystal ball, so why risk losing posting privileges for a month. Given
that, why do you attack me with such vigor when I profess to know absolutely
nothing ( nor care ) ? Put up or shut up. It's only your reputations to lose, and
your continued waffle diet. As I said to George S. Cole, at least I put a number
out there to be judged on.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 20:19)
@ Gold Alert:
Reading reports while surfing that gold is jumping up and down, down $6 back to unchanged and now down $4. Does anyone have confirming info.?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 20:23)

Correction, EB has.
EB, I know how much you like platinum, and I am actually holding some from
about two years ago, but if you would offer me $400 for it right now, I would
gladly accept, cause it ain't going to be nowhere near that on July 29.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 20:25)
@Public Library
Source of info on gold jumping up and down is pretty reliable.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 20:30)
EBN shows gold up .10

(Thu Jul 17 1997 20:32)

You bought 'em, you da man, the rest don't mean *&^*.
Score 1 for the bugs.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 20:34)
JIN: Was just a LUCKY GUESS!...Tort: You have a missile abouit to hit...

(Thu Jul 17 1997 20:38)
"The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy"
Dr. Geoffrey P. Miller, Professor of Law & Director, Center for Study of Central Banks, New York University Law School - presents erudite & comprehensive study ( Part - I ) . SEE Editorials:

(Thu Jul 17 1997 20:50)
John @hepcat: You wrote: " Given that, why do you attack me with such vigor when I profess to know absolutely nothing ( nor care ) ?"

We all realize that you neither know or care. ON the other hand, we do. Your confessed ignorance and lack of interest in topics germane to this site have been painfully obvious from the beginning. Given that, your only motivation for remaining here as an active interjector can only be for purposes of disruption. In that you succeed wonderfully.

If you are still mystified as to why you would be treated cavalierly, perhaps you might ponder your motives. They are obvious to any reader of your posts. No doubt you would agree that a gentleman would not forcibly intrude, as an active participant, on conversations concerning matters which are of no interest to him professionally or personally.

I hope this adequately answers a question that should have been obvious to the most casual obsever.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 20:50)

Last I talked with my bro ( yesterday afternoon BBQ ) he was still on the stuff path. He's racking up the frequent flyer miles heading all over the western hemisphere looking at stuff businesses and properties to buy. I know he ( himself and some group of investors ) have some bids in on citrus land in Florida, there's something about airports in rural Mexico, timber in Costa Rica and I believe also in Guatamala. I don't know all the particulars but if you're tied in to large funds and you're interested I could hook you up with him. I can't guarantee returns but it sure will be interesting.

Steve - Perth
(Thu Jul 17 1997 20:52)
BART: Thanks for your guidelines. I think I will go & park my John Deere back in the grudge. ( Good joke Tortfeasor ) . As an observation, it is amazing how easy it is to flush people out on this site. Think about that one. I suspect a few people might be pondering things my way occasionally as well. In Australia at the moment, the electorate is sick to death of "political correctness", which we had to endure under Labor for 13 years. They held power through pandering to ethnic minorities. It was interesting to see though which ethnic minority groupS led the pollies by the nose. However, I will now be "ambassadorial", & pretend everything is just fine & dandy.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 20:54)
Seems that the NDX has fallen out of favor for the moment tonight. It's down 1265. Limit for the Globex on NDX is 3000. In the FWIW column, the Globex page has lost much of it's forecasting worth, IMHO, of course.

Steve - Perth
(Thu Jul 17 1997 20:57)
DONALD: Great news bites. You are right on the money about the currency weakness. I wonder how long the Aussie dollar will rise for. Maybe not long. I have held the view for many years now that we Pacific Rim countries will be herded into a Yen block. Looks like it isn't far around the corner. However it will probably not happen without a crisis such as is developing. Ever wondered how Korea got all their cheap finance in the first place? I think it was through the IMF at super low interest rates. Our country's manufacturing base has been decimated, & we are now flooded with cheap Asian cars. I even own one!! Plus a Ford also. Keep up the great research work Don!! Am right behind you.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:00)

Old H.4.1 out again this afternoon and wouldn't ya know it. Another 500 million dollars of our paper sold by foreign CB's. Looks like we got ourselves a trend.

Steve - Perth
(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:03)
Re: Hugh Morgan & RBA conflict of interest. Hugh Morgan's outfit is a BIG donor to Australian Liberal Party. So I don't think he will be moving off the board, unless he can't stand the media barrage. In the hands of the spin doctors now. I want to post news like Donald does. I don't think our local antics in that area are that newsworthy. Corrupt? Yes of course. As was said recently by a colleague, democracy does not work unless you have a little bit of corruption. ( unfortunately ) . To quote someone else, you are not guilty until you have run out of money ( for lawyers ) .

(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:11)

D. A. - Would you briefly explain your last post? Does such a move support an up or down trend?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:19)
Earl ( 20:50 ) WELL SAID!....EBN Gold up .10 and Silver down 1 cent..Hepcat: Get a life!....somewhere else!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:21)
Currency devaluations, Yen Blocs, President Clinton on the news tonight threatening the Euros over the Boeing-McD deal. Sounds like an old fashioned Trade War. Shooting in the Koreas, sounds like an old fashioned shoot-out at the OK Corral. Folks are getting nervous and macho. Not good for the world. ( but probably good for gold )

(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:22)
Milhouse: You mentioned on July 5 that you would update us on Armstrong's Princeton Economics forecast. I may have missed it. In any event, recent currency volatility seems to agree with his forecast. Do you have any other tidbits for us?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:25)
JIN: I appreciate your quick response and two e-mails in one day and I'll get back to you tomorrow when my brain will be a little less scrambled from the long road trip....How about the S.E.T. ( it's had some big days recently )

(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:28)

Earp, I mean Earl - So what number can I put you down for again?

It is painfully obvious that I know nothing and yet continue to best
you regarding POG, Earl. That's what this site is, Earg, er, Earl.
If we wanted to see you labor so hard to produce stilted prose,
wouldn't we go to an amateur writers' web site? Earl, don't you
have any family you can subject your pedantry on?

TED - Missile comin' your way. Har har har.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:29)
Gold has trended up since the open in Tokyo tonight. I don't believe we've seen that for awhile.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:29)
Novice: Look out for a low flying gull.....SPLAT!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:32)
Earl and Ted: We saw earlier this week that it isn't the messenger anjd his manners that counts around here its the message. Bears who have been correct in there forecasts get attacked and local experts who are wrong dayly for months are revered. Doesn't say much for the collective wisdom.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:34)

Over the last several years foreign CB's have purchased great gobs of US paper. These purchases are held on account by our Fed and the gross face value of the paper is reported every Thursday afternoon in the H.4.1 release ( its at the federal reserve site ) . Up until about the first week of June of this year foreign CB's were on an alltime massive buying spree. The total of their purchases reached around $650 billion with some $70 billion ( not sure of this number will check later ) occuring in the first five months of this year. Some folks around the world, and some at this site ( including moi ) believe that the huge purchases of our debt by foreign CB's over the last few years have been a major contributor to the financial asset bubble which has been created. Simply put, foreign CB's have financed our deficits, allowing whatever meager savings of the public to flow freely into the purchase of equities. Had the CB's not been going hog wild our interest rates would have been much higher thus effectively sucking money from the equity market and cooling off the economy. That there appears to be a reversal going on ( we are now down for about 6 ( ? ) consecutive weeks ) is perhaps crucial. It had been my contention that this would occur if and only if the dollar got too strong. In this case foreign CB's not wishing to see their currencies go over the deep end would begin process of selling some dollars to support their currencies. This appears to be happening. While the bond market has been strong during this period of selling I believe that this pressure will take its toll. I know that it is hard to believe that anything bad could happen to equities or bonds but this is a significant change in the fundamentals of supply and demand and not to be discounted. Its not something to hand your hat on for a short term trade, but as a big picture kind of thing its very real. Some day when we are on the otherside of the mountain people may look back at this info and say "oh yeah, that was obvious, of course that was the end of the bull market ..."

(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:34)
Hepcat: Har har har to you my friend with a HUGE inferiority complex....
I need a new servant....are you available???

(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:38)
Fundy ( 21:32 ) I didn't retire to my oceanfront house at age 42 by makin many bad calls....

the wizard
(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:44)
@ Oz
Gold's most recent pattern of higher lows, & including today's ( 7/17 ) surge; are in contrast to silver's 'insistence' on probing more lows, on the daily charts. In addition, stocks such as AEM are up 6+% today; how many nasdaq & nyse 'street-endorsed' issues are doing likewise? These factors, and many others, are suggesting that in the midst of the pervasive pessimism, esp. with the recent shake-out, the odds of a new bull chapter for precious metals, are increasing, dramatically.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:44)
D.A. At about 2:30 pm New York time today CNBC reported that a "large" T-Bond buyer had backed out of a commitment to purchase. The bond market was up before the news and immediately tanked.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:44)
EBN Gold up .70 and Silver down 1 cent.....

(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:44)
Say WHAT???? Soros short gold? Why would the largest stockholder in Newmont ( who is not hedged ) be short gold at these prices? Soros bought his position four years ago at $39 per share and sold a bit at $60 but still owns most of it. Why would he short gold? Unless........ he covered today and reversed. That might explain the huge volume in Newmont today!!!

And you thought I could only comment on Comex gold stocks!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:50)
D.A. : Can you please post the url of the Fed site.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 21:51)
What happened about an hour ago? gold and oil were up a little and whamo
oil drops .95 and gold $6? Everything has returned to up slightly after 1/2 hour.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:01)

I saw that Malaysia, Indonesia, and S. Korea stock markets were closed 7/17. Was this a holiday or is something afoot?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:01)
Ted: The message was not a personal attack just an observation of the prevailing sentiment.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:04)
S&P down on Globex and gold up 1.05 on EBN

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:06)
D. A. Upon reading your discussion of foreign purchases of US debt, I was reaching for the conclusion "and the US Fed is buying for its own account the securities sold by the other countries, in effect monetizing the debt and increasing US money supply." Is that right?

This could explain how the bond market is staying up in the midst of the divestitures you have described. Ultimately this will be inflationary and self-defeating, of course.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:09)

I will continue to maintain that there is a clear distinction to be drawn between messenger and message as well message and its intent. Though occcasionally violated, a bearish message is generally well received if delivered in rational and impersonal tones. If a writer finds his skills inadequate to the task of appropriate delivery, perhaps he would find satisfaction in a less demanding role. If, on the other hand, a writer's intent was merely to "stir the pot", he should have the decency to conceal his howls of outrage. John's last response to me should serve as example.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:10)
If this is indeed a turn Jerry Favors is going to be remembered for a long time

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:10)

Golly, TED, do you need someone to make up more stories
about your spiffy life, retiring at age 42 so you could devote your
time to telling everyone on Kitco they had E-mail? Isn't that what
all the wealthy illuminati dream of?

Between TED and GSC, we've got the market cornered on
early retirees. Do we have anyone out there in touch with the
real world as we currently know it?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:11)
Or, as another example, Earl's lack of response to my query.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:13)
john : What is a illuminati.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:14)
Taking a Look At The Forest
CPI inflation during the first six months of 1997 was the lowest since 1965 . Despite silver demand increasing and the lowest inventory stocks in the last seven years, its price has reached its lowest level since November 1993. Despite a tight platinum and paladium market, and a reported continued short squeeze, the PGMS have not resumed an upward thrust since their post spike correction. Despite an apparent improving global economy, copper has come off substantially from its highs, and the CRB is weak as well as Industrial Raw Materials. There is simply no industrial commodity of which I am aware that is currently looking strong. Oil is flat at best. And the strength of the dollar is contractionary.

In veiw of this, except for a rally induced by technical considerations, why would one expect gold to advance. In addtion to currency turmoil and latent systemic financial risks, gold, in its role as an indicator of inflation, reportedly begins to respond in price about one year before an increase in the PPI. And if one expects inflation to pick up during this period, it would then not be unexpected for gold to start basing even though all present economic signs are disinflationary. But if disinflation were to continue on its present trend for some unknown time, as bonds are currently predicting, and absent any currency or financial crisis, then gold may continue to decline - not because of CB selling, not because of speculative short sales, not because of producer hedging ... as these are merely symptoms of the cause - but due to gold's traditional role as as leading indicator of economic and other global conditions unfavorable to gold. Conversely, if conditions were favorable for gold to rise, no amount of CB selling , producer hedging or speculative selling could stop it.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:17)
LURKER2: Korea was open at least part of the day. It took a serious nosedive as per this story. I have no info that it closed early.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:19)
Anyone keeping an eye on EBN

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:19)
YES!Holiday in malaysia,probably in most musliman country.The birthday of the NABI MOHD.
I did covered all my short at 324.50.ALL of them !!the currency look extremely BAD here.Will play save and have a good holiday today.
peace mind today.........realised...errrrrrrrrrr

Big Time Tom
(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:24)
Selling at the bottom

John@home: I'm glad that you held on for a few more hours, John, and didn't sell at the opening price this morning, as yesterday you said you were going to do. I thought about you several times when the price began moving up today. I thought, "Wow, if you were depressed yesterday, you'll really be depressed tonight." But I'm glad you're not.

I recall that, when gold was at its recent low back on July 7th, John@hepcat wrote: "The bottom is not in, and people who are buying right now are going against the very tenet they claim to believe in: Don't buck the trend." But now Mr. Hepcat is predicting $325 an ounce on July 29th. So is this an admission, Mr. Hepcat, that you were wrong back on July 7th? And who is in a better position today? A trader who agreed with you and therefore shorted gold back on July 7th ( at $316 or $317 ) --or one who disagreed with you, went long back then, and took a profit today?

I am also reminded of RJ, who wrote last night: "Yes I am long silver and very, very short gold. Will hold off silver buys and put on new gold shorts." So...did you put on your new gold shorts this morning, RJ?--and how did you look in them? Seriously, are you still short gold, as I expect you may be?--and do you still look for it to fall below $300 an ounce? Because you are a trader who is very close to the action, I always appreciate your perspective on things.


(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:26)
Hepcat: I try and befriend you and you attack me...and here I thought we were "buds"...How are things in the "real world"??...I've been gone recently and am not familar with your take on the gold market,so if you could enlighten me.....

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:26)

In order to determine the correct pecking order at this site, I think we should
post not only our E-mail address but also what at what age we retired.
I, for example, retired at age 32. TED retired at 42. Therefore, since TED
squirreled away 10 years before retirement, his opinion should be weighted
accordingly. At some point we should also enter in net worth, but I think we
should give this AOR ( age of retirement ) factor a go before complicating it.
Naturally, there will be lottery winners and sports/personality figures who were able to retire ( or effectively retire ) before me. Their opinions should be accorded
the utmost respect, and could never be challenged. I'm thinking of getting
a panel together, say Mark Duper ( formerly of the Miami Dolphins, currently
penniless because of a nasty drug habit but retired nonetheless ) , that guy
who fronted for the Village People before pursuing a solo career ( on hold,
now in forced retirement while selling musical equipment out of his garage ) ,
and the most recent Powerball winners. This triumvirate would run Kitco and
dictate opinions expressed here.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:30)
well at least someone seems to think gold is going up. some timid stops on the after hours ( US ) market got taken out tonight in a blitz of trading down to $317 in a ten minute period around 2000 edt. and now after being down momentarily $6+ nynex/access is quoting last trade at $326 GCQ7, up $1.30 from Comex close. sly foxes and rogues out after dark...

*IF* the stock market has peaked--for a while--and the dollar is pausing at its peak, we could be into range time or--may we dream?--a meaningful rally. apart from jerry favors ( ) , a few dozen cool folk, et moi meme very few are willing to consider the possibility of a top in stocks. the bs in stocks is nearly as deep now as the bear scat was in april. lurk onto any of the stock chat sites and hear the half-witted expound upon the ease of making money to supplement that day job.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:33)
Hi everyone!! Nice to see things firming up in the gold department. Looks like the Thai's can't say the same thing in the Baht department........

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:35)
NJ ( 22:19 ) YES!...EBN Gold up 1.40 and Silver up 1 cent...HI Hepcat...I love you man....

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:36)
NJ I recall reading earlier that you stated you are a trader in metals but not through the future exchange. Accordingly, I presume then your trading is OTC. With this in mind, there was a report today than implied that the hedging by hedge funds accounts in part for the large turnover on the LBMA. Do you have any personal knowledge as to whether this may be true or what accounts for the high LBMA volume.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:37)
Seems that Microsoft has confidence in Thailand! That pesky Bill, he'll do anything for another billion or two..... From the Bangkok Business Times:

MICROSOFT has confirmed that its investments in Thailand will continue as the company is very confident that the information technology ( IT ) market will grow at an increasingly rapid rate in a long term.

"The investments will continue to be very important for Microsoft in Thailand in the near future," remarked Blas Garcia Moros, who was recently appointed as the company's director for Southeast Asian operations.

The appointment will take effect from August 1 onwards.

"Microsoft's commitment is to continue to grow in the marketplace while computer and software are essential for today's economy," Moros said.

He said the IT industry would be able to maintain high growth rate in the current economic situation because the use of IT in Thailand had not yet reached very high levels. .

To support its long-term investment, he said, the company would be looking for a long-term relationship with its partners who were able to complement Microsoft products.

Microsoft would invest over $200 million ( about six billion baht ) in local product de evelopment, he added.

According to the Acting Managing Director of Microsoft ( Thailand ) , Yudthana Aimthikul, the recent managed float of the baht would result in higher product prices.

However, the company was assessing the impact of the baht depreciation and preparing a solution package, he said.

The company yesterday announced that it would officially launch its best-selling Office 97 and Windows NT operating system Thai Edition on August 15 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center ( QSNCC ) .

The price of the software is still under consideration.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:40)
Even Singapore is pooh-poohing the Asian currency crisis. I suppose they should know better......

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:40)

TOM - I hope no one follows my advice for anything other than physical gold.
My prediction that gold will be at $325 on July 29 indicates that it's not going
to do much interesting for the rest of the month. Sorry that I can't predict
day-to-day, TOM. The short-term trend is still down. This hasn't changed.
Everyone gets into this all the time with gold stocks or whatever they want
to convince themselves they are right about - the shouting out of prices whenever
things are temporarily in their favor, regardless of the overall big picture. The reason I am posting so much today is because someone last night said I only post
when gold drops. Wrongo. I post whenever incorrect thinking needs to be
corrected, and that doesn't change on this site day-to-day. TOM, if you think
the bottom is in, buy, buy with all your heart and soul and money. Don't let
me stop you. Make sure to update us on your progress, as I'm not going
to lose sleep over where you'll be in a few months.

TED - Is that how you treat your servants? Tell us another story, TED.
Tell us how you cornered the market on Egyptian cotton, or turned a lion
inside out. We like your stories, TED.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:41)
Arden: hello old friend! what i heard is that soros piggybacked the aussie sale BUT is waiting to take delivery at some ( lower ) price. this used to be referred to as a chinese hedge. part of this rumor is based on the fact that gs entered into gold in late 1990 via australia and the $AD. since gs doesn't call me often i can't confirm this. :- )

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:50)
NJ: releases can be found here

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:50)

Aurophile - Do you have any additional information that would help confirm
this rumor, for example, at what age did you retire? At what age could
George Soros have retired, if he had wanted to spend his evenings on
the computer saying things like "low flying seagull" or "high-flying kayak"
as a cute way of indicating he sent someone an E-mail, something invaluable
for all the professional investors on this site?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:52)
Hello my dear friend...You never cease to amaze me but really how did you know about the Egyptian cotton

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:56)

The thought certainly crossed my mind but the jury is still out. Today's release showed a $1 billion decline in the currency in circulation account. I have a feeling that the FED is perhaps not in a mood to add more air to the bubble. They must be praying that only a small leak develops so their is an orderly retreat. They must know however that prayers are almost never answered in the markets. Certainly in the end game where the stability of the system is in question they will do whatever they can think of. One thing seems pretty clear, none of us have the imagination to conjure up the wierdness that seems destined to follow. I only hope it doesn't lead to anything real ugly.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 22:57)

TED - Light of my life, fire of my loins. Stop trying to co-opt me,
you filthy prig. By your own admission, we know who you are.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:04)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Don't know what Tomorrow will bring, but for tonight
here is a Champagne toast to all the Kitco GoldBugs,
from the Yacht "Kickin Back", from beautiful Newport Beach, CA.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:06)
john: your new medication seems to be quite effective in general, but i notice a little word salad creeping into your monologs once again. you may need to check blood levels or consult a professional regarding proper dosage. best wishes, as always.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:06)
EBN Gold up 1.10 and silver up 1 cent....and July 29th Gold @ 325...

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:08)
D.A. Thanks.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:09)

Well, as we get closer to midnight, it's clear that everyone except EB at this
site prefers not to put their money where their mouth is. Glad Kitco provides
a social circle for early retirees. Remember, you had the chance to shut
me up and you didn't take advantage of it.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:09)
Ted, I knew you were hot, but I never knew you went by the handle "fire loins". This site is becoming racy and Ted's at the head of the pack. So folks what have we today, a bull market in gold or a lot of bull in a bear market? The further question is can we bear a bull market? Why did that chicken really cross the road anyway?

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:12)
Earl: Don't know where you have been but bears are the object of scorn and personal attacks here virtually without exception. Hepcat is just the most obvious victum and obviously enjoys the whole thing.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:16)
john@hepcat. Well what can I say? You put yourself out to pasture early.
Fillies or should I say pussy cats started to tire you out, huh? Keep
this retirment rate up and this will be a channel of angels!

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:16)
This is how I short............
NoMercy @ 06:32 - In reply to your query of the mechanics of gold short: I work with physical metals on a five to one leverage. My clients do not pay lease rates on gold and silver shorts. In fact they earn interest. I know of nowhere else in this country, or even the world with such an interest bearing short position. The only way I can answer your question is to use actual numbers. Lets talk silver short first:

Sell $50,000 of silver with a $10,000 investment. Clients currently earn 6.5% on the initial 10K, or $650 in one year. I am computing at simple interest, the actual interest will compound monthly, so the numbers are better than depicted here. Clients will also earn 3% ( current rate ) for the entire market value of the silver - $50,000 - or $1,500 per year. $650 + $1,500 = $2,150. With the initial investment of $10,000, my clients earn 21.5% on their money in one year in interest alone, based on current rates. Silver currently has an initial turnaround cost of about 9 cents per ounce, a market drop of 29 cents will return a net profit of 20% in addition to interest earned.

Gold currently pays 2% of market value. $50,000 x 2% = $1000 + $650 = $1,650 or 16.5% return in interest in one year. Initial turnaround costs on a gold short are currently about $5 - $6 per ounce.

Now, maybe you can see why I love to be short. Approximately 80% of the time, the market is sideways or down. My clients earn $ in interest every day the trade is open. This interest is in addition to profits earned by price movements in their favor. It is important to note that my clients have no arbitrary delivery dates or expiration dates as they would with futures or options, so there is no pressure to cover in the middle of one of those market manipulations that are so common on first delivery notice or option expiration.

My clients also have the ability to use the same $10,000 equity to take a long position in another metal. This means that a client can have, for example, long silver, and short gold with the same 10K initial investment.

As you can see, I work with a unique program that gives me a unique perspective on these markets. I hope I didnt bore with this long explanation but there is no way to explain it properly without using real numbers.

As for the move in gold today, a gift from heaven. I will sell short here and higher, for I believe $300 and lower is in the cards.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:17)

Aurophile - As a physician, you above all people should recognize
that mental illness is not something to laugh about or wish upon other
people. Did you spend a lot of time on rounds making fun of schizophrenia?
To bring it to your level, think of it as a nasty case of psoriasis, or bullous pemphigus. Ouchie.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:24)
Fundy - I don't know that I enjoy the whole thing. It's more like I am forced to
enjoy the whole thing. I see my role as that of lightning rod, taking the
major jolts so that more reasonable and more seasoned opinions
can find repose here.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:24)
john: i wish you only good health and good fortune.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:26)
Big Time Tom
BTT - My silver longs did well today, although I now worry more about 4.00 than I ever thought I would. As for gold, I consider every dollar up another dollar for profit on the way back down. Yes $300 soon - 60 days - probably sub $300 - 275 - 280 later this year.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:26)
Vieserre : Your 22:36. You have me mistaken for someone else.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:34)
John: Whatever you say. Your taking a lot more jolts than necessary given what you say you are trying to do.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:35)
NJ Sorry, thanks for the reply.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:36)
Good evening Tort! We are up again tonight ( +1.10 ) but why did that chicken cross the road.....

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:36)

I very carefully qualified my comments to point out how a reader's reaction is related to writer's "INTENT". For example, if I were to say: "Fundy, you're a raging idiot for ever believing the gold market would rise again", my comment would be both bearish and ill conceived as a personal attack.

Having said such a thing, in the manner just stated; would I have cause to expect a full ration of crap in return? You bet! Yet, many positions are stated in just such a manner. Why? ... Is it for general enlightenment or ego aggrandizement? I submit for the latter.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:37)
Old Wall Street ditty:

He who sells what isn't his'n
Must pay it back or go to prison

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:40)
Fundy @23:34: You're absolutely correct words cease to have meaning. I give up. Promise.

George Cole
(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:41)
Current sentiment re;gold and stocks shows how easy it is to be bearish at or near the bottom and bullish at or near a major top

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:45)
The piper must be paid
Old Gold - Wise words, those. Life carries risk. I work in a speculative market, with risk capital. We aren't talking about using the retirement money or the kids college funds.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:46)
D.A. @22:56: Amen, on that one. Other nations have experienced the grand bubble and had the opportunity to recover. They were not however serving as the world's reserve currency as well as a major sink for its production. If we ultimately experience something similar to Japan, for example, I fear your last line will become inoperative. As in, null and void.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:48)
Schippi - spent some time last winter in Newport Beach installing satellite business data systems in Thrifty/Payless drugstores.
Fresh air, clear skies, impressive neighborhood that Newport Beach.

Got a little sailboat myself, if that's you mean by yacht and
not the motor variety ( a man without a yacht should be taken
out and shot - jp morgan )'s just a cute little thing, good
for crabbing out on Coos Bay. Somewhere in reading the S&L genre
filling a dusty bookshelf at the library I found the imperative
to seek restitution. A couple young turks managing a hi-yield
bond fund were emulating the vulture/raven tactics of the big
boys when the RTC was in full swing, investing the funds assets
in the distressed securities and properties left over from the
S&L affair, leveraging their big positions to advantage...
workout artists. Restitution, good name for a sailboat.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:57)
Goodnight all..........

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:58)
@ Newport Beach
Schippi - We are neighbors. I live, work, and play in NB.

(Thu Jul 17 1997 23:58)
RJ @23:16:

How many times can account equity be committed? If the same equity can cover a position in both gold and silver; why not a full measure of PL and PA as well? I would also assume that this does not apply to long positions where physical possesion might complicate the arithmetic.

Knowing no more than you have stated; would it be proper to assume that the short positions are naked shorts?