Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Fri Jul 18 1997 00:04)
John: $325.00 within five dollar's eh.. If you are as confident as you try to appear ( behind a key-board ) make it with in $1:00, and one month of silence from the loser ... well make it six months and then we will see if you can really act like a man.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 00:07)
John @hepcat @23:09: Comrade in arms, we would like to maintain your presence as a constant reminder of what is in store, should we fail to properly medicate. Reality is such a bitch without it. Eh?

(Fri Jul 18 1997 00:08)
I used to live on Balboa Island and NPB is one of the shallowest overtly materialistic anti-intellectual places I have lived. Sorry, just my opine!

(Fri Jul 18 1997 00:11)
Naked as a Jaybird..........
Earl - You have correctly surmised the general state of undress of my example shorts. As for hedge positions, any other metal may also be the long leg. The market value for the larger leg determines the size of the smaller leg. I have clients long PL and short gold. I would not accept a PL or PA short in todays market. Let some other broker have it, too dangerous for me. As for silver, even when it moves against me, I usually have a chance to get out at break even or better. If I layer in and out, both long and short, I generally have a play in almost any market. All I need is volatility. I have sometimes been accused of being conservative in a speculative market. I guess thats why Im still here, when so many others have fallen

(Fri Jul 18 1997 00:14)
WW - I cannot argue with your assessment. We do, however have better manners.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 00:17)
when you go out in public
don't show your 'silver'

(Fri Jul 18 1997 00:18)
RJ - Just wondering, Is your view of $300 gold based on a fundamental, technical analysis or experience? I thought that last time gold went to 286$, the consumption for purposes such as jewellry was much less than currently, which suggests a little more support at this low. Also Caplan writes about commercial buying. Also with 12 years of low but minor inflation, a low of 286 adjusted over 12 years would be something like current prices??

(Fri Jul 18 1997 00:21)
RJ: Since you must have some 'feel' for the number of others who operate in the same mode; I better understand your source of confidence vis a vis the future course of the accursed yellow. .... My choice of examples for alternate vehicles was not based on market considerations but merely for illustrative purposes.

Bib Time Tom
(Fri Jul 18 1997 00:23)
Sorting through the confusion

John@hepcat wrote: "TOM - I hope no one follows my advice for anything other than physical gold. My prediction that gold will be at $325 on July 29 indicates that it's not going to do much interesting for the rest of the month. Sorry that I can't predict day-to-day, TOM. The short-term trend is still down. This hasn't changed."

Hmmm. I find myself wondering, John, why I should follow your advice about anything including the price of physical gold. You do, after all, seem to live in a world of confusion. Contrary to what you say, for example, your prediction "that gold will be at $325 on July 29" carries no implication ( and in no way "indicates" ) that gold is "not going to do much interesting for the rest of the month." If gold were to spike up to $370 an ounce and then drop to $325 on July 29th, that would be quite consistent with your prediction and quite interesting as well. As for your statement that the "short-term trend is still down," you owe us some explanation of how you could possibly know that. Certainly the short term trend has been down in the recent past. But whether it is still down today depends upon what happens in the future. If the price goes back down in a day or two, then you are right. But if it continues up, then the short term trend that began on July 7th and includes today is up. That is just one more illustration of why talk about short term trends usually conceals a good deal of confusion.


(Fri Jul 18 1997 00:28)
ALL.....If you are purchasing fully paid for physical holdings in the metals now for the long haul you are OK.....If using margin or if you can get caught in a squeeze, you need to read VIESERRE @22;14......Read it VERY CAREFULLY....He said it very well.....

(Fri Jul 18 1997 00:32)
RJ :When the weather is that good all the time you cant help but have better manners. Everyone was pleasantly and shallowly friendly, but it is better than the honest overt rudeness of the East. When I was a single youngster in 1986 I stayed with one of my female acquaintances at Registry Hotel in Newport. A bowl of peanuts and appetizers was like $60. However, this was not what was shocking, we left the sliding glass door openand were eaten alive by barely visible black misquitoes/ it was unbelieveable. Is the hotel still there? It was just across the street from John Wayne Airport. We stayed there when I lived in Reseda for the Laguna Niguel Arts festival they hold down there in Orange County.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 00:41)
VIESERRE and ALL....With great potential also comes great risk...VIESERRE, your summation @22:14 should be copied and framed by all. ALL...if you are phasing into the market on a fully paid for basis, you will be happy over the long haul over the purchases made today and tomorrow....If you are about to drop the last shoe or fire the last volley, beware....even as is darkest before the dawn, more darkness is yet to come...

(Fri Jul 18 1997 00:44)
I view gold a bit differently
Paths - I have gone into great detail in previous posts about my reasons to believe gold will continue to decline. Rather than repeat, let me refer you to my own @ RJ ( Gold for the rest of 1997 ) Jun 12 1997 03:12. Other posts surrounding those dates can give you a more complete picture of my views about gold.

I think that gold has taken a psychological hit and fear continues to be the overriding emotion. Count on it, you will see more well timed announcements of ECB sales. Just wait until Germany or Switzerland jump into the fray.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 00:44)
RJ: how do you "layer in and out, both long and short"....? Thanx.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 00:49)
And soon now, as before, only whenever then, you'll see how...........
Savage - A twisted and loathsome abomination of a phrase, I admit. Was your query regarding trading strategy or my occasional torture of grammar?

(Fri Jul 18 1997 00:53)
RJ: Trading strategy; I wasn't being sarcastic.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 01:05)
RJ : People on this site are quite aware that numbers like 325,300, 275 and 250 are being talked about in the media, by known names such as Wayne Angell, Michael O'Neill and Andy Smith. You are free to cite any of those numbers but, if it is your own analaysis of the market, it would help if you include an explanation of how you arrived at it. Otherwise, there is nothing wrong with attributing it to the original source.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 01:11)
Home is where the ............ is.
WW- Newport Beach is as fashionably self absorbed and pretentious as ever, only now with noticeably more silicone and hairplugs. We have all read recently that Hong Kong has the highest per capita ownership of Roles Royce than anywhere else in the world. I have it on good authority that when California finally drops into the Pacific, Porsche and Mercedes will cease production of all convertibles.

The weather is indeed forever beautiful, and I do enjoy kayaking on Newport Bay, or Inline skating along the boardwalk. From my office window I can see the rolling Newport hills and Fashion Island in the distance. When in need of an ocean sunset, it is waiting for me less than 5 minutes from my office.

I grew up in Seattle and I do miss the trees and lakes, but I love my job and am able to overlook the more vacuous nature of So Cal. By the way, I drive neither a Mercedes or a Porsche.

The Registry is still there, I pass it daily on the drive to work. You need a reservation and a major credit card for peanuts and appetizers there now. Never seen one of those big black mosquitoes, maybe they where all eaten by those big black June bugs that come out in the heady days of August. Why arent they called August bugs? Maybe they are just fashionably late.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 01:15)
NJ - I'm not sure what you are trying to say?????

(Fri Jul 18 1997 01:25)
RJ : I was referring to your 23:26. How did you pick those numbers?

(Fri Jul 18 1997 01:41)
That's all, Goodnight.
Savage - To oversimplify a bit: I sold gold short from 350 down to 336. As the market dropped, I peeled of my profitable trades. I would then look to reshort after another rally. Likewise I buy the dips, never committing all resources. Should the price drop further, I layer in another trade. I spread the risk across a price range. This will put some limits on profits but offers great protection. I never lost a client yet for only making 12% on a trade instead of 20%.

Any player in this market will inevitably get caught is something like the July 3 Australian announcement. The rest of the world had two days to trade before the US could even respond. By then, the damage was done. A properly hedged position should offer protection against these unforeseen occurrences. When hedging one metal against the other, realize that all metals dont necessarily move in tandem. With a long silver / short gold, you can usually depend on silver moving faster than gold on a breakout. With proper limits and stops, I can usually find profits in any market. The key is to minimize risk to survive the unpleasant surprises so that you are there for the pleasant ones.

I put in new shorts at 322, and today at 324. The trend is down, so I will continue to layer in shorts with hedges to protect against a sudden rise.

Like I said, this is an oversimplification, but this might give you an idea of how I trade. There is something else that is more nebulous. After years in these markets one gets a "feel" for trading patterns. This sympathy is short sighted and sees only hours or sometimes days. This comes only with experience. I have mentioned before how I can sometimes tell how many martinis the traders had at lunch by the way the afternoon prices move. There are somewhat more predictable patterns one sees on option expiry or first delivery notice. Trading decisions should be made taking the market as a whole and not with just a narrow focus.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 02:08)
NJ - They are just numbers and do not represent a specific targets but rather levels I look for. I have detailed my reasons to expect these levels in prior posts.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 02:34)
I was traveling Thursday and just finished all of 7/17 Kitco in one sitting. I found the discussion generated from the market action extremely interesting and of real value. Thanks again to all ( but one ) .

However, one thing is clear. Bart -- I know this isn't a democracy, but if it were, and I had a vote, I would vote that you adjust your filter to make hepcat disappear with the rest of the coffee grounds ( no offense to coffee investors intended ) . He adds a bitter taste to the strong powerful brew that Kitco otherwise provides. Any value and insight he might offer is totally outweighed by his immature preenings. He is a distraction and detracts from the value of this forum.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 02:38)
John, I'll say a hyper-bullish 330 on the 29th o' July...
But, since I post so rarely, maybe my punishment for being off more than $5 is to have to post once per month. Or, have to watch the DOW creep over 8200 before the end of July.

Think less of your self and others will think more of you.

Not retired, love my job, not enough time to post, good jokes Tort.

John, take it easy, no one is betting their life on what you or anyone else posts here. Subtle accuracy screams so loud you need not use a horn to announce it.

Regards all,

Local time - before midnight

(Fri Jul 18 1997 02:43)
Conspiracy confirmed
Labor agreement in finalized, gold price rises, gold stocks rise. Hmmmm?

(Fri Jul 18 1997 02:44)
Missing address
That last post directed at John Disney.

John Disney
(Fri Jul 18 1997 02:59)
For DJ
If there was a conspiracy, they didnt cut me in on it. Sure does look
like it though - and they got a 2 year deal with no increases unless
justified by increase in productivity.
For those interested in DDEEP, I think its pretty safe now -
that is to the extent gold is safe. Were at or below 10 year lows for DD, Blyvy, and Buffels despite fact that at about 370$/oz the group would
earn about 2 rand /share and be valued at maybe 3 times what it is now.
Also their reserves would cost much less than 10$ per ounce, versus
over 150 $/oz for Barrick - Buffels entry still shows 10 % advantage.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 03:13)
I did say 325-July 29...but I did not say what it would do in between...
It will spike lower...jog higher...wander higher...languish lower...explode higher...dive lower...blitz higher...bungie lower/higher...skip lower...bolt higher...wait we're only talking 8 days...c'mon johnH...big deal...let's jump out on the limb a little bit?

What is the SPECIFIC number for platinum on July 29th.

Oh, and no thanks on the metal offer. You are too kind.

AWAY!?!?!?!? i think not


(Fri Jul 18 1997 03:21)
No faith!
John D. - If I really believed that theory I would have bet the farm in the last couple of days. I didn't. Still the timing of the spike down and the jump back up is quite suspicious. Has anyone really confirmed who drove it down?

Must hit the hay. Good night all.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 04:32)
Asian Buying
I posted on Monday comments by Harry Schulz ( noted goldbug ) that a large Asian syndicate was shorting gold and is now be ready to buy in again. Maybe he was right - could it be BT? Maybe Harry is BT?

By the way, I predicted over a week ago $325 gold by today on Hotcopper Forum in Oz. Suppose I get no credit on this forum.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 05:23)
EBN Gold down .45 and Silver unch....and we had such a good start in Asia last night...could RJ be right???

(Fri Jul 18 1997 05:44)
@the scene
Ted -- As nice as the move has been, it is still very possible for the Aug gold to quickly retreat to the 321 to 321.5 area before whatever else may happen. Of course, it would have to drop below the 323 area first! Watch that area and of course the 325 area for decent penetration. Just don't be surprised over anything it might do.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 05:55)
Mornin Eldorado! You are up early and actually I hope you're right about a possible pull-back as I'm lookin to buy more....The higher the DOW goes and the lower Gold goes the more it is a no-loss situation to jump in...
that is if you have no expiration dates....With major gold shares at these depressed levels I'm convinced that within the next 6 months or so one can easily make at least 40% on their money....if not much more...It's only a matter of time until money managers see the bargain basement prices while almost everything else is grossly overpriced...

(Fri Jul 18 1997 06:00)
EBN Gold down .20 and Silver still unch.....Am off to read the Journal and Tort.....WAKE UP...and give us a joke!

Mike Sheller
(Fri Jul 18 1997 06:08)
@the charts
Bonds still above 113 - interest rates keep falling on our head...stox will get support long as the 30 year stays in a breakout mode. Gold has closed its gap - no more no less - but G&S technicals look very good, all charts have nice bid spread bellies in their moving averages. This usually arrests a decline for a while. IF there's more to come on the downside, it will take a few weeks of working off congestion/support here to begin probing new lows. Silver finds LOOOONG term major support at 4.09 - 4.15. Below that range, and it's major deflation time.
PLATINUM: Has completed its return move. Oct PT must knife thru congestion between 400-410 to resume its merry way. Then, at this angle of acceleration, a quick run to 430-435 is not out of the question.
I say 434.50 midday, August 12, and then I can retire at 18.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Jul 18 1997 06:11)
correction mode
Sorry gang...meant to say "big" spread bellies. No offense to the portly.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 06:31)
Mornin Mike! Retire at 18....I can't beat that! You must have been pretty young in NAM....EBN Gold down .40 and Nikkei down a few hundred...Good morning JIN!....In case anyone is worried there WON'T be any repeats of last night as it was a one-time is too short!..The ocean is so calm I've got to jump in the kayak...

(Fri Jul 18 1997 06:33)
Miles Sheller= Mike Sheller....and ice=RICE!

(Fri Jul 18 1997 07:03)
Here's some food for thought. Russian gold story. Gets interesting towards the bottom. Russian's buying gold instead of saving Dollars? Nah, could never happen! :- ) )

Miles Sheller
(Fri Jul 18 1997 08:03)
TED: I think you're right...I have miles to go before I sleep!

(Fri Jul 18 1997 08:14)
Wow! One hour between posts, in the morning no less! Well, looks like another 'downer' Friday again. I have but one request, only one. Will somebody in South America or the Pac Rim area devalue or default big time please? Life is sooooo boring with the stock bull going up and up and up... Perhaps a 500 point down day on the Dow, just to liven things up.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 08:29)
For anyone who cares, NDX is down 1500 on Globex. They have one hour to turn it around. This could be interesting. Nah, just another bull fake out, besides, with competing currency devaluations...... Oh hell, just buy the S&P500. :- ) )

Don't worry, be HAPPY! :- ) )

(Fri Jul 18 1997 08:43)

Perhaps it will be that a little 'profit taking' might turn into a 'small correction' leading to a healthy 'intermediate correction' followed by a 'nasty sharp decline' engendering a 'gut wrenching freefall' and finally fathering an 'all out ( *&* ( & ) & crash'.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 08:43)
White Metals
Panda...see anything this morning on the Whites...Pa or Pl?? Any Russkie Trucks in sight? ; )

(Fri Jul 18 1997 08:48)
Joke of the morn
Ted, here it is; a bit late but better than never. May gold shine today and may the paper be shredded.

An old lady is rocking away the last of her days on her front porch, reflecting on her long life, when all of a sudden a fairy godmother appears in front of her and grants her 3 wishes ( she had no lamps to rub you see ) .

"Well now" says the old lady, "i guess I would like to be really rich" ****poof*** her rocking chair turns to solid gold. "And gee, I guess I wouldn't mind being a young, beautiful princess." ***poof*** she turns into a beautiful young woman. "Your third wish?" asked the fairy

Just then the woman's favorite and adored cat wanders across the porch in
front of them. "Ooh, dear, can you change him into a handsome prince? We've always been so close." she asks. ****poof**** there before her stands a young man more handsome than anyone could possible imagine.

She stares at him, smitten. With a smile that makes her knees knock ( not unlike Bill Clinton's ) , he saunters across the porch and whispers
in her ear:

"Bet you're sorry you had me neutered."

(Fri Jul 18 1997 09:03)
RJ - Considering the content of your 23:16 of last night, I now understand why my simple opinion, that contradicted your previous stated opinion that Gold would hit $275, drew such a heated response. If I had so much riding on such a prediction and such a system, I might also get a little uptight and fly off the handle if someone dared to contradict my 'written in stone' prediction. FWIW :- )

(Fri Jul 18 1997 09:04)
BillD, D.A. -- Something is bound to happen today, if for no other reason than I won't be able to watch this cup of milk turn sour! Today will be one of those days. Can't be watching for most of the day, so...

Haven't seen any trucks or boats, or even planes with PA/PL on the manifest. Hmmmm, must be for security reasons.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 09:18)
Venerable market analyst provides current trading insights: ...we top in the next two weeks. Not THE top, a top. SEE INGER LETTER FORECAST - July 17, 1997 Report:

Lan Man
(Fri Jul 18 1997 09:26)
Could the recent runup in high-tech stox have anything to due with the capitulation of goldbugs selling the pm and their gold stox and jumping on the gravy train? Wonder how many out there did exactly that...

(Fri Jul 18 1997 09:27)
Whither the Irish punt?

All this over airplanes? What next? Smoot-Hawley tariffs? :- ) )

(Fri Jul 18 1997 09:38)
Then again, a trade war could be ugly. They might sell our T-Bonds in retribution. :- ) )

(Fri Jul 18 1997 09:54)
@the scene
After retesting the 323 area from the top, Aug gold is now testing 325 from just above and just below. Could break either way. Silver and platinum are flat!

(Fri Jul 18 1997 10:03)
BIG negative TIC on DJIA....dropping fast at the moment...hum, Panda maybe you "looked into the future?"

(Fri Jul 18 1997 10:09)
you make me watching long grass Blow in the wind
Eld. 14:53-5:44 What's it really going to do? +5.40,+6.30,347.2,321,321.5,323,325...spike up, down..."just don't be suprised over anything it might do"??

Please, what is it going to do? UP or Down...oh...FAGIDABOUTIT! the let the BIG DOG EAT! yum yum


(Fri Jul 18 1997 10:09)

Bib Time Tom - I'm sorry I didn't get your handle right the first time.
It's clear you have an agenda, so that anything I post will be reworked
into your "John is confused" framework. If Gold goes to 370 and then
back to 325 by July 29, it would indeed be interesting. If a pig could
sing, that would also be interesting. For a buyer of physical gold, when
to buy is quite important, since gold is not immediately liquid. For example,
Mooney for the past eight months has recommended buying K-rands or Maples
each month, something I have vehemently disagreed with. On K-2, someone
keeps advocating buying St. Gaudens, again, a very bad idea in the current
market. Who was more confused over the past eight months? Had you
listened to me, you would have more in your bank account.
Bib Time Tom, this is something I'm very much not confused about - 95%
of the people who come fresh to this site are already thinking about buying
gold, and just need some confirmation that this is a good idea. From
being parked on this site for one year, we know that any time the question
is posed, Mooney will respond in the affirmative. We have heard for the
last six months that the benefit-risk ratio has never been better, yet all one
has to do is wait another day or another week and it gets exponentially better.
I recognize that once people get an idea in their heads, they are not going
to listen to an opposing view ( you are a perfect example, Bib Time Tom ) so
I tell people "go ahead and buy now if you absolutely must, if your oxygen
supply will be cut off if you are denied this folly, but buy the absolute cheapest
form of gold you can" so that the lesson they learn won't be so expensive.
At the same time, I indicate very clearly that they will be losing money if they
buy ( if they bought ) anytime over the last year.
At the closest, largest coin/bullion shop to me, they charge $30 over spot
for Palladium ballerinas. They buy back these same coins at $30 under spot.
This is a ripoff, and an overblown example of what you can expect with
reselling bullion gold, but, to take your hypothetical, walk into any local
coin dealer if the market goes up to $370 over the next week and ask them
if they'll pay $350 for your gold which you purchased for $340 when the market
was $325. They would be stupid to pay this much, given that it's been parked at $325 for the previous two weeks. You'd be lucky to get back what you paid
for it. Money in a savings account makes better interest than physical gold.
Here is my message stripped of confusion, Bib Time Tom:


You won't miss out. You didn't miss out yesterday. You didn't miss out
from last month. You didn't miss out from last year.

To whoever wanted to up the ante to $1 off and six months vacation, and
accused me of being yellow - I didn't see you post any numbers, big talker.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 10:18)
@the scene
I notice the XAU and HUI have turned just slightly negative. Probably in sympathy with stoxs in general. But if this begins to translate to gold, watch for breakdown below 324 Aug ( providing it happens at all ) .

(Fri Jul 18 1997 10:24)
@the scene
EB -- How should I know? I'm just a small fry in a large sea of sharks. That means I'd rather be following the sharks than being in front of them. If they turn, I'll turn right behind them.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 10:24)


Thank you for your posting to Strad concerning me. It is evident that I have been placed in a no-win situation. In normal times, I would just ignore your response and do as many have done in the past and just pass over your posts, as ignoring seems to be the only way to get past things unlikable. Let me be quite frank please. I don't know you. I have no idea whether you're white/black pink or green, I don't know how old you are. I know nothing about you. All I have gathered is that you seem to be posting from the UNC medical centre. You seem to be well educated, but at the same same time, want to intrude on others' events and happenings. You obviously, know nothing of me. To say those attacking things towards me was uncalled for, however, if I let them go, it will be seen by you, and possibly others, as agreement in kind. I do not agree, and so must respond to your prompts now. Surfice it to say, you are incorrect. I did nothing of what you refer to, and find it offensive that you would even think you had the right to say those things about someone you know absolutely nothing about. In short, "Who made you God?"

I continue to not appreciate ( not for any benefit to you I might add ) others who do not respond often enough to questions and that some of their posts are very vague. It is only my opinion. It does not make it a correct opinion nor does it give me the right to attack anyone. That is my opinion, BUT I have not / nor will not, EVER say this in a mean spirited way towards anyone, including you. I try to respect everyones opinion but I do not suffer fools well. It is a character flaw of mine and I've grown to recognise it through my years. However, it has stood me well since I tend to surrond myself with wise/wiser people. After my post to you the other day, I re-read it and realised it was too harsh. I could have, perhaps should of, left off the quoted section. For that I apologise, however, to have received such vindictive from you in response makes me wonder if, at this moment, you deserve a "sorry". I'll give one anyways since I wish this matter to be dropped and yet, not avoided.

Yes John, I am a professional investor. I do make my living in this manner. I have explained my methods and purposes to this group many times. I also retired at a young age, but that should mean nothing to you as you have the rest of your life in front of you apparently, as a doctor. From a personal point though John, as Strad said in his note, your attitude did seem to become a lot nicer after 325 had been reached. It has now degraded again though, I'm sorry to say, and that was what I was trying to convey to you in my post. I perhaps should have made that clearer, but I really did think you would see the message and realise that now someone, without any grudge, was saying something. Obviously you did not read it that way and it was my fault for not being more direct or even just saying nothing and ignoring you completely. I don't want to do that since some of your insights are very good, others times .... well, let's just say you should have thought about them more. But that's you and I respect that and chose not to bypast your thoughts.

In reference to posting under other names etc., I have not. In reference to the TTFN, I find that others have taken that as their signature. I thought it would show it was me but unfortunately, it has been taken over by others. I don't mind, actually I guess imitation is a form of flattery and that's very nice but to infer that because someone else posted using that and that it WAS me is taking quite a streatch at the truth.

John, I find you intelligent, thoughtful, and very self reliant however, you need to let the water run off your back a bit more to get along with the rest of the world. If you really don't want to get along, it's going to be a long and difficult ride my friend. Sometimes you're like a dog with a bone. Make your point, state your reasons and please stop acting as if you're right leaving no leaway for other opinions. No-one likes that John, and that's as clear as I can say it.


(Fri Jul 18 1997 10:30)
Hello Folks:

IMO there is nothing but "air" in the gold market above $335/oz.

It has taken a 17 yr. [1980-1997] gold bear market to get the Swiss and OZ out of the mkt..

It took a 14 yr. bear market in stocks [US] 1968 to 1982 to chase everyone out of US stocks.

Look out above!!!!!!!!!!

(Fri Jul 18 1997 10:39)
I AM GOING to marry Panda...DOW down 132 with big neg TIC

(Fri Jul 18 1997 10:40)
@the scene
Dow down 140. XAU and HUI holding up quite well at this point, neither being down a point. Metals flat. It'll be an interesting day!

Steve - Perth
(Fri Jul 18 1997 10:46)
Somewhere over the Rainbow....Sydney columnist on Gold situation
TED: Please do me a favour by not responding in any way shape or form to this Hepcat character. The interchange isn't remotely interesting. Obviously has no serious information either. A total waste of time. I'm sure there are plenty of other Kitco people who would like to respond directly to you Ted, without his input. You missed his unbelievable outbursts while you were away. You should go back in the archive & have a look for yourself. All he is doing is filling my computer cache up unnecessarily every time I update the postings.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 10:53)


A quick question if I might.

I know that the GCQ7 is correct for getting the current Gold BUT is SIN7 right for silver and PAN7 right for Pal? What is it for Plat?


(Fri Jul 18 1997 10:57)

(Fri Jul 18 1997 11:01)
The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy
Dr. Geoffrey P.Miller, Professor of Law and Director, Center for Study of Central Banks, New York University Law School - presents erudite and comprehensive study. SEE Editorials:

(Fri Jul 18 1997 11:01)
@the scene
Silver appears nearing the point of being able to make a 'move' up. Watch for Sept. numbers showing above 4.28-4.30.

Steve - Perth
(Fri Jul 18 1997 11:04)
DONALD & PANDA: You'll love this....
NZ Dollar in turmoil, Aussie Dollar holding.
IMF & US Treasury disturbed by the turmoil in emerging financial markets

(Fri Jul 18 1997 11:06)

IDT - re your 17/7 21:22 - the latest info I have from Princeton was written before the big sell-off and doesn't provide anything additional to what I have previously posted. However, another Kitco contributer ( NJ ) e-mailed me regarding some info he had received on 15 July. In summary, they are expecting any rally in gold at this time to be short lived . Minor support is at 313 and if this level is penetrated on any down move then it will drop to 280. Gold needs to close above 343 to confirm that a low is in place. Silver remains "the commodity from hell".

Regards, Milhouse

Steve - Perth
(Fri Jul 18 1997 11:19)
An interesting twist on splits

(Fri Jul 18 1997 11:19)
Silver...from "hell???"
Milhouse...can you pleae explain the "silver....from hell " comment.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 11:28)
Front, sorry got to run, but here is info.

PA=U7 L=V7 GC=Q7 SI=U7

Steve - Perth
(Fri Jul 18 1997 11:31)
Western Australian Gold Royalty may be postponed.
Colin Barnett ( Deputy Premier of WA ) may be trying to get Prime Minister John Howard off the hook before his scheduled visit/speech to the now infamous "Diggers & Dealers" conference in Kalgoorlie soon.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 11:39)
Milhouse and IDT :

Some clarification is in order. PEI calls 313.3 'vital' support. They have two time windows for THE low before gold starts on a major bull market lasting into 2003. The time windows are the week of July 7, 1997 and, failing that, the first quarter of 1998. If the July low is confirmed with a weekly close over 343.1 they feel that a rally back during the summer becomes possible.

A july low will also coincide with the market top call by Jerry Favors. He is one rare anaylist who who has not hedged his call with any ifs and buts.

Steve - Perth
(Fri Jul 18 1997 11:39)
Gold goes better with Coke...
APOLOGY: Colin Barnett is only the WA Resources Development Minister ( thankfully ) . He is Deputy Leader of the WA Liberal Party, not Deputy Premier. As if anyone cares, but am correcting this for the record.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 11:47)
NJ: If you have it available, would post Jerry Favor's URL. Thanks.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 11:49)
@four ewe

HONG KONG, July 18 ( Reuter ) - Gold extended its rally well

into Asia's Friday morning session on buying from Tokyo and

shortcovering in Hong Kong, while physical demand retreated on

the price jump, bullion traders said.

Hong Kong spot gold prices took their cue from New York's

upward trend and touched a high of US$325.50/60 an ounce before

settling at $324.75/325.25 at 0414 GMT.

"Tokyo buying pushed gold up to above $325 per ounce and

that sparked some profit-taking," said one dealer.

On Thursday, New York gold ended at $323.50/00, jumping as

funds and trade and commission houses bought healthy volumes.

COMEX floor traders said John W. Henry & Co managed futures

funds were seen leading the shortcovering in COMEX gold.

The higher prices had shooed away physical demand in Asia,

dealers said.

"Today the market is higher, so physical buying is very

quiet. It's too high for buyers but demand may kick in somewhat

if gold drops one or two dollars," a trader said.

Dealers saw gold trading within a broader price band of

$322.00 to $327.00 over the coming week after days of being

stuck between $315 and $320.

Before gold moved up in New York on Thursday, sales in Asia

had been strong, Singapore dealers said.

"The sales over the past few days have been very

encouraging. People were taking advantage of the price and they

were really buying," a jeweller in Singapore said.

But demand remained dogged by currency woes.

"All of these currency fluctuations is not good for gold,"

another bank dealer said.

Speculators have attacked the Thai baht, the Philippine

peso, the Malaysian ringgit and the Indonesian rupiah over the

past few weeks, with the baht and the peso forced to devalue.

"We're experiencing a mini-boom in gold demand at the

moment. I think it will last one to two months. We'll be slowly

tapering off and then it will pick up towards October and the

holiday season,"the jeweller said.

Singapore premiums were quoted at around 65-85 U.S. cents an

ounce over spot London prices from 70-75 cents last week,

dealers said.

Doc Duke
(Fri Jul 18 1997 11:49)
Vronsky: Thank you for ( re? ) organizing your editorials so that we primitive "graphics-off" browser users can get to them.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 11:51)
@from London
LONDON, July 18 ( Reuter ) - Bullion prices seemd to be steadying on Friday after rising on fund short-covering in New York, leading dealers and analysts to ponder the likely extent of the recovery.

``The bulls are jumping for joy and forecasting ( a price of ) $330.00 per ounce. That might be possible but $340 and $350 look less likely,'' said bullion market analyst Ted Arnold at Merrill Lynch.

Gold opened in Europe at $323.35/$323.75 up from $319.30/$319.80 at the Thursday close in London and fixed at $323.45 up from $319.40 on Thursday.

It was the highest fixing since immediately before the Reserve Bank of Australia announced it had sold 167 tonnes of gold from its reserves during the previous six months and plunged the gold price to around 12-year lows.

The price fall was driven by the investment funds massively extending existing short positions in anticipation of prices falling to levels under $300.00.

But that sentiment has dissipated this week after physical buying of gold provided a base for the price between $315.00 and $318.00.

The recent low was $313.60 plumbed on July 7.

``Gold is reacting much as expected. It has reached a consolidation point on strong Middle Eastern demand after the funds had done what they could,'' a dealer said.

Gold reached a high of $325.70 during the Asian trading day but came off in choppy trade near the close leaving some dealers expecting it to settle in a $323.50-$318.00 range.

A break through $325.00 and the next resistance at $326.60 would be needed to take gold to higher levels. Some interim support should be available at $322.50, technical analysts said.

Short term lease rates have fallen reflecting increased market liquidity as fund short positions were covered.

The implied one month rate was 2.15 per cent on Friday down from 2.62 on Wednesday. The three month rate was also trimmed to 2.03 percent from 2.21 percent.

A dealer noted that the buying season for Eastern festival and post harvest demand and Western Christmas buying was only a couple of months away and usually stimulated prices.

Silver responded with gold adding six cents from the close to $4.26/$4.28 after its downside held under pressure earlier.

Platinum was also firmer at $406.00/$409.00 up $4.50 and palladium at $179.00/$182.00 was $4.00 firmer.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 11:57)

Precious creeping ever so slightly higher. Every little bout of selling has been bought. I know so well the feeling of being on the otherside, looking for an opportunity to get out, but it never happens.

Watch for 'The Return of the Palladium Monster ( Part II in 3D ) ' its coming to a trading desk near you.

Being the gold bug that I am, here's hoping for a big close into the weekend. BTW, the dollar doesn't seem too pleased with weakness in the financials. The race for the bottom is on.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 11:58)


(Fri Jul 18 1997 12:07)
tick tick?
D.A. No longer tick tick. DGSE is reporting gold up 2.3 to 325.75.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 12:14)

(Fri Jul 18 1997 12:16)
Yesterdays data got cut off at lunch time. Someday I'll get this UPS working!

(Fri Jul 18 1997 12:18)
EBN commodity board looks KEWELLL ( cool ) !

(Fri Jul 18 1997 12:24)
BART: two queries:
1 ) could you give us an update on the development of the search engine?

2 ) future enhancement request: limiting the number of posts that load upon entering the site to the latest 'x' number with the option of being able to manual scroll back further if needed after logging in?

Many thanks for a great site!!!.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 12:35)
Panda & BillD

Thanks guys....

This increase is just running away from me. I was hoping to get in just before 4:00pm with Gold less than 326 but it seems it's hit and staying already. In my books, 326 is now the floor so I solemnly retract my dead cat bounce. Of course, if it does bounce, please ignore all of the above as I'll deny every having typed it!


(Fri Jul 18 1997 12:35)
BART, must be a mistake, you quote shows a day high of 339.40 Gold and 4.84 Silver !!!!
Sure looks good while its there.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 12:41)
A little humor while we watch Gold soar!

(Fri Jul 18 1997 12:47)
Bart, re: GVC ( @Bart ) : Good suggestion!

(Fri Jul 18 1997 12:50)
@GCQ7 overnight chart?
anyone know where I could find a chart of the overnight action in August Gold ? it was whipsawed pretty violently last night, but spot held steady.

Big Time Tom
(Fri Jul 18 1997 12:58)
Got your goat, didn't I?

To John@hepcat: Wow, I really did get your goat, didn't I! But since I am unable to make much sense of your latest ramblings and see no relevance in them to anything I have written, I'll just sign off and let you have the final words. So go ahead and blast away, my friend. Believe me, I have seen sophomoric ravings before, and I always get more of a kick out of them than I should.


(Fri Jul 18 1997 13:01)
@the scene
Now that's what I call a 'nice' lunch time! Came back to find that it broke North and not South. Nice indead! Can't say the same for crude though. Fell back through the down trend line and stopped me out. Didn't cost much though. Now we'll see what it does from its' 50% retracement area. Silver not reacting as expected at the 4.30 level. Could be wanting to see 4.32 after all? Platinum finally showing a little life. Got to get at least the silver behaving more properly in my estimation. Unfortunately, I'll be on vacation next week and won't be able to play. Today is all I get in the futures for a week.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 13:02)
re: hep-rat-cat

during his usual diatribe yesterday, he indicated he had retired at
the age of 32 years young. this is a possibility except for the
OTHER statement he made about working for the gov't at their
center for disease control ( cdc ) several weeks ago. some-one
alluded to him and a nosler bullet getting together for a
party. this comment caused him to threaten that same
individual with intervention by the entity he worked

this gutter snipe is nothing but a liar and provacteur,
and should be banned from this site.


how long will you allow this to continue? YOU are the only
one who can stop this. it detracts from this site, and is only
going to get worse as he spreads his venom to all who are
valid contributors.

i cast my vote for permanent censure and ex-communication.

being a gold bear has nothing to do with what he is doing here.

how does the rest of the kitco-ites vote? sound off, so bart
will have consensus for some much needed fly-swatting!

cherokee!; ) launcher-of-flaming-cyber-arrows for the good of
good people on the best web-site in the free world.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 13:12)

Bib Time/Big Time Tom - Don't flatter yourself. You didn't get my goat.
You asked a question last night, Tom ( or was it a hypothetical? ) . I answered
the question. At what point did I attack you? I attacked your method of
asking a question without wanting to incorporate an answer. It's like when
you read a book and don't let the author's words interfere with your conception of what the author is saying.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 13:17)
More to Come
Taking a look at the futures contracts on DBC, everyone is up except energies and cattle with CRB over a 100 basis points. A hedge fund is rumored to be covering gold and shorting bonds. Perhaps the inflation outlook as turned.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 13:19)

Cherokee - I love it. I would definitely vote for kicking off everyone
who has ever exaggerated on this site. Let's see, who would go

Hepcat - Defrocker of silly old rabble rousers who hide behind
sobriquets and emoticons !;- )

bb fisher
(Fri Jul 18 1997 13:21)
to all:

to adequately appreciate where "hepcat" 'is comin from' re-read or read anew the works of langston hughes. to my mind a wonderfully evocative poet from the first half of the 20th century. ole langston pretty much has hepcat sized up and after reading this marvelous poet you will as well!

bb fisher
(Fri Jul 18 1997 13:23)
to all:

to adequately appreciate where "hepcat" 'is comin from' re-read or read anew the works of langston hughes. to my mind a wonderfully evocative poet from the first half of the 20th century. ole langston pretty much has hepcat sized up and after reading this marvelous poet you will as well!

(Fri Jul 18 1997 13:29)
going up
One factor not discussed this morning is the possible effect that the Republican Party turmoil may have had on this market. One view of the excellent economy and booming stock market ( and low gold ) is that the Republicans have effectively caused Clinton to move so far right that there is no fear of Democratic/Liberal policies messing up a decreasing budget deficit and other good results.

However, with an ineffectual opposition, I suspect that there are enough money managers who fear Gephart/Hillary having more influence. The sudden jump today in the CRB and drop in the 30 year bond didn't just happen. With this conclusion based partially on a political worldview, I expect some other viewpoints.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 13:41)

As much as I would like to give credit to the Republicans for all things good, I think today's CRB rise has a lot more to do with lack of expected rain in key farm states.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 13:44)
jonhny! I love you child! mother will always, love you. Don't forget to brush your sounds like you've been eating a lot of ****

(Fri Jul 18 1997 13:46)
free speech
CHEROKEE.... I must disagree with banning all that disagree and have unusual posts, such as John. I find it much easier to reach a conclusion when I see what the other viewpoint is. If he bothers you, just skip by his posts. In his case, since he has not answered my questions about putting his own money on the table, I assume that he is blowing smoke. Anyone can make money trading on paper and look good, but the credit belongs to those in the arena, who put their money where their mouth is.

I appreciate the post by RJ, for instance.

In my case, after gold went up through 326 with the CRB up, 30 year bond rate up .05 today, and XAU past its recent resistence, I am now 100% in. Since I am wrong about 60% of the time, I place myself open for juvenile criticism from others if I am wrong. That's OK with me; my technique works for me and that's what counts.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 13:48)
@the scene
RJ -- Wish I had those overnight charts too! That was a pretty amazing night last night. I thought it would be 'interesting', but not 'that' interesting! There must be someone here that has them to post.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 13:53)
My grandson Ernie, God love him, he lives for the Internet. He says, "Grandma, it's just about got my name in it." Get it? Anyway, if I could be with my young friends here at Kitco I'd give every one of you a root beer right now! Florence, Emma, and I are up 4% today! What a hayride!

(Fri Jul 18 1997 13:53)
@the market
Looks like the 'air' of possibilities has has caught up with the other metals. About time! Aug gold has now reached 329.00. OOPs! 330.00 now!

(Fri Jul 18 1997 13:53)
@ The Public Library
At yesterday's XAU close and today when the HUI broke 141, I got a signal that we had a bear market failure in the XAU and have now started the bull market in gold stocks. IMHO

(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:03)
Morning boys: Just got home from the casino on the Gold Coast here in Australia. Won $100 on blackjack and oooh my gold 330 .... everybody wins a prize...... HEHEHE

(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:03)
Hepcat has every right to post his thoughts. The more points of view the better.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:04)
@the market
Gold been up as much as 6.20 so far. Aug at 330.9. Maybe we'll see 335 today!Platinum now moving. Up as much as 7.30 so far. Prices now dropping off a bit.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:04)
@Close ???
Are we gonna have a big rally at the end of today to close out the week?
Sure would be nice to see those big time shorts sweating hard over the weekend, for a change....
According to CNN yesterday, maybee 3000 tonnes short, and much of this must be at the lower price range.

langston hughes
(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:04)
I wrote this just for you BB, since you're a fan:

"The rich dark depth of pained souls
Looking with imagined freedom through ugly glass
Rivers deep of worn treasure - hearts stained and strong
Gold up $5"

Bernatz de ventadorm
(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:05)
Le_fou @ hep_le_chat
To all mah frens at Kitko--

Ah Luv zeez monsiour le hepcat. Ah luv heem. Ah want
heem to write more an more - Please don mak heem stop
writing by dam.
He mak me feel so - ah don know - superior .

(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:06)
Now you boys, don't you pick on my misundertood child! johny you make me so proud! just remind them who you are. And do our family name proud, child! LOSER! because a Loser you were born and a LOSER you are now and a LOSER you will die. Love you child!

(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:07)
"The rich dark depth of pained souls
Looking with imagined freedom through ugly glass
Rivers deep of worn treasure - hearts stained and strong
Gold up $5.30"

(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:08)
Eldorado: I justed dropped in before bed, looks as good as last night. You got to love it eh!

Bernatz de ventadorm
(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:13)
For ma fren RJ

Ah have been wondering about your position which is short zee gold
an go long zee silvair - woooo - Ah don like eet so much ma fren.
Ah zink you are too much hitch up zee skirt ( and ah don weesh to
criticize you on zat one by dam ) but eet ees not so good for zee
concentrasion in mah experience.
Keep your eye on zee sparrow when zee going he gets narrow.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:16)
@the scene
Looks like so much for silver today. Fell off to just +2. Gold now testing the 328 area. Watch out for any fallback through 327! At this time, it's just kind of looking like traders going home empty for the weekend, like me! I'm now on vacation!

(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:17)
Polls are open
Cherokee - I voted last night ( see my 02:34 ) . I'm with you. And my vote has absolutely nothing to do with hepcat's opinion or views. I welcome and relish all input. But I'm mostly a lurker. Let's hear from other principal contributors.

Go gold!

(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:19)
@ Testing
Would like to see the XAU break through 97.90 + today. Fell short with today high so far. Interesting 15 minutes coming up.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:25)
Oh DJ that's not fair! whats a mother to do! decisions decisions
I love my child! but on the other hand?
DJ I need more time!

(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:31)
NAILZ: Thank you. EARL: My compliments on a good bottom call.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:34)
@ The Comex Close
XAU firming up with the Comex Close. So far a good sign.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:40)

Larryn - Since you've already made your decision even before my response, what difference does it make what I say?

My, what a fragmented site we have today. How many of these posts sprung
up as a result of my badinage with RJ2 on the other site? I wonder.....

Well, now that everyone is feeling their oats with gold up, I can't wait for
all the talk about everyone feeling their bottoms this weekend. Remember the last
time the bottom was in, after the paradigm shift regarding Hashimoto's
comments at Columbia U? Whoo, that was some bottom, huh? Remember
the last bottom before that, at $337 and could never go lower? What a bottom
that was. Good luck with this bottom, Kitcools. Hope collectively you don't
weight too much.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:41)
THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Feds 262 million oz. Gold at $325)
Why has the U.S. - fountainhead of antigold sentiment - NOT SOLD any of its gold while encouraging its allies to sell?? - Coles Market Insights poignant question:

(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:44)
in the barrel

(Fri Jul 18 1997 14:57)
in sack-o-tomatoes
7/18/97 -- 2:10 PM

Financial travails in developing markets: danger for U.S.?

NEW YORK ( AP ) - It made an early stop in Eastern Europe, lingered in Southeast Asia and touched down in Latin America. It
devalued currencies and roiled stock markets.

A bout of financial turmoil has been wending its way through developing markets, almost lost in the shadows of the booming U.S.
economy and Wall Street euphoria.

So far, the financial unease has been relatively isolated. There has been no ``tequila effect,'' the term used to describe the devastating
impact of Mexico's 1994-95 financial crisis, which spread shock waves around the world. Washington rushed in with a hefty aid package
for its neighbor to contain that crisis.

But there could be dangers for the vibrant American economy lurking in the financial troubles of Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia and
other developing nations, particularly if they spread.

``If a lot more of this continues to happen, it creates more global instability, which is not good for any economy,'' said Anthony Chan,
chief economist at Banc One Investment Advisors Corp. in Columbus, Ohio.

But he added that the developing nations' woes have not reached that level. ``I don't think we're there yet.''

The turmoil in developing nations has been caused partly by huge runups in their debts and trade deficits. Eventually it could stall their
not-so-long-ago high-flying economies, which could hurt exports of U.S. goods and services to those countries.

Currency devaluations, particularly at a time of a strengthening dollar, could help these countries sell more goods abroad but make
American goods much more costly. With many of those countries important buyers of U.S. products, exports could shrink, hitting
companies heavily reliant on overseas sales.

``That is the major risk for the U.S. economy,'' said Cynthia Latta, senior financial economist at DRI/McGraw-Hill in Lexington, Mass.
``I don't see any of those countries causing need for the Mexican-type of bailout from the United States.''

Another impact on the economy could be increased sales by foreign central banks of U.S. Treasury securities they hold in order raise
money to support their currencies in foreign exchange markets.

Such sales would increase the supply of U.S. securities, which in turn could reduce demand and push up interest rates, said Michael
Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America. He predicted the impact, though, ``will be minimal on the U.S. economy.''

Despite the financial jitters, Cynthia Liu, a vice president at Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc. in San Francisco, hasn't seen a
rush by investors to pull money out of broad-based mutual funds specializing in foreign investments. Many, she said, have been cautious
about Asia.

But she said the turmoil ``is introducing a very volatile factor into emerging market investing.''

The developing countries' financial woes, some building up for more than a year, worsened in the spring.

In late May, the Czech central bank, beaten down by speculators who decided the koruna currency was overvalued, abandoned its
artificial restraints on the koruna's exchange rate. The koruna, once the most stable currency in post-Communist Eastern Europe, fell

Southeast Asian currencies and stock markets have been hurt the most, particularly in Thailand, which a few years ago was one of the
region's buoyant economies.

Struggling with an economic slowdown and the collapse of an inflated real estate market, the government relaxed its defense of the baht's
exchange rate last month. The baht fell 15 percent vs. the dollar.

Thailand's woes spread to its neighbors as speculators in the foreign-exchange market bet other currencies would fall.

The Philippines quit costly efforts to defend the peso, easing its tight management of the currency and allowing it to depreciate. The
government said Thursday it will have to borrow from the International Monetary Fund.

Indonesia said last week it would allow the ruppiah currency to trade in a wider range, and Malaysia eased its grip on the ringgit.

Stock markets in Singapore and Taiwan also have been jolted.

From Southeast Asia, the turmoil advanced early this week to Brazil, then Poland and Greece. New Zealand's dollar also weakened.

Fears Brazil's currency, the real, would be devalued sent the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange, Latin America's largest, down 15 percent over
the past week. That would be the equivalent of a 1,200-point slide in the Dow Jones industrial average.

One important reason the financial troubles haven't incited a broader climate of fear is they still are seen as relatively confined to the
countries immediately affected.

``The market has become more sophisticated,'' said Marc Chandler, senior currency strategist at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell. He said
there's a realization that developing countries are diverse, and when ``one sneezes, it doesn't mean the others will catch a cold.''

(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:05)
Mulblaster - You're crazy! The whole issue in that episode is whether Kirk and Spock should honor the pacifism of the Organians and let them be slaugh - oh sorry, wrong discussion group! Please excuse.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:10)
Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL Part - III (7 July 1997)
JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK & HARD SPOT: Nippons To Dump U.S. Treasuries & Buy GOLD! This report displays the Bank of Japan's ( BOJ ) June 27 Balance Sheet and a chart of Foreign Central Bank Holdings of U.S. Treasury Bonds versus the S&P 500 Index:

International financial analyst, ORACLE, has expanded on initial findings of Barrons Randall W. Forsyth ( Barrons magazine ) and Internets Economist George S. Cole. The Land of the Rising Sun is plagued with financial difficulties, choking on U.S. T-Bond indigestion, exacerbated by a pittance gold position, and a must need to reduce excessive dollar exposure to stabilize Yen/Dollar parity. Due to the BOJs Balance Sheet and the chart of Foreign Central Bank Holdings of U.S. Treasuries, the website is a little slow to fully load - HOWEVER, I GUARANTEE YOUR PATIENCE WILL BE AMPLY REWARDED -- there is a starling revelation of the relationship of foreign T-Bond purchases and the speculative and relentless rise in the prices of Wall Street stocks.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:17)
Tthe dollar has been showing very strong performance but gold is now even stronger. This is a fundamental shift for gold. This along with Bill Buckler's post of a p&f double bottom for gold ( in A$ & US$ ) signals at least a major correction in the gold bear market or a transition to a true bull market.

I expect gold to attempt 340. If it betters this ( which is quite possible if the shorts capitulate ) we could see at least 355. What kind of a correction we get ( at 340 with the shorts - high OI - or 355 without them ) will tell us whether the bear has been beaten ( yet ) .

(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:17)
Yes, you tell them child! leave and come home as mother still loves you. They don't appreciate you here, you wanted their "gold prices" to hit bottom, so they would be miserable, just like you are and always been! Yes Johny misery loves company, come to mother Johny Loser, come child!

(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:18)
"I will not respond to, comment upon, or in any way recognize any posts to this discussion group that are either ( 1 ) inappropriate, or ( 2 ) posted by any individual with a recent history of making inappropriate posts."

(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:20)
In response to a steadily diminishing number of requests, here is the day's GC action in 5 min bars. Closing trades were all to the upside.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:21)
For those not perpetually glued to Kitco, it is worth pointing out that the Kitco chart as updated at the close glosses over some last minute dramatics. The shorts had gold hammered down to 326.20 ( or lower ) with five minutes to go, and we closed back up at 328.60. This may be on view at gold eagle. Comments from Glenn and others should be of great nterest tonight.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:23)
GFD: Per your comments, if GC closes the month +/- 335 the monthly chart will be in a trend change mode. ie, it will form a hammer for July. A noteworthy indicator.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:26)

Hey Mom - You'll have to excuse me, I thought you died in the auto accident that
also partially paralyzed my sister six years ago. I'm sure the Kitco corps can
find a way to make fun of that too, as they have such a winning way with tact.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:27)
@spin masters did not say a word about gold today
I just did a search on yahoo for any news on gold. Nada, zero, nothing!!
I guess boys are trying to figure out what to say. What a difference in
reporting when gold goes up versus gold going down.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:30)
King Kong vs Godzilla
And we have front row seats!

Earl: That's a cool 5 min chart! The next couple of weeks will be facinating to say the least. With rumors of 2,000 ton short postions a lot will be at stake.

RJ: So does today's action quatlify as a high martini day or low martini day?? :- )

(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:32)
New Paradigm
Miro: I have often heard of "news following the markets" but never "news running away from the market" :D

(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:34)
Why is that? Is gold a Republican? Seriously - this is very interesting. Does anyone dispute the premise, that the media loves to report negative news on gold, but not positive news? Does anyone know why? Here's a shot - the press stands against all that is absolute. Relative morality is the order of the day. Gold represents an enduring absolute of the sort that the media loves to knock down. If gold were synthetic, they would be in love with it. N'est ce pas?

John's Sister
(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:34)
@we kicked him out of the house
talk about tact, I think you've cornered the market on that one, JOHNNY boy

(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:35)
Earl : thanks for the chart. At the end, would you call it an engulfing pattern?

The Breadstown Ladies
(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:40)
Entered @ $314

We've been giving those shorts hell and hope to continue the fun.
Annie Mathilda our gold expert says, first move to $333, then a week of contemplation for next signal.
Opinions. opinions; just like Asshol_s, everybody has one, just that some are bigger and who pound their dingy's if a bit correct.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:41)
NJ: Coming from a low, I think it's called a "piercing pattern" rather than an engulfing pattern. The engulfing pattern marks tops. Given that it's Fri and also the closing bar I don't think it's anything to bet the kid's milk money on. ....... Someone really did run the price up, on the last few trades of the day. Perhaps Glenn will comment on it.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:43)
Aug 97 gold futures rose continually to peak near 331 at 2PM. Then Shorts pummeled gold down nearly $4. However, shortly before close zoomed to close +$4.90 at 329.60. SEE Chart:

(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:43)

Nice little chart. C'mon, don't hold back. What do you call those last few candles? How about 'young bull snorts, wounded bear fights, papa bull kicks butt'? Na, doesn't quite have that delicate oriental flavor.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:47)
Storm Clouds
The recent bout of currency instability should be examined carefully. The great depression of the 1930's was alleged to have started with the collapse of a small bank in Austria. My attenae have been twitching over the last few days at some of the posts on Kitco where terms like "competitive devaluation" and "smoot hawley".

Instability goes both ways. Greenspan does not want the dollar skyrocketing any more than he want's it plumeting.

The current icon of this market is the dow industrials index. All of the dow companies are global companies that report their profits in $US. *Significant* earnings disappointment due to unstable currency markets will be more than enough to put an axe into the head of this mania.

RT(not J)
(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:57)
@Vronsky...Aug gold chart
VRONSKY: would you possibly have available the GCQ7 chart from last night's trading action continuing on into this morning?? Eldo and I would love to see it if you do. many thanks.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 15:59)
After reading Oracle's comments on a world gold standard I have the following question. If the G7 were to adopt some sort of gold standard, what would be the impact on the price of silver? I'm a silverbug. Should I be investing in gold instead? If I buy both gold and silver what ratio is best? 10 oz silver to 1 oz gold? 100 oz silver to 1 oz gold? Keep in mind that I'm a "small" investor. My total silver holding at this moment are only around 1600 oz. of silver. I'm now in the postion to purchase another 1000 oz. of silver. Is now the time to buy and should I buy silver or gold?

(Fri Jul 18 1997 16:00)
Storm Clouds II
Someone posted here earlier about gold rising with the dow in the last segment of the market. With gold acting well in the face of a strong US dollar and the dow earnings being potentially threatened by the same strength we may now be witnessing the setting for the last stage of the bull market mania.


(Fri Jul 18 1997 16:03)
There you go again, silly child! you got that wrong too, remember? yes the accident was my fault six years ago, and you "wished" I was dead silly child, remember? but as you can see, you must be allucinating again, oh lord, and today of all days, when there is such a beautiful GOLDEN sunshine! Johny, it wasn't your sister, who was paralyzed it WAS you child, remember? oh well how could you after your brain surgery

(Fri Jul 18 1997 16:18)
with the lantern
all that glitters is not gold

(Fri Jul 18 1997 16:23)
The gold eagle charts of the four precious metals are particularly interesting today. All four were up most of the day. Gold and Silver were attacked by shorts at the end of the day. Gold was rescued at the end by BT or someone else, but silver was not.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 16:23)
Interesting times a comin.Try this then click on "Storm Clouds of Inflation"

(Fri Jul 18 1997 16:28)
CNN reports- rumors of Soros Management selling $800 million in Treasuries and buy Gold

(Fri Jul 18 1997 16:36)
COT report as of July 15

(Fri Jul 18 1997 16:37)
Earl : Thanks. Maybe we can ask D.A. to explain the charts. My very basic information is comes from

(Fri Jul 18 1997 16:39)
CNN: "The market's really short now. If you had enough money, you could go long and just sell to the shorts on the way up,"
Doesn't this sound pretty.
MIRO: I had the exact same thought today about YAHOO. No Gold coverage.
I sent them a not too complementary e-mail.
Great minds do think alike.....
Like I poster earlier, the shorts will be sweating bullets this weekend.

Bob Palermo
(Fri Jul 18 1997 16:41)
Is the bickering between John and several others in this discussion group ever going to end?


Do you understand who participates in this discussion group and in the gold stock group? Mostly, they are people who want gold and the other precious metals to go up. Much of your analysis and commentary is level headed but your delivery is abrasive. Just make your comments about where you think gold is headed and then leave it alone. Don't respond to the people who snipe at you. Don't worry about when you will get respect. Just give your analysis.

Also, when on the 'Gold + Silver coin and stock discussion group' mentioning CocaCola or 3M as a stock pick seems inappropriate to me. A more appropriate comment may be that you don't think now is the time to buy gold stocks. To me, comparing the merits, potential, and results of FGRA with KO is like comparing apples and oranges. Certainly FGRA can possibly halve or double in a week but KO will most likely take two years to do the same.

The others ( and you know who you are ) ,

On several occasions, John's analysis has been right. Yet you twist it and ridicule it. Give him the respect he deserves and let him know when he is right. Maybe if you quit sniping, he will quit reacting. Also realize gold HAS been a bad investment for quite a while and if someone says so they are right. Further, everyone's favorite stock FGRA has also been a bad investment ( moving from 1.35 to .35 ) so you should admit it. ( Do you really think that John has been driving the price of FGRA down? ) Most other junior precious metals stocks have also done badly over the last year ( such as IC which has moved from 16 to 4 ) . Can FGRA turn around? I don't know. ( And you can't be sure either, John. )

Will junior gold stocks ever rally? I bet some day they do. Will the DJIA slump some day. Almost certainly.

To all,

Lets get back to a civil discussion of the relative merits and problems of investing in the precious metals and precious metals stocks. There will be disagreements and differences of opinion. That's the point.

Bob Palermo

(Fri Jul 18 1997 16:48)
@easy comes - easy goes
Just a few days ago everybody was talking about mighty Bill making $3
billions in a day. Well MSFT went down by 6% today and Bill lost $2.5
billions. Bill, did not we tell you to become a contrarian and put your
money into gold?! You could have kept some of it :- )

John N.
(Fri Jul 18 1997 16:58)
Retiarivs et felix frigidvs svm sed non felix hepaticvs.

Perhaps the real initials of BT were not /B/S, as his detractors would assert, but /G/S!

A good weekend to all except the shorts, may /they/ stew /this/ weekend.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 17:08)
for his wisdom

(Fri Jul 18 1997 17:11)
Ok Johny $335.00 put up or shut up !!

Big Time Tom
(Fri Jul 18 1997 17:14)
Selling low

I repeat: I'm sure glad that John@home didn't sell his gold at $117 or $118 an ounce the other day. Imagine how depressing that would have been going into the weekend!


(Fri Jul 18 1997 17:15)
Within one dollar and six months of silence.. and I'll give you the advantage as Gold is closer to your $325.00 .. nite nite Johny

(Fri Jul 18 1997 17:32)
D.A.: Sorry, but Auroelf is the keeper of the keys to more recondite patterns. I only know that when they are tall and open, that's good and when they are long and filled, that's bad. ...... ( :- ) )

(Fri Jul 18 1997 17:52)
@...GCS about Soros and the CBs
The comment I made about the CBs smarting about Soros currency plays ( Sterling in particular ) was my opion. The comment source about Soros possibly playing the short side was quoted from a Yahoo article that cited a RSA financial paper. Hey, but who cares anymore ? ;- )


(Fri Jul 18 1997 18:03)
@ Valley
Hey Ted .... You've got a sun stroke seagull head'in your way.
Having trouble posting through all the B.S created by Hepcat.
Anyone have a shovel?????

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Fri Jul 18 1997 18:35)
GVC: Thanks for the sugestions - the search engine is almost at the top of our priority list for this site which brings me to my next comment about what IS at the top:

TO MOST: Don't be too upset with hepcat. His posts have been instrumental in inspiring the next discussion group enhancement - The "Squelch" Function.

Once we get started with a password system for adding comments you'll also be able to block out all posts made by any contributors you choose.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 18:38)
Everybody whines about hepcat, just because he tends to be rude, while they themselves make ridiculously vague "predictions" that are essentially useless. Some even want hepcat banned...what a bunch of whiners.

If you cant make a prediction, and then stand behind it to the point of success or failure without continually "adjusting" it, or saying "well, maybe this, or maybe that," then your predictions are garbage. Look back at NJs Fri Jul 18 1997 11:39 post - he makes a comment about Jerry Favors, stating "He is one rare analyst who has not hedged his call with any ifs and butts." Hey, hepcat doesnt hedge his calls with ifs and butts either, so what does that make him? We seem to find the goldbugs answer in Mothers Fri Jul 18 1997 14:06 post, in the words "johny you make me so proud...Loser you were born and a LOSER you are now and a LOSER you will die." While Mothers post certainly contained no trace of information related to trading or investing in precious metals, please notice that nobody commented that Mother had made an "inappropriate post" and should be banned from the site despite the posts tone.

Why is it that nobody on this forum seemed to notice when hepcat dropped a comment on the squared circle? BTW, 90% of those that claim knowledge of the concept havent got a clue, but I suspect hepcat does...

This site is worth a lurk on occasion, but given the escalating crybaby level, I cant see why anyone would want to regularly post if they believe differently than the "gold will soon start its move that will send it all the way to Alpha Centauri" mindset to which goldbugs persistently cling.

Goldbugs seem to intentionally disregard any opposing point of view. Take a look at hepcats Fri Jul 18 1997 10:09 post to Big Time Tom, in which he says "95% of the people who come fresh to this site are already thinking about buying gold, and just need some confirmation that this is a good idea. From being parked on this site for one year, we know that any time the question is posed, Mooney will respond in the affirmative. We have heard for the last six months that the benefit-risk ratio has never been better, yet all one has to do is wait another day or another week and it gets exponentially better." Other points in his post indicate that hepcat feels that this visiting 95% needs to be told that presently, purchasing gold might not be the best thing to do with their hard earned money. Is that so difficult to comprehend?

Yet Big Time Tom, in his Fri Jul 18 1997 12:58 post, replies "I am unable to make much sense of your latest ramblings..." Thus, Hepcat's viewpoint was disregarded, folks...

What a joke. Banning hepcat, or anyone because they know how to push your hot buttons, will make this site a joke, too.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 18:47)
Steve Kaplan reports the "Martian Quote" from July 7. I posted that this Martian went out and bought ABX calls then and am quite happy since they have more than tripled! May we all be called Martians!

(Fri Jul 18 1997 18:50)
one-time-poster: So, what's yer point?

(Fri Jul 18 1997 19:00)
@the scene
Hepcat -- I've heard of it before, but I've never seen any real info on the squared circle concept. Perhaps you can direct me to some information or a site, or present the information here so all might benefit. I'd appreciate it. I always like to ask for a rational basis.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 19:35)
@allthe waytoHersheyBank
Posting problems? So I'll be brief

(Fri Jul 18 1997 19:44)
Bart, i'm not that regular a poster to kitco but think a squelch button
might not be such a good idea. Diversity and the airing of differences
of opinion are important and personally have found hepcat a welcome
antidote to some of the more blinkered views presented.
The kitco site contains it's gems, but there can be a lot of posts to
read through and i was wondering if a thread format like that used at
would be more suitable.
Also think that palladium and platinum will become more prominetly
traded meatls and if lease rates were avaliable for these metals
it would be a big plus to be able to look them up at kitco.
Just a general word of thanks for what really is an exceptional
site, the chart and lease information is just terrific.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 19:48)
one-time-poster -- This site is supposed to be for people interested in the gold market and gold derivatives. It is also supposed to be a site where people of like minded investing can exchange information on what may or may not affect the precious metals markets. It has grown, with no objections, to include some other commodities such as grains and oil. When someone post an investment view, with no plausible theory behind it... Example, gold will go to $250. Why? When the response is, "Because someone knowledgable told me so...", do you see what I mean? On the other hand, if you say that you have information about central bank dishoarding or can present a case for deflation... You are backing your assertion with a reasoned case. This does not mean that you are right or wrong, just a different view point with some form of REASONING behind it. Many people were bullish on Bre-X minerals. Just as many, if not more, were convinced of fraud. There was spirited debate and bruised egos. In the end, damaged trading accounts. Did anyone claim a moral authority to save everyone from themselves? Most didn't, but I can remember one who did. That one is still clinging to that 'higher' authority. That 'one' also invoked a higher ( government ) authority against some who made some stupid and silly assed comments toward the 'annointed one'. The point is, much time has been wasted on this individual. I have been here for a while. I have seen this person in full bloom awhile back. This person was an instigator then, and still is. I have broken a promise not waste anymore space on this person. The moral is simple, invest at your own peril. Choose your information source carefully, and recognize the RISK.

Bond chart later on. Already wasted too damn much time on NOTHING!

Big Time Tom
(Fri Jul 18 1997 19:56)
Ah me!

One-time-poster wrote concerning hepcat and some of the reactions to him:

Take a look at h

Big Time Tom
(Fri Jul 18 1997 19:57)
Ah me!

One-time-poster wrote concerning hepcat and some of the reactions to him:

Take a look at hepcats Fri Jul 18 1997 10:09
post to Big Time Tom, in which he says "95% of the people who come fresh to this site are already thinking about
buying gold, and just need some confirmation that this is a good idea. From being parked on this site for one year, we
know that any time the question is posed, Mooney will respond in the affirmative. We have heard for the last six months
that the benefit-risk ratio has never been better, yet all one has to do is wait another day or another week and it gets
exponentially better." Other points in his post indicate that hepcat feels that this visiting 95% needs to be told that
presently, purchasing gold might not be the best thing to do with their hard earned money. Is that so difficult to

Yet Big Time Tom, in his Fri Jul 18 1997 12:58 post, replies "I am unable to make much sense of your latest
ramblings..." Thus, Hepcat's viewpoint was disregarded, folks...

What a joke. Banning hepcat, or anyone because they know how to push your hot buttons, will make this site a joke,
End of quote.

My reply:

Hi John. How are you doing? I absolutely agree with you that the idea of banning someone from this discussion forum is a bad idea; indeed, I tend to oppose censorship of all kinds. But an important part of freedom is also the freedom to ignore the riffraff, or what one personally regards, however incorrectly, as riffraff. So perhaps Bart's "squelch function" is the perfect solution. I have a sneaking suspicion, however, that many won't use it. When someone makes a spectacle of himself, there is always that temptation to look in on the next round!

As for my ignoring the Hepcat viewpoint, I plead guilty. Virtually every ( unmoderated ) discussion forum has a John Hepcat: Someone who thrives on attention, and makes so many rambling posts that he simply doesn't have the time to craft any of them well. But if you can show me how the above remarks about 95% of "the people who come fresh to this site" was a relevant response to my post, then I'll be the first to apologize.


(Fri Jul 18 1997 20:03)
Someone's friend here ( I won't say his name, Ted ) has a well conceived article bearing on stock market and currency problems.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 20:18)
ROEBEAR: Wow! I have been out all day, drove 600 miles, only caught bits and pieces on the car radio. Everything I own but one went in the right direction. That doesn't happen often.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 20:49)
Earl.... you have mail, ding, ding.

D.A , thanks again. I'm into grains mainly , but I'll trade anything if it moves.


(Fri Jul 18 1997 20:56)
Dow/Gold Ratio is 23.94 tonight

(Fri Jul 18 1997 21:12)
@San Diego
Roebear: I was very close to bailing out of my Gold and Silver stocks before Thursdays bounce. Now I'm equally close to selling my techs. I'm hoping for a 500 point DOW correction. That will keep the equity paper bull going. Kitcoites cannot understand how strong the paper bull is unless they have schizoid personalities like mine. For many it's entertainment pure and simple. We want to ride the bull until its too late. Arch Crawford is calling for a military or trade war next week. Maybe Gold will get another boost. Only Greenspan can break this equity bull before it goes down in flames- and I think he has given up trying. He will quit his post so the bear won't escape on his watch. Perhaps Greenspan's resignation as chairman will accomplish what he gave up trying to do - create a selling panic.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 21:13)
I asked my four year old son Jacob what he thought of gold. He said one word, "good". I asked my five year old daughter Elizabeth what she thought of gold. She said one word, "pretty". Based on this information I'm buying

(Fri Jul 18 1997 21:36)

Nicely done, eh lads? It's good to have a few things go our way for a change.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 21:37)
IS 1929 BEING REPLAYED THIS YEAR? - by Guest Guru Ure
There is an uncannily similarity between the DOW from January 1920 to April 1930 AND TODAYS DOW track record. Avoid reading this study at your own peril - GUEST GURU URE:

(Fri Jul 18 1997 22:06)
Earl, NJ: Thanks for the chart, Earl. What a pleasure to see rising lines on a gold chart again. Let us hope that the failure to regain yesterday's high was, as you pointed out, only squaring for the weekend.
NJ, special thanks for the Candlestick page. It looks helpful. Despite Earl's kind comments, I am a beginner at candlesticks, with only a few photocopied pages to work from. Your URL looks like a good summary.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 22:16)
@yet another opine
GOLD is up, so are most spirits on this forum. Why not be a little tolerant of the "Hepcats" in this group. Maturity, emotional problems, serenity to accept, etc. we all have our little bag of problems, and one often learns from others that are different than we.

Let us learn to listen to many sides, it can only help to broaden our outlook and understanding. Cest la vie, non?

It is the diversity that makes this a great site.

Our mouse gives us the ability to skip when so desired, great little invention.

Most important we should all have a pleasant and enjoyable weekend.
Shabbat Shalom, y'all.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 22:21)
@$600 in 2000

I believe Panda mentioned a possible trade war. Check this out. I would appreciate any comments.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 22:53)
Here's the bond chart. This could be interesting at this juncture. Investors Business Daily had a column musing about deflation. They said that the biggest problem with deflation is that few have any experience in dealing with it. My opinion? If it's in the paper, it's probably wrong! I haven't read my WSJ or IBD in two weeks. It's a,.... 'refreshing' experience!

Now, if the deflation scenario is to take hold, a tremendous amount of wealth must be destroyed rapidly enough to 'shock' people in to not spending money. I don't see this at the moment.

If inflation comes to the fore, we need an inflationary process. The currency markets are providing us with such amusement ( ! ) . A little devaluation here, a little devaluation there, and presto! A trade war via currency devaluations. Don't need Smoot-Hawley, hell we got MBAs! :- ) )

The peculiar thing to all of this, is that currency turmoil will spill over immediately in to the bond market. This will make the stock boys queasy, but not necessarily right away. We could see a divergence between stocks and bonds, I don't really know how this would play out. One thing is for sure, the vast majority of MF players are NOT looking at the currency markets. They don't even know that this will affect their stock/fund holdings! All they know is, "Invest for your retirement." Truely, if this scenario plays out, sad times are coming.

FWIW, the Dow could drop as much as 1200 points and still be in a bull market! Short positions are for the very nimble only, at this juncture. Intel, post split, is at new highs. The market seems almost manic. We could get a good correction here, and just as quickly, zoom to all time new highs for a final blow-off. Some of these daily charts a really spooky in terms of the fantastic percentage gains. The question is, "Is five percent a day normal?!"

If you want real weird, try 25% a year gains compounded for three years. Some people think this a normal rate of return. There is a biblical injunction about the road to Hell being broad and easy to follow, and the road to Heaven, narrow and winding. It describes Wall Street very well. It's easy to plunk your money in. But getting your money out when everyone else wants theirs to?

(Fri Jul 18 1997 22:55)
Auric: Sounds to me like the Europeans are taking their que from Helms-Burton. That sort of thing can go both ways.

Bill Buckler
(Fri Jul 18 1997 23:08)
What a time to be cut off the net! My ISP just got its act back together so I can post weekend charts, commentary etc. Panda ( Jul 18 22:53 ) The uptick in long bond rates on Friday ( 6.48% to 6.53% ) is being "blamed" on a 17% blowout in the U.S. trade deficit for June and on record highs in consumer confidence.

Long bonds getting below 6.50% recently is a direct result of the currency turmoil in Asia. The Dollar has been up on a combination of "safe haven" buying and foreign eagerness to get on board the U.S. stock market. The 130 point Friday dump on the Dow is no big deal proportionally, but it is a big deal given the fact that the Dow just topped a big psychological number when it broke through 8000. The last time the Dow broke through such a level ( 7000 ) , we had the 10% correction and the Fed raised rates right in the middle of it.

I've had a lot of e-mail regarding the double bottom on both A$ and US$ gold charts at my For now, all that I know for sure is that the $US 11 rise over the past two days was as unexpected as was the dive to $US 315 two weeks ago. It will get interesting if and when that dive is completely recovered, as it will be if Gold gets to $US 332.70. That's where the resistance will be found. In fact, Gold got to $US 331.90 intra-day on Friday, so it is pretty well already there.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 23:22)
As we all ponder what will cause the present stock market to go down and gold to go up. Could it be the present Senate hearing going on now. Fox Network got high ratings for showing the hearing live and some of the mainstream media groups are starting to pay attention?

(Fri Jul 18 1997 23:28)
RJ..... Can't wait for Bart's Squelch button
Execute a contract on "Hepcat"
payment in Gold will be made to your Swiss account
Good Hunting!

(Fri Jul 18 1997 23:39)
Tanami - I'm sure you realize how sensitive and precious many of the viewers here are. They hunger and thirst for knowledge - just so long as it agrees with their narrow views. Last summer there was a Wolf running loose here attacking the bulls - seems that even Bart got bit, and there has been one filter after another in an attempt to moderate the overly zealous opposing view. Maybe it's a good thing to protect the feelings of such thin skinned individuals - I really don't know - but it just seems to me that the world is a better place when the whiners and cry babies are paid less attention to and the voices of the Mavericks and Outcasts are allowed to ring out!!!! Sometimes I'm glad I'm old - maybe I won't be here to witness the final outcome of what happens when society worries more about being a kinder and gentler place than being a stong and honest place!!!!

George Cole
(Fri Jul 18 1997 23:48)

We are on the same wavelength. I see bullion going anywhere from $335 to $350 on this rally. But the reaction from this rally will be the key as to to whether this bear has truly ended.

(Fri Jul 18 1997 23:50)
Mac: So, what's yer point?

(Fri Jul 18 1997 23:59)
Earl, Sorry I went over your head. Things are hard to undrstand when we go out of our way trying to be kinder a gentler. I'm working on some graphics to post. I'm sure pictures will help you more. ZZZZOOOOOOMMMM!!!!