Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Sat Jul 19 1997 00:05)
Normency @1628: Liked the link ; particularly :"if you had enough money
one could go long gold and sell to the shorts on the way up." Best
reading in many a day!!! |:-}}} )

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Sat Jul 19 1997 00:35)
UPLOAD your files now in two easy steps ( for Netscape users ) . You can add documents, pictures, sound, or movies to your comments without having to learn to use FTP software! Details at ( end of advertisment )

kinder and gentler
(Sat Jul 19 1997 00:37)
hurry along now, yaahear
MAC: OH, please do not delay your journey on our account. You-ahl hurry along now, heear!

(Sat Jul 19 1997 00:41)
Mac: So, what is your point? No need to resort to pictures. Comic books don't scan well. Words will do nicely if you use them to present fully formed thoughts in complete sentences.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 01:02)
@the scene
Mac -- In all that time, then and since, have you even seen even one rational/explanation from these bears for gold to be continuing down to such and such? I've seen many a rational for it to go up, and many or most of them remain true today. I have been asking for months upon months for their rational, with none forthcoming! I will simply say put up or shut up!

(Sat Jul 19 1997 01:09)
There's a Limit

How long can Intel continue to cut it's prices and remain at it's rarified altitude?,4,12513,00.html
Or is this competiton, or another indicator of possible deflation in the pipeline?

(Sat Jul 19 1997 01:10)
@the scene
Mac -- I have one correction to my last post. That is, at this point, I couldn't care less for your explanations! Frankly, I don't anymore give a damn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

(Sat Jul 19 1997 01:11)

BillD : You asked me to explain the comment "silver remains the commodity from hell". This is how Martin Armstrong describes silver. He thinks silver will go to $3.50 before it goes to $6.00 and in fact believes that silver must take out its double bottom at 3.50 ( from 1991 and 1993 ) before a real bull market can develop.

GFD : Your 18/7 15:47 post touched on what I believe is the single most important element in today's financial markets - currency instability. Continued currency instability will probably be the catalyst which brings down the US stock and bond markets and triggers the next gold bull market.

ALL : I am not too excited about the current move in the gold price and will not get excited until gold makes a solid break through $400. However, I am now convinced that Australian gold stocks bottomed on July 8. The only problem I have with this conviction on gold stocks is that I made a substantial purchase of gold company shares and call options on July 8, and I have never bought anything at the absolute bottom before. Perhaps this is the first time.

Regards, Milhouse

(Sat Jul 19 1997 01:25)
@the scene
Millhouse -- If yesterdays and todays performance can be any kind of indicator of silver, I would most certainly agree! Totally wimpy! If it won't break North, then it WILL break South! All the better to purchase it. But I still do not like gold and silver travelling in different directions. Typically means that one or the other will not travel far.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 01:34)
"the devil made them do it"

The rational that the metal bears muster is in the
manipulations of the Euro/US stock markets, the US bond
market and the constant negative press versus gold; all
of which have keept the US dollar looking comfy.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 01:41)

I still would like to know RJ's opinion on what the high in gold will be between now and the year 2000.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 01:46)
@ THE scene
You all have a profitable week! Just watch out for failure of penetration of resistance areas and penetration of support/previous resistance areas! Also watch the crude and grains next week. Things ARE on the move but they have areas to retest and sometimes break. I think Monday late or Tuesday early will be a day of reversal in much that we are looking at. In any case, pay attention to details. For whatever it's worth, I'll be back next Sunday. Enjoy!

Senator Blutarsky
(Sat Jul 19 1997 01:52)

Welcome back, Ted. No more road trips! :- ) ! Eldorado: This latest action in gold sure beats the hell out of 50 cent trading ranges! I think them bears is sweating in their shorts this weekend!

(Sat Jul 19 1997 02:15)
@the great equalizer-------
"for every action, there is a equal and opposite reaction."

the pendulum will not be denied

----------chaos and flux,
they have arrived........

ted----are you in the dinghy, or just dingy?????

(Sat Jul 19 1997 02:33)
To listen to the popular media one might have thought that gold
had declined from $400 to $100.What we've actually seen, while not
exactly having been fun ,is an approximately 25% decline in the price.
I'm not sure about the rest of you but I've experienced this in stocks
I've owned and most times come out O.K. if I've done my homework.Bottoms
,of course, are hard to pick but,I think, given the large speculater
short positions and the popular media this may be it.Forgive the guess.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 02:37)

i'll jump on that one....

$800.00 before the new millenium. based on
mob psychology due to financial and weather
related chaos. mix-in some religous fanatics,
and the new world order; the balkans, middle
east, china, korea, africa ( famine ) , and one
or two terrorist groups with nukes, el nino,
comet fly-by, prophecy from the bible,
and what do you have???

you have a paradigm shift in mob psychology from
a sensible orderly world[sic], to one where chaos
is expected, and around every corner. robert heinlein
wrote about mob psychology in the future......we will
live his dream, as we live isaac asimovs' vision for
the future. these men were great writers, but more than
that, they were giants and futurists with huge shoulders.

welcome to the party ----ride, ride, ride, ( jo jo gunne )

cherokee!; ) dot-ssm-fat --imm

(Sat Jul 19 1997 02:45)
Having traded gold stocks and funds extensively for years, I recommend the use of noload funds to allow easier sleep at night for those trying to decide how to benefit from this rally, and any future move. The two top gold funds for last week were from Fidelity, often presented at no cost by Schippi at

Further gold fund comparisons are available at

(Sat Jul 19 1997 02:49)

Cherokee--Friendly wager--I say gold at $600 by Decemer 31, 1999. You say $800. Whoever is closest buys the first round at the Kitco Bash! We on?

Steve - Perth
(Sat Jul 19 1997 02:54)
BART: I beg you NOT to adopt the Thread suggestion for this site. What makes it easy to read is not having to use that system. The downside is that you have to scroll through, but not as far as the thread system. The squelch idea seems good, but what if the annoying post person simply changes their ID code by just one alpha/numeric? Back to where you started. Best to simply ignore the post. Unfortunately there are some very bored people out there. They should "go back to work", & stop bragging about "retirement", whatever that means.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 02:55)
@Auric in hoosierland
Auric: I don't know about the year 2000, but I have $545 as my target price by this time next year.

Steve - Perth
(Sat Jul 19 1997 03:01)
ROEBEAR: Could you please cut & paste the currency/stock market article in full ( 18/7/97 20:03 ) here at Kitco. I can't seem to link into that site. Locked out for some reason. Thanks, Steve

(Sat Jul 19 1997 03:04)

GVC--$545 would assure a Kitco Bash! You must buy the first round if the high for this move in gold is Five-Four-Five!

(Sat Jul 19 1997 03:12)
Donald, so my news service was on the road!: ) ) What are all those +'s and black figures on the portfolio?! Was knocked "off the air" by T-storm but we needed rain, just went under drought restrictions here in Pennsylvania. Will be deep in slavery into next week, PM's will have to keep going to emancipate me!

Steve - Perth
(Sat Jul 19 1997 03:20)
PANDA: I think you are being too hard on yourself with your excellent TYX chart. Considering the wilder gyrations in the past few years, I don't think it matter very much being out a little bit. My guess is that Panda is probably on the money. Possibly a large breakdown on the Dow, soon, then a further continuation of the Bull. I know I want to get my clients back in for a further spin when I see better value buying. I'm not sure that a medium sized correction will burn these share buying critters off for a few more years yet. Believe it or not. Hence the gold price may rise for a while, but may still drop through the floor yet. As Bill Buckler says, a definite bottom is NOT in yet.
1. What is behind the Russian Banks trading of Gold?
2. How big are the large trading block "wars" going to get?
3. How long are the Muslim states in the Middle East going to sit on their hands?
4. Is there any anti meltdown program available from the IMF & Bank of International Settlements to handle an expanded currency collapse?
5. Do the major players WANT us to be viewing gold as a total irrelevence so that we will adopt new regional trading block currencies.
Something is really fishy IMHO.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 03:37)
kolorado, a 500 point correction? I agree the market is strong but it is also showing its age and fragility. There are a couple oil stocks I would like to ride like I did last year but the crosshairs won't stay on'em, they keep moving! Besides oil and gold/silver stocks I'm chicken for now. Since I pulled out DOW 7600 I'll be missing out if it goes to 10K, but I might even throw in some S&P puts when the charts and the chicken bones look right! I do know what you are saying, it is allurring, but be careful, keep your eye on the charts! It's "Jack be nimble"time coming up.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 03:47)
Steve-Perth I would love to post that article from The Skeptical Investor here, but I fear I would anger some kitcoites, and perhaps Bart, as it is five pages long. I was just there it is up and running and there is no registration or password. Vronsky should add this one to his retinue. What to do, here is the URL again and if it doesn't work for you let me know how I can get it to ya. Is that your real email address?

(Sat Jul 19 1997 03:58)
Steve, if that's your correct email you should have it. Enjoy! It's 4AM here and I'm off to slavery. Poor Richard would be proud of me!

Steve - Perth
(Sat Jul 19 1997 04:01)
ROEBEAR: Thanks for the reply. I need to be patient. The URL finally came through after about 3 minutes wait! EXCELLENT article, as per last months one. Yes, my email address IS correct. I think I am one of the few that actually do include my correct email address on this site. If I did not email you back some time ago, I may have been flat out in end of year work or something.

Steve - Perth
(Sat Jul 19 1997 04:04)
DONALD: This is for you.
IMF offers Phillipines $1.1 BILLION after currency crash

(Sat Jul 19 1997 04:05)
Bart, No threads, please. Avid just went to a scroll format like this one but it is not as nice as Barts! Bart you are the best. I must be ( like EB ) AWAY! NTI.

Steve - Perth
(Sat Jul 19 1997 04:06)
Vanguard chief says equity markets too SPECULATIVE.
Have you ever wondered how weird it is that there are about 7000 mutual funds in the US, and only about 3500 stocks? It would be better just to buy about 200 stocks and be done with it. ( At lower PE's of course )

Steve - Perth
(Sat Jul 19 1997 04:11)
Yeah, I DETEST threads. Apologies to all threads fans.
I must away. My miniture Dachshund needs a walk in the nice sunshine. Been 0 to 1 degrees celcius lately at night, so need to get some nice sun while we can ( 20 degrees today ) . Fantastic weather, as usual. No rain thought, which is a bit of a worry for farmers in our wheatbelt. El Nino is hitting here in Australia, I am afraid to say. The Eastern States seem to get hit worse than Western Australia. They had a big drought during the depression in the 30's ( dust storms etc ) , I seem to recall from reading history.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 04:11)
Steve-Perth, Sorry, guess we are both impatient! And I'm gonna be late!

(Sat Jul 19 1997 05:04)
Yahoo Reuters Oil article
mentions gold also and Merrill as usual ( Bill O'Neil ) plays down recent gold action saying "natural turn...not a major trend change".

(Sat Jul 19 1997 05:12)
Regarding your 3:20

I too think that the scenario that Panda lays out is absolutely correct.
The long bond chart is ,I think,very revealing.A break to higher levels
repesents greater risk evident in the lending of money and in the definition of value.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 05:15)
Rhyme: Will second your comments on Steve-Perth's 03:20. The questions asked are right on. I also think the Chinese may surprise us and move on Taiwan one of these days, altho some say they do not have the capacity.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 05:26)
Re:Your 5:23 Posting
I'm wondering whether the world can truly appreciate the potential
impact of the rise of mainland China's power,especially regionly,that
is in the "far east".The official U.S. policy is to pretend that there's
some line in the sand around Taiwan ...

(Sat Jul 19 1997 05:37)
Rhyme: Agree, the build up in Chinese military is fearful and as for our present administration I wonder if we would really fight to save Taiwan. They are more interested in "human rights" interventions.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 05:38)

Re: Taiwan. Look, the US Navy is vastly superior to China's Navy. China is just as outmatched in air warfare capability. China can only get to Taiwan via Sea and Air. China ain't gonna get Taiwan!

(Sat Jul 19 1997 05:41)
Mr. Chairman: ;= ) Hope you are right but then Neville said Peace in Our Time too as I recall and then what happened? I agree our Navy and Air Power are superior to China now but we are losing ground!

(Sat Jul 19 1997 05:45)
I hear that Money Magazine, next Monday edition, has a cover that shouts, "SELL STOCKS NOW".

(Sat Jul 19 1997 05:57)

Goldbug23: The US is actually getting better and cheaper than China, with regard to military strength. If China tries to spend the resources required for a World Class military, they will bankrupt themselves, just like the Soviets

(Sat Jul 19 1997 06:17)
GOOD MORNIN ALL! Roebear ( 20:03 ) Thanks fer pluggin me friend's site! Senator Blutarsky: Thanks fer the welcome back! Cherokee ( 2:15 ) Just DINGY!
MGraves:It's great to be back in Cape Breton,Kitco,and CANADA...Told ya we weren't goin nowhere...Am off ta read yer letter....

(Sat Jul 19 1997 06:35)
@....MSFT drop on good news is really good news
The good news on MSFT net and propsects forward received a 6% selloff. It may be early yet but this paper Bull may be turning. WINTEL's domination will be tested when Apple introduces Rhapsody os in 1998 on Power PC CPUs AND INTEL boxes. The times are changing and what goes up hard and fast is a prime candidate for early exhaustion --- as many men know ;- ) ...but that's another story.

Top of the Morn'

(Sat Jul 19 1997 06:36)
STEVE-PERTH: Thanks. Ms. Marcos will be pleased to learn that her next pension check won't bounce. The Philippines have endured a lot during the past hundred years, most of it not of their own doing, they deserve a break.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 07:03)
been there, done that

FWIW: Glad not to be long in stocks now. There is an unmistakable sense of dread in the leveraged S+P longs this weekend.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 07:15)
they're confused
Article in todays Australian, Age, "Speculation about the identity of the buyers ranged from jewellery manufacturers re-entering the US markets to the possibility that a big gold producer had unwound its forward contracts and was buying gold.
The "huge" short positions still existing, augurs well for this rally. As apparently from all reports, the bears, still continued on short selling during the last couple of days rise ( RJ, posted he was going to at $322 and $324 if I'm not erring ) .
...stubborness doesn't pay...the trend is changing...RJ let the "new" trend be your friend

George Cole
(Sat Jul 19 1997 07:35)
Steve: Vanguard recently published a pamphlet on the history of bear markets. They obviously are moving to warn investors that stormy seas lie ahead.

Roebear; Thanks for the SKEPTICAL INVESTOR! Kind of reinforces my own thinking,

Has the stock market peaked? Look for the Dow to drop another 100 points or so and then rally. If that rally does not carry to new highs, the game is over.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 07:38)
...they seem to be a little "tardy" today...uuhhhmmmm!

(Sat Jul 19 1997 07:45)

nomercy-Just read that article. In addition to your quote, it also said a "big buyer in New York" was buying big. I bet that guy who was thinking of selling his gold is feeling better now.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 07:53)
Roebear: The SKEPTICAL INVESTOR made me think. There are now trillions
in the stock market instead of billions. As investors see the DOW drop
and precious metals rise, who's to say that a shift won't drive up the
metals higher than ever seen before. Wasn't HM at $80 in 1929 and then
at $495 during the Great Depression?

(Sat Jul 19 1997 08:15)
"bears spooked by speed of price rise"

George Cole
(Sat Jul 19 1997 08:20)
the CBs
Lelamd; A shift of investor sentiment in favor of gold is the Fed's worst nightmare. All their manipulations are aimed at heading such a shift off at the pass. They are especially concerned because a new gold bull would seriously challenge the dollar's role as the international reserve currency of choice. And then the U.S. could no longer run huge trade deficits year in and year out.

But the free market is more powerful than the Fed.. When this paper bull ends ( as appears to be happening now ) a huge rise in gold and gold shares will be just a matter of time no matter what the CBs do or don't do. . The CBs and their allies have won a lot of battles and may win a few more, but they will lose the war.

Joseph Granville
(Sat Jul 19 1997 08:21)
@This is a MEGA Market
I am now on record that the DOW could reach 9000 this year. Further out, my work tells me that we are coming into range of such super rally objectives of 12,000-14,000 by the start of the new millennium. I see the long bond yield heading back under 6%.

I have advanced the idea that that we have a new people's market. The most revolutionary concept about that market is now, for the first time, we can see the public as The Smart Money and the Professional Element as the dumb money, a reversal in thinking of mammoth implications.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 08:34)
Stephen Roach
In today's commentary by Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley, claims that UK inflation would be 4% rather than the current stated 2.7% if it wasn't for the 20% sterling appreciation. He goes on to say,
"Like it or not, the traditional macro rules are working just fine. Just as the combination of rapid growth and falling unemployment is leading to the classic results of rising labor costs and accelerating inflation
in the UK, we believe that the US economy will be next to follow suit. With all due respect to the "new" globalization, I continue to believe that inflation is largely homegrown.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 08:34)
A button that allows the blocking of individual posts isn't going to help Vronsky's advertising. Anyone know if the post could have been from old Joe. Is he predicting a MegaMarket elsewhere?

(Sat Jul 19 1997 08:43)
Joe Granville

Hi Mr. Granville. Kitco would like your thoughts on gold. Thank you.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 09:00)
George Cole: I think that I read your comments correctly. The Feds
can paper over the cracks in the wall, but eventually the paper will
crack. Thanks again for your comments. This site cannot ever lose your
help on questions!!!!!

(Sat Jul 19 1997 09:08)
Joe Granville: Hard to believe in the new paradigm which you have adopted. These are good times to be sure, but I see little evidence of a basic change in human nature either on a personal level or otherwise which would cause business/investment cycles to go away and replaced by steady progress. Nor do I see people collecting bond certificates from 5000 years ago ( or 500 or 50 ) instead of gold bars and coins. We are in a special case market where all the "adults" at the central banks have been conned into buying US Treasuries. Marketing is a great science, but it does not repeal the laws of nature or the laws of markets...:- ) BTW, did you convert Mike Bronzino yet...:- ) ) ) ) ) ) ///Also is OBV and all that stuff out the window under the New Paradigm? Still, you must feel a little like Tony Bennett, being in the public eye again and being quoted everywhere as of old. Good to hear from you and hope all is well........

(Sat Jul 19 1997 09:09)
Barron's Mailbag, page 58, has a detailed and very bullish response to the Michael Santoli bearish story of last week. The letter is written by Richard Pomboy.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 09:11)
Thanks Donald. Off to read Pomboy. His gold funds must have been sucked dry.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 09:18)
p ]eie0itqet\e]qe\qeit\q
Hello Joe:

Don Wollanchuck is looking for Dow 20,000 after the millenium to followed by Prectors supercycle crash. He currently believes we may now have entered a correction to his predicted 4 yr cycle low ( 1990,1994,1998 ) . He also says that we may be at the begining of a new gold bull mrkt which will carry the metals and metal stocks to undrempt of levels;far byond the 1980 highs.

Where do you disagree with this and why?


kdnfgkj[on jto'qj

Bob M
(Sat Jul 19 1997 09:23)
Leland- The HM story during the depression is one of the lamest excuses of how mining stocks went up during the Great Depression. Everyone forgets , or doesnt like to remember, that while all other prices were declining, the price of gold was fixed by Roosevelt at approximately $20 perounce, so therefore HM had not to worry about the price of their product declining, as everyone else did. It was a complete wfix and huge windfall to the mining companies at that time. I wouldnt bet on that happening again.

Bob M
(Sat Jul 19 1997 09:28)
Greenspan still has one nuke left in his arsenal against the war on gold,a weapon of mass destruction..sell off a large portion of the US gold holdings..can this already be taking place? Food for thought. If it does, the bear market in gold will be over

Steve - Perth
(Sat Jul 19 1997 09:30)
GREENSPAN IS SNOOKERED: During my walk today our dog "Lucy" the Wonder Daschund, I was imagining what I would do if I was Alan Greenspan. ( apart from booking my retirement home with my new wife ) . I was also pretending I was acting for the good of the USA, not just for the big money people.

Well, I would think about raising interest rates, to blow the top off Wall Street, bringing it down to more realistic PE's to start with. But then I realised that if I did, then I would get a flood of more Japanese & other foreign money into the 30 year Treasuries. This would only push down the domestic inflation rate, & just continuing the climb of the US stock market. I can't drop it, I can't raise it, & my words of warning have been virtually trampled over & forgotten by the public. Lost against a tidal wave of unbelievably uneducated money saving speculators that haven't got a clue about how bad "buying & holding" is going to be for them when this thing falls over. I'm stuffed. Soros is on my back, stuffing up our currency deals & making a killing on the gold market. Maybe I should just roll over, like my banking friends keep going on about, & start some planning for when ALL the currencies fall over. No point wasting time on something that I can't stop. My banking colleagues been wanting to start some new regional block currencies for ages now, as they know that we have to let a heap of air out of the fiat money. Well, if it has to be, so be it. As if that isn't enough, the damned Europeans seem like they want to fight us over our aircraft mergers. Well, let them. Damn them, why don't they all just go away, & leave this old man alone in peace.

AFTER READING THE RECENT FOUR PAGE SPREAD on Alan Greenspan in the recent US Business Week, I am wondering what has inspired them to run this very revealing media spin on him. "we are in control, do not worry?". "Alan is the man for the hour?". After reading the article, it seems that he is "softening" from his previous positions years ago. When we look back on the gigantic mess that will inevitably arise in the coming years, will it be a result of Alan Greenspan going senile as the root cause of the coming depression?? Interesting thoughts.....

Bob M
(Sat Jul 19 1997 09:38)
Steve-Perth- interesting take, but it is really true, the euphoria of the markets has taken over the wheel and is now driving the entire economy,but I agree its heading for a cliff and everyone in the bus is just "partying". I believe that Greenspan has painted himself into a corner and his hands are now tied. His list of options has narrowed down to nothing, and it is totally running wild on its own. Isnt it hard to believe his irrational exuberance speech a 1000 Dow points ago, and now you dont hear a peep from him. There is going to be a rude awakening here very soon.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 09:42)
"Greenspan & Company haven't a clue about why the economy is acting the way it is" writes John Tomkins

Lan Man
(Sat Jul 19 1997 09:43)
@As the Worm Turns
Bob@ - Apple is a day late and a dollar short. Wintel IS the corporate standard and will remain that way. Apple had the chance to take the os market several years back, but were too greedy. They have paid and will continue to pay for that. Rhapsody os in 1998? Not a chance. They have become EVEN worse than MSFT in delaying major upgrades. NT 4.0 is the standard purchase for corp. america right now. Although I personally think that BGates is a jerk and a pervert, the trend is MSFT software. Except for a few die-hard mac owners and graphics designers, Apple is basically history.

( Shields are at 100%, but you can try anyway )

Steve - Perth
(Sat Jul 19 1997 09:52)
Korean exporters may be heading for serious trouble.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 09:54)
Bob M: With all the "distortions" we need to hear more "realities".
Your postings make good sense. Let's hear more from you. Thanks.

Steve - Perth
(Sat Jul 19 1997 10:00)
LAN MAN: No need for shields from me. I agree entirely re: Gates etc. Never liked Apple, but MSFT software keeps falling over on me. It is useless stuff. If Bill Gates wants to win me, he had better spend a few billion on developing some crash less software. A total pain.

Steve - Perth
(Sat Jul 19 1997 10:04)
BOB M: I genuinely feel sorry for Greenspan. If he was smart, he should take his redundancy payment now, & give speeches about what his successor should be doing. Just like Bernie Fraser, our ex Reserve Bank Governor is doing at dinners, directed at the new Governor, Ian MacFarlane. Desperate times lead to desperate measures. BTW, Bob, have been very impressed with your posts over the past months. Took me a while to come around in the beginning, though.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 10:09)
I wonder, will we see any surprise resignations from, say, Treasury or the Fed? If something like that happens.... Just a silly thought.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 10:10)

Re: 09:38 and 09:42 : Excellent article nomercy. BobM, agree with you. All this, and a hint of a trade war in the air!

(Sat Jul 19 1997 10:11)
"Full faith and credit....", a phrase to remember. :- )


(Sat Jul 19 1997 10:13)
nomercy: thanx for the reference to the Tomkins piece which produced this pearl:"Economists at UCLA have decided that a sharp stock market drop of about 36% would be just great for the economy. It would push interest rates down, boost bond prices, and give pension fund managers the opportunity to buy stocks with better yields. "A decent collapse in the stock market would be nice right now," the study said. "We need a break for a change.""

Downward and onward in La la Land..........

Bob M
(Sat Jul 19 1997 10:18)
The other day when CNBC had their special 8000 show, it is amazing to watch and listen to the people who are betting their entire futures on this game. Granted, they have made a tremendous amount of money in the last three years, but the real question is will they be smart enough to get out, if they can. I feel that the big boys are hoping for a massive influx of foreign capital to come in over the next few years to prop it up, and it may just happen. But at some point, with prices at unheard of levels, common sense has to set in. To sell something, you have to find a buyer. The higher it goes, the fewer buyers there will be, of course, this has not been true to this point, but it must happen eventually. I still believe that the Wall Street boys will see how terribly battered the gold sector is ( stocks ) and begin to recomend this area if for no other reason, because it by fgar is the most undervalued sector today.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 10:29)
STEVE-PERTH... "crashless software" is an oxymoron : )

Steve - Perth
(Sat Jul 19 1997 10:31)
New Zealand Gold Mining News - Macraes expansion goes on hold
Macraes Mining is deferring the $120 million
expansion of its Macraes Flat mine in eastern Otago until
the gold price recovers.

Expansion to 9m tonnes of ore processing annually at
current prices of about $US320 an ounce would use up
the company's forward selling cover within three years,
whereas cover at the existing 3m tonnes a year would last
six to seven years, said the managing director, Patrick O'Connor.

This resulted from the sudden slump in an already
weakening gold price this month after Australia's Reserve
Bank announced it had sold two-thirds of its gold reserves.

Macraes has not yet gained resource consents for its
application for the expansion. The Otago Regional
Council and the Waitaki District Council have said
decisions would not be made before July 29.

Mr O'Connor said he was clarifying the company's
situation now because the market appeared to be
factoring the expansion project into the Macraes share
price, which had fallen to 162c on Wednesday from
210c at the start of July and 331c at the start of the year.
The shares rose 3c to 165 yesterday in response to the
expansion being deferred.

Macraes was committed to the expansion and the
consents process, but to increase the hedging programme
at current prices was uneconomic, he said.

"This is a dramatic period for gold and it is time to be
financially conservative."

Mr O'Connor said Macraes was not expecting the gold
price downturn to last three years.

"Most people say there will be dramatic changes within a
year. If the price stays low, a lot of mines will close and
production will contract."

He believed a lot of Australian companies with multi-mine
operations would close their higher cost mines and focus
their hedging programmes on their better mines.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 10:33)
Clinton's Fed Appointees Now in Majority
It's relatively old news but I haven't seen it posted here before:

Gramlich, Ferguson Named to Fed

Thursday, July 10, 1997; 3:41 p.m. EDT

WARSAW, Poland ( AP ) -- President Clinton named Edward
M. Gramlich, an economics professor at Michigan University,
and Roger W. Ferguson Jr.,a securities and banking lawyer, to
the Federal Reserve Board today.

The board, headed by Alan Greenspan, formulates monetary
policy and sets major interest rates.

Gramlich is a former acting director of the Congressional
Budget Office and worked at the Federal Reserve.

Ferguson, a partner and director of research and information
systems at McKinsey & Co. in New York, holds three
degrees from Harvard University.

Their nominations had been expected.

Their confirmation would bring the seven-member Fed board
back up to full strength. Along with Greenspan, they would join
GOP-appointed holdovers Edward Kelley and Susan Phillips
and two other Clinton appointees, Vice Chairwoman Alice
Rivlin and Laurence Meyer.

Ferguson, 45, would become the third black member to serve
on the board and the first since the 1986 resignation of a Jimmy
Carter appointee, Emmett J. Rice.

Most recently, Gramlich, 58, served as chairman of a
13-member advisory commission on Social Security. Although
the commission's members couldn't agree, Gramlich advocated
raising payroll taxes and establishing individual investment
accounts owned by workers but managed by the government.

Neither nominee has a particular background in monetary
policy, but colleagues have said in interviews they expected
they would fit in with the moderate, mainstream views of the
other board members.

Steve - Perth
(Sat Jul 19 1997 10:36)
JDM: Yes, at the moment. Especially from Microsoft. I mean crash LESS, not "no-crash" software.

Steve - Perth
(Sat Jul 19 1997 10:41)
"Gramlich advocated ... establishing individual investment
accounts owned by workers but managed by the government". I saw this a while back. Obviously Gramlich wants to create some more work for the Govt. They've stuffed up social security, & now they want to spread the disease. But then, maybe in light of the Dow mania, he has a point? But din't they want to put the Social Security funds into the stock market??

(Sat Jul 19 1997 10:53)
In The Report on Business section of today's Globe and Mail ( Toronto ) the entire back page is devoted to GOLD...Headlines: "Is It Time To Play Gold?" with a great cartoon depicting someone walking buy a store-front displaying Gold bulllion and signs saying:Sale,Reduced to clear,nio reasonable offer refued and 2 for 1 Buy now!...also statistical tables showing the effect of a ten dollar increase in the price of gold on all the major gold companies....Nem's eps would jump the most and BMG'S the least...also another table giving hedging positions ( for second half of 97 ) :ABX=100%,BMG=13%,ECO=40%,HM=7%,NEM=22%,and PDG=26%....and for PANDA AEM=0%....also chart giving production costs per oz:ABX=189,BMG=197,ECO=267,HM=245,NEM=210,and PDG=225....and for PANDA, AEM=210....Royal Oak @325 has the highest production costs..

(Sat Jul 19 1997 11:05)
"The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy"
Dr. Geoffrey P.Miller, Professor of Law and Director, Center for Study of Central Banks, New York University Law School - presents erudite and comprehensive study. SEE Editorials:

(Sat Jul 19 1997 11:10)
LAN MAN: I am using WindowsNT 3.51. I have had it for about 2 years, rarely get a crash. The few crashes I have had have been just at boot time. Windows 3.1 was always a problem for me. What bothers me is I can't upgrade to 5.0. Microsoft wants the full price. If I upgrade to 4.0, then they will let me upgrade to 5.0. That stinks. I am staying with the 3.51. They heard the news yesterday and the stock plummeted. Serves them right.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 11:13)
Time of the Season - The Zombies after rising from their comatose state come and feed on the unprepared such are the Laws of the Universe. The Golden triangle of greed and suspicion haunts the pages of Kitco.Bull and Bear collide like death thundering across the pain of selfish greed.Oh Holy calf inspiring my id of existence I pray that Gold will save the World.If not, oh swine ruler of deceit, give us sixpence and save us from ourselves, as we turn into the ashes of celestial time. Yes freedom of speech must always endure,even to the savours that wish to protect us from ourselves.Happy Trails Bart.

Steve - Perth
(Sat Jul 19 1997 11:15)
Brazil stock market plunges 4.66% on renewed jitters

Steve - Perth
(Sat Jul 19 1997 11:24)
Sir James Goldsmith dies of cancer in Spain - age 64. Main person to oppose the EMU direction for the UK. ( so we are led to believe ) . Ironic news item, just following Poorboys last post. How the mighty have fallen....and took no earthly thing with him.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 11:43)
Tort: Where the hell are ya??? and where's our damn joke??

(Sat Jul 19 1997 11:45)
RBA scolded
Gold News Flash by Robert Pringle, Head, Public Policy Centre, World Gold Council, July 18, 1997

(Sat Jul 19 1997 11:49)
Monday should tell us a few things about Gold and the stock market....
Good evening JIN....I've been busy and still owe you one....

(Sat Jul 19 1997 12:06)
IS 1929 BEING REPLAYED THIS YEAR? - by Guest Guru Ure
There is an uncannily similarity between the DOW from January 1920 to April 1930 AND TODAYS DOW track record. Avoid reading this study at your own peril - GUEST GURU URE:

(Sat Jul 19 1997 12:26)
Ted,here's one for you.

Did you hear about the oooomedoodle bird?

It's got no legs.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 12:37)
Terry: To tell ya the truth I ain't never heard of any such bird....But I'll keep an eye out fer em...Maybe they don't like Cape Breton...

(Sat Jul 19 1997 12:52)
Onother little news item for the old eyeballs

(Sat Jul 19 1997 12:53)
Venerable market analyst provides current trading insights: ...we top in the next two weeks. Not the top, a top. SEE INGER LETTER FORECAST - July 17, 1997 Report:

(Sat Jul 19 1997 12:58)
Roebear already plugged it ....but my good friend Max has somethin worth sayin...

(Sat Jul 19 1997 13:04)
The headphones are strapped on...The Doors are blarin...and it's time for LIFT-OFF....Come on baby lite my fire.....

(Sat Jul 19 1997 13:28)
to Chairman on China Taiwan and US
Chairman at 5:38: your view that the US military power is vastly
superior to China is very simplistic and I think the picture is much
more complex. Lets paint a scenario ( with a strong disclaimer that this
is just a scenario which may never play, but  ) Lets assume that China
wants to increase its position as a superpower in the Far East ( and
worldwide. )

One way to do it is to bring a significant disruption to financial
markets and economies of other countries in that region and the US.
Lets assume that China made a move toward Taiwan and the US stepped in
to defend Taiwan. Despite the US military superiority this venture and
the logistics of it would be so expensive that it would have a
significant impact on the US financial market, inflation, government
economic policies, etc. This could be one of the triggers for a stock
market crash followed by the world wide instability. What is this move
( to take over Taiwan ) is just a cover for other bigger goals? So what if
China lost in this venture? The damage to China would be relatively less
than the damage to the US and other countries and the end result would
be Chinas gain.

OTOH, I think that after the US policy maker would go through all
numbers and implications , the US intervention after all may not realize.
Disruption and instability in the region would still occur with China
increasing its position and potentially getting Taiwan back. This would
be a win - win situation for China.

China is known as a skillful, behind the scene manipulator, ( much better
than the US ) who will ruthlessly follow through their goal no matter how
long it will take. I would not underestimate what China may do just
because the US military is superior to their own. Maybe I am just flat
wrong but I think that you have to consider much more than just a
military aspect of this move. JMHO

(Sat Jul 19 1997 13:47)
@Kitco Bash
Has anyone set a target for this year. If not, I propose that if spot Gold hits 425. anytime between now and 97/Dec option expiry, we hold the first ever Kitco Bash in Montreal over a weekend.
Who 's in on this?

(Sat Jul 19 1997 13:48)
To Joe Granville, The little guy never wins. The main reason is because he never gets into a market until it is to late. His main motovation is greed and he's tring to get rich quick. This happened on the island of Hawaii during the realstate boom of the late 80's to 91. The cost of land got to high in Kailua-Kona so lava rock lots in south point started to skyrocket. Lots when from a few thousand to close to 50 thousand. This was where the little guy jumpped in. He could buy these lots. And the cost of land just went up anyway. When the market dropped they got stuck with land they couldn't sell. Some lost 70%.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 13:48)
To Joe Granville, The little guy never wins. The main reason is because he never gets into a market until it is to late. His main motovation is greed and he's tring to get rich quick. This happened on the island of Hawaii during the realstate boom of the late 80's to 91. The cost of land got to high in Kailua-Kona so lava rock lots in south point started to skyrocket. Lots when from a few thousand to close to 50 thousand. This was where the little guy jumpped in. He could buy these lots. And the cost of land just went up anyway. When the market dropped they got stuck with land they couldn't sell. Some lost 70%.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 13:58)
Kitco bash...425...I'm in

(Sat Jul 19 1997 14:16)
I'm with ya @ the bash...but....make it 443 by turkey day is what i'm lookin for.

George Cole
(Sat Jul 19 1997 14:18)
Richard Pomboy letter in Barron's


Case for Gold

To the Editor
Michael Santoli's article ( ``Precious Little Promise,'' July 14 ) finished a crescendo of negative
media coverage presenting the bearish case for gold. The extraordinary bullish aspects of gold
went unmentioned.

The fear story is that the central banks will sell all their gold. The reality is that very few are
selling significant amounts and the Asian central banks and others are buying. It has been
reported that, in 1996, 19 central banks bought gold while 16 sold, of which only five sold
more than 10 tons.

What is really happening is that some central banks are lending their gold through bullion
dealers to speculators who have an unprecedented short position. On the Comex alone, the short
position, before the last leg down in the gold price, was seven million ounces. Most observers
believe the OTC market in gold is three to five times as large as the Comex and that the Comex
transactions simply mirror OTC trading. That would put the total speculator short position at
over 800 tons. Furthermore, bullish sentiment, a contra-indicator, is now far lower than it was
when gold and gold shares took off in 1993. Finally, the lease rate to borrow gold from central
banks has recently been rising, indicating that even the expanded amount of gold available for
lending is being used up.

While the shorts have put on record positions, producers have been panicked into selling future
production. Fear is spread daily by a few bullion dealers trying to capture this producer
business and who are very likely short themselves.

Meanwhile, with a supply/demand deficit of 500-1,000 tons per year, the shorts must continue
to add to their positions to hold gold down. In addition, at these low gold prices, demand is
rising, further expanding the deficit. This builds on an already strong 17% increase in the
demand for gold in the first quarter.

Fear-spreading dealers predict gold prices of $300, $285 or even lower as they encourage short
sellers and producers to sell into the strong physical market because the dealers know they can
find buyers for the short sales. The dire predictions of the dealers focus on the $285 low in
1985. What they fail to say is that in 1985 there was no deficit in the market and the cost of
production was much lower, so production cutbacks were minimal. Now South Africa produces
gold at a cost of $300 per ounce versus $200 in 1985, and mine closures and production
cutbacks have already been announced which will widen the supply/demand deficit even further.

Another bullish aspect of the gold story is the EMU. While the market worries about
participants selling gold, the bigger picture is that the new euro will be a weak currency and the
Asian central bnaks will use gold to diversify their $600 billion of reserves, currently mostly in
dollars. This was made clear by Japan's Prime Minister Hashimoto when he threatened to sell
U.S. bonds to buy gold, not D-marks or other curencies.

As the romance with paper assets reaches its parabolic ascent stage, this creates a major
opportunity for those bold enough to enter the arena where gold shares now offer their best
value in decades.

Greenwich, Conn.


To the Editor
In Andy Zipser's ``Enemies Within'' ( July 7, Barron's/Lipper mutual-fund quarterly ) , I fail to
understand who's the ``enemy'' . . . unless it's Barron's.

It gets tiresome to see an article a month berating closed-end funds. If the enemy is supposed to
be the fund's directors, I'm puzzled. It seems perfectly logical that a closed-end's directors
would do all in their power to protect the fund from raiders trying to open-end it. I applaud
them. If I had wanted an open-end fund, that's what I would have bought. Usually, the holders
interested in open-ending a sound fund have been hoodwinked into buying it at its initial public
offering or at a premium - two of the simple fundamentals that seem to elude some otherwise
astute investors.

I'm equally puzzled at the reference to a four-year ``crippling'' bear market in closed-ends. My
entire portfolio has been invested in this sector since 1992; the only bear year was 1994, when
the bond- fund portion tanked - but it did recover.

Furthermore, all but two of my funds ( I keep about 25 at any one time ) were at a discount in
1992. Currently, all but two are also discounted by the market. So what? The total return of my
stock/bond funds ( 55%/45% ) so far this year is 10.5%. And the complaint that ``80% of the
funds are at a discount'' is repeating the obvious. Most closed-ends have always been discounted.
That's what makes them such good buys, if you do your homework.

Cary, N.C.

To the Editor
As usual, I enjoyed your quarterly mutual-fund review.

Artesia, N.M.


Copyright  1997 - Barron's Online, All Rights Reserved
Two World Trade Center - 18th Floor
New York, NY 10048

We welcome your comments, questions and feedback.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 14:19)
We all meet at BARTS HOUSE, what say you Bart?

(Sat Jul 19 1997 14:57)
Does anyone here really think that Greenspans upcoming comments will have much of a long term effect on the markets or gold? With all this money pouring into mutual funds and with government deficits topping of and in some cases beginning to fall where else can investment capital go? Europe? Asia? Commodities? Fight for a future shrinking government bond market? I don't think so. The majority of investors in North America invest the majority of their assets in North American equities that is what they are comfortable with. I don't think Greenspan or anyone else will change that.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 15:05)
Tim, I think greenspam is gonna sit on top of the fence at next meeting, he doesnot want to push this thing either way ( faultless that way )

(Sat Jul 19 1997 15:29)
adjusted #'s
Some have been quoting "record personal bankruptcy statistics" lately. Can anyone answer the following:

1 ) what were the personal banruptcy stats. in the late '20's; and
2 ) what was the ( approximate ) U.S. population in the late '20's.

I'd like to get a comparison of per-capita personal bankruptcy rates between then and now...any assistance appreciated.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 15:47)
Short Gold!!!!!
I put in more short gold on Friday, as I will do should gold limp it way up to 335. Looks like the gap was convincingly filled yesterday and I still believe short gold is the best place to be. My silver and platinum did very well also on Friday. Got out of some silver longs with 7 cents profit. A 7% profit in three days wile hold short gold is a nice return. For those of you who have expressed concern about my short gold, you see now how the long silver and platinum balance the risk and gave me profits. I will layer in more short gold at key levels and wait for the test of the recent lows. Should be some opportunities for day trades next week.

Bernatz de ventadorm - Thank you for your concern. Definitely had the skirt hiked high, but now Ive got my knickers back in place

(Sat Jul 19 1997 15:49)

Well put. It wouldn't take much to divert, constipate or otherwise cripple the U.S. military's logistics chain these days, either in Europe or Asia.

China DOES have silent partners & allies.....

(Sat Jul 19 1997 15:50)
@In Hiding
Anyvone kno vhere kan get karburator for 1942 Dodge Lend Lease truk?

(Sat Jul 19 1997 16:06)
Its the simple case of diversion, N. Korea goes south, the US moves fleet into the Yellow Sea, all eyes on Korea as China makes move on Taiwan. Tit
for Tat strategy, can't be in both places at one time!

Brighton Beach Plymouth and Lend Lease Dodge Truks
(Sat Jul 19 1997 16:15)
Ve zerve da Bruskee's's in Brooklyn - Kall wun 800 Brushkee vor goot deal

Karburator vor 1942 Dodge Lend Lease truk on vay to Albania by MIG jet vom Brooklyn. Komplement ov Krysler Motor's.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 16:30)
ROB: You can get bankruptcy stats at back to 1980. Older stuff via e.mail from American Bankruptcy Institute. Good Luck. Let us know what you find.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 16:30)
@....Apple vs MSFT in the "personal" os market of 2000
LAN MAN: I agree with you. However, things don't always go up and people don't always buy the same brands forever. NT is the corporate standard. I know, I sell NT and I use NT on my desktop. The problem with the Mac os never was the quality of its feature set, as you know. The problem was that it did not work with INTEL architected PCs. Rhapsody will operate on all systems.

More important are the web objects that Apple has incorporated in their os offerings. Java and the Internet spell doom for Bill Gates as he knows he no longer can steal the software ( Java ) or the momentum. He is forced to accept the paradigmn late in the game by ramping up his workforce to spread MS's newfound "marketing" faith in the Internet and secure objects. You know the problem with VBX objects ? They are insecure over the Internet....ask Cisco.

Java is the fastest growing programming language ever. It is destined to replace C++ just as C++ overtook C and C overtook assembly ( COBOL legacy is another story ) . Bill doesn't own Java. His enemys own Java.

The problem with MS is that it can not grow as fast as in the past without Java and secure Internet sodtware suite. It is an intersting dilema and one that is further complicated by the Rhapsody architecture that will run on Power PC and Intel boxes and is a robust host interpreter for Java. Keep in mind also that NT is no longer supported on PPC chips and 'less' supported on Alpha ( probably the fastest machine running the NT os ) than on INTEL.

The WINTEL alliance will breakdown. Will MS bite the dust ? Probably not. Will it experience lower growth potential due to a movement back to NC's ( smarter dumb terminals ) and run-any-where-anytime web objects
powered by "secure" Java programs and applets ? Definitely.

What has this got to do with gold prices ? Lots. We live in a zero-sum investment game. Either invest in MSFT or something else - like some gold....afterall MSFT is worth more than all the gold that exists today above ground ... well, if not now very soon I think !? may continue private disscussion

(Sat Jul 19 1997 16:35)
@In Hiding
You haf kapitalist kompany vat gif gud service. You vant svap platimum ingot for MIG? Ve need MIG parts too.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 16:37)
I appreciates your investment balls ( eggs ? ) and hope you are wrong but don't get too squeezed as I appreciate your comments - as I am sure may others do too.

Cheers and bad luck ;- )

(Sat Jul 19 1997 16:52)
CAPNKEV: I found some interesting reference material about Greenspan testimony. On February 23, 1988, Alan testified that he was concerned by "vast amounts of U.S. Dollars and dollar securities held by foreigners". At the same session he also said that "the huge overhang of foreign held dollars was forcing ( us ) to maintain a position of restraint and circumspection". That was nearly 10 years ago. The situation is far worse today. Let's see if it gets mentioned.

Brighton Beach Plymouth and Lend Lease Dodge Truk
(Sat Jul 19 1997 17:11)
Ve haf better deal

Ve fly MIG vit Platinum Bars and land in Siberia. Ve call Investia an zay MIG crash in Urals; den ve zell Karburator to RJ.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 17:27)
@In Hiding
Horosho. Is deal. How RJ pay karburator ven is broke?

Brighton Beach Plymouth and Lend Lease Dodge Truk
(Sat Jul 19 1997 17:41)
KGB sharp

How KGB know RJ broke???? His Orange Kounty vas broke in 1994, but ve all know dat. Ve gif him Karburator free, ven he lease, Lend Lease Truc.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 17:46)
@nowhere but here
It should come as no surprise that the two worst performing Fidelity sector funds for last months, 3 months , and 12 months were the two gold funds, FSAGX and FDPMX. But , as we all know the reverse law of gravity says what goes down must go up. They will be the best performing over the course of the next year, IMHO ( or I'll be a lot more broke than I already am )

(Sat Jul 19 1997 17:54)
@In Hiding
RJ and many PMG kustomers broke ven MIG "krash" in Urals. Platinum price go up. Den ve vait two veeks, start sirch party, "find" platinum in Urals. Price go down, ve mak more. How you like? KGB sharp like fox!

(Sat Jul 19 1997 18:42)
Query: When are the times gold is the weakest and financials are normally strong. ( no I am not looking for the ans "always" from some smart guy ) . FRIDAYS AND WHENEVER THE FED IS ABOUT TO ACT IN ANY WAY. Gold was up friday/ if it goes up through the Greenspan pre post and commensurate testimony then something has changed. Maybe they Short covered on Thurs and Fri, so they can have A GOLD KILL FOR CONFIDENCE in recognition of Greenspan's excellence and his wise words given to Congress. If gold is strong through this then the bull may be coming. There is a 50/50 chance of going below 320 by friday because of the need for the confidence effect. This is if history is any guide. Headin for the Big Apple on Monday look forward to y'alls comments on tuesday. Plan to visit Nymex at lunch I promise to spread a Soros type rumor so go long in the AM. Luck to y'all.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 18:55)
All: Reading for a quiet Saturday afternoon. From the February, 1988, edition of Kondratieff Wave Analyst, Donald J. Hoppe

Conditions that Precede a Long Wave Depression

1. Massive overbuilding in the capital goods sectors.
2. An unprecedented increase in debts at all levels, public, corporate and individuals.
3. Severe problems in international debt.
4. An era of extremely reckless speculation followed by a stock market crash-"the worst crash in 50 years"
5. A boom and bust in agricultural commodities and farm land, resulting in great distress in the agricultural sector, with many failures and foreclosures.
6. Troubles in the banking system, with a rising curve of bank failures, begining several years before the stock market crash.
7. A sharp rise in protectionist sentiment caused by increasing foreign competition and poor trade figures.
8. Producers of raw materials, oil, minerals and agricultural products, caught in a squeeze between high production costs and low prices, aggravted by huge surpluses and excess productive capacity. Cartels ( OPEC ) and quota agreements prevalent in efforts to hold down production and hold up prices ( they always fail in the end ) .
9 Retail stores jammed with merchandise, luxury items in heavy oversupply, price cutting and discounting rampant.
10. Huge rise in real estate prices during prior decade. Massive speculative building boom. Real estate market glutted with commercial and office properties.
11. Great increase in the number of people employed in the financial sector, stock brokers, bond salesmen, investment advisors, financial planners, fund managers, in-house traders, security analysts etc.
12 Financial mania and speculative boom of prior decade not limited to one or two countries but worldwide.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 19:05)
The Kansas City Star had a big write up on gold today in the business section. It was written by a local staff writer. The story was spun slightly bullish for gold. But the interesting part was that they interviewed some local coin shop owners who said they were having trouble keeping up with the physical demand. Seems these low prices have brought out the bargain hunters. The article also talked about people being nervous about the stock market. Hmmmm.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 19:14)
Donald: Sounds just like 1982-86 which i believe to have been the last trough of the Kondratieff wave. ( 1974 as orthodox peak, 1980 as end of the "plateau". ) I too have several of Donald Hoppe's old letters. He was excellent.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 19:35)
Looking at the daily charts for several of the gold stocks shows all but Homestake still sitting just below the 50 moving average. At this time and point, a move above the 50 day moving average for these shares should be significant. This includes the XAU and HUI, both below the 50 MA line..... The following URL which is available in the WEB Resource Links above has a Weekly Futures Gold chart which goes back several years. Looking at the stochastics below the bar chart shows that the red line has moved over the blue. Everytime this has accurred, eith in the upside or the downside, the price behavior of gold has lasted more than one week. In otherwords we had a significant momentumn change. Just another piece of the puzzle, but it does offer hope for next week..... But then Deaner said "hope can kill you." ( or something along that line ) . :- ) ....

(Sat Jul 19 1997 19:35)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day comparison and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

What is better than Gold?
My mom was visiting, I commented, that I went long on Gold
just before the July 4'th holiday and got Smashed.
" Don't worry about it, no one can predict the future."
I related that I was now scaling UP, with Big Chips and
that it was very difficult as the word on the street, was
that after 5,000 years it was all over for Gold.
" Don't worry about it, it will come back, it always does."
What better than Gold? ...... My MOM.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 19:40)
TED -- At some point, if you buy enough stock in a company, you have to file with the S.E.C. :- ) )

(Sat Jul 19 1997 19:59)
@ The Public Library
WW: If you run into Glenn, say hello to him from us here at Kitco.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Jul 19 1997 20:13)
as if anyone is interested
While it is not my policy to respond in any way to those whose apellations and actions even remotely resemble the "cogent feline" of ill repute, I am against censorship at Kitco, except for the most egregious and obvious ill behavior. In such a case, as has happened before, the poster should be banned pure and simple. And the judgement for such a fate should reside with Kitco management. They know what they are doing. Cherokee, you know I love you, grand warrior, and Bart, I adore you, but I hesitate to endorse any change whatsoever in this magnificent forum's format. I think we can police ourselves, and either ignore or excoriate those who violate our collective sensibilities with obnoxious behavior. As for those who defend obnoxiousness by proclaiming it is justified by being right, let me say that everyone on this forum, like a stopped clock, will be right at one time or another. And we will all be wrong as well. As long as we have the temerity and the chutzpah to voice opinions and make predictions, we will all be right and infinitum. Over time, we will each gravitate to those whose views are either most enlightening, or most entertaining. In the end, HOW those views are expressed will determine the civility of this forum, and the value of the company we all share with each other. As for those who are exceedingly concerned with how opinions affect decisions to invest "hard earned" bucks, I say lighten up. Maybe you should be out there helping Mother Teresa.This is only a gold forum, not brain surgery or war. Nobody lectures amnyone here about drinking, smoking, or cheating on your income tax. So if you can't play the game without whining, don't play the game at all. I vote NO CHANGE.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 20:20)
IT new version
Anyone using Internet Trader from Papyrus: The new version, which I just downloaded, indicates that I can now get Canadian quotes. How do I prefix or suffix the symbol for Toronto quotes? These do not work for Euro-Nevada: EN, EN.T, EN.TNT, T.EN, and TNT.EN. What works?

(Sat Jul 19 1997 20:32)
Byron... What is really impressive about the chart you posted at:
is the really CLEAR signal given by the MACD chart.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 20:34)
Kyat panic!
I can't believe I missed this one! On 15 July, the Kyat went from 250 to 300 per dollar! That's a huge devaluation! This article talks about the panic ( a real one, not perceived ) and refers briefly to gold....

(Sat Jul 19 1997 20:37)
India buying US debt?
Uh-oh. India wants to jump into the US Bond market. I don't have much of a background in bonds and such. But this seems like a huge departure from Indian fiscal policy. Can anyone comment on this? Is it a big deal?

(Sat Jul 19 1997 20:37)
@ The Waterline:
Yes Schippi. It's that type of signal which helps keep my head above water.: )

(Sat Jul 19 1997 20:41)
@ To The Rescue:
Auroelf: For DBC quote I use for example abx-tc or $gl-tc ( for the gold and silver index ) ...For Yahoo quotes I use ^tgl ( for the gold and silver index ) and for Toronto Stocks.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 20:46)
Try these
Some variation of these should help.
tse:symbol for Toronto, mse or me:symbol for Montreal and vse:symbol for Vancouver.
For YAHOO try; for Toronto, for Montreal and I think symbol.vo for Vancouver.
Sometimes Symbol-tc,-mc and -vc works; this is for USAtoday.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 20:49)
@ Lights Out:
Library closing shortly. Heading to Angle Island tomorrow for the 22nd yearly gathering of friends from the early 70's in San Francisco. Enjoy the remainder of the weeked. Looking for fireworks next week ( as always )

(Sat Jul 19 1997 20:59)
Scotty: The Indians are selling, not buying.

Mike Sheller: Your magnanimity is an example to us all. While I agree with you in theory, my dark side argues for at least an empty beer bottle heaved in his direction. I go now to contemplate my fallen nature. I will vote with you to keep the forum open.

Has anybody heard from Steve Puetz?

(Sat Jul 19 1997 21:03)
Mike Sheller @20:13: I heartily endorse and second your comments regarding censorship, and such. In a word: NO! Emphatically.

The process of communication and the flow of ideas should not be constrained just because it loses its bearings occasionally. The only limits should be those imposed by 'good taste' and Bart has shown himself to be a reasonable arbiter of those limits.

Those who find themselves at odds with others have many options and always one more than the military.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 21:04)
Jack, Byron: Thanks for the suggestions. Still trying all of them and others.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 21:20)
Got a chance to visit Cape Breton Island over the July 4th holiday. Played some golf at the Highlands course. It was a first time visit for me and I was really impressed with your neck of the woods. Sure beats New Jersey.

Mad Russian
(Sat Jul 19 1997 21:23)
Ve vould better hav Czar back

Ve lose Big Time ven Stalin shut us up.
Worse dan wen he rob our gold an buy bombs wit.
He vorst dan fractional reserve banking who use usery to rob you and buy bombs vit.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 21:23)
Got a haircut last weekend and my barber who is famaliar with, but does not own any gold stocks cautioned me against buying too many gold stocks. We must be pretty near the bottom now.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 21:25)
Cherokee, I found your statement about pendelums interesting. i agree. Human nature has not changed and what we have seen before we will see again. Herd mentality cannot be denied.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 21:29)
Mike Sheller: I understand and respect your opinion on "free speech" but I must add that not everyone feels that it is worth his time to post here when the Idiot may appear at any time. I know of at least six excellent and worthy posters who preceded you here at Kitco who simply left for more civilized quarters. This is a loss to the internet gold community which is not counterbalanced by a sentimental attachment to "free speech." Just as shouting fire in a safe theatre is antithetical to the concept of "free speech" so is shouting f*** y** on a civilized forum. And that in essence is what people like the Idiot have done. I support Bart Kitner's efforts to reclaim this forum for rational discourse.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 21:44)
@Fidelity Fund Charts
Schippi: play it for me one more time, I like the way it looks
( Fidelity charts that is ;- ) )
Some time ago you asked "pray for me" and I did - though for very
selfish reason. I have my money in both Fidelity funds to even it out.
Select American Gold doesnt have any holdings in foreign companies while
Precious Metals fund does. I have full intention to hold it through the
end of this century ( and Y2K mess )

My mom used to say "you are so pigheaded but eventually you get what
you want" ;- )

123456789abcd  : I hope you wont go broke - it would make two of us ;- )

(Sat Jul 19 1997 21:47)
time for Hepcat to put up
Mr. Hepcat: I've read with interest, bemusement, and occasionally some downright rile of your comments of the last week. Your underwriting themes seem to be two-fold:

1. Belittlement and insults. Examples: You referred to Earl as "Earp" in a very condescending way. You openly mocked the fact that Ted retired at 42. Both remarks were rude and uncalled for. There are many more, but I chose not to use up the bandwidth citing further examples. I am surprised that you cannot carry on a discussion without resorting to insults and demeaning comments - as I have noted that some of your posts are very well thought out, and even brilliant on occasion.

2. You seem to repeat a theme centered around the phrase "put up or shut up." OK, here's the deal - I'm putting up. Right now. Right here. I hereby challenge your claim to gold being at $325.00 on 29 July. The exact wager is open to your discretion. However, I offer the following recommendation: we both deposit into a neutral, but acceptable, third party escrow account the sum of 10,000 US Dollars. The escrow agent will be charged with a very simple tasking. He/She/It will release the money to you if the gold price on 29 July 1997 is US$325.00. If the price is not equal to that amount, they will release the money to me. The loser will pay the escrow fees which will be assured by a 2,000 US Dollar deposit made by both parties in addition to the original wager. Also, I recommend we use the PM London Gold Fix on that date. Of course, you may change this to any of the world's recognized closing gold fix you chose on the date of 29 July 1997. One last requirement: the whole transaction will be tracked and followed here on the Kitco site. Of course, certain privacy information about fund transfers, funding source ( s ) , escrow agents, escrow accounts, etc, will be protected by both parties. If either party violates these privacy considerations, then they will forfeit the wager regardless of the final gold closing.

If this wager is unacceptable in any regard, please post a wager ( or counter offer, if you will ) that will be acceptable to you. Baring any unethical or illegal conditions, I will likely be inclined to accept.

What say you, kind sir?

(Sat Jul 19 1997 21:50)
SCOTTY: Speed is right, they are selling bonds into the US market. I would classify them as un-rated junk bonds. Barron's carried a story last week about all the speculation in that market. The reference to U.S. Treasury bonds is misleading. I don't think the writer understood how it works. Today Barron's had a story about the combined capitalization of Intel and Microsoft, after the Friday rout, being greater than the GDP of India.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 21:53)
To Auroelf:

Auroelf: I use the same program for my Toronto and Vancouver stocks. For Toronto EN it would be T.EN for Vancouver it's V.STS for Montreal it's M.XXX you get the idea. Great stuff eh!


Who Cares?
(Sat Jul 19 1997 21:59)

Heck, I sure don't mind the postings from "Hep Cat".

I think it's amazingly funny that he thinks everyone
here is interesting in buying and selling gold over
a short-term horizon.

I have zero interest in *selling*, regardless of price. : )

I also think it's interesting to see the assumption that
gold is a commodity, subject only to "price of production".

Can I also assume, John, that you consider U.S. dollars
to be a "commodity", subject only to the "price of
production", i.e. five or six cents? : )

(Sat Jul 19 1997 22:00)
GENE, CHEROKEE: ( Pendulum ) Mark Twain said: "History does not always repeat itself but it rhymes" ( or something close to that )

(Sat Jul 19 1997 22:25)
Hong Kong

Honk Kong is reputed to have in excess of $100 billion in various currency reserves. It seems to me that China can do what it pleases with this windfall, if she so desires. While there may be pressures exerted to keep China from using these reserves for her own account; who can actually stop her? World Opinion?
If a Yen block comes into frutation, will China join.
Is their a possibility of a Russo/China/India block?
In my opinion; -aside from her present problems- Russia is to be taken very, very seriously.
Why can she not turn quickly in the economic sense?

(Sat Jul 19 1997 22:27)
China issues new rules on currency.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 22:58)
Mike Sheller ( 20:13 ) Brilliantly said!...and I am interested....

(Sat Jul 19 1997 23:03)
Stokes ( 21:20 ) Yes,my neck of the woods is quite nice but I've only been here for 5+ from NYC area....The near full moon is glistening on a calm ocean...BEAUTIFUL!

(Sat Jul 19 1997 23:05)
Panda ( 19:40 ) Whaaaaaaaaaaaaat???....What a spectacular evening....

Mike Sheller
(Sat Jul 19 1997 23:15)
concerning the mange
SPEED: I'll buy the beer! AUROPHILE: I hear you, really I do. I share your respect for the essential sanctity of this forum. I did also trust in Bart's wisdom to know when to pull the plug. Total excommunication at his command would not bother me in the slightest. It is HIS house, and I am equally sentimental about Private Property as I am Free Speech.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Jul 19 1997 23:17)
TED: It's all the way full as we "speak." ( The Moon, that is ) .

(Sat Jul 19 1997 23:28)
Hi Mike....I thought the 20th was THE full moon....granted it is now the 20th in our Atlantic time....WE are ahead of you "New Yorkers"...The weather is FINALLY great here with highs 75-80,lots of sun, and a gentle sea breeze usually blowin....

(Sat Jul 19 1997 23:28)
To All: I have found your comments very interesting. Does anyone know how gold stocks did after the crashes of '29 and '87? Any guess on how
they might fare in the coming crash? Which will do better, company stock or mutual fund?

(Sat Jul 19 1997 23:34)
KJB:HM soared after 29 crash.....and will do so again if we crash again..
Ditto:ABX,NEM,PDG,ect.ect....Better than MF'S imho....

(Sat Jul 19 1997 23:38)
TED -- Regarding the 19:40
What I meant, in jest, was, if I bought any more of their stock ( I wish ) I would be required to file with the S.E.C. Seriously, I don't have the S.E.C. problem. I wish I did though!
4.9% of $8.75 X 50+million shares comes out to about $5 more than I have. :- ) )

(Sat Jul 19 1997 23:38)
KJB: Here is a detailed account of what to expect in a Stock Market Crash - if history is testament, gold stocks should do well - see "Gold Stocks & the Great Crash of 1929 - Revisited :

(Sat Jul 19 1997 23:39)
Mike Sheller: Kewl, Mike! We be on same frequency.

(Sat Jul 19 1997 23:41)
Time to consult the charts on the backside of my eyelids. Goodnight all..

(Sat Jul 19 1997 23:51)
Panda: I'll loan ya the five.....

Mike Sheller
(Sat Jul 19 1997 23:54)
Looking up
TED, ALL: If the sky is clear where you are, look to the left of the full moon and you'll see Jupiter at 19 Aquarius ( as in the dawning of the Age of... ) . It's the brightest object out there, next to the Moon. ( literally NEXT to the Moon ) .Like taking time to smell the roses...

(Sat Jul 19 1997 23:57)
Apparently all that heavy lifting, to get GC up a measly 10 bucks on Thurs and Fri, has exhausted the ship's company. As a filler for Sat evening, here is an overlay of ABX and NEM in 30 min bars. Thought maybe someone would be interested in how their intraday action compared, since one is hedged and the other not. Notice that the last hour and a half was a little choppy. Monday may be a contiuation of same. NEM is in blue and commands the RH scale.