Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 00:03)
Mike: I can see the full moon and Jupiter from right at my computer seat and Jupiter IS really bright as it's crstal clear out....Am smellin the roses as life is too short....

(Sun Jul 20 1997 00:05)
For the silverbugs this evening we have a small delight ( not ) in the monthly. I'm wondering how this chart could stir the imagination any more than GC over the past year or more. Having broken through 450 it looks to be headed for at least 405 or possibly ( gasp! ) the '93 low at 360. If the '93 low was good for GC, why not SI?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 00:06)
Crstal=CRYSTAL in Cape Breton....

Steve - Perth
(Sun Jul 20 1997 00:06)
I vote with Mike Sheller. Aurophile, do you want Tortfeasor to stop posting jokes? I'm sure that would not be the case. Hepcat has been a bit quiter for past 24 hours. Remember, NO Threads.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 00:07)
Ted: Them's not roses you smell. Them's the tide flats. ( :- ) )

(Sun Jul 20 1997 00:07)
ALL.....20 years ago today silver closed at US$4.62...With gold @ US$146.00.........

(Sun Jul 20 1997 00:12)
Hi Earl!...It's high tide but there's still a little ocean smell out there...Do you think our two day rally will continue next week....10.90 in two days was a nice jump....

(Sun Jul 20 1997 00:14)
ALL and BILL BUCKLER...........There is a tremendous influx of demand for the physicals as demonstrated by state coin show.....Just back from state show and can attest to a tremendous increase in demand for physicals...Some people said they had not bought for 20 years....Back out in force this weekend....

(Sun Jul 20 1997 00:17)
Hi Nailz....Goodnight's gettin late in Atlantic Canada ( 1:17 )

(Sun Jul 20 1997 00:19)
Valiantly attempting to pull it's drawers up, we have the weekly XAU. Intuitively obvious is the need to break 100 or resume its dismal slide to .... wherever. I suppose it could break the downtrend by default and waffle sideways for several weeks. But that could hardly be construed as compelling action.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Jul 20 1997 00:21)
Re: China invading Taiwan. Saw a brilliant inside media spin job on ABC TV last night showing how Governor Chris Patten got the Hong Kong Legislative Council ( Legco ) to vote for his legislation on "democracy" during 94-95. He was really under the hammer. What was fascinating was that several major Chinese players were actively pressuring Legco members to vote against the British proposal. Also, Sir Willie Purvis of HKSB called from PEKING to also pressurise Legco members to vote against Patten also. VERY interesting indeed! What got me curious is WHY are they showing us this really inside view, including all of Patten's secret concerns, on VIDEO, including all the political tactics they used & language etc, to us mass audience. This is normally NEVER shown. Are the spin doctors trying to make Patten look good, in a lead up for him to take over the UK Conservative Party? Or just to show that the UK Sinologists were compliant with the Chinese wishes for Hong Kong? ( Those bureaucrats got plenty of interviews, including the previous Governor of Hong Kong ) Also showed Margaret Thatcher's resistance, but eventual cave in.

What was very revealing was that China viewed Hong Kong AND TAIWAN coming back to them at THE SAME TIME. Maybe China WILL do a deal with N. Korea, to keep the Yanks busy with Korea, while they go for Taiwan one dark night. Have you been noticing the recent postings how China has been testing their long range missiles, that a mobile on Trucks. Theoretically able to even hit California. WHY are we getting all this information through all of a sudden? You have almost forgotten that China was firing a few test missiles near Taiwan only a few months ago!! China will still sell us manufactured goods at a cheaper rate, when they take over Taiwan. US would sell their Grandmother if they had to.

Good post recently re: US Marines moving into Darwin. Yep, 3 hours from the hot spot. There has not been boo said about that issue in our Aussie press. Last week the northern suburbs of Perth were rocked with Sonic Booms from UK jets doing joint naval exercises off West Australian coast line. First time I can remember in years UK military around here. Normally just Yank Aircraft carriers coming in to get "serviced". I did hear there are three ships in Fremantle/Garden Island at the moment. The story was that they were around in case of any trouble developing over Hong Kong handover, now gone. Watch this space....

(Sun Jul 20 1997 00:22)
Ted: "Do you think our two day rally will continue next week...." ........ Only if I choose not to add long positions.

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Sun Jul 20 1997 00:38)
To Roebear & Steve: The only threads youll find at this site will be in the Kitco T-shirts that well have to start selling if gold keeps heading south! This format allows easy off-line reading, printing, and on-screen searching and so were gonna stick with it.

You can upload even a hundred page document to our FTP server and make it accessible on the group the same way Earl, bb fisher, panda, and others have been doing it with their charts.

To Mike: There hasnt been any editorial control exercised here in the past and there wont be in the future. Well be providing the tools to permit everyone individually to decide whose comments they want to suppress from their own monitors. A squelch button will also allow you to focus on only the posts that you may find interesting or entertaining by blocking all but a selected group of contributors. In essence it may create a threaded environment where a few hundred people are carrying on a few dozen conversations.

For the record.... nobody was ever banned from this group. Just one guy was required to post using his real name and email address. He elected not to.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 00:50)
Thanks for the quick response, Ted and vronsky. Maybe you could help me with something else. I don't understand why Japan and others have been so eager to buy US Bonds. If they are trying to prop up the dollar for the benefit of their exporters then why would Hashimoto threaten to sell US Treasuries? As I see it, dumping securites would kill the US economy and hurt their exports. Can anyone clarify? Thanks again.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 00:56)
in sack-o-tomatoes
All: INAL, but I think the question of free speech only comes up when the govt officially gets involved and takes steps to discourage someone from expressing his or her views. If folks here at Kitco shout someone down, they are not violating his right to free speech, but are merely exercising their own. Likewise, if Bart bans someone from Kitco, he hasn't violated their right to free speech -- unless he's a lawmaker and also has them hauled off to jail for it. Certainly, putting in a squelch button is no more a violation than a killfile in a newsreader. As Mike Sheller said, it's Bart's house, and he can do what he wants. So I'm all for a squelch button -- if it can be made to work.

In any event, we should all take comfort from the fact that the chief proponent amongst the anti-gold crowd here feels it necessary to resort to namecalling and other schoolyard taunts and tactics. IMO, nothing could more clearly reveal the bankruptcy of the follow-the-leader approach to investing.

Schippi: Very wise, your Mom. The view that a few decades of the late 20th Century have decisively and for all time redefined the role of gold in the world to be that of a trinket commodity seems to me to be pre-Copernican in the extreme. It says that what is happening here and now is the center of the economic universe. I think that history, to these folks, must be what happened last week on Seinfeld. Oh well, when it comes to betting on a "paradigm shift" that dismisses 7,000 years of history, I know where my money will be.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 01:08)
Bart: Muy bien Amigo. Don't overlook the need for the boss to have an overide on the squelch business. The day may soon arrive when you will find it amusing to break into all threads and announce that gold has just bounced USD 100. ..... On another note related to charts. Many are one post throw aways and bear no future utility. Since you have gathered around you a politically sensitive group of individuals whose first concern is for the environment; it would be nice to somehow overwrite old files and recycle old file names. As an alternate, perhaps these uploads could be stored to an index on your server and recalled by index number. ..... I dunno. It's late and there is no one to talk to.

Bill Buckler
(Sun Jul 20 1997 02:09)
Nailz ( Jul 20 00:14 ) Thank you for that. I especially liked the comments from people buying Gold who said they hadn't done so for 20 years. From my own research and many e-mails I think the definite conclusion is that physical Gold demand has risen strongly just about everywhere over the past two weeks.

That's the big "sleeper" in the whole situation. I have just sent the latest issue of The Privateer out to subscribers
and that phenomenon is one of the things I stress. Seems like the "hedge funds" have short sold Gold to the point where the "ordinary folk" see it as a bargain. This is the monster that the Central Banks did **not** want to create!

(Sun Jul 20 1997 02:16)

I have noticed a good deal of discussion of late regarding whether or not China has the military capability to take Taiwan and what strategies they may use to divert the attention of the US in order to accomplish this goal. IMO, there is absolutely no way that China will ever mount an open military assault against Taiwan. Those who have some knowledge of the art of strategy as practised by the Chinese and as encapsulated in the writings of Sun Tzu would understand why, but in summary :

1. Those who are skilled in strategy do not achieve victory through open conflict. Those who are truly skilled in strategy position themselves such that their eventual victory is perceived by their opponent to be inevitable, thus resulting in the capitulation of their opponent without the need for battle.

2. A victory which results in the destruction of the opponents resources is achieved by a leader who is not skilled in strategy. A skillful strategist will achieve victory in such a way as to preserve the opponent's resources. These resources can then be used to increase one's own strength.

When Taiwan is eventually merged back into China it will be a peaceful re-union which will be a Chinese victory gained through stealth and deception, not military conflict.

Regards, Milhouse

(Sun Jul 20 1997 02:29)
This may be my last post as Ill probably need to hock the computer to raise some quick cash. Found out today that my wild speculating has finally come home to roost and, as Orange County before me, I have lost it all. Serves me right, slinging trades around like dollar chips at a cheap casino, cocksure arbitrages over early morning cappuccino, snorting at all I read in the WSJ because I knew it all two days earlier, and what the hell do those guys know about the real world markets anyway?

Yes, life comes with a price and the tag is a frightening read when your wallet is suddenly gone and your not sure just who the pickpocket is, but that bastard at the next table, grinning and chatting without a care, looks a little bit too smug to be paying for all that coffee and four dollar croissants with his own money.

There is only one way to handle this sort of sociopathic slime. I waited until the coffee went to work on his kidneys and then I followed him into the mens room. I made believe that I was tying my shoe, but instead slipped of one of my Johnson Murphy crocodile penny loafers, the last I may ever own, and bashed him on the back of the head as he stood at the urinal. A quick pat down failed to produce my missing wallet, when I suddenly realized my wallet wasnt gone at all, just my lifes work in an orgy gold shorts and unrestrained fast trades. This was no pickpocket, just a hapless innocent, caught in the crossfire of a beaten broker on a loosing binge and simple circumstance of fate.

I thought, to hell with it, its not my fault the market moved against me. All those years, my close friend and trusted partner. I never saw it coming, when it turned on me like a junkyard Doberman when its got you up against the chain link fence and is just waiting for you to try to climb so it can take a five pound hunk of flesh and Levis from you fleeing ass. These markets blow crueler than any hurricane wind and before you know it, your just another piece of debris, like the plywood, trees, and mobile homes tossed about when one of those unpredictable Atlantic storms rips through the panhandle, gathers strength over the warmer waters, and comes roaring in from the Gulf as it hits one of these small burgs that hasnt seen a storm with a name since eighteen-ought-six.

I felt as battered and abandoned as I watched the horrific turnaround in gold this week. Before I knew what was happening, I was living a nightmare. Gold, heretofore so pathetic and weak, stopped it grim slide and, with a whipsaw turnaround, blitzkrieged through all resistance, leaving me holding a mountain of uncovered shorts. It wasnt long before the hordes began gathering outside. All those, who sent me Christmas cards and smoked Alaskan salmon when profits where riding high, where now milling about the parking lot outside my office. I could hear the start of a menacing chant rising from the asphalt as the throngs began breaking down doors and taking hostages. I always suspected it would end like this, so I used the market meltdown security exit - a kind of "bat pole" from the top floor trading offices to a subterranean passage leading to a nearby mini mall of bagel and coffee shops.

It was here I found myself, kneeling over a dazed and battered pickpocket writhing in a puddle of his own urine. To hell with them all, I thought as I grabbed his wallet and Rolex and started rifling through his pockets for more loot. In his inside suit pocket, I found a fat envelope with unintelligible letters written in bold red ink across the front. I couldnt make out the writing, but the lettering looked almost English, but with some of the letters written backwards like the first spellings of a preschooler. With a start, I realized these were Cyrillic characters. I put the envelope aside and began to search through his wallet. Beneath his California driver license was another laminated card bearing the same face as the barely conscious man at my feet. The writing was defiantly Russian and my blood grew cold as I read the words that I thought died with the cold war: Komitet Gosudarstvenno Bezopasnosti, This bastard was KGB!

The form at my feet began to stir but I soon stilled all movement with a vicious kick to the back of his neck and a couple at the base of his spine for good measure. Thatll teach the son of a bitch to pick my pocket! Who do these Russians think they are? Dont they know its over and we won? I savagely ripped open the fat envelope and dozens of hundred dollar bills fell over the huddled mass at my feet. I gathered up the cash and noticed what looked like a map on a small white piece of paper hidden amongst the bills.

I moved closer to the light and found, to my surprise, the words on the paper were in English! It was a map, with directions to a midnight meeting, where apparently there would be an exchange of cash and, I couldnt believe my eyes, platinum bars, for something called a Karburator. The note detailed the location of several thousand ounces of platinum that was supposed to be picked up just prior to the clandestine exchange.

I laughed with spiteful glee as I stuffed the cash in my pockets. I checked the time on the Russian bastards Rolex and saw I would have plenty of time to rent a truck to transport the platinum before this looser on the floor came to and either fled or showed up to the meeting with limp excuses of bathroom skullduggery. Ill have to rent a storage garage to keep the bars of metal in temporarily, better get several, spread the stuff around. It wouldnt do to open the storage door and find my platinum was gone before I could put my plan into action. It might take me a week or two to convert the bars into tradable cash, not all of it, but enough to start laying in new gold shorts. Let It keep going up, Ive got enough resources now to keep putting in shorts even if gold hit $750 - $800. Its got to turn around sooner or later. The big bear will claw out the poor bulls eyes leaving it to stumble blindly into an open and ravenous pit. I smiled happily as I left the coffee shop, and began to whistle a little ditty as I hailed a cab. RJ is Back!

(Sun Jul 20 1997 02:49)
Money Supply

The latest figures show that total US money supply ( M3 ) has increased at an annualised rate of 9.2% so far in 1997. 4 weeks ago the annualised rate of increase was 7.4%. Over 70 billion US dollars have been added to the money supply during the last month. Draw your own conclusions !

Regards, Milhouse

(Sun Jul 20 1997 02:55)
Don't know who just posted the RJ...Down and out story,
but with literary talent like that, your wasting yor time in
a Gold room, just write a novel.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 03:09)
@RJ is back

RJ - loved your 02:29 post. I have but one question : I have noticed that much of your inspired prose mentions, or even centres around, urine. Any explanation ?

BTW, based on the results of your silver play I don't think you need to worry about your gold shorts. Even though you started buying silver in the 4.50's, and kept buying all the way down, you still managed to report a profit on this trade in an earlier post. I can therefore only assume that you have invested in the Bob Rubin book on accounting entitled "Accounting, the Untold Story ( or how to spend 10 times more than you earn and still report a reducing deficit ) ". Using the theories expounded in this masterpiece you should be able to close out all your shorts when gold hits $500 and still show a handsome profit. ( :- ) )

Regards, Milhouse

(Sun Jul 20 1997 03:17)
Still own some of my more expensive silver. The same clients made $ on gold shorts and long silver at 4.16 - closed at 4.31. I could take the loss on the 4.50 - 4.60 silver right now and still be ahead, not much, but ahead. I will hold the silver for awhile and lay in new gold shorts against it with my new found wealth. I do like your math though, were you ever a broker?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 03:18)
Oh yeah, I gotta' take a leak...........

(Sun Jul 20 1997 03:19)
Milhouse and Steve - Perth: Re China and Taiwan - Good points. However, Milhous, Hitler got several pieces of "property" without fighting until he moved on Poland ( and even here he did not think the English and French would move ) . China has gotten Tibet and HK without conflict and Taiwan may be next on their list. I think China is taking the place in the world now that Germany had in the 30's. And our percent of GDP spent on defense is lower than it was in the late 30's. What has all this got to do with gold? Current events have a strong baring on the price of gold.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 03:25)

Scotty - This sounds like a great bet, only I would change two things:
1. It's not enough that I get the dollar figure correct. I must be correct
out to two decimal places, and predict where it will be at 20, 10, and
5 minutes before the close.
2. Since you obviously spent a lot of time saying what I must do
while avoiding any prediction of your own, why don't you get a print-
out of your suggested "bet" and fold it origami-like into the shape of
an anus.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 03:25)
Millhouse: Recently, it was widely reported that the US had "retired" some 65 Bil of debt. Is there any connection with the money supply numbers and said debt retirement? It would be shocking, if true.

Who Cares?
(Sun Jul 20 1997 03:26)

Millhouse - interesting money supply numbers. I'd been wondering
why the Federal Debt clock stopped at $5.35T two months ago.

Considering that Sam was running $25B / month deficit, I can easily
see where it went it now. : )

What the hell. It may finally have dawned on somebody that their
economic numbers are a joke. : ) Holy moly.

RJ needs to spend more time reading history, and less watching
Bogart. : )

Goldbug Omega-1
(Sun Jul 20 1997 03:26)
RJ: Schippi is right, spend your spare time writing a novel and persevere until it sells. You are wasting your talent on gold and silver?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 03:32)
Goldbug Omega Zenith
I would love to, and may someday. Meanwhile, like all here, gold dust runs through my veins.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 03:32)

I have to laugh, because not only am I being cast as the supreme villian at
this site, but I am also being called "anti-gold". I have gone out of my way
at least five times over the past three months to specifically state I am not
"anti-gold" but am anti bad advice.
Aurophile is speaking in absolutes ( note I am called "Idiot", which is okay.
It's only rude if I call someone else "Idiot" ) . He acts like I drove the six best contributors from this site. Not only is it completely false ( Oldman, for example,
"left" the site after the constant sparkling success of his trades was challenged.
I had nothing to do with this childish tantrum ) , but it doesn't take into account
all the people who have become disenchanted and left this site because of
his poor track record over the past year. Shall we count all of the posts from
people who have lost money and are giving up and ask that Aurophile
be removed from the site?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 03:34)
to Millhouse

Millhouse: Is this what is known as monetizing the debt?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 03:39)
History Smchistory! Ever read Orwell?
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.

Who Cares?
(Sun Jul 20 1997 03:42)

RJ's spent too much time in Newport Beach. : ) It's an okay place
to be born ( okay, okay, Redondo, close enough ) , but it's a GREAT
place to be FROM. : )

Hepcat - I don't mind villians, but I find their frames of
reference interesting.. Like, the phrase "lost dollars". Sorry,
John, but I haven't lost one MICROGRAM of gold lately, despite
the interesting fluctuations of bogus paper during the past
two weeks. : )

9.2%. And Greenspan can't figure out why the NYSE is exploding?
They printed TONS of money from 91-94, and now it's finally
arrived, and NOBODY can figure it out?

The real question, will they replay 91-94 again, and create an
even greater bubble, to be poppped in 2003? Gad, I'm not sure
various governments are even going to survive the current bubble.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 03:45)
RJ: And perception is reality. In sum, not as contradictory as it appears on first reading.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 03:46)
Schippi - Orwell also wrote:
All writers are vain, selfish and lazy, and at the very bottom of their motives lies a mystery. Writing a book is a long, exhausting struggle, like a long bout of some painful illness. One would never undertake such a thing if one were not driven by some demon whom one can neither resist nor understand

Who Cares?
(Sun Jul 20 1997 03:48)

RJ - history. That's right. Come on, man. I even gave you
a Master's thesis for free!!!! : ) You never looked up Dalio,
did you? I knew you wouldn't. It's okay. : )

But, when somebody puts EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE in my face, I pay
attention. : ) Railroads - networks, information monopolies,
conspiracies! Get on board the train, chum! CHOO!! CHOO!!!

Sorry, I've overdown my limit tonight, I'm on my second beer,
and my students actually surprassed my expectations on Fridyay.
They got that info thing, the essence of it, right off the bat. : )

Even whipped out a digital template for making fake state IDs.

Hey, when students in the fourth quintile whip out fake paper,
I KNOW gold is the real deal. : )

(Sun Jul 20 1997 03:49)
I figured you would "get it". You did not disappoint.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 03:51)
Who Cares?????
Indeed....... I do.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 03:57)
Who Cares
Redondo aye? - I will skate Redondo to Santa Monica tomorrow. The Stand is quintessential California. The men all look like Timothy Leary, the women all look like Baywatch.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 04:03)
If Nailz is indeed correct that demand for gold was up at the state coin show,
then this marks the 20th consecutive week where someone at Kitco has
posted that demand for gold was up at the state coin show. I'm not sure
exactly how to incorporate this information. After the FUN show in Florida
this winter, a number of people came on site all out of breath saying how
demand was way up compared to previous years. I guess it just shows
that the common man is Idiot, since gold dropped like a rock thereafter.
Meanwhile, we always can rely on RJ giving us the latest installment in
his "Oh thank-you, thank-you, you're too kind, I'm not a writer but let me
not-write for you" series.

Who Cares?
(Sun Jul 20 1997 04:07)

And the quintessential message of Los Angeles is that "nobody
here ever believes they're going to die".

Sounds like you missed the big bubble, from 87-89. Man, I got
out JUST in time, June 1990. : ) But, of course, at that time,
NOBODY believed it was a real estate bubble. Prices went up
25% in 87, 25% in 88, 25% in 89, and it was never going to end,
even though NOBODY could even afford their own homes anymore.

It was a pretty wild ride. And I almost got suckered, too. I
*almost* got caught up. I watched people buying on margin,
selling, and making $1000s of dollars, doing nothing, for
almost three years.

The current market is exactly the same. It's not even real
money. It has *zero* meaning. But, luckily, I have already
lived through one bubble. : ) I like gold. A lot. : ) I was
on the Santa Monica pier in, er, yeah, gad, was it last August?

L.A. has changed a *lot* in six years. Real quiet. The cars
are junky. Nobody on the pier talked much. And they had a neat
historical plaque that listed George Bush and the New World Order. : )

They actually started rebuilding the pier the month after I left. : )

L.A. has already seen depression. I'm kind of interested in if
it will see further misfortunate when this new, paper bubble pops.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 04:10)

Of course, people have been talking about the imminent collapse of
the bubble, for, oh, I don't know, about the last year on this site.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 04:18)
@Money Supply

Earl, Who Cares, Joe37 - it seems counter-intuitive to me that 65B of debt could be retired during a time when the money supply is increasing at such an incredible pace. The only things which come immediately to mind are :
1. The increase in private debt has dramatically exceeded the reduction in Federal debt over this period, and much of this private debt has been monetised by the banks ( note - this may explain the continued flood of money into the stockmarket )
2. The retiring of the debt involved the purchase, by the Fed, of Govt debt which had previously been owned by non-monetary agents ( private individuals, Japanese Govt, etc ) and this debt was then monetised by the Fed ( that is, they created new money to purchase it ) . The debt would then have been "retired" by a transfer of 65B from the Treasury to the Fed. Why they would do this is beyond me, unless they do not want to take any action which may strengthen the dollar.

Anyone else have any ideas ?
Regards, Milhouse

Who Cares?
(Sun Jul 20 1997 04:23)

John, John, John. What is a "year" in the life of a young
retiree? : )

You're right. I been waiting awhile. I finally decided in
1994 that paper was dead. The collapse should have started in
'91, and it did. Batra was right. Donald knows this, don't
you, Don? And Puetsch ( oh, man, I know I got that wrong,
but luckily, my wife put TWO almost-empty beer bottles back
in the carton : ) ) was doing his calculations back in '94,
I've got a clip somewhere.

Regardless. I hereby give you full permission to buy into
it. : )

The only thing that Batra and Davidson got wrong is just how
desperately governments would try to keep the game going. I
give them credit. They bought us SIX years. Beyond imagination,
as the thought that a $250K house could now be selling for $125K. : )

9.2% That's really, *really* bad number, John. : ) My wife's
astrology chart says to avoid 9s in the month of August. : )

Wait, wait. 3-2-5, that sums up to.. 10. Oh, crap, THAT is
bad number, John. When you do the $10K bet, do it for something
like $324.90, or $325.10. : )

(Sun Jul 20 1997 04:31)

Indeed. Or what is a "wife" if not a "return beer to carton" Stepford animatronic.
( What kind of beer comes out of a carton? Beer ice cream? )

Who Cares?
(Sun Jul 20 1997 04:36)

Millhouse, re: monetization.

Well, I do have a couple of ideas. I *hope* that everyone here
knows how Uncle Sam has restructured his debt under our pal Bill.

If you check out the Treasury site, they'r refunding something
like almost $1T per month now. And an additional $2T has been
shifted into 2-5 year notes. So, like, *any* increase in
interest rates turns Uncle Sam into one gigantic S&L. He's
loaned long into the future ( entitlements, etc ) , and
borrowed short. An increase in rates sinks the boat, it would
probably show up fairly quickly.

And, because this has been talked about so widely, I imagine
that Sam's #1 concern to to avoid showing the *symptoms* of
a S&L-like blowout. Ergo, rates can NOT be allowed to rise. : )

And, shifting that much money around, they HAVE to have really
messed up the yield curves and such. I really have no idea of
what kind of effect it's had. I know it's not trustworthy.

I *believe* that the great amount of U.S. bonds bought up in
the past two years is a big, bad sign, but I can't pin it down
beyond my belief that it indicates that *average* investors are
already shifting away from U.S. debt.

Heck, Sam has already played two big rabbits out of his hat,
keeping it all going for the past two years. I have every
expectation that they have done extensive computer simulations
and probably have a couple more rabbits left. But, I also
imagine that every rabbit just makes the long-term outcome
even worse.

And. If Sam were to monetize the debt, the first signs would
*appear* to be a booming, health economy, no? So, we could
expect that "tax revenues" really *are* increasing, too. : )

I'm surprised that they'd let a number like 9.2% out, though.
They've been all over the map on the public pronouncements of
the yearly deficit. Why not just fake the other numbers, too?

Who Cares?
(Sun Jul 20 1997 04:43)

John - Sorry, I'm not real big on details these days. Carton,
_Henry's_. Portland. The only beer I can really distinguish
from tea.

And. I strongly warn you. You can screw with Millhouse, you
can screw with Earl. You can even screw with me, 'cause I don't
hardly care. But...

FEAR my wife. Trust me on this. : )

(Sun Jul 20 1997 04:58)

Man, think when the whole structure you're supporting right now
starts to collapse. How do you squelch the sound of scaffolding
when it starts to evaginate?

Who Cares?
(Sun Jul 20 1997 05:08)

John - scaffolding? Whatch you talkin' 'bout, Willis?

I don't really care, John. Other than as an intellectual
exercise. History is pretty clear. There's not much that
*my* particular viewpoint can affect, now is there?

It would be *nice* not to have my life disrupted, and I've
done the best I can over the past seven years to accomplish
that. But, ultimately, what I *believe* doesn't make much

And the DJ is a perfect example of that. Personally, I would
be quite pleased if Greenspan & Co manage to make the whole
game last another five years. But I'd be really surprised if
they do.

Strad Master
(Sun Jul 20 1997 05:13)
ALL: Well, guys 'n gals, I leaving for two weeks to teach Chamber Music at a festival in the San Bernardino Mountains ( Idyllwild - for you Southern Californians. ) If the past history of my leaving for trips is any prognosticator of the future, I predict the following. The price of metals will surge upward. Many of you will make lots of money. So, until I return in two weeks, good luck to you all. Make lots of money!!!! I can't wait to hear all the stories when I get back. God bless you all.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 05:41)
Good mornin ALL....WE had a beautiful sunrise over the North Atlantic and now it's just a damn nice day to be on this planet....and the ocean!.....
Lookin forward to tonight and seein if the Asians want to continue our nice little rally....

(Sun Jul 20 1997 05:45)
Strad Master:Have a good two weeks and I hope you're right....

(Sun Jul 20 1997 06:12)
Earl ( 00:22 ) You are starting to sound like me.....can we really be the kiss of death???

(Sun Jul 20 1997 06:16)
KJB:Methinks it's only a THREAT that Japan will unload U.S. Treasury bonds...Why shoot yourself in the foot???....Scotty: Did you expect anything differen't???....

(Sun Jul 20 1997 06:40)
Bunch of early risers we got....Talkin to my damn self....and this early in the day yet....Usually don't start that until at least 9 AM...

(Sun Jul 20 1997 06:48)
I'm Back: Ted goes on vacation and gold collapses while the Dow soars. I go on vacation and gold rallies and the Dow declines. I am not a superstitious person. Nonetheless, you may want to pay Ted to stay home, and contribute to my vacation fund.

I'm back.

Steve Puetz

George S. Cole
(Sun Jul 20 1997 06:54)
Base Building

A little birdie tells me the stock market still has not peaked. Probably one more rally to 8300 or so before it turns south for real.

Gold's short=term acion may frustrate both the bulls and the bears, Lots of volatility but no clear trend. WW is right in arguing there is a fifty-fifty chance gold will drop below $320 next week.

We are now entering a base building period in preperation for a huge bull move. And the bull likes to charge with as few riders as possible..

(Sun Jul 20 1997 07:13)
GEORGE S. COLE: There is a hint of Fall on this beautiful morning, mabye you could tell your little birdie to "head south" now and not wait for 8300?

George Cole
(Sun Jul 20 1997 07:27)
stock market
Donald: I forgot to add, don't bet the farm on little birdies. But seriously, the market is more likely to break sharply when Dow 8000 has APPARENTLY changed from resistance to support. But when this market does break for real ( probably next month ) it will go down HARD.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 07:35)
Got up early and have been surfing the curriency related net. It looke like the US Dollar will go up a bit more to reach Ian McAvity's target of 1.85 or so. Since gold has been mirroring the dollar in reverse and the stockmarket has been going up with the dollar, it lookes like we have some more pain to go through before the lows for gold are in.
BUBA and Greenspan do not have too much flexibility with regard to intrest rates, so the currency speculators will probably push things to a further extreme.
This is OK with me as it will allow some further accumulation of the gold and silver and Paladium shares ( SWC ) . It appears that the South African shares that I have been following ( WDEPY, BLYVY, and HGMCY ) have done very well this last week. They are up about double what the NA unhedged majors have done.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 07:36)
Welcome back Steve! Your plan sounds good to only please!

(Sun Jul 20 1997 07:37)
This from London headlines, no date given.
US dollar stocks dominate Singapore market
Small-capitalised stocks denominated in US dollars dominated activity on
the Singapore stock market as the local currency slipped to new 30-month
lows, dealers said.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 07:46)
Korean government attempts to stop bankruptcy chain reaction.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 08:16)
Front: Thanks. IT advice worked. Yes, a great toy.

Earl: Your ABX/NEM chart has a gap on July 18 that may later be filled.
Your silver chart looks dismal for the longs, better for those patiently awaiting a re-entry point. But why do you and panda draw your channel lines through the candles, rather than at the outside edges of the shadow? The outlying days that exceeded expectations are still real. Thanks again for recommending Beyond Candlesticks. It is even better than Nison's first book, with clearer discussion of the patterns after his additional years of practice and research into the Japanese sources.
I must try to read all I can of it over the next few days, before leaving for a 3 week trip.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 08:20)
Argentina frets about a Brazilian devaluation, Alan Greenspan testimony and its impact on Argentina, and the "Tequila Effect" of problems in Latin America. ( This is all in Spanish )

bb fisher
(Sun Jul 20 1997 08:21)
ode@to hepcat
There was once a time
hard to do
achievement earned
meant more to you
but with time
came changes towards
personal effort saw diminished rewards

Now were're here and here is where
group is all
the 'you' is small
achievment earned is still hard to do
was achievement won because of 'you'?

The nagging doubts...
you'll never know
for you hepcat and not in jest
ole langston hughes sends his best

"Trumpet Player

The Negro
With the trumpet at his lips
Has dark moons of weariness
Beneath his eyes
Where the smoldering memory
Of slave ships
Blazed to the crack of whips
About his thighs.

The Negro
With the trumpet at his lips
Has a head of vibrant hair
Tamed down,
Patent-leathered now
Until it gleams
Like jet--
Were jet a crown.

The music
From the trumpet at his lips
Is honey
Mixed with liquid fire.
The rhythm
From the trumpet at his lips
Is ecstasy
Distilled with old desire--

That is longing for the moon
Where the moonlight's but a spotlight
In his eyes,
That is longing for the sea
Where the sea's a bar-glass
Sucker size.

The Negro
With the trumpet at his lips
Whose jacket
Has a fine one-button roll,
Does not know
Upon what riff the music slips
Its hypodermic needle
To his soul--

But softly
As the tune comes from his throat
Mellows to a golden note."

(Sun Jul 20 1997 08:22)
British Columbians: The Vancouver Stock Exchange is closed to visitors. I had hoped to see where the gold juniors trade, but their public relations staff says no. What are the other must-see sights in and around town, besides UBC Botanic Gardens, VanDusen Gardens, SunYatSen Gardens, Butcharts Gardens, and is Minter Gardens worth the trip?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 08:27)
Good afternoon JIN!...You have a letter...Keep us at Kitco informed about gold and the rapidly changing currencies in your area as S.E. Asia seems to have the potential to move gold one way or another in the near future.
Will Japan bail out Thailand?? and who is next??

(Sun Jul 20 1997 08:40)
TED: Here is the latest on Thailand and assistance from Japanese banks.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 08:45)
The Japanese point of view on Thailand.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 08:47)
Thanks Donald!...I follow Thailand closely as my brother is a trader on the S.E.T. ( the Thai stock exchange ) amd has lived in Bangkok for many years...Big problems are brewing in S.E. Asia...Right Jin...

(Sun Jul 20 1997 08:55)
DONALD: The latest from Bangkok....

(Sun Jul 20 1997 08:56)
DONALD: The latest from Bangkok....

(Sun Jul 20 1997 08:56)
DONALD: The latest from Bangkok....

(Sun Jul 20 1997 08:58)
Sorry! Itchy trigger finger...

Bob M
(Sun Jul 20 1997 09:08)
Good morning , gentlemen. Anything new and exciting going on this morning in the world that will affaect the metals?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 09:32)
@joke for the day
Good morning from just outside Beantown...I occasionally post and enjoy the Kitco site..not to steal Tortfeasor's thunder ( I enjoy his jokes...
particularly the one about Tonto Goldstein! )

I just read that Showtime ( Cable TV ) will be doing a movie about the
lives of N.Y. Yankees' manager Joe Torre and his brother, Frank.

This reminds me of a story about Joe Torre. Torre had just been called up to the majors and was inserted in the lineup in the late innings as a backup cathcher in a meaningless, out-of hand game. . ( Torre's team was
trailing by several runs ) .

With a runner on second ( I believe it was the massive Frank Howard ) ,
the next batter lines a single to left...with Howard ( Le Grand Orange )
bearing down on Torre and the ball arriving late from the outfield...
Torre, inexplicably, moved out of the way of the oncoming Howard.

When Torre got back to the dugout..he sheepishly looked at his manager...the first words out of the manager's mouth ( a New Englander
I believe by birth ) were: "Chicken Catcha Torre!"

I realize it's pretty corny...but, it's Sunday morning and I haven't had my coffee yet...have a great day!

John Disney
(Sun Jul 20 1997 09:44)
For Hepcat -
I dont know exactly how you do it - but you are one of the most
tiresome and annoying people Ive ever had any contact with.
It must be really dreadful to be you. I cannot imagine anyone
being able to stand you even for a brief period of time. You are
truely painful. Dont bother to reply - I try to avoid your posts
since they contain neither meaningful information nor ideas. They
merely annoy. Rotten little kids can do that.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 09:55)
...perception is befitting of the "Dow"...
Delete some "dog's" ei ) Woolworth's & replace it with Walmart, and voila' the Dow CONTINUES its uptrend.
...and we ACCEPT IT ...THEIR mind conditioning is incredible!

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 20 1997 09:58)
Blue Skies smilin'
EARL: If you connect that '93 bottom showing on your silver chart with the 71/72 base from which silver rose majestically once upon a time, you will have the essential remaining support line beneath the current silver market at this point in time. That level, give or take for time/space aberration over two decades, should work out to roughly 4.09 to 4.15. It may even have been hit in the last couple weeks. I don't want to appear excessively pollyannaish over silver, and my shares of recently bought SSC notwithstanding , but I think this potential floor under silver is important to be watched. A breakdown below 4.09 or so would lead me to believe a truly deflationary paradigm shift is underway. I'm not ready to accept that fully. But then there are many aspects of reality I'm not ready to accept...fully.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 20 1997 10:03)
Where else can one come and find culture sandwiched between gold prices and scuttlebutt, if not Kitco! BBFISHER: Thanks for the poem and Langston Hughes. RJ: You reminded me of how much I was once infatuated with Mickey Spillane...and why. Gracias tambien! It's always a pleasure finding talent, passion, and joy for life on the monitor here. The truly civilized and intelligent offerings that are daily kitco fare are always enjoyed.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 10:03)
Good morning ED! Why don't you join our little discussion group at KITCO!

(Sun Jul 20 1997 10:06)
Vronsky: Bill Buckler has a really great issue this week. Perhaps you could swing it so that he could be a "guest guru" or something and everybody could read it. Now that I've plugged you both, breakfast calls.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Jul 20 1997 10:08)
MILLHOUSE: After reading "The Asian Mind Game" some time ago, I think you are spot on re: China & Taiwan. The key words are "stealth" & "deception". The deception I feel is partly rooted in generations needing to survive centuries of poverty. Once something is built into a mind-set, it is pretty hard to knock out. It is worth noting however, the massive building program going on in Shanghai. Some of those buildings are massive. I know one thing, power follows where the money goes.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 10:12)
currencies devaluations continue

Steve - Perth
(Sun Jul 20 1997 10:13)
Sir James Goldsmith made page 8 of the Perth Sunday Times. Great gem..
Renowned for his keen sense of market timing, Sir James' investment motto was: "If you see a bandwagon, it's too late". I'll be slotting that one away for future reference...

(Sun Jul 20 1997 10:18)
Strad Master, have a nice vacation in the mountains. As a teen-ager, I used to go to dances in that area, it was beautiful there and probably still is.

I will be in Anaheim Calif Saturday & Sunday. Will be staying at the Hilton at the convention center. Are there any Kitcoites there? Would love to have coffee. I will be in San Bernardino & Victorville Monday & Tues. ( Just a stone's throw Strad ) . This is my real E-Mail address.

Lets hope there are no surprises in the market next week and gold continues its climb.

I will be taking my laptop with me but will be moving around a lot so don't know if I will be able to "keep in touch"

God Bless you all

(Sun Jul 20 1997 10:31)
@ Short Squeeze
Rumour has it that Soros the Great has sold $800m worth of 30 years' and bought same amount of gold futures contracts. I have noticed that the COMEX has less than 1m oz of gold in its inventory. If George wants to take delivery of the gold, it is obvious that there is not enough physical out there to pay him at the end of the month. This should set up a short squeeze situation, where the price of gold goes skyrocketing because of the lack of supply ( especially in this thin market ) . My question is, what is the mechanism of transfer if there is not enough gold in the inventories? How did the platinum contracts get resolved when there wasn't enough Pt to go around? Did the CB's or U.S. strategic stockpile release their metal to satisfy the demand of speculators who wanted their platinum immediately? Will the CB's sell or lend gold to help out the shorts in this case? Thanks in advance!


John N.
(Sun Jul 20 1997 10:46)
Retiarivs sed felix non

Golden pursuits for the elfish: SeaBus, Butchart's only if in Victoria ( pretty, clean, civilized city ) , Cypress Bowl Road for city view, shopping at Pacific Centre, tourist traps on Robsonstrasse, dine at the Timber Club or one of two revolving restaurants, harbour tour and dinner afloat, see the seamy side of Vancouver with a Sky Train ride to Surrey and back fare includes Sea Bus, catch "Spirit of Haida Gwai" at airport, Canada Stockwatch hq in Stock Exchange Tower, Placer Dome headquarters in Bental Centre!

Steve - Perth
(Sun Jul 20 1997 10:47)
If the Mexican currency collapse was known as the "tequila" effect, will the current currency problems be referred to in future as the "Asian Currency Stir Fry"?
DONALD: Would love to hear your outlook for the next 6 - 12 months. I'm sure you have some interesting views. Don't worry if you are off target a bit.

bb fisher
(Sun Jul 20 1997 10:47)
for anyones info there is a new data storage mechanism which is cheap very easy to use and is backwardly compatible with all A floppy drives. i know panasonic makes one and mitsumi as well. do a net search fro an LS-120Mb Floppy drive.

thats right this puppy is backwardly compatible ( it will read and write ) to all current floppy disks as well as the new media which holds 120Mb of data. this is fast, easy to use and sures beats a tape drive or to my mind a zip drive.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 10:47)
There's a stack of interesting URL's at this site

happy reading

(Sun Jul 20 1997 10:58)
Organ -- Regarding PA dislocation. 'They' gave everyone an extra thirty days to settle! Sort of like, "O.K. you can't pay me today, how about in thirty days?" Would this qualify as a 'market emergency'?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 11:04)
Fires- Treasury on high alert

(Sun Jul 20 1997 11:05)
@don't worry, be happy!
U.S. ready to handle stock dive!

Rubin says he isnt going!

O.K. See, there is no problem!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

(Sun Jul 20 1997 11:10)
cause and effect of currency devaluations
..first signs of the impact on US exports and contracts

Steve - Perth
(Sun Jul 20 1997 11:13)
Death of a Financier
From the Monday AM paper in Sydney...

(Sun Jul 20 1997 11:13)
gratia tuo, felix sum
John N. Thanks so much for the suggestions. I'm delighted.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 11:14)
Something of interest?

China: Daley to visit for deficit talks



By Mark Suzman in Washington


Mr William Daley, US commerce secretary, is to visit China to press for further opening of its domestic market for US exporters, in the light of the soaring bilateral trade deficit between the two countries.

His announcement yesterday followed the publication of figures showing the US trade deficit with China in May rose 9.1 per cent to $3.8bn, exceeding the closely watched deficit with Japan, which fell 25 per cent to $3.63bn.

The overall US trade deficit for the month rose 17 per cent to $10.23bn, fuelled by record imports and a small drop in exports of industrial machinery and telecommunications equipment.

The rise exceeded market expectations and reflected the continued US appetite for goods from abroad, with the biggest increases in imports coming in civilian aircraft, cars and industrial supplies.

Analysts warned that the drop in the Japanese deficit reflected a seasonal pattern and on a year-on-year basis it continued to increase.

However, Mr Daley said that while the rise in the Japanese deficit was "significantly slower" than the overall growth in US imports, the steady increase in the Chinese deficit was a bigger cause for concern.

He said he would meet Chinese officials in the autumn to discuss attempts to open their domestic market to outside companies in the context of the country's application to join the World Trade Organisation.

"China's economy has been growing at double-digit rates but its imports from the US and the rest of the world do not reflect that," he said.

Total imports for May stood at $87.5bn, up from $86.6bn in April, marking the seventh consecutive monthly rise. By contrast, exports dropped 0.8 per cent to $77.2bn as sales of capital goods, cars and food all fell.

However, economists stressed that the underlying trend in the deficit remained steady, and the unexpectedly big total partly reflected the continuing strength of the dollar.

"The weakness in exports should have been predictable based on how strong they were earlier this year," said Mr Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at HSBC Markets. "It doesn't mean the tide has turned."

Trade deficits with the US's two partners in the North American Free Trade Agreement ( Nafta ) also widened in May, with Canada's more than doubling to $1.74bn and Mexico's rising by 21.7 per cent to $1.7bn.

The overall trade surplus in services, a traditional US strength, rose 0.5 per cent to $6.81bn, as net exports for the sector in the first five months of 1997 rose to $34.3bn, up 9 per cent on the same period last year.

The trade surplus in agriculture also fell slightly to $1.06bn, down from $1.44bn in April. Exports dropped to $4.24bn, down from $4.5bn, as sales of soybeans, cotton and wheat all fell, while imports rose to $3.18bn from $3.01bn, reflecting increased purchases of coffee and rice.

 Copyright the Financial Times Limited 1997

"FT" and "Financial Times" are trademarks of The Financial Times Limited.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 11:14)
@you're kidding. :-)
"Loose the hounds of war and cry havoc!"

Let the finger pointing begin! So the banks did it! They thought the markets were to high? So they did something about it?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 11:18)
Be back later.....

(Sun Jul 20 1997 11:26)
But wait there's more!!!

Vanguard chief says equity markets too speculative:

Fresh attacks on key currencies and more to follow:

Steve - Perth
(Sun Jul 20 1997 11:35)
Australian CPI falls below 1%. Possibility of negative inflation, or deflation for first time in five years.
Have to laugh. We have a State Govt super fund that pays interest on suspended accounts at CPI + 1% p.a. Imagine a 1% p.a. return versus say 4% in cash elsewhere??? Yes, it is a shocking scheme. It was hard to explain that to the Public Servants during the late 80's. They did not believe that negative inflation could happen!! We get the last laugh again.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 11:41)
STEVE-PERTH: Asian Stir Fry?, I like that one. This site and questions like yours forces one to think things through. At this point I am thinking out loud..some points: 1. Countries will each act in what they piercieve to be their own best interest. 2. I see a trade war developing and countries are being forced to choose sides. 3. China will not be happy with a "Yen Bloc". The US will also not be happy with it for a different reason. 4. Then there is the "EMU Bloc" 5. I get the feeling that we are very rapidly drifting into chaos, massive re-alignments in stocks, currencies, metals, debtors and creditors all at exactly the same time. Any single one of these problems would cause a major distraction on its own, combined they are clearly not manageable by Mr. Rubin or any country. It was revealed by Taiwan only days ago that the US asked it to assist in the Mexican bailout in 1994. Taiwan says it refused. Now the US situation has deteriorated to the point that whatever it does can only make the situation worse.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Jul 20 1997 11:45)
Thanks Donald.
Article on Gold's Rise & Fall, Melbourne Age...Monday 21st July

(Sun Jul 20 1997 11:47)
@barbadoe ranch
John Disney re: Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 09:44 post.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 11:47)
IS 1929 BEING REPLAYED THIS YEAR? - by Guest Guru Ure
There is an uncannily similarity between the DOW from January 1920 to April 1930 AND TODAYS DOW track record. Avoid reading this study at your own peril - GUEST GURU URE:

(Sun Jul 20 1997 11:47)
Devaluation 101
....another article:

Steve - Perth
(Sun Jul 20 1997 11:52)
Gold's fate in US hands.... ( Read the last three paragraphs. Big sell off of IMF gold occurred between 1976 & 1980 ) Remember US$126 an ounce, chartists?????

(Sun Jul 20 1997 11:58)
Auroelf: @trendlines. ... I have yet to be convinced that great precision is required in positioning them. Minor violations of the trend are generally meaningless and a major trend change is apparent regardless of precise line position. Some would even draw trendlines as an ( eyeball ) average or mean overlayed on prices ( Jack Schwager as I recall ) .

BTW. Since you will be on Vanc. Island, consider some salmon fishing in Campbell River. Esthetically it is a little removed from the remainder of your itinerary but it is about the right time of year for the run of big King salmon. OTOH, it is equally pleasant to enjoy the salmon as the product of commercial effort. Over glass of wine with a view of beautiful BC.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:03)
Still a very volatile situation. The Serbs are none too happy about recent apprehensions of war criminals, and they could conceivably take up arms against UN and NATO troops until the arrests cease. Some Serbs are already throwing grenades -- and are being arrested for it, as happened last week when British troops were targeted. As required under the Dayton peace accords, the Brits turned over the grenade throwers to Serb police, who then quickly released them. Regardless of what the UN and NATO do, it seems that the US has only three choices: ( 1 ) leave next year on schedule, ( 2 ) stay on indefinitely, or ( 3 ) renegotiate the Dayton agreement. Each choice is loaded with risk. See

(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:12)
joe granville--

your recent comment pertaining to the common investor
and smart money ( if correct ) leads me to take the next
step. due to their newly acquired prescience, there should
no longer be a need for services such as the very one you
provide. maybe the smart money could use your help now, as
the return on your advice is hardly note-worthy. a recent
compendium of analysts, and their success/failure ratios,
had you almost dead last. please post your recommendations
here, they can be used as contrarian data. most analysts
who sell their recommendations, have abyssmal records. if
they were able to accurately predict markets, they would
be wealthy from TRADING the markets with their OWN money,
and would not have to sell a market-letter to generate an
income. please, post your analysis on a daily basis, as this
group will call you to task in a heart-beat.


you're on......


one of teds' seagulls with a load of soybeans should have landed
a couple of days ago.

squealch function?? a much better idea than mine. when do we get
the new toy? misery loves company, and the miserable can be "together,
forever!" ( marshall tucker ) this function effectively creates another
entire channel. the normal channel, and one for the wackers.


have you deserted your children? you came, adopted, and left in a hurry.


has there been any info on the up-coming el-nino and
its' expected impact on the farming regions? this
one is supposed to be the worst in 50 years. we
should begin to see its' impact this winter.


you made my day with your rj hiking his skirt comments. you are
an alter-ego of a regular, and one of my favorites!!!!! your reserved seat on the ssm awaits your arrival.

cherokee---!; ) seeker-of-the-signals, hacker-of-the-wackers-----

Steve - Perth
(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:14)
Russian exports to West of Primary Metals to continue/increase for foreseeable future...

(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:17)
STEVE-PERTH: They are clearly interested in social welfare and economic
efficiency, neither of which is enhanced by the Fed owning 262
million ounces of gold.

That snippet from The Age, Melbourne, seems wrong to me. If we lose the confidence of currency we lose everything. Do they want a return to barter? Do they really believe that currency chaos will improve social and economic efficiency? Whoever wrote that article knows nothing of history.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:17)
joe granville--

your recent comment pertaining to the common investor
and smart money ( if correct ) leads me to take the next
step. due to their newly acquired prescience, there should
no longer be a need for services such as the very one you
provide. maybe the smart money could use your help now, as
the return on your advice is hardly note-worthy. a recent
compendium of analysts, and their success/failure ratios,
had you almost dead last. please post your recommendations
here, they can be used as contrarian data. most analysts
who sell their recommendations, have abyssmal records. if
they were able to accurately predict markets, they would
be wealthy from TRADING the markets with their OWN money,
and would not have to sell a market-letter to generate an
income. please, post your analysis on a daily basis, as this
group will call you to task in a heart-beat.


you're on......


one of teds' seagulls with a load of soybeans should have landed
a couple of days ago.

squealch function?? a much better idea than mine. when do we get
the new toy? misery loves company, and the miserable can be "together,
forever!" ( marshall tucker ) this function effectively creates another
entire channel. the normal channel, and one for the wackers.


have you deserted your children? you came, adopted, and left in a hurry.


has there been any info on the up-coming el-nino and
its' expected impact on the farming regions? this
one is supposed to be the worst in 50 years. we
should begin to see its' impact this winter.


you made my day with your rj hiking his skirt comments. you are
an alter-ego of a regular, and one of my favorites!!!!! your reserved seat on the ssm awaits your arrival.

cherokee---!; ) seeker-of-the-signals, hacker-of-the-wackers-----

(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:18)
Donald ( 11:41 ) : You might have added that present and future turmoil is largely the result of abdication of our ( US ) responsibility as holder of the world's reserve currency. We have allowed our appetite to run unchecked. Used our position for personal gain at the expense of our neighbors and they know it. We are now witness to the end result.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:19)
"The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy"
Dr. Geoffrey P.Miller, Professor of Law and Director, Center for Study of Central Banks, New York University Law School - presents erudite and comprehensive study. SEE Editorials:

(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:25)
The article mentioned by Steve does not include the reports strange conclusion that gold would go to 309 if all gold sold. I do not think countries want to give up their gold which gives them a measure of independence and leverage against the dollar makers in WASH. China is not developing its mining industry so it can be shut down by a major gold sale dittos for Russia. Japan and SA will also not go along. If US acts alone bye bye dollar. Further with the risk of financial turmoil increasing the idea of gold sales is ridiculous. Once the crisis gets rolling talk of gold sales will turn into talk of gold buying. The CB anti-gold camp is sold out with the exception of the biggest debtor nation and reserve currency US.
Look what happened to the Aussie dollar after they sold their gold.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:27)
CHEROKEE: What? Bernatz the alter ego of ANYONE? Please...let it not be true.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:30)
EARL: If there is one universal belief among politicians of all parties, left, right, center, throughout the world, it is that depressions and recessions must be avoided at all costs. What they don't know is that the depression-recession is the politicians best friend. That it automatically does the dirty work for you. It makes the tough decisions via the market place that can't be made any other way. In the recent Russian example it took 72 years, 1917-1989. Russia will be better off in the long run. The market always wins. As John Exeter was fond of saying "the market is the master of us all"

Steve - Perth
(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:31)
Cherokee, this huge gif ( worth the wait ) shows the huge rise in sea temperature off the west coast of South America.
El Nino still coming strong. We're watering the lawns now in Perth, & it is the middle of our winter. The frosts have wiped out our feed lupins up at the farm north of Perth. Dad is not happy about that. This is unusual. We have not had continual frosts/zero-3 degrees minimums without a let up like this for years. If ever. Farmers in wheat belt are saying frosts are drying up the wheat crops. Most still will get A crop. But will need finishing spring rains. We will see.

George Cole
(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:33)
CB selling?
STEVE; Andy Smith and Ted Arnold should sue the author of that piece on the fate of gold for plagiarism. You would never know from reading it that the CBs as a group have sold very little gold on balance and that a number of CBs are buyers, Cheap CB gold loans are what has been killing the market.

The Fed has no say re: whether the U.S. buys or sells gold. That is up to Rubin's Treasury.

One of the dumbest articles re; gold I have ever seen. Wonder if the author is one of the many press assets of the American CIA. Or possibly on the payroll of some big gold shorts. I have never witnessed a more blatant attempt to instigate market panic.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:36)
DONALD: I am sure you are able to read through the spin in these articles. Am just posting them out of general interest. I must confess I tend to ignore some of the more ridiculous paragraphs, but prefer to keep paragraphs of interest within the context of the written article.
I haven't lost the faith. Do not worry.....

Richard Burke
(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:38)
On Gulf of Georgia
auroelf: welcome to BC. I can add a couple of things: dinner at the restaurant at the top of the Grouse Mountain Chair Lift; if this fantastic weather holds, rent a 16 ft. power boat at Sewells at Horseshoe Bay, pack a lunch, and spent a day or afternoon cruising around Bowen Island and vicinity; drive down to Crescent Beach and lie in the sun and walk out on the miles of sand bars ( water is clean unlike Vancouver beaches currently ) . You could also come over to Vancouver Island and go out to Long Beach on the Pacific Ocean - a truly great trip. Happy visiting.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:39)
Donald: Of course you're right. The market cleanses excess. Unfortunately, it also cleanses political office holders as well and therein lies the contradiction and source of economic/monetary distortion. Sooner or later the market does win but the consequences are so much worse. As I fear, we about to find out.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:40)
@George S. Cole
Dumb! HA! HA! HA! HA!!!! My sentiments exactly. But the good researcher must be able to handle the SPIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Our press is appalling. Packer & Murdoch control it anyway. Those two must have some interesting positions on gold!!

Steve - Perth
(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:48)
VANCOUVER: I agree, it is definitely worth doing the Grouse Mountain Chair Lift; if weather OK. Wife & I did trip there in 1993. City not that different to Perth as far as size & cleanliness. My brother visited some friends there two months ago. Uncle & Aunt used to live near Gibsons Landing ( Vancouver Island? ) where they used to make the old Canadian TV show "The Beachcombers". We enjoyed the steam train ride up along the river. Those chain saw entertainers are mean, with the log competitions etc. Only thing was, I couldn't handle the sun shining from the South, instead of the North, when I wanted to work out what time it was. A real worry to a farmer type who is used to working by the sun.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:52)
WW: You're right on the mark. CB gold dumping as threat or fact has run its course. From all appearances the numbers do not support the myth. The Australian experience has probably served to drive the final nail into that shiboleth. ........... The true damage done to mellow yellow, by the CBs has come largely as a result of their lending practices. Not as a result of sales. As the market begins to comprehend these things a bit better, in light of monetary matters, it will be interesting to see if their gold is returned with the same ease with which it was loaned.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:56)
DONALD: Surprise, surprise! Central Bankers from Asia - Pacific region just happened to arrange a meeting in Shanghai about concern over currency problems in the region. Obviously they had booked this meeting up months ago!! I bet. I wonder if Rubin shows up?? Probably be on a video hook up or something.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 12:58)
George Cole ( 12:33 ) : Sorry I didn't mean follow your tracks. Just missed the post. ..... but we are together almost word for word.

Ron Jett
(Sun Jul 20 1997 13:01)
To all, I invite all of you that care about these metals markets to visit my humble attempt to chart these markets. My data is good adn I double check before charting. My system might be different in terms of ma's but they are very effective and I've back tested them to 1987 on daily DJ and 1983 with the XAU. There is some excellent work being done on the metals - mine is just a free offering I hope will help us all to smile again as the stock buyers run wild and carefree.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Jul 20 1997 13:05)
The year of the great Aussie float...
Leigh Hall of AMP Society say he is concerned that there are now many
institutional fund managers who have NOT experienced the crash of 1987.
He should know. They lost A$4 BILLION in ONE day that year. I remember
seeing their ads in the paper boasting 100% return in ONE year. In Australia, the market went up a lot higher than the US, & hit a lot harder. Hence Aussie share investors are a little more aware of a looming crash than their Yankie counterparts.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 13:12)

That's rather monkey'ish for Perth weather,what are you an insomniac,way past your bedtime?

Got one of me ladies old drinkin mates coming up here next month,trouble is I don't reckon she can handle it anymore.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Jul 20 1997 13:18)
Giant Miner to set up in WA

Terry, am off to bed shortly. I don't have to get up that early. As I enjoy all the news feeds & commentary ( live ) , it helps gear me up for the next day's client interviews. I work at night a fair bit with my clients. ( after work etc ) .

(Sun Jul 20 1997 14:02)
Ron Jett: Your charts are excellent and Thank You. I have them bookmarked. Well done!

George Cole
(Sun Jul 20 1997 14:05)
Joe Granville
WW, Earl, and Steve: Looks like we are all on the same wavelength re: CB gold sales.

Cherokee: I too profoundly differ with Joe Granville re; the outlook for gold and stocks. Still, I do not like to see personal attacks on this forum from you, Hepcat, or anyone else. Rational debate should be the order of the day.

BTW, while Granville's long-term record leaves a lot to be desired, he has been quite good the past year or so. Very bullish on stocks and very bearish on gold. Many of us would be better off today if we had followed his advice.

I suspect things will be quite different the next 12 months. But we must give credit where credit is due.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 14:11)
Steve - Perth: Your map of the El Nino effect of water temps is outstanding and the economic implications of this are awesome! Thanks.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 14:18)
STEVE-PERTH: Re the bankers meeting. That was one of my public forecasts last week this time. I had predicted that Japan would host it though. Can I get a B+ for that one?

Scott Ginn
(Sun Jul 20 1997 14:19)
What is the word on the street @ Gold mining Co? Understand that Newmont reached an all time low prdouction cash cost of 195/oz. Most Gold companies that mine in North America can produce gold in the High 200 range. Imagine if gold got much lower then $318 for extended period of time gold mining co's w/bad hedges would shutdown.

Ron Jett
(Sun Jul 20 1997 14:30)
Goldbug23, thankyou for the kid words of support. I hope all of us here that have metal interest - get to have the last hoot. We are only a few now as everyone seems to have jumped ship.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 14:33)
RJ: Are you here? I want to complement you on the way you took care of KGB. That was awesome. You are going to be one of the survivors.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 14:49)
China issues warning on currency trading rules. I posted this yesterday. The re-post is for those who missed it. I think that it is important and hides a deeper, undeclared meaning. Use scroll to find "Business"

(Sun Jul 20 1997 15:16)
Comment and joke of the day
I find it difficult to understand why a central bank with owners who no doubt realize that people have been killing people over gold since Adam was kicked out of the Garden of Eden would sell a commodity whose value is tried and tested and has stood the test of time for the American dollar or debt instruments. No paper money or paper investment ( other than the purchase of a Bible ) has stood the test of time--The paper is no better than the integrity of the government behind it. One must step back and ask--How much entegrity is behind the USA dollar and its promise to repay debt? Not a lot; I think we have been experiencing a case of pure dumb luck with this administration. I think the dice are about to shake economic craps. Now for the joke:

There where 3 nuns on a train. The talk lagged and they were bored with speaking of spiritual matters. They mutually decided that they would feel a lot better were they to confess their sins to each other, knowing that confession is good for the soul and knowing that they were equals and thus could bear the brunt of the confession.

The first nun got up and said, "My greatest sin is sex. Every year I go out for a week and become a prostitute. Of couse I put all the money I earn in the poor box but that is my greatest sin."

The second nun got up and said, "My greatest sin is drinking. Every year I take the money out of the poor box and drink for one consecutive week."

The third nun was sitting there being very quite. The other nuns said, "Come now, we told you our worst sins, what is yours."

The third nun got up and said, "My greatest sin is that I am a terrible gossip and I can't wait to get off this train!"

(Sun Jul 20 1997 15:27)
george cole--

granville should be riducled for his performance, or
more accurately, non-performance! he deserves to be
hammered by all. what is the motive of granville for
suddenly appearing on a gold channel, and gracing that
same group with his opinion? HIS agenda, and the pursuit
of same. what does he do for a living?? why suddenly appear
here? he is in a bind due to selling gold down the tubes, and
is now trying to TALK the market higher to keep himself solvent.
barking is one thing, biting is another. he should allude to his
investment record, for the record, and let the chips fall where they
may. there are a lot of folks who know nothing of these "gurus"
other than name identification. knowledge is power, and to know
of, and about granville, em-powers one to stay the hell away from
ANY advice he has to offer! if the tone is negative, consider his
advice and motives for posting here, at this juncture in history----

never look a gift horse in the mouth--right??---look at the other end!

is this an attack?? no.....just stating his record, and questioning
his motives.

george, i ask you, why here and now; when gold is just beginning
to rally from 13 year lows? why? please humor me and thoughtfully
consider and answer as to his possible motives.

ted, earl, auric, eldo, moonman, rj, billd, steve-perth, geff,
viessere, oldman, vronsky, bart, any and all ------why? why now?

cherokee!; ) seeker-of-the-truth, curator-of-the-smoke-signals, imm---

(Sun Jul 20 1997 15:27)
Eric Blair - aka George Orwell...??
It was a bright cold day in April and the clocks were striking thirteen...



Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 20 1997 15:33)
never met a chart I didn't like
RON JETT: Thanks for the charts. Have bookmarked them as well. Strange as this sounds, technically speaking ( and legalistically, I admit ) the XAU is in a bull market! The correction from the top since the leg up from the '93 lows is actually quite in line with a reasonable pullback. If this is some sort of bottom for gold as we cyberspeak, then the next leg up may be the third in a wave count of 5. I am not a strict Elliot waver, nor a strict anything ( except for Percivillian Metaphysics ) , but the CASE can be made... If so, what does such a divergence between blue chip gold stock prices and bullion mean? Is this the confirmation of a manipulated ( artificially depressed ) gold market? If so, why also silver? Are the stocks merely conforming to the bouyancy of a general bull market in all shares? Is my martini cold yet?

bb fisher
(Sun Jul 20 1997 15:43)
this and the following post contain 2 very long term dow jones 30 studies with commentary. i hope you find them useful

bb fisher
(Sun Jul 20 1997 15:44)
2@of 2
it would be lovely if we could designate more than one chart per post

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 20 1997 15:44)
@the warrior
CHEROKEE: You raise puzzling issues concerning motives, agendas, and, most befuddling of all, identities. As for agendas, I suppose we all have them, though most of us believe we believe in what we are saying for the truth of it, even if we fall on our faces the next day. I try to, and I think you are so motivated as well. Perhaps most people do in their own way. As for tricky, slimy motives of manipulation, profit and greed, well, you pays yer money an' you takes yer chance. If Alan Greenspan himself made a statement, these days I would want to question his motives. This is a very thorny issue. It's hard enuf to understand a person when I'm staring at their naked horoscope, let alone judge their motives. Not that you may not have a point. As for identity, I ask how do we KNOW that WAS Joe Granville. Although WHY anyone would want anyone to think THEY were Joe Granville boggles my mind. But what is to prevent anyone from posting under any name? If "Bill Clinton" posted here, perhaps we might need to enlist Paula Jones to identify him by that unusual mark on his email how do we know this is Mike Sheller? Or that it isn't Earl masquerading as Mike. Although why anyone would want to...

George Soros
(Sun Jul 20 1997 15:46)
Mike Sheller: That's the most lucid thing I've EVER heard you say. Now what do you see happening to my Jupiter this week?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 15:52)
Can anyone confirm an upcoming ( this week ) currency crisis meeting in Shanghai as mentioned by STEVE-Perth?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 15:55)
@ Short Squeeze
Panda mentioned that "they" ( Comex people? ) extended the terms on the Pt delivery. When is the 30 day period up? Who is actually on the hook for the metal -- is it Comex, or the shorts, or the lendees? What happens if the metal is still not available -- can the people responsible just default?

Still nobody has answered my questions with respect to gold, i.e. what happens when the long speculators want to take delivery of the metal, but there is not enough physical metal available at the exchange to pay it. Will the CB's sell or lend the gold to make the shortfall? Can the terms be extended to 30 days in the gold market? On what day is the August contract actually settled?

Thanks for answering -- I really need to know this info if I am going to take a long position next week.

- Organ

Alan Greenspan
(Sun Jul 20 1997 15:57)
@The Fed

George Soros: Don't take physical delivery of bullion. Pretty please?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 16:00)
Cherokee @Granville: Maybe he happened to be in the neighborhood. ..... In point of fact, he only belatedly recognized the bubble for what it was and is. Having now done so and having leaped upon the Guru train once again, his predictions for the ultimate top are no more valid than mine. I haven't clue and neither does he or anyone else for that matter. ..... I would be more concerned should he suddenly become a goldbug again.

Joseph Granville
(Sun Jul 20 1997 16:01)
What a bunch of jerks!

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 20 1997 16:03)
@BB, the King!
BB FISHER: Your chart of the stock market has made me dizzy. Let me sit down for a moment and stop this nosebleed. It appears, from my view, that a trendline roughly supporting the liftoff from the early 80's bisects the top channel line at the end of this year ( '97 ) . I have found that major bisections often indicate significant tops or bottoms in the future. Looking at that rise of the last couple years reminds me of a popped-up baseball. When I was a kid, with my first serious bow and arrows, I went into a huge open meadow and shot a field-tipped arrow straight up into the sky. I was thrilled at how far it soared, until it diappeared from view. Then my scalp crawled as I realized that at some point that arrow would cease rising and fall back on its path, point first, toward the earth. And my little head. The relief I felt when that arrow buried itself into the ground a number of yards away cannot be described. I think right about now "blue chip" mutual fund holders should be feeling the way I felt when the arrow disappeared.

Pizza Man
(Sun Jul 20 1997 16:19)
Can anyone tell me where I can get real time quotes for ( September )
S&P future contracts. I have been using DBC to watch the index
but that only kicks in as of 9:30AM. Also any suggestions for using a
subscription type service using FM signal etc. Thank You in advance for
any feedback.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 16:21)
Getting AP Breaking News
Here's another way to access breaking news on the AP newswire. No fancy interface or anything -- just the facts ma'am.

You have to hit the RELOAD button every once in a while to see the latest story.

If you are speculating in oil and gas, be sure to read the story about breakthroughs in turning natural gas in Prudhoe Bay into liquid crude. It *probably* won't affect your current positions, but watch out in the future. For some reason, as often happens with the wire, the story is broken into two parts, the second part immediately below the first.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 16:28)
mike sheller--

excellent analogy of the arrow in the sky vs. pie in the sky!

hi joe! i love ya man, keep on keepin on!!

chaos has lowered the boom on the gold shorts, now it's time for flux
to add luster to the equation. better hang-on, this is the week
that the short sellers of gold realize things are different, and
they are on the wrong side of the fence.

the pendulum has made its' first cut, and the sleepwalkers cannot
see they are missing an appendage. as the final cut is made, only then
will the somnambulists awaken as they begin the longest sleep of all.
not to worry, the gov't can, and is ready, to take the biggest bite of all!! the freedom bite.

cherokee!; )

(Sun Jul 20 1997 16:31)
Organ -- You'll have to scroll back a few weeks to see the stories on PA/PL. A better idea may be to search the archives of and look for palladium or platinum stories. Who was extending loans, or whatever they call them, to whom should be in those articles

(Sun Jul 20 1997 16:39)
Humus,pita bread,and carrots for dinner....NO martini's...Cherokee: I echo what Earl said....if that IS Joe baby I'd be much more concerned if he went bullish on gold...Many years ago A friend took on Joe baby as his guru and he lost his have many! but buyer beware and take responsibility for yourself...what a couple Joe baby+Elaine Garzerelli would make....

(Sun Jul 20 1997 16:42)
bb fisher -- I can give you a good reason for the rise in the markets, or at least, why they should have risen. The simple answer was the 'fall of Communism'. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that this rise is not of epochal proportions, as well as over done. It would make sense that markets are rising to adjust for so many NEW customers, greater demand for products, etc. The problem is, their standard of living and disparate monetary systems. What is a Ruble really worth? The same goes for all the other East Block countries. Their currencies were worth whatever the heads of state and Moscow, said that they were worth. After all, didn't the U.S.S.R. say the exchange rate for the Ruble was two Rubles to the Dollar, pre-collapse? As for the rise in the equities, well..... I do have a hard hat around here somewhere!

(Sun Jul 20 1997 16:42)
re Steve Perth posting of emergency meeting
I had posted this earlier, re : US Treasury on High Alert,
the following is a quote from that article, ( South China morning post )
Currency volatility is expected to be foremost on the agenda when central bankers from 11 Asian countries gather for a one-day closed door meeting in Shanghai next Friday.

The second annual meeting of East Asia and Pacific Central Banks has raised hopes of stronger co-operation between members to stem further currency chaos.
Full article may be found

(Sun Jul 20 1997 16:44)
ALL: Read Pomboy's Letter-to-the-Editor in Barron's. Also, on gold's bullish side -- the latest Committment-of-Traders report shows a huge short-position by speculators. It appears that the shorts began to run for cover late last week. If gold rallies a little further, most of these technical traders will get stopped out, then watch gold explode to the upside!!

(Sun Jul 20 1997 16:46)
BB Fisher and Mike Sheller: One aspect of charting that is not discussed enough is the differences that show up depending on whether arithmetic scale or logarthmic is used. For a long term chart such as the one you have shown us, BB, I submit that a logarthmic scale would be more appropriate. The change in trend channels might still be there, but would not be so dramatic.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 17:00)
Pizza Man -- $$$$ Real time quotes will cost you. It depends on who you use as a data provider. BMI and DBC are really the same outfit. I understand that BMI is supposed to be cheaper than DBC. You'll have to check that out for the types of data that you're looking for.

As an example, if you want stock quotes, DBC charges based on the exchange involved. So, if you want AMEX, NADAQ, NYSE listings you will pay an exchange fee for each of the above plus the data providers fee. Options data comes from OPRA, Options Reporting Authority. A separate fee here. Futures gets interesting. There are different exchanges and the exchange fees are higher than for stock data. Again, you'll have to inquire at each data provider as to their fee schedual and price structure. If you're only interested in the spoo's ( SPX ) , then you can get by with the $PREM quote from DBC. They include this with the indexes, which are freebies. The $PREM is the current SPX futures quote over the SPX cash quote. Just add the two together and you should be pretty close to the futures price. If you need better than that, you'll have to subscribe to a futures quote service. Hope I helped, and didn't confuse you. BTW, a class action suit was filled against DBC for not providing Real Time Data. It seems they drop ticks ( YES THEY DO! ) due to their distribution system not being able to handle the increased trading going on! They are supposed to have this remedied by early 1998. Until then, was that the right quote?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 17:07)
All this deflationary talk scares the sh#t out of me.....Anybody else ??

(Sun Jul 20 1997 17:19)
@Some Important facts about Gold Production and mine profitability
Since the price of Gold has sunk below the cash cost of producing Gold for maybee 60% of the worlds Gold mines, arguably Gold may have a difficult time to go ( and stay ) much lower. Some of the top Gold producers have protected themselves with large hedge positions and have low cash costs of producing Gold.
IF we use the BREAK-EVEN* cost and not the cash cost, it paints a completely different picture.
*BREAK-EVEN includes: cash, depreciation, depletion, amortization, general expenses, administration, exploration, interest and all other costs.
When this is used, the picture is a lot less rosier for mining companies.
Barrick: Hedged at 420. / Cash cost 189. / but Break-even 326.
Newmont: Hedged at 418. / Cash cost 210. / but Break-even 345.
Placer Dome: Hedged at 448. / Cash cost 225. / but Break-even 416.

Other Miners are actually losing money at BREAK-EVEN -

Amax Gold: Hedged at 370. / Cash cost 240. / but Break-even 432.
Royal Oak: Hedged at 395. / Cash cost 325. / but Break-even 410.

To make matters worse for these companies, the high hedge positions cannot be extended if Gold stays at these low levels, making the balance sheet even worse in the near future.

My point is the same as i've mentioned before, if the current price of Gold ( or lower ) is maintained, the CB's will have to supply the market in a big way, since mine production will plummet.
Eventually of course the CB vaults will be empty, and the natural laws of supply and demand will take over big time.

( Data Source was GLOBE & MAIL ) .

(Sun Jul 20 1997 17:19)

When a country accepts help from the IMF, they also pay the piper. They become junior members of the NWO and must follow its directives - or else.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 17:25)
Organ at 15:55 wanted an answer as to what would happen if the
Comex can not or will not? deliver the gold or any other metal
metal contracted for.
Well you can sue, the same as under any contract dispute and hope
the Court finds in your favour. In which case you claim damages.
You will get paid in PAPER DOLLARS,- still no GOLD Bullion.
In other words, non delivery of physical gold or metal as you
desired or hoped for under a contract has no bearing at the
price of the metal. The value of the damages, in case of default are
always listed in legal tender, which in the U.S.A. is Dollars.

yare n

(Sun Jul 20 1997 17:30)
Orcas Island, too
Richard Bourke, Earl: Thanks for your recommendations, also.
Orcas Island is also on our itinerary. Any suggestions there?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 17:42)
global markets
interest read from Martha Eden, VP,Hanseatic Corporation ,forecasting a "cataclysmic event of global proportions is certainly due to take its toll no matter how benign the economic environment is."
in the next year or two

Hanseatic Corporation
Global Market Strategist Advisory Service
18 July 1997

Investor's Business Daily published a front-page article this week entitled "Is Deflation the
Real Threat? Fed May Be 'Behind the Curve' on Falling Prices"--marking the first prominent
mainstream financial press recognition of this ever more possible scenario. There are still Fed
members and analysts and politicians of various stripes who do not believe inflation is
quiescent, however as each new number reinforces the case, the reality of falling prices and the
need for lower interest rates will sink in. Disinflation is quickly turning into deflation as central
banks and governments all toe the line with relatively tight monetary and fiscal policies. This is
an incredibly benign atmosphere for bonds and stocks, and one that will defy description and
prediction by use of outmoded Keynesian style yardsticks, traditional P/E and earnings quality
measures, or "peak capacity" measures. Productivity will likely show moves no one thought
was possible. As the dollar grows stronger on world forex markets, and grows more valuable
at home by way of deflation, each dollar earned by each American company operating
anywhere in the world represents dearer value than has existed for many, many decades.
Traditional arbitrary P/E limitations grow increasingly irrelevant in such an atmosphere.

This is not to say that all is perfectly well worldwide with financial markets. The currency
devaluations sparked by the recently floated Thai baht and spreading quickly to some of the
world's highest growth Asian economies will take a toll on investor confidence in that part of
the world, and could well spill over into Latin American markets. Confidence in any of these
markets could dissipate very quickly and turn a mere correction into a devastating decline
which could eventually envelop all global markets much as the 1987 Dow crash did. We do
not see such an event undermining markets yet but some time in the next year or two, a
cataclysmic event of global proportions is certainly due to take its toll no matter how benign the
economic environment is.

The dollar has looked hard at 1.80 DM but seems willing to back off. There is not a great deal
of fundamental justification for the dollar to go much higher, but it now appears equally unlikely
to give up alot of ground in the very near term. Longer term we could see a sharp correction,
but time and sentiment are not quite right for that yet.

Martha Eden

Hanseatic Corporation 5600 Wyoming NE Ste 220

Pizza Man
(Sun Jul 20 1997 17:57)
Thanks Panda
Panda: Thanks for taking the time to answer my post. Hopefully my Long
Positions in GOLD keep going the right direction, and with any luck
I can catch some short action on the S&P. I am no chartist but I feel
we are at a similar position of 4/22/93 for gold.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 18:07)

Cherokee: Perhaps we can invite Mr. Granville to the Kitco Bash and pay for all his expenses. We could then claim that as a "charitable deduction"!

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 20 1997 18:16)
Alas, fine Auric, we knew him (Joe)
AURIC: Most charitable of you. Of us? Who knows. Very funny.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 18:17)
Auroelf: Can't help you with Orcas Island. Never been there. ...... Out of curiousity; isn't it one of the San Juan Islands and in the US? ..... Whether it is or not, that entire area is lovely. A place to gorge yourself on seafood --- as long as you're not allergic to shellfish ( iodine ) .

(Sun Jul 20 1997 18:24)
NAILZ: Deflation scares me too, even though I prepared for it awhile ago. There are things that are beyond your personal control. Such as, how well did your employer invest your pension? Even if you are not a debtor, only a creditor, you need to be worried. Can those who owe you pay? The best money manager in the business will be hurt by deflation.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 18:26)
BB Fisher: In response to your second DOW chart I wanted to post a long term bond chart which coincides nicely with the DOW rise beginning in 1985. Alas, the software ( DOS based ) experienced a glitch on boot up and will not respond beyond opening banner. ........ Suffice to say, 1985 was the beginning of the paper revolution and the notion that instruments are truly more valuable than stuff. ..... BTW, what year was Alan Greenspan installed as fed chairman???

(Sun Jul 20 1997 18:30)
Auroelf: there is an article entitled "Ferry Tales" in the July issue of Sunset Magazine ( US ) : "An Insider's Guide to smooth summer sailings in and around Puget Sound and Canada's Strait of Georgia." Orcas Island is featured, but ferry schedules and telephone numbers are provided for the entire crossborder area from Seattle to extreme southern Alaska.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 18:31)
MIKE: I noticed that very painful limp right after the knee surgery.
Coulda' been some kinda cosmetic on that e-mail address, too.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 18:34)
Donald/Nailz @deflation: Reminded me of a lyric from an old tune of little note beyond the present: "After you've eaten steak for awhile; beans - beans they taste fine". .... How's Campbells doing???? ( :- )

KGB "Amerika Field Zell #102"
(Sun Jul 20 1997 18:36)
Ve speak softly

Ve the KGB's of "Amerika Field Operationzs" read the RJ life short story ov 02:29 - Not Moscow Time.
Ve kom konklusion RJ is "Kapilalist Gorilla" who vant starring role in kapitalist film drama ov Platinum Broker dat lose his money ven KGB take the Platinum bak to homeland.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 18:39)

Can you name just one single item, other than silicon based products, and a few raw commodities, whose price measured in global currency terms, is down over the last five years.

How does one have a deflation where money supply is growing far faster than nominal growth? Someone reported here recently that broad money supply is growing at an annual rate of 9.2%. In Britain the same measure is now over 11.2%. I strongly urge you to do some reading at the Bureau of Labor Statistics Web page ( whore URL escapes me at the moment ) . The numbers which are published purporting to measure inflation are complete and total Bull*&*%. Every series which is measured, has a built in deflator which attempts to adjust prices downward due to 'quality' improvements, regardless whether or not they exist. For example, housing prices are adjusted downwards because it is assumed that houses are getting bigger and are built better. Since we are currently looking around at houses I can assure you that at least here in southern Connecticut this is complete nonsense. Houses built in the last 20 years are cheap woodframe construction with sheetrock walls, hollowcore doors, where you could hear a cat piss from four rooms away. The house we are currently bidding on was built around the turn of the century, is made largely of stone, has 6 inch thick plaster walls, red oak for all the door and window framing, hardwood floors, high ceilings and 100 year old trees. If we tried to build this house today it would cost perhaps twice its current market price, if you could find anyone who could actually do the work.

Are we going to get a deflation from a collapse in the financial markets? It is conceivable. Will we get one from 'tight' monetary and fiscal policy? No way. When reading all the 'deflationary' commentary just remember that the number one job of the governments' is to manage their respective piles of debt. The only way to do this is to attract fools to lend money to their cause. The way to do this is to print bogus stastistics and reel in the fish. Don't get hooked.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 18:40)
Gold & Silver Future Assayed by Visionary Mining Executive
The Astrological Investor interviews unusual energy & mining industry entrepreneur. It's north to Alaska, and who knows where else, with businessman/astrologer Chad C. Meek. SEE Astrological Investor:

(Sun Jul 20 1997 18:43)
KGB: LOL! Either you're taking lessons from Bernatz or Bernatz is taking on multiple personalities. In either case, RJ has to scratch some gravel to catch up.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 18:58)
D.A.: In mid year 1930 absolutely no one expected deflation. All the government officials and business people were predicting good times immediately ahead, and that was 9 months AFTER the stock market crash of 1929. There was absolutely no warning but deflation hit like a thunderbolt. After 1929 a lot of very smart people bought on the dip and were wiped out after April, 1930, when the real damage was done. By 1931 there was 25% unemployment, another 25% were luckily only part-timed. The deflation was caused by the inability of millions to pay their debts. I don't expect that history will repeat exactly, actually it could be much worse because now EVERYONE is counting on inflation to pay off their bills with inflated dollars. They have subconciously included it into their financial planning. It isn't going to work that way. After the deflation, when its too late, that is the most likely time to expect the increase in the money supply and the seed of inflation for the next generation.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:08)
Donald: D.A. has it right. Deflation ( in prices ) started in 1920 after the treemendoius war increases, gained momentum in 1925 ( in agriculture and land ) , and became obvious to one and all ( even in Wall Street ) in 1930. Our fear of deflation now is akin to the fear of it in 1946. But it's done and over with as it was then.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:09)
treemenduois= tremendous in aurospeak...: )

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:10)
Pow wow
Cherokee: Oh eye of the eagle, wisdom of the owl, hunter of truth, your raven stopped at my teepee, I heard the tom-toms, I saw the smoke - they told me you are troubled and I come in spirit to Pow-wow in your smoke-mobile ... with peace pipe in hand.

Who is this white devil named Granville who troubles you so, have you not wisely told us in many posts that things are not always what they seem to be. If he is truly the one that moved markets with his pronouncements and was worshipped as the god of analysts, the former bear of bears, the one who grandly trumpeted an imminent stock market crash based on everything he ever learned only to quickly thereafter become miraculously transformed into a born-again bull when it did not happen - then his untimely appearance here may be merely for some sought-after recognition as a former false god that he once again longs to be and is so elusive to mere mortals as Elane G and others have found out before and after him.

Analysts thrive for the reasons you taught us. A person often believes that another knows more than what he actually does know; and many are looking for that "analyst god" to show them the market path for earthly riches. But ironically, it is only when one gains sufficient knowledge of the market to find the path on his own that he can determine the wisdom of following a path led by another.

So do not be troubled Kimasabe, if it is truly Granville, his words have only a message to those who wish to believe it, and as that great white spirit would put it, this forum is merely a stage where we are all playing a part, including the fools among us.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:15)
D.A. -- I'm an inflationist at heart. I believe we've had the deflation during the eighties. Now comes the inflation! I agree with you whole heartedly on the numbers game. The idea here, I think, is to scare some investors about deflationary trends. Convince them that we need SOME inflation to save their collective a**es. Then when the numbers become so BOGUS that no one is fooled, investors won't mind 'a little' inflation. By then, it will be way too late! The currency turmoil is indicative of a trade war by, 'other means'. The inflation numbers have been held low because of CHEAP imports due to a rising Dollar. This is going to change. It will be a mess, up, down, and every direction in between. The one thing that should come out of this is.... bright, shiny, and yellow, is that gold is the standard.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:16)
Gentleman, I said that I wont read or reply to any more posts related
to John Hepcat but the flow wont stop. If I have anything to say about
it - I am in "no-censorship" camp but I would strongly recommend to
ignore any annoying posts from him or similarly annoying counterattacks
from others. I actively participate in many professional ( yeah, still
making my living through regular job ) or forums related to outdoors.
There is always some individual who becomes very disruptive, annoying,
and offensive to other participants. Unfortunately some people
leave when the disruption factor outweighs the benefits.

John is an example of this behavior. Not because of his ideas but
because of his presentation ( e.g., disrespectful, belittlements,
personal insults. ) Unfortunately, this invokes ( in many cases ) the
similar reaction from other participants. There are some good
netiquette sites on Internet and John violates many of listed netiquette
rules ( e.g., dont post things which offend other forum participants, do
not make personal attacks, do not flame, ... )

If the case when forum is not moderated, the best approach is to ignore
such posts and individuals. They will eventually change their tone or,
when they can not draw any more attention, leave the forum. This is my
last waste of forum space on this issue and if anybody wants to respond,
or flame me, take it off line - this time I included my real address.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:18)
Is this the same J.Granville aka bear of the low in 1987 Granville. Gotta luv im. off to nyc in the am be at nymex for lunch,

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:19)
Hey Ted Advise from the stars-Looks like the time to sell that ABX & Placer.Ugg. The game is about to be done.Remember it's all a game the winner is long term,but not this term.Happy Trails P.S.Sell into strength.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:24)
FWIW -- Japan closed tonight for holiday.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:25)
AUROPHILE: I do not agree. I think you are confusing cash dollars with credit dollars. Credit expansion ended in 1928 when lenders began to be concerned about the ability of debtors to pay. Today an identical situation can be found with recent problems at Citicorp, Advanta, Mercury Finance, Jayhawk Finance and others as concerns are raised about the ability of borrowers to pay. Unquestionably the Fed has the authority and the ability to print cash dollars. They do not have a way to get those dollars into the hands of the debtors who are hungry for them. That is the job of your local banker. Your local banker is becoming increasingly reluctant to extend those dollars even at 20% rates. If he, or she, loses the bank to the FDIC there goes the country club membership, the college education for the kids, all the prestige associated with being a banker. They saw what happened after the S&L fiasco and those bankers who are still in business have already made the move to restrict credit to the needy.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:33)
Well that was quick! Early vote of no confidence on the Globex.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:33)
Vronsky-I love you as a persona but please face reality Gold has only one place to go this year and that is DOWN DOWN DOWN after a little tiny rally.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:36)
Poorboys -- Are you basing your conclusion on the current trend, or are there other indicators/fundamentals that you are using?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:36)

If the money supply is expanding faster than nomincal GDP how is it possible to have deflation unless everyone is taking their money and putting it under the mattress. Since the national savings rate is also declining I submit that the mattress theory doesn't cut it.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:43)

In addition to the no confidence vote in the SPU's it looks like the greenback is also under a bit of pressure. This will be good for stuff.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:43)
Bart's Solid Gold Travel Service
Aurophile: Thanks, from your half-namesake.

Earl: Yes, Orcas is one of the US San Juan Islands. Greenspan was installed in 1987. I seem to recall that one of a hundred or so reasons given after the fact for the Crash of '87 was that the new Fed chairman Greenspan had to show the markets he was tough by raising rates, as Wall Street didn't think he could handle the job as well as Paul Volker had.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:45)
Pilot program at the CME for those interested in receiving free realtime quotes. Go to
You will need latest version of Microsoft Explorer though. Details at the site.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:46)

Just cracked the 4th beer on an empty stomach, so I apologize in advance for not following the deflation/inflation thread and your last comments. Have you decamped the deflation scene??? ..... If true it seems to me that this has come full circle and we are now where I always figured it would be. That is; at the first whiff of deflation the fed would pull out all stops and print money to head off deflation. It is, after all, the only immediate remaining lever it has at its disposal.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:50)
D.A. -- SPU7 was down 450 about twenty minutes ago. And some say that the Nasdaq is the wild wild west! :- ) )

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:51)
Panda-Yes on my own charts and Astrological findings and a touch of common sense.I will ad to this the reality of the new age mechanics.Paper= Paper .Gold is and will be worthless in the new WORLD ORDER.I would guess 1999.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 19:53)
D.A. Cash dollars stay on the scene. They remain a permanent part of the monetary base. Credit dollars disappear on the way down just as quickly as they appeared on the way up. I cite as evidence the surge in personal bankruptcies. If you go bankrupt and stiff Sears for $1,000 that money just gets deleted out of the computer. That is all it ever was in the first place. It never was printed by the Fed. It shows up in M2 and M3 as a $1,000 decrease.

I think I am guilty of explaining this as purely an American phenomenen. It is worldwide. It is absolutely outside the control of the Fed. In 1928 conservative bankers began to withhold credit from people who still wanted to play high finance get rich quick games. In 1997 conservative bankers are doing exactly the same thing. The absolute proof that they are doing it is the current bankruptcy rate. The result will be a stock market crash and the eventual disruption of the entire financial system.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:00)
Earl: fer christ sakes eat something while you drink!...BBL....

(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:07)
Panda/D.A. and I think Aurophile:

Inflation is definitely the direction of least resistance ... BUT Donald has very interesting point. Dollars created are not the same as dollars made available to alleviate the suffering of poor debtors and stabilize a fractured system. Is not Japan a recent case in point??? They have been pushing on a string in their efforts to mitigate their situation with easy money.

In the end, the problems confronting debtors are not solved with the assumption of additional debt. Pumping money only delays the inevitable clearing action of the market. And the concommitent pain.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:08)
Ted: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Stuff it. .... ( :- ) )

(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:10)

I agree, the lost money will show up as a decline in the monetary aggregates. Yet these very same aggregates are increasing at rapid rates. While I do not disagree that the bankruptcy rate is increasing, it must not be outdistancing the other money creating activities in the society. BTW, in the latest quarter I believe that the writedowns for bad credit decreased at the major money center banks.

As for this being a worldwide phenomena, we presently have the strongest currency. Inflation in the rest of the world is doing quite nicely. What would you call the price increases that are going to be felt by all the folks inhabiting those Southeast Asian countries that are having thier currencies hammered?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:13)
Poorboys ( 19:33 ) : Bite yer tongue. ( :- ) )

(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:15)
TED: Please let Earl get another beer, I finally got someone to lean a little bit my way. Dont't screw it up now!

(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:18)
I have $1000

I will invest my $1000 in a mutual fund. I will receive an compounded annaul return of 25% over the next 40 years.
When I retire, I will have about $7 1/2 million.
In the mean time I will raise hell and be a real hep-cat and give you goldbugs hell. SO THERE, I SAID IT.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:18)
@theBank in Australia
Morning Boys: Market is dropping like a lead balloon here today on open. Could be interesting today, what do you think? Gold seems to be following the trend also.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:19)

Earl, if I had four beers on an empty or full stomach, it is inconceivable that I could think, let alone type. I am very impressed.

Since Japan had the strongest GDP growth ( 3.6% ) of all G7 nations last year and is well on their way to another good year it would appear that their massive monetary stimulus is finding its way to the bottom line.

Deflation occurs when debtors can not repay their debts, default and have their assets liquidated. This mass liquidation of assets causes price declines and further defaults as asset values are trimmed. While it is true that there is a massive amount of debt out there that can not be repayed, there will be no deflation because the major debtors also control the terms of the repayment. If you were in debt in a big way but also had a money printing machine in the basement, do you think you would ever default?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:27)
Earl Earl:

Off off to to watch watch some some baseball. Be Be back back later later.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:33)
Scott: Must be related to the ongoing currency problems in Asia/Pacific?
I don't think we have seen the worst of it yet, but the IMF will step in in a big way if required. Philippines already been to the IMF piggy bank.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:34)
D.A.: That is a valid point. There are still increases in the M's. But it is the RATE OF INCREASE that is not being sustained. Just as the junkie needs a larger dose to achieve the previous high. The credit system needs an increasingly greater rate of growth to meet the next quarter reporting bogey. Friday we had a perfect example. Microsoft exceeded the street number by 1 cent. Because it failed to meet the "whisper" number it tanked 9 bucks. Social Security provides a reverse example. We need more working people to pay those who are eligible to receive benefits. A dip in the birth rate, the same dip that rippled through the school systems of America, will tank Social Security. There are certainly more Americans than in 1937 when SS started. It is the rate of growth that has declined and will cause the problem. Ponzi ran out of customers once again.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:38)
Major Credit Cards Covered

If I purchase something with a major credit card I am sure that the merchant is paid relatively fast. Both the major card issuers as well as the merchant card issuers are covered by high rates of interest on their plastic, which probably??? covers defaults.
On the other hand, if the default rate goes so high that the high rates do not cover the issuers; the fed may be forced to increase the M's, just like they did over the last 4 weeks. Hmmm???????

(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:39)
Deflation happens when aggregate demand declines and lower prices continue to cycle through the economy. Deflation is often associated with depressions but a depression is not a necessary condition. I don't think we will see deflationary economies when governments have the means to print money and reflate the economies.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:42)

The improvement in Japan's GDP still belies the fact that, to my knowledge, they have yet to address the debt problems overhanging the bubble from the '80s. Real estate and etc. At this late date they continue to paper over the problem. With the conivance of the rest of the world. They have that advantage, as does Brazil, because they are not a lynch pin to the system.

It seems to me that given our position as 'court of last resort' vis a vis monetary and debt matters, it is a far different ( spelling is becoming more difficult ) situation, should we visit the Japanese experience. Certainly we can fire up the money machine but, IMO, the world is less willing to cut us slack in the process. Indeed, why should they?? ..... To move the last exportable Toyota into the US?

I would argue that our ( US ) position makes us both unique and a source of vulnerability to the entire world and that our actions in this end game strategy cannot be measured in traditional terms. The macro stuff is less useful because the keystone to the system is in danger of coming apart.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:44)
Gold seemed to have found some support down 90c from NY close. Stocks are starting to recover slightly. It was a large jump in price for gold between NY close and with DOWs -130, probally the market is just reorganising itself. True picture probally after 12:00pm AEST. We have been tipped for another rate cut so dollar may do lower in week.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:45)
John @hep: Stuff it. ( :- (

(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:51)
Jack ( 20:38 ) : I think what Donald is saying is that at some point the credit card will be 'yanked' and the holder no longer has the option of buying groceries with a card in order to save the mortgage.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:52)
MIKE: ( your 16:03 ) I've done that; felt like you. That's a good one!! ...ANYONE: can any tell me which trading house supposedly offered $7 round turns on 100 lots ( options ) or greater??

George Cole
(Sun Jul 20 1997 20:58)
new world order
An interesting perspective on the new world order from an unnamed source.

I want to address the question of what may appear to be
a change in the World Bank's perspectives on the role of government by
some observations of my own, and then by citation of reflections by David
Korten following a lunch of UN officials, including President of the UN
General Assembly Razali Ismail, with government officials and members of
the WBCSD, a council of transnational corporations.

My observations:
Current anti-government public sentiment and tax resistance may begin
to threaten the flow of corporate welfare which is supported by
governmental budgets. Governmental subsidies to business and the costs
of corporate activities which are not included in business expenses,
but are covered by the public ( externalities ) , require that governments
continue to have financial resources available for these purposes.
Tax reduction might go too far, and cut into corporate welfare!

Corporate welfare, including very lucrative government contracts, far
exceeds governmental support of the social safety net. Profitable
contracts and other supports and benefits for business might be at
risk if government tax revenues shrink significantly! Political control
over populations requires well funded military and police. Economic
stability for the property and assets of a global dominant elite, which
includes the financial leaders and fiscal interests represented by the
World Bank as an institution, requires that governments continue to
subsidize corporations, and to safeguard the rights and assets of those
corporations. Government is seen as an essential, but junior partner, of
corporate rule in the new world order. Make no mistake about it - this is
a planned society that is envisioned by the elite. The World Bank and other
business organizations have been planning this program for years, and
now, at this point in history, have achieved hegemony. The planned, global
society they are unveiling clearly operates in behalf of the interests of a
small elite, and is totally undemocratic.

Citing David Korten: from "The United Nations and the Corporate Agenda"
( see )

"The underlying commitment to the use of public resources to advance
unrestrained global corporate expansion brought to mind the central
message of a book that first appeared in 1980 written by Bertram Gross
beyond the familiar racism, hatred and brutal authoritarian rule
associated with the practice of fascism to describe the institutional
structure of fascist regimes. Herein he revealed a nasty little secret.
The defining structure of fascist regimes is a corporate dominated
alliance between big business and big government to support the expansion
of corporate empires.

"Those of us who have been studying these issues have long known of the
strong alignment of the World Trade Organization ( WTO ) , the World Bank,
and the IMF to the corporate agenda."

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:00)
BOB, D.A.: While I concede that the M's are increasing I do not concede that those increases are present in the domestic U.S. economy. Since 1989 and the collapse of Communisim larger and larger amounts of U.S. cash paper dollars are circulating in former communist countries. On December 31, 1994, the Fed estimated the amount to be $233 Billion. The number is certainly higher now but no one, including the Fed, knows the exact amount. If that money is deducted from the M's we could actually be having decreases in the M's here in the states even though the published numbers properly and actually show increases.

This is a difficult business to resolve. I hope I am not making anyone upset by my position on this issue. The truth is no one knows for sure what the outcome will be. I have been tracking this stuff for years and have reached conclusions that are difficult for me to shake. I am personally embarassed by the fact that my expected outcome did not happen earlier.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:07)
@ latest news
Bloomberg News has gold down 75 cents...both Australian and
New Zealand markets down considerably. Aussie market down one
percent...Broken Hill ( mining interest ) on All Ordinaries one of leading decliners.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:10)
The time is at hand
This is only my second posting @ this site ( my first being a test ) , although Ive have been monitoring it for sometime. Over this time I've been able to see predictions play out or not play out, which ever the case maybe. I've loading up on call options- cost average buying, and feel it is time to load up on some gold stock. I'm would appreciate some opions on which ones will see the best returns. It has been stated that South African do the worst during the down times if that is true they should be the poised for highest returns at this point. Suggestions are appreciated.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:11)
look, up in the sky, it's a bird...
POORBOYS: What are the astro logicals you're going by for gold weakness? EARL: I had four bears on an empty stomach. Gold bears.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:13)
That would be really treating the patient, rather than the just symptom

Earl: Getting rid of the credit card -or cutting them by 67% -is a great idea. It would put the Money Mongers in their place and put a semblance of control back in the hands of the people.
Sure we may not be able to buy as much, but I suspect a better quality in both product and life will emerge.
We have a large low wage society who over extend their credit cards buying products from other lands to an eventual detriment of the whole land.
Who profits, not the country - JUST THE BANKERS AND THE MANUFACTURES THAT THEY FINANCE - everwhere but not here.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:16)
EBN Gold down .55

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:18)
loading up for Refer
REFER: Buy yourself some Echo Bay Mines ( ECO - ASE ) and some Sunshine Mining ( SSC- NYSE ) . SSC is primarily silver, but it is so cheap right now you could buy a few shares with what you find under the pillows in your couch. Buy it for just over half a buck now, and sell it for 1 3/4 on the next rally. Then wait for it to come back, and load up in winter of '98 for the big one. If you can't get $7 for it in 2003 I'll buy you lunch! Also Gold Standard Inc ( GSTD - Nasdaq Small Cap ) - which has a dynamite horoscope which will begin to explode at the turn of '98. I'm not shy.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:18)
Donald: Far from antagonizing, you are helping fill in gaps and challenge thinking. What happens when a big chunk of that $233 billion comes home? The EMU will happen and the new Euro will be accepted by over 500 million people as a challenger to the dollar as reserve currency. The Russians are buying gold again and may very well choose metal over dollars also. The Japanese are committed to helping the Pac-rim nations and will sell/spend dollars or treasuries to protect their trading partners in that region. The Asian Co-prosperity Sphere is alive and well. All of these things taken together indicate ( to me anyway ) that dollars will come flooding back to the US right about the time our CB hits 10% growth in the money supply. Sounds like chaos is just over the horizon.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:18)
My 2 Cents on Inflation/Deflation
In the first two quarters of this year, GDP substantially exceeded the consensus of economists and inflation was paradoxically substantially below the consensus. This paradox has explained by wall street as a result of new economic paradigm including the concept that as long as goods being imported at low prices, the economy can grow as fast as it wants without inflation. Academia, Roach and other so-called Phillips curve followers contend that the excessive GDP will produce inflation but there is a lag before it occurs. Moreover, all goods produced in the US, i.e. refrigerators, are not affected by competitive imports, and that non-competitive services provide a substantial part of the GDP. As far as money supply, M2 Money Supply as an indicator is not used as it was in the early 1980s when the Fed seemingly cared more about the money supply than short-term interest rates, its main focus today. "M2 has very little predictive power and the markets are aware of that," according to Gordon Richards, the economist for the National Association of Manufacturers. Studies have revealed that in the long term, inflation is a monetary consequence, but not necessarily on the short term.

In my own view, these counteracting forces will neither by themselves create significant inflationary nor deflationary problems. The key to inflation or deflation, both domestically and globally, is the dollar. Our expanding accounts deficit increases the risk of investor pull-out from financing both our trade accounts and governmental debt. And there has been no growth of savings in the US to counteract this, despite a substantial reduction in deficit - because everyone wants to play the market. All this means is that as a nation we are extraordinarily vulnerable to foreign withdrawal of investment funds, not unlike Thailand. And a collapsing stock market is not conducive to retaining such investors.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:19)
Chet Currier ( he's a syndicated columnist in many major newspapers )
had an article in this past Wednesday's Washington Times with a
In his article, he emphasizes that investors who want to hedge against inflation have gained some new alternatives to gold---in particular, the
inflation-protected securities ( TIPS ) that the U.S. Treasury began issuing at the beginning of this year. Any comments, views, or opinions?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:21)
EBN gold down .70 at 09:15 ET.
Steve Peutz: Why the strong upticks in gold last week, short covering?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:21)
I think D.A. is watchin Irabu.....

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:25)
Earl, I find it absolutely disgusting that you write so well while drinking. Is there no hope for those of us with lesser gifts : ) )

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:28)
a philosophical dilemma
JACK: Your comment about treating the patient is unfortunately true, but I think that the coming catastrophe will be more the cure than anything else. This is a society, a world, bereft of philosophy or spiritual concern. The people seek not principles and eternal values, but only things and money. Things and money are wonderful servants, but terrible masters. Too many souls have been sold in the playing out of the disease. Our "statesmen" and "leaders" are rudderless and bankrupt, but that is no excuse. The people are failing themselves, and their children. Cultural emptyness always precedes civilizational night. The slow-motion apocalypse will be long, drawn out, and resemble nothing current society could relate to. We are on the edge of the next dark age.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:29)
Earl: at least ya gave me the smile when ya told me ta stuff it...unlike HipPussy....have another...fer me! ...D.A.: Irabu ain't lookin that great

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:30)
sorry 'bout that
Hope I'm not depressing anyone. Kitco company excepted from my "dark age" comments, of course.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:32)
GoldBug 23: I imagine most of the gold rally last week was from mild short-covering. It will probably take a rally to $335 to $340 to really get the shorts to run. Then the price will take off. The other contributing factor was the stock market sell-off that began on Thursday.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:33)
EBN Gold down .85 despite weak Dollar....

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:35)
ALL: Based on current trading in S&P futures, the DJIA looks like it will open about 70 points lower tomorrow morning. Maybe the financial hurricane we all have been waiting for has finally started. Remember, hurricane season is from July to October.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:36)
VIESERRE: Even though I expect deflation first, then inflation, I am not uncomfortable holding gold and silver long. I do not margin my positions. As I have said before, what do I care if gold deflates to $100 as long as houses deflate to $5000. That is not necessarily a wise guy statement. I think it a real possibility.

REFER: I am holding Bema Gold. Last figures they published showed a $5.50 book value when gold was about $350. They have a boffo mine in Chile and are a likely takeover target.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:37)
Mike Sheller: Depressing but TRUE.....

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:39)
STEVE PUETZ: Hows that again? Are you lacking a decimal point?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:46)
SPEED: That could happen: it would really hit the fan on the way back home.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:46)
S. PUETZ: In your commentary on the 1976 bottom, you mentioned that the US Treasury sold gold to depress price. I was under the impression that the Treasury could not sell gold without congressional approval. If so, was approval obtained?, If not, how was it sold.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:49)
Nailz: Deflation we be the best possible environment for gold. Its purchasing power could be enhanced 50 to 100 times the present purchasing power of gold.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:50)
To Earl : (:-)
Earl: ( :- ) )

No sympathy from this quarter my lad... Now if it was Canadian beer you'd really be skunked . 4 American beers still is considered "wimpy" in Canada!


(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:51)
Today a local financial radio talk show featured a lengthly telephone
interview with Charles Allmon, editor of The Growth Stock Outlook newsletter. This newsletter has been around for 20 or 30 years and seems
to be well respected. Dr. Allmon voiced some definite opinions on the current stock market. To summarize his remarks, he feels the market is about to experience a fundamental change. It will either ( 1 ) go down HARD -- 40-50%, OR ( 2 ) go sideways for an extended period of years ... until earnings come more in sync with valuations.
When pressed for current buy selections, he specified undervalued GOLD stocks!

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:51)
The coming stock market crash and gold boom will quiet John Hepcat like no other Kitco posting has been able to do.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:52)
Hi Front! Earl would be on the floor if it was Canadian beer....

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:53)
THE DINES LETTER (July 21, 1997)
GOLDBUGS FEEL LIKE HOLYFIELD'S EAR. A blow-by-blow replay. It may be necessary to click your RELOAD. See Editorials section at:

(Sun Jul 20 1997 21:56)
EBN Gold down .50

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:00)
A thought provoking table at AVID traders

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:02)
Is this an EBN faux pas? Why is the Austrian Schilling getting hammered?
Down 4%+?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:03)
DONALD: I do not know what will happen to gold re: inflation or deflation. I have not thought it through well-enough to side with my conflicting views. The way I am playing it is to see how it reacts to events as they unfold and take it from there. Fortunately, gold is poised by being oversold for both psychological and technical reasons to rise substanially in price if any event occurs favoring gold. And of course, I would be more comfortable with this current rally in gold if an economic or finanical reason is attributed to it.

Commisar KGB, US operativ
(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:05)
Ve speak softly and urinate straight

Ve haf interogated KGB agent implicated in urinal story and find that RJ lif skirt; kurious KGB agent look. Vat he zee knok him dizsy; ven he mis urinal, flor get vet. Simple kapilalistic shoe, no match for KGB hardhead. Ve find missen Karburator at the criminal zcene and zend to Albania, vhere 1942 lend lease dodge vit plantinum vait at truk stop.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:06)
WDL: You asked for comment about my favorite subject, TIPS. These things will not reduce the demand for gold, they will increase it. Why? Because of an implied promise of the government behind these things to create whatever amount of money is necessary to pay the principle at maturity. The treasury has no idea what it will take to pay these things on maturity, but not to worry - the fed will be ready to do whatever is necessary, as long as congress will pass the necessary increases in the debt limit.

When it is again widely perceived that protection against inflation is important, all hard assets will be of interest as well as TIPS. And TIPS have two significant disadvantages - you have to pay income tax on the principal adjustments as they occur ( even though you don't get the money until maturity ) , and the US government ( the borrower ) gets to define and measure the inflation adjustment.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:06)
Deflation? I think not.
It seems to me that most are missing some key points that should be considered, for those that feel we are headed for deflation. The principal catalyst for the deflation event would be the inability of the general public to pay realestate loans. These properties would
obviously go to forclusure, but that does not necessarily mean that they will be auctioned off at 50% or less of their value.

Lets consider the worst....stock market crashes.....millions of people lose their jobs......massive amounts of mortgages go unpaid......banks go belly up......boom!, we have a supposed deflation scenario as contended by its theorists......

but lets not stop just there.......... the banks that are belly up will be taken over by the varios institutions designed for this event, like the FDIC. The realestate mortgages are then channelled back into the fannie maes/macs, and they in turn channel the liquidation of these debts back to the retail level ( Im not exactly up on the names of the varios gov departments involved, but this would be the general idea ) .

*IF* they were to allow a huge volume of properties to be sold substantially under the owed amount, two things would happen:
1. This difference in price ultimately must be compensated by the printing of more paper ( inflationary ) . The morgagee sure wont have any more to give.
2. Each and every property liquidated below present market values, will only add to possible deflation of the market and need for printing even more paper, thus creating the proverbial vicious circle.

It seems to me that the gov will be forced to NOT liquidate these properties too low, and will try to prop them up by papering and printing everything over, such as offering certain incentives and
deferences for buyers to purchase at present levels, thus avoiding our dreaded deflation. In Venezuela I witnessed a total monetary collapse, as 95% of all banks were taken over by the goverment, who were simultaneously printing UNGODLY amounts of money. In a year, the exchange shot from 90:1 to 500:1.....but none of the banks
properties were liquidated at cheap prices. The goverment just sat on them....creating in itself a massive inflation. And the real estate market STOPPED dead in the water for 2 years, but no deflation ( not even after the devalued exchange compared to the dollar ) .

As with the U.S. goverment, nothing short of a total monetary collapse will change this course of events. Whether they liquidate at prices
much lower than todays market, or sit and wait, of give incentives and
deferences......ALL of these tactics spell hyper-inflation..

Something else that most deflationists like to banty around, is the example set in the 1930s. Todays world has NOTHING in common with the 1930s, which were on the gold standard, which prevented a goverment to inject liquidity ( print cash fast ) into the economy, until that fatefull day when gold possesion was outlawed. Today, they can and
do print at will, without restraints and in a manner unprecedented, and they WILL again, because this time they don't have their "meaningless" golden chaparone to restrict them. This time, they will "give" out welfare benefits to quite down an incredibly large and hungry mob, so they can fill their bellies. There will simply be no other choice. They will again law the possesion of gold, out of logical expedience. But this time, I believe it will be too late, as the mainstream thought ( with events running their course up to this point ) will reject the confiscation of their gold, which will boomerang and create a black market that will send the price even higher. As they said in that dinosaur movie: Life will always find a way". Free markets are as natural as life itself.

No matter how you cut it, I seems to me that, in the event of a real market crash, hyper-inflation will take over this time.....not deflation. Those who want to use the deflation Tokyo properties as an example, must also bear in mind that the game is not over until its over, meaning that a provincial example is not comparable to an implosion of the worlds reserve currency.....the U.S. dollar. As long as there is a stable reserve currency to fall back on ( in todays political mindset ) we can have some deflation......but without this stable reserve currency ( or when it implodes ) , HYPER-INFLATION will definitely take the helm.

An opinion from a connesuier of common sense; rock throwing by rational thinkers solicited.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:08)
PANDA: Must be Panzer divisions on the roll again. Or, they are selling gold?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:10)
Donald: Good post @ 19:25

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:13)
@curiouser and curiouser
Australia seen becoming post-EMU "safe haven" 

And in the, Tit for Tat column we have,
U.S. may hit back if EU reject Boeing merger-paper

Oooooooh! The planers are at work! Look out EU....

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:13)
Steve Puetz--I don't understand how gold will be worth 500% more in a time of deflation. Along the what-ifs senerio, what makes you think that the government will not either fix the price of gold or "outlaw" individual ownership again?

By the way, I agree that there is a growing body of evidence that deflation may be more likely in the next few years.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:16)
D.A.: Home loans and security loans are still expanding. That's why the monetary aggregates are still expanding. The surging bankruptcy rate is a signal that credit-quality is deteriorating rapidly. When the stock market collapses, the real deflation will start, and the real bankruptcy problem will begin. A huge number of loans will be paid off ONLY if the stock market continues to rise. A stock market crash will make hundreds of billions of loans unpayable. These expected bankruptcies will send the money aggregates into contraction and the economy into deflation.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:18)
Thousandeer: Your 20:18 sounds like a good idea. Sign me up for that $7 1/2 million plan. It sounds like taking candy from a baby!!!

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:19)
Central Banks @ Private Profit-Making
The Gold Reserve Hearings ( 1934 ) SENATOR ROBERT L. OWEN, long time critic
of the system, ( federal reserve system ) made the following statement:

"The people did not know the Federal Reserve Banks were organized for
profit-making. They were intended to stablize the credit and currency
supply of the country. That end has not been accomplished. Indeed, there
has been the most *remarkable variation* in the purchasing power of money
since the System went into effect. The Federal Reserve men are chosen by
the big banks, through discreet little campaigns, and they naturally
follow the ideals which are portrayed to them as the soundest from a
financial point of view"

Benjamin Anderson, economist for the Chase National Bank of New York said
( Gold Reserve Hearings 1934 )
"At the moment, 1934, we have 900 million dollars excess reserves. In
1924, with increased reserves of 300 million, you got three or four
billion in bank expansion of credit very quickly. That extra money was
put out by the Federal Reserve Banks in 1924 through buying government
securities and was the cause of the rapid expansion of bank credit. The
banks continued to get excess reserves because more GOLD came in, and
because, whenever there was a slackening, the Federal Reserve people
would put out some more. They held back a bit in 1926. Things firmed up
a bit that year. And then in 1927 they put out less than 300 million
additional reserves, set the wild stock market going, and that led us
right into the smash of 1929 "

Before the House Banking and Currency Committee on June 24 1941,
Governor Eccles said:
"Money is created out of the *right* to issue credit-money."

Governor Eccles said, at the Silver Hearings of 1939:
"When you sell bonds on the open market, you extinguish reserves"

Governor Eccles said ( September 30 1940 ) :
"If there were no debts in our money system, there would be no money"

At the House Banking and Currency Committee Hearings on June 06 1960
( Money facts, House Banking and Currency Committee, 1964, p.9 )

As Congressman Wright Patman puts it,
" The dollar represents a one dollar debt to the Federal Reserve System.
The Federal Reserve Banks create money out of thin air to buy Government
bonds from the United States Treasury, lending money into circulation at
*INTEREST*, by *BOOKKEEPING* entries of checkbook credit to the United
States Treasury. The Treasury writes up an *INTEREST* bearing bond for
one billion dollars. The Federal Reserve gives the Treasury a one billion
dollar credit for the bond, and has created out of nothing a one billion
dollar debt which the American people are *OBLIGATED* to pay with

Congressman Wright Patman continues:
"Where does the Federal Reserve system get the money with which to create
Bank Reserves ? Answer...It doesn't get the money, it creates it.
When the Federal Reserve writes a check, it is creating money.
The Federal Reserve is a total moneymaking machine. It can issue money or

All of these central banks have the power of issuing currency in their
respective countries. Thus, the people do not own their own money in
Europe, nor do they own it here ( USofA ) . It is privately printed for
private profit. The people have no sovereignty over their money, and it
has developed that they have no sovereignty over other major political
issues such as foreign policy.

September 30 1941 ( House Committee on Banking and Currency )
PATMAN: "How did you get the money to buy those two billion dollars
worth of Government securities in 1933 ?
ECCLES: We created it
PATMAN: Out of what ?
ECCLES: Out of the right to issue credit money.
PATMAN: And there is nothing behind it,is there, except our Government's
credit ?

House Hearings of 1947, Mr. Kolburn asked Mr. Eccles:
"What do you mean by monetization of the public debt ???
ECCLES: I mean the bank creating money by the purchase of Government securities. All money is created by debt--either private or public debt.
FLETCHER: Chairman Eccles, when do you think there is a possibility of
returning to a free and open market, instead of this pegged and
artificially controlled financial market we now have. ?????

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:20)

John Disney - I am confused as to why it is okay for you to attack me in
every possible fashion and then say, "Don't bother to reply". If I come
into a bar, pull the bar stool out from under you, crack your head open
with a beer mug, and then kick you repeatedly in the ribs, is it
acceptible if I then say, "Don't bother calling the manager over or trying to
reciprocate"? What do you hope to accomplish by saying, "Don't
bother to reply"? Are you trying to say you're not interested in my reply?
Then why the hell address me? I haven't acknowledged a John Disney on this site
since you said something about a Money magazine headline being
a good contra-indicator three or four months ago. Is it something you
feel you need to get off your chest because gold opened lower in Asia
and I am somehow to blame? Did I somehow set you up for disappointment?

Everyone - I think you are confusing the fact that gold has not performed
well over the past year with the fact that I post on this site telling you gold
has not performed well over the past year. I don't care if I am the straw
man for gold's woes, and I don't care if you continue to villify me and lobby
for my eviction and continue TO BREAK YOUR OWN VOWS NOT TO
the only serves to stoke the fires of your passionate dislike for me.

Be very careful what you wish for. When I am beaten into submission
on this site, there is an off-chance ( small, I know, but you should try to
incorporate it into your realm of possibilities ) that gold will continue not
to perform well. Then who will you attack? Who will you have to blame
for your bad decisions and ill-timed entries into the market? Heavens,
not yourself, this is too much to consider. Why take responsibility when
there is a whole world of people out there to accuse of manipulation
or treachery or artificial support of the stock market or someone who
isn't using proper netiquette. ( I'll never forget the first time I posted on
this site and someone said I had my head too far up a cadaver's rectum. )
I just want it known that I didn't start this. I don't care if you can't accept it.
There is a higher authority out there called truth, and you can either open
your eyes to it as adults or continue to ignore it as children.

NOW DON'T BOTHER TO RESPOND. I can't stand your whining.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:24)
Donald: Re your 19:25: The government has many ways to circumvent the bankers and place money in the hands of the masses. Food Stamps, housing vouchers, WIC cards, unemployment checks, tax credits, tax refunds and on and on. 500 billion dollars is going to be distributed this year via these methods and others. Picture this:
"By Executive order in this time of National Emergency, every person who is out of work may apply for a USA debit card with $5,000 limit renewable every 6 months until I, Your President declare the crisis to be ended." Or how about this: "Foreclosure on mortgages of homesteads is forbidden by executive order until the national emergency is declared ended."

This is easy, hell I could be president.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:24)
EBN Gold down .40 ....Is Earl still with us????

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:25)
panda : take another look. Its not the Austrian Schilling that's getting hammered.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:29)
Donald -- One of the things that go on in the currency game is this cross rate business. In order swap in to one currency, you may have to go through one or more other currency exchanges. This is what upsets the best laid plans of the CBs. It is so impolite to screw up your currency and then have 'speculators' attack it, only to trash several other currencies in the process. :- ) )
Your currency neighbors might get upset with you... Nah, they'll just bail you out.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:32)!
NJ -- Thanks! That's right, up is down and down is up! :- ) I get it now!

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:33)
Vieserre: My memory has faded a bit since the mid-1970s. If I remember correctly, both the IMF and the US Treasury were auctioning gold about every 6 weeks between 1976 and 1979. During 1976, the gold bottom occurred at $100 -- at the same time as one of the first US Treasury auctions. The gold sales, however, did not hurt gold's price, and in 1979, the Treasury finally gave up trying to hold down the price. I don't know the legal details about Congressional approval.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:33)
@ politically correct thinking

Steve: I'm just a goldbug suffering from - Not Withdrawal Symtoms - but what they are putting over on the public symtoms; or excessive CNBC advertismentitis.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:34)
i think i smell a limit move DOWN in sept. soybeans!
the crops are geting much needed rains that they did
not expect.

cap-n-kev, eldo, geff,----------are ya'll in??

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:34)
Earl -- Got a beer for me?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:35)
cherokee -- I think eldo went on vacation.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:37)
SPEED, CMAX: On March 1, 1933, in his last act as President, Herbert Hoover signed an amended bankruptcy act into law. This law extended the time for payments and prevented creditors from reclaiming property of individuals, not corporations. When Roosevelt took office later he extended the law to include corporations. House prices plunged anyway. I think that creditors sold their claim rights for whatever they could get because they needed the cash for their own debts. The point here is that the government did act, and acted decicively, but could not stop deflation. I don't know for sure what would happen now. Millions would be affected, they constitute a powerful lobby and will not be removed from their homes. But that will not prevent deflation.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:37)
Hi TED, Welcome back....Hope you didn't get any ideas of leaving our welfare state ! BTW, Just call me granddad! Yea, re: Cdn beer ... I guess that's why my friends in the states always want me to bring a case or two down so they can appreciate some good beer at least once in their lives eh! BTW, If the boys ever do have that party in Montreal, it'll be Canadian beers boys, so have some milk first before the toasts...We don't want anyone gettin arrested etc. Enjoy ...


(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:38)
Could it be? A limit down move in the NDX??? Down 1975. Wow, someone doesn't like the best of the Nasdaq!

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:39)
Geff: Governments can't permanently fix any kind of market. The USSR tried to hold the price of a loaf of bread down to an unreasonably low price -- and people stood in line for hours to by bread. Financial market are global. If people want gold, THEY WILL FIND A WAY. It doesn't matter if governments outlaw its ownership. It may keep some small investors out of gold, but large investors will move their capital to wherever they need to -- to get gold ownership.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:40)
Steve Puetz- Your comment to DA is exactly right! And those that got "money", whatever "money" is, will be able to buy the place ON SALE!

Milhouse- the bottom will probably be between now and the end of the year
with mid-October a good posibility. The only way I know to do that is buy some all along and keep a lot of powder dry for the crash. GOOD LUCK!

Tally Ho

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:44)
I see it to the Max
CMAX: While I am open to both the deflationary and inflationary scenario potentials, I have to admit I am also leaning toward hyperflation as the ultimate danger ahead, for essentially the reason that there is no official tie of paper to gold. The inflation, so to speak, has ALREADY occurred. The increase in money and credit, and issued debt instruments of the US government as bank assets, has been significant. The inflated financial structures of this society are based on consumption and expedience, and will be propped up at any cost if there is a severe dislocation of any kind. I agree also that the situation re ownership of gold will be different next time. Very different. I think those who are looking for a DEflation are aware of the unusual financial stock bubble, and debt level of both government and consumer. They expect that the wind has to come out of such a structure sooner or later, and they are right. But it is just such a danger, that when it begins to manifest, will encourage expedient political measures to prevent a snowballing collapse. The world does not shut down on a dime. Industries will continue to serve people's needs, but the preservation of the useless and malignant excesses of society to stave off evaporation of savings in mutual funds, massive unemployment and citizen panic and anger, will be the catalyst for an ultimately hyperinflationary response. This will likely occur in concert with our trading "partners" around the globe...or, at least, those who have been our allies in this ongoing game of monetary musical chairs for decades.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:45)
Mike Sheller ( 21:28 ) : Hear, hear! We have thrown overboard the values of forebears and replaced them with absolutely nothing. ..... Paraphrasing HL Mencken: "It is as if we were seated at a banquet and yet content ourselves by catching and eating flies".

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:46)
Congrats Front!!...makes me feel OLD....Checked out the states and my decision is to stay in CANADA....cause their beer is better and Bubba Clintok don't live here.....Another beautiful moon shimmering on a calm ocean....

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:47)
That NASDAQ number is saying that Bill Gates is going to bum for bus fare to get home from work tomorrow night.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:50)
DEFLATION ..??????
ALL......From where I sit it looks like inflation...I see too much money, everybody has all they need plus some. I see real estate values going up every day, every time I go to the grocery the prices are up.... people on vacation with a fist full of money....Am I missing something ...??????Is the deflation to come after inflation ( as I believe ) or is deflation around the corner..????? I do see an increase in bankruptcies and lower CRB prices.....

HELP ....!!!!!I prepared for inflation.!!!!!!

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:50)
Donald: Your knowledge is very extensive. Thanks for sharing here.
Donald & Puetz: The defense against deflation is very different than for inflation. If I accept the premise that deflation is coming, or already happening, then it follows that I should pay off debt, not incur more. ( Ouch ) What else? I don't follow the argument that gold/silver will increase in purchasing power in a deflationary environment. It seems rather that holding dollars would be better. Any help is appreciated.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:51)
Ain't we gettin precise tonight.....EBN Gold down .38

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:52)
Donald: It does look like a real blood-bath is forming for the stock market tomorrow. Tonight's fall in the OTC market is equal to about 160 points down on the DJIA.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:53)
Mike Sheller -- You could deflate the market by knocking twenty to forty percent off, and then have it go no where for ten or fifteen years. This would not cause a 'great depression', but would, in time, take care of the stock bubble. The key is that the currency is not tied to anything, so it can be anything. It's a tremendous ace to have up your sleeve. After all, how many people actually know what their money is? ( Let alone care! )

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:54)

Though superannuated, I think I could still give a good account of myself if faced with a carton of Old Style. ..... I remember a time.... t'was in the Kamloops country as I recall. Yes it waaaaas. Said the lake was "turnin' over". Yes, they diiiiid. ...... Wasn't a trout to be had in a hunert miles. 'N all we had was bacon, beans and many cases of Old Style with several fifths of Yukon Jack for chaser. ...... How painful it is to recall.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:56)
Hello Mike:

Where can I locate you gold standard chart? This company is the biggest single postion I have.



(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:57)
Cherokee: I agree, soybeans could be down sharply because of widespread rain in Iowa. Where do you live? And how much rain have you gotten in your area? We still need rain in Northwestern Indiana. We have only had .1" of rain during July.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:58)
& another thing...
One further comment. During the last major deflation, from 1929 to 1933 the US money stock decreased by one third. This is a humongous figure. This was allowed by a Federal Reserve ostensibly set up to regulate the growth of the money supply. We know now what they did to bring about the financial bubble of the 1920's, of which the current stock boom is a literal carbon copy. The difference this time around may be that the chronic debt and inflation machine that has arisen since the 1960's is in place, and well primed to rev up and "counterract" a deflating money supply without missing a beat. In the last go-round, they still had barely taken the new statist toy of a Central Bank out of the box, let alone read the instructions. Now they are very adept at keeping the paper coming. Stagnation? Yes. True deflation? Mebbe not. Hyperinflation? Could very well be.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:58)
NAILZ: That fist full of money is credit money, not cash money. That house price went up on "no money down" deals. Again, that is credit money. Vacations and houses have to be paid for eventually with cash money. When they run out of credit money, and cash money, you have deflation big time.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 22:58)
speed, nailz -- The bottom line is this, in a deflation the currency increases in purchasing power. Currrency = Debt. How will the government pay that debt? It will either extend ( defer ) payment or... inflate. The only other choice is the dark ages, total monetary collapse. It isn't going to happen, not as long as they have paper and ink! :- ) )

(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:02)
S. Puetz - thanks for the reply. 6pak, thanks for the information.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:03)
Ted, all that talk of eating and drinking is driving me to the kitchen. I went out this past weekend and bought myself a hard asset--an Ultra bread maker. Now that's an investment that's not going to go down in value. Set it last night--woke this morning to the smell and taste of hot whole wheat bread and strawberry jam. Now, can gold do that for a person?

(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:04)
DONALD.....SORRY to report to you, but where I am , banks are looking to find sound borrowers at prime + 2%....If you bargain with them here you can get an unsecured prime +1 1/2% with a perfect background.....Secured prime +1% will fly....NO SHORTAGE OF CREDIT HERE !!!!!!!!Banks can not find enough borrowers !!!!!! Looks like inflation to me........

(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:06)
Earl ( 22:54 ) Sounds like the fishin trip I was on last week in upstate New York....Puetz:Cherokee lives in TEXAS,the home of the Houston Rockets and Hakeeeeeem......

(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:08)
Tortfeasor -- Those machines are evil! They fill the house with that wonderful smell... If you weren't hungry before.... Those machines will do it to you everytime! There is nothing like fresh bread! Mmmmmmmmmmmm.

Time to turn in. Good night all. The times, they are getting interesting.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:08)
MIKE SHELLER: You guys are keeping me up past bedtime! The Fed did supply plenty of money, ie increased the monetary base. It was availavble to your local banker. It was the local bankers who were afraid to lend it out. The numbers appeared to contract only because more dollars were being extinguished by bankruptcy than could be created by the Fed. They really did try, but to no avail.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:10)
Round Turn
Savage: Lind-Waldock has a $7/option round turn commission for lots of 100 or more options provided the time to expiration is over two months and the option premium is less than $26. If the premium is between $26 and $50, the round turn goes to $9/option; and in general, the greater the premium, the more you'll pay in commissions. However, the less time 'til expiry and the greater the lot size, the cheaper the RT. I have their commission schedule here. If you're interested in comparison shopping any particular options trade, let me know. My email is ( No, I do not work for them, or anyone in the business ) .

(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:11)
@war-council-----paint-for-all---it will be needed this week!!!!

just the first of many limit moves due this week.
the leaders on the way up, usually lead the way
down. let the games begin, my gold options are
ready to assist with the transfer of wealth from
the anti-gold-for-lunch-bunch, to those who under-
stand what gold signifies. a secure store of wealth.
the only difference for the last 13 years has been
what people were told be the very same manipulators.
people never KNOW AS MUCH AS YOU think they know!!!
the genie is coming out of the bottle, he just happens
to be a green jin. with no master to control him, the
world will be his, again. let the paper-tiger scream
his own death knell, the hunt is almost over. all
that remains is the thud as the arrow pierces its'
heart, and the taking of the skin by the gold-bugs
who've stalked him for aeons upon aeons.

cherokee!; ) harvester of the bean buyers, and recognizer of the truth.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:12)
Tort: Where the hell ya been???...We's having a hell of a party here...
and stay away from that kitchen or ya might get a case of "taco belt"...
I'm hoping for a pullback in gold ( don't tell anyone ) so I can buy some more gold shares on the cheap....that said,there will be no pullback!

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:16)
DONALD: My point exactly! Nowadays the computers will calculate how much money will be needed to make up for bankruptcy extinguished supply. And some for the pot! Maybe the same computer will run the printing press...they already do.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:21)
Nikkei 225 down 1.32%....EBN Gold down .75....Goodnight ALL!

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:24)
ROB: If you haven't done so already, please see my article on GSTD at Gold-Eagle at

There's an updated PRICE chart as well if you click on the words GOLD STANDARD at the beginning of the piece. If you are talking about the Horoscope ( bless your heart ) , I ran one out based on incorporation date of November 28, 1972. It's a solar chart calculated automatically for noon, EDT. The important point is that the Sun and Neptune in this baby are conjuncting at 5 and 6 Sagittarius, and Pluto is gonna run right into them starting this winter, and for the next year. This is usually potent for a corporation's stock price. Seeing as the price is down now, I must conclude that the Pluto hit will either put it out of business, or give liftoff. Buy more in the Fall at any significant weakness.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:27)
knock on any door
ROB: If that address doesn't let you in, go to and click on Astrological Investor. And while you're there, be sure to read every wonderful word!

(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:30)

as my secretary reported, i live close to houston, texas.
we have been innundated so far this year, and are way above
average. there was so much rain early this year it delayed
planting of the rice crop. they are only going to get one
crop instead of the usual two. this will be a strong play
after the first harvest, due to a shortfall from their forecast.
should double the price. hey rice is ok, especially if you
have knowledge.

see everybody on top of the mountain monday--------------!; )

(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:30)
If deflation is about to insue due to deteriorating
credit conditions perhaps it's just as likely that the
Fed and other National Banks will inflate to compensate.Which I guess
means that there may be no contradiction or conflict in the apparently
opposing points of view...any comments.

(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:50)
Reply to Donald
The Bankruptcy Act that you describe from the 30s takes into consideration PRIVATE paper held on properties that were held were deflated, as they accepted whatever they ( the holder of the mortgage ) could get to satisfy their immediate needs. This time around, it will be the goverment itself that is holding all the defaulted loans, and they will simply print their way addition to all the bankrupcy incentives that they will offer. It is a whole new game this time ( thanks to FDIC, fanny mae, freddy mac, free gold ownership, and no gold standard ) and hyper-inflation seems set to prevail.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:51)
Rhyme in time
RHYME: I think you are the very person to anoint. Rhyme, I do believe you've put your finger on the point. You've given us the vision of the future of our nation. Of course its plain to see, we're headed for a FLATION!

(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:52)
ROB & MIKE SHELLER: The website is:

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:54)
CHEROKEE: Rice is even BETTER with black beans, fried porkchops, and a slice of avocado.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Jul 20 1997 23:58)
ROB: vronsky is ( as usual ) correct. When you get into that address, you'll be in the LATEST post. Just scroll down to the bottom ( after reading every word, of course ) and click on April 27 for report on GSTD. Thanks - sorry about the confusion..