Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 00:00)

1 month; 327 3 months; 330 6 months; 332

(Tue Jul 22 1997 00:05)
FWIW, gold Will be up about 6 bucks in the next 24 hrs.
Earl what kind of RT ya got. ( ELECTOLYTES? SHEESES )

(Tue Jul 22 1997 00:10)
Thanks for the info from all you nice folks. I'm pretty much in cash
now and waiting for a sign. A plus sign that is |~`'`}} ( he hit a fan )
Nite all,

(Tue Jul 22 1997 00:16)
@lookin over my shoulder
Savage: I think your getting a little paranoid...a common goldbug affliction. :- ) )

(Tue Jul 22 1997 00:21)
Kap'n Kev: RT? or electrolytes? Which do you want? ( :- ) ..... I've been using Ensign's Vista RT for 2 years. It's DOS based and works well. It has all the indicators I'll need. I run it under W95 and have no problems. They have a Windows based product but I have a bias against all that pointing and clicking. The DOS version is faster moving from one screen to the next with hot keys and 'F' keys. None of that pulldown stuff. I'm still playing around with getting to run in background and collect data when I come here to collect gossip. So far, it don't like to do that. Support has been good from Ensign. I emailed a description ( Sun nite ) of a problem. A message was waiting this afternoon when I returned to the office. I did have call software support to solve it but that was a positive experience as well. ....... After all of this maybe I'll get a freebie. Huh? ............... ONe final comment. Graphics are no doubt better ( finer bars ) on the windows version.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 01:03)
This game of forcasting is somewhat like watching a Windows 95 demo.
When the real game gets played there are a lot of unexpected surprises.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 02:22)
Thanks for the reply to "greenie issue"!I think he must have big impact in recently s.e.a financial crisis,....and more, and more....?
let trade...

(Tue Jul 22 1997 02:26)

(Tue Jul 22 1997 02:30)
To all,
I would liked to learn some technic/analysts in "short selling"!
anyone may help?please..thanks!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 02:31)
To all,
I would liked to learn some technic/analysts in "short selling"!
anyone may help?please..thanks!
jin e mail ( )

(Tue Jul 22 1997 02:47)
A glimmer thru the haze.
Arden - Thanks for the effort, but you are still moving too fast for me. When you say - as a speculator, all you have to do is put up some margin money, what actually happens? Either something must be sold, or someone else must make a promise to buy at that price. Otherwise, if the gods are with you, and the price goes down, you will buy it back at the lower price, but the proceeds of the original sale won't be there to cover your purchase price.

I'm sure all this is Investing 101, and I'll have to buy a book. No need to take up Kitco bandwidth with additional discussion. Thanks for your help. Slowly but surely .....!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 02:53)
Just noticed article in July 7 issue of Forbes about Chaum, an entrpreneur in cybercash. The question was brought up: With the advent of encrypted cybermoney, how would governments keep track of money supply? If the cybercash were linked to say, gold, the question is sort of moot, isn't it?

(Tue Jul 22 1997 02:56)
@Glad to have Ted back

Time to call it a day. BTW, I think the banter and occasional tomfoolery here is a breath of fresh air. IMHO, Kitco would not be Kitco without it. The serious and thoughtful opinions expressed here are priceless as well. There ain't no place like it!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 04:17)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

John Disney
(Tue Jul 22 1997 05:23)
to all ---
I read Global whatever's and Bernatz's report to shareholders
on their competing processes to recover precious metals from

1. Global's is funnier
2. Bernatz's is better written.
3. Both are BS

(Tue Jul 22 1997 05:37)
This about China and Tibet ( By way of Brazil )

Poverty and expansion are characteristic of China

LHASA, 07/22/97 - The invasion of direct foreign capital, excess capacity in nearly every industry
and heavy subsidies to state owned companies have resulted in a constant explosion of exports from
China. While. Chinese industrial production rose 11.67% in the first half of the year, in Tibet and in
Sechuan, there are decrepit factories and mills unable to pay workers' salaries. The Chinese
government must cut subsidies to obsolete state owned companies but there are millions of workers
who have not received their salaries in months. ( SB )

(Tue Jul 22 1997 05:47)
Malaysia blames un-named "certain person" on currency problems.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 05:55)
Astrology, astrology...more bloody astrology
My predictions for gold are 1 month: $339.42 ; 2 months $344.57 ; 3 months $ 340.22; 6 months $362.20. I base this on this wonderful gem I found at another site which was posted on July 8 :" Current crash in gold prices should end by July 21 as sun enters Leo. Sun & Venus should "warm up" gold for at least its astrological month. Sextile of Mars in Libra will help. Expect wild changes ( Uranus ) . But Uranus opposition to Leo will continue fall after that. Another crazy period early October as Jupiter goes direct on the 12th. Turn of Jupiter increases depths of swings." However I won't wager my life savings on these predictions.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 06:29)
Good morning ALL...ABN Gold up .20 and Silver up 2 cents...

George Cole
(Tue Jul 22 1997 06:42)
NY Times worried about a possible resurgence of inflation:

August gold up 60 cents this morning according to DBC. Hope I'm wrong about $320 this week.

My gold price projections:

one month;$335
three months: $360
six months: $390

(Tue Jul 22 1997 06:46)
@Where's my platinum!
Japan still waiting;

(Tue Jul 22 1997 06:47)
Couldn't get online last night and I awake to find I've been viciously attacked....Thanks for the support group...doesn't take a rocket scientist to know who did the dirty deed...

(Tue Jul 22 1997 06:55)
Big Traders or Hypocondriacs

Donald: ( 05:47 ) Either BT or GS. A bit tardy for Sir James.
John Disney: ( 05:23 ) Bernatz' report is definately not for hypocondriacs.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 07:00)
China acts to shore up confidence in stocks.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 07:09)
If anyone wants to know what 'manic' or parabolic market looks like, then take a peek at the Frankfurt DAX. Down 1-2% then up 2-3% the next day. Very normal. :- ) )

Good morning TED!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 07:12)
Joke of the Morn
Looks like only more of the same drivvel in the markets this am. Makes basket weaving sound titilating. Since Ted has been under attack and must feel like a punch drunk fighter after being maligned on this site last night I feel inclined to post the following Tyson jokes to cheer him up.

10 ) Tyson already has his next fight lined up, with Lorena Bobbitt.
Winner eats all.

9 ) This gives new meaning to "box lunch."

8 ) Reporter: "Evander, what did you think when Tyson bit off your ear?"
Holyfield: "WHAT?"

7 ) Dr.Spock-vs.-Tyson bout hastily canceled

6 ) What did Mike Tyson say to Van Gogh?
"You gonna eat that?"

5 ) Did you hear about the new Mike Tyson computer?
It has two bytes and no memory

4 ) Next bout: Tyson vs. Hannibal Lecter, with Julia Child to referee.
To be held in Hungary. Billed as, "The snackfest in Budapest."

3 ) How does Mike Tyson differ from Metallica?
Metallica leaves a ringing in
your ears. Tyson leaves your ear in a ring.

2 ) Slogans for Tyson-Holyfield III
The Third Gogh Around
Dahmer vs. Psalmer
The Last Supper
Ear-Reconcilable Differences
Grazing Bull
You Wanna Piece of Me?
Blood Sweat and Ears
No Lobe Lost
Bite of the Century
Because you're dumb enough to pay for it.
Pay Per Chew

1 ) When interviewed after the fight, Tyson's first remarks were that
"It tasted like chicken."

(Tue Jul 22 1997 07:14)

houswife has participated here using at least 5 different
handles that i know of. she/he used to e-mail me regularly
supposedly from new zealand. i recently tried to e-mail
she/he and the mail was returned as un-deliverable due
to that url being shut-down. must've changed to another
isp or kicked the bucket or was a gov't plant looking
for ioti.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 07:16)
Mornin Tort and Panda!...Tort:ding ding!...anyone know of a good source for info. on short selling as my friend JIN wants some info. on that subject...I don't do short selling cause don't the markets always go UP..
The Dollar is soarin this morn....

(Tue Jul 22 1997 07:20)
Mornin Cherokee!! How bout know of a good place JIN could access for info. on short selling....and JIN you better not be thinkin of shorting GOLD as we don't tolerate that kind of stuff on this forum....

(Tue Jul 22 1997 07:23)
Several "Aftermath of Devaluation" stories from Thailand.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 07:24)
Good one!!! am off ta read The Urinal.....not piss in it!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 07:26)
Mornin Donald! and I thought I was obsessed with Asia....

(Tue Jul 22 1997 07:27)
@Abbotts house
Hey guys give me a go. I know its 3 strikes and your out but I didnt
know CIA=Reuters+Hedge Fund. Or was it CIA+Reuters=Hedge Fund. Hang on
it must have been Reuters=Hedge Fund+CIA.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 07:32)
Breakfast re-hash from London. Gold: What is wrong with the market?


By Robert Chote

The gold market has been looking pretty sick since the Australian central
bank announced it had sold most of its reserves. What's going on? The
Reserve Bank confessed earlier this month it had sold 167 tonnes of gold
since the beginning of the year, more than two-thirds of its total holdings.
This knocked the gold price to a 12-year low of less than $316 ( 189 ) an

The price has recovered a little, but still ended last week at only $324 an
ounce. The fall undermined the share prices of gold producers worldwide
and left Australia's own industry furious. Mr Toni Poli, chairman of one
low-cost producer in Western Australia, Eagle Mining, called it "the nail in
the coffin".

But central banks have been selling gold for some time, haven't they? True,
although gold industry lobbyists point out that 19 countries were net
buyers last year against only 16 net sellers.

The Australians are also relatively modest players. The recent sales have
probably demoted it from 18th in the world gold holdings league table to
about 30th, leaving it with about as much in its vaults as Thailand and

Other sellers have disposed of more: the Netherlands unloaded 300 tonnes
last year, but still has 10 times as much left as Australia. Belgium has also
been a heavy seller since 1991 and plans to dispose of another 134

So why the fuss? It is the motive for its sales that makes Australia different
- and the fact that it is a major gold producer which might be thought to
have more interest than most countries in maintaining a high price.

The Dutch and Belgian gold sales are assumed to have been in part to
raise money so they can meet the fiscal criteria in the Maastricht Treaty.
Switzerland is also planning disposals, but specifically to finance a
humanitarian foundation following the controversy over its holdings of Nazi

What were the Australians up to then? The Reserve Bank seems simply to
be behaving like an ordinary investor. It is rebalancing its portfolio to
improve the return that it earns on its wealth. The possibility that others
might follow suit pushed the gold price down three times as much in the
week after the Australian announcement than other central bank sales have
on average.

That makes sense, I suppose. After all, gold does not earn any interest and
it has hardly been a great store of value. That is not strictly true. An
estimated 50 central banks realise a small return on their gold reserves by
leasing them to the market. Banks and bullion dealers then lend them on to
producers and fabricators who use it to fund hedging positions or as
working stock. This yields a return of 1 or 2 per cent - not much, but
comparable with holding Japanese yen.

As for gold's performance as a store of value, this depends on the time
period you look at. The gold price peaked at about $850 an ounce in
1980, dropped to $320 an ounce in 1993, rebounded to $417 early last
year and has fallen since.

But although gold has been a poor investment in recent years, enthusiasts
point out that it has given a return comparable to US Treasury bonds over
a century or so.

Would we be better off if other central banks followed Australia's
example? Yes, but there would be winners and losers, according to a
recent study published by the US Federal Reserve.

This suggested that the immediate sale of all government gold reserves
would produce an improvement in economic welfare worth $368bn. Most
of this would take the form of higher government revenues. But the price
would fall from the $350 an ounce assumed at the time of the study to
$309 an ounce, hurting private stock-pilers and mine owners.

If it was only the US government that sold its gold, the study estimates that
the price would have fallen to only $340 an ounce. The US would have
received $89bn in revenue, 10 per cent more than if all governments sold.

"Each government makes more revenue if it sells before other governments
either sell or announce a sale," the study argues.

"This may be important in explaining why some governments have made
sizeable sales over the last several years and why there are rumours of
future sales."

So what's stopping the others? Most central bankers are still reluctant to
dispose of an asset which offers insurance against inflation and is not
someone else's liability - hence gold tends to do well when government
bonds do badly.

And in countries such as Germany, where hyperinflation has destroyed
paper currencies twice this century, it retains an almost mystical allure as
the ultimate store of value in the event of catastrophe.

A new younger generation of central bankers around the world thinks this
overly sentimental, so gold sales are likely to continue here and there. But
we have yet to see one of the really big stockpilers - the US, Germany,
Switzerland, France or Italy - announce significant disposals. If and when
that happens, recent market turbulence may look like a storm in a teacup.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 07:34)

Who's on first, What's on second, Idunno's on third.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 07:37)
TED: Be sure to remember to wash your hands. Ink stains you know.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 07:45)
Ted, you are sounding a lot like Ceasar, Shakespeare style. If the Urinal yields any nuggets pass them along.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 07:49)
Donald: Will do Bro...ABN Gold down a nickle...From the WSJ:"Investors are borrowing more than ever to ride the bull market in stocks and bonds.
Investors owed more than 113 last month in borrowings against the securities held in their brokerage accounts ( known as margin debt ) up from 98.9 billion in April. The biggest two month jump since 1987"...That year rings a bell but I can't quite place what happened that year....

(Tue Jul 22 1997 07:53)
Good afternoon JIN!...Greenspan speaks at 2PM ( EST ) today and at 10AM ( EST ) tomorrow....and the world holds its breath for Greasepan to utter...

(Tue Jul 22 1997 08:05)
Required reading for doomsday types....Virtual Euro: Risks in interim phase gain


By Wolfgang Mnchau, Economics Correspondent

Assuming that everything goes wrong with monetary union in the first three
years, there is a risk that Germany could end up with hyper- inflation, that
other countries could default on their national debt and that currency
speculators could make a killing.

This scenario might seem far-fetched, but it is currently the subject of an
intensive debate about the stability of the so-called interim period for
economic and monetary union between 1999 and 2001.

Emu is seen most at risk during this period, when national currencies will
continue to circulate as odd denominations of the euro. During those three
years, the euro will be a "virtual currency".

There will be a European central bank and a single interest rate, and
companies and individuals will be able to carry out transactions in euros.
But euro banknotes and coins will not arrive until 2002.

The argument about stability in the interim phase was triggered recently by
Mr Walter Eltis, emeritus fellow of Exeter College, Oxford, in an article in
Prospect, a monthly magazine published in the UK.

Mr Eltis writes that Emu could face premature death as investors desert
their national currencies in favour of the D-Mark during this transitional

He argues that investors will pile into D-Marks especially when budget
deficits in other countries increase. Depending on the scale of such a shift,
D-Mark bank notes and coins could flood the whole Emu area and end up
as Europe's single currency well before euro banknotes arrive in 2002.

But if Emu were to break up before 2002, Germany would end up with a
hyper-inflationary supply of D-Marks.

"For a massive printing of D-Marks will leave most Germans, not least the
directors of the Bundesbank, more than unhappy," he says.

Mr Avinash Persaud, head of currency research at JP Morgan,
acknowledges that there is a risk, but describes it as vastly exaggerated.
"What is needed for monetary union is the pooling of central bank
reserves," he said.

"It is imperative that when the public take French francs to the Banque de
France and ask for D-Marks in exchange, that on the other side the
Bundesbank merrily prints D-Marks for the French because we have a
pooled set of reserves. If there is a restraint, then monetary union is

According to the Maastricht treaty, national reserves are pooled only up to
Ecu50bn ( 32.9bn ) , a level which may prove insufficient if everybody
decides to invest in D-Marks.

Under normal circumstances, if Emu survives and if euros replace national
banknotes in 2002 as scheduled, then a strategy of buying D-Marks would
not pay off.

Changing Italian liras into euros would be the same as changing liras into
D-Marks, and then changing D-Marks into euros.

But it also means that buying D-Marks carries no risk and no cost either -
assuming that there will be no cost in switching from one currency to

There is even an outside chance of huge currency gain, if Emu were to
collapse before January 2002, or even if just one or two countries decided
to withdraw from it.

From the investor's point of view, the D-Mark carries no downside but a
potentially huge upside.

Mr Martin Brookes, European economist at Goldman Sachs in London,
said that this catastrophe scenario mixed up cause and effect. He said any
conceivable break-up would reflect politics, not money flows.

He makes two points. First, governments will re-denominate their debt
from national currencies into euros in 1999, thereby limiting the degree to
which investors could switch into D-Mark assets after 1999, as the
number of such assets will be diminishing.

Secondly, he says, the extent to which investors would try to switch their
bank accounts into D-Mark accounts would be limited. Under the
Maastricht treaty, national denominations will only be legal tender in their
home countries during the transitional period.

A strategy of "piling into D-Marks" would then become a purely
speculative act.

People would still need to keep their current accounts in national
currencies or in euros to pay for rent, mortgages and consumption, unless
of course they packed up and moved to Germany.

Mr Brookes said this law limited the disaster scenario. The argument that
piling into D-Marks could prove inflationary - let alone hyper-inflationary -
for Germany, applies only to the extent that money is actually spent in

While this is true in a technical sense, the Bundesbank could still be
nervous about printing unlimited amounts of D-Marks, as long as there is
any risk - however small and for whatever reason - that Emu could break

Mr Brookes said that "the risks to Emu during this period relate more to
European politics than to the actions of speculators".

Mr Persaud outlined another possible danger. If a country withdraws from
Emu, it is likely to do so under severe political and economic
circumstances, which in all likelihood would trigger a massive devaluation
of the national currency against the euro.

"A country that wants to leave would have to embrace the risk of default
on its national debt at the same time," he says.

The political, financial and economic risks of a collapse are therefore so
intense that EU governments will try to struggle to make Emu work if and
when it gets off the ground.

It is probably the same fear of the unknown which has kept the project
together so far.

Lan Man
(Tue Jul 22 1997 08:31)
U.S. Mint Reports Increased Sales!
Bill Buckler and all: See K2 for details

(Tue Jul 22 1997 08:44)

Any guesses about Mr. Greenspan's testimony? Will it be "The Tempest", or "Much Ado About Nothing"?

(Tue Jul 22 1997 08:51)
AURIC: I was wondering what kind of remarks he might receive from the other side of the table. I am sure that business people and farmers back home have been talking to their Congressman about the "high dollar" and the competitive difficulties it creates. If it comes up, watch his response and any possible market reaction for insights.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 09:16)
Ho...hum!! Pa up limit again up $6.20 ... limit up again this morning...Russian lend-lease 1942 Dodge trucks "go no karborator" I guess...Go SWC go....!!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 09:19)
@Shiny white stuff
Looks like the PGMs are off to the races again today...and it seems to me D.A. predicted this move. T'would be nice to see the uptick reflected in the share prices of SWC and PDL/PDLCF ( but won't hold my breath ) .

Surprise/surprise ( if anyone still cares ) : Front page article in the Toronto Globe and Mail today says, yes, de Guzman did the Bre-X salting...60 oz of gold bought from a local artisanal type was used to salt the cores on a pool table. It was rather cleverly if crudely done, and he would have needed help.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 09:25)
Read this story about the lack of quality workers available to US companies and tell me inflation won't be far behind.....


(Tue Jul 22 1997 09:28)

Scirocco - What's your point?


Tort - Low level burrito residue wafting into your vicinity.
EBN gold up a nickel, unchanged from last update five minutes ago. Or maybe
I hit reload too quickly. I'm off to play with the light switches in my huge mansion.

( This imitation of Earl/TED/Cherokee's highest achievements in writing sponsored by Walt Disney's "Fantasia". Celebrity voices provided by paid impressionists.
Huge mansion actually a double-wide in a trailer park, light switch actually
a toggle on a battery-operated Coleman. )

(Tue Jul 22 1997 09:37)
Comex report: Gold up .50, Silver up 4.2 cents,and Platinum up 6.50...
Tort: What did I tell you....

(Tue Jul 22 1997 09:48)

TED - If you think I am Scirocco ( or Sirocco or however it was spelled ) ,
you are sadly mistaken. Of course, you have been sadly mistaken
before, so this doesn't surpise me. I am not the only person who tires
of your constant need to post information which we all have access to.
It would be like me posting at 9:36 p.m. that "The time is 9:36 p.m.,
up one minute from one minute ago." I'm just glad someone else posted
it before me, so you couldn't discount it as "Hep-rat's vendetta" or whatever
you use to delude yourself into believing your posts are immune to

(Tue Jul 22 1997 09:53)
John-hepcat: I'm writing in regards to your response to my bet. Here's what you said ( in brackets ) :

[[Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:25
john ( ) :

Scotty - This sounds like a great bet, only I would change two things:
1. It's not enough that I get the dollar figure correct. I must be correct
out to two decimal places, and predict where it will be at 20, 10, and
5 minutes before the close.
2. Since you obviously spent a lot of time saying what I must do
while avoiding any prediction of your own, why don't you get a print-
out of your suggested "bet" and fold it origami-like into the shape of
an anus.]]

As for paragraph #1 - agreed. As for paragraph #2, I am not avoiding a prediction. I am simply betting you that gold WILL NOT be at $325 per oz on 29 July. Your previous statements clearly stated that you felt ( indeed bragged ) that gold would be $325 on 29 July - and you were quite enthusiastic about taking on all comers against that figure. I am challenging you with that prediction. I believe you are wrong. My USD10,000 wager stands.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 09:58)
Mornin Scotty! Comex Gold up 2.40 and Silver up 5.7 cents...It's a beautiful day....the ocean is calm and I'm off fer a little seakayaking..

(Tue Jul 22 1997 10:01)

Scotty - I said that gold would close at $325 +/- $5.
That bet still stands. Don't misrepresent what I said.
Don't insult me. I am not your mark.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 10:06)
That's short for 2weeks

Very nice Y2K link. Y2K = year 2000. On Jan 1, 2000, many computers will not know whether it is 1900 or 2000 ( simplistic explanation ) . I believe that anticipation of the world Y2K crisis is already affecting gold prices ( slightly ) . If the problem is increasingly perceived as severe, AU will respond accordingly. I am a professional software engineer with an MS from Johns Hopkins. I cannot tell you whether the world financial system will crumble as a result of the Y2K issue. I do not work on it. But I will say this - many of those who have thoroughly investigated the matter believe that it will. Others believe the storm will be weathered.

It is increasingly the practice of analysts to attempt to gain advantage by looking as far as possible down the tunnel of time. In that light, any equation that predicts the direction of AU prices _must_ incorporate Y2K considerations. It is not that far away! Those with a vested interest in the continuance of civilization have every reason to PR the problem down to a minimum, of course.

Y2K represents a tangible justification for the doomsayers. At the stroke of midnight 12/31/99, we all will have a date with the fair Cassandra.

There are millions of lines of code to be fixed, and only a few hundred days left. You see, software is a strange substance. More valuable than gold - one line of it, 40 characters or so, costs anywhere from $10 to $500. Just one line! With a weight of far less than a gram. Infinitely malleable. Powerful enough to launch a nuclear weapon. It bows only to DNA ( which is just living software ) . And billions and billions of lines of it rule our lives.

Go to your mailbox. Is there anything there that was not generated by a computer? These dinosaurs - are they prepared to survive the great comet Y2K? It is even now entering the solar system of the electronic heavens. Destination: your job. Your money. Your records. Your life.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 10:17)
I go out for an hour to do some errands and gold is up three bucks. Does anyone need any errands done? I'll be glad to help.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 10:18)
Gold & Silver Future Good - BUT DOW BEAR TO BEGIN JULY 28
Astrological Investor interviews expert energy & mining industry entrepreneur/astrologer, who foresees Precious Metals Bull, but Wall Street Bear. SEE Astrological Investor: -

(Tue Jul 22 1997 10:19)
Morning on the farm
Ham and eggs cooking, the dog is barking at the reds out by the north barn, and gold is up!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 10:19)
PM are hot this morning
Well..."somebody" is buying all the PM's this morning...look at Pa..up $8.20 and Pl up over $ up, si up....looks like a good day for Ted to go Kayaking, huh..

(Tue Jul 22 1997 10:19)

2 - I went to my mailbox. I did not find any food, water, electricity,
clothing, sunlight, recreation, or others of my species I found only enough air to sustain me for a few hours, and a little bit of dirt clung to my index finger when
I drug it across the bottom. I can conclude one of two things:
1. I cannot live in my mailbox.
2. The contents of my mailbox have nothing to do with continued survival,
unless all mailboxes are programmed to violently explode in the
year 2000.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 10:25)
2 WEEKS: Do you know Louis Whitcomb at Johns Hopkins? That was a good post. I know of what you speak.

Senator Blutarsky
(Tue Jul 22 1997 10:27)

2 Weeks--I had a similar thought. What about the upcoming time when Greenspan will become a lame duck? I doubt he will serve a fourth term. A new Federal Reserve Chairman will be at the helm in August 1999. That's about two years away.

John N.
(Tue Jul 22 1997 10:37)
Retearivs sed non felix hepatici

I love the smell of singed shorts in the morning!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 10:38)

You need to do that sea kayaking more often. This works as well as your beach walks.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 10:40)
Bless ya, granny!
( Donald - I don't know Louis W. Thanks for asking. )

Sample Y2K prediction: "You will not have a salaried job on March 1, 2001."

(Tue Jul 22 1997 10:40)
@are U watching?
Pleae don't tease, just SQUEEEEEEZE!!!
It looked like it was going to correct for a few days, but lo and behold, it's moving up.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 10:44)
TWO DOWN, TWO TO GO - U.S. Mint Prices Platinum at $695/oz
Platinum UP $8, Palladium UP LIMIT ( $8 ) & U.S. Mint sells out ONE OUNCE PLATINUM COIN FOR $696! One Ounce $695! REread TWO DOWN, TWO TO GO for future gold action:

(Tue Jul 22 1997 10:45)
be thankful
It is unfortunate that a boorish sociopath should make things so unpleasant for the majority of us. One referring to himself as hepcat speaks volumes. I may be down on my gold stocks, but I am ever thankful that I am not him.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 10:50)
2 WEEKS: My son is a programmer at the U.S. Patent Office working on that very problem, before that he was at NIH in Bethesda on the same thing. I am involved with a small operation that needs $24,000 of hardware upgrade BEFORE it can tackle the software part. Barron's did a piece on how MIS budgets will be spent on this problems and not available for a lot of hardware that can be postponed. The market has ignored the warnings.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 10:58)
Platinum futures UP $13.70, Palladium UP $9, however cannot get a current read on latter -it may be up even more. Anyone have real-time quote on PA?

(Tue Jul 22 1997 10:58)

Vronsky - Please, you are becoming increasingly strident.
The U.S. Platinum coin you mention is a limited edition 1 ounce proof Eagle coin,
the first in a proposed series. Where in your post do you point out it is a proof
coin, far different from bullion platinum? The mint could have charged double
for it and it would have sold out. It has absolutely no bearing on the price of
platinum, nor is it a reflection of the current platinum market.
A 1913 Liberty nickel sold for over 1 million dollars at auction recently.
Does this mean that the price of nickel is going up to $3-4 million/ounce?
Get serious. Post fact and not fantasy. You're as bad as those
Family of Eagles shills, selling 1/10 ounce gold Eagles for $70.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:02)

WSF - This is an investment site, not a amateur psychoanalysis site.
The bottom line is: Who came out ahead over the last year with regards
to money - People who listened to you, or people who listened to me?
Do you have any other excuses for why you didn't sell your gold stocks?
Maybe because it is a cleansing experience to be poor?

Old Gold
(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:04)
message from Mars
Andy Smith: The Martians are coming to get you!

Pizza Man
(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:13)
at the ball park
Ladies and Gentlemen give a warm round of applause for the next
designated hitter George Soros? Raaaaw Raaaaw!
Or is this just the results of rollover for August short positions?

(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:14)
Kitco's Filter
Boy, I sure could use that filter this morning...sick of rat-cat!!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:17)
2weeks: I don't know how bad things will get as we near 2000, but I predict there will be a major shortage of programmers in Europe. They are much further behind in this work than in America.
Current rates for contract programmers here are up to USD $100. and hour.
I am not taking any long term contracts into 1998, since rates may
be much higher, all depending on how far behind large corporations are in their year 2000 conversions. They will have little choice but to pay whatever the going market rate will be, to avoid systems failures.
Some have speculated at $500. / hour in 98/99.
Companies will also have to pay large bonusses to avoid employees from defecting.

Steve - Perth
(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:18)
CHEROKEE: Re: your email on DOW 8000 ( updated ) , can be found at
Also, I have a suspicion the Australian Financial Review may want to
reprint the "skeptical investor" column, which I forwarded on to them.
Just a hunch!!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:25)
@ Aussie
Major economic essay at

40% Richer
(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:27)
Chicken counting orgy

(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:29)
last warning

russia is the key japan is a sideshow the bull is charging in the form of a bear ..uplink severed..

(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:31)
Good morning. Comex report: Gold up 2.50567, Silver up 7.25678 cents,and Platinum up 16.50784...
Tort: Great Joke....
Cherokee: I love you...
John HepCat: get lost....
Going for a walk along the ocean... beautiful day... windy... few fair weather clouds... Beans for lunch... EBN gold up 2.75 !!!!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:35)

The German stock market is up 3%! What the heck is that all about?

(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:36)

Your post prompted me to do a quick check on the system that runs our commodities and currency trading. Besides doing the actual signal generation it keeps track of positions, produce P&L's, faxes orders, lots of neat analytical reports, and a variety of other junk. I started work on this system in 1988. Much to my great relief my system is Y2K compliant already. A close examination of the code which deals with dates in the system reveals that had I not written it to accomodate dates beyond the year 2000 it would have required 1 line of code to repair the damage. Something like 'if year less than 25 year equals year plus 100' Interestingly enough my databases suffer from the exact symptoms of Y2k disease, namely 2 byte storage for the year. However, 2 bytes is large enough to store a positive integer greater than 65000. Many years indeed. Before you point out the obvious flaw that this fix will break anything which needs a date prior to 1925 ( like a birthday ) I will counter that a system written without the ability to span centuries would have failed from day one, as there are many people still alive that were born before 1900.

This whole idea that there are scads of giant financial institutions each with hundreds of millions of lines of 30 year old code just waiting to crash is silly. This problem has had so much press that surely an effort to fix it is already well under way. In addition, people will also likely focus their efforts on those systems that are of the highest priority.

As far as the financial systems go, there is great centralization which limits the number of systems which have to be examined or repaired in order that the backbone of the transaction processing world is secure. Consider that in the U.S. securities industry all of the share balances held by clearing firms are held at the Depository Trust Company. All the firms which clear securities ( low hundreds? ) must be transactionally compliant with this institution. In addition, even though there are ( guessing here ) a hundred clearing firms there are very few software packages available for the job. The point of this is that all the software which is responsible for clearing all the security trading in the U.S. is probably limited to few packages distributed to perhaps a 100 clearing houses plus centralized software at DTC. ( I know something of this stuff because I did a management consulting job for Quick & Reilly seven years ago examining and making recomendations with regards to their entire systems infrastructure )

I have no doubt that there will be some problems associated with this bug, but to place a large amount of credence in the musings of someone that advises 'moving away from urban centers where the mainframes are located' is perhaps unwarranted.

Steve - Perth
(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:43)'re.gonna.get.caught
D.A: Re: French Porn accidentally screened on Arab Kids TV show.
A few years ago during the sleepy Aussie summer months, while everyone was watching cricket, the screens suddenly switched to a full on blue
movie. We think the guys in the master control room at Channel 9, ( Perth or Sydney ) were watching it, & flicked it onto broadcast mode by mistake. The ratings sky-rocketed for a few minutes....

(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:43)
Short Sellign Pages/Sites
Jin : I read thefollowing article from the archives of Webzine " Worth ". This is a good starting point for anyone who's interested in short-selling. It's a pity that it is virtually not possible to short sell in Down Under Australia.

Worth - June 1996

" Live Short and Prosper" by Susan Lee

Paul Asquith and Lisa Meulbroek investigated short selling between 1976 and 1993. ( Reminder: Short selling describes the funny practice of borrowing stock, selling it, waiting for its price to go down, and then purchasing it to "pay back" the lender; the profit comes in the spread between the price at which it's sold and the price at which it's bought back. ) Asquith and Meulbroek's paper "An Empirical Investigation of Short Interest," released in 1995, argues that there is a strong negative relationship between the amount of short selling in a stock and the stock's subsequent performance. Simply put, stocks that attract short-sellers are more likely to go down than up.

Moreover, in the 18-year period Asquith and Meulbroek observed, returns were even more negative for firms that were heavily shorted for more than a month, both for the time the stocks were shorted and for the following two years.

This is an interesting result.

First, because it flies in the face of the conventional wisdom that short sales are a bullish--not bearish--indicator because they indicate future demand; that is,
short-sellers must eventually buy shares to replace their borrowed shares in order to cover their positions. Second, because it proves what some people have been
saying all along--that short-sellers really do know what they're doing.

Third, and most important, this study gives credence to the commonsense idea that since brokers and analysts pay much more attention to reasons for buying stocks than for selling, there is more positive than negative news. Thus, stocks about which there is negative information represent an inefficient part of the market, making it easier to find profitable opportunities on the short side than on the long.

So why don't more investors sell stocks short?

First, regulations governing short selling make it more difficult than buying long. There is something called th

(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:44)
Short Selling Pages/Sites
Jin : I read thefollowing article from the archives of Webzine " Worth ". This is a good starting point for anyone who's interested in short-selling. It's a pity that it is virtually not possible to short sell in Down Under Australia.

Worth - June 1996

" Live Short and Prosper" by Susan Lee

Paul Asquith and Lisa Meulbroek investigated short selling between 1976 and 1993. ( Reminder: Short selling describes the funny practice of borrowing stock, selling it, waiting for its price to go down, and then purchasing it to "pay back" the lender; the profit comes in the spread between the price at which it's sold and the price at which it's bought back. ) Asquith and Meulbroek's paper "An Empirical Investigation of Short Interest," released in 1995, argues that there is a strong negative relationship between the amount of short selling in a stock and the stock's subsequent performance. Simply put, stocks that attract short-sellers are more likely to go down than up.

Moreover, in the 18-year period Asquith and Meulbroek observed, returns were even more negative for firms that were heavily shorted for more than a month, both for the time the stocks were shorted and for the following two years.

This is an interesting result.

First, because it flies in the face of the conventional wisdom that short sales are a bullish--not bearish--indicator because they indicate future demand; that is,
short-sellers must eventually buy shares to replace their borrowed shares in order to cover their positions. Second, because it proves what some people have been
saying all along--that short-sellers really do know what they're doing.

Third, and most important, this study gives credence to the commonsense idea that since brokers and analysts pay much more attention to reasons for buying stocks than for selling, there is more positive than negative news. Thus, stocks about which there is negative information represent an inefficient part of the market, making it easier to find profitable opportunities on the short side than on the long.

So why don't more investors sell stocks short?

First, regulations governing short selling make it more difficult than buying long. There is something called the uptick ( or plus tick ) rule, which decrees that a short sale can occur only at a price above the last sale price. There's also a zero-tick rule, which says that a short sale can occur at a price equal to the last sale price, but only if the last price change was positive. In other words, you can't sell short if your target stock is going down. Then, there are so-called prudent-investor rules that prohibit big institutional investors, like public pension plans, from selling short altogether.

Second, short selling is more expensive than buying long. Money from a short sale is not available to the seller but is escrowed as collateral for the owner of the borrowed shares. ( Although large short-sellers may receive interest payments, called rebates, on the sale proceeds, small investors usually do not. ) In addition to the proceeds that stay as collateral, short-sellers must deposit 50 percent of the market value of the shorted shares as a margin requirement. If the price of the stock goes up, the short-seller will get a margin call and must deposit more funds.

Also, short-sellers must reimburse the owner of the stock for any dividends that accrue during the period the shares are borrowed. What's more, there is a tax penalty on success. Even if the short position is held for more than a year, profits are subject to the short-term capital-gains tax, which can be more than 11 percent higher than the long-term capital-gains rate.

Third, short selling is considered dangerous. When you take a long position in a stock, the greatest risk is that it will fall to zero and you will lose all the money you paid. Your worst loss is known and bounded. When you take a short position, however, the greatest risk is that the price of the stock will rise forever-meaning there is, theoretically at least, no limit on your loss.

There is also a danger, especially in a rising market, that at some point you will be unable to meet a margin call and have to purchase your stocks at a loss, before
your short position yields a profit. What's more, shorts are vulnerable to a squeeze--a deliberate attempt by investors who are long in the company to reduce the lendable supply of shares by madly buying them and demanding delivery. This pushes up the price and forces the unfortunate short into the market to buy shares at the higher price.

And finally, short selling has an image problem. A bad image problem. After all, short-sellers are hoping for failure and misfortune. This leads to the somewhat hysterical charge that shorts are betting against America.

Sounds scary and unsavory, huh? Nonetheless, there are good reasons to sell short.

The interesting thing about selling short is that you can do well by doing good. A short-seller does well by investing in an inefficient part of the market--where
negative information is not widely and rapidly known--and makes money by exploiting this inefficiency.

And you can do good because your short sale conveys negative information and thus makes pricing more efficient. Consider: All opinions should be reflected in prices. But when optimists buy and pessimists do nothing, there is an upward bias on prices. When pessimists sell, that upward bias is corrected.

Just as important, short selling can be used to control risk. If your portfolio is 100 percent long, you are totally exposed to the risk inherent in a falling market. If,
however, some part of your portfolio is in short positions--stocks that will make money for you when the market falls--you have hedged your market risk. If the market goes up, however, you will make money on your long positions but lose money on your shorts.

This is, in fact, the classic hedge-fund strategy discovered independently and at about the same time by Robert Wilson and A. W. Jones. Back in the late 1950s, Wilson wanted an approach that would allow him to leverage without being forced to sell at a bad moment. "The worst time to sell is when the market is declining," he says. "I wanted to buy shares on margin, sure, but I didn't want my holdings destroyed in a market crash."

His solution was to create a portfolio of long and short positions. Then, if his longs collapsed, the profits on his short position would meet his margin calls and vice
versa. Wilson, though known as a legendary short-seller, was always net long in his portfolio. He picked strong growth stocks for his long positions and vulnerable
companies for his shorts.

Another reasonable motive for short selling is that--difficult though it is to believe after the last several years--the stock market does go down. And when it does, the weak sisters implode. Bill McGarr of the McGarr Fund, for example, runs a 100 percent short portfolio. Currently, he's pessimistic on the most popular investment idea of 1995--technology stocks. "We invest in excess," he says. "Technology has been bid up the most, and it will be bid down the most."

Convinced? Well, before you rush out to open a margin account ( the only kind of account in which you can sell stocks short ) , here are some ploys to keep you out
of deep water.

*Even though a margin account gives you the opportunity to leverage, don't do it. McGarr, for instance, tries to keep the value of his shorts equal to the amount of
equity in his partnership. ( Keeping your account in balance also avoids what almost all short-sellers agree is a hideous experience--getting a margin call from your broker. )

*Limit your losses to a set percentage of your portfolio. Typically, when a particular position does more than 2 to 3 percent worth of damage, short-sellers reduce
that position pronto.

*Be prepared to close your position if there is a change in the fundamentals on which that position was based. A dramatic surprise calls for dramatic action.

*Confine your shorts to large-capitalization, liquid stocks to avoid getting short-squeezed.

*Forget about timing. The uptick and zero-tick rules prohibit shorting a falling stock, so resign yourself to being early in your strategy.

You can also short mutual funds. Yes, mutual funds. Currently, there are two opportunities. Fidelity allows short selling against some of its Select Portfolio funds,
such as American Gold, Automotive, Biotechnology, Energy, Environmental Services, Food and Agriculture, Health Care, Medical Delivery, Precious Metals and Minerals, Regional Banks, Telecommunications, and Utilities Growth. And Jack White & Co., a broker-dealer, offers short selling on about 20 mutual funds, including the Janus Fund and the Founders funds.

One final note. Just because a particular stock has lots of short interest doesn't necessarily mean adios for the company. Presstek, a printing-process company, has
been a fave with the shorts. Indeed, it has been heavily shorted for the past three years, during which time it has gone from about $8.50 a share in June 1993 to $108 as of April 1 this year. Adios, shorts.

Contributing editor Susan Lee writes "Mind Your Own Business" monthly. She is an economist and author of Hands Off! Why the Government Is a Menace to Economic Health, just published by Simon & Schuster. E-mail her at

(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:46)

Sirocco - Tears of laughter are streaming down my face as I write this.
( "Cherokee - I love you" was the catalyst ) . I don't know if I should
attack you as Sirocco or as Sirocco nee TED.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:50)
International Analyst, James Dines Rule of Gold Countertrend says: The price of gold tends to move generally opposite to the rest of the stock market. See July 21, 1997 Study at:

(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:51)
Does anyone know if Fort Knox actually has any GOLD left. I seem to remember that it was moved to storage vaults in New York.

bb fisher
(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:52)
mr hepcat@com
to all:

the newer tone of mr hepcat is much more pleasing to read. less back slapping and more information.. perhaps a bit smugly presented but a nice improvement nontheless.

more info, a larger peek into your intellect and less 3-2-5 rant and you will have made a kitco, kitcat convert in me!

for those of you who think i just did the equivalent of spitting on mother teresa.

i see a change and am pleased to acknowledge it.

Steve - Perth
(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:54)
Give you a tip: DON'T MESS with Dr. Mahathir of Malaysia. He is a pretty switched on dude. Highly respected, & has a good head on him. Give me Mahathir over Soros ANY day!! At the good Dr is creating jobs for people

(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:55)

As our EMU friends devalue their way to glory it is worth keeping an eye on the price of gold in DM. We are approaching the key level of 600 ( 1.82 * 330 ) . A break above that level and subsequently over 613 will herald a multiyear breakout ( to the upside ) .

Someone posted an article here about the possible DM printing explosion which would occur in the transitional EMU years. This is a very interesting thought and one that bears great investigation.

Meanwhile, as the Europeans devalue their currencies their bond markets can not get enough of it. Most extraordinary.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 11:59)

Don't know if you care but our long only system got a buy signal on Oats for this AM. First grains we've owned since the spring.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 12:11)
Still Thankful
Since 1993, when I first purchased gold shares, my shares have on average doubled, based on current prices. Given that I sold at higher prices and repurchased at lower ( albeit higher than todays ) , my returns are yet higher. A better than double in four years is, by conventional standards, quite admirable, particularly if you believe, as I do, that you are exposed to much less downside risk than by being long the SPX.
So I've had a bad year- I can still get out ahead - and I'm still thankful I'm not you.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 12:21)

WSF - Given that you've done so well, why the absence of magnanimity?
Please listen to my question again, WSF, and don't refer to 1993, because
last year was not 1993, and no one could post on thie site in 1993: Over the last year, who did better - People who listened to you, or people who listened to me?
That was the question, WSF, and if you still fail to comprehend the question,
then I sure don't want to be like you either, cause you could have Alzheimer's.

Steve - Perth
(Tue Jul 22 1997 12:22)
From Australian Financial Review 23rd July
IS THIS another sign of a market nearing its high?
Henry Kaufman, the legendary Dr Gloom from his days
at Salomon Brothers in the 1980s, is teaming up with
another well-known bond bear, economist Chuck
Lieberman from Chase Manhattan, to start up their own
hedge fund.

The two will be joined be another Chase economist,
blonde Sally Kleinman -- the hedge fund is known on
Wall Street as Goldilocks and the two bears.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 12:23)
D.A.....funny you should say that 'bout Oats was checkin it out last night, went long on beans,
Thanks D.A.
cheers ( clink ) Kev

(Tue Jul 22 1997 12:27)
D.A.. what month you lookin at U or Z u is what I was looking at

(Tue Jul 22 1997 12:34)
I have disdained your meanness ( to others ) for quite some time. I believe that makes me magnanimous, at least for a while. Since I don't know anyone who listened to you, and I didn't offer my advice to anyone, your question is not well-posed. I did quite nicely, in spite of being wrong ( or early ) about the big macro picture. But even if I had lost my shirt, I'd still be thankful that I'm not you.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 12:36)
A beautiful day on the "high seas" with Loons galore....Dow ( up 54 ) bein pretty bold considering Greasepan speaks shortly...XAU up 1.65...

(Tue Jul 22 1997 12:44)
I'm new here..I just want to know what is hot today and the target..!!??Less than 2$ ( junior ) thanks!!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 12:57)
WSF - Since I don't know anyone who listened to you????
What does that mean??

{FLASHBACK: NASA reported scientists landed on the moon today.
However, since WSF didn't know any of the astronauts personally,
this event is probably insignificant}

{FLASHBACK: Martin Luther King was shot in Memphis today. However,
since a significant portion of the population really didn't have a vested
interest in what he said or did anyhow, his life or death probably won't
have much of an impact}

Multiple times on this site, people have said: Well, yeah, you were right,
but no one listened to you, so it doesn't make a difference.

If you are poking yourself in the eye with a stick and I suggest "Hey, if
you continue to do that to yourself, you could really damage your vision",
it is a really effective comeback after you have blinded
yourself to say, "Yeah, you were right, but I didn't listen, so really your
advice was equivalent to being wrong"? Who is the person with a slippery hold
on reality? Who is the person who would be wise not to emulate the other?

(Tue Jul 22 1997 13:06)
to his followers
each stick on his own will be broken
a bundle will stand strong

Steve - Perth
(Tue Jul 22 1997 13:16)
Yesterday the Black Cockatoos ( Aussie Birds ) were flying in from the North. Rain is on it's way in a day or so. It is warmer at night now with a bit of cloud cover for a change. Cold without it!! The insomniac is off to bed. I should not have had that McFeast thing for dinner tonight. Disgusting.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 13:21)
I'm no technical expert, but I don't see the bottom on this chart that looks at ( mostly senior ) mining companies over the last 5 years. Can someone interpret the data for me? Thanks.


(Tue Jul 22 1997 13:36)
Are we having worldwide net problems? Lots of URL's are down,including Kitco most of the time. Is it just me?

(Tue Jul 22 1997 13:38)
All the News Fit to Print - and then some. If it isnt reported in our Daily News section, it AINT happened yet! From the USA & CANADA ( 24 ) , Europe ( 12 ) , South Africa ( 2 ) , Asia ( 14 ) , Australia ( 7 ) & South America ( 15 ) :

Robert W
(Tue Jul 22 1997 13:39)
@re isp problems, net problems
Donald: you are not alone

(Tue Jul 22 1997 13:41)
@Old Ironsides
With the mother of all battles ongoing in gold, Bart's 24-hr spot price chart looks like the Matterhorn. On another front, Stillwater currently up 3+% and NA Palladium up 5 1/2+%.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 13:43)
Anyone see the Abx news that they can produce gold at $55/oz? Comments?
see at

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jul 22 1997 13:44)
@Mary-Rose, is a Rose, is a Rose...
Wish to correct Mary-Rose's Mon 23:25 - She said I predicted a correction of the Dow to 5150 beginning July 28. That prediction was from an interview I did at Gold-Eagle with natural resource & mining entrepreneur/astrologer Chad C. Meek. That was his prediction. Of course, if he is right, I would be happy to mistakenly take the credit!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 13:49)
Opps. I'll try again:

(Tue Jul 22 1997 13:49)

This site claims to have information about the private ownership of precious metals in Russia. I had a devil of a time finding it. Some in English, some in Russian.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 13:51)
Try decaf
John: Calm down, yikes! I can't answer the question you posed, because in order to , I'd have to find someone who had listened to you, or have a listing of what you'd said. I don't have such a listing, although I can guess that if I did, it would be accurate and obnoxious. Get a grip! Are you really this distasteful, or are you like drivers who, inside the protection of their cars, feel free to be anti-social in ways they'd never be outside of their car? In either case, I'm glad I'm not you.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 13:54)
@no thorns

(Tue Jul 22 1997 14:01)
Here's the kind of thing you need to hear about your shares in gold
mining companies. Just received from Wayne Hubert, Investor Relations,
Meridian Gold: "...has not sold any of its gold forward, and is well
positioned to participate in upward movements in the gold price."

bb fisher
(Tue Jul 22 1997 14:08)
i for one@am


fill me in what i obviously have missed. you predicted gold would drop to
dare i say, 3-2-5.... last year when most if not all of us saw only a limited downside to bullions correction. that much we agree upon.

i believe, correct if i am wrong, that you now predict gold will continue to succumb to gravity on its journey towards 100 buck the ounce sometime in the next few years. are we on the same page so far?

i have no interest in arguing whatsoever. i would simply like to know the logical processes that have brought you to conclude golds journey is no where near done. clearly if the methods that told to call 3-2-5 last year are still at work i for one would like to hear the logic and charts.

if a public discourse is not acceptable for whatever reason please email me at

all this bile is detracting from the theories you clearly have about gold.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 14:11)
Vatican Denies Holding Nazi Gold

(Tue Jul 22 1997 14:16)
Heppster: Stop wasting Kitco space. Most readers are ignoring your postings anyway, but its really becomming annoying to have to scroll over
your diatribes.
If you do not have any meaningfull new contribution to make, then zipp it up....

(Tue Jul 22 1997 14:16)
@ Live Update:
So far, from the action in the financial markets, it appears that Mr. Greenspan has decided to spike the punch bowl one more time and give everyone a new high.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 14:26)
The major problem with Hepcat is that he was right with 3-2-5 and the regulars were wrong. Whiners should stop and contemplate how little they would have to say if his manner did not allow a self justifying angry retort to his highlighting of current embarrassments.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 14:38)
@truce please!
This used to be a decent and interesting forum, but all the bickering of late has taken its toll.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 14:50)
Donald: Many thanks - veRRRRRRRRRRRy inteRRRRRRRRRResting.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 14:54)
Regulars: I have read and enjoyed this site for many months, and I feel like I know many of you. My entering into a 'cat fight' was a mistake- I've been ignoring him as much as possible and hoping others would do the same. I felt compelled after he piled in on Ted. I will do as I hope you all will do- ignore felines.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 14:59)
MoreGold:$100/hr in Europe! That in itself tells you that already it is a crisis to some people. But, right now, it is _possible_ that ( we ) programmers hold the key to the future of civilization.

DA- I understand your skepticism and I share it. I remember the "crisis" of oil well fires after the Gulf War, which proved to be greatly overstated. Overstating potential crises is fashionable. However, as someone in the software field, I tell you, NOBODY BUT NOBODY EVER UNDERESTIMATES THE AMOUNT OF WORK INVOLVED IN A SOFTWARE TASK!! In my view, these are balancing factors.

You cannot see inside a computer graphically the way you can see a building or a bridge. Nor do programs rest upon anything as firm as land. They are chimerical, imaginary constructions, with a ruthless and unforgiving appetite for superhuman precision. For these and other reasons the best estimates are crippled with a high degree of variability. Union bricklayers lay brick at a pace that stays within a relatively small range; if one leaves, one takes his place. Not so with software engineers. Hills and mountains and traffic patterns are much more constant, more tangible, visible, and measurable than the mercurial frontier of information technology.

Do I have any idea how this will play out? No idea, no prediction. This is the point: If so many knowledgeable individuals, many with no ATG ( axe to grind ) are convinced that it is huge, the issue has substance, IMHO.

Relevant to gold? I think so.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 15:01)
in sack-o-tomatoes
40% Richer: Liked the Chicken Counting article. Thanks for posting it. I haven't seen Slate before . . . Nice 'zine.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 15:05)
RON: Re the Vatican. There is an old saying that says "nothing is official until it is officially denied"

bb fisher
(Tue Jul 22 1997 15:06)
for those of you who want to know if your computers will handle millenium 2000 compliance i have a tiny 3k program which when double clicked will give you the exact status of your machine. you don't even have to install it. email for a zip file

a reader
(Tue Jul 22 1997 15:27)
@ his desk
from the Los Angeles Times, section D, p. 1, 07/22/97; via 'The Washington Post', Paul Blustein, reporting ::
"" Top IMF Official Warns Thailand to Act Quickly ""
"ECONOMY: Blunt words reflect fears that the coutry, which refused to seek a loan, could set off a serious global financial crisis."
"Washington: A top official of the International Monetary Fund said Thailand must quickly shore up its troubled financial system and cut government spending to defuse an economic crisis that has shaken currency and stock markets across three contents. .... ( cont'd. ) ... ."

(Tue Jul 22 1997 15:29)
Greenspan: Economy slowing
Byron: Here's what he'd said so far.

George Cole
(Tue Jul 22 1997 15:34)
Dow rally
All: Looks like we're getting that Dow rally towards 8300 I projected last week. This postpones the gold bull a litle longer. But just a little. Big trend changes coming next month.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 15:36)
@ The Sky's The Limit:
Will someone please tell me whatever happened to "irrational exhurberance"?? Well as least the Gold Indexes are holding. Good sign from the gods.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 15:40)
@ No Problems:
Auroelf: Thanks. It good to know that everything is hoonkey-doordery ( sic )

(Tue Jul 22 1997 15:45)
24 Hr Warning
Someone alleging to be Big Trader made a post ( 11:29 ) and it sort of sounds like him. If it IS the BT of legend there is a high probability of a price spike within the next 24 hrs.

The alleged post is as follows: "russia is the key japan is a sideshow the bull is charging in the form of a bear ..uplink severed.."

Just out of curiosity does anyone have an even vague idea why russia should be a strong force in gold - or anything else for that matter ( except, of course, bankruptcy ) .

It is very hard to say if any of the BT posts over the last few months are actually from the BT of the beginning of the year. It will be interesting to see what happens.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 15:46)
Baloney on both

Ark: ( 13:49 ) ; Check ( 17:15 -7/21 ) post by R. Burke. He seems to have good handle on the process. Best to querry him from time to time.
Donald: Next thing you know Mother Teresa will be blamed for hiding nazi gold.

George Cole
(Tue Jul 22 1997 15:46)
Byron; Amen!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 15:54)

Having read the press accounts of Mr. Greenspans testimony and witnessed the action in the financial markets in response, tommorows piece by Steve Roach over at Morgan Stanley should be worth saving. Mr. Roach was a researcher at the Fed for many years and was betting that this time around Al would stand up and make the case that by all the measures available to them the economy was growing at a pace well above its long term sustainable trend. This, if one believes 'classical' economics will produce inflation, if left alone. That Al came out and in Roach's parlance 'embraced the new paradigm' hook, line and sinker has got to have sent Roach into shock. Perhaps tomorrow there will be another gold bug added to our ranks.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 15:55)

GFD ( 15:45 ) Maybe KGB is pissed off about the karburator and passed the info along to BT.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 15:57)
@DFW Airport
John the hepcat; A lot of us on this site would like you to answer this question, Is it dark where your head is ?????

(Tue Jul 22 1997 16:07)

"a reader" ( 15:27 ) May be a sign that Thialand don't wanna join the NWO. Better being poor and destitute than paying the selling your soul.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 16:09)

"a reader" ( 15:27 ) May be a sign that Thialand don't
wanna join the NWO. Better being poor and destitute than selling your soul.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 16:11)
D.A.: Don't count your chickens yet. This Fed chairman has a history of using Day 2 of his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to show the other side of what he said on Day 1, especially if there was a big market reaction to Day 1. Stay tuned.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 16:29)

He certainly has in the past, but it looks like this time he's just thrown in the towel, or gotten long SPU's. Maybe another 25 SP points on the upside tomorrow, with the DM heading for 2 and thier bonds rallying, and EMU starting on time with Poland, Estonia, and Croatia meeting the new relaxed criteria, and everything else just humming along. Our worldwide elected officials have done it this time, they've solved all the problems and everyone is going to be rich.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 16:40)
Auroelf ( 16:11 ) I think you are right on the money....after today Greasepan won't want people to get too exuberant or maybe even IRRATIONAL
....Hi Novice!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 16:54)
Hey Tort! Good one....about Vegas...I mean!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 17:00)
ANYONE: From a technical point of view. The Dow was a new high but not an intraday high. Is that considered a technical failure?

George Cole
(Tue Jul 22 1997 17:00)
gold and stocks
All: Bullion gave up its morning gains but still acted prettty well considering Alan's testimony and surging markets around the world. Not quite ignoring the bad news but taking it pretty well. A good omen for the metals and a bad omen for paper.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 17:03)
All: Let's not blame Greenspan. He is under orders to do and say what Rubin tells him. Rubin has already spoken about contingency plans being in place to contain the aftermath of a crash. They know what's coming. The game plan is to postpone the day of reckoning until after the next elections and let the new administration take the blame. Will they succeed?

(Tue Jul 22 1997 17:09)
GFD: Russia's Central Bank was one of the two major purchasers of gold last year, the other was China. Where they got the money, or their motive is still a mystery. Are we on the verge of a gold ruble bloc?

(Tue Jul 22 1997 17:11)
Jerry Favors
Donald : I am not a technician, but this forecast is an interesting read.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 17:21)
I'm enclosing information on Barrick earnings.
Appears from report they're looking for acquisitions.

Barrick Gold Corp. Earnings -3: Beat Output, Fincl Targets

Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ) , Toronto, said its first half performance exceeded its production and financial targets set for the period.

The company said while results were lower than a year earlier, its 1997 mine plan calls for higher production and corresponding improvement in financial performance in the second half of the year.

Barrick said cash operating costs in the second quarter were $186 an ounce, dowm from $196 an ounce a year earlier.

It said second quarter gold production was 731,360 ounces, for a six-month total of 1.4 million ounces. It said the Goldstrike Property will significantly increase its production in the second half of the year with a continued strong performance from the Meikle Mine, ensuring the company achieves its 1997 production target of over 3 million ounces.

The company said six-month cash operating costs averaged $191 an ounce, and should decline further with increased low-cost production from Goldstrike, where costs averaged $156 an ounce in the first half.

Barrick said it expects to report higher year-over-year earnings and cash flow for 1997 "and to be able to take advantage of opportunities in the current market."

Barrick is a gold mining company

"Dow Jones News Service"
"Copyright ( c ) 1997, Dow Jones & Company, Inc."

(Tue Jul 22 1997 17:22)
I'm enclosing information on Barrick earnings.
Appears from report they're looking for acquisitions.

Barrick Gold Corp. Earnings -3: Beat Output, Fincl Targets

Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ) , Toronto, said its first half performance exceeded its production and financial targets set for the period.

The company said while results were lower than a year earlier, its 1997 mine plan calls for higher production and corresponding improvement in financial performance in the second half of the year.

Barrick said cash operating costs in the second quarter were $186 an ounce, dowm from $196 an ounce a year earlier.

It said second quarter gold production was 731,360 ounces, for a six-month total of 1.4 million ounces. It said the Goldstrike Property will significantly increase its production in the second half of the year with a continued strong performance from the Meikle Mine, ensuring the company achieves its 1997 production target of over 3 million ounces.

The company said six-month cash operating costs averaged $191 an ounce, and should decline further with increased low-cost production from Goldstrike, where costs averaged $156 an ounce in the first half.

Barrick said it expects to report higher year-over-year earnings and cash flow for 1997 "and to be able to take advantage of opportunities in the current market."

Barrick is a gold mining company

"Dow Jones News Service"
"Copyright ( c ) 1997, Dow Jones & Company, Inc."

(Tue Jul 22 1997 17:27)
I'm enclosing Barrick earnings report...seems like they're looking acquisitions.

Barrick Gold Corp. Earnings -3: Beat Output, Fincl Targets

Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ) , Toronto, said its first half performance exceeded its production and financial targets set for the period.

The company said while results were lower than a year earlier, its 1997 mine plan calls for higher production and corresponding improvement in financial performance in the second half of the year.

Barrick said cash operating costs in the second quarter were $186 an ounce, dowm from $196 an ounce a year earlier.

It said second quarter gold production was 731,360 ounces, for a six-month total of 1.4 million ounces. It said the Goldstrike Property will significantly increase its production in the second half of the year with a continued strong performance from the Meikle Mine, ensuring the company achieves its 1997 production target of over 3 million ounces.

The company said six-month cash operating costs averaged $191 an ounce, and should decline further with increased low-cost production from Goldstrike, where costs averaged $156 an ounce in the first half.

Barrick said it expects to report higher year-over-year earnings and cash flow for 1997 "and to be able to take advantage of opportunities in the current market."

Barrick is a gold mining company.

"Dow Jones News Service"
"Copyright ( c ) 1997, Dow Jones & Company, Inc."

(Tue Jul 22 1997 17:30)
NJ: If I am reading this right Jerry Favors is still in the game and on the mark. Instead of July 11, his prediction happened on the 16th and the 16th is still the intraday high as it was not exceeded today.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 17:31)
DONALD: From the comments I saw, AG expressed concern about being alert for possible inflation; but I have not seen any commentary over a similar concern for deflation. Have you seen any of his comments where this was discussed.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 17:31)
Today's chart looks a little like a silouette of Batman, or is it a false start at a track meet.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 17:41)
SKYLARK: No I have not, but I was out for several hours today and in this area they only broadcast portions. Like Sherlock Holmes and the Hound of Baskerville. The main clue was the "dog that did not bark"

(Tue Jul 22 1997 18:04)
Your mission:
It is Jan 1995. Your name is Dieter and you are a Swiss national. You have been chosen to head the d project of the o initiative. The o initiative is the councils project to pressure the price of gold to enable the mass acquisition of the various forms of the worlds gold by the right people. The o initiative has these parameters.

o The price of gold is to be forced lower until its acquisition is complete. This may take from two to four years. However all acquistion must be complete by the collapse of the financial bubble ( no later than 1998 ) .

o The principal theme is "Gold is becoming worthless, sell now."

o Budget is 2.5 Billion us dollars.

o It is anticipated the price of Gold can be forced to around 300 and held there for at least six months.

o Four projects comprise the working apparatus, General Political, General Propaganda, Central Banks, and Nazi/Swiss.

As head of the Nazi/Swiss project your mission is to tar Gold and Switzerland ( a Gold surrogate ) with negative associations from the Nazi era. Your budget is 200 million dollars. You are authorized to lie/bribe/pander/and commit minor crimes. Major crimes must be approved by and conducted with the council. The council discourages murder and it may be used only if there is no other way to accomplish a major goal.

At first you were not convinced that the initative could succeed, after all the demand for gold was rising and the methods used to hold down its price seemed to be getting fairly obvious. At the same time the financial bubble was getting ready to burst. But the people, brain power, political connections, money and ruthless power controlled by the council soon convinced you that this audacious plan could not only succeed but was inevitable.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 18:06)
Trade Deficit
DONALD: Thanks for the reply. Interestingly, I also have not seen any commentary on the trade defict, which should expand with the strengthening dollar, by AG or other major economists. The BIS and IMF seem to have more of a concern. How do see the impact on the dollar.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 18:07)
all swell
So much for irrational exuberance and over optimism. If you can't beat 'em join 'em, I suppose. Maybe its still the time to blow out the maple leafs and buy Microsoft.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 18:12)
I predicted two days ago when Greenspan speaks everything will be great. The fact they ( Wall St ) have to put on this type of dog and pony act testifies to the lengths of manipulation they must undertake to maintain the necessary capital flows into the mutual ponzi GreensPan speaking is the time to create mkt action to suck more money into the bubble! Notice no mention in the controlled press re currency problems overseas as reason for Fri down move/ Gosh darnit it was really because Americans are too optimistic re this unbelievable great economy craeting all those part-time no benefit jobs and record bankruptcies!! HAHA The more they push the agenda the closer the truth reveals itself. Amazing gold was only down .20 today/ IMHO the early rally was created to allow for a late day failure ie the mkt is too oversold to decline without an initial rally. They have no stops to hit ( in fact just the opposite ) so they had to allow gold to rise inintially to create the downside reversal. I think they wanted more than .20 down given the finincial mkt imbalances ( which can not withstand dissappointment ) so gold is looking strong given the fed symbolism of this week. They will no doubt attempt to drive gold down tomorrow. Watching the tape, gold up moves slow the S&P rise. We are on the right side they are throwing everything at it to keep ponzi USA alive.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 18:17)
Donald: Russia/China share a common interest - discomfort with post cold-war US hegemony. NATO is now virtually on Russia's Western border, and the US is very much in evidence in Japan, S Korea, Taiwan, etc. And regardless of Russia going to last "G-7+" meeting, I doubt Yeltsin or his sucesssors are fond of cowboy boots.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 18:25)
Really, when you come down to it, Alan Greenspan's commission is to do something if inflation or unemployment or a crash gets out of line. Otherwise, as a free marketeer, it's best to stay out of the way. And that's what he's done. And Sec'y Rubin had the brains to pick a "boy" he could control, and he knew what exactly what needed to be done. And HE's done just that. They may be the two best public servants this country has had since WWII.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 18:40)
to the militaristic emperor
move out of my GOLDen sunshine

(Tue Jul 22 1997 18:42)
when the rains stop the sun shines

(Tue Jul 22 1997 18:49)
AUROPHILE: W/O Rubin this thing would have been over with long ago. However, its prolongation will make it more devastating when it happens. If prolongation of the bubble is the goal Rubin and Greenspan and Wall St CNBC spin doctors they are to be congratulated. They know news follows price and given the precarious debt and currency problems world wide they can not allow price to make news bad and thus adversely effect the much needed continued capital flow to keep ponzi going. Also after a stk mkt crash how popular will be the phrases "downsizing" "efficiency" "profit" "reduction in entitlements" and "personal responsibility". ANS NOT. This is why the financial debacle has so much downside potential as the possibility of how the news will properly get worse is obvious. This is why they are frantic to keep everyone's money flowing in one direction.
Enuf Said NYC was great as was NYMEX!!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 18:51)
gold should benefit some more from the headlong rush out of the dmark. the sfr/dm cross continues to gain despite the fact that the swiss is also falling AND that the DAX is still rising. except for yen and $US, gold has been rising in nearly every world currency. unless there is some concerted currency intervention ( always a danger at such high levels of the $US ) gold should benefit. it should do even better if the dollar turns WITHOUT intervention. this is not to say that bonds and stocks may not continue to do better.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 18:59)
WSF: Ignore IT....

(Tue Jul 22 1997 19:00)
WW: I certainly agree with you that this will all come to and end and a bear market will occur in stocks, bonds, and the dollar with a bull market in gold. I have not bought the parabola to the stars scenario, but neither do I buy the prechterian/internet crash scenario. Inflation creeps back, a bear market of 15-20% happens, and on we go. It will be a rockier road, but more like Boston than Bosnia. All IMHO, naturally.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 19:06)
There is monting evidence that the low has been made in Gold and that we should have a rally from here. It may not be a big rally but I think we could see $350 in the fall. I bought a couple Dec335 Calls today. The other traders were more than happy to sell them to me. No-one else on the floor thinks were going to rally and I will admit I wasn't expecting the sell-off on the close and we are now down on access. I do think that we could get down to 319/320 ( basis Aug ) but I really think that would be it.

bb fisher
(Tue Jul 22 1997 19:07)
much talk has been made on the forum about BIS ( bank for int. settlements ) as part of the darker forces of the new world order. did any of you know you can become shareholders in said bank? yes perhpas imf and world bank have more sinister motives as transnational corporate front men but the BIS is no enemy to gold or sound finance and until a few years ago few ever even new of their exiistence. become a sahreholder and then get the info from them directly.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 19:13)
BB Fisher: Besides all that cash and gold, the BIS has some lovely real estate in the form of a golden office bulding just a pleasant stroll from the grand Hotel Euler in Basle, where you must stay on your next visit to that charming city.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 19:13)
Jack: If I was them would be pissed off too!! :- )

KGB: Vee half Karburators for lend lease trucks! Only 5 ( large ) bars of platinum! Cheap!! Ve are patriotic!! Vill fedex for extra 2 bars... Of course Karburators that work vill require R&D - 10 bars - maybe more....

(Tue Jul 22 1997 19:19)
bb fisher (
bb fisher at 15:06: be careful when you make judgment about how you
computer will handle Y2K compliance. These test programs will usually
test PC-BIOS behavior which is just one small component of the problem
( more like inconvenience ) . The real problem is in all your software
packages ( or custom developed software ) and these test programs will not
detect such problems.

You may reset the date in your computer ( which comes from BIOS ) after
you restart your computer ( or you may apply software patch to correct
BIOS at start up time, but.. your spreadsheet, database, accounting
software, etc.. may still suffer from Y2K "bug", perform incorrect
calculation using dates ( e.g. cash flow, or interest calculation ) ,
put data in incorrect order ( e.g. checks in your ledger ) , and return
incorrect results in many different flavors.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 19:21)
Block Thoughts
Donald: I doubt that we are going to see a gold ruble block any time soon but there do seem to be a lot of people who look like they are keeping a foot in the door of a gold block. Maybe as insurance - a back door out of the now dominant US dollar block.

ron jett
(Tue Jul 22 1997 19:24)
Greetings folks,

I'd like to offer up a simple chart that might be of interest to some out there that are watching London P.M. Gold. My work suggest that we are about to make a run up. I'm sure that there are many more in the know on this subject - but I've learned much here and so would like to offer this chart. Thanks

(Tue Jul 22 1997 19:29)
Martian Thoughts
DA: Your 16:29 summs it all up. Face it! All these years of studying markets, economics, world politics and have we got it yet!! Geeze. OF COURSE the Bunds will rally in the face of inflation, even rumoured hyper inflation! Just like the Italian bonds did earlier!! Who ever thought otherwise! What kind of disinformation have we been getting into...

It has been obvious that the proper contrarian position is to be anti contrarian and accept the fact that there is nothing the politicians and the CB's cannot do - including making bunds rise with inflation! :D

Honestly, and I thought that the LBMA was weird..... Well as they say: "fact is stranger than fiction".

(Tue Jul 22 1997 19:32)
NJ (Greenman) - they won't succeed!
NJ at 17:03: The game plan, "to postpone the day of reckoning until
after the next elections and let the new administration take the blame."
have no chance to succeed. You can not drag this thing through the year
I believe that they can manage the first correction later this year,
have OK year in 98, but I believe that Y2K bug will bring them down
in 1999. Folks, the US government will not be ready and Y2K compliant
on time and it will impact how they can continue to keep "business as

Will they

(Tue Jul 22 1997 19:39)
SKYLARK: I think the dollar is strong for the wrong reason. Because it has become, since 1931, the international trade currency. It is used out of habit and because there is no other country or currency willing to take the role. Its strength now seems to be due to the fact that so many debts have been incurred using dollar denominated accounts. In other words, I need dollars so I can pay my bills, not because I think they are good as gold. The demand for dollars is for the wrong reason and that shows me there is trouble ahead. If a viable Yen or Emu block develops the dollar will weaken.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 19:39)
R. Jett: An explanation of the chart would be appreciated.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 19:53)
to Aurophile
Your Post @ 19:00. You are certainly viewing the Stock Market not from a goldbug perspective. I agree with you about future corrections, but I don't expect them to go much beyond the usual 10%. As I said before there is still too much pessimism around. Money managers are having convulsions about the state of the market and many of them are openly bearish. This fact alone indicates that higher prices will be seen before the next correction. After today some of this bearishness could dissipate and it will be worth monitoring the situation.

George Cole
(Tue Jul 22 1997 19:54)
GLENN: Your take on things is highly appreciated. I always feel more confident when we are on the same or similar wavelengths.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 19:54)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Read in todays LA times about a sale of a penny for
$50,000. Sounds like a fair exchage rate of the
good stuff for the funny stuff.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 20:04)
@barbadoe ranch

A.M. said to A.G.: "If you can get it up some more ( stocks of course ) , I'll buy some SPX puts, tee-hee."

(Tue Jul 22 1997 20:11)
Robert Pringle, Head of World Gold Council strongly criticizes Aussie Central Bank ( RBA ) FOLLY in sale of 2/3s of its gold. Following RBA sale, Under-ground reserves lose $3 billion!!!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 20:12)

Tuesday July 22 1997

Biggest navy exercises
in 30 years staged

The East China Sea Naval Fleet has held its biggest
military drills in more than 30 years north of

(Tue Jul 22 1997 20:13)
Deflation grips Korea. Workers accept pay cuts.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 20:14)
lobsters and beer
Ted......a belated good morning to you! I've been to NS a few times. Gander and Goose, mostly. Landed there in the worst weather, but always had the best food!! Lobsters and beer!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 20:14)
Hepcat is starting to waffle
John-hepcat.......here's what you wrote this morning:

[[Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:01
john ( ) :

Scotty - I said that gold would close at $325 +/- $5.
That bet still stands. Don't misrepresent what I said.
Don't insult me. I am not your mark.]]

But, here's what you wrote yesterday:

[[Scotty - This sounds like a great bet, only I would change two things:
1. It's not enough that I get the dollar figure correct. I must be correct
out to two decimal places, and predict where it will be at 20, 10, and
5 minutes before the close.]]

Which is it? An exact decimal place prediction bracketed against a time constraint; or a range of $10 ( $5 on either side of $325 ) ??

How do you propose we take the USD10,000 down?

(Tue Jul 22 1997 20:20)
China economy blasting
..their needs ( oil ) will grow in the second half of this year and first part of '98. Inflation is around the corner.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 20:26)
Australian Tech industries call for corporate welfare.

the wizard
(Tue Jul 22 1997 20:27)
@ oz
the U.S. dollar is topping out

(Tue Jul 22 1997 20:30)
what will stop the bull
Asia predicting bigger share of software, hardware computer market
"It predicted the US markets would experience
saturation in the next millennium."

(Tue Jul 22 1997 20:33)
Yikes! It looks like someone was listening to me last night. Comex eligible gold stocks jumped 70,000 oz today. Of course, that is only one ounce for each contract traded today. Do you realize that is the equivalent of the annual gold froduction of Nevada in one day! As a friend of mine said, it looks like there is one big pssn contest going on!

I am reposting this from last night by request.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 22:07
arden ( ) :

DJ - yes there are other sources of deliverable gold. In fact there are 541,663 oz deposited in Comex warehouses right now. BUT, they do not have a contract written against them! It is very much like the Aussie CB selling its gold and then saying, well we can replendish it from the ground because we have all of these reserves. One little minor point THE AUSSIE CB DOESN'T OWN THE GOLD IN THE GROUND!!!!!! Just like the people who have shorted gold on comex do not have any gold on deposit to back them up ( at least 98.5 % of them don't! )

My source for the numbers is the daily news release from the Comex. It comes out about an hour or so after the gold market closes.

My whole point is that the people who have sold gold short have only paper to back them up. With the huge physical demand for the metal and the shortfall with mine production, gold prices have only one direction long term.

You may look at it in the long term. Governments have forced people to give up their gold in exchange for paper. Now the people are giving back the paper for the gold. Yes gold supply is relatively stable, but there is a whole hell of a lot more people now than the 1930's and they all have more paper.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 20:41)
South Africa spin
Gold and the
amnesia problem

No sooner has a thrusting new
generation of bankers declared gold
obsolete than some panic will blow the
world markets apart ... and send the
same bankers scuttling back to their

(Tue Jul 22 1997 20:52)
Spin Doctoring
Bridge news reports rally in gold prices petered out on Greenspan's testimony of low inflation. The facts are that selling pressure began 11am and Greenspan's testimony started after 2pm.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 20:53)
All: A number of posts mentioned that a rise in gold in a foreign currency is a positive for gold. I do not understand this. Seemingly, since gold is priced in dollars, a rise in the price of gold in a foreign currency can take place merely because of a change in the relative value of the currency to the dollar. I can understand that a foreign investor may wish to buy gold to take advantage of a drop in domestic currency; but if the rise in gold due to currency change does not cause such foreign investment, how does it help the gold in US dollars since supply has not been affected. The rise in the price of gold in a foreign currency would also seemingly make it more expensive in that country which should reduce demand. Therefore, how does this positively affect gold fundamentals. What am I missing?

(Tue Jul 22 1997 20:54)
Russia- New gold rules
``Those who are really rich will diversify their savings into gold,'' Khoroshev said. ``But it's too
early to say gold will edge out the dollar as Russians' preferred savings instrument.''

(Tue Jul 22 1997 20:55)
EBN Gold down 1.40 and Silver down 3 cents....Looks like Greasepans little talk is having an influence on Asia tonight...Scotty: You've been to Nova Scotia but have you been to Cape Breton as Cape Bretoners don't consider themselves to be part of NS...Lobster catch was down 50% this year in our area but the beer is still goooooood....

(Tue Jul 22 1997 20:56)
NJ: They usually hand out the prepared speech text to the press ahead of time with an "embargo". That may account for the difference.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 20:59)
@ Jumping Jacks:
The gold price on the afterhours quotes on DBC.Com is jumping all over the place. Not quite sure where the afterhours activity ( buying and selling ) is taking place. Glenn: is there trading going on in NY on COMEX at night????

(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:00)
70,000 = Average Day
Aren - The shorts indeed have only paper to back up their position. It appears as if you assume that the longs desire anything else. The vast majority of all commodity transactions are made by traders with no intention of ever delivering, or taking delivery of, the commodity. Its a grand game of trading paper and counting up the winnings and losses every day. The same startling trade/production ratios would apply to any commodity.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:10)
Donald : Perhaps, but CNBC reported embargo lifted just minutes before the speech .

(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:11)

Common now, how much more you been sellin? Buy any Pa? I've got a theory on this one that the Russians promised delivery at $200 / oz. When the price dropped below the last few weeks they have been buying. Did you notice on the day that 'agreement' was reached with the Japanese the London P.M. fix was exactly 200.00? Don't think that was a coincidence. In addition, did you see the big deal that Almaz made about how they had a maximum of metal to sell BUT were not required to sell it all? Sounds like the bottom of the barrel to me. If we get much above $200 ( 215? ) here its off to the races big time. Since the Japanese 'dissed' Tiger last time I'll bet Julian waits until they beg.

Did you buy any more silver? If I wasn't married I'd bet the whole gd ranch on this one. This gold-bug stuff is fun, you should try it some day.

ron jett
(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:12)
skylark The chart is a simple daily recording of the London P.M. Close of Gold as recorded here at Kitco.

The moving averages are different from the standard ones used by many traders. I've found them to be very accurate andmuch better than the standard ma's. If you need more please let me know.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:15)
Byron : How about a set of instructions for the great chart you posted yesterday.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:19)
To TED @ CAPE BRETON: It isnt what Greeenspan says it is how Wall St. utilizes its assets to create a positive spin by mkt price action. The key to them is to continue to draw more and more money into the game. W/o the money the prices will fall if this happens the amt of money coming will fall and prices will fall and prices will decline creating bad headlines thus creating less inflow thereby creating lower prices and worse headlines..and so it will go!! Greenspan and Rubin are thanking their lucky stars for stk index futures which make all miraculous stk mkt turnarounds possible and have allowed the current bubble to grow. USE STREN GTH TO SELL. God Bless Indexes for giving us the opportunity to sell at such high prices!!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:24)

A rise in the price of gold in foreign currencies does not help the fundamentals of gold in the physical supply / demand sense but does increase its value relative to the basket of world paper. Since many investors are price followers, the rising price of gold in G7 countries can have a major change on investment demand. This can be ( as has been seen over the past 18 months ) a far stronger force than the physical production / consumption force.

Since moves in an individual currency are often fleeting the price of gold denominated in that currency can also change quickly. Were the dollar to reverse half of its gains in the DM over the past year and gold remain at the same value in DM terms gold would go up some 40$ in US terms.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:25)
@Greenspan's comments
Greenspan's discussion involving productivity reminds me of the Luddites
in English history during the Industrial Revolution...Will we someday see
people smashing computers because they're taking jobs away from real
people? Just a thought.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:25)
Ron Jett: Thanks, I will do a retake on the charts.
DONALD: I concur with your comments. Although AG appeared to be setting the stage for another rate increase, it is hard to see this taking place without aggrevating the dollar's strength, cause more discomfort to multi-nationals, and distress Japan and Germany who have voiced concern over the current strength.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:28)
Somebody is buying back the stuff they sold.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:28)
Hi WW! You gotta admit Wall Street's P.R. machine is doin a damn good job and even though I've taken advantage of it for the past 10+ years I'm beginning to get a little nervous at these lofty levels....Is all the "good news" NOW in???

(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:31)
D.A. Thanks for the explanation. Your comment on the currencies being a 2-way street is well-taken. I can see foreign investors dumping gold if the dollar fell faster than gold was appreciating relative to their currency.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:31)
@ the golden moment
To all .... We still are buying real gold , while others buy fools gold.
Only a short time left?

(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:33)
@...Russian CB Chairman and mafia ?
I read a news digest from a Russian news list that the chairman of the Russian CB had his apartment in Moscow straifed with bullets recently. The Moscow police haven't a clue about the perpetrators.


(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:34)
Gold? No thanks, just sold some,
D.A. - I put on more gold shorts Friday, and today at the high. Bought all the silver I intend to buy at these levels. My clients are holding long PL primarily from 360 - 400, with a bit as high as 440. I am trading no PA, it could still go anywhere, the risk is too great. I agree that Tiger will wait, just like it waited at 250 PA. I have not been alone here in saying that the PGM ride is not over. Round 2 should be fun. You might find it interesting to know, that the Russians bought PA from my company in May and June. The gold shorts have been the saving grace. I will sell all rallies but will buy no dips. Ill make the long $ in silver and platinum. I probably wont do a lot more this week, came down with a cold. Maybe its some sort of damnable Russian swine flu. I knew I shoulda held my breath when I bashed that KGB guy, his OOOOOFFF was full of spittle. Russians, cant trust em, cant bash em. Ive got to go, getting kind of stoned on these antihistamines.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:35)
@WW18:49, bw and all
WW your post and many others reflecting on the obvious conspiracy against gold/for equities here has caused me to wonder about the ultimate objectives of such a plan. While various scenarios have been touched on it would seem profitable if further theory would be developed as to the actual target these conspirators have in mind. Besides their chance pleasure in squashing goldbugs, as I feel we are only collateral damage in their view.
As some here would say, looking to the past to see the future, please allow me to use Genesis 41 as a figure. Perhaps you remember the passage as the story of how Joseph interpreted Pharoahs dream of seven fat cows/lean cows signified seven years of plenty and seven years of drought and Joseph urged Pharoah to save up 20% of the surplus each year. This allowed Pharoah to save his people when the famine came. But of course Pharoah did not give the stored food away, he sold it! Not mentioned explicitly is the effect that by the time the seven "lean" years were over Pharoah owned virtually everyone and everything and his power was greatly increased. Whether this is fable or faith to anyone matters not at all, it is the principle that I am alluding to. Those that hint at conspiracy here should be bold enough to look at the consequent end of the equation they are beginning to cypher. Thanks for your time. Hopefully my poor two cents invested at kitco will be turned into silver dollars by the many fertile minds here. Or perhaps I was just overcome by chocolate fumes again. TTFN

(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:40)
you can't kid a kidder, RJ)
RJ I don't think 70,000 contracts is a normal day. Last month we has a week that averaged less than 10,000 contracts per day. No normal is about 20,000. Granted that some of the excess was due to rollover from August to December, etc., but it was still an extreme day. My point is that even with 73,000 contracts, we could only drop 20 cents ( of course you would point out that we didn't go up with all of that buying! ) .

I think if you check the historical records that you will find the amount of physical gold pledged for delivery per outstanding contract is the lowest in Comex history! Your thinking is way too complacent in my opinion, you could just get yours fingers burned by being short too long. Have you ever been caught in a short squeeze?

(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:50)
Credit Deflation @ World-Wide
( Clarence W. Barron,*They Told Barron*,Harpers,New York, 1930, p 353 )

"The agreement between the Bank of England and the Washington Federal
Reserve authorities many months ago was that we would force the export
of 725 million of gold by reducing the bank rates here, thus helping
the stabilization of France and Europe and putting France on a gold
basis ( April 20, 1928 )

In his annual report to the stockholders of his International Acceptance
Bank, in March, 1929, Mr. Warburg ( Federal Reserve ) said:

" If the orgies of unrestrained speculation are permitted to spread, the
ultimate collapse is certain not only to affect the speculators themselve
but to bring about a general depression involving the entire country"

February 06 1929 Wall Street Bankers were running the show.
Gold movements were completely unreliable.
The Quarterly Journal of Economics noted that:
"The question has been raised, not only in this country, but in several
European countries, as to whether customs statistics record with accuracy
the movements of the precious metals, and, when investigations has been
made, confidence in such figures has been weakened rather than strength-
ened. Any movement between France and England, for instance, should be
recorded in each country, but such comparison shows an average yearly
discrepancy of fifty million francs for France and eighty-five million
francs for England. These enormous discrepancies are not accounted for "

Review of Reviews September issue 1929
"The Federal Reserve statement for August 07 1929, shows that signs of
inadequacy for autumn requirements do not exist. Gold resources are
considerably more than the previous year, and gold continues to move in,
to the financial embarrassment of Germany and England. The reasons for
the Board's action must be sought elsewhere. The public has been given
only the hint that *This problem has presented difficulties because of
certain peculiar conditions*. Every reason which Governor Young advanced
for lowering the bank rate last year exists now. Increasing the rate
means that not only is there danger of drawing gold from abroad, but
imports of the yellow metal have been in progress for the last four
months. To do anything to accentuate this is to take the responsibility
for bringing on a world-wide credit deflation"

Governor Adolph C. Miller stated at the Senate Investigation of the
Federal Reserve Board in 1931 that:
"If we had had no Federal Reserve System, I do not think we would have had as bad a speculative situation as we had, to begin with."

The London Statist on May 25 1929 said:
"The banking authorities in the United States apparently want a business
panic to curb speculation"

The London Economist on May 11 1929 said:
"The events of the past year have seen the beginnings of a new technique,
which, if maintained and developed, may succeed in *rationing the
speculator without injuring the trader* "

Governor Charles S. Hamlin quoted this statement at the Senate hearings
in 1931 and said, in corroboration of it:
"That was the feeling of certain members of the Board, to remove Federal
Reserve credit from the speculator without injuring the trader"

Emmanuel Goldenweiser, director of research for the Federal Reserve
System, said, in 1947:
"It is clear in retrospect that the Board should have ignored the
speculative expansion and allowed it to collapse of its own weight."

(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:51)
Gold rapidly dropping...EBN Gold down 2.0 and Silver down 3 cents...

(Tue Jul 22 1997 21:52)
Nomercy: Your article on Chinese Navy exercises should make those who posted here recently that Taiwan was no problem think again. If they strike Taiwan it will be over before our CIC could make up his mind on what we should do. The only thing that might stop them from acting soon is the favorable trade balance they have with us which is lining their coffers, with a lot of the precious yellow I suspect.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 22:00)
70K, is busy, but hardly extraordinary. A short squeeze happens when there are not enough sellers or enough physical supplies to cover deliveries. I dont think a credible case can be made for either scenario in gold. If the last few years have demonstrated anything,, there is no paucity of sellers. ( my thanks to Subjective Observer for the use of "paucity" ) As for physical supplies; yes, COMEX stocks are somewhat low, but there are enormous stockpiles of gold everywhere. Stand up, OK, now close your eyes.Good.Now, spin around real fast.Raise your arm to a horizontal position and extend index finger..OK, you are now pointing at a plethora of gold. Go ahead, try it, its fun. If you get a bit dizzy, thats just about how I feel with all these antihistamines coursing through my vessels.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 22:02)
@ a story to lighten the evening
RJ's comment on getting stoned on antihistamines reminds me of a story.

There was this African prince from a poor third world country whose tiny
principality went from rags to riches because oil was discovered in his kingdom. Suddenly, almost overnight, the country was transformed from one of shacks and grass huts to beautiful homes, offices and highways.
Even the old Executive Mansion was torn down to make way for a new
and splendid Executive "Glass House" ( a symbol of his majesty's honesty
and straightforwardness with his people ) .

The only remnants of the old days would be a few artificats like old scepters and a couple of swords along with the prince's grandfather's
mahagony throne ( a symbol of the old regime ) . The throne and other
ancient artificats were stored in a back room in the new Glass Palace.

Well, as fate would have it..a structural defect caused the heavy
mahogony throne to come cascading down through the several glass
floors causing extensive damage to the new Glass Palace.


(Tue Jul 22 1997 22:05)
East LA

Bob: ( 21:33 ) Sheez, that happens alla time round here.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 22:08)
Skylark: Gold IS another currency. Ask any cenral bank. Just as crude oil and many useful items are generally quoted in $US for convenience, so too is gold. But anywhere it is legal to buy and sell it, it is quoted in local legal tender terms. The significant event is when gold is going up ( or down ) versus many or all OTHER currencies. Lately it has been going up against them all, even the mighty $US. In the 1970's the concept of a gold "advance/decline" line was popular. This was a cumulative daily tally of gold's currency action against all other currencies.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 22:08)
Gold shorts.
My gold shorts placed at 10 am today, are in profits now. Can we coin a new term for some who is not a goldbug, but is not the antitheses of goldbug? Its not that I dont like gold, I own gold and I am happy to have it. We need a term for those of us who do not hate gold, but view it as a trading vehicle. I know, I am opening myself wide for all sorts of derisive names..Go ahead, this will not be there first time I have been the brunt of Kitco jokes. These antihistamines are making me paranoid

(Tue Jul 22 1997 22:10)
Let he who is without tin, cast the first throne.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 22:10)
Evening Japan....Go Rangers!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 22:15)
Go to library and see if you can get access to any of Harry Browne's
books. The reason is for its excellent perceptions of the coming turbulent times in the financial world and what we could be looking forward too in the not to distant future.








It kind of sounds like what we've talking about recently, what do think??? MEGA GURU GOES TO WASHINGTON!! NOPE THE ESTABLISHMENT HATES

(Tue Jul 22 1997 22:16)
Aurophile: Thank you very much. I over-looked that. But continuing on the same line of thinking. If gold is improving re: other currencies, which it is, why then are not the RSA and Australian gold equities responding better than they are. I am mentioning this not to be argumentative but because it simply occurred to me while reading your post and it appears to be a good question.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 22:17)

COMEX gold and silver inventories have been drawing down for years now, the prices seem to be following. It used to be that COMEX stocks were viewed with a reverent eye. Now it seems to be nothing more than proof that London is where the action is moving.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 22:18)
NJ ( 21:15 ) : What great chart???

(Tue Jul 22 1997 22:34)
@Garzarelli II
Hi Ted: Forget gold. Check the PGMs. Bonsoir, mon ami.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 22:38)
Skylark: Thanks. I am not an expert on the Australian and So. African mining industries, but I suspect their hard times have more to do with local politics. Nor did I mean to imply that gold is THE currency. Clearly it is in a long bear market, as is the dollar, peso, franc, myanmar whatever, and so forth. It is having an uptick which may or may not turn out to be meaningful going forward. Currencies are just not what they used to be. Now one wants physical assets or paper assets depending upon circumstances. Currencies, including gold, appear to be wasting assets except for the closing of deals on a daily basis. ( All this in my humble opinion, and I reserve the right to be wrong..:- )

(Tue Jul 22 1997 22:43)
Gold up or down ?
DBC has gold up 0.40 and EBN has Gold Down $2.15. Does anyone know which one is correct or an alternative site.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 22:52)
Unfortunately it's down 2.15 on ABN. It will be interesting to see how it opens on Comex tomorrow. Can Greenie have that much of an effect on AU....

(Tue Jul 22 1997 22:52)
Play The Spread
Hmmm. I wonder if a can play the spread ( arbritrage ) between the DBC quote on gold and the EBN quote.??? : )

(Tue Jul 22 1997 22:55)
Another view

Financial Times report seems to interpret A.G's comments differently? also other good reads.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 22:59)
nynex access has august gold down $2 at $324.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 23:02)
@ Found Chart
NJ: Found the chart you refered to: Newmont Chart going back to 1970's. Had suggested that one place a flexible ruler on the computer screen along the support line. Would tend to think that support line will hold. The URL is,12

(Tue Jul 22 1997 23:04)
Do you have the site address for nynex.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 23:04)
Novice:Why forget's gettin cheaper by the month and I'm on the prowl for bargains....Goodnight ALL!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 23:06)
RJ: ...but who trade it: "auronostic"

(Tue Jul 22 1997 23:07)
In todays F.T 7/22/97 an artical by Kenneth Gooding

Could not find it after searching in the F.T. 7/23/97 tid-bit, just posted. It seems that the usual suspects were being quoted and something about $260 gold, before mines cut production. Merill and T.A. must be sweating.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 23:10)
Steve - Try:

(Tue Jul 22 1997 23:12)
RJ & RT: Did you say paranoid? Would you like to join my support group? Admission requires a brokers letter of terminal prognosis.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 23:13)
Byron : Yes, that's the one. Thanks. Is there any way to get the charts without signing up etc.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 23:26)
@ The Public Library
NJ: No registration is required at that site.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 23:27)
@ A Hope and A Pray
Vronsky: E-mail sent. Hope you received same.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 23:29)

KGB Zupercell
(Tue Jul 22 1997 23:33)
Ve luk for Offzitz zSpace

KGB Zupercell luk for offvitz in Newport Beach Area, shud be klose to broker offvitz who zell invizable platinum.
RJ post uf dizsy spin vit gold, sound like story of KGB Agent, who luk up skirt an zee karburator.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 23:33)
@ Supplemental Info:
NJ: Might want to start at the home page of site and work you way from there.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 23:36)
Dose who trade de yellow
STUDENT: I prefer a u d a c i o u s

(Tue Jul 22 1997 23:38)
@ A Peek At Kitco:
Kitco 24 hr gold chart shows that the boys are having a little fun in Sydney and Hong Kong. So far during the last 24 hrs we have had a $6.00 spread between the high and low quotes for gold.

(Tue Jul 22 1997 23:39)
Yes, gold has been going down as have gold inventories. I have a chart of the montly DJIA on my wall. It sure looks like a parabola to me. So if London is where the action is, why is the price set in New York?

By the way, if antihistimines can induce you to short gold, what on earth could make you write so eloquently in the wee hours of the morn?

(Tue Jul 22 1997 23:40)

Scotty - Please go back to the original proposal, the one that prompted
your ludicrous counteroffer. In that original proposal, I said gold was going
to be at $325 on Tuesday, July 29. I encouraged all comers to take a
stab at where they thought gold was going to be on Tuesday, July 29,
with the stipulation that all prediction had to be in before that midnight.
The condition of the bet was this: If you were off by $5, no posting for a month.
This is what is known as a open-ended bet, Scotty. People could enter into
it as they wished, but the stipulation was that they had to make a prediction.
A total of two different people took me up on the offer, one of whom posted
the same prediction, one of whom posted after midnight ( but apparently
prior to midnight their time ) with a slightly higher prediction. Clearly you remember this, Scotty, or you wouldn't have posted your follow-up nonsensical challenge,
not only after the deadline, but also without any type of prediction ( except,
from what I can discern ) a type of null hypothesis or negation of my hypothesis,
that gold was not going to end up at $325. Scotty - What kind of person would
enter into an even money bet where they were given one possible outcome
and the other person the remaining ( infinite number of ) outcomes. What kind
of person would propose such a bet? What kind of person would not recognize
sarcasm in a follow-up post to an outlandish proposal such as this, or recognize
that to fold something up origami-like into the shape of an anus was a polite
way of saying take your proposed "bet" and place it deftly up near your
sigmoid colon? Scotty, the number of supporting posts you have
received since your posts ( none ) would indicate that your attempt to
win anyone over to your lost cause has failed miserably. For you not
to be able to get a rise out of the Kitco regulars who jump on any and
every anti-Hepcat bandwagon that rolls through indicates you have failed
even more miserably. Why don't you be a good boy and bracket my initial post that prompted you to come up with your derivative counter "proposal".
And why don't you use your limited intelligence to try and master a short-con you
may be more cut out for:
"Hey mister, I'll bet I can tell you where you got your shoes."

(Tue Jul 22 1997 23:51)
Speculation @ Freedom....(Is to blame?)
* Freedom of Speculation* *Free Trade* *poor get poorer* ???
July 22 1997
"George Soros, whose speculative moves in global currency markets are
well known"

"My Exploited Father-in-Law" F.D.R. Col. Curtis B. Dall, Liberty Lobby
Wash.,D.C. 1970.
Col. Curtis B. Dall, who was a broker on Wall Street at that time, ( 1929 )
writes of the Crash, " Actually it was the calculated *shearing* of the
public by the World Money-Powers, triggered by the planned sudden
shortage of the supply of call money in the New York money market."

Overnight, the Federal Reserve System had raised the call rate to twenty
percent. Unable to meet this rate, the *speculators'* only alternative
was to jump out of windows.

GEORGE SOROS stay away from windows, history is about to repeat, and
you, and your's are being blamed, as the *speculator* was blamed in the

These suits all attend the same institutions of higher learning, hell,
they read history, it worked before, do it again, the people are stupid.
The poor, are poor, because the poor want to be poor, everyone knows that
to be the truth, EH!

(Tue Jul 22 1997 23:52)
Byron : Many thanks. I was leaving out /home.asp. Impatient fat fingers take the blame.