Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 00:04)
I might like being gilded
Student - Auronostic from: aureate? Of a golden color; gilded. A second definition: Inflated and pompous in style. Hmmmmmm. That seems to fit sometimes.

Related: Aurelian
Emperor of Rome ( A.D. 270-275 ) who held the barbarians in check beyond the Rhine River and regained Britain, Gaul, Spain, Syria, and Egypt for the empire.

Oh, I dont know, lets ask Auric.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 00:06)
@working the mines
Comments for the day:

Rj is playin with matches.
Hepcat has no matches to play with.
Cherocreep ( spit! ) doesn't know what a match is. That was my point, moron. Get it? Duh!!!

Gold is ready to soar!!!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 00:06)
not taking this lying down
John-hepcat......this morning you wrote:

[[Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:02
john ( ) :

WSF - This is an investment site, not a amateur psychoanalysis site.
The bottom line is: Who came out ahead over the last year with regards
to money - People who listened to you, or people who listened to me?
Do you have any other excuses for why you didn't sell your gold stocks?
Maybe because it is a cleansing experience to be poor?]]

Agreed 100% that this is an investment site. And not a psychoanalysis site. I might add that it is not an insulting site; it is not a bravado site; and it is not an I-am-better-than-you site. Just thought you'd like to know.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 00:08)
paying attention
John-hepcat...........did you actually write the following?

[[Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 12:21
john ( ) :

WSF - Given that you've done so well, why the absence of magnanimity?]]

Magnanimous is defined as "Generous and noble, especially in forgiving." I just cannot believe you are asking such a silly question when your posts do not indicate similar behavior.

Just wanted everyone to know I am paying attention.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 00:11)
John @hep: If you can scrounge up a quarter, please run to the nearest phone and call someone who gives a damn. Your constant demands for respect grow more tedious by the minute. If it is respect you feel you deserve, consider showing it and it will come to you as a natural course.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 00:23)
Teacher: Whether intentional or not, you have provided us with another fine example of the modern curriculum for public education and the salutory effect it has on public manners.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 00:25)

bbfisher - Please recall my conversation with D.A. early in July
regarding my reluctance to posit a move for gold below $300 this year.
I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just saying we have to acclimate
at $325 for a while before I can give any kind of meaningful estimate
where to from here. One thing I notice is that as silver goes lower,
the bid on 40% bags approaches face value. I cannot imagine
a stronger resistance to further declines than telling people all the
'65-'69 Kennedy halves they stored away for years can now be spent,
( or a more fatal blow for any chance of recovery should this resistance
be pierced ) . Please also refer to my numerous posts where I specifically
avoid any exertion in the direction of elucidation, and my delight in
pointing this out. "I don't have to package this, it is packaging itself"
will probably be my fondest remembrance of Kitco once I am banished
( accent on the third syllable ) to the hinterlands, and the greatest truism
at this site probably for years to come.

D.A. - Thank you for your skepticism and your optimism.

All - You have to ask yourself, "After how many correct calls
by the 'Cat will I finally admit defeat?" If your answer is, "Hepcat
could make 70 x 7 calls and I would still never be convinced" then
I would issue the gentle remonstrance - Of what benefit are your
opinions here?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 00:33)

Scotty - To paraphrase what Pete Rozelle once stated ( or was it Al Davis? )
about bad press:

"I don't care what they say about me, just make sure they spell my name right"

Your reposting of my recent posts is wonderful publicity, and I can't be attacked
for self-aggrandizement since you are doing it for me. Please keep it up.


(Wed Jul 23 1997 00:34)
Well...where to start?...perhaps I'll wait...
It's still too early...



(Wed Jul 23 1997 00:35)
PGMs Again
From my post @ June 5,1997 00:26 : Look for the Russians to announce resumption of palladium shipments next week with barely enough to under satisfy current demand.

CNN Bridge News
New York--July 22--
Platinum's and palladiums rallies were a continued rebound from their lows on word Russian shipments of the metals had resumed on a limited basis. Russian shipments of palladium have been lower than expected and there have yet to be confirmed exports of platinum.

Russia, the world's largest exporter of palladium and second-largest platinum producer, had been unable to ship the metals since January and only resumed shipments in early July.

However, lower-than-expected export volumes have been in place since shipments resumed, in part due to continuing internal wrangling within the Russian government, traders said. Because of difficulties in shipping the metal by the Russian central bank, the exports haven't met expectations.

The difficulty appears to be in establishing the shipment protocols within the central bank, this trader said. Prior to a shake-up in the Russian government, the export agency Almaz was tasked with shipments; now the central bank is responsible for the exports has failed to ship as expected due to its suspected failure to develop the logistical support for the export shipments.


(Wed Jul 23 1997 00:40)
RJ: Is that another way of saying: They ain't got none?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 00:43)
It's quite simple. If the mining companies were able to
to issue "hedged" gold backed certificates or some similar "creative"
vehicle that allowed the public to profit ( via a dividend ) from
"owning" gold on paper, this would substantially propel the price.
Just as the hedge game has been played on the downside for so many
years, an equally impressive "paper" game could be played out
on the upside for gold. Getting the public heavily involved
in "paper" physical gold investing could possibly be the
wild card for turning the gold market around especially since
the public is more interested in paper anyway.

As for when gold will turn around, I believe that the catalyst
will be central bank realization that they are not all working
together. Visualizing that massive transfers of wealth are
occurring from one nation to another will tend to prevent subsequent
gold sales from the underdog central banks.
It would be interesting to see an analysis of what the past and
current distributions of wealth are world wide.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 00:46)
They got some, ain't got enough.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 00:46)
Thanks for the post.I really respcted and learn lots from you all,george cole,ted,glenn,arden,earl,...many many more!bravo!
To all the bears and bulls,BRAVO MUITO OBRIGADOO!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 00:52)

Earl - I promise to put you first on my squelch list, if
you promise to register under your real name.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 00:58)
JIN: voce fala o Portugues?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 01:15)
@piecing it all together
Some of the cat fights are certainly interesting.....Hepcat writes from a medical site....he obviously has a few inexplicable problems....he retired early ( we're not sure why, but we can guess ) ..Perhaps we should just be a little more tolerant and encourage him to keep taking his medication and attending therapy....Maybe one day they'll let him out.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 01:22)

RJ-May I suggest the term auronaut? BTW, if the J stands for Jason, you could be an argonaut!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 01:26)
6 Paks last post
In the post 6 pak briefly states the fact that the 29 crash was a major transfer of wealth if not the largest. If it happens or I should say when it does happen it will reach far outside our borders with the "one world economy."

Speaking of one world, how bout the WTO, a centralized ENITY that has, or will have power with in our borders

If seems odd to me that people make a living simply by selling paper right down the company lines. I know of people that do this; they receive the brokerage letter on which paper to push.

We have market charts that spike up in the same curves as the national debt. We are comming upon the point where the tax revenues alone will not service the debt. Wait till the interest rates climb and then watch debt spiral upward.

Consumer faith!? Is that the faith of the foreign money consuming our debt? It should be. When will that be lost?

I'm simply amazed all these guru's self appointed ( Which as of late there seems to be some here ) are not, don't see that things burn the brightest before they burn out.

The transfer of power ( wealth ) is coming. I would think this would be a good forum to prepare and share ideas not egos.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 01:35)
John @hep: As per usual, the name is real and so's the address. You know perfectly well that I have never assumed other handles. At the same time, I have never understood your fixation on the use of multiple handles by others. When, as I have said before, you display more handles than a fat man's coffin.

BTW, I found your comment regarding scrap silver coins interesting. From past comments, I gather that you follow the coin market. Consider leaving your ego on the dresser sometime and make a contribution in an area you follow. Hmmmm? ...... Failing that, squelch away.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 01:43)
Question:How can you tell when a politician is lying?
Answer:When you see their lips moving.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 01:47)

MaryJane - I am in fine physical and mental health. Thank you
and thank everyone for your continued concern. After about
the forty-seventh reference to my mental health does it start
to get funny? Does everyone who posts about me needing
a psychiatrist or "adjustment in my medications" think they
are posting some novel zinger?

MaryLou, one person I am somewhat concerned about is
Stephen Mooney. He hasn't posted here under that handle
for about two weeks. I know have devastating losing a
bet can be on someone ( well, I don't personally have any
experience with it, but I'm sure it could make someone who
had "lost face" want to hide behind multiple handles, KWIM? ) .
If you see him while you're gazing into a still pond or something,
could you ask him how he's doing?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 01:51)

Earl - Do you have any proof that over the past two months I have
posted under multiple handles? No. In fact, there is no proof, because
for the past two months I have posted under one handle. I guess the
final arbiter would be Bart Kitner, who would also be the final arbiter
for the veracity of your most recent statements as well. Care to approach
the bench?

John Disney
(Wed Jul 23 1997 01:55)
To all--
Gencor group quarterlies just out.
Evender eps at 6.6 cent per share versus 85 cents last
Beatrix at 46 cents versus 52 cents last quarter
St Helena at 1.56 rand versus 60 cents last quarter
St Helena and oryx look very interesting
For info the local high cost Northam PGM mine has
risen from 2.1 rands to 2.7 in space of a week.
Poor performance of RSA golds unrelated to "political
problems" mentioned on site - RSA industrial up about
13% so far this year in $ terms. Political problems
are not selective to the gold industry. Poor performance
RSA gold due low gold price and to local institutions
avoiding/selling this sector in favor of industrials and
local bonds which yield about 15%.
Dont get me wrong. RSA is indeed run by a corrupt
bunch of clowns. However, they have a bright guy at the
central bank. It's always been like this ( albeit with a
few color changes ) . It is much like the USA in that
It could be worse. Australia,for example, doesnt even
have a bright guy at the central bank.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 01:56)
Russia's gold output
11:51 a.m. Jul 15, 1997 Eastern

"Other officials see Russia's 1997 gold output in the range of 95-110 tonnes, down from approximately 124 tonnes in 1996.

Miners say output in Russia, the world's fifth largest gold producer with the world's third largest reserves in the ground, will fall if the state does not provide more funds."

--Julie Tolkacheva, Moscow Newsroom, +7095 941 8520 ^REUTER@

(Wed Jul 23 1997 01:57)

Earl - I follow a lot of things. Maybe you should listen instead of
always getting your undergarments in a wad when my name
is offering the advice.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 02:04)
John @hep: Stated categorically: nada, khong, zero, zip, none and never. Methinks, thou doth protest too much. Clean of assumed handles for two months. Wow! An amazing accomplishment. Zowie! ..... Didja find a quarter yet?

John Disney
(Wed Jul 23 1997 02:08)
For Scotty/Earl -
Please dont take John seriously. He IS sick - He just
doesn't realize it. He is delusional. He is paranoid.
Dont hurt him nor stir him up needlessly - please.
Read him whenever you get the chance and thank God that
on this earth there is AT LEAST ONE MAN that you are
much better than.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 02:22)
John Disney: Good to read your latest earnings report and sober advice. I do follow it. Mostly. But occasionally the hour is late, the flesh is weak and it serves to dissipate a little energy.

John Disney
(Wed Jul 23 1997 02:51)
To all - breaking news from RSA ____

I assume that you have all heard of the crime problem
in RSA - particularly in the Joberg area. This problem
is due partly to the unbelievable incompetance of our
police force but mainly to our judicial system. In the
unlikely event that a criminal is actually apprehended,
the judicial system ensures that he will be released
immediately and inconvenienced as little as possible.
The Minister of Justice is called DULLah Omar - alias
Omar the bent. He is anti american - anti western -
anti white - pro cuban - presumably pro Lybian- anti
capital punishment - pro human rights for criminals.
He is said to be a close friend of Mandela and did
apparently did his legal training at Robben Island
Despite the problem of no police force and no judicial
system, there is hope on the horizon.
The Animals are stepping into the void. A gorilla
named Max made a citizen's arrest of a burglar who
in running from the so-called police had cleverly
jumped into the gorilla enclosure at the Joberg zoo to
He was apprehended by Max - but he shot brave max
twice in the struggle - the police arrived on the scene
( probably by mistake ) and shot the burglar ( probably by
accident ) in a very delicate spot. Max is recovering
and will soon be made neighborhood watch team leader.
In the North, a large crocodile apprehended an
illegal immigrant swimming across the Limpopo river.
This croc is said to be called "Judge Dredd" by the
local tribesman. Anyway, the croc found the illegal
guilty as charged and ate him on the spot. He was reported
to be heard mumbling "Ayyamdulaw ayyamdulaw" as he swan
away - but I dont believe it.

Reader 2
(Wed Jul 23 1997 03:09)

Mr. Disney: Not Supposed To Laugh But Can't Stop!!!

Reader 2
(Wed Jul 23 1997 03:12)

Actually that guy the crocodile ate was EB. He was trying to say, "AWAY!!"

(Wed Jul 23 1997 04:22)
Please can somebody tell me how much a gold bar is worth in English pounds. This question came about last night whilst watching a film. Hope you can answer.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 04:31)
Whoops, sorry, wrong discussion group.

George Cole
(Wed Jul 23 1997 04:54)
August gold
Augyst gold now off a buck according to DBC..Still not bad considering yesterday's surge in U.S. stocks and bonds.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 05:00)
EBN Gold down 1.60 but as George S. Cole said not bad all things considered...Let's see if Greenspan tries to prick the balloon just a bit today after the surge in equities yesterday...

(Wed Jul 23 1997 05:01)
EBN Gold down 1.60 but as George S. Cole said not bad all things considered...Let's see if Greenspan tries to prick the balloon just a bit today after the surge in equities yesterday...

George Cole
(Wed Jul 23 1997 05:30)
Mine closing hedges

mine to buy gold at low price ( BD Pg.15 )

JCI-managed gold mine Western Areas will buy 1,6-million ounces of gold, taking advantage of a possible increase in bullions price, which plummeted
to a 12-year low earlier in the month, the company said yesterday.


(Wed Jul 23 1997 05:47)
Hello PeanutGallery,
A couple days ago PeanutGallery you asked an interesting question. I have been unsuccessful in finding the answer. Essentially you asked if US government debt was not simply an illusion - based on the idea that when we discuss debt we only consider liabilities but not the assets which your friend claimed are so large as to dwarf the debt ( $59 trillion dollars ) . Of course the US ( in a crunch and to avoid default ) could sell off assets. They would not sell off their military hardware, but there is a lot that could be sold off ( I suppose ) . Unfortunately, I have always been better at numbers than at painstaking library research; I checked all the normal places ( StatAbst, etc. ) and I can not find an estimate of total US gov't assets in current dollars. Still looking...if anyone knows where to find it let me know please.

Status update: Regarding gold...our position ( on the short side ) is tredding water and getting out of breath. Regarding SP ...position ( long ) was closed out due to the happy happenstance of reaching our target price - oh God I love this magnificent market rise. ( And please God, allow me the joy of being short when the time comes! )

Don't Worry, Be Happy

Jojo in Tokyo

(Wed Jul 23 1997 06:03)
@hot.air - not hepcat.
Good Mornin. EBN Gold 225-235 +/- 10. COMEX Gold variable. Beans: full of it today.
TED: I still love you. But EARL: what a stud, I love him even more than TED ( sorry TED ) . SCOTTY: great, I love you too. Cherokee: quiet.
You are a bunch of foxy, dashing, intelligent and astute republicans. Way to go!. I love you guys.... a bunch. Life on earth would be so much better with you guys guiding us though these so numerous philosophical problems we are facing. I L.O.V.E you all.
Sirocco ...
Time to go for a walk in Queens... a beautiful day... eveybody is smiling... Everything is cool.
Tommorrow, I will pay a visit to the miners of those S.A. that are closing. Sorry I won't be with you, my loves.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 06:05)
RJ: Your post to Arden a while back regarding putting on a blindfold and spinning around to point at gold anywhere stuck with me. As sometimes happens, one of those things to which I wake up in the middle of the night.

The condition you describe with your metaphor isn't new. It was thus last year, five years ago, 50 or 100 years ago. What is new today and behind the drop in gold is the level of trust placed in fixed dollar debt of the USA. I submit that the horde of gold in the world in relation to the level of other assets and the size of the world economy is actually less than it has been historically. I don't have numbers to back this up, except that we have seen numbers on this forum that show the absolute level of gold in CB hordes has dwindled over the last forty years or so.

There's another thing that's new in only the last 20 years or so: the magnitude of the US debt. The US government has passed out to its constituants $5.3 trillion in current consumable goods and services by issuing promises allow the holders of such debt the right to such consumption in the future. Can this future consumption ever actually occur? I believe the answer to this is clearly no. It can only be rolled forward. If the debt is ever called in mass, it can only be repaid by the fed creating dollars from thin air, and we know what that would mean. Now that a substantial part of this debt is held outside our boundaries by a block that is not in our military sphere of influence ( which at some point WILL include Japan imo ) , the issue of willingness to participate in this rolling forward game may become critical.

Will confidence in US paper and paper assets continue its recent path? We'll see. I side with Cherokee regarding pendulums. What I don't know is when.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 06:37)
Looks like over seas markets have gone ballistic. I wonder what the disapointment will be?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 06:51)
Mornin Panda! Europe is soarin...DAX up 164 ( almost 4% ) and the other markets are mostly up approx. 3%.....EBN Gold is now only down 1.05 which ain't bad...considering....Glad Iez in stox too!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 06:58)
George Cole -- Here's the story;

They're buying back 1.6 million ounces. I posted this last night, I guess no one saw it.

Good morning TED, been off-line during the day. I try to catch up at night....

(Wed Jul 23 1997 07:01)
JoJo: There is a book written by R. Earl Hadady called "How Sick is Uncle Sam". That helps to answer the kind of question you have. Assets for sal might be Amtrak, U.S. Postal Service, park lands etc. I doubt that even during the worst kind of depression we would sell the Statue of Liberty for scrap metal. Another consideration is that when and if a decision were made to sell the Post Office, for example, it would be at a bottom. We would be selling at the worst possible time and receive the lowest price. Japan sold its government owned telephone system at the market peak. If they had to sell it today, 7 years later, they would get much, much, less.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 07:05)
Palladium / Platinum story. Stuff? What stuff?

George Cole
(Wed Jul 23 1997 07:19)
Greenie as contrary indicator
Now that the market has risen a few thousand points since Greenie's irrational exuberance speech back in December, why should the market not drop a few thousand points now that he is talking rational exuberance. Let's face it, he has become a contrary indicator.

The closest thing to free money today is to buy international funds on days when the U.S. stock market surges towards the close. Most major overseas markets follow the next day like clockwork.

Gold's refusal to plunge after yesterday'smarket surge smacks of bottoming action to me. The base for a strong upmove still under construction. Should be finished before long.

George Cole
(Wed Jul 23 1997 07:19)
Greenie as contrary indicator
Now that the market has risen a few thousand points since Greenie's irrational exuberance speech back in December, why should the market not drop a few thousand points now that he is talking rational exuberance. Let's face it, he has become a contrary indicator.

The closest thing to free money today is to buy international funds on days when the U.S. stock market surges towards the close. Most major overseas markets follow the next day like clockwork.

Gold's refusal to plunge after yesterday'smarket surge smacks of bottoming action to me. The base for a strong upmove still under construction. Should be finished before long.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 07:28)
Germany DAX up 164 you say? I bet that Greenspan gets a personal call from Tietelmann at the Bundesbank before he testifies today.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 07:37)
GEORGE S. COLE: Not only did gold not plunge but the Dow/Gold ratio closed at 24.72. Safely below the high of 25.22 on the 16th, well, I hope the word "safely" is not irrationally exuberant on my part. There is actually a chance we have seen the turn. Today is a crucial day. Everyone who is long gold and short stocks knock on wood.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 07:51)
A whif of DEFLATION in Germany?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 07:52)
Re-hash of old platinum story.....

Brinksmanship? Or are they really out of the 'stuff'?
And what is this business trip?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 08:01)
OOPS: Post of 7:28 should have read "Tietmeyer"

(Wed Jul 23 1997 08:09)
Stock markets worldwide soar on Greenspan speech.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 08:13)
I'll restate my previous comment of a while back. With the equities markets going up at one to four percent a day, why work? Even if the markets go no where point wise, the volatility alone could make you a small fortune in no time. This assumes that you are trading the markets. I suspect the next phase of this mania will be the onslaught of individual investors who come from mutual fund trading in to individual stock trading. After all, I want a stock that goes up twenty-five percent a day too!

When this bubble pops, and it will, cash will not be the place to hide. To the nay sayers, at this rate of exponential growth in the valuation of the stock markets around the world, where will the money come from to pay these players? The U.S. stock market has already passed, in valuation terms, 125% of GDP. This market is presently valued at 1.25 times the total output of goods and services of the entire United States economy! HELLO! Is anybody listening?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 08:15)
My previous post was completely motivated by the need for self preservation. I'd really hate to be hurt by someone who lost everything in the markets and decided to take it out on me, because I happened to be near by. :- ) )

(Wed Jul 23 1997 08:18)
Crisis deepens in Thailand.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 08:24)
For the German deflation story you have to select "Press Releases" after you get the homepage. Then select the 21 July press release.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 08:28)
Panda: I won't take it out on you!...Long bond up 2 ticks...Gold down 1.30...

(Wed Jul 23 1997 08:30)
Trade War looming?

Excerpts from above;

Late on Tuesday, the U.S. House of Representatives approved a resolution,
416-2, giving its sense that EU disapproval would constitute ``unwarranted and unprecedented interference'' with an American business transaction.

Seventy-five senators also sent Clinton a letter urging him to take ``stern retaliatory measures'' if the Europeans voted to block the merger.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 08:31)
Ted -- What do you think of Kevlar as an investment? I hear that Kevlar stops bullets and errant knives. :- ) )

(Wed Jul 23 1997 08:38)
Panda, how about errant knaves.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 08:40)
@news flash!
Trade war cancelled for today.


(Wed Jul 23 1997 08:45)
Roebear -- I'm afraid you'll have to take up arms! Yea verily! Touchee!

:- ) )

How about them Bonds? Folks, I think we have the Second Coming here. The world is now perfect! There is no need for gold! ( Except, of course, as jewelry. ) :- ) )

(Wed Jul 23 1997 08:47)
Now, if I could just fix my TC2000 data files.... Guess I'll have to call Worden later. How does this kind of thing happen???? I knew I should have backed up files last week!

Off to slave duties, BBL.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 08:54)

John Disney - Welcome back. I have this amazing ability to
recognize things precious few people recognize on this channel,
that gold is going nowhere but down, and yet an apparent
inability to recognize that I am suffering from every known
ailment listed in the DSM-IV ( or at least the ones in the
popular press that sound the most amusing or twisted, since
only one person here ( guess who? ) is actually versed
in medicine ) . Thank you for pointing this out. I'm sure your
continued unprovoked attacks on me having nothing to do
with your inability to recognize the current market situation
( over the past year and still ) while knowing yourself ( and perchance your bank
account ) intimately. Oh, and John Disney, you can interpret
what I say about knowing yourself intimately as a projection
mechanism/crude joke coming from someone suffering from a mixed personality disorder ( narcissistic/borderline ) , as wordplay coming from someone
in the manic phase of bipolar disorder ( is everyone writing this down? - I'm
trying to provide some original material for you when you resort to
these kind of psychwar attacks, so you won't be the object
of derision from educated people ) , oh, here's one you should consider,
as the truthful testimony of someone suffering from voyeurism ( peeping
tom syndrome ) .

(Wed Jul 23 1997 09:23)
Kitco's quote of gold being $374 is interesting!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 09:29)

I have grave concerns that George Cole has been replaced by a recording.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 09:32)
EBN Gold down 1.90.....Dow up and it's time to go to the Sydney casino for some real gambling.....BBL

(Wed Jul 23 1997 09:41)
Sovereignty and Money: Past, Present and Future
Glyn Davies, Professor Emeritus of Economics, University of Wales, Cardiff ( UK ) , paints fascinating chronicle of moneys evolution from Jesus to Dostoevsky. An engrossing read of a great scholar:

George Cole
(Wed Jul 23 1997 09:52)
investment strategy

Still a little early to short stocks. My main investment now is cash, but I have modest long positions in gold and stock funds. Plan to get entirely out of stocks soon and add to gold fund positions on weakness.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 09:57)
Please George, don't short this bull market. Save yourself a lot of pain.
Dow 9000 is just around the corner.

Richard Burke
(Wed Jul 23 1997 10:01)
XAU hit down support at 93.50 and has rebounded to 94.20. According to Deaner could be on way to 100-108 if August gold doesn't go below 323. XAU leading gold at this point. XAU just fell back to 94.1 and seems to be wanting confirmation from gold which it hasn't got yet. We are at a very interesting juncture.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 10:15)
Since he is oblivious to our calls for commonsense I will now post, in deference to the sane at Kitco, my:

"Ode to Hepcat"
The Wind-Sucker when he winx at Kitco seems to have a predilection for garboil.
The subsequent dretching of our site is deserving of the cucking-stool.
The doctor, ( if such he really be ) , seems to have a venatical fixation that also requires he venenate all around.
His own fliperous pumpkinification is barely worth a snirtle or a keak.
In fact, he is hardly even worthy of the term 'fonkin' or 'fopdoodle'. Heanling, hufty-tufty, killcow, or mobard are terms which so readily come to mind.
Zoinks' attempts to brangle and his floccinaucinihilipilification habit evoks the desire to cry 'Gardyloo' and mean it!
The effort would, in the end, be wasted.
For, as we all by now realise, the Dragoo is nothing more than a whifling.

bb fisher
(Wed Jul 23 1997 10:41)
to all
to all who have received the zip file with bug tester for Y2K troubles.
as was pointed out to me in a private post this program only the PC's bios not the applications you may be running.
for instance my system is y2k OK but my main trading software from omega research ( great stuff ) is NOT and so i will have full replace the whole program with a newer version unless they can create and update to integrate with my existing program. biy drag really.

i think 'micro' has posted similiar on this forum. it is the applications we run that will make our lives miserable. the computers is the least of it.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 10:42)

Stephen, you're back.
Whew. I was worried. I know you lost that Flag bet and I was hoping
you had some sustenance since that time. It would be interesting to
hear what you've been doing since you lost the bet. I'm sure you'll
be giving us an update on K-2, so I'll go over there and wait for
your concession speech ( get it, concessions? ) .

(Wed Jul 23 1997 10:44)
john : What prices do you forecast for New York spot gold. November 1, 1977, February 1, 1988 and August 1, 1988.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 10:45)
The american investors will have only themselves and Allan Greenspan to blame when the economy and the stock market crashes. Themselves for their greed and STUPIDITY, and Greenspan for fueling their expectations and for doing nothing to prevent this crazy explosion in increase of stock prices. Eventually, because he has no backbone, he will be made the scapegoat for US problems - unless he resigns before years end. Protect your privacy.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 10:48)
Robert Pringle, Head of World Gold Council strongly criticizes Aussie Central Bank ( RBA ) FOLLY in sale of 2/3s of its gold. Following RBA sale, Aussie Gold Reserves lose $3 billion!!!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 10:49)
Would you kindly advise me exectly how high will the stock market go and exectly when will it top out? Or do you feel that it will increase indefinitly?
Best regards

(Wed Jul 23 1997 10:50)

NJ - $325, $325, $325
It is also quite possible that gold will simply be fixed at
$325 or thereabouts by the end of this year due to lack of interest.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 10:53)
john : Forgive my error . Read the years as 1997 and 1998. NotaGoldbug: Your projections for the same dates please.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 10:55)
The pledge
"I will not respond to, comment upon, or recognize in any way,
( 1 ) Any innappropriate post to this group,
( 2 ) Any post from an individual with a recent history of innappropriate posts."

zeke's brother cletus
(Wed Jul 23 1997 10:56)
Based on what fact do you predict DOW 9000? Thank you for your investment advice.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 10:58)

Zeke - Every day you sit around bitchin' is another day you
miss out on making some money. Why fight it?

P.S. Man, if you get in at the exact top, you'll be madder 'n a treed cat.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 10:59)
What's the difference?
"I will not respond to, comment upon, or recognize in any way,
( 1 ) Any inappropriate post to this group,
( 2 ) Any post from an individual with a recent history of inappropriate posts."

(Wed Jul 23 1997 11:00)
The way I see it we hav at this forum fanatical believers in gold, fanatical believers in stocks ( JohnnyBoy hepcat, notagoldbug and other misguided souls ) and George S. Cole and RJ who just make money.
Thanks for your time

(Wed Jul 23 1997 11:01)
Making a quilt for Ray
Out here we say, You can't win a fight with a skunk.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 11:03)

NJ - I didn't even catch that. To be less flip, for any prediction
out beyond six months to prove correct in my case would be a lucky
guess. I've had a string of them recently, but I recognize it can't
go on forever. I am quite comfortable with gold at $325 for the next
three months. Also, since no one follows what I say anyway, it
really doesn't matter if I say $275 or $345.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 11:14)
@don't tangle with Ginger Moggy
The only thing I see in stars and still pools is a large bottle of lithium carbonate with "John Hepcat - Take 500mg b.d." on it. Doctor it's not gold you need coursing through your veins, it's lithium......PLEASE PRESCRIBE YOURSELF SOME for our sanity!!!!!!

emma g
(Wed Jul 23 1997 11:16)
burp gun
I'm a guns, gold, and greens ( cash and veggies ) kind of guy
but I think I'll concentrate on the guns ( machine that is )
as a commodity of which no more ( transferable ) are being made
for us civilians. Don't forget to load up on your MREs and
distilled water ( just in case ) . Hi General !

(Wed Jul 23 1997 11:18)
PGU gold hedging program detailed:

(Wed Jul 23 1997 11:19)
Let's talk about John Hepcat club
Wading through ( I mean skipping over ) all these recent postings - it occurs to me that the "Kitco discussion for investors and market analysts" is slowly becoming the "Let's talk about John Hepcat Club.

And knowing you the way I do John, I know you are loving every minute of it.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 23 1997 11:20)
Why watch "Nightly Business Review" when you can READ it! ( Screened in Australia at Noon WST on SBS Public TV.
Market Analyst Abby Cohen On Dow 8000

PAUL KANGAS: Joining me now to talk about this booming market is Abby Cohen, co-chair of the investment policy committee of Goldman Sachs who's in our New York bureau and welcome back Abby.

Thank you Paul.

KANGAS: Abby, you have been one of the most outspoken of all the bullish analysts on the street since really 1990, 1991 and I know it's a delight to see all those predictions of yours coming true. But is the run away nature of for instance the rally we saw today of some concern to you?

COHEN: I don't think it makes sense to expect this sort of performance on a daily basis, Paul. But as you know, we always focus on a multi-month, if not a multi-year perspective and as we look at this economy, with low inflation, durable profits and we think a recession's still very far off into the future, we're optimistic that stock prices can rise further. It may not happen right away. It may not happen in a straight line, but we don't think this bull market is over.

KANGAS: Right, well you just recently as late June actually, increased your targets for the Standard & Poor's 500 and Dow. Are you going to increase them again after seeing this type of action?

COHEN: What we always do, Paul, is try to focus on the real fundamentals, profits, inflation and so on and what we are advising our clients to do, that is asset allocation. The price targets for us are a secondary or a tertiary sort of exercise. The next time we have a big chunk of fundamental news, probably after the end of this quarterly reporting period, we will review those price targets.
But it's not something we do on a day to day basis.

KANGAS: All right. Understood. In late June, your recommended allocations were 60 percent stocks, 25 percent bonds, 10 percent cash, 5 percent commodities. Any change?

COHEN: There have been no changes since then.

KANGAS: So you're going to stay with that particular allocation percentage?

COHEN: That's right and what we're trying to do is keep the same time horizon as our clients which tends to be measured in months and quarters, not days and weeks.

KANGAS: Are there any special groups that you feel are vulnerable and on the other hand, need to do some buying in?

COHEN: I think there are still some wonderful opportunities in 2 groups we've been talking about before. Technology and financial services, truly growth areas in this economy. Companies in that sector are doing better than the economy and therefore their stocks should be doing better than
the market.

KANGAS: Can we get specific there?

COHEN: Absolutely. Names like Citicorp ( NYSE:CCI ) , global leader. In technology, any number of names. IBM ( NYSE:IBM ) , for example, now trading at 15 times 1997 earnings in a market that is trading at 19 times. We also see great value opportunities in the small and midcap area. The valuation developed at the end of 1996, but now we have the catalyst ...


COHEN: And that catalyst is an investment community that believes with low inflation, we can see profit growth continuing the second half of this year and 1998, makes us willing to stretch out.

KANGAS: All right. Very good Abby. I hope those predictions come true as well. Thanks very much for being with us. My guest, Abby Cohen, of Goldman Sachs.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

( c ) 1997 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 11:21)

Jerry - Why must you try to pigeonhole me? I am not a fanatic about anyhing
except the truth. I am happy that my stocks are performing well right now, but
they are an investment vehicle, not a crusade. Beanie Babies have outperformed
the stock market here in the U.S. over the last three months, Jerry. Beanie babies are something worthy of disdain currently, not the stock market. It's
only your money not to make more of, Jerry. I will be pro-gold when the time

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 23 1997 11:30)
DONALD: Move over Johnie Howard, here come's Hanson ( Pauline ) .
What is happening in Australia is certainly a depression based activity. However, it cannot be successfully overturned. Despite the torrents of media spin against her, she keeps on keeping on. Much to the chagrine of some in the Australian community. She is pushing the Liberal Party ( Conservative ) more to the right, while pushing for job creation.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 11:31)
You are not the only one versed in psychiatry, Hepcat. Inthe country I live and practice in only 2 signatures are required to have a patient involuntarily admitted to a locked psychiatric ward and mine is one! Watch yourself small fry!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 11:34)

JoJo - To the extent that it keeps newcomers here from falling under the
sway of people who chased gold all the way down from $415 to $315 and
still won't admit that wasn't a very smart idea, I am absolutely adoring it.
Also, people are fascinated by car wrecks, and I don't feel I've done my
job if I can't cause at least one major pile-up a week. You can shake your
finger at me all you want, but the SI gold discussion group traffic is way down
since I left and the posts are rather anemic. People have to be challenged
to produce their best work, and I think you'll be surpised when I leave how
someone will step in to fill my role, or the Kitco regulars will bully
someone else into becoming an antagonist. Otherwise we have TED
the human ticker tape giving us hourly updates on gold and George telling
us that the base is still forming on into the next millenium.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 23 1997 11:35)
El Nino update from Australia

(Wed Jul 23 1997 11:38)

MaryMary - Would impersonating a woman be grounds for involuntary
commitment? If so, please tell me what country you live in and I will be
happy to provide the other signature.

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 23 1997 11:46)
China - "Growth" but many lost jobs causes unrest
(Wed Jul 23 1997 11:57)
Sobriquets...John hep-rat-cat...Emoticons...?
John - I for one read and relish all your posts ( and Mike Shellers-"Giant Among Men" ) . There are many others ( posters ) that I apply my speedreading technique to. However, your posts are quite funny AND informative. I'm still cracking up over that "low level burrito residue wafting your way". I can't stop the tears. You have a fantastic vocabulary ( you have that HUGE websters don't ya'? ) and command of the English language. The analogies you use are some for the books. I appreciate and look for those qualities in people. It shows there exists intelligence in a way that I can relate. Thanks Dude. ( from the bottom of my old surf doggin' heart ) . Man, but ya' gotta hear the "other" side. They just want to have fun like you but they want to keep within some "social boundries". I have seen you yuck it up hear w/o using any bile ( for lack of a better and more heplike word ) and I crack-up, as sure as others do. So let's ALL make up and play and make fun and talk about stuff and not be so serious and take a punch once in a while and love our fellow "man" and kiss your husband/wife everyday and tell someone that you LOVE them...blah,blah,blah,etc.,etc.,etc...Sirocco, I love you maaaaannn! Even you Eldorado! I hope you get back soon!!

I'm outta here! I'm setting myself up for a group-ass-kicking, so I have but one thing to say...kick



jh-i looked in several dictonaries for emoticon but could not find it. was it a typo? am i just dumb? Define? thanks in advance...gotta go...EBN up $25.00...NOT!

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 23 1997 12:00)
What AG actually said...

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 23 1997 12:05)
The mystery ( non-existent ) housing boom? in Australia. A very good in-depth article. Worth thinking about.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 12:05)
one more thing...I gotta do harm no foul...right Eldo?
Eldoraado @ the front - Careful about the resistance and the support at the various cross levels of downtrend runn ing trough the uptrend coming across the moving average into the bucket...or out of the bucket... or what is it? "If it won't break north, then it will break south, folks, This could go either way right now".

this is all meant in fun...kind of as a mystery writer for Eldo while he is...


(Wed Jul 23 1997 12:13)
Is the basic investment law of the 1990s -- it is never too late to buy stocks or sell gold -- about to be repealed?

On the matter of annoying posts and posters -- SILENCE IS GOLDEN.

John Disney
(Wed Jul 23 1997 12:15)
for Hepcat
Gee thanks John - are the mean old Kitco wegulars bullying the
wittle booby wooby boy - dont cwy wittle johnny. Dont cwy.
You mean they dont see are SMART and well cweedentialed wittle
johnny isth. Oh wats. And how he guessed 325 and wath wight - mean
old kitco wegularth.
By the way John, there's a gorilla named Max down here who's
anxious to meet you.
Keep up the good work ?? You make me feel so GOOD about myself.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 12:28)
I have enough of this nonsense
I have enough! This skipping through Hepcat vers. Kitco discussion
turned this forum into waste of time. Here is today's statistic:

from 8 am through 12:05 pm there were 53 posts, including:

9 posts from John Hepcat ( 17% )
10 post from other people addressing John's posts ( 19% )
that means 19 posts or 36% is just "John against the rest" bickering.
This is waste of my time.

John, as I understand you are employed by the US government. Not only I
have to waste my time and keystrokes avoiding this discussion but I have
to pay for it with my tax $. Thats more that I am willing to bear with -
and your management should take a note of it!

Enough is enough, I may be back when this nonsense is over!

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 23 1997 12:29)
DONALD: Any comments on Chinese concern over Zinc plays by Westerners?

Steve - Perth
(Wed Jul 23 1997 12:36)
All: Will be going "bush" until weekend, then busy all weekend at the WA Liberal Party State Conference at major hotel in Perth ( on beach ) . Will look back in next Sunday nite. Hopefully the idiot from the Medical Centre is back earning a real crust, instead of adding to the US national debt by wasting tax payers money. Miro is right. One thought. Maybe "hepcat" is a plant that is purposely trying to destroy a very interesting chatline. "Competition" maybe??? Just an interesting twist.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 12:37)
Johny Loser, you are making me proud child! here you are willing to help everybody make money, and look at the lack of respect. They just dont get it do they? Johny, you're going to prove to them, what you have proven all your life! that no matter what, whom or why, you are going to stand up and show them, what a LOSER is and a what LOSER will be. That's right child, you're showing your true colors and make me so proud, as only your mother could be!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 12:38)
with all due respect to EVERYONE...
Who gives a rat's ass ( other than the knee-jerk Yahoos ) what Allan Greenspan says or does not say! It is a shame that ONE man holds this power like "AG". I feel sorry for this man. He has an incredible burden to try to fix what ALL have started? How can this be?? Refer to VIESERRE 22:14 a few days back. There are trees, get yer heads OUT of the oragamies! God, I want to scream! Instead I think I'll go check the waves. That seems to have a calming effect on me...breath deep eric, breath deep...

DOW - 9,000, 10,000, 15,000? BFD! the trees...eric...the trees...I.R.A.'s eric that's IT...LONG term eric Long term ( retirement ) ...

Now surf or fight? The choice is easy...breath...relax...



(Wed Jul 23 1997 12:38)

EB - Thank you quite a lot. Emoticons are the sideways smiley faces or
frowny faces used to express emotions. If you go to Dave Barry's web
page ( ) , you will see more elaborate examples, although some are a bit lame.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 12:44)
Technology keep up...
Thank you for the URL. Although I still prefer the touchy feely of a BIG Webster's...I must go buy the updated version...away :- ) ) ) )


(Wed Jul 23 1997 12:44)
Technology keep up...
Thank you for the URL. Although I still prefer the touchy feely of a BIG Webster's...I must go buy the updated version...away


(Wed Jul 23 1997 12:50)
what I meant was...

) :-Q-... gotta match?


(Wed Jul 23 1997 12:57)
Don't GO Miro!...I love you too man!
Please stay! Pretty please! See, you can yuck it up too. Doooooon't gooooooooooooo!

now, I promise, I'm going...


(Wed Jul 23 1997 13:01)
not addressed to Johhny - but about him
I have been lurking here for ever ( it seems ) . Johnny's appearance has been a real problem. Please, please do not respond to him in kind. This merely aggravates the problem! IMHO he is very intelligent, and does know his stuff. He has his own investing opinions, and his recent track record has been very good. His only problem ( and no - I do not think he is medically ill! ) is that he is ( probably ) young, definitely arrogant, thin-skinned, and has a talent for rudeness. He has yet to learn that to get people to listen to his opinions, he *must* be level headed, and refrain from impoliteness. As he grows older, he will ( hopefully ) learn this lesson, and the immense value of politeness, sang froid, calmness, and humility. ( If not, I predict a short and incredibly unsatisfying life for him. ) Either way, whether I am right or wrong, it does not help to do anything but read ( and *not* respond to ) his posts until he begins to show "civilized" verbal behaviour. This is my first post, and may be my last for quite a while. *** back to lurking ***

(Wed Jul 23 1997 13:13)

Symbol - Fair enough, but I must respond to one misrepresentation.
I am not thin-skinned. Have you read Call of the Wild? As I remember it,
there is one chapter about the Rules of Club and Fang, or something like
that, where Buck ( the converted sled dog ) learns that he has to kill or be
killed, that different rules apply up in the Yukon. If I was thin-skinned,
I would have left the site a long time ago. I am quite thick skinned, and
operate ( and I know you're getting tired of reading this, but people still
haven't gotten the message ) under one rule: No one attacks me with
impunity. It's that simple. If you don't dish it out to me, then you won't
get it back in kind ( and probably four-fold ) . I'm not claiming that I am
going to win, or that I am even going to be effective, but you can be
sure I am going to try.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 13:33)
" I'm not claiming that I am
going to win" Johny Loser
That's telling them like it is, child! you're not going to quit and go away, so that they can continue their loquacious conversation.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 13:43)
Need HELP too long on gold and too short on stocks. Any advice
would be appreciated. Also, any recommendations on a good FUNNY FARM?
I think I am ready to get butchered and turned into sausage.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 13:44)
EB: Well said! How old is greenspan......?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 13:52)
Put a cork in it!! This John critter is probably a paid dole to the establishment that wants the true heros of the gold war to succumb
to his demented way of thinking. His mission is to break us down and
divide us in frustration and it working for atleast some. His glory is only short lived and as such his or its days of numbered..Have they issued you a shoe phone yet, microbe!!

**Intelligent conversation from many participants on Kitco is invaluable, don't let John the PC doctor ruin a good thing! I can see it now at control central Agent John Lickmeboots. Number 1 has got to be
someone at the Fed, he or it can't be for real!!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 13:55)
What won't go up will go down. It looks like we are going to test to find what the next trading range will be. I hope it turns out to be about $15.00 wide. That would be enough to let us make some $$$$$$...

(Wed Jul 23 1997 13:55)

Hey Mom ( this is so eerie ) - Why is it that us Loser's are so good at
winning bets and so lousy at collecting on them? Remember when
you used to come into my room at night crying because you were so
morbidly obese and everyone called you the biggest Loser of all in the
Kitco family, how you were a man pretending to be a woman which made
you subject to even more jibes? Well, Mom, I'm behind you ( although
not directly, cause you sometimes don't wash well in between folds of
skin, plus there is the constant worry about having you topple over on me ) .
I don't mind that your posts are even more far afield than mine are, in fact,
why don't you tell that one story about the time you kept blaming a certain
bodily function on the dog? What a hoot. You are such a Loser, Mom, we
both are such Losers. I'm at least happy that I can pay for the crane to move
you from room to room with all my Loser money from not listening to the
Whiner, sorry, the Winner family you were born into.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 13:58)
STEVE-PERTH: That story about zinc prices clearly points out the difference between a Communist centrally planned system and a free market. When a state owned manufacturer buys zinc from a state owned mine it can get it at any price it wants. And you can set any politically acceptable price you want for your finished products. If you want to be a full participant in an open world economy then you have to learn and abide by the rules of the group ( lesson for Kitcoites here ) . However, I have to throw a spear at all so-called capitalists, all over the globe. They talk a lot about free markets, but for the other industries. There is always "something special" about their own industry that deserves a special quota, tariff or subsidy of some sort. This is not just a Chinese disease.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 14:07)
Of course this is a purely hypothetical excersize in Web Surfing. I do
NOT recommend that anybody would try something like this. It is UNETHICAL
and it is WRONG and you mite get SUED!!!

BUT if someone was bothered by a shittykitty who was always pawwing in his
own excrument and slinging it around AT EVERYONE IN SITE one response
would be to FINGER said SMELLYCAT at
where "hostname" might be
and "username" might be shittykitty
( so you would type in )

Then with shittykittys real name in hand, a wrongdoer MIGHT go to SMELLYCATS
departments page at and send email to everybody on
the list warning him that he was working with a CRAZYCAT and that his life and the
lives of his coleagues and friends might very
well be in danger from this sciopath. This wrongdoer would include choice specemens of LOONEYCATS
Kitco rants, along with Kitcos address
bin/comments/gold/display_short.cgi? so that the endangered coleague might verify for
hisself that he was working with a CUNANAN type FRUITCAKECAT. Other KEY INDIVIDUALS at
simular biodepartments throughout the land could be notified as well to be on the look
out for a freeking unemploiable failed acadumbic research assistunt RATCAT lunatic which was
looking for a position and more victims ( wrongdoer would supply institution with DINGYCATS writing
samples and scratches. ) If I was a WACKYCAT I'd sure think it sucked to be me then, cuz I
wouldnt want any body in cell biology to know how truely LOONEY and dangerus I really wuz!

All email notices to these professers could then be followedup by anonomus snailmail letters to make shure they
reach the intended addressee person. The wrongdoer would make dubbuly shure they was
anonomus because you dont want to get on the wrong side of a

Finnally some one could go to and look up SNIVELINGCATS
personell address and telephon number so that he could discorse with said
selfesteem and his turdsniffing fetishes at all hours of the day and nite. And to top it off a REALLY
MEAN person would be TOTALLY WRONG to send anonomous notices and proof of lunacy to
every address at say 43xx USA Rd warning his nayburs that they have a
GICALLYINGWENIEWACKINGCREEP living next door. And to keep their children and pets

Of course "It would be a Bad Thing if that happened, which is
why nobody from Kitco has done so already. IT WOULD BE WRONG"
But I really can't say that with authority, can I? How am I to know for sure if one of us is not doing
this right now? I guess I'll just have to take a leep of faith on this one. IT WOULD BE WRONG.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 14:21)
Child, you are in a state of delirious delusion and allucinating again. Poor child, its all my fault, perhaps they were my Walter Mitty's stories, you're favourite hero. And your "Kitco family ( ? ) " think you are a government spy! when in fact you are just plain Johny Loser, a lonely, misunderstood, child!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 14:32)
Bart, Bart - Pleeeese stop this hepcat. He is singlehandedly destoying this forum, and I'm sure he is quite proud of it.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 14:36)
Bart - The squelch function won't help, as it seems people can't keep from repsonding to his nonsense.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 14:41)
There are so many large cracks in the world's financial system that Greenspan didn't dare give a negative report. He stressed that he would provide the cement of liquidity to attempt to patch those cracks. Can today be similar to Italy of the late 15th century? There was great prosperity in Florence and money was pouring into the strongest financial institutions in the world. Florence would prosper forever. --history intervened and catastrophe ensued. Today's history rhymes with most other times in history when a period of great affluence that seemed that it would go on forever all too quickly turned to economic and human catastrophe. The inflation is similar, real estate prices are similar, wealth distribution is similar demographics are similar, the escalation of crime is similar but far less--at least we haven't taken to eating the dead. All we need is a plague or do we have one already. History doesn't necessarily repeat itself but it certainly can. Maybe Alan Greenspan is a very brave man; maybe the dike is ready to burst and only Alan stands alone plugging the dike with his thumb.

Symbols and Signs

The society of merchants can be defined as a society in which things disappear in favor of signs. When a ruling class measures its fortunes, not by the acre of land or the ingot of gold, but by the number of figures corresponding ideally to a certain number of exchange operations, it thereby condemns itself to setting a certain kind of humbug at the center of its experience and its universe. A society founded on signs is, in its essence, an artificial society in which man's carnal truth is handled as something artificial.
Albert Camus ( 1913-60 ) , French-Algerian philosopher, author. Lecture, Dec. 1957, University of Uppsala, Sweden ( published as "Create Dangerously," in Resistance, Rebellion and Death, 1961 ) .

(Wed Jul 23 1997 14:51)

Or, to save you the trouble:

John Meissner
4310 American Drive, Apt. A
Durham, NC 27705

phone number: 919-382-7423

(Wed Jul 23 1997 15:14)
Rambling commentary on a slow day
Interesting article in WSJ about currency devaluation in SE Asia. The dollar is the rock of international currency, apparently. It is curious that currency, recursively, defines its own value. Nothing beneath it other than an ( allegedly ) healthy world economy. Noone can deny that the world dropped the gold standard and ( so far ) has survived the decision. If the US sold its gold, would that destabilize the dollar? Who knows?

And _when_ are we going to start referring to web sites without that " http://www." in front? Where I live, a local call is 10 digits long - 11 if you are exiting a business phone system. I have 4 email addresses - actually, an infinite number if you count the fact will get to me. Why do I have my own domain name? Well, it only costs $50 per year, plus whatever the web hosting charge is.

Certainly the discussion group format of Kitco is a major winner. Why is this group so much fun? An unwritten law that in some way every post should constitute a contribution to the general well-being of the participants ( this post may not qualify, sorry, but it has been a slow day ) , perhaps? A light sprinkling of lean & clean humor and irreverence, on a base of solemn acceptance of the greater principles of finance and human relationship? Three sentences in a row without a real verb? Who knows?

Let's talk about movies. Took all my kids to see The Lost World - not a classic, but good clean fun, no kissing and no cussin ( well very little, anyway ) . Also, the gore scenes are tastefully understated, in general. Another nice family movie - Rent a Kid. Highly recommended. Again, no Oscars here. I have eight children ( ages 17,15,13,...2 ) and one due in November. Hey, nothin says lovin like somethin from the oven, right? How many you got? Two are headed for Chihuahua Mexico tomorrow on a mission trip. Bram, age two. Know anyone named Bram? How about Tessa? Odd names. Beautiful children. Marvelous creatures.

And how come Tortfeasor is so funny, but every time anyone else tries to post a joke it turns out to be so lame? And why is Cherokee so interesting and mysterious, even though he never says anything? And what makes Eldorado seem so wise and serene? And why do I read all those gold analyst ramblings and enjoy them, even though their predictive abilities are ( seemingly ) nil? I was just recommended a book about the coming world financial disaster - the book was written in 1941!! This guy has not been vindicated in 56 years! Nearly all his intended audience is dead, and here some Ph.D in history is saying, Read this guy, it's great stuff.

You see, analysis is not about being right in the short term. It's about getting ahold of those deep ocean currents, currents out of the view of the common man, that may not hit the shore in his lifetime. But which will alter the paths of mankind.

And when you're plumbing the depths of your soul and the depths of society to get to those currents, you may look pretty stupid.

John Lennon talked about "the fool on the hill."

If I walk into the casino and pick three numbers in a row at the roulette wheel, people will grant me credibility. These people call the psychic hotline. This is insanity. These people pay money to organizations that provide "hot" lottery numbers. This is crazy. Why are people crazy?

Is it crazy to invest in precious metals? How about precious metals stocks? My brother, MBA Wharton, fell off his chair onto Wall Street laughing. "What? You invested in Canadian mining stocks!" Hey, I thought maybe George Domolky know what he was doing. "Everybody on Wall Street knows the Dow is worth at least 6700." So he says, 2, I'm working on a $4 billion deal. That $40 mil for my company. I say, I hope he pulls it off.

So what do you want? Three numbers in a row, or a book that's wrong 56 years straight?

I'll take the book.

Go gold.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 15:18)
DJ, Mother and others: Methinks thou doth protest too much. Don't you realize John is the best thing that has happened to Kitco 1 ? I suspect there are lots of lurkers out here who, like me, tune in regularly to check on the latest action between John and his opponents. Before, Kitco was dominated by a few old goldbugs, nodding off in their comfy chairs while pontificating about the eventual renaissance in gold, while gold itself drifted ever lower. Then along came Johnny, like a wolf among the chickens, and sent the feathers flying ! Now Johnny has certainly sorted the sheep from the goats here. The best of the old guard, those who are capable of matching wits with the hepcat, have been provoked, prodded and challenged into producing some of their best ever work. The others, unfortunately, have resorted to banalities ( which hepcat himself is not averse to using, I might add ) . I am sad to have to include John Disney among the latter group - JD, your last posts to hepcat were unworthy of your talents. DJ, if people cannot help themselves from responding to John, that is their problem, not his. And you are correct; the proposed squelch button is much more likely to be used to turn off Vronsky's billboards than hepcat's provocations. And what ever happened to free speech in the land of the free ?
John, my hat's off to you - I don't know how you find the time and energy to keep up the barrage. But tell me, are you simply a "one-hit wonder" with 3-2-5, or do you have further predictions in store ?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 15:20)
You Gene
Very nice post. Where'd you come from?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 15:23)
I Apparently Got the Wrong Forum
Excuse me, I apologize, I apparently got the wrong forum. I thought this site was for "Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts".

(Wed Jul 23 1997 15:27)
2: Are you going to tell us the name of the book?

Commisar KGB
(Wed Jul 23 1997 15:30)
Now KGB has schane to do Servitz

Ve send best Doctor Agent ( for crazsy people ) Vldamir Igoraski to help crazsy hep-kat guy in Durham N.C.
Ve mak klearing vit CIA to fly MIG Ambulanze von Durham N.C. to the General Nut House Siberia. RJ, you not to vorry only platinum on MIG is in eLekronik Geer. Karburator now at Truk stop in Albania. You think Hep-kat crazsy, kome to Tirana, then you zee crazsy.

bb fisher
(Wed Jul 23 1997 15:34)
rah rah
platinum to gold= better than 1 to 1
rhodium to gold= 1 to 1
palladium to gold= 1 to 1...well not yet but GO palladium
silver to gold= well 1 to 1 will take a few more years
dirt to gold= hey hepcat... all much longer before we get parity

(Wed Jul 23 1997 15:35)
I vant mein geld!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 15:42)
All the bookcases of the world are now obsolete. Why? Ok, I'll tell you why. Because I just looked at the EBN stock list. All the future books on economic history will have to be SEVERAL INCHES TALLER to accomodate the new stock charts.

2 with some early 1940s books
(Wed Jul 23 1997 15:53)
Comin back at ya good buddy
Is it just me, or do stocks seem to be weathering bullion's troubles fairly well today?

Sorokin is a new rock on my personal philosohical sojourn, but here goes:

Ptirim A. Sorokin author.

Books: The Crisis of Our Age ( ~1941 ) and Man and Society in Calamity ( ~1942 )

Excerpts from The Crisis of Our Age at

Biography of Sorokin at

For the record: The directions of society and culture are causally related, bidirectionally, to the ascribed value of precious metals. The interests of PM analysts often extend into such realms. As such, this poster humbly deems this matter relevant to the purpose of this forum, and remains of course completely and thoroughly receptive to any and all civilly offered assertions to the contrary.

bb fisher
(Wed Jul 23 1997 15:54)
follow this link
this story is the most important one in todays news.

the dam is cracking and once robust encryption is incorporated into bowsers and transactions on the net reflect this fact it is only a matter of time before digital money NOT issued by governments comes into reality in direct competition with dollars, marks, pounds- pick a flavor.
when that happens all economic behavior will become voluntary. comprende!

this will happen much sooner than anyones relaizes! and with its emergence we will see new and more exciting forms of democracy al over the world. not the rah rah PC democracy that is pushed out by the politicians and the media.
wanna bet some of the private digital issuers will have gold backed money if only as way of attracting new customers?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 15:58)
Sitting on the porch
We have no mountains here. So I just enjoy Schippi's graph when I feel the need to see some glorious peaks.

Tough day, boys. But we'll be back tomorrow, won't we?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 16:00)
@ in hiding
Comisar KGB: Ven in N.C. is ok pick up Jesse Helms to take Siberia?
Vhy mak zecund trip? Avait orders.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 16:01)
Going Up?
Just heard an interview on CNBC with Steve? of Goldman Sacks. He thinks metals prices now have the best chance for rising than anytime in the last three years. He didn't really explain why but I think it has to do with improvements in the European economy.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 16:02)
Now that's a thought
BB - privately issued, gold-backed, digital currency? And thus, privatize the world economic system? I like it. Get the revolution started!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 16:22)
Got blown out and now saltcrusted...
Let's ramble:
Piggy - Exit Gold - Buy Stocks w/w then act acordingly...
Gene@Reality - Printed it! I'm gonna look up that Camus dude...
2 ( formerly 2weeks? ) - Eight kids??!? And time to ramble on midday...I am not worthy...anyway...jolly good ramblings...thanks...GIVE ME THE NUMBERS anyday...but I'll read the book.
Cupid - THAT was FUNNY...JohnH, ya' must admit, that was good stuff...
Addict-C - Feathers are flying...Peoples best work...Yes...
KGB - Let's get ready to RUUUUUUMBLE!
J. Disney - Rj tried that with the hep-rat-cat didn't suit him well either...but you are groovy, BABY...YEEEEEAAAA! ( Mike Myers, international spy )
RJ - Party at my place, I invited the Roooskies. BYOPL.


(Wed Jul 23 1997 16:26)
@ home
From irrational exuberance to irresponsible reluctance.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 16:29)
Toronto exchange
For you traders who use the Toronto Stock Exchange. As a USA citizen, is there any problem with my buying stock on the TSE? I assume quotes are in Canadian dollars. Can I buy thru a USA broker, such as Schwab?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 16:33)

Nice prose, a real pleasure to read. Keep up the good work.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 16:34)
bbfisher...What part of ol' Blighty?
Where ( about ) do you live? I have some good chappy-dude friends down in Surrey. Where we go to bet the ponies and get pissed-up...I miss those Sots. Jason ( one of them ) works in London and takes the train. Perhaps you have seen him. He is the one that places "post-its" on his forehead to "tell" the gracious folks near him to wake him from his drunken slumber at his final destination. It's all quite funny. You Chappy-boys are quite the jar-o-laughs...and thanks for all your posts.

away :-Q


(Wed Jul 23 1997 16:36)

Addict-C - Hey, thanks. It has always been my belief that there are a lot
of talented thinkers and writers lurking on this site. Please jump into
the fray more often. Don't worry about the crank phone calls and the
crackpot E-mails. About once a month the UNC biotech computer
support guy forwards the gems that he gets begging to have my
account terminated, and we have a good laugh. The letters are always
so earnest ( "He is DESTROYING a wonderful site with his childish antics" )
and the authors so off-center that he said it reminds him of the letters
his dad got while on the city council from people distraught over putting fluoride
in the water. Sorry, Hepcat haters, but you have to come up with a better reason ( and I would heartily recommend a better proofreading ) to have my account terminated than "he is suck an asshole".

(Wed Jul 23 1997 16:38)

Where do you get this info on the ole sack o coins. Sounds like a free call option. Can you shed some more light on the topic? TIA.

P.S. Off to hit some golf balls. Must tune up my game for a member guest. Too bad I have a legit handicap. I know I'm in for a serious sandbagging.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 16:38)
I would like to make a suggestion that could get this message board back to its intended purpose. I would apprieciate hearing your best aurgument for and against investing in Gold now and in the future. So, Ted, George, Hepcat, Leaner, Notagoldbug, Miro, Disney, Mary-Rose, Jojo, and any others involved in this conflict - Just give us the facts as you see them. I think we are all intelligent enough to take from each what is important to help us evaluate this investment. No attacks, counter-attacks or rebuttals. Just the facts! It has been fun watching the conflict, but now is the time for a truce. I realize I am not a regular contributor and I don't have much experience with the metals. That is why I come here and read. What do y'all say? Don't respond, just do it. Thanks.

I'll get the ball rolling. Hepcat, in your opinion, what conditions do you think are needed to turn gold around? George, Ted, how about y'all. What event/events to you think could make Gold run up.

Just give me your opinion without attacking the others guys. After all, opinions are like assholes. We all have one and they all stink!


(Wed Jul 23 1997 16:41)
Here is my opinion. I think the economy is like a bb rolling down a razor blade. If it stays the way it is going, all will be fine. If we have to fast growth the bb will fall on the inflation side. If the ecomomy slows down it will fall on the recession side. Both ways the stock market will fall ( and hard ) . Can the ecomomy stay on this exact track of low inflation, low employment and record earnings. I don't think so. That is why I think gold is a good alternate.

There, that wasn't hard. No attacks, no counter attacks. Just my stinky opinion.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 16:43)
(ed to Kitco, not substances)
They probably won't talk to me now - I can't understand why :V:-|
But you didn't answer my last question - do you have any further gold price predictions forthcoming ?

Commisar KGB
(Wed Jul 23 1997 16:49)
Uder Guy to Old

KGB: Jesse to old for Siberia, ve need strong yung crazsy hep-kat typ foe xperiment. Besides ve kan't get CIA klearance. KGB never kid nap ole-guy. Good gob vit Karburator, ve mak you promotion and zend to new offvitz in Kalifornia.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 16:54)
(ed to Kitco)
Machf15: A very sensible suggestion. I will be shorting gold all the way to $300. Why, because I like round numbers, and I think a lot of other people do too. At that point, I will close out and be like Selby - long cash - until I decide what to do next.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 17:00)
to Kitco
Machf15: BTW, if you are wondering about the rationale ( with an "e" ) behind my strategy, I borrowed it from John Maynard Keynes. Whether you agree or disagree with his economics, there is no doubt he was a gun speculator - he increased the endowment of Kings College, Cambridge, by a factor of ten !

(Wed Jul 23 1997 17:11)
Machf15 @ 16:38
I must agree. While guilty of jumping into this particular fray in the past, I have come to the conclusion that the only way to deal with our limicolous members, is to not get in the mud with them.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 17:12)

Mach - Happy to oblige. For gold to turn around, it would require
brainwashing of all people who invested in gold after 1980 and lost money.
It is not enough to be able to sell gold to people who already like gold,
you have to be able to sell gold to people who have no interest in gold.
And let me tell you, Mach, not just the word on the street but the word
from the street ( and I am definitely pounding the pavement every week )
is "gold? Bleech". You can't do anything with it once you buy it. You
can't display it, you can't drop it into cocktail conversation and impress
friends with it, and worst of all, right now, you can't make any money from
all your pains of owning it, and there is a lot of ridicule and sniggling that
gets appended to your name when you are identified as a gold owner.
What causes the boom in any commodity? When the casual investor
or non-investor gets involved. When is that going to happen for gold?
Well, never, as long as this site propagates the perception of gold
owners as: 1. Camo-clad anti-govenrment gun-loving paranoid
doomsdayers and 2. Anti-government out-of-touch newsletter-writing
bitchy old guys. It is simply not cool to own gold right now, and you can discount
this all you want and say it is not important, but it is vitally important - Why is
the stock market doing so well, and why will the stock market continue to
do well? Because people are sheep, and right now they are very well fed
sheep. Why would they want to come over to something that has only
disappointed them in the past 17 years, and further, have to associate
with the breed of sheep currently holding gold?
Naturally, if there is a major world crisis, rampant inflation, blah, blah, blah...
Also, it's kind of paradoxic, but gold will rise when gold starts to rise -
when people get that feeling that someone else ( and stupider ) is making
money in gold that they are entitled to. And this will happen for any and no reason,
except that CNBC will be able to explain it weeks after the fact, incorrectly.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 17:12)
Thanks for the honest opinion. I will put that in my brain ( along with hopefully other honest opinions ) and try to come up with my own strategy.


(Wed Jul 23 1997 17:30)
Friend of Earl's
hey,hey,hep-cat.....don't disagree with a your analysis of "when will gold turnaround"
however you are referring to what I think is the speculative reason for getting into gold.
Methinks that there are many people ( Asian and others ) who will see gold as a necessity.
All it takes is for these forlorn people to decide to buy a gold coin or several silver coins
and gold will turn...

(Wed Jul 23 1997 17:34)

Addict - Did you check out the emoticon Hall of Fame?
I'm kind of fresh out of predictions until after July 29. It really is
draining to make a prediction and then spend a lot of time
"forcing" the market to meet that prediction with brain waves,
implied threats, cajoling, pleas to a god of fairness, etc.
In fact, most of my time is spent imagining the abuse I will get
at this site the first time I am incorrect. Gold is going down, and I
like your commonsense approach of round numbers, but you
can tell I'm most confident about this when the drop is swift, when
the back of gold is broken $3 or more dollars in a day, and I hate it
when it tacks back and forth, like it's doing now. I am not losing
confidence, just tempering my comments to fit the audience. The
Art of War is a very good book, do you think so?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 17:36)
if you give a person enough rope, most will inevitably
hang themselves.

it appears that rat-cat has done just that.

if he does work for the cdc with a normal job ( days ) ,
then he must be using the govt's resources to harrass
people over the internet. if this is the case, what
would it take to resolve this problem? his correct
name and address, and an archive of the instances.
his arrogance has accomodated all of his kitco "friends."
his recent post giving his real name and pertinent data
has opened the door for "any one of his friends" to inform the
cdc of his activities relative to his job. productivity
must be nil due to his constant posting. use of gov't equipment
to harrass anyone is unlawful. posting constantly through-out the
day instead of working, constitutes theft from the gov't and

surely there are quite a few in upper-management who would love
to be apprised of the situation. there is probably a web-site ( cdc )
where he could be "outed", and helped on his merry way to earning
a real income from investing in what he professes to know volumes

what say you kitco-ites? let's open the door and shine the light on
the rat-cat, and see how long he is allowed to continue wasting
the govt's money. his e-mail address appears to be linked to some
type of entity other than a commercial enterprise ( isp )

he spreads good-will around kitco to any and all; let's
spread some around HIS cat-box, and see how the kitty-litter
smells when deposited where it originates.

cherokee!; ) "the best defense, is a good offense." gen. george patton

(Wed Jul 23 1997 17:38)

Paul - Well, then, that's your catalyst. I'm sorry to be so America-centric,
but I can't think that some 40-year-old squash-playing Bostonian is going
to get into gold because they are wild about it in India and China. America
moves the market, and American press fuels the market. I'll be happy
to be proven wrong.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 17:44)
Cherokee - My, we've been awfully busy today, haven't we?
And projected to be busier in the future, it seems. Cherokee,
I would think you would appoint yourself head of this committee,
and I will be happy to assist you in any way I can. Could you give
me your telephone number, name, E-mail address, prison ID,
name that's sewed onto your workshirts at the gast station, anything?
again ( I guess I misplaced these from the last time ) , so the CDC can contact you?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 17:44)
down on technical reasons
Gold lower on technical weakness ( their tone is getting "milder" as to "damage control"

(Wed Jul 23 1997 17:48)
Fed's Rivlin, Meyer don't focus much on gold price
Interesting question posed to Federal Reserve Vice Chair Alice Rivlin

(Wed Jul 23 1997 17:49)
A friend recently asked me if now was a good time to buy gold. I asked her" out of all the dollars invested in your portfolio how much gold do you already own." "None," she replied. "How many of your friends own gold" I further asked. "None" she said. " Would you buy stock in a company with a product nobody wanted to purchace" I followed. "Of course not" she said.

And there was the answer for her. I purchace shares in companies that has a market and demand for a product I don't see this is the case for gold. I realize many of you will say that asia has a demand, but I will respond that the younger generation in that region is becoming more westernized, and there is greater demand for western name brands ( and stock in the same companies ) .

I will not deny that some day the goldbugs will ride the bull, but for now I'll stay short.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 17:51)
Russia would increase its gold reserves.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 17:52)
I can't find limicolous in mine...RJ please define...I am using a Webster's II??? the book store

eb \;- )

(Wed Jul 23 1997 17:56)
Greenspan on budget policy-
( it'll be somebodyelse's problem ) Greenspan: ``One thing, I think, everybody agrees on is that the shock to the fiscal structure as we move towards 2010

(Wed Jul 23 1997 17:58)
MACHF15: Investing in gold from these levels is a no-brainer. Inflation or deflation does not matter. I am predicting deflation, followed by inflation in the following years. Just a guess but I would say 1 year of deflation, worldwide, to start.

If you own gold in an inflation you will at least keep even with the cost of living from this point. That was not true if you bought in 1980 but it is true now.

If you own gold in a deflation YOU WILL STAY AHEAD of the cost of living, EVEN THOUGH THE DOLLAR VALUE OF YOUR GOLD MAY DECLINE. Stocks, houses, buildings, everything else will drop in price faster than gold.

I think the trap in gold is the use of leverage. Until we are absolutely sure on the deflation-inflation question, leverage should be avoided. In a deflationary environment a person who is heavily in debt has in effect used margin to establish a position in gold. It is more important to be entirely debt free in a deflationary environment.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:02)

Hurry before they change to new edition. London Financial Times take on Greenspan's comments a bit different than US press and markets. Click on A.G's mug to get story.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:03)
at 6000 it was 'irrational' at 8100+ "not out of line" ( give me a break ) where's is his creditability?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:07)
GARY: Please conduct an experiment for me. The next time you see her ask her if she would rather own 1 share of each of the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones or 25 St. Gaudens $20 gold pieces. I am curious what the answer will be.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:09)
ed to Kitco
Sorry, had to go buy some milk to feed one substance addiction ( caffeine ) . Yeah, enjoyed the Emoticon HoF. Thanks for the reply.
Sun Tzu: "The clever combatant imposes his will upon the enemy, but does not allow the enemy's will to be imposed upon him. By holding out advantages to him, he can cause the enemy to approach of his own accord; or, by inflicting damage, he can make it impossible for the enemy to draw near"

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:10)
Gold Bottom
Gold has reached the bottom last week about $315 if I remember correctly because we have a very unique and significant spike up last week, Greenspan's report slowed it down but not really significant and gold held when DOW hit 8000. I go along with Big Trader- my interpretation of what he said is bull show is coming. IMHO it has started already. I waited for seven months and this may be IT!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:11)
just in case, some were not registered users, or didn't want to bother to register here is F/T article
US interest rates: Greenspan warns on
inflation outlook


By Gerard Baker in Washington

Mr Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, sounded
another strong warning yesterday that the current benign combination of
robust growth and low inflation in the US economy was likely to prove
temporary. He said the Fed stood ready to raise interest rates at the first
sign of accelerating prices.

Presenting his semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins report to the US congress
on the state of the economy, Mr Greenspan said recent performance had
been "exceptional". The current expansion was the third longest since
1945; yet, in contrast to the typical business cycle, measured inflation was
now lower than when the expansion began.

But the Fed's policymakers had been "puzzled" by the subdued nature of
inflation in spite of an unemployment rate currently near a 25-year low, he
said. "With considerable momentum behind the expansion and labour
market utilisation rates unusually high, the Federal Reserve must be alert to
the possibility that additional action might be called for to forestall
excessive credit creation."

Financial markets reacted positively to Mr Greenspan's prepared remarks,
relieved that they did not contain any explicit reference to concerns about
stock prices. Shortly after he began speaking, the Dow Jones Industrial
Average jumped 85 points to 8054.

His presentation included the Fed's latest economic forecasts for this year
and next. It forecast overall growth this year to be 3-3.25 per cent, up
from last year's 2.4 per cent. But the rate of consumer price inflation is
now expected to be slower than expected. The consumer price index was
forecast to rise 2.25-2.5 per cent this year, compared with a projection of
2.75-3 per cent.

In March the Fed raised short-term interest rates by 0.25 points, the first
rise for two years, as output surged in the first quarter at an annual rate of
5.9 per cent. The growth rate slowed to about 2.5 per cent in the second
quarter, reducing inflationary pressures, but Mr Greenspan said this could
be reversed in the current quarter.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:12)
Checked out Yahoo and read that PGU has forward hedge contracts covering the rest of their gold production for 1997 at an avg price of $435/oz. To bad their stock doesn't reflect this.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:17)
I'm not a Gold-bug, I'm an investor ....

As an Gold-bug this would be heredical .... From an investors view ....

I believe Gold has seen it's day and it's over.

One can make money in gold stocks though just riding the ups and downs of the prices. 5% here and there, 4 times a year, and you've got 20%. That's a decent return for a no-brainer routine. Want more? Play the technologies.

The new digital society has and will continue to grow because of it's ease of use to the general family. No-one wants to go back to the barter/trade gold for goods days again. The government wants ALL transactions to become digital ( bank cards that contain money ) so that they can wipe out the underground economy and collect All taxes due on any sale using the cards. ( ie. If I want to buy a used couch from you at a garage sale, the digital age ensures that the government will get the appropriate taxes as it could demand that the monies withdrawn from your account automatically have the sales tax deducted at source when you top up your card at the local branch ATM etc. It's already available in Canada! )

The society with the greatest to lose will not let Gold climb again. The rest of the world agrees, since they are co-conspirators to the necessitity of continuance down this path. Even the Japanese realise that it's impossible to change the course now. The king has clothes since everyone else is nude as well. There's no way around it without "shooting your own foot" routines.

Everytime the price of gold has gone up, it seems to hit the just "dropped through" resistance level. Each time it goes down, a new resistance level is created. Demand is the only thing that will break a resistance level. There is no demand as long as the stock/bond market does well and they will do well even when falling since there are so many dollars/yen/dm's etc. in the world , as well as multi Billion dollar mutual funds, that need the stocks/bonds to go higher that it will not be allowed to fail. IF it ever does fail, then whole countries will be wiped out, not just investors. The world will not allow the disease to spread beyond it's control. It will adjust the accounts somehow, in probably the same manner as it did with the Hunt brothers in silver. Big Brother will prevail because in our hearts, we want him to, since it would be too disruptive to our everyday lives to be otherwise. We are creatures of habit. Life is good, keep it that way.

From a gold-bugs point of view, the world is in turmoil. We see it as having debts that must be re-paid ( we were probably brought up as thinking that debts must be paid! ) . The present world order doesn't believe that line anymore. CaptKev from the privateer said it the other day. I've said it before as a joke to D.A. but it's becoming a trueism. The ( fill in your country name ) doesn't have a debt problem. The guy who lend us the money has the problem.

We laugh because we've been taught to pay back what we owe. If we don't accept that teaching, then the statement is correct and not funny, if you're the lender. The borrower says that you were just too greedy and who in their right mind would ever pay back to a greedy person. The poor will agree to screw the greedy rich every time. So what if you don't want to lend anymore money to me! If you want my business, you'll lend! Just ask any bankruptcy about the new credit cards they can get as soon as they're discharged!

The old morals re money have disappeared. Therefore, the old feelings of gold as necessary for stability are no longer needed, nor apparent, in our daily lives. Supply will be forthcoming to any buyer through the CB's. in order to keep the system afloat. If there's a constant supply available, the demand will not be there, as people hate to change their lives and also don't want to "invest" in something that pays nothing, it's price is very stable within 10%~15% either way, and you can get tomorrow just as easy as today. It's like air, it'll always be there until we no longer need it so why worry about it.

Now, Silver .... digital will wipe out most of the usage of silver in the photography business in the future. Proof? Why did Kodak lose money this quarter even though the price of Silver is at a lower price per ounce? Competition from FUJI alone? If it isn't an important factor, why has Kodak invested millions in their own digital cameras? Just for the hell of it? No, they see the future coming as well. The requirements for silver in photography will create an unneeded supply.

PLAT AND PAL: Now you're talking! At least until the electric car can run in the colder climates properly and they won't need whatevers in the mufflers for air polution of a normal car.

Other base metals ( copper etc. ) will be needed in some fashion. The degree of need will be constructed by fiber optic cable etc. No copper required there, so that demand will fade also. It's a constantly changing situation from old to new.

I see that as the problem with gold. It may be considered money by the less developed nations but not in the majority of the industrialised world. And that's where the money is right now ... for now. If that's right, why is China purchasing the gold? Becuase they're long term thinkers. In the long run, we will destroy our "good" way of life because of our present strengths. Others will become jealous unless we share our wealth and perhaps try to take it, and the power it represents, away from us. That's when a new world order will become apparent. When 6 Billion people wise up and say that they will not accept US dollars in payment anymore. That's when China will rise to world leadership. Perhaps though, the governments of the day will then say that once again, possession of gold is contrary to the public good ( we need all we can get to buy oil! ) and so that you will have to change it for paper. Ah well, easy come ....


I know this is rambling and heresy but still maybe .....

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:19)
@I'm ready
I have been in this business for over 20 years, and I'm putting my money on the call side of the equation. I was waiting for 321-322 area but I don't think I'll wait any longer. 380 by end of Sept. ( sorry, John, I won't guarantee it )

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:20)
Bill Buckler
if you ever needed confirmartion ( gold political ) , here's a quote attributed to Greenspan ( Reuter )
"Greenspans said U.S. economic growth was slowing, inflation in 1997 was modest, and the falling gold price reflected a
lowering of inflation expectations, all of which meant a near term monetary policy tightening could be avoided."

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:21)
PRIMO: I tend to agree with you but not yet ready to declare it. I am encouraged that the Dow/Gold ratio has ignored the last several new Dow highs. That tells me that the market now perceives gold to be a better deal than the Dow. That could change, let's hope it does not.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:21)

Addict - Which is why I was so interested in Cherokee's statement
that I gave out my name and home address. Why did
he say it that way? That was the thing that stood out
glaringly in his post - The lead sentence and that part.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:26)
@the lab
John@hepcat. We love a good old fashioned catfight. How about you up
against Bobcat, winner takes all. And if there is a spillage, dont
worry, we will just stand back. Louie the Fly for ref. Come on hepcat
what do tou say?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:28)
Nomercy thanx

I believe that posters should register as FT still is free. How long will it last - can't say. I've been using gold-eagle for about 4 months and FT was free then. They are really very good; except for the sponsering of that Prague Gold Event.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:32)
Mach15......glad to jump in! I see two distinct levels to gold investing.

1. Futures, options and stocks. An investor can make money on these vehicles on the way up, or on the way down. The only thing that matters is momentum. An investor can go max risk and play hour-by-hour on the option market; or they can minimize the risk and go into a mutual fund. Of course, mutual funds do not make money for the investor is the prices go down. I see this first level as a medium to high risk "income producing" or "wealth building" entity.

2. Physical metal. The only way to make money buying gold coins is when the price goes up. And, since there is such a spread between buying and selling single coin lots, the small investor just can't get there from here. However, I believe I speak for most folks when I say that buying the physical stuff is good to put away for the day when everything has collapsed.

What am I doing? I've mentioned before that I jump into a gold mutual fund and wait for a 10% increase ( or more if the trend is that way ) . Then I jump out and collect 5% while waiting for the next time to jump in. This site and a couple others have helped me do pretty good with my timing. I have extensive experience as a gold trader ( tho I don't do it anymore ) and of all the markets, I know the gold and coin markets best. Of course, I'm now cooling my heels waiting for an up-tick just like everyone else around here. While prices are low, I buy more of my mutuals when I can, averaging the costs lower. Gold will be making a run within the next 6-12 months and my mutuals will run with it. Even if I churn the mutual once in 12 months, I'm still making 15% ( plus or minus a bit ) on my money over that 12 months. In anyone's book, that's the classic "slow and steady wins the race" scenario.

I am also buying American Eagles when I can. Why? For that day if ( not necessarily when ) the whole thing collapses and paper money won't work very well. I too get "poo-poo'd" by those that say owning gold is silly. I also have flood and earthquake insurance. I also catch a lot of crap for owning that as well. My in-laws recently got flooded out and lost everything. No insurance. What a mess.

And, on the odd chance I outlive any kind of financial collapse, I'll pass the gold coins to my son. Along with the property with flood and earthquake insurance.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:35)'re not a turner and burner are you?

Who Am I?
(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:38)
Catch me if you can
I work as a courier, also part-time weekends in an antique shop. I am out of rehab now, but I still have a problem with impotence. On the inside, I am a real person with a deep longing for truth. And I have friends I do not even know yet.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:39)
Please forgive my son who spends so much time here. It is a game for him.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:45)
Re: Yellowdog - 380 by end Sept. - I actually hope you are right! But if you are I can garentee that no-one ( Well except me hopefully ) will make money! All the traders on the floor are bearish. It's like $300 is a given and even then a rally will not come. The DOW looks sooo topy here and I feel that I can analysis it quite objectively. ( ie - Unlike some people I have not been predicting a crash everyday for the dow for the past 5 years ) . The CRB index looks like it has broken out to the upside today. Bonds also look toppy. It's a tough call on the out come here. Technically silver is so much more bearish then Gold yet it seems stuck in a trading range and has been creeping up. I would think that if Gold really is going down more then silver would be leading the way. Taking a guess here I think that if Gold and Silver haven't broken down in a meaningfull way within a week then it will be ( more ) safe to say the low is in. ie - "IF" they are going down it will happen sooner rather than later.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:46)

What's the one about rehab - the jogging one?
I keep telling them there to put in my best ( earliest ) columns, the one about the
220 pound stripper and the Heath candy bar contest, but I'll just have to post them
here if you want to read them.
Addict - It was a statement. There were four ( at least ) possibilities, yet Cherokee
knew. How? Not because he had access to any kind of posting information,
I'm not arguing that. And Cherokee never starts posts that way. It was like he
was taken aback a little bit, like it had to be reworked.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:50)
Obviously when I said that no-one would make money on a rally to 380 in Gold I meant none of the traders on the floor. I know that everyone in this Group would make money!

Also I am going ot be changing my E-Mail address from:>


I will still be monitoring both for a few more weeks before getting rid of

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:51)
That's all
The man is a _courier_! Six years out of med school, and he works as a courier! He lives in an apartment! He's a lunatic! I did not out you, my friend - you outed yourself, at 18:46!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:51)
Front: Thank you for a well thought out presentation. I have a question on China. Do you know how much gold they have in reserves, how much was purchased this year or last by China, and the percentage of gold in their reserves.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:52)
to all friends of hep-rat------

here are some pertinentent links with which hep-rat
can be dealt with.

he is using the university of north carolinas' ( unc ) computer
system to do his dirty deeds.

please refer to the board of governors home page to make reports:

and the home page to find other sources to report him to:

what he is doing will not be tolerated by the university system.
they await all OTHER complaints!

cherokee!; ) rider-of-the-ether for the betterment of all!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:53)
Macht15 - my two cents

I believe the futures markets, are like the prize fights.
The boxer's are the users and suppliers. The newspapers controlled by the governments are behind the promoters ( the commodity funds and others ) that fix the fights. The boxers are getting damn mad and bitting each others ears. SIMPLY; WE HAVE TO LET THE BOXERS SET THE PRICE, AND EAR BITING WILL STOP. In other words AU and AG will rise. The hell with inflation/deflation -they are long term smoke screens.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:53) continue on buying the physical stuff:

For whatever reason, the demand for small lots ( less than 10 ) of gold and silver eagles has been high for the last few months. Dunno why that is. However, my fellow coin dealers cannot keep a supply of them in house. And it's getting tougher for them to find inventory to sell at a decent price. If an investor wants ( say ) 100 gold eagles, then they go for about 2-3% over spot.

A little known fact: coin and bullion dealers do not make their money by buying their inventory from a market source ( like Monex or Blanchard ) . There might only be a $5 profit on each coin sold that way. Where the money is made is when a customer walks in the door and sells their bullion coins. My policy is to offer the real-time spot price. So, if spot is $325, then I will give you $325 for a gold eagle. Only then can I "create" a decent market to sell the coins for 4% over spot.

Well, guess what? Those little old ladies and frantic yuppies are not walking into the coin and bullion dealers and selling their inventory. The last coin show I was at sold out of gold eagles in the first 2 hours ( mostly to other dealers ) . There simply was zero inventory for the remainder of the weekend. The vast majority of the gold and silver eagles sold this year came from new production. Ditto for last year, I believe.

One more thing that kills most single-coin eagle buyers -- sales tax. Add the dealer mark up of 3% to a 6% sales tax, and bullion has to make one heck of a move for the buyer to make a profit when he decides to sell at spot. And there are many dealers who will only buy bullion a couple points back of spot. Rough numbers tell me that bullion needs to make a 10% move just for the buyer to break even! ( and if you buy mail order, add 10 bucks shipping and insurance! )

So, buy the physical stuff because it's heavy, cool, and will pay the rent when everything goes south. Buy ( or put ) the stocks and options if you want to increase your net worth.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:56)
Macht15 - my two cents

I believe the futures markets, are like the prize fights.
The boxer's are the users and suppliers. The newspapers
controlled by the governments are behind the promoters
( the commodity funds and others ) that fix the fights. The
boxers are getting damn mad and bitting each others ears.
BITING WILL STOP. In other words AU and AG will rise.
The hell with inflation/deflation -they are long term
smoke screens.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:57)
Yes I am. Have you gained 'g' tolerance the same way?


(Wed Jul 23 1997 18:59)
Time to Buy gold
Investor's Digest, respected Carlyle Dunbar, in the July 18th edition, reccommends purchasing gold and gold mining shares. "It's starting to look like a blowoff time in the market. Leading stock groups are climbing like rockets. That's characteristic of the late stages of a bull market. The rate of gain gets steeper and steeper --and then the market stalls and spins out. So far, though, there is no indication the market rocket has burned all its fuel. But you get the feeling momentum rather than real propellant is carrying the price indexes higher. He goes on to quote, Dow Theory Letter, great analyst Richard Russell, saysing gold may be warning us of deflation......"conclusion" if world deflation is our future, Treasury bonds yielding the current over-seven per cent may well be the place to be; and if world deflation does occur, what industr will manage nicely in the situation? Gold mining.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:06)
The financial boat is so believed and loaded to one side that financial nirvana must be maintained on a daily basis or a few 100 bill go into gold and the Centrals can sell all they have to no avail. Remember keeping gold down means preventing investment demand into this small market from the endless buckets of paper that have been created over the last 20 years. Centrals have 300 billion, big deal, that is not even a threat if even one little thing goes wrong with the financial bubble. Further, most CBs arent selling only the Westies ( who have shot their wad ) who are under the US influence and conern over world reserve currency status. I disagree that the gold cooperation will continue as the financial euphoria has reached unsustainable levels which can only dissappoint. A couple a billionaires can take out US supplies/ do you really think other countries who resent US dominance will go along with this game forever. Any prick to the financial bubble and even a minute leakage of money to gold wil cause it to go skyward. Nomercy's analysis assumes 100 % forever cooperation and financial nirvana forever in a world where the rich/poor disparity is reaching historical highs and that there are no egos and all countries agree forever to western CB policy. GOOD LUCK DREAM ON! When US credit cards slow down less buying from China and Japan / WHY SHOULD THEY COOPERATE to maintain US reserve status? ANS THEY WONT!!!!

Next US recession which is obvious ( it will never be reported in the press ) and bye bye!!!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:08)
RJ, Addicted, Scotty, Jack, Donald and nomercy. I would like to commend you all for outstanding post. They were informative, honest, and useful. Most of all, they attacked no one for their differences in opinions.

Hepcat, great information. In between the personal attacks, it was something I can use to make an informed investment decision. How about trying a single post without using someones else opinion as leverage for your ( usually intellegent ) thoughts.

Cherokee, sorry, I have to give you a zero. I'm not personally attacking you, but your post had no useful information to help the investing-smartly challenged ( me ) make an informed decision. I have read your post in the past. They ,too, have been brilliant. I would like to see them again.

Thanks again for your honesty ( and respect )


(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:13)
here is the cdc phone # 404-639-3311

i made my post AFTER hep-rat posted his address.

time to turn the burners on HIGH!

anytime anybody gets close to the truth, he begins
posturing the cdc as his armor. let's see how the
cdc likes him using their agency for making threats and
coercive statements with them ( cdc ) as his personal hit-men.

cherokee!; ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) don't-worry, be-happy! ( john-boy, now they know, and
it's time to pay the piper! ) too bad you did not use your own system,
unc is most unhappy. wait till they hear from ALL you FRIENDS.
how about it kitco-ites? spend a moment and send some e-mail
to show your support of the rat-man. unc awaits MORE complaints
from the apartment dweller.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:15)
According to this self-made billionaire, markets exaggerate in both directions, bust or boom. And that's the territory we're in presently. The "prevailing bias" in gold is down as is "the underlying trend" is also down whilst the opposite occurs with the Dow, wherein the "prevailing bias" is up and the "underlying trend" is up...
When a trend is reinforced, it accelerates. The underlying trend becomes increasingly influenced by stock prices and the rise in stock prices becomes increasingly dependent on the prevailing bias, so both the underlying trend and the prevailing bias become increasingly vulnerable."
Is that why Soros is making his move? or is he?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:19)
to Kitco
Machf15: You're welcome. BTW, I burnt some kerosene for the government for a while also. But my real love is big radials - from "thrust you can trust" to "power by the hour". The "rattlies" reckon: "Jets are for kids" !!

I'm so ashamed of myself, Cherokee,
(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:20)
and, perhaps like you, I wish him no ill, but we must repel the intruder, mustn't we?

All you ever wanted to know about him, in his own words, no less ( articles 3,5,6,7, and 13 are perhaps the most humiliating to our fellow "investor" ) :

(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:21)

I'm afraid I'm not aware of the percentages as they were not given to me from my sources in Dubai and London. I was informed from the sources that China was the buyer however, ( I imagine, due to privacy of trading needs ) , the amounts of the sales were not given. The peoples in Dubai and London would be considered commercials with one having a seat in London.


(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:24)
futures in WATER not GOLD

(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:25)

Amazing what an 18 month bear market in gold will do to a fellows perceptions. A few points on the otherside.

1. Since governments have been failing at all sorts of things for as long as they have been in existence, why should they stop failing now? What about the government of Thailand which just a few weeks back announced that 'no way would they let the speculators force down the value of their currency'. Is the argument that the U.S. government has such power that it will win regardless of market forces? Why do they now possess such power when at other times in history, armed with the same power they were unable to do a damn thing? How about the government of Japan. Here was a government with sweeping power, control of gigantic amounts of pension money, in a society known for consensus, and it has taken them 8 years to turn the tide of damage caused by a speculative financial bubble. For those who were stock holders at the top, they are still a double away from breaking even. The financial asset bubble which we are currently enjoying will burst at some point. Just like every one which has ever occured. Why? Quite simply because the gross value represented by the share prices is far greater than the discounted value of the money that they could possibly throw off. One of two things will happen to correct this imbalance. Either the share prices will decline, or the prices of other assets in the society will rise to meet them. As for those who see owning stocks and playing the game as easy money, maybe they are correc, although I firmly believe the end will occur with devastating speed trapping many of those who 'know' what they are doing. This however has nothing to do with investing. Investing has to do with value and risk, and making bets which have potentially large payoffs with attendant low risk. There is nothing about the current equity environment that could be classified as 'low risk', and there are many individual equities of the 'blue-chip' variety that could be characterized as having 'enormous risk'.

The idea that silver is a dead commodity because of digital photography is just wrong. Demand for silver from the photographic industry is rising not falling. Kodak's problem has been a price war with Fuji and with cheap unbranded film. The volume of film sold, and hence the silver consumption is rising. For every American that chucks his 35mm camera in favor of a digital camera at $500 and a $1000 monitor that everyone can gather around at Christmas, there will be a hundred Asians who will be buying disposable cameras for $5 bucks. The great puzzle that people can not understand is how can silver stocks continue to decline while the price is going down. The reason is that the consumers who should notice this phenomenon and bid up the price of the remaining inventories are stupid. Yes, stupid, its that simple. I've brought this up before but I will do so again. In early 1994 zinc inventories reached something like 1.4 Million Tonnes. They declined by something on the order of 40% over the next two years due to rising demand. At the same time the price of zinc fell. Same story. The consumers were unwilling to bid for inventories even as they were falling. Finally when the inventories reached a low enough level, some funds ( Soros rumored ) stepped to the plate and bought. Zinc prices are now up 70% from the lows and the Chinese are rumored to be the squeezes. BTW: This is in dollar terms. In DM terms I believe the rise is now greater than 100%. But not to worry, there will never be inflation in Germany, because they like every other government will simply choose not to count the things that are going up in price.

I bought gold at $320 because I thought the risk was minimal. I still believe that to be the case. The only risk to gold falling more than say 10% from here is massive selling by G7 central banks. Oddly enough this just might be tremendously bullish as investors will reason that they can buy an asset at a firesale price. In any event, the political fallout behind liquidating gold reserves might be more than the governments are willing to risk given the fairly minimal value the sale would generate with respect to thier balance sheets. Absent this kind of selling, the downside risk is small. Everyday we go nowhere, the fundamentals get just a little bit better, as another mine is forced to close, and another forward hedge runs out. Time is on my side.

Finally, having been here at Kitco quite awhile, I am surprised that you can not see the change that has occured here with respect to the number of bulls and bears, and the legitimacy which has been bestowed to the bear case in general. To my eyes this is classic capitulation. The fundamentals over the last year have improved greatly by dint of a large price change, and yet at the point where logic would dictate that the bull case is much stronger, instead we see the bear case being embraced by more and more.

Mind you I am not complaining about the state of affairs in this or any other market. If markets behaved more rationally and governments stayed largely away from price setting mechanisms the efficient market crowd would be a lot closer to the mark. I hope that the current state of insanity remains with us for a very long time so that I may continue to extract a living from misconceptions of others.

As noted contributor has remarked TTFN.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:31)
Larryn @ Schwab

Larryn: ( 16:29 ) C. Schwab has a global branch that trade Canadian stocks, you can get most all Canadian stock quotes in each of the two $ terms. You have to call C.S. for the telephone number and hours of operation. Get other pertinate info from guy answering at global branch.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:33)
Greenspan - Consumers Debt
Panda this one is for your don't worry be happy collection, ( people are using their homes for collateral ( stocks? ) ..he doesn't see a problem....????
Greenspan: ``We nonetheless do see ... some fairly pronounced evidence of delinquencies showing up in credit cards. The new
phenomenon is the home equity loans which are increasingly being used as a consolidating consumer credit vehicle, and a lot of
this paper is fairly highly leveraged against the value of the home ... But what clearly is occurring is a general movement up in
certain selective areas of the consumer credit markets.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:36)

This statement is not surprising. I believe that the answer to many of the governments activities can be traced to a Fed research paper of a few years ago which made a big thing about inflationary expectations. The take home message was that if you could get people to 'believe' that there would be no future inflation then in fact there would be less. The idea being that inflationary actions such inventory building and wage settlements with built in inflation kickers would be discouraged and would feedback to lower inflation. It appears that the Fed has embraced this program even if it means flat our deceit like Mr. Greenspan has done. He knows damn well the price of gold has not been falling because of inflation or the purported lack there of.

I'm going to do a little searching over at the Fed's sight to see if I can dig up the paper. When I get a hold of it I will post it.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:36)
catchup ketchup
GENE: ( 14:41 ) You are correct - history WILL repeat itself. Alan Greenspan IS a brave man, and the dike IS ready to burst. Re Albert Camus - Sisyphus's stone is ready to roll back!!! FRONT: Stop being so heredical. ARCHIMEDES: You've got it screwed up. Very confuscing!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:39)
I am such a wit and such a great trader and such a great prognosticator that I live in apartment A...not B but A...Har har har har har har

(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:44)
NOMERCY: Follow this consumer debt thread. I hear all the guys at work brag about how much they are making in stocks but I have no money to play. Someone suggests a homequity loan and I take the bait. I borrow the money and the bank packages the paper with others and sells it to FNMA, a taxpayer backed outfit. So now you have Nomercy, the taxpayer, stuck for the tab when this market crashes. When this thing un-winds it has got to end very badly.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:44)
Thanks D.A.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:46)
NOMERCY: Follow this consumer debt thread. I hear all the guys at work brag about how much they are making in stocks but I have no money to play. Someone suggests a homequity loan and I take the bait. I borrow the money and the bank packages the paper with others and sells it to FNMA, a taxpayer backed outfit. So now you have Nomercy, the taxpayer, stuck for the tab when this market crashes. When this thing un-winds it has got to end very badly.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:48)
If we consider that there appears to be a near non-existent monetary discipline in the West, is it still possible to experience deflation in the classical sense? We experienced stagflation during the Carter years, when there still remained a modicum of discipline. If we have completely unbridled monetary risk which creates cascading currency devaluations will the collapse of confidence exist simultaneously with deflation? I guess my question is centered on whether deflation is always demand and supply driven, or can it be altered by destroying the balance of equilibrium by hyper-inflating world currencies?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:52)
D.A. I remember that paper. I think it came out of the Minneapolis branch. ( 1988? )

(Wed Jul 23 1997 19:59)

Trader-Analyst sees a rising tops pattern on the DOW - and believes there will be some intermittent corrections before reaching an ultimate DOW goal of 15,000:

disappointed reader
(Wed Jul 23 1997 20:02)
This used to be an informative and worthwhile site.
If the level of conversation here generally reflects
the attitude and disposition of goldbugs, it's no wonder
gold is behaving as a poor investment. And, it doesn't
say much for Kitco to permit it to continue. It certainly
isn't positive advertisement to continue to permit individuals
like john ( hepcat ) to ruin the site.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 20:08)
PNEUMA: There are two kinds of inflation. Monetary inflation, the printing of money and: credit inflation the creation of credit. The hyperinflations of Germany, Austria, Indonesia, Bolivia, Brazil, Argentina and more were caused primarily by printing excess paper money. The inflation that began in the U.S. in ( my opinion ) 1933 was a credit inflation. Deflation is an INVOLUNTARY phenomenon. It is caused by the destruction of credit, by bankruptcy, or the voluntary paydown of debt through fear of the borrower, or by reluctance of the lender to continue lending. Government can do little to force people to borrow or to lend. There is no way for government to stop it. Printing money will prevent a deflation.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 20:08)
Lou Dobbs, on CNN Moneyline last night, had two guests, can't recall their names, I believe one was from Traveler's Mutual and the other a VP with ML. Dobbs ( the official Dow cheerleader ) asked the Traveler's exec. who felt that stocks are overvalued and that Greenspan erred now as he did a few months ago, when he raised rates. What do you reccommend now??? "Sell" and take some profits; And if it goes higher? "Sell some more". Lou's astonished reaction was indescribable! obviously it wasn't the answer he was seeking.
It looks to me that "they" are in no-win situation. Personally I believe that Greenspan wanted to nip it in the bud in December '96 and was overuled by Rubin & Co.
They are playing 'russian roulette' with millions of people lives as they are influenced by a few power brokers, who want the game to continue at the expense of the future.
The goldbugs have taken a beating recently, but we all know that a good gold play in a few months is worth the wait!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 20:15)
PNEUMA-OOPS: I left out a key word. It should read "Printing money will NOT prevent a deflation.

Sorry about that.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 20:18)
Donald: A very correct and succinct definition which reminds me of "economics in one lesson". Some proof that your "guess" on when credit inflation began is correct can be found in this graphic:
Prices at the producer level were in a large trading range after the subsidence of New World gold inflation in the 18th century UNTIL FDR hit the scene in 1933. Our current "disinflation" barely shows even as a pause in the relentless progress of this series.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 20:19)
US Dollar vs Yen
Interesting article re: currency devaluations occurring in Asia, which augurs well for Gold
Economists and officials say the system of US dollar-dominated
exchange rates in the region may come to an end, and the process is
likely to be hastened with the freeing of Japan's foreign exchange
controls from next April.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 20:27)
Sovereignty and Money: Past, Present and Future
Glyn Davies, Professor Emeritus of Economics, University of Wales, ( UK ) , paints fascinating chronicle of moneys evolution from Jesus to Dostoevsky. Engrossing read of a great scholar:

(Wed Jul 23 1997 20:27)
Bad Crowd
Whoever entered the following note deserves no respect from anyone.

"The man is a _courier_! Six years out of med school, and he works as a courier! He lives in an apartment! He's a lunatic! I did not out you, my friend - you outed yourself, at 18:46!"

Too many of the regulars on this site act like catty teenage girls. Also,
few of us care to hear inane comments about details of your mundane daily activities.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 20:28)
to D.A.


Thank you for your excellent post regarding my ramblings. I note many things that you have mentionned that I truely had not noted. I would, if you don't mind, like to examine them further.

The country problems which you note, Thailand as one example, are truely under seige. My gut feeling is that the problem stems, at least to some extent, from the strength of the US dollar and it's use as the world-wide trading vehicle. I don't want it to look like I'm visiting money 101, as I respect your opinions too much, however, do you see some of the problems in the far east ( Japan / Thailand etc. ) as it possibly being relying too much on the US dollar to recoup past loses and as it ( US$ ) becomes stronger, their own currencies become less valuable too the speculators who wish to see turmoil in order to make a profit and cause the downfalls?

In regards to the silver, I too have noted the degree of competition between Kodak and FUJI in the market place. We bought my daughter a roll of film the other day and for the same film, Kodak was twice the price of the FUJI. Unbelievable! My timeframe though was of quite a longer variety. I have agreed with Milhouse, and now you, that in the short term ( 1~2 years ) the public will benefit through lower prices, but that will eventually hit the Kodak stock price in a hurtful manner. I also feel though that Silver is at least mentally tied to Gold and as such, will range trade. That to me then becomes tradable the same as gold, within a band of 10~15% up then down then up etc. with me gaining the minimum of 5% per move just through precious metal mutual funds movement. There seems to just be soooo much of it available though to convince me of any shortages near term. ( That'a just a gut feeling! )

The blue chips indeed are exceedingly great risks and I heartily agree are no longer considered "Low Risk". Even the venerable G.E., once the home for widows and orphans, has shown volatility beyond others. It is true there seem to be no longer any "safe/secure/low risk" areas available but how does one proceed? Volatility causes areas of profit. Until the volatility of the Gold area becomes apparent, I must play in other areas such as Technologies, and hope the roof doesn't collapse before I complete my profit goals. I have found that if I had been as wise with my Energy fund over the last months rather than thinking like a Gold-Bull, I would have increased my profits noteably. ( Please don't take this as siding with "John", I'm not, but it is my reality, day to day, over the last months and as a professional, that external point of view is absolutely necessary ) . Your 320 price seems wise to me. Also wise to me is the current pricing of the metal mutual funds. They have reached marvellous prices and I have increased my holdings to 20% of resources. Normally, I would have thrown 80~100% of available monies, ( as I have explained before, I am willing to take the risks to get the larger profits and do not normally believe in diversification in mutual funds ) , but am awaiting confirmation of the 326 area. I thought we had it Friday/Monday but it was lost over over the last two days, so have lowered my exposure and am now into blue chip banks etc. Of course, I along with you hope for greater volatility in the metals since I can get such a larger bang per penny move at their presently lower levels than a higher bleu chip mutual fund after a 25% gain lately but there really is no other game if one is awaiting volatility and yet not wanting to gamble. Profits are profits.

Thank you for that information concerning ZINC. I hadn't been folowing it since those plays are mainly available to me only in equity stocks within the equity mutual funds ( those containing INCO etc. ) .

Oddly, 10~15% doesn't sound like much when one considers the potential that the DOW and NASDAQ have achieved. However, in golds present circumstance, that's a movement from 325 of from 276.25 to 373.75 ... I would think that that just about covers any movements expected from any contributor on this site. A low of 276 to a high of 375 would be extraordinary to everyone I'm sure, but from here right now, it's only 15% +- . That's not really enough volatility to make one rich especially with all the resistance that lies both above and below this 325 price zone and also in that I can't short mutual funds. I'm not disagreeing, just trying to look at it from a practical matter of investing for the biggest bang for my penny move. Thank you for the discussion. And thanks for the nice TTFN ending. Appreciated....


(Wed Jul 23 1997 20:32)
Aussie's news
Forget their rhetoric about inflation, its
and their currency will take another beating.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 20:38)
AUROPHILE: That is a very nice chart. I love the long term stuff. You can see the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, you can even spot the Wage and Price controls of WWII. Several weeks ago we were talking about "who won the Cold War". Your chart shows, starting 1950, the price we paid, or are still paying. If indeed we won, it didn't come cheap. I hope history proves we did the right thing.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 20:49)
To Larryn, My broker on Wall Street trades Canadian Stocks for me. The quotes are in Canadian dollars. I don't know if its standard but sometimes there is a small extra charge. I've bought stocks on the Toronto and the Montreal exchange--all gold stocks. Good trading.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 20:59)
of the BS
Crapcat, You are wrong!!!

Lets analyze for a moment:

Gold goes to $250, mines all over the world began to shut down. It becomes to expensive to extract the ( thought to be ) worthless yellow metal.
Supplies start drying up.
Industries cannot produce products. After awhile the jewerly stores are empty.
The wifes and girlfriends ( and in some cases mistresses ) of wealthy ( on paper ) Wall Street speculators needing their weekly fix, rush out to their favorite jeweley store to splurge.
When they reach their destination they are turned away by the out of business sign.
They make it back home all depressed and rush to the medicine cabinet to locate the prozac.
When the rich ( on paper ) gentlemen return home that evening, they are greeted with sobs,crying, and tales about all the jewelery store closures.
The gentlemen proceed to tell the ladies that all gold is worthless and not a desirable commodity by according to the market.
The ladies proceed to tell them they are self concerned and heartless and they cannot believe the men could let such a thing happen.
The ladies show the gentlemen to the couch and there will no whoopy until the matter is resolved.
The next day there panic on Wall Street. Men rush out and sell stocks in order to raise the cash to buy gold.
The price of gold begins to rise.
The mines go back into production. It again is profitable to produce the now desirable yellow metal.
There is enough gold on the market.
Jewelers are back in business.
There is peace once again in the home.

See, Gold does have value!!!!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:03)

Thanks for posting the links to my columns. They brought back a lot of
fond memories. I'm not sure how they would be "humiliating" to me.
They were written for a college-age crowd ( this was a school newspaper )
and I was invited to contribute by the editor. He ( and the following year,
she ) didn't seem too humiliated with them. The North Carolina Press
Association didn't award them "Most Humiliating Columns in a Daily Publication"
If you believe I was a courier based on the Wendover column, then
I guess you would also have to believe I was driving at 120 mph without
headlights across the Nevada desert transporting dice with inducible
ferromagneticity. In other words, the column drifted quite a bit into the realm of
fiction, although many of them are fact-based - I trust you can make the
distinction. The CDC is in Atlanta. Atlanta is in Georgia. For me to commute
every day from Durham to Atlanta would take six hours each way. I'm not
sure how much you want to push this idea that I live in an apartment.
Gosh, using that logic, you could say I lived in a dormitory, since I did live
in a dormitory when I was going to college. Also, I hope you continue to
belittle me based on selective reporting of what you find on the net. Your next search would be on Medline, I assume.. I don't see how it helps you, because I
have said all along that I am besting you. So to say you are getting
beat by a courier who lives in an apartment six years after graduation
from medical school is to make your sides collective intelligence really

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:03)
@Reality-How many ways silver is used contest.
DA, As you probably already know silver is used in the manufacture of photovoltaic cells. An increasing number of medications contain silver or silver compounds. Silver is used by all the airlines to keep drinking water on the planes from multiplying bacteria. Every time you take a drink of airline water you drink a small amount of pure silver. The Brita water filter also uses silver.

Gold may be the element used in the next generation of computer chips. It can handle higher speeds at less heat than silicon. Only a very thin wafer per chip is needed--very economical. Because of its unique cellular structure gold may have a strong future in electronics. DA I enjoy reading your posts.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:07)
Donald: Before the advent of the Idiot ( which I have always meant in the Dostoyevskyan sense ) late last year, I used to post quite a bit on gold and the long economic waves and history. I sense recently the coming together once more, in the face of "static" and disruptions, of an excellent group of posters. Amongst that group I particularly value your contributions.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:10)
John Hepcat, I'm telling you this because I love you: You should get things right with your soul real soon. Be careful. Also, I think gold has an intrinsic value that you have missed. Tired's comments should be taken seriously.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:12)
Robert Pringle, Head of World Gold Council strongly criticizes Aussie Central Bank ( RBA ) FOLLY in sale of 2/3s of its gold. Following RBA sale, Aussie Gold Reserves lose $3 billion!!!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:13)
I enjoy this page, because a lot of the people share thought provoking Concepts and Ideas.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:21)

I am comforted by the fact that I was "wrong" on this site for the last year.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:24)

Aurophile - Please, tell us more stories of how it is inevitable that gold
is going to $365.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:25)
Hep: You've just been lucky.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:31)

P.B. - I'd rather be lucky than Aurophile, believe me. My future is
brighter because of it.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:32)
Front.......whew! Blew my doors off with your essay! Good job!

Frankly, I had never thought of your China scenario before. It seems that with everyone focused in on Hong Kong, the other 99.999% of China is going "unwatched."

Goes back to a basic fundamental: the one thing that has lasted through the centuries is gold and silver. There were times that gold was not "popular." Perhaps bartering was the "in thing" during those times. ( My apologies that I don't have any hard historical data to post at this time. )

Of course, it would be ironic if China leads a new world order by stockpiling gold. They were the ones who invented paper money in the first place!!

Anyone know of studies that tracked "what happened" after China started issuing their first paper? Was there a subsequent failure or reordering?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:34)
To all......especially those who have friends who think gold is the silliest thing ever.

I think that is just a GenX viewpoint. In the last three years, I had the opportunity to visit just over 100 different countries. I can assure everyone that gold and silver are still big deals in many parts of the world - to include China.

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and all the Middle East have outdoor shops ( called Sukes ) where they sell all kinds of gold. Gold bars, coins, and of course 22 and 24 karat jewelry. The women buy them and wear them under their robes. They always wear their gold as to be prepared for the day they may get thrown into the streets by their husband ( ie, divorced ) . If that happens, they are allowed to keep their material possessions. ( Not much of that happens today, but the "tradition" goes back to the Bedouin days. )

Ditto with gold shops in Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, etc. Jewelery is sold very close to the spot price of gold. Yes indeedy fellow goldbugs and lurkers, there is still a strong GRASS ROOTS level demand for gold and silver. It would seem that the current market and heavy hitters has deluded that demand somewhat.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:34)
Hep: It's a mistake to revel in another's misfortune. I am sorry your father used to promise things to you that didn't come true, and that your faith was damaged, but it shows a lack of understanding and compassion to systematically destroy the faith of others.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:36)
Machf15.......yes, I've gloc'd a couple times today with some of these posts. Staffing it right now but just finished 3yr rpi1 on some high viz stuff at kedw.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:39)
of the BS
Yes, Crapcat. But every cowboy will eventually sing "I'm headed for the last roundup" before their put to pasture!!!!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:40)
Coins for IRA account
To all: I would be interested in any info or links to firms that can administer an IRA funded with American Gold Eagles. Thanks.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:42)

P.B. - Sorry, that must have been you that posted the
"My father promised me things that didn't come true."
That post was made after I signed off for the night.
As for the rest of your comment, I forgot what you said, and
I'm not going to open another window to find out,
but rest assured we have been over this ground before,
and if you want entertainment, you're going to have to step
aside and let someone else harass me.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:47)
1. Buy low sell high.
2. When everyone wants it - the price is too high.
3. Explain to me the difference between DOW 5000 and DOW 8000. Improved productivity? Higher earnings? Higher dividents? You simply pay higher prices for stocks because of demand! Millions of sheep want stocks because of publicity! Average investor knows nothing about companies he invests in. Products, procesess, strategies, customers? Who cares, they buy because their friends buy, because the media talks about 25% returns. Do you want to invest in Microsoft or Intel? Why? What do you know about them? P/E 19 great you will break even in 19 years. Unless another greedy fool will pay you even more for your share. Do your friend a favor and tell her to put her money in a shoebox in her closet. This is a VERY dangerous market.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:47)
Hep: I'm not sure what you're talking about... Do you mean that you deny that you made the post in which you said that you wanted to be a doctor because it guaranteed you a source of income?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:55)
Down Under
Sorry about my last 2 postings folks, I really only came here because of the horrific fall in gold-prices following our Reserve Banks' sale of gold. I am left with a lot of gold shares that are worth a lot less than they used to be. I am trying to get some idea what to expect.......because gold has become a four letter world amongst Australian investors lately. People remain pessimistic and if Wall St has any serious correction my shares will be worth even less. The Australian market seems to go to bed with pneumonia if Wall St sneezes, but does not follow it up with the rallies. I'm afraid I lost the plot a little with one of the other posters here.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:56)
John Meissner
of 4310 American Drive, Apt. A, Durham, NC 27705, phone number: 919-382-7423.
Be very careful when you insult someone. Sometime you may run into someone who will want to get even with you. There are guys out there who are much tougher then you. Just a friendly tip.
Good luck.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 21:59)

Lighten up, Francis.

PB - Absolutely, it came after my last post of the evening. Bart can
confirm it if you need further proof. Get serious. Did you really think
after all of that crowing I was suddenly going to become weepy?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:01)
Hep: Please accept my apologies. But understand that I certainly did not post it, nor it is my intention to derive entertainment from you.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:04)

Zeke Whoever - As per usual, Kitco regulars are a liitle late coming to the
party and a little too early in dispensing the doomsday advice. The current market is not particularly dangerous. You're calling a market dangerous one day
after Greenspan gives it his blessing? Do your friend a favor and keep quiet.
We were hearing this talk from everyone at 7000. I am not saying this market
is not going to crash, I'm just saying it's not going to crash within the next
72 hours.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:08)

Gosh, MaryTheresa, seems like you sidetracked yourself.
Why didn't you just say what you wanted from the beginning,
instead of dispensing prescriptions?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:09)
@ Valley
Hey Dribble-cat.... You are obviously lonely and need attention!!!It's too bad you couldn't carry on an intelligent conversation. I think the only job you have, is to phone home for more money!!!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:10)
@ Valley
Hey Dribble-cat.... You are obviously lonely and need attention!!!It's too bad you couldn't carry on an intelligent conversation. I think the only job you have, is to phone home for more money!!!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:12)
I did not say the market will crash in 72 hours. I feel that people who ask others "Where should I put my money?" should not be in stocks.
Nobody should invest in something they know little about. I think that you will agree that the average investor knows very little about the risks of stocks.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:12)
Archimedes: You are correct, future is in water. Directly related to CA,NM,&AZ. Imperial Valley has the real gold.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:12)

Hey M. Graves - Is that the best you can do?
You probably never hit the pinata when you were a kid, did you?
Probably even after they took the blindfold off...

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:16)
Hep: At the risk of being accused of being an idiot, perhaps you could tell me why you are so angry all the time?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:18)
Gene ( 14:41 ) : That was a remarkably good post with the quote from Camus. In essence, it is not a good idea to swap the ephemeral for the solid. He who does, does so at his own peril. ......The post was also a breath of fresh air. gasp!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:19)

I appreciate all the advice about getting my house in order,
not purchasing any LP's, etc., but I'm a little confused as to
who exactly is going to go postal on me. I have insulted people
who don't even have names. Most of the time I am yelling at
comic book characters. It is very clear in Bart's policy that no
editorial control is exerted, so what exactly makes everybody
think that this is a "Gold is Eternally Good" Club? Your position
is currently not supported by the numbers or the numbers of
posters, and if we could accordian down everyone posting under
multiple handles, there would be even fewer on your side.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:22)
gold on gold
Dr. John Meissner:

Now that you've outted yourself under the press of events, why don't you also admit whence your gold expertise arises and invite the other John to the site? At least he has a professional perspective.

You have to admit that my diagnosis of your condition was correct. Of course my contacts at DU were able to confirm.

Finally, doesn't the Sugarloaf ( or Iowa ) writers conference have a site which would help you more?

My best to your long-suffering father...

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:22)
of the BS
Hey everybody!!!! In between all the serious postings and the expected future profits in the worthless yellow metal, I'm enjoying all the comic relief from Mister Crapcat!!!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:25)

And very few people know about the risks of investing in gold, or enumerate
the risks of driving a car everytime they start it up in the morning. What, do
you want people who are planning to invest in the stock market to watch
footage of Hiroshima or Sudan refugee camps? Zeke, your last post makes
you out to be more reasonable than I initially pegged you for, and I don't
want to start an argument. But if I had to choose my risk, I would choose the
stock market over gold for the next month. As a long term investment, if
you're so concerned about the risk, buy tax-free bonds.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:25)
Hep: Who said that this is a "Gold is Eternally Good" club? I happen to think gold has some positive virtues, but that is simply my own opinion, much as your opinion is your own. As far as talking to comic book characters goes, you have only yourself to answer for that.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:27)
M.Graves: You should kill the ground hogs NOW....

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:32)

Aurophile: DU is Ducks Unlimited, so no points there.
Who is the other John? ( Also going to have to give you no points for that )
Why must you conjure up someone who is your equal to admit you
were bettered? Aurophile, a German polka band was more qualified than
you to tell where gold was going last year. Your a smart guy, and you
were wrong. I'm an average intelligence guy with no interest in what you
do, and I was right. That's life.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:32)
Fuel Cells
Front - Your 18:17 was on target. Regarding electric cars of the future: Current battery technology is not practical for use in electric cars. Existing electric cars can only drive about 100 miles before needing a recharge. Where is the electricity going to come from to charge these batteries? Primarily from fossil fuel power plants. There is an additional problem of highly corrosive and toxic chemicals within the batteries. When ever there is a serious car accident, first call the paramedics, then call the hazardous materials unit.

Enter the fuel cell. This is actually old technology that is finally becoming cheap enough to be considered viable. Fuel cells are what powered the Apollo missions to the moon, and are currently what powers the space shuttle in orbit. Remember the mission they had to cut short a few months ago? The reason was a malfunctioning fuel cell. This was only one of three cells, but NASA loves redundancy.

A fuel cell is an ingeniously simple device. It is actually a chemical electricity generator. By bringing hydrogen and oxygen together with a catalyst, a chemical reaction takes place that produces electricity. The key to this reaction is the catalyst. You guessed it, platinum. Again our magic metal shines again, not with aesthetic beauty, but with its wonderful catalytic properties. Only platinum has the right stuff to make the fuel cell viable. Even palladium will not suffice. Think of it, by using the most abundant substance in the universe - hydrogen - and oxygen from the air around us, electricity can be generated. The truly beautiful thing, is that the only waste product from the chemical reaction is water. You could drink the emissions from a fuel cell car.

Mercedes built the worlds first fuel cell car in 1995, and General Motors built their version in 1996. These prototypes cost about 100K now but the industry expects to be able to produce a 40K fuel cell car within five years. Prices will continue to drop as production speeds up. It is actually cheaper, is some cases, to install a fuel cell array rather than run power lines to a new facility such as a post office or school.

Now for the kicker: The amount of platinum required in a fuel cell car will be 5 - 10 times as much as is used in a catalytic converter. Fuel cell platinum will have to be replenished from time to time creating an ongoing demand of platinum. Our future holds the prospect of greater and greater platinum demands, so dont sell the stuff yet. It could well replace gold, Lord knows it has a hell of a lot more uses.

EB - limicolous ( l-mke-les ) adjective: Living in mud

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:36)
though,gained in metal price,still lost in forex ground.In the way,i think the best method is buy more, this moments.
the asia financial ministers going to have the close door meeting tomorrow at SHANGHAI,CHINA.very concern abt the financial around asia,small g 7 meet!
TERIMA KASIH! ( thank you! )

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:39)
Cherokee: Oh! You republican you. Is Cherokee your real name?... Or is it Hoover by any chance?... Striking hepcat from the dark and back alley... So courageous of you. I love it.
Keep it up. Continue investigating hepcat. Shut him out. You are just wonderful!
Just give hepcat another day or two.... Please. He has some points ( I think ) . Too bad you are going to shut him out on technicalities. Oh! Well!. You have to do what you were born to do: as a good american indian cherokee, you have to sell the white fellow to the white government, and then you will hide again behind your wonderful cryptic and pseudo-poetic language.
But I guess we will have to keep your flux on this board.
Queens looks good tonight. Nothing bad here. Everything is fine. Crime, despair and poverty is gone. Therefore lets focus our intellect and energy on trying to report hepcat to our government and to shut him out for good. He is sooo very dangerous, isn't he?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:39)
In the interests of harmony, and since he seems either to be unaware of my posts or deliberately blocking them out, does anyone have any idea why my most esteemed colleague Hepcat spends so much energy pouring salt on the wounds of those who haven't been as lucky as him? It seems like a strange enterprise to me.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:41)
Dr. Meissner: Denial will get you nowhere. Insist to yourself ( this is hopeless, folks ) that you must always take your medicine and live a healthy life. I'm such an optimist that I believe that schizophrenics CAN be productive, however much pain and distress they cause those around them. Put those writing talents to work. I'll be at an agents' conference in LA next month if you would like to pursue that avenue. Get a life!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:43)
Hi JIN! Thank you for the latest news in your area....I'm sure my brother is making a killing in Bangkok tonight...his own! hahaha...Take care Jin,it's late and I'm going to sleep...HAPPY TRADING.....Goodnight all!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:45)
I am capable of defending myself you cretin.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:48)
What is your current investment strategy and allocation?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:52)
of the BS
PB - How do we all know crapcat is successful. Has anyone seen his wallet or bank account. Anyone one can get into this forum and blow smoke up everyones you know what!!!!!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:53)
Why don't you conduct a proctological exam on yourself!!!!!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:54)
Front, incidental, Kodak had a good value at Sams club, price equal to Fuji. New film speed rated 800 but supposed to self adjust to light conditions. Am trying it out this week, it will sell well if it performs well. Maybe their marketing woke up and smelled the coffee.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:56)

PB - Give me a chance. I'm juggling about 10 balls in the air at
this time, and yours is the least interesting. You seem like a nice
guy about a half a step slow. My talking to comic book characters
means that people on this site use handles like LanMan or leaner
or Zip the Wonder Puppet. How else should I address them if that's
what their handle is? Do you understand? I feel like I'm yelling at
comic book characters because their names are like comic book
As to why I am angry, I am only angry when provoked. For example,
D.A. and I have a working relationship. Selby and I have a working
relationship. In many cases they had to go out of there way to ignore
my theatrics, and they definitely wouldn't could me among their
coevals, but I think ( I hope ) we have an understanding that I see
their posts are heartfelt honest and, furthermore, was some grasp of
current goings-on. They may say different things about me in private,
or indeed, they may take the oppportunity now to say things to me
in public, regardless, I won't attack them like I attack people who
attack me. With Aurophile, it goes back to my perception that he
knew Flag was a scam and he took part in it with a wink and a nod.
Some people I attack just because I initially provoked them out of
pure randomness just to see how they would respond, and they
didn't respond very well. George Cole is one, but I don't really feel
so bad about this anymore because George is convinced that he
reversals in gold and the Dow with be leviathan, and this just deludes
people into having false hope. The turnaround will come, but it will
be as drug out as the approach. Of course, if in being banned from
this site I could take one person with me, it would definitely be
Stephen Mooney. Stephen is like that Albert Brooks comment in
Broadcast News about how the devil appears. Of course, that was a
movie and Stephen's ineptitude has been showing of late, but still,
you always remember your first fight.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:56)
Tired: I see. So this could be all part of a monstrous fiction. Hence aurophile's references to Iowa, where I think they have fiction workshops, etc. Well, it still disturbs me that someone would spend so much time maintaining such a lie, with such apparent glee. What possible gain could he derive?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:57)
Tired: Hepcat is so successful he lives in apartment A har har har har and he sits in his apartment ( A that is ) and posts almost continuously on Kitco because he has such an interesting and stimulating life. har har har

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:58)

A couple of participants asked how I came to Dow 9000.. Well, I believe we are
in Elliot wave 3 from the low in 4/14/97. This wave could go as hi as 8300 give or
take a few, and then if we get a .38 retracement. or even a .50 retracement from
the 8300 high a typical 5th wave would be between .62 and 1.0 times EW3..
that would be 9000 plus. I figure approx. 9200.. You must also understand I think
this is the 5th wave ( longer term ) but we are in wave 3 of the 5th.. I think Aurophile will understand this. So, more highs will come, and the next correction will be EW4 of the longer term EW5.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:59)
Tired. Monthly social security disability checks are not large by normal standards but over the lifetime of a 30 year old they amount to a substantial sum.

George Cole
(Wed Jul 23 1997 22:59)
WW: Your 19.06 post TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. The gold market is like a volcano. Pressure is building for a truly historic eruption. And the longer the pressure is allowed to accumulate, the bigger the explosion.

D.A. You are correct that either stocks go down a whole lot or many other assets must go up a whole lot to restore economic and financial equilibrium. Or some combination of the two. What this means for gold investors is that the higher stocks go today, the higher gold goes tomorrow.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:00)
The last Sirocco's fascinating note ( the proctotolgist ) was not mine. Back alley stabbing. Very courageous.
Oh! Well! We exposed the true faces of some on this board. Mean fellows. A la Bob Dole. Just that.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:02)
Sirocco ( 22:53 ) It took you EIGHT minutes to come up with THAT har har har

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:02)
who gives ......
hepcat, is your wife still considering that new job?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:02)
Front ( 18:17 ) : You should do that more often. Ramble that is. Your thoughts seem to be predicated on the infinite power of statehood. Though valid at the moment, we may find that power to be limited after all. .... Did I detect a tone of resignation as well????

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:02)
Sirocco ( 22:53 ) It took you EIGHT minutes to come up with THAT har har har

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:04)
Guys, I don't care if you post under my handle,
but at least do a better job of manufacturing artificial
exchanges. I'm not going to attack Sirocco.
Also, figure that I might have a very long post
upcoming, in which case it would be impossible
for me to post a short one around the same time
as the long one.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:04)
of the BS
PB - Crapcat!!! He enjoys it. I can tell. Just a thought: Feed the cat, he stays. Ignore and starve the cat, he goes away!!!!

Look out!!! We're being tag teamed by Sirocco!!!!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:05)
at hepcat
I don't think that you can perform!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:06)
I'm from Queens har har har har

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:06)
Hepcat: Thanks for your post. I am happy my patience paid off. I see that you admit to having deliberately provoked people in order to see how they would react ( George Cole ) , which habit of yours explains to me the origin of an accusation that you leveled at me earlier, i.e., that I was using you for entertainment purposes. Sometimes when we accuse we accuse ourselves most accurately.

Lurker 25
(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:07)
Fed up
All : Don't ever wrestle a pig. You're sure to get dirty and he likes it.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:09)
at Sirroco
Sirroco-Are you the queen of the Queens?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:10)

PB - Great, I'm glad I finally said something that could fit the template
you had made for me tonight. Except this time you had to confuse what
I said about harassing me to get it to work. I don't care if I provide the
nightly entertainment at this site. I enjoy the harassment by qualified
people because it can be rather fun, and it keeps them from posting
nonsense about imminent explosion in gold. You eaked out your
victory, but somehow I don't think you even needed me to convince
yourself of what you already thought.

who cares anymore-----------
(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:11)
@two words----bull sheet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
don't need this sheet anymore----

----rat-cat can have it all----------------

went from great to full of hate----------------

the time is right----to drop out of sight-----------

another time another place------------------------------

kitco has lost its' luster-----------------------------------

!; ( ---------------------------------------------------------------

away-----into the ether--------immfat--dotssm----tsssarfat------------

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:13)
at hepcat
I didn't know you are ball joggler?!

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:14)
Hep: I had no "template", as you put it. I also was not looking for victory, and I am still a little confused as to your intentions. You consider it your mission to discourage people from being bullish on gold?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:14)
of the BS
To the real Sirroco. I apologize for my comment.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:16)
who gives....
heps, is she still considering?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:17)
Greg - I'm glad you enjoyed that column ( "The hard facts about male
erectile dysfunction" ) . It was a lighthearted attempt to address a
stigmatized subject, and was a companion piece to a column about
the large number of unnecessary hysterectomies performed in the U.S.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:20)
PB - We're through talking ( I finally got it. You're reliving the Monty Python
"argument" sketch. )

Larry - ???? I appreciate your tangentiality, but I am completely lost
as to what you're asking?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:24)
mr. john
HEPCAT I didn't post the last post atributed to me. However, you want war I will give you war.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:26)
All: Does anyone know why Hepcat might be so passionate about discouraging people from being bullish on gold?

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:27)

Just so you can move on to something else, Sirocco imitators, I am
not addressing Sirocco, Scirocco, or anyone named Rocco or Ricky Rococo
on this site tonight. I have no reason to address them, even the real

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:28)
@alley meet
Stop screaming Hepcat, and help us out. We aint betting money on
Gold, so how about that challenge.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:29)
Lurker007: sorry. It did not take 8 minutes to post my last fascinating post. I am not spending all my time on Kitco. Just lurking. And seeing that this board has gone downhill just because of politics, religion and personalities.
I am still lurking because they are some great contributors ( Cole, Vronsky, Arden, and many others ) . That's all. Hepcat has some points. I did not think he posted the "cretin" post. In fact I bet the proctologist did. ( A basically mean fellow, with a sadistic trend ) .
I don't think slang and GI or GU attacks are very effective. Just a way for some mean, sour, oxydated and rancid fellows to vent their frustation off. Just harmless and completely ineffective.
They are Big egos on this boards... We say BIG egos, but in fact the problem is that these "big egos" reactions reflect very small and fragile egos inside. That is why they snap and react like that. Thay cannot tolerate a small attack or ideas that are different than theirs. Just my opinion.
Does anybody needs any medication on this board: of course not. Does some of us need to go to Queens and see the optimism there, simply paralelling the DOW... I think some probably could benefit. But then again, what do I know.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:31)
Citizen @ USofA & Canada
Mr. Greenspan also said the Fed was concerned about the high rate of
*job creation* and the strength behind *the expanding economy*
" The Federal Reserve must be *alert* to the *possibility* that
additional *action* might be called for to forestall *excessive* credit

"New Economy" theories, the Fed is not involved in an experiment.
Mr. Greenspan said: " The costs of a failed experiment would be much too
burdensome for too many of our citizens"

Soooo, Mr. Greenspan is concerned about *our citizens* One would ask
what citizen is Mr. Greenspan speaking, on behalf of? Bankers maybe.

Congressional Representative Louis McFadden, as chairman of the House Banking and Currency Committee, on May 23 1933, introduced, House
Resolution no. 158. Articles of Impeachment.

Mr. McFadden, was subjected to a whisper campaign that McFadden was
*insane* swept Washington. He was defeated, by thousands of dollars that
poured into his home district of Canton Pennsylvania.

May 23 1933, Articles of Impeachment against the Secretary of the
Treasury, two Assistant Secretaries of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve
Board of Governors, and officers and directors of the Federal Reserve
Banks for their guilt and collusion in causing the Great Depression.

"I charge them with having unlawfully taken over 80 billion dollars from
the United States Government in the year 1928, the said unlawful taking
consisting of the unlawful recreation of claims against the United States
Treasury to the extent of over 80 billion dollars in the year 1928, and
in each year subsequent, and by having robbed the United States
Government and the people of the United States by their theft and sale of
the *gold* reserve of the United States"

The Resolution, no. 158, never reached the floor.

On January 13 1932, McFadden, also made a Resolution, and there was no
action taken on this Resolution.: Indicting the Federal Reserve Board
of Governors for "Criminal Conspiracy"

" Whereas I charge them, jointly and severally, with the crime of having
treasonably conspired and acted against the peace and security of the
United States and having treasonably conspired to destroy constitutional
government in the United States.

Resolved, that the Committee on the Judiciary is authorized and directed
as a whole or by subcommittee to investigate the official conduct of the
Federal Reserve Board and agents to determined whether, in the opinion of
the said committee, they have been guilty of any high crime or
misdemeanour which in the contemplation of the Constitution requires the
interposition of the Constitutional powers of the House"

The Citizen's Government of the USofA, has attempted, via, elected
Representative's, done their best to address the issue of the Federal
Reserve Board. The citizens are not up to speed, on the issue of the Fed.
I, as a Canadian, expect, that in the very near future, the people of
the USofA, will in fact come to terms with the issue of GOLD, and the
Federal Reserve Board. To be sure Eh! Canada also, with her Bank of

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:32)
Gary mentioned in his 17:49 post that the young generation in Asia
is interested in western goods and not gold. My own observation,
based on recent contacts with some young Asian Indians, is that
Gary is probably right. They are- at least the men, and many of the
women - very much interested in automobiles, and have no interest
in gold. So, as a long term investment, oil is probably a better
buy than gold.

However, I also read in recent news from India that there has been
some kind of gold rush in India since the recent price decline.
( Do they think it's the bottom? ) I personally know people who were
waiting since last December for gold prices to come down before
buying. India's gold imports this year are expected to be 25
percent more than last year. India is the second largest producer
of gold jewelry, after Italy, and consumes 90 percent of the
production domestically. Gifts of gold jewelry are a must for
Indian marriages, and serve as a last resort store of savings for
hard times.

John and a few others are looking for a round number for a bottom
( or base ) , but is dollars/ounce the only unit to consider?
As I mentioned earlier 311 USD/oz is very round if one buys in
units of 10 grams or Kg.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:35)

In the absense of TED tonight, gold has slippped down somewhat
unnoticed. I never thought when predicting $325 on July 29 that
I would be too high. Yipes. I could be hoisted on my own petard
for being too optimistic.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:37)
Folks I'm outa here! whata bunch of nit wits

Senator Blutarsky
(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:38)

Look, until gold truly shakes the bear, I am afraid that we must suffer hepcat gladly. Hey all, sit back, relax, and have a brew. It don't cost nothin.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:42)

Last post of the night. Hem - After $325, I am not looking for
any particular number. Thanks for bringing the discussion
back to gold, and providing a more balanced view of
gold consumption in India. I am not denying that India
or China could provide the seed crystal for a turnaround,
I just don't see it being sustained without the influx of European
or N.A. money and the publicity machine.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:45)
D.A. ( 19:25 ) : A superb offering. Please post it once a week as the goldbug manifestoe. Even though its implications are broader than mere goldbuggery.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:49)
Senator Blutarsky: I am willing to endure Hepcat's persistent bashing of bullish gold sentiment, but I would feel a little better if I was sure that he didn't have some nefarious purpose re the market. After all, he has spent innumerable hours and energy attacking others without declaring his purpose.

(Wed Jul 23 1997 23:55)
a plea for sanity
MY FRIENDS: Has it occurred to anyone that this "cat business" is a deliberate attempt to disrupt this ( formerly excellent ) forum? The intellectual level has certainly deteriorated since the arrival of this new addition; AND since he has successfully baited several of you into the alley with him. Let us get back to the ( pressing ) business at's hour may be imminent!! Let's not miss it watching a hissing match! BART: You have the helm; the ship needs a strong hand at the rudder... especially during this watch. IMVHO