Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 00:01)

This,the gold market,will do what it has ro do in order to shake whoever
it has to before it begins an upmove.One has to hang on at a distance
making sure to keep enough powder dry and yet be in the market for the
move.For sure ,before it's over,it will shake those who are poetic in their assurance of the direction of this market.

R hyme
(Fri Jul 25 1997 00:09)
People seem tired of Politics now.I'm wondering if you are saying
that a similar period exists now .Thanks for that excellent post!

(Fri Jul 25 1997 00:10)
TORTURE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TED..........Stop torturing me with your tales of trips to Scaterie...I CAN'T STAND IT !!!!! Check your mailbox.....

(Fri Jul 25 1997 00:26)
Take back the right to print money from the Establishment!!! Goldbugs Rule!!!

(Fri Jul 25 1997 00:28)
MY #8 BELOW...
ALL....... In my #8 below, I certainly did not mean to offend anyone..It should have said "care for every dollar, while they look easy today, tomorrow they will be precious"....Do not take the theme of "easy come, easy go".........BEEN THERE, DONE THAT.....

The prayer was uttered by someone earlier "dear Lord please let there be another bull market in the metals. I promise I won't piss it all away this time"

I agree wholeheartedly.....

(Fri Jul 25 1997 00:30)
Mary-Rose...... you are not the first one to get caught at a bottom with some overpriced shares! But, you probably have the distinct honor of having your own govt do it to you! Hang on to them, they will go up eventually. It may even take a year to get out from under this mess. If it's any consolation, I bought big at $342 thinking, "there is no way this thing can go any lower." Of course, I'm in the enviable position that I can hang on to them for the long term. I hope you too, can put this aside and worry about other things!

(Fri Jul 25 1997 00:31)
Sattellite......earlier you wrote:

[[When I was younger, I listened to the likes of you people ( Howard Ruff and such ) and lost my entire savings on gold and silver investments.]]

Your first mistake was you indeed listened. Did you not take time to do your own research? Are you blaming your failure to succeed on others? Are you not taking responsibility for your own actions?

When I plunk down 10 grand on a stock or option, I am the one making the decision. No one has a gun to my head. I am sorry to hear that when you lost your savings, there was a gun to your head.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 00:33)

OK good buddy. It's time. This site is about gold investing. This site is not about goading or insulting or "mine is bigger than yours" mentality. I quote hepcat:

[[Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 14:15
john ( ) :

Gosh, yeah, and then RJ would have no competition. Like that response
( quite long for someone who expresses no interest in dealing with
people who live in the mud ) was a big surprise.

RJ, a little tip for you, good buddy. Aurophile may have groomed you, and
you may think everybody loves you, but you last as long on this
site as you're deemed useful, or as long as people can tolerate
your infallibility. ]]

I am sick and tired of hepcat insulting good and decent people. I'm tired of it, and I'm tired of it right now. His post continues ( after a smattering of gold talk ) :

[[Listen to you. You claim no one can predict the future, with one exception.
The only problem is, you're not the exception, and you're attempting to
eliminate the exception. Oh well, at least your disciples will learn a lot
about micturation.]]

Just for the record, I couldn't find micturation in any of my extensive dictionaries.

Regardless, the time is now. If so required, I'd be happy to backquote all his non-gold inanities and insults within the last couple weeks.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 00:37)
Re your number 9
Certainly no offence.The time ,soon ,will come.And we won't piss it
away.Solid advice you've given and experience will show that is wisdom and not poetry that will carry the day.

Commissar KGB
(Fri Jul 25 1997 01:20)
Last RJ Short Story Reed Like Kapitalist Polp, KGB go HAHAHA

RJ: Last short story mak KGB roll on floor and Agents vet pants, women KGB lift skirt to keep dry - no Karburators vall out.

KGB intellegenze s/expert zay RJ iz zo bizsy vit life story, he mak no platinum trade for over veek long time.
KGBs'experts zay many vaisted word ( 1829 totall ) make neu RJ zpeed rekord of 261 word/each day. Ven KGB kompare vit Zoveit Dummy who mak 300 vord/each day; KGB now know vhy Orange Kounty Bankrupp go. KGB Banking's/expert zay Zoviet Idiot run Kounty better and Amerika Zentral Bank, zay yes to KGB study.

Not to believe RJ hitman story. Rocco no match vor KGB fireplug guy.

Polize story, big Kapitalist lie. Pipe bomb and drugs Rocco's spezial businezs skils. Vee kno Rocco vell. Not to vorry Rocco, KGB won't inform Kapo, but ven you play, vee play.

TV story is Kapitalist hoax, cute teenage girlz khildren of KGB guys. Vee alvays kid fireplug about how an ugly guy kann a beautivul daughta hav. Fireplug like RJ story about little bird, but not all.

KBG Amerika Operativ never use glock 9mm pistol, vee use cowboy sex shooters and spray kans, zo vee fit in vit crazsy people in Amerika.

KGB luv Patton; Stalin zay Kapilalist pigs vat kill him, luv money more; and love Cold War much better, mak pigs rich and vorst dan CZAR.

Vit many butterflies KGB avait RJ Kapitalist reply.


(Fri Jul 25 1997 01:43)
scotty...I have a BIG book...
Micturate - to urinate micturate


Commissar KGB
(Fri Jul 25 1997 02:00)
Last RJ Short Story Reed Like Kapitalist Plop, KGB go HAHAHA

RJ: Last short story mak KGB roll on floor and Agents vet
pants, women KGB lift skirt to keep dry - no Karburators
vall out.

KGB intellegenze s/expert zay RJ iz zo bizsy vit life
story, he mak no platinum trade for over veek long time.

KGBs'experts zay many vaisted word ( 1829 totall ) make neu
RJ zpeed rekord of 261 word/each day. Ven KGB kompare
vit Zoveit Dummy who mak 300 vord/each day; KGB now know
vhy Orange Kounty Bankrupp go. KGB Banking's/expert zay
Zoviet Idiot run Kounty better and Amerika Zentral Bank,
zay yes to KGB study.

Not to believe RJ hitman story. Rocco no match vor KGB
fireplug guy.

Polize story, big Kapitalist lie. Pipe bomb and drugs
Rocco's spezial businezs skils. Vee kno Rocco vell. Not
to vorry Rocco, KGB won't inform Kapo, but ven you play,
vee play.

TV story is Kapitalist hoax, cute teenage girlz khildren
of KGB guys. Vee alvays kid fireplug about how an ugly
guy kann a beautivul daughta hav. Fireplug like RJ story
about little bird, but not all.

KBG Amerika Operativ never use glock 9mm pistol, vee use
cowboy sex shooters and spray kans, zo vee fit in vit
crazsy people in Amerika.

KGB luv Patton; Stalin zay Kapilalist pigs vat kill him,
luv money more; and love Cold War much better, mak pigs
rich and vorst dan CZAR.

Vit many butterflies KGB avait RJ Kapitalist reply.


(Fri Jul 25 1997 02:05)
RJ Thanks for the action report and the story. Looking forward to rave reviews of those golden shorts : ) The scenario seems promising for you my friend. My only cause for concern is "Why else would the CB of the worlds largest gold producing nation buy the stuff?" Could it be something besides a hedge. Ah well, I'm long so probably wishful thinking. Nevertheless, when you hike those your butt.
Wouldn't want to miss chapter three!

Of Interest
(Fri Jul 25 1997 02:13)
South Africa

News about tribal violence from FT 7/25/97 edition.

John Disney
(Fri Jul 25 1997 02:35)
For Panda -
Yes I think Western Deep results are out today along
with the rest of the anglos mines. Ill know when I get
the paper in a few hours. Yes they do post the cost. I
know already that westerns are down to 288 from 313 per
oz prior quarter. They also were hedged forward.
As I said yesterday re Munks claim of 200 cost and
420 hedged making 220 profit per oz produced.
Barrick produces 3 million oz per year, and has
373 million shares out. Thus Munk implies earning per
share of 220 * 3 mill/373 mill = 660/373 = $1.76.
But woops - they only earn 0.4 per share so where
did the other $1.36 go - Ok so Barrick has the worlds
LOWEST cost and the worlds BEST hedge and the worlds
largest UNEXPLAINED expences.

John Disney
(Fri Jul 25 1997 03:03)
To "of interest"
Yes new party of Holomisa, Nkabinde, and Meyer has new slant on
democracy. If you beat them in an election, they kill you - wow -
better to lose eh ??
Before various concerned kitcoites start send me "how terrible it
is " messages, please realize we are talking about the Natal midlands
where the ANC and the IFP fought for the past umpteen years. Nkabinde
is an ex-ANC warlord who assassinated many of Buthelezi's leaders. However, the Western press ( out to do a number on buthelezi for their own reasons ) never printed anything against the guy. Finally his activities became even too much for the ANC to stomach and he was becoming an embarassment. They recently expelled him from the party so he joined the Holomisa/Meyer group.
Holomisa is Xhosa speaking and from the Transkei in the Eastern Cape.
Meyer is an Afrikaans speaking White guy who quit the Nats. Nkabinde is
an ex-ANC Zulu speaker. Natal is big time Zulu country where the
countryside is mainly IFP and the cities ANC/IFP. Nobody was going to
vote for these guys anyway. Problem is if you beat them, you get whacked.
Interesting eh ??

Of Interest
(Fri Jul 25 1997 03:21)
Thanks for on site opinion

John Disney: S.A. has always had flair ups, that hurt those who are directly involved, or within range. With all the terrible press over the many years; my impression has been that she runs rings around her neighboors relative to an ordered society. Maybe it's English Law?

(Fri Jul 25 1997 04:38)
@ food inflation
Storm Clouds of Inflation
Will El Nino again wreak havoc with food prices? Weather watchers
may want to stock up on soy futures.
By Susan Lee

Once again, the Federal Reserve -- having cast its eye out over the horizon -- has
failed to sight inflationary weather. The great ship of state will remain on course;
the sails do not have to be lowered.

I don't know where, exactly, the Fed was looking, but it sure wasn't Peru. Peru?

Yep. That's where the first sign of a nasty little weather phenom --
and potential inflation -- was sighted last month. It's called El
Nio and it's a warming trend in ocean currents along the eastern
Pacific that appears first in Peru. El Nio -- Spanish for the Christ
child because its impact is most obvious in December -- has been noted as far back
as the late 15th century. It appears seemingly at random ( about every seven years )
and lasts anywhere from 18 months to two years, causing the ocean's temperature
to rise between five and nine degrees Fahrenheit.

But that's just the initial manifestation. This disturbance is apparently the author
of full-scale havoc. During the last bad episode, from 1982 to 1983, El Nio was
blamed for dramatically
horrid weather all over the globe.

Huge storms pounded the eastern Pacific coast from Chile to
Alaska. ( Poor Peru had 13 feet of rain in six months. ) California,
Florida and two-thirds of the southern United States experienced
torrential rains. There also were droughts. Africa, Australia,
Indonesia, the Philippines and India were parched. And there
were cyclones in Tahiti, hurricanes in Hawaii, tornadoes in the
deep southern United States and blizzards in Greece.
Not a pretty picture. In all, $4 billion to $8 billion in damage was
done worldwide. Many grain crops were history and oceanic birds
and fisheries were devastated. It was unpleasant and disruptive,
but the economic consequences were no great shakes.

So where's the inflation in this story? In the El Nio of 1972 to

Same preface: El Nio appears off the coast of Peru, making the
water too warm for fish, most notably anchovies ( a source of
protein feed ) . Peru happened to have one of the most important
fishing industries in the world, so an instant fishmeal shortage
resulted. At the same time, drought decimated the peanut crop in
West Africa and India, aggravating the scarcity of protein feed.
Not to forget, there was also a worldwide failure of the wheat
crop, most notably in the former Soviet Union.

Hence, demand for agricultural goods surged and, of course,
prices skyrocketed. This situation worked its way up through the
food chain, causing prices for wheat, soy and corn, and then
chicken and beef, to more than double.

This El Nio did have a gigantic economic consequence. In 1973,
the U.S. rate of inflation was 12%.

To be fair, inflation also was pushed by mega-stupidities like a
loose-as-a-goose Federal Reserve and Nixon's elimination of the
gold standard in 1971, as well as the meanness of the Arab
states' trebling of oil prices in 1973. And, to be rigorously fair,
these events may have accounted for most of the run-up in the
rate of inflation.

Nonetheless, El Nio delivered a huge weather shock to a great
chunk of the world's economy that then surfaced as inflation.

Is it about to happen again?

Here's what we know: A strong El Nio effect is associated with
good crops in the United States, but bad crops in other agricultural powerhouses
like Australia, China and Argentina. If there is a global grain shortfall ( and no
anchovies ) , that puts the U.S. farm sector on top. But it also zooms demand and
thus prices for all consumers. And I mean all consumers -- from owners of feed
lots, to bakers of hamburger buns, to once-a-week eaters of Big Macs. And food
inflation is stubborn. One can't just substitute another good for food. ( Hey! I'll skip
the hamburger. Give me an extra Jeep instead . . . )

If food inflation appears, the Fed has two choices: It can accommodate inflation by
pumping out more money ( unlikely ) or it can clamp down by raising interest rates
( likely ) .

Here's what we don't know: How strong the El Nio effect will be.
Some scientists are predicting the worst El Nio in 50 years, but
the accuracy of their forecast can't be judged until this fall. Pretty iffy.

However -- and this is for the strong of stomach -- I will tell you
what one weather scientist told me. Back in 1972, a trader on the
Chicago Merc noted heavy rains in Peru. He bought futures
contracts on soy and made a breathtaking fortune. So the reckless among you might
want to keep an eye on futures for corn, wheat and soy as well as cattle, hogs,
sugar and cocoa. Presumably, so will the Fed.

And if you're eating $10 hamburgers this winter, don't say I didn't
warn you.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 05:17)

TED--Try this for info on metal detectors. Also, there are many magazines on treasure hunting that would have info. Good luck and keep us posted.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 05:51)
Good mornin Auric and other Kitcoites!...Thanks for the site Auric..EBN Gold up 1.23 and Silver up 1 cent despite strong Dollar...Another beautiful sunny day on the North Atlantic...WAKE UP TORT...and give us our daily bread....

George Cole
(Fri Jul 25 1997 06:08)
counterattack gathering steam
August gold up $1.30 according to DBC. Looks like we are in for an interesting Friday!

Will the shorts be able to slam the yellow as usual at day's end? As Glenn told us yesterday, they will go to almost any length in their fanatical efforts to drive gold down. But they are very vulnerable to the well-financed counterattack now beginning to unfold.

Bottom line -- the base may still need a little more concrete, but the foundation for a major move up has been created.

Big reversals still expected in August with very little warning. Bull to bear for stocks, bear to bull for gold.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 06:26)
On thre matter of where will gold be a year from now -- FOUR SEVEN FIVE.




(Fri Jul 25 1997 06:29)
RJ ( 23:01 ) Another gem.....Nailz ( 23:37 ) only ten percent....6pak ( 23:57 ) another informative history lesson....Scotty ( 00:31+00:33 ) Not a bad two minute span....

Mike Sheller
(Fri Jul 25 1997 06:48)
DONALD, IDT: Something tells me we've done this before...but here goes. As to "inverse" relationship of gold & Dow, I have observed that gold moves up in a bull mode toward the last few months to a year of a cyclical bull market in stocks. More often than not the precious metals have a rebirth just before a stock bull peaks. A look at silver versus stocks on long long term charts will illustrate nicely. At MAJOR asset inversions, however ( the last occurred in 1972 ) there is a very obvious inverse relationship relative to new highs, etc. Stocks are prevented from making new highs by their over valuation, and metals catch up and exceed their relative value as hard stuff rises, etc. If this is just another cyclical bull market in stox, and the precious as a class have not yet had their fling , then that might indicate more to go for stox. But if we are approaching the brink of a major asset inversion, then the metals will be unimpressive until the fulcrum, or crossover point of this whole thing is reached. It could happen in the "grin of a hummingbird." IMHO, the inversion will be unfolding early in '98, with a precious metals bull emerging that will show significant peaks in 2000, due to exogenous reasons, and again in 2003. So we are talking here about an approaching reversal of major proprtions. The current consensus figures, price patterns, and anecdotal psychology vis a vis gold and the general stock market reflects a CLASSIC divergence of asset classes that has reached an unsustainable extreme. Inherent in every cyclical action is the universe's demand for BALANCE. The pendulum must swing back. I like to have fun with the short term swings in markets, but if someone were to ask me, the really safe and sane way to approach gold now is, and has been, the steady accumulation of bullion in a dollar-cost-averaging mode. That strategy can last until the turn of '98 when a better assessment of where we actually are can be made.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Jul 25 1997 06:58)
I would just like to comment on the occasional plaint from posters who take various and sundry Kitcoites ( and, I suspect, others in their lives ) to task for being infallible ( except for RJ, who is my hero ) . There are always the occasional lectures from people who get very upset when somebody, or a group of somebodies, posts "advice," or observations, or strategies, that backfire or are proven wrong. They get very upset that such paragons of expertise are misleading the doe-eyed and innocent new lambs that have stumbled vacuously onto the slaughterhouse floor. Well, slipping and sliding in blood, and running off to the corner to puke while keeping your guts from fallinbg out and entangling your feet, is part of the game. There is no "winning" without losing. And there is no "profit" without loss. This is a diverse crowd, but I think we all have one thing in common - nobody here WANTS to be wrong, or to lose money. We sometimes just can't help it. That's life. The alternative for everyone is to never open your mouth, and to never go outside your Monk's cell. Been there, Done that. I'll live MY life, thank you, and hope everyone has the pleasure of doing the same for themselves. Now let's get out there and stop whining already.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Jul 25 1997 07:08)
DONALD: Re "Squares" per Frost, etc. Gann used squares as well, as I'm sure you know. He was an astrologer and used the square of time & price. I've looked into that, but must confess I have not devoted as much time to Gann as he deserves. I tend to be down and dirty and use corporate astrology. I look at company horoscopes, and the scope of the NYSE for industrial group activity, etc. I also tend to use only certain of the outer planets for aspect work, because they represent very major long-term or dramatic influences on a company's fortunes, and, hence, stock price. The "square" that is most important to me now is and has been the 90 degree angle the transiting Uranus has been making to NYSE Venus. This was observed to be a major negative for gold, based on my historic research, and has proven itself out. While I am still looking for that "summer rally", this condition will persist, and intensify one last time ( due to retrograde action of Uranus ) in late fall/winter of this year. Thyen the pressure will lift. That does not mean gold will automatically rise at the turn of '98, but the basis for a renewed and sustainable bull trend will be then in place.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 07:09)
TED -- What gives with the EBN site? My ISP can't find it! Is the EBN site up? Is my ISP too stupid to find it????

Mike Sheller
(Fri Jul 25 1997 07:10)
excuuuuse me
Re My 6:58 - meant to say "fallibile." Or was it nubile?

(Fri Jul 25 1997 07:13)
Panda:Mornin! Why ya askin ME about EBN...yeah,it's up and runnin...EBN Gold up 1.63...and climbing....

(Fri Jul 25 1997 07:15)
Mornin Mike Sheller! Blue skies here....

(Fri Jul 25 1997 07:23)
Asian currencies continued their plung on Wednesday dragged down by the Thai baht...The Malaysian Ringgit was also hit and even the HK dollar took it up the ^%##@%...Jin: Give us an update....please....

(Fri Jul 25 1997 07:27)
DBC best for quotes @
these are real time with constant updates!

(Fri Jul 25 1997 07:34)
MIKE SHELLER: Did the hummingbird already wink on the July 11th? The gold ratio is moving in favor of gold since that date, in spite of several new highs in the Dow and nervous gold since then. Using round numbers from history we have: 1929 Dow ratio 18, 1932 Dow ratio 1, 1966 Dow ratio 28,
1980 Dow ratio 1, today Dow ratio 25. So it seems we agree there is an inverse correlation at the peaks and the valleys. What we have in between, in my opinion, is guidance on the direction of the next peak or valley. Information that can be used to decide on how many stocks to own or how much gold to own. Sure, it is "Market Timing" and everybody says you can't do that and make money. I don't have any of that fancy chart software, wish I did, but it tells me that gold is smart. If you look at the stock market, in terms of dollars, inflation fools you. You have no idea how much you are paying for the paper. Only gold tells you the truth. Gold tells me if you bought the Dow in 1966, for the long haul, and need to sell today for retiremment, you ARE STILL NOT EVEN. If you bought the Dow in 1980 with the same intent you are doing just fine now, but you better sell right now and retire dammit!

Mike Sheller
(Fri Jul 25 1997 07:36)
Morning Ted. Grey skies, a few drops, linger from yesterday's rain over Long Island. Weather is cool and almost Fall-like. Enjoy those blue skies Ted!

Mike Sheller
(Fri Jul 25 1997 07:46)
@The Donald
DONALD: You bring up perhaps the most serious point of all for "Investors." That is the inversion of major trends can often run a financial "lifetime" for many people. Getting caught at the top in ANY asset, be it gold, stocks, bonds, RE, etc, can mean a long and painful decline in one's equity stake. Being long at the bottom, when everything looks like sh*t for your asset of choice may in the end turn out to be a wonderful blessing. Buy and hold is a great philosophy when the asset you are buying is genuinely in the crapper. Current evidence points in that direction for gold. As for stocks, since my primary focus is on relatively obscure companies with specific astrological dynamics approaching, my activities are not so much determined by the overall trend of the stock market as much as pertinent time windows in which I live or die. But I'm always on my toes for significant corrections, because once the blood flows the dealers will take 'em all down whenever they get the chance.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 07:46)
@Boom, Bust or ???
Mornin, Ted: Nice slow, steady rise in gold since opening in London this a.m. on Bart's 24 hr spot gold chart Who knows what'll happen when those NYers take over???

How are yer shoulders this fine morn? Bluebird day here too; off across the lake for long w.e.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 07:49)
@PGM news.
More news on the PGM front;

(Fri Jul 25 1997 07:57)
So let me get this straight; The currency markets are now driving the equities markets, and everybody knows it, and it's O.K. ???


Bob A
(Fri Jul 25 1997 07:59)
Latest Nat Rev, column by J. Dizard who has liked plat and pall. for at least 6mths. He still likes it and says stocks of both are empty and unlike in the past users will stockpile both for the future due to lack of reliability of supply. This should keep price up, buy SWC. His column also was bullish on gold.

John Disney
(Fri Jul 25 1997 08:20)
To panda and others
Anglos results out today

Elandsrand profits after capex 31 cents/share versus
32 last quarter.
Ergo unchanged at 34 cents
Fregold at 50 cents versus 55 last quarter
vaal reefs 364 cents versus 404 last quarter.
Western deep was star of the show with earnings
of 166 versus 128 last quarter.

costs per ounce in $ follows for info
wstern deep - 293
elandsrand - 259
ergo - 275
vaal reefs - 279
freegold - 346

Much of the reduction in costs at WD was due to
treating more high grade mined material and less
low grade surface material.

PS has anybody figured out where the "profits"
go at Barrick????

(Fri Jul 25 1997 08:23)
John Disney -- Thank you!

(Fri Jul 25 1997 08:26)
John Disney: You have a problem with Barrick Gold?

(Fri Jul 25 1997 08:48)
Pl and Pa soring
Bob A and Panda...Pl and Pa soring up again this morning. How many days does it have to be up-the-limit before SWC takes off????

(Fri Jul 25 1997 08:49)
@ Valley
Hey Ted ... Thanks for the mail , I was exhausted just reading what you did yesterday , let alone trying it!! It's time to buy the Buffet way....
Templeton is saying the U.S market is way over valued.... Who's right , Grenne or Templeton ?? Time to park the money wagon in parts of the gold index!!!

(Fri Jul 25 1997 08:50)

(Fri Jul 25 1997 08:51)
Check the PGM's out at

(Fri Jul 25 1997 08:53)
BillD -- Durable goods come out. BTW, it was double expectations! Bonds went flat! Go figure. I guess everyone really believes that inflation is dead. Consequently, they don't care about the metals! SWC is still a good bet. At some point reality WILL SINK IN! My COMMRADES will see to it! :- ) )

(Fri Jul 25 1997 08:58)
Bundesbank to target M3 at 5% growth.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 09:00)
Its extremely difficult to predict the exact forex rate these days.They moved in very wide range.Full of excitement.Like RJ mentioned before,he can sell short in the morning and get the profit by the close.Its just happened in the currency exchange over here!VERY difficult!You got MORE,LOST OR FLAT!
Its all depand on 3 days meeting at shanghai abt the financial crisis happened now in!IF,they can't find the better solutios at 48 hours,MONDAY SHOULD BE THE BIG DAY......MAY DAY?!WATCH OUT!
tHE MAIN target is THAILAND ( krungthep! ) ,the land of smile...:- ( !!
happy trading!maybe this can help you...

(Fri Jul 25 1997 09:00)
Central Banks:
The worlds central banks have been consistent sellers of their peoples gold for the last ten years. Each year except two they have been net sellers. Which two years did they not sell? In 1987 they about did nothing. In 1988 they bought 242 tons. What happened in 1987 to cause this rare buying of gold? How many hundreds/thousands tons of gold will they be forced to buy/steal the next time it happens ( could be fairly soon ) ?

Bob A
(Fri Jul 25 1997 09:03)
From what I've read SWC has had a management shakeup. They also sold forward at a not so great price. SWC had a recent high of 25+.I bought more yesterday. How long before it takes off?I don't know but I like the story.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 09:03)
Durable goods story;


(Fri Jul 25 1997 09:08)
These guys are acting just like Americans. Let's "study" it.

Asian Bankers to `Study' Ways to Boost Currencies

Asian central bankers, reeling from speculative attacks this month that drove down the value of their
currencies, agreed to ``study'' ways to boost their value. The joint statement by central bankers from
11 Asia-Pacific nations, gathering in Shanghai for a regular meeting of the executives of East Asian
and Pacific Central Banks, fell short of promises to intervene directly to prop up neighboring
currencies. The statement was aimed at curbing speculation in Asian currencies by making it more
expensive for investors to bet against a currency, analysts said.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 09:09)
to all
anyone interested abt ASIA?TRY THIS:

(Fri Jul 25 1997 09:09)
Good afternoon Jin and thank you for the M.Graves...Could Messier really leave us?? Novice: Still sore...but not bad all things considered....S+P futures up 1.65...Jimmy Rogers on CNBC talkin about spreading Asian currency crisis...He's critical of Malaysian central bank...Jin...

(Fri Jul 25 1997 09:12)
Jimmy Rogers says it's still not the time to buy GOLD,cause of CB sellin and he's waiting for panic to set in before buyin....

Lan Man
(Fri Jul 25 1997 09:15)
@AULand welfare costs
Skylark: look on the bright side, they can take that *extra* 100 mil and pay those 25K unemployed miners $333. a month.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 09:15)
ted,some more
Please show me the CNBC adress..thanks

(Fri Jul 25 1997 09:15)
Bema Gold releases forward sales figures.

Lan Man
(Fri Jul 25 1997 09:21)
@Its Overhead
John Disney: Most goes to Administrative costs.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 09:33)
Jin: But I was referring to watching Jimmy Rogers on CNBC TELEVISION....Do you get CNBC in your area??

(Fri Jul 25 1997 09:57)
Testing, please ignore

(Fri Jul 25 1997 10:05)
IMO re. your 0438; what is the rain situation in Peru? And what does it imply for the AG. mrkts?

(Fri Jul 25 1997 10:26)
Joke of the morn
Morning Ted, Cherokee, Panda, Blonde, Reify, Roebear, Aurelf and studs and studdettes too numerous to name. Its indeed Friday. Gold and Silver are going to take a firm stand today. Hopefully the previous sentence was not my joke of the day. The following, in the spirit of bad natured Clinton bashing is.

Former Vice President Quayle, Speaker of the House
Gingrich, and President Clinton are traveling in a car together
in Kansas.

A tornado comes along and whirls them up into the air and
tosses them thousands of yards away. They all fall into a

When they come to the extract themselves from the vehicle,
they realize they're in the fabled Land of Oz.

They decide to go see the famous Wizard of Oz. The Wizard
is known for granting people their wishes.

Quayle says, "I'm going to ask the Wizard for a brain."

Gingrich responds, "I'm going to ask the Wizard for a heart."

Clinton speaks up, "Where's Dorothy?"

(Fri Jul 25 1997 10:41)
SWC..a pl and pa stock
Bob A and seems to me that this stock has not "taken-off" .. is a lack of VOLUME. tHE FUNDAMENTALS/TA look good ... just need some buyers!!

(Fri Jul 25 1997 10:44)
For all a new indicator. Going to the surf-sand-sun for awhile to blow out cobwebs and oogle nubile bikinis. Will probably end up exhausted from chasing beach bums away from daughters. Anyway, over the years some catastrophe usually happens while we are at the beach. The last time went to beach for more than a day Iraq invaded Kuwait. So I bought my favorite oil stock, will cash in when get back : ) ) You guys take care of the AU/AG while I'm gone.

Bob A
(Fri Jul 25 1997 10:57)
to Bill D
Vol. has been low,I consider this a turnaround stk that requires the metal to maintain the 400 and 200 price. I've been in and out a couple of times and am now in. Dines likes it , Fid sel am gold owns it and Dizard has me convinced as to the upside of the metals. Just a matter of short time.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 11:00)
GPGI @ movin on up

24 July 1997

As most of you know, we have been working diligently at the mill to gear up and have our
in-house refinery come on line. This was accomplished on a small scale several weeks ago. Shortly
after that time, we began a few production runs of material. Our assays looked very good and we
decided to forward these platinum group products to a commercial refiner. We were becoming
somewhat concerned as time passed and no word was received. However, late yesterday
afternoon, the reports came back.

I am tremendously proud to notify each and every shareholder of Global Platinum + Gold that
Engelhard West, Inc. has given notice to your Company that they intend to purchase our
product. This most prestigious and reputable domestic refiner appears impressed at the quaity and
purity of material we initially sent to them.

Your Company has demonstrated it can produce a product with which a commercial refiner can
easily work. It is no longer a matter of "if" we can produce the metals. We have done that
numerous times in the past. We have now proven we can refine a high quality and very pure
product that is of value to extremely reputable domestic refiners.

Engelhard West, Inc. has stipulated a minimum shipment quantity which should be below our
current daily capacity We are also in the process of moving to expand this capacity in the near

(Fri Jul 25 1997 11:12)
Donald- As you seem to follow Asia closely, could you tell what what you think about the Korean Stock Market? I'm short KF @ 21.75, but have no idea to what extent the current price reflects the situation there. Any thoughts? Thanks in advance.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 11:13)
Missed Jim Rogers on CNBC, but for those interested some of his articles are at &

(Fri Jul 25 1997 11:20)
SCOTTY re micturation: he probably means "micturition". Webster's says:

Mic`tu*ri"tion ( ? ) , n. [L. micturire to desire to make water, v. desid. fr. mingere, mictum, to make water.] The act of voiding urine; also, a
morbidly frequent passing of the urine, in consequence of disease.

Surprising to find a doctor misspelling a medical term.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 11:50)
Silverless photos:
Good article on the front page of todays wsj on Kodaks lack of profits on its huge investment in silverless photos. In my opinion very few people who are not professionals will screw around with thousands of dollars of software and hardware for hours or days for a few pictures. Maybe in another ten years ( which is what we were saying ten years ago ) ?

(Fri Jul 25 1997 12:02)
Down In The Dirts - Again....
Cueball: I hope I am not being *excessively* cynicial here but the eptitath for GPGI could well be the last paragraph of their notice:

"Engelhard West, Inc. has stipulated a minimum shipment quantity which should be below our current daily capacity We are also in the process of moving to expand this capacity in the near future...."

The day they are able to meet Englehard's minimum production requirements on a sustained basis will signal a fundamental shift in Gold and PGMS. It will be very interesting to watch.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 12:21)
All is well @ Canada (steady as she goes boys)
July 25 1997
NOT TO Worry, all is well, in Canada, EH!
Bankruptcies: Drop
Retail Sales: Rise
Investment Spending to Rise
Composite Index: Steady
Foreign Investors: Sell
New Home Starts: Drop

Gold is down, Stocks are up, why be worried, no need to expect bad
happenings. Modern Artificial Control, will see that everyone is safe.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 12:21)
CUEBALL: Why the change from "they" to "we".

(Fri Jul 25 1997 12:29)
Here we go again with spot driving higher at the exact same time as yesterday. Will it hold this time?


(Fri Jul 25 1997 12:32)
Anyone know how to interpret the ^bgold ( brussels ) index? Is it an
index or the price of spot gold in Belgium franks in their time zone?

(Fri Jul 25 1997 12:43)
Quintessential California...not...try...neo-semi-demi-psuedo-California
I know California well and I do know that O.C. and quintessential should not be used in the same sentence. ( especially now that the KGB are roosting there ) . I do business up and down the Cal. coast and everytime I must enter the Orange Crush zone I get the heebie-jeebies before too long ( although there is great surf and restaurants ) . RJ, WADR, I think you have been AWAY from Seattle too long and your judgement is getting clouded ( is it the antihistamines? ) from the ( well known and sometimes legendary ) "tequila/betty syndrome". Not to worry, take a long weekend and get the HELL OUT OF THERE. Try meandering up the coast ( since you don't own a Porsche or Mercedes ) on you Harley or Hum-Vee or Range-Rover or "Beemer" or use your buddies Lend Lease Dodge Truck and cover some rough country. Try going inland and up towards the Sierra's ( try your luck at panning for GOLD? ) Go to Yosemite. To the Desert. To the lakes... just GO any point AWAY from O.C. and the boardwalks of semi-demi-naked-nubile-busties... then you can, again, start to see the Quintessential California! The one I know and love. EB's Backyard...the one that shake's like MAD sometimes.

If you need some hot tips ( although being the hip dude that we know you are, you probably don't need them ) to seeing some GOOD Calif. you know where to find me. I'll be...



D.A. - sorry you had to live in Reseda ( went to CSUN? )

Wine comes in at the mouth
and love comes in at the eye
That's all we shall know for truth
before we grow old and die.

Pizza Man
(Fri Jul 25 1997 12:48)
It appears to me that the shorts are systematically closing out their
positions for GC Q7 after London PM fix is established. That way they
do not give the appearance of any strength in gold to rally. Than
they establish the new shorts driving the price back down.
It seems like this would be a good time for a big time ( BT ) speculator
to exploit this scenario.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 12:54)
@bullion vs stocks.
I know George S. Cole doesn't like to see bullion lead the stocks, but that is what I expect until gold breaks up more convincingly. The XAU is still historically overvalued when compared to the bullion price. Also, stock investors are and will be 'skeptical' on any gold rally until major resistance points are taken out. This will put somewhat of a lid on the xau performance relative to bullion in the first stages of any meaningful future rallies.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 13:05)
A good cup of coffee, get dressed for work...
and what's this? Platinum going, going, ???...oh my!

awaaaaaaaay :-D


(Fri Jul 25 1997 13:12)
or is this a Key reversal...
We'll have to wait and see...

Jake B. seasonals say sell PL 7/25 and 8/1 and it works 77.8 and 81.5% of the time, respectively...well it hasn't been right 20odd% of the time. Let's fight history! Let's go against the grain! Kitcoites know this well!


(Fri Jul 25 1997 13:14)
CRB index now up to 238.76 and rallying, Au 326.60 ( was up to 328 )
Pizzaman, maybe they can TRY to hold gold, but the whole CRB is taking a run at them....if it breaks over 240 and hold we'll have some fun
...stocks are overvalued...the US $ at its peak, inflation around the corner, some exports being hurt by strong US $, IT slowdown ( Microsoft warning )

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Fri Jul 25 1997 13:17)
To All: Firstly, thank you to everyone who emailed their opinions on hepcat. Although I asked only for messages in support of not preventing hepcat from posting, the vast majority of those who sent me email were not supportive.

If you read the comments here you would probably find about 85% of them express a desire not to have to tolerate a belligerent and disrespectful style of commentary. The key factor in deciding to disable access to any specific individual is not simply that it is the consensus of the majority. More importantly it boils down to business sense.

A lot of effort has been spent trying to attract people to our website. For those who have been here from the start you've seen many changes all of which have been inspired by requests from visitors. When 85% of your regulars are all making the same suggestion, you follow it. When you're providing a service and 85% of your clients are dissatisfied with it, you change what needs to be changed.

By allowing hepcat to continue with antagonizing commentary we run the risk of losing participation from many individuals informed and experienced in precious metals. Restricting access to hepcat means we lose only one.

I've informed hepcat on more than one occasion that his participation is welcome and appreciated here as long as the focus is on the markets and not on the participants. He'll have full access again if he complies or when we install our squelch button, whichever comes first.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 13:40)
CRB over 239 and rallying Au 327
RJ be careful when you hike the skirt, KGB is right behind you

(Fri Jul 25 1997 13:44)
Sigh of relief
Bart - Hoorah! Good decision.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 13:44)
GVC: Why do you say that the XAU is still historically overvalued vs bullion ? Do you mean the ratio is still above historic lows. This is a flase measure. The ratio has to expand over the years as the XAU components grow. The acquired more reserves relative to their market caps. The current XAU is as cheap as it was in 92-93 or almost. Look at the valuation of one of its main component, Barrick:

(Fri Jul 25 1997 13:48)
WSF: I am not a Registered Advisor so I can't give advise. But you don't seem to need it. KF is a closed end fund is it not? Did you check to see what the premium was, if any, when you shorted? What is the premium/discount now? That could be a problem but it looks to me that the only other thing you need to do is to be patient.

Pizza Man
(Fri Jul 25 1997 13:54)
Just a beginner so please excuse my ignorance, but what is the CRB index?
If you were $13.00 dollars down on the long side, would you hold the line.
Where would you have placed your stops.

George Cole
(Fri Jul 25 1997 14:04)
August gold up $3.40. If we can hold most of this gain by the close of this FRIDAY so soon after Greenspan's rational exuberance testimony, smart shorts better start running for cover. Demand is catching up to supply and will soon surpass it decisively.

Those of you expecting bullion to lead the stocks on the way up may have a point. The speculative short interest in bullion is much higher than at previous bottoms and this may have changed the dynamics of the gold stock/gold bullion interaction.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 14:13)
For any who might have been wondering about the meaning of the above word, ( which I used Wednesday in my Ode to Hepcat ) , it is roughly:
The habit of estimating things as worthless and belittling others' achievements. Fliperous: A proud gossip. Keak: to cackle. Pumpkinification: Pompous behaviour or exaggerated praise. Venenate: To poison. ETC.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 14:16)
International Analyst, James Dines Rule of Gold Countertrend says: The price of gold tends to move generally opposite to the rest of the stock market. See July 21, 1997 Study at:

(Fri Jul 25 1997 14:17)
Gold & Silver Future Good - BUT DOW BEAR TO BEGIN JULY 28
Astrological Investor interviews expert energy & mining industry entrepreneur/astrologer, who foresees Precious Metals Bull, but Wall Street Bear. SEE Astrological Investor: -

(Fri Jul 25 1997 14:22)

Have been here lurking and had occasional posts in the past.
For the past 1 1/2 year on this site and it just keeps getting better.
Sort of reminds me of my family or any family for that matter.

You are a very responsible DAD and rules are very good for your kids.
This site which is great part of our lives provides great knowledge and deserves respect.

Thank you Bart

Hepcat, there are great lessons to learn in life. This one is respect.

Cherokee, talk about chaos!!!

(Fri Jul 25 1997 14:28)
( Not to scare anyone, but I'm from NC. )
Comments anyone- Given Greenspan's past affiliation with Ayn Rand/Objectivism and his recent actions re: the bubble economy, which is the proper conclusion?
A ) He has abandoned earlier views.
B ) Not A, but he is petrified, walking a tightrope, and doesn't know what to do.
C ) Not A, but sees no conflict between earlier views and today.

I recall an article in Investor's Business Daily around summer 95 which brought this general topic up, and have been trying to figure out the answer since.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 14:34)
Hello WWC:

If you've ever read Ayn Rand's "Atlas Shrugged" the character of Dr. Robert Statler is the equivelent of Greenspan.

Bob A
(Fri Jul 25 1997 14:36)
to WSF
D ) He awaits Hillery's instruction

(Fri Jul 25 1997 14:37)
@CB`S or whatever..
Will they do it again?

At 15:30 est it looks like they will do the same insane trick Glenn reported yesterday.


(Fri Jul 25 1997 14:39)
GVC, perhaps now is the time then to sell puts on the gold stocks rather than bu calls.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 14:59)
APH: You still around? Haven't seen a post from you in quite some time. What do you think of last two days action in bullion and XAU???

(Fri Jul 25 1997 15:01)
I have read Atlas Shrugged, and have used it and Greenspan's earlier writings as a basis from which to believe that he wouldn't let things get this 'irrational', unless he has changed A LOT or has been compromised somehow ( by marriage to the media, both figuratively and literally? ) . I did my research ( on Greenspan ) and it has backfired on far.

John Disney
(Fri Jul 25 1997 15:05)
For Lan Man - For info RSA costs INCLUDE admin costs - They include
everything but capex and tax. If Barrick is put on the same basis as
RSA mines, their cost will be in the same order as dries and maybe higher
than beatrix. ( But that seems like one whale of a lot of admin costs )

(Fri Jul 25 1997 15:14)
Institutional Greenspan
WFS: I think you have to make the distinction between Greenspan the person and Greenspan the Chairman of the Fed. Greenspan the person probably has not changed that much. However, he would have had to accept that as Chairman he would have to reflect institutional attitudes and not personal ones. It is said in recent Business Week articles that he carries a lot of clout in the FOMC - which once you *despin* the message may mean that he is a captive and soon to be sacrificial scapegoat of his institution.

Comments from anyone else out in the peanut gallery??

(Fri Jul 25 1997 15:56)
@ There Auta Be A Law...
Let's get this boring day over with. The XAU and HUI Indexes are putting me to sleep.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 16:09)
XAU blipped up at the end of the session...up 1.06....

George Cole
(Fri Jul 25 1997 16:25)
Ides of August
Gold stocks rallied the last 5 minutes, but still did not do well considering $2.70 jump in bullion.

August has frequently witnessed the beginnings of major military and financial debacles. World War 1 began in August 1914. Hitler invaded Poland on September 1, 1939 -- close enough. The stock market peaked in August 1929 and August 1987, and crashed in October of both those years. The Gulf of Tonkin incident that helped get America involved in the Vietnam war occurred in August 1964.

So a major financial trend change next month does have historical precedent.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 16:33)
@ So Much For That:
Has anyone noticed that the XAU and HUI Indexes are back at and/or above when the news of the Aussies gold sales story can out. So much for that story/noise. What more can you show me? : )

(Fri Jul 25 1997 16:37)
@ So Much For That:
Has anyone noticed that the XAU and HUI Indexes are back at and/or above where they were when the Aussies gold sale story came out. So much for that news/noise. What more can you show me? : )

(Fri Jul 25 1997 16:46)

bw: Your ( 11:50 ) was good informative post.
Wonder when investors on WS will realise that silver and some of the silver miners are at bargain prices?
Short time ago, read something about using silver paste ( 90% ) in solar panels.
Bubba and spotted-Al are behind clean air and even I have to agree with that. TEP the utility -their tech division- is considering copper film in such panels. Hope silver gets its fair share of the market.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 16:54)
To All: When you have time you might want visit the web site called "The Contrarian's View". Not gold specific but interesting take on stock market and economy.

Available at:

"The Contrarian's View has been published since July 1986. Its author, Nick Chase, correctly anticipated the 1987 stock-market Crash and 1989 minicrash, and avoided the 1990 and 1994 bear markets ( and bailed out too early, missing the 1995-97 blowoff ) ."

If you visit this web page, be sure to read "Debt Overhang".

(Fri Jul 25 1997 16:58)
Fund Buying propels gold
New York--Jly 25--COMEX Aug gold settled up $2.70 at $326.50 per ounce after a midday fund buy pushed the contract bursting
through buy stops and sending it higher still. Gold was able to hang onto most of its gains, in sharp contrast to recent sessions in
which the metal climbed in early trade only to take the round trip to its lows. * * *

(Fri Jul 25 1997 17:28)
Korean sources predict full scale currency crisis.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 17:29)
I think you'll find Steve Kaplan's site, very helpful re CRB Index,
regarding your second question, I'm not in a position to advise you. ( just the fact that I'm not offering any advise, is a plus to you! )

(Fri Jul 25 1997 17:33)
It sounds like its snowballing, it'll be interesting if it spills over to South America...any news links for that part of the world?

(Fri Jul 25 1997 17:36)
Korean industrialists demand government assistance.

trader ed
(Fri Jul 25 1997 17:37)
For those of you, who like me, are frequently at a loss to interpret some of the acronyms seen here, like IMHO, FWIW and TGIF, try this site:
If you can't find it here, you may be SOOL.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 17:42)
Shanghai has NO NEWS about the 11 Asian bankers meeting. Is it the Baskerville syndrome? Lead story about Chinese Foreign Exchange trading.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 17:47)
NOMERCY: I could only find this so far......SO PAULO, 07/25/97 - The Band-B concessions are expected to bring in $1.2 billion in foreign
funds in August and will help the government balance its foreign accounts, without causing an impact
on monetary expansion. These funds will help finance the deficit in the government's current
accounts. A spokesman for the Central Bank said that foreign funding is entering Brazil at an
intensive pace, and the country's international reserves rose $2.198 billion in the first 22 days of the
month. Foreign investment funds in June recorded withdrawals amounting to R$ 177 million, down
63.44% compared to the end of May. ( SB )

(Fri Jul 25 1997 17:58)
The xau may is dragging, but the resource laden VSE was up +5.19 to 806.81 today

(Fri Jul 25 1997 17:59)
Asia and the Western blocks

I really appreciate the Asians indicating that they will solve their own problems - I hope they do so.
First it means that they will not owe their souls to the western Banker/Corporate society; and second it means they will be free conditions that taking on deceptive loans will impose on them.
I believe that the entire NAFTA group and the EU are under such rules.
Their politicians, under such cicumstances have their hands tied by this Banking/Corporate power that controls their actions, these are essentially the New Monarch's that rule the western world.
Its essentially freedom to be destroyed. TAI

(Fri Jul 25 1997 18:03)
NOMERCY: This from Argentina in Spanish. Two stories of interest. One about Argentines who feel they are going to get some of the Nazi gold in Switzerland. The second story is about fears of a Brazilian devaluation and the flood of cheap Brazilian products that will flood Argentina as a result. They feel it is only a matter of time before it happens....... ( Hope someone will check my translation )

(Fri Jul 25 1997 18:15)
mucho gracias senor ( sp ) . Perhaps we have somebody in our group that can tranlate this article ( sounds like the're scared that Brazil would face a recession, due to their currency devaluation )
Temor en la UIA por una posible
recesin en Brasil

Los industriales saben que es improbable que se
devale el real, pero estn preocupados por una
eventual invasin de productos brasileos en el

Tras los sacudones en las bolsas de San Pablo yRo de Janeiro, los industriales
argentinos agrupados en la UIA se pusieron en guardia y desde esta semana
comenzaron a desplegar una estrategia que tiene por objetivo lograr que las
autoridades locales protejan al sector ante un eventual cambio en las reglas de
juego del mayor socio del Mercosur.

Los empresarios industriales no le temen slo a una posible devaluacin, sino
tambin a lo que Javier Tizado -el vicepresidente ejecutivo del poderoso grupo
Techint- denomin como "una lluvia de exportaciones brasileas" en nuestro pas,
como consecuencia de la modificacin en los trminos del intercambio.

Jos Ignacio de Mendiguren, el secretario de la UIA se lo explic a
LaNacion:"Despus de la devaluacin puede venir una recesin, las empresas
brasileas van a estar con exceso de stock y entonces se va a dar vuelta el
"tubo", que hoy estaba inclinado hacia Brasil, esto podra ser mortal para sectores
como los textiles", indic.

Cristiano Rattazzi, presidente de Fiat Auto, tambin confirm a La Nacin que el
mayor temor era el de una recesin.

"La industria automotriz sera una de las ms perjudicadas", complet.

Es que hoy, para los empresarios agrupados en la central fabril, el temor ya dej
de ser el efecto caipiri nha, o la desventaja que pueda ocasionar un tipo de
cambio que encarezca los productos argentinos, sino la posible avalancha de
mercadera desde el socio mayor, desencadenadas por una recesin en el
mercado interno brasileo.

"El problema es que con 25 por ciento de devaluacin, sin haber aranceles entre
la Argentina y Brasil la situacin de competencia bsicamente en las industrias se
distorsiona tremendamente", explic anteayer Javier Tizado.

Instalando un tema difcil

Aunque nunca lo van a admitir pblicamente los industriales saben que, en el
fondo, estn pidiendo un poco de proteccionismo para sus empresas.

Por eso su plan es instalar el debate y comenzar un sutil trabajo de persuasin en
los ms altos niveles de la conduccin econmica y la opinin pblica.

El plan de la UIA qued definido en la ltima reunin de Comit Ejecutivo de
esta semana, donde se resolvi plantearle a Roque Fernndez los temores por la
situacin en Brasil.

La cita con el jefe de Economa se concret el mircoles, y tambin participaron
Carlos Rodrguez y el secretario de Industria, Alieto Guadagni.

Por la UIA estuvieron Claudio Sebastiani, Alberto Alvarez Gaiani, Juan Groppo
Vilar, Jos Mendiguren y Sergio Einaudi.

Uno de los asistentes a esa reunin asegur que el Ministro de Economa "se
mostr ms receptivo que en otras ocasiones a los reclamos industriales" y,
adems, asegur que "Roque si bien no lo reconoce ante nosotros, sabe bien que
el real est sobrevaluado y que las exportaciones argentinas dependen mucho de
la relacin actual entre el peso y el real".

Segundo paso

El segundo paso se concret ayer, cuando Claudio Sebastiani, Alberto Alvarez
Gaiani y Mediguren fueron a hablar con el embajador Luiz Felipe Seixas Correas,
que les asegur que no haba que temer por los ltimos vaivenes en las bolsas de
Ro y San Pablo.

Ahora los industriales se reunirn con sus pares de la Confederacin Nacional de
Industrias brasileas para ponerse al tanto de la situacin interna del socio mayor
del bloque.

-La Unin Industrial no est pidiendo medidas proteccionistas?, pregunt
LaNacion a Claudio Sebastiani, presidente de la UIA.

-No estamos pidiendo proteccionismo, de ninguna manera_, neg,
previsiblemente el empresario.

Sin embargo, el titular de la UIA admiti que desde hace tiempo que propone
"preparar medidas gatillo" para el caso de una devaluacin u otro tipo de
restriccin comercial desde Brasil.

Martn Boerr

(Fri Jul 25 1997 18:18)
Thailand defaults on rubber deal. Pope denies involvement.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 18:20)
All the JUMPING DRAGONS gathered together in THE LAND OF DRANGON!tHE FUTURE is look more exciting a head!try this:

(Fri Jul 25 1997 18:21)
trader ed: Thank you for the acronym site, it is priceless and the humor of it all is marvelous! CUL ;- )

(Fri Jul 25 1997 18:31)
South Africa mining woes
Victim of low gold price, once one of the world's largest mine is on the point of closure
July 25, 1997

End looms for
troubled ERPM

Andi Spicer
Mining and Resources Editor

Johannesburg -- ERPM, the troubled mine in the Randgold stable and
once one of the largest and most profitable gold mines in the world, is on
the point of closure, a victim of the low gold price, the company said

"While management has made certain proposals to government and
discussions are taking place, there remains a strong possibility of ceasing
operations in the near future," the company said in a cautionary statement
issued yesterday.

It added that "shareholders of ERPM are advised that, as a result of the
low gold price and lower than expected underground yields, the company
is operating at a loss with no reasonable possibility of generating profits in
the foreseeable future".

Peter Flack, Randgold's chairman, refused to comment yesterday. The
mine provides jobs for about 6,000 people.

Earlier this month, the Benoni Gold Mining Company, a surface dump
re-treatment company which is a subsidiary of ERPM, said it was closing
almost immediately.

Lionel Hewitt, ERPM's chairman, said then Randgold was reassessing its
involvement with ERPM.

ERPM has now issued four cautionaries recently, and Randgold has
indicated it will not renew its management contract with the mine when it
comes up for renewal.

"There are only two ways ERPM can be saved now: either the
government supports the mine financially or there is a substantial fall in
the value of the rand, both of which are unlikely," Emil Morsett, the head
of mining and metals research at Paribas in London, said yesterday.

"This is a difficult political decision and, if the government does decide to
support the mine, it would set a precedent for other mines," Morsett said.

Randgold has been reducing its holding in the mine recently to about 1

In 1989, the government guaranteed loans made to ERPM, which now
means the state is the largest shareholder in the mine.

ERPM had an estimated life of about seven years and produced on
average about eight to nine tons a year, about 15 percent of Randgold's
managed gold production. Randgold ended on the JSE yesterday at
R16,50, up 5c.

Frank Nxumalo reports about 3,000 workers at ERPM allied to the
National Union of Mineworkers ( NUM ) were facing retrenchment,
Madoda Vilakazi, the NUM regional co-ordinator, said yesterday.

Vilakazi said the NUM's proposals for a way forward was for the
company to meet the union's demand for a minimum wage of R1,000 a

The union was also pinning its hopes on a possible government subsidy of
R2 million a month after it met Penuell Maduna, the mineral and energy
affairs minister, this week. "We will be meeting company management
on Monday. We do

hope they will come with something better, because up to now they have
been pleading poverty all the way," Vilakazi said.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 18:33)
to all- the following article is another just more proof that we must be close to a bottom in gold. In 1993 the top fund, not just the top gold fund, the THE TOP FUND was Lexington Strategic Gold Fund and the reason was their holdings of Western Areas. Then Western areas sold most of their gold forward for 8 years, then I sold the stock [got my own fund], now maybe it is time to buy it back?

My goood friend Brett Kibble also is director of Randgold, a top SA mining house.

25 July 1997


Calling gold's bottom?

Closing much of the hedge may have contributed to the
bounce in bullion

JCI flagship mine Western Areas, which shook the market in
January 1995 when it sold forward all expected production
until March 2004, has bought back heavily.

The mine sold forward 7,3moz gold at between US$380/oz
and $390/oz but has now bought back 1,6moz at about
$320/oz. Western Areas' activities may have helped trigger the
recent jump in the price back above $320/oz. Gold reached
$328/oz on Tuesday.

Chairman Brett Kebble says restructuring the hedge leaves the
same protection as before on any downside in the gold price
but gives a 70% exposure to any upside.

"Previously Western Areas was 100% hedged but after this it
will only be 30% hedged. It will get 70% of the benefit of
improved gold prices which we expect will result from rising
dollar gold prices and a resumption in the weakening of the
rand against the dollar," he says.

Kebble adds the restructuring also has a positive effect on
Western Areas' cash position. It gets rid of the mine's debt
and the need for medium-term funding for the South Deep

In April, JCI management estimated Western Areas could be
about R200m in debt by the end of the calendar year. Kebble
says that's no longer the case.

That must improve the market's assessment of JCI's most
important asset. The success of Western Areas and its South
Deep expansion is fundamental to JCI's plans to restructure.

By: Brendan Ryan

| Top of page |

(Fri Jul 25 1997 18:41)
from the peanut gallery
GFD: My take on Greenspan is the same as Richard Russell's of Dow Theory Letters. He loves the limelight and will do whatever it takes to stay in it, even compromise what he really believes as you surmise. And yes, in the end the intstitutions will get him. That said, he has been a better than average Fed Chairperson.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 18:44)
They wanted to reduce rates to stimulate the economy and alievate the growing unemployment, and they can't...they chose to back their currency at the expense of creating jobs...more troubles ahead for them...shouldn't have sold their gold!

(Fri Jul 25 1997 18:49)
I got this caption from Newsearch
Are they referring to you?

(Fri Jul 25 1997 19:03)
Some contrarian news for the CB conspirators.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 19:30)
Dow/Gold ratio 24.85 tonight. It is absolutely astounding that the Dow was up 4 out of 5 trading days, hitting a NEW HIGH on each one, and adding more than 200 points for the week. That would seem to be a stock owners dream week but the Dow/Gold ratio remained below its previous high set on July 11th at 25.22. It tells me that 25 ounces of gold are more desireable than 30 shares of stock in the subliminal mind of the stock buying public. Obviously, I can not claim that we have seen the top of the stock bull market based upon the results of two weeks. It certainly bolsters my confidence in saying that the top is somewhere very near here. Of course gold could drop more from this point and the ratio would continue to improve in favor of gold if stocks dropped faster and farther.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 19:30)
as we in New Zealand have known for years the Aussies are none too quick and basically a bunch of convict siblings. I think they may have got a wake up call in Shanghai today or then again maybe they'll side with dollarbill.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 19:32)
@ The Public Library
I've just spent 40 plus minutes on the phone with a Schwaab broker and two margin people at Schwaab. Apparently effective today, the margin requirements for shares under $10.00 has changed. Drastically, in my opinion. Because of these changes I found that I have been forced to sell shares to meet these new margin requirements. ( which again became effective today ) . One moment I find that my Buying Power was in good shape they next everything has changes.... My question, are there any others out there that have Schaab margin account with share prices under $10.00 that have been receiving unexpected phone calls because of these changes at Schwaab... It seems that the bottom line is don't buy stocks which are priced under $10.00. This is my interpretation of the events which are taking place. I would appreciate any feedback from others who find themselves in this situation. Thanks.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 19:35)
Yes very interesting. I wonder if SORROWS is happy with himself now, he's managed to polarise almost an entire fragmented continent against him and his ilk and single-handedly usher in the New World Order of East vs West.
He'd better have his gold longs on because the Dragons breath is gonna torch his testicles if his shorts are too short.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 19:36)
Savage - I've been on vacation for a couple of weeks. Looking back July 7 looks like capitulation on the downside. The funds are holding up, not great but firm. The Russian thing didn't kill the market which is good news. Looks like at least a short term low. The XAU has some resistance between 97-98, if it closes above 100 we should see 110-111. Aug. Gold needs to get though 332 for a move to 350 then 360. Next week I'd buy Dec Gold at 326 with with a 2 or 3 dollar stop with a potential 360. ABX is holding long term support like a champ except for the July 7 wash out the chart looks good. Right now I still have my positions in ABX and XAU and looking for another low risk entry into gold futures.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 19:38)
As A Follow Up:
Follwing up my prior posting, does anyone interepret these changes in margin requirements for shares under $10.00 as a signal from Wall Street that the market is about to top out??? And what evey happen to the idea of helping the small investor??

(Fri Jul 25 1997 19:43)
Bryon - Two weeks ago I recieved a message from Schwab that margin was going from 50% to 35%. I called the desk and asked what was going on. They told me " The company got burned in 1987 and ended up in the collection business, they didn't want to get into that again".

Elliot Ness
(Fri Jul 25 1997 19:44)
@the corner of Cermak & Cicero Ave.
University of North Carolina Medical School computer services 919-966-1325. Ask for site administrator Scott Green

(Fri Jul 25 1997 19:49)
@ Burnt:
APH: That was one of the comments, more or less, that was stated to me. Something about having to take losses in the past. Interesting that you mentioned 1987. Again, I interepret these changes as a signal of a TOP. ( IMHO )

(Fri Jul 25 1997 19:56)
@Timing is Everything (Well Almost)
It is interesting regarding the timing of these changes. Now with many gold company shares at new multiey year lows and many of the share prices under $10.00 and thus great bargin it has now become more difficult for the small investor to step up to the plate and buy. I wonder if the margin requirments for the big funds have changed?? As you can see I am not a happy camper tonight.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 19:57)
BYRON, APH: I recall in 1987 that they had one large loss from one individual who wrote naked options and stiffed them for quite a bit. I don't think it was a widespread problem. If other brokers are doing the same, or if their bankers, either on their own or due to pressure from the Fed, are changing margin requirements without making a public announcement, that is big news. The Fed could be afraid that an official order would start a selling panic and they prefer an orderly decline. Just guessing.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 20:01)
Byron: Initial margin on spoos also went up 25% last week. Margins on commodity futurtes are pretty mathematical though. But increased margins DO tend to decrease overall positions for speculators large or small as opposed to commercials.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 20:05)
Donald: In 1987 my office was in the financial district of San Francisco ( Sutter Street ) and I saw PSE option traders who completely blew out and left millons in debts. I doubt they were clearing through Schwab, but still it was not a pretty sight.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 20:09)
@ A Vist To The Family
Donald: Yes, I recall reading a story in the Wall Street Journal about how Schwaab had to send some executives to Asia ( was it Taiwan? ) to try to collect some monies from the patriarch of the family.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 20:12)
AUROPHILE: The Schwab case sticks in my mind for some reason. As I recall he may have gone to court with the defense that "it was their fault, they should have known better than to let me get in that deep" I don't recall the outcome.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 20:12)
@ The Past
Aurophile: Did you say Sutter Street??? Any chance you knew a Mr. Ralph H. Burr who had an office at 110 Sutter for 40 years. He was a financial consultant, among many other things. : )

(Fri Jul 25 1997 20:22)
translation for Donald
This was your article, nomercy:
Temor en la UIA por una posible
recesin en Brasil

Los industriales saben que es improbable que se
devale el real, pero estn preocupados por una
eventual invasin de productos brasileos en el
nomercy...... the article translates as follows:
Fear in the UIA for a possible recession in Brazil.
The industrialists know that is improbable that the *real* will be devalued, but they ( Argentinians ) are worried about an eventual invasion of brazilian products into the country ( Argentina ) .

As with most spanish texts, the exact meaning is a contradiction in terms.........i.e. improbable devaluation and eventual invasion of products ( due to a devaluation ) . It's nothing new, and has already happened many times in the past, and in BOTH directions.


(Fri Jul 25 1997 20:38)
@ Closing Time
Library is closing is 20 minutes. I'll check back tomorrow morning for any responses. Good night.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 20:47)
Translation for Nomercy.....Oh my.....forgot to paste in the rest of it.
Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 18:15
nomercy ( donald ) :
mucho gracias senor ( sp ) . Perhaps we have somebody in our group that
can tranlate this article ( sounds like the're scared that Brazil would face a
recession, due to their currency devaluation )

Temor en la UIA por una posible
recesin en Brasil

Los industriales saben que es improbable que se
devale el real, pero estn preocupados por una
eventual invasin de productos brasileos en el

nomercy...... the article translates as follows:
Fear in the UIA for a possible recession in Brazil.
The industrialists know that is improbable that the *real* will be devalued, but they ( Argentinians ) are worried about an eventual invasion of brazilian products into the country ( Argentina ) .

As with most spanish texts, the exact meaning is a contradiction in terms.........i.e. improbable devaluation and eventual invasion of products ( due to a devaluation ) . The rest of the article deals with the effects of a 25% devaluation of the Brazilian money, and how that would cause an immediate recession in Argentina as its industries would be put out of work due to unfair competition because there are no trade vbarriers ( tariffs ) on goods for countries within the Mercosur pact ( NAFTA, South Inc. ) Hmmmm.... now where have we heard this scenario before. Undercurrent ( which between the lines is always more important in Spanish than what is actually said ) is that the industrialists will
urge their socialist goverment into restructuring the Mercosur ( i.e., apply tarrifs to protect the factories ) .

My note: remember that Brazil is a true island needs no one.

The rest is rhetoric, and the reassurance that the person in charge is preparing THE TRIGGER for a plan in case of a Brazilian devaluation.

My thoughts: Mercosur has different partners with completly different interests, objectives, and requirements, which in any business are the ingredients for failure.

Mercosur, as with the EMU and NAFTA, are all doomed to failure.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 20:50)
CMAX: Gracias. Hace cinquenta anos desde aprendo espanol, uso vez a vez pero olvido muchas de las palabras.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 20:53)
the big secret revealed
Ted....... thanks for the kind words on the back-to-back posts! Actually, I compose them offline with my word processor as I read through the Kitco message traffic. That way, I can respond "real-time" to a post I find interesting. Then when I log back onto the internet, I slam-dunk the posts all at once. I find my surfing here is very irregular during the day/week/month. One of these days I'm gonna have a job where I can surf from work!

(Fri Jul 25 1997 20:54)
today's dumb question
To's my dumb question of the week. If you check out the Bema site

You will see that they have hedged their forward sales at $407 per oz!! The question, who is the buyer at those prices? Speculators or end users? Or......??

(Fri Jul 25 1997 20:58)
APH...welcome back..I enjoy all the posts on this Kitco site..yet I find
yours among the most astute. I also own significant shares of ABX..
nearly had heart failure when Aussies dumped tons of gold on the
market...ABX slipped below 20 ( a long term support level dating back to
the early 90s ) ..I'm really not sure I should hold personal belief is that it's going to take a spike in inflation ( to my way of thinking...not on the horizon ) or a catastrophic event ( read: war or belligerency ) to give
a boost to the gold market.

I'm very tempted by the oil stocks...although they do seem somewhat
overpriced...just got news that Texaco's splitting 2-for-1 and increasing
their dividend. I can't see oil stocks losing their value over the next
several years, possibly decades.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 21:06)
APH: I too say welcome back! Ya, big stuff "coming down" ( or going up ) .

(Fri Jul 25 1997 21:19)
Twenty+ days old but a very good and timely read.
Stephen Roach: Angst in global village

Originally published: THURSDAY JULY 3 1997

Workers worldwide are reacting against harsh corporate
restructuring and economic austerity

The policies of austerity are on their way out. That's the message of the
political upheaval of the 1990s that has shaken the US, Japan, Canada,
Britain and - most recently - France. In all cases, the electoral revolt has its
roots in the angst of hard-pressed workers. Voters are rebelling against
two over-arching forces: corporate restructuring and the anti-inflationary
zeal behind monetary and fiscal austerity.

Reeling from the impact of these forces, workers are demanding relief.
Until now, elected leaders have done little to assuage their concerns. But
that could well be about to change. If it does, it could seriously disrupt
world financial markets.

The restructuring dynamic was inevitable. As regulation gave way to
deregulation and privatisation, and cross-border trade and foreign direct
investment took off, the net result was an extraordinary increase in global
competition. The demise of communism and the resulting entry of nearly
2bn inhabitants from China and the former Soviet Union into the
free-market system has upped the competitive ante all the more.

In response, once-bloated corporate bureaucracies are being disbanded,
setting in motion a process of global rationalisation. The resulting wave of
corporate restructuring has stretched the fabric of the social contract that
had long held in check the power struggle between workers, managers and
elected politicians. The worker has lost out.

At the same time, policymakers have taken dead aim at inflation. After the
"great inflation" of the 1970s and early 1980s, monetary and fiscal
discipline became the mantra of the past decade. In 1997, it is tempting to
declare victory.

Inflation has receded to its lowest rate in a generation, not only in the US,
Japan and Germany, but also in such countries as Brazil, Italy, and China -
countries long noted for extremely high inflation.

Such success has not come without cost. Courtesy of the new-found
religion of monetary and fiscal restraint, price stability has gone hand in
hand with decidedly sub-par economic growth. The worker has again lost

Restructuring and austerity are powerful enough in themselves to have had
a profound impact on the economy and on financial markets. But the
combination of these two forces may well be the defining factor of a new
tension in the global economy.

Workers who have been displaced - or frightened - by corporate
restructuring have not seen their fortunes improved by sluggish growth.
This has given rise to a new class of victims, the structurally unemployed
who have little hope of regaining their former standard of living. But
survivors are also concerned about their lagging rewards, or fearful that
they may be next to suffer a downsizing.

No nation in the industrial world has been spared from these
developments. In countries with rigid labour markets, the result has been
soaring unemployment, as in Germany, or massive under-employment, as
in Japan. In nations with more flexible labour markets such as the US there
has been a stagnation of real wages and a dramatic worsening in the
equality of income distribution.

I have long been a believer in what might be called the Newtonian
principles of macro change: that every powerful trend creates an equally
powerful counter-trend. Hence, I now worry about the possibility of a
worker backlash that would see economic power shift from capital back to

For the moment, the hard-pressed American worker has been mollified by
cyclical revival. But the US is still ripe for backlash. Business profits are
surging and the rate of return on corporate capital is at a 29-year high, yet
real wages have been virtually stagnant for nearly 15 years. Labour is
surely on the verge of clamouring for a larger slice of the pie.

For the moment, the backlash has been manifested in demands for job
security. The perils of downsizing and outsourcing have moved to the top
of the agenda in several recent US collective-bargaining disputes.

By contrast, European workers have drawn a line in the sand. Here as well
concerns are focused on job security. This is also true of recent outbreaks
of worker unrest in South Korea and Argentina. But whether the backlash
shows up in the form of real wage increases or resistance to layoffs and
outsourcing, the ultimate macro impact is largely the same: businesses will
no longer have carte blanche to pursue the aggressive cost-cutting that has
helped them boost profit margins. As the ability to contain labour costs
recedes, the rewards to capital will begin to sag.

For the time being, complacent investors are ignoring the omens. Their
reaction is understandable, as the twin forces of restructuring and policy
austerity have created an extraordinarily positive climate for financial
markets. Investors have been rewarded beyond their wildest dreams.

In the US, corporate restructuring has been a big element in boosting
equity prices. And policy austerity has led to a sustained disinflation that
has reduced interest rates and prompted a rise in the bond markets. This
outstanding performance in the financial markets has become increasingly
global. The assumption that European companies will restructure has
driven European equity markets higher over the past year.

But this investor paradise will be at risk if the Newtonian counter-trend
begins to play out. Central banks, such as those of Japan and Germany,
are attempting to ease the pain of austerity by providing excess liquidity
through keeping real short-term interest rates artificially low. Given a
generally sluggish growth climate in the world's leading industrial
economies, this has frothed up financial markets all the more.

The day will come, however, when the medicine starts to work and real
economic revival will begin to absorb this excess liquidity. As interest rates
rise in response, the liquidity pump can only slow. And that's when frothy
financial markets will face their sternest test.

But if the monetary policy remedy does not work, the onus of resolution
could shift from central banks to populist and opportunistic politicians.
Measured policy responses may give way to the far more destructive
"remedies" of protectionism and reflationary fiscal and monetary policies.

Like it not, the angst of the worker challenges the very foundations of this
glorious bull market. Little wonder that investors have been steadfast in
their denial of even the slightest possibility of the ascendancy of labour.
Trapped in their comfort zones, few will see it coming.

The author is chief economist and director of global economics at
Morgan Stanley.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 21:36)
Mike Sheller-Today I felt the universe: It was death & love & more than the millions of miles of love that the world would ever know.Oh Bless God why do I feel this way ? "Is God upon me or is fate the wheeler of time?Do I turn to dust? Do I become a GAMBLER OF THE ODDS OF TIME? In Hell shall we flourish for greed sublime?Oh God give me some time.Happy Trails.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 21:38)
This from Manila. "Investors afraid of whole Asia region"

(Fri Jul 25 1997 21:44)
Mooney-Glad To see Your Still Alive? You Should Post more Often.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 21:44)
(Where's BT now)
Does anyone know why ABN and EBN show gold down $7.50 and silver down .
07? Is this some kind of weekend misprint?

(Fri Jul 25 1997 21:47)
@Central Banks and gold

Thank you very much for your very very instructive site at 19:03


(Fri Jul 25 1997 21:53)
@the cellar
Kiwi, I congratulate you and your fellow countrymen on a job well done
with negotiations with the BRA. You certainly jumped in where fools ( read
Aussie politicians ) fear to tread. My My My are not the Aussies looking
a bit fornicated at the moment. Anyhow all the best in your endeavours
with PNG and perhaps Kiwi miners will have great fortune in their up
coming ventures on PNG. I say lad, good stuff all round!

Aussie Weenie Wacker
(Fri Jul 25 1997 22:09)
with stubbie and racist attitude in hand
Der! What happened?

(Fri Jul 25 1997 22:09)
Donald :

Thanks for the Roach article. I have taken the liberty of reprinting the two concluding paragraphs. I have a comment to make, which is that in the event of a dispute between the Central Banks and the politicians of a country, the politicans are sure to win. Reflationary policies are therefore around the corner, starting with Germany and then the rest of Europe.

"The day will come, however, when the medicine starts to work and real economic revival will begin to absorb this excess liquidity. As interest rates rise in response, the liquidity pump can only slow. And that's when frothy financial markets will face their sternest test.

But if the monetary policy remedy does not work, the onus of resolution could shift from central banks to populist and opportunistic politicians. Measured policy responses may give way to the far more destructive "remedies" of protectionism and reflationary fiscal and monetary policies."

(Fri Jul 25 1997 22:17)
Here is some stuff for the Contrarians.
We have to check both sides of the coin...


(Fri Jul 25 1997 22:35)

Following is yet another article pronouncing the death of gold. With such negative sentiment abounding it is getting becoming more and more likely that July 7 saw the bottom.

Regards, Milhouse

(Fri Jul 25 1997 22:45)
APH: Did you really mean Dec @ 326?....Good to hear from you. WDL: Can you say "exogenous"?

(Fri Jul 25 1997 22:46)
19:03 originally posted on SI GoldDigger by Searle. Some discussion followed.

(Fri Jul 25 1997 22:56)
Thirty year bond chart. Auroelf ( ? ) I re-drew the lines for you. :- )

With regards to this inflation issue, it seems that most are basking in the glow of 'low' inflation without asking, why is inflation so low? The answer seems to be cheap ( as in low price ) imported goods. This is aided and abetted by currency games. This will end badly.

Byron -- When you mentioned the margin requirment changes, it caused me to check those pesky Schwab folks and my account there. I have not received any E-mail or telephone calls from them regarding margin rule changes. I do know that there is a class action suit against Schwab regarding their third market dealings. It seems that they 'kept' a little for themselves. So much for those 'price' improvements.

Now, if we could get a nice twenty Dollar pop in gold... Then I could move all of my account out of Schwabee.....

(Fri Jul 25 1997 23:02)
I think abn gave a wrong price!i'm still trading at 326.25 per oz! ( oriental price sat at 11.02 am singapore time ) .

(Fri Jul 25 1997 23:14)
EBN is noted for having the wrong price data on occasion. I just E-Mailed my ISP. I can't get in to the EBN site from home, but I have no problems from work. I just love this technology! NOT! Good night all....

(Fri Jul 25 1997 23:18)
Ok I'll ask the night owls as I got no response from the day shift.
BRU GOLD ( ^bgold ) closed 490.74 around 10:40 am. A +4.33 or .89% about
the same close as spot gold here. Is this correct?

Can BGOLD be used as a hint of the next day's price here in the U.S.?
If not what is the symbol for London gold?

(Fri Jul 25 1997 23:43)
On the way home from work, I heard on a Christian station
( Chuck Misler ) state:
1 ) The Federal Reserve act ( 1913 ) was unconstitutional.
2 ) The Federal reserve is not federal. ( But private )
3 ) the Federal reserve is not a reserve.
Every politician that asked for an audit of the
Federal Reserve, disappeared, usually in a plane crash!
Anyone care to comment on this?

(Fri Jul 25 1997 23:48)
Thanks for the Steve Roach piece. He was so much into the standard inflation/bond think that I had stopped reading him. Not out of disrepect, just out of weariness.
As many know, I am a long wave geek. In WW II the US was under wage/price controls and none now will have argued with that posture although many did at the time. My feeling is that WW II was a disinflationary time for that reason in the same sense that the 1990's have been. Control. Overarching institutional conrol. Feds then, corporations now. Both have been crusades in a sense, during which labor was constrained for the greater good. The safeguarding of the republic, if you will.
Meanwhile in both times the monetary policy was quite expansive. We may think that fiscal policy has been restrictive in our own day--as compared to the expense of WW II-- but has it really been so? Not really. The on-budget deficit is declining during the past two years, but the fiscal flood seems less severe only because of that, not when looking at the total bill for the 1980's and 1990's. And I will not discuss the off-budget mess.
My point is that in many ways the US economy is in much the same position as in 1944-45. Control, understood in many ways, has restrained labor and prices in the battle to achieve important national goals. But just as the English worker rejected Churchill after the war and just as the American workers rejected restraint after the war was won, so too are we about to enter upon a new road. The comfortable concept of complacent and terrified workers, about to be reduced to Korean or Malaysian standards, is coming to an end. So too is the idea of ever slower growing price levels. The pantries and warehouses are nearly bare in many industrial commodities. The just-in-time and do-it-tomorrow mentality amongst both purchasers and sellers is winding down. Prices have not been declining. They have been going up.But that fact has been obscured ACTIVELY and even pro-actively by both capital and government as both have reached to extend their financial strengths.
I have thought for some time that we were in a period similar to WW II in the financial sense that interest rates were bottoming after the world wide recession/depression of the 1980's and that prices have also bottomed, first in 1986 and now later in 1996-97. This is very much like the pattern of the 1930's and early 1940's.
In essence what we have seen is that both corporations AND government have strengthened their balance sheets at the expense of the individual. This is all well and good, but in any society it is not sustainable, least of all in a democracy. While some have benefitted from the rise of stock markets, this is no different from the 500+% increase in equity markets from 1932 to 1946. Some have benefitted, but many have not. Clinton, the stealth Republican, has presided over this wondrous event by making the right noises for the benefit of the underclass while assisting in the enrichment of the upperclass. I have no problem with this, not only because I have done very well thank you, but because the capital structure of ths country was in a difficult position in the 1970's and needed renewal for the long term survival of the economy. It has regenerated beyond the hopes and dreams of most of us. is in the process of cycling again. It is time to mark down the financial assets and mark up the physical assets. The easy ( or hard, depending upon viewpoint ) times are done. Now comes the payback. The enormous money flows will switch from paper to real assets as demand for stuff and demand for wages increases. It needn't all fly at once. It could be a very gradual process. But it is and will be changing, and most will still be braying about disinflation when it is really inflation that will be the concern. In this sense the Fed is anachronistic. they have been bleating about inflation for years when none was to be seen. My guess is that they will begin to worry that pressures in the economny will lead to deflation. This is at least how they will cover their real tracks as the electorate begins to clamor for higher wages. ( And this may be the reason for the current disinformation campaign regarding deflation. ) What usuallly happens politically in this emerging period is that the authorities begin to try to loosen monetary policy to accomodate the worker/voters without damping economic growth. In the process they worsen the inflationary trends already starting.
These are the implications I see in the events that Steve Roach details.