Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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klgjilfjor [q
(Mon Jul 28 1997 00:08)
Hello Jin:

By my calculation, you've seen a 37% increase in the past 25 days. I think that the Gold traders will wait for a pull back ONLY if they are sure gold isn't going to continue upwards before a pull back starts.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 00:09)
Pluto......... you are technically correct that Mike Sheller did not hit his Silver prediction. You did not mention, however, any of his other predictions that either hit the mark or did not. He called a good one with the Saudi oil deal with Iran, for example. You are not keeping score? Shame on you! [[BG]]

It's very easy to wag the tail on any given prediction here on Kitco. The key is to establish a track record on our prognosticators. The only consistent tracking I've seen is with Deaner - he even tracks his own predictions. Although he sometimes heavily hedges his predictions, he none-the-less has a very impressive track record. I'll give him a free plug:

(Mon Jul 28 1997 00:10)
"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I . . . I took the one less traveled by,
and that has made all the difference." ----- Robert Frost, The Road
Not Taken

(Mon Jul 28 1997 00:12)
Okee dokee, here's my 2 cents worth on this whole "great economy" thing and why the Dow is so high.

A vast majority of the companies have gone through a painful downsizing. And to their credit, there was much dead wood that needed chopped out. I know one company, for example, that does all their copying at a Kinko's across the parking lot. Why? Kinko's machines are never down for repair. The quality is better and more consistent. The "time wasted" to go on a "copying run" is about the same. And they don't pay for the infrastructure of copiers and the resultant down time. ( For you non-USA lurkers, Kinkos is a chain of "office stores" that are open 24 hours. They have color copiers, computers, fax, mail boxes, and just about anything you would need to run a business. Their target market is the home-based business that wants to look cool on paper, but just can't get there from the lame technology hiding in the garage. Kinkos is a boon to those folks with all their high-tech stuff to make it happen. They will even scan onto a disk that photo of the grandkids that you've been dying to post on the internet! )

So, the new generation of managers have finally figured it out that bloated is not better. Shoot, I understand that even GM slimmed down a couple percentage points. IBM is sure looking spiffy in their new buffed out body.'s where us goldbugs are going to come out ahead: as corporate profits continue to rise ( when you get rid of the deadwood in the forest, the resultant growth is phenomenal! ) these born-again managers will sooner or later fall victim to what killed the management before them. Mark my words - the company I mentioned above will eventually get cocky and decide to "splurge" on the luxury of their own herd of copiers, complete with 24 hour tech service. And perhaps a company car or two; or twenty. Maybe a little more give on the ol' expense account. HEY! I thought GM had slimmed down a bit!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 00:18)
Keep e'm coming

If you have the courage to make a prediction, I respect you. You don't have to be right, cause I don't have to accept it; but I sure appreciate it.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 00:22)
According to AP new gold opened up $1.50 in HK

(Mon Jul 28 1997 00:36)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Don't know if anyone is interested in free macrohistorical data, but here's an interesting url Using the search function, I've found time series data there for CPI, unemployment, durable goods orders, GDP, etc. The problem is that much of the data peters out shortly after WWII ( why is that? ) . I'm always interested in data like this, so if anyone knows of alternative sources, particularly sources for more recent data, please post them ( or email me at ) . Thanks.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 00:45)
Intervention & manipulation ( I generally don't like the work manipulation since it generally implies conspiracy ) : Central Bank gold sales have been a gift to precious metal buyers. Gold would have been low anyway, because investors have been flocking into financial assets. Without Central Bank sales, gold could possibly be at $450 instead of $330.

For the time being, all of this selling pressure is like trying to hold a beach-ball deep under water. Once the pressure is released, the ball not only rises to the surface, but it keeps rising out of the water and into the air. Gold is so deeply over-sold that a similar high-pressure rise is likely.

To make a long story short, Central Bank intervention in the form of gold sales has paved the way for a powerful gold rally.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 00:51)
Stocks up-inflation low-real estate markets have backed down. Why? It's the Birth Rate. It's also demographics re a lower birthrate consumes fewer goods and services. Fewer children and one has more money to invest. Most inflation cycles in the past were driven by increased population. As population increases goods and services become scarcer. Also helping the inflation numbers is that so much excess liquidity is going into the stock and bond markets. These markets are being over-inflated but not the general economy. There is an ever increasing supply of goods and services without the increasing population to utilize these goods and services. Because of this decreased population growth the Japanese refer to price destruction. Yes, the third world's population is growing but that is slowing rapidly. The ever expanding markets which benefited big companies is coming to an end. When the markets adjust they may stay adjusted for a very long period; birth rates do not change over night. Nobody can predict the future but money could flow into gold as an over-inflated stock market adjusts to the new birth rate.

Vatican Contact
(Mon Jul 28 1997 01:35)
The Pope is fuming

Reputable sources indicate the Pope is fuming about accusations that the Vatican received Croatian gold taken by the pro-nazi regime, in place there during WWII.
Discussions about advising each catholic family to purchase a minimum one ounce of gold per family member are presently underway.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 01:36)
@another sign ?
From Chris Cadbury:

"2. Chris Cadbury: "short interest ratio fell 12.3% from 7.34 days in mid-June to 6.41 days on Jul. 15, 1997. Such a large monthly drop is dangerous. Similar drops were announced about a week before the 1987 crash and almost a month before the start of the 1990 bear market. Perhaps you know the old Wall Street adage which says, "The bull market is not over until the shorts are run in" .

The Last Goldbug
(Mon Jul 28 1997 02:11)
WW, what are you talking about?

The Pied Piper led the rats to drowning, but were the rats rats by the human interpertation.? Not receiving his intended monetary reward, he led the children to the mountains from whense they disappeared. Beware of do-gooders who profess elitist ideals.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 02:37)
Anyone know?

Where is all this gold moving through South Korea going?

(Mon Jul 28 1997 04:37)
THE LAST GOLDBUG @ ( WW what are you talking about? ) : WW is talking about the "incredibly greedy rich" ( read anyone with more money than he has ) who he seems to have an emotional hatred of, and not changing the Capital Gains tax so "they" can keep taking money out of the mouths of the "working class poor". His terms have a familier ring to them. But then, he reminds us that there are a lot like him out there who have been trained by the NEA teachers we now have in the public schools.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 05:14)
Joburg Gold Index up 15.5 ( 1.6% )

(Mon Jul 28 1997 05:34)
China declares immunity from currency speculation.

Yuan: China can resist speculation against
its currency


By Tony Walker in Beijing

China is in a strong position to resist speculation against its currency, unlike
other Asian economies which have been hit by slower growth, falling
exports and persistent current account deficits, Chinese officials have said.

The official China Daily Business Weekly, quoting officials of the State
Administration of Exchange Control, said China could build on its foreign
exchange reserves and inflow of investment capital to "hedge against the
kind of currency upheaval that hit south-east Asia recently".

The paper noted "large amounts" of foreign capital had flowed into China,
but most was long-term direct investment and could not be withdrawn

China hosted a meeting in Shanghai last week of Asian central bankers,
who vowed to deepen co-ordination to protect regional currencies from

A representative in Beijing of an international lending institution said China
was in a "good position" to avoid fallout from the currency instability in the
Asian region. The fact China had not moved to full capital account
convertibility made it almost impossible for speculators to attack the
currency - the yuan, or renminbi - adding: "This is not a market for

Chinese officials were quoted by China Daily as saying the composition of
the country's foreign debt acted as a further check against speculative
pressures: most of the debt was medium and long-term.

China's foreign exchange reserves stand at about $120bn ( 72bn ) and are
expected to exceed $135bn by the year-end. In the first six months China
registered a trade surplus of $17.7bn compared with about $12bn for the
whole of 1996. China Daily said "strict controls" on inflow and outflow of
capital was a further check against speculation, saying it was impossible for
large amounts of funds to flow out of China to trigger a financial crisis and

Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysia's prime minister, suggested yesterday
that destabilising a country's currency through speculation should be
regarded as a crime, writes James Kynge in Kuala Lumpur.

His comments came after he blamed Mr George Soros, the US financier,
for the recent depreciation of south-east Asian currencies.

"We have worked 30 to 40 years to develop our countries to this level but
along comes a man with a few billion dollars, and in a period of a two
weeks has undone most of the work we have done," Dr Mahathir said.

Malaysia's foreign currency reserves fell M$8.8bn ( 2bn ) during a 15-day
battle with speculators recently. The ringgit, Malaysia's currency, has fallen
significantly, driving short-term interest rates higher and the stock market

Dr Mahathir said Mr Soros had attacked currencies of Asean nations
because he wanted to punish them for admitting Burma, criticised for its
human rights record.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 05:37)
DONALD: Thanks for being a fine tour guide during our drives yesterday
thu dow/gold country!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 05:55)
Hi Leland: I am very excited about that chart that bb fisher made. It shows a lot of history and lets me see the world from a different, I think more meaningful, point of view. Some of the commodity guys should look at their favorites in terms of ounces of gold. Inflation has disguised an awful lot of 20th century reality.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 06:08)
@the scene
Cmax -- Re: Your 21:29 posting. That sums up a many of my thoughts on the subject quite nicely! I wouldn't open a business in this country either! The risk/reward is simply way too high, and then add on all the headaches associated with the paperwork requirements. Why bother? You are also correct in stating that ALL wealth is eventually based on someone actually producing something. All else is just fodder for the flames when production of goods slows. Just let there be a little 'trade' friction or currency problems develop and the people of this country will then find exactly where their favorite items are made! They won't be finding them to be cheaper! They may find them to be simply unavailable! Those are the kind of conditions that used to be great for the new entrepreneurs but under current taxing and regulation BS, no longer. But don't be fooled. If we are expected to compete with third world countries, then we will simply have to bring our wages, taxes, and cost of regulations into line with them. It's the race to the bottom and hi-tech BS be damned.

I personally don't care how much 'currency' the government puts into the pipeline. If the general populace is having a hard time in paying the 'low' prices, then the prices will drop even lower and/or they do with less. One can argue whether that be caused by inflation or deflation. But one can certainly argue that it is sure to be a big cause of rising homelessness, delinquency rates, crime of all manner, and a continual degradation of the once prosperous neighborhoods, towns, and cities. Good paying jobs are the only real answer to the problem in getting purchasing power back into peoples hands, but we keep exporting those. Everyone can't be a 'brain surgeon', I.E. a currently in demand computer geek. And these types should be glad as their wages would fall accordingly! Until a reversal occurs in the policies of this country, the expansion of 'blight' in this country will continue. And until the working wages of people in these other countries rises to the point where they too can become true consumers of what they themselves produce to a much larger extent, then the 'bootstrap' time given by this country via our net importations from them will be for nought. We'll find a whole world that will have to pick its butt off the ground with no one around to help!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 06:08)
DONALD: I agree, B. B. Fisher has shown us what even a "whiff" of
inflation can do.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 06:22)
Good mornin ALL!...EBN Gold down .25 and Silver UP nine cents...

George Cole
(Mon Jul 28 1997 06:25)
gold and news
Gold's reaction to news has VASTLY IMPROVED these past few weeks. This provides a strong signal the trend is changing from bearish to bullish. EBN gold down just 20 cents this morning despite a further surge in the dollar against most currencies. The times, they are a chaingin!

The hostility towards WW by some on this forum puzzles me. A turn to the left politically would be the most bullish thing possible for gold. The unprecedented arrogance of capital today would be replaced by a whiff of fear. And nothing drives gold up like rising fear among the elites.

bb fisher
(Mon Jul 28 1997 06:31)
you are @ being warned
to all:

in the world of welfare state fudge where everything is on the table, language
is one of the surest ways to decipher what is really going on. of course it is necessary to like language, the grammar, syntax and the emotion words and their juxtaposition can create in the mind and heart. most officials who speak for government, corporations and the press are more ignorant than not about the unspoken messages they send every time they open their mouth. true, some know exactly what they are saying and not saying, information, disinformation... well that depends upon the goal desired doesn't it?

let's have a look at one mans remarks to the pres about the current bull market.

my remarks will be in parenthesis.

Sunday July 27 11:27 PM EDT

Clinton Aide Discounts Reported Crash Plan

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - President Clinton's top economic advisor threw cold water Sunday on report that federal regulators had been working on plans to prevent a financial meltdown in case of a major stock market drop.

( ( ( ask yourself:
why is this story coming out NOW to be officially denied? {cold water is not denial}, itself a caracature? in the world of unhindered credit expansion ups and downs CAN NOT be repealed but they CAN be pigeonholed to fit convienent calendar events like elections. EVERY bear market since Roosevelt has been so pigeonholed to come the year after or the second year after a presidential election. FACT! ) ) )

In its issue on newstands Monday, Time magazine said the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, chaired by Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, had been working on "contingency plans" to maintain orderly markets in case of a big selloff.

( ( ( ( the key words above that should garner your attention are "in case of".
combine the "in case of" with above praragraph and ask again why now should the media report to the prols ( that's you ) the state is making "contingency plans" "in case of"? what does the calendar in your house say? ) ) ) ) )

Gene Sperling, head of the White House's National Economic Council, said the group meets periodically to "talk about a whole lot of things, and of course, try to make sure that you're prepared for anything that happens."

( ( ( ( i am not sure whether Gene made a slip of the tongue or whether it was intentional when he chose to use the word ""you're"" instead of the more correct word "we're"" when spoke of preparation. think about that for a minute. here is group that meets to discuss "a whole lot of things", yet according to the first paragraph Gene "threw cold water" on talk of contingency plans in case of market crash. so why i ask is he using the word "you're" implying us prols instead of the familiar "we're" unless he is issuing a warning whilst dispelling any thought of worry on our part. ) ) ) ) )

But "there's no urgency or anything new going on because the market's been strong," Sperling said on the CNN television program "Late Edition."I think you could have had the same conversation when the market was at 5000, 6000 or 7000 ( points ) ." The Dow Jones Industrials closed Friday at 8,113, off 3.49
points, pausing after three straight record closes.

( ( ( this is my favorite paragraph:

in language and psychology a reader can fairly accurately DISMISS whatever follows the ubiquitous weakly qualifying BUT in a sentence. in language it is the equivalent of a curve ball and should further heighten the reader to the intial points stated. pay attention to Genes choice of words to describe the current state of the market. he does not say the market "is strong" he say's "the market's been strong". perhaps we can simply chalk this up to sloth on his part in education or effort. yet there it is .. past tense! the next word i like in this sentence is "urgency" and then the disengenuous "you could have had the same conversation when the market was at 5000,6000,7000". Of course he is correct. so ask yourself again, why is this article being given media play NOW instead of when the market was at 5000,6000 or 7,000? ) ) ) )

Time said officials were "reluctant to say anything about contingency planning out of concern that it would be misinterpreted as a statement on the market -- something they want no part of."

( ( ( ( don't you just love the way Time officials want their cake and eat to? they want the story and the consequences be dammed.. which sums up the modern american press anyway... yet they want moral absolution for their deeds in advance. modern liberalism to a tee! ) ) ) )

Formed after the October 1987 market crash, the group includes Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, Sperling, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Arthur Levitt, Commodity Futures Trading Commission chairwoman Brooksley Born.

According to Time, the financial policy panel is concerned about the potential for "outflows from mutual funds, which have become swollen with individuals' deposits this decade."

( ( ( ( ( here is the key concern. note the concern is NOT with institutonal players ( my assumption is they can be jawboned, bought off or threatened to comply whatever the best interests of their stockholder may be... NO the worrry is with all those INDIVIDUALS, that's you prols, who may decide to leave the show at the same time despite the media's and wall streets best effort to focus y'all on the distant future. ) ) ) ) )

In the event of a crash the group would call fund companies to monitor activity, the magazine said, adding it was likely the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates as it did after the 1987 crash.

( ( ( ( this last paragraph is comic and shows either their stupidity ( which i doubt ) or their perception of your stupidity ( which i believe ) to think that in the event of a crash telephoning mutual funds and lowering interest rates will handle things adequately. ) ) ) )

( ( ( ( the timing of this article and the play it is receiving suggest to me that we are getting very close to the next "stage managed" bear market. BUT not just YET. all good magicians have one trick up their sleave they save for last. experience has taught me that when a gift of this magnitude is offered by the media and officialdom unrequested, there is usually a zig before we receive the zag. What would be the best way of dispelling all concern of even the need for the above article whilst allowing officials to assuage their consciences down the road? if you guessed a massive market rally just ahead you get the gold star. the final rally in this part of the bull market, needs more than any other part of the bull, true optimists and fools to participate on the buy side. the savvy know better, both institutionally and individually. ergo, lotssa points in a short time to raise the manic level 2 notches whislt the savvy, who have been warned if not by this article then by more direct methods are preparing for the bear. we will NOT escape 1997 without at least a 1000 point ( i expect much more ) decline in the dow 30. before we get that however, the timing of this article and other factors compel me to suggest one more phenomenal rally lies just ahead. if i were to guess the most likely time period for the bear to commence i would say november and december... possibly even october but then, wouldn't that be a cliche?

Thanks Gene, Thanks Time! ) ) ) ) )

(Mon Jul 28 1997 06:35)
ALL: I am still looking at the bb fisher chart of yesterday and I hope we can get a few more comments. Notice the "spike" nature of 1929 vs: the very broad top of 1966. Can anyone offer an insight into the reason for the difference? And, an opinion on what the next top will be, spike or broad, and why you think that.

Another observation: after the 1929 crash there was a "buy on the dip" crowd who gave the Dow a powerful rally into April, 1930. That rally barely registers on the bb fisher chart. That might be useful information for the future if any of you stock bulls are waiting for a chance to "buy on the dip" in the future.

Mike Sheller
(Mon Jul 28 1997 06:36)
grass roots materialism
WW: re your 22:53 - The values evident in society which you decry come not from government, but from the people. The government comes from the people and is what the people deserve. People get according to how they think and act. It is not the "materialistic libertarian rich" who have brought this culture down by not thinking and spending their money on worthless and crude entertainments and excessive mass-produced luxury goods. It is the many, the "little people," it is US. You end your post with the phrase
"God willing," May I suggest that the answer to the dilemma you so rightly perceive in this sick and empty culture lies in an upward direction, rather than to the left or to the right. It is a spiritual problem, my friend, and until it is seen as such, there will be no hope of remedy. Do not be so quick to take your libertarian friends to task. Though you may disagree with their outlook, they are your true contemporaries and colleagues in humanity. For like you, they use their minds and their values to delineate and justify their actions. Do not expect such civil behavior from the mob when they come for you.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 06:42)
Late isnt it?

George - The times aint achaingin too fast. We will see lower gold, 300 gold, before any significant rally. A breakout through 350 would look a lot like a rally to this old trader. But we wont see this breakout yet. Still has some bottom. 300 and lower. Yes I can see 275 but if that happens, our beloved silver will have to follow suit. Im looking for another volatile week Day Trades!!!!!!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 06:47)
Thai market ( S.E.T. ) soared for the second day in a row on expectations the IMF will help Thailand deal with its growing financial problems..The U.S.Dollar strong except against S.E. Asian currencies where the Malaysian Riggit and The Thai Baht rebounded strongly....Good afternoon JIN!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 06:52)
BB FISHER: I am I supposed to get my fund manager on the phone to tell him/her to SELL if Greenspan has the phone line tied up with his call?

(Mon Jul 28 1997 06:55)
Mike Sheller: Your response to WW is right on. I only add that WW represents many who posit trust and hope in government instead of a higher source. He will be disillusioned in time, probably quite soon, given the current levels of scandal, arrogance and incompetence prevalent in government. Some debate should be tolerated, especially since, as GSC has pointed out, a turn to the left will be bullish for gold. Yesterday marked a return to the golden era of Kitco. Let's all tolerate a little food fight once in a while. Things could be and were quite worse.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 07:13)
Mooney: Welcome back but the vacation is OVER!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 07:19)
Ted Where'd you get the up nine on silver quote?

(Mon Jul 28 1997 07:20)

(Mon Jul 28 1997 07:21)
STEVE PUETZ: We can tell that you have been on vacation at the beach by your use of "beach ball under the surface" analogies. Welcome back!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 07:25)
Joke of the morn
Morning Ted, gentlemen, ladies. I'm hard pressed for a good story today so I will post something from one of the old achieves that I like. I'm looking for a healthier gold and silver market this week. Its just too bad I don't have a wad to waste on all of this. Now the promised story.

A missionary couple was captured by some decidedly unfriendly natives,
tied together with a long piece of leather and left dangling over a large
cliff. That evening, the natives danced and chanted around the campfire
and as each member passed the leather strap holding the unfortunate
missionaries, he gave it a whack with a stick, causing it to weaken a bit
more. As the chanting grew louder and louder, the husband looked at his
wife romantically and said, "Listen darling. They're fraying our thong!"

(Mon Jul 28 1997 07:25)
EBN has silver up 9, Kitco has it up 5 and DBC has it up 1. I guess kitco must have it right since the average of the three numbers is 5. What is the URL for EBN? Thanks in advance.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 07:27)
EBN is

(Mon Jul 28 1997 07:35)
@ tort
Thanks for the info.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 07:42)
TORTFEASOR: They say that the pun is the highest form of humor: I think you just gave us the exception that proves the rule!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 07:44)
Contingency Plan
I find it interstering that the Government is making a point of saying that it is not working on a contingency plan in the event the stock market crashes. I take this to mean that the government fears this happening and is scrambling to determine what it will do to save face when the crash happens. Here's the article

(Mon Jul 28 1997 07:54)
Korean government takes steps to "prevent financial turmoil".

(Mon Jul 28 1997 07:57)
Tortfeasor and All -- I posted the story some time ago, as it appeared in the Washington Post. It outlined the Federal Governments plans in conjunction with the Treasury and Federal Reserve. The plan does exist. It is not fiction. They have entry points to try and arrest market declines. If push comes to shove, they will declare a market 'holiday', but this is the last thing that they want to do! It seems with the advent of 'circuit breakers', a more serious problem has been created. Circuit breakers will cause more selling! The thought being, "I'd better get out now! While I stil can!" That assumes that you can get out at all! Not a good assumption! I'll see if I can find the story and post it.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 07:57)

To : Eldorado

Re your 27/7 03:28 post. You said "The only ultimate way out of the whole mess is to rid ourselves of a debt based economy ( where ALL money is loaned into circulation with interest ) . All else is ultimately doomed to pain and total failure."
This is absolutely correct. However, this ultimate way out is, IMHO, several years off. In the mean time we should see higher rates of money supply growth and higher interest rates. The higher interest rates will occur independently of the Fed as the market increases the inflation and exchange rate premiums on all dollar denominated debt.
BTW, if the Fed monetised 1 trillion dollars of new govt debt as I suggested, the money would be in the hands of the govt and theirs to spend in whichever way they thought would provide the greatest lift to the economy. Govts have never had any problem finding ways to spend money and thus increasing the money supply.

Regards, Milhouse

(Mon Jul 28 1997 07:58)
Just a question of timing

Donald - re your 27/7 09:59
Yes - I think we are only arguing over what stage of the terminal disease we are in. However, the answer is very important . If you believe we have at least several years of inflation ahead of us, which I certainly do, then you are likely to invest heavily in "stuff". The next few years should see huge increases in the prices of all commodities . Those who start developing a posture now which is based on near term deflation will miss this opportunity. IMHO, of course !
Regards, Milhouse

(Mon Jul 28 1997 08:01)
dow/gold ratio
BB Fisher: Would it be too much trouble to publish your dow/gold ratio chart, except invert it so that the dow shows low ( when it was low ) and gold shows high ( when it was up ) ?
Yesterday, someone said something to the effect that to make a true gold chart, put a dot in the left hand corner of a blank paper, and then put another dot on the right hand corner, then draw a line connecting the dots. That is a gold price chart....and all paper fluctuates in relation to this. Redrawing your dow/gold chart would drive the point home.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 08:02)
In a quandary

The problem with losing Hepcat from this group is that it now takes me a very long time to read through 24 hours of posts because almost every one of them contains useful information. Ah, what to do !!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 08:09)
DONALD: About 1966, there was so much "conglomerating" that year, I'd suspect those Dow numbers were non-typical.

Mike Sheller
(Mon Jul 28 1997 08:18)
up to Speed
SPEED: You know me, Speed, when it comes to food fights I only throw cream puffs! My point is that I WISH WW was right about "materialistic libertarians" ruining this society. Considering how few of them there are, I suspect it has been the Democrats and Republicans who have been wreaking the cultural and philosophical havoc upon us for lo these many decades. I feel a truer kinship to WW, even though we appear to disagree about methods and approaches to human concerns, than I do to the mass of unthinking, uncaring people he is so quick to empty our pockets on behalf of. If there were as many libertarians in this society as WW imagines there are, I would feel very good about a growing preponderance of citizens who are not only looking at the human condition in a philosophical and structured manner, but are clearly on the right track as well. ( :+ ) ) Perhaps it is a question of definitions. Maybe WW has not taken the time to truly understand the philosophical position of the radical libertarian. WE certainly have had our fill of first hand experience of the liberal/centrist/conservative axis. Or maybe he was referring to "librarians." In which case, I apologize for misunderstanding.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 08:20)
LELAND: Good point. Everyone was worried about a shortage of shares, they were all being bought up by the conglomerates. I wondered if there were still so many participants in the market who had personal recollection of 1929 that the "Wall of Worry" syndrome kept creating corrections. From 1921 to 1929 there are no corrections on this chart, from 1987 to now, also no corrections. The implication to me is that we are due for a "spike" top. I am hoping for more opinions.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 08:22)
Stock Market Circuit Breakers
Panda: Here is an on-line novel where the author used his idea of a crash that was aggravated by the "circuit breakers".
It sounded reasonable to me.


Mike Sheller
(Mon Jul 28 1997 08:24)
he said, tauntingly
RJ: Hey, Hey, RJ, are you gonna cover your shorts today?

(Mon Jul 28 1997 08:29)
@(who's who?)
Cmax -- Are you having an identity crisis today? :- ) ) :- ) )

(Mon Jul 28 1997 08:31)
Cmax -- Not to worry, I understood your post. I just couldn't resist having some fun with it! :- )

(Mon Jul 28 1997 08:32)
Mornin Tort!....Comex Gold down .40 and Silver up 1.5 cents...S+P futures up 2.25 and the Dollar just hit a six year high versus the Yen...Long Bond up two ticks...Heavy FOG here...

(Mon Jul 28 1997 08:34)
Mornin Panda...our houseguest from Boston area just arrived and the weather has suddenly turned south...

(Mon Jul 28 1997 08:43)
TED -- Do you want the Humidity and HEAT down here, up your way? I would be glad if you took it off of my hands! As I understand the weather forecast, you will be saving me with some nice cool Canadian air in a day or so.

In the FWIW column, I was going to post a chart of the Nasdaq Composite last night. I know this is a gold forum, but, on a log scale, the chart is showing an angle of 70+ degrees ascent! Gee, I wonder when we go to infinity? At this rate, not long. On the other hand, what goes up, and is caught by gravity, must eventually come back to earth. Hard hats will be required, along with, "Duck and cover!" :- )

(Mon Jul 28 1997 08:46)
Rogue Speculators? Mahathir Should Know!
Looks like a case of sour grapes to me. Also, if you need to go to sleep, here's a nice url:

(Mon Jul 28 1997 08:50)
Panda:66 degrees and fog....S+P futures up 2.25....

(Mon Jul 28 1997 08:53)
Stock Market Circuit Breakers
Panda: Here is an on-line novel where the author used his idea of a crash that was aggravated by the "circuit breakers".
It sounded reasonable to me.


(Mon Jul 28 1997 08:54)
PANDA...what is your "outlook" on the PGM'S this week?? Any news?

(Mon Jul 28 1997 08:54)
TED -- I'll take it! When do you want to trade? :- ) )

(Mon Jul 28 1997 09:05)
BillD -- I have been consumed this weekend with getting my PC working! I needed more storage space. As a result.... I haven't been paying much attention to the rest of the world. Regarding the PGMs, I can sleep well with the positions I have. Everything else, well... We shall see what the Russians feel is a 'fair' price for the PGMs. :- )

(Mon Jul 28 1997 09:08)
@what else is new
Stox lookin strong to start the week as S+P futures now up 2.90...Noticed EBN Gold just turned up....Up .55....S+P futures up 3.10....

(Mon Jul 28 1997 09:11)

The price of gold in DM is hovering around the 600 level. This is a big fat round number and has turned gold away over the past years. I have always wondered whether this was a price where selling came in from European CB's. The tone of the market is has been better of late and I think there is a real good chance of some strong upside action this week. The rally in 93 started with a similar breakout of gold in DM.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 09:12)
Comex report: Gold up .20; Silver up 1 cent; and Platinum up 3.80...Friday is the "big one"...the Employment report...

(Mon Jul 28 1997 09:34)
Comex report: Gold up .10; Silver up 2 cents and Platinum up 3.30...despite strong Dollar...Dow up 18...

bb fisher
(Mon Jul 28 1997 09:36)
same deal as sunday
charts in 2 parts semilog for piecing together

they depict the percentage it would take of 1 unit of a hypothetical dow 30 average to purchase 1 ounce of gold.


dow at 8000 ==== .04% to buy one ounce of gold

bb fisher
(Mon Jul 28 1997 09:37)
y'all know the drill
part 2

George Cole
(Mon Jul 28 1997 09:39)
in Florida
RJ: Better not be short gold when the dollar tops out.

BB Fisher: Looks like the final blowoff is beginning today. I still have difficlty seeing 9000, but 8500 should be no problem.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 09:40)
@In Hiding
Anyvone here vot lif Japan? Vill out vindow look to see if truk arrive yet? Is 1942 Dodge, red star on dor. Tell driver call offiz please. Thankz.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 09:43)
AN ENIGMA WRAPPED IN AN ANOMALY is the theme of a meticulous dissection of Central Bank Gold Operations & Its Ramifications. New analyst goes by the handle of Red Baron:

(Mon Jul 28 1997 09:55)
Morning Ted! Trouble is that it is not 66 and foggy here in T.O. but 88 and muggy! BTW - Are you prepared to use your day's darg to purchase a crab-skuit? :- )

2 with time on his hands
(Mon Jul 28 1997 09:58)
Here's a hint: Skip this post
Suppose you had infinite access to information ( not including reading people's minds ) , and wanted to predict the price of gold over some term.

( 1 ) What are the top ten items you would factor into your prediction? ( sample items: Amount of gold jewelry fabricated in each of the last 30 days. Transcripts of all meetings of central bankers in the last two months. Etc., with imagination. )
( 2 ) Even with all that info, what kind of margin of error would your predictions have?

I think it is pretty clear that in the arena of gold, the human element is relatively more important. Also, as we know, "above 360 there is nothing but air", the supply/demand curve can get very weird for this storied commodity ( Hey - nobody needs it, everybody wants it ) .

Wouldn't we all agree that the best mind, with the best information, would make money, but not be all that accurate?

Wouldn't we all agree that even with all the information, there is no commodity, stock, index fund, or other asset that is more difficult to accurately forecast than gold?

The WSJ picked top analysts in 50 areas. ( I think that ) the only area in which the analyst felt obliged to say, I have no emotional attachment to this investment arena, was precious metals. The implication is, a lot of people to. Certainly I do.

But if anyone wants to say, here is my prediction, I would say, What are the most important indicators, and what do you know about them, and how important are the indicators about which you know nothing and over which you have no control? Because once those indicators are factored in, is it going to pretty clear that your prediction has a margin of error that makes it hardly better than chance?

Does the doctor study toenail clippings to tell whether the patient will live or die? Does the mechanic take paint samples to diagnose engine performance? Well, yes, perhaps sometimes there will be a correlation, and perhaps sometimes analyses so based will have an accuracy that is uncanny.

But what does the enlightened MD want to know? What does the engine diagnostic analyzer measure? And what should gold analysts be looking at? Charts? The moon? Polls? Hepcat?

Best to all. It's been a pleasant few days here at Kitcoland, has it not? Somebody go find Cherokee.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 10:00)
Dow is up 9.99
Sounds like some cheap sale at Walmart ( :- )

(Mon Jul 28 1997 10:03)
Mornin Mooney! Darg ( ? ) and crab-skuit ( ? ) huh????...Comex gold up a dime;Silver up a penny;Platinum up 3.30 and Palladium up .85...Am off to play tour guide and first stop is Marconi Museum...XAU down .07..BYE!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 10:05)
Here's a heavy one to start off everyones' week. :- )
" One should respect public opinion insofar as is necessary to avoid
starvation and keep out of prison, but anything that goes beyond this is
voluntary submission to an unnecessary tyranny." Bertrand Russell

(Mon Jul 28 1997 10:09)
Mooney: That one's a keeper. Yesterday's quote from Frost was as well.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 10:11)
Darg: a day's pay! Crab-Skuit: a small open fishing boat with sail. ( Perfect for your neck of the woods on balmy days. ) Check out my Ode to Hepcat that I posted last Wednesday morning if you really want to learn some new words! C U L8R

(Mon Jul 28 1997 10:14)
Thanks Earl. Appreciate the appreciation!

Steve (Perth)
(Mon Jul 28 1997 10:14)
I'm back for a day. Away in Geraldton until next Saturday. Haven't missed much. I agree, it is now harder to scroll over all the good posts ( considering one person has fortunately disappeared ) . Back to the good old days....

(Mon Jul 28 1997 10:15)

Puetz: The URL below was posted here on the weekend and leads to the views of the guy who runs the biggest gold mining enterprise on the planet. He says the CBs are not controlling the gold price. What is your view on his statements?

Steve (Perth)
(Mon Jul 28 1997 10:25)
"In our humble opinion the US stock market may have given a SERIOUS technical sell signal on 18th July. Serious means charts indicate the possibility of a 22% fall. That's not the end of the world, but it's not chicken feed either. All world markets will follow US market. ...that means a 44% fall in many stocks....The chart pattern isn't the only evidence for a sell off. Stochastic oscillators show loss of momentum. The Bullish concensus shows excessive bullishness. Short selling by NYSE specialists is dangerously high. Etc. It smells like a very stiff correction. SELL SHORT.. Maybe this is a false alarm. We hope so because most people can't AFFORD a big correction, let alone a bear market. But we would be derelict in our duty if we didn't at least mention this notable risk possibility. "

From Steve in Perth - I agree with Mahatir in Malaysia. He has done a lot of good for the poor in his country. I think Soros is full of ..... Soros is a BIG worry. In my view, Soros is being allowed to do what he is doing, to bring down national world currency, to further the one world financial system of one world currency. He will then be out of business, but what does he care then? I wish Australia had the intestinal fortitude of Malaysia.

Peter Costello addressed us at the Liberal Party of WA State Conference. He simply stated that the Aussie Reserve Bank had assets such a gold that he hoped would not be drawn upon to defend the currency. Hence they did a little asset swapping. Hey presto, its so easy. "I can't see what all the fuss is all about". Swine....

Steve - Perth
(Mon Jul 28 1997 10:37)
Cash Trusts soar, despite hot shares

Steve - Perth
(Mon Jul 28 1997 10:47)
Gold royalty delayed for WA Miners.

If you were John Howard, & had been under the hammer lately, did not want to face the Diggers & Dealers Conference in Kalgoorlie, wanted to watch the cricket instead....what do you do. Organise for your body to catch Pneumonia. He has been watching the Cricket from the Mater Hospital in Sydey for the past three days. Probably quite sick, but certainly got off the hook for the hard stuff. Costello took it in his stride ( as usual he could call black white, & would do it without even flinching ) . See, there is no problem with selling 170 tonnes of gold when over 3500 tonnes were sold last year. It chicken feed, didn't you know. ( & more incredible lines followed at the Liberal Party State Conference )

(Mon Jul 28 1997 10:47)
I've been out of town ( and off the net ) for awhile. Did I miss anything exciting?

RJ, I got the package. Will be contacting you soon.

All - the following should make you feel safe. BTW, Greenspain is now driving the boat...

This is the transcript of an ACTUAL radio conversation
of a US naval ship with Canadian authorities off the coast of
Newfoundland in October 1995.
Radio conversation released by the Chief of Naval
Operations 10-10-95.
Americans: Please divert your course 15 degrees to the North to avoid
a collision.

Canadians: Recommend you divert YOUR course 15 degrees to the South to avoid a collision.

Americans: This is the Captain of a US Navy ship. I say again, divert
YOUR course.

Canadians: No. I say again, you divert YOUR course.


Canadians: This is a lighthouse. Your call.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 10:51)

Another soaring day for the dollar, the second strongest currency in the world. A small toast to the strongest currency in the world. Go gold. The 600 level in DM's has been well penetrated. We are somewhere in the 603-604 level. I think 612-613 is a multiyear high.

All of the prior forays up to the $328-330 level have been hit with strong end of day selling in New York. If we again make it up in that range the bears will be put to the test yet again. Each time they lean against the wind, they expend more ammo, and are left with more precarious positions. I smell a double digit day on the upside.

Steve - Perth
(Mon Jul 28 1997 10:59)
Malaysia renews attack on Currency Speculators ( Criminals )
Nothing like a few hundred million muslims having a go at a clever jew eh? WARNING: This could be the spark that could eventually move the nations around the world to attack Israel in the future. A long shot I know, but has been predicted for a LONG time....

(Mon Jul 28 1997 11:04)
To WW:

Hey WW:

Dear Old George's plea aside, let me quote you for a second...

"IE they pay taxes and at a higher percentage than some of what I call the incredibly greedy rich who want it all and make the lower class hard working people sound like unworthy individuals. This is hypocrisy at its worst/ Go Clinton/ Rubin hold back welfare for the filthy rich as much as you can. When we retake Congress we can raise taxes on the rich and give relief to those with lower incomes. "

Oh, now I get it. You want to tax the rich so you can go to Cuba on a freebie in a more luxurious style! Sorry, I must have misunderstood you before. Here I thought you were on the side of the little guy. Well, you didn't seem to give a damn about the little guy when you were thinking of going to Cuba on my tax dollars through your relatives conections to the NDP party in Canada did you! And you talk about hypocrisy! Gimme a break!


(Mon Jul 28 1997 11:04)
"The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy" Section - III
Professor Miller of New York University - describes the dire economic & financial consequences subsequent to Japans own excessive & IRRATIONAL EXHUBERANCE: The Bubble Bursts: 1990-91

(Mon Jul 28 1997 11:08)
@Dealers also said they were confused by the Russian export agency Almazjuvelirexport announcing the closure of its Tokyo office earlier to- day.
I smell something strange here .....

Monday July 28 10:33 AM EDT

London gold fixes touch higher, awaits OTC expiry

LONDON, July 28 ( Reuter ) - Precious metals prices remained within tight ranges on Monday afternoon ahead of the
next day's over the counter ( OTC ) option expiry, dealers said.

``One of the key strike prices seems to be $325 per ounce so we won't see much movement away from that in the
market,'' one dealer said.

He added that just before the afternoon fixing, gold made a few ``half- hearted'' attempts to get past $326.00.

But by the fix it was settled little changed from the morning at $325.75 against $325.40 and $324.10 on Friday.

The Comex August contract was at $326.40 down $0.10.

Dealers said the markets had been quiet all day and had made little progress after firming in New York on Friday and
holding the level in the Far East.

Platinum and palladium prices were both slightly firmer.

Platinum was $3.00 up at $425.50/$428.50 after fixing at $428.00, its highest fix since July 2.

Dealers said the market had been heartened by news that Toyota Motor Corp plans to introduce low-emission vehicle
models later this year that will use more platinum group metals in their autocatalysts than existing models.

The company did not specify how much additional platinum group metal would be used in the new autocatalysts.

The system is similar to one developed by Honda Motor Co Ltd which is believed to use more PGMs than conventional
catalytic systems.

Dealers also said they were confused by the Russian export agency Almazjuvelirexport announcing the closure of its Tokyo office earlier to- day.

Russia is the largest exporter of palladium and second largest shipper of platinum with Japan its largest customer for both

Shipments for 1997 began only this month after administrative problems effectively cut off exports last December.

``It's a bit worrying coming without any explanation,'' one dealer said.

Palladium meanwhile was quoted at $202.00/$205.00 up three dollars and silver was two cents ahead of Friday's close
at $4.33/$4.35 without attracting any interest.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 11:09)
12% up day in Dow
Over the weekend I listened to some of Wolanchuck's market comments. Since he's been right on the market for several years his comments have some merit. He believes the stock market has a long way to go in terms of price and time. The center of primary wave III will be marked by the biggest one day price move ever, not in terms of points ( 185 ) but in terms of percent. The biggest one day advance was 12% after the 87 crash, that means a one day advance at these levels of over 900 points. He looks for a pull back into the 1998 four year cycle low, but from what price and time is unsure. The main factor seems to be to many bears and until the numbers change he's bullish.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 12:16)
This medicine always works. At 10:40 CNBC flashed the news that Fed Added Liquidity. Was the result was instantaneous, or am I reading too much into a "routine" Fed activity.$INDU&time_period=1-minute%20Bars&bars=600?wstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&ke

(Mon Jul 28 1997 12:26)
GEORGE S. COLE: Donald's references today to 1966 put some of my rusty
wheels to turnin'. Wasn't it 1967 when we saw the US$ devalued? What
do you see comming from this direction?

(Mon Jul 28 1997 12:37)
Donald- Thanks for the response re:Korea, and the continuing news updates. I wasn't asking about KF as much as how the Korean market reacts to the news. It seems that they have faith in the government's ability to fix things ( and why not, these days? )

I also enjoy the inflation/deflation debate- I've been struggling with it for several years now....

(Mon Jul 28 1997 12:38)
Feeding the python.


(Mon Jul 28 1997 12:45)
even Time magazine knows!
Top Clinton aide discounts U.S. crash plan
WASHINGTON - President Bill Clinton's top economic advisor
threw cold water on Sunday on a report that federal regulators
had been working on plans to prevent a financial meltdown in
case of a major stock market drop.
In its issue on newstands Monday, Time magazine said the
President's Working Group on Financial Markets, chaired by
Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, had been working on
"contingency plans" to maintain orderly markets in case of a big
- - - -
S.E.Asia currencies firm as Thailand mulls IMF aid
SINGAPORE - Southeast Asia's battered currencies staged a
tentative recovery on Monday as the market pinned its hopes on
an economic rescue package for Thailand.
Dealers said news that Thai leaders had agreed in principle
to tap loans from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) lifted
the baht and underpinned the region's other currencies.
- - - -

(Mon Jul 28 1997 12:50)
and speaking of cowboys
Wait till Murdoch decides to run the guns, go free enterprise!

U.S. May Challege News Corp. Deal
The U.S. Justice Department may challenge News Corp.'s plans
to acquire Heritage Media Corp. in a $1.35 billion
stock-and-debt transaction. The department's antitrust field
office in San Francisco is recommending that the department
challenge the deal, the companies said today. News Corp. plans
to buy Heritage, a Dallas-based mass marketing company, for $754
million in stock and the assumption of $600 million in debt. The
deal was announced March 17. The companies say they were told of
the San Francisco field office's position after the close of
U.S. stock market trading on Friday.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 12:51)
and then there's the mystics
New Age Economics
These are trying times for economists. The U.S. economy is
performing amazingly well, but even the world's most important
central banker, Alan Greenspan, cannot explain what is going on.
At least some of the recent stellar performance of the U.S.
economy seems to be attributable to structural changes, such as
increased productivity. Experts cite the strong dollar, which
helps to keep import prices down, and low oil prices as among
the key reasons for the recent lull in inflation. Higher labor
mobility, more moderate wage agreements and a drastic fall in
health care costs also had a strong impact, they say.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 12:53)
CMAX- Amen on your 7/27 21:29 post! I've made soliloquies to the same effect for years. The 'service-driving-more-service economy' bothers me. I'd welcome other thoughts you or others may have on the subject.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 12:54)
first the stick, then the carrot?
U.S. presses ASEAN on liberalising financial servi

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia, July 28 ( Reuter ) - The United States
on Monday asked ASEAN to go significantly further in
liberalising financial services, saying this would bolster
economic policies that ensure long-term growth.
In a statement to the Association of South East Asian
Nations, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright also pressed the
region's developing countries to cooperate in U.N. negotiations
to cut pollution from burning fossil fuels.
She noted U.S. concern about recent currency fluctuations
that have affected regional economies such as Malaysia, Thailand
and the Philippines and said market-oriented responses by some
countries helped dampen the volatility.
Albright argued that initiatives being discussed at ASEAN,
``including the effort to liberalise trade in financial
services, have a critical part to play in ensuring continued
growth and prosperity in the region.
``No country can have a world-class, high-tech economy
without a world-class, properly regulated financial services
sector to allocate capital efficiently,'' Albright said.
``Significantly improved offers from all ASEAN states will
help generate the momentum needed to reach a global agreement by
the December 12 deadline,'' set by the World Trade Organisation,
she said.
U.S. officials say last year's trade agreements on
information technology and telecommunications were achieved only
because ASEAN decided they were in their interest.
Albright praised this contribution and said: ``This year,
the ASEAN countries have a chance to play the same positive role
in WTO negotiations to liberalise financial services.''
Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed has accused
international financier George Soros of using his financial
clout to destabilise Southeast Asian currencies in an effort to
block Burma's admission to ASEAN.
Malaysia's New Straits Times newspaper reported that Soros
denied he intervened in currency markets to punish governments
backing Burma's entry into ASEAN, which took place this week.
But Soros acknowledged opposing Burma's admission as a
``totalitarian and repressive regime.''
Malaysia and its neighbours have seen attacks on their
currencies in the past month forcing devaluations in Thailand
and the Philippines and expensive intervention in Malaysia.
The United States, which has banned new American investment
in Burma, also opposed Burma's admission to ASEAN. In Monday's
ASEAN statement, Albright made no mention of Soros. But she said
``drug traffickers are now leading lights in Burma's new market
economy and leading figures in its new political order.
``We are increasingly concerned that Burma's drug
traffickers, with official encouragement, are laundering their
profits through Burmese banks and companies -- some of which are
joint ventures with foreign businesses,'' she said.
``Drug money has become so pervasive in Burma that it taints
legitimate investment and threatens the region as a whole.''
Albright also made a strong pitch for ASEAN to cooperate in
U.N.-sponsored negotiations to impose limits on emissions to
slow the process of global climate change.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 12:58)
get on board
gold up 1.50, dmark down 24, jyen down 50 What is happening???????
gold is CHEAP. Get on board!!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 12:59)
Re: WW, taxes
WW: Your heart is in the right place. Taxes on the poor are onerous. In fact if our leaders believe their bs about the global economy we must abolish all taxes on labor! All income taxes, social security taxes ( both employee and employer ) , medicare taxes, unemployment taxes, all the dozens of direct and indirect taxes on labor. Why? Because we as laborers must compete with our counterparts in ( ie. ) China whose total wages are less than what the minimum wage worker in this country pays in social security taxes alone. Granted even without paying any taxes on our labor competition will not be easy. The taxes on labor make it impossible. Taxing capital gains in an inflationary economy ( ours ) amounts to the confisication of wealth. So who do we tax? One place I would suggest we look is at the receiver of the vast slice of gnp served up by our Federal Reserve System, the banks et al. The last time I checked the banks were paying a total tax of about 2%-5% of the profits they reported to their stockholders. But we have been told corporations do not pay taxes, they will simply pass them on in product pricing. Perhaps, ( we are now told due to the global economy this is not possible ) still if the banks paid the about 50% in taxes the rest of us pay, it would spread some tax pain beyond the wage earners of all classes, to the powerful truely wealthy who do not earn their wealth other than by political favor.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 13:07)
give us a break
US is awash with drug money...mostly in politics, eg SORO

US Blames Burma for Drugs
The United States today accused Burma of officially
encouraging the drug trade. Speaking at the ASEAN conference in
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright
said drug traffickers are ``now leading lights in Burma's new
market economy and leading figures in its new political order.''
She said drug money has become so pervasive in Burma, it taints
legitimate investment and threatens the region as a whole. Burma
recently joined ASEAN despite Western disapproval.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 13:11)
may have flooded the group, just some connected events leading up to the GLOBAL CURRENCY MELTDOWN....well we wanted a global economy and a global boom...just what does a global bust look like anyhow? There ain't nowhere to run, nowhere to hide we're all in it together now, embrace the world but never forget....keep the GOLD in your pocket!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 13:16)
The test
If it smells like a bull, has horns like a bull, and has gored a lot of investors with its horns and doesn't eat honey out of a tree its probably a bull. I can smell a lot of bull in the local press regarding gold and the other precious metals. From the Tortfeasor comes the declaration that the gold bull is officially underway. Back off all doubting Thomases or Toms ( by whichever name you may be known ) and make way for the bull that has not yet become an investment steer. Wave that gold flag in front of this bull and see him run.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 13:19)
@Ingotwetrust - Ingovtwedonottrust
bw: Re taxes, let us do away with all present taxes and use the Sales Tax. Then people would see constantly what they really pay in taxes and we would get spending under control.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 13:20)
I'm off for a large Gin....BOTTOM's UP LADS!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 13:23)
Tort: Don't jinx us now......XAU up 1.49...

(Mon Jul 28 1997 13:26)
Ted, I quickly recant. I'm saying it isn't so.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 13:30)
Tort: Whew...I feel better already!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 13:34)
ja thq
OTC gold options with a 327 strike expire on Tuesday, curretly spot gold is at 328.5 at 1330 newyork time. We may get some fireworks!!

George Cole
(Mon Jul 28 1997 13:38)
gold bull?
I am not quite ready to say the bull is on, but the odds look very good at this point. Gold's ability to rise in the face of a surging dollar is the best action I have witnessed since early 1996. But, as DA points out, the bears almost surely will attempt to smash the yellow at the day's end. If they fail or are only able to push gold down slightly, then there is a good chance we will see $340 this week as WW has projected.

BTW, I believe Captain Bill at the Privateer is ready to declare a buy signal if the yellow can get through $340 ( the 100 day MA ) with conviction

(Mon Jul 28 1997 13:42)
WSF: I checked the KF in Barrons's this Saturday. It is still selling at a 6.5% premium. It would seem that you are safe. That premium should turn to a discount at which point you should be on full alert.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 13:47)
GEORGE COLE: I am encouraged about a possible top here also. Former market leaders like Compaq and Dell are having a tough time today. One brokerage house must have read my reality check on Dell in these spaces yesterday. It was downgraded to "hold" on a valuation call. Hold = sell in Brokerspeak I think. But still, knock on wood just to be sure we don't jinx it with this kind of talk.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 13:58)
Say it ain't so..... the loss I can handle, but don't hedge!!! not now, not at the low.

SAN FRANCISCO -- Homestake Mining Co. reported a second-quarter loss due to lower gold prices and said its board authorized the company to hedge its production.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 14:10)
Play it again Uncle Sam?
Who needs a currency crisis to give indigestion when you got this?

Albright prepares song for foreign ministers' dinner

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia ( AP ) - U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright was in a different kind of spotlight today, offering a humorous rendition of ``Don't Cry for Me, Argentina'' at a dinner for 19 foreign ministers.

With lyrics that included the line, ``Don't cry for me, President Clinton,'' Albright practiced the song before the dinner with aides as the chorus. The rehearsal took place around a piano in the ballroom of the Sunway Lagoon Resort Hotel.

Delegates to the forum of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) traditionally sing songs, tell jokes and provide entertainment at the dinner concluding their security talks.

Part of the lyrics of Albright's song:

``Don't cry for me ASEANists,

``The truth is I never left you.

``I still need your partnership

``In all my dealings.

``Don't cry for me, President Clinton ...


``I tried to talk to your leaders.

``But they were all on the golf course.

``So I come back to

``The Sunway Lagoon.

``Have I said too much?

``But that's all I have to say.

``You only have to look at me

``To see that it's all true.''

(Mon Jul 28 1997 14:19)
Speed don't be alarmed. You did not read Jack Thompson's full comments about Homestake's hedging plans. Read on:
``As most of you know, Homestake traditionally has not hedged any of its gold production except in very special circumstances. We did forward sell production from our Nickel Plate mine in British Columbia and, more recently, from our McLaughlin mine in northern California. Both mines were near the end of their economic life. Our basic policy on hedging is about to change. The Board of Directors has authorized the Company to implement strategies to provide a floor price for a portion of our gold production. In addition, authority was given to enter into forward sales arrangements if deemed appropriate. We are NOT about to hedge a significant portion of our gold resources at the current price, but we now have that flexibility if required in the future.'' There, feel better now?

(Mon Jul 28 1997 14:33)
Looks like the shorts are running out of ammo.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 14:35)
I've got Oct. gold up 3.90

(Mon Jul 28 1997 14:39)
Gold War!
Let the Battle begin.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 14:40)
Gold War!
Let the Battle begin.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 14:48)
@ The Close Of Comex:
Something happened at the close in NY. XAU and HUI popped up. Panda: Happiness is having the library's computer people to deal with computer problems. : )

(Mon Jul 28 1997 14:52)
BP - has been getting SMACKED...fleeing to Gold...?
OUCH! Does anyone have news about Brit 2-day? The 'blessed' lb is taking a beating.
Are the currencies moving to metals?
Will we see a bull running through the crowded streets?
Will the Bear take the bull by the horns?
Will Batman save Robin?
Does Julia Roberts have fake lips?
Tune in...tomorrow?...
Same bat channel...
Same bat time...

AWAY ;-?

(Mon Jul 28 1997 14:54)
Japans divesture of $US assets will lead to collapse in US bond market, devaluation of US dollar & increase in gold price. Insightful and prophetic. Must RELOAD Guru Milhouse page:

(Mon Jul 28 1997 14:59)
@ Breaking the CRB Barrier:
CRB Cash broke through 240. British Pound down -322

(Mon Jul 28 1997 15:06)
Hey I got a short spikey haircut a couple of hours ago, I come back and gold had a short spike too. Maybe I am a leading indicator.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 15:11)
Byron -- This particular computer problem stems for the empire of "Gates". Question, what happens if your hard drive crashes or worse, you run out of space? Well, if Windows NT is your operating system, a lot of agony awaits you. With DOS, you could transfer the boot sector/loader easily. With NT, it's a big secret. Shhhh! Of course the standard answer would be to add a hard drive to your system. But wait! That doesn't answer the question of, what do you do when the O/S eats up all the disk space! This is classic High Tech Non-thinking. If this is what the 'future economy' is based on... Expect wild swings in the economy. High Tech was never noted for its level performance!

On the other hand, gold has had a notably consistant performance bias to the downside. Could this be changing? Looking at the ForEx rates, it seems as though devaluation is the theme of the day. Got to create jobs. Got to export. Yup. Joe Batapaga..... whatever his name is, says that 1987 was different than now. We had a currency crisis then, and the the long bond was 250 basis points higher than now. Good reasons to keep on buying stocks...... :- ) )

(Mon Jul 28 1997 15:18)
Byron -- How does one back off of something like this?? Any steeper ascent, and it will be a 'spike' climax. At least for the moment. And yes, this is a log chart. Keep in mind also that the techs have been the leaders of this market. Oh where oh where do I find a safe place to 'invest' my money in???

(Mon Jul 28 1997 15:27)
Jeeez, what kind of steroids are they feeding the German DAX these days? Devaluation steroids? :- ) ) I see Austria didn't do too bad today, up 2%.

Maybe this is the new paradigm, we can devalue our way to wealth! To whatever was/is keeping the 'price' of gold down, I truely appreciate your efforts. :- )

Now, it's my turn to wait. :- )

(Mon Jul 28 1997 15:35)
@look out, Jim Bob
Just heard a report that IMC Global is going after Freeport McMorRan, whichj is currently up 4 1/2.

Well, they knocked gold rallies down last Tuesday and Thursday, but couldn't muster it today.

Did anyone hear market maven Abby Joseph Cohen's response to Paul Kangas' query ( NBR, Friday nite ) whether it was time to buy gold? She said absolutely Sun Microsystems and IBM... Well, maybe...

(Mon Jul 28 1997 15:38)
I love these Up days
Just chiming in!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 15:41)
The shorts are barely ( bearly? ) holding on; you can smell the fear.
They will crack soon

(Mon Jul 28 1997 15:47)
Time for the cowboys to "cut 'n run"?

(Mon Jul 28 1997 15:50)
Novice: Do I detect a hint of bullishness in your comment???..Comex gold up 3.0 ....Talkin about gold on futures Round Up ( CNBC ) ...just a dead-cat bounce says talkin head...YES!....I love it when ya talk that way!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 15:55)
Has the Fed embraced the "buy on the dip strategy? Gotta have a new high every day!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 15:55)
Where did gold close today ?????? Yep, you guessed it !!!Right at the very top of the trading range established in the last down move.....$329.50...If it closes below that tommorrow, then it is lookout for $314.00....Above it will prove to be interesting...

(Mon Jul 28 1997 15:59)
Good week for stats!....employment cost index out tomorrow....Bad week for New York Rangers: Messier signs with the Canucks....

(Mon Jul 28 1997 16:03)
RJ: In your opinion ( which I value as an honest trader ) ; at what price ( s ) will the shortest shorts throw in the towel?

(Mon Jul 28 1997 16:04)
SPX down 2.68 but the Dow up ~5 points? Hmmmm.... What does the S&P500 represent??? 500 stocks or twenty? Curious divergence. Now, all we need is a twenty Dollar rally in gold! I feel that this would be the most humane way to deal with this SPX/Dow divergence. :- ) )

(Mon Jul 28 1997 16:04)
GLENN: What happened at the close??

(Mon Jul 28 1997 16:05)
Today's high was 333.60, isn't that part of the trading range or do you just use the close

(Mon Jul 28 1997 16:09)
BART -- What about listing DEFINITIONS for frequently used ACRONYMS and PHRASES at this web site ? Might I suggest at high noon on every Monday ( EDT ) a listing appear. The newcomers and occasional contributors would benefit initially. Longer term, this KITCO site would be the BIG WINNER as we continue to educate ourselves. For example:

Big Trader: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Buba: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
COMEX: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
FOMC: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
IMHO: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

(Mon Jul 28 1997 16:10)
APH: 336 ? ( or do you think that is too exposed? ) ( dec ) Thanks. You are one of those whose posts I pay particular attention to.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 16:21)
Trade Buying Gold
According to News Alert

(Mon Jul 28 1997 16:25)
Dan: re : your 14:19. Thanks! I was reading the synopsis, not the whole article.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 16:28)
Aussies to buy back?
...naah to proud, to admit their mistake, don't confuse us with facts

(Mon Jul 28 1997 16:44)
@Golden bull or Golden bear??
Ted: Re yer 15:50, to avoid becoming the Kitco "Jonah" or jinx, I refuse to answer yer question ( maybe by e-mail...{;- ) . As for Wall Street Abby, a putdown of gold was to be expected ( though her stock picks already look insanely high to moi ) .

(Mon Jul 28 1997 16:50)
Soros is doing Malaysia a favor.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 16:59)
From Tokyo: Chip making equipment sales fall 18%. High Tech selloff?

(Mon Jul 28 1997 17:09)
An old story but I think we missed it. D-Mark: Germany seems unlikely to halt

Originally published: MONDAY JULY 21 1997

By Simon Kuper in London and Andrew Fisher in Frankfurt

The D-Mark, sliding steadily for a year, has recently begun to nosedive. It
has lost 15 pfennigs against the pound in the last month, and has fallen
more than 5 pfennigs against the dollar in a fortnight. "You could almost
call that a devaluation," said Mr Peter von Maydell, senior currency
economist at Union Bank of Switzerland.

The question in the market is whether Germany will do anything to stop the
slide. The answer seems to be no.

Since last August the D-Mark has dropped 32 per cent against the pound
to around DM3.00, and 18 per cent against the dollar to about DM1.80.
The forces behind this move seem set to remain in place. German interest
rates are well below those in the UK and the US, prompting a flight out of
Germany in search of higher yields.

Also, the forex market believes that in 18 months' time the D-Mark will
merge into a weak single European currency.

The market's assault on the currency has paused briefly, for fear that the
Bundesbank and other central banks might counter-attack by buying
D-Marks. The Bundesbank is famously obsessive about inflation, and a
weak D-Mark raises the price of imports.

Yet the market increasingly believes Germany is happy with the D-Mark's
level. Mr Helmut Kohl, the German chancellor, said on Friday that its fall
was "not earth shattering" and noted the boost it had given to exports. Mr
Peter Hausmann, the government spokesman, last Wednesday also
sounded relaxed about the currency's slide, saying: "There is no need to
dramatise recent developments on foreign exchange markets."

Mr Holger Fahrinkrug, Frankfurt-based economist at UBS, commented:
"It was a very soft stance." Policymakers seemed scarcely concerned
about the D-Mark because unit wage costs were falling and import price
rises not being passed on to consumers.

Mr Hausmann said Germany was in contact with its partners in the Group
of Seven leading industrialised countries, which felt currency rates should
not move far out of line with economic fundamentals. That echoed
comments from Mr Theo Waigel, German finance minister, and Mr Hans
Tietmeyer, Bundesbank president.

But strategists now think such remarks were meant chiefly to give the
market a sense of two-way risk, stopping the D-Mark collapsing. Mr
Fahrinkrug said: "Germany is happy with the present level, but a bit
concerned about the momentum and the possibility that this could get out
of control."

The Bundesbank is in any case known to be sceptical of intervention.
When economic fundamentals seem to point one way, central banks
usually cannot move a currency the other way.

Bear Stearns, the US bank, said: "The G7 knows that cash intervention is
pretty pointless."

German exporters are benefiting from the weak currency, as are buyers of
German shares, which have roared ahead this year. Inflation is under
control and without the currency stimulus to exports, the German economy
would have little to keep it going at a time of flat domestic demand.

Since there is a lag of about nine months before exchange rate moves
affect exports, German companies are now profiting from D-Mark levels
at the end of last year. The impact of present rates will carry them through
to early 1998, by which time they hope export growth will be
accompanied by stronger domestic demand and capital investment. Only
then is the Bundesbank likely to consider raising rates.

Mr Tietmeyer said earlier this month that the D-Mark's correction was
"undoubtedly at an end". Mr Brian Marber, an independent currency
analyst, said that if this was true he would eat his own hat, Mr Tietmeyer's
and Mr Tietmeyer's lederhosen.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 17:11)
NGC Unwinds 1.1 Million Ounce Hedge Position
I am pleased to report some "good news"

DENVER, July 28 /PRNewswire/ -- Newmont Gold Company today purchased approximately 1.1 million ounces of gold to offset the hedge position it acquired in the merger with Santa Fe Pacific Gold Corporation. Newmont will realize a gain of approximately $100 million on the transaction.
``The gold market has been caught in a frenzy of fears and phobias in which exaggerated worries over potential central bank sales is overshadowing the strongest physical demand for gold in history,'' said
Ronald C. Cambre, Newmont's Chairman, President and CEO.

``As the lowest cost producer in North America, we think this is a time to reassert our confidence in the metal and provide our shareholders with the opportunity to fully participate in any rally in the gold market.''
Mr. Cambre noted that the ratio of speculators who have sold gold short is ten times that of traders with long positions in the metal. ``This is the widest ratio in a decade and a clear indication that the market is

James P. Riley, managing director of Goldman Sachs, said, ``Gold had one of its best performances in recent days, being up $3 to close at $329, reflecting this oversold position. I would look for continued rallies of this nature in the weeks to come.''

(Mon Jul 28 1997 17:14)
@Internet Trader software
For those of you who haven't already downloaded "internet trader" , I would recommend doing so. The new version has access to the xau and hui indexes. complete quoting, charting , and news service available for all your favorite gold stocks on most major north american exchanges. AND, best of all, IT'S FREE!!!:

(Mon Jul 28 1997 17:29)
on surfing
Well guru zoro says ya gotta stay ahead of the wave...even lead it.
Get on ya surfboard for this one because it's BIG and it's taking me all the way to those GOLDen shores...yeh!
Caution: BIG waves KILL, SELL QUANTUM.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 17:33)
Love Newmont

They did it before and now they did it again.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 18:00)
I've been in and out all day today, so forgive me if this is a repeat story or old news;

Thailand Seeks IMF Rescue Package; Banker Quits

Thailand will turn to the International Monetary Fund for the first time in more than a decade to help shore up its economy and currency. In return for what is likely to be billions of dollars in credit, the IMF may require the government to cut spending and raise taxes. Thailand has to accept the IMF's terms because it spent billions of dollars trying to fend off a devaluation of its currency and is now short of foreign exchange reserves. Thailand is like ``a water tank with a leak,'' said Thai Finance Minister Thanong Bidaya, who asked for the help. The IMF may ``help plug the hole.''

As reported by Bloomberg news.... The beat goes on....

(Mon Jul 28 1997 18:18)
Caved in

Panda: ( 18:00 ) So they're selling the kid's to pay the mortgage. Hope they have second thoughts.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 18:21)
On the close there was one trader who came in buying a large quantity of Gold. He's the one who made the 330.00 print in Aug. He was on one side of the pit and everyone on the other side was selling at 329.50. I would have loved to do that scalpe but I did not find out who was buying until after the close. There were no games being played today. He really was buying a large quantity ( I have no idea how much ) and things were hecktic. Overall there seemed to be alot of poeople willing to sell on the close as the price is down 0.40 on access right now. There was good producer selling at 328.50 ( Aug ) area today. It seems like the market is pushing higher but I question how much higher. OTC Option expiration is tuesday morning around 9:30 NY time. This will impact the markets in the short term. That's all for now.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 18:29)
Dow/Gold ratio has dropped to 24.65. The July 11 high of 25.22 still holds. Did the ratio signal a turn on July 11th? Are we on the downside of a historic spike? Stay tuned.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 18:35)
@ The Public Library
Panda: Regards your 15:18 post of the NASDAQ chart, looks to me as though it has just about completed 9 waves up from the June, l994 low. : )

(Mon Jul 28 1997 18:41)
@ On The Edge:
The XAU index is pressing its nose on the 50 day Moving Average line. If it can get thru that line tomorrow and also 97.90 on the index, I say "Pop Goes The Weasel".

(Mon Jul 28 1997 19:02)
At 15:35 I passed on a report that IMC Global is preparing a takeover of Freeport-McMoRan. That is true, but the radio report implied it was Freeport-McMoran Copper and Gold. It isn't; according to NBR this evening, it is the fertilizer company ( Freeport-McMoRan ) and not FCX.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 19:08)
Another way to become competitive

DM story from Canadian Press.
We may seing an anomaly, gold and the $ going in the same direction. Hope the Europeans hedge their dollar bets with some gold purchases.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 19:13)
Glenn ( 18:21 ) As usual a very interesting and informative post!...

(Mon Jul 28 1997 19:24)
Long Range missiles stolen from Albanian Army base.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 19:24)
Glenn: How can a local tell if a producer is selling as opposed to another seller?

(Mon Jul 28 1997 19:33)
Philippines to import 500,000 tons of rice due to el Nino.
Also, Peso remains volatile.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 19:39)
Skylark - there was selling around 328.50 ( Aug ) as we tried to get throught that area a few times withiut success until late in the day. After the close I read a news report that stated it was producer selling. Overall you are correct that it is tough knowing who is buying and who is selling. I have a chart that a well informed clerk gave me telling me who each trader represents. I have no idea how he knew other than that was his job and he has been on the floor for years. I am slowing learning who's doing the buying and selling and what it means.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 19:47)
GLOBAL ASSETS:GLO.V I think this will be a real winner,especially in a fall rally.Recommend you position yourself now and do your due diligence
by contacting Thor Gauti IR Manager at 1-800-792-3834 in Vancouver.Here is a copy of latest press release.



JULY 24, 1997

GLS Global Assets: Agreement With Canadian-Bolivian
Resources Ltd.

VICTORIA, BRITISH COLUMBIA--GLS Global Assets Ltd. is pleased to
announce that it has entered into an agreement with Canadian-
Bolivian Resources Ltd. for a 75 percent interest in the Luchuza
( "Cable Mountain" ) property in Bolivia by making a US$25,000
payment to the property owner and incurring US$100,000 in
exploration expenditures. Canadian-Bolivian Resources Ltd. must
incur 12.5 percent of the next US$500,000 in exploration
expenditures, after which it will retain a 25 percent working
interest subject to dilution to a 12.5 percent interest in the

The "Cable Mountain" property is located within easy access and
lies approximately 50km south and east of La Paz. The property
hosts 14 known separate quartz veins within a 150-200m wide
structure, traceable for approximately 2.0km along strike and over
200m in vertical extent. Several of the veins are currently being
mined for gold by independent local miners. No systematic
evaluation of the property has ever been documented. GLS Global
Assets Ltd. will commence a program of mapping, trenching and
geochemical sampling within the coming weeks. The result of these
surveys will be used for future drill target definition.

Analyses from initial chip and channel sampling of three
properties in northern Bolivia, Uyuni, Quinza Cruz, and Secunda,
have been received. No additional exploration will be conducted
on the Secunda property. Two of the properties ( Uyuni and Quinza
Cruz ) returned several highly anomalous gold values from quartz
vein structures, indicating that further evaluations are
warranted. Sampling from narrow veins on the Uyuni and Quinza
Cruz properties yielded INAA analytical results up to 18gm/t gold
and 51.8gm/t gold, respectively.

Respectfully submitted on behalf of the Board.

S. Cedric Steele, President



GLS Global Assets Ltd.
S. Cedric Steele
( 250 ) 388-6258
( 250 ) 383-3386 ( FAX )
E-mail: Website

The Vancouver Stock Exchange has not reviewed and does not accept
responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.




You may change your service options at anytime by visiting:


(Mon Jul 28 1997 19:48)
Glenn: Thanks for the reply. I wonder if that Buyer was NGC as it reported that it purchased over 1 million ounces today.

George Cole
(Mon Jul 28 1997 19:49)
Newmont hedge covering
Bob: With Newmont's announcement today about covering hedges looks like the big boys are starting to heed your advice. Hopefully this trickle of hedge-covering moves will snowball into a stampede that will deal the still heavily exposed shorts a mortal blow.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 20:05)
Nazi GOLD @ Bank of Canada
One Central Bank, helping out another Central Bank,with looted gold ?
The Finance Minister, will investigate, the Bank of Canada.?
Get serious EH !

Monday July 28 1997
* Bank of Canada appoints investigator into Nazi gold link *
" Over a 16 month period ending in August 1940, some 2,154 metric tonnes
of gold owned by the *Bank of England* were shipped to Ottawa ( Bank of
Canada ) for safekeeping. At the peak in 1943, 1,429 tonnes made up of
114,000 gold bars sat in the Ottawa ( Bank of Canada ) vault.....a pile
the size of a city bus."

( The reporter references Ottawa, I expect it should be Bank of Canada. )

(Mon Jul 28 1997 20:06)

Vieserre 7/27/97 @ ( 17:52 ) I always read your excellent post, but could it be, that those who trade on the LBMA are the extremely well to do, the chartered banks and departments of government whose gold reserves are not reported on the books?

If my thinking is correct, these are major investors and the high activity on the LBMA seems to prove it.

IMHO, I suggest that this gold always comes home to roost. By this, I mean that a good safe investment may allow them to sell, but after its termination the wealth goes back into gold, through the LBMA.

I believe that very little of this gold, when sold finds its way to alleviate gold demand ( to make up the supply deficit ) , but only changes between strong hands at cash on the barrel head.

The thing that troubles; even if totally wrong in my reasoning and this gold was sold into demand, why would they sell at low prices, while knowing that this gold would never come back to the LBMA; where they deal in upmost privacy.

IMHO, even the scrap and other gold that makes up the present demand would normally command a higher price.

This is very perplexing?

(Mon Jul 28 1997 20:11)
George S. Cole:

It is interesting that at the same time Newmont is covering a big hedge there is still plenty of producer forward selling coming in the market at the 330 level. I've heard this number from two different sources so believe that it is significant. There seems to be a strong desire by some to get the market to 325 by tommorrows london fix for option expiration purposes. We shall see. Outside of the overnight options positioning it looks like there will be a showdown at the 330 level. Reading Glenn's post that locals were happy to sell at 32950 confirms that they must be holding sell orders above the market. This is what gives them their 'confidence'. A break through 330 will probably get us to 340 in a heart beat. I'm a hold'in tight.

With regards to the other precious metals things are looking very bullish indeed. My metals desk talks about silver being a dog with very little interest. This is very good. I love owning dogs that go higher even though no one is interested. Ditto for Pa. The market is very quiet but it just keeps pushing higher. It looks like a replay of the coffee situation. First one spike up, then a big selloff with lots of good rational, then a realization that the fundamentals haven't changed a bit and the final panic squeeze. The longer the blowoff is delayed, the bigger its going to be. Who knows, maybe that famous Kitco number 325 will come into play in a decidedly unexpected way!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 20:12)
@... GSC
The Big Boys help at this time would be most welcome

(Mon Jul 28 1997 20:16)
skylark - I can not imagine that Newmont had a 10,000 contract short position on COMEX which it covered today. My guess is that it had the short position on the OTC market and what ever Gold dealer they dealt with then of set some of that risk onto other large traders they deal with and the rest on COMEX. This could explain the mnove up today and if they did it all at once it could explain why we are down right now. The buying from them was done and the market is now settling back down ( Waiting for the next buyer? ) .

(Mon Jul 28 1997 20:21)
Re selling by locals - Today's action had nothing to do with Locals! Locals were NOT the main event. Other traders handling orders were the buyers and sellers. Last week I posted about a local selling a few contracts below the bid. He is NOT in the trading pit everyday. In fact he is rarely in the trading pits and was not there today. Overall locals had minimal impact on the Gold market today.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 20:23)
One has to respect Wolanchuck's opinions, but not sure where he is looking to find too many bears; maybe the gold market 8- )

There was a non-confirmation today between the Dow and the broader markets. This seems to agree with your high tech struggle to advance.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 20:40)
good post

Kiwi: ( 14:10 ) So they have her singing the blues, or was it fermented fruit.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:06)
AN ENIGMA WRAPPED IN AN ANOMALY is the theme of a meticulous dissection of Central Bank Gold Operations & Its Ramifications. New analyst goes by the handle of Red Baron:

(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:08)
6pak - I think I've about drained one of you tonight, ( if you get mt drift ) , and I can't seem to get these numbers to jive.
" Over a 16 month period ending in August 1940, some 2,154
metric tonnes
of gold owned by the *Bank of England* were shipped to Ottawa
( Bank of
Canada ) for safekeeping. At the peak in 1943, 1,429 tonnes
made up of
114,000 gold bars sat in the Ottawa ( Bank of Canada ) vault."

If 2,154 tonnes were shipped, how come at the PEAK only 1,429 tonnes were sitting in the vault. I thought usuary was against the law in Canada, especially in those days of Canada the Good!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:11)
New Age Economics ... Alan Greenspan, cannot explain what is going on...
It's easy try 511 billion of foreign lending to the USA in 1995 and 1996.
A couple of hundred billion here and a couple of hundred billion there and soon you are talking real money.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:11)
"Get the facts first. You can distort them later."
-----Mark Twain

Bill Bennett
(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:14)
Platinum & Palladium are definitely in an uptrend.
Does Stillwater have any significant reserves?

(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:15)
Mooney: The gold was shipped to Canada to pay for war material
made in U.S.A. and Canada for the U.K. I may refere you to the book
"Operation Fish" which gives the complete details of the entire

(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:23)
@ Pounding The Pound:
Information concerning the pounding of the Pound today at

(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:24)
New Shorts!!!!!
Savage - Each and every gold rally is a new opportunity to short. Like it or not, gold is heading down. There is zero reason for gold to rise, and every reason for it to fall. This should bring glee to Kitcocians, as they will all have plenty of chances to buy gold at much lower prices.

Platinum, hmmmmmmmm. Those of you that have read my posts in the past know that I am very bullish on platinum. Look for continued and sustained gains. The new trading range for the next year or two will $430 - $550 with spikes above $600. The fundamentals havent changed a bit. Now that Russian shipments have resumed, the stark realizations is: there isnt enough of the stuff to be had.

Silver is the question mark. I fear it may be weighed down by gold, but there is plenty of interest there to give us modest but profitable trades. I remember, not so long ago, when 4.60 was support, now, alas, it is a target. Once the traditional summer doldrums are over, we should see some good rallies in silver. I will watch the downside and employs stops to protect.

Continued fear of CB gold sales, as well as soaring equities, surging economy, low interest rates, and a strong dollar will doom gold for the foreseeable future.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:24)
Go to the Kitco 24 Hour gold chart. Look at the pattern tonight vs: the previous pattern. It is uncannily identical, as though someone has a computer doing the trading.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:25)
Reserves a'plenty
Bill Bennett - SWC has 1.2M oz. proven reserves and another 20M+ probable reserves. Their production is roughly 300k oz./year at a ratio of 3.5:1 palladium to platinum.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:27)
To 6pack:
The gold was not shipped to Ottawa or the Bank of Canada.
The Gold, including ALL GOLD BARS, GOLD COINS, Securities,
from the U.K. and South Africa and Australia and New Zeeland, including all wealth belonging to Great Britain was shipped the
the deep Vaults of the Sun Life Building in Montreal. It being
the only suffiently large and secure facilitiy available.
All the wealth was then sold ( traded ) for war materials.
After it was all gone, Roosevelt ( the American People ) agreed
to extend credit to Great Britain to fight the war!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:33)
RJ: Are you not impressed with these several days of positive action for gold, in spite of the strongest dollar in years? Some of this buying is coming from foreign sources who are selling weak local currencies. I did a calculation last night here that shows gold is now priced $38.85 in 1966 dollars. Some obviously think that is a bargain.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:37)
You would think that people who trade in metals would know the proper symbols from the periodic chart of the elements:
Au = gold
Ag = silver
Pt = platinum
Pd = palladium

(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:41)
No Strength

Donald - Mostly short covering with very limited new buying. That fact that the Asians and Indians sat this last drop out is strong evidence that they believe they will find their bargains lower. As for the $38 gold, a pretty good argument that gold is an atrocious buy and hold investment. Gold WILL fall, tis true

George Cole
(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:42)
Donald: The time to worry about the yellow will be when RJ and the multude who think like him turn bullish. That will not happen until prices have risen much higher.

DA: With Newmont stepping up to the plate, can others be far behind?

(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:43)
Reserves P.S.
Bill Bennett - These reserves were based on platinum price of $376 per oz. and palladium at $125 per oz.!!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:44)
Walt- Thanks! Always love an historical read! But 6pak's numbers still don't jive. Maybe after I digest the book. Hmmmm? RJ - You may be right ...or...? But just one question. How far is the forseeable future as far as you're concerned? Mike Sheller - comments? cherokee? George? APH has given the most precise predictions to date; and to date he is the most accurate. Doesn't mean that the tide may not turn sooner than the present perfect pundits' prescient predictions!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:47)
He He Heee Heeeee Hee He He He HEEEEEE!
Commissar, Komitet Gosudarstvenno Bezopasnosti: You havent heard the last of me !!!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:51)
George - I guess I just get in line and follow the crowd. Its very sad that I am so mistaken.

Mooney - Early next year or after G7 CBs sell more gold......

(Mon Jul 28 1997 21:59)
GEORGE COLE: When I read that news about Newmont covering for Santa Fe it ocurred to me that Bema, which I own and had thought of as an attractive take over candidate, might not be so attractive after all if they are encumbered with forward obligations.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:00)
RJ - You missed the point of Ben Franklins' message from the grave that I posted here a couple of weeks ago - that being that if you offer something of value to people too cheaply they will think it is worthless ( or worth less! ) and not buy. IT IS ALWAYS TRUE THAT AT THE BOTTOM MOST DON'T BELIEVE IT AND ARE WAITING TO BUY LOWER!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:02)
Japans divesture of $US assets will lead to collapse in US bond market, devaluation of US dollar & increase in gold price. Insightful and prophetic. Must RELOAD Guru Milhouse page:

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:02)
Dear Senor Vronsky
If you want me to read something, please give the URL that goes directly to the analysis/comment you want read, not the URL to the main page. It's too much work to figure out which one you were talking about once I get to the main page.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:04)
Mooney - Good point.......

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:07)
Att: 2 - Many Thanks for your suggestion. When possible we always try to give the exact URL. However, some of our frequent postings require that the previous page be RELOADED, otherwise you would be surfing your cache - and therefore would be seeing only last week's posting.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:09)
taking flight
RJ: rhetorically speaking, of course?

Off to London to face the music, no GOLD there either!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:11)
Alas our poor poor RJ believes there is a surging economy with record bankruptcies/highest debt in history/ would he have believed the story of the Soviet Economy which its govt touted as good growth, low inflation, full employment and even a trade surplus. Ah yes but they were playing with funny money and figures/ which we all know well/ anything to maintain confidence!! SOUND FAMILIAR? The stk mkt parabolic highs only indicate more potential ferocity of the downside and I believe with every investment of money with higher expectations that the surge will continue/ all the greater the crash and dislocation when the moment of truth inevitably occurs.

Gold just the opposite/ the world hates it and is record short in face of it being in the smallest ratio of gold to money stock in history. Gold is in shortage and the CB stash is pennies compared to the paper created. Even a scintilla of paper into to gold and bye bye. Its fun to watch this.
I wish RJ and his shorts gute luck mein freund!!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:14)
RJ: In a sense you are right about gold at $38 was a lousy investment in 1966. But so were stocks. You don't have your money back yet in purchasing power terms. And to top it off, you owe 28% Cap Gains tax on both the stocks and the gold, when you had no gain at all.

The only way to show all the governments of the world how much damage they are doing is to push the price of gold through the roof. So, as a good citizen, you should swing over to the long side as a public service. We will forgive your previous transgressions.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:15)
RJ - I also think you missed the point of Donald's 21:33, that being that, for instance, a person could have sold their Beverly Hills mansion in 1966, converted the money to gold, buried the gold in the back yard, dug the gold up in 1997, and repurchased the home ( mansion ) for the same amount ( weight ) of gold that they buried in 1966. In the interim some other sucker would have paid the upkeep, repairs and taxes.
Gold therefore equals the ultimate store of value.
ACW - Put that in your pipe and smoke it! ( Same goes to you cherokee! )

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:16)
Savage - I'm not sure I understand your question. If you're wanting to buy Dec Gold at 336 on a buy stop ( currently 333 ) the upside is limited to 340. I'd rather wait until the market closes up above 340. Your down side is about 325, to risk $900 to make $400 isn't a very good ratio. As of yet we are not in a bull market like the S&P, when it seems like you can buy any where and make money. Wait for the market to come back to you and not you to it. You'll have less risk and bigger winners.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:19)
@ I Told You So:
To Techkies:

See, I told you so, the XAU Index does have its nose pressed up against the 50 Days Moving Average. I say tomorrow it goes through the M.A. and the 98 area and we are off to the races. Let see tommorw at 9:30 EST we have Gold Options expiration. Well, maybe, we also have the expiration of the Golden Bear.

At the Retrieve Mode:

1. ) Click on the down arrow.

2. ) then click on the Daily Chart

3. ) and finally the Submit Button.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:24)
RJ, you say: There is zero reason for gold to rise, and every reason for it to fall.
Where do you get zero reason for Gold to rise? There are many reasons
valid reasons for Gold to rise. However there may be more, or stronger reasons for it to fall at the moment. Currently the balance of information may tip in favor of a fall, but the momentum could easily be shifted the other way, and no-one can guarantee that this can't happen.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:25)
As some have stated here recently the perception and attitude has been slowly starting to do a 180 lately and this is just another minor example ( excerpt also ) from a service that e-mails me. ( GMT )
Global Minerals & Technologies

GMT remains very bullish on its outlook on gold. With the U.S. dollar and
stock market surging you might expect gold prices to drop. BUT..... the US
dollar and markets have overtaken currency fundamentals and corporate
profits, there will probably be a pullback in one or both which will
contribute to a much awaited rally in gold. If the US$ climbs any higher,
expect some retaliation from the Japanese.

Thats it for this weeks macro-economics 101."

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:25)
My it's a quiet cloudless night
G'nite all. A very nice day all around, wasn't it?

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:29)
BYRON: Were you the person who put me on to this XAU Ratio chart? Notice what happens every time the green line touches the red line.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:32)
BYRON: Were you the person who put me on to this XAU Ratio chart? Notice what happens every time the green line touches the red line.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:42)
@ Guilty As Charged:
Donald: I plead "Guilty".

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:46)
BYRON: You can only be considered guilty of being very helpful.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:52)
Nick's 10:15 URL should be read by all serious gold traders, investors and RJ's!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:55)
The "soros storm" seems over!whewwwwwwwwww!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:55)
Mooney @ They shoot horses don't they
Mooney @ 21:08: The numbers don't jive ?

Sorry Mooney, don't shoot the messenger, I only referenced a web site,
Go get the reporter. Go Get Him Mooney : ) : ) : )

Take Care, eh!

(Mon Jul 28 1997 22:56)
@ The Public Library
To All: Something from my favorite writer: Albert Jay Nock:

(Mon Jul 28 1997 23:01)
APH; RJ; & GLENN: THANK YOU for responding to my questions.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 23:09)
Central Banks @ Responsibility
Walt @ 21:08: Thanks for the information, I had not heard of the book,
"Operation Fish" nor, the information regarding the Sun Life Building,
in Montreal.

The question, was this gold transfered between Central Banks, and not
under the control of the Ministry of Finance, resulting, in the fact,
that the Canadian citizen, can not be held responsible for the actions
of the Central Banks.

Take Care.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 23:10)
@ Time To Get Ready To Go Home:
And this will be the last one tonight. It was written by Mr. Nock I believe in the 1930's also. A cure for the libertarian blues:

I just surprisingly discovered these articles by Albert Jay Nock on the Internet about 1/2 hour ago while doing some surfing. What a surprise.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 23:12)
6Pak - c'mon man, ehhh! I toll yuu Ii wass drinkin' da suds en thnn yuu goes ann cuuueses moi of shuttin' da messangger? S'cuizze mee butt I'ssse innecent.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 23:17)
@the scene
WW -- You are being a bit harsh I think. The proper way to play commodities IS to sell at resistance and buy at support. That way it only need travel against you very little before you reverse the trade. Optionally, wait for a break above, but even that is not totally infallible.

Given the currency instabilities in the western Pacific area, you have to admit that this has helped to support the dollar. The Feds must be 'pleased' about this. Perhaps they 'participated' in it somehow. A bit of strength in the metals should be expected under this currency scenario. Will it last for long? Short term, it depends on what it does at/after options expiration! Slightly longer term, it depends a lot on how the currency mess over there precipitates. Then, it depends on how the stox do. Personally, being more of a day trader than not, I do not care as I take it as it comes. I'm sure that those of you who are longer term investors do care. That means you might have to chew your nails a bit.

I don't know if it'll go lower. I don't know that it'll go higher. If it does, there are areas of resistance where one pays more attention. It is at one now! Times are NOW at hand for it to prove itself worthy or not. If it makes this hurdle, then there is another fairly close by. Let's just say that Rome wasn't built in a day. Let us also say that the funeral pyre may not be extinguished yet.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 23:20)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

It's GREAT seeing Fidelity's Precious Metals & American Gold
being the TOP sector percentage performers of the day!

George Cole
(Mon Jul 28 1997 23:33)
gold rally
Sieve Kaplan reports rumors that the Australian Reserve Bank may repurchase some of the gold it sold. Has anybody else heard this?

Why is this gold rally different from the many rallies that have fizzled over the past 18 months? Answer -- it is taking place in the face of very bad news -- a surging dollar and strong stock markets around the world. Also, sentiment is considerably more negative than it was during the previous rally attempts, while gold and gold stocks are considerably cheaper, both absolutely and relative to the overall stock market.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 23:38)
ABX sure does look like a bottom.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 23:41)
@ The Public Library
Nite all. Time to go home and re-boot.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 23:43)
: ) : ) : )

(Mon Jul 28 1997 23:53)
O.C. semi-demi PL guru dude...
Oh yes! The other white the NORTH. That lady of LARGE dimensions is warming the chords daily. Her final tune will be her best yet...
Anyway, you seem invigorated ( from a posting point of view ) . Did you get out of town? Did any strange cars or lend lease trucks follow you out of town? If you were riding your Harley it must have been quite the easy ditch. I am sure you will let us know of your saga.

By the way, how do you get the ~, `, ^, etc. above the letters? Did I miss that day in basic typing? Is this a dumb question? I would truly like to know?


(Mon Jul 28 1997 23:53)
To 6pack:
The gold was part of the total wealth of Great Britain. It was
liquidated by Great Britain in Montreal ( changed into Dollars )
to execute the war. Roosevelt refused to ask the American Congress
( people ) to supply war material on credit to Great Britain as long
as Britain still had wealth in the form of gold and securities.
The gold shipped from Great Britain alo included the gold from
Norway, Denmark and other Nazi occupied areas. It had been rescued
with great difficulties prior to the Nazi occupation of these countries. France was very fortunate. They had ordered 500 million worth
of war material from the U.S.A. but lost out to the Nazis before
the material was shipped. Great Britain took delivery of the material
and paid for it. France rescued their gold to their coloninal dependents
in North Africa and West Indies. They retained all their gold during the
war and after the war!.

(Mon Jul 28 1997 23:58)
On Top Of Aussie Gold.Sales
REF: "George Cole ( gold rally ) : Steve Kaplan reports rumors that the Australian Reserve Bank may repurchase some of the gold it sold."

In the event that gold continues to rise, the managers of the Australian Central Bank should receive the American treatment for gross incompetence: THEY SHOULD BE TARDED AND FEATHERED!!!!!!! -- AND PUT ON DISPLAY FOR THE BAFOONS THAT THEY ARE!!!!