Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 00:12)
Here is a little something for your late night reading. Brzilian stocks

(Tue Jul 29 1997 00:26)
"Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 10:47
gunrunner ( ) : "
This is a perfect example of why the Canadian armed forces ( and the good ole U.S. of A. ) can STILL cut back on expenditures!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 00:43)
Hepcat - Don't forget to take your pills!, and Goodnight Glenn, wherever you might be!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 01:06)
Byron - AJ Nock. Interesting, a new one for me, buried gem.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 01:15)
Whoooo Ahhhhh
WW -
Thank you for explaining my belief system so eloquently. Ive been searching for the words, but words arent really my thing. You really nailed it. Perhaps you could e-mail me to keep me up to date on my philosophy.

Donald -
Public Service, Schmublic Service. Thank you for the forgiveness.

Mooney -
Let me see Store value instead of create wealth. Hmmmmmm, interesting concept. You mean instead of finding a vehicle that gives a 10% return and then watching it double every seven years.? $38 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = $608. I dont know about you guys, but Ill take the $608. Ill use it to buy platinum. We already had this discussion. The numbers do not support buying and holding gold at any point in history - excluding times of crisis. Lets see in 1966 you could buy a very nice pipe for $38. How many can you buy with $608? Put THAT in your pipes.

More Gold -
What I mean is: Zero, nil, zilch, zip, nothing, infinitely little, naught, nix, love ( in tennis ) , strike-out, goose egg, blank, cipher, nullity, nothingness, nonexistence, insubstantiality, none, nary, absence, vacuum, nadir, rock bottom, etc. ( By the way, Rock Bottom was also a nemesis of Felix The Cat )

Mooney @ Yours: "should be read by all serious gold traders, investors and RJ's!"
- Since when was RJ a plural ???

VERY MAD AUSSIE!!!! ( On Top Of Aussie Gold.Sales ) :
They will buy it back!!! At $250!!!

Demi God -
 ant telln.

Lan Man
(Tue Jul 29 1997 01:35)
Closing Bell P M s
COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended higher across the
board Monday, despite a fresh surge in the U.S. dollar overnight,
and platinum group metals ( PGMs ) ended higher despite the
resumption of Russian exports this month.

The U.S. dollar surged to a seven-and-a-half-year high against the
deutschemark overnight as well as a seven-year high in the U.S.
dollar trade weighted index. "But the rallies in gold and silver
still look mostly like short covering by funds and proprietary
traders," Refco New York analyst Tim Porter said.

December gold's five-day moving average crossed above its 21-day
moving average at the close Monday, for the first time since May.
COMEX gold estimated total volume Monday was a solid 78,000 lots,
but COMEX gold open interest fell a further 6,924 lots Friday to
200,869 contracts, continuing the decline from 18 month highs at
222,069 on July 16.

Meanwhile, COMEX September silver ended up 3.8 cents at $4.358 an
ounce, with the September/December spread narrowing further to 5.5
cents. September silver remains trapped in its $4.20-4.40 range,
after spot silver saw three year lows earlier this month.

"In the last month, the two highest volume days in silver came on
big washout days, while the lowest volume day came on the biggest
attempt to rally, which even failed to hold on the day, and that
tells us the trend is down," CRB analyst Terry Roggensack said.

Platinum group metals ( PGM ) prices continued to recover Monday from
the two month lows seen in early July, despite the resumption of
Russian exports in the past week. PGM futures on the Tokyo
Commodity Exchange ( TOCOM ) rose sharply again overnight to their
highest levels in two months, helped by the stronger dollar/yen

But news that Toyota Motor Corp plans to introduce low emission
vehicle models later this year that will use more platinum group
metals in their autocatalysts than existing models, also helped. On
the supply side, the first Russian shipments of palladium and
platinum, under a new contract with Japanese trade houses, has now
arrived in Japan, but reports overnight indicated no further metal
was due to arrive in Japan under the contracts until August 7.

For the full text story, see

COMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.

Aug97 326.00 330.00 326.00 329.50 +3.00 414.50 314.60
Oct97 327.50 332.20 327.50 331.50 +3.20 426.50 316.80
Dec97 329.30 334.00 329.30 333.40 +3.40 456.50 318.50
Feb98 331.90 333.80 331.90 335.50 +3.40 424.00 322.50
Apr98 334.50 336.00 334.50 337.50 +3.30 408.40 325.00
Jun98 337.00 337.00 337.00 339.70 +3.30 470.00 327.50
Dec98 343.40 345.00 345.00 346.60 +3.20 506.80 334.50
Est. Sales 38407

COMEX - 5,000 troy oz. _ cents per troy oz.
Jul97 434.00 434.00 432.50 433.20 +3.50 631.00 418.50
Sep97 432.50 438.00 432.00 435.80 +3.80 576.00 418.00
Dec97 438.50 444.00 438.00 442.00 +3.80 701.90 424.00
Mar98 446.50 448.50 446.50 448.20 +3.80 573.00 432.00
May98 451.00 451.00 451.00 452.00 +3.80 564.00 437.00
Dec98 464.50 467.00 464.50 466.10 +3.80 752.10 448.50
Est. Sales 12445

NYMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz
Sep97 190.50 195.00 188.90 193.60 +3.95 194.00 128.75
Dec97 181.65 187.00 181.65 u186.60 +4.95 183.50 120.25
Est. Sales 2524

COMEX - 50 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
Jul97 427.00 436.10 427.00 435.30 +3.60 473.80 353.50
Oct97 419.00 427.00 419.00 425.30 +8.60 429.00 355.50
Jan98 404.70 414.00 403.00 412.30 +7.60 424.00 360.00
Est. Sales 1637

(Tue Jul 29 1997 02:07)
May be of significance

High transshipments of gold through Korea during first six months of 1997. Imports of 9.77 million ounces followed by exports of 9.2 million ounces. Story is that Koreans sell and then invest money in high interest domestic paper. DO THEY HAVE TO IMPORT TO DO THAT???? More important is who is buying, Japan, China or is on a round trip back to Austrailia.

True Sidekick
(Tue Jul 29 1997 03:44)
@The time is near
The time is upon us to get on the gold rocket ship. As reported earlier, July was the turn around month and August will be the fireworks. Very sad to say, the big one will take place in Japan on Aug 17th. Got that- write it down. The earthquake will be a very bad one ( 8+ ) centered off Tokyo in the ocean. Of course, the learned Kitcoites no what that event would mean for the fate of the US dollar and US Treasury Bond market. Expect an overreaction in US T-Bond interest rates to carry above the 10% level. Expect the US stock market and world markets to fall in excess of 40%. Expect the price of gold to soar above the $600 level. Gold stocks will soar along with gold, especially the unhedged seniors and gold rich juniors such as Bema Gold. Euro Nevada and Franco Nevada are two other great stocks to own! Those who are short gold, beware!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 03:56)
Mother's Report
There is a pregnant mothers network/group here in Japan who practice "communicating with their babies." Babies, as it is well known, have access to supernatural sources of knowledge which they lose shortly after birth. The mother's group newsletter published the date of 15 August for the big earthquake, based on prenatal reports of babies to their mothers. These were apparently independent geographically dispersed reports - lending therefore, substantial credibility to the babies' claims.

I requested that the babies be queried by their mothers regarding the various answer from them yet.

This is not a joke about the newsletter - in case anyone wonders if I believe it:


True Sidekick
(Tue Jul 29 1997 04:03)
Jojo: I have FOUR words for you.

Gaa Gaa Goo Goo!

The Last Goldbug
(Tue Jul 29 1997 04:14)
S. Korean Gold Conduit

Looks like gold shiped thru S.Korea is about 1.7 times the 167 tonne Austrailia is reputed to have sold, so far for 1997. Wonder whats going on?

(Tue Jul 29 1997 04:16)
@Who Knows
JACK: Your question re where is all that gold going that is going into Korea? My guess, and that is all we can do, is it is going to China. It is part of China's power plan. China is to the 90's what Germany was to the 30's. China will be the 21st century power as the U. S. was the power in the 20th century. We have read here that China will be the number one manufacturing country in the world by 2020. They are devoting a great deal to their "peacekeeping" efforts - remember how Teddy Roosevelt was builing up our fleet in the early 1900's? That was to the military what technology is now-a la missiles - on defense as well as offense. Reagan was right on with his star war efforts which we of course did not follow. Some day that will be regretted. So, my take is we should be paying more attention to China's intentions re the world. China knows gold may well be the power when all the paper folds in the next financial crisis. When? Who knows. At least the Goldbugs here are following the Boy Scout motto.

Goldbug Omega -1
(Tue Jul 29 1997 04:34)
RJ: We certainly agree on WW. We do not, however, agree on gold - at this point in time ( love that phrase, thanks Dick ) . I happen to believe, like many here, the house of derivities and paper money backed by "the full faith and credit" is close to falling. The mania in the markets is exhibit one. We are close to crisis time!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 04:34)
I wouldn't worry about China's Military

Goldbug23: I used to work on projects siting home bases for mobile ICBM's. They are all over the western states.
As big as these babies were, they could go anywhere real fast, unload and then run. I know that's no consolation for those who can't run. I'm sure that we still have these babies ready and they can be anywhere.
If we had to return to the manufacturing base, it to would happen real fast.
Right now, let the gold price rise.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 04:42)
JACK: I trust you are right about our missiles. The enemy ( whoever ) also knows about them and can target them, just as you had targets. I am a worrier, and that has kept me out of trouble many times. Old IBM's THINK should be THINK AHEAD on defense.

George Cole
(Tue Jul 29 1997 04:57)
True Sidekick: I'm quite bullish, but sure hope it doesn't take the kind of diaster you forecast to trigger the golden fireworks. If your prediction comes true, it will be one of the greatest prophecies ever, but I have grave doubts.

Perhaps you can enlighten us about why you think this quake will occur precisely on August 17.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 06:07)
If any of you missed my brilliant posts last night there was a reason for my silence as lightning struck the line leading into the house...Spark city and poof went the power...kudos to power co.for commin out ar 5 AM ta fix it!..EBN Gold down 1.12....Silver @ unch....

(Tue Jul 29 1997 06:12)
...and a strong dollar will doom gold for the foreseeable future...
RJ since when has there ever been a "foreseeable future" :} the closest that one can come to this may be... History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes ___Mark Twain, ( so beware of falling equities, hardhat area ) .

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jul 29 1997 06:24)
Mooney, you were right. I can't believe it. Gold IS an incredible store of value. Just yesterday I let Pepi out into the backyard in the morning to do his business. He starts digging frantically in a spot where I had strategically buried some Kruggerrands about a year ago ( just in case the government suddenly confiscates the patio furniture and anything else made of metal, you know ) . Well what does Pepi unearth, but a section of red Spanish roofing tile! I comes over and say, as all dog owners inevitably do, "What's that Pepi, what you got boy? Issa goood boy, whatchu got?" And then, before you know it, me an the missus, an Pep, are down there on the ground digging with our forepaws wildly. Well, Mooney, to make a long story short, though I know you'd like to savor all the details, the scene here at the end of the day is unbelievable. Simply unbelieveable. The cranes, and earthmovers, the Lilco truckis, and the Asplundh tree crane cats, not to mention all the RE brokers looking for the listing... For there, in our humble backyard, exposed by all that digging, sits glistening in the Long Island sun a magnificent Beverly Hills mansion! Just like you said. Now that's what I call a store of value. I gotta call Blanchard right away.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 06:49)
JIN ( 22:55 ) The proposed IMF bailout of the Thai financial system sure turned the currency markets-SET around in a hurry!...The Baht soared Tuesday and your Ringgit did pretty good too....Taiwan had the only weak currency...

(Tue Jul 29 1997 07:31)
Mike Sheller, that Pepi is some kind of dog--kind of a shaggy alchemist sounds like to me. Do you suppose he could change my Candian Maple Leafs into a some Bre-X stock certificates?

(Tue Jul 29 1997 07:31)
@Chilling Out

Good morning all. July is about over. Good riddance!! The dog days of August are just about here. It's time to get Serius about gold!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 07:36)
wgc.....another sale?!
good day!read this from the news,try this:
abt thai situation...the thai central bank chief just stepped down today.though the help from japan,not sure whether can cure the wound?cause think that s.e asia...HURT TOO MUCH!NEWS FROM BANGKOK POST:
the local gold /jewellery markets is low....sick !!
anyway..take it easy!
rgds jin

(Tue Jul 29 1997 07:37)

(Tue Jul 29 1997 07:39)
Mornin Tort!...Just sent ya a missive....Where the hell is the joke?? Hi JIN and thanks for posting for me as I don't have much to say as usual...

(Tue Jul 29 1997 07:40)
Joke of the morning
Hi, Ted, good to see you up mentally ruminating on the state of the markets. We've been up to our ankles in water here in Albuquerque--some of you may think Albuquerque is in the desert--I've got news for you The Taco Belt is changing into a tropical paradise. That was not the joke of the day, but the following will pass as such:

A wealthy couple had planned to go out for the evening.
The woman of the house decided to give their butler,
Jeeves, the rest of the night off.

She said they would be home very late, and that he should
just enjoy his evening.

As it turned out, however, the wife wasn't having a good
time at the party, so she came home early, alone. Her
husband had to stay there, as several of his important
clients were there.

As the woman walked into her house, she saw Jeeves
sitting by himself in the dining room. She called for him to
follow her, and led him into the master bedroom. She then
closed and locked the door.

She looked at him and smiled. "Jeeves," she said. "Take
off my dress."

He did this carefully. "Jeeves," she continued. "Take off
my stockings and garter." He silently obeyed her.

"Jeeves," she then said. "Remove my bra and panties."

As he did this, the tension continued to mount. She looked
at him and then said, "Jeeves, if I ever catch you wearing
my clothes again, you're fired!"

(Tue Jul 29 1997 07:41)
Hi JIN! That's OK my friend.....Does Gold pull back at the 329.50 level today???

(Tue Jul 29 1997 07:41)
Ted, we are thinking as one again. I'm off to the mailbox. I think I hear dogs howling out there.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 07:45)
Joburg Gold Index up .7%

(Tue Jul 29 1997 07:54)
Donald, thanks for the link to financial indexes.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 07:54)
gold down a bit...
let see whether hold or xxxxxx!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 07:59)
of gold
Come on baby! I showed you my COD now lets see your WAD

(Tue Jul 29 1997 07:59)
Ted, watch that seagull. It may drop something in your eye.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 08:00)
@ Your Service

There are strange things done, 'neath the midnight sun, by the men who moil for gold. The Arctic Trails have their secret tales, that would make your blood run cold. The Northern Lights have seen queer sights, but the queerest they ever did see, it was on the marge at Lake LeBarge, they cremated Sam McGee.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jul 29 1997 08:02)
@ the Tortfeasor
TORT: re turning Maple Leafs into Bre-X stock, Pepi has a distinct disdain for paper. Decorum forbids me to tell you in public what he does on it.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 08:05)
System Optimization??
DA and All
Would appreciate your opinion on optimizing a mechanical trading system to a particular trading instrument ( e.g. specific funds or stocks or futures ) . Ive read that some are strongly against it, while others advocate it. I have a mechanical trading system based on a combination of indicators whose days vary. Ive tested it against the various instruments that I trade, and have selected the days that give me the most profits per trade for that instrument, while keeping my loosing trades under control. Ive observed slight difference in the days depending on the instrument. Would appreciate opinions from those with experience with mechanical trading systems.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 08:19)
@DFW Airport
Predicting gold prices makes about as much sense as predicting earthquakes on Aug 17 ( re; True Sidekick at 03:44 )
We seem to have some Loony's roaming about.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 08:24)
Tort: Thanks for the quick response to my ignorant question!...Still kinda in the dark ....but what else is new???....Good luck on the bread machine.....

(Tue Jul 29 1997 08:32)
China a 21st century world power?
Will China be THE world power of the 21st century?
Well, they have at least 2 things straight:
1. Their economy is not based on service feeding on service, as in the U.S. and the degenerated socialsitic societies of Europe. THEY realize that manufacturing is the foundation of any economy, and that service can only exist as a satellite to production.
2. They are the originators of paper money ( more than 5,000 years ago ) and no VERY well that paper is a scam, and that ONLY gold is money. After the meltdown, they will be the ones who are still standing, and their production base will already be primed.

Panda: Sorry about the "identity crisis", 'just in a hurry off to work, and did not proof. is a good theory about what would happen to the stock market's "circuit breakers" in a crash.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 08:34)
URIS: The full moon is August 18th. Earthquake activity increases as the gravitational pull of the moon puts more pressure on the crust of the earth. Extremes of tides are also at at the time of the full moon. That does not mean I think the mothers of Japan are on to something.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 08:36)
Cmax -- No apology necessary! I thought it was kind of funny actually!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 08:42)
@DFW Airport


(Tue Jul 29 1997 08:48)
TED -- I'm really enjoying your COOOL Canadian air this morning! Now, if I could get my ISP to recognize the EBN URL! It used to work fine up until about a week ago. Now it's an iffy proposition. Employment cost data in line with expectations, but the bonds did a small about face when the data was released. I wonder, are some bond players seeing a less friendly future ahead for the markets????

(Tue Jul 29 1997 08:50)
URIS: What do you say about many thinking that Wall Street has invented
the biggest money making machine ever built?

(Tue Jul 29 1997 08:53)
PANDA: re: EBN. I am having a failure on about 75% of my attempts since last Wednesday or so.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 08:57)
Panda: Sent it down....just for you dude!...Looks like Glenn was right about sellers at yesterday's closing price as Comex Gold is down 1.70; Silver down 1.3 cents and Platinum down 5.30....S+P futures down 1.50..

(Tue Jul 29 1997 09:01)
If the XAU does as well as the Joburg Index is doing the XAU would close at 96.82 today.

ron jett
(Tue Jul 29 1997 09:01)
To all - this special update this morning re: gold

(Tue Jul 29 1997 09:07)
Mooney - In some respects I agree. What Klinton and Cohen ( and before him Dr. Perry ) are doing with the military is misguided - they are spending too much money on GI salary, "family-type" benefits, housing, retirement, entitlements, $10,000 bonuses for pilots, and the like. ( "A kinder, gentler warrior"..!?!? ) They have also gone overboard with some of their high $ tech program, primarily in aircraft systems ( $ 1 billion per SINGLE B-2 aircraft !?!? Ditto the F-22 ) . These technologies dont target the type of battles that will be fought in the future. The military should get back to the basics.

Goldbug23 - Youre not totally wrong. China has a plan ( long term ) and they are in the process of executing it with their partners. But the plan isnt global ( yet ) . Their military is not currently capable of global aspirations.

Jack - Agree. But dont discount Chinas ability to potentially dominate that particular part of the world.

BTW, the "Star Wars"/missile defense shield was a big bluff to get the former Soviet Union to fund a counter program ( i.e., "break their bank" ) and to flush out a few spies trying to sell/steal U.S. secrets. It was also a big science project with a secondary objectives of pumping fresh money into the military and a sputtering U.S. economy . ( The funny part was that some of the science projects had promise. But the amount of money to implement such a system would have cost a lot more than a few B-2s. )

(Tue Jul 29 1997 09:12)
"Don't go around saying the world owes you a living. The world
owes you nothing. It was here first." ----- Mark Twain

(Tue Jul 29 1997 09:14)
Stox are down ( S+P futes down 4.10 ) Long bond is down 9 ticks....Comex Gold is down 1.90;Silver down 1.3 cents and Paltinum down 6.80...But the weather is GREAT and I'm UP for some seakayaking....BBL dudes!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 09:22)
Gold Mining Outlook

Interesting site I found

(Tue Jul 29 1997 09:23)
In the Believe it or Not department - A man I grew up calling 'Uncle' ( he was my father's good friend from work ) retired with his wife to a lovely home in England which was built in the shadow of an ancient castle's wall. One day digging in his garden he unearthed an ancient gold coin. What did he do? He kept quiet about it and ceased working in the garden as he didn't want to upset the serenity of his home and neighbourhood with a mini gold rush to the area. Have a nice day All. And Mike - Give Pepi a pat from me.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 09:40)
Donald -- I E-mailed my ISP and they replied that, "It was little slow in loading, but seemed to work O.K." Funny, doesn't work O.K. for me! ABN, from the same folks at Dow Jones, seems to work fine though...

(Tue Jul 29 1997 09:43)
Currency markets stirring again, but it's a beautiful day today! Going to enjoy it, BBL!

FWIW, sometimes it's best to close ones' eyes for a short time with regards to the markets. :- )

(Tue Jul 29 1997 10:04)
Do I hear $300?
Another failure for gold today, I like those 329 shorts I put in yesterday. Finally kicked that Russian swine flu that had me sidelined last week, time to do some serious trading. I feel great!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 10:05)
ron - Before I head off I would like to say that I believe that the move by Newmont will be the first of many similar buy backs by the mining companies and that this will add much fuel to the fire in the coming rally.
RJ - No arguement with your money making philosophy ( except remember that that 10% has to be AFTER taxes ) , but you still didn't answer the question as to what time period is, to you, the forseeable future. Also I hope you did read that article. Also I sincerely believe that there are a lot of RJ's out there. :- ) Also I sincerely believe that gold will not hit $275 again in history. Also I believe that I've been wrong before. Also I believe that a while back you questioned my previous predictions and that one of these days I'll have to review them with you but in the meantime I'll let you know ( at the risk of sounding fliperous ) that I believe that they have been better than you believe them to be. Also I believe that I have to go now. :- )

George Cole
(Tue Jul 29 1997 10:12)
screw the call owners
Looks like the call owners will get screwed as usual. Interesting to see how fast Au recovers after option expiration.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 10:17)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Indonesia propping up the rupiah:
Thai central bank boss hounded out:

George Cole
(Tue Jul 29 1997 10:18)
gold stocks
Gold stocks holding up pretty well so far considering steep drop in bullion.

Mooney: About time the big boys stepped up to the plate.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 10:22)
Mooney - You are a wordsmith. Im starting a Mooney Dictionary. It will probably sell for $49.95 and be published by Random House. I apologize for my previous tone which bordered on Floccinaucinihilipilification.

By the way, I loved your "Ode to Hepcat" which, for those that missed it, I will take the liberty of reposting it here.

"Ode to Hepcat"
The Wind-Sucker when he winx at Kitco seems to have a predilection for garboil.
The subsequent dretching of our site is deserving of the cucking-stool.
The doctor, ( if such he really be ) , seems to have a venatical fixation
that also requires he venenate all around.
His own fliperous pumpkinification is barely worth a snirtle or a keak.
In fact, he is hardly even worthy of the term 'fonkin' or 'fopdoodle'. Heanling, hufty-tufty, killcow, or mobard are terms which so readily come to mind.
Zoinks' attempts to brangle and his floccinaucinihilipilification habit evoks the desire to cry 'Gardyloo' and mean it! The effort would, in the end, be wasted.
For, as we all by now realise, the Dragoo is nothing more than a whifling.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 10:22)
Good Morning to all posters and lurkers and thank you yet again Bart for providing such a thought provoking forum.

A mate of mine emailed me the other day and I thought I might throw the chat between two Aussies into the ring FWIW.

Q. John,
What do you think is going to happen to the gold price. Normandy has taken
a pounding but is recovering slowly. As I understand most of its production
for the next 2 to 4 years has been sold forward, I thought it would be
shielded from the reserve banks decision. Have you still got a position in

A. The sentiment on Gold is extremely bearish which is always a condition that must be present at market turns. So we could have seen the bottom on 4th July. But No sure sign yet. Gold seems to have made a nice $14 bounce up, and Australian Gold stocks have definately rebounded very strongly. Normandy low $1.22, closed today at $1.60, up 12c in 2 days. Also the volume traded has been very high about a week ago on the rapid reversal up from $1.22.
On 2 days last week I think it was, it was the highest volume stock traded on the ASX. Market reversals ( in this case a recovery ) typically exhibit this sort of price/time/volume characteristics. HOWEVER....... All of these do not assure us that this is what is happening. Frequently it is only a temporary recovery whilst the oversold condition is dissapated ( sp? ) and the market having caught up with itself, then plunges to new lows.
Normandy has quite a lot of forward sales that lock in mining profits for about 3 years I think, but total hedging only covers around 20% of the company's total reserves.

And I currently hold a long position in Normandy via warrants so my views should be taken with that in mind. WE MUST ALL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR OWN SHARETRADING DECISIONS !

Something that should be said... the whole Gold Mining industry is incredulous at the RBA and particularly Costello for a disgraceful and imprudent decision firstly, and secondly Costello's ill considered and off the cuff remark that Gold no longer had a place in the international financial system. ( I'm paraphrasing ) .

Could you imagine Fischer ( Trade Minister ) coming out and telling the world to stop buying wool because synthetics will replace it..... What sort of an outcry would that produce?

One view I have read is that Costello and the RBA are mere puppets of Rubin and Greenspan and our reserves have been used as cannon fodder to help keep the price of gold tumbling. The US cannot afford any "currency" to look an attractive alternative to US$ Treasury Bonds or Shares, because they know there is a North Atlantic bubble that they have lost control of and if just a fraction of the hot money is withdrawn then the bubble will be pricked.
Historical Note 1. The Us has sold ZERO tons of IT'S gold reserves.
Historical Note 2. From August? 1929 to 1933, the Dow Jones declined something like 89%.

Just tonight on Channel 7 there was a segment on Gold from the Diggers and Dealer's conference being held in Kalgoorlie today. One Mining Co. CEO talked about the Diggers in WW1 & 2 at least knowing the enemy because they wore a different colour hat. IE... Costello and the RBA were the enemy within. A couple of short interviews with miners talking about losing work.
Same CEO deferring $20m expansion, 150 jobs including engineers now not going to happen. Showed an 85 tonne truck laden with ore driving out of the open pit and he said they would be lucky to get a teaspoon of Gold out of it, that's how tight things are.

So Mate no one knows where Gold ( or Silver, Platinum or Palladium for that matter ) are going, but I do know that politicians have a horrible record when it comes to forecasting markets. I suspect that Costello and the RBA may have sold out the small diversification in our FX reserves at the market lows.

For non-Aussies or Kiwi's , "Diggers" as well as meaning miners is slang for foot-soldiers ( G.I.'s ) .

I welcome comments from the esteemed seers present.

JohnC. Brisbane.

John Disney
(Tue Jul 29 1997 10:24)
The six Randgold mines had an awful quarter.
The 3 making up the new Durban deep were really bad
with DD losing 3.09 rands/share versus a loss of 1.15
prior quarter, Blyvoor losing 63 cents versus a loss of
5 cents last quarter, amd Buffles losing 1.19 versus
a profit of 1.08 prior quarter. The major reason for the
collapse were underground fires at buffles and blyvoor
and a seismic at buffles which dropped grade from 6.81
g/tn to 5.44. Gold production at buffels fell 22 per cent.
and 10 per cent at blyvoor and DD. DD was hampered by
heavy rains which flooded underground reserves.
ERPM did better than expected with a loss of 6 cents
versus 11 cent before. Harmony made 49 cents versus a loss
of 76 cents prior quarter. Groootvlei had a total
disaster losing 3.47 a share versus 55 cent the prior

(Tue Jul 29 1997 10:48)
Sun Spot activity looks kind of active

I have just come back from Brisbane after two days talking to scientists at CSIRO. One of them showed me at graph that they had on El Nino over the last ten years. It showed the latest reading at the worst level for
the period with the latest drop the most parabolic. Sort of looked like the way that gold fell out of bed recently.
When commenting on the El Nino, this scientist said to me that the prediction he has been quoted for, in the coming El Nino season, is that it will be the worst El Nino to be experienced over the last 90 years.
Sounds kind of like flux and chaos to me.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 10:59)
RJ,Your in good sprits this mourning

(Tue Jul 29 1997 11:06)
in sack-o-tomatoes
The real question, according to my buddy in San Francisco, is whether the Clinton-Blair team will handle the next crash as adroitly as Reagan-Thatcher handled the last one? Does Clinton-Blair even have a clue? He made one other observation: Greenie's getting real old, and the thing that may very well roil this market more than any other of the speculative scenarios being tossed around is Greenspan falling ill. Comments?

(Tue Jul 29 1997 11:24)
@breakout or fakeout?
George Cole: Your prediction for the track of gold price this morning looks spot-on...the dead low water mark, so far at least, was at 0930 hrs.

Beemers: Bema performing pretty well ( better than the gold price might dictate ) this a.m. Anybody with scuttlebutt about this potential takeover candidate??

(Tue Jul 29 1997 11:26)
Anything but gold
Soros invests $980 mln in Russian Svyazinvest -FT

LONDON, July 29 ( Reuter ) - George Soros funds took about
half of the 25 percent of Russian telecommunications company
Svyazinvest privatised last week, investing almost $980 million,
the Financial Times said on Tuesday.
The newspaper quoted financier Soros as saying he had
changed his investment view on Russia, which had now become "the
most interesting emerging market in the world".
Soros, who also denied he had been involved in the recent
turmoil in south-east Asian currencies, said his investment view
on Russia had changed after the appointment of reformist First
Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov to the government.
"I took that as an indication that there would be a serious
attempt made to progress from robber capitalism to legitimate
capitalism where shareholder rights are protected," the paper
quoted Soros as saying from his home in Southampton, New York.
"I think events so far have reinforced my hypothesis," he
Soros said his funds' total exposure to Russia totalled $2.5
billion following the Svyazinvest deal.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 11:50)
@DFW Airport
Leland: The many that you refer to in your post have a good reason to
think as they do. The current Wall St has generated a lot of money for
them.When the bubble bursts they will find that the money machine has
transformed itself into nothing more than a "paper" shreader.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 11:55)
Japans divesture of $US assets will lead to collapse in US bond market, devaluation of US dollar & increase in gold price. Insightful and prophetic. Must RELOAD Guru Milhouse page:

(Tue Jul 29 1997 11:56)
@for you

LONDON, July 29 ( Reuter ) - Gold was firmer in London on

Tuesday but at the same time was being undermined by dealer

nervousness over whether or not the market could hold on at the

top end of its recent range.

"It seems to be trying to recover and is trying

$329.00-$330.00 for the fourth time. This is clearly its

breakout point," said Karen Jones, technical analyst at Credit

Suisse First Boston.

"Nobody wants to get caught long at the top of the range but

it only has to get to $331-$332 to get into a different level.

It's a tricky situation," a dealer said.

Gold fixed at $327.50 per ounce compared with $325.75 on

Monday when it closed at $327.25/$327.75.

Gold and silver both closed firmer in New York despite a

surging dollar which had reached a 7-1/2 year high against the

mark earlier on Monday.

Dealers said short covering by funds and professionals led

to bullion closing around $328.50/$329.25 in New York.

However long liquidation in the Far East stopped any rally

reducing trade to tight ranges just below the U.S. close.

Dealers noted also small parcels of Australian producer

selling added to the weight on the market joined by profit

taking in early European trading.

The strength and subsequent easing in the platinum and

palladium market was also a factor in the gold price moves,

dealers said.

But a move by U.S. producer Newmont Mining to buy back 1.1

million ounces of hedged gold to "reassert our confidence in the

metal", according to a statement from company chairman Ronald


He also noted the unwinding would lock in a price

differential of about $90 over the price of gold.

"It added some spice to the market," a dealer said.

Silver was a cent off at $4.37/$4.39.

"Silver has more potential than gold at the moment although

a gold price at $331-$332 would help it," a dealer said.

He said a gap on the September chart suggested if silver got

through $4.41-$4.42, the next 10 cents would be gained quickly.

Monday's surge in platinum and palladium only got as far as

Tokyo after which profittaking weakened prices in Europe.

Platinum was indicated at $425.00/$428.00 down $4.50 and

palladium was off $6.00 at $198.00/$201.00.

The over the counter options expire at 1330 GMT with the

$325.00 strike the most significant one for gold.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 12:28)
URIS: Very appropriate! Maybe we both should be looking at some paper
shredder stocks. Thanks.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jul 29 1997 12:43)
I believe for every drop of rain that falls, a flower grows... Pepi says hi!

Mike Sheller
(Tue Jul 29 1997 12:45)
@The Moonster
MOONEY: So what are you telling me? I should move next door to an English castle?

(Tue Jul 29 1997 13:05)
@ Flux & Chaos
Nick: Regarding your 10:48 of today, the El Nino report is very interesting. "Worst in 90 years." Well there goes Marin County, California again. In 1982 it really got creamed by El Nino.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 13:05)
More Presidential Sleeze
I'm more and more convinced our boy-president is going to take a fall. How will it affect the mkts? At first blush ( :- ) , one might believe that it could only help the Dow ( after all, what has Clinton ever done to increase mkt confidence? ) , but a prolonged period of govt'l turmoil during which nothing gets done may have the opposite effect.



Kathleen Willey is looking for a lawyer. According to multiple sources in and out of
government who have knowledge of the story, this former low-level White House staffer
personally approached President Clinton a few years ago looking for more work and additional
responsibilities, feeling underutilized in the Office of the Social Secretary.

The DRUDGE REPORT first noted on July 4 that NEWSWEEK ace investigative reporter Michael
Isikoff was hot on the trail of a woman who claims to have been sexually propositioned by the
President on federal property. "...Then he fondled me," she is known to have told Isikoff, the DRUDGE REPORT has
learned from several sources.

Every attempt was made to reach Willey. Her phone number has recently been disconnected.

Shortly after the incident occurred, the woman, now believed to be Kathleen Willey, left her White House job.
Isikoff has held back on the explosive story because the woman has refused to go on the record with her account.
Nevertheless, the events surrounding Willey have become the talk of the Washington underground and threaten to
undermine President Clinton's defense in the ongoing Paula Jones sexual harassment case.

It is not known if the woman has been in contact with the Jones camp, although one source at the WASHINGTON
TIMES -- who has recently become familiar with the story -- suspects that she hasn't.

Others familiar with the situation suggest that Willey has clammed up and is not talking to anyone about what
occurred, including Isikoff.

"If she is saying those things... she's lying, Drudge, don't report it," a White House official warned late on

The Willey story has spread throughout the Executive Mansion that has gone on alert for any and all Willey
moves, or press.

One White House staffer strongly denies that a Kathleen Willey has ever been employed at the White House during
the Clinton Administration.

Washington waits...

(Tue Jul 29 1997 13:19)
@ Heard On The Web:
Apparently there is a news article in todays Wall Street Journal ( page C18 ) regarding potential takeover targets in the gold mining business. Since Bema Gold ( BGO ) was one of the stocks listed that probably accounted for its early bounce this morning.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 13:25)
good call
NAILZ: Looks like you're right...we have a 329 range roof to contend with.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 13:37)
AN ENIGMA WRAPPED IN AN ANOMALY is the theme of a meticulous dissection of Central Bank Gold Operations & Its Ramifications. New analyst goes by the handle of Red Baron:

(Tue Jul 29 1997 13:48)
RON: Nothing sticks to teflon.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 13:57)
Byron: Thanks for news likely explaining the early strength in Bema this morning. Have seen ya over at SI on the Bema line recently...the inmates have been a tad mutinous over the past couple of months and with reason, although Bema still has performed better than most golds.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 14:23)
JOHN DISNEY: A few months back, Harmony proposed to acquire Grootvlei. Did this action actually take place, and if so, at approximately what time.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 14:24)
Ron- How about Clinton falling, along with the FBI and NTSB? I'm refering to the Air National Guard pilot's account of the TWA crash, on the AP wires today. They didn't ask him any questions! Then they go to Congress and state ( I saw this ) that there was nothing to any of the eyewitness accounts ( and they weren't pressed at all ) . I don't want to turn this site into a conspiracy site, but I think this speaks to a potential crisis of confidence, which has obvious relevance to this site. Am I out of touch on this? Should I just buy index funds and shut up?

(Tue Jul 29 1997 14:25)
@ The Wild Juniors:
Novice: Yes, I quess someone had to fill the void left by Bre-X. Haven't visited the "dirts" lately, but the last time I checked there seemed to be a food fight every few minutes. : )

(Tue Jul 29 1997 14:37)
Hi Novice!....Just in the door and I aready don't know what I'm doin inside....staring at the screen when the North Atlantic ocean is "out there" on a spectacular day...yes,another one!...Typical Maritime's shares holdin up pretty good considering CNN shows gold down 3.60....XAU down 1.07....with mute button firmly depressed ( on CNBC ) ...and head phones strapped on....Was yesterday a temporary top @329.5 and are we goin down to test recent low from here??? Full of questions and NO answers.....See ya Maritimer!

Bob M
(Tue Jul 29 1997 14:51)
In a way, one can look at this current stock market bull, as being one of the largest transfers of wealth in this nations history. In essence they have the entire working class purchasing stock from the wealthiest companies and individuals on the promise that the market will continue to rise until they go to retrieve their money along with profit. But it seems as if the money is gravitating to where it always goes, to the ones at the top. When the shakeout comes, the working class will get stuck as usual, holding the worthless paper..This could be the biggest scam ever perpertrated on the working class..

Bob M
(Tue Jul 29 1997 14:54)
Steve-Perth- What the heck is going on down under..I cannot believe that the people are turning in their guns down there..they are going to be very sorry someday.....from an American who believes that the Second Amendment is the last roadblock to tyranny..

(Tue Jul 29 1997 15:07)
@ Scamming:
Bob M: Bre-x was a pretty big scam. Quess who was left holding the bag on that one. NOT the big boys.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 15:14)
@ Crowning Time:
Yesterday, August Gold up about $3.00 today down about $3.40. The battle between the shorts and the longs continues. ... When this battle is over who will wear the crown?

(Tue Jul 29 1997 15:22)
Korean Forex losses.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 15:24)
SAVAGE.....I hope I am right about the range...If so, $16.00 wide will allow plenty of room to make a few bucks....I think we will gently head down and check the bottom of the range ( $314.00 roughly ) and if it holds, you will see the safest buying opportunity in years...You will then have the opportunity to re-check the top of the range at $329.50......IMHO and for what it is worth....HAPPY TRADING.....

(Tue Jul 29 1997 15:25)
Proposed "Super IRA Bill" might increase US gold coin demand by $10 billion this year! The purpose of the Bill is to stimulate savings. Passage will undoubtedly boast bullion prices:

(Tue Jul 29 1997 15:26)
George Soros and Korean currency.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 15:31)
Korea says export woes due to overly strong Korean Won.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 15:31)
O.K. Anybody want to buy Omega Research stock?? You know, the folks who brought you Trade Station and Super Charts... Here's the I.P.O.

Could this be another sign??? ( of a market top? )

But then again, if the market goes down, who will want charting software? Of course, there's always the soon to be broke goldbugs who would be charting .... :- ) )

(Tue Jul 29 1997 15:31)
@ Hanging Around The 50:
XAU and HUI Indexes still showing strenght considering... Still hanging around that 50 days moving average. Sign of strenght which I like to see. Stay tuned.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 15:33)
TED....Send some of that cool weather that you call hot over here...Yesterday was 98 with a heat index of 115....Yes, that is 93% humidity....

(Tue Jul 29 1997 15:39)
Korean default rate rises to 50 per day

(Tue Jul 29 1997 15:43)
in sack-o-tomatoes
All: Broker just called to tell me that I got a partial fill on some twenty-dollar Dec 380 calls today. May try to pick up some more tomorrow. I know it's a LONG shot, but I'm in for the LONG haul, and know a bargain when it hits me in the face hard enough. No one may know what tomorrow will bring.

Savage: That's my worry, too. But this guy's frying his eggs on high.

WSF: I certainly don't think you're out of touch. I tend to approach the mkt from a fundamentalist's news-moves-the-mkt perspective. I'd stay away from those funds, though ( but whatever you do, don't listen to me because everything I've done so far has been wrong, wrong, wrong ) .

(Tue Jul 29 1997 15:44)
NAILZ: Some stats for you from Eastern CT shore. Temp 78, wind SE @ 10MPH
Humidity 52% Perfect sunny day.

Bob A
(Tue Jul 29 1997 15:47)
Wall st J. article kicked RYO down by 12% so far today.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 15:56)
ALL.... Hope you just heard Ron Insanna's comments on the "new era economics". He went through all the reasons we have heard for the "new era". Then he said it appears all the good news had been already rumored into the stx...Now it is time to sell on the news....He said we may be through with the running of the bull....

(Tue Jul 29 1997 15:58)
@Heppies prediction
Hepcat was wrong; he missed his 3-2-5 prediction for today's close by .80!!:- )

(Tue Jul 29 1997 16:10)
More deflation
Just heard that Bollinger guy on CNBC. He started off saying that deflation is a real possibility -- the first time the US has experienced this in 40 years. And the market has not factored that risk in.

Then the phone rang and I missed the rest of his schpiel. Did anyone else catch this at about 4pm Eastern time?

(Tue Jul 29 1997 16:17)
Elaine Garzarelli today predicted that long term interest rates would drop to 6% this
year leading to a Dow of 8800 and an S&P of 990. If the interest rates drop lower, than the
Dow and S&P would be even higher.

Given recent track record - could be market tank time.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 16:21)
Hi Ted: A little uneasy about gold's direction from here, but we're still battin .500 for the week ( meanwhile, gold-dissin' Abby's SUNW and IBM are .000 for Mon. & Tues ) . Off topic: I thought you were in for some spectacular Mira Bay weather after hearing about your lightning strike this a.m. Happy kayaking!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 16:31)
Senor Vronsky - Very nice 1525 post with ( good! thank you... ) URL to article about IRA legislation lifting demand for PM coinage.

As we all know, there have been long seasons when coins were an outstanding investment.

Gold stocks _not_ getting tanked by bullion slip today - An omen? Does this augur well? A portent of good things? Methinks it does, me laddies.

Richard Burke
(Tue Jul 29 1997 16:34)
Byron, Nick and Others Interested: Thanks for the el nino report Nick. It adds some confirmation to the report on Investors Hotline ( April 4/97 ) which contained an interview with Evelyn Browning Garriss who publishes the Browning Newsletter. Ms. Garriss is an expert in "climatologic factors in investing". She maintains that in the past few years we have been seeing a major world climate change which will continue for about 20 years. She says these things come in cycles. What is happening is nothing new. A tropical current in the Atlantic is expected to remain unusually warm for 20 years and is generating more hurricanes. A cool Atlantic current in the NE and Canada has nearly destroyed the Canadian fishing, and is extending cold storms further down along the Eastern Seaboard.The El Ninos will continue to bring flooding and drought to the Pacific Coast and Texas. In BC it has brought the mackeral north to eat our salmon fry. Since 1989, we have been returning to more normal, ie higher activity, volcanic action which will create more extreme climatic conditions.

All of this has investment implications. As some of the most fundamental elements of the economy - property values, insurance, food production, transportation and communication - are affected by changing climate, all aspects of the economy will change. What does this mean for gold? I would have to think it is positive. Any comments?

(Tue Jul 29 1997 16:37)
Hi Novice!...Considering Comex Gold was down 3.70 the XAU did alright ( down .36 ) ...Comex Silver dowm three cents and Platinum down 4.20
....Big day for bank stox as BKX up 14.78 ( 2.18% ) ....Dow @ new record ( up 53.42 ) but what else is new???...Saw the tall ships sail by today on their way to the fortress at Louisbourg....

(Tue Jul 29 1997 16:39)
Dow/Gold Ratio 25.09 at the close. There have been 4 or 5 new highs in the Dow since July 11th, But the D/G Ratio did not confirm any of them. The Ratio remains in favor of gold over the Dow.

George Cole
(Tue Jul 29 1997 16:42)
in Florida
RJ: Score one for your side today!

The really interesting thing about today's action was the ability of the gold stocks to hold up exceedingly well in the face of a $3.70 plunge in the bullion price. As most of you know I much prefer the stocks to be acting better than bullion than visa versa. This augurs well for a quick rebound back to the $330 area.

George Cole
(Tue Jul 29 1997 16:48)
in Florida
Richard Burke: Anything that disrupts the extent investment and economic paradigms will be good for gold

(Tue Jul 29 1997 16:53)
Nailz ( 15:33 ) 77 degrees with a nice ocean breeze here....Are WE headed back down??...

(Tue Jul 29 1997 16:57)
Go Figure ! @ Canada
Inflation/Deflation, anyone's guess, I still suggest it is here and gain-
ing in strength, as per the two news story items presented, one has as
its support regarding inflation, *words*. The other looks like *action*
that suggests Deflation, from the street level.

Inflation a no-show as U.S. wage gains remain modest.

Ontario Federation of Labour - 2,500 rawdy delegates cleared the decks
yesterday for a Provincewide General Strike, and then marched on
Queen's Park in a show of solidarity.

Canadian Labour don't get it !

Be Quiet -- Consume --and Die
That's the "New Economy" ( Modern Artificial Control )

(Tue Jul 29 1997 17:01)
BOB M: Your 14:5l says it well. P. T. Barnum couldn't have done better.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 17:03)
@SI cockfights
Byron: Yes, the blood-letting on some of the SI threads make recent Kitco squabbles look like a Sunday School picnic. Bema's SI thread has had disagreements ( of course ) but they've generally been quite civil. Ted: send Peter Monk after Cerro Casale, OK?

(Tue Jul 29 1997 17:04)
One minute graph of XAU today, illustrating strong close:$XAU.X&time_period=1-minute%20Bars&bars=600?wstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key=

(Tue Jul 29 1997 17:06)
Re: WSF, TWA-800
WSF: I believe you are on to something big here. In my opinion the stock market mania is but one manifestation of the larger mass hypnosis enveloping most of the "educated world". TWA flight 800 provides a confirmation of this thesis. 154 or so people reported seeing a missle like trace connect with flight 800 immediately before the explosion. Many of these people were military and civilian airman. FBI agents steal private property ( evidence ) in the dead of the night. The FBI crime lab has been busy converting damning evidence into something else.

Truth is just what they say it is. It matters not what we see, photograph or hear. The big lie on flight 800 is that a coverup this big could never fly. Too many people would talk.

After world war II similar rumblings would arise about Pearl Harbor. FDR was said to have aided the debacle. Preposterous, said the press, how could you keep such a thing quiet. Well now after all these years we know FDR did aid the destruction and death at Pearl Harbor. To learn the mechanics of world-wide coverups in general and the Pearl Harbor coverup in perticular, read John Tolands ( the preeminent world war II historian ) excellent book "Infamy" You will see an example of how threatened power bends, discredits, crushes or eliminates everyone in its path. That this book could be published in this country gives me hope for us. Lets see if the books on TWA flight 800 can be published.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 17:07)
No, I did not type in that URL!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 17:13)
@The Public Library
Richard Burke: Someone ( I forget who ) post a URL address where you can get a map which displays the effects of El Nino. Apparently it is updated periodically with changes in movements of El Nino. Several weeks ago I heard that the maximum point North in the Pacific for El Nino was to be in Sept-Oct, l997 before it starts slowly receeding back South. Well, looks like "interesting times" this fall and winter on the Left Coast. Any further updates are appreciated. I notice that the CRB Index is doing well. Back over 240. Omens of things to come in the grain markets. The CRB is still heavily weighted towards the grains even with recent changes.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 17:16)
Should punch through 330 tomorrow or the next day.
By the time 340 is reached, there will be wholesale panic buying.
380 by the end of August!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 17:26)
er...why ? Are you clairvoyant ? Have you been reading tea-leaves ? Does Goldman=Greenspan ? Have you had an e-mail from Hepcat ? What is the basis for your prescience ?

(Tue Jul 29 1997 17:32)
@ The Discovery Channel:
Novice: I just noticed on the SI Gold Forum main page where all the "threads" are listed, that you can now pull up ALL comments during THE LAST HOUR from all the various gold thread sites. Is this new?? .. Gosh, now I can keep track of all the food fights on an hour-by-hour basis. 8= )

(Tue Jul 29 1997 17:36)
I've been communing with the short-sellers.
It's actually relatively easy to establish psychic contact--just close
your eyes and imagine that you are one of them. Try it!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 17:38)
I've tried to commune with everybody, even Hepcat. All I know is, this market is as confused as a newborn babe in a topless bar !!!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 17:40)
BYRON, RICHARD BURKE: Here is the El Nino site.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 17:56)
GOLDMAN: Is your gold forecast tied to a particular direction on the Dow or does it stand on its own?

(Tue Jul 29 1997 18:03)
Stands on its own. I suspect that the wild hyperventilating bullish
hordes will push the Dow higher for awhile even when faced with a
disturbing datum such as a rocketing gold price.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 18:05)
Latest Currency Scores: Soros 0, Malaysia 1

(Tue Jul 29 1997 18:10)
@Uh Oh, spin masters at work!
White House 'hopes' that there's no stock crash... But we're ready!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 18:11)
@Gold and Dow
Goldman: if I remember charts right, gold has always started its upward
movement before the stocks market peaked and crashed

George Cole
(Tue Jul 29 1997 18:21)

After today's very good gold stock action I wouldnt be surprised if bullion does indeed hit $340 in a matter of days. Still wouldn't bet the family farm though. Being of a conservative bent, I am building up gold mutual fund positions, but do not have the intestinal fortitude for options and futures.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 18:22)
Philippine Central Bank reduces overnight Interest Rate from 25% to 22%

(Tue Jul 29 1997 18:27)
Michaelangelo is to marble what Ben is to golf...for eternity...
Golf is gonna miss you buddy...

Now your playin the Best courses...

away ( :- (

(Tue Jul 29 1997 18:35)
@ The Post
Donald: Thanks for the El Nino site info. By the way, did you get to see or have a chance to read my two Albert Jay Nock essays I posted late last night about 23:30 or so.?

(Tue Jul 29 1997 18:46)
All : August 4, 1997 issue of the Time magazine is a must read for all. It carries a three page article on contingency plans in place at the federal, stock exchange, brokerage firms and mutual fund levels. Crashmeisters named are Rubin, Greenspan, Komansky of Merrill, Grasso of NYSE, Brennan of Vanguard and Pozen of FMR CO. I wish I had the knohow to reprint the article on this site, but please do get a copy and read it.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 18:56)
C'mon guy!!!...Sheeeeesh!... HELLO!...
Ron in the sack - NOV 14 is not that far away...Why don't you buy some puts as long as your gambling and handing you hard earned cash to the brokerage house. Don't let them HAVE your money. Don't become a stat.

YNOT - Hepcat ( and I, yuk yuk ) said Gold@$350+/-$5.00. .80 is hardly missing the call. There was a SMALL $11.80 swing in between. My hats are off to the HEP-RAT-CAT. Hoorah!

2-as-in-weeks - Portent of things to come? Omen? Augur well? I'm suprised at you. Gold FELL today. $3.80. How can you you feel good?

GSC - Augurs well? et tu? $340.00 in a matter of days?

Goldaman - $330? $380.00 by August end?

Batman: Robin.
Robin: What is it Batman?
Batman: We have our work cut out for us here.
Robin: How about we just cut on out of here before we get sucked in to the dreaded "Gold-gonna-rise-anytime" coma.
Batman: Your right, and take that EB fellow with you. He is sure to get his butt kicked if he stays here tonight.
Robin: OK. I love doing good deeds.
Batman: AWAY!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 18:59)
There is so much resistence at 340 spot that to cross over it would be incredible. We touched the 340.00 level many many times before going down and there are alot of traders under water from that level who would love to break-even. Even going to 340.00 and touching it would be impressive. I sold my Dec calls. I made a very small profit but I was happy with it as the market sold off today. I can see us going higher tomorrow but to go higher two days in a row would be tough. The funds look like they are setting the market up for another decline. This perception has nothing to do with being on the floor and everything to do with looking at my numbers. We were very oversold by dropping $20 in two days a couple weeks ago, but the market still has to deal with the fundamentals, being the stock market and bond market are still making new highes as I write this. Inflation or the perception of it atleast is low and declining. When the stock, bond and gold markets turn it going ot be a big one. I am starting to believe that Gold will not have any meanfull rallies until the final bottom so if you believe we are going to 370 then you can also believe in 525. I do not believe in either. It looks like the stock market had bigger rallies during the great depression then gold is about to have during this decline. Yes there were rallies in stocks during the depression as people even back then proclaimed "That was the bottom!". The low we had around $313 was NOT the final low. When are we going to break it I could not say but at some point this year it will happen.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 18:59)
Kuston @Phoenix
You still around? How's the golf game? It's gotta be WAY too hot to be playin' nowadays...been in the low to mid 80's here...oh my! the range


(Tue Jul 29 1997 19:02)
Time Article
NJ and All: The Net version of the Time article NJ mentioned is here:>

(Tue Jul 29 1997 19:07)
Oops - sorry -that doesn't seem to work, does it ? Just log on to and select Time.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 19:07)
C-MAX: Yes, someday we will wish we still had our defense manufacturing capacity. We are too busy spending our money subsidizing having one kid after another,many of them crack babies at several hundred thousand each,, to subsidize what we should be. We are still doing all right in the manufacturing area like Callaway Golf clubs, etc. But how do you fight a war with golf clubs? How is our missile offense and defense capability? Maybe we do not need it now but when the Chinese catch up to us where will we be?
And then we have Iran, et al ( terrorists ) to worry about. It's a jungle out there. Didn't the Boy Scouts say something about BE PREPARED?

(Tue Jul 29 1997 19:13)
Byron: After mowing my weeds ( er, lawn ) this evening here in Ontario ( Canada ) , I'll have to check it out the new SI feature you mentioned!

Ted: August 1 1997 Investor's Digest just received. It quotes the Yamamoto Forecast as follows: ABX is "a money-making machine...selling at a discount...perhaps the final opportunity for investors to jump excellent opportunity". Hope its not too bullish...caveat emptor, and all that.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 19:27)
Curious : Thanks. Let's see if this works.>

(Tue Jul 29 1997 19:30)
All : Second and last try.>

(Tue Jul 29 1997 19:32)
To All: FYI, Crashmeister article can be viewed at:>

Unfortunately, clicking on the URL won't work. Try highlighting the underlined URL only. Then cut and paste the URL into an "open" window.

For some reason unknown to me, the URL is displayed twice, contiguously, by the "Add A Comment" facility. Anyone know why?

Thank you, NJ for finding and mentioning the article.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 19:36)
in sack-o-tomatoes
EB: By 'long haul' I mean the year 2000 or so -- or at least until the Dow isn't so over valued. BTW, I am trying to buy some puts, too. But where to buy? I've been waitin for a rally to 335 or so. Are you buying here?

(Tue Jul 29 1997 19:38)
BYRON: Yes. I read the essay, and the other post as well. He really speaks from the grave, as though that was his intent when he wrote it. I see that he was born in 1870. My grandfathers were born in 1872 and 1873 so I can relate to the mindset. As you get on in life you start to think about what you can leave behind to show that your being here made a difference. If that was his intent he has succeded.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 19:39)
Novice ( 17:03 ) Will do....Interesting night for Gold in Asia tonight..Are we headed below the recent low of 313 before the year is out as Glenn thinks or is the low already in??...Sounds good about ABX but if I buy more I'm thinkin of have some diversity in the gold share holdings...

(Tue Jul 29 1997 19:45)
Asians take vows. ( Yuan Bloc too? )

(Tue Jul 29 1997 19:50)
Oversupply of Shanghai property ( Same URL as earlier post )

(Tue Jul 29 1997 19:59)
Tort: Funnel clouds...hail....flooding...and in Albuquerque of all places!....Did you drown??...We had one of the driest julys on record in Nova Scotia....Must be El Nino....

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:03)
@let's try this
For Curious:*7OLrh/time/magazine/1997/dom/970804/business.wal_strets_do.html>*7OLrh/time/magazine/1997/dom/970804/business.wal_strets_do.html

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:03)
Speaking of Asian currencies, the winner of the "Best Name for an Asian Currency" contest goes to Vietnam, with the Dong. Vietnamese currency traders are always very proud to be long dong.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:07)
Some Ford replacement parts up 10,000% since 1994 in Brazil.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:07)
Curious -- It must be all of those dots..... :- )

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:12)
PANDA: Can you "lift" the Crashmeister article instead of posting it? I still can't read it. ( Still having EBN trouble here )

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:12)
@ The Public Library
Donald: Yes, agree. Also, someone had commented that the subsequent events in the political arena during the 60's and 70's probabley had Mr. Nock spinning in his grave. He past on in August, l945.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:13)
Ron-sack...Risk Reward
Volatility still remains too high for not in. I will w/w till it goes sideways for a while ( whenever that will be ) then maybe. I still haven't found anything good on the put side either. So, I will stay away...Now Platinum...hmmmm...My slightly out of the money calls are IN THE MONEY now and am w/w to turn them into a 'free trade'...that precious White has Explosive Fundamentals.

ANyway, I am too consumed by Cocoa, OJ, Grains, El Ninito now. There are Soooo many markets...too little time...has everyone had their frozen concentrate today?


Glenn-18:59 - Thanks, your last 2 sentences said it all. Right on Bro!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:15)
er and Curiouser
Panda: Beats me, too !

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:16)
@credit belongs to CURIOUS (thanks for the story)

AUGUST 4, 1997 VOL. 150 NO. 5




Even with the Dow Jones Industrial Average flying high over 8000, few on Wall Street say they expect a crash anytime soon.
Indeed, the world is a prosperous, friendly place these days, and the coffee-shop buzz is, "How do I get in the market?" not
"How do I get out?" But make no mistake, the stock market could crash again. Mechanically, there is nothing in place to
guarantee that the Dow won't fall 1000 points by lunch and another 800 points in the afternoon. Get real! An 1,800-point
decline today would be the same 23% drop that occurred on Oct. 19, 1987. And that plunge took place after the Dow had
already fallen 17% from its speculative peak three months earlier, which was 10 years ago this month. An exact recurrence
would put the Dow at 5200 by mid-October.

Of course things are much different. The economy is on a firmer footing. And since that horrendous crash, much has been done
to forestall a repeat debacle. For example, brokerage firms and mutual-fund companies have invested billions of dollars in
technology so that they can answer all the calls and execute all the trades on the busiest days. The New York Stock Exchange,
which has never traded even 1 billion shares in a day, currently has the capacity to trade 3 billion shares. On the computerized
Nasdaq stock market, capacity was a mere 250 million shares a day in 1987 and is now 1 billion shares, headed for 1.5 billion
shares by the end of the year.

The N.Y.S.E. has adopted a flight of funny-named trading curbs: "collars" prevent certain computerized stock trading when the
Dow is up or down 50 points in a day; the "sidecar" rule gives small orders priority when the market is moving briskly; and
"circuit breakers" halt trading for 30 minutes when the Dow is down 350 points and for one hour when it is down 550 points.
The curbs ensure that investors have time to think. But at the end of the day, if what they think is that they should sell, their
brokers, the fund companies and the exchanges are ready to accommodate them--so look out below.

Again, this isn't to be taken as a crash prediction. When the bull market finally ends, which it must, it certainly doesn't have to
be in calamity. The more natural turn would be to a slow, grinding bear market, in which stocks fall some 20% to 30% over a
year or longer. No panic. Just a lot of selling, most likely hinged to a downturn in the economy.

But it's worth noting that even with all the adjustments since the '87 crash, another meltdown is quite possible. And that hasn't
been lost on a number of institutions quietly preparing for the worst. Some of the nation's largest mutual-fund companies, like
Vanguard and Fidelity, have detailed battle plans should the market fall apart. Brokerage firms seem less frenetic but no less
prepared, as is the government. Maybe these parties aren't as sanguine about the markets as they would have us believe.

In government, the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, formed after the '87 crash, still meets every six weeks
for an hour or so to discuss things like bank failures and stock-market crashes. The group is chaired by Treasury Secretary
Robert Rubin and includes Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, as well the heads of the Securities and Exchange
Commission, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and others. Officials are reluctant to say anything about contingency
planning out of concern that it would be misinterpreted as a statement on the market--something they want no part of. Early
last week Rubin was asked if he believed stock prices were too high. "Those are the kind of judgments each investor has to
make for himself," he demurred.

What is known, though, is that the group is especially concerned about the potential for outflows from mutual funds, which
have become swollen with individual's deposits this decade. One of the group's first courses of action during a crash would be
to call fund companies to monitor activity. Another virtual given is that the Fed would cut interest rates, as it did in 1987,
putting enough money into the economy to ease bottlenecks. That single act--cutting rates--is widely viewed as having greatly
limited the carnage in '87.

The overriding belief of the President's group--and this is true of nearly all relevant institutions--is that virtually any market
decline would be tolerable so long as it was orderly. The ability to take all calls and get all trades done is paramount. It helps
avoid panic, which leads to irrational selling and a stock-market death spin. Says William Johnston, president of the N.Y.S.E.:
"We see ourselves as a utility. Our job is to supply enough power at peak times to keep every light burning." Hence the Big
Board's vast trading capacity, built at a cost of $1 billion since '87.

Brokerages and fund companies have more complex battle plans. For starters, they have to be able to pick up the phone every
time it rings. That was a major problem in the '87 crash. Clients couldn't get through. And not every client who gets through
wants to trade. Many just want advice. Merrill Lynch's crisis plan is drawn from the '87 experience. It will depend on its
far-flung army of brokers to stay in contact with clients, while management's main task will be to stay in touch with brokers. At
the first sign of a meltdown, spokesman Jim Wiggins says, Merrill chairman David Komansky will gather the 13-member
management committee in a crisis room on the 32nd floor of the firm's New York City headquarters. The room has video
conferencing and a bank of phones. The first task will be to assess the reasons for the crash and decide quickly on a sell, hold
or buy strategy to communicate to the branches.

Fund companies probably have the toughest chore, and maybe that's why they seem most concerned with having an
emergency plan. They have thousands of clients and often no extensive broker network to hold hands--just an 800 number
and a staff of phone operators. "For us the front door is the telephone," says Vanguard president John Brennan. Vanguard,
which manages some $300 billion, has what it calls a bear-market task force. In the past few months the company has been
taking pains to scale back its clients' expectations for returns and even warning that a bear market is inevitable. To prepare
itself, Vanguard has built an off-site "war room" loaded with phones and has a "Swiss army" of about 1,000 telephone
representatives that can be deployed almost instantly, doubling the firm's call capacity.

Fidelity Investments, with more than $500 billion in assets, is no less concerned about a crash crush. Steven Akin, who
manages Fidelity's electronic systems, says the firm can also double its phone capacity in an emergency, partly by dropping
many live phone and computer lines now stored in the cafeteria ceiling. During the past year, Fidelity has paid particular
attention to crisis planning. "More dry runs, more computer simulations to make sure equipment is working, information is
disseminated quickly, and lines of credit are reconfirmed with our banks," says Robert Pozen, president of Fidelity
Management and Research Co.

In varying degrees, fund companies across the country are engaged in such planning, their central concern being the ability to
take phone calls. Of course, there is no perfect test of a contingency plan. No one can know exactly where the pressure points
lie until it's time to deal with them. The good news is that heads of state and money seem prepared for the worst. Or is that the
bad news?

--With reporting by Sam Allis/Boston, Jane Van Tassel/New York and Adam Zagorin/Washington


If the stock market takes a severe hit, these are the key players who will decide what gets done in Washington and on Wall
Street to try to keep the damage to a minimum.

Treasury Secretary
The President's point man. Would I.D. troubled firms and coordinate government plans

Fed Chairman
Top banker would work to assure liquidity and would stand ready to cut interest rates

CEO, Merrill Lynch
Would call on firm's experts to assess the problem and devise the best strategy for clients

CEO, Vanguard
Would activate off-site "war room" and call on "Swiss army" of reps to field frantic calls

On first alert--if the Dow fell 200 points--would be on the phone to Rubin, Greenspan

Would activate cafeteria phone bank, double number of reps, monitor funds' cash


A market dive would be big news. Here's where you would find the best info:

Reigning champ of biz news delivers breathless coverage even on boring days. Imagine if it had better material

Biz-TV upstart airs continuous market coverage and offers steady diet of interviews with Wall Street's finest

The online version ( ) is stuffed with information and the latest market analysis

Popular AOL forum ( keyword: fool ) would offer news and lots of chat from the hard hit

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:21)
@panda and all
Credit where credit is due - credit here belongs to NJ - I merely looked up the on-line version of the print story NJ reported.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:22)
Glenn you stated we hit 340 many times then broke. Isnt actually true that we hit it ince in April and bounced around and broke in July. Not really a long time frame to create resistance. I respect your opinion but selling long term calls on a one day decline sounds like you are on the bear camp as many others are and as you stated before your floor compadres said there is never a wrong time to sell calls. When real new bulls begin it is many time with good upswings followed by sharp setbacks to keep the wall of worry there. If there is a wall of worry it is for gold and the price action is no longer in compliance with the long lasting bear ie everyone believes every decline. However, I heard analyst from Goldman said to expect stronger gold/ maybe they are not bearish enough ie no bottom yet or Goldman knows something.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:22)
Curious and Donald -- I am still having quite a bit of trouble getting in to the EBN site. My success rate is about once in ten attempts. Strangely enough, the ABN site works O.K. Same people bring you that site ( Dow Jones ) .

Curious, you got me as to the URL faux pas!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:26)
Glenn: I,m sure I speak for many when I say your comments are greatly valued. Very few of us will ever experience the view from the trenches that you give us, all with real people and money on the line. Along with RJ, George Cole, Aurophile, Earl, Ted, and so many others that are active participants in the market, the discussion of your thinking and actions is a great help to those of us that aren,t quite so active. In your recent post you said that your bearish near term feelings had little to do with the action on the floor and everything to do with your numbers. Could you expand a little on the numbers you find important, without giving too much away of course?

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:30)
Proposed "Super IRA Bill" might increase US gold coin demand by $10 billion this year! The purpose of the Bill is to stimulate savings. Passage will boast bullion prices:

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:33)
more costello bashing

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:36)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:37)
The early returns are in...EBN Gold up .60 and Silver unch....Evening Panda...a little better!...

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:38)
@ Looking At The Past:
Just tried something I been meaning to do for a long time. Went back to the first several days of the Kitco Discussion Group commentaries. Just changed the dates above to April 10, l996 ( the first day of posting with an introduction by Bart ) and April 12, l996. I believe with the current system one can only attempt to read 5 days at a time. Interesting to see some of the names that popped up during the first few days. Pleanty to read in the archives when things get slow. And you don't need the search button.

Information agent
(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:40)
Tuesday July 29 2:32 PM EDT

Azeris in talks with US firms on $500m gold deal

BAKU, July 29 ( Reuter ) - Baku will present proposals to a consortium of U.S. companies on a possible $500 million joint deal to
mine gold in Azerbaijan during President Haydar Aliyev's visit to the United States, a top official said on Tuesday.

First Deputy Prime Minister Abbas Abbasov said the draft of the proposed deal envisaged joint exploration and exploitation of nine
gold mines with estimated reserves of 270 tonnes of gold, 250 tonnes of silver and 1.5 million tonnes of ore.

``If negotiations are successful, the American side may have a 49 percent stake in the contract,'' Abbasov told Reuters

He said the consortium was called RV Investment Group Services LLS but added he did not know which companies were

Aliyev began a ten-day official state visit to the United States on Monday.

Abbasov said the gold sites were located in Azerbaijan's Nakhichevan autonomous republic, and the Zangelan, Kelbadjar, Tauz
and Kedabek regions of the country.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:41)
Gold in Asia Tonight
Ted: Right on! The night is still young but it is the first after the
long time that the gold goes up instead of dropping after the Sydney
market opened. Have the same good feeling as Sunday night - it was the
first time that the gold did hold it's ground pretty good in Asia.
But.. I may be totally wrong

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:44)
TED -- Bears prefer cooler weather. :- ) )

I pretty sure that my EBN problem is ISP related, even if they don't want to admitt it!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:54)
24hr gold quotes
Panda try this URL, ( it was posted before ) and it's excellent
Gold up .80 to 326.60

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:58)
Another idea regarding taking a look into the past is to try changing the two 97's above ( the year spot ) to 96's and see what comes up from the past.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 20:58)
Another idea regarding taking a look into the past is to try changing the two 97's above ( the year spot ) to 96's and see what comes up from the past.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 21:01)
Should the Argentinian Postal Service be privatized? ( in Spanish )

Bill Buckler
(Tue Jul 29 1997 21:01)
FLASH! Oz Reserve Bank cuts rates! The RBA has just announced a 0.5% cut to Australia's official interest rates. This is the fifth cut this year and brings rates down to 5.0% - *below* U.S. rates for the first time since the Aussie Dollar floated in December 1983.

Check out the Australian Broadcasting Company's website at

They posted a story about a lessening of the expectation of a rate cut at 7:39AM Australian time. Two hours later ( at 9:45 ) , they were announcing the cut.

The RBA has cut rates five times since last July. They have also cut the PAR ( Prime Assets Ratio ) in half ( from 6% to 3% ) and, of course, they have sold 2/3 of "their" Gold so they can earn the Government some interest. This is what I call "going for growth" - and then some.

Re Gold: The $US Gold price now has a double top to go along with its recent double bottom. Trading range between $US 318 and $US 329 on the P&F chart. Check it out, with a comparison to the chart in $A at

George Cole
(Tue Jul 29 1997 21:06)
I've said it before and will say it again -- reaction to news is by far the most important gauge of a market's technical position. If bullion and gold stocks continue to react well to news, an upside breakout is in the cards very shortly. If the good reaction to news fades, then all bets are off.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 21:32)
Well, the freeways in So. Calif. are as crowded as I remember them, Everybody moves here @ 80 MPH. I do enjoy the nice resturants & the ambience. On to San Clemente & Laguena Beach and then Victorville & San Deigo. Hope the market ( gold ) is going up & all you guys are making money.

God Bless

Hello Reify Hope you are back from London


(Tue Jul 29 1997 21:34)
@ Next Week:
Anybody going to the annual Gold Show in Las Vegas next week? I understand that Luie, Luie of Wall Street Week will be the keynote speaker. Anybody who is going, please feel free to send info this way. Maybe you might even find a internet hookup at the show. Its August 5-6.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 21:38)

The accolades - while few - to catboy for calling a 325 close today truly amaze me. Anybody, and I mean ANYBODY, who calls a closing price 2 weeks in advance is a fool, ignoramus, know-nothing, illiterate, analphabet, lowbrow, philistine, vulgarian, duffer, thickhead, dumbbell, dimwit, numskull, dunce, bonehead, blockhead, boob, goof, turkey, goose, bungler, greenhorn, novice, raw recruit, simpleton..

To the list above add dupe to those that give him praise.

I know the lurking hepboy is fuming right about now but he believes too much, his own press. I am flabbergasted that anyone else does.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 21:42)
to Kitco
RJ: Thank you, thank you, thank you ! I've been lurking all night, waiting for you to appear ! Partly due to your level of confidence about gold's direction, I put on some brand new shorts late last week. I was afraid for a little while yesterday that I might take it in the shorts, or perhaps lose my shorts altogether. But today, I experienced a very pronounced and pleasant swelling in those shorts. I sincerely hope that you took your own advice, hiked up your skirt, and gave your shorts some more exposure. If you did, you probably have a handsome bulge in your shorts also !
Gosh it's easy to make money when the Financial Establishment is in your corner. You don't have to bite no ears, or nuffin ! The trend is my friend, the trend is my friend ...

PS: Requiescat in Pace, Hepcat. Either the "cat" was an unappreciated financial genius, or he simply had more arse than a dunnyful of divas !

(Tue Jul 29 1997 21:43)
@ Strength
George: The strength in the XAU and HUI Indexes was great to see and a nice surprise. So far, I am only seeing strength as far as the XAU is concerned. What with the continuing record breaking in the Dow and the continuing strenght in the Dollar, the XAU is still doing fine, thank you. We are now back to where we broke on the Aussie gold sale news. At the moment the XAU is sitting just below the 50 day moving average line. Ever since the June break in the gold shares in 1996 everytime the XAU moved over the 50 days moving average, it eventually gave us its gains and resumed its downward course. I say this time IF we get over the 50 day moving average which is located just about resistence at 98, the Xau WILL NOT turn back this time and we will then have consensus that the bear market in the gold shares has been broken. ... All this in my humble opinion. But first we have to get over the 50 moving average otherwise.....

Lan Man
(Tue Jul 29 1997 21:47)
@Closing Bell
COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended mostly lower Tuesday,
giving back Monday's gains, on good volume, with the exception of
palladium which saw new contract highs on NYMEX.

"The volume was solid again in COMEX gold, but much of the volume
was in the August/December and other switches, ahead of the August
gold first notice day Thursday," North American Equity Services
floor trader, John Geraghty, said. "Fund covering and dealer buying
has provided good support in the past week or so, but strong
resistance is building up around $330.00 basis spot, where some
central bank interest was noted last week," he said.

Gold prices have been consolidating in the past three weeks after
hitting a 12-year low in early July at $314.00 an ounce. The slide
in prices has made life difficult for gold miners, with Australian
producer hedging noted in the past week despite the low prices,
though some gold miners have also been buying back hedges to book

Late Monday Newmont Gold Corp said it had purchased 1.1 million
ounces of gold to offset a hedge position put on at $420 an ounce,
booking a $100 million profit. "We are currently estimating that
only four of 13 primary gold producers - Barrick, Cambior, Newmont,
and Placer Dome - will report positive earnings for 1997," Salomon
Brothers gold analyst Leanne Baker said.

"As the spread between the price of gold and cash costs narrows,
some mines have been rendered uneconomic and have caused management
to suspend or close operations," she said. "Barrick announced a 29
percent cutback in production at its El Indio mine ( in Chile ) , in
response to high labor costs, which management has attempted to
remedy with a lay off of almost 20 percent of the workers at the

COMEX September silver ended down 3.3 cents at $4.325 an ounce,
though September silver remains trapped in its $4.20-4.40 range,
after spot silver saw three year lows earlier this month. The spot
gold/silver ratio slipped to 75.04-to-1 Tuesday, after recovering
to a six month high at 76.79 in mid-July.

NYMEX October platinum closed down $4.20 an ounce at $4.211, after
three days of gains, which took the contract back to near the highs
seen in early June, when spot platinum saw a seven year high at
$500 an ounce. But the NYMEX October/January spread remained highly
backwardated around $12.50 an ounce, while the October NYMEX
platinum/COMEX gold spread was at contract highs of $93.00.

NYMEX September palladium gained a further $1.30 an ounce to
$194.30, after seeing a new life-of-contract high intraday at
$195.75, on light fund buying. Earlier prices had continued to
climb on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange ( TOCOM ) overnight, helped by
broker shortcovering, and concerns about future Russian supplies,
after news Russia's precious metal export agency, Almaz, may close
its Tokyo office.

For the full text story, see

COMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.

Aug97 327.90 328.40 325.10 325.80 _3.70 414.50 314.60
Sep97 326.30 326.30 326.30 u326.60 _3.70 323.00 317.50
Oct97 329.50 330.50 327.50 327.80 _3.70 426.50 316.80
Dec97 332.00 332.50 329.10 329.80 _3.60 456.50 318.50
Feb98 334.50 334.50 331.80 331.90 _3.60 424.00 322.50
Apr98 335.30 335.30 334.10 333.90 _3.60 408.40 325.00
Aug98 339.80 339.80 339.30 d338.40 _3.60 403.80 345.70
Est. Sales 84358

COMEX - 5,000 troy oz. _ cents per troy oz.
Jul97 431.50 431.50 429.50 430.20 _3.00 631.00 418.50
Sep97 434.50 436.50 428.00 432.50 _3.30 576.00 418.00
Dec97 441.00 442.50 435.00 438.80 _3.20 701.90 424.00
Mar98 446.00 446.50 443.00 445.00 _3.20 573.00 432.00
May98 450.50 451.50 450.50 448.80 _3.20 564.00 437.00
Est. Sales 8904

NYMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz
Sep97 192.00 195.75 188.00 194.90 +1.30 195.00 128.75
Dec97 182.00 187.00 182.00 u187.90 +1.30 187.00 120.25
Est. Sales 590

COMEX - 50 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
Oct97 422.00 425.50 417.00 421.10 _4.20 429.00 355.50
Jan98 406.00 411.00 406.00 408.60 _3.70 424.00 360.00
Est. Sales 2761

(Tue Jul 29 1997 21:52)
Is anyone else around here just a little uneasy with with this new "Balanced Budget" deal and the accompanying mutual masturbation fest raging at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue? Why now? Does this prevent the fed from raising interest rates?

Fellow thinkers, I have an uneasy feeling that there is a band of politicians wheeling some kind of horse up to the castle gate.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 21:54)
@...$313 NOT the Bottom ?
Glenn: I missed your rationale to support the idea that $313 was NOT the bottom ( I presume ) in the current Bear. Was it something that your heard or deduced from the actors and action in the Pits or is it a 'gut' feeling ?


(Tue Jul 29 1997 22:01)
@ I Can't Keep Up With These People:
Novice: What I told you about the "one hour" of postings at SI now seems to have changed to "the last 25 messages". I guess people could not handle one hour's of posting at SI. : )

(Tue Jul 29 1997 22:05)
Goldbug Omega 1
- Falling, maybe Failing, not.

Paths Quoted - History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes ___Mark Twain.
- To which I: "Using that reasoning, there will be plenty of $38 gold to be had in the future." ( please dont quote me on that )

Mike Sheller @ Pepi, Issa goood boy!
- Tallented dog! Worth more than his weight in gold. Even worth more than the shoes he has chewed.

Tortfeasor @ 07:40
- With all this talk about the lifting my skirt, my sympathies are entirely with Jeeves.

Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 10:59
spirts ( ` ) : RJ, Your in good sprits this mourning
- Im really not sure how to read this. Is this from spurts? Addressing my spritz? And about this mourning, who died? Oh yeah, gold.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 22:11)
Another player
Addicted ( to Kitco ) - My shorts indeedy do bulge. Ask anyone whos peered up the skirt! Welcome aboard. Short.... were up is down and lower is higher.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 22:13)
RJ: Thanks for the welcome ! Is it you that owns the aircraft carrier "Kickin' Back" ?

(Tue Jul 29 1997 22:15)
@...the Bull and the Boomer Theory
If we miss GSC's mid-August golden Bull and DOW demise it probably would be deferred until the Q3 earnings results leak-out in October. If we don't get a profit-taking sell-off by October ( a traditional favorite for corrections ) then we may have underestimated the Baby Boom inheritance theory.

The BB generation ( 1947-66 ) are entering an age when inheritances start filtering down. The theory suggests that Boomers are starting to inherit a trillion dollar pie from their parents and this 'feel good' atmosphere is a precondition to the longevity of the BULL. If the money is moving from hard estate assets sold off and some of the proceeds reallocated to paper we can readily determine a significant source of the 'retail' fund flows into stks.

I am 44 and both my parents have passed on ( my Dad passed away in march at age 81 ) . Even though my Dad never achieved any material financial success in his life he still had about $300k for the five of us. I certainly didn't get 'irrationally exuberant' with my $60k inheritance but its all gravy - depending on your perspective.

Think about it. If my immigrant parents could leave $300k after a good life without hardship what kind of 'real' money is floating down to those whose parents accumulated more for fewer offspring ? Where would this 'easy' money go ?

Well you get the message. Time will tell when this stk Bull will falter and draw the shorts away from the gold market. OCTOBER. 1997.


(Tue Jul 29 1997 22:20)
This Time IT IS Different
Byron: Re your post about the little guy getting screwed with Bre-X while the big shots get away. The lawyers are working feaverishly to rectify this situation:

"...Barrick Gold Corp. was drawn in to the Bre-X Minerals Ltd. furore yesterday after a blockbuster lawsuit filed in Texas claimed it tested Busang core samples for gold and came up empty handed. Although Barrick has not been named as a defendant in the suit, it alleges that a high profile New York analyst, who once worked for Barrick, knew that the gold miner had come up empty well before it was finally revealed that Busang was actually a fraud...."

"... The lawsuit alleges Lehman analyst Daniel McConvey, Barrick's comptroller for six years before joining the brokerage, knew about Barrick's negative tests..."

Full article at:

Who knows? With a few breaks like this, Bre-X may not be a bad investment after all!! :- )

(Tue Jul 29 1997 22:23)
What Goes Around Comes Around:
GFD: Poor Barrick. They were born with a silver spoon in their mouth.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 22:24)
Goldman @ 17:16
- The only way gold will rise to 380 by the end of August is if Boris Yelstin or Nelson Mandella dies, Or Bill Clinton - after being elected King For Life - dies and Hillary ascends to the throne as Queen For Life.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 22:35)
- While I generally pride myself on the higher arts of Banter, the aircraft carrier "Kickin' Back" reference, has me stumped.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 22:36)
Byron: BTW I really enjoyed Mr. Nock's writing, especially "Isaiah's Job". Thanks!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 22:41)
RJ: Sorry, someone posted that they were on board the "Kickin' Back" ( ie. a yacht, not really a carrier ) - I thought that person was you.
Reason I asked: I had a great idea last night. Gold is almost twice as dense as lead. When gold becomes cheaper than lead, we can mint lead coins, and make some very attractive and compact anchors and anchor chains for boats of all sizes out of gold !

(Tue Jul 29 1997 22:44)
@...not a lawyer but paid a few high-priced Bay street lawyers in my time
GFD: It's funny how much law you learn when you experience the weight of the law and the resultant legal churning by its 'professional' practitioners ( no offense Tort - keep up the jokes it looks good on your profession ) . I paid enough legal feess that I should be permitted to practice law as a consolation prize.

I am not an American but I am well aware of the litigious nature of US citizens ( I have a current dispute pending with a high-profile Boston vencap firm ) .

There is no way that anyone could successfully sue Barrick for performing private due diligence on Busang. Barrick was probably required to sign a nondisclosure and confidentiality agreement with Bre-X, as did Freeport.
In this case the only obligation is that which is defined in the agreement and subject to securities disclosure rules. In the case of Freeport it was specifically required to perform DD on the Busang claim and to report its findings to the partners in the venture. Freeport was one of the partners and therefore had an obligation to publicly issue full, true, and plain disclosure of all material changes in the financial status of the company. Clearly, if Busang was real then FCX would be a material beneficiary as proposed managing partner.

Therein lies the distinction. Barrick was NOT a partner nor in a position to benefit from Busang without the consent of the Indonesian authorities and Bob Hassan - and without a serious exchange of paper. As such it was not obligated to disclose any information pursuant to securities law.

If any lawyer hopes to succeed in any case against Barrick in this matter the case would need to be heard in Louisiana or Mississippi and the Judge and jury would need to be well paid in advance.


(Tue Jul 29 1997 22:50)
- Ah! I believe the gentleman in question is the kind Mr. Schippi - I hope I spelled that correctly - who is a Newporter and a kindred spirit. As for gold as an anchor, lets not get carried away, what goes down, will eventually go up

- PS
Actually, there is no such thing as a Newporter. Those of us who live on the California Gold Coast, just think of ourselves as blessed.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 22:53)
RJ: Thanks for the correction - apologies to Schippi. As for gold as an anchor - just a bearish daydream ( you know, kind of like $2000 by 2000 for a goldbug ) .

(Tue Jul 29 1997 22:53)
This may be a Contrarian Sign

Talking about contrarian indicators, Placer Dome just dropped its asking price for the fine ole Sigma Mine and much younger Kiena Mine by C $15 million to C $55 million. Mcwatters Mining is still first in line.
Rough numbers indicate that PDG will keep about a 10% interest. These are presently producing mines.
Check out the stories at symbol PDG and the more detailed scoop at the symbol MCW on the CyberStok group here at KITCO.
While nothing is ever certain; MCWATTERS should to be followed closly.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 22:59)
RJ...there was only one...
person who made reference to HEP-RAT-CAT and his 325 call...hey...wait a're talking about me! But...I... I'm...not said philistine. Ok. That's better! Hey wait a minute...OUCH. And the only duffing I do is on the golf course...


note to self: Use more sarcasm when referencing to catboy...

(Tue Jul 29 1997 23:01)
Justice Texas Style
Bob: Actually I believe the suit is filed in Texas. The suit was targeted at Lehman Brothers not Barric ( according to the article ) although it may be a question of time. Anyway, Barric does not need to be involved merely half of Wall Street...

There was quite a debate over liability when the story first broke but in essence the key will be weather the courts feel the analysts were negligent. That is, negligent in that sufficient due dilligence ( "best efforts" is the phrase used in the boiler plate ) was conducted or not. The courts are coming down hard in this area and will not "allow the law to be shield for negligence" which means that all the boiler plate in the world will not save you if you are deemed to be negligent.

It will be an interesting case to watch as it will set the standards for analytical reports for the forseeable future.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 23:09)

- Actually there were two, which puts my insult ratio at about 13 to 1, just as it should be. I KNEW you were a duffer, thats why I hid that one in the middle. Very interesting you would pick THAT out.

Away.......To the thesaurus.

(Tue Jul 29 1997 23:09)
EBN Gold up .20 and Silver down 1 cent....Good night ALL....

(Tue Jul 29 1997 23:17)
does this mean...oh god no...let it not be...
that we won't be throwing darts together in the pubs of Newport beach? Aw shucks! eat some analphabet soup!


(Tue Jul 29 1997 23:22)
- Choose your dart, for I am a Newporter!

(Tue Jul 29 1997 23:32)
WW.... You seem to wonder if GLENN remembers correctly on the bounces off $340.00....He has to look at several months and futures contracts at one time, therefore his way to remember all is to write down each day something like "March = Spot + $2.10" or "December = Spot + $7.30"...It generally correlates to a certain amount of cents per month....Indeed the months we were using when spot bounced off 340 were at 344.50 down to 342.50.....His calculator has to be able to function in all months where ours only has to work in one....

(Tue Jul 29 1997 23:59)
Savings @ Not to Worry, be Happy !
Canadians' savings hit new low, but investments boom:
July 29 1997, Royal Bank Study.

Bank of Canada, reported in May that debt as a ratio of disposable
income had hit 94.3 %, up from 92 % in mid 1996, and up from 50 % in 1986

John McCallum, chief economist Royal Bank ( Re: new study from Royal Bank )
"At first glance, the numbers - based on the first three months of 1997 -
present a puzzle "

"If people are saving less ( 10 % before 1991-92 recession, to 1.7 % first
quarter 1997 ) then ever have, then how are we ( Canada ) financing this
record-high level of investment???"

Jim Stanford, economist with Canadian Auto Workers Union
" Its clearly a legacy of the anti-inflation, balanced-budget policies of
the 90's, which are very popular on Bay Street but have been a disaster
for Canadian Households"

Modern Artificial Control - Great, isn't it !
Gold, will put a short circuit, in that wonderful control system.