Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 00:01)
I ,for one,quite enjoy the "lively exchange of views" presented here
and find the differences stimulating ;keep up the good work.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 00:02)
Peutz: What you said was "Without Central Bank sales, gold could possibly be at $450 instead of $330." I believe this implies that the CBs have depressed gold's price by some $120 or 27% of the would-be price and 36% of the current price. No one takes an oath to post here but some consistency might be expected from those who are confident in their portrayal of the state of global finance.

Email received on KRY/PDG saga
(Fri Aug 01 1997 00:03)
@Las Cristinas
Email received from Grandich Letter updates:

CSJ Judge Acuna suspends non-admittance rulings on Las Cristinas 4 & 6
-- report by VHeadline/VENews  Editor Roy S. Carson --

Caracas: Thursday, July 31, 1997 -- Crystallex lawyers here in Caracas are
refusing to comment a VHeadline/VENews exclusive in which Venezuelan
Supreme Court of Justice ( CSJ ) Substantiation Judge Maria Luisa Acuna is
revealed to have suspended the effect of her July 15 non-admission of three
( 3 ) out of eleven ( 11 ) motions to the Supreme Court's Political Administrative
Chamber ( PAC ) 5-Justice review.

VHeadline/VENews sources say that Judge Acuna revised her earlier ruling
Tuesday, which effectively means the three non-admissions go forward for
unimpeded "appeal" review, removing any shed of doubt that Placer Dome, the
Venezuelan Guayana Corporation ( CVG ) and/or their joint venture
partnership have any further say in the matter of the Las Cristinas 4 & 6
gold-mining concessions in southeastern Bolivar State.

Asked to confirm or deny our story, lawyer Ricardo Cottin said a press
release is being prepared and he would not give advance
details. We have been unable to contact either Crystallex International ViP
Richard Marshall or CEO Marc Oppenheimer.

We have, however, sought to find out why Judge Acuna should have suspended
the non-admissions, but all we're told is that Her Honor has been rather taken
aback by the welter of desinformation propagated in the wake of her admittance
rulings two weeks ago and the variously incorrect interpretations given to
it in some sectors of the media.

Independent legal opinion says that, basically, Judge Acuna's decision to
"suspend" or "leave without effect" her previous three non-admissions doesn't
change the internal CSJ PAC decision process very much, but rather smooths
the way for procedural review towards giving Crystallex/Inversora Mael full
and final clear title to the concessions.

In separate news, our own VHeadline/VENews sources say that the Venezuelan
Registry Office has also given the CVG a decided rap over the
knuckles when, in a recent move where they tried to land-register Las
Cristinas but were foiled when Register officials caught them in the act and
warned them off in what are described as "strong terminology" for trying to
slip a crafty one past them.

The Registry office apparently sent CVG away with a flea in its ear to not
even think of returning to try to land-register Las
Cristinas 4 & 6 until after the Supreme Court has handed down its fourth and
final decision.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 00:06)
Gold Finger, I liked your post but what are you basing it on. It's my thinking that there is nothing but air in the gold market above 344 basis aug close. I use charts. what do you use?

RJ what is your exit point for gold short postions? Is it if Aug Gold closes above 344?

(Fri Aug 01 1997 00:28)
all that glitters
jgkjal : You use charts and happen to stumble on to a magic 8 BALL. I also have been known for darts. Actually and realistically fundamentals are a case here. The charts are helpful, but the move that gets on the way right from the gate is going to surprise technicians and the like. Gold has more work to do, but it could happen at any time now. Watch out shorts the bull is coming through.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 01:23)
Can't you see the crap heap?

Maybe the gaseous emissions are clouding our thinking.

No inflation? sure, why worry about the bond market, then a well timed report says, bonds are going up - interest are going rates down, because $%^&* ( : ) . Earlier, Hashimoto makes a statement and we say, hey, its about time and then the Aussies shoot their wad; crap the sky is falling. This is followed by Asian devaluations that drive the dollar up against all currencies.
All for public consumption, to cloud the truth and most here know what that is.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 01:44)
Sewerage only flow up hill under pressure

In sanitary engineering, the term sewerage contains impurities, be they chemical or human feces mixed with water. Sewerage, consisting mostly of water only flows uphill under pressure. AND BOY ARE THEY USING PRESSURE TO PUMP THE SHIT.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 01:55)
Sewerage also consists of the equiptment

AND MORE: The pumps, the treatment plants, the pipes through which the crap flow and so on, can be compared to the media, the government and the rest of the CREEPS of misinformation ( sewerage ) .

(Fri Aug 01 1997 02:20)

(Fri Aug 01 1997 02:23)
Ted. I beat ya EBN gold 324.90 up .25 AND I have got to hear about that canoe I mean kayak ride. COme on, I want to hear about it. But right now I'm off to golden dreams. See ya in the am if I decide to blow off some meetings, in the afternoon if I do my duty.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 02:42)
Since 12:30 only 2 posts ( at least since I began writing this ) and both related to the sewage ( disinformation or financial manipulation ) taking place in international market places. Could it also be that most of the 'leaders' of the countries around the world are so VERY easy to manipulate that, those ( read: covert representatives of the 'people' of the greatest nation on earth ) with the will, resources, and intent find it almost laughably simple to put forward their secret agendas. Australia's 'best' may have just given us a prime example, where even a country not considered 'backward and primitive', can be made to follow the game plan with very little coercion.
RJ - A few times lately you ( and others here ) have REALLY been on a tear railing against the sanity of anyone who dares to predict the future beyond a 4-5 day period and yet I seem to recall that only a couple of weeks ago you, yourself, were making just such a prediction calling for gold to drop to $275 in the intermediate time horizon. Cake and eat it too?
All - It's time to remember the my famous Mooney Kitco battle cry of the last year and a half. RELAX! We are all here to debate and try and learn from one another ( as many have recently been pointing out ) . If some want to day trade, fine. If some want to be long and some short, fine. If some like to predict ( short term OR long term, RJ ) based on charts, techs, or moon cycles, FINE. Live and let live and don't be like an alleycat always looking for a scrap. RELAX. Take it in and spit it out, but don't spit on each other.
Having said all that I must say that our mooncycle buddy's ( where's he been lately anyway? ) method has been about the most accurate indicator lately, as the big drop came right at the new moon, and the last full moon saw a large increase. Coincidence? Maybe. But if by chance this freak of nature occurs again expect a down movement between now and next Tuesday and a large price recovery around Aug. 18-20.
I guess I'm staying up late tonight ( now 2:30 local time ) and making this long post as tommorrow starts a long weekend in Canada and I shall not be able to share in the camraderie around here until next Tuesday as I'm heading to 'cottage country' and the cosh by a lake north of the city. No phone, NO TV, no computer, ( not even a good stereo, RJ - have to listen to CD's in car on way up or going back and forth to golf course! ) but one thing we do have there is the eerie sound of the Canadian loons calling to each other across the lakes.
AAR - Everyone have a good weekend - and please - no food fights while I'm away!

(Fri Aug 01 1997 02:53)
"A single fact can spoil a good argument."
--- Anonymous

(Fri Aug 01 1997 02:56)
Ted - You don't have to work so hard at having fun that you almost kill yourself! I won't tell you to take it easy, but be around when I get back - OK?

(Fri Aug 01 1997 03:01)

Puetz @ 21:53
I think Ill let your post stand as it is. It speaks volumes

Gunrunner @ 15:46
You are a warrior for the working day.

Thank you for illustrating the fact that some people dont see reality, they only see what they want to see. You summarize my earlier post 180 degrees from my stated positions. I write - "I wish to put no spin whatsoever on the bull/bear picture of gold. I simply report what is and trade accordingly." And - "My opinions on the current state of the gold market hurt no one. I report my trading strategies but advise no one to follow."
- However, you respond with - "RJ seems to be saying that anyone in disagreement with him belongs to the intellectually disadvangesd [sic] group known in some circles as the Ignoratti. Is he the owner of truth?" And - "Any registered investment advisor who would dictate his short-term trading practices to the Kitco public - without knowing the investment objectives and risk tolerance of each individual - would necessarily be subject to investigation by the authorities. We are here to learn from one another - and not to dictate or impose our opinion."

Do you read all words through these same obviously distorted lenses? Do you claim sunshine when rain is washing down your neck, and your goulashes go squish, squish, squish? If you would represent a persons position, do it accurately or keep SILENT, Mr. MAJORITY. Well, there is a third option: You could be wrong at the top of your voice. You can shout your inaccuracies from the rooftops. But I predict that you will do these things from the shadows. Just who is SILENT MAJORITY? And where can you be contacted? What information have you shared to achieve the lofty goals you pontificate? I am always suspicious of those who claim to speak for the MAJORITY; it has been my experience that those that do are blind to all but there own agenda.

Alas, I am no "registered investment advisor" as you would have me be. I am just a lowly gold peddler who is on a very profitable streak that let me see. has been on a very consistent winning streak ever since this bear market started about 18 months ago. What you call, "Any registered investment advisor who would dictate his short-term trading practices to the Kitco public" I would call a professional who would share his thoughts and opinions, with no hope of private gain, other than the knowledge I too can gain from the other professionals, and private investors alike, who know and live these markets. For it is this group that has a lot more than ego riding on the line, they have cash, hard earned cash, which they put at risk, and desire the best and most accurate information possible with which they might temper that risk. Mr. SILENT, I encourage you to ignore all that I write and follow your own course. I have spent enough effort on you. You will no doubt appear in some future anonymous incarnation, but I believe I will recognize your bend.

Who Cares @ 13:11
You make an entirely valid point. I do believe that there are those who have a vested interest in promoting a negative view of gold. I make my living discerning whether it is the pros or the cons that are at the helm. I then place my trades accordingly. I will say again, I dont care where it goes. Up, down, its all the same to me. Yes I hold lots-o-gold shorts now. I also have these clients hedged very nicely in long silver and long platinum. Let gold turn around and run up, I wish it would. I will make three times more on my longs than I loose on my shorts. That is the beautiful thing about the current market. Silver is scraping the bottom, and there isnt enough platinum aboveground to meet demand. Gold NEVER outperforms silver and platinum in a bull market, NEVER. I have the added advantage of a concerted effort by CBs and others to drive the price of gold lower. There is no effort to do the same with silver and platinum. Silver is going on its own merrily manipulated way as it always does. Platinum is on its way to the moon, and it might stay there awhile, at least until the higher prices encourage increased production.

DJ @ 12:38
I agree. Gold will play an important role in the future. Many of my clients are adding physical platinum to their holdings to compliment their gold. Platinum Maple Leafs are non-reportable and available from the same people who sold you your gold. Thanks for a kind word. I sometimes wonder if its worth the effort, there are many other things I could be doing.

So'Ham ( ( Ego ) ) : @ 12:10
Wiser words have yet to be written at this group! Which is more important, "making money or being right?" You will always do well if you recognize a bad trade and cut you losses early. Let the die hards go down with the ship. Gotta bad trade? On the wrong side of the market? OK, it happens.. Take your small loss, and get on the right side of the market. The market will do what it will, regardless of anyones desire that it would do otherwise.

Thank you for cutting through the BS and bringing to the forefront, this eternal truth.

D. A. @ 12:00
I will concede that "Even if the Russian CB's keep just a single ton this will be more bullish than had they done nothing at all." My point was to show an example of the type of positive spin that is often put on such non-events. Yes there are those who speak very negatively about gold these days, but the price is going down, is it not? I choose to lend more credence to those who describe what is, rather than those who describe what they want it to be.

As for your:
"As for all the other stuff about people being right, wrong or otherwise, who cares. This is a 'discussion' group where things are discussed."

I agree, this group is not to decide who is right and who is wrong. The markets tend to do that in the most obvious way. Those that are right, are making more $ than those that are wrong. I do wish though, that people would take responsibility for there irresponsibility. I have spent much time reviewing the history of this group. There are some whose story never changes and have consistently been mistaken about market direction. If you choose to lend the same weight to those with such a history, you will not find me at your table. Instead, I will be at the grand table where those who were right more than they are wrong are feasting in celebration of their good fortune.

Regarding your:
"To just say X will happen with no supporting view leaves the rest of us readers bereft of a response, irrespective of whether X actually occurs."

Is this meant to be rhetorical, or are you applying the absence of supporting view to me? Anybody who has read a fraction of my posts, has read thousands of word of supporting views.

I enjoy your challenges, as you force me to dig deeper into my ideas to find support, when I find it, I will report it, when I do not, I will modify my views. Thanks.

Duncan @ 11:55
I believe gold will hit at least $300, as this is a target for those that would drive it there. I even believe that gold could go much lower this year. I will admit to a chink in my armor. This whole capital gains cut caught me by surprise. Who would have thought that the democrats and the president would agree to a 25% cut in capital gains? Where did this come from? I worry that many equities investors would be sorely tempted to take at least some of their tremendous profits with the lower tax picture. Whether these sales would be enough to stop the roaring equities bull, I do not know. I will keep a close eye on my shorts and employ protective stops when necessary.

Oldhand @ 11:50
Your tale of competing student writers was all the more enjoyable in that it must have been created as you say, truth is indeed stranger that fiction. I rolled on the floor, even wet my skirt, kind of a skirt squirt. I wish I hadnt said that.

Lurker @ 11:20 - Thanks.

Bob @ 11:11
My retort of evening last was in direct response to your:

Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 13:00
Bob ( RJ's perfect world his logic is absolutely perfect ) :
RJ: You don't really believe that the markets are perfect and any price is the result of normal demand/supply decisions do you ?

This misrepresents my statements and opinions as posted in this group. You need not save my posts, as they are all here to review. I have reviewed my own as well as many others here. I asked that you represent my views accurately and not assign suppositions to me which I do not hold. This a simple and, Ill wager, universal consideration that all would wish for themselves. Perhaps I assume too much.

Speaking of wagers, I will not accept yours, as I have not accepted many others that have been presented to me. Hepboy has the crystal ball, not I. I play these markets for real with hundreds of thousands of dollars every day and these wagers do not excite me. They prove nothing and are simply an ego satisfying game. Besides, RJ is not a handle, it is my name. My clients, colleagues, and friends know me as RJ. One does not wager his identity.

As for review of prior posts; I found many of yours ( if you are the same Bob of prior posts ) Your interest seems to be primarily gold stocks. I no nothing of gold stocks. Zero. I found in your posts a wealth of information. I still would not invest in mining stocks. My investments in precious metals are entirely physical. For stocks, I will go to what I understand, most of which can be found on NASDAQ and S&P. I have found your posts to be well balanced and observant of prevailing market conditions.

Lan Man @ 09:26
Thank you for your very precise input. I tire of the coin debate. When those who would deny that all reserve notes are invalid, and proceed to burn them or give them away; and further, when they would conduct all their affairs with gold and silver, I will listen to their pointless insistence that reserve notes are no good. Until they do, carry on this debate without me.

By the way, what does the Lan Man stand for? Do your install or maintain Local Area Networks?

This is the last time I will respond to those who would paint me as a bear with an agenda. I have said enough times that I could care less which way it goes. Repeating this again and again serves no purpose. Perhaps when the search function is restored, we may all learn a lot more about each others positions and views. Until then, I would rather not repeat the same themes ad infinitum.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 03:02)

Speed @ 23:17--Well said.That sums up my entire
investment philosophy with respect to gold.I had already decided upon this course of action prior to my arrival at Kitco.It is my belief that gold will prove to be the most profitable investment between now and the year 2000.

Who Cares?
(Fri Aug 01 1997 03:12)
Who really cares?

Puetz was a *tad* harsh on RJ. Me, I think RJ's time horizon is
clearly implied in his postings. As is his leveraging. : )

I just think he's not made a good risk assessment. ; )

Re: a previous comment on this era of "boundless prosperity" -
Somebody, somewhere, could probably make a damn good case that
the post-Civil War was *substantially* more prosperous in terms
of material goods.

The biggest thing that bothers me, an information industry
participant, is the hue and cry I hear from those outside the
industry. I mean, if an IS PROJECT MANAGER can't make accurate
estimates about the TRUE VALUE AND PRICE of information, what
on EARTH are "traders on Wall Street" doing, believing they
can accurately assess the information future, value or impact?

The Industrial Revolution was quantifiable. The Information Age
is not. It's not even close yet. Anybody managing IS projects
KNOWS this. The bullish stampeders do not.

This bothers me far more than RJ's time horizon, Hepcat's postings,
drops ( or rises in gold, since that means I buy less : ) ) , or
my computer's "C" key.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 03:18)
@the scene
Mooney -- I too have a line on my chart at next Tuesday pointing to a short term turning point in gold. I believe it'll fall until then, but that is of course presuming it doesn't cross above resistance somehow and makes a top then. Either way, it should be a short term turning point day, whatever the price becomes. Could be a 'bit' volatile!

(Fri Aug 01 1997 03:26)
@the scene
IMHO, silver is primed to make a 20 cent move up if it sees ANY higher price than it had Thursday! Question now is, will it?

Who Cares?
(Fri Aug 01 1997 03:27)
RJ cares too much. :)

Mondo post, RJ. One nice thing about the Net, it's got this way
of *really* kicking your ass emotionally when you first confront
it. : )

You take it too seriously, but I realized that the great majority
of posters here haven't participated in the real Net, either. Not
that it matters. It's just kind of odd to find such an island
of.. well, emotional reaction. It's pretty hard to get the type
of reaction that Hepcat got in any of the political newsgroups.

To set the record straight - I also like to poke and prod at
inconsistent belief systems. I no longer doubt, for one second,
that conspiracies exist; in fact, they *permeate* the modern
world. It's nice to see you acknowledge both sides of the eagle. : )

To wit, and to those who doubt ( i.e. have been brainwashed into
knee-jerk denial, just I was : ) ) -

Sit down and create a clear, concise definition of
"conspiracy". Here's the one that I get out my
students -

a ) Must have 2 or more parties
b ) Must involved an exchange of information : )
( oops, there's that dang "unquantifiable"
factor again )
c ) Must involved a THIRD party who is denied
participation in the "information exchange"
d ) The original two parties must act on the
belief that they can benefit ( profit ) from
the ignorance of the third party.

Try using THAT definiton on your employees or your wife. : )

(Fri Aug 01 1997 05:15)
MIKE SHELLER: Your Jul 31 23:11 says it all. We should take what we can from what is posted here and not get upset when we disagree with something. Anyway, you know what Keats said about the long run.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 05:28)
STEVE: Your 21:53 post reminded me that we are all Barts' guests. Thanks for speaking out about how guests should speak to one another.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 05:55)
A variety of stories about Thailand and the aftermath of the Bhat devaluation. Increases in fuel prices, IMF demands that the VAT tax be raised 30% before assistance, Requests for govt. assistance from telecommunications and paper making industries. Deja Vu? ( This is today news. The date error is the publishers )

(Fri Aug 01 1997 06:05)
Same pattern for gold in Asian trading as yesterday as it started off in the minus column and is now up .60....Another sunny day here and the drought continues!...

(Fri Aug 01 1997 06:15)
My ISP or the Web is like molasses today. I will just summarize three items from Japan. Japanese new housing starts down 11%, new car sales down 10%, stocks down 527 overnight.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 06:22)
Mooney ( 2;56 ) Thanks my friend!...Closest I've ever come to cashin it in and while it was a rush,I don't know if I want to repeat that experience at least for another week or so anyway....Ya only go around ONCE!

Mike Sheller
(Fri Aug 01 1997 06:22)
Pass the Chicken Paprikash
RJ: Re your biblical 3:01: In Hungary, "squishing goulashes" might indicate too much gravy and not enough beef, potatoes, and paprika. Check that recipe. ( $- ) )

(Fri Aug 01 1997 06:24)
If pounds were dollars

What if pounds ( the measure of weight ) were similar in nature to dollars ? Lets say you have been monitoring your weight for the last 25 years. The first time you weighed yourself was in January 1972 when the reading on the scale said 170 lb. You were in pretty good shape and this was a reasonable weight for someone of your height. However, despite the fact that you were watching what you were eating and getting regular exercise, each month you weighed yourself you were, according to the scales, slightly heavier than the month before. By January 1976 you were weighing in at a very chunky 260 lb, even though you still felt the same as you did in 1972. In fact, there was also no noticeable change in your appearance despite the extra 90 lbs. Depressed by this weight gain and the election of Jimmy Carter, you decided to stop weighing yourself. The depression remained for several years, until in 1983, after 3 years of Reaganomics and with an economy obviously on the way up, you decided to weigh yourself again. After all, you were feeling great ! You couldn't find your old scales so you purchased a new set . You hopped on to the new scales with confidence, expecting to see your reward for what you believed to be a healthy life style. At first you didn't believe what you saw. There must be some mistake - you could not possibly weigh 540 lbs ! You returned the scales to the local store and extracted a full cash refund from the bewildered shopkeeper. You knew the scales must have been faulty and anyway the alternative was far too terrifying to even consider. More years pass. You have survived a stock market crash and one full term of Bill Clintons presidency, and you now feel strong enough to be able to cope with any manner of adversity. It is January 1997, and you do what you had sworn never to do again - you purchase a new set of scales and weigh yourself. Later that day the doctor tells you not to worry - he assures you that you are in pretty good shape and that 1150 lbs is a reasonable weight for someone of your height.

One of the fundamental problems these days is that economic measurement is nearly always carried out using units which are constantly varying, whether these units be dollars or any other national currency. This often leads to a complete distortion of the facts. For example, others on this forum ( Donald, Aurophile, BB Fisher ) have pointed out that the stock market may have been higher in 1966 than it is today if you use a constant unit of measurement such as gold. Another example is the supposed US trade deficit with Japan. Measuring this imbalance in terms of quantity of goods, as opposed to quantity of dollars, paints a totally different picture.

Regards, Milhouse

Who Cares?
(Fri Aug 01 1997 06:24)
Flame on!

So. Japan is finally flaming on. Cool.

Will Hashimoto survive re-entry?
Will U.S. bonds burst in flame when Japan, Inc. hits the atmosphere?

I heard somebody say.... BURN, BABY, BURN!!!!

1 + 1 always equals 2. Sometimes it takes awhile, though.

George Cole
(Fri Aug 01 1997 06:34)
Foreign stock markets soft this morning; dollar strong.

DA; RE: home prices. The Realtor's median sales price data tend to overstate housing inflation when the market is strong. During such periods the median price generally rises sharply because of both higher costs and the fact that people tend to buy more expensive homes in good times. So the median quality and size are rising. Thai said, the official government statistics almost certainly understate housing inflation, but not by as much as you imply.

I dare say that very few people who go the supermarket every week buy the "inflation is dead" mantra being preached so loudly now.

Puetz; I couldn't disagree more strongly with RJ, but he has as much right to be here as anyone else. If you don't like what he has to say, do not read his posts.

GOLDFINGER: I am as bullish as anybody on gold longer-term, but I find it hard to imagine we are due for a quick melt-up. I do think the primary trend is changing from bear to bull, and we will see the $400 line in the sand taken out decisively. But probably not until 1998 when all will know that the great paper bull is over NEVER TO RETURN. I hope you are correct, but the odds seem small to me barring some unimaginable catastrophe.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Aug 01 1997 06:49)
Friday morning @ the charts
JGKJAL ( I hope I'm pronouncing that right ) : If you don't mind me chiming in on your earlier thought, a close above 344 would be somewhat portentious indeed. The current breakdown in gold below the roughly 340 level has taken price under the long-term support line connecting the 85 and 93 bottoms. This could be a "hook" - the more and more prevalent ploy of dealers and some market participants to take assets below "recognized" support levels and trendlines, etc. So many people are technical analysts or chart followers these days, that there are all kinds of ways to get cheap stock out of them, especially with the more obscure NASDAQ issues. Anyhow, the "old support" becomes "new resistance" until proven otherwise. So that 340 level becomes somewhat of a tough ceiling above gold, not just as a short term phenomenon, but longterm as well. There is currently room on the weekly & daily charts for a nearby plunge to 307 - 310. A rally ABOVE 344 would take the gold price out of the rather narrow down channel it has been in since early '96. More importantly, though, it would pop it back above the longterm support since 85 and that might indicate momentum for this weakness is dissipating rapidly. By the way, current daily price chart pattern VERY reminiscent of the '85 bottom. Hope I havemn't confused anyone by combining short and longterm factors. I myself have too much to handle in other areas of my life these days to be in the futures market ( which I love, but it takes a full time participation and dedication ) . However, I still stand by the VERY long term approach of steadily accumulating bullion coins. Simple, quiet, and no need for daily angst. Dont dollar cost average stocks. Dollar cost average gold. Gold shares are also at a level where proceeds from sales of other kinds of shares should find their way into them as well. The angle of acceleration of this stock market simply cannot continue much longer, yet gold has always run for at least a few months before a market top. This situation is historically impressive by any measurement.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 07:16)
MILHOUSE: Your 6:24 is a wonderful analogy. Not just because it supports my point of view but because it is the kind of message that an ordinary citizen can understand. Did you read Barron's last week? There was an economist who was supporting deflation as an outcome. I could not tell that by reading his evidence, I only knew it because he said it in plain English at the end.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 07:26)
MIKE SHELLER: In Turjghjik the accent is ALWAYS on the second "j". I thought everyone knew that.

Senator Blutarsky
(Fri Aug 01 1997 07:30)
What's all this FLATION sh**?! Is gold cheap or ain't it!?

(Fri Aug 01 1997 07:31)
SEC Warning Investors not ready
Donald, any idea as to what's going on?
Time Magazine - We're ready for a disaster, article
Reuters- SEC Warning Investors not ready
Rubin - We still want to see a strong dollar ( Yen 118+, German Mark 184+ Asian currencies devaluations 5-25% ) ?
Greenspan - Dec'96/March/April '97 - Markets irrational --July - everything is humming
Hashimoto - sell bonds buy gold
China - trade surplus widening - want concessions ( Taiwan? )
Asia economies - debt defaults growing
Brazil - Central bank chief & aide replaced
Australia - selling gold, and making outrageous comments of gold losing its monetary role
Republicans & Democrats ( agree? ) on budget
Dow 8100+
"Bears" more vociferous at Kitco - 'short' gold?

(Fri Aug 01 1997 07:44)
Electronic glitch?
Electronic glitch sends Tokyo stocks tumbling

(Fri Aug 01 1997 07:48)
NOMERCY: Yes. I read all that stuff too and wonder when it will happen. The problem is that we are in a mania. It is a form of collective mental illness. In crowd psychology people do not think rationally. They look at their neighbor who lives next door, he is buying, everybody at the office is buying, its all over the TV, the business section, often the front page of the newspaper. They are compelled to go along with the crowd. Its not easy for me, and I suspect for most of us at the Kitco site, to be the oddballs who don't get the New Era stuff. We all wonder if it is us who are wrong and they are right. History says it will end in a disaster. Not just for the United States but for the entire world. After it is over for them it could be bad for those of us who are the survivors. They will suspect that we are some sort of a conspiracy who made it happen. If we had been on gold all along things wouldn't have been able to get this far out of whack. Hold on tight.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 07:48)
China envoy in HK told London stop meddling
I guess they think everybody is meddling...

(Fri Aug 01 1997 07:56)
Yahoo shows Russia stocks down over 99%. Truth or typo??

(Fri Aug 01 1997 08:01)
Mornin Blutarsky....Yeah,I'd say it's cheap,but is the Dow??...The Dow had its best month EVER in July and is now up 27.5% for the year...One half hour to the employment report!

(Fri Aug 01 1997 08:02)
Brazil falls to 17th place in "Most Corrupt Country" rankings.
Two bids received for Argentina Postal Service ( scroll down for story )

(Fri Aug 01 1997 08:17)
Joke of the Morning
Good morning all. It is in fact Friday and that is good news indeed. Good morning Ted--special D for you. Here's my paltry offering for the morning. I may have posted it before but if I have I have forgotten and I hope you have too.

This man was painting the church one Saturday to get it nice
and spiffy for services on Sunday. He had two sides of the
church done when he realized that he didn't have quite enough
paint to finish. Since he was many miles from where he could
buy more paint and he was running out of time, he decided to
thin the paint down to have enough to finish the job. After
finishing the third wall, he realized he had to thin the paint
even more to make it stretch. He finally finished and stood
back to admire his work when it started to rain. He watched
in dismay while the paint ran down the windows and exposed
the old color on the last two walls he had painted. The pastor
came outside to see what was going on and saw the look of
disappointment on the man's face. The man confessed what
he had done to make the paint last.

The pastor, wanting to ease the man's burden, said, "Then
repaint, and thin no more."

(Fri Aug 01 1997 08:18)
Check out the market snapshot comments at DBC before they change the page. IT IS WORTH READING!

(Fri Aug 01 1997 08:30)
Tort: Top of the mornin to ya...and good joke!....Mornin Panda!..and now for the report we've all been waiting for....Latest consenus est. for the number of jobs created is 190,000 jobs ( employment report ) and the real ( ? ) number of jobs created is 316,000 jobs...WOW! much bigger than expected and watch out bond bulls!

(Fri Aug 01 1997 08:36)
@the scene
Senator Blutarsky -- Yes, as usual, gold is cheap. As usual, that doesn't mean that it can't or won't get a bit cheaper. That also doesn't mean that it will. A few think it'll get cheaper. A few don't. Most don't know. I'll only say that I believe it is much much closer to a bottom than any kind of top!

(Fri Aug 01 1997 08:37)
Weekly hours declined....and pay per hour also declined so not as bad as at first glance....Long Bond up 8 ticks....Up is down!...most of the gains were in the service sector and not manufacturing...Talkin heads sayin this is a "new era"...LB up 6 ticks....the trend is my friend!..
Whoops,Long bond down 11 ticks....

(Fri Aug 01 1997 08:40)
EBN Gold+Silver dropped within minutes of employment report being released....S+P futures down 3.80...

Senator Blutarsky
(Fri Aug 01 1997 08:53)

TED--Good morning. Point well taken about the stock market. It is my guess that gold investments will outperform the Dow for the remainder of the century. BTW did you ever get one of them coin detectors?

(Fri Aug 01 1997 08:55)
Donald - just read the Barrons article on deflation at your prompting. The 2 things which struck me as I was reading it were :

- this guy seems to spend a lot of time gazing at charts and very little time trying to understand the reasons behind the inter-related movements in inflation rates, stock prices and bond yields during different periods. This may be doing him an injustice, but he doesn't seem to understand why everything suddenly changed in the 1970s and he also appears unaware of the true meanings of the terms "inflation" and "deflation"

- he considers Alan Greenspan to be all powerful, with our economic future totally dependant on Greenspan's ability to successfully "land" the economy

I'm often very unimpressed by the articles in Barrons as they seldom deal thoughtfully with the real issues and often contain inaccuracies or half truths. Although I don't agree with the conclusions drawn by yourself and Steve Puetz regarding a deflationary future, your arguments as put forward on this forum contain infinitely more sense than anything I've read in Barrons.

Later, Milhouse

(Fri Aug 01 1997 09:04)
Senator: Nope,didn't get a metal detector yet but I'm gettin closer to buying one....Could be a VOLATILE day and the markets are really jumping around so far this mornin....Glad I'm in stox as well as Gold!...the trend is my far!...Sunny with a CALM seabreeze today but why the hell couldn't it have been calm yesterday when I almost went under..
glub...glub....S+P futures up .15...

(Fri Aug 01 1997 09:08)
@It's early folks
Comex report: Gold up .90; Silver down 3 cents; and Platinum up 3.50...

(Fri Aug 01 1997 09:21)
Good morning TED! The stock bull chugs on! I wonder, when will the economy run out of people to employ??? I thought the six basis point jump in bonds was cute this morning. Clearly, the expectation is that inflation is dead and stocks will go up because interest rates are going down. I wonder when the surprise of lower earnings will rear its ugly head?

(Fri Aug 01 1997 09:25)
@Contrary opinion!
Employees are getting paid more! Most are getting stock/ stock options. As was pointed out in this forum, people are receiving stock in lieu of cash. What most are doing with these 'bonus checks', seems to be ( from what I've seen ) cashing them in as soon as they get them! At least that what I see in the High Tech industry...

(Fri Aug 01 1997 09:26)
Any opinions on Oil. Does no inflation mean oil will stay steady?

(Fri Aug 01 1997 09:31)
gkfagjqejt/[h51gad, to rkw[topoutr ogiodjt[r owjgopktqet
Y2K problem;

here's another one. In the dirivitives market, all calculations are made by computers using an asummed implied volitility. these assumed volitilities will be grossly incorrect when data errors start entering any of the multiple parties that are in the out in cyber space.

Dirivitives are so invasive these days that even "paper" that doesn't rate the respect of a dirivitive is considered less risky than a dirivitive.

In the year 1900 a US dollar bill was a dirivitive; it was a dirivitive of IOU. Today, it's not even that. What does this mean for those who plan on going into cash for safety?

(Fri Aug 01 1997 09:44)
MoreGold -- The oil stocks fate is tied to the Dows' fate. Unless, something spectacular happens to the price of oil. As for the price of crude itself... Political ramafications aside ( ! ) , it is a commodity and commodities are out of favor for the moment. However, if the turmoil in the MidEast escalates beyond what we have seen in the last few days, all bets are off. We now have Mid Easterners being accused of trying to bomb the New York subway. It's all, only a matter of time, or is it timing?

George cole
(Fri Aug 01 1997 09:52)
all news is good news
Global stock markets just love the surging dollar. Markets assume a higher dollar will stimulate foreign economies without boosting inflation. At home, the surging greenback is sucking more and more foreign capital into our hugely bloated financial markets. A perfect world for the paperhangers! But when global markets stop surging on dollar strength, watch out below.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 10:08)
@NAPM report
NAPM report came in 58.6 with the preliminary est. @ 56....and inflation index higher than expected too...dow turned around from + to down 41..That was quick!

(Fri Aug 01 1997 10:12)
Dow now down 64....thanks to NAPM report!

(Fri Aug 01 1997 10:15)
@Is Dow Panicked?
Falling Down like a rock!

Where are the Buy on the DIPS..?

(Fri Aug 01 1997 10:17)
It's early my friend....DOW down 101....Whoa Nelly....

(Fri Aug 01 1997 10:19)

(Fri Aug 01 1997 10:21)
NAPM report is driven everything down...XAU now down .67 and Long Bond down a full point...It's still a beautiful day on the ocean though...DOW down 107...

(Fri Aug 01 1997 10:24)
@the scene
Goldfinger -- If you wouldn't mind toooooomuch, would you turn your CAPS off when you post! I have two choices when you post with ALL CAPS ( SHOUTING ) . That is to either skip your post or to get out of my chair and stand WAY back to read it.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 10:26)
In light of SILVERs surge in price, its relevant to read Silver Stocks, there aint too many. Reviews Pan Am Silver, Silver Standard, Intl Avino, United Kino & Sunshine, others::

Curious - exasper
(Fri Aug 01 1997 10:34)
gklfdgaslgj @ 09:31 -
Let me help you out here:
dirivitive = derivative
volitility = volatility
asummed = assumed ( you got 1 out of 2 here )
gklfdgaslgj = gkfldgsalgj ( at least spell your own name correctly ! ) ( : ) )

(Fri Aug 01 1997 10:41)
all that glitters
eldorado, see no more caps. I apologize, did not realize it was annoying.

Front (David)
(Fri Aug 01 1997 10:50)
Goldfinger, ALL

All: I've done searches to see if there were any notes sent my way and am seeming to find a greater amount of "front month" etcs. and it's getting annoying and time wasting. In order to stop the drudgery, I'm changing my handle to "DAVID" That's it...done

Goldfinger: What are you going to invest in for the next 7 years till 2005 comes along? Or are you a buy and hold type of investor?


(Fri Aug 01 1997 10:54)
bw- I share your concern about scandals in government. I get fustrated at the apparant lack of concern, both from the general public and from Kitcoites. Why should anyone believe anything coming out of a government press release? The White House found details of ( Mr. Woo's? ) visits the day after testimony on him ended, just sitting in a box,no less, like some billing records I know of. I'm more concerned at the willingness of eveyone to laugh this method of disclosure off than I am of the records themselves. Fred Thompson, like many before him, complain that the White House is not acting in good faith. What do they expect? Not many people provide criminal evidence against themselves in good faith! It seems to me that there is ( another ) flaw in our democracy - the majority rules- even if it invovles illegalities. The majority in this case supports the Boy President- God help us all.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 10:58)
CNBC analyst celebrity predicts a sharp decline in stocks within next 60 days - although he is bullish longer-term. See INGER LETTER FORECAST. Must RELOAD Gold Digest page:

(Fri Aug 01 1997 11:07)
Welcome to our forum I mean David!...Off ta the local sawmill ta get some lumber fer the new deck...

Question for Sheller
(Fri Aug 01 1997 11:21)
Do you know of an astrologer Richard Nolle? He actually predicted a downturn in equities around Aug. 1st ( or Aug. 17th ) ?

(Fri Aug 01 1997 11:25)
@the scene
Goldfinger -- Thanks. Much appreciated.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 11:31)
all that glitters
David, The time is by 2005 could be alot sooner than later. Upside outways downside in all respect in the near term and long. Real estate is my #1 investment for now till 1999. All hard assets will do wonderfully going into the next mellennium whether it be land, antiques, oil you name it and it will make money.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 11:35)
D.A.- thanks for the silver info, now if we could get ARZ up off the floor.

Tally Ho

Does anyone know how to decipher the news article on Crystallex?????
What the hell did they say???

George Cole
(Fri Aug 01 1997 11:43)
Dow off 58. October gold off 50 cents, XAU down 0.4%.

North American gold stocks still acting very well in the face of soft bullion. But SA gold stocks not keeping up. JSE gold index still very weak.

Until the JSE starts to act considerably better, there will be no upside breakout in gold. A bull market in gold just can't happen without strong SA participation. But when the JSE starts to follow the North Americans higher with conviction the gold bull will either be underway or just around the corner.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 11:54)
Please note, I found the rash comment by Silent Majority implying that RJ should be investigated by the authorities one of the most digusting and asinine things I have ever read on Kitco. Especially as the obvious answer is in your own next statement, "this is a discussion group". And so it is, is RJ sending you a BILL or what? Many times RJ has stated that his opinions/views are just that. And just for the record, I dislike posters who use different handles to post venomous attacks. For a joke in good fun I suppose it is OK but otherwise it is just plain cowardly.
In my opinion, which is not meant as marketing advice, and is admittedly worth only its price, an apology for that rash statement is required.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 12:00)
Boy, I step out for a while and the next thing you know... we're limit up in PA!

(Fri Aug 01 1997 12:01)
The Silent Majority post I was commenting on was from 13:34 yesterday 7-31 and I should not have used quotes around discussion group as that was the sense of the next statement and not a quote of it.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 12:09)
TED: Good Morning, at least here it is, and thanks for the comment.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 12:12)
The Forum is Better For It
PUETZ: I rarely take heated exception to any post, even Hepcat's, for if it is not directed at me, I simply do not read it. But I do find your recent post "on the Kitco balance" extremely offensive. The reason is it clearly has the intended goal of shutting off debate and to encourage posts only by those who adhere to your beliefs, to which you apparently are a prisoner. The rewarding aspect of this forum is that so many parties come with different approaches to the market. Mike Sheller with astrology, Aurophile with the long term wave, Donald with a gold/stock ratio, Milhouse on the role of money, BB Fisher with his charts, RJ with a disciplined philosophical approach, D.A. with a disciplined programed approach, George based on experience, Ted as a practical observer, Glenn from the view of a trader, yours on deflation, and many others who I do not mention by oversight but by space limitations. Although I do not agree with all of their views, including yours, this does not mean I do not respect them and have not gained valuable knowledge that has not benefited me in the market as well as having a better understanding of the world about me. It is for the reader to ferret out what to believe or not to believe and not what is to decided for him by the messiahs among us.

If there was such a sure thing as gold going substantially higher as you insist, gold simply would not be at the price it is. Whether you like it or not, RJ, NotaGoldbug, Hepcat and other shorts, for whatever reason, have been correctly calling the direction of price. And you, as well as myself, have been dead wrong. And if I had the knowledge which I learned from them earlier, I may have saved some losses which I sustained in this decline.

When I first came on to this site, it was much as you now apparently desire. Anyone who advocated taking a short position was critized "by the silent majority" as a fool and deemed a pariah. And as a result, it was destructive to the participants since it only reinforced their own viewpoints, even though as it turned out were decidedly wrong. And many were uncomfortable posting, including myself, for although I was long on the market I do not share the goldbug creed of evil conspiracy, armageddon, and distrust of government bordering on paranoia.

Now there is a better balance of viewpoints and this forum is the better for it. It is because I would dislike to see it revert back to its former standard that I am making this posting even though it is distasteful for me to do so and it is redundant of others. Furthermore, importantly, I wish to make clear I am not attacking you personally - but only the statements you have made and what they imply.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 12:19)
adjusted mutual fund charts
All: Finally, historical mutual fund charts are available where adjustments are made for distributions. Don't know when it began but it is a service long overdue ( and free ) . If interested, go to

and key in any mutual fund symbol. Stock charts are also provided.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 12:22)
Go RSA!!
George Cole - I decided long ago to invest in RSA stocks rather than those in N.America, as the correlation between the NA mining stocks and the general market seemed way too high. I concluded they could get severely hit if the general market tanked. Of course I got bit by the other snake, the fact that RSA stocks are more affected by falling gold price.

I have, of course, noticed the lack of response of the RSA stocks to the rallies in gold. I totally agree that until these start to move, no upward trend in gold is confirmed. This tends to support RJ's views, at least for the short term.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 12:25)
Brazil Stocks down 4.16%

(Fri Aug 01 1997 12:28)
Well, it seems as though reality is intruding in to the market. If the long bond continued its descent, would we have wound up with the scenario of short rates at, or higher than long rates? Or would this have forced short rates lower? A question not worth pondering at the moment. It seems as though RR got what he wanted, a stronger Dollar. Now, let's see if that's what he really wanted! Remember, be careful for what you wish, you may get it! :- ) )

So, when do the exporters in this country start screaming? When do the Europeans and Asians start making noises about 'importing' inflation from the U.S.? When will the masses recognize the role of GOLD? When will the masses recognize that stocks don't do well during inflationary times? When will the bubble spring a leak too big to be patched over by the 'crash protection team'? So many questions, so little time.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 12:33)
FWIW...skip it if you are unsuspecting...or a sheep driven to the slaughter...
Puetz 21:53 - Have you ever written a post and 'sent' it to the group and then after you read it a few times ( having a chance to 'savor' the response and ponder your thoughts ) wish that you had NOT sent it? I have...and I probably do it daily. Well, I am still in shock that a 'published' person of your caliber actually wrote 21:53. Three paragraphs that change a persons perception of another...
My answer to the first paragraph is YES...but that is a philisophical question and this is a gold forum.
I was going to go on about your second and third paragraph but, as RJ had stated, it speaks volumes and you have had ample time to reflect.
I will continue to read your very informative and valuable posts regardless. Thanks in advance. more thing...You are Assuming quite a bit and making LARGE speculations to the 'unsuspecting sheep' that gold will rise to make all who 'believe' Rich. Please don't 'lie' to me and don't tell me any 'truths' either.

Speed 23:17 - Correct...buyer beware...I, for one, will not follow ANYONE off a cliff unless I have tested the parachute myself!

Gunrunner 15:46 - Thanks. And I think that was Maslow's hierarchy of self-actualization. No? anyway, I assume if I need to purchase a firearm that I can ask you. If you need questions about eyeglass spectacles please direct questions my way

D.A. - all bets are OFF ( figuratively speaking of course ) on DM. Those German buggers should get control of the spiral...the trend is your friend...i guess. Still w/w though.

DJ 18:04 - The crowd was going to let you figure it out on your own ( see...this is not a cruel bunch after all ) .

Platinum - 435.00 ( PLV7 ) go baby...GO!

EB - AWAY!!!$$$ :- ) )

Mike Sheller
(Fri Aug 01 1997 12:51)
@the future
Sorry, I don't know the astrologer Richard Nolle, or anything about him. DAVID: If one believes gold is going into the thousands of dollars in the early part of the next century ( as I confess I do ) then buying it now IS the thing to do, even if one has to "buy and hold." It would be like buying the Dow or S&P at the first shot in the Gulf War. Not too bad a play, I'd say. Sure, keep some powder dry for in and out and intermediate trading, etc, etc. Gotta have some "diversity" in the life. But a chunk of dough in bullion or some gold shares NOW would prove to be very prescient and wise indeed if such extreme assumptions were to come true. So it does make sense, for those who believe in a fresh wave up for gold in the next few years, to lay in some now and over the next several months, rather than forego the big bucks and start chasing it at 600, or 895, or 1500. The point with gold is that it is a marvelous play only at certain junctures. The price action of the last 20 years in the metal has clearly demonstrated that for both bulls AND bears in gold. The math is really quite simple, too. In 1972 $42 dollar gold went to 850 in eight years. What was that? 20 times?! It don't take many multiples of 300 to get a conservative price for gold in the thousands, in just a few years.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 13:06)
So, what do you think? Based on Europe's close, NY Spot gold should close
at 321. Today. 8/1/97

Who Cares?
(Fri Aug 01 1997 13:21)

Hey, I *know* I was supposed to do a knee-jerk on this, but what
the hell, I will anyway. : )

Vieserre - "goldbug creed of..."

"evil conspiracy" - _Waco: Rules of Engagement_. Do a search. - visit it,
and compare it to published debt numbers. Then,
do an in-depth exploration and discover when
the numbers went bogus - 1987. Coincidence?

Then, do more in-depth searching and discover
how the debt is now distributed into T-bills,
notes, and bonds, and wonder why noone said
anything. : )

Then visit, and
ponder today's latest revelation of yet
another Clinton/Commerce department sell-out
to the Chinese, and then wonder, LOUDLY, why
none of this is on ABC, CBS, or NBC.

Do I need to mention Gulf War syndrome?

"Armaggedon" - Armaggedon isn't necesary. All that's necessary
is for the SAME PERCENTAGE of cash that went into
gold in 1982, go into gold today. I would be quite

Who Cares?
(Fri Aug 01 1997 13:23)

That's Sorry, I type "software"
too much. : )

(Fri Aug 01 1997 13:29)
Vieserre: ( @12:12 ) Bravo ! One of the fairest and most statesmanlike posts it has been my pleasure to read on this forum.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 13:43)
@montly xau
Monthly XAU w/bollinger bands courtesy, mr. Ron Jett,:

(Fri Aug 01 1997 13:45)
Next time "Duh Bears" get it around here for expressing their opinions lets all remember not only the Puetz post but also Nick's work for providing a clear context for it.

In the meantime enough revelations in my view for quite a while.

The TSE is closed on Monday.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 13:47)
@ Get Ready, Get Set,....
XAU's nose back at the 98 point line at 97.96

(Fri Aug 01 1997 13:54)
@ The Start:
And their off and running. : )

(Fri Aug 01 1997 14:03)
@ The Call:
Platinum way out in front, follwed by palladium, xau,hui,and lagging far behind the Dow Dog and Treasury Notes, Bills and Bonds. : )

(Fri Aug 01 1997 14:12)
@ Heading Towards the Comex Turn:
Palladium at the limit by 6. XAU and HUI fading a tad. The Dow doing a Silky Sullivan on us. Way back there. Hope it doesn't close like Silky.

George Cole
(Fri Aug 01 1997 14:15)
Although off a few bucks in recent days, bullion still acting very well considering the dollar's strength. And the North American gold stocks continue to act very nicely!. Now if only the JSE would join in.

VIESERRE; Agree with the substance of your post, but not with its vehemence.

I find it interesting that the bears have become much more numerous and aggressive now that bullion is in the dumps, the bad news is out, and everybody "knows" it is going lower. There does come a point where all the bad news and potential bad news has been discounted.

It is my feeling that market reaction to news tells us more about where gold and gold stocks are going than any guru, whether bull or bear. This has been uniformly bad since the bear began 18 months ago, but has improved vastly in recent weeks.

Mike Sheller: You are absolutely correct that gold is only a good investment ( as opposed to a trade ) on rare occasions. Common stocks generally are much better investments. That said, we now appear to at one of those rare points in financial history where gold has the potential to vastly outperform over the next few years.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 14:17)
Something to Think About
The XAU has not gone down with gold and it is now not going down with the DOW. And gold, for the first time in days appears to be firm at the close.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 14:23)
@ The Close:
Comex close coming up. Any bets on a strong close?

(Fri Aug 01 1997 14:30)
@the scene
Byron -- Only in the P metals.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 14:34)
@ I Don't Want To Wait"
Eldorado: Does this mean I have to wait until next week? I want it all now!!! : )

(Fri Aug 01 1997 14:37)
@the scene
Byron -- ( 1 ) Yup, and ( 2 ) don't we all!

(Fri Aug 01 1997 14:41)
@ I'm Out Of Here:
Well, if everything fails, go to lunch. Back later.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 14:52)
@....How you shorts doing ?
Not too much volatility out there in gold. Is it getting hot in here or is it the weather ?


(Fri Aug 01 1997 14:54)
GEORGE COLE: Re your 14:15 That is the point I have been making with the D/G Ratio, that gold will outperform the Dow once we have confirmation that we are on the downside of the spike. All should note that my theory would be valid with gold at lower prices.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 14:54)
Vieserre @ 12:12. Excellent comments. When I first started reading Kitco forum a year ago I almost jumped into more gold stocks based on bullish opinions. Luckily for me the few bears who posted caused me to pause and not take action. Dr. Doom was finally run off.

I want to see all opinions. Will skip the Hepcat type since obviously a waste of time and irritation.

George Cole
(Fri Aug 01 1997 14:59)
Byron: A valid XAU breakout should occur on high volume. I would be suspicious of low volume breakouts. Still think we will get such a breakout this month. But it probably is not imminent considering poor action of JSE and bullion's refusal ( so far ) to follow XAU higher.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 14:59)
@... RJ, put your handle on the line.
RJ: I lose my handle if gold drops below $313 this month otherwise you lose your handle. Deal ?

(Fri Aug 01 1997 15:12)
Just a feeling

Found that I spent more time reading opinions that various posters have about each other, than what I came here too grasp in the first place.
Formerly, I read every post, now I skip through many.
Problem is that spending time at the cockfights detracts from reading a lot of the good info and news.
To all who spend their time providing infomation -much appreciation

(Fri Aug 01 1997 15:15)
@why cant gold be like platinum?
Will the day ever come that we will see Gold move like Platinum current is???? I'm tired of waiting!

(Fri Aug 01 1997 15:18)
Granted that we are in the summer doldrums, but I think much thought will be given to stocks this weekend by their owners. Magellan fund reported net outflows again. The Dow on a five minute chart looks like descending triangle. Although in the last few minutes, it seems to be trying to recover somewhat. It will be interesting to see if there is a last minute 'rescue' of the Dow. Bond action was something! Up 15.9 basis points in one day! Gee, if we get anymore good news, it just might kill us all! :- ) )

(Fri Aug 01 1997 15:20)
@ But What About Newmont:
George: Do you believe, looking at the chart, that Newmont has broken out. I need to do a little more exact work, but eyeballing the daily chart it looks as it has. Plan to check out the daily and weekly charts on the majors this weekend. On Newmont draw lines on previous highs and low on both the weekly and daily charts. Notice any breakouts??

(Fri Aug 01 1997 15:24)
Poorman -- The 'inflation' reality has to sink in! Why do you think Rubin whats a strong Dollar? So we can buy foreign goods cheap. Foreign countries devalue with respect to the Dollar. Then they can market their goods here in the U.S. Two problems though. They must accept the inflation inherent in the devaluation of their currency and we must accept the fact that our ( U.S. ) goods are too expensive for foreigners to buy. Thus we export our inflation and get a recession in the U.S. export sector. Such a deal!

(Fri Aug 01 1997 15:25)
(@nice day in the neighborhood)
nomercy: good observations in your 07:31 post. Keep up the good work.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 15:27)
@ The Public Library:
Panda: Believe, starting today, Europe essential shuts down for the month of August. Could put a damper on things, but I also remember times when Rubin made some of his moves when the NY boys went to the beach for the holidays.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 15:28)
Looks like the begining of a Dow rescue in progress. Stay tuned.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 15:30)
Rebuttal to Vieserre 12:12
Very nice post @12:12. A landmark. Since it is a landmark, it requires some response.

( 1 ) You say "If I had the knowledge" learned from the bears, I would have saved some money. What knowledge? Nobody has enough knowledge to predict the price of gold, a point I made recently. What knowledge have you garnered from the bears ( or others ) that would have caused you to invest better? Sir, we know in part, and we prophesy in part, but everybody's guessing in the short term ( and you obviously mean short term ) , _especially_ in gold.

( 2 ) You got "a better understanding of the world about me" from those with diverse viewpoints. Yes, emphatically yes. Agreed. Ditto.

( 3 ) "I do not share the goldbug creed of evil conspiracy, armageddon, and distrust of government bordering on paranoia." Now please, Father Vieserre, isn't that a bit harsh, particularly when coming on the heels of your kind and gracious words for the astrologers, chartists, and tea leaf readers amongst us ( all of whom I view with utmost fondness and appreciation for their well-intended contributions, by the way ) ?

( 4 ) "Furthermore, importantly, I wish to make clear I am not attacking you personally - but only the statements you have made and what they imply. " Refreshing and right on. In short, NAYP ( not attacking you personally ) . A non-vitriol, skunk-free zone.

( 5 ) You imply those long on gold have experienced "destruction" as a result of this recent retrenchment, suggesting that a more balanced forum might have spared them. Frankly, aren't many in this for a much longer term, or as a hedge, and in either case not terribly disappointed or surprised by such reversals as we have had? And given the enormous number of variables, how can information gleaned here be credited directly with good fortune in the market? Does anyone really make significant short-term trades based on information gathered here? If so, I stand corrected.

( 6 ) Final point. I listen to the Baltimore Orioles. I like the announcer to "attempt" to call the game impartially, but when Ripken swats one off the fence, I like to think I hear a touch of heartfelt glee in his voice that is not present when a hated Yankee gets lucky. Admittedly, not all listeners agree. Similarly, on this forum, I think that there is a certain subtle camaraderie amongst those who, while looking for honest insights and unbiased information, hold unashamedly a fondness for precious metals as substance, saving, and symbol. I personally believe that _most_ of what is perceived as disparagement of the hated goldbears is offered in a playful and teasing spirit. Certainly we view these sorry, shortsighted creatures with a mixture of pity and affection! But I for one welcome them wholeheartedly into our midst.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 15:32)
@ The Weekend:
Panda: don't want to cause any undue worry over the weekend for the folks.... Hmmm, I wonder how close to 98 the XAU will close today. Got to keep the tension in the air.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 15:34)
Byron -- If anyone causes a Dollar problem now, it will look an awful lot like 1987 before the crack-up. Remember, interest rates on the long bond soared and there was a 'Dollar/DM problem'. If the Bonds tank, stocks will get hurt. If the dollar tanks, or even drops some, we get 'inflation', stocks get hurt again. If the Dollar gets too strong, what will the overseas Central Bankers do?? Stocks??? How will our export industries respond? So many questions, so little time. :- ) )

(Fri Aug 01 1997 15:36)
Rescue call received about the Dow. Rescue in progress...

(Fri Aug 01 1997 15:36)
@ Moving In On The Close:
Buy. Buy. By. Looks at those the Dow is going to do a Silky Sullivan on us.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 15:43)
@ Poor Mark:
Panda: Looking at the DBC quote the DM still getting creamed by the Dollar. When will the German Bear growl?

(Fri Aug 01 1997 15:44)
Todays action in the Long Bond...

(Fri Aug 01 1997 15:49)
@ $13.00 Here, $13.00 There:
Platinum for Oct ONLY up $13.00. ..Dow zeroing on zero.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 15:50)
TED...What is this about you trying to kill yer fool self ????? Be careful!!!!! I think we need to rent a boat when I get there.....

(Fri Aug 01 1997 15:54)
Byron -- History never repeats exactly. I just used '87 as an example. Who is to say WHOM will be the first to say,"Enough is enough!" One thing is for sure, something will break here. This 'alternate' trade policy using devaluations in place of tariffs will have as disastrous, if not more so, consequences than trade tariffs alone. 'They' are screwing with everyones 'money' here. This is what leads me to believe in the rise of gold. Hence my long term bullish outlook on the metals and commodities.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 15:55)
@...a fundamentalists spin on gold price and a note "for" RJ
Price is a function of demand and supply. The price of gold is a function of the demand for jewellry, industrial composites, and a contra-currency to the US dollar. The supply of gold is a function of newly refined product - that is a function of cost and expected producer risk/return, CB and fund bullion inventories, and manufactured composites - jewellry and other industrial products that contain gold - that are available to be recycled.

The market has discounted CB inventory sales and the demand/supply gap. Recycling of gold composites back to marketable supply is not material and often included in reputable forecasts of demand/supply gaps.

Whether the prices jumps and falls back and drops from current levels is not related to news already discounted in the price but to the shear power and authority of speculative investors who can manage the price of gold in the absence of equally financially superior opponents.

Yes Virginia, there really is no magic to price action when you think of the historic short position that weighs heavily on the current market. Many long investors are underwater and have been caught by the 15% decline in gold price over the past year. Had we known that external events, such as the RBA "announcement" ( that they had successfully sold $2 B worth of gold in the previous six months ) would be exploited by the short forces to bring the metal down $20 we would have certainly joined the party. ( We would have loved to know what we know now over one year ago ) .

The point is that there is nothing wrong with making money selling short and equally nothing wrong to holding a position if one accepts that fundamental economics ( gold demand/supply and cost of production ) will eventually turn in favour of the long position.

It is certainly unacceptable to berate anyone for holding a winning position who explains how they arrived at their good fortune through reflective evaluation of information. It is equally disrespectful for anyone to claim that those who are currently underwater are somehow related to lunatics and have taken up the cause of being long gold as the eleventh commandment.

I distinctly remember who started throwing the stones and it annoys me to read posts from people whose opinions I otherwise respect and who are now not being fair in assessing the source and the nature of the mud slinging that had occurred on this fine list of late.

The fact is RJ had started his short posturing by suggesting that those of us who "hold" long positions in gold are somehow not worthy to comment on this list due to our inability to be on the rigth side of the current trend. Where was RJ when the price was $365 ? Did RJ give us the benefit of his wisdom at that time ? No. He, like other recent converts to the short side, wants to do us a favour by reminding us of our infantile approach to the gold market.

The evidence suggests that traders in the long-run become losers ( read most of the Wizard series by Swaggard or re-read DA's 2 cents ) while dollar-cost averagers over the long term are winners. Some of us - by nature, like to speculate and some of us win some and lose some and those of us who are really 'smart' make a lot of money and retire from speculative investment and join the a group of financially successfull coupons and dividends clippers while enjoying the finer things in life.

The point is this. RJ, if your are winning playing the gold market short 'good for you'. Don't call me a lunatic or fool for holding my long position in gold stks. Dig ? Thank you.


(Fri Aug 01 1997 16:00)
BYRON....What do you mean when you say "the DOW is trying to do a Silky Sullivan on us" ???

Richard Burke
(Fri Aug 01 1997 16:01)
Byron: Regarding Newmont, Deaner this morning on his site indicated his technicals show that Newmont has indeed broken out. On the other hand, you want to be careful of Newmont in the long term. The fundamentals are scary. Someone posted on this in the last six weeks. I can not remember the details. If that someone is watching, please post again.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 16:04)
Joy and Pleasure @ Thoughtful Positions
Two ( 2 ) cents worth !
*Success* Is A Journey
*Not* A Destination

(Fri Aug 01 1997 16:10)
If this doesn't sound like a market turning point, I don't know what does. The longs ( myself included ) are hyper-sensitive to the bear comments. The longs have been the losers in the current bear market. The shorts have been the winners. It seems that the longs are complaining about the bears haughty behavior. Well, this to shall pass one day. One question, isn't haughty behavior in the markets usually indicative of a top? Relax, everybody. RJ is not your enemy. He is just a trader. Just like the rest of us here. Whether it's for five days or five years, we are all traders. Unfortunatly, big egos tend to go with trading ( especially if you're winning! ) , and at times we ALL suffer this malody.

The Dow was recued,... today...


(Fri Aug 01 1997 16:12)
@ But...
Richard Burke: Seen some posting recently indicating that Newmont is one of the lowest gold producers around. Might have even seen a post about that today. Also like to judge a stock more by the charts ( and its behavior on the charts ) than the fundamentals. A breakout on the WEEKLY charts, in my opinion, carries much weight especially at the TIME.... XAU closed at 98.10. At the reistence area. Philly option people want to keep us in suspense for one more weekend. : )

(Fri Aug 01 1997 16:15)
@ Horseing Around:
nailz: Silky Sullivan was a race horse famous for coming from FAR, FAR behind and winning horse races. This was about 30 years ago, ( best guess )

(Fri Aug 01 1997 16:21)
To Bob: I appreciated your 15:55 post and read it with great interest.
One of your statement prompts me to offer an opinion.
With reference to yours ( We all love to know a year ago, what we know
at present.... )
The price of gold or any other speculative commodity depends on the
number of people who take a position at any particular time. If you or
any additional number of people had advance knowledge of the course
or price development, you and all the other people would have been
induced to take a position, thereby affecting the price at that time.
In other words, the price would have been different and not the same
as it is registerd, listed or shown a year later.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 16:31)
China- PLA 70th Anniversary
US Treasury bondholders and major exporter to the US are "telling the world" their military build up and modernization is not for expansion purposes. "They" don't want us to misinterpret.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 16:31)
@...I hear ya...
Walt: Well then what if "only" us good folks on Kitco would have known the price trend last year then "we" all would have made money ... ;- )


(Fri Aug 01 1997 16:32)
@ And One More Point:
Richard Burke: Also, right now I see Newmont as a leader and I am very interested in what the leader is doing. Don't own any of Newmont. ( Wonder is Georg Soros still does? ) And Newmont's breakout is just one of various technical indicators I am looking at. The Weekly Gold Futures Stocastics for August Gold has given me a strong positive signal also.... But time will tell which way we are going. Right now I am leaning on the up side. ...Well, out of here for today. Will check back tomorrow.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 16:35)
Gold needs USDA !!
USDA to buy 20 Mln lbs turkey to bolster prices

(Fri Aug 01 1997 16:37)
PANDA: Re your comment "something is going to break here". Mabye it did today. The bond market if off 67 ticks, it is a larger market than stocks and has a more direct impact on gold ( inflation scare ) . A lot of money was lost today, ie previous profits evaporated. If bonds continue down, stocks will follow. Another point. Japan was down 500+ last night. That must have had some impact on the action in bonds today. Randall Forsyth in Barron's may have some insights tomorrow.

George Cole
(Fri Aug 01 1997 16:40)
Dow Rebound
BOB; Amen to your 15:55 post! This is a forum for intellectual discussion, not name calling, personal attacks, or kicking people when they are down. All traders and investors make mistakes . But the smart ones learn from their errors. Boastful, arrogant remarks from anyone -- bull or bear -- rub me the wrong way.

The Dow was rescued again during the last hour. My observation has been that whenever the Dow sells off sharply early in the day and then makes up most or all of the loss during the last hour, a hum dinger of a rally is sure to follow. So don't be surprised if the Dow surges 200-300 points next week. When the end comes for real, it most likely will involve a crashing -- not a surging -- dollar.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 17:27)
The LBMA Puzzle and the Dachshund
JACK: Thanks for the earlier comment, sorry I have not gotten back to you sooner on the LBMA. There is a lot I do not understand about the gold markets but the LBMA is biggest puzzle. To consider that over 930t of gold - equivalent to over 10 billion dollars and the entire reserves of the European Union Central Banks - is traded "each day" is mind boggling. Yet so little is said about this "behemoth" as to who the traders are and the purpose of the trades. And why the COMEX should be able to wag its tail since it is a Dachshund in comparison, as C-Max put it, is indeed perplexing.

In an attempt to make sense of this, I view the gold market as having several basic types of supply/demand components. The first is what everyone reads about: producer supply and scrap on one side, and fabrication demand on the other. A second type rises from CB's adding to or reducing gold reserves. And this together with the first is often massaged and misleadingly reported to support the spin that the media or commentator desires to make with respect to gold supply and demand. And depending on the spin, one could believe that there is a huge deficit, a modest amount or a surplus. The third type which I believe is most important is investment supply and demand on which I have not seen much published except for related speculative buying and selling on the futures exchange. I view gold hedging in the same manner as naked speculative buying and selling. It may temporarily affect price when being implemented or unwound, but it does not affect price based on physical supply since it neither adds to or reduces total supply.

Trading directed to each of the above is evidenced both on the COMEX and the OTC market, but most trading appears to take place on the OTC. Some of the LBMA trading may relate to OTC forward contracts being implemented by producers and speculators both on the long and short side, not unlike undertaken at the COMEX. However, major players may prefer the OTC as there is no particular contract month to be concerned with, there is anonymity, and one can contract directly with a party of his choice, among other reasons. Then there simply may be other traders who buy and sell on the LBMA spot market with little interest or impact on price - which may include producers, bullion houses, banks, and dealers. The producer has little impact on price since it sells its gold at the prevailing spot price. ( It may however affect price by hedge timing, dependent on its expectation of future price. ) The commerical dealer for the fabrication trade similarly will buy at prevailing spot in an amount that will satisfy fabrication demand at that price. Banks, bullion houses, dealers and the like may simply not care about price as they may be trading risk free by passing the risk on to others. Thus a lot of trading can occur on the LBMA without regard to price.

However, a trader that would be expected to trade on the LBMA, as well as on the COMEX, and who should affect price is the private investor or hoarder of gold. He does not have to sell or buy, and he will only do so at price which is based on his view of gold as a performing asset. And, it is this Investor who is believed to affect the margin, which usually determines price of most commodities. I have no knowledge of the amount of gold held by such investors, but my premise is that since 2/3 of the global gold supply is in private hands, it would seem reasonable that a sizeable portion is held as private investment stock. And, these holders may affect price even though they may only trade among themselves.

As to why the COMEX seemingly has such a large influence on price when considering its relative size to the LBMA, I suppose it is not unlike many other markets which are influenced by the futures markets. A price change, owing to the size and nature of trading would seem to be more easily accomplished on the futures market as opposed to the OTC market. But it may also be because a lot of the trading on the LBMA is done independent of price as above reasoned. In any event, a price change induced by the futures market should hold only if traders on the LBMA accept it, and that is based on the above cumulative trading considerations and others.

Since IMO the private investor is the sine qua non of price, if gold is to significantly increase in price, ( other than for technical short covering ) it is going to be because of conditions that make gold attractive as an investment other than for fabrication demand. Although fabrication demand is important, there is far too much gold to satisfy this demand alone for decades. But once gold becomes more attractive as an investment for other reasons such as inflation, currency revaluation and the like, it will rise in price accordingly. In addition such oher reasons are also likely to discourage CB selling and producer hedging. IMO, since the investment community buys or sells gold based on such economical or financial expectations, axiomatically, it is why gold has responded reasonably well over the years as a leading economical or financial indicator

The above collage is based primarily on supposition, many parts of which could be in error. Your comments are welcomed, as well as others on this forum who are more knowledgible.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 17:38)
At the Market
GEORGE COLE: As I posted many times before, we seem to be continually in sync with views and approach to the market. Although the XAU looks encouraging, it has been primarily a few majors carrying the load, particularly NEM. And I also have been observing the heaviness of the RSAs as well as the Australians. Although negative reaction to unfavorable news has been indeed positive lately, positive reaction to favorable news is still absent such as to today's economic numbers which offered the market an excuse for a decent rally. I am still looking for that spark which will ignite the kindling. Still, the XAU is at this level for a reason, and all things considered, there are hopeful signs beginning to appear that suggest at least a near term bottom. But there are simply not enough to give me comfort. As to "Vehemence", I prefer "Conviction". I take no joy nor certainly not pride in such posts, and I more than hesitated to make it, but at times matters simply need to be stated.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 17:38)
Warren Buffet FYI;
Coca-Cola Korea co. has been losing its market share to competitors, including Pepsi-Cola
Korea Co., according to beverage sources. Coca-Cola's market share, which stood at
75.4 percent in March, fell to 69.1 percent in April, 66.2 percent in May and 63.4 percent
in June, down 12 percentage points in just three months.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 17:43)
Thank You
JAN, TIM: Thank you. WHO CARES: Thank you for replying, I will take a look at that URL and consider it with your comments as time permits.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 18:00)
With the plunge in the U.S. long-bond today, the BOJ lost more than $4 BILLION. As a prelude to this concert the Nikkei plummeted more than 500 points. Will tomorrow's Rising Sun herald Nippon's financial sunset?

(Fri Aug 01 1997 18:09)
South Africa Mines in Red -Worst Qtr ever
No X-mas cards are planned for Costello & "short sellers"

(Fri Aug 01 1997 18:10)
Pakistan Central Bank challenges Pakistan Government over authority to order potential bankruptcy rescue plan.

KARACHI ( August 1 ) : The State Bank of Pakistan has reminded
the banks not take any action that is inconsistent with the policies,
regulations and directives issued by it even if ordered by a governmental
body or quasi-governmental agency.
The occasion for reminding the banks of Section 46B of the State
Bank of Pakistan ( Amendment ) Act 1997 arose as the Water and Power
Development Authority ( Wapda ) attempted to obtain Rs 4 billion from the
banking system to pay off a loan falling due at end July.
Wapda's demand were pushed forth by the Ministry of Water and
Power with full support of the Ministry of Finance as Wapda is to repay a
Rs 2.6 billion loan to the Government.
The central bank had to intervene prohibiting the banks to oblige
Wapda as the National Credit Plan duly approved by the National
Economic Council has earmarked only Rs 2.5 billion in additional credit in
Fy 1997-98 to five autonomous bodies, namely, Wapda, PTC, NFC,
OGDC & PTV. Further, the Government has made a commitment to the
International Monetary Fund that the amount of Rs 2.5 billion earmarked
in additional credit to the five PSES will be phased out over four quarters
i.e. Rs 625 million per quarter.
As such, Wapda can only obtain Rs 625 million, otherwise the
other four PSES will be left dry and will not be able to get any additional
overdraft from the banking system.
It is learnt that Wapda is unwilling to a roll over of $100 million loan
from Society Generale at 325 basis points over LIBOR i.e. at 9.5 percent
interest, and is wanting to raise the money locally at 18 percent. The
reason, it is said, could be the fear of an exchange parity loss.
The SBP Circular to the banks says:
"Your kind attention is invited to Section 46B recently added to the
State Bank of Pakistan Act, 1956 through the State Bank of Pakistan
( Amendment ) Act, 1997. It is reproduced for your information and record
as under:-
"46B. Inconsistent directives not be issued.- No governmental or
quasi governmental body or agency shall issue any directive, directly or
indirectly, to any banking company or any other financial institution
regulated by the Bank which is inconsistent with the policies, regulations
and directives issued by the Bank pursuant to this Act, the Banking
Companies Ordinance, 1962 ( LVII of 1962 ) or any other law in force".
2. All banking companies are advised that they have to ensure that
they do not take any action that is inconsistent with the policies, regulations
and directives issued by the State Bank of Pakistan".

(Fri Aug 01 1997 18:23)
In Response
2. Thanks for the compliment and for responding. This may surprise you but in the main I agree with you. As to ( 1 ) no disagreement except I said "I may have saved money", the point is by having such knowledge, I may have been able to make a better informed decision. ( 3 ) Touche'
( : ) , I knew that comment would touch a spot on some, and it certainly was not intended to offend anyone. We are all like those blind men around the elephant who gather knowledge and make opinions based on what one comes in contact with. And although my personal opinion is based on where I have touched the elephant, it does not mean that I am necessarily right or others are wrong who have different experience and by listening to their views, I may learn more than what I have previously contacted. ( 4 ) I do not know what to make of your remarks. Clearly, Peutz or anyone else should be able to state a view without reflecting on his character as a person, and it was not my intent to do otherwise. ( 5 ) Hopefully, by having better understanding of the markets, we can make better decisions, but I agree that this does not necessarily make it so. ( 6 ) Again, I certainly do not wish to convey the view that I am against gold bugs. "Some of my best friends are goldbugs" ( : ) . There is a certain quality about gold that distinguishes it from all other commodities, including all other precious metals. This quality somehow arouses passion in people and they relate to gold as more than just a metal but a symbol of their beliefs and convictions. And I include myself in this category. Certainly, if this were a forum on soybeans, copper, or oil - we would not nearly have the discussion and responses that gold generates.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 18:51)
Nomercy: Good post re China's peaceful intentions. I have to think of what Hitler said when Neville gave him Czechoslovokia. And then Neville's statement. You know what happened.

George Cole
(Fri Aug 01 1997 19:03)
Does anyone recall the lag in early 1993 between the bull market in gold stocks and the bull market in gold? Bullion did not start following the stocks for a number of weeks if memory serves. A good chance we are seeing the early stage of a repeat performance right now.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 19:12)
Dow/Gold Ratio 25.21 Down side of the spike?

(Fri Aug 01 1997 19:18)
HEY VRONSKY.....Next time you do a commercial would you do the link to the last of July GOLDBUG's comments ???? The one where he updates the silver small caps....I can't find it....

(Fri Aug 01 1997 19:23)
Philippine Central Bank acts to halt Dollar speculation.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 19:25)
GEORGE COLE: According to my charts, the XAU touched 66+ in April of 92, hit its low of about 65 about 7 months later and bullion hit its low in March of 93. This market is giving similar signals.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 19:30)
goldbug's silver picks
nailz: Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 10:26

(Fri Aug 01 1997 19:31)
Thats it.
Good evening and have a good week-end where ever you are.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 19:39)
Four Philippine Senators, high police officials and others linked to drug trade.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 19:40)
Vieserre: You have been a busy boy today with many well written posts,especially your 12:12....years ago when I did some day trading in gold stocks on a day such as this with the Dow plunging,the gold stocks automatically seemed to go up...It was a no-brainer!...Today at the Dow's low point ( down 119 ) gold stocks were stuck in neutral let alone soaring and I'm wondering if maybe this is a "new era" after all...With the evolution of instant communication around the world has gold to a degree become obsolete as a vehicle of "safe haven"....The markets certainly react differently to news than they did in the "good old days",when it seemed much easier to predict what a market would do when faced with a specific event or news item...So much seems to be trend related and for that reason I remain committed to the stock market,especially since I feel I'm in essential industries such as international oil,Telco's, and electric+ gas utilities...Being in DRIP's I feel I'm in a no-lose situationsince if "the market" goes down I naturally buy more shares and the only way I lose is if companies such as XON,SPC,PNY..ect..ect..cut or eliminate their dividends and the odds are in my favor that will not happen...I can't predict anything with certainty and I can only go with the odds and at this point in time the upside potential for gold shares is much greater than the downside risk...IMHO that is!...If only I were smart enough to predict earthquakes on a PARTICULAR day or the price of Gold on a particular day inthe future...Those predictions are laughable IMHO....I'm rambling my friend and still in some kind of state of shock after my experience yesterday on the "high seas"....That trip to the mountains sounds right on!...

(Fri Aug 01 1997 19:48)
George Cole ( 16:40 ) : "Arrogant, boastful & etc.". I could not agree more. If the intent of the writer is to serve his own ego rather than to disseminate information and opinion, quality of content becomes of secondary importance and difficult to discern, in the glare of a well burnished burnished halo.

Personal villification of those holding polar opinions is equally distasteful. Those who earn their bread and beans by trading, would be in a frightful position, had they adopted the standard goldbug credo. ie, gold can only go up! In the end, there is much learn from opposing opinion. It should be encouraged. Not shouted down. To those who feel uncomfortable when someone calls their "baby" ugly; perhaps a cold shower and a warm beer is in order. Failing that, restraint at the keyboard will suffice.

There is also much to learn here, in terms of quality of communication and personal expression. Feedback is an essential element of the learning process if it is processed in a sober fashion. If a writer, frequently, finds himself at the receiving end of a ration of crap, perhaps it is not the message but the perceived intent of the messenger. ......... The only difference between 'now' and 'then' is that the playground is larger and a bit more complex but the technique is about the same: Cut the other guy a little slack. ...... hopefully before you bust 'im in the chops.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 19:55)

(Fri Aug 01 1997 19:56)
I'm wondering
George Cole
May I ask you why you post here? Do you do it for personal gain? Do you do it to share your knowledge? Why do you take the time and effort to bring the myriad of details to our attention? I am grateful that you do, for I have learned much from your posts, but why do you do it? I am asking the same question of myself tonight. The best answer I can come up with is, that in formulating an explanation of market conditions, it forces me to think through the factors that go into my opinions. When confronted with my own writings, I am the harshest critic if what I read is unsupported. This process of double checking positions and beliefs held is valuable to me and has helped solidify some of my more nebulous beliefs.

We all learn by reading this forum, but why do we post? I read this sight for a year before my first comments in early June because I was swept up in the incredible excitement of the PA / PL short squeeze and, after 12 hour days of pressure trading, I needed to make some sense of it. I must admit to some conceit in some of my more whimsical writings, as they furthered nobodys knowledge and are more, to paraphrase a colleague, the mental equivalent of passing wind.

Is it my remarks you characterize as boastful and arrogant? This is a surprise when I simply report what is. My manner can be abrasive, and has the tendency to turn thus when confronted by those who deliberately distort my statements. From the first post I made here in early June, I have expressed a bearish view on gold. There have been many direct challenges to my remarks to which I have responded to in great detail. You are likewise predisposed to a detailed oriented approach to the market. Our styles differ greatly in that you seem to trade on technical, while I treat the technical aspects of at least equal importance to the psychology of the market. How people feel about gold is an enormous factor in whether they will buy it or not. There are some here who would buy gold at any price, and others that would buy when it makes sense to do so.

I am interested to hear why you take the time and effort to post your views.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 19:56)
Any BMI data feed users in the house??? Today was the first day in 2 years that I had no data feed all day. Anyone else with the same problem? Of course the lines were swamped. Something akin to brokerage house lines on some fond future day.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 20:02)
Price is more than supply / demand

There are three things cited by every trader I respect, and almost all I dont, for the recent run down in gold. 1: Soaring equities 2: Overall strong economy, with low interest rates and low inflation. 3: CB bank sales and the threat of more to come.

When I read a claim that the market has discounted CB sales, I can only wonder where those who hold this idea get there information. Perhaps the sudden worldwide drop in gold last month immediately following the Assuie announcement was shear coincidence. Perhaps the universal reports of fear of more central bank sale were all mistakes of communication. To say the market has discounted one its primary fears, is to ignore what is happening all around us.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 20:05)
This is over
I give up. I am at a complete loss at how you arrive at words such as, berate, lunatic, eleventh commandment, and fool, when describing anything I have written here. You seem to read words, redefine, reword, and hold forth something entirely unrecognizable from the original.

You have twisted my take on those who have been consistently mistaken as to market direction and future course, into the throwing of stones to those that hold long positions. I find it sad that some, who having made a mistake, refuse to acknowledge it to themselves, and instead invent conspiracies and collusions to justify there mistakes. I am reminded of hepcats strange way of twisting the general bad feeling toward him into persecution for his beliefs. Your thought process appears to be the same. I believe you make up your own reality, as evidenced by your incredible distortions of anything I have ever said. I once invited you to find anything I have ever written to support your attacks. Forget it, as I will soon forget you.

I find it impossible to afford you any respect, and I have no time for those who would distort reality.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 20:09)
George Cole

Take a look at the VSE it's rallying now. Forget about the xau

(Fri Aug 01 1997 20:29)
we have differences in time horizons
Gentlemen, this exchange of bears versus bulls, short versus long, is
good ( though here and there its becoming too personal ) . I am into
"long" thing, be it a stock or gold issu. I appreciate traders
expressing their short view of market because that gives me a better
understanding what is really going on. No, I dont like it, but it is
a part of this market. I think that the friction between two camps is
due to differences in time horizons when we express a view "gold will
go up/down". When shorts say "gold has no way to go but down" it may
mean in the next couple of weeks/months but long bulls think in terms of
months/years and hear "gold will stay down for the next couple of years.
Sure we have a disagreement because our baselines are different.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 20:35)
Friends, Romans, Countrymen

I took some time today and reread all I have posted in the last couple weeks and am at a loss to account for the distortions made of my remarks. I have asked some who made these distortions to cite where in my words have I expressed what they claim. I couldnt find it. I did remark that some appear to ignore what is going on in these markets and, in the face of steadily declining prices, deny that gold is in trouble. They appear to have taken deep emotion offense at this position.

I apologize to all here for the amount of space that this controversy is occupying. I too know the frustration of having to wade through much that is of no interest to arrive at the meat. Some think that this is a waste of space, some think that this is a defining moment of this group. I think that I will take "Who Cares" advice when he wrote that I was taking this too seriously. I now see a deeper significance in his handle, and I think his words are wise. I once heard a statement that made no sense to me at the time. I was young and the apparent self contradiction confused me. I cant credit the source, but these words have stayed with me over the decades. As I grow wiser, and catch myself getting swept away in the BS, the words come back to me, and they make sense:

Live your life so that you will never be ashamed or embarrassed of anything they print about you on the front page of the newspaper. Even if its untrue.

To those that have offered encouragement to me in these pages, thanks. To the many who have e-mailed me privately with their support, I will reply in kind this weekend. For the two or three that are angry with me, I will pursue this no longer. For the almost two dozen that have supported me, publicly and privately, you appear to welcome a meeting of diverse opinions. I will try to tone down some of my rhetoric, as well as remember why Im here. Ill also try to put some of the fun back in. I too am tired of these squllions of squabbles.

Mooney - Perhaps you can find the appropriate words in your delightful bag-o-words.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 20:49)
WE HAVE BEEN HAD - Is Former Pres. Nixon Turning in his Grave?
The U.S. Dollar has been over-valued for the last 26 years - since 1971. What is causing this overvaluation must be something extraordinary, but what can it be? Tlaga Report:

(Fri Aug 01 1997 20:52)
I/B/E/S guest on Louie's show predicts a 80,000 Dow in twenty years!?

(Fri Aug 01 1997 20:59)
It is time to stop the accusations, finger pointing, appologies and excuses. We all are adults and we are here to learn from one another. All people have different ways of delivering their opinions. Give everyone the benefit of doubt, stick to conversation about gold, learn and enjoy.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 21:01)
Your 20:02 Supply and demand
You cited 3 reasons, third being CB sales and the threat of further sales for gold's present market slump. EVERY news story which I read from Reuter, has the same intonation. More CB sales to come, yet the only country mentioned thus far is Lithuania, which is a non-factor. Can you identify which CB's are going to sell or have already sold and not announced or are you speculating? If you are speculating I believe you should admit so categorically.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 21:04)
Hello Everyone
Hello All;

I've been lurking Kitco for over a month now, and thought I'd better say "Hello," introduce myself, and thank all contributors for sharing their thoughts, their experience, and their great research links.

My interest in Gold was piqued in late '96, and I began watching spot price regularly. I am "one of those" who was looking for a test of ( approximately ) 340, then 325, then 300. My reasoning was that the largest upside potential would be realized IF AND WHEN we saw gold fall to unrealistically low levels - - - A reversal at that stage might be heavily keyed to major changes in the economy, i.e., a large hit on the equity market, a war, the onset of inflation, whatever . . . Between whatever drove gold that low in the first place, and the probable financial chaos when that set of circumstances rightfully collapsed and then corrected itself, a raging bull market for gold might ensue - - - And I wanted to be part of it.

If events had caused gold to begin a recovery at 340, my opinion is that the upswing would have been anemic at best. Things were not "wild enough" at that juncture. I feel the same way about our present levels - - - Too many bulls still hanging in there, no immediate sign of economic chaos, a truly wishy-washy set of circumstances. A reversal in gold's many-year downtrend at this point would probably be as exciting as the downtrend itself. It must get lower to get exciting . . .

I am looking for ( not necessarily expecting, just watching for ) a penetration of the current support clear down to 300, with perhaps a brief pause at 314 or so. If 300 is reached, I would next anticipate a bottom perhaps $15-20 lower. If this scenario doesn't play out, I don't believe that there would be enough upside volatility to fuel a meteoric rise. That doesn't imply that there would not be good profits to be made from Gold, it just wouldn't be nearly as dramaitic a performance as my watched-for scenario!

In the tradition of investment purists, I have have put my money where my mouth is, buying some cheap out-of-the-money June '98 calls. This is a small speculation, insurance that in case Gold makes its *move* while I'm with the family at Disneyworld I won't totally miss out. If the future favorably unfolds, I will add position again in the form of futures options should the scenario appear to be playing out.

That's it, I've bared my soul, thanks to ALL posters, I enjoy your posts immensely. Oldhand, I laughed hard and forwarded your "Men from Mars" post to several friends - - - Great Stuff!

Best Regards, Niner

P.S. Too many bulls still posting at Kitco. When we shake out the last of you, Gold might really start to move!

(Fri Aug 01 1997 21:04)
"We all can learn, even from fools! For they show us what we should not be."

(Fri Aug 01 1997 21:05)
I will survive
With todays action I've come to the conclusion that the US bull sotck market is going to keep going like the Energizer Bunny. There is just no other viable alternative to park investment money in the minds of the "Average Joe." DOW up or down, it does'nt matter to Joe, his 401k contribution will still be funelled in monday morning. There is no other reason for the markets to rally back after todays reports except for the faith that the money will keep coming. Gold is in serious need of a public relations makeover.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 21:18)
China - US - Nuclear materials
A letter to Mr Clinton from 62 members of
Congress objected to certification because of **fears
materials sold to China might get into the wrong

(Fri Aug 01 1997 21:21)
Philippine Rumors:

Meanwhile, Citibank, N.A., one of the biggest foreign
exchange players in the country, said in its daily market
commentary on its Reuters screen: "Rumors are abound
that the peso might experience renewed pressure given the
probable move of the ( Bangko Sentral ) to float the local
currency for a second time. This gave the market the
signal to bid anew the greenback."

An economist of a local commercial bank who requested
anonymity said she also heard the rumor, which fed
speculations the Bangko Sentral had been slowly
increasing its offer for the dollar to "soften the impact" of
another de facto devaluation.

"The rumor is that the peso might depreciate again by as
much as P35 ( against the dollar ) in three days, so the
central bank has been selling ( at a higher rate ) in
anticipation of this," the economist said.

Bangko Sentral officials and Citibank treasurer and
spokesperson Patrick Dewilde were not available for
comment as of 6:30 last night.

At the PDS, the Bangko Sentral's offer rate for the dollar
serves as the benchmark for the other selling rates of

Last Wednesday, the Bangko Sentral increased its offer
for the dollar to PhP29 from PhP28.50, leading the peso
to depreciate to PhP29.967 from Php29.486, previously.

The Bangko Sentral yesterday kept its offer for the dollar
at Php29 as the peso slid 3.2 centavo against the dollar to
average at Php29 from the previous Php29.967.

Foreign exchange traders said the Bangko Sentral
accounted for more than 75% of total volume turnover of
$65.9 million yesterday as the peso opened and closed at

A foreign exchange dealer of a local commercial bank said
it was possible that the Bangko Sentral could be
considering floating the peso once more, given its ongoing
negotiations with the International Monetary Fund.

David (Formerly Front)
(Fri Aug 01 1997 21:22)
to EB:

I noticed that no-one wanted to come forward the other day and let you know how to create those special characters that RJ was using. In effect, they're foreign language characters set that are used in other than english keyboards. You can access them by using a combination of the ALT key plus a number ( use the numeric keyboard number keys ) between 126 and 256. For instance :
 = ALT + 132 on the keypad
 = ALT + 133 on the keypad
Hope that helps. I guess RJ was too busy making mooney ! ( :- ) )


(Fri Aug 01 1997 21:23)
S&P warns Thailand credit rating ripe for downgrading

(Fri Aug 01 1997 21:32)
David ( Formerly Front ) ( to EB: ) : Microsoft WORD has this capability.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 21:34)
George Cole:

The gold stocks mostly bottomed in late 1987, in fact on November 27th if memory serves, while gold bumped along the bottom for 3 more months in an extremely narrow range before its ascent in March 1993. Canadian golds in $CD bottomed even earlier in 1992.

I feel strongly that gold is now ready to move and that we have now seen the top in the stock market and quite probably in bonds. I know full well it is hazardous to venture such thoughts, but there it is.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 21:40)

I do not know the current numbers for Kodak but they used to be about 10% of worldwide consumption. If you want to know furthur I suggest a call to the Co. My experience with calling companies is that eventually you will find someone who will be of use. It took me a while but I found someone in the purchasing dept of one of the big auto firms that would chat about their PGM purchases. If I had to guess I'll bet that you find that they keep relatively small inventories and have no forward hedging program to guarantee supplies. If you find anything of interest please post.


I noted with some interest today that both HL, and CDE appear to be breaking out of a pretty good consolidation. Perhaps this is a sign.

My metals desk still reports that there is very little interest in silver and seemed almost disdainful of the stuff saying something about how 'it couldn't seem to get out of its own way'. I take this as very encouraging because they have a habit of getting excited at the wrong times.

There is also very little fear in the PGM markets. What is most interesting is that the backwardation really has not expanded much, and the bid/ask spreads are still around $3.00 in Pa. Last time we were at these levels the spreads were $10 and the backwardation was severe. I think what has happened is that during the last spike in the Pa the lease rates got so high, that all available metal was brought to the spot market. Since the best and most liquid lease period was in the 1 - 3 month range most of this cash metal if loaned and not sold would be coming due in this time frame. Add this to the potential delivery squeeze in the Sept. contract and the short term demand for metal might be quite extraordinary. Since it is apparent that the Russians are not delivering enough metal to cover the supply deficit something has got to give.

This leads to an interesting possibility in terms of the domino effect. Maybe over the next few days we will see the PGM's again go balistic. With silver looking somewhat healthy and gold perhaps having turned the corner maybe the entire precious metals group will go haywire. This in turn will be looked upon unkindly by the bond market which seems to have caught a bit of a chill at these rarified levels. Finally, in the year 2082 the stock market will take notice and there will be a 10% correction. Too bad we will all be dead and never see it.

Lan Man
(Fri Aug 01 1997 21:41)
Closing Bell
COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended mostly higher Friday,
as gold and silver continued to consolidate after seeing multi-year
lows last month, while platinum group metals ( PGMs ) recovered
further to set new contract highs.

"On gold and silver, I was bearish before and I'm still bearish,"
Smith Barney's Chicago based analyst Phil Tiger said. "I think gold
is going to test the $300 level and silver the $4.00 level."

"The PGMs are the only metals that are truly in a shortage as the
fact of the matter is there really isn't enough palladium to go
around if everybody decided they wanted it today, and so platinum
is entitled to have a $100 premium over gold."

Gold as usual failed to respond to the latest U.S. economic news in
which U.S. unemployment fell to 4.8 percent, its lowest level in 24
years, and June personal income rose 0.6 percent, and non-farm
payrolls rose 316,000 in July.

Palladium went limit up for the third day in a row on the Tokyo
Commodity Exchange ( TOCOM ) on Friday also, on heavy broker
shortcovering, traders said.

( Reuters 04:04 PM ET 08/01/97 ) For the full text story, see

COMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.

Aug97 325.10 326.00 323.30 324.70 +.60 414.50 314.60
Sep97 325.00 325.00 325.00 325.50 +.30 326.30 317.50
Oct97 327.60 328.00 325.30 326.80 +.30 426.50 316.80
Dec97 329.50 330.10 327.30 328.90 +.30 456.50 318.50
Feb98 331.50 331.60 330.00 331.20 +.40 424.00 322.50
Apr98 332.80 332.80 332.80 333.20 +.40 408.40 325.00
Est. Sales 35064

COMEX - 5,000 troy oz. _ cents per troy oz.
Sep97 446.00 450.00 442.00 447.00 _2.00 576.00 418.00
Dec97 451.50 456.50 448.50 453.50 _1.90 701.90 424.00
Mar98 458.00 461.00 454.00 459.90 _1.80 573.00 432.00
May98 464.00 464.50 464.00 463.90 _1.70 564.00 437.00
Jul99 494.00 494.00 494.00 493.80 _1.40 660.00 472.00
Est. Sales 25427

NYMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz
Sep97 206.60 206.60 206.60 206.60 +6.00 203.00 128.75
Dec97 198.60 198.60 198.60 198.60 +6.00 195.00 120.25
Est. Sales 791

COMEX - 50 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
Oct97 430.50 439.00 429.00 438.50 +13.00 434.00 355.50
Jan98 416.00 426.00 416.00 427.50 +15.00 424.00 360.00
Est. Sales 3740

(Fri Aug 01 1997 21:49)

(Fri Aug 01 1997 21:50)
THE DINES LETTER - August 4, 1997
Well-known Analyst cites potpourri of currency comments from world-acclaimed sources. Dines also says those blindly bullish on stocks are like the Italian proverb: He who knows nothing, doubts nothing.:

(Fri Aug 01 1997 21:54)
Lan Man:

It is articles such as these that warm my goldbug heart. Even as gold goes higher it will get no respect. This is the stuff of rallies.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 21:55)
Thanks for the response, but if their purchasing manager is like ours I have no hope! Progeny of E.Scrooge and the Beastie Boys. If I were a real devoted goldbug I'd be nice to the counting house chap and get him to ask. UGH! I can't do it! Nevertheless I will press on with this pursuit of the silver Grail, after all, I believe in the long run we're all resurrected : ) ( = eternal optimist )

(Fri Aug 01 1997 22:02)
NOMERCY, ALL: Central Bank sales. Take a few minutes and put your self in the shoes of a Central Bank Chairman ( I am sure they all wear VERY nice shoes ) Here are some of the questions you might ask yourself. Try and think of some I missed.

1. What am I going to do with the money I get?
2. What is the public going to say?
3. Is it a good time to sell, can I get a good price?
4. If I need to buy it back can I get it cheaper?
5. Suppose I sell and there is a run out of my currency?
6. Should I sell all or only part?
7. What will be the impact on exports and imports?
8. What happens if the US dollar gets in trouble later?
9. What will my other Central Banker friends in other countries think of me?
10.Will the world community still think of our country as a responsible one?

Each Central Bank will have a different set of rules to comply with. For example, Switzerland has to put it up for a popular vote. In general, it would seem to me that selling now would be unwise just based upon price alone because Australia, Belgiam, Holland etc have already cashed in. It is late in the game, I will be criticized for not selling earlier like those other countries. Selling now would be percieved as weakness. Under that theory it seems to me that Central Bank selling is less likely today. If the price increases, as many of us hope, then Central Bank selling becomes more likely at those higher prices.

There is another factor we should consider about these sales. We have seen several Asian currencies devalued in order to improve their trade positions. Some of these gold sales may have been strategically designed to devalue currencies by those countries who are embarassed to make a public devaluation. Sell the gold, weaken my reserves, and let the market do my dirty work for me.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 22:10)
DA: It appears that you and EBN have entered into a conspiracy to access my personal banking records.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 22:25)
@The end of time!
Uh, oh! EBN has all currencies at ZERO! Commodities at zero. All major stock index at 1/4.

So, ... How much worthless gold can I buy with my worthless money? Clearly, stocks have won the gold or equities question! :- ) )

Mike Sheller
(Fri Aug 01 1997 22:32)
my name is Michael...and I'm a Kitcoholic.
The air at Kitco was like the aftermath of a cooling summer storm in recent days. The expunging of one disturbing visitor allowed this forum to shine forth once again in its true lustre. Now, it seems, another form of acrimony threatens to taint the atmosphere. I cannot speak for anyone but myself in this matter. I have no bone to pick with anyone currently posting at this site. Even when I occasionally don my libertarian warpaint and do battle with our "liberal" friend WW, I hope I have made it clear that I do so with respect, fondness, and the acknowledgement that he is my peer and a colleague in the quest for a better way for the human condition. Perhaps it is indeed human nature that squabbles must needs erupt between us from time to time. Such may occur even in loving families. I have found the Kitco environment to offer a wonderfully surrogate dose, in this incredibly busy and consuming day and age for all of us, of cameraderie, debate, and a strange sort of cyber friendship. I have made valued contacts and connections through posting here that would never have happened otherwise. I have listened to voices and minds, and hearts, I would never have otherwise as well. Many have been enlightening, piercing my smugness and illuminating my ignorance just when I needed it most. Why do any of us post here? Is it solely to exchange information in an ego-less, objective quest for "reality?" And what is reality? I have spent many years searching out THAT question, and can say without equivocation that I can illustrate best the systematic understanding of what this creation is all about through astrology. To many others, this would seem a complete and farcical denial of "reality." That's OK with me. I understand because there was a time I knew nothing about these things and would have likely expressed the same disdain. Just as long ago I thought people who bought gold coins were some kind of strange anachronism. Like the old people who used to wipe their dog's asses in the street before there were even laws forcing us to clean up after them. "Disseminating information" at Kitco may also indeed consist of prediction of price and time. There is nothing wrong with that. I think people who deny that this is a valid undertaking may themselves be mired in a grey bandwith of life that mistakes consensus for reality, and mass hypnotism for truth. I am no hepcat, but I did call the top in palladium at exactly 240 well before it got there, and on July 18th gave the likely parameters for October platinum ( then 394 ) renewing its advance and reaching 435 before resistance. It got there today. I publicly called the breakout in bonds and the ensuing corollary of a continued stock market rally, even though psychologically and personally I am one of those prejudiced toward gold. I did this all with price charts and the NYSE horoscope. I ran out out of tea, so I couldn't use any leaves. I'm sorry, but that's the only way I can remain in touch with "reality." It's the only way I can predict anything with any kind of half-assed accuracy in the markets, so please forgive me for using these arcane, and unreal crutches. My point is, of course, that I am clearly no guru or advisor or all-knowing anything. I am merely a practicing astrologer, metaphysician, and chart analyst, and I make no apologies for it. I respect the rights and sensibilities of those who don't care about what I do, and those who don't feel it is valid. I respect the depth and humanity of those with whom I converse who initially cast a skeptical eye at me when I first wandered into this forum and proclaimed who I am and what I do. There are enough large souls here to make my stay worthwhile. I think all of us who are presently posting have much to offer each other, just by the sharing of who and what we are and believe. I don't care about ego or motivation, as long as nobody is obnoxious. Irracible or pithy is quite another thing. That's spice. And dissenting views from the apparent "majority" should ALWAYS be welcome in any forum. There is no charge, it's all free, and it's ONLY A CHAT, and there is no reason for vituperation. Let our occasional human irritation with one another be cause for spirited debate, but please let it be, in the end, in a brotherly fashion. I consider the intellectual and informational exchanges here to be a contributor to the quality of MY life. If nothing else it is just plain FUN and I don't have to justify one bit of it. I hope all who post here cultivate the conditions and the atmosphere that makes it so for everyone.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 22:39)
David...but I like Front better...although my bro's name is David...I confuse easily...
Thanks. I have been trying to no avail. vronsky-I was also told that Word has the capabilities...thanks as well. I still can't figure it out, but I will. I've got time. And I have a call in to Mavis Beacon.


(Fri Aug 01 1997 22:52)
nomercy-your 21:01 post
Pretty demanding of RJ arn't you?. And how
about YOU? Have YOU ever speculated here and
not so qualified it? Someday you might regret
the name you have given yourself.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 23:12)
Mike Sheller ( 22:32 ) Beautifully said my friend!...Good night ALL...

(Fri Aug 01 1997 23:15)
EB: Don't despair, I spent most of one day this week trying to find a turkish symbol set for an attorney. Hold down the alt key and while holding it down, type 164 on the numeric keypad. Let go of the alt key now. 8 ) The result is the spanish . In Word, from the taskbar, choose Insert, Symbol and then pick your symbol from the chart and click on the Insert button. Choose different fonts for different symbol sets. Sorry I missed the first round of this thread.

Old Fogie 2
(Fri Aug 01 1997 23:19)
Old Fogies: Have a good sail!

(Fri Aug 01 1997 23:43)

I have zero firsthand knowledge of impending CB gold sales. Very few people on earth do until it is too late and the barn has burned down. I heard the rumblings from Belgium and The Netherlands a couple months ago. As we all know, the Aussie sales had been carried out over the last six months. The panic response to a fait accompli had very little to do with quantities already absorbed into the market. It is that they were willing to sell at all that got people spooked. This entire bear market started in January 1996 when gold was last above 400, when Belgium stepped in and sold 207 metric tons. Its been all downhill from there. Belgium will sell more this year, but that is well known.

I have listed my suspect of further sales numerous times, I am watching the Germans and the Swiss. Why did the Swiss lower the 40% gold currency backing to 25%? What reason could they possibly have to do this? The Germans have made plenty of noise about revaluation, which was promptly squashed. I believe they too wee jump into the fray. I can give no definite time frame.

One of the traders at my companie is a man, who for more that 20 years, was an international gold trader for a major bank. He joined our company a year ago and was the first I knew to get extremely bearish on gold. He predicted further CB sales, and was not surprised at the Aussie sale. He also called for palladium to make a move above 230 when it was still limping around in the 130s. In my last serious conversation with him, he smiled and said gold is going to $180. This was not meant to be an actual prediction but an expression of complete lack of faith in the gold market. This from a man who traded gold in the millions of ounces internationally. I have come to trust his perceptions,and his track record in the last year has been impressive. I have my own sources on the trading floors, but he is the only source I know what has an inside and intimate working knowledge of international gold trading.

So, I hope this clears up what I "know" and what "I suspect". When I add it all together, and then look at the market, I can only see what is. Gold is in serious trouble short term, by this I mean early 1998 or after more CB sales. I believe we will see less that $300 gold. I postulated 2 months ago that we would see palladium higher than gold this year. Doesnt sound so farfetched now, does it.

Oh yeah, when gold is finished going down, it will then go up. I will ride that train with the same enthusiasm with which I ride the bearish express.

David ( Formerly Front )

I did respond to EB about the little marks above the letters with characteristic snippiness. My Response was : "Demi God -  ant telln." I guess I have to admit now that  really dont know how to do t.  also had no idea how to spell Komitet Gosudarstvenno Bezopasnosti.  copied t from MS Bookshelf ( a trusted resource ) and pasted t nto my document. The only way  can do t now s to paste that damn lttle "" n each and every place  need t. A lot of trouble to go through  admt.  have been found out! EB, forgive me, for  am a Newporter!

Mike Sheller

You continue to delight! You are the only person here who would, out of almost 2000 words, find the silliest. I didnt even know MS Word knew how to spell goulash. Say high to Pepi. Ive heard he isssa goooood booy. Perhaps your mochcin laces were some sort of doggy floss. Never mind.

(Fri Aug 01 1997 23:48)
Thank-you Semi-Demi-Platinum-God! I post to Boast!
From your unperiphrastic-bombastiloquent-circumlocution to your HIGHLY informative posts I have enjoyed your participation ( even when you called me a numbskull ) . You do not ( as you have stated ) need to justify any statements you have made to this group. Many can and will continue to benefit from your 14yr experience in the METALS ONLY market. ( To ALL who are feeling ill will: pull your heads out! RJ has traded ONLY metals for many years. That is what he DOES ) . To me, that means you are a survivor and someone to be reckoned with in your field ( period ) . I am glad that you continue to post. It would be a shame to see you go AWAY forever, for we can continue to learn from ALL who post. I even learn from all the numbskulls. O.K. ( that was NOT an ass-kissing session by the way ) . I save that for 'in-house'.

NOW... to BOAST!! RJ - I would like to thank Myself for Carefully reading and Dissecting many of your first posts. I made a KILLING this week in PLATINUM. I have never traded platinum before and probably would have missed this move if you had not 'come aboard'. Even my broker ( who is a VERY experienced Dude and former floor trader ) has not traded PL in eons. I closed out a few positions today ( for DAMN-GOOD profit ) and held a few more. I will study this weekend re. strategies on how to build more positions, for this run is NOT over. THANKS DUDE! And I did NOT do this without DOING MY HOMEWORK FIRST!

I also had a few fantastic BULL backspreads in GCQ7 that turned to sh*t as Gold took a dive. So I cut my ( $400.00inc comm ) loss and concentrated on the markets that could make me some money instead of sobbing and whining. I also benefited from your posts AND the fundamentals there too. THANK-YOU again.

I also have some long silver and I can sure use a lift in that. Someday...ho-hum. See, not all boast.

ALL..or many...RJ has stated that he is a gollbug sometimes and sometimes he is not a gold bug. For 18 months he has not used emotion to trade gold and made ( i'm assuming a great deal of money ) . You can do it too, all the while continuing to take advantage of the lower prices to purchase the physical for a 'rainy day'. Gold will rise again, as he has stated COUNTLESS times. And when it does he will be on that side of the tracks. Get over it...

AWAY...sorry for the ramble and the boast...NOT


(Fri Aug 01 1997 23:59)
George Cole: My 21:34 mind was clearly too focused on 1987 as I mistakenly referred to gold stocks bottomming then when I meant 1992. Ah, the mind plays strange tricks when it is roaring. 1987 is where the stock market is. Forgive!