Roebear @ 18:54 -- Great statement. Vieserre -- My objection to RJ's views is his short-term view of gold: One day he's bullish, the next he's bearish. Actually, RJ is entertaining. His postings are fun to read, and I laugh when I read them. But they lack any consistancy. If the market is down, he gives bearish reasons why it should have gone down. If gold rises, he says why it was correct in doing so.

Everyone feels bearish after a down day, and bullish after an up day. We don't need RJ to reiterate those reasons. RJ would be more credible if he gave the same reasons whether the market was up or down.

Thanks!

Speed- Thanks!

RJ-you knew I would have figured it out eventually...

away...to prepare for the invasion of my Limey friend...I'm breaking out the good stuff...oh my!

EB

once again for good measure...and I like Yeats

Wine comes in at the mouth
and love comes in at the eye
That's ALL we shall know for truth
before we grow old and die.

william butler yeats

Poor this and that ?Listen guys their is only one Poorboys.Mike Sheller nice short story and I see Mooney is back .This poorboy did go insane today and bought Gold .God help us all.P.S.The window is very small.

Ted re your 19:40 post
Perhaps the gold market did not soar when the market was down,119,because
there isn't much fear; stock traders have been thoroughly conditioned
to buy on dips .that being said ,of course,they've been right...

Sigh....

Hope that China doesn't try these methods to often, or elsewhere:
http://nt.excite.com/reuters/970801/17.INTERNATIONAL-TIBET.html
And we trade with these monsters.

here's a little story re: the Japanese and their problems. It's a read
http://starbulletin.com/today/editorial/index.html

POORBOYS: The window IS small, but please don't fall out. EB: It's not easy being a giant, especially with all those folks wanting to climb on yer shoulders. Sometimes you just have to brush them... away!

Vronsky @ 20:49 "We Have Been Had" BY: J.N. Tlaga. No mention of the
Canadian dollar eh! Consider the state of affairs, we in Canada have had
to live ( regarding USofA ) with, many more years then 1971.

Government and Business in Canada: By Hugh G.J. Aitken
From: The Development of Canadian Capitalism By: Douglas McCalla

Anyone attempting to interpret Canadian experience to a predominantly
American audience faces problems. These arise not only from prevailing
ignorance in the United States of even the most salient features of
Canadian history - an ignorance which it is now conventional to deplore
but which grows no less abysmal as the years go by - but also because
anyone reared on a diet of American history approaches Canadian material
with a preconditioned palate. The categories with which he approaches the
data are already set. Implicitly or explicitly, the United States is
taken as norm.

This in itself would be limiting enough. What aggravates the situation is
that the categories taken over from United States history are usually
highly conventional and often inconsistent with the findings of recent
research. Reference, of course, to that traditional view of United States
history which depicts it as the history of a laissez-faire, free-
enterprise economy, in which the role of government, at least until the
New Deal, was essentially passive and in which government as a factor in
the process of economic development was at best neutral.

We have at least, in writing of our own country, learned caution. But
when we compare our own history with the history of other countries - or
with the predicaments of backward nations today --caution goes out the
window. Our implicit standard of comparison is the free enterprise model,
assumed to represent without too gross error what happened here.

OF COURSE, IT DID NOT HAPPEN HERE. The work of louis Hartz, the Handlins,
and a host of others has made that clear.

No one familiar with Canadian politics in the 1960's can question that
defense against the economic and political dominance of the United States
is today among the overriding concerns of the Canadian federal government
no matter which of the two major parties is in power.

Resistance to the threat of absorption by the United States, thrust on
the government a role approximating to strategic economic planning. The
tactics of Canadian economic development have been a matter of private
business. To find a strategy and see that it is implemented has been the
responsibility of government.

Sooooo, in 1997, Canada has been taken over by the business forces of
the USofA, the USofA citizens' at the Kitco site, warn Canadians each and
every day, of the control of the USofA government, by vested interests,
and those same interests, are in fact gaining control, and have been,
for more then the 26 years stated at the Gold-Eagle site. " We Have Been
Had".

Consider, Canada as a branch plant economy, multinational corporation, as
an institution that exercises power over social and political development
rather than, or in addition to, its role as a mobilizer of resources for
economic gain.

Decision making within multinational firms, where it is discussed at all,
is portrayed in straightforward terms. Power flows from the top down,
from head office to branch or subsidiary, augmented by centralized
controls over financial resources and communications networks.

Example: The executives of Canadian and other foreign operations of
American companies are managers, **not entrepreneurs**. They do not make
the *guiding* decisions concerning the *global* goals of the enterprise
or the allocation of *money*; they *operate* within the guidelines set
down by the general office.

Canada, is not the only country, that must use caution, dealing with
the multinationals, and International Bankers. Canada, is now accepted
as having no form of money other then the USofA dollars' second cousin.

Donald ( 22:02 ) : You wrote: "If the price increases, as many of us hope, then Central Bank selling becomes more likely at those higher prices."

It is a point well made. At the same time, it presupposes that wolves are not howling about the counting house ( Thx Roebear ) door. All in response to good and sufficient reasons to support the higher price for gold. In which case, we will all bear witness to a sudden and willful paradigm shift in the wonderful wacky world of central banking. ...... All in the realm of speculative supposition. :- )

Puetz
- I have yet to utter a bullish word for gold since I began posting here. Not one. I have been very bullish on PA / PL and occasionally on silver, but Ive been a one note singer on gold. The closest thing you would find to a bullish statement is the couple times I covered my shorts and looked for a small rally to sell it back into the dirt from whence it came. I have been remarkably consistent in my views.
I have said that I love gold, as all here do, and in the future I will be a gold bull. Perhaps you took that for a bullish statement.

Mike Sheller ( 22:32 ) : Amen. ( Respectful silence )

Calling all KITCO GURU'S, but only when you have the time and inclination. Please read, VIESERRE'S fine take on the LBMA; and -if so inclined- offer your views on this huge gold trader.

Jack -- At least it doesn't yet sound quite like Waco yet!

RJ - I have been reading this site for a couple of weeks now. I find the
banter quite entertaining and informative. I haven't read many of your posts, until today, but I can tell you are a person who has something of value to offer to others. I can also tell you are feeling unappreciated because some of the responses you are getting. I can only say that there
probably many others like myself who appreciate your efforts here and would miss out on your experience if you decided not to post.

We all must engage our filters when visting sites like these, both from the content perspective and the personal perspective.
I hope you stay on the site!

Since this might be my last post -

Vieserre: Bravo all posts - I appreciate your balance and inputs.

EB - Maslows dogs, Pavlovs hierarchyUm, vice versa? Whatever psychology aint my expertise either. Maybe Im on the wrong chat group. Hopefully I will not need glasses for a couple of years, but when I do You the Man! Parrotheads gotta stick together. ( and if you ever need a gun.. )

George Cole, Earl - I appreciate your presence at Kitco and HOPE youre right ( and Im there with you ) in the long run

Eldorado, D.A., - Thanks!

Poorman - I feel your pain

Ted - Been there, done that, got the T-shirt. Glub-glubbing doth suck and does make one see "the big picture" a little more clearly now ( Johnny Nash )

Panda - I have little ego left, only the desire to learn and hopefully profit from it.

Niner - Are you my not-so-evil-twin?

Mike Sheller - WOW!

ALL - I realize I am out of my element here at Kitco ( being only an optimist and not being a metals/financial/economic expert ) , but I think I represent good percentage of the lurkers. I seek only the knowledge to make better investment decisions ( and, I must admit, the entertainment value of those who occasionally flippantly contribute. ) But if I bore anyone by my postings, or am misinterpreted as a "whiner", etc., Ill shut up and lurk, too. As Ive said before, thanks to ALL who take the time ( and emotional fortitude ) to contribute here.

There are more bearish posts on this forum than in anytime I can remember, although I've only been lurking here since last November. We shall see if that is a contrarion signal or not. Even most of the bulls here are expecting some weakness in the coming days and weeks. The last thing anyone expects is a violent move to the upside. Mabey that's why it might just happen after a little scare to the downside to make bulls and bears alike think the trend is still down. I happen to be in the aurophile camp in thinking gold has bottomed and stocks have topped. Now that the capital gains tax cut has been passed , it won't take much "bad news" to cause some serious selling. There are MANY out there just looking for the slightest excuse to sell.

We'll all gain from different points of view so I'll definitely
agree with gunrunner's last comment and hope that RJ keeps posting.

gunrunner -- What do you mean your last posting here? You find some better place to 'cruise' or was it too addictive here?

Aurophile and Vieserre; Thanks for the info re: the lag between the 1992-93 bottoms in gold and gold stocks! Similar pattern seems to be developing now.

RJ; My attack on arrogant and boastful behavior was a general statement and not aimed at you or anyone else in particular. Now that Hepcat is gone, Kitco has reverted to its old civilized self. Although you and I often disagree, this forum would be a much less interesting and informative place without your contributions. But you do seem to have rubbed Bob the wrong way.

Mike Sheller; I recall you did predict this stock and bond rally, and I extend my heartfelt congratulations. I am no expert on astrology but have noticed that astrologers like other gurus have hot and cold streaks. They often disagree.over the correct interpretation of celestial events. Arch Crawford after running hot for awhile seems to have hit a slump.

Ted: The stock market indeed has further to run, but if you think this mania will last much longer, think again.

GVC re your last posting.
The uptrend in the stock market and the downtrend in the gold market are
both so entrenched that a breaking of both is almost unthinkable by most market participants. I'd say from various measures ,including the caution shown by this group, the bears in the stock market and the bulls
in the gold market,that we are as close to a turn, pychologically, as one can get.

RJ; thought that the decrease in SF gold backing was still subject to referendum?
If wrong about this; my inclination leads me to believe that: the Swiss are in mortal fear that EU scared europeans will send huge sums of their DM's, French Francs, Lira and etc. into SF's. Without the former 40% gold backing, the Swiss Economy may not be flooded with unwanted currencies????

GVC -- I'll only say that I'm ready and willing for any kind of move it decides to take! Sunday night/Monday might be interesting. Tuesday 'should' provide a turn. Whether it be up or down, build a bigger pile of chips for the BIG one! Will it be soon or will it be later? Will we see 300, 275, 180? Who really knows? A lot of messes can get totally out of hand at any time. But remember, we are all one big happy family, and it won't happen 'lightly'! That is why I've said in the past and maintain today that when the metals move, it'll quite likely mean it, and we'll never again see these low 'prices' that may or may not become lower! But I do see a pattern that suggests a possible near term 310 or so on the Dec contract. By that, I simply mean it SUGGESTs a posibility. No engraved stones here, and I have to see it happening for a confirmation!

gunrunner, I've got to get up for a Police Practical Combat match this morning, I shoot High Master, now do you still want to leave? We never got a chance to talk firearms! All: more Y2K and this is scary
ftp://fennel.assumption.edu/view/1997/VIEW0797.HTM

Read it while you can: Robert Minor's recent trade recommendation:
http://www.dynamictraders.com/curtrec.htm

gunrunner -- If the only people to post here were to be only absolute gurus on the metals, we would all be lurkers on an empty page! Don't be intimidated! Keep on posting as you have been! And this extends to all the 'lurkers' out there! I'm sure Bart would agree!

Vieserre: @12:12

You set out to defend balance, and in the process, demonstrated the same. At the risk of parroting another, your remarks were those of a statesman.


Miro @ "our baselines are different."

Time frames are indeed an issue. Long term investors, those who buy, hold, and dollar cost average are a different breed entirely from those who trade. I would define anyone who calls themselves a trader as short term. I love markets that give me the opportunity to day trade, but most of my trades are for several weeks to a few months. For those that buy and hold, todays gold price offers an opportunity to pick up some more at a great price. I believe there will be plenty of opportunity to buy plenty more at a lower price, this is dollar cost averaging.


Donald @ "Central Bank selling is less likely today"

This is true unless they race to be the next to sell at these prices before gold dips substantially lower. Make no mistake there is envy and avarice from those that have not yet sold, towards those that have.


Mike Sheller @ 22:32

Bravo. You have consistently offered sound opinions and seem to have always chosen the high road. You are also one of the truly valued humorists here. Search as I did, read it three times, I could find nothing so obviously embarrassing as goulash. Instead I found ,vituperation. Had to look that one up. You are definitely on the short list of contributors who are always a "must read".


Unperiphrastic-bombastiloquent-circumlocution Boasty Boy

Congratulations on the PL bucks. Glad you held some as this ride is surely not over. Sorry Shirley. I hold some more expensive silver also, and worry it will suffer under the weight of gold. Taking your losses on gold was a wise move, sure gives a sense of freedom doesnt it? Your success, like most, stems from your "homework", and your ability to see these markets for what they are. You too are on the short list. You have friends who are limeys? Remember, vino dude, moderation, in all, moderation.

For all zoze who try to beat up mah fren RJ. Stop
maintenant !!!
Even zo ah don lak heez position short zee gold/long
zee silvair, he was right by dam. Even zo ah tell heem
he heetch up zee skairts too much. He eez good as he
follow zee market, he dont try to ow you say
anticipate zee market - and peek zee bottom lak many of
us.
All of us lak zee gold, but we must admit no matter
how beautiful she eez ( and she eez ) she goes down by gar.
Ah believe zee gold she well go up, but first she
must START to go up and maybee break say a 30 day
moveeng averAGE. Even zee poor silvair she looks lak she
has done zis.
In zee defense of RJ, he has always say gold go down.
One day he will say eet well go up but he weel not
peek zee bottom -
Alors, Zee only botTOM zat rj weel be peeking at weel
be when he leeft zee skairts - am ah wrong , mah fren

Eldorado, I hate to rub your nose in your work as I contend, but the scenerio your eluding to is right up my alley. Your commentary I believe makes good sense. Keep em coming.

Where did everybody go????? Talk to me, say something "Henry"