Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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Lan Man
(Tue Aug 05 1997 00:07)
@Closing Bell
COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended higher, with the
exception of gold, as platinum futures climbed to fresh contract
highs, and palladium futures ended locked limit up for the second
day in row.

"Palladium should easily stay locked up tomorrow for the third day
in a row," RJ Futures president and NYMEX floor trader, Ralph
D'Esposito, said. The maximum expanded daily limit of $12.00 will
apply Tuesday.

"For now we would advise not to try to pick a top in these
markets," Smith Barney analyst David Rinehimer said. "We would
focus on the backwardations and lease rates as indicators of the
extent of supply tightness. "Cash platinum and palladium prices are
carrying premiums of $2.00 to $15.00 to their respective nearby
futures, while one month lease rates are reported around 30 percent
for platinum and 80 percent for palladium."

"Doubts about Russia as a reliable supplier, uncertainty over the
size of the Russian PGM stockpile, and reports of a power struggle
for control of Russian PGM exports between the Russian precious
metals export agency ( Almaz ) , the Finance Ministry, producer
Norilsk Nikel, and the central bank, should keep the supply outlook
problematic," Rinehimer said.

Meanwhile, COMEX September silver ended up 3.7 cents at $4.507 an
ounce, after fund buying, and stop order execution above $4.50,
pushed the contract to a session high at $454.00, its highest level
since July 7.

"With the constant withdrawal in COMEX silver stocks lately, it
appears there's a little more of friendly feeling toward silver
than there is toward gold," Pell Brothers COMEX floor trader Don
Tierney said. COMEX silver stocks fell a further 530,732 ounces
Friday to 169,078,681, the lowest level since the addition of the
Wilmington Trust stocks in January.

But COMEX December gold ended down 80 cents an ounce at $328.10, as
gold prices continued to consolidate following a slide to 12-year
lows in July. The CFTC Commitment of Traders data, released late
for the period ended July 29, showed funds had reduced their
net short COMEX gold positions to 56,626 contracts from a near
record 74,588 contracts two weeks earlier.

Gold prices are seen capped by the strength of the U.S. dollar
which rose to new seven year highs against the mark, new four year
highs against the Swiss franc, and a new seven year high on the
dollar's trade weighted index Monday. Using the statistical
technique of regression analysis, Smith Barney analyst Jim Collins
in Chicago concluded there is a reasonably good fit between changes
in the U.S. dollar index ( .DXY ) and changes in the price of gold.

"Gold has fallen at virtually the same time that the U.S. dollar
has registered gains against virtually all major trading partners,"
Collins said.

For the full text story, see

COMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.

Aug97 324.00 324.70 323.50 323.90 _.80 414.50 314.60
Oct97 326.00 326.70 325.50 326.00 _.80 426.50 316.80
Dec97 328.20 328.70 327.60 328.10 _.80 456.50 318.50
Feb98 330.00 330.90 330.00 330.40 _.80 424.00 322.50
Jun98 335.00 335.00 334.80 334.70 _.80 470.00 327.50
Est. Sales 30497

COMEX - 5,000 troy oz. _ cents per troy oz.
Sep97 445.50 454.00 445.50 450.70 +3.70 576.00 418.00
Dec97 451.50 460.00 451.50 457.20 +3.70 701.90 424.00
Mar98 462.50 464.00 460.50 463.60 +3.70 573.00 432.00
Est. Sales 14413

NYMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz
Sep97 215.60 215.60 215.60 u215.60 +9.00 206.60 128.75
Dec97 207.60 207.60 207.60 u207.60 +9.00 198.60 120.25
Est. Sales 231

COMEX - 50 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
Oct97 441.80 458.00 441.80 u455.20 +16.70 439.00 355.50
Jan98 434.00 447.00 434.00 u445.20 +17.70 426.00 360.00
Est. Sales 2949

(Tue Aug 05 1997 00:08)
Eldo: I have no quarrel with that argument. What is happening of course, as you imply, is that our dollars are going abroad to invest in equipment and educate others how to better compete, and our trade deficit is being supported by dollars coming back into bonds. But if that were to reverse, particularly with our lack of savings as a nation, we will be in deep manure.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 00:09)
Good Night

(Tue Aug 05 1997 00:10)
@the scene
6pak -- The bankers are and have been ONE BIG happy family! Now figure out what will make them even happier. Follow the money. Follow the power. Perhaps there is a lot to the global plantation theme.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 00:10)
@Down but not Out!
CARACAS, Aug 4 ( Reuter ) - Canada's Crystallex International Corp said Saturday's ceremony to mark the start of construction at the Las Cristinas concession in Venezuela was a "publicity stunt" and reiterated its claim to the property.

Over the weekend, top officials of Crystallex's rival Placer Dome Corp ( PDG.TO ) and the Venezuelan government put in motion a $600 million joint venture project to develop the site in southeastern Bolivar state despite a legal battle with Crystallex over rights.

"For the record, our subsidiary Inversora Mael is the only party with title to Cristinas 4 and 6, as officially registered on title records, as published in the country's Official Gazette, and as confirmed by the Supreme Court in three separate decisions," Crystallex President and CEO Marc Oppenheimer was quoted as saying in a statement released Monday in Vancouver.

The ground-breaking ceremony at the site Saturday "suggests disrespect for the court itself," Oppenheimer added.

Placer Dome President and Chief Executive John Wilson told reporters Saturday that the company was confident that its legal wrangle with Crystallex would soon be over.

Placer, which has a 70 percent stake in the project with the Venezuelan government, has estimated the Cristinas concessions could produce 450,000 ounces of gold per year for more than 14 years.
( ( -- Caracas newsroom, 582 505 2600 ) )

Lan Man
(Tue Aug 05 1997 00:14)
@In the News...
* Falconbridge ( FL.TO ) was hit by a strike that shut down almost half of its nickel production.

* Parametric Technology ( PMTC.O ) was ordered to pay an ex-executive $1.6 million after a jury found the company fired him because he was about to exercise his stock options.

* The new tax law passed by Congress last week will eliminate Americans' right to defer taxes when they sell an old home and buy a new one -- a change that will be costly to owners of high-priced homes.

* In material provided at the analysts' meeting, Asarco said its annual earnings sensititivty is $0.124 per share for each $1 per ounce change in the price of silver, $0.113 per share for each $1 per pound change in molybdenum prices, $0.16 per share for each $0.01 per pound change in copper prices, $0.043 per share for earch $0.01 per pound change in lead and $0.016 per share for each $0.01 per pound change in zinc prices.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 00:23)
@the scene
Vieserre -- I would say that "manure" would be putting it very 'lightly'. A deep pit of quicksand might more be descriptive of the situation. Large enough to hold ALL of us. What I'd like to do is try to figure out which set of countries will fare worse; the net importers or the net exporters. Perhaps they'll all fare equally bad. That exercise should be entertaining for awhile!

(Tue Aug 05 1997 00:26)
all that glitters
Dow Jones and NYSE headed for smash. Market calls for holiday close to subdue panic selling. Next newapaper headlines. Read all about it. Not to far away in the distant future.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 00:35)
Lets all laugh together

ELDORADO: ( 23:58 ) It's going to happen; and I hope to laugh with you -especially if my stock picks agree; and I don't want them back either.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 00:37)
@the scene
oldman -- Been a little lax on reading some of those books that I haven't been aware of. I did grow up in a family that was interested in these topics though. Perhaps some of the concepts and rational became ingrained. In any case, I'll keep an eye peeled for the book and the author's work you dare not post. I'm not hopeful in finding that one though! I probably came across references from it in the distant past. Part of that 'ingraindness' no doubt.

Strad Master
(Tue Aug 05 1997 00:47)
Time for some levity!
ALL: As it seems to be a quiet night, I thought several of you would appreciate this joke a friend sent me. I hope Tort didn't post this one earlier while I was away.

Clinton and the Pope died on the same day and due to some administrative foul up, Clinton gets sent to heaven and the Pope gets sent to hell.
The Pope explains the situation to the hell administration, they check
their paperwork, and the error is acknowledged. They explain, however, that it will take about 24 hours to make the switch.

The next day, the Pope is called in and the hell administration bids him farewell and he heads for heaven. On the way up, he meets Clinton on the
way down, and they stop to chat.

Pope: Sorry about the mix up.
Clinton: No problem.
Pope: Well, I'm really excited about going to heaven.
Clinton: Why's that?
Pope: All my life I've wanted to meet the Virgin Mary.
Clinton: Oh-oh! You're a day late.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 00:56)
@the scene
Miro -- Sounds logical up to a point. Kind of like Russia removing a couple zeros from their bills. Doesn't change a thing though. Sh*t is still sh*t. When you spiral everones wages down, you also have to do the same to the whole infrastructure of taxes and debt. How many years do you have to pay on that new school two blocks down the road? How about on that new one proposed for construction next year? Those 'fixed' costs are not going to go down. Defaulted perhaps. And don't forget that you, as a property owner in that town and/or county is BOUND to make it good! By YOUR property are you bound to make it good! Right up until you default! So you think you can do with lower and lower cost of living adjustments to your wages. Also don't forget about the rising prices of all those items that just somehow do not seem to be reflected in the CPI! Ah shoot, I forgot. You don't use those items anyway. Me neither. No one does! Somehow, I just cannot understand why there is SO much credit card debt out there. Just let us continue to see stagnant wages! HAR!!!!

(Tue Aug 05 1997 01:00)
RSA Platinum Hedging
RJ - Thanks for your response. Very interesting!! This may well explain why Rustenburg and Impala prices seem almost disconnected from the price of platinum.

You mentioned that 5-years's production had been presold to the Japanese, but that the price was "not inflexible". Do you have any more specifics that you are at liberty to disclose? How much will the mining companies benefit from the higher metal prices?

So in the last couple of days at Kitco, we have learned that RSA, SWC, and PDLFC ( N.A. Platinum ) are all locked in at some pre-agreed price. Probably the same holds true for Russia. It seems that only people like you that were astute enough to own the metal or who bought futures will really benefit from the price increase.

BTW, I'm very impressed that you actually meet with this exhalted group. But I guess I'm not surprised. This is your business, and you seem the sort that does his homework.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 01:10)
@the scene
Gonna go watch the movie that'll be playing on the backside of my eyelids. BBL.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 01:13)
Does anybody know?

Who Cares: Your posts are especially appreciated. May I ask, what is probably an unanswerable question.
In the days of the Railroad Barrons, did the new IPO's have Capitalization to Sales ratios of 50-1 or 200-1 as some of todays IPO's have?

(Tue Aug 05 1997 01:15)
RJ - Previous was of course from DJ, not RJ. It's getting late.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 01:23)
RJ - According to the news release I posted earlier today, Rustenburg earnings for 1996 were adversely affected by the lower platinum price in their fiscal year ending June, relative to the previous. This implies that their selling price does flucuate to some quite significant degree based on market price. Thus it should work to their favor in the coming year.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 01:28)
I believe

As late as 1980, Russia was reputed to have had large gold reserves. My thinking is that the recently published purchase of 127 tonne in was just Russian owned gold that making a round trip.
You know, certain private agreements and that sought of stuff.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 01:30)
I believe

As late as 1980, Russia was reputed to have had large
gold reserves. My thinking is that the recently
published purchase of 127 tonne was just Russian owned
gold making a round trip.
You know, certain private agreements and that sought of

(Tue Aug 05 1997 01:37)

Good evening fellow Kitcoites. Son of a gun. Gold seems to be eating Platinum's dust again. Nice to see things back to normal around here! BTW, I used today as a buying opportunity.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 02:09)
keep them coming

6pac: Best educational information I seen in a long time. If inclined - KEEP THEM COMING -, we all have a lot to learn.

Who Cares?
(Tue Aug 05 1997 02:25)
Jack - IPOs

Jack - IPO ratios - I had to admit ( because I *hate* making
mistakes ) but it never occurred to me to research it. : ) Nobody
ever asked before. I've mostly concentrated on macro-trends.

I do know that the railroads were considered to be the high-tech/
growth stocks after the Civil War, and electricity-related
stocks eclipsed them after 1890.

I also know that the "electricity boom" didn't produce a crash
like the railroads did. I have no idea why, other than perhaps
the capital costs involved. I'm often tempted to compare software
stocks to electricity. Often not, too.

Dang, that's a good question. I just don't pay much attention
to stock-specific information.

To make up for it, here's something you may not have seen before:

Year Event

1857 Land crash, minor depression
1869 Gold panic, market crash
1873 Big panic, market crash, depression
1884 Minor panic
1893 Panic, commercial building bust, depression
1907 Panic
1929 Panic, the Big Crash
1987 Big Panic

What do the years 1857, 1869, 1873, 1893, and 1929 have in
common? : ) Before answering, please note that these dates
represent 60% of the total dates....

Post-presidential election years. : ) Like 1997. : ) This
isn't a large enough statistical sample to make a real assessment,
but it's good enough for me. : )

One of the reasons I own gold, and don't care about the price,
is that I absolutely do not believe that I am capable of calling
the crash accurately. : )

Who Cares?
(Tue Aug 05 1997 03:03)
Miro, New Era = Information Age

Miro mentions a real drop in income as a software developer.

Please say you don't work in the PC market. : ) Oh, yeah, right,
if you're doing Y2K stuff, it's got to be mainframes. Okay, there's
no imminient crash yet. : )

Aurophile - Re: Cost of information. For the past five years,
I've been using the post-Civil War / railroads as a model for
now. I know of one Internet poster, MaryM, that believes the
1790 period is more accurate. You might want to do a DejaNews
search and pull up her postings, use http:\\,
choose a query, do a search on "MaryM" in the misc.invest news
groups. She can be interesting.

Re: COI - I am absolutely convinced that #1 our economy is being
increasingly driven by the IS industry, #2 this is largely related
to the rate at which the COST of information is dropping, versus
the PRICE which information can be sold at, i.e. expanding profit
margins despite enormous increases in total investment / costs,
#3 at some point in the near future, the rate of change will
diminish, or even possibly increase ( :o ) .

Some of the macro-trends from the railroads : a large portion of
the VALUE of railroads was derived from the breakup of what amounts
to local commodity monopolies. Immediately following the Civil War,
you see decreasing prices for commodities for almost thirty years.

Today's information industry is doing the same thing, here's an example
from my class last week:

Twenty years ago, when my senior high school class wanted to
create student IDs, we had to

i ) hire a photographer
ii ) work around HIS schedule for pictures
iii ) send out negatives for development by yet another
third party
iv ) wait two or three weeks, then pay twenty bucks. : )

Last month, when we wanted to create student IDs, we

i ) took our digital camera
ii ) instructed student to say "cheese"
iii ) imported picture file into a software template
iv ) printed ID on color printer, laminated it.

Look at that. Digital camera has destroyed not ONE, but
TWO local monopolies. And, yes, you could argue that they
may not have possessed an actual monopoly, but they sure as
darn tooting were charging more than we could do it for by
ourselves now. : ) Our costs for this were a joke. The digital
camera, depreciated out, probably contributes about $.30 or
$.40 per picture. The printer, less than $1.00.

Railroads have some interesting feedback effects. As the
RR drove down commodity costs, they create a positive feedback
cycle. After all, the RR themselves run on iron, coal, and labor.

Now they're driving the prices of these items down. : ) As local
commodity monopolies are broken up, you drive labor costs down.

Those labor costs feed the manufacturing companies that are
springing up. Manufacturing companies distribute agriculture
equipment that increases productivity ten-fold in a few years,
which drives labor costs down further. Railroads have a plentiful
labor supply to build more RRs, which breaks up more local
monopolies. The ten-fold increase in agri drives down prices
even further, freeing up more labor.

The real difference that I can find between the two is that
the Civil War is quantifiable, i.e. you can MEASURE the
increase in goods & services, the changes in income are

One of the biggest bugaboos in IS is that it truly is
unpredictable, as I learned from my previous project. I
originally estimated that we'd see a ROI of perhaps 25-30%
on a projected expenditure of $4-5 million. To make a long
story short, three years later, the cost/benefit figures
came out to a ROI in excess of 400%. : ) Absolutely
unpredictable. : )

I think this "miasma" of unpredictability is partly responsible
for the sustained delusional mania of the past three years. The
guys on Wall Street have absolutely no idea of how to price
information and its effects. Nobody does. That project could
just as easily have come up with an ROI of -400%. We're not
dealing in tangibles anymore.

Another aspect that bothers me is that the single largest purchaser
of IS is the Federal government. Essentially, you have an
Information Infrastructure monopoly of Intel / Microsoft, supported
by the monopoly of State and Federal governments. There is a
strong likelyhood, in my mind, that the current "Price of
Information" is overvalued.

I also strongly believe that the Industrial Revolution was
probably MORE revolutionary than what is taking place now,
i.e. the Information Age is greatly overblown. Virtually
none of the "investors" or "market analysts" even know that
the Industrial Revolution was.

John Disney
(Tue Aug 05 1997 05:02)
To All
Do not know where the info you get on Implats
and rusplats comes from but I dont think it is the full
Implats normally has contract prices which lag the
market price by 6 months ( either up or down ) . IF they
entered into a forward sale for ( 5 years?? ) - it would
have been done at a high level ( order of 500$/oz ) and
would escalate by about 8% per year.
Rusplat/leplat/pp-rust do not have this 6 month lag
in their pricing arragements - If they have sold forward
as you suggest then they would also have used the
recent high price period in which to do so. They may have
entered into an long term offtake agreement but if so,
it would have been at a high base price with a handsome
escalation. Otherwise they would have no reason to do it
since they were profitable at much lower prices.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 05:19)
Who Cares: Yours at 3:03. That is a great analysis. You should be proud of it. One caution. During the railroad era you had real savers and a gold standard. Savers could safely set aside money for capital to supply to your railroad, the manufacturers etc. Today there are no savers. The IS business is largely financed by credit. That is an excess cost that must be included in the price of the product. The Panic of 1907 was largely caused by railroads who attempted to use credit for expansion and could not compete with those who used saved capital as they had a lower cost. Could not the same event happen in the IS industry? The low cost survivors in the IS industry will, most likely, be those who use debt to the least extent. Keep that kind of stuff coming. I love it.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 05:35)
WHO CARES: There was indeed a "Crash" of electric utilities but is was so mixed up with the crash of '29 that it gets little attention in its own right. You want to look up information about Samuel Insull. I have a URL here which is a good start.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 05:55)
Dollar very strong again this morning. European stock markets up. Gold down 40 cents as the whites rise further.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 06:01)

Am informed that in 1971 it became once again legal for American citizens to own and purchase gold, and that this event helped launch gold into a bull market culminating in 1974 at about $200 per ounce.This leads me to wonder if the Russian policy allowing their citizens to own and purchase gold might lead to a similarly bullish trend?

(Tue Aug 05 1997 06:21)
Stox in Europe bouncin back from yesterday....EBN gold down .35 and Silver down 2 cents....but london Silver up 4 cents...LEI out this mornin with the perliminary est.@ .2% .....UPS: Is this the beginning of "worker backlash".....I want my piece of the pie...ect..ect...could change investor psychology about inflation.....

(Tue Aug 05 1997 06:24)
perliminary=preliminary in Cape Breton....just woke up...kind of!..the java is brewin and I NEED it...

(Tue Aug 05 1997 06:41)
mornin' all, trust we are all set for the day?
Hmmm seems so far i didnot get kicked out of my short corn position,still picking up dec gold options ( lottery ) .
Oldman ,good to see you back .
Lookin to short dem BEANS awaiting signal , still trying to get the hang of DTNstant system.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 06:42)
Hello Ted: Already finished my second cup while reading all the posts that were made after I went to bed. All the good intellectual stuff gets posted while I am making zzzzzzz's.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 06:48)
Mornin Donald!...I miss alot of posts too as I'm even an hour ahead of you...Usually get up earlier but it's a grey rainy day on the North Atlantic ocean...Dollar surging against Mark ( 1.8790 ) in the last hour as Germany didn't raise rates....BBL....

(Tue Aug 05 1997 06:54)
GEORGE COLE: Hi George, re your dollar comment. I am rethinking my position on the dollar. I had thought the strength was a sign of weakness, ie everyone needs it to pay excessive dollar debt. After the stock crash though, as dollars evaporate, there could be a real shortage of dollars. We will have to see the Fed's reaction and whether or not dollars pile up in the banks unused again.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 07:10)
Japanese household spending drops 4.7% from year ago. Deflation?

(Tue Aug 05 1997 07:23)
Brazil says reserves hit new high.
Korean bankruptcy impacts Brazil
Canadians search for diamonds in Brazil

(Tue Aug 05 1997 07:33)
Malaysia has no plans to halt currency speculation. ( Yesterday they "had tricks up their sleeves", stocks down 3.5% overnight but not in this story )

(Tue Aug 05 1997 07:42)
Governor of Pakistani Central Bank warns that interest cap of 21% will put banks in "real trouble" ( This is buried in the bottom of the last story on the list )

(Tue Aug 05 1997 07:47)
OOPS; My error. Here is the Pakistani story. ( stocks up 1.26% over night on the goodnews part of this story )

(Tue Aug 05 1997 07:49)
Joke of the morning
It looks like gold and silver are going to language where they are for a bit. One occasionally ponders as to why he is a goldbug after all, but the habit is there and its easier to change the stripes on a zebra than change a philosophy about our beloved metal. Despite my clinging doubts I will stick with the hard metal philosophy. It sounds better to me than investing in the philosophy that all is well with the markets and that you can't lose in paper. Now for the joke of the morning.

One day an out of work mime is visiting the zoo and attempts to earn
some money as a street performer. Unfortunately, as soon as he starts
to draw a crowd, a zoo keeper grabs him and drags him into his office.

The zoo keeper explains to the mime that the zoo's most popular
attraction, a gorilla has died suddenly and the keeper fears that
attendance at the zoo will fall off. He offers the mime a job to dress
up as the gorilla until they can get another one. The mime accepts.

So the next morning the mime puts on the gorilla suit and enters the
cage before crowd comes. He discovers that it's a great job.
He can sleep all he wants, play and make fun of people and he draws
bigger crowds than he ever did as a mime. However, eventually the
crowds tire of him and he tires of just swinging on tires. He begins
to notice that the people are paying more attention to the lion in
the cage next to his. Not wanting to lose the attention of his audience,
he climbs to the top of his cage, crawls across a partition, and dangles
from the top to the lion's cage. Of course, this makes the lion
furious, but the crowd loves it.

At the end of the day the zoo keeper comes and gives the mime a raise
for being such a good attraction.

Well, this goes on for some time, the mime keeps taunting the lion, the
crowds grow larger, and his salary keeps going up. Then one terrible
day when he is dangling over the furious lion he slips and falls.
The mime is terrified. The lion gathers itself and prepares to pounce.
The mime is so scared that he begins to run round and round the cage
with the lion close behind. Finally, the mime starts screaming and
yelling, "Help, Help me!", but the lion is quick and pounces.
The mime soon finds himself flat on his back looking up at the angry
lion and the lion says,

"Shut up you idiot! Do you want to get us both fired?"

(Tue Aug 05 1997 07:50)
Mark Skousen's current newsletter suggests that while we're waiting for
another bull market in precious metals, it might be a good time to learn
more about mining shares and how they fit into our crazy economy. He
recommends an audio/video home study course offered by Mining Investment
College. To receive more information, Mark gives a toll-free number,
( 888 ) 846-9029, ext. #508. When I called the number to request more
information, the only question asked, besides my name and address, was
where did I learn about the course. My reply was Mark's publication
is called "Forecasts & Strategies". This could be something worthwhile,
and it only takes about a minute to ask for more details.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 07:51)
That would be "languish" rather than "language" in the last post. Sorry. I am not quite awake yet.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 07:53)
Leland, what is Mark Skousen's prediction about the gold market? I used to watch his predictions pretty close but somehow lost track.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 07:54)
OLDMAN: You Aug 4 23:48 post says a lot about how our governments ( Fed,State,and Local ) with all their regulations and taxing methods are destroying our country. It made me want to cry. The investment mania bubble will certainly bust with disasterous results. Always felt you were one of the most astute posters on this board. Please keep contributing.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 07:58)
Thailand Finance Ministry proposes cure for economy.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 08:01)
Speaking about bubbles Leo F. Hood's latest newsletter Ripples in the Wave states the global derivities markets are estimated to be in the $40 to $50 TRILLION range. The Trillion is correct. Tulips anyone?

(Tue Aug 05 1997 08:08)
Previous post on global derivities should have indicated PER DAY.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 08:13)
TORT: Mark Skousen recommends no more than 10% of portfolio in natural
resources, and for investors to be looking for undervalued stocks, as
this is a good time for buying. He is not looking for any quick recovery
for gold. He's very sensible, as usual.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 08:31)
up at 5am back down at 5:30...bad week for waves...
great week for EB's markets...Gotta love it dreamland to watch sugarplums dance...and Gold poop...


nothing like a good gold short in the wee hours...

(Tue Aug 05 1997 08:33)
Good afternoon JIN!...Sounds like your stock market had a bad Tuesday....
Mornin Tort!!....S+P futures= - 2.90 ....EBN Gold down .60

(Tue Aug 05 1997 08:34)
Palladium news;

Dollar/ DM story;

(Tue Aug 05 1997 08:46)
Mornin Panda! Every EBN commodity is down .70 and silver down 4 cents....Panda: What's your weather today??

Bob A
(Tue Aug 05 1997 08:55)
Seems to me that with all the interest in Plat and Pall.that PDLCF and SWC could be takeover targets. That would make my day or year for that matter.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 08:59)
November 12, 1997: Transcript from CNBC:

Just a few short months ago the mere mention of the word gold brought about laughter and sarcastic comments. The stock bull was raging and investors were picking their stocks because a friend of a friend said it was going up and it was just the place to be. If you were not in the market you were a looser, was the general consensus.

Now it seems as though investors cant get enough of the shinny metals and the mention of the words Stock Market bring about the look of pain and stress in a persons face. All this from those who said, "times are different now", are now saying, "I should of known."

Its important in life to remember that everything in life has a cycle. The earth, the weather, the food chain, the power that comes into your home, and if you understand biorhythms you know that people cycle too. So it should only be common sense to see that financial markets cycle also. This cycle will continue until the end of time. The only thing constant is change!

active lurker
(Tue Aug 05 1997 09:01)

This was Kurt Vonneguts commencement address at MIT:

Ladies and gentlemen of the class of 97:
Wear sunscreen.
If I could offer you only one tip for the future, sunscreen would be it. The long-term benefits of sunscreen have been proved by scientists, whereas the rest of my advice has no basis more reliable than my own meandering experience. I will dispense this advice now.
Enjoy the power and beauty of your youth. Oh, never mind. You will not understand the power and beauty of your youth until theyve faded. But trust me, in 20 years, youll look back at photos of yourself and recall in a way you cant grasp now how much possibility lay before you and how fabulous you really looked. You are not as fat as you imagine.
Dont worry about the future. Or worry, but know that worrying is as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by chewing bubble gum. The real troubles in your life are apt to be things that never crossed your worried mind, the kind that blindside you at 4 pm on some idle Tuesday.

Do one thing every day that scares you.


Dont be reckless with other peoples hearts. Dont put up with people who are reckless with yours.


Dont waste your time on jealousy. Sometimes youre ahead, sometimes youre behind. The race is long and, in the end, its only with yourself.

Remember compliments you receive. Forget the insults. If you succeed in doing this, tell me how.

Keep your old love letters. Throw away your old bank statements.


Dont feel guilty if you dont know what you want to do with your life. The most interesting people I know didnt know at 22 what they wanted to do with their lives. Some of the most interesting 40-year-olds I know still dont.

Get plenty of calcium. Be kind to your knees. Youll miss them when theyre gone.

Maybe youll marry, maybe you wont. Maybe youll have children, maybe you wont. Maybe youll divorce at 40, maybe youll dance the funky chicken on your 75th wedding anniversary. Whatever you do, dont congratulate yourself too much, or berate yourself either. Your choices are half chance. So are everybody elses.

Enjoy your body. Use it every way you can. Dont be afraid of it or of what other people think of it. Its the greatest instrument youll ever own.

Dance, even if you have nowhere to do it but your living room.

Read the directions, even if you dont follow them.

Do not read beauty magazines. They will only make you feel ugly.

Get to know your parents. You never know when theyll be gone for good. Be nice to your siblings. Theyre your best link to your past and the people most likely to stick with you in the future.

Understand that friends come and go, but with a precious few you should hold on. Work hard to bridge the gaps in geography and lifestyle, because the older you get, the more you need the people who knew you when you were young.

Live in New York City once, but leave before it makes you hard. Live in Northern California once, but leave before it makes you soft. Travel.

Accept certain inalienable truths: Prices will rise. Politicians will philander. You, too, will get old. And when you do, youll fantasize that when you were young, prices were reasonable, politicians were noble, and children respected their elders.

Respect your elders.

Dont expect anyone else to support you. Maybe you have a trust fund. Maybe youll have a wealthy spouse. But you never know when either one might run out.

Dont mess too much with your hair or by the time youre 40 it will look 85.

Be careful whose advice you buy, but be patient with those who supply it. Advice is a form of nostalgia. Dispensing it is a way of fishing the past from the disposal, wiping it off, painting over the ugly parts and recycling it for more than its worth.

But trust me on the sunscreen.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 09:05)
reply to Leland
You posted, "To receive more information, Mark gives a toll-free number,
( 888 ) 846-9029, ext. #508. When I called the number to request more
information, the only question asked, besides my name and address, was
where did I learn about the course. My reply was Mark's publication
is called "Forecasts & Strategies". This could be something worthwhile,
and it only takes about a minute to ask for more details."
If you had answered that question by saying Bob Bishop's newsletter you would have been offered an additional $259 off of the price of the course. $259 is the finder's fee that these newsletter writer's are being offered to drum up buyer's of this course. Bishop elected to eschew the commission and pass the savings on to any of his readers who purchase the course.
Just wanted you to be aware that Skousen has a financial interest in this educational opportunity he has offered you.


(Tue Aug 05 1997 09:10)
Things ain't lookin good at the Comex....Gold down 1.90; Silver down 9.2 cents...but Platinum uo 2.30 .....

George Cole
(Tue Aug 05 1997 09:11)
JOBERG Gold index down just 0.3% despite sharp drop in bullion this morning. Very encouraging action indeed!

(Tue Aug 05 1997 09:12)
TED -- The weather is overcast with occasional showers forecast for today. The temperature is about 60 degrees F right now. Looks like gold just went in to the hopper again!

(Tue Aug 05 1997 09:18)
Hi RL, your comments about Bob Bishop's involvement with the home study
course sours the whole idea. Thanks for letting me know. This is the
kind'a thing that makes Kitco so very interesting!

(Tue Aug 05 1997 09:23)
Active Lurker:

Thanks, that was great.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 09:24)
For those who follow technical indicators, a Percent R sell signal was given in silver for this morning.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 09:52)
I am carked at those who beek in in utter adlubescence at RJ's killcow's. Although the debate has had its agathokakological aspects I am in a fary that we must be hoful that our chat is not carried on felly and, at the same time, we do not brangle, breedbate, become eyndill, nor fage, resort not to floccinaucinihilipilification, pumpkinification, nor resort to lickspigottery. Now let's all get back to work and build up our bulse!

Spud Master
(Tue Aug 05 1997 09:52)
are you an Aristocrat? Show us your fingers....
re: UPS strike. Game over for the grossly overpaid CEOs and managers of corporations: they are useless parasites, consuming much money, and having little or no talent other than self-agrandizement and laying-off workers. ANY UPS delivery person does more REAL work & value than ANY coporate CEO. Let the CEO's multi-million dollar salaries be cut down to a dollar value comensurate with their real worth - maybe $50,000 - $70,000 a year. The remaining $4 million can be invested into the company as new R&D, increased wages for productive workers, new products. Any CEO making millions of dollars a year had better be inventing warp drive, room temperature superconductivity, cure for cancer, cold fusion etc. five or six times a day. Apple's former recent CEO - what did this guy do for the stock & millions they paid him? Laid off 7,000 Apple employees? Loose PC market share? Are people insane? And they paid this guy millions?! He should have PAY BACK millions to Apple for his poor performance!

Not one more cent for parasitical CEOs and their ilk!


(Tue Aug 05 1997 09:57)
geff- I admit it - I'm still learning and not as knowledgeable about technicals as I should be. What's a 'percentage R' sell sigmal?

(Tue Aug 05 1997 10:04)
A grim day at the Comex: Gold down 2.80;Silver down 11.2 cents but Platinum is up 4.80 and palladium is up 10.90 ( wow ) ...XAU down 1.57...Will gold +Silver drag down platinum+palladium before the day is over or will it work the other way????....Thanks for weather report Panda and it's kinda grim here today too....

(Tue Aug 05 1997 10:14)
TED -- Now it's partly sunny! When the sun comes out, it's great! Reminds of Montana weather this time of year. The way the gold market is reacting, it may be time to find a mountain or two to climb! This is getting too painful to watch. If I managed to fall off of one of those mountains, I think it would be more pleasurable! :- ) )
Therefore, I'll let my PC watch it for me and give me the grim details later today. :- )

(Tue Aug 05 1997 10:17)
Here's some more metals news. Looks like the PGMs are the way to go in this metals market!


(Tue Aug 05 1997 10:20)
@grim day
Panda: If the weather was better I'd jump in the kayak to escape...No mountains near by....XAU down 1.94 ......Are we headed down to test recent low of approx. 313???....

(Tue Aug 05 1997 10:20)

I don't think there is going to be a lot of dragging in the Pa market, except for the carcasses of drowned shorts. The market now looks like the proverbial deer in the headlights. The 80,000 pound truck traveling at 75 mph is bearing down rapidly. The Pa shorts are going to be even more squished than they already are. The dental industry is going to find that gold fillings are just as good as Pa and they will be about the same price.

After talking with a few contacts about the emergency meeting at the Tocom it was not hard to imagine that the Tocom officials might try to emulate the Comex honcho's of yesteryear in their battle with the Hunt bro's. There is however the high probability of an exquisite twist to this plot which may render this plan inoperable. While I can not say for sure, there is a strong likelyhood that the people on the other side of the Japanese short position in Tocom are the Russians. In order to fulfill their obligations to their Japanese clients it may well be that the Russians have purchased Pa in the Tokyo futures market.

The only regret I have about markets in general is that when a story with such intrigue as this eventually plays itself out, we never get to know what really happened but are left with many suppositions and dangling threads.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 10:25)
D.A. ( 10:20 ) Interesting post as usual!....Do you think Gold is headed back down to the 313 level...or even lower??

(Tue Aug 05 1997 10:36)
YES ,bettttttter go for kayak...have a nice day!
yes ,klse in malaysia have big trouble since last 3/july,so as the currency markets!dropped 50 points nearly in few days...godness!i can say the local and foreign investors are SCARE and LEAVE THE MARKETS around in south east asia.Personally think, every cautions steps they took only still UNCLEAR AND NEED LONGER TIME TO PROVE!me my self have big trouble,short a lots of gold from 328 per oz still lost in the currency exchange rate as last time!EQUAL!GAIN NOTHINGS!!THE RETAIL MARKET IN MALAYSIA AND SINGAPORE turn a bit better..,,,maybe short live ,i think!so long ,,,stormy nite.....good trade......jin...

(Tue Aug 05 1997 10:37)
As we await the market madness to end and the gold bull to begin, we can all take comfort in the fact that while no one can, with 100% certainty, predict the exact day that the reverses finally begin, they will begin in the not too distant future. The Dow and S+P's parabolic nature are simply unsustainable unless the laws of nature have been successfully repealled by current government's. ;- ) The following quote, frustrating, yet true, merely tells us to have patience.
"The laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacious in particular."

------ Edward Gibbon

(Tue Aug 05 1997 10:38)

It sure does act pretty sick. As to 313, I don't really have a clue. I still own the junk and won't be a seller anytime soon. The action is again dictated by the surging dollar and perhaps European sales. It has been interesting to watch the price of gold in DM and see it throttled as it got a little over the 600 area. This is the second time we have bounced up to this level and been repelled. Perhaps the third time is a charm. As for the dollar, it would seem that the recent spurt may well tie the Fed's hand as the political pressure from multinationals weighs in. This will only add more fuel to the economic fire which ultimately is what is going to drive gold up.

The things that I am looking at in gold are big macro things. They are useless in informing one about the next 5$. All I know is that the stuff is cheap and hated. I am adding a bit to my silver position on this pullback, for it too is cheap, hated and disappearing.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 10:38)
WE HAVE BEEN HAD (Is Former Pres. Nixon Turning in his Grave?)
The U.S. Dollar has been over-valued for the last 26 years - since 1971. What is causing this overvaluation must be something extraordinary, but what can it be?:

(Tue Aug 05 1997 10:42)
Mooney--Percent R was developed by Larrt Williams. It is a relative overbought/oversold indicator which compares the last close in relation to the past X number of days ( the one I saw was 14 days ) .

Buy signals are only taken in an uptrend, sells only in a downtrend.

You can take a look at an example at up silver under custom charts.

Hope this helps.


(Tue Aug 05 1997 10:44)
THE KITCO SHOWN is 319.80 now!its closed to 313.....!let's see!

(Tue Aug 05 1997 10:47)

FSAGX down .84% while XAU down about 2%. Comments? Thanks.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 10:57)
Hi JIN! D.A. Thanks for the response and IT looks cheap to me too...Looks like I was half-way right on Comex "drag" factor as Platinum is now down 5.20...and Gold down 4.0 and silver down 11.7 cents....

(Tue Aug 05 1997 11:03)
We are seeing a very broad falloff of gold stocks, both domestic and S. African. XAU has covered the gap at 95+. With gold this low, this most certainly sets a new Dow/gold high ~25.5. However, being caused primarily by a decreasing gold, it cannot be much of a sign for a top.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 11:03)
D.A. Truck blinked?

(Tue Aug 05 1997 11:03)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Thailand to get $10 billion from IMF. Promises not to sell off too much of its foreign reserves:

(Tue Aug 05 1997 11:06)
@the battlefield
Folks it looks pretty grim. The ammo has almost run out, we are taking heavy casualties, and the enemy is closing in. We aren't sure if they take prisoners, or just simply execute. Maybee time to gather up the weapons and bid a hasty retreat.
IMHO there is extreme CB selling going on behind the scenes, which they will anounce once it's over. People in the must also be selling. It doesn't look good at all for Gold particularly in light of the strong Pgms.
I would not be surprised anymore to see 250. to 275. more sooner than later. Sorry for the pesimism, but it seems to be the harsh reality at the moment.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 11:09)
All - George Cole and I had a bit of a discussion a few weeks back wondering whether the latest drop ( that being the one after the Aussie announcement ) was going to be it or whether the second shoe would drop before the final bottom would be in. The evidence ( the relatively lackluster performance of gold since then ) has, for the last few weeks, not been particularily convincing that the absolute bottom was in. With today's action the second shoe dropping might be exactly what is needed to finally put in place the final bottom on the charts. This downward action so close to the new moon ( as hesitatingly prognosticated by my Friday Aug. 1 early A.M ) is making me pay more and more attention to our friend Akahulick's words. Now, if we reverse and start sky-rocketing on or about the 18th ( full moon ) I shall be joining his cult. ( However, I will not purchase any Nike's ) . The occurrence of sharp down moves within one or two days of a new moon and sharp up moves within one or two days of full moon's seems to be very regular as of late. Of course, I may be open to fanciful conjecture on this issue, as previously postulated by Mike Sheller. ;- )

(Tue Aug 05 1997 11:13)
Thoughts @ Canada
Modern.... Artificial.... Control

Be Quiet....Consume.......and Die

United We Fall....Divided We Stand

(Tue Aug 05 1997 11:19)
@part 1 is here, part 2 to begin?
I posted on Aug 2 that there would be a "scare" decline to make both bulls and bears alike think the trend is still down, before reversing up. Today's action is just that. It is necessary action to clear out weak hands.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 11:22)
geff - Is this the RSI indicator that you are speaking of, because if so, I am aware of it, but did realise what you meant by a 'percent R' sell signal had been given, I suppose lines crossed or more likely the RSI # became too high?

Steve - Perth
(Tue Aug 05 1997 11:37)
Bonds for sale....going cheap

BTW, I did mention that gold hadn't hit bottom yet, didn't I!!??!!!

(Tue Aug 05 1997 11:41)
Thars gold in them thar shorts.
RJ - Looks like you get to break out the cognac again today. Hope you are not running short. ( Pun intended ) . At the moment it appears your hedge strategy is in trouble, but I would be quite surprised if PL stays down for long. The great thing about have people with different strategies and views on this forum is that no matter which way the metals move, we always get to help someone celebrate their success. Cheers.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 11:53)
Logic error
What am I saying. Of course your hedge strategy is working as planned. You are making more money in shorts than you are losing in platinum. Of course even better would be for platinum to go up as well. This would make me happy too. Cheers still.

Roy Orbison
(Tue Aug 05 1997 11:53)
Alone and cryin... cryin...cryin...cryin..
I'm cryin... cryin... over AU.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 11:57)
@4 U
LONDON, Aug 5 ( Reuter ) - Palladium fixed at its highest level in 17 years on Tuesday morning but by the afternoon fixing prices had turned easier across the precious metals complex.

A further surge in the dollar's value against the yen and mark was a factor behind the easier tone as dealers took profits and abandonded efforts to support gold or push silver higher.

Palladium fixed at $239.00 per ounce at the afternoon fixing down from the new high since March 1980 of $245.50 hit at the morning fix. Sister metal platinum fixed at $457.00 down from $460.00 earlier.

Gold came back to fix at $321.10 from $323.35 earlier and the December contract on New York's Comex futures market was down $4.60 at $323.50.

``Many people were expecting gold to go lower today. It has been under pressure from the currencies and support was wearing thin around the $322.00,'' one dealer said.

``Now that that is breached we could be looking for gold in a $314.50-$322.00 bracket,'' he added.

The weaker outlook for gold comes despite comments from leaders of India's gold industry that farmers, anticipating a bountiful harvest after a beneficial monsoon, may take advantage of low world prices. This should raise 1997 imports to over 500 tonnes from around 409 tonnes last year.

``The weight of selling orders over the market is much more significant for the price in the shorter term,'' a dealer said.

A strike at the platinum refinery of one-million ounces per year producer Imapla Platinum Holdings made no appreciable diffence to the platinum price which was being powered higher by interest in palladium, dealers said.

Management at the South African plant said production had not been affected despite attempts at disruption.

Platinum was indicated at $448.50/$451.50, down $1.50.

Dealers said platinum had become a very technical market following the entry of funds buying call options last week.

Palladium was off its early highs as well but dealers said this was not the end of a recent surge driven by a short-covering scramble in Tokyo as the surging dollar has bitten deeply into profit potential.

``There is still short covering to be done in Tokyo,'' one dealer said, noting that palladium futures have been limit up for four days straight and the daily trading limit was being widened from tomorrow.

Bulls abandoned their efforts to push silver through $4.50-$4.55. It was last at $4.40/$4.42, down seven cents.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 11:57)
Bart - Gold is almost off your chart. Need to reconfigure.
Tortman - Your 7:49 basically says it all ( in the BIG picture AAR ) in these few words:
"Despite my clinging doubts I will stick with the hard metal philosophy. It sounds better to me than investing in the philosophy that all is well with the markets and that you can't lose in paper."

Steve - Perth
(Tue Aug 05 1997 12:12)
Thanks aurophile re: depression bonds.
Re: Sir James Goldsmith. He said recently
"When an economic policy makes you rich when yo eliminate your national workforce and transfer your production abroad, and bankrupts you when you employ your own people, then something is wrong".

Am flying to Esperance this morning ( later when the sun gets up!! ) . Will check back in probably Saturday sometime. I have a great article to type in by Bob Santamaria about solutions to the depression. It has all been done before!! But the rentier class can't handle it. Very dumb of them.

Steve - Perth
(Tue Aug 05 1997 12:26)
Wesfarmers shares is Australia could be affected by El Nino
( see last paragraph of this article ) The shares are extremely highly.
Up by over 70% for the year anyhow....

(Tue Aug 05 1997 12:26)
did 'ya know?
From the US Customs site: Gold coins, medals, and bullion, formerly prohibited, may be brought into the United States. However, under regulations administered by the Office of Foreign Assets Control, such items originating in or brought from Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and North Korea are prohibited entry. Copies of gold coins are prohibited if not properly marked by country of issuance.


Nosiree, can't let those tainted gold atoms from Cuba foul our virgin shores!

(Tue Aug 05 1997 12:26)
Looks like PL is suffering from profiteers...yuk, yuk. I LOVE impeccable timing - Rid the PL/short the gold... I'm glad the swell sucks this morning. This is a MUCH better ride...

We're having one of those heat waves in CAL. Time to duck in for a little A/C... and a little Frozen Concentrate. Is everyone still drinking two glasses of OJ ( and red wine ) a day? Let's GO gang! Drink-up!

Away $$$$!!!!:- ) :- ) :-$


RJ-don't worry ( i'm not a total numbskull ) i'm planning More strategies for our lovely, blessed, reverred, hallowed, envied, WHITE metal...Sooooon!

Steve - Perth
(Tue Aug 05 1997 12:28)
Wesfarmers shares in Australia could be affected by El Nino
( see last paragraph of this article ) The shares are extremely high in price. Up by over 70% for the year anyhow....
Apologies for typos.

Bob A
(Tue Aug 05 1997 12:44)
gut feeling
IMHO I expect the metals to reverse direction and head-up on Thurs.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 13:05)
Buy Low, Sell High.

Going back to the bb fisher Dow/Gold chart with the full century of data you may want to look at the year 1980 with these thoughts in mind.

Gold was at 850 in that year. With the benefit of hindsight it was the low. If you had started selling 1/12 of your holdings each month at the point when it crossed the line from 1932, that is, during November, 1979, you would have done very well. You only missed a few dollars on the upside and you fully avoided the slide that continues to this moment. The moment of crossover was your exit signal.

Now look at the 1929 top when the ratio hit 18.43 ( not marked on the chart ) . Consider this moment of crossover as your re-entry signal. If you bought gold at the crossover point you are back in gold at 340 during January, 1997. We know now that 340 was not the bottom. In dealing with a 100 year chart showing a ratio of 28.6 as the top during that entire period there does not seem to be a lot of risk in beginning to cost average starting last January. Each of the major turning points, except 1966, had an acceptable trading level of about a year. If you were to decide on a final number of ounces for your long term buy and hold position, and accumulate 1/12 each month for a year, you should obtain your full position at a price that is very close to the final bottom.

If you are a short term trader this information is, obviously, not suitable for your purposes. In any event, it is your decision. I am merely providing some of my observations for those of you who may be considering a purchase or a sale today or in the near future.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 13:11)
From the same crystal ball that predicted the recent rally in gold to be a fakeout: the next move up in gold will be tradable, with an upside objective of at least $340 basis GCZ7. XAU target is 99 - 100. The bottom is near, we will NOT see Z7 below $310 regardless how strong the US$ gets. The crystal ball is that both GOX and HUI are acting stronger than the XAU for the second day in a row. Expect a bullish key reversal this week. In the same vein... secondary stocks are far stronger than big caps. Weakness is most pronounced in the large-cap bank stocks. Not a good sign for financial assets. The end is near. Ingot We Trust.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 13:23)
Price of gold is falling, price of guns ( including AK-47s ) are rising.... But I can't recieve them or ship them anywhere! Damn bunch of #%^#$@&** UPS union pukes.

Spud Master re:09:52

Agree with you assessment, but I don't much care for the unions or their Mafiaso management either. Those union management goons make as much as some CEOs. And some of the union people are a lot like some of those worthless U.S. civil servants you read about - they don't work and you can't fire them.

O.K., I'll go back to lurking like I promised....

'Every once in a while, declare peace. It confuses the hell out of your

Who Cares?
(Tue Aug 05 1997 13:40)
Donald - electricity crash

So there is a crash. Dang. I thought so. You're right, I
haven't looked at 1929 much. I assumed that the electricity
craze probably had been washed in 1907, because the time
frame is right. The growth rates from 1890 to 1900 are
unbelievable. Over 400% in ten years. That's got to be on a
par with today's high-tech stocks.

I am troubled that the electricity boom didn't manifest itself
as a separate, distinct crash. As near as I can tell, one of
the qualitative differences between railroad/Intel and elect/
software is that electricity and software have a great "permeability"
throughout the economy. You find them invading virtually all
industries and jobs. The railroads and Intel are more limited
and specific in their impact.

I have wondered if this is the difference.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 13:41)
@somewhere out there
Last year it was flight 800, this year it is flight 801, mmmm.

Who Cares?
(Tue Aug 05 1997 13:46)
CEOs :)

Since CEOs are the target of the day -

The current situation vis a vis CEOs is ( what else ) a function
of information. : ) Technically, the stockholders ( Board of
Directors ) control CEO salaries and compensation. But, CEOs
have control over the information that the stockholders receive.

Another conspiracy in the making. : )

I fully expect that the Crash will shake out the flaws in the
current system. I imagine that stockholders, after getting
their butts severly burned in the near future, will institute
a channel of information throughout the company that is isolated
from management. : )

Just another place for somebody, somewhere, to make money. : )

(Tue Aug 05 1997 13:48)
Is it a bad sign when Kitco has to re-scale the 24-hour Gold Price Chart in order to show the fall in spot gold for the day?

(Tue Aug 05 1997 14:03)
Just back from an ocean walk in a heavy fog and see the situation hasn't gotten any better...Comex: Gold down 4.80; Silver down 19.2 cents; Platinum down 12.2 dollars but Palladium UP 6.90...XAU holdin up pretty good all things considered...XAU down 2.14...

(Tue Aug 05 1997 14:15)
@ Testing:
As they say on radio: "This is a test, only a test." I always disliked tests. : (

(Tue Aug 05 1997 14:16)
Tort: HELP!....We need another joke!...

(Tue Aug 05 1997 14:18)
PL went from up 4.80 @ 11AM to down 12.20 @ 3PM.....

(Tue Aug 05 1997 14:18)
@a plan
Hey Guys,

Was talking to my cousin and was telling him about my theories on the market. Well he added an interesting bit of information I was unaware of. Apparently come the first of the year homeowners in Texas will be able to take out home equity loans. This apparently was not allowed before. My cousin says they are predicting $6 billion in loans. He feels that this is going to have a big impact on the Texas economy and the U.S. economy in general. Maybe some of these people will be motivated to buy gold with their new found cash. Especially if this can occur at a time when the equity market is falling and gold is on the upswing. Oh well hope springs eternal. Personally I've decided that possessing the physical is where I want to be. Thus I've been raising cash, and when gold hits $300 per ounce I'll be buying, conversely if it goes up to $340 per ounce I also be buying.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 14:21)
Thanks for the improvements at the graph site!

(Tue Aug 05 1997 14:27)
gunny, I agree that now may be the time to shift emphasis to
guns while gold is forming its bottom. I recently ordered a
non-Colt M16 shorty, my first class III purchase. Are you a
dealer? With gold and guns ( and maybe some girls! ) , how can
you go wrong? Do you browse the Vollmer or Bowers sites?

(Tue Aug 05 1997 14:29)
Casino stocks are soarin today.....must have cashed in their gold+silver chips ta buy stox....Hi Mooney!

Spud Master
(Tue Aug 05 1997 14:38)
...the best lack all conviction, the worst are full of passionate intensity...
gunrunner: Don't get me wrong, I'm no cardial loss-of-containment liberal, unions may once have served a necessary role, but today I see them as merely an extension of the corporate cabal; example - Union management personnel making more money than their contributing members - that's insane too. I do feel, however, that corporate CEO's ARE the biggest impediment these days - in Japan there used to be a 5 to 1 range between lowest paid worker and highest paid CEO. Management certainly has a valid role in our work force, but that role is relatively unimportant - I'd pay them no more than an engineer - and likely much, much less. As I said, if a CEO was inventing warp drive every day, he'd be worth a multi-million dollar salary. But the bulk of them are just worthless drains on a corporation. Take the CEO multimillion dollar salaries and reinvest it in the company!

(Tue Aug 05 1997 14:45)
Dear Kitco
Please run the 24-hour chart upside down today.

George Cole
(Tue Aug 05 1997 14:50)
market action
Mooney: In yesterday's post to Ark I argued that the failure of bullion to follow the whites higher probably was signalling a new falloff. Another warning sign was the very low volume in the gold stocks. So today's drop didn't really surprise me, although I had hoped I was wrong.

On the brighter side, the gold stocks have held up pretty well considering bullion's plunge and Korondy is getting bullish.

The much stronger action by the secondary stocks signals that the final stock blowoff has begun. Russell 2000 could go MUCH higher these next few weeks. But the end is not far off. And I am sticking to my forecast that stocks will peak and gold will turn this month.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 15:00)
Seems strange that only coffee and palladium are up today and everything else except the Charmin investments ( please don't squeeze the Charmin Mr. Whipple ) is dismally down. One wonders if one can't get the coffee jitters without even drinking it simply by watching the gold and silver graphs.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 15:04)
@dinghy dining
TED: Ding Ding......check it out yer box!

(Tue Aug 05 1997 15:06)
Bonus joke for Ted
Ted, I know you need the following joke. I hope this will satisfy your craving for forgetfulness from this raw and uncaring market.

On reaching his plane seat a man is surprised to see a parrot
strapped in next to him. He asks the stewardess for a coffee where
upon the parrot squawks "and get me a whiskey you cow " The
stewardess, flustered, brings back a whiskey for the parrot and
forgets the coffee.

When this omission is pointed out to her the parrot drains its glass
and bawls "and get me another whiskey you bitch" Quite upset, the girl
comes back shaking with another whiskey but still no coffee.

Unaccustomed to such slackness the man tries the parrot's approach
"I've asked you twice for a coffee, go and get it now or I'll give you
a slap".

Next moment both he and the parrot have been wrenched up and thrown
out of the emergency exit by two burly stewards. Plunging downwards
the parrot turns to him and says

"for someone who can't fly you're a cheeky bastard "

(Tue Aug 05 1997 15:14)
in sack-o-tomatoes
General: Found the Vollmer's site. But what's the url for Bower's? I'll trade 'ya: and

On a poster brought by Dr. Tom Berger to the Gunsite Reunion, we read the following:

"Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to hide the bodies of those people I had to kill because they pissed me off."
In the same vein, I once saw a bumpersticker that read:

"The more people I meet, the more bullets I need."
"A cooling-off period for handgun purchases requires a number of unlikely assumptions in order to work. First, the potential murderer - denied a
handgun immediately - must then decide not to buy a rifle or a shotgun, which the Brady Bill will allow him to do. Then he must not know how to buy
a handgun on the black market, or how to obtain one from friends, relatives or acquaintances. In addition, the type of murder he intends must not be
one for which readily available alternative weapons, such as knives, automobiles, or bare hands, will work. Finally, the person who was literally ready
to commit a murder on Day One of the waiting period must calm down by Day Seven and stay calm from that day forward."

David B. Kopel, in Policy Review

(Tue Aug 05 1997 15:33)
electricity crash
Who cares: your comment about "Over 400% in ten years. That's got to be
on a par with today's high-tech stocks." Not even close! Just in the last
year ( ONE year ) Dell 700% Intel 400% IBM, Compaq, Netscape, AOL all of
them 300+%.
400% in ten years is nothing spectacular in this high-tech bull craziness

(Tue Aug 05 1997 15:45)
@ I Survived:
Looks like their setting this up for a close on the low day for the XAU and HUI Indexes. 20 minutes to go. ...The library was "invaded" by about 100 youngsters and their parents followed by a 6 foot 300 lb "Clo the Cow". ( young children's program ) . I fled back to the house and the telebroker option. All is clear now. What I have to do for the cause!! : )

(Tue Aug 05 1997 15:50)
@ Great Buying Opportunity:
According to the DBC quote: Dec Gold was up 3.60 from its low!!!! Is that correct???

(Tue Aug 05 1997 15:58)
to ron
bowers board is WWW.SUBGUNS.COM

(Tue Aug 05 1997 15:59)
Spud Master - We agree.

General - Answers to your questions:

1 ) Yes, but not Class III ( ATF is enough of a pain with Class I )
2 ) When the hard core arent buying and youre holding onto a LOT of expensive, depreciating metal ( !!!! )
3 ) Yes - way more than I need to ( !!!!! ) So many toys, so little money

Ive been thinking of making a Class III purchase, so if I may ask: How much time is it taking, and what are the current Fed license fees? Did your local CLEO give you a hassle? You dont have to answer open air; use my net name above... : )

(Tue Aug 05 1997 16:07)
Thanks Tort...That was a good n......Tarnished:What the hell ya doin here??? Will go check da mail!....XAU down 2.17

(Tue Aug 05 1997 16:22)
I love parrots
Tort - The Parrot. Please file it, to be included in your book, "The Best of Tort".

(Tue Aug 05 1997 16:25)
To hedge or not to hedge?
RJ - Would appreciate your response to John Disney's earlier post. Need to reconcile his info re: S. Afica forward selling with yours.

George Cole
(Tue Aug 05 1997 16:26)
in Florida
KORODNY: I've said it to Mooney and I say it to you -- we are on the same wavelenght! The fact that bullion managed to regain almost half its worst loss supports your case.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 17:00)
George S. COLE: I'd be interested in your take in the total lack of fear in the equity markets and the love affair with high tech stocks. I work for one of the world's largest computer companies. Most of the managers I speak with have been selling stock with both hands while their neighbors and gardeners have been buying it all up.

John Disney
(Tue Aug 05 1997 17:22)
for DJ
The RJ post on RSA hedging was confusing to me - was
it RJ talking to RJ?? Ive checked the implication that
the RSA mines are locked in at some low price with two
good local sources. I believe the implication is
It rather sounds as if it came to some young trader
perhaps in a dream or maybe while he was dozing off in
the bath tub.
As I understand it, Implats sells a lot of pgm to GM
at the average of the prior few months spot prices ( maybe
six months maybe less ) - the rusplat group has no reason
to hedge - as best I can figure their costs are in the
order of 250$/oz ( with the exception of lebowa who are
higher cost but still dont hedge ) .
If they have done a deal with Japan - ( I find it strange
as I had assumed they normally market through Johnson-
Mathey ) - it would have been very recent and at a high price
with high annual escalations.
For info, northam plats has moved from 2 to 3 in the
last 3 weeks. Leplat went from 2.8 to a high of 5 in
the last 3 months. ( these are 2 high cost highly geared
mines ) .
Rusplat and pp-rust are up about 15 % .However, Implats
has hardly moved and I think it is the best play around
now in the pgm sector.

George Cole
(Tue Aug 05 1997 17:31)
stock market
KORODY: It's not just the high tech stocks. Banks, brokerages. and energy service also have risen to truly absurd valuations. And energy service has managed to do this with flat oil prices.

When the rug is pulled out, the insiders as usual will have converted their stocks to cash and the eager mutual fund investors will be left holding the bag. That said, this move still seems to have further upside. This is especially true for small caps, which have lagged badly these past two years, but are now starting to play catch up.

Gold's day in the sun is getting close. And the higher stocks go today, the higher gold goes tomorrow. The mergers, consolidations, hedge reductions, and improved efficiencies this slump is forcing on the gold miners will benefit their shareholders tremendously when bear turns to bull.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 17:46)
Tort, sorry, I just can't resist
Your joke reminded me of this one:

It seems there was this jealous travelling salesman who had a very lovey
wife. He did not want her to be home alone, so he decided to buy her a
talking parrot to keep her company.

At the pet store there was only one parrot and the owner
would not sell the parrot because he had no legs.

"How does he stay on the perch?" asked the Travelling man.

"He wraps his penis around it." said the pet shop owner.

"Thats OK as long as he can talk." said the Salesman.

"Oh, he talks very well." assured the owner.

Satisfied the salesman took the bird home to his wife and soon after
went on a sales trip. When he got home, he talked to the parrot and
asked him: "How was it while I was away?"

"Everything was fine, until the man from
next door came over." said the parrot.

"Oh, what happened?" asked the salesman.

"Well they had a dinner, and then sat down on the couch." said the

"What happened next?" asked the salesman.

"They moved in close together"


"Then he put his arm around her"


"He put his hand on her knee"


"He moved his hand under her dress"

"After that?"

"Well I don't know," said the parrot
"because I fell off my perch,
hit my head and got knocked out."


General: Thanks.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 18:03)
Just stating the facts and you interpret!!!

Around 12:00 ( Noon NY Time ) today a fund came in and bought 2000 July98 $3.50 silver puts for $0.05 each.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 18:11)

Maybe they have the inside track on digital silverware.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 18:18)

Just wondering: Does Barry Switzer post here? Is he "gunrunner"?

(Tue Aug 05 1997 18:18)
@ in hiding
Ve haf in Russia Wodka salzman mak long trip. Think vife haf fren wisit ven is trip, but not sure. How find out? Vife veigh 100 kg, get sak potato vat iz 100 kg. Put sak on bed. On spring for bed tie string and vit bolt attach. Is put 1 kup kream under bed, put sak on bed, mak mark on string how far in kream dip ven sak on bed. Then go trip, sell wodka.

Two veek later is home. Is look under bed see how far is mark on string.
Know vat find? Is find 1 cup butter.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 18:25)
N. Korea Pledges to Honor 1953 Truce
Stomach bone connected to brain bone:

(Tue Aug 05 1997 18:34)
Gold is down. It's time to buy some Vista Gold Corp.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 18:52)
John Disney - First, re: RJ posting to RJ, this was me. I corrected this 2 posts later, but you must not have seen this.

I'm not sure you saw RJ's original post. He reported that during a meeting he had with the Platinum Guild International, they told him that most of the next 5-years platinum production from S. Africa was sold forward to the Japanese. He said the selling prices were "not inflexible", but I interpreted his report to mean that these mines could not fully benefit from the higher pgm prices.

Your comments make sense to me, so perhaps I interpreted RJ's report incorrectly. In any case, I hope you are right, as I have already taken a position in RSA platinum, both Rusplats and Implats. Would very much appreciate any news you might have on a continuing basis, as it seems very hard to get anything directly from the companies, and there is next to nothing on the web.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 19:08)
Dow/Gold Ratio 25.47, 1966 all time high 28.61

(Tue Aug 05 1997 19:23)
Korean bad check rate hits 15 year high.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 19:35)
Deep discounts on Korean automobiles as bankruptcy looms.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 19:44)
Prediction for 10,000 Korean business bankruptcies.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 19:52)
@ Not Broken Yet:
The 5 week uptrend line ( includes this week ) starting with the lst week of July for the XAU Index has NOT been broken. ( includes today's action ) .

(Tue Aug 05 1997 19:58)
Looks like everyone is too busylicking their wounds tonight to post, except for Donald. Nurse, more painkillers please and my plasma bottle is getting low! NURSE! Doggone cheap HMO's!

(Tue Aug 05 1997 19:59)
Glenn, who sold the fund those silver puts?

(Tue Aug 05 1997 20:01)
IMF takes control of Thai economy.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 20:06)

Goldbugs need some cheering up and this will creat a smile..:D

This was Kurt Vonnegut's commencement address at MIT.
Ladies and gentlemen of the class of '97:

Wear sunscreen.

If I could offer you only one tip for the future, sunscreen
would be it. The long-term benefits of sunscreen have been
proved by scientists, whereas the rest of my advice has no
basis more reliable than my own meandering experience. I will
dispense this advice now.

Enjoy the power and beauty of your youth. Oh, never mind.
You will not understand the power and beauty of your youth
until they've faded. But trust me, in 20 years, you'll look
back at photos of yourself and recall in a way you can't grasp
now how much possibility lay before you and how fabulous you
really looked. You are not as fat as you imagine.

Don't worry about the future. Or worry, but know that worrying
is as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by chewing
bubble gum. The real troubles in your life are apt to be things that
never crossed your worried mind, the kind that blindside you at 4 pm
on some idle Tuesday.

Do one thing every day that scares you.


Don't be reckless with other people's hearts. Don't put up with
people who are reckless with yours.


Don't waste your time on jealousy. Sometimes you're ahead,
sometimes you're behind. The race is long and, in the end,
it's only with yourself.

Remember compliments you receive. Forget the insults. If you
succeed in doing this, tell me how.

Keep your old love letters. Throw away your old bank statements.


Don't feel guilty if you don't know what you want to do with
your life. The most interesting people I know didn't know at
22 what they wanted to do with their lives. Some of the most
interesting 40-year-olds I know still don't.

Get plenty of calcium. Be kind to your knees. You'll miss them
when they're gone.

Maybe you'll marry, maybe you won't. Maybe you'll have children,
maybe you won't. Maybe you'll divorce at 40, maybe you'll dance
the funky chicken on your 75th wedding anniversary. Whatever you
do, don't congratulate yourself too much, or berate yourself
either. Your choices are half chance. So are everybody else's.

Enjoy your body. Use it every way you can. Don't be afraid of
it or of what other people think of it. It's the greatest
instrument you'll ever own.

Dance, even if you have nowhere to do it but your living room.

Read the directions, even if you don't follow them.

Do not read beauty magazines. They will only make you feel ugly.

Get to know your parents. You never know when they'll be gone
for good. Be nice to your siblings. They're your best link to
your past and the people most likely to stick with you in the

Understand that friends come and go, but with a precious few
you should hold on. Work hard to bridge the gaps in geography
and lifestyle, because the older you get, the more you need
the people who knew you when you were young.

Live in New York City once, but leave before it makes you hard.
Live in Northern California once, but leave before it makes you
soft. Travel.

Accept certain inalienable truths: Prices will rise. Politicians
will philander. You, too, will get old. And when you do, you'll
fantasize that when you were young, prices were reasonable,
politicians were noble, and children respected their elders.

Respect your elders.

Don't expect anyone else to support you. Maybe you have a trust
fund. Maybe you'll have a wealthy spouse. But you never know when
either one might run out.

Don't mess too much with your hair or by the time you're 40 it
will look 85.

Be careful whose advice you buy, but be patient with those who
supply it. Advice is a form of nostalgia. Dispensing it is a way
of fishing the past from the disposal, wiping it off, painting
over the ugly parts and recycling it for more than it's worth.

But trust me on the sunscreen.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 20:06)
ROEBEAR: This is typical of a bottom. I am still optomistic for the long haul, getting ready for the big run-up.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 20:10)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Alright, which one of you guys bought 3,450 Dec340 calls and 700 Apr340 calls today, hmmmm?

(Tue Aug 05 1997 20:19)
Russian gold mining results for 1995 by region.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 20:27)
@ christmas
the best just got better! the platinum and palladium charts are
great Bart.
Within a year micropayments on the web seem a possibility - 10 cent
or whatever debit when you visit a site.
Thanx Roebear and GVC for the info on the Xau, just have
to track down some info on P/e's and the Hui now. The Xau
looks pretty heavily hedged, hard to say without more research.
There must be some secret research reports floating around
on silver, maybe indicating indian supplies coming on to
the market? Will be released in due time no doubt when the researchers
attempt to induce their prophecies.
really regretting being out of the whites, but as I understand
it, the west may be short while the russians may be long,
starting to look very unpredictable despite an upward trend,
especially as the Russians are likely to be taking personal
futures positions, hard to lose if you can control the release
of the metal onto the markets. think things may get so chronic that
the strategic stockpiles will be severely tapped into.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 20:28)
all that glitters
Hey, NOTAGOLDBUG. I can't see any reason for your postings. You may be on the wrong site! Sunscreen anyone!

(Tue Aug 05 1997 20:34)
Bart charts
Bart - My thanks as well for the PL and PA charts. I couldn't find good spot prices anywhere. Only one last request. Would you please make the gold chart go up? A lot? I think it has a leak somewhere that needs to be fixed.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 20:47)
Hi everyone! I just gotta hit the lotto so I can quit my day job and hang out here all day. For you copper enthusiasts, here's an article from Hong Kong saying China is boosting copper production and the price will be falling over the next couple years.

Jiangxi Copper lifts profit to $214m

By Patricia Kuo

CHINA'S largest copper cathode producer Jiangxi Copper posted an interim net profit of 230.11 million yuan ( HK$214.9 million ) on turnover of 1.48 billion yuan.

Earnings per share stood at 0.125 yuan.

The company recorded net profit of 211.8 million yuan last year, compared to 417 million yuan in 1995.

In June, the company said it had completed procedures to boost its capacity to 150,000 tonnes from 120,000 tonnes this year.

It produced 116,547 of copper cathode last year and its Guiye brand copper is the only Grade A copper produced in China registered with the London Metal Exchange.

Its Phase II project in Guixi, Jiangxi province, will be completed by 1999 and raise copper cathode production to 200,000 tonnes a year by 2000.

According to a research report from Tai Fook Securities, net profit of the company is expected to grow by 126 per cent to 479 million yuan this year due to increase in copper price to an average of US$1.17 ( HK$9.13 ) per pound this year, reduction of cash costs in copper production, stronger balance sheet and tax advantage.

However, copper price is expected to fall next year and in 1999 with looming over-supply problem.

The net profit is projected to grow by 13 per cent in 1998.


ChinaLocalFeaturesHK StocksExchange RateMutual FundsBusinessNews

(Tue Aug 05 1997 20:49)
all that glitters
Without gold we fold. Get ready to break out the champagne all you goldbugs it's party time. Kiss paper goodbye and bring on the gold. Final count down near. Step off shorts the bugs coming through.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 20:54)
Here's a cute quote from Russia Today:

Quoteworthy: "We won't have to do so much math." -- A young Muscovite, commenting on the government's plan to redenominate the ruble. The new banknotes, to be introduced next year, will drop three zeros.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 21:01)
New Russian Currency
I'm usually pretty good at snooping around the world press and seeing trends before they start. I just came across this article in Russia Today that looks like "everyday" news about the new ruble coming on board. There is much to be read into this article. Read about how a loaf of bread now costs 10,000 times more than it did a few years ago!

(Tue Aug 05 1997 21:01)
Ted and all,
SILL DOWN!317.65 PER OZ NOW!try this:

(Tue Aug 05 1997 21:05)
as if a new ruble wasn't enough
Even the once vaunted Russian military is just about down the tubes. This could bode ill for such a large gold producer.......

(Tue Aug 05 1997 21:06)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Only for viewers with a STRONG heart!

(Tue Aug 05 1997 21:18)
Schippi: Now you tell me.======^=======^============================. Suggest you don't look at JIN's 21:01 post also

(Tue Aug 05 1997 21:19)
I think this is BIG BAD BEAR news folks. No more goldilocks economy.

Japan: Record fall in life sector


By Gillian Tett in Tokyo

Japan's 44 life assurance companies lost a record 3,361bn ( $28.4bn )
worth of business in May, as individual policyholders suddenly lost
confidence in the sector and started to cancel their policies.

The decline came after Nissan Mutual, a medium-sized life assurer,
collapsed with losses of more than 300bn in April - the first such failure in
Japan since the second world war.

The fall in business will fuel fears that Nissan Mutual's failure will have a
knock-on effect across Japan's huge life assurance sector.

These fears have been further exacerbated by new proposals to force
Nissan Mutual's policyholders to shoulder some 100bn worth of losses
by accepting lower benefits on their assurance policies.

This would be the first time the Japanese public had been forced to accept
a loss from a business failure.

Although Japan has seen a series of banking and other failures in recent
years, the public has hitherto been protected by government and industry
bail-out schemes.

Mr Andrew Smithers, an independent economist, said: "The extent of the
losses suffered by policy holders could lead to a collapse in confidence in
other weak companies - and further bankruptcies."

The proposals to cut policyholders' guaranteed premiums emerged last
week, when the Japanese life insurance industry submitted a plan to
establish a new company, Aoba, to take over Nissan Mutual's

Under the plan, the rest of the industry would contribute about 200bn to
cover the losses, while individual policy holders would contribute about
100bn by accepting a cut in the amount of money that will be paid on
their pension policies.

The degree to which policyholders would be affected varies significantly
between contracts.

The hardest-hit would be the holders of a pension policy designed for

Japanese individuals who bought those policies in 1988 could see 42 per
cent of the face value of their pensions wiped out, according to calculations
by Mr Smithers.

Nissan Mutual has asked its 1.2m policyholders to vote on the plan before
the end of August. If more than 10 per cent reject it, the plan will collapse.

Some policyholders have formed a group to fight the scheme and are
threatening legal action against Nissan Mutual.

However, the life assurance industry has warned that if the plan collapses,
all pension money will be frozen.

Nissan Mutual has also implemented severe financial penalties for any
policyholders who try to withdraw their money.

Nevertheless, data from the Life Insurance Industry of Japan showed that
cancellations across the industry by individuals were 20 per cent higher in
May than a year earlier.

New business fell 10 per cent. Consequently, the total value of individual
policies dropped from 1,497,000bn to 1,494,000bn in the month.

This fall, the largest ever, is in sharp contrast to the pattern seen in recent
years, when the amount of money in the life assurance industry had been
on a sharply upward trend.

A spokesman for the sector said: "This is a sign that individuals are shifting
money from the life assurance industry to other groups."

(Tue Aug 05 1997 21:25)
What's going on here?
I've confirmed the sale on COMEX today of 3,570 Dec $340 gold calls at $230 each, and 700 Apr $340 calls at $560 each, by using Lind-Waldock Online ( see also, but be patient, it's slow tonight ) . Isn't this kind of trade, obviously made by a BIG player, VERY, VERY bullish all by itself, since funds and producers are usually right about where the mkt is going? What am I missing?

Second, it looks like the fund Glenn told us about did manage to get 1,150 of those 2,000 silver puts.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 21:26)
That Japanese life insurance story is the worst news I have posted since I found the Kitco site. How can this kind of news possibly be ignored by the gold market? The stock market?

(Tue Aug 05 1997 21:26)
Gold made a low on July 7 at 314.6 basis the front month contract ( Aug. ) right off a Gann line drawn from the 1976 lows on a weekly chart. This week that line has moved up to 316. A weekly close below 316-314 would project down to 295 - 300.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 21:26)
Hi JIN!...Just got online and I see EBN Gold is down 3 dollars and silver is down 3 cents....Looks like we may be at 313 SOON....and maybe I'll get that buying opportunity I've been waiting for....

(Tue Aug 05 1997 21:27)
@ A Billion Here, A Billion There:
Donald: Hey, maybe IMF can also take over Japan also. ...lets see "42 percent of the face value of their pensions wiped out..." This is getting interesting..

(Tue Aug 05 1997 21:29)
@The Kitco Bar And Grill

Good evening fellow Kitcoites. Well, we are at THREE-TWO-ZERO. I will shift more assets into the gold sector again tomorrow. If we do go to $600 to $800 Gold in the next 2 years, it makes sense to get in at this level, IMHO. Good luck and good fortune!

(Tue Aug 05 1997 21:33)
BYRON: Shutting down until T-Storm passes. See you later.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 21:46)
all that glitters
Get ready... get set.... go..... for gold while it's still around. The world around us is starting to get ugly, real ugly and we hav'nt seen nothing yet. The chickens are coming home to roost.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 21:54)
@ Bouncing Off The Bottom:
JIN: only down $2.10. You must be buying!!! : ) ....Donald: That ain't Thunder Storms... Its the Financial Gods Rumbling. Distant thunder from Japan??

(Tue Aug 05 1997 22:00)
all that glitters
My prediction. Gold will explode off the low made on July 7th after testing that level in the near by contracts and then watch out shorts. The fireworks have just begun."79" will be history as gold melts up over the old high as the world finally recognizes gold after all has a place in the investment community.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 22:11)
goldfinger - That is the dream that many here share, but is this imminent? I gotta know for sure with at least three months warning as that is about how long it takes to sell AND close out my properties.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 22:12)
all that glitters
For those of you waiting for $250 gold it won't happen unless the stock market collapses to 2000 on the DOW. Either gold goes up or everything is going to pieces around us. A major financial casualty is just around the corner unless something straightens up.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 22:19)
all that glitters
Mooney, why would you sell your properties, as in real estate. I think this will spill over into real estate in a positive way. Gold will lead the way for hard assets up or down over a few years from now.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 22:19)
ALL - With all the camraderie and banter, let's not lose sight of our purpose here, which, in case anyone has forgotten, is to increase our bulse ( package/purse of gold dust ) . When APH is kind enough to give warning ( such as 21:26 ) take careful notes.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 22:19)
Can anyone post a 'minute' chart on GCZ7 today??
Pleeeze...or isn't there an URL?


(Tue Aug 05 1997 22:29)
Glenn re:18:03; What better way than that to protect the eventual purchase of 2000 contracts of silver outright. This month will probably witness a bullish monthly key reversal when the buying begins at new lows after panic sales.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 22:29)
Thanks goldfinger. I agree and predicted here about a year ago ( when asked by aurophile ) that real estate had gone through a deflation in the early 90's and was now set to soar with inflation in the hard assets over the next few years ( 3-10 at least ) . I was half joking about selling, but, at the same time, I believe that when gold and silver take off the profits ( percentage-wise ) will be enormous and it might not be a bad idea to sell property, quintuple the cash playing the metals, and then buy back more property as it will only just be starting upwards and have a long way to go. :- )

John N.
(Tue Aug 05 1997 22:38)
Retiarivs. Sic transit gloria Nipponensis.

Will that Nissan Insurance item prove to be a "whiff of grape shot" for the populace of Japan? If so, we need one such among the charging, frenzied bulls here in North American in the worst way.

Let's see if there is any real press coverage here about how reality has arrived in Japan.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 22:42)
all that glitters
Mooney, let's face it nobody could jungle assets that quick and if you could you would end up being wrong. I personally think real estate is a great investment and should held for the next 3 years anyway until the top nears. There again depends if the properties have already gone way up in value recently. Of coarse location is extremely important and if the potential is there for further gains.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 22:46)
Mooney -- In tonights edition of The Nightly Business Report, Paul Kanga made reference to a feature that will be done on tomorrows program. It is about using real estate as a hedge against inflation.

Now, pardon me, but if everyone is so convinced that inflation is dead, why all the talk about hedging against it? Could it be, that reality of a strong Dollar is sinking in? What happens when the Dollar weakens??

(Tue Aug 05 1997 22:47)
Dec gold
EB : Go

(Tue Aug 05 1997 22:48)
@ One Minute At A Time:
EB: Best I can do posting from a "text" only computer at the library is to go to Type in the symbol in the quote box and next click on the black down arrow. Various option include 1 and 5 minute charts, etc. Hope that helps.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 22:50)
EBN Gold down 2.15 and Silver down 4 cents...Good night ALL....

(Tue Aug 05 1997 22:55)
George, Ted, - I left just after my post this aft. George, Thanks for update, I missed all weekend ( 3Dayer up here ) at the cottage. Still catching up. If second shoe drops could get as ugly as APH predicts, BUT it will be the mother of all buying opportunities! Ted - One day I'll relate how I almost did myself in, same as you, off of Key West on a Christmas Eve no less!

(Tue Aug 05 1997 23:03)
Panda - Inflation on the way - no doubts ( Sorry Steve! ) .
goldfinger - Just to make sure you know what most others here already do; when you speak with me you are speaking with a biased person. I have been a full time real estate salesperson in Toronto, Canada for over 16 years now. I sure don't need no convincin' that land ( hopefully with some rental income ) is a fantastic long-term investment. Good as Gold! :- )

Lan Man
(Tue Aug 05 1997 23:06)
@Closing Bell
COMEX gold and silver futures ended sharply lower Tuesday, but
platinum group metals ( PGM ) futures held up well with new contract
highs in platinum and palladium ended up by the daily limit for the
third straight day.

"We think gold is going lower," Chicago Corp's COMEX floor trader
Carlos Perez-Santalla said. "U.S. gold mining companies have
cheaper leaching processes now at less than $200 an ounce which
give them a lot more money in their forward sales and we expect a
lot more of them."

"The health of the equity and bond markets, the lack of any visible
inflation, and the strength of the dollar - you name it, there
isn't anything that points higher for gold," he said.

The U.S. dollar climbed to new seven year highs against the
deutschmark Tuesday and new seven year highs on its trade weighted

COMEX silver was even weaker than gold. "I see no fundamental
justification for the recent rally in silver, and we failed at
resistance near the 40-day moving average today, and then the key
support around $4.40 failed also," Merrill Lynch's commodity
research director, Bill O'Neill said.

Earlier TOCOM palladium futures went limit up for the fifth
straight session in Tokyo overnight.

No further Russian shipments of platinum group metals ( PGMs ) are
expected in Japan under the annual supply contract until around
August 10, and offerings by Russia in the spot market are not
meeting pent up demand, traders said.

COMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.

Aug97 323.00 323.70 317.00 320.40 _3.50 414.50 314.60
Oct97 325.20 325.70 319.00 322.50 _3.50 426.50 316.80
Dec97 327.30 327.60 321.00 324.60 _3.50 456.50 318.50
Feb98 329.50 329.50 324.00 326.80 _3.60 424.00 322.50
Apr98 328.60 328.60 328.60 328.80 _3.60 408.40 325.00
Dec98 339.00 339.00 337.40 338.00 _3.70 506.80 334.50
Dec99 351.50 351.50 351.50 352.30 _4.00 506.00 351.00
Est. Sales 16156

COMEX - 5,000 troy oz. _ cents per troy oz.
Sep97 448.00 449.50 429.00 431.50 _19.20 576.00 418.00
Dec97 454.00 456.50 436.00 437.80 _19.40 701.90 424.00
Mar98 464.00 464.00 444.00 444.00 _19.60 573.00 432.00
May98 467.50 467.50 447.50 448.00 _19.60 564.00 437.00
Dec98 482.30 472.00 466.00 462.40 _19.90 752.10 448.50
Est. Sales 8468

NYMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz
Sep97 227.60 227.60 220.00 227.60 +12.00 215.60 128.75
Dec97 219.60 219.60 211.50 219.60 +12.00 207.60 120.25
Est. Sales 666

COMEX - 50 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
Oct97 461.50 463.70 439.50 449.60 _5.60 458.00 355.50
Jan98 454.00 454.00 433.00 439.60 _5.60 447.00 360.00
Est. Sales 3679

(Tue Aug 05 1997 23:06)

The action tonight in the metals is so far fast and furious. The theme seems to be spec selling and commercial buying. First in the Palladium market, someone ( believed to be a spec seller ) came in and sold 6000 contracts on the Tocom. This is the equivalent of about 300000 ounces. A very large load ( ~ 8% of 1 years new mine production ) . The market which closed NY at around a 237 bid for spot sold all the way down to 220. At this point apparently some commercial users stepped to the plate. Last call on Pa was 233 spot. The net effect of this selling barrage has been to lower the price $4. The other interesting point is that there was virtually no covering by the public when Pa was limit down on the Tocom. This market remains extremely bizarre.

In the silver market there has been very good spec selling tonight to the tune of about 1MM ounces. While this is not a big number for London and NY it is for the far east where there are very few silver dealers. It looks as if someone is trying to make a point. This selling appears to have been bought again by commercials.

Finally in the gold market there has been spec selling from all over and like the other markets commercials are doing the buying. At around the 317-318 level there has been producer buying. It appears that at this level there are a fair number of folks who will buy in their hedges. One must also wonder whether this is a prelude to mine closure. At some point it pays just to take the money you have made hedging and close up shop for a while. For an example of this one need only look back at the corn markets last year. When corn hit the $5 level, the ethanol producers sold off their inventories and their hedges and just closed up shop. The shorts will need major cooperation from the central banks if they hope to push this baby much lower for any period of time.

Again today the dollar was a very large factor. Last I looked we were around 119 yen and 188 dm. The currency action is begining to take a toll in the European bond markets. Over the last week or so we have seen a backup in the 10 year rates of almost 40 basis points in the peripheral bonds. It may be that the currency devaluation game is drawing to a close as the bond market vigilantes are voting with their feet.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 23:07)
Wild white action
Check out Bart's new PL and PA charts!! PA down $20 in Asian markets then recovered $13 of this. PL down $20 also, but only recovered $5. Great to be able to see this! Thanks again Bart.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 23:07)!
Goodnight Ted, George, Panda, goldfinger, and ALL.
Oh yeah. Goodnight RJ and Glenn, wherever you might be!

(Tue Aug 05 1997 23:09)
Interest Rate Rise @ Canada, via,(Foreigners')

Interest rates go up....Housing sales go!
Said: CIBC Wood Gundy Economists Avery Shenfeld & Don Mikolich
"Unless Canadian investors replace *FOREIGN* investors *Bailing* out of
Canadian Securities, the dollar will be under *strain* to hold its value"

"With *FOREIGNERS* increasingly selling our dollar as they convert
proceeds from maturing Canadian Bonds into *THEIR OWN CURRENCIES*, any
substantial Canadian dollar strengthing would prove difficult in the
coming year"

Made in Canada, by, Bank of Canada you say, what a pity, eh!

KGB #121
(Tue Aug 05 1997 23:11)
Better he stayz home

KGB: ( 18:18 ) Smart Wodka salzman staize home trinkz goot wodka and vferment 100 kilo potato for mak bad Wodka to szell to vife lovfer; den mak hiz own butter vit sexzy girlfriend.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 23:24)
6pak: I thought the idea was that there will be no new bond issues starting either in '98 or '99 as the deficit is eliminated. Therefore, there will not be any new Canada bonds to buy. What does the Gov need the domestic buyers to buy I wonder. The article didn't say I don't think. Without a deficit to service the dollar should go up, No? No bonds issued and a falling dollar looks like a great deal for the exporters and tax payers --not for the Lexus or Sony buyers maybe.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 23:24)
closing statement
As i see it. Gold does'nt need a reason to go up. Thats why you have buying opportunities. This is one of them. Negitive press I like it. When everyone has sold their hoard the real money is made when all thats left is buyers. The selling is almost exhausted and now the goldbug waits patiently after all these years. Most all goldbugs have already given in. Their's not many of us left. "UNITED WE STAND"

(Tue Aug 05 1997 23:41)
First Albania, now Japan?

(Tue Aug 05 1997 23:44)
@ Operation Grand Slam

Goldfinger @ 23:24-- I couldn't agree more! What about Bonds, US Bonds? Do you expect them to talk or do you expect them to die?

(Tue Aug 05 1997 23:50)
Japanese Insurance Companies

Sometime ago I heard that Japanese Insurers were given government approval to invest up to 5% of their premiums in gold. Maybe, I misunderstood?
I quess when a policy is cancelled, prior premiums may remain with the insurer, as per contracted? If the insured do get their invested money promptly, I hope that they consider gold investments.

(Tue Aug 05 1997 23:51)
Quotes @ Contribution
Take care to sell your horse before he dies
The art of life is passing losses on.
Robert Frost

Politicians have continued to pretend that all was well long after events
provided impressive evidence to the contrary. It is described as:
.............SUSTAINING THE MORALE OF THE PEOPLE..............

C.V. Compton Shaw
(Tue Aug 05 1997 23:57)
Gold and the XAU were at the top of their Bollinger bands and were stochiastically a little over bought today; however, gold is now near the lower end of it's Bollinger Band and, as a result, it is highly unlikely that the current short term rally and upward trend in gold and the XAU is over. Thus, in my opinion, the short term trend for gold and the XAU is still up. For the very long ( monthly ) term, the CCI for gold is at it's extreme lower end with the result that the long term trend for gold will soon turn up, although it still remains in a long term down trend.