Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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Pepino di Cortino
(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:00)
Ey WW isza right

The Gippa guy and dissa Busha guy; they two bigga assaholes, we no lika here in Cortino.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:03)
@Dikie Gephardt
Dickie Gephardt...hahaha...The most dangerous politician in the USA if you overlook Bernie Sanders ( Rep.VERMONT ) for the Kennedy family...they were washed up FIFTY years ago and at least the "old man" knew how to MAKE a buck....not SQUANDER it....Most over-rated family in the USA!..john-john, is the U.S. media groommin em ta be in the big house??? Only took em three tries ta pass his bar exams...And then there's Teddy..."fat boy"...a murderer ( just like OJ ) ....Robert Jr and the baby sitter....hahaha...They care about the "little people" har har har ( as hepcat would say ) ...god bless em....The rapist cousin's name has slipped my mind...but what the

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:04)
WW - It's not that a common people at a common point in history divided
by the Berlin wall failed on one side. It was just poorly mangaged.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:06)
@the scene
WW -- Should I ever wind up on welfare, I shall thank you to my dying day! Between then and then, I will toast you every day as I luxuriate at the beach. What type of beer do you like that I should toast you with, or do you require a nice wine? Whatever, I'll be sure to give you your just due! I would really feel very guilty without at least doing this much for my benefactor!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:11)
Nobody said the Kennedys were perfect. Given the size of the brood no doubt there has to be a few unpleasantries. Their politics are good and in the spirit of the greatest American of this century FDR!!

How about the divorcers/philanderers ( better known as the family values gang ) Ronnie Rayguns/ Newt and Bobbie Dolee HAR HAR. The paragons of virtue HARHAR!!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:12)
Pepita: Buona notte bambina.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:14)
Headphones tightly strapped on.....think I can see them "smoke signals" and the flux is gettin closer...I'm glad yer back dude.....

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:14)
goldfinger: I couldn't agree more.
Your point is well taken. As I stated in an earlier post, I bought myself some "insurance" in the form of some Jun '98 out-of-the-money call options about the time gold was tanking at ~315 . . . I'd hate to be at Disneyworld and see on the evening news that gold closed at 355 . . . !

As the saga unfolds I will be watching and adding to my position if we see a bigger "hit." I'm just afraid that a reversal at this juncture would be somewhat anticlimactic. This is only my opinion, based on 17 years of gold's past performance and my own contrarian views.

Best Regards and Great Trading,


(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:17)
@The scene
WW -- Har and HAR!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:18)
of the BS
WW Surely you mean Theodore R. When FDR came into office there was no place for the economy to go but up. What pulled this country together was WWII. So all you liberals, put a sock in it.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:18)
TED::: Get with it will ya!!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:19)

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:19)
@gone from Vermont
"a few unpleasantries"....RAPE...ADULTRY....MURDER...

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:19)
David @ 23:55
Gold - Fire - Rich
Great offer, David : ) ; ) : )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:20)
WW: If you are so against capital formation, why are you investing to make money? Isn't that a paradox? At what point do you stop earning money, so that you don't become a filthy millionaire? -- $500,000, $750,000, or $990,000? Let me know. Are all millionaires "filthy"? What evidence do you have to support that statement?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:20)
WW: Sometimes I think you might have a clue as to what the problem is, but, if you think that newt and trent are more pro big money and anti little guy than Bobby Rubin, Bill C. and co., you need to do a little thinking. No administration in history has done more to destroy the relative power of wage and salary workers viz a vis "Big Money" than has this Demo gang. As if NAFTA and GATT--compliments of the first Klinton term--- were not enough of a millstone about the neck of the American people, The Slickster is now asking for "fast track" authority to bring the rest of the third world into direct competition with Americans.

This is not said out of any personal interest. I sold my business a few days after Rubin and Slick took over. They've multiplied my net worth, but personal bankruptcies amont the common folks are at an all-time high in the 6th year of an economic expansion.

If you can see a dimes worth of difference between the Republicrats and the other party, you have better eyes than newt and Klinton have. Such a love fest has not been seen along the Potomac since Wilbur and Fanny cavorted thereabouts.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:25)
WW: How does the fact that the government forces me to pay taxes ( under the threat of imprisonment, if I don't ) enhance my individual liberties?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:26)
Oldman: It's Retropublicans and Democraps, please!!!!!!!!!!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:26)
Oldman ( 00:20 ) Spoken with years of wisdom...Bravo!...

Who Cares?
(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:26)
Frames of Referenc4e

Like I said, everyone should adjust their frames of reference:

From inflation ==== deflation, to status quo ===== status no

From Republican ==== Democrat, to statist ===== libertarian

From union ==== company, to free market ==== monopoly. : )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:27)
@The scene
Ted -- Actually and simply, MO POWER! In every war this country has 'experienced', more 'rights' of the people have been relinquished and never 'reclaimed'. NOT that rights are ever lost, as they are NOT given by governments, but the acknowlegment of those rights BY THE PEOPLE become clouded and dusted over and not then seen by THE PEOPLE! Perhaps a lot of it is based upon the people losing their site on WHOM actually conveys the rights upon them!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:29)
Tired: It was the actions FDR that ended the depression not the least of which was ending the Republican pro wealthy tax policies of the 20s along with instituting social and welfare reforms which ( god forbid ) actually helped the American workers and thus their Families ( and I suspect their family values ) . The Conservatives are full of S___ and are basically selfish and against people who work for a living and can use help to increase their std of living. Their policies are anti family values in the same vein as Newt serving divorce papers on his wife while she was in the hospital with cancer/ WHAT A GUY!! Typical Conservative hypocrit!!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:29)
Evening Puetz! offense meant earlier....just defense!...Tomorrow night will be

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:32)
RE: DJ 15:05
I keep hearing 1929 senerio in my sleep after reviewing several postings by many. Comparing 1929 ditto to our day in age is misplaced. We could be entering a very long extended boom cycle which will leave alot of you not behind but eating everyones dust. And it won't be gold dust either. Sure we will have booms and busts, but I sincerely doubt any of you are going to be ahead trying to time it. The big bust may not hit till 2007 and some of you doom and gloomers will be waiting 9 years and in the meantime real estate prices have risen 200 % and the DOW is at 20000. You can lose your shirt trying to time a bust. Diversification is the key. If you want some more insurance buy more gold, but don't bet the farm on 1929 senerio. Anyone banking on that maybe a grave mistake. Sometimes what we learn from history is nothing.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:33)
Hi Eldorado....well said....Have tried to maintain MY rights by kepping my distance......

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:36)
What a great American....and husband....They's all da same dude...

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:39)
of the BS
WW I work for a living. Up at 5:30 AM - Home at 6:00 PM ( 5 days a week ) .
I have a family which I do not plan to destroy ( My wife is a Republican and believes in family values. )

My exwife was a liberal ( she was feminist, believed in abortion, and was a self concerned bitch who ran off with a wealthier man. )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:40)
@THE scene
oldman -- YOU NEED to post here MORE, if I may say! You have it right!

WW -- The Bill of Rights wasn't made FOR the people. It was made FOR the government; that they COULD NOT trespass against US! In all actuality, the people have UNLIMITED rights! Just that they also allow all others the same due regard against harm. Don't give me all your arguments as I know all of them. But this concept comes mainly from Christian concepts. Something mostly unknown in this day and age.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:41)
aurophile:As I told you earlier, men like Ford, Walton, Woolworth, etc, were CREATORS of wealth, as I formerly was. Rubin, Eisner, etc., are GETTERS of wealth, as I now am, without creating anything. Where WW and others have missed it is that there once was a time when the employees of the CREATORS, feeling they should have a bigger slice of the pie, enlisted the help of labor leaders like John L. Lewis and the Democratic Party to help them get a better shake of the dice.

Now the "getters" of wealth are squeezing the creators and their employees for the last shekel, and the Klinton Administration is a wholly-owned subsidiary of that sorry gang. So-called labor leaders, like sweeney and trumka expend much more effort attempting to advance affirmative action, gay rights and open borders than in improving the economic status of their members.

As the Late,Great Sir James said, "The people of the West will catch on, and there better be crocs in the moat when that happens."

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:42)
Goldfinger ( 00:32 ) If I could write ( or type ) I would have said just what YOU did....Three cheers for a voice of reason!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:42)
STEVE: Paying taxes is part of living in an ordered Democratic society!

Oldman: I agree that Clinton is in part pro business and anti labor based on NAFtA and GaTT. But at least he wanted labor/environmental reform include therein. Further the Dems voted net against Nafta and Clinton NEEDED NEWT ( sleaze ball ) and Dol to get it through. At the end of the day it is the Republicans that are ferociously against working people and the Dems and to a lesser extent Clinton who look out for their interests. The record shows this. There is nothing even remotely pro worker about the Republican Party and its Leadership! The Dems are clearly on the record less against working people.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:43)
WW: I get MAD when ya call Newt a "sleeze ball".....

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:49)
Tired:: Your first wife sounds like a NEWT sort of Person and not a true Rooseveltian Economic Liberal.

George Cole
(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:49)
Go Teamsters
Shek; 50% in FSAGX, 50% in FSPMX

All: From a purely selfish point of view, GO TEAMSTERS. THE BETTER THEY AND THE LABOR MOVEMENT DO, THE BETTER GOLD WILL DO. One of the reasons i am so bullish on gold is that I agree with Steve Roach that a huge workers' backlash against an utterly ruthless corporate America is about to unfold.

This ruthlessness and fanatiC devotion to the bottom line, no matter what the human cost, has been the key force behind the stock boom. But the upcoming revolt against it will be a key force behind the looming golden spike and stock smash.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:51)
WW: No offense meant, but doyou sork for the Klinton Administration? If you don't, then your ire is grossly misdirected. Newt Gingrich, who has never lifted a finger to stop the destruction of this society which has continued apace for half a century, who claims the "New Age" babblers Alvin and Heidi Toffler as gurus, who helped Klinton saddle the American wage and salary earner with NAFTA and GATT, and who said as recently as last month on CSPAN that he agreed with Klinton "99% of the time" is NOT A RIGHT WINGER. Believe me, I know, 'cause I ARE ONE.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:52)
@New England
LOVE YA COMMENTS GSC!! You hit the nail on the head!!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:57)
OLDMAN: I really dont like Clinton I just think he is better than the Republican alternative. I am really a Gephardt/Kennedy/Bonior/Wellstone fan.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:58)
of the BS
WW- I would say she was more of a Hillary type. But she was better looking and heck of alot better looking legs.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:59)
Goldfinger @ 00:32
Goldfinger, right on, why look at the time frame of 1920-29.
to understand an investment opportunity that could exist today.
Obviously that time frame, is a very gloomy period of history.

An investment opportunity exists right now in 1997.
North American is in a DOOM and GLOOM, BOOMING Business.
Drugs Man, Drugs, Kennedy did well with booze, didn't he ?

Step right up, and get your new, and improved fix, eh! : ) : ) : )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 00:59)
WW: This, and no more. The Klinton Demokraps do not represent working people. The movement in the income distribution tables clearly prove it. The inequality has gotten much more pronounced under the Klintonistas than it did under the Liberals favorite bogeyman, the Gipper. The core constituency of the Democrap Party is a conglomeration of government employees, radical feminists, pushy queers , welfare recipients, and New York Finance Capitalists. Not a worker among them. 'Nuff said.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:00)
@go UPS
You couldn't find a more "union-controlled" area than right here in Cape Breton and the end product is a DESTRUCTION of a culture and a ONCE ( hard to believe ) hard wokin people...It's black+white here!...Two AM on the East coast and even us pigs need some shut-eye...Good night ALL!....and go GOLD and ABX!....even if Peter Munk is one of THEM....nite!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:01)
Hot Damn! Its saturday night. A couple of drinks ...... and the fun begins. .... But after an hour and a half on the phone with my soon to be ex-wife, I think I'll just sit here quietly and dodge the airborne mashed potatoes.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:04)
RE: DONALD 14:40 / ELDO 22:11
The assets of the United States is staggering contrary to the opinion of some. In fact it would be impossible to put a price on it. But lets see now if you add in all the territories, possessions, national parks, military, real estate, gross national product, natural resources, buildings, etc. the valuations would be phenomenal. In fact put a price on our national parks. They are priceless folks. They can't make any, they are irreplaceable. This country has assets no one can buy. Just our natural resources could be worth several trillion. If gold does get going we would benifit most because we own most of it. But this country does have plenty of assets to back our currency. The John Doe public does't have to fork over a nickel.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:07)
OLDMAN:: The problems for working people began with the election of Ronald Reagan. With a Republican Congress trying to destroy working people's gains Clinton is doing the best that can be expected. He did veto Tort reform which is a benefit to consumers and he has pushed for medical benefits for children and he has led the anti-tobacco crusade.
And how about the Family Medical Leave Act OLDMAN. A great pro working person law ferociously opposed by NEWT!!!

Who Cares?
(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:07)
U.S. assets

I would humbly submit, Mr. Goldfinger, that you have not
personally tried to estimate the actual assets of the U.S.
government. I have. As near as I can estimate, the real
estate holdings do total up to $3-4 trillion ( assuming
the current market price, hardly what I would expect,
assuming a Uncle Sam fire sale ) , which doesn't even come
close to covering $20 trillion in liabilities. Toss in
some buildings, aircraft carriers, etc, if you want to.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:08)
@the scene
oldman -- As you know, I'm for the way old Henry Ford operated: Pay the workers such that they too could by the product! This, in my mind IS the bottom line to this whole industrial complex, where ever it resides! Just SIMPLY THAT! Jeesh, how hard can it be? Will they do that? Have they been doing that? I DON'T think so!. So, how can they expect this 'growth' to continue? NO WAY is it possible, especially as we see our factories move elsewheres, our tax base decline, our homeless rate increase, and all leading to a an increase in the crime rate! The BIG spiral South! Now we are beginning to see the results of these deadend policies! Currency crises? We haven't seen ANYTHING yet! As long as these anti-growth policies exist, I WILL be digging my 'foxhole deeper!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:10)
6pak: An interesting post on Canadian monetary matters. I never miss your stuff.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:14)
One more time
WW: Oh, dear, this is worse than I thought. I'm beginning to think that you really believe in liberalism. Most smart liberals dont really believe it---they just use it to "get ahead". They can't deny the plain fact that they have utterly destroyed virtually everything they have aimed their policies at. Detroit, Miami and D.C. being exhibits 1 through 3. The public schools are numbers 4 through 10.

Yup, to most smart "Liberals", their scheme is for the commoners. They, the elite want no part of it. If they did, they'd sell their homes in the gated communities and move into the ghetto where they could enjoy the fruits of their labors. Klinton, Gore and Jesse Jackson have several things in common, among which is the fact that they ALL sent their kids to Sidwell Friends School, ( cost:$12k/yr ) when the D.C. public schools, spending 10k/pupil/yr were readily available to them. BTW, neither of the three EVER worked a day at an honest job in their entire lives!

goodnite all.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:17)
RE: Who cares
When did you last examine the U.S. assets? I would place a bet in the highest degree you wouldn't have a glue. Please post a value on our national parks and explain how you came up with such a value and if you are qualified in that area of expertise. Is there a replacement cost and where did you get your comp's from? I'll be waiting.

Who Cares?
(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:18)
"Clinton is doing the best that he can?!!!!"

WW: You can't be serious.

If you are indeed serious, I would humbly submit that you
are a victim of monopolization of information, and should
immediately seek out as many different information sources
on the Net as possible. To work with poor and inaccurate
information is to court disaster.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:18)
Eldorado @ 1:08
Should we Canadians consider having a foxhole, and how many are required
per family, and of course, how deep should these foxholes be ???

I should be worried eh !

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:21)
@THE scene
ww -- One question: Do you get remuneration for your liberal/non-sensical/non-sequitar postings here? I do enjoy your gold related ones so much more! And I do thank you for those!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:22)
who cares - I've seen a similar private estimate of federal assets
compiled - real estate, highways, dams, buildings, etc. not amount to
the official outstanding debt...and widening ( depreciation, etc. )
The Republican 'revolution' promised an independent accounting
audit of the entire federal goverment according to FASB standards,
Newt personally pledging as I recall. I'm still waiting, even for
another word of it. I strongly suspect it could not even be performed.
For one thing the enormity, for another, the mess the books are in.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:23)
MILLHOUSE: Thank you for your excellent crystalline response re: Australian vs HK tax/economy etc. Perth residential real estate is slowly starting to turn up, with much more action happening in the 5km radius of Perth city, as in Sydney & Melbourne. Anything for over 50's ( 3 bed/2 bath/no garden ) . Outer metro burbs have struggled for ages. Industrial real estate is certainly strengthening, probably more than commercial at the moment. Driven by Mining Industry needs & slow pick up in farming sector etc.
TAXES: When visiting HK last in 1995, what amazed me is that many of the citizens who earn under certain threshold do not pay income tax at all. I think that is an excellent idea. If those people don't pay tax, they have more money for their own social service needs anyhow. Not to mention the many million of tax returns etc that do not need to processed ( and Govt money wasted on monitoring ) . My father wrote to PM John Howard about that idea just after him winning Govt. I told Dad that he was wasting his time. I know a bit too much about executive govt. BTW, all this baloney about Pauline Hansen being a racist is a smoke screen. She is the manifestation of the Australian tax payers disgust at executive Govt, which is hell bent on creating social division through the welfare system here. People have had enough, & they don't give a hoot about certain rich socialites in HK going on about it. While we are concerned about the effect on tourism, the Hansen phenomenon is a lot bigger than so called racism. The big govt & big media interests are worried because she is now the rallying point for a lot of varied interests who want to blow their destructive program apart. Nothing better than to smear Hansen with the racist deal. Get ready for a new media spin. Hansen & a small entourage of Australians roll up in Japan or some other Asian countries, & demand to purchase some real estate. Obviously they will get knocked back. It would look good on "Sixty Minutes", worldwide. But here, it is almost open slather. While I am not that concerned about foreign ownership, as it is a two way street, the fact of the matter is that many thinking Australians feel powerless with our executive Govt, and are very aware of the stronger Asian economies, & their rules which benefit them, but not us. This is about our inability to implement effective economic policy in a rapidly changing environment. Nothing to do with racism. BTW, I do NOT belong to Hansen's outfit at all.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:24)
Thanks for your comments, but are you bluffing or what? No really! I can't write' at least I didn't think I could.

George Cole
(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:25)
George Wallace
OLDMAN:As George Wallace said in the 1960s -- "There ain't a dime's worth of difference between them."

BTW, what is your take on the markets now?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:25)
OLDMAN:: The problems of the cities have been brought on by social neglect not an activist progressive govt. This is the result of the right wing selfish trend of the last 25 yrs. Get with it see it fer what it is!! Yes I am a Labor loving Liberal Democrat and proud of it!! We are America's Future and Hope once the grey conservative right wing elitist stench is lifted from this potentially progressive land!

Who Cares?
(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:26)
U.S. Assets

Goldfinger - {sigh} If I must. You can go to the World Almanac,
get a listing of the total square miles owned by the Federal
government. You can then, from various commercial sources,
create an average weighed value. Multipy the first by the second.

In 1994, it came out around $3.5 trillion. I doubt it has
changed much.

I would also humbly submit that you have made several errors in
your reasoning -

#1 - if you examine the actual holdings of Uncle Sam, you
will discover that much of it is worthless to the average
person, i.e it is located away from areas where people can
actual earn a living.

#2 - You assume that Uncle Sam will be able to sell it
at market price. If, in fact, Sam is pressed to sell off
assets, the effect on the real estate market would be
interesting, to say the least.

#3 - Anyone actually BUYING land from Uncle Sam would need
a PURPOSE for it. Since they will now have to pay taxes and
upkeep on it.

#4 - A great deal of the land that is "owned" by the Federal
government is now in contention with State governments. I have
examined the actual lawsuits involved, and if they are
settled on the basis of LAW and the CONSTITUTION, the Federal
government will have far fewer assets than even the Almanac

Poor information is a terrible thing to rely on. : )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:26)
goldfinger - there are one thousand billion in a trillion.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:26)
WW: I got it! You're in Academe. Only a Ph.D. would have made your last post. When I went to Akron in the early '60s there were 55,000 hourly tire workers. Before the Gipper ever even gave a tax cut, THEY WERE ALL GONE. And you think the problem started with him! Wake up. Your civilization is crumbling around you. Your jobs are going to the third world, your wages are going in the basement,You cant safely walk your streets, your schools arent fit for human use, you're being invaded by alien hordes whose stated purpose is to rip your country apart and give a large section of it back to Mexico, etc.,etc., and you wax euphoric about the government butting its nose into private affairs to make sure that slackers can get time off from the job.

No employer would refuse leave to a GOOD employee who had a family or medical emergency. Whew! That IS all. Gone.

Who Cares?
(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:30)
U.S. Assets, Redux

You can also check the World Almanac for a rough estimate of
TOTAL assets of the Federal government. Last time I checked,
it was in the neighborhood of $16T or so, but that includes
quite a few things that probably are poor sales items, like
nuclear weapons, combat troops, Congressional interns, Clinton's
memoirs, etc.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:32)
OLDMAN: The problems you speak of are the result of overly pro business anti-labor policies. I AM not in academe I am a practicing Attorney.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:33)
@THE scene
6pak -- IMHO, Get a little bit worried. Sometimes, sh*t can come down hard. Call it 'insurance' if nothing else. I'd LOVE if I never had to depend on it! Hell, I'd LOVE to be ignorant at this point! It's not like I haven't asked, but so far, I find no one that disputes the premise. Therefore...., I find no alternative. What else can I say? If I EVER believe something else, I WILL post it! Until then, I will continue to add 1+1=2 and 2+2=4, etc!

Who Cares?
(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:36)
GodDAMN, but that wa funny

WW is not in acadame, I am. : ) WW is a LAWYER. : )

Oh, man, this was great, it almost split my sides. WW:
I can tell you where great fortune resides...

In being the fellow that imposes an Object-oriented
structure on The Law. : ) And it IS coming, one way or
another. : )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:39)
WW: What a relief! You are a lawyer! And I was starting to believe that you REALLY BELIEVED all that liberal multi-cultural crap. Now that I know better, I can go to bed and sleep well. Goodnite----really.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:42)

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:43)
RE: 01:22
Just as I thought. You failed to supply any reliable information on U.S. assets. I know what a thousand billion is, but is only paper. You can't buy some things no matter how much your willing to spend. Maybe you should think about how much fun you would have if you moved to another planet. My point is this is basicly all we have here on earth is finite. There are no other planets that suit our needs and if there is we'll never see them and our grandchildren after that and so on and so forth won't either.
If what you say is true then go out and find another Grand Canyon for sale or how about Yellowstone National Park or all the Rockies. Good luck in your endevors.

Who Cares?
(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:47)
Goldfinger & the Library

Just as I thought. You dreamed up your justification and
never really examined it. : ) Hey, if I had my almanac, I'd
post the numbers, but I'm sure not going to go out to my
garage at 1 AM in morning and unpack all those boxes.

I imagine you can get the same numbers from the CIA website. : )

Just remember, *I* am not the one betting on Uncle Sam's
assets, ergo it doesn't matter to me if you do an estimate
or not. : )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:49)

They all work for the same cabal and that ain't no bullshit.

Who Cares?
(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:50)
Yosemite is MINE!

Goldfinger - Sir, I have no USE for Yosemite, ergo I have no
interest in purchasing it. : ) I also have no use for an
aircraft carrier, M-1 Abrahms, nerve gas, public housing,
or the "assets" of the Federal government that consist of
long-term payments to various interest groups. : )

Besides, MCA already owns Yosemite. : ) Check it out.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:51)
GSCOLE: Now I know why I quit posting for 6 mos. This dang thing is addictive. Even interferes with your sleep. Market view: Stocks, dollar, and bonds and gold correcting. New highs to come in the first 3 and new lows in the latter. One more run to the top. Keep some powder dry.

WW: A once great man once said that if you werent a socialist at 20, you had no heart. But if you werent a conservative at 40 you had no brain. Maybe you'll grow out of it. Many have---myself included. When I was teaching young skulls full of mush at Cornell, we were visited by the student body presidents of Dartmouth and Brown, for a big pro Viet Cong, Go, Go, Ho rally. They raised their clinched fists and shouted, "Pray for a Soviet America." 25 years later, when they became Sec'y of Labor and head of the Presidents Health Care Task Force, respectively, their financial disclosure forms showed that they had both joined that group you resent so much----They were BOTH MILLIONAIRES!

Thats all for sure. I'll answer anything else later. gone.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:51)
Eldorado @ 1:33
I was joking, hell, shi* will happen, it is a natural happening. : ) : )
I just seen this guy digging a hole, to be on stand by, It caught me
funny. : ) : )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:51)
@THE scene
oldman -- Perhaps you see the futility of talking with a liberal/socialist. They seem to be totally beyond any reasoning powers! Best to simply ignore them and let them babble amongst each other. I must say that there must be a comprehension gene they are lacking! Interestingly enough, when they aren't talking 'politics', they seem to be fairly knowledgable. I know that WW, at least, has been very insightful in these markets! Interestingly so! In THAT regards, I take my hat off!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:54)
goldfinger - chosen to live in spectacular natural beauty all my life.
Northern Minnesota for 30 years, now the Oregon coast for a dozen.
On that value scale it's worth a life - me & mine. We were talking squaring the assets with the liabilities. We know what the liabilities are worth in today's market. The value of the assets, in dollars, was the point.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 01:57)
who cares
Who cares, and I'm suppose to believe The World Almanac and the library. The people doing the research know so much about it and that makes it right. Don't believe everything you read. From reading your postings I doubt if they know anymore than you. Nothing is set in stone and I can't buy that these references are accurate.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:01)
@THE scene
WHAT? -- Someone going to bed when we just now get a GOOD SCENE going? THE BEST we've had going ALL WEEK? Sleep is for tomorrow in THIS case! IMHO!!!!!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:06)
Who cares
What do you think about gold? Lets change coarse. Although it's been fun "who cares".

Who Cares
(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:09)
Goldfinger versus Mr. Bond!

Goldfinger - oh, oh, NOW you're starting to sound like a
"conspiracy theorist". I happily admit that the Almanac
could be wrong. However, it's the best estimate I have,
and even if it's off by 50%, it doesn't change the overall

And, if I were inclined to think the Almanac was wrong,
I would be inclined to think that Uncle Sam has PUMPED up
his asset sheet, not understated it. : )

Regardless of the balance sheet numbers - real estate does
not automatically increase in value. Somebody, somewhere,
must have a PURPOSE for it. A simple analogy - why did
Bill Gates not buy the entire city of Seattle, rather than
settling for a shrimpy 20,000 sq. ft. house? He has NO USE
for it. : )

Have you visited San Simeon? Wait, wait, is that the name?

Dang it, I can't remember now. The Hearst estate just north
of Morro Bay, CA. I mean, it's *really* not that big. Even
if you could get Gates to buy Yosemite, what would he DO with
99% of it, except "rent it out", just like it's being rented
now? : ) It cost Hearst a BUNDLE to build that place, a bundle
to build the dock, ship stuff in. The great majority of
potential buyers just aren't interested in doing something like

I bought a small plot of land this year. I drive 17 miles to
work. I *could* have bought something FIVE times the size,
but I would then have to drive 35 miles per day. Besides,
have you ever OWNED 4 or 5 acres? It's just a pain to keep up,
weeds, fences, driveway, taxes, etc. : )

I believe that the balance sheet argument is hard to defend
as a justification to cover Sam's liabilities. A much better
argument is that he can raise taxes to some breaking point. : )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:17)
oldman -- No doubt they became millionaires becaus of Reagan! HAR! But, thanks for your thoughts on the paper and gold! MUCH appreciated. Kind of echo my own anyway. This paper sh*t ain't quite over yet IMHO. Unfortunately, it'll wind up being a case of 'I wish that hadn't happened' as gold climbs over 2K! So much is going to go out the proverbial window when that happens, and it'll be for 'real'! It may be a nice day for gold but it'll be hell for everything else! One has to be careful for what you wish for!

Who Cares?
(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:17)

My personal opinion about gold -

I believe that sometime in the near future, possible until
2007 as you mentioned, there will be a collapse of leveraged
assets. I suppose I buy Precter's model in general, although
I don't believe it will be that extreme.

I believe that gold will lose less value than most other
assets, I believe that debt will be especially hard hit.

I believe that at some point, gold will make a sharp and
unexpected spike, which will serve to put governments on
notice to either HONOR their PAPER, or suffer the

I believe the HARD decision will be at that time. Do I
sell out at the spike, expecting governments to honor their
paper? What if they don't, after I sell?

What if they DO, but I don't sell? Then I miss the high point.

I'm waiting for this event. I hold about 1/3 of my total
savings in physical coins. I have zero leveraging. I'm
working to have my house completely paid for within the
next five years, leaving me with zero debt.

I think the sharpest pundit to date has been Alfred Malabre,
in his book "Beyond Our Means". I strongly recommend it.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:18)
I think everyone has turned in. Either we are boring the heck out of them or their fast asleep or both. Your postings are great. Keep em coming. Unless the fish start biting I'm out of here.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:19)

I watched the movie "Goldfinger" about a week ago. Strangest thing, I actually found myself cheering for Auric Goldfinger. I think he was really a good person, just misunderstood!

Who Cares
(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:23)

Well, thanks for the compliment. Between you and me, I have
almost a ZERO tolerance for risk. I sure can't see buying
bonds or stocks. I foolishly let myself get suckered in '93
on U.S. bonds and lost several thousand in the '94 selloff.

It sucked. I was really stupid. I should have know better.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:30)
Barron's parallels on Stock Mkt.
JAN: Thanks for your concern re: Richard Russell. Am aware of need for diverse views, hence absorb Kitco heavily. Possibly Russell has lifted his game when you cancelled your subscription. Nothing like changing the spin when the overall game changes. I have learned more about technical indicators from the gurus, more than anything else. But still must advise in light of big picture/reality.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:32)
@THE scene
Auric -- Feds are ALWAYS wrong! That is simply because they are Nazis at heart, whereas the TRUE nature of government officials should be populist/servants of the people. Personally, I think it is time to start strapping on a sidearm to the thigh before one leaves the homestead. Cops are there to pick up the remains; long after the fact of the act! Besides, which Amendment of THE Constitution forbids me to?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:33)
The big buyout

Eldorado: ( 01:08 ) Good post, the CABAL has decided to drive US incomes down and their riches up. Good point, about no material income increases in the developing countries. As they profit both ways -we are shafted. A trench won't help, even a deep one, cause they will try to bury us. Will they succeed?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:37)
I'm in the same camp you are. I too am debt free and will save and invest in several areas of the markets. I like real estate and I think it's ready to make a move north. Also bringing up the fact of being debt free has a great advantage that not many realize. You raise your standard of living and your increase in savings and investment can change your life. In fact even if I thought leveraging would make me alot of money I would'nt do it. I like being able to sleep at night. It serves me well. The money is not worth the agony. Besides how much do you really need to be happy. It's never enough, so I learn to live within my means and thats plenty. Besides try and take care of it all. I firmly believe that debt is a catalyst to unhappyness.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:38)
The big buyout

Eldorado: ( 01:08 ) Good post, the CABAL has decided to
drive US incomes down and their riches up. Good point,
about no material income increases in the developing
countries. As they profit both ways -we are shafted. A
trench won't help, even a deep one, cause they will try
to bury us. Will they succeed?

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:40)
Nightly Business Report:
Commentator Louis Uchitelle On Inflation & The Labor Force

CASSIE SEIFERT: In tonight's commentary, Louis Uchitelle, economics writer for the New York Times, discusses inflation and its relationship to America's labor force.

LOUIS UCHITELLE, COMMENTARY: Inflation, once such a problem for the American economy, is taking quite a beating lately. Global competition, too much industrial capacity, job insecurity, consumer resistance to price increases. All these have combined to keep the inflation rate well below the levels that prevailed just a few years ago. And now a new anti-inflation factor has made a appearance. It is above normal labor force growth. The labor force consists of the 129 million people at work and the nearly 7 million actively seeking jobs. Normally this pool of
workers and job seekers grows by about 1 percent a year, roughly matching the population growth, but over the last 18 months the labor force has grown much more rapidly. Thousands of the new entrants are making a forced transition from welfare to work, but many companies unable
to hire enough people are recruiting among men and woman outside the labor force. Mothers at home raising children for example, ex-prisoners with criminal records and men over 55 lured back from retirement. The above normal labor force growth could continue for the rest of the century, some economist believe. If it does the inflation pressure that often results from labor shortages will be diluted. And that will leave the Federal Reserve with one less justification for raising interest
rate to slow the economy. I'm Louis Uchitelle.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

( c ) 1997 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:52)
More Nightly Business Report
Market Monitor: Eugene Peroni, Jr. Of Janney Montgomery Scott
PAUL KANGAS: My Guest Market Monitor this week is Eugene Peroni Jr., a senior vice president and chief of technical analysis for the Janney Montgomery Scott brokerage, he is based in Philadelphia. He is with us in our New York studio. Welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT Gene.

PERONI: Nice to be back Paul. Thank you.

KANGAS: We know the stock market was ripe for profit taking and we know the bond market is what set it off. But why now? Why today?

PERONI: Well there had been some comments by several Fed officials lately and there indications that the economy was starting to heat up a bit. Also the gold stocks were staring to base and rally a little and I think that caused some concern consternation and as a result we did get this
correction and this move up in the long bond yield.

KANGAS: Well, you know, this time the market didn't snap back like it has on some of these other sell offs. We were down, I think, at worst 212 points. We only rallied back about 50. Is that meaningful?

PERONI: Well it is a little bit when we look at the individual configurations of the Dow Component stocks, especially the Blue Chips. Many have formed some near term topping formations and I think that that is going to keep the market or at least the Dow in a range for a little
while. What we are watching specifically here though is the long bond yield. If that begins to move decisively over 6.7 percent then I think that could stir added selling and possibly dipped as much as 5 percent. If we moved over 7 percent in the long bond yield then we would be looking more on the order of a 9 percent correction from the highs.

KANGAS: So we are talking somewhere around 800 points there.

PERONI: That's true. That could be a worse case, yes.

KANGAS: OK. Now one question I want to ask you Gene as a technical analysis or analyst. A lot of the tremendous power of this market has disrupted normal stock patterns. Chart patterns and so forth. It has almost made a mockery out of some of the old log standing patterns. Has this made technical analysis less useful?

PERONI: Not from our perspective. No. In fact it has made it more useful. We are very much of the momentum orientation so we certainly like to see stocks that are breaking out of formations. Out of consolidation trends and we've had just that. Actually we have had a very orderly advance
here in the manner in which many stocks have backed and filled and then moved up to higher levels is very encouraging here for the longer term.

KANGAS: OK. In defense of your type of analysis ( LAUGHTER ) , obviously Well anyway, last time you were with us, February 21st dial 6931 you were very bullish and you gave us some wonderful stocks, Allegheny Teledyne ( NYSE:ALT ) , Brunswick ( NYSE:BC ) , CVS ( NYSE:CVS ) , Honeywell ( NYSE:HON ) , Lucent ( NYSE:LU ) and Lexmark ( NYSE:LXK ) every one of them a winner. This is the third time in a row you haven't had one clinker that I can
complain about. What do we do with those that I mentioned? Sell any of them.

PERONI: Well to be honest with you I still like them so we rate them as attractive still even at these levels.

KANGAS: How about additions? What would you buy on this weakness? If at all.

PERONI; Well we like the oil stocks here. So we like ARCO ( NYSE:RCM ) and we also like the oil service group and in that regard we Varco ( NYSE:VRC ) symbol VRC. That's a machinery, oil equipment company. It looks very attractive to us. The broadcasting and telecommunications area looks good. We like Clear Channel ( NYSE:CCL ) and also Loral ( NYSE:LOR ) , space and communications and then we like some of the specialty manufacturing companies. A company like Carpenter Technology ( NYSE:CRS ) which is in specialty steel and Cooper Industries ( NYSE:CBE ) also looks good. The symbol there is CBE and we also like some of the aerospace
related companies including a little company Coltech ( NYSE:COT ) . The symbol there is COT and they make equipment and mechanisms for the air craft business.

KANGAS: All right. You know, long time ago I think three visits ago you gave us Clorox ( NYSE:CLX ) at 89. It's about 140 now. Avon ( NYSE:AVP ) products, Procter & Gamble ( NYSE:PG ) , Conseco ( NYSE:CNC ) , Pfizer ( NYSE:PFE ) they are all way up like some of them doubled. Are you taking any profits in these yet?

PERONI: Not quite yet, no. Most are still holding onto their longer term trends and again our orientation really is not only to choose the best short term winners, but also look at the best long term leaders as well and those stocks are still in basis up trends here.

KANGAS: All right. You mentioned gold is making a little move. Is it a big enough move to buy some gold stocks here?

PERONI: I think that for those that want to hedge portfolios it is. Yes. I think that the gold group has bottomed here. There is some further upside but I wouldn't do it as a trading play. I would do it more as an investment longer term play. More as a hedge.

KANGAS: What stock do you like or two stocks maybe?

PERONI: Newmont Mining ( NYSE:NEM ) and Newmont Gold ( NYSE:NGC ) both look
attractive in the gold group.

KANGAS: OK. Thanks very much Dean. It's a pleasure to see you again.

PERONI: I enjoyed it. Thank you Paul.

KANGAS: My Guest Market Monitor, Eugene Peroni Jr., of Janney Montgomery Scott.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

( c ) 1997 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

STEVE'S NOTE: Most stocks generally do well in a powerful bull market!!!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:52)
Guard thy gold ! Good nite all.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:52)
goldfinger -- like they say, debt and sorrow. They also say that the currency forms the basic unit of trust between a people and their goverment. Unstable currencies and States/societies seem to go hand in hand. The Thai regime is rumored to be toppling. The Mexican ruling
party, the PRI is losing grip rapidly.

In the greenback's visit to the Helium Reserve in the early
'Eighties perhaps something else was irrevocably dissipated.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:52)
More Nightly Business Report
Market Monitor: Eugene Peroni, Jr. Of Janney Montgomery Scott
PAUL KANGAS: My Guest Market Monitor this week is Eugene Peroni Jr., a senior vice president and chief of technical analysis for the Janney Montgomery Scott brokerage, he is based in Philadelphia. He is with us in our New York studio. Welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT Gene.

PERONI: Nice to be back Paul. Thank you.

KANGAS: We know the stock market was ripe for profit taking and we know the bond market is what set it off. But why now? Why today?

PERONI: Well there had been some comments by several Fed officials lately and there indications that the economy was starting to heat up a bit. Also the gold stocks were staring to base and rally a little and I think that caused some concern consternation and as a result we did get this
correction and this move up in the long bond yield.

KANGAS: Well, you know, this time the market didn't snap back like it has on some of these other sell offs. We were down, I think, at worst 212 points. We only rallied back about 50. Is that meaningful?

PERONI: Well it is a little bit when we look at the individual configurations of the Dow Component stocks, especially the Blue Chips. Many have formed some near term topping formations and I think that that is going to keep the market or at least the Dow in a range for a little
while. What we are watching specifically here though is the long bond yield. If that begins to move decisively over 6.7 percent then I think that could stir added selling and possibly dipped as much as 5 percent. If we moved over 7 percent in the long bond yield then we would be looking more on the order of a 9 percent correction from the highs.

KANGAS: So we are talking somewhere around 800 points there.

PERONI: That's true. That could be a worse case, yes.

KANGAS: OK. Now one question I want to ask you Gene as a technical analysis or analyst. A lot of the tremendous power of this market has disrupted normal stock patterns. Chart patterns and so forth. It has almost made a mockery out of some of the old log standing patterns. Has this made technical analysis less useful?

PERONI: Not from our perspective. No. In fact it has made it more useful. We are very much of the momentum orientation so we certainly like to see stocks that are breaking out of formations. Out of consolidation trends and we've had just that. Actually we have had a very orderly advance
here in the manner in which many stocks have backed and filled and then moved up to higher levels is very encouraging here for the longer term.

KANGAS: OK. In defense of your type of analysis ( LAUGHTER ) , obviously Well anyway, last time you were with us, February 21st dial 6931 you were very bullish and you gave us some wonderful stocks, Allegheny Teledyne ( NYSE:ALT ) , Brunswick ( NYSE:BC ) , CVS ( NYSE:CVS ) , Honeywell ( NYSE:HON ) , Lucent ( NYSE:LU ) and Lexmark ( NYSE:LXK ) every one of them a winner. This is the third time in a row you haven't had one clinker that I can
complain about. What do we do with those that I mentioned? Sell any of them.

PERONI: Well to be honest with you I still like them so we rate them as attractive still even at these levels.

KANGAS: How about additions? What would you buy on this weakness? If at all.

PERONI; Well we like the oil stocks here. So we like ARCO ( NYSE:RCM ) and we also like the oil service group and in that regard we Varco ( NYSE:VRC ) symbol VRC. That's a machinery, oil equipment company. It looks very attractive to us. The broadcasting and telecommunications area looks good. We like Clear Channel ( NYSE:CCL ) and also Loral ( NYSE:LOR ) , space and communications and then we like some of the specialty manufacturing companies. A company like Carpenter Technology ( NYSE:CRS ) which is in specialty steel and Cooper Industries ( NYSE:CBE ) also looks good. The symbol there is CBE and we also like some of the aerospace
related companies including a little company Coltech ( NYSE:COT ) . The symbol there is COT and they make equipment and mechanisms for the air craft business.

KANGAS: All right. You know, long time ago I think three visits ago you gave us Clorox ( NYSE:CLX ) at 89. It's about 140 now. Avon ( NYSE:AVP ) products, Procter & Gamble ( NYSE:PG ) , Conseco ( NYSE:CNC ) , Pfizer ( NYSE:PFE ) they are all way up like some of them doubled. Are you taking any profits in these yet?

PERONI: Not quite yet, no. Most are still holding onto their longer term trends and again our orientation really is not only to choose the best short term winners, but also look at the best long term leaders as well and those stocks are still in basis up trends here.

KANGAS: All right. You mentioned gold is making a little move. Is it a big enough move to buy some gold stocks here?

PERONI: I think that for those that want to hedge portfolios it is. Yes. I think that the gold group has bottomed here. There is some further upside but I wouldn't do it as a trading play. I would do it more as an investment longer term play. More as a hedge.

KANGAS: What stock do you like or two stocks maybe?

PERONI: Newmont Mining ( NYSE:NEM ) and Newmont Gold ( NYSE:NGC ) both look
attractive in the gold group.

KANGAS: OK. Thanks very much Dean. It's a pleasure to see you again.

PERONI: I enjoyed it. Thank you Paul.

KANGAS: My Guest Market Monitor, Eugene Peroni Jr., of Janney Montgomery Scott.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

( c ) 1997 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

STEVE'S NOTE: Most stocks generally do well in a powerful bull market!!!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:52)
Guard thy gold ! Good nite all.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 02:52)
Jack -- Will THEY succeed? Perhaps for awhile. So much of what 'they' do depends on so many scenarios happening, and so many others not happpening! We really do live in a house of cards where the wind is 'picking up'! You tell me the alternatives. I'd be most happy to hear them!

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 03:08)
More Nightly Business Report
Market Monitor: Eugene Peroni, Jr. Of Janney Montgomery Scott
PAUL KANGAS: My Guest Market Monitor this week is Eugene Peroni Jr., a senior vice president and chief of technical analysis for the Janney Montgomery Scott brokerage, he is based in Philadelphia. He is with us in our New York studio. Welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT Gene.

PERONI: Nice to be back Paul. Thank you.

KANGAS: We know the stock market was ripe for profit taking and we know the bond market is what set it off. But why now? Why today?

PERONI: Well there had been some comments by several Fed officials lately and there indications that the economy was starting to heat up a bit. Also the gold stocks were staring to base and rally a little and I think that caused some concern consternation and as a result we did get this
correction and this move up in the long bond yield.

KANGAS: Well, you know, this time the market didn't snap back like it has on some of these other sell offs. We were down, I think, at worst 212 points. We only rallied back about 50. Is that meaningful?

PERONI: Well it is a little bit when we look at the individual configurations of the Dow Component stocks, especially the Blue Chips. Many have formed some near term topping formations and I think that that is going to keep the market or at least the Dow in a range for a little
while. What we are watching specifically here though is the long bond yield. If that begins to move decisively over 6.7 percent then I think that could stir added selling and possibly dipped as much as 5 percent. If we moved over 7 percent in the long bond yield then we would be looking more on the order of a 9 percent correction from the highs.

KANGAS: So we are talking somewhere around 800 points there.

PERONI: That's true. That could be a worse case, yes.

KANGAS: OK. Now one question I want to ask you Gene as a technical analysis or analyst. A lot of the tremendous power of this market has disrupted normal stock patterns. Chart patterns and so forth. It has almost made a mockery out of some of the old log standing patterns. Has this made technical analysis less useful?

PERONI: Not from our perspective. No. In fact it has made it more useful. We are very much of the momentum orientation so we certainly like to see stocks that are breaking out of formations. Out of consolidation trends and we've had just that. Actually we have had a very orderly advance
here in the manner in which many stocks have backed and filled and then moved up to higher levels is very encouraging here for the longer term.

KANGAS: OK. In defense of your type of analysis ( LAUGHTER ) , obviously Well anyway, last time you were with us, February 21st dial 6931 you were very bullish and you gave us some wonderful stocks, Allegheny Teledyne ( NYSE:ALT ) , Brunswick ( NYSE:BC ) , CVS ( NYSE:CVS ) , Honeywell ( NYSE:HON ) , Lucent ( NYSE:LU ) and Lexmark ( NYSE:LXK ) every one of them a winner. This is the third time in a row you haven't had one clinker that I can
complain about. What do we do with those that I mentioned? Sell any of them.

PERONI: Well to be honest with you I still like them so we rate them as attractive still even at these levels.

KANGAS: How about additions? What would you buy on this weakness? If at all.

PERONI; Well we like the oil stocks here. So we like ARCO ( NYSE:RCM ) and we also like the oil service group and in that regard we Varco ( NYSE:VRC ) symbol VRC. That's a machinery, oil equipment company. It looks very attractive to us. The broadcasting and telecommunications area looks good. We like Clear Channel ( NYSE:CCL ) and also Loral ( NYSE:LOR ) , space and communications and then we like some of the specialty manufacturing companies. A company like Carpenter Technology ( NYSE:CRS ) which is in specialty steel and Cooper Industries ( NYSE:CBE ) also looks good. The symbol there is CBE and we also like some of the aerospace
related companies including a little company Coltech ( NYSE:COT ) . The symbol there is COT and they make equipment and mechanisms for the air craft business.

KANGAS: All right. You know, long time ago I think three visits ago you gave us Clorox ( NYSE:CLX ) at 89. It's about 140 now. Avon ( NYSE:AVP ) products, Procter & Gamble ( NYSE:PG ) , Conseco ( NYSE:CNC ) , Pfizer ( NYSE:PFE ) they are all way up like some of them doubled. Are you taking any profits in these yet?

PERONI: Not quite yet, no. Most are still holding onto their longer term trends and again our orientation really is not only to choose the best short term winners, but also look at the best long term leaders as well and those stocks are still in basis up trends here.

KANGAS: All right. You mentioned gold is making a little move. Is it a big enough move to buy some gold stocks here?

PERONI: I think that for those that want to hedge portfolios it is. Yes. I think that the gold group has bottomed here. There is some further upside but I wouldn't do it as a trading play. I would do it more as an investment longer term play. More as a hedge.

KANGAS: What stock do you like or two stocks maybe?

PERONI: Newmont Mining ( NYSE:NEM ) and Newmont Gold ( NYSE:NGC ) both look
attractive in the gold group.

KANGAS: OK. Thanks very much Dean. It's a pleasure to see you again.

PERONI: I enjoyed it. Thank you Paul.

KANGAS: My Guest Market Monitor, Eugene Peroni Jr., of Janney Montgomery Scott.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

( c ) 1997 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

STEVE'S NOTE: Most stocks generally do well in a powerful bull market!!!

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 03:12)
Apologies all for the triple post. My connect went down for a bit.
BTW, I have far more trouble downloading GOLD EAGLE ( Vronsky etc ) as it seems to be overloaded most of the time, rather than this site. It I can't get onto Kitco, it is usually because the link is down completely somewhere, or EVERYONE is looking at Martian rocks or something.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 03:15)

Randal Forsyth's article in the latest Barrons is the most astute piece of financial journalism I have read in Barrons this year.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 03:20)
@THE scene
Jack -- I'll add this, from my vibes and from my probably limited knowledge of the markets, I am, and will be, adding to my own foxhole! I do NOT like what is happening out there. First, this whole worlds finanacial system is debt based. That is at least strike one against it. I.E., the currency can never be paid back as all of it is first loaned into existence! Second, the people/consumers of the world are not being paid enough to be the consumers of the procuct/produce they make. So, who are these companies to sell to? There rich stock holders? HAR! Besides, much of that is 'imaginary/unrealized' profits anyway. Also in this whole scenario is all the taxation within our system. Can't 'compete' simply on that basis, much less all the others. This is why the 'Elders' had tariffs apportioned at the border; to equalize the effects/costs there. Anymore, its export the jobs. If UPS could do the same, they would! Their trucks however would have some REAL HIGH mileage! Most Americans would also not be able to understand the 'lingo'. The buck will eventually stop for lack of 'interest'. That meaning that there will be not enough employed here to PAY the interest! Interesting that interest could be so 'interesting'! But, that is how investors view it. Interesting! Got a foxhole dug?

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 03:24)
Gotta have them Bank Shares....

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 03:35)
High-tech hiatus
By Ross Greenwood

The Federal Government's new-found fervor for the
information-technology industry is welcome, but about
three years too late. Our neighbors ( rivals for
investment ) have courted large Japanese and United
States companies, which can provide investment,
employment and a base for other high-tech operations.

Australia has been slow on the uptake, despite the
attractions for foreign investors of an affluent,
technically literate community. Prime Minister John
Howard began to understand this after meeting the US Federal Reserve
chairman, Alan Greenspan. But enthusiasm must be backed by action.
Investment, exports and jobs are being lost. An example is highlighted in Sandy Plunkett's Focus article in this week's edition. She rang Andy Grove, chief executive of one of the world's most important technology companies, Intel. Grove confirmed that he has a $10 billion expenditure plan between now and the end of the century, including chip-making plants in our region. He wondered why Australians had not been knocking on his door.

Industry Minister John Moore spent time at Intel on his last trip, but it was an exploratory look into the industry rather than an effort to attract business to Australia. As the Government introduces more initiatives in this area, including its decisions stemming from the Mortimer report, it must realise that Australia is competing for employment and investment in new technology with countries in the region that offer more incentives and understanding.

While Plunkett's report shows where Australia's technology push is lacking, Murray Massey reveals in this week's issue that a Danish company, one of Europe's leading makers of computer memory cards, set up here because of our natural advantages. Memory Card Technology established its headquarters in Brisbane with no government incentives, despite Singapore's offer of a seven-year tax holiday. The managing director of MCT ( Australia ) , Jorgen Christensen, says the company does not always make decisions from a strictly financial point of view. This is not true of most other companies considering big investments in this region.

Christensen has one suggestion for the Government: a free-trade zone in
Australia is essential for freight passing through the country. Australia's import-export processing charge on air freight may force MCT to establish new distribution outlets in Asia.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 03:51)
Message in inflation-linked bonds
By Crispin Wood

In July 1987, the market for inflation-linked bonds was tiny. Not many
investors noticed that the yields on these securities had overtaken the
earnings yields of listed equities. In retrospect, this event was an important stockmarket sell signal and, 10 years on, it is close to being repeated.

Australia now has the world's third-largest market for inflation-linked
securities, behind Britain and the United States.

It may be pure coincidence: conditions in today's equity market
are very different from those of 1987 but it serves to focus attention
on relative asset values. Fund managers worried about a market
correction will look to less volatile assets to provide returns
comparable to equities. Some investment funds are reweighting
into cash, bonds and property.

The gap in real yields between local equities and inflation-linked
bonds has narrowed as a result of the market rally, making bonds a more attractive investment despite the prevailing climate of low inflation. If the stockmarket continues to surge, yields on inflation-linked bonds might overtake equities for the second time. The real yield is expected to be sustained above 5% following recent increases in US bond yields.

But there is no need to panic. Bankers Trust's equity analysts remain bullish on the local sharemarket. Debt-markets analyst Stephen Conrad says: "The actual 1987 experience, although of interest statistically, does not necessarily stand up ... The ( inflation-linked bond ) market was immature, the liquidity wasn't strong." He argues that it is only now, with a more mature market, that a proper statistical correlation between the bonds and equities can be established.

But a BT report in July on the theoretical basis for comparison of equity
and inflation-linked bond yields, by Richard Hartigan and David Rees,
shows that in July 1987 the All Ords earnings yield crossed below real
yields on CPI bonds before bottoming out later in the year. "Given the
relative volatility of equity returns versus inflation-linked bond returns, this should have been a strong equity sell signal," the report says.

Research by Bankers Trust Investment Bank shows that the earnings yields
( the inverse of the price-to-earnings ratio ) of industrial companies tend to closely track the CPI. This means that inflation-linked bonds also tend to track the market indices. In the past four years, there has been an 86% correlation with the All Industrials index and an 84% correlation with the All Ordinaries index. It could be argued that that makes these equity yields "real" yields because, as with inflation-linked bonds, yields adjust for inflation.

However, the report highlights shortcomings in this comparison. The equity yields use historic information - the last publicly released earnings rather than projected earnings. "Another problem is that the price/earnings ratio is subject to extreme plunges in value when equity prices tumble, as occurred in late 1987."

Copyright  1997 BRW Media
This is an extract of an article in Australia's Business Review Weekly magazine.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 03:52)
@THE scene
Aurophile -- I think that for your scenario to develop, UPS workers, as one of many, has to win their benefits. The economy has to become more inflated to continue, and 'THEY' ( the Feds ) must push it in that direction. I believe they have NO choice! In the end, it'll prove to be futile though. Debt based is doomed from the beginning! The only question thereof is the time/timing. Continue to watch the currencies and the competition for 'funding'. BIG key! How else can debt financing work? We saw a big rise in the buck solely because of 'fear' in the Asian currencies. Essentially, we will be seeing 'problems' anywhere and everywhere in order to maintain a 'strong' buck here. HAR! The scenarios will get even more interesting as time goes on IMHO! All for the almighty buck! Of course, it IS the reserve currency of the would. I don't suppose THAT has anything to do with it! If one didn't have to live with this BS, one could really have a GOOD belly laugh over it! Man, is there ever going to be HELL to pay one day!

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 04:04)
If an economist does not believe the "New Era", maybe there will be one?
THE ECONOMIST ( Article in Business Review Weekly - Australia )

Economic cycles just keep rolling
By Don Stammer, chief economist of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Australia.

Last November, The Wall Street Journal ran a front-page story on the
death of the business cycle. A month ago, two United States business
journals carried stories that the business cycle, and the cycle in inflation, were now obsolete because of globalisation and technology. Two weeks ago, the head of the US Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, spoke about the possibility of a run of years in which a wide range of business processes may be re-engineered to make better use of technology. If this were to be the case, he said, the US could be in for a sustained period in which productivity improved and inflation remained low. The interpretation put on Greenspan's carefully chosen words was "it's a new era", or "it's a brave new world".

Anyone close to my age - and I have been around for 27% of European
settlement in Australia - will recall bouts of enthusiasm about the end of the business cycle and about brave new worlds. None of these predictions turned out to be correct. Is it so different this time? In the late 1940s, the supporters of economic planning led the charge. In the 1950s and 1960s the emphasis was on fine tuning through countercyclical changes in fiscal and monetary policy. There were some successes. However, it turned out that, because economic policy operates with long lags, the effects of policy changes were sometimes felt after the economic cycle had turned of its own accord.

Then came monetary targets, mainly in the 1970s and 1980s. Central
banks were encouraged to nominate a preferred rate of growth in the
money supply and, once they regained control over monetary conditions,
to adopt progressively lower targets for growth in the monetary aggregates.

In the 1980s, it was the turn of enthusiasts for deregulation to claim that the cycle in business conditions would be substantially dampened. The market-induced movements in exchange rates and interest rates that would follow deregulation would help to discipline governments and set up a self-adjusting mechanism against swings in the economy.

The chart shows the resilience of the business cycle in Australia. Someone my age is hearing, for at least the fifth time, that this time it is different and the cycle will disappear. There is good reason to remain cynical. Inflation is just sleeping. The cycle in the economy lives on although, like the cycle in inflation, it is now milder and more drawn out. In today's optimistic markets, some investors will read too much into reports of Greenspan's recent comments. It is well to recall his February remark: "History is strewn with visions of such new eras that, in the end, have proven to be a mirage."

Copyright  1997 BRW Media
This is an extract of an article in Australia's Business Review Weekly magazine.

NOTE: I think my uncle, who was Dean of Economics at Uni of NSW, taught this guy.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 04:34)

The wild boy of the weather
By Narelle Hooper

El Nino is a troublesome child. In the years when the warm current moves
south along the Pacific coast of South America, a complex interaction of
ocean currents and atmosphere brings drought to Australia and depresses
the economy. By the time the effect filters through agribusiness, rural
communities and the transport sector, it can wipe off more than 1% of
Australia's gross domestic product.

The same phenomenon causes devastating floods and famine in Peru, Bolivia and Brazil; dries up monsoons in India and South-East Asia; and brings
drought to wipe out crops in South Africa. This year there are forecasts for the strongest El Nino since 1982-83, the century's worst.

This season's worsening El Nino outlook prompted Federal Treasurer Peter
Costello to warn on July 31 that it threatened the Government's estimate of 3.75% economic growth. "It is too early to change the forecasts because timing and distribution of rainfall over the next few weeks will be critical to determining the farm production ultimately achieved," he told economists in Melbourne. Costello's warning highlights the frustrating thing about climate analysis: we can know all the probabilities of climate variations, but a lot is still unknown.

In Australia, the effect on the economy of an El Nino drought is
second only to the state of the US economy. Finance institutions, Treasury and big companies now routinely keep an
eye on the monthly southern oscillation index ( SOI ) , which is an
indicator of the effects of El Nino, or his rare, wet, sister La Nina. Bankers Trust's senior economist David Bassenese estimates that this year's El Nino could wipe $500 million off commodity exports alone, adding about 0.1% to the current account deficit.

In Toowoomba, Queensland, Dr Roger Stone and his colleagues may hold
the key to the behavioral patterns of El Nino. Stone discovered many of the links between El Nino and world weather patterns by looking over global rainfall records. This research has the power to move markets. Stone, principal research scientist with Queensland's Centre for Climate
Applications, and his colleague Graeme Hammer, have developed strategies to help farmers use probability-based information to reduce risks during drought and improve gains in good years. These days, business is also taking advantage of their work. "Nine out of 10 of the calls to me these
days are agribusiness, commodity traders and financial institutions, not
farmers," Stone says.

El Nino affects not just rainfall, but changes the whole climate pattern. It tends to bring higher maximum and lower minimum temperatures and
clearer skies, which has implications for everyone from tourism operators to crop and livestock producers to whitegoods and clothing manufacturers.

El Nino does not automatically mean that crop yields will fall substantially. Even if rainfall is well below average, as long as it comes at the right time there can still be good crops. But it can mean the threat of different pests, or the need to rethink the types of crop, the amount of fertiliser to use or a greater risk of frost.

A string of listed companies affected by the performance of the rural sector are now tracking the SOI. These include the food companies, such as Goodman Fielder and George Weston, for which commodities are the
biggest factor in a swinging costs structure, and milling companies Manildra Group and Defiance-Bunge. Also watching the index is the growing number of listed wine-producing companies.

Wesfarmers and Futuris Corporation, and their stock and station businesses Dalgety and Elders, experience an early pick-up as farmers sell off excess stock, but it slows later in the cycle. Dalgety says it considers the forecasts in its farm financing risk management. Banks and companies dealing in stockfeed, chemicals, fertilisers, farm machinery and veterinary supplies also experience a mixed effect.

The warning signals

The weather effect known as El Nino translates from the Spanish as "the
boy child", a term used by Peruvian fishermen to describe the appearance
every few years around Christmas of a warm current from the equator
pushing down the coasts of Ecuador and Peru. It displaces the upwelling of the cold north-flowing Humboldt current, driving away the fish.

Southern oscillation: One of the reasons Australia is said to be a land of "droughts and flooding rains". It is the see-sawing interrelation of the ocean and the atmosphere pressure, occurring between the broad expanses of the western and the eastern Pacific.

SOI: The southern oscillation index. This shows the strength and phase of
the oscillation by measuring the difference in atmospheric pressure
between Tahiti and Darwin. The system is in equilibrium when the index is
at or near zero, which is the typical situation.

In the positive phase ( La Nina ) , the southern oscillation is associated with stronger Pacific trade winds, warmer seas north of Australia and a higher probability of above-average rainfall in north and south-eastern Australia.

In the negative phase ( El Nino ) , the southern oscillation is associated with stronger than normal warming in the eastern tropical Pacific, usually every three to eight years. The seas in the western tropical Pacific cool and the trade winds slacken, feeding less moisture into the Australia/Asia region.

World weather patterns are altered and there is a higher probability of
below-average rainfall in north-east Australia. The monthly moving
averages, not the weekly or daily readings of the SOI, are the readings to watch.

Copyright  1997 BRW Media
This is an extract of an article in Australia's Business Review Weekly magazine.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 04:41)

Keeping a spy-eye on the harvest
By Narelle Hooper

Knowledge is power and money in the commodities market, and a
running joke is that the United States Department of Agriculture knows
more about the state of Australia's wheat crop than our farmers do. It is an exaggeration, but only just.

For years the US, the world's biggest wheat exporter, has been spying on
the grain crops of Australia and elsewhere; analysing satellite images of its competitors' main grain-growing regions as the crops develop. Adding
historical statistics and daily world climate information, a monthly report on harvest prospects is produced.

The Americans also keep a close watch on India, Europe, South Africa,
Canada and the biggest wheat producer, China, a net importer that watches the US and Australia. Canada closely monitors Australian and American farmers, and probably others. Australia, the world's fourth biggest
exporter, is a competitor everyone likes to watch because it exports about 85% of its crop.

With a strong El Nino pattern developing, Australia's competitors are
watching for any early signs of crop failure that will effect yield and price.

Last year the Australian Wheat Board recruited one of the US Department
of Agriculture's top overseas crop analysts, agronomist Michael Shean. With privatisation looming, the board will depend more than ever on its risk management and market intelligence. Shean's task is to boost the board's forecasting confidence. Shean says that in years of average rainfall, the data is not such a big deal. But in adverse years, when yields plummet and prices can soar, an early warning is of crucial strategic importance. In the 1994 drought, Shean says, the US satellite images of Australia's north-east wheat belt late in July showed the crops were not developing well. It cut its Australian forecasts, at the time appearing to go out on a limb. Ultimately its forecasts were proved close to the mark. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics was forced to revise down its forecasts three times. Shean says those who followed the US Department of Agriculture estimates could take advantage of the market.

Shean has proposed setting up the same sort of monitoring system in
Australia. He says it would take about three years to implement and the
cost would generate huge returns. In the US and Canada, he says, such
research work is government funded and the results are available publicly.

In contrast, Australia's forecasting agency, the Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, is having its budget cut.

Copyright  1997 BRW Media
This is an extract of an article in Australia's Business Review Weekly magazine.

STEVE'S NOTE: Good spin for a grant increase for one of our Govt agencies. Why not just buy the data off the USA direct??

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 04:55)
A TOP ARTICLE!! Suddenly the rich need the poor, & the poor know it!!
Japan-US deal reverses earlier accord

The Malaysian Prime Minister, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, attacks the
currency speculator George Soros for his Malaysian ringgit sell-off. The
Thai economy goes into a free fall, and Thai ministers prepare to apply to the International Monetary Fund for assistance. The Indonesian Foreign
Minister, Ali Alatas, speculates on political motives behind what he calls an assault on South-East Asian currencies.

What is happening? The answer seems to be a deal between the world's
two largest economies: the United States and Japan.

In 1996, world financial markets were on the verge of a meltdown. The
Japanese economy was reeling from the twin effects of sharply falling asset prices and poor returns on capital. The yen had strengthened to 79 against the US dollar, equity markets were one-third off their peak, and property was down two-thirds. There was a fear that the world's largest creditor nation, whose savings were keeping the global system afloat, would begin to implode, triggering a world financial crisis.

A solution had to be found. A deal, which commentators are calling the "reverse Plaza Accord", was struck between US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and Japanese central bankers to weaken the yen sharply. The implications for corporate strategy and capital markets will be profound.

To understand how these imbalances occurred, we have to go back to the
Plaza Accord, the 1985 agreement between the Governments of the G-5
nations to force an appreciation of the yen against the US dollar. The
intention was to rectify the trade imbalance between the two countries by
making US exports more competitive.

The strategy failed completely. The Japan-US trade imbalance remained
virtually unchanged because Japanese corporations proved unexpectedly
flexible, and price was not the only factor in competitiveness. In failing to alter the trade balance, the US had triggered its own economic decline.

However, a decade after the agreement Japanese markets were chronically
overvalued. The chairman of the Pacific Rim Forum, Alan Carroll, says
"The economy was quite literally on the precipice of a deflationary spiral, and all this was occurring within the world's principal creditor - 60% of the world's total net capital exports came from Japan in 1995. A financial implosion of Japan could have easily triggered an unprecedented financial crisis."

Rubin responded by easing the yen. The deal was that the US authorities
would trigger a rise of the greenback, giving Japan an export edge in order to avoid disaster. In return, Japan would help to ease US financing and interest difficulties ( Japan has bought $US120 billion of US Treasury notes in the past two years ) .

The reverse Plaza Accord brought about a 50% drop from the yen's peak
against the US dollar and 35% against the deutschmark. It is likely to have as profound an effect as the 1985 version. In Japan, big corporations have their best balance sheets ever, and the country is taking advantage of more favorable conditions to recapitalise the banking system.

But the same cannot be said for smaller countries in Asia. The
beneficiaries of the initial Plaza Accord were other Asian countries whose currencies were linked to the US dollar. As the yen appreciated, they became more competitive against Japanese exporters. Moreover, they
received investment as Japanese corporations began to release enormous
amounts of capital across the region, taking advantage of lower wages and
avoiding the problems of a surging yen. The phenomenon called "globalisation" was born.

The currency deal is unsustainable in the longer term. Although it has
allowed Japan to ease its financial crisis, it has intensified the
indebtedness of North America: Nafta borrowed $US242 billion in 1996
from the rest of the world, mostly from Japan. The US trade deficit with
Japan is expected to widen by $US450 billion this year.

What seems likely is another surge of investment in Asia as Japan takes
advantage of a temporarily low yen and surging corporate profits. The
effects are likely to be seminal, if only because Japan has the largest
volume of potentially mobile capital. The Japanese economy makes up
18% of world GDP and more than 70% of East Asian GDP. The country's
current account surplus is $US70 billion and its foreign assets exceed
$US800 billion.

However, Australia is not likely to benefit from this. The main purpose for the initial phase of globalisation was to find countries with low wages that offered ways of avoiding the currency misalignments. This time, the motive is to gain access to the large and potentially rapid-growth markets of emerging nations.

This has resulted in a new type of international negotiation. As William
Greider, in his book One World, Ready or Not, comments, national
governments in the emerging markets are trading foreign investment in
their country's industry base in return for access to local markets. Greider says: "Suddenly, it seems, the rich need the poor, and the poor know it.

They do not intend to tolerate another phase of colonialist domination, but hope instead to exploit the insecurities of global enterprises for their own advancement."

Copyright  1997 BRW Media
This is an extract of an article in Australia's Business Review Weekly magazine.

STEVE'S NOTE: I have met Alan Carroll. A smart cookie, & very up with
what is going on in Asia via the Aussie Corporates.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 05:04)
A new spin on Asian productivity.
Paul's view of productivity ( Viewpoint by David James )

Paul Krugman, professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, is perhaps the most effective wet blanket in world economic
debate. Krugman ( Paul to his enemies - he has no friends ) , made his mark
with Peddling Prosperity, in which he attacks the prevailing idea that
countries must be "competitive" in the international arena.

In the book, Krugman points out that what matters is domestic productivity, that improvements in trade tend to have only an incremental effect. To underline the point, he estimates that if world trade were to halve, world income would fall only 2.5%.

He even has a law for what he considers foolish ideas: "Once an
administration has decided to accept a basically bad set of ideas, there is a sort of Gresham's Law in which these bad ideas drive out good ones, even in seemingly unrelated areas."

Not content, he moves on to Asia, arguing that the most dramatic industrial transformation the world has ever seen - both in terms of its speed and staggering extent - is not especially impressive because there has been no rise in productivity.

He says that once increases in the labor force and investment are taken out ( leaving a figure called "total factor productivity" ) , Asian economic
efficiency has not really improved, and unless there is a productivity
improvement Asian growth will stall.

Such economic comparisons tend to be static and ignore considerations
such as: "What might have happened instead." That Asia has managed to
avoid the grim poverty of other industrialising, populous areas of the world ( Africa, South and Central America, the Middle East, and the former Soviet Union represent only about 15% of world GDP while Asia has 27% ) is a stunning achievement.

Nevertheless, Krugman manages to dent some Asian self-confidence. The
former Deputy Prime Minister of Thailand, Supachai Panitchpakdi, says
that Asian leaders once compared their golf scores when they got together.

Thanks to Krugman, they now compare their "total factor productivity".

Now Krugman is at it again. It has recently been popular in US corporate
circles to claim that the huge investment in information technology during the 1980s has begun to pay off. Not to Krugman. He says the rise in productivity per worker in the 1990s is a mere 1%, compared with the 3% achieved annually in the 1950s and 1960s. He dismisses the "new
paradigm" of growth as something that is only popular because it makes
business people feel good about their economic prospects and themselves.

It is common in Asia to attack Krugman as a provocateur looking for
research funds for his university department, but this is a cheap and falsely based attack on the person. He is an impassioned proponent of
productivity, especially the domestic variety. ( On second thoughts, he has at least one friend: me. )

In one sense, his arguments are unassailable, even tautological.
Productivity is a measure that compares inputs and outputs: how much you
get out from how much you put in, divided by the number of people
involved ( and adjusted for other factors like capital investment ) . Because you must go into debt to give yourself something you have not created, productivity is a good pointer to the "real" standard of living.

But its simplicity may be the very problem. Productivity is a word that came into being with the Industrial Revolution and it may be superseded as industrialism runs its course. Consider, for example, the absurdity of the phrase "the productivity of knowledge": the understanding that people get from the understanding they put in, divided by the number of people who understand it.

E-mail address:

Copyright  1997 BRW Media
This is an extract of an article in Australia's Business Review Weekly magazine.

STEVE'S NOTE: I suppose we need a feel good article while the Western economies allow their manufacturing sectors go to the wall for the benefit of low wage countries. It is no accident. Go back to 1973 & re-read the LIMA agreement. Very little happens in the political scene by accident.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 05:19)
DONALD: An article for you.
Burnt by used-car values
By Bill Tuckey ( Australian Motoring journo )

The market is starting to shudder as the phrase "No such thing as a free
lunch" starts to tell on Ford and Holden dealers who started the rush to sell cars on no deposit or low deposit, and with guaranteed buy-back values.

The first Festivas to be assiduously flogged under Ford's Red Carpet
Options scheme are coming back into the dealerships after two years out
there. And in many instances more is owed on them than what they are
worth. The first Barinas to go out later under Holden's similar scheme,
SmartBuy, will soon follow suit, with the same results.

Nobody predicted what would go wrong, but they should have: as buyers
rushed to buy $14,000 small cars ( mainly Korean Hyundais and Daewoos ) ,
used-car prices collapsed. Dealers with quality stock previously regarded as "plums" in the trade - such as the Toyota Corolla, Ford Laser and Mazda 323 - found they could not sell even prime-condition, low-kilometre
vehicles two or three years old at $12,000-15,000.

Why should they, when a young buyer could get a new Festiva or Barina for
little or no deposit, with a long warranty and a guarantee that they could hand it back after two years and walk away? So almost overnight the
dealers found themselves stuck with overvalued stock that had already been bought with the "floor plan" money lent by their financiers. To reduce inventory costs they had to move metal, cutting prices and taking a bath, and the pain swiftly spread throughout Australia.

Dealers and the finance arms, Ford Credit and Holden Financial Services,
set the residuals on the basis of history, mainly Glass's Guide. The general manager of Glass's, Tony Robinson, says: "For anyone in the business of setting future values, to rely totally on historical values is extremely dangerous." He says Glass's Guide factors in only about 40% historical data when advising on or setting residuals.

The Ford and Holden contracts contain caveats on kilometres and
condition, but are by definition general. But for the quarter to June, Glass's Guide shows two-year-old Festivas down to half their new prices and Holden Barinas only slightly better at 60%. The finance contract buy-back figures were generally set about 50%, but dealers fully expected to get back good-quality low-kilometre cars they could ticket at 60-65%, giving themselves wholesale margins of about $2000 per car. What they expected simply is not happening.

Copyright  1997 BRW Media
This is an extract of an article in Australia's Business Review Weekly magazine.

STEVE'S NOTE: Isn't globalisation marvellous????!!!!

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 05:25)
The Australian quote of the year:

I allowed the bill for the new Parliament House to go through and I turn
the first sod and the whole thing is an unmitigated disaster. It would be
a wonderful thing if we turned Parliament House over to the oil-company moguls, and Parliament went back to the old building which was friendly and intimate.

- Former Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser on his $1 billion

And yes, he was a Liberal ( & left wing conservative )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 06:49)
Good mornin ALL....yes,even you WW!...From the most heavily unionized area of North America....If only the rest of NA could be like us....we'd be in deep do-do....Heavy rain+wind commin down....

(Sun Aug 10 1997 07:11)
Good Morning Ted: Nice sunny morning here. Just finished my first cup of coffee and reading last nights posts.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 07:16)
Goldfinger ( 2:37 ) That's THE answer within your means and be debt free......and I don't bluff!...Oldman: Keep em commin...we need some common sense......

(Sun Aug 10 1997 07:19)
Mornin Donald! Am sitting here staring out at a wild ocean drinking my morning cup of Java....Pretty good cat-fight last

(Sun Aug 10 1997 07:24)
TED: How long did it take you to learn to speak And, could we call it a dogfight, just to avoid raising the "cat" topic?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 07:40)
Changes in Dollar-Yen relationship impact Korean stock prices. ( WSF note )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 07:40)
I'm still learning to speak Canadian as it's a very difficult language to master....Dog-fight it shall be...Am looking forward to tonight's market action and I expect the Hang Seng to open down ( big time ) and Europe might not be too pretty Monday mornin but who knows about the Dow?
....Could be trouble if the "dipsters" are on vacation...and what about Gold+the currencies tonight-tomorrow...Used to have one of those "magic eight" black balls that you'd tilt and an answer would pop up but I can't find the damn thing!...Starting to get a few breaks in the clouds but still have a 25-30 MPH wind wistling but at least it's not like the wind we sometimes the 85 MPH stuff that blew the 12 foot mesh satellite dish away a few years ago...A painful sight to watch it leave..
piece by piece....No CNBC that day!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 07:54)
TED: We are about 700 feet back from the ocean, 13 to 17ft above sea level so the water level is rarely a problem. But the wind can sure do a job on us from time to time. I thought to learn Canadian it was only one word "eh" and one letter, Z=Zed? Snoring must be difficult in Canadian zedzedzedzedzedzed. Re the markets, does two days make a trend? It has to start somewhere and I think this Asian currency turmoil has to be spilling over into the world banking system. Everything connect to everything. The bond market is the key. If there are forced sales of US T-Bonds by the Japanese to raise funds to support the Thai currency we are down for the count.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 08:13)
Isn't the ocean awesome!...No,I hardly believe does two days make a trend and was only speculating on a probable temporary phenomenon...a simple market reaction and since the Hang Seng has been mirroring the Dow,I expect some,at least temporary, fireworks...Our property is within one mile of the farthest Eastern Point of Nova Scotia and the wind is an almost constant factor here...Scaterie Island ( 8 miles out ) has water on its ocean side ( East ) that is about 5 degrees warmer than the bay side so I surmise the gulf stream is that close and maybe that has some bearing on the almost constant wind...It ain't like this on the Maine coast!...Am looking forward to the return of the Fin whales next month....

(Sun Aug 10 1997 08:14)
A bullish opinion on Malaysia stocks.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 08:23)
Tired gull from Ontario just landed....Wouldn't Dickie Gephardt fit right in here.....Am thinkin of headin back to the states to be a replacement worker for UPS as they have a HISTORY of bein overly generous to their workers....BBL...time ta make some dough....and bake some bread!...and speakin of bread....HI TORT!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 08:44)
DJ: Yes we have a Dow/Gold chart here at the Kitco site. Go back to July 27, 1997 at 5:34 and 5:37 AM. Find two posts by bb fisher. Set your printer to horizontal and print out each chart. Trim the edge of the right hand chart and tape them together into a single Dow chart from 1903 adjusted to the price of gold. It is a visual revelation and will surely influence your thoughts about where gold and the Dow are heading. You are seeing the entire 20th Century from the point of view of gold.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 08:51)
I am new to Gold futures, can someone tell me how buying, say 10
Dec 360 calls, could play out using the current 330.40 underlying price.
Use your best CALLS.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 08:59)
SHEK: Put me down for $5000 into Central Fund of Canada and $5000 into the Rydex Ursa Fund on Monday.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Aug 10 1997 09:25)
I have just scrolled thru the previous day and night at Kitco. Words and phrases jumble in my inner ears. The great phiosophical debates of Saturday and Sunday a gentle dawn, the Sun comes up to tranquilty and friendly chat. Some observations: Brother WW, I respectfully and rhetorically ask what percentage of your lawyerly income you donate to the social "charities" you espouse?
Are you like the poor widow in the gospels who put all she owned into the charity box? Or are you like the Pharisees, who make wide their phylacteries in public, but know not the essence of the law? Why do you depend so MUCH upon law to right the wrongs of life you perceptively apprehend? Being a lawyer, are you a prisoner of the law, and wish to invoke it upon your brother at any and every turn that jolts your personal sensibilities as to justice and injustice? Brother ELDORADO put it best when he reminded us "The Bill of Rights was made for Government ( to limit IT ) - The people have UNLIMITED Rights. They were given to us by God, not lawyers. Lawyers inevitably take them away . Political Lawyers especially ( our "representatives" ) are the Wholesesalers of the people's rights. They buy them up and then retail them out to others as if those rights were now their own to so divide. No sir, I am sorry. The world will not be made any better by force of "law" OR the barrel of a gun. Not in favor of "labor" or of "capital.' I have no beef with the socialist's concern for suffering and downtrodden humanity. But the answer is not to shackle those who choose to live by ideas and inventions and skill and to tax them and manipulate the wealth they create for all. The answer is to take people of ideas and gather 'round them. And create enterprises for your philosophy that are as free, competitive, and responsible for their OWN life and death as the private corporations you decry. Then we will see where is YOUR commitment truly, where is YOUR vision and power to lead and convince men, and stir their hearts. And where is your frugality, and management ability, and where are your standards, so that your enterprise of human elevation and equality is not bled by the very souls you would lift up, and bodies you would nourish. Or is it easier just passing a law, picking my pocket "legally," and then passing a lot more laws? Don't you just LOVE Kitco Weekends?

Mike Sheller
(Sun Aug 10 1997 09:27)
@the Donald
DONALD - EXCELLENT split of the 10 grand. I think that's imaginative and sound.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 09:31)
Home again. L.A. was hot & smoggy and traffic was bumper to bumper at 80MPH. Its good to be home. Strad, I bet you enjoyed your week in the mountains. It is good to be back on the ranch.

Hello Oldman, good to see you back and hear your voice of reason.

Gentleman, I don't think the argument is so much democrat or republican as electing men of good charactor who will do the most good for the most people. When we as a country knowingly elect people who are dishonest, liars and are beholden to special interests, we will get what we deserve.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Aug 10 1997 09:36)
The Astrological Investor
FRONT: You asked for a freebie from the ol' astrologer - to find the most propitious moment for resident sage George S. Cole's anointing in his "Kingly Role." Well, old King Cole has graciously emailed me his essential birth data - leastways enuf for me to get a fix on his planets. I will be putting all my calls from Messrs Soros, Greenspan, Gates , et al, on hold to find time to run out GSC's scope and analyze it. I just hope I don't make the mistake I made with Maggie Thatcher when I read her chart upside down one morning with a hangover!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 09:39)
WW, GEORGE COLE: Just as markets swing to extremes, politic and labor relations do the same. Politics and Labor Relations can be considered as markets too I guess. Labor has reached the bottom of its Bear Market and management is at a Bull Market peak. The UPS strike is a "management selloff" that says the free market has determined that all parties to a transaction must profit if the market is to be satisfied. Outrageous CEO salaries are a thing of the past. A Dow selloff will lead an investing public, that now has a management bias, to the other extreme. They will only side with management if they have the feeling they are getting rich along with the CEO's. As their financial conditions worsen they will tend to identify with the labor position.

It is fascinating to see so many forces reaching their extremes at the same time in history. The Bull Markets in Democrats ended in 1994. The Bull Market in World Powers ended in 1989. The Bull Market in Multinationals, Conglomerates and paper assets is ending now. Bear markets in gold, labor, savers and small entreprenuers are nearly over. The breakup of Russia and Yugoslavia and the tribalization of Africa is a warning sign for China, India, Canada and the United States that the politics of the future must respect and reflect the regional and ethnic differences of the regions if the whole units are to remain intact. The market is the master of us all. It requires that everyone profits from each and every transaction. It will punish those who persist in refusing to fairly share the profits with those who helped create them.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 09:41)
@rising dough
Mike Sheller ( 9:25 ) Amen brother Mike!....Looks like you have good weather to head to the shore beats the mall!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 09:42)
To Mike

Thanks Mike .... Your best will always be enough I can assure you. Of course, if all hell breaks loose, we'll now say that you drank too much and George will have a way out of a tight spot ! HAHA ( :- ) )

We'll all await with baited breath you pronouncment of the annointed moment.


FRONT ( the page )
( duke of ) EARL
( the future ) George VII Last George in England was the VI so ......
Is that ok George?


(Sun Aug 10 1997 09:45)
Thanks, Donald. I think I'll ride Korea down to zero. Having said that, I probably just ensured a huge rally will take place.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 09:49)
Mike Sheller: Can ya do an astrological make-up on me???...Bread dough consists of: 3 cups of whole wheat flour, 6 + cups of rye flour,Tablespoon of honey,2.5 teaspoons of salt,two tablespoons of cidar vinegar, two tablespoons of caraway seeds,2.75 cups of warm water,two teaspoons fresh yeast, and some heavy-duty kneading...

(Sun Aug 10 1997 09:52)
@St.Andrews by the sea
Shove it Lucien!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 09:56)
RE: earlier post about Paul Krugman. Having been a grad student at MIT, I realized early on that the professors were either fustrated mathematicians, with no understanding or concern for the economy, or power-hungry policy wonks, ready to jump on whatever star is rising. The exception to that observation IMO is Krugman. I try to stay current with his work- He is very bright, articulate, and, as far as I can tell, motivated by the truth- at least more so than most of his peers.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 09:59)
Best regards from this Akron Zip to you.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 10:05)
@damn computer
My computer keeps locking up,where everything I click on brings NO reponse...I have to click on Windows ( the only thing that reponds ) and shut it down ...Anyone else having this problem?? or is this some sinister plot by the teamsters ta shut me up....

(Sun Aug 10 1997 10:05)
Scotty @ 23:01 - Thanks, I had a sailor standing behind me telling me about tactics and making sure we didn't put anything out that's still classified. Jane's is a good reference, here's another:

The really good stuff on tactics can't be shared. Worries about our navy vis-a-vis the Chicoms are misplaced.

Oldman: WW can keep this up for months. Winston Churchill is the source of the quote "If a man isn't a liberal by the time he is 20 he has no heart, and if he isn't a conservative by the time he is 40 he has no head." A healthy dose of old-fashioned morality would go a long ways to returning both parties to respectability imho, until then it's discouraging to watch any of them. Keep posting, but let's schedule the food fights for a more decent hour!

$10,000 - pay off any remaining debts, buy a good shotgun, put the rest in coins.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 10:07)
Shek ( 9:59 ) Aurora ring a bell??...BBL...

(Sun Aug 10 1997 10:12)
Ted, refresh my memory.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 10:13)
Part-Time vs Consultants
Part-time: UPS means the second earners, like housewives, students by part-time workers, but the Union is complaining about the part-time status of the first earners of household, the part-time workers who work as long as full-time workers. The problems are a lower wage, no benefit and unstable status, etc.

Consultant: In Wall Street, consultants replace full-time financial professionals since 1995. Their compensation is 10-20% higher than full-timer's. They receive the substitute for benefits. Placement agents are quickly raising their power in finance. At the beginning, professionals were in panic, but there is the same demand in this market. As long as Dow Jones is up, their job insecurity is hidden. However, what happens when the stock market reaches a downward cycle?

In an economic, labor/wage is fixed by labor contract. In contrast part-time labor is a flexible variable, the same as capital. Therefore, part-time provides dynamism to the changing economy and environment. But what happens to them when the economy is downward.

In the Congress, there is a discussion how to improve the self-employed: tax, health insurance, etc. However, to me their work is too slow and insufficient. Neither Democrats or Republicans give us a solution.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 10:14)
Spent ten+ years in Aurora Ohio....

(Sun Aug 10 1997 10:21)

The devil was not in the "gold window". The devil was in the overvalued
dollar." Tlaga walks us through dollars declining purchasing power &
role of gold from 1920-1973:

Mike Sheller
(Sun Aug 10 1997 10:36)
TED: Sure will, just e-me your date , time, and place of birth - or whatever info re those stats you have. At least I'm getting a recipe in return. My address is above.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Aug 10 1997 10:44)
What happens to us all?
MIZ: Perhaps the real questions are : What happens to all of us if the direst predictions of the sages at Kitco come true? What happens to us if there is a drought or a famine ( God forbid ) ? What happens to us if there is a War ( God forbid, etc ) What happens to us if there is a plague ( Aids, Ebola, etc ) ? What happens to us if there is a massive earthquake and the continent starts to sink? What happens to us if we are born into an abusive family? What happens to us if Bill Clinton were to be given a Third term? That last was hypothetical of course. But with lawyers, you never know. Life happens to us. Where and how do we REALLY start to change what that means?

George Cole
(Sun Aug 10 1997 10:54)
reversion to the mean
Donald: Your 9:39 post says it all. When things get too far out of balance -- whether in the natural world, the economy, the polity, or the financial markets -- a big move in the opposite direction is assured. And the farther the pendulum swings to one extreme, the bigger the inevitable jump in the opposite direction. Reversion to the mean writ large.

Daily Outrage
(Sun Aug 10 1997 10:54)
@IRS at work

If you're an American taxpayer, the new tax laws just passed by Congress and signed by the President may save you money or cost you money. But we know one thing for sure: you'll never figure them out.

That's right, Outraged readers, filing your dreaded income tax forms will be even more complicated the next time around. If you hire a tax preparer or accountant, you'll probably be paying them even more to tell you how much you owe Uncle Sam.

The new laws contain a child tax credit of $400-$500. But it decreases, and then vanishes, as income increases. It also changes, depending on the number of children you have. Of course, the amount of the deduction is different in 1998 and 1999.

There used to be a single rate on capital gains taxes. Now, there are three different rates for capital gains. Did you own those stocks for less than 18 months, more than 18 months but less than five years, or more than five years? Which rate depends on how long you've held the investment. Unlike the old rules, though, it also depends on which type of investment generated the profit. Profits from collectibles, real estate, and small businesses are taxed at different rates than other investments. Got that?

Do you make contributions to an IRA? Starting now, you have to choose between three different IRA plans. You've still got your deductible IRA's but now you also have new non-deductible IRA's. Contribution limits, and who is allowed to make IRA contributions, have also changed.

The tuition credit may save you money. But not this year. And not if your income is over a certain limit. And not if the school is not "qualified." Except, of course, for the retroactive changes.

Right now, your accountant is planning the new addition on his house.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 10:55)
100,000 job losses predicted

(Sun Aug 10 1997 10:56)
One of the economic puzzles over the last fifteen years or so is what has happened to cause the Americian public to save but 5% or so of their income. That puzzle is shouting volumes to us currently. Why now when it is possible to make 20-30 percent per year in the greatest bull stock market of all time, why still only 5%? My answer, the americian public far from being fools know somewhere deep in their subconscious that most of the money going into the financial system will never come out, thus they choose to spend 95% of their income. A very good rational choice. Some day they will take the next step and discover there is a way to save that does not involve the financial system.

George Cole
(Sun Aug 10 1997 11:03)
Waiting for the barber the other day, I thumbed through a late July copy of TIME magazine which I very rarely read. Wouldn't you know it, but this issue carried a short article advising investors to get out of gold. If TIME is running bearish gold articles, the turn has got to be at hand or quite near. Very bullish from a contrarian perspective!.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 11:05)
Gold trade sees Dubai imports overtaking '96 levels

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 11:23)
DONALD: I was meaning to get around to taping the two gold/dow ratio charts a while back, but did so today. Very interesting. Have you tried running a line through the peaks of 1906,1909,1936,1945,1974, & 1991?
It seems to be a mean average ( approximately ) . Also, if you extrapolate the high points of 1929 and 1965 ( on the line drawn ) & then extrapolate a line from the bottom of 1979 on past 1997 ( now ) & on, I get the following junture. It is around year 2002, & a gold to dow ratio of about 40 plus. Since the 1965 level was above the 1929 level, what is stopping the next one being above the 1965 level?? I suppose I must be careful about the logarithmic index on the RH column, but... I have been of the view that maybe we will get at least 5 years of smaller tops & drops, a bit like from 1960 to 1970. That is sustainable with continuous low inflation. My question is did the stock market drops of 1929 and 1970's have higher unemployment & currency problems well before hand, or well after the event?? I am aware of the German banking problem pre-1929 etc. Is the bull this time a 1929 spike, or a 1950-70 drawn out affair. Have known this since October last year. The 100 year S&P 500 chart I have looks fairly similar to the Gold/Dow ratio chart. However it does not show how severe 1979 was, like Gold does. I always thought 1974 was the bad year, but that was only the first part of the major correction. In summarising, there is a remote possibility that the stocks could correct a bit, then go on like the blazes until early next century. Hope I am wrong, cause I can't handle this. If stocks do keep moving up strongly ( not impossible ) , then gold could keep dropping like a rock!! ( in price )

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 11:27)
Must hit the sack. Will lurk back in 6 hours or so. Have a good philosophical Sunday afternoon, mates.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 11:34)
MIKE SHELLER: Author William Irwin Thompson has an answer to the series of questions in your 10:44 post. "If you fail to create your own future, it will be inflicted upon you."

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 11:40)
Good quick downloading chart of world quakes for past month.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 11:52)
As a new grandfather ....


I was reminded of a short blag reading all the postings from last night.

An immigrant family was visiting a doctor in regards to why their baby was constantly crying. Nothing seemed to help. They had made the milk a little thicker through using pablum, had sweetened the water with sugar, had just about down everything one could think of.

The doctor, hearing the baby constantly crying in the waiting room, brought the couple into the examination room primarily to calm the rattled nerves of the other patients. To his horror, when he undressed the baby, he found that the child had poop all over it's legs, back, front, etc. in effect the baby needed a damn good cleaning and change since the poop had overflowed the sides of the diaper. The doctor immediately did the necessary proceedure and then demanded of the parents why they hadn't changed the infant in such an obviously long time. "No need to yet" came the reply. "Are you kidding!" said the doctor. "No really, it's not all that much poop there. Anyways, it'll hold much more!" "I don't believe it" said the doctor. "Really is true" said the man. He reached over to the counter and grabbed the box of diapers and held it up to show the doctor. "see, good till 25 pounds!" as he pointed to the label on the box.

Have a nice Sunday


Mike Sheller
(Sun Aug 10 1997 12:03)
DONALD: My point exactly. GEORGE S. COLE: Check you mail.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Aug 10 1997 12:09)
A stitch in time makes Frankenstein
STEVE ( Perth ) - This time around it may be a 1950-70 Bull with a 1929 spike grafted onto its head! Two decades about does it for stock bull momentum. This will NOT continue.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 12:16)
Donald - "The meaning of life is not something discovered. It is
something moulded." -- Antoine de Saint-Exupery

I'm reminded of that everytime I check the bottom of
the fridge.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 12:20)
Donald: Thanks for Saturday 18:47

(Sun Aug 10 1997 12:22)
bw- a good theory regarding low savings rates. I'd guess it has more to do with having a 'utility discount rate' of phenominal magnitude. In other words, extreme shortsightedness or extreme optimism for the future. Its more important to most to have that sports utility vehicle for grocery shopping. Based on the conversations I have with these folks, they don't know what a financial system IS, let alone how safe it may be.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 12:25)

regardless of the superior systems the us navy has
at their disposal, they will not stay the day when
china takes control of her sphere of influence. we
do have the 20mm depleted uranium radar controlled
gatling gun, yes we do. we have massive aircraft
carriers that are crewed by 5k plus naval personnel.
we have many floating vessels including garbage scows
that will most definitely be targetable, tam bien. there
will be a slight logistics problem however.

remember the maldives fiasco with argentina and the uk?
argentina had an outdated airforce using italian super
entendards and french exocet cruise missles. these far
flung forces were sitting ducks in their opponents arena.
one missle = 1 ship. the argentinians blasted several
modern, heavily armored warships from their precarious
perch atop the wind-swept frigid waves at the southern
tip of s. america. do you think the chinese could not
do at least as good, if not better? the arrogance of our
military will be its undoing. we cannot march into foreign
waters like days of old, and whip all with big sticks. the
technological base available to all has changed the way
power can be projected. they have ballistic missles that can
hit the west coast, do you think they cannot hit big steel
vessels close to their own continent? our subs may hurt
their ships, but they will blast our surface vessels out of
the water. the chinese have developed anti-ship
weaponry that will take-out our expeditionary forces before
they arrive to take control of the contested areas. they
can lose 1 million men and just be getting warmed-up, while
we lose a carrier or two and the sentiment at home with
huge numbers of casualties will be much worse than was
seen in vietnam. additionally, if we are fighting another
war ( korea, iraq ) how will/can we, with ever diminishing
military capabilities, successfully fight the largest
military machine on earth? this is the same gov't that
has been preparing for 20 years to defeat our naval forces
in THEIR arena. missle technology will knock-out any naval
task force in future conflagrations involving sophisticated
military machines. what happened to the us ship that had the
same gatling gun system for protection several years ago? it
took a direct hit from a SLOW flying missle and 21 men were
killed! do you remember that example of our great technological
superiority? with the next generation of ship killing missles
available ( supersonic ) , what device will the military put on their
vessels to assure the crewmembers that at least they have some
protection? the patriot missle you say??

about time you asked!

the reports from the israel during the gulf crisis reported 85%
success rates with this new defensive system. the missles
exploding ( suppossedly due to impacting the other missles ) in
air over israel seemed to prove that the patriot was better than
predicted. this is far from the truth. a 1 hour program on
the discovery channel exposed the truth about the patriot defensive
system. the records they got from the gov't showed less than a 40%
success of these systems. the erroneous info came from the MEDIA
that was given to them by their military counter-parts ( spin-doctors ) .
this system was deployed more as a psychological barrier for the
israelies than for the actual effectiveness of the anti-missle systems.
the missles were detonated above the cities to keep them from hitting the ground after missing their intended targets. imagine, 60% of the patriot
missles @ 1 million each, being used for psychological support instead
of physically providing protection from incoming missles!

if you use these numbers projected into a battle with china and the
us naval forces, what happens to our ships? we successfully knock
40% of their anti-ship missles down. they launch 100 missles and
get 60% hits. reverse the numbers. they will still sink all our
ships with expendable one-time missles, while we lose very valuable
multi-use ships and their acouterment of operative personnel.

n. korea has the artillery in place to turn seoul into cinders
in less than 1 HOUR! open two fronts simultaneously, and our
capabilities are subject to reactive roles instead of pro-active.
with long-term plannning for military action BORDERING their
vast continent, with limitless manpower, traditional artillery
and multiple launch systems ( rocketry ) , they will gain the upper hand
from the onset, and through attrition ( casualties ) will quite
easily wear down our resolve to police this part of the world.

strength is our best protection from an increasingly hostile
fractionated world. we are perceived as being the great satan
to the islamic countries of the world ( 800 million ) . we are
the cause of decadance, famine, and poverty to part of
world, while being the police force for the rest of what is
left. being everything for everybody has done nothing except
to create scorn , envy, enmity, and enemies from all who want
what we are, and will be. freedom has a high price for those
who fight to bring it about. illusory complacency about external
threats from fading political ideologies or semmingly innocuous
communist regimes, will eventually cause a repeat of history and
huge loss of life TRYING to keep what others have given their
lives for. our freedoms, and the american democratic way of life.

cherokee!; ) on-the-tall-ones-shoulders----------hey ted, tis good
to see, all as they should
be! knowledge is power. glad
kitco has some semblance of normalcy!!!!!

driver of the ssmfat----------------------------

Strad Master
(Sun Aug 10 1997 12:27)
The Dawning of a New Age?
GEORGE S. COLE: A few posts ago the Rydex Ursa Fund was mentioned.
It appears that the time is nearing when you will be moving your personal funds back into Rydex Ursa? If so, what needs to happen for you to pull that trigger? Thanks for the info.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 12:31)
STEVE-PERTH: I make no claim to being a chart guy but I sure do enjoy looking at them. So take the following as "Just Suppose": You draw a line along the bottom of 1980, 1987, 1993 to 1997. That crosses 1997 at 15 ounces. As we are at 24.66 now, sharply down from 25.66 last week could we get a panic drop to Dow 5500 and gold 360? That produces a Ratio of 15.27 ounces. It fits my "last false inflationary spike" theory of several years standing. From the Dow standpoint a 33% drop would be "reasonable". A gold rally to 360 is reasonable from this point also. With the Ratio at 15.27 the buy on the dip crowd reappears and takes the ratio to 40, with the Dow at 8700 and gold at 215. From Dow 8700 we drop to 1000, a 90% drop as in 1929-1932. Note the little blip down in 1928 on the Ratio. We could be at that spot today. Remember, all this is pure speculation and not a forecast. Apparently there is a scholarly debate going on between the Elliott Wave guys. Some think we are in a third wave, some feel it is a fifth. I think what I just described fits the "thirds" camp.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 12:34)
I would appreciate any commentary from knowledgable individuals on the subject. In my estimation there will be great upheaval in the establishment. In fact some of the Middle Eastern Nations are preparing for what they call a holy war show down with the U.S. and some of the rest of the world. This is a very intereating subject and anyone with information please post your thoughts on this.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 12:38)
WSF - I feature the dwindling savings rate displays the affinity
various forms of bankruptcy-- financial, ethical, educational,
cultural, familial, political-- have for one another.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 12:49)
goldfinger - my take on it is that the Iranian man and woman in the street have come to conclude their mullahs are a joke in the ensuing years since the fall of the hated Shah. And would welcome Western ways, products and capital. Modern information technology defeats any sieve.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 12:55)
RE: 12:49
I would conclude you could be right , but my gut feeling is there something else in the cards.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 12:58)
Mike sheller
Your answer is very similar to others. In 7 years, a half of US labor will be part-time workers. It is the first experience, therefore, nobody knows what happens next.

Today I am busy. I have to have a quick lunch and go to next party in the mountain. Have a nice Sunday afternoon everybody.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 13:00)
What about the 500 year cycle does this mean anything to you ? Or is this just another turn of the century.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 13:24)
Does anyone know where gold would have to go for the smug Producers to feel the heat on their shorts ( no pun intended ) . Is there any level where THEY would really be in trouble?

George Cole
(Sun Aug 10 1997 13:27)
This is the week a huge earthquake is supposed to occur near Japan, according to a few prognosticators. I will be absolutely amazed if it happens. In other words don't hold your breath!

Mike Sheller
(Sun Aug 10 1997 13:34)
The Astrological Investor @ the Coronation

By popular demand ( mainly of FRONT & EARL - and you can't get much more popular than that ) The Astrological Investor has taken a look at brother George S. Cole's horoscope ( data supplied graciously by George ) and here is the report:

George's Sun is positioned at 7 degrees Taurus, a tad more than a scant degree from NYSE Venus, my esoteric significator of gold in the New York Stock Exchange horoscope ( 5.25 Taurus ) .No wonder he loves gold so much! He just can't help it. It's Karma. But George is not so uncritical of the shiny yellow as he might seem at times. With his Pluto, planet of underground and hidden concerns at 6 Leo, in a critical 90 degree angle with his Sun, George is always digging deep for the hidden story. If anything, he may wrestle very mightily in the depths of his soul with his analysis, before taking a public position. Then he defends his stand stolidly, and to the death ( also a very Taurean trait ) .

George's Moon is in Cancer - the astrological sign of family and home. These things mean a great deal to him. With the Moon the classic significator of silver, George probably has a basement full of the white metal. Proably in round coin form. His Mars is in Cancer as well, indicating a truly gentle and sensitive man. But he's likely had an explosion or two with his family, and, much as they are important to him, certain relatives have felt his sting.

Currently, Saturn - planet of overwork, limitation, legal situations, worry, discipline, tough rows to hoe, is conjuncting his Venus. George's Venus, planet of nice things, luxuries, feminine favors, is just two degrees away from NYSE Moon - significator of the silver market.
This guy just can't keep away from the precious metals. He's karmically linked to them in every way. His instincts, over time, will resonate with the general moves in the gold and silver markets. Not that we would ever accuse George of being lacking in the intellectual and mental spheres, but he seems to have an INTUITIVE connection to gold and silver that in the end could be far more valuable than any reasoned analysis.

But right now, Saturn sitting on top of his Venus is delaying gratification and perhaps bringing some headaches. Possibly even some problems at this time with women, or a specific woman, but we'll discreetly steer clear of George's private life here.

Short term, the next significant, though relatively minor influence upon George's 'scope will come on TUESDAY, 19 AUGUST, when the transiting Venus in the heavens will line up precisely with George's Neptune in his Solar 5th house, the house of SPECULATION. It's also the house of children, so maybe something regarding offspring might occur in his personal life as well.
We must assume, for our regal puposes, that the fair and lovely Venus will bring charm, honors, and perhaps some measure of riches - either financial or pontifical - for George on or around the 19th. And for those of his subjects who hearken to him on that day. With Venus, the Queen of the horoscope, in conjunction beside his Neptune, this is as good a day as any for the coronation of our ol' King Cole. Long Live King George!

( As an addendum: previewing this "reading", Mr Cole has remarked that there was some accuracy here, except "I do not now and never have owned any significant amount of silver." My comment: Perhaps sub-basement excavation would prove surprising, and profitable, here. ( :- ) )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 13:43)
It's commin my friend........The concept of peace through stength is now almost mocked....Neighbor Eddie just showed...gotta run and try and be a "human"....maybe I can "fake it"....

George Cole
(Sun Aug 10 1997 13:51)
Rydex Ursa
Strad Master: Rydex Ursa is definitely attractive here, but the gold funds have much more upside. If you make 20% on Rydex Ursa, you can probably make 50% in the gold funds. Because of this I have decided to stick to the gold funds for the time being. Of course, if I was as bearish as Puetz, I would load up on Ursa.

BTW, THE PRUDENT BEAR FUND may be a better bear play than Rydex Ursa. They can short only the stocks they feel are most overpriced while Rydex Ursa will mimic the S&P 500 in reverse. I am seriously considering putting some funds into this one.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 13:54)
Tanzania expects to become large gold producer.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 13:57)
China claims 394 tons of gold in reserve

(Sun Aug 10 1997 14:01)
Gold price rises in Istanbul

(Sun Aug 10 1997 14:06)
George Cole: I rememeber when Joe Granville was at the height of his career and prestige in the late 1970's. He had such a hot hand that his ego temporarily got the best of him and he announced that since he could predict cycles so well, he would henceforth also predict earthquakes in California, based upon seismic data. Needless to say, he did not.
Nevertheless I do remember also that the mundane astrologer, Luther Jensen, DID predict a few quite reliably. So if Mike Sheller can get you to dig up your basement looking for silver, may be Mike can also confirm or unconfirm that earthquake in Japan.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 14:07)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors
FSAGX UP 12.5% in past 22 days

(Sun Aug 10 1997 14:16)
Land Of The Free @ USofA (B.S.)
I certainly do not wish to get into a food fight, RE: IS USofA *Free*,
As per, the founding Fathers, I as a Canadian say, NO..Nor, is Canada.
This is Why I feel, as I do.:

The Financiers: Supreme Masters.
Today, through their economic control, the Financiers are preparing a
world of absolute control. They will rule universally and totally, raised
at the top of both civil powers united: politics and economics.

Europe's Common Market seems to be the first step towards the world
political government. And the electronic computer will be that "man of
such stature" that he may command, watch, register, check, censor,
punish all the men of all the nations, "each human being of the earth"
This computer is really much more than a man: it is a heartless superman,
with diabolic intelligence.

And the International Financiers, who know well that they themselves
control the money of the whole world, have the nerve to talk about the
"mysterious cause of actual chaos and disorder". They make believe that
they are looking for a means to pull the peoples from the "economic chaos
into which they are sinking." when it is they, the bankers, who are the
authors of the chaos, by the ruthless control they exercise over money
and by the way they regard a nation's currency as a mere plaything, a
type of play that makes the nation *tremble*.

The Canadian dollar goes down and the American dollar goes down in
respect to the Asian and European currencies. But the Canadian dollar is
even lower than the American dollar. The Bank of Canada comes to the
rescue of the Canadian dollar. But that is not enough,etc. etc. etc.

These are the games of the International Bankers, the games of
speculating financiers, the games of swindlers. And worst yet, they are
the games of those who would control human lives, the games of dictators
of tyrants over the people.

Soooo, those here that suggest having a victorious war, and putting
forth such a vivid and lovely arsonal of weapons, to use against
humans. I say: HELL NO, I WILL NOT GO. *Lest We Forget*

USofA came into the first world war in *1918* NOT in 1914.
USofA came into the Second World War in Dec. *1941* NOT in 1939
A lot of Canadians died, long, before the USofA started the same.

Both World War's resulted in the unprecedented strengthening of USofA
capital, on a scope that was worldwide. BLOOD AND GOLD, EH!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 14:18)
An opinion on stock activity for next week.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 14:23)
6PAK: How long before we see a similar story with an Ottawa or Washington dateline?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 14:26)
The next domino; Kenya.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 14:29)
Kenya, one day later.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 14:31)
The USofA is about a fight between the selfish and greedy corporate elite and the basically progressive minded workers. The stk mkt rise has benefited the greedy elite by making the little guy thinks he has a stake in the process. The financial collapse will be the best thing that ever happened for working people everywhere. Go Ron Carey Go Teamsters/Clinton get some g___ and do what is right!!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 14:32)
Russia and the white metals.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 14:36)
Japan says US banks must help with the Thailand bailout.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 14:41)
Japan now experiencing deflation says JP Morgan.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 14:42)
Donald: Perhaps there is something to your deflationary bias after all. Since I started reading the Donald Sunday News here at Kitco, I have given up my subscriptions to at LEAST five newspapers and magazines. That's got to be somewhat deflationary in itself!!! Keep up the good work. :- )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 14:48)

The missing word for the stock market is awesome... which best
describes extraordinary upside action. It seems Public views market
profits as ENTITLEMENTS - Must RELOAD Digest page:

(Sun Aug 10 1997 14:50)
AUROPHILE: Better keep your subscriptions. I only post news that fits my point of view. ( grin thing )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 14:55)

"Rubin: Clinton to Use Line Item Veto". Is this an order or isn't it?

Remember the Mexican Rescue - Congress was against it, but it flew.

Sometimes I believe that policy is dictated from elsewhere.

Congressman Bob
(Sun Aug 10 1997 14:56)
All you Liberals and Conservatives just don't get it, do you? Why do you think that we call ourselves "STATESMEN"? We work for the State, therefore we are Statists! We all have a common goal, and that's to remove ALL freedoms that individuals have remaining. And if I do say so myself, we are doing a pretty darn good job of it at that. Why do you think that we play kissy kissy with all those environmental wackos? Do you think that we give a damn about the environment? Heck no, it's all about taking away your property and water rights ( and to get votes ) plain and simple. Why do you think that we are taking away your right to bear arms? To cut down on crime? Right, no it's to remove the possibility that you may one day turn on us and use them, you know like in "Unintended Consequences"? We are not stupid, even if we act and talk as if we are. Well, a couple of us are, but hey, you voted them in so who is really the stupid one? Why do you think that we always vote for passing new laws and rules and regulations? It's because since we make up the laws, we are above them, that's why they do not pertain to us. We are exempt!

Whether it be Kintorus , Helmsman, Dickie G, Mad Dog Burton, ShummerThis , Frightenstein, or Ted Don't-Let-Me-Drive Kennedy, whomever, ( don't mind the spelling, my executive assistant is preparing for my briefing, "No leave on the high heels, Honey" ) we are all the same power loving, anti-rights paid off henchmen for the corporate bankers and monopolies of the world, including My Most Favorite Nation - China. ( They pay us real gooooood ) .

Why do you think that we agreed with Klintorus to give away for free the entire Patent Office Archives to China? For BIG bucks, and to help them improve their export markets, why of course.

Ahhhhh, that feels better now that I have gotten that off my chest. This truth thing is new to me, kinda feels good, maybe I should practice it more often, NOT! I'll tell you more later, after all, it's safe for me to assume that no matter what I tell you goldbugs, if you repeat it to anyone, who would believe you anyway?

P.S. You know why they call me "All-Night-Bob? Because I can screw you forever and ever! Oh, and to W.W. - keep up the good work, your appointment is coming up for review in a few weeks, should be no problem in getting you that which we promised 

(Sun Aug 10 1997 14:56)
Cherokee: Meaning no disrespect, but you can't take t.v. shows and 15 year old British naval experience and blend them into a reasonable estimation of today's reality. The Phalanx cannon you mentioned is a last measure defense and is effective out to a couple of miles. The primary AW defensive weapon is the SM-2 missle. One Aegis class cruiser carries 80-100 of these and can fire them very quickly. A BG has at least one cruiser and at least one destroyer with these weapons. This is in addition to the CAP from the carrier which also carries missles. Anti-ship missles must be guided by radar, and we can detect, track and kill radar guided devices. ( So can the British navy in 1997 ) . Your reference to the Patriot is to an army weapon not navy. Suffice it so say at this time, the Chinese do not possess a missle or plane, which we cannot detect and shoot down at a considerable distance from any BG ( Battle Group ) they choose to attack. Saying this is not arrogance, it an assertion of fact from a calm, reasoned assessment using up-to-date material. The Chinese do not have a blue water navy and I am curious as to why you and Spudmaster think we would sail our capital ships right up to their coast? Have you seen some printed scenario which demands this?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 15:03)
WW: Predicting the future by projecting present trends is dangerous, as many "investors" will attest. Nevertheless I am constrained to note that another decade of Klinton policies will result in Bobby Rubin's friends controlling at least 90% of the country's wealth, and American wages stabilizing somewhere between those of Singapore and Bangladesh.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 15:04)
Jack: There is no doubt about the Rubin/Clinton presidency. Rubin picked him, groomed him, financed him, controls him, and must have the most complete file on him of anyone around. But hey! Look how many spoos points we're up from 1992. That's what counts at the end of the day...:- )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 15:06)
Oldman: LOL!!!! But not if Strom Thurmond is president...

(Sun Aug 10 1997 15:08)
CONGRESSMAN BOB: Who is your favorite Congressman, other than yourself of course?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 15:11)
aurophile: Strom was alright til he got on social security and became a liberal.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 15:27)
Here we go again!
Just about once a month ( as regular as 'ol faithful ) the never-ending Yankee penchant for foisting their wretched political drivel/debate seems to infest Kitco. It usually starts with some inane comments such as those made by WW last night. WW and others - Please note: this is primarily a forum set up for the purpose of analysing the world's precious metals markets. Certainly we get off topic from time to time and this is often useful and enlightening to the world-wide participants participating and lurking here. However, the hours of political crap that many have to wade through to find useful information is delitirious to to the health of this site ( and quite probably to the mental health of said participants ) . Please, PLEASE take such U.S. specific, acrimonious, political, meanderings ELSEWHERE. ( There are, apparently, other sites dedicated to such useless twaddle ) Although it may be great fun for Yankees to continue this ceasless debate, please be assurred that it is extremely boring for others who come here from other locations around to world to enjoy our GOLD forum.
BTW - WW - Re: your comment: "God Bless the Teamsters!!!"
Is that what God did when Mr. Hoffa went Missing? :- )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 15:30)
Sorry old friends, but it's the truth!

Mike Sheller
(Sun Aug 10 1997 15:32)
@the "house"
CONGRESSMAN BOB: At last a straight talkin' politician who tells it like it is. You candor, your outspokenness, your chutzpah! are magnificent. I think you are the breath of air America nededs and deserves to show her the light she once was to the world. Do I have any pledges to the CONGRESSMAN BOB FOR PRESIDENT campaign? Dig deep and dig often Kitcoites. This is the man to carry the message the Free world needs to hear. I wish to place, in nomination...

Mike Sheller
(Sun Aug 10 1997 15:35)
@Bob, spelled backwards is...
CONGRESSMAN BOB: Sir, no kidding , America ( and Canada as well ) nededs you bad.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Aug 10 1997 15:40)
ah shucks
MOONEY: Aw, c'mon Mooney. It's the weekend serial at Kitco. It gets so lonely here Saturday and Sunday without a little acrimony. So it's a Yankee failing. Don't be so hard on us. Besides, the political structure has an ENORMOUS effect on what will happen to the gold market. Why, look at what those damned liberals did to the whole stinking WORLD in the 60's, that finally worked its way thru as inflation in the 70's. Not to mention rending the fabric of society and bringing civilization to... ok, Mooney. Sorry. I get your pernt.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 15:44)
Donald @ 14:23
Ottawa - Washington Dateline.
Likely, as not, the hand writing is on the wall eh!
The pain that must be had, before, the citizen is up to speed, as to
what is at hand.

Keep up the good work, re: postings. Take care!

KGB "VON Tventy VON"
(Sun Aug 10 1997 15:45)
Vee Mak Kontribuzion

Vee mak bigg Ruble kontribuzion for "KongressMann Bob Kampaign for Amerika Prezident" an gif him vfree trip to Moscov fur advize.

George Cole
(Sun Aug 10 1997 16:02)
politics and gold
MOONEY: I've said it before and will say it again. The better the teamsters and American labor in general does, the better gold will do. To the extent that political trends influence the gold price, there is no reason why they should be banished from this site.

The big swing to the political right these past 18 years has been THE MAJOR FACTOR BEHIND THE GOLD BEAR MARKET. A swing to the left or the populist center in the years ahead would do more for the gold price than an announcement by the worlds CBs that no more sales are contemplated.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 16:03)
Short spiders
Front - You said you would short the S&P using "spiders". An interesting visual image. What's a spider?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 16:07)
Night trading ought to be interesting when the markets open in another 6 hours. The markets should be volatile.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 16:10)
Mooney: If you think the bitter fruits of liberalism have fallen only on U.S. soil ( "us specific ) , there are some parts of Toronto and London ( eng, not ont. ) that I'd like you to visit tonight. You can analyze the metals market without paying close attention to what our liberal Western politicians are doing if yuou want, but you do so at great risk, IMO.

Good trading to all this week. BBNWknd.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 16:12)

Pipe down and let them talk. If a choice must be made - you're out!!! Give us more Bob!!!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 16:19)
IMCO "In my conspiratorial opinion"

Gold was ready to make a big move; then the "Rebublican's Contract With America" created an investment boom to the extent of creating the public opinion of "Who needs Gold". We had some consensus on a balanced budget and they figured that the markets will fly ( OF COURSE THE SAME TYPE OF LIE THEY MADE IN THE EARLY 1980's ) . When they saved Mexico, over both congressional and public opinion, the die was set -Extreme confidence was in- and the currency rise that followed is evidence. Those foreign suckers believed the crap and we are now feeling the results. I hope the crap hits the fan soon.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 16:21)
Byron - Nock: It occurred to me then, how little important it is to
destroy a government, in comparison with destroying the prestige of

There's little defense against ridicule, grin it to death. Blowing
up buildings on the other hand serves to enhance prestige. Particularly
in the indiscriminate killing and maiming, rightly so. Humor, not
zealotry, given dead seriousness and utter hilarity more positively
covariable than mutually exclusive.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 16:23)
DJ: a Spyder is a S&P derivitave that trades on the AMEX as SPY. You can buy it long or short it.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 16:23)
G.S. Cole: As usual you're right on about the connection between the success of labor and gold price. Unfortunately the g ( n ) utless Republicans are poised to grant Slick Willie "fast track" trade negotiating authority, which he will use to bring the rest of the third world into competition with American wage and salary earners. Its good for Rubin and his NYC buddies, make no mistake about it.----And for those of us who hitch a ride on the NYC wagon. Its hell for the working stiff, though. Gone for a week of trading. Bye.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 16:32)
WW: Everyone, including yourself, looks out for themselves first. In a sense, we are all selfish. That is the ultimate compliment of mankind -- we rely on ourselves. That's why we survive so well. To force individuals and organizations to pay taxes so that other individuals and organizations depend on receiving this re-distributed in contrary to man's best interests. This movement toward socialism always weakens the economic and financial foundation of a country. This creeping socialism, which we have in the US, is part of the reason we are headed toward a Total Collapse. Socialism has never worked. Furthermore, WW, I guarantee you that it will never work in the future either.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 16:35)
Aurophile: I have to agree with you. Donald does a great job here at Kitco.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 16:36)
Byron: Here's a Nockism for you: "Circumstances being as they are, one has no trouble about seeng that a State-controlled system of popular instruction is bound to lean heavily to the side of training, since the trainable masses stand immeasurably in excess of the educable few." Memoirs of a Superfluous Man, 14,v.
Now, of course there are no trainable amongst the masses either, only indoctrinable.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 16:41)
Jack: Its hard to leave here sometimes. The Contract With America was a PR ploy which had zero effect on the country or its markets. What really made a difference was when The Slick One called a defeated congress in for a "Lame Duck" session in December '94, and with Newt's help, cajoled, threatened and bribed enojugh votes to ram GATT through. THAT DAY began the great bull run that has more than doubled the wealth of the average "coupon clipper" while real wages have actually declined. cul8r.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 16:53)
Re: 6pak, land of the free
6pak: I am afraid you may be correct about a reason for the coming depression. Although I can not understand why one half or our lives is not enough for the bastards. Is not one half of 100 is better than all of 20? God, guns, grain, and gold.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 16:59)
Crash ahead??
goldfinger - I'm not a crash proponant. I was only reponding to the chant proposal of "DOW1000 in 2000". I said this would require a major crash that would way overshoot previous historical lows.

Do I think we are in for a major market reversal? Yes. I'm not an economist, or a serious student thereof, but I see too many unsettling things going on just in my daily life. I get 3 phone calls a week offering credit cards, with incentives. I get another call every other week from a bank or financial insitution offering home equity loans, no credit approval required. Last week while surfing, I saw Louis Ruckmucker interviewing the manager of a Young Investors Fund -- come on kiddies, break open your piggy banks, and let me show you how to make real money. The most impressive chart I saw from Ross Perot was the one that showed manufacturing jobs going steadily down, and people getting government paychecks going up - now exceeding manufacturing jobs by far and still rising! Unbelievable! We have an immoral, unethical, lying con man in the white house whose popularity has never been higher. Both political parties are run by a bunch of hacks in the pockets of various special interest groups, who are selling our country down the river, and no relief is in sight. The term "forward feedback" refers to an unstable situation that feeds on itself and self destructs. Clinton could never been elected unless there were enough votes from people getting government paychecks, getting public handouts, getting pork from a corrupt government, and/or people so mindless that they can be easily infuenced by propaganda. Once you reach this point, and this group has enough votes, we have reached a point where forward feedback is in effect. We are there, or nearly there. This situation can only be reversed by the effects of severe pain. It is inevitable, and I am not looking forward to it!

Can the DOW drop below 4500 while this is going on. I think Prechter's book At the Crest of the Tidal Wave was written when the DOW was around that level. I think it is possible and likely. When is another question.

In the meantime, I will try to keep my assets and my family safe. I will learn from RJ and invest with the trends, not try to fight them, and I will count on you and others at Kitco to help spot changes in the trends. I think we are approaching a very brutal, volitile market. Opportunities to make or lose a lot of money. Best of luck to all of you.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 17:02)
@barbadoe ranch
RE: Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:56
Congressman Bob ( ) :
Your candor is impressive, however, I thought it was Ted " can't keep my pants up " Kennedy. Go gold?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 17:04)
Puetz- Am I correct in sensing some Ayn Rand influence in you?

Mike Sheller
(Sun Aug 10 1997 17:06)
@ George, by George
GEORGE S. COLE: re 16:02 - Good Lord, Man, would ye sell yer soul to the Devil? Would that gold nivver moved a mite, and mankind became libertarian all, I would count it a worthwhile sacrifice...and me bein' long gold as tho there's no tommorow !

(Sun Aug 10 1997 17:07)
Hell For The Working Stiff @ Canada (Police)
United Steel Workers of American - as seen from a Canadian point of view.

UPS and Teamsters, both of these organizations are in Canada.Same master,
same position. Working stiff, gets the stiff end, as by design. Unions
are in fact, *POLICEMEN*.

Moreover, steel companies, which had vigorously resisted collective
bargaining and even, in some cases, the Co-operative Wage Study, learned
the value of the new bureaucratized work relations.

Hamilton Ontario Canada, 1946. 81 day strike, 1000 workers stayed inside
the plant, and worked. They were known as the "Loyal Order Of Scabs"

State legislation had not only bound the employers to recognize their
employees' union, but also confined workers to the rigid channels of
legally enforceable contracts and grievance procedures.

Disruptions to the flow of production could be minimized when the union
officials became the *policemen* of work relations. The steelmasters'
long-standing concerns with predictability thus had a new solution.

A visitor might also have noticed the babble of strange tongues among the
workers in the plants, since the companies had learned to make full use
of inexperienced, tractable, transient labour from continental Europe, in
order to extract the maximum from the new equipment and to push up

Twelve-hour days, harsh, autocratic supervision, and high accident rates
were the results. Mass production in the steel industry was born.

Henceforth, work relations were governed by a negotiated "rule of law"
which would guarantee equitable treatment on the shop floor, job security
and, if possible, a decent wage.

The labour movement's old adage of "a fair day's work for a fair day's
wage" had finally won some acceptance in the industry. What did not
change fundamentally, however, was the actual organization and execution
of work.

The early twentieth-century transformation of the labour process survived
intact, and the steel companies could continue to use their highly
mechanized, sped-up system of production to maintain and increase

(Sun Aug 10 1997 17:09)

it appears as if you believe that china has made no
advances from her bolt-action rifles they used to
kick-butt in korea. ( for a while )

one of her top generals said that they have been PREPARING
for the destruction of the us fleet in THEIR sphere of influence.
we calmly go about business as usual. a large scale attack
with overwhelming numbers would blast our entire asian fleet
out of the water.

we do have a capability of hitting a bullet with a bullet, sometimes.
once again, some would get through. as the hms sheffield would tell
you, it only takes one to destroy ANY ship. the chinese have overwhelming
numbers of men AND tried and true artillery, mls, and the promise that
they will use them on our fleet in the near future.

with the us being in the weakest military position since ww11, and
having a draft dodger in the cat-birds seat at the white house, we
will see major moves against us before klinton leaves office.
our enemies have helped to get him where he is now. the chinese
have been caught red-handed influence peddeling at the highest levels.
is their agenda in our best interests? do you think that they are
not aware of our capabilities from a military perspective? do you
think they would prepare for a military conflict without having
systems ready to defeat or counter our technological marvels?
will the us be able to muster the support necessary to keep
sending men out to war in CHINA, while welcoming the body bags
back home? our days as world-wide policeman are over. all we
need is one good butt-kicking ( china, in their territory ) an
maybe we will become isolationist again to resolve some endemic
problems at home. liberals need to be offered a residence in
mexico or some other 3rd world country so they can physically
help the struggling oppressed masses. let them give of themselves,
instead of giving that which was stolen from the taxpayers. let
the nwo take the blame from the diaspora that is around the next
corner. there are many with many plans, and speed, you have front
row seats. arrogance has no place in military theaters, it causes
much death and overt suffering. if they attack our fleet, you
better call captain kirk for a fresh supply of dilethium crystals.

cherokee!; ) dotssmfatimm

(Sun Aug 10 1997 17:21)
Driver of what??
cherokee - My curiosity has gotten the better of me. What is the ssmfat anyhow?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 17:36)
TED: George Cole is correct about the political future and gold. Eight years ago Russia was as far to the left as a country can get. This week, they are allowing their citizens to hold gold by a law to take effect on January 1, 1998. That is political progress that was forced by their previous political failure. It took the US 40 years to reach a similar point, to allow citizens to hold gold again.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 17:37)
TW, last year a fellow that was a director on several gold company boards said that if gold broke $425 there would be hell to pay. Since gold is a lot lower now, I expect that $425 is lower now also.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 17:39)
WSF: Ayn Rand's writing has had a positive impact on me. Her ideas on selfishness ( The Virtue of Selfishness ) was a great book that dealt with the reality of how people behave ( not the way others want them to behave, or think they should behave ) . Ludwig von Mises' book "Human Action" is another excellent book that deals with this subject. However, "Human Action" deals more with the economic aspects of the selfish nature of mankind.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 17:42)
@Elliottwaves - out on a limb
FWIW S&P futures will go up this week, making a new high of at least 975. Friday's close was 936.4
T-Bond futures will turn around this week and head up reaching a high of at least 115-16 before heading down again.
Gold futures will go down reaching an orthodox low of at least 310 to 311 before starting up on, I hope, and impressive bull run.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 17:48)
CHEROKEE: As I have said, I don't know much about military matters but I can't think of a reason why China would want a confrontation with the US.
If the answer is Taiwan I can tell you that there are already reasons to believe that there will be an improvement between Taiwan and the mainland. There is already indirect economic interaction. It may take another generation on each side but it will eventually be one China again. There is more for China to worry about internally right now. I hear that they do not have effective control of the interior.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 17:51)
do you have to do all good posting on weekends? ;-)
Wow, it looks like I missed a lot of fun on Kitco this weekend. However,
getting away was in order, and a weekend full of bay sailing, + some
mountain biking, was great too ;- )
UPS strike? I would say go teamsters! Increase pressure on benefits will
be good for gold ( BTW, I think its long overdue ) . I believe in the
opportunity for everybody, and while I agree that the teamsters
management is as much corrupt as our politicians, it may be the only way
to gain some leverage in negotiation. CEOs dont need one - they are
doing well no matter if the company is loosing or making money. BTW,
the recommendation, that instead of striking people should just leave
and get another job, does not work very well. In todays workplace you
can loose a lot of benefits when changing jobs ( unlike CEOs )

I see that the discussion on the US military superiority over China
continues. Dont forget one important issue. Looks like the "peace
through negotiation" policy of our administration did not work very well
and conflicts are breaking out all over. Due to a significant cuts in
military budgets we are currently NOT capable of involvement in multiple
conflicts. E.g., when DOD needs to make decisions like "should I fix Y2K
or pay Bosnia bill" it does not give me too much confidence that we can
go into Middle East and Far East at the same time. All it would take is
for our adversaries to coordinate their actions ( and it looks like some
of it is in making - e.g. China/Iran ) . BTW, watch for what that would
do to the inflation, balanced budget, etc. - If I took a cynical view,
it would be a good news for gold.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 18:02)
PROGNOSTICATOR: Last time you posted you commented on the Dow/Gold Ratio chart. Can you give us an Elliott Wave opinion on it?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 18:03)
@ Missing All The Action:
Re: Saturday Night. Why does all the fun occur when the library is closed!! : )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 18:05)
Cherokee ( 12:25 ) : Great overview of current military position. ..... Dovetails with an article in recent "Wash. Times Weekly" to the effect that AF morale is at a very low ebb. Rated officers are leaving in droves because of constant deployment for "meals on wheels" missions and lack proper training missions to hone air combat skills. That of course is added to the "touchy feely" outlook of general officers as a result of too much 'lacrimose' Pat Schroeder and her cotery of new camp followers.

Interestingly, it was also reported that reliable spare parts were also a problem. Overhauled engines for the C5 were suffering a 65% reject rate, on the flight line. Isn't the C5 necessary for long range deployment? I thought it was. .... Hardly worth considering, as long as current office holders achieve a relection rate in excess of 95%. ......... As usual, the 'right stuff' is still there as it has always been; where the rubber meets the road. It's too bad that leadership, continues to be a problem. The next promotion and a cushy billet remains more important than the defense of the nation. Duty, Honor, Country are no longer a part of the mix. It's new era, don't you know. ...... Dave Hackworth's URL is an interesting visit occasionally. ....

What do we learn from history? .... That we learn nothing from history. Unfortunately.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 18:10)
BTW. Where the hell is RJ? Anyone seen him? Is he suddenly keeping a low profile for some reason? .... MUst be skatin' on the boardwalk. Huh?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 18:16)
EARL: Re the Washington Times. It is owned, lock stock & barrell, by Rev. Sun Yung Moon. Everything in there meets with his personal point of view. They have uncovered some great stories and help keep Washington honest but you should be aware of their bias.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 18:21)
BYRON: I went to bed early because no one was posting. I get up and see I missed all the fun too. Go figure.

Spud Master
(Sun Aug 10 1997 18:24)
Speed: In 1942, the Japanese did not possess a missle or plane, which we cannot detect and shoot down at a considerable distance from any BG. They still stomped the hell out of us at Pearl Harbour.

Why? Because we were materially & psycologically unprepared and unable to accept that they would "cheat" like that. Not cricket, old man. Fortunately, the aim of war is to win, not play "fair". Speed, the Mainland Chinese do have a huge blue water fleet: their merchant fleet. I don't need billion dollar aircraft carriers & Aegis crusiers to destroy the US Fleet - just harmless looking merchant tankers that one day open their hold and begin pumping out self-guided mach 3 sea skimmers. By the time the reality of a high-seas Chinese sneak attack sinks in, it will be too late for the US Battle Group. No one can currently stop a simultaneous missile attack. As Cherokee said - it only takes one missile to get through to trash a capital ship - torn up electronics, antennas, computers, ruined test equipment, etc. The Chinese will be hurling a lot of relatively cheap sea-skimmers at our fleet, while we fire off ( if there is time ) a lot of VERY expensive SM-2 missiles. Now, Speed, HOW MANY SM-2 missiles can an Aegis cruiser guide at once? 5? 10? 50? 100? And how many of those SM-2 missiles will WORK, and HIT their Chinese counterparts?

These usually engagements go to the one who wields surprise. The Chinese thug-lord-political-leaders ( ala Stalin ) are doubtless cunning and ruthless individuals. By the time our naval personnel radio back to the Red House ( no doubt he will be asking the his Indonesian masters what to do ) for permission to fight back, the Pacific yellow fin tuna will be dinning on US seamen.

On the other hand, why bother with a naval sneak attack? It's likely cheaper for the Mainland Chinese to simply continue buying our politicians. Whitehouse for sale.


(Sun Aug 10 1997 18:27)
Puetz- I share your philosphy and admire your perserverence wrt the economy in general and stock market in particular. I sometimes wonder, however, if my opinions ( similar to yours ) are formed not so much based on what must happen structurally, but rather on what must happen for me to be able to tolerate the world in which I live. The current path, with little or no integrity in any facets of society, leaves me unfufilled, whether or not I am participating in the silliness of the bull market.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 18:32)
Congressman Bob: Are you sure your not posing as our former Senator Bob Packwood from the WW state of Oregon?

He was the fella inclined to include a selection of boxed wines as seduction aids, as you may recall. All of vintage quality, of course. While he was also capable of screwing us all night, ( you might recall the tax SIMPLIFICATION act of the 1980s ) his physical prowess was reportedly something less. ..... In any case, keep us updated on your affairs.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 18:36)
@ Missing All The Action:
Re: Saturday Night. Why does all the fun occur when the library is closed!! : )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 18:38)
EARL: If Congressman Bob is actually Senator Bob I am sure he will appreciate your remarks, being a "tounge in cheek" man himself.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 18:42)
@ Post Saturday Night Readings:
Aurophile: Glad to hear that you are familiar with Albert Jay. His "Memoirs" is his best ( IMHO ) . He also wrote a book on education in the U.S. but I have never been able to get my hands on it . Probably out of print. But he did paint a "fine" picture of the educational process in the country at his time. ( Training process really. ) Would have loved to have heard his comments on the TV media industry. Sure he would have had a few observations. 5th avenue must have thought they landed in nirvana when the television came on scene!! : )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 18:45)
As a person with immediate German ancestry I can tell you EMU is dying if not dead.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 18:46)
@ Time Travel:
My 18:36 post. Duplicate of earlier one. Mystery to me.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 18:48)

I believe that you have touched upon a very important point with respect to this group and its diverse views of markets, politics etc. I believe that many of the opinions here are formed not from a dispassionate analysis of the facts which are in evidence but from an emotional desire to have the world conform to ones own perception as to what would be good, right or just. This can at its simplest form simply be the talking of one's book, or a more complex phenomenon where we try to find value in our own selves by creating a world in which our deeds and thoughts would be deemed worthy. I have found it to be a rewarding excercise to examine my investment rationals in the context of my own emotional needs. It is surprising how much one's emotions can influence ones decision process even when intellectually it is well appreciated that this is not recipe for market success.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 18:50)
BYRON: I was in the public school system during the time Mr, Nock was alive, starting in 1938. We had two options in high school. A commercial course or a college course. I know that I got a better public education than my kids.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 19:01)
WW: I saw this earlier but did not post it as it did not reference gold. Your comment may be correct, many think the EMU will never happen. Perhaps because of the political independence described in this article.

European Central Bank: Beyond


The US Fed is a better model for Europe's central bank than the
Bundesbank, writes David Mackie

The European Central Bank ( ECB ) will arguably be the most powerful
central bank in the world. It will set interest rates for an economy roughly
the size of the US, but it will have even greater independence than the
Federal Reserve. Like the US Fed and the German Bundesbank, the
ECB will have the freedom to define its own monetary target and the
independence to set interest rates to meet this objective. In addition, the
ECB will be insulated from political influence in three ways.

It will have no obligation to publish any meaningful account of its
deliberations or justification of its actions. It will have little real
accountability, either to elected European governments - via the council of
ministers - or to the European Parliament. And its mandate will be
enshrined in primary European constitutional legislation ( the Maastricht
treaty ) - and hence almost impossible to challenge, or change.

When this powerful constitution is combined with the hawkish culture in
European central banking circles, it is evident that the ECB will take a very
tough line against inflation, regardless of what European politicians might

Central banks' constitutions should seek to ensure independence, openness
and accountability. In practice, the ECB's constitution emphasises
independence at the expense of the other two. In this respect, its design
reflects the views of most of those who advocate a powerful central bank.

Yet it is clear that all three characteristics - independence, openness and
accountability - influence how a central bank behaves. This can be seen by
comparing the two institutions that are usually lauded as examples of good
central-banking practice: the US Fed and the German Bundesbank.

Both are independent in terms of setting and pursuing their monetary
objectives. Yet, in terms of openness and accountability, these two central
banks are at opposite ends of the spectrum.

The US system is transparent. The minutes of the monetary meetings are
published fairly quickly; ultimately, so is all the relevant information used in
the policy-making process ( in the so-called Green Book ) . And the Fed is
accountable to Congress, through the highly visible Humphrey-Hawkins
testimony, and through Congressional oversight of the Fed's budget and
regulatory activities.

In contrast, the German system puts almost no emphasis at all on openness
and accountability. The central bank publishes little information which really
explains its actions, and it is not directly accountable either to the German
government or to the German parliament.

The differences between the monetary frameworks in the US and Germany
clearly reflect history. The German monetary framework is imbued with the
memory of two hyperinflations this century and with the political
subordination of the Reichsbank - the predecessor of the Bundesbank -
during the 1930s.

Given this, it is perhaps understandable why the German central bank is
insulated so much from the influence of politicians and why, in the German
model, openness and accountability are seen as threats to central-bank
independence. It is only possible to insulate the central bank in this way
because the Bundesbank retains enormous public prestige.

In contrast, the US system reflects a society which puts a strong emphasis
on checks and balances at all levels of government, and which demands
that the public has a right to be informed about government decisions. An
open central bank fits comfortably into its broader political framework.

In addition, the memory of the 1930s depression legitimises the political
accountability of the Fed. In the US it is clearly recognised that monetary
policy can be too tight, as well as too loose. Indeed, the joint tasks of price
stability and full employment are given to the central bank in the Federal
Reserve Act. This helps explain why, Fed chairman Mr Alan Greenspan
recently felt the need publicly to defend the decision to raise interest rates
against critics who thought the Fed was holding back economic growth.

How does the ECB measure up? Its constitutional structure reflects the
history of European monetary union. The blueprint for Emu was drawn up
by a committee of central bankers, who were inclined to stress
independence and downplay the role of openness and accountability. And
given the dominant role of the Bundesbank in the Emu, it is not surprising
that the Delors Report suggested a Bundesbank-like constitution for the
ECB. It should also be recognised that the Maastricht treaty was signed in
the aftermath of German reunification and the collapse of communism. To
the extent that some countries, for example France, may have had
reservations about the power of the ECB, these concerns were ignored
due to the overriding political requirement to lock a united Germany into
the EU.

As a result, the ECB's constitution is based closely on the German model.
It is independent. But it is neither open nor accountable. The Maastricht
treaty expressly forbids the publication of the minutes of the meetings of the
ECB's Governing Council, preventing the ECB from following the more
open policies practiced in the US. The architects of the ECB, following the
earlier architects of the Bundesbank, took the view that when it comes to
central bank independence, more is unambiguously better.

This extremely powerful institution will be inhabited by a hawkish group of
central bankers. Across Europe, central bankers are of one mind when it
comes to their role. They view monetary policy as a matter of ensuring
stable monetary growth in the medium term which will result in low

In something of a contrast with the US Fed, most European central
bankers play down the role of monetary policy in managing the business
cycle. The combination of a powerful central bank and a hawkish culture
among central bankers is often ignored in discussions about whether the
euro will be a strong or weak currency. It seems likely that the central
bankers of the ECB will not only want to achieve low inflation. They will
be able to as well.

But the particular structure of the ECB's constitution may raise tensions in
the medium term: Emu's monetary constitution may ultimately be viewed as
unnecessarily secretive and insensitive to legitimate demands that
institutions should be accountable.

The Bundesbank model has worked well in Germany because of German
history and the enormous popular respect that the central bank commands.
It is far from clear that this model is appropriate for a broader group of
countries that do not share these particular historical concerns.

In some senses greater transparency and accountability do act as a
constraint on independence. But at the same time, greater transparency
and accountability would significantly increase the legitimacy of the new
European Central Bank. And in the long run, it is the legitimacy of the new
central bank which will ultimately determine the success or failure of the
Emu project.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 19:03)
smoke gets in your eyes
Cherokee: Friday, I responded to another negative comment about the U.S. Navy. I am specifically speaking of the capabilities of the 1997 U.S. Navy. You have brought up the British navy, old army rifles, millions of chinese infantry and artillery. Do you really know anything about the U.S. NAVY? Nothing you mentioned has anything to do with the NAVY. The navy won't have to fight chicom artillery, infantry, or millions of men, unless they all suddenly learn to float at high speeds. There is no comparison between the British fleet at the Falklands and the British fleet today, much less our fleets ( plural, because we have more than one ) . Can you name and/or describe a single Chinese vessel, or weapon system, recount it's range, capabilities etc? I suspect that the answer is no. You can't pound an issue until you know something about the issue. What I am hearing from you is a transference of negative mood from U.S. politics ( sorry Mooney ) and pending economic volatility, to an undeserved and unlearned opinion about a truly outstanding assembly of men and women in service to their country with an arsenal that is second to none. Clinton is deserving of your scorn, but get some facts about the U.S. Navy before placing your bets on the Chinese even scoring a near miss. You neglected to answer my query as to what scenario would bring one or more of our BGs into conflict close to China. I'll cheerfully pound the issue with you and get a navy tech to help tomorrow, but get some facts or we are just hollering to be heard. Just to help you get started, we ( the U.S. ) have 14 carriers and they ( the Chinese ) have 0. We have 3 more in the works, with the Harry Truman due out in 1998. The Ronald Reagan is next ( too bad, WW ) . The Chinese have none in the works and so on. Glad your back on board, BBL.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 19:11)
@ Aussie
To George Cole
I have a chart of Australia's Gold Index going back to '85.
It would be a good chart to post here as it shows the dramatic downdraft
experienced in '87 in Gold shares in Australia.
Also daily stats on the gold index can be found at

If you or anyone else would like a copy of the Australian Gold Index email me on


(Sun Aug 10 1997 19:18)
@ Imprinted:
Donald: I was raised in a Catholic orphanage from the age of 3 to 12. Boy, did I get an education.!!!! : ) Out of here for the day. Tomorrow. Boom- Boom. Maybe.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 19:53)
SPEED, CHEROKEE: We can not consider a future war the way we have looked at them in the past. It is not an Army-Navy game with a tailgate party where we cheer for our side. The next war could be the end of civilization, all life as we know it on the planet. Most wars of the past were trade wars. Part of my reason for being involved with economics, and with gold, is because I feel that an economic event could lead to the destruction of the planet. Gold has the power to enforce a non-political resolution to many of the things that have in the past led to wars. It has the power to achieve the things that the liberals want, and the things that the conservatives want. Gold is an automatic computer, it rewards and it punishes without the bias of race, color, creed, national origin, or heredity. It is totally impassionate about all of the frailities of humans. It doesn't care where you live, or where you went to school. It doesn't care who you know or how many guns you have. It doesn't care where you worship or if you worship at all. It is fair and it is honest. It rewards hard work and it punishes stupidity.

Gold is not perfect. It can be stolen and you can be cheated out of it unfairly. It knows nothing of rules. That is where government comes in. It is the role of government to properly resolve those events of dishonesty or misunderstanding that are a part of all human interaction.

I know that I describe a world that is presently far from reality. I understand that military readiness is also part of the responsibility of government. That does not mean that we can not start thinking about a perfect world of the future. I mentioned to Cherokee once before about the indian belief of land ownership. They felt that they were only temporary custodians of the land, they did not have a sense of ownership. We do not own this planet either. It is our responsibility to do whatever we can to pass it on to our heirs in better condition than we found it.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 19:55)
Gold vs. CPI
Donald - I printed, taped, and studied the DOW/gold charts you refered to. If you recall my comments on the CPI-adjusted DOW, I said the middle of the channel between the cyclical highs and lows was DOW3500 for 1997, and that a "grinding bear market" would take the DOW down to 2000 in year 2013. It is hard to eyeball things on this chart because is is semi-log, but I would guess the median is around a ratio of 8. DOW at 3500 and gold at $440 would do this. Sounds OK. Your the low DOW/gold ratio is about 2. DOW2000 and gold $1000. This work for you?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 19:55)
On a more relevant note: China's intentions with respect to Gold.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 20:00)
aurophile ( i ) :
Byron: Here's a Nockism for you: "Circumstances being as they are, one has no trouble about seeng that a State-controlled system of popular instruction is bound to lean heavily to the side of training, since the trainable masses stand immeasurably in excess of the educable few."
Memoirs of a Superfluous Man, 14,v.

Now, of course there are no trainable amongst the masses either, only indoctrinable.


Retook Econ 101 along with 2&3 after twenty years a few years back.
Funny, no mention of FA Hayek, arguably one of the two most influential
figures in that discipline of the twentieth century, along with his
nemesis, Lord Keynes. Not in the text, glossary, index nor nine months
of evening economics classes. Or Von Mises et al, the whole Austrian
School nor the thinking of its inheritor, the Chicago School. Sins of
omission, I guess.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 20:13)
@ The Golden Calf
Donald: I have never read so many anthropomorphisms about gold in my life. A reality check finds that gold is inanimate, lifeless, unable to reward or punish, unable even to move itself, even if cast into an idol and worshipped. Gold stops wars only if it is used to buy off the aggresser. The real God esteems gold so lightly that He paves His streets with it. Stay cool man.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 20:21)
2BOR2B: Whenever you post something that require me to click on the "more words follow" I get an error and can't read the rest????

(Sun Aug 10 1997 20:25)
DONALD @HOME & your 8/10/97, 19:53 post: Sounds like you're assigning to gold, the powers of an objective spiritual law, and perhaps of a condemning, self-righteous god. With all the terrifying attributes you attribute to my precious horde of gold coins & tiny ingots of bullion, and my mining shares 'to boot', I wonder if I should just dump them all here, right at the bottom, and head for the highest hills !

(Sun Aug 10 1997 20:25)
Speed... I'm Canadian and look at things a little different, if there is a confrontation between the U.S and China, it won't matter who has what.
Nuclear power is the weapon of the 90's and if China get's desperate , who knows???

(Sun Aug 10 1997 20:25)

With the casino once again up in running it looks like the weekend has not brought out the bargain hunters. SPU -385.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 20:28)
Tokyo down over 300 points

(Sun Aug 10 1997 20:29)
China as a competitor
It is a well understood axiom of business that having a strong competitor is healthy. Without a stong competitor companies soon become arrogant, sloppy, neglectful of their people, and begin to value talent and competence less than brown nosing and politicing.

I think it is the same in the global environment. Without such a a strong, dangerous competitor, we get leaders like Clinton and the rest of the Washington mush-for-lunch bunch. Our military becomes weak and demoralized. We lose core competance. We accept poor and ineffective schooling of our children, and deemphasize the basic math, engineering, and science skills that are necessary to keep us globally competitive.

Short of an actual war, I think having a strong economic and military power such as China is becoming can do us a lot of good.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 20:33)

Since you are looking at a chart of the Dow in the constant dollars, it may be more appropriate to consider the denominator rather than the numerator. The real damage done to the chart in the seventies was from the soaring CPI not the declining Dow. This may well turn out to be the way this one turns out over the next decade or so. High prices for stuff, increasing labor costs and stagnant profitability. Since this is the path of least resistance for the governmental debt piles it is the most likely outcome.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 20:34)
Speed - Ms. Judy Shelton structures much the same arguments in her
book MONEY MELTDOWN; Restoring Order to the Global Currency System
in making her case for a return to a classical gold standard or at
least something of a mooring for currencies. With a greater depth and breadth of knowledge, clarity of thought thus writing, she's quite
persuasive about war, fairness, and the liberal/conservative cases
for a rational currency base and her iconoclastic view doesn't come off as the ravings of a lunatic. Though a knowledge and awareness of the seriousness of the issue one comes away with can easily sound that way
in less capable hands.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 20:39)
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(Sun Aug 10 1997 20:41)
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(Sun Aug 10 1997 20:42)
Donald - I dunno, I'm using the latest version of Netscape...?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 20:44)

Might I suggest leaving out the question mark from your handle. It would appear that this is a special character in the operating system with regard to file names. Since the posts are stored in the database using the handle as part of a filename your handle apparently creates an invalid filename or causes the retrieval program to fail.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 20:44)
DAVID, SPEED: I do not believe I am assigning any powers to gold in the metaphysical sense, that certainly was not my intent. I am merely recounting its actual role in 6000 years of history and suggesting that it would be beneficial to mankind to let its role be reinstated by mutual agreement of all the nations of the world.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 20:47)
@peace through strength
M. Graves: Your point is well-taken. The discussion began Friday, when I objected to a remark about non-nuclear naval capabilities. The chances of a confrontation with China are slight, of an all-out war, remote. One reason for this is that we have a strong deterrent in our military. I am not in favor of sabre rattling, but do favor a ready, strong defense.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 20:48)
Speed - probability of conflict?
Speed: I have no doubt on my mind that the US Navy have some of the best
men and the best war technology there is. I know, I worked with some
of them. OTOH, to win a conflict, you have to make a decision to use
them  and to spend a lot of money. Yes, the decision was made to build
two new carriers, but this decision was made not only on the strategy
( though if I remember right some of the navy strategists were arguing
for shift to smaller battle ships ) but also on a political support
( read jobs ) .
Using this power in military conflict ( real conflict, not just to flex
our muscles on some Somalia coast ) will be a different issue. The Desert
Storm would never happen if the agreement to share the cost was not
reached. The US would not do it alone without financial support from
our allies. To go into major conflict ( e.g. China over Taiwan ) the
support will not be there ( domestic or from abroad ) .

Other than that, I agree with Donald, that the major conflict is very
unlikely from either side. Though we may see a lot of muscle flexing
and some parties taking advantage of it.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 20:53)
Aha. Relatively speaking - Talking to politicians about the economy is like talking with eight-year-olds about sex. They have heard all the words, but they haven't clue. M.A.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:00)
Before I get hit with a cream filled eclair, let me state that I am in favor of a return to a gold standard. Donald has made the case quite well. I think many of you ascribe too much power to precious metals and neglect the bent nature of man. Commodity based money restrains but does not prevent the various economic evils like inflation, depression etc. Excessive credit expansion can still happen with a gold standard, human nature will find a way.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:01)
Donald@Home, 8/9/97 20:44 post:
Your 'sugestion' that all the nations of the world agree on this universally accepted standard of commerce, exchange, and preservation of wealth/savings, i could not be in more agreement with. However, it is not up to gold, to assert this role, and judge with such power & equanimity, as you've suggested. It is only upon the willingness, whether willingly given, or 'dictated' by the winds of change, that the 'triumph' of a world-wide monetary standard/system, based on gold, will establish
itself. Not likely in this century, nor perhaps even in the century to come, it will depend on the consciousness, and intent, of sufficient numbers of the peoples of the world, to wish to live in integrity, and in harmony with such truth. Until then, the rich, will get richer, and the poor will always be, with us.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:01)
Ebn has gold up $3.50.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:01)
DJ: I hope you found the chart worth the work. I am not sure I understand your comment. It seems as though you feel Dow 3500 is a bottom. I think not but in truth I can't be sure. It would seem to me that a bottom for gold, and by default the Dow Gold Ratio, has to reflect all the U.S. currency actually printed, and still in circulation, since we came off gold in 1933. That is not M1, M2, or M3, but existing currency only. In other words, gold is fixed, currency fluctuates. Today the market says that is $325. I think that the market is searching for the correct number.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:01)
It looks good for gold
So far all markets down ( Japan, Australia, New Zeland, etc. ) and gold holding steady.

George Cole
(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:03)
the right
Mike Sheller; There is right and RIGHT. I AM NOT TALKING ABOUT THE LIBERTARIAN RIGHT AS REPRESENTED BY PEOPLE SUCH AS YOURSELF. I am talking about the the corporatist right that dominates both parties today. They don't give a hoot about the indivdual, the living standards of American workers, or values of any kind -- just the bottom line of the Fortune 500.

OLDMAN: I get the distinct impression you are a Ross Perot supporter. He is not my ideal President, but would be MUCH better than the current crowd.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:07)
Speed, I'd never throw my eclairs at you, or anyone else; but I'd gladly trade them for a few more ounces of gold. ... right here, right now.

George Cole
(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:10)
Nick: Thanks for the Aussie site! Just what the doctor ordered.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:13)
@Mike Sheller
EBN gold up 2.65 and Silver up 2 cents...Hi Mike! My ISP has been down for six hours and just noticed yer missive...Will you got the exact time commin back at ya....Asian equity markets down so far ...

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:13)
GSC is right and I believe he like myself is in the progressive pro-working people anti corporate elitest camp. Anybody who spouts this garbage about greater effeiciency and "new era technology" as a reason for destroying workers lives is a traitor to the cause of freedom. GO TEAMSTERS GO RON CAREY GO GEPHARDT AND KENNEDY!!!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:14)
George S. Cole -- Corporations have their own brand of politics, coporate socialism. They claim to capitalist business men, but... they're really socialists. The will use government to pass enviromental laws that they can afford, but will put their smaller competitors out of business or hamper them significantly. Then they will claim kudos for 'doing the right thing', all the while concentrating power for themselves. This is but one example. I see it all the time in 'corporate America'. If you want to get ahead, you have to play their game. If you don't, you're marked. Most corporate types, from mangers to CEOs, are not 'conservative' or 'right wingers', they are usually statists.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:15)
Evening Bro!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:16)
DAVID: I attempted to distinguish between the ideal of the future and the reality of the present. It is not going to happen overnight, or mabye not at all. My post was meant to show how seriously this gold business is to mankind. We have this wonderful tool in our toolbox and only have to pick it up to begin the repairs. The discussion about a future war gave me that opportunity. I am older and have had an opportunity to develop a philosophy, right or wrong. I am trying to influence those of you who are younger and still have your philosophy under development. My generation did not do a very good job with its century; I expect your generation will learn from our mistakes and do a better job with yours.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:19)
Ted: It looks like the markets are starting out tonight where they left off Friday -- stocks down, gold and silver up!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:19)
The discussion about China/US military confrontation is interesting, but I recall a post here some time ago ( Polar Bear, Milhouse, Panda? ) to the effect that a direct confrontation is inconsistent with Eastern philosophy about how to achieve one's goals. From this point of view, why would the Chinese choose to take on the US in such a manner. Personally, I am watching for increasing diplomatic ties between China, Russia, Japan, India and even Taiwan. Then the US becomes irrelevant in the Chinese sphere of influence and in the meantime they can still take advantage of us economically and gain control in their sphere of influence. The Japanese aren't ready to say this ( I think! ) but I don't think they would miss the USA one bit if they could get free of our influence.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:21)
Ted: Is that up $2.65 from Friday's New York gold close?

George Cole
(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:22)
gold price
Gold up 30 cents on DBC. I have found they are more accurate than EBN

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:24)
DONALD! We are all under development, including our philosophies, and all our philosphers, including you, and, including me. None of us are older, or younger. We are all timeless, just like gold. It is truely, just that simple. And as you already know, the truth, will set us free.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:25)
Donald - the generation and before did a pretty job this century getting
the order correct between which comes first, the individual or the state,
beginning with Flanders Fields where the poppies grow
Row on row.

It's hard to see an individual of any generation remain confused
about what drove the conflagrations and mass horrors; and worse piss
on their ancestor's price.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:27)
2BO2B: Can you try that Judy Shelton post again or a shorter version of it? I still can't get the last part on the screen. She knows her stuff.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:29)
@Mike Sheller
Thanks Mike! Nice ta hear from ya....

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:31)
Miro: I agree

Reb: Keep in mind that Japan and China are mortal enemies. Japan invaded China during WWII and really tore up the country. Since WWII, China has fought a civil war, and been in shooting conflicts with India, S. Korea and U.S., Vietnam and Tibet not to mention many border "skirmishes" with the old Soviet Union, now Russia. There will be wars and rumors of wars until the end of time. If China is circumspect, it is only out of respect for strength.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:33)
Hi Steve! Don't honestly know....just got online after a six hour blackout, went to EBN and that's how it read...George's DBC of up .30 sounds more rational!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:34)
"One country under the S&P 500 with liberty and justice for them" Great quote I saw today.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:35)
S&P futures are now trading down 3.40. They were down almost 7.00 at one point shortly after the opening tonight. Looks like volatility is increasing. Gold only up .50 against NY close.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:36)
Mac, Mike, oldman, aurophile, WW, George, Byron, Puetz and ALL - I do not object to reasoned, pertinent political comment, ( such as Puetz' 16:32, oldman's 16:33, Jack's 16:19 or George's 16:02 ) , its just that most of us here have been exposed to the on-going American political debate about which party has the better 'moral' record to the point of exhaustion. Consider for a moment; would we North Americans on Kitco like to be exposed constantly to the intricities of the present ( 90's ) and past ( 1900-1990 ) political machinations of, for example, the various political parties of France or Italy? If about 10 posters from these countries started up a dialogue that seemed to ( at peak times ) take up about 90% of the space that Bart has been so kind as to give us and, this nonsense were to continue week after week, month after month, would it not be an unbearable intrusion on the time of all others who come here from every other country except for France or Italy? This is, in effect, exactly the show we are quite often putting on for the rest of the world. A little - O.K. A lot - ????. Tripe is tripe.
Speed @19:03 - No apology necessary. Your analysis has pertinent aspects sadly lacking in the 'Who's better - Repukeagains/Dummercrats' controversy which refuses to leave these pages to head to the fertiliser factory where it belongs.
Donald @18:50 - "I know that I RECEIVED a SUPERIOR public education than my CHILDREN" :- )
D.A. @18:48 - Right on Bro! Where were you when I needed you? I refer to my Flagging fortunes. Ah, but the emotions are fun and the spice of life, n'est pas?
Earl ( and DJ ) - Re: RJ - I too have been wondering as he didn't even put in an appearance after I posted a few lines in his honour, ( take note Honour - not Honor - whomever was trying to learn Canadian - English actually ) , that he had requested de moi ( Miss Piggy - French ) .
RJ - Get yer butt back here! ( American )
Prognosticator @17:42 - What you describe may or may not happen ( Hamlet ) but it is similar to what I have described as the 'second shoe dropping'. If it does play out that way I'll be in gold and silver with both feet! :- )
Half an hour to game time. See ya. ( Canadian - recently being purloined by Americans )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:36)
Donald -- buy/read the book. :- ) She's pretty savvy in her niche, and recognized so. Last I saw she's teaching at a University in Mexico City.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:37)
Earl: RJ has gone into hiding since gold started rallying this week. He made some strongly bearish statements recently.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:38)
PatS: I have to be careful what I say. When I said "my generation" I was talking about the whole planet, not just Americans. Hitler, Mussolini, Tojo, Eichmann, Stalin et al are part of my planetary generation.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:39)
Donald - Don't start throwing around the M words. You'll lose me. Mine was a simple mechanical exercise. No more significant than that. If you draw a line through the center of the CPI-adjusted historical DOW, it intersects 1997 at the level 3500. If you do the same with your DOW/gold ratio chart ( not so easy ) my WAG is that the mean is around a ratio of 8. With DOW at 3500 and the ratio at 8, this would put gold at $437.

If the cyclical nature of the DOW adjusted chart is extended, and a "grinding bear market" is assumed, as opposed to a crash, the DOW would hit bottom sometime around the year 2013, at a level of DOW 2000. Looking again at your ratio chart, the bottoms are roughly at a ratio of 2. ( I think 1980 was an overshoot ) . With DOW at 2000 and a ratio of 2, gold would be at $1000.

Is this exercise of any value? Some I think -- if you place a value on history. For instance, I was surprised that the market could drop by more than 50%, and gold could still be in the low $400's and still be consistant with historical DOW/gold ratios.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:41)
WSF: Our day may finally be arriving -- marketwise. Politically, depressions normally turn a country toward socialism or capitalism. In the 1930s, the US turned toward socialism. In 1989, Russia slowly turned toward reforms in the direction of capitalism. Ditto for Chile in the 1980s. It will be interesting to see if the US moves back toward capitalism once the coming depression takes hold.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:45)
George S. Cole @ 21:03
The Golden Insanity
" O,let American be America again-
The land that never has been yet-
And yet must be--the land where every man is free.
The land that's mine--the poorman's, Indians,
Negro's, ME
Who made America,
Whose sweat and blood, whose faith and pain,
Whose hand at the foundry, whose plow in the rain,
Must bring back our mighty dream again......

O, yes,
I say it plain,
America never was America to me,
And yet I swear this oath--
America will be !"

Langston Hughes

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:47)
@chemical lobotomies
Depression? What depression. We have PROZAC!!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:49)
STEVE:: Which way a country turns depends on which force is deemed to hold primary influence before the depression. Hate to disappoint you but most Americans do not view the present situation as socialist but rather deficit reducing and downsizing efficiency capitalism.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 21:58)
WSF ( 18:27 ) : Your words are a loud echo of my own sentiments. Speaking for myself only, it amounts to nothing more than romantic foolishness .... and yet; it cannot be gotten rid of. .... It also forms a poor basis for a rational investment strategy as well. If only because we will likely never see the world we envision. ........ Too much Ayn Rand. I'm sure of it.

Puetz: I agree on the impact of the "Virtue of Selfishness". I bought a copy in the Toronto airport in 1967 and could not put it down. For good or ill, it changed my way of thinking forever.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:01)
EBN reads:Gold up 3.20......Nikkei down 359....

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:01)
DJ: OK, I see what you are doing with the line etc. You seem to assume we will have a broad top like 1966-1973 that stretches things out to 2013. I suppose that is possible but you are placing a lot of faith in the governments and central banks of the world to work together to paper things over and patch things up. It is true they have been doing that for many years and getting away with it.

My readings and postings of the world daily news tells me that things are at the boiling point. It is not just Mexico this time. Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Japan, Kenya are all coming apart at the same time. Japan is an important player, it is not a Mexico. Then there is the US Bonds, consumer debt, the Middle East, the EMU, all that hitting the fan at once. Also you have a US stock market that has exceeded every traditional measure of excess established since the buttonwood tree. For more gasoline on the fire we have a possible Washington scandal erupting into impeachment. I just can't look at all that and peg 2013. Next Tuesday seems more like reality. That implies a spike top more than a broad top for this cycle.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:05)
Inflation or deflation. That is the question.
D.A. - I wish I had the answer to that. One of the investment decisions I have been wrestling with is that I have a piece of waterfront property on Whidby Island that is worth quite a lot. Do I sell it, pay capital gains, and put the money to work, or do I leave it? Time is on my side, as higher property prices are creeping up the island ( mine is on the north end farthest from Seattle ) . If you or anyone at Kitco has any thought on this, I would sincerely appreciate your input.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:08)
George Cole:

The __Prudent Bear Fund__ can they go long the mrkt if they think conditions warrents? It seems they can buy warrents and futures

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:09)
Mooney@Politics, 8/10/97, 21:36 post...But Mooney!, this is freedom !!! I agree that we salute kitco, et al; but this is freedom: it is messy, self-righteous, rambunctuous, foolish, stupid, incoherent, forgiving, creative, productive, generous, compassionate, and sublime.
Democrats & Republicans must continue to sling it out; it is but a metaphor of our current reality's duality. And in a world of peoples and nations increasingly infatuated with, compelled by, dedicated to, lost in, sacrificing for, terrified by, FREEDOM, we must be willing to put up with a lot, perhaps everything ...perhaps even Democrats & Republicans...... ( -just, 'be secure, in your "gold" ' ) .

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:09)
Donald ( 19:53 ) : In tune with an earlier post of your's, 19:53 is another indication that whatever the source and content of your education, we are all much richer for it. Whoever taught you is now teaching us all.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:11)
Mooney: Hear hear. I have been lurking here for over a year and couldn't agree more with your 21:36 post.

All: It has been deduced that recent incidences of the XAU performing well might predict some future upward movement in gold. But surely with the price of gold staying about the same for the last 3-4 weeks and the stockmarket making new highs, isn't the strength in gold stocks really only attributable to general stockmarket bullishness? I fail to see why strength in gold stocks ( historical and present ) is due to anything more than a bit of courage returning after a ( sharp ) fall in bullion has previously resulted in a pessimistic outlook for mining companies.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:13)
TED, Puetz -- The EBN price is the spot gold price. Yes it is 'up' from Fridays close. The DBC quote that GSC likes to use, is currently the December gold future contract GCZ7. It's somewhere around $330 at the moment. Hope this helps.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:16)
Yen up 1%, DM up 0.5% against the US dollar. Does anyone know what the long bond is doing?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:21)
Donald -- Try for bonds.

Just for comparison;

Spot gold at 326.90 up $3.05
GCQ7 at 326.1 up $4.60
GCZ7 at 331.1 up $.70

Long Bond at 6.628% -0.007

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:25)
PJ @ 22:11 post:: are you kidding !? Mining shares are under heavy accumulation, by big, big money; for the last 6 weeks this has been obvious; for the last 6 months, this has been more subtle; for the last 6 trading days, the fuse has been lit: blast-off ! ( Mining shares are the lead-scout, for every bullish turn-around/bottom, in precious metals; you distract yourself with such conjecture as your 22:11 post. )

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:26)
Next weeks economic calendar

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:27)
George Cole-what's the url for the DBC? Thanks

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:28)
With my portfolio at an all time high, I feel motivated
to thank all of you here at Kitco, for the great posts
and info you provided. A SPECIAL thanks to George Cole
and Gold Eagle for an effort that only can be decribed

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:28)
@Hang Seng
Hang Seng down 311.70 ( 1.9% ) ....Things a little volatile tonight!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:30)
D.A. with property in Washington:

From a long run perspective I cast my lot with Aurophile and the long wave up, which should produce higher commodity and stuff prices. Real estate is most definitely stuff, so it should do well in this environment. I don't know the particulars of the property that you own nor do I have any clue as to how it fits into the rest of your assets so I couldn't begin to hazard a guess as to whether to tell you to sell it or not. My bias in this environment would be towards agricultural land and towards upscale property. A world which has just taken on a few billion new capitalists is going to produce some very wealthy individuals and a mass of people whose living standards are going to increase from a very low level thus implying an outsize demand for stuff. I think the real opportunities are at the top and the bottom of the real estate pyramid. The risk to the top end of the market is a serious decline on Wall St. causing some forced liquidations and also removing a sizeable demand segment, those who have been wallowing at the Wall St. money trough. I can't figure out any real risk to the agricultural land sector as the demand is growing radically and the supply is shrinking.

P.S. If you could change your handle I would be most appreciative. Since I often read my own posts I will become hopelessly confused as to what I have written if I have not in fact written it. See.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:32)
Long Bond yield is 6.628, virtually unchanged, but the dollar is down 0.5% to 1%. Fed at work?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:36)

According to globex the dollar is up vs both the Yen and the DM.

I'm off to sleep but tomorrow I shall pose to you a few questions regarding gold as money. To allow you to prepare for battle, I let you know beforehand that I think that a commodity based money system is not good. Bon Soir.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:38)
david: I still fail to see why gold shares going up is a reliable predictor of future bullion rises and not merely an indicator that the price has stopped falling for the moment.

One thing for sure is that there have been many optimists here picking the bottom all the way down from $400 last year. I'd just like to understand why this one is a better reason to buy bullion than some of the previous ones - nothing personal!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:39)
Maylisia down 2.48% Do you hear a Ringgit-ing in your ears?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:41)

Whats happening on Vashon, price wise?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:41)
Donald -- Overseas markets aren't that big ( deep, liquid, whatever the term you want to use ) . Globex isn't that reliable due to the relativly few contracts that trade after hours compared to the day trade. After hours on DBC suffers the same problem, to few contracts traded to make a serious conclusion on.

Lurker -- try this

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:41)
WW: It doesn't matter what people perceive. Reality is what counts. People can think the US is capitalistic all they want. But it is not. The degree of socialism in a country is determined by the amount of government spending relative to total spending. I don't know the exact numbers ( maybe someone out there can help me ) , but something like 30% to 35% of all spending is either federal, state, or local spending. Hence the US is 1/3 socialistic, 2/3 capitalistic. That's in stark contrast to 70 years ago -- when 95% of spending was in private hands.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:41)

the point here is one of relativity.

the argentines were sporting some hot basic systems that
kicked the brits butts. the brits were using state of art ( at that time )
detection and suppression systems to counter threats to
their main battle groups. they were overcome, and lost
many lives and material as grave testament to their arrogance.

i have never stated that the us navy is not the best naval
force in the world, and the most powerful to boot. projection
of this power on the other side of the world in ANOTHERS
sphere of influence has worked many times in the past.
the mitigating factors with china are quite different
this time.

china has historical ties with taiwan and other non-communist
neighbors. they have a score to settle with japan over their
many invasions. it would not take a lot for the us navy to
come steaming to the rescue, again. they have many arenas
with which to create the opportunity with which to draw in,
and show who controls the waters around taiwan, hong kong,
AND the japans. don't forget about indonesia and the vast
oilfields in this region of the world. what happened when
china told the us not to steam through the taiwan straits?
well?? they can, with missles, blast anything that floats
in their arena. can china project power outside of her
soi excluding the nuclear threat? absolutely not.
could a us navy bg steam into the taiwan straits and survive
a major military confrontation? absolutely not. their
land based systems would annihalate the bg in due course.

don't assume you know more than you do of others. you don't.
read all data to stay with the train of thought.
THEIR sphere dude, their sphere.

the brits vs. the argentines

relative to

the us vs. the chinese.

the technological advantage enjoyed by the brits in the maldives
is probably close to the current gap enjoyed by the us over the
chinese. a major surprise attack by the chinese on ONE of our battle
groups in THEIR sphere of influence ( soi ) , would be one-sided and quite
decisive. the next battle group would require another chapter to this
be written. our vessels, during a conflict with china, in their
soi, would be bottom dwellers. facts, only facts.

cherokee!; ) reader-of-the-book, chaser-of-the-fact, smoker-of-the-truth

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:47)
Glassman likes gold stocks now
comments on Freeport-McMoRan, Placer Dome, Newmont, Homestake,
Barrick, Euro-Nevada, Franco-Nevada from today's Washington
Post business section article by James Glassman:
begin quote{
Gold stocks: How low can the price of gold go? It recently was
$318 an ounce, a 12-year record, down an incredible 25 percent since 1990.
Gold has long been considered the ultimate safe haven because
it's supposed to be a constant store of value in a world in which
governments have an incentive to dilute their currencies.
Unfortunately, gold -- and gold stocks -- have had a terrible time
in the past decade. Precious metals mutual funds, for example,
have fallen an average of 1.9 percent annually since 1987 -- and
24 percent in the past 12 months.

But gold is so low that it may be reaching a bottom. At any rate,
unlike high-flying stocks, gold doesn't have a long way to fall.
There are still some courageous gold bulls out there, including
Adrian Day, who edits the Investment Analyst newsletter
( 410-234-0691 ) . He recently reminded readers that sentiment on
gold has gone to extreme negative levels. "So, clearly," he wrote,
"this is a good time to buy gold bullion and bullion-type coins as a
longer-term investment. It's also a great time to accumulate the
best of the gold stocks."

Topping the list is Barrick Gold Corp., generally considered the
best-managed gold-mining and producing company, with 11 sites
in North and South America. The stock has fallen more than 25
percent since December.

Charles Allmon, a notorious bear who has been an uncanny
stock picker for more than 20 years, says that Franco-Nevada
Mining Corp. and its companion company, Euro-Nevada, "are
the only two gold shares in my managed accounts." They also
comprise two of only six stocks in the model portfolio of his
newsletter, Growth Stock Outlook.

Franco-Nevada, which like its sister trades on the Toronto Stock
Exchange, has increased revenue and profit for 11 straight years
despite the declining price of gold. In late June management
predicted that cash flow would rise 400 percent by 2002.
With inflation apparently under control, gold may seem an odd
place to stash your money. But the key word is "apparently." At
these prices, high-quality gold stocks could be safe havens:
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., Placer Dome Inc.,
Newmont Mining Corp. and Homestake Mining Co. } end quote

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:49)
PJ: nothing is ever "personal" in 'love', war, &/or investments. If you would find a long-term comparison chart, of say, HM ( -Homestake Mining ) , compared to gold prices, you will see that the "lead-scout" phenomenon, is on track, and on schedule. ... And, if you will chart an 'obv', or "on-balance-volume" value/plot/line, for the stock, HM, as well; you
will see, even more vividly, how the 'strong, quiet, big-money', accumulates its positions, silently, patiently; and long before "the turn"....the turn ( up ) gold. And this is: 'NOW' .

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:49)
Hong Kong gold story;

Thailand bailout story;

Good night all....................................

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:49)
Puetz and your 21:37 post-On the other hand, maybe he
decided it's not worth the time and effort to continue
to post logical, rational, and well thought-out arguments
to those, like yourself who only respond with "The stock
market is going to crash tomorrow and gold is going to
skyrocket." ( After several years this sounds like a broken
record ) . He hardly deserved the crap thrown at him.
He was not a hepcat.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 22:56)
cherokee@22:41:: thanks for this scenario & comparison of China/US, & Brit/Argentine. Now, tell me, do you have a monopoly on truth ?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:01)
@ I need help
Any computer experts "out there"...Every few minutes when I click to access something my computer just freezes up and won't respond to any clicks...on anything!...and have to shut down the computer and start all over again...Could this be my ISP or does it sound like my computer???
Am ready to take my hammer ta the damn thing!..

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:02)
DONALD: I don't think you are too far off the mark re: your Gold Ratio extrapolations. It certainly helps provide a much longer view picture.
It is very cyclical. I think we will definitely get a big buy from the "buy on a dip crowd" next time round. Keep up the good work!!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:04)
It does seem that the mining issues are under accumulation. We've seen relatively low volume with modest price increases. People just are not willing to sell their mining issues at this stage of the game. I think if we were to see Gold retest $317 then we might see some more price pressure. But to tell you the truth I think this pendulum has reversed course. The action on Friday really has me taking notice. Perhaps it is time for the dog to have his day. P.S. Ted, please go sea kayaking around 10 a.m. tommorrow. That always makes gold go up.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:04)
Lurker: First, are you afraid to identify yourself? At least give an e-mail address. Second, regarding the "crap" thrown at RJ, it would be appropriate if you could give an example of what you are talking. I will admit I hit hard at RJ at times, but I was always hitting hard with logical agruements. RJ posted some of the most ferociously bearish arguments here at Kitco. What I threw at RJ were equally hard arguments that countered his. Only time will tell which will be right. I still expect a violent deflationary depression -- a depression in which gold will soar because our present monetary system is collapsing.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:06)
TED -- Do you have a Virus detection program running? You may have picked up an unwanted guest from the 'Net. That's only one possibility.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:08)
TED -- What are you running for an operating system? DOS/Windows 3.1 or Windows 95?

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:08)
Steve:: The question is will the people want more or less govt help when they feel less secure. Especially after we have had such an increasing divergence in wealth. The ans is clear a new progressive era will begin with the demise of the Wall St. inspired financial ponzi scheme.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:10)
TED -- Got to hit the hay, will catch you in the A.M.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:11)
Windows 95....The shootin stars in the netscape bow just freeze..Iez stupid about these things...

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:13)
Don't have a virus detection program least that I'm aware of

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:13)
It sounds like you need more hard drive, when you load software on your hard drive you need to leave at least 20% of the hard drive free of material or she'll freeze up!! Might need a 1.2 giga byte hard drive or plus, just a thought!!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:16)
Leaner: Haven't been loading any new software....

Who Cares?
(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:22)
Ted & Win95

Ted - simply don't use the dial-up or Netscape. Log off,
shut them down. Bring up something else, like Word or
Solitaire. Run them. Does the system still freeze?

Yes? You have a local problem on your machine.

No? It's probably Kitco. : ) There's nothing you can do. ; )

For myself, I have occasionally had a bad website/Netscape
crash Win95.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:24)
If you can get into your root directory it will show you how many bytes of information your running, in some cases you might need to do some house cleaning before you see some positive response from your computer. Get a pro if your not sure how to go about the house cleaning. She'll come around!!

Strad Master
(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:25)
A conundrum!
D.A. ( The one who is into White Metals ) : Re your 22:30 post. Would you hold the same to be true for such things as collectibles? I'm grappling with the thought of selling my Strad ( We're talking BIG money here! ) . I've been collecting various opinions via e-mail from a variety of sources and now am throwing it out to you and the group for input. If inflation hits, I should hang on to it as it will continue to increase in value. ( There are only 600 of so in the world and not all of them are in the fabulous shape mine is in. ) On the other hand if deflation hits, selling it now would facilitate paying off our mortgage and having lots to spare to invest or just hang on to - generating income. Later, after prices go down I might have enough from investing to buy back a comparable instrument at lower prices. Of course, if the Y2K problem hits with a vengance all that money will evaporate ( not good ) . Added to this mix is the fact that even in the Depression a good Strad lost NONE of its value. A great one was sold in 1929 ( before the crash ) for $21,000 and the same was sold again in 1933 for $21,500. Of course, the demand for Strads diminished but still they were saleable. I have a fine new instrument as a spare and played all my recent concerts in Europe with it so I can get by, but in some ways might prefer the cash to invest and make life easier - especially with a third little Strad on the way and after lots of egregious losses in the metals market thanks to a bunch of ill-timed moves. Anyway, you can sense my ambivalence, so I'm collecting all the info I can so as to become thoroughly confused and paralysed. I think though, that this sort of real-time conumdrum might make for interesting speculation while we await tomorrow's open. Thanks for the input. Thanks, too to GEORGE S. COLE for the response to my Rydex question. Most appreciated and very informative!

PS: Also to the other D.A. I second D.A's motion that you amend your handle. The first D.A. has been around giving brilliantly considered market thoughts for quite awhile now. I always read everything he posts. While yours may be equally brillint, it is extremely confusing to not know who's posting. Many thanks for your understanding.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:27)
Hi Leaner! Thanks for trying to help...When you get me away from hammer+nails,I'm lost...root directory ( huh ) I better get an expert....

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:28)
Puetz @ 23:04
Puetz, why is it considered a state of being afraid ( fear ) . When a
person posts, and has not provided an e-mail address ???
I consider it not to be an issue. I can not understand, why, you would
suggest that a person is afraid ( in fear ) , because an e-mail address did
not accompany a persons posted point of view, interesting.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:35)
DONALD & MIKE SHELLER: This rarified air is starting to choke me, but before I drop off, lets have a look around. We are starting to get a broader scale series of currency devaluations. Isn't it interesting that it is not getting much coverage in the popular daily press! Still viewed as highly localised problem. When Mexico had it's tequila problems, when you look at the Gold/Dow ration chart, the chart just experienced a little blip. Then it kept going up after 1995. Possibly it will keep doing so, after some form of correction soon. Gold will just go through the floor for a few years. Looking back, the run ups seem to last for more than twenty years, closer to thirty years in reality. The major bear markets seemed to last only 5 to 12 years. Maybe we have more long term bull market to run. ( allowing for a serious correction soon not resulting in a long term bear market ) . There is still too much "smart money" cash around. This scenario reminds me of the "Contrarian Investor" column that we used to read a few months ago, via Gold Eagle etc. I also fail to see why the Big guys want a serious finanical collapse to occur when they want the EMU to be successful. Only volatility. This current collapse of currency just seems to be leading towards a new APEC financial regime to be put into effect. It is all very calculated really.
Another observation. The peaks/troughs since 1979 seem a lot closer together on the Gold/Dow ratio chart. From 1930 to 1966, the peaks & troughs seemed to "roll" a lot more ( wider spread ) . I suppose this is due to information speed & extensive use of derivatives/hedging etc.
At the moment, the PE's are obscene, but there are still a few companies around with some potential. But it is not wide spread.
RE: Harry Schultz guru. A year ago he recommended an equal spread of stocks & bonds, apart from the typical gold/currency holding. Both bonds & stocks have done well. So he earns his money for this year. Am watching closely now though!!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:35)
WW: Bear in mind that the present distortions and maldistributions of personal income have come about with the full conivance of the very same govt., you hold in such reverence. Given the geoeconomic changes that have occured over the past 20 years, the present plight of the working man and woman in the western world, would probably have developed with or without govt intervention.

There is no excuse for the wholesale skewing of income distribution that has taken place but, please keep in mind, that it is the moneyed interests that have been influencing govt policy with the only vote that really matters. Money.

As long as govts continue to have influence to sell, they will do it and no power on earth will prevent it. As the Chinese, rightly understood, it goes to the highest bidder. Without regard to party or superficial public persona. Your nifty half dozen, or so, favorites are included.

Some bright sunshiny day, not in our lifetime, people will discover that the only solution will be to severely limit the powers of govt. .... and maintain such status with the constitutional equivalent of holding a gun to their collective heads. Short of that, all reforms are doomed to failure. Pick your favorite pony and shout your fool head, if you must, but in the end, the race was determined before the gates opened. Money talks. All the rest walks. .... IMO.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:35)
one last time
Cherokee: The British won. They lost a ship to a missle. They did not have a single Nimitz class carrier, nor did they have even one SM-2 AW missle. The Brits asked us to help them with our more advanced technology and we politely refused, choosing to remain neutral. The disparity between the British and the Argentines in the early '80s was much less than that which exists between the Chinese and the U.S. in 1997. Do the Chinese have anything more modern than the the old French Exocet missle? Can you name it or describe it? The U.S. regularly steams through the straits between Taiwan and the mainland to assert "Freedom of the Seas". Any missle, land based or otherwise fired at a carrier battle group, can be detected and shot down at ranges of up to 1000 miles, which is well outside the range of even a nuclear blast. This is possible because part of the carrier air patrol is a model of electronics warfare plane with both look down radar and considerable jamming equipment and a complement of anti-radar missles. Their stuff has to use radar to hit our stuff and we can see them and shoot them down before they can get within range of us. You still have not named nor described a single weapon in the Chinese arsenal. So I will continue to assume that you don't know and therefore this thread should be wound down. I wish you well, I'm going to catch some zzzz's.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:37)
@Who cares
Hi Who Cares!...It's been happening at other sites besides Kitco ....

2B ON2B?
(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:38)
Who cares?

Just a test because I'm kind o curious why this would affect 2b's handle but not mine, it must becaus of the separation of word, ie.
the space between the words so maybe there's a change that 2bornot2b
would keep his handle, except slighty modified, so this is a tst to see what will happen...

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:41)
D.A. #2
D.A. - That other D.A. was me. Sometimes my fingers run ahead of my mind. Sorry. The property is in the high-end catagory. Neighbor just built a $1M house on a piece almost identical to mine. I have a hard time believing that waterfront like this would decline in value, but if Donald and some others are right, things are going to change dramatically in the very near term.

jgkljalf - Since Vashon is nearer Seattle and a ferry comute is possible, I would assume it has long ago experienced the price appreciation that is now working it's way up Whidbey. I don't have any real information for you.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:43)
If you hire a programmer sit besides him/her and go though each and every directory and delete the ones you don't use regualarly, I got stuck on that one a while ago. One hour should do it at around $55.00/hr. I was amazed at the additional crap I was running!!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:44)
Ted and Shooting stars...and damn locking netscape...and other stuff
I had the same problem with my work computer. I re-installed netscape and that did not fix it. I then saved all my files ( zipped ) and reloaded Win95. That worked...I do not know what caused it and it was a major time waste's the price we have to pay if we want to read the looney posts of people in favor of the teamsters...I'm talkin' LOONEY! Good luck Ted...

And while I'm here...

This is NOT the end of the bull run for the equities and this is NOT the start of the bull run for Gold. Of this I am 99.9% SURE.

Just one more thing...before I get trounced...

Aubrey 8:51 - If you are new to futures, do your homework before you start throwing money at out-of-money Gold CALLS with expiry Nov14.
Try slightly out of the money JOF8 calls...That's Golden! ( of this I am NOT sure at other your own will thank yourself later ) .

Mike S. - How did you get $12,000 from $10,000 ( the Shek thing ) . I want to know your accountant. He issa goood boy!

Shek - Go to the track tomorrow and put all $10,000 on 'Platinum Run' in the sixth race 'to win'...

NOW I'll be going...AWAY...


trading futures is a risky business and you could lose ALL your your homework!!!

Who Cares
(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:44)
Ted, Ted, Ted

No, no, Ted, I was just funning about Kitco, because it was
running so slow yesterday. The key thing to determine is if
it is related to the dial-up or not.

Use the computer with NO DIAL-UP, no modem use at all. If
your problem continues, you have a serious problem. Sorry,
but I haven't done phone support for Microsoft, but I would
say that it's likely to be some kind of software conflict.

What version of Win95 is it? Go to "My Computer", right-click
on the icon, choose "properties". I believe that 4.00.950a is
stable. If you have a previous version, perhaps you can update
it. My best guess. My next best guess would be bad memory.

Did you recently have thunderstorms? I can't remember now.

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:47)
Did I mention...
Trading futures carries risk so be careful and...


EB :-%$ )

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:47)
Cannabis price similar to Gold! Latest findings!
Cannabis price follows when gold goes to pot By Stephen Wyatt
We will have to start a Dope Chatline, linked off Kitco. Hepcat can
run it if he likes!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:48)
Ted: No, an expert is just likely to confuse matters. What's required in these situations is a measured dose of percussive adjustment. It's accomplished with a calibrated two by four - ( you may remember them from when you earned an honest living ) - applied in careful sequence alongside the computer case. It's really an old mule skinner's trick. If you want to give a mule a command, it's first necessary to smack him in the forehead to get his attention. ...... Technology may change but some things are universal and timeless. ... Send us a landline fax to let us know how it turns out. ...... :- ) ) ) )

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:52)
Aust. Govt considering to borrow more money that we don't have, to flush it down the toilet in Thailand
PS. "Treasury officials RUSHED there"!!!

(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:55)
Marijuana, Lumber, Wine Grapes...the leading cash crops in California... and Gold has to shoot like a rocket to equal a good Oz. of quality California least that's what I read in the papers ;- )

AwAy... to water my garden...


just kidding folks...

Who Cares
(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:55)
Currency Devaluation Theory

I have a theory about currency devaluations. I haven't seen it
anywhere else. Imagine a group of currencies that all start
from a common point. They begin devaluation.

As long as they all devalue at the EXACT same rate, there is
no currency fluctuation, right?

Now, imagine those same currencies, but instead of devaluing
along a common exponential curve, they START OFF at slightly
different functions. Now, for awhile, the devaluations may
appear linear, like between the dollar and yen. And there will
be stepped corrections, right?

But, as we progress further along the curves, the offsets
between them become larger and larger. Ergo - greater and
greater currency adjustments, as the various governments around
the world try to stay in sync.

What would cause slightly different equations of devaluation?

Well, I believe devaluation is strongly linked to accumulation
of debt. But, different cultures may have different tolerances
for levels of debt, willingness to incur debt; the relative
strength or weakness of a government may encourage it to devalue
at a stronger or lower rate.

Anyway, given enough information, it *should* be possible for
these governments to keep their currencies in sync. However,
in reality, as rates of devaluation accelerate, it should become
harder and harder to prevent "panics", "Soros manipulations", etc.

Steve - Perth
(Sun Aug 10 1997 23:56)
DONALD: US stock market to go on without the Bond Market.