Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Mon Aug 11 1997 00:09)
Hi bout a damn six by six!...Remember our conversation about our Stihl's runnin fer ever...well, mines on the disable list and even after a 200$ bill,they don't know if it'll work fer long...I'm gettin that ominous feelin that "Murphy's Law" is takin over...I'm not known for my patience and it is getting tempting to smash the hell out of this damn machine....If I vanish from cyber-space you'll know why.....I'm tired and FRUSTRATED...better go to sleep and dream of Asian......see ya dude!

want to
(Mon Aug 11 1997 00:13)
What country does Rhodium mostly come from, Russia or South Africa?

(Mon Aug 11 1997 00:17)
Okay, could we cut to the chase, and bottom line guess as to what will happen with Gold next week? My 2 cents says 340 by Friday.

Anyone else?

(Mon Aug 11 1997 00:24)
Ted: When my computer slows to a stop, I clear my cache and it always helps. If your running Netscape Gold click on "Options" at the top on the menu bar. Select "Network Preference". Go to "Cache" and click on "Clear memory cache now".

If you are running an earlier version I think you have to use Windows Explorer and go to the Netscape files to find the "cache" file.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 00:35)
WW: Wanting and getting are two different things. I'm sure most people and corporations that are now receiving subsidies and hand-outs will continue to want them. But the big question is: Who will be able to pay for it? The wealth you talk about are paper profits on stocks and bonds, and unrealized gains on real estate. The coming crash will wipe out those gains -- making most of the wealthy poor. Only holders of gold and silver will survive financially. I expect a movement back toward capitalism because of an increasing inability to find taxpayers to support social programs. Many of the wealthy have already left the US for the tax-safe havens around the globe. Efforts to increase socialism will only accelerate this capital flight. In both Chile and Russia a great number of people wanted the former social safety-nets maintained. The hard reality of the necessity of rewarding capital formation forced those countries to begin moving back toward capitalism -- in spite of the popular demand for maintaining the safety-nets.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 00:37)
Ted: It sounds like you are running out of hard drive space.
Netscape ( and other Browsers ) cache everything to your hard drive This includes images on every page that you ever visited during your browsing. ( If somebody wants to see where you've been, they can go into the cache directory and double-click on every item. Scary, huh? ) Everyone should periodically clear their hard drive caches unless you only go to the same sites over and over. ( The cache saves your computer from downloading complete pages of sites you often visit. Typically, it will only download things that have changed ) To clear your cache in Netscape, go to Options, Network Preferences and click on "Clear disk cache now". Also, search your hard drive for *.tmp files then delete them. Windows has a habit of creating "temp" files and then not deleting them for one reason or another. Finally, run Scandisk. You need to run it periodically anyway to ensure your hard drive ( s ) remain trouble free. I work on PCs all the time and have freed up hundreds of megabytes on some PCs by doing those three things. First, to see how much free space you have on your hard drive, double click on the My Computer icon, then RIGHT click on the C drive and then select Properties. You will see how much free space you have. Plus you get to Scandisk by selecting "Error-checking status" here by looking under the Tools tab.
If the above efforts do not help, you may not have enough RAM or maybe a RAM chip went bad. Enough computerese, this is a precious metals discussion site and you can find tons of help for computer problems elsewhere on the web. If you'd like more of my help though, you are welcome to email me.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 00:47)
6pk: It wasn't that the lurker didn't give an e-mail address, it was that he or she didn't give either a name, handle, or e-mail address. What I was trying to say is that he/she should have at least given an e-mail address if the name and handle was left off. I'd say most people like to have a vague idea of who it is they're having a discussion with. That's just normal manners.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 00:53)
Gold continues to edge higher -- now up 80 cents. Silver up 2.5. The S&P futures are starting to fall back down again -- now down 420. Tomorrow morning should be interesting.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 01:29)
Puetz @ 00:47
Explanation is very reasonable. The interest was put forth, because I
do not use an e-mail address, I did not think it was necessary, not
out of fear, on my part.
Thanks,Take care !

Congressman Bob
(Mon Aug 11 1997 01:31)
@Reply to Donald
My favorite Congressman is Ron Paul. Why you may ask? Well, for one thing I don't have to share the bribes with him. Being honest, he refuses to go along with the program. He never accepts any Campaign contributions from the "businessmen" of the world. This leaves more for my associates and me. After all, there is only a finite amount of money available to us Congressmen. Remember, contributions are spread out all across the hill.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 01:33)

Nekkei down 2.5%. Anyone know how the "tigers" are doing?

(Mon Aug 11 1997 02:37)

Tokyo down 780 or 4%!

John Disney
(Mon Aug 11 1997 02:39)
for I Want

In 1996 RSA produced 355,000 oz rhodium, Russian 90,000, USA 16,000.
About 85 % is used in Auto catalyst. Some is used in glass.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 03:32)
EARL: Your Aug.10 23:35 post says it all. Normally I am a "what the market says" person but when outfits like Disney, for example, pay Eisner what they do something is wrong somewhere. I think Boards of Directors appointed often, in effect, by CEO's are the problem. He is setting his own salary because the Board is "beholden" to him. The shareholders get the shaft.

Who Cares
(Mon Aug 11 1997 03:43)
CEO Redux

CEOs. Board of Directors. Function of Information.

Shareholders need an independent data source. A solvable
problem. : ) After the Crash. : )

Nikkie down 780?! OUTSTANDING!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 04:11)
@ the zoo
Japan -3.98%,China -1.82%,Hong Kong -1.18%,Indonesia -2.07%,Malaysia -3.51%,Singapore -2.54%. Thats poor.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 04:19)
in London
FTSE down 49.3 @ 8:53am

(Mon Aug 11 1997 04:39)
more news
Report on fall in Tokyo

(Mon Aug 11 1997 04:47)
Regulators and Greenspan at odds

SEC and various accounting groups want derivatives marked to market. Greenspan doesn't like the idea.
The $20,000 billion that US companies play with could be serious negative stuff.
If doesn't get you directly there, it's free to register.
Other good articals you might like, when you browse around.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 04:59)
Anyone have Deaners' site number, seemed to have cancelled it by mistake.

Don't be suprised if Golds correct near term.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 05:04)
Its free

SUBJECT: My last post. If the connection to the Financial Times left you hanging, which I suspect it did. You will have to register, but its free. Best way in is ,then register. Paper covers a broad range.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 05:11)
Ted@Root Directory
Ted, nothing complicated about a Root Directory. First dig the hole. Then use the handle of the shovel to poke a hole through the centre of the hole you have just dug. Hey presto!!! There you have it, A Root Directory. Now plant the seed in the hole and the root knows exactly which direction to follow. Simple....aint it. Happy gardening!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 05:12)
Its free

SUBJECT: My last post. If the connection to the Financial Times left you hanging, which I suspect it did. You will have to register, but its free. Best way in is ,then register. Paper covers a broad range.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 05:25)
Tokyo stocks post largest fall of the year.
Dollar plunges to 115 Yen

(Mon Aug 11 1997 05:30)
Finance: US regulator fights to keep
derivatives scheme


By Jim Kelly

The US financial reporting regulator will this week resist pressure from Mr
Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, to ditch
controversial proposals requiring companies to mark derivatives to market.

Under this scheme, companies would have to introduce fair value reporting
for derivatives - reporting their current value in company accounts, rather
than the value for which they were originally bought - from January 1

Officially the Financial Accounting Standards Board is "studying" a letter
from Mr Greenspan calling for a re-think on the proposals.

But officials at Norwalk, the board's headquarters, insist there is no need
for a further consultation document. It plans to write to the Fed today on
the issue.

New chairman Mr Ed Jenkins and the rest of the board have been heavily
criticised since publishing the proposals last month. The board wants
derivatives marked to market - and any losses or gains taken through

However, special treatment is allowed for hedging - with gains or losses
deferred until the hedge is completed. But crucially the board, while
allowing hedging, will lay down strict rules on which transactions qualify.

Earlier this month more than 20 US business leaders - mostly leading
bankers - wrote to Jenkins expressing worries about the potential impact
of the new rules. They said Norwalk was rushing into the project and that
the upheaval would undermine companies' ability to manage risk while
preparing for the year 2000 problem and the introduction of a European
single currency.

Greenspan had similar complaints, saying the proposals would not improve
accounting for derivatives and "would constrain prudent risk management".
He suggested expanding disclosure of derivatives - at fair value - in
supplemental financial statements. He envisaged "competition" between the
two sets of statements with the market using the most useful.

But the board's supporters think the banks are leading a campaign to delay
the introduction of the mark to market approach. Supporters further
suggest that some companies use derivatives to manage earnings by
retrospectively recognising transactions as part of a hedge to defer losses
and gains.

There are also questions over why the proposals should have such a
dramatic effect when US companies are already required to disclose
derivatives at fair value - or mark them to market. "What are the analysts
doing with this information now ?" asked one supporter of the board.

The board is not alone in its attempts to push ahead with the standard. In
May, Mr Michael Sutton, chief accountant at the Securities and Exchange
Commission, the US stock market regulator, praised the proposals and the
fact that the board had tinkered with them to meet complaints from
companies about hedge accounting. "It seems to me that the board has
worked hard to try to address the legitimate concerns of its constituents
without undermining the integrity of the project," he said.

He acknowledged that there would be greater volatility in earnings when
companies used derivatives which did not qualify as hedges under the new

"Reporting that volatility, however, is not the same as reporting artificial
volatility. Rather it is capturing, in the financial statements, real economic
events that often are not reported today."

The SEC believes the board's proposals are necessary - especially as it
estimates that at the end of 1995 the notional amount of derivatives
outstanding in the US was more than $20,000bn ( 12,270bn ) .

In the past the board has had to revise some of its standards - but only
after Congress or the SEC has stepped in. With the SEC behind it,
Norwalk looks like it is preparing to ride out the storm. If it can get the
standard through, the new international code for accounting on the world's
leading markets - due to be endorsed next year - is likely to take up the
US approach. If it has to publish the standard again as a consultative draft,
a solution could be years away. "What Greenspan is saying is an immense
step backwards," said David Cairns, editor of the World Accounting

(Mon Aug 11 1997 05:37)
Ted @Root Directory
Ted, how stupid of me. I forgot to mention.....always check for gold at the bottom of the hole...before planting the seed.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 05:38)
Brazil hints at devaluation of currency.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 05:45)
Argentina doubts Brazil will devaluate.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 05:47)
Week could be bumpy ride for markets.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 06:15)
Mornin Donald and ALL Kitcoites! Let's see,where are we??...Friday on Wall Street spread to Japan and the Nikkei 225 was down 780 ( almost 4% ) ;Hang Seng down 178 ( 1.1% ) ....Europe is also down but only modestly...
London down 20;German Dax down 33....In London long bond is up ten ticks
....The Dollar ( U.S. ) is mostly up.....S+P Globex futures are up .30....
DBC Dec. Gold is down a dime....Off ta read "the Urinal"

Mike Sheller
(Mon Aug 11 1997 06:38)
The magic portfolio
EB: The portfolio is up $2000 already? MUSINGS OVER COFFEE: Another Philosophical Kitco weekend has passed. Some deep thoughts for a Monday morning linger. Several kind posters mentioned the need for folks to get with the program they call "reality." Ahhh, how elusive a concept. Like "truth," this idea, this ideal, often refuses to rapidly and officially identify itself. Even many decades after a "fact." I would suggest that those who invoke this terrible burden upon we terminally opinionated human beings check their own "realities," and be a bit less critical of that of others. STRADMASTER: You bring to the Kitco table a truly stupendous puzzle. Your Stradivarius, emanator of Golden tones that it is, is certainly an investment vehicle fit for discussion at Kitco ( lest we be accused of merely fiddling around ) . To sell this magnificent creation now, perhaps at the "top" of its market ( and form ) or hold on? This will be the angst-provoking spear in the side of all bullion owners when gold roars to $2,400, or perhaps even $6000 per ounce. Sell? Now?? But the world is going to Hell! Look at my gold! How can I sell it now. It is my warmth, my succor, my support, in this the darkest hour, the brink of civilization's fall. ( Probably the best time ever to buy US Treasuries for another decade's pop ) . Do we have the fortitude to step in and accumulate bullion and shares while the whole world laughs at our foolishness ( isn't it OBVIOUS that MUTUAL FUNDS are the things to buy? ) Yes, some of us do. But the bigger question is will we have the good sense to sell that gold somewhere down the road, when all looks like it's going down the tubes? AND FINALLY: This talk about the "BIG BOYS" want this, and the BIG BOYS want that, and how they fling us around and CONTROL EVERYTHING, and now they WANT a depression, or this or that. Re-think what a market is. And, please...a little less WANTING, and GLEE, over the possibility that there could be indeed a deflation, or inflation, of terrible proportions. Human catastrophe has a way of biting at EVERYONE's heels. Do not be too sure that you will escape the destiny you see laying wait for those around you whom you might accuse of not being so in touch with "reality" as you. Reality is a hard mistress. I think it may be time for some of us to go out there and repeat basic training. This is serious business, this social "readjustment." There may be bargains when the blood runs in the streets. But you can't hardly take advantage when you are lying in the gutter bleeding to death. Or am I too getting "out of touch with reality?" Will it all unfold on my computer screen, and I won't even have to go outside? Really...

(Mon Aug 11 1997 06:40)
KJB ( 00:24 ) Dan ( 00:37 ) Thanks for the help!...I clicked "clear memory cache now"...and then clicked OK...Am feelin like Bill Gates now...See if this works and if not I'll HAMMER the damn thing....AU99.9 ( 5:11 ect ) thank ( ? ) you too dude...Globex Futures up .85

Mike Sheller
(Mon Aug 11 1997 06:40)
looks like we're in for stormy weather
Mornin' Ted.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 06:56)
Nothing has changed in the fundamentals of the stock market and gold. Face it... you try to pick the bottom, and many of you have lost money. What's the rush here?
Gold is no better investment today than yesterday. Plenty of fake outs for gold, while DOW corrects here and there.
Good luck all.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 07:04)
The damn thing is still freezin up....Long live the Luddites!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 07:04)
@Life's Pleasures
Stradmaster- your question re the "Strad" gives us all food for thought.

Here's my take-- With the many riches life has to offer beauty- such as a truly enchanting sound that a rare instrument makes-- is priceless!!!
To sell something so rare and outstanding would be a mistake that could not easily be rectified. Think on the subject another number of years, and during that time enjoy it and its sounds.

You are a lucky man. May your luck continue.

George Cole
(Mon Aug 11 1997 07:36)
LURKER; DBC December gold is at
You can reset it to get any other stock, commodity,or index.

Dollar up modetly this morning; European markets down a bit.. Japan off 4%. DBC gold off a dime. Joberg gold index flat.

Looks like the will attemt a rally this morning. I still think the tide is turning in a fundamental way, but it will be slow going for awhile. Stocks and the dollar not going strait down and gold not going strait up. But gold and gold shares will be considerably higher by October while stocks and the dollar will be lower.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 07:39)
Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL, Part - V (11 August 1997)

JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK & HARD SPOT: First, FRB Report warned in Sept 1995
when DOW was 4700, then Greenspan alerted all with DOW about 6000! Now
the DOW tops 8300!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 07:39)
MIKE SHELLER: As I mentioned in a post more than a week ago I know I can not escape what is coming. Many of my financial affairs are beyond my control. I can only hope that the pension manager steps aside from the truck. My kids are in the same financial boat I was in when I was their age. At least I have prepared them mentally for what is about to happen. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 07:44)
TED: You were up late last night, now with PC problems, ugh. I have my old PC, a 486/40 Dell ready all the time as backup. It's slow but better than nothing. We are 71F but the humidity is up to 80% already. Nice and sunny.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 07:44)
THE RED BARON (Part - 3)
Gold Loans by numerous CBs is ludicrous & INSANE. Hapless Gold Mining
companies sold forward years of production. A substantial price rise
will show the errors of BOTH their ways:

(Mon Aug 11 1997 07:56)
South Korean gold transhipments.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 07:59)
Comments on HK gold overnight trading.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 08:02)
Comments on Tokyo metals overnight trading

George Cole
(Mon Aug 11 1997 08:03)
Fed Critics want lower rates


Monday, August 11, 1997

Fed Putting a Crimp on Economy, Critics Say
Business: Dissatisfied with current outlook, 'growth optimists' push for lower
interest rates to spur expansion.
By ART PINE, Times Staff Writer


ASHINGTON--Unemployment is at a 23-year low. Inflation is
nowhere to be seen. To most analysts, the nation's economy is
doing so well that it is difficult to imagine how to improve it.
"It doesn't get any better than this," says Robert G. Dederick, an
economist at Northern Trust Co.
Now comes a group of economists who contend that not only can
it get better than this but that it should--and that it would if only Alan
Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, would loosen up
and let interest rates come down.
These "growth optimists," as they are known, say the Fed's
insistence that the economy cannot grow faster than 2.3% a year
without reviving inflation is dead wrong--and is costing output and
"We think it can grow faster without exacerbating inflation,"
said Jeff Faux, executive director of the liberal Economic Policy
Institute in Washington and a key proponent of the growth optimists'
point of view.
"How much faster is anybody's guess," Faux said, "but we
probably can sustain a growth of 3% to 3 1/2%. The problem is, we
have a Fed that's more concerned about making investors comfortable
than about growth."
If the growth optimists are right, the difference is a lot greater
than it sounds.
Barry Bluestone, a University of Massachusetts economist,
estimates that boosting the growth rate even to 3% would add an
average of $300 billion a year to the nation's output over the next 10
years--raising income, jobs and tax revenues to boot.
Setting a 2.3% speed limit, as the Fed and the White House
effectively have done, is unnecessarily depriving the nation of all that,
Bluestone writes in the American Prospect, a liberal journal.
"The bridge to the 21st century apparently is being built without
a high-speed lane," Bluestone said.
Liberals are not alone in arguing that the economy can grow
more rapidly without reigniting the fires of inflation.
During the 1996 presidential campaign, GOP nominee Bob Dole
and his running mate, Jack Kemp, contended that the economy could
safely grow faster. Kemp asserted that even 5% might be manageable.
However, the two sides have far different prescriptions for how
to spur greater growth. The liberals want to cut interest rates, while
conservatives would slash taxes and government regulations.
The view at the Fed is that allowing the economy to grow much
faster would risk reviving inflation, which they say is by far the
biggest threat to long-term prosperity.
In this view, labor is already scarce in many areas of the
country, setting the stage for escalating wages. Higher wages eventually
will spawn big price hikes. The wage-price spiral will begin.
Faux and other growth optimists call that line of reasoning out of
date and badly flawed. To begin with, they argue, the labor force has
excess capacity--in the form of a large, untapped pool of workers who
can fill new jobs without straining the system.
They say young men who once dropped out of the labor force
are beginning to come back as job opportunities improve. The influx
of women into the job market is accelerating again. And older workers
are retiring later.
Second, they argue, the advent of new technology, made possible
largely by the introduction of the microprocessor, has laid the base for
a massive improvement in worker efficiency, a key to faster growth.
Although the change has not shown up in government statistics
yet, Bluestone contends that it will as soon as workers and managers
learn to use computers effectively.
"There is good reason to believe that we are on the verge of a
productivity renaissance," he wrote, along with Bennett Harrison of the
New School of Social Research, in the American Prospect article.
The prospect of a faster-growing labor force and a more rapid
increase in productivity ought to make the economy better able to
tolerate faster growth without reviving inflationary pressures, the
growth optimists say.
Mainstream economic analysts remain skeptical.
Barry P. Bosworth, a Brookings Institution economist, contends
that the growth optimists have been proved wrong before. He recalls
that critics complained for years that government statistical techniques
understated gains in worker productivity. But when measurement
techniques were revised, productivity did not improve.
Moreover, Bosworth and other economists argue that even if
labor markets turn out not to be as tight as they seem, it would only
take a year before the "excess" workers were absorbed and the
shortages began.
As a result, he contends, any faster growth would have "a
one-shot effect. You'd get to a lower unemployment rate for a while,
but that would be it, and then you'd be back to what everyone is talking
about now."
Besides the Fed and most mainstream economists, the Clinton
administration and the Congressional Budget Office are backing the
view that the optimum economic growth rate is between 2% and 2.5%.

What is ironic to some analysts is that for all of Greenspan's
warnings about overheating, there is little real evidence that the Fed
has been excessive recently in restraining the economy's growth.
Although the Fed did tighten credit in March by boosting the
interest rate that banks charge on overnight loans to other banks, the
increase was only a quarter of a percentage point, hardly enough to
impede growth very seriously.
If anything, monetary analysts point out, the Fed's rate hike
actually reduced interest rates on long-term investments by dampening
fears that inflation might be about to rebound.
The Fed has already watched without taking action as the
unemployment rate slipped far below the level economists have said
would reignite inflation. That level, 6% in the late 1970s and 5.5% in
the 1990s, is 5.3% today--still far above the 4.8% jobless rate
registered in July.
And whatever Greenspan's misgivings in March, he has spent
much of the summer raising the possibility that the economy has
undergone enough basic changes that faster growth may be possible.
At the last two meetings of the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open
Market Committee, Greenspan has been the dove, beating back
attempts by more hawkish members to raise interest rates again.
Rep. Barney Frank ( D-Mass. ) , a proponent of faster growth who
has criticized Greenspan recently, muses wryly that the chairman has
moved considerably toward the liberals' view. He said that if he had
known earlier what he now knows about Greenspan's position, he
might not have been so hard on the Fed chairman.
That leaves the dispute largely a matter of timing. The growth
optimists want to let the economy grow faster until signs of renewed
inflation begin to show up, while mainstream economists want to keep
growth slow until there is evidence that productivity has improved.
To the mainstream economists, the costs of beating back inflation
once it begins are far greater than the growth sacrificed upfront to
prevent inflation from resuming.
When the Greenspan-led Fed miscalculated in favor of faster
growth in 1988, Bosworth said, it found itself unable to cope easily
with mounting wage demands and an oil price hike. As a result, the
Fed tightened monetary policy sharply, triggering a recession in 1990
that cost many more jobs than slowing the growth rate earlier would
For that reason, Bosworth argues, it is important for the Fed to
err on the side of caution. The odds are that the central bank will keep
watching the unemployment rate edge down without raising interest
rates again.
But it is unlikely to do so at a pace that satisfies the growth
optimists; what they want is not even on the Fed's agenda. Faux said: "I
think the Fed ought to be lowering interest rates."

Search the archives of the Los Angeles Times for similar stories. You will not be
charged to look for stories, only to retrieve one.

Copyright Los Angeles Times


Mike Sheller
(Mon Aug 11 1997 08:06)
REAL reality check...thanks Reify!
REIFY, STRAD: Strad Master - Reify is right. This is something beyond a commodity, or even "real" money. It's something that many a passionate musician has been called to own, but destiny has chosen YOU. Even from a purely financial standpoint ( and have we artists sunk that low? No! ) it is a priceless longterm investment that can only rise in relative value, and perhaps even make your children, or grandchildren rich. Especially if none of them has any musical talent. Keep the damn fiddle. DONALD: Donald, I didn't have you in mind when I said what I said about prophets of doom. Somehow you have a way of outlining the worst, while projecting a subtle compassion for all of us. I once made the mistake of allowing my "vision" of an apocalypse to perhas harden my heart to the vast implications it would bring. I paid a price. Walking that humble and helpful line you have managed to tread is not easily done. I guess it's a matter of one's own reality, is it not?

Mike Sheller
(Mon Aug 11 1997 08:26)
Monday Morning at the charts
Notice how Sept silver failed on Friday to take out the short term downtrend line connecting the last hi made in June, with the Monday Aug 4 hi. Above 4.50 is a breakout, short term, in which case next minor resistance might be at 4.62. A break into new lows keeps the 4.09 - 4.15 floor alive. Have a great day all!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 08:34)
A hot one for Cape Breton as it's already 74 degrees...and sunny...Stores don't open till 10 AM here and will then call my computer store...Computer freeze-up is gettin worse!...Comex:Gold up .30; Silver up 1.5 cents; PL @ unch; and PA down .75 ....S+P futures up 2.10....Even though the "puter" and the chainsaw are broken,it's a beautiful day and I'll be jumpin into the kayak to escape "Murphy's Law"....S+P now up 2.40!..Looks like the "dipsters" are baaaack.....

(Mon Aug 11 1997 08:36)
@Mike Sheller
Mornin Mike!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 08:40)
Hot off the press....Gold up .70; Silver up 2 cents; and PL down 1.20...
S+P futures up 2.85....

(Mon Aug 11 1997 08:50)
Deaner prudent trader site, no longer free, but still calling good shots:

(Mon Aug 11 1997 08:54)
On advice of "puter" store am bringing it in fer repairs...I'll be HERE in spirit....

(Mon Aug 11 1997 09:01)
oldman, having read your posts over the weekend I now understand why everyone missed you. Please keep posting for us newbies who did not know what we were missing. Kitco is a benign addiction, with no side effects for anyone with a grain of salt, and it is free, like the best things in life.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 09:49)
BART: Can you give us an estimate on the time to operation of the squelch button?

(Mon Aug 11 1997 10:09)
From last night: "RJ - Get yer butt back here! ( American ) "
If Rj is going to continue with his program he is probably shorting right about NOW. RJ?

(Mon Aug 11 1997 10:14)
BACK ON.....
Back after coin show....Lots of demand....Gold, silver and coins in general....Seems to be plenty of money chasing the available material....TED....sounds like you need to reload software since you have cleared the cache...Kinda of in and out.....

(Mon Aug 11 1997 10:27)
"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't
do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from
the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream.
----- Mark Twain
How's it go? - "Get real, Get Gold."

(Mon Aug 11 1997 10:29)
"When written in Chinese, the word "crisis" is composed of two characters.
One represents danger and the other represents opportunity."
-----------John F. Kennedy

Steve - Perth
(Mon Aug 11 1997 11:03)
Australia doubles its commitment to bail out Thailand.
When you are throwing it down the toilet, you might as well do it in style. Maybe we can take Mr Downer's super fund as security over the loan to the Thais! If they default, the Australian tax payers can have Mr Downer's super fund.

Steve - Perth
(Mon Aug 11 1997 11:11)
Australian stock sell off worst in 4 months

Steve - Perth
(Mon Aug 11 1997 11:14)
Bull run stumbles as rate fears rise in Australia

Steve - Perth
(Mon Aug 11 1997 11:27)
It is believed that the US did not give to the Thai rescue bid ( yet ) due to lack of funds. ( see last paragraph ) .
Too busy bailing out their own bond market perhaps??? Who needs a war in Korea or China when you have a currency collapse to sort out??!!

Dr. Front
(Mon Aug 11 1997 11:38)

OK TED, while you're away at the computer hospital, here's my prediction of what will/has happened. You got a virus my lad. They will re-install your operating system ( win31 or win95 ) , Sell you some virus software like MacAfee or Symantic and then say all is well. What actually happened is that the boot program got infected by a virus and when a program goes back to the bios for what to do next, the virus has moved the spot to look for the bios. I know you're not a computer nerd, so you're just as well to have taken it to the hospital. Let me know if my "forward viewing" is right will ya? I may start a business on the side! Best of luck....


(Mon Aug 11 1997 11:42)

A teamster victory may not be inflationary. If the teamsters win, the apparel companies and other shipping co.'s may under go a big drop in income and profits causing job losses at these shipper dependant companies

Who Cares
(Mon Aug 11 1997 11:45)
Free Glee!!!
But the bigger question is will we have the good sense to sell that gold somewhere down the road, when all looks like it's going down the tubes?

Yes, that's the real question. : )

And, please...a little less WANTING, and GLEE, over the possibility that there could be indeed a deflation, or inflation, of terrible proportions.

Wanting? Heck, I just want my career back, but I don't
think I have the will anymore to rebuild it. : ) Besides,
I fully expect the various governments around the world
to bail us out. : ) Look, they did in '87, right?

Then Greenspan bailed out the banks in the ensuing
contained depression of '91-94. Then, when everyone
bailed out on our bonds, somehow Greenspan convinced
the various governments to keep us propped up until

What makes you think they don't have yet another
contigency plan? : ) So the Nikkei crashes, it's
not like it's real money or anything. : )

(Mon Aug 11 1997 11:54)
I don't think RJ is paying too much attention to this forum these days.

I expect he is doing some very hard thinking and cannot allow himself to be influenced by the postings on this site.

Also, since gold started acting a little firmer, RJ has stopped offering his fatherly advice and poetry. His posts recently have had a touch of anger.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 12:00)
Who Cares: Yer right it isn't real money, after all. But they really don't want the masses to understand either. If and when they do understand, the game is over for real.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 12:08)

This one looks like a no brainer. Sell.

The fact that you are asking means that a substantial portion of your net worth exclusive of home and hearth is tied up in this instrument. As you have also indicated this fiddle is not absolutely necessary for your professional career. The question you must ask yourself from a purely rational investment point of view is this: If you did not own the fiddle but instead had the equivalent amount of money in cash, and this cash represented a large portion of your liquid net worth, would you go out and purchase this instrument? My sense is that the answer is no. Both from the standpoint of liquidity and diversification it would not be a good idea.

I do not know what the current market is for an instrument of this type but I do know that the art market in general is quite strong. We are clearly in a period of great liquidity, where much of this liquidity is concentrated in the hands of the very rich. Bringing an object of such quality and rarety into a market like this seems like a lay-up. Whether or not this is the top in the market I have no idea. I do know for certain that we are a long ways from the last bottom back in the early 90's. If you go the auction route I suspect you can cut a very favorable deal with either Christie's or Sotheby's as the lot would no doubt be a plum for either house.

Now for the emotional side. While some have counciled about the beauty and joy that an object of such quality can bring, and thus argue in favor of retention, my own sentiments are different. As you know I dabble in fine art and antiques and am fully acquainted with 'falling in love' with a something. While I have never possessed anything near the quality of your fiddle, I know well the pleasant feelings that can be had from 'feeling' the past in an exquisitely made object.

The counterpoint to this however, is the wonder and joy, completely unsurpassed by anything I have ever experienced, with simply spending time with my little toddler. An evening walk around the neighborhood, 'hunting for dogs' ( ducks in his parlance ) is as good as it gets. Given that the sale of your fiddle is likely to afford you more time and freedom to persue this kind of activity, this seems like a very good trade.

If you do decide to sell and want to go the private route rather than the auction route I can put you in touch with someone who might possibly broker the deal. He is an art and antique dealer in the NYC area and moves very high end merchandise with a specialty in Hudson River School paintings. I don't know if he knows anything about fiddles, but he is well connected and has a very wealthy clientele.

Whatever you decide, best of luck.

Best Wishes to the Mrs. and the little ones.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 12:10)
TED -- May I suggest that you McAfees' latest anti-virus software. They have free updates for 'new' virus types every few months over the net. It should keep the uninvited guests away.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 12:16)
stuff...of the frozen kind...
MikeS 6:38 - I took it...hook, line, sinker...doooh! ( bartsimpson ) . Great stuff once again, thanks. "The King of reason". BTW - 6/25/62. 7:30am. Broward Hospital, Ft. Lauderdale, FL. ( need some contact lenses...glasses? barter? )

Ted - my earlier post ( of last night ) ...I had the same problem...Backup all your important stuff to floppy, zip, tape, etc. Bookmarks and addresses are VERY important. You don't know until you have to 'rebuild' them. Then reload your O.S. like the good Dr. ( Front ) said. Problem solved...Maybe. I realize my posts probably go unread but maybe you'll catch this one...Good Luck, again... check on my Stockpile of 15,000lb barrels of FCOJ! oh my!


love a goooood glass of oj in the mornin'

(Mon Aug 11 1997 12:27)
Re: Earl, real money
Earl: You are correct it is not real money. However tens of millions of people are counting on it for a few little things like retirement, college educations, earning a living and such.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 12:34)
Strad, IMVVHO, D.A. is right unless that treasure of yours represents a small fraction of your net worth. Please keep your handle if you sell for as we players of different instruments say, you are at least as good as your best ever score. I, and all on Kitco probably, will always "see" you with that Stradivarius whether you have it or not!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 12:38)
The U.S. Defense National Stockpile Center loaning Platinum to the U.S. Mint for coins;

(Mon Aug 11 1997 12:41)
I think...metal=mettle
RJ is busy making money in the metals ( only ) market. Whether this goes up or down...I'm sure he will be on the right side sooner than later...

He has probably grown tired of reading the same stuff ( market- crash,doom,gloom ) over and over again... ( I really had to plow through some doosies on my catch-up this weekend )

I think that he also tires of saying 'gold will continue to go in the potty'...and, 'I am shorting gold now'...or, 'gold to $300 and then...$275'? 'gold is in a BEAR market now' 'more CB sales'... want more? I thought not...

a way to pass spare time...

this is not meant as mean spirited 'trash talk', this is meant as a "leave your emotions in check when 'investing'" kind of thing...

(Mon Aug 11 1997 12:41)
@Mid-Day metals story

(Mon Aug 11 1997 12:42)
With the exceptions of India,SA,Sweden,UK,+misc. there is a heck of a lot of red ink in world markets:

Who Cares
(Mon Aug 11 1997 12:44)
Interesting Article re: Inflation

Hmm. My mother just stopped by with today's paper. The Business
section has an article by Ellie Rodgers, looks like she's local
to the _Idaho Statesman_.

_High-Tech Firms Scramble For Workers_

"to sweeten the pot, companies are offering sign-on bonuses,
sabbaticals, inflated salaries, and juicy relocation
packages". {forget it, I lost $20K on the last move}

But even though jobs are plentiful overall and downright
easy pickings in high-tech, Rapp said, the majority of
Boise employers are not handing out sign-on bonuses and
high pay". {Ha. I can vouch for that.}

Well, it's certainly true that the paper has been jammed
with computer-related jobs for the last several months.

Didn't seem to help me, though. I have 60+ rejection
letters, with a total of 12 interviews and three job offers,
two of which were a joke. That's what happens when
oligopolies run things. : ) Maybe I should try again now.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 13:01)
STRAD MASTER - Would you contact me if you decide to sell your treasured instrument? I have a cousin who is a master luthier, working out of Chicago. He is one of the top 4 or 5 in the world at restoring violins, and has great connections who could undoubtedly be of assistance. He has worked on probably 50 of these priceless instruments, and is the head of a society that is dedicated to keeping them in the hands of the worlds great musicians. He performs the maintenance on these instruments for free to collectors who are willing to loan them to master violinists, so that these instruments can continue to be heard and appreciated. Thanks.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 13:03)
A leader:
Great article on the Teddy Roosevelt on page a14 of todays wsj. Can you imagine TR not alerting the commanders on Pearl Harbor that the Japanese fleet was on the way. Shot guns at five yards indeed.

Green Thumb
(Mon Aug 11 1997 13:05)
@To Steve in Perth
This correlation has been known to potheads for over a decade ( Cannabis and Gold pricing. ) Top quality smoke has always been pegged to the price of an oz. of gold. Although the price is 10x what it was in the early 70's, it's also 10x more potent.

It has also been understood that it was the largest cash crop in the U.S., especially in California ( where by the way the best is grown ) . Has this crop been included in the GDP? Don't think so.

I've read that the U.S. Imports over $50billion of the white powder from south america. Bet that doesn't get included in the trade figures also. It just gives further proof that the statistics that the usg puts out are pure fiction.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 13:50)
Platinum RJ
I am surprised in all the speculation about RJ that no one has commented on the fact that RJ has posted some charts at gold eagle showing that when the gold/platinum spread is greater 100 gold always has a strong rally. Based on Bart's spot price the spread is currently 112. If he believes that this spread holds true I suspect he is busy peeling a few "layers" on the short side. If he is, I wonder how easy it is to get the phyisical to cover....

George Cole
(Mon Aug 11 1997 13:50)
Joberg gold index up 25 today; HUI and XAU up just a tad. December gold up $1.60. The outperformance of Joberg is another sign this turn is real.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 14:00)
@George S. Cole
George S Cole: couldn't agree with your last assessment more. It is essential that the South African stocks outperform for this not to be a "fake out" rally.

Charlton Heston
(Mon Aug 11 1997 14:35)
Could one of you gentlemen let the market know that gold is up today? None of my gold stocks seem to be getting the message. Is there an explanation for this?

Thank you very much

(Mon Aug 11 1997 14:50)
CHARLTON HESTON: Yes. You brought the wrong gold stocks. In order to correct this problem it will be necessary to buy the right gold stocks. Glad to help.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 15:14)
RJ is a realist

RJ did say that he has the yellow running in his veins and when/if things turned, he probably would be buying.
As a realist he sees the stock market action which is to an extent based on all the pro and con articals plus the government statistics as per markets/gold. He sees everyone buying the bullcrap; so why fight it.
Simply, the market told him, the time is not right for the yellow.
I personally would be careful with the platinum group metals and truly wonder if the Russkies are as inept as hinted -just a feeling.

George Cole
(Mon Aug 11 1997 15:24)
trend changing
HUI outperforming XAU today. And Joberg outperforming HUI. Just what one would want to see if the trend is changing for real.

Signing off until Wed.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 15:28)
@Beaver's Den
George: Dagnabbit! Don't sign off yet, I jist signed on and I need to read your posts! Where you goin anways until Wednesday?

(Mon Aug 11 1997 15:30)
Question from Dummy
can you explain/confirm for this dummy the reason for stocks
keeping on pretty steady course today?. For the first time there was
no significant drop this afternoon due to "shorts stepping in, taking
profit". Does this mean that shorts ran out of steam? Are they
just regrouping? Taking different strategy?

(Mon Aug 11 1997 15:37)
Charlton Heston -- The answer is that the smart money wades in to the 'Blue Chip' gold stocks first. Then the higher cost producers, and finally the speculatives. Look at it this way, you can buy a high quality Blue Chip, say Newmont Gold ( NEM or NGC, I like NGC ) on the cheap. When everyone else gets interested in those stocks, they'll be 30% - 50% higher than they are now. Then the crowd will be looking for 'more reasonably priced' gold stocks. I think you get the picture now.

Big Dummy
(Mon Aug 11 1997 15:40)
@ Miro has two faces
Okay you dummy - you got it! Here goes: I can confirm thge dow closed up today.

Thank you very much.

Miro, are you a Bull, Bear or a Pig on gold? I'm trying to decide which one I am.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 15:43)
@ Beaver's Den
Big Dummy: You're definitely not a Bull, nor a Bear. You may be a PIG, but I would gather that you're more like an absolute eeeeddddiiiooottttttt!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 15:44) a tribute to friends and foe...
Mooney...this ones for you ( it has worldwide appeal ;- ) ) to WW...let's beat the horse deader and deader...

The idea of the 'small/little' people ( working-class-burger-flippers-low-wage-burnouts ) needing to be protected ( by unions ) against low wage jobs from the big-bad-wolf ( Ceo's and major Corp.'s ) both confuses and worries me.

1. I have always wondered what the heads of union's agenda has been. It is to:
a ) to further their own agenda
b ) to further their own agenda
c ) to further their own agenda
d ) to help the poor and helpless

2. I have always wondered the agendas of the attorneys ( lawyer ) that represent the unions. It is to:
a ) to further their own agenda
b ) to further their own agenda
c ) to further their own agenda
d ) to help the poor and helpless

The real issue that Everyone ( libs AND conservs AND nations alike ) needs to get behind is education...wait a second...I was going to ramble on about how education is needed for people in all societies to get better jobs and to seek better pay and that people need to get off their asses and do something about their 'miserable lives' but then it was going to sound like a broken record or a 'conservative' ( and I know this group hates a broken record ) . And then I was going to turn the coin and talk like the libs. and say I've been sh*t on my Whole life and it's because of the other guy Not my shortcomings blah, blah...Right, another broken record. I don't like to generalize with regards to politics, so I won't. Instead I'll say this... wait, no I won't...OK...I'll say this...

Get off your asses and get educated and educate your children and teach your children to educate their children and so on until you create this Ugly cycle of educating the youth ( I'm brainstorming here ) . This way, one can 'earn' a good job and be productive in his/her own small ( relatively speaking of course ) society and 'earn' a good wage or be a CEO of his/her own company or be proud of your work and show others your pride and be good to your neighbors and...wait...what? oh, this is a precious metals page? The hell it is... this is an invest in your future page...right? So invest in the future...educate and be educated...make your own bed...

Anyway, I'm hungry and sick ( stomach virus ) and I've got to go to the toilet...I wonder if gold will follow.


mooney...btw...that's at least the second rock ( first was that whole J. Kennedy drunken rage thing ) you've thrown at [US]. What axe are you grinding anyway? Are you not 'North American'? please correct me if I'm wrong... be nice to your neighbors...I love you man!!! :- )

Big Dummy
(Mon Aug 11 1997 15:46)
@Ima Idiot
Beaver: Thank you very much.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 15:50)

Many of the well known miners can't make decent profits, even at $400 gold, which thus far; is a power elite no/no.
This is further clouded by the large number of shares that many of them have - but it makes losses look less onerous.

Many made big bets on higher gold prices and paid big bucks to put their projects on line.

Getting out of debt for many; means still more shares.
IMHO; for many the best bet is more shares followed by reverse splits and then highly concentrated programs to bring all costs ( including the front office copy machine ) down.

If such a program was successful and the power elite stopped pushing gold around; many would fly like eagles.

But with all that said, they all are mining something more valuable than a politicians word and the paper the bosses put out.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 16:04)
I am a PIG...
now, now miro and eeeeddiiiiiooott...let's be nice.

Jack - I can understand your concern w/ plat. It is thin enough as it is without the Rooskies throwing curves. They are a very sly bunch of cats...and continue to wait for favorable pricing...maybe. I do think, however, that their supply has dwindled and they are experiencing a wide variety of troubles with respect to pulling more out of the ground. RJ/MikeS are correct ( imho ) in calling for 430/500+ range for 1-2 yrs.

Review some of that Disney/DJ stuff. It is informative.

Thins the blood, huh? :-$


(Mon Aug 11 1997 16:14)
another hot day
My recollection is GS and GB have equity stakes in NEM and ABX, respectively. Does anyone know how much ?

(Mon Aug 11 1997 16:18)
328.60 approximately
Best close since Dark Thursday ( July 3 ) .

(Mon Aug 11 1997 16:25)
To Big Dummy
Hey Big Dummy ;- ) , Sorry for my misleading post. It was supposed to be
"Gold keeping on pretty steady course" not "stocks .." :- (
That's what you get trying to peak at Kitco during busy day on my regular
job. Well, I am bull and long on gold ( though I still have some money in stocks )

(Mon Aug 11 1997 16:30)
Intrest rates:
There have to be some very sweaty hands in dc these days. With the goldilocks economy stock market, expectations are so high there is little room for disappoitment. With a twenty trillion or so debt load real intrest rates must remain very low. And above all confidence in the system must be maintained ( the reason for the cover up of flight 800 )

A real rate of 5% would amount to about one quarter of gnp. Could the economy carry that? What might cause people to demand a real rate of 5% or greater? A little fear might. Fear that some of that debt may not be repaid. Foreign selling of a few hundred billion of our tbonds might also cause a rise in real rates. A good stiff stock market down draft, say something about 1000 dow points down in a single week might do it. But the one they worry about the most, the one they have conspired and colluded so successfully, over the last seventeen years to prevent, is a gold price rising in excess of the phony cpi. Alas sad for the powers tasked with keeping the lid on, that is exactly what we will see once their big friends are done buying their fill of the gold market. In fact there is a possibility all these events may transpire at about the same time, kind of like the opposite of goldilocks, call it a nightmare.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 17:18)
Germany: Bundesbank set for new inflation


By Andrew Fisher in Frankfurt

Inflation is threatening to raise its head again in Germany - though the signs
are ever so faint, as yet - and the Bundesbank is making preparations to
keep it at bay by raising interest rates.

But when and by how much remain uncertain. A small move could come
this week with the next securities repurchase ( repo ) tender. Or it could be
delayed until August 21 - the next council meeting - or later. By setting a
fixed repo rate for only two weeks of the bank's four-week summer break,
the Bundesbank itself began the speculation.

Since this is now the third week, the guessing game is proceeding in
earnest. Bundesbank-watching is back in vogue after a long period of
unchanged interest rates. The repo, through which the bank influences the
money market, has been fixed at 3 per cent for the past year.

Although economists are divided on whether the Bundesbank will act just
yet, they do not expect a rise in the discount and Lombard rates - now 2.5
per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively - for some time. Attention is
concentrated on the repo as the most likely advance weapon in the
Bundesbank's fight against inflation. A switch to a variable rate tender
tomorrow would allow the repo to edge up to perhaps 3.2 per cent initially
and 3.5 per cent by year-end.

Bundesbank anxieties have been reawakened by the steep rise in the
dollar, though it eased on Friday to around DM1.85. Since last August, the
D-Mark has fallen 25 per cent against the US currency. This has helped
exporters, propelling German shares to record levels, but also lifted import

So far, these have not fed into inflation. But Mr Eckhard Schulte,
economist with IBJ Research in Frankfurt, reckons rising producer prices
( up 1.4 per cent in June over the previous year ) and import prices ( up 3.5
per cent ) "will soon affect consumer prices as well". Thus inflation could
exceed 2 per cent, a level which sets off alarm bells, at the central bank, in
the autumn.

This concern is certainly shared by Mr Otmar Issing, a senior director of
the Bundesbank. He has warned about price trends, saying in a weekend
interview these were clearly moving "in the wrong direction".

He told Brsenzeitung, a financial daily, that monetary conditions had
eased markedly as a result of the D-Mark's decline. While not indicating
when rates might rise, he made clear the bank would not be held back by
the approach of the single currency or the state of the economy.

In fact, Mr Issing suggested the opposite. Action now against inflation
could help bolster the euro, due to be introduced in 1999. "The European
central bank will have to pick up the pieces, if we make mistakes today in
our stability-oriented policies."

He also overrode fears that even minor rate rises could unsettle economic
recovery by saying high unemployment was largely a structural problem.
As for the growth outlook, he saw signs that domestic demand was picking
up to accompany the boom in exports.

Some economists feel Mr Issing is over-emphasising the inflation demon.
Marginal rate rises would do little to bring down the US currency, says Mr
Stefan Schneider of Paribas Capital Markets.

"It should stay calm and accept a temporary overshooting of the dollar".

Some of Mr Issing's colleagues agree. Mr Ernst Welteke, head of the
regional central bank of the state of Hesse and a Bundesbank council
member, says a rise in rates would not be advisable with the jobless rate
so high. But Mr Issing is not easily dissuaded. If rates do not change this
week, a rise is on the cards soon.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 17:31)
Hi gang, anyone going to the CBOT seminar at 300pm on Aug 26 in NYC at Waldorf Hotel?
Me & wife are going ( live in north Jersey )
Ps Earl you get my mail ?
Cherokee sent you a couple too.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 17:33)
Thainland-Employers unable to remit-short of cash
Employers short of
cash to pay
provident funds

(Mon Aug 11 1997 17:37)
Gerard Baker: Alan Greenspan, master of
the universe


Gerard Baker considers the reputation of the chairman of the Federal
Reserve Board

When Mr Alan Greenspan was appointed to the chairmanship of the US
Federal Reserve Board 10 years ago today, he set out his vision of the

His term of office, he said with heavy irony, would be a period marked by
the familiar economic landmarks of years past: "Inflation, which always
stays put; the stock market, which is always a bull; the dollar, which is
always stable; interest rates which always stay low; and employment,
which always stays high."

To general laughter he dedicated his term of office to "those who have the
capability of repealing the laws of arithmetic".

Ten years later, some people are beginning to wonder whether Mr
Greenspan might not have pulled off just such a feat. As he prepares to
embark on his second decade in the chairmanship, the US economy has
seldom been in better shape. Virtually all the ambitions he breezily laid out
10 years ago have been fulfilled.

Economists and politicians argue heatedly about what might have been
responsible for this benign state of affairs. They differ over the extent to
which the globalisation of business, improvements in new technology or
even the end of the cold war might have played a part. And they differ
over how long the good times will last. But few dissent from the
proposition that, whatever the state of the US economy, Mr Greenspan's
role in managing it has been critical.

"We had thought about just giving you a standing ovation and saying let's
go home," one senator told him last month when he appeared before
Congress to give his half-yearly testimony on the state of the economy. "A
national treasure" is how another senator has described him.

It is this kind of tribute that has ensured Mr Greenspan a place in the
pantheon of the world's central bankers. But what precisely has he done to
deserve the plaudits? And, as he contemplates several more years in the
job, can he continue to enjoy such a strong reputation?

There have been, broadly, two distinct phases to the Greenspan years.
Both demonstrate, in different ways, the centrality of the Fed's role in US
economic performance of the past decade.

The first, between 1987 and 1992, was a time of almost continuous crisis
management as the domestic US economy reeled from stock market crash
to recession to banking crisis. The second period, beginning in 1992, has
been one of greater stability, though arguably it has posed even more of a
test for the chairman. In both periods Mr Greenspan came under heavy

His first term could hardly have got off to a worse start. Within two
months, the Fed's carefully plotted course for reducing inflation was torn
up by the stock market crash of October 1987. The Fed had been
gradually raising interest rates in the months before the crash, but was
forced into a U-turn by the events of that October. Its policy-making open
market committee had to deal with the overriding fear that the fall in the
stock market would reduce demand in the real economy as investors
retrenched because their wealth had been sharply reduced. It loosened
monetary policy in late 1987.

Those fears proved groundless, but it was too late. Inflation accelerated in
1988, forcing the Fed to slam the brakes on again.

He was criticised for this in hindsight. But at the time, most analysts agreed
that Mr Greenspan and his colleagues made the right decision. They had
no choice but to ease policy in spite of the inflation spike. "For all the
criticism, he did exactly what he was supposed to do after the '87 crash,"
says Mr David Hale, economist at Zurich Kemper, the investment
advisers. "He pumped liquidity into the system and helped avoid a

The next crisis Mr Greenspan faced came on less suddenly, but presented
even greater difficulties. At the end of the 1980s, the over-extended US
economy began to face serious financial difficulties. Reckless lending
policies had begun to bring down hundreds of savings and loans
institutions. Speculative investment in property had encouraged dubious
lending practices even by the most respectable of banks.

When property prices began to fall, thousands more financial institutions
collapsed. By 1990, the contraction had turned into a fierce recession, as
banks stopped lending. A full-scale credit crunch was under way.

The Fed's critics argue that Mr Greenspan reacted too slowly to the
development, perhaps because it was still trying to recover from the
post-1987 inflation. The central bank began steadily cutting interest rates in
1990, but the process was painfully slow and did not stop the unfolding
financial crisis.

"Nibbling around the edges," was how Mr James Tobin, the economist
described the policy. Under intense political and financial pressure Mr
Greenspan at last agreed in December 1991 to cut short-term rates by a
full percentage point - an unusually large reduction - in a belated effort to
bale out the banking system.

Mr Greenspan's defenders say the sharp cuts in interest rates around this
time may have been late, but they were enough to stop the rot. And it is
true that the banking system had largely overcome the crisis within a few
years. But it had been a close-run thing. And President Bush and his
closest colleagues never quite forgave Mr Greenspan for failing to act
sooner in a way that might have saved their political skins.

Having negotiated what he described as these "50 mile per hour
headwinds" Mr Greenspan entered the second phase of his chairmanship,
the start of what many regard as his finest hour.

The main and most difficult task for any central bank is to pursue a
monetary policy which maintains growth without allowing inflation to get
out of control. Since economies generally veer between inflationary and
deflationary pressures, this means the authorities must adjust interest rates
not only by the right amount but, crucially, at the right time to head off
emerging booms or busts. The difficulty is that interest rates have a lag of a
couple of years before they have their full effect.

Since the expansion got fully under way in 1992, the Fed can claim some
credit for it. The bank's most important achievement, though, came in
1994, when, with only slim evidence of early inflationary pressures, it
gradually tightened policy, acting pre-emptively to forestall the risk of a
surge in prices.

In the event, the Fed doubled interest rates in a year. The timing was
precise. By 1995, inflationary pressures had subsided almost as soon as
they had begun and the Fed was able to cut rates again. Economists
attribute this success principally to Mr Greenspan's judgment.

"He has a remarkable grasp of the detail of the economy," says one former
member of the Fed's Board of Governors. "That enables him to spot
dangers almost the moment before they appear."

But Mr Greenspan is no "inflation nutter". In the past few months, the Fed
has abstained from raising interest rates.

And Mr Greenspan has come closer than central bankers usually permit
themselves to endorsing an optimistic view of the economy. This view
holds that US performance has fundamentally improved in the 1990s in a
way that enables the economy to grow faster without an acceleration of
inflation. It is shared by a number of economists, though not by all of Mr
Greenspan's colleagues at the Fed.

The chairman is not a full convert to this "New Paradigm" school of
economic thought, but he has shown himself to be a pragmatist: he is willing
to admit the possibility that the foundations of monetary policy might have
shifted in recent years.

As he put it in his most recent testimony to Congress: "Important pieces of
information, while just suggestive at this point, could be read as indicating
basic improvements in the longer-term efficiency of our economy. The
Federal Reserve has been aware of this possibility . . . and has operated
with a view to supplying adequate liquidity to allow the economy to reach
its highest potential."

Some believe Mr Greenspan's toughest challenge could yet be to come: in
the form of turmoil in the equity markets.

Last December, he famously wondered aloud whether equity prices might
have become overvalued, driven higher by the "irrational exuberance".
After a brief correction, stock prices resumed their upward flight as
investors decided they disagreed with the Fed chairman.

This presents Mr Greenspan with a problem. If stock prices are indeed
overvalued, he knows that a downturn will follow. Should he try to forestall
the risk by gently deflating the market in advance? That might seems
prudent - but what if the market is not overvalued? The Fed could lose
credibility rapidly if Mr Greenspan's warnings fall on deaf ears.

As Mr Hale remarks: "There is still plenty of room for his reputation to
collapse. If we get a market crash or some other wreck, he could yet be in
for a roasting."

(Mon Aug 11 1997 18:23)
IRG (inflation-relative-to-gold)
The IRG is 3.1% per year overall for the post-gold standard period. It also corresponds to the inflation-adjusted average annual return on gold held since the price was last $35/oz.

This is calculated as follows: CPI differential 1970-1997 is 4.134.

4.134 * $35 ( 1970 gold price ) = $144.69.

Inflation-adjusted increase in the price of gold since 1970 is therefore

$328.60 ( today's close ) / $144.69 = 2.27.

The annual rate of inflation that causes an increase of a factor of 2.27 in 27 years is 3.1%.

Thus holding gold since it was effectively de-linked from paper in the early 70s ( that is, when the price started climbing above $35 ) has had an effective annual rate of return of 3.1%.

I prefer to think of the value of gold as a constant, and the value of paper varying with respect to gold. From that perspective, we can say the the true rate of inflation - the creeping worthlessness of paper money as measured by the amount of it required to obtain a fixed amount of gold on the open market - has averaged 3.1% over the last 27 years. In other words, the dollar, as measured by its ability to purchase gold, has been dropping at that rate.

The CPI would say that the average annual rate of inflation over the past 27 years has been 5.4%.

Expressed in other terms, compared to 27 years ago, a dollar gets one-fourth the amount of goods and services, and one-tenth the gold.

An ounce of gold gets 2.27 times as much in goods and services as it did then.

This does not quite jive with the "good suit" theory. Based on these calculations, over time, an ounce of gold gets a suit that is 3.1% better than the suit it could get last year.

Scrutiny of these calculations is welcome.

Respectfully submitted,


(Mon Aug 11 1997 18:38)
Kev: Nothing in the mail. .... Your computer turned on?? ... :- ) ) ) ) .... Buy stop is still in place for 240 corn.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 18:39)
2 - Excellent analysis. What your figures and thoughts are missing is the fact that the 1970 gold price was equal to that of 1935 ( approx. ) and that, in reality, it was severely undervalued in 1970. Was there really NO inflation in the 40's, 50,s and 60's? A good way to check would be to go to a local library and call up on microfiche newspaper ads from those decades and compare the price of staples. ( Bread, milk, hamburger, hot dogs, chocolate bars, soap, toothpaste, comic books, papier de toilet, etc ) . How about using a basket of goods from 1925 and 1935 and then comparing that figure with 1970 and 1997. Sound fair enough?

(Mon Aug 11 1997 18:51)
What conclusion is drawn by novelist Kurt Vonnegut about the Internet hoax falsely attributing to him a speech he hadn't written or delivered? "Some jerk infected the Internet with an outright lie. It shows how easy it is to do and how credulous people are." The "MIT commencement address" that Vonnegut never gave was actually an essay written by Chicago Tribune columnist Mary Schmich ( whom Vonnegut has praised ) . The essay began: "Ladies and gentlemen of the class of 1997: Wear sunscreen.'' The origins and purpose of the hoax have not yet come to light. ( AP 7 Aug 97 )

(Mon Aug 11 1997 18:57)
Here's a report with shades of things to come in paragraph two !: ) )

(Mon Aug 11 1997 18:59)
A good point, one to which I am not equipped to respond. I do not understand how gold could be undervalued in 1970 - wasn't it traded in the international market in dollars? Are you saying that denial of access to those markets by US citizens had the effect of undervaluation?

(Mon Aug 11 1997 19:07)
Roebear @StockMarketSummary
Roebear: I sure hope Dow will drop to a misquoted price in paragraph
two and stay there ;- ) Unfortunately Dow did not drop to 7068. The low
price for today was 7968. 7068 should send gold through the roof ;- )

(Mon Aug 11 1997 19:08)
@ The Public Library
Thought For The Day ( or any day ) : )

T.S. Eliot

"I am not myself very much concerned with the question of influence, or with those publicists who have impressed their names upon the public by catching the morning tide, and rowing very fast in the direction in which the current was flowing; but rather, that there should always be a few writers pre-occupied in penetrating to the core of the matter, in trying to arrive at the truth and set it forth, without too much hope, without ambition to alter the immediate course of affairs, and without being downcast or defeated when nothing appears to ensue."

(Mon Aug 11 1997 19:09)
Earl I sent $ mails to ya in the past 5 days, Cherokee sent ya 3.
I'm gonna try againBBL: ) 88

(Mon Aug 11 1997 19:12)
Earl I didnt mean to send ya money, but ya can keep it all the same : )
$=4, capn speak

(Mon Aug 11 1997 19:14)
Warning to all would be Rapists, Murders, and Low Lifes in general.
AP reported on or about Aug. 6-7 that the alleged murderer of about five people, ( including world reknowned designer Gianni Versace and real estate developer Lee Miglin ) , helped in his own identification when he pawned a gold coin on July 7 in Miami Beach. He then left a tell-tale FINGERPRINT. He had earlier stolen the gold coin from Miglin along with several thousand dollars worth of his clothing and his Lexus. Double Moral here. Moral #1 - Honest people - Don't encourage thieves and murderers to stalk you by buying fancy Japanese cars ( corrolary - don't aid the destruction of the American economy by purchasing said vehicles. - ref. Economics 101 ) .
Moral # 2 - Low Lifes - Don't steal gold coins. It doesn't pay in the end.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 19:14)
2: That is a nice piece of work ( IRG ) I have printed it out and want to think about it. Last night, speaking with DJ about this subject, I suggested that gold is still searching for its "right" price since being set free. It is trying to find out how much paper money is out there. Do you agree? If so, it would seem that $328 is "too high" from an American point of view by looking at your calculations.

Another factor. I often make the mistake of just thinking of gold from an American point of view. I made that error last night talking with DJ. In reality gold is universal, the only true international money. Therefore its price reflects an aggregate of all the worlds currencies, all the mistakes made by all the governments collectively. Do you see my point? Thais are buying gold for Thai reasons, Koreans are buying for Korean reasons etc. All those market decisions are factored into the dollar price. This gold riddle is a difficult one to crack but you are thinking the right way.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 19:35)
2 - Not saying what you implied I was saying. Point of fact is that the price of Gold was pegged at U.S. $35 from mid-30's until early 70's, by which time the whole world knew that it was substantially undervalued. I believe that France and a few other countries started trying to cash in U.S. dollars for gold and this caused the U.S. to revoke its previous policy of allowing such redemptions. Within a short time frame Nixon had to let gold run free. This is why you can not use the 1970 $35 as a base year. Probably about $200 in 1975 is more realistic. Happy Trails. :- )

(Mon Aug 11 1997 19:42)
@The Public Library

Re:your 19:14. Bill Buckner also has charts showing the price of gold in i believe 5 different currencies.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 19:43)
Dow/Gold Ratio 24.50, still on the downside of a spike, trending down.

A Lurker
(Mon Aug 11 1997 20:12)
Green Thumb re Correlation of Gold and Cannabis: I have read reports that the importation AND use of heroin has risen 100's of percent during the last couple years. This closely corresponds to the increase of imports from China. The balance of trade figures most certainly do not include these illegal imports. Bet you could double the numbers reported for a more accurate reading.

Seems that the USA exports our inflationary dollars at the expense of our children and thier future. The war on drugs must continue, in order to keep prices high, otherwise these "exported" dollars will remain in the USA and cause inflationary pressures. This would not be good for interest rates and bonds. Funny how it almost seems as if "they" need to keep illegal drugs illegal & expensive.

Interest rates tied to drugs, who would of thought. I can just hear it now coming from CNBC: Deflationary prices in illigal drugs cause inflationary concerns on Wallstreet - Stock Market Crashes, film at 11. But then again they could put the spin on it and say "Look! Another $60 to $80 billion per year can now be allocated to the stock market. DJIA at 12,000 and rising, we ARE truly in a new era...

JMK - "In the end not only am I dead but so are your children"

(Mon Aug 11 1997 20:17)
Hi Byron: Thanks. I found it.
Quote for you: Underwear and politicians should be changed often; and for the same reason.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 20:20)

The devil was not in the "gold window". The devil was in the overvalued
dollar." Tlaga walks us through dollars declining purchasing power &
role of gold from 1920-1973:

(Mon Aug 11 1997 20:23)
Kev: Amazing what happens when you turn the power on. .... I have one from you but none from Cherokee. Check the URL you have stored. My ISP had a beef with some guys with deeper pockets. Rather than fight over the name they added "net" to the original. ...... It wasn't as if the URL was long enough to begin with.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 20:51)
The problem with UPS and other companies is that profits are setting records and no sharing with the working people ie screw them. This causes family break ups alcohol and drug abuse for which WE pay for so that the CEOs can score bigger profits and payolla while society which allows these morons to profit pays for their violence against home and family. The kids that become delinquents b/c of CEO policy will not attack where THEY live but where we live!! Corp Mgmt in this country is the definition of godless immorality. THEY SHOULD START taking ( my favorite right wing cover term ) personal responsibility for the problems they are causing in society and govt which has provided them with the opportunity to profit enormously. GO Teamsters!!!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 20:58)
Asia trading. Gold down 90c, silver down 2c, Nikkei up 191

(Mon Aug 11 1997 21:07)
Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL, Part - V (11 August 1997)
JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK & HARD SPOT: First, FRB Report warned in Sept 1995 when DOW was 4700, then Greenspan alerted all with DOW about 6000! Now the DOW tops 8300!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 21:07)
WW: You remain in rare form. Lubricated with oil of vitriol. ...... My heart really isn't in this but maybe it would a good idea to take a moment, reduce the level of indignation and consider the possibility that other factors may be a work here as well. That the system of social welfare, as we have known it, has contributed much to our continuing social problems. A system that has destroyed individual dignity and self worth is as culpable, in the decline of the social fabric, as all the self serving CEOs in North America combined. ............ But that's just a disinterested opinion. For discussion purposes, it ain't worth a pitcher of warm spit.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 21:22)
With names like BIG DUMMY, no wonder this is a place for the wantabee's that need attention because your gut hangs out over your "you know what". Can't you people be a little more creative or is this the place I really think it is ! Please, some of you seem to be all right so get on with it. The ones that are not please remove yourself, because your making the rest of us look like you. You really sound as DUMB as your handle and that's stupidity and all of the above. Who ever it is get out!!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 21:36)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

UP, UP and Away!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 21:46)
@ Recycle Bin:
Donald: Problem with politicians, as like underwear, once their cleaned out they get recycled. : )

(Mon Aug 11 1997 21:55)
@ For What It's Worth Dept:
Interesting. Just checked out Bart's Advertisement Site above. Quite a list of new ads lately. Maybe the bottom is really in.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:02)
Smartwad: Hmmmmmm??? Try as I might, I was unable to locate, even one, comment from the regular contributors, that might reinforce your ill considered opinion. This forum is generally dedicated to dispelling the ignorance that resides in us all. That's why we're here.

For those who already know it all, there are more fulfilling places to be. And they should take their bad manners with them.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:18)
D.A.: D.A. why do you prescribe only BUYING ( commodities ) ??? I'm sure that you have already stated why, but I must have missed it. Thank You.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:18)
Earl:: Saying that govt economic support to families breaks them up is like saying eating pure fat causes one to lose weight. The arguments you make are those of the elite who want to develop a Calvinist view that they are privileged and that anyone who does not rise to their level is less worthy. This will never happen as 80 % of the rich didnt earn their privilege. The goal of the elite is to try to convince the people to emaciate the SS and medicare they paid for so that the US currency and financial mkts will not cause a disruptive depression which would erode their power. Remember if US loses Reserve Currency status there will be big time financial losses in the US. THINK!!!!Times will then change for the better!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:21)
Smartwad: Jumpin' crap! That post of your's is even more irritating on the second read.

You wrote: "or is this the place I really think it is ! Please, some of you seem to be all right so get on with it. The ones that are not please remove ...". ...... On behalf of those here on this site, "some of ( whom ) seem to be alright" and others of us who may well not be alright, I apologize profusely for sullying your delicate senses.

It's also an unfortunate oversight on our part, I suppose, in that we have not posted regular feeding hours for those with a need to be spoon fed information on a regular basis. For the moment however, all feeding utensils have been washed dried and put away for the day. Sorry 'bout that. In the meantime, feel free to continue lurking, it's certain to be your larger contribution.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:21)
@slow night
Slow night here at Kitco, eh?

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:22)
WW - Please find another forum for your soap opera. With a family of five I REALLY can't afford the cost of all the tissue you are causing me to purchase. Besides, have you ever, for a moment, even considered all the ideas that everyone else has put in your face for the last six months? Earl's latest only being a last feeble attempt at trying to speak reason to the totally brainwashed. viz "...the system of
social welfare, as we have known it, has contributed much to our
continuing social problems. A system that has destroyed individual
dignity and self worth is as culpable, in the decline of the social
fabric, as all the self serving CEOs in North America combined."
Please WW, talk gold. Unprovable theories about the disintegration of your Great Society, while interesting, will not be solved here, and belong at another forum, if not in the history books, along with the why and wherefore of the Fall of Rome.
BTW - Don't sell the Strad Strad, just because the U.S.A. is at the end of its hiatus and you perceive that you need more money ( someone must fiddle when Washington burns ) . I know ( perceive ) that with a little extra effort you can make scads more filthly lucre than you are pulling in now. Actually, I started to give you that same message last night but it got lost in the ether. Although not on a comparable scale, I sold my 60's solid wood body Stratocaster with custom case along with my COMPLETE Spidey collection in the early 70's just to make ends meet for my young family. I have been regreting both decisions ever since. ( And I can't even play guitar! ) . ( Although I can read ) .

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:23)
Is the moon full or something?

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:27)
kev & earl-----

the isp and url problems that are so wide-spread can
be attributed to SOLar hyperactivity ( electro-magnetic-flux ) .
remember the ripple effect i alluded to many weeks ago?
hello......the waves ( emf ) take some time to make their
presence felt. i don't think the us navy has anything
to worry about: ) -- ( speed )

my system has been plauged with slow load, no load,
and everything imaginable for the last two months.
i did not get your e-mail kev. earl, i've sent you
several in the last month along with some others
who have not responded. it must be a hit and miss situation
that works quite in-frequently. a new modem is in the

the e-mail address is still the same:

got a letter from the broker today ( ira epstein ) with a
new trade-able index! the dow average index is now
available for me to short!!!! perfect timing.

gotta go count some smoke signals and recharge the ssm
for a run to ganymede. flux has pissed chaos off and
they are trying to out-do each other. the bottom IS in,
along with the top. imnsho--------------!; ) speed --
got a chinese silkworm comin at ya-------------

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:29)
Looking For Action:
Panda: If your looking for some "action", suggest a review of late last Saturday night. The library was closed so I missed all the "fun". : (

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:31)
@ Ooops:
Last quote was me not Panda.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:31)
TED AND MOONEY: you guys are alright but you dont even recognize how you are caught up in this mania and capital worship even though you think you are iconoclastic goldbugs. Look where the struggle is developing. You are both smart and in a few years will be able, with hindsight, look back on this and laugh at the way you are thinking just as former hippies probably laugh at their 60's musings.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:33)
Since Panda has declared it to be a slow night, I will take issue with your comment "Jumpin' crap!" and venture to proclaim that even Bruce Wayne and his ward never stooped to such vulgar expletives!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:33)
Does anyone here have preference for following the spot gold price or the front month futures contract? It seems that the paper price of gold ( futures ) is the controlling element for the recent past ( 12-18 months ) . Does anyone know of a period when the spot price ( cash ) drove the futures?

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:37)
WW I now know to blame the liberals for the plumping of America, those gov't agencies who keep telling everybody to eat the carbs eat the carbs. And everybody keeps getting fatter because if you eat too many carbs you cannot burn fat. Believe it or not eating all fat Would make you lose weight because it forces your body into ketosis. Not that this extreme would be recommended. Read Barry Sears "Enter the Zone"; better health through eicosanoids. What are eicosanoids? The bodies super-powerful hormones whose discovery won a Nobel prize 1982. I hear that if we all eat a healthy diet that makes all our eicosanoids good ones then even gold will go up !: ) ) Sorry WW, you hit my nutrition button ; )

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:40)
Now I know it's a slow night! To be referenced not once, not twice, and even incorrectly posted for ( ? ) by Byron :- ) ) !

On the gold 'quote', the change in the spot gold price was more than the change in the Decembers futures price. What gives here? More importantly, which is the more important quote? It seems to me that the cash markets would be the most important. Then again, paper reigns supreme today. Thoughts anyone?

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:43)
As a Liberal ( goldbug ) I will admit that I subscribe to the principals of Democratic Socialism. Much like our friends in the UK and France Germany !

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:43)
WW: My comments here are delivered with the utmost respect. You have proven to be worthy, market related, contributor on many occasions. I have learned much from you.

On matters related to social issues and politics, it is another matter entirely. On such, I find your opinions distasteful in the extreme but that is my problem not yours. In terms of forming a judgement of your opinions, I have concluded that level of cognitive dissonance on your part is simply nothing short of amazing. It's a form of intellectual myopia issuing out of an almost missionary zeal. To the point where rational discussion of alternate points of view will not even be considered. Heaven forbid, that any of us should attempt to change your mind.

In terms of contradictions, it seems to me that leading the cheers for a financial collapes in order to bring about a worker's utopia, is not realistic. The most likely outcome of such an event is chaos, lower living standards for the poor and the disadvantaged and much worse form of government than we have now. .... And the wealthy will be even wealthier. Including Richard Gephart. ....... A disinterested opinion and still not worth a pitcher of warm spit, for discussion purposes.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:43)
As a Liberal ( goldbug ) I will admit that I subscribe to the principals of Democratic Socialism. Much like our friends in the UK and France Germany !

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:44)
I certainly hope that the squelch button happens soon !!!!!!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:54)

EB: You are probably right, the Rooskies are most likely holding back to drive prices higher.
While never consistantly following those metals, I remember seeing supply/demand figures over the years showing always a bit more supply than demand. This excess is/maybe in the hands of The Tiger Fund. The Russian holdback may be awaiting Tiger's hopefully slow disposal. Probably; this will be followed by a statement that Russia's reserves are good for only X number of years ( X ) being the variable that keeps the price up. The present price for Palladium, if it holds is good for both Stillwater and the Rooskies. Heard that Soros Interests were looking at Norilisk ( probably spelled wrong ) . Wish I knew what occured behind closed doors.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:54)
W.W..... Put yourself in the moron's shoes. You would fill your pockets
too!!! Do you condone what the pro athlete makes?? If you don't like what
position in society your in , then change it. I work in a manufacturing
plant here in Canada and have been there for 15 yrs. If and when I get tired of my job , I will get the education or trade I need to move on.
It was my mistake not to stay in school and nobody elses. Carey is just trying to fill his own pockets and save his job. UPS workers make $20 us
per/hr and I bet over half don't have a grade 10 education.
We have had the CAW banging at the doors for years , only because they
want to fill their pockets with my money.
I hope gold takes off so my retirement will come early!!!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:55)
O.K. I give up. It's raining here, and it's time to go to sleep.

Earl -- I never thought about that one. A goldbug who is a socialist and believes in a workers utopia. Gee, I always thought that specie was the cause of depressions, because it took away 'the necessary tools of policy' used by the government ( ? ) to 'correct' certain economic conditions. Hence, there was little or no long term inflation with specie, but there were frequent periods of economic 'displacement' which mightily inconvenienced the workers of the world. These periods were necessary to correct the inflationary periods brought on by whom ? ( Banks? )

How odd that a Social Democrat would hoard gold. An interesting dichotomy.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:55)
Earl thanks for the honest comments. As to the economic advancement of working people in the 30s, this occured b/c of the labor organizing power growth due to the depression and the loss of power by Capital because of the Stk mkt collapse. Capital and Mgmt will lose power vis a vis labor in a financial paper downturn. Thus, politics will become more progressive and pro worker. Progressive policies will start to rule vis a vis the present status of CEO worship.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 22:56)
WW: You're wrong! I thought you were going to Havana?!

Earl: You're right! Throw another eclair at WW.

Cherokee: That's one! Got any more? : )

Wait a minute, this is Monday night. Does Bart know what's going on in here?

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:02)
nails -- Is it nails or nailz? Or are you a different poster? Just trying to keep the handles straight.

FWIW -- In a paper meltdown, we would all suffer greatly. History informs us that this would be the most dangerous period, for often, appears a white knight on a white horse which is often, anything but.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:04)
WW: In a lighter vein. You wrote: " look back on this and laugh at the way you are thinking just as former hippies probably laugh at their 60's musings." .......... It has been said, that those who truly lived the 60s are now unable to remember them. ..... :- ) ) )

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:10)
panda - Moon will be full on 18th, therefore am hoping Prognosticator is correct and gold and silver drop off later this week so that we can buy on close on Friday for ENORMOUS gains next Mon,/Tues.
WW - You are alright too. Just your very decidedly one sided closed mind needs working on. Since you are obviously an American I would like to suggest to you that you study the thoughts of Benjamin Franklin. Believe me - He would heartily laugh at the ideas that you consider gospel. He would also advise you to tone down your rhetoric. ( Although its neither here nor there he also negotiated the loan from the King of France ( Louis 16th ) that assured your country's rebellious victory from the Mothercountry, but, of course, that doesn't prevent the final course from being good old American apple pie ) . And of course your Father's of the Revolution were mightily concerned with low tax rates, individual freedom, and relief from government interference.
And, oh yes, Mr. Progressive Lawyer, ( and Barb Streissand fan ) , your malignment of the 60's hippies, ( the decade of my youth ) , I find very apropos to your whole concept of painting all with the broad stroke of the brush. The youth of those times, who were so virulent Anti-Vietnam War, ( no offense veterans ) , which are so liberally clumped as hippies have since been proven to be correct, and I doubt if very many of them "probably laugh at their 60's musings." In fact I think that most of them still believe in the ideals that they espoused in those chaotic times and are proud of the stand that they took against the military/industrial establishment of the time. Whether you will be so steadfast in your Flag-waving antics another 30 years from now remains to be seen. Please WW. Give it up. Go elsewhere with the politics and when here - TALK GOLD!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:10)
I admit the workers arent perfect but if you look at the greed of the mgmt class ( many of whom are not to bright ) the uneducated working people have a right to be upset and demand their share. I admire the Japanese policy of limiting executive pay to a multiple of the lowest paid workers pay. They have guaranteed health care/college education and to a limited extent housing and food for all. They have the surplus and own our debt we have the deficit and are the debtor/ who is right Mr, Conservative wishful thinker. The quicker Labor Takes control Vis a vis the Corporate Mba idiots the better.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:13)
ALL - I come from a very poor family and I always remember my father telling me - Son - every time you get a bit down on the rich - just remember that the poor can't help the poor and the only help that you can count on the government to provide will be at the cost of your freedom. I have been pulling for the rich ever since, I may never get rich, but if I don't give up all my freedom to the government in a hope of holding down the rich - I've got a chance!!!! Go go go go - all you wealthy cats - maybe someday I can join in!!!!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:14)
Panda: "And the masses shall cry out for a saviour. Yea and verily. So it shall be." ........ That's what I was alluding to earlier. A dictator who promises to deliver us from our problems. The heroic figure on a white horse. ..... Ross Perot in Mercedes???? ....Has a familiar historical ring; doesn't it? Something like: ".... Peace. Peace in our time." ..... Or from boot camp: " We here to hep ya." ( Yeah, sarge and no, I don't type )

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:15)
Jim Dines has suggested that the Norilsk mine is depleted and the only reason there has been no announcement is that owners want to keep the miners working even though the mines reserves are insufficient to pay the 2 yrs in back pay owed to the miners.

Dines offered this only as a theoretical possibility that in Russia today anything is possible.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:18)
Hmm, you sound like you got your "Panties in a Wad" Earl. Maybe it's you playing the "Dummy". Who are you, really Earl A.K.A. Big Dummy or is it Little Dummy. You definitly have an idenity problem. I'd look into that Earl.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:22)
SPEED WE need the FOOD FIGHTS to hopefully educate you poor misguided conservatives.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:23)
Looks like Hepcat's dumb cousin - Not So Hepcat - has snuck in here.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:24)
@final comment tonight
I was listening to a talk radio program a while ago ( tonight ) . One of the topics was the new money coming out. I heard one caller nail it right on the head. The money is a 'note', an IOU. Apparently, a previous caller, who identified himself as a liberal, said that the money, "Just, 'floats', out there." The caller who mentioned the 'note' aspect of our currency, made reference to the liberal, and said that it was a scary comment that had been made. He also stated that gold is real. Gee, there might be something to this worthless gold after all!! Imagine that, on talk radio, in Boston. Wow.

Earl -- Check out Agnico Eagle ( AEM ) , what do you make of that 'gravestone' today? Trend reversal? Is it over for the gold stocks already?? Too many questions. Time to go to bed. Good night all....

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:26)
WW: In the lighter vein for me but, probably not for you: You wrote: "The quicker Labor Takes control Vis a vis the Corporate Mba idiots the better." ........... It must be source of infinite discouragement to you to realize that when Messr's ( sp ) Gephart, Kennedy, Bonior, Clinton, Certainly Gore, as well as Newt, and any other politico you care to name, are faced with a choice of listening to the proletariat or listening the moneyed interests, ....... the moneyed interests will win. Hands down. No contest. Always follow the money. Always. If the proletariat, does gain the ear of said magnificoes, it only be because they have the money. Principle????? You would have to be mad to consider such. Absolutely mad.

And so it shall be until the very end of time. Put not, your faith in men, my friend. Gold and a streetsweeper are much more reliable.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:31)
EARL I would never argue with your observation in the current money game which all of you rightists subscribe to. My view is of when it ends and grieviously dissappoints as is so hard to believe now. LETS TALK THEN!!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:32)
WW: Make up your mind. Either we are rich and cunning capitalists or poor, misguided, conservatives. Perhaps Mooney's last eclair knocked your spectacles askew or maybe the cognitive dissonance caused by your affinity for both gold and socialism is manifesting itself tonight! I for one am heeding Mr. Franklin's advice about early to bed. BBL

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:33)
Sooooooooooo@ Canada
Earl @ 23:04 : that was from the side door eh! : ) : ) : ) : )

WW: Jay Gould, Railroad Magnate, before the 1886 strike on his south-
western system. Said: " I can hire one half the working class to *kill*
the other half"

Soooo, not much has changed since 1886, as you no doubt know, the workers
worst enemy, is his fellow worker. That goes for citizens also, just
take a walk down your streets, was Jay Gould wrong ????

By the way, such is the case in Canada. Maybe *it* is in the water. : ) : )

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:33)
Earl..... Make that a Golden Streetsweeper!!!!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:35)
Mooney: Ya gotta love it. Some days bear greater presents than others. It takes all kinds to make a world. Ain't none of 'em missin'. This evening is like pulling a lovely pizza out of the oven. Some it amy fall on the floor but its no matter. The remainder is still a delight.

Smartwad: I had my say. Address it directly if you disagree with my opinion. In the meantime I pass on to other things. Also the email is valid and preferred, as well.

Dumb Cuz
(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:37)
Mooney, just got the family tree out and you will never guess! Yep,
from now on its "your dear cousin". Well, like they say, there is one
in every crowd ( family tree ) . Gold shaping up to take out 330. I'll
put my money on 332.50 by tomorrow. Yep, you guessed that one also.
Thats 3 32.5 0

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:39)
DA!! I have all the Nazi gold and I have
written calls against it. Nastarovia!!!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:39)
Earl, after regetfully reading your post 23:26 I'd really get some help and soon ! When was the last time you got hit on the head or fell out of bed ?
Your brain has turned to mush. When due you change costumes and turn into the Big Dummy anyway. Could it be when the clock strikes 12:00 midnight?

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:44)
WW - Please, Please, PLEASE stop your inane tirade. Sit back, leave us alone, and enjoy life for about the next three years. If you then want to rant and rave and wave the union Flag, come back and let us know. Maybe by then some of the participants here will have matured and will heartily agree with your myopic view. In the meantime do some reading on the period of your history known as the Revolutionary War. Study the thoughts of your founding fathers. In other words - Put Brain into Gear Before Engaging Mouth! Sorry to sound insulting, but as Earl points out, you have such a narrow focus that you seem to disgard all the facts that are put before you without even a first thought, never mind a second. I can not put in in any better words than those of Earl himself, with which I totally agree.
"I have concluded that ( the ) level of cognitive dissonance
on your part is simply nothing short of amazing. It's a form of
intellectual myopia issuing out of an almost missionary zeal. To the
point where rational discussion of alternate points of view will not
even be considered. Heaven forbid, that any of us should attempt to
change your mind."

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:45)
WW: When I was thirteen one of my grade school chums happened upon a union meeting. It was going on in his garage where a couple of local union officials were meeting with his dad, another union official. They put a couple of slugs in him but their gun jammed so they were finishing him off with some garden utensils when my pal happened along. Since he could ID the union reps he had to disappear. Never heard from him again. Then when I was 21 working construction, us guys used to sit around on break talking about scab laborers who got killed ( for real ) and how we would kill scab laborers. They didn't know that I was scab labor. Somehow I never acquired the taste for the glory of the union movement. They're the same suits that run the Corporations, just belong to a different country club. Try putting your life on the line to survive and make a buck. It's an education.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:47)

EB: You are probably right, the Rooskies are most likely
holding back to drive prices higher.
While never consistantly following those metals, I
remember seeing supply/demand figures over the years
showing always a bit more supply than demand. This
excess is/maybe in the hands of The Tiger Fund. The
Russian holdback may be awaiting Tiger's hopefully slow
disposal. Probably; this will be followed by a statement
that Russia's reserves are good for only X number of
years ( X ) being the variable that keeps the price up. The
present price for Palladium, if it holds is good for both
Stillwater and the Rooskies. Heard that Soros Interests
were looking at Norilisk ( probably spelled wrong ) . Wish
I knew what occured behind closed doors.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:49)
IDT thats why there are ACLU LAWYERS my friend. People you conservatives hate!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:52)
All that political balony

All this political bull made me press the wrong button. Today to make matters worst; damn it, a scab UPS truck almost drove me off the highway.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:53)
Bart and ALL - If Dumb Cuz at 23:37 is not the return of the moronic musings of Hepcat, I don't know what is!

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:53)
6pak: You make an interesting point. And it really is not confined to the US only but the western world in general. Wherever envy and class distinction are used for political expediency, there will ultimately be violence between groups. All struggling for a piece of the diminishing pie. That has certainly been the case in the US for a very long time. We even experience those thoughts here, from time to time. In the end, any process that divides and separates one group from another will, in crisis, prove to have been a disasterous and shortsighted undertaking.

We should all be individuals with a stake in the whole but nothing in the current state of affairs is directed to that result. Instead, we have become a fractious collection of groups all of whom grovel with special pleadings from an increasingly arrogant and distant govt.

And, bravo on the history lessons.

(Mon Aug 11 1997 23:54)
WW: You're pulling my leg right? By the way, I'm neither a liberal or a conservative.