Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 00:02)
"CAST YOUR VOTES" Will the real Dummy please stand up. POST your vote if you think Earl is playing the Dummy. "Yes" for he is or "NO" he is not. If we don't get at least 5 votes to keep Earl in, Smartwad will continue to chew away at him until he concedes.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 00:04)
WW ( 23:31 ) : Please expand on that comment. I don't think we disagree, necessarily, on things ending badly. We do probably disagree on the next step. I see chaos. I understand you to see a revolution of the proletariat and "... a govt of the people, by the people and for the people." .... Those were just some nice words Mr. Lincoln thought up when he was pressed. In the end, the best we can hope for in the present arrangement is that the rich will become increasingly distracted over time and allow some of those filthy riches to filter down those of us below.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 00:04)
IDT - I fear the worst. He's been hit on the head by a heavy object just one time too many!
Goodnight all, and especially you, Glenn and RJ - Wherever you might be!

(Tue Aug 12 1997 00:14)
Are all the Asian market closed today ( tomorrow ) or has Bart taken the night off and forgotten to update his 24-hour charts??

(Tue Aug 12 1997 00:19)
Your postings are getting more desperate and pathetic by the moment. I don't see you doing anything about anything. The only thing you can do right is to complain and snival, when you should get off your dead horse and find some work. This country was built for the working man and women, not for the guy who sits around on his computer making everybody believe theres something wrong with our country. Go get some help Earl.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 00:24)
Mooney: Belated apologies to all, for the expletive.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 00:33)
He has conceded and signed off to get the help he so desperately needs. Earl you are welcome back as soon as you gather up all your marbles. I want to see you playing with a full deck. Make sure the glass is full this time.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 00:35)
WW: For my two ( 2 ) cents worth, I like your posts, it is in the face.
Yet, the issue is, in fact not pro union, as it is more of, pro citizen.

The union, is the voice of citizens, ( *responsible* trade unions preferred
- *sell out* is a better description ) , no other voice exists, no other
organization is available to speak, or teach, a worker-citizen.

What is always lost, and is not encouraged. What is good for the worker,
is also good for all citizens. Unless of course, children working in
mines, should never have been stopped. Yet, a good many workers, did
believe, that a 12 year old had a right to work 12 hour days, along side
his father and brothers, such, was necessary, for all miner's families.

Liberals, ( and others ) wanted to have these children in school.Well,
it did cost a lot to the families, to have maybe six ( 6 ) of that families
bread earners sitting in a class room, day in, and day out, for many
citizens, education was considered, a waste of time, and money.

WORKER = citizen, Neigbour, client, customer, patient, voter, friend,
co-worker, life saver, volunteer, child, plaintiff, defendant,
juror, union worker, non-union worker etc. etc. *GOLDBUG*

(Tue Aug 12 1997 00:46)
Anyone here have anymore to say about Smartwad. Earl's gone, anyone else want to jump in? Otherwise, I have spook my peace and never to return again unless the issue arises.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 00:52)
WW ( 22:55 ) : I apologize for missing this post earlier. ...... I don't disagree with your contention that capital's position will deteriorate over time. Whether it will be good or bad for the rest of us, I haven't a clue. I'm honestly not wedded to either camp.

At the same time, I'm forced to soften my abject cynicism about money and politics. Not much but at least some. ..... To reformulate that thought; the winning gang will be determined by whatever group is more influential - read, effective - in maintaining the status quo vis a vis the seats of power.

For the recent past, money has provided the means by which our masters have been able to maintain their seats of power. It may well turn out that, in some future time, the working class will be able to form a cohesive unit strong enough and dedicated enough to overcome the natural advantage that money brings to the table. But for all of that, groups of people, even those playing on the same team, can be messy to deal with. Money is so much nicer. It passes around easily and like oil, it calms troubled waters. It never requires deals to be made or coalitions to be formed. It has universal appeal when a "Sitzmeister", unexpectedly, finds himself to be in a position where an appeal to an appellant is suddenly found appealing. But nonetheless, appalling to the rest of us. .... For the foreseeable future...... continue to follow the money. Patriots and true believers on the faith, are always cannon fodder.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 00:56)
Dow index
Cherokee -

Much enjoy your posts! Re Dow Index futures, I called Lind Waldock and they told they won't be trading until Oct. 1st. What is your information?

Hasta la vista. . .

(Tue Aug 12 1997 00:57)
Smartwad: While you're out and about, look for the dictionary. ..... Such a warm evenin'....... No doubt, it's holdin' the screen door open.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 01:09)
6pak ( 00:35 ) : Well put. Especially the familial sacrifice required to establish child labor laws. They were essential to the expansion of an educated people. Hadn't thought about it that way before. ....... but now look at what we've gone 'n done with it. Education, that is.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 01:18)
Your like a mongrel, Earl. You have so many sides you don't even know who's side your on. I'm afraid Earl your gonna make a mess you can't clean-up. Your postings are frail and insignificant at best. No one here takes them serious, because they consider the source. If you can't hold them fold em Earl. It's o.k. let it go.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 01:19)
asia market :
happy trading.....

(Tue Aug 12 1997 01:30)
Smartwad is here to stay. Earl hasn't had enough yet. Smartwad is going to chip away at what's left of Earl, which isn't much. Earl, your in the pipe headed for the sewer.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 01:39)
Smartwad: I know when I've met my match. You're down to one misspelling and a malaprop. ........ Lookout! Darn, you took the dictionary and now the screen door is swinging shut.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 01:40)
Smartwad, Hey pardner, you be new around thissee here parts aren't ya? Seem fer a stranger in Kitco town, ya gots yerself a lot of opinions aboot Earl. Seems like ya kinda wanna tell people who they believe, like they can't make up their own minds. Well smarfella, I'll be goin' back to the lockup an I'll be lookin'at them wanted posters fer yer ugly mug. I'll bet ya got yerself one a them thar aliases, all new and shiny ta hide behind. Suggest ya go over to the saloon and pour yerself one for the road, dude, cause ya shot yer wad and it's time fer ya ta git outta Dodge.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 01:47)
Roebear: LOL. ..... Was going to email this request because I didn't think you were playing night owl; that is: How's 'bout some details on the book you referred to earlier this evening? Useful? Fad, fact or fiction?

(Tue Aug 12 1997 01:53)
ROEBEAR, I think ya better saddle up old man and pull yourself together because their's a new sherriff in town. His name ain't Roebear either. So if I was you I'd starting heading for the exit, before ya make a move yer sorry for. So with that in mind go on down the road and make some new friends because your gonna need em. Now get on out of here mister.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 02:01)
Please be patient you'll meet your match in the sewer. Don't worry about my spelling because you sound like a queen.

Who Cares
(Tue Aug 12 1997 02:12)
WartCud - Master of Misers

I see WartCud, just in from the desolate digital wasteland beyond,
has violated and tarnished the placid pleasance of Kitco Kounty.

WartCud, chewer of Tsarian Tobacco, I query thee:

Donald made a comment about the relationship of gold / currency
in circulation. As much as I agree with him, I think he
just *might* be seriously wrong on this. My personal model
is that of voltage versus current. Ultimately, an electronic
circuit can do as much work as there is electromotive force
behind it. The number of electrons, theoretically, is
constant. They just get recycled over, and over again.

Ergo, cash in circulation are merely a means to mechanism
to shift assets behind balance sheets. It just gets
circulated over and over again.

Cash = current. Balance sheets = voltage.

Consequently, I believe the balance sheets count for more
than cash. A lot more. What effect do you suppose a
concurrent consolidation and collapse of corporate balance
sheets would have on current flow?

(Tue Aug 12 1997 02:15)
I have some unfinished business to attend to. I'll be back later to deal with you slim balls later. ( Roebear/ Earl ) . Think you can take me huh. When you scrub your knees and beg for forgiveness I'll let you both go. Stay put because your both a slam dunk in the toilet bowl. Flush you go....

(Tue Aug 12 1997 02:29)
Earl, Yes, I believe "Enter the Zone" by Barry Sears, is an excellent book for anyone seeking to improve their health. I am still reading it, but I am familiar with his basis from magazine articles. Dr Sears is a pioneer in biotechnology and drug delivery systems for heart and cancer patients. I believe he has hit on what is basically wrong with modern diet ( ex. our genes have not changed in 100k years, and 8k years ago there were no breads, pasta ... ) too many highly refined carbs/sugars messing up our insulin response increases appetite and eventually makes us sick. But the real break through is those eicosanoids. I know people who have been on his suggested "diet" and they sure go through a lot of food for people on a diet. They lose weight and have a lot more energy.
Some friends of mine who are very much into hefting iron and have probably tried every diet think this one is the best. Course they say that about every diet!
The book is available at for $16.80 and at Atlantic bookstores I got some surplus seconds of "Mastering the Zone" for $3 ( retail $17? ) which is mostly recipes.
Finally, the diet is fairly simple, ( no special foods or expensive formulas ) balancing carbs, fat and protein within a certain range; easy to do actually with a little practice. I would recommend it, it is at the least harmless and I am confident that it will help 75% or more of the people who try it.

Who Cares
(Tue Aug 12 1997 02:30)
TartSod - In the Bathtub?

The water closet is an interesting analogy, but my preference
is the bathtub. Why, just last week, I was discussing the
idea to a friend...

Assume we have the faucet turned on, okay? Let's assume
we have some fixed flow, call it X ft/sec of water entering
the bathtub. Let us also assume that we have the drain plug
open, and that X ft/sec of water can flow out.

All things being equal, we have equilibrium, true, TartRod?

If we increase the faucet flow, what happens? Why,
eventually, the water overflows the tub. Right?

Now, let us assign meaningful labels to the bathtub.

We shall name the faucet to be the Federal Reserve,
specifically, the rate at which money is being created.

We shall name the drain to be the creation of real goods
and services.

Obviously, if the rate of money creation exceeds rate of
creation of real goods and services that are REPRESENTED
by said money, eventually the tub will overflow, causing
great havoc in the bathroom.

What, you ask, is the role of the bathtub in all this?

It is but a simple symbol of the propensity of the rich
to hold dollars. At some point, it will be saturated.


If we were to find a way to create ADDITIONS to the bathtub
without spilling water... then, I ask you, might it be
possible to have mismatched water flows twixt faucet and

Of course, this could only last as long as additions might
be built. I think we could assume that the total amount
of bathtub space, at any one point in time, is finite.

Do you believe that this could explain the mysterious
markets of the past few years, TartRod?

Who Cares
(Tue Aug 12 1997 02:33)
Alas :(

Alas. Woe. My HeartPlod has fled. {sniff}

(Tue Aug 12 1997 02:34)
Oppotunistic @ Canada
Buss Hargrove, 53 year old, national trade union leader, is so stupid,
or is it in fact, more realistic to suggest, he has done such a
outstanding job of supporting a *Responsible* trade union movement.

He states: "We failed to recognize we were isolating ourselves --
from those less fortunate than the members of our union, who were
struggling like hell to suvive."

The unions actions, made the union look like:
.............. "Selfish Self-Interest Group................

Could anyone here, visualize, the future, if these opportunistic trade
union leaders were thrown out on their collective As.., and real
working stiffs, got control of the trade unions. Not these present
*Responsible* ( sell out ) types.

What price, could you imagine gold to be in that future. Most likely
the same price in Russia, eh! ( Deflation/Inflation )
Better to keep the opportunistic, *responsible* types ??????
Modern Artificial Control: We will never know !
Bay Street - Wall Street- Central Banks, will make sure it never happens.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 02:34)
Bears prevail
Chart on "Investor Sentiment":

*While you are there you may want to enter their "Guess the Dow" Contest.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 02:38)
Say pardner Wad, ya be talkin to one who seen the elephant. Those who seen the elephant, they don't scare so easy dude. Yesirree, thet elephant was with the circus and left town with the circus and so should ya pard, with the rest of the clowns. Otherwise, high noon, know what I mean?

Who Cares
(Tue Aug 12 1997 02:42)
Investor Sentiment

I've seen this "Investor Sentiment" indicator before.

I don't buy it. I believe Peter Eliades has a much
more interesting and relevant measurement going.

If, indeed, we had so many bears - why are they still
the market? Because they have disassociated themselves
from their TRUE beliefs, pretending that if they think
themselves to be bearish, they will ward away Evil, and
so may profit handsomely from the continuing bull market.

Who Cares
(Tue Aug 12 1997 02:44)

Oh, come on, RoebesBiearre. The true art of it is that the
Man may ponder and puzzle, and yet not be sure.

Take off that black hat. My six-gun is... the envy of gunrunner. : )

(Tue Aug 12 1997 02:54)
Intersesting bathtub experiment, but what happens to the rubber ducky? Also, your last post about sentiment. Turning that around and applying it to say gold bulls...a most unfortunate example !; ) Now if you will excuse me, I've got to polish my Colts and make sure I have an ample supply of Wadcutters. One or two should do 8- ) )

(Tue Aug 12 1997 02:59)
Et tu Brut?

Who Cares
(Tue Aug 12 1997 03:03)
Wrong Analogy vis a vis Gold Bulls / DOW Bears

Your analogy is flawed, WoeBare. The bulls feign bearishness
on their own turf, so as to profit from it.

The gold bulls based their views upon a market EXTERNAL to
their beliefs. If the gold bulls were to feign bearishness
about gold, I might agree.

The rubber ducky is reference independent. He sense nothing
of the drain, faucet, changes in rates of flow, or the knobby cud
chewer, as long as the bathtub expands at the required rate.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 03:10)
WW: "From each according to his ability, to each according to his need" sounds great in theory. But it ignores human nature. It just doesn't work as proven after 70 years in Russia. What we have in the U.S. is far from perfect, but it is as close as most countries have gotten. Adapt to it and survive, or fight it and pay the price. My philosophy has always been get as much education as possible from whatever source, work as hard as you can, when the rough spots happen ( and they do for all of us ) adapt as fast as possible, and live the Golden Rule and the Ten Commandments to the best of my ability. So far at age 71 I can say it has worked fairly well. I am far from rich but I am eating regularly ( which I did not do for about 5 years during the depression ) and my conscience is clear, and I am enjoying my "retirement".

(Tue Aug 12 1997 03:14)
Who Cares, for the sentiment, I misinterpreted your meaning as in the bulls were deluding themselves...ah well.. I understand the rubber ducky perfectly: ) Good night and God Speed all the golden cowboys and cowgirls out there....Who Cares, you are now in charge of Dodge!

Who Cares
(Tue Aug 12 1997 03:18)

Heh heh. All information is contextual. SmartWad is woefully
lacking in function overloading. : )

(Tue Aug 12 1997 03:25)
Canadian Dollar @ Canada
Canadian Dollar Takes a Summer Dive.

A Game of chicken between the Bank of Canada, and currency trading desk
-30 month low.-

Strad Master
(Tue Aug 12 1997 03:29)
Thanks for the input
REIFY, MIKE SHELLER,D.A.,ROEBEAR, HIWATT, & MOONEY: ( Hope I haven't missed anyonw ) Big thanks for your input about selling my Strad. So far the tally leans heavily toward selling but I go back and forth. Reify, Mike, and Mooney - you express my FEELINGS exactly. The violin is not merely an art object to be looked at and admired. If that's all it were, I'd unload it in a flash. No, it has also been my daily companion for many years. I practice on it and it has helped me to sing to audiences all around the world. D.A. ( and others who have graciously e-mailed me ) - you express my THINKING perfectly and you're entirely right that the price for more family time is, in the long run, a small one. As a sidebar I must relate an interesting story since you mentioned Sotheby's. Recently I had and EXACT copy of my Strad made. It is quite remarakble in that it looks virtually identical and was made by a pair of master luthiers in Ann Arbor, Michigan who specialize in exquisite copies. Soundwise, it is a fine instrument as well but still hasn't the magic tone of the Strad. Anyway, just last week I took my Strad to the Sotheby's auction house here in town because their rare instrument expert was in town. I wanted his evaluation of what it might fetch at auction. I also brought along the copy which I figured would be intereting for him to see. I gave the Strad to the expert and his assistant was in the room so I handed the copy to him with the offhand comment "can you tell which is which?" I thought it was something of a rhetorical question but suddenly I realized that neither of them had ANY idea which was which. They studied them and examined them this way and that. Then they called in the fine woods ( antique furniture ) expert who also looked and looked. After about 10 minutes the wood expert finally guessed that the copy was the Strad. ( WRONG! ) The violin expert kept looking and finally pulled out a loupe to examine the purfling in close-up detail. ( The purfling is a very thin inlay of two strips of ebony wood with one of poplar in the middle all the way around the edge of the top and back of the violin to keep it from splitting. ) He explained that Strad, before a certain date used poplar that had very few grains in it whereas later in his career he used a more grainy variety. Well, it turns out that didn't tell him a thing either, since the copy had the right kind of grainy poplar, too! They were both completely mystified and kept saying "This is amazing! Those guys shouldn't do this kind of thing. It is really dangerous!" Finally, after another 10 minutes or so, he decided on the Strad as the real one but still with great trepidation. When I told him he was right, I could tell he was relieved to have chosen correctly as his credibility was really on the line, but still I was taken aback by their confusion. As he pointed out, "if the real one weren't there to compare against, it would never have occurred to me that it was a copy!" Pretty amazing, eh? Another fifty years or so and the copy may even start to sound as rich as the original. It already has many of the same tonal characteristics but nevertheless is still a baby. The bottom line is that I could sell the original and still have a sort of approximation to live with forever. I'd like to think that it would be possible to sell the Strad and then make the million or so left over after paying off the mortgage turn into 15 or 20 mil and tben buy back another fine instrument. With my investing luck, though, that scenario is probably not in the stars. ( Mike, I should send you my birthday info. Maybe you can figure out what I'm doing wrong! ) By the way - Hiwatt - it sounds like your cousin works for Bein and Fushi in Chicago. ( ? ) The have the "Stradivari Society" that does what you say about lending instruments out. If so, your cousin has probably seen my Strad already as it has been in their shop on occasion and they have photos on file.
Again, many thanks to all of you for taking the time to weigh in on this subject. It means a lot to me. I'll keep you informed. Any other comments are still welcome as well.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 04:33)
San Diego
WW, Earl, Oldman, Kitco right wing:

Oldman: Welcome back. Earl and the Kitco right wing:
For those of you who don't understand WW, here's another Teamster fan to fan the flames. The Teamsters are a no-good, corrupt, organized crime infested excuse for a union. But I'm all for 'em because of the mood they inspire in the US of Amerika. Amerika is asleep dreaming of stock market riches, watching television, and drugging the underclass into oblivion. These are the good old days where labor is still cheap, doesn't complain and will willingly be abused in the name of profits. The good old days are about to end. Big corporations are rotting inside with horrible morale and desperate workers, like WW says, but the stench is obscured by the big profits and the siren lure of stock incentives and 401K plans. As soon as the Wall Street dike collapses, many of the big companies will see the last of the loyal, hardworking and highly skilled labor flee in search of a better life at a small company. Many of these small companies will be more humanistic and acknowledge that human beings need to be treated as something slightly better than auto salvage. Meanwhile, the fat multinationals will be hit by strikes as the rank and file finally recognize that the ghosts of Walter Reuther, John L. Lewis and Sam Gompers still crouch in the ether, waiting to dismantle the US corporate house of cards. Washington will take the side of the fat cats and jobs will leave the US for the 3rd world at a stunning rate. There will be bloodshed. Rebellion will take to the streets, involving the unemployed as they sense the excitment of the day. The result will be the Goldbugs' long hoped for catastrophe. The US will splinter ( it is held together only by the assset bubble ) , but the multinationals will not suffer for long. They will hire their own armies and take their own turf. Eventually, islands of enlightened souls will control some geography and provide the skilled workers for the corporate regions which will control the low skilled industries and maintain martial law to keep them in line. Armed clashes and terrorism will fill the streets, but the enlightened ones will need one last instrument of trade in addition to their skills and intellect. What might that be? Hint-it won't be green and it won't be paper.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 04:56)

Re: Selling your Strad.

My only advice is to sell it when your ability to play the market and invest equals your ability to play the violin.

You are the owner of one of the greatest masterpieces of human craftsmanship in mans history.

Its value to you is far greater than any financial value.

It gives you an unique position in your chosen field.

It is a part of your whole musical identity.

The promotional value for a man in your field, owning a Strad must be immense.

There are "things" that no price can be set that equals the value that is spiritualy inherent in such a masterpiece of craftmanship.

Keep it, love it, exalt in its perfection.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 05:05)
@the scene
Strad -- Sell the copy you had made for the price a a real one! For all 'intentional' purposes, its the real thing apparently. Have a few more of them made while you're at it. Seems some craftsmen still do survive! Keep them employed.

Nick @Aussie
(Tue Aug 12 1997 05:34)
Don't Worry Be HAPPY
Sounds almost euphoric

(Tue Aug 12 1997 05:43)
@the scene
Once again, and as usual, Bill has put together a very fine Op-Ed at IMHO, Definitely necessary reading for all who frequent this site and are also chasing the answers to inflation and deflation!

(Tue Aug 12 1997 05:52)
Ply'ng the Okees fer gator'skins

Sur hope y'all a making money wit'dat gold thingy. Down here in the Okee we ply the wet lands fer'gator'skins.
We make our moonshine an love t'eet the catfish.
Der'gaters been eeting all da'catfish so wit emergency help fron y'all we intra'duced the HEP-CATS, but now those dang'gaters et dem'criters all up.
We jus heared y'all have what yer call SMARTWADS, y'all think our'gaters will like those criters, or are dey'filled wit wads of shit? Don't want our gater's sicking on us.
Darn gaters a'gone back to eeting our catfish an we's a going hungry.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 05:56)
WW: Regarding that no-good capital worship -- 1 ) What is the reason you try to make money? 2 ) Isn't that a prejudiced view of the need to earned and make money? Equally prejudiced as the statement that all lawyers are bad? Or all politicians are bad? 3 ) Who are you to be the judge of other peoples actions and intentions? You assume an elitist role -- as anyone else does who becomes a self-assigned judge of people.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 06:13)
@the scene
Puetz -- I wonder who would 'help' the poor if no one worked! I'm certain that it would not be the unions, government, or anyone else! WWs arguments become more and more non-sensensible as a greater and greater portion of income goes to pay the non-working; the problem thus compounding. This problem then leads to the fate of less and less capital formation as the risk-reward ratio turns/becomes more and more negative. Governmental policies are ALWAYS at fault when this happens.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 06:20)
WHO CARES: Yours at 2:12. I guess I would go back and look at the world after the Gold Standard Act of 1900 and up to March, 1933. During that time currency was freely exchangable for gold ( although James Grant has remarked that the bankers often tried to talk you out of it when you tried it ) . During that time there was only enough gold to cover the yellow back notes in circulation. Your passbook entry is credit money, same as now. There was never enough gold to cover credit dollars, nor should there be. During that period, as now, you decide on interest over safety. You can't have both. A true gold standard only limits the amount of currency that is printed. Credit dollars can still be created by the banks. They are not backed by gold and never were. They are just balance sheet entries.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 06:21)
In the midst of all this non-gold Kitco messages, another gold fakeout is happening... How often will those occur? For how long? --- may be forever because when the market crashes, rotates ( to your applauses ) , this creates create good buying opportunities ( at least these days, mucho better returns on investments! ) . The more volatility, the more money is made... in non-gold equities.
Gold had a cardiac arrest in 1997. Contrary to physicians who help arrested patients, the situation is different with gold. Here we have governments and big players pressing down on gold. Gold is asystolic. The longer it remains so, the more difficult it will be to revive. Just my HO.
Good luck all

(Tue Aug 12 1997 07:08)

Could someone post an address where I could find the stocks comprising the XAU and the HUI? Thanks.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 12 1997 07:13)
recoiling in horror at an unwelcome visitor
STRAD: Agree with Eldorado and ACW both. Keep the real Strad, sell the phony as real, make more copies, sell them, and then join Mr Guzman in Costa Rica. They have GREAT cigars down there. GREEN THUMB: The correlation between gold and cannabis prices has not been lost over the years by this astrologer. Perhaps we can create some new Kitco indexes. We can add Sex to all the Drugs and Violins. EARL: Your recent postings bursting with majesty. Go Baby! Re VONNEGUT: He should only have written that address. HIS writing is uniformly dull. That address was witty and truly insightful. What is he getting so upset about? The net's the net. Love it or leave it.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 12 1997 07:16)
@Strad w seriousness
STRAD: Seriously, ACW makes an extremely important point about the promotional value of a talented professional violinist WITH a Stradivarius. There may be more money in that combination than anything you'll pull out of the markets with the bucks. Sit down with imaginative management and brainstorm on this. Marketing, Maestro, marketing.

Bear poster
(Tue Aug 12 1997 07:19)
Tuesday August 12 6:29 AM EDT

Mongolia gold output up 58 pct in Jan-July

ULAN BATOR, Aug 12 ( Reuter ) - Mongolia's gold output in the first seven months of this year jumped 58 percent to 3,786.2 kg from
2,394.2 kg in the same period last year, the central bank said on Tuesday.

The Bank of Mongolia received 1,629 kg of gold in July alone, up from 981 kg in the same month last year, it said.

The central bank has said gold output this year could exceed the planned 6.5 tonnes, and possibly reach eight tonnes.

Mongolia has said it aims to expand gold production to between 12 and 14 tonnes by 2000.

Mongolia produced 5.2 tonnes of gold in 1996, up from 4.5 tonnes in 1995.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 07:19)
Joe: Here is the XAU. Someone else will have to help with the HUI

(Tue Aug 12 1997 07:20)
Joke of the morn
I've liked the action in gold and silver the last couple of days. It looks like a range has been established. Hopefully it will break out on the top side of the range. I took a beating in soybeans yesterday. I was afraid of that when I saw rain on Ted's weather sattelite site for Minnesota. Well here's my palty offering for the morning.

This man was stranded on a desert island for three years by himself
with nothing to eat but the coconuts that fell out of the trees and
the fish he caught with his hands. One day out of the blue, a beautiful
woman washed up on the beach wearing nothing but a wetsuit.

"Wow!" he exclaimed, "Three years by myself and YOU wash up. This is

The woman says, "Three years by yourself, huh? I'll bet you could use
a drink." And with that, unzipped a pocket over her left shoulder and
pulled out a flask of Crown Royal.

He downed the whole thing and said, "My God, after three years alone,
I believe that was the best drink I've ever had!"

The woman says, "Well I'll bet you could sure use a smoke then." and
proceeds to unzip the pocket over her right shoulder, taking out a
pack of Camels.

He smokes every one then shouts, "Wow! This this is the luckiest day
of my life!"

She thinks about things for a moment, then starts unzipping her top,
looks at him and says, "Three years by yourself, you must be pretty
bored. Wanna play around?"

He looks at her with a big smile and exclaims, "If you've got a set of
golf clubs in there, I'm gonna kiss you!"

(Tue Aug 12 1997 07:33)
Korea readies for the worst.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 07:40)
World organizations to lend Thailand $16 billion

LONDON, 08/12/97 - A financial package of up to $16 billion is being arranged by international
organizations and various countries to help Thailand reestablish its international reserves. The
announcement was made formally in Tokyo and counts on the participation of Malaysia and
Singapore ( each one provided $ 1 billion ) , despite the fact that the currency of these countries
continued to be subject of attack by international speculators. The Malaysian ringit fell to its lowest
level in the last 42 months, at 2.74 per dollar. The ringit has lost 10% of its value to the dollar in the
past month. There is, however, a political motivation in helping out Thailand. The presence of
Malaysia and Singapore in the program to help Thailand is expected to reverse the speculation
about the downward movement of the currencies of the Southeast Asian countries. ( Gazeta
Mercantil ) ( SB )

(Tue Aug 12 1997 07:46)
Gold mining threatens Venezuelan ecosystem.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 07:48)
news from reuters
to all,
for refreshment:

(Tue Aug 12 1997 07:48)
THE RED BARON (Part - 3)
Gold Loans by numerous CBs is ludicrous & INSANE. Hapless Gold Mining Firms sold forward years of production. A substantial price rise will show the errors of BOTH their ways:

(Tue Aug 12 1997 07:50)
Bank of Nova Scotia seeks to enter India gold trade.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 07:53)
Korean peace talks hit snag. This one will be well done.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 07:55)
United States a non-participant in Thailand bailout.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 07:55)
SIROCCO: You apparently do not approve of what you call "non-gold Kitco messages". Investing in gold or anything else does involve and understanding of what makes markets and current events and human nature certainly are involved in that. I agree with you some of what appears here is a little far from even that but Bart and Kitco seem to tolerate a great deal in the name of "free speech" and I applaud them for that. Just IMHO.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 07:59)
Indian bullion dealers raided by tax officials.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 08:03)
Stradmaster- Kindly send me your Email

(Tue Aug 12 1997 08:05)
Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL, Part - V (11 August 1997)
JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK & HARD SPOT: First, FRB Report warned in Sept 1995 when DOW was 4700, then Greenspan alerted all with DOW about 6000! Now the DOW topped 8300!

(Tue Aug 12 1997 08:07)
Use this
WW EARL MOONEY ET ALL: The UPS strike is not about bettering the conditions of the workers,as are most all strikes it is about union power. The union refuses to let the members vote on the company proposals for fear that the members would approve and that would leave the union without control of the pension fund. Do any of you not rember what the teamsters union does with the member pension funds that it controls?

(Tue Aug 12 1997 08:11)
Argentina and Chile ready mining treaty.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 08:28)
@ Store Clerk!!!
Bart, who is minding the store while the little ones are at play? Give em a kick up the Kyber Pass and get em back to minding the market..Gold ..that is.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 08:33)
@HUI Index
Joe @ 7:08 -- Try this for th HUI info that you're looking for;

You will need Adobe Acrobat to view it. You can download Adobe Acrobat for free. Follow the instructions at the Amex web site.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 08:35)
@DFW Airport
Earl, Roebear, You are lowering yourselves and losing respect by your continuing dialogue with this new low life intruder that has crawled into this site.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 08:37)
The devil was not in the "gold window". The devil was in
the overvalued dollar." Tlaga walks us through dollars declining purchasing power & role of gold from 1920-1973:

(Tue Aug 12 1997 08:48)
@ uppercrust
Its top secret. So we're not telling

(Tue Aug 12 1997 08:52)
excuse me
That @ was Upper Krust

(Tue Aug 12 1997 08:56)
The devil was not in the "gold window". The devil was in the overvalued dollar." Tlaga walks us through dollars declining purchasing power & role of gold from 1920-1973:

(Tue Aug 12 1997 09:00)

Donald, Panda- Thanks el mucho!

(Tue Aug 12 1997 09:04)
Earl @ 00:24 - NO Apology necessary! It twern't that bad! I was just having fun comparing your humourous aside to those often made the deadly duo.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 09:22)
What is the significance of the gold closings in 1970 found ( for example ) at

I accept your comment that gold was "undervalued." What I do not understand and would like to is, Aren't the London closings representative of free market activity? Couldn't I, as an investor, have purchased 1000 ounces of gold for $35,000 in 1970, somehow ( albeit through a third party non-US citizen ) ?

(Tue Aug 12 1997 09:26)
I hope that Kitco loads faster when the Squelch Button is installed and
75% of the posts are squelched.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 09:46)
The glorious Dow
Stock market fanatics can claim that the Dow has gone up by a factor of 10 since 1970. After inflation, that's a factor of 2.3, an average annual return of 3.1% ( plus dividends ) , over a period that includes history's greatest bull. Really, not all that impressive. Statistics in dollars that do not consider the declining value of the dollar are misleading, aren't they?

If the Dow drops to 4000, we have a market that has kept pace with inflation, and no more, whose true return is limited to dividends. It is simply not true that the market will always provide healthy returns in the long term.

Not only that, nobody but nobody is 100% in equities all the time. This means that most market investors, because they are hedged, will get even smaller returns.

So here it is: If you are willing to take the risk that a major depression will take 95% of your assets away, you can get 4-5% over inflation in the long term, maybe, if the econonomy is healthy and we have history's longest bull market, and you are fortunate enough to retire and cash out before it ends.

It bothers me to see suppposedly knowledgeable people giving advice to invest in a "good mutual fund" to get 10% annual return over the long term. This ignores inflation, it ignores the risk, it ignores the reality of what has happened in the last 70 years, and it deceives people.

One more great big bust, and it may take a long time for the market to regain its credibility.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 09:49)
@Off the Escarpment
This goldbug really appreciates Kitco's 24-hour spot gold/silver/platinum/palladium charts, and glad they are back up and running at last this morning. Double bottom in on gold, let's get something going ( if not today, maybe tomorrow? ) .

Steve - Perth
(Tue Aug 12 1997 09:54)
Hedge Fund investors. My heart bleeds for them....
Pity somebody in Australia didn't ask our Govt why we are flushing
A$1.4 Billion down the toilet in Thailand!

Steve - Perth
(Tue Aug 12 1997 10:04)
MILHOUSE: Pauline Hansen's Maiden Speech in the Australian House of Representatives in Canberra.
She would not know what the word xenophobic meant. Nor cares.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 10:05)
wow .. what a night you had on Kitco
Wow, what a night you had on Kitco - full of food fights. Sorry guys,
I feel responsible as it was my post substituting "stock" for "gold"
which started it :- (
WW: government intervention and social engineering does not work! It
does not matter if its based on democratic or dictatorial principles.
There is no substitution for individual freedom, Been there, done that,
got that t-shirt. I grew up in Czech Republic when it was still a part
of the Warsaw Pact. The reason I left 20 year ago was that I could not
let my children grow up in that system with no hope for freedom.
I would rather be poor and hungry than be controlled by a bunch of
government bureaucrats and politicians.
When it comes to UPS, the only reason I support the strike is that
employee as an individual does not stand a chance and the union may
gives them a fighting chance.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 10:11)
STRAD MASTER - yes, my cousin, John, used to head the shop at Bein and Fushi. He now has his own shop, but works very closely with them, out of the same building. And as you probably guessed, he is a curator of the Stradivari society. Glad to know that he has had the opportunity to see your beautifull instrument. best regards.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 10:12)
2: I have been thinking more about your ratio work. Another factor in the price of gold which is hard to quantify is the anticipatory factor. In other words, my government screwed up in the past by a factor of X. Therefore I am willing to pay Y based upon my reading of the future for the country that I live in. I will be out for several hours today. Catch you later.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 10:13)
2- Did you include the effect of 'Dow manipulation' in your numbers? By that I mean the pratice of replacing dogs with winners in the Dow. If not, your numbers were tell an even bleaker story.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 10:19)
@the scene
Slip-sliddin' awaaaaaaaaaaay!

Steve - Perth
(Tue Aug 12 1997 10:27)
PANDA: Would you like to hypothesise on your previous article you posted?

(Tue Aug 12 1997 10:38)
More on N. Korea
Many links and stories at this url re the looming N. Korean famine. Millions in peril. Drought has followed flooding, ruining crops. No power. Many factories idle. Ought to warm WW's heart.

Steve - Perth
(Tue Aug 12 1997 10:39)
The working class fight back
Stephen Roaches' view has been mine also for some time now.
It is hard being a REAL bear in a bull market. Not a pretend bear to make you feel good, when you know you should get out.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 10:50)
Goldbug23: Good post at 7:55. You are right. Investing involves understanding the entire economic arena -- which includes politics, law, human nature, etc.

Who Cares
(Tue Aug 12 1997 10:51)
Donald Shocks Me

If gold's function is simply to facilitate transactions, then do
we care about it as a "store of value"? Isn't that all that we
use "currency" for? We all agree it is a poor store of value.

Ultimately, balance sheets are the problem. You're right, gold
didn't serve to represent all assets, but perhaps it serves to
represent some fraction of them, thereby limiting the total
"value" of all assets? Perhaps gold limited the rate at which
assets could be transferred between balance sheets?

I can't get it. I can't see it. I know that currency is only
the medium that allows the shift of assets. What happens when
a significant portion of the population run out assets?

Well, rate of circulation of money should drop, right? And it
did, during 91-94. The rate dropped, Feds printed more,
but did quantity really make up for turnover rate? By filling
the banks up, the Feds patched over the balance sheet problem.

They also patched in '94, at least, government around the world
did, by destroying $1.5 trillion of value in bonds. There, yes,
see, that's a balance sheet item. Governments destroyed the
value of the appreciating balance sheet, ergo, the deteriorating
balance sheets were propped up.

So. We can guess that what the Feds will do next is to try to
devalue existing balance sheets to keep the game going. I
personally don't believe currency matters. Gold. Gold. What
did gold *used* to do that related to balance sheets? Yes, there,
it PREVENTED governments from devaluing existing balance sheets,
at least RETARDED it because gold was held as some fraction of
total assets. You see it? That's why gold "causes" depressions.

It allows the winners to keep their winnings. It prevents
issuers of currency from destroying balance sheets. At least,
it provides the threat to prevent it. Now that everything is
totally relative, you can't stop the Feds from washing your
value away. So. We can guess what they will do next.

Something that destroys healthy balance sheets. Yup. Probably
inflation. Which augers well for gold, and return to a gold
standard. Yes, yes, you can use Russia as a model. After
several years, they're finally returning to a de facto gold

Steve - Perth
(Tue Aug 12 1997 11:04)
DONALD: Now the gold/dow ratio is down under 25, does that mean the
stock market is less dangerous, or just starting the slide down the hill?

(Tue Aug 12 1997 11:06)
Who Cares - Re your comment: We all agree it is a poor store of value.
I disagree. In 1967 Canada was celebrating its Centennial year. I bought some Gold coin at approx. $35. U.S. per ounze. Taken into account exchange rates then and now my gold is worth about 12 times as much to me. I believe that nearly everything that I could buy back then can still be purchased for less than 12 times the 1967 nominal price.

Who Cares
(Tue Aug 12 1997 11:20)
Mooney & context

We all agree that *currency* is a poor store of value. The
more I think about it, the more I like that explanation.

You can *not* protect your balance sheet anymore. Currently,
Gates is holding something like $4B in cash. I know why. He
knows the shake-out in the IS industry is coming. He could
run Microsoft for a SOLID YEAR, with zero income, if he had to.

But, he's taken some flack for holding so much cash. Because
it's being eroded away in value. So. Gold has two functions.
As currency, to facilitate transactions. Although, you know,
it's probably not important. We probably could just do the
paper thing for transactions.

Nope, nope, the real problem is balance sheets. In fact, think
about the DOW. What is "stock", but a symbolic representation
of a company's existing balance sheet, and the ability to add
to it in the future? So, we can see that great portion of the
population believes that certain, WINNING balance sheets are
going to grow at mythical proportions, because they're
extrapolating the rate of growth in the near past. If balance
sheets are crumbling, at least, if the LOSING balance sheets
are crumbling at an accelerating rate... See?

As more and more of the "representation" of wealth is consolidated
into fewer and fewer hands, i.e. oligopolies, then it only makes
sense that the rate at which they can FORCE the remaining wealth
into their portfolios increase. A black hole. Thus, this rate
is extrapolated into the future, even though assets are FINITE.

Interesting. I never really tried to break gold out as two
distinct functions. It's definitely the store of value function
that's important. It prevents "other forces" from destroying
balance sheets.

Interesting. I'll think about it some more.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 11:23)
IT WAS ME !!!!!
PANDA.....It was me...It was late and I didn't proof before posting....Had been talking with Jose...Let me think of some more excuses....

(Tue Aug 12 1997 11:25)
No generalizations and rhetoric here...
"Uneducated people have a Right to be upset and demand their share".

"Companies profits = Alcohol & Drug Abuse for workers"

WW - these two quotes alone are enough for me to realize that you have lost touch with reality and you do need to go to Cuba...and stay there.

An uneducated person has the right to get an education...Nothing More.

Company profits = Company Profits...Nothing More.

Alcohol and Drug Abuse is a whole different ball of wax...and should not be entered into this type of discussion...they do not apply...or would you please back up your Nonsense with facts and statistics...or...go to Cuba...or smoke a joint and drink some scotch and relax...

Whoops! I'm sorry, scotch is a drink reserved for the poor, misguided conservatives...I meant drink a six-pack of Bud...

Earl & Mooney - Thank you for the well written posts last night...

Hepcat - I knew it was only a matter of time before you would come back to us...don't you have any finals to take or some internship to do?

Who Cares - your cracking me up with your bad self...yuk, yuk...

All - drink my OJ...


ww -i'm still confused as to what the uneducated should get a share of? shouldn't they just get an education??? Whew! You believe that crap don't you...OK...enough...I'm crying already...

(Tue Aug 12 1997 11:26)
2 - You certainly could have purchased gold at approximately $35 in 1967-1970. The point is that the U.S. government had for years been pegging gold at that dollar/gold ratio, supposedly allowing other countries to exchange any U.S. dollars for gold at that set price. Therefore the world-wide price did not fluctuate very much from that mark. When it became apparent that this valuation was keeping gold artificially low, pressure ensued as countries ( such as France ) tried to convert as many U.S. dollars as they could to gold. This mini run on the dollar forced the U.S. to end its gold price fixing policy. ( If they had not done so it was becoming apparent that the U.S. would have had to sell its hoard to maintain the fixed price. )
Some here have been wondering if, in the last couple of years, a new way of 'fixing' the price has not been surreptitiously instituted.

Night Hawk
(Tue Aug 12 1997 11:28)
Bill Clinton aint dumb. He knows what happened to JFK and RFK when they got crossways with the Teamsters.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 11:31)
"We all agree that *currency* is a poor store of value."
We agree.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 11:37)
Can anyone provide insights into why D. McAlvany, Wall Street Underground ( N.G. ) advise against holding a small % or no gold stocks in creating a defensive portfolio against the imminent monetary/market collapse? Can we start a debate over the rationale behind their advise. No doubt gold equities will also slide, in the short term, in a major market correction ( presumably Homestake did the same in 1929 then rose +500% through to 1935 ) , however those with gold reserves should be the haven of first choice of those clawing for safety in a slide. My intuition tells me to possibly avoid companies who have hedged their production, these companies will ( as the Red Baron writes ) be forced into a tough spot if gold climbs beyond $420...but how many companies have not hedged or have not benefited from gold loans from CBs and other merchant banking interests? Any thoughts or advise?

(Tue Aug 12 1997 11:38)
I guess that isn't fair. I gave an example the first time so here's the second. I also decided to save some beautiful $5.00 Canadian Bills as they were coming out with new versions and I ( foolishly ) hoped that by storing away bout 20 of them they would make me a good return in the future. Wrong. Twenty years later I spent them as nice crispy five dollar bills and bought my hundred dollars worth of goods. :- )
Bernatz - All my talk of France lately and you don't even put in an appearance. Qu'est-que tu malade?

Who Cares
(Tue Aug 12 1997 11:38)

Greenspan MUST know. He's deliberately destroying existing
balance sheets to keep the game going. Who wants to bet?

He's *got* to know. But. If he's deliberately destroyed
the sheets in order to buy time to bring the Deficit to
a halt, that would make sense. What happens afterwards?

If total borrowing slows below the rate of creation for goods
and services, he wins. Equilibrium is kept, and balance
sheets slowly repair themselves.

If the Federal Deficit truly has shrunk, then the overall
system probably *could* be kept in equilibrium. Except that
consumers are now borrowing too much. At least, they were.

So. Greenspan keeps the game alive as long as it takes
government to get clear and save its good name. He even
warns the population, those who will listen.

Can he raise rates? Does he just let bubble blow on its own?

Perhaps that's why he kept it going? Allow government to
make a strategic withdrawal? Dang it, I'm sick of this.

I *know* Greenspan is working from a playbook. I have no
doubts about this. He has plenty of history to draw upon.
Now, he's taken us into an area where history never went.

He's flying blind. As near as I can tell, he's still lost
the game, simply from the way the stock market has played
out now. He needs rates to go down one more time. YUP,
yup, THAT is it. He needs to burn bonds one more time, and
freeze the stock market for a few years.

These damn guys. I wish had their computer models.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 11:47)
MikeS - You have probably been inundated with requests for a reading...sorry about my request...

It's just that my girlfriend ( life mate to be ) has been to two palm readings of late ( she thinks they are fun ) and they Both told her of big $ in September ( the 16th was one date ) . And I have been mentioned in these readings with regards to the big-bucks.

I just thought if something jumped out at you...

And I'm serious about barter/trades ( of course I Never do this because the IRS does not look to kindly upon this because they collect nothing ) ;- ) . I am partners in a few optical you wear contacts/computer lenses? Just a thought...

Away... to grind the lenses for the astigmats...and even the Myopic WW's of the world...


(Tue Aug 12 1997 11:52)
It was I !!
Nailz - when you proofread you must correct the grammatical mistakes bad mother would be dissapointed... my English class


nailz-i'm just joking you know...

(Tue Aug 12 1997 11:57)
Uris, thanks for the kindly advice, but sometimes a goldbugs gotta do what a goldbugs gotta do. No sign of the varmint so this fight is over!
Sorry Scirroco, musta been a ricochet 'cause gold took a hit, eh? Back to business.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 12:00)
MikeS...the legendary Lung Island man...Quick hide Pepi!
I was reading an article in the newspaper about an older lady in Los Angeles who heard screams in her backyard and ran out to witness her long-hair Chihuahua being Swallowed by an 'escaped' Boa...Yikes...what a site :- ( Needless to say she was rather torn up as it was her Only companion since the death of her husband.

Get Pepi some BIG fangs or something...or send him for walks 'packing' a 357 or something... i would do that anyway in you neck of the woods.


(Tue Aug 12 1997 12:07)
USofA @ Productivity ????
U.S. productivity growth slows in second quarter.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 12:10)
Soooo !

Strad Master
(Tue Aug 12 1997 12:16)
REIFY: My E-mail is above. ELDO: Selling the copy as the original has already been suggested. Unfortunately that's illegal, not to mention immoral and, sadly, I'm one of those pathetic, benighted individuals who won't even accept copied software 'cause that's stealing. Oh well...Good idea, though. MIKE SHELLER and ACW: I've not found it to be the case that the mere possession of such an instrument is a significant publicity factor. Most Strads today are owned by wealthy collectors who are amateur players. God forbid they should all have performing careers based on their owning a Strad. For instance, one of the best collections of great violins I'm aware of is in the private closet of the guy who has cornered the world market on human-hair wigs. He lives in Hong Kong. Anyway, the whole idea of selling the Strad is to facilitate the comfort and safety of my family with whom I love to spend time. I've consciously curtailed much of my performing so as to be able to stay at home and help raise the kids. Travelling around for 6 to 8 months of the year is not what I want to be doing. Thanks for the input.

By the way, Mike, do you do astrologial charts/interpretations for individuals or mostly for investment?

(Tue Aug 12 1997 12:24)
statistics-U.S. Labor
According to the US Labor Statistic report, part-timers comprise over 20million of the work force. Their average weekly salary/wage is $147.00 or $7644.00 per annum, assuming that they work for the whole year.
Absurd. No wonder their 'employment' stats look so good. The shift of reward between labor and capital is unsustainable and will lead to a recession/depression in a few years. 'The trend is their friend'.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 12:29)

The reason that buying commodities from a systematic standpoint is better than shorting them is as follows. Strong up moves in commodities generally begin from low price and relatively low volatility regimes. Strong down moves in commodities generally begin from high price, high volatility regimes. When there is low volatility one can make a larger risk adjusted bet than when there is high volatility. This means that at the begining of big upmoves it is statistically easier to place a large bet than at the begining of big down moves. For an example of this behavior take a look at any longterm commodity chart. You will see most of the action confined to the bottom of the chart with infrequent spikey trips up to the top. To be a successful short seller one must be good at recognizing the tops. Since the tops are fleeting and prices are flying around at high speed, you have to be enormously accurate or you get stopped out, or carried out. I have found no good systematic methods for accurately judging commodity tops. If you know of any, I'd be very interested. In addition to the structure of the market, commodity prices do rise over time, and the futures markets appear to be inefficient with regards to this. Over the long term there is no sense in fighting this ever creeping currency devaluation.

Who Cares
(Tue Aug 12 1997 12:40)
U.S. Labor Statistics

What? You mean that you believe the labor statistics to be
"flawed"? Shocking. Regardless of popular belief, the U.S.
is functioning less and less as a free market, and more and
more as an oligopoly. Oligopolies are the disease, depressions
are the cure. : )

Although. The more I think about Greenspan, the more inclined
I am towards inflation. Which is easier to control, a burn-off
of existing paper assets through inflation, or through a
cascading collapse of debt defaults? The only real problem
is that the Feds are having to refinance too damn much, too
rapidly, now. They need to convert those t-bills and notes
"inflation-indexed" bills. : ) Gad, that's right. Didn't
they do notes instead of bonds? : )

Scenario - Feds print money, inflation advances. Bonds go up.
But, as long as they go up at a slower rate than inflation,
Feds keep system intact. What they *really* need is for a
large percentage of existing paper assets to appreciate at
a much lower rate than the real economy, just like WWII.

They print money. Tax revenues flow in faster than interest
payments, at least for a year or two. They "record" surpluses,
retire short-term debt. Yup. I could see it. I could
see a short-term, inflationary spike. But, it would probably
crash the market.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 12:45)
Re: Markus, gold stocks
Markus: As I see it the case against holding gold stocks rests primarily on the fact that the gold stocks are publicly registered paper. As paper they can be reneged, confiscated or in some manner easily stolen. Public registered paper ( all data bases are public if you know the right people ) would seem to be the worst case as the gov can have them transferred directly to the gov when such becomes the law of the land. In short they are very easy to steal as opposed to say a few coins say at the bottom of some lake. And make no mistake the gov will be in a rare stealing mood when it is pressed for booty. Forget about the rule of law and such. FDR when he was required to take a large share of our liberty dropped a single type written ( no copy machines then ) 670 or so page single spaced tome of a bill in our "law makers" lap and demanded a vote in two hours. No one could even read the bill. I think he got all but a few votes. They were scared to death. As they will be once again. For the good of the country it may be neccessary to rape and kill most of us. So stealing a few shares of evil gold paper will be welcommed by most.

Thus I have not owned any gold shares for quite some time. However given the gold price action over the last few years. Given that I myself am almost totally convinced that what we are seeing is the largest forced flow of gold related assets from weak to strong hands perhaps in history. Given that the big boys seem to be most interested in the gold stocks. I think a fix might be in on the gold stocks. A deal may have been made between the big boys obtaining the gold and the powers running this country ( many of the same people ) not to steal the gold shares ( at least not THEIR gold shares ) when extraordinary ( as opposed to the common day to day stealing which is a function of our gov ) stealing becomes necessary.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 12:46)
The Zone
Earl, Roebear ( 02:29 ) : Some VERY savvy alternative health people that I am aware of have also changed their lives with the zone ( diet ) . These people are also aware of every diet on the planet. Sounds like quite a success. Eat lots, have oodles of energy and drop the pounds. What I have heard from them is that 'Mastering the Zone' is a less technical book and is easier to use. Kitcoites may want both books being analytical as well as pratical in nature.

The zone might be more tricky to do if you are a vegetarian.

One comment these people have made is that the sucess of this diet may depend on your blood type. There is a school of thought that says you should structure your diet according to your blood type. Apparently type O should have the best results.

I am seriously considering adopting this diet myself. With a lot of these sort of things you pretty well much have to try it yourself and see if it works or not. However, the sucess rate and the benefits seem to make any effort well worth while.

Thanks for your 02:29 comments, Roebear! They confirms what I have been hearing about the zone and give me more incentive to try this out myself!

(Tue Aug 12 1997 12:52)
Strad Master: What an interesting choice!! One thought that came to me would be to lock up your strad for a few months and use the copy for day to day practices and performances. See how you feel.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 13:11)
The fear is here.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 13:13)
@ I Wonder:
Well the "irrational exhurberance" speech did nothing to take the excess out of the market. Now, maybe, a convinient arriving UPS strike might do the job. And now Billie Boy is standing on the side. I wonder if he has standing orders for Allen, Rubin and Company? : )

(Tue Aug 12 1997 13:16)
Lease Rates climbing-

Implied gold lease rates rose also Tuesday, suggesting hedge funds and producers may be borrowing again to fund short
positions and hedges, with gold back near the top of its range of the past month.

One month gold lease rates rose to around $1.93 pct by the time of the LIBOR fix Tuesday in London, from 1.85 pct Monday,
while one year rates rose to 2.20 pct from 2.09 pct.

Who Cares
(Tue Aug 12 1997 13:17)
Donald & Credit Dollars

Donald said, "Credit dollars could be created by banks".

Okay, I'll buy that. But, at least in the late 1800s,
weren't these "credit dollars" freely convertible into

If so, the banks at that time were constrainted on both
sides - create too much money, too fast, and you risked
a run on real assets. Create too little, and you can't
compete against other banks, your profit margin is less.

Today's governments are currently only constrained on
one side - create too little, and your economy caves in
as everyone else races to devalue. : )

The more I think about it, the more I can see how "freely
convertible" gold acted as a restraint on balance sheet
madness. Please provide a counter-argument.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 13:23)
Who Cares and all, I find your balance sheet idea intriguing. Computer models indeed, I feel like the rubber duck having a fun swim without any frame of reference: ) Perhaps if this thread were followed and enlarged upon by all the brainpower we have here we may see a landmark or two through the media fog. No doubt we may have to unholster our egos and put them in safe keeping. I really do not care if the DOW goes to 20,000 or 200, if gold goes to $175 or $17,500. These measures of "balance sheets" will go wither they will no matter what I think or do. I'm certainly no Soros. But what I do care about is having a clue, a reference point. This is why I am here.
When gold took a swan dive last month we were beseiged with bears, now that it has shown some strength where are they? For those of you ( like Selby ) who have been bearish and are still with us fine, I admire that and just wish the point could have more convincing to me. I'm half bear myself and no, I am not blaming you I am blaming ME. I do not want to fight about it. My whole point is it is time to put who was right/wrong and egos aside and get to business of understanding the markets. Is there a new paradigm about? Something besides the DOW is up! Gloom/Doom doesn't matter any more than Blue Sky hysteria. What matters is survival. Survival is going to require an edge. To get that edge and survive we are going to have to roll up our sleeves and be open to new suggestions/ideas.
We have a lot of pieces of the grand puzzle, dow/gold ratio, currency devaluations, balance sheets, trader info from the floors, too much to mention really. But all I am seeing is the pieces not the picture. I refuse to be a stopped clock; I will admit I have been bullish and WRONG for the past six months. I am now concerned only with restoring my edge and chances of survival. Forgive this rambling post because my contribution will be to clear Bart's bandwidth, I will not post for awhile unless it is extremely relevant. This is the best contribution I could think of right now to give: ) Meanwhile please keep putting that puzzle together, I believe the time to see that picture and get that edge is very short.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 13:36)
United We *Fall* @ Divided We *Stand*
Byron @ 13:13: Right on Byron - The UPS Strike is made - By Orders.

Why, is the teamster leadership, refusing to have a vote. Why, at this
late date, the part time issue is important, many workers have
been working part time for many years. Without, benefits of any type.

The little people, are harming the little mom and pop business, such is
seen, each and every night, on the nightly news. Great story line, the
big bad union, is destroying small business, and also refusing to have a
democratic vote among the membership. It plays well, and it is being
accepted by all. Of course the main issue is the pension plan, let the
teamsters ( they steal pension money right ) run the plan, or, the company.

Who Cares
(Tue Aug 12 1997 13:37)
RoeBear Unbalanced

I haven't really consider gold vis a vis balance sheets. It's
pretty interesting. Clearly, gold has several different
distinct functions. I can see how that might apply.

But, to the overall proposal - I believe that the "marketplace"
is far too complex to model with one grand scheme, at least for
human beings. I think the best you can hope for is several
different models, with sets of rules for when each applicable.

I played around modelling the system with voltages and current
a few years ago. If you make several assumptions, you can
get some interesting results. Things like currency circulation
slowing down, that's predictable under a voltage model. Also,
eventually, the only way you can sustain current/currency flow
is by destruction of nodes that have built up voltage ( good
balance sheets ) or by ever-increasing applications of either
voltage or current ( not sustainable ) . I absolutely believe that
holders of paper assets will discover they have nothing, simply
because they are holding the promises of people who OWN nothing
anymore. The question is how that comes about:

through inflation, i.e. a gradual erosion of *all* surviving
balance sheets, or deflation, the complete default of poorly
managed balance sheets? The long-term answer should be
deflation, in order to preserve moral values, incentives, etc.

I suspect the easy, short-term answer is inflation.

Strad Master
(Tue Aug 12 1997 13:38)
Decisions, decisions!
GFD: That's pretty much what I do now. The copy needs to be played in a lot to have it start to sound better and better. Violins that are not played lose their sound. This is especially important for a new instrument. I took the copy with me on this most recent European concert trip and it got great reviews everywhere. The reason for having the copy made in the first place was to have a spare that looks and feels like the real one. That way switching back and forth is of no concern. The original economic reason was to avoid having to pay out about $6000 every year to insure it. If I fly to Europe with the copy and it gets damaged - it's not as big a problem as with the real item. Sort of like in the jewelry business, where people with magnificent jewels have beautiful copies made to wear around rather than risk a theft of the real thing. Of course, it's not comparable since with jewels it's easy to copy them - they don't also have to sound great. Anyway, since the copy came out so well, the idea hit that perhaps it was merely an indulgence to keep the real article lying around just for recordings and local concerts. Especially when selling the real thing could facilitate virtual retirement for us all ( assuming a reasonable rate of return on the profit. ) Hence my conundrum. It's a much more tricky problem than knowing when to unload a cache of gold or silver, isn't it?

Who Cares
(Tue Aug 12 1997 13:42)
RoeBear & Puetz

Ask Puetz. He's done some analysis based on balance sheets,
his recent article on financial versus economic, and I have
a column of his from 94 floating around here somewhere which
addressed the balance sheet of the U.S. in general.

Gad, it would stupid not to buy gold at this point. How
much more of the total money flow can stocks suck up? I
just can't imagine it. Do we need 250 million people in
on the blowoff?

(Tue Aug 12 1997 13:45)
WHO CARES: Credit dollars have never been convertible into gold unless there was a gold clause in the contract. In 1933 the government called in all the gold coins and invalidated all gold clause contracts. When you take a cash dollar into a bank and tell them to enter it into your passbook you are converting your cash dollar to a credit dollar. You enter into a loan agreement with the bank. They have borrowed your cash dollar and will pay you interest. When you decide you want it back it may or may not be available. Goldback cash dollars were agreements between the noteholder and the U.S. Treasury. The bank had nothing to do with it except that its bank charter authorized it to act on behalf of the U.S. Treasury when you wanted to exchange the note for gold.

Today, cash dollars and credit dollars have the appearance of being interchangeable; just as they appeared during the Gold Standard Era. In the event of a banking crisis, then as now, the difference will become woefully apparent.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 13:46)
I promise , I'll go to work after this...
DA - long.only is a great strategy and I can not 'knock the bottom out of it'. I agree and Many others will also. Thanks for another enlightening post.

Now, on to my two cents...

You used my magic word 'volatility' four times in your post. This KEY to futures trading, as you WELL know, is often overlooked by many. And it is the key to success! Trading futures long.only is a safe, sane, profitable choice, however, one will miss out when the markets go sideways ( which they do 60% of the time ) . And markets go down a great deal also. When volatility is high and the market starts a retreat options are a good choice. Writing calls, buying puts, using spreads ( puts and calls ) etc. One can STUDY ( do your homework always ) how to 'exploit' volatility and afford themselves the opportunity to explore ALL markets ( over40 ) , ALL the time and not have to wait on markets that can be otherwise making them money.

Now, the risk factor... This strategy can expose yourself ( lift your skirt ) to greater monetary loss...but what the heck...INVESTMENT=GAMBLING anyway. And you gotta love a very short skirt!

I am only a cheerleader for these guys... They have helped me a great deal in my successful as well as my not so successful adventures.

The book ( said before ) : The New Option Secret by David L. Caplan ... good stuff.

D.A. I do want to emphasize that imho long.only is a great way to go. Happy Trading SageManD.A.! work
EB ;-$$

(Tue Aug 12 1997 13:49)
Steve - Perth Tue Aug 12 1997 10:27

The government got better than expected demand for the coin? Or, for the conspiratorial minded, the price of platinum got too high. :- ) )

I find it interesting that the platinum has to be returned within thirty days of demand. So, either they are expecting the price to fall, in the long term; Or, as usual, the government has made another bad investment.

What if the price of platinum goes up? :-0

(Tue Aug 12 1997 13:50)
nailz -- I thought so! :- )

(Tue Aug 12 1997 13:50)
Gold Stocks; Balance Sheets etc.
BW and Roebear et. al...I believe we're on to something BIG with comments re: my question of the safety of gold stocks, balance sheets and understanding the grand mosaic. BW your comments about gold stocks being seizable paper are correct; the problem for Canadian investors ( unlike U.S. investors ) is there is no option to purchase gold coin/bullion within your retirement savings we are forced, by law, to be exposed to the upcoming market calamity...we have few alternatives other than temporarily parking your money in t-bill money market funds.

Roebear: I believe the mosaic is being carefullly orchestrated; the casino is rigged by powers ( the big boys: merchant bankers and others ) to actually see the demise of the markets and the U.S. dollar so as to create a chaos that no one can escape ( despite a safe portfolio of gold and gold stocks ) ...and in the vacumn that will ensue usher in a single global economic and monetary system ( cashless society ) . Societies globally will plead for political and economic leadership under the conditions of economic/monetary collapse with their savings evaporated, their debts high and outstanding, their personal "economies" compromised and ruined. Out of this chaotic state will emerge a logical solution: a single world economic/political/monetary system or order under the roof a single agency ( the UN is the foundation of that structure ) ...a single medium of exchange ( cashless ) society ..


(Tue Aug 12 1997 13:57)
Back to fundamentals
Roebear - I posted this chart before, and didn't get any comments, so perhaps it isn't as useful as I thought. However, it sounds like you are trying to get your feet back on the ground, as I am. So you might be interested in this.

I don't claim it is a revelation, but with the exception of the spike in platinum to 500, the precious metals prices have been contained in well defined channels, with well defined trends since about February this year. I don't like the trends, but to ignore them is very dangerous as I have found out, and it seems you have to. Of course this is history, and it is much more important to have a good crystal ball into the future. But until something significant changes, this is the direction things are heading today.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 14:01)
@ Control:
6pak: The motto of Washington, D.C. "If we are going to have control, let's have 110% control."

I understand that UPS's business represents 7% of the DAILY Gross Domestic Product. And it is spread out over all areas of the economy and country. What a great way to take the excess exhuberance out of the economy and be able to blame the resulting "correction in the markets on someone else.

IMHO of course. What do I know? : )

(Tue Aug 12 1997 14:04)
MARKUS: Can a Canadian buy Central Fund of Canada for a retirement account? That fund is 75% silver bullion and 25% gold bullion. It trades as CEF on the AMEX here in the states.

Who Cares
(Tue Aug 12 1997 14:11)
Donald - Nononono

No, no, no, I know that you couldn't convert them after 1933.

I want to know about the late 1800s. 1865 to 1900. Or 1933,
if you prefer.

Scenario - the macro environment, combined with "respect for
the law" has allowed the government to subtly undermine balance
sheets. A change in the macro environment, combined with wide-
spread distrust and disrespect for the law would do what? : )

FDR got away with it for 60 years BECAUSE of other factors.

My point - my point is, can you disproof that gold functions
as a protector for balance sheets in general. After all, that
is the basis, the essence, of Greenspan's 1966 speech. The
difference would be in anticipation and percentage, I guess.

The thing that bothers me about 1929, is that, at some point,
people came to their senses and shut the thing down. Just
like Japan did in '90. But this time - assume the masses
carry their argument right to the edge where it begins falling
apart due to its inherent flaws. I mean, that *could* take
awhile. I suspect that the South Seas were similar. They
didn't race right up to the wall at 60 mph, and then slam on
the brakes while 100 feet away. Nope, they plowed RIGHT into
that wall without so much as leaving a strip of rubber, because
they KNEW the wall didn't exist.

Do you get my point here? Gold functions as poison pill, a factor
of probability. Was there a *chance* that credit dollars issued
by the private banks during 1880s *could* have been converted into
gold, i.e. a run on the bank's physical assets? This would be

Dang it, I have to go. I hate my job.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 14:15)
Of course the trends in platinum and palladium are fine. : )

Who Cares
(Tue Aug 12 1997 14:18)
Donald - macro environment

Quickly - changes in the macro environment. Government possess
the ability to monopolize information ( thesis of my master's
project ) . Over time, government falls into trap of laziness,
inefficiencies, deceit.

Information Age arrives, destroying information monopolies
and those that thrive upon them.

Ergo - government is on autopilot, its attitudes and actions
continue on the implied use of monopolization. Meanwhile,
the clues are everywhere for the general population. Government
loses credibility.

Ergo, change in macro-environment that allows the government
to burn balance sheets.

I'm out of here.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 14:20)
I forgot...
For Daily volatility rankings

gone away now

(Tue Aug 12 1997 14:21)
@ Making My Own Breaks:
Coffee break time. Keep your eyes on that closing COMEX. Never can tell when they will surprise ya.

alfred e. newman
(Tue Aug 12 1997 14:22)
What,me worry@com

The fight for control of every economic system 'since ancient israel' has always vacillated between the 'debtors' and the 'creditors'. in its simplest form the debtor attempts to lessen his burden while the creditor attempts to protect his capital.

the western world has continously since the 1930's been overtly controlled, policies set, taxes levied, bribes paid, elections won or lost based upon the singular premise that the 'debtor' controlled the game. look around, read some history, every economic decison of any importance in virtually all the western nations for decades now has been to alleviate the burden on the 'debtor' at the explicit expense of the creditor. even the 1980-1997 time period when the appearance of policy change occurred to give the 'creditor' some relief was merely cosmetic so as to continue the game a while longer, still, under 'debtor' control. clearly gold protects creditors which is why it has been bad mouthed for so long. it also offers an escape route to protect at least some capital from destruction as the forces of debtor/creditor vie for economic control.

we have arrived at a point in time where the accumulated debt burden is now so large on those deepest in debt that creditors rather than accept higher rates of interest are slowly demanding shorter average maturity levels for the debt they will continue to hold. only a fool would believe the US governments decision to borrow in bulk from the short end rather than the long end of the scale as 'a desire to save on interest cost'. this is ridiculous to the point of laughter. no one but an idiot borrows to buy a house in the 2-5 year note market to save a point on the interest rate. ergo, some other factor is at work and that fact is the declining credit worthiness of all sovereign debtors but especially the united states. as the maturity levels for the bulk of us debt continue to drop further in the years just ahead more and more preposterous explanations will be offered. there is now no escape for the us economy. if the real economy grows faster than the rate of growth of the accumulated debt inflationary pressures will build and force up rates which will kill the state in short order. if we continue on this death by a thousand cuts the interest costs of the debt even at 5-6% while the economy grows at 2-3% will consume the domestic economy whole.

there is however one factor everyone knows about, most don't think about or deny it has any relevance to the current economic situation. the wild card which may well topple the whole game irrespective of whatever any central bank does or does not do is the year 2000 computer date problem.

even if 50% of all business's and banks manage to become compliant in time what happens when they try to interface with the other 50% that haven't. Ok lets be really optimistic and say 90% become compliant. what happens to compliant banks who interface and import corrupted data from non compliant banks?

of much greater importance are the tax collecting agencies all the western governments. we all know how overwhelmed the irs is with their recently admitted 4 billion dollar 11 year upgrade which has failed utterly. do any of you out really think they will become year 2000 compliant in time?
i did not think so! i will bet that the us congress and the irs goes to the postcard size tax form in 1999 to try and save their ass from meltdown in 2000.

the monetary system of the entire western world is predicated on the fact that sovereign debt which backs all money can be serviced. the primary means of maintaining that fiction are the tax collecting agencies of the various governments. what happens when 2000 rolls around and folks begin to realize that state computers are spitting out gibberish, that tax refunds expected come late or not at all, that if you are self employed and do not pay or do not file your chances of being discovered fall to zero. is not that what holds the whole system together.... fear of state computers trailing you and your money? what happens when they stop working properly? how long will it take for the system to implode? years, months weeks?

what about social security if you are retired, or medicare... not just in the US but all over the west!

could this be the real reason for the phenomenal run up in the markets?

smart money wants out while they still can get out because they know that in less than 2 years ( thinks start to degrade in summer of 1999 ) the game is likely to end with a whimper as the global satellite postioning system rolls back 1,024 weeks on august 22, 1999 followed by who knows what in the months preceding new year day 2000. after jan 1 2000 who knows what will happen! once the public realizes that maybe, just maybe not all banks will become compliant in time and maybe just maybe their bank desposits might not be entirely safe after jan 1 2000
the mother of all bank runs will begin. who knows where it might start, france, greece, america, canada. it does not matter where, once it gets going how long before central banks every where start dropping cash out of airplanes. what happens if the international wire transfer system
malfuntions because of bad data?is not confidence the only thing that holds the system together anyway? how much confidence will the public have if the computers malfunction, in the grocery store when they use their charge card, in the ATM machine, when the telephone stops working properly, when airline flights are cancelled by the thousands becasue air traffic computers can not keep track of everything properly. how about the utility companies and the power grid which in california last year had an enomous blackout because of MINOR problem in IDAHO.

whats a government bond worth if tax collections malfunctioin in a big way, if telephones malfunction in a small way, if the international wire transfer system malfunctions and if air travel is severely curtailed for weeks or months?

we all view government projects and government skill levels with a wan smile... yet most folks either think this year 2000 stuff is a nonstarter or somehow all those government workers who night club jokes are told about will somehow solve a software problem SO complex that successfull multinational corporations are quietly shuddering at their own dillemma. does anyone out there really think that governments and business run their operations from apples or ibm pc's?

this year 2000 problem is the hollywood b disaster movie where the meteor is coming in 6 months to hit the earth only this time it isn't make believe and everyone knows the date!

if this problem is 1/10 as bad as some very skilled computer experts think it is, what happens to the western world and its highly complex division of labor?

(Tue Aug 12 1997 14:38)
WhoCares: Different models agreed, I am attempting to get nodes and LM's, LAN back on line, keep thinking!
Markus: Yes, your cashless one world scenario is a definite possibility. The EMU is a forerunner of same and a successful experiment with it will result in your scenario having a high probability of occurring within 20 years without a currency collapse, sooner with. My basis for believing this is convenience wins in a global economy, it increases power for one world government and it is highly probable in Biblical prophecy. How's that for Apocalyptic. One world currency will usher in one world government to some degree as loss of national currency=loss of fiscal power=loss of national sovereignty.
It also is congruent with the erosion of freedoms we have been experiencing here in US. Confiscation provisions of drug enforcement laws enthusiastically enforced against US citizens without drug involvement. The 10k transaction reporting one example, your property confiscated and then you have to prove yourself innocent to ( maybe ) get it back? What Bill of Rights? I personally know of a case involving a decent citizen of long aquaintance, certainly no drug dealer, who had millions confiscated because he preferred to keep much of same at home.
They used suspicion of drug money as an excuse and I know there was none!
This case was won in the Supreme Court but at great financial cost. Sorry, I do not mean to be paranoid but the fact that these things are occurring in this country, in my backyard almost ( gee, wish it was! ) and there is no public outrage shows me just another scenario that the sheep are being led to the slaughter. Survival, survival, we will all need an edge. And I am trying to shut up!!

(Tue Aug 12 1997 14:40)
Why all this handwringing over debt? Some people worry all the time like old women. The US only needs to sell some bonds and then put the proceeds into the stock market. The gov't would multiply their money quickly and could pay off the bonds with a nice profit. Why am I the only one of thinks up these things?


(Tue Aug 12 1997 14:54)
paycheck to paycheck

Mooney: ( 11:31 ) Do you think that someone living from paycheck to paycheck gives a hoot about -store of value?
It's better that they had a decent wage; then they might consider store of value.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 14:54)
GFD ( 12:46 ) : I appreciate your comments, as well as those from Roebear. I deplore the reduction in energy levels ( as a function of time ) more than anything else. .... Which comes first; the loss of energy, followed by an increase in weight or is it the other way around??? The body and mind are a closed loop system and defy analysis.

y2k hype
(Tue Aug 12 1997 15:00)
alfred e. newman
Your creditor vs debtor analysis was great but the y2k myths are way off. I borrowed the following from another news group:

The sequence is something like the following:

1. All Cobol programs will fail.
2. All software will fail.
3. All computer hardware will fail.
4. All imbedded processors will fail ( cars, vcrs, etc )
5. All semiconductors will fail, I heard a radio talk show where listeners were told to
buy old tube type radios at yard sales because transistor radios will not play after year
2000. Also should buy older cars or convert new cars back to older ignition systems
with no solid state components.
6. Tapes will still work in a tube type player but no cd's will work.
7. Gas furnances will work but electric heat pumps will not. But you must use propane
because natural gas will not be available.

Remember that the y2k hype companies and and IT departments have a vested interest in making money and getting bigger budgets. As a programmer with experience in many languages spanning decades most of hype is WRONG. The problems are not that hard to fix and they only applies to old COBOL programs that need to be upgraded anyhow.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 15:15)
Earl, the loss of energy comes from staring at computer monitors, which suck your brains out through your eyeballs, hence my own hapless state!; ) Seriously, guide your mouse to and buy Enter the Zone and Mastering the Zone by Barry Sears! Make an investment in your health for our sake we need you in good shape on kitco! I guarantee you the silver dimes ( 4 ) under my glass desktop at the kitco party if you do, hopefully that will cover the cost of the books by then. Seriously, you have a profit locked in already.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 15:22)
@ Fixed computer
Luckily the local computer store promptly fixed my computer and now I can resume my cyber-life ( ? ) ....but who the hell gave me a virus...hack..hack..cough......EVERYONE is a suspect!...Mooney,was it YOU???...

Fidelity Update
(Tue Aug 12 1997 15:23)
as of NOON EDT:

FSAGX= $20.72 up .05
FDPMX= $13.94 up .07

News 4 U
(Tue Aug 12 1997 15:29)
LONDON, Aug 12 ( Reuter ) - The gold market hovered below the key $330.00 per ounce mark on Tuesday but dipped lower after New York opened and the dollar consolidated after Friday's sell-off.

Gold's move seemed to confirm dealers' opinion that failure to break into the $330s soon could signal another move to the downside.

Gold prices had rallied last Friday in response to a sharp decline in U.S. stock and bond markets.

But Wall Street's better performance on Monday diminished the chances that gold could summon up enough support to push higher for now, dealers said.

Gold was fixed at $326.20 per ounce down from $327.60 at the Tuesday morning fix and $327.00 on Monday afternoon.

The New York Comex December gold futures contract was down $2.50 at $330.00 as investors there were lured into taking advantage of the reviving dollar and stock markets.

U.S. economic data due later this week could be a key for the gold price.

"Any signs that inflation is picking up will give the market further support...In any case there is no point getting too positive unless there is a convincing break of resistance at $330," brokers GNI said in a report.

Lease rates were a few points higher at 1.93 percent for a month indicating the likely re-opening of short positions and borrowing for producer forward selling, dealers said.

Average daily turnover volumes released today by the London Bullion Market Association for July averaged 37 million ounces daily through the LBMA's clearing members, the highest figure since February.

Although the average price was significantly lower than in June at 324.10 per ounce against June's $340.76, the value of the transactions was $12 billion daily, the highest since march.

Silver prices turned lower with gold to $4.41/$4.43, a cent down on Monday's close and platinum and palladium were also weaker following the end of a dispute at South Africa's Implala refinery.

Platinum was indicated at $433.00/$437.00, down $11.00 and palladium was quoted at $226.50/$229.50, down $5.10.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 15:35)
@ Up, Up and Away:
JoJo: I take it you are with the group that believes in "eternal return ( s ) ". Nietzsche pun intended. That the stock market will continue to rise to the higher reaches. Has Japan yet recovered from its 1990 illusion ( or should I say delusion ) . : )

(Tue Aug 12 1997 15:40)
Donald, I never heard of CEF before but presumably Canadians could purchase units on AMEX ( ironically Canadians would be limited to 20% foreign content in their retirement savings plans, even though this is Canadian ) ...this would be a novel you have more info. on CEF or are there Canadians on Kitco who know of how to purchase in the Canadian market? If available, this would be a best kept secret. Any Canadians on Kitco who could advise on the laws governing holding of gold/silver bullion within your RRSP?

(Tue Aug 12 1997 15:42)
Hi JIN!...Thanks for the e-mail....My computer was broken but am now back in business and will be getting back to you...Dow down 96...

(Tue Aug 12 1997 15:42)
Roebear, Earl: I can attest to the workability of the Zone Diet.

I have been on the program 5 months and have lost a 110 pounds.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 15:44)
@ Like That Pattern:
Dow down 93. XAU And HUI firming up a tad. Like the recent pattern of strenght in the gold stocks when the bonds and dow go south. Hope it becomes a long term trend. : )

(Tue Aug 12 1997 15:45)
My view of where FSAGX is headed:

(Tue Aug 12 1997 15:47)
WHO CARES: It has never been possible to DEMAND that CREDIT dollars be converted to gold dollars from 1792 to 1933 or ever. Anyone can make credit dollars. Everytime you use your credit card YOU create credit dollars. Those credit dollars are your contribution to the inflation that you and everyone else is complaining about. There are 75? Trillion credit dollars. There are only 479 Billion cash dollars. First come, first served.

In my perfect monetary world only the CASH dollars would be exchangeable into gold dollars. There should be no risk in cash dollars. There should only be risk for those who choose to hold credit dollars. In 1933 the government, for the first time in the history of the republic, introduced risk into cash dollars.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 15:53)
Gold rising
It appears that the 'dipsters' are a 'little uncertain' and nervous. Gold sprung over $330 ( Dec ) and holding, long term rates up to 6.66%. ( Oh No! )
Inflation rising in Europe ( recent gasoline prices due to high US $, has consumers raging ) . Currency problems just beginning....
Gold 'shorts' sweating hard! We are almost ready for another run...stay tuned.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 16:09)
@ Disappearing Act:
Dow down 100. Ah, where did 8000 go? Maybe they intent to jump over 8000 and go directly to 10000. : )

(Tue Aug 12 1997 16:17)
@The Public Library
Marcus: Regards CEF. Last time I heard, Ian McIvity ( ? ) was quite involved with CEF. He lives, I believe, in Toronto, Canada. Has a well known every 3 weeks newsletter called "Deliberations". Publisher/printer of newsletter is in Phoenix, Arizona ( I said confidently ) : )

(Tue Aug 12 1997 16:48)
Not posting is tough
Roebear: Frankly, I think you should continue to explore the full range of options of how best to survive this unsustainable market. As much as I would like to discount the notion of new world order conspiracy theories and Biblical prophecy, the evidence seems to mount every day that confirms that something is indeed amiss. The pieces are coming together like some master plan, perhaps the players are even unwittingly playing their role in a plan, which on the surface seems good and practical ( one world government=one world medium of exchange ) , but in the end is a tower of Babel that is predestined to collapse ( again, as in ancient times? ) . I rarely contribute to the Kitco discussion, but it strikes me that we too may simply be playing a part in this plan; our daily babble and discussions may simply add to the noise on Internet; a noise which, those big boys in control, have an interest in sustaining. The noise and confusion about the market is something that may in fact be desirable such that a "saviour" after a market demise will be sought, an elixir for the poison that will be everywhere. To that end, the more I'm involved in these analyses and debate ( ironically I've only been a gold bug and stock investor since January 1997 ) the more I'm convinced that we are too close and too rapped up in the noise and confusion to see clearly and with peaceful hearts about what is really important. Seems to me the struggle in surviving is keeping a clear and humble mind, and not get caught up in the cacophony. The more I analyse the more I sense that there really is no easy survival method against the tidle wave of economic destruction that may fact maybe all our obsessions with money, wealth and gold are in fact for nought?!

(Tue Aug 12 1997 16:55)
Are we "looking a 'gift-horse', in the mouth" ? Divergences abound. For example: the xau, when compared to G's London P.M. fix, in early July, and again in early Aug., points to the tremendous bullish pressure brewing, in the precious metals markets. When Gold dropped below $320 in early July, the Xau traded at a low of 85.79; and when gold dropped below $320 in early August, the xau could only reach down to 95.
Currently the xau is at 101.79, and 'brimming/itching/composing itself' ...just before it's first "sprint"! Strong money moves, at bull-market turns, in the metals markets: into gold-mining shares, well before it gobbles up the gold futures, and bullion. This can be confirmed by a comparison chart of gold prices vs any important gold mining issues/stocks' share prices, over the last two decades plus. Stocks such as HM, or ASA, or NEM, PDG, etc. ..... at every important bull-market turn-around, or bottom, for gold ( & silver ) investments, these mining shares have built their 'accumulation-base' prior to gold & silver doing so; and they have moved higher, consistently, even in the face of sometimes final new lows, for either gold or silver bullion...which these "lead-scout" mining shares, thus, do not their diverging almost every important trading bottom/market turn, for precious metals. Numerous other divergences are just too numerous to almost mention; but best not be ignored: OBV patterns on the mining shares will make almost too obvious the 'run-a-way' bull-market pressure, that is building. Platinum & Paladium are 'lead scouts' for G & S, as well -- set aside for a moment "Russia's problems". Wasn't it Shakespeare who said: "On such a full sea are we now afloat; we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures."

(Tue Aug 12 1997 17:03)
@other metals
Quotes strategic metals;

(Tue Aug 12 1997 17:03)
DD Ratios
John Disney - Any new news re: the Durban Deep merger? According to the ratios you posted last, Buffles and Blyvoor are trading at 20% and 30% discounts respectively to where they should be today. At least according to the closing prices on Yahoo.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 17:12)
Alfred E. Newman,
I agree with you. During the last few months I have made posts related to y2k. To my dismay, it seems that very few take the 2yk into account when making their investment decisions. Funny, if there were rumors about war in Argentina all potential investors would consider that in their decisions. It is not so with 2yk. This potential problem is not taken very seriously, or so it seems.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 17:14)
TED -- You're back! So it was a virus!

(Tue Aug 12 1997 17:19)
Ted, welcome back. Your brief departure nearly sunk the DOW. So it was a virus eh. I'll bet old Money Bags put the virus and the hex on you. It looks like the paper market got out of bed this morning and then jumped out the window.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 17:19)
Dow/Gold Ratio 24.31, still on the downside of a spike.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 17:20)
Living Wage @ Boston
Boston to Business:"Pay Fair Wages or get out of town."

Isaac Newton
(Tue Aug 12 1997 17:27)
Call me Izzie
Thinkest thou that thine Dow hast broken 3000-4000-5000-6000-7000-8000 with joyful and wondrous dispatch? Then watchest thou how it doth pierce these noble bounds upon its return. Doth the nimble phrase "32ft/sec/sec" mean anything to thine irrationally exuberant self?

(Tue Aug 12 1997 17:30)
6pak -- I'll have you know that we have the finest socialists around town that money can buy! :- )


(Tue Aug 12 1997 17:31)
Donald: Your mention of Central Fund of Canada has got me investigating the options as a Canadian investor. Ironically, very few folks have heard of this Calgary address company. Question: do you recommend such a holding in your portfolio for safety especially as a safer alternative to gold stocks that would presumably be vulnerable in a market tidal wave drop? What are the pros and cons of investing in a company that holds bullion? Do you have a right to a share of the physical stuff or just a promisory note entitling you to the dollar value of their holdings?

Thanks for the tip!

John Disney
(Tue Aug 12 1997 17:35)
For DJ
Disagree extent of your discounts. As I understand
deal, existing D-Deep share holders will get half a new option
ddeep option maturing in 2002 or therabouts. Existing
blyvoor - option holders trade their existing options
4:1 for these new options. The blyvoors are .65 each
so the market sees the DDeep options as 4*.65 = 2.6R.
Half of this is 1.3 - so if ddeep is 10.5 then the
option free price would be 10.5 - 1.3 = 9.2 . This
sets buffels at 9.2 *1.1 = 10.1 and it trades about 9.5.
On blyvy we'd get 9.2/4 = 2.3 so the ADR should be
3 * 2.3/4.65 = $1.5 - I think Blyvy ADR are out of line
with the Joberg price right now at $1.25 - At 1.25$ they
are a pretty good arbitrage as they break even at 1.5. I
think the actual discount is 5 - 10 % and narrowing.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 17:36)
Re: Markus, danger
Markus: I believe you have identified our major risk in the coming economic depression. The man on the white horse will promise much to the prostrate masses but they will have to give him a few things also.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 17:37)
to y2k hype
y2k hype: sorry to disappoint you. You better brush up you experience
with many languages. While "everything will fail" is not true, neither
is your statement "The problems are not that hard to fix and they only
applies to old COBOL programs that need to be upgraded anyhow." You
obviously never worked on systems containing 40,000+ programs with 20+
million LOC written in multiple languages, systems wich require 7/24
up-time ( that is running 24 hours every day ) . Just finished assessment
of application written in Visual Basic, C, Oracle, PL/SQL which has more
Y2K problems than any old COBOL application.
Mind you that I work for a non-profit organization having no financial
interest to over hype the problem - just trying hard to fix it. Yup,
there will be plenty of Y2K problems.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 17:45)
Reuter - Retail Sales News commentary - a day in advance?
The economic news, which came in the form of a stronger than expected weekly report on the nation's retail sales, dealt a
severe blow to the already jittery bond market, which is bracing for a critical monthly sales report on Wednesday.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 17:54)
The biggest system I have worked on was 15 mil LOC. 24x7x365 ( less than 3 min per year of down time ) . The language was a Pascal variant with 0 y2k problems. None of the C++ systems the I have worked on recently have y2k problems. I will agree that the COBOL stuff I write in the 70's has issues but fixing them should not be that bad from what I remember of COBOL. With some PERL tools one should be able to parse and find problem areas. I don't see why the "C" system that your are working on should have a problem; short, int and long data types do not suffer from the PIC 99 2 digit problems of COBOL. Could you elaborate.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:01)
The DJIA dropped big-time after gold closed. It will be interesting to see how gold responds in over-night trading. Also, the S&P futures sold off another 2.50 points after the markets closed. In late-afternoon trading, the S&P futures are down an additional 1.05 points. At this point, the DJIA looks like it will open 30 points lower in the morning.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:01)

Just a short note gentlemen to let you know ( if you don't already know it ) that the poster on this site known as "DAVID" is collecting your address and sending out some crap about speaking to your local representative


Your Congressman, Rep. Nancy Pelosi ( D-CA-08 ) will be
heading home for the month of August. Now is a great time to let Rep.
Pelosi know that privacy on the Internet is important to you.
This alert brought to you by
The Voters Telecommunications Watch, the Center for Democracy and
the Electronic Frontier Foundation, EFF-Austin, Americans for Tax
and Wired Magazine

And all I did was send him a request to use David instead of Front...

What's a poor Canadian to do ?

Apparently it's all about the congress bill for encryption .... Talk about an invasion of MY privacy !

For what it's worth, his mail is now being forwarded to the garbage automatically. Talk about a squelch function!.


(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:07)
Central Fund of Canada
Donald Just enquired with Central Fund of Canada office in Calgary Alberta...they are a gold/silver bullion holding company which trades on AMEX as CEF and on TSE as CEF.A....current net asset value per share close today was $5.55....they hold bullion on behalf of the investor at a major Canadian bank in Toronto...typical investors are those that want gold as a hedge in the portfolio....might be of extreme interest for those who are looking for alternatives to gold mining equities for safety in Canadian RRSPs and alternative to t-bill money market funds...very conservative company.... Nagging concerns include: what assurance does an investor have in the safety of ones holdings? safe is the gold bullion held in a major Canadian bank when under existing legislation Bill C 134, gives Canadians banks the right to seize assets in their possession during financial crisis?

(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:13)
Currencies- Singapore
'The regional currencies fell down like a rock with
rotational play on the Singapore dollar sparking off
the regionwide weakness,'' said Alison Seng,
analyst with US research house Standard and
Poor's MMS.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:13)
Back in the office
Mooney - Thank you for your 11:26 post. I certainly agree that "artificial" government policies obscure what would be the market value of gold in the absence of those policies.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:21)
Singapore-Malasya-Indonesia markets fall sharply
The region's stock markets were rattled yesterday
as the currencies of Malaysia, Singapore and
Indonesia dropped sharply.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:22)
Commodity Tops
You said "I have found no good systematic methods for accurately judging commodity tops."

Can I assume from this that since top recognition is elusive, your systems scale out while the commodity is rising??


(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:24)
WW A man, much smarter than I, once said "The best thing I can do for the poor is to not be one of them." I have been following this advice for 10 - 12 hours per day since I was a teenager. You know what? It works! Perhaps some of the poor and downtroden which you so eagerly defend, should give it the same try. Another bit of advice which I found very useful, and could be very beneficial to many who may want to better themselves financially, is to cut the plug off of the TV set, go to the public library, and STUDY. That also works very well.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:24)
@the scene
Puetz -- So far, the Dec gold is being 'well recieved'; it being up .9 at 331.7 as I write this! Amazing what a little 'paper' problem can cause!

alfred e. newman
(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:27)
what, me
for those of you who posit the year 2000 problem is no biggie!
i ask these few questions though i could pose hundreds more.

why has the us navy created a web site specifically to inform everyone that the global satelllite positioning system will lose 1024 weeks on august 22,1999 and it NOT thier fault. that's right, they suggest anyone using the system to contact their vendor.

why did the social security admin. start fixing their computers in 1991 and have fixed less than 25% thus far.

why do respectable anal;ysts suggest this problem will cost in the hundreds of billions of dollars worldwide to fix if it no biggie?

why has the fed made contingency plans to maintain liquidity in the event of computer driven shutdowns to the banking system?

why is the irs scrambling like hell to fix their systems as fast as possible which we all know will never happen in time?

why has jp morgan put out a detailed analyst report saying "things are much worse than anyone expects"? i have a copy and will post it if enough people want to wade thru it.

for those of you who no biggie please offer something more tangible than your opinion.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:28)
EB....'Twas I who made the mistake...

(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:29)
El Nino - South Africa woes if it happens
The risks to South Africa's economy are even
greater - in the worst-case scenario, according to
SBC Warburg, the investment bank, maize
production could fall to 3,5-million tons, a drop of
50% on 1996/97 estimates. That translates into a
potential 0,8% decline in gross domestic product
( GDP ) for next year, says the bank. As demand
runs at about 6,5-million tons, the balance would
have to be imported.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:37)
I'm glad to see the "experts" are willing to go out on a limb about where gold will go in the near future....

``The bounce in gold recently looks like it has been mostly shortcovering, but there was also tremendous buying in the physical market below $325.00, so gold feels like it is priming itself for a big move, or at least more volatility,'' one New York bullion bank dealer said.

``There's been no central bank activity for some weeks and producers
have been both lifting hedges and putting them on, so we could see a
big range, as there's room on the upside but gold could easily test
last months low also,'' he said.

this is from :

What a waffle


(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:37)
Markus Your 16:48 was well said. We are on the same wavelength. If things are so great why are so many looking for safety in this Brave New World? Soloman said money was a defense, how to defend when it goes worthless? God, gold and guns. With all the information available isn't it amazing that truth is so rare and so little valued, like gold. This is why I like kitco so much, gold forces us to find what truth we can to understand what it is saying among all the cacophony. Anthrpomorphic but true. Markus you know the greater truth. BTW welcome to the group, BBML

(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:38)
I'm glad to see the "experts" are willing to go out on a limb about where gold will go in the near future....

``The bounce in gold recently looks like it has been mostly shortcovering, but there was also tremendous buying in the physical market below $325.00, so gold feels like it is priming itself for a big move, or at least more volatility,'' one New York bullion bank dealer said.

``There's been no central bank activity for some weeks and producers
have been both lifting hedges and putting them on, so we could see a
big range, as there's room on the upside but gold could easily test
last months low also,'' he said.

this is from :

What a waffle


(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:44)
I hate to sound ignorant, but here goes: Where do you get your Dec gold information after hours? Is there a web site? Thanks


(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:52)
to y2k hype (I appologize to the rest)
y2k hype: Dont want to bore to death Kitco folks with technical
details. In essence, it was not the language but the way it was
used/misused. Application front end was developed in VB, using a
lot of yy dates manipulated as character strings, integers, or numeric
constants. C language was used as a pass through to EDI and some driver
routines. Again, some manipulation using two digit years. It all
eventually ended in Oracle database using a combination of Oracle DATE
types or various dates defined as VAR CHAR or NUM data types. PL/SQL
code did a lot of wrong translation/validation which will return
incorrect results. There were thousands of custom developed date
routines, calendar routines, incorrect leap year calculations, many
duplicates, each of them different, a lot of in-line routines, cases
which considered dates only up year 1999, 01/01/01 dates used to indicate
missing values, etc.... Database already populated with incorrect dates.

The application is still in development but already looks like a
software patched over and over. It was not a language, just a VERY bad
design and programming. Go figure, some blame should go to a "hotshot
hacking programmers" and unmanaged software development. BTW, the
project already spent $100 mill, is way pass the deadline, and it was
suppose to replace and improve legacy applications which are not Y2K
compliant. BTW, we were using Perl to find bad spots, analyze them, and
trace the data flow was a different issue.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:55)
@the scene
MachF15 -- If safety in the paper markets is found to be wanting, then the money will travel into the physical markets. Watch the paper! Weakness there, as we have been seeing recently, is now beginning to show up in strengthening of the gold and silver markets. These two are still basing, without yet gaining the firmer hand, but with increasing defensive positioning of the paper participants now beginning, things are looking more positive. I also claim that the potential exists for new brief lows before the rocket ship blasts off. I do not claim that is engraved in stone by any account. I've been making money in this recent move, as I do in all of them, but I do see 'hesitation'. If Dec gold breaks current levels, we will see a move to the 336 area ( Dec ) . Let me re-itterate 'if'. A failure takes us down, maybe to new lows, and then we start all over again. Watch the paper. Gold WILL basically go in the opposite direction!

(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:55)
Profound Truths
Roebear: You hit a strong philosohpical nerve....thanks Brother...agreed...ironically since my 6 months as a gold bug I am led to believe that it is a study of the shiny stuff that provides us insights into the world, economics, and global politics that we may not otherwise have had before. I would agree that in the end it seems ludicrous that we are seeking safety where safety does not exist in this secular world...are we not also potentially benefiting from the demise of other investors who will loose their shirts? The truth is indeed difficult to discern...only the solitude of the wilderness without noise and confusion is where we can discern the truths ( and the truths do not include wealth, gold, money or markets...they are the stuff of being in touch with one's! ) . I too enjoy Kitco and hope that such forums provide a means of spreading a bit of the truth, as little which is revealed through the secular maschinations of the market. Indeed, you and I do I feel share a sense of the greater truth....are we also not doing ourselves a disservice by polluting our souls with the same noise of the market place with all the money changers? I would appreciate your email address to chat ( off-line ) more about philisophical points...I'm signing off for the night ( my email address is: )
Cheers! and Godspeed!

(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:57)
alfred e. newman (what, me
Alfred: GPS is not Y2K problem - different issue though, if you don't get it fixed, you better re-learn how to use sextan. I should know - I'am working on it 'cause I sail ;- )

Dirty Harry
(Tue Aug 12 1997 18:58)
Make my day Bubba

US productivity falling, actually its probably at/or has always been a negative value, with all the corporate shafting going on. Its a Scabs/Hacks world.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 19:04)
Ted - Good Buddy! How could you even think such a thing. Besides I've been so busy lately that I haven't even e-mailed you for weeks and weeks. Besides which ( reprise ) I'm lost with out my good buddy the human ticker-tape. Which reminds me do mention that I still miss FBI - When he was around you DEFINITELY did not need to buy a paper or watch any T.V.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 19:10)
Tort: 27 hours of down-time and I'm still sane....Panda: "Netscape was corrupted" was the verdict and now have an anti-virus program...We are in the midst of a beautiful sunset and the ocean is colored pink...

(Tue Aug 12 1997 19:13)
ACW ( @Zone ) : 110 in 5 months??? Jumpin' ( stuff ) ! I don't need to get rid of that much but 25 would be just about right, if I could keep it off. Thanks for the testimonial. ..... Whaddya get to eat? Nuts and twigs??? .... :- ) ) )

(Tue Aug 12 1997 19:13)
I appreiciate your insight to the "paper holds the key to gold". I will be more vigilant about the currency crisis unfolding before our eyes. However, my question was much more basic ( and obviously to simplistic ) . I meant WHERE ( as in which web sight ) do you find DEC gold prices after hours? However, your words rang true to me. Thanks again.


(Tue Aug 12 1997 19:15)
Hi Mooney!...from "the human ticker tape"...Missed the action today but it looks like gold closed well off its intra-day have never seen the ocean this calm and colorful....

(Tue Aug 12 1997 19:18)
Dec. Gold up .70

(Tue Aug 12 1997 19:21)
Hi Earl: I know what you can eat and it ain't fattening......

(Tue Aug 12 1997 19:46)
Dr. Randel Burns provides an overview of building a precious metals collection of various forms of bullion. He gives useful tips & caveats for serious collector. Interesting read:

Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 12 1997 19:48)
apres le din din
TED: Glad your 'puter better. EB: Funny you bring up the "Boa eats Chihuahua" story. We had a pet python ( before {Pepi ) which we raised from a...well..."pup" of 24 inches to a leviathan of 16 feet in 17 years. Talk about a commitment - we literally altered the house for the fellow. Son Hank bought the snake, and, as can be expected, found other interests in his teen years. Daddy ( yours truly ) raised that monster and was the official family snakehandler ( a lot like trading silver futures ) for 15 years. Alas, coily ( he wassa goood boy ) passed on to serpent heaven two Christmases ago. After a reasonable period of mourning, and celebration of pet-free life, the Missus, who was in love with the big coiler, proceeded to fall in love with the Pepster. Oh well. If it's not mopping up one kind of urine, it's mopping up another. RJ, where the hell are you?

(Tue Aug 12 1997 20:07)
A useful site
MachF15 - - The Bohl site has information updated every evening. My bookmark is to the options, but the underlying is noted for each expiration. It is

Knock off the "/history . . ." and you'll go to their homepage

Best Regards, Niner

(Tue Aug 12 1997 20:08)
An excellent site with predictions and more:

(Tue Aug 12 1997 20:08)
@Mike Sheller
Hi Mike! I'm glad tooooo....was startin to go through withdrawal...

(Tue Aug 12 1997 20:15)
The missing word for the stock market is awesome... which best
describes extraordinary upside action. It seems Public views market
profits as ENTITLEMENTS - Must RELOAD Digest page:

(Tue Aug 12 1997 20:36)
@ The Public Library
Prognosticator: Re: 18:24. .... At my duty station and have not owned a tv in more than 20 years, sir. : )

C.V. Compton Shaw
(Tue Aug 12 1997 20:38)
I am now short term bearish on the stock market, long term bullish on
the XAU and extremely short term bullish on the XAU.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 20:48)
@ ...appealing to the prurient interest

(Tue Aug 12 1997 20:49)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Only 4 Fidelity sectors UP today.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 20:51)
MARKUS: Re Canadian rule C-134. The bullion is equally divided and stored at two banks, one in Toronto, the other in Vancouver. The fund charter does not permit it to be loaned. As it is merely stored in the bank for a fee, not on deposit, does that change the status under C-134? In any event, were rule C-134 used against you I would prefer that they owe me gold and silver rather than paper. Another point. Should you invest, you should take possession of your certificate and not have it held in "street" name. Here in the states if your broker goes bust and you have shares held in street name it will be a real problem getting hold of your certificates. Its a messy world isn't it.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 20:54)
@..appealing to the prurient interest
Just wanted to see if you were paying attention...You know how kids
will brag about their fathers..Well..a group of elementary school kids were
bragging about their fathers' strength and exploits..One boy said, "My father's a cop and can bench press 200 lbs." Another boy chimed in
and said.."My father's a steel worker..he's got muscles on muscles."
Finally, a third boy spoke up.."My father can eat light bulbs.". ( dead silence ) ...The policeman's son said, "How do you know your father can eat lightbulbs." The little boy retorted, "Just the other night after he finished tucking me into bed..he went into his bedroom and said to my mother, "If you turn off the light, I'll eat IT!"

(Tue Aug 12 1997 21:04)
Markus, Donald I have owned CEF for four years, I use it as an alternative to owning physical gold. It is good solid company. Tell me more about this Bill C134??? Does it have a chance of becomming law?

(Tue Aug 12 1997 21:08)
Date: Tue Aug 12 1997 15:45
Westboy ( @fsagx ) :
My view of where FSAGX is headed: .......
Your FSAGX Chart looks different then mine.
Is your data corrected for payouts / dividends ??

(Tue Aug 12 1997 21:11)
Gold looking good financials looking bad Go Go! Any Conservatives in the food fightin mood over the Teamsters Strike. A Goldbug against the Teamsters is like a fly agin Honey!1 ( ifin he is smart ) !!

(Tue Aug 12 1997 21:12)
Inflation: Highest rate for two years


By Richard Adams, Economics staff

The rate of inflation leapt last month, as increases in the cost of food,
motoring and mortgages sent the annual increase in retail prices to its
highest for almost two years.

The official figures, published yesterday, also showed increases in the price
of houses and overseas holidays, which some economists say are evidence
of higher consumer spending spilling over into higher prices.

The Office for National Statistics ( ONS ) said its all-items index showed a
rise of 3.3 per cent in the year to July - its highest level since September
1995. The RPI rose 2.9 per cent in the year to June.

The headline figure was pushed up by increases in mortgage payments
since May, when the Bank of England, the UK central bank, was given
control over setting interest rates.

The ONS said average mortgage rates went up by 0.28 per cent during
the month as lenders responded to base rate rises in May and June.

The government's target rate of inflation - RPI ( X ) , which excludes
mortgage rate payments - also recorded a sharp rise last month. The
annual rate in July was 3 per cent, well above June's 2.7 per cent and the
government's 2.5 per cent target. July's data mean that, according to the
latest figures, the UK now has the highest rate of inflation among the Group
of Seven nations.

In an unusually forthright statement, Mr Geoffrey Robinson, a Treasury
minister, predicted that RPI ( X ) would soon fall back to meet the
government's target rate.

"If the Budget numbers work through, and we get some of the benefits
from the Budget as well on the disinflationary side, we can look forward to
it being on target within the next couple of months," Mr Robinson said.

Asked if he meant it would be back to 2.5 per cent by September, Mr
Robinson said: "Around that period. We should be pretty much in line with
the targets we set the Bank . . . 2.5per cent."

The Treasury said that last month's figures had been distorted by a number
of "one-off factors" such as the Budget's rise in petrol excise duty, while
September's index would be reduced by the cut in value-added tax on fuel.

The ONS said the increase in road fuel duty added an average of 4 pence
per litre to petrol, an annual rise of 14.8 per cent.

What must worry the Bank of England is that the influence of the strong
pound in keeping down prices appears to be waning, especially in
commodities and raw materials.

Setting aside the higher petrol costs, goods inflation has been 0.4 per cent
in the last two months alone. Should sterling make a sharp retreat, higher
inflation could creep back in.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 21:24)
( Be sure to read through to the Boeing news )
Malaysia trade deficit: Imports may be


By James Kynge in Kuala Lumpur

Malaysia yesterday said for the first time that costly imports should be
deferred in an attempt to bring down the country's rising trade deficit, the
trigger behind its currency's plunge to near historic lows against the US

Mr Anwar Ibrahim, deputy prime minister and finance minister, said
companies which import goods readily available in Malaysia could also
be penalised.

He said that some of the country's large infrastructure projects, which suck
in many so-called "lumpy" imports will be reviewed. "There are maybe
some projects which we think we can defer," Mr Anwar said, declining to
name them.

His comments represented a first public recognition that the trade deficit,
which swelled to M$2.8bn ( 660m ) in June, is at least partly responsible
for the slide of the Malaysian ringgit.

The currency fell to M$2.7930 to the dollar at one point yesterday - a
42-month low and perilously close to the M$2.80 level at which it was
floated in 1973. Later it rebounded to M$2.7645, nearly 12 per cent
down since early July.

Dr Mahathir Mohamad, the prime minister, has said Malaysia's tumbling
currency and stock values do not stem from domestic problems. Instead,
he has railed against external forces such as Mr George Soros, the US
financier, and other speculators for "brigandage" in attacking the ringgit.

Economists said yesterday's remarks by Mr Anwar were a positive sign
that Kuala Lumpur is facing up to the fact that its economy may be in need
of some profound adjustments.

Many economists also said that selective capital controls imposed by the
central bank, Bank Negara, this month have proven ineffective in halting
the ringgit's slide.

The controls have also been blamed for touching off panic selling in the
local stockmarket, which declined slightly yesterday at a 22-month low of
897.25 points.

The cost of restricting curbing imports, however, might be felt in a slowing
economy, or in the frustration of corporate expansion plans. For example,
analysts asked if Malaysian Airlines, which is due to import another seven
Boeing 777 aircraft in the year to March 31 1998, would be permitted to
take delivery of them.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 21:29)
( How does a 16 billion loan service 73 billion in short term debt?
Thailand: Finance minister seeks Japanese
bank loan roll-over


By Gillian Tett in Tokyo

Mr Thanong Bidaya, Thailand's finance minister, yesterday appealed to
Japanese banks to roll over their short-term loans to the country as part of
a broad rescue package for Thailand in the aftermath of its recent
currency turmoil.

Japanese banks yesterday refrained from making any concrete pledges of
support at a meeting held with Mr Thanong in Tokyo, officials said.

The meeting comes amid growing expectations that Japan's banks, which
account for almost half of all private sector debt to Thailand, are
preparing to extend support to the country.

Yesterday's talks follow an announcement on Monday that the
International Monetary Fund and a group of Asian countries, led by Japan,
will provide a package of $16bn ( 9.8bn ) worth of loans to Thailand.
This is more than the $14bn financing gap which Thailand currently faces,
the IMF said.

Some observers suspect that Thailand may still ask for additional
private-sector loans from private banks. However, Mr Thanong denied
that he had asked for further specific loans from the Japanese banks

The key support the Thai government is likely to seek is not so much new
lending, but a pledge that Japanese banks will roll over the short-term
loans that they have extended to the country.

Mr Thanong said on Monday that about half of the total $73bn private
debt was short-term in nature.

Japanese banks are broadly prepared to provide support, officials
yesterday said. But they are insisting that any agreement should come with
the participation of other US, European and Asia banks.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 21:32)
Wow!!! S&P futures continue to get clobbered. They are now down 6.00 points from 3:00 p.m. level. The DJIA now looks to open 50 to 60 points lower tomorrow morning.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 21:33)
UPS, GM, Ford? Who is next?
Looks like UAW at GM and Ford may follow UPS teamsters

(Tue Aug 12 1997 21:35)
Brazil: Inflation fillip for economy


By Geoff Dyer in Braslia

Brazilian prices have fallen by more than a quarter of a per cent during the
last four weeks, according to the Economic Research Institute ( Fipe ) ,
providing further evidence of the sharp reduction in inflationary pressures in
the Brazilian economy.

Mr Juarez Rizzieri, head of Fipe at the University of So Paulo, said that,
apart from a three-week period in December last year, this was the first
time prices had fallen in Brazil since the launch of a new currency three
years ago. The Fipe index, which measures prices in So Paulo, was 0.28
per cent lower between July 8 and August 7, having risen 0.11 per cent in
the previous four weeks.

In a separate announcement, the National Statistics Institute ( IBGE )
announced the consumer price index rose 0.18 per cent in July, after rising
0.35 per cent in June, bringing inflation for the previous 12 months to 4.85
per cent.

On Monday the independent Getulio Vargas Foundation said the IGP-DI
price index rose only 0.09 per cent in July, against an increase of 0.7 per
cent in June.

Mr Rizzieri said he expected prices to fall by around 0.5 per cent during
August, with seasonal factors contributing to the drop, including clothes
sales and cheaper food prices after the harvest, especially of fruit and

He expected the average rate of inflation over the year to be about 0.3 per
cent to 0.4 per cent per month.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 21:41)
@Tomorrows data
For Wednesday the 13th ( how fitting )

United States ( 8:30 a.m. )

Retail Sales - July
Retail Sales ex. Autos -July

PPI - July
PPI ex. food & energy - July

Canada ( 8:30 a.m. ) New Motor Vehicle Sales - June

(Tue Aug 12 1997 21:45)
Puetz -- I've found that the best time to use the Globex data is around 8:30 A.M. to 9:15 A.M. This is a thinley traded market subject to wide swings. The big boys tend to step up to the plate in the morning.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 21:52)
UPS Strike @ I can't hold out anymore
Small Businesses reel from UPS strike; Company sees 15,000 layoffs.

United Parcel Service Strike is Killing Business - Literally
"My business is gone,It's over, I can't hold out anymore."

Canada - 200 of 5,900 UPS Canadian employees, out of work.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 21:55)
Robert Chote: There may be trouble ahead

Originally published: MONDAY AUGUST 4 1997

It is not easy to predict where and when currency crises will strike

As Thailand prepares to swallow the unpalatable medicine
prescribed by the International Monetary Fund, the pressures
that have toppled a succession of south-east Asian currencies
in recent weeks seem to be abating. But history suggests it is
only a matter of time before another victim finds itself in the
speculators' sights.

Currency crises are triggered by a combination of bad policies and bad
luck. Many economists have tried to devise models that can predict when
and where they will strike, but it is no easy task. A country in recession or
with a deep current account deficit seems in more danger than one
boasting strong growth or a trade surplus, but these characteristics are
neither necessary nor sufficient to predict where an accident may happen.

Theorists distinguish between crises that can be explained by poor
economic fundamentals - an overvalued exchange rate, for example - and
those which are driven by self-fulfilling expectations for which it is difficult
to find a proximate explanation.

There may be a range of "fundamentals" within which a country is
vulnerable to attack. This implies two tasks for policymakers: to improve
their fundamentals and to reduce the range within which they are
vulnerable. A government might achieve the latter, for example, by
increasing the maturity of its foreign currency debt.

Crises elsewhere increase the risk of a crisis. Recent events in south-east
Asia are a classic example of this "contagion" effect, in which speculators
get a taste of blood from one attack and move to the next.

At a recent conference organised in Cambridge by the Centre for
Economic Policy Research and the Global Economic Institutions
programme, Andrew Rose of the University of California ( Berkeley )
presented a paper looking at crises in 20 industrial countries between 1959
and 1993.* The study concludes that attacks on foreign currencies
increase the probability of a domestic attack by 8 per cent.

The study identifies two channels for contagion. Speculators may pick on
countries which trade heavily with an existing crisis victim, perhaps because
a devaluation in one country will put pressure on its trading partners to
devalue as well to maintain their competitiveness. Alternatively, they may
pick on a country with similar economic policies and performance.

Rose argued that the trade effect appeared to be stronger, but this may be
because the study focused on industrial countries. The recent episode of
turbulence - which began with Thailand and the Czech Republic being hit
at the same time - suggests that economic similarities may be more
important in emerging market crises. Casual observation suggests
speculators have been targeting countries with big current account deficits.

Can certain economic indicators be used to predict crises reliably?
Different explanations for crises imply that different indicators might be
useful. If crises are caused by excessively loose monetary and fiscal policy,
one might expect this to be reflected for a country defending a fixed
exchange rate by rapid domestic credit growth and a steady decline in
international reserves. Alternatively, one might argue that a fixed exchange
rate will crack when the cost to the real economy of defending it with high
interest rates becomes prohibitive. In which case, output growth and the
differential between domestic and foreign interest rates might be the
variables to look at. But if crises are the result of self-fulfilling expectations,
early warning indicators might be impossible to find.

These possibilities were investigated in a paper published last month by the
International Monetary Fund.** This paper built on an earlier study
looking at 76 currency crises in 15 developing and five industrial countries
between 1970 and 1995.

The behaviour of international reserves, the real exchange rate, domestic
credit, credit to the public sector and domestic inflation all warned of
crises, the IMF paper argued. The trade balance, export performance,
money growth, real GDP growth and fiscal deficit also sent signals.

The study argued that it was important to examine a number of indicators,
because the performance of any one was patchy at best. In the months
before a crisis the best performing indicator - a real exchange rate
divergent from its long-run trend - signalled problems ahead on only 25 per
cent of occasions when that warning would have been justified. It would
also have signalled a looming crisis on 5 per cent of occasions when none

An early warning system of this sort could prove useful for investors and
the international financial institutions, but it has limitations. The absence of
an infallible indicator of a looming crisis means a country may feel it can
ignore warnings. Since 1995 the IMF has had a series of disagreements
with south-east Asian governments about the dangers of overheating.

"Given the priority attached to high growth rates to raise living standards,
the authorities may be cautious about tightening policy on the basis of
growth forecasts and uncertain estimates of potential before there is hard
evidence in price and external sector data," an internal IMF memo
observed last year. "It is not surprising, therefore, to find differences of
opinion between the fund and member authorities about the risks of

These differences of opinion were conspicuous in Indonesia, Malaysia,
Korea and Thailand, all of which have hit trouble subsequently. Malaysia
and Indonesia insisted that strong investment spending would allow them
to sustain rapid growth, while the Koreans argued that tightening policy
was politically impossible. Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand all resisted
IMF calls to raise interest rates during 1995.

Since the Mexican financial crisis in 1994-95, tighter surveillance of
national economic policies has been seen as the best way to avoid trouble.
But when the timing and location of crises appear to be driven as much by
misfortune as mismanagement, it is disappointing but not surprising that
many countries still choose to push their luck.

*Contagious Currency Crises, Eichengreen et al, CEPR Discussion
Paper 1453, 1996.
** Leading Indicators of Currency Crises, Kaminsky et al, IMF
Working Paper 97/79, 1997.

 Copyright the Financial Times Limited 1997

(Tue Aug 12 1997 21:55)
Schippi: The FSAGX graph I used is from:
I assumed it was adjusted for payouts because it shows a high of $29 something from May '96 rather than the actual NAV high of $31.52 for that time.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 21:56)
Schippi: The FSAGX graph I used is from:

I assumed it was adjusted for payouts because it shows a high of $29 something from May '96 rather than the actual NAV high of $31.52 for that time.

Lan Man
(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:02)
@Closing Bell including Copper
COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended lower on moderate
volumes Tuesday, after the U.S dollar and stocks and bonds
recovered further ground early in the session.

But after COMEX and NYMEX closed the Dow Jones Industrial Average
and the U.S. thirty year treasury bond slid back to test last
Friday's lows, and spot gold prices in the bullion market
recovered some of the day's losses.

But estimated COMEX gold volume was only moderate at 27,000 lots
and COMEX gold open interest fell 2,970 lots Monday to 197,365
contracts, suggesting a good deal of their recent gains were
shortcovering analysts said.

"Bullion dealers and funds have been buying recently, but funds
won't get really nervous until December gold breaks above the top
of its recent range around $335.00 an ounce," FIMAT New York
analyst John Tyree said. "There's been some producer selling
interest near the top of the range in recent weeks, but if a sell
off back to the lows in July occurs, it could be an exhaustion
sell off as there are good Middle East scale down buyers below
$325.00 in particular," he said.

"July volume in the gold market was better than expected and the
$325.00 area was where gold took off from back in 1993, so with
equity and bond prices much higher than then, hedge funds could be
getting interested again," Tyree said. "The Wall Street Journal
reported today that some $20 billion has moved into hedge funds in
the past year, which suggests a fairly sizable shift in assets may
be beginning," he noted.

"The bounce in gold recently looks like it has been mostly
shortcovering, but there was also tremendous buying in the market
below $325.00, so gold feels like it is priming itself for big
move, or at least more volatility," one New York bullion bank
dealer said. "There's been no central bank activity for some weeks
and producers have been both lifting hedges and putting them on,
we could see a big range, as there's room on the upside but gold
could easily test last months low also," he said.

NYMEX October platinum ended down $7.00 an ounce at $435.00, while
NYMEX September palladium lost $4.00 to $218.00, as platinum group
metals ( PGMs ) futures continued to consolidate after recovering to
contract highs last week.

"But still more physical metal is required before the tightness in
PGM markets ends," one U.S. PGM dealer said. "Even with Russian
shipments to Japan resuming, this is going to take awhile to
unwind, as companies are scrambling to find substitutes for
palladium in particular so they are not held hostage to the
Russians," he said.

For the full text story, see

COMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
Aug97 327.60 327.60 326.00 326.70 _1.50 414.50 314.60
Oct97 329.30 329.60 326.80 328.80 _1.60 426.50 316.80
Dec97 331.30 331.50 328.70 330.80 _1.70 456.50 318.50
Feb98 333.50 333.60 332.10 332.70 _1.80 424.00 322.50
Apr98 335.60 335.60 334.50 334.70 _1.80 408.40 325.00
Dec98 343.50 343.80 343.00 343.90 _2.00 506.80 334.50
Dec99 358.00 358.00 358.00 358.70 _2.00 506.00 351.00
Est. Sales 34280

COMEX - 5,000 troy oz. _ cents per troy oz.
Sep97 441.00 443.00 438.00 442.50 _1.50 576.00 418.00
Dec97 447.00 450.00 444.50 449.00 _1.50 701.90 424.00
Mar98 452.50 454.50 452.50 455.40 _1.50 573.00 432.00
May98 457.50 458.00 457.50 459.40 _1.50 564.00 437.00
Jul99 493.00 493.00 493.00 489.70 _1.50 660.00 472.00
Est. Sales 9490

----------------------HIGH GRADE COPPER-----------------------
COMEX - 25,000 lbs. cents per lb.
Aug97 103.70 105.10 103.70 104.70 _.50 120.90 84.10
Sep97 103.80 105.40 103.60 104.85 _.35 120.50 83.00
Oct97 103.70 104.70 103.70 104.35 _.35 117.20 84.50
Dec97 101.60 103.15 101.60 102.85 _.30 114.80 83.75
Feb98 101.00 101.50 101.00 101.80 _.20 106.30 85.50
Mar98 100.80 101.30 100.60 101.25 _.05 109.30 85.00
Jul98 98.80 99.30 98.80 99.05 +.25 104.10 84.80
Sep98 98.00 98.00 98.00 97.90 +.40 102.10 84.70
Dec98 97.10 97.10 97.10 96.90 +.70 102.00 91.00
Est. Sales 5161

NYMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz
Sep97 220.00 220.00 216.50 218.00 _4.00 227.60 128.75
Dec97 206.00 207.00 206.00 206.50 _3.00 219.60 120.25
Est. Sales 403

COMEX - 50 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
Oct97 438.50 439.00 432.00 435.00 _7.00 463.70 355.50
Jan98 428.50 428.50 424.50 425.50 _7.00 454.00 360.00
Est. Sales 510

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:03)
I know I sound like a broken record, but I keep seeing people post what looks like real ( or near real ) time futures information on this board. I can't seem to find a web page that gives that information. Does anyone know a good site for real ( or near real ) time futures prices 24 hours a day? Thanks in advance


PS Niner, thanks for the site. I like it, but didn't find anything real time.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:04)
Teamsters getting ready for a long strike
The Teamsters received a promise of financial support from other unions
to keep strike going ( if necessary ) for many many weeks ( @ $10mill/week )

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:05)
@the scene
MachF15 -- Sorry I wasn't here to answer your question of 'where'. Try this site out:
That'll take you right to it.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:12)
MachF15 : Here's another

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:12)
Thanks Eldorado, good site.


(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:14)
and thank you NJ


(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:14)
John Disney: I have lost contqact with the Blyvoor deal. Are the .65 shares the same that were not going to go below $5.00 when the shares experienced a reverse split some months ago? This would make the old shares about .15 if I remember correctly.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:24)
Stocks down Japan -214, HK -157, Aust -40, NZ -40

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:24)
@the scene
6pak -- Seems like the UPS thingy can really snowball into real badass news! Unless UPS 'surrenders' it's looking like that these 'Teamsters' will soon be looking for work, amongst all the other employees of closed-door firms!

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:28)
UPS: Strike to save the 'American dream'

Originally published: THURSDAY AUGUST 7 1997

Expanding US companies are increasingly turning to cheap part-time
workers, writes Richard Tomkins

One of the placards being waved by pickets outside the United Parcel
Service depot in downtown Manhattan declares that the company's
blue-collar workers are on strike to "save the American dream".

Lofty as it may sound, the claim is true to the extent the dispute, now in its
fourth day, is not just another strike about money.

The workers' union says it is about the way companies are asking people
to work in the US: or, more precisely, the growing trend towards part-time

UPS is by far the largest parcel delivery company in the US, handling 12m
packages on an average business day. To get these packages to their
destinations, it employs an army of 185,000 drivers, handlers and sorters,
almost all of them represented by the International Brotherhood of

But delivering parcels is not a nine-to-five job. The working day has two
peak periods: the evening pick-up and the morning delivery. And UPS,
facing tough competition from other carriers, feels it cannot afford to pay
people to stand idle during the off-peak hours.

As a result the company employs an unusually high percentage of
part-timers: nearly 60 per cent at the last count. As the company has
grown, the proportion of part-timers has increased: of the 46,000 jobs
created in the last five years, no fewer than 38,000 have been part-time.

Part-timers are paid far less than full-timers, earning only $8 or $9 an hour
after two years' service compared with $19.95 an hour for full- timers. But
workers on the Manhattan picket line say many work a full eight-hour day
- for example, working from 4am to 9am as a sorter or loader, then going
out on a delivery round until noon.

Mr Jos Garcia, a full-time driver, says: "These guys are doing the same
amount of work as full-timers, but UPS is paying them part-time wages. It
just isn't fair on guys trying to raise families."

UPS is not unique. As competitive pressures have risen, US companies are
increasingly turning towards part-time employment as a means of
increasing flexibility and minimising their labour costs. According to the
Bureau of Labour Statistics, the percentage of part-timers in the US
workforce has grown from 14 per cent in 1968 to 18 per cent now.

The teamsters' union says this is the issue at the core of the UPS strike.
"The use of part-time, temporary and contract workers continues to go up
and up even as large corporations make record profits," says Mr Steve
Trossman, a representative in the union's Washington headquarters.
"Workers and their families cannot survive on part-time jobs with part-time
benefits and part-time pensions. We believe corporations have a
responsibility to provide good, full-time jobs, and UPS would like to get
away with not doing that."

UPS strongly denies that it is replacing full-time jobs with part-time ones,
pointing out that it has been adding full-time jobs as well as part-time ones.
Under an agreement with the teamsters' union, four out of five full-time
positions are offered to part-timers.

Besides, it says, most of the part-time positions are filled by college
students, housewives and retirees who would not be available for full-time
work. "The large majority of people working for UPS in part-time
positions want part-time employment," the company says.

UPS claims the teamsters' union is using the part-time issue as a
smokescreen to cover up greater concern over a company proposal to set
up a new employee pension scheme, ending an arrangement under which
UPS pays into 31 local and regional pension funds run by the union. Under
the existing arrangement, many companies pay into the same funds, so if
one company goes bankrupt, others pick up their pension liability. UPS
says it is heavily subsidising other companies' plans, and it could increase
UPS employee benefits by 50 per cent if it opted out of multi-employer

However, the union appears to have scored a tactical victory by
highlighting the role of part-timers. UPS will gain little sympathy for its
position if the union succeeds in characterising the company as part of a
faceless corporate America bent on destroying "real" jobs in the pursuit of

Nor is this likely to be the only battle over the issue.

As continuing economic growth increases the demand for labour, a more
powerful workforce will become less tolerant of high corporate profits and
low part-time wages. "The bottom line here is corporate greed: sheer, total
greed," says Mr Tony Vee, a UPS driver on the Manhattan picket line.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:34)
London gold clearings rise to 37 million ounces daily.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:41)
Australia RBA says gold price fall not their fault.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:42)
I too am curious, but wasn't the reverse split only 1 for 2, not 1 for 4? At any rate with the consolidation of three companies it makes it all that more complicated to keep track of. What we need is gold to the moon so that these trivialities won't bother us so much.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:47)
Japan "falling into deflationary pit"

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:48)
Mooney; You may be correct with the 2 for 1 figure. I have forgotten the details but it seems it has dropped considerably if I understand the message from John Disney. Maybe Ray knows the answer.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:49)
@the scene
Mooney -- I see it coming, but One must also be careful what One wishes for! This paper based economy is going to have hell to pay, and we all have to also live with/within it! BAD scene!

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:51)
Mooney: Actually I think I remember that the shares were below U$1 at the time of the reverse split so that would make them a 5 for 1. Will somebody clearify this matter before midnight---70 minutes to go.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:52)
Mooney: Actually I think I remember that the shares were below U$1 at the time of the reverse split so that would make them a 5 for 1. Will somebody clearify this matter before midnight---70 minutes to go.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:52)
and the time is:
At CME after hours: nasd 100 down -650 and S&P500 -325. ( and all is well )

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:53)
Do not want a food fight @ Canada
Eldorado @ 22:24 I expect that closed door = closed shop, and that
open door = open shop ( non-union ) .

My take suggests that the UPS will "surrender" when given the order to
do so. The Union, will do likewise, "surrender". When given orders.
That is how *Responsible* ( sell out ) union leadership, represents
the rank and file. Like, a general, would lead his troops to slaughter,
not likely eh ! I feel bad for these workers, they are good people.

There are shareholders, also, involved, in this strike, what is the
shareholders take on the issues of part time work, and wages,
and benefits ? One must expect shareholders have rights, and opinions ?

Open-shop ( non-union ) workers are less likely to be used, as effectively,
to gain the necessary impact on the economy. Politics, is a dirty
business eh! Is that not why, you, and I, and others, are gold bugs.
Politics ? I have no interest, in destroying good people.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:54)
If he doesn't stop putting his foot in his mouth he'll soon only have one leg. And if he REALLY want's to appear as if he had half a brain he wouldn't make statements reminding people that they sold into the lows ( helped to cause them, in fact ) , viz "``And of course any movement that's occured in the last month is tiny
compared to with what had occured over the previous 18 months when
we were not involved at all.'' " Come to think of it the guy actually doesn't have a leg to stand on! :- )

(Tue Aug 12 1997 22:56)
good pt!
D.A.: Thanks

(Tue Aug 12 1997 23:07)
@For Those Who Can Rember This Far Back:
Long term commodity prices for several countries going back to 1600!!

(Tue Aug 12 1997 23:08)
Byron : Do you think those who sold in the last hour today knew the numbers being released tomorrow and thursday?

(Tue Aug 12 1997 23:08)
@the end
Thanx Panda.....EBN Gold up .35 and Asian equities down...Good night too WW!...Go UPS!

(Tue Aug 12 1997 23:10)
@the scene
6pak -- Actually, my 'closed-door' referred to all those other businesses closing their doors because of lack of shipping. Those people are as unemployed as the Teamsters on strike will find themselves if UPS doesn't cave in.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 23:18)
@the scene
Donald -- Re: Your 22:47; I think that all they ever needed to do was to give the workers a raise; some more spending money! How else does one make them consumers? Are they stingy or something? Companies can't earn unless their potential consumers can spend! Why is it they have such a damn hard time learning this simple leason?

(Tue Aug 12 1997 23:19)
goose@ Glenn, Glenn where are you...
Where is Glenn.. Sure miss his comments.. We need ya!!! thinks most share holders of UPS are the managers!!

(Tue Aug 12 1997 23:20)
Goodnight Ted, Selby, and All. And especially to you Glenn and RJ - wherever you might be!

(Tue Aug 12 1997 23:21)
Interesting day shaping up here.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 23:22)
Missed the url.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 23:24)
Donald: LBMA clearing 37 million ounces per day. ..... Isn't that a bit over 1000 tons per day? Or roughly one third of the annual market? Whether paper gold or actual stuff, it's still a bunch. ..... Wonder what that number will look like if there is ever again a real market for gold? One where people actually want to buy for possession. ..... Of such stuff, are dreams made. Sigh.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 23:33)
Nite Mooney and Ted/ whatever you might believe? Nite RJ and Glenn keep up the good work. SPEED luv ya orange ie Astros all the way!

John Disney
(Tue Aug 12 1997 23:37)
For selby/mooney -

Blyvoor options I refer to are striking 6 ( I think ) in or around 2002.
They will be traded in for the new DD options at 4:1. Blyvoor shares
will also be traded for DD shares at 4:1. The ADR represent 3 Blyvoors
as you know.
The options had been issued at 2.5. They went down a lot. I know. I have some.

(Tue Aug 12 1997 23:40)
@ Heading For the Clifts:
Last time I check the overnight NASQ was down -650. It is now down -2275!!! S&P500 now down-465..
Whoa Nellie!!!

(Tue Aug 12 1997 23:56)
@ ???????
Now NASD100 shows down -1750. One explanation I saw posted at Avid Chat was there was a large spread between Bid and Ask??? .. Quess I'll have to monitor financial news tonight on the local CSB radio. Financial updates every 30 minutes. Had coffee very late tonight. This will give me something to do. Nite all Library closing. : )