Index - YTD %-change + ( rank ) & ONE Year change + ( rank )
Australian Gold index -26.9 ( 5 ) -27.7 ( 5 )
London FT Gold index -22.9 ( 3 ) -27.1 ( 4 )
S+P Gold index -14.7 ( 2 ) -19.5 ( 2 )
TSE Gold index -26.8 ( 4 ) -26.0 ( 3 )
Gold Price ( P.M. Fix ) -12.2 ( 1 ) -15.9 ( 1 )
Johannesburg Gold Index-36.0 ( 6 ) -45.6 ( 6 )

Hey--Peutz:

What makes you think the US govt. Won't arbitrarily "FIX" the price of gold again in the next Depression? What is Plan "B" for all yoyr metal coin holding followers in this event?

For all you Fidelity gold fund fans out there, here is a comparison chart showing relative performance of fsagx, fdpmx, and xau over last 5 years.

Is there no one interested in responding to my post on platinum? This seems to be a boys only site. If I can't play too, I'll go away!!!!

True! Scary, isn't it? So, the prudent individual
must quietly begin to act to protect himself.

Steve ( 12:47 )
Gold physical properties
Melting point: 1064.76 Celsius Boiling pt: 2700 C
& for our platinum bug previous who seems left out
Melting pt: 1773.5 C Boiling pt: 3827 C

Vapor distillation I suppose could be possible but probably not practical.

is there anyone in kitco land that subscribes to Arc Crawford's newsletter or hotline that can fill us in on his latest analysis??

That's ARCH Crawford.

Can't tell you why platinum has been moving down, but I have been watching the longer term movement of the metals. Platinum, like the others has been moving in a fairly well defined channel since February. Although it has dropped recently, it is still well above the bottom of this channel, which is rising overall at a rate of around 36%/year. ( I chose to ignore the spike to $500 as an anomalie. ) If platinum follows this channel, it will not hit $500 by the end of August.

PLATINUM @Wondering: If platinum is 10 times more rare than gold, then
you and I will be amply rewarded. The question is when. Why don't we
just wait a little bit longer? The answer may come soon.

Yellow Jacket: I concur, the site is simply "fringe science." These are people without any training ( and less common sense ) that postulate all manner of "discoveries." You may appreciate a site hosted by Don Lancaster, found at

http://www.tinaja.com/

called "Don Lancaster's Guru Lair." He loves to debunk the crazies that try to give science a bad rep . . .

Best Regards, Niner

Ron - Re: your 19:48 on the flow of moneys out of equity funds into money market funds. You may recall we had a very interesting discussion about just this subject on Kitco several weeks back. We are now seeing it actually beginning to happen.

Some here were predicting a disaster for the U.S. if offshore investment in U.S. government debt declines or stops. It seems obvious to me that the feds have just the tool they need to solve this problem. Alittle scare here, a little interest rate hike there,... How much do you need Bill? No problem. Plenty of investors right here in the good, old U.S. of A. ready to buy government debt to your hearts content. Of course the equity market would take it in the shorts, but hey! ... can we help it if all these people ignored our warning about "irrational exuburance"?

Question?

Part 1: For those of you that know these things, how much money would have to come out of the equity market to solve a worst case scenario problem due to lack of offshore buying, or worse yet, actual net selling of US government debt?

Part 2: How much would the US equity market drop if this much money came out of it?

One thing for sure, the feds would not allow the mutual funds to prohibit transfer of money to government money funds until they had all they needed.

No joy to us in this scenario, however. The feds would want to make damn sure that equity fund redemptions were not reinvested in gold! This would do them no good at all.

Sorry Platinum. That was my posting to you with the chart. This is the 3rd time I've done this. Must be my habit to entering e-mail addressees names first.

Leland, DJ. Thank you for your response. I am getting a little nervous about this platinum thing. I love it as jewelery but I'm not sure I have the fortitude to play such a volatile game. The investors group I belong to thought I was nuts for moving out of stocks and into platinum bullion.

JDM: Perhaps the orchestration of gold prices we are witnessing lately is in large part the cause of entities wishing to make profits from today's cheap gold. If I wielded the power of some of the participants, a cross-section of central banks and the like, I might devise a scheme whereby I could talk "other participants" into helping to maintain the price of gold for economic reasons benefitting their respective economies . . . ( however convoluted ) . . .

All the while accumulating stores of the metal because the grand plan would entail a realization that equity markets had reached near their tops, while the metals, i.e. gold, had nowhere to go but upward . . .

Hmmmm, what country might do such a deed? And more to the point, our perceived "enemies" might actually be our friends, in that there is but a small segment ( an inconsequential percentage ) of us that are really invested goldbugs. No threat whatsoever . . . They are aiding and abetting our cause.

The above comments may hint toward a conspiracy, but shucks, if a couple of brothers could do it, why not a government or two . . . ?

Best Regards, Niner

GEFF: Your 00:21 - I don't know what Steve Peutz's plan B is but you have of course heard of the Govts War on Drugs and how successful that is? I do not think people will lay down and play dead in the next Depression the way they did in the last, except for a few veterans and farmers of course.

Ron: I don't know about you but I am tired of being the sucker. I
am paying taxes while the supper rich and the corporations they
control are evading taxes and buying tax favors.

Bob: Given the very bad action Friday and Monday, I strongly suspected that CB selling and/or rumors of same might be the cause. So I was not surprised by your report. BTW, Peter Monk mentioned gold possibly going to $280, not $240.

Globex @ 3.30am
Sp500 -250
Nasdaq -600

Hong Kong down 619pts 3.8%
China down 7%
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/asia.html

Korean government intends to exert pressure on Moody's to provide good credit rating for Korean debt.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0819/m0819b12.html

NICK: I show Shanghi down 0.15% Where are you getting the other number from ( China 7% ) ?

Korean bank bailout news.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0819/m0819b01.html

December gold up 60 cents. Joberg gold index down 0.6%. European stock markets strong.

Bullion action discouraging. Gold stock action very encouraging.

Now that the bad news/rumors about further CB selling is out, I doubt that bullion will be making new lows this week. But as we all know, anything can happen in this market.

Asian devaluations put pressure on Mexican Peso.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/15/z0009_120.html

GENE: Regarding your post of Aug. 18, 1997 at 23:25, the Congress is also
considering a so-called ex-patriot tax. Under the provisions of this inspired piece of work, any person giving up his US citizenship must first pass his estate through the meat-grinder of the estate tax, settle up with the government as if he had died, and then he can leave. It's eerily reminiscent of the Soviet Union at its worst. I guess the "problem" is that too many millionaires are taking their money elsewhere.
It reminds me again of the Soviet Union: a man was walking through a park with his 6 year old daughter when they came upon a statue of Lenin. The father asked his daughter if she knew who Lenin was and she replied, "Oh, yes, Father, Lenin is the man who drove all the rich people out of Russia."

The ex-patriot tax law may well include provision, as you mentioned, for taxing the ex-pat for 10 years; that may well be another bill. On the same subject, there are only two countries in the world that tax their citizens on the basis of citizenship rather than location: The US and the Philippines. All others figure if you're somewhere else you can pay taxes where you are.

If the government can think this way about taxes, they certainly could seize gold...for the second time.

Economists say Fed to leave rates steady.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/15/z0009_120.html

Comments by Bundesbank Council Member ease German rate hike fears.
http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/08/18/financial_news/money_3.html

An interesting view of the stock market. Low inflation no longer good news.


Another Perspective

The following article by Tony Evans gives an interesting perspective
to the U.S. markets. Tony trades the South African exchanges but is
more than aware of the U.S. market's influence. It is said that
the best source of U.S. news is often found in other countries...

Review of US Equity Markets
by Tony Evans  BOE NatWest Securities
18 August 1997

Inflation  is it really the issue?

"Of the 305 companies on our list that reported profit
increases last year, a hefty 78% grew earnings faster
than revenues." - US Fortune 500 ( April 28, 1997 )

Last week's data out of the US showed the 7th consecutive drop in PPI and
continued benign CPI. Instead of the rally in equity prices that would
normally greet such news, the Dow experienced its sharpest weekly decline
since late 1990.
Low US inflation has been touted as one of the major causes of the boom in
corporate profits in recent years. There is, however, compelling evidence
that the growth in US corporate profits has been driven by technological
advances, increased productivity, lower interest rates, and corporate cost
cutting measures.
Low inflation has been the result of this approach, not the cause. The US
is a highly sophisticated, highly competitive market place. Any company
raising prices is certain to feel the wrath of the savvy US consumer. In
addition, the Fed has made it very clear that any sign of inflation will be
met with a hike in interest rates, putting additional pressure on
corporates to seek cost benefits rather than price benifits.
Simply put, corporate America has lost control of its price mechanism, and
so its attention has turned to matters of market share, restructuring,
productivity and technological enhancement. The results have been
astounding. While increases in revenues have been moderate, corporate
profits have soared, leading to a large expansion in business investment,
employment, and to a lesser extent, production and consumer demand.
There is however a limit to the amount of growth that can be derived from
squeezing the maximum profit out of each dollar of revenue. To sustain the
current level of corporate growth, companies must now expand, either
through increased sales, or increased prices. As previously mentioned, the
latter option in a highly competitive environment is a non-starter, which
leaves increased sales as the final frontier for continued corporate
growth.
But where will these sales come from? Probably the most important
economic indicator out of the US recently, and largely ignored by financial
markets, is the increase in the US trade deficit. Import growth has been
running at double the rate of export growth, and further pressured by the
recent strength of the dollar.
With overall sales subdued, and Americans buying increasing volumes of
cheaper foreign goods, the prospect of US corporations increasing their
revenues is bleak. Adding to this gloom is the sharp increase in consumer
credit extension and a 24% increase in banckruptcy filings over the last
year, a number that has left many economists scratching their heads.
Last week the Michigan Fed reported a sharp drop in consumer confidence.
Commentators again lauded the decline as "anti-inflationary hence good."
It is ironic that any strength in consumption in the US is viewed as a
portent of inflation. Rather, in a market where inflation has become a
non-issue, it should be viewed as an indicator of corporate health. The
retail numbers have been subdued, and relieved investors, their inflation
worries appeased, have continued to plough money into US equities. The US
economy has almost become an extention of the average American ego: Low
inflation, stable growth, spiralling wealth ( on paper, at least. ) We have
even heard the term "Perfection".
Another danger signal, digested by the market as "anti-inflationary hence
good" is the recent surge in US business and wholesale inventories, rising
at a rate not seen since the early 80's. It's good news for the Fed,
anti-inflationary certainly, but damaging for corporate well being. It
puts pressure on cashflow and margins, and dampens the pace of the economic
cycle. Recent earnings warnings have come from Microsoft, Coca-Cola and
Gillette, and more could follow.
The inability of the Equity markets to rally on the "good" inflation news
last week may be the first sign that investors are overcoming their
inflation fixation. Perhaps they are beginning to wonder whether valuing a
market at 23 times earnings is warranted or sustainable given a
non-inflationary, stable revenue environment with a widening trade deficit?
Over the past three years the traditional role of equities as an inflation
beating investment has mutated itself into a paper chase of groutesque
proportions, with equity prices rising at a compound rate of over 30% per
annum. This, against interest rates around 6% and inflation below 3%.
It is not inflation, but the bread-and-butter issue of coporate profits
that will shape the US equity markets over the coming year. There are now
clear signs that third quarter corporate earnings could make for
uncomfortable reading, leaving investors playing a dangerous game of "pass
the parcel."

Appears that nearby gold still may have to reach 318-319 to touch base with support. If it breaks that level, we could see a final plunge to 307-310.

Silver still chomping at the bit to break out, but in danger of taking a last topple to 409. Might have to wait a few days for both these metals to consolidate a bit longer before positive action. Speaking of price charts, for the Mother of all fractals in the gold market see the new Astrological Investor at http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/astro818.html Comments from the gang always appreciated and enjoyed.

GEORGE COLE: Investor psychology regarding inflation may indeed be undergoing a subtle shift. When one lives with a fear long enough, it either becomes devastating, or one eventually becomes careless. Almost invariably, stock bulls are ended by rising rates, but the rate rise usually begins during the latter stages. Stock prices often continue to rise for a time along with rising rates in a cyclical, or secular, bull market. Thus rising rates at this juncture would not necessarily be a damper on stock momentum. After perhaps a point and a half, that might begin to be another story. With the bond refusing to capitulate, and the Dow Utility Average sloppy at best, but certainly not yet shreiking a coming collapse, there is still room for an attempt to match the old highs in stocks. By the way George, Happy Coronation day. Today , as Venus conjuncts your Neptune ( actually a generational thing for many of us, fleeting though it is ) you can't help make money, or, at the very least, be treated very nicely by a member of the fair sex. Maybe both! Enjoy.

FUNDY: Puetz doesn't have to write a book about how to recognize a top or bottom. It's EASY. I've bought at EVERY gold bottom this year! ( :- ) ) AURIC: Thanks for the "debt clock". Now alls I need is a third computer so I can run it along with the Astro clock that shows the moving planets & houses. Not.

Internets Prophetic Resident Economist, George S. Cole, shares insightful & incisive views on all markets. Hes bullish GOLD & bearish common-stocks - Sees severe bear market in equities:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/cole817.html

Somebody posted a story from Reuter ( Yahoo ) last night, excerpts below re COT report. I'm also posting the actual COT of Aug12.
Compare the 'short positions' and keep in mind that COT was as at Aug.12 and 'shorts' added to their positions SIGNIFICANTLY on Wednesday & Thursday of last week.
Excerpts from Yahoos Reuter http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/18/nem_y0023_1.html
"In fact in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 12, released late Friday, net short positions
held by funds fell sharply to 49,704 lots from 70,906 just a week earlier, suggesting much of the recovery in gold prices in
recent weeks has been shortcovering by funds."

GOLD - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC.
REPORTABLE POSITIONS AS OF 08/12/97 |
-------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|----------------|-----------------|----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADING| LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
( CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES ) OPEN INTEREST: 196,685
COMMITMENTS
14,018 63,722 13,153 129,979 79,231 157,150 156,106 39,535 40,579
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/cmxsf.htm

Merrill Lynch was bearish on gold from $35 to $850 - turned bullish at all-time high of $850 in 1980! As usual Dines provides well-written insights on Gold & Silver:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines818.html

Fundy,
Re your 23:13 to Puetz on the need for a book on how to recognize a bottom or top after it has been reached, the headline on today's lead business story in the local paper : "BOTTOM FEEDERS LOAD UP"
That kinda says it all, doesn't it?

When Central Banks awake from their stupor & stop giving away their GOLD for free, supply side of metal fundamentals will develop an immediate vacuum & Gold prices will SOAR:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/butler816.html

Fundy: I have a chapter in my book ( Total Collapse ) that describes in detail the topping pattern during a crash. The pattern has been nearly identical during 1987, 1929, 1980 gold and silver crash, Tokyo in 1990, the South Sea Bubble, the Mississippi Bubble, Tulip-mania, .... E-mail me if your interested.

Geff: Plan B: The government sets to gold price where it belongs -- at $20,000 to $35,000 per ounce, and everything is hunky-dory. Plan C: The government sets the price artifically low at $1,000 per ounce, and I and everyone else convert our paper into gold -- then the markets will force the price to be raised. Plan D: The government bans gold ownership. I pick up my gold and get the heck out of this country. I have already thought all of this over.

If you want to see the future, perhaps you must look to the past. Mike Sheller translates Fractual Theory into laymans terms - drawing prophetic parellels to the 1985 Gold market:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/astro818.html

The Asian markets are mostly getting bombarded today. Yesterday's Wall Street rally hasn't helped calm the panic much over there!

I've got the EB gee-beez's: AWAAAAAAAY!

To me everbody is taking these rumors as true.
If they are true, why is Europe buying Gold the last hour?
Unless they know something we don't, they must be complete fools.
Since that is there neighborhood, maybe we are the fools.

In view of Fridays 247 point plunge in the DOW, AUROPHILES prophetic erudite & incisive analysis is a must read by serious market students:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/Aurophile810.html

Haven't you got the message yet!!.. GOLD IS STUFFED. Pathetically Stuffed.Ruined, finished, kaput.
Practically everyone at Kitco, night after nights desperately searches for the tiniest, weeniest spark in the embers of the fire of gold. It's an illusion. It's dead.. Dead as a maggot. Stuffed. Carked it. It aint there. The fire has been PI**ED on. ITS OUT.
Now whatarewegonnado?

Gold down over $4, and gold stocks barely blink. Dow "miraculously" recovers in final hour. When the bullies run the school...

Would somebody please give me the new EBN address.

Ray: They moved it slightly to: http://www.ebn.co.uk/Markets/

happy trading

This is for you, Ray: http://www.ebn.co.uk/Markets/Commodities
Just this past Friday morning Mrs. Ruthen at the county library helped my friend Thelma Watts find this one and some other wonderful sites for our ladies gold group. I hope it helps you.

It's so much fun talking to nice people from everywhere. You're not from Iowa, are you?

Well, everyone have a good day.

Ray: New EBN address: http:://www.ebn.co.uk/markets/commodities\

Au99.9 If you feel that strongly about gold being dead, may I suggest you change your handle to Au00.0

George S. Cole
John Dessauer, of Investors World in his free little book "The Great Inflation Surprise" has been preaching your thoughts on inflation for months. Where have you been? Inflation is dead,WORLD WIDE ..Period

Globex Prices 8:05 AM
S&P 500 -190, NSDQ 100 -755.
Alot better start than yesterday morning.

Donald try
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/asia.html
This URL has half a dozen Chinese indices
Most showing down between 5 - 7 %

AU99.99: Send me your gold. I'll pay postage. Leave you more room to store paper. Glad to help.

George S Cole: I apologize to you for inferring that those were your thoughts on inflation. I just re-read your post and discovered those were the views of Tony Evans and not necessarily yours.Sorry about that.

Lurker: You are correct the gov WILL outlaw gold along with many other things. All this will be enforced with fully automatic m16's. Once our gov held 500-600 million ounces of gold. Why do they need my single ounce? Do we not have a government of the people? Does not the peoples gold belong to the people? If so I'll just keep mine thank you. Perhaps a more important question is what do you do if they outlaw kissing your wife ( I am sure our leader will still have the right to sexually explore the 3 billion humans who are female ) ?

A question asked recently: Does anyone have an estimate of the gold in private hands in the US?

The trading pattern of the last 4 days in NY, Europe and Asia has confirmed the following:
1. The average U.S. investor is less informed than any foreign investor
2. The average U.S. investor is more intellectualy challanged.

URIS: Your enjoyable comments, please. After the BIG ONE in 1929, paper
stocks fell BELOW book values of the companies represented. Things went
from OVER to UNDER valuation. Today we are OVER OVER valued. Do you see
ANY sector, besides the precious metals, that make any kind of sense today?

Well, well, I see another "dumb wife" has surfaced on our chat line. As I recall, a "dumb wife" was derisively reported to have sold her gold mutual fund last winter. Hmmmm. Wonder if we could get a "dumb wife" indicator going....we might actually make some money. Oldman, I noticed that your wife pulled you off Kitco several months ago ( oh yes, it was a mutual decision ) . Was that a signal that she'd noticed gold was a poor investment? Earl, your wife seems to be interested in real estate. Now there's a sector thats been perking along. Anyone care to report on their wives' investments? Girlfriends will do. Or even that woman you said "hello" to in the supermarket last week.

Less seriously, it looks like a short-covering rally in gold may happen...sometime. Will it signal that the gold bear is dead? There has been an unexpected increase in inventories in the US this summer. This isn't good for the general US market, but it isn't good for gold either. There seems to be a general concensus here that if the Dow goes down, gold will go up. Could the concensus be wrong???

Uris: Apology accepted. Actully my view is that we will be experiencing much higher inflation for many of life's necessities in the years ahead, but further price declines for high-tech. Bad for retirees, good for boomers.

Mike Sheller: I sincerely hope my term as "King of Kitco" is a short one. If certain things happen this fall, I will resign the position and nominate someone else for "Emperor of Kitco". Most of us on this thread will be a lot better off financially when and if I tender my resignation.

December gold up $1.30. Perhaps the refusal of gold stocks to follow bullion into the cellar yesterday was a signal that this drop will not be long-lasting.

Leland, Oil and gas exploration company stocks still have some
good values available. Like anything else though be very
selective.

BW, Get your own full auto M16 in case that does happen. They
are still legal to own in most states after filing with
our friends in the ATF. You have the right to defend yourself
and your property given to you by God and our constitution.

Eh!! Never return the library book until you've read the epilogue.

Bernie: Oh, Yeah! And while we're at it, let's get rid of all those silly, pesky constitutional amendments so that corporations would be unable to pass on their new higher taxes to customers! Just imagine it, Bernie . . . kicking the corporate boogeyman in the teeth and no little guys getting hurt in the process. Hey! Maybe I could sell that to Dell Comics.

Mike Sheller- Enjoyed your article on the GOLD-EAGLE, "18th August". It just shows how many others out there do similar work and have similar thoughts to ones own. It's been the net and especially KITCO, that has given me access to other's thoughts.
Would like to add the following; since my work over the last 30 years has been mostly with gold stocks, the pattern theory holds true even more with stock patterns over the past. Check out PDG, HM, ASA, GLG just to mention a few, over some 30-40 years, patterns have repeated, and are now forming the same pattern on a gigantic scale, very interesting, that it goes along with the article you wrote on gold.
What I would like to improve my track record on, is the short term, and I find the comments of Oldman and RJ, when he posted, facinating. Since we chased the Hepcat, for obvious reasons, we can't take advantage of his abilities, and pick his brain a little. Cest la vie.

For those of you out there interested in investing in gold stocks, from here, any correction, I believe, is a buying opportunity of a lifetime.

I've read the comments on US government's potential threats, and I think they are real, but some years into the future, when it gets to dizzying hights, gold prices of course.

I used to extrapulate the future potential price, based on the past, but now with the patterns forming being so large, it could reach several thousand US Dollars in the not too distant future. Again confirming the patterns you refer to in your article.

Keep up the great work.

Leland: The only market sector, besides precious metals that interest me at the present time is information management. The companys that are serious about the Y2K problem that are attending the Cruttendon-Roth conference in New York next month are attractive as investments to me.There are about 30 company's attending so be very selective.Once again the name of the game is research,research,research.

5,394,165,041,072.99 that's trillions etc.

Hey George ....

I know it's your day and all but damn, do you have to look for a promotion already?

"If certain things happen this fall, I will resign the position and nominate someone else for "Emperor of Kitco". Most of us on this thread will be a lot better off financially when and if I tender my resignation. "

From King to Emperor in one foul swoop!

BTW, You can't resign ! Only pass on to greater things ! It's like a Jaquar car George, they never "break down", they only "malfunction". So in future, any prediction that turns out to be bunk will be referred to as a "malfunction" rather than "B.S." ! ( RHIP George, "Rank has it's priviledges" )

THE KING IS DEAD! LONG REIGN THE KING !

Congratulations and TTFN

( Glad we're outta here, eh Earl! )

EARL has your crown coming. He sent it to Kitco by UPS, so it could take awhile but I hear it's in rush mode anyways...

Ron: The men and corporations I am talking about make their
products in Mexico or China and sell them here, don't pay taxes or
benefits there and evade them here. I am talking about greedy
men, the John Malone of TCI type, making over a 100 million
while the corporation is losing money and both are not paying
taxes! I am talking about GM selling a subsidiary for a 3 billion
profit and no one paying taxes on the gain. Believe me Ron the
middle class without personal tax attorneys and without a
Washington lobby are the suckers.

The argument that we will pay higher prices just does not hold
water. In fact these super rich greedy men are pricing the small
Mom and Pop corporations out of business because Mom and Pop
pay their taxes! Please, lets fight for fairness in out tax system, this
means a system that does not need tax attorneys and accountants or
a person in Washington buying our representatives and senators.

Just back from our fourth straight day of ISP downages...Who would have thunk this,comming from the most unionized-socialized area in Canada...
To "mouth" bigger government and more union power,all one has to do is look at Cape Breton-Atlantic Canada and see what the "end result" is...
The work ethic ( ? ) is a JOKE and a once independant society has a hard time wiping their ( fat ) asses without the help of the government...I PLAY harder than the overwhelming majority work....that is the few who aren't into scams and UI schemes....yes, here's your UTOPIA WW....hahaha...If this is the future,God help us all....

To get a near-term low... do we need an Institutional Panic? The very boys & girls that tell you not to panic, will panic. Then you'll see a real decline:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger818.html

Just wondering here if UPS did cave into the union as is being reported, if this will send a signal to all unions and working folks to go after higher wages. So much for increased corporate profits...could this be the event we have long been waiting for to kick the gold bull in the hind quarter. I am surprised Wall Street is up today....

Mike Sheller--Here's an idea. Rather than a third computer, get this- http://www.geocities.com/TelevisionCity/7770/welcome.html Off to work now, back in about 12 hours. Auric...AWAY!!

GENERAL & URIS: Thanks to you both! Excuse my 1960's wordage, yes,
I'll watch out for what "the gunslingers" have done to these sectors.

Maybe I should rephrase the question thusly: What is the difference between central bank gold sales ( A ) and that of a gold mine ( B ) ? Why
should sales by A depress the gold market ( C ) and not the sales of B?
Or, a variation, does not A + B = C? If not, why? Should not the
supply equation include all sources at all times? I would think that the
possibility of A as a source would be included in available supply and therefore price on a continuous rather than a random basis.

Bob M ( 11:27 ) But it's only up 72.....XAU up .44...time to clean a couple of chimneys as fall is in the air....

Bernie: Does your post of 11:11 mean you are for the Flat Tax or a National Sales Tax? They make a lot more sense to me than what we have now. Read page 42 of most recent Forbes mag if you doubt me.

Ted: Have you ever lived anywhere you DID like?

Bernie: I agree we are suckers. The little guy started going down hill big time when the fed was brought in, in the dead of the night. Now we find ourselves in the position of having no one to bring up our children because our wives must work to pay our taxes. A working man cannot both support a family and pay all the families taxes. This issue is starting to boil across this country. One solution: ( besides a gov that takes say 20% instead of 50% of the gnp ) corporate taxes should raise as much revenue as personal taxes, as they did in the 1950s. Another solution, corporations should not be allowed to keep two sets of books, one for the shareholders and another for the irs. Can you imagine what would happen if you or I walked into an irs audit with two sets of books? The United States of America has been replaced with the United States of Corporate America.

Ted: Welcome back! Think you've got it bad with an on-again-off-again ISP? Up here, we have Ontario Hydro, North America's biggest ( and arguably poorest run? ) utility! Thank goodness we sold those O/H bonds. BTW, look at all those lovely gold arrowheads on EBN commodities this mornin...

Well Blonde, I have to say your post raised a smile. My wife says i'm a doom and gloomster and that people who stayed in equities through the 87 crash were still ahead by the year end. I changed into gold stocks over the last 3 months, and I have to say that she has been right ..so far.., I'm not really expecting gold to go anywhere fast but I see it as more safe, and a company with a good resource can provide a return on investment even if gold prices remain the same. It's just that if equities go bearish and I am just sitting with mutual funds I would feel pretty dumb myself.

And yes, if the Dow goes down, gold will not necessarily go up, at least that's the way it seemed to be in 87, and I think some other times. But if the market really crashes bad of course gold will go up.

This rumor of CB selling wouldn't be good if true, but it sounds suscipious. Just been a round of short selling and gold lease rates go to on of their highest levels of the year, and now a couple days later there is a rumor of CB selling, uh huh hmmm...,

Before the australian sales there were a few people around that heard the rumor in advance, and in one case reported on kitco the rumor included the detail that it was australia.

Can anyone offer opinions as to the probability that the recent rumor could be true or false?

re: Reify's comments to Sheller about his 8/18 article on gold-eagle.com,
( - an outstanding article, Mike Sheller; congratulations! ) and ark's "economics"::
The repeating cycles, small ones/short-term ones ... all the way to 'super-cycle scale' ( -let's hear it for Kondrateiff ) , are mapping out, once more, the "change in seasons". U.S. stocks, the U.S. dollar & bonds, are into their "fall/autumn", with a long "winter" to follow. Meanwhile, precious metals, mining stocks, and many other futures/commodities, including for. currencies, are at the dawn of a new 'spring', with a 'rip-roarin' "summer" for several years to come.
'Ark's salty-economics' of 'supply & supply' are flawless, no doubt. In addition, the insight and clues to timing, offered by good charts, reveal how the economics of supply & demand, shift their balance with each other, at important turning points, in investment markets. Mr. Ron Jett's charts may be helpful to both investors, and short-term traders, in adding to one's insight, in identifying clues to timing, particularly at this 'turning-point' for gold and silver. His charts are at http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Floor/3046/ . Here again, are a few of my comments on his charts; personally I believe charts#7 & #8, are most important, at this time:
Charts #1 & #2: The vulnerability of the U.S. stock market is
without question.
Chart #3: "London Gold" -- with these 'bullishly-constructive'
moving averages, this chart is self-explanatory.
Charts #4 & #5: The obvious, bullish DIVERGENCE, of the "RSI" with
the "XAU", from the April '97 lows, thru the July '97 lows; confirms that
the lows ( -bottoms ) for precious metals mining stocks, as a group, are in place. Rising values for gold & silver mining companies/stocks, are due.
Chart # 6: Silver is obviously, deeply oversold ( as is gold ) .

Charts #7 & #8: The bullish DIVERGENCE, of this "rate-of-change"
indicator-series, the 7/9/18 wk. 'roc', vs the weekly gold
price, from the Jan. '97 thru the July '97 lows; reveals that the
unique 'rhythm', or 'heart-beat' of gold, is signalling a strategic, and dramatic, reversal from the recent bearish trend, to a new bull-market 'chapter'. This indicator/'roc'-series, has identified
every important trading top, and bottom, for precious metals, for more than 20 years.

Chart #9. This XAU weekly chart is self-explanatory, and very
bullish.
Chart #10. This 'hyperbolic curve' chart, revealing that the DJIA is
at a point of "infinity", or "exhaustion"; offers substantial
evidence that bearish prospects for the U.S. stock market are gathering, and may be imminent. Both in the immediate future,
and for several years to come, the U.S. stock market is heading into a long bear market 'winter'.
Chart #11. Though not currently updated, this monthly XAU chart
reveals the rising bottoms for the gold mining shares, as a group; since 1986.
This information is believed to be reliable, though it cannot be
guaranteed, nor can any of the comments, or observations offered herein.
Sincerely,
David Blair Macrory, C.T.A.
San Diego

Bernie: Or, if you'll permit me to add to your last sentence, allowing Bubba to sell time-shares in the Lincoln bedroom. I think the average return on that investment was about ten to one. Bernie, do businesses tend to pass on their costs, including taxes, to customers or not? Yes or no? True or false? Of course, they do. As such, those taxes are really a hidden tax on the customer. There is no such thing as a corporation "paying" a tax. It's people, the middle class mostly. And that's airtight. You needn't worry about me opposing fairness in taxation, either. I live for the day I can get the taxman in the ring . . . which reminds me . . . off to the gym, to prepare for that glorious day!

REIFY: What can I say? Great minds think alike. DAVID: Thanks, David. Cycles R' Us.

It would appear that the great corporate downsizing that has been sold to us as an efficiency move, was in fact something else. This weeks barrons page 46 has an article of vast import. There will be lawsuits and vast effects on furture corporate earnings. On the face of it, it appears corporations may have stolen from one to two trillion dollars from their employees pensions. Is theft the engine driving our new found corporate profits?

For something a little different...

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/19/z0009_108.html

You can ever find Rhodium on the list...

TED -- I've gone from doing wood shingle siding to doing ( yuk! ) cellar door replacement. Why can't gold go up with the markets so that I could pay someone to do this! The great American dream... owning a money pit, er, ummm, I mean home.

Spot gold up $2.10 and no one cares. This has got to be a market bottom. Pessimism reigns supreme. Even with the WSJ stories on the Asian 'troubles', no one cares about the metals. The Dollar ( ? ) is seen as the safe haven, unless the Bundes Bank raises rates. Some safe haven!

Oh, well... Back to 'work' now! Rain in a couple of days.

Joberg gold index up 0.1%; TSE gold index up 0.5%; December gold up $1.80. Not too bad with the Dow up 65 points.

Someone said they were surprised that Wall Street rallied today. Given the overnight strength in Europe I wasn't surprised at all. Dow probably will climb to 8000 area before turning down again.

Most stocks are priced very richly, but there are a few quality issues that still are cheap because of problems peculiar to the companies in question. Firms like Dow Jones and Company and Reader's Digest, both of which have moved very little in this bull and both of which have been accumulated by Michael Price. When the right things are done at these firms, they will rise sharply even if the overall market is headed much lower. But situations like these are few and far between.

I continue to find the excellent gold stock action very encouraging.

Gold has a dual role one as an industrial/consumer commodity and the other as a store of value ( money ) . Often the two roles combine as in the Indian subcontinents view of gold as jewellry and a secure ( time proven ) store of value or global currency

Historically, CBs hold gold as a reserve currency - one that is globally recognized in additional to other global currency reserves. This practice has been challenged during the past 15 yrs. and particularly this past year as CBs have announced sales of gold in favour of holding paper currencies and, especially, paper debt securities of G7 nations with particular emphasis on US govt debt securities.

When a CB buys or sells gold it is perceived by the market as a purchase or sale of money. When CBs buy gold ( money ) they reduce the supply of gold in the market and the price tends to rise. Conversely, when CBs sell gold ( money ) they increase the supply of money and its value tends to decline.

This is an oversimplification of the demand and supply for gold but as long as you view CB activity - buying and selling - as an acquisition or disposal of money you can see how this would add a more speculative component to the price of gold.

Cheers.

I give the paper market today to go up then it will be down, down & down for Wednesday, Thursday & Friday respectively. Everything looks rather fluffy today in the markets--how quickly the tide can turn, especially if gold and silver are involved.

There may have been a chunk of gold sold last Friday by a CB that eventually got noticed by the professional gold shorts after the fact and after COMEX closed - hence, the material price drop yesterday morning.
This would be corroborated by the 50 basis drop in the one month lease rate over the last two days. It has been reasoned elsewhere that one month leases are more geared toward short sellers while longer term leases are favoured ( BTW, that's Canadian for "favored" ) toward producers and commercials. If you think about the recent gold market events involving CBs a large sale of gold would need to be proceeded by a large loan of physical by a broker/dealer. After the sale was done and absorbed by the market the broker would buy physical gold from the CB with cash proceeds to close-out the leases with the other CBs ( including the actual seller CB ) . In this way it would appear to keep the lid on insider information leaks of any impending large gold sale by any "one" particular CB. The OZ ( RBAustralia ) backlash may have caused other CBs to ponder the mechanics of selling gold so not to depress the price before the fact and to cause unecessary publicity for the spin masters to exploit. Make sense ?

Cheers.

If we may agree that there was a CB sale last week and still no news it would appear ( by deduction ) that CBs are no longer willing scapegoats for the price of gold. The golden shorts have spun each CB sale in past into a gold obituary. The result is a Gold Bear market. It is not in the CBs interest to have gold price depressed since they own the largest single supply of marketable gold. If this speculation is accurate it may spell the beginning of the end for any dramatic price drops stimulated by spin doctors exploiting a CBs sale of gold. The gold sale may eventually show-up in dry statistical documents sometime after the sale has been forgotten by the market - if not by the shorts.

Cheers.

Anybody got any comment on the non-activity/performance of the XAU and HUI today in the face of somewhat higher gold and stox?

Commodity Day Traders - I can barely believe what I see in the Silver chart. After such violent turbulence in Silver in the last week or so Sliver has settled into a 'tight' range. It's almost safe to bet that putting a buy in at 4.54 1/2 and/or a sell in at 4.46 1/2 is the thing to do. If filled one could then institute 'tight' stops at about 4-5 cents above or below entry points. Comments?

Ouchhh! I picked up a sliver from my keyboard!

Feds keep rates. No change.

Abby Cohen of Goldman Sachs changes direction. A good article
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970820/feature/feature1.html

Austria refuses to hand over gold to Holocaust victims


VIENNA, Aug 19 ( AFP ) - Austria will not hand over gold which
was returned to Austria by the Allied troops after World War II to
Holocaust survivors, a Foreign Affairs official said Tuesday.
"This gold belongs to the reserves of the Central Bank ( of
Austria ) which has nothing to do with the Holocaust," spokesperson
for the ministry Florian Krenkel said Tuesday.
His remarks follows last Friday's call by Rabbi Marvin Hier,
Director of the Simon Wiesenthal Centre in Los Angeles, for Austria
to hand over to the survivors of the Holocaust riches she acquired
during or after the war.
In March 1938, immediately after Austria was annexed by Germany,
78,267 tons of gold reserves from the Austrian Central Bank were
transferred by the Nazis to the German Central Bank.
Following the end of the war, the Allies permitted Austria, and
nine other European countries, to have 65 percent of the gold which
was pillaged from their reserves returned to them.
Vienna received 50,181 tons of gold from the "tripartite
commission", created by France, the United States and Great Britain,
to oversee the return of this gold.
The remaining stocks of gold, valued at some 70 million dollars,
is still kept in the United States and London.
The Austrian government stated in June last year that it was
favourable that the remaining stocks should be given to the
survivors of the Holocaust, on condition that the nine countries
were all in agreement.
"Austria's position has not changed since," Krenkel said on
Tuesday.

Singapore regional economist forecast Thai crisis, & Thai Govt hates him.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970820/world/world1.html

I would like to thank all, that have shared their insight, and personal
thoughts. Being wrong about predictions, is a hazard experienced by those
willing to share. I thank you, and remind you of the adage: "Better to be
a year early, then, to be a day late" I add this material, for reference.

Journalism History *Newsworkers*
What most of us know about media history begins and ends with
*Citizen Kane*

Even newsworkers in the novels who made fairly decent wages were concern-
ed with the increasing costs of American life. In Splendor, a journalist
who earned $35 a week was startled to discover that his salary,"which
would ten years before have seemed to [him] like opulence," was no
longer enough to support his family ( B.Williams 1928,367 ) This assessment
was not surprising given that researchers have determined that in the
1920's, families earning less than $3,000 per year were unable to save
any money ( Meltzer 1969,10 )

However, fictional newsworkers, like other workers, continually faced
pressures of twentieth-century capitalism, which urged them to consume
an ever-increasing number of products. According to historian Daniel
Bell ( 1976 ) , in the 1920s, technological advances, coupled with assembly-
line mass production, marketing, and installment buying, produced a
cultural transformation in American society.

An increased availability of luxury goods, continually redefined as
necessities, encouraged the rise of a consumption society that emphasized
spending and material possessions and undermined " the traditional value
system with its emphasis on thrift, frugality, self control and impulse
renunciation" ( 65 ) .

Bombarded with advertising messages, fictional newsworkers were often
coaxed into buying products they could not afford. Like many Americans,
reporters in these novels replaced a purchasing philosophy of only
buying what could be paid for in cash with the strategy of " a dollar
down and a dollar forever" ( Meltzer 1969,10 ) , and they often borrowed
money to finance their acquisitions. Yet. these reporters tended to panic
when their level of debt became unmanageable; a few less stable workers
had breakdowns, some took extra jobs or tried freelance writing, and
others, like the newsworker in "The Great American Novel," gave up
reporting for the relative economic security of the copy desk ( Davis 1938 )

The work routine of journalists was commonly depicted as drudgery; novels
from this period insisted: " The work will ask everything of you. It will
suck you dry, and it will give you very little in return" ( Bent 1932,38 )

In "Success", a thirty-year-old veteran reporter explained that although
it was a sense of adventure and change that kept many reporters going, an
underlying sense of tedium often pervaded their lives. He suggested that
"the monotony of seeing things by glimpses, of never really completing a
job, of being inside important things, but never of them " was what
ultimately demoralized most newsworkers ( Adams 1921, 309-10 )

Journalists were frequently considered expendable products, and the
process of indoctrinating new reporters included lessons that instilled
a sense of unimportance, worthlessness, and replaceability.

This gaUge follows gold performance in relation to various events such as devaluations and political mud slinging.
Everytime spicy rumors about our illustrious leader or a major political party is is leaked, gold goes up $0.50, after the rumor fades, gold drops $5 within a weeks time.
For devaluations, gold often sputters after making $3 up move; then in the midst of the remedies for the sickness, gold drops about $10 with a few days time.
So is gold today. Some call it manipulation. Hopefully the future is different.

Eldorado, re. your recent question/post about lackluster/quiet XAU, when gold is up, etc. :
I check a "Yahoo" 'bookmark' daily, that ( I selected ) is a listing of the daily market action/quotes ( delayed ) , plus charts ( 3 & 6 mo.; & 1, 2, & 5 yr, ) ; of 24 individual gold/silver mining shares -- my selection. The XAU, and the majority consensus of these issues/stocks/chart-patterns, confirm that the accumulation of gold shares by 'strong/smart money' continues unabated. We are on the 'launching pad'...the count-down is already underway.... lift-off is very close.
Also, may I suggest Mr. Ron Jett's charts at http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Floor/3046/ ... I've previously offered my "2-cents'-worth", my comments/observations/opinions, on these very timely, valuable charts, in several kitco discussion-grp. posts, including 8/18/97 @ 01:32, and 8/18/97 @ 20:10, and 8/19/97 post/entry, earlier today, an hour or 2 ago. Hope this is helpful. If you or anyone else, would like more info./to discuss this further, I am eager to e-mail/dialogue with you. Sincerely, David Blair Macrory, San Diego.

David -- Thanks for the response. Actually, my question refers more to the next day or two. I think time is close at hand too, at least relatively so. But we all know the volumes that speaks! Strong hands can and do hold for months before things break loose. I'm simply asking for opinions of what todays numbers/action in them might suggest for the next couple days. Thanks.

Panda ( 13:15 ) : Ain't carpentry fun????....XAU droppin...down .35...Eldorado: Since we've started a pattern of Friday sell-offs in the Dow maybe late Thursday would be a good time to jump into Gold shares-gold...can't come up with a better guess....Dow up 66....XAU down .85 ( that was fast or I type real sloooow.. )

Bob: Your 13:56 and 1349 posts present a reasonable case for what happened yesterday. While I was expecting crises management I certainly was not expecting the extent to which gold dropped yesterday...

Having said that, the shorts are more extended than ever...

It's nice to see the gold stocks getting secure relative to bullion. From March to August, with the Bre-X influence and the Australia thang, gold stocks took a heavy beating ( in absolute terms as well as RTB ( relative-to-bullion ) ) from which, perhaps, they're slowly bouncing, or rather ratcheting, back.

Looks like XAU wants to test the support area of 98 ( previously was resistence ) and also again test the uptrend line which started on July 7th. Nothing comes easy. : )

kiwi - The terrible horrors of WW11 aside, there seems to be a terrible, ( yet all too common these days, ) 'politically correct', yet fundamentally wrong, focus on the news item that you quote. If the gold was in a central bank in 1938, the gold belongs to that country.
( ..."In March 1938, immediately after Austria was annexed by
Germany,
78,267 tons of gold reserves from the Austrian Central Bank were
transferred by the Nazis to the German Central Bank.
Following the end of the war, the Allies permitted Austria, and
nine other European countries, to have 65 percent of the gold
which
was pillaged from their reserves returned to them.
Vienna received 50,181 tons of gold from the "tripartite
commission", created by France, the United States and Great
Britain,
to oversee the return of this gold. " ...
If, in a magnanimous gesture, Austria tries to sway 8 other countries to give up some residue, to compensate a sorely agrieved party, and is subsequently rebuffed by those other countries, who is to blame, - Austria? - I think not!
BTW - This is a good juncture to remind ourselves that the sound of music was not just another frivolous 'musical' of the 50's-60's, but required viewing for all citizens of the world. I'm sure that that is something that all of us here can make an agreement on - even with our buddy WW!

Byron -- I said yesterday that I expected to go long in gold today. Well, I didn't. The action I expected did not materialize. Ted. You may be right for Thursday. That's the day I'd have to pick next also.

I'm either typing faster these days, or the 'Dry' is catching up. ( As Selby has tried to point out ) . I'm now no longer a moonstar, nor a moonstep, but, as my last post points out a monstar. If this keeps up y'all will have to keep your children/and/or grandchildren locked inside as I will transmutate into a monster!

Looks like the Feds may be preparing to increase the supply of money by buying securities in the open market thus building up the commercial bank reserves. They could feasibly add 1.35 billion without increasing the Debt.


WASHINGTON, Aug 19 ( Reuter ) - The Treasury Department announced on Tuesday that it will sell $16 billion of three- and
six-month bills on Aug 25. It will result in a paydown of about $1.35 billion on the national debt as $17.348 billion of bills are
maturing.

Amounts sold to the Federal Reserve for its own accounts will be shown as additions to the public offering.

The bills will settle on Aug 28. The three-month bills mature on Nov 28 and the six-month bills mature on Feb 26, 1998.

The CUSIP for the three-month bills is 9127945V2 and for the six-month bills is 9127946F6.

cql.v is the best buy trading at $2.00 all time high is $9.00 they have the goods
and should take a good run again in the fall

I used to receive preapproved credit card applications, ad nauseum, in the US Mail. Now I receive preapproved home equity loan applications by US Mail. I wonder how much easy money is converted to debt and how much is placed in the stock and bond markets ? Or is home equity debt replacing credit card debt ? I presume it's mostly the latter.

Any perception of the above vices on the part of management are not likely to be well received by the market, as action in one Canadian junior this afternoon will attest.

Eldorado & Byron, et al: the XAU, when viewed on a 5 year chart, reveals that the "100" level/value, is a powerful line of "energy", if you will; a "primary harmonic", as I like to call them ... or a turning-point, a 'fulcrum'. The 100 level was a support-line, in the 3rd. qtr '93, & 1st qtr. '95; a point of 'break-thru' in April, '93; and then again a 'break-down' point, in the 1st & 2nd qtr. of '97. Since this 100 level/line is so important, to the XAU, and to investors/traders, and the entire 'world of the market-place', it is likely that such a "turning-point", a powerful line/level of 'harmonic frequency', might be cause for a temporary delay or hesitation, in the unfolding, accelerating advance, of the new bull market, in gold. For shortest-term, day to day clues, I'd look at these factors, criteria:
a. ) platinum & paladium action;
b. ) sharp price jumps in 'limited-float' ( thus highly leveraged ) mining shares, such as ASA;
c. ) sharply increasing volume, & price, on strategic stocks, like ABX, CDE, HM, NEM, & PDG;
d. ) short-term over-bought/over-sold technical timing indicators, such as MACD, RSI, and esp. Stochastics, as provided by numerous software charting services, including Omega SuperCharts. Watch for rising lows/bottoms, on these indicators, regardless of gold, or XAU, values/prices.
Sincerely hope this is helpful; let me know if you need more info.,
David Blair Macrory
San Diego

Weakness in XAU today reflects the fact that Lehman Brothers downgraded PDG and ABX from outperform to neutral.

One caveat to my posted thoughts on positionings. I always reserve the right to change my mind at a moments notice, depending on the action taking place in the market! Only the market and maybe some powers that be, 'know' where it's going from one minute to the next!

Today major credit card orgs announced they are now ( at last ) ready for cards that expire after 12/31/99. A relatively simple job, done late. Does this not bode ill for the _complex_ fixes that _have_ to be done on time???

And why is my cousin Lou going to Harvard at age 48? After having graduated from Yale at age 44? And where is the joke of the day, anyway? And what's going on in gold - I'm paying good money for this site! Well, actually, no money, but I have become accustomed to a certain entertaining and invigorating level of discussion. If I am ever deprived of that, who can I sue?

And speaking of my cousin Lou, what about this Rolling Stones tour - who's sponsoring this thing, Geritol? Is this the 1997 Depends Tour, or what? We've got four ex-presidents younger than those guys. When Mic Jagger sings "I can't get no satisfaction" three nurses are going to run up with Metamucil. Brown sugar - yeah, on your applesauce, old man. Hey, nothing against old guys - I am one. Nothing against young guys, either, but those ones that live in their own little youth world and have written me off as devoid of worthwhile knowledge just because I don't live in there with them - they bother me. I tell ya. The Stones, heros of our culture, the embodiment of hedonism, destroying kids with raunchy songs and getting richly rewarded, even - incredibly - revered for it. ???? A museum for Rock and Roll? Is this insane, or what? How is a society that values rock and roll going to value gold? And what about these buzzards - like me - blabbing away on the Internet when they should be doing their job and writing computer software? Do we really deserve a $500 per child tax credit? And when are those hardcore conservatives ( and I am one ) going to give Bill Clinton a little credit for this religion in government offices bill? Let's admit it, the guy is complex.

As proof of my own deep respect for British musical culture, the first person to name the Rolling Stones song that mentions "Cousin Lou" - without looking it up on the Internet! - gets a Keith Richards-autographed raised toilet seat.

BOB: Your take on the CB sale/lease rate interaction makes a lot of sense to me.

Byron: Apparently the XAU owed some of its recent strength to earlier Lehman Brothers upgrades of PDG and ABX. Now they have downgraded and that source of support has been removed for the time being. I suspect they will upgrade again before long.

David: Thanks for the info. I take it you feel gold is about to go to the "moon" if we break 100 with conviction. ...Now if I only knew what it was going to do tomorrow. : ) ...I'm personally expecting a nice break upwards once we finish this short term pullback from the recent high of 103+. Hopefully by the end of this week, maybe. I reserve the right to be wrong, but I also reserve the right to be right!!!

George Cole: My "waves" don't know the difference between the Lehman Brothers or the Marx Brothers. ( ^,^ )

Re: your 15:58 - Exactly! That is the exact message that I have been trying to teach my various comodity salespeople over the years. They invariably say things like 'but I thought you wanted to do such and such, not such and such.' Can't live with 'em, can't live without 'em. No offense meant to the intelligent of ALL sexes who occasionally live here! :- )

Mooney: re: 2's post as a lurker at 16:15. The ball is in your court!... Speaking of caffeine... I need a re-boot. Out of here. ~poof~.

Note that two of the SA golds traded in the US scored VERY BIG gains today. This is where the real action will be when gold gets its gander up.



South African Stocks Traded on U.S. Exchanges
Updated as of: Aug 19, 1997 @ 4:29 pm ET

Symbol
Company Name
Last
Change
%Change
High
Low
Volume
ASA
ASA Limited
30 1/8
+0 1/16
+0.2
30 1/4
30 1/16
39.5K
ANGLY
Anglo American Corporation of S. Africa
53 3/4
-0 1/8
-0.2
53 3/4
53 3/8
5.10K
AAGIY
Anglo American Gold Investment Comp.
5 5/8
-0 1/8
-2.2
5 3/4
5 5/8
17.0K
BLYDY
Blyvootuitzicht Gold Mining Co. Ltd.
1 3/8
+0 1/8
+10.0
1 3/8
1 3/16
62.6K
DBRSY
DeBeers Consolidated Mines
32 1/4
uchg
0.0
32 1/4
32
236K
DRFNY
Driefontein Consolidated, Ltd.
7 9/16
uchg
0.0
7 3/4
7 1/2
108K
DROOY
Durban R. Deep
2 5/16
uchg
0.0
2 3/8
2 7/32
46.3K
FSCNY
Free State Consolidated Gold Mining Co
5
+0 1/8
+2.6
5 3/32
4 7/8
52.2K
GLDFY
Gold Fields of South Africa Limited
20 1/8
-0 1/4
-1.2
20 1/4
20 1/8
4.00K
HGMCY
Harmony Gold Mining
4 7/8
+0 3/8
+8.3
4 7/8
4 1/2
2.00K
HSVLY
Highveld Steel and Vanadium Corp.
3 7/8
-0 3/8
-8.8
3 7/8
3 7/8
300
KLOFY
Kloof Gold Mining Co., Ltd.
5 9/16
+0 1/16
+1.1
5 11/16
5 9/16
1.90K
SASOY
Sasol Ltd.
12 11/16
+0 1/16
+0.5
12 11/16
12 11/16
14.7K
SGOLY
St. Helena Gold Mines Limited
3 7/8
+0 1/8
+3.3
3 7/8
3 5/8
900
VAALY
Vaal Reefs Exploration and Mining Co.
5 1/16
+0 1/16
+1.3
5 1/16
5
21.7K
WDEPY
Western Deep Levels Ltd.
24 3/8
-0 1/32
-0.1
24 3/8
24 3/8
400
OKP
O'Okiep Copper Co. Ltd.
6 3/4
+0 1/4
+3.8
6 3/4
6 5/8
1.00K


All content copyright  1997 Data Broadcasting Corporation. Updated as of: Aug 19, 1997 @ 4:29 pm ET

Major reversal coming sometime tomorrow in stocks, bonds, xau, imho

If the Hang Seng takes another big hit tonight,Wall Street could get spooked.....din din time....BBL dudes....

Byron - AMAZINGLY enough I was in the process of composing yet another post about my minor misspelling problems today, including some humour about commodity brokers and commodes! When I saw your post regarding 2., AND HIS ( or her ) post referring to commodes, ( just as I was about to mention the same, I couldn't believe the timing. MUST BE THE FULL MOON! No, I can't argue with anything he ( or she ) says. D'accord!

re: SA Golds, to George Cole, et al: The easy way to watch, take the pulse of, get clues from, the So. African gold stocks, is to simply watch ASA, on the NYSE. This closed end fund ... ( as many of you know ) , has a very small float, thus it is highly leveraged. The "winds of change", will "whip it into a frenzy" of bullish activity, with sharply higher share prices, on increased, &/or sustained volume, in the trading period just ahead. This is your best, and simplest "pulse" on using the SA Stocks, as a 'clue' to the unfolding bull market in metals. ( See my kitco post of 8/19/97, 15:57. ) In addition to the So. Africans, there are numerous other short-term clues, indicators.
Sincerely,
David Blair Macrory, C.T.A.
San Diego

In the old days the market ran ahead of itself ( any market ) and there was a correction to adjust the values to financial ratio norms - usually after a fit of investor enthusiasm supported by colour commentary generously offered by the brokerage industry.

After a correction ( in the old days ) the market would recover only
"after" stocks proved worthy of higher valuations in context of normal economic conditions and corporate results and future expectations.

Now it appears that investors would only be satisfied with a technical correction - that is when the DOW declines by a certain percentage - then they would be prepared to push the market to new highs irrespective of earnings, dividends, or 'rational' expectations.

We had a brief correction late March-April and then the market - lead by the techs - zoomed on news of good earnings as the DOW, S+P, and NASDQ moved through record weekly highs until GSC's August top call two weeks ago.

Gleaning the BULL market spin journalism the recent set-back in DOW off 8300 is looked at as a breather or psychological relief only to be used as a benchmark or springboard to justify a new Bull leg.

The investment management community spin is that we are in a new era. They suggest the old rules don't work. Reported commentary suggest that investors don't care about financial ratios. The spin doctors, following CB gold slaes, convinced the world that Gold is now dead as a financial asset.

It reminds me about the Nikkei ( Topix ) at its 1989 top at 40,000 and 250x PE ratios. Japanese investors were convinced that the Japanese stock market was guaranteed by the Japanese govt to continue to rise in value.

Anything is possible but history shows that good stories and parties are great while they last. When someone yells fire a stampede errupts and people die under the weight of the rush for survival toward the door.

I have been wrong a few times in guessing when gold would recover or stox would decline ( I'm a lossy timer ) . I have held my ground and expect ( as in past difficult markets ) that fundamentals will return to fairly price gold in the absence of excessive short price management.
My patience will either be rewarded in due course or we really are in a new era.

Cheers

Cheers

Bruce you asked for the sources of my post @ 17:53
Regarding, my interest in Canadian history.

The reference is taken from these:
John Rastell 1519; and R. Thorne, 1527 cit. J.A Williamson:
Voyages of the Cabots, L. 1929.

Discovery of Canada, L.J. Burpee, 1944

New Found World, H. Lamb, NY, 1955

Les Francais en Amerique, A Julien

A Memoir of J. Cartier, J. P. Baxter, NY, 1906

Thanks for asking, take care.

P&F charts can be very handy, especially for picking fundamental

changes in direction. Right now, on a P&F chart, Gold is a "no

brainer", with a beautiful trading range established between $US 318-330.

I have just updated my $A - $US Gold chart comparison at

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/twogold.html

Both charts are progressing as they have in the past, with

the $A price far closer to breaking out of its post-1996 downtrend

than is the $US price.

The potential problem is that we're dealing with GOLD here, the

"political metal". $A Gold was all set to take off at the start

of July, just before the now infamous RBA announcement.

As I see it, and from these charts, all that is required now is

patience. The best long-term outcome would be if $US Gold broke

through the BOTTOM of this trading range. If it did that, there

would very likely be a sharp fall, quite possibly below $US 300.

I don't know about all you Kitcoites out there, but I love a bargain!

Bill, I've been getting bargins in the gold market for three years and there has always been someone who cheers gold going even lower because "I just love bargins."

Bill Buckler -- I can buy that! Actually, I will! It would be nice if it would simply get it over with though! As you say, patience.

I'm now going to use my negative predicting power. Last Friday I said that the Dow was going to 7100 by friday; now I'm saying that since the Dow broke 7860 on the upside the market is going to soar back to 8300 and probably continue upwards. I hereby dare the market to prove me wrong

BOB: The widespread "new era" talk in the financial markets suggests that stocks will go down BIG TIME when this illusion is shattered. A key facet of this "new era" -- the huge foreign appetite for treasuries -- has already ended.

To be sure this is a genuine new era technologically. But we have had many such new eras before with such inventions as the auto, electricity radio, TV, telephones, airplanes, railroads, etc. But none of these engendered a perpetual bull market.

The overwhelming probability is that this bull has peaked. The Dow probably will rally back to 8000 or so before starting a new move down to 7500 or lower. But no crash or selling climax before October, and possibly not until early 1998. And Dow 4000-5000 should be the bottom. Don't wait for Dow 300 to get back in!

George, It travelled many miles, through wind and snow, to get to your destination but low and behold, your crown has arrived !

Wear it in good health !

TTFN

To Techkies:

Avidtrader site has recently updated its homepage, etc. For a short time only they now have an Interactive Charting option which allows the drawing of your own trendline, and the plotting of technical indicators, etc. Apparently no registration is required to use this service. the URL is http://avidtrader.com Click on interactive charting. Lots of technical goodies. : )

FONT and UPS:

Thanks guys! But why no yellow in the crown? Looks like silver and jewels, but no gold.

Bill Buckler: Gold will continue to move in direct opposition to the US. stock market. If the market has indeed peaked, as I think it has, then gold has seen its worst levels. But if the US. stock market stages a final run to significant new highs, then the yellow probably will fall beneath the early July low of $313.

George, it's F "R" ONT not FONT and the GOLD is reserved for "EMPERIORS" Only! Look, if the queen of England doesn't complain who the hell is going to mention it to her that there's no Gold! ( :- ) )

TTFN

Just for the record the nazis did not steal 78,267 TONS of gold from anyone, that much gold did not exist world-wide then. It is probably 78,267 kilos.

Blonde: You wrote: "Earl, your wife seems to be interested in real estate. Now there's a sector thats been perking along." ..... Somewhat erroneously, I might add. Though, through no fault of your own.

In point of fact my esposa is only into irritation. Real estate is merely her present vehicle.

bw; I'm puzzled with the numbers slung around in the article also. The remaining 35% is about 28,000 tons which is quoted at 70 million dollars value....$2,500 per ton approximately!!?. I picked the article up on clari.biz.industry.banking and it orignates from ( AFP ) , unaltered.
Just as curiosity how much Gold is there in the World...does anybody really know?

"Louisiana law just fine by me"
BY: Paul Jackson/Calgary Sun.

"Louisiana, now that's my kind of state, and my kind of justice, too."
"Under a new law, if someone tries to steal your car and you pull out a
gun and shoot the low-life thief dead, no charges whatsoever will be
pressed against you. You'll get off scot-free."

"This is a far cry from Canada, where, if someone breaks into your home
and you try to defend your property and your family, you'll be charged
with assault"

http://www.canoe.ca/CalgarySun/jackson.html

In my technical charting, I've noted the DOW and the S&P 500 both reflecting a complex Head & Shoulders pattern. I will describe in words what I am seeing on my DOW chart, and my rough projections as to how the prices will move in this pattern.

This pattern exhibits a major Left Shoulder peaking at about 7100 in late Feb '97 or early Mar '97, dropping to a neckline at around 6300 in early April '97, then the strong climb up to peak at the Head we just went through near the end of July early August.

On the climb up to the Head a minor Left Shoulder was formed around 7900 in June '97. Friday's huge drop took us back to the minor Neckline, and we are now experiencing the forming of the minor Right Shoulder. I expect it to peak out by about the first week of September at roughly 8050. Prices should then fall to and through the minor Neckline.

The fall will continue until resistance is hit at around 7400. Sideways movement will occur for a short period ( about 1.5 months ) then the drop will continue, reflecting the reversal of the long strong climb up the Head. I expect it will fall to 7250 where a Regression Line will offer support for a time, then it will fall again until it reaches the major Neckline at around 6500.

It should then rally for the major Right Shoulder, up to around 7100 by mid Jan '98, then drop again to the major Neckline and after a brief hesitation fall through it. The distance from major Neckline to Head being around 1889 pts, once the major Neckline is pierced around the middle of March '98 near a price of 6635, the decline should continue gradually until at least 4746. This would complete the major Head & Shoulders pattern, and we could then see a Rally to more strength.

It is my belief that Gold prices will essentially reflect the opposite movement to the stock market. I hope so anyway, as I've already seen its bottom and have purchased a few shares.

I'd add a URL to my chart, but I don't have one available yet. I don't have the chart with me on this system, so I can't add it to my message at this time. Maybe later.

Robert

Goldbug23...There are many ways you can achieve tax fairness the
real problem is getting our representitives to vote for a fair system.
And that simply means we must tell them to vote for a for a system
that shows no favorites, has no loop holes.

Here is one simple plan. Eliminate all and I mean all deductions,
credits, subsidies, exemptions for both individuals and corporations.
All income is taxed. I mean all money and value recieved, this
includes, pensions, dividends, and interest, everything will be
taxed. Reduce each current tax rate bracket by the same
percentage until you get the same federal revenue that is projected
for fiscal 1998.

The IRS could then switch its collection forces to concentrate on the
underground economy the drug, cash and barter folks; we all know
many are paying zero or a faction of the tax they should be paying.

We have to tell Washington to change the syystem!

George Cole: Thanks for that post on the SA golds. Last nite I was looking at charts and wishing I had a ready reference list of some them. You just provided same. ........ Now I want you to say the following: "Blyvootuitzicht Gold Mining Co. Ltd. " ......... three times real fast!!
.........:- ) ) ) .... Bet John Disney can't either.

Cheers.

bw....I agree with everything you said, very well put, especially
about wives working to make ends meet. It is a disgrace that our
kids have suffered for the last decade because of a few greedy men
and their corporations.

The only way to change the situation is to let Washington know we
want a fair tax system without loop holes. Like you said the system
is in place, we can not eliminate it, we must change it.

Robert - Re: Head & shoulders top. - At what point do you admit that you are wrong. ie - A daily close above ???

Earl' You can get quotes on SA stocks traded in the US. at

http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/SOAFRAt.html?source=core/dbc

Front: My apologies sir for the misspelling. I do hope to be able to nominate someone for the emperor title before year end.

George Cole ( 16:22 ) Do you know at what time today Lehman Brothers down-graded ABX and PDG???....

George Cole ( Aug 19 17:50 ) Your may be right, George, but I would prefer to wait for technical confirmation on both the US markets and gold. I am not so sanguine that gold will automatically rise if and when the market tanks. It "should", but if gold watchers have learned anything, it is that the gold price does not always do what it "should" do.

Bernie: Your proposal makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. If you remove the element of obfuscation, convolution and stupidity from the tax code; what on earth will the politicoes have to sell? Recognize that they only have their influence to sell. Absent that and they have nothing whatever. .... It is their way of keeping the money rolling in. ... and not into the treasury either. Into their own damn pockets.

Yes indeed. Always vote for the man promising fairness. .... Or better yet, refuse to vote in any fashion. Why encourage the bastards. Refusing to vote is, after all, a vote ( for none of the above ) . In a manner of speaking.

6pak: As usual, I love your stuff. The article from Calgary vis a vis Looziana was an eye opener. You Canadians have been suffering from an excess of civility for far too long. It's high time that came to an abrupt halt. It's imperative that you finally begin to follow the fine example set here in the 'colonies' where we have never forgotten our wild and wooly past. At least as it has been portrayed in the movies.

Imagine Canada today, if it had the same proud and 'honorable' tradition of recasting history each Saturday afternoon, on the silver screen. If such were the case, I could easily imagine the US and Canada enjoying complete reciprocity on matters such as concealed weapons permits and the right to pack 'heat' on your person. ... generically speaking.

Ted: Here are more details on Lehman. They do not believe gold prices will go up much for awhile; hence their downgrade. PDG and ABX were up a bit before the news hit this morning.



Tuesday August 19 10:07 AM EDT

RESEARCH ALERT - Lehman cuts two gold stocks

NEW YORK, Aug 19 ( Reuter ) - Lehman Brothers said analyst Peter Ward downgraded Barrick Gold Corp ( ABX.TO ) ( ABX )
and Placer Dome Inc ( PDG.TO ) ( PDG ) to neutral from outperform.

said in report that believes gold equities in general are discounting a spot gold price significantly higher than current
levels.
said maintains view that fear of future central bank selling will continue to weigh on the gold market.
said further outperformance of these stocks will have to be correlated with a significant improvement in gold price.
In U.S. trade, Barrick Gold rose 3/16 to 23-11/16 and Placer Dome rose 1/16 to 17-5/8.

Bill Buckler: I am not saying that gold must surge the same day the US stock market tanks. But I do say that once the major stock trend changes from bull to bear, the major gold trend will shift from bear to bull. The Dow probably will have to drop MORE than 10% before the consensus will accept the idea of a trend change.

Silver seems to be primed for a move. A move below 4.50 ( Sept ) breaks it. A move above 4.53 IMHO makes it. A move above its current highs just below 4.55 should be propelling. If it doesn't respond in that manner to 4.55, consider there being a lot more sellers at that point than buyers.

``Gold is very, very tight in the London market at present,'' Merrill Lynch analyst Ted Arnold said in a report.

``There is very heavy borrowing going on which could represent producer selling or it could represent a bullion house
borrowing in gold ahead of selling it out for a central bank,'' he said.

``Or it could represent a really tight physical supply shortage in the near term given the strong physical offtake that we have seen
in recent months in Asia, India and the Middle East.''
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/19/y0023_z00_27.html

Ron...to answer your question, yes corporations do TRY to pass on
all expenses including taxes. It is not an automatic process. There
is a very important word you are missing, competition. The market
decides if it wants the corporation's products with the tax or any other
expense included. Let the market place decide, not who has the
best tax attorney or the best Washington inside track.

Above all, let the tax structure be fair! Mom and Pop corporation
makes a widget, they pay their taxes and include this cost in their
widgets. Greedy men Corporation X makes the same widget, does
not pay taxes and undersells Mom and Pop. Ron, I am talking
about tax fairness, not whether there should or should not be a
corporate income tax. There is a corporate income tax, there is
very little we can do about it, we should be able to change it so that it is at least fair.

6pak -- Don't be too concerned with the differences between here and there. The 'equalizers' of the NWO are out in force. There aim is to set it all 'right'. Apparently, they've been able to just do more of it up there faster. Seemingly, Austalia too. Hell, LOTS of countries! People simply need to remember their God given rights and defend the hell out of them! Governments didn't give them to us. Therefore, they can't take them unless WE hand them over! Just say no. Say it with extreme meaning! When we do not say 'no', we are no better off than those who were sold to be plantation slaves. Actually, worse, because it is a case of selling ourselves and our posterity! Knashing of teeth anyone?

"Don't panic" was the overwhelming view of
brokers and fund managers, although their
comments were moderated by concern about Wall
Street and continued speculation on the Hong Kong
dollar.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970820013232046?=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=3489

Currencies battered
again

BARRY PORTER in Singapore and Agencies
Despite a string of new measures intended to
strengthen their economies, Southeast Asian
countries saw their currencies slide further
yesterday, with the Thai baht and Indonesian rupiah
hitting new intra-day lows.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970820005140014?=mar&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=3378

Bernie: You are rapidly assuming a WW posture. How on earth, do you propose to change that which is instituted by God and immutable by man? My goodness. This is a democracy and as such it is ruled in a fashion determined by those able to buy the votes.

The platform of the 'Sitzmeisters' is determined by the direction of the money flow and unless the money flow has your name on it, the situation will not change. ....... "Mr. Smith goes to Washington" was a great movie for 'babes in arms' and civics 101, not for this real world.

Earl....I implore you to stay with the system, especially on the tax
fairness issue. Find your representative and senators numbers and
send them a fax!

His very appearance before the press suggested that the crisis of
confidence in the country's financial institutions was more serious
than even the pessimists believed.

"I am appearing at this conference to assure the public that as the
vice-chairman and a major shareholder of [Maha Thanakit] . . . I
will take the responsibility for the company's clients," were his
first words for public consumption.
http://www.bangkokpost.net/today/1908_busi01.html

I vote for the central bank sale option.

Dow/Gold Ratio 24.47

Tell us more. Why?

Asian currencies are linked by a tightrope and
when one falls, it pulls the rest down," Chia Woon
Khien, the head of Asian economic research at
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken, said. "This will
lead to an asset market meltdown, especially for
stocks, because most foreign funds in Southeast
Asia are invested in equity markets."
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970820005140115?=mar&template=DNoCommas.htx&maxfieldsize=0

To Robert...

Your analysis of a "head and shoulders" top is almost laughable... The Dow
has retraced approx. .38 of the move from April.. This is a classic retracement.
Are you an experienced technician or just throwing out mumbo jumbo in order
to make yourself feel on the right side of the market...

Eldorado @ 19:31
I agree with your take on silver, me thinks it will fall before it will rise. The charts say theres some room for silver, but I feel in my bones we will see a retest of the 4.teens. Its been awhile since I considered a silver short, but Im thinking of one now. Gold should test its lows with silver. As for platinum, everything I see says buy it here or lower - if you can get it.

Emerging market debt trading topped US$3 trillion
in the first half of the year as low interest rates in the
United States helped fuel demand for high-yielding
bonds, putting the market on track to surpass last
year's turnover.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970820005140121?=mar&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=3868

Some little tidbits;

1. US Defense stockepile loans 119,000 oz of platinum to the Mint for
coins to be released this fall.

2. They already released 100,00 oz last spring.

3. They will release another 100,000 oz next year.

Note: This bullion must be payed back by the year 2003.

4. US Defense stock pile sold 553,293 lbs. of colbalt last week @18.25lb

5. Us Defense stock pile will sell another 500,000 lbs. at the end of
the year.

6. Gold American eagles sales reach monmthly high 77,000 oz, ( July )

7. Since Nov. 1986 the mint has sold 6,967,000 ounces of gold eagle
and 67,826,500 of the 1 ounce silver coins.

Note: I wonder when they will pay this back?

8. I also think they sold all of our oil reserves.

9 I wonder what they also sold. No wonder the deficit isn't higher.

10. GEORGE COLE: LONG LIVE THE KING!!!!!

The Dow will recover rapidly, we'll see 8300 again soon. Shy of a major crisis, there will be no mass exodus from equities; there simply is nowhere else to put the money

( Gold news at bottom of post )
South Africa: Jo'burg falls sharply

Originally published: TUESDAY AUGUST 19 1997

South African shares fell sharply in response to Wall Street's sell-off on
Friday, but pared their losses when the US market opened firmer.

The all share index lost 78.5 to 7,361.3, the industrial index was 71.9
down at 9,049.0 and the gold index dipped 5.8 to 1,016.4.

Dealers said the day's thin volumes indicated that there had been no
panic-selling. If overnight trades were excluded, only R500m worth of
shares were traded on the Johannesburg exchange.

Of the 478 shares traded, there were 327 declines, 75 advances and 76
unchanged. Market leader De Beers closed 275 cents down at R147.25.
Sasol saw large volumes, closing steady at R59.50.

Gold shares enjoyed some small interest after falling in sympathy with the
overall market with some dealers saying a pull-back from equities could
boost bullion. But investors were disappointed that the metal failed to
respond to the turbulence on equity markets.

Gold Demand Trends Quarterly
The aim of Gold Demand Trends ( GDT ) is to review the latest state of demand for
gold in the leading gold-consuming countries of the world.
Latest published issue:
No. 20 ( August 1997 )

Publication is at 1:30 pm London time on Wednesday 20 August 1997!
http://www.gold.org/Pages/Gedt1.htm

Internets Prophetic Resident Economist, George S. Cole, shares insightful & incisive views on all markets. Hes bullish GOLD & bearish common-stocks - Sees severe bear market in equities:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/cole817.html

Was checking out the Prudent Bear Fund ( BEARX ) that someone mentioned. Strange that they are mostly in cash! Guess what their fifth largest holding is? SWC

RJ - Could you post your real e-mail address. Thx.

Pakistan minister rejects devaluation as an option.
DEVALUATION: Regarding the depreciation of European
currencies against the US dollar which ultimately curtails the profit of
exporters, the minister rejected further devaluation of rupee. He said that
the previous government devalued the rupee by 30 percent in the last
three years but failed to produce any positive result.

Can someone please help me with some info? I am short the Aussie market and long Aussie gold shares, but the thought has occurred to me that the Dow could crash and the Aussie market crash by a much smaller %age as we have only barely exceeded our '87 highs here. Can someone please post a good site for live action on S&p 500 Dec,Mar etc. put options and their trading hours. Also some of your wisdom on striking prices would be greatly appreciated.Cheers and g'day from downunder.

Vronsky says:

"Internets Prophetic Resident Economist, George S. Cole, shares insightful & incisive views on all markets. Hes bullish GOLD & bearish common-stocks"

Have we heard this 1000 times before.. Does anyone else, except myself,
wonder it these guys are insane?

rjd@pacbell.net

Retail glut crimps profits

By Wu Zheng

A UPWARD income spiral and a taste for shopping
among Shanghainese have fueled the development of
Shanghai's retail landscape.
In the past three years, 77 big shopping centers involving
investment totaling 40 billion yuan ( $4.8 billion ) have been
set up in Shanghai's prime shopping districts, statistics from
the Shanghai Commerce Commission show.
Lured by the prosperous scene, many others are preparing
to enter marketplace.
However, they should think twice before investing more in
retail space, particularly when choosing the city's leading
shopping centers, analysts warn.
According to a recent study by the municipal government's
research center, all the city's prime shopping centers are
saturated with big department stores.
The city's most prosperous shopping locations include four
streets and four areas. They are Nanjing Road, Huaihai
Road, Sichuan Road, Xizang Road, Xujiahui area, Yuyuan
area, New Railway Station area and New Shanghai
Commercial City in Pudong.
The investigation, which was conducted with the assistance
of the Shanghai Commerce Commission and a number of
district governments, found that 40 billion yuan ( $4.8
billion ) was invested in retail space from 1995 to 1997,
almost 18.5 times what was spent in 1992-1994.
That's compared with 100 per cent growth in personal
income, 90.6 per cent growth in per capita consumption
and 80.7 per cent growth in the city's total retail sales, the
research paper said.
While retail sales are growing every year as a proportion
of the city's gross domestic product, the profit margin is
declining because of the sheer number of competitors,
statistics show.
The average cost of a large-scale department store in
downtown is around 15,000 yuan ( $1,800 ) per square
metre. While the annual profits per square metre for most
newly-completed shopping buildings is less than 1,300
yuan ( $157 ) . The return is extremely low, the investigation
found.
So it was no surprise that a number of ill-conceived and
uncharacteristic shopping structures were reporting poor
sales. A handful have already closed down, an official with
the Commerce Commission said.
While there's little room for newcomers in downtown,
researchers pointed out that the vast business opportunities
in the growing suburban residential areas have barely been
tapped.
Strong evidence indicates that in 1996, the most dynamic
segment of growth in the city's retail market was
supermarkets and convenience stores, most of which were
situated in the city's residential quarters.

OECD says Germany will not make 3% deficit criteria
"Shifts in expectations about the ability of countries to meet the Maastricht criteria and therefore
prospects for a timely start to EMU could have unpredictable confidence effects, impacting on bond
Last Updated: 12:14cet 19/8/97


OECD says Germany will not make 3% deficit criteria

PARIS ( AFX ) - The Bundesbank could make a case for further monetary easing if output grows
more slowly than projected, but currently there is "neither the expectation nor justification for a
tightening" of monetary policy, the OECD said in a report on the German economy.

"If incoming data suggest weaker growth than projected by the OECD, and forward-looking
indicators of inflation are satisfactory, the strategy of matching money growth to potential output
growth would call for a decline in interest rates insofar as underlying monetary growth is judged to
fall below target," the OECD said. The report is based on economic data available up to May 9.

The report said that Germany will only be able to reap the full benefits of European integration if it
carries out extensive structural reforms.

"The longer-run economic benefits of monetary union will depend on the progress made towards a
structurally-sound and economically-adaptive economy," the organisation said.

"Major policy decisions will need to be taken in the current and coming year, particularly with
respect to the tax and social security systems," it said.

Rexrodt says OECD survey 'confirms' govt belief that German economy

Labour and product markets need to become more flexible, and this will help to reduce
unemployment, it said.

"The process of reform has been made more difficult by the fact that effective consensus-based
decisions have proved elusive. The policy debate has remained focused on static
income-distribution issues, rather than on the need for a dynamic response to a changing global and
European economy," it said.

Although the government has introduced measures to increase labour market flexibility, the effects of
these will take time to become apparent and wage bargaining flexibility still needs to be reinforced
by greater exploitation of possibilities for plant-level bargaining.In product markets, the
government's resolve has been weakened by the decision to continue coalmining subsidies at high
levels, but the partial liberalisation of shop hours is showing the benefits of reduced state
intervention.

"Apart from improving the tax system, the principal requirement for encouraging an entrepreneurial
climate remains that of cutting excessive regulation, which needs to be pursued in both goods and
financial markets," the OECD said.

Germany's high marginal tax rates may discourage work and entrepreneurial activity, and the
comprehensive tax reform put forward by the government would represent a major step
forward.Further cuts in public spending will be needed if the medium-term aim of lowering
expenditures to the pre-unification level of 46% of GDP by 2000 is to be achieved.Rising health
spending has put pressure on labour costs because the health system relies on compulsory
wage-based contributions and reforms are therefore needed here too.The OECD reiterated its
projection that the general government deficit will be around 3.25% of GDP this year in the absence
of new measures, above the 3 pct of GDP target set by the Maastricht treaty.

However, it added: "The difference from 3% is well within the range of normal statistical revision so
at this deficit level the criterion could effectively be regarded as being met."

It said a tightening of fiscal policy to achieve the 3% target may not be desirable at a time of slow
growth, but accelerated privatisation receipts might offer one way forward.OECD economist
Robert Price, asked what measures are needed to ensure that Germany meets the 3% deficit
criterion, told a news conference that "it could be feasible for the government to increase taxes," to
meet the target.

"But we would not advocate this, as it would have a negative effect on the domestic economy."

The OECD projects German GDP growth of 2.25% this year and 2.75% in 1998.

"Growth will remain unbalanced, with an excessive dependence on exports. With consumer
confidence already fragile, any weakening in foreign markets could have an important negative
impact," it said.

"Shifts in expectations about the ability of countries to meet the Maastricht criteria and therefore
prospects for a timely start to EMU could have unpredictable confidence effects, impacting on bond
yields and exchange rates," it added.

The report said Germany's unemployment rate will be 11.1% of the workforce this year, falling to
10.9% in 1998, after 10.3% in 1996.OECD German head Dieter Menke told a news conference
the average number of unemployed this year will be 4.3 mln jobless this year, up 300,000 from last
year. In 1998, the number may fall to 4.2 mln. This forecast is consistent with the German
government's own projection.The OECD expects private consumption to grow 1% this year, after
expanding 1.3% in 1996. It should pick up again next year, rising 2%.

Menke said the OECD expects prices to remain stable, with the inflation rate at 1.7% in 1997,
down from 1.9% in 1996. In 1998, it should fall to 1.6%, according to OECD estimates.


yields and exchange rates," it added.

To get a near-term low... do we need an Institutional Panic? The very boys & girls that tell you not to panic, will panic. Then you'll see a real decline:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger818.html

Korean markets in turmoil over Hong Kong dollar, bankruptcies.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0820/m0820b01.html

Notagoldbug - It's not insanity, it's gold fever, Get yourself about 20, one oz gold eagles. Now feel their weight in your hand, fantasize that some of the gold you hold was once stored in the vaults of the Aztecs, or ancient Rome, See the light reflect of the shiny yellow metal, it's intoxicating, addicting. Now repeat after me, "I am a goldbug, I am a goldbug, I am..."

Rexrodt criticises Bavaria's governor over call for a
delay in EMU

German Economics Minister Guenter Rexrodt sharply criticised remarks
calling for a delay to Europe's planned single currency by Edmund Stoiber,
a prominent member of the Christian Social Union, the sister party to
Chancellor Helmut Kohl's Christian Democratic Union, in a newspaper
interview published today.

'Permanent repetition won't make Bavarian Governor Stoiber's attacks on
the euro more correct,' Rexrodt told the daily tabloid Bild. 'On the contrary,
his ideas are being met with increasing incomprehension and criticism by
our European partners,' Rexrodt added.

Stoiber's remarks also serve to cause uncertainty in among German
business leaders, who are counting on a punctual start to the euro,
Rexrodt said. 'It's clear: we want a punctual euro and it will be a hard euro,'
Rexrodt said.

Last week, Stoiber said in several interviews with European newspapers
that if countries don't strictly meet the entry criteria, the project should be
delayed by two years.

Participants in the planned single currency, slated to begin January 1999,
will be chosen in early 1998 based on monetary and fiscal performance in
1997.

Tokyo contractor fails leaving 150 Billion Yen debt unpaid.
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/Even.html#gen133

DJ ( 20:31 ) : "Guess what their fifth largest holding is? SWC". ..... In a bear fund??? ... Ya coulda gone all day without sayin' that. ... :- ) )

Photographic silver demand seen up 3pct in 97.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/19/ek_y0023_1.html
Goes into competing digital also.

When Central Banks awake from their stupor & stop giving away their GOLD for free, supply side of metal fundamentals will develop an immediate vacuum & Gold prices will SOAR:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/butler816.html

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Local Head & Shoulders Top?

http://www.cme.com/market/prices/indices.html
http://www.cme.com/market/prices/in-options.html

AWAY...to lurking before I say how broken the record is...
EB

2 - the stones Still rock and music is equal if not More important ( to me ) than any gold bullion...

COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended mixed Tuesday, in a
low volume sequel to Monday's sell off, despite further gains in
U.S. stocks and bonds after interest rates were left unchanged at
the U.S. Federal Reserve's open market committee meeting ( FOMC ) .

"Gold saw a little bounce back from yesterday's sell off, but it
was largely a featureless day, despite the volatility in stocks
and bonds," FIMAT New York broker John Tyree said.

After sliding to new 12-year lows around $315 in early July, spot
gold has recovered some ground, but has constantly run into
resistance just below $330 an ounce, leading some analysts to
believe a central bank forward sale program is underway again.

Implied gold lease rates eased Tuesday to 2.44 pct for one month
from 2.75 pct Monday, though 12 month rates were little changed
around 2.35 pct, leaving the forward lease curve still inverted,
and near its highest levels since January when the Dutch central
bank sold 300 tons of gold.

The high and inverted gold forward lease rate curve may reflect
borrowing by bullion banks to finance a central bank forward sale
program, traders said, but officials at the Dutch central bank
would make no comment early Tuesday.

( Reuters 04:19 PM ET 08/19/97 ) For the full text story, see
http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=4523534-3a1


---------------------------GOLD------------------------------
COMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.

CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Aug97 322.70 323.60 322.70 323.00 +1.90 414.50 314.60
Oct97 323.80 325.00 323.80 324.70 +1.80 426.50 316.80
Dec97 325.80 327.20 325.50 326.50 +1.80 456.50 318.50
Feb98 328.00 328.90 327.70 328.20 +1.80 424.00 322.50
Jun98 331.50 331.50 331.50 332.10 +1.80 470.00 327.50
Est. Sales 40790

--------------------------SILVER------------------------------
COMEX - 5,000 troy oz. _ cents per troy oz.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Aug97 448.00 450.00 448.00 450.20 +1.00 449.00 446.00
Sep97 449.00 453.00 448.50 451.20 +1.00 576.00 418.00
Dec97 455.50 459.00 455.00 457.80 +1.00 701.90 424.00
Mar98 464.00 465.50 462.00 464.30 +1.00 573.00 432.00
May98 469.50 469.50 469.50 468.40 +1.00 564.00 437.00
Dec98 481.00 481.00 481.00 483.20 +1.00 752.10 448.50
Est. Sales 14800

----------------------HIGH GRADE COPPER-----------------------
COMEX - 25,000 lbs. cents per lb.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Aug97 97.20 97.60 96.70 97.60 +1.10 120.90 84.10
Sep97 97.10 98.10 96.50 97.85 +1.15 120.50 83.00
Oct97 97.60 98.30 97.20 98.15 +1.25 117.20 84.50
Nov97 97.90 98.10 97.90 97.95 +1.15 115.10 84.50
Dec97 97.20 98.35 96.70 98.05 +1.25 114.80 83.75
Jan98 97.10 98.00 97.00 98.25 +1.15 112.00 85.20
Feb98 97.40 98.00 97.40 97.80 +1.15 106.30 85.50
Mar98 97.20 97.60 96.60 97.60 +1.25 109.30 85.00
May98 96.90 97.00 96.50 96.90 +1.05 106.75 85.00
Jul98 96.50 96.50 96.00 96.45 +1.10 104.10 84.80
Sep98 95.80 96.05 95.70 95.95 +1.10 102.10 84.70
Dec98 94.50 95.00 94.50 95.45 +1.10 102.00 91.00
Est. Sales 16269

-------------------------PALLADIUM----------------------------
NYMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Sep97 197.50 199.50 197.50 197.50 _6.00 227.60 128.75
Dec97 194.00 195.00 194.00 194.50 _5.50 219.60 120.25
Est. Sales 1002

--------------------------PLATINUM----------------------------
COMEX - 50 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Oct97 411.50 413.50 407.50 408.00 _8.40 463.70 355.50
Jan98 403.00 407.00 403.00 402.00 _6.90 454.00 360.00
Est. Sales 2229

confucius say: "Man who trade on head and shoulders may lose ass."

From recent "Strategic Investment":
"...The market has increased in a parabolic fashion over the last four months. Historically, when stocks ascend at nearly 90-degree angle at the end of a long bull market, the "end is generally near". Merrill Lynch's strategist Richard McCabe said recently that "parabolic increases. when they end, do not correct gradually or quietly." We believe that this may prove to be the understatment of the year. We would like to caution investors against believing they'll be able to recognize just when the market is going to start down, and assuming they can sell their stocks and execute short sales at just the right time."

Instigator!; and indeed so you are!!! I'm a gold smith by tradethese past twenty five and indeed precious metals do have their own lure; each unique. Price aside, they are intoxicating.

Dec. Gold down .30 @ 326.50 ....Nikkei 225 up 255 ( 1.35% ) ...George Cole ( 19:27 ) ...Thanx George!...Seemed like ABX and XAU sold off after fed. announcement....I have a damn peace of soot in me eye after cleaning the chimneys and it's gettin on my NERVES.....

Bernie: To the extent that my cynicism detracts from you well intentioned sincerity, it's regrettable and I apologize. At the same time it's, perhaps, worth noting that as long as your system of government is allowed to exceed its original constitutional framework, it will continue to operate in a fashion substantially not to your liking. Civics 101 and your annoyance to the contrary.

Rather than continue to beat the tax equity drum, it would seem to make more sense, to me at least, to devote your energies to the cause of limited government. Not only would you gain more of your own money, you might even see some liberties returned to you. ...... BTW, for a lesson in abject cynicism, do call your elected representative. Or as an alternate, read the collected speeches and assumed wisdom of one William Jefferson Clinton. In the meantime you're at the right location while waiting for the revolution.

EB -- Thanks for the useful sites. Am still trying to pick a striking price for the S&P puts. Somewhere between Puetz and Ted should do.

Your statement: "no mass exodus from equities;there simply is nowhere
else to put the money" That is a very significant statement, and I do
not find fault with such. You are implying, the reality of the situation,
suggests no other choice exists. WOW !

I suspect, that the Central Banks, are in fact designing the present
chaos. Many knowledgable persons, at this site, have on many occasions
commented, that much of the action, re-action, of the market, is conduct-
ing itself, in a very strange manner.

Should the market crash, as I certainly expect such to happen. They,
( central banks ) , create such economic, and political chaos. Will these
activities of crisis, one after another, not require the same central
bankers, to manage such crises ?

As you have said, "no were else to put the money" can you imagine how
this will confuse and demoralize the population, considering, the present
massive scale of apathy, that exists.

The USofA dollar is the worlds present reserve currency, such chaos in
the world currency markets, would require the central bank of the USofA
Emergency management group, to take charge, control, of the USofA's
domestic and foreign policies.

Present political leaders, in the USofA, are busy with personal matters,
court cases, and other such personal subjects.

This is my take on your statement, it is a very important point you have
made. It scares the hell out of me, because I do believe you are correct,
for very legitimate reasons. The population, will not convert to gold
in any great numbers, they will stand, and demand the government to fix
the economic chaos. People, to not like to loss, especially, when the
news media, will crank up the lies, and spin doctors will be on overtime.

Miz Aug 18 @ 22:40: "Fundamentally the bank of Japan has to *become*
independent from the Minister of Finance *like* the US and Germany."

Miz is wrong, the central bank in 1913, was set up for an economy that
would be in a war, 1918 ( WW I 1914 ) . All the economic resources of a
country should be consolidated to put forth a united effort, but, not
required in peace time.

Gold, is being pressured, but, maybe for other reasons, then a cover up
for economic mis-management, but, in fact to support a war mentality, of
the central bankers, these types of bankers will have to be forced to go.

Jack: Just want to thank you for that post on silver usage. Been looking for that for awhile. Silver Institute? I'll be looking for them next. If they have an URL and anyone knows, it please post.

" In the space of thiry years , we have come full circle from an era when paper was king, through the reign of hard assets and back... one is drawn again to think of times when real assets will rule. This is impossible for some to imagine in the present enviroment, yet if history is any guide, we may be headed into a period where things will seem more attractive than abstractions." - John Bollinger's Capital Growth Letter

Goldbug; Read your post 20:42 and must ask your age.Really, if you've not seen a manic cycle to the flip side, ( when you can look back and say "wow , if I'd only known what I know know!" ) , then you simply can't understand. But you will.

Merrill Lynch was bearish on gold from $35 to $850 - turned bullish at all-time high of $850 in 1980! As usual Dines provides well-written insights on Gold & Silver:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines818.html

According to the post showing ABX and PDG at 10:00 before Lehman's downgrade, they were both up. However, both closed like they fell out of bed. Down to the bottom of a trading range.

Shek: I believe the latest STRATEGIC INVESTMENT has an article discussing the impact of a possible deflation on the gold price. Perhaps you could enlighten us on their conclusions?

I finally figured out why the stox market has been so strong for so long. It's all Ted's fault. His DRIPs just keeping on DRIPing! :- ) )

The big boys scared the FED on Friday so they would not raise rates the following week. Does anyone know how many times this has happened in the past ? The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for Sept. 30. Let's watch on Sept 26 for a repeat of last Friday. Triple witching, however, will be one week earlier on September 19 ( third Friday of the month ) .

Perhaps any market decline will be an orderly retreat. It might happen "slot machine" style. Up 114, down 250, up 35, up 65, down 125, etc. The overall effect will be a significant downward correction over many months, almost transparent to daily market watchers and "dippers". The net effect would have been for smart money to exit without the masses selling, while preserving the continued strong influx of index fund money ( with fees ) ,masking stock sales.

The question I don't have an answer for is: "Where will smart money go?" Will it "park" in money market to return when PE = 12 ? Will it buy gold ? Real estate ? Mabey it will simply play the dips, too. Take out the shorts, stop losses, etc... make "fees" ... repeat ...

It is not easy to throw out the lessons learned over-the-years and embrace the new paradigms "What goes up always stays up." "Inflation going forward will be 3% forever." "PE ratios of 20-40 are the new norm".

RJ:

Good to see that you're still alive and well. On the gold front I see that you are still an unrepentant bear. A question for vous. If the current and previous selling waves which have come about around the $328 - $330 level are indeed the work of a European CB, this would have to be classified as the most bearish of all scenarios. Certainly far more bearish than if it is just fund selling or even forward sales by miners. In the case of funds, there is no new supply coming to market just borrowed supply, miners would just be selling supply that is already 'accounted' for in the supply / demand equation. So in the ranking of whose doing the selling it would appear that CB selling is the most bearish from a fundamental standpoint as this is only case where real new supply can be had. If we accept your analysis that this is indeed CB selling, don't you find it a little unnerving that under the 'best' circumstances for the bear case gold is only down $5 from the sell point? This would seem to me to be a very bad bet. You get the fundamentals to break your way and yet the profit is very small. Of course if it turns out that the 'fundamentals' were different ( fund selling ) then this will turn out to be a very bad bet as the eventually covering rally will be big bad and nasty.

On the silver front you are aware of my views on the fundamental side so I will not repeat them. The only tidbit that I have to offer is that there was some good business done ( 2000 lots ) of Dec 98 650 calls. The buyer as related to me has shown size appetite in the past. It could be that something is brewing. A few months back and a few dimes higher you were a silver bull. Now that it appears to be strengthening why the sudden change of heart?

INFLATION: "Gold is no hedge against inflation of a prolonged character. Even worse, it lost purchasing power consistently and seriously in each inflationary episode"
DEFLATION: "In all four delations purchasing power of gold appreciated handsomely" - " The Golden Constant: The English and American Experience 1560-1976, Roy Jastram
From SI: "On average, the price of gold rose in real terms within four years of the end of the cycle to exceed its inflationary high..by 8.5 per cent in real terms. This implies that the inflation ( or deflation ) -adjusted price of gold would exceed $925 in 1980 dollars.... The reason I do not abandon our early stage gold mining shares is precisely because gold is not an inflation hedge, but a deflation hedge."

NotaGoldbug: I'm not faulting your inalienable right to express whatever opinion pleases you but with the exception of projecting the past as prologue, I don't seem to recall you backing up your comments with ideas, facts or analyses, as you see them. It just seems to me that opinion, as strongly held as yours, should have something to go along with it. Something besides ad hominem attacks, that is.

It goes without saying that a man's comments should receive a level of consideration equal to that which he put into them. Words like "insane" are generally given short shrift in my readings. Failing an inability or unwillingness to communicate reasonably, your words just come across as another example of 3 - 2 - 5. Or put another way, an ego riding atop a loose cannon.

In the end, you may be absolutely correct but in the meantime; is your need to be believed, stronger than your ability to communicate reasonably? I won't presume to speak for others but I seldom confuse volume with content and never accept force over reason.

RJ -- Actually good to hear from you again. I must say, some of you moguls take long vacations!

Silver may crash and gold may crash. I'm probably the last one to ask on this matter. All I know is support and resistance, and have some luck with short term trend lines. But, I do not like the situations that are happening out there with the currencies. That stuff has a way of beating a fast trail back from whence it came! We export inflation to them, they export it back! On top of that, the money won't wind up in the pockets of the 'consumer' at the same time prices are going up and bancruptcies are on a big rise. Double whammy for the consumers here. Inflationary deflation? Damned if I know. All I know is that if people can't afford, they can't buy, all at the same time we may have a WHOLE LOT of dollars flooding back here to pick the bones. As you say, what else can they buy? Maybe simply whatever goods they can find! I would like to hear your take on the currency problems happening elsewheres and their potential effect here. Good to have you back.

TED -- The 'downgade' was on the Dow Jones wire sometime around 8:00 to 8:45 this morning. If it's real important, I suppose I could dig up the exact time, but you better speak fast!

Is this server slow tonight or is it the routing to the server?

Earl:

I really deserved.. And, you expressed your dislike for people like me so
eloquently that I must take a bow..

Earl:

I'm 45 and will wait until gold is "truly" undervalued to step up and enjoy the
ride..

Instigator:

You made me laugh tell I cried. "I'm notagoldbug", "I'm notagoldbug",
"I'm notagoldbug"...

RJ:

"
The Dow will recover rapidly, we'll see 8300 again soon. Shy of a major crisis, there will be no mass exodus from equities; there simply is nowhere else to put the money
"

You're absolutely right but might I also mention that there will now be yet another reason for a crashrather than a slide.

As of yesterday ( Monday ) the whole DOW market has now been convinced that the prices after ANY fall will go back up. Imagine that ... Everyone will be believers that it will go back up even as it drops further and further until everyone finally wakes up and tries for the exit at the same time.

You're logic is correct in that there's noplace else to put the money but the reason the DOW will drop will be a lack of buyers for a very few sellers. Obviously it takes both in equal value to keep the market stable but with less buyers and more sellers and with the money not going anywhere since it's already spent, it therefore can't support the market through buying. It's not where it can go, it's that there's not enough buying to keep it up and it'll be too late for the majority once it doesn't seem to be coming back from a fall.

Once it starts to fall, they'll stand pat and that will drive it further into it's "black hole". If they don't buy, it'll force it to fall further. It needs to be bought to rise.

Last point, Your statement above is absolutely correct but I see that as the reason for the fall, not as a benefit for rising anywhere above 8300.

TTFN

Evening Panda!....Seems like the Fed. announcement and not the downgrade did in ABX+XAU...as ABX was up in early trading...Am still staring at that yellow post-it and waiting....and waiting...Gold+currencies pretty quiet ( DEAD ) tonight!

Panda: I don't think it's slow tonight....server that is...

NotaGoldbug: Two comments and a pass:
1. There was nothing personal intended. I can separate action from person, dislike one and at least be neutral on the other. I think most folks here begin with the assumption that the other fellow is at least as decent he is.

2. You evaded the general equities issue entirely. By your presence on a goldbug site, I would have assumed you were patiently waiting for the turn. Along with everyone else. I would hope that at least some of the ideas presented here are of merit.

Hang Seng up 230.91 ( 1.49% ) ....Nikkei 225 up 212.62 ( 1.12% ) ...Good night ALL!........

Earl:

You said:
"You evaded the general equities issue entirely. By your presence on a goldbug site, I would have assumed you were patiently waiting for the turn. Along with everyone else"

I am waiting for a turn. Yes.. But around 50 XAU..
Here is a chart:

http://www.teleport.com/~rossn/XAU.html

Food for thought 1;

Front: Sure wish I could be equally certain about absolute DOW/SP levels and probability of a crash. George has presented the best case for the thing so far but it's a mania. A grand delusion. Mom and Pop devoting entire evenings, traveling to exotic places, in brocures. This thing has a life of its own with greater energy levels than the Eveready Bunny.

We may know that nature abhors any system that can be described by a vertical asymptote but at the same time she places no boundary on its upper limit. If there is any comfort in it at all, it's in knowing that the steepness of the curve ( should it continue ) sort of ensures that the ultimate peak is not far off in time. IMO, the best the general equity longs can hope for is a flattening of the rate of advance. The longer it maintains its torrid rate of rise the greater the risk of calamity coming off the top.

In the meantime, it would probably be advantageous to identify those exact individuals who have NOT taken second mortgages on their homes and addditional loans on their cars and etc. For surely, as soon as they tip their fevered hands in the direction of the market, that will be island reversal day. ....... Perhaps we could make public appeals for these individuals to step forward and make their presence and intentions known. Sort of as public service, you understand. ...... :- ) ) )

Food for thought 2;

Thought number 3 is, Good night.

"the bear-trap" .... hook, line, & sinker, though we may go to new highs in both U.S. Bonds, and Stocks ( -but no the U.S. dollar ) ; this will be the ultimate "bull/bear trap":: ... the last "hooraah!"...for the DJIA, S&P500, T-Bonds, are 'here' and 'now'. This will be the final "hook" for the baited 'Yuppie-Kingdom' ....still hungry.
Continue to accumulate gold & silver assets/investments: precious metals mining shares/stocks of primary/major producers first; then
secondaries, and futures/writing puts; and gold & silver calls, going long, out to 3/6 mos., for short-term traders.

ALL: For all of you who think a re-test of DJIA 8300 is a slam-dunk, please reconsider. The 1929 and 1987 patterns suggest that the present rally will stall between 7900 and 8000 -- this week. Ted: Please get out of stocks NOW. DJIA will collapse to between 6000 and 7000 by early September. For those wanting to buy S&P 500 puts -- Do it right away. Anything above a strike price of 600 ( with a December expiration ) will make you lots of money -- since the S&P will crash to at least 500 ( probably much lower ) by the end of October 1997. Back to writing my newsletter. RJ: Good to see you back. However, you're making erroneous predictions about gold, silver, and especially stocks.

NotaGoldbug: Sorry for the delay. I went to my quick source data for a chart but it doesn't go back to the early 90s. Will pursue it tomorrow.

I did print your chart but I'm not an Ewaver so I don't feel comfortable with commenting on that element but prior to the 93 runup, the XAU was in the range of 65, perhaps your case can be made equally well on that basis alone. That is that we will revisit those lows again.

Though I find it a little difficult to accept; given all that has ocurred in the gold market since 93, I wouldn't be willing to discount the possibility entirely.

Peutz: Real neighbourly of you to leave your design of the next birdbath to alert those of us who still read your posts.

Thanks for the welcome. As for the rest, and to economize on words, state my position as the opposite.

Shek: I would be a trifle hesitate to glean too many insights from Jastrum's musings in the book you mention. Noteably because it was originally written in 1934 -- and therefore obviously does not take into account an important part of gold's more recent history.