Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Sun Aug 24 1997 00:00)
National Financial Heros @ USofA
Puetz @ 21:09: If I may, I would like to add the name Allen Greenspan,
to the list of Financial heros, that you and Capnkev were discussing.

Greenspan was director of major Wall Street firms such as J.P. Morgan Co.
Morgan Guaranty Trust, Brookings Institution, Bowery Savings Bank, the
Dreyfus Fund, General Foods, and Time, Inc.

Greenspan's most impressive achievement was as chairman of the National
Commission on Social Security from 1981 -1983. The figures convinced
the public that Social Security was bankrupt. These figures were then
used to fasten onto American workers a huge increase in Social Security
withholding taxes.

Within days of taking over as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board,
Greenspan immediately raised the interest rate on Sept. 04, 1987, the
first such increase in three years of general prosperity, and
precipitated the stock market crash of Oct. 1987, Black Monday, when
the Dow Jones average plunged 508 points.

Under Greenspan's direction, the Federal Reserve Board has steadily
nudged the United States deeper and deeper into recession, without a
word of criticism from the complaisant members of Congress.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 00:00)
@the scene
Another -- Re: ( thoughts not written anymore 18:09 ) , I simply have to agree with what was posted there! A most excellent posting! In the end, there is no alternative. Paper is paper and gold is gold! I think it behooves everyone here to copy that posting and review it everyday! In that, they'll have a backing in truth when they wonder what they are doing in gold in the interim! By the way, where did you find that posting, if I may ask?

(Sun Aug 24 1997 00:08)
@the scene
oldman -- I haven't been able to read your whole posting yet as I came out of my last posting in medium text and when I refreshed in full text, the whole thing was 'history'! I'll keep trying though. I understand your thinking on training a liberal. It's easier to potty train a baby! But, perhaps a few tidbits will cross over into a few other mentalities here.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 00:18)
@the scene
AH, I see the problem! Crossed the 'day boundary'! Didn't notice the 'midnight' hour! Swell!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 00:18)
@Mike Sheller
Mike Sheller ( 21:40 ) I agree on BOTH points!!....The hour is late and it's time to say......good night ALL...

(Sun Aug 24 1997 00:24)
@the scene
oldman -- Finally 'retrieved' your posting! YES, I agree with Buchanans approach to 'that' problem! That would most certainly put a bit more 'definition' in a liberal! Let us then see what 'they' are made of! Love it!!!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 00:43)
calling John Disney
John Disney: I am holding alot of Harmony and Durban Deep.
I miss your comments and imput on the SA stocks.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 01:09)
Hard to use
Bart...........Enjoy this site, but why are you making it so hard to use?

(Sun Aug 24 1997 01:15)
Same Glen?
Glen....I have not been on this site on a regular basis, but your investment approach has taken a 180 degree turn. Has it got anything to do with being on the floor, or maybe the people you talk to there?

(Sun Aug 24 1997 01:24)
@the scene
Time to call it a night. BBL.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 02:08)
My Two (2) cents @ If you do not mind?
Eldorado & Oldman : regarding "Liberal" very much a question mark????
Relativism: The precept that people's ideas of right and wrong vary
considerably from place to place and time to time; therefore, there are
no universally valid ethical standards.

Pragmatism: An American philosophy developed in the nineteenth century by
Charles Sanders Peirce ( 1839-1914 ) and William James, and elaborated on
in the twentieth century by John Dewey. Its central precepts are that
thinking is primarily a guide to action and that the truth of any idea
lies in its practical consequences.

Humanism: Any philosophic view that holds that humankind's well-being
and happiness in this lifetime are primary and that the good of all
humanity is the highest ethical goal. Twentieth-century humanists tend
to reject all beliefs in the supernatural, relying instead on scientific
methods and reason. The term is also used to refer to Renaissance
thinkers, especially in the fifteenth century in Italy, who emphasized
knowledge and learning not based on religious sources.

Justice: According to most philosophers, starting with Plato, the
harmonious balance between the rights of the various members of a society
Justice is usually understood as including such social virtues as
fairness, equality, and correct and impartial treatment.

Sooooooooo, If the model of elected government and its bureaucratic
instrumentalities is unsatisfactory, as it plainly is, then alternative
kinds of public agency must be established. Without the illusion of
electoral democracy as an aggregation of sovereignty.

There should be a reconstruction of the mechanisms of public choice, not
to abandon them in favour of an illusory individual freedom.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 03:05)
@Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds
Anyone wanna buy a gold tulip? Special price for Kitcoites. Send $150 000 to the Wizard of Oz. Very good deal. Much better value than shares at these prices!!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 03:15)
Sorry - been lurking and dozing off a bit.

For Ars in mexico - I have lots of Buffels and adding
Harmony. Also adding Evander and Randfontein as too cheap
to believe. Also East Dagga. Nothing much more to say other
than cross fingers hope BBFisher right Glenn wrong.Respect
opinions of both.

For 6pac - killing tax collectors interesting russian
custom . Hope this catches on worldwide.

For Yellowjacket - your rundown on DDeep excellent.
However my understanding is that EXISTING DD holders
get a long option on new company. This option = 4 times
present Blyvoor option on trade in.
And on converting via buffels/blyvoor you NOT entitled
to this option so your DD value would be EX option.
Maybe you said this and I am sloppy reader. Can you
I also confirm you are NOT jdisney. I'm not really
sure who is.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 03:43)
@ Share market base jumping
Wake up Yanks!! Sunday is a day of serious reflection.

"This entire month of August is going to prove to be a basing kind of month, a correction from the vast move up from April to July," Stein said.

Hello to all the "base jumpers" out there.

Strad Master
(Sun Aug 24 1997 04:01)
Late night musings
OLDMAN: I just got through reviewing the posting from Friday night. It takes a bit longer with the new system. Anyway, thanks so much for your cautionary note to me regarding S & P puts. I have NEVER seriously considered them - I was merely interested in how they might work. They are FAR too rich for my investing blood! BTW, did you get the e-mail I sent you a week or so ago. I hope so. Loved your comments regarding the liveral mentality. If I may amplify on your point for a moment - as you said, modern liberalism is primarily based on feelings as opposed to facts, which is why it has been so successful of late. It is very difficult for a modern conservative ( by which I mean anyone who thinks along the lines of JFK - who today would probably be considered far to the right of Newt ) to express a reasoned position without sounding like a cruel and heartless boor. It takes a lot of time and eloquence to fashion a cogent argument as to why affirmative action, bi-lingual education, etc. ( fill in the blank ) is bad policy that ultimately hurts the very people it is designed to help. All the liberal has to do is say, "Look how unfair it is - you aren't inclusive or compassionate ( fill in the blank ) , and the argument is won. Also, when liberal arguments fail it is very easy to resort to name calling: "If you don't agree you must be a racist, homophobe, mysogynist, etc. ( fill in the blank. ) All argument ceases. In short, as so many here have noted already, it's a no-win proposition trying to change a liberal's mind set. As a musician, I am in a real minority as a centrist ( which is how I define myself ) . My colleagues define me as a right wing conservative. They are so feelings oriented ( I think it comes with the territory - an occupational hazard ) that it is impossible to break through with a reason or fact-based argument.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 04:02)
just a note
When someone "recommends" something to me; my reaction is, "Do you own some of those? Is your own money on this? & At what price did you buy it? Can I get it at that price?"......If they say no to any of this, I say thanks but no thanks....'cause they either try'n to unload something on me, or, they suffer a severe lack somewhere______ ( fill in blank ) .

Strad Master
(Sun Aug 24 1997 04:07)
Next Sunday's Concert in LA
EB: Can't wait to meet you. By all means - come backstage!!! I'll keep an eye out for the Lead Zeppelin T-shirt!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 04:19)
LEATHER JACKET: Is that you John? If so, will I have to accept cash redemption for BLYDY shares instead of DROOY reissues??

(Sun Aug 24 1997 06:07)
Aftermath of Indonesian devaluation.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 06:41)
The bond market needs a reality check.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 06:53)
Indian industrialists cheer rupee devaluation.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 07:05)
Aftermath of Philippine devaluation.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 07:12)
IMF says market response to Thailand bailout not justified.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 07:30)
Mornin Donald and ALL Kitcoites......the sun is tryin to come out but with "the Irishman" here,it's a long shot....approx.12 hours until the games resume...and the volatility!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 07:45)
Hello Ted: Sunny, calm and 60, looks like a nice one, two days in a row. Still working on storm debris but nearly done.

George Cole
(Sun Aug 24 1997 08:03)
Lurker: Passage of MAI will increase the power and confidence of transnational capital versus labor and governments, carrying NAFTA and GATT one step further. Anything that increases the power and confidence of capital is bearish for gold as an investment alternative ( this does not apply to jewelry demand ) Gold surges when capital runs scared as in the 1930s and 1970s. But the yellow sags when capital trounces labor as been the case for the past 15 years.

Note that MAI is only one factor, albeit an important one, impacting the markets. The Teamsters victory in the UPS strike was a plus for labor and a negative for capital. I do suspect some of the positive impact of MAI has already been discounted in the marketplace. I am still bullish on gold and bearish on stocks. But I would a be more bullish on gold if Congress were to reject fast track authority for Clinton in this matter.

Steve Roach again warns of worker backlash:

The Worker Backlash


AST HAMPTON , N.Y. -- The just-resolved United Parcel Service strike was a shot
across the bow of the inflationless 1990's. American workers are now beginning to
challenge the very forces that have led to a spectacular resurgence in corporate
profitability and competitiveness in the United States. They are, in effect, saying "no" to years
of corporate cost cutting that has been directed primarily at the nation's labor force.

The strike and the settlement, which was largely on the union's terms, question the wisdom of
a Federal Reserve that, by leaving monetary policy steady, seems content to ignore the danger
of renewed inflation. And the settlement underscores the potential for a sharp decline in the
ever frothy stock and bond markets.

These concerns are certainly at odds with today's conventional wisdom. Many believe that the
United States economy has entered a new era. According to this tale, the post-cold-war forces
of globalization, deregulation and a technology-led Information Age have combined to produce
a rare and powerful recovery, led by increased worker productivity.

In such a scenario, wage increases are largely offset by increased worker productivity.

As a result, costs are held in check, inflation remains quiescent and corporate profit margins
widen inexorably. The financial markets enjoy the best of all worlds: low interest rates that
underpin a strong bond market and healthy corporate earnings that nourish an ever rising stock

The productivity-led recovery offers ample rewards for shareholders and workers alike. Labor
can reap higher wages as its productivity increases, while investors can reap handsome returns.

It's quite possible, however, that a very different scenario has been responsible for the good
news on inflation and corporate profits in recent years. Call it a labor-crunch recovery -- one
that flourishes only because corporate America puts unrelenting pressure on its work force.

This is a much tougher and more pessimistic vision of the United States economy in the
1990's. Pressured by intense global competition and frustrated by efforts to boost productivity
in information or service industries, businesses become fixated on slashing labor costs, which
account for close to 70 percent of all corporate expenses in the United States.

Intimidated by the ultimate threat of job security, labor initially complies with corporate
America's demands. Companies hire more temporary and part-time workers, and full-time
workers are made to stretch their work schedules as never before. At the same time, employees
begin to bear more of the cost of their benefits, including health insurance. And then there's the
clincher: wages, adjusted for inflation, are squeezed, leading to a near stagnation that has
persisted for more than two decades.

Unlike the productivity-led recovery, the labor-crunch recovery is not sustainable. It is a recipe
for mounting tensions, in which a raw power struggle occurs between capital and labor.

Investors are initially rewarded beyond their wildest dreams, but those rewards could
eventually be wiped out by a worker backlash.

Investors are quick to repudiate the case for worker backlash and defend the miracles of the
productivity-led recovery. And why shouldn't they? The latter promises no end in sight to the
glorious bull markets of the 1990's.

But there's one small problem with this grand vision of the brave new world. There's not a
shred of credible evidence in the macro-economy that supports the notion of a meaningful
improvement in America's productivity.

Indeed, in the Commerce Department's just-completed comprehensive revision of the national
economic accounts, the poor productivity performance of the 1990's was left essentially
unaltered. It found that the United States experienced average annual gains of slightly less than
1 percent over the past six years, little different from the disappointing performance of the
1980's and less than half the gains of the 1950's and 1960's.

It's at this point that productivity revivalists claim foul. They argue that the data must simply be
wrong. Even Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, has embraced this point of
view, and it seems to have had a major impact on the Fed's recent decisions to leave monetary
policy unchanged.

But the weight of evidence is increasingly in favor of the labor-crunch scenario. And it's not
just the official statistics on productivity that favor this argument.

There has also been a dramatic realignment of the nation's economic pie, with a much larger
slice going to capital and a smaller one going to labor. Corporate profits surged to 9.6 percent
of gross domestic product in 1996, the highest share in 28 years, and labor compensation
stood at 58 percent of gross domestic product in 1996, well below the high of 59 percent hit in
the late 1980's.  W hich takes us back to the recently settled U.P.S. strike. One strike hardly
makes a trend. But there can be no mistaking the message from the nation's most significant
work stoppage since 1983. Today, with the unemployment rate at a 24-year low, labor unions
were emboldened to take action. And with corporate profitability at its highest in a generation,
management has decided that it can afford to give workers a raise. For U.P.S., the cost of
settlement is hardly trivial. By some estimates, it will eventually cost as much as $1 billion a
year, and that comes right out of the company's bottom line.

In the end, that's what worker backlash is all about. It speaks of a labor force that challenges
the very notion of cost cutting, which has been central to America's economic recovery in the

Whether future labor battles are fought over wages, part-time work, mandatory overtime,
temporary workers or pension and medical benefits, the message will be the same: gone are the
days of a docile American labor force that once acquiesced to slash-and-burn corporate

The potential for worker backlash raises profound questions. Can higher inflation and thinner
profit margins be far behind? Can the Federal Reserve afford to keep interest rates low? Will
the financial markets continue to enjoy unbounded exuberance?

As the pendulum of economic power begins to swing from capital back to labor, these are the
very risks we must now begin to confront.

Stephen S. Roach is chief economist and director of global economics for Morgan Stanley
Dean Witter.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 08:04)
Peruvian government acknowledges it stole employee pension funds for publics works use. They will replace the money with bonds.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 08:15)
GEORGE COLE: Good Morning! Thanks for that Steve Roach essay. When you think back to the labor situation of the 1890's, the situation that created unions in the first place, you see the same environment for the bull market that ended in 1929. Workers were squeezed for everything they had, child labor was rampant, heavy handed and greedy management produced the profits of the 1920's that ramped up stocks. History rhymes.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 08:19)
Dubai gold traders hurt by Indian announcement to liberalize gold ownership.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 08:24)
Chilean Senator calls for mining royalties to stop "giveaway" of resources.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 08:26)
Seen at a midwest Republican rally...
"Thurmond-Helms 2000. Don't waste 200 years of experience."

minor correction
(Sun Aug 24 1997 08:36)
re: Sat Aug 23 1997 22:46
panda: NEM is Newmont Mining. NGC is Newmont Gold. The latter has been historically more volatile than the former.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 08:56)

the nature of depressions is not to em-power the working
class! it en-ables the politicos to re-paint the picture
with more constraints and laws in favor of a gradual and
never-ending power grab. who wins in depressions? surely
not the folks on the lower rungs of life. those with power
and money use these periods to add ( buy low ) , while others
sell to survive. this would be considered a great opportunuity
by those you hold dear, and was probably precipitated by them
tam bien'. listen to your next presidential candidate ( al goofy gore )
and consider if he could possibly be worse than the current
back-slider in office. could he win? would naming all trees and
giving them citizenship be his first act in office? remember what
your other buddy did----gays in the military, billarys' health
care fiasco, etc... these issues, on the fringe of our societal
concerns, prove that their agenda is special interest driven, ( sig )
and does not include ANY blue collar ( workers ) , unless it is to
pander, and prostitute them-selves with tax dollars in the form
of welfare and en-titlements to get their vote.

we need to become isolationist again and fix what is wrong with
our society due to the nwo, gatt, nafta, and who knows what else
that has gone on under the table. we have opened the door for
the bastardazation of our soveriegnity with these treaties, and
the un chips away at it daily. our "partners" across the world,
whom we help with money, food, protection, etc... , vote against
us, as we have shouldered the financial burden of this same
organization. dis-band the un, rescind gatt, nafta, and sever
our ties with the nwo. let them feed and protect themselves.
let them kill each other as they have done for aeons and aeons.
we do not need to police the world, as this is an impossibility
and weakens our infra-structure with a constant outflow of funds,
materials, and foodstuffs. what has happened to our huge carrovers
of grains? we gave them away for influence and favors. what
happens when flux is amux us? chaos will reign supreme as this
scenario is carried to prophetic proportions.

must the path always be taken with head lowered and with no concern
for the ramifications and the CERTAINTY of chaos and flux?

ww---- you and yours will cry and scream first, and loudest
when the bitter harvest is on the table and ready to eat. the
loco-weed and bitter-root have been carefully manipulated to
appear palatable, yet their roots are tied to the nwo for your
benefit too.

hey ted---how's the head?

cherokee!; ) dotssmfatimm---------sick-of-liberals--, AND feminists,
AND sig's------------------------

(Sun Aug 24 1997 09:07)
A bullish statment on Gold from Vancouver, Placer Dome.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 09:11)
minor correction -- You are right, I mixed up the names. The ticker information is correct though.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 09:13)
Here is a nice site with numerous market indicators on an easy to read chart, charts and historical data also:

(Sun Aug 24 1997 09:17)
For thous of you interested my longer term investment outlook has never changed. At some point the stock market will make a top and the gold market will make a bottom and when the trend changes it will stay that way for a number of years. I'm simply not interested, whether you call yourself a long term interester or short term invester to buck the current trend yet. There were a couple of times over the past 18 months when I thought the trend was going to change any second only to realize very shortly after that, that I was wrong and the current trends were still in place.

Without telling the world everything that I look at I would be will to state that "I" believe that the fed will raise interest rates at least once more before the bull in stocks is over. Since they did not raise in Aug the bull is NOT dead and this is a correction. I also believe that they will raise rates in November and that we will get a bigger correction at that time in the stock market. At that point in time I will determine if that was the HIGH, but I even doupt that will be it. Although the correction in november could be worse. Now I am open mided that this correction we are in could go down one more time in September and just maybe the lows are not in, it still is only a correction. If we do go down in september then we may very well be anticipating the next rate hike and when it does happen we would then begin to rally to new highes upon it's announcement!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 09:30)
Japanese Stocks Seen Sliding for Fifth Week on Profit Worry

Japanese stocks will probably fall for a fifth week on concern sluggish domestic demand for
consumer products could crimp profit growth. The benchmark Nikkei 225 index slid 3.5 percent
last week to 18,650.17 -- the lowest close since April 25. Worry over the economy could push
the market even lower, fueled by selling from domestic investors anxious to book gains made since
the business year began April 1, said Masaaki Toda, deputy manager of the investor information
department at Nomura Securities.

John Disney
(Sun Aug 24 1997 09:47)
for Savage-

Where in the world did you get this strange notion that you must get
cash instead of DD shares for Blyvvoor ?? I have never heard anything
about this and cannot comprehend it.
Also who is this so called "leatherjacket" ??

(Sun Aug 24 1997 09:53)
George Cole -MAI track may not be a slam-dunk...excerpts of a story in today's FT
More important, the rivals for the Democratic presidential
nomination  Vice-President Al Gore and Richard Gephardt,
the House minority leader  are vying for trade-union support
in the upcoming primaries. Gore will soon be in the difficult
position of having to support President Clinton's request for
"fast-track authority" to negotiate more free-trade
agreements, a request the unions will oppose.

Since Gephardt will back the unions, Gore needs some way
of offsetting his opposition to trade-union protectionists. So
he will do everything he can to throw administration support
behind union organising efforts. Clinton, pledged to help
Gore get his party's nomination, will co-operate.

How all this will affect the American economy is debatable.
Whether or not the unions extend their reach, some analysts
fear that upward pressure on wages will bring the boom to
an end or, at minimum, bring the great bull run on Wall Street
to a screeching halt. Coutts bank, in its comprehensive
International Investment Review, argues that tight labour
markets will produce rising wage pressures, in turn causing
interest rates to rise. Because companies lack pricing power,
rising wages will also make it "difficult to maintain margins
and meet the very demanding earnings growth rates implied
by current market valuations". The result will be lower share
prices as "the reality of downward revisions" of future
earnings growth sets in.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 09:55)
Most recent equity strategy
Does anybody know a site of equity strategy: allocation, industry analysis, etc. I have to write a gold report. The format of this site has changed and I cannot post this. It is my third trial.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 10:03)
Heretofore the Federal Reserve Bank HAS ALWAYS posted to the Internet on Fridays the amount of Foreign Owned T-Bonds held in Custody at the FRB. One has been able to access this data via either of the two URLs:
Attempts to access this data today produce only an error message. Perhaps the data are too embarrassing - and the illustrious ones in Washington are looking for a way to 'pad' the results???????!!!!!!

If anyone knows of an alternate way of obtaining the information, all would be grateful... IMHO, a reversal in the established trend will be an indisputable and undeniable signal that indeed the stock bull is mortally wounded.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 10:05)
China pulls teeth of Asian Tigers
Excellent column in Asian turmoil in todays' Sunday Times of London...
August 24 1997 ...couldn't link..requires password..

The collapse of the South Korea's giant Kia highlights how the
east's once-thrusting tiger economies are facing competition
from China. Michael Sheridan reports from Hong Kong

Workers unite to save jobs: civic groups, top, have joined
Kia production staff to demand government support
Photograph: Paul Barker
China pulls teeth of Asian

VICKY NG, a businesswoman who trades in China,
complains that her Korean-made Kia saloon is always in the
garage repair shop but she knows why she bought it. "It's
cheap," she says, about 40% cheaper than the Japanese

Yet sales by Kia's motor division of its bargain-basement
cars in Asia have not sufficed to save the South Korean
conglomerate from financial collapse. It has taken a beating
on all sides. Sales of its cars have slumped in a cut-throat
domestic market. Its steel division has run up heavy losses,
and its commercial-vehicle maker is also wallowing in a sea
of red ink. Kia has been placed under anti-bankruptcy
protection laws while its banks work out a survival plan.

The Kia crisis is the latest in a series of disasters at Korea's
chaebols, the giant combines that operated as the
powerhouses of Korea's export drive to the West. Once they
seemed unstoppable but now they are struggling to adjust to
changing world markets and especially the emergence of
China as a low-cost competitor.

But the Kia crisis goes beyond business. It is also a shock for
the whole country, which only last December joined the
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
( OECD ) , the club of the world's richest 29 nations.

"What is happening to Kia will show whether the South
Korean government and banking system can help the
chaebols adapt to the new trading environment," says a
western banker. "The old rules of protectionism and
regulation, plus their low return on equity, won't do in any

In the past few weeks a series of shocks has unsettled the
steady wealth accumulation east Asia has taken for granted.
The change of fortune in the region has been made manifest in
many forms, from Korea's silent heavy industrial plants to the
gleaming but empty condominiums and shopping malls along
Bangkok's Chao Phrya river.

There is no one simple explanation because cycles and
circumstances vary from country to country. But one general
factor is the impact of low-cost Chinese competition in cutting
into overseas markets. As a result, Asian currencies once
pegged to the American dollar are coming unstuck as
speculators force devaluations, throwing the plans of both
businesses and governments into chaos.

Last week, Thailand's cabinet approved the stringent
conditions attached to a 10 billion rescue package from the
International Monetary Fund. The authorities were forced to
shut down more than half the companies operating in
Bangkok's finance sector after billions of pounds of
central-bank intervention in the currency markets failed to
stave off a 25% collapse in Thai baht against the dollar. The
Thai crash  the fruit of a property-price bubble and unwise
foreign borrowing by Thai companies  has signalled the end
of a long party and has unsettled the country's volatile political

Indonesia's currency, the rupiah, has also fallen sharply,
triggering a fall in the Jakarta stock market. Worries about
stability are intertwined with questions over the succession to
76-year-old President Suharto. It is no coincidence that
Indonesia's "national car" project  a Suharto family venture
that many people see as the embodiment of everything that is
wrong in the country  has the ill-fated Kia as its joint-venture

Last week the Indonesian central bank seemed to have
stopped the run on the rupiah, which has dropped 20% so far
this year. But the price has been high: interest rates have
soared, damaging local businesses that have borrowed

In Malaysia, where the domestic property market is
overheated and bank exposure to property loans is high, the
central bank hardly bothered to fight. At first, when the ringgit
fell against the dollar, Mahathir Mohamed, the prime minister,
attacked "foreign speculators", muttered about conspiracies
hatched by George Soros and threatened capital controls.
Then, realising how savage rises in interest rates would
damage business, the government made it clear the ringgit
would not be defended any further. It promptly fell.

Singapore has allowed its once rock-solid dollar to decline
gently to defend its competitive value against neighbouring

Only Hong Kong has seemed immune from attack by the
speculators because its currency is pegged to the American
dollar and backed by 42 billion in reserves. But this stability
is something of a double-edged sword. Tourism and services
industries now fear that Hong Kong's costs, already among
the region's highest, will make them much less competitive
than operators in neighbouring countries.

Almost every country in the region is coming to terms with
sharply changing market conditions, brought about in part by
China's rise. But Korea's troubles, rooted in its
export-oriented heavy industrial base, could be harder to
resolve than the problems affecting countries focused on
more flexible sectors such as light manufacturing and services.

Kia is Korea's eighth-largest chaebol and the third-biggest
carmaker. It is the fourth big group to face a crunch this year.
Hanbo Steel collapsed under 4.7 billion of debt last January,
bringing to light a bribery scandal over loans. Hanbo's
chairman, some bankers and several politicians have gone to
jail for their part in its downfall. The collapse, the biggest
bankruptcy for a decade in South Korea, was followed by
insolvencies at Sammi Steel and Jinron, a distiller.

As policymakers try to pilot the economy out of a downturn,
the chaebol collapses threaten to throw things off course.
The banks are dangerously exposed to loans extended to
chaebols under the clubby business culture of the South
Korean elite. One, Korea First Bank, is reported to have
made loans in excess of its equity capital to the four troubled
conglomerates. Some foreign banks in Korea are also said to
be exposed to Kia.

The threat of a chain of bankruptcies has spurred state
intervention. Within 48 hours of the announcement that Kia
was to seek bankruptcy protection, the Bank of Korea, the
central bank, released fresh capital to avoid a liquidity crisis
while officials told the state-controlled Korea Development
Bank to redeem Kia Steel's convertible bonds.

Kia has now become the first chaebol to benefit from an
emergency safety net established after the earlier collapses.
The government has more or less ordered banks to form an
alliance to support ailing groups by restructuring their debts.

The authorities have already had to pay a high price for such
aggressive intervention. Last week the central bank was
obliged to make 600m available to seven banks  including
Korea First Bank, which faced credit-rating difficulties
abroad  as a result of their exposure to poor-quality loans.
Standard & Poor's, the American rating agency, has reduced
its rating of Korea First Bank to BBB minus, only one grade
above junk bonds. The cost of government involvement is
certain to mount and Korean banks are just as certain to be
subject to higher rates on foreign credits. Meanwhile the
Korean currency, the won, has fallen.

The South Korean government also stepped in to prevent
Kia's network of subcontractors unravelling, reversing its
earlier hard line against a bail-out. Subcontractors are an
integral part of Korea's industrial system, which is similar to
Japan's. A spread of bankruptcies down the supply chain
would pose a political dilemma for President Kim Young
Sam, who has already faced riots and strikes in a wave of
labour unrest earlier this year.

Kia workers have rallied to demand state support, while
unions had threatened strikes if the subcontractors were
allowed to go bust. Last week the finance and economy
ministry announced 700m in credit guarantees to 260 small
companies that had suffered from Kia's collapse. At least 10
have already gone bust while the group's motor and vehicle
divisions have failed to honour some promissory notes.

Whatever the cost of the bail-out, analysts say it is hard to
see how Kia can retain its present sprawling structure. The
car division, which last year managed reasonable profits, is
squeezed between Hyundai and Daewoo, two formidable
competitors. The South Korean market is saturated: there are
six big carmakers with the capacity to turn out 3.95m vehicles
a year but annual sales are only 3m. A recent promotional
drive, offering discounts of up to 30%, has spurred sales but
seems unsustainable.

Kia's entanglement with Indonesia's controversial "national
car" project is not a source of comfort. But its main problems
lie in its expansion into steel and construction using borrowed
money. Kia Steel is now its biggest lossmaker, its losses
contributing to a group debt of about twice that which sank
Hanbo Steel.

Forged in a corporate atmosphere of consensus and
protectionism, the chaebols are now being forced to face the
fact that opening up to the global economy brings risks and
change as well as prestige and business advantages. The
question is whether South Korea's fragile political system, its
social fabric and its battered financial sector can overcome
the challenge of putting change into practice.

The outcome will be watched by other Asian tiger
economies, which are just waking up to the new terms of
trade that have come about as China has emerged as an
influential player. The certainties of the 1980s and early
1990s have become part of history.

Next page: Sharewatch - Rufus Olins

(Sun Aug 24 1997 10:08)
The best of all worlds:
Several of the factors which are currently powering the upward move in the stock market will do 180s and become factors powering the move down when the time comes.

o Balanced budget: Much of the increased tax revenues are due to the rising stock market. Many billions of dollars in capital gains taxes are being paid on the trillions of dollars in paper profits currently being registered. As this turns to trillions of dollars in losses billions of dollars in capital losses will be deducted from taxes. Corporate taxes will fall with the economy. Thus the deficit will grow perhaps rapidly.

o Growing economy: Again the stock market is powering strong growth in the economy. A down ward moving stock market will stop most of this growth dead. Thus an even slower growing economy

o Corporate profits: A good chunk of the profits is due to lower pension contributions as the stocks the pension funds hold become more valuable. When the stock value falls, funds must be diverted from the profit stream to fund the pension funds. Thus even lower profits.

o A manic public: Its wonderful knowing you will retire in ten years a millionare ( no matter your current age ) . Makes you want to put even more stock purchases on the old credit card. Comes the cold dawn however, its hell knowing you have very little retirement funds at all. You may even think about selling some stocks ( at least you can get half what you paid ) and buying some of that new bull market, gold.

In short, the knife cuts both ways.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 10:10)
Miz ( Most recent equity strategy ) : I suggest you visit GOLD-EAGLE, which has 410 web pages of gold information - an entire rainbow spectrum of all that is GOLD. Historic to present:

(Sun Aug 24 1997 10:17)
US market too dependent on foreign investment
Another item of interest for the 'paper bulls' to consider...German economy is picking up steam.... This article from Investors Daily
Perspective The Buck Stops Here

Date: 8/25/97

Foreign money has been pouring into the U.S. - and not just into the coffers
of political parties. That strikes some as a reason for worry. Does America
depend too much on foreign capital?

It's not the first time people have fretted about this.

Back in the 1980s, they feared tax cuts had caused Americans to spend
too much, leaving too little savings to finance their debts. The nation was at
the mercy of big foreign savers.

But those fears were misplaced then - and are now.

When America's capital account is in surplus, it means Americans are
investing less abroad than foreigners are investing here. As the capital
account surplus grows, so do the misguided fears about dependence on
foreign capital.

A capital account surplus does mean that Americans don't save enough to
finance all the investment opportunities found in the U.S. That much is true.

But as the experience of the 1980s shows, the gloom over inadequate
savings should be replaced by cheers about all the opportunities for
profitable investment.

Did the 1980s tax cuts cause a capital account surplus?

To a certain extent, yes. Tax cuts revived the U.S. economy so greatly that
it gave people more money to invest - and more reason to invest it here.

From 1982 to 1984, the capital account surplus did not expand because
foreigners were sending oodles of money to the U.S.

In fact, capital inflows to the U.S. rose by just 9% in '82 to '84. The
amount grew because Americans invested their money at home, instead of
abroad. The amount of capital outflow from the U.S. collapsed by more
than 80%.

Today's capital account surplus has been rising for the same reason:
economic health. Growth has been steady in the U.S., especially compared
to the moribund economies in Europe and Japan. That attracts investors -
from all nations.

Last year, the U.S. attracted some $548 billion from abroad, the vast
majority of which came from private sources and went into Treasury
securities. Americans, including the government, invested $352 billion

How does this differ from the capital account surpluses of the 1980s?
Today, the growth in the surplus has stemmed from both sources: more
capital from abroad, and more capital going abroad.

In part, this is a logical result of the trend towards freer trade in goods and
services - and the capital needed to pay for them. All of these things will
flow where they are most in demand.

But the fact that America needs capital from abroad isn't something to be
scared of. The reason it needs capital is that its prospects for growth are so
good, as witnessed by the spectacular performance of the stock market
and the job market.

For that very reason, capital is flowing in from Europe and Japan. Central
banks there are pumping out money to try to revive their economies. It's not
working, so the money goes where the growth is.

Growing trade - whether in goods, services or the capital that finances their
production - does mean some changes. All countries depend on each other
more. That means that the foreign-exchange value of the dollar will play a
growing role in the health of American companies.

And the dollar is now more sensitive to changes that make foreign savers
less likely to send their money to the U.S.

That could happen because currency devaluations wipe out the savings of
the private sector - as in Thailand and Mexico. Or it could happen because
growth finally picks up in other major economies, giving the Japanese and
Europeans a reason to invest at home.

Both of these events might send foreign money fleeing U.S. markets,
resulting in higher interest rates and lower stock prices.

If it wanted to, America could ''cure'' its dependence on foreign capital. It's
happened several times in the last 20 years, in 1991 ( almost ) and in
1979-81. The ''cure''? Recession.

As countries integrate their economies, all of them - especially the U.S., the
world's economic leader -need to focus on growth. Obsessing over foreign
capital is a mistake, especially when it just reflects the fact that America is a
haven for growth.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 10:32)
18% of last week inflows -toward int'l funds
A sign of things to come?
International funds took in $1.2 billion in the recent week, or 20 percent of the funds, he said. Most of the money was aimed at
emerging markets, but funds focused on Asia and Latin America were still seeing small outflows, Adler said.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 10:43)
Middle East -pot boiling
Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat predicted Saturday that relations with Israel would deteriorate
further, saying his people should prepare for the worst.
In a veiled threat of violence, he said the Palestinians' options were open, but would not say what
those options were. "No one reveals their cards," he told journalists in the West Bank town of

(Sun Aug 24 1997 10:55)
VRONSKY: The FRB Washington site seems to be down now. Try this as an alternate.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 10:57)
To VRONSKY (:-))))
Dear Vronsky:

In reply to you problem with the Fed's site may I humbly suggest ( :- )

I suggest you visit GOLD-EAGLE, which has 410 web pages of gold information - an entire rainbow spectrum of all that is GOLD. Historic to present:

( :- ) ) Just thought it was fitting ! ( :- ) )


(Sun Aug 24 1997 11:01)
Donald...guess what?
MONEY MARKET: Brazil's deteriorating current
account position has become the main issue for markets here. Worries about current account could spell higher interest rates,
especially if the Asian foreign currency crisis boils up again.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 11:05)
Feds refunding again this week
Ryan said the market will be focused on next week's 2- and 5-year note auctions as well as Thursday's revision to
second-quarter GDP, with economists having raised their forecasts on this week's narrower-than expected trade gap.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 11:17)
FRONT: Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln; how did you enjoy the show?

(Sun Aug 24 1997 11:17)
bw- 'In short, the knife cuts both ways.'

Excellent points, virtuous and vicious circles. Where one factor
coming into play attracts another in propping up a rising market, on the
flip side a departing prop kicks out another. As evidenced in the
developing countries with manic-depressive capital flows, both foreign
and domestic. An additional point-- American institutions and the
investing public have developed a taste for overseas investing to a
larger extent than previous eras. In a steep or protracted downturn there
is a lot of savings subject to departure for greener pastures.

On another topic, the FASB has had a proposal for some time to
expense stock options as a charge to earnings, a proposal vigorously
opposed by corporate America as I understand it. Someone stated here
that Microsoft reported earnings last year of $3.5B and granted $3.1B
in stock options to employees. Expensing those options per FASB proposal
would elevate Microsoft's p/e to 650, an absurd level. The same expensing
of options to Netscape's earnings, which actually has some these days,
would impact their earnings -247% according to a recent WSJ article.
I don't know how much the options route of employee and management
compensation has increased in recent years but I trust that with the
stellar performance of the equities markets, the exercise of options
and thus expense, per FASB proposal, is up sharply. It would be
interesting to see a calculation of the S&P 500 p/e ratio taking into
account the FASB proposal to charge the expense of options to the bottom

(Sun Aug 24 1997 11:20)
To: Vronsky
Thank you. What is Gold-Eagle? I have noticed that some regular members of Kitco also post their articles there. Are you traders, investors, underwriters, or analysts? The Buy side or the sales side? I have never seen my topics, like technology to cut production costs or the environmental issues.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 11:22)
2BRO2B: And, if you really want to know what earning are, mark to market each reporting period the current value of derivatives used for currency hedges and cash management techniques.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 11:22)
Mooney - Your charts are as good as mine. On a hourly chart short term support is between 4.53-4.55 and resistance at 4.77. A close above 5.25 on the monthly could really get the ball rolling. Sending you a couple charts.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 11:29)
NOMERCY: Did you see my post about Inda at 6:53 this morning?
ROEBEAR: Thanks for that analysis site at 9:13 AM

(Sun Aug 24 1997 11:33)
Pressures building in India.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 11:37)
"The economy has a copper roof" or "the metal with a PhD in economics"

(Sun Aug 24 1997 11:38)

can you post those charts for our perusal?


(Sun Aug 24 1997 11:43)
Hello Miz:
why don't you try this site:


They are UK based and their stuff is free but delayed by a month


(Sun Aug 24 1997 11:46)
lets try this again

Miz, this is the correct address


(Sun Aug 24 1997 11:49)
FASB vs Greenspan & top executives
Donald -2BRO2B re: FASB
evitt, for his part, strongly defended the FASB from all
comers in a speech in May to the Economic Club of Detroit.
He noted that executive compensation is now often tied to the
value of a company's stock price, which has the effect of
encouraging executives to oppose anything that might disturb
steady earnings reports and upset stock market investors.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 11:49)
If you have a mortgage you should read this post. Could save you money.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 11:53)
to heap smart Injun
CHEROKEE: RE YOUR 08:56...from one "savage" to another, "right on 'bro!'

(Sun Aug 24 1997 11:56)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

30 day FSAGX chart looks STRONG
also 30 day regression table of ALL
Fidelity Select funds show FSAGX
in second place. Defense in first.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 11:57)
Donald - derivatives marked to market. Another FASB proposal vigorously
opposed because the earnings would be all over the map quarter to quarter
as or if I understand it. Derivatives market - from a few hundred billion
face value at the start of the decade to $60T or somesuch in a few years.
I'd trace that exponential growth to the currencies having no moorings,
locking in time/currency relationships through derivatives as a surrogate
for sound money. It's difficult to engineer and build a dam project
in a foreign country spanning years when a ruler foot and lb. weight vary
25-50% up or down in any given twelve month period.

It is said that $1.3T zips around the forex any given day, each
trade involving two or more currencies amounting to $3.2T total.
According to Ms. Shelton's studies, only about %10 can be attributed
to legitimate business purposes, the other 90% simply exchanging money
for the sake of exchanging money, employing legions of the best and
brightest ( ? ) and highly trained. She reports that in '94 when the
EMS broke down that 60% of profits in some of the international
investment banking organizations were made in the foreign exhange
departments. An entire industry sprung up out of absurdity, made
possible, profitable and practical by the avoidance of hard thinking
to avoid unpopular hard decisions for short term political advantage
at the expense of long term harm. At least in that the people ultimately
responsible are and will be held to account, there's poetic justice.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 12:08)
2BRO2B: You bring up a good point about the number of jobs involved in this whole mess. Suppose, by some miracle, a gold standard were reinstated overnight. How many people would be unemployed in the banking and investment business? A lot. Then toss in real tax simplification? A whole lot more. Going off gold has created an enormous constituency that will do everything they can to keep us from going back. Then there is the computer industry. How many can we scrap if we go back to gold? A lot.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 12:09)
China -only 'imports' they're keenly interested
U.S. to lift ban on nuclear power plant
exports to China
WASHINGTON ( Nikkei ) - The Clinton Administration plans to lift the
current ban on exports of nuclear power plants to China as the first step
in reviving a bilateral pact for the peaceful use of atomic energy. It will
be timed to coincide with the U.S. visit of Chinese President Jiang Zemin
and is expected to be the highlight achievement of his trip.

The pact has been shelved for 12 years as a result of concerns that
China was exporting nuclear-related technology. This was compounded
by the Tiananmen incident in June 1989.

In ongoing talks, which commenced more than one year ago, China has
agreed to set up laws to prohibit the export of nuclear technology. In
addition, the country will cooperate with the international framework to
prevent the spread of nuclear technology based on the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty and the International Atomic Energy

U.S. atomic power firms have been lobbying the government to lift the
ban on exports to China, which are expected to comprise a $20 billion
market in the future.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 12:09)
JOHN DISNEY: RE 9:47....from some posts here on Kitco ( I believe from Yellow Jacket ) ...I thought either he or Leather Jacket might be you posting under another name...Mighty glad you're back!!! So, this info is not true??? ( I hope not ) The "reasoning" was DD was not reg. with SEC. Please investigate and let me know. Many Thanks!!!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 12:12)
bw - thanks for the article. My take on derivatives, CMOs, etc. and their
dangers is that they've proven to be experimental instruments designed by
financial rocket scientists to operate in any reasonably foreseeable
environment. When those expectations are violated, as in the magnitude
and velocity of interest rate moves in '94, they've blown up. As in the
staid 170-year old British financial institution, Barings Bank,
evaporating on a random Friday afternoon. Poof. Gone. Don't let kids
play with chemistry sets unsupervised.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 12:17)
To Donald:

The show was fine, but I missed the ending because of an interruption. Inconsiderate to say the least!


(Sun Aug 24 1997 12:23)
HongKong dollar
Hong Kong's enmeshment with China makes the US dollar peg an increasing oddity but for the moment Sir
Donald defends it as an important symbol of stability and continuity.

"Our political stability depends on our economic vibrancy," he says, "and that of course is inextricably
linked to our currency.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 12:41)
Donald- 'Going off gold has created an enormous constituency that
will do everything they can to keep us from going back.'

Most government policy change is rapidly 'colonized' on the way to
intractable institution by the interested in seeing continuance of the
new status quo. I submit that if not for the interference of WWII and its
demands, the CCC camp complex would yet be a going concern. People move
quickly, government slowly and deliberately, a good thing.

It's in these regards that I find a danger in financial system
convulsions, chaos, runs, panic. Things implemented in crises, as in
takeovers of functions of the private financial sector temporarily
are rapidly colonized and develop a life of their own for continuation
of the new regime, while government decides what to do next. Things
implemented for benign and innocent reasons by benign and innocent
people show a propensity to attract a succeeding harder set of character.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 13:00)
Cherokee - Here they are....I think.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 13:01)
# 2

(Sun Aug 24 1997 13:01)
Input on new viewing system
BART - I've lurked since the "beginning," and post in fits and starts. I have a concern regarding your new posting system, from a utilitarian point of view. Although my internet provider allows unlimited access, I still don't like to tie up time on-line when I don't have to - so that the network gets clogged for others trying to get on. Under the "old" system, I would download the entire file and read it off-line. If there were links that interested me, I would either get back on-line or make note to group them for review later. I always knew the extent of comments, because I could scroll to the end & check. Now, I don't know how far along discussions have progressed and I have to stay on-line to refresh every 25 posts. This is my concern, and it may not be of importance to anyone else. I realize you listen to the comments of the group as a whole and do an excellent job of tailoring your ( amazingly ) free service to the group's collective wishes. Thank you for continuing to provide this forum. I have great confidence that, no matter which direction the minor tweeking takes, the end result will continue to be positive and viable for regulars, sporadic posters such as myself, and consummate lurkers as well.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 13:03)
To fjksaj
Thank you. Everybody is involved in gold business, but the information sets are different. For my boss, the Value Lines and the Northern Miner are the Holy Bible, and he does not believe the Internet information. I have started my career with the Bloomberg terminal. If information is not updated daily, it has little value. The Value Line is a kind of supplement. I LIKE Yahoo Quotes better. Interesting.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 13:09)
@Thank you Bart
Bart, thank you very much for this big improvement!

For those of you folks who are having problems with reading back and forth, please use the buttons: oldest first,full text, and always scroll down, using the date for your starting point.
If you want to go back again re-use the date and submit always with the oldest on top button.
Happy endings...!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 13:33)
@Tips for running Kitco
I forgot to add that you have to open a different windows for each segment of 25, this way it run great.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 13:35)
@Tips for running Kitco
I forgot to add that you have to open a different windows for each segment of 25, this way it run great.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 13:51)
Watch the Asian markets tonight - they may lead the fear, not the DOW!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 14:10)
OLIVER: How do you open those "different windows"? Bear in mind that I am computor semi-illiterate. Thank you.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 14:12)
I liked Kitco the old way.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 14:16)

You use "Advanced Get" by "Trading Techniques"?

Who Cares
(Sun Aug 24 1997 14:16)
Depressions & Capital & Labor

Empirically, depressions have helped labor. Yes, during the
Great Depression, a peak of 25% of the population suffered, but
the remaining 75% benefitted from lower land prices, lower
manufactured good prices, etc.

Two things must happen now in order to mimic previous depressions.
We need to see a drop in the average workweek of 15-20%, and
concurrently, we need to see a drop in land prices of 50% or so.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 14:23)
ALL....I would like to make a suggestion to all of us....Since most of us will now be running in the full text mode, those who wish to post a document from another source should give a brief summary of the document and then post the link.....While I like staying abreast of news, some of it is not of interest...If you summarize and give the link then we can choose what we wish to view without having to scan through 100 lines of something we do not wish to read.....THANKS...

Who Cares
(Sun Aug 24 1997 14:26)
FRB Data

Vronsky - the Feds don't need to bring a site down to "pad the
results" of t-bond sales. All they have to do is just post a
fradulent number. That way, it's "just a computer mistake", oops.

I think ( but do not KONW ) that it would be difficult to verify
the numbers. I check the Federal Debt often, but since the
government shutdown, I've seen so many "mistakes" and inconsitencies
that I no longer consider it trustworthy.

John Disney
(Sun Aug 24 1997 14:29)
for Savage
I dont know if such a story is true or not. But I have never heard
of it. But then I dont hear about lots of things. It would be helpful if you could reveal the source or the reference for this story.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 14:30)
NotaGoldBug - Yes I do.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 14:31)

Cool..! Me to..

Who Cares
(Sun Aug 24 1997 14:33)
Monday Open

Check out S&P500 and Nasdaq. Looks interesting. : ) DJIA could
be 100 points down early on. : )

(Sun Aug 24 1997 14:35)

You obviously use their ( trading techniques ) data.. I trade stocks, but desire
hourly bars 'so much' that will eventually convert to futures; just for the additional

(Sun Aug 24 1997 14:37)
Savage, more simple,we need only 2 Windows active.
One is in the oldest mode first. That one we keep scrolling down and hit the NEXT at the end.We have to use the BACK and FORWARD buttons if you want to move and keep everythings.
The SECOND Windows is use with the NEWEST on top to read constantly...Use the SUBMIT button to REFRESH.
It is working!
PS: Punch Cntl+N to create a new Windows.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 14:40)
NotaGoldBug - I knew you did after viewing one of the charts you posted. I'm not sure if I set these up the right way so others can view them. Yours must have worked.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 14:40)
Keep it simple
When corporate profits decrease the stock markets will drop.
When the stock markets drop demand for goods and services will
decrease causing an inflationary recession. During the next recession
Federal and State deficits will soar. When deficits increase interest
rates will increase and the dollar will plunge. Gold will benefit
during the whole trip. So watch those earnings reports!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 14:42)
To Bart
JRL....Good post, sums up my situation regarding this site.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 14:44)

Your chart worked, for me, beautifully.. I downloaded to desktop and it
opened in MS paint..

Also, nice gann analysis.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 14:53)
NAILZ: Some/many of the stories I post have been obtained using my password. You will miss some unless I lift them and post the whole thing.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 14:54)
@WAY too much time on my hands

Here are a few anagrams I found amusing. MILLENIUM BUG--Lining mule bum, Immune gun bill, Immune bulling, Big null immune. EL NINO WEATHER--Ate inner whole, Real whine tone, When air not lee, Lit one era when, Warn the lee ion. You too can do this at--

(Sun Aug 24 1997 15:05)
Iron law of wages @ Classical Economists (Labour-Gold: Control is required)
Iron Law of Wages: ( David Ricardo's ) economic dictum, that workers could
only be paid a subsistence wage, and any funds beyond that must be
extorted from them forcibly by tax increases.

A statute of 1572, declaring England to be "with rogues,vagabonds and
sturdy beggars exceeding pestered," decreed flogging, branding, and as
a last resort death as a felon-for unlicensed begging. The author of a
tract written in 1609 speaks of "our land abounding with swarms of idle
persons, having no means of labour to relieve their misery...If we seek
not some ways for their foreign employment, we must provide shortly more
prisons and corrections for their bad conditions."

The companies repeatedly resisted efforts to introduce the eight-hour day
and they won support from a Nova Scotia Commission on Hours of Labour in
1910. "No one can deny," the commission reported, "that a day of twelve
hours' manual labour, or of twelve or ten hours of attendance on ovens,
furnaces, and machines, amid the conditions, is long, but; "as business
stands at present, the men cannot live on 8 hours of pay, and the
company cannot afford 12 hours pay for 8 hours work."

Parliamentary committee on the eight-hour day in 1910. Plant superinten-
dent noted that the men did nothing but work and sleep: " We get better
results from our men where we have them work 11 and 13 hours," Shortening
the work week, especially by shutting down on Sundays or holidays,
created *constant trouble* and *dissipation*" "It seems to give them
too much time off; too much chance of spending money or to get around"

Net Site: ( use find-"wages" )

All that the worker need do is to work: hence, a robot ( from the Czech, robota, meaning work ) . The requirement is to reproduce "the cheapest...worker with the minimum amount of requirements." It is as if young Rossum were answering the desires of the classical economists and their "iron law of wages." Only robots are not people. "Mechanically," as Domin defines them, "they are more perfect than we are, they have an enormously developed intelligence, but they have no soul" ( 17 ) .

In fact, we are told that the cost of producing a robot has been brought down within 15 years from $10,000 to $150!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 15:09)
WHO CARES: It is true that during the Depression the unemployment rate reached 25% but you are wrong about the other 75%. I am not aware that numbers were kept, I have been unable to find any since your post, but "a lot" of people were part timed. My father was able to find a job 50 miles away, a long distance in those days, for three days a week. He was oficially employed but had to find and pay for a place to live those three days and had all the extra expense of travel. In places where people were laid off many of those who remained agreed to work 12 hour days for the same pay. I had a friend who worked for the phone company. He was required to spend all day Saturday going door to door trying to get people to reconnect their phones. He was not paid for that. Two of my uncles and my oldest cousin joined the military. The competition was fierce to get in, long waiting lines at the recruiting office. I am sure there are thousands of stories like that. Times were very tough.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 15:20)
Re: Who Cares, depressions
Who Cares: The last depression was hard even on most who had jobs. I was a child and my father did manage to work most of the time. I remember lots of people sleeping in our house at times. Manufactured items were perhaps cheap but still too expensive to be afforded by many. Many people lived two and three generations to the household. Not that any of this was bad, there were always free games for the kids. But often we were excused from the room and the adults got serious. Shouting and crying were common. Thinking back on it the adults were under constant economic pressure. Forget buying land, it was not even considered by most. Just paying the rent, eating and keeping the house heated was a constant struggle for most. What about good jobs? You took pay cuts, took them gladly and often. Better than losing the job. Professionals and the self-employed often took used goods in exchange for their services. And there was always some one in the extended family that needed help. The better off were expected to foot most of this bill. I'll say this about the last depression people were a lot closer as human beings. There did not seem to be near as much social strife as today. Perhaps because there were a lot fewer things and more people in your life.

The thing I'll never forget about the depression was my dads stories about looking for work. He would offer his services free for a couple of weeks to the owner of some shop. If the owner liked his work perhaps he would be paid. Always the answer was the same. "No because I'll probably end up liking you kid and you may do good work. But we are just making it here and cannot afford to hire anyone else." I guess the truth was if a job became available you were expected to give it to someone in the extended family who was out of work.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 15:25)
Is there someone on here from Japanese big city who would like to try to make a buck with me ??? E-mail for

(Sun Aug 24 1997 15:31)
DONALD...Didn't mean to point that at one person...It was meant to be a generalization for all of us...You post links most of the time...

(Sun Aug 24 1997 15:36)
"The Reagan Boom" ( a not very complementary book review )

(Sun Aug 24 1997 15:41)
Dont Delay EURO, but... (August 22, 1997)
Tlaga has a somewhat extreme view of the Federal Reserve monetary system and the EURO. You may NOT agree, but his depth of research is admirable:

(Sun Aug 24 1997 15:41)
NAILZ: I didn't take it personally, just trying to help. Some of my best posts ( IMHO ) come from the London Financial Times. Mabye Bart will let us register under a pseudonym and use kitco as a password for all of us.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 15:56)
APH....I have your work e-mail address from some prior conversations...Do you mind if occasionally I e-mail you and ask what you are doing in the markets right now ???? I like to bounce my opinions off someone else from time-to-time....This trading is risky enough as it is and going to get more so as the volitility heats up...Would be more than willing for you to do the same...

(Sun Aug 24 1997 16:04)
So, how about those beans?

George Cole
(Sun Aug 24 1997 16:26)
Gold hedging mines not helping their shareholders

Gold producers in hedging quandary



THE reluctance of SA's gold mining industry to hedge its output has put it in a
precarious position. With the gold price near $320 an ounce, only five of the country's
30 mines are profitable: Anglogold's Ergo, Elandsrand and Vaal Reefs; Gengold's
Beatrix; and Gold Fields' Driefontein.

Making these points in Mining Journal's latest newsletter, editor Paul Burton also
suggests that when the full cost of production is taken into account, and if the gold price
remains at current levels for several quarters, "many mines outside SA may survive, but
few will thrive".

His analysis shows the weighted average price received by the Australian gold mining
industry in the latest quarter - when gold fell to a 12-year low - was $460, or $108 an
ounce above the spot price. "What better endorsement for the aggressive hedging
strategies of the Australian producers," says Burton. The received price was also well
above the Australian industry average cash operating costs of $286.

The SA average received price was $362, only $10 an ounce above spot and not much
ahead of average cash operating costs of $312.

In a denouncement of hedging, Julian Baring, who recently headed Mercury Asset
Management, says some companies claim they have made paper profits of $1.8-billion
by selling forward. "Unfortunately for their shareholders, their perspicacity has been
rewarded with a fall of $13-billion in the market capitalisation of the gold industry,
seven times the figure they have reputedly saved."

Baring also points out that, measured against the recent gold price peak in February
1996, the industry's value has dropped by $30-billion.

On central banks, Mr Baring says that, taking their cue from the miners, they have sold
1 306 tons of gold in the past three years. "This represents a mere 4% of their total gold
reserves and raised only $15.7-billion. But by selling it they have been instrumental in
reducing the value of what remains by $68billion." - Financial Times

Who Cares
(Sun Aug 24 1997 16:43)

Prior to the Great Depression, the average workweek was
48 hours. Afterwards, the standard 40-hour week emerged.

The Great Depression bottomed after three years. Three years.

I submit that the various anecdotes about part-time work,
pain and suffering of the Great Depression are not anywhere
near as painful as the alternative would have been...

A continuous drop in income every year, more and more part-time
jobs, two-income families, extending into the future for
twenty years.

Is the dark, stagnant period of 1991-1994 for the next twenty
or thirty years preferrable to the Great Depression?

Is a breakup on oligopic entities preferrable to unending
lack of opportunity, ever-increasing waste of resources,
political violence, amidst a dishonest and disreputable
culture of nepotism?

(Sun Aug 24 1997 16:44)
Federal Reserve chairman Dr Alan Greenspan has the US market
on edge about his views on sharemarket valuations.

Who Cares
(Sun Aug 24 1997 16:51)
Depression & Stability

Ultimatelyl, what arose out of the Great Depression was middle
class, a culture of fairness, incentive, etc. I am honestly
surprised that anyone questions this. Is the current state of
Russia preferrable? It's been EIGHT years since their collapse,
and it's not over yet.

I would consider three years of hard times to be a bargain. The
current system is aimed solely at preserving empty promises that
can never be honored. Does anyone here truly believe that a
never-ending battle to honor false promises is better than an
acknowledgement of default and subsequent cancellation?

Personally, I prospered pretty well during 92-96. But prior
to that, I worked my ass off for fifteen years, never getting
anywhere. And what I see ahead of me is another fifteen years
of falling wages, part-time work, rising taxes, OKC bombings,
Chinese payoffs, etc.

I have no desire to spend another fifteen years like that.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 16:56)
Nailz - You or anyone else can e mail me anytime and I'll try to answer your questions.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 17:15)
Feds comments on Gold
By Steven K. Beckner

WASHINGTON ( MktNews ) - The relatively low gold price may only partially reflect optimism
among international investors, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
The decline in the price of gold this year to its lowest level in four years also reflects the
attractiveness of other assets, says the Bank's August edition of the Cleveland Fed publication
Economic Trends.
Gold, long a hedge against inflation and chaos, was up $5 Friday to $331.70 per ounce, but longer
term it has been on a steady decline, hitting a 12 month low of $318. The yellow metal's fall has been
cited by Fed officials and others as an indication of reduced inflation and inflationary expectations.
But the Cleveland Fed says there may be another explanation for gold's decline. "While this may
indicate a sanguine attitude among international investors ( gold being a traditional safe-harbor asset in
stormy times ) , it may also reflect the strength of alternatives such as dollar-denominated assets and
world stock markets."
Apparently written before the recent resurgence of bond yields, the publication points to a
flattening of the yield curve and says "this flattening suggests a slowdown of real economic growth
over the next year." It refers to a 65 basis point yield spread between 3-year and 3-month securities
and an 86 basis point 10-year, 3-month spread.
As of Friday afternoon, those spreads had widened to 99 and 130 basis points respectively.
At the time it was written, market rates were falling, while the federal funds rate was being held at
5.5%, and the Cleveland Fed staff article observes, "Some perceive an implicit tightening of policy
when market interest rates are falling and the intended federal funds rate is held constant." It adds,
"At the same time that short-term rates have declined, the implied yield on federal funds futures has
flattened out, indicating that earlier expectations of an increase in the federal funds rate have greatly

(Sun Aug 24 1997 17:17)
Gold price
Which gold price is correct, 326.8 in Kitco or 329.7 in Bloomberg? Do you know why their prices are different?

(Sun Aug 24 1997 17:17)
Who Cares: Welcome to the third world. see you next weekend. Good luck all.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 17:20)
APH......Thanks....I will ask from time-to-time and I hope you will feel free to do the same.....

(Sun Aug 24 1997 17:39)
Labour Union-Non-union @ The Commodity to watch,
Vronsky @ 15:41 RE: Tlaga Material, I found it very informative. Yet,
one is left with such a depressed feeling. The depth of the madness that
exists, world wide, is beyond most average citizens to come to grips with

The reality of the absolute control of all our lives. One has to also
determine, how is it possible to protect the lives of those we love.
That's *if*, you can possibily comprehend the depth of control, and
realize that you and your loved one's are in danger. ( Loss of freedom )

The only political party that exists, is *one* control party. We are expected, to believe that many outstanding and considerate, political parties exist, such as LIBERTARIAN - LIBERAL - CONSERVATIVE -
Choose one, and the difficulties of life will be fixed. ( B.S eh! )

In fact, there is only two ( 2 ) political parties. As presented by a fellow poster here at Kitco. "Those citizens that want to be controlled,
( Autocratic ) and those citizens that do not want to be controlled,
( opposition ) ." ( Sheep and Shepards, eh! )

The various political parties, and their finances are no different then
the drug lords, financing the campaign against drugs, "just say NO"
Such funding from drug lords, keeps the price of drugs at a high profit.

Consider, a Libertarian-Liberal-Conservative-Progressive-Socialist, did a
united public news-media blitz, to have the working people, the retired,
and students, etc, all USofA citizens, to purchase GOLD, and get rid of
paper I.O.Us. ( not likely, to much money made via, propaganda noise )

No, the powers to be, would never allow such a program, Yet, one never
hears from Organized Labour, demanding the dollar be supported by gold.
Has anyone realized that organized labour could bring a stop to the
Nothing=Something,thing, to a complete halt. Yes, organized labour is
on side, the supporter of control over the people, Religion is also,
simple eh!

Lots of noise, regarding the *freedom* and *rights*, it is all a lie.
But, all those citizens that are on side, are well paid.

Waco - Ruby Ridge - and others, are used, to prevent the full scale
support of individual freedom. Divide and conquer, it works, and what
a show it is to watch, a great time is always had, by all present.

No sir, go with the flow, do not fight the ticker tape, rewards are best,
by having a better understanding of the control system.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 17:42)
Any considered study and contemplation of the gold & silver mining stocks listed on the nyse, amex, and otc/ ( adr's, etc. ) ; will lead any discerning student of technical timing, to this conclusion: the precious metals are "gearing-up" for an "explosion" ... to the upside.
The early July "dent" in the fabric, was but a 'straw in the wind' ...enabling the "big boys" to laugh all over themselves, as they gulped up, the last of the 'weak-sisters'.
Almost every mining stock chart is mapping out a reverse, or inverted, head-and-shoulders, chart-pattern.
Investments in gold & silver mining stocks, gold & silver futures, and related call options, with expirations out another 3 to 6 months, will most likely reward the committed investor/trader, with more than satisfactory returns.
One caveat, however: beware a possible 'final fenzy' into US stocks, and a bull stampede, into "hyperbolic-infinity" for the "mutual-fund-herd".
However, nevertheless, evenso, notwithstanding ....
I think THIS, ..... has already happened.
Sincerely yours,
David Blair Macrory
San Diego

(Sun Aug 24 1997 17:43)
WHO CARES: Re Eight years of Russian Depression. They have been living from the capital of the Czars and what they were able to obtain from Eastern Europe since 1945. Their Depression will not be over until they have established a stable monetary system that encourages people to save in confidence. I think that requires gold and their recent announcements are in that direction. It would take at least 10 years to do it on their own. They are currently expecting outside help from the west. When the west crashes they will be on their own and eight years ahead of the west. They are used to hard times. We are not.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 17:47)
.....New Format.....

Kitco is nothing if not a work in progress and I am grateful for this site in any form, but some formats seem to be a bit more user friendly than others. When I first started reading these pages, I found so much of interest, I developed the habit of saving it all. There is much wisdom here and megabytes are cheap. I used to be able to save 5 days of full text messages, reduced then to 3, and now reduced again to the last 25 posts. Under the old system, I could save an entire month - in full text mode - in only six files. Now, assuming at least a hundred posts per day, a month of Kitco would consume more than one hundred files. It is no longer feasible to save the gathered wisdom here.

Bart, if the Kitco server were suddenly struck by a meteor, or iceberg, or charging bull, or if you were suddenly abducted by aliens ( been watching to much X-Files ) , or if the FBI tomorrow seized the Kitco server for a full scale investigation into the rabble rousing members within, invaluable archives would be lost. I am a bit fanatical about backing up data, as anything built by man is imbued with man's failings, and the cataloging of more than a hundred files a month will make this task too time consuming and render it effectively impossible.

I am sure you have your reasons for the changes and I dont ask that you explain them to me. If the system runs better with your new format, so be it. Could you offer some way for us to archive past days, or weeks, or even months? Perhaps you could offer a download site for Kitco files.

I also see the promissory search button has vanished. Did our hopes of a search function vanish with that ever hopeful button? Thanks for providing this forum in any form, it is a truly unique place on earth. Keep an eye out for icebergs.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 18:08)
I found it!
JOHN DISNEY: See DJ's post Fri Aug 22 @ 17:07....he refs. letter from bank of New York. Also see that Friday's posts from Yellow Jacket. Please ck into it as I value your SA analysis highly. Thank you.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 18:26)
@Donald GOLD Russia
Donald, Russia is the place on earth where the gold mining stocks have the greatest potential.
I admit there are big risks, but the rewards MAY be Extraordinaire.
The Russian currency is now stabilized and soon the ROUBLES will be reconfigured to one rouble for one $US.
Every once of gold had to be sold to the Governement.... till now, but things will change very very soon. The mining companies will sell to the world.
Some western mining companies boughted real cheep in those last depressed gold evaluation prices.
You are right, the Russians have to fight harder and they are ready to make BIG DEAL to get out of the mess.
The bold and well funded Mining Cies who jumped in this country few years ago will show strenght in a future gold price to the upside.


(Sun Aug 24 1997 18:40)
A timely & informative book
I just finished reading "Fear, Greed, and the End of the Rainbow - Guarding Your Assets in the Coming Bear Market" by Andrew Sarlos ( the Buddha of Bay Street ) and would strongly recommend it.

The author is Canadian and I don't know how easy it is to obtain internationaly. Sarlos is widely respected in Canada for his investment abilities. He has at times accounted for 10% of the volume on the TSE. He turned $250,000 in 1974 into $20 million today.

Chapter titles: 1 ) The Siren's Call, 2 ) Raging Bull: How We Got Here, 3 ) Mutual Fund Mania, 4 ) Market Moves, 5 ) The Virtuous and the Vicious: The Lessons of History, 6 ) Survival Stategies: The Case for Selling Too Soon, and 7 ) Crystal Ball.

His prediction is for a 3000 Dow and yet given the historical context the reader is left long term bullish. ( ie: this is business as usual given the long term cyclical nature of the markets. )

I enjoyed his quotes so much I'll repeat a few:
-"Financial genius is a rising stock market" - Galbraith
-"Never confuse a bull market and brains" - Wall Street Axiom
-"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria" - Sir John Templeton
-"Psycology can turn overnight like a key in a lock. Click - the party's over." - a New York broker on the eve of the 1969 bear market

He likes currently likes silver, gold, oil, fertilizer/agricultural companies and real estate but stresses that in a bear market, the goal is to preserve capital for the next bull.

Suggests that the equity market bear will probably occur due to liquidity problems with the US bond markets when the Japanese inevitably pull out or when money leaves the financal markets to invest in the real economy.

This is a very well written book by an obvious pro.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 18:45)
Supply and demand @ free market forces ? ( doctors exempt !)
O Doctors, do not want competition in their industry, priviledges of the
white coats ( suits ) . Let them compete, as do all others in a capitalist
system. Better service, lower rates, brings more customers,= profits, eh!
Gold = control, why not Health = control

Sunday, August 24, 1997

Government to reduce doctor glut by cuts in physician training

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The federal government has agreed to pay more than 1,000 teaching hospitals nationwide not to train doctors as part of an initiative aimed at reducing the glut of physicians, according to a published report.

The Washington Post reported Sunday that as part of the budget agreement with Republicans in Congress, the Clinton administration would extend the program to 1,025 teaching hospitals across the country. The cost was put at "hundreds of millions of dollars" although no exact figure was available.

Lan Man
(Sun Aug 24 1997 18:55)
KALGOORLIE, Australia, Aug 4 ( Reuter ) - Falling world gold prices may be taking a toll on Australia's mining industry, but they have had little impact on the special kind of nightlife found in this old prospecting town.

Nearly every night, Kalgoorlie's so-called "skimpy bars," where miners drink beer served by young barmaids clad in nothing more than underwear, are teeming.

"It's all in good fun and strictly look but don't touch," said Alan Hinchley, owner of the "Federal," a popular bar next door to an Aboriginal art gallery.

"The blokes come in and just want to relax and have a good look at the sheilas," he said. "No music, no other entertainment, just the sheilas."

Like almost everyone in Kalgoorlie, Hinchley criticises the the government for the recent sale of huge quantities of gold reserves by the central bank, a move which sent world bullion prices plummeting and now threatens to make all but the most efficient mines uneconomic to work.

Only 80 tonnes of gold remains in the vaults of the Australian central bank, less than a third of the nation's annual output.

Much of the gold comes from the rich lodes around Kalgoorlie, which some claim to be the richest square mile of gold-bearing land in the world.

Only South Africa and the United States mine more gold.

"This selling of gold is just not good for business, it's not good for Kalgoorlie," Hinchley explains before being interrupted by blasting from a nearby mine that rattles the floors of the Federal and causes glasses to shake.

In the Hay Street red light district, just around the corner from the Kalgoorlie police headquarters, there also is concern.

"How could the government sell all that gold," asked Leigh Breswick, who runs a Hay Street brothel.

Breswick said she was bracing for a drop off in business if the gold price stays depressed as fewer men will be able to afford her services.

"They really didn't think through what this would do to Kalgoorlie.

"We haven't seen much of a change yet, but we know it has to come if things don't change," she said.

Down the road at another skimpy bar, the Exchange Hotel, which caters to a younger set, a banner over the entrance asks Australia's prime minister John Howard to think about jobs being lost in the goldfields.

Young men and an increasing number of women flock to Kalgoorlie each year seeking jobs as miners, geologists or to operate heavy equipment.

The more entrepreneurial take up prospecting, hoping to strike it rich. Most don't.

But the dream lives on for many hoping to follow in the footsteps of Paddy Hannan and two fellow Irishmen who first found gold near the town in 1893.

The discovery sparked a gold rush that attracted thousands from around the world.

The U.S. president, Herbert Hoover, spent time as a mining engineer in Kalgoorlie as a young man, setting up an office in the Palace Hotel, where he fell in love with a barmaid.

Hoover later wrote her a poem that included the verses: "To a park in far Kalgoorlie, where the golden wattle grow, where you kissed me in the twilight of a summer long ago."

Who Cares
(Sun Aug 24 1997 18:58)

Oldman - If I wanted to live in the Third World, I would have
stayed in Los Angeles. : ) I sure hope the United States does
not pursue the path of the Third World. Lately, I have my
doubts. I wish I could get the wife to look at Argentina. : )

(Sun Aug 24 1997 19:15)
Not a skimpy post
Lan Man....Thanks for the report from Kalgoorlie, enjoyed it. Good post.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 19:31)
Any predictions for short term silver prices. Silver is currently at 4.89 per oz. Should I take profits on silver purchased at 4.50 per oz?

(Sun Aug 24 1997 20:05)
Dec. Gold down .90 @ 328.80.....Dollar mixed....

(Sun Aug 24 1997 20:08)
@what's up
Ted: Can you confirm silver price increase shown on Bart's chart? It spiked up big time. EBN isn't up yet.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 20:15)
@New England
JFK Jr. denounces his cousins in his magazine for their immorality. We all would love to see another Kennedy in the W House. Labor beats mgmt first of many I think. Most importantly POLLS SHOW SUPPORT FOR LABOR.I am a Gephardt supporter and the Labor issue should hopefully benefit the Left. THINGS ARE LOOKING UP OLDMAN!!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 20:17)
Nikkei 225 up 90.40 ( 0.48% ) ....I wouldn't want to see another Kennedy in the White House!....

(Sun Aug 24 1997 20:18)
@New England
DBC shows silver down kitco shows up significantly. Who is right. I am a Kitco Fan but I bet on DBC. What is up!!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 20:19)
Hi WW! DBC shows silver down 3.7 cents....

(Sun Aug 24 1997 20:22)
@ Name that Price
DBC GOLD down 1.4 and Silver down 3.7. Hopefully a reverse tomorrow. Where is kitco getting the info.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 20:22)
@that was quick!
Dec. Gold now down 1.40 @ 328.30....

(Sun Aug 24 1997 20:27)
Howdy Speed.....I'd trust the DBC version....Looks like we're off to a slow start but considering the volatility of late, the night is young!...
Will be keeping an eye on the Asian equity+ currency markets tonight to see if the late Dow comeback had an influence....

(Sun Aug 24 1997 20:33)
TO ALL: It seems that out of the 25 postings on each "page" half of them are you guys crying about the new format. Just thank your lucky stars that this site even exists in the first place, and , it's FREE to boot!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 20:37)
I too am not a fan of the new format. I check in about twice daily and find the new 25 comment page awkward to work with and scan through.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 20:39)
Gold mining industry is OK
Only event which drew my attention was the net loss of NEM, but 10Q of August 13 tells me that the loss is due to the merger, the change in acconting and the write-off of Santa fe property. It still has such beautiful low costs. No problem here.

About the gold commodity market and the US stock market, I am not so sure. The gold merket is certainly bearish. I still watch the US stock market very carefully.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 20:40)

ELDORADO: These communiqu were done at different times
appxomentally two weeks ago. I received them via an indirect/secure
source. I can tell by this system that others have tried to interpret and post
some of this gentlemans thoughts. The content is thought provoking to
myself and I hope to others. Here is a repost of the earlier work and appx.

Hello to all!

I had the opportunity to read a private reports/discussion over the last
week and thought this one would have some meaning to this group. The
thoughts come from a different culture and land mass so they required
conversion to Western style communication. Here is from one you dont
get here anymore.

Aug 01

Why do they view their debt in terms of yield when it only returnees
more of the same paper? The only way to convert the return on this
American debt is by buying something real with it. Only then do we have a
yield. So let us continue to view it as always before, using its pricing
gage to determine value, the US dollar.
The marketplace is never wrong to give a high price to a low value debt
as long as it uses an unreal  currency as a value gage. The Westerners
use paper to price paper and more paper to price more paper in an
endless quest to add value where value only exists in the minds of men. To
this end they say we have lost holding gold, but our families and children
cannot go broke? No one owes us and we owe no one, and we do not
convert paper to something real to create yield. We already own our
yield, no conversion needed!
Now they have created the illusion of gold in great supply to lower its
value in currency terms, and the Americans accept this. They do not
question that this illusion was done using paper contracts ,that do not hold
gold but are priced in currencies that offer a yield valued only in human
emotion terms. It is in this fashion that the greatest folly of Western
thinking will bring an end to an era of unvalued money. It will come about
as the entire world evolves into those that have military might using paper
currency maneuver little people countries with gold. But all gold is owned
by someone, somewhere and is not free for the taking. In the near future a
real value will be exchanged for gold and those that hold paper gold will
bid much higher to obtain what they thought they already had!

Remember now, a broke superpower ever destroys a simple country
that has gold, they will do business with them !
Big Trader

Aug 04

Now that most have converted paper gold contracts to real gold we have
but to view the great scramble from far away. To the advantage of
many, the Americans continue to position themselves in opposite fashion
from the third world. They sell all real gold to hold gold contracts and gold
At some point all of the gold will be off the market. Then the CBs will be
forced to become the full primary suppliers. This continued drift to CB
sales will no doubt destroy most bullish gold traders until London is forced
to sell real gold. Then the true volume will drive the price of gold in all
currencies to such heights that it will force a reevaluation of what was
primary supply in the first place. During this lock up time all Asians will
be happy with the conversion price during the summer of the last few
Know this to be true, the millions of ounces out on hidden contracts will
not be made up for by the CBs once the problem begins. During this time
the new currency price of the entire gold stock will equal all the paper
money in existence and the CBs will suddenly claim they have very little
gold in an effort to hide all they can.
Big Trader

This rewrite is very close. It comes from the real one, not the fakes.
good luck!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 20:41)
Foreign (Asian) equity markets..
If you want to watch Asia tonight...try this's great:

(Sun Aug 24 1997 20:41)
TED: Nikkei down 100 now, thats a 200 point drop in 25 minutes.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 20:43)
The past 25 days has been interesting. These are the days that will test the finacial souls of men. Last weeks Wally Coaster Ride for the equities, gave gold alot of bad press for not jumping off the charts. But if you noticed the yellow metal did'nt just run and hide. Fact is the Dec Comex Gold found a new minor resistance at 324, buliding from a now major resitance at 320 in the last 10 days and has now completed a classic head and shoulders bottom on the 25 day plot. This weeks action will most likley signal a break out. I would not short our little yellow freind next weel past the 326 level and if the financials even breath $US currency trouble, Gold will check in at 330, only to say HASTA LA WAGO!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 20:47)
Re-Nikkei...I noticed that too!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 20:48)
ww: I have real sympathy for someone who is supposedly educated, but insists on wasting his time trying to differentiate between Bill Klinton and Neutered Gringrich. Gingrich said on CSPAN last week that he and Klinton "agreed on 99% of the issues." With our civilization crumbling about you, I'd think you could find something more important to do with your time than to look for that elusive 1% which divides the 2 big government parties.

I might suggest that you learn how to trade the markets, but, that would never do. Market knowledge leads to money making, which leads to inequality, which is a mortal sin under the liberal creed. Gone from here.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 21:07)
Ted: Thanks, Bart fixed it.

Bart: I have experienced no inconvenience with the changes. I have not however, seen any change in download time. RJ has a good idea. Archive the day to a compressed file and allow downloads. I am an addict so I really don't care how I get my "fix" of Kitco. : )

(Sun Aug 24 1997 21:10)
re: another@20:40
Another, an iteresting post on 20:40; where's this person from ( country ) .
He's saying CBs will have a melt down in filling contracts, ok, but what of gold stocks, they have the properties from which the gold comes, forward sold or otherwise, that leads me to think once the smoke clears good gold shares must fare well.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 21:13)
Oldman ( 20:48 ) Good points....but will they register???...Dec. Gold dowmn 1.70 and Silver down 5.7 cents....Speed: this is addictive...ain't it!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 21:15)
Bart's upgrade looks OK to me ( I guess ) . I'm betting he went to this format as his hit rate probably was getting astronomical. If I hit his site at ( say ) noon, cruise out on a link, and cruise back in -- many times the whole download had to rebuild itself. I also noticed that at night it would take upwards to 20 minutes for a whole Kitco "page" to download.

The "next 25" at the end is a little irritating, but I noticed my downloads are much quicker than before. I too am a fan of downloading a few days conversations and leisurely reading them off line. Looks like I can still do this with his "pick a date" options.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 21:19)
6pak ( 17:39 ) : Profound stuff! And yet too wearisome to comment on further. .......... C'mon WW, let's hear your counter. Another Kennedy in the W House, perhaps? Ye Gods! ........ 'N if they're all under indictment, perhaps a Gephart?

(Sun Aug 24 1997 21:22)
THOR: Ur 18:40 Thks for Book reference, sounds good and will get.
STRAD MASTER: Ur 04:01 late nite musings has much truth and WW and Who Cares will one day find it also as they are smart enough - just takes time.
6PAK: Ur 02:08 Good definitions. Why not go back to what the founding fathers were trying to accomplish. I think they were closer to being Libertarians than anything the two so called major parties now put forward.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 21:22)
I take it back......
I take part of my last message back! Even when I go into the archives ( say from 21-23 Aug ) , I only get 25 messages at a time. I can't do much cruising off line.

I'm not a cheapie, I just don't like tieing my phone line up for the length of time I could be reading this stuff off line.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 21:23)
@Nowhere but here
Lan Man: Interesting article from Australia. I understand that most everybody in Austarlia ( except the leadership ) would be opposed to the huge Gold sale that they managed to pull off. This is just another example of our beloved politicians and beaurocrats in action, always following their own agenda, not that of the people they represent.
In Canada we have a mass murderer/psychopath Clifford Olson who managed to pull off a court hearing that cost hundreds of thousands $, to get early parole. 99% of the people here opposed this, yet the politicians and lawyers let it happen.
Over 70% of people want capital punishment reinstated in Canada, yet the politicians will not hold a free vote or hold a referendum.
Basically a few people in the inside make all the decisions, and they answer to no-one.
The PM market is probably even more tightly controlled by these organizations. As others have said before, the more manipulation there is, the longer it will take Gold to break out, but when the break occurs it will be enormous.
I have a strange feeling that we are not far from that point, and to be more specific within 2 1/2 weeks. Hope im right .........

(Sun Aug 24 1997 21:25)
....and one more thing!
It looks like if I cruise out of the discussion page, I can't get back in where I left off! Arrrrrgggghhhh! I was reading posts from Sunday at 1600-ish when I posted my last message. Now I have to start over from Sunday at 0000 hours! That means I have to scroll to the end and his "next 25" a few times so I can get back to the 1600 posts from where I left off!!

Bart!! What's the scoop here ol' buddy??

(Sun Aug 24 1997 21:30)
Scotty, grab history from "comunicator" ( if you've netscape ) , and find that previous page FAST!!!!!!!!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 21:34)
Welcome back to the machine of thought:-Gold breakout-354.5898 .Xau breakout-105.6165.The Walls of perpetual game.P.S. Yes I had a great holiday and more to come.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 21:37)
I know this isn't the gold shares discussion group,but I value this groups opinions more. Here is a chart of Australia's biggest gold miner ( current to Fri. 22nd Aug ) . What do you guys think?

(Sun Aug 24 1997 21:43)
Bart: If you would add TIME as a factor -- in addition to DATE -- then the problems like Scotty is having, and the problems I'm having would be eliminated. And you could still keep the 25 posting limit.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 21:47)
Bart: A couple of comments. Firstly I agree with RJ on downloading the whole day in a zip file. This 25 business is nickel and dimeing everyone to death. Another way to handle this is to download the whole day ( like before ) and then download just the new updates after that. This would be nirvana for me personally...

I have noticed that on the medium text there are a lot of 4 -15 words remaining links. Maybe you could increase your threshold as most posts are relatively brief...

It goes without saying that I am eternally grateful for this forum. Thank you.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 21:47)
Bart: An additional thought: If you would add TIME as a selection factor, I image it would mean a lot fewer hits to your file-server -- which should help you out also.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 22:19)
@ the end
Dec. gold down 1.60 @ 328.10 and silver down 5.2 cents...Good night ALL!!

(Sun Aug 24 1997 22:21)
How our we supposed to check out a particular post on any given time and date? Say I want to scan yesterdays posts for silver. Can't do it with the 25 hit limit! Please let us have at least one post per day the old fashioned way.

After I have scanned the days activities then the 25 limit post makes better sense. Thank you!

If several of us will ask bart for the once a day big scan I believe he just might respond.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 22:32)
War ?( militants preparing attack ) @ Gold will rise ?
Sunday, August 24, 1997
U.S. embassy warns Americans in Saudi Arabia

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia ( AP ) -- Americans in Saudi Arabia are still under threat of attack, according to a U.S. Embassy advisory.
The embassy's statement did seem to support remarks last month by Gen. Anthony Zinni, head of U.S. Central Command in Tampa, Fla., who said that militants were preparing another attack on U.S. troops in the Gulf region.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 23:06)
Bart @ 25 post, scan
Bart for the money that I am paying, to access this outstanding site.

You provided a site, that is easy to use, no registering, no intrusion.
As your guest, I accept your hospitality, and your conditions.
* A Quebec thing, eh!*

The advertizements that are present, are only your Company trade mark.

How the hell, you can provide this service, without the USofA standards,
of bombarding everyone with excessive advertizing. I have no idea, how
you can finance the cost of the server, and staff, etc. etc.
*Kindness and Consideration, is a Weakness ? * ( CSIS maybe ! : ) : ) : ) )

Thank you, is difficult to deposit in a bank, Thank You, can not pay for
your time, and any, and all, other costs associated. But, Thank You. Bart
Take care.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 23:33)
@thanx Bart
BART re: 6pak's last comment. Ditto.

(Sun Aug 24 1997 23:46)
Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - VI (24 August 1997)
Financial Tsunami Looming in Land of the Setting Sun. Oracle provides ample evidence Japans Financial Scandals & Crisis will drive US stocks and dollar down, rates & GOLD UP:

(Sun Aug 24 1997 23:56)
Decade later @ Black monday crash
August 24, 1997
A decade later, the prelude to Black Monday is remembered

NEW YORK ( AP ) - Ten years ago this week Wall Street began the scariest financial adventure ever experienced by a generation of stock-market investors.

On Aug. 25, 1987, the Dow Jones average of 30 industrials, which had been climbing for five years, reached a new closing peak of 2,722.42. Over the next two months, it took a precipitous drop.

What came to be known as the Crash of 1987 is often recalled as a crisis concentrated in a single day - Monday, Oct. 19, when the Dow fell 508 points, or more than 22 per cent.

But that Black Monday was the culmination of an eight-week slide in which the average lost just less than 1,000 points, or about 36 per cent. More than half the Dow's gains from 1982 to 1987 were wiped out in 39 trading days.

Or, in the words of veteran strategist Barton Biggs at Morgan Stanley: "I am convinced this particular mania will end either in a serious correction, at best, or a cyclical bear market."