Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 00:01)
Kuston ( 21:06 ) : Thanks. In addition, you wrote: "I've been studing Ann Rand lately, I can't even find the words to express my thoughts." ..... If you are referring to "The Virtue of Selfishness" and writing in a positive tone, I agree with you. 100%.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 00:01)
Hi Cherokee!....The water temperature in the North Atlantic ocean is up to 70 degrees in my area....very strange.....think we're due for some unusual weather this winter......which will only add to the earth's VOLATILITY....maybe this is a "new era"....Earl: Good one!....didn't mean to bolster his "bluster" as did not realize the repetitive nature of his increasingly boring message....Will have to scroll back farther next time!.....Late here on the East coast and as usual I have nothin ta say except...."nite ALL"....or almost all.....

(Thu Aug 28 1997 00:03)
@the market
Panda -- Somehow, I'm surprised, and then I'm not, about your attempted sell order on your stocks. A market order at that! I'm surprised someone didn't offer a nickle on them! They would have got them too! That, or there is a rule somewhere not to take 'advantage' of someone. Your market makers you've got working for you must be looking after you! We know there is some volume happening in these 'instuments'. It must be a question of what they were willing to pay for them, VS. what your brokers would let them go for. Perhaps a beer purchase might be in order, as they may have done you a great service in not selling them at 'market'! I wouldn't mind hearing some more clarification on the whole non-transaction if you wouldn't mind sharing it with us. I'm sure many 'lurkers' here might learn something quite beneficial! Respectfully ....

(Thu Aug 28 1997 00:07)
Just a small note about 401k. Contrary to some

recent posts here, 401k does not save on social

security/medicare taxes. All wages, including

the portion that goes into 401k is subject to

these taxes ( up to the annual limit in case of
social security tax. )

(Thu Aug 28 1997 00:27)
Hello Panda:

Two years ago the same thing happened to me. I had 360 shares of East rand and placed an order to sell 360 shares at market. I checked the paper the next mourning and saw that the price was the same as it had been for every day the whole week.

I called my broker and asked him if he had a fill to report; he said "let me check". He reported back to me that there were no fills to report. I then asked him what my order was the prior day. He said that it was to sell 360shares of EPRM at market, to which I said, "well?"

What happened was that the market maker in that stock had better things to do that day than worry about my 360 shares.

I have also watched the SOES traders hit the offers of the Large wall street firms and these firms would refuse to honour their bids! That is a violation of SEC regs. The people in the markets are just like anywhere else and just as honest.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 00:36)
@The scene
George S. Cole and all others -- There is not anything broken yet on this potential run! Let me re-itterate, 'nothing'! Weakness, perhaps, but not the 'ghost'! Not until a fall back of near a couple bucks happens IMHO! I would suggest that if it were seen, a purchase might very well be contemplated even then! A fall back below there can be construed as 'bear', vs. bearish. I do concur that the mining stock indices are not as one would like them to be, and I too watch them. In that, I do not like the very short term scenario, but, it ain't quite 'broke' yet. Maybe tomorrow. Maybe tonight. But not quite yet! In all probability as cast at this time, stocks will attempt another run. A negative impact on gold in any large enough degree is not a given, IMHO. Anymore, I can only say that 'things' are looking quite positive for its outlook. Maybe not in totality, but a 'change' has happened! These are my current thoughts on that market. So until proven otherwise, this 'run' ain't yet broke! Just be aware of 'potentialities'; up or down!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 00:40)
..... Pillar of Rationality .....

I havent had time to read most of that Gbug stuff, but if they have you calling me rational, I gotta read em. Ill let you know..

(Thu Aug 28 1997 00:44)
Long Post. Warning. Abstract for those uncertain:
Crashes. Personal note. 1929 cf 1987. Jewish Calendar. Spiral Calendar. List of Crash dates, Julian Days and Moon phases. Zurich Axiom: the Historians Trap. Livermore, footnotes enough to drive you mad, even the creation of the world gets a mention.


The information presented herein, while not guaranteed by me, has been obtained from sources which have not in the past proved particularly reliable. ( *6 ) ( *7 )

Many of us can remember what we were doing during the 87 crash, or the Moon Walk or hearing of JFKs assassination, some here even remember the 29 Crash. ( Hi Grandma! )

For 18 months during the boom of the mid-eighties my office was bedlam. Phones, faxes and in those days even telex machines were hammering away all day every day.


It was quiet. ..........Strangely quiet........ Eerily quiet. The day of the 87 Crash, in the offices of the regulators.

Many people before the 87 crash had warned of the similarity of 87 to 29, I too had predicted that crash and have been wrong with such frequency since that I know now that I merely out-guessed the village idiot on that occasion. But why were 87 and 29 so similar? It was not just that they were both in October, there were so many other parallels: Greed, public mania coupled with market ignorance, high leverage and low earnings. There were parallels but were there predictive data hidden in here?

A retired broker I spoke to many years ago told me of hearing of the frequent Autumn Crashes of the 19th Century and that he knew an old Jewish saying Buy on Chanunka, sell on Yom Kippur.

The Jewish Calendar, like the Babylonian , Chinese and Maori calendar, is a lunar calendar.

In the Jewish calendar the new moon is the first day of the moon cycle. Yom Kippur is the first full moon after the Jewish New Year. The new moon after the spring equinox ( Northern Hemisphere ) marks the first day of the first moon of the year. Selling on Yom Kippur would have preserved your capital in many, not all of the crashes below.

It was five years before I read of Carolans discovery in an early release of his book. ( *5 )

Christopher Carolan writing in The Spiral Calendar discovered that, when a lunar calendar rather than a solar calendar replaces the time axis on a chart that compares the DJIA in 1929 and 1987 then:

1 ) The Crash dates of 29 October 1929 and 19 October 1987 occur on the *same* lunar day ( 27th day of the 7th moon of the year ) .

2 ) The Summer High dates of 3 September 1929 and 25 August occur on the 1st and 2nd day of the 6th moon.

3 ) The Spring Low dates of 31 May 1929 and 20 May 1987 occur on the 22nd and 23rd day of the 2nd moon.

4 ) The Fall High dates of 11 October 1929 and 2 October 1987 occur on the 9th and 10th day of the 7th moon.

The dates, said Carolan, were statistically significant. The identical matching of the crash dates and the mere one day each side of the other Highs and Lows could not be mere chance, not when there are 365 days in a year.
Carolan then uses some interesting mathematics, calling on the Square roots of Fibonacci numbers and the Golden mean ( phi ) and other finagling factors to derive a Spiral Calendar of apparent predictive significance. According to his work the next Major low in DJIA on this spiral time sequence is 27 July 1998.

I have looked for other correlations on days given for other crashes and have found nothing that looks promising. Perhaps someone else at Kitco with more inclination than I can play with the numbers, do some data mining. If so, I hope any results are posted here on Kitco for the benefit of all.

This list is by no means complete or necessarily significant and I invite others to correct or add as necessary.

Dates of Crashes

1720 September 20
South Sea Bubble London
Peak at 1000 beginning of August, fell throughout month of August by Sept 2 was at 700 . ( *4 )
Moon: waning 19 days gibbous. ( full on 16 sept )
Julian Day: 2349540

1745 December 5
Black Friday
Run on Bank of England following Invasion of England from North by Bonnie Prince Charlie aka the Young Pretender he had reached Derby . Eventually dealt to at Culloden April 1746 ( *3 )
Moon: waning cresc 27 days old
Julian Day: 2357286

Crisis East India Co

1825 December
Country Banks S American Bonds, cotton

1827 December?

1837 March 17
Chicago Property collapse.

1857 August 24
The Panic of 1857
Railway Shares collapse ( *1 )
Moon: waxing cresc 6 days old.
Julian Day: 2399551

1866 May 11
Black Friday
Overend Gurney Collapse London ( *3 )
Moon: waning cresc 23 days old
Julian Day: 2402733

Credit Mobilier collapse

1869 September 24
Black Friday
Gould & Fisks Gold Corner. ( *1 )
Moon: waning 18 days gibbous. ( full on 21 sept )
Julian Day: 2403965

1873 September 19
Black Friday The Panic of 1873 Crash of Crashes .
Sept 8 New York Warehouse & Security Co collapsed. 13 Sept Kenyon Cox ( merchant bankers ) collapse. 17 September pandemonium. 18 Sept Jay Cook & Co ( Philadelphia finance house ) collapsed. ( *5 ) .
Moon: waning cresc 28 days old
Julian Day: 2405421

1884 May 10
Grants Panic.
The former General and Presidents sons broker house collapses. ( *5 )
Moon full 15 days old
Julian Day: 2409306

1890 November 14
Baring Crisis ( Argentine Loans )
Moon: waxing cres 1 day old
Julian Day: 2411686

Silver Panic

1901 May 9
The greatest panic that Wall St has ever known...
Following short squeeze in Northern Pacific that drove price to $1000 after previous days close of 160 before closing at 325 forcing mass stock liquidation. ( *5 )
Moon waning gibbous 20 days old
Julian Day 2415514

1907 October 24
NYSE Crash ( *2 )
Moon: waning gibbous 18 days old
Julian Day: 2417872

1929 October 29
Black Thursday
The Wall Street Crash
Moon: waning cresc 27 days old
Julian Day: 2425914

1973 November 29
London Collapse of London & Country Bank
Moon: waxing cresc 4 days old
Julian Day 2442016

1987 October 19
Black Monday
Moon: waning cresc 27 days old
Julian Day: 2447087

References & Footnotes ( *10 )

1* Crashes. Beckman. Grafton Books London 1990
2* Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. Edwin Lefevre. ( 1923 )
3* Manias Panics & Crashes. Charles P Kindelberger. John Wiley & Sons 3 Ed.1996.
4* Extraordinary Popular Delusions & The Madness of Crowds. Charles MacKay ( 1841 )
5* The Spiral Calendar Christopher Carolan New Classics Library Georgia 1992.
6* Where are the Customers Yachts? Fred Schwed Jr. ( 1940 ) My disclaimer is a copy the disclaimer from this book. ( *9 )
7* By which disclaimer I do not intend to imply that by the references to any specific footnote the authors are or are not to be relied upon, including, in kekulian completion, this specific footnote.
8*The same keys shifted on the keyboard, but also see ZA#3 , which are also the same keys shifted. I might be on to something here...... and ZA#8. Is this a pattern or what? ...........Out.
9* All right, outright plagiarism.
10* Which, in deference to Charles Fort, do not occur at the foot.

Other non-randomly selected Autumn dates of crisis:

1666 Sept 13
Great Fire of London

1923 September 1
The Great Kanto Earthquake levelled Tokyo
Moon: waxing gibbous 13 days old.
Julian Day 2423715

4004 B.C. October 22nd
The world was created at 6.00 pm said Archbishop Usher in 1650.

4004 B.C. October 23rd
OTOH Dr John Lightfoot, Vice-Chancellor of Cambridge University in 1859 ( with better data ) calculates that the world was *really* created today at 9.00 am.

The other day I posted some of the Zurich Axioms. This entire post should be read in the light of Minor Axiom V. ( Fortunately I had read ZA long before Spiral Calendar, I just love to devil, eh Byron? )

Minor Axiom V
Beware the Historians trap
The Historians trap is a particular kind of orderly illusion. It is based on the age-old but entirely unwarranted belief that history repeats itself. People who hold this belief - which is to say perhaps ninety-nine out of every hundred people on earth - believe as a corollary proposition that the orderly repetition of history allows for accurate forecasting in certain situations.... Dont fall into this trap. It is true that history repeats itself sometimes, but most often it doesnt, and in any case it never does so in a reliable enough way that you can prudently bet money on it.

The penultimate word comes from that most famous speculator suicide, Jesse Livermore:

It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. ( *2 p 68 )

aurator away........................

not to sit ( cos look what Jesse did to Jesse )


Ora et labora.......... ( *8 )

(Thu Aug 28 1997 00:46)
@the scene
RJ -- I could only handle just so much of it. Then I had to put it into 'scroll mode'!

Strad Master
(Thu Aug 28 1997 00:54)
In defense of freedom!
FRONT: Hear, hear, for your defense of LurkerGbug. He's entitled to express an opinion on this site just as others are. Time will tell who is right and who is wrong. Those who erroneously compare his ( please forgive me, LurkerGbug for speaking in the third person about you ) postings to Hepcat are just plain out to lunch. Hepcat was certifiably psychotic - conciliatory and reasoned one moment and maniacal and vitriolic the next. There is none of that in LurkerGbug. A bit too much chest-thumping perhaps, but we must all also remember that it takes a bit of time at this site to fully absorb the unique Kitco dynamic. RJ was also roundly attacked at first until he got into the swing of the gracious and laid-back posting style used more often than not here at Kitco. Let's give the new guy a chance like the gentlemen and ladies we are, and we can all learn from his postings. Maybe he'll change a few minds. Maybe his will be changed. In the meantime the markets will do what they will do.

Neil Collett
(Thu Aug 28 1997 00:58)
Asian stocks looking more than shaky - Phillipines down over 9%!!!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 01:11)
@The scene
Neil -- Amazing, isn't it! And this scenario could play out here also at any time! Makes for a big facetious 'marvelous', doesn't it? Got your 'foxhole' dug?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 02:04)

Your general point that investors are better off investing ( appropriately ) in the equities market does need saying. Long term economic data does, I'm sure, support that position. Now you say you have sold your position. Why? What indicators do you use to tell you that this 7% or so pull back is to be feared. Should there be a 10%-15% pull back what indicators will tell you that it is time to get back in? I'm serious about these questions. Like many on this site that are interested in metal related investments, I'm also active in other areas, particularly the great growth stories. Your point of view is of value; some discussion of your reasoning would be appreciated.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 02:05)
In the not-so-distant future, as the devaluating economies in Asia continue to do so, Japan will find itself losing foreign markets due to a relatively high yen in those countries. In fact, they are already discussing it. Japan will then have to decide what to do. One solution is to do nothing and keep the yen up to current levels with the dollar ~118 yen/$. This would probably hurt their precarious economy enough to soon choose option 2.

That is to devaluate the yen, and that must be done against the dollar, say just 10%. Since the other devaluations were in the range of 20-30%, this would be a compromise and the dollar would go to about 129 yen/$. The price of gold in dollars would surely fall some more and might reach 300. At this point, Japanese exports to the US would increase and the US trade deficit would start to balloon. US trade officials would see what was happening and bitch like mad at Japan. Japan might sell US debt to pay for its support of the devaluators. This would tend to limit the climbing value of the dollar slightly.

Somewhere in this scenario, the devaluators will find that their international debts have increased about 20-30% as measured in their domestic currency, along with their interest payments on these debts. This would cause them to sell foreign reserves, probably dollars/ US debt. This would partially cause the dollar to drop slightly, but against what?

As the dollar becomes the only currency not devaluated, gold in all other currencies would have increased in price. In fact, if this scenario is done rapidly, US long term bond rates would temporarily drop and the rise in the dollar should drive gold down in dollars for perhaps the final down spike. Long term US interest rates would go down ~ 6.1% and bonds would zoom. The market would make its last hurrah, or orgasm, depending upon how you look at it.

The increasingly bad trade deficit would eventually cause a reversal in rates and a down turn in the stock market. At this point, I think that US politicians would demand a devaluation of the dollar ( loose money ) to save our exporters and domestic economy ( the Dow would have already turned down ) and inflation ( money expansion ) would be off and running, taking gold up with it. Gold shorts would reverse position and foreign investors would start to take money out of the US market when the dollar turned south and the Dow slide would accelerate beyond most imaginations.

In the last two months, I have seen writers/analysts with several variations of this theme, and don't think it is too far out. The main questions are the timing, duration between events, and entensity of each.... and of course... whether or not it will happen at all.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 02:08)
@The Amazing Donald!
Thanks a googol. You are amazing, you are not the retired Shell Answer Man are you?: ) If you were within arms reach I would give you a big hug ( roeBEAR Hug! ) , at least until I try and find these suckers! I'll let you know how I make out, give me a few weeks. One has posted here tonight ( very wisely ) that history does not repeat itself in tradable ways, yet I think you and I know that the PRINCIPLES remain the same!; ) )
Thank You!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 02:09)
Enjoyed your early morning post ( 08-27-97 ) about which coins to buy. You stated that the Royal Mint would guarantee to buy it back at the $310 face value.

Excuse me, but aren't I missing something? Do you think the Royal Mint would buy back your 1 oz silver Maple Leaf for the $5 face value?? Clue me in, man, or is this another government lie that everyone accepts without question?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 02:10)
along the northwest passage
Bart, thanks for going back to the OLD format. I can't stay online indefinetly like some of these rich guys! It is quicker to download all at once then read. Thanks.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 02:21)
..... Stuff .....
Jeeeeeesh This Lurking Goldbug sure has a lot of money, dont he? Whoever compared this guy to me, please retract. He does, however make some good points. Did I miss something? Could well be, Ive been way busy the last few weeks, but why does this guy elicit, invitations to "bite me"? I sense much more hostility directed towards him than his words warrant. He might be a bit redundant, but I have read nothing from Gbug that I would term offensive. Like I said, I may have missed something, if so, someone please clue me in. As for now, I find the pages a marginally better read since Gbug started. I wonder if he will continue to "crow" about the stock market. Let's be clear @ 18:45 said it better than I, and I too look for something with a bit more substance. Meanwhile, I hope he grows a sense of humor. As for the 8% tithe, not so clever to have avoided that bait..I imagine our little Gbug working the hook from his cheek, nice cast Earl. I do wonder where this "I'm just a poor hick country boy" got his intimate knowlegde of sheep baaaaaable, but I wont speculate on that further. Perhaps it explains his willingness to pay $150 - $275 over spot to buy his "Saints". Its just gold, son, dont get carried away.

Your 19:11 A Gem!!!! Alms box..He he he he he etc.

Mike Sheller
You did call the PL pullback a couple weeks ago, good show, chap!

EB has the Zep T shirt, Im more the silk shirt and shorts type.

Hey, Armani makes dress shorts - only in California.

You have challenged a Newporter!! Choose your dart. Oh, you already said that. Im getting tired..Goodnight.

Away. Etc.

I am me and I am here

charles t
(Thu Aug 28 1997 02:23)
Larry, all I can say about your 2:05 post is

Holy Cow,

this is my first post in a long time.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 02:31)
..... SML + Mounty .....
5.00 Canadian is worth about $3.80 US. Yes the Mint will buy em back. I know the people at RCM, they make a lot of money on these shiny little disks. Think about it, would you turn down $3.80 silver? As for the Mounty, it should be worth about $235 US, maybe not such a good buy on gold ( dig ) . I may have spoken a bit too soon, This is a brand new concept for the Mint and I will know more in a couple weeks.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 04:26)
STRAD MASTER: Your Aug 28 00:54. ( In defense of freedom ) I suspect I believe in freedom of expression as much as you do and I may be "out to lunch" but when you say "a bit of chest pumping,perhaps" this has to be a bit of an understatement. I think you are riding the wrong horse on this one. Agree with Earl, and let us hope we are wrong Earl, and Strad is right and we end up with another RJ as Strad thinks we might ;- )

(Thu Aug 28 1997 04:30)
Kitco Bash

Still thinking about the "BASH". I believe this will happen within six months. WW--I have not forgotten our friendly wager. The loser sends $400 to Bart's favorite charity, right? Cherokee--If at the time of said bash, gold is at $600, then I buy the first round. If $800, then you're buying!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 04:40)
LARRYN: Your 02:05 makes a lot of sense in my book. It is also possible things will pop much faster than you are seeing and the problems will be much greater. Then what? With the Philipines market off over 9% tonight this is getting serious fast.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 04:48)
Far East markets in big trouble, Malaysia now off over 8%, Hong Kong and Indonesia off over 4%, Philippines now off 9.29% to be exact. Interesting day tomorrow in the West?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 04:54)
UP all night

Goldbug23-- I could not agree more. Yes, South East Asia is crumbling before our eyes. How much longer before Japan gets hit? Not long IMO.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 05:19)
Kitco Bash

Still thinking about the "BASH". I believe this will happen within six months. WW--I have not forgotten our friendly wager. The loser sends $400 to Bart's favorite charity, right? Cherokee--If at the time of said bash, gold is at $600, then I buy the first round. If $800, then you're buying!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 05:39)

How the heck did my 04:30 post also appear at 05:19? I didn't repost it. Maybe some Y2K bugs jumping the gun, eh?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 05:48)
Asian collapse overnight. Scroll down to see all.

George Cole
(Thu Aug 28 1997 05:53)
market action
European stock markets modestly higher. Asia plunges. Dollar higher. December gold up 50 cents. Joberg gold index flat. Should be an interesting day.

Panda: Something fishy about your broker not executing market orders in listed securities. This has never happened to me. My market orders always have been quickly executed. Sometimes at a discount to the latest bid, but executed nonetheless.

Eldorado: Now agree that it is too early to say whether the upmove in gold shares will continue or not. With so many potential surprised out there, anything can happen. And fast.

Street Beat
(Thu Aug 28 1997 06:53)
August 28, 1997 - The street braced for a hurricane in the gold market today after word leaked that the Kitco gold discussion group had gone a full hour without a single post early this morning. Experienced traders immediately recognized this as the rare, once-per-decade or less "calm before the storm" that invariably signaled intense activity in the bullion market with fluctuations up to 10% or more, usually to the upside.

Reports indicated the famous "lull" began at approximately 5:53 AM after a routnie post by noted analyst George Cole.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 07:04)
Bull's Eye

Street Beat--In Re to 06:53 post--Your timing is awesome. Sixty minutes, on the nose, after GSC's post.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 07:21)
STREET BEAT: The problem is Asia, not Kitco. The news is so bad we are all stunned, even though we have been expecting it for months. I am sure that there is a big bank or two somewhere that is wiped out. It will take a bit for all the news to get out. I was watching Dalton Tanonaka from Hong Kong squirm as he was asked a question by CNBC people in the states. They have to be careful what they report now that China is the new master. We have to be suspect of all the news from that region. Reporters have had warnings from governments in Thailand and Malaysia for sure, and probably others, to get stories cleared before they are aired.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 07:22)
Dec.Gold down .80 @ 328 but more surprising is that Hong Kong gold was basically unchanged ( down a dime ) in the face of huge losses in the S.E.Asian equity markets...Hang Seng down 4.23%; Indonesia down 4.52%; Malaysia down 4.22%; Singapore down 3.62%; and the grand daddy of them all,the Phillipines down NINE %....What does it take to move gold in Asia????....Interesting that the Nikkei had the strength to withstand the downdraft of other Asian equity markets to end up virtually unchanged @ up 9....

(Thu Aug 28 1997 07:28)
TED: I am really having a problem trying to figure out why there is not a reaction by gold in this mess. Certainly there is a reaction in local currencies but the dollar just ignores it. Almost like they got Nixon out of the grave to open the window again. The dollar is as good as gold now?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 07:30)
Turn Around
In the last Half Hour it seem everything turn around for Gold.
Globex shot up to -575 S&P500, and -700 NSDQ100. Plus Spot Gold moved sharp up. Today could be a very interesting and possible agreat day for Gold. It all depends on the GDP report and how far it is revised upward ( 8:30 AM ) .

(Thu Aug 28 1997 07:41)
INGER MARKET FORECAST - Crash Alert 27 august 1997
"Hail Mary Pass" rebound from first low expected in vicinity of Dow 7665 ... after which we would proceed to further downside targets of Dow 7200, with possibilities of 5700-6400:

(Thu Aug 28 1997 07:42)
Mornin Donald....fog tryin to burn off here...Has currency trading to some degree supplanted gold in times of chaos+turmoil???? Ten years ago Asian gold would have SOARED with that kind of equity bloodbath.....Probabaly are some nervous equity investors in Japan right now,wondering if they are next....

(Thu Aug 28 1997 07:51)
Hi Tort! Your missive just arrived and ain't unions great???...Was just wondering where you were and where OUR damn joke of the day was???...I've been busy playing host but am back to business as usual now....I'll go out on a limb and say gold will go up today....

(Thu Aug 28 1997 07:51)
TED: How would you feel if all your better customers went down the drain last night? And to top it off, your inventories are already 7.1% as per the story below.

April-June inventory index rises 7.1%;
production index flat: MITI
The Ministry of International Trade and Industry announced Wednesday
the inventory index for the April-June period stood at 110.6
( 1990=100 ) , up 7.1% from the preceding quarter, the first rise in five
quarters. The production index for the quarter was flat, while the
shipment index declined 1.6%, MITI added.

Manufacturers boosted inventory to replenish stocks after the buying
binge ahead of the consumption tax hike faded, ministry officials
explained. They also attributed the rise partly to lower personal

Higher inventories were seen in almost all industrial sectors, rising 44%
for automobiles, for example. Air conditioners were up 29.7%,
cosmetics 20%.

The production index rose for three consecutive quarters through
January-March. But the ministry said this index is still 6.7% above the
same period a year earlier, and remains on a gradual increase.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 07:54)
I'd be nervous!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 07:56)
Joke of the morng
Ted, I have been taking daughters to college and I see that my investment money has evaporated. Hopefully I will make a better return on this than I have my other investments this year. I'm suffering from prolonged flu so I will make this short and post the joke of the day.

Two lovers interested in spiritualism and reincarnation vowed
that if either died, the other one remaining would try to contact
the partner in the other world exactly 30 days after their dying.
As luck would have it, a few weeks later the young man died
in a car wreck. True to her word, his sweetheart tried to
contact him in the spirit world exactly 30 days later.

At the seance, she called out, "John, dear John; this is Martha.
Do you hear me?"

A ghostly voice answered her, "Yes Martha, this is John; I can
hear you."

Martha tearfully asked, "Oh John, what is it like where you are?"

"It's beautiful. There are azure skies, a soft breeze, sunshine
most of the time."

"Well what do you do all day," asked Martha.

"Well Martha, we get up before sunrise, eat some good
breakfast, and there's nothing but sex until noon. After lunch,
we nap until two and then have more sex until about five. After
dinner, we go at it again until we fall asleep about 11pm."

Martha was somewhat taken aback. "Is that what heaven
really is like?"

"Heaven? I'm not in heaven Martha."

"Well then where are you?"

"I'm a jack rabbit in Arizona."

(Thu Aug 28 1997 08:01)
GOOD ONE!...hope you feel better.....soon!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 08:05)
Inger Market Forecast
Vronsky- Thanks for your post, ( Crash Alert 27 August ) .
I read it last night and it lifted me up when I needed it. Sometimes it seems nothing will break Gold upward or I don't understand why it already hasn't happen. But the Truth has to come out and I hope soon.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 08:08)
Earl&Kuston, I suppose you and others here know that our Fed Chairman was an Ayn Rand confidant and part of her "inner circle" back in the 60's. What does this mean for how much pain he will allow?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 08:26)
Its a European Problem.

US Troops being pelted with rocks and harassed in Bosnia.
Should we really be there?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 08:26)
900 shares AEM
panda: Internet Trader shows that at 9:59 am on 8/27/97 there were TWO trades of 900 shares at 8 7/8 for AEM. This would appear to be a buy and a sell ( or a trade and a cancel ) of your 900 shares. It was the first AEM trade of the day. The next AEM trade was for 1600 shares at 10:05 am. This looks suspiciously like your trade executed at 9:59 and got cancelled immediately upon execution. Find out why. If you have Internet Trader ( free, but you have to download the software from Papyrus ) , look it up right away before the market opens and overlays yesterday's trades. Your broker should have access to this evidence somewhere, and if he doesn't, the NYSE should. Someone made a mistake.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 08:27)
Show Time
It looks like everybody waiting for 8:30 AM.
Forex- The U.S. dollar Loosing strength.
Globex- S&P500 -410, NSDQ100 -1095.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 08:31)
COLES MARKET INSIGHTS by George S. Cole, CFA & Economist
Interestingly, the other precious metals -- silver, platinum, and palladium -- have all breached their 100 day moving averages. And these "whites" frequently lead the yellow:

(Thu Aug 28 1997 08:31)
Comex gold down .10: silver down .5 cent: PL up 1.80: and PA @ unch....
Pretty!...GDP revision is expected to be 3.3% and it is 3.6%....Long bond up 2 ticks...

(Thu Aug 28 1997 08:38)
Can't handle any more of this excitement...time to bake some bread....S+P futures down 3.50 ....BBL dudes....that was quick ( S+P futures down 4.30 )

(Thu Aug 28 1997 08:42)
World stock markets
...all down except Japan ( ? ) & Greece
what's happening?

Mike Sheller
(Thu Aug 28 1997 08:50)
Ayn Rand spinning in her grave
CARL: You referring to Dr. Robert Stadler?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 08:56)
Panda or Mooney
or someone else.
Who was it who posted the info for purchasing gold at reasonable rates/prices
and the pitfalls to watch out for. Could you please post the time and date of posting please.
Or email to

Check Out These Drops

Value Move % Move
Hong Kong
HSI HANG SENG STOCK INDEX 14876.10 -657.85 -4.24
HKAOI HKSE ALL ORDINARIES INDX 7947.05 -284.16 -3.45

STI SING: STRAITS TIMES INDU 1846.62 -69.34 -3.62
SESALL SING: SES ALL INDEX 460.16 -17.55 -3.67
DBS50 SING: DBS 50 INDEX 467.64 -18.11 -3.73

KLCI KUALA LUMPUR INDEX 812.18 -35.74 -4.22
KL2ND KUALA LUMPUR 2ND BOARD 385.69 -48.62 -11.20

SET THAI STOCK EXCHG OF THAI 511.76 -11.98 -2.29
SET50 HAI SET 50 INDEX 36.84 -1.11 -2.93
TWSE TAIWAN: WEIGHTED INDEX 9827.49 -223.18 -2.22

SHASHR CHINA SE SHANG A SHR 1265.39 +18.21 +1.46
SHBSHR CHINA SE SHANG B SHR 86.62 -3.74 -4.13
SZASHR CHINA SE SHENZ A 394.52 -.37 -.09
SZBSHR CHINA SE SHENZ B 146.59 -2.32 -1.56
BSI INDIA STK XCHG SENSITIVE 3963.15 -134.41 -3.28
Sri Lanka

All of us regular viewers of Kitco will have the fortune of watching the world transform
over the next few months in a fashion that has only been seen twice this century. WOW!
In the good old days one woke up and read about it in the Saturday paper.


And can discuss it as it's happening
What an exciting world we live in !!!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 09:03)
more on AEM
PANDA: Some one is correcting the record on yesterday's AEM trades. I just went back to Internet Trader to see your trades again, and write them down before they dissappear, and in the time since my last post, the trading records for yesterday have been updated! Now the record shows the first AEM trade of the day yesterday was for 1100 shares at 8 7/8 at 9:53 and again at 9:54 ( perhaps another trade and cancel, or perhaps this is how they show a sale to the specialist, I don't know ) , followed by the two trades of 900 shares at 8 7/8 at 9:59, and then the 1600 shares at 8 7/8 at 10:05. There were over a dozen trades that followed, including a 400 share block that was bought and sold 4 times in a row around noon. Seeing the record corrected on the day following the trades seems to imply other errors have been reported for yesterday's AEM open. I would follow through immediately if this were my trade. If your broker cannot be bothered to trace down the problem, I'd suggest changing brokers. I have had years of excellent results, excellent executions, and completely satisfactory prompt problem resolution with Wachovia Investments, 1-800-922-9008. My experience with several large nationally prominent firms before that was abysmal and expensive.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 09:13)
@newsletter hunt
Interesting newsletter @

(Thu Aug 28 1997 09:13)
Confucius say: When men of intellect allow selves to be distracted from immediate purpose by verbal attack of others they risk loss of focus and only bring sorrow to themselves and to their dojo.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 09:19)
@The Fifty Yard Line

Nick--My sentiments as well. This will not be the first time that a bubble has burst; but it will be the first time that the "POP" will be watched and recorded live, in real time. What better place to watch from, than right here.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 09:20)
@Nick--buying gold
Nick--if you are not concerned about someone knowing your name and address you can buy gold from the Perth Mint. Call 08 9421 7420 and ask for Gordon. Get him to fax you their price list. They sell kangaroo nuggets--all .9999 as well as gold bars, platinum koalas, silver coins etc. The one ounce gold nuggets are marked up about 6% over spot. They buy back at spot, so it will cost you 6% on the turnaround. When you sell them back in a few years at a much higher price the 6% will be inconsequential. If you are concerned about privacy, then go to a big city coin shop and buy them for cash. If you want to lock in a price with the Mint--Gordon will guarantee you the quoted daily price. It is as good as a contract--so don't reneg if you ever want to deal with them again.

George Cole
(Thu Aug 28 1997 09:22)
asian turmoil and gold prices
Gold down 40 cents despite severe drops in asian "tiger' stock markets. Remember folks that a bear market in U.S. financial assets will be required to touch off a major bull move in the yellow. To the extent that overseas problems strengthen the demand for U.S. financial assets, the net impact is a negative for gold.

To date the problems in Asia have made gold considerably more expensive for the locals as their currencies plunge versus the greenback. When U.S. markets start experiencing Asia-style turbulence, gold will move and move big. But until then the yellow will continue to disappoint.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 09:29)
Asian woes signal currency realignment
Interesting article, suggesting 'currency realignment is somehow tied to EMU and the imapct to the US markets
Murenbeeld said it is likely that Asian central banks will diversify their reserve holdings to include
the euro when the currency goes into circulation. This prospect has implications for North
American markets because Asian central banks have been big buyers of US$s in the form of U.S.
government bonds.
Americans have been net sellers of their own bonds for more than two years and a realignment of
Asian bond portfolios likely would mean that bond yields would have to rise in North America in
order to attract more buyers to those markets.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 09:36)
George Cole
George - IYHO -when will the US dollar go the way of the Asian currencies - or is this asking too much of you?!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 09:37)
Eldorado @00:03
fjgkdlsaj ( !! )
George Cole @05:53
auroelf @ 08:26 and 09:03

I'm in the middle of ripping my main PC apart for upgrades. Thank for the inputs. What a trading day to be doing this!!!!!
BBL I hope!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 09:39)

I am very sorry, Dave, about the Millennium Bug. Now, how about a nice game of Chess.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 09:58)
This morning Peter Eliades said if the Dow is not down to 6800-6900 between Sept 5-10 the market could rally back to the highs.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 09:59)
@Cool Idea

Panda-- Have you checked into those boxes you put on your TV and access the Internet? Those things cost about the same as a good quality VCR. About $300. Am using one now. I am in my recliner, with my keyboard on a big pillow, reading and posting at Kitco. My big screen TV is displaying the proceedings. Worth looking into!

George Cole
(Thu Aug 28 1997 10:01)
the dollar
Duncan: As Randall Forsyth has pointed out in Barron's, the greenback, the U.S. stock market, and the U.S. bond market all march to the same drummer in this "new era. The huge torrent of foreign capital flowing into our stock market has helped push up the greenback. This, in turn, has given overseas investors a still higher return on their investments.

But once our stock market turns south, this process will reverse. As foreigners begin to worry about the double wammy of equity and currency losses, the capital inflow into our stock market will reverse, putting downward pressure on the dollar. This process should commence by year-end.

The geenback also has been boosted these last few years by massive purchases of treasury securities by foreign central banks seeking to jump start sluggish economies via currency depreciation. When they conclude this process has gone far enough with further currency depreciation entailing unacceptable inflation risks, they will reverse course. We probably are very close to that point now in many cases.

A viable EMU also will put downward pressure on the dollar to the extent that it can serve as an international reserve currency. Asian CBs already are talking about substituting the EMU for dollars to a certain extent.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 10:02)
This is probably the reason gold is weak nowadays:
RTw 08/24 0614 Indian report hurts demand for Dubai gold in week

Copyright, 1997 Reuters Ltd. All rights reserved. The following news report may
not be republished or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the prior
written consent of Reuters Ltd.

By Sami Aboudi
DUBAI, Aug 24 ( Reuter ) - A report of an imminent relaxation of Indian
gold imports hit Dubai's gold trade in the week to Sunday, with an
expected increase in demand from the subcontinent failing to materialise.
"People failed to place the orders we had expected because of rumours
that the Indian government was going to introduce an OGL ( open general
licence ) policy," said a trader for one of the main gold exporters to
He said an Indian newspaper report earlier in the week that the
government was about to ease its gold import policy unnerved Indian
importers. "People were afraid," he said.
" is almost clear now because they did not allow any new
imports yet and we are expecting a rise in import demand from the end of
August onwards," he said.
Another trader confirmed the market was "sluggish" in the week, but
attributed that to independence celebrations in India and Pakistan.
"Prevailing gold prices had been attractive enough. But because of
the holidays, it ( the market ) had been sluggish," the trader said.
"Demand will pick up by the end of the third quarter," he said.
Traders in India earlier this month said they expect the government
to relax gold imports as part of economic reforms, but they said this
could take some time.
Earlier this year, India doubled the amount of gold it allows its
expatriates to bring home every six months.
Dubai is the main source of gold imported to India. Around three
quarters of Dubai's gold imports are re-exported to India, the world's
second most populous country after China.
India's gold imports usually rise after the country's main festival
and wedding season which begins in September following the annual monsoon
rains, when farmers harvest crops.
Weaker gold prices on the international market have bolstered demand
for the precious metal, particularly from Dubai traders wanting to take
advantage of low prices ahead of the usually busy festival season.
Dubai's benchmark TT bar -- 3.746 ounces of 24 carat gold -- was quoted on
International spot gold was last quoted on Saturday at $325.75/326.25
an ounce versus $326.50/327.25 a week earlier.
( $1-3.67 dirhams )

(Thu Aug 28 1997 10:02)
Front: Well said.

LurkingGbug: Thanks for your contrarian-contrarian inputs. I empathize with a lot of what you have said. I'm a little guilty of this myself, but it's better not to "flame" folks by name... ( just add a : ) or ; ) to the end of an attack as a sort of disclaimer, ; ) ! ) . Be happy and be humble .... Lighten up : )

Glenn ( re: your 18:35 ) : I really appreciate your view from the pits. They are helpful and insightful. I'm sure you were, but I REALLY hope you were joking about "all we need now is a good war in the middle east."
. .

That area of the world is one of the wildcards I have spoken of in some of my previous posts here. Although highly unlikely at this point, it would not be a totally unrealistic scenario for escalating violence to lead to higher levels of conflict between the two fanatical religious leaders/factions of the region in the months ahead. This could lead to more ugly scenarios between bigger players. Add to that Biblical inferences/predictions and that part of the world is REALLY scary.

"Guns and weapons are the commodities of Armageddon... politicians and religeous zealots are the brokers... lust and greed are the catalysts"

Wishing, hoping, or predicting a war/conflict is analogous to wishing, hoping, or predicting a financial adjustment/crisis - they WILL happen. The question is when, and what are the warning signs.

We should all be careful what we "wish" for.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 10:05)
Auric ( 9:59 ) Do you have a bowl of popcorn too....Comex: gold up .80 and silver up 13 cents.....Panda:Do you want to borrow my sledge hammer???
Jimmy Rogers on Squawk box ( CNBC ) tomorrow to talk about El Nino....

(Thu Aug 28 1997 10:13)
SILVER PRICE SOARING (UP Almost 18 cents) -- Silver, the Fundamentals!
The fundamentals ARE VERY convincing for silver and the producers of the white metal. Here is an excerpt from Pan American Silver's 1996 annual report:

(Thu Aug 28 1997 10:15)
IS 1929 BEING REPLAYED THIS YEAR? - by Guest Guru Ure
There is an uncanny similarity between the DOW from January 1920 to April 1930 AND TODAYS DOW track record. Avoid reading this study at your own peril - GUEST GURU URE:

(Thu Aug 28 1997 10:29)

Ted--Yes! I have the best popcorn ever--Orville Redenbacher. His popcorn really does taste better! I met the man shortly before his death. I believe he is a graduate of Purdue University.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 10:31)
@The scene
Kind of thought it all wasn't quite dead yet. We make it through this 330 Dec area, and it'll be up to 335 area in about 10 micro-seconds!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 10:31)
All Far-Eastern markets tanking - UNDOUBTEDLY Japan to follow, which will drive US stocks & dollar down, interest rates & GOLD UP:

(Thu Aug 28 1997 10:32)
TED -- I got carried away with upgrading my computer.... IT's now almost all new except for the case and mother board. Bigger power supply, new 120 Meg high density floppy drive, dual PCMCIA port ( which is giving me all the greif, because this is how I receive my real time data! ) , and a new dual Pentium II mother board on the way... No sledge hammer needed, I have a .44 Mag that would do the job just fine! I jumped out of Getchell Gold ( GGO ) yesterday, only to jump back in today! Go figure! Still have ALL of my AEM. NGC at $43 1/2 and NEM at $42 5/8 at 10:31, XAU and HUI finally moving in the right direction. Dow? Oh, well....

(Thu Aug 28 1997 10:35)
to RJ
RJ -

I appreciate your coin comments of yesterday. You said that
ML's and KR's are IRS reportable ( required by fed law ) , but
AE's and VP's are not. What makes this so? or Why is this
so? Also, what about silver coins? Are sellers ( e.g. coin
shops ) also required to report to the IRS those individuals
who buy Silver Eagles ( SE ) , for example? Thanks in advance
for your response.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 10:37)
TED -- This is a quick read,
If the techs fall... so goes the market! This is not good news for equities.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 10:40)
Another myth shattered? Rallying bond market with declining stock market, as Homer Simpson would say, DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 10:41)
ROEBEAR: That book "A History of Money from the Ancient Times to the Present Day" The Author is Glyn Davies. I couldn't remember last night. Cardiff is the publisher. It was published in 1994.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 10:44)
PANDA: Remember, the Fed's first priority would be bonds. If we keep them busy enough they won't have time to rescue stocks.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 10:58)
@my garden
El Nino: Thank you very much for our hot+dry summer as my garden is goin WILD...YES!...Auric ( 10:29 ) Orville's popcorn is my favorite too and wouldn't have moved here if it wasn't know!
Panda ( 10:32 ) Uh....ya lose me when we get away from "hammer talk"...looks like "dipsters" are tryin ta do their thing...Dow only down 82...Bread dough is risin...Ted's spaghetti sauce is brewin....I'm so hot Iez smokin today....hogs up 1.05....the world is great! and I'm outta here for the high seas and a little seakayaking.....Hi Cherokee!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 10:58)
Silver comments?
My would think a +.15 rise in silver was everyday...!! No big comments...just another short settling up?? Go SSC!!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 11:04)
TED -- If you have good weather up there today, by all means enjoy it. Weather down here is 65 to 70 degrees and light rain, on and off showers, very humid. Have fun!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 11:04)
ALL: It looks like LGB just wants to fight. If no one plays, he will settle down a bit. Otherwise he will get his 'attention'.

IMO Japan is stunned by the problems in its neighborhood, like a deer transfixed before headlights. They are a herd. When it gets bad enough they will run together. As yet they don't know what to do. Gold has not been 'in the faith' for them. A path less travelled. So its had to start. But once they do it will be a rush.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 11:12)
Australia's future looks bleak...

1 ) Japan buys about 27 per cent of Australia's exports and its headed for another recession
2 ) El Nino impact
3 ) High unemployment
4 ) Gold mining industry in disarray- lower exports, lower earnings, shutdowns, slowdown, restructuring, layoffs
5 ) Sold their gold
Would you have confidence in that government?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 11:22)

Over the last few weeks there has been a pretty good correlation between rebounds in the stock market and downward reversals in gold. Today, that has not been the case. Although the SPU's rallied 700 points off the lows gold remained higher. This is new and this is good.

One other small positive fundamental for silver. The price of copper has been going down fairly strongly over the last few weeks. This will inevitably lead to lower production should it continue. Lower production of copper also leads to lower production of silver because it is a byproduct of many copper mines. In addition, the higher cost copper mines are generally the ones which produce silver as a byproduct. The lowest cost copper mines are generally SXEW and they produce no silver at all.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 11:24)
World Gold Council - gold prices may soon be on the way up
But gold prices may soon be on the way up, according to
the World Gold Council.

The WGC's manager gold market analysis, Mr George
Milling-Stanley, said in Melbourne yesterday world
consumption of gold had easily exceeded annual mine
production for the past decade. The major US hedge
funds were "heavily short in gold". He predicted many
would soon have to begin unwinding these positions
which could lead to a sudden surge in demand.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 11:39)
Rim players may be on the edge -
Malaysia, for example, has a volume of stock margin debt in its financial system equal to 7 per cent of GDP. As
David Hale - the chief economist with the Zurich Group - notes, this is slightly higher than the US on the eve of the
1929 stockmarket crash.

He says: "If Malaysia were to experience a stockmarket meltdown comparable to Thailand's, it would have a
devastating impact on both the economy and the personal wealth of Dr Mahathir's leading corporate backers."

(Thu Aug 28 1997 11:44)
George Cole
George - thanks for your ( as usual ) lucid reply.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 11:56)
Syrians protest girls' arrest in Golan
Syria, Politics, 8/28/97

Syrian Arab citizens made a strong protest against the arrest of
the Syrian girl by Israeli forces in occupied Golan.

Meanwhile the Israeli Chairman of the Israeli settlement council
in Golan said that Israeli Infrastructures Minister Areil Sharon,
confirmed the expansion of settlements, and agreed on building
a new bridge in at Fabighat area linking the occupied Golan to
the 1948 occupied.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 12:00)
Now that the DJIA has dropped below 7700, it's having trouble moving back above that resistance. Today's close will be important. I expect it will close below 7700. The stock market crash is still on course with the patterns of 1929 and 1987.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 12:00)
Now that the DJIA has dropped below 7700, it's having trouble moving back above that resistance. Today's close will be important. I expect it will close below 7700. The stock market crash is still on course with the patterns of 1929 and 1987.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 12:07)
Hi Puetz! ....Not too late to buy some of those cheap stox...

CPA Lurker
(Thu Aug 28 1997 12:13)
Front: Here's some additional info on the tax rates & 401k issue

Maximum federal tax rate is 39.6% which goes into effect for income over $250,000

Social Security tax applies only to employee contributions - not the employer contributions

Strad Master
(Thu Aug 28 1997 12:17)
More on freedom of the post!
GOLDBUG 23: Re your 4:26. Perhaps you are right. Again only time will tell. However, from my following of the postings, it seemed to me that LurkerGbug only became shrill in response to being attacked. Now, if some here at Kitco feel the need to haze any new participant who holds contrarian views, then it behooves the hazee to respond in kind, doesn't it?. Personally, I don't mind seeing a bit of good natured HEAT directed at such contrarian ( for Kitco ) posters as it will undoubtedly serve to filter the pure metal from the dross. Earl's post to him was great. Nonetheless, there exists a fine line between agressively probing for weaknesses in the poster's ideas and angrily attempting to squelch any and all dissent. This is especially true when the new poster is not completely familiar with the unwritten conventions of posting here. My reaction was to those who suggest LurkerGbug leave the site if he doesn't like it here and to those who prematurely compared him to Hepcat. As it happens, I don't share LurkerGbugs views at all. Were I not a finanacial doom 'n gloomer I would never have found my way to Kitco in the first place. On the other hand, I am also big-time economic sage. In fact, I fall into the category of those LurkerGbug described as having incurred great losses while waiting for the end-of-the-world predictions to come true. ( Someone asked me for advice in a post the other day. I couldn't believe it! Just because I've hung around here a long time doesn't mean I know anything - if anything I've been the PERFECT contrary indicator all along! ) However, I am operating in TODAY'S time frame and today it looks like we might be getting closer to CSC being right. ( Perhaps, too, we haven't heard from LurkerGbug yet today on account of his being off stocking up on shoe polish for Puetz. We shall see. BTW, no one has posted anything about our wonderful government putting out substantially revised numbers this morning! How come they can't seem to get it right the first time? Aren't the numbers they have to work with the same the first time around? Maybe they use broken calculators for the first pass at the figures! ) Anyway, the bottom line is that I feel we at Kitco who've been around for awhile must be VERY careful not to bully newcomers who hold different views.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 12:18)
Silver, Platinum & Palladium UP nicely today. Historically, the WHITES lead the gold market. RE-read TWO DOWN, TWO TO GO for future gold action:

(Thu Aug 28 1997 12:18)
stock margin debt to GDP
Nomercy: an interesting comment re: Malaysia's stock margin debt to GDP getting close to the 7% mark, similar to the U.S. in 1929. Can you or anyone else tell us the relevant statistic for the U.S. or Japanese market today? Are we close to the 1929 ratio/percentage?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 12:20)
What do I do? For a living?? 'Inquisitive' minds...must know?
My life is a humble one as well as an open book...but don't look in the closet... ;- )

I am as diversified in my work as I am in my portfolio...

Not that most care but here goes...I am small business owner ( 2 optical shops, non-union ;-0 ) , insurance agent, travel agent, traveling notary public, golf pro ( not ) , investor, ( butcher, baker, candlestick maker?? ) . I have crazy hours and sleep is something I will do when I die.

hobbies: golf, surf, read, ski ( both ) , kitco ( recent ) , travel, sex, wine...I am starting to bore myself... it's your turn... write some stuff...before 'work'


(Thu Aug 28 1997 12:24)


I must take the other side... The market correction is closer to it's end than
the beginning.. Meaning, soon, we will see stabilization... Nice rotation into
the small caps occurring. Anyone short this market ( overall ) should be cautious
now and begin to cover.

Best regards.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 12:29)
@the scene
I believe it is do or die this time. Dec 330 +++ or bust!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 12:39)
A discussion of the India's and the Tigers' currency problems and a prediction for higher US rates after the Euro in 1999.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 12:54)
Carl- I've raised the issue of Greespan's affiliation with Objectivism of a couple of occassions. I think it is important to determine if he has changed philosophies, or if he is working hard from within, compromising only to the extent necessary to keep his job. I think he has fallen from Randian grace, although I've seen conspiracy-type musings that the White House keeps him in check by threatening to expose details of the Fed ( which I, as a former college instructor in economics, still fail to understand ) I think the topic is important, however.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 13:15)
WSF, Is Greenspan Dr. Robert Stadler, as Mike Skeller says? What do you think?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 13:23)
CARL: Did you find my post to you yesterday with some afterthoughts to your question?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 13:33)
Donald, Have a lot of stuff and will look through it.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 13:41)
Well said Strad in both your posts. You're a good man, a thoughtful man, an intelligent man, a Patriotic man ( you believe in free speech and free exchange of ideas ) , a refreshingly HONEST man, and overall an officer and a gentleman... ( Now if I could just convice you that the sky isn't falling : ) GUSTO, you asked why I pulled out of the market at this time. OK, no exotic analsys or Elliot wave theories behind it, my reasons are fairly simple. 1 ) The market is at historic highs with respect to P/E ratios, 2 ) The market is about 20% overpriced 3 ) The last BUBBLE push from 6000 to 8000 was frightening and I have Acraphobia ( sic? ) , 4 ) I want to protect the enormous gains I've made over the past 8 1/2 years, 5 ) The market ran out of steam after punching the 8000 barrier and has shown somewhat frightening volatility ever since, 6 ) The economy has virtually RUN OUT of any further good news to hype which could drive the market higher, 7 ) I'm concerned about international events such as the Japanese banking crises, EU problems and Middle East tensions, 8 ) Historically we often have had a nasty "October surprise" and I have a feeling we may be in for one this year, 9 ) I'm greedy and violating my own "buy and hold" precepts in the hope of a 15% to 20% correction so I can BUY BACK IN!!!!! See, nothing too advanced here, just more country bumpkin common sense.....

(Thu Aug 28 1997 13:47)
To ...STUFF...
Was it you who said I like to pay $250 over spot for gold "Saints"?? You gotta be kididng! I have a source that sells them ( BU ) for $95 over..just not divulging it! ; ) Remember, we're talking about the "Most beautiful coin ever designed" according to most Numismatists....but I like Maples also, ( had to throw that in since it's Bart's site and all, thanks Bart )

(Thu Aug 28 1997 13:51)
Curious about the "crash" Mr. Puetz. What percentage decline of DJIA would you define as a crash, starting from say, yesterdays close? Also, what do you consider the probability of said crash in 5 weeks ( assuming the DOW does NOT break the 8050 barrier in the interim, thus postponing said crash according to your view ) . Myself, I expect a nice correction of 15% to 20% from the highs of which we seem to have seen approx. 6% already.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 14:03)
More the Merrier
Lurking Gldbug and others: your last post is refreshing....I believe your input is valuable to kitco seem to have good intuition and that we need more of....I like your market timing approach....your rationale for taking your cards off the table are spot on, I applaud your prowess. Now, as long as we can all get along here at kitco ( no personal name calling ) and appreciate that diversity of opinion is the spice of life and will hopefully makes us all collectively wealthier, in terms of knowledge, wisdom, and money. I, for one, appreciate your input, insights and country bumpkin straight talk. We need your input and we need diversity so at the very least we have descenting voices which may poke wholes in our egocentric logic or reveal inconsistencies or may just tell us, that sometimes following the crowd ( despite its madness ) is fruitful so long as we are at the back of the pack and can stand at the edge of the cliff after the lemmings have pile over!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 14:07)
Carl- I just don't know about Greenspan. I thought the bubble would never get past 6000 because of Alan's '60s writings. If he is being true to his Objectivist past, then we are in deep doo-doo b/c that would imply that he feels any action he takes to introduce rationality into the markets might push us over the cliff. IMO, our best bet to get to the bottom of this is through Andrea Mitchell. I wish I could offer something concrete, but if it were easy, I'd be rich. ( LGB: I know, it is easy, 401K all the way! )

(Thu Aug 28 1997 14:13)
more stuff...then to 'work'...or golf? Decisions...
Kuston - Wow, where have you been? I inquired a while back to no avail...welcome back ( you've been lurking, I know ) . Anyway, I too have been following OJ ( you may have noticed ;- ) ) and if I may give my two cents.
El nino will probably have an effect on Florida and Brazil crops...maybe earlier than expected too...
MEDFLY...this little critter has not fully played out yet...the prices ( and it's moving up 2day ) do reflect a huge crop but I can't understand why there is little or NO concern over the MedFly. I have been gathering info and speaking to growers and everything is pointing to some pretty heavy crop destruction by that 'little-bugger'. The eradication measures ( releasing sterile flies ) is like 'pissing in the wind'. My California grower-friends are on the sidelines ( MedFly free ) with big grins just biding their time. They know what can and may happen ( been there, done that philosophy ) . Time will tell. We shall see.
So, with all this news I am building positions in various months and waiting to build more. D.A. had some good comments on strategies too. I built positions before limit-down ( ouch! ) and I am building after ( JAN 98 ) . I think ( and this is NOT a recommendation to "LGBUG-watchdog-concerned-for-the-'little-guy" and his "new fresh-faced lurkers with money to invest, get led astray by some 'analysts'" ( Aug27 15:00 ) there is some great potential in this market.
Strategies: your 21:06 The May future is probably a good bet, the downside risk, I think, has played itself out. Go for it! As for the May98 105 Call it is the most fairly priced of them all according to these guys ( this is a great URL ) :
Perhaps a good strategy is to buy some calls or futures now ( Jan or March ) and then wait, as D.A. said, and then go in big for May ( after Nov. expires and May trades more strikes ) .
Anyway, OJ WILL be interesting to watch, I am risking slightly more than 10% of my 'gamble-cash' on this wonderful FCOJ. Good to have you back. And next time I'm in Phoenix we WILL hit the 'white ball' around, no?


(Thu Aug 28 1997 14:15)
Carl and WSF....I don't think Greenspan is forgetting his 60s comments on hunch is that he is "politically" constrained by the real powers to be...namely his back is against a wall...he knows this market is completed irrational ( every economic fibre in his body is telling him that ) but officially he cannot reveal the truth...he is caught in Clinton's game of political expediency....this is a confidence game....a game which Clinton started with his first election when M3 money supply was increased under his command...this is an administration that manipulates economic indicators to suite their needs and agenda. This is a game which Greenspan cannot win, no matter what monetary policy levers he applies now. In other words, Greenspan knows theirs no way out.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 14:16)
What you guys are missing re Greenspan's seeming abandonment of his previous Zealotry re moentary policy, is that he recently got married to a younger bride. Now that he's "getting some" he just doesn't care about the economy so much anymore! Also he's confused because the economy has been violating all his historical models....

Spud Master
(Thu Aug 28 1997 14:17)
talk on the back of a cereal box...
Discussions about Greenspan's "philosophy" are absurd: the people at his level in government are only concerned with the getting and keeping of Power. Most amusing, to think that a "philosophy" would drive his actions.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 14:23)
Bart: I was wondering, when did this discussion site go on line? Also, have you noticed a relationship between market conditions and number of hits?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 14:23)
Markus- I aggree with your observations. I guess it is just too romantic a notion to suggest that Greenspan do a "This is John Galt speaking....", and stepping down wouldn't accomplish anything. I can't wait for his memoirs...

(Thu Aug 28 1997 14:29)
Spud Master- I don't think you understand Ayn Rand and Objectivism.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 14:29)
Gold Lease rates are plummeting.
How can we expect Gold to attempt a rally when there are apparently numerous entities who are willing to lend out their supplies at near liquidation rates. This is one ugly Gold market.

Senator Blutarsky
(Thu Aug 28 1997 14:30)
The Honourable, The Good, The Retired

Mr. LurkingGbug, Have a brew! It don't cost nothin'!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 14:34)
Spud Master: I vote with you. Philosophy is for freshman. In practice, the only thing that really matters is power. How do you get and more important, hanging on to it, once it is in your grasp. Alan Greenspan is no different than the rest of us. That is, the things we believed in our youth are interesting to recall but the real world has intruded in the meantime and those, earlier, beliefs are, simply, no longer "operative". .... As they say in the halls of power.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 14:42)
@the scene
I'm of the opinion that the only thing that'll get gold to cross that magic resistance line is about its own weight of nitro placed under it and set off. Else, all these overseas problems actually coming ashore here to roost! Two attemps at it today ending in abject failure. I believe it'll now persue some retesting of lower numbers before another attempt is made. Next time, it won't have to get quite so 'bleeding nose' lofty as the trend line is continuously declining. Stox will probably do well heading into the Labor Day weekend.

Rodney King
(Thu Aug 28 1997 14:46)
to LGBug/puetz, et al
Why can't we all just get along?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 14:47)
Spud Master @ 14:17
You stated " His Level In Government" Re: Greenspan. Sorry, Mr. Greenspan
is "not" a government official. Mr. Greenspan, is a Corporate
Representative, of the Federal Reserve Bank ( Central Bank ) . He has no
Government obligations, other than the contract, with governemnt, to
coordinate the financial assets of the USofA. ( the USofA,citizen's money )

(Thu Aug 28 1997 14:48)
I had this guy stop me on the road the other night and he gave me a heavy gold brick. He said it was a down payment on all the money I lost by not being a Savings and Loan officer in the 80's. He had a mask, but looked a little like Alan Greenspan. Has anybody check what Alan does at night? Has anybody checked Fort Knox? Are there any ships missing?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 14:52)
comments and thanks...
Neophyte/badger - thanks for the lesson!

StradMaster 00:54 - Well said, thanks.

Donald - Man or Machine? Your stamina amazes me...thanks

Chicken Little ( McNuggets ) - Get real!

Bernatz - you ole horndog! am I! I posted a little ditty regarding a short-skirted neighbor yesterday a.m. It was not as good as Strad's or Donald's but mine has potential updates ;- ) . Purple is my FAVORITE color...oh my! Good to see you're still around...

George - you are not waffleing are you? 17:15... "next week should be different" is a phrase I've heard before...I still like your experience and insight though...

Inquisitive ( whoever ) - I repeat...what do you do? Fess UP!

Allen ( USA ) - good stuff.

LGBUG - you've been getting lot's-o-press lately and you've been a busy-boy. Thanks for you're comments. You'll fit in. Stick around. I enjoy AND respect ALL sides 'to the coin'. This is only a discussion group and fresh-faced investors should, how do you say... caveat emptor...

RJ - The 'zep' days are gone and live only in a slightly blurry memory and my CD collection. And I have silk in the closet, but I prefer 100% US cotton. Armani shorts?? Have you lost all of your Seattle'ness'? I guess if Lbug can pay large premium for coins you can for shorts...;-0h my. Get yourself ready Newporter!!

Earl - you have a way with language... thanks bro.

Eldo - I don't know...I just wanted to say ELDO :- ) )

D.A. - thanks again and again.

Mooney - I've gotta go Cosh my Dingle feels sooooo good.

Gunrunner ( parrothead ) - can't not post, huh? I know it's tough. btw, I've been listening to a little G.D. ( fat-man ) . You like?? Anyone?? Been jamming to some "reckoning" CD..."I don't know, but it must have been the roses"... good stuff.

All - I love you man!!!!!

eb $$$$$$

Strad Master
(Thu Aug 28 1997 14:52)
Considered discussion
LURKINGgBUG: Many thanks for your very kind words. I shall have to try to live up to them. All the reasons you mentioned for pulling your chips off the table are the same reasons I'm a doom'n gloomer. We just look at the same data differently. Perhaps we start from different premises. Generally, I have a very sunny and playful disposition except when it comes to economic conditions. As we see today, the government consistently lies to us about the economy. The had the very same GDP numbers to work with the first time around. How come they suddenly come out with a revised number much higher than the first and announce it on what is traditionally one of the slowest weeks of the trading year? Answer: because they knew that if they released those figures when everyone was expecting them, they'd tank the market and then the Fed would have to arbitrage an even bigger batch of blue chips in the last half hour to try to pull up the average. That's our tax dollars they are playing with. OK, so, I got out of the stock market a bit early. I wasn't that good at it anyway. I still have some dry powder. I may still survive. My question to you: in light of the reasons causing you to pull out of the market ( all are very astute, BTW ) how will you KNOW after a drop of 20% that it might not just drop further after a bounce? Once market momentum takes over, when there is no support underneath ( remember this market has been going up at an 85 degree angle for quite awhile ) things can go down a lot faster from the pull of gravity ( fear ) . I know from my own trading experience that fear is a far stronger emotion than greed and most of the players in this market have never really experienced a drop that could stimulate real fear. YET! I'd hate to see you lose your gains chasing a dead bull up a wall. As I said previously, I'm no expert in these matters so perhaps I'm all wet.
Thanks again for your comments.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 14:57)
Philosophy- an analysis of the grounds of and concepts expressing fundamental beliefs.
Isn't that what this forum is about, as it applies to gold?

One's philosophy could be "Power is everything". Or, "Sleep with anything female" ( Clinton ) . My observation is that Greenspan's actions appear to be in conflict with his expressed philosophy. Either there is a reason for that, or his philosophy has changed. The reason is important
I don't think philosophy is for freshmen.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 15:04)
Eldorado ( 12:29 ) Looks like it's "bust time"....Comex gold down 1.70 ( in the midst of currency instability...yet ) Looks like we will be heading down to test the lows ( 313 ) .....Chinese central bank buying U.S. long bonds today....

(Thu Aug 28 1997 15:04)
Strad 14:52

Looking forward to Sunday...another Encore??


(Thu Aug 28 1997 15:09)
GOLD to quickly rise by year end as market crashes!!!! Advanced new wave theory based on 10 year analysis of most critical market influences.I call this my "Stadium Long Wave Odd Year Theory". Here are the fundamental principles. If you look at the KITCO historic price chart for GOLD, you see that gold had excellent gains around year end of 1987, 1989, 1991, 1993, and 1995!! YEAR END EVERY OTHER YEAR!!! Now what year comes next in this scenario, that's right , 1997!!! OK, what drives this? Well, obviously this corresponds to the "Stadium Waves" that occur when the Football playoffs take place around year end. The closer to year end, the more frenzied the fans, the greater the wave! Why is it only every other year? For that information, you'll have to subscribe to my Newsletter. Just E mail me and ask for my special report titled "Stadium Long Wave Odd and Even Study" by LurkerBug. It's only $99.95, little old ladies and young impressionable investors are invited to purchase this valuable report. E mail me at "" for details. If you order within 3 days, I'll even send you a personally autogrpahed copy of my bestselling book titled "Armageddon Next Tuesday, the coming collapse of Civilization as we Know it". Remember, you have only 3 days to order!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 15:10)

Could someone post the Money Supply figures when they come out this afternoon? Thanks.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 15:13)
@the scene
Ted -- Dec gold 'should' bounce off of 326.5 area and then bounce off of the low 328s before it does much else. Support and resistance. Simply play it by the day. Maybe it'll come down here somewhere and form a nice double bottom like it did on the 'upside' today. Consider it being in cruise mode up from there for a spell if that should be successful.

George Cole
(Thu Aug 28 1997 15:15)
gold and the dollar
Ted: Currency instability is bearish for gold if the result is a stronger dollar as we are seeing today. With dollar up sharply across the board, gold weakness not all that surprising. Strong stock market rebound also negative for the yellow. Nothing less than a bear market in U.S. financial assets will turn gold around in a fundamental way.

George Cole
(Thu Aug 28 1997 15:21)
XAU and HUI maintaining modest gains despite bullion selloff. If these gains are still there at the close, odds are the yellow will rally again very shortly as Eldorado anticipates.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 15:27)
one more scarey thing...
It think yesterday a few people were discussing ( was it Front and George? ) removing funds/stocks with a phonecall? And Front ( i think ) said that phone lines will be a gnarled-up-busy mess...right? Well, did anyone have trouble with the 800 #'s nationally ( USA ) yesterday?? I was told, by my broker ( after I called his toll # ) that 800 was F***ED-UP for some reason, or another... If it ever starts hitting the fan the phones will NOT save'd be better off with 'pony-express'. Anyway, whoever was discussing that yesterday the timing was SCAREY!!


Spud Master
(Thu Aug 28 1997 15:27)
1 can short
6Pak: Don't fool yourself - Amendment 16 to the US Constitution to the contrary - the Federal Reserve is de facto a part of the "government" - you know - that thing that pays lip-service to the US Constitution. A cabal by any other name would emit the same foul odor of world hegemony.
Anyone playing by the notion it isn't - even more amusing. Go out and try to buy shares in the Federal Reserve. Just the same old power game - slop out "freedom" & "democracy" & other prole-feed to the masses while you & your bunch of good old boys & girls play god ruling the world behind the scenes. They fear gold because they can't fabricate it like they do paper play money. If people stop believing in paper play money, those in power suddenly aren't. Gold will be crucified until the last utter moment to further their bestial lust for control, power.

That moment isn't too far off: too many people now need food and fuel. Those two things can't be faked or sold to control the market price: they get used up permanently. In short, politics is crime. Politicians are criminals.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 15:29)
Japanese Silver Imports

Japanese silver imports rise 40.9% to 834.46 tonne yr/yr during first seven months of 1997.
Who said that silvers use in photography really going down. Or the Japanese anticipating a price increase?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 15:31)
Aurator - re: Lunar calanders. I recall that the Biblical calander of the Old Testament started at Passover ( '..this will be the first of months for you..' ) . The seventh month was known for being almost entirely set aside for atonement and celebration of the ingathering of harvest. So one could look at that month as being the month of "reaping what you sow". In the case of sowing folly, you reap the wind: hence market crashes.

This will not put me on LGB's good guy list, I'm sure.

EB - thanks for the feedback.

All - We all reserve the right the keep our eyes open and to adjust our position according the the situation. Who knows what it all will look like after a 20% decline. The sun could shine upon us all. Keep that learning alive.

George Cole - great posts, good analysis. Great adjustments. Do you sail?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 15:32)
To answer your question as to why I don't believe in an all out crash, and that a correction will turn back up. 1 ) There are all kinds of stop loss trading curbs in place that prevent total hysteria, 2 ) AS I keep saying, inflows from 401K plan sare SOOO huge that they provide an enormous cushion to market falls ( $26.5 BILLION flowed into mutual funds in July, much of it from 401 K's and that was at the SAME TIME as $15 Billion was moved into money market funds by folks like me who didn't like DOW 8000! ) These 401K's are a fairly recent phenomena, and they'll continue to fuel the market into the forseable future no matter what the market is doing. The rewards of contributing are just too great not too. You make huge gains even in a droppping market! 3 ) The economy is way too strong for a crash, deficit coming down, interest rates low, industries diversified, Energy and commodities cheap, TAX CUT on the way for 98, productivity high, and America's investment wealth is far more evenly distributed than it was in 1929. Add to this the market's tendency to quickly rebound from large losses since all the new "curbs" and other manipulations have been put in place, coupled with the strength of the FED, Banking community, and Mutual fund managers with all kinds of tools at their disposal who will never allow a 1929 scenario to recur, U.S. strength in the world economy ( remember in 1929 it was our economic isolationism that partly led to our demise ) , and finally consider that in the event of a genuine meltdown/crash occuring, ( though I consider it an extremely remore possibility ) things would be so bad for small players like me that gold or Fed reserve notes would be not much better than Equities anyway, and you can see why I take the view that the SAFEST long term strategy for protecting your wealth is in stokcs. Course we also have historical precedent, and from that we can clearly see that stocks have made far more avergae citizens wealthy than gold ever has, even if you discount the mania of the past 10 years.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 15:34)
This is one heavy gold market: Record physical demand, bullish large short position, falling global stock markets, weakening dollar, relative strength in the XAU, silver and PGMS, larger than expected GDP, Asian currency turmoil, and any and all other bullish news or technical considerations of late are barely able to lift it. Now the question is, where is a floor sturdy enough to support it.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 15:39)
Vee pizzed off

LurkingGbug make KGB guyz mad. Vee Zend Fireplug Agent vit 75 mil eyebrow to szeet talk guy.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 15:42)
Spud Master @ 15:27
"Cabal - Politics is crime - Politicians are Criminals."

Canada has no amendment 16 to the USofA Constitution, nor, is our Bank of
Canada ( Central Bank ) , a de-facto part of the "Government"

"Don't fool yourself" interesting. The USofA citizen has the exact same
problem as the Canadian citizen. Modern Artificial Control. Be Quiet -
Consume - and die. You state that I as a Canadian, must look at the USofA
Constitution to understand the difference, of a Corporation, and
Government agency. I think not, the facts speak different. The control
of the market, via, gold, also speaks different, eh! Take care.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 15:44)
LurkingGbug Don't know enough to know if you are correct in all your assertions but I know you are looking at the financial situation from the other side of the table from the local norm. Rather than heading for a big blow off you seem to see the situation as one that has a long way to go. May be it would make things clearer if you could post a few words on why this looks like a part of the rise rather than the end of it. I think most see the current situation a "good" for stocks but many are sufficiently contrarian to see such "boom" as indicating the immediate onset of the bust. Like Sept as Puetz implies.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 15:55)
Kommisar Agent... "YouVILL convess VHAT and WHOM has putted You upskt to Dizz Nonzenze you Amerikan Shwine Shvinesky"... LukerBug "Never, I'll NEVER confess"...Kommisar Agent "Den Vee Vill Have to taksk meazures,you vill now be forced to recopy Puetzkee's Newzlettesr on de Blakboards, Vord for Vord, 100 times and..." ( interuppted by LurkingGbug ) "I confess, I confess Commandant, it was Hepcat who put me up to it, please, please no more Puetz....arghhhhhh....."

(Thu Aug 28 1997 15:56)
Prime theme of Blanchard's latest edition of GOLD NEWSLETTER, "unprecedented short positions could catapult gold", has the clear
ring of truth. A "must read", "George Cole quality" issue. Borrow
from a friend if you don't happen to subscribe.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 15:58)
So what?
So...Silver up 15 cents and then down 15 cents...ho hum...what's new..just another day...BS...I can take the up 15 cents...but what's this down 15 cents the same day?? What a roller-coaster!! Go SSC!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:00)
..... More Stuff .....
Aug 27 1997 22:44
LurkingGbug wrote: "I like both slabbed Saints at MS 62 or 63, NGC / PCGS of course ( which carry less than a $175 and $235 premium respectively ) and BU raw Saints which can be had for about $ 130 to $150 over spot."

Sorry for my "Perhaps it explains his willingness to pay $150 - $275 over spot to buy his "Saints"." Please amend to $130 - $235. Leave intact, "Its just gold, son, dont get carried away."


Your "E mail me at """ was in bad taste.

I tend to agree with a lot you say. It took me awhile to find my "Kitco voice" and I suspect you will find yours with time. Its a tricky thing, telling another that his tenets are lame, his focus fuzzy, his arguments are weak, and his communication skills are bereft, without actually saying it. Perhaps Earl could tutor you on some more sophisticated methods of taking someone down a peg or two. Your "", though obviously made with whimsical intent, is out of line. Hey, I dont agree with a single thing Puetz writes, but I see no bad faith or attempt to deceive. He views these markets differently, thats all.

As for you most recent views on the unlikely crash that many here seem to crave, I agree.. You also mentioned that owning "Saints" is more fun than owning other forms of gold. I submit that owning gold in any form is a necessary evil and very little fun at all. I would guess that owning gold that cost $100 over spot, would be the least fun of all.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:07)
LGB - you're funny bone was in gear there. Much more interesting than your nasty side. You might try writing satires. There is a market, you know.

Spud Master
(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:12)
...a heap of shatterd warrants...
BillD: See you at "SSC'sers Anonymous" tonight.

"Hi, my name is Spuds, and I'm a SSC warrant owner."

Some day, Bill, our dingy will float in. Have faith. Believe. Shoot lots of film ( grin ) .

George Cole
(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:15)
Dow and Gold
Dow off 90 points today -- got smashed again the last hour. XAU up 0.4% HUI flat. I agree with Puetz that 7500 is the critical level, although I do not believe his "total collapse' scenario will follow such a penetration.

Still, gold should start doing much better if this level is breached with conviction. That will confirm we are in a BEAR MARKET -- not another correction to be quickly followed by a move to new highs.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:16)
..... Kommissar .....

Careful.. Rocco has taken a liking to this Lurking fellow. It has not been such an easy couple of months for Fireplug, perhaps he could use a rest. When I last saw him, he and Congressman Bob where exchanging briefcases. I would think the adventure that followed would have taught Fplug that Kalifornia is bad for his health. Rocco has been ornery of late; its the heat, it saps his goodwill. I fear him when he gets this way. Lets let this dog lie.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:19)
@Eldorado+ George
Thanks for the input as this confused mind needs all the help it can get!
Asian markets should be interesting tonight and I wonder if Japan can hold its own again if S.E.Asian markets take another tumble...

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:20)
Re: gold spot weirdness in relation to the rest of the markets, etc. I believe it is basic manipulation on the part of G7 CB's. They know that the market has its eye on gold as an indicator of capital flight. They are selling into demand in order to keep the signals from coming out. The only thing they can do this with is gold, ( poss. silver??? ) since that is what they have in their vaults. PL and PA markets dicey. More chaotic. I believe they don't care as much about that. Gold is THE classic barometer and so is hammered to keep the crowd from wavering. This will continue as long as our bonds and western currencies are not under duress. Wasn't it a "bond" crisis that blew the lid on gold in 1980? Anyone have comment?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:21)
@the scene
Puetz -- You got your close below 7700 today.

BillD -- At least the silver gave up no more than it gained today, unlike the gold!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:26)
S. Roach -Morgan Stanley - Savings Rate diminishing
US: No Saving Grace

Let's face it, the so-called miracles of deficit reduction have done little for the bond market in 1997.
This conclusion continues to come through loud and clear in the price action of the Treasury's new
inflation-indexed bonds, with real 10-year rates having held relatively steady at around 3.6% over the
past six months. In my view, this outcome is largely traceable to America's seemingly chronic savings
deficiency -- a proxy for the flows which shape the supply side of the real interest rate equation.

The historical linkage between national saving trends and real interest rates is relatively tight. In the
1960s -- when real rates on a 10-year Treasury were hovering in the 2.25% vicinity -- net national
saving ( gross saving less the depreciation charges that go to replacing the economy's worn out capital
stock ) averaged 11.2% of GDP. By contrast, in the 1980s -- when real long-term interest rates
soared to around 5% -- the national saving rate plunged to 5.9%. Of course, the main difference
between the high saving era of the 1960s and the subpar saving of the 1980s is traceable to the
government sector; indeed, reflecting the outsized federal budget deficits of the Reagan era, the
government sector swung from enjoying a net saving rate of 2.5% in the 1960s to an average
"dis-saving" rate of -1.3% in the 1980s. As a result, our estimates suggest that fully 70% of the
reduction in the net national saving rate from the 1960s to the 1980s is traceable to Washington's fiscal

Consequently, with the bulk of America's saving shortfall linked to the seemingly chronic budget
deficits of the federal sector, it has become conventional wisdom to believe that deficit reduction was a
sure-fire recipe for a return to higher saving and lower real interest rates. All other things equal, there's
nothing wrong with that logic. It just turns out, however, that all other things have not been equal. The
problem is that there has been a sharp drop in private sector saving in the 1990s that has all but wiped
out the benefits that might have been forthcoming in an era of deficit reduction. Indeed, the net private
saving rate ( personal and business sectors, combined ) has averaged just 5.9% over the 1990-96
period, down 1.3 percentage points from the norm of the 1980s and fully 2.9 percentage points below
the rate that prevailed in the saving-led 1960s. The data for 1996 say it all -- a government saving rate
that has gone to "zero" but an overall net national saving rate that came in at just 5.7%, slightly below
the average 5.9% reading recorded in the 1980s.

Therein lies one of the great ironies of the 1990s. As the budget deficit temporarily disappears before
our very eyes, the national saving rate has failed to surge as widely expected -- an unfortunate
by-product of a falling private sector saving rate. The how and why of the great private sector saving
deficiency of the 1990s are not that well understood, but two possible explanations come to mind:
First, there is the wealth effect from the mother of all stock market rallies that now shows up loud and
clear in the revised national income statistics ( see my August 6 comment, "Presto -- the Wealth
Effect" ) ; surging wealth is a substitute for saving and encourages individual investors to spend well in
excess of the current pace of income generation. A second possibility is the counter to the
once-accepted demographic profile of the saving habits of an aging generation of baby boomers;
taking the other side of that tale, we have long maintained that the impact of changing life-styles has
raised the spending propensity of older Americans at precisely the moment when their population
share is surging. To the extent we're right, the demography of the 1990s is actually skewing aggregate
personal saving to the downside.

Whatever the reason, one thing seems for certain: Even in an era of dramatic budget deficit reduction,
America's net national saving rate currently stands at only about half the rate which prevailed in the
1960s. Under those circumstances, in my view, there is absolutely no reason to expect real interest
rates to return to the lows that prevailed during that earlier period. That same message is coming
through loud and clear in the inflation-indexed bond market. So much for the super bull case for

Stephen Roach ( New York )

Important Disclosure Information at end of this Forum

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:27)
Rogue River country
Is gold more valuable as a pain killer or brain disorder treatment than as a value asset? Sometime ago I heard on the news that reseachers were getting positive results from gold treatment of brain disorders in elderly people--don't know any other details.
Also, about an hour ago Paul Harvey stated that researchers have discovered that the gold ring finger joints had only one-third the chance
of developing arthritis as any of the other fingers. Widespread use of gold for medical treatments would use up significant gold quantities I suspect.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:28)
Inflation on the rise
US: An Inflation Heads-Up and Other Tidbits

1. August PPI ( to be released Sept 12 )

Our preliminary forecast is +0.5% for the headline and unchanged for the core. The anticipated jump
is entirely attributable to a sharp spike in wholesale gasoline prices in August. Note that while this
forecast may be revised next week when we get additional food price information, it seems almost
certain that the string of declines in headline PPI is about to come to an end.

2. August CPI ( to be released Sept 16 )

Our early forecast is +0.3% for the headline and +0.2% for the core. Gas prices were up -- though
not nearly as much as at the producer level. Also, a drop in the apparel and motor vehicle categories
should help offset the typical rise in tuition rates ( which does not appear to be fully discounted by the
seasonal adjustment factors ) .

3. Minimum Wage

The second installment of the minimum wage hike kicks in on Sept 1. The wage was increased from
$4.25 to $4.75 on October 1, 1996 and will be increased an additional 40 cents to $5.15 next week.
While the second phase of the hike is smaller in percentage terms ( 8.4% versus 11.8% ) , the overall
effect on wages should be slightly greater because a larger proportion of the work force is likely to be
affected. We estimate that about 4% of workers were affected last year ( those who made between
$4.25 and $4.75 per hour ) but that more than 7% will be affected this year ( those who were brought
up to $4.75 a year ago plus those who make between $4.75 and $5.15 ) . Thus, the overall magnitude
of the wage effect this year should be slightly larger, and we may see some accompanying modest
acceleration in average hourly earnings in the months ahead. One final note -- even though the first
phase of the wage hike took effect in October 1996, there wasn't any hint of impact on average hourly
earnings until November and December; thus it may be another month or two before there is any
noticeable impact this time around.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:31)
China bond rumor.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:31)
Donald, I found your posting of the 27th 13:14. I'm with you all the way until your solution of "a tamper proof currency". I don't see how that is possible even in principle. What people can do, they can undo, unless it's an act that introduces entropy . We can shuffle cards, and the shuffle is tamper proof ( we can't unshuffle them ) . But what kind of a currency commitment can't be undone when the the going gets rough. Not gold, we know from experience. The EU is trying, but they can't even get an agreement in place long enough to violate it. What would you suggest?

George Cole
(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:35)
market action
Allen:The latest data from the World Gold Council shows that reports of big CB selling are greatly exaggerated. Supplying cheap gold loans to short sellers is their key method of manipulation. And didn't someone here mention that gold lease rate plunged recently. Perhaps this reflects additional CB lending to the shorts

Strong bond rally today was another factor behind gold's weakness. Money moving out of stocks and into bonds? Financial market participants must lose confidence in BOTH stocks and bonds as was the case in the 1970s before serious money begins to move into the yellow. As Captain Bill at the Privateeer has pointed out all major gold bull markets have occurred when bond yields were trending strongly higher.

If you deflationists are right -- stocks will go down but bonds will go up. No big gold bull for awhile under that scenario. But when bond yields move up again in anticipation of massive reflation, then gold takes off.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:35)
Malasya - 'Mahathir is looking more and more crazed
The Economeister


HONG KONG ( MktNews ) - The Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht hit record lows against the
dollar Thursday, while the Indonesian rupiah came under renewed pressure amid sharply lower
regional stock markets, as investors reassess the underlying economic fundamentals in Southeast
Asia, traders said.
The ringgit hit an all-time low of 2.8920 against the U.S. dollar in busy trade amid fears the
current account deficit for July is set to widen and after stock market trading curbs were imposed.
The move by the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange to impose curbs on trading in stocks that make
up its key index in a bid to protect them from excessive speculation was seen by traders as a
desperate move.
" ( Malaysian Prime Minister ) Mahathir is looking more and more crazed and he seems to be
inviting the investors to have a go," said a currency trader at a major Hong Kong bank. He said
pressure is likely to remain on the currency while there is danger of a overheating economy and an
adverse trade account.
Yesterday, deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who is also finance minister, told reporters:
"I will announce a definite plan to deal with the current account deficit in the next few weeks."
However, investors appeared unconvinced. Malaysia is expected to record a higher current account
deficit in July, following of a trade deficit for the six months to June quoted at 2.7 billion ringgit
( 964.3 million dollars ) .
After a sharp sell-off, the Malaysian currency recovered a little to end the Asian session at
2.8885 from Wednesday's close of 2.8300, a level unseen since Malaysia floated its currency in
1973. Traders said unlike the central bank of the Philippines, the Malaysian central bank, Bank
Negara, refrained from intervention.
The IMF Thursday was reported warning Malaysia against the pursuit of further "mega"
prestige projects in the current climate.
In a move many traders see as scape-goating and desperation, Mahathir said Thursday
international financier George Soros has been involved in short-selling on the Kuala Lumpur Stock
Exchange, according to the official Bernama news agency. It quoted him as telling local media editors
that he had evidence that foreign funds, including those managed by Soros, had shifted their attention
from the foreign exchange market to Malaysia's equity market.
Malaysian asset markets were also hit by a report on a news service, later denied, that Morgan
Stanley was poised to pull out of Malaysian stocks. Reuters quoted Peter Churchouse, chief regional
stratgist at Morgan Stanley, as saying: "This ( trading curbs ) is going to drive particularly foreign
investors ( away ) . Look, I don't need to be involved. Why should I even be in this market if they're
going to play these sort of games."
Husan Pai, director of the Hong Kong fund at Indosuez Asset Management Asia Ltd in Hong
Kong said of the ringgit's weakness: "In intra-day terms it's a chain effect from the controls on
margin trading by the Malaysian government this morning."
Malaysia's key stock index fell by 4.2 percent on the surprise stock trade restrictions and as the
ringgit hit a record low against the U.S.
dollar for the second day running.
The ringgit has fallen by more than 14 percent since July 1, a day before Thailand effectively
devalued its baht, triggering regional currency turmoil.
Other stock exchanges fell in the region exacerbating currency declines. The Philippine Stock
Exchange led the way with a 9.3 percent plunge amid gloom caused by disappointing first-half
economic results and a sustained moved of the peso below 30 against the U.S. dollar.
The peso recovered slightly to close at 30.07 to the dollar after falling 1.4 percent the previous
day. Dealers said the Central Bank of the Philippines had stepped to sell dollars in the Phillippine
Dealing System. Unlike most other regional units, the peso is not traded out of Singapore.
Although the Hong Kong dollar remains steady within its HK Monetary Authority intervention
bands, the Hang Seng index fell 4.2 percent Thursday, its fifth biggest one-day points decline, on the
back of the regional turmoil.
"The risk of investing in Asia has gone up," said a senior treasurer at a European bank in
"Asia is being derated by investors who are looking at fundamentals and some of the wayward
policy pronouncements," he said, adding the currency turmoil sparked by the Thai baht's float on
July 2 had exposed the hidden weaknesses in regional economies. The baht also sank to a new
record offshore low Thursday, at 34.20 against the U.S. dollar, from 33.75 a day earlier amid reports
of a sharp depletion of Thailand's foreign reserves and high foreign debt levels will elongate the
economic recovery period.
Amid speculation the government would call snap elections, the Thai parliament debated
Thursday the nation's economic situation, which culminated in the float of the baht on July 2.
The Indonesian rupiah, which had been stable lately after the authorities pushed up interest
rates to punitive levels to cushion the currency after it hit a record low of 3,010, came under pressure
Thursday as the rates eased.
The rupiah ended Thursday at 2,945.00 against the U.S. dollar after touching an intra-day low of
2,955.00 from Wednesday's close of 2,857.50.
The Singapore dollar closed at 1.5175 from an intra-day low of 1.5185 against the U.S. dollar
from Wednesday's close of 1.5042.

Back Home Page Directory

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:38)
CARL: I suggest gold with full convertability by every citizen of the world. That is tamperproof. Others have suggested a basket of commodities that include gold. You might want to read a book called "Money Meltdown" by Judy Shelton. Earl suggested it to me and it was well worth the read.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:41)
EB - You caught me.. But If Bob Dylan can get invited by the pope to play at a youth concert, can I at least occaisionally post to Kitco.!?! ...And no, you cant have my Bud....

LurkingGBug ( re: your 15:09 ) Good one, but you for got the ; ) : 0

Badger - Im interested in your casting techniques. Please send e-mail to address above. Thanx...

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:43)
Lurking Gbug: To qualify as a crash, the DJIA would have to fall at least 35% from its early August within 10 to 13 weeks. The crash is still on course. By the way, I bought the shoe-polish today. Looking forward to the shoe-shine.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:46)
Donald, I don't see how a government promise of gold convertability is any more likely to be kept when certain interests are at stake than a government promise to only print money at a rate that matches the size of the economy. Help me understand.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:47)
Markus: It's very difficult to compare leverage in the US stock market today with the levels of 1929 and Tokyo during 1990. The reason is, the use of home-equity loans, credit-cards, and derivatives have dwarfed the traditional leverage measure -- margin debt. Nonetheless, total leverage is much greater than 1929.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:49)
Ted: I'm still trying to save ya'. Sell stocks now before it's too late.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:49)
"Weakness in the dollar lends support to precious metals".

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:53)
George Cole
It appears that the Dow has lost momentum. Your call of a 'bear market' is very realistic.
Wage costs are going higher, the CRB index today was up over 240 notwithstanding that gold, silver, copper dragged it down.
Earnings not meeting expectations. Exports sales slowdown in Asian markets will hit projected growth & earnings.
The impact of world stock market and currency devaluation HAS NOT YET BEEN FACTORED in US prices. The high US $ creates inflationary pressures in Europe, especially Germany.
The good news for stocks is over.
Gold will make its move within the next 60 days as physical demand will pressure the 'shorts' and then its game over.
I believe that gold will move higher within the next few weeks as the currency & collateral effect in Asia and possibly South America and Europe ( they have large loans exposure re: Tiger countries ) . Investment buying in gold would be the final straw.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:54)
Eldorado: We did get the close below DJIA 7700 today. However, it wasn't as convincing as I would like to have seen. Although, the S&P 500 futures did get another big sell-off after the DJIA close. The DJIA loks to open 50 lower tomorrow morning. I expect some type of test of the critical 7500 level tommorrow. At 7500, the DJIA would be down 10% from its highs. That's a level that both George Cole and I view as very critical. During the past few years, all corrections have held at 10%. However, I don't think this one will. The stock market crash is still on course.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 16:54)
Dow/Gold Ratio 23.77 Third day in the 23's, this indicator is still confirming that the Dow top is in. I would like to see some more confirmation from other indexes.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 17:00)
Dow - down for 5th time in 6 days
U.S. Stocks Retreat, Whipsawing Investors; IBM Leads Decline

U.S. stocks fell for the fifth time in six days, led by computer-related shares like International Business Machines Corp. and
chipmaker Altera Corp. The New York Stock Exchange imposed its ``uptick'' rule four times as the Dow Jones Industrial
Average fell 128, rebounded to a 10-point gain and then zigzagged back down. The Dow average closed down 92.90 to
7694.43, the lowest in almost two weeks.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 17:05)
Brazil down 3.86% today, Mexico down 2.51%
It is important to note the worldwide implications of all the action since July. There are 5 countries in Europe down 10% from their highs, at least 5 Asian countries down 10% so far. The US and the UK are two notable exceptions. I still maintain that there MUST be a major bank failure hidden in all of this bad news. It does not seem possible to me that all the currency traders in these banks could have made profits.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 17:08)
World markets tumble

Stocks sink in virtually every major Asian

Copyright  1997
Copyright  1997 The Associated Press

HONG KONG ( August 28, 1997 12:10 p.m. EDT ) -- Stocks tumbled in
almost every Asian market Thursday, compounding turmoil brought on by
weeks of currency weakness throughout the region.

Hong Kong's key stock index, the Hang Seng, was dragged down 4.2
percent by weakness in neighboring Asian markets, futures-related selling
and fears of higher local interest rates. In Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, share
prices fell to their lowest levels since August 1993 and the local currency,
the ringgit, tumbled to a 26-month low against the dollar.

The key Hang Seng Index of blue chips tumbled 657.85 points to
14,876.10. It shed 13.27 points Wednesday.

"All the bad things happened at once," said Frederick Tsang, research
director at PrimeEast Securities. "The futures expired today, regional stock
markets fell heavily, interbank rates have crept higher, and there was a
weak U.S. market overnight."

In Manila, share prices plunged to a record low close on a loss of investor
confidence in prospects for growth in the Philippines' economy. The PSE
Index lost 212.06 points to 2,071.97.

The 4 percent fall in Malaysian share prices spilled over into Singapore,
where share prices fell sharply in heavy trading. The benchmark Straits
Times Industrials Index dropped 69.34 points to 1,846.62.

In Taipei, share prices fell as investors dumped shares across the board
on worries of possible political instability in Taiwan's ruling party. The
Weighted Index tumbled 223.18 points to 9,827.49.

In Seoul, share prices fell sharply on rumors that the Hanwha Group, South
Korea's ninth largest conglomerate, was under financial strain. The
company denied the rumors. The Korea Composite Index fell 13.42 points
to 716.86.

In Tokyo, share prices finished mixed in light trading.

The benchmark Nikkei Stock Average of 225 selected issues gained 9.51
points, or 0.05 percent, closing at 18,451.45 points. On Wednesday, the
index fell 373.04 points, or 1.98 percent.

Investors avoided making major moves ahead of the release Friday of a
series of Japanese economic data, including industrial production figures,
the consumer price index and unemployment.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 17:12)
gold thumb
Ref: Philby's 16:27 post on gold rings to prevent arthritis-
The next time you see a guy with rings on all ten fingers, it will be
me. Did they say whether the rings had to be real gold or gold-plated
would do?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 17:25)
Money Supply - M2 & M3
Thursday August 28 4:41 PM EDT

U.S. M-2 money supply up $15.0 bln in August 18 wk

NEW YORK, Aug 28 ( Reuter ) - U.S. M-2 money supply rose $15.0 billion in the August 18 week to $3,966.4 billion, the
Federal Reserve said.

The broader M-3 measure rose $21.3 billion to $5,191.2 billion. M-1 was up $3.2 billion to $1,066.5 billion, the Fed said.

The Fed said the four-week moving average of M-2 was $3,950.1 billion versus $3,941.4 billion in the previous week.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 17:32)

Witness Protection Plan make Rocco Onery, not kalifornia heat vave.
Fireplug rekkomend for Rocco hiz KOOL Dacha in Ziberia, ven Rocco kan elude Protection Guyz.
Rocco also vorry that KGB raid place vhere platinum hide.
Vee alzo know Rocco lose big in Stoks and uze Vitness Protection Money to buy vit.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 17:35)
Hem, Philby; That's really peculiar, my parents had an old wives tale about a copper band around the ankle or wrist reducing the athritis. With gold having similar properties as copper ( and silver ) , i.e. very high thermal and electrical conductivities, maybe there's an identifiable physical cause and effect in this...quantum electro dynamical effect? QED

(Thu Aug 28 1997 17:47)
to RJ
RJ -

I appreciate your coin comments of yesterday. You said that
ML's and KR's are IRS reportable ( required by fed law ) , but
AE's and VP's are not. What makes this so? or Why is this
so? Also, what about silver coins? Are sellers ( e.g. coin
shops ) also required to report to the IRS those individuals
who buy Silver Eagles ( SE ) , for example? Thanks in advance
for your response.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 17:47)
The spark?
Nuclear Test in Russia?
The United States has asked Moscow about a ``seismic event''
12 days ago at or near a nuclear test site to help determine
whether Russia breached a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear
test blasts, the White House said Thursday. Russia, which
announced in 1992 that it was halting nuclear explosions, denied
any suggestion it had carried out a test and said it was
sticking to its moratorium. A spokesman for the U.S. Arms
Control and Disarmament Agency, Bob Waters, said the United
States was ``seeking clarification from Moscow.'' The Washington
Times cited unnamed administration officials as saying they
suspected Russia set off a test explosion at Novaya Zemlya, a
remote Arctic site closed after the collapse of the Soviet Union
and reopened in 1992.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 17:49)
NOMERCY OR ANYONE: I am trying to get some news from the Philippines but I am being blocked because I have used it to often. Can someone else try?
Here is the URL.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 17:57)
Treasury launches new bonds

BRASLIA, 08/28/97 - Today, for the first time in 27 years, the National Treasury will launch 2
year bonds. For the first time in Brazil's history the institution will launch 5 year securities which are
pegged to the foreign exchange rate. These programs are designed to diversify the government's
debt portfolio and provide a vision of stability for the Real Plan, given support to long term credit
operations provided by the banking sector. ( Gazeta Mercantil ) ( JJ )

(Thu Aug 28 1997 18:07)
OK, a 35% decline in 10 to 15 weeks ( what happened to 5 weeks??? ) Now then, what did you say the probability of this crash is again in your view?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 18:09)
heading out the door
Donald: I tried the URL and got the same message. BBL

(Thu Aug 28 1997 18:09)


What I could find at

Central Bank ups liquidity reserves

The Philippine Central Bank or Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas ( BSP ) raised yesterday the liquidity reserve requirements of banks on peso deposits by three percentage points to eight percent to quell speculative attack on the peso which hit an intra-day low of P30.45 to the dollar in yesterday's trading.

"The higher liquidity requirements are necessary to safeguard price and monetary stability in response to new developments,'' BSP Gov. Gabriel C. Singson said.

The peso closed yesterday at P30.10 to the dollar resulting in a weighted average of P30.234 to $1, off the day's low of P30.45 to the dollar after the BSP sold dollars and announced the new liquidity reserve requirement.

The peso lost 26 centavos compared to Tuesday's weighted average of P29.97 to $1.

Banks must comply with the new threshold today `'by purchasing the equivalent amount of market-yielding, short-term government securities'' from the BSP treasury, Singson said.

The BSP chief said that the hike in the liquidity reserve is expected to contract liquidity by another P30.9 billion.

He reiterated that the BSP would only step in from time to time to moderate or smoothen out fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.

The BSP's intervention yesterday, Singson said, was due to the wide fluctuation in the exchange rate.

Overnight borrowing rate cut

The Philippine Central Bank or Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas ( BSP ) lowered anew yesterday its overnight borrowing rate by two percentage points even though the peso-dollar market succumbed to some speculation.

In a press conference, BSP Gov. Gabriel C. Singson said that the Monetary Board approved a reduction in the BSP's overnight rate from 14 percent to 12 percent.

Likewise, Singson said, term borrowing rates were aligned to Treasury Bill rates.

Rates for overnight up to five days were maintained at 12 percent. For the one month, the rate was increased from 12 percent to 13.5 percent. For two months, the rate was increased from 12.25 percent to 13.75 percent. For three months, the rate was increased from 12.5 percent to 14 percent.

For six months, the rate was increased from 14 percent to 14.5 percent and for one year, the rate was increased from 14.25 percent to 15 percent.

The MB, at the same time, raised the liquidity reserves of banks from five percent to eight percent.

Bankers had earlier expressed concern about rising interest rates which they said could adversely affect economic growth.

Singson, however, assured that a one percentage point increase in liquidity reserves has a mere 0.3 percent increase in the intermediation cost of banks.

He assured that the increase is just a "temporary measure."

Because of the BSP's move to ensure that liquidity does not expand out of control, Singson expressed confidence that the government would be able to meet all the performance criteria agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 18:10)
Hmmm RJ, you consider $100 over spot too high for Saints? Have you ever looked at what happens to them vs. bullion coins in a bull market? Have you ever seen them dip BELOW $100 under spot since the last bull gold market in the 80's? You don't sell bullion coins by chance do you?? Anyway, I DID say I like Maples also eh?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 18:17)
Philippines attempt to bailout the peso.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 18:22)
LAZARUS, SPEED: Thanks. Did you notice that the are forcing the banks to buy government paper? Thats a new twist.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 18:22)

Thanks, NOMERCY for the M2 and M3 figures. The money supply has been going up at a pretty good clip lately. Is that of any signifigance?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 18:23)
Fundy, re your 15:44 on why I believe long term outlook is good for market, go back and check my 15:32. BTW, I'll be dollar cost averaging my profits of the past 8 1/2 years back INTO the market beginning at DOW 7400, and will be fully invested back in at DOW 6700, should we drop that far. ( minus what I've sheltered in home payoff and metal purchases and cash )

(Thu Aug 28 1997 18:45)
Puetz ( 16:49 ) Thankx,but I am beyond saving....many have tried....many have failed...."Things" heating up in Bosnia and the USA may regret takin on the Serbs....

(Thu Aug 28 1997 18:59)
@isolated perch
Let's are we??? oh up .60 @ 327.70 and Dollar mixed in early returns...Time fer a movie ( Local Hero ) and no, this ain't about ME....Good night Chet....Good night David...

(Thu Aug 28 1997 18:59)
Liquid Gold @ Invasion of Canada
Spud Master, further to my reply @ 15:42. We in Canada, also, have fellow
citizen's that support the Cabal Theory, yet, their attack is not against
Great Britain, but, in fact against the *imperial* powers of the USofA.

Should a Canadian, expect that the citizen's of the USofA, are in fact,
the aggressors, via, the USofA Government. Or, is the reality the actions
of aggressive Corporations, such as the Federal Reserve Bank Corporation.

June 1812, war was declared against Britain by the USofA. The immediate
aim of the USofA was to take possession of Canada while the main British
naval and military forces were tied down by war with Napoleon.

When the USofA *expansionists* came to consider the matter of taking
over Canada, they were not burdened with undue modesty. Said Mr. Eustis,
the Secretary of War: "We can take the Canadas without soldiers, we have
only to send officers into the province and the people....will rally
round our standard"

In January 1813, the Russian government had offered to mediate the
conflict between Britain and the USofA. Finally, direct negotiations got
under way in 1814; signature of *Treaty of Ghent* on December 24 1814.
Naval disarmament on the Great Lakes, British agreed in effect to
"surrender to the USofA the potential control of the lakes in the event
of War" This was the *Rush-Bagot* agreement signed April 1817.

British North America, however, was preserved. On a medal struck by Loyal
and Patriotic Society of Upper Canada, together with the words "Presented
by grateful country" and "Upper Canada preserved" there appeared the
following device: "A strait between two lakes: on the north side a
beaver-emblem of peaceful industry-that ancient cognizance of Canada;
in the background an English lion slumbering....On the south side of the
strait an American Eagle ( circling ) , checked from seizing the beaver."

This site, is Canadian, and also believe in Cabal-Conspiracies-World
Order. For, my part I believe Business is taking care of Business, no
greater, nor, more complex than that. The USofA citizen is in no better
a position then Canadian citizen. We, and the USofA, elect the wrong
persons to government. No one to blame, but those, that vote for these

Liquid Gold, UsofA needs Canada's Water, and they expect to destroy
Canada as we Canadians know our country. Quebec is the key, as it was
the key in the War of 1812. The UsofA *expansionists* agents. eh!

Helms is now chairman of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee. In the summer of 1995, his man, Michael Murphy, helped put the right-wing Harris government into power in Ontario. In the autumn of 1995, a second referendum on Quebec separation was arranged by Jacques Parizeau. Lise was his political advisor. Canadians again voted to remain Canadians, but just barely. We will soon have a third referendum on separation.
Unfortunately, the Quebec slogan, "Je me souviens", does not include any of this history of US espionage. It is still taboo and very widely unseen.

"UNSEEN ESPIONAGE IN CANADA" Can one believe this material.?
As a Canadian, Must I believe, that the USofA citizen, is behind this?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:01)
INGER MARKET FORECAST - Crash Alert 27 august 1997
"Hail Mary Pass" rebound from first low expected in vicinity of Dow 7665 ... after which we would proceed to further downside targets of Dow 7200, with possibilities of 5700-6400:

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:03)
STRAD MASTER: Agree with your 12:17 and as I said, hope you are right. Do I sense some mellowing already? Perhaps. And we certainly can use more of the other side. Look forward to hearing you Sunday on KUSC. Interesting combination of instruments. If my lips were in shape would bring my trumpet and join you ;- )

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:10)
To all
Looks like little Johny hepcat is back as LurkingGbug!

Strad Master
(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:12)
Not convinced!
LURKERgBUG: I don't find your thinking on why a market decline ( The jury is out on a 'crash' vs a protracted decline ) entirely convincing. I'll try to post my reasons later when I have more time. Nevertheless, you are a funny guy and a gutsy one, too.
You are just as CERTAIN of your position as Mr. Puetz is of his. Unfortunately, for me, every time I've been that certain about the direction of the market, I've gotten creamed. It will be interesting to see who is right. Dollar averaging back to the long side while the market goes down would take a lot more courage than I've got. Just in case you're wrong, I'm glad that you've paid off your mortgage. If all else fails, at least you've got a home. God bless you.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:13)
@Showing HumilityreGoldCoins
OK RJ, let it not be said that I never admit when I'm wrong ( which is so increidbly rare that I can't remeber the last time! ) I hadn't checked the latest premiums on "Saints" for awhile ( Cause I havn't bought mine yet..! ) and it turns out that the latest "Bluesheet" prices are $401-$415 for MS61, $410-$417 for MS62, $420-$440 MS63, and $510-$515 MS64.... I REALLY like the MS 63's at these prices. A real bargain. ( Keep in mind these are wholesale prices folks )

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:14)
Steve Puetz
Steve - your'e not including gold ( stocks ) when you advise the sale of stocks are you?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:15)
@Ted and Bosnia
Well, well, and here we are getting out troops into another impossible
situation just because we needed to improve Bill's "peace keeper image"
Serbs with rocks and sticks force the US troops to retreat. This will
really improve the image of our superior military

The American troops arrived in Brcko at 3.15 a.m. ( 0115 GMT ) with at
least half a dozen Bradley fighting vehicles.
Hundreds of Bosnian Serb hardliners pelted U.S. peacekeeping troops with
rocks, forcing them to retreat from a police station in Brcko on Thursday
as a power struggle among Bosnian Serbs intensified.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:19)
Mexico: Roadbuilder defaults on payment


By Daniel Dombey in Mexico City

Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo ( GMD ) , one of Mexico's largest
construction companies, yesterday faced the threat of bankruptcy after
defaulting on a $10.4m interest payment on an outstanding eurobond.

It was one of Mexico's biggest corporate defaults since the peso crisis of

GMD's failure to meet payments on the $250m eurobond followed a
$7.6bn government plan to rescue the country's failing toll roads, a scheme
that obliges construction companies to write off billions of dollars of
investment in the roads.

GMD also announced it would seek to renegotiate $256m of debt with
Mexican banks and would sack 80 per cent of its workforce.

The GMD crisis is the most spectacular corporate backlash to date from
the 1980's toll road scheme, introduced to attract private investment to
infrastructure projects. The scheme has been plagued by poor financing,
low traffic flows and ballooning construction costs. Today most of the toll
roads are empty and poorly maintained.

GMD's shares were suspended on the Mexican stock exchange yesterday
after falling 25 per cent the previous day. Shares in Mexico's two other big
road construction companies, ICA and Tribasa, also suffered and were
down by 2 per cent and 5 per cent respectively midway through trading

ICA and Tribasa are not thought to run any risk of insolvency as roads
represent a minority of their assets. They are expected to benefit from the
government scheme.

Under the rescue scheme, announced last week, the Mexican government
will assume some 60bn pesos ( $7.6bn ) of debt owed by 23 of the toll
roads and take possession of the roads.

The construction companies that built the roads will have to write off their
equity investment in the failed projects. But they will receive 22.3bn pesos
in government bonds in recompense for unpaid fees owed to them by the
road operators. Most of the rest of the debt taken on by the government is
due to commercial banks.

The government hopes to recoup 40.8bn pesos in income from tolls,
although the construction companies will operate the roads on the state's
behalf for at least the next two years.

GDM is thought to have a struggle on its hands to avoid bankruptcy.
Private toll road projects represented three-quarters of its assets.

The company calculates that it will have to write off 7.5bn pesos in road
investments, but will receive only 2.5bn pesos in government bonds. It will
thus have to register a charge of more than 5bn pesos.

"We are only getting back 33 per cent of our total road investment of
$934m. We think we deserve $130m more," said David Rangel, chief
financial officer.

"We think we will make it if we are given time and understanding. The
company's owners will almost certainly contribute more capital. I do not
think people will be interested in seeing GMD go belly up."

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:19)
The blue Chips lead. Trouble ahead. Nothing could look worse than gold but then a new bull wants the fewest investor's on board. If this is a truism Gold gets an A+. Lack of bearish sentiment on stks is ominous. All believe a dip is buying opportunity. Global Economy in financial debt derivitive quagmire. Some govt figures look good/ kinda like saying a patient's fever has gone down and he/she looks good when they have cancer. This many times happens just before the end. The physical and psychological are very related. Program trading Chemo not having good effect on marts.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:30)
Duncan: Gold stocks fell sharply ( with the rest of the market ) during the crashes of 1929, 1937, and 1987. I would mostly avoid gold shares for now -- preferring gold and silver coins instead. Gold shares would be a great buy after the crash. Save your powder for then.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:34)
I'm still wondering about your probability number for crash scenario monsieur Puetz. ( in next 5 to 8 weeks, assuming no DOW break above 8050 )

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:35)
Hey guys: all of this talk about CB sales over the next two years seems
to overlook one thing ( correct me if I'm wrong ) -- when the currencies
start to slide out of control, the CBs will want gold in the vault also.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:35)
"Only a fool says that he had never been wrong, and people laugh around him" - Winston Churchill

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:36)
Charts - Dec Silver Hourly updated from posting of a few days ago.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:40)
Hmmm...........Not sure why there is a question Mark.

Curious Lurker
(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:42)
Unable to read your silver chart. Can you post a regular chart, or tell us how to translate what you have posted.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:44)
re: All the 'CB sales' talk .....
With the early July 'dump' by Australia CB,
the Big Boys are once again laughing all over them selves at how easily
"the masses" are 'hood-winked' -- hook, line, and sinker. Manipulation is the name of the game; always has been, always will be; as long as there are 'millions of minions with money', still willing to be

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:44)
Donald this is an excellent URL
Here's the Financial Story
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas latest directive yesterday ordered banks to park eight
percent of their deposits in debt securities it issues, up from five percent. That will reduce
by P30.9 billion the amount they can lend out, and cut into their interest income.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:44)
Re your latest, thanks again Strad for kind words. My only comment is that I am not certain of anything ( but death and taxes! ) however, my best guess is that we have a long term bull ahead in stocks after a few weeks of pull back are finished. One thing I AM certain of though, Putzke is definitely wrong about a genuine crash! ( Store that shoe polish for a future decade Puetz! Still waiting for your "probability" number on the coming crash of 97 )

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:46)
Thoughts of Sakakibara


Among the questions raised by the Asian currency crisis was who should
co-ordinate the response. How, in particular, should responsibility be
divided between global and regional actors and where should Japan fit in?
To these questions Mr Eisuke Sakakibara, Japan's newly appointed
vice-minister of finance for international affairs, gives sensible answers.

His country has been reluctant to seize the leadership role that, for better
or worse, comes so naturally to the US within the Americas. The lingering
legacy of the second world war, the discomfort Tokyo feels over being in
the limelight and the rivalries at work in the region all inhibit its actions.

Yet, whatever the reasons for Japan's decision to work through the
International Monetary Fund in mounting the US $16bn loan package for
Thailand, it was right to do so. Only the IMF has the expertise. Moreover,
as Mr Sakakibara says, the neutral IMF can alone impose financial
discipline. The alternative to an IMF-led package with conditionality would
have been a regional one without it.

Japan's refusal to act without IMF involvement ensured conditionality,
while saving Thailand's face. This made it the ideal "Asian" solution. Japan
must now continue to stand behind the IMF in the tussles that may well lie

For all the wisdom of this decision to let a global institution lead the
response to a regional crisis, questions about monetary co-operation
remain. Two are particularly important.

First, the experience of Thailand and its neighbours casts the spotlight on
exchange-rate regimes. Several Asian countries, including Thailand,
pegged their currencies to the dollar. With almost half of the region's trade
internal to it, this no longer makes sense for most. But simply shifting the
peg from the dollar to the yen would be no improvement. Thorough
discussion of how best to manage Asian currencies is essential, with Japan
playing a central, though not dominant, role in the deliberations.

Second, co-operation among Asian central banks needs to be further
developed. The Bank for International Settlements cannot perform that
function, while the existing grouping of Asian central bankers still lacks a
permanent institutional structure. The case for creating a secretariat is
strong. It could help its mebers deal with regional challenges, without
precluding global discussions, when needed, within the BIS.

In all this Japan must play a pivotal role. Its government is also inevitably
involved in guiding the behaviour of Thailand's Japanese creditors. But its
most important job remains making Japan an open economy pulled along
by domestic demand. Effective regional influence, like charity, begins at

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:48)
just reported on CNN bus news. More BEARS on Wall St. at the moment than BULLS. Any good cotrarian knows that this is NOT a sign of an eminint crash, quite the opposite in fact. ( Tempted to get back in but waiting, your Lurking pal Gbug )

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:54)
Hey Steve, don't call me HepCat, Son of Hepcat, or Hepcat's smarter brother. Just refer to me as the "Creator" or "VGER" from now on. ( Humble as always....LGB )

Bill Buckler
(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:55)
The 3 point reversal Point&Figure chart of $US Gold is remarkable. The wilder the action all around it, the tighter it gets. I have updated
my $A - $US Gold comparison at

Apart from markets going into free fall all around it, the problem for the U.S. stock market is the threat to the main idea that has sustained it ever since 1987. That's the "buy on dips, the market always goes higher" attitude. Remember, after the Dow's 247 point slide on August 15, the subsequent three days of trading saw three consecutive 100+ point upmoves. The Dow has now given all of that back.

If the Dow keeps heading south from here, it will set a very bad precedent. For the first time in living memory, the "buy on dips" crowd will be out of pocket - after a rally. Even if this is only a temporary phenomenon, it will weigh on their minds the next time we get a "dip". If this proves to be THE "dip", well then I think that we are in for a replay of what happened to Japan in 1990-92.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:57)
@LurkingGbug and our argument due to misunderstanding
LurkingGbug: Only this morning I realized what was the main source of
our argument on your 401K investment. When you said 100% return you
meant total cumulative return in three years right? I was arguing
average annual return.
You dont get any argument from me on advantages of the 401K investment
vehicle. I have my money in it ( as a matter of fact doing much better
that in your case due to 120% company contribution ) . However, there are
negatives - the biggest one being that 401K investment inflated the
market bubble out of touch from underlying economic reality. At the same
time, age distribution of investors is heavily tilted toward baby boomers
which will impact market at the withdrawal time.

My strategy ( contrary to yours ) is to bet on growth of the gold stocks
during this decline and even more during recovery phase of stock market.

Remember, gold mutual funds outperformed regular equities during this
phase. Just go and look at lets say Fidelity Magelan and Fidelity Select
Precious Metals. In 1987 and 1993 FSPMX way outperformed Magelan. ( e.g.
111% return in 1993 ) . Timing is everything in this market and markets
move in contrary cycles. Why to play just one side of it?
BTW, my believe is that the decline will drag ( with some recovery
followed by additional downturns and prolonged bear market )
through the year 2000 due to Y2K problem.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 19:59)
Thailand -IMF loan is not enough! short at least 10BL.
And most will, with the help of the Japanese authorities. But that
still leaves a hole of some US$10 billion to US$15 billion. In the
worst case, if other lenders don't extend, we are talking debt
rescheduling or default. And we haven't even ventured to talk
about mounting political tensions.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:01)
NOMERCY: The Manila paper has been changed to Friday morning edition. We got the story from The Star also. The Philippine market has nothing to worry about. The 401K money will be there on Sept. 1st.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:06)
Nikkei down 202 on the open.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:12)
Nikkei dropping like a rock
Donald, in a few minutes it's down 267 point. Oz and NZ follows with
smaller drop but also continue to decline

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:18)
Why Japan's 'golden age' is unrepeatable


From Mr Russell Jones


Gillian Tett's article on the Japanese economy is
thought-provoking but, I fear, less than fully
balanced ( "Japan's stormy weather", August 22 ) .

Perhaps the first point to make is that Japan's
"golden age" is over. To expect the economy to repeat its performance of
the 1980s and before is hopelessly optimistic. Given demographics,
structural rigidities and the weaknesses in the banking sector, potential
growth is now around 2 per cent a year. Deregulation will provide some
support to the economy's underlying capacity to expand, but the dynamics
of population ageing suggest that aggregate performance will at best

As for short-term cyclical developments, the key consideration relates to
the mechanics of recessions. Typically, these originate from an exogenous
shock. This may be a supply shock; it may be related to external demand;
it may be a function of exchange rate developments, or the consequence of
a change in macro-economic policy.

The global environment is the most satisfactory since 1989, with the only
contemporary supply shock a positive technology-related one. At the same
time, the yen's fall of recent years has left Japan highly competitive, while
domestic interest rates are, as your correspondent suggests, at historical

To believe that Japan is entering another entrenched downturn, one must
believe therefore that the consolidative re-orientation of fiscal policy is
sufficiently powerful in itself to counterbalance these positive factors and
cause a recession. This I doubt. The experience of numerous economies
over recent years is that, provided monetary conditions are loose enough
and external demand buoyant enough, substantial fiscal adjustments can be
absorbed, especially when, as in Japan, the change in budgetary policy
will bring the public finances back on to a more sustainable footing.

Of course, the risk remains that Japan may prove an exception to this rule.
More likely, however, the economy will soon rebound and the recovery
process will prove sustainable, albeit at a more modest pace than we are
accustomed to see, and with external demand providing much of the
positive momentum. Surely, though, export-led growth is better than no
growth at all?

Russell Jones,
chief economist,
Lehman Brothers Japan,
Ark Mori Building,
12-32 Akasaka 1 Chome,
Tokyo 107, Japan

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:20)
Oh come now Miro, Y2K affecting the market? We've solved a few billion problems a lot tougher than THAT one in the past few decades. Y2K problem is just one more media hyped will have about the same impact as throwing a pebble in the Ocean has on the tides.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:21)
( Did this story make the US news? I sure missed it. )
Defectors: N Korean diplomat given US


By Mark Suzman in Washington and Jason Neely in Seoul

The US State Department confirmed yesterday that Jang Sung-gil, North
Korea's ambassador to Egypt, his wife, and his brother, Jang Sung-ho, a
North Korean trade official in Paris, had sought and been granted asylum
in the US.

James Rubin, State Department spokesman, said that Mr Jang was the
highest ranking North Korean official ever to defect to the US, but refused
to provide further information, saying it could put the safety of the
defectors and their families at risk.

The defections, which were apparently co-ordinated, come at a
particularly sensitive time in US-North Korean relations, with the two
countries due to begin talks on Pyongyang's international missile sales in
New York later today. The US and North Korea are also scheduled to
meet with South Korea and China in Europe next month for peace talks
about the future of the divided peninsula.

However, Mr Rubin said that he expected both rounds of talks to proceed
as scheduled and did not see the defections as symptomatic of political
disarray in the communist state.

"We don't think this will have any effect [on the talks]," he said. "Nor do
we see it as related to any collapse of the [North Korean] leadership or
anything of that nature."

Mr Rubin emphasised that the US remained deeply concerned about the
issue of missile proliferation. However he refused to confirm reports that
the two men have supplied important information about North Korea's
missile sales in the Middle East, particularly to Iran and Syria, saying that
such speculation was "of a character we normally don't discuss".

Egyptian government officials said Mr Jang had gone missing at the
weekend, and had apparently left the country using a false name and travel
documents. North Korea is reportedly preparing to try him in absentia for
abandoning his duties.

South Korean newspaper reports yesterday suggested Mr Jang may have
decided to defect as his term in Cairo was due to end in November. They
said his son defected to Canada last year while Mr Jang himself is believed
to have been under fire for failing to persuade Egypt to supply large
amounts of food aid to meet North Korean shortages.

More than 100 North Koreans have fled to South Korea in recent years.
But these are the first defections by senior diplomats.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:21)
Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - VI (August 25, 1997)
Financial Tsunami Looming in Land of the Setting Sun. Oracle provides ample evidence Japans Financial Scandals & Crisis will drive US stocks and dollar down, rates & GOLD UP:

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:23)
HongKong- Redemptions? uhhmmm!
Hong Kong equities felt the full force of the region's
financial crisis yesterday as brokers said funds
might be starting to liquidate positions to meet

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:26)
Hang Seng down 657.85 ( ouch! )

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:29)
S. Korea
South Korean stocks dropped yesterday, driving
the main index to its lowest in more than three
months, following a report commercial banks would
scrap a plan to prop up failing companies.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:33)
Mozambique: Country 'needs $1.5bn debt


By Robert Chote, Economics Editor

Mozambique should be granted debt relief worth up to $1.5bn to reduce
the burden of its external borrowings to sustainable levels, according to
confidential proposals drawn up by the World Bank and International
Monetary Fund.

The assistance programme would be the largest considered so far under
the "highly indebted poor country initiative", which is being co-ordinated by
the two Washington-based institutions. Mozambique is one of the poorest
countries in the world, with national income of $90 ( 56 ) per head in

Both the IMF and World Bank have commended the way economic
reforms were implemented as the country's devastating 15-year civil war
drew to a close.

"Economic liberalisation, together with substantial support from the
international community, has contributed to strong economic growth,
averaging 6.7 per cent annually, albeit from a very low base," the proposal
argues. It assumes the non-energy sector of the economy will post 5 per
cent growth a year on average until 2005.

The proposal will be discussed by the executive directors of the bank and
the IMF early next month. The institutions believe the relief should be
delivered at a "completion point" in mid-1999, although some directors are
believed to favour delay until mid-2000.

The proposal argues that Mozambique could sustain a ratio of debt
( measured in net present value terms ) to exports of 200 to 220 per cent.
This implies debt relief worth between $1.2bn and $1.5bn for a mid-1999
completion point or between $1.1bn and $1.4bn for a mid-2000
completion point.

"If the IMF and World Bank are serious about reducing debt to
sustainable levels, they will need to go below the 200-220 per cent
debt-to-export threshold proposed for Mozambique," argues Veena
Siddarth, of Oxfam International, the aid agency. Oxfam favours a
completion point in September 1998 and a 150 per cent debt-to-export

Agreeing a debt relief package for Mozambique will be made more difficult
by the high proportion owed to bilateral government creditors rather than
multilateral institutions.

The Paris Club of bilateral creditors is prepared to offer 80 per cent debt
relief under the initiative, but would have to go further than this if the
burden of debt relief for Mozambique were to be shared equitably
between its creditors.

At the end of this year the net present value of Mozambique's external debt
is expected to be $3.3bn, or 709 per cent of annual exports.

Of this, $859m will be owed to multilateral institutions ( principally the
World Bank ) , $1.9bn to the Paris Club countries, $439m to other bilateral
government creditors and $49m to commercial creditors.

Without the extra debt relief available under the initiative, IMF and World
Bank staff estimate that Mozambique's debt-to-export ratio would still be
above 400 per cent in 1999 and above 250 per cent in 2005.

The outlook for its debt burden is also vulnerable to weather-related falls in
commodity exports, to changes in the terms of its loans and to delays in
resuming electricity and gas exports.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:38)
Silver Bears Watching (are silver bulls?)
Silver's attempt today to approach and engage the 4.85 level is very important. Today's "failure" may be paving the way for tommorrow's success. This was either a clearance of overhead preparatory to a leg up through 4.85, or a reversal prior to a pitiful retreat. Let me reiterate: Silver breaking through 4.85 will indicate a breakout from the containing downtrend in silver prices traced by connecting the momentous '83 and '87 tops. This would be highly significant. All goldbugs should watch silver closely now. If there is an overall failure here, we could see a bottom approaching 4.09. ( The following caveat is added in light of LurkingGBug's concern for investors who may be significantly underage ( 20-29 years old ) or inexperienced ( never had their asses kicked good by a market ) .

NOTE: The thoughts and analyses expressed in this post are speculation. The reader must choose how much of the material presented herein should be used to apply to his/her own personal market activities. Any comments, predictions, or speculations concerning companies, investments, or investment markets are for research and educational purposes and may be subject to error. Past patterns and occurences in financial markets, whether in relation to astrology or any other form of analysis or strategy, may not always be reliable indicators of future activity. Readers are advised of the potential risk of capital loss in any uninsured investment, including stocks, bonds, gold bullion, futures, and other investment vehicles. Even paper money issued by lawfully constituted governments, including the Treasury of the United States of America, carries no guarantee that its purchasing power and relative value will remain intact and not erode over time. Information contained in this post may have been gathered from many sources, believed to be reliable, but no guarantee can be made as to the accuracy of such information. The issuer of this post is not a dealer or broker in investments, neither stocks, bonds, gold, or other investments. The issuer of this post may have a position in the securities, commodities, or investments mentioned. The issuer of this post presents the material herein as proprietary opinion and research and is not acting in any investment advisory capacity. Readers are advised to consult with their own personal or corporate sources of financial or market counsel. All choices made by readers of this post based on the information contained herein are the responsibility of the reader. It is the right of every person in a free society to use the information presented herein as they best see fit.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:40)
@...6pak and U.S. spies in Canada
Good article but makes you wonder why the U.S. would waste money spying on Canada. The U.S. already owns and controls most of Canada's industrial jewels. Canada exports 80% of its goods to the U.S. and, as such, we are destined to sink or swim off the U.S. economy. I notice that the spy article didn't say how many Canadian spies ( Intelligence operatives ) worked in the U.S. Given that about 1 million Canucks live in the U.S. ( about 3.5% of the Canada's population of 30 Million ) one wonders if any of these folk are passive spys. Some Americans would argue that Hockey is a front ( no offence Front ) to cover-up an invasion by the 1st Canadian Airborne ( remeber what the 2nd Airborne did in Somalia ? ) when the big whistle is blown.

Anyways, lets not rock the boat eh. We got guys like TED helping to pay taxes to take care of those Gypsy Kings deplaning in Toronto by the hour.

My Dear American friends WE NEED YOU to help pay the tucking taxes please invade and take up residence and wave the stars and stripes and do want ever you want and pay taxes BUT don't... repeat... DON'T mess around with our GAME or our BEER - DIG ?! That's all Candians really care about anyways, eh ?


(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:40)
LurkingGbug on Y2K
LurkingGbug: I am not going to bore this forum with Y2K - we already had
a bunch of discussions on it. Let me say just one thing - anybody who
treats Y2K lightly knows very little about computers and our dependency
on it. Yeah, like a rock thrown into ocean but that rock is tied around
the company neck ( and mine too ) I should know, I work on it for a couple
of years already, dealing with multiple companies and gov. agencies.
The progress across the country is pitiful. The main reason being that
people on the top think - no big deal, we solved many of such problems
before, no reason to hurry. As I said I've been around Y2K for close
to two years. Two years ago we had a chance -it is slowly but surely
slipping away. Bill Gates won't get us out of this one ;- )

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:42)
hey Mike, I wouldn't give YOU a hard time, you're not trying to sell Newsletters or books to naive suckers for a living! Besides, I like your silver analysis and it has more basis to it than "Solar Eclipses" and such.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:42)
South Africa: Central bank snubs IMF on
rand defence


By Mark Ashurst in Johannesburg

The South African Reserve Bank yesterday rejected advice from the
International Monetary Fund urging it to withdraw from international
currency markets and moderate its defence of the rand.

"We are not going to be forced into decisions by the IMF. They also make
mistakes," said Chris Stals, governor of the Reserve Bank. The bank was
not prepared to rely on fiscal policy, and in particular its control of interest
rates, to regulate fluctuations in the currency.

"If we force the ( forward cover ) book down, we will have to raise interest
rates. We are not prepared to do that at all costs," Mr Stals said in
Pretoria yesterday.

Last year, the rand lost 21 per cent of its value against a basket of foreign
currencies, and at its weakest point declined by 28 per cent against the

The rand recovered between November and March, but has experienced
renewed volatility in recent months as Mr Stals waged a war of attrition
against currency speculators.

The bank shared the IMF's long-term objective of reducing the bank's role
in the forward currency market, said Mr Stals. But it would continue to
emulate "just about every emerging country" by maintaining "some kind of
hedging policy to limit exposure" to foreign currencies.

His comments will encourage hopes of an interest rate cut in the third
quarter, following the release of better than expected second quarter
economic data this week.

In his annual address to shareholders, Mr Stals said the deficit on the
current account had declined from R13bn ( $2.7bn ) a year ago to R3.5bn
in the second quarter.

Foreign capital inflows had recovered from R585m in the first three
quarters of last year to R16.7bn in the first half of 1997.

The IMF was nervous about the prospect of a rate cut, and urged the
bank to review its exposure in the forward currency markets. It said the
current total exposure of about $18bn "raised uncertainties in the foreign
exchange markets" and risked heavy losses.

In a report sent to Pretoria this week, after its annual economic study of
South Africa was completed last month, the IMF sought "a clear signal that
intervention would no longer form a central part of the policy response to
possible future pressures in foreign exchange markets".

Mike Sheller
(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:43)
Looking out my back door...
TED: How's the weather up there? It's still damp & cloudy here. Looks like more rain to me.

NOTE: The thoughts and analyses expressed in this post are speculation. The reader must choose how much of the material presented herein should be used to apply to his/her own personal market activities. Any comments, predictions, or speculations concerning companies, investments, or investment markets are for research and educational purposes and may be subject to error. Past patterns and occurences in financial markets, whether in relation to astrology or any other form of analysis or strategy, may not always be reliable indicators of future activity. Readers are advised of the potential risk of capital loss in any uninsured investment, including stocks, bonds, gold bullion, futures, and other investment vehicles. Even paper money issued by lawfully constituted governments, including the Treasury of the United States of America, carries no guarantee that its purchasing power and relative value will remain intact and not erode over time. Information contained in this post may have been gathered from many sources, believed to be reliable, but no guarantee can be made as to the accuracy of such information. The issuer of this post is not a dealer or broker in investments, neither stocks, bonds, gold, or other investments. The issuer of this post may have a position in the securities, commodities, or investments mentioned. The issuer of this post presents the material herein as proprietary opinion and research and is not acting in any investment advisory capacity. Readers are advised to consult with their own personal or corporate sources of financial or market counsel. All choices made by readers of this post based on the information contained herein are the responsibility of the reader. It is the right of every person in a free society to use the information presented herein as they best see fit.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:44)
Russia-China arms sales - friendship strenthened
Russia: Ties with China strengthened by
$100m arms deal


By Chrystia Freeland in Moscow

Russia's burgeoning friendship with China was strengthened yesterday by
the visit of a senior Chinese general who concluded a multi-million dollar
arms deal with his Moscow hosts.

In recent months, the Kremlin, dismayed by its failure to be accepted as a
full member of the western club of developed nations, has vigorously
cultivated ties with the Middle East and Asia.

A growing relationship with China has been the centrepiece of Russia's
new eastern emphasis. Jiang Zemin, China's president, visited Moscow in
April. Boris Yeltsin, the Russian president, plans to travel to China this

"Relations between Russia and China are positive as never before," Viktor
Chernomyrdin, the Russian prime minister, said during his meeting with
Gen Liu Huaquing.

Russian news agencies said that during his visit to Russia Gen Liu, a
member of the powerful committee of the Chinese politburo, had signed a
contract with Rosvoruzheniye, Russia's recently revamped arms
organisation, for the delivery of armaments worth more than $100m.

The deal is part of the swiftly growing weapons trade between Moscow
and Beijing. Russia has sold some $1bn worth of weapons to China over
the past year, accounting for about 30 per cent of its booming arms

During their meeting yesterday, Mr Chernomyrdin and Gen Liu discussed
further military co-operation, including deliveries of spare parts for Russian
military aircraft already purchased by the Chinese, and the transfer of
Russian licences that would allow China to build the Sukhoi Su-27 fighter

Gen Liu, whose visit to Russia is scheduled to last for 10 days, is expected
to visit military factories across the country, travelling to the Urals capital of
Yekaterinburg, the Siberian academic centre of Novosibirsk and the far
eastern city of Khabarovsk.

Russia continues to place high value on its ties with the US and Europe,
and attached great importance to its almost total inclusion in the summit
meeting this summer of the Group of Seven industrialised nations. But the
Kremlin is increasingly seeking ways to counterbalance the west.

Growing ties with Moscow offer the same enticement for China, whose
president, Mr Jiang, told the Russian leadership during his spring visit that
together the two countries could help prevent the emergence of a single
"hegemonic" world power - a remark observers believed was aimed at the
US. However, Russian-Chinese relations are troubled by continued friction
along their border.

 Copyright the Financial Times Limited 1997
"FT" and "Financial Times" are trademarks of The Financial Times Limited.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:47)
BOB: If you Canadians decide to attack the US a good strategy would be to bring your beavers with you. We will surrender willingly.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:48)
Donald and Carl ( @ earlier ) : The problem of "tamper proof" currencies can only be approached by simultaneously circumscribing the powers of government. Without contracting its size and power, every problem that faces us becomes intractable. It must be brought down to the point where news organizations no longer find it useful to maintain a 'Washington Bureau'. Unfortunately, there is little enthusiasm for limbing the octupus so, we'll continue to muddle along.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:51)
MIKE SHELLER: I am looking at an analysis from someone else on silver who feels that 459.50 is a critical support level. Comment?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:51)
South America
Mexico bolsa down 2.51% ( 5th session in a row )
Brazil 3.86%

Mike Sheller
(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:51)
aw shucks
LURKING GOLDBUG: But I'm an astrologer. Doesn't that fit in with your classification for Charlatan, along with chartists and Elliott Wavers? ( :- ) ) I think you're a good sport and you'll be here at Kitco a long time. I never saw you as a hepcat. You are far too civil. Hepcat was a disturbed person, but I for one take my hat off to anyone who can be as accurate in predicting as he. I think predicting is an ancient, noble, and time honored activity. Sometimes a little mind warp comes with being a good predictor. Hepcat was probably a genius. He just pissed everyone off, is all. Please go a bit easier on some of us. I think what Kitcoites are saying is that they want to hear your views on the markets rather than your views on other posters. I think you're needed here, and you will be an asset to us all over time. Now grab my ankles and keep me from floating ...away!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:53)
@....Beavers ? Good idea.
Donald: We both have resident beavers. Why don't we attack each other and then trade / settle for Beavers from each kuntry ? Fair, eh ?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:55)
Mexico -peso
`The moment the market reckons that the currency is expensive, they will sell it and at that moment the peso will continue
finding its new equilibrium level,'' he said after a meeting of Mexican and Venezuelan businessmen.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Aug 28 1997 20:56)
exhausted from catching up
This was one of the great days at Kitco. STRAD: and all short skirt watchers - I don't need no stinking Bob Prechter to tell me to watch for short skirts! RON: For your clients who want consultations on the meaning of life and the universe, call me. It's my specialty. NO ONE does it better. But they better not be candy-asses when it comes to what I have to tell them. MARKUS: Rampant money supply growth began in the closing months of the bUsh administration. I do NOT like Clinton, but I can't blame him for EVERYTHING ( much as I'd like to ) .

(Thu Aug 28 1997 21:04)
Asian markets
Silver up $.25 Dec gold up .$.40
Asian markets -

Mike Sheller
(Thu Aug 28 1997 21:06)
re Silver
DONALD: re 4.59 silver as critical support. Perhaps short term, but I'm trying to see the big picture. Big time critical support, as I see it, is the rising support line connecting the 1972 Bull market liftoff, and the double bottom of 90-93 in silver. This support comes in at around 4.09 today. Give or take a few cents of course, due to time/space aberration on a chart of this long a time window. I can see this as an ultimate bottom for silver if it fails mightily here. Or as a testing bottom just above it in '98 if there's a rally and then a return move. A break below 4.09 in '97, to me, would indicate a terrible deflation of unexpected proportions. A true commodity price collapse that would be too grim to contemplate. I myself am looking for renewed inflation down the road, but am open for anything. A breakout above 4.85 would be very bullish, even if a return move took us back to test recent lows later on.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Aug 28 1997 21:09)
DONALD: NO MERCY's post mentions silver up .25. I was not aware of trading at this hour, but this fits in with the observation. Verification anyone? ( no offense No Mercy ) . Perhaps the big breakout is underway now.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 21:16)

Just a quickie to say thanks for listening. This system, if you can keep it this way, is perfect for my style of usage. Just need a squelch for Selby and a search for Tort and the whole world will be happy I guess. Thanks again.


(Thu Aug 28 1997 21:17)

Your chart came thru for me..


(Thu Aug 28 1997 21:23)
Mike Sheller
..silver update

(Thu Aug 28 1997 21:25)
August equity inflows
Trim Tabs estimated equity inflows for the month of August, based on the first 21 days of the
month, at $9.9 billion vs. estimated inflows of $18.6 billion in July and estimated inflows of $23.0
billion reported by the ICI in July.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 21:26)
@...Inflation watch
Looks like July's inflation story was partly kited ( by gas prices0 to August. Things are shaping up for a gold recovery.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 21:37)
Interesting summary of the days trading in the equities markets, worth a read.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 21:46)
Why is it that, when a market falls, it's always due to, "Profit taking." Is this supposed to mean that someone else took my profits? :- ) )

One other old point; Gold is priced in Dollars. So other countries must be seeing the price of gold rise in their currencies while we sit here and wonder why gold does nothing. I think, as a result of this phenomenon, there is no interest in the gold mining shares. Of course, today was something of an exception in certain mining stocks. Getchell Gold ( GGO ) had much higher volume than usual. I have to admitt, the reason this stock sank today was because of me, I bought some.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 21:50)
Japan down 330 ( 1.79% ) , Singapore down 100 ( 5.45% ) Hong Kong is showing zeros on Yahoo. Did they shut it down? OZ down 49

(Thu Aug 28 1997 21:50)
Tomorrows' data could add some more fuel to the inflation fears. Weekly caledar of data releases.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 21:54)
..... Gbug .....

Why would you pay over $400 for one once of gold that is currently selling for $325?? There are some who think gold is even overpriced at $325. The premium you pay is money thrown away. You keep talking about how pretty they are, sounds to me you are more of a coin collector than an investor in gold. As for Mr. Puetz, he will keep calling for the sky to fall until it does or he dies, whichever comes first. You make some good points, but you and he will never agree. You are engaged in todays market, Puetz in obsessed with one possible future market, which apparently blinds him to the profits available today. Presenting facts is of no use. I have read these pronouncements for many months, when each one fails, another is offered. The net effect is a level of accuracy twice shy of a stopped clock. One day, there will be a big correction in the market, ilk of genus Puetz will then stand on tippy toe and prance and sing their own praises while conveniently forgeting their many bogus pronouncements. Puetz would cast me in a similar light. I guess the difference can be found in who is making $ today. Sounds to me, you are doing quite well. Continue on your course and let the Puetzes have their fear. Count up the $ at the end, I predict one will be wealthier and successful, the other will still be afraid.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 21:56)
Lurking Gbug: Right now, there a 70% chance of a crash. On a close below 7500 ( within the next 4 days ) , the odds of a crash jump to 95% certain.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 21:56)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )


(Thu Aug 28 1997 21:58)
..... Lurker # ??? .....

This place is getting lousey with lurkers. Im very confused. This is addressed to Lurker @ 17:47:

If ever a futures contract traded on a metal or coin, it is reportable. All forms of bullion, Gold LF + KR, 90% and 40% silver coins are reportable, all else is not. I must stress that there are no reporting requirements when you buy the coins, unless you pay cash for 10K or more. The reporting requirement is for when you sell the coins. Whoever you sell to is required to report the sale to the IRS. I do not advocate the avoidance of any taxes, I do view this reporting requirement an unwelcome intrusion into the private affairs of private citizens. Given my druthers, I will choose the more discrete route every time.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:01)
The Asian markets are getting hammered again tonight. All stock market crashes have been global in nature. The panic in a broad number of markets in Latin America, Europe, and Asia fits the pattern of a crash. That's just one more feather in the hat of the crash-and-burn bears.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:02)
Puetz, I'm a little hard of hearing, WHAT did you say that crash probability was again? "Silence is Gooolden...though my eyes still seeee..silence is Gooolden Gooolden......."

(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:08)
Interesting headline from DBC, apparently this is the first time that the NYSE collars were triggered four times in one day.

Another first, of sorts. This is the frst time in a while, that I can recall that silver and gold have been up at night on EBN.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:08)
Curious Lurker - Sorry, I don't know of any other way of posting the charts, you should be able to view it in paintbrush program if you down load it. Here is what it shows. ( Dec Silver 97 ) Short term resistance at today's highs at 4.86, major support 4.45, next resistance at 5.10 approx. taken from the 1996 high on a weekly chart, Major long term resistance at 5.45 appprox. taken from the 1994 highs on a monthly chart.
On my charts a line drawn from the 1983 to 1987 highs passed thru this area in 1995 and has acted as support on the monthly chart. These are all based on continuation front month contracts.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:09)
HA! HA! I fooled you all. I just 9 years old
and I sneek on daddys PC and sned you comments.
OhOh, gotta go.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:10)
Yahoo has Hong Kong back. Down 767 ( 5.6% ) They are all a mess tonight. Mabye silver is up because all the Baht in Thailand won't buy 1 ounce of gold.

Lan Man
(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:12)
@Blue Skies...
Blue skies smilin' at me-
Nothin' but blue skies do I see-
Bluebirds singin' a song-
Nothin' but bluebirds all day long

The navy has updated the Climate Anomaly Map at:

El Nino is getting stronger everyday. Doing a comparison between the 8/03/97 map and the new one dated 8/27/97, indications are that its going to be THE big one. Estimates out west here ( and now being broadcast to the public, no less! ) in Calif are for 2-3 times normal rainfall to Dec. then 3-4 times come 1998. If I'm going to be playing Noah this winter, then I'd better get to building or buying an Ark....

(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:15)
Mexican silver and sold production reports.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:22)
S&P Globex down 2.65

(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:26)
Mike Sheller: Your sense of humor is inimitable.

While we have been watching the blue chip stocks go down and gold go sideways, energy and energy services have been booming. Does anyone analyse "Black Gold"? Is this a short boomlet or a big bull run?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:27)
Donald -- The Hang Seng just opened. It was down 749.72 or 5% at the open.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:30)
@the scene
Puetz -- Those markets are sure taking a drubbing! The creeping rot is getting bigger and stinkier. And its self-perpetuating! It'll be here soon enough in all its forms. Your timing is either right or wrong, but it doesn't change the end result.

I see spot platinum is up handily tonight. I also see gold banging its head on 328 ( Dec ) . So far, its low has been what it did at the close. Perhaps it'll continue to make a 'stealth' move up all night! I have an idea that I will 'feel' better in being long over the weekend with all the 'messes' on their way to our shores.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:33)
No folks that "kid" wasn't moi, but I expect the occasional imposter. Now then Puetz, since I see we now have a probability from you for the crash of 70%, I have a public gentleman's proposition for you. I'll wager $1,000 U.S. dollars to your $500, that said crash of 35% in DJIA does NOT occur in 1997. This proposition is highly favorable to you since you give yourself a 70% probability of being correct and I'm giving you 2 to 1 on your money. Overall you're getting an EXTREMELY favorable proposition here ( assuming you truly believe in your numbers...which I of course sincerely doubt ) . I even gave you extra time ( 12 weeks ) and I'll even back my bet if your 95% scenario occurs!! What do you say my man? Put your moola where your mouth is, for all the KITCO public to see? Think of how this could diminish the credibility and stature of doubters like myself and show the world you are in fact sincere in your beliefs! Why it would be a total humiliation if I lost such a wager to you wouldn't it? ( Yes I know, you wouldn't want to humiliate me and all, it would be poor form, and of questionable propriety, but PLEASE, I can afford it I assure you, mentally and financially ) . Personally I always back my beliefs with action. Yourself?? What do you say Puetz my man?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:35)
As I slowly pick up the pieces of my computer, I see that the NYSE closing TRIN was 2.12! This with a T-Bond rally of 7.7 basis points for a close of 6.571%.

Let's see, bonds rally and stocks tank. The Dollar slides. Gold and silver go up, down, and all around to end up no where. You have to wonder, what would cause 'investors' to really dump the Dollar?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:39)
Well, tomorrow is FRIDAY again. Recent FRIDAYS have not been kind to US stock markets. This is the FRIDAY before a long ( Labor Day ) weekend. Traditionally volumes are lighter then. But who knows.

SE Asian stock markets have been taking it on the chin lately and it hardly gets any "press" here in the US. Perhaps we are not to be distracted while smart money exits those markets for the US, "covering" for smart money leaving US markets !!!!!

Looking back to the beginning of 1997, the first phase of a bear market has already occured. The flight-to-quality, where the nifty-50 large cap stocks benefit, almost to the exclusion of the S&P 500, has already happened. The next phase is where the market moves to paper, REPRESENTING hard assets: oil, gas, grains and gold. IMHO, gold per se ( coins, bars, jewlery ) , will move up AFTER: oil, gas, grains, and gold stocks ( ABX, NEM, HM ) move up, in that order.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:41)
RJ, You're quite correct that I have collectibility in mind. The reason I like "Saints" at $100 premium is that you have a coin from the 20's with Numismatic value which goes far higher in value in a BULL gold marlet than your bullion coins do, and which ALSO will resist dropping catastrophically in the event of a devastating gold price decline because of a Numismatic floor which could well be higher than the intrinsic floor of gold. Say gold dropped to $240 for example, "Saints" would likely remain at a $100 or better premium, whereas with a astronomical RISE in gold price, Saints will go way BEYOND the $100 premium as they have done in past Bull GOLD markets. That's why I like em. Down sides? A couple. Firstly, you have to know a little about coins and have a source if you're going to buy thgem, secondly, they are slightly ( and only slightly ) less liquid than KR's ML's and AE's.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:42)
@uh oh, I'm thinking again! Put the phone down!
Eldorado -- You bring up a good point, who would be willing to be 'long' over the looooong weekend? This leaves the U.S. investors out in the cold while the rest of the world has a chance to position themselves on Sunday night/ Monday morning. Given the chaos in the Asian markets, would you really want to be short gold over the weekend? Just some thoughts you stired up in me!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:45)
@the scene
Panda -- Dumping of dollars. Given that so many countries are trying to support their currencies by selling dollars to buy their own, I'm sure there are few who want to be long in a selling climate. Much like gold. The dollar, though 'stronger' and in more demand than their own local currencies, is still viewed as a relatively safe haven, but when they HAVE to sell for the sake of their own currencies, it doesn't much matter....

(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:50)
OneMore Thing@Redundanceville
Hate to sound like Lt. Columbo RJ, but I forgot one more little thing. "Saints" also have the intangible benefit of beaty, collectibility, historical signifigance, and conversation pieceability, and not reportable unless traded in large lots. I know you aren't interested in this part, but I historical performance supports my financial reasons for owningthem also. They've consistently outperformed bullion by a wife margin in "up" markets.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 22:53)
This Asian crisis is getting interesting. I imagine that the global manipulators are getting worried about a situation that may not be able to control. Let's see, Australia helped out Thailand with the proceeds from the Gold liquidation. Could it be a futile effort, and they end up with no Gold and no money?
Im sure that the lights are burning all night at the IMF and World Bank at this time. I expect some plan or strategy to be announced by these spin doctors.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:06)
@the scene
Everyone be aware that Barts price updates seem to have stopped working. You'll have to go elsewheres for updates until its rectified.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:07)
Lurking Gbug: Before proceeding with your proposal, I would like to know who it is I have a bet with. My name and address is:

Steve Puetz
2800 Wilshire Ave.
West Lafayette, IN 47906

You can e-mail your name and address to me at, unless you want to make it public here at Kitco.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:09)
Asian markets are in full retreat. Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore are all down over 3%. S&P now down 2.55 points. DJIA projected to open more than 50 points lower tomorrow morning.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:11)
Puetzke's reply
And do I have your Gentleman's public agreement that my privacy will be maintained should I send you my E mail address, name, address, etc etc? I'm licking my chops Mr. Puetz! Bart Kitner could hold the dough for us, whaddya say?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:12)
@the scene
Everyone be aware that Barts price updates seem to have stopped working. You'll have to go elsewheres for updates until its rectified.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:12)
Tomorrow looks like it will be an interesting day. Good night all.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:14)
Oh well, I'm feeling really good. I'll make it $2,000 against your $500 Puetz. Are you on?

Lurker Gbug
(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:19)
I will wage any and all $2,000 against $500!!!
Ant takers?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:23)
There must be some real men at this site!
ANY takers?
Strad, George Cole, RJ, WW, Donald? ANYONE??????

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:26)
How about you panda? Wanna bet?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:26)
Lurking Gbug: Your $2,000 to my $500 -- the DJIA will close down 35% from its high ( the DJIA will close below 5368 ) before the end of October 1997. I agree to the wager -- provided Bart Kitner agrees to hold the money, and you send him the money within 2 weeks, and you e-mail your name and address to me. I will respect your privacy ( I will not disclose who you are ) if that is your wish. I will also send my money within 2 weeks.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:29)
You are on!!! Easy money!!! Thank you!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:31)
No more bets!!
Time is up!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:33)
I love this group, I love you gold fanatics.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:38)
************************ VIRUS ALERT *******************************
Hi everyone. I know this is not gold related, but I want to make sure everyone is able to continue those great posts.


Subject: FW: PLEASE READ!!!

This was sent to all CTIA staff today. I am sending this to all of my
internet addresses because CTIA has had virus problems in the past.

WARNING!!!!!! If you receive an e-mail titled "JOIN THE CREW" DO NOT
open it!
It will erase EVERYTHING on your hard drive! Send this letter out to
many people you can.......this is a new virus and not many people know
about it!
This information was received this morning from IBM, please share it
with anyone that might access the Internet.
If anyone receives mail entitled; PENPAL GREETINGS! please delete
it WITHOUT reading it!! This is a warning for all Internet users -
there is a dangerous virus propagating across the Internet through an
e-mail message entitled "PENPAL GREETINGS!".
This message appears to be a friendly letter asking you if you are
interested in a penpal, but by the time you read this letter, it is
late. The trojan horse" virus will have already infected the boot
of your hard drive, destroying all of the data present. It is a
self-replicating virus, and once the message is read, it will
AUTOMATICALLY forward itself to anyone who's e-mail address is present
in YOUR mailbox!
This virus will DESTROY your hard drive, and holds the potential to
DESTROY the hard drive of anyone whose mail is in your in box, and
who's mail is in their in box and so on. If this virus keeps getting
passed, it has the potential to do a great deal of DAMAGE to computer
networks worldwide!!!!
Please, delete the message entitled "PENPAL GREETINGS!" as soon as
you see it! And pass this message along to all of your friends,
relatives and the other readers of the newsgroups and mailing lists which you
are on so that they are not hurt by this dangerous virus!!!!
Please pass this along to everyone you know so this can be stopped.
There is a new virus going arround in the last couple of days!!!
DO NOT open or even look at any mail that you get that says:
"Returned or Unable to Deliver" This virus will attach itself to your computer
components and render them useless. Immediately delete any mail items
that says this. AOL has said this is a very danderous virus, and
there is NO remedy for it at this time, Please Be Careful, And forward to
all your on-line friends A.S.A.P.

Spud Master
(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:44)
real dollars
LurkerGBug & Puetz - better specify that wager as US $.

6Pak - Get a grip. The US isn't going to take over Canada. You guys have made enough of a mess vis the Quebec'ies to ensure a fractured Canada. We'll simply accept the western provinces as new states, unless they are smart enough to form Cascadia with Alaska, Oregon & Washington.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:44)

I have thrown a barb or two your way, but I admire a am who doesnt hide. A man should live in the light. You do.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:46)
@theREAL LGB herePuetz
Puetz, all those ohhhhh so clever souls are posting in my name, HOW ever, I am here, it's me, the real me, the geuine article, LGB himself, the poster of 22:33 and 23:11. My ORIGINAL wager stands, of $1,000 to $500, Bart holding the dough, and I'll send him my name and address and the check within 2 weeks what do you say? I agree to your terms of DOW below 5368 at the end of October, ( Closing DOW on 10/31/97 ) , you win the $1,500, DOW above that level, I win the $1,500. I will be happy to wager under these terms, IF....

You also forward a $500 check to Bart man concurrant with my $1,000, he cashes BOTH checks within our 2 week time frame, informs us of same,and he agrees to forward the winner, a $1,500 check on the conclusion of the bet. Agreed? Now if I can figure out how to preface my posts in a way that you'll always know it's me. A bitingly sarcastic satirical diatribe about "Gloom and Doomers" perhaps???

To all you IMPOSTERS out there, this is my offer of a genuine Gentleman's wager, my ONLY offer of a Gantleman's wager, and my FINAL offer of a Gentleman's wager. You guy's who WISH you had the Huevos to play with the big boys, kindly grow some balls make your own action under your own handles!!!!!!!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:50)
LurkingBug, say it aint so. Don't back out! Please!

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:53)
This is bad! You changed your mind?

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:56)
@the scene
Puetz -- Watch it. gBug says ON the 31st whereas you have said by the end of October. He gives you only one day for the 'price to be right'.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:56)
All talk and
no action! Stand
by your words.

(Thu Aug 28 1997 23:56)
Yes I agree RJ, transparent living is best, HOW ever, remember that I've been posting here only a VERY short time and have seen plenty of comments from folks that worry my greatly, rabidly anti free speech anti dialogue Site NAZI types, who tend to make me believe that I better protect my privacy ( and my family's ) till I have a bit better feel for who's out there. I remember what some Moron did to HepCat at this site as you recall, "outing" his personal info. without permission as "revenge" for his written comments. Truly a far more dispicable act than anything Hepcat himself ever did.

How ever, I'd be more than happy to send my name and address to Bart, and yes that's U.S. dollars guys, $500 from Puetz, $1,000 from me. DOW 5368 or less on close 10/31/97 Puetz takes the dough, DOW 5369 or more on close 10/31/97, Moi takes the dough. Agreed Monsier Puetzke?