Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:01)
It ain't so boys, my money IS where my mouth is, per my original posts of 23:11 and 22:33. Now if you two comedians or whomever MORONS it was that were posting in my name and upping the ante will just step forward and declare yourselves, "VGER" will absolve you and admonish you to grow some brains and balls and watch what happens with this GENUINE Gentleman's agreement..OK boys? I DO have a sense of humor you know, as any casual reading of my past posts will reveal, however, I'm trying to do serious business here with Puetz if you don't mind!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:04)
To Steve Puetz
Watch out Steve, the Kitco NAZIS will get you and your family! I'm sooo scared.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:07)
Excuse me judge ITO, could we have a little side bar. I AM standing by my words if the background noise makers from OJ's defense team would just quiet their envious rantings. ( And no jokes about OJ "winning" the trial boys! ) Now as to the 10/31 issue vs. end of October, I'll be happy gracoiusly give Puetz the entire last 10 days of October, and remeber it was ME earlier today who stated that I expect a nasty downturn "October surprise" in the DOW yes? Now then DowJudge, you want some of this action or you want to join the Noisemakers??

Gary Linker
(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:08)
LGB. It's obviuos to anyone that you have no balls! At least Puetz does not hide behind goofy nicknames.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:10)
LGBug, Bet him $2,000. You still will win!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:11)
@the scene
Puetz -- You better get the EXACT terms specified, and in writing. This seems to be changing by the minute!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:12)
NERVE! You lost!!!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:13)
Excuse me Mr. Licker, it's well past your bedtime and I'm trying to conduct some adult business here. As far as I can tell, this is the first time anyone on this site has been willing to make a proposal to put their money behind their opnions, in pitting said opnions against someone with a divergent view. What was that about balls? or would you like to join in and take a piece of the action with me? If not, kindly stand by and watch how well LGB can behave with grace and humility after winning some easy money!

Gary Linker
(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:14)
LimpingGBug, How many times will you change your mind?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:15)
Yes Ted, my $2000 would be just as safe as my $1,000, however, I made my proposal once as is, and shall stick by same if Mr. Puetz is in agreement and Mr. Kitner agrees to the intermediasy role.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:16)
LGB, You are an embarrassment to your family!!!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:17)
In answer to your question "How many times will I change my mind", NONE, Zero, NADA, Zilch. TOHU and BOHU, Naught, NEVER, "0". Does that asnwer your question? How come you're still up by the way? I told you to hit the rack boy.....

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:18)
Fine. I will agree to $2000 for the sake of these morons! Send your money to Bart.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:19)
SURELY your honor can come up with a better line than THAT one! If you're going to try and rile me, can't you make reference to my mother or something?? ( Laughing all the way to the bank on Nov. 1st...LGB )

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:21)
Re 00:18 post
00:18 post not mine of course, as anyone who understands wagering will realize, not that many current participants would understand such things.....

Gary Linker
(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:21)
I have not insulted you in any way. Please stop insulting me by misspelling my name. Act adultlike

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:23)
Lurking Goldbug: I'm having 2nd thoughts about this whole wager thing. The bet was your $2,000 to my $500. Besides, I can see things getting out of hand. I made a $200 bet with Senator Blutarsky a week ago. Now this. I don't want to put Bart or Kitco in the position of this becoming a casino. Asking him to hold the money would put him in an uncomfortable position. I don't want to do that.

I want to get back to analyzing the markets. Not taking on bets with everyone who wants to challange my views. I am willing to take on analytical challanges, but I'm calling it quits on any new bets. It's disruptive to the intent of this forum.

I'll still go with the bet -- your $2,000 to my $500 if you can figure out a way to leave Bart out of it. Otherwise, the deals off.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:23)
give em hell. the sky is falling!!! LOL

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:25)
Did you just say act "adultlike"???? I think I'm gonna faint! I must be up too late myself, I'm laughing so hard a can HARDLY type! OK boys, this has gone on far enough, Puetz, you have my terms, I'll take your answer tommorrow AM. Any posts going forward from here are NOT from me till tommorrow, understood? I don't want to see the site degenerate any more than anyone else so I'll stop taking up bandwidth and let the Imbecilic morons who would NEVER have the Heuvos to do this kind of thing, make their sorry insults and phony posts. God night all and remeber, LurkingGbug is your friend! ( Whether you know it or not! )

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:25)
Is your babysitter still awake?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:27)
If anyone is interested in watching blood running in Asian stocks tonight,go to then hit refresh every minute or so.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:46)
@Mr. Drysdales' Bank
I cyphered:What if them bears was more than them bulls, but them bulls had Mr.Greenjeans backin'um with a secret plan. Then, them folks across the big pond had trouble buyin' chitlins with their earnin's and could not find agreeance with the plan. Them bears mighten be right after all and the spit might otta hit the fan. Ya recon?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:54)
Earl 00:01 - I haven't gotten to that one yet. The rate of completions
has really slowed down lately - I find myself reading for 10 minutes
then thinking about it for the next 20 or so. It's good to know I haven't
got to her best yet. Lately I've been carrying one of her books around
with me and I get the strangest people walking up to me and asking me
about it. I have no desire to talk aobut the book - I just want to
experience it.

Carl 08:08 - Your question is one of the reasons I started on this
journey. I don't know the answer. But the question seems insignificant
to me today. All I can suggest is you invest the time and read it for
yourself. You won't be disappointed.

EB 14:13 - I've been lurking on and off. Enjoying the past few weeks.
I did take a trip to the Apache Indian reservation in the White
Mountains. Learned a great deal of history, culture, and legend. I had
a great time. I even saw a picture of Short Bull. 'Short Bull' if you are
lurking - your namesake was a very very ugly person - IMHO.

I thought about your strategy of splitting the season in half and playing
the first half now. I don't want to do that. Have you noticed the
spread in the March contract? 75/80 was about 200 the other day. That's
a 750 $ spread in 6 months if the price remains flat or rises and like
you said - what is the downside? Does anyone out there trade spreads?

Golf would be great. Please give me a little notice ( a few days ) I
have started another contract and do work a couple of days a week.

Robert McKinnon
(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:57)
I mentioned I might add charts of the Head-and-Shoulders Formation that the DJIA is in at some point. If you visit my UNDER CONSTRUCTION web site and click on the link "GOLD", you'll be able to see all the charts I've being preparing for my investment club.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 00:59) light of the Asian markets
Any insight on the US$ and gold close tomorrow going into the long weekend ?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 01:00)
OK. I'm back just one more GODDAM time.
I give in. Puetz, you win. I admit, Asia's in a
tailspin and I'm chickening out. You guys gotta
be right at least once.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 01:02)
BART: I like this format. Loads better than the original and is much easier to use than the previous improvement. Now that squelch button could have saved a lot of bandwidth tonight and every night. And most weekends.

Robert Prechter
(Fri Aug 29 1997 01:05)
@the heavens above us
Mike Sheller: regards to your 20:38......aren't you stickin your long neck out a little with that call? let's see, in essence you're sayin that silver will either go up or go down. Wow. what a call. I know you'll be right tomorrow and we will thank our "lucky stars" that we have you here to enlighten us.

Mark Hasenfus
(Fri Aug 29 1997 01:09)
Hi Bob,

WOW! I can't believe it. Bob. It's really you.
What a humbling experience. You are so great. I follow
all of your newsletters all the way back to 1982. WOW!
What a track record you have! Do you know God?

Fish Head
(Fri Aug 29 1997 01:11)
on the beach
Australia All Ordinaries ^AORD 12:49AM 2575.2 -56.1 -2.13%
China Shanghai Composite ^SSEC 11:30PM1216.707 +2.815 +0.23%
Hong Kong Hang Seng ^HSI 12:30AM14242.25-633.85 -4.26%
India BSE 30 ^BSESN 12:50AM 3910.01 -53.14 -1.34%
Indonesia Jakarta Composite^JKSE12:30AM 498.107-32.259 -6.08%
Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 12:50AM18150.32-301.13 -1.63%
Malaysia KLSE Composite ^KLSE 12:31AM 811.17 -1.01 -0.12%
New Zealand NZSE 40 ^NZ40C 12:08AM 2456.21 -31.68 -1.27%
Pakistan Karachi 100 ^KSE 12:50AM 1765.02 +1.53 +0.09% Singapore Straits Times ^SS1 12:31AM 1779.77 -66.85 -3.62%
South KoreaSeoul Composite^KS11 12:49AM 712.51 -4.35 -0.61%
Sri Lanka All Share ^CSE 4:59AM 825.20 -9.80 -1.17%
Taiwan Taiwan Weighted ^TWII 12:03AM 9827.49 0.00 0.00%
Thailand SET ^SETI 12:49AM 491.40 -20.36 -3.98%

Here kitty-cat, here kitty-cat. Where are you master of chaos.

Dr. Spock
(Fri Aug 29 1997 01:43)
@ the hospital
I have been informed that new outbreaks of cat scratch fever are
present at this site. Be advised...this is a highly contagious disorder.
Individuals with symptoms should be avoided at all cost, and please,
everyone wear a condom.

Strad Master
(Fri Aug 29 1997 01:46)
Euroyen question
ANYONE: Shucks! I log on late and miss all the fun! Anyway, does anyone know anything about Euroyen? What should Euroyen do in a crisis such as that happening in Asia? Is there a site for Euroyen quotes? Thanks for any assistance.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 01:49)
Kuston: "The Virtue of Selfishness" is her 'touchstone' work. By sheer inadvertance on my part, it was the first work of hers that I read. ......over 30 years ago. Wish I still had that copy, to review the notes I wrote in the margins. ....... The novels are only elaborations on the theme.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 02:04)
Hello Strad, you didn't miss much though it may appear otherwise. I just logged back on. My GENUINE posts tonight ( and this morning! ) were 22:33, 23:11, and 00:25. Mr Puetze's posts were 23:07 ( where he implies he'll accept my wager ) bet ) , 00:23 ( where he then backs OUT of the wager ) and 23:14,19,23,26,29,31,and33, where he or one of his minoins posting as me, the REAL LGB, desperately attempt to find a way out of the wager through nefarious means!! My offer still stands Puetz my advice selling friend, my ORIGINAL and ONLY offer of 23:11.

Bart Kitner
(Fri Aug 29 1997 02:04)
To Lar: If youre talking about the Royal Canadian Mint, they have to buy them back at face value. They bowed to pressure to buy back the 76 ( Montreal no less ) Olympic series at face value when the silver value dipped below face, and ended up taking back several million dollars worth. For that reason, those coins today ( if available ) are probably the most risk-free way of buying silver. ( No, we dont sell them )

To Lurker: Internet usage is growing too quickly to try to draw conclusions about correlations to the market based on number of hits at our site. The hit count has been climbing steadily since weve been online ( two years ) , and the market......well I dont have to tell you.

ABOUT THE FORMAT: "Give them bandwidth and they will beat a path to your door". Were cutting out the "wasted" bandwidth, but dont worry, you wont feel a thing.

To the Gamblers: Sorry, but Ill have to pass on being the official holder of your funds. Why not entrust it to the pork belly pit boss?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 02:08)
Love the site Bart. Sorry about all the bandwidth wasted tonight, the vast majority of it wasn't me ( as you no doubt already know having access to the posters origins and al ) l. Thanks again for providing a great forum and I promise you this is NOT another "HepCat" fiasco in the making!! Now then, where or where is Platinum headed in the near term?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 02:12)
LurkingGbug 22:23 - You are looking for a gentleman's wager while you
hide behind an alias? That's pretty sporting of you. Do you happen
to play golf?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 02:25)

Check out this Bloomberg summary of todays action in Asia. ( WARNING--If the sight of blood disturbs you, do not go there )

(Fri Aug 29 1997 02:32)
Flash Alert!!!!!!
Hi Mike:

I too am 100% certain that you are right.

NOTE: The thoughts and analyses expressed in this post are speculation. The reader must choose how much of the material
presented herein should be used to apply to his/her own personal market activities. Any comments, predictions, or
speculations concerning companies, investments, or investment markets are for research and educational purposes and may
be subject to error. Past patterns and occurences in financial markets, whether in relation to astrology or any other form of
analysis or strategy, may not always be reliable indicators of future activity. Readers are advised of the potential risk of
capital loss in any uninsured investment, including stocks, bonds, gold bullion, futures, and other investment vehicles. Even
paper money issued by lawfully constituted governments, including the Treasury of the United States of America, carries no
guarantee that its purchasing power and relative value will remain intact and not erode over time. Information contained in
this post may have been gathered from many sources, believed to be reliable, but no guarantee can be made as to the accuracy
of such information. The issuer of this post is not a dealer or broker in investments, neither stocks, bonds, gold, or other
investments. The issuer of this post may have a position in the securities, commodities, or investments mentioned. The
issuer of this post presents the material herein as proprietary opinion and research and is not acting in any investment
advisory capacity. Readers are advised to consult with their own personal or corporate sources of financial or market
counsel. All choices made by readers of this post based on the information contained herein are the responsibility of the
reader. It is the right of every person in a free society to use the information presented herein as they best see fit.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 03:08)
Surfin' WWW

Here is a very user friendly site for getting charts on all the commodities. Simply select the commodity and "click"--Et Voila--gives chart from 01-94 to present date. Cool! STRAD-- Go here for Euro-Yen.. Just enter euro in the search box and you should current find EuroYen data and charts.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 03:11)

HERE is the cool chart site--

(Fri Aug 29 1997 03:13)
..... ! .....

Youre getting kinda shrill. It seems as if either your age or IQ have eroded before our very eyes. Like one of those time compressed, high speed films in which a daffodil would bloom and then wilt before your eyes over the course of only a few seconds..

About 10 years ago, Frances Ford Copola made a film called "Koyaniskasti" ( Im sure I spelled that wrong ) . The title is a Hopi word for "life out of balance". The film is nothing but images moving faster than normal, or slower, or somehow altered from our expectations of reality. There are scenes looking down at the tops of clouds moving across the sky. When speeded up, the clouds look like a roiling, boiling, ever changing blanket of fog. Pretty cool. Anyway, there is a scene of shifting sand dunes shot in late afternoon light, making the shadows long. The camera focuses in on a single dune as the wind carries it away in a long sandy finger until the dune is no more..

So much my view of your descent into more juvenile haunts. If you continue this trend, you may soon fade to insignificance and, should the ensuing slide share familiar paths of recent note, will witness an ever increasing puffing of chest and demands to be loved that all who gather here would not but contemptuous see. If thus be the fates, I hope this will be achieved by the fairer roads of inattention rather than confrontation. You have entertained some, and could add more in future offerings. You are surer to find an audience if you keep in mind that this place enjoys some keen intellects, underestimating this, is sure to be more your loss than theirs.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 03:20)

STRAD--Try HERE, then enter euro. That should do

(Fri Aug 29 1997 03:24)
To Kitco

My 03:20, and 03:11 addresses are the correct ones for the sites mentioned.

Strad Master
(Fri Aug 29 1997 03:32)
Mysterious URL's!
AURIC: Thanks for the commodity site. Sadly, though, the url for the Euroyen doesn't work. Could you check it and make sure it's right. A million thanks.

Strad Master
(Fri Aug 29 1997 03:38)
AURIC: Oops! Our posts crossed! I found the site and I thank you. It'll be interesting to see what it does as the Asian markets tank. Again many thanks.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 03:42)

The Compass Financial site ROCKS! Here is the home page ( I hope ) -- --can find everything from gold to euroyens! And just look at this AWESOME set of links--

(Fri Aug 29 1997 03:45)

The 03:42 links are right! AWAY!

Strad Master
(Fri Aug 29 1997 04:02)
I've got a weird sense of humor!
RJ: Your description of "Koyanisqatsi" reminded me of a movie I read about in Omni Magazine several years ago. This performance artist decided to make a film. He got himself a movie camera and hooked the shutter up to a time punch clock. He centered the camera on the time clock which also displayed the date. Every time he punched the clock the camera would shoot off a few frames. Then he shaved his beard and head bald. At exactly midnight on January 1st of ( whatever year it was - about 15 years ago ) he positioned himself in front of the camera and punched the time clock. He then did this every hour, on the hour, for ONE FULL YEAR!!! ( Talk about edication to one's art! Whew! ) During this time he didn't cut his hair or beard. The article said that by the end they had to set up two enormous theater speakers next to his bed to rouse him in time to punch the clock, as sleep deprivation pushed him to the verge of psychosis. So, in the finished film we see this nice-looking guy start out on January 1st and as the clock spins and the date changes we watch his hair grow out as he degenerates into a wild-eyed grayish mass of disheveled humanoid protoplasm by December 31st. It also said he slept for a week non-stop afterwards. Amyway, it must be a riot! I'd give anything to see it. Has anyone else heard of it and/or seen it?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 04:26)

For the warped at Kitco--which I am sure is a two thirds majority--go here.. A guide to the wonderfully weird. Stread--You might try e mailing the host and asking him about the film you mentioned. I bet he could find it. Here is the e mail address--

(Fri Aug 29 1997 04:28)


(Fri Aug 29 1997 05:26)
Stocks plunge led by electric machinery
Tokyo stocks ended Friday sharply lower as profit takers continued to
unload electric and precision machinery issues throughout the day. Many
banking stocks dropped as well.

The market recouped some early losses near the close, helped by
bargain hunting of low-priced domestic demand-related issues. The
upside was capped, however, by hedge selling of futures by domestic
financial institutions fearing wide fluctuations in the U.S. stock market
and Asian financial markets.

The Nikkei Stock Average ended at 18,229.42, down 222.03, but up
slightly from earlier losses. The key index gyrated wildly in the first 30
minutes after the opening bell, hitting a high for the day at 18,328.73 at
9:01 a.m. and a low of 17,973.90 at 9:27 a.m.

Trading was lifeless except for late afternoon buying from foreign
brokerages for typical month-end window dressing activities. Domestic
investors mostly sat out the market. Volume totaled 370 million shares.
Declining issues swamped advancing ones 692 to 361.

Among losers were Sony, Toppan Printing and Sakura Bank. But
Nippon Steel, Mitsubishi Estate and Advantest rose.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 05:31)
Worry about banks with Asian exposure.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 05:41)
An analysis of gold prices, lease rates and hedging.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 05:47)
Central Banks using leverage to buy US Treasury Bonds.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 06:13)

I am looking at the Homestake Jan. 98 Call Option, Strike Price 15. Can get it for about 1.00 ( $100 ) . Whadda ya think? Also--a repost of site where you enter a stock or futures in the search box, and it gives you the intraday, daily, and weekly charts, PLUS a complete listing of all the options of that stock and their current bid/asked prices. Very user friendly and free-NO registration either.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 06:15)
US Dollar SDR rate. Has anyone been tracking this? SDR's are "paper gold" and this could be a big event.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 06:18)

HERE is the place for options, charts etc. Disregard link in my previous post!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 06:23)
Bulgaria gets IMF loan to establish currency board.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 06:32)
Fears of Brazilian devaluation increase. "real could become another baht"

(Fri Aug 29 1997 06:38)
Bovespa drops, influenced by international markets

SO PAULO, 08/29/97 - The principal stock exchanges all over the world fell yesterday,
affecting the So Paulo Stock Exchange ( Bovespa ) . The New York Stock Exchange ( NYSE ) fell
on the concern that interest rates will rise after a government report stated that gross domestic
product rose 3.6%. The possibility of lower profits by companies in the second half of the year and
the persistence of the Asiatic currency crisis also contributed to the drop. The Dow Jones fell
1.19%, despite the fact that interest rates for 30 year bonds fell from 6.66% to 6.57% per year. In
Brazil the latest developments of the Asian crisis resulted in possibilities of a devaluation of the
Real, associated with rumors of the fall of financial institutions and the drop in the NYSE. The
Bovespa index fell 3.85% and Eletrobrs shares were down 8.13%. In London the stock market
fell 1.3% pressured by companies whose operations depend on the Asian market, like HSBC
Bank, for example. The Malaysian Stock Exchange decided to prohibit the sale of shares for future
payments, arousing fears that the country will abandon its free market policies. ( Gazeta Mercantil )
( SB )

Mike Sheller
(Fri Aug 29 1997 06:39)
@cofee.morn Strad, Bob P., Yugo, RJ
STRAD: ( 4:02 ) I have long entertained that idea of doing a time-lapse of one's whole life ( a pic a day perhaps ) Then one could see one's self age before one's eyes. Trouble is, very few 6 month old's come up with this thought. BOB PRECHTER: Did I also mention that if silver doesn't go up, AND doesn't go down, it will go sideways! YUGO: My lawyers will call your lawyers. RJ: ( 3:13 ) As usual, like a razor. Can I hold your coat as you step into the Kitco Alley with some hapless victim? My greatest joy at this site is not who is wrong or who is right. I come here not to see no fight. I venture forth in search of light.

George Cole
(Fri Aug 29 1997 07:00)
good news ignored
December gold up $1.40, but Joberg down 1%. I do not like this action where the stocks ignore rising bullion. Near-term bearish.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Aug 29 1997 07:07)
Oil's Well
SPEED: I have been looking at Black Gold with interest as well. I do watch it on and off. In '94 I presented a study to some investors and capital sources promoting a fund to buy shares in depressed drillers and independent producers. I saw appreciation potentials of 200-400% by '96. My research was initiated on an astrological configuration I had been working on, but it also made eminent business sense. Energy was in the sh+tcan, oil was at $14 a barrel, drill rigs were in drydock, or virtually an endangered species, and it was almost a no-brainer that as the business cycle matured crude would be back in the mid $20's. My own personal account did well on this play, but there were no takers for the project. I was simply amazed at the energy deals going down this year at tremendously inflated prices payed for assets I was hawking at a fraction of the cost to investors in 94/95. Most people view the future as an extension of the past, so they don't see the value in an underpriced asset. Especially one that ain't going away soon. The situation with gold today is very similar. Oil has worked off a correction, it seems, and may be ready to recover significantly. Even a double top here would bring some nice profits, and heat up the markets, let alone another leg up to new highs. The puts are running hot over calls lately, and in the energy market ( especially gas ) this is a sure tipoff of rising prices to come. However mature the business cycle may be, the final burst should come from stuff like crude and copper. Copper is forming an interesting pattern which I will try to do a piece on in the Astrological Investyor feature at Gold-Eagle.
But yes - oil bears watching here. It is important that you remind us..

(Fri Aug 29 1997 07:16)
TGIF boys+girls.....EBN Gold up1.75 and Silver up 5 cents ( they finally reacted to the world-wide equity chaos ) ....Looks like Hong Kong really got hammered ( glad I didn't ) and everywhere else seems down in equity-world....Wall Street will be trading in "thin market" conditions and it IS Friday but as Alfred E. Newman used to say,"what me worry"....
bring it on Puetz!!! Iez ready and waitin....firewood is IS in....gun IS loaded....Go stox go!

George Cole
(Fri Aug 29 1997 07:19)
Asian demand

Asian Gold-Physical demand seen improving

HONG KONG, Aug 29 ( Reuter ) - Physical demand for gold in Asia, which has been sluggish, should strengthen in September,
helped by approaching holidays and increased travel between mainland China and Hong Kong, traders said on Friday.

``Physical demand has been slow in the last two months but I think it will pick up in September,'' a trader said.

Demand would grow from stockpiling for the Christmas shopping season, he said.

It would also rise because mainland Chinese will find it easier to obtain visas to travel to Hong Kong, which was returned to
Chinese sovereignty by Britain on July 1, he said.

Besides legitimate buying of gold, the increased visiting would lead to more smuggling of the precious metal into China, which
has banned imports and exports of gold.

At midday on Friday Hong Kong spot gold rose to US$324.50/325.00 compared with the previous New York close of
US$323.70/324.20. A small bit of physical buying helped Friday's market in Hong Kong, a trader said.

Another trader, assessing the longer-term outlook, said after the market has experienced price pressures, physical demand
traditionally rises. He projected that demand would be good between US$318-322 an ounce.

``Asian physical demand is excellent. In developing countries like China, Vietnam and the Philippines there is a lot more personal
wealth. People are spending more on jewelry,'' the trader said.

The sharp declines in currencies in Southeast Asia had gold traders divided about the impact on their market. Currencies in the
region continued to slide on Friday, dragging down stocks and pushing up interest rates.

One dealer said the effect was to boost the attraction to gold as a stable alternative for the average investor. Gold is more
accessible than some other investments, the trader said.

But another said: ``In local currency terms, gold remains pretty expensive.'' He predicted slack demand as long as the currency
crisis continues.

The trading range for the next couple weeks should be US$323-327 per ounce, the trader said.

Dealers in Singapore also cited the currency turmoil as hurting Asia demand for gold, but robust Indian buying and steady
Chinese demand provided bright spots in a drab market.

A bank trader in Singapore said, ``The Thai market is sinking. There's some buying from Vietnam, but the weak demand picture
in the region will probably stretch for a few more weeks.''

Singapore gold premiums softened due to weak demand and the steady influx of kilobars from South Korea.

They were quoted at 50-65 U.S. cents an ounce over spot London prices against 55-70 cents last week.

But another dealer said the weakness of the Korean won, which has also come under attack and the imposition of new taxes
``may slow down'' the arrival of gold from Korea.

In Hong Kong, premiums ranged between 60 cents and $1.10, dealers said.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 07:23)
@the scene
Gold is looking more like a market to sell after the open than anything else! But, be prepared for anything. It is promising to be wild day in a lot of markets!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 07:40)
Het Lurking Gbug...think before you start accusing people of impersonating you!!!...The Ted ( cape 23:50 ) wasn't me!!! My last post last night was @ 18:59 when I posted I was off to watch a movie and then my damn ISP was down afterwards and thus not my USUAL sign-off and thus NOT my answer to Mike Sheller's ( my FRIEND ) post of 20:43,asking me a question....if you read other's posts as closely as you read your own,you'd realize that I posted two days ago a post that said I "I totally agree with you about "doom + gloomers" totally missing the entire bull market in obviously didn't read this,even though it was posted right after one of your posts....It ain't too bright to come to a NEW site and start accusing people of things that they couldn't and wouldn't be responsible for...Maybe think before you shoot Mr. big balls!
....and as much as I don't politically agree with WW,he wouldn't have done posts in your name either!!!ted @ cape...hahahaha...never posted that way before buddy's ted @ capeBRETON buddy....

(Fri Aug 29 1997 07:45)
@Mike Sheller
Mornin Mike! and by the way the weather is overcast on the North Atlantic this morning and it's not supposed ta clear until Sunday....and do you remember what day that IS??

(Fri Aug 29 1997 07:54)
@El Nino
For all you El Nino FREAKS ( Auric etc.etc. ) Jimmy Rogers will be on CNBC's Squwak Box in a liile over an hour ta talk about El Nino.....Something WEIRD is certainly happening here with the weather as we had one of our driest summers on record and the ocean temperature is warmer ( 70 F ) than I've ever seen it here...Just read a short article in the local paper ( off the Canadian wire ) sayin Canada should have a warmer winter than usual...
GREEEAT! It'll be 20 degrees with 40 MPH winds instead of 15 degrees...Wow,I can hardly wait!

Mike Sheller
(Fri Aug 29 1997 07:58)
I remember something about 4:17 a.m.
TED: I am baking the cake now , buddy. You must be psychic! ( something I do NOT claim for myself ) . Was just thinking I gotta tell you I haven't forgotten about yer 'scope. I'm just sorely overworked ( and underpaid ) these days. Plus me daughter-in-law is in from Shanghai and all kindsa stuff goin' on. But I haven't forgotton you. Any plans for the B'day?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 08:00)
@I can't count
Jimmy Rogers is on NOW!!...Settle back and enjoy Auric....S+P futures down 1.75 and Nasdq down 4.0....Dec. gold up 1.60 @ 328.70

(Fri Aug 29 1997 08:01)
If you want to see the future, perhaps you must look to the past. Mike Sheller translates Fractual Theory into laymans terms - drawing prophetic parellels to the 1985 Gold market:

(Fri Aug 29 1997 08:08)
TED: Happy Birthday.

George Cole: ( re: your 7:19 article ) When did China ban gold imports?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 08:08)
@Mike Sheller
Enjoy your visit with your daughter-in-law and I ain't in no rush my friend! Take your time and do it when convenient....No special plans,just another futures still only down 1.75 and all things considered,that ain't too bad....Maybe the "dipsters" will try and bail out da world today.....Mornin Cherokee.....

Dr Spock
(Fri Aug 29 1997 08:10)
@ the hospital
I believe I have located the host.Be advised this is a highly contagious disease. Please avoid individuals with the disease,unless they appear civil.I am also using my psychological background to prepare a profile on the type of host who would spread such a disease. I will post my work if the disease spreads further. As always please use a condom.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 08:12)
Kuston, Read what? What question are you referring to?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 08:12)
Mornin Auroelf!! Thankx but it ain't till Sunday......don't jump the gun on me buddy....feel old enough as it is!....S+P futures down 1.70

Dr. Spock
(Fri Aug 29 1997 08:24)
@ the hospital
TED: HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!! My mother tells me she used Quervo shots to stave the onset of cat scratch fever. I have planned several doses today. Strictly medicinal you understand. Good luck trading.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 08:24)
@gov'ment Stats
July personal income expected to rise 0.3% and personal spending expected to rise 0.6%....Will be released in six minutes....Long Bond up 2 ticks

(Fri Aug 29 1997 08:28)
@this ain't my damn b'day
Spock: Thankx but it AIN't my birthday!!....Comex: Gold up 1.30;silver up 6.1 cents; Pl up .30: and PA up .20.....

Mike Sheller
(Fri Aug 29 1997 08:39)
forcing my hand - RP & CRUDE OIL
BOB PRECHTER: Sorry to keep you in the dark re silver. If the AG can get past 4.85 look for next resistance at 5.17 ( even if its only a modest consolidation ) . WHETHER it will break 4.85, I could not tell you for a certainty. I am merely an astrologer, not a fortuneteller. CRUDE OIL: Now that my thoughts are stimulated on the Black Gold, a look at the weekly chart tells me there's room indeed for new highs next year. $30 crude in '98 is possible once this baby gets off the ground. Daily puts vs calls are short term bullish now, and a nice pattern is forming in the weekly chart. A modest step-up base can give way to a full-fledged bull move. Time to watch Crude, and to nibble ( layer, ala RJ ) for futures players.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 08:56)
Next time please offer your advice to someone who can actually use them.
Go stocks!!! PUETZ are you still on, or are you too scared?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 09:18)
Where is everyone? Am I the king of Kitco. 300% on stocks!!!

Gary Linker
(Fri Aug 29 1997 09:21)
What goes up must come down
That's what makes the world go around.

Tom from Ohio
(Fri Aug 29 1997 09:22)
A couple of days ago you had an excellent post which outlined the pros
and cons of the different gold coins.
I was wondering if you would comment on the Chinese Panda. Does this
coin have a wide circulation? Do sales of these coins trigger a
reporting event?
Also, are reporting requirements triggered after a minimum $ amount?,
or is a dealer required to report on even the sale of a single coin?

George Cole
(Fri Aug 29 1997 09:27)
spike down?
December gold up 80 cents; Joberg down 1.3%. Looks lie we will get a final spike down in the yellow, but probably not to new lows. Reaction to news VERY BAD this week.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 09:45)

Excellent 3:13

Looks like that the message hasn't be read yet though. We'll see ...


(Fri Aug 29 1997 10:06)
low earth orbit
Sheller - nice disclaimer. All should us it.

ALL - you guys are a funny lot. Especially late at night. LGB likes the attention and likes to 'win', I bet.

LGB - Those who work in computerland know that Y2K is no fantasy. It will be like a bombs going off everywhere at the same time. Some will be less harmed then others. The problem is that the "systems" will be shot through with crashes. It is not hype. You have stong opinions on a lot of things. If your expertise is not in information systems then it might be benefitial to hear their story. Try turning your PC system clock to 12/31/99 12:55 and see what happens. ( It is possible that doing so could harm your system or data. But if you are sure things will be OK then no problem. ) Check your spreadsheets that use @DATE functions to grab the time for calculations, etc. Most PC systems' BIOS and Real Time Clocks fail to present correct dates for 2000 or after. Software uses them to figure out when "now" is. On and on it goes. It is a dismal situation a best. Consider currency trading shutting down. Not possible? How about NYSE or NASDAQ tubing? No way? Almost all of our complex systems use 100's to 1000's of inter-connected programs and equipment infrastructure to work. And it ALL must work or it will ALL crash. Consider the credit card industry shutting down. I know it doesn't seem possible that all this could happen. But it will suprise us all.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 10:35)
This sucks....bunghole net....server...thingie....

(Fri Aug 29 1997 10:43)
This sucks....bunghole net....server...thingie....

(Fri Aug 29 1997 10:48)

Did I thank you too quick? What's happened ?


(Fri Aug 29 1997 10:56)


(Fri Aug 29 1997 11:13)
Buenos Dias...What a beautiful Morn!!
MikeS - I'll be W/W the sweet-black-stuff. You forgot to add your Now infamous DIS-claimer ( play on words, if your 'hip to the streets' ) . I had to wait till I was in my 30's to get my ass kicked good by any market ( my first ass-kicking was in grains ) ...when I was in my 20's ( unfortunately or fortunately ) all I cared about was the short-skirt theories... ;- ) . Keep up the sagacious analysis. Crude is Good Food for the Dude!!

Ted - nice DIS-claimer earlier, heh, heh ( chuckling ) . Strawberries and Canteloupe for Breakie, yum, yum. In the 60's now but it will be a scorcher the beach ( surfing ) or to the course ( golfing ) . Who works on a Friday as long as you have a pager and a good cell-phone?? All metals up, c'mon PLAT!!!

MR. Big Balls - Close the pie-hole...go out for a long walk and reflect... ;- )

Strad - I have some conflict ( I should have mentioned the concert to the girlfriend earlier ) but I will try like hell to get there...when do you play at S.B. The Arlington Theatre is a fabulous place for a concert. I have seen the L.A. Philharmonic there a few times... you been??

RJ - today would be a nice day to push around a few thousand OZ's of the Say a mere 30,000 or so?? 15,000??

Mr. Big-Balls ( again ) - go...


EB :-$$ )

(Fri Aug 29 1997 11:31)
test the site

Yellow Jacket
(Fri Aug 29 1997 11:52)
What's happening??
Is Kitco down? I'm having a hard time getting anything back. We'll see if this way works.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 11:57)
Hello??? anyone home??
This is sooooo slooooooow thiiis moooorning...



(Fri Aug 29 1997 12:01)

(Fri Aug 29 1997 12:02)
Back to normal

(Fri Aug 29 1997 12:13)
Japan- bankrupties increase
Will they sell US bonds to salvage their economy and banking system?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 12:18)
There is NO VOLUME in the gold,000...NO VOLUME. we need VOLUME...Volume...VVOOLLUUMMEE!!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 12:19)
According to AP the internet selling of stocks has slowed down worldwide communications dramatically.
I see DOW correcting 35% Puetz. NOT!!! LOL

(Fri Aug 29 1997 12:20)
Buyers...@where are you
Look around...find some buyers...we need some BUYERS...Buy, Buy, Buy!!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 12:21)
There was something that I was going to say this morning,... but I forgot what it was! :- ) )

Now I remember! Personal income was up only 0.1% while spending was up 0.8%? Somebody has got something wrong somewhere! Yes, I know. Personal savings was down to 3.7%. So what else is new? Where is all of this money being spent?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 12:25)
BillD -- That was the point that I was trying to make for the last week or so. There is no liquidity in the mining stocks. Try to sell some of them. Yet, the bid and ask prices are not moving much. Then again, when you have open market orders for two plus hours, and no one takes it...

(Fri Aug 29 1997 12:29)
It's almost 12:30 EDT, and there is about 195 million shares traded on the NYSE. It seems a little on the slow side. Perhaps next week we will see a pick up in the volume for mining shares. I just hope that it's not to the downside!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 12:31)
BillD...nobody cares :-(
Unfortunately for the Gold-Bugs, nobody cares about the gold stocks right now...or so it seems...Get on board with other stocks ( :- ) ) . Or watch the money fall through the fingertips...dooooh! ( bartSimpson )
Or play the currencies...that's a FUN rollercoaster. 280 down-the-middle! Or in the trees??

(Fri Aug 29 1997 12:33)
Puetz, is that you still posting under my handle at 08:56, 09:18, and 12:19??? Still trying to weasle out of that wager by cross posting as me huh? Anyone who's read my posts knows I never write less than 300 words so you're not fooling anyone pal!! For the unititiated, I proposed a wager with Puetz last evening at 22:33, and 23:11 re his Market crash prediction. Puetz implied an acceptance of my wager via his 23:07 post, proceeded to post under MY handle at 23:14, 19, 23, 26, 29, 31, 33, and a few others I didn't record , and then did his final weasling out on the wager at 00:23 after all his "flase" posts in my name. Gott ahand it to ya for cleverness Puetz. snake oil salesman usually are clever. Bart, you have my permission to PUBLISIZE the origin of the poster using my handle at 23:14, 19, 23, 26, 29, 31, and 33 of last evening. Puetz, you're even lower and more ungentlemanly than I had previously suspected.

Now then, on to more important matters, Placer Dome off -.75%, ECO off -1.22%, Newmont off -.15%, DOW down, Nasdaq UP.....

(Fri Aug 29 1997 12:40)
Here is a prediction for today only, even though no one asked for it, and it has the patented? Mike Sheller disclaimer, and includes a proviso for any loopholes he may have missed.

Seems to me that it is not a good idea to hold stocks over a three day US only weekend. You could get killed on Monday and Tuesday Asia Time. So I think we will get a close below the low of today which I think was 7619. Ralph Acampora was on the other day saying that 7600 would never be broken on the way to Dow 10,000 ( or was it Dow 100,000? )

(Fri Aug 29 1997 12:44)
@the scene
BillD -- The stock markets need every dippy they can muster! Markets are currently at/near critical areas. Lower index numbers than what were seen this morning will lead to many more! That's when the Fat Lady is done warming up her voice!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 12:46)
PANDA: I noticed the difference on income and spending also. It could be credit card spending or draw down of savings, or both.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 12:47)
BlackTuesday,Gold Stocks
"Real" LGB here again. I agree that the three day weekend could be perilous. Re earlier liquidity post, I also have a vivid recollection of what happened to my Homestake, Newmont, and BengtB shares on Black Monday of 1987. After a nice trip to Tahoe that weekend, we were cruising back from the Sierra's that Monday morning when we heard "Market down 500+ points on KGO!" My shares held up for a couple days BUT meanwhile I tried for TWO DAYS to get through to my broker ( Schwab at the time ) , never was able to get through, and ultimately my shares plummeted in price. No safety in gold shares in a crash, and sinc ethen I havn't held them. Tempted to get into some SSC and CDE right now though.

bb fisher
(Fri Aug 29 1997 12:48)
the first 2 or 3 weks of september are not going to be pretty if you are holding gold shares. this the final shakedown coming as soon as the months over. this is why the volume is shriveling up so much on the buy side. whether the bullion breaks thru 314 on the down side i don't know. whateveer it does this is final decline before a powerful rally.
prepare yoursleves now for the new few weeks or alternatively write some calls.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 12:59)
Just back from a long ocean walk with Willy+Eva and I see the Dow hasn't crashed yet....maybe next Puetz...Who needs Hepcat when we have another JERK to replace em....unavoidable when the world is full of em...I guess....

(Fri Aug 29 1997 13:01)
China warned Tokyo not to include Taiwan within the boundaries of the revised security pact, saying Sino-Japan
relations would be put in jeopardy. President Jiang Zemin and the Premier, Mr Li Peng, both condemned Mr
Kajiyama's statements. Mr Hashimoto is expected to duck the Taiwan issue in his meetings with senior Chinese
leaders, including Mr Jiang. Japan is reluctant to declare its hand on the issue because of the ramifications.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 13:11)
Re your earlier post, I can only stand by posts I've written, not the ones that Puetz put up under my handle. You know, when he was trying so desparately last night to find a way to waesle out of the wager we had made re his Market crash prediction. Offer still stands PUETZ. I lay you 2 to 1 odds, my $1000 to your $500 U.S. dollars, that we will NOT see your 35% DJIA decline by October 31. Since you give said decline a 70% chance of happening, this is an extrememly favorable wager opporunity for you ( if you sincerely believe in your own analysis, which as we all NOW know, you do not ) . My last and final offer Puetz, before the long weekend. Our checks to Bart by next week, cashed, a new one drawn on his account, sent to the appropriate party on Nov.1st. What do you say Puetz? Did you grow some Heuvos overnight or are you going to put up more phony posts this morning under my handle????? Sorry to be "shrill" RJ, I love most all the dialogue here from Regular "Joes"However, Snake Oil salesman peddling Advice, selling Newsletters and Books, preying on the naive minions of the investment world out there need to be challenged. Even if that challenge comes from someone of such humble means as Moi. I ran a similar campaign on another unrelated site, a "medical" site where a similar situation was ocurring. You know, some Morons trying to sell a book re the terrible evils of immunizing your children against deadly diseases. You've hear about it I'm sure. The lowest of the low capitolize on other people's ignorance.The Sea Slime of the world should NOT be silenced, I believe in free speech. Instead we hold them up to the light of Scientific scrutiny, design of experiments, visit the facts and the historical record, put the spotlight and microscope of truth to their claims, and expose them for the blood sucking charlatans that they are. Strong words?, "shrill", condescending, dripping with icy bet. ANd I would never direct such sentiments and the sincere investor opnions voiced here. Snake oil salesman on the other hand, fruad and con artists who don't believe a word of what they're selling, you know the type, fyou read about old people losing their retirement savings to such types all the time. THOSE folks deserve some scrutiny, some MAJOR and INTENSE scrutiny. OK, Off my soapbox and back to my humuorous sweet humble self now OK?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 13:11)
Looks like we just got a sell signal on CDE+ SSC.....Hi EB!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 13:19)
Ted Ted, sell signal on SSC? A jerk like Hepcat? And here I thought we was pals!! Remember Ted my man, even I am buying some gold and silver in the next few weeks..... and back into STOCKS by 98 at the latest....

(Fri Aug 29 1997 13:21)
What lovely bargains. Three weeks ago I bought 2000 shares of a lovely gold stock at bargain basement prices. This week I picked up another 1000 shares of another favorite gold stock at bargain basement prices. What a wonderful opportunity. I am not at all good at predicting markets; my short term timing is very poor. But I do like a bargain. And I do like buying low. What is the old adage? Buy low, sell high. I've been out of gold stocks for 16 years now and it's good to get back into them. One I bought last year, and only one, has already split twice. I just hope that I'm not one of those losers who gets stuck with a 300% or 400% gain. I haven't made much so far so I can't be bragging. There isn't enough gain to brag about so far. I just love bargains. I don't know if I will get to sell high but I certainly did get to buy low.
What will be will be. Every investment has an element of risk. Perhaps I am sufficiently ignorant of what is going on to make money. I might be the only person in the United States who is unable to predict the price of stocks or the price of gold. It is a big, bright, beautiful world. Negative comment never gets a reply.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 13:36)
Place your bets
Tables closing....time to roll the dice!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 13:38)
@DFW Airport
LurkingGbug; For heavens sake, why dont you shut up for a while?
You are an antogonistic motormouth. I am sick and tired of your egotistocal drivel.

Yellow Jacket
(Fri Aug 29 1997 13:43)
Buy low, sell high
GENE: I also regained interest due to the bargain basement deals out there. I'm looking for another gold stock ( have two ) and can't make up my mind...REA, Alta, Harmony, Freegold?? So many choices. Any comments on any of those or any others? Anyone?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 13:46)
Your description of "Koyanisqatsi" ( 15 yrs ago ) waking every hour for one year to shoot video frames his transformation from a bald headed clean shaven man to a pyschosis laden ( sleep deprivied ) bearded longhair.

I guess he is relived that they now have low-cost PC based morphing software ?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 13:53)
Hmmm, teaching me by example how to be civil and engage in intelligent discourse on matters financial eh URIS? I rest my case.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 14:03)
Where is it?
The price list of precious metals at the top of this page has gone. I could check the gold price and comments at the same time before, but I cannot longer do it. Does it come back?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 14:08)
To all regarding virus alert. Not true according to following.


from the discription that is included in your attached e-mail, I would
say that it is a new strain of what is refered to as the 'Good-Times'
virus. There were a lot of messages sent aroud about this virs that
claimed to do the same thing... What it does not tell you is that it
a Hoax... The only way that you can get a virus from your e-mail is
to open an attached file on that e-mail and not by opening the e-mail
itself. Example: a lot of e-mail is sent with Word documents
attached to the e-mail message. There is a real virua called concept
macro virus. Many people did get that virus via e-mail but only
because they opened the file and not just the e-mail message. To
date, there is no such method for becomming infected.

NAU College of Engineering
Information Services Department

Strad Master
(Fri Aug 29 1997 14:17)
In defense of civilization!
LURKINGgBUG: Look, my friend, I went to bat to defend you on this site because I believe in free speech and in the free exchange of ideas. However, there is a proper WAY to exchange ideas among civilized people. Accusing Puetz of imposter posting in your name ( without ANY substantiation ) is NOT part of that way. If you have a complaint about imposter postings then the first line of action is to take it up privately with Bart rather than to broadcast your unfounded accusations at full volume in a public forum. I can't say for certain that you're wrong, either, but given his long track record of gentlemanly posting at this site I sincerely doubt that he needs to pull such pathetic pranks! No one is more interested in discerning the truth than I am. I'm a long time subscriber to "Skeptical Inquirer" and know well the disgusting pseudo-science involved with the crackpots who are against immunization. My wife is a doctor and we've read several of the books by these wackos since we have friends who ( through thier ignornce ) espouse such views. Notice that I said we have FRIENDS who believe these things. It is possible in civilized society to disagree with someone and even know that they are totally wrong in their beliefs without having to attack them mercilessly. We've been able to change minds by gentle persuasion and use of facts. It may not be quite so clear an issue when dealing with the vagaries of the markets, so even more discression is warranted. If Puetz is wrong, he's wrong - but is he evil? Is he out to destroy old ladies and orphans with his rapacious greed? Why such a campaign of vitriol? Maybe Puetz actually believes in what he writes. You've made your point with the bet. Now we're all watching for the outcome. Since Bart has already declined to escrow the monies, I suggest that the bet be left in Cybermoney and we'll all follow it with great interest. Or perhaps, someone you can mutually trust here may be willing to escrow it for you. The bottom line is, let's stay civilized. ( And don't make me wrong for having defended you. )

(Fri Aug 29 1997 14:20)

Last I looked the Oct SP 675 puts were going for $0.50. Two of these puts would cost $500. If the SP drops to 600 before expiration, these two puts would be worth $75,000. Why would Puetz, or anyone else for that matter take you up on your silly offer of 2 to 1 odds when the market is paying 150 to 1?

If you come back with a real offer you just might find a taker or two.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 14:20)
Ted, Re your 07:40, you're right and I apologize. Took me some recontructive analysis to figure out what happened, but it all became crystal clear in retrospect who was posting as Moi. Now, what do you think will happen to the market on Tuesday???

( Pardon me URIS for posting by the way....I know Bart delegated you site monitor today ... you being the final authority on who has a right to express opnions and all that, I'll try and be quiet for awhile in deferance to your authority.. )

(Fri Aug 29 1997 14:22)
Hi Miz: Go to the bottom of the page and click on the little chart icon.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 14:26)
Jan@Denver - is ( was ) it true that Lotus Notes could send a trojan horse via Email to another Notes client? Thought I read about that somewhere a few years ago.

Could you post your perception of the Y2K issue and its impact on financial markets, if you have an opinion on that?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 14:28)
@StradMaster Vs LurkingGBugs
StradMaster = DiplomacyMaster,

StradMaster, What a GREAT Answer....

I feel GREAT because you talked for me...Period.


(Fri Aug 29 1997 14:29)
in sack-o-tomatoes
LurkingGbug: Say, do I know you? You've used some buzzwords that makes me think I might. Does rgl mean anything to you?

Mike Sheller: You've got a deal, amigo. But you have to promise not to hold it against me: These guys love to twist arms -- until they hear the words they are paying you to hear. Got mine in a cast right now.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 14:29) support of Mr. Puetz and other related matters
I don't think I entirely agree with Steve's crash forecast but I admire his courage to make a controversial stand and provide support for his claim - in his name and email provided. I haven't followed the cross-debate close enough but I don't think some personal attacks against Steve, or any other kitcoite, are warranted. I avoided the HEPCAT incident by not responding or getting drawn into to battle. I took one exception to RJ's comment against one of my posts - I agree that he has a good sense of the precious metals mkt. - based on his choice of words that inflicted or incited anger rather than calm and reflective thought. ( I am not a goldbug. I am an investor. )

I hope that LurkingGoldBug will consider joining most of us in less serious barbs against our fellow kitcoites. I appologize if any feel I am out of order but - hey, what the heck, TGIF and a long sunshinny weekend lies ahead.


(Fri Aug 29 1997 14:30)
Yellow Jacket: I bought Bema Gold recently. It was selling a book value but please check it out for yourself. BGO on the AMEX. Lots of rumors that it is a good takeover candidate. They have a nice discovery in Chile. Do your own due diligence etc.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 14:31)
D.A., a real offer
Ahh so you think investors would be wise to put their money into "options" then? Excellent, great advice all right. Since that one panned out so well in hindsight, I guess the real test would be to procure all of Puetze's recommendations for the past 10 years, compare them to boring "conventional" analysts who advocated dollar cost averaging into the market, and see what hwould have happened to an initial investment stake of say $50K?? ( Close to my own modest starting point in 1988 ) . I asked Puetz to send me his past 100 Newsletters so we could analyze ALL his recommendations taken as a whole and make a genuine honest comparison. Now there would be some information of GENUINE value to anyone considering Puetz seriously. I extend my "serious" offer to you as well D.A. if you like Puetze's recommendations so much, or is my offer too small potatoes ( pardon me Dan Quayle ) cause you just made 150 to 1 in the market?? Damn, there I go with prolific posting again! ( His annoyingly swollen EGO, and shrill pontifications, exceeded only by his bank account... LGB )

(Fri Aug 29 1997 14:42)
Will HongKong sell US treasuries?
Asian market woes force review of global

Copyright  1997
Copyright  1997 Reuter Information Service

Asian stock markets tumble again

LONDO ( August 29, 1997 11:05 a.m. EDT ) - The slide in Asian markets is
forcing a review of global investment strategy as major players seek to
insulate themselves from possible risk.

"The tolerance for taking risks by major investors has reduced," said
Michael Hughes, global strategist at BZW in London. "They are not in any
rush to take advantage of what might be seen to be cheap valuations on
the back of the shake-out."

Strategists said the Asian woes and deteriorating global liquidity were
forcing investors down the risk curve at a rapid rate into cash and the
relatively stable U.S. bond market.

"The U.S. bond market is a safe a world where the dollar is a
basically sound currency and you are getting a reasonably high real
return," said Hughes.

Asian share markets took another pounding on Friday in tandem with
crumbling regional currencies, adding to losses despite some reversals
from early lows.

Matthew Merritt, emerging market strategist at ING Barings, said cash
weightings were likely to grow.

"Given the uncomfortable global backdrop of developed markets under
pressure, the first port of call is into cash."

Equity markets in Britain and some European centers, as well as in Japan,
were tipped in the wake of the Asian crisis. And some strategists said
Hong Kong may be the most vulnerable market in the region now.

"The biggest basket-case of the lot is actually Hong Kong," said Albert
Edwards, global strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson in London.

He said that inappropriately loose monetary policy in Hong Kong had led to
a recovery in the property sector.

But monetary policy was now facing a significant tightening, putting at risk
a banking and property bubble "par excellence," said Edwards.

BZW's Hughes said Hong Kong was "the most important and the most
sensitive" market, partly because it is widely-owned and the biggest in the
region and partly because it is one of the most interest rate sensitive, given
the levels of debt in the region.

"The Hong Kong situation strikes me as being still a pretty nervy one."

Edwards said concerted currency intervention by Hong Kong could cause
ripples globally due to the central bank's significant holding of U.S.

"If Hong Kong does intervene it sells U.S. Treasuries. Hong Kong will
intervene to keep its peg. It will not devalue and it could mean an awful lot
of sales of U.S. bonds."

Edwards is recommending underweighting equities in a balanced portfolio,
and in a global equity fund raising cash to 15 percent.

"All markets will fall. The U.S. is an accident waiting to happen as well."

ING Barings' Merritt said the meltdown in south-east Asia was a result of
specific regional problems, primarily the external imbalances and the
refusal of the authorities to tackle them.

"Clearly other countries that have similar external worries will be looked at
very closely. In the near-term all investors will put together those lists of
potential other casualties."

While Latin American markets were not necessarily facing the same
problems as Asia, there was pressure in the region. Analysts said the new
scrutiny on emerging markets came against the unhelpful backdrop in
global markets.

Merritt said central and eastern Europe was relatively immune.

"One of the primary rationales for building exposure to emerging Europe is
their low correlation to events in the developed world and other emerging
market blocs."

Seijiro Takeshita, director at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, said further turmoil
was expected because regulators did not know what they were doing.

"Market sensitivity is so high that incidents like this in south-east Asia could
trigger a worldwide decline in the equity market, which you are starting to
see right now."

(Fri Aug 29 1997 14:49)
India's banking system paralyzed by strike
Banks in India crippled in second day of

Copyright  1997
Copyright  1997 Reuter Information Service

BOMBAY ( August 29, 1997 09:28 a.m. EDT ) - India's banking system was
paralyzed Friday, the second day of a strike by bank workers.

Banking operations came to a virtual standstill across the country, with no
trades reported in the foreign exchange market. Money market dealers said
there were a few trades in government bonds for Saturday's value.

Clearing of checks was badly affected for the second day. The daily value
of clearing operations is estimated at 200 billion rupees.

More than 1.3 million public and private sector bank workers began the
two-day strike on Thursday mainly to protest a government decision to
allow the setting up of private banks in rural areas.

Other demands include implementation of a pension plan in private banks,
revision of wages for employees of rural banks which pay less than
state-owned banks in rural areas, a lifting of a ban on recruitment and
banning of non-banking finance companies from accepting deposits.

Bank officials said they were puzzled the union demands seemed to skirt
issues normally dear to union members - higher wages and resistance to
implementation of new technology.

"It looks like there is a hidden agenda," said a top executive of a
Bombay-based state-run bank. "Most members are not even aware of the
issues involved."

"It looks like a spillover of the friction within the ruling coalition and a clash
of the pro- and anti-reforms groups."

The ruling United Front comprises 15 parties ranging from the extreme left
to reformists such as finance minister P. Chidambaram.

"We are very much against the establishment of local area private banks
because it is not included in the common minimum programme of the
United Front Government," said Tarakeshwar Chakraborty, a spokesman
for the Forum of Bank Unions.

The Forum comprises nine bank unions.

Unions say they are opposed to the move to launch private banks in rural
areas as it will undermine the working of state-run banks in rural areas and
divert funds away from socially important but less profitable purposes.

"Union members are not very happy at the situation," said a bank official
who asked not to be named.

"They have lost three day's wages this year for reasons which they say do
not concern them directly."

The unions may also be trying to prevent an industry move towards
individual wage pacts by banks, one private banker said.

At present, unions and managements of state-owned banks negotiate an
industry-wide wage pact, which is also adopted by several private banks.

"Bank managements have recently started to press for individual
negotiations with unions," the private bank official said. "This will weaken
the unions greatly as they cannot then claim to represent the entire

Union leaders said they were please with the success of the strike and
preparing for future action.

"The strike is total everywhere, like yesterday," Chakraborty said.

He said the leaders of the nine bank unions would meet at the southern city
of Hyderabad on Sept. 4 to discuss further actions.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 14:49)
OK Strad, I agree with your post and respect the opinion of any "Skeptical Inquirer" subscriber ( as I also am ) . I did also make public an offer to Bart to post the origin of whomever posted in my name at several specified times but we'll let it go. Now as to Yellowjackets query, have you considered "Benguet" corp? Thay've taken sych a beating on so mych bad news th epast year that it's BOUND to be a good gamble at such a low price. And to ( was it Ron? ) question on whether the letters "RGL" mean anything to me. Hmmm "RallyGoldLooming"? or maybe "Run Goldbug Losers"? possibly "Real Goldbug Lurking"? bottom line, I don't know.....

(Fri Aug 29 1997 14:49)
NOMERCY: I love that post at 14:42. Notice how the professionals have changed their tune in just a few down days, not even 10% off the high. When was the last time someone mentioned "It's a new era"? The currency thing is starting to take its toll. But gold stays still.

George Cole
(Fri Aug 29 1997 14:51)
gold stocks sick
BB Fisher: Agree with you that the gold shares are due for another shakeout the next few weeks. The stocks are acting sick, sick, sick! Very low volume and they do not not move up with bullion. Kitcoites should have plenty of dry powder available!

Yellow Jacket
(Fri Aug 29 1997 14:57)
DONALD: Thanks, I'll check it out. I always do my own homework. Just looking for some new directions perhaps. My last buy was Durban Deep and I'm very happy with the returns.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 14:59)
Hep..... er, I mean LurkingGBug: Welcome ( back ) to our forum.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 15:00)

Where's the squelch button Bart?


(Fri Aug 29 1997 15:01)
Mexico - gov't bailout to cost $1bn
MEXICO CITY, Aug 29 ( Reuter ) - The Mexican government will have to pay at least $1 billion to clean up Banca Confia, the
troubled bank that is to be bought by Citibank ( CCI - news ) , the head of the Mexican Banking and Securities Commission said on

(Fri Aug 29 1997 15:04)
Brazil - continues 'daily' currency devaluation
SAO PAULO, Aug 29 ( Reuter ) - Brazil's Central Bank lowered its mini-band on the real currency on Friday by buying dollars at
1.0895 reais per dollar and selling at 1.0945 in the commercial foreign exchange market, dealers said.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 15:06)
Mexico peso
The benchmark 48-hour peso and its 24-hour counterpart were 1.5 and 2.6 centavos weaker, respectively, at 7.7790/7.7820 and
7.7710/7.7800 per dollar.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 15:25)
Ted Arnold -believe or not
Note: Wouldn't gold demand pick up as well if those 'rupee' devaluation rumours are true? And what if does?
Ted Arnold quote below:
`Indian ( silver ) demand is picking up quite strongly, we understand, as rumors grow about a possible 14-15 percent devaluation of
the rupee,'' Arnold said.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 15:30)
S&P500, Asia
S&P 500 crashing UP today, ( wouldn't want to be holding PUT options ) , what does this mean in the face of the Asian market bloodletting? Means our market must be stronger than we thought. More Bears than Bulls on Wall St. this week, also a good sign no crash is iminent.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 15:33)
Great views from above thanks to nomercy and Donald. Thanks for the global news filter, guys! Asia looks like a sink hole in Florida. All looks OK until one day everything just starts to receed into the ground. Our debt/bond way of life built a mountain and will form a pit. We, of course, are the biggest mountain of paper waiting to be tugged into collapse. Thoses sink holes don't just fall in. They granually, hourly, daily and weekly settle. Finally you've got a hole like a mine pit covering acres. Then they fill in with ground water. El Nino is just in time to fill this happening. Hope we can find our way to the edge before she fills. Good Weekend to all!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 15:34)

(Fri Aug 29 1997 15:44)
Tnx Ranji
I'm reposting your link

(Fri Aug 29 1997 15:52)
Brazil is the largest trading partner that Argentina has. These Brazilian devaluations may be hurting her. This story may give a clue.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 15:55)

I think that you have misidentified the species. The real Catman came with a full deck, he just dealt funny.

Spud Master
(Fri Aug 29 1997 15:57)
S&P 500 crashing down...
LurkingGBug - what are you smoking but not inhaling? Yer precious S&P 500 is going "OHFFF!" again and doubling over in pain. I think we should sell seats to your boot polishing of Puetz's hob-nail boots.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:10)
@LurkingGbug on S&P500, Asia
Well my Lurking friend, the problem with you that you make very strong
statements based on insufficient evidence.. S&P 500 crashing UP today?
Thats not what my information says about closing.
S&P 500 -4.19 ( -0.46% )
DJI -72.01 ( -0.94% ) .
No, thats no crash, and I dont think the crash will happen in one
day - itll be just slow sliding down and down.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:10)
Commitment of Traders Report - Aug.26
-------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
7,589 59,131 13,491 133,381 85,437 154,461 158,059 42,409 38,811

406 -4,461 -173 -6,921 796 -6,688 -3,838 1,902 -948

3.9 30.0 6.9 67.8 43.4 78.5 80.3 21.5 19.7

19 38 9 31 47 58 88

-------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
7,183 63,592 13,664 140,302 84,641 161,149 161,897 40,507 39,759

-6,835 -130 511 10,323 5,410 3,999 5,791 972 -820

3.6 31.5 6.8 69.6 42.0 79.9 80.3 20.1 19.7

16 39 10 35 44 60 86

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:11)
Yes thanks to the usual pattern of last minute sellers, but you'll notice that NASDAQ closed up about .4%. Hmmm, what do it mean? Meaooouuuu

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:11)
Thailand bailout was justified>

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:12)
Ranji -- Let's see if this works ( it didn't last time ) ;

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:14)
One last thought. What if 10 or 15 million US and European investors all of a sudden decided to add, say 5%, to their meager gold and silver holdings. If that were average of US$5,000 per investor then you've got US$50 billion jumping into those markets in a short time frame. At current prices that's approx demand of 152 million ounces of gold or 10.5 billion onces of silver or some ratio of these figures. Now THAT is quite a "vacuum", isn't it? Obviously prices will adjust to regulate demand. So let's posit a tripling of current London transactions to 90 thousand ounces per month meeting an increase of money approximately 10 to 20 times current flow ( approx US$10 million chasing 30,000 ounces last month ) . That gives an approximate multiple of 3 to 7 over today's prices ( US$1000 to US$2300 per ounce ) With a few more comments like Metz' we will see metals go into orbit. Having just returned from the outer reaches I can tell you that its free and clear. No crowding up there. ( My dealer hasn't known what to make of my buying since no one else was at that time. ) Since metal buying will be so new to so many I believe it will take people a bit of time to get their channels established, so there may be a lag. But watch out for that game of 'catch-up'.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:17)
Moi? make strong statements Miro? Never!! Now you do recall I'm in the sidelines at the moment waiting for the slide to hit 7100 or so before averaging back in, and buying a few Maples, Saints & Silver in the interim....bring on more declines!! Black Tuesday looms....

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:18)
Allen: Do you think that 10 or 15 million US and European investors
already have about $100 000 invested in gold and silver. You might be correct but where do you get that idea from?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:18)
FWIW department -- The late day 'sell-off' was attributed to the weakness ( ! ) in the S.E. Asian markets. Dow Jones reports that Vangard Index Trust 500 portfolio posted net OUTFLOWS. Dollar broke 120 Yen today.

Ranji -- I liked Metzs' comments on gold and silver. The URL I cut and pasted from your post seems to work. Metz says the bottom is in on gold and silver.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:24)
Year 2000 Ready for the Millennium? Your Banker Will Want to Know

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:24)
Brazil down 658 ( 5.84% ) , Mexico down 141 ( 2.94% ) , Venezuela down 165 ( 1.68% )

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:28)
Wall Street Superbull is worried!!!
Y2K Gives Pause to Wall Street "Superbull"
An economic guru predicts a 30 percent chance of world recession in the
Year 2000-and the Year 2000 may be one three reasons why. Dr. Edward
Yardeni is chief economist at international investment banking firm
Deutsche Morgan Grenfell. A recent feature in Barron's calls Yardeni a
"superbull," and says many of the economist's market forecasts have been
"startling in their prescience." Now this normally optimistic
forecaster sees possible trouble brewing. In a recent report titled New
Era Recession? Deflation, Irrational Exuberance, & Y2K, Yardeni says
the century date change issue is like one of the three witches in
Shakespeare's MacBeth, capable of real mischief in the new millennium.
"I now think there is at least a 30% chance of a worldwide recession in
the year 2000," he notes.

As the title of his report suggests, Yardeni is concerned about a trio
of economic harpies. "Deflation" refers to a state of affairs in which
companies are confronted by intense competition but weak sales.
Productivity gains can't backfill missing profits, so companies fire
workers and cut capital spending. Although Yardeni tends to downplay
the likelihood of a deflationary scenario, he notes that "the forces of
deflation when combined with the other two Forces of Darkness could be

"Irrational exuberance" is the second head on Yardeni's hydra.
Irrational exuberance suggests that the grasshopper has been right
along. Putting money into the stock market rather than flashy cars,
furniture and clothes could raise the ante for a negative wealth effect.
"Higher stock prices might depress consumer spending rather than boost
it if investors pour money into equity mutual funds at a faster rate,"
Yardeni speculates. Up goes stock prices. Down go consumption and GDP
growth. In steps the Federal Reserve. Up go interest rates. Down goes
the stock market. And here comes the recession.

Yardeni seasons his witches' brew with a chunk of salt. "Don't get me
wrong," he cautions, "The stock market isn't irrationally exuberant at
this point. I still expect it will move to 10,000 by 2000. The risk is
that it might get there much sooner. This would be fun on the way up.
But it could set the stage for a very nasty correction, maybe even a

And then there is the Year 2000 itself. Yardeni writes that he is
"disturbed" by what he has seen on Y2K, and the fact that more adherents
to the "long boom" view of the economy aren't aware of it. The
economist says that "most businesses will undoubtedly fix Y2K in time to
avoid an economy-wide disaster." But he adds, "some businesses might
fail, which would boost unemployment. If they are important vendors to
other companies, the domino effect could be disruptive enough to cause a

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:31)
Very interesting y2k report.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:33)
Still Here
Fundy - Just round numbers. I was figuring that 5% of US population have major assets and are major investors ( of course Europe adds considerably to this number ) . I don't know what people hold but believe that most portfolios are deficient in metals. 5% assets in metals was at one time considered a wise allocation. But I doubt that those portfolios are at that level. I was TRYING to be conservative with the numbers assuming that only minor adjustments would be needed to get those portfolios up to date. At US$5000 per, that's not alot to assume, do you think?

Anyway, I was just thinking outloud about shifting sentiment and how crowds of people doing even a small amount of wiggling really can tip things around. I don't know where the $100,000 figure came from. Did I put that in there? What's your thoughts on this?

George Cole
(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:33)
Ranji and Panda: Unfortunately Metz does not have a good record forecasting gold. He is better as a contrary indicator. Still looks like a final shakeout before goldbugs finally collect their 10 pounds of flesh from the carcasses of the paperbugs.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:39)
Flop @ afford goods
August 29, 1997

Emerging markets turmoil pose problems for U.S. economy

NEW YORK ( AP ) - Fresh turmoil in Southeast Asian financial markets could pose a threat to the U.S. economy by dampening business deals and trade in the lucrative region,

"If their economies flop . . . they won't be able to afford our goods."

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:42)

I agree with the wisdom in the essays of the KITCO Guru's, their logical approach is very reasonable.

Cannot agree with their gold price projections - except that it should be higher. How anyone can predict inflation or deflation seems impossible; as the credit producing power is in the hands of "the powerfull", and to do as they please; likely in their own interest's.

In any event, the news posts from Donald, Nomercy and Panda and "all of you" are excellent additions to the work of the Gurus.

I am a bit prejudiced toward extremely high PM prices, as if such occurred, my mine's might find it very difficult to sell their production, especially in a deflation. In a inflation, the situation would be one of confusion, that I believe no one could handle.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:42)
Recession possible in 2000? Surely. Y2K one of the culprits? Not a chance, won't even produce a ripple. Remember the great computer "virus" scares that were going to shut industry down?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:44)
SHEK, MIRO: All of our talk about Year 2000 has been from the American and Canadian perspective. Problems around the world are probably even worse because they used imported software packages and will not be able to solve it as easily as North Americans.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:45)
Lurkinggbug. No, I don't remember. What viruses are you talking of?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:49)
Allen: Sorry I read you wrong. I thought you meant there would be an increase of 5% in holdings and that would come to 5000 so I assumed you meant about 100 000 in precious metals already. Could happen as you describe. But the price may go way up with minimal sales. Gas went up about 40 cents a gallon in about 2 days in Canada this week and it didn't have much to do with demand it had to do with a long weekend and price fixing. So gold and silver may just shoot up in a similar manner --for different reasons of course.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:50)

Does anyone have any foreign-language gold/PM discussion URLs ( French, Spanish, Italian or Portuguese ) handy?

Thanks in advance.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:50)
Fundy - been up to the spit ( one the Nova side ) which sits out at the mouth to your bay. It is truly awesome. That water rushes like a river, either way. Didn't get a chance to see a reverse though. I tend to think in pictures and this situation is like your bay, to me; a real phenomenon waiting to happen. Alot of pent up energy waiting to SHIFT. And when it does it will be truly amazing, no?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:51)
Donald, I agree with you. European companies might as well forget fixing it. Only GB is doing anything, and they are WAY behind the USA.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:51)
AP/Reuters, New research indicates that the planetary alignment to occur in the year 2000, will cause widespread earthquakes, famines, flood, worldwide depression, a new and more intense El Nino, and possibly blood on the moon. In a related story, it has been discovered that Solar Eclipses are NOT in fact caused by the moon's orbital path, but instead caused by a Demonic being spreading across the heavens due to cyclic displeasure with Earthly inhabitants. VERY ominous. Sell stocks and Buy gold.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:51)
Donald, I too have been adding BGO all the way down after the Bre-X implosion knocked it down. It's acting really sick for a stock that has take-over written all over it. Do you suppose there's less there than they've been claiming?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:52)
Brazil-El Nino

TED--Appreciate the heads up on Rogers appearance on CNBC. Unfortunately, didn't get to see it. Did anyone here catch it? What did he have to say? Speaking of Brazil, check this out. El Nino called "ominous" for Brazil.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 16:56)
6PAK: Your post of 16:39 says those analysts are not worried yet. There must be literally thousands of business people who are wondering this weekend if they should go through with that deal in "Country of your Choice" or hold off until it sorts itself out. Or they are thinking, mabye we should close that account in "Country of your Choice" until things cool off. That is how depressions start. This one has already started and there is no way to stop it now. Confidence in getting paid has been lost. Things will move very fast from here.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:03)
One was named "Michelangelo" the other was...Ummmm ( can't remember the name now but it was April 1st 1996 that it was supposed to shut everything down and cause nationwide recession ) . There have been a few others. Y2K scare reminds me of all those overhyped media events.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:07)
@LurkingGBug on buying back
LurkingGBug: "I'm in the sidelines at the moment waiting for the slide
to hit 7100 or so before averaging back in" Geez, I thought you were
already buying back what DOW was coming up today ;- )
To be honest, Ill also put some money back when we reach 7000, but
Ill be out as soon as it comes up some 10%. I believe that around that
level itll turn South again.
Steve Puetz: I believe that we will see 35% decline but I dont believe
itll happen in 1997 - more like in 1998. OTOH, what do I know. With my
luck Ill buy back in and itll drop 35% next day ;- )

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:08)
S. Roach - Asia the Wild Card
Asia: The Asian Card

In my view, the Asian meltdown looms as the gravest threat to world capital markets in the 1990s. As I
see it, this crisis can no longer be viewed as a region-specific development. It has now reached the point
where it has the potential to trigger significant cross-border repercussions in the broader global economy
and world financial markets. The "house of cards" hasn't looked this precarious in ten years. Here's why.

For starters, non-Japan Asia accounts for about 23% of global GDP ( according to the 1996 purchasing
power parity metrics of the IMF ) . Excluding India and China -- two countries that do not seem to be
affected by the currency crisis -- the Asian weight in global GDP drops to 7.3%. By way of comparison,
the US and Europe each account for 21% of global GDP, whereas Latin America accounts for 9% and
Japan another 8%. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Asian impact on global trade is considerably
smaller than its GDP weight might imply; in 1996, the region as whole accounted for 7.3% of total global
trade in goods and services ( 4.3% if India and China are excluded ) . Bottom line: This troubled region
does not account for an outsized portion of real activity in the global economy.

Even so, Japan is likely to be most affected by any growth shortfall in Asia -- an observation well
supported by a renewed weakening in the yen, another decline in the Nikkei, and further recent gains in
the Japanese government bond market. Japan's banking system is heavily exposed to increasingly shaky
Asian borrowers, and its trade flows are skewed disproportionately to its neighbors. Indeed, our
estimates suggest that Asian trade accounts for fully 40% of total Japanese merchandise trade ( exports
and imports, combined ) . By contrast, Europe is likely to be least affected, with Asia accounting for only
about 9% of its total trade. The United States is somewhere in the middle, with about 23% of its total
merchandise trade going to Asia.

The Asian-US linkage can be broken down into two dimensions -- the first being its impact on the real
economy. Asia currently accounts for about 20% of total US merchandise exports, whereas total goods
exports account for 8% of nominal US GDP -- implying that exports to Asia account for about 1.6% of
total US GDP. That delineates the worst-case impact scenario on the US economy: If Asian domestic
demand were to evaporate into thin air and our exports to that region were to drop to "zero," then US
GDP would contract by 1.6 percentage points. Obviously, the actual outcome is likely to fall considerably
short of that magnitude. Our current growth forecast for non-Japan Asia calls for 6.8% GDP growth in
1998, even after allowing for a much-weaker-than consensus -1.5% drop in Thailand; that represents a
slowing of about 1.5 percentage points from the average gains of 8.3% that occurred over the 1993-96
interval. As a result, I would place the US GDP impact of the Asian growth shortfall in the 0.25 to 0.5
percentage point range for 1998 -- not trivial, by any means, but hardly enough to defuse the inflationary
pressures of an otherwise rapidly growing and still fully-employed US economy. In short, an Asian
growth shortfall should not be interpreted as a major deflationary event for the United States.

More important is a potential capital market effect. Two countervailing forces are at work. First, there is
the "safe haven" effect that could see global investors rush into dollar-denominated assets as a hedge
against increased risk and instability in Asia. Offsetting, however, could be a potential reduction of Asian
purchases of US securities, as the region's "excess liquidity" gets redirected back home in order to shore
up the weakened balance sheets of an increasingly precarious banking system. On that count, the
impacts could be quite significant on the US Treasury market -- the preferred American asset of choice
for most Asian investors. According to US Treasury statistics, just five Asian countries -- Japan,
Singapore, China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong -- account for 13.9% ( or $473 billion ) of total private holdings
of Treasury securities ( as of May 31, 1997 ) . Putting it another way, these same five Asian countries
have accounted for fully 40% of the incremental growth in foreign holdings of Treasuries that has
occurred since the end of 1994, a period that marks the most rapid run-up of foreign capital inflows into
the Treasury market on record. Should these Asian outflows start to wane -- a distinct possibility as
domestic liquidity needs intensify in the region's distressed banks -- then the Treasury market could well
lose its largest incremental buyer, and the yield structure in US fixed income markets would back up

All in all, there can be no mistaking the perils to world financial markets posed by the Asian crisis. While
its impact on the real side of the US economy seems small, that is not the case in Japan, where an
increasingly shaky financial system is now being exposed to yet another in a long string of systemic risks.
Moreover, to the extent that Asian investors ( the Japanese included ) have played a key role in pumping
excess liquidity into financial markets elsewhere in the world, there is a growing risk that those flows
could now diminish. In my view, that could well be the destabilizing event that puts the whole house of
cards into play.

Stephen Roach ( New York )

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:08)
Yellow Jacket,

For gold stocks I like Mirimar Gold which is selling under the value of cash on hand, Eldorado, Euro Nevada, Franco Nevada, Vista Gold. I got these from a stock letter I receive but I think that they are a great value. Have a nice weekend.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:13)
TO: Lurkinggbug
Viruses are are intentionally delivered to systems in order to create a havoc. They are fairly easy to defend against. Bugs are inherent in systems, and some like y2k, very difficult ( time and money ) to correct.
Think of it this way:
Viruses = common cold
Bugs, especially y2k bug = genetic disease ( must be cured by January 1999 or it will kill the patient )

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:13)
@the scene
Donald, 6pak -- I too concur. Can't put the evil 'genie' back in the bottle before he trashes the place. It is loosed and is going forth! Anything not yet happening here is a temporary lull and this time would be well spent in getting prepared!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:14)
Donald @16:56
I see this unfortunate situation as you do. Such a tragedy. eh !
On a positive note, once the world nations get through this debt swamp,
there will exist a quality future, built on less economic quick sand.
Take care.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:14)
To all:

Just another silly question: under what circumstances would Mutual Fund companies be allowed to take advantage of the disclaimer stating that "It is expected that the Fund will always be valued at $1 per share, although this cannot be guaranteed." attached to all those safe ( by traditional wisdom ) Money Market Funds? Has such an adjustment ever happened?

Thanks again

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:14)
CARL: Bema has taken special pains to provide a level of comfort about the test results. That is unlikely to be a problem. I will quote from the July 22, 1997 issue of Silver and Gold Report. "BGO, Takeover candidate. There is little doubt in my mind that this company is going to generate substantial returns to investors. Here's why: Bema is sitting on 27.4 million ounces of gold in Chile. Plus, a recent engineering report confirms that gold can be comercially produced at around $100 per ounce. Right now, 20 major companies are looking at the company. I wouldn't be surprised to see a takeover before year-end. Currently trading at 5 1/2, I expect Bema to go for at least $15 a share in a takeover. Buy on dips below $6."

There has been a Chilean Senator who is talking about legislation to cut the government in on all mining projects, not just gold. That could be a problem. Bema has a web site.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:19)
A little something for everyone in this story.

There's that 'magic' number again, TEN percent. Also, that most interesting word, "Illiquid", was mentioned with regards to the market today. Funny, I think I know that word. ( :-0

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:21)
Good analogy, however, the worlds most brilliant minds have 2 full years to work the problem, are working it as we speak, and will have solved it long before the date in question. After all, we did just put a rover on MARS by landing it within a bunch of airbags! ( No KITCOites, the MARS landing was NOT, I repeat NOT a phony staged event pulled off by Govt. NASA conspirators...Area 51 notwithstanding! )

If they can make affordable home PC's that simultaneously crunch massive EXCEL files, download charts from the WEB, and play "DOOM" all at the sime time....SURELY you don't worry about YK2!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:21)
STRAD MASTER: Your 14:17 is well said. Maybe if LGB is as smart as we both think possible he will find the experience here to be a fine learning experience in civil communication. At 71 I am still studying the art. I just cannot believe Steve Puetz would post for anyone else.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:25)
Donald, Thanks for the info on Bema. note, they don't own the whole find, but own a portion of the company they share it with. I don't remember the %'s, but I did the math and their share I think comes to about 17 million ounces of gold. There's presumably also several billion pounds of copper at the site. It's going to take someone really big to take it out, if it really is on the up and up. Maybe ABX, I've been thinking.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:26)
Y2k and virus - no comparison
LurkingGbug: virus ( like famous Michalangelo thread ) is pretty much
easy and prevent. It is the outside "attack" and you can set up the
proper protective mechanism to avoid it. Y2K is deeply embedded in
most of the software running today's companies and financial systems.
I am getting tired of the same scenario over and over. You talk to CIO's
and CEO's and the initial discussions are "we think we are OK, we use
new technology, our staff is looking into it, but just to be sure we
want you to look into it" When you present the results from initial
analysis, with detailed examples to prove that there is the problem and
how bad it is, the reaction is "Oh my God, I never thought it could be
so bad. How can we possible fix it in such a short time and how will we
pay for it?"
Mind you that I work for non-for-profit organization and have no
financial interest to overstate the problem. I am not Y2K vendor
selling the solution and programmer bodies.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:28)
I posess no absolute proof, just deductive analysis based on the way events unfolded. Certaily Bart has my permission to tell us all publicly who it was that posted under my handle at 23:14,19,23,26,29,31,33 last evening. However, as I said to STRAD, I do agree that unsubstantiated accusations are out of line when absolute proof is lacking, I apologize for same, will not repeat the transgression, and have re-extended my wager proposition to Mr. Puetz ( who seems to be hiding today ) .

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:33)
I have every confidence MIRO, that you'll be instrumental in being one of the many who solves the Y2K problems long before they occur, thus preventing any substantive effect on our economy.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:34)

The bastards have been able to hold this house of cards together quite well, for many years.

I dont admire them, because when their manure hits the fan, everyone will suffer.

Probably the dollar will still be the currency of choice?
The resulting US taxes to pay foreigners interest on their US Governments will make the recent budget reduction even a bigger JOKE, just as previous attempts were.

When the dollar really falls, look out below.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:35)

The bastards have been able to hold this house of cards together quite well, for many years.

Probably the dollar will still be the currency of choice?
The resulting US taxes to pay foreigners interest on their US Governments will make the recent budget reduction even a bigger JOKE, just as previous attempts were.

When the dollar really falls, look out below.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:36)
PANDA: Illiquid: what you get when you puke. Next year the "plethora of vacationing Wall Streeters" will be staying at the Jones Beach Econolodge.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:47)
LAZARUS: That $1.00 price has been violated once or twice in my investing lifetime. As I recall the mutual fund industry was so worried about a loss of confidence they all contributed pro rata to a bailout. If it were a worldwide wholesale collapse you would get whatever was available. If you stay with a T-Bill account, no repros, like Capital Preservation Fund I ( not fund II which allows repros ) you have little to worry about. If you are a Canadian this may not apply to you and I don't know how to answer.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:51)
Wow, you posted the warning TWICE so I REALLY am taking it to heart! Those damned Govt. consirators, foisting these worthless paper profits off on me all these years. I'm gonna take all these stock profits and buy land in Idaho, THEN let's see what they do to try and keep pumping that phony funny money. Hold on, wait a sec. I see some Black choppers outside and.....arrgghhhh,.......

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:53)

This not an intention to belittle Bema. Whoever buys the property, will have huge costs ahead of it. With todays gold price, things look so/so.
Their Refugio property needed help from Amax and Amax neded the support of Cypress/Amax to get it into production. The gold price was looking better when that decision was made.
Many properties with good potential, lie dormant, until the cost equation becomes positive.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:57)
Ted: Please explain why you said CDE and SSC gave a sell signal.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 17:59)
Explorer, what do you think of Benguet at it's current price? A bargain or a dog?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 18:05)
EXPLORER: Thank you for your Bema opinion. If the $100 per ounce figure is accurate that would not seem to be a problem unless the market price goes down toward $100. Do you dispute the $100 per ounce production cost?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 18:07)
sell signal
Ted: Were you just being flip because LGB said he was tempted to buy them?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 18:09)
That was indeed his motivation in giving the "sell" signal, making me a contrary indicator! HOW ever, I think that's as valid an anlytical model as solar eclipses ( Puetzke's advice ) don't you?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 18:15)
Dow/Gold Ratio 23.52 This has been a good week for the ratio but we are not "safe" yet. Our first level of comfort is a 23.22 close.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 18:18)

Never really followed Philippine stocks. Only recall that many years ago it was highly touted. I keep away from touted stocks.
I feel better chances may be with money makers like, Prime Resources Group ( PRU ) and Richmont Mines ( RIC ) and maybe Viceroy Resources ( t.voy ) ?
More speculative would be Vengold ( VENGF ) they own about 8.5% of Lihir Gold abd have good management.
All except for Vengold have production in the Western Hemisphere, Vengold's Lihir interests are in New Guinea, but that ore body is huge.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 18:31)
Thanks Explorer, Benguet had 0 volume today ( talk about illiquidity ) and is currently at 5/16. When I last owned it in 1987, it was trading at 10+ Not real fine performance eh?

Good weekend all, I'll ne back to lurking now for a week or two after the healthy "pot stirring" of the past couple days. I know some folks will be disappointed that I'm back to "Lurk" status. Got some steaks on the Barbie, anyone want a Sam Addams? ( Gone till the urge to stir strikes again someday, the Lurking one..... )

PS, The phony poster using my handle last evening ( who shall remain nameless ) can have at my handle again now, or any other loonie who wants to use it, all yours for now but remember, the REAL LGB will be watching you from the shadows!!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 18:35)

Donald, just from experience I found that feasibility study costs vary widely from the real thing. If a major like PDG or Homestake gave A $100 per oz. cost opinion, I would feel better about it. I hope it is right and Bema makes a big move.
Like Refugio, the mine is in the high mountains and may exerience problems other than the gold price. Also copper is not acting well - If Asian demand falls; who knows where its price will go.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 18:47)
Strad ( 14:17 ) : A terrific turn at bat. Your response is thoroughly in keeping with your elevated position on the scale of humanity. In short: A gentleman's light can never be hidden under a bushel. ...... Lesser lights are lost in thimbles.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 18:49)
Spud Master: You gave me a good laugh. You win the award for best idea of the day. Here's one modification to your idea. After the developing stock market crash is completed, we have the much-talked about Kitco bash. The feature attraction is Lurking Gbug polishing my shoes ( I vow not to polish them between now and October -- they are getting awfully scuffy ) , and bowing down and offering his mea culpas. When finished, I expect a spit-shine as sharp as required by the Army.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 18:49)
Gold @ Chile
Thursday, August 28, 1997

Chile: A Special Report
For The Financial Post

El Indio ignites gold rush

Chile set to join ranks of the world's top 10 gold producers after a series of major finds, many of
which are situated along a 175-kilometre-long corridor in the central part of the country

Chile will produce more than 69 tonnes of gold in 2000, a 32% increase over 1996
levels and a 79% gain over 1994 production, according to projections by the Chilean
Copper Commission, Cochilco.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 18:53)
Lurking Gbug: Sorry, but I haven't been posting under your handle or anyone else's. If there's any way Bart Kitco can confirm this, I would appreciate it. Lurking Gbug, would you be willing go go under the same examination of weather or not all of your postings were made by you?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 18:58)
Today's market action continues to confirm the likelihood of a stock market crash. I will discuss this more over the long week-end. For now, it's friday night football. 15th ranked ( Class 3A ) West Lafayette hosts Southmont. I may check in around mid-night. See ya' later.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 18:59)
LurkingGB: I was in my credit union the other day and they were running a notice to this effect...all social security checks received after 1/1/98 will be electronically direct deposited only...this particular credit union is not located in Idaho...are all banks, etc. jumping on the bandwagon or is this an isolated thing. You seem to have the comnspiracy theories all sorted out so I defer to you. My curiousity stems from the following: if this is nationwide, then will this at some point be expanded to cover such things as cashing out brokerage accounts? or other semi- gov't regulated transactions. Maybe not black choppers but certainly meddlesome.

Gene: What is the scoop on FN/EN? I have been trying to research these two but the information is very thin. They don't seem to be too interested in investors...I couldn't find a website.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 19:05)

Donald, just from experience I found that feasibility study costs vary widely from the real thing. If a major like PDG or Homestake gave A $100 per oz. cost opinion, I would feel better about it. I hope it is right and Bema makes a big move.
Like Refugio, the mine is in the high mountains and may exerience problems other than the gold price. Also copper is not acting well - If Asian demand falls; who knows where its price will go.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 19:05)
@ The Public Library:
Stephen Kaplan's opening comments today in his daily Gold Mining Outlook site includes a nice summary of the effect of the currency devaluation taking place in the Asian countries. His URL is

(Fri Aug 29 1997 19:15)
Auric ( 16:52 ) You didn't miss much as Jimmy kept playing up the potential chaos caused by El Nino and some meteorologist keep saying this El Nino was being over-rated as to the problems it could create...BORING...Auroelf ( 18:07 ) YES!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 19:16)
@the scene
LurkingGbug -- You crack me up!

Bart -- Where's that squelch button?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 19:17)
EXPLORER: The Bema find is in a very remote location. It was shut for 12 days a few weeks ago due to impassible snow. The only way in or out was by heliocopter. I have owned the company since 1991? I sold out a few days after the big discovery and am back in at about US$5.59 average.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 19:22)
Evening Puetz! Hope yer son's team wins tonight!...even if you are WRONG about the comming stock market CRASH....and even if it does I'm ready the answer to a great garden....

(Fri Aug 29 1997 19:28)
@the scene
Donald -- Your 'puking' comment about sums it up for illiquidity! HAR!

Panda -- Maybe 'this time' will be different; It'll go down with no real rebounds, and do it fast! Nah. Got to keep 'em snookered. Better to use the slow burner approach and keep them in there until they are 'cooked'! Either way, they'll be cooked.

Chicken Little
(Fri Aug 29 1997 19:32)
The Dow is Falling
The Dow is Falling The Dow is Falling The Dow is Faaaaaahf

(Fri Aug 29 1997 19:34)
Asian crisis: Brunei action seen to calm


By James Kynge in Kuala Lumpur and Philip Coggan in London

Reported intervention by the sultanate of Brunei, whose ruler is reputed to
be the world's richest man, helped restore some composure to south-east
Asia's embattled currencies yesterday. But regional stock markets had
another difficult day.

The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong fell 5 per cent after Thursday's 4 per
cent decline. The Indonesian market slid by nearly 7 per cent, its biggest
one-day fall. There were signs of many international investors withdrawing
funds on fears about economic strength and currency stability.

Fears of higher local interest rates contributed to the fall in Hong Kong,
one of Asia's strongest performing markets this year. Tokyo's Nikkei 225
average dropped 1.2 per cent, reflecting problems that slowing Asian
growth would cause the Japanese economy.

The Asian markets turmoil continued to affect Europe. The FTSE 100
index in London dropped 27.9 to 4,817.5 and the CAC 40 in Paris fell 2
per cent. Wall Street had early losses but rebounded.

Currency dealers said they noticed the heavy presence of the Brunei
Investment Agency buying Malaysian and Singapore dollars in an unusual
move by the oil-rich state, which counts the two countries as its closest

Both currencies recovered from historic lows against the US dollar after
the intervention. The Malaysian currency reached M$2.8630 against the
US dollar from of M$2.9650 before drifting down again to M$2.9030.
The Singapore dollar recovered to S$1.4960 from a 38-month low of
S$1.5375. It slipped again later. Dealers estimated the cost of
interventions by Brunei at hundreds of millions of US dollars.

In Thailand, a source of the problems, stocks fell for the 11th consecutive

(Fri Aug 29 1997 19:37)
Donald: Per your's: "Next year the "plethora of vacationing Wall Streeters" will be staying at the Jones Beach Econolodge."

Reminds me of a comment by Jim Rodgers in Dec 96. He said: "Enjoy Christmas, because next year ( 97 ) there isn't going to be a Christmas." ...... Micheal Metz and Jim Rodgers, love them both dearly but as GSC mentioned earlier, they do tend to be contrary indicators. Especially, Metz on gold. Sigh! Guess the only true light remaining is LBG.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 19:42)
@Updates Are Us
Latest from the VE/Headline News - If you like PDG, maybe you should not read this...

(Fri Aug 29 1997 19:49)
U.S. Stocks Fall, Concluding Worst Month in Seven Years
U.S. stocks fell, concluding their worst month in seven years, on concern that Coca- Cola Co. and other big stocks that led the
market's surge to records are too expensive given their earnings prospects. Small and computer-related stocks rose. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average fell 72.01 to 7622.42, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 4.19 to 899.48. For the
month, the Dow dropped 7.3 percent and the S&P 500 lost 5.7 percent, the worst month for both since August of 1990, a
recession year. Big stocks such as Procter & Gamble, Merck & Co., McDonald's Corp., Gillette & Co. and Coca-Cola Co.
all fell more than 10 percent during August.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 19:50)
total LUNER eclipse...LUNER!
He said "LUNER"! Moon...NOT Sun...C'mon Hepcat/Swampthing/Capone/LGB/

Happy loong Weekend all laborers!



oh'll be lurking AND posting, I GUARANTEE!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 20:00)
Ding Ding

(Fri Aug 29 1997 20:04)
Does anyone know where I can find hourly charts of DOW?

(Fri Aug 29 1997 20:05)
Federal Reserve Bank Conference schedule "Monetary Stability"

(Fri Aug 29 1997 20:05)
Anyone else "out there" hate three day weekends????

(Fri Aug 29 1997 20:05)
Where did my hero LGB go? I thought he made a lot of sense. He has a good sense of humor. SteveP I believe he already said in a earlier post that he wanted Bart Kitner to post whoever it was that was posting in his handle last night and he gave the times. Did you guys ever make your bet or what? When I read back it looks like you backed out.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 20:07)
You in big trouble!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 20:16)
Alan Greenspan comments on currency crisis

Bill G
(Fri Aug 29 1997 20:20)
Music to Me, Oil(as they pronoune it in Brooklyn
Your comments re Stradmaster's eloquence are seconded, and apply as well to you! Thanks for being there!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 20:20)
Alan Greenspan mentions gold.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 20:32)
@Wall Street Week
Loooouie is on....

(Fri Aug 29 1997 20:36)
Thanks Donald

Free Market at work:

``Governments, including central banks, have been given certain responsibilities ... that must be balanced,'' Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told economists and government officials gathered here for a conference.
``We have the responsibility to prevent major financial market disruptions through development and enforcement of prudent regulatory standards and, if necessary in rare circumstances, through direct
intervention in market events,'' he added.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 20:38)
@Wall Street Week
I knew IT...he got in a bad word for gold in his "opening"...."and gold sank another couple of bucks" what else do ya expect...

(Fri Aug 29 1997 20:50)
George Cole is right. Metz is never on target for metals or for the market. He has been talking crash for years.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 20:59)
the zones of subduction have created another
el nino' that will re-write the books for
the record keepers. there is much to be said
for nature and the laws of physics relevant
to mans' position in the cosmos. the cosmic debris ( frank zappa )
is free-floating and superfluous. the yellow snow where
the huskies go, awaits the sleepwalkers and their
7 year bull.

dec gold is in one tight-ass channel! what to do? how to
play? buy at the break-out, sell at the break-down, with
tight stops, all-the-while buying long-term options for ( calls ) ( 400 strike ) $30. to $50. each.

the silver spirit has rumbled to life ( again ) . when will the
gilded one begin the triumphal journey up the massive mountain?
the time is well nigh, for the metals train, to ride on high!

ted---woooo, woooooo, woooooo------------------

(Fri Aug 29 1997 21:03)
The guy with the George Washington hair let them use the "D" word on his show.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 21:05)
How ya doin me smokin buddy$

(Fri Aug 29 1997 21:09)
More insights on the Fed Meeting at Jackson Hole, Wyo.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 21:12)
Hello all gold bugs!

(Fri Aug 29 1997 21:16)
EARL: These folks think Jimmy Rogers got it right about Christmas '97

(Fri Aug 29 1997 21:25)
South Korea down 11 ( 1.58%0, Taiwan down 151 ( 1.54% )
These markets trade a half-day on Saturday

(Fri Aug 29 1997 21:26)
One day I'm Bullish and the next day I'm Bearish. This is not good but the data coming across is very conflicting and the markets gyrations reflect all this. At this point I'm turning more Bullish on Gold and more bearish on stocks than I was before. I can easily see a rally in the first half of Sept in the stock market but then a larger move down after that coinciding with a large move up in gold.I'll be viewing my charts and data this weekend but one of the reasons I was bearish on Gold has turned bullish recently. If only crude oil would turn UP I would feel much better. $25.00 crude oil would do wonders to the out look for Gold.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 21:29)
TED: 3 day weekends were fine until I retired. This is the last one with tourists so that makes it a little better.

Strad Master
(Fri Aug 29 1997 21:33)
Catching up!
AURIC, EB, GOLDBUG23, OLIVER, EARL, & BILL G: Auric: Thanks for the weird site. I wrote to them regarding finding that movie. If I ever do find it, I'll bring it with to the Kitco bash.
EB: Hope you can make it Sunday. I'll bet, your girlfriend will enjoy it, too!
Goldbug23, Oliver, Earl, and Bill G: You are all really sweet. Thanks somuch for for the kind and touching words.
Well...I'm shutting down 'til Saturnday night. See y'all later.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 21:36)
Foreign funds pour in
Multinationals cash in on new
area's potential

MAJOR international companies are pouring investments
into Pudong New Area, which only a few years ago was
nothing more than a forgotten land in the vast metropolis of
The Chinese Government opened Pudong to overseas
investors in 1990, and investors from more than 60
countries and regions have since invested more than $23
billion in the area.
Seventy-two of the top 500 international companies have
invested in Pudong, and a number of international giants
which have moved their head quarters or regional
headquarters there.
Many foreign businessmen feel that Pudong has the
greatest potential of all of the nation's special economic
development zones and will play a role as a bridge
between the Chinese and world economies.
According to local government sources, the municipal
government has invested more that 30 billion yuan ( $3.6
billion ) for infrastructure in Pudong to improve the
investment environment. Simple procedures make it
possible for companies to complete registration formalities
in no more than 10 days.
The central government has granted Pudong a series of
preferential policies, especially in terms of foreign capital
and foreign trade.
Local officials from the area's Administrative Committee
say Pudong has entered a mew stage which involves
establishing industrial zones in different sections, rather than
simply building infrastructure.
Four sub-zones have taken shape - Lujiazui Finance and
Trade Zone, Jinqiao Export Processing Zone, Waigaoqiao
Free Trade Zone, and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park.
The fact that dozen foreign banks have received approval
to be engaged in renminbi business on a trial basis is seen
as a major break through in the opening-up process of the
country's financial sector.
A number of high-tech projects have been established in
the Jinqiao and Zhangjiang zones, with Waigaoqiao
emerging as a modern foreign trade port which integrates
trade with shipping.
According to official sources. Pudong will enter a new
round of investment and construction over the next few
years, with some 100 billion yuan ( $12 billion ) to be spent
on the construction of a new international airport, subways,
new deep-water ports and information net works.
Local experts note that Pudong will continue to improve its
infrastructure. They predict that the area will attract even
more overseas funds over the next few years.
( Xinhua )

(Fri Aug 29 1997 21:41)
Donald ( @ Albania ) : They certainly do. Interesting to note; their first approach to improvement of per capita income is to raise bureaucrats salaries by 25-30%. No doubt, by printing additional scrip. ....... If only the pyramids had worked. Eh? .... Perhaps greater success would have been realized, had they called them the DOW Industrials.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 21:42)
Stocks are in your basic roller coaster ride!

George Cole
(Fri Aug 29 1997 21:44)
Glenn: This is one of those rare instances where we agree on the outlook. I too see gold moving up later in September after a final shakeout during the first half. Very low gold stock volume quite bearish short-term.

I suspect October will be a very good month for gold and a very bad month for stocks. That is when we should get the long-awaited upside breakpout.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 21:44)
Evening Donald.....Yeah,one does change their views on three day weekends after are very isolated here from tourists and in five years have never seen anyone walking along the ocean in front of our house and actually our economy can use all the visitors it can get...All things considered those aren't very big losses in South Korea+ Taiwan but Sunday night might be another story...

(Fri Aug 29 1997 21:51)
Does anyone know ......

OK, Haven't heard it a second time so maybe my ears were playing tricks again ( old age and all eh Earl! ) .... BUT I heard on CNBC from lovely Sue dear , that Mr. Greenspan had said at a speaking engagement today that the Fed and Govt. have the RIGHT / OBLIGATION to step in and CONTROL / ASSIST if the markets reach any type of chaos state. In other words, they'll avoid the crash by changing any / all of the rules as we know them for the common good ! NOW ....

Was it just me or did anyone else hear it or know about it?


(Fri Aug 29 1997 21:52)
Donald ( @ Pudong ) : I'm beginning to feel somewhat deprived and disadvanted by not having a large scale map of China pinned up on the wall. ..... Since it would not clash with my taste in 'wall art', the problem will be rectified forthwith. ..... Then I can begin collecting 'special calendars' by region.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 21:58)
Well George, since you have been hot lately, tell me all you can about your outlook for Crude Oil.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 22:03)
AG said "responsibility"

(Fri Aug 29 1997 22:07)
All (Yet again)

OK, The ears work fine but the eyes are failing. Thanks Shek and Donald for making sure the items were posted. So, my guess is that there's not going to be a crash . Maybe a little more correction to eliminate the "irrational exhuberance" but not a crash . It will be contained the same way the Hunts were contained. Through EDICT !



Yellow Jacket
(Fri Aug 29 1997 22:09)
stock picks
GENE: Thanks. It made me take a good second look at Vista.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 22:12)
George S Cole -- Is not September the 'cruelest' month for stocks, statistically? Also, could the low volume in mining shares simply be due to a lack of interest? "Never short a dull market", comes to mind here, but then again, one must be able to SELL a stock before they can sell it short!

Yellow Jacket
(Fri Aug 29 1997 22:16)
Does anyone know where online I could get a database with daily ( preferred ) or weekly COMEX gold close prices for 1997? I'm not looking for a chart, but rather for the tabulated numerical values.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 22:24)
TED -- Did you notice that Loui Rukeyser was not looking like a happy camper tonight? Did you notice that most of his 'guests' made mention of the 'Asian currency turmoil'? Even on the Nightly Business Report, the Asian currency 'thing' is getting more play. The Mexican stock market decline is being blamed on Asian currency problem along with the German Buba decision. Is it me? Maybe I should just buy Intel stock, and say the hell with it! After all, don't they have those dancing, space suited, engineers? :- ) )

I think those face sheilds are gold plated, aren't they? :- ) )

George Cole
(Fri Aug 29 1997 22:31)
crude oil
Glenn: In all candor I have not been following the oil situation that closely of late. I outsmarted myself in this sector. My crude price projections have been very good. But because of that I missed much of the big move in oil stocks. I did not realize until too late how far these could go with crude at $20.

In the past oil stocks and especially oil service stocks have moved with oil prices. But this time was different. The energy stocks have surged because of mergers and improved drilling technology in the oil services sector. Finding costs have come down a lot, so we now get much more drilling at activity at $20 crude than we did a decade ago.

So because I accurately projected a year ago that crude was not going any place for a while, I got out of the stocks much too early. We live and we learn. Just goes to show that investors must know the WHOLE picture.

With the energy stocks as elevated as they are, I have stopped following this sector. Will resume when valuations become more reasonable.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 22:35)
contrarian sounds . . .

I have previously posted as to the need for gold to go lower, equities to go higher, simply to create the scenario I felt was needed for some serious trend changes to occur.

Hmmmm . . . goldbugs waning, the DOW expected to reach new highs after this small correction, "perhaps some movement in October," you guys might well be providing the ultimatate contrarian indicator. While I still lean towards my "preferred" scenario playing out, the sounds heard here seem to make it ripe for an emminent reversal - - In both the equities market and gold.

Common sense tells me that there's a few more plays to set the stage properly, but you have me wondering . . . How close are we . . . ? Have I been listening to Puetz too much?

"Still Observing . . ."


(Fri Aug 29 1997 22:35)
contrarian sounds . . .

I have previously posted as to the need for gold to go lower, equities to go higher, simply to create the scenario I felt was needed for some serious trend changes to occur.

Hmmmm . . . goldbugs waning, the DOW expected to reach new highs after this small correction, "perhaps some movement in October," you guys might well be providing the ultimatate contrarian indicator. While I still lean towards my "preferred" scenario playing out, the sounds heard here seem to make it ripe for an emminent reversal - - In both the equities market and gold.

Common sense tells me that there's a few more plays to set the stage properly, but you have me wondering . . . How close are we . . . ? Have I been listening to Puetz to much?

"Still Observing . . ."


(Fri Aug 29 1997 22:37)
Yeah.I noticed Louie seemed a little down ...."dog days of summer" he called em....Currency markets do seem to be dictating equity markets these days and one has to wonder when this downward spriral in Asia will end....High winds + rain at the moment....thankx fer sending it up our way!

George Cole
(Fri Aug 29 1997 22:43)
Panda: Many years of investment experience has taught me that persistent low volume is usually bearish, as it signals an absence of buyers at current price levels.

I don't short dull markets but I don't buy them either. Once gold stock volume picks up significantly I suspect that higher prices will follow very shortly. But as long as volume is dead, quotations probably will continue to drift lower.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 22:56)
Well, its off again. This time to Ind, Ohio, St Louis, Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and then home. Will be gone for three weeks. Am looking forward to meeting "John C" in Ft Wayne Ind. a fellow Kitcoite.

LurkingGBug, I will take you up on your offer. Since Bart does not want to hold the wagers, you mail me your check & I will mail you mine ( promise promise promise ) .

Is your check in the mail yet???? ( Grin )

I will keepon lurking via laptop, love the wit & wisdom on here.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 23:15)
Bill: When ya commin to Cape Breton???

Steve - Perth
(Fri Aug 29 1997 23:15)
Mr Yen sounds the alarm...

BTW, why are a few lurkers getting nasty lately. If you don't agree
with what you read, say so, but don't get nasty about it.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 23:44)
..... Away - to the weekend .....

Tom from Ohio @ 9:22

Any sale by you of a reportable commodity must be reported, even one ounce.

The Chinese Panda had a few problems with counterfeiting a few years back and, ever since then, has fallen out of favor of gold investors. Ive bought a few from clients over the years, I think they are pretty. When it comes to owning gold, I will always choose the path of least resistance at the lowest price. I like the Austrian VP for that purpose. As for platinum, I think the Platinum American Eagle will give the Platinum Maple Leaf a serious run for top spot. In 2 years, if the USM stays committed to the PAE, it will be the top selling platinum coin in the world, it sure is atractive; I particularly like the asymmetrical design. Also, the USM is planing to change at least one face of the PAE every year, that will keep the collectors coming back.


I pick up the dart gauntlet and now your girlfriend has plans?????????????????????
A lesser man would assume your dart prowess has been overstated.
Not me

Away.To press the Armani shorts.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 23:46)
Good newsletter analysis a Makes sense and sounds a little like agree w/GSC. Thoughts anyone. A good read and thx to onyx for the sight yesterday. Nite all you to Ted.

(Fri Aug 29 1997 23:50)
Sorry site was a must read for the gold bulls and stock market bears including Vronsky ,Peutz GSC and TED..

(Fri Aug 29 1997 23:57)
The market continues down and two months ago there were Robert Rubin resignation rumors which I am sure he planted for cover. 64K question? What will be the big negative headline still hid or under emphasized from the public which will justify the meltdown? Winner gets a two week all expense paid vacation in Cape Breton with a boat trip to Scatterie island.