I say again...anyone out there have an evaluation on franco-nevada ( tse:fn ) ? It seems like an intersting concept for a company but being a novice in analysing companies of that sort...any help would be appreciated.

This week's channel chart confirms what we all are feeling. Times, they are a changin'.

Silver has definitely broken out of its nasty downward channel. Where is it going now?

Platinum also broke through the bottom of the channel, not far, but it may be indicating the rate of increase in PL prices has dropped dramatically. The new red line ( upper one ) is a suggested bottom of a new channel for PL. Has the rate really dropped, or should I just fudge the position of the old channel bottom? Hmmm ....??

If I use the new red line as the bottom of the new PL channel ..... surprise, surprise ...... it seems to follow the slope of the recent price history for gold!! ( Lower red line ) . Are gold and PL finally trending in the same direction now? and at the same rate? Might be. This would mean that instead of gold following along the top of the old channel, it is really following along the bottom of the new upward-trending channel. Interesting possibilities for the near future!

Next week's action will help a lot in defining the new trends. Stay tuned. Isn't this fun?

test

To all you Oil Bugs:

U.S. refinery capacity is now 99.5 % of 100 % Any incremental increse in demand will cause prices to rise until enough supply can be secured overseas.

I think all refined products and Nat Gas are screaming buys.

I'M NEW TO THE SITE AND THOROUGHLY ENJOY. JUST TRYIN

TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO POST. TEST ONE TWO

Ted: It was Black Friday on the football field tonight. The high school team played like their college neighbors ( Purdue University, 3 blocks west ) have for the past 10 years. West Lafayette will surely drop from their number 15 ranking. Maybe things will look brighter tommorrow.

Is Jordan Montana, Clark ranch, another Ruby Ridge or Waco ?
Can anyone update this material ?
Is this material " Bunkum" "Diatribe" ?
Is this what we Canadians can expect to happen, in regards to Quebec.?

Date:Thu, 27 Jun 1996 23:54:06 -0400

*BILLINGS OR BEIJING* By J. Patrick Shannan Copyright 1996
The Standing Army, Controlled News, and Suppressed Court Documents
in Montana are the U. S. Government's Latest Chapter of Tyranny


His goal was to expose the fraud in the Fed's credit money system. In every case, when the drafts were presented to the IRS and credit institutions for the extra amount, the original draft cleared and a refund for the difference was sent by check or credited to the senders account. Later, when the federal prosecutor and the news media began to accuse the Freemen of writing "bogus" checks, it was not as honest report.

Until this issue is adjudicated in an unbiased court of law, the world cannot know whether or not the liens were "illegal" and the checks "bogus." Schweitzer and Petersen want it to be tried in an honest court because they know that, if all the facts can come out, they win--regardless of the outcome. Either what they are doing is legal and honest and the Freemen are a total of 17 trillion wealthier than they were, or else the whole system is illegal and the have managed finally to expose this fact to the American people. They already know that the latter is the correct answer to the question but realize that they must not sit in jail on any such criminal charge unless *Alan Greenspan* is their cellmate ~ a sentence they would joyfully serve, if it would free
the American people from the stranglehold of fiat money and get gold and silver coin circulating in the starts again.

The message of the freemen is being suppressed from the public. What does the government fear? Captured Freemen LeRoy Schweitzer and Dan Petersen say the reason is obvious: "The government does not want the people of America to learn of our lawful stand." They say, and a large percentage of Montanans concur, that the Fed's fictional credit system is hanging by a thread, and the plutocrats are horrified that the sunlight of Truth is shinning so brightly in their formerly darkened corner. Hence, this enormous show of power.

AUSA James Seykora offers no comment on the subject. However, to any unbiased observer, the behavior of the court is perplexingly suspect. On May 23rd, friend of the Freemen Warren Stone, filed a Writ of Habeas Corpus and Affidavit in support of same with the Federal Court. The next day District Judge James M. Burns issued an order characterizing the
document as "...a diatribe about claimed violation of the rights of LeRoy Schweitzer and Daniel Petersen arising from arrest and custody in Yellowstone County Detention Center. The document describes various ways in which the above-named defendant's rights have been and are being violated. The files of this case should not be cluttered with bunkum such as this.
http://ultimate.org/law/rolc/roll/shannon.htm

HEY PUETZ
DID YOU HEAR THAT THE JEFF HARRISON GAME WAS DELAYED
BECAUSE NO REFEREES SHOWED UP. COULDN'T HAPPEN TO A BETTER OUTFIT!! ( JEFF )

HEY PUETZ
DID YOU HEAR THAT THE JEFF HARRISON GAME WAS DELAYED
BECAUSE NO REFEREES SHOWED UP. COULDN'T HAPPEN TO A BETTER OUTFIT!! ( JEFF )

HEY PUETZ
DID YOU HEAR THAT THE JEFF HARRISON GAME WAS DELAYED
BECAUSE NO REFEREES SHOWED UP. COULDN'T HAPPEN TO A BETTER OUTFIT!! ( JEFF )

WOW, GUESS I HIT THE TRIGGER TO HARD!

JMARK: Welcome. The more, the merrier.

Yellow Jacket, I agree with Gene's suggestions. Very low risk solid companies at good prices just now, particularly VGZ.
John

Checking in after a fine Hot-August-night...

Hey Armani-boy,

Gauntlets? Throw it down. We'll see you there...silk vs. cotton...

AwAy...to press my B.V.D.'s

EB

Don't believe what you read in the papers. Here is the untold story behind the Mir Space Station experiment :

MIR STATION MISHAPS YEILD VALUABLE DATA


KOROLYOV, RUSSIA - August 27, 1997 -U.S. and Russian
scientists are increasingly excited about the Mir space station project,
which promises to reveal more than has ever been known about the
scientific relationship between weightlessness and mortal terror.
"By stranding our scientists on a dilapidated space station with faulty
wiring, loose hardware, and malfunctioning air systems," NASA head
Daniel Goldin said, "we have created extremely favorable conditions for
learning about spaceborne panic."

The two Russians and one American on board the station are reportedly
terrified beyond
lucidity. Among the groundbreaking experiments conducted on board Mir: a
June 25
collision with a cargo craft that depressurized the Spektr module; last
week's emergency power shortage, caused by a disconnected cable; and the
periodic release of "dry ice" steam that simulates a shipboard fire.

All have been deemed a huge success by agency heads.

"They are in a constant state of what aerospace scientists term
'mind-shattering terror,' frightened for their very lives," Russian
mission director Vladimir Solovyov said. "And we have not even used the
hull-mounted Alien puppet that taps on the window yet."

"We have also taken huge leaps in our understanding of the patterns
created when one wets his pants in the weightlessness of space,"Solovyov said.
"The urine spreads out in an expanding sphere, something
we did not expect."

Taking a break from his busy schedule, astronaut Michael Foale told ABC
News reporters: "Where is Mommy?"

"Please tell me the access code to the Soyuz capsule," Russian cosmonaut
Aleksandr Lazutkin said. "I would like to return to the chaotic government
and widespread hunger of my homeland."

Scientists expect to gain even more useful data during an experiment at
3a.m. tomorrow. As the astronauts sleep, whirling red siren lights will
flood the cabin while an ear-splitting klaxon alarm jolts themawake. Detailed
scientific data will then be collected on such variables
as open weeping, defecation and hair loss.

The following comments were written 11/26/96. Very interesting.


"Geraldine Weiss is one of the advisors making market timing comments who use large cap price to dividend ratio to time the market. She has been bearish for years and the price to dividend ratio is at an all time high. After being wrong for several years, she is now absolutely hysterical. But whenever some guru is asked whether the "market" is due for a crash, the answer is "look at the small caps". Just at the top of a bull market
before going into a bear, small caps are supposed to be going crazy. Right now small caps are anything but."

http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/s-7910/reply-352

RJ ( 29 Aug 1997 23:44 )

RJ, ( questions on platinum since you seem to have an opinion on the subject - comments from others would be appreciated )
As a small-time, working class investor are platinum coins worth buying as a long term savings vehicle? or should I just stick to gold and silver ( bars ) ? About 20% of the coins I own are platinum ( metals make up about 4% of net worth ) . They have done well but I suspect unless I trade, the short term benefits wont necessarily be realised. This is my real concern - can platinum be a substitute for gold or just a speculative play? I look at it as diversification but I question just how realistic this view is.

I shy away from silver because of its bulk ( despite Mooneys advice to hold a bit ) .

Also, do you have an idea what will the purity of the American platinum coins be? 9995 ? or 9000 ? or other?

In the Great Northern Dominion we stick to pure products ( Pt coins of 9995 are considered pure ) to avoid government ( purchase ) taxes.

If you can help, thanks.

Time to take stock ( not those kind ) to address why the gold price is not rising.
Are the weak Asean and troubled European Currencies causing flight to the dollar?
Has gold, after the media campaign and CB selling rumors left the third world unsure relative to gold as a safe haven?
Are the non-commercials the proverbial tail wagging the dog in gold futures?
Is it producer hedging or gold loans?
Why does't ABX do as Newmont and take some easy profits, or are they afraid of being "POLITICALLY INCORRECT"? Heck if they cut production by 25% and sold above ground gold, their mines live would be increased. Higher prices down the line may be slam dunk.
Anyone know why gold is not rising?

The slide continues, and Latin America looks like the next domino to fall. Keep in mind that OIL is priced in US Dollars. If OIL should rise from here, the effects on Thailand, Indonesia, Phillipines, Malaysia, and S.Korea will be greatly enhanced due to the collapse in their currencies in US Dollars. The same thing applies to a weaker Yen. Japan is the key, and its problems are deepening at an increasing pace. Gold will not launch until Japan PANICS. When it DOES launch, it will be EXPLOSIVE. OIL, El Nino, a nosedive in the YEN, Japanese Banks, Insurance Companies, Trading Houses, etc...anyone of these could tip an already precarious Japan over the edge.

Here are the marching orders to the Central Bankers: "INFLATE, but don't make it LOOK like you're inflating."

JACK: Your question 04:35 of why gold is not rising is a good one. My guess is as good as yours but certainly the media, CBs, shorting situation,producer hedging, and what I call the "overhang"are factors. As you know when a stock goes down for some time an overhang builds up of people who want to get out even. We may well have a lot of that in the gold area after the long decline. A really major event would wipe that out in a hurry. Munk ( ABX ) claims he could unwind his hedging program in a hurry and still profitably when the worm turns as I read him. To him like most people being politically correct is a luxury only when times are good. The dollar and trying for a profit reigns in bad times. At the base of all this of course is greed and fear. I am sure there are other reasons for the gold price situation but given the right circumstances our insurance will pay off. I have always said I would rather stay even or lose on my golds because when our insurance pays off we know our society is in trouble. Trading of course is a different story. Have never had the guts for much of that.

Re: Donald. You may be 63, but you have more energy than me,
40 next year. 4 AM, and I still can't sleep, but today I had
the satisfaction of vindication, seeing that my successor
has now, too, been dethroned by the Sociopathic Subordinate.

Good. That makes me less of a "nutball" now.

Will the "Puetz Predictions" come true?

It *is* starting to look good. : )

Sheller looks into my soul and sees the real me. That's okay,
my wife does the same thing. : ) This astrology stuff. I've
seen it work. On occasion.

Greenspan. Y'all are wrong about Greenspan. He's replaying
history. He KNOWS he's replaying history. What could be more
challenging than replaying 1929 and beating the previous outcome?

I'm tempted... strongly tempted to think that second-guessing
Greenspan might be the best possible investment strategy. Sometimes
I try to do this. For instance, several here believe that
Greenspan has "forgone" his Ayn Rand philosophy.

I don't think so.

In fact, I think he's probably more committed to it than ever.
However, what would it profit a man to have his dollar honored,
but the economy collapsed?

Somebody posted an article about Central bank leveraged purchasing
of U.S. bonds. I think this was predictable.

I think there is an excellent chance of a crash. I think Greenspan
will postpone it again. I think they'll drive down short-term
rates again. At least, I think these are good bets in the event
of a crash.

I still think they have a trick left. Perhaps a mandatory
penalty fee on redemption of T-bills. Maybe just a shot of
low-level inflation to burn off the real value of current debt.

I believe that Greenspan has created a pretty darn good real-
time model of the economy, and he's using this to guide money
creation. I'm not at all surprised that his model shows the
market to be 20% overvalued. I'd be willing to bet that he
used linear extrapolations, not exponential. Wild speculation
could surmise that he's adjusting certain linear parameters in
the model at regular intervals.

The guy knows what he is doing. I'm convinced of this. 100%.

I believe he will make a mistake, but it will be due to the fact
that he has moved beyond the bounds of known, predictable history
because he HAS been successful in circumventing previous pitfalls.

Uncle Sam says that GDP rose 3.6%. Maybe. I question the
numbers now. But even if it's true, how much did the respective
claims ( debt ) on that growth grow? As a rough estimate, I'd
have to guess $200B / $6T = about 3% eaten up by government
promises alone. Throw in corporate & private debt, and I imagine
that claims rose 7 or 8%. Greenspan needs the ratio of
claims / GDP to fall below 1.00 at some point.

I really think y'all should be extremely careful to NOT
underestimate Alan Greenspan's actions or "philosophy".

A good N is brewin out in the North Atlantic with big monster waves rollin in and a drivin rain pelting the windows....better not destroy my damn GARDEN!...Puetz ( 00:58 ) Sorry to hear about the game but even Larry Bird+ Bobby Knight lose a few...here + there.....EB+RJ: Surf's up dudes..
but lack of sand + jagged rocks make the surfin experience a "one-time" trip....Just woke ( ? ) up and am rambling ( same as before I went ta sleep ) but even I am wondering how Asia is going to get itself out of its pickle before it does a # on me buddy,Mr.Dow Jones....but as they say..."dust ta dust"...drink more Java and shut the hell up ya damn fool.......Looks like my piece of SH!T ISP is down again!!!!!!

JACK: You said earlier ( Fri 16:42 ) if PM prices were high in a deflation, your mines would not be selling their production. Wouldn't the high prices BE the market for your production? "Someone" would be buying, no? Perhaps I misunderstood your concerns here.

DONALD, EARL: re Pudong & Shanghai, my son and his wife ( she was born in Shanghai ) live in Shanghai. He has operated in China for the past 5 years and is fluent in Mandarin ( Earl, you know this already ) . He has been telling me for the longest time that the PRC will make Shanghai the financial center of Asia, no if's and's or but's. Hong Kong will remain solid, but will be a front in time. Shanghai has always been the financial heart of China. And, yes, Earl, we DO have a giant wall-map of China in our home. And it's in Chinese. Good thing I know where the hell most of these cities are!

Mornin Mike...Interesting comments about China and it totally makes sense that this is how the PRC would deal with Hong Kong....Asian SUBTLETY! Now let's see if I can post this as my ISP has been down 50% of the time for THREE weeks since they did their infamous upgrade ( ? ) ....Asians ...they ain't!

TER: Thanks for the site! Tom Talbot's take on the stock and precious metals markets has an uncanny similarity to my own. His argument that the strong dollar is the fulcrum of the financial bull and gold bear is absolutely on target.

Persistent strength in the dollar is the principal reason why so many seemingly bullish events have not been able to trigger sustainable rallies in the yellow. That includes recent problems with Asian and South American currencies and stock markets. Only a major bear market in U.S. financial assets ( especially the dollar ) will get gold moving on the upside. But when this reversal does occur, the ensuing gold bull will be far stronger than most expect.

To: Yellow Jacket Aug 29 22:16 - Re: Finding Data - Finding High, Low & Close of the day session of COMEX Gold is a much more difficult task than you can ever imagine. Before I worked on the Floor I had a notebook that I would write the prices of the day into. Finding out what truely happened each day was increadible. I found that if I checked 5 different sources that I would find two or three of them wrong. Even to this day I look at two different newletters which are written by professionals and on the front page they have the High, Low & Close. I would say three days a week they are wrong, and I know that my numbers are correct! Anyway I have the correct high, low and close of COMEX Gold day session going back a couple years. I can not copy the entire thing as it would be too time consuming, but if you need any particular day I can send that to you. If nothin else, if you find a source, E-Mail me three random days of data and I will tell you if they are correct, too give you an idea if the rest of the data is also correct.

George S. Cole -- Yup! We don't often see tsunami type moves in the markets, but if one can be 'aboard' when it happens, it can be a bit 'thrilling'! The currency crises overseas have created the undersea wave that is traveling at 500 MPH towards us. As it approaches, the 'water' level is going to drop precipitously. THEN watch out, 'cause its coming roaring in! That'll be like planting golds own weight in nitro under it and setting it off! Those who are short at that point are like those standing on the beach in front of it!

anybody have any idea why Minorca on the tse has halted trading- pending
news

Jimmy Rogers on CNBC yesterday morning mentioned he's short on the US $, expects Asian countries to sell US bonds to repatriate due to internal problems.

Though the Fed remains skeptical about the usefulness of the monetary aggregates as policy indicators, recent developments in
the money and credit aggregates are catching the Fed's attention. In particular, rapid growth in the volume of large time deposits
has led to a robust acceleration in M3 since late-'96, which has left the annual M3 growth pace well above the upper bound of
the Fed's 2% - 6% target band.
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/mmsview.htm

Hale pleaded guilty in a deal with Whitewater prosecutors
to unrelated charges of defrauding the SBA. He accused
Tucker and President Clinton of pressuring him for a separate
$300,000 SBA loan in 1986 to clean up financial problems at
an Arkansas thrift owned by the Clintons' Whitewater partner,
James McDougal. The loan went to McDougal's wife, Susan,
and was never repaid.
. . . . Mr. Clinton denied the accusation. McDougal, convicted
in the first Whitewater trial, has since corroborated Hale's
account.
http://www.washtimes.com/investiga/ww.current.html

More on Chilean mining royalties.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/28/y0023_z00_10.html

Does he have a 'master plan' or 'lost control'?
That's because the economy looks far different than the expectation outlined by
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan only a few weeks ago. In congressional testimony
on July 22, Greenspan said: ''Unless aggregate demand increases more slowly
than it has in recent years--more in line with the trends in the supply of labor and
productivity--imbalances will emerge.'' He went on to say that second-quarter
demand had eased, and that the Fed's forecast was for economic growth to
remain moderate, in the 2% to 2.5% range in coming quarters. Under that
scenario, a rate hike was highly unlikely.
http://www.businessweek.com/1997/36/b3543055.htm

The International Monetary Fund warned on Aug. 21 that Brazil should shore up
its current-account position. And the rising deficit and strong currency are scaring
investors who see similarities in Brazil and Thailand, which had to devalue its baht
in early July. Brazil's stock market has fallen some 16% since then.
http://www.businessweek.com/1997/36/b3543059.htm

Eldorado: I like your Tsunami wave analogy Even though gold looks like it will go south short-term, I sure as hell wouldn't want to be short when that wave smashes onto our shores.

Extract from International Trader ( Peter DuBois ) in Barron's.

"as paper money becomes worth less and less, the allure of gold as a storehouse of value could increase. By one account, this already is occurring in Indonesia, which is suffering a severe drought. In Wonosari, central Java, scarce water reportedly is being purchased with the precious metal. All of which proves that gold is just as valuable on dry days as during the proverbial rainy ones."

WORLD ECONOMY IN
BRIEF

Date: 9/2/97

TOKYO:

Unemployment dips in July

Japan's unemployment rate fell to 3.4% in July,
dropping back from a record level a month
earlier, the government announced. The overall
jobless rate had remained at the record high of
3.5% in June.

The rate among women improved, dropping to
3.4% from 3.6% in June and from a record 3.8%
in May, the Management and Coordination
Agency reported.

HONG KONG:

Asian markets again tumble

Asian stock markets tumbled across the board
Friday, battered by continuing worries about the
stability of some of Asia's currencies.

Share prices plunged in Hong Kong for a second
day, with the key index shedding 5% on the
regional currency trouble and fears of a rise in
local interest rates. Stocks were also down
sharply in Tokyo, Thailand, Malaysia and
Indonesia as currencies slumped and investors
fretted about the region's financial stability.

ROME:

GDP up 1.7% in 2nd qtr

The Italian economy posted a stronger-
than-expected rebound in the second quarter,
rising 1.5% over the first quarter and 1.7% over
the same quarter a year ago, according to the
Italian national statistics office ( Istat ) .

The figures, better than market expectations of a
1% rise on both the quarter and the year,
reflected two extra working days in the second
quarter over the first quarter and one more
working day over the second quarter 1996.

PARIS:

Unemployment drops to 12.5%

The number of French unemployed dropped in
July by 17,900, or 0.6%, in seasonally adjusted
terms to 3,113,000, for a rise of 1.7% on the
year, the Labor Ministry said.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, as
defined by the International Labor Office, dipped
back to the May level of 12.5% after edging up to
12.6% in June on a rise of 17,400 jobless. In July
1996, the rate was 12.4%.

PARIS:

Factory output slips 0.2%

French manufacturing output dipped 0.2% in June
after a decline of 1.2% in May ( revised up from
-1.7% ) , for a gain of 3% on the year, according
to seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures from
the national statistics agency Insee.

In the second quarter, manufacturing output rose
1.8% after a rise of 1.5% in the first quarter.

FRANKFURT:

Investment grows 7%

German plant and equipment orders in July this
year were 7% above the level in July 1996, with
both domestic and foreign orders showing large
gains, the German machinery manufacturers'
association reported.

The July rise follows a 16% year-over-year gain
posted in June. In July, domestic orders were 1%
above a year earlier, while foreign orders were
13% higher from a year earlier.

LONDON:

Deficit to shrink a little

The U.K.'s general government financial deficit for
the financial year 1996-97 using the European
System of Integrated Accounts is estimated at
31.4 billion pounds, or 4.2% of GDP, the Office
for National Statistics said.

The gap for '96 has been revised up to 36 billion
pounds, or 4.9% of GDP, from the first estimate
of 32.3 billion pounds. To take part in the single
currency, a nation's deficit-to-GDP ratio must be
below 3%.

LONDON:

Britons take home more pay

U.K. pay awards rose in July, and may continue
upward against a background of rising inflation
and tighter labor markets, according to a report
by independent pay analysts Income Data
Services.

IDS said its latest data show more settlements in
the 3.5% to 4.5% range are being awarded by
companies that are influential in their sectors and
in the U.K. economy.

LONDON:

Indicator suggests slowing

A weekly indicator of the U.K. economy is
suggesting a slackening in the rate of growth of
activity, Oxford Economic Forecasting said.

The overall index of the Oxford Weekly Indicator
fell for the second consecutive week, to 102.9
from 104.0 last week. The manufacturing
indicator fell to 103.3 from 103.9 and the services
indicator also fell to 99.4 from 100.8.

LONDON:

Home prices up 12.1% on year

The U.K. Nationwide house price index in August
rose 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis vs. July
and was 12.1% higher than a year earlier, the
building society said.

The August data compare with July figures
showing a monthly rise of 1.8% and an annual
increase of 12.2%. The average house price rose
to 60,581 pounds from 60,134 pounds in the
previous month.

Big trouble in Kenya.
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970829/international/stories/kenya_1.html

Regarding the wager between Senores Puetz y LurkingGbug, I would be most happy to relieve Senor Bart of the onerous responsibility for to hold the wager funds. I will accept the $1500 gladly, in gold, seguro!

Mornin' Miguel, how's the weather in Costa Rica today? ALL CONCERNED W/ ASIAN CURRENCIES: Am I being naive and simplistic ( currency problems always get me confused ) by thinking that this currency carnage in Asia benefits US paper-market inflation ( step 1 of worldwide inflato-rama ) . First, it keeps pressure off APPARENT producer and consumer price rises from foreign sources. Second, it stampedes much of that money made selling manufactures to the US back to a more stable "haven" - ie: US Bonds. Mas papel amigos! Am I being too simple? Too "conspiratorial?"

WHY SHOULD IT BE TAKEN FOR GRANTED THAT WORKERS SHOULD PAY THE
COSTS OF GLOBALISATION WHILE INVESTORS & MANAGEMENT TAKE THE
PROFITS????

The Weekend Australian 30th August, 1997

US-style labour reform at a cost
By Bob Santamaria

A N American-Australian
"leadership dialogue" was
reportedly held in Melbourne last weekend,
attended by Peter Costello, Peter
Reith, Jeff Kennett and some White
House staffers. including one of Bill
Clinton's advisers on economic
affairs, Dr Lael Brainard ( The Age,
August 26 ) .
The last is reported to have claimed
that the US had created 12 million
jobs in the past four years. "Job
creation is very much linked to globalisation
and export-related jobs,"
said Brainard, urging Australia to go
and do likewise.
Any proposal that really helps to
create jobs is worth support, but It is
important to examine the prospectus
carefully -- especially in the case of US
job-creation programs. There is a constant
barrage of assertions that the US
in recent times has created these
millions of new jobs and has reduced
unemployment to 5 per cent without
giving rise to any sign of inflation.
The achievement is contrasted
with the equal failure of the European
economies ( Germany, France
and Italy, in particular ) , whose
unemployment rates are, in each case, up
to 12 per cent of the workforce.
The familiar American claim was
challenged at a recent conference of
the German-American Foundation,
held in Bonn, dealing with international
labour markets. Harvard
economist Richard Freeman pointed
out that "neither Europe nor the
United States had found work for less-
skilled manual workers in the post-
industrial economy, nor managed to
provide social protection without running
up large government deficits"
He added that the "incarceration"
factor ( that is. prison ) , which was often
omitted on presentation of the US
employment statistics, took no account
of working-age men out of work
because they were in jail or on parole.
The 1.5 million in prison and the
8 million on parole represented 10 per
cent of the American male work-
force. Taking account of these numbers
and subtracting those parolees
with jobs would lift the American
jobless rate of about five percentage
points into double digits, within
range of the present 12 per cent
European Union rate.
The Europeans are naturally becoming
toey about unfavourable contrasts
between their economies and those of
the US, and beginning to take
umbrage at the US statistics, whose
accuracy is increasingly questioned.
The progressive abolition of federal
welfare payments by the Clinton
administration, together with the low
level of wages for unskilled workers,
has had an impact on unemployment
figures, The costs, however, are not
always included in the reckoning.
The current issue of Business
Week -- which is not In the business
of denying US achievements -
points out that "today nearly a third
of all workers are stuck in the lower-
skilled jobs paying less than
$US15,000 [$A20,000] a year ... at
$10.49 an hour on average, US wages
are still nearly 8 per cent below the
all time high of $11.35 an hour
reached In 1973, after inflation
adjustment. They won't get back to
1989 levels for roughly three more
years at today's 1.4 per cent annual
growth rate. It would take five years
to return to the postwar peak of 1973."
This low level of wages is less a
matter of economic necessity than
the result of a wholesale redistribution
of income from the rewards of
increased productivity. The official
figures rate the increase in US productivity
since 1990 at 7 per cent.
President Clinton's former labour
secretary Robert Reich noted last
week corporate profits had increased
by 19 per cent in the past five years
( International Herald Tribune,
August 21 ) . Wages and benefits
together have, however, grown by a
mere 1 per cent.
The object of pointing out these
facts is not to cry "stinking fish" but
simply to counter the persistent and
misleading propaganda as to the
American "success story" advocated
as the road to be followed by this
country in finding its way out of the
present economic mess.
With one-third of the Australian
population living on welfare benefits
as the main item of family income.
with 41 per cent of males aged 25 to 44
-- the ones with young families -
receiving less than $33,000 a year
( which leaves an average of $26,700
after tax ) , with few benefits, we are
already a fair way down the US road.
It may, of course, be argued that we
have to go further down to compete
with foreign labour in a globalised economy.
But the cost of so doing, political as
well as economic, should be carefully
assessed before we do so. And
that assessment should also include a
consideration of other factors.
Instead of focusing merely on
"labor market reform" -- that is,
reducing wages -- consideration
might be given to the fact that
Australia has the highest real interest
rates in the Western world; to the
monopoly of money-creation by the "
banking system that operates exclusively
for private profit; and to the
decay of public infrastructure.

Perhaps attention might also be
given to the point made by William
Pfaff, a regular columnist in the
.International Herald Tribune
( August 21 ) .

"Last January I wrote a column
asking why it should be taken for
granted that workers should pay the
costs of globalisation while investors
and management take the profits.

That evoked a negative comment from
The Economist about such 'bleatings'
about social justice. But The Economist
didn't answer the question."

In my posting below I was stating how tough it was to get accurate info on the high, low and close of Gold. Well our own exchange gets it wrong.

http://cgi.ino.com/exchanges/nymex.html

They have Dec Gold closing at $327.50 when it really closed at $327.40.
They also have Sept closing at $324.10 when it really closed at $324.50.
They also have Oct closing at $325.60 when it really closed at $325.50.
They also have Feb closing at $329.70 when it really closed at $329.10
They also have April closing at $332.00 when it really closed at $331.00
June98 is the only closing they got right!

Looking over the silver numbers they did just as BAD!!
You would think that something as staight forward as the closing prices would not be that tought, but it is. I constantly see newspapers and other sources get the high, low and close, and open interest WRONG!

In his hard-hitting speech, Mahathir said the sell-off on Malaysia's financial markets has increased its foreign denominated
debts, reduced incomes and erased more than 400 billion ringgit ( $137.93 billion ) from its capital markets.
http://www.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/MALAYSIA-ECONOMY.html

Hello Glenn:

I've always thought that since a lot of orders to buy/sell MOC are always executed; that the numbers in newspapers etc are actually somebodies guess. Also, if you look at the newspaper closing prices for commodities in the late 1960's and early 1970's you will not see ONE price as THE closing price but a closing range as the close.

Japanese 10 yr bond yields down further. More liquidity sought from Jap.
Central Bank. US Dollar at 4 month high against the Yen.
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970829/business/stories/dollar_15.html

Hello Glenn:

I think ( guess ) this change was done when options came into being. How would you settle or calculate the options value unless each side had A price which is also "THE" price?

Jack: As I said months ago gold is not wanted by its potential buyers. It is that simple to me. Why would investors buy into a declining metal when they can make money in the stock market? We have heard that argument in detail here for the passed few days and its hard to argue with. In August there is the added "summer vacation" of the northern hemisphere and traditionally that includes the European gold jewellery makers. Despite the interest here and on a few other sites there are not a lot of people expecting a financial cataclysm at the moment nor are there a lot of people expecting major civil unrest. Most people do not believe there is any inflation to speak of anywhere in the industrialised world -at the moment. Hence no buyers--relatively speaking. Once the "average guy" changes his mind on 1 or more of the above there will be demand and the price will rise the way it should. Reading Kitco daily will soon show you that there are different views of the world. However that's my explanation--nobody wants gold at the moment.

Hello NOMERCY:

I wonder if Malaysia is setting the stage for an official repudiation of the debt it is unfairly being sattled with? The US wouldn't be able to object as FDR did the same thing in 1932 and Nixon in 1972

Greenspan on role of Governments in Markets. I thought they had none!!
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970830/business/stories/greenspan_1.html

Thanks, you people, for contributing such a wealth of info and links. I've only recently become interested in gold after a hiatus since the hay days of the South African stocks in the 70's. This site is much more than I bargained for. Donald - you're a prince. By the way, re the link last night to Greenspan on gold and such: he refers now to printing money as a "lubricant" to calm financial dislocations. Wonderful new euphemisms for "Don't let your friends get f'd."

GEORGE COLE, BB FISHER: As you both see further weakness in gold stocks a strong liklihood, do you also see the major averages declining further at the same time, or do you see a divergence with the averages rallying somewhat while gold shares pout in a ( hopefully ) final swoon? Or what?

I meant to say "put in a final swoon", but "pout" in a final swoon is so much more emotive, don't you think?

Jin?

I recall you as being bearish on gold; were and are you now stunned at the golds explosive price move that came without warning and is beyond anyones wildest guess? Do you find it beyond belief that the gold dealers refuse to sell any of thier inventory?

SELBY: Yours at 10:13 reminded me of that story that was told here at Kitco about Ben Franklin and his friend trying to give away gold pieces in Paris for low prices. People are suspicious of investment bargains. They only want investments when they are trendy and expensive, when all their friends are buying and talking about their investments. That is why oddballs like us have this once in seventeen years opportunity.

Pull out the bb fisher Dow/Gold Ratio chart. Look at April 1980. Recall back to those days and remember the mindset of everyone as it related to stocks, bonds and gold. Everyone wanted gold. You couldn't give away stocks and bonds. Yet, that was the exact moment to buy and hold stocks and bonds for the long term...and the exact time to get out of gold.

I think you have to do just the reverse now. You must ignore the crescendo of Dow 100,000, new era and all the rest. You must buy gold when it is the most unpopular and hold for the long term. It is very difficult emotionally but now is the time.

Re: Malasya
I don't believe that official repudiation of the debt is in the cards at this moment.
Most of their debt holders are also major trade partners ( Japan? ) and as such, Malasyia would be isolated and in this age of globalization, that's a no no.

GLENN: Sounds like you have what I'm looking for. I found a source, the C.O.B at Cal Poly, but the data stops at 4/97. I'll email you later this weekend. Thanks!

RJ and Bart:
Thanks for your helping me to understand. Your comment, Bart, especially anticipated and answered my ultimate question of whether or not the Royal Mint wimped out when the silver price dropped below face value. I am glad that they decided to fulfill their promise to do so. I wonder if the same level of integrity would be displayed by the US if the eagle had a $5 face value??

This site is a wonderful meeting place where people can exhange their thoughts and learn from each other. Thanks to all for helping me. 73, Lar

Ref: Donald ( @Home ) post: I emphatically endorse your wisdom.

Mike Sheller: I expect the overall market to rally as the gold stocks decline. But this rally probably will not establish new highs for the Dow Jones and gold bullion probably will not hit new lows.

Strength in the small caps and the minuscule number of new lows on the NYSE does not suggest a market about to fall apart within the next few weeks. Money is rotating out of the big caps into the cheaper small caps. The end will be near when the small caps start dipping with their larger cousins and the number of new lows expands markedly. We should see this by late September. A strong gold stock rally should commence at that time.

This Asian Tiger countries crisis will bring on fundamental changes to world economic, political, and military stability. It has far reaching implications than most people think. The Chinese chess game cannot and should not be UNDERESTIMATED.
The Stage is set for China to emerge as a or the World Superpower. Conditions are idyllic for them at this moment and it'll be interesting to see whether they capitalize on the opportunity that this CAOS is presenting or merely, obtaining a 'few prized chess pieces' such as Taiwan ( if they do it'll be desguised at first and cashed in a couple of years down the road ) .

1 ) A review of the 'pegging' to the US $ is being contemplated by Asian countries. Within the next 60 days we'll find out the outcome.
2 ) China emergence and aspiration of World power, will be the wild card, and most 'troublesome' for Japan, US and Europe.
3 ) Japan will take the blunt of this Asian crisis, as 40% of their exports are to that region. Bank loan losses, lower earnings by their corporation and subsequent effect to their economy will be, another 'troublesome' dilemma.
4 ) Major impact to US will be in from the sale of US bonds by Japan, Tiger countries & possibly HongKong and to a lesser extend from lower exports to this region. Also T-Bonds purchases from Japan, and Tiger countries in the future will diminish or cease.
5 ) China will DEMAND, US & Japan concessions on TAIWAN & WTO. Either way they hold the TRUMP card , as a ) can create additional havoc through their holding of US bonds and HongKong b ) If US & Japan refuse their 'speculators' might take a run at the US equity & bond market, in the midst of this CRISIS, as Japan & Asian Tiger countries almost have no choice but to sell some bonds ( unless the US accepts a devalued Yen & corresponding HUGE balance of trade deficit and IMPACT on auto industry world wide.
6 ) Add, EMU, Russia ( whose side are they REALLY ON? ) , Middle East, N.Korea, and El Nino, weak South American economies, further currency devaluation worldwide, & corresponding collateral effect

Go Gold!

ALL: Even though I do expect gold stocks to drop in early September, the long-term risk/reward has never been better. I have cut my FSPMX holdings somewhat, but still have a sizable position. I plan to pile back in as soon as the price/volume patterns become more favorable.

ALL...Have been super busy the last couple of weeks and had little time to monitor...Glad to have the old KITCO back !!! Thanks BART...

"Portfolio managers are panicking," one U.S. fund's co-manager said. "They're terrified of redemptions, and just selling
wholesale."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/docs/news/19970830/ROBFront/RASIA.html

The argument that U.S. rates will not now rise follows from the dynamics of the crisis. Money is already leaving Asia, flowing
mostly to the United States, and creating a risky situation. Steven Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins
University, said yesterday in an interview that the Asian crisis "decreases the probability that interest rates will be raised." The
reason: Higher U.S. rates could cause an even graver crisis in Asia. "Once you get crashes going on in all these peripheral
countries, the central banks of the OECD countries are in a position where they can't raise interest rates, because that would set
off capital outflow from these places."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/docs/news/19970830/ROBColumn/RCORC.html

Donald,
Right on the money!
I blieve that we are witnessing 1980 in reverse. This is the time.

Donald
Relate that B.Franklin story to us.

"THE COMING COMPETING CURRENCY DEVALUATIONS" - Dines reviews the spate of currency devaluations in Far-East. He aptly exposes Central Bank folly of increasing interest rates to defend the currency:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines830.html

Checking in after a fine Hot-August-night...

Hey Armani-boy,

Gauntlets? Throw it down. We'll see you there...silk vs. cotton...

AwAy...to press my B.V.D.'s

EB

Gentlmen,

I am often overwhelmed by the knowledge of the occupants of this site and that comment comes from someone who makes his living at this game of stocks. Each morning I find either the site full of vitriolic or wonderfullness. This mornings "stuff" was excellent. My thanks ....

I would nominate everyone but there are obvious standouts that mirror my thought or perceptions of the world, however, I have "learned" from the following this morning and I would like to take this opportunity to say a public "Thank You" for sharing your thoughts and risking the ire of the rabble we sometimes seem to attract.

Nomercy @ 11:30
George Cole @ 11:25
Selby @ 10:13
Eldorado @ 08:22
Who Cares @ 06:28

Thanks guys ....

TTFN

In the land of BIG government,I think I finally found a committee to join ( RACLAU ) or in other words, The regional advisory committee for lighthouse alternative use, but I see in todays paper that another another committee has just been formed to over-C that committee so maybe that's the one fer me....committee's that study the committee's that study...ah...ya get the picture....It never ceases to amaze me that ANYTHING gets done here in WW land....

Must mean a double challenge for Armani-Boy!

Mornin' Ted! Beautiful Day! What are the markets doing today ;- )

back to lurk and coffee...

EB

In order to appreciate the full significance of the parody, one must have seen Hollywoods Blockbuster Hit, THE LAST EMPEROR, and of course know a little of the Chinese culture - and in particular their strong distaste for cheeze. The following is an open letter sent by the Last Emperor of China to todays current Emperor of the Financial World, his Exalted Excellency, Chairman Greenspan.


1 September 1997

His Exalted Excellency
Chairman Alan Greenspan
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
Washington D.C.


Ref: CHINA AND MY FAMILYS MONEY


Dear Exalted Chairman Greenspan:

The sad events of our history prompts me to ask your advice about a long plaguing problem of my Family.

I am Pu Yi from the region of Manchoukuo.

Indulge me to paint a dreadful tale of woe.

First, I was used and abused by the marauding Japanese. Then, comrade Chairman Mao graced my life by reorganizing my way of thinking. Would that these trials and tribulations have granted me a free-pass into the Heavenly Gates, but alas, fate subjected me and my Family to the most devastating invader of our humble existence: insidious inflation and the relentless debauchery of our currency ( hence the expression Chinese Money ) . At the risk of appearing cavalier in my humble thoughts on this subject, I find it almost black humor to liken the incessant loss of purchasing power of our meager savings to the infamous Chinese Water Torture - cruel, inexorable, pitiless, ruthless, unmerciful and utterly indiscriminate in its pernicious effect on my Familys well-being.

Consider the following. Reliable Western sources have stated that since 1970 the Chinese Yuan price of Chuk Kam has soared from 85 Yuans to 3,500 Yuans ( 1994 ) per ounce of the noble metal. If this is indeed true, my Family has lost an emperors ransom ( humblest apologies for unforgiving pun ) in purchasing power. Specifically, this represents a compound annual appreciation of 16.8% in terms of our Chinese money ( no pun intended ) -- a princely return in any kingdom. Regrettably, my Family had all its savings in paper money and not tael bars - safely stowed at the bottom of the rice jar. But this tale of woe is now history. My Family must think of the future - bleak as it is.

Per an eminent precious metals analyst, the death of Deng Xiaoping will eventually cause panic in China and a rush for gold. Furthermore, todays breaking news informs that China is still planning the invasion of Taiwan. Exalted Chairman, my Family appreciates that history repeats itself - and history never repeats itself with equal frequency. However, the constantly increasing Yuan value of Chuk Kam ( gold ) is a difficult argument to refute. Based upon history, the long-term rising price of the precious metal in all currencies, and the bleak, uncertain panorama for the panda people, would not my Family be wise and prudent and shrewd investors to convert much of our assets into tael bars?

Since Hollywood has globally distributed the expos of my opera-tragic life ( may Bertoluccis ancestors be eternally condemned to a strict diet of cheese and chop-suey ) , I have decided to change my name from Pu Yi to something more substantial and lasting, like Chuk Kam.

Humbly respectful - and may the Exalted Chairman live in interesting times,


Mr. Chuk Kam ( a.k.a. Pu Yi )

Jack: Following are the reasons why gold is not rising.... Gold and silver are the only real alternatives to financial paper. As such, when confidence in paper reaches euphoric levels -- as it has now -- gold and silver are avoided. A new up-trend in gold will require a great loss of confidence in paper. In spite of the downturn in the DJIA and the S&P 500, confidence in financial paper remains high.

What has happened with blue-chip stocks has merely been a shifting of the chairs aboard our Titanic financial system. There have been reports that investors are beginning to pull out of stock-index mutual funds. They have taken the proceeds, and re-invested in small-cap funds, bond funds, and money-market funds. But gold and silver have not benefitted.

Rather than just looking at the DJIA, also watch the Russell 2000 Index and the bond market. When those two markets start going down with the DJIA, then the movement into gold and silver should start. To show that confidence still remains fairly strong, the Russell 2000 Index ( of small-cap stocks ) closed at an all-time high on friday.

Finally, even though gold has not rallied very much from its lows, silver has rallied nicely. At the start of a bull market, one of the precious metals usually lags for a while. This time, gold is lagging, while silver is leading. ( Eldorado's probalby thinking: "I told you so." )
Nonetheless, all indications are that the anticipated stock market crash is procceeding on course. When that happens, gold will finally start to move higher along with silver.

Jack, don't give up on gold. It's about ready to move sharply higher.

EB:Markets are soarin in Cape Breton and garden has survived the storm..so far....Waves are huge and think a little kayaking might be in the works as am need of some "cheap thrills"...after another losing session at the casino...my luck has got ta change....my luck has got ta change...this could be my new mantra...ommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Donald: The Ben Franklin story is the essence of what I was trying to say. The big problem is not to get there too soon. I got caught last summer mostly because of the arrival of some of the old gold boosters from the early '80's and the local Kitco enthusiasm and then sold out in Oct- Nov. Fortunately the price did fall as I had anticipated. Buying back in is now the problem. I'd rather be a week late than 17 years too early.

George Soros, you a bad, bad man. You cause ringgit to go down. You a bad short-seller. Stop it now, you very bad man.

Hey MohaMAD,go take a hike!

SHEK: I will try to get it right ( someone who remembers it better please offer repairs ) Back in 1789? when Ben Franklin was U.S. Ambassador to France he got into a discussion about human nature with a French friend. As an experiment they went out to a busy spot where there is a bridge over the River Seine. They had genuine Louis d'or gold coins, about the equivalent to a US $5 gold piece. They were hawking the coins to the public at $1? People would stop and examine them, agree they were genuine, but to a man they refused the deal.

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors

30 day regression table shows Defense in 1st place
FDPMX & FSAGX in 4th & 5th place.

NOMERCY: China as a superpower. Whatever one thinks of the current leaders of China and their policies toward their own people you must marvel at China as a nation. To think that they were an organized society at the time of the Pharaohs, Carthage, Greece, Rome, Mayas, Incas, Spain, and England is just amazing. Now if only they had not invented paper money we would all be wearing silk like RJ.

Reports of financial Tsumami's overseas, bearing down on U.S. markets seem to be confirmed by latest Mutual fund outflow figures for August. These figures indicate that $20+ billion dollars flowed out of mutual funds, primarily due to 401K plan paricipants that were taking advantage of the enormous tax and contribution benefits to be had by investing their money into....into.... OOPS, that money was flowing INTO the mutual fund plans, INTO..sorry.. re the gloom and doom stuff NEVER MIND!!!

( Unable to keep his vow of silence )

Saturday, August 30, 1997
Budget heads for surplus

Ottawa's finances recover more rapidly than forecast. Will the money flooding in be channelled into government spending, debt reduction or tax cuts?

"I think in the current year [1997-98], the deficit will be no greater than $5 billion," said Jeff Rubin, economist at CIBC Wood Gundy Inc. "It will force Paul Martin to 'fess up that his projections are inappropriate and he will revise the deficit estimate to $10 billion."

surpluses that would reduce the overall national debt ( estimated at $593 billion at the end of fiscal 1996-97 ) and cut the government's debt-to-GDP ratio ( estimated at 74.4% for 1996-97 ) .

as governments have raised taxes and pushed people into higher tax brackets. Income distribution has become a growing political problem, since the tax increases have widened the gap between the well-off in society and its poorer members.

http://canoe2.canoe.ca/FP/eco_aug30_budgethead.html

Cape Breton Gold: Gold @ unch....ditto silver...Seals must like BIG waves cause they's riding em....mucho seals...ISP prob's continue and "techie" in Toronto supposedly pin-pointed prob. to Cape Breton routing ( ? ) system.....how surprising in the land of "BIG gov'ment"....get stuck @ each site and have ta turn the puter off ta get ta another site...no problemO guys......go with the "flow"....until I SNAP!

DONALD: Your Ben Franklin story reminded me of the "Customer Yachts".
During the 20's New York yacht harbor was popular with visitors for
sight-seeing. Beautiful motor yachts were moored for most of the rich
bankers and brokers. "There's Mr. Morgan's yacht on the right," a guide
would point, "the one next to it belongs to Mr. Rockefeller, and the one
over there is Mr. Dillon's." One day, an innocent tourist exclaimed,
"Where are the customers' yachts?"

The closing TICK on the DJIA has been negative for the past 4 trading sessions. That's the first time that's happened since March 1994. Why is that significant?

The DJIA TICK has been an indirect way of measuring cash flowing into stock-index mutual-funds. The index-funds have no cash reserves -- they invest every dollar they have in their coffers -- every day. Their transactions tend to occur near the close of trading.

That's why, when cash was flowing into index-funds during the past 3 years, we got the big upward surges in the DJIA during the last 1/2 hour of trading. These big up-moves during the last 1/2 hour caused the DJIA TICK to give consistent positive readings. During the past 3 years, it has not been unusual for the DJIA TICK to have positive closes for more than 20 consecutive days.

This past week, that has changed. It has been rumored that money was leaving index-funds this past week. The string of negative closings on the DJIA TICK and the big drop in share prices during the last 1/2 hour of trading last week confirms this.

As investors continue to leave the index-funds, expect large declines in the DJIA during the last 1/2 hour of trading. That's when the index-funds must sell to meet redemptions -- since they hold no cash reserves.

Front re your 12:36. You mean to tell me LurkingGbug didn't make your top ten list? And who you calling "rabble" anyway, huh pal? Huh! Huh!?

( Continuing to violate his oath of silence.. )

Guess Who - Does information have value? Yes or no. : )

"Yes"

In that case, please explain your criteria for sorting
which bits of information have relevance, and which do
not. For instance, we know that "1987" has no value to
you, yet you sold out stock holdngs. Based upon "historical"
measurements of P/E, book ratio, etc? : )


"No"

Then why did you sell out your stock holdings? "Buy and
hold" sez you have to weather all storms. : )

Puetz - if I were a fund manager, and I read your post,
and I "estimated" the amount of redemptions over the
past few days, and I believed that each trading day
is more likely to end DOWN and UP, wouldn't I then
sell off a calculated amount of my holdings at the
beginning of the session? : )

Donald you mention China ( Beijing ) . I posted material re: Montana Freemen
@ Aug. 30 @ 01:08. ( Billings or Beijing )

Weeks ago, you had referenced a Law in the USofA, that statements made
against the banking system, could possible result in a criminal conviction.? Is this the Law that you may have referenced. Black's Law or
Crime of Criminal Syndicalism. Or, maybe neither, just a comment that you
had referenced from memory ?

Just out of interest, not gold related. Thanks, Take Care.

*Bill Stanton, age 65, a local rancher and self-declared "freeman," was arrested, tried, convicted and sentenced to the Montana State Prison for ten years, where he know resides, for the "crime" of "criminal syndicalism." *

*Black's Law defines it as "Any doctrine or precept advocating, teaching, or aiding and abetting the commission of crime, sabotage, or unlawful acts of force and violence or unlawful methods of terrorism, as a means of accomplishing a change in industrial ownership, or control, or
effecting any political change."] *
http://ultimate.org/law/rolc/roll/shannon.htm

China warned Tokyo not to include Taiwan within the boundaries of the revised security pact, saying Sino-Japan
relations would be put in jeopardy. President Jiang Zemin and the Premier, Mr Li Peng, both condemned Mr
Kajiyama's statements. Mr Hashimoto is expected to duck the Taiwan issue in his meetings with senior Chinese
leaders, including Mr Jiang. Japan is reluctant to declare its hand on the issue because of the ramifications.
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970830/world/world2.html

Last week sometime I read a post here concerning a prediction that the market may crash around the 16th of September because of a Lunar Eclipse, but now I cannot find it again. Could someone point it out to me, or could the author send me a copy of it via email, please.

Initially I was skeptical, but when I dropped a vertical line on the 16th of September on my DOW Head-and-Shoulders chart, it fell at an important convergence point. I'd like to give credit where credit is due, if I can get the name of the author ( even if its only a pseudonym ) .

If you haven't seen my charts yet, visit http://www.goldenknox.com and click on the GOLD link.

The Palestinian conference and Arafat
Palestine, Politics, 8/30/97

Palestinian Authority leader's national unity talks with radical
Palestinian groups last week, in defiance of Israeli protests,
shored up domestic support for embattled Palestinian
leaderYasser Arafat. Even Arafat's bitter rivals said they were
standing by him.

Delegates said the two-day talks, which ended in the West
Bank town of Ramallah on Thursday, showed Palestinians had
closed ranks behind Arafat in response to Israeli sanctions
imposed after a double-suicide bombing in Jerusalem last
month.

"The very fact that these people are here in dialogue is the
beginning of a united front," Palestinian Planning Minister Nabil
Shaath said in Ramallah.

Leaders of fundamentalist and radical groups who attended the
"national conference to confront challenges" praised Arafat for
opposing demands for crackdowns on suspected militants.

But the meeting concluded without resolving deep-seated
differences over Arafat's 1993 peace deal with Israel, reports
of ministerial corruption and complaints over a "lack of
pluralism" under his rule.

Arafat outraged Israeli officials on the first day of talks in Gaza
when he publicly embraced Abdelaziz Rantissi, a leading
member of the fundamentalist Hamas movement who called for
resistance and confrontations against Israel.

Israel says it suspects Hamas was responsible for the July 30
attack that killed 16 people including two suicide bombers. It
demanded Arafat round up militants and condemned him when
he, instead, hugged the killers of women and children.

Arafat arrested hundreds of suspected militants after a wave of
bombings killed scores of Israelis last year but this time he has
rejected Israel "dictates" that he does the same.

"This is a conference to support the stand of our people against
Israeli and American pressure on the Palestinian Authority to
crack down on the infrastructure of Israeli movements,"
Rantissi told reporters in Gaza.

Hamas, which boycotted the last Palestinian conference in
April to protest the detention of its members, could not stay
away while Arafat resisted Israeli pressure.

"If they are standing up for our will, our place is here," Rantissi
said and added Hamas would never accept Arafat's peace
deal with Israel and denied the movement had made a pledge
to halt violence against Israel.

In a step aimed at winning over opponents of the peace
accord, Arafat told the Gaza conference he had not forgotten
the seven-year-Intifada uprising against the Israeli occupation.
"All options are open" he said, if talks with Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu break down. But he also
reached out to the Israeli leaders, saying "Supporters of peace
in Israel, we are with you.

Palestinian officials stressed Arafat was not calling for violence
and said it was Netanyahu, not the Palestinians, who was
derailing the peace talks by building settlements on the
occupied Arab land and stalling on previously signed accords.

"We are committed to the Oslo agreements. It is the other side
who wants to destroy them," said the Palestinian presidency
secretary-general, Tayeb Abdel-Rahim replying to demands
from the Islamic Jihad representatives that Arafat cancel the
peace deal.

Israeli Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordechai said the meetings
showed Arafat faced severe internal difficulties.

Given the distress facing him, he is trying within the Palestinian
camp to find as wide a common denominator as possible, he
said in an interview with the Maariv daily.

But in the end he also knows Hamas is the main threat to the
Palestinian Authority. The crisis with Israel and the show of
Palestinian solidarity had overshadowed long-standing
grievance over Arafat's rule and the troubled peace.

"Every time the peace process stumbles, it is translated into
gains for Hamas," Zaid Abu Amr said in Gaza. "Arafat may be
genuinely threatened by Netanyahu and his schemes. He needs
a lot of support."

Last month Arafat's whole cabinet offered to resign after a
committee recommended two ministers stand trial for
corruption.

And alongside pledges of support for Arafat's defiance of
Israeli pressure, there were countless calls at the Gaza and
Ramallah meetings for greater pluralism and accountability in
the Palestinian Authority.

But Abu Amr said the meeting, the third gathering of
Palestinian factions this year, would not bring about change.
"This is a rally, a show of support for Arafat. He is not ready
for power sharing."

Lurker and occassional poste;Go Gators; Ter thanks for the http://www.erols.com/mdando sight which contains a newsletter from Tom Talbot regarding the mkt. He cleared something up for me and that is how really the baby boom generation really itself can not carry the bull market in stocks alone. I will use this and see how my co workers deal with Talbot's interesting argument.

The following comments are extracted from 1 Sep 97 Barron's and written by Peter C. Du Bois. He is describing some of the effects of the Asia Stock Market Crash that is ongoing.....

"How will this turmoil affect the economies of Asia and the U.S.? For starters,
if recently increased interest rates remain high to deter currency speculators,
economic growth probably will slow, corporate profits could shrink and, in
worst-case scenarios, payments on foreign debt could be delayed."

"Second, as paper money becomes worth less and less, the allure of gold as a
storehouse of value could increase. By one account, this already is occurring
in Indonesia, which is suffering a severe drought. In Wonosari, central Java,
scarce water reportedly is being purchased with the precious metal. All of
which proves that gold is just as valuable on dry days as during the proverbial
rainy ones."

Interesting, Huh?

MachF15

6PAK: It was from memory but I will try to find a legal reference. It is a Banking Act passed in 1938. Due to all the bank failures of the 1931-34 period many of which were caused by false rumors about sound banks it became illegal to say anything bad about a bank even if it was true. I am not aware that anyone has been prosecuted by this law. It is likely it would be declared unconstitutional and never has been tested to my knowledge.

Please accept this observation for whatever value, if any, it may have.

The utilization of the TC2000 system ( Worden Brothers ) makes it very easy to plot the DJ-30 on a monthly basis, and to establish a regression line from 1984, until present.

In 1987 the highest print for the year was in August, at 2746.65. At that time the Dow's regression line was computed at approximately 2140.

The October 1987 close, for the Dow was 1899.20. The extreme variance from regression was resolved.

From 1987, until June 1996, the Dow tracked its regression line very tightly.

Beginning in July 1996, the Dow started moving significantly above its regression line, until a print high of 8298.79 was reached on August 8, 1997.

The regression line value for the Dow in August 1997, was approximately 6029.

In August 1987, the Dow high was approximately 28.3% above its line of regression, an historical high up to that point in the modern market.

In August 1997, the Dow high was approximately 37.6% above its line of regression.

The age old cliche which states that, "the higher the top, the higher the drop" is just another way of saying...... in time, everything always regresses to its mean.

It IS getting bad for gold stocks. My Ma' has been 'switching around' the stocks lately. I told her to look into some gold stocks or gold funds. Her response was not favorable. She said, "they have been DOGS for the longest time, I want our funds/stocks to have some growth" or something Very close to that. I doubled over laughing and I thought of the Kitco-Gold-Stock-Crew. I love my mom and she is quite the savvy woman...but I would like to see some more diversity in their ( mom&pop ) account.

MikeS, John Disney, George, LGB, Puetz, ( I hate naming people cause I leave so many good people out ) and ALL others PLEASE share this info. I WILL NOT HOLD ANYONE RESPONSIBLE, EVER! I would like to know your top two picks for the best mining stocks to have. I will recommend ONLY two or three to her. I'm not very knowledgable here and I have printed out many choices so far. Two favorites is all I ask. Is Newmont Mining a good pick?

My Dad says he will 'throw' 5 grand into gold bullion, it could be a mix of Plat/Gold. I have read some good info along that line here regarding this. Who recently posted the info on the Aussie nuggets 99.9%. I thought I printed it but can't find. Can you post info again? PLEASE :- ) ) .

Though they are still committed to their 'long-term' stocks/funds and will not/cannot pull out ( nor should they ) , I would be more comfortable if they were spread out in this respect. Or should he dump 10 grand into bullion?? and forget the 'gold-dog' stocks?? 20 grand...30 grand??...I know what you'll say Puetz ;- )

Gang, much appreciated. Thanks in advance.

EB AWAY

what the hell am I doing here anyway...it's a BIG weekend...see ya!

I know you kitco locals have done this before many times but it's always nice to update your picks, right? I will really, really, REALLY, appreciate your feedback.

Right on!

emb

Vronsky: liked your open letter from the former Emperor of China.
Your linguistic talents along with those of Donald's re: Brazilian story from O'Globo in portuguese ( ..they're talking panic )
Tumulto nos mercados da sia provoca especulao com
o cmbio no Brasil

A agitao nas bolsas de valores no Brasil foi agravada ontem por uma correria
de empresas, fundos e bancos multinacionais em busca de proteo contra
mudanas na poltica cambial. Fortemente dependentes da estabilidade do
cmbio para darem boa rentabilidade para suas matrizes, esse grupo de
investidores pagou o preo que foi necessrio para minimizar o risco de
sofrerem no Brasil perda semelhante s que se acumulam na sia. A procura
por ttulos indexados ao dlar foi enorme e as cotaes projetadas nos
contratos futuros subiram como um foguete.

Esse era o pano de fundo, mas uma srie de outros fatores contriburam para
que o dia fosse ainda mais tumultuado. Correram pelas mesas de operao dos
bancos cpias de um artigo da revista "Business Week", que sai na edio de
hoje, comparando o real ao baht, da Tailndia. O texto insinua, logo na abertura,
que boatos no mercado brasileiro prevem para a moeda local o mesmo futuro
da tailandesa, desvalorizada em mais de 20% desde que o pas foi obrigado a
abandonar o regime cambial anterior.

O ministro da Indstria e do Comrcio, Francisco Dornelles, deu contribuio
involuntria para o caos no mercado ao dizer que esperava um dficit de US$
400 milhes na balana comercial de agosto. A previso assustou o mercado:
at a vspera, os nmeros divulgados pelo Sistema Integrado de Comrcio
Exterior ( Siscomex ) , do prprio ministrio, indicavam um dficit acumulado de
apenas US$ 262 milhes. A soma das duas informaes indicava que, no ltimo
dia til do ms ( ontem ) , a demanda por dlares seria muito forte.

O temor de uma desvalorizao brusca no real era relativamente remoto, mas os
administradores de recursos do exterior ficaram sem alternativas. , na
definio de operadores de mercado, uma questo de defesa do prprio
emprego: mesmo os que no acreditam em uma queda real da moeda no tm
como explicar a seus chefes, no exterior, que no fizeram qualquer esforo no
sentido de evitar o risco de perda cambial.

- Melhor pagar 1% de prmio a quem oferece proteo do que se arriscar a
enfrentar uma desvalorizao de 20% pela frente - resume um analista.

O leilo de ttulos de renda fixa indexados ao dlar que o Banco Central fez
ontem, por isso, foi extremamente concorrido. Duas sries de ttulos foram
vendidas, com prazos de vencimento de trs e de cinco anos, e o BC ainda se
viu obrigado a rejeitar um grande nmero de propostas.

O ttulo de prazo mais curto, uma Nota do Tesouro Nacional ( NTN ) de trs anos,
foi vendida com taxa de 10,20% de juros ao ano. O BC vendeu toda a emisso,
de US$ 800 milhes, e ainda precisou dispensar 63% das propostas de compra
que lhe foram enviadas para essa srie. O outro papel, uma Letra do Tesouro
Nacional ( LTN ) de cinco anos, saiu com taxa parecida, de 10,25% ao ano, e
teve colocada integralmente tambm um lote de US$ 300 milhes. Ficaram de
fora propostas equivalentes a 25% desse valor vendido pelo BC.

Foi a primeira vez que o Governo vendeu papis de prazo to longo. Para o
investidor que procura apenas o hedge - a proteo contra as oscilaes no
cmbio - o ttulos  excelente: congela a atual taxa de cmbio e ainda permite
diluir os riscos de uma desvalordo Sudeste da sia no deixou alternativas: a
procura por ttulos indexados ao dlar foi enorme e as cotaes indicadas pelos
contratos futuros de dlar dispararam. Os mais cticos quanto s possibilidades
de uma queda forte do real tiveram que se render ao fato de que, para um
investidor izao do real durante todo o prazo de vencimento.
Mais informaes:


Pnico toma conta
das bolsas

I see you're around here today. You had a good suggestion about some Canadian municipal fund?? or something like that. What was it and were you serious? Thanks and good day. Do you golf??

EB

Some people in China do not favour "strategic dialogue", arguing that
the US is now carrying on a "containment" policy towards China.
They give a full list of reasons: the renewal of the US-Japan security
alliance, the pressures put on China by the Americans on the World
Trade Organisation ( WTO ) issue, the intervention in Chinese
domestic affairs, and so forth. Time is not ripe, they argue, for Jiang
to pay a state visit to an America which is so hostile to China.
http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/pages/focus51.html

Donald, that's OK, you do not have to research, for a reference.
I was just interested. I also understood, the situation as you recall.
Thanks again, take care.

Hashimoto's teflon image is facing another stiff challenge over the
ongoing review of guidelines for US-Japan defence cooperation. The
draft guidelines fall short of committing Japan to an active combat
role, but they do stretch the envelope of what constitutes defence and
clarify what Japan will and will not do in the event of regional
hostilities. The allergic reaction in Beijing to the evident strengthening
of security cooperation suggests that the new guidelines are being
taken seriously and will have a significant impact. Japan still shies
from embracing a doctrine of collective self-defence, but is showing a
willingness to provide far more extensive support of US combat
operations in the event of a regional crisis. The top government
spokesman recently confirmed that the new guidelines would cover
logistical support for US forces involved in emergencies in the Taiwan
Strait, a position which has provoked Chinese ire. The focus of the
review is ensuring that Japan can provide logistical support in the
event of a crisis on the Korean Peninsula.
http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/pages/focus54.html

Puetz: Thanks for the write up re: the changing pattern of last 30 minute action and its significance. I too have noted this shift, but had not realized how closely it mirrors index fund inflows and outflows.

Robert McKinnon,
The person is Steve Puetz.

EB - I received these recommendations this morning.

"Barrick Gold ( ABX 23 NYSE ) now has reserves of more than 51 million
ounces," notes Gregory Weiss ( Investment Quality Trends, 7440 Girard Ave.,
Ste. #4, La Jolla, CA 92037, 24 issues, $275, 8/15/97 ) . "It is the world's
most profitable gold company and the second-largest producer, with annual
production of more than three million ounces. Barrick owns 11 producing
mines in the U.S., Canada and Chile. In addition, the company has two new
mines under development which are expected to produce roughly one million
ounces annually. No other gold mining company makes more money for its
shareholders than Barrick. The company's successful financial results
reflect a combination of low-cost production, quality management and
high-capacity mines. At $193 per ounce, cash operating costs are 28% lower
than the western world average of $269 per ounce. Growth has come via
strategic acquisitions, and through last year's purchase of Arequipa
Resources Ltd., Barrick acquired 48 promising new properties in Peru.
Despite a strong year operationally, net income last year was down 27% to
$0.60 per share. This was due to a one-time charge of $0.10 per share taken
on a new Peruvian project, higher operating costs and increased exploration
expenses. Over the past two years, Barrick has generated nearly $1 billion
in cash flow. Earnings have increased in 11 of the past 12 years. Since
1996, Barrick shares have followed the down trend in gold prices, placing
the stock squarely in the undervalued category. Based on the current
dividend of $0.16 per share ( raised last year by 14% ) , there is 121% upside
potential and minimal downside risk. When inflation rises, so does gold.
Many economic indicators currently point to a likelihood of some
inflationary pressure in the near future. This, plus Barrick's low cost
production and robust mining growth, add up well. Indeed, Barrick looks
`good as gold', and we recommend purchase."

"In June 1997, Franco-Nevada Mining ( FN 33 1/3 Toronto ) hit a new all-time
high while the gold bullion price was about to fall out of bed," says
Charles Allmon ( Growth Stock Outlook, P.O. Box 15381, Chevy Chase, MD
20825, 24 issues, $195, 8/1/97 ) . "Right now, about half of the world's gold
mines cannot turn a profit after the recent price decline. South Africa
could be just about out of business due to high and rising gold production
costs. Perhaps the world's premier gold play, Franco-Nevada Mining's
revenues have been up 11 consecutive years while earnings have been up 10
years, and we challenge anyone to show us a company with a better balance
sheet. Major gold assets include royalties and working interest in the
Carlin Trend of Nevada and in three Canadian major gold operations. In
addition, Franco-Nevada holds royalties in over 1.9 million acres of oil
and gas properties. Oil and gas revenues were up 104% in fiscal 1997.
Indeed, in late June, Franco-Nevada management forecasted a 400% higher
cash flow over the next five years. That's incredible growth. Investors who
own shares should hang on to them. "

Will they buy US $ or GOLD?
In an interview to Reuter, Chidambaram said there was no target
for foreign exchange reserves."China has got reserves of $120
billion. Why should anybody at $30 billion feel that the reserves
are comfortably high?" he said.
http://www.expressindia.com/fe/daily/19970830/24255643.html

EB: I own some Central Fund of Canada, CEF on the AMEX. It is a PM fund that hold silver and gold in bullion form. It also trades in Canada but I don't know the symbol.

nomercy: Thx for posting the Brazilian article. It appears Brazil may follow Thailand in a 20% devaluation. All that is necessary to make it a certainty is for the Brazilian governement to DENY that the Real will be devalued. A large devaluation in the Real will have an adverse domino effect on its South American trading partners - especially Argentina. This will put significant downward pressure on the Argentine Peso - which for a few years has maintained parity with the U.S. dollar. Methinks these falling-domino devaluations may find the last one in our own backyard.

I seem to recall a Red Baron articleat GOLD-EAGLE mentioning that Brazil had reportedly sold gold calls and made gold loans on 100% of their Central Banks gold reserves. Also, I recall that the Presdent of Brazil's Central Bank just recently resigned his post. Perhaps there is a tie-in to all of these unpleasant financial occurances and draconian weakening of the Brazilian currency. In any case Brazilian stocks are being battered - and a lot of hard earned sweat ( ie savings of the working class ) is and will continue to evaporate. E uma lastima!

You asked "Which info. has relevance"? OK, well my investment philosophy solidified in 1989 ( not 87 ) . I was just another dork in 1987, still a gold bug and gold shares bug ( whihc was all I held at the time ) , until I got smart and started believing the well proven conventional wisdom that MOST people will make far more long term gains by adopting a dollar cost averaging "buy and hold" philosophy, that a philosophy that tries to follow all kinds of "Oh so clever" analysis based on exotic little known models that the masses and just too "dumb" to understand because they are sol "fooled" by the Govt. and their own sheep like tendencies. However, I am currently violating my "buy and hold" philosophy to try and benefit from a long awaited market pull back. I averaged "out" starting at 8100 and finished around 7800. I'll be back "in" starting at 7100. WHY am I violating my long term strategy? because I felt the run from 6K to 8K was too fast, P/E's are too high, valuations about 20% over where they should be, no good news left to drive the market higher, and there is some historical precedent for fall doldrums. My current play on market volatility is not really "smart" as I could well miss a nig move up, but like many here, I'm trying to second guess the masses. Like few here however, I have NOT missed the greatest bull market in history! In the long run ( next 2 years ) we have DOW 10,000 to look forward to.

( Unable to shut his yap, and quit hornblowing....GW )

REF: APH ( Two Gold Picks ) : Here are three articles discribing the potential of this great gold company:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines628.html
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines620.html
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines614.html

One more comment, ( sorry, I can't resist ) . I've watched with great interest for years as "analysts" of the contrarian stripe have discussed all these "advanced" concepts such as deficit/money supply figures, foreign currency devaluations, Government manipulation of the inflation figues, Elliot wave ( and similar ) type theories, and on and on and on ad nauseum. They all sound OH SO sophisticated when charted, graphed, and discussed by the "brilliant" minds postulating their theoroms, but there's just ONE SMALL LITTLE PROBLEM. These folks have been WRONG, far more often than they've been RIGHT to the tune of multiples of HUNDREDS of percent in lost market gains, as they tell us year after year ( since DOW 2000 or so ) that the market will be crashing next week. Meanwhile, their much "dumber" cousins, you know, the boring conventional market analysts have made their constinuencies 400% or so in 10 years, not to mention a few hundred percent in the preceeding years with a few exception such as the "Carter" 70's. I'll just remain a dumb country bumpkin and make a few thousand more the next couple years and remain "stupidly ignorantly naively sheeplike" if that's OK......

6PAK: I found a section that pertains to bank employees but not to the public in general. I will keep looking.

Sec. 400.735-14 General conduct prejudicial to the Bank.

-TEXT-

A Bank employee shall not engage in criminal, infamous,
dishonest, immoral, or notoriously disgraceful conduct, or other
conduct prejudicial to the Bank. A Bank employee shall avoid any
action, whether or not specifically prohibited in this subpart A,
which might result in, or create the appearance of:
( a ) Using public office for private gain;
( b ) Giving preferential treatment to any person;
( c ) Impeding Bank efficiency or economy;
( d ) Losing complete independence or impartiality;
( e ) Making a Bank decision outside official channels; or
( f ) Affecting adversely the confidence of the public in the
integrity of the Bank.

SHEK, Thanks. I'll look under PUETZ postings.

On the positive and serious side, ( don't want to be overly shrill every moment ) , there is good news for Gold & Silver bugs. In the Numsmatic community ( with which I am very familiar ) , the trend this past summer has been a FAR HIGHER volume in sales of Gold & silver coin than in the past 8 years. Prices are increasing nicely in several categories of coin ( High grade Morgan silver dollars for example ) . Gold coins, while down at bargain prices, are moving at much higher volume than in recent years. I'm not sure whether there is a direct correlation between collector sentiment and the MUCH broader precious metals markets, but it is an interesting trend after so many consecutive "down" years in the coin world.

"WHY am I violating my long term strategy? because I felt the
run from 6K to 8K was too fast, P/E's are too high, valuations
about 20% over where they should be"


In other words, Guess Who is basing his decision on worthless
"historical" information. : ) Thanks, I need a laugh.

Can Guess Who at least give us some kind of reasoning that
his own personal preferences in information are better than
anyone else's, or is he planning to sell the secrets in
newsletter? : )

"Valuations are 20% over where they SHOULD be"???? According
to who, Alan Greenspan? Do we have a fan of the Greenspan clan?
Bart Simpson, BAN this BAN, he won't hold to the plan! Kick
his can, he hit and ran!

So. In other words, you've basing your decisions on "intuition".

Which, having dealt with my wife for several years now, I can
not argue with. However, you should state this, you have a
"fiduciary responsibility" to the old ladies out here. : )

Thanks Guess Who.

EB: I won't tell your dad how to "invest" his money ( my handle summarizes my knowledge of the investment world ) but I will share a tip with you. When I want to "throw away" money on gold I buy my wife things like cat coins or panda coins ( at higher premiums than I like ) then put them in bezels for her to wear until she gets tired of them. The US Liberty fractional ounce coins have a lower premium but they are made of electrum, which has a whitish cast.

Deep slide in Mexican peso.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/29/z0009_125.html

Heh heh. Guess Who now quotes "increased coin sales" as
a reason to buy into numismatic coins. : ) Heck, Who,
that sounds like some kinda dang "technical analysis" to me. : )

Well, I could brag about my own change of status from 92 to
96, but I've had about 30% of it wiped out now, most of it
not by "investment", but poor ( in retrospect ) decisions.

James Davidson, _The Great Reckoning_, moved my net worth
from 6K to six digits in six years.

Fact - promises against real goods are being made faster than
goods and services to satisfy those claims. 1 + 1 != 3, even
if the DJIA and Uncle Sam tell you so.

Remedy for a three day wait:

http://junior.apk.net/~jbarta/idiot/idiot.html

EB: I have a set of clubs and live close enough to a course to walk there but rarely golf. It's a great place to ride my bike though. Over there all the time. The only reason I have the clubs is because I did some work for a guy and he couldn't pay me. He offered a set of clubs and I accepted. Just like the Depression when you pay the doctor with a chicken.

Sure I'm basing my decisions on historical info. And basic common sense. And the consensus of the vast majority of convsntional market analysts. You "Rocket Scientists" ( Pardon me while I smile at the irony of the term since that's my field ) are the ones losing your behinds by buying into every exotic theory that has a veneer of advanced analytical modeling behind it, ( No matter how faulty the foundational premises ) . And BTW, I'm not selling newsletters or books so I'm not too worried about little old ladies losing money based on my advice. Too bad though that I wasn't able to intercept some of the thousands who HAVE bought into "Gloom and Doom" scenarios these past 10 years, to the extreme detriment of their retirement savings. I know of a specific couple who lost big time money ( instead of making big time money ) where it's really hurt their lifestyle. Maybe someone out there will be swayed by an "opposing view" to the prevailing "wisdom" here. One can only hope so. Now excuse me for any self righteous, condescending, terseness in my tone, I get cranky just before dinner..... And I'm worried about whether the Niners will win tomorrow! Back to your charts & graphs dude, I have beers to drink. ( Proloteriat naive bumpkin that I am )

You know, Guess Who, the more I read your lyrics, the more you
sound like "The Greater Fool" who was slightly faster on the
trigger than the average fool. Me, I don't believe for one
*second* that I can predict the Crash. What I do know is
that a great deal of paper promises have been made that can
NOT be honored under today's physical laws of time and space.

If I have a company, and I sell ten apples per day, but grow
and deliver five, constantly shifting my deliveries into the
future, I know for a FACT that this company will fail.

If everyone is the United States is implicitly being promised
a yearly total of $600B goods & services, while only $250B
are being produced, I know for a FACT that somebody, somewhere,
will be holding a total of $350B of bad promises that will NEVER
be honored.

I watch for several things, but the most important is that at
some point, I personally have to see the ratio of promises/goods
drop below 1.00.

Feel free to argue this point.

I will repeat to you, Mr. Who. Thanks largely to James Davidson,
and Albert Malabre, I increased my total net worth by over $100k
over a six year period.

I don't call this "losing my behind". What lost my behind is
the complete breakdown in moral values and common sense in
this country, where a sociopathic creepball can purposely
sabotage computer data and networks, imitate our current
president by saying, "It was just a mistake", or "It was
somebody else", and then be BELIEVED, despite astronomical
odds against successive "accidents".

VRONSKY: That Mexican post was for you. This administration has been bragging that the Mexicans paid of the 40 billion 1994 bailout. Let me tell you the truth about that. The US made a 40 billion payment to the IMF with the provision that it would be loaned to Mexico. Mexico then paid the US. Mexico still owes the 40 billion to the IMF and we are 40 billion out of pocket. The whole thing was a shell game. Now this currency slide seems to be headed south of the border. Woe is us.

Chestthumper: ( you know who you are ) Everybody's hindsight is 20/20. When you sold your stocks, you ceased to be an investor and became a trader. You picked an exit point that has in retrospect, turned out to be the right play. In other words, you got lucky. Do the same thing more than once or twice, or better yet, do it every day like Glenn and RJ et. al. and then come back and brag. Buy and hold investors who began this July or last week ( listening to guys like you ) are behind! They have lost money, especially if they got into index funds. If they bought in July and this correction turns ugly, they may have to wait years to break even. Buy and hold investors who began at the top in 1929 didn't break even until 1951!!! Renew your vow of silence.

Footnote: A buy and hold investor who began in the early 80's with Microsoft, now holds the stock at a cost basis of about $8. It will take one hell of a drop to bust MSFT back to 8! A person who bought MSFT in July may have to wait quite a while to break even. It takes more than brains to make a pick and stay with it or dump it.

Puetz: I've been waiting for you to make this point, but you either made it while I wasn't looking or are distracted by football. : ) The point being that a buy and hold investor who holds all the way to the bottom of your predicted collapse, will come away with little or nothing, after 15 years of brilliance followed by a couple of months of denial. Timing is everything and that's the most I've said in along time!

How Soros Makes Billions...
Soros' Quantum Fund makes money by anticipating economic shifts around
the world. In 1992 Soros thought the British pound would lose value
because of political and economic pressures. He borrowed billions of
pounds and converted them to German marks. When the pound collapsed
Sept. 16, Soros repaid the pounds at the lower rate and pocketed the
difference. His profit: $1 billion.

...And Gives Away Millions

In 1996 Soros' foundations distributed $360 million for projects all over the
world. Some countries received more money from Soros during the year
than from the U.S. government.
BLUE TYPE shows where Soros
outgave the U.S. Government
Amount Soros
Gave in 1996
U.S. Aid in 1996
1
Russia
$24,198,000
$108,140,000
2
Hungary
$15,769,000
$15,096,000
3
Ukraine
$15,323,000
$141,100,000
4
Yugoslavia
$11,180,000
0
5
Albania
$10,219,000
$19,900,000
6
Romania
$10,180,000
$28,680,000
7
Bulgaria
$9,326,000
$27,865,000
8
Bosnia
$8,869,000
$245,294,000
9
Poland
$7,568,000
$44,445,000
10
Belarus
$6,019,000
$4,600,000
Sources: Open Society Institute; U.S. Agency for International
Development

My take is that the paper will continue to wad up this coming week and gold and silver will begin to gleam. Everyone should wish Ted happy bithday tomorrow. He may be another year older but he is another year prettier; or at least so I have heard. Since the markets are closed I think I'll tee off with a bit of a joke.

The same foursome played every day at ten o'clock. They were known as
the three-hour gang, always finished by 1pm so they could play gin all afternoon. One eventful day, they ran into a foursome ahead of them,
playing incredibly slow. The guys in the three-hour gang waved and waved
at each tee, but the group ahead never moved aside to let them through.
After a frustrating five and one-half hour round, the gang came into the men's bar fuming. The slow group was at a table across the room and the
whole bar could hear the cussing coming from the gang. Finally, the
waitress approached the gang and said, "You guys should lighten up. That
group you're cussing out?....they can't see. They're blind golfers and I
think it's great they can even play!"
The first player in the gang felt terrible and told the waitress,
"You're right, tell you what..send them over a round of drinks on me!"
The second guy told the waitress to put the blind golfers' lunches on
his tab. The third guy sent a caddie to the pro shop for four sleeves of
balls to present to the blind golfers. Everyone looked at the fourth guy. "Screw 'em", he grumbled, "Tell those idiots to play at night!"

Goddamn, I get so tired of this. The Mexican SHILL game
was FREELY available, the INFORMATION was there, for anyone
that WANTED to see it.

That's right, we're SCREWED for $40B. At the least. There's
no telling what kind of deal Greenspan cut with Japan two
years ago, which was ALSO a "rumor on the Internet" at the
time, until it was CONFIRMED late last year.

But, no, NO, NO, when I posted Donald's previous explanation,
over a year ago, NOPE, I'm just a DANG CONSPIRACY NUTBALL.

Yo, GuessWho. I will repeat ONE MORE TIME.

"Waco: The Rules of Engagement". See it for yourself if
you believe that our media is working properly.

Egyptian gold and silver figures. Production?
http://www.arabicnews.com:80/ansub/Daily/Day/970826/1997082608.html

WHO CARES: I wasn't on Kitco a year ago so I didn't know it was posted. Yes. It is old "news" but you really had to dig to get it.

What, does everyone think that Uncle Sam is going to shout out
on television, "HEY, the money really IS WORTHLESS, chumps!"?

Come on. I can just see President Clinton on television, during
an emergency broadcast...

"My fellow dupe and stooges, for the past seven years, your
loyal government workers have been staving off the bankruptcy
of the Federal government. But now, the time has come, to
tell you...

that..

IT"S PANIC TIME!!!! RUN!!!!! BUY GOLD! BUY MARKS! "

I'm out of here, I'm too annoyed by the whole thing.

Mexican bailout - I didn't post it here. In fact, *I* didn't
even figure it out, I was just smart enough to the guy who DID
figure it out and posted the numbers and shilling process, i.e.
through the World Bank / IMF, or whatever it was.

But, clearly, our government has LIED to us about. Our media
has KNOWINGLY repeated those lies, since the real information
was freely available ON THE INTERNET.

Speed: We can all understand that you don't want to identify yourself but could you at least identify the name you are talking to?

I believe the analyst's name was Christoper Whalen, he's done
some really good work on Mexican analysis. Predicted the
peso collapse almost two years prior, and the dive followed
his scenario almost to the letter.

I *believe*, but I could be wrong, like I was about the 15
Chinese carriers, that late last year, he posted his newsletter
on-line which described the Bailout fraud, and predicted a
complete loss of the $40B, another peso devaluation, subsequent
market crash in Mexico.

I'll see if I can find it.

DAng, how the HELL are you supposed to make good decisions
when everyone is feeding out bad information. Like the
Deficit. I *LOVE* that one. Actual deficit, to date, for
this year is at LEAST $200B, according to the Treasury site,
which I don't trust anymore, but I trust more than the OMB,
Congress or Clinton. In that order.

But, hey, I'm just a nutball, so it doesn't matter.

A more economically and socially just society will grow out of a meltdown as Wall St loses power versus the progressive working people. We will need to reorganize society so that the rewards of toil are not so lopsided for capital versus labor. God Bless The Teamsters. Ron Carey was done in by subordinate outside contractors. Go Labor!! "Striking" the first blow begins the journey back to justice!!

I'm not berating you, Donald. I'm just annoyed at this GAME
that's being played out. In 1992 or 93, James Grant PREDICTED
and BET that Citibank would fail.

"Er, nope, nope, never happened". So GRant is discredited.

And last year, LO AND BEHOLD, Citibank really DID fail, but
the Feds bailed it out and covered it up.

It's just annoying to me. To watch guys like LurkingGBug who
doesn't seem to have a clue that Uncle Sam is constantly running
to and fro, propping stuff up, as GB makes tons of fake money
in total ignorance of his risk factor.

Yes, you're right, pulling out was a "luck" play based on some intuitve beliefs and history. As I said before, most folks in for the long haul should "buy and hold". As to Greenspan, just when was it in history when we've had such a stable economy with so much good news? Hmmm? Is the glass half empty of half full?? Ahh if only we could return to the "good old days" of currency tied to the gold standard, like during the great depression... how I long for those days... ethical and moral as they were and all.... Well, gotta take my family out to dinner now with some of this worthless paper currency before it evaporates before my very eyes ( or converted to PESO's ) ...later....

Ahh yes WW, words of wisdom from the 60's. Will you be founding a "third party" so we can join and enjoy the prosperity of a "Workers Paradise" such as the former Soviets enjoy? ( Not to mention the wealth of plenty being enjoyed by CUBA and the North Koreans today... ) Bring on that wealth transfer! Let's all be equal!! Social idealogies breed goodness and wealth for all!!

How will this impact gold prices?
http://www.businessweek.com:80/1997/36/b3543097.htm

Re your Citibank comments, does this mean I should forego my worthless paper money and just use my Citibank VISA card? I could get a double whammy, but goods and services using a pretend financial institution charge card and repay it with "funny money" printed by the treasury! Best of both worlds! life is sweeeeeet....

Re your comparisons with 1929 and "break even" points. At the risk of bringing on the usual ridicule about this commonly used phrase, "This ain't 1929 pal". We a diversified economy, excellent global trade and influence, ultra low unemployment, low energy and commodity prices, high productivity and diversification, dropping deficit, Tax break coming, incresingly imroved standard of living, strong management and profit picture, broad distribution of wealth, and I could go on. What more do you guy's want? Sheeeesh. ( Yeah I know, I know, all the numbers are just phony ones made up by the Govt. and all the prospererity I see surrounding me is an illusion ) By the way, I'm enjoying my new collection of Platinum Proofs I bought with that phony paper. Hah! Can you BELIEVE The ignorance of the Treasury dept.!! On one hand they print phony money, and then their MINT branch accepts that some phony money for precious metal Proof coins! Those naive chumps!!

One more thing... In 29 we didn't have any of the market controls we have now or the limitless inflow to mutual funds from 401K plans, or the diversication strategies, or....any of a million other differences. Crash? Come now! Puetz won't even take a 2 to 1 odds wager on his "70% probable" crash scenario!! Balls boys, grow em and use em.

Now then, shall we plot "Buy and hold" and the S&P 500 or the DOW at 5% of say $80K a year, from the time of 401K legislation until today..vs. that same investment in gold, silver, or any well known mining stock fund???? Ohh how I'd love to have you boys at the poker table, you could tell me what terrible plays I'm making as I take your cash!! ( Like they do at Bay 101 every Friday night.... )

WW: God bless you New England liberals - you live in a fantasy world of wealth & good things, championing the poor, but I *seriously* doubt you'd EVER have anything to do with the poor laboring proles except parasitize off of their minimum wages via taxes & rigged legal system. Let the "poor" attend a Lincoln Center opera, brush elboes with them sipping champaigne, and the snobbish, "cultured" liberals would have holy hell fits. But soft, let us turn the tables, you being a lawyer - the equivalent of your "corrupt, greedy capitalists" - and predict the equivalent overthrow of your monopoly of the law and its return to the proles control, from the hands of the controlling, liberal legal profession. Screams of outrage. Sound of herd o'cats being boiled alive!
Jam yesterday, and jam tomorrow, but never jam today!

GUESS WHO: OK, enuf time has gone by. May I guess now? You are lurkerGbug! Am I right? Do I win the $1500?

Yes, you heard me right...BOSNIA!..."Things" heating up there and the USA is on the verge of making a BIG mistake by threatening the Serbs...Now they're damned if they do and damned if they don't and have effectively painted themselves into a dangerous corner...This could evolve into the CATALYST that ignites GOLD and really does a # on the equity markets...
Picked up a book ( Fear,Greed and the End Of The Rainbow,written by Andrew Sarlos and published by Key Porter Books ( Toronto ) today and so far it is an interesting book on "guarding your assets in the comming bear market".......EB: I'm in ABX and also like NEM.....Tort: naughty boy! yer next....Cozy little scene here with a spruce fire in the fireplace crackling away and "the wife" passing out to mysteries of the bible on A+E...do ya blame her???? Look what FOUR years of religious school did to me...hahaha....four years of church seven days a week....four years of theology.....four years of out-lining the old + new testament...and look @ ME...Am rambling ( again ) away from the subject of the discussion group which is...um...ah...let's see...duh...GOLD...and my gut fear that once AGAIN the SERBS will be centrally involved in a world crisis...how's that fer doom+ gloom...not bad ...eh!...course there's always the possibility that if a crisis breaks out there,the dollar will soar and then gold will
....crash too....is this a "new era" where the OLD safe-havens no longer protect us and currencies are the only game in town???...my gut feeling ( again ) tells me gold will soar if trouble breaks out in BOSNIA cause after an initial jump in the Dollar the tide will turn against the USA-NATO as the SERBS are not great folks to get into a blood-feud with......Cringed when I heard the EMPTY THREATS ( or foolish ) made by some USA state dept flunkie,that threatened the irrational+ and extreme Serbs.....One RAINY DAY AND I SEE ARMAGEDDON commin at us like a freight train with all the break pads totally BURNT...

Bears assault the Japanese Yen.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/29/z0009_102.html

ROBERT McKINNON: Steve Puetz' assessment of Sept 16 being a panic phase date for this correction ( or Bear ) is very interesting. I believe he is basing it on eclipse phenomena. I have recently been contacted by my previous Astrological Investor interviewee Mr Chad Meek, the colorful and
brilliant natural resource executive and astrologer. Chad went on
record in public that July 28 would mark the start of a bear market in
stocks, and he was only about 4 days off from the very top. I daresay
he is so far the most accurate predictor of the turning point in stocks
so far. What is more intriguing is that he now tells me that "September
8th will be a very Black Monday." He foresees a stock decline on or
around that date of 300-500 points! He claims to be "75%" certain of
this. For those who wish to comment on this, please remember this is Mr
Meek speaking, not me. Perhaps Kitcoites have a clue here to follow. Let us see which, if either of these astute gentlemen are correct, or closest to predicting the eye of the storm.

Vat? Iz haf problem vit Yen? Vill gif more newz?

But my game plan remains unchanged and will keep my "essential" stocks in DRIP....drip...drip...drip...drip...Will XON cut of elininate their dividend....doubt it....how bout SBC...ditto.....Bein @ this site I'm startin ta get the feelin I'm standing on the bridge of the TITANIC but what the hell....ya only go around once ....eh..!

SURE you win the $1,500!! But first you have to put up $1,000 to my $500 and wager the DOW will decline 35% by 10/31/97 as Puetz first agreed to do, ( and then quickly weasled out of... ) !!! SPUD, I bet WW really LOVES that fairest of all social programs, the SSI tax. Steal from the poor and give to the...who is it again who gets all that money? Not us working chumps! Thank God for the 401K ( which will keep our market going in perpetuity against all known Newtonian laws.... )

Lucky Luciano on biography ( A+E ) ....now there's a guy who knew how ta make a buck....quick-like!

TED: I thought that bb fisher gave some good advice when he suggested selling call options on stocks.

More predicitve models based on ECLIPSES!! I am EATING this UP!! Gawd you have a fantastic sense of humour Mike. I can't top that one, so I'll log off now. No need to watch Saturday Night Live tonight after this...

KGB: Here is more Yen news. You better get in touch with your driver.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/29/z0006_z00_3.html

LGB: God knows...what will happen Tuesday.........Donald: ya tryin ta convert me er somethin????....

EB re your request for info on buying Aussie gold nuggets. The Perth Mint will lock in the days price over the phone ( + @6% ) on nuggets,gold bars, platinum koalas etc. If you buy kilo bars markup is less. They will buy back at spot, so your turnaround is @6%. They will send them to you in a plain paper package--so don't worry as your neighbors will just think you're buying some porno! Insurance at a small extra. You can also store them at the mint for a 25cent per $1000 fee/month and then sell by phone at the days price. So very risk free if you think the price is going up.For a fax with all the details you can phone Gordon Smith at the Perth Mint on 08 9421 7420 or fax him on 08 9221 9804. Don't forget the time difference if you want to talk to him. When you quote him your phone/fax number preface it with 0011 1 ( then your area code etc. ) By the way EB, I enjoy your comments. You remind me of "flower power" and the Berkely scene of the 60,s. P.S. I,m a graduate of Whittier College in Calif. Cheers S,bum

Guess Who ( 19:23 ) Right on dude!......Vermont suks...eh...WW..

Iz no fone in truk. Iz kall Mongolian rest stop Ulan Bator. Vill gif noo price. Thanx for newz.

TED: Naw. I think you are a closet bear or you wouldn't be at this site every day. You are just testing us to be sure we are resolute. You are probably shorter than Puetz already.

Does anyone know the make up of the work force in the S African mines now. Are they still depending on migrant labor?

REF: Mike Sheller ( You are not alone, alone, alone... ) : I think it would be interesting for all to re-read the interview of Entrepreneur & Astrologer:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/astro721.html

LurkingGbug aka Guess Who: An investor in 1929 "knew" the market could only go up forever because the powerful Federal Reserve had been created and existed to forever abolish unruly business cycles. Sound familiar? Maybe your hindsight isn't 20-20. The newly minted trading rules have failed to prevent the 700 point drop in the dow over the past 3 weeks. They failed to prevent the 192 point drop caused by Hashimoto's "sell bonds, buy gold" barb flung at BC. They will continue to fail. It amuses me to be sarcastically lumped in with Mike Sheller, Puetz and "Who Cares", because from my vantage point, I'm in good company.

Have always seen the glass as half-empty.....a product of the "60's"...

Where is Bernatz de Ventra dim with his great wit and attack mode against the pro working person perspective!!

Royalty disputes at Argentine mines.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/27/rom_y0023_1.html

But Speed, I'm not arguing slyrocketing DOW climbs forever. I'm all for a pullback, cheering it on in fact so I can get back in at 7.1K or less. But a crash?? Come come now, with all the other economical fundamentals looking so rosy? 1929 market was all speculators. Today you have Boomers saving for retirement with no place else to go but their 401K plans. Billions flowing into their funds EVERY week. from their paychecks. Unless and until the economy is signaling "depression" ( Which it SURE ain't doin at the moment ) no crash looms for years to come....

Just heard on the news that Princess Di and her Arab boyfriend Dodi Al Fayed in a car accident while trying to escape the papparatzi. Early reports that he is dead and she seriously injured. Bet this takes up ALL the world headlines instead of financial woes.

"THE COMING COMPETING CURRENCY DEVALUATIONS" - Dines reviews spate of currency devaluations in Far-East. He aptly exposes Central Bank folly of increasing rates to defend their currency:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines830.html

naw??? or gnaw???? this has quite a connotative
dichhometrical inclination! in s. texas we say gnaw!
in s. cen. texas THEY say naw!~! see!!!!! the gumbies
are inherently able to match intrinsic abilities due
to default!!!!!! the smoke-signals are choking
the vessicles of perception! may the hep-rat AND
his spawn be Exposed for the rif-rat they are!!

moron or dilettnate of the oppressed?

teddy,------- tedddy,.......----the signals have your
url........ !; ) ----------------

cherokee!; ) visiting-the-brother-of-giants----------

Donald: Just wanted to thank you for all of the news links. I could never keep up if it weren't for you and all the others who share items of interest.

I stopped posting here regularly over 6 months ago. I check the site rather regularly, especially on the weekends. The noise and foolishness that appeared regularly from posters whose names do not merit mention among the jewels from the likes of GS Cole, DA, BB Fisher, Aurophile, etc., had something to do with it, but, mostly, I just dont feel comfortable being short gold and long Spoos on a channel that loves gold and features daily calls for a stock market crash.

Ther WILL be a crash. And it will destroy utterly the wealth of the baby boomer generation. But it is NOT imminent. The market has very strong internals. Friday's sell-off saw new highs 4 times new lows, decliners only 162 above advancers, and over half the new lows were closed-end Asian funds.The market may go lower from here, but it wont go MUCH lower before new highs are made. Its now been 2 weeks since we made a new low. A drop to the 880 level would be quite permissible in a strong bull market. 830-840 does no REAL damage to the bull case. When this market is ready for serious downward action, you'll see new lows at 50+ for several days in a row, while the market is rallying. Short THAT rally. Shorting this pullback from these levels is folly. If we have a big day of selling, like 4/11/97, I'll be buying with both hands.

Gold is in a bear market. It is consolidating before one more push down to what MAY be the low. I added to my shorts this past week.

Nobody knows when major trends are going to end. All anyone can do is look at the charts and the fundamentals and decide what the trend IS. The present trend in any market, whether bull or bear, is what you must trade with or against. Since my Missus is accustomed to a certain lifestyle, and, since that lifestyle is financed by what I do every day in the market, I'm forced to take seriously what the market is telling me everyday. Stocks are a bull, gold is a bear. Both are correcting now, but the odds are overwhelming that the trends will continue when the consolidations are resolved in coming days. There are folks on this chat who know how to trade the markets, and there are some who are mere "fortunetellers". It behooves everyone to differentiate between the two and act accordingly. Money lost shorting a bull or buying a bear is gone forever. It will not be available for the glorious gains to be had when the new trends emerge. Good luck and good trading. I have company, so ~poof~ for now.

ww----

disiabilities due to phalanges-non-functionalitis'
is causal and pre-meditated. i'll swat ya later---

hey ted and earl...you too auric and geff------aND STRAD!!!
PLAy some dan....stellydan!!!!!!!!!!

CARL: There is surplus labor next door in Mozambique as per this story. Couldn't post the URL.
BACK FROM THE
BRINK

AFTER MARXISM, CIVIL WAR AND
FAMINE, MOZAMBIQUE BEGINS TO
REBUILD, AND OPENS ITS DOORS TO
INVESTORS

BY PETER HAWTHORNE/MAPUTO


Wallowing in nostalgia, a South African visitor to the
Polana Hotel, on the sweeping bluff overlooking the
Indian Ocean entrance to Maputo harbor, samples
grilled prawns, lobster curry and clams, washed down
with a classic Dao reserve wine. The service, like the
food, is five-star quality. "All we need now is for this
place to be called Lourenco Marques again," he says,
"and we're back to the good old days."

Though no one is suggesting that the harbor-capital
revert to its Portuguese name of 22 years ago, the
revival of the Polana, refurbished in all its colonial-style
splendor, is an indication that while Mozambique's
rehabilitation from 17 years of civil war still has a long
way to go, the country once rated as one of the poorest
in the world is beginning to look like an African success
story.

After its independence in 1975, when 500 years of
Portuguese influence was swept away by black
nationalist liberation forces, Mozambique was reduced
to an economic and social disaster. The pro-Marxist
FRELIMO government inherited a run-down country
that foreigners had abandoned, and proceeded to
collapse the economy even further by nationalization
that put it in the hands of incompetent managers. At the
same time, the government had to fight a civil war
against a black anti-communist resistance movement,
RENAMO, supported by the apartheid regime in South
Africa. Mozambique's misery was compounded by
years of the worst droughts in southern Africa's history.
A million people died in famine and war. Aid agencies
were dealing with l.5 million dislocados--homeless
refugees. With a per capita income of $80, the country
was a begging basket case.

Following the withdrawal of communist-bloc influence
and support in Africa, Mozambique began to move
away from Marxism. By 1992, with South Africa well
on the way to racial reform, the RENAMO opposition
had signed a peace treaty with the government of
President Joaquim Chissano, and in October 1994,
Mozambicans went to the polls to elect a FRELIMO
government and a RENAMO opposition.

Since then, Chissano's government has about-faced the
economy, from public to private. Under a five-year
program of strict financial discipline since 1995, most
state assets--70,000 businesses that included grocery
stores and dry cleaners--have been privatized, inflation
has fallen from 70% in 1994 to 5%, and the country
has opened wide its doors with generous incentives to
foreign investors. "We have land, we have labor, we
have ports. We have the vision to transform our
society," says Oldemiro Baloi, Mozambique's Minister
of Industry, Commerce and Tourism.

The present focus of this vision is the Maputo Corridor
project--a $590-million program to open South
Africa's eastern industrial area to Maputo and to
upgrade its railways and harbor facilities. Under a joint
deal with South Africa, work on a new $400-million
road from Witbank to Maputo is expected to start early
in 1998. Coupled with these plans are several industrial
projects, including the development of natural gas fields
at Pande, 600 km north of Maputo, by America's
Enron Corporation; the use of this gas for a
$100-million iron reduction plant outside the capital;
and the construction, beginning in October, of a $1.3
billion aluminium smelter. "Anyone skeptical about an
African renaissance should look at the Maputo
Corridor," says Maputo-based World Bank
representative Junaid Ahmad.

The Cabora Bassa hydroelectric project on the
Zambezi River, built before independence by a mainly
Portuguese and South African consortium and
mothballed ever since, is scheduled to be revived to
feed industrial growth. Ten foreign companies are
meanwhile exploring for oil.

Outside the capital, Mozambique is producing enough
food to feed itself for the first time in years. Refugees
from the civil war have returned to the land, and in the
fertile north crops are abundant. The northern port of
Beira also has planned a corridor integration program
with neighbors Zimbabwe and Malawi.

The U.N. monitoring of the end of the civil war and
ensuing general elections was a rare African success for
the world organization. International assistance was
once the only growth industry in Mozambique, but
today there are many more new private cars in Maputo
than aid agency vehicles.

Mozambique is still desperately poor. It has external
debts of $5 billion and doesn't make enough money to
pay the interest. Acknowledging its efforts to to pull
itself out of the mire of its past, a number of
international agencies, including Oxfam, are lobbying
the World Bank to reduce or cancel its debts.

In the red maybe, but in Maputo last week the lights
were up on the palm-lined beachfront, and teenagers in
the latest fashions were dancing at discos. And the
Polana, long accustomed to hosting Russian or East
German commissars, was instead the site of a
conference of industrialists and finance experts
discussing the country's bright new prospects.

More on the Princess Di story at http://www.drudgereport.com

How are you gold grumps doing? Hey - stock market going up in Sept. Dow will reach 8200 ( and 8300+ and 8400+ probable ) . October will be a down month ( potential start to real bear market ) . Gold and metals not doing squat until near the end of year. Just thought I'd let you know - being the nice guy that I am. Enjoy your labor ( or lack of ) day!

My crb model has now gone bullish long term as of last Friday. The short term model of the crb is still questionable. My gold model is still bullish short term. The long term model of the gold market remains bearish. My xau model is bullish short and long term. Although the stock market is extremely oversold, my model still views it as bearish. I expect interest rates to continue to rise long term.

Cherokee: Headphones tightly strapped on....and groovin...Where is that crusty old fart ( Earl ) tonight...Hopefully NOT back painting that damn house! but dreamin of AP....Cherokkee: At least yer woman's team won...

Thanks Donald. I'm just wondering what the potential for Tribal strife in the mines is if South Africa's delicate political condition unravels. Tribalism has been the weight around the rest of Africa's neck.

Cherokee: Good evenin' dude. Just lurking and absorbin'. ...... Mostly the latest from Oldman. Words of wisdom from one who lives what he knows, without being blinded by ego or vanity. Two devastating character flaws for a trader to have. .... Good stuff, as usual, from Oldman.

LurkingGbug: I'm not arguing "for" a crash, merely pointing out the fallacies in some of your weaker points. No one here,but Puetz, has really ever defined a crash in specific time/dow parameters. Are you really going to buy back in after a "correction"? One of the principle values of a philosophy or investment theory, is it's predictive value. At what point will you really buy back in? What conditions must be met?
Boomers can't carry the market by themselves, 401k money isn't enough to keep the market going up. Incomes and thus 401k contributions are increasing at a linear rate if at all, and the market through July had become hyperbolic. The math doesn't work. It has taken two generations of wealth, plus a great deal of leveraging, plus foreign inflows, plus near perfect economic conditions, plus a great deal of borrowing, plus the absence of war, famine or other exogenous events, to push the market this high. The market is very over-valued, sort of like a balloon being very over-inflated. Perhaps some skillful people can "engineer" a slow leak, which will lessen the risk of a bust. Time will tell.

Lurker:That article by Talbot which Ter gave sight for was good. Sight is http://www.erols.com.mdando. If you look at it these markets are really out of sink but the news keeps us thinking otherwise. Talbot seems to agree with George S. Cole the dean of Gold Bugs.

Ted: Crusty old ....???? Harrumph. Just showered and removed said crust. .... Yes, more painting. But all the big parts are done. .... Now its off to the guest cottages, the stable and summer kitchen. The gazebo and pavillion, I think I'll leave for the next guy. It's now time for grounds keeping. ...... Anyone have a sure fire, low effort, means of controlling moles???? Got a million or so of the damn things. They really raise hell with the wife's putting greens.

Sorry sight is http://www.erols.com/mdando for the insightful newsletter.

Mike my concerns are about prices predictions of $5000+ gold.
Perhaps a team of speculators might drive it there on the basis that nothing else has value.
The situation is now in the opposite direction for gold and over valuation in the stock market, so I find the above conceivable.
Something is driving this stock market, many blame it on the 401-k's and IRA's and various other reasons.
My opinion is that media reports have small investors thinking that they will make money, but the real money is going into the hands of others.
At $5000 gold the problem that I see is how can one buy value when he has nothing of value.
What would the miners do, sell their gold for real estate or non-related manufacturing? Can you imagine Homestake buying Rockefeller Center?
I would like a much higher price range; say $600 to $1200.

Speed ( 21:09 ) : Your second paragraph, says it all. Absolutely. Double digit stock market gains on the back of an economy growing in low single digits??? ........ LGB, commented on the present 'rosie scenario' without regard to the normal market discounting practice. That is, today's rosy economy was discounted by the market, long ago. Now the question is; what will the economy look like at this time next year? That's where the new highs will come from.

Earl: Ask RJ to send the KGB guys around to get rid of those moles. : ) Or you might have ole WSF send you a couple hundred thousand fire ants.

Bart: What happened? I can't retrieve any old postings.

Speed: Fire ants???? Jeeeez! That's just what I need. Swap one pest for another. At least the moles leave me alone, personally. .... But, fire ants down the mole hole does have an interesting ring to it. Eh?

I think I have unearthed some fire ants that I will ship to the highest bidder. I was out there in the back yard spading for the old midnight gardner and they came out like skeletons garding a buried treasure. Had to fight them off with a hoe--not a Cherokee type Texas ho but a gardning hoe. Seems we are being taken over by the six legged monsters. I must call my pest control son so that I can get to my treasure.

Earl ( 21:18 ) HI!....
does IT ever end fer christ sakes???....did my share of painting...and can see why alotta em are alcoholics...burp.....Re-Moles: Blow their #^%&^*$ heads off....CherOkee: ding ding....

Everyone will see..It will be like "The Boy who Cried Wolf" when I really get it right. I just wish I could make it up to the guys at Kitco.

Will all find their place in THE ANNUALS OF INFAMY. Or will they blame Japan; if she buys gold?

Hi!....fire ants....moles....we're bein invaded!....outbreak of seals here in good old cape breton today....FLUX....can't believe this....my ISP has operated for two hours without a shut-down....good job fella's...
....

Saturday, August 30, 1997

Hoover tried to smear Daley as 'pinko'

CHICAGO ( AP ) -- Even The Boss, Mayor Richard J. Daley, wasn't exempt from the FBI's suspicion of being a communist sympathizer, a tool of the mob or an accommodator to civil rights leaders.

The file notes an association between Daley and possible communist elements as an Illinois state senator. It cites an invitation Daley received to speak at an American Youth for Democracy gathering in January 1944 in Chicago. The invitation, which Daley declined, was issued at the
instigation of Robert Travis, referred to in the file as a "reported communist."

http://www.canoe.ca/News/aug30_hoover.html

Watch it buddy

Hi Ted!

I should worry, right! : ) : ) : )

Ted: NO! Seemingly, it doesn't end. Fortunately the servants have agreed to paint their own quarters. They're as interested, as everyone else, in productivity improvement. ..... Not to mention, it's a condition of employment. ..... :- ) ) )

ALL....Bought a nice coin collection today from a gen-Xer....His unsolicited comment on why he was selling part of his grandfather's estate "I can take this money and double it by the end of the year in the stock market"....

You should pal

OK, you have my attention, I am Worried ! Now, is that Right or is it the
other right ! I get confused, under pressure. : ( : (

September 8 issue Gary S. Becker, 1992 Nobel laureate writes this issue's Economic Viewpoint. The title is "Fragile Economies and Floating Currencies Don't Mix." This is an interesting read. His thesis is that "Developing nations with currencies tied to the dollar, mark or yen can't fuel inflation by printing money to fund their spending." "No country with full foreign-reserve backing for its money supply can have runaway inflation for the simple reason that power over the printing press is taken away from governments."
The obvious question is what happens if the reserve currency is being inflated? or... What is the reserve currency tied to? Not that I'd argue with a nobel laureate or anything.

Speed,

Ask that Nobel guy why Hong kong has inflation then.

Earl: like I always said.....thank god for servants!....somebody's gotta do the dirty work.....am goin ta start a major renovation of this place and called two places for estimates ( big$$$$ ) and neither place bothered returning a call....in FOUR days...and counting....life in atlantic canada....we're depressed....but we ain't gonna do a damn thing ta get out of our depression......we got so much business buddy ,we ain't even goin ta give ya an estimate......amend that atlantic canada comment to CAPE BRETON....better not judge what I don't KNOW....Neighbor eddie ( with a straight face ) said his philosopy on raisin a kid ( unfortunately he has a three year old son.....petey ,the little MONSTER ) ....is that he will NEVER say NO to petey....no matter what he SAYS....or DOES....Brilliant eddie...permissive bull-sh!T.....what this place needs is someone commin in here and kickin ass....am ramblin,but it's Saturday night of a three day weekend....WW: you'd love it here...a @&%$#* utopia.....god, I love all the alphabet soup letters committees....studies out the wazoo....studies of the study ...of the study...GO GOLD! ( had ta get that in ) ...eh...Bart

It's the OTHER right! Next thing you'll be dissin Old Joe Kennedy.

jfkdsa: The article states quite clearly: "Since 1983, the Hong Kong dollar has been tied to the American dollar at a rate of about seven to one- Hong Kong has foreign reserves of about $70 billion. Yet Hong Kong has prospered even when the American dollar has greatly appreciated in value."

Ted, I think I've have had all the pleasure I can take for one day. With all the vermin about of the two, four and six-legged ilk its time to turn in. I've got a Dean Koontz book I'm into tonight about seismic tremors in the arctic. That's yet another thing we can worry about and the flux goes on. I think I agree with you that the Bosnian deal is just a serious accident waiting to happen and there will be a lot of loss of American life when it does. Clinton has had it too easy on that move to date. I think that and the stock market are going to reach up and give him a gigantic political wedgie before we finally get rid of the guy.

Speed: By expanding our debt and money supply; do we not provide the developing economies with the wherewithal to inflate as well? They cover their paper with increasing quantities of our paper. No?

Ya missed a Scaterie Island trip last week with me and Sean Whelan ( the drunkin Irishman ) aboard our trusty ( ? ) kayaks....he almost drowned....still have to get a metal detector....didn't find any gold coins last "trip" but did find a inflated football....made in Thailand...

nite.....

Earl -- How is this for a 'mole' deal; For every mole that I whack ( kill ) you buy one share of my gold stocks. I kill a 100 of those pesky moles, you buy a hundred shares of my stocks ( I'll even throw woodchucks in for free! ) . At least this way we can save on the commissions and have a real trade take place, dead moles for gold stocks. :- ) ) Well, at least it's better than my brokers deal right now. :- ) )

On a sad note, the 'putty/call' cemetary is soon to receive another fresh shipment recently expired calls... I am happy to report that there are no puts are contained in the latest consignment.

On a happy note, after said consignment takes place, my current stock trading account will follow the calls and be resurrected in a more hospitable firm ( I hope! ) .

Earl: That's what I think, but we're up against a Nobel laureate. I think he's on the right track, he just doesn't think it all the way through to the end. His last paragraph sounds great:" By eliminating inflationary finance and creating a stable monetary environment, rigidly fixed exchange rates have immense advantages for the great many developing ( and other ) nations that can't trust their governments to act responsibly in fiscal and monetary matters."

I'd add, "fixed to gold", but then I'd be arguing with a nobel laureate, probably more than one. It's sickenly amusing that he thinks the dollar, yen and mark can be trusted because their governments act responsibly in fiscal and monetary matters.

Evening Panda....this "thing" in Bosnia could turn things around in a hurry....saber-rattling.....from a "paper tiger"....

nite all!

Now I've FINALLY read someone here with listening too! Anyone who wants to understand how money is REALLY made, go back and read Mr. Oldman's post. The man makes sense... SPEED, you're finally coming around too, you listed a lot of the same reasons I have why the markets come so far so fast and why I'm out of it waiting for a lil pull back ( And I do mean little ) . A crash will happen someday, I'd say beyond 2008 or so, and I'll be mostly OUT when it happens, having read the signs well in advance.

Hey Kitcoite's, since everyone hates the old LGB ( even though I love YOU all with the excpetion of Puetz ) , pull up a chair at the feet of Mr. Oldman, a pro actually making his living trading instead of writing nonsense, and get youselves an education!!

TED -- DON'T mess with the Serbs! Very bad people to get in to a fight with! I remember one story of an atrocity that took place two or three years back. It seems that one poor hapless soul ( ? ) was being tortured before being killed. After the evil deeds were done, he was bound and trussed. The final 'act' was to use an axe to split the pelvic bone. He was left to die in the street. For those of you with no imagination, do this; Bend over, grab your ankles, now imagine an axe, WHACK!

All these problesm in foreign markets and currency's will just drive investors in those countries deeper into the hands of the good old stable U.S. equity, bond, and T bill marketplace, this keeping our market high even as Asia, Latin America , etc. falters. On the other hand, this Lady Di story could be real trouble for the markets on Tuesday, right Sheller?

TED -- My folks are from Eastern Europe, they 'know' of the Serbs. Russians to. I have long felt that this was a powder keg that would blow up soon. I'm surprised that it has taken this long for anything to happen there. This will be a case of guerrilla warfare versus conventional forces in a mountainous region. I can't think of a worse scenario for the U.S. forces to face. Oh, I forgot the winters too.

Speed: Responsible government??? Sounds like a newly minted oxymoron.

Panda: I suspect that I would have as much trouble getting rid of your ( former ) 'cats and dogs', as I presently have ridding myself of the current pests. ... : ) : ) ....... BTW, just looking at the SP and Dow chart, after Oldman's comments, it looks like 750 and 6500 would change a lot of minds in the market. That would wipe all of 97 gains. August has pretty much taken care of July's gains. ..... I haven't a clue as to the outcome ( near term ) but it will be fun to watch.

Also, the XAU just don't look too healthy.

Good night all...

Panda, these Serbs that you mention, do you suppose they would be for
hire. I am worried about possible action aginst me by a Richard J. Daley
Jr. I could use a Serb, that could do that type of a WHACK.
I am worried eh! : ) : ) : )

Not a good move by USA!...Time for me ta get my "beauty sleep" ...nite Panda,Earl,6pak,Speed,LGB and all other lurkers....

Was your 23:30 really necessary? And they complain about my posts! Actually, if all the theorists out there want to worry about future foreign threats, you'd best think about the CIS, and barring that China, barring that Islamic fundamentalists ( who may be the biggest threat of all ) . Oh yes, as to Moles, I hear a good ATTACK CAT can usually take care of such problems.....

It'll take more than the Serbs to help you buddy! Fitzpatrick eh.

Nite Ted.: ) : ) : )

Goodnight all, I'm off to check the "Amateur Bikini Page" for important updates which could affect the markets then off for the evening...