LGB: If you intend to stay long the stock market through the end of the decade, you better have both a strong stomach and a strong wallet. We are very near the end time-wise, and closer in price than we are to last years lows, IMO. Not even Rubin, Greensapan, et.al., can keep this parabolic pig going indefinitely. They will do everything in their power to keep it going til '00, because that means Hillary runs, the Klintons stay at 1600 Pa. Ave., and Bobby Rubin continues to rule the world. They have MUCH to lose. It will end when something scares the heck out of the boomers and causes them to try to 'cash in their chips'. The door will not be big enough to accomodate the crowd, unfortunately.

July '96 and Apr '97 inoculated Joe public against the standard 10% correction. It'll take something bigger than that to spook him. When we have a deep correction of 12-15% or so, he'll get nervous. Then the inevitable 'relief rally' approaching or slight ly esceeding the old highs will pacify him. As the previous swing lows are approached on the real slide, he'll get nervous. When prices cascade through the old swing low, he'll get on the phone. Good luck to him then. I dont know when that will be, though I expect sooner rather than later, so I'll leave the "calling the top" to those smarter than I. I will ALWAYS be wrong at the top and at the bottom, because I am a slave to the trend. And, believe me, financially, the trend is a kind and gentle master. Those who have called the top repeatedly will be right when the turn comes, but if, as a trader, you have bought every dip, you'll be able to take your licks with a smile. Unlike traders, who will "get right" with the new trend very soon after it comes, the "buy and hold" investors will be devastated. FWIW, in the '73-'74 bear, though the Dow fell ONLY about 40%, the average stock lost fully 75% of its value. I dont know when the next one will come, but you can bet your sweet bippy that it'll be worse, because we've got so much further to fall.

I am the ultimate long term bear. I believe that, over the nekt decade or two, we will correct a large part of all the economic progress of Western Civilization. I believe this, because I believe that Western Civilization is now in terminal crisis. If Western man disappears, whither the civilization he has built? So, even though I am philosophically attuned to the doom-sayers, I cannot in good conscience tell someone to sell the market short, or buy puts---other than as portfolio insurance or a lottery ticket----this year. '98 should be different.

p.s. I LOVE gold. I love to look at it, feel it, fondle it and admire it. I own a LOT of it. I will never sell it. But I am short gold futures, because that's what my system calls for as of the end of August, 1997.

Princess Diana dead.

At 23:53 tonight Princess Diana was killed in an automobile accident in Paris...

LBG: I'm somewhat puzzled by your sudden infatuation with Oldman. Do you realize that the man relies heavily on TA and history? That his thoughts are always well considered and presented without a hint of bluster, pretension or bombast and without condescension. A gentleman, in every sense of the word. Precisely the things that you have foresworn. In short he is most everything you are not, by your own admission. How could that be?

Arghhhh....nite 6Pak! tis late here on the "East coast"....typed in easy ( Y bein next ta T ) instead of east,at first...freudian slip....perhaps...

http://www.abc.net.au/ra/newsrael/rael-31aug1997-22.htm

Earl: SPX 750 and Dow 6500 would be full blown bear markets in anyone's mind. Those numbers will come in due course. New highs first, though, IMO. Hey, it hurts me to say it, because the folks i detest most, the Klintonistas, stand to benefit so much for it. But the market is boss, and the market tells me this is a correction within a continuing bull market in stocks and a correction within a continuing bear market in gold.

Oldman: Superb comments this evening. ..... Yours. No argument on the trends. Neither gold/gold stocks look like they are in a change of trend. Yet. ...... The SP has an ugly engulphing bar for August but ... "one rose does not make a summer". In the meantime it will still be fun to stand on the sidelines and watch.

test

Earl: Some of the gold stocks, i/e., NEM, HM, give some real hope that the next slide in gold could be the last. It takes very little to turn some of the gold stocks into young bulls. BTW, GS COle is dead on about the fact that the stocks MUST lead. The disappearance of volume in some of the big golds in recent days is very bearish, though. These stocks MUST rally strongly on HUGE volume to call this turn. Make no mistake about it----and wishin wont make it so.

Oldman: I agree completely. Earlier, I was looking at those stocks specifically. HM, NEM, NGC etc. OBV has been strong for several months but is now tailing off. No surprise there. Also, as GSC has said several times, the SA stocks are also weak as well. In short, there is not much for a goldbug to hang his hat on. Yet.

Ah feel lak a song by dam

"Feesh gotta sweem
Bairds gotta fly
Ah gotta luv
zee gold teel ah die

canNOT help loveeng
zat gorzeous GOLD"

Bernatz: That was pretty good but you sing with a strong accent. How 'bout something from M. Chevalier. Perhaps: "Thank heaven for ( a ) little gold".?????? ....... BTW, isn't it about time to form up a work party to PM the company guillotine? Hasn't been used in awhile. Probably could use some lube and a whetstone touchup of the personal part.

SAD SAD SAD NEWS!

RE: DEATH OF PRINCESS DIANA
I am deeply shocked by her death. She is only a few years older than myself, & I remember her Wedding Day with fond memories. Absolutely devastating for the boys. I am a supporter of the CONSTITUTIONAL Monarchy that we are privileged to have in Australia. Keeps the pollies
on their toes. Also, you can't "elect" someone who is born into the job by God.

Unfortunately the conspiracy theorist in me is working over-time. She was becoming a big PR problem for Charles & the Palace, I think the last straw came when she started criticising the previous Conservative Govt under John Major for doing NOTHING about the land mines. The Defence outfits, & the MI6 may have been concerned. It is amazing how convenient a car crash is. A good way to shame the Papparazi who where following, cameras hot to trot. Very convenient now for Charles, who may get around to marrying Carmilla Parker-Bowles. Don't mess with the Establishment??
I wonder why she had a "massive heart attack?". Is that normal in car accidents? I am not a doctor, so do not know. If this accident could have been "planned", it certainly gets solves a few different problems. For Bible followers, it was interesting also that she visited a fortune teller recently, with the new boyfriend. Maybe someone up there thought her time was up.

THE NEWS:
Sunday August 31 12:27 AM EDT

Princess Diana Dies After Car Crash in Paris

PARIS ( Reuter ) - Britain's Princess Diana died Sunday from injuries suffered in a car crash in Paris, French and British officials said.

Diana's millionaire companion Dodi Al Fayed was also killed in the crash, which occurred shortly after midnight as the pair, accompanied by a bodyguard, were being driven along the Seine River after dinner at the Ritz Hotel in the French capital.

Reports said the car Diana, 36, was traveling in with her companion crashed while it was being pursued by photographers.

Buckingham Palace said Queen Elizabeth and Prince Charles were deeply shocked and distressed by the tragic news.

The statement, carried by Britain's Press Association news agency, said Diana's two sons, William and Harry, had been told of their mother's death.

"Our thoughts and our prayers are with her family and with her friends," British Ambassador Sir Michael Jay said.

"The Queen and the Prince of Wales and the prime minister ( Tony Blair ) have been informed of the death of the Princess of Wales," Jay told reporters gathered at the Salpetriere Hospital in eastern
Paris.

British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook Sunday talked of the "immense loss" caused by Diana's death.

When asked for his reaction to the reports of Diana's death, Cook said: "I am greatly shocked by this news. Our first thoughts must be with her children and her family at this time of immense loss to them."

"In the next few days, her family and the nation must have time to come to terms with this immense loss," he told reporters accompanying him on an Asian tour.

"In the longer term, serious questions will need to be asked if the aggressive intrusion into her privacy has contributed to this tragedy," an ashen-faced Cook said before he left Manila.

"In the name of the French government, I express my great sorrow and pain," French Interior Minister Jean-Pierre Chevenement said. "I offer the condolences of the French people to the Royal Family."

The princess died of heart failure and bleeding in the chest area, doctors said.

Mex: There was nothing admirable about the "Lady", or that I would like my daughters and granddaughters to emulate. Nevertheless I sympathize with her children, whose need for an intact family during their formative years never seemed to concern their mother. Great Britian's "Rutting Royals" are prime examples of the decline into terminal decadence of Western Civilization. Goodnite all.

After my trip down south in Western Australia, it was interesting to talk to the old timers ( in their 70's ) . They agreed with my charts showing how high things were. But they have been sucked in by the massive rise ( eg up to 70% returns on some stocks ) . They are so reticent to sell now. It's like their eyes have been glazed over, & they just can't do it. A bit like stunned mullets. "But we have to hold these stocks, because we need the dividends" they say. "We can't sell because of all the capital gains tax that we are going to pay". Not insignificant, but probably not much of a concern when those stocks keel over.
The other type of person is the investor who has bought & is still holding a heap of floats over the last year, that generally have all gone up. They keep saying, why don't I just keep holding? Anyhow, cash is so low, we need the dividends also. Well, they have been warned. Our firm is in the business of building & increasing portfolios, not holding stocks for stocks sake.

Maybe they wanted the boyfriend, & not Diana. Possibly a few of the establishment were a bit unhappy with the boyfriend's father?
See the last few paragraphs of this new release. Also, re: my conspiracy theory, I should have realised they would have had a driver. Probably fairly experienced, considering the importance of his passengers. I bet he was NOT under the influence. But was the CAR????

Sunday August 31 12:55 AM EDT
Princess Diana, Dodi, Die in Paris Car Crash
By Irwin Arieff

PARIS ( Reuter ) - Britain's Princess Diana and her millionaire companion Dodi Al Fayed were killed early Sunday when their car crashed while being chased through Paris by photographers on motorcycles.

Diana, the world's most photographed woman and divorced wife of the heir to the British throne, was rushed to the intensive care unit of the Salpetriere hospital in eastern Paris.

But five hours after the crash, French Interior Minister Jean-Pierre Chevenement told reporters at the hospital doctors had failed to save her life.

"In the name of the French government, I express my great sorrow and pain," he said. "I offer the condolences of the French people to the Royal Family."

The driver of the car was also killed. The fourth person in the car, one of the princess's bodyguards,was injured and freed from the crushed wreckage in a road tunnel under the posh Eighth District.

Diana died on the eve of a conference in Oslo at which about 100 countries will try to agree on a treaty to ban anti-personnel land mines -- her favorite cause, for which she traveled to war zone in Angola and Bosnia.

Several press photographers were taken into custody for questioning after the crash, police said. The British ambassador to France, Sir Michael Jay, told reporters: "The Queen and the Prince of Wales and the prime minister ( Tony Blair ) have been informed of the death of the Princess of Wales. Our thoughts and our prayers are with her family and with her friends."

Queen Elizabeth and Prince Charles are deeply shocked and distressed by the death of Princess Diana in a car crash, according to a statement from Buckingham Palace on Sunday.

The statement, carried by Britain's Press Association news agency, said Diana's two sons, William and Harry, had been told of their mother's death.

The Press Association said news of Diana's death was passed to the queen, Prince Charles and other members of the royal family at their Balmoral estate in Scotland, where they are spending their summer holidays.

Diana, 36, and Harrods heir Al Fayed, 41, had been the focus of frenzied media attention for the past month after photographs showed the pair embracing on a Mediterranean holiday.

Only last week, Diana lashed out at the press in an interview published in the French daily Le Monde.

"The press is ferocious," she was quoted as saying. "It pardons nothing. It only hunts for mistakes. Every motive is twisted, every gesture criticized.

"I think that in my place, any sane person would have left ( Britain ) long ago. But I cannot. I have my sons."

British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook, who is on an Asia tour, told reporters in Manila that "It will be doubly tragic if it does emerge that this accident was in part caused by the persistent hounding of the princess and her privacy by photographers."

The accident took place about 35 minutes past midnight while the Mercedes Benz carrying the princess was being pursued by press photographers on motorcycles.

The car was driving at the time through a tunnel at the Place de l'Alma, across the Seine River from the Eiffel Tower, police said.

The officials declined to give the names or identify the employers of the motorcyclists.

A badly damaged motorcycle was taken away from the accident site by police after the crash.

In London, Prime Minister Blair was woken and informed of the accident. While he waited for news of her condition a Downing Street spokesman told the Press Association: "He is shocked and saddened by what he sees as a devastating, appalling tragedy."

Diana was due back in Britain on Sunday after her latest holiday with Al Fayed in the Mediterranean and had been expected to see her two sons, William and Harry, at her London home at Kensington Palace.

After the breakdown of Diana's marriage to heir-to-the-throne Prince Charles, culminating in a divorce a year ago, she was careful to keep any men friends out of the public eye.

But she threw caution to the winds with Al Fayed. taking her sons on holiday in July on the yacht of Dodi's father, Mohammed Al Fayed, and hinted she would have a shock announcement within weeks.

Al Fayed was the heir to a business empire that included Harrods, London's "top people's" store.

***********
His Egyptian-born father is one of the most controversial men in British public life. He contributed to the election defeat of Britain's former Conservative government with his allegations that senior
politicians took money from him to ask questions in parliament.
***************
President Clinton said early Sunday that he and his wife Hillary were "profoundly saddened" by the death of Diana.

"Hillary and I knew Princess Diana and we were very fond of her. We are profoundly saddened by this tragic event. Our thoughts and prayers tonight are with her family, friends, and especially her children," Clinton said in a statement issued after Diana's death was reported.

Zizzpak: KGB du kleener job dan Zerb Vacker, vee train ofver hole vorld and vee cost kheep.

Any comments on Greenspan's speech as to what form his "...direct intervention in markets" will take?
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970830/business/stories/greenspan_1.html

Prospector @ 04:12
I think platinum is a far superior to gold for a buy and hold investment. This comes with the assumption that there will be no worldwide economic collapse. You will not be able to barter for bread with platinum. Those who believe they will be able to do so with gold will have little success dealing with those who have guns. If you would like to contact me by e-mail, maybe I can point you in the right direction. rjd@pacbell.net

Donald
@ "He offered a set of clubs and I accepted. Just like the Depression when you pay the doctor with a chicken."

Just how far can you hit that chicken with a 9 iron?


B.V.D. Guy
Showed her whose boss, Huh? See you tomorrow. Who else from this odd group will be attending the mini concert featuring the master of the strad ath the LA Museum of Art? Should we arrange to meet B4? Suggestions?? Wrecked the Armani shorts when I tried to press them, guess its bleached cutoffs and a tank top, do I have to wear shoes?

To all mah frens at Kitco
Ah canNOT help but noteece zat Monsiour WW ( Weenie
Wackair from Wondairland ) , he fail to spell zee name
of Bernatz CORRECTEMENT by GAR.
Zees ees getting serioux mah fren. You are startING
to remind me of zat loony tune Robespiere zat Ah had
so much trouble wiz a leetle while ago.
All zee workairs crapola zat you speek weel not
help you when zee REAL WORKERS come to zee vermont
reGION wiz zair FRENCH SWORDS and zee GUILLOTINE to
straighten out zee place and restore ordair.
In zee meanTIME, please attempt to spell zee name
of Bernatz properLY.

RJ -- Question: I've been wondering why the government would authorize the minting of a platinum coin if it is to be believed that demand has outstripped mine production and some of the current supplies are coming from stockpiles. What's your take on this?

Oldman: Your comments about Princess Diana were both heartless and sexist. Obviously, your life lacks a certain civility and sensitivity ....quite pathetic.

I can't get into Kitco to read the posts tonight. Therefore, I am "posting blind." STRAD--here is a site for classical music-- http://www.classicalinsites.com/ Off to track down a rumor I heard, that some U.S. mutual fund managers are in a panic over the S.E. Asian situation. Hopefully, this post will get to the FORUM!

Here is a scary story from Bloomberg about PANIC among U.S. mutual fund managers invested in the "Tigers". http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/fnd/fnd1_05.html

It's strange, that in a relatively short time; that is AFTER gold made the bigger part of its fall; the steep drop, that I attribute to the negative press and CB tithes-9%, that most Asian Currencies have taken major hits.
Was this earlier gold fall created -in view of the coming currency problems- to discourge the Asians from buying real money and buying US dollars instead?
Is it possible that the World Monetary honchos knew what was coming and prepared for it.
I assume that at the present, gold is much too expensive for these people and the unscathed few with real money will sell out and opt for US Investments instead.
This situation, could very well have been concocted by the robber baron elites and their lackies in high public office.

The Death of a Princess:Could this be the spark?
As unrelated as the death of the Princess of Wales may seem to world markets, consider the following:
1 ) World markets, particularly in Asia, are on tenterhooks.
2 ) Markets exist in the minds of men/women.
3 ) There will be an "enormous" outpouring of grief, worldwide, but particularly in Commonwealth countries, over this tragic event.
4 ) Princess Diana is a vast industry--printing, media,worthy causes etc.
5 ) The U.S. markets will be closed on Monday, while the rest of the world trades for two days.
6 ) How will ( 3 ) above impact on world markets? Not at all you say? I disagree. Emotions run markets. Read Auric's post of 04:31 about panic among fund managers. What does it take to help the snowball gather speed now that it has started rolling? Perhaps The Death of a Princess.

My apologies to all for discussing this tragic event in such terms. May the Princess of Wales, Mr. Al Fayed and their driver R.I.P.

JACK: You may be getting close to something. As reported, some of the CBs are into the derivitives area, particularly the U. S., so the House of Cards is getting even more shaky. The Asian markets will tell us more tomorrow.

SILVERBUM: "Could this be a spark" I just got on line a few minutes ago and found an e.mail from one of my sons about Diana. It is a CNN report that says the witnesses to the accident attacked the photographers in outrage. That type of spontaneous reaction on the part of witnesses may be a signal about the world mood in general. It is a reaction to public intrusion on private life. I think there is a message there for governments. Yes, it could be a spark.

Donald. People in the U.S. may not realise just how much this emotional turmoil could effect the markets. Brits will collectively be in a state of shock--as will ex-Commonwealth India etc. People I talked to in OZ today were on the verge of tears. Remember the Xmas trading in Dec. 1963?
Worst year for retailers in a long while. It will be interesting to see how this supposedly unrelated event will change moods etc. in U.K., Hong Kong etc. A little more weight on the house of cards?

OLDMAN: The stock market internals indeed are much too strong for a collapse to develop in the near future and a decent rally should develop shortly. I doubt the Dow Industrials will make new highs though. But small cap will soar.

Gold indeed getting ready for another move south, but new lows not likeley. When the turn finally comes the stocks will lead on HUGE volume as you suggest.

China cuts gold prices




Saturday August 30 10:57 PM EDT

China gold price cut may affect industry

BEIJING, Aug 31 ( Reuter ) - Two cuts this year in gold prices by the central bank, the People's Bank of China, have put
pressure on domestic producers although gold production has not fallen sharply, the China Daily Business Weekly said on
Sunday.

The central bank cut prices in January and in July by a total of 223 yuan ( $26.8 ) per tael ( 50 grammes ) to try to bring the
industry into line with international price levels, the newspaper quoted Ai Dacheng, deputy director of the Gold Bureau, as
saying.

Chinese banks now buy gold from mines and producers at 88 yuan per gramme, or about $330 per ounce.

If China reaches its target of producing 120 tonnes of gold a year, producers will lose 800 million yuan as a result of the price
cuts, Ai said.

This will put pressure on flagging domestic producers, many with thin margins and some running at a loss due to inefficient
management, he said.

In eastern Shandong province, China's biggest-producing region, output is expected to reach 1.1 million taels this year.
However, in northeastern Heilongjiang, some enterprises have closed, he said.

Slow development coupled with depletion of resources have affected the ability of producers to adapt to price changes, Ai said.

China cut the government purchase price for gold by 5-6 percent last year.

Production totalled 120.6 tonnes of gold last year, up nearly 12 percent compared with 1995.

GEORGE COLE: Yours at 6:47. As you said the other day, and I agreed, the market will do whatever it takes to fool the most people. Most are expecting a 10% pullback and a rally to a new high based upon the press and what I hear on Kitco. So that tells me it is the least likely option for the market. To fool the most people right now the market would need to grind down as it has been doing since the high. Another way for it to fool a lot of people would be to grind down 15-20%, rally up to LESS than a new high, and drop down from there.

My friend, the Dow/Gold Ratio, has not had a false reversal and is still looking "mostly spikey" which would imply a continued grinding down is in progress. However, we all know how quickly things can change.

Comments on proposals to change Indian gold regulations.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/27/z0009_87.html

40 cent increase in minimum wage tomorrow will not create inflation.
http://www.herald.com:80/business/docs/023669.htm

Argentina feels it will meet qualifications for IMF loan.
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/thisweek/eco1.htm

I do not think Old Man is unsensitive re: Diana's death. His is a realistic view. To put that in perspective look at the Kennedy's in our country--their perversions would match anything in hollywood; yet we overlook what they do because they are Kennedy's, have strong bold teeth, smile a lot and spend a lot of our money. Royalty in England is just like having a pet dog that eats more than the family budget and does litle productive other than dress up, go to public affairs and avoid or encourage scandel depending on the royalty.

Happy birthday Ted. Get out of the bed and get older gracefully.

"The problem with the 'New Paradigm' theory it that it has no supporting evidence" and "Alan Greenspan should quickly remove the punchbowl"
http://www.smh.com.au:80/daily/content/970828/business/business11.html

JACK: I speculated yesterday that the Asian devaluations benefit the US in 2 ways - 1 - end-of-cycle price rises are abated by the lower cost of foreign manufactures for the US. 2- Asian Currency hoards have few places to go other than US paper markets. Regarding high gold prices bringing a crisis to miners, a gold price of, say, $5,000 may be a spike, but it would obviously be a temporary spike at a whole new AVERAGE price level. The readjusted price range surrounding a gold price in the thousands of dollars would represent a higher level of value for gold miners' product. And a new "golden age" for the gold mining industry, as in '72-'80. More gold mining companies came into existence with the later money flowing into mining AFTER the 1980 peak. Even as share prices corrected heavily into 1982, mining money abounded, and there was a large increase in gold venture incorporations throughout the 1980's. I am one of those who believe that gold will be in the thousands of dollars in the early years of the new century. But it will not be something that one wakes up to one morning. A readjustment relative to money supply dynamics will take place after the mania for, and confidence in, paper instruments runs its course. There will be a natural, and normal , asset inversion as there is in every secular cycle of this nature. Not tommorrow, but over the next few years. Mining companies would be wise to seek investors now for reserve expansion. Probably the best long-term business investment in any industry right now is the "apparent" worst. Gold mining. Unfortunately, it is at opportune moments like this that money will not flow to the level of MOST value, but to the level of LEAST. It cannot remain long at the inflated levels of the popular market segments. But it can afford to wait patiently, and accumulate, at the distressed levels of the gold mining industry. Get Real, Get Gold is the message that miners will have to be more evangelical, and educational about. The challenge for mining operations is to attract fresh capital NOW with an educational and inspirational vision of clarity.

Delightful duet last night gentlemen.

TED: Happy Birthday big guy!

Alan Greenspan comments on the culture of Russia and the old Soviet Union and his insights on why Russia is having a problem developing a free market economy. ( This seems like the 'old' Alan Greenspan )
http://washingtonpost.com:80/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-08/28/058l-082897-idx.html

Happy Birthday Ted! You are one of the good guys here. Enjoy the day. ( I hope your stocks go up, and all the OTHER ones crash )

Puetz, I hope you don't mind but since you are having trouble accessing that post I will post it for Robert. Since it was addressed to me and of interest I saved it.
Date: Sat Aug 23 1997 15:29
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com ) :
Roebear: You are correct in preparing for deflation. Regarding your reference to re-gazing at
the stars to predict what will happen in the next in the markets: I have done so. Here is what I
see...... I see a Total Lunar Eclipse on September 16, 1997. A lunar eclipse that occurs 6
weeks after an over-valued market has topped, has coincided with the start of the
panic-phase of the Panic of 1857, the collapse of the Tulip-mania in 1637, the gold-and-silver
crash of 1980, the stock market crash in 1987, and the Tokyo crash on 1990.

When a lunar eclipse does not mark the start of a crash, a full-moon within 6 weeks of a solar
eclipse has: Examples are: the gold-and-silver crash of 1920, the Panic of 1873, the collapse
of the Mississippi Bubble in 1720, the crash of 1929, the Panic of 1869, the soybean crash of
1977 ( Bunker Hunt's speculation before silver ) , and the South Sea Bubble of 1720.

Before you laugh too hard, I estimated the chances of the relationship between full-moons and
crashes being random events. The calculation came out somthing like 1 in a million that they
are random.

Beware of the full-moon on September 16th. It's a special type of full-moon -- a total lunar
eclipse. That's when the panic-phase of the crash should start. This ought to get everyone at
Kitco a howlin'!

Return to Kitco Homepage

DONALD: There's a great line in Dracula when Dr. Van Helsing opens a music box with a mirror in front of Dracula's face and the sanguine Count smashes it to the floor. "For a man who has lived but one life, you know too much, Van Helsing."

Alan Greenspan has now lived two lives. I am very familiar with his early ideological purity. And on the other hand I have lived long enough to understand that cooperation with and in an establishment is probably the best way to effect change or prevent a worsening social prognosis. Nevertheless, it would indeed be inspiring for free market thinkers, and educationally salutary for the public at large, if the man were a little more clear and forthright about what he believes. His obscure language at this juncture of his life, and the nation's history, only gives comfort to the enemies of human freedom. If one of the best theoreticians of free market economy can only be understood by students and fans of Ayn Rand , Ludwig Von Mises, and Murray Rothbard, then he is preaching to the converted, and the rest of us will surely die in our sins.

MIKE SHELLER: On the future price of gold. A little bit of history may help to sort it out. After the 1933 change from $20.67 to $35 many people thought gold had been priced too high. The US had agreed to buy all gold at the $35 price and the stuff started comming out of European mattresses . By 1936 the US has $3 billion excess gold, more than the paper in circulation. The paper was worth more than the gold. There was a mining frenzy, gold stocks soared for that reason. There was a fear that the $35 price was too high and would be readjusted lower. Everyone who had gold was trying to sell before that happened. It all ended in 1937 when the stock market tanked again and the Depression continued.

MIKE SHELLER: After my last post I pulled out the bb fisher Dow/Gold Ratio chart. The whole 1933-1937 episode shows beautifully. Love that chart.

Timely ... and 'comforting' ...should do wonders for 'investors psychology' for next day trades...the trend has changed!
Public Television's Nightly Business Report Labor Day special ( airdate: Monday, Sept. 1st ) , ``Crash of '87: Ten Years Later,''
hosted by anchor Paul Kangas from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, takes a look back at the events leading up to
the market's disastrous plunge on Monday, October 19, 1987 and asks the experts -- could it happen again?
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/97/08/30/dec_y0004_1.html

( Letter to the Editor of Business Week )
DON'T REWARD COMPANIES
FOR SHORTSIGHTED
DOWNSIZING

Contrary to Mike McNamee's commentary ( ''The productivity boom is still a
mystery,'' News: Analysis & Commentary, Aug. 18-25 ) , there isn't any mystery
about the ''productivity boom''--there isn't one. Just because Alan Greenspan and
Wall Street don't like what the productivity statistics are showing doesn't mean
they're wrong. What they show is a decline in productivity growth despite the
corporate downsizing and restructuring. Annual productivity growth in the
nonfarm business sector only averaged 0.4% between 1992 and 1996. That's
less than half of the 1.1% average annual growth between 1973 and 1992. And
it's less than a fourth of the 2.8% average annual growth between 1947 and
1973.

What's clear is that all of the corporate downsizing and restructuring has merely
been a shortsighted response by the management of America's companies to the
long-term problem of global competition. Rewarding these companies with higher
stock prices for layoffs that haven't always improved even short-term profitability
is just as shortsighted.

Donald R. Finch
Littleton, Colo.

This site is posting excellent coverage of the Asian markets.
http://www.djtelerate.com.hk/cgi-bin/access.pl?news
You have to register but its free.

Also Asian index charts at
http://www.djtelerate.com.hk/htmls/fixed/charts/IDChart_reg.html

"Tax dollars are flowing into the Treasury so fast that Washington can barely spend them all"
http://www.usnews.com:80/usnews/issue/970908/8glas.htm

Oldman -- Regarding your posts last night, as usual, prescient and to the point!

Korean Bailout. "like putting someone who's brain-dead on a life support system"
http://www.abcnews.com:80/sections/business/southkorea828/index.html

DONALD: The revaluation of $vsgold by Roosevelt had its own dynamics. It was the traditional dynamic of "official" government pronouncement against reality. Reality always had a way of winning when it came to things like that. Now the game is played with no "official" pegging of currencies to anything. Not even other currencies ( which could at least be politically manipulated somewhat ) .
In 1980, the market was saying that the dollar, not gold, was over priced. One day it will be saying the same thing again.

oldman, I want to thank you for taking the time to post. Your comments here are very helpful to those of us who lack your experience.
I would be interested in your opinion of the cause and effect of the drop in the PPI over the last seven months, about -3.8% annual. Do you have any opinions on future inflation/deflation?

Mornin folks...and thankx for the HB's....Will Asian crash continue tonight???

The IMF is looking for a better way to spot a currency crisis before it happens. The old rules don't seem to work any more.
http://www.webpage.com:80/hindu/daily/970826/02/0226000f.htm

If I synthesize what I read in Kitco comments,the scenario for markets seems be as following : a DJIA rebound from a next Tuesday or Wednesday low for a 8-12 % rally topping around September 16-22.Then another falling to new lows or maybe a THE crash,this time.XAU testing old lows around September 15-20 following by a strong rally or maybe THE bull for gold?Any comments?

What does the word "Plumb" mean when it refers to 14K plumb gold.

Roebear: If AG is right and CPI is over stated by about 1.5%, retail inflation is now near ZERO. The PPI is down for the entire year, so wholesale inflation is negative ( deflation ) . Now, if a quarter or more of the wealth of the country were to disappear in a few weeks or months in a stock market debacle, what do you have? Do the math.

STEVE: That the gold is pure to 3 decimal points.

Interesting Reuters post, after watching hours of Media Spin on Diana.
I was intrigued how prepared the press was with stories & vision within hours of the event. Apparently the Chief of Police in Paris was on the scene "almost immediately". ( from a TV interview )
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970831/news/stories/dianacrash_7.html
After viewing the car wreckage, I am not surprised about Diana's heart attack. There were four in the car, the Driver, the Bodyguard, Dodi & Diana. It still seems strange for the car to just crash like that. What caused the driver to veer off course?? They didn't hit anyone else, & it was a one way freeway. A bad PR day for Mercedes salespeople.

The currency and stock market crisis is being watched anxiously in Beijing.
http://www.irish-times.com:80/irish-times/paper/1997/0830/fin2.html

A series of articles about Diana - Death of a Princess. From Sydney Morning Herald. Special Sunday edition. http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970901/index.html

Asia problems may impact the U.S.
http://www.ohio.com:80/bj/business/docs/028374.htm

I remember the day in 1972 when I lectured on the Trilateral Commission, the Rockefeller Core, and all their support structures and member companys. Twenty-five years later I wonder if any of those shining faces
ever grasped the concept? What do you think Allen?

Sorry for the misspell Alan.

From the Melbourne Age: Obviously Garry hasn't heard about 16th Sept!!
PERSONAL INVESTMENT
By Garry Jones of the Sunday Age ( chartist )
THE next selling wave should hit the stockmarket this week.
Tomorrow the Ords should drop another 30 points. Expect the
Aust. All Ords to move down towards 2555, and BHP to slip to $16.50
or even below $16.25. The bull run is over and traders should be back in cash ready for the next run. Last week I said that the market should make a cyclical turnaround on the Monday - as forecast some weeks before - with perhaps Tuesday being the over-run day. As it turned out, the Ords peaked at 2638 at 2.45pm on Monday, then slipped back to 2634, only to peak again at 2642 on 10.21am on Tuesday. Then, as I forecast, the rot set in and the Ords slid away, culminating in Friday's rout down to 2570 - a 52-point fall since I called the top. Next possible market turning dates are 30 September and 23 November. The September date is just in time for the usual October stockmarket running of the bulls. These possible turning points will either be up or down, depending on which direction the market runs up to them.

Woodside is one major stock holding out. Since running up to
$11.50 in May, WPL has run sideways just above $11, except
for one intra-day low at $10.50. Sideways runs such as this can break either upwards or downwards, so a move towards $11.75 would bring in more
buying and a drop below $10.50 would bring in the sellers. Lend Lease is also holding out. If $29 holds, perhaps $31 could be the next upward break. NewsCorp has bounced off $5.75, but needs to break the July
high of $6.50 to call in new buying. Fairfax's run from $2.95 towards the $3.35 area suggests new buying. The June intra-day peak of $3.40 should be the next barrier. Watch FXJ closely if this breaks.

Brambles is also holding up well. Its upward momentum is
slowing, but its 34-day moving average is still moving upwards -
unlike most other heavies that have their moving averages in
definite down trends.

Commonwealth Bank, Coles Myer and CSR are all heading into
cheaper territory. CBA will probably pull up at $14, the
May-June congestion area, but this is a long way down from the
$17 July peak.

For a free set of charts covering stocks in danger, send a large,
self-addressed 75-cent stamped envelope to Garry Jones,
`Sunday Age', 250 Spencer Street, Melbourne 3000.

Troubles in Asian markets may force many to reallocate their portfolios to cover positions.
http://www.msnbc.com:80/news/106507.asp#BODY

Here's a post I put on another chat:When the mother of two small boys leaves them to go chase around Europe with an Egyptian playboy
Her morals are questionable. When someone who is given great status by her country, brings disrespect to her
high office for selfish, hedonistic reasons, her patriotism is in doubt. She was a selfish lowlife, like most of Great
Britian's "Rutting Royalty". Like the old joke about the busload of lawyers going over the cliff with an empty seat,
its too bad most of her in laws werent with her. Parliament should banish the Lot. They are an absolute disgrace
to a once-proud nation. I dont agree with the "beauty" thing, either. She was a skinny broad with a big nose.

..The US , and other overvalued markets have not 'priced in' the Asian debacle...and the corresponding collateral effect...stay tuned...
August 31 1997

The tiger stock markets of southeast Asia are in turmoil after
suffering huge slumps. Is this the end of the region's growth
miracle? Report by Garth Alexander

Last month, when Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysia's prime
minister, accused George Soros, the international financier, of
being a "moron" and trying to force a devaluation by
speculating against the Malaysian ringgit, nobody paid much
attention.

Currency speculators finally forced him off his high horse and
let the overvalued currency depreciate by more than 10%.

But on Thursday, when he accused Soros and other
speculators of trying to undermine the Kuala Lumpur stock
market and announced that short selling of stocks was "akin
to insider trading", the world took notice. As the Kuala
Lumpur stock exchange dutifully announced a ban on short
selling, the Malaysian market went into a tailspin, falling 8% at
one point and closing at 4% down.

Southeast Asia's other markets, all weakened in recent
weeks by heavy speculation against their currencies and by
sharp currency depreciations, followed in Kuala Lumpur's
wake. Manila, the worst performer, was down 9.3%. The
rout sent ripples around the world, helping drive European
and American markets lower.

On Friday Asia took another tumble, with Jakarta dropping
6.8% and Hong Kong falling nearly 5%. Europe and America
again followed the downward trend, awakening fears that a
sharp global correction could be under way.

The Sultan of Brunei, the world's richest man, waded into
stock markets in Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the
Philippines, buying hundreds of millions of pounds of shares in
an effort to stop the regional collapse. Dealers said he bought
more than 185m of Singapore dollars to try to protect that
currency. Several Asian governments were also heavy buyers
of their currencies and equities.

Only the long Labor Day weekend holiday in America, and
the fact that most big US institutional investors were on
vacation, may have prevented greater panic. Although the
Dow Jones industrial average closed down 72 points at
7,622.42, after falling 93 points on Thursday, most Wall
Street analysts see little reason to panic and believe it is part
of an on-going readjustment that has seen the Dow fall nearly
10% in the past three weeks.

But what does worry some analysts is that Asian investors
may begin pulling their money out of US treasury bonds and
repatriating funds to prop up their own wobbly finances. If
that happens on a large scale it could be catastrophic for
America, which has a low 4.4% savings rate and would have
to jack up interest rates to attract new buyers into
government bonds. That, in turn, could be a signal for a much
bigger sell-off in world share markets.

British and American investors who have poured money into
Asia's stock markets have seen much of their capital
evaporate in the past year as it has become increasingly
apparent that the region is living beyond its means. Bangkok,
Kuala Lumpur and Manila are down nearly 40%. Singapore
and Jakarta are off nearly 20%. To make matters worse ( for
foreign investors ) all their currencies have tumbled, too.

American investors withdrew a net $480m from Asian funds
last month, according to Michael Lipper, who tracks
American fund flows. But Fidelity, America's top fund
manager, said late on Friday there had been no heavy trading
out of its Asian or emerging-market funds.

ASIA's problems first blew up on July 2 when the Thai baht
succumbed to an attack by speculators and was uncoupled
from the US dollar. It has plunged 25% since then.

The Thai government compounded its problems by launching
an enormously expensive effort to defend the baht, wasting
more than 12 billion in the process. The International
Monetary Fund and other countries have come to the rescue
with a 10 billion emergency loan. But a World Bank
representative said, unofficially, he doubted the credit line
was big enough to solve Thailand's gigantic bank-debt crisis;
in the two years to 1996 foreign borrowing by Thai financial
institutions nearly doubled to 46 billion, and much of that
debt is now considered uncollectable. Earlier this month
Bangkok announced it was closing down half the country's
finance companies after spending 10 billion trying to prop
them up.

Robert McKee, chief economist at Independent Strategy in
London, blames the Asian countries for their problems. He
says linking their currencies to the US dollar was a fatal
mistake because it gave them the illusion of success as the
dollar declined in value and their exports boomed. In fact
their current accounts widened as money poured in from
abroad and was frittered away on prestige projects instead of
being put to productive use and adding value to exports.

"They continued putting money into property and golf courses
and useless things like that," he says. When the dollar began
to appreciate Asian exports began to dry up, and there was a
shortage of foreign currency. But Asia's leaders continued
with their grandiose projects. Thailand, for instance, has just
taken delivery of the region's first aircraft carrier.

Malaysia, led by the combative Mahathir, has been one of the
worst offenders in this respect. It has ploughed ahead with a
series of mega-projects, despite the warnings of economists.
It has just built the world's tallest building and is now
constructing the world's longest building. It is also building the
world's biggest dam.

Despite a tiny domestic market, Mahathir decided a few
years ago he had to have a national car, and launched the
Proton. Now he is building a Multimedia Super Corridor,
which is supposed to be an Asian Silicon Valley just outside
Kuala Lumpur. These projects have cost Malaysia billions of
pounds and brought it few benefits so far.

While some economists, such as Paul Krugman at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, have warned that the
"Asian Miracle" is largely a chimera, founded "more on
perspiration than inspiration", and that Asia's cheap labour
supply will eventually run out and it will become
uncompetitive with the rest of the world, Mahathir has beaten
the nationalist drum and accused those who doubt the
region's strength of being "rogue speculators".

When the ringgit came under attack last month he refused to
admit it was overvalued and told the press: "What annoyed
me is this kind of activities is actually being supported by very
rich countries, and these countries don't even help poor
countries."

On Thursday he said Malaysia's crisis justified "changing the
rules of the game"  which he said the London Stock
Exchange did in the early 1980s when the Malaysian
government bought Guthrie, a British plantation owner.

Peter Churchouse, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist in
Hong Kong, says: "There are enough problems in these
markets without the authorities changing the rules of the
game. There are lots of other equity markets around the
world to invest in. You don't need to be involved in strong
against the weak."

Though most Asian countries are still fundamentally strong
and, after the latest currency depreciations, their exports
should be more competitive, they face competition from
China, which has proved it can duplicate just about all of
southeast Asia's achievements at a fraction of the cost, and
has huge surplus manufacturing capacity.

DAVID SHAIRP, economist at Christopher Heath's Caspian
Securities in London, believes most of the world's emerging
markets are now vulnerable to mutual fund redemptions,
particularly markets in Latin America which are up by as
much as 50% this year. He believes the Hong Kong dollar,
firmly pegged to the US dollar and backed by US$85 billion
of reserves, is 12% overvalued and could come under
renewed attack, as could Hong Kong shares, which fell 9%
on Thursday and Friday.

"In the next week, markets are probably due for a bounce as
indexes are oversold," he says. "Yet any bounce could well
prove to be a false dawn, until there is tangible evidence of
policy adjustment. Better times will follow but there will be
further pain first."

Morgan Stanley's Barton Biggs predicted a week ago: "I
expect there to be some heavy carnage in some of the
emerging markets such as Russia, Hong Kong and Mexico
that are still up on stilts."

Other analysts are more sanguine. Peter Warwick of Fleming
Investment Management, one of the top foreign investors in
Asia, says: "The time to buy is when there's blood on the
streets and total panic."

British private investors have several billion pounds invested
in Asian markets, says the Association of Unit Trusts and
Investment Funds. Most of it is held in unit and investment
trusts, which last week tumbled in value: the discounts to net
asset value in Asian investment trusts widened to 18%-19%,
from 12% a couple of weeks ago.

Warwick cautions: "We're in a completely new world at the
moment. Many Asian analysts are inexperienced and it took
them totally by surprise."

Only Taiwan, China and Australia held up in comparative
terms. Korea had its own economic collapse last year, and
Japan's fragile recovery has been nipped in the bud by fiscal
tightening and a new consumption tax.

Independent Strategy's McKee says: "Thailand is going to set
the tone for the region. If the market crashes it will set off a
chain reaction throughout the region. There are now doubts
about global interest rates remaining benign, and this is
worrying because stock markets are overvalued everywhere.
If the Bundesbank raises rates in the autumn or the Japanese
retrench and bring their money home that will lead to a
significant correction."

Here is a nice site. Prices per ounce around the world and prices of gold and silver coins.
http://www.msnbc.com/modules/commerce/gold2.asp

The Cycle

1. Currency devaluation = flight to nearerst 'shelter' = US $
2. Sell overvalued stocks = flight to nearest 'shelter' = US $ bonds
3. Collateral effect ( Japan, Hong Kong, ) inflation fears in Germany & UK sell US $
4. US markets correct significantly as bond yields move upward, due to 'inability' of US & Germany to apply 'needed' interest rates hike due to accelarating economy
5. Flight to 'better shelter' = as US $ declines = gold, the ultimate play
Will it happen?

"THE COMING COMPETING CURRENCY DEVALUATIONS" - Dines reviews the spate of currency devaluations in Far-East. He aptly exposes Central Bank folly of increasing rates to defend their currency:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines830.html

Nomercy ( The Cycle ) : REF: Your 5. Flight to 'better shelter' = as US $ declines = gold, the ultimate play - Will it happen?

Gold has worked down from Alexanders time... When something holds good for two thousand years, I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory.

Oldman: Amazing how the majority of the English folks seem saddened by the death of the woman you so easily speak badly of. When BART gets the squelch button you will be the first on my list.

A thought provoking article in yesterdays Globe+mail....how much will the asian CRISIS affect North American+world equity markets...This is a mouthful and see if I can concentrate long enuf to type this out...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/docs/news/19970830/ROBColumn/RCORC.html

Alain: You've got it right sir! Next 2 weeks stocks up and gold stocks down. Then big reversal. But I don't think big cap averages will make new highs on this move. Only the most agile traders should attempt to play the rally; risks are very high despite strong internals.

Donald: Market could fool a lot of people by rallying, but not to new highs, and then plunging like a stone when most are confident new records are just around the corner.

Where? The Chinese folk were saddened by the death of Mao, as were the Russian people at he death of Stalin, The Iranian people at the death of Khomeini. That was emotion. It did not mean that thinking people had to feel constrained to express admiration for them.

In its present state of decadence, the English "folk" has precisely the kind of monarchy it deserves.

PS: It is more fitting to engage than to "squelch".

One of the few true generalizations about human behavior: For individuals, IQ is inversely related to level of emotion.

oldman, Thanks, one more shovelful for the fires and then I believe its time to go up on deck for a smoke, check out a nice lifeboat. All those women and children will need a good hand at the oar, nst ce pas?

Understanding economic reality, these are 52 Economic Truths as recorded by Merrill Jenkins, Monetary Realist. When Jenkins is referring to money, he is referring to our "modern money unit" ( book entry ) .

1. Retaining the God given right to distribute one's own wealth is the only guarantee of freedom from tyranny.
2. Money accepted as a medium of exchange subjects people and their government to the influence of its creator.
3. Money is -- credit - imaginary demand - inflation - seigniorage
4. More cannot be returned to an only source, than is taken from it.
5. A contract cannot protect anyone who lacks the wealth with which to force its fulfillment.
6. Supply and demand are wealth and can not be imbalanced.
7. During an inflationary effect "prices" and employment rise together.
8. During a deflationary effect 'prices' and employment fall together.
9. Whatever, during any exchange, is accepted as a medium of exchange, in lieu of wealth, is imaginary demand ( money, credit, inflation ) .
10. Wealth is material - money is psychological
11. Money can be created or destroyed in the human mind.
12. Inflation cannot be controlled.
13. Money created in the human mind, has to be accepted by all others to function, once money is generally accepted all people will create it in volume to satisfy their desires, and control is impossible.
14. Money accepted in exchange for wealth is subconscious fraud.
15. Rent is material - interest is psychological
16. Rent is a wealth charge for the use of borrowed wealth.
17. Interest payment would require that more be returned to an only source than was obtained from it.
18. Interest is money charge for the use of borrowed money.
19. Wherever money is accepted as a medium of exchange wealth and freedom are forfeited.
20. Money is accepted in exchange for wealth only until the psychological nature of money is exposed, or until wealth expropriation consumes most of production and the public begins to starve.
21. Where freedom reigns, those who do not produce food directly, have to produce wealth or perform service to exchange for it.
22. Wealth exchanges freely on historic worth, money exchanges due to legal tender laws and the public's ignorance of its true nature.
23. Money is a force of evil.
24. Attempts to control and circumvent free market natural laws, causes hidden free market transactions.
25. Wealth is supply or demand by use or viewpoint.
26. As the exchanges of money ( imaginary demand ) for wealth increase, the parity of money falls.
27. Inflation is possible without the inflationary effect only at the expense of the standard of living, until wealth expropriation consumes most of production and the public begins to starve.
28. Inflation held as savings does not cause the inflationary effect.
29. Inflation feeds on itself and accumulated at an ever increasing rate.
30. Money may exchange for wealth but it can never be wealth.
31. All money is imaginary and its volume can not be measured.
32. Wealth only as a media makes inflation impossible.
33. Inflation ends with deflation.
34. Money is valueless unless accepted in exchange for something.
35. Wealth has worth is use, consumption, or as media - money depends on imagination and is usable only as a medium of exchange.
36. Deflation can be honorable only by redemption
37. The deflationary effect is possible without a deflationary exchange of tokens.
38. Money has to have parity to have exchange value.
39. Wage and price controls obscure the inflationary effect but cannot control inflation.
40. Parities are determined by exchanges developed by competitive bidding with respect to return on labor, variations in time, location and circumstance.
41. Exchanges determine parities.
42. Wealth supports independence - money enslaves.
43. Government regulations of the use of capital inhibit free enterprise and cause economic decline.
44. Conspiracy to expropriate wealth with money assures the eventual destruction of the conspiracy.
45. The main economic function of money is the expropriation of wealth.
46. Unless wealth exchanges for wealth directly credit extension or wealth expropriation is the result.
47. Take away all that a man produces and he stops working.
48. Supply can never exceed demand because a quantity cannot exceed itself.
49. A fractional reserve monetary system embezzles production within its sphere of influence.
50. Controlled prices oppose competitive parities.
51. No one can discover and disclose a truth based on a false premise.
52. Money expropriates wealth.

To read essays and additional links go to Money&Fiat Web Page at http://members.aol.com/FTUN/index.html ENJOY!

John Disney: Comments?

















IF MANDELA'S COALITION
CRUMBLES, SOUTH AFRICA COULD
FOLLOW

After reveling in the euphoria of Nelson Mandela's metamorphosis from political prisoner to President,
South Africa's ruling African National Congress is in a shambles. Political gridlock now risks dashing
the earlier high hopes of an equitable and prosperous post-apartheid society.

Problem No.1 for Mandela is that the crucial alliance between the ANC, the South African Communist
Party, and the Congress of South African Trade Unions ( COSATU ) is at the breaking point. Inside the
ANC, there is rift between socialist-style stalwarts and pro-market converts. An ANC Congress in
December--due to confirm Thabo Mbeki as Mandela's successor--may determine whether the alliance
can survive. ''If the glue doesn't hold, there's every possibility that we will end up with a hung
Parliament,'' warns Tony Twine, director of Johannesburg's Econometrix economic consultancy.

Since coming to power in 1994, Mandela's government has used its overwhelming 62% parliamentary
majority to cozy up to business. But his policies haven't been bold enough to really get the economy
moving. Foreign investment is slow to come, growth is lackluster at about 2%, and unemployment is
stuck at 40%. Meanwhile, crime, corruption, and labor unrest are growing, and the ANC's leftist allies
are seething. Popular support for the ANC has dwindled by 10 points, to 53%, since 1994, according
to a recent poll. Meantime, Mandela is focusing more on his place in history, by trying to broker peace
in Sudan and Zaire, and on pushing Cape Town's candidacy for the 2004 Summer Olympics, while
avoiding thorny domestic issues.

Part of the problem is the lack of a strong parliamentary opposition. Former President F.W. de Klerk
resigned on Aug. 26 as leader of the right-wing National Party, while Chief Mangosuthu Buthulezi's
Inkatha Freedom Party emerged weakened from provincial elections last year. So, with no other outlet,
protest has moved to the streets.

COSATU, with nearly 2 million members, is pouring oil on the flames. It threatens to stage paralyzing
strikes unless the government meets its demands, including a 40-hour workweek phased in over five
years. COSATU already shut down many industries with mid-August regional strikes to protest
legislation that would cut workweeks to 45 hours immediately from up to 60 hours now.

The core conflict is over government economic strategy. Labor leaders wanted to emphasize subsidized
job programs. But the government has followed the advice of business--that only growth will create
more jobs.

PROTEST-HAPPY? Now, labor militancy is widespread. Recently, occupational groups from teachers
to textile workers have struck, as have workers at companies such as Nissan Africa Ltd. Worried about
the impact on foreign investors, Adrian du Plessis, negotiator for the Business South Africa employers'
federation, warns: ''The perception is that South Africa is strike-prone and protest-happy.''

The government has other worries. In July, five ANC members were shot and killed in an apparent
resurgence of political violence in KwaZulu-Natal province. Mobs protesting utility shutoffs for
nonpayment of bills torched vehicles in clashes with police in Johannesburg in August.

Meanwhile, many of Mandela's campaign pledges are falling by the wayside. Decent housing has failed
to materialize for most. Land reforms, to return land expropriated by whites under the apartheid regime,
have stalled.

Mandela and Mbeki will not be able to deal with them, or much else either, unless they can reassemble a
focused alliance. If they fail, South Africa may be unable to escape more chaos.

By Kathy Chenault in Johannesburg

One thing that is part of the con game is to make people believe the US economy is strong. This is false as all strength is debt generated. Plus if we calculated the unemploymment rate as in Germany our unemployment rate would be over 12%. The under employment rate would be higher.
Corporate earnings growth is part based on downsizing outright lying. Coke was counting the sale of a business as operating revenue. Well I guess if I was the Big Six partner on the job I wouldnt want to lose the account either. Productivty is languishing and real income adjusted for inflation is also languishing ( reason most Amaricans now sympathize with Trade Unionism as opposed to greedy, dishonest and self serving management. Go Unions!!

God Bless Princess Di, she was a great progressive among the royals who demonstrated compassion for the less fortunate. I am sure she is reaping her reward in Heaven.

Gold silver ready to go next week

nomercy ( Hong Kong $ 10-12% overvalued? ) : Excellent informative post. One of the most salient points make in your posting is following: But what does worry some analysts is that Asian investors may begin pulling their money out of US treasury bonds and repatriating funds to prop up their own wobbly finances. If that happens on a large scale it could be catastrophic for America, which has a low 4.4% savings rate and would have to jack up interest rates to attract new buyers into government bonds. That, in turn, could be a signal for a much bigger sell-off in world share markets.

When this occurs hot-money will seek the ultimate universal shelter: GOLD.

Looks like Ol ORACLE has been looking in the right direction in calling the Dumping of T-Bonds and the purchase of GOLD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle627.html

I,m back! Havnt been able to post for months, I thought maybe I had been permanently squelched, although Bart never said so. Anyway, great posts by the regulars, more polarization/speculation on equities/metals likely short and medium term performance than I have seen in quite some time. Most of the arguments make sense ( the more I learn, the less I know? ) . A few tidbits- my stockbroker buddies support rotation from large-cap to medium, then to small, then penny stocks, then collapse. Russia has yet to deliver any Pt to Japan this year, recent TOCOM adjustments seem to support a short squeeze/rally play in Pa, Julian Roberts/Tiger Fund appear poised for moves in Pt/Pa. Gold generally seen as heading down, there is too much of the stuff, with more mine production coming on line.
Adios Amigos.

CAN ANYONE PULL UP THIS PAGE???? I ( REG ) CAN'T GET IN. IF YOU KNOW HOW, WITHOUT PULLING UP A ZILLION MEGABYTES +++ PLEASE POST IT ON THE STOCK & BULLION CHANNEL. I CAN GET INTO THAT...SOMEWHAT.

TED: Re Globe & Mail. I see a real Fed dilema under development. If Hanke is right then the Fed has lost its interest rate tool. So much money is coming out of bank accounts and going into the market a recent story posted here said that the Fed wanted to frighten the markets to get it going back toward the banks. Lower bank reserve requirements? Nope. It will spook bonds. Change margin requirements for stocks? Hmmm.

Lan Man - thanks for listings and website, Mr. Jenkins has parsed through
the point thoroughly.

"1. Money can be created or destroyed in the human mind."

This is partly the theme running through Mr. James Grant's
Money of the Mind; A History of Credit and Lending in America from
the Civil War to Michael Milken [1992]. Given a penchant for crafting
a sentence just so and trademark gloomy mouthings--

"In finance, decay is more colorful than probity, and the prevailing
direction of change in the past generation has only enriched the content
of the narrative."

Resist temptation...naaw. Married but once umpteen years. Staying
together for the children's sake...perhaps the children staying
"together" for OUR sake. A media event for a week, jokes start
on Tuesday before fading into the Orwellian mists.

One wonders about the extent of things like counterfeit currencies
or the average seven second camera angle of the national pastime.

Sensitivity? Yeah, I got sensitivity. Take care Oldman.

I'm still on spark watch. See mornings AP stories on Iraq and our threat in the Balkans - "most serious consequences imaginable"???? What the hell does that mean?

WW: Coke and Gillette seemed to be the two companies that started the recent slide. Pepsi always seemed the better tasting, and Schick the longer lasting blade. Coke & Gillette are marketing successes, not product successes in my opinion.

Tell me about German unemployment rates. How are they calculated differently? I never thought about the issue but it seems important.

Carl: I don't know but I certainly hope this report was not premature....UN experts in Iraq finished first step of their works
Iraq, Politics, 8/27/97

United Nations inspectors completed the first phase of their
work in Iraq without any problems and with assistance from
the Iraqi government.

UNSCOM sources said that they think there are still secrets
about the Iraqi weapons. The official Iraqi sources said there is
nothing for Iraq to hide.

The last three inspection teams have not faced serious
problems in Iraq, said Daniel Carlstrom, director of the control
center in Iraq, yesterday.

Meanwhile, Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohammed Saalhaf said
that Turkey is still executing military operations against Kurds
in northern Iraq.

Donald; In Germany people who drop out of the work force or are imprisoned are considered unemployed in the US they are not considered/ if they were the unemployment rate would be over 12%. Further, unlike Germany, 18& of our work force is part-time. Who has the stronger economy and higher living std. We are being fed Soviet type propaganda about the economy to keep people from examining what is REALLY going on. Hopefully Teamster's victory will raise worker conciousness. Workers may begin to gain upper hand as cheap labor countries de stabalize. Remember theses countries were always cheap labor it is govt support and dollar pegging which has allowed for operations to move off shore.

8 out of 9 Econ downturns since WWII have been preceded by a govt surplus or great deficit narrowing. In all but one case was followed by a recession which resulted in huge deficit increases.

WW: Thanks. If a female in Germany who is working and later decides to stay home and be a housewife counted as unemployed?

WW, Your info about German rate of unemployment is really interesting. Maybe the Mark-Dollar cross rate is more understandable than just looking at interest rates would imply. Dollar due for a fall? As for deficit narrowing leading to down turns in the economy, isn't this just confirmation that when the government taxes more ( total-not just rates ) it leads to reduced economic activity?

To BERNARD BARUCH and Dissappointed: A very great many people died yesterday around the world. Good people, loving fathers, gentle grandmothers, young children, teenagers with lives yet to be lived. Yet we heard nothing of their lives on TV. Do "we" only care about the elite & wealthy? What a pathetic statement about us ... where is our shame?

Donald: I read all this info in news article which did not go into detail but I would assume your thought is correct. Everything is done to put a rosy face on the employment situation so the politicians look good and corporate America can go on raping the working people. After all if everything looks rosy than you look ridiculous complaining and their policies can therefore continue unimpeded.

Further, German Labor costs more than US labor yet as a percent of the work force manufacturing is higher in Germany than US. Further, as an outgrowth of its policies the US is no. in wealth disparity. Establishment of broad based health care and education would properly help level the field. Even the former Communist Countries are leaving their Social Safety nets in tact. US shamefully stands out as the only industrialized country without universal health care. All this saving and yet we are the world's no. 1 debtor nation. Reaganism started everything in the wrong direction in this country.

Bank of England's George Says Pound's Strength Not Sustainable

The current strength of the British pound is greater than can be sustained over the long run, said
Bank of England Gov. Eddie George. The strength of the pound ``creates a tension between the
external and internal interests of the economy,'' said told central bankers and economists at the
Kansas City Fed's annual symposium. Financial stability is the topic of this year's conference, which
drew participants from Europe and the Pacific Rim as well as North America and South America.

France, U.K. Say EMU Doesn't Threaten Sovereign Credit Risk

European economic and monetary union needn't raise the credit risk of individual nations, central
bankers from France and the U.K. said today. ``I don't see exactly why sovereign risk would be
changed with monetary union,'' Bank of France Gov. Jean- Claude Trichet told central bankers and
economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual symposium. Appearing on the
same panel, Bank of England Gov. Eddie George expressed a similar sentiment. Neither official
offered reasons. Financial stability is the topic of this year's Kansas City Fed conference, which
draws participants from Europe and the Pacific Rim as well as North and South America.

As GSC has pointed out keeping the dollar strong is critical to the US financial Bull which is critical to the economy. This is why the incessant positive spin on the economy which really does not hold up under close scrutiny. Folks the Govts own figures show real income declining/ with spending rising this means more debt. The record bankruptcies are telling us how the consumer is keeping the econ above water. The Unions will save us when the big down turn is in full swing. A financial crash will greatly diminish the influence of the Corporate/financial circles and someone will fill the gap. I believe it will be a pro worker populist type movement which will replace the current anti-worker influences.

watcher.....re yours of Sat 00:16...I am also following both Franco and Euro Nevada, they have split twice in the last year and in my opinion are getting a bit ahead of themselves....in short good companies over valued.

Earl: I just got finished reading the postings from last night and this morning. I agree with your posting -- the markets will be exciting this coming week!

Roebear: Thanks for reposting my eclipse note from last week ( for Robert McKinnon ) .

EB: I like the stodgy, old, domestic gold stocks -- Homestake and Placer-Dome -- but, buy them only after the stock market has crashed. Stay out of them for now.

All: Default viewing options for this page
( http://165.247.202.114/cgi-bin/comments/gold/display_short.cgi?SHOWTYPE=LONG&SHOWORDER=TOPORDER ) have inadvertently been set for Jul 29 - Sep 1. That's more than 30 days worth of posts! So please hit the STOP button once you've gotten all the posts you want to read. Other folks are having trouble getting on. Thanks. ( Great posts the last few days ) .

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors

30 day regression table shows Defense in 1st place
FDPMX in 4th and FSAGX in 5th.

Speed: I never was a fan of the buy-and-hold strategy, either. Buy-and-hold is too simplistic. Investment requires constant analysis and change -- it's hard work but necessary. Values change with time, and investment requires snapping up the bargains and selling the over-priced items. Right now, stocks are over-priced and the precious metals are bargains.

WW: Let's see if I've got it straight. Ronald Reagan, who imposed import restrictions on foreign steel and forced the Japs to 'voluntarily' limit their wxtorts of autos to the U.S., is really to blame for the decrtease in U.S. workers' real wages under the Klinton free-trade regime. Don't make no sense a tall to this ol country boy.

BTW: Would the working class in Bangladesh become affluent if they only join the Teamsters union?

Donald - ww
I've been unable to locate an aricle which I read, wherein it specified the different classification methods used by the US in contrast with Germany.
However I recall that 'part-timers' was a big issue, as the US includes part-timers and I believe the Germans do not, or at least the US's have adopted less stringent guidelines & recognize more part-timers as 'employed' than Germany does.
I've visited the Bundersbank site and thus far have been unable to find what or if part-timers are included as employed or unemployed, or the number of hours etc.
http://www.government.de/.bin/lay/ausland/news/reports/reports97.html

Lurking Gbug: I'm saddened to learn that you don't like me. My arguements are directed at ideas, not people.

The 70% chance of a crash was my estimate of the odds of a crash, not the odds in the marketplace. Using the price of October options ( as someone pointed out a few days ago -- I forget who ) , the marketplace puts the odds of a crash at around 1 chance in 140. My money is better spent in the options market than taking your bet - where the odds are 1 chance in 3. Besides, you never revealed your name, address, or e-mail address to me. I would be the fool if I accepted a bet from someone who did not reveal their identity. In the event that I win, I want to know where to send my good buddy, 3-Fingered Louie, to help me collect in case you default.

Can someone post the date and time for bb fisher's two charts. Thanks

There was a discussion about the US giving money to the IMF specifically earmarked for loan to Mexico so that Mexico could repay the US and the pols could issue statements commending their own actions. How can I verify this? It seems too outrageous to be true. Or maybe too outrageous that I shouldn't have heard about it before this. I am tired of being lied to, but I would like to double check this before I start soap boxing. Thanks.

Nomercy the article I guess you posted mentioned how including the prison population as unemployed would raise our rate to 12%.

Oldman: The Free Ride or I mean Trade regime has its roots in the Republican Party. The majority of Dems voted against NAFTA. Further, Clinton tried to put worker protection and environmental riders on NAFTA and this was nixed by Republicans. The Republicans being in control is a perfect corrollary to the US financial Bull. When the Bull dies so will the bull..it!

The Teamsters would in fact do alot for a country like Bangla Desh where there is like the US an inappropriate and unhealthy degree of economic variation among the classes. BTW Pricess Di was an example for all super rich. And she was not galavanting she was with a friend in Paris which was ok as she was divorced. Further, her sons were on holiday with their dad so how could she be expected to be with him.

Ronald Reagan broke the Pilots Union which accelerated the down move in US std of living. He also lied about Iran/Contra. He was a disaster and we are now being punished for his ill advised policies. Also remember Reagan presided over a Capital Gains increase in 1986 and Clinton presided over a cut in 1997.

Puetz: Homestake isn't "stodgy". They hit a low in early July of 12 1/2 and even in the face of last weeks poor performance for gold stocks, HM was holding firm at 14. That may not raise goosebumps for the adrenalin addicted traders, but it's 10% in about two months and I can live with that!

Lurking Gbug, George Cole, Oldman, and others: You along with many other technicians have swallowed the idea that strength in secondary stocks is a postive sign -- that because of this, there is no immediate threat of a stock market crash.

Historically, the secondary stocks do lead the blue-chips, but not always. During August 1982, it was the blue-chips that started the power bull market of the 1980s, the secondary stocks followed. 1977 was another year ( this time a bear market ) when the blue-chips went down long before the secondaries tumbled.

I have studied market crashes, inside and out. I have read volumes, gathering every detail, on every conceivable crash, on every conceivable market factor -- to see if I could find any pattern on how they developed and why they developed.

I have already posted much of this information on Kitco. The primary factors that set up the potential for a crash is the development of a mania, with excessive amounts of credit used to push a market to grossly over-valued levels.

Once this mania has developed, then all that's left is a waiting game for the crash. Once a mania has developed, there is ONLY ONE way for it to undwind -- with a crash. That's because, once the market starts to decline, margin-calls come due. That breaks the back of the speculation, by forcing people to come up with money -- not to buy more stocks -- but just to hold their existing positions.

During the early stages of a crash, bargain-hunters generally continue to leverage up. That's happening today in the speculative secondary stocks, and it happened in 1929 with the Dow Utilities ( which, at that time, were speculative, go-go companies ) . Study the example below of how the Utilities behaved during the early stages of the 1929 crash and compare it to what is happening in 1997 with secondary stocks: I adjusted the Russell 2000 Index ( year 1997 ) and the Dow Utilities ( year 1929 ) to terms equal to the DJIA on August 6, 1997. ( There were 6 trading days per week in 1929. )

DATE 1929 UTILITIES 1997 RUSSELL 2000
----- -------------- -----------------
Week 1 8259 8259
8137 8247
8010 8131
8275 8100
8328 8076
8274
---- ----
Week 2 8085 8080
8188 8085
8109 8020
8135 8220
8135 8123
8245
---- ----
Weeks 3 8291 8226
8358 8186
8364 8161
8375 8207
8387 8211
8340
---- ----
Week 4 8193 8261
8164 8276
8325 8312
8198
8219
8097
----
Week 5 7911
7977
7470
7374
7739
7853
----
Week 6 7932
7900
8081
8055
7925
----
Week 7 7800
7322
7396
7126
6794
6634
----
Week 8 6928
6392
6109
6162
6075
----
Black Tuesday 4310
Nov 13, 1929 3812

Maybe this information helps explain why I am so extremely bearish the stock market now. Adjusted in percentage terms, today, the DJIA is mirrorring the 1929 DJIA -- almost day-for-day. So are the 1997 Russell Index and the 1997 Dow Utilities.

Almost all crashes have a divergent market that keeps going up while the rest of the market declines. In 1997, it's the secondary stocks that are acting as the bullish bait to keep speculators coming into the market.

However, if history is any guide, the strength in secondary stocks should begin to falter this coming week. The final burst of strength in secondaries should come around mid-September. Then, it's all down-hill after that. There will be a Lunar Eclipse on September 16th -- as the greatest crash of all-time will enters it's panic phase.

Stay tuned to Kitco!!!!!

Sorry about the 1929 versus 1997 table. It didn't come out on Kitco the way I typed it in. The columns got pushed together.

WW: I shouldnt have done it---not even on a long holiday weekend. I should've known. Hell I did know. I could stand in for you in an argument and give the same answer you would give to every conceivable question. I shall not do it again. The Only material difference between the Replublicrats is that the Democrats are slightly more friendly to international finance capital than are the republicans. If I could make a $5--thats FIVE DOLLARS--donation to determine which of the 2 parties control the government for the next 2 years, I'd buy a Burger King Happy meal instead. Gone from here.

Puetz: I dont disagree with your outlook, nor do I question your scholarship. I do doubt your credentials as a clairvoyant and i seriously disagree with your timing.This bull must get sick before it dies, and it's barely sneezed so far. The sooner the better for me, but a stiff sell-off into your mid-September time frame will be a huge buying opportunity for astute traders. Gone til next week.

With Churchillian clarity & logic Guest Guru Milhouse analyzes Alan Greenspans secret weapon to ensure economy doesnt dive. M-3 accelerated growth is keystone to higher GOLD prices:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse831.html

CURIOUS LURKER: You will find the two charts on the page for July 27, 1997 at 5:34 and 5:37 AM. Set your printer to horizontal. Trim the left edge of the 5:34 AM and match up the two halves with scotch tape.

Oldman, I take back every good thing I said about you. Even an abrasive, arrogant, condescending, SOB like me knows when you let someone of true greatness have a little respect. Di was morally superior to you and every other dork here, including myself. She had grace, poise, class, and devoted her life to the less fortunate instead of flaunting her wealth and position like our homegrown Hollywood, SPorts and financial types do.

As to the rest of you Dweebs trying to turn her death into yet another "conspiracy" or "trigger for market crash" you're lower than the Paparrazi who chashed her , literally, to death. rest in peace Di, the good die young....

Puetz, it's not you PERSONALLY that I don't like. It's investment "advisors", Newsletter sellers, and book sellers in general who sell bad advice to the masses. Folks who really aren't able to sift chaff from wheat. Most investors fall into that category, I'm sure you agree. I'm sure you're a nice guy, but I'm equally sure you have probably cost more naive investors, more money, than anyone else posting here over the past few years. Besides, I don't believe for a moment that you truly sincerely believe most of your predictions will happen in the time frame you give them. HOW ever, I'll be a "nice guy" where I can, whilst still delivering as biting and critical critique as I can muster, against perceived "Gloom and Doom" advice.

In Nairobi, inflows of dollars from the coffee and tea
industries helped firm the Kenyan shilling at close on
Thursday but overall sentiment remained weak as the
market awaited news from the IMF-Moi talks.
The shilling closed at a commercial mean of 65.91
against the dollar from 67.44 and from a close of 67.60 on
Wednesday.
Against the pound, the shilling closed at a commercial
mean of 105.65 from 108.85 and 108.53 at close on
Wednesday.

Market momentum direction is = to Quadratic money supply increase, multiplied by 3.2 X factor of foreign currency volatility, modified by the parabolic upside of Govt. economic figures, said figures inverted due to falsification factor, and summed with the Elliot wave X commodity event factors, to include El Nino, global warming, all Lunar and solar eclipses and Comet Hale Bopp. Intense and continous charting and graphing of these factors is required prior to any investment decisions.

LGB: I started to answer your hyperbolic invective in kind, but a small voice whispered to me, "Let him be. His is coming, cause, after all, he's gonna hold stocks til 2008.heheheheh!" gone~poof~

Rocco was surprised to see you mention 3-Fingered Louie, its been a long time. Rocco told me of their last encounter and proudly displayed a clear jar filled with formaldehyde and the two fingers suspended within. Rocco isnt mad anymore and asks if Louie would like his diamond ring back, it keeps falling off the finger, dropping to the bottom of the jar. Nice rock though, two, two and a half carets at least.

Let me know if you need Rocco. He started out kinda' liking this Gbug guy, but Rocco is an impatient man, redundancy incenses him. He has been pacing back and forth for days growling under his breath, his eyes like a caged jungle cat. Hes gonna want some action soon and this job you have set up with Louie sounds like just the ticket to break the boredom.

Rocco says to tell Louie, bygones is bygones, but hes keeping the fingers. He figures its minimum payment for the eight inch scar cut diagonally across his face, a reminder that Louie is handy with a knife in either hand. Anyway, Rocco says ask Louie to call or somethin. Ask him if he remembers Las Vegas, and why did he throw that bellboy over the fourth floor balcony and into the fountain?

JOHN WETTERAU: I posted that information about the Mexican Bailout from memory. I have been trying to reconstruct the information from several months ago with no luck so far. I will keep on it.

For George
Why do people read this kind of half smart crap??
What this analyst is saying is that the ANC has
the Government but it doesnt have the power. What else
is new?
She seems troubled by this. I am happy about it.
The ANC is splitting up slowly with Cosatu and with the
Communist party. I like that a lot. She doesnt seem to.
The government here is weak and getting weaker. I like
weak governments. WW of Vermont likes strong governments.
The Communists have no support among Blacks. They are
comprised mainly of White UK cast offs, a few silly
Indians, and some mixed up coloreds.
Labor unrest is not growing. It peaked maybe four
years ago. Cosatu is TRYING to get strikes and
demostrations going but crowds are in the order of
five to ten thousand when they used to be 50,000.
Silowa is afraid to play too hard or no one will show
up at the strike/demonstraion.
Government IS following the advice of business. At
least it has sense enough to do that. It really has no
ideas of its own thank God, and if it had, it would
lack the ability to implement.
Land reforms have stalled. Most "reforms" would have
been confiscatory and illegal under the constituiton.
Township Blacks who for years have not paid rent
nor electricity are now paying when threatened with real
cut-offs. That's a first. I like it. MZZZ Chenault
doesnt seem to.
George I think you have discovered an outstanding
spin doctor in MZZZZ Chenault.
But lets get her working on something more important
than the poor useless ANC and boring old Nelson Mandela
( the most over rated politician in the World ) .

Puetz: The principal reason I doubt the market will crash in the near future is not the strength in the small caps, but the minuscule number of new lows. All the big drops that I have looked at were preceded by a rapid increase in the number of new lows; we have not yet seen that this summer.

If you have the data, perhaps you could enlighten us on the trend in new lows during the weeks leading up to the 1929, 1937, and 1987 crashes.

George Cole, Steve Puetz: I did a rough count of the number of stock markets down 10% or more in recent days. I think there are about 15 now. I do not recall a similar event since 1987. Does anyone have any historical data on that? It seems meaningful and unusual.

EARL.........What is it worth to you to get rid of the moles ???? DID you post some sort of reward ??? I can tell you how to get rid of the moles in a very few days... NO PROBLEM....

John Disney: Thanks for your insights! BTW, that article was from BUSINESS WEEK -- one of our most widely read business magazines.

TED...You tempt me so much with the offer that one of these days ( maybe next summer ) I am going to take you up on the offer...For the metal detector, the White series is a fairly cheap detector and one that does a good job. There are some that cost a lot more and are better though.

Mahathir says IMF not helpful in Asian crisis. "They just want to say 'I told you so'" Thailand is worse off since their help, etc, etc
http://cnn.com/WORLD/asiapcf/9708/30/RB000102.reut.html

Scuse me Oldman, but rather than "Holding stokcs till 2008" I'm OUT of the market waiting for 7100 ( for the millionth time ) and I'll be back in and out as conditions warrant. Yes I'm violating "buy and hold" which , I have no doubt, has been the best advice for most investors for a couple of decades. That may change in time, when the economy sours, and the market has genuinely bearish fundamentals, definitely not the situation at the moment. Keep insulting the truly great ones of humanity just deceased Oldman, you unenlightened windbag. I ususally reserve "personal" comments for "professional" Advice peddlers. But in your case... I'll be happy to exchange vitriol with you any time. No matter who ends up right or wrong about matters financial in the coming years, even IF you make more money than all of us combined, you'll remain a paragon of classless MORON hood. In fact, I have crossed out the definition of "Imbecile" in my Webster's dictionary, and replaced it with "Oldman".

Puetz, I admire your stand and hope that most of your crash forecast comes true. I agree that gold stocks would not be saved in a serious crash unless - of course, gold price zoomed and held to a $400+ range.

The problem I find with statistics is that they are generated under different circumstances and subject to adjustments and used in different contexts. Historic stock crashes and corrections happened within markets that differ sufficiently to render a forecast based on the past a risky proposition.

The last ten years we have seen a major trend established of CBs selling gold for US$ paper. Asian countries have followed the Japanese lead of acquiring US paper. The YEN economy is still in trouble and the nominal yield on YEN is about two percent. Asian tigers are deflating. The Germans are fighting high unemployment after the GDR merger and trying to keep her economy from recession.

Without the aide of a pending YEN rate rise or DM rate rise the US dollar is free-basing uncontrollably and the world, x-USA, is continuing to fuel the US stock fire by buying US$ denominated paper debt that is a necessary precondition to keep the bond market from tanking and the stock market from crashing.

The stock crash scenario requires that the x-USA lenders stop fueling the US dollar and debtmaker machinery. Unless there is a statistical headwind clearly indicating that - in light of the Tiger currency problems - that the US dollar's strength is abating then there is no clear evidence to suggest that a stock crash is pending.

Why would the Tigers or Japan or Germany not dump US paper or raise domestic rates ?

I think that Alan Abelson's and Forsyths column in the recent Barrons had indicated the possible answers. In a nutshell, the Asians would be saved by a Japan inspired IMF bailout so there is no need for the Aisans to dump US paper. The Japanese economy still has problems and a higher YEN would not help matters especially since their Tiger competitors now compete more cheaply against Japanese exporters. The Germans have not indicated that a rate rise is pending even though there was some talk on-off for the past few weeks. A DM rise ( visa vi the US$ and YEN ) would make German exports more expensive, especially since the Asian Tigers have become - since the currency devaluations - more competitive.

So the world is a much more integrated and different place that empirical statistics would otherwise suggest.

Notwithstanding the preliminary conditions that forewarn of a crash - manias and extended stock ratios with recent tops established - the US$ is still strong and - more important to us folks - gold has lost much of its shine for many reasons indicated many times on this thread - CB sales, low inflation and massive short selling.

I hope that gold does turn hard and fast but I don't expect a major rise in the short-term until our friend the trend turns and inflation is reported and digested so that the FED has a good excuse to raise the rates and close the bar before too many others get intoxicated by the stock BULL.

It really comes down to foreigners fueling the US buck and US stock markets. Until we see a serious dump of US paper then it would be premature to expect a near-term crash based on empirical statistics borne from an era when places like Mexico and the TIGERs were still 3rd world
basket cases; Japan was either a kingdom unto itself ( 1929 ) or an economic miracle ( 1987 ) and Germany was not economically challenged by a 3rd world German province inherited after the collapse of the GDR.

I remind you that inflation was a big topic for most of post WWII and it was one of the leading causes of great stock runs and falls during the 70's and 80's - now it's a forgotten topic in most financial spin media.

The world is much different than 1929 or 1977 or 1987 so I don't expect to see a great crash unless the x-USA world begins to dump US paper and inflation numbers begin to scare the FED.

Cheers.

Excuse me Puetz, oh Guru of sound methodological analysis. I mispoke when I ridiculed your analytical approach and accused you of factoring in a solar eclipse as a trigger. I see now by your lengthy post, it's a LUNATIC...uh I mean LUNAR eclispe that is the cataclysmic event! I take it all back...... ( Frightened now about blood on the moon.... buy gold ....LGB )

My sentiments exactly.....

John Wetterau: Here is part of the story. Note the information toward the bottom. This is June 19, 1996.
http://www.economeister.com/curracct/960619ca/mxloa2pe.htm

PEUTZ: I wish to acknowledge how much I appreciate your posts. Unlike others, such as that pesonas of dingbats LGB, who merely express an opinion on the direction of the market with little if any evidenciary reasoning, you provide factual objective support for your conclusion. Thus you not only provide an opinion on the market for us to consider, but an education in market analysis as well. Thank you.

Auric e.mailed me this story. He can't access Kitco for some reason.
More problems for the yen.
http://news.bridge.com/INO/story800.html

Somebody tell Ricky to change the number ( automatic default from July29 to August29 ) it's costing Bart $$$$$$$$$$$. asapplease

SKYLARK: Well said.

Yes Skylark, always much better to be consistently wrong for years on end based on exotic analytical models, that to be RIGHT and make 300 % plus in 10 years based on sound fundamentals...

Out of curiosity, how is the squelch button going to work when it is implemented? Is this a devise to subdue folks like oldman who might say what he thinks even it it is not politically correct? Or is it a devise to express dissent with an opinion. I abhore the former and feel comfortable with the latter. LGB, I'm a lot more impressed with someone who quietly helps others without recognition than someone supported without working by the labor of others whose charitable deeds are done in front of a news camera and whose good deeds are heralded in the morning headlines.

PUETZ: As I occasionally thank Bart for allowing us into his sandbox, I also feel that some regular posters deserve a note of praise now and then for the things they share with us all. You are one of them. As to who is right or wrong, time and tide will tell for all of us. As for judging a person's motives, that cannot fairly be done, except by ONE. While I respect many at this forum, even some with whom I disagree, or with whom I get irritated, I have not yet come across any who would fit the description of one so all-powerful that they can see into a man's heart. I for one believe you are sincere in what you believe and say. As a writer, a promoter, and an evangelist for many unpopular causes, I can tell who is doing something because they are true to their ideas and ideals, and who is pulling a scam. Your civility, idealism, sportsmanship, and inherent decency come through for me. These are not virtues to be taken lightly. In this regard, you are a man who is already right. And besides, you know how I feel about things lunar myself!

John Wetterau: I am getting closer.

The $64 question ( give or take a few tens of billions ) is whether
the repayment was funded simply by borrowing fresh funds using
loan guarantees from the US, the IMF, the World Bank et al. If
so, the debt has simply been transferred out of Mexico's hands
and into the hands of the US taxpayer. See Pat Buchanan's
columns on this subject in the Washington Times back when the
issue was being debated - he gives a fuller, clearer explanation
than I can here.

Sunday, 26-Jan-97 21:46:42

Mahathir is one of the worlds most independent politicians ( HOPEFULLY STATESMEN ) , for he abhors the conditions that World Monetary Authorities will place on his country.
I hope a new determined block developes for the lower Asean and Asian coastal economies; the wild cards are Japan and maybe China.
If such occured, those who control the Worlds money would receive their just reward and we will all be better for it.

Will China get their 'wish'. Now or later? The world fundamentals are changing...
The wisdom in remaining vague about the boundaries of
Japanese reach in the region was brought home in August,
when the Chinese were inflamed by a suggestion from Japan's
chief Cabinet secretary, Seiroku Kajiyama, that the area
covered by the defence guidelines should include the Taiwan
Strait.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970901/world/wtokyo.html

JERUSALEM ( August 31 ) -- A new controversy between Israel and the Palestinian Authority is
swirling up on the eve of US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's scheduled visit that could
poison the atmosphere in which it takes place.

Albright is due here September 10.

The PA has written that the second troop redeployment stipulated in the Oslo Accords has to be
implemented by September 7, six months after the first aborted redeployment which included 2
percent from area C and 7% from area B. This redeployment was rejected by the PA as
inadequate and heralded the current crisis.

The government says that no such requirement exists to redeploy in September, implying that the
Palestinian demand will not be fulfilled.
http://www.jpost.co.il/News/Article-0.html

Yes and PT Barnum had an appropo comment for followers of Mr. Puetz. ( Whom I'm sure is a nice guy and a gentleman )

...If their stocks collapse, will they sell US bonds?

Analysts are predicting a meltdown on the Hong Kong market today. They say the Hong Kong market has to
come down further because it is now too expensive compared with regional markets.

Pressure to sell is particularly great for banking and property stocks, which are the backbone of the Hong Kong
market.
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970901/world/world1.html

Whats a crash? Is it just that stocks go down a lot and lots of people lose lots of money? That would be unfortunate and happens from time to time but its not what worries me. A major decline would be really dangerous to all of us if a large amount of money is lost by people and institutions which they dont have and cant pay. Thats the calamity which will spread to ever increasing default circles which will envelope those who didnt think they had anything at risk. I have no idea what level of the world markets it would take to set off such a crash much less when or if it will happen. I do know with some confidence the signs that individuals give when they are acting irrationally and are likely to put themselves and others in danger.
Today I see and hear and read such signs nearly everywhere when people talk about money, investments and economic security. Large numbers of people seem to be sure that they know things that, try as I might, I cant fathom. They think, act and talk as if making bets on financial instruments is the way to the good life and that somehow new technology will provide value required for that life without benefit of thought or work. A major financial publication is named Investors Daily and within purports to discover the best Investments nearly all of which pay no dividends or any other kind of return. Instead, your return is supposed to be a capital gain which of course you shouldnt ever really take because you should buy and hold. I fully expect that the Daily Racing Form will soon also change its name to Investors Daily. Technical analysts concoct indicators which are based on data analysis that wouldnt get by the silliest doctoral committee, and thats saying something. Yet these indicators are used to inform the movement of lifetimes worth of earnings in the markets. People are saving billions of dollars by putting the money into accounts which they believe actually have that money in there ( saved ) when in fact the money is not only not being saved, it isnt even being invested. Its being used as a speculation which may or may not ever be returned, much less yield a return.
Still, its not the loss of large amounts of money by people that have that money which constitutes the crash that I fear. It is the crash of peoples lives who have spent their time and energy preparing for the good life and are left clueless as to what to do to obtain happiness without their delusional expectation of unearned wealth. I fear I know what the reaction will be - ANGER.

Tort: In my case the squelch button will be used to eliminate the time and space used by those who have nothing to contribute to the topic but insist on appearing here daily anyway. This includes jokers as well as gun sellers, weather forcasters, and those who specialise in posting news articles in their entirety.

Question. I understand the short term position you two have taken re important historical TA factors ( or is that T & A factors ) , such as the September eclipse. My question is, can we have the benefit of these advanced analytical models as applied to long term predictions for the extremely important markett influencing event taking place in May of 2000? You know the one I mean, the alignment of the planets...... Love that advanced analytical research and methodology guys, ( LGB @ Smoke, Mirrors, and Witchcraft for the masses... )

CARL: There will be a crash and even someone like myself who expected and planned for it will be hurt. Some of my financial affairs are beyond my control. And, there will be anger. The main question is how it will be expressed and what will be the reaction of the government to that expression. That is why I have resisted making predictions beyond the crash itself ( deflation ) and the period after the first post-crash election. Mabye I shouldn't even predict that there will be a post-crash election.

( LGB, have you ever explored "rage-therapy" ? )

At the tent:
one by one, the stakes are failing
tie-ropes are breaking
tigers trembling
imf fingers in the dam
trembling

more fingers needed
then are what am

stakes go first
than the outer poles
finally the center pole
collapses

and in the dust
and in the debris

and in the anguish and ashes

the rubble will reveal
eternal gold

Oh my, I log on after a few days and can see that the civility dropped
and personal attacks are up by a bunch of points. Reminds me a volatility
in today markets ;- )

Ted, late but sincere Happy B-day.

Unfortunate death of princes Di:: I never thought its appropriate to
discuss persons virtue at the moment of death. Human being is gone and
you wont make her better or worth by over ( under ) rating her. Leave that
up to Almighty above.

To all: Most of predictions and analyses look a bit one-sided and limited
in scope ( not considering complexity of todays market ) Many times it
looks to me like we are trying to justify a specific trend or our belief.
Overall I believe that multiple corrections with total magnetite equal
to crash will occur. Timing is a different story and I would side with
George Cole and Oldman thinking that it is not imminent but itll happen
sooner that some optimists believing in very positive picture of US
economy.
While the picture may look good considering I believe ( and many
economists support that view ) that the picture will deteriorate quite
rapidly. Many of you stock market proponents use a change to global
economy as very positive. To be honest, what I see scares me. It is true
that the global market helped to boost the growth of US economy,
however, with destabilization of financial markets, EU, and strength of
US dollar, etc., how can US economy continue growing? To whom will we
be selling? Do you really think that everybody in the world will keep
pumping money into US markets after company revenues and profit will stop
growing? Yeah, lets chip in make some money, push P/E a bit higher,
there is no tomorrow. You may inflate the bubble a little bit more but
the noise when it bursts will be much louder.
Domestically, the picture is not so rosy either. Read between the lines
not only official statements. There were already some posts about "real"
productivity gains ( not much! ) Production growth in the last quarter went
mostly into increased inventories - now we can not continue produce just
to build inventories without selling, can we? Cost of labor starts to
increase - just wait until the next year, many companies align increases
with end of year.
As far as government policy goes, I think the approach is very
shortsighted and for the sake of immediate gratification they sacrificed
the future. Watch out you guys who believe in rosy picture.

JMHO

JOHN WETTERAU: More on the IMF and Mexico
http://www.buchanan.org/survive.html

GEORGE COLE: I am not much of a technician but a friend of mine who is follows the number of pluses and minuses of the 25 NYSE Most Active "by share volume" stocks published in Barron's ( page MW6 ) . This week only 4 of the 25 were in the plus column. The trend here has been poor. What do you think of his indicator?

Please- anyone have the url for EBN Commodity updates??

Donald, thanks for the links concerning the Mexican bailout. I understand the suspicion of a flim flam, but I still don't have enough facts. Someone reputable somewhere must have summarized this story. Wasn't a Whelan mentioned? Please don't go out of your way following this up. If I get sufficiently worked up I'll find the facts. Just faster if someone on the thread can point me at a good source.
John

August 31, 1997
*Bre-X debacle could happen again, say book authors*

TORONTO ( CP ) - Authors of the first Bre-X book to hit store shelves say they've reached the "horrible conclusion" that a similar gold fraud could happen again.

No gold. The news sent Bre-X shares tumbling, destroying a company that was once worth $6.2 billion and wiping out the savings of thousands of investors.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Bre-X-Book.html

OLDMAN: Your comments regarding the death of Diana, only confirm to me that you are a pathetic little person. The entire WORLD is in mourning for one of the most respected human beings. You on the other hand disgustingly insult her death, cowardly, behind your computer screen. As of this time forward your posts here can only be taken as complete rambling foolishness. OLDMAN you have made me sick to think that I come on to this site and read the postings of a person that is completely filthy as yourself!!!!

JOHN WETTERAU: There is a reference to a Washington Times story a year ago. I searched the site but found no reference. Thay may not go back that far. It was a political issue more than a year ago with those who were opposed to the Mexican bailout in the first instance making the claim.

RJ: I got a good laugh from your posting. It sounds like Rocco might be a better man for the job than 3-Fingered Louie.

Bernie and Watcher..You will find a chat site for your mining stocks at http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/stocktalk-17
Scroll down to Franco & Euro... Also has many other companies.
LGB.. If Dow at 7100, I do hope you will let us know what types of stocks you will purchase.. Would be most interesting.

Donald, the more I read, the more incredible the whole mess appears. It would seem that everyone lost but the usual suspects on Wall St. I won't post any more about it until I learn more; it is in the past and not directly related to gold. Still, society requires trust. If our government can't tell the truth, if we continue to elect liars, our society is finished over the long run, and even gold may not be hard enough.
John

Well, Nick, I ask a perfectly legitimate question about the squelch button and this drives you into a personal tirade about my jokes and Ted's weather reports and stock updates. I find a little variety to be of interest to most people on this site. You act as though there were a limited amount of space on this formum and that those who don't talk gold every second are somehow offending your sense of purpose. You don't have to read the jokes or the weather reports. You can use your find button to ferret out the word "gold" if your senses are so refined and so easily offended. Some find a joke a good release from being clobbered in the market. I've been clobbered my share this year and enjoy a joke to take my mind off it occasionally.

Donald: Good point about the blood-bath in overseas markets. All crashes have been international in scopt. Even going back the year 1720, after the Mississippi Bubble collapsed, stock market bubbles in England and Holland soon came down also.

In addition, the situation here in 1997, with foreign money pouring into the US, it reminds me of a Jesse Livermore quote from 1929. Livermore wrote that Wall Street was "a colossal suction pump -- the suction is fast producing a vacuum in Europe." Indeed, Europe started to collapse first during 1929, the US followed shortly thereafter.

Oldman: I see that Mother Teresa has said that Princess Diana was an inspiration to her. She is an old woman so perhaps it is prudent for you to prepare your views on the Nun.

Bob: The more things change, the more they remain the same -- at least human-nature wise. I believe investors ( the population of investors as a group ) will react the same way, and in the same time-frams as they have during past panics. Once we close below DJIA 7500, the odds of a crash jump from 70% to 95%.

Lurking Gbug: You may think I'm a lunatic. However, I think the lunatics are the speculators who have borrowed heavily to buy stocks ( home-equity loans, credit-card loans, margin debt, and every borrowing from retirement funds ) . In a little over a month, we'll know for sure who the lunatics are.

Skylark and Mike Sheller: Thanks for the supporting comments.

Bart: It's happening again, just like last night. I've seen a few others complain about it also -- I can't retrieve any old postings. All I get is a blank screen when I ask for the August 31st postings.

US getting tough with PLA...requesting more reciprocity...
"We're tightening the screws as much as we can," a
Pentagon official was quoted by Defence News as
saying. "We're no longer going to be satisfied with
visits to the Great Wall and duck dinners."

He said the Pentagon would recommend keeping a
strict ban on sales of arms or high-technology to
China - an area in which frictions could emerge with
other departments such as Commerce, which is
pitching for US technology firms eager to enter the
Chinese market.

He also said China would be told further
co-operation would be difficult unless it was more
transparent about its military budget and facilitie
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970901021149055?=china&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=1769

Try this for your EBN stuff

http://www.ebn.co.uk/Markets/Commodities/

TTFN

First currency turmoil...then plunging stock markets...recession...and El Nino looming ahead...
Great financial panics have often followed
ecological disasters. Dust bowl America and the
ruined cotton crop presaged the 1930's great
depression, while Britain's freak 1987 hurricane
eerily preceded the black Monday crash.

The linkages between financial markets, economic
activity and the external world are poorly
understood. Most of the time they hardly matter.
Our conquest of nature allows freak weather, failed
crops and great disasters to be clinically factored
into expectations.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970901000604057?=rel&template=related.htx&maxfieldsize=3972?evID=19970901000604065//?evTop=mar//?evTemp=Default.htx//?evMFS=3268//

Where and Steve in the dominions: I apologize for my inability to see the magnificent greatness in that paragon of motherly virtue, Lady Diana. Only ignorance or downright meanness could have blinded me, O, these 15 years to this great light among us. She undoubtedly represents the ultimate pinnacle toward which the English speaking peoples have been striving ,lo this millennium and a half.

If a handful of disillusioned goldbugs can get this worked up over someone who dissents from political correctness, I sure pity the politicians who will be held responsible for the stock mania when it ends.

As for your assertions regarding my anonymous cowardice, I have posted my name, address and email on this site, which as far as i know, you have failed to do. You're welcome to come here any time to test my mettle any time you feel froggy enough. If you use the language to my face that you use in the cozy anonymity of cyberspace, one of us will be carried out. I'll send you the ticket and have you picked up at the Orlando airport, should you chose to come.

Now, until things look better in the metals market, I bid you adieu.

My,aren't WE gettin testy....Miro ( 18:17 ) Thankx.....Tort ( 19:31 ) Give em hell!...What time do returns in Hong Kong start comming in???

Ted, what did you do for your birthday? By the way, how is the weather up there? I wonder if we might prevail upon someone here at the site to provide traffic reports. In LA its always congested so that might be a waste of space here. I think the spitefulness about weather reports comes from having nothing but smog and soot in the air--sort of jeoulosy on the part of the previous poster being terminally caged in LA. I think the Hong Kong gold market opens about 6PM MST.

Let the first man/women without sin casted the first stone!! We've got some Doctor Dementos here, sometimes!!

oldman: You may as well surrender and save your typing fingers. Monarchies and their lovers have survived for thousands of years, the inept and inadequate of the world need a live idol for their fantasies.

Mother Theresa? That wimpette?That bleeding heart? She missed the whole damn bull-market in a lunatic vow of poverty. You gonna believe her and her human redemption snake oil? What did she ever do for me, bathing sores on lepers in the filthy streets. She wanna piece a me? I'll send her a ticket on a airoplane. Ain't got time to take the fastest train. I'll jump her before she even gets out of the terminal. Someone hold my coat.

Dear Diana, et al.,
I am not, at the moment, certain of mythology's beauty & meaning, of ..."Diana".

I am certain, evenso, that we are all, 'inter-connected', and equally valid, in the way of 'the force' ..... including: "oldman", "lurkinggoldbug", "donald", "bpuetz", "cherokee", "vronsky", "bob", "circus-master", "miro", "goldbug23", "steve", ... etc. ,,,,

we are -- are we not --all of us, expressions of that 'force' that sustains us all, including, "diana", including, where she is now...?

When we attack one another, it is but an effort to get at the truth, of who we really are: "bits" & "pieces" of "the force". Though this may serve us, in a way .... to sift & winnow the wheat from the chaff, of timing-market-truth, and of our own innate truth; is there not a better way?

What if, we were more interested in kindly dialogue, and genuine, open sharing; acknowledging that none of us has a monopoly on truth ...
not even 'me'.

not even
'here'

not even
'now'

Anybody else has problem with accessing EBN? Did they change URL?
My server tells me it can not find it and I am using the same URL
for a long time.

DBC shows DOW +193 points at 7887. I guess they've joined a prediction
game. Or maybe they report wishfull thinking? ;- )

Chinese businessmen getting burned
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970901/world/world2.html

KITCO: Please reset automatic default numbers ( month )

Weather: Mostly cloudy in the morning followed by partial clearing in the afternoon and the current conditions are dark and 54 degrees...Do you want the FIVE day forcast???? Re-what did I do today: Read some of my new book ( Fear,Greed and the End of The Rainbow ) read yesterdays Globe+Mail..
watched some foootball on BOOB-tube...and did a little gardening...and thanked God I didn't live in LA....

Australian stockmarket down another 12 points to 2580. Quite a drop now from 2780 a month ago. How quickly we forget.
NICK - LA. Most of the regular submitters of news items do so at much time & effort to themselves. Most, I am sure, go out of their way to edit what they post. It is one of the better aspects of Kitco, how you can get immediate RELEVANT posts about world financial matters as they happen. Kitco is one of the best info sites for investment advisers that I can think of. We do a bit each, & benefit richly thereafter from the efforts of Donald & so on. The life of an editor is not easy. You can't please everyone. As far as full article submission, sometimes there is no URL to link to.

Bre-X thievery promoted in a 3rd world country wipes 6.2 bil $ from the honest people of the investment world, its very sad. I'm wondering what if any of you people could tell me the cheapest trading gold company on all the North American exchanges? Reserves versus Market Price??

OLDMAN: Lets see what mettle you are so bravely talking about ( behind your computer screen ) Post your name, address and telephone number here on KITCO now!

I see that the Globex is open with S&P +140

Asian equity markets mixed ....Nikkei up 27.31 ( 0.15% ) ...

To all - I am one of the very early members of this group and would like to remind you all of a few things. First of all, Bart has provided us all with a forum to communicate. We all owe him a great Thank You for that. Secondly, in the country that I live in, free speach is sacred. We have had many comments on this forum from people in other countries where they do not enjoy this freedom, some of them are not allowed to speak here anymore. Think about that for a minute or two.

There has been much discussion here about a squelch button, etc. I already have one, its called 'forward' or 'page down' or what ever. I support very strenuously anyone's right to post a comment. I don't have to agree with it. or even read it. I can simply skip past it and it doesn't bother me one iota.

Now. some of you are appalled by the comments by Oldman. I, for one, support his right to say what he wants to. He has contributed much to my understanding of certain events and thinking. No, I don't always agree with him, but he has the right to his own opinions. Likewise with others who have posted and are not always popular. They also contribute to our knowledge, at least we know what they think, even though we do not agree with them.

We all should enjoy this forum as a place where ideas and opinions flow freely, for that is what freedom truely is.

Arden; please do not confuse a gov't using coercion to stop or proscribe speech vs. an indivuals denouciation where coercion is not an option

Arden ( 21:17 ) Amen......

Seems you are correct gentlemen, The EBN site seems to be down. In all seriousness, perhaps a day of mourning was called an the offices are closed? I haven't heard anything official but it's possible I would imagine.

TTFN

Prophetic Economist George S. Cole foresees lackluster gold performance until the greenback tanks. Once the dollar turns south & short interest remains high, an explosive up move is a good bet:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/cole831.html

Oldman, Tortfeasor, TED -- WOW! Speech police everywhere!

Happy Birthday Ted...

FWIW column -- ABN ( http://www.abn.com.sg/feeds/commodities.html ) has gold down $0.15. Does anybody buy this stuff anymore?? One would, 'speculate', that with Asian currencies in turmoil, gold would move. Alas, this does not seem to be the case.

Thanks Roebear. Thanks to Shek's pointing out that the post was Puetz's
I was able to find it after a fairly lengthy search. I sent Puetz an
email about it, I hope he got it.

ANYONE Been to Texas for 12 days and off the net and out of touch. Only my 3rd post, but what has happened that when you go to read full text and come back, you re-enter at the last post. Formerly, you came back where you clicked out. WHO is predicting the drop for Tues & Wed, then the rally, a test of the old XAU low, then a possible BULL in gold?

Steve, do you recall any stk mkt crash/correction where the US$ was the trigger ?

Cheers

I for one totally agree with the comments Oldman expressed about Lady Diana. It is very sad that the very thing that was used in all the authoritarian countries to keep the peasants happy is successfully being applied to America. You see, in authoritarian country you did not need to accomplish anything great yourself - you could live your life "through" royalty. This is the same kind of nonsense that allows many people to "satisfy!?" their ambitions by watching their favorite football team.

The fact that so many people in the US are getting their excitement by following the lives of celebrities ( including the British royalty that was kicked out of here at the origination of this nation ) , is a very sad commentary on the state of affairs in the USA. The USA is philosophically bankrupt. Nobody understands what the origins of the US were about. Nobody understands that a ban on hereditary titles was one of the key developments - a statement, as you will, of belief in peoples individuality and equality. A ban on massing economic power in hands of one individual or a small group of them was another. This is why gold was supposed to be the only LEGAL currency of the USA.

What is so special about Lady Diana? How is her life philosophically different from lives of welfare recipients who live off the wealth robbed from productive individuals through taxes? Lady Diana, all of the British royalty ARE the same category of people the welfare bums are: Social Parasites.

I am very saddened that US have fallen so low! Down to the point where they look for identity in the "aristocratic?!!!!!" figures of the Kennedys, Jackie Onnasis, Clintons ( yuuuuuck ) , British royalties, or OJ.

Panda ( 21:33 ) Thankx....pretty heavy with the "speech police"...eh! Be careful what you say!!....know any "weather jokes"???....on L.A.....
what is gold doing tonight???

To Free? I am not quite sure what you are trying to say, but to me, it does not matter whether it is a government or an individual trying to repress my right to speak freely. I am entitled to my own opinion, as are you. I respect your opinion, as I would like you to respect mine. You do not have to agree with me in any form or way, but, where I come from, you have the right to speak freely, as do I. It has nothing to do with governments, it has to do with individuals and their respect for each other. Individual form governments, and thus, they are responsible for them.

Or down for that matter. These are some sites that need to be corrected.
ABN-Posting August 27 date now.
DBC- Posting Dow UP 193.48 last Friday at closing.
EBN-Down
Sometimes I get the feeling they just don't want you to know what's going on.

panda : Try http://www.hkabc.net/cgi-bin/mtl-cgi

Panda, I checked for thought police before I posted, but I hear the rustling of thought suppressors in the back yard and the sound of creaking hobnail boots. Maybe I should have turned the back lights on before I posted. I take it back. I was wrong. No more posts for me without the G word. Ted better only talk about golden sunshine and silver clouds on his weather posts. I'm off to read a little Dean Koontz. Night All.

Your response to oldmans post was WELL SAID. Anyone have any info for me on my 21:42 post?

Dollar is stronger against the yen and gold is down at the open in Hong Kong. http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/apbreak.htm

Hong Kong Market -136.85 ( -0.97% )
Globex-S&P500 was +140, now UNCH.

Here's an interesting site ( for paperbugs ) that was touted in the WSJ last month. It looks like they've finally got it up and running. In the words of those who maintain the site: . . . [ http://www.riskview.com ] "allows you to look at investment return, estimate risk, and potentially improve your investment performance. It is the first free source of global equity data and risk analytics. It allows you to measure total returns and estimate risks with the same sophisticated tools used by investment banks and institutional fund managers. . . at no charge to you."

I do believe those who are upset with Oldman are so ONLY because of his timing. Not a thing he said would've raised an eyebrow two days ago. And Tort summed up my own feelings about it very nicely. Still, I do feel badly about the way commoner Di was chewed up and spat out by a rotten royal family. She didn't deserve it, nor her awful death. Down with monarchy!

Oldman, Petronius: AMEN!!!

Arden: You had a great posting about free speech. Some are irritated by some of the postings, here at Kitco. Lurking Gbug is an example. Yet, Lurking Gbug reflects the sentiment of the majority. It's important to have that viewpoint stated.

Furthermore, Lurking Gbug has challenged my positions, which, in turn, has forced me to defend my position. Some of my best postings ( at least judged from the comments I have received in my e-mail and Kitco postings ) have been a result of my respones to Lurking Gbug's criticisms of my position. Those critical of Lurking Gbug should really be thanking him for stating the opposing viwpoint. Those criticisms force me to continually defend myself.

I might not be so kind to Lurking Gbug if I were not so confident with my position. But I hope everyone sees my point. Finally, Arden, your comments about free speech so closely mirror mine, and they were so well said, that I couldn't help but feel good about it. Keep posting, Arden!!

Bob: I don't know that there is a definite connection between changes in the US $ and crashes. However, I will say this -- There is a strong correlation ( among countries that run external deficits ) between financial stability and the external in-flows of capital. If foreigners should ever stop funding our trade-deficits and our budget-deficits, then a crash in the dollar and our stock market is certain.

Oldman--

While reading your earlier comments regarding Lady Di, you come off as a priggish little prick! Has it been this way your whole life?

Long Live The Queen!

OLDMAN,PETRONIUS, sHEK: I also agree with you. Is the media now trying to glorify her after hounding her to her death? Many people in the media are something else. We deserve better. On motorcycles yet.

To All: With all the opportunities to practice, it's getting easier to scroll through the vituperative tripe that has been cropping up with increasing frequency lately. But, in the greater scheme of things, it's a small price to pay for the over-all superlative quality of ideas, information and honest interlocution that flows through this site.

And, speaking of small prices to pay, I've often thought about the price we pay for tapping into this valuable tool.

Nothing.

And that bothers me. I'm not a fan of monthly subscription fees, yet I try to think of a way that I could support Bart/Kitco without a monthly commitment. I find that I have no current use for his company's services/products. That got me thinking about another "free" service - Public Radio. Anyone can listen and no one has to pay. But once a year, they do this membership drive thing and people, of their own free will, choose to contribute at whatever "level" they're comfortable with. I haven't formulated anything concrete, but I submit this as a vague proposal for your consideration. Let's figure out a way to make September a "pledge" month and each send Kitco a few bucks. In these fast-moving times, I have really come to value and appreciate Kitco as a clearinghouse for information that cannot easily be obtained elsewhere. It has given me the knowledge to make or lose many thousands of dollars - my choice - based on my interpretation of unfolding events and how I should react to them.

For what it's worth, how about we kick this idea around?

JRL: I'm all for your idea. However, we need to get the bugs at Kitco worked out first. All I can these past 2 days are the postings since my last hit on Kitco. No matter what I request, for example, all the postings for 8-31-97, all I get back are the postings since my last hit. Something has changed at Kitco since friday.

TED -- Howdy! I think gold has died, we should bury it before...

Tortfeasor -- Petronius has it correct! I have always found these 'things' most absurd. How many people died in the U.S. last year in auto accidents?

Petronius -- Very well said! I always wondered what the reason was for that revolution thing back in the 1770's. I'm so confused now that whats-his-name Kennedy isn't running for governer in the state of Mass. How am I to live my life now? :- ) )

Regarding Lady Di -- Judging by the comments I've heard in the news, it seems to me that people are/were living vicariously via Diana. Petronius, you are correct. It is a sad statement of our times.

The international markets seem to be on the defensive again tonight.

No reply yet to my 21:42 post. Do you have to be an old timer on this to get a reply? Does anyone know? OR is my post not nasty enuf to be one of the in crowd here?

You are right, something has surely happened here at Kitco since Friday, and it "ain't" for the better as far as I can tell.

A joke! A joke! for levity and get minds off the media voyeurism...


The Nazi's come in to occupy Paris and visit a young Pablo Picasso's art studio/flat, already a budding young artist. The SS
officer admires a painting of a woman on the wall for a long moment
and inquires, "That's nice, did you do that?"

Young Pablo: "No. You did."

Puetz: It looks like someone at Kitco ( or at their presence provider ) made a change, then went away for the weekend. I'm at the opposite extreme and am getting endless megabytes everytime I log on. It sounds like you're being haunted by a cookie remnant. I'm not sure what platform you're on, but you can go to http://www.cookiecentral.com/ to find out how to get rid of it -- and all other cookies -- for good.

GREATGRAMPS: A lot of strange things are happening on the site tonight and not the same for everyone. I am sure Bart is working on it.

When you get the postings since your last hit, click on SUBMIT and it will bring up all the past ones.

GREATGRAMPS -- There have been some format changes on this site. If your browser is setup to automatically accept cookies, you won't notice what's happening. Everytime you access this site a cookie is sent to you. This cookie establishes your last access time. The purpose of this was to conserve bandwidth. After a little experimenting, I sure you'll figure it out.

As for gold, I think it died in some freak Central Banking accident. There hasn't been a funeral because gold had led such a 'terrible' life. :- ) )

It seems that the EBN site is down, ABN site is up ( ? price doesn't seem to change ) , Globex drifting slowly down, but not by much.

JRL: Be advised that although some onlookers are ill educated with regard to economic matters we are still bugs at heart and every once in while
need to vent. Please be mindful, our tripe is part of the whole and,a common supportive bond is important in team play. We can't all play quarterback. We will not be insulting. We simply want to listen. Try
to be bigger than the average player and thank you for having me. PS :
Who is Dana and where are you? I remember your posts as enlightened and
concise.P S S Thanks Donald, you're great!

Cheer up Gramps things will get back to normal on Tuesday. Got the 3 day weekend to expound on social historical matters and to forget that many Europeans including the English as well as Australians and Canadians who tune in regulary can be insulted by posts.

oldtimer-------

chill dude! some folks scroll differently, and some don't scroll at all.
don't assume anything. the dichotomy here is more than most think. patience is the key to commodities, AND this url. by the way, gold is
a commodity tam bien'.

cherokee!; ) dec gold is poised, are you ready for the ride? ( jojo gunne )
ride,ride,ride--------------

WELL, now we will find out if Unions do indeed represent the workers of
the USofA. This government action should draw all the Union organizers
into the State of Wisconsin, maybe even the Teamsters. Wisconsin will
end up the most unionized State in the USofA. One Big State Union, eh!
( Or is that, the State of the Union ) : ) : ) : )

Sunday, August 31, 1997

Wisconsin prepares to replace welfare with work

MADISON, Wis. ( AP ) -- After leading the nation in welfare reform for a decade, Wisconsin is taking the final step. As of Labor Day, everybody works.

President Clinton has since agreed, calling it "one of the boldest, most revolutionary welfare reform plans in the country."
http://www.canoe.ca/News/aug31_wisconsin.html

Puetz - The only problem that we all have in this forum is that we all have the same sentiment. Therefore it is very important that someone challenge us on our thinking and keep us on our toes! That is why I like free speech ( notice I spelled it right this time ) . Actually I met another Kitcoite yesterday in person and we referred to this site as the Bear Cave. That is the only place where anyone who is bearish on the stock market and ( by Kitco definition, bullish on gold ) can find comfort.

Come to think of it, I may be one of the few Kitcoites who has actually been in a "bear cave", for real! The hair on the back of my neck still stands up! It is sort of like being in someone else's house when no one was home and realizing that you did not belong there and they were coming home ( true story, I swear upon my gold! ) .

I really don't know where gold is headed as far as magnitude. I do know , believe and feel that it is up. There are many interactive events that may dictate and for a short time, control, the price of gold, but none of them control the VALUE of gold.

Gold is a store of wealth. Throughout centuries, it has always been. It will continue to be.

Ron: Check the date range, I'm getting July 30 instead of August 30. An entire month's postings will fill up your hard drive! Also, I've lost the ability to change the text option twice this weekend. Once, I had to stop Netscape and restart it. Cookies aren't the only problem. Perhaps we are haunted?

Kitco seems to be loading fine for me. So far, anyway.

er----greatgramps.....errrp.

Goldbug23, Fundy and Panda, Wow, thanks for your posts. I thought I had maybe committed an unpardonable sin and was being banished from the site. ANYONE Geo Cole says the $ will have to tank before gold takes off. Does that mean the market will also crash or have a major correction below 7500 also? Does he have a probable time frame?

speed -- I believe the 'date' function is something that you select and then send off to Kitco, where upon Kitcos' return, you then bookmark the 'new' URL. BTW, are you the one with the Pentium II?

Petronius -- Very well said! However, please do not include me in the 'All'.
Princess Di will in all likelyhood follow Elvis into the category of the 'undead'! Amazing, ain't it?

To all:
Do you think that buying S.Francs is almost as good as buying gold? Considering they have more than 100% of the M1 in Gold.
The value has come down from 1.1 S.Franc per USD 6 Month ago to 1.5 S.Francs per USD today. Maybe there is an opportunity there...
Plus you get 3-4% in short term instruments.

Greatgramps: I'm selecting From: 8-31-97, To: 8-31-97, then clicking on SUBMIT ( as you suggested ) , and coming up with no postings. Apparently, this is not happening for everyone. But, for me, it's happening 80% of the time since friday.

Greatgramps -- The time schedule for the crash are many; any where from days to years. Watch the paper; Dollar, bonds, and stocks.

Panda, Speed: I use http://165.247.202.114/cgi-bin/comments/gold/display_short.cgi?SHOWTYPE=LONG&SHOWORDER=TOPORDER . The date range is set by default at Kitco, I believe. And it's Jul 30 - Sep 02 right now. Anyone else who is getting that date range, please hit your STOP button after you have all the posts you'd like to read, else we'll bring the server to its knees. Someone already emailed today saying that he can't get on at all ( I think his cache isn't big enough ) When Bart comes back, I'm sure he'll fix it.

Iez here dude....chillin......

Greatgramps -- By definition, for gold to take off under these conditions, the Dollar will have to tank. Whither the markets???? If the Dollar tanks, bonds down and stocks down. The only problem that I see is that the market internals aren't weak. The big blue chips are getting hit, but the majority of the market looks O.K. The Mid-Caps seem to be doing O.K. Then again, there's the flock of birds analogy. The flock can turn on a dime for no apparent reason. So it is with human psychology! Welcome to the worlds biggest casino! :- ) )

It's been a 'long' day laboring on the house, that's what you're supposed to do on labor day weekend, right? :- (

Good night all.

Ron -- My date settings run from August 31, 1997 to September 02, 1997. See below..


http://www.kitco.com/cgi-bin/comments/gold/comments.cgi?COMMAND=ENTERCOMMENT&SHOWORDER=TOPORDER&SHOWTYPE=MEDIUM&DISPGRAPH=NOGRAPH&MONTHFROM=Aug&DAYFROM=31&YEARFROM=97&MONTHTO=Sep&DAYTO=02&YEARTO=97

Nikkei 225 down 117.01 ( 0.64% ) and Hang Seng down 88.51 ( 0.63% ) with most of the losses comming in the past half hour....

PANDA -

Thanks for mentioning the STOP button. Until now, I thought the only way to keep from getting the whole day's worth of dialogue every time you hit the reload button was to disconnect. I always kept the STOP button hidden under the connect time window. Although your info wasn't directed to me, I appreciate it and know that it will take just a tad of pressure off the server.

I would like you all to know I admire this educated forum. Time will
prove all of you correct. I offer this bit of whimsy as my intro to your
group.
Q: What do you call a drug ring in Dallas?
A: A huddle.
Q: Four Dallas Cowboys in a car. Who's driving?
A: The Police
Q; Why can't wide receiver Michael Irvin get into a huddle on the field
anymore?
A: It's a parole violation to associate with known felons.

The Chicago Bears reportedly are trying to sign Michael Irvin.
They got rid of the FRIG so now they want a COKE MACHINE

Did you hear the Dallas Cowboys adopted a new HONOR SYSTEM ?
Yes, your HONOR, no your HONOR

Did you hear who's the new Cowboys defensive coordinator?
Johnny Cochran.
Q: How do the Dallas Cowboys spend their first week at training camp?
A: Studying the Miranda Rights.

Can't be all Kitco's problem. I keep getting Aug 31 to Sept 2. So far nothing for Sept 1 or 2 but it may be minutes away

Eldorado Your days and months forecast is encouraging, but the years is disturbing, both on account of my age, and the fact that I am holding Dec XAU call options. So I hope something happens to kick it up enough before then so I can make some on the options.

Nikkei 225 down 177.81........$