Nikkei 225 down 193.22 ( 1.06% ) Taiwan down 256.95 ( 2.63% ) ....they ain't goin in the right direction...nite all....peace..

To Ted:
Were can I check the value of the Nikkei?
Thanks

GreatGramps -- They are not my forcasts. As Panda says, it's a great Casino. I say learn all you can of the 'signs' and place your bets. But the paper markets are going to have to be having some 'difficulties', and the gold stocks should be having high volume up days to get off the ground. Currently, they have very little volume. That's bearish! There is much to be said for a final downturn in gold. Might be a fair sized one too. But who knows the things that can transpire in the course of a posting. When it all finally comes together though, I'm thinking a Tsunami type of move. Happy hunting!

"I place economy among the first and most important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt."
-Thomas Jefferson-

Why should you care? Because your future is at risk! Wonder why we can't send anyone back to the moon? Why support for schools is drying up? Why there are no more big public works projects? Or why big corporations are about to take over national parks and other services? Support for highways, conservation, police - all are dwindling, and You ain't seen
nothin' yet!

The recent "bipartisan budget agreement" makes good political theater. It will help some politicians keep their jobs. It won't stop our slide into oblivion.

http://www.europa.com/~blugene/deficit/debt.html

Let me say one thing more. I am concerned that my writing may give comfort to the militia hot-heads. That is in no way my intent. I believe in our country, but I fear the direction in which it is going.

I believe that the silent majority tends to sit on its collective hands and lets things happen. I cannot understand why we let corruption continue unchecked in government.

Someone in Congress commits a crime and gets to resign with no further action taken, or at most a light slap on the wrist. Public officials ought to be held to a higher standard, not just the opposite.

A low level purchasing agent of the government can be fired for accepting a minor gift from a potential contractor. That the way it should be all the way up to the President.
http://nationaldebt.com/clintons_plan_off_budget_debt.html

One of my favorite MJ truths is #31: All money is imaginary and its volume can not be measured.

On the death of Lady Di ( I havent considered her as a princess since the separation ) the women of the world are heartbroken. My wife is practically in tears along with all of her friends/relatives etc. Seems the Dream is over. Phone calls after phone calls ( probably going on all over the world ) . No dashing young prince on a white horse is gonna save them now. I just hope that my fears of this turing into another 'OJ' type of ordeal do not materialize. Could be a psychological turning point though...

I would like to add to Prechters short skirt analysis. How about the length of womens hair? Can it get any shorter?

Nick, at your 17:41, seems like if you got your wish all you would have on kitco left would be your own singular post: ) As for the occassional full news post, set to short or medium length, just scroll through if not interested. Now leave our cub reporters alone!

To-Mex
Here is one place you can try; http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets

Bastard son of Hepcat: You had me rolling in laughter with your Dallas Cowboy jokes. I used to be a great Cowboy fan back in the days of Roger Staubach and Tom Landry. Things have sort of changed since then, as you pointed out so well in your jokes.

Earl, here is a cheapy for you for those pesky moles, though it is hearsay and not personal experience. Wrigley's juicy fruit gum in their tunnels/holes. Reportedly, the little buggers love the stuff BUT cannot digest it, terminal belly-ache.

Hong Kong, -141.04 ( -1.00% )
Japan, -310.13 ( -1.70% )
Taiwan -251.48 ( -2.58% )
I'm Glad to see India up ( +23.17, +60% ) with there positive change toward Gold. By the way ( Globex ) S&P500 -15.

Your posts I must agree with. I despair of the public opinion nowadays which seems so jaded since watergate et al. Petronious has some excellent points ( my regrets though, to our UK friends ) , it seems that most people in the USA live life vicariously via celebrities of all kinds, TV shows, Movie heroes, without ever getting off their TV easy chairs. Perhaps we are become like Rome, keeping the masses distracted and happy with bread and circuses while the governors feed their various immoralities from the largesse of the public trough. The older generations were always griping about the government and for the most part were well aware of governments greedy predilictions. The younger generation seems mostly jaded and has dropped that torch. Goverment can do what it & ( ) * well pleases with hardly a wimper or interest. Perhaps that is only from my own limited view, I hope so. In any case, it seems that I would trade those past "scoundrels" gladly for our current ones.

India market up .60%
Roebear-You are right, juicy fruit gum does work.

Arden ( 21:17 ) : Thanks for taking up the cudgel. Your voice, offering wise counsel was sorely needed.

Roebear, Stalder: Thanks. I'll give it a try. A friend, locally, suggested the same thing. If nothing else maybe it will stick to their dental work. Eh??? ...... The fire ants down the mole hole still has some appeal. .... : )

The youth have dropped the torch, and the public that you reference as:
"despair of public opinion" also have given way to the *experts*.

The reality is the public just don't give a damn, they see no reason to
care. Much evidence suggests that money talks, and BS walks.

The public via, the school, and TV, Radio, movies, forever shows that
"Good guy's finish last" unless, it is presented by Disneyland.
They see the War on Drugs as so much BS, a war on Debt is also considered
BS. Soooo, they watch TV, and drink beer, and watch sports, to that
sector of the public, such, is the real world.

This economic crash is about to add huge numbers to the informed public.
These new concerned public, will be asking the question, " why were we
given such lies." "Why were we forced into economic slavery, we trusted
you experts." This public will be mad as hell, the dream will be dead.

I just hope, that the leadership that will surface from this crash, will
not drive our country's into a world wide war.
That is my take on the present madness, Thanks, take care.

I finally made it on here! This news item is from the L.A. Times. Looks very damaging for Clinton. http://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/NATION/topstory.html

6 PAK: Your 23:18. Wisconsin isn't known as a Progressive state fer nuttin. They are even trying school vouchers but the teachers union is of course fighting that tooth and nail. Most Blacks in Milwaukee love them I have read.

Per DBC at 2:55 ET Hang Seng -3.7%, Indo -4.8%, Phillipines -2.3%, Tawain -3.3%. Still not looking good. Cannot find reliable gold price!

Here is an update on the Nekkei close below 18,000 today. http://cnnfn.com/markets/bridge/1105.1.html

Here is what is going to happen when everyone tries to get out of the share pool at the same time!!!

Here is what is going to happen when everyone tries to get out of the share pool at the same time!!!

http://www.abc.net.au/ra/newsrael/rael-1sep1997-29.htm

A bear has been sighted and the trail closed!!!

http://www.abc.net.au/ra/newsrael/rael-1sep1997-29.htm

Bear sighting !! Trail closed!! http://canoe2.canoe.ca/News/aug31_bear.html

I'll get the hang of this yet. Japan is "letting!? http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/JAPAN-DOLLAR.html the dollar stay high.

Asian stock markets down; Europw up modestly; Joberg gold index down 0.8%. Looks like downward pressure on gold stocks is intensifying as expected.

Oldmannnnnn, get a life. You suck bucketloads. You are probably the
arms dealer that has been going out of their way to silence the
Princess of Wales. I got one message for you: This JEDI has just put
your name in his book.
Your wife is probably the woman so unhappy with you and her life
that she buys glossy mags so she can live in a montage of fantasy
where she feels people like the Princess are her freinds because
she can identify with generous and careing people like the last
Princess of Wales.
Prepare you weakling.

Tort hasn't forgotten y'all, he's just too busy.

Thought I'd throw one at you in the interim.


I think you folks will especially appreciate this:

Travel Expenses

A businessman walked into a New York City bank and asked for the loan
officer. He said he was going to Europe on business for two weeks and
needed to borrow $5,000.

The loan officer said the bank would need some security for such a
loan. The business man then handed over the keys to a Rolls Royce that
was parked on the street in front of the bank. Everything checked out
and the loan officer accepted the car as collateral for the loan. An
employee then drove the Rolls into the bank's underground garage and
parked it there.

Two weeks later the businessman returned, repaid the $5,000 and the
interest which came to $15.41. The loan officer said, "We do appreciate
your business and this transaction has worked out very nicely, but we
are a bit puzzled. While you were away we checked and found that you
are a multimillionaire. What puzzles us is why you would bother to
borrow $5,000?"

The business man replied: "Where else in New York City can I park my
car for 2 weeks for 15 bucks?"

Hongkong has taken as bashing, down 5.2%. Check this at
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u "scroll down a bit"

Analysis of how stocks got this high and why they won't stay there.
"If 3M were a house or an ingot of gold"
http://www.msnbc.com/news/103296.asp#BODY

Check this site for Gold quotes-- http://www.oanda.com/cgi-bin/ncc --Not sure how often it's updated.

Hong Kong official plays down market fall.
http://www.msnbc.com/news/107025.asp

Analysis of future of Hong Kong. "Hong Kong would fail even if British rule lasted another 20 years" and "Financial transactions will increasingly be diverted from HK to other cities"
http://www.scmp.com/1997/views/marcfaber.html

"Ugly deflation is sneaking up behind us" Great article: don't miss this one ( written 1/1/96 )
http://www.tice.com/articles/deflatn.htm

ROEBEAR: This post is for you.
http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/llyfr.html

"Gold--The Last Four Bottoms--And a Fifth?
This article with charts is well worth bookmarking and studying in detail .
http://www.the-privateer.com/g-bottom/g-bottom.html

Nikkei closes below 18,000. Yen plunges against dollar.
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/Even.html

Bullion price little changed, but Joberg now off 1%. Very sick action.



Hong Kong gold ends shade up in quiet trade

HONG KONG, Sept 1 ( Reuter ) - Hong Kong spot gold ended slightly higher compared to its previous New York close on light
physical buying in dull trade, dealers said.

Bullion ended at US$324.20/324.70 on Monday compared to New York's previous close at US$323.90/324.40 on Friday.

Trading was confined to approximately US$324.20-324.50 during the day, a trader said, adding the market was ``absolutely
quiet.''

``We saw a bit of local physical buying,'' a dealer for an international bank said.

He predicted prices would range between US$320-328 for the short term. He said a falling stock market could result in
safe-haven buying of gold.

Another dealer said the market probably would not move until after the return of U.S. traders following Monday's Labor Day
holiday.

Local tael gold ended HK$1 up at HK$3,004.

The carry over charge at the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society was -3, down from its previous fix at +4.

So, so, surprised at the outpouring of emotional exuberance over just an ordinary, basically unproductive person who happened to marry a prince; what did she ever do that was so special? Who cares about ( what some might call ) an insignificant little twit! Who cares!? Royalty, "royal" people!! Ha, it is all BS!

Let's get back to talking about the gold market!

Prophetic Economist George S. Cole foresees a lackluster gold performance until greenback tanks. Once dollar turns south & short interest remains high, an explosive up move is a good bet:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/cole831.html

Greenback strong this morning. Very little chance of a crash in U.S. markets or a major gold reversal until the dollar bull ends.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY TORT!!!!....Asia down big time and still gold don't budge......U.S. Dollar still THE safe haven .....but will THAT last???

Puetz, Re your post last night about points of view. My hat's off to you.

Panda: No pentium II here, just sent one kid to college, so no upgrades for a long while!

Asian markets got creamed again, but European markets are up across the board. Gold stubbornly refuses to move out of a very tight range. Somebody give it a push!

Death be not proud... Americans who are old enough remember the 1963 Kennedy assassination. We remember the place where we heard the news, what we were doing and the reactions of the people around us. It didn't matter what party we ( or our parents ) supported or what we thought about the man personally. It was a defining moment in history, a bookmark in our memory. I think that the same thing will be true of the Princess Di tragedy. The Brits who are old enough will remember this day in great detail 10, 20 and 30 years from now. The House of Windsor mourns their loss and people of good will send sympathy. I am reminded of the words of John Donne:

No man is an island entire of itself; every man is a piece of the Continent, a part of the main. . . . Any man's death diminishes me because I am involved in Mankind; and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.

John Donne ( c. 1572-1631 ) , English divine and metaphysical poet. Devotions Upon Emergent Occasions, Meditation 17 ( 1624 ) .

HAPPY BIRTHDAY ( this is gettin weird ) Max! Max is the author of the Skeptical Investor...READ IT...and learn..
http://www.chebucto.ns.ca/~an388/aug97.html

A discussion of Credit Card Debt, why it is bad, why tighter credit standards will cause more bankruptcy filings. Impact on the economy. Written 2/6/96 and even more valid today.
http://www.tice.com/reports/cdebt.htm

A discussion of Credit Card Debt, why it is bad, why tighter credit standards will cause more bankruptcy filings. Impact on the economy. Written 2/6/96 and even more valid today.

"THE COMING COMPETING CURRENCY DEVALUATIONS" - Dines reviews the spate of currency devaluations in Far-East. He aptly exposes Central Bank folly of increasing rates to defend their currency:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines830.html

slam the system, slam the monarchy, they deserve it.
for an individual who was part of this odious group,
she shone with an aura that touched those whom were
shunned and castigated by the supposed blue-bloods.
she deserves credit and respect for taking another
path, and tirelessly giving what the others had not
to give. herself....

kick somewhere else, lest you be the benefactor of
a fell wind.

where's ww, he needs a swift kick tam bien'.

Mornin Cherokee....sender of "smoke signals",that are clearly read...even from my distant perch.....live for the day...for tomorrow we may be $#@&^%$...BBL....looks like neighbor Eddie stumbling across my front yard towards the house...

Hey Bart,It's Tort's birthday and he can't post on Kitco...What the hell gives????....and no Tort....ya didn't offend me by that....Iez a pretty JADED dude...now BBL.....

Brazil down 172 ( 1.62% ) , Mexico down 141 ( 2.94% ) Joberg down 11 ( 1.04% )

With Churchillian clarity & logic Guest Guru Milhouse analyzes Alan Greenspans "secret weapon to ensure economy doesnt dive. M-3 accelerated growth is keystone to higher GOLD prices:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse831.html

S&P - The S&P is setting up a pattern similar to 1987, see chart. Now is not the time to
short the market, wait for the first big rally back, should start Tuesday. A 62%
retracement similar to 1987 would set an objective of 940 basis September. In 1987 the
time between the Aug. high and the Oct. high was 27 market days. 27 market days
measured from the Aug. 7 high this year is 9/16, a date already talked about. The six
weeks after 9/16 should be downers. If we don't make a new market high in the next two
weeks we won't until after the next 4 year cycle low in the fall of 1998. ( James
Flannagan: Past Present Futures - The two most bearish months of the decade Sept & Oct
of the seventh year. In the 210 year history of the N.Y. Stock Exchange there has never
been a bull market top between October of the 7th year and October of the 8th year. ) In
terms of percentages I doubt if there will be a crash ( 45% in 87, SPZ ) in terms of points
it may appear crash like, a 500 point drop in the Dow today is not the same as 1987.

Speed @ 08:15 -- Careful about that 'push', there could be a cliff out there somewhere! :- ) )

JRL -- The ESC key on your keyboard should also function as a 'stop' button.

Oleman
You seem to be one heck of a trader. I ALWAYS appreciate your perspective when it refers to markets.

However, you do have a rather narrow minded view of life and its inhabitants, as well as a definite lack of compassion for the struggles of others. I would venture an astrological guess that given your myopic view of life, you are probably a fixed sign, and given the vehemence of your attacks probably a Scorpio. Just like its difficult for you to be other than you are, others may find it difficult to be other than who they are. Learn how to be as flexible with the inhabitants of life as you are with markets. You might find you will be happier for it!

Thanks again Donald, History of Money from Ancient... is on its way. What a wonderful world we live in, ( in some ways ) thanks to your site I can read it while I await arrival! Also Money and Government in the Roman Empire by Richard Duncan-Jones is on order, will let you know if worthwhile ( $! ) . Hobson and Burns, still looking. Makes me wanna get in book collecting. BTW, had a rare Ruark edition ( now+$200 ) , lent it to a friend and his dog ate the cover off. ARGH!

Curious Lurker must be like the Klintoons administration - they are soooo compassionate. These are the "emotional" people, the "feelings" people, the "energies" and "aura" people. Clear judgments based on fact and evidence? No, it is all based on "feelings."

And they are so "preachy" ( that's the annoying part ) , so willing to instruct others on how to live happy lives. Because, of course, they are right! Their "feelings" tell them so.

Curious Lurker
You seem to be one heck of a Lurker. I ALWAYS appreciate your perspective when it refers to Kitco members. However, you do have a rather narrow minded view of life and its inhabitants, as well as a definite lack of acceptance ideas of others. I would venture an astrological guess that given your myopic view of life, you are probably a fixed sign, and given the vehemence of your attacks probably a Libra. Just like its difficult for you to be other than you are, others may find it difficult to be other than who they are. Learn how to be as flexible with the inhabitants of life as you are with markets. You might find you will be happier for it!

The death of a Princess has brought Kitco to a boil once again. I suggest while our views all play a part in the market understanding, vitriolic, personal attacks serve no purpose to that understanding. Emotions after all tend to get us in at tops and out at bottoms. To speak aphoristically, investing/trading is like revenge, a dish best served cold. And the best revenge is SUCCESS. Let us focus on succeeding through our mutual sharing, and understand that our differences, albeit irritating, are all part of the game. Chill out.

ROEBEAR: That site I posted for you is incredible. I never knew it was there until I went looking for information about the book. Thanks for asking the question.

Libertarian- sets standards for himself
Liberal- sets standards for others

Jojo, Just to set the record straight - Feelings don't tell you if you're right, but they tell you what it's important to be right about. If you don't care ( have feelings ) about anything, you can't care about being right about anything. Oh shucks I forgot, philosophy is only for freshmen.

Gee Whiz, I hate to be touchy feely, but are we on the same wavelength or what!: ) )

VRONSKY: Just in case you missed my post for Roebear. This site has an enormous amount of information about money and its impact on history. You might want to include it in your "History of Gold" page.
http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/llyfr.html

That's what my favorite prof always used to say, ask the right questions! He didn't say I'd spend the rest of my life looking for the right answers!: ) Our serendipity is how it is supposed to work here is it not!? I must go, the wife has appeared at the office door with a large butcher knife, hopefully that is for the cookout and not me, BBL ( I hope ) .

Ted, thanks for the birthday greetings. Its hell to be getting old but then I am still above room temperature so I have something to cheer about. I think what we are seeing in the markets is the teetering which occurs before the market drops for all its worth. A little up, a little down, back and forth a few times and then down big time--that's how I see its going to be. I received my annual report from Van Eck gold fund which is pretty sorry. They are predicting continued weakness in the metals and gold stocks and their philosophys is to buy on the dips. By the way Bastard Son and Reify, great jokes this morning--so good in fact that I will forbear posting anything at this time.

Tort: Happy Birthday! Upon turning fifty Bridgette Bardot was asked how it felt to be getting old. She replied: "It sure beats the alternative"

Paris Stock Exchange UP 1.28% at close London Stock Exchange UP 1.13% Francfort Stock Exchange UP 2.15%

For readers following Diana's events : The car driver was drunk ! as stated by French police an hour ago.

TED & TORT: Two of the most popular posters at this site have birthdays right next to each other! Now, what do we all think the odds of THAT are? Astronomical, to say the least!!!
TO ALL: In honor of this rare and mystical confluence of blessed events, may I humbly request that a moratorium be placed on all vicious and vitriolic postings?
TED: I love your weather postings. Never having been to Cape Breton, I can only imagine the grandeur of your surroundings. Someday, when I come to vist, I'll know exactly what the weather will be like.
TORT: I love your jokes. As you know, I've tried in my own feeble way to emulate you from time to time, but to no avail. You are the undisputed master of humor at this site.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO YOU BOTH - with sincere wishes for many, many more years of health, wealth, and happiness! May ALL your investments go in exactly the right direction!!!

StradM, The odds of these two people sharing the same birthday is exactly 1-365. The odds of any two sharing get rather likely as the group grows in size. Things aren't always as unlikely as they seem - the bane of predictive models.

Strad Master, you have indeed made my day. Many thanks for your nice comments.

CARL: I know that. Gee, gimmie a break! I'm just being playful! Thanks for the info though.

Donald, I must say that it is a privilege being included in the same sentence with Bridgette Bardot. I must confess that I share her sentiments. The good, they die young, but the bad they keep on grinding out the years. Ouch, that arthritis, eets a flair'n up agin.

Re: Leaner Sun 21:06
The cheapest gold producing stock relative to net asset value/share that I know of is Claude Resources CRJ on the TSE. ( Be aware that I am an IA and both myself & my clients own a ton of this. As always do your own due diligence. )
In short:
-the average junior gold stock is trading 85% of NAV, crj is 46% - ie: nav $4.00, friday close 1.85
-no debt
-good management - started prodcution in 1991
-reasonable business plan to move production from 50,000oz/year to 200,000oz/year over the next 4 years in Saskatchewan, Canada
-passive oil & gas royalties cover admin expenses
-US$220 cash cost
-they actually are currently operating at a profit!
-the only major firm currently covering crj is Wood Gundy ( part of why it trades at a huge discount ) - they have a $4.50 one year target just to bring it with the peer group
-the website www.clauderesources.com is very good & includes a July 24,97 analyst report

Sorry StradM, I often come down with a recurring case of "taking things too seriously".

STRAD: How was the concert? Did you get to meet RJ and any others? Were they sufficiently embarrassed by their dress. Were you?

Strad Master ( 11:37 ) Thankx for the kind comments....come and visit any time! 72 degrees with mostly overcast sky....just saw two Dolphins from about twenty feet away while in the kayak....Tort: enjoy your lunch and for god sakes,run up the bill,if others are payin...

Why don't the jokers, weather forcasters, would-be travellers and their admirers start there own IRC site at no cost to themselves and at less cost to the rest of us.

You MUST check Stephen Roach's comments from Morgan Stanley. Excellent couple of paragraphs about Asian meltdown etc......
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970902/business/business1.html

If you really want to take a flyer on a gold stock - I've been following Vanderbilt Gold for about ten years. It was up into the six dollar range back then. The company went through pure hell - the CEO put lots of his personal funds into it and then died. There were environmental problems. I expected to read its obituary. But, somehow it hung in there. A week ago they announced that they're in production and their cost per ounce is on the low end of the spectrum. It's been trading recently as low as eight cents per share. It just bounced to 13 cents. Nobody pays any attention to it. I don't want to tout any stocks here, so if you're interested, dig around for more information. It trades on NASDAQ under the symbol VAGO.

Australia's Rserve Bank defends itself on recent gold sales. If it could!
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970902/business/business8.html

Brazil down 478 ( 4.51% ) ( My previous post on Mexico was in error. They appear to be closed today and I posted the Friday close rather than a today quote )

CARL: That's OK. It just points up one of the inherent difficulties of the internet and posting. Tone of voice is a very important component of understanding communications.
In light of that, in honor of Tort and Ted's confluent birthdays I propose that we temporarily suspend the space/time continuum. Not only would that make it a REAL miracle that Ted and Tort are born close togehter but it would have the added benefit of instantly driving the price of gold to $10,000,000 per ounce. Not bad, eh? What do y'all say?

APH: Let me second your opinion that this is not the time to short the market. Strong rally likely to commence Tuesday after today's good gains in European stocks and the dollar. Gold and gold stocks probably will decline further as the market rallies back to the 8000 area. But big reversals due around mid-month

Brazil claims its currency is 15-20% overvalued.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/01/y0004_z00_2.html

GEORGE COLE: I think you may be right about Dow pick up. The DJ Utilities index, is just going sideways, while the DJ Industrial Index falls. This divergence cannot last for too much longer. However, keep
a good eye on the Asian "stir fry" effect.

NICK/LA: Well, what DO you want on a chat line??? We are all ears.
GOOD NIGHT!!!!!

STRAD MASTER: You have GOLDEN touch on that Strad my friend. Thoroughly enjoyed the hour. I have a great tape of it and would be happy to send you a copy if you do not have one. Also, if you have not seen the lead article in Aug.31 Los Angeles Times Magazine do not miss it. On a couple who make violins in Costa Mesa, CA. ( Bart,note GOLDEN in first line ;- )

TED and TORT....You guys must really be special to share a birth week with me....Mine was the 27th.....And it was one of those with a zero on the end....HAPPY BIRTHDAY guys !!!!!!!!!!!

MIKE SHELLER: You can tell from my mood that the concert went very well. Standing ovation! Indeed, RJ was there - dressed just right, too! Another lurker came as well. It's so funny...in retrospect I realized that I never got their real names. Did anyone get to hear it on the radio? Feel free to post a music review. Where were you EB? Thanks, Mike, for asking.

NAILZ: That does it! Now we HAVE to suspend the space/time continuum for sure! HAPPY BIRTHDAY!

GOLDBUG23: Thanks for the kind comments. So glad you enjoyed it. They'll give me good DAT recorded right from the source. I read the article and know those people well. In fact the daughter mentioned in the article was one of my students this summer in Idyllwild. BTW, I was playing the copy yesterday!

Has anyone heard anything about possible Russian Atomic bomb test detected last week? You would think this would be BIG news.

Belated happy birthday wishes to Nailz....Don't forget occasional poster Max ( author of Skeptical Investor ) it's his birthday today too...his site ( again ) is: http://www.chebucto.ns.ca/~an388/aug97.html

GSC: If you are expecting big reversals around mid month, what do you see as the catalyst?

STRAD and TED......Strad..glad your concert went well and thanks for the birthday wishes....TED...Thanks for the birthday wishes..Posted one for you on metal detectors a couple of days back...Did you see that one ???

Diana driver was drunk. And some of the Papparazi that night were veteran newsmen http://www.drudgereport.com/1.htm

EARL, check yer mail, sent mail to you last week , then i went away, it came back , stupiid me used wrong address , sorry man.
Kev

Tort - Happy birthday. And good response to Dick, er, uh, Nick in LA-LA-Land.

Hey Dick, I mean Nick: I have never seen anyone try to sell a gun on this group... I would've been the first to try to buy it! There has been an occasional "free exchange of information" on guns here, but it is really rare. Gee, freely exchanging information - what a concept.
You must be one of those media-control-advocating, bleeding heart liberal, anti-gun, new world order, Klinton-loving ,Democraps. May you be Ruby-Ridged, and Rodney Kinged....

SILVERBEAR: The "Seismic Event" was posted here. The Russians deny it was a test. They didn't say there was an accident. What seismic event?

SHEK: As a Libertarian of long standing love your 11:04. More truth than poetry . NICK: Lighten up, you can always skip what you do not find of interest, like the rest of us.

Eldo
The Canadians proved how profitable platinum could be. The price goes up, the price of the coins will go up, demand would probably increase. The USM will be able to buy what it needs from the open market.


As for gold, from CNN London Bridge News:

Analysts at Merrill Lynch believe that "the upside is very limited, no matter how wonderful physical demand is." Extra supplies would be coming from central bank sales, gold loans and producer selling, the company said in its monthly precious metals review.

"But we will not see a bull market again, in our strongly held opinion, until we see at least 300 to 400 tonnes of mine capacity close permanently. That will take a very long time indeed to happen," Merrill Lynch said.

Donald ( @Home ) : REF Your VRONSKY: In case you missed post for Roebear - You will find Prof. Davies posting at GOLD-EAGLE OF EQUAL IMPORTANCE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/sovereignty.html

Lurker: Catalyst not necessary for market to start down again in mid-September. Read APH post today comparing the action today and the summer of 1987.

In fact, the most worrisome market declines are those that occur for no apparent reason. But if there is a catalyst, it probably will be some big players ( George Soros? ) concluding the dollar bull cannot be sustained much longer as more of our trading partners conclude it has risen too far.

Goldbug23: Thanks

Stradmeister--Here is a classical music site with great links. http://www.classical.net/music/frames/index.html Off to call my Baroquer now to. Trying to piccolo in this market is difficult.

RJ: Merrill Lhynchyou has been negative on gold for as long as I can remember, and that is one long time, so what else is new. After all, they are part of the "establishment." I agree with you on Platinum. So - you really did hear Strad. Great!

AURIC: Playing a piccolo in this market - love it - My Dad played the piccolo and flute etc. and he was one poor market player. Fortunately, I have followed in my mother's footsteps. ( Sorry Nick - but I am heavy in the golds at the moment! )

VRONSKY: Er, um, well, I uh, You see Vronsky, it's like this.....

Nailz and gunrunner--thanks for the birthday greetings. Nailz, its a pleasure to be a fellow Virgoite with you and Ted. Probably Brigette Bardot was also a Virgo; no, that would be a stretch. Well I'm off to lunch to see if I can't, on the advise of Ted, reach deep into the pocket of my friends for dessert and all the trimmings. Burp!!

Hey Puetz, we finally found something to agree on! Namely, that all should be allowed free speech and exchange of ideas. Never have I remotely suggested otherwise ( Though many have done so toward my posts ) . IMNTBHO, people who sell newsletters, advive, & books and such, should never be censored or silenced. Au contrair, their track record, historical accuracy, etc etc should be intensely scrutinized and held up to the light of truth, the test of time, and the analysis of scientific method. In this way,we can see who are the lunatics, and who deserves to be listened to. And as long as I'm generously agreeing with you, I also agree that only a fool would leverage their position in the market through borrowing etc. In fact, only a fool would leverage their position period! ( You know, like buying PUT options on the S & P 500 )

Oh yes Puetz, I also saw the post from "Bastard Son of Hepcat" on the Dallas Cowboys. WHile on the one hand it was amusing, I find myself concerned at this drop in respect for "America's team" I mean, since "America's team" is now falling into disrepute, could this not be yet another ominous sign that America herself will soon fall, market crash is looming, and we should head for the hills before the Lunar eclispe? Just wondering..Hey, I'm still willing to lay you 2 to 1 odds on that "70% probable" market crash my Free Speech loving friend!!

Hey Nick, re your 12:24, thank you for informing us that Bart Kitner has gone on vacation and left you in full charge of the site. All others re your free speech rhetoric. How come the same folks who applaud other folks free speech postings, are the very same posters who continually demand censorship and squelching of those whose opnions do not agree with their own? Personally, I think a good debate is the best way to get facts and ideas on the table. Even if the dialogue becomes heated, vitriolic, acerbic, etc. Hasn't anyone ever seen "Firing Line" , or "Crossfire" et al?

From what I've gathered, from here and other sites, it would seem that other nations have a love/hate relationship with a strong dollar. Utimately, I beleive they will do what is in their best interest. BUT I DON'T KNOW WHAT THAT IS! Will they keep the dollar strong or drive it down? Right now, it seems to me they have a stronger motive to support the dollar. Someone please present a case for a falling dollar.

LURKINGgBUG: Regarding your recent post to Puetz. While your idea of scrutinizing market newsletter writers track records is, on the face of it, a sound and noble one, I think it is a very problematic thing to do in reality, though. The success and failure of various timers seems to wax and wane with the varagies of the market itself. Some are hot for awhile ( meaning a few years ) and then their recommendations tend to go bad and someone else comes to the fore. Robert Prechter is a prime example of that. He was the #1 timer for awhile - the absolute darling of Wall Street - when his predictions were hitting right big-time. Then he got out of sync with the market and someone else replaced him. His time may come again. If markets could be quantified and held to a strict sense of order then there wouldn't be so many diverse opinions out there. Everyone would make tons of money and that would be that. So, it is only the iconoclast who looks at the data with fresh eyes who has a chance of making the great call that no one else expects. Sadly, sometimes those iconoclasts are wrong for awhile before their big break comes. The bottom line is that there isn't just one purely scientific way of playing the markets. I think, more than anything else, that is what upsets you so much. You like order and stability. I do to, but I have made peace with the chaos inherent in the markets and am willing to search for a kernel of iconoclastic thinking to point me in the next direction. Your thoughts?

Puetz, Sheller, and all other technical analysts relying on advanced sophisticated predicitive models factoring in important market indicators such as the upcoming Lunar Eclipse, I'm still waiting for your LONG view on that very imporant upcoming Y2K May event, the alignment of the planets. Surely this will have a major impact on Gold and the Equity markets. Also, fascinated to hear what direction you believe Gold and the DOW will take tomorrow AM and for the upcoming week. ( LGB, interested in Smoke, Mirrors, & Witchcraft for the masses...@ Blood on the Moon )

If Europeans are serious about a strong Euro, they would do well to keep their gold. Gold dumping and a strong Euro are like fire and water -- they don't mix.

Dini says EMU delay preferable to soft euro -radio

BONN, Sept 1 ( Reuter ) - Italy's Foreign Minister Lamberto Dini said European economic and monetary union ( EMU ) should be
postponed by a year if several countries flunk the strict entry Maastricht criteria in 1997, German radio said on Monday.

Dini said in an interview to be broadcast on Tuesday morning that Europe's planned single currency, to be named the euro,
should be as strong and stable as the mark. A text of the interview was released in advance.

``I have always said that the criteria must be fulfilled substantially. Otherwise we will give the impression that we are creating a
currency zone and a new currency which is not strong,'' Dini was quoted as saying.

``But it must be as strong as the mark and just as stable...If the results of several countries for economic reasons in 1997 diverge
considerably from the criteria set down in the Maastricht treaty then a delay would be preferable.''

Dini said in the interview that some countries including Italy, Germany and France were having difficulty fulfilling the criteria.

European Union countries aiming to join the planned 1999 launch of EMU are required to keep their budget deficits and public
borrowing under tight control before and after the start of the new currency.

I agree with virtually everything you said. No analysts and no predictive model will ever be 100%. I think my annoyance with Puetz, other Gloom and Doomers similar to Puetz, and their religous following, is that they have been wrong so often for so long, that they truly have caused a lot of harm to a lot of unsophisticated pocketbooks. Personally, I respect Bob Brinker's advice, and others of his ilk. Analysts who truly know their markets and change are willing to be flexible as economic conditions change. Puetz and his ilk, latch onto one theme and than find every scrap of information they can to support that theme. IMNTBHO, the better approach is to always take an objective fresh look at ALL the factors in the market, historical and current, INCLUDING The factors which indicate that PAST model indicators are no longer reliable. ( Such as similarities, or lack thereof to 1929 ) . I think 5 to 10 years is a pretty good indicator of how well a Prognosticators methodology works overall.

Strad Master: Glad to hear your concert went well.....Nailz: Yeah, I caught that post on the metal detector...thankx!....Nick: 73 degrees and overcast...water temp. @ 70 degrees...

LURKINGgBUG: I agree somewhat but my big question is why would indicators that had previoulsy been useful for decades suddenly become inoperative pirely by the fiat of people like Bob Brinker and others of his ilk who spout the accepted party line propaganda. Admittedly, a contrarian needs to be doubly skeptical of the data but at the same time ( IMO ) Bob Brinker will just as surely lead lots of unsuspecting investors down the tubes one day. Don't forget the similar statements being bandied about in 1929 about how all the indicators no longer hold true and how the paradigm has forever changed. People don't change - and an unwillingness to learn from the past mistakes of history can be just as fatal a disease as premature contrarianism.

Steve - Perth: Thanks for the article...but I don't accept the excuse that the sale by the RBA only amounted to a $5 drop in gold price - from $322 - $317. It was the "announcement" that dropped the gold price from $340 to $320 range and RBA is responsible for this decline in trading range as Australia, as you know, is the world's 3rd largest gold producer. What makes the RBA affair worse is best quoted from the article:

" The gold sales brought corporate governance issues to a head for the Reserve [Reserve Bank of Australia], as one of its board members is WMC's managing director, Mr Hugh Morgan. WMC, one of Australia's largest goldminers, quadrupled its forward sales of gold after the Reserve board had approved the sales."

Cheers

The foreigners will dump dollars when it no longer suits their interests to hold US paper. This may be a result of better economic prospects with outside USA trade and x-USA trade partners that reduce the overall reliance on USA market demand ( Canada did this with Britain long ago by replacing "Commonwealth" trade preferences with US trade dominance and then NAFTA. ) A second trigger may be diversification into the proposed EURO. This may begin through acquiring a Euro proxy basket that includes DM, Sterling, FF, and Lira according to each nations expected Euro weight. The seocnd trigger may be inspired by a perception that it is better to diversify between America and Europe than to place ones eggs entirely in the FED-Wall Street basket that may be over-extended.

Cheers

Ahh but Brinker has repeatadly said that a meltdown could indeed occur under certain conditions, specifically on overload of margin investing and speculation. And he has warned that under those conditions he'd be advising investors to be "out". However, current conditions don't warrant such worries and there are some enormous differences in today's climate. Also of note, Brinker had the market a "hold" and "Dollar cost average" up through DOW 7400. Brinker rated the market a "Buy" at any level below 6700, and this was only about 3 months ago! Investors who heeded that advice made yet another in a series of spectacular gains by ignoring the "Gloom and Doomers". That was not an isolated "great call" on his part. He's been damned consistent in such genious calls. Now there's a guy I can respect, and he does PLENTY of historical TA, just does it better than most, and factors ALL market indicators in, not just those that fit some whacko theory he may feel like holding. Hey, remeber, I'm all for gold and silver's ultimate rise to glory, and a big fall in the moderately overpriced stock market. It'll happen in my lifetime, but not anytime soon.

LURKINGgBUG: Maybe you and he are right. Anyway, it's too late now.

The trend has changed.

Merryl Lynch HAS NOT taken in consideration the CURRENT HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENTS, currency turmoil, stock dumping and collateral effect which is underway and whose effects are just beginning to emerge.
Gold 'investment' purchases will increase, as US $ loses its allure and reality sets in.
I suggest that Merryl Lynch review 'gold has limited upside potential' is perhaps more right than wrong, with 'old trend'.
Their analysis are probably based on everyday events, such as yesterday gold demand, jewellery & investment and producer forward selling, CB threatened sales, and the 'negative' or bear market which gold has lanquished in the last 18 months.
It is historical events, which always makes 'experts' and 'gurus' bite the dust!
Go Gold

Bob: Your view of the dollar's decline is shared:

"By the end of the day, traders were looking more positively on the relative silence from Tokyo, reasoning that the government
had every opportunity today to express dissatisfaction with the falling yen.

Some analysts believe the market-savvy Sakakibara will wait until the trading market is overloaded with holding dollars before
making some bold proclamation designed to drive the dollar down. Sakakibara has in the past been able to incite swift, sharp
and often panicky moves in the yen market, both up and down. "

http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/bridge/700.1.html

All right. Here goes! You know that Homestake Jan.98 Call Option Strike price 15, priced @ 1.00 ( $100 ) ? Well I'M GOING FOR IT! LOTS OF IT! AND YOU CANT STOP ME! And, I am gonna do it first thing TOMORROW!!

GEORGE COLE: What do you base your premise that having gold in its reserve base is an essential element for the EMU if it is to be a strong currency when this is currently repudiated by Japan and other banks which have a relatively strong currency with a small percentage of gold as part of their reserve base. These countries have proven that it is the management of an economy and money supply which attributes strength to a currency, and not how much gold is in reserves. No amount of gold in the vaults of the EMU, or the USA for that matter, will protect the currency if fundamentals attributing to a strong currency are not met. If you disagree, then I would appreciate the reasons for your position.

Auric: If you are calm, then why are you shouting? : ) How many 500 point down days can the Hong Kong market tolerate? How low can the Nikkei drop before dollars are dumped? Any theories?

Has anyone else followed the specific scriptural prophecies of Daniel and Revelations? These prophecies predict a Revived Roman Empire consisting of 10 European nations which will rule the world. The current EU completed the 10 nation status in 1981.

According to prophecy, the AntiChrist will rise to power as the leader of this Revived Roman Empire. The "Mark of the Beast/666" will be an implanted microchip or binary coded mark on every person's forhead or hand. They won't be able to buy, sell, or trade without the UPC scannable mark. It's interesting that the prophets and John, and Jesus himself, made these specific prophecies. All of which may now be coming to pass.

There are many other interesting prophecies that have taken place in the past few decades. All are precursors to the last days preceding Armageddon according to prophecy. These prophecies include the final destruction of Israel as a nation, the disbursement of the Jews "throughout all nations", and then her rebirth in the last days preceeding the end times, ( Israel re-established as a Nation in 1947 ) .

Also predicted, an increase in climatic events ( Global warming, Hurricanes, floods, famines, damaging Earthquakes ) , a huge increase in knowledge and travel, ( exponentially increased in past 50 to 100 years ) , an increase in apostacy from the church, an increase in tensions in the middle East, signs in the heavens, and a number of other interesting current events.

If the prophecies are taken literally, the only sign yet to occur is the rebuilding of the Jewish temple in Jerusalem. If we see such a rebuilding begin, be sure that the end times have begun according to the prophetic timetable.

This is not meant to be an "End is Near" message. For those who believe in the prophecies, the second coming of Christ, will abort the destruction of mankind at Armageddon and establish a new world order.

Please reserve your flames until you study the actual prophecies in detail for yourselves. See how uncannily accurate they have been.

Keep these things in mind when reading the latest news on the EU. There may be more meaning to it than just the direction of world financial markets.

Simple Question: Did the market leaders during the dawn of the last new era pay dividends? Related Question: Can Intel maintain the breakneck speed of capital investment necessary to be out front and ever distribute anything meaningful to its shareholders at the same time? Microsoft?

Bulgaria cenbank cancels licenses of three banks

SOFIA, Sept 1 ( Reuter ) - The Bulgarian National Bank ( BNB ) said on Monday it revoked the banking licenses of three local
commercial banks in a bid to speed suits for their insolvency as part of stabilisation of the crumbling banking system.

``The licenses for banking operations of Elitbank AD, Businessbank AD and International Bank for Investment and
Development ( IBID ) were revoked due to their estabilished insolvency,'' the BNB said in a statement.

NONMERCY: Your last post disputing the Merrill Lynch gold analysis was right on the money. Merrill Lynch implicitly assume the ongoing secular bull in the dollar and other U.S. financial assets will just go on and on, keeping monetary demand for gold very depressed. If one accepts that assumption, their conclusion that the gold bear will persist until a lot of mines shut down makes sense.

But if the fundamental paradigm that has governed global financial markets for the past 15 years is changing as I maintain, then the Merrill Lynch conclusion couldn't be more wrong.

BTW, with a handle like nonmercy, who you plan to deny mercy to? Paperbugs I hope.

SPEED: I can answer part of your question. Japan itself says that if the Nikkei drops below 17,000 that the value of stocks held be Japanese banks as part of their capital requirements will put many banks out of business. They will not meet the standards that Japan and the BIS agreed to. It varies bank to bank but they are in serious trouble at 17,000.

He plans to have no mercy on us poor misguided "paperbugs" who have reaped 300 to 400% in phony "paper" profits, paid off our mortgages, bought new cars, purchased some hard assets, ( Including gold, silver & Platinum coins in my case ) and in general,lived it up on our "imaginary" gains. Ahh how I long for the good old days of Gold backed currency. The early 30's come to mind. Let's shift our "Paradigm" back to those fantastic days of plenty!!

P.S. Just tweaking you George, I DO have a lot more respect for you than for Puetz, at least you give some strong, broad based, fairly balanced technical analysis to back your calls. Now can you please tell me where Platinum is headed??

BOB: There is a consensus that the path of the dollar will determine the general direction of the US economy as well as gold.

One reason given for the decline in gold is that it no longer performs a role as protection against currency devaluation or fluctuation since it is relatively easy for a CB and others to hedge by maintaining a basket of currencies for this purpose. Thus, as long as there is an effective currency such as the dollar which can be used as a hedge, it is unlikely gold will not be used for this purpose.

A second reason for the decline is that there is no need to use gold as a hedge against domestic inflation since as long as the dollar remains strong it will have a mitigating effect on domestic inflation. In addition a strong dollar, of course, encourages foreign purchases of domestic securities and debt to the benefit of the national debt and accounts deficits.

Now that the EMU is generally acknowledged as starting on time, in a year or so there will only be three major competing global currencies: the dollar, the yen and the EMU. Since it is generally believed that the EMU will be relatively weak on its birth, since the Yen appears to be adversely affected by a weak Japanese economy for the foreseeable future, and since the effects of the recent Asian currency devaluations on the US economy are deminimis, the trigger mechanisims that you refer to would not seem likely and the dollar should continue to be strong and provide a curency and inflation hedge.

However one interesting speculation is that the current round of currency devaluations will soon affect Central and Latin America, which is reportedly fundamentally more rational for a devaluation than Asia. And many pundits are now predicting this currency devaluation with greater certainty and with an adverse spill-over on the dollar. Something to consider.

Skylark: No question that economic strength and market perception of the soundness of financial policies have a lot to do with currency movements. But gold provides added insurance since governments and CB heads come and go. I suspect some of the Asian countries that have just experienced currency collapses wish they had bought more gold at today's dirt cheap prices.

Also we must distinguish between currencies and reserve currencies. The latter are subject to more stringent requirements than the former. Gold will be more important to the Euro's role in the global financial system then it is for any non-reserve national currency. If the European CBs dump large amounts of gold before establishing the EMU, many will conclude they are not really serious about wanting a strong European currency. And they will be right.

It is quite easy to disparage the role of gold as a factor maintaining currency strength after a 15 year bull market in financial assets and the greatly increased ability of corporate and financial titans to force governments to do their bidding. But when these trends change, the world's most hated asset will come back into its own.

NO MERCY: All of those factors which you speak of that should change the trend of gold are known to the market, yet gold has not changed its trend. And the fact that it has not changed its trend in view of such factors reinforces the strength of the trend.

Currency devaluations adversely effect Asian mkts. This spreads to SA where US backs many currencies. Asians repatriate to prop up finances and new debacle in SA is a US problem Like Asia is a Japanese problem. Mediocre performance of US stk and bond mkts speaks reams about what is getting ready to take place when the DOLLAR HAS BEEN STRONG. The dollar will soon PLUNGE! Over supply status and self preservation will take hold. Just like investors bought gold in 1980 so they have been rushing to the dollar now. Weakness in US stocks and bonds in spite of dollar strength is the truest indicator ( mkt action ) and it is saying run from the dollar and AS Skar said to Simba in "Lion King" "Run Simba run and run far and NEVER COMEBACK". I learned this from my kids' videos. I like the analogy it fits. This is why the incessant false spin about the US econmy when its unemployment rate is REALLY higher than most European countries.

Lurking gbug: It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that gold and gold stocks have indeed been terrible investments these last 15 years while stocks have been great. I agree with you that stocks are much better investments than gold MOST OF THE TIME.

But the next few years will not be one of those times. Just as the 1970s and 1930s weren't. With stocks greatly overvalued even according to Alan Greenspan's models, and the yellow as cheap it as it has ever been relative to financial assets, gold and gold mining stocks will shine very brightly these next few years as the stock mania fades.

Early in the next century the worm will turn again as equities come back into favor. By then gold should be at least $1000 an ounce and many mining stocks will surge 500% or even 1000%.

My view is very similar to that of OLDMAN. Stock bull not over yet but close. Gold bear still in force, but not much longer.

It's all a matter of cycles, relative values, and shifting investment paradigms.

Prophetic Economist George S. Cole foresees a lackluster gold performance until greenback tanks. Once dollar turns south & short interest remains high, an explosive up move is a good bet:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/cole831.html

The trend has changed. I posted a cycle of events yesterday, and stand by it. There were stages, with gold being the last and ultimate play, the 'safest shelter'.
Here's an example of what I consider a trend change.
BROKERS on Monday confirmed they have been issuing heavy margin calls that collectively could amount to several billion
dollars following the free fall of the Hong Kong stock market in recent days.

Analysts said the cash calls could further whipsaw the market today as investors sell their holdings to meet brokers' demands.
http://www.hkstandard.com/online/finance/001/frontpg/fina001.htm

Donald: Thanks, I appreciate your continuing research and willingness to share what you find.

Carl: MSFT is a 900 lb gorilla. They have sound strategy for the next two years and unbelievable marketing. Intel is getting more competition but they too, have tremendous market clout. The "Wintel" axis is truly amazing. I don't own any of either at this point, but will when valuations are better. Intel's new 440LX chip set and pentium II cpu priced competitively, should guarantee supremacy into the forseeable future. I love these toys. ; )

GEORGE COLE: Thank you for your reply. I have considered the argument on whether gold should be maintained as part of the CB reserve base. On one hand, it provides a hedge against unexpected adverse contingencies. On the other hand as evidenced by the recent FED study, it can be successfully argued that although it may have advantages, it is certainly not an essential component. I have read many comments on the reasons why the EMU will be strong or weak, but never have I read any that contribute the strength of lack of it to the amount of gold that will be held as a reserve asset. Indeed if gold were a primary factor, the union could ensure the strength merely by placing a proviso that nearly all of its reserves will be in gold.

As to the Asian devaluation, and the regret of CB banks in not having more gold, I see it differently, Asian banks have been better off by having dollars instead of gold. Since gold is priced in dollars, both gold and the dollar would have appreciated the same relative to their currency but the dollar provides a more liquid source to protect the currency. If it were preferable for these CB's to have gold, then one would expect to see purchase of gold by CBs in neighboring countries which may be threatened by devaluation, which has not been the case.

Some updates--1. Mike Sheller came up with a 'scope for the '97 El Nino. The striking thing about it is that it is very similar to forecasts from NOOA and Scripps Ocean. Inst. Thanks Mike. 2. How about them Asian markets tonight? 3. Watch Volume figures tomorrow on the HM 98 Call Strike Price 15.

NOOA=NOAA

Skylark's comments are valid as long as no one ever wants to sell the oversupply dollar of the bubble US economy and Stk Mkt.

Am I safe in assuming then that you do not subsribe to the DOW 10,000 by year 2000 or sooner predictions, we see each day? predictions which seem pretty conservative and tame compared to the gains of the past 5 years? In general, when do you expect a reversal of trend?

Lurkngbug:

Dow 2000 in 2000
Gold 2000 in 2000

NOMERCY: I do not disagree that there has been a significant change in Asian economies which are influencing global markets to correct. Whether this will result in a change in a long term trend remains to be seen. But in any event, the gold market has not responded to any of these events. Moreover, there has not even been any reported increase in the purchase of gold by countries or investors in Asia being affected. Therefore, any suggestion that the trend in the gold market has changed by these conditions has no basis in fact. I read your earlier post, and as I recall, I did not disagree with the contents which I considered well-stated. The gold market may in time come around as you suggest. Hopefully so.

HARMONIC FREQUENCIES, in the midst of PSYCHO-BABBLE .....

I CONFESS: I am a "techie"; I have been ever since 1972-'73, when I first saw a chart of the Bank Credit Analyst's chart, of "Velocity of Demand Deposits", in the financial branch of the public library, San Francisco. And soon there-after, too: when I bought 'over-the-counter' calls on Homestake Mining, and quadrupled my money, in a few months.

And in this time, we'd be well, to study the charts. For the only
expert is still, the "market-place" itself; not-with-standing our egos'....and all the flurry & fire of psycho-babble, to boot.

A review of the weekly charts for gold and for silver, indicate a deeply oversold gold market; and a silver market...."itching" to go up. With gold prices recently breaking the '92/early-'93 lows, we need look no further than the MANIPULATION of:
#1. the recent "news" of an important Canadian mining firm's troubles, &
#2. the recent announced declaration of CB selling from Australia.
....
These two, are evidence enough, to raise our suspicions. If this is not 'manipulation', what is?

Moving on, to a review of long-term charts, of the XAU, and the mining shares themselves, the "Harmonic Frequencies", established over the last decade or two, are giving us growing evidence of the bull-market in precious metals, that is 'birthing".

Long-term investors are best advised to continue accumulating shares of selected gold & silver mining cos. Short-term-traders would do well to watch closely, the day-to-day action in:
paladium
platinum
ASA
ABX
AU
CDE
NEM
.
......
price jumps in these ( above ) , esp. with jumps in volume, &/or sustained volume numbers along with advancing share prices, will confirm the resumption of the bull-market 'chapter'.... begun in late '92-early'93.

Reviewing long-term charts of the following, add evidence, to this "unfolding-bull" scenario. ::

XAU: between 90 and 100, has been a fulcrum, a most important harmonic frequency range, for this vital indicator, for a long time now. As the XAU lifts off, from the 100 level/range, the metals will begin their first major advance, for this trading period. ( See my previous posts, regarding the XAU. )

ASA: This bell-weather stock, holding at the harmonic-frequency line,
of '30', is resonating with the call to BUY, the metals, at this time.

ABX: Refusing to go back down to $20/sh., this well-managed co. clues
us in -- the best is yet to come: " So, come-in, again!"

AU: This stock, for whatever reason ( s ) , is 'a steal'.

BMG: "Tag-Up", with $5.00/sh., recently reached down to, will not be seen again.

CDE: Up, up, & a-way; & silver too.

HM: $13-$15/sh. : this is the 'caldron of fire', for this stock, and it's 'current-crucible'. As HM breaks out, and above this trading
range, metals will accelerate.

NEM: Wouldn't we all love to have the chance to buy this one again, below $40/sh. It will not happen.

PDG: A major producer, and a 'sleeper'.

SSC: leverage

ECO: on the floor, no way to go, but up.

So. Africans: I'm tempted to go into these; but suggest - just
'watching' gold funds, and ASA, instead. Keep it simple.

Best Regards, hope this is helpful, to any of you, with open minds, and the patience, to wade-thru my 2-cents-worth, and MY "psycho-babble".

Sincerely,
David Blair Macrory, C.T.A.
San Diego

Malaysia: Mahathir denies Anwar
resignation rumour

MONDAY SEPTEMBER 1 1997

By James Kynge in Kuala Lumpur

Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysia's prime minister, denied strong speculation
at the weekend that Anwar Ibrahim had resigned as finance minister
because of disagreements over how to combat the crisis in the nation's
financial markets.

"Anwar is not resigning. He is going to be there doing all he can about this
thing," Dr Mahathir said. He added that "rumour-mongers" who spread
such irresponsible notions "should be shot" because all they seemed to care
about was making money at the expense of the country.

The speculation over Mr Anwar's resignation follows a recent denial that
Ahmad Don, central bank governor, was also planning to resign. It also
comes at a time when there are clear signs of policy disarray within the
nation's leadership.

Mr Anwar, who is also deputy prime minister, has said that some of
Malaysia's large infrastructure projects, many of which are heavily reliant
on imports, should be put on hold until an expanding trade deficit starts to
narrow. The deficit is seen as a key cause of the Malaysian ringgit's 18 per
cent decline since early July. It has also affected sentiment on the stock
market, which is down 35 per cent from its peak in February.

But Dr Mahathir, who is the driving force behind the so-called
"megaprojects", has rejected any suggestion that they be shelved. A
reported remark from an International Monetary Fund official that the
"megaprojects" might be put off, incurred the prime minister's ire at the
weekend.

He said the IMF's motive was simply to prove that it had been right in
recommending that Malaysia slow its economy. The prime minister also
criticised the IMF's package of aid to rescue Thailand from its financial
crisis. "I would like to say that after [the IMF] helped Thailand, the Thai
baht is still sliding and the Thai economy is still in bad shape," he said. "So
why do you borrow from the IMF, which is not of any help?" Malaysia
pledged US$1bn as part of the US$16.7bn Thai rescue package led by
the IMF.

Other signs of strain within the government were revealed when Mr Anwar
was not present at a key meeting last week to announce that pension funds
would devote "billions of ringgit" to propping up the stock market. But Dr
Mahathir denied he had taken over the finance portfolio, saying it merely
appeared so because he was responsible as head of government.

Malaysian economists reflected a mood of growing impatience with what
many regard as the prime minister's refusal to address the country's
concrete economic ills. "What is needed at this juncture is a clear policy
direction by the authorities in critical areas and the will to stick to it," said
Michael Yap, senior research fellow at the influential Malaysian Institute of
Economic Research.

"Unclear policy directions will only add to the uncertainty of the situation.
Investors get unsettled by uncertainties," he added.











 Copyright the Financial Times Limited 1997
"FT" and "Financial Times" are trademarks of The Financial Times Limited.

WW: The dollar is the key in all of this, and as long as the dollar remains strong, I see little chance of a signficant rise in gold. But once the dollar begins downtrending, a rise in gold has all sorts of rationale possibilities. Interestingly, a bearish sell-off in the general stock market can be started by or start a secular fall in the dollar.

WW: HEY, that would make a catchy political slogan: DOW 2000 IN 2000 & GOLD 200O IN 2000! From your lips to HIS ears

THE TENT IS COLLAPSING ::

At the tent:
one by one, the stakes are failing ...
tie-ropes are breaking
tigers trembling
imf fingers in the dam
trembling

more fingers needed
then are what am

stakes go first
then, the outer poles
finally the center pole
collapses

and in the dust
and in the debris

and in the anguish and ashes

the rubble will reveal
eternal gold










Return to Kitco Homepage

With Churchillian clarity & logic Guru Milhouse analyzes Alan Greenspans "secret weapon to ensure economy doesnt dive. M-3 accelerated growth is keystone to higher GOLD prices:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse831.html

nomercy, Does this guy Dr. Whazisname sound emotional or what?

DAVID: Your view on manipulation in my opinion is absurd. It is of course possible for a conspiracy among central banks to deflate gold, but IMO highly unlikely. I have not seen a syntilla of any credible evidence supporting such conspiracy. And those who use it as an excuse for gold's behavior are often those who cannot otherwise justify why gold should not go up in accordance with their self-imposed beliefs. As far as the stocks that you mentioned and their performance, I could not agree with you more. But as of Friday, they were heavy, did not respond to any rally in gold nor any favorable news. And it would appear as if they expected gold to fall-off before any significant rise. I would agree ASA is a key stock, it has held in well to its recent lows, but has not rallied at all as would be expected as a lead in to any major shift in trend. In short, IMO, the verdict looks good but the jury is still out.

DAVID: I noticed AU and BMG on your list. You should be aware that both those companies have convertible preferred stocks trading on the NYSE. Each pays a dividend of more than 7%. I think they have enough funds to cover the dividend. The conversion terms change over time.

Thai stocks fell, led by banks, after Krung Thai
Bank, Thai Military Bank and Bangkok
Metropolitan Bank revealed interest was not being
paid on more than 10 per cent of their loans.

The banks' disclosure of non-performing loans up
to June 30 triggered concern more money would
have to be set aside to offset bad debts.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970902004650098?=mar&template=DNoCommas.htx&maxfieldsize=714

DONALD: AU is over 50% owned by CYM, as you know. Therefore, I do not consider the convertible any major risk, particularly with the earnings and cash flow now coming in. But the risk to AU is its shelf-registration ready to be implemented on any significant increase in price to relieve the heavy debt burden. AU is about the best looking gold stock on the board, IMO, as of this time. It is highly leveraged with a hedge on domestic production and no hedge on Russian production.

CARL: I have been looking for information about 1929-1932 stock dividends since your post. I regret that I have found nothing meaningful. From memory I know that many of the Dow 30 stocks of that day had extensive unbroken dividend records. I also recall that after the crash ( 1931-1932 ) yields were in the 9-12% range for stocks and 2.5% range for US Treasury bonds.

Someone stated about a week ago that 60 trillion dollars worth of derivatives posed a clear and present danger to the world's financial house. Would someone again define what a derivative is and what would need to take place in stock markets for derivitives to collapse. Are many SE Asian countries exposed to derivatives??

From today's India Express

Dubai gold trade set to look up: Traders expect a subdued
gold market in Dubai to pick up next month as Indian importers
look to secure supplies for the country's main festival and wedding
season, traders in the Gulf Arab emirate said on Sunday. Traders
said a report of an imminent relaxation of Indian gold imports had
hit Dubai's gold trade in the past week. Earlier this month traders
said they expected the government to relax gold imports as part of
economic reforms, but they said this could take some time. Dubai
is the main source of gold imported to India. Around three
quarters of Dubai's gold imports are re-exported to India.

It is also not clear whether sustained margin calls and forced selling of
stocks have taken place. While bankers say no forced selling or
margin calls have taken place yet, analysts and stockbrokers note
that many clients -- including large corporations -- have been asked
to put up more cash to offset declining stock values.
http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/pages/nfrnt01.html

Update-- EBN is now working. Good way to watch the Labor Day fireworks display tonight. When you get there, just "click" on "Stocks", "Currency", "Bonds", or "Commodities". http:/www.ebn.co.uk/Markets/ Updates every 15 minutes. You can follow Gold, Bonds, Nekkei, Yen, DMark, etc.

EBN site is HERE-- http://www.ebn.co.uk/Markets/

Dongwon Securities head Kim Jung Tae warned that the future of
South Korea's faltering economy would depend on the government's
handling of the crisis over the near-bankrupt carmaker Kia Group.
"A deep depression may hit our economy if a wrong decision is made
over Kia," he said.

Analysts said the government was losing the confidence of foreign
and local investors for its inconsistent economic policy, which was
highlighted by a controversial move last week to overhaul what is
known here as a "bankruptcy-deferment pact".
http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/pages/nasia01.html

Donald, Thanks. I'm digging also. I'm especially interested in those companies at the time which were involved in the new businesses of the time and were 900 pound Gorillas. Like RCA and GE, although I suspect many were privately held like Ford. If I find anything interesting, I'll share.

Need advice: currently holding about 1500 oz silver purchased at 4.50 and considering investing another 3k in metals. What should I buy ( gold, silver, etc ) and when?

"If people with either large or small capital would look upon trading in stocks as an attempt to obtain 12 percent per anum, instead of 50 percent per week, they would come out a good deal better in the long run. Everyone knows this in its application to their private business, but the person who is prudent and careful in carrying on a store, factory or real estate business, seems to think thast a totally different method should be employed in dealing with stocks. Nothing is further from the truth"

Charles H. Dow
Wall Street Journal, 1901

Doug Henwood is the author of two books, Wall Street and The State of the USA Atlas .

In his new book Wall Street, Doug Henwood not only asks the question, he answers it. Far from financing real production - the expansion of existing businesses and the birth of new ones - Wall Street has almost nothing to do with such mundane activities. Far from giving good signals to corporate managers, the stock market is a volatile arena, populated mainly by traders with the emotional maturity of young teenagers, whose fads are best ignored. And far from serving any useful role,shareholders, who have been angling for more and more say in corporate strategies over the last 10-15 years, do little but demand more money for themselves while presuming to offer advice to managers whose businesses they don't even begin to understand. Wall Street's preference that the corporations they're increasingly running for sure-thing, quick-payback investment and R&D projects may be boosting profits now, and with them stock prices - but at what long term costs?

Yet somehow we're being led to believe that the 1990s mutual fund mania has led to a democratization of finance. Some democracy.

http://www.panix.com/~dhenwood/Book_info.html

DONALD: Your comments on the following article from the Hanseatic Corporation, Global Market Strategist Advisory Service 29 August 1997, are welcomed:

"The turmoil among East Asian currencies, rather than subsiding to something more orderly after the first round of speculative selling was sated, has continued to build and is now affecting all of the popular Asian and Pacific markets except China. Even decidedly first world markets in Japan and Australia are starting to be affected, and the spillover now threatens Latin America, which we have felt could be even more disastrously vulnerable than Asia to such a wave of panic asset liquidation. If this happens, all bets are off for most of the rest of the year for financial markets worldwide no matter how benign the fundamental inflation environment becomes. Latin American turmoil would undoubtedly unleash the pent-up dollar bears, who would then engage in wholesale slaughter of stock values. It is possible that major bond markets could hold steady at least on a relative basis in such a crisis as they anticipate central banks coming to the rescue with massive liquidity contributions.. Now, is this a warning or a prediction? In fact, it is evolving rather quickly from the former to the latter. Latin America has progressed a long way toward first world status, but it will take more than a couple of "democratic" elections and a healthy Brady bond market to bring South America all the way up this ladder. In the meantime, the potential for social unrest, political upheaval, and devastating corrections to markets which have gotten ahead of themselves remains extremely high. In general, financial markets are healthy enough to ward off isolated problems one at a time. As long as the domino effect is avoided, no one of the potential hot spots need be devastating to the whole structure."

Litterbug: This is what my advice would be--If I have paid off all Credit Card Loans, Auto Loans, Home Equity Loans, Own My Own Home, etc. then I would buy $1,000 each, worth of Gold, Platinum, and Silver bullion. But, I would invest the 3K in paying off high interest loans as a first priority, before buying more PM's.

Littlebug--Apologies for typo of your name.

Oh how I could only WISH for DOW 2000 in 2000. What a "Golden" ( no pun intended ) BUY opportunity that would be. Why, it'd be a chance for those of us ridiculing the "D&G" crowd to add yet a few hundred more percentage points to our gains of the 90's. We just have to be cautious enough to bail before any huge losses are incurred. ( Something I surely intend to do if fundamentals dictate a long term pull back ) . Meanwhile, I think that for you perpetual "Crash is coming soon" types, no reversal in cyclic trends could be large enough to compensate for the gains you've missed in the past 15 years. Most of us who've made small fortunes in the market have already diversified our positions enough ( in real estate, dollars, income instruments, or in my case even metals ) , so that we'll NEVER become losers for having paticipated in this Bull, even if the DOW drops to ZERO tomorrow! ( Wiating for the luscious buying oppotunity, LGB )

"THE COMING COMPETING CURRENCY DEVALUATIONS" - Dines reviews the spate of currency devaluations in Far-East. He aptly exposes Central Bank folly of increasing rates to defend their currency:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines830.html

SKYLARK: Brazil is by far the most vulnerable, it has been making small devaluations daily and said today that it feels another 20% deval. is in order. Brazil stocks were down 5% today, they are now 35% down from the high. Mexico is second in line with a horrible debt situation. Stocks are down 12% from the high. Argentina, Chile and Peru have much improved currency and debt situations but I do not see how they can withstand the "Tequila Effect". Everyone will get nailed. The police were recently on strike in Brazil. There is a general strike scheduled for Argentina. Many companies throughout the region have poor balance sheets I suspect. Also, I do not see how the Clinton administration could possibly get away politically with another Mexican bailout. They are 80% likely to be on their own this time. Columbia recently devalued. I don't know enough about Venezuela to have an opinion.

I would advise him to buy PUTS In the S&P 5 thou....OOPS, wait a sec. sorry, that's PUTZE'S advice! Personally Littlebug, I'd buy silver Walking Liberty Halves and Mercury Dimes from the 30's & 40's. Always in demand numismatically, but currently available for only a small premium over spot price. Highly liquid in any increment. Even saleable at "retail" prices for a good 50% markup if you want to visit your local flea markets! And for the "crash" "G&D" crowd, silver coin just might maintain it's value when our "phony pretend paper" ceases to have any worth as the house of UNO cards comes crashing down. ( OOps, confused again, the UNO thing was a game I was playing with my 5 year old a little bit ago... )

LURKINGBUG The fundamentals will never really dictate you leave until near the end of the decline when the fundamentals become obvious. At which time we will be near a trading low. It is possible that we have just seen a multi decade high in financials. When its all over the believers will be broke as they buy the dips through the years.

Apologies, I completely misread your post as saying "GOLD 2000 in 2000". Upon careful re-reading I see it says GOLD 200 "O" in 2000. So I see a more realistic number for gold of $200 in your view and assume the "O" means "Oh No!!" ( Poster of many typo's myself but wondering if Freudian slips may occur here...LGB )

I am heading to Venezuela for a couple of weeks to have two root canals and three teeth capped and one surgical extraction. Cost 1100 including airfare at an all inclusive resort and the cost of dental work 700.
Cost of dental work in US 4000. I ask is there a business opportunity which is waiting in the travel industry here. Free Rum at resort will be good pain killer. Technicals of Dentistry at US stds.

MAKE MONEY ON YOUR NEXT TROPICAL VACATION. Talk about yer tequilla effect boys.

DONALD: Thanks for your comments. From the little I know about it, Brazil and Mexico are kingpins; how they go affects the rest of the neigboring countries. I saw the earlier report on Brazil, which I believe you posted. I had thought Argentina and Brazil were getting their house in order. I wonder how much US investment is in Mexican debt. I would agree that politically, another bailout is not feasible. It is strange that I have not seen more of this in the media. I would add this site to your bookmarks: http://lp-llc.com/cents/

LITTLEBUG: First, let me apologize for the behavior of some here tonight. Second, I agree with Auric about the debt. That should always be the first priority, no exceptions. I am using a fund which trades on the US & Canada called Central Fund of Canada. It holds both gold and silver bullion, 75% silver, 25% gold right now. The symbol is CEF. It is not a get rich quick deal. This is buy and hold for safety. As to when, I would do it now. It is impossible to pick a bottom. There is enough evidence about a worldwide currency firestorm to act ASAP in my opinion. In any event, the decision is for you to make and live with.

LurkingGbug--What say you to paying off high interest loans as a first priority for Littlebug, rather than buying more coins first?

Littlebug: If you have high interset loans buy a few longterm calls on silver and keep rolling for a couple of years and with any luck your loans will be paid off. I like the July 6 calls at 500 each. Guten Tag.

Well WW, I don't know. Many of us who rode this bull have shifted from "Buy and holders" to "traders". I'm on the sidelines at the moment waiting. And I think I'll have a chance to make another 20% before the tide turns. Meanwhile, last week there were more analyst Bears than Bulls on Wall st., definitely not a sign of looming doom as any good contrarian knows. Not to mention Mr. Cole's quite astute observations about few new lows being made and many new highs in the broad market. Then we have a shift to small caps ( NASDAQ was up Friday ) , and then we have all the other incredibly strong economic fundamentals lately that certainly don't portend a crash. Low unemployment & inflation, energy prices low, good balance of trade, strong dollar, low interest rates, tax cut in coming year, broadly diversified economy, increasing savings rate in 401K plans ( reversing a trend of many years of dropping personal savings rates ) , inflow of foreign investment capitol to the "safest" economy in the world, high corporate profits, highest prouctivity, what more do you guy's want?? Huh? Huh? What would make you bullish???? Sure I'll turn bearish when all these things change but till then....DOW 7000 I buy...DOW 10,000 I sell!!!!!

"I surely intend to do if fundamentals dictate a long term pull back"

Out of curiosity: How do you define fundamentals? If it is industrial strength, US is quickly falling to the level of the third-world countries. When was the last time you have bought an electronic device, a car, any appliance, or even a pair of pants that were made in the USA? There is a substantial market with "Proudly Made in The USA" stickers. Let me describe to you how it generally works - somebody buys all the parts manufactured in Asia, and then puts them in a box with a "Made in the USA" sticker. There is a whole small-business industry that does just that. I have seen many, many small businesses that will buy a complete Japanese motor, for example, then change one insignificant part on it and then place the "Proudly Made .." sticker on it.

Please look at any import-export yearly data. The main US exports are as follows:
1. Paper obligations
2. Unprocessed agricultural commodities
3. Unprocessed natural resoureces ( like timber )

If it was not for the popularity of the first cathegory of exports, US would clearly be in the third-world class of countries. It is highly labor and technology intensive products that make employment and growing standards of living possible. The whole concept of "Service Economy" is the biggest idiocy ever invented. How does it work exactly? Half of the population sells Coke and the other half collects cans? Or half of the working population takes orders for the Chinese-made junk and the other half works for the Teamsters delivering it to Oprah-watching majority?

It is only the popularity of the US paper instruments abroad that keeps the house of cards from falling. How are you protecting yourself from the possibility that Japanese investment in US paper was simply designed to destroy all industry in the US? How do your "fundamentals" tell you what the next action of Asian governments will be ( or when it will be ) ? What would happen to your investements if the Japanese have dumped all the US paper next week?

Just Curious. Best Regards.

WW: What is your take on the gold market. Is gold going to make new lows, if so, why. Will the XAU follow? Do you think there is much risk to a further sell off in gold stocks with a downtrending stock market? Some professionals have predicted a mid-200 range before gold finally bottoms out. Do you think this has any reasonable possibility?

TW: Always good to have another goldbug in town. Are you going to Caracas or Margarita?
Ya, dentists are cheap, but be very careful about the steritly of their instruments. Local mentality is that only "foreiners" have aids, and locals are immune.
My wife ( also Venezuelan ) is a medical surgeon, and is terrified of the dentists here....she always waits until our trips to our vacation home in Fla.

Yes I'd ALWAYS advocate paying off consumer debt before making investment purchases with ONE excpetion. That exception of course is to invest in a 401K if avaialable. The benefits of the 401K contributions are generally so huge that it more than offsets paying high interest on consumer debt. After all, in most plans you have company contributions of 30 to 50%, and an immediate tax savings of 28% or so in many states. Where else can you make huge gains even when there is a declining market?? Plus the plans are quite liquid. I can call at any time ( never had a rpoblem getting through to Fidelity ) , and move from any fund to money market, in a minute's time.

LURKINGBUG; Lurkin A. your information is old news which the markets have already acted upon/which I think price action indicates. B. Alot of it is simply untrue. If we calculated our employment rate as in Germany our rate would be well over 12% unemployed. Interest rates are high given the economic situation and would be higher without foreign subsidy. If you really look behind the mirror this is a Dorian Grey economy ie forever looking good but rotting unbelieveably in reality. It is hard to imagine worse worldwide fundamentals than now exist if you REALLY look at what is going on. This is why many investors will lose all of their money on the bear market mountain of hope, the corollary to the bull market wall of worry. Your comments are proof this denial mentality is strongly and probably irreversebly entrenched.

Globex S&P +260, Oz dollar at .73

LurkingGbugster--Agree with wisdom of 401K. Hell, I ought to know. I bought a bunch of Homestake with mine!

As a person observing and trying to understand behavior, it becomes
very difficult to predict what will happen when the {new era ) investor
has to hit the exit doors. We now have the Beardstown Ladies and a
newly wed at the fed seemingly calling the shots. Warren Buffett is
going to stabilize bonds by buying zeros. Then I realized because of
the wonders of medicine, thats what pain killers are for!

DONALD: Re: Central FUnd Of Canada.. According to the numbers I have CEF has some $60M in gold and $32M in silver or so...So it is more like 65-35% in favor of gold.

Are ya ready for some football

Talk about typo's! Re 401K tax savings, I MEANT to say, 28% to 42% in many states. In CA for example, if you're in a 31% FED bracket and 11% states bracket you're saving 42% just in tax alone. Sure you'll be liable for it someday, but the assumption is that the liability will be at much lower "ratirement" disbursement rates, and also that liability will be in puny "inflated" dollars. Kind of the inverse of the rip-off program known as Social Security by those who like to talk DoubleSPeak. There we get to "invest" our whole lives and then get paid in puny dollars ( if any are left ) while the folks collecting now are reaping the top fo the pyramid type benefits. Damned Democrat programs!

LGB: I trade the general market also and have currently taken profits on most of my positions. I observe key growth stocks such as CPQ, IBM, TXN, MSFT, AOL etc. to determine their performance relative to the DOW as an indicator and these stocks tell me that this instant decline will soon be over and a sharp rally is at hand. Whether we reach another high though is another question. Fundamentally, your argument is not as sound as you present it: Productivity has not materially increased; historic high employment levels and continued strong GDP growth and consumer demand engender inflation; previous mitigating forces on inflation of a rising dollar and lowering energy costs are likely to have less influence, if not reversed; the real interest rate has remained stubborningly high despite no inflation; prolonged substantial increases in money supply will eventually come home to roost; employee demands are becoming more belligerent ie UPS; and although money may continue to come into the market from pension plans and the like, it will take a lot more of it to buy stocks at this level that when the market was at earlier. In addition, technically, sharp volitility de jour is usually associated with market tops. Thus although the market may go higher, the risks now are substantially greater that a major top is near.

CC: OK. I called them about 2 months ago to find out if they were permitted to loan out the metal. ( the answer was no ) . At the time I thought they said 75% Silver, 25% gold but I do not hear well. Are they permitted to make strategic adjustments to the mix?

Donald:
Venezuelan goverment is in the enviable position of that they just don't care. Everyone here is "praying" for a devaluation, but we have had the same exchange rate for more than a year and a half. The factories can no longer afford to produce.....it is now cheaper to buy quality imported products than locally manufactured. Never try to outguess the Venezuelan economy, I have been trying to for the last 12 years, and always come out wrong. Ven has the world's single greatest oil reserves now, more than Iraq and Iran combined, and the oil production is used to inject into the central bank daily, to prevent the bolivar from sliding.....as the goverment continues rolling the printing presses 24 hours per day to pay their ominous social and political programs at the same time. As long as fuel prices stay up......Ven will not devalue......if they drop....watch out below. That is the ONLY way to outguess this economy.....the gov here does not know how to look beyond today.
Cmax

GEORGE COLE: ( 17:51 ) George, your comment "gold and gold stocks terrible investments last 15 years" does not do the mello yello justice. Nor the notion of bold technical trading ( admittedly soimething for only the sophisticated and non-placid ) . One of my best single play in stocks of recent years was Sunshine Mining off its horoscope at the end of 1992. My only error was to sell too soon with 150% instead of 300%. The gold stock rally of 1993 alone brought heavier profits for bottom fedders in '92/93 than the Dow over the past 3 years. Gold stocks from June '89 to Jan '90 brought 70- 100% for traders. August '82 brought a more spectacular gold stock rally than other industrials.
Triples were not uncommon in the ensuing nine months. And '86-'87 were good years to be long shares and deferred futures.

Skylark: the US dollar is key and is the final domino in the worldwide financial ponzi scheme which is starting to crack. This is why we always hear ECONOMIC BOOM. In spite of record debt and bankruptcies and demonstrably false econ numbers ( unemployment ) used to keep the foreign money confident in our TITANIC economy. Corp earnings are also falsely spun to keep inflows coming ie Coke reporting business sales as operating revenue. I think the Dollar is just about done as the whole ponzi scheme depends on it continuing everywhere. It is now coming down on many fronts not just a MEXICO. Since the dollar is overowned world wide when the worldwide dollar economy beomes unhinged that is when the dollar will crash and gold will rise. Given the depth of this bubble it could start quickly and furiously/ No time to get in or out.

West Coast temps. now 4 to 6 degrees warmer than usual, California South, due to El Nino. Albacore being caught off of Santa Cruz instead of Salmon. Marlin landed a few days ago. This coupled with Lunar eclipse portends a certain crash in the market...film at 5:00.

LurkingGbug: Your comment on "Plus the plans are quite liquid. I can
call at any time ( never had a rpoblem getting through
to Fidelity ) , and move from any fund to money market, in a minute's
time." is not true. Read closely any Fidelity fund prospectus. In
section on restriction you will find the following statement which
gives them right to restrict your transaction if market goes crazy.
This means - if market goes down and investors try to pull out, Fidelity
say NO and you go down with it. The following is extract from Fidelity
prospectus ( every Fidelity fund has it ) Good luck!
********
The fund reserves the right to refuse
exchange purchases by any person or
group if, in FMRs judgment, the fund
would be unable to invest the money
effectively in accordance with its in-vestment
objective and policies, or
would otherwise potentially be ad-versely
affected.
_
Your exchanges may be restricted or
refused if the fund receives or antici-pates
simultaneous orders affecting
significant portions of the funds assets.
In particular, a pattern of exchanges
that coincides with a "market timing"
strategy may be disruptive to the fund.
Although the fund will attempt to give
you prior notice whenever it is reason-ably
able to do so, it may impose these
restrictions at any time. The fund re-serves
the right to terminate or modify
the exchange privilege in the future.

WW: Thanks for the reply. I agree with your concept. But I have a hard time visualizing the trigger which will cause the dollar to fall in that the US economy for all its faults appears to be in better shape than any other. But I wonder if there is anything which will participate a fall in all paper currencies - and it is this question I have no present answer.

MIKE SHELLER: Ditto on Sunshine. I have had three round trips on it. Also on reco of Sarnoff did very well with LAC, DeBeers, Santa Fe, Blyvoor, Placer Dome and Bema. My only loser was Pegasus in the past 5? years although I am holding BMG at a loss now and will probably switch at tax time.

CMAX: What is your opinion on Skylark's question? Do you see any problems with my answer to him?

Brazil stocks down 500 or about 5% today. Mexico was closed for Holiday.

I'm back and ready for tomorrows opening bell. I have also made over 600% on my money and like you are ready to make some more. You'll never see the Dow at 7000 because I'm back and my friends are back too. I can't believe the bargains. Fools dumping Gillette, Coca-Cola. Don't wait for 7000 it'll never happen because us dipsters are back and we're going to 10,000 by September 30. I know you won't let these goldbugs fool you and convince you that the it's over because it ain't.
Don't be a fool. You're a dipster at heart. Join us now or you'll miss another 40% opportunity.

DIPSTER: Thanx for the chuckle.

S&P Globex +200, Oz dollar .7273 ( new low? ) Brit. pound 1.60

DIPSTER: Can you drink Coke and shave at the same time? They can use you for a Fidelity Magellen commercial.

Dipster, you are exactly what the big boys with the merchandise are
waiting for! Distribution

Most Asian equity markets are up tonight....Dec. Gold down .70 @ 326.70

Wow, made 150% in SSC which has been a terrible dog for many years. You MUST be a clever trader! And did you bail out right at the top of Bre-X also? After all there MUST have been some celestial signs on that one, being the debacle of the century and all.... Hey , when do I get an answer on our long positions relative to the Planetary alignment of Y2K??

HaHa very funny, I'm laughing as I review my latest Fidelity statement and compare it to 1989! As to liquidity, Fidelity has never invoked that "clause" to ky knowledge, including in 1987 semi-crash. Anyone have evidence to the contrary?

philby ( Rogue River country ) :
Someone stated about a week ago that 60 trillion dollars worth of
derivatives posed a clear and present danger to the world's financial
house. Would someone again define what a derivative is and what would
need to take place in stock markets for derivatives to collapse.

__________________________________________________________________

I've seen derivatives defined, in a nutshell, as a financial
instrument linked to another financial instrument. One could call
an adjustable-rate mortgage a derivative, a debt instrument linked
to this or that interest rate.

I've no idea what impact a sharp or protracted decline in the stock
market would have on the derivatives market. Last I saw the _face value_
of derivatives outstanding was $67T, their market value a tiny fraction
of that.

Barron's had a piece on derivatives in Abelson's column some weeks
back, claiming that, in general, one of the int'l investment banks is the
holder of the other end of the swap and that a decline of 1%-2% in value
of the outstanding derivatives would wipe out the reserve capital of
the world's largest int'l investment banking houses. Strong stuff.

His source for the data claimed that the young rocket scientists
designing these instruments were modeling their performance parameters
according to the domestic stock market returns of the past 20 years or
so and not a longer period of expected returns which is materially
different. That's the only link to stock market performance as regards
derivatives that springs to mind.

Was just down Medford/Grant's Pass way last week, off to Pendleton
tomorrow.

Skylark: What has been the mantra of the Wall st types for ten years. GLOBAL ECONOMY. This Economy is DOLLAR BASED. The cracks that are occurring are against the DOLLAR BASED world economy which the basis behind "FREE TRADE". Labor has always been cheap overseas it is this globalized dollar economy which has allowed the phenomenm to develop. Now there are cracks everywhere and this is why you here a constant din of laughable acclamations about the US economy. So the dollar is rising as money flows back to the basis of the system which is the dollar itself. This is much like resources rushing back to Nazi Germany as each of its puppet states fell. Germany gained all the resources of its system before its collapse. The laughable claims about the US economy remond me of Goebbels secret weapon claims near the end before their system collapsed. What we are witnessing is the end of the "global economy dollar system". It could go very quickly. This why gold is loathed. Cracks popping up everywhere/ Looks like the allies have landed and its on to Berlin!

2Bro: I thought derivitives were "options" and "futures" contracts. Is this not correct?

2BRO2B--Did Abelson's column name the Bank? Would it be in Barron's archives?

Your right, presently there is no good case for a weaker dollar.

But we both have to admit, that with direct US debt about 5 trillion dollars, not to mention the other indirect 10+ trillion, there is no way that the US will ever totally repay. ( The motto is just keep rolling it over and Japan is buying it HOOK LINE AND SINKER, they also bought Pebble beach )

Shit, I would never sell a good car here under those conditions, unless the major part of the sales proceeds went into something of value.

The baloney, that this years deficit is just a small percentage of the 15+ trillion is a joke, because we are talking about a huge amount of money.

The only reason the foreigners go along is that their houses are not in good order either, thus why throw stones at glass houses, one is liable to hit anyone of them [maybe theirs]. Perhaps it's the old saying "TO BIG TO FAIL". Then there is The Lusitania, the Andria Doria.

LurkingGbug is probably following the above line of government reasoning; and so far has been doing OK, but remember 1979, 1983, mid 1987 and 1993 when a nimble goldbug made real good money "PROBABLY FAR MORE THAN 300%".

I wish that I knew the best way to approach the situation, but gold and gold shares are PRESENTLY relatively cheap.

THINK ABOUT IT?

Re: Manufacturing vs Economy. If one dterrmines the economy of the US is based upon manufacturing then it is true the US is becomming a third world country with semi-skilled workers needed to assemble foreign made products. However look overseas at what products DOMINATE. Intell, Microsoft, Netscape. These infromation based business lead the world. Sure you by the box that is manufactured mostly by Asian companies. But the heart is Intell or Cyrux or AMD and the brain is Microsoft, IBM. I am writing this on a 486 clone I bought five years ago. What I have spent my money on and it has been several times what the box has cost is software that is from and made in the USA. I think someone needs to factor in this measure of the economy. For too long we have depended upon manufacturing as our economic base for measuring the economy. How owuld one factor inflation looking at computers. The one you buy next year will cost less and do more. I realize in this DG infaltion and the spectre of an economic collapse dominate. However it seems to me we are baseing the actions of this economy upon actions that occured on a very different economy. The move from the train to the automobile to the jet was a logical progression. But the computer is in no way a logical progression of the jet. How does this leave those of us that believe in gold being true money. Is the past going to repeat itself or has the world gone off its nut and none of the old reactions apply?

K. Grande: The New paradigm argument about new tecnology is hallmark before huge economic upheaval. Perhaps partially due to the new technology itself.

Auric ( @home ) :

2BRO2B--Did Abelson's column name the Bank? Would it be in Barron's archives?

________________________________________________________________________

If memory serves the column was published in the last month to six weeks or so. Definitely before paid subscription started, I read it online and no longer have access.

Khunna Grande: Don't take me wrong, I make my living in IT ( computer )
industry, however, you can not eat microchip, you can not drive microchip
to work, use it instead of your pants, microchip can not be used as a
source of energy, etc.
Microchip won't grow your grains and beens when El Nino destroys the crop
( lurkingGbug, I still can't figure out why are you laughing at El Nino,
oh well, I guess it won't affect rocket science of yours ;- ) )

Petronius -- Your 20:49;;; You got that one just right! If you want to add to it just a bit, you might add the fact that machine tools are 'up there' also. That's because everyone smart enough to succeed in industry is smart enough to know that you can't do it here!

lurker ( @???? ) :
2Bro: I thought derivitives were "options" and "futures" contracts. Is this not correct?
________________________________________________________________________

Hell, I don't know, just a Joe Sixpack on a sidestreet over yon
with an armchair hobbyist's genuine interest in some of this stuff,
the sort of stuff one could buttonhole a thousand random man-in-the-
streets and not encounter an awareness much more an interest or concern
that any of it does or could have any bearing on one and one's.

Which has made this place of interest since stumbling on it and its
changing cast of characters shortly after start-up...people genuinely
interested and having inquired into the same areas I had, covered the
same ground and generally found utterly irrelevant in a popular sense.
Like, what a relief, maybe I'm not crazy.

Ven KGB stopt da fighting Inzide OUR MUttER Russia, Vee ver BiG world leAder, kno von komm near uz.
Vee vacht yu very karefully and predict dat Yu guyz HEAD fur Big BAD ASS fall on your faceS.
Kannot zay "NOT TO VORRY"

Jack--you are absolutely correct. A nimble gold bug can make money on gold shares in ANY market. I bought 17 different gold shares last year. Fourteen of them went down in price and three went up---yet I made 60k! How? 3 simple rules:
1 ) Buy when the price is rising on volume.
2 ) If they go down below your buy price --SELL 'em
3 ) If they go up-- BUY more.

You will get zugswanged out on many of em but the rules still apply.Don't fall in love with em. They won't return your love. Up--buy. Down--sell. What could be simpler. The main problem is when to start taking profits. Don't be too greedy. There will always be plenty more opportunities.

Miro-- Here is a recent update from the New York Times on El Nino of 1997. http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/enso/nyt-el-nino.html

Try again.
http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/enso/nyt_el_nino.html

Monday, September 1, 1997
Canada to join Clinton in push for NAFTA expansion

WASHINGTON ( CP ) -- The "giant sucking sound" has been silenced but other battle cries will be heard as U.S. President Bill Clinton girds himself this week for a bruising battle to expand NAFTA.

The fight will be primarily a family affair, with Clinton squared-off against fellow Democrats and traditional supporters in the U.S. labor movement.

The 1993 NAFTA fight was primarily about jobs. Union leaders say they want guarantees that factories won't move to foreign countries to take advantage of lax environmental laws and exploited workers.
"It is all part of the same 'throwaway worker' concept," said Teamsters union president Ron Carey. "It has got to stop, and stopping fast-track will be the kind of thing we need to do."

The Clinton administration will also be depending on Canada, in particular Ambassador Raymond Chretien, to help convince Congress of the merits of NAFTA expansion.
http://www.canoe.ca/News/sep1_nafta.html

Was your fabulous investment in Benquet Consolidated better than Sunshine Mining?
Sure SSC looks bad right now, many shares and presently high mining costs; what happen when that Argentine siver, tin producer comes on line?
Sunshine will probably consolidate its shares, especially after silver makes it move.
As for Benquet HARHARHAR, what a joke; heard that a certain bee-x employee got is start there.

Miro I must disagree with some of your statements. If you have a car made after 1985 you cant drive it without its many and growing microchips. Go to a car repair shop and the majority of the money spent in new equipment for the "Technicians" is for equipment that can find what is wrong with your auto by having the chips tell them. Or which ones need replacing. And I dint know how close you live to agriculture but I have a peanut field on one side of me and a cotton field on the other. The guy that owns the place farms it with a computer controled tractor that he tills his field after his computre controled sensors tell him his field needs Irrigation. He then takes it to a cotton gin that is computer contriled. Most cotton gins now only need for or five people to run where ten years ago it would take 15 or 20. Just behind the fields is a oil field. Where it once took twenty people to operate this field there is now only two. Everything is computer controled. If microsoft or Intel or the others shut down this part of the world would go tits up. Ten years ago it would be different. But today there is almost no place you can go to get away from the dadgum things. While people may react today the same way they dod ten, twenty or even fifty years ago there has been a dramatic change in the way we live. What I see from most posters think people will react to things the way they always have. My question is, will they?

Some participants mentioned here that traditional rules of economy ( i.e. industrial strength ) do not apply because the control of high tech is what makes one strong. The implied fact was that since US manufactures the micro-chips, it controls the world and is economically strong ( am I interpreting it correctly? ) .

Let me set the facts straight: only the most sophisticated, newest, high markup chips are still manufactured in the US. Even this becomes increasingly difficult. Intel has to scrap entire plants and build entire ones from zero every couple of years to continue to advance the technology. Anybody monitoring the industry knows how difficult that has become. Some 30,000 idiotic permits are needed for each such venture. AQMD ( California "Clean Air" Gestapo ) , for example, believes that EVERY piece of machinery that a commercial establishment needs ( from a CAT-scanner to pizza oven ) needs a separate AQMD "certification" ( price from $2,000 to $10,000 per device ) of "impact on clean air." Only substantial political pressure allows Intel to operate under such conditions. They constantly threaten to move the production out of California or out of the US. Let me repeat: only the newest chips are made in the USA. The rest of them are made in Japan, Korea, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, etc. For political purposes, the country of manufacture is often placed on the bottom of the chip ( so it is not visible in an assembled product ) .

What is worse, few basic components ( capacitors, resistors, memory chips ) are made in the USA. Try to build a computer without these.

Does anybody remember the fiasco with the Summitomo plant? The black plastic that every microchip is encased in? Anybody?!

Kahunna Grande -- I guess what you are saying is that the power better not ever fail for any length of time.

Dumm guy mak Agents spill wodka on pantz at KGB OFFIZIAL getogetter. Alvays, vee vet pants at KGB zhindig.
Fireplug Agent vant LGB fur ad-vizor, zo he make big money and gif up Dacha in Ziberia, fur house in Kalifornia.
Plugo tak Home Equity Loan on dacha; Kourtessy ov eesy US money markets and buy Stocks that LGB rekommend.
BEkkome rich guy.

Kahunna Grande -- I guess what you are saying is that the power better
not ever fail for any length of time.

______________________________________________________________________

Or HEMP, high electromagnetic pulse from a medium weight device
detonated at the proper altitude over the midsection taking out a
critical mass of static sensitive chips coast to coast. Funny no disaster
movie has ever been popularized from that scenario. An entire economy,
way of life balanced on a single grain of sand.

Kahunna Grande: Technologies may change but people do not. Love/hate/greed/envy/jealously, all those characteristics that ultimately move markets have remained unchanged for centuries. If you don't beleive it, read the Bible.

The development of the automobile, electric power, radio, telephone and electric refrigerator in the 1920's created tremendous amounts of investment spending in these and related industries. The development of mass-production techniques and increases in specialization boosted the productivity of labor during this period. The resulting expansion of profit margins created an environment of business optimism, and this in turn was also conducive to further investment spending....until the market crashed.

Petronius -- You're not saying that Intel was threatening to export their dirty environment, were you? It's not like we need industry here. Only paper. I think it would be most 'amusing' if ALL industry that is still here just plain close up shop for a month or two. Better yet, go ahead and move out of country. THEN we see what the clean air addict types do for a living! Them and the rest of their holier-than-thou bretheren living off the tax payer class! They want a third world country here for some strange reason. The 'back-to-the-cave' mentality! They are more than welcome to go find a cave to live in. Maybe the rest of us will get lucky and that cave will also contain a grizzly!