Hong Kong Stock Market down 2.1%. Nekkei losing earlier gains.

Anyone have an update on the Asian markets ?

More Gold: Re 00:08 question: How was THAT for a timely response?

Ebn: thats pretty efficient !!!!

Bookmark to a 1995 interview with Christopher Whalen about
Peso crash and devaluation -

http://daisy.uwaterloo.ca/~alopez-o/politics/interview.html

Eldorado: Who needs any dirty, polluting industry, when we all can live in that glorious, flower filled village ( formerly known as a commune ) ; where nobody needs to dirty their lives with participation in this evil, earth destroying commerce and industry? That is what the Chinamen were made for -- old California wisdom, back from the days for the railway building.

No American needs to work. US will patent Clintonomics. The stocks will advance to the level where everybody here will live of them. McDonalds ( this pillar of American industry of today ) will take over restaurant business worldwide. Why eat Sushi when you can have the gourmet food from McDonalds. This obvious future worldwide expansion of McDonalds makes P/E ratio of 200 a bargain. Everybody, buy the stock before the Japs will beat you to it. Run!

RJ -- Thanks for the response this past afternoon.

2BRO2: a derivative is a leveraged instrument ( paper ) whose value is based upon ( derived from ) an underlying asset ( commodity or another paper instument etc. ) OK?

http://pages.map.com/bkpowell/mexicandebt.txt

http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/topten.html ( it ain't pretty )

Donald mentioned a failure point of 17,000 on the Nikkei, where
the banking losses would force bankruptcies of major Japanese
banks.

Well, I certainly *like* the 17,000 breakpoint : ) , the last time
I checked ( around 1993 ) the breakpoint was in the 13,000 region.

It's kind of hard to believe it could have risen much, given
that the Nikkei has hovered pretty much around 20K or so,
unless the banking system has been propping themselves up
by selling shares purchased at lower prices, while simultaneously
purchasing shares at the 20K area.

Try _The Trigger Effect_. About a mysterious failure of
electricity. : )

Petronius -- Kind of takes the 'not-in-my-backyard' to extremes, doesn't it. Interesting that 'these people' haven't figured out that their toilet paper has to be made somewhere. They are in a catch twenty two situation 'cause their bretheren also wouldn't look upon their 'borrowing' a few leaves from a nearby tree either. I also find it hilarious that many of 'these' types drive the smogiest cars around!

Yes, people will react to things the way they always have.
They will deny, refuse to accept the existence of truth or validity, of
all arguments that prove the economic mess we are in.

You reference two work locations that presently employ 7 workers, in the
past 10 years, you estimate that 40 workers had previously been employed.

33 workers have disappeared. Who the hell gives a damn, especially when
everyone is told to ignore the disappearance. The very persons that have
disappeared, realize that they do not exist. As a result, these redundant
workers suffer in quiet. As they always have, as they always will.

Our society is very competitive, the 33 workers are losers.They know it,
and the community knows it. Like *to bad, so sad*.

No the workers will not fight, they have no idea, as to the cause of their individual hardship. No organization exists to represent the
under-employed or unemployed.

Gold should be active at this time in the economic history, yet, it has
also lost it's way. As have far to many workers, ( citizens ) lost their way. Sooo, on we will grind, until a major happening. We here at Kitco
( and other sites ) will continue to offer explanations. Yet, no answers
will be offered, only mixed signals. There is no absolute resolve.

Back to the basics, is likely the best plan. Fear, is in the short term.

For possible discussion topic: which will tumble first...the dollar or the dow ( dow leading but not yet crashing ) . If one crashes, the other follows. Reasons? Evaluations? MIKE SHELLER: I agree with you, I do NOT WANT a crash, but neither did I want to lose some of my hair...I can stop neither, I have a distinct bald spot.

2BRO2: You're falling asleep in class again! Wake up lad! To the posting board.! You boys in the back, what's the problem? Mr. Eldorado, are you picking on the little lads again? Who's that big bruiser with you today? Your cousin from where? Oh my, Oh my

Prof -- What in the H__L are you talking about? Oh, I see, You're from Yale and that's as clear as you can get! Never mind. I understand.

Prof -- All in jest.
Goodnight all.

Prof ( tap/tap ) :
2BRO2: You're falling asleep in class again! Wake up lad! To the posting board.!

_______________________________________________________________________


Ok, ok, sorry. I was off elsewheres for a spell, metaphysics to be
exact. I'll try my hand at the ever popular prediction. I predict future
market valuations are difficult to predict because the conditions forming
those valuations are not at presently in existence.

IN Russia vee uz hands, den vash in Volga; trink water from river vit many nutrients and taste like Zhit.
Vee save many trees fur kut down to zell to China.
Zoviets big greenies under Red Star.

Next week the charts say gold and silver are setting themselves up for a BIG fall. TA sees wedges and channels for gold and a Major reversal for silver happening last Thursday. Nighty night, turn out the light! You have been waiting for gold to go under 317? If it does not happen this week it WILL happen the next. Charts don't lie forever. Let's see where we will find support. 300?? 275?? 250?? Hmmmmmmmmmmm

Help, help!! The gold is falling!!

Sorry, but was just too funny to NOT repost:

The Sultan of Brunei, the world's richest man, waded into
stock markets in Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the
Philippines, buying hundreds of millions of pounds of shares in
an effort to stop the regional collapse. Dealers said he bought
more than 185m of Singapore dollars to try to protect that
currency. Several Asian governments were also heavy buyers
of their currencies and equities.

KLUNK!

For somebody who made so much money, LurkingGBug sure does
seem mad. Maybe he didn't really quit the market yet. : )

Anyway, my beef - LurkingGBug is perfectly willing to use some
"measurements" of value, i.e. "the market is overvalued by 20%",
said measurements having been discovered by some Puetz, Grant,
Greenspan in the distant past.

But he ridicules today's equivalent efforts to discover
causual relationships.

I, for one, find it extremely hard to believe that everything
worth knowing has already been discovered. Heck, that's the
BASIS of value for the 21st century - the ability to discover
partial or hidden causual relationships.

I, too, am kind of flattered that LGB has lumped me in with
Puetz and Sheller. I don't write a newsletter. Heck, I don't
even tell my few friends what to do with their money. It
wouldn't be very libertarian of me, would it? : )

I *do* know that I wouldn't want to base my decisions on the
assumption that I'm getting good information these days. : )

Asia stocks mixed. Dollar strong again. December gold up 50 cents.

Mike Sheller: When I said gold was a terrible investment these last 15 years, I was referring to buy and hold investing compared with buy and hold in the stock market. Obviously many traders ( myself included ) made a lot of money on the shorter-term swings.

Interesting. Somebody, probably Donald, posted an article on the
"huge" tax revenues flooding into Uncle Sam. So, I decided to
check on the Treasury's version of the Federal Deficit, and LO
AND BEHOLD!!


http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm


We've broken out of the stagnant trading pattern for the past
few months! In the first three months of the fiscal year,
the Federal Deficit was up over $120B. Annualize that out. : )

But, *mysteriously*, massive tax revenues flooded in, keeping
the total down. But now, during August, we have another sudden
reversal. : ) Deficit up decisively in Aug - $37B increase in
27 days. : )

The onslaught of a "recession" would, *presumably*, shrink down
tax revenues and balloon the Deficit. August looks good. : )

I still say the numbers for the past six months are faked somehow. : )

BTW, we reach "maximum" Debt level again at $5.6T. Should be
an interesting circus in Washington, unless they just pass a
new limit circumspectly. : )

WHO CARES: Yes, I posted that story. It was about the debate of what to do with the money, pay debt down or have a tax cut.

Donald - ah, good, you're on-line, just like always. You wouldn't
mind reposted that Deficit URL, would you? Or the time/date?

I can' find it, I been looking for about thirty minutes. I'd
like to compare the newsarticle to the Treasury site. ; ) I've
discovered the most interesting things that way.

WHO CARES: Those banks were broke by the today standards in 1993, they may be broke today. We had many broken banks in operation under FDIC management during the 1989-1991 period. The Bank for International Settlements, which acts as the supervisor of the central banks around the world, established new standards for international banking. If you can't meet them they toss you out of the club now. They did not do that before but they set a deadline to meet the new standards. They have a site. I will post it for you in a few minutes.

Donald - I've been tracking the Deficit, on and off, for, er,
almost four years, sometimes on a weekly basis. It's been...

*interesting, to say the least. For instance, when the CURRENT
1st quarter deficit came in over $120B, I figured it was a portent
of recession. In one of my news articles, though, they mentioned
how DECEMBER'S Deficit was actually a SURPLUS, in fact, it was
MORE of a SURPLUS than LAST YEAR'S December SURPLUS.

Now. I also happen to have the Treasury report for LAST YEAR'S
DECEMBER deficit. And guess what? It ain't a surplus. It was
recorded as a $15B deficit.

Since the "government shutdown", there are all kinds of flakey
things like that now. I used to be able to track the monthly
deficit pretty closely, but now it varies all over the place.

And I get hokey explanations about "heavy increase in tax
revenues". Like, for this year, it was supposed to be an
"extra $65B" that just floated in. I have a problem in this,
since I and my wife paid LESS this year ( and THIS year, I get
about $10K in writeoffs, not to mention our loss of income : ) ) ,
but anyway.

Try calculating the amount that 120 million taxpayers would have
to have "paid extra" this year, to produce $65B in new revenues.

Then try calculating using 60 million taxpayers, since about 1/2
the population falls into the neutral zone of +/- a few hundred
dollars.

Then try calculating using 30 million taxpayers, because a fair
number of people got REFUNDS, not payments. : )

BASLE COMMITTEE ON BANKING SUPERVISION
BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS,
CH-4002 BASLE

PRESS STATEMENT

The Basle Committee on Banking Supervision, with the endorsement of
the central bank Governors of the Group of Ten countries, is today
releasing for consultation the Basle Core Principles for effective banking
supervision. This document establishes a set of twenty-five basic
Principles which the Basle Committee believes must be in place for a
supervisory system to be effective. Comments are invited by 16th June
1997.

The Basle Core Principles have been drawn up by the Basle Committee
in close collaboration with the supervisory authorities in fifteen emerging
market countries and have benefited from broad consultation with many
other supervisory authorities throughout the world.

The Principles represent the basic elements of an effective supervisory
system. They are comprehensive in their coverage, addressing the
preconditions for effective banking supervision, licensing and structure,
prudential regulations and requirements, methods of ongoing banking
supervision, information requirements, formal powers of supervisors and
cross-border banking.

The Basle Core Principles are intended to serve as a basic reference for
supervisory and other public authorities worldwide to apply in the
supervision of all the banks within their jurisdictions. Following due
consultation, supervisory authorities throughout the world will be invited
to make a formal endorsement of the Core Principles, not later than
October 1998. Endorsement will include an undertaking to review
current supervisory arrangements against the Principles and to set a
time-table for addressing any material deficiencies. The speed with which
changes can be introduced will vary, depending on whether the
supervisory authorities already possess the necessary statutory powers.
Where legislative changes are required, national legislators will be
requested to give urgent consideration to the changes necessary to
ensure that the Principles can be applied in all material respects.

In parallel with the Basle Core Principles, the Basle Committee will also
shortly release for information a three-volume Compendium of its
existing recommendations, guidelines and standards. This has been
prepared in order to supplement the Principles, which contain
crossreferences to the Compendium documents where appropriate.

The text of the Principles can be obtained from the BIS Web Site on the
Internet at http://www.bis.org with effect from 9th April, from national
supervisory authorities or from the Basle Committee Secretariat at the
Bank for International Settlements. The Compendium will be available
later in April.

9th April 1997

Donald - the Japanese banking standards I'm referring to DID
reference the BIS. I have an article from a banking magazine,
well, no, dang it, I don't have anymore. Must have been in '93,
about the failure of Japanese banks to meet international
requirements at Nikkei 13,000.

I would *really* like for the number to be 17,000, and I wouldn't
be surprised if they've played stock purchase games to fix their
balance sheets, though.

That would mean wholesale panic at 17,000. If you will remember
the low-point of the Nikkei, it was *always* kept about 13,000.

I kept watching it, night after night, waiting for Match Point,
but it never came. The Japanese government never let it happen.

"Tax dollars are flowing into the Treasury so fast"
http://www.usnews.com:80/usnews/issue/970908/8glas.htm

Ah, ah, I see. These are NEW standards. Heck, what is wrong
with these guys, they're out of step. Everybody is LOWERING
capital requirements to keep the game going.

Yo, NSA, get on the line to Greenspan. SOMEBODY needs to
clue these BIS guys into the game. : )

WHO CARES: All the BIG CB Chairpersons sit on the BIS Board of Directors including Alan Greenspan.

Thanks, I was hoping the article might reference some real numbers.

Foolish, I guess. The great majority of the media no longer use
the real numbers, just the fake ones. According to the Treasury
site, the real deficit for fiscal '96 is currently at $200B,
with one month left ticking. A far cry from "$34B".

Everyone will be sitting around, scratching their heads, when we
have a "budget surprlus" of $250B, while the Debt grows by $500B
per year. I eagerly await this. : )

Oh, you can NOT be serious. Why are they raising the capital
requirements, then?

That doesn't make any sense. Oh. Oh,ohoh, wait a minute.

Yes, yes, it DOES make sense if they're trying to restrict
all that money they've created from ENTERING the real economy.

There ya go. Raise capital requirements. But how does that
affect... wait a minute. Okay, they RAISE capital requirements,
we get the DE-multiplier effect as total loans shrink, right?

Somehow, this does NOT seem like a good idea to me. Why not
just put margin requirements on bond redemptions? Total loan
shrinkage could blow up the whole system.

WHO CARES: You are correct. I also recall the number at 13,000 some time ago, that was a Japanese number. They also set the new number which was actually 17,500. I don't know why they lifted their own hurdle. It could be some inside Japan banking politics. Some powerful bank may be looking for an excuse to put one or two particular rival banks out of the cross border banking business. Businessmen can be bastards.

WHO CARES: You are forcing me to think and I am still just waking up. I wonder if the 13,000 number is the point where ALL Japanese banks fail to meet the standard. The 17,500 number is the point where the weakest ones start to drop off?

The Japanese banks might have sold shares bought at the 13,000 level,
at the market levels of 20K, recorded the transaction as a profit
to boost their income statements, then re-purchased at 20K to
satisfy government "mandates".

Yes, I remember the 13K number being the "point of total
banking failure". Now that you mention it, that banking
article had a breakdown of Nikkei values for Japanese ten
largest banks, and the AVERAGE was 13K, yup, that's right.

I remember, 17K was the "entry region". : ) There were one
or two banks with low exposures, in the 11K and 12K regions.

So we're agreed? At 13K, Japan goes boom? : )

I have a theory I've played with for years. According to Davidson,
the emergence of Japan should have ellipsed us as the hegemonic
power. Okay. I can see that. But suppose we are actually looking
at a double-whammy. A partial shift to Japan, followed by a
RETURN of hegemonic power to the U.S?

That would necessitate

i ) shift of manufacturing to Japan
ii ) blow-up of Japanese stock market
iii ) shift of manufacturing back to U.S.
iv ) blow-up of U.S. stock market.


It's just an idea I've been toying with since 93 or so.

The U.S. has followed Davidson's model to a surprising degree.
He likened the U.S.'s role to England, post-Depression, and
the only thing that hasn't really worked right now is the huge
run-up in the NYSE in the past three years.

Donald - do you have a real-time, dedicated connection to Kitco
that rings a bell every time there's a posting? : )

*I* finally have to get some sleep. Bye.

JOHN WETTERAU: Be sure to find the post by Who Cares at September 2, 00:45. He has found some specifics on the Mexican bailout and "repayment"

WHO CARES: OK, I can agree to that. At 13,000 on the Nikkei only two banks in Japan will be in the cross-border banking business under the BIS standards to take effect in October, 1998.

Here is something to think about. The Nikkei was 39,900 on January 3, 1990. Our 1929 Depression lopped 90% off the value of stocks. If the same happened to Japan you can expect Nikkei 4,000. Only the top part of Mt. Fuji shows above the waterline on the day that happens.

DONALD...I am amazed at the links that come through this site. Your BIS/Davies sites are very informative. Those central banks are just waiting in line to join up to be the latest cross border banking buddy. I love how the BIS deals with the coming world e-money situation. Was'nt it Marx that coined the phrase about the West selling the Russians the rope for the hanging? Maybe he wasn't visionary enough. I think someone wants to hang the world. In any case, I really appreciate the informative discussions.

Major European rally underway, British pound and Australian dollar very weak.

WATCHER: That Davies site had a great piece on electronic banking and the loss of government control over money. A week at Kitco is better than a year at college.

China says gold demand is outstripping supply and is encouraging miners to increase output.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/02/z0009_57.html

Brazil faults Asia problems for recent market weakness.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/01/z0009_125.html

Mining official charges Australia used gold sale proceeds to bail out Thailand.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/02/z0009_49.html

"Dollarization" of foreign countries comes under attack at conference.
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970901/business/stories/economy_1.html

CHINA GOLD...with their labor costs being what they are in China ( I think top union miner's get $.30/hour ) it won't be long before gold does hit $250...I GUESS the Chinese want to encourage outside investors! At $250 they'll be the only ones making big money in gold...hey, maybe they are the ones "manipulating" gold down. It just took them a long time to get around to it. The markets in tennis shoes and pirate CD's were just so much better for them....gulp!

Australian dollar hits two year low as bank stocks weaken.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/02/anz_cde_n_1.html

Aussie RBA announces huge profit. Guess where the money came from, and see Donald's previous post to see where it went.

http://www.afr.com.au/content/970902/banking/banking1.html

WHO CARES: ( 2:53 ) Your "Fraudian" analysis ( lovely Fraudian "slip" ) probes deep. There are even bodies and forms of knowledge from the past that have yet to be properly retreived and/or explained. That will happen in coming years. Very often the "new" is just another perceived angle upon the "old.." As for analysis, I myself tend to be Jung at heart.

Japan estimates bad bank loans at 27.9 trillion yen.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/02/z0009_2.html

Good morning Mike. Fraudian slip? Isn't that what Marlena Dietrich wore in those sexy old movies?

RBA defends itself on gold sales.

http://www.smh.com.au:80/daily/content/970902/business/business8.html

Devaluations go better with Coke!
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/31/smgbf_z00_1.html

Single Mexican bank fraud to cost taxpayers 1 billion. ( The story doesn't say what country the taxpayers live in. Heh,heh. )
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/30/cci_y0004_1.html

December gold up a buck despite strong dollar, but Joberg still down slightly.

JAPANESE BAD DEBT...The headline says it's a done deal but futher down he says "I think we can , I tthink we can..." If our real estate market is any indicator here in Hawaii then the Japanese still have a long way to go...More than 2 years. One developer here is only $9 milliom in arrears on his property taxes. Want more?...another hotel owner just GAVE his hotel back to Bisop Estate because he couldn't pay the ground lease rent. That's like like turning in your fully paid for Lexus because the gas was too expensive. And these guys ( and too many others to tell about ) are here in the boondocks on the the big island. The really big boys do there business elsewhere...my Japanese green card buddies don't sound as confidant as the politicos do.

Watcher. I spent my childhood in Hilo. My parents bought a very big house on a couple of acres for $17 000 ( back in 1955 ) . Are you trying to tell me that prices have gone up since I was last there! ( We left in 1960 when the tsunami wiped out the place ) .

There's this woman that had gained a few pounds.

She squeezed into a pair of her old blue jeans.

Before the joke, the formula [Falling dollar=dumping of
dollars by foreign interests=flooding the US market with
dollars=inflation=gold boom]--is there a flaw in this
formula? Now the short joke

Wondering if the added weight was noticeable, she asked
her husband "Honey, do these jeans make me look like the
side of the house?"

"No, dear, not at all," he replied. "Our house isn't blue."

Looks like Donald was raring ta go after the "long weekend"....Nikkei up 258.22 ( 1.44% ) ...Hang Seng up 309.68 ( 2.31% ) ...European stox also up..German Dax up 59.10; London up 30.8....ect...ect...U.S. Dollar strong up .87 @ 121.65 versus Yen....

Sorry about the last post. It seems that the formula I concocted found its way and cut the joke in half. Hopefully it will be readable nonetheless

Just got this from my daughter, and thought it wise to show y'all!


IMPORTANT!!!!
#1
Yesterday a client opened an E-mail that had the subject heading of
ao4free.com. Within seconds of opening it, a window appeared and began
to display all files that were being deleted. The user immediately shut
down the computer, but it was too late.

This virus wiped all out. It ate the Anti-Virus Software that comes with
the Windows '95 Program along with F-Prot AVS. Neither was able to detect
it.

Please be careful and send this to as many people as possible, so maybe
this new virus can be eliminated.

#2
This information was received this morning from IBM, please share it with
anyone that might access the Internet:

If anyone receives e-mail entitled "PENPAL GREETINGS!" please delete it
WITHOUT READING IT!! This is a warning for all Internet users - there is a
dangerous virus propagating across the Internet through an e-mail message
entitled "PENPAL GREETINGS!"

DO NOT DOWNLOAD ANY MESSAGE ENTITLED "PENPAL GREETINGS"!!
This message appears to be a friendly letter asking you if you are
interested in a penpal, but by the time you read the letter, it is too
late. The "trojan horse" virus will have already infected the boot sector
of your hard drive, destroying all of the data present. It is a
self-replicating virus, and once the message is read, it will
AUTOMATICALLY!!!!! forward itself to anyone whose e-mail address is
present in YOUR mailbox!

This virus will DESTROY your hard drive, and holds the potential to DESTROY
the hard drive of anyone whose mail is in your IN BOX, and whose mail is in
their in box and so on. If this virus keeps getting passed, it has the
potential to do a great deal of damage to computer networks worldwide!!!!

George: While the dollar is up the worldwide currency problems spell the end of the worldwide dollar based system. The dollar is up much the just as all resources ran back to Germany in WWII as each puppet state fell leading to the ultimate collapse of the system. By analogy, today the money is going back to the base of the system ie the dollar. In reality the worldwide currency problems are an attack on the worldwide dollar based system ( this is why there is the ludivrous cheerleading re our economy ) . Without the worldwide dollar based system NAFTA and GATT are basically shells. Remember labor has always been cheaper in Latin America and Asia only by establishing the worldwide dollar based reserve currency status in addition to the treaties could Labor be emasculated. The demise of the world wide dollar based system will make overseas investment in the dollar based economies of Asia and South America very risky once again. Think of the implications. Gold may rise even as the dollar rises because the reason for the dollar rise indicates the whole system is under siege.

Good morning Ted. It looks like we both survived the long weekend. Indeed it looks like a strong day in the paper markets, but will it be able to sustain itself. I don't think so for more than a couple of days.
Hot here. Muggy too. Traffic light. No smog. No, Dorothy, this is not LA.

Board member of RBA, Mr. Hugh Morgan approved of the RBA gold fire
sale. He is also the Managing Director of WMC. WMC increaced
their forward selling considerably midway through the RBA selloff.
Hugh Morgan claims that in no way did his position as WMC Managing
Director conflict with his duties on the board of the RBA. It
just appears that way. He claims that the information he had at
hand was not passed onto WMC employees. Well, he has let everyone
down! Copper price slump and negative sentiment about his role
on the RBA has trashed this stocks price. Peaking at $A8.80 on 23
of June, WMC has bombed to $A6.90. This idiot thinks he is above
all relevant scrutiny and the RBA secret dealings stink too much
of his involvement.

THATS ALL FOLKS

Reify and all: It is not possible for email to erase files on the hard drive. It is possible for attachments to email to do so. Delete unrecognizable email as junk if you like, but be aware that only macros in word processing and spreadsheet files and "gifts" of executable files like games, etc. can contain harmful code. This email scare has been tripping around the internet for several weeks now. It reminds me of the old "scare" that atheists were going to stop all religious broadcasts. The petitions for that one are still circulating.

Mornin Tort! ...66 degrees and foggy here....Reify: Thankx for the warning!!!...S+P futures up 3.80

The Aug. NAPM report at 1000ET. should give us some idea which way the market wii move today. ( Forecast: 58.0% )
Later today at 1440ET. the Redbook Weekly Retail Sales Report out.

The Aug. NAPM report at 1000ET. should give us some idea which way the market will move today. ( Forecast: 58.0% ) .
Later today at 1440ET. the Redbook Weekly Retail Sales Report out.

SPEED: Those athiests will rot in...uh...ummm??? hmmm!!

EBN at 8.15ET. US 30YR-Yield Up .017 to 6.625

Prophetic Economist George S. Cole foresees a lackluster gold performance until greenback tanks. Once dollar turns south & short interest remains high, an explosive up move is a good bet:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/cole831.html

In the latest issue of The Privateer, Bill Buckler quotes from a recent Greenspan speech in which the Fed chairman states that currency is "a non-interest bearing claim on the government". As the Captain points out, this is an interesting admission by Greenspan. What he doesnt point out, however, is that Greenspans statement is not true.

Most new currency is issued by private banks and is therefore a liability of the banks, or a claim on the banks. The government guarantees deposits in banks, however the only way the government could ever make good on this guarantee is to create more money. As new dollars are created, the value of the dollars already in existence is correspondingly reduced. The governments guarantee is worthless and hence a dollar does not represent a claim on the government.

In actual fact, because dollars can be created arbitrarily and without limit, a dollar is effectively a claim on the wealth of the nation. As new dollars are created, the savings accumulated by the productive members of society are diminished.

Later...Milhouse

Accolades to Milhouse at Gold-Eagle for defining that much abused word "Inflation" properly, and tracking the 9% increase in US Money Supply over past year ( 1976-80 averaged 11.4% ) .
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse831.html

MILHOUSE: Just writing my last post about you as you were posting yours! What a wonderful chance to compliment you in "virtualperson." If this means I'm getting psychic, I'll be off to the track today.
Better yet, I might switch to tea!

S+P futures up 5.0

WW- Your 07:38 Post
It let me look at the whole picture in a possitive way I didn't see before. Very Good Post, Thank You.

Talkin head @ CNBC just said their futures # was wrong and S+P futures only up 2.25....

Tort and the gang :

Each morning, I've found that you have had wonderful jokes. Most of the time ( the non-lawyer ones ) I have heard in some format or other over the last many years. Some were/are just wonderful and a delight to hear yet again but it poses a problem. I'm running out of jokes that I could possibly post, as you keep on "scooping" me each morning. Well, I've decided to post one and only one in the hope that you won't remember it before me this time. My very last joke post on Kitco is ..... ( if you've heard it, laugh anyways! )

There was a farm family who had a weekend visitor. The farmer was giving the cooks tour to his friend when they came upon a three legged pig. It was a sorry looking thing with scars over it's back and as mentionned, only three legs.
The visitor, upon seeing the pig, asked the farmer what happened to the pig to have caused the injuries.

"Oh, that's the very best pig I've ever owned ... damn thing saved my families life last year!"

"How so?"

"Well, we were all asleep one night and a fire broke out in the kitchen stove. The smoke was filling the house in a hurry and that damn pig really showed she loved us. Damn if the pig didn't go to the patio door, kick it and break the glass, which came shattering down, and then rushed up to the bedrooms and woke us up with the greatest of noise. We couldn't find our son because of the smoke, but that pig dragged my son down stairs and out the door. Saved our lives he did !"

"Geez, what a story ... Is that why the pig lost it's leg, kicking down the glass door and saving everyone ? "

"Nope .... I figure when a pigs that good and helpful, you don't eat it all at once ! "

TTFN

Good one! and it hasn't even been posted here before....I think....

TED -- Good morning! Looks like the bond boys are a little anxious this morning. Long rates are rising. I wonder who is selling and why??? What me worry about currencies? Never! :- )

Hopefully any stock rally today will drag the mining issues up a little, at least those in the major indexes ( S&P 500 ) . BBL.

Front, it was one of my favorites. You scooped me big time on this one.

Front, it was one of my favorites. You scooped me big time on this one.

WW: You say you are a lawyer, but you sure sound like an economist or investment stategist.

December gold up 20 cents; Joberg down 0.4%. The stocks lead and bullion follows. Unfortunately both look lower before before turning up again.

FRONT: I know that farmer, he lived in Ohio near the Indiana border and was not too bright. After the fire he thought he should take a few days off to set himself right. He decided to go visit his cousin in Indiana whom he hadn't seen in a number of years. While his cousin lived only 40 miles away it was in another time zone and our farmer, not being too bright, didn't know much about the way the world worked. He arrived at the bus station to buy his ticket and asked the ticket agent what time the bus left for Aurora, the town 40 miles away where his cousin lived. The agent looked up the schedule and replied, "9 AM". The farmer asked then when he could expect to arrive in Aurora. The agent checked the schedule once more and replied, "9 AM". Well the answer got the farmer a bit confused so he said thank you and stepped away from the ticket window to think it over. Figuring the agent must not have understood his question he returned to the window and asked the questions over again. The agent of course gave the same answer as before, then asked the farmer "would you like to buy a ticket?". The farmer replied, "No Sir! I surely don't want no ticket on that bus! But, if you don't mind, I'd like to stand around for awhile and watch that mother take off!"

Donald, Who Cares: Thanks for the bailout info. Whelan seems a good source.

Mornin Panda....Bonds down but stox soarin ( Dow up 62 ) ....let the good times roll....all is right with the world.....Am off to Sydney to see if I can get some estimates on building supplies ( in person ) as they won't return my calls...and this in an area that continually WHINES about how depressed their economy is...Wonder why??...duh....Unions and BIG government rule here.....and it shows!...WW: come on up and see your UTOPIA...hahaha....the overwhelming majority sittin on their FAT asses waitin fer the Gov'ment ta give em another hand-out.....BBL dudes...

Anybody, having a read on the NPM this morning ( 10AM ) , would appreciate your posting it.

With Churchillian clarity & logic Guest Guru Milhouse analyzes Alan Greenspans "secret weapon to ensure economy doesnt dive. M-3 accelerated growth is keystone to higher GOLD prices:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse831.html

Confirmation on Yahoo morning NY preciuous metals report indicated that indeed an official CB was a seller of gold in August - as we deduced, and the amount was just under 1 Million ozs. ( 31 tonnes @31,500oz / tonne ) possibly $320+/- Million proceeds. Interesting comment was that NY gold short position didn't budge after the announcement.

Cheers

Confirmation on Yahoo morning NY preciuous metals report indicated that indeed an official CB was a seller of gold in August - as we deduced, and the amount was just under 1 Million ozs. ( 31 tonnes @31,500oz / tonne ) possibly $320+/- Million proceeds. Interesting comment was that NY gold short position didn't budge after the announcement.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/02/y0023_z00_7.html

Cheers

Roebear -- Checkout this site http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/newsroom/snapshot.html?source=core/dbc

Also check headlines at;

http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/newsroom/headlines.html?SOURCE=core/dbc

Then look at the Dow! Right now it's up 166.7 and climbing! This would be an amazing reversal if we closed DOWN on the day! Who knows???

Vronsky:

Thanks for posting the link to "US Money Supply and the Demand For Gold". I think this article answers a question I've had for some time. For about the last year I receive at least twice a week and offer in the mail and over the phone to refinance my house. The last offer I received offered to refinance at 135% of the appraised value. I kept wondering how they could do this. Well the previous article pretty much answers my question. They know that inflation is going to be pretty serious, so by the time they foreclose that house will have appreciated 35%. Also that have the fed to buy at a discount any none performing loans they have. Anyway thanks for the clarity.

Looks like stocks cranking and gold tanking. Which was it the Russky gold sale or following or both?
U.S. BONDS:

Treasury bonds eliminated initial losses after an important measure of activity in the
manufacturing sector declined in August.

The National Association of Purchasing Management said its August index of manufacturing
activity declined to 56.8 from July's 58.6. Most economists had looked for a level of 58.0. A
figure above 50 correlates with an expanding manufacturing economy, while a number below 50
relates to a contracting level of economic activity. The prices-paid component of the report,
watched avidly by the bond market for signs of inflationary pressures, edged up to 53.8 from
53.6.

The 30-year Treasury advanced 2/32, to yield 6.612 percent. The 10-year note rose 5/32, to
yield 6.339 percent. The short bill fell 3 basis points to 5.07 percent discount.

In the mortgage-backed market, 30-year currents advanced 1/32.

Back at the Titanic, as for gold stocks, well, if you can't beat em, hedge'em? I see my shoveful has added to the fire quite nicely, soon time to go up on deck for that smoke and lifeboat inspection, maybe before 14:40 Eastern ( Redbook figures ) ? Comments

"that" should have read "they" near the end of my last post.

Panda, thanks, I just found my bookmark for that site, come back on their you have it. Did I get it from you before? Your read on the market seems to agree with mine. Bad Redbook figures could tank the market ( for today ) . In any case, as perhaps you can tell from my enigmatic posts, I took a flyer on the market, am plus already just trying to time my jump out. I did not sell any gold stocks, their time is coming. Your comments would be appreciated.

Don't know about the rest of you Kitcoites, but I'm not happy with the new set-up. I'm limited to reading only those posts since my last check.
if I'd like to review, or read more I can't. That isn't good Bart.
Far be it from me to complain or look a gift horse in the mouth, but if we're going to commmunicate let's communicate with fewer limitations.

Otherwise I only wish to state that the new kids on the block should not be surprised with present action in the markets. you've been warned by the pros, like oldman and RJ, and if you're in it for the long run, don't panic, buy on dips, I mean golds.

Once this story unfolds, as George C. has told y'all many times, the market will tank and gold will shine. Patience, they say, is a virtue,
HOW TRUE!!!!

Reify: Your daughter and you are the victims of an internet hoax. You can read about this and other virus hoaxes at http://www.kumite.com/myths/ , where you will read that the hoax "appears to be an attempt to kill an e-mail chain letter by claiming that it is a self starting Trojan that destroys your hard drive and then sends copies of itself to everyone whose address in in your mailbox. Reading an e-mail message does not run it nor does it run any attachments, so this Trojan must be self starting. Aside from the fact that a program cannot start itself, the Trojan would also have to know about every different kind of e-mail program to be able to forward copies of itself to other people. This warning is totally a hoax." We've got to applaud all attempts to kill chain letters -- except those that spread panic.

MILHOUSE.....Excellent article over at GOLD EAGLE !!!! ALL...If you haven't read this one, you need to do so right away....

TED...You don't look any older....

All:

Amidst todays doom and gloom for the precious metals markets there is an interesting change that is worth noting. The lease rate for one month silver has jumped about 50 basis points and is now nearing 2%. This expression of tightness in the physical market bears watching. Whether it is due to an increasing appetite of the shorts or a physical accumulation by a long is unknown but either case is bullish.

Gold is holding up fairly well given all the negative background news of today. Central bank sales, plus massive strength in the dollar should be a recipe for disaster but so far the damage has been contained. In fact, gold is rising is every major currency except the buck.

On the inflation / deflation question, it is interesting to note that the GSCI is higher today even in the face of the surging dollar. The GSCI denominated in DM, JY or Sterling is rallying strongly. In Baht, Ringit, Rupiah etc. it is going ballistic. Sooner or later as our trade balances weaken we will be forced to play the devaluation game ourselves. It is likely that the South American countries will be the next in the devaluation contagion because their dollar linkage will cost them dearly in their trade with Europe and Asia. This will eventually filter through to our backyard.

For those with a taste for the exotic, natural resource companies in Southeast Asia may represent some opportunity. Currency devaluation has the doublely positive effect of increasing prices and decreasing labor costs. In an environment where the stock markets in general have been beaten up pretty badly there may be some nuggets to be had. I'll post some names when my research has gone further.

With the midterm elections coming up next year, if the Fed is going to induce a 'cleansing' slowdown so that 98 can be a year of accelerating prosperity, they must act soon. If not they will be forced to keep the pedal to the metal for all of next year because the political consequences of a contracting economy during a congressional election year will be unacceptable to the powers that be. With the dollar surging its going to be extremely difficult for them to pull the trigger.

DONALD. Yes CEF can change the distribution of their assets. In fact you were not that far from the truth. The current distribution favors gold as they have US$42M worth of gold and US$28M worth of silver, but it is only because silver went down much more than gold in the last 15 years. Their average market cost is US$55M for gold and US$62M for silver. These numbers are from the most recent quaterly and seems to indicate that they went into silver at higher prices. I find the costs a bit high as it would gives an average cost above US $9 for silver and above $400 for Gold... Could be as they have been accumulating for years.

It is facinating to read the many hyposthesis which are posted here with regard to a trigger, the aftermath and opportunities in the debris. Does it really matter? There are fundamental problems in this system which will inevitably lead to its collapse. The result will be an incredibly difficult period for the world and its nations. International trade will diminish. There may well be wars and famine as well as political turmoil. I wonder whether any of us will be crowing or strutting when this comes about. Let's not be callous regarding the many poor who will be crushed in this fiasco. It is important to keep a sense of perspective in the daily flux of information. It is possible that, one day, we may be asking for help from those we have blasted in our arrogance. So be kind and generous today. There is no loss in it.

Am VERY happy today. Sold my Jubilee shares for 54 cents, up from 18 cents. ie. a 300% return in ONE day. Not bad eh? Big nickel discovery.
Shares may go up further, but I need the loot now. Referred to in
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970903/business/business2.html
( in second last paragraph ) Also info about Asian marktet/concerns etc.

Well said, Allen. Following up on your post, I believe it is
incumbent upon us not only to provide financially for ourselves
in a worst case scenario but as well to have a food and goods
storage program in place if the need should arise. We should
even consider stocking more than what we need for ourselves
and families because there will surely be those in need who
will be coming to us for assistance during any tough times.
MRE's, canned goods ( make sure to periodically eat/replenish
these ) , and Don McAlveny's food storage system are good means
of getting started. Don't forget to buy and replenish distilled
water also. Not a doom and gloomer, just an old "Boy Scout".
Unfortunately, guns and ammo for protection/preservation should
also be included.

Stocks soaring as expected. But gold and gold stocks holding up considerably better than anticipated given today's surge in the Dow and the dollar. A good omen for the future!

Dow probably will get to the 8000 area or a little above in this move, but new highs not likely.

Japan spooked by market slowdown.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970902/world/world1.html
Cop a load of the bad debt these Japanese banks are STILL carrying.
Harry Schultz has been anti Japan for some time now. Here's why....

Australia feels Asian heat
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970902/market/markets4.html

The rich in Australia let the good times roll...
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970902/feature/feature1.html
Yet another warning sign that the end is nigh ( again )

Reify - If you want to see posts past the end of your last session, just hit "submit". I think this will bring up all posts for the current day. Beyond that, you will have to change the search date before you hit submit. At least this system works for me.

I find the current system to be OK.

a return to "Buy and Hold" for the "General" and "Allen". : )

Signed,

LurkingPaperBug.

Looking at the 24-hour charts, I find it very curious that all 4 metals got hit at the same time by a significant, but not traumatic amount. It makes me very suspicious that this is just a test to see how the markets are responding after the long week-end. I doubt these moves indicate anything regarding changes in short term trends, and fully expect prices to recover by the end of the day.

Well Donald, That bus was so fast, it continued down the road not noticing that a tractor trailor carrying cars had broken down. Apparently, the driver's headlights had blown a fuse but he had an answer. He climbed up the the car that was loaded above the main cab and turned on its lights. Later that evening, he was driving down the farmers brothers road when the brother, who was riding a bicycle to go and meet his brother at the station, came upon the tracktor trailor carrying the cars and immediately veered off the road into a side ditch. The driver, fearing the bicyclist might be hurt, ran over to him and asked if he was ok? Oh yea, came the reply. "So why did you drive right off the road when I was approaching you"? asked the truck driver. "Well, I figured that if you were as wide as you were high, I was getting the hell out of the way!" Know him too?

TTFN

If the bad news is that gold stocks still have one more probe down left in 'em, then the GOOD news is that HM looks to be forming a potential head & shoulders bottom. If this materializes, the stardoctor prescribes a chunk at 13, or thereabouts, and then more at the upside breakout through 14 1/2 down the road. This could turn into a classic inverse h&s bottom no-brainer.

DA, I find youre postings truly informative & timely please keep on posting,
thanks, Kev

It's like taking off on the first giant wave of your life. The ocean is ridden only with respect or you die. Shoot, just the paddle out keeps most on the beach. I've learned that when it looks overwhelming, it is good to go out with a few veterans ( watermen! ) .Then, when an outside grinder set comes thru, one has the comfort of looking over at the guy scratching for his life next to you! Aaaah!Experience is a wonderful thing. If indeed you live through it enough times one becomes "wise", not necessarily better, but certainly wiser.

Ag b@7:29: Is Hilo on the big island? I thought it got covered by lava back in '87. Oh, that's right, it's where all our gov't employees retired ( oops, I mean work ) . I meant, I HOPED it got covered by lava.Hawaii spends almost $6K per capita these days on state employees, more than 2x CALIF @$2,300.

..the problems of Thailand, Malasya & S. Korea are much bigger than Mexico's crisis...it's still in the early phases...
Korea has cut back protection for bankrupt
conglomerates after a battle of wills between the ailing
Kia Group and its creditor banks.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970903/world/world3.html

"THE COMING COMPETING CURRENCY DEVALUATIONS" - Dines reviews the spate of currency devaluations in Far-East. He aptly exposes Central Bank folly of increasing rates to defend their currency:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines830.html

Just some rambling thoughts - I watched the California real estate
bubble grow through 87 to 90. Real estate almost doubled in value,
while L.A. wages remained close to the national average.

Bust began in '90. What was the median age of baby boomers in '91?
Well, let's see. Boom peaked in 57-59. So, that's a median age
of 34-36. Yet the average age of a home buyer in L.A., at that
time, was over 37.

So. The bust began well before the bulk of buyers came into the
market. A large part of the bust was the exodus of people like
myself out of L.A.

There was an extreme leveraging effect from this, too. A relatively
small percentage of people leaving L.A. created a HUGE increase
in land prices in sparsely populated areas like Boise. House
prices here DOUBLED between 1990 ( when I arrived ) and 1994.

My point - there's a difference between the RATE OF CHANGE in
prices, and actual prices. I keep thinking about Bob Buckler's
graph that contrasts rate of money creation with rate of stock
price increase.

I imagine that if I could graph the California real estate market,
I could come up with two graphs like that. Rate of change in
prices, versus actual prices.

The rate of change in prices led the actual boomer purchases.
House prices in L.A. aren't even *close* to recovering, despite
an influx of immigrants, slowdown in outflow of long-time residents,
etc. House prices are even now at about 1/2 of where they peaked,
seven years ago. Where, oh, where is the "boomer effect", now that
the median boomer is SLIGHTLY PAST the average age of first-time
buyer?

Who is to say that the rate of change in the purchase of stocks by
the "baby boomers" will not look the same?

I can just imagine what a *leveraging* effect of current paper into
gold would look like.

General - I'm not sure that storage of goods or use of arms is wise ( a gun begets a bigger gun ) . Certainly one would not want to look better off then one's neighbor. There is something to be said for enduring along with everyone else. My sense is that there will be shortages and price increases. Unemployment will be high. Generousity will be more precious than gold or silver.

...another sign...of not facing reality of ...it'll get worse as they've not diagnosed the real economic problem...which has caused the currency devaluation & stock collapse...

Dr Ling said the "traitors" also comprised analysts and writers who penned
negative versions of the Malaysian economic situation.

"These are the local writers who have been influenced by foreign editorials
criticising Malaysian economic policies for the recent stock market
downturn," said Dr Ling, adding that publications which employed these
writers should sack them.
http://www.jaring.my/star/current/02llbe.html

FLASH ! FLASH!
A Mexican embassy statement said that for the first six months of the year,
exports from Malaysia to Mexico grew 10 per cent compared with the
same period of 1996, while imports fell 1.5 per cent.
http://www.jaring.my/star/current/02mmmexic.html

Donald more cancellations...
TOKYO: A growing number of Japanese life insurance policyholders are
cancelling their contracts with Japan's 44 life insurance firms, alerted by the
April 25 collapse of Nissan Mutual Life Insurance Co, industry officials
said recently.

The combined value of promised insurance money of life insurance and
pension contracts cancelled by policyholders who had bought policies from
44 life insurers nationwide shot up 35 per cent in June from a year before
to 8.4 trillion yen ( RM201 billion ) , the officials said.
http://www.jaring.my/star/current/02insusoa.html

...interesting to note ''could swing the market back into negative mode."
The trend has changed!
Andy Smith, analyst at UBS, said the Russian sale news was unlikely to have the same impact as news of a central bank sale in
Australia announced Jly 4 when gold fell to 12-year lows. "There's only one of those kind of announcements a year," he said.

However, he said impressions that Russia was a net buyer would be quashed by the sale news, and that could swing the market
back into negative mode.

S&P - The S&P is starting the week on schedule ( 9/1 9:30 ) . In 1987 the first day bounce off the retest low, also a Monday, was up 3.4%. ( see yesterday's chart ) If today's market follows that pattern we should see a close on the SPU7 near 934. If you can't get the chart send me your e-mail and I'll send it direct.

A potent mix of cheap and easy money, clamoring demand and ballsy confidence is driving a boom in the real estate business
-- and making some players wonder whether the industry is about to repeat the excesses of the late 1980s.
Real estate, typically a cyclical industry, was late coming out of the recession, but it's since shot forward much faster than many
expected.
http://www.canoe.ca/FP/sep2_easymoneyh.html

Gold stocks holding up EXTREMELY WELL considering $1.70 drop in bullion, surging Dow, and strong dollar. Another day or two of this kind of action and the odds of significant further weakness will decline dramatically.

George Cole: "the odds of significant further weakness will decline dramatically." Lost the thread on this on. "Further weakness" of what?

Selby: Further significant weakness in gold stocks.

In an interview with Ron Insana, Barton Biggs of Morgan Stanley called today's action in the markets "a rally in a bear market".

Dow crashin....up 204...

George S Cole: Got it, thanks.

George and Puetz....It seems that everyone on this thread is bearish about the stock market and has predicted a crash or a substantial correction as soon as this retest is completed. ( Dow now at 238 and counting ) The thing that bothers me and I would appreciate everyone's opinion, is that over the last month or so, the news media as well as this forum has been comparing today's market with 1987 and 1929. On a
contrarian point of view, maybe this infatuation with 1987 and 1929
will not become a reality but, what if the market sky rockets into
an absurd top that will make even the bearish of the bears a bull?
After everyone is a bull then the sky collapses?

George Cole and Selby- I believe David Macrory has got it right!
We have seen the lows!

Barton Biggs said a rally in a BEAR market and it is hittin the fan in the east. [Maybe we ought to be buyin gold shares.]

Tally Ho

Slick: Believe it or not there were a few vocal bears around in the summers of 1929 and 1987. The argument that the market cannot go down big time as long as a single vocal bear remains is BOGUS.

Unlike Puetz, I am not predicting a crash although that is a real possibility. But I do maintain we are entering a BEAR MARKET that will take the Dow down AT LEAST 20% and probably considerably more. But the strong downside action will not commence until the dollar is routed and gold breaks out.

Dow up 257. Proof positive one can never underestimate the moron's belief in "them fun-duh-mentals."

I am going to have FUN!!!

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. ( MktNews ) - Continued economic weakness in Japan has the potential
to wreak further damage on that nation's beleaguered financial system, a former Japanese central
banker and current lawmaker said Friday.
Yoshio Suzuki, shadow finance minister for the New Frontier Party and a former executive
director of the Bank of Japan, said he is "concerned about the weak trend of the Japanese economy
that might undermine financial stability."
The process of unwinding Japanese banks' bad loans is "proceeding steadily" and the bad loan
problem is "not so serious at the moment," Suzuki told participants at a Kansas City Federal Reserve
Bank conference. "But if the macro-economy would get weaker and weaker, the bad loan problem
might trigger instability in the financial system again," he said.

One day a trend does not make.

We have seen the DJIA decrease from 8,300 to 7,623 ( -8.2% ) during the month of August. Since many 401k plans still only allow MONTHLY adjustment to allocations between investment vehicles, perhaps we are seeing some DIPPERS buying on the first trading day of September.

The NYSE and NASDAQ volume continues to be equivalent at 450-550M shares per trading day, regardless of the magnitude of index changes. I would expect more volume on volatile days. I would also expect more variability between these markets.

APH: The markets are following your script perfectly. What do your tea leaves tell about the rest of the week?

Panda, have you been busy at the market!; ) Had fun today holding gold stocks with right hand playing that nice wave up with the other. Too bad there are not many days when intuition, TA, and guts all line up together for me. Today was a nobrainer which is probably how I did OK: ) Your take on the market this week and gold? I agree with GSC.

Slick - It seems that P/E as a historical measure clearly indicates a top at 22 - 24:1 range. Also Dow to Gold is topped out, in a historical context. The senario you describe would be truly unique in our experience, culturally. The Japanese culture supported an astronomical P/E before things collapsed. Our culture has a lower herd quotient and so is less likely to rise much higher than in the past. Insanity could reign, though. In which case it might be best to stay out since it is uncharted territory with no way of knowing when the 'break point' might occure. ( Sorry, I know you were asking George, but I had to put my 2 cents in. )

NOMERCY: Thet post about Japanese Life Insurers is serious. I still have not seen that reported in the US press or the Japanese press. It appeared in London on August 6th, the Robert Metz newsletter later and now Malaysia. Japanese officials must be really pulling their hair out. The money is gone. U.S. Insurers would love to buy out a weak company and get their foot in the door. Barshefsky has been negotiating with them to allow the U.S. into that market. The problem is that the major US insurers are not in the best of condition either and they want to enter the market without having to pick up Japanese deadwood to do it.

Allen: Dow to Gold has not topped out in the historical sense. It is close though. The top , in 1966 was 28.61 ( using the monthly average ) . In this cycle the top is 26.2 ( using the spot gold price ) .

George and Allen, thanks for your insights. One interesting note,
after today's market close, many technical analysts on local business
news stations came out with euphoric "BUY SIGNALS" being generated
on their "MODELS" it will certainly be interesting how this mad dash
to jump aboard the DOWTANIC before she sets sail plays out over the next few weeks. Also, the XAU and HUI squeeked out on the plus side today.
Very interesting..

JACKSON HOLE, WYO. ( MktNews )
What Fed officials are unwilling to utter publicly, Andrew Crockett, general manager of the
"central banker's bank," the Bank for International Settlements, felt free to say, telling the Fed
conference he fears Wall Street might be experiencing a "bubble."
Jitters about the stock market may partly explain recent surges in the money supply, two Fed
officials said. But some fear money supply growth, in conjunction with strong credit demand and
slackening business credit terms and standards, may be a signal the Fed is being more accommodative
than it has heretofore thought by leaving the funds rate unchanged at 5.5% for the past five months.
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan made no direct reference to the recent behavior of the monetary
aggregates, but he had an interesting way of opening the conference. Because central banks can
produce monetary claims "without limit," monetary policy-makers must recognize that "if a central
bank produces too many, inflation will inexorably rise as will interest rates, and economic activity will
inevitably be constrained by the misallocation of resources induced by inflation," he said. "If it
produces too few, the economy's expansion also will presumably be constrained by a shortage of the
necessary lubricant for transactions."
The Fed chairman concluded that monetary authorities "must struggle continuously to find the
proper balance." It was not the first time this year Greenspan has called attention to the importance of
reining in the amount of credit the Fed supplies so as not to fuel what he called "excess demand."
It is too early to worry that M2 and M3 are proof the Fed is being overly accommodative, say Fed
officials, but some think it may be an indicative straw in the wind that will bear closer watching in
coming weeks and months.
Former Fed Governor Wayne Angell tried, as he has many times in the past, to interest current
Fed policy-makers in moving toward an "intra-day funds market," in which the Fed would allow the
funds rate to vary during the course of the day instead of pegging it once a day.
Angell argued this makes increasing sense now that the Fed has extended the hours of Fedwire
and is charging for daylight overdrafts and now that reserve requirements have become unbinding on
many institutions due to the utilization of sweep accounts.
Two policy-makers expressed bemused interest in Angell's proposal.
"It's a great idea if we could figure out how to do it," said one.
Another called it feasible. But Fed staffers indicated the concept is unlikely to be implemented any
time in the forseeable future.

I have a modest position in non-gold stocks, so was not unhappy about today's strong rise. But looking beyond the next few weeks, gold stocks and the bear funds will be the places to be.

Two bits of news re EMU ( a possible nightmare in the making )
1 ) Addressing central bankers from around the world at lunch, Czech Republic Prime Minister
Vaclav Klaus spoke strongly against European Monetary Union, warning it would have "incredible
fiscal implications.


2 ) - A press report claiming that the Italian government could face a L2.4
trillion damages award that would jeopardise its hopes of entering EMU from the start has been
described by a well-placed European Commission official as "premature".

GSC - thanks for the correction on the DOW/GOLD.

ALL: a great big surge of *confidence*. DOW running back up. Wow! Wow! I'd better drop by defenses and try to catch some of that up draf; ) Not for me, thanks. Not only do we have a stock market bubble but a growing real estate bubble as well. Just like Asia a few years ago. Looks like our time will come. We also have a very nice government bond bubble and a wonderful dollar bubble to boot. Bubble, bubble, boil and trouble. Maybe Slick was right, all the available simple minded will be swept off their feet... But just in case it starts raining bulls, I'll find some cover thanks.

This analyst's quote puts the announced sale in perspective....
Gold did not react to news of Russian sales of 31 tonnes of gold in August, despite fears among European traders that the New
York market would seize upon this as yet another large sale by a country thought to be a consumer. "The Russians are a special
case" as they buy the country's domestic production and resell it, said Tim Porter, an analyst with Refco.

GEORGE COLE: I don't have any charting software but I just took out the DJIA chart on page MW3 of Barron's and drew a line across the tops. The rally today was VERY impressive but it did not break through that line I drew, just touched it. That would confirm what Barton Biggs said AFTER he said it. Of course tomorrow evening this statement can look pretty stupid but right now it is comforting. Also, Barton Biggs is no jerk. I always listen with respect to what he has to say.

Too late then, too late now - From Barrons editorial,1/28/29 titled "Federal Reserve Policy Uncertain" "Federal Reserves problem boils down to finding a policy that will discourage a rate of increase in speculative losses out of keeping with the rate of the countrys savings and yet a policy that will neither hamper business, unsettle confidence, nor precipitate internatioonal credit disturbance. How this problem can be met seems beyond the ken of Wall Streets most experienced bankers."

Todays 257.36 rise in the Dow beats out its previous record that was recorded 2 days after the 1987 market crash. Could it be the sign of the time the market utopia has gone full circle?? Tommorrow will be interesting to say the least, keep your powder dry the time is right for the gold pickings!! The Golden Slamdog!!

Prior comment about 'simple minded' not targetted at people here. Just considering those 'out there' who are giddy with greed, etc. Sorry if the prior post offended anyone.

All: if you had a lot of money---pension manager, fund manager for example--where would you put your money --in the Asian markets or the US?

I think the money that would have gone into the far east will now flow into the DOW and NYSE in general and will add to that which has been going there during the past several 1000's points. If so- this is going to be one tall spike.
Having trouble conecting to Kitco today am I the only one?

NEW YORK-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --Standard & Poor's CreditWire 9/2/97-- Standard & Poor's today raised its estimate of
the present value cost of the Mexican banking crisis to 13.5% of Mexico's 1995 GDP from 12%. The high estimated cost,
however, was not enough to offset other improved fundamentals in the Mexican economy that led the agency earlier today to
revise its outlook on Mexico's double-'B' foreign currency rating to positive from stable.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/97/09/02/y0004_4.html

Brazil trade gap so far this year at $5.836 bln

BRASILIA, Sept 2 ( Reuter ) - Brazil's $315 million trade deficit in August takes the shortfall for the first eight months of the
year to $5.836 billion, according to figures from the Industry and Commerce Ministry.

In 1996 as a whole, Brazil posted a trade deficit of $5.539 billion, the ministry said.

Re today's "crash" UP to a new record single day point gain, Don't you guy's get tired of being RIGHT all the time?? WhoCares, re your 02:53, I don't need therapy, whenever I get into a bad space, I just read this group and in moments I'm mirthful for the rest of the day!

Puetz my old friend, how are those recommended S&P 500 PUT options doing today? Making your followers lot's of money no doubt, consistent with so many past recommendations..... is that why we havn't seen you here today? Too busy counting all the bucks from those "Puts"??

SELBY: I am sure you are correct about the flow of funds from Asia to the US. Of course, some of the money is gone. Some will go into bonds or money market market accounts. Some will go to Europe or Latin America, especially where there are family of funds environments. All of the money coming out of Asia is now "frightened money" and I would think it would be invested in a very conservative way, mabye even gold. Another point is that as withdrawals accelerate from Asia it exacerbates the Asian problem, raising fears worldwide about all speculative investments wherever they are. We saw that syndrome in Latin America with the "Tequila Effect" after the MKexican bailout. Even safe markets have problems when fears are heightened.

Question for you. You have said that I only care about technical indicators and fundamentals when it's convenient or some such nonsense. ( As if historical indicators have no markers in my book of strategies ) . Here's my question for all you genious analyst "Crash" theorists, who consistently missed this Bull. Just WHEN was it that we had a market crash in the face of low unemployment, low inflation ( Oh yes I know, the numbers are phony..... ) , strong dollar, continous growth in GDP, high productivity and profits, low interest rates, high consumer confidence, shrinking ( or at least stabilized ) deficit relative to GDP, a looming tax cut, good balance of trade numbers, and high confidence among foreign investors????? Please oh genious Guru analysts who worship all factors historical, explain to me when our last crash under these economic conditions occurred will you??

George Cole - So far so good ( 9/1 9:30, 9/2 14:31 ) . On 9/22/87 the first day off the double bottom rebound the S&P futures was up 3.43%. Today following the same pattern the S&P was up 3.37%. The next 8-10 days should be choppy with an upward direction. The top range is rather large anywhere between 940 - 955, I don't think we'll make new highs here but anything is possible.

I heard on CNBC that program trading around 10:00 am in the futures market lead this DOW rally. If I understood correctly, 2/3's came from one source-Goldman Sacs. Anyone else hear this?

Ha Ha, I told you we were back. I made over 5% today, what about you? Oh I forgot you're on the sidelines waiting for 7000. Well you are forgiven. But it's not too late for you to get on the bandwagon again. Tomorrow we're blasting through 8000 and then by Friday, 8500. I'm going to make at least 15-20% in a week.
You know you were doing good, until you joined this goldbug site, but now they rubbed off on you and you missed the bus.
You laughed at me last night and now look who's laughing now? You should never doubt a dipster, because we are the one's that makes it go. And now we're joined by Asia's dipsters and look how well they did!
So com'n and join the Dipsters Club of investing, but, before you can join you have to pass our initiation test. Ah don't worry it's not a difficult test, and if you pass and become a member ( subject to Dipster Moron Board of Directors Approval ) . I already know that you have what it takes.
Are you interested?

Allen, re your 16:40. I continue to become more and more amused at the market investors of the past 15 years being called "simple minded" or worse, by the "Genious" advanced analyst prognostications of the ALWAYS WRONG, "Crash is looming" chart and graph crowd. It's just not that complex my friend. I hate to borrow a politician's line, but "It's the economy stupid!" Better to be a fool year after year with a swollen bank acount, than an impoverished genious I guess. OK, if I'm cranky today it's only because I missed today's upward move! ( Though I still see short term correction, long term buy opportunity brewing ) . Hey Cole, gotta hand it to you on your short term calls, you sure beat PUETZ by a country mile......

ummmmm .... George what happened to your statement on Aug 8,1997.

Gotta hand it to you Dipster, you have more humorous intellect in your big toe than 99% of the gebuises here have in their entire collective ( and oh so impressive ) gray matter organs! Now as to me "Missing the boat" ( and yes, I'm PISSED about it!!! ) , the reason I "Missed" is because, as I have admitted repeatadly, I am greedily acting foolish by trying to be a trader. I am violating a good "buy and hold strategy", that has made me huge gains. Now my dilemna is of oucrse, "momentum" investing tommorrow, or wait for a "dip" and average in? Either way, I'll be better off long term than the "Crash & Burn" geniouses who are ALREADY about 400% behind eh????

The perfect description of the Modern Artificial Economic Control System.
Nothing phoney about the numbers, it is an absolutely perfect system, we
can all be proud of those that have fine tuned this economic wonder.
Give due praise, to such dedicated economic Architects. This economic
wonder has become a fail safe system. Tried, and made true, since 1914.
Not to worry, the Central Bank can fix, any and all short circuits.
Such are the wonders, of modern man, eh!

One reason why the stocks are holding up:



Anglogold CEO, Newmont see gold moving up

SINGAPORE, Sept 1 ( Reuter ) - The chief executive officer of Anglogold of South Africa and the chief financial officer of U.S.
giant Newmont Mining Corp ( NEM ) said on Monday the price of gold, currently languishing below US$325 an ounce, will
recover to hit about $350 over the next year.

``It's now sitting at the bottom of that range,'' Bobby Godsell, the CE0 of Anglogold, a division of Anglo American Corp of
South Africa ( ANGL.J ) , told Reuters in an interview at a gold conference in Singapore.

``I actually believe that an equilibrium price -- that is a price that matches long-term production and long-term consumption -- is
more in the order of the $350 level. So I would be looking for a return to the $350 level in a period of time.''

Gold prices went into a tailspin last July when the Reserve Bank of Australia sold 167 tonnes of gold, causing prices to dive to
12-year lows at around $314-$315 an ounce.

Godsell said the timeframe for gold prices to bounce back will depend on the ``uncertainties relating to the European Monetary
Union ( EMU ) .''

``We will certainly know the role that gold is going to play in European reserves by early next year,'' he said, adding a timeframe
will be ``somewhere between six and 12 months for dealing with the negative sentiment that has come up from European
monetary integration.''

Wayne Murdy, executive vice-president and chief financial officer of Newmont Mining Corp, said in a separate interview gold
prices will probably not fall much further.

``Last month, we closed out a million tonne forward position because we feel the downside ( in prices ) is relatively limited.
There's more upside than there is downside to it,'' he said. ``I don't think it's going to go much lower.''

Murdy said those holding large short positions on COMEX have not been able to push gold prices lower even though they
outnumber those with long positions by a margin of 10 to one.

Newmont implicitly criticzes ABX hedging program:



Newmont says unaffected by gold price

By Rene Pastor

SINGAPORE, Sept 1 ( Reuter ) - The chief financial officer of U.S. giant Newmont Mining Corp ( NEM ) said on Monday low
gold prices has not affected its exploration programme, although smaller outfits were suffering.

``We're fortunate in that we are a low-cost producer,'' Wayne Murdy told Reuters with gold prices to just under US$325 an
ounce, from more than $340 in July,

``We're the lowest-cost producer in North America,'' he said on the sidelines of a three-day gold conference in Singapore.
``We're committed to exploration.''

Newmont will spend $100 million this year in exploration and will probably allocate the same amount amount in 1998.

Coupled with the lingering impact of the Busang gold scandal in Indonesia, Murdy said in a speech to the conference ``the
decline in the gold price has dried up investment capital for many junior exploration companies and eliminated any thought of
equity offerings by the majors.''

Murdy, who is also chief financial officer of Newmont Gold Corp ( NGC ) , said the company was also working to bring the $1.9
billion Batu Hijau mining project on Indonesia's Sumbawa island into production.

``We start construction in May...It should go into production late 1999,'' he said.

Newmont's partner in the project is Japan's Sumitomo Corp ( 8053.T ) , which has taken a 35 percent stake in the project.

In his speech, Murdy said the decline in gold prices wiped out about $3.5 billion of shareholder wealth.

``It is significant that stock prices for the North American companies with the largest hedge positions have done no better than
those with limited hedges,'' he said.

``Large hedge programmes may be smart on a micro basis, but they feed short seller sentiment and are devastating to the macro
economics of the gold market. Investors in gold want blue sky, not fixed returns.''

Murdy said he believed the future of the gold industry, especially in the United States, would depend increasingly on its ability to
find richer deposits nearly a mile below the surface in places like Nevada, which now accounts for 65 percent of U.S. gold
production.

``The footprint of these deposits will be much smaller than the giant open pit mines of the past, so targetting techniques will have
to be more precise,'' he said.

Newmont is now working with U.S. and Russian space engineers to harness military hardware for commercial use.

By early next year, high resolution satellite imagery will be available for prospecting. Portable infrared spectrometers have also
been developed to measure reflected shortwave light from rocks with minerals that may be associated with gold.

``Increasingly, new technology will be the way we find more subtle surface evidence of deeper gold deposits,'' Murdy said.

Another breakthrough for the industry over the past few years was the processing technology that has allowed companies to
extract gold at increasingly lower levels of less than a gram per tonne.

``This allows the economic recovery of gold from ore that was previously considered waste,'' Murdy said.

Newmont has added three million ounce of gold to its reserves in the past two years from bioleach material in Nevada and is now
building a $100 million facility to recover 250,000 ounces of gold annually from 1999.

LGB, I do believe the DOW Titanic has left the pier and lo and behold you were not near!? As you may have noticed there were a few gold bugs who helped guide her out of the harbor only to return safely in their golden tugboats to the harbor. What is your opinion of the morrow? The good ship Titanic is too close to shore for icebergs but there are some shoals perhaps here in the news this week? I AM interested in your opinion. However, I am also interested to see if you will still be here when she meets her fate.

DIPSTER: You are right about the Asia recovery last night. I'm not supposed to tell anyone but you seem like a nice guy. It seems that in the Malaysia Central Bank they have a software guy working on the Y2K problem. Well, he fixed that but the really good news is that he found a software bug that has been in there for years. Seems as though when the software was first installed, a package they bought from George Soros, that all the pluses are minuses and visa versa. Now that it is fixed and the balance sheet is recalculated Malaysia is rich beyond everyones wildest dreams! Luckily this package was installed in Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Korea, Japan. They are working on the repairs as we speak and everything will be OK before the Asian markets open in a few hours. Now this is just between you and me. Don't tell a soul, OK?

Pardon my prolific posting ( say it 8 times fast ) , BUT I just couldn't help but set the record straight on the completely bogus info. you posted earlier on California's "Real Estate Bubble burst" etc. You stated that prices in L.A. area are still 50% off their peaks! WOW! That will sure come as a pleasant shock to current home buyer's who can't find a home at anything approching "pre bubble" prices. I visit L.A. often on Bus., and their real estate prices have recovered close to 100%. As to the rest of CA, in my area ( Silicon Valley ) prices not only recovered from their approx. 20% declines ( which were during a State recession by the way ) , but are now at alltime historic highs. Anyone who "Bought and held" even at the PEAK of the real estate market, is WAY in the money here. Current MEDIAN price in the area is $308K+ Astronomical yes, but destined to crash, NO WAY! Too many jobs chasing too few residences = supply and demand. Next downturn in real estate proces will accompany the next recession. As to prices "still 50% off their highs", don't post "facts" that are fiction, it doesn't strengthen your case.

Does anyone know if there is an on-line source for the information used in Jim Blanchard's graph entitled "Comex positions of large traders". Because there is such a strong correlation between swings in the traders long/short postion and the price of gold, with position swings even leading the price swings by a bit, I would like to watch this closely.

Opinion of tomorrow? Another gain, much more modest than today's of course, and little movement in the metals. My rationale behind this uneducated guess? If I give my rationale I'll hear 200 reasons why I'm being an overly simplistic moron so I'll just give this a 70% probability, ( Like Puetz gives his 35% crash by Oct. 31! ) and leave it at that. BTW, more than 50% of the conventional Wall St. analysts were bearish as of Friday. Seems to me this is not a very good indicator of a crash...no? ( Not to mention all the economic news discussed earlier... )

Stock bulls may want to look at this chart before they write any checks.
http://www.marketgauge.com/gauges/a970819.htm

( Japanese ) Economy may face brick wall if stock index stays below 18,000:
http://www.nikkei.co.ip/enews/TNKS/page/Economy_Finance.html#gen131

Exporters see greenback peaking:
http://www.nikkei.co.ip/enews/TNKS/page/Economy_Finance.html#gen132

I am impressed with you. You are the man. You are the best. You are the guru.

Vronsky,
This is the new site for Malaysia stock market,hope you like it: http://www.klse-ris.com.my/
Ted,
Whole ASia stocks markets washed by BLOOD,dod know what to do?...More negative effects coming up within weeks ,months....or sooner....lost a lots in currency exchanging rates......anyway....
happy trading....

Let me try again:

http://www.nikei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/Economy_Finance.html#gen131
http://www.nikei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/Economy_Finance.html#gen132

Puets: I'm getting confused with the various statement about your prediction as stated by others. As I recall you are predicting a drop in the DOW of 4000 points before the middle of Sept. Is this correct or do I have to go back and check?

But Shek,
LGB has such a burden upon him/her !
... the burden of perfection, and self-righteousness.
What is that old, 'historical' saying:
"pride goeth before the fall" ....
hmmm...
or...: "hell hath no fury like a woman's scorn" ...
hummm,
( well, guys, sounds like LGB may be one, frustrated "lady" ) ...
or....: "judge not, lest you ...." ...

oh, never mind

Sorry--Peutz

Last try:
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/Economy_Finance.html#gen131
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/Economy_Finance.html#gen132

Thanks Shek, but I knew all that already. Oh OK,OK, let me try humility. I lost out on a 3% gain today by not buying back in last week. Country bumpkin fool that I am. You happy now? Futhermore, I'm naive, simplistic in my market analysis, a sheep, a mindless moron, taken in by the phony Govt. figures, enjoying a false prosperity from phony paper profits, doomed to lose everything next week due to my Lemminglike devotion to the current overexuberant paradigm, and probably I'd be better off by quitting the market now before I make ANOTHER 400% in phony pretend gains that have no meaning!! Well, I can take heart. At least I'm not holding any of Puetze's S&P 500 PUT options.......

Mr. USofA ( Stern ) is being handled by very influential Canadians. Mr.
USofA is a very important official of the USofA culture. For he knows
not, of what he speaks. Mr. USofA, will say anything for big money eh!
That's how it is in the USofA, money talks and BS walks. I can only
hope and expect, that fellow French Canadians realize the motive for such
stupid remarks. Know where it is coming from.

Tuesday, September 02, 1997

Stern blasts French as scumbags, cowards

MONTREAL ( CP ) -- French-Canadians are cowards and among the "biggest scumbags" around, shock jock Howard Stern announced Tuesday as he hit Canadian airwaves. The bad boy of American radio waited only 15 minutes into his Canadian debut before launching into a hate-filled diatribe against francophones.
The "biggest scumbags on the planet, as I've said all along, are not only the French in France but the French in Canada," listeners heard Stern proclaim on Toronto's Q-107 and Montreal's CHOM-FM.

"Anyone who speaks French is a scumbag ... it turns you into a coward."

Stern's only visit to Montreal was an unhappy one -- he got chickenpox as a teenager and had to be flown home.
http://www.canoe.ca/News/sep2_stern.html

Hey Guys, I'd like several opinions ( please ) re: We have a block of Asarco stock that I'm concerned about IF there's a crash or a protracted bear. Asarco is a large copper mining outfit, among other things, & is a leading producer of silver ( as a by-product ) . Question: will it hit the skids with the rest OR rise with the metals ???????

6-Pak, re your 17:53. yes perfection has been attained, at last the perpetual motion machine of wealth creation has been invented. Not! Sure a crash will occur someday, when we have inflation, a recession, a falling dollar, etc....just not in the next few years! We'll see DOW 10,000 before we see Puetze's DOW 5000 and I'll be happy to make that wager with anyone who wants to put their money up.....

PUETZ: Robert Farrell has an article on the following site which you may find of interest, see matador. http://www.talks.com/index.html

Application form to the Dipster Moron Club of Investment ( founded 1928, renewed October 1987 ) ( our motto: we always buy on dips and dip whenever we can, because we've been there )

Applicant's Name :LurkingGbug
we strongly suggest you change the name to IAMAMORON

as it identifies your personality and investment strategies.

Unfortunately we can not proceed with remainder of application, unless you accept, to change the name.

Remember, by joining the Dipster Moron Investment Club, you'll never miss an opportunity to buy and you'll make extra-ordinary profit ad infinitum, as we buy low and sell lower, but when translated in Baht's you're way ahed.

Don't delay. Membership is restricted and available by invitation only.

My friend:
"Nothing is as good and as bad as it seems", and so it is with investments.

George S. Cole -- Something 'lurking' in the dust when XAU and HUI close up, even as modestly as they did. AND, HUI more the XAU! Kind of makes one expect a little up movement in the metal itself soon. Perhaps even tomorrow. But, I still haven't seen the 'water leave the bay' yet for gold, if you get my drift. I expect the 'other' stox to perform well out of the gate tomorrow and then do a 'bit' of retreat. 257 dow points and 30 spoo handles need to 'gather' themselves! But I do not believe that they are quite done yet. New higher highs? Maybe, and maybe not.

Tuesday, September 2, 1997
Thai crisis to cause 1 million to lose jobs - minister

BANGKOK, Thailand ( Reuter ) - Thailand's economic crisis will cause an additional 1 million people to lose their jobs, Finance Minister Thanong Bidaya said Tuesday.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/MoneyNews/sep2_thaicrisis.html

LGB -- You won't even see it coming!

Thai stocks rebounded yesterday, reversing a rout
that slashed more than 20 per cent off the
benchmark index in 13 days, after banks revealed
bad debts were no worse than investors expected
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970903005518098?=mar&template=DNoCommas.htx&maxfieldsize=703

September 2, 1997
Year 2000 task force set up

TORONTO ( CP ) - A government-industry task force was set up Tuesday to help Canadian businesses cope with the so-called millennium bug that's expected to affect the world's computers at the turn of the century.

http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Millennium-Task-Force.html

Gentlemen, I don't know how you do it. How can you afford to pay for
your ISP connection to participate at Kitco when all of you are loosing
money left and right. Per LGB, all of you are already 400% behind our
new Rockefeller. LGB, can you spare a dime? I promise I'll return the
favor when your luck runs out ;- )

...these two bits of news sound just like.....our numbers...moderate inflation and low unemployment

1 ) Prices rose 4.9 per cent year-on-year in July. The figures were at the
upper range of analysts' expectations.
2 ) The Bank of Thailand estimates that some 33.25 million are
employed in Thailand and 690,000 people unemployed

Dipster, While I appreciate your offer of membership, I'm really too busy right now managing the profits of the past few years, to get involved with yet another organization. However, Once the "Crash" blindsides me and I lose everything, I'll have plenty of time on my hands to complete my application paperwork.... Hmmm, wait a second though, I just remembered, while you "Crash" theorists were busy missing this bull market from DOW 2000 and up, I did in fact, recently complete pulling out my profits. A portion of those profits have now paid off a mortgage, purchased a car, some PLatinum and gold coins, a vacation......Hmmm, are you sure I qualify for your club? If the DOW goes to ZERO next month, and I'm still 300% ahead of you 15 year "Gloom and Doomers" will I still qualify for your club????? ( Just your basic sheeplike Moron, LGB )

SAVAGE: A close associate of mine for a number of years did promotion for Asarco. They tend to follow the end-of-cycle metal moves. Copper is usually strong at the end of a business cycle, and the stock market seems to be saying today that the end may not be quite in sight. Asarco recovers more silver as a byproduct of copper mining than any and all silver producers combined. If you are a believer in silver, and have lots of patience, Asarco is a decent, conservative late cycle play. Look at its chart first, of course. IMHO. PS - sorry about your hair.

Dow/Gold Ratio 24.44 We are back out of the 23's but still are far short of a declaration of a false reversal.

MIRO: I know what you mean. I just had an astrological pick ( non-gold share ) double on me in the last 2 days, and that's STILL not enuf!

OK Miro, I 'll loan you a dime on ONE condition. PROMISE you'll use that dime, to call a REAL analyst and get some GOOD market advice for a change! Someone like Bob Brinker who will help do a "reality check" against the "Crash iminent" nonsense we read around here!

Still waiting for your "long" position on how the Plantary alignment of Y2K will affect our investments Mike....

Also Mike, you're not the one who told that "Applewait" fella to sell his shares and try something new when "Hale-Bopp" showed up are you???

There was a young analyst Puetz....
Who showed that he really has Nuts...
He predicted DOW crashing,
Instead records it's smashing,
I'll say this, he has really got guts.....

Donald -- You may see the 'magic' number before long. 'Things' are getting 'ripe', and I use that word 'loosely'!

OK LGB, the rationale is what I'm after. Don't worry about contrary opinions, can't you hear your fans rooting you on: ) Actually, I promise I am going to listen, and learn, and not make fun of you even if ( I think ) you are obviously wrong. Just to show you I am definitely not a market guru, nor afraid to look stupid ( after all, I do own GOLD STOCKS )
I will give you my reasoning for the run up today. I can't do tomorrow because I'm back to work rest of week and this kind of market in my opinion requires CLOSE attention, hence I haven't really bothered. Anyway, here are my stupid reasons for todays action and I hope to hear your stupid reasons for tomorrow or rest of week: )
Market down without a reason AND oversold AND I couldn't find any fundamentals that matter to the *paper* folks ( they are the ones buying or selling paper you know: ) Therefore sentiment the cause ( hence your bearish 50% observation ) . One good technician was calling for a rise in OEX and had modified his bottom target up ( Deaner ) , and I weight this fellow heavily. I didn't like the idea of being long over long weekend and I imagined with all the currecy crisis going on that a lot of traders etc. didn't want to be either, low volume Friday etc. The stocks I was interested in had an uptick at the end Friday, I was very familiar with them ( especially one, guess which one everybody! ) AND I could monitor them all day Tuesday just in case. I could tell from indications Mon PM Tues AM that Tuesday was not going to start with a crash, or I would have got out on open. Finally, the stocks I was interested in tend to run counter to gold, although the main one, curiously, only since July 96. Obviously this won't work all the time, yet my downside was limited unless we had a 500 + drop. I believe someday we will have a drop like that, yet with all these things plus intuition ( ? ) I thought it would be another day. Note I see Danger Ahead, I am not ruling out Puetz by any means and do not believe you should either. Also, I will give you, LGB, partial credit for contaminating my golden virtue. Then again, I always thought it was safe to cross the street if you look both ways AND go quickly! I still hold all the gold, except for BLYDY with which I got out of even last week at 1 7/8. Bad feeling about that one, time will tell. Your turn.
PS This is a confession: ) obviously not investment advice!
PPS It even sounds dumber now that I wrote it, ( sigh ) ah well, I hope it encourages others more worthy to bare, or bear, all.

Re:ASARCO - Asarco was selling for $24.00 at the start of this bull market back in 82. It is now around $32.00. Not much progress. This does not mean it can not go up alot from here but the management of the company could be doing better. Althought I will state that I love to trade this stock. Buy under $25, sell over $30. You never loose! Well never may be a bit strong but you know what i mean.

LGB -- And Puetz still hasn't been proven wrong! I think that if He proves to be correct, you should also EAT the shoes after you've polished them! That, or wear them where the sun don't shine! His option!

Dipster Moron Club of Investment ( founded 1928, renewed October 1987 )

Applicant's Name: IAMAMORON ( alias LurkingGbug )

Our second priority is for members to avail their living only from investments and not secondary menial jobs and be available on call to discuss strategies and avail of the worldwide opportunities. For example our Dipster Moron Investment Club is now very actively investing and buying on dips throughout SouthEast Asia and we certainly want you to participate in this limited buying opportunities, as you certainly fit our investor profile.
More later.
I know that this is a simple formality for you, as you've indicated in your postings of your tremendous successes, even if was obtained through the dreary buy and hold strategies. But our Directors are very strict in the application of our by-laws.

Lurking Gbug: As I understand it, Puetz rhymes with "pits," which is probably how he feels right now. To more serious matters, what do you think will happen on 9/15 ( or is it 9/16? ) when the major economic reports are due out - CPI, Cap. Util., Ind. Prod., Bus. Inventories?

Just an observation. We look at 30+ markets every day, gather all kinds of information about trade balances, budget defecits, M1, M2, M3, currency devaluations, gold statistics, etc. We know what countries are fiscally strong and which are weak. But it doesn't matter. All the markets are up one day, down the next almost in unison. At this point in history it seems the markets are operating soley on raw emotion and the fundamentals don't mean squat. Sort of the way a flock of birds all turn and go off in another direction in unison as though they are connected telepathically to the head bird. The point of all this is that the full moon eclipse theory has a very high chance of being right in this environment.

Just an observation. We look at 30+ markets every day, gather all kinds of information about trade balances, budget defecits, M1, M2, M3, currency devaluations, gold statistics, etc. We know what countries are fiscally strong and which are weak. But it doesn't matter. All the markets are up one day, down the next almost in unison. At this point in history it seems the markets are operating soley on raw emotion and the fundamentals don't mean squat. Sort of the way a flock of birds all turn and go off in another direction in unison as though they are connected telepathically to the head bird. The point of all this is that the full moon eclipse theory has a very high chance of being right in this environment.

The market action did one thing for certain. It quashed the weak shorts! What does this mean? It means that they won't be there to help in 'buying' again! Sure, there will be some more upside, but when the top of this run is in hand, it also means that the drop could be much further than it otherwise might have been!

Lurking GB: You have a severe case of Diarrhea of the mouth.

Puetz said I should buy a PUT option...
Because soon S & P would be droppin...
Yet the "Overpriced" DOW,
Bloated like a fat cow,
Goes on higher as if there's no stoppin...

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

It now appears certain that gold is beginning its recovery in light of todays price declines. The evidence is that short covering probably lessended the decline in gold price in the face of a very strong US dollar. Why would the shorts cover in this situation ? It appears that the news of impending Indian gold demand for the festival and harvest seasons coupled with what professionals accept as seasonally strong 4Q gold demand is giving the shorts second thoughts. I note that the Russian 31 tonne Ausgust sale did not materially move gold price during the selling period or after the news was confirmed last week. Another hint of the worm turning is that it is the first time I read a spin story that actually suggested that gold is expected to hit $340 in 4Q9 - a Yahoo end of day precious metal summary action article.

The two articles GCS posted about comments from a few Big Boys in the gold mining convention in Singapore also suggest that gold price should average $350 in 1998 - an assumption also used by Nesbitt Burns.

I have argued ealier this year that the fundamental demand/supply picture for gold - exlcuding its monetary demand - favours a gold price of about $100 above its longterm cost of production. I was pleased to read that the comments by some gold mine executives appear to corroborate my accountant's feel for equalibrium prices that reflect risk/return rather than speculative management of price by tactical masters of the short position. $350 gold is OK by me if the Big Boys can bring an acceptable return to us shareholders who provide risk capital to finance the gold chase.

Finally, if the HUI and XAU rise today, especially HUI beating XAU, dose not mark the turning point - within a few bucks and days - then it will be back to the crystal ball or perhaps re-reading Mike's astrological comments.

DA - you didn't get a recovery in precious but we got the gold stocks telling us something - even my junior spec was up a few cents.

Cheers

With Churchillian clarity & logic Guest Guru Milhouse analyzes Alan Greenspans "secret weapon to ensure economy doesnt dive. M-3 accelerated growth is keystone to higher GOLD prices:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse831.html

Sorry, I really didn't mean it...just a joke.

LGB -- And if you had bought that put option when he recommended it, it would still be in the money! NOTHING has been proven or disproven yet! He said THROUGH OCTOBER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! JeeeeeeeeeSSH! A one or two day, or even a week, does NOT make a market! Let it play!

OK, you asked for a serious answer as to why I believe market MIGHT rise further this week, and no crash in sight. Firstly, Mfg, growth slowed slightly in August, Producer Index slowed also as did New Fact. orders, then we had statements today from Japan and EU indicating they won't defend their currencies from our rising dollar. All this indicates to me that Friday's reports will likely be positive to the market, Low inflation and healthy but stable growth. Market will react with easing of fears from a FED rate hike or inflation problem. Then we have all the basic rosy economic info.discussed in earlier posts ( my posts anyway, no one else seems to beleive that these traffic jams I see each day are caused by a booming economy ) . These are a few of the reasons, but of course, it's all just an educated guess from an Uneducated, Moronic, Imbecilic, Sheeplike, Proletariat, naive, non analytical, unsophisticated, non technically oriented, overexuberant, Country Bumpkin..so I'd take it all with a boulder of salt if I was to be you....The only thing I know for SURE, is that Puetze's "Crash" will not be happening before the next Millenium begins.......

Actually ElDorado, he's made the recommendation on several different days at this very site and some of those options are way out of the money.

Bob, to answer your question, I am the "self appointed" A hole of the site, due to the untimely demise of that acerbic, "psychotic" feline critter known as the HepCat. Just waiting to see how long the site Nazi's can tolerate healthy dissenting discourse ( With a dose of common sense based on market success ) before the cries for Fascistic censorship ( or a squelch button ) reach Bart's ears.....

It's pronounced ( pitts ) moron

LGB -- Dissenting, no problem! Healthy, somehow I seriously doubt it. You seem to have this 'hard' thing on for Puetz. Is that healthy? Not in my mind! Also, those options have a lot of time to traverse! It'll be amazing what can happen in a day, a week, or a month! Notice anything happening elsewheres and how fast?

Puetz: Took about half an hour to find ( squelch or search? which arrives first ) Aug 25 at 22:57 You said:

"The bloodbath has started. And it won't be over until the DJIA falls to between 4500 and 3000 by early October 1997 -- about 6 weeks from now. Stay long stocks at your own risk."

You might be right but I think there is going to be a much higher point than we have seen so far before 6 weeks have past.

Bob, Please forgive me, I'm just a small brained creature. but why is it that every sucessive dip in the gold price these past three years is further evidence that gold is now beginning it's bull market?

PS, Poser ..uh I mean "Poster ( @@@ ) ". Technically it would be diarhhea of the fingers, but thanks you anyway for your insightful and intelligent contribution to the discussion of the markets....

Fundy -- That's right. Let us ALL let the time tell ALL!

I'm a newby, comments if you would. Which is better buy 1oz eagles @ $347 or the German 20mark gold ( .2304 oz. gold ) @ $80 ea.?

LGB: don't take the squelch button personally. It has been expected for some months following a "vote" by the posters here.

LGB: I do not think you grasp the concept of options. If somebody knew for a fact that S&P is going to be in a freefall from now on without oscillatiing a bit, the recomendation would be "Sell S&P futures." I for one, am not ready to bet my pants that it will happen anytime soon, but I do know that I will get your pants if it does. Looking forward to you staying long in stocks untill the year 2000.

Cheers.

Today's action was clearly a short covering rally in the major market indicies, bonds and the dollar. That being the case and the fact that interest rates and the crb are in major long and short term uptrends and the dollar is in a major long term down trend, this rally should be used as an opportunity to short bonds, the major indicies and the dollar and to purchase gold and the xau.

Bill -- There is virtually no difference in cost per ounce. Therefore, I would tend towards the eagle as it would be better known here. IMHO.

Tokyo stocks seen up on US rally, but upside heavy.
"A weak yen, often positive for shares of exporters by making Japanese exports less expensive and thus more competitive
abroad, may not be welcomed by the stock market this time because pessimism over the economy was behind the recent
slump in the currency, brokers said."

http://www.biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/02/z0009_156.html

Voila, LGB, your post was well reasoned and sensible. No attacks thank goodness: ) Now if you would or could tone down a bit I am sure that others would see your better side. And then they would stop calling you all those abbreviated ( And not so abbrev. ) names;0 ) I think Puetz is a gentleman, and right or wrong should be treated as such. I would gladly extend the same courtesy to you; can we chill out, all? Hepcat NEVER did explain 325, hence I had no interest in that cat. LGB has given a reason ( s ) , so he is one up in my book. Now can we all play nicely in the kitco sandbox?? Or is that too much of a hard thingey!

How low will Palladium go? If it keeps falling like it has been it should be free in a few weeks.

Jmark, looks like I have to thank yet ANOTHER brilliant mind for some insightful, intellectually superior market comments. And here I thought it rhymed with PUTZ all this time.... ElDorado..if you read back all my many overprolific posts ( something I don't recommend ) , you'll see that indeed I am much harder on Puetz than anyone else. Is it healthy? Well one must understand the motives.

a ) I lost money in the late 70's when I was a young naive investor, by following a very similar stock crash Gloom and Doom, buy Gold & Silver guru named Howard Ruff. Thankfully, I learned how to think for myself in the process, and have not repeated this folly.

b ) I have a younger brother who just lost a bundle following the advice of certain Guru's who shall remain nameless. It's hard for me to influence and help said younger brother as he's been a little busy flying Blackhawk choppers in faraway countries for military the past few years, including incursions into Panama, Iraq, & Bosnia. I feel badly for him because the nameless "advisor" has helped fleece him of virtually all his savings. Money he worked pretty damned hard to earn.

c ) Gloom and Doom Advice, Book and Newsletter sellers in general, seem to me to have cost more money to more investors than just about anyone else in the past few decades.And such folks don't seem to really believe their own advice.. ( Puetz took me up on my wager giving him 2 to 1 odds on his 70% crash scenario, then he backed out..... )

d ) If I seem shrill and prolific, it's only to perhaps add a bit of balance to what seems to me to be a somewhat imbalanced preponderance of views here. A reality check about what the markets have done, vs. the predictions is in order from time to time.

e ) While I realize I may come off as a horn blowing, self righteous, chest beating, moron at times.. ( did I REALLY write THAT, I often ask myself? ) , the fact remains that I don't participate in the name calling, censorship demanding, "get lost and don't post here", type of dialogue that I see so frequently directed at myself and others of "Contrary to the Contrarian" philosophical stripe.

Lastly but not leastly, I'll be completely honest and admit that I get some perverse "unhealthy" pleasure from challenging the elitist beliefs of those who feel their exotic "analyses" ( that seem to always turn out wrong ) , are somehow superior to all us "Imbecilic morons" out here who have just plodded along making great gains in the best bull market in hiostory by ignoring "Doom and Gloomers" and heeding more conventional analysis.

Gee, maybe " ( Poster@@@ ) " is right, it feels like I took a lot of ex lax today!

Petronius Gaius:
Right on!

I WISH YOU GUYS WOULD STOP RESPONDING TO THIS JOKER ( LGB ) SO HE'LL GO AWAY. I'VE NOTICED THAT HE OWNED BENGUET AT 10+ ( I CAN'T FIND WHERE IT WAS EVER MORE THAN $3 ) IN 1987. ( POST AUG 29 18:31 ) HE ALSO COULDN'T GET OUT OF HIS OTHER MINING STOCKS RIGHT AFTER THE CRASH OF 87 AND YET HIS MODEST BEGINNING CAME IN 1988. ( POST AUG 29 18:31 ) THIS GUY REMINDS ME SO MUCH OF ANOTHER GUY I KNEW IT'S SCARY. HE IS A VERY SMART FELLOW, MAYBE EVEN BORDERLINE GENUIS/NUT BUT HE'S NOT ALL THAT INTERESTED IN THE STOCK MARKET AND I DOUBT HE OWNS ANY PRECIOUS METALS. HE IS PROBABLY SUPPORTED BY A WIFE AND/OR PARENTS, AND IS A PATHOLOGICAL LIAR . WHAT HE'S BEST AT IS TRYING TO CONTROL PEOPLE. THAT'S WHAT FLOATS HIS BOAT AND EVERYTIME YOU RETURN ONE OF HIS POSTS, IT JUST INCREASES THE SIZE OF HIS LIES. NO POINT IN TRYING TO TELL HIM ANYTHING ABOUT ANALYSIS OR Y2K OR ANYTHING ELSE BECAUSE HE ALREADY KNOWS IT ALL. I REALLY ENJOY THIS SITE , AND I WELCOME CONTRARIAN THOUGHT BUT THIS GUY IS LOONEY TUNES. COME ON FELLAS! GET A CLUE AND IGNORE THIS GUY SO HE'LL GO AWAY. PLEASE!!!!!!!!!.

Hate to be unpatriotic, but I'd vote for the Canadian Maple Leaf because of the smaller premium and purity. ( 99.9% gold vs, the copper alloyed versions you'll find with Amer Eagles and Krugerrands )

Prophetic Economist George S. Cole foresees a lackluster gold performance until greenback tanks. Once dollar turns south & short interest remains high, an explosive up move is a good bet:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/cole831.html

Jmark, anyone who reads your latest screaming post, and contrasts it to my own admittedly prolific posts, may come to a different conclusion as to who is "Psycho" than what you intended. However, I certainly defend you're right to state your piece. You are certainly re-inforcing some of the points I have been trying to make. Thanks.

Does anyone have access to or know the where abouts of data that one can obtain the amount of physical gold loaned by the central banks or other holders of gold, ( precious metal mutual funds ) over the past 7 years. I also seek the amount of actual gold delivered agaist these outstanding loans by the borrowers over the same time period. Is the amount of physical gold loans on net increasing and at what rate.

Just checked in. Things are a bit savage tonight. I'll check the site in the morning for bodies. Back to my book.

LGB -- I follow no less than THREE voices in the markets! They are ME, MYSELF, and I! Each are privy to the same information available. Each is uniquely introspective in its own way. It takes a minimum of two to make a decision. Preferably three, but that's rare. Learn to do your own work so you have no one else to blame! Stop harping! You got nothin' on no one except for that twenty-twenty hindsite!

"THE COMING COMPETING CURRENCY DEVALUATIONS" - Dines reviews the spate of currency devaluations in Far-East. He aptly exposes Central Bank folly of increasing rates to defend their currency:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines830.html

Questor -- The 64 million dollar question! I too would like that answer. Not that I depend upon it. Just, would like.

George, appreciated your 18:03 on gold producer comments. Question, do you believe that evaporating investment toward exploration will be offset by advanced recovery techniques? Or somewhat offset? More than offset? I still have yet to understand whether unprofitable marginal mines + declining exploration investment could well be a bullish long term indicator. ( On topic for a change, LGB )

The Austrian Vienna Philharmonic is .9999 pure, costs less than a Maple Leaf, and is non-reportable.

PS - All

I misspoke about the Canadian Mounty. The coin will be struck with a $310 US - that's United States - face value. At $320 gold, the coins will have a maximum downside risk of $10. I will be able to offer 15%leverage will no margin calls. I've never seen anything like this before. The coins are being struck as I type, and I will be the first guy on the block with these coins. Hell, this might even get me buying gold again. If anyone wants more info, e-mail. rjd@pacbell.net

Gold should retest the recent lows. I think we will hit new lows in the next month. Silver is looking stronger, but I still am considering a short above 4.75. Platinum is ready to move at any time, just as quick as in previous moves, we could be back at $450 in a few days. If it takes longer, so be it, the supply picture is getting worse not better. Platinum will top $500 in 1998.

How about that DOW? Who's surprised?

Lurking Gbug: I agree that the market may go higher this week, but I think that's only temporary. First, today's so-called rosy NAPM report had a lot between the lines. The decline in their index hides the fact that, according to the report, "The group's average reading from January through August of 55.3 equates to 4 percent growth in gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economy, while the 56.8 reading for August alone corresponds to a 4.5 percent growth rate, the association said." A 4.5% growth rate seems a bit too inflationary to me. Also, the July PPI did not show some of the recent commodity and energy price increases. I believe that these will show slight increases in the August numbers to be released on 9/11. The big increases, I think, will be logged on 9/15. I think the CPI ( including energy ) will show inflation creeping up at a somewhat accelerated rate. The big question is: will the Fed raise rates at the next meeting as a preemptive measure? I think that they'll be gun shy. If they don't raise rates, watch for rising bullion prices, as then inflation will have risen faster than interest rates ( which reflect on fixed rate investment instrument yields ) . And if the stock market doesn't go down on 9/15, I expect a rhyme in my honor as well!!!

True, but the Maples, Eagles, etc. are quite a bit more liquid and readily accepted by the marketplace.

LURKINGGBUG: Your21:15 - "I don't participate in name calling". Reread your Aug 31 15:50 where you call Oldman an "unenlightened windbag, moron, and imbecile". What do you call that? You can contribute a great deal here if you can tone down your rhetoric. IMHO ;- )

Im not shopping for business here, I dont make my money on deliveries anyway, but I have received so many private inquiries about the Platinum American Eagle and the Canadian Mounty, its easier to respond this way. I should be able to take orders next week on the Platinum American Eagle for shipment within the next month. The Canadian Mounty should be available in a couple weeks.

If anyone here thinks this is crass commercialism, relax, my money comes from trading accounts, not deliveries. As far as I know, I will be the only source for the Mounty and the first in the country to offer the PAE, at current prices. Any questions should be directed to me at rjd@pacbell.net. I will keep the rest posted on further developments.

MIKE SHELLER and GLENN: Thanks for the input on Asarco. I value both of your opinions highly. Mike, I appreciate your condolences on the hair. ( now I just hope the bald spot doesn't expand )

Hi Jin! Was starting to wonder where you were....It's interesting to hear that you think there will be further carnage in the S.E.Asian equity+ currency markets and I wish you'd post more so we can learn more about what is happening in Malaysia and the rest of S.E.Asia....My brother is back in the USA looking for more investors ( suckers ) to invest in the Thai market...I take it that you think its still too early to buy S.E.Asian equities???

LurkingGbug; better act fast; or this market will get away from you.
DOW 13000 by October 20, 1997 is slam dunk. BUY, BUY, BUY fore it's to late.
Go for it, don't take any home eqity loans, not until the next leg starting at DOW 12502 on October 24, 1997 that will make a temporary peak of 20000 on the day before Xmas.

Eldo:
Someone that I have some confidence in puts the total gold loan figure somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 MM oz. His reasoning is based upon the loan books at a couple of the larger lending institutions of which he has some knowledge. I don't have any info on the growth only to say that it has been increasing very strongly over the last few years.

Yes GoldBug23, it's true I said those things to "Old MAN", but remember to keep it in context, I stated plainly in that post that I was violating my own "no insult" policy in his case because of his totally uncalled for negative insulting comments toward the deceased Lady Diana.

After all, she has most likely done more for humanity on any given day she lived, than "Old Man" will do in his lifetime. A truly decent and compassionate human being, who used her wealth and position for good causes instead of self aggrandizement we see so often in our own "celebrities". I felt the attack was justified in his case.

The VP was the top selling gold coin in the world last year. Number one in 1994 also. The Austrian Mint, at 800 years, is the oldest operating mint in the world. The widely accepted and respected Austrian Corona gave inroads to markets that prefer the VP above all other bullion coins.

In North America, the ML is still the most popular coin. I sell the ML for .50 higher than the VP. The main reason I like the VP is the absence of reporting requirements. Most goldbugs I know would rather not have their every transaction reported. All this is fine and dandy, but I would still rather buy platinum than gold.

Eldorado, GS Cole: Be careful not to read too much into the divergence between GCZ7 and HUI/XAU. The indeces closed with such a fractional change as to be meaningless. Clearly, the gold stocks are far stronger than the bullion, which is a very good sign. Not quite time to pull the trigger, IMHO. I agree with GSC that the Dow will make a run at 8,000 before it starts doing the flips, although I disagree about the US$ needing to tank before gold starts its run. The spreading currency crisis will open some eyes and gold will shine in the face of strong dollar. ( Just one of those everybody-has-one opinions. )

You know, I don't mind reading about all kinds of fluff like the Y2K bug or the demise of an ex-member of a royal family or the effects of El Nino. This is a discussion group ( or chat group? ) anyway. What really hurts my eyes is to have to ferret through garbage like ad hominem attacks on people who post here.

I really appreciate the ideas and efforts of the serious thinkers here, regardless of their disposition towards equities, gold, or whatever. I also enjoy Tortfeasor and his jokes, as well as Cherokee and his smoke signals.

Would you please help keep this neighborhood friendly to all who travel here? Pissing contests do not add any value, just create a stench. Thank you.

Ingot We Trust, Bart Kitner We Praise.

I don't know about dips in gold price over the past three years being suggested as new BULL runs. I had suggested on numerous past posts that I wasn't convinced a great "longterm" gold trend reversal was evident. In my past posts, however, I argued that gold does have a fundamental commodity value exclusive of its monetary or store-of-value characteristic. The demand for jewellry and other industrial processes accounts for about 70 percent of gold demand. I do understand and accept that much of the Indian/Chinese subcontinent buys gold for jewellry and store-of-value reasons but the price of jewellry is inelastic and, as such, it trades within a range ( no blue sky effect ) . I am also aware of the great history of the value of gold from ancient times - the three wise men brought Gold, Frankensense and Mur to the Christ child when he was born in the manger in Bethleham.

The gold price drop over the past 18 months forces less efficient miners out of business ( exploration finance dries-up, low grade resources are ignored, etc. ) and allows for consolidation by Big Boy miners.

Consolidation also happened in the diamond business under DeBeers and the result was a stable price regime for diamonds - some would argue that price fixing is the norm but difficult to prove especially when you consider that diamonds could, unlike gold, be manufacturered.

So the current low in gold price is in and the turn is confirmed by recent NIL price reaction toward bad news ( Russian sales ) and the reduced effectiveness of the massive short pros who have not tanked the yellow metal below $313 even though the US$ has gained impressive strength and stocks keep coming back. The gold stocks certainly didn't wilt in the face of golds decline today and the strength of the buck.

For these reasons, I believe that the turn - give or take a few bucks - is beginning and we should see gold price near $350 - if not before the end of 1997, then, as suggested by other pro observers, by 1998 ( avg. ) .

Good to see that you have a sense of humour. I am sure that if you have experienced the markets for the past twenty years or so you would agree that nothing lasts forever. My bet is that the stock market BULL run has a shorter life span than the Golden Bear. What is your bet ?

Cheers.

RJ, re your coin comments, wouldn't the Newbie's question best be answered relative to our marketplace, thus ML's would be preferred? Also, why do you like Platinum better than gold? Because of the long term upside potential? ( Interested holder of several Platinum Eagle Proof sets, LGB )

LGB: I'd be willing to bet there's not even one lurker or poster out there right now that hasn't been burned at least once by taking "bad" advice. Hey, sometimes I wish I didn't take my own! I can relate to your 70's Ruff thing...I lost big$ ( to me ) in 1981 following some gold "guru". However, I think that most of the postings found here that are relevant to the markets ( and not just personal in nature ) do have good insight, whether we ( that is to say, I ) want to believe it or not. For further review, I suggest researching the lives of some of the OT prophets...very unpopular guys for many years...and they REALLY paid the price for speaking out...but in the end they were right...without achieving personal wealth. Thanks for being so candid...we all live and hopefully continue to learn...and I for one enjoy learning at Kitco.

Cents Financial Journal contains many economic reports that maybe of interest to many here.

http://www.lp-llc.com/cents/

Your comments make sense. As to whether Wall Street or the yellow will prevail best over the LONG long term, ( next 10 years or more ) , I would be on the fence but leaning toward Gold. No folks I havn't just reversed myself!! I never said the Bull in stocks would last forever, just for a few more years! Inevitably, the economy will sour, inflation will return, an energy crises will arise, some Moron will set off a nuclear weapon someplace, financial crises will develop worldwide, and Y2K phenomena may even rear their ugly heads. This is why I'm beginning to invest in coins at these bargain levels..but still believe the Bull has some life left in it. I'll be long gone from Wall STreet when the fundamentals genuinely change in our economy. Meanwhile, I'll just keep tweaking the noses of the perpetual ( and badly timed ) "Bad News Bears" a while longer!

Well said Watcher, what can I add? ( Well OK, since everyone insists! ) , Notice the OT prophets were reviled for speaking the truth that no one wanted to hear? A somewhat human tendency. Kill the messenger. Now I'm no prophet, but when someone tells me the sky is Green, not Blue, and that all kinds of advanced scientific physics principles support the "fact" that it's Green, an unsophisticated Bumpkin like me tends to speak up and say "Uh excuse me but it sure looks BLUE to me!"

Platinum now, platinum tomorrow, platinum long term, short term, any kind of platinum you can get, is superior to any like weight in gold. I have previously stated here that the economic role of gold may be going through a fundamental change. Gold may have seen its day. True there will be occasional spikes, but the long term trend looks down. As a long term buy and hold, rank gold among the least profitable but most conservative moves you could make. I too bought a PAE Proof - just one though - so I am susceptible to its charms as anyone. PL to the moon, Im looking to buy more.

Korondy -- No problem here. As I stated, gold might do a bit of a rise, perhaps tomorrow, but all the 'water hasn't yet left the bay'. I.E., it ain't done going down yet, IMHO.

RJ -- That's some fine info on the coins! Thanks!

Sheller,Vronsky,Mooney Meet my imaginary crutch "The Great Goldenko" From deep within the netherlands of shadow walkers comes yet another exhibit of the Dark Carnival.He is the master of the art of using magic without magic.He is a Necromaster...the craft of using magic through the dead.Dead meaning both physically and mentally.This spectacle shall be witnessed only by those who are meant to see it.Look deep inside of your soul and ask yourself ...Do you hold a ticket to witness the show? The answer lies within yourself.He is the fourth to rise.He feeds upon one's own greed.He is powered by one's own jealousy, lust and temptation.To envision yourself with something that rightfully does not belong to you ...that is the illusion cast by him.To act upon this vision and seek it out at the expense of another ...that is the magic cast by him.Continuous dreamers of profit at the cost of another are pledged and haunted by his wizardy.Others are content and satisfied with what they can achieve by themselves and have not the urge to tamper with another's well being for quick gain.They see him only as a hoax and see no illusions or magic by he. You and he are the fourth to rise ...You and he are the master of Necromesy ...You the dead and him the magic.Together,Let us all meet the "Great Goldenko".Happy Trails.

Asian equities strong with the exception on Malaysia ( down 1.94% ) ...Nikkei up 2.07%; Indonesia up 3.59%; Hang Seng up 4.79%; Taiwan up 2.92%...

Well, looks like Asia follows the US lead. All markets up with
significant gains 2- 4 %

Good night yoall. I am outof here

early clues, for the next intermediate, and perhaps, major move, in all primary investment markets of the 'civilized' world; might
just be found in the commodities themselves; in their relationships to one another; and in their bull-market pressure revealed ... as the growing storm-clouds of distrust, of currency-paper, gather. :: )

#1. Sugar - "scents", "smells" the 'call';
it's next bull-chapter, arriving now
in this 'hall';

#2. Cocoa - about to resume, and break loose for the 'bull', and
fly free;

#3. Cotton's 'head-fake', is perhaps, missed by most;

#4. Coffee fools ... almost all;

#5. OJ is no longer, where it wants to be;

#6. Energy grp., will soon, get in gear, as n-gas, & un-gas, lead;

#7. grains, ( & meats too ) , will show the bull's way, as s-beans, & s-meal, and wheat & corn, move into bullish territory - even more, while s-oil, perhaps, brings up the rear;

#8. currencies will then follow suit; as the DM & SwFr offer, in the 'unfolding now', their last, best, buying opportunity;

#9. and our precious metals will THEN, rise, again ....

RJ -- I assume when you say that gold is under-going a fundamental change, that in the same breath you are saying that debt/paper will remain supreme. Well, I suppose, if everybody has mighty mighty deep pockets, and those pockets are getting deeper everyday. The whole debt-as-money scenario is going to have to undergo its own fundamental shift in order for paper to survive!

What?? You mean the total collapse of the Asian markets that was supposed to bring on the crash is to the upside??

RJ, Buy more Platinum proofs. The USM will experience a sell out in the next couple weeks if they havn't already. The 4 coin sets were an immediate sell out as you no doubt know, due to the extremely limited mintages and 8,000 total release for 97. ( not to mention all the "firsts" for these coins, first Platinum proof, first "$100" denomination coin, first "W" mint mark in coin of it's type, first coin to show the "$" sign as a part of inscription, first legal tender Proof series that will have a different reverse every year, etc etc etc. ) Numismatists will hold these in high esteem in years to come. We'll see values of 200 to 300% over the issue price.

You seems to be mounting the same soapbox, albeit a more congenial one, upon which a recent guest proudly preened. Shoals ahead, mate......... hard to starboard....... Dont you just love those sailing metaphors? Even when they are meaningless?

Where was I. Oh. OK, its not your views that have the panties bunched hereabouts, it is the condescending tone and occasional forays into personal insults. Now, you are the new kid - although I suspect you have been around before - there is a certain novelty to exchanging jabs. This freshness will surely run its course ( sorry, Shirley ) and what is then left is substance. Gotta have some of that to stick around.

As for your brief and few attempts at humility and camaraderie, they seemed a bit forced. Spencer Tracy once said about acting "If you can fake sincerity, you can fake anything.". Anyway, stick around, but believe not too much, your own press, many mighty men have fallen from the mizzenmast by this one mistake. Another sailing thingyKinda' got that "m" thing going for it also.................

Roebear -- I have become involved with one too many 'projects' of late. House repair and PC 'upgrading'. BAD combination!

Dowsy WOWsy! Nothing has been proven yet in the Dow. We need to test the old highs. As far as the XAU and HUI performance,... I expected better given the huge rise in the market. I expected better performance for no other reason than index fund buying. I haven't looked at all of the numbers ( my real PC is in a state of 'dis-assembly', now using the laptop. ) , but I now suspect that index fund buying ( S&P-500 ) has very little effect on the mining shares.

If you're a short term trader, I would think that SPY, MDY or index call options on the S&P are in order here. There's just no interest in gold,... yet. The market internals looked real good as of last Friday. Obviously, that could change, but for now... The trend is your friend!

Roebear -- I have become involved with one too many 'projects' of late. House repair and PC 'upgrading'. BAD combination!

Dowsy WOWsy! Nothing has been proven yet in the Dow. We need to test the old highs. As far as the XAU and HUI performance,... I expected better given the huge rise in the market. I expected better performance for no other reason than index fund buying. I haven't looked at all of the numbers ( my real PC is in a state of 'dis-assembly', now using the laptop. ) , but I now suspect that index fund buying ( S&P-500 ) has very little effect on the mining shares.

If you're a short term trader, I would think that SPY, MDY or index call options on the S&P are in order here. There's just no interest in gold,... yet. The market internals looked real good as of last Friday. Obviously, that could change, but for now... The

Gbug: You are basically a very ignorant person - worst a very stupid
one. You try to elevate your low existance by attempting to pull others down to your snake-level. You basically lack total self-esteem and confidence, which is the reason your self-esteem is so low. You may fool those immediately around you, but you suffer great self-doubt, therefore you "defend" yourself by attacking others. In essence you are a pathetic, sorry poor excuse for a human being! Your personality will undoubtedly find a way to rationalize the truth, but in the final analysis the truth is the truth - and eventually you will have to face the "Picture of Dorian Grey! Kicking others only emboldens a true COWARD!

I know there has been a tremendous amount of discussion concerning El Nino, and YK2.. I have recently developed a voracious interest in El Nino and somewhat less in YK2. Could those who are knowledgeable on these two subjects please forward any links, resources, etc that you may have? Thanks in advance for the help......... rjd@pacbell.net

Jin: Good timing on your comments earlier in the day as the KLSE Composite is down 3.02%

RJ -- Gary North's Y2K links and forums: http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/

SORRY Dudes. I can use a thousand excuses but everyone has those ( like assholes, right? ) . I am truly sorry I did not have the opportunity to meet you all in person and to listen to the good music from the resident Stradmaster. It is a very tough ( demanding/inconcistent ) schedule I keep, as I'm am sure we all do. I will try for the next time and we can perhaps meet before for a pint and a dart or two.

Meanwhile, RJ - you have not mentioned or critiqued the concert. Why not ? Are you waiting to write an epic review? C'mon, and bring it on!

And now to Platinum talk...It gives me warm fuzzies when you talk that way of the rare-white-stuff. I am w/w with VERY confident eyes!! We will see a run and SOOOON...to the moon *YES* to the moon!

Goldbug23, I recall you posted that you had a tape of the concert. My mail is eblm@utech.net Please let me know if it is possible to get a copy. Cost means little...but I'm not looking for a raping either ;- ) .

Strad - congrats on the Ovation...wish I was there...

Gotta eat now, I am starving!!!! be back soon... ;-0

away...to gorge myself with good fixin's

eb

Did the format change again? Where is that link that lets you see what was added since you logged on?

Ahhhh, too much for today! Tomorrow, a valiant attempt will be made to reassemble the old 'new' PC! Barring, of course, any other changes due to the 'atx' footprint.... I need a new case and power supply! ARGHH! How can the 'Asian Tigers' have a currency crisis when WE have given them such a scam ( called computers! ) ! I just don't get it!!

TED -- I'm getting tired of 'carpentry'! :- )

good night all! ZZZzzz

1 View: Your poetry is nice but lacking the spice of the prime motivation of all the ball...of wax. And so I'll record the address to board to see where the woe of commodity inflation may come from. ( If the link doesn't work, just call me a jerk. I've just figured out how to post in the first place. ) http://www.whitehouse.gov/WH/EOP/pcsd/Council_report/chapter_7.html

After 're-configuring' Netscape a little, everything works fine. Like I said, how can the Asian Tigers have currency crisis when they have this computer thing all sewed up! :- ) )

Really, really gone. Good night!

Back from a four week holiday in South America, I would like to recommend to all of you gold lovers the Gold Museum of Santa Fe' De Bogota' in Colombia. Truly a showpiece of native gold crafts of a quality and quantity that defies imagination. No wonder the Spaniards thought that this part of the world was the location of mythical Eldorado.

This guy is one of my favorites. He has good stuff most of the time. This weeks commentary is pretty fun stuff. AS ALWAYS, TAKE IT FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH! However, if you look at Jake's track record you will find that he does quite well ( 'been there, done that' kind of thing ) . But, I don't need to defend anyone, so enjoy this good stuff.
http://www.trade-futures.com/reports.html

And his comments on OJ ( yes, you guessed it ) are QUITE interesting indeedy!

away
EB $$

1 view: That just didn't format right. How did you get all the neat breaks? Oh, well. IMHO the markets will take off, if all else fails when Klinton orders the new energy taxes next winter. $2.50 for a gallon of gas will stir up the multitudes, one would think. LurkingGbug: Modern US Gold Eagles are a gold/silver alloy, not a gold/copper.

There once was a man who bought so much gold
he bought and he bought until he got old
I'm safe and I'm sound, he had not denied
then all of a sudden, the man up and died.

From up in the heavens he could see as he went
all those gold coins, that he had never spent
his aunts and his uncles and cousins and more
clamoured his wealth as they sold out the store

St Peter, he shouted, give me a last chance
I'll sell all my gold and quit this romance
St Peter replied to him, I can't do that now
for you might go back and invest in the DOW.

Thanks.