Fundy: Yes. I still expect the DJIA to be below 4500 before the end of October 1997. Remember, in 1929, the hot go-go Dow Utilities ( adjusted to today's DJIA ) were at the equivalent of 8081 on October 10th. Three weeks later, on October 29th, they had crashed to 4310. A little over a month later, they were all the way down to 3812.

In a market where stocks are grossly over-valued and leverage is extreme, once the market breaks hard enough, "margin calls" swamp the market-place. This avalanche of "margin calls" sets off a panic which no monetary authority can control.

The history books are full of stories of attempts by governments and monetary authorities to control chrashes once they get started. Most attempts so far have failed. Greenspan's 1987 attempt came closest to succeeding. This time though, the stock market excesses are much greater. Back in 1987, the public had their money in real estate. In 1997, the public is in stocks -- having refinanced their homes -- borrowing money to buy stocks.

When the "margin calls" come, the decline gains unbelievable speed and momentum. That's why a crash to below DJIA 4500 in a few weeks time is not all that unreasonable.

I believe that we may have hit a significant bottom in both gold and the xau today.

Nick and Eldorado: Thanks for the comments!!!

I think all of you who think that it'll be inflation, or even deflation?, that'll make gold rise ain't quite got out of 'bed' yet. It'll be pure unadulterated FEAR that'll make it go! Nothing but!!!! That's why it won't just move a little, but a lot, and it'll do it like a cat that's set its rear in a puddle of turpentine! It'll make coffee look like it's been standing still!

Puetz: I agree that things look so good that the next major change will be down. However I see no reason to believe it has to be 6 weeks from Aug 25 which puts your prediction about the end of September. I am amazed at the multitude of facts that you have at your disposal which indicate a top but so far I see no timing implicit in them. Admire your confidence.

Good night all!! I anticipate good things for all gold-bugs during the next month.

Mr. Puetz:

Scenario#1...you're right and you become undisputed king of financial prognosticators!

Scenario #2: you're wrong and remain one of the many good analysts out there...no better or worse than any other.

Sounds like you've hedged well...Good evening sir and may your sleep be sound!

I choose door #1...it sounds like it would be exciting for awhile.

GC: I hadn't given much thought about the Chinese seeking most favored nation status but you are exactly right. With the current fund raising snafu, it might be very difficult getting that through congress. We could see a retaliatory sell off of US treasuries.

As for Japanese not selling US treasuries until their economy improves, you could be right. The Japanese government has kept interest rates very low to stimulate their economy. Unfortunately, it has been reported that citizens are borrowing at these low rates then investing the money here in the US. I can't imagine they will let this continue forever.

Also, I believe you could see even more treasury selling as the US becomes the scapegoat for those Asian politicians facing an angry public.

Tis late on the "far east" coast...nite all!....Dec. gold up .30

Puetz: Thanks for your daring..Eldorado: Thanks for your reality ( fear will be the fuel ) .C V Compton Shaw: Thanks for your optimism..
Donald: Thanks for your undying effort.LGB: I wish you would sign
with the BUGS we need your power of attack. Now all of you go out there and kick butt.

VRONSKY ( 19:18 ) Just an idea, but the other site for gold, gold coins and stocks maybe be a good place for detailed discussions about the LBMA. Perhaps we can collectively solve some of the mystery here. THE RED BARON makes a good point concerning the miniscule CB sales relative to daily turnover at the LBMA. My opinion is that the public medias attack on gold is the prime reason for golds poor action. Who the Media is hacking for seems clear to me. Also, if Steve is only partially correct and the DOW falls to 6000, he can send is shoes to me for a best effort shine.

Puetz - I don't disagree that Greenspan has created a huge bubble.
But if you bet against him in 91 or 93, you LOST. Period. : )

I say Greenspan kicks your butt. : ) He's got lots more
firepower. Think about this - If *I* were Greenspan, I
would have something akin to the following in place -

Real-time monitors on potential failure points in the
market. Triggers set to certain levels and rates of
change. That's the input side.

I would also have established stealth points for
manipulating the markets. That's the output side. Who
is to say how many bonds are floating around, who is
buying them, and with what, and where that money will go?

Good luck, pal. I'm tempted to charge a $500 bet against
you on my untapped Visa card. : ) Do you take American
Express?


Sheller - re: LGB analysis. You have a creepy side, Mike. : ) Give me
a fortune for Oct. 3, 1958, 6 am in the morning, Redondo
Beach, CA. : )

Front - my wife disagrees. Since Canada wouldn't become American,
she swapped borders. : )

Greenspan, Fed gov

You do Puetz wrong
To trash his crash
So discourteously

For he has timed it
For so long
And all for the love of moon beliefs.

Steve Puetz your Sat Aug 23 1997 15:29 re eclipses. Has this been updated at all?
Would be obliged if you could post these dates you referred to:
( a ) Collapse of Tulip Mania, and which calendar is used for this date?
( b ) The gold and silver crash of 1920
( c ) The Crash of the Mississippi Bubble in 1720.
( d ) The soybean Crash of 1977

Thank you in anticipation

aurator

Hello all. Got back from the Azores
a couple of weeks ago. Catching up on all the exciting deveopments
I missed. Not much in the way of English news over there. The gold charts are not looking very healthy. With the action in gold stocks today and the upcoming Comex option expiry this week, we may be looking at 285 to 310 gold by the end of next week. The big boys seem to be at it again. If you cant beat them.............

ALL: As it seems to be slow night, and gold seems to be teetering on the edge of the abyss, I thought I'd post this joke a friend just sent me. ( Tort isn't around to object, is he? )

A guy goes into confession and says to the priest, "Father, I'm 80
years old, married, have four kids and 11 grandchildren, and last
night I had an affair and I made love to two 18 year old girls. Both
of them. Twice."

The priest said: "Well, my son, when was the last time you were in
confession?"

"Never Father, I'm Jewish."

"So then, why are you telling me?"

"Because, I'm telling everybody."

UPDATE: EBN Gold down .40.

Who Cares re: your poetry. Don't give up your day job.

Yellow Jacket--you're right yj's carry a nasty sting. Nothing compared to the ones at the Singapore Futures Exchange though. Ask Nick Leeson in about five more years!

Strad Master: do you have a professional opinion on Eugene Fodor? He came by my wife's art gallery the other day. He is doing a performane here soon. Worthwhile?

ALL,

ERRRRRR....maybe i'm too sensitive........ :~ ) .....
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/08/z0009_47.html
another MASSIVE SELLING?SHOW TIME...............

WATCHER: Knowing Gene ( vaguely ) personally and knowing all the problems he's been though, I'm a little surprised that he's still concertizing! If he is, by all means go. He puts on a good show. I don't agree with a lot of what he does musically but, so what? I'm sure it'll be enjoyable. Besides, I'm all in favor of supporting my colleagues. If you do go, let me know how you like it. What kind of art gallery does your wife have?

SHEK: Your insight re LBG may well be correct. There are some that come on a board like this and play with people, like a cat playing with a shrew.

I have heard it said by a well known US analyst ( forget who ) that the A$, being the worlds sixth most traded currency, and commodity driven, would signal an end to the bull if and when a sustained run on the A$ occurs as a precursor to strong commodity price increases. Any views out there on the A$ being an indicator of market direction?

Ron, The Constitution of the United States Document is probably the most important piece of paper ever written since the beginning of time. "Us Canadians" are still using a model of your document in etching our own constitution, but as par-usual we have ton of chefs and not a ton of substance. Maybe you saw the Pierre Elliot Beans Recipe I was discussing afew nights ago, similar ingredients. There's always three sides to a story, yourside, my side and the truth!! Were still lookin for the truth, but can't seem to locate it, you people have it, but you got to protect it from self serving factions. We've all got to be more critical of abrupted change in constitution policies, gold the down trodden is the
monetary medium, we'll get ourselves out of this mess, its God send!!

Puetz, You could very well be a patriarch of Goldsville in 30-90 days, you ole dawg!!

Sorry, thats Australian dollar

( For those of you who have commented on the similarity of 1987 to the present, here is the replica of the 1987 "trigger" ) .

The dollar tumbled against the yen, posting its biggest one- day decline since Aug. 8, after U.S.
Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned that Japan shouldn't resort to exports to
boost its economy. The U.S. currency fell as low as 118.40 yen, according to the Bank of Japan.
That's the lowest since Aug. 28. It was last quoted at 118.80 yen, down from 121.15 yen in late
New York trading yesterday. It was also quoted at 1.8100 marks, up from 1.8081 in New York.
In an interview with the Financial Times yesterday, Summers said he's ``concerned that Japan does
what's necessary to achieve the domestic-demand-led growth to which it's committed and avoid
the export-led growth that has been a hallmark of many past Japanese recoveries.'' The dollar often
declines when U.S. Treasury officials express concern that Japan may be trying to boost its
economy through exports. Such remarks prompt speculation the U.S. may change its strong-dollar
policy.

Andy Smith comments on the granting of licenses to import gold to India.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/08/y0023_z00_29.html

Brazilian inflation rate at 6% and declining.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/08/z0000_z00_31.html

64 Insurers downgraded. Profits have come from stock market gain and not from core insurance business. Market failure would impair operations.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/97/09/08/y0017_y00_1.html

Stock prices are acting in much the same way they acted when both the 1987 and 1929 blow-offs came to an end.
David Shulman of Salomon Brothers
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hope this doesn't invalidate the correlation that has been observed by some on Kitco.

Impact of 7 licenses from the Indian gold dealers point of view.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/08/y0004_z00_6.html

Tietmeyer says European unemployment and Asia currency crisis are the worlds two biggest economic problems.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/08/z0009_45.html

Asian currency crisis has caused significant dropoff in demand for industrial metals. Production cutbacks throughout Asia, especially Japan, have not yet been factored into prices. ( deflation? )
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/08/y0023_z00_30.html

I can't imagine a better example of a deflationary downward spiral than the two posts at 6:35 and 6:47 read together. What we are seeing in industrial metals must be happening in many industries. Unemployment in Europe and Asia will worsen, prices will decrease even more as demand slackens. Profits of all companies associated with these industries will be reduced, their ability to pay their debts will be impaired, those who lent to them will be weakened.

Mornin Donald and ALL...Dollar down "big time" ( 2.31 ) versus Yen @ 118.85
...Dec. Gold down .60 @ 3-2-4....Weather: 62 degrees with sun breaking through a heavy fog...

Asian currency crisis causes reduced palm oil demand and lower prices.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/07/z0009_26.html

December gold down 80 cents this morning despite softer dollar. Joberg off 0.6%. Gold and gold stocks now poised to drop sharply the next week or two. But I do think this prospective selling climax will set the stage for the long awaited turnaround.

Ted, its good that you have brought Donald into the fold. He needs friends being in LA and all. Pretty soon he'll be asking for weather reports and jokes. Markets look about as exciting as Congressional hearings this morning. Knowing that both of you could use a joke I post the following:

A man was walking along the beach and found a bottle. He looked
around and didn't see anyone so he opened the bottle. A genie
appeared and thanked the man for letting him out. The genie said, "I
am so grateful to get out of that bottle that I will grant you one
wish. I can only grant one."

The man thought for a while and finally said, "I have always wanted to
go to Hawaii. I've never been able to go because I cannot fly.
Airplanes are much too frightening for me. On a boat, I see all that
water and I become very claustrophobic. So I wish for a road to be
built from here to Hawaii.

The genie thought for a few minutes and finally said, "No, I don't
think I can do that. Just think of all the work involved. Consider
all the piling needed to hold up a highway and how deep they would
have to go to reach the bottom of the ocean. Imagine all the
pavement needed. No, that is just too much to ask."

The man thought for a few minutes and then told the genie, "There is
one other thing I have always wanted. I would like to be able to
understand women. What makes them laugh and cry, why are they
temperamental, why are they so difficult to get along with. Basically,
what makes them tick."

The genie considered for a few minutes and said, "So, do you want two
lanes or four?"

Good Morning Ted. We temp and humidity at 63, it's a gray morning with two days of rain forecast but not started yet. That dollar drop is all the result of the Larry Summers interview in the London FT ( posted last night ) .

Sometime back you stated that you thought that most welfare recipients wre elderly white women and were surprised that New Mexico was different. I was going to respond but my comment button wouldn't work and then I forgot. I don't think that is the case here. Most of my clients are rich old women. Here the women control the money. The last sentence draws its conclusion from my own household.

TORTFEASOR: That was a great joke, the one about my living in LA I mean. I live in Connecticut although I will consider moving to LA if Strad Master will tell me where he buys his gas! Actually all your jokes are good, mine usually are not suitable for this forum. Do you remember the Lone Ranger one I e.mailed to you?

Mornin Tort! 7:28 joke a classic.....Bejing 76 degrees and cloudy...

Donald: Tort was referring to Nick ( L.A. ) who doesn't like to read weather reports or JOKES @ Kitco...Too bad buddy! Let's see L.A. forcast: SMOG

Donald, now that you mention it, the Masked Man does come to mind. Sorry about the case of mistaken identity. For some reason I thought you were posting from LA. You can get cheap gas here at any Mexico resteraunt. It won't cut down your commuting expenses though.

Coconut oil prices fall due to fall in Philippine peso.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/08/z0009_15.html

September 9 1997
MIDDLE EAST




Israeli alert on eve of Albright
mission

Jerusalem: Israel yesterday placed its security forces on high
alert while Palestinian police began rounding up Islamic
militants in anticipation of tomorrow's peace mission by
Madeleine Albright, the US Secretary of State ( Christopher
Walker writes ) .

"We know that in essence there is an aim of torpedoing this
visit," Avigdor Kahalani, the Israeli Internal Security
Minister, said. "What could happen is the same action  the
kind of action as happened last week," he said, referring to
the triple suicide bombing by Islamic extremists.

Yesterday Jerusalem was like an armed camp with heavily
armed patrols adding to the air of anxiety that has gripped
the Holy City. "How can they hope to stop madmen who
want to blow themselves and us to pieces?" asked a
shopkeeper on Ben Yehuda street where last week's suicide
attacks took place.

By nightfall the Palestinians had rounded up 35 militants. A
spokesman refuse to name the locations where the arrests
took place. Israeli officials had been hoping that hundreds of
supporters of Hamas and Islamic Jihad would be detained.

WHO CARES: You like walks in the park, your favorite color is gold, and rainy days and Great Depressions get you down. ( :- ) So you think you can call me a creep and get a free reading? Ok! I'm easy. Drop me an email at the above address with your address. I have one all ready for you.

Japan had more cash and no real debt just before their crash. They failed to control it. I am not so sure that Greenspan can do it again this time with far fewer resources. I agree he has done it many times in the past, but this time I think that he will be overwhelmed, besides he thinks that the markets is at least 20% overvalued according to his own models.

All:

Another jump in lease rates for silver. Now better than 3.5% for one month. This puts the metal backwards in core European currencies. It appears that there is very strong Indian demand at the moment and a little bit of physical accumulation going on by some speculators. The big technical fund players are not yet in on the long side and some are still short. The last time lease rates were this high was when Phibro was squeezing the market a few years back. Silver rallied $1.50 in no time. If this tightness is not due to spec accumulation but just strong demand we may be at the start of something big.

Should silver spike upwards this will no doubt shrink the gold / silver ratio furthur. This ratio used to be a very good proxy for the relative performance of stocks / bonds. A strong rise in silver probably won't be good for bonds. In the current precarious state of the stock market, a decline in bonds would be recieved very poorly. Just another cat-a-lyst lurking in the shadows.

Mr. Puetz: What vehicle do you recommend to those who agree
with your Dow crash predictions to capitalize upon it? I have
heard RYDEX URSA, the Robertson Stephens Contrarian Fund,
S&P full and mini puts, options, etc. being mentioned. Do you
have any favorites? I like the URSA because you do not face
margin calls. Thanks in advance for your comments.

...no wonder Mr. Munk, is in 'no hurry' to buy forward hedges back...he like others are taking advantage of depressed gold prices to clean up their balance sheet...oh yes there's also good news. Go NEM!
The gold giant said it will take a non-cash provision of US$385 million, net of tax, in the third quarter to cover the writedown
of the carrying values of El Indio and Tambo mines in Chile and Bullfrog, Mercur and Pinson in the United States.
http://www.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BARRICK-ABXTO-UNVE.html

London Bullion Marketing Association ( LBMA ) is best described as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Daily gold trading nearly 50% yearly production. Who & Why?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron907.html

D.A. : What would it take for your systems to go long gold??? ( what developments need to happen )

Who Cares:

I quote:

"Front - my wife disagrees. Since Canada wouldn't become American,
she swapped borders. : ) "

Geez, It's actually wonderful that she decided to improve her lifestyle by moving to Canada though isn't it! ( :- ) .... I'm sure our welfare state will take care of her. So Mr. Who Cares, when can we expect you to join your wife in God's country ? ( :- )

Take Care ....

TTFN

test

Front & Who Cares ,

Funny, I thought Canada was in America. According to most of the maps and geography books I've referenced ( including those written and published in Canada ) , everything from Queen Elizabeth Islands to Cape Horn is "American" - North, Central, or South. I've always found it amusing that the rest of the world ( including Canadians ) categorized United States citizens as simply "Americans" rather than some other handle... "Yanks" would be much more appropriate/descriptive/amusing.... : )

And, my fellow Americans, as to the term "freedom" and the varying degrees of such within the Americas today, well, that would be a wonderful KITCO topic of discussion for a slow Sunday.

EB, how's platinum doing? Do you really think delivery of Russian platinum will affect the short term ( 1 -3 months ) price? Yesterday seemed volatile, but not ( YET? ) devastating...

General, good question and I'm interested in the answers....

( O.K, I'll go back to my crawl space now...... )

I have noticed that those who live in the US are often introspective in their analysis of the economic situation. If the US stock market is surging, it must be because the earnings of US companies are increaing, or US interest rates are decreasing, or there is no evidence of inflation in the US, etc etc. They generally do not even consider the possibility that the major influence on US stocks and bonds, and the whole US economy, may be external.

Greenspan has not held things together thus far. Messrs Greenspan, Rubin and Clinton have been and continue to be the beneficiaries of circumstances which are out of their control. These gentlemen did not initiate the movement towards European monetary union which has driven capital from Europe to the US. They did not manufacture a prolonged recession in Japan which has caused Japanese capital to flood into US financial assets. Most recently, they did not orchestrate the Asian currency crisis which chased even more capital into the US.

The global conditions which have resulted in enormous capital flows into US assets continue to prevail. All Greenspan and Co. have to do to maintain this situation is - NOTHING.

Later......Milhouse

ALL: Gold off a dime after yesterdays retreat, silver up .07 to 4.76 EBN. The XAU is .5 or so last look, most gold/silver stocks up a bit, don't they know that they are supposed to go down? Charts, gurus, and many here say down down down. Is this a dead cat bounce or do these stocks know something we don't??????

XAU is .5 or so = UP .5 or so!

Steve Puetz: Are the market ( s ) still fitting your model? Where would they need to be by say, week's end, to remain so?

Roebear: Divergence?

Please check into Greenspan's international trips. ; )

MILHOUSE: What you failed to state is that capital would not be coming to the US unless it was a desirable place to invest, at the guidance of AG et al. Thus credit should be given where credit is due. External events have merely emphazied the quality of a US investment. The US will only be a desirous place for capital to flow as long as economic conditions are more favorable in this country than elsewhere - and thus it is axiomatically important to look at the domestic picture.

Touche - My wife has no intention of returning to Canada until
everyone owns assault weapons. I'm glad she kept the citizenship,
though, I might need a leg hacked off someday. : )

Everyone *knows* that Greenspan coordinated the central bank
bailout of U.S. bonds for the past few years, right? : ) Or
does everyone believe that central banks around the world
just *coincidentally* began buying U.S. debt when private
investors quit? : )

The words that spring to my mind whenever I read about Greenspan,
the international community, and conspiracies -

"If we don't all hang together, we will all most assuredly hang
separately". : )

Go Greenspan. Go Clinton! I say America is good for one more
skinning!

Puetz....Re your Monday 23:28...Your predicted the market will
crash on or before Thursday of this week. Is this correct?

Gunnrunner - I had written you some good words regarding Plat. and then my computer decided I had performed a fatal error and shut me down...aaaaarrrrgggghhhhhhh!!! I'm running three netscapes this a.m. and I got punished...that damn Comex does it every time ;- (
Here goes AGAIN: I have/had some options that expire Friday and was not encouraged by the Russian deliveries and Sales. So I 'covered' much of my october but none of my Jan. I was w/w last night for any moves 'south' and it looked very encouraging under the circumstances. I will let the rest expire on Friday and see what happens...maybe ;- ) .
I think the supply situation is STILL very tight ( as shown in the prices ) and this will not change 1-3 months from now ( imnsho ) . Everything still points to bullish aside from the usual profit-taking/corrections ( what have you ) . I will still continue to be an active player here and I agree with RJ that we will see 430-500+ range in 1998. Didn't they have to sell gold to pay the miners? Hmmmmmmm... fundamentals are good as are the technicals...I am paying close attention to stochastics here...it seems to work nice in this choppy market...Again, imnsho...GO FOR IT!!

Did you see the YEN liftoff? I am Very upset with myself AND my net-provider that I didn't use my time this weekend to build more position here. I KNEW it was ready to explode ( it was sideways for too long 3-4days ) and it DID! I have a small position and am happy for that though, but it should have been BIGGER...Damn! I ONLY blame myself. I guess we'll add on the dip, it's not over yet...maybe. I truly LOVE trading the currencies, it is my Favorite...oh my!

D.A. - Thanks for the silver comments. It does seem like it's on the launching pad. I am reminded of my Cat when he gets ready to pounce...he scoooches back on his haunches and get real low and then when you least expect it...BAM! ( essence of emeril ) . What about that damn Dmark? What a DOG like Gold. Have you guys built any position yet? I guess investors have lost all hope and like the US$ and YEN...that's when I start liking something else. A few comments on the Mark??

Ted - mornin'! Sun is peeking out, it will be another GREAT day in Cal. Gotta love it! What say you on the prices this a.m? Did you and Hank check out that game last night?? What a finish! Those Raiders let 'em back in the game toooo many times. Did you see Al-in-the-box? ( Davis ) yuk, yuk.

GOOD DAY ALL!!

away...ching-ching...$$$$$$
EB

My Mike Sheller Disclaimer is in place for all the 'innocent-would-be-rookie-lamb-to-slaughter-led-by-the-nose-newsletter-reading-investors'...or something like that ;-^ ) .

AWAY.CAUSE.I.AM.HUNGRY.
eb

No no no. Japan was in so much debt BEFORE their crash, it wasn't
funny. That's a myth perpetrated by the Japanese Visitor Council.

Their houses were leveraged up to 100 years into the future,
consumer credit card debt was sky-high, substantially higher
than the U.S. in 90, stocks were at P/Es of 60, 70, and their
federal deficit was masked through some kind of gimmick similar
to ours.

In fact, Japan is the model that calms my heart when I read
about Puetz's lunatic cycles. ; ) I mean, DAMN SAM, they've
kept the thing from imploding for SEVEN years now. It's
unbelievable. The big difference between now and 1929 is
that we have a mechanism for keeping the general population
brainwashed - television. Heck, look at the Soviet Union. They
kept that dang thing going like TEN YEARS after it was washed
up. I say Greenspan buys two more years, then Y2K finally
triggers the panic. Y2K is a joke, but the brainwashing mechanism
is working in reverse on it. ; )

Greenspan's brief reference to gold in his latest speech says it all.
Gold is no longer an anchor. Just look at our present day "modern democracy" and see what we value, paper,synthetics,and cheap generic
everything.It does'nt look good,guys.Sorry for being so negative but I am taking a financail beating and I am damn sick of it.

Every dog has it's day...

away ;- )
eb

I don't really time for this, you damn guys, why didn't you post
interesting stuff over the weekend?

Of course Greenspan's model shows the market 20% overvalued. His
goal, IMHO, is to stagnant the market. He'd probably be happy to
shave 2K off of it. But the major goal is to slow down growth,
spook money into bonds, drive down 30-year rates BELOW 5.7%.

If he accomplishes those things, I think that he will stave off
deflation. I have two competing models on interest rates. I got
Pretcher's cycles, which says that if that 5.7% barrier isn't
broken, we're in serious trouble, the peak low has passed and
interest rates can only rise.

Then I got Dent/Yardini model, which says that boomers will create
huge savings, driving down rates. Ergo, 5.5-5% should be possible,
given the right conditions.

The key is, which one is right?

URIS: If you're gettin' beat to death, take your head out of the mixer.

Who Cares: "Y2K is a joke, but the brainwashing mechanism
is working in reverse on it."
Well, if Y2K was a joke than I have a damn hard time to make money
as a comedian. Oh, BTW, I thought that fixing my kitchen stove is easy
until I took it appart and could not figure out which vire does what :-o

Y2K things reminds me the market - everybody ( even the Joe who cleans
our office ) "knows" and has "very accurate" prediction how it will
behave, yet, most of them are wrong.

I Finally got a copy of James Sanders book "The Downing Of TWA Flight 800". I would urge all to read it. Much of this information has been available on the net for over a year. In my opinion this tragic farce will be recorded as a seminal usa historic event. It lays bare a rotten core at the backbone of our country. In order for this cover up to even be attempted the following elements of usa society must be controlled by people who are dishonest and anti-democratic ( or perhaps just afraid for their lives ) .

o The executive branch of the federal government.

o The legeslative branch of the federal govenment

o The Joint Chiefs of Staff

o The Department of the Navy

o The Federal Bureau of Investigation

o The Coast Guard

o The National Transportation Safety Board

o The Air National Guard

o The "free press" in its various corporate forms

o Much of the small investigative "press"

A few brave souls risked much to tell the truth but most were brought over to the dark side. So what makes this farce so different from the hundreds if not thousands of official lies we are subjected to each year? Hundreds of people saw the event! They are saying don't believe your eyes, believe me. Then they are feeding us a story which cannot believed by an astute seventh grader. Is the public so blind/unconcerned when we are being killed ( albiet accidently ) that we do not demand an honest accounting? What has all this to do with gold? These are the same people who are telling us that the various government financial debts will be repaid.

WHO CARES: In case you missed it, see my 8:37 to you. It's all done.
EB: NOTE: The thoughts and analyses expressed in this post are speculation. The reader must choose how much of the material presented herein should be used to apply to his/her own personal market activities. Any comments, predictions, or speculations concerning companies, investments, or investment markets are for research and educational purposes and may be subject to error. Past patterns and occurences in financial markets, whether in relation to astrology or any other form of analysis or strategy, may not always be reliable indicators of future activity. Readers are advised of the potential risk of capital loss in any uninsured investment, including stocks, bonds, gold bullion, futures, and other investment vehicles. Even paper money issued by lawfully constituted governments, including the Treasury of the United States of America, carries no guarantee that its purchasing power and relative value will remain intact and not erode over time. Information contained in this post may have been gathered from many sources, believed to be reliable, but no guarantee can be made as to the accuracy of such information. The issuer of this post is not a dealer or broker in investments, neither stocks, bonds, gold, or other investments. The issuer of this post may have a position in the securities, commodities, or investments mentioned. The issuer of this post presents the material herein as proprietary opinion and research and is not acting in any investment advisory capacity. Readers are advised to consult with their own personal or corporate sources of financial or market counsel. All choices made by readers of this post based on the information contained herein are the responsibility of the reader. It is the right of every person in a free society to use the information presented herein as they best see fit.

I support your dim view of the current gold market and its prospects given the present global economic situation.

When I first posted to kitco in January this year I indicated that gold itself is a poor investment compared to gold mining exploration companies with good reserve prospects. Since that time the price of gold has dropped by about 10% while small gold miners and developers and, specifically, my gold explorer stocks are down 'more than' 10 percent.

At first blush, in retrospect, owning gold rather than my BGO/AZS stocks would have been better only for the reason that gold price didn't drop as much as gold share prices.

If investment were simply a matter of looking at charts and guaging the trend then all profits would tend to peter out to a mean. Investing, to a great degree not otherwise well documented, involves a good deal of luck at key periods of time in anyone's investment career.

Warren Buffet would not have achieved such a well deserved record of componded growth if he had not made a killing about twenty five years ago on a specific holding that - in effect - ramped his earning growth record into the stratosphere. I am sorry that I can't remember the specific stock or play or time that I read many years ago on Warren's investment career but perhaps another Kitco Buffet fan may describe the specific 'Soros type' investment event that made Buffet a great fortune in his earlier career that still skews his 'normalized' long-term growth rate much like Templeton's savy in Japan after WWII greatly enhanced his investment reputation and business career.

My career batting average for the last ten years was just under 20% compound growth. I guessed wrong and bet heavy in gold stocks so my ten year average is now about 5% compound growth. I'm still up but certainly not a happy camper "at this time".

My own investment career is distinguished by incorrect timing: I tend to get the investment right but the timing off.

I invested in BGO/AZS only because they have found a world class gold reserve that has a high probability of becoming a mine that will produce gold for a 'cash' cost of about $100 per oz.

I did not expect that the price of gold would sink so fast and the DOW continue to extend itself this long in the cycle. I was betting on a take-over of BGO just as Agripula, Peru ( spelling ? ) was taken out by ABX for $1 Bill. for 10 Mil. oz. rich gold vein in July/96. That's my error in judgement - poor timing.

Looking at the BGO/AZS Cerro caslae play in detail and gold mining in general we can identify the following investment merits:

The capital costs of Cerro Casale should add another $100 per oz. so total costs should be about $200/oz after copper credits are taken into account. The capital cost amount ( $100/oz. ) could be high as the pipeline and port upgrade facility could be defered or eliminated by focusing on higher grades open pit mining and in-situ leaching technologies that would produce millions of ozs. of gold at more rapid rates of return instead of the 15- 19 yr. project considered in the Scoping Study. Granted, the total quantity mined would be less than 15 mil. ozs. but if you could mine 7.5 mil ozs. at $100 cash cost in ten yrs. the Cerro Casale would have a net profit before tax resource in the ground worth ( $300 - $100 x 7.5 Mil ozs. = ) $1.5 Billion. Let's take off 25% in royalties ( if Chile bring in law ) and inc. taxes ( which is high ) so the net in ground shareholder value is about $1.1 Bill.

AZS owns 51% or about $500 Mil worth - using my scenario, or about US $12+ per share ( 40 Million shares outstanding ) .

Now if you reflect on my rationale ( which probably is close to your reason for owning BGO ) the investment merits of owning BGO/AZS can be better appreciated in context of the big picture - irrespective of gold price:

First, gold miners with proven reserves supported by 'bankable feasibility studies' have good prospects of arranging syndicated capital finance using the ore reserves in the ground as collateral. ( I suggest that the 'grand' project design of Cerro casale could be reduced significantly to exclude the 'grand' capital costs Scoped recently. )

Second, the gold market is unique in that is allows miners with proven reserves to sell gold at futures prices before the gold is actually mined - the AXU Big Boys, especially ABX, have generated considerable revenue this way.

Finally, with reference to the last point, the OZ miners in particular have shown a keen interest in selling gold forward, even in these bad gold price days, to break-even ( avg. total cost of OZ gold is $327 and $260 'cash' cost - source Nesbitt Burns / WCG ) .

In summary, even though the gold price stinks and there doesn't appear to be light at the end of the tunnel it is still a great business to find economic gold that could be mined for a total cost well under the current historic spot lows.

The CBs are not in the business of gold trading. The main objective of CBs is domestic currency and monetary stability. When the US, IMF, France, Italy, Britain, and Germany start to dump gold THEN we will have a serious problem indeed.

The OZ gold sale was stupid since it did not consider the impact on its gold mining industry - the world's third biggest. To this day we still read the spin articles that mention the OZ gold sale as the single most decisive factor of all CB gold sales in the decline of gold prices to its current trading range - irrespective of the market absorption prior to the announcement.

So my view is that BGO/AZS have a considerable economic resource that eventually will be mined at low cost. My assumption is that gold price would need to trade not far from its $300+ range. As was stated earlier by others, all the bad news is out and gold still is holding its range even though each week we read posts that 'this week' will be the test...'wait until Friday'...

The only thing that matters now is to keep a cool head and don't get shook-out of a position that is fundamentally correct. If BGO/AZS turned out to be another BRE-X then we would certainly be big losers. Until evidence suggests otherwise, BGO/AZS have a world class open pittable resource discovery in a stable mining nation ( compared to Indonesia ) and the merits of the project and associated costs in relation to the current gold price still point to each companies, especially AZS, undervalued market cap.

It is propbaly a result of the majority of investors in gold stocks who look ( as I do ) for a double play within the next month only to be confounded by bad luck and timing. The waiting game ensues and weak hands depress the companies values while sharp bottom players with longer-term focus buy the stocks while in the distribution phase and await a high probability weighted and calculated reward 2-3 years hence.

Cheers

bw: Another conspiracy theory book! The problem I have with all these conspiracies is that if there are SO many people involved, how come only a miniscule handful ever come forward to tell the "truth". We're talking THOUSANDS of people here. This theory is just as crackpot as hearing Richard Hoagland on Art Bell last night talking about how EVERYONE in NASA is hiding the "truth" about UFO's and a lost civilization on Mars! Is no one willing to accept the fact that sometimes accidents happen? ( Of course, we all know that Princess Di was murdered by the Queen, right? ) The bottom line is that with all the "conspiracies" that have cropped up in the last 25 years - NOT ONE ( count 'em - 0%, nada, niente ) has ever been later revealed to have ANY substance. Give me a break!

To whomever has time to reply:

A lunchtime request for input/opinions regarding technical analysis methods.

I am endeavouring to design a TA software package for my own use and
would like any input from Kitcoites regarding the following :

NOTE: ( my first target is a single gold mutual fund daily closing NAV )

1. Programming language to use?

I would like the program to be able to analyze past patterns on a given dataset. Initially to be straight price, however later I would modify to include volume, open interest etc. Then it would repeatedly test/evaluate indicators against this historic data.
My goal is to have scalable pattern recognition which could be overlayed on the current market situation. Indicators would be weighted according to accuracy - if flipping a coin turned out to be more reliable, then I'd like to know it.

I am very familiar with: Foxpro, DBase+, Foxplus, Pascal OOP
I have worked with: SQL, Paradox, Visual Basic, Access 2.0 & 7.0
I have forgotten: SAS, Fortran, Cobol, Basic

What current language package would be able to accomodate the program - to be used at the PC level ONLY - keeping in mind that multiple/recursive evaluation routines will be used.
( Aiming ultimately at random fractal emulations for said pattern extrapolations with a simple probability distribution curve as the output. e.g: 80% probability that the price will drop within two weeks )

2. What seem to be the most reliable indicators to test?
e.g.: Moving avg - Exponential, weighted etc. and period length ( 29 day etc. )
MacD, Std dev, stochastics ( where can I find the actual formulas? )
Cycle analysis ( lunar, elliot wave, fibonacci - whatever - my point is to analyze their historic validity and then re-test in various time frames. I first need to know how they are designed )

3. What external events or measures seem most influential?
Interest rates, CPI, JOC, XAU, HUI, DOW, S&P500, S&P600, R2000...?
PM mutual funds, Individual PM related stocks and Spot/Futures prices?

Any and all comments would be appreciated - I don't want to buy someone else's package.
Re-invent the wheel? No, I just want to get an idea of what the other wheel designs are.
I figured this forum MUST have some experience behind it.

Thanks in advance, C. M. Hobart

PS If the email police get me, ( or no responses ) I'll go back to my cave.

bw: And now we hear that Clinton bugged the APEC conference!

Strad: What determines 'substance'? Dan Rathers' endorsement? Bill Clinton's admission that drugs were dropped in Mena? Guilty parties rarely say, 'Gosh-you got me there...here's how it happened'. Only in Scooby Doo episodes do we see this. There are knowledgable people who saw a missle ( or ordanance ) and they are ignored by the investigators! I saw this for myself on C-SPAN. A memeber of Congress asked the head FBI guy in charge about the eyewitnesses. The FBI guy said something to the effect that there was nothing to their reports. The Congress person nodded, no follow up, nothing. OK MR. FBI guy, if you say so, it must be true. Oh yeah- the 'black helicopters' landed here in Charlotte recently. It was on the news.

very insightful on the TWA 800 analysis. thanks for telling us
about the book.

BW- No one cares about the rotten core. We are all making money, so where's the harm? Yeah, Clinton's a crook, as was Bush. I admit the FBI scares me a bit, but I keep my nose clean. I work all day for my 401K. I don't care what goes on outside my neighborhood, and as for my neighborhood, we're all armed. This amoral society sure makes investing fun.

Donald, Shek and other re: Y2K - I'm a computer guy. Seen the programming thing up close. Know those who know about Year 2-0-0-0. Is it possible that the 1999 intro of the Euro just one year prior to Y2K is NOT a coincidence? The europeans are much longer range than we are. Possibly they have had this in their sights for quite some time and are going to make some hay on it. In fact a new currency requires a new infrastruture ( computers ) to handle it. I fact ISO 9000 and other quality standards came from europe not us. New infrastructure built with Y2K in mind. Also they know that when the brass ring comes around there will be *one chance* to grab back european dominance that was forfieted between WW I and II. If it was you, what would you do?

JIN - It seems that the market is up because of your government's promise to sustain its high levels. This is a no brain'r. Where ever the US$20b is coming from ( pension funds ) to keep the market safe,it will go into those pockets who are *selling* stocks now. Then the market will crash *big time*. IMHO. It seems to me that your PM is giving his wealthy friends a way of escaping this crash. All the little people will get crushed. Sorry for such a negative reading on your situation. BTW, Jin, thank you for your posts, which give us the inside man-a-the-scene news.

September 9, 1997

Barrick to close mines, cut costs

TORONTO ( CP ) - Barrick Gold Corp., Canada's largest gold producer, will close some of its mines and cut costs to cope with sagging world prices for precious metals.
The Toronto-based company said today it would set aside $385 million on its books to cover writedowns on its El Indio and Tambo mines in Chile and the Bullfrog, Mercur and Pinson mines in the United States.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Barrick-Closures.html

Craig: Get a dart board, place the signs of the Zodiac on it, get a bunch of different "flavored" darts ( gold, platinum, silver, etc. ) , throw them at the board, and then call Mike Sheller in the morning. ; )

WHO CARES ??? The answer to that one should be clear if you only have those 2 options. Baby boomers are puting all money in stock market and none in the bank. They are borrowing at an all time rate and taking money out of banks, not puting in.

BOB:
My suspicion is that your present paper losses may be small compared to your future actual gains. Many a time I've had stocks down by 50% to go on later to make substantial profits. You probably have also. I've used the present weakness to add considerably to my holdings of junior gold stocks. I've used Adrian Day's advice and I'm about even for the past year which is guess is not bad for this market. Only Eldorado gold is down and I doubled up on it. Euro Nevada is up nicely. Bob, good luck; I've learned never to count losses or gains while you are still holding the stock. You've probably learned the same lesson.

ALL....Hope to be around more than I have for the last couple of weeks...Been busy/gone for most of the past couple....Maybe back to normal now...I am ready to make some money....

Thanks,

Been there, done that - except for the phone call ( why else do ya' think I'm *still* lookin at GOLD!? ) My current favorite is to offer my 6 month old a dollar in one hand and a gold coin in the other - the coin is still useable... :-

Conspiracy theories that have been vindicated:

( 1 ) Watergate

( 2 ) Iran-Contra

( 3 ) Bre-X

To Puetz, The mutual funds must be desperate for new cash. My broker called last week and offered to allow me to buy any Load Mutual Fund commission free if I would turn cash into a stock mutual fund. The brokerage house and the mutual funds were willing to waive commissions. I guess that this is what one calls desperate deflation of commissions. I don't want to embarrass this large brokerage house by stating the name.
My feeling that this offer was a desparate offer and that a panic is beginning among the mutual funds. Perhaps I am reading too much into this. I don't know if the offer was legal. I've never heard of a broker willing to work commission free before; I wonder if the mutual funds were offering him something.

Craig:

Have you ever looked at "Brainmaker" which is a neural net program. I found it difficult to use and it always gave me a headache but I also found that its predictive ability was outstanding.

Woof! Woof! Just practicing! ( ;O )

The rumor on the trading floor is that Fuji stepped up today with a 15 million dollar purchase of spot silver today. This is a good sign that they think silver will not go lower.

Gold is so very sick. New lows soon. Even a silver rally will not spill significantly into gold. I am still long silver and platinum, and short gold. I've read some nervous words about platinum recently.Relax, the volatility will continue. Any buys at $410 or lower are winners. I love to see more Russian shipments, each time a shipment arrives, the Japanese find that there still is not enough to go around.

For the rest of youse guys who think the equities will crash soon, get a life. NASDAQ at record highs, S&P, DOW recovering nicely. Wait a minute.. when the DOW dropped a couple weeks ago, some here called it the start of the end. These are the same who have called every drop in the DOW the beginning of the end. Oh well they will probably continue to make these same pronouncements all the way to 10K on the DOW. When a healthy correction comes along - 10% or better - these same people will stick their head in the sand and repeat their mantra over and over, "Stocks will crash. Stocks will crash.Buy gold now." The rest of us will make $ where we can..Platinum and silver for now, gold later.

For the rest The US Mint should release the Platinum American Eagle on 9/23/97. We began taking orders yesterday for delivery sometime in October. The current premium is about $26 above spot, about $9 higher than a Platinum Maple Leaf.

No new info on the Mounty, I expect to know more by the end of the month. That's it for now, I took the day off today and I refuse to spend it in front of the computer, the ocean calls.

Awaaaaaaaay..To the beach

Who Cares: I agree with your assessment, Greenspan would like a controlled, slow, deflation of stocks and a heavy flow of money into bonds. I would add he would also like to keep commodity prices down, especially oil, to slow inflation. Also, with the world currency crisis, keeping gold down would certainly be advantageous for the dollar.
The questions is, can he pull it off?

bw: A conspiracy does not require all participants to be willing accomplists. A few powerful people capable of intimidation is all that is necessary. Intimidation can come in many forms. The most effective is intellectual intimidation. ( ie: "Only a right-wing, comet chasing, bubba, would dare question our version of the events" )

Gunrunner:

You're right, that'd really make a Sunday lively wouldn't it! I could just imagine the things Oldman might post ( :- ) ) The reason all the American and Canadian books are that way is that they were produced by Americans ( Yanks if you will ) We lost our publishing a long time ago through just plain neglect and greed. A sorry state of affairs ! America can print it cheaper because of volume and we go for profits here rather than correctness !

Who Cares:

Now that's the kind of girl for me ! A gun toteing socialist ! My type of LADY ! I'd worry more about shotgun wounds than amputations though by the sound of it ! Take Care ...

TTFN

Considering mutual funds, I recently heard or read the statement that there are more individual mutual funds, than there are individual stocks.
Does any anyone know if this can be verified?
Also, does anyone know if there is an internet source/web-site ( -preferably free ) , that monitors the current cash/net inflows & outflows, and liquidations/redemptions etc., of mutual funds?
An e-mail reply from any of you would be sincerely appreciated.
Thanks,
David Blair Macrory
San Diego

I'm not sure what you are into in gold stocks. But I bet you can't beat the 75% I lost in a bio stock ( real loss ) . I thought very long and hard about that lesson. Its like going to school. The tuition and all. I'm am sure that you are a better investor than I am and will recover your 'losses' when things turn around. We are at the bottom of a cycle. I believe GSC about the competition from the US$ being the thing that is keeping the lid on PM prices, etc. How will this present US$ situation become any better than it already is? In other words, where but down from here for the US$ ( Apparently hit the skids vis-a-vi Yen last night ) ? Hope you can handle the ride and will come out on top. A story to tell your grandkids some day!

I took a look at http://www.calsci.com/home.htm it looks promising, thanks.

Gunrunner - I forgot to mention that the little tyke always dropped the coin - a valid price indicator? :- )

Gene @ 14:19

My thinking is that this apparently desperate offer by the fund you mentioned is probably the result of stiff competition between funds. How many are there now. 7000 +?

BOB: We seem to think alike in regard to BGO and the market. Although you by admission are not technically orientated, it does not take much knowledge to see that by looking at the charts almost all the equities are on their lows in a basing phase which if violated should produce further losses across the board. Viewing this, as much as I believe fundamentally, the prospect for gold looks bleak, it would seem foolish to sell at this juncture until the market shows us which direction it is going to take by either violating these lows or moving above them. Rarely, does the market provide such a clear picture of which direction it is likely to take. I am with you in the observation that despite the consensus of market "seers" that gold is going lower, it has stubbornly refused to do so. This does not mean that I expect it to go higher, it is merely a sign that things may not be what they seem to be - which is supported by the charts.

BGO is a real puzzler because the nature of the trading suggests that it is institutional based and thus controlled by sophisticated traders or investors. And these traders have concluded the stock is not worth owning. Under your well-constructed development concepts, the mine should certainly have enough value to support the price of BGO at its present or higher level. But the market does not necessarily value a company in the same manner as one would in purchasing a company - and I get the feeling that investors are fed up with BGO management or that companies valuating the prospect have not found the resource appealing for reasons which may yet not be publically pronounced. As you may recall, BGO grandly pronounced that it expected an offer by the end of summer.

Further, in this regard, BGO, which is usually prolific with news releases, has not released any material news since July, despite the downturn in the stock - which is not a good sign. Particularly when considering they reportedly have a number of drilling activities being undertaken which should produce such releases. What to do with the stock is the problem. Unfortunately I have been seduced by the "world class mine" reports and each day I think it should have made its low only to see another low - and the selling has been orderly. If it were not for the independent scoping study, I would have been long gone by now. I am not encouraged over the intermediate term as the same investors vacating the stock today are unlikely to return, even if the feasibility study is positive, and there are not that many in today's market. Finally, BGO has an enormous turnover in its stock, relative to other gold companies of its size and shares outstanding. Thus, it would seem not many of these investors are interested in the LT.

During February, 1933, with Roosevelt elected but Hoover still in the
White House, runs on banks, bank failures, and bank closings in state
after state had brought the financial system of the country to a virtual
standstill.

On March 04 1933, F.D.R.'s inauguration. New currencies were invented by
corporations and cities but no one wanted the worthless paper. About
three-fourths of the states had closed all banks, had suspended bank
withdrawals and instituted what was called a Bank Holiday.

Now the great of the country were naked. The peril had been the conspir-
acy of Wall Street. The omniscient industrialist, the great financier,
the all-wise businessman were revealed for dishonest incompetents. They
were neither honest nor wise. The country had come to a total standstill
because of their policies.

On March 04 1933, F.D.R.'s almost first syllable there was relief. Within
a matter of moments there was courage. The confident lifting voice was
facing facts, calling a spade a spade, heaping the country's scorn on the
wealthy who had betrayed the people for love of profit.

"We must drive the money-changers from the temple," the curiously alive
and confident voice declared, and people everywhere leaned nearer their
radios, intent on not missing a word. "There must be an end to speculat-
ion with other people's money..." "Values have shrunk to fantastic levels
the withered leaves of industrial enterprise lie on every side; farmers
find no markets for their produce; the savings of many years in thousands
of families are gone. More important, a host of unemployed citizens face
the grim problems of existence, and an equally great number toil with
little return. Our great primary task is to put people to work. I am
prepared under my constitutional duty to recommend the measures that a
stricken nation in the midst of a stricken world may require."

A permanent excitement seized the land, almost a gladness, in those early
days of the New Deal when, after years of government idleness in respect
to the welfare of the people, act followed act, and law followed law,
each one designed to meet the emergency, Relief, recovery, reform were
the watchwords of the New Deal.

The purpose of F.D.R. and his New Deal was the saving of the menaced
capitalist system and yet in a very real sense it was a people's move-
ment,too. The New Deal was the necessary answer to the people's insistent
demands.

There was a man in the White House, a human being of ability, and there
was a great surge of hope stemming from the fact that here was a
President who actually talked sense. It seemed unprecedented.

He spoke of peace not war,of an end to conquest and imperialism, of restraining the rising fascism of Germany, Italy, and imperial Japan.

The people loved him for enemies he made. Wall Street was against him
to a man. Newspapermen and clerks, white-collar workers who had never
thought of trade unions, began to wonder if their clean hands and white
collars were sufficient recompense for having nothing to say but
"yes sir" about their hours, pay, and conditions.

Gene, Allen USA, and Skylark, thanks for the remarks. We all seem to have similar experience, concerns, and prospects. I will stand my ground and wait out the storm.

Cheers.

6pak ( Sept 9. 15:06 ) "There must be an end to speculation with other people's money..." This from a man ( Roosevelt ) who confiscated EVERYBODY'S money??

The best financial U.S. history I know of covering the period from the end of WWI to the end of WWII is "Economics and the Public Welfare", by Benjamin M. Anderson. I don't know if it's still in print ( my copy is at least ten years old ) . Try http://www.amazon.com.

Strad Master, The Globe and Mail on Saturday last week ran a article on
our X-Prime Minister Brian Mulhoney the man who said there is no gaurantee of steady employment after a stint in politics. Seems he cashed in 2.7 million dollars of options from one of Peter Munk's other business ventures. Who in their right mind would go against the establishment with perks like that, 6 billion people worldwide, and acouple hundred thousand insiders split the bulk of the wealth. The lessons of history keep repeating downfalls of great civilizations that have faltered from greed/complacency, Rome, Egypt, Greece, Persia, Aztec/Toltec and if we don't watch out the the land of the free will be nexted. Don't fool yourself this world is ripe for the pickings!! Similarities are, confiscation by taxation, parasitic courts, .5% of population trying to tell 99.5% of the people that same sex people are a norm, inner circles who conspire to manipulate markets and money flow. Many think the good ole USA is immuned from internal factions, think again!! James Madison wrote about pluralism 200 years ago "Liberty is to faction what air is to fire".


pari

I agree about that BGO disclosure releases dried-up since July 2nd and this is one reason that weak hands ( institutional or otherwise ) sell-out.

I suspect that BGO management are contemplating strategy in light of the stock's decline since July 2nd ( last disclosure ) and general gold market conditions.

We are looking forward to the pre-feasibility study and this should indicate a good estimate of minable gold that we can safely drop by 20% to get to a final 'bankable' feasibility project. The good news is that a good geologic resource conservatively estimated often turns-out greater ore - BGO/AMAX Refugio is a a good example for Chile of a geologic resource that was extended, as with mineable ore, and certainly the greatest example is the Homestake/ABX Carlin Trend ore bodies/mines in Nevada that continue to grow. Its a great business when things are goin right ( price, cost and grade/quantity ) .

Cheers

On the 15 minutes Java charts at http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes the xau ( symbol at this site is xau.x ) looks to be forming a V-bottom. Again that's on the 15 minutes chart.

Productivity up....what does this mean?


``The still open question is whether productivity growth is in the process of picking up,'' Greenspan said in a weekend speech
in Palo Alto, Calif. ``For it is the answer to this question that is material to the current debate between those who argue that the
economy is entering a new era of greatly enhanced sustainable growth.''


http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/09/z0000_z00_27.html

Sold some stox last week and express mailed the certificates to my Broker ( Fidelity ) They should have been there yesterday ( the settlement day ) at the latest according to Canada Post...Called this mornin and NO certificates ( according to three differen't Fidelity reps ) ...called Canada Post and they had a written copy that Fidelity had indeed got the certificates ( yesterday no less ) ...called Fidelity back and they STILL denied they got the certificates ( even though they signed for em ) ...after 1 hour + 10 minutes they finally figured out they had em...Almost every dealing I've had with Fidelity recently has turned into a farce and their mutual fund exposure scares the hell out of me ...so I'm outta there after 13 years....Anybody else having snafu's with Fidelity????

Am thinkin of switchin from Fidelity to Lombard and does anyone "out there" have anything pro-con about LOMBARD????...

Craig - I take it you've tried some other form of tracking/analysis ( other than darts and your child ) ? I am considering embarking a better trading path and am interested in other folks' "lessons learned" - good and bad. Someone in the past mentioned Meta Stock as a useful engine. Any experience out there?

Anyone? Bueller? Anyone?

EB - Tell us YOUR secrets... I wanted to e-mail you this weekend but the girlfriend had Buffet on her mind "....why don't we get drunk and ... " well, you know the rest. ( BTW, she requires a sack and myself a twelve pack - wonderful voice, tho )

Who Cares - Agree with Front's comment about your wife! I like her already!

O.K... Back to the crawl space.

The wife ( on her first and last pull on the slot machine ) got 75$...We cut + ran....in the mood ta take profits!....which is hard ta do in the gold market.........XAU up .73...

TED... I have used Lombard and National Discount Brokers for several months of trading on the net and have had no problems buying/selling stocks. Their commission ~$20 is in my range. I leave everything in street name for convenience and trade often. Both use a web page with password, etc, and no fancy software, such as eSchwab, which I also use. So far I have always been able to reach each of these when I'm ready to act. I use dbc.com to get quotes during the day, and follow CNBC for gold/silver/XAU prices ( sound is usually turned off for sanity ) .

TED: I've been trading with Lombard ( now Discover ) Brokerage. I am very happy with them. I trade stocks and options. Great executions, low commissions, and the service ( when I had to call them ) was OK. A coworker trades with Fidelity, and their executions are slow, and their rules appear to be a little crazy: he sold some stock and Fidelity did not allow him to use the proceeds to make another purchase until the sale has settled, three days later. Hmmm. With Lombard, I get fills before Fidelity can even acknowledge his order. In summary, I like Lombard.

Thanks for the interest Bill. I do not accept your premise that F.D.R.
Confiscated EVERYBODY'S money ??

I propose, that the Federal Reserve Bank ( USofA Central Bank ) confiscated
the wealth of the USofA citizen. The money interests, were given such
privilege, by the USofA Congress in 1914. The Corporation of the Federal
Reserve Bank, was given all the wealth of the UsofA nation.

Fifteen ( 15 ) years, the skills of these money interests brought the
UsofA nation to the depths of depression. Your take on the depression
suggests that the people may have caused the depression. How, is it
possible to imply such. The welfare state maybe. Well, in 1920's no
welfare existed.

Do you suggest, that F.D.R. via, the USofA Government, ( people's govern-
ment ) passed laws immediately,First there was the Emergency Banking Act
in which all banks were forced to remain closed until given federal
approval. Is this the reference to confiscation of EVERYBODY'S money.

Maybe NIRA codes. A recovery was to be gained through the self-organizat-
ion of each industry which would restore itself under government super-
vision through eliminating cutthroat competition, through setting up
fair practices and fair standards, through increasing purchasing power
by higher wages, through agreeing on minimum wages and hours.

This is my take, no, F.D.R.and the people's government did not confiscate The Federal Reserve did. Thanks, take care.

Byron : Where have you been. Yesterday and today's market have me thinking of the proverbial lull before a storm. Do you feel the same way?

G'day all--7am here.
Every morning I get up, log on, and then hold my breath while Kitco's 24 hour gold chart is coming up. What have you guys been doing all night? Not buying gold obviously. I've never seen such dead action ( lack of action ) . Thank God the OZ market opens in three hours--can at least get some adrenalin flowing!

A graph of M3 from 1980 or so tells the inflation story quite well. From 1980 until about 1990 M3 grew almost in a stright line ( it appears as if this growth was programmed in some fed computer ) , more than doubling in those ten years. From 1990 until about 1995, the graph looks flat, almost no M3 growth. In 1995 M3 begins to grow again, at about a rate which would triple M3 in ten years. Inflation lags M3 growth by a couple of years or so, so they say. Guess what happens next to inflation ( unless the "adjusters" get real active ) ?

Skylark--whichever way gold goes out of this triangle there's gonna be some real action on gold shares. I've got my sell notice pinned to the front of the avalanche and my buy order on the top of the skyrocket. I'm either going to be in lock, stock, barrel, tea-kettle and kitchen sink or I'm gonna be out and short. Only hope I'm quick enough when the time comes.

6Pak./Buckner... It was my impression that when many of the banks failed, before FDR shut them all down, the little saver lost his life savings and the borrower, big enough to qualify for a loan, got off without paying his debt ( bankruptcy? ) . The 1980's S&L crisis was similar except that savings were insured for depositors and the taxpayer lost. Big borrowers took the money and essentially had their accounts covered by taxpayers. In any crisis, a person's personal gain/loss will depend upon how much he knows about the rules of the game. Today's rules are so complicated and unknown that most investors/savers will be lambs to the slaughter.

Ted:

post canada is a "profit making" organization so they don't rush to get the mail delivered. I once sent a letter via the US post office "overnight" to Vancouver the letter was handed over to the canuck post office where it sat for two weeks. The Canadian post office doesn't cooperate in the delivery of express mail with the US.

If you want to get something delivered quick, you must use a service like Fed Ex.

Sorry, Make that last comment Buckler.. By the way Nick, how do you guys down under sleep when you know the gold market may be gyrating while you toss and turn?

Allen-USA You should never lose 75% on any share EVER. You should have been OUT with max 15% loss. Any of you holding shares that are more than 15% lower than what you paid for em should seriously consider whether or not you should be in the share market at all.

Larryn -- I count golden sheep!!
Seriously though--I am a trader. I don't like being long on a weekend, especially a long weekend. I've got crash insurance ( puts ) , call options on the biggest and best Aussie Au shares and I make my beer money on daily or weekly trades. So I reckon I'm covered no matter what happens. I do not , however, have a nuclear fallout shelter. But if that happens the best place to be will most likely be at ground zero anyway. A healthy attitude to life and the knowledge that this is all a big game helps. I sleep well.

Tuesday, September 9, 1997

Canada needs foreign competition in banking at home

By DIANE FRANCIS
The Financial Post

Besides, fears of the U.S. bogeyman are bunk. Two of North America's 10 biggest banks are Canadian. Already 40% of the banks' revenues are from offshore operations. Bank of Montreal owns banks in the U.S. and Mexico. Canadians are big enough to frolic around in the U.S. marketplace and do so with great success.

Competition is the most important wealth creation mechanism in the world. If you don't agree, just remember what occured when the long-distance telephone market was opened to competition. Ma Bell would have gouged businesses forever if competition hadn't broken out. Or just remember what Japanese cars did for automobile owners in North America.

Most of Canada's banks have maintained that to remain internationally competitive Ottawa must eliminate the 10% ownership restriction on ownership of their shares. I don't disagree with this. Most do not want foreigners to be able to own more than 10%. Bank of Montreal is the exception while the others remain silent on the topic or want a few restrictions.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/FPColumns/francis.html

TED - re comment about Fidelity. I'm not sure that its much different elsewhere. But thanks for the headsup re this instance. I've had problems every place I've gone ( mostly MFunds companies ) . It seems that they are so overwhelmed with activity that they can't get it right. I think the best bet is to find a smaller brokerage which is fairly conservative and get an account rep you can call your own. Then, at least, the person on the other end has a sense that you are a person and not just another transaction, eh?

Stick to your guns on the stox. Your ship *will* come in. One thoght I have re stock picking is to know enough about the grouping to pick two or three stox whic have complementary strengths and weaknesses. If one has a problem then your not so vulnerable. And since group momentum is a prime consideration , it will be a better chance that the group will lift your favorites even if one is a laggered. ( caveat, etc )

TED - re comment about Fidelity. I'm not sure that its much different elsewhere. But thanks for the headsup re this instance. I've had problems every place I've gone ( mostly MFunds companies ) . It seems that they are so overwhelmed with activity that they can't get it right. I think the best bet is to find a smaller brokerage which is fairly conservative and get an account rep you can call your own. Then, at least, the person on the other end has a sense that you are a person and not just another transaction, eh?

Stick to your guns on the stox. Your ship *will* come in. One thoght I have re stock picking is to know enough about the grouping to pick two or three stox whic have complementary strengths and weaknesses. If one has a problem then your not so vulnerable. And since group momentum is a prime consideration , it will be a better chance that the group will lift your favorites even if one is a laggered. ( caveat, etc )

6PAK: Your 15:01 - while I am a Libertarian I am also a bit of a history student and I agree with you Roosevelt did what had to be done in 1933. In my book he saved the free enterprise system because otherwise God knows how we would have ended up. Things were out of control and getting worse by the day. Hoover did not grasp the magnitude of the problem. However, like everthing seems to go the move initiated by Roosevelt went much too far and continued way beyond what it should have. Now, in due course, it has I think started to correct to where even the Democrats are saying we have too much government, well, some of them are. Exclude the Gephardts et al. And we Libertarians are on the march! ;- )

Nick - It was a first, very painful experience which, as I said in the post, was an education. I was an idiot ( and probably still am ) . I'm not in stox. I found that I've not got enough self control to do the very painstaking research needed to excel in that action. So when I do go into stox I use MFunds of the best I can find to insultate me from my ignorance. I DO research the funds and feel that is a more homogenous situation and so easier for me to understand when compared to learning about every market segment I want to invest in. Right now I'm disgusted with MFunds, though. So I'm out, out, out. Awaiting the BIG one.

I know people who deal with Fidelity for their 401k and it is bad. The administration is a nightmare. I guess you get what you pay for. I now deal with a full service firm and do not mind paying the commissions so that I have a person to yell at.

Gunrunner:

For the past decade or so I've won some & lost some. though I'm no LBG - I wasn't even eligible for a 401k until 95 . I *usually* limit individual trade losses to -10% and gains to +25%. I'm a teeny tiny investor, my system screamed "BUY gold MF" in late APR, "CUT & RUN" late JUN. :- ( Of course, I couldn't resist holding on and dollar cost averaged my way back to ONLY a 6.5% loss ( as my sensei said "perserverance & discipline" ) - finally bailed completely last Fri.
I'm waiting for a strong "buy" signal to re-appear - a spot drop to $304 or a convincing punch past $335 within two weeks would do it - providing that the MF price reflected the move. BTW, my LT has been whispering accumulate for the last two months, but do I listen?
I still see it as just a game - but I've heard that you have to be lucky or good to win. My luck is clearly not in question - so I'd better figure out how to be good. :-]
I thought the Kitco forum might have some valid input re analysis methods.

PS - the dart method works MUCH better after a 12pak & with a blindfold, I guess that can be said of a lot of things. ;-}

BLL ( be lurking later )

Why stocks are better then Mutual Funds if kept for 18 months
or longer.

Go to: http://www3.techstock.com/~wsapi/investor/newsletter-12

Scroo down to Capitol Gains Tax Cut

I don't know why the last URL didn't work. Try going to Silicon Investor
Homepage: http:www.techstocks.com/

Click on: Sept.8th small caps coiled to spring

One more time: http://www.techstocks.com/

There are a few who will find the following of extreme interest.

With the recent postings regarding CRY, and in particular the interest expressed by Millhouse, I have decided to make a personal investigation in Caracas regarding the disposition of the litigation regarding their mining claims. As a long time veteran of Venezuela's *judicial system*, one learns quickly to NEVER believe what is published in the press, and even less at a stockholders meeting. Regardless, the upside potential appears too great to leave this univestigated, particularly when I already have a lawyer pursuing two other cases in the Caracas Supreme Court.
Any parties interested in sharing information, can e-mail me at force@enlared.net, and I will reply in like kind with my observations of the case. Any tid-bit of info is welcome.

Regards,
Cmax

IMF seeks alternative to gold sales to fund loans

WASHINGTON, Sept 9 ( Reuter ) - The IMF wants bilateral contributions to fund packages of loans and debt relief for the world's
poorest states, but may reopen the debate on sales of gold next year if money is not available, an official said.

IMF First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer told a news conference about the fund's annual report, released on Tuesday,
that there had been a positive response to the request for bilateral funding, although hardly an enthusiastic one.

``We are still in the process of seeing how much we can get in bilateral contributions,'' he said. ``If that process does not produce
enough, then next year we may have to reinvestigate the issue of gold sales.''

He said the IMF would also examine if it could use internal methods to fund the two programs, the Highly Indebted Poor Countries'
Initiative and the Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility.

Tuesday September 9 7:35 PM EDT

Stock market crash "lingering concern" for IMF

WASHINGTON, Sept 9 ( Reuter ) - The possibility of a stock market crash is of ``lingering concern'' to the International
Monetary Fund and the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, IMF First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer said.

But Fischer told a news conference marking Tuesday's release of the IMF annual report that it was hard to predict the
economic impact of any future crash. He was confident that central banks would act decisively if needed.

``It ( a major correction ) is a lingering concern, it is a lingering concern of the Fed,'' he said.

``There is a danger there, we have to watch for it... If there is a reduction and a very rapid correction central banks should,
and I would expect would, take action.''

Central banks pumped liquidity into the market when share prices crashed in 1987.

Well, it looks like not only Kitco crowd have a stock market crash on
their mind. However, CB will get us through it smoothly
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/09/z0000_z00_46.html

lurker, Miro -- If they're looking for it, it won't happen. It's when they say everything is, "O.K.", that I would begin to worry... :- )

Dow/Gold Ratio 24.44

Executives are unloading shares in record
amounts; a bearish signal?
NEW YORK ( CNNfn ) - Corporate officers sold $4
billion worth of stock in August, continuing a trend of
top executives shedding their shares at a record
pace.
And stock strategists are debating just how
serious that is for the overall market.
"It is another indication that the stock market is
very richly valued  price earnings are at all time
highs," said David Katz, chief investment officer at
Matrix Asset Advisors. "Insiders are realizing that
stocks are excessively priced, and they're starting to
take some of their profits."
http://www.cnnfn.com/yourmoney/9709/09/yomo_insider/

Puetz, If this get's through, are you recommending "put" options on shoeshine polish yet? ;- )

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Making a bottom?

NJ: Been spending more time at my newly discovered LIVE chart site. Can monitor indexes on anywhere from a 1 minute to X minutes basis. Watching and playing around with the various live charts makes me feel as if I am in "happy camper land". : )

NJ: P.S.: Also know as "techie heaven".

Anyone trading stocks electronically: Do any of these, Lombard, etc., allow you to trade Canadian stocks from the U.S. Ted: My biggest complaint with Fidelity is the currency conversion when trading Canadian stocks through our over the counter market. I watched one of my trades go through on Canada-Stockwatch and found that I got shaved for about 6% on the currency exchange. They filled at my bid price but got the stock lower and kept the difference. When I complained to Fidelity they said tough luck.

RJ, Shek, Sheller, Who Cares... It's been frustrating not being able to respond to any of the conjectures and theories as to ole "LGB"'s supposed "cry wolf" stuff of yesterday. I can only say in my defense, I had made attempts to e mail resolve the problem for days, tried again last night via more E mails, and VOILA! today upon my return home, my accounts are allowing me access again!

Thanks Bart, or the Internet God's, or whomever re-instated me. I promise you all this was no "Psych scam" though I did find it an interesting sociological study. ( Though mighty frustrating for a neurotic like me when I was reading theories and unable to respond! )

In any case, thanks RJ and all who defended free speech, I'm glad to actually be back. By way of thanks, you now have a kinder and gentler "LGB"... at least when the market is moving in my favor. When was that crash coming again Puetz??

( Not now nor have ever been, Hepat, Son of Hepcat, hepcat's cousin, Hepcat's neighbor, or Hepcat's smarter twin )

Peruvian stocks sell off on currency worries.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/09/tdp_z0009_1.html

Re earlier posts saying Fidelity is unresponsive and hard to deal with, I must respectfully disagree. I've made frequent 401K trades, ( between funds, complany stock, money market, etc. ) sometimes several a month, and they have never made an error. Further, the trades are free of any charges, fee's or commissions. Not a pitch for Fidelity, but just mentioning it since I've been dealing with them for over 10 years.

Ted: I trade with Fidelity and use their software to make trades. The executions on sector funds are always on the hour. The stock trades I've made have always been prompt. Their phone clerks are cordial but not very knowledgable. The touch tone trader is my second choice. Why on earth do you hold your certificates?

IDT: A bid price is a bid price is a bid price.....don't blame the broker for making a buck where he can.

Any "downturn" of consequence will test the phone banks, computer access etc. of every brokerage. "Be careful out there among dem English". - My favorite line from "The Witness".

Columbian peso plunges, Brazil sweats it out.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/09/z0009_52.html

IBM sells off on fears currency devaluations will hurt earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/09/ibm_x0002_1.html

Fidelity 401k is ok if you PAY through the nose for their full service administration. If you dont as the engineering firm I know did not look out. Their funds were misallocated and Fidelity paid up before they switched to the Aetna Group Annuity 401k. The misallocations made switching a nightmare legal action against Fidelity is a distinct possibility.

London Bullion Marketing Association ( LBMA ) is best described as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Daily gold trading nearly 50% yearly production. Who & Why?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron907.html

Currency crisis causes falloff in aluminum orders from Thailand and Indonesia. Industry officials expect China to pick up the slack.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/08/y0023_z00_34.html

Fidelitys main business is in mutual funds and significant part of it
is handling various 401K company plans. They are not good at trading
individual stocks - its not their mainline. Ted, looks for a smaller
brokerage where individual investor have more weight than multimillion
company account.
Just like LBG, I never had problem dealing with my 401K trades, however,
these are not really cash trades, its just moving money around between
MF. Cashing out, or trading individual stocks its totally different
ball game.

Speed: Re why on earth: Have held these stocks for 13 years or so and like to control my own destiny....Have been with Fidelity the whole time and it ain't a mirage that their service is goin downhill...fast!...Have had two botched trades ( where Fidelity after reviewing the tape recordings,have given me the trades that I had lost by poor execution on their part ) and have had several bookeeping blunders like today where it took them over an hour to figure out that they had signed for the certificates the day before....You can tell it's a "tight" economy by the quality of the reps I have been dealing with....and I haven't always felt this way as was totally satisfied by their service+execution until the last couple of years....

What is this mention of sector fund trades on the "hour". That sounds interesting. I was only talking about Fidelity's "low admin cost" plan where you can only change funds every three months and you pay loads on their load funds. This is really an employer not employee issue. It is not a good choice and was a nightmare for my friend's engineering
firm. They love Aetna with its 800 numbers, limitless switching, and many different families of funds and not just one family also all traditional load funds are without a load.

"Money is coined liberty" -- fyodor dostoevsky ( Crime & Punishment ) :
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta909.html

Goldbug23 ( 9/9 18:17 ) and 6pak ( 9/9 16:52 ) Here's a chronology of events between June 1932 and June 1933.

Summer 1932 - the stock market reached its bottom ( 41 points ) in June. Political pressure began to mount that Hoover's RFC ( Reconstruction Finance Corporation ) make public the names of the banks to which it had been giving loans. It did, and concern over the liquidity of U.S. banks increased.

October 1932 - Hoover makes an incorrect statement that the Fed had been within four weeks of going off the Gold standard earlier in the year. This statement was challenged by many Democratic Senators and was proved conclusively to be untrue by Carter Glass on November 1 - just a week before the election.

November 8, 1932 - Roosevelt elected. Almost immediately, a series of fruitless meetings took place between Roosevelt and Hoover regarding U.S. financial and banking situation.

January 1933 - Rumours begin to circulate that Roosevelt was about to take the U.S. off the Gold standard. Roosevelt refused to deny the rumours. Bank runs begin as depositors are confident that the Banks can pay out Dollars but question their ability to pay out Gold. Domestic hoarding of Gold on a large scale accelerates.

January - March 1933 - Lame duck Congress with a large percentage of sitting members out of office on Inauguration day - March 4. Hoover could not make policy and Roosevelt refused to co-operate. The U.S. government was effectively hamstrung.

February 14-March 4 1933 - Banking "holidays", which began in Detroit, spread across the country. On March 3, the New York banks were the last to join the holiday. On the day of Roosevelt's Inauguration ( March 4 ) , almost every bank in the U.S. was closed.

February 18, 1933 - Roosevelt receives a letter from ( still President ) Hoover: "A most critical situation has arisen in the country if which I feel it my duty to advise you confidentially". Roosevelt did not reply or acknowledge this letter until March 2, while banks were closing all around the country. When he did reply, he simply stated that there was nothing he could do.

Early March 1933 - With banks closed, the management of the banking crisis passed from the Fed to the new Administration in Washington. It was exceedingly difficult for the Fed bank heads, even in New York, to find out what the Administration's plans were. They were effectively shut out of Washington deliberations.

March 4, 1933 - Roosevelt Inaugurated. Declares extension of bank holiday until Monday, March 13.

Sunday, March 12, 1933 - Roosevelt goes on the radio for the first of his "Fireside Chats". He urges people to put their money back in the banks. When the banks re-open, the people do. A huge flow of deposits floods the banking system. Remember, Roosevelt had fulminated repeatedly against deficit spending during the election campaign and had repeatedly pledged his alliegance to the Gold standard.

April 5, 1933 - Under authority given to him by Congress, Roosevelt invokes authority making it unlawful to hold or own gold coin, gold bullion, or gold certificates.

June 5, 1933 - Roosevelt signs joint Congressional resolution abrogating the Gold clause on all existing goverment and private obligations. A comment of one Senator, asked for by Roosevelt, sums the situation up nicely: "Why, that's just plain stealing, isn't it, Mr President?"

All this is from "Economics and the Public Welfare" by Benjamin M. Anderson. This is a very interesting and highly readable book. I recommend it to all.

LGB,
As always, your latest post is a source great amusment! How do you keep it up???
Free speach? Hell, I'm all for it, as long as you make me laugh and don't step on my toes!

Ted it aint the economy its the poor excuse for an education system starting to bear its rotten fruit. I hope you dont need a heart bypass in 20 yrs good luck. This place is dumbin down and fast.

Roosevelt also set up the Securities Exchange Commission, to see to it
that no new faces got into the Wall Street gang, which caused the
following colloquy in Congress:

Representative Wolcott: At hearings before this committee in 1933, the
economists showed us charts which proved beyond all doubt that the dollar
value of commodities followed the price level of gold.
*It did not, did it ?*

Leon Henderson: NO.

Representative Gifford: Wasn't Joe Kennedy put in [as Chairman of the
Securities Exchange Committee] by President Roosevelt because he was
sympathetic with big business?

Leon Henderson: I think so.

Paul Einzig pointed out in 1935 that:
"President Roosevelt was the first to declare himself openly in favor of
a monetary policy aiming at a deliberately engineered rise in prices.
In a negative sense his policy was successful. Between 1933 and 1935 he
succeeded in reducing private indebtedness, but this was done at the cost
of increasing public indebtedness."

In other words, he eased the burden of debts off of the rich onto the
poor, since the rich are few and the poor many.

Senator Owen did not go into the question of whether the Federal Reserve
Board could be held responsible to the public. Actually, they cannot.
They are public officials who are appointed by the President, but their
salaries are paid by private stockholders of the Federal Reserve Banks.

Governor W.P.G. Harding of the Federal Reserve Board testified in 1921
that: " The Federal Reserve Bank is an institution owned by the stock-
holding member banks. The Government has not a dollar's worth of stock
in it."

However the Government does give the Federal Reserve System the use of
its billions of dollars of credit, and this gives the Federal Reserve its
characteristic of a central bank, the power to issue currency on the
government's credit. We do not have Federal Government notes or gold
certificates as currency. We have Federal Reserve Bank notes, issued by
the Federal Reserve Banks, and every dollar they print is a dollar in
their pocket.

Allen ( 18:13 ) + LGB ( 20:43 ) Thankx for the input on Fidelity!

Well, I have to say its becoming rather annoying to see every statistic
measuring the economic activities been revised ( and some of them very
significantly - like productivity growth from 0.6 to 2.7 )
How much you can trust anything what is said when it will be eventually
changed? How do I believe that inflation numbers are good? Hmm .. how
come they are never revised? It could be due to
1 - total incompetence
2 - cooking the numbers
3 - issuing wrong numbers on purpose so that they can be later improved

I dont know, I think its all of the above, however, the end result is
that nobody pays any attention anymore, just like we dont pay attention
to P/E, overvaluation, etc. So lets just keep trucking, life is grand, we
will prosper forever ( if not we will just revise the numbers )

Gene: I imagine the mutual fund was giving the broker a commission for finding new investors.

LGB: One thing I would not be short right now is shoe-polish.

Rumors of upward revaluation in Irish pound.
http://www.irish-times.com:80/irish-times/paper/1997/0909/fin1.html

ye gads! I've ended up on the same side as LGB. Off to find a new broker! ; ) Just kidding. Thanks TED. I'll consider that a head's up and watch my backside with Fidelity.

Fidelity charges a 3% load on money put into sector funds and then allows switching between sector funds with minimal charges. This is one way to make money using Schippi's wonderful charts and web page links.

If you are interested, start here. http://personal.fidelity.com/brokerage/

gotta go, my daughter wants time on the net! BBL

Korondy ( 16:50 ) + Larryn ( 20:43 ) Thankx for the input on Lombard ( Discovery )
.....Think I will switch to your side after two botched trades and several bookeeping blunders and a few conversations with reps that didn't know their heads from their asses....It's pretty bad when two traders ( ? ) make enuf mistakes that the brokerage gives you "the fill" after re-viewing the tape recordings and this within six months...Larryn: Yeah, I got that mute button on CNBC firmly depressed most of the time too....
Sent in ALL my certificates of stocks that I don't hold in DRIP...Those are keepers...for at least as far out as I can see...

Speed: What's the world commin too???

Latest developments on Chilean mining tax proposals.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/09/y0023_z00_12.html

TW ( 21:08 ) You hit close to home with that remark about the educational ( ? ) system in the U.S. of A....Have two brothers with Ivy league educations ( ? ) and neither can think their way out of a paper bag...Too bad the "IVY League" can't teach COMMON SENSE!!!...I have contempt for the educational ( ? ) system and me married to a retired teacher...yee gads.....ain't life weird!!!!....Re-twenty years and heart by-pass,I'll be long gone before then so won't have to worry about that....

LGB: your comment on Fidelity "the trades are free of any charges, fee,
or commision" is not totally true. First, not all companies have the same
agreement with Fidelity ( depends on the size of company's 401K account )
Even the best deals have some restrictions and fees. On some mutual funds
( e.g. many of the select funds ) you need to keep money in for at least 30
days or you pay $7.50 - $15 redemption fee.
Spartan High Income requires to keep money in for 9 month to avoid 1%
redemption fee. Redemption fees are the same for any size company.
No there is no commision, however, smaller companies may have a
restriction on how frequently you can move money around. Fidelity is not
so eager to give "commision free" exchanges to smaller account.

BTW, this applies only to 401K and IRA accounts. When you open a regular
MF account, you pay commisions and fees.

IMHO we are living in very uncertain times, at the cusp of a probable major social upheaval. As justification for this statement I've taken the liberty to illustrate some points from some references on social revolution. ( While the modern illustrations are mine the rationale and primary points are all from the sources listed at the end of the post. ) Prodromes of revolution: Revolution is one means by which legal/social systems are replaced. It may appear on the surface to develop rapidly, but in actuality there is usually a prodromal phase lasting on average three generations followed by a rapidly developing phase of crisis. The initial stimulus to revolution is the development of a society which thwarts one of the four classes of elemental desires by it's citizens. ( These are ( 1 ) the wish for new experiance ( 2 ) desire for security ( 3 ) the desire for recognition and ( 4 ) the desire for response--after W.I. Thomas, "The Person and His Wishes" in Park and Burgess, 'Introduction to the Science of Sociolog y. Univ. Chicago. 1924, pp.488-490. ) The first generation to suffer under breakdown of social institutions remembers when it was well off and functional; it spends its life trying to restore the system using various minor reforms. The second generation is raised to still revere the system; it recognizes the inadequacies but its power to change is held in check by the secondhand myths of its parent generation. It is only in the third or fourth generation that masses arise sufficiently uncontaminated by the mores of the old, working institutions and sufficiently detached from the old ways to form a cadre for revolution. Once a revolutionary society develops there are distinctive prodromes. First there is the onset of a generalized restlessness. This is measured by a general increase of the availability of travel by large numbers of people from one generation to the next. In the case of twentieth century America this is related to the development of the Ford automobile, then the opening of the US highway syste m but we recall that in history this is not predicated on a need for new transportation. One could recall specific instances of the same phenomenom dating from the time of the Athenian Sicily expedition in the 4th century B.C. The second prodrome is the development of immorality on a wholesale level. In our country it might be characterized by the Playboy philosophy of the 1960's followed closely by the "gay rights" movement, the rise of divorce rates, and the now commonality of illigitimacy. There are numerous historical precidents but my personal favorite illustration is the movie "Cabaret" set in 1930's Germany. Third is the phenomenom of "balked disposition" with vast numbers of people feeling that their desires and ambitions are being thwarted by the system. Innumerable people lose the ambition to work and start demanding newer and bigger sensations, incentives and benefits. This is associated with a rise of emigration, perhaps illustrated by the sudden rising rates of Californians moving to Idaho and of Chicagoans moving to the Florida panhandle. Fourth a condition of "rapport" develops between those who consider themselves repressed. In our society there is a kinship of enmeshed sympathy between NOW supporters, the Reverend Jesse Jackson, People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals, welfare queens and drag queens, NORML, HCI and every other leftist group in the phone book. When one is cut they all bleed. Finally there is an empowerment of the "repressed" against the previous status quo. Those previously deemed to be crackpots suddenly are in control of social institutions. PETA suddenly finds that it is able to block the sale of certain "Beanie Babys" on the basis that their characters imply cruelty to animals ( No joke here. This is true. ) On a more general level we find "affirmative action" raised to the status of acceptable practice and people come to accept the need to obtain federal permits before they fill in the low spots in their yards or dredge out their boat slips. More to follow on another day. L.P. Edwards "The Natural History of Revolution" University of chicago Press 1973 G Lefebvre "The coming of the French Revolution" Princeton Univ. Press 1971 C. Brinton "The Anatomy of Revolution" Vintage Books 1965 R. Grunberger "The 12-Year Reich" Ballentine Books 1972

Nice skate today? Thanks for the Cucumber-Cool words. I get so excited sometimes. uh oh...Schwiiiiiiiiing!

away
eb

LGB: Don't burn your fellow posters. Come over to the *Dark Side* and
help divine the metals upside potential. Visualize. It will be a greater
challenge, based on CB positioning, than going contrary to given individuals in the forum. You need a home, come on in, the waters fine.

PS: Haloween is coming and the market knows it. Meeeooowww!

All: is there any marked difference in placing a limit order through a discount internet broker versus a personal broker? Any advantage one way or the other, other than commission savings?

What discretionary factors are market makers allowed to use in filling orders? Is there a way to ensure that a limit order is transacted if the stock trades more or less consistently at the limit price over the course of a day?

Bill Buckler, re your 21:05, always good to add historical persepctive on how Roosevelt stole the nations gold, now isn't it ironic that he is being honored this year by the U.S. mint/Treasury dept. with a "Gold Commemorative" coin!?? As a coin lover, I nonetheless advice a boycott of this particular "Commem" issue.

STRAD, re your 14:14 post in reply to "2"'s pushing yet another conspiracy theory, couldn't agree more! You can't get TWO govt. dweebs to keep a secret, let alone hundreds! "Black choopers", "Illuminati", "Area 51", "TWA800 Navy/FBI Consp", etc etc. it just takes a certain kind of Imbec... uh, um, I mean a different way of THINKING, to believe such unproven, non evidentiary nonsense!

Private company plans to launch rockets to mine asteroids. Says that the average asteroid may be worth from one to four trillion dollars in precious and industrial metals. http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19970909/V000366-090997-idx.html

Sorry to be so U.S. centric in my free speech sermon eh?. Pass me a "Moosehead" and let's kick back then, eh?

Mining of Asteroids eh Ron. Oh yeah, that's likely to happen in our lifetimes. We can't even figure out which one's gonna hit us and obliterate us poor earthlings! ( Actually, the Govt. HAS figured it out, but there is a NASA, NOAA, FBI, CIA conspiracy to cover it up ) . Anyway, didn't you see what happened to that mining ship in "Alien" dude?

Open the pod bay doors Hal. HAL! OPEN THE POD BAY DOORS!!

David: It's not unexpected that there are more mutual funds than stocks. If there were only 10 stocks you could make ten different funds using nine different stocks in each. You could make an additional 45 funds from the original 10 stocks with eight stocks in each fund etc.
With 6000 stocks to choose from the number of possible mutual funds becomes astronomical.

Obviously "GOrdon@Camp David" has been trying to tell us that the president KNOWS about the Flight 800 conspiracy, but just as he posts the info. each time, the CIA intercepts his post.....

LGB, I have a question? How has Clinton survived as long as he has? This is the most corrupt man to ever hold the office of president? How many people know that the Fed is a private bank? The info is out there for everyone to see, it is just how it is presented and who is listening. Conspirisys are always out there, it just who's yours are linked with.

JIN: Yeah, you're STILL younger brother!!....Happy trading........@ the casino....

Donald: The Cat has a full body rash. Believe it's about to jump out of it skin. Infected by dollaritis?? It's been 9 1/2 weeks since the July 7th fiasco caused by OZ land ( Australia's announcement re: gold ) . A turning point is here. Question: Up or Down??? ( ^v^ ) I say UP!

Dec.Gold down .40 @ 323.70 ...KLSE down 17.69 ( 1.99% ) ...Hi EB!...good post by RJ this afternoon...eh!...Had Vegetable Pullao for din din....good sh!t...dude...CherOkee: Where art thou???

NIRA codes that were to restore and revivify American life.
Section 7 ( A ) , which stipulated as a matter of solemn law that workers
were to be allowed to bargain collectively through representatives of
their own choosing. The average worker at first saw in the NIRA only
the chance of getting a raise and better hours as well as a trade union
to protect both.

In 1933 alone the TUUL ( Trade Union Unity League ) conducted strikes of
16,000 auto workers in Detroit, 5,000 to 6,000 steel workers in Ambridge,
PA., and 2,700 meat packers in Pittsburgh.

The strike wave continued into 1934, when mass picket lines increased to
nearly 1,500.000 workers. More than 450,000 textile workers went on
strike after sixteen were killed on their picket lines.

The year 1935 saw 1,150,000 on strike fighting for union recognition and
improved working conditions. Some 18,000 workers were dragged from
the picket lines, arrested, and jailed.

From 1934 to 1936 eighty-eight workers lost their lives in strikes.

In 1934, in a futile effort to ward off union organization American
industry began spending an estimated $80,000.000 yearly for the purchase
of spies, their duties reporting on the activities of employees and their
unions, building blacklists, framing trade union officials, and breaking
up trade unions.

According to the later researches of the La Follette Senate Committee,
which in 1936 began an investigation into industry's purchase of
violence and espionage, 230 detective agencies furnished the largest
American corporations with 100,000 spies, who were thought to have
penetrated every one of the country's 48,000 local trade unions.

Many of the spies became officials of the trade unions and an increasing
number of active trade unionists were fingered and fired.

General Motors officials, testifying before the Senate Committee, blandly
admitted that they had spent hundreds of thousands of dollars for spies
in an effort to violate, or circumvent, the law providing for collective
bargaining. In the purchase of spies General Motors had spent $419,850.10
with the Pinkertons alone between January, 1934, and July, 1936, when
they spent a total of $994,855.68 with all agencies hired during that
period.


The good old days, was a HELL HOLE, to be sure. Death and Destruction.
Is this what we want again. An economic crash, and the wholesale attack
against American and Canadian workers. This destruction was allowed, due
to the status of the BIG RED SCARE. What will the reason be this time,
terrorist attacks, from within, or from outside. It is not a nice
thought. But, a crash will happen, what other choice is there?????????

This information has to be related to gold in some manner eh! : ) : ) : )
Take care.

Sorry for the delay, but whart I was trying to say was not too many
people caught Hilliary in the Barbra Walters interview last year.

She could not remember the name of the agency establishment
set up to bail out the savings and loans. Barbra quickly responded
the Resolution Trust Corporation. An excellent Detective Columbo
embaitment

Ron -- We hardly know what to do with what is mined now! And someone thinks going into space and mining an asteroid is supposed to make it all cheaper? Not for earthbound usage! Perhaps for building something for space; colonies, ships, etc. It is very expensive to haul mass off the earth.

LGB: I'm sorry, Dave. I can't do that . . . um, er . . . I mean . . . Hey! What do I know? They SAY they're going to launch in 1999, but I sure won't be reserving MY seat. Still it sure would be nice to have one of those $4 trillion nuggets in the back yard.

Digital Cameras Not Seen Threat to Silver Demand, per Reuters Artical__ through Yahoo on 9/5/97.
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970905/tech/stories/camera_1.html

Work it LGB. Come on in.

Thanks for keeping us informed with the historical truth.

For years they've been talking about mining the seabeds; which are a little closer to home.
Not any real advancements - Costs are high.

Dec.Gold up .30 @ 324.40 ....Nite all!

Watcher -- You've asked an involved question. I'm still trying to figure it all out. FWIW, electronic order entry goes in to the 'third market'. These orders are not routed to the primary exchanges. Hence, a live broker may execute your order ( very high probability ) on a major exchange ( NYSE floor, say ) . Electronic order entry and the third market appears to be some type of 'private' company order collecting/bundling arrangement. I know that the third market folks pay for order flow and that the brokerages that use them get a 'discount'. You, as the customer , apparently never are aware of this type of transaction. I know that Schwab is involved in a class action suite pertaining to the 'third market' and payment for order flow. Apparently, they get a discount ( in this case ) which they did not pass on to the customer ( kickback? ) . Problems that could arise? Your order never gets executed, or you get a terrible fill!

Thanks again Bill, that information is also of importance. The spin in
the material is to discredit the facts. It is obvious to me at least,
that Roosevelt and Hoover, played in the same league, different team
shirts, but, the same game plan. Screw the people, and protect the money
interests.

No, there is no perfect person to lead a free nation. But, what is a free
nation.? Hell the Past Soviet Nation, was destroyed by economics, and
Government officials. The disease needed to fight a war, is control of
the people. The cold war is over, now the people must rid ourselves of
these excessive government people. Fire them out of their jobs. A whole-
sale firing. Give us back our freedoms, there is no war to fight, unless
these government officials stay in power, and create a war, that is my
fear. Put notice on the elected officials, we will not accept more war.

The elected officials, must now take back our governments from these
Bureaucrats and Technocrats, put balance back in our lives, in a free and
democratic society. War, is good for business, and paper profits, bad for the people.

Neophyte: The US is not the world.