At 1600 hours today 10 Sept ( local time ) there were only 20,000 hours until the millenium.

Thanks, Panda...that does clarify things a bit. I have tried unsuccessfully to "interogate" sveral of the net discount brokerages...not to my satisfaction. I am trying to achieve the following : viewing a real time day trading scenario in which orders I place have a high probabbility of being executed ( stock trading price and my limit price being the same and it being a given that the volume for both matches ) . I have heard the term"selectnet" used. Would that be a secondary electronic pool with priority over the third level? Does anyone have knowledge of a good resource that explains the curtain system in mechanical detail? It's always nice to know how the car works ( don't tell me "Just put the key in and drive, stupid!"

Tuesday September 9 7:35 PM EDT

Stock market crash "lingering concern" for IMF

WASHINGTON, Sept 9 ( Reuter ) - The possibility of a stock market crash is of ``lingering concern'' to the
International Monetary Fund and the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, IMF First Deputy Managing Director Stanley
Fischer said.

But Fischer told a news conference marking Tuesday's release of the IMF annual report that it was hard to predict the
economic impact of any future crash. He was confident that central banks would act decisively if needed.

``It ( a major correction ) is a lingering concern, it is a lingering concern of the Fed,'' he said.

``There is a danger there, we have to watch for it... If there is a reduction and a very rapid correction central banks
should, and I would expect would, take action.''

Central banks pumped liquidity into the market when share prices crashed in 1987.

WSF, 2, LEANER: Regarding my earlier post concerning conspiracy theories. Of course, no one will come out and admit being part of a conspiracy, but after 20 or so years of theory ( JFK Assination, UFO's, etc. ) reason would suggest that one of the thousands involved in the coverup would step forward ( even from the death bed ) and confess to the conspiracy and provide SUBSTANTIVE proof. As LGB pointed out, it's next to impossible to keep two people quiet about anything let alone hundreds, if not thousands of conspirators. ( BTW. LGB, it was bw who brought up the book about Flight 800 - not 2. I try to be as scrupulous as possible about addressing posters correctly. It's a good general rule to help keep order and prevent misunderstanding here since we're all basically anonymous. )
2: your post validates the previous point. Watergate, Iran-Contra, and Bre-X were all real conspiracies. Not CONSPIRACY THEORIES with no rational foundation. Each of them was discovered and exposed in short order since ultimately no one could keep their mouth shut. I've never denied that conspiracies exist. That a handful of powerful people can manipulate markets to their own ends is a given. My point is only that reason, available facts, and common sense should dictate how one thinks about such things. Does anyone here HONESTLY believe that Diana was murdered by a hit squad of British agents ordered to do so by the Queen of England? Does that make any real sense? Yet in the Middle East, tensions are being fomented as I write, by people who's agenda it fits to spread such twaddle. That hundreds of people see lights in the skies doessn't prove that Flight 800 was shot down by the US Millitary. ( BTW I've heard it posited that Clinton ordered the flight to be shot down because there were two agents carrying secret documents on their way to Paris to expose his nefarious involvement in the "accidental" death of Ron Brown. As it happens, I wouldn't put anything past good 'ol Bill so that's one of my favorite conspiracy theories... ) People have been seeing lights in the skies for centuries. So, since the 50's we have UFO's. Think about it reasonably, though, for a moment. Why would a superior race of beings, possessed of a technolgy that would allow them to travel the VAST distances of interstellar space, arrive here and then spend the next forty years hiding out in clouds, terrorizing illiterate farmers, cutting out cow anuses, and drawing pictures in wheat fields? Why don't they just land on the White House lawn? Which brings me to the BIG question: Why would NASA, or the nefarious government, need or wish to cover up the greatest scientific discovery of the millennium? The idea that all the scientists at Caltech and elsewhere could keep mum about such a thing is preposterous! It just makes NO sense!
In a time when big events unfold all around us it is, no doubt, comforting, to think in terms of a dastardly cabal of powerful people perpetrating ( How's that for alliteration, RJ? ) nefarious deeds. Sadly, though, it sometimes only takes one evil person to change the course of history ( as in the case of JFK - Oliver Stone notwithstanding ) . When thousands of people need to keep quite about it for decades, I begin to wonder. ( LEANER: your 15:30 post to me was interesting and I agree with most of it, although I don't quite understand its relevance to this subject. Thanks, though, for your comments. )

LGB - A Roosevelt Commemorative Gold coin, you say. That's delicious! Irony, where is thy stink.

BTW, I'm one of those nasty newsletter writers. I must say that with the Russell 2000 having now set records for nine days straight, the U.S. market is giving an excellent impersonation of a market in the late stages of a topping-out process. I have been waiting for two things on the U.S. market. One was a cessation in record short interest. The other was the small-caps overtaking the blue chips. Hmmm.

Strad Master...no doubt it's better that we mushrooms remain where we are. I choose our conspiracy theories over the full blown conspiracies that bear such evil fruit as Lenin, Marx, Stalin, et. al. The accepted body count for uncle Joe is 30,000,000! Fortunately for us, the powers that be apparently find the current system in the U.S. & Canada acceptable and we citizens are left in relative peace.

WATCHER: I thank God every day that I live where I do for precicely those reasons.

Bill, Re: "Nasty Newsletter Writers" : ) : ) : )
What is your take on the Inflation/Deflation issue ?
Take care.

The movie "Waco: Rules of Engagement". Do a web search, check
the playlist, and go see it. Then come back and speak of
conspiracies to me.

My wife is a very good watercolorist. Eugene Fodor stopped in the gallery a couple of days ago and gave her the word on his upcoming performance. I understand that he has at times made Kona his home...I do recall he had some rocky times in his younger days but I don't recall the specifics and I don't really care! I always enjoy good music, as long as the venue in intimate...Can't handle being in the 99th row from nowhere.

Back to the subject at hand...anybody notice a firming in silver?

LGB - Waco: Rule of Engagement. Plenty of evidence exists. See it,
then tell me why it was edited out of ALL major news media footage.

Get a clue. Don't get me started. I, too, was an dundering,
government Gomer Pyle until three years ago.

Strad Master
I must criticize you for total lack of faith in our ability to recruit, motivate, and train kamekaze limo drivers for service when called. Of course, this latest one had to be stewed before he would take the job.

Sorry there Who Cares...that wasn't a conspiracy...that was was the real neo nazis brandishing there power. It does come out from the velvet glove on occasion. The sad part is the overwhelming opinion by the general population that what happened was unavoidable and even necessary. Now that's scary. Hope the day doesn't come when goldbugs are found to be in the position of those poor souls ( Branch Davidians were basically harmless ) .

Introduction & Conclusion

Steve Puetz on Aug 23 1997 15:29 made 2 assertions concerning a relationship between lunar and solar eclipses and market crises which he identified in that post. These assertions are the basis of his prediction of an imminent crisis on September 16, the next total lunar eclipse.

I have examined his assertions and I conclude that neither of these assertions can be drawn from the data he presents. Further his premise that there could be a correlation is statistically fallacious.

Because some here are averse to reading long posts I will split this post into three. Those uninterested in anything other than my conclusions ( if that ) should scroll through the rest. Post 2 analyses each datum Puetz claims in support. Post 3 analyses the probabilities of a crash coinciding with a lunar/solar eclipse and full moon.

( I got bored with this exercise and cant be bothered chasing and analysing the rest of the data )

aurator ----- doin me own research, me.

( cos I lost $$ relying on someone else )

If the Boomers are pouring money into the stock market, then
yank their money in fearful expectations of a crash, where will
it go? If it goes into bonds, what kind of drop in interest
rates can we expect? Dang it, isn't anybody here doing some
kind of computer simulation?

It shouldn't be that hard to estimate. You should be able to
estimate total outflow from the market given an '87 style
crash, and it should be possible to estimate the drop in
interest rates.

BTW, doesn't anyone think it odd that Greenspan would give
such a speech a few days before Puetz's predicted crash?

It's not like Puetz's knowledge is propriatary. There are
several other people tracking the similarities of the '29,
'37, '87 and '97 markets.

Greenspan *could* be trying to psyche people like me. Trying
to confirm his godhood to us, so that we will *continue* to
believe in the System. : )

This 2nd post analyses each of Puetzs datum he claims supports his assertions. I am certain to have made some errors and would be grateful if they could be pointed out. I could, course, be entirely wrong and I look forward to being corrected in a robust Kitco way.

All dates of eclipses by courtesy of Fred Espenak. NASA/Goddard Space Flight Centre.

Puetz Assertion #1. ( P#1 )

A lunar eclipse that occurs 6 weeks after an over-valued market has topped, has *coincided* with the *start* of the panic-phase of the...

......five panics are named, not dated in this part. The subjective finagling factors are three ( a ) over-valued ( cos it only looks like that in retrospect ) ( b ) topped ( for same reason ) and ( c ) coincided -- the two factors do not coincide but are self-defining after the event ( ex post facto ) .
Assuming that the commonly held dates of the Panics are the ones he refers to.

( 1 ) In 1857 the lunar eclipse occurred on September 4, the Panic occurred on August 24, 15 days *before* the eclipse.
MISS.
If you think that is close or a good hit, youll need to read the third post.

( 2 ) Tulip- mania in 1637
I am awaiting Mr Puetzs dates.

( 3 ) The gold-and-silver crash of on 27 March 1980. Silver Thursday was 26 days after the partial lunar eclipse, of 1 March 1980. No coincidence. Not even close.
MISS.
I am nothing if not fair, it is possible to argue that the *panic phase* began the day Comex first changed the rules allowing only liquidation on 21 January 1980. There were three lunar eclipses in 1980. One of them was on Jan 20. Heh!! the P #1 got lucky. HIT - kinda. ( If this excites you, see post #3 ) .


( 4 ) The stock market crash in 1987, October 19 . There were two lunar eclipses in 1987. The October 7 eclipse would appear to be the best contender here, being only 12 days before Black Friday. 12 days aint really so good either, but well call this a decisive victory for the Puetz method. Im feeling a little generous. HIT

( 5 ) Tokyo Crash 1990
I am awaiting date



Puetz Assertion #2. ( P#2 )

When a lunar eclipse does not mark the start of a crash, a full-moon within 6 weeks of a solar eclipse has.

......six more panics are named, again not dated. Note the welching... if Im wrong... then ... Also the next subjective finagling factor *start of a crash*. But at least a full moon is more definite. Something to look for, something to hang on to and therefore to hang by. Note though, that there will always be one and sometimes two full moons after a solar eclipse ie within six weeks of the solar eclipse, kinda stacks the odds a little in P #2s favour, but, like Kenny R and Nick, Im a gambler. I can see what the house is holding. I aint afraid.


( 6 ) the gold-and-silver crash of 1920
Awaiting date from Mr Puetz

( 7 ) the Panic of 1873 on September 19 occured on a waning crescent moon 28 days old. Certainly no full moon on the day of the Panic. There were two solar eclipses in 1873 on May 26 & on November 20 sadly the panic was not within 6 weeks of a solar eclipse.
MISS.

( 8 ) The Mississippi Bubble 1720
Awaiting date from Mr Puetz

( 9 ) On the day of the Wall Street Crash 29 October 1929, the moon was a waning cresc 27 days old. The November solar eclipse was two days after the Wall Street Crash, the Full moons were 17 October and 16 November again, P ( #2 ) falls over. Not even close. MISS.


( 10 ) On the day of the Panic of 1869, September 24 the moon was 18 days old. ( full on 21 sept ) . There was a solar eclipse on August 7, the full moon of the 21 was actually 45 days not six weeks after the eclipse, but we can afford to be generous call it a HIT.
But, of course there was another full moon between the eclipse of August 7 and the full moon of 21 September. So there were two chances of a hit. You just got to love finagling factors.

( 11 ) the soybean crash of 1977
I am awaiting dates.


( 12 ) On the day of panic of the South Sea Bubble of 1720, September 20 the moon was waning, 19 days old, it was full on September 16. There was a solar eclipse on August 4. and therefore another full moon on about August 18. The *second* full moon after the August eclipse is 43 days, about 6 weeks later. HIT

Conclusions
Of the 12 datum points, 4 were misses, 4 were hits, and 5 were dont knows. The reason the total is 13, is cos I gave P#1 an extra HIT on the silver bubble.

The data presented as supporting Mr Puetzs assertions, even if the other 5 are direct hits is still only 75% accurate. This does not mean that his Assertions have a 75% chance of being accurate, just that only 75% of his data fits his assertions.

The 5 dont knows are likely to be divided into both hits and misses, so that we are likely to find half in one camp and half in another.

The third post will demonstrate that what we have found here, that about 50% of the panic and crashes will conform to the assertions, is to be expected from the probalities. In fact everyday has about a 50% chance of being a hit.....

One final time, before I get out of control.

Go see "Waco: Rules of Engagement". Compare THAT footage, which
has been available for at LEAST 30 months, to the footage that
has been played on the national news. CBS has now ADMITTED to
censoring the footage over fears of "inflammatory coverage".

Do it if you sincerely believe the media does not lie.

Third Post

OBFUSCATIONS.

Mr Puetz estimated the chances of the relationship between full-moons and crashes being random events. The calculation came out something like 1 in a million that they are random. Again, sir, you are way off.

I am no mathematician ( dontja just love Against the Gods? ) but I believe the implied probabilities Mr Puetz is talking about are deceptive.

There were/will be 229 lunar eclipses this century. On average the earth experiences 2.3 lunar eclipses ( partial and full ) per year, with the six week lee way there could, using P#1 be 96 days in the year covered by P#1. A crash occuring on any one of these days confirms P#1.

There were/will also be 228 solar eclipses ( partial and annular ) this century. Thats about another 96 days in the year covered, that is 192 out of 365 days, there will be some overlap of days. But one would expect that *any day* in the year has a 50-50 chance of conforming to P#1 or P#2, ex post facto.

Sometime the most damning evidence, ( a tip of the hat to Charles Fort ) is the excluded:

Why, also, if there were/are solar 228 eclipses in this century, are the other 200 + eclipses *not* portents of market calamity? It is because there was no market calamity before the eclipse, therefore other 200+ eclipses do not count. Same again for the lunar eclipses, there are another 200+ unused datum points. Unused simply because there was no crash.

All that is needed for confirmation of Peutzs assertion is that there is a crash. Providing there is a crash, there is about a 50-50 chance of there being a lunar eclipse nearby or a solar eclipse and full moon Di - ing to raise its meretricious head attempting to be counted as valid data.

OUT DAMN DATA.....

Please advise of any errors.


aurator ---- hunting truth in the strangest of places.

cross-platform dictionary

sometimes 1 = apostrophe
and 33 = inverted commas.

Promise to be silent for a while.

Who Cares. I did as you asked. Sad, that these people are dead.

Waco: The Rules of Engagement, William Gazecki's compelling new film documentary, is not for the faint
of heart. The images are disturbing and unforgettable: images of the charred, contorted, bullet-ridden
bodies of children and women, bent into jagged angles after lethal CS gas was poured into their living
quarters, forcing them to flee, only to be immolated in a bonfire ignited by government tanks; images of
government agents firing on civilians running for cover; images of politicians lying again and again about
the government assault on the Branch Davidian home near Waco, Texas, on February 28, 1993, and the
FBI massacre of the survivors on April 19.
http://www.waco93.com/libertyreview.html

Now THATS doin' your homework...

Puetz?? rebuttal??

eb

I liked you guys better when the subject was: Gold is going to 500+ in a heartbeat and we are going to PARTY!

Now...

Well, WHAT THE HELL IS GOIN' ON HERE??? Isn't there a conspiracy CHAT-ROOM??

WHO CARES? - would ya', could ya'? Take a pill, or something. Bury the hatchet. Get over it. RELAX! Go make ( peaceful ) amends with who wronged you.

I am new to this conspiracy thing and already I'm bored to tears...or am I gonna hurl? Oh hell...I'm gonna HURL!!!! Baaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrffffff!!!!

your posts are getting VERY dark and scary...

what exactly are you gonna do with that shotgun???

away...to find some cover...in a non-governmental facility...sheeeesh!

EB

You had me rolling earlier... yuk, yuk! ( belly-laugh )

eb

AWAY!!

OmegaMan

we've met the enemy and he is YOU!

Waco, Flight 800 and the Kennedy Assassination and Princess Di are all past history and not related to gold.
The only CONSPIRACY THEORIES that should be addressed here are those that drive markets, especially concerning positions taken by the various posters. There are many good minds here, so why waste time discussing unrelated topics?

AURATOR: Thanks. I for one appreciate your research as well as the humor. Now if you would only calculate the probability of gold having made a bottom .... : )

Skylark

My pleasure....

I will give your question some thought.

( And also avoid some quotation marks )

Warning!!!!!!!
Warning!!!!!!!
Warning!!!!!!!


\\\|||///
=========
^ | O O |
/ \ \_^_/
# _| |_
( # ) ( )
#\//|* *|\\
#\/ ( * ) /
# =====
# ( \|/ )
# || ||
.#.--'| |---.
#'---' ----'

Stock market tumbles!!!!!!

Gold soars!!!!

Pigs get slaughtered!!!!!!!

Dollar Rises vs Yen as Traders Disregard Rubin's Comments

The dollar recovered against the yen, on expectations that Japan won't be able to raise interest
rates in the near future, and U.S. dollar investments will remain attractive. Remarks from U.S.
Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin urging Japan boost its economy through improved domestic
demand, rather than by spurring exports, had little impact on the market. Rubin's comments on
Cable News Network's ``Moneyline'' program followed similar remarks from Deputy Treasury
Secretary Larry Summers yesterday that had already led the dollar lower. The dollar, which fell as
low as 118.63 yen earlier this morning, was quoted at 119.35, up from 118.88 in late New York
trading yesterday. It was quoted at 1.8141 marks, up from 1.8115 in New York.

Rubin Says It's `Very Important' Japan Spur Domestic Growth

Japan must continue to strive to boost its economy through improved domestic demand rather than
by spurring exports, U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said. ``That is a very substantial
challenge for Japan,'' Rubin said on Cable News Network's Moneyline program. ``It's very
important for Japan and the United States and the rest of the world that that challenge be met.''
Rubin said he would discuss this and other issues with Japanese officials next week in Hong Kong.

Deputy Sec. Summers had his warning ignored yesterday so they brought in the boss, Rubin. It appears that his warning has been ignored also. So I must conclude that "something" will be done to make US dollar investments "unattractive". Any suggestions on what they might do? Margin requirement changes is still my best guess.

Is that so!!!!!!
NO ONE shoulg ignore warnings!!! I'll just have to have a little talk with ol' Rubin baby!!!!!!

By the by, Donald; are you a PORKY PIG on Gold?????

Analysis of Greenspan weekend speech.
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970908/politics/stories/greenspan_2.html

I vote they put Pres. Billy Clinton's face on the dollar - that would certainly make it "unattractive".

Analcist of greenspam says its a suckers market and to get out fass. Imo hollon ta ma golllld!!!!!!!

BILL BUCKLER : Right on the money waiting for Short interest buildup to subside and small caps to rumble. This process may have as much as several more months to go after this bull run. But the end is approaching. AURATOR: Thanks loads. You saved this lazy shade tree astrologer lotsa work. Tha's why I for one don't do ANY work based on eclipses. However I do think many are close enough to certain events to allow for vigilance. Using ephemeral phenomena to time events ( as in astrology, etc ) is more like an AMBUSH technique. You have to get there early, and then sometimes you have to sit there quietly in the jungle hunched over your M60 for a long, long time, before the expected happens. And it never quite happens like you thought. NEOPHYTE: re "the cusp of revolution" - more, more! Eagerly await your next chapter. EB: ( 2:53 ) Shhhhhh! You'll wake up gold!

Gold shortsellers cover positions in Hong Kong.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/10/z0000_4.html

Donald - can ya blame em fo holdin on ta deh possessions wit King hong Kong stealin deh shohrts????????

Mike Sheller: Wow!!!! AMBUSH technique. Interistin!! Very much so! Yer really are agolld bug!

You have to get there early, and then sometimes you have to sit there quietly in the jungle hunched over your M60 for a long, long time, before the expected happens. And it never quite happens like you thought.

I too am willin ta go all out fo defendin ma golld!!

I'm imprissed to da mostest!!!!

I realize that not everyone has the WSJ online or I'd just post the URL, so here's a rather lengthy gold article from this mornings edition:

While Young Buyers Shy Away

By AARON LUCCHETTI and MICHAEL R.
SESIT
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

The early 1980s were the golden years for
Charles Baverman. But these days, his
investing children fail to see the luster in an
investment their father devotedly swears by.

Mr. Baverman's portfolio of gold-mining
stocks was so profitable that in 1983 he
closed his real-estate-brokerage firm and, at
age 50, began working part time from his
Cincinnati home, devoting much of his
energies to finding gold investments and
listening to Frank Sinatra ballads.

Mr. Baverman wasn't reluctant to share his
new-found wealth and his faith in gold. He
offered to buy each of his four sons shares in
Driefontein Consolidated Ltd., his favorite
South African gold stock. For his wife,
Mary, he bought a rare 1855 Liberty Double
Eagle coin, a prized possession she enjoys
showing visitors.

"Don't rub it with your fingers," Mr.
Baverman warned her recently as she
showed off the heavy coin hanging as a
pendant from her neck. "Perspiration causes
it to lose its luster."

But these days perspiration is the least of
Mr. Baverman's worries. His gold
investments have lost about 40% of their
value since the early 1980s, yet he
stubbornly clings to them despite Mrs.
Baverman's frequent reminders that she
wanted to sell 16 years ago.

Losing the Faith

His sons long ago lost the faith. Dayne
Baverman, 43 years old and the father of
eight children, invested in gold during the
1970s and was an avid coin collector. But
he got out of the metal in the early 1980s to
pay for his growing family. His brother
Marc, 42, an electrical contractor, has made
18% in stock investments this year after
dumping most of his gold. The one gold fund
remaining in his portfolio is reeling from the
13% fall this year in the price of gold.

Charles Jr., 39, sold the bullion coins his
father recommended and invested the
proceeds in certificates of deposit and a
stock mutual fund. Brian Baverman, 36, who
plays drums with a country-music band,
chooses to keep his gold allocation below
5% in his portfolio.

"My dad's generation sees gold as a huge
profit maker," says Marc Baverman. "My
generation sees it as a dog."

The Bavermans illustrate a growing
demographic divide. While fanatical older
gold bugs hang on, younger investors,
brimming with confidence about stocks and
paper assets that have quadrupled in value
this past decade, are shunning the precious
metal. Gold hit an 11-year low of $314.60
an ounce in July, far below its January 1980
peak of $875 an ounce.

The median age for mutual-fund
shareholders is in the 40s and falling;
gold-coin dealers say their clientele
averages 55 and older. With a growing
number of investment products available,
money managers and retail investors are
using more sophisticated strategies to
diversify portfolios.

Psychological Ties

More important, the world's central banks --
for centuries, among the largest gold
hoarders -- are quietly cutting back. "We are
seeing a major change in central banks'
attitudes toward gold," says Terry Smeeton,
a senior official at the Bank of England.
Banks are "moving to a new generation of
managers who don't carry the baggage of
their predecessors." Having grown up in an
era of floating exchange rates, younger
bankers have no psychological ties to gold,
which anchored the post World War II
monetary system.

Adam Posen was four years old in August
1971 when President Nixon took the dollar
off the gold standard. The world was awash
in dollars from the inflationary spending
associated with the Vietnam War. European
central banks, which had lost faith in the
U.S. currency, were exchanging dollars for
gold at the official price of $35 an ounce.

Now a 30-year-old former Federal Reserve
economist with the Institute for International
Economics in Washington, Mr. Posen
downplays the need for central banks to hold
gold as a diversification tool. He says major
countries have become so integrated into a
single financial system that an asset "from
outside the system isn't going to have much
value when there is a problem inside that
system."

With the Cold War over, inflation tame and
memories of two world wars fading, more
central banks have decided that allocating
hundreds of billions of dollars in gold seems
a high price for catastrophe insurance.

A quarter of the world's above-ground gold
is held by central banks and such
multilateral organizations as the European
Monetary Institute and the International
Monetary Fund. But those institutions have
sold 4.4% of their gold reserves since 1989,
or $16.6 billion in gold at current prices of
about $320 an ounce. Gold's allocation in
central-bank reserves has slipped to less
than 25% today from about 35% in 1989,
according to the IMF.

'No Longer Justified'

Last year, central banks sold $2.5 billion of
gold, a small amount compared with the
market's size, but enough to repeatedly send
prices reeling. A big blow came in July,
when the Reserve Bank of Australia
announced it had sold 68% of its 7.9
million-ounce reserve. The bank said large
gold holdings were "no longer justified,"
given the nation's mining stockpiles and
gold's diminished role in the international
financial system.

Last year, 64 central banks collected fees for
lending out about $28 billion of gold, double
the 1990 amount, according to London
research firm Gold Fields Mineral Services
Ltd. Much of the gold is borrowed by
financial institutions, which need the metal
to offset promises to buy bullion from
mining companies months or years in
advance at a predetermined price. The
institutions sell the metal to jewelers and
other gold users, reinvest the proceeds in
cash or bonds, then pass the mining
company's gold back to the central bank
when the contract to buy comes to term.

While central-bank lending doesn't inflict the
same psychological damage as outright
sales, the transactions have hurt gold in two
ways: They add temporary bursts of supply
and they stoke the fear that banks will
accelerate selling.

An unlikely suspect helped ignite the trend
of unloading gold for more lucrative
investments. Canada -- the world's
fourth-largest gold-mining nation behind
South Africa, the U.S. and Australia --
initiated a program to sell the metal from its
reserves in the early 1980s.

It has sold 85% of its gold and netted $7.5
billion from the program, plus billions more
in interest from investments in U.S. Treasury
and other governments' securities. Canada
has used the funds to reduce debt and
periodically defend its currency.

Effect of EMU

In Europe, the planned 1999 monetary and
economic union may lead to crucial
decisions for gold's future. How much gold
should the new central bank of the united
Europe hold? What should countries do with
their gold? Answers, likely to emerge next
spring as EMU plans develop, will dictate
the health of the gold market.

Some analysts say that in a unified Europe,
national central banks, stripped of their
power to control monetary policy, will
serve as asset managers and thus could be
tempted to dump gold in favor of
higher-yielding financial assets.

That scenario scares even the most loyal
metals patrons and reinforces the belief
among baby boomers and Generation Xers
that gold currently has no place in their
portfolios. Promoters of the Las Vegas
Investment in Mining Conference found that
out last month. They expected 4,500
attendees. They got only 3,000.

One who stayed away was Sherrin Lim, 37,
of Vancouver, British Columbia, who used
to favor speculative small mining concerns.
Discouraged by the precious metal's slide,
she sold the last of her gold stocks earlier
this year. "I'm a gold bug at heart, but even I
have to abandon the mining stocks now," she
says.

This year, mutual funds specializing in gold
are down by about a quarter of their value,
because of sinking prices and redemptions
by discouraged investors. Some funds are
threatening to close. During the past two
years, investors bought fewer gold
medallions and bullion coins than at any
other time since the early "70s.

Meanwhile, the $50 billion gold-mining
industry has been forced to shut mines, delay
projects and shift its focus from investors to
trinket buyers. As a defensive move, more
miners are selling future production at a set
price, locking in a profit, but keeping a lid
on gold prices. Still, 25% of the world's
mining is unprofitable at current prices, and
analysts expect more mine closings.

In the Pits

On the narrow steps of the New York
Mercantile Exchange's auction-style
gold-futures pit, the ranks of brokers have
thinned from the early 1980s, when more
than 300 traders paid more than $300,000
each to crowd in. Today, about 150
arm-waving speculators and brokers deal in
the more spacious gold pit. The minimum
cost to enter: about $97,000.

Some former gold investors are looking for
diversification plays in other commodities.
CPM Group, a New York-based
precious-metals consultant, says interest in
platinum is perking up. Ms. Lim has started
investing in oil and natural-gas ventures.
Others are using stock options and
stock-index futures, which allow investors
to protect their portfolio or to speculate
using quick bets on the direction of the
market or individual stocks.

Another substitute: international stocks.
Three years after its launch, the SoGen
Overseas Fund boasts $1.1 billion in assets
under management, while the SoGen Gold
Fund, introduced at the same time, has only
$44 million, says Jean-Marie Eveillard,
who manages both funds.

Back in Ohio, Charles Baverman Jr. buys
foreign shares to hedge his U.S. stock
portfolio. Doggedly, though, his father
argues for gold. "Most of today's funds are
run by younger people who don't even know
a bear market," Charles Sr. says during a
spirited family debate. Defending his
investment philosophy over black-bean soup
and salad at a Cincinnati-area restaurant, the
elder Mr. Baverman says that stocks are
overvalued and predicts the U.S.
government, despite deficit reductions, will
go broke in five years.

No stranger to hard times, Mr. Baverman
was born early in the Depression, losing his
father when he was seven. At 10, he was
selling blocks of ice and shining shoes to
help pay the family's rent. Eventually, he
flourished in real estate, but not before
defaulting on several mortgages and filing
for bankruptcy in 1963. Convinced hard
times will come again, he wants to have
gold available as it was in the early '80s
when his real-estate business tailed off. "I
think we've bottomed out" in gold, he says
hopefully, adding: "It has been around for
thousands of years."

Hard Assets

Mr. Baverman isn't the only gold loyalist.
Three gold funds and a collection of Silver
Eagle coins account for 50% of Norman
Beneke's investments. Despite losses of
about $10,000, the 68-year-old retired
firefighter from Newbury Park, Calif., says
growing up in the Depression on a Kansas
farm convinced him of the value of holding
hard assets like gold.

And while investors may shun gold, they like
the idea of government having some around
for emergencies.

The largest holder of gold, the U.S., isn't
expected to sell its huge bullion holdings,
which supply psychological support to the
dollar's international status. And gold sales
by big central banks such as the Fed and the
Bundesbank would disrupt the metals
market, says Jonathan Wilmot, chief global
strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston in
London. "The big guys are kind of stuck," he
says.

Many economists say gold is likely to come
back in vogue if faith in governments' ability
to handle inflation recedes, the dollar
weakens and the stock market cools. Some
are already pointing to the jittery stock
market as a reason for a slight increase in
nearly moribund gold-coin interest during
the second quarter.

"Now, gold is going out of fashion [because]
governments know how to manage
everything," argues Wall Street researcher
Peter Bernstein. But "the music eventually
stops."

Merchantnary fer hire. Have M60 will travel. primise to derfend yer gold fer small chunk of it.

Mornin Speed and all Kitcoites!...So you get WSJ online too...eh!...Looks like Asian tigers reverted to recent downtrend: KLSE ( Malaysia down 2.89%; Indonesia down 3.84% and my brother's Thailand down 4.15% ( there's the benifit of an Ivy League education ) ....

I am unsure whether to welcome you as a new poster or not. Various reasons come to mind and questions, such as, are you a new poster or ( im ) poster? Could you explain the subtle meanings of your handle? Do you have a day job in addition to living by your wit ( hopefully ) ? Do you cover, Yerhineyass? Finally, sir ( Mz ) Yerhineyass, your market perceptions or analysis? Your investment strategies? I do believe that the header for this fine forum contains allusions to these things along with some reference to gold. Mercenaries and pork bellies are on another site, perhaps someone could supply the URL's for you.

Speed: That WSJ article on gold was pretty gloomy but I guess one could read it that it's so grim that it is a sign of a near bottom...Pessimism @ the botttoms...euphoria @ the tops...ect..ect..or maybe I'm just one of those "old" gold bugs....Then there was the article on ABX on the WSJ front page too...Two gold articles on the front page...um...Quote from Peter Munk:"Gold prices may linger where they are for a while"...

There are a few who will find the following of extreme interest.

With the recent postings regarding KRY, and in particular the interest expressed by Millhouse, I have decided to make a personal investigation in Caracas regarding the disposition of the litigation regarding their mining claims. As a long time veteran of Venezuela's *judicial system*, one learns quickly to NEVER believe what is published in the press, and even less at a stockholders meeting. Regardless, the upside potential appears too great to leave this univestigated, particularly when I already have a lawyer pursuing two other cases in the Caracas Supreme Court.
Any parties interested in sharing information, can e-mail me at force@enlared.net, and I will reply in like kind with my observations of the case. Any tid-bit of info is welcome.

Regards,
Cmax

All-a-#%ckin-board. The Flatliner express is due to leave in 35 minutes.
If you aint got cash forget it, we dont do credit. If you are a piss
head of a yuppie, just lay on the tracks. Thats what we call the red
carpet treatment.
P.S. Yuppies. Thanks for cushioning the ride.

Hey diddle diddle,
The cat and the fiddle,
Gold jumped over the moon,
The little dog laughed to see such fun
And the dish ran away with the spoon.

Any requests out there?

Deaner's Prudent Trader, who has been tentatively bullish XAU, is now bearish. All short term of course. A fee site but with 30 day free trial. http://www.prudenttrader.com/

Thanks for WS article
...interesting how the 'paper pushers' keep looking over their shoulder, hearing the thundersteps of the gold bull...
...the inherent message from the article is that 'older' people should learn from the 'smart' young one's....and maybe they should...
...just say charge it!

Ted: Something has to happen to the U.S. dollar before gold will take off. The WSJ has another article on how the dollar has increased its role as reserve currency against the mark and yen. Unless and until the rest of the world tires of U.S. paper, gold ain't goin' nowhere. imho of course.

Speed: Saw that about the Dollar as a reserve currency...WSJ had more interesting than usual this morn...Article on Victor Niederhoffer ( Author of "The education of a Speculator" and how he lost his shirt in Thailand....S+P futures down 3.0 and listen to this: GOLD @ UNCH....Weather: sun breaking through a heavy fog and temp @ 60

D.A.: The silver lease-rate rising is consistent with a coming up-move in the precious metals -- which is consistent with the building deflationary pressures in the global stock markets.

General: RYDEX URSA is a good way to play the coming stock market crash. You can put some money there. However, there may be more potential for gains being long gold and silver coins. That's where your core investments should be. S&P put options are a good bet for money you can afford to lose.

Speed: This is a stupid question but I am NOT a computer geek and don't know how to post something like the WSJ article you posted...How do you do it and talk ta me as if I was a five year old....

Savage: The market crash that I expect is still on course. The greatest probability for most stock averages to start turning down is during the next day or two. The lunar eclipse on September 16th is the latest date for the present rally to extend.

Aurator and Bernie: Perhaps there was a misunderstanding about what I wrote previously. I did not predict a crash by this Thursday. What I did predict was that it was very likely that the present rally would stall out then, and the panic-phase of the crash would begin. A panic-phase of a crashing market can last anywhere from 2 weeks to 2 months. However, in most case the panic lasts no more than 4 weeks. Furthermore, the worst of the panic comes at the end of the downturn, not at the beginning. So, even if the market turns down during the next few days, the declines are likely to be relatively modest for the next week to week-and-a-half ( under 300 points ) . The 500 and 1000 point down days won't come until the end of September or early October.

Aurator: GOOD posts last night.....EB ( 2:53 ) Gold goin to 300....let's party anyway!

European markets mostly down...
http://www.ft-television.com/

CMAX: In the interests of the Kitco community, and for what it's worth, I will offer my astrological services and take a look at KRY's horoscope if I can be provided the company's date of incorporation ( time not necessary, but if available would be nice ) and location of incorporation. Also, if there have been any REINCORPORATIONS ( not acquisitions ) , I would require that date as well. Perhaps after looking at upcoming phenomena relative to KRY's planetary configurations, I might be able to offer some significant time windows to watch for. A tiny, humble, but perhaps helpful contribution. My address above. Buenas, Amigo.
( PS - to all who are asking for charts and readings - be patient. To those who see my address and would like to jump in, please wait because my plate is overloaded at present ) .

The famous Russian author Fyodor Dostoevsky astutely observed: "Money is coined liberty" --

Based on historical precedent the House Of Rothschild is buying gold hand over fist! One must only recall history to appreciate the current situation and this once in a lifetime opportunity. See extensive analysis review of what the the Richest Family in the world is investing in now. Between 1929 and 1935, the share price of Homestake Mining, one of the oldest gold mining firms in the U.S., soared over 500%:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta909.html

Aurator: You had some good information in your eclipse research. I did find 1 date where I disagreed with your eclipse date -- 1873. I don't have time for a rebutal now, but you misunderstood what I said about eclipses, full moons, and crashes.

I was talking about when the panic BEGAN, not when it reached its CLIMAX. There is a big difference in the dates of those two -- anywhere from 2 weeks to 2 months. Maybe tonight I'll get a chance to give you the data so you can see what I mean.

In the meantime, I see nothing at this point to alter the correlation between crashes and full moons -- especially those that are lunar eclipses. Continue to prepare for a crash -- starting any day now, and lasting the following 2 to 4 weeks.

"Now, gold is going out of fashion [because]
governments know how to manage
everything,"

List of modern governments that know how to manage everything follows: Russia, Korea, Japan, Thailand, Brazil, Indonesia, Kenya, Peru, Chile, Argentina, Singapore, Philippines, Poland, Roumania, Bulgaria, Hungary,
Italy, Greece, Bolivia, Venezuela, Mexico, Zaire etc. get my point? I will give you the list from history when Bart doubles his storage capacity.

Ted: Find the article, position the mouse pointer at the upper left hand corner of the article and then... hold down the left mouse button while scrolling through the article. This highlights the text you want. When you have highlighted as much as you want, let go of the mouse button and cut the text by pressing the right mouse button and selecting cut. Come on back to Kitco comments and enter a few choice words, then push the right mouse button again and choose "paste". If you like the keyboard better than the mouse, use Control+C to copy and Control+V to paste. That means hold down the Control key while pressing the C or V keys.

Ted: I use Netscape Navigator at home and Microsoft Explorer at work. Which do you use? When you use the right mouse button to copy the copy command is at the very bottom of the pop-up menu. I am testing my own instructions:
September 10, 1997
Mining Sectors Drop

SYDNEY, Australia -- Equities slumped
Wednesday as shares in the
diversified-resources and gold-mining
sectors fell.

The All Ordinaries Index fell 8.0 to 2666.5.
Decliners outnumbered rises 464 to 352.
Volume was 432.6 million shares traded,
compared with 432.6 million shares
Tuesday.

The diversified-resources' subindex fell
1.3%, posting the largest drop of any of the
subindexes. Steel, energy and mining
company Broken Hill Proprietary slid 36
Australian cents to 16.90 Australian dollars.

The gold-shares subindex dropped 0.6% as
the price of gold fell. However, gold and
nickel concern Jubilee Gold Mines gained
29 cents to A$1.37 as traders speculated that
the company would announce favorable drill
results in the next few days.

Retailer David Jones Ltd. fell 3 cents to
A$1.37 after reporting that its new profits
for the fiscal year slid 90% due to large
costs related to a strategic review of its
operations.

I think I told you correctly. Been out of the classroom for too many years! Off to work hi ho BBL

24 hours ago I posted a story about the IMF and its concern about a market crash. CNN reported the story this morning and are concerned that it could impact the market today! CNN should watch Kitco.

Actually, I like the nomercy article on insiders making large sales of their stock holdings. Now THAT'S 'telling'!

Speed --here goes.

Date: Wed Sep 10 1997 08:42
Speed ( dsissom@smart1.net ) :
Ted: Find the article, position the mouse pointer at the upper left hand corner of the article and then...
hold down the left mouse button while scrolling through the article. This highlights the text you want. When
you have highlighted as much as you want, let go of the mouse button and cut the text by pressing the
right mouse button and selecting cut. Come on back to Kitco comments and enter a few choice words,
then push the right mouse button again and choose "paste". If you like the keyboard better than the
mouse, use Control+C to copy and Control+V to paste. That means hold down the Control key while
pressing the C or V keys.


works!!!

TA ( mine=TentativeAnalysis ) indicates a XAU spike down is in the offing. Based on 3-6 mo candlecharts. One the other hand, a 2 year weekly cash chart seems to indicate a bottom, unless this head of H&S bottom turns into a shoulder ( lookoutbelow ) ! Support then is way back! As long as current market parameters maintain only an exogenous event strong enough to bust up said parameters will change the outlook for gold and xau. Or Mr Puetz's crash, but I think that may depend on the same. What do you think, bear bottom shakeout before a change? Comments????????????

SPEED: Thanks for posting the WSJ article. I notice that almost all articles on gold today continue to rephrase the same old facts and opinion ab nauseum.

Skylark: For those who may have missed this yesterday on the wire, the following excerpt from a commentary on the market may be of interest:

Gold is emerging as something of a showdown between two of the
larger players in the market, with many believing that the bear
will probably carry the day.

"You have two large investment banks in the market battling it
out," said one bank dealer. "And everyone else is on the sidelines
waiting for the next move, which will probably be down."

Puetz - you mention seven or so posts back that "the 1000 to 500 a day down days..." Please correct me, but I understand that under the current NYSE rules if the market is down 350 points in a day, the market closes for the day. What gives?

London Bullion Marketing Association ( LBMA ) is best described as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Daily gold trading nearly 50% yearly production. Who & Why?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron907.html

Jack and others who think conspiracies are unrelated to gold:

What would cause a massive shift out of paper, presumably to gold? Loss of faith in government. What would cause loss of faith? A conspiracy being uncovered. I don't know if these conspiracies are true- I try to be objective, and conclude that a lot of this smells real bad. Of course, it only matters if one of these conspiracies is uncovered. That is why I try to keep abreast of news coverage, etc. Don't dismiss Vince Foster b/c someone claims QEII killed Di. Why don't people come forward? They do. Nobody listens. Larry Nichols, the Vince Foster forgery press conference, the tape of Roger Clinton saying Bill's nose is a vacumn cleaner, the Air National Guard pilot who saw the missile.... They are not heard. It is one thing to be heard and dismissed, but they are not heard. Doesn't that fact alone suggest something?

The smartest thing the White House could do is have someone construct web sites making truly bizarre claims about Clinton, so all Web info can be easily dismissed. They probably don't need to, since there are enough crazies to serve that purpose.

Back to gold. Don't lose the forest for the trees.

SKYLARK : Yesterday you made the statement that capital was coming into the US because it is a desirable place to invest. Of course this is absolutely true. However, it is only desirable because of the external situation. For example, irrespective how good things are in the US, capital flows from Europe would be nowhere near as great if it was not for the impending monetary union. Capital seeks out stability and the US currently provides the greatest level of stability. The massive inflow of capital into the US has allowed US debt to be sold at relatively low interest rates and has resulted in a relatively strong dollar despite high levels of money supply growth.

An increase in stability elsewhere would reduce capital flows to the US and cause the US dollar to weaken.

The credit which should be given is that Greenspan & Co have done less harm than their counterparts in Europe and Japan.

BOB : re your 9/9 12:59 post. I have read extensively about Buffett's career and I don't recall any one-off events which propelled his wealth. In my recollection his year after year performance has been phenomenally consistant, generally outpacing the S&P by around 20%. His greatest successes have been his "trademark" purchases, where he has bought a large stake in a well run company at reasonable value ( sometimes very cheaply as in The Washington Post ) and never sold it.

BILL BUCKLER & 6PAK : Thanks for the informative "New Deal" discussion yesterday.

Later.....Milhouse

Speed: Missed your second post....I use Netscape 301...and you got mail!

There is a FREE stock program tht provides some tech analysis and has been recommended here several times. StockTrader or something like that. Can anyone post the URL please?

Nick ( 9:10 ) Thankx mate!....next time I "lift" a Fosters,I'll think of ya.
"Bud" suks....XAU up .40..

Nick ( 9:10 ) Thankx mate!....next time I "lift" a Fosters,I'll think of ya.
"Bud" suks....XAU up .40..

...Taiwan could provide the 'spark' that gold requires...the 'chess'moves of China ( Russia ) - US - Japan & Taiwan - are potentially explosive...I'm not inferring a 'war' which I believe it's out of the question between superpowers in these age of nuclear power...however Taiwan is a hot potato which could result in another 'cold war' where hostilities and tensions & instability will again reign.
Don't underestimate the 'China' wild card & potential impact on the fragile state of world markets. Add Russia, Iran & Middle East to the pot and stir.
This article provides food for thought:
TAIWAN's new premier used his first address to parliament
yesterday to vocally reiterate the nationalist island's defiance
of mainland China.
http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/pages/nchin04.html

...as the currency crisis continues...financial conditions in SE Asia deteriorate...how long before the effect spillsover to Japan, South America & ultimately the US & Europe?
SOUTH Korea's ailing brewery giant Jinro Group went
bankrupt yesterday after five months of self-rescue efforts
flopped, its major creditor bank said.

The insolvency of the country's 19th largest conglomerate sent the
already-sluggish stock market sliding, interest rates soaring and
knocked down the value of South Korea's weak won.
Jinro Group brushed with bankruptcy in April under debts of US$3.5
billion ( S$5.3 billion ) before its creditor banks allowed it to defer
repayments of debts and to find ways to get itself back to its feet. It
posted total sales of US$2.47 billion last year.
http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/pages/nasia01.html

Russia and China are working closely with Iran in building
long-range nuclear missiles that could be fielded within
three years, The Washington Times has learned.
. . . . A detailed Israeli intelligence report about the
cooperation, which was given to the CIA and Pentagon,
confirms that Iran is building two systems based on North
Korea's Nodong missile with ranges up to 1,200 miles,
Pentagon officials said.
http://www.washtimes.com/news/news3.html

2 points .... your question of many days ago to Mooney and I ... I don't know, I only do MF's ....

TRY
http://www papyrus.com

program is called Internet Trader ...

You're welcome !

TTRN

Ernst & Young have a good free site which provides charting and tech analysis. You can find it at www.papyrus.com. I find it quite useful. Good luck.

...just when you thought it's over...the nightmare will get worse...how can the disastrous finances of a country get better when there's political instability?
The prime minister adopted a defiant posture yesterday to the
opposition's no-confidence motion against him and his
government, but his problems could be coming from his own
coalition.

Chavalit Yongchaiyudh's vow to withstand the censure attack
came amid signs of growing distrust in his coalition, with
indications Chart Pattana might withdraw in the face of economic
and constitutional crises.
http://www.bangkokpost.net/today/1009_news06.html


Khunying Phankrua Yongchaiyudh is to seek help from Rahu,
the mythical "god of darkness," to keep her husband's coalition
government in one piece, a fortune-teller said yesterday.


http://www.bangkokpost.net/today/1009_news01.html

Selby: Try these three

http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/core/dbc/charts.html?SOURCE=core/dbc

http://ff5.quote.com/fq/quotecom/chart?mode=Daily+Chart

http://www.papyrus.com/ ( which requires software download first )

...half a dollar, half a dollar, half a dollar down rode the gallant gold brigade..."Wait a minute, hey! Wrong way! Wrong way!"......

Skylark: Regarding your post "battle of investment bankers", do you know who the two players are?

Thanks

THE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas ( BSP ) has sought the help of police investigators to
identify those who are spreading rumors that a number of banks are facing financial
difficulties and are on the verge of collapse.
http://www.portalinc.com/manilatimes/business5.html

My Goodness! Talk about conspiracy theory. That article about the
Rothchilds, their influence, and their propensity to gold is absolutely
astounding. I feel better now with my cash, gold stocks, and market
shorts ( and my newly acquired M16 ) . It would be interesting to see
how much metals related investments Bill Gates has. I know Clinton
is into them on some level.

How do you get an icon,that you don't want, off your screen????

Spud: "Please correct me, but I understand that under the current NYSE
rules if the market is down 350 points in a day, the market closes for
the day. What gives?"
Market does not close for the whole day. Don't remember for how long, but
it is something like a couple of hours to cool it off. There is some
site listing the rules but URL escapes me right now.

I figured it out....am gettin a damn HEADACHE....Will try some chainsawing for relief....XAU up .89

Front; auroelf; Richard Burke: Thanks for the directions. I'll check them out today.

A standard technique used by todays disinformation appratus is to brand an emerging line of thought ( that may be getting too close to a truth you do not want discussed ) as a "conspiracy". This will usually silence further discussion. Strad I am sure this was not your intent. For myself the word "conspiracy" has little meaning other than its use in disinformation. Certain facts in juxtaposition seem to imply things, just what is implied each individual must decide for him/her self. Try these four.

o A "terrorist" does not have the rights of a "citizen". He/she has no right to due process. If a terrorist is in your mist he/she may be killed for no reason other than being him/her self. I shot him because he is/was a terrorist.

o Last year the "terrorism bill" included a clause declaring all usa citizens "terrorists" if they commited any crime involving a firearm. I am not sure if this clause became law.

o Were a national emergency to be declared it is quite possible that possion of all firearms by "citizens" could be declared a crime. To be seen with a firearm in your possession could brand you a "firearms criminal".

o Currently special operations troops of the federal government are conducting "anti-terrorism" training exercises in many cities all across the usa. These exercises involve live ammo and apache gunships. I am not sure of the gunships color.

Big changes may be on the horizion. Gold may play an important part in the comming new world order, but only a part.

Information on the "Circuit Breakers", can be found at http://www.cme.com/market/riskman/pricelmt.html

ABX was upgraded from hold to buy by ABN AMRO in Chicago at 10:20 A.M. ( DJ news )

This is why the XAU is up.

..Vronsky your aid is needed re: translation from Portuguese ( Oglobo, Brazil )
Salomon Brothers prev queda de at 20% em Wall Street

NOVA YORK. O banco de investimentos Salomon Brothers prev uma queda entre 15% e
20% na Bolsa de Nova York em relao aos patamares mximos alcanados durante o
ms de agosto.

Em um informe que acaba de enviar a seus clientes, o banco advertiu que a bolsa entrou
em um perodo de "correo". "No podemos ignorar a chegada de uma fase cclica de
mercado em baixa", afirma o informe.

No entanto, muitos analistas dizem que estas previses, em grande parte das vezes, no
se concretizam.

- A Salomon prev quedas em Wall Street desde que o ndice Dow Jones estava em quatro
mil pontos. Hoje j est em oito mil - criticou um especialista de mercado.
http://www.oglobo.com.br/

Asian turmoil could widen US trade gap. Growing concern about the trade deficit is likely to be the primary risk to the dollar in the year ahead.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/10/z0003_z00_1.html

Remember, it'a a week and a half to the, "Triple Witch". Positioning going on now....

The Bundesbank is ready to put the brakes on inflation but sees no immediate need to raise interest rates, a senior official of the central bank was quoted as saying on Wednesday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/10/z0009_45.html

So where's the inflation -- the ultimate "truth" that this exercise seeks to uncover? I've said it before
and I'll say it again -- it's all in the lags. The experience over the past 40 years or so indicates that it
takes about five quarters for US inflation to pick up in response to a significant growth overshoot. By
our calculations, the inflation-stable threshold was breached seriously in 4Q96. If the lags of the past
are relevant in assessing what lies ahead, that means that the current growth overshoot won't prompt a
meaningful acceleration in inflation until 1Q98. In short, the recent good news on inflation is not at
odds with a traditional output gap assessment. To the contrary, this metric urges investors and the
Federal Reserve to enjoy the good news while they can. Unfortunately, the party is just about over.
http://www.ms.com/gef.html

Mornin' all

Ted - Don't be talkin' bad about my watered down 'bud'. It's refreshing ;- ) 'nother beaUtiful day out here! Gold at 300...probably lower...OK I love a Good Party! You are like me on the keyboard...dreadful...

Mike Sheller - You are right again. I woke gold up and it is Falling Out Of Bed... oh noooooo! ( mr bill ) :-0

Who Cares - Sorry last night if I was harsh. I love you man...you just get creepy sometimes. And you usually CRACK-ME-UP. C'mon Dude! :- ) )

Flatliner - you ask for requests?? how about: Take the High Road to China ( if that's not a song make it up )

Ron - Did you see that game this weekend...? Hurl???

Gold - Since that fateful day at 317, or so, your average has been... ( don't say it ) ...YES...3-2-5...give or take a few ticks...oh my! Only the options ( futures ) traders made a few bucks there ;-^ ) using time decay, but I did NOT...oh well...perhaps I'll go short today because the damn dam is about to burst!

away...to work? Love it!
EB

g'day all!

Glad to see you this AM. I cannot get through to Waterhouse online for first time in weeks, wonder if they're busy? Lucky I got out yesterday except for me metals and now one oil stock. BTW, URL for NYSE breakers: http://web223a.bbnplanet.com/public/glossary/09ix.htm

To all: Does anyone know who are principles/boards of directors of Franco-Nevada...whether N.M. Rothschilds & Sons are involved at all in equity financing or other advisor capacity?

Speaking of conspiracy, Nixon, Watergate prober aided cover-up.
http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/09/10/general_news/usnixonta_2.html

Nick @Canberra can you email me @senet.com.au please. I'd like to contact you. ( Note it's olson with 2 'o's not the scandanavian variety with an 'e'. )

Thanks,
Olson

nomercy: Free Translation: The investment banker Solomon Bros ( Solly ) forsees a 15% to 20% correction from August peak levels.

In a report sent to all its clients, Solly warned of a looming correction period. "We cannot ignore down cycle phase of the market."

Nevertheless, many analysts countered that often these cycles do not occur.

One market specialist points out Solly has been calling for a down cycle since the Dow Jones average was 4000 -- and today it is 8000.

To all chart techs: My broker says when a commodity ( like gold ) moves sideways for some distance, you can expect the next move to be an equalvalent distance either up or down. Does he know what he is talking about?

President Laurent Kabila's government in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has suspended operations at the Kilimoto gold fields near the Ugandan border, a government official said on Wednesday.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/10/abx_asl_y_1.html

SOMETIMES

Sometimes the move is equivalent...

and...

Sometimes your broker is right...

away...to sometimes be right...

EB ;-^ ) $$

if you are truly a beginner/learner you should print AND refer to Mike Shellers Sep9 12:59

LURKER: NO.

EU chief says euro is irreversible.
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/wires2/

Not relative to gold, but maybe you can use the refund to buy some.

State Farm Insurance Co. said Wednesday it will return $692.3 million to auto insurance policyholders in 30 states and the District of Columbia because claims have been lower than expected.
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/wires2/

SPUD MASTER & MIRO: I may be wrong, but the way I understand it, if the market goes down 350 it closes down for 2 hours. If it goes down 500 it closes for the rest of the day. I want Puetz to answer the same question - "What gives?"

bw: It is definiely NOT my intent to stifle debate or commentary in any way, however the idea that Flight 800 was shot down by the US which now maintains a massive envelope of silence around the event is ( for me ) more than a trifle farfetched. However, the comments you posted regarding weapons and terrorism are, indeed, cause for great concern.

I just read that there were TWO 'trading curbs' set at NYSE this a.m.

hmmmmmmmmmm...is that like a 'speed bump'?

eb

what's a trading curb ( as it relates to the NYSE )

Maybe of interest to some:
A presidential conference with Asian leaders was bugged by U.S. intelligence agencies, say high-level sources, and information was
passed from the White House to big Democratic corporate donors.
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a4751.htm

ALL.

What is the currently gold price?i lost the abn url,so does the ebn looked very sicked....!Very confused these days abt the forex markets here.the stock markets influnced the forex the currency influnced the stocks markets and the forex influnced the gold price and the thai politic lost the the directions and influnced the whole markets in south east asia...... ....i need to start my meditation practise now!CONCERNTRATIONS......CALM......!OOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Hi JIN! Last Comex gold price I got was @ 324.10 ( unchanged for the day )
About as exciting as watching paint dry.....

El Nino affects more than crops. Could gold mining be next?

El Nino hits copper supply. Drought causes BHP to declare force majeure on New Guinea shipments.
http://cnnfn.com/hotstories/companies/wires/9709/10/copper_wg/

Strad Master: Yeah, looks like you are wrong. Here is the official rule
as posted on NYSE URL posted by Panda
If market goes down 350 points from previous day's close trading
is suspended for 30 min.
If market goes down 550 points from previous day's close trading
is suspemded for 1 hour

MIRO: What shuts it down for th day?

Russell 1000/2000/3000 ALL DOWN. What happened to small/mid cap rally?

nomercy--can't help with the translation. Latin America may become more important as this depression scenario unfolds. I just wish I had taken more Latin in school so I could understand what they are saying down there!

JIN: abn url was changed to http://203.120.14/abn/mkt_up/commodities.html

Strad Master, there is nothing in rules and circuit breakers which would
shut the market for the whole day. I guess they can shut it down if "sky
was falling" but no event is specified in rules which would trigger the
total shut down.

One of the advantages/disadvantages of our global markets is that many nyse listed stocks may trade somewhere in this world even when the nyse is closed. In todays environment to truely cease trading in big stocks or one of their derivatives, all financial trading must cease worldwide. We may see this before its all over. However the result of this cessation of virtually all financial trading worldwide may not be what the panic controllers desire.

NOMERCY: If you have not read Milhouse on Gold Eagle ( Gold Digest ) you may find of interest. He maintains deflation is impossible per Greenie.
Interesting theory. Have always maintained at any given time you could read exactly the opposite view on any market subject and anything in between. So we all have to pick and choose don't we.

Miro: thanks for the NYSE shutdown criteria.

lurker: "What happened to the small-cap rally?" Nothing. It happended and is over. No one said it had to last months. Game over now. Women, children, red indians, neo-classic Renaissance men & Fed managers to the lifeboats. I repeat: there is no cause for alarm...

Wednesday, September 10, 1997

Taliban bombs opposition stronghold in northern
Afghanistan

KABUL, Afghanistan ( AP ) -- Warplanes of the Taliban religious army bombed the main opposition stronghold in northern Afghanistan today, and fighting broke out in and around the city for a second day, aid workers said.
http://www.canoe.ca/News/sep10_tab.html

Wednesday, September 10, 1997

Aid workers report heavy fighting in eastern Congo

NAIROBI, Kenya ( AP ) - Ethnic fighting has flared in eastern Congo, leaving at least seven dead in Goma and raising tensions in other border towns.
http://www.canoe.ca/News/sep10_congo.html

Ted @10:48

You can drag the icon into the recycle bin. :- )

Wednesday, September 10, 1997

Free trade debate heats up

Congressmen air beefs over Clinton's all-Americas trade talks

By PETER MORTON
Washington Bureau Chief The Financial Post

A group of Democrats are trying to derail Clinton's attempt to get fast-track negotiating authority to bring Chile and other South American countries into NAFTA. The Democrats say labor and environment, and now food safety standards, must be included in any new trade deal the U.S. signs.

Clinton plans to ask Congress today for fast-track negotiating authority but has backed off on legislation. Side deals are a problem, because the Republican-dominated Congress says they undermine U.S. interests.

Labor and environmental groups are against giving Clinton fast-track authority and plan to rally in front of the White House today.
A coalition of U.S. farm groups advocating free trade intends to lend its support to Clinton.

Ottawa has also offered the U.S. administration assistance.

Clinton needs fast-track approval to negotiate free trade agreements with other countries. The authority limits Congress to either approving or rejecting deals, but it cannot demand changes. It was used in both the Canada-U.S. trade agreement and NAFTA.

Virtually the entire debate on fast track has focused on NAFTA and continuing problems with Mexico and its relatively cheap labor pool.
"Our workers can't compete with workers who earn a bowl of rice a day," said Pascrell.

http://canoe2.canoe.ca/FP/sep10_freetraded.html

A phone rings at Alan Greenspan's desk.
Twice.
Thrice.
Four times.
Five times.
Camera zooms in as an aging, scelerotic hand, trembling faintly, picks up the handset.
"Yes, this is Alan..."
"This is _____ of ____ Bank; look Alan, this NYSE sell-off has gone on long enough today. It's time for the Fed 'rescue' team to step in again. Enough of this game of 'chicken', OK?".
A long, hard pause.
"Alan? Alan, are you there?"
Greenspan finally speaks, in a faint & tremulous world-weary voice:
"... the rescue team went in over two hours ago ..."

from The Wall Street Eavesdropper today on DBC

The chief equity strategist at Salomon Brothers is sniffing the air, and frowning. David Shulman released a report this week titled "The Scent of a Bear,"
reports the New York Post. He writes "A global correction in stock prices is under way. We anticipate that the U.S. market will decline by 15 to 20 percent from
its early August highs." Shulman looks for the Dow Jones Industrial average to fall as much as 1,200 points, to 6,600. More worrisome is his concern the drop
will not be one of those "buying opportunities," but rather the start of a real bear market, the Post says. His reasons: the capital gains tax cut has happened, and
selling has started; global growth will slow due to Asian market and currency problems, and finally "Stock prices are acting in much the same way they acted
when both the 1987 and 1929 blow-offs came to an end."

Roebear, Stradmaster, Speed, Spudmaster,et al -- I believe that if a sell-off occurs in the last half ( ? ) hour of trading, all of the circuit breaker rules are suspended. The market does, what the market does! BBL.

AH SO! SO they can also drive UP the prices in the last half hour depending on their strategy! THat half hour is interesting! Thanks!

THey = Mutual Funds, Market Makers, whoever manipulates. Gee, maybe I am getting auto-paranoid et al.

Strad, do aliens really cut out cow anuses? Does this cause
their colons to drop out? Talk about a wrecked-em rectum.

Do not get caught, in the middle of the action.
You must agree, the action is a fine tuned artistic wonder.
The financial wizards, are extremely organized and productive lot, eh!
No need to be paranoid, it is a sport, like hockey.

Well, is view of paper markets declining all over world, it is very
pitiful performance of gold today

bw & whomever is interested:

Fact: The ATF has a 1-800- # for anyone to call into ( anonymously ) to report a "terrorist" with an "assualt" weapon. Then, within hours of the phone call, for absolutely no charge what-so-ever, they will stake out the house for a few hours and at the right time, storm the house looking for "contraband". No due process, no warrant, only authorization from a local "chief". Well guess what? To little ole granny, a B-B gun may look like an "assault" weapon. There are documented cases of the ATF storming homes only to find toy guns, or .22 rifles or such. Oops, sorry... "file a claim against the government for the damage we caused". ( and hold your breath for any settlement ) . And BTW, if they find any other "contraband", it is admissable in court as evidence. "Contraband" is loosely defined in their books - household chemicals that could be combined to make "explosives" or "illicit drugs", firearms without sales receipts, ammo, MIXING BOWLS, "suspicious" plants/powders/etc... You'd be surprised how illegal your home could be made out to be. The only reason the security guard accused of being the "Olympic Bomber" got off was because of the publicity surrounding it. ( His mother finally got her Tupperware bowls back ) Every day, common folk are intimidated into not filing charges against the Government.

Fact: The Government is attempting to regulate nicotene as a controlled substance. Think they should, huh? Well if you're a smoker, as soon as this becomes law, you will not legally be able to buy a firearm. On the ATF Form 4473 ( required when legally purchasing a firearm from a licensed dealer ) there is a line on there that asks if your are "addicted to or regularly use" a controlled substance. If you answer yes ( i.e., you smoke ) , then the dealer will not be able to sell you a firearm. If you answer no ( and you really do smoke ) and they ever find out, you're subject to fines and jail. ( The nicotene bill has not been passed yet ) .

Fact: If you've ever had any sort of misdemeanor assault charge filed against you to where you pleaded guilty or no contest, you cannot legally own/purchase a firearm. ( This is great because it took the guns away from thousands of police officers still in active service )

Fact: You want to know what the U.S. Government will do if a bona fide "National Emergency" is ever declared, look at what they have done at all the recent U.N. sponsored "police" actions ( Greneda, Panama, Haiti ) - they attempted to disarm the populace in a variety of ways: out-and-out confiscation, good old fashioned Communist squeal-on-your-friend big brother tactics, amnesty "buy-back" of weapons ( ten bucks to a Haitian is a lot! ) , armed assaults on purported weapons "stockpiles", etc.

Sorry... somebody got me stirred up. I could go on, but...

The point: Is this a conspiracy by the current administration to curtail U.S. Citizens' rights in the name of "public safety" in response to all the U.S. increase in violence ( as spun by the media ) ?

Your call...

....assisting A. Greenspan vigilance on price inflation....
NEW YORK ( MktNews ) - U.S. producers of paper packaging materials say they are receiving
sharply higher prices prompted in part by continuing strong demand by factories that need boxes to
deliver finished goods.
The paper packaging industry, which has seen volatile price swings over the past two years, has
announced two steep price increases during the summer and another one is set for October.
http://www.economeister.com/curracct/970910ca/realt_fv.htm

EB or other tech: If gold does move up or down in the same proportion to the distance it has been moving sideways, how high ( or low ) would that take us?

Thanks

Artists or Con Artists? It matters not, as long as I can avoid being the puck in their hockey game; ) BTW, gold and gold stocks holding well so far today, will they tomorrow? Whaddaya think?

Roebear: " BTW, gold and gold stocks holding well so far today, will
they tomorrow? Whaddaya think?"
Why do you say gold is doing good? I though it kinda should move
contrary to paper market. So far I see it flat for today despite
decline in paper market ( and should we say prety good decline so far )

Dear Gunrunner :

As we discussed the other day, the universal "American" should not be used when applied to the immediately southern neighbours of Canada. In agreement of course, however, when you suggested "Yanks" does that not eliminate the "Rebs" that live a little further south of NewYork? I wouldn't want to offend any peoples especially when they've got guns and an attitutude * I * may have contributed to.... Any advice ? ( :- )

TTFN

Roebear: " BTW, gold and gold stocks holding well so far today, will
they tomorrow? Whaddaya think?"
Why do you say gold is doing good? I though it kinda should move
contrary to paper market. So far I see it flat for today.

learner
Here is a shorter disclaimer than Mike Sheller's, though not nearly so elegant. ( ( Wassat Mike? you get paid by the word??? reminds me of Section 1 of our Wills Act contains over 200 words and not one full stop, just semi-colons and commas ) )

"The information contained herein, while not guaranteed by us, has been obtained from sources that have not in the past proved particularly reliable."

From "Where Are The Customers Yachts"

I have generally found that free advice is worth what you pay for it.

A lovely morning and I got to work, cordammy.

See ya...

aurator.

Thanks for your post gunny. That really hit home, especially that
800 terrorist number. THink of what anyone with a grudge against
anyone else could do: simply call 1-800-NAZI R US. I had heard
recently that the state of Montana is considering prosecuting
Lon Horiouchi ( SP? ) the sniper who murdered Mrs. Weaver. Have you
Heard anything on this? Took a look at my new M16 last night; now
to get the ATF paperwork going ( guess I'm a terrorist now even
though Machine gun ownership is perfectly legal in many of our
50 states ) .

Tom McClellan was just interviewed on CNBC. He sure sounds a lot like Puetz. He's calling the fall Sept. 19-29.

Sorry for a double post, fingers are too fast and/or too fat ;- )

In Pitfalls for Contrarians

By LAURA JERESKI
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Say the words "speculator" and "Thailand" in the same
breath, and an image springs to mind of a rampaging
predator who breaks central banks for fun and profit.

Then there's Victor Niederhoffer. Author of this year's
"The Education of a Speculator," Mr. Niederhoffer bet
much of the $130 million he managed in Thailand, ground
zero in this summer's market turmoil in Southeast Asia.

Unfortunately, he bet big that the
Thai stock market and currency
would rally. Instead, both
plunged. As a result, the Global
Systems funds he manages are
down slightly more than 35% for
the year through Sept. 8.

And that's the good news. At the
end of August, Mr.
Neiderhoffer's hedge funds had
plummeted more than 50% in a
gut-wrenching three-week
meltdown before the market began rebounding late last
week. This performance comes in a year where many
hedge-fund managers have posted double-digit gains,
even as they have trailed the broader market.

Despite the rebound, Mr. Niederhoffer isn't cheering. "I
am totally bereft," the 54-year-old Mr. Niederhoffer said
in an interview late last week. Even after the rebound, he
called the loss "a tragedy" this week. "A lot of people
trusted me, and I feel terrible and distraught that they put
so much confidence in me." He intends to soldier on,
despite the depth and speed of the loss.

That stubbornness doesn't surprise those who know him.
Over the years, Mr. Niederhoffer has worked hard to
make a name for himself as a contrarian trader. Priding
himself on reading no newspaper besides the National
Enquirer, he habitually cites the African writer LoBagola,
who observed that stampeding elephants often retrace
their steps, to explain why he shuns trend-following.

In his engagingly self-aggrandizing autobiography, he
discoursed at length about the connections between
music and markets; his ample ramblings about sex can be
found between Thailand's SET stock index and
Shakespeare.

Perhaps more to the point as far as competitive behavior
goes, Mr. Niederhoffer has been the national squash
champion five times -- a sport he mastered at Harvard
that awards points to players when they swat their
opponents with the ball.

Such competitiveness has by and large paid off for Mr.
Niederhoffer's investors, off the court. Those who stuck
through 10 years of roller-coaster results in the hedge
funds would have nearly $11 for every dollar invested, a
27% average annual return as of the end of last year.
Hedge funds are private investment partnerships that
often use borrowed funds to pump up bets in stocks,
bonds, currencies and commodities.

All of which makes the current pickle that much more
embarrassing, he avers. Experts say a loss that big, by a
trader as established as Mr. Neiderhoffer, who has been
at it professionally for 15 years, is rare.

"I am not aware of any trader of this size being down this
much," says Sol Waksman of Barclay Trading Group, a
Fairfield, Iowa, firm that keeps tabs on futures managers.
"Twenty-five percent is considered as bad as it gets," he
says. In part, that's because many traders just fold up
shop when things get that bad -- or, if they are leveraged,
Wall Street closes the shop door for them.

Not so Mr. Niederhoffer. He won't say how much is left
of the $130 million he had on hand at his peak, in March
1997. ( He also manages some money in smaller
separately managed accounts, with a completely different
investment profile. )

Some fund clients have pulled out, he allows, but not
many. Key to his bounce, he says, is that he has kept as
much of his leveraged stock and currency positions as he
could -- the very ones that got him into trouble. "Let's
just say I am looking for a complete recovery in Thai
stocks," he says, adding that he also believes the
currency is undervalued.

Mr. Niederhoffer isn't bashful about explaining how he
got caught so long and wrong. He started looking at
Thailand about a year ago, when the stock market had
already begun its prolonged descent. "To me, the worse
things seem, the better they are," he says. By the time the
Thai market had dropped by one-third at the end of last
year, he was "sitting in front of a freight train."

Here's what happened. Earlier this year, currency
speculators and exporters began betting heavily that
Thailand's economy had grown so weak that its
currency, the baht, couldn't stay pegged to the U.S.
dollar. The government engaged in an expensive battle to
defend its currency, but ultimately lost, causing the
depressed stock market to plunge further, and triggering
a region-wide round of market declines.

There was an early indication that the positions were
fraught with peril. Month to month, Mr. Niederhoffer's
results were rocky: up 4.4% in January, down nearly 8%
by the end of March. Still, if he had gotten out at the end
of July, he would have delivered his investors a positive
( if prosaic ) 8.9% return.

But Mr. Niederhoffer hung in there. In August, he says,
he was in Southampton, N.Y., visiting his friend George
Soros, the noted hedge-fund manager, for whom he used
to execute some trades and manage a small sum. He says
Mr. Soros, the man reviled by finance ministers across
Southeast Asia who believe he caused the debacle, told
him -- not exactly, it turns out -- the stock market was
heading straight up. ( Mr. Soros's fund company has
repeatedly dismissed suggestions that he triggered the
market fall. )

Investors who are sticking it out seem resigned to such
vagaries. "It's pretty disastrous," says Tim Horne, chief
executive officer of plumbing-equipment maker Watts
Industries, who was Mr. Niederhoffer's first investor.
"But sometimes, you have to ride it out." He notes that
Mr. Niederhoffer had significant losses in his early years,
too, and always managed to come back.

Those erratic year-to-year results have taken their toll,
though. Mr. Niederhoffer has often wished to be
managing a larger fund; as recently as March, he was
saying he would like to raise several hundred million
dollars.

"He feels he should be managing a lot more money than
he does," says Antoine Bernheim, publisher of the U.S.
Offshore Funds Directory in New York. "But his record
scares people off -- he's good, but he's volatile."

My take, line of reasoning, is compatable to Puetz. I have a problem,
with the stars, being a major factor. Otherwise, yes, stocks go down,
and gold will hold ( resist ) , then the take off. ( give or take 3 months )

Be sure of a very important fact. The financial wizards, will not roll
over, they will fight to the finish. The wizards are very good at what
they do, they do the financial wizard profession honour.

Central Bankers & International Bankers & International Corporations,
& each, has an army of suits, to do their bidding. All have received
their individual training, and education, at the cost to the tax payers.

Speed: Thankx...it worked!...

Ted, that new way of posting works eh! Now you are going to be dangerous.
: ) : ) : ) : ) Enjoy, and take care.

Why is everyone so concerned about giving me investment advise? I don't need a disclaimer, I have LGB! : )

Well, I'm no tech but to me it looks like gold could sail up to 475 or slide down to 275. Now please advise which it will be!: )

Hi dude! Was dangerous before and now......Watch out!...Am reading a good book ( Canadian ) now: Fear,Greed and the end of the Rainbow by Andrew Sarlos...publisher:Key Porter ( Toronto ) ...good stuff and easy readin fer a dunce like mois....

Wednesday, September 10, 1997
Barrick takes $385M hit
Low prices for bullion force major gold producer to close five high-cost sites while increasing output at three big, low-cost mines

By PAUL BAGNELL
Mining Reporter The Financial Post
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/FP/sep10_barricktak.html

Ted, be warned. Reading ( Canadian ) , could be disruptive, to a USofA mindset. Enjoy the read eh! : ) : ) : )

Miro, my statement about gold doing well should be read in light of my morning post questioning if the XAU and gold might go down soon. This was according to my TA which = TENTATIVE analysis not technical analysis!: ) This afternoon it looks like the drop in stocks was helping gold and gold stocks, this time. I was hoping that some of the others much more adept at TA than I would comment this morning, I am just a student not a teacher! So beware "Roebear" analysis; )

TED Good on yer mate, & thanks for the earlier compliment. Really gotta go.
leaner, such impatience :- ) ) relax and lurk here, you'll learn so much.

6 Pak: My U.S. of A mindset ( ? ) was disrupted loooong ago...Whatta day: Dow down 132.63; Gold @ unch; and XAU down .22 ...all day fog+drizzle on Cape Breton coast....dead seal washed up in front of house....can IT get any better??? Tort: Where are you???

Aurator: And they ( my teachers ) said I was incapable of learnin.....

Dinner menu: Pilaf of bulghar Wheat and red Lentils....Can gold possibly get any more borin???....

6pak, while the answers may be in the stars, and I do not discount them, they may also be in the charts, and I do not discount them. In fact all these and many other things have answers for us, proven in hindsight. In foresight we are always lacking, a human condition. Perhaps the suits you mentioned are as good an indicator as any. Their moves are predictable. Yet when they lose control, their day is done and gold's has just begun.

Does anyone trade online with Datek? Any comments, positive or negative on them? Right now I trade w/ two disc. brokers. Datek's rates are much lower, but I've heard negative comments about online brokerage houses. Would appreciate any input.

...patience is a virtue....

Whilst on the 'surface' we witness what may be referred to as boring gold action, I believe the opposite is taking place.
..Calm before a Storm....
a ) A tug of war between hedge funds, short sellers & longs is taking place in the pits, to a standstill.
b ) Short hedge funds ( paper ) CANNOT allow gold ( the contrarian ) to escape. It would be disastrous to the delicate World financial stability, as it would certainly be an influencing factor or the spark, to convince the paper bulls that their reign is over & create a panic.
c ) By keeping the pressure on , it forces high cost producers, forward selling ( S.Africa & Australia ) ---thus maintaing selling pressure and making physical gold available to willing buyers. How clever. The 'shorts' are forcing 'producers' to borrow the gold! and keep the pressure on gold prices.
d ) Significant physical buying from India has not yet materiazed ( expected end of September ) .
e ) Hedged producers such as Barrick ( ABX ) have not assisted gold prices, as THEY used, this excuse ( low gold prices ) to clean up their ( Balance sheet ) . They wrote off bad investments. Will they NOW buy back their forward sales?
f ) Paper bulls have not given up YET. The trend has changed ( from buy to hold ) . They're 'hanging' in there. It has been very rewarding for investors for them to give up their game easily.
g ) A lot of body punches have been delivered to paper bulls. From higher inflation & wage pressures on the horizon, as well as higher interest rates ( Bonds yields will RISE, as the supply of bonds, both private and public will accelarate in the coming months ) , currency turmoil and corresponding collateral effects ( bad debts, loans defaults, bankrupties, etc. are still to PLAYED out., possible Tequila effect on to S. America ( would be disastrous to US exports & bank loans ) Japan's economic problems, over valued world stock markets led by the US., consumer debt, margin debt etc.etc.

h ) Gold investment buying will materialize as FEAR INCREASES.

i ) US $ is being 'sold' as world reserve currency by 'New World Order'. This posture is difficult to maintain as the strength is 'window dressing' and not realistic. It is difficult to maintain inflows of foreign funds to keep flowing toward the US and maintain market stability, exports equilibrium and keep inflationary pressures down from cheap imports. It is difficult to maintain emerging/aspiring superpowers such as China ( and allies ) from expanding and constrain them, toward the New World Order will and accept their monetary standards. How will EMU affect the mix? or delay of EMU?

..far from boring

Wednesday, September 10, 1997

Army troops fire at Israeli gunboats off southern Lebanon


The Iranian-backed Hezbollah is trying to oust the about 1,500 Israeli soldiers and 2,500 allied
militiamen from a border strip Israel set up in 1985 to try to shield its northern towns from
cross-border guerrilla incursions.
http://www.canoe.ca/News/sep10_israel2.html

World Gold Council sees UAE gain from India move

DUBAI, Sept 10 ( Reuter ) - The Reserve Bank of India's ( RBI ) decision to allow seven banks to import gold will, contrary to
some analysts' expectations, boost gold trade through nearby Dubai in the short term, the World Gold Council ( WGC ) said.
WGC Middle East and India chief executive Rolf Schneebeli said Dubai's well-established gold trade, low risk rating, cheap
freight and insurance rates and good air connections with and proximity to India ensured the emirate would remain the main
supplier of gold to the world's single biggest consumer.
"It is good news for Dubai. When India's gold ( market ) was partially liberalised in 1991/92 there was concern trade through
Dubai would slow, but volumes actually took off," he told Reuters.
http://www.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/WORLD-GOLD-COUNCIL-SE.html

September 10, 1997
Clinton turns to Republicans for fast track trade help

WASHINGTON ( AP ) - With fellow Democrats leading the fight against him, President Bill Clinton kicked off an uphill battle Wednesday to broaden his authority to negotiate trade agreements.

"We have to act now," he said in a White House speech. Yet Clinton himself was not ready to act: Stiff opposition delayed White House plans to submit "fast-track" legislation to the U.S. Congress to expand the North American free trade agreement to other countries.
He said refusing to give him fast-track authority would signal to the world that the U.S. is no longer a major global player. "This is a good thing for us economically - and it is absolutely critical for our world leadership," he said.
The White House audience who heard Clinton's rallying cry was filled with fast-track supporters, including several business owners.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Clinton-Trade.html

***********BOOK MARK THIS SITE FOR MAI INFORMATION*************
Multilateral Agreement on Investment
Draft, Distributed January 13, 1997

Cancels and replaces the same document: sent on OLIS 08-Jan-1997

TABLE OF CONTENTS

[ Back to Multinational Monitor Home Page ][Public Citizen's Fact Sheet on the MAI ]
http://www.essential.org/monitor/mai/contents.html

Checkin' the market action whilst I got a few minutes. Plat up :- ) )
Gold-yawn ;- ) Stocks...down?? Hmmmmmmm...

Learner - This gold market has long ago proven itself to go against technicals. Gold seems to be screwed for the time being. If you have read any of what has been said the cause is anywhere from CB manipulation to 747's being shot out of the air. I DON'T KNOW. Gold has been in a bear market for a LOOOOONG time and although it has shown us Bullish technical pictures the TREND IS YOUR FRIEND. That pennant ( sideway tug-o-war ) you see is a buy/sell on the breakout. Wait for the breakout. Follow Aurators advice and be patient. If you have read any of MY previous posts you know which direction I think it will go...like water down a drain...like lead thrown out of an airplane...like the Titanic on a cold Atlantic eve...enough?

Do your homework, bro.

away...to grind some lenses...

EB

Ted, what should I bring. Red or white with buhlgar and lentils?? And what is the after dinner smoke? Bolivian, Dominican, Cuban or Sensamillian?? ;-^ ) )

Ted, I'm here. I'm just a bit speechless today and jokes have been poor that I have been able to put my hands on. I'm still wrestling alligators. In answer to your question gold could not be more boring than it is right now. But boring is better than going down. My mother in law is here and will buy pizza tonight for us--mixed emotions, free dinner, mother-in-law--know what I mean?

Oh no!!! I bought BGO at BARGAIN levels last week. Trouble is its a better bargain today - OR IS IT???? A month ag0 - maybe 6 weeks I looked at option activity on BGO and found someone had purchased TEN THOUSAND strike price $5.00 puts for Oct. I wonder what they knew???? ( please post here as mu E-mail has problems ) BGO - buy more? sell? or hold...............?

Dow/Gold Ratio 24.02

KESTAS: Why don't you post your question on the SI BGO thread, where a number of BGO shareholders reside

Speed,
Per you 7:03 AM post.
Surely the time is near when gold starts going UP!!!
My grandfather used to say that "when they have no respect for you and don't fear you - they don't talk about you. But when they are scared of you......then they need to talk you down in order to give themselves courage!!! When WSJ, on the front page, feels the need to badmouth pitiful gold-Im buying!!!

Nomercy: I very much agree with you that the US wont be able to "fulfill
the expectation". Many posters used the inflow of money as very positive
sign for the US markets, something which will keep stox going up,
economy going, etc. I always questioned that. How can it be healthy
when the whole world would keep pumping money into economy which is
just a part of the world economy ( though a significant part ) and because
of that the rate of growth can not keep up with inflow of money. This
will eventually be a Trojan horse which will destroy it - inflate it
so much that the only way how to get it back on track is through the
steep correction ( OK, if you prefer, call it crash ;- )

Learner: Free advice - Don't waste your money on Ken Roberts. Or better yet, send him the money, get his "course" , read his book, listen to his tapes, digest what little valuable information he offers, paper trade for a few weeks, AND THEN send it back to Grant's Pass to get his guaranteed refund of your $$ : )

Front: No problem, most "Rebs" ( a.k.a., "rednecks" ) seldom go beyond the borders of their home state ( or county or township or valley... ) , much less international borders ( ; ) ) . Rebs/rednecks seldom hear the term. "Yanks" is more accepted internationally among English speaking countries. It just sounds so amusingly insulting. Must admit, tho, I HAVE heard a Southern lady protest loudly at being called a Yank - "I ain't no dayam Yankee, I wuz born rat heeyuh in Hatlanta, Jawjuh and I am proud to be a Rebel". Bless her heart - I thought I had induced appendicitis I was laughing so hard!

Did you hear the one about the redneck who introduced a friend to his wife and sister? The friend looked to see only only one girl standing there. ( Jeff Foxworthy - thanx - I've got a million of 'em )

General - Yes, and the FBI is livid. But, the state is also filing charges against the fellow ( Weaver's friend ) who shot and killed the agent.

SHek you said "When they're scared of you, they need to talk you down to give themselves courage..." does that also apply to "Contrary to the Contrarians" who give grief to long term "Crash" TA theorists, and ill timed perpetual Goldbugs??

Learner, That's right, LGB is on the job so all disclaimers may henceforth be dropped from all posts!

When duty calls, I do not fret, I turn around and run!!

Puetz, Puetz, Puetz, here I was all set to be kind and I see more analysis based on the eclipse! Time for more poetry? Dust will be settling on the shoeshine polish pal! Now, what I wonder about is next week's triple witching hour. Any predictions? For once we'll line up on the smae side because I think it'll be a downturn...which will allow this "Dipster" to buy back in 10% or so.

Wha Cares..I never said WACO was a legit operation. The ATF / FBI botched it badly, quite obviously. As to total media complicity in a conspiracy, I don't believe it. Bias yes, conspiracy no. They like to show Bill C's good buddy Janet in a good light, so they were biased to make the Davidians the bad guy's in every way in that case. Similar to some of the "Clinton" related stories that 60 Minutes et al have run. That Vince Foster thing has me wondering though........ Hillary knows something eh?

Did you have a chance to scan aurator's am critique ( in three parts? ) of the eclipse@market crash phenomena - and his conclusions? Somewhere between 1:00 & 2:00 am EDT I think.

BLL

OK all, another SILVER anecdote that may be evidence of an upturn ahead. ( Shame on all of you who said LGB wasn't into PM's by the way ) . In the past 2 weeks, I placed 4 orders with 4 large mail order coin company's. In all 4 cases, they told me they were having more trouble keeping coins in stock than they have had in years! In one case, I was placing an order for a mere 2000 BU Mercury dimes, 40 rolls, with a very large well known dealer, and he told me they simply didn't have them in stock.... Then we see silver up yet again today.... Hmmm, did LGB guess right again on moving into Platinum & Silver in the past few weeks???? Still havn't bought any gold yet, but on the verge, waiting for that lasy little down tick, it's looking mighty weak.

Thanks Craig, I'll run & check it out. ( LGB @Blood on the Moon )

I have been away from the line all day and therefore was surprised to see the markets tanking big time today. I was wondering about the smell of burning paper today. My third grandchild was just born so it must mean that this is a gold baby. I think this is an omen that gold will shine.

Congrats Grand Pa.....

Dipster Moron Club of Investment ( founded 1928 )

LGB noticed that you have classified yourself as a Dipster. Not so fast.Though your profile, seemes to adhere to our principles & objectives of dipping, your application is incomplete and our board of directors are unable to provide you with official Dipster status.

More later. Got to go, lots of dipping tonight in Asia.

Wednesday, September 10, 1997

Reform, Liberals talk about teaming up on national unity
front
Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe suggested that what's really happening is that the Liberals have
adopted a get-tough-on-Quebec policy so long advocated by Manning.
"I think that's why Preston Manning's saying now that he's more open now to national unity since
the Liberals are going towards the Reform, not towards a solution with Quebec."
http://www.canoe.ca/News/sep10_reform.html

Wednesday, September 10, 1997

Bloc Quebecois vows to demolish federalism
"The federalists will stop at nothing, nothing. Some of them even talk about using the army."
Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe defended Plamondon's remarks. Asked about the word demolish, he
said the MP was using a figure of speech.
"It's a question of style. It's not the first time we ( heard ) an expression like that here in Ottawa."
Duceppe said that in the last session, the Bloc often met with public-interest groups based outside
Quebec because many of these groups refused to deal with the Reform Party.
Now it will not have to meet such groups because they can go to the New Democrats or the
Conservatives, he said.
"We'll always be respectful of the rules here in the House."
http://www.canoe.ca/News/sep10_bloc.html

EB ( 18:00 ) The "white" followed by some mellow sensamillian would hit the spot....

Ted: Yeah!!! go man go!

Aurator, ( danger, danger Will Robinson ) re your 01:37, 1:41, and 1:43 analysis of Putze's crash predictions. You are making a FATAL error in your critique. Your error is applying deductive reasoning, logic, and genuine fact based analysis to bear of Puetze's T.A. crash theories. Do you NOT realize that Puetz has a fanatical following of religious zealots who have told me over and over again, that exotic analysis accompanied by massive financial losses, is far superior to common sense analysis ( accompanied by large GAINS!! ) . You in trouble now boy! You'll face the wrath of all the perpetually wrong Gloom and Doomers now son!! Glad someone stepped up to the plate, .... Course I'm a country bumpkin and way too "dumb" to do any reasonable research or analysis so glad you did some legwork.

By the way, your analysis reminds me of a classic recent story on the gullibility of the American public. A Grad student was asking passerby's to sign his petition for legislation banning a dangerous chemical. All the requested public signers were given a pamphlet and verbal information as to why the chemical should be banned.

The info. stated that the dangerous chemical was, "Di-Hydrogen, mono Oxy liquidus". They gave the name and told those that were questioned, that said chemical had caused respitory problems and death when ingested into the lungs, would scald the skin under certain conditions, had been found in the food supply, was found in large amounts among certain recently deceased humans with cancer, etc.etc.

Those surveyed agreed to sign the "Ban" on the chemical, by a 19 to 1 margin!! The chemical of course is water, which causes drowning when ingested in lungs, sclading when heated to steam, and exsists in all "dead" ( or live ) animals, with cancer or not.

That's the kind of thinking you'll find a lot among "Gloom and Doom" chart and graph crowd. They don't care whether a premise is logical when critically scrutinized, only whether there is "data" to support it. Make the facts fit the premise, not the other way around.

Well, when the inevitable market crash/metals rise DOES occur, they'll finally be right for a short moment in history eh?? After all, it's closer NOW than it has been for the past 10 years!!!!!

TED: Gold can't get any more borin' than yer dinner menu! ( :- ) ) EB: Your taste in smoke is to be commended. LGB: Thanks. My disclaimer was taking up too much "bandwidth" ( as in "the band played on" ) . Watch out widers n' orphens!

Ted, you don't advise smoking gold do you? Maybe if it was found to have narcotic properties, THAT would drive up the price! ( I never inhaled...LGB )

Amazingly, I was llistening to a respectred market technician three
days ago. He stated that extremely high positive up tick days in
which the market ends up going nowhere at the end of the day is usualy
followed by a severe down move. Yesterday, we had periods of plus
600-700 up tick periods and the Dow and S&P went nowhere. Guess
what happened today!

Dipster ( DMCI ) ,

I'm interested in joining your club, do you have a separate chapter for PM investors? I'm seriously considering investing in gold, which appears to be in the midst of an 12 year dip. Does this qualify? Or do you still have to be vested in "paper" equities? I chose to liquidate my holding in that area last July. Let me know the requirements & thanks. ;- )

Craig, Dipster not only has a chapter for "Moron investors in PM's" but he himself FOUNDED, and has CHAIRED said chapter since 1980!! No wonder he sounds bitter eh? Like you, I recently took my "phony, phantom, pretend, paper" profts out of the market, and now intend to join "Dipsters" PM chapter. AS to the Equity market, I'll avearge back in on a good dip, and average out when economic news warrants getting out.

Large article in USA Today, "Get Ready, U.S. Investors; you'll love the euro"....'When the euro comes into existence, for the first time since WWII there will be a good place to go if one wants to get out of dollars.' ..... ( my question is, will this 'alternative' negate gold, IF the 'powers that be' ( NWO ) , wish it so??? )

Anybody following "black gold" should watch TMR. Up 1/4 today in heavy volume. Fidelity Select Energy Services FSESX up today also. Somebody thinks highly of oil, gas and the rigs that find them. The CEO of Texaco was on CNBC this morning and he said it will take up to 1-2 years for the supply of drilling rigs to catch up to the demand.

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Mr Puetz, Who I WON'T call a Loon,
Said a crash would be coming real soon,
So I'll take a big chance
And I'll pull down my pants
There you go Puetz, you have your full moon!

Mr.LGB ( 19:48 ) Ya sure ya never inhaled????....Mike Sheller: What the hell is borin about lentils+ bulghar????....

Never inhaled Ted but they DID mention somethng about dropping me on my head when I was an infant.... must be why I can't grasp all this ANALysiz stuff!!

I wouldn't like to have to look at Janet in good light bad light ANY light. She got hit with the OOOgly stick...

AWAY...to find the last shred of SUNlight

EB

ok, ok, I was just kidding...but ya' gotta admit...only a mother could love it...

Don't get me wrong - ok, I did make more money in paper than in PM's this year. Ok, I made money in paper and lost money in PMs this year. Though I did not make anywhere near what you claim to have. Right now I'm completely on the sidelines, using my own entry/exit signals. It is a very rudimentary system - which limits my losses as well as my gains. I'm looking to improve it.
If you look at my first post yesterday - asking for general input as to varied indicators/program/software recommendations etc. - with the express purpose of testing the supposed relationships in multiple contexts for validity ( short, medium & long term ) you could infer that that was where I was headed. I am interested in gold because it's been looking so sick lately - that's all.

As someone once said:

"What are the facts? Again and again and again - what are the facts? Shun wishful thinking, ignore divine revelation, forget what "the stars foretell," avoid opinion, care not what the neighbors think, never mind the unguessable "verdict of history" - what are the facts, and to how many decimal places? You pilot always into an unknown future; facts are your single clue. Get the facts!"

and ( I think someone already used this today )

"Anything free is worth what you pay for it."

Now that I have probably incurred the wrath of Kitco, back to my cave... ;-o

On the front page of the Wall Street Journal -- BEARISH ARTICLE ON GOLD!! They say gold is only for grandpa's who still remember the depression.

If this isn't the ultimate contrary indicator, I don't know what is. BUY GOLD AND SILVER NOW!!!

Personally I prefer silver & Platinum at the moment Craig, but what would drive gold up? I think a new Middle East war would, something looming larger lately as a possibility. Detonation of a nuclear warhead by any of the morons who have bought or stolen one from Russia, or, like Iran, are currently developing one.

Neither scenario is a very plesant prospect to base an investment decision on. If you read Greenspan's speech and a lot of similar comments by other world financial leaders, posted here by kind Kitco souls, it's obvious Greenspan, worlds CB's, EU, and many others no longer believe gold has any genuine store of monetary value. Hence it appears only massive inflation, an energy crises, a major financial meltdown, or a major conflict would have the power to drive it up to much higher levels.

Notice that in recent years, gold has posted virtually no movement in response to world events, ( in fact even the gulf war turned out bearish for gold wghen analysts saw that even that conflict hardly budged gold's price ) . This is a major shift from the 60's and 70's. It'll take something BIG I think to really drive it up, and even then, look how far it has to go even to recover, just to the $400 or so level it has mainly maintained for the past few years.........then add in how farit has to go beyond that to compensate for inflation of the past 15 years....then how much it has to go to ( if you're an investor ) to make up for the lost interest on investments... or even worse, the lost gains in STOCKS..and we have the explanation as to why the perpetual "Goldbugs" have been so cranky toward those calling them "crankpots".

Craig, your comment "Anything free is worth what you pay for it" somehow
indicates that Kitco posters provide advice for investing in Gold.
I have never thought that "getting advice" is what this forum is about.
I'll never forget the advice from my university professor saying "higher
education is not about learning hard facts, it's about learning how to
think, how to go about collecting the information, how to analyze it and
make intelligent decision on your own.
I treat Kitco as "higher education forum" and from that point of view I
get more than what I pay for ;- )

WSJ article no indicator at all, my lunar loving pal! Tell Baby Boomers who have never seen, owned, or cared about an AE, Rand, ML, etc. and made 400% in the past few years in stocks will now get interested in yellow metal? Get real! They'll give you blank stares re gold even IF you're ultra long shot crash occurs. Now if a genuinely fightening world crises erupts, we'll have a different story.

Last comment on silver and platinum is correct. There is no room
aove present levels for shorts, believe me.

Is there anybody that can tell me what the minimum gold mineralization
could be in a low grade deposit to make an open pit profitable. Amax Gold's Fort Knox deposit is supposed to be only .03 opt. This seems pretty low to me but the numbers out of this area are in this range.
How much greater does the value have to be in an underground hard rock mine?

LGB ( @Aurator/Puetz, Eclipses ) :

LGB, I would very much appreciate, having your explanation of money.

How it is created. Why it has such enormous value. Most importantly, why,
would such knowledgeable experts in the world, devote a life time, to the
study, and indepth calculations of wealth, based on money.

I accept your material as presented, and obviously, you are not a person
that can be fooled eh! Thanks in advance, and take care.

"By the way, your analysis reminds me of a classic recent story on the gullibility of the American public. A Grad student was asking passerby's to sign his petition for legislation banning a dangerous chemical. All the requested public signers were given a pamphlet and verbal information as to why the chemical should be banned. "

ENUF ter make me quick smoking.

LGB: The boomers who have made 400% in the last several years are going to look hard for similar profits during the coming bear market ( notacrash ) . Where will profits be found? Hard times are already causing Asian markets to turn to the U.S. dollar ( not gold ) . What sorts of events could cause confidence in the dollar to wane? Only a serious decline in the dollar will boost gold. The U.S. dollar will suffer if:
1. The Euro gets off the ground
2. A consortium of countries sell large quantities of dollars
3. One or major nations dumps treasuries to "punish" the U.S.
4. The U.S. goes into a recession and prints a great deal of paper ( dollars and bonds ) to cover higher costs of welfare programs. Too much supply could sink the market.

The probabilities of any of these events is just not very high right now.
Now where are those 100 missing a-bombs?

I inhaled!!

Oh, that explains it. You INHALED the ugly stick.

away...??
eb

EB: How dare you,you young wipper-snapper!

EB, if you think Janet Reno is bad check out the picture of Paula Jones in this week's Newsweek. She should sue them for libel. I have never seen a worse picture of anyone. It looks like Newsweek is coming out in favor of Clinton with shots like that.

ted@1940-------

tssmifatimm--------ride-ride-ride ( jojo gunne )

Nikkei 225 down 317 ( 1.70% ) Dec. gold up .10 @ 324.20 on less volume than silver ( up 1.2 cents ) ....Tort: how was the pizza??

JANET RENO: Enough of this fun. I absolutely refuse to indict my buddy in the White House, or his wife, after all he did reappoint me! Love that lady! ;- )

Hey dude!....Big swells rollin in....from hurricane Erika....Willy thinks flux is gettin closer....

"Durban poison" is my favorite this year

Ted, the pizza was pretty much overrated--burnt, crusty, wrinkled, dry; not unlike the mother-in-law. Check your mail box--it may be loaded. Looks like its down some more on the markets. Here's a little British humor. I understood it after a couple of reads.

In a nearly empty London bar on a filthy winter's day, there were several patrons quietly drinking when in comes your stereotypical American visitor, obviously unimpressed by the country, its weather and everything else about it.

He says loudly: "What a lousy country. The bars are shut half the time, it's cold, wet and windy, the beer tastes like piss and is served at the same temperature, the streets are packed and you can't even get a cab."

Several people quietly leave.

He looks at a gentleman quietly sipping a pink gin and says: "Hey, limey: how can you bear to live in such a miserable place?"

He is ignored, more people leave. After much more of this only the gentleman with the pink gin, the barman and the American are left.

He says: "Hey, limey: I'm talking to you. I've been to damn near every country in the world and this is the lousiest. I dunno how you can bear to live here. This country is just the arsehole of the world."

The gentleman with the pink gin pauses, takes another sip and, turning, delicately enquires of the American: "Oh, yes. Just passing through, are you?"

TORT: Newsweek coming out in favor of Klinton? Come on Tort, you know who owns them I am sure. And we know 90% of their reporters etc. are Libs! The whitewash is on, oh, excuse me, the whitewaterwash is on!

Aurator: I had mis-reported earlier how many crashes started near a lunar eclipse. I went digging through my old files and got the correct numbers below. There were actually more crashes that started at the time of a lunar eclipse that I had reported. Full-moon's ( especially the lunar-eclipse variety ) tend to come a few days after the crash begins. Here they are:

NEAR A FULL-MOON ( 6 weeks before a solar eclipse ) :

1 ) Panic of 1873 -- From 487.00 on 9-2-1873, stocks fell to 351.25 on 9-20-1873. Full moon was on 9-6-1873, 4 days after the panic began.


NEAR A FULL-MOON ( 2 weeks before a solar eclipse ) :

1 ) Crash of 1929: From 352.86 on 10-10-1929, the DJIA collapsed to 198.69 on 11-13-1929. The full-moon came 8 days after the decline started ( although, virtually all of the crash came after the full-moon ) .


NEAR THE TIME OF A LUNAR-ECLIPSE:

1 ) The silver panic of 1920 started from $1.18 on 4-26-1920, and fell to $.81 on 6-9-1920. A lunar eclipse came 6 days after the decline started.

2 ) The Mississippi Bubble ( Gregorian calendar in France ) . Mississippi shares started falling from 11,900 on 2-8-1720, and fell to 8,000 3-4-1720, when trading was halted after French government attempts to provide support to the market failed. A lunar-eclipse on 2-7-1720 came 1 day before the panic started. When trading resumed the following June, shares collapsed to 2,000.

3 ) The South Sea Bubble ( Julian calendar in England ) . South Sea shares collapsed from 790 on 8-26-1720, to 195 on 10-8-1720. A lunar-eclipse occurred on 8-19-1720, 7 days before the collapse began.

4 ) The Panic of 1857: Railroad stocks fell from 339 on 9-3-1857 to 214 on 10-12-1857. A lunar-eclipse came 1 day after the panic started -- on 9-4-1857.

5 ) The Tulip-mania of 1637 ( Gregorian calendar in Holland ) : From 35 florins on 2-4-1637, Switser's bulbs fell to 1 florin on 4-1-1637 ( the ultimate April fool's joke ) . A lunar-eclipse came 4 days after the total collapse of Tulip-mania began.

6 ) The Precious metal's crash of 1980: From 3-4-1980 ( gold $674, silver $37.55, platinum $1000 ) , prices crashed until 3-27-1980 ( gold $496, silver $12.00, platinum $482 ) . A lunar-eclipse occurred on 3-1-1980, 3 days before the crash began.

7 ) The stock market crash of 1987: From DJIA 2641 on 10-2-1987, the DJIA fell to 1738 on 10-19-1987. A lunar-eclipse came on 10-6-1987, 4 days after the crash began.

8 ) The Tokyo crash of 1990: From Nikkei 37,667 on 2-2-1990, the Nikkei dropped to 28,002 on 4-2-1990 ( another April fool's joke ) . A lunar eclipse came on 2-9-1990, 7 days after the crash began.


NEAR A FULL-MOON ( 2 weeks after a solar eclipse ) :

None.


NEAR A FULL-MOON ( 6 weeks after a solar eclipse ) :

1 ) The Panic of 1869: Railroad stocks fell from 674 on 9-13-1869 to 566 on 9-29-1869. During the same time, speculators Gould & Fisk drove gold up from 135 to 162. A full-moon occurred on 9-20-1869, 7 days after the panic started.

2 ) The Soybean crash of 1977 ( Bunk Hunter's 1st unsuccessful attempt to corner a major commodity market during the 1970's ) : From $9.74 per bushel on 6-1-1977, soybeans collapsed to $5.80 on 7-12-1977. The collapse started the same day as a full-moon -- 6-1-1977.

SEVERAL points are worth mentioning:

1 ) My theory is this: Crashes tend to start at the time of full-moons. On average, they actually start a few days before a full-moon. The most likely full-moon to precipitate a crash is the fullest of full-moons -- a lunar eclipse.

2 ) I have never stated ( some people tend to put words in my mouth that I never said ) that full-moon or eclipses cause crashes -- just that they start near the time of a full-moon. And, the the correlation is statistically significant. Full-moons and eclipses are mearly one of many of the timing indicators to pin-point when the crash is likely to begin.

3 ) Before a crash can begin, the must be the pre-conditions of extreme over-valuation and excessive amounts of leveraging. We have those by the bushel basket today.

4 ) We also have other timing indicators ( from previous crashes ) , that give clues to when the crash might start:

4 a ) The seasonal pattern -- most crashes occur during the months of September and October. 1/2 of the above crashes came during Sept-Oct: South Sea Bubble collapse, Panic of 1857, Panic of 1869, Panic of 1873, Crash on 1929, Crash of 1987.

4 b ) The decade pattern ( with the 7th year as the most bearish ) : 1/3 of the crashes came during the 7th year -- The collapse of the Tulip-mania in 1637, the Panic of 1857, the Soybean crash of 1977, the Crash of 1987.

4 c ) The 6-week topping pattern.


Now, on September 10, 1997, here is what we have:

A ) We have the most over-valued, most excessively leveraged stock market in history.

B ) 1997 is the 7th year of the decade -- traditionally the most bearish.

C ) Within the most bearish year of the decade, we are also now in the time-frame of the most bearish months of the year -- September-October.

D ) Yesterday, the stock market completed the final top ( of a 3-peak topping process ) . These tops normally take 6 weeks to develop. Some take place within 5 weeks, other last 7 weeks. The South Sea Bubble took 10 weeks to top out.

E ) A lunar-eclipse occurs on September 16, 1997.

Everything is falling into place. Stay short the stock market. After a few more moderate declines ( like today ) , we should start to see the decline intensify in momentum. Watch for huge stock market declines by the end of next week.

BEARISH AS EVER,

Steve Puetz

Final note, LGB, in this deflationary environment, there are some reports of inflationary developments -- reports are surfacing of shortages of shoe-polish. Buy shoe-polish now, before prices rise further.

Gentlemen:

I received this via a news release this evening but I just don't understand it. Would some kind soul please translate this into a more simplified format for the "slow-pokes" of the group ( namely me tonight ! ) Thanks in advance ....

"Pegasus's Evans disputed that outlook. "Silver's open interest is
at its lowest level in years," he said. "We're not talking about a
liquid market. It wouldn't take a whole lot of volume to knock the
market back down."

On the other hand, floor traders noted that the lease rates for
silver have increased from 1 percent to 3 percent in the last
month. "It's getting very expensive to borrow silver," he said.
"It could really cap any downward pressure on prices."

He noted that falling open interest in upward trending market is a
divergence that often signals a downward breakout."

TTFN

Nelson; every mining project is a case within itself.
If it's a low grade open pit 'heap leach mine' look for low stripping ratios ( the amount of waste removed to allow for one ton [or tonne] of ore to be mined ) , then look at projected recoveries to be at least 70% or greater.
Management and cash in the till are extremely important. If the miner cannot plan its mine properly, purchase good equiptment and find those those who know how to use it, they probably will have problems.
I believe AMAX is using a mill for Fort Knox, a mill cost a lot. In my recollection, not many mines milling low grade have done well, unless the mill capacity is high and recoveries much higher than a heap leacher's 65% to 70%.
High mill capacity generally means big bank loans, which can temporarily hold earnings down. Also location is important. Since Cypress Amax is a shareholder, Amax should come around, but it may take some time, especially at todays gold price
Present low gold prices are of no consolation either.

Tom T.: I got your e-mail message, and I'll answer it here. Purdue's chances of beating Notre Dame this weekend -- slim and none. God's on their side. I hate talking about my alma mater that way, but those are the facts.

MIRO: Profound advise you got from your Prof. Learning to think for ourselves is the first step. Putting all the info we can into our brains is the second. Decision making is the third and last and hardest.

Hang Seng down 310 ( 2.09% ) ....Nikkei down 346 ( 1.85% ) ...KLSE down 26.29 ( 3.05% ) ....Asian equity rally didn't last loooong....Tort: too bad about pizza.....and mother-in-law...no mail yet ( maybe Willy won't let em in the yard )

The sky is falling!!,the sky is falling!!...........Sell sky............

The sky is falling!!,the sky is falling!!...........Sell sky............

6 Pak, re your 20:58, such advanced economic theory as to what creates, sustains, expands, money...is WAY over my head. remember, I'm just a good ole boy! Now down at my basic level, and as a fairly good poker player ( took home well into 4 figures last Sat night @ Garden City card club.. ) , I can only say that anything monetary is simply symbolic.

Whether it's my "chips" at the poker table, the "paper" I cashed em in for, the Platinum Proofs I bought last month, or the stocks I sold. As far as I'm concerned, whatever trades for a loaf of bread constitutes money. If the Govt. inflates it so it takes a wheelbarrow full of papaer to buy that bread, the prudent will see that problem coming and buy gold. If that paper is stable and growing much faster in Equities relative to metal ( or any other inert material ) , the prudent will be in the "paper".

It's all relative in the "money" game. ( And this, from a most decidedly NON Existentialist who believes in absolutes!! ) . Neither gold or paper can be considered "safe" or "good" investments. It all depends on the current economic conditions, as to which one we should hold. That's my simplistic philosophy, and it's served me well since I adopted it ( about 15 years ago ) . Before that I was a diehard GoldBug and paid a hefty price. I shant repeat that folly with PM's , OR with paper ( or with Tulips, Beanie Baby's, or Heating Oil Futures, for that matter!! )

Money is nothing more than what a willing buyer will give a willing seller for a commonly avaialable product in a free marketplace. Whatever works most effeciently to make the transaction happen, is what makes it money. Doesn't matter to me whether it's dried green peas, Silver coins, or Federal reserve notes. As long as I understand how many there are to go around relative to our population, the inventory of the goods we want, what we can trade it for in China, etc......

As to relative values, Gold will shine again, and paper will fall, I have no doubt. Time's not right yet though. Too much is rosy and swell in this, the strongest economy in the world, in the midst of the longest healthy Bull / growth cycle in history. ( Sorry to all non US citizens for my UScentric statements ) .

Those who bet against our economy the past 15 years are the ones with heads in the sand in my view. Narrow monolithic viewpoints re gold and paper, reside more with the GoldBugs and DieHard Wall St. boosters, than with middle of the roaders like Moi. I plan to adapt to changing conditions, and never put my head in the sand. Unfortunately, many folks ( who shall remain nameless ) seem to spennd a lifetime singing only one song...which only becomes popular for a while during each generation. ( "She loves you yaah yahh yahh...." )

All KITCOITES should remember the old Wall Street adage -- don't fight the tape. The tape will tell when the gold stocks are ready to move. We need high volume rallies, higher highs and higher lows, and the ability to persistently ignore bad news such as dollar strength and actual or rumored central bank sales.

Constructing elaborate theories of why gold will or will not move is basically useless. The market is the master of us all. When the gold complex is ready to move those who follow it closely will recognize the turn.

HM volume picked up a lot today as the stock moved down modestly. Still looks like a selling climax building in the gold stocks. ASA volume also was heavy. With stock market starting to topple again as gold stock volume picks up, looks like a major reversal is not far off. .

Puetz, re your 22:12, I don't necessarily disagree with your odds on Purdue beating Notre Dame, however, if what you postulate for that game is true, I would also note that those odds are better than a market crash by Oct.31!! ( I'm Still willing to take that 2:1 bet against a crash Puetzky!! )

The famous Russian author Fyodor Dostoevsky astutely observed: "Money is coined liberty" --

Based on historical precedent the House Of Rothschild is buying gold hand over fist! One must only recall history to appreciate the current situation and this once in a lifetime opportunity. See extensive analysis review of what the the Richest Family in the world is investing in now. Between 1929 and 1935, the share price of Homestake Mining, one of the oldest gold mining firms in the U.S., soared over 500%:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta909.html

Stand up and take those insults like a man Janet!! ( UmmmUhhh no I didn't mean anything by....Oww! Whap! Ack! No I wasn't referring to a geneder..argghhhh... )

I would mention, that far from a 500% increase, my "Homestake" shares got KILLED in the crash of 1987. Great article, but doesn't necessarily bear great relevance in today's climate. In the 20th century we had an industrial revolution, a computer revolution, a transportation revolution, etc. etc. Similar, though less impressive advcances have taken place in controlling economic conditions. We are not necessarily doomed to a melt down based on the FED controls and the bubbling brew of the M3 & Equities market.

Made it to Thursday.....Hang Seng down 409 ( 2.76% ) ....Nikkei down 346 ( 1.85% ) ...Indonesia down 19.76 ( 3.44% ) and KLSE down 27.34 ( 3.17% ) ...and dec. gold ( true to form ) is down .30 @ 323.80 ...I'm BURNT..."nite all"..
Jin: looks like we were right that the Asian equity rebound wouldn't last looong....

TED,
good evening!
troble seem arised more and more now!
"SAWATDEEKARP ( thailand ) " seem unstable in politic,very big influnced in south east asia.malaysia,looked weak too.not to mentioned the indonesia rupiah and philipine peso!personally think,the most hot topic seem focus on "KOREA"NOW!THE SPECTCULATOS WAITING FOR THE BIG BITE.....KOREA ISHOULD BE THE TARGET!BOUGHT MORE PHYSICAL AT 321.20....GAINED ABITS TODAY FROM CURRENCY EXCHANGE....GOOD!

George S.C.--Re: Your recent thought that a reversal in gold stocks may not be far off: What do you consider not far off? a ) the next several days? b ) by year's end? c ) by the end of the millinium?

Puetz, re your 21:55 giving yet more eclipse, full moon data, just how would these facts hold up compared to random chance and including ALL market, paper and comoddity crashes of ALL types over ALL that same time span? That's what we need for meaningful analysis. Now then, a health tip for you. Be advised that it has been determined with absolute accuracy, that the common carrot causes death in humans. Yep, that's right, every single human who has ingested carrots in their lifetime, has either a ) died, or b ) will die in the future. Conclusion, carrots cause death!!

Explorer: Thanks for the info. You're right about Amax's mill,etc. Amax is also in a JV with Teryl Resources ( TRC V ) on a property adjoining Amax's mill. A news release today said they have values in the .03-.04 range. Some of the numbers from the drill holes are: depth 230 ft, interval 1-65 feet, length 65 ft, opt .03; depth 420 ft, interval 125-175 ft, length 50 ft, opt .04. Could you explain what depth, interval, and length mean in this context? I know this is not much info but do you think it would it be profitable to haul this material to Amax's mill?

The xau remains long term bullish; and, while it remains short term bearish, a short term bottom may have formed. The dollar is long term bearish with increasing signs of bearishness developing over the last day or two. The major market averages have turned from short term bearish and long term bullish to both long and short term bearish. Gold, although both long and short term bearish, may have formed both a short and long term bottom over the last several days.

Thanks for the reply. Then it is a given, that gullibility is the glue,
that keeps the USofA dollar, the strongest currency in the world.

Vanity and vexation eh! take care.