Talking head on CNBC..*We expect gold to test 315...we also expect range tops of 330 in 1997, 340 in 1998, 350 in 1999. When asked about Asian and
Far East currency problems and their CB attitude on gold he said *75 percent of the world CB gold is held by Europe and the US*

LGB..as a Limerous ( ? ) , I didn't think much of your 20:14 Limerick ( a nonsensical verse ) ..Rather read Puetz or Ted's weather report..
signed.. Maya Angelou ( as known by you )
Others.. While waiting for PM's to move, was thinking about investing in Coffee, but cannot figure how long it will last in the can.. Tks

Mr Puetz or other knowledgable posters: What puts ( stox ) could you reccommend at this time that could be bought for around $500.00? What return would they generate if dow dropped 1000 pts?, 2000 pts? What should I ask the broker for ( symbols ) ?

SKYLARK....appreciate your suggestion but I am internet novice. What is SI BGO thread? Thanks for your patience.

The human mind is a wondrous vessel. Perhaps nowhere else in the universe will be found sentient creatures with such a fondness for patterns. We love 'em, we search for them, or we simply stumble upon a familiar shape that owes its debt of attention to a happenstance arrangement of atoms rather than a relative of that little wiener dog you had when you were six. Who amongst us did not while away some of those long summer afternoons of our youth counting lions, or pigs, or maybe little bunnies in the clouds? I find it almost impossible to rest my gaze on a rock cliff without finding a number of faces within. Ancients found the stuff of gods and legends in the stars above, different cultures viewing the same stars; one would see a dipper, another a bear, in the very same stars and both would be right!

These patterns are our own constructs and exist only within our minds, they enjoy zero relationship with the "real" world. Here, I am defining the "real" world as that empirical one, in which unheard falling trees do make noise, stopped clocks are correct exactly twice a day, and bears most defiantly crap in the woods. In fact, almost any star pattern, viewed from even a slightly different perspective, say. Pluto, would have a drastically altered appearance.

We might see a bright star with a dimmer brother at its side. From our experiences in the "real" world, we would tend to think the brighter star is our closer companion. This bright star could be thousands of light years away, with a mass a thousand times the sun, while the feeble shinings of the dimmer star is but a smaller sun than our own but just a dozen light years away, just down the block. A simple accident of distribution put the distant star in the same line of sight with the closer star. All association between the two is entirely our invention; that stubborn need, and almost magical tendency, to search for something we recognize in all the chaos before us.

I am daily surrounded by other metals brokers spending a great deal of time trying to make sense of price movements. To assist this task, a mountain of data, a plethora of charts, and a multitude of lines, squiggles, hash marks, circles, squares, triangles, and assorted other polygons with names like bull flag, descending triangle, bearish engulfing pattern, harami, doji, and a new method developed by a colleague called the GLU indicator that he swears is from his lips to Gods ears.

These pursuits and ceremonies spark in me a kind of atavistic dj vu in which I picture our ancestors dancing around the fire, building speed and courage for the hunt. They would offer gifts to the Gods and plead for sharper eyes and swifter feet and, should this hunt prove rewarding, will gorge on the plenty until overwhelmed with crapulence, fall into uneasy sleep only to awake on the morrow, with fitful pleas to the same Gods to smite this headache.

I find these thoughts going through my head as I watch my fellow brokers and read through these pages. We spend enormous amounts of time and energy and will and spirit with all these machinations in a hopeful attempt to be marginally better than the toss of a coin. In major league baseball, if you fail 80% of your time at bat, you'd better be able to throw, or catch, or some damn other thing besides hit, but if you fail 70% at bat you are a hero with your own brand of running shoes.

The numbers work a bit differently in the money game. One may be wrong more than one is right, provided his hits are big and his misses aren't too dear,* but one would find it far more profitable to best the coin toss by a significant percentage. To this end are we gathered here at all. To this goal, we sift these pages for that key piece of information, that extra encouragement, that wise warning, and that timely action that will make our trades soar. In this respect we are all hungry.

A lot of bombast, this, to bring the point of the matter; I sometimes turn to these pages an find great portends in the phases of the moon and as to whether or not the markets will crash should our cheesy neighbor fall in the shadow of our home. Lets think about a lunar eclipse for a moment. When we perceive an eclipse, the Earth lies between Luna and Sol, we view the shadow in awe. This is a once, maybe twice in a lifetime experience for most of humanity, but it happens all the time. Any given year is lousy with Lunar eclipses. That little bugger is always slipping behind us for a quick ride through our umbra. It just so happens, most of these eclipses are fully visible only from the ocean, or vast areas of uninhabited land.

When we are treated to an eclipse, we are not alone. All the rest who line along the ecliptic will see the totality, or significant partiality, as the rotation of the earth and the orbit of the moon bring the event into new time zones. Which of these eclipses is going to cause the crash? Viewed from where? New York? Los Angeles? Buenos Aries? London? Qatar? Does a viewer have to see the entire eclipse or just a partial? What if her twin sister was in Saskatchewan and missed it? are their symbiotic clocks now out of sync? ( A silly question, that ) . If they see the eclipse in New York, will stocks go down in Tokyo? And just why would a single event, that in astronomical terms is happening constantly, create a market collapse in the first place? This Lunar strategy is like the rustling of leaves, in which a single leaf knocks down your house. Are there people who actually buy into this? If so, I predict their investment history will roughly match the flip of a coin..


{*My first Kitco footnote.. I know there are many readers of this forum who are women, many more than one would guess as they seem to prefer to stay in the background while the rest of us flex our egos. Apart from the occasional gratuitous buxom lass thrown into my more whimsical meanderings, strictly for spice sake mind you, I try to be inclusive in my language. When the crunch comes and, in order to be clear, one must sometimes choose a pronoun gender. When I write "His hits" and, "his misses", I kind of cringe at my proclivity to automatically use the masculine gender and, used once, sure to be used again in the spirit of continuity. So what the hell, I'll try to mix the genders a bit more, but not in the same sentence. After all, this is a family page.}


( .. Michoacan Bud Boy .. )
The little thingies over dj were produced by the same method. Extra work, but good effect.

please see question at 00:52

bw re 9/10 @ 13:32 Global Markets - What happens in the meantime if, say Dell drops 25 points during the day in the U.S., and that night some foreign market trades Dell. Are there different circuit breakers that will prevent it from dropping an additional 50 points, foreign or domestic? And what then would happen the next day in the U.S.? The way it looks, the cb's ( circuit breakers! ) will only work during the daytime here in the U.S., but with this global village that we all trade in now, what good can they really do? Potentially, a stock could literally melt down in a matter of a few days, even with the cb's.

Anybody like to expand on this scenario, or am I heading in the wrong direction...

http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/indicators.html?source=DBCC

It would be a Royal Flush!!!

You might try puts on GOLD mining stocks Mr. Pathetic. they've been making a fortune for PUT investors for years now!! ( Almost ready to by SSC, yours truly, the "Bug" )

Secretary Rubin is at it again
IMF TO SELL MORE GOLD
WHO IS BUYING? GOLDMAN SACHS
AND PARTNERS The ROCKEFELLERS
The Vortex Volatility Chart Library
Tuesday September 9 6:50 PM EDT

IMF seeks alternative to gold sales to fund loans

WASHINGTON, Sept 9 ( Reuter ) - The IMF wants bilateral contributions to fund
packages of loans and debt relief for the world's poorest states, but may reopen
the debate on sales of gold next year if money is not available, an official said.

IMF First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer told a news conference
about the fund's annual report, released on Tuesday, that there had been a
positive response to the request for bilateral funding, although hardly an
enthusiastic one.

``We are still in the process of seeing how much we can get in bilateral
contributions,'' he said. ``If that process does not produce enough, then next
year we may have to reinvestigate the issue of gold sales.''

He said the IMF would also examine if it could use internal methods to fund the
two programs, the Highly Indebted Poor Countries' Initiative and the Enhanced
Structural Adjustment Facility.

The debate on gold sales was a contentious one at previous meetings of the
World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Some countries view sales as a
relatively painless way to boost IMF resources but others say it could be
inflationary.

The organizations start their next annual meetings in Hong Kong next week.

The annual report, a review of IMF business in the year to April 30, said most
IMF states had appeared ready to approve a proposal from Managing Director
Michel Camdessus to sell up to five million ounces of gold from reserves when
the issue came up a year ago.

But some countries had opposed the plan.

The report said there had been no need to make a decision at that time.

It said directors agreed that the IMF had to be ready to ``make optimal use of its
reserves'' to secure full financing for two of the intitiatives for the poor countries.

``In September 1996 the chairman said it was his understanding that there was
the needed majority of members of the board who considered that such
optimization of reserves could entail sales of an amount of the fund's gold of up
to five million ounces, although he noted that a few members objected to this,''
the report said.

KESTAS: SI stands for silicon investor and it is a chat site for stocks. One needs to register to access the site, but it is free, try this path - you may be able to access it w/o registration. Go to the Bema Gold thread. http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/StockTalk-17. No one is going to be able to tell you what you should do with your stock though, as it is your decision. But there are a good number of posters on this site dealing specifically with BGO so it should help. If you have any trouble accessing the site let me know, but I will not return until the market opens tomorrow. Good luck.

6pak, re your 23:51, if gullibility is the glue that fuels the U.S. dollar, than it was also the glue that has given value to all monetary instruments, including gold, for centuries. Nothing "magical" about a metal, ( though I do love gold coins... ) . Platinum is far rarer than gold, ( all above ground reserves would fit in a 25 cubic ft square ) , has far higher industrial demand, has many properties such as hardness that make it preferable for jewelry and such, is much tougher to mine, has appreciable CB reserves, no large below ground reserves, only a handful of sources, and yet trades only marginally above gold. Why? Because human beings have historically decided they like gold better. A Picasso is worth millions only because more people decided it has high worth, than the much better ( IMNTBHO ) , paintings done by some modern Carmel artists. Is A $320,000 ferrari a better car than a $70,000 Acura NSX? Only if you can convince some "gullible" folks that it is..... but as long as you can convince em, the Ferrari will trade higher in the market. ( Give me the NSX any day, may sacrifice slightly in performance, but if you're going to have a performance vehicle, it's nice to have one that RUNS once in awhile! ) If the world turns en masse to the Euro, than you'd better get into Euro's until the trend passes. Be a sheep at the BEGINNING of the trend, and a wolf at the end.

Highrise: Goldman Sachs & Rockefellers buying gold, is this your humble opinion or do you have hard evidence/reliable source?

The end of the game must be drawing near if the Reader's Digest is
telling us "You Can Beat the Market Too" ( Aug. 97 ) . The article
discusses the NAIC investment clubs ( 12000 of them 2 years ago, 27000 now ) . Their goal is a return of 15 percent per year. At least. A quote from one of the club's founders:

"People hesitate to get started in the stock market because they think
it's difficult to learn how the market works. They should understand
that this isn't rocket science."

15%+ a year? Not rocket science? It brings to mind "Everybody Ought to
Be Rich", published in August, 1929 by that other bastion of investment
and finance, The Ladies' Home Journal.

You guys are dynamite. I'm addicted to Kitco! Back to the shadows...

Some of the biggest pushers of gold are the NWO Christian militia
members. : )

Those who argue against conspiracies based on "common sense" have
not investigated the area. Oligopolies behave like conspiracies.
There may be no EXPLICIT agreement, no EXPLICIT sharing of
information or goals. But because each member of an oligopoly
can affect the market, EACH of the OTHER members watch closely
at all actions, and adjust their actions accordingly.


Here, skeptics. Read this, from my COLLEGE TEXT for a SENIOR
level business management class:

"Similarly, successful strategic managers often hesitate to commit
themselves publicly to detailed strategic plans, since in all
probability the emergence of unexpected contingencies will require
adaptation. Thus a successful strategic manager might commit the
organization to diversification without stating precisely how or
when this will be achieved. It is also important to note that
successful strategic managers often have precise PRIVATE objectives
that they would like to see the organization pursue...

The fifth skill that Wrapp claims successful strategic managers
possess is the ability to push through programs in a piecemeal
fashion... The successful strategic manager tries to push through
his or her ideas in a piecemeal fashion, so that they appear as
incidentals to other ideas, though in fact they are part of a
larger program or HIDDEN AGENDA that moves the organization in
the direction of the manager's objectives".

LGB believes a "media bias", but no conspiracy about Waco.

So, lurkers. Is LGB's "reasoning" based upon "examination of
the evidence", re: _Waco: Rules of Engagement_? Has LGB actually
EXAMINED the opposition's claim?

Of course not. He has no need to, becuase he already "knows"
it can't be true. : ) What a bust-up. LGB sounds JUST like me,
pre-1993. : )

I realize that is it ALL of us who benefit by LGB's participation.

We have our own model of prototypical market behavior to test
against, and watch. It's like having our own real-time model
of the NYSE market here. : ) A "weathervane" to the "average
investor". A concurrent indicator for the country bumpkins
around the world.

The mere fact that LGB has bailed is an ominous sign. Perhaps
a crash IS upon us. : )

LurkingGoldBug- Think carefully before you answer. You have
stated that it would take a "major crisis" to move gold up.

Do you consider the '92 presidential election to have been a
"major crisis"? : )

Good evening Kitco. Nekkei down 423, or 2.3%. Hang Seng down 413, or 2.8%. I don't have figures on other Asian markets. Re ugly stick--Correction: Hit by the whole damn TREE, not just the stick!

Nekkei=Nikkei

For those such as EB, Jack, and LGB, whose minds are unable to
deal with a new paradigm. Go SEE the _Waco: Rules of Engagement_
movie with your OWN eyes.

EB - Waco has NOTHING to do with who wronged me. You are making
decisions based upon an information system that no longer functions
correctly. You, and Jack, and EB, are trusting information, and
a system, that is PROVEN to be flawed now. Deal with it in a rational
matter. Examine FACTS.

Greenspan IS keeping the system going. He has been for at least
the past seven years. He even TOLD you so last weekend, if you
listened.

that I amd my wife first purchased gold about five to six trading
weeks after seeing the Waco FLIR video in June of 94. That's
about three days after the lunar eclipse by the Puetz calendar. ; )

RJ: Enjoyed your mini-essay a lot. However, I have one small correction to offer. One would have to go a LOT farther out in space than Pluto to observe a noticable change in the way stars appear. Our entire solar system and quite a ways beyond are still only a tiny point when compared to the vast distance between us and even our nearest stellar neighbor. Otherwise, your point is entirely correct.

Your post also reminded me of a joke that has been rattling around in my head for a week or so - ever since it was told to me by a woman. I hesitated to post it becuse I thought some women might be offended, but my wife and every woman I've told it to has loved it ( more even than the men ) - so perhaps they recognize a kernel of truth in it. Here goes:

You mentioned the famous Buddhist Koan, "If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, does it still make a sound?" Here is a variant - "If a man speaks in the forest and no woman is there to hear him, is he still wrong?"

LGB good to see you back, and thanks for the warning, which, typical for Robbie the Robot arrived too late and was just a tad off-track :- ) ) )

The Kitco community always seems to respond well to reason and humour. I've noticed that acerbity often provokes hostility. It is good to see you back.


aurator

Who Cares: Do not count too much on LGB's proper interpretation on Clinton. He has learnt everything he needs to know about Clinton from this fabulous documentary "Air Force One," where Harrison Ford portrays the US President as a superman, ex-Vietnam commando, who single-handeldly defeats a bunch of pesky Russian terrorists.

I beg all of you goldbugs, do not let LGB and other kids learn such nonsense. Let us set the history straight. Sell a couple of gold coins and help me in my epic undertaking.

"AIR FARCE ONE", the motion picture.

Rodney Dangerfield as Bubba
Lorena Bobbit as the First Lady
Diva as the Attorney General
Timothy McVeigh as the soldier sent to save Bubba

Opening Scene:
Air Force One: Hum of jet engines is slowly replaced by irregular snorting sound. It is big, it is ugly, it is stupid looking. It is a blob of flesh that appears to have been human at one time. It has glass piles sticking out of its nose. It is Bubba snorting dope.

Scene Two:
Bubba calls Yeltsin to find out if Boris delivered on is promise to round up a Hundred Hula-Hula girls for Bubba to have...

Scene Three:
Hilary comes out of a closet with Jannet Reno and a big frying pen. They smack Bubba on the head with the frying pan, and when he wakes up, they make him force Boris to release the Hula-Hula girls so they can join Hillary and Jannet in forming of the new nation of Lezbiestan.

In the end, Bubba somehow manages to defeat the forces of Lezbiestan and he sends an army of paratroopers to find his missing organ.

The end.

BTW: If anyone is interested. The answer to the Buddhist Koan is NO. If a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it it makes no sound. Sound is the result of air molecules being pushed in some direction away from the source. Our ears are mechanical devices that capture and amplify those molecular movenents which are then decoded and ordered by our brain. This is why, for instance, in a vacuum such as space there would be no sound to an explosion. No air molecules to vibrate and serve as a medium to transmit the sound to our brains. Wouldn't it be weird to see a Star War's movie in which all the exploding starships blew up in complete silence? The bottom line, no ears to hear with = no sound. Only moving molecules. So much for "reality" eh?

It's amazing but typical to see the same mindset here that keeps
the market going. : ) Greenspan has all but SHOUTED out that
he's been keeping the system propped up. It's just amazing to
watch.

It is beyond my imagination. What do you need, an engraved
invitation to New York Federal Reserve Bank?

Forget it, Puetz. The market won't crack as long as Greenspan
& Party can keep America in state of suspended disbelief. : )

Our ancestors will NEVER live this down.

Hey! Whoa! Wait a minute! I will apologize NOW! I will not and should not have gotten in the middle of conspiracy arguments and discussions of new paradigms or pack-o-dimes or blind-ass-mimes or change-o-times or WHATEVER. As you have stated this is BEYOND my 'pea-brain' understanding of "how the world turns".

And my comments about whoever wronged you had NOTHING to do with WACO, it was merely an observation about your posts of late...period. You are getting darker and scarier...SPOOKY! WEIRD! and congratulations on the gold purchase, I'm glad I could help?????????

SORRY
AWAY
EB

I meant Pluton Seti 3 - a star way far away a lot. Its out there, thataway..Funny thing though, PS3 also has a planet named Uranus orbiting. Makes you think this is a far more interesting universe than one may at first guess.

Darker and scarier? I don't think so. I'll admit, having
Greenspan ADMIT what I already suspected was surprising.

But. I have learned over the past two years that the American
public is brainwashed beyond anything I could have imagined. Most
of the time I don't care now. It's not my problem.

I know people. I know that despite ANYTHING I say or do, such
as yourself and Jack would never believe that our government could
have deliberately murdered 80 people, and then covered it up. Even
if there were photographic evidence that proved it.

I've already kind of accepted this. I rarely mention it anymore.

Sorry, I just get tired of people that "pontificate" and "prove"
that such could not be true, when I've already seen it directly.

Of course, a government that could murder, and then manipulate the
media in such a way could probably also fake money growth numbers,
inflation numbers, deficit numbers, foreign purchases of bonds, etc.


It's not my problem anymore.

Strad Master--In "2001: A Space Odessey", remember the scenes in space where there is absolute silence? The silence was deafening. Arthur C. Clarke had it together as far as realism in outer space in that movie! HAL is still one of my all time favorites!

Odessey=Odyssey

Does anyone know who said,
"The universe is not only stranger than we imagine,it is stranger than we CAN POSSIBLY imagine." ?
Could it have been Einstein?

STEVE PUETZ: Your post at 21:55 shows the great pains you take in your work. Congratulations. You noted that shoe polish will rise in price during what will generally be a deflation. Here are some other items which rise in price during deflationary depressions, counter to the trend. Pencils, tin cups ( for holding pencils ) , dark glasses ( for faking blindness ) , apples, apple polish.

I have always marveled at the power of the tides and some time ago I took a photograph of a beach at low tide that is rather spectacular. I have it hanging on my wall in my office. I wrote a poem that speaks to the power of the moon, here it is:

I am the Moon, your Earth is in my grip
Your oceans are mine to play
each day I make them tip.
You brought your noisy toys here,
stomped boot prints in my dust,
and with your stars and stripes
you pierced my ancient crust.

Now listen up you Earthlings
to what I have to say.
I can split volcanos and send lava flows your way.
Or shake your buildings down and start tsunamis too.
Is that what you want me to do?

Just for now, to flaunt the power of my reach,
I'm going to plant MY stripes, right on YOUR pretty beach.
So let that be your lesson
Make sure you get it right.
Or I might "forget" to block your next big meteorite!

EDEN--JBS Haldane, a Briish scientist admired and frequenty quoted by Clarke, is the author of that quote.

Book published for investors dealing with Year 2000 problem.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/97/09/10/y0004_y00_6.html

Japan's 2nd-Qtr GDP Shrank 2.9%, Worse Than Expected

Japan's economy contracted 2.9 percent in the April-June quarter from the previous three-month
period, its worst performance in almost a quarter-century, the government said. The
worse-than-expected number prompted the Economic Planning Agency to cast doubt on whether
the economy can meet the government's target of 1.9 percent growth in the fiscal year ending next
March. Gross domestic product plunged 11.2 percent at an annualized rate, as consumer spending
slowed after the government raised the national sales tax in April to 5 percent, from 3 percent.

Dainong Break-Up to Be Overseen by Korean Court

The Dainong Group, a textile-maker reeling from $1.5 billion of debts, will be dissolved by a Seoul
court in what could be a test case for Korea's growing roster of bankrupt companies. The group's
application for court receivership today followed a demand by its creditors, led by SeoulBank,
seeking resolution. The court and creditors will oversee the sale of all the group's businesses except
its Midopa Co. department store unit. Management would get a chance to turn round the high-end
retailer, whose debts are now frozen by creditors. ( 2659 KS CN )

EDEN--JBS Haldane was into Genetics. He was also known as a scientist who made science understandable to the layman. Here is a brief excerpt of his bio-- http://pup.princeton.edu/titles/4618.html

THE VISE TIGHTENS ON
SOUTH KOREA ( int'l edition )

While all eyes have been on Southeast Asia, the crisis in South Korea continues.
Korea's foreign debt towers 3.5 times above its foreign reserves--worse than
even Thailand's situation. Five conglomerates have failed or slipped into
bankruptcy protection this year, the won has tumbled, and the economy is still far
from hitting bottom, many believe.

The conglomerates, or chaebol, are increasingly vulnerable for a variety of
reasons, from rising labor costs and strategic blunders to the cheaper yen, which
has given rival Japan an edge in exports. The eighth-largest chaebol, Kia Group,
may finally succumb to bankruptcy in September when a two-month grace on
debt rescheduling expires. Other chaebol, including Ssangyong, Hanwha, and
Haitai, are under strain as their cash flows worsen.

The virus has spread to banks, which are owed $13 billion by bankrupt or failing
chaebol, equivalent to 60% of their combined capital. Ten of 25 Korean
commercial banks posted losses in the first six months of this year, led by a
stunning $395 million loss at Korea First Bank, which has borne the brunt of
chaebol failures.

Financial turmoil has rocked the Korean won, which dropped to a record low of
910 to the dollar in late August before the central bank battled it back to 900 on
Sept. 3. To defend the won, Bank of Korea has had to dig into its foreign
reserves to the tune of $3 billion. The won's decline, down 8% this year, is hitting
profits as Korean companies rack up billions of dollars in currency losses.
Hyundai's car and electronics units lost $180 million in the first half. ''Things don't
look very good,'' concedes Hyundai economist Chun Il Young.

Seoul is producing reform packages and rescue plans in volumes never seen
before. But so far, nothing is working. It has pleaded with foreign lenders to keep
money flowing and has backed the pleas with state payment guarantees. If cash
dries up, Korea may be forced to devalue the won and risk a financial meltdown.

Of course, its financial markets remain heavily protected from outside forces, and
Korea has a tremendous industrial base. Still, the sense of crisis is palpable as
Korea, like its neighbors, faces Asia's new economic rules.

Donald @ 00:57--That's "Paradigm Shift" type news!

AURIC: Their Paradigm "shift" hit the fan in 1990 and it's still getting all over them, 7 years later.

AURIC: Your 05:59 post was very helpful. Many thanks.

Self explanatory charts showing credit card problems.
http://www.businessweek.com:80/1997/37/b3544128.htm

If you've been thinking about the big downbump 10 years ago, Tony Evans
has two interesting charts:

http://home.sprynet.com/sprynet/fiendbea/guestcha.htm

Donald--Meant to refer to 05:57, NOT 00:57, post about Japan sliding deeper into recession. That ought to be good for a shift, paradigmatical or otherwise!

Leland -- But EVERYONE knows that 'this time is different'! We will certainly be finding out pretty shortly!

RJ While I enjoyed your essay on the stars and agree that we seek to make patterns out of the seeming chaos around us I must point out an area in which you are misinformed.
"A simple accident of distribution put the distant star in the same line of sight with the closer star. All association between the two is entirely our invention; that stubborn need, and almost magical tendency, to search for something we recognize in all the chaos before us."
More to my point is the section of your post that referred to constellations being called by different names by different cultures.
While I do not doubt our tendency magical, nevertheless you have stumbled across something which does indeed defy reason, namely the consistency of names in the constellations among different cultures, many so separated they had NO communications in the ancient worlds. The following excerpt is not from an astrologer but from an expert in ancient languages, ( EW Bullinger 1837-1913, language scholar, author ) in his book The Witness of the Stars:
"If we turn to history and tradition, we are at once met with the fact that the Twelve Signs are the same, both as to meaning of their names and as to their order *in all the ancient nations of the world*. The Chinese, Chaldean, and Egyptian records go back to more than 2,000 years B.C. Indeed, the Zodiacs in the Temples of Denderah and Esnth, in Egypt, are doubtless copies of Zodiacs still more ancient, which, from internal evidence, must be placed nearly 4,000 B.C.,..."
There is much more evidence than this presented as to the uniformity of the signs ( itself remarkable for anyone who remembers tryingto pick out the twelve constellations! ) their names and many of the minor signs. Where there are different names almost always they came from a more ancient name which WAS the same. This is both remarkable and troubling to those who accept modern science only and deny that which may exceed their senses and sense. I am not an astrologer but I cannot deny the witness of the stars. There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio..

Puetz. Thank you for your response --- a plethora of data indeed. And I would have had more inclination to study it thoroughly had:

( a ) the first two data points been more hopeful to your cause, viz.

*NEAR A FULL-MOON ( 6 weeks before a solar eclipse ) :
1 ) Panic of 1873 -- From 487.00 on 9-2-1873, stocks fell to 351.25 on 9-20-1873. Full moon was on 9-6-1873, 4 days after the panic began. *

In fact the solar eclipse was on November 20. Unsixweekski, I have previously pointed this out.

and

*NEAR A FULL-MOON ( 2 weeks before a solar eclipse ) :
1 ) Crash of 1929: From 352.86 on 10-10-1929, the DJIA collapsed to 198.69 on 11-13-1929. The full-moon came 8 days after the decline started ( although, virtually all of the crash came after the full-moon ) .*

Um, well we are finagling again, and I just wont stand for it :- ) )
That last nonsensentence. Is it important that the full moon was eight days after, decline started I mean what if it was 7 or 9, hey, I mean a full moon happens every lunar month, right? There are days each side of that, so what. What is the significance of this number. Do you not just mean that a crash happened while the moon waxed and waned?


( b ) But worse than finagling, you shifted the goal posts from your previous post which was

*When a lunar eclipse does not mark the start of a crash, a full-moon within 6 weeks of a solar eclipse has.*

I liked the assertion you used in your original post better, just a tad less vague, and, you know, helpful. But to move the goalposts here is just too exasperating. I am sure you did not intend to, the first post was made perhaps with less caution than your usual research much of which I have come to respect, but they moved, i saw em.

And that is one more reason, Mr Puetz, why I will not respond further with this chimeric folly.

( c ) The most cogent reason though, for me not continuing is that the pursuit itself is unreasonable.

You see, my third post is really the key to my reluctance to continue. It is not reasonable to continue. It is not statistically prudent to mine this data according to my limited knowledge of stats. But if any lurking STATISTICIANS would care to do there stuff I would appreciate a ripping apart of my Wed Sep 10 1997 01:43.
Why count one eclipse and not another. So many eclipses, so few crashes. What am I missing? Why the Damned? Answer me that one and I will look again.

Thank you, and I hope I can pick up the challenge again, now I am off to follow Skylarks's suggestion and look at the future of gold....

this popular bearishness is just what I like

Roebear -- Funny how truth is often stranger than any fictions we can think up!

It looks like gold is treading water but not very boyant. Weather in Albuquerque, perfect, cool, small breeze, state fair weather, getting ready for ot air balloon fiesta. Ted, are you up? Did you get the postcard? Heres the joke of the morn:

Two old Irishmen were holding up the bar at the local pub,
reminiscing and drinking as they were wont to do, when one
became quite melancholy and asked his friend, "Sean, when
my time comes and I pass on, can ye do me a favour?"

His friend replies, "Liam, you've been my friend for nigh on
thirty years...just ask and I'll do it for you. What would you like
me to do?"

The first one said, "Sean, on me mantelpiece at home is an
old, old bottle of fine Irish whiskey. When they bury me, would
you be mindin' it if ye poured it over me grave?"

And the second one gravely replies, "Liam, you know I'll be
honored to do as you ask, but I'm wonderin', would you mind
if I passed it through me kidneys first?"

"A great industrial Nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system is concentrated. The growth of the nation and all of our activities are in the hands of afew men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most conpletely controlled and dominated Governments in the world--no longer a Government of free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of small groups of dominant men."
( Just before he died, Wilson is reported to have stated to friends that he had been "deceived" and that "I have betrayed my Country." He referred to the Federal Reserved Act passed during his Presidency. )

Donald--The GDP numbers you sited for Japan, negative 2.9% for April-June, does not even take into account the collapse in SE Asia. Seems like that can only get worse. This looks like a downward spiral with ever tightening curves.

The news this morning is that Al Sharpton owes 100k in back taxes.
Time to play the the race card Al! Demand your 40 acres and a mule with interest ( plus late payment penalties ) !

Auric -- Haldane, Clark, Fort, we are in fine company indeed

Roebear--- I detect thin ice. 19thcentury linguistics was based upon very different ideas of language and history than the modern study. My knowledge is that Pacific, Melanesian and Australian constellations are, as one would expect utterly different from *us* occidentals, I believe that the Chinese constellations too are different. I recall that Antares in scorpio is named the heart of the dragon, but that the dragon and scorpio are not identical. Heh, it is astronomy, not astrology you are talking, thankfully. astronomy is a science astrology is not.
There, i've said it.

Kicking sacred cows and going to bed, after a wee dram o' glayva, I'll toast you for your jokes Tort.

To All
The one -year lease rate is around 2.8%. I believe
that this is the highest it has been all year. The one
month rate has also been rising.
My problem is that I dont have any firm idea what
this means regarding the direction of the gold price.
I would assume that mechanically it means that it
is more costly for mines to sell gold forward as well
as more costly to sell gold short. In other words, it
could be a signal that the gold market is getting
tighter and the price should rise.
Having said that, I have been wrong so many times
in anticipating a rise in the gold price that I am
getting a complex. Has anybody looked at this ?

It may be different, but it still rhymes. Interesting times don't you
think?

Roebear Antares is be eye of the dragon, the heart of scorpio, just remembered, it's 23:40 local. out.

The recent infatuation by many Kitcoites with the Moon has been fascinating. This important celestial feature has been taken the gamut between statistical, linear-thinking exploitation and reverent tribute ( Donald, your poem was genuinely respectful ) . I would wish only to point out that the field of consideration becomes staggering when one realizes that there are at least 9 OTHER bodies in our solar system whose effects upon human activities we can count on. As a humble eye-opener to that fact, and since this investigation, after my own fashion, is an important part of my own work, on Friday, Sept 5, prior to the stock markets open, I did something I have not done until then on Kitco. I gave a public call on an individual stock, MGI Pharmaceuticals ( MOGN ) . I also emailed certain Kitcoites whose own work is sympathetic to my views. This call was based on the approaching conjunction of transiting Mars with the company's natal horoscope Sun/Uranus conjunction. This lineup will reach maximum ASTROLOGICAL intensity on the 16th and 17th of September. Anyone wishing to see the progress of this issue, and this dynamic, short-term conjunction approach, may click onto a chart of MOGN and marvel at the price action of the handful of days since my post. Especially dynamic in a generall down market. My point is not that I'm a particularly good astrologer. My point is simply that there is much to be known, and HARNESSED about the universe and the patterns and laws of cause and effect around us. Sometimes demonstrations that break the limits of "linear" and acculturated thought allow one to hear the trees that AREN'T falling in the forest...YET. Kitcoites are invited to follow the progress of MOGN through the 16th and 17th, and comments are always appreciated. As I know there will be some.

PS - Those using DBC for a chart of MOGN might find that yesterday's price action has not yet been displayed. The stock was at 4 1/2.

Destiny?
double post 7:41. Mike spooky after my previous.
does this mean that astrology should be my next sacred cow? Is it in the stars Mike? I get bored so easily and am never happier than during the long walk back, before the running kick at that darn fresian's arse.

Gold complex acting so badly that a bottom might be made within the next few weeks if downside volume intensifies. Bullion unchanged this morning despite stock market turmoil and soft dollar. Truly terrible action! Joberg off 1.6% as downward pressure on gold stocks intensifies. XAU could well test its early July low around 85 within the next few days.

We need a truly massive selling climax to turn things around. Looks like we may get it.

Gold complex acting so badly that a bottom might be made within the next few weeks if downside volume intensifies. Bullion unchanged this morning despite stock market turmoil and soft dollar. Truly terrible action! Joberg off 1.6% as downward pressure on gold stocks intensifies. XAU could well test its early July low around 85 within the next few days.

We need a truly massive selling climax to turn things around. Looks like we may get it.

John Disney: Gold stocks lead gold. And the gold stocks are acting TERRIBLY.

Japan GDP story, plus Australian dollar plunges below 72c. http://cgi.ino.com/marketcenter/storys/story700.html

This is the excellent foppery of the world: that when we are sick in fortuneoften the surfeits of our own behaviourwe make guilty of our disasters the sun, the moon, and stars, as if we were villains on necessity, fools by heavenly compulsion, knaves, thieves, and treachers by spherical predominance, drunkards, liars, and adulterers by an enforced obedience of planetary influence. . . . An admirable evasion of whoremaster man, to lay his goatish disposition on the charge of a star!
William Shakespeare ( 15641616 ) , English dramatist, poet. Edmond, in King Lear, act 1, sc. 2.


These earthly godfathers of Heavens lights,
That give a name to every fixed star,
Have no more profit of their shining nights
Than those that walk and wot not what they are.
William Shakespeare ( 15641616 ) , English dramatist, poet. Biron, in Loves Labours Lost, act 1, sc. 1.

Mike Sheller I thoroughly enjoy your informative and dignified posts,so please dont be offended by my take on astrology,horoscopes and all things "hocus pocus". To me,astrology is nothing more than empirical data gathered over many centuries of observation. It exploits many people who are afraid of things they don't understand. Just my opinion,once again no offense intended.When you bring it into the financial picture it reminds me of George Bush and his talk of "Voodoo economics"

For George Cole

I agree with what you say. All indicators look like
gold will move lower.
However, I would like to know if anyone has looked at
any correlation betweem the lease rate and gold action.
Is there none ?? All the past slide has been at lease
rates about half what they are now. Also the one year
rate is the highest Ive seen. Does this mean anything ??

Mornin Tort + all Kitcoites! Yeah,I'm UP Tort,just had a few early mornin chores ta do ( had to kick the dog around etc. etc. ) ...Got yer missive thankx!...World equity markets again lookin a little ( ? ) shaky..Hang Seng down 3.36%; Indonesia down 3.28%; Japan down 2.26%; Malaysia down 3.35%; but the Thailand SET UP 1.95% ( weird..eh ) ...Typically,gold is taking advantage of the equity collapse and is trading DOWN .50 @ 323.60....probably all we need is a nuclear war to get over that 330 hump.....S+P futures headin dooooown.....Tort: good joke! reminded me of my drunkin Irish friend Sean....Weather:60 degrees with sun startin ta break out......

JOHN DISNEY: The one month lease generally reflects spec short selling; the one year rate reflects producer selling. From a contarian perspective it usually is bullish when the one month lease rate moves above the 12 month rate. Trouble is the spec shorts have generally been right these past 18 months and contrarian logic has been disastrous.

Long bond down 8 ticks.....S+P futures down .45......Big waves from "Erika" still rollin in...

URIS: I appreciate your enjoyment of my posts. I am not offended by your comments. They are quite typical of those made by intelligent people who do not know anything about astrology, but nevertheless feel qualified to judge it. I submit that you have swallowed the "public line" of what astrology is all about, just as recent moths to the stockmarket flame think "buy on dips" is the only way to go. Beware the shared dream of the society and the civilization. It is your greatest impediment to the perception of reality. Whatever that may be. But did you look at the MOGN stock chart? This is, after all a site about money, bucks, moola, samoleans...forgive me if putting 45% in your lap in 4 trading days is paltry. It's the best this shade-tree astrologer can do. Alas, such misfortune must be written in my stars! ( :- )

More bad news for Japan! S+P futures down 2.25....
Japanese economy and placed Japan in a difficult
position as it faces overseas criticism for failing to
stimulate domestic demand.

In addition to reporting the decline in the GDP for the
April-June quarter from the previous quarter, the
Economic Planning Agency reported Thursday an
annualized pace of contraction of 11.2%.

This was considerably weaker than the 1.4%
quarter-on-quarter fall or 5.6% annualized drop forecast
by private economists.

GDP contracted from the prior quarter for the first time
since April-June 1996 as private consumption fell
sharply after the government hiked Japan's consumption
tax to 5% from 3% previously in April.

GNP measures the output of a country's goods and
services. Real GNP discounts inflation. GDP, by
excluding often volatile net inflows of income from
abroad, gives a more consistent picture of the
economy's underlying trend, analysts say.

The sharp contraction in personal consumption came
after the sales tax hike in April and the termination of 2
trillion yen ( $16.8 billion ) worth of special annual income
tax cuts, which had been in place over the last two
years. Consumption, which comprises about 60% of
GDP, was particularly strong between January and
March as consumers rushed to buy goods before the tax
increases.

But perhaps more worrying was a drop in corporate
capital expenditure, which could undermine prospects
for growth in subsequent quarters. Private sector capital
outlays, which account for roughly 20% of GDP,
decreased for the first time after nine consecutive
quarters of gains.

Government officials have said the slowdown in
consumption during the recent quarter is a reaction to
the tax hikes. They have maintained that consumption
continues to increase gradually.

During the latest quarter, real GDP increased 0.1% from
the year before, following a year-on-year rise of 2.3% in
the January-March period.

Analysts said they don't expect the second quarter GDP
data to prompt the government to take fresh fiscal
stimulus steps soon, but that political debate on a new
stimulus package will undoubtedly heat up both inside
and outside Japan -- particularly given recent U.S.
criticism of Japan's failure to promote domestic
demand-led growth.

"The GDP numbers were very ugly," said Cameron
Umetsu, senior economist at UBS Securities Ltd. "It
makes it difficult for the government to be optimistic"
about growth, he said.

The data pushed up the price of the lead December
futures contract for 10-year Japanese government bonds
in London trading through the key 127.00-mark, but the
gains were sustained only momentarily, partly because of
talk about a fiscal stimulus package, traders said.

The dollar rose about 30 yen to 119.02 on the data, but
retreated soon afterwards. That compares with 119.15
yen in late New York trading Wednesday.

Shimpei Nukaya, administrative vice minister at the
Economic Planning Agency, told reporters, "Although
the recovery has slowed, the overall picture hasn't
changed."

But he acknowledged that it will be difficult to achieve
the official government forecast for GDP growth of
1.9% in the fiscal year ending March 31, 1998. It was
believed to be the first time that a senior government
official had publicly cast doubt on this year's forecast.

"The data will likely increase pressure on the Japanese
government from domestic politicians and from overseas
to implement stimulus measures," said Mamoru
Yamazaki, senior economist at the Tokyo branch of
Paribas.

In the meantime, the Bank of Japan's ultra-easy
monetary policy will stay on hold, analysts said.

Even before the data came out, many analysts believed
there wouldn't be room for the BOJ to raise interest
rates until the first half of the next calendar year at the
earliest, and Thursday's data only reinforced that view,
economists said. There has even been some talk in the
bond market that the BOJ could cut rates, though with
the official discount rate at a record-low 0.5%, there is
virtually no room for further stimulus from monetary
policy.

Another ominous aspect of the GDP data was that
Japan's current-account surplus came to 2.6% of GDP
in the April-June period, while the trade and services
surplus alone was 1.4%. In the prior period, the
current-account surplus was 1.5% of GDP and the trade
and services surplus came to 0.4%.

A 2.5% ratio of current account surplus to GDP is
widely seen as an upper limit for containing trade friction
with the U.S.

"The ratio will definitely raise the issue of Japan's trade
surplus at the G-7 meeting," says Akiyoshi Takumori,
senior economist at Sakura Securities Co.

Top finance officials of the Group of Seven nations are
scheduled to meet in Hong Kong late next week,
providing a convenient forum for other countries to
express concern about Japan's failure to rein in its
external surpluses.

The Finance Ministry announced earlier Thursday that
Japan's current-account surplus was continuing to grow
in the current quarter, climbing 62.7% from a year
earlier in July to 906.0 billion yen.

What sayest thou, o speedster
doest thou decry
the tale so aptly written
in the sky

In words as stylish
as the Bard you quote
making of the heavens
a seeming goat

For me, I'll reverence
what I don't know
and live by laws to me
the cosmos shows

For such a path
is good enough for I
and the Bard as well
Perchance
He was longeth MGI!

Did somebody nuke all of the markets? Overseas markets are all down, gold down, Globex just fell out of bed, and the economy is stronger than thought. What's wrong with this picture????

Long bond up 4.7 basis points, SnP PREM -703. Gold up 20 cents, silver up two cents on EBN.

Looks like they turned off the Globex quotes on the 'net. :- ) )

BBL

Panda: CNBC S&P futures indicate sell programs at the open. Look out belooooowwwwww! Puetz's puts purvey possible plenty.

Mike Sheller: "longeth MGI"???? All the world's a stage....

Can anyone ( Mr Puetz ) reccommend stox put for around $500.00? How much return would it generate if dow dropped 1000 pts/2000 pts? What ( symbols ) should I ask broker for?

Who Cares-your 02:32 post

"Who Cares ( Upon further reflection... ) :

I realize that is it ALL of us who benefit by LGB's participation..."

Please don't speak for me. Thanks in advance.

Putless -- A put option on what? The S&P 500, S&p 100 ( OEX ) , a company stock? It sounds like to me, that you are looking for a put option with a premium of $5. I don't know on what or whom or when. Your question is pretty vague. Check out the CBOE home page, http://www.cboe.com or http://www.optionscentral.com Good luck.

Geeez! When the index tanks, change the expiration month of the contract! ( makes things look a lot better! ) Prem went from -5XX to +6XX ! In one tick!

OEX? -- Panda? Puetz?

LGB: Just for fun, could you do a mirror image of your market
optimism and prognosticate as to which stox or groups would take
the biggist hit in a reversal, be it temporary or otherwise.This would
be purely nonsensical and would not reflect your true opinions.
PS Thanks for your posts of late, the oven needs you.

Is this a threat?

Thursday September 11 5:57 AM EDT

Japan economy in very difficult situation--MITI

TOKYO, Sept 11 ( Reuter ) - The Japanese economy is in a very difficult situation, Japanese Trade Minister Mitsuo Horiuchi told a brief news conference following his appointment on Thursday to the trade minister's post.

``Japan's economy is now in a very difficult situation and I think it is necessary to take proper policies to deal with it,'' Horiuchi said.

THAILAND's embattled Prime Minister Chavalit
Yongchaiyudh -- who is facing intense criticism for his failure
to resolve the country's economic crisis -- now looks in
danger of being toppled by his main coalition partner, the Chart
Pattana Party ( CPP ) , which is likely to join forces with opposition
parties to dump him.
http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/pages/nseas01.html

JustALurker: Yes stock values could melt and it does not matter if any markets are open or not. In a mania the value exists mostly in the group mind. Ever watch a thousand birds turn as one? In my opinion stocks could loose one half their value in a few weeks or less. We have the most novice investors in the history of this country risking much of their savings in a vehicle they have not witnessed first hand through a single cycle. Will there be surprises? Most "investors" who bought their mutual funds through a bank believe their mutual funds are insured by the same fed who pretends to insure their other bank accounts! The banks have done little to dissuade them.

The very best example of an overvalued large stock is either microsoft or coke. Lets look at coke. The product: questionably pure tap water, sugar and secret others. If bill drinks a lot, it may still have cocaine in it. Sold to an affluent world with more money than brains, surely there is no limit to its rise. Hence the total value of its stock ( currently ) is worth more the the value of all the gold mining firms worldwide. When times get hard ( they always have ) people will find many other things out bidding coke for their few hard earned dollars, things like nourishing food, potable water and perhaps a warm dry place to sleep. In the cold light of this day my guess would be that the value of any one large gold mining firm ( alas this value may be stolen by our poor uncle ) will far exceed that of coke.

Mornin Panda!...XAU down .59 and Dow only down 42 ...but it's early...eh!
....hard to tell what's goin ta happen in the markets these days but I'm just hoping Fidelity gets my latest batch of stock certificates by tomorrow so I can lighten the load a bit...cash is KING....gold certainly isn't in this "new era" ( heard that ONE before ) ....but as I said earlier,it's still early in the game......sun-drizzle-fog- we got it all today!

Senate Republicans yesterday seized on a
newly released memo from a senior
Democratic Party official in an attempt to
show that Vice President Gore knew that
some of the campaign donations he
solicited from his government offices were
"hard money," raising questions about the
legality of Gore's conduct.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm/campfin/stories/cf091197.htm

Morning to you all....What can't go up will come down...Beautiful day here....

Howdy TED! -- Overcast and drizzly here, temps in the low sixties. What is the deal with this El Nino thing? Do we get warmer and 'wetter' winter out of it? Or do we get more snow? From the poor graphics I've seen on the 'Net, it's hard to tell. And yes, I have good graphics capability. So, if this is going to be the worst El Nino that we yet know of... What will it be for us? A rainy winter or a snowy winter? I've got to decide on them oil thingies you know. :- ) )

WELLINGTON, New Zealand ( AP ) - Drought blamed on El Nino has New Zealand farmers
facing serious monetary losses, and already has forced a copper giant to stop shipments from its
Papua New Guinea mine.
Australia's BHP suspended shipments from the Ok Tedi mine Aug. 11 when water in the island's
Fly River dropped below the five metres needed to float copper barges. The mine normally ships
20 million kilograms of copper a mon
http://www.canoe.ca/News/sep11_nino.html

.....Market psychology...dipsters lack confidence........keeping an eye on Microsoft...will it break under $134?
Whether the weakness in
the US$ will force more foreign money managers to liquidate positions in U.S. multinational blue
chips or not is uncertain at this time, but one thing has become apparent in the past week: the
stocks which outperformed in the meteoric advance out of the April 11th low are now being sold
out of fear, and this fear is starting to feed on itself ( which can create the worst of market
conditions: a panic sell-off ) . We still have a way to go ( in prices on the major indices ) before
recently established supports are broken.

There are any number of factors which could turn crowd psychology in either direction, but the
belief that all dips are buying opportunities is suffering from a lack of confidence. Movements
towards the following support levels may only cause more anxiety among investors:
DJIA critical closing support: 7600.00
S&P 500 critical closing support: 899.00
NASDAQ critical closing support: 1562.00

Now, my suspicion is that the universe is not only queerer than we suppose, but queerer than we CAN suppose...I suspect that there are more things in heaven and earth than are dreamed of, in any philosophy. That is the reason why I have no philosophy myself, and must be my excuse for dreaming.

John Burdon Sanderson Haldane 1892-1964

Panda--Go here for climate impact info-- http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/el-nino/impacts.html

The latest scam to break in Australia in our Super funds.
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970912/business/business5.html
In Broome tonight. Lurking as promised. 28 degrees celcius. Nice.
Need another beer. Maybe a EB.

China will never adopt Western-style democracy, a Communist Party
spokesman said today, ruling out the possibility of major democratic reforms at this week's party congress.
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpin16.htm

... currency equilibriums have seriously derailed....is South America next? US currently exports over 40% to that region.
Yen rise against Southeast Asian currencies
could hurt exports
The yen's recent gains on the Thai baht and currencies of other
Southeast Asian countries is likely to cut Japanese export
competitiveness in the region, industry analysts said. By early
September, the yen had risen 34% against the baht since early April.

It went up nearly 25% against the Indonesian rupiah during the same
period and 22% against the Malaysian dollar. It rose almost 10% on the
Singapore dollar at one point.

To prop up their currencies, some Southeast Asian countries are
tightening budgets and finances - moves that have suppressed economic
growth and domestic demand. This is likely to result in slower Japanese
exports to the region, a chief economist at BZW Securities ( Japan ) Ltd.
said.

A re-print from time ago:

For all men strive to grasp what they do not know, while none strive to grasp what they already know; and all strive to discredit what they do not excel in, while none strive to discredit what they do excel in. This is why there is chaos.

Chuang-tzu 369-286 B.C.

mike, thanks in advance for ALL your wisdom and grace. I believe Chuang-tzu was a Taoist, btw

ASA broke LT support and making decade lows on high volume for the stock. Has anyone seen any political or economic news out of SA to account for this? Obviously, it is not a good omen for the market.

In the eyes of the Arabs, is US Secretary of
State Madeleine Albright, the right peace mediator?
http://www.jpost.co.il/News/Article-5.html

September 11, 1997

Albright, Arafat Grim After
Meeting
She's openly skeptical of his promise
to fight terrorism

Updated: Sep 11 1997 10:33AM

RAMALLAH, West Bank: While their language
was diplomatic, the body language of U.S. Secretary
of State Albright and Palestinian President Arafat at
their joint press conference Thursday showed they
were clearly uncomfortable with each others views
expressed during three hours of talks, reports TIME
Jerusalem Bureau Chief Lisa Beyer. "The two of
them were very grim. They didn't even look at each
other, except at the very end, when they shook
hands," says Beyer. "Though Albright made some
diplomatic remarks, she made it very clear he had
not sufficiently answered American and Israeli
demands."

The chief focus of Albright's peace mission here has
been to press Palestinians to root out terrorism.
Palestinians complained that Israel is retaliating for
terrorist raids by expanding Jewish settlements.
Albright responded by saying, "There is no moral
equivalent between killing people and building
houses." And, Beyer observes, Albright was openly
skeptical of Arafat's promise to fight terrorism. "It
seemed pretty clear that the meeting didn't go well,"
says Beyer.

...As of 11:24 AM the DOW is down -90.35 at 7,628.93 ... NASDAQ is down -4.89 at 1,634.36 ... S&P 500 is down -5.37 at 913.66 ... NYSE is down -2.58 at 478.05 ... AMEX is down -1.45 at 668.82 ...

I will give you no more reason to include MY name in your posts...

And I apologize to ALL who read this forum for my 'engagement' with said 'Who Cares'.

away...to live a learned life to its fullest potential and sleep *soundly* with BOTH eyes closed...

EB

I still need the URL for the daily updates on Silver stockpile numbers at the COMEX.

Can anyone help?

Who Cares, EB, leaner, LGB....Wilson's deathbed lament that "I have betrayed my country" ( referring to the Federal Reserve Act passed under his presidency ) should be heeded by us all...his words are dim illuminations of the darkness which we have become so accustomed to that we no longer no we live in darkness. While we can be willing participants in this casino, we are wiser if we ( as per the words of Chuang-tzu" "strive to grasp what ( we ) already know"....study your own history, the words of Adams, Jefferson, Franklin, Wilson, McFadden, Lindberg Sr., Kennedy, Galbraith....SEEK to UNDERSTAND how their words echo through the darkness we have become accustomed to. Chuang-tzu ( 369-286 B.C., China ) was right "all strive to descredit what they do not excel in"...it is easy to discount those who probe the darkness and find a dragon, for they can neither imagine the existence of a dragon nor fathom the consequences of such an existence.

The enigma which was the Wizard of Oz provides lessons for us all in understanding today's "reality"....watch the movie again, for the first time..."follow the yellow ( read: gold ) road"?...by George! Think about each character and who they might represent.... We are fools if we believe all is as it seems....

Study, read, probe.... seek to understand, in the silence of space, the game which is currently being played..... And believe me, there is a masterful game being played today, which in hindsight we will one day marvel, discuss and write about. Let Kitco spend more time probing each possible chess move in this game so as to position ourselves in safety as a few did in 1929.

....I've finally found someone that agrees with my 'trend has changed' it's the Bundersbank....
Bundesbank stirs EMU debate
Copyright  1997 Nando.net
Copyright  1997 Reuter Information Service
EU officials don't expect major decisions from meeting

BERLIN ( September 11, 1997 09:45 a.m. EDT ) - The German central bank
stirred debate about the 1999 launch of the European single currency
Thursday, but Chancellor Helmut Kohl said he was confident it would begin
on time.

Bundesbank Chief Economist Otmar Issing re-opened the issue Thursday
by saying that uncertainty about the euro in the run-up to monetary union
could lead to market instability that could threaten the launch.

But the chancellor's office said in a statement that Kohl wanted the
planned single currency to start on time and with strict adherence to the
entry criteria.

The French European Affairs Minister Pierre Moscovici weighed in by
saying that any delay in the launch of the euro risked derailing the project
altogether.

Meanwhile European Union finance ministers and central bankers
preparing for a meeting in the Luxembourg spa town Mondorf-les-Bains
this weekend will be trying as hard as possible to keep out of hot water.

In a Berlin speech, Issing warned that the trend toward lower German
inflation was over and the central bank was concerned about price trends.

"In Germany we have seen a turning point in inflation. Indicators are going
in the wrong direction," he said. "It is not a dramatic change, but the trend
has changed and we in the Bundesbank are concerned about that."

He added that uncertainty about the euro in the run-up to the planned 1999
start of monetary union could lead to market instability.

"...uncertainty ( at this stage ) could lead to market turbulence and could
jeopardise the start of currency union."

But he said he did not expect such dramatic problems. "I don't think this is
likely, but such a crisis should be avoided."

Kohl's office in Frankfurt said: "The German goverment wants a lasting,
hard euro and the contractually agreed punctual start of currency union on
Jan. 1, 1999."

In a summary of a speech the chancellor was due to deliver in Frankfurt, it
said: "He is convinced that Germany will fulfill the criteria and the
timetable," the statement said.

Moscovici said in Montpellier, France: "We must have the euro on time and
under the conditions laid out in the ( Maastricht ) treaty and I think we should
reject any proposal entailing a delay."

He told a gathering of fellow Socialist party deputies: "I have the strong
conviction that delaying would be renouncing. Creating the euro is fighting
against speculation and setting up a counterweight to the dollar," he added.

While EU finance heading for Mondorf-les-Bains may be hoping to relax,
financial markets are ready to react to the merest hint about the method to
be used to lock currencies in a single currency and any sign of flagging
commitment to launching the project as planned in 1999.

Officials have therefore played down expectations of an announcement on
the conversion rates to be used for economic and monetary union or any
concrete decisions on the EMU-related topics on the agenda.

"I don't expect that there will be any decisions taken which will directly
affect monetary fluctuations. There is no reason to do so at this time,"
European Commmission President Jacques Santer told a news
conference on Wednesday.

That comment was enough to knock the Irish pound lower against the
mark after the currency had climbed earlier in the week on expectations of
a revaluation ahead of the meeting.

The pound was at 2.68 marks early on Thursday, well down from levels
near 2.71 ahead of Santer's comment but still well above its 2.41 central
rate within Europe's exchange rate mechanism ( ERM ) . Most analysts
expect central rates will eventually form the basis for the currency
conversions.



I am not sure how to respond to your recent, lenghty Bombast

I am reminded of a Grateful Dead lyric: "set up like a bowling pin, knocked down..." ;- )

Let's just say...I liked it

You play Chess don't you?... Fancy a game?

away...to check on my king
EB

EB and Jack are right. My wife has TOLD me over and over again.

Mouth shut. Eyes straight ahead. Let others pass to their fate.
Mouth shut. Focus on ourselves. Don't make waves.
Mouth shut. Don't waste your time. Not our problem.
Mouth shut.
Mouth SHUT. MUST KEEP MOUTH SHUT.

MUST. KEEP. MOUTH. SHUT.

Oh, please, let me get this job at the hospital, I SWEAR TO GOD
I'll keep my MOUTH SHUT. Eyes straight ahead.

...assisting A. Greenspan vigilance on inflation...oh Allan...Allan...

At this point in time, it's impossible, of course, to judge the impacts of El Nino on US agricultural
prices; however, with food accounting for 17.4% of the CPI and 21.9% of the PPI, any
El-Nino-related acceleration in pricing could have a major impact on "headline" inflation. In my view,
this potential shock could well have implications for monetary policy and financial markets. One of the
Fed's greatest blunders in the early 1970s was a failure to lean against an emerging build-up of sharp
upward pricing pressures in the food and energy complex. As I see it, the Greenspan Fed of the
1990s is cut from a very different cloth; by this I imply that any meaningful build-up in inflationary
pressures -- whether it comes from labor costs or food prices -- will be countered quickly by a
monetary tightening. As the greatest El Nino of them all continues to play out, there is yet another
reason to be bearish on bonds.
http://www.ms.com/gef.html

EB....Check mate has been called

For y'all who watch the action, today is a very interesting one-
the gold bullion and future price didn't just base and not make new lows
as did the XAU and HUI, but just jumped to new highs for the day.
The patterns we've been accustomed to is for the stocks to lead the metal
well today the reverse seems to be a strong signal, at least to this
watcher, of a turn.

Let's watch further and hope I'm right. By the way the markets are continuing to head south as I write.

ZARDOZ: Tell us more about possible "chess moves" as they pertain to gold. Sounds intelligent.... D.A. Where are you??? Check in!

Argentina Gold Announces Start of 1997/1998 Gold Exploration Program
http://www.businesswire.com/cgi-bin/headline.sh?472666

Anyone been to avid chatroom lately. It seems that they are all bullish. What gives?

Anyone been to avid chatroom lately. It seems that they are all bullish. What gives?

Keep eyes on this one for future reference - Predict that the exact point where dollar = 112 Yen AND dollar = 1.62 marks will be the end of the current bull market is stock.

Thanks.

And for all who give a hoot ( which is likely to be none ) I would like to go on public record and then shrink back into my formerlife:

I am no dupe. I realize there are MANY dragons that 'live under the surface' of our 'wonderful societies'. I realize there are powerful forces that control many things that shouldn't be controlled. I realize many of these dragons need to be unearthed and exposed to the light. I AM NOT BRAINWASHED. Everyone has an agenda, everyone. I plan to watch this great chess game and see how it plays out. I see things too and I don't always like what I see. But, I also feel that the 'game' will be played no matter what we do. I also believe in KARMA...

nuff said for me

AWAY
EB

Hi ya gang, anyone have the phone # for Fidelity Investments, Thanks

REIFY: I can recall no time in the last 6 months when if gold were leading stocks, that gold would not reverse. As you say, it is possible that it now may be different and the stocks are merely completing their basing patterns. But having gold lead the way gives me no comfort.

Worth a visit
http://home.sprynet.com/sprynet/fiendbea/homepage.htm
Dow chart and Nick Chase comment.
Looks like Nick's trying to steal Steve Puetz's limelight?

London Bullion Marketing Association ( LBMA ) is best described as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Daily gold trading nearly 50% yearly production. Who & Why?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron907.html

Skylark -- Same here, but I'll let it if it wants to.

MOGN - days high 5 1/8. How does that Hepcat chant go again? 3 3/8 to 5! ( and in only 5 trading days too ) Yeah, that's it I think. I like the sound of it..."3 3/8 to 5...3 3/8 to..." oh, sorry. The flesh IS weak.

Could someone remind me what the mutal fund was that was short the
DOW?SP500 150%. thanks.

On the nose. Both accounts. Yeah, where is the mighty D.A?

Thank you kind sir.

way...away...
Eb

hi ted

The magic bottom is not more. BEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAR TIIIIIME!!! What a fabulous buying oportunity for all dipsters. LGB do not miss this one!!!!!

Anybody notice how equities are really "tanking" today...Dow down 135 and falling....negTick at 1111....Silver up .05$...come on...go SSC, ECO..
let's hear it!!

Yet IBM is up1/8...tough nut to crack , huh??

TED,
DOW DOWN SOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH.....WHERE IS THE RESISTANCE FOR TODAY?SEEM LIKED TOMORROW IS THE "BLOOD FIELD "FOR THE S.E ASIA STOCKSSSSSSS!THE FOREX SURE WILL GET HAMMERED TOMORROW!THE SAVEST PLACE FOR ME IS THE LOVELY METALS.....GOLD!!!SOLID AND STABLE THESE DAYS IN THE REGION!
REGARDS,....HAPPY TRADING.

TED,
DOW DOWN SOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH.....WHERE IS THE RESISTANCE FOR TODAY?SEEM LIKED TOMORROW IS THE "BLOOD FIELD "FOR THE S.E ASIA STOCKSSSSSSS!THE FOREX SURE WILL GET HAMMERED TOMORROW!THE SAVEST PLACE FOR ME IS THE LOVELY METALS.....GOLD!!!SOLID AND STABLE THESE DAYS IN THE REGION!
REGARDS,....HAPPY TRADING.

HM is less than pocket change from a right shoulder in its forming inverse head and shoulders bottom. Any day now, any day. Don't you all smell a bottom?

Dow falling so fast it hit bottom of chart - had to reset: Dow DOWN 140, Gold UP 0.80, Silver UP 5, Platinim UP 2.30 & Palladium UP 3.20. XAU & HUI also off:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/intra-day.html

Savage....if you want interesting insights into possible moves of smart money check out "On the Side of Golden Angels" on Gold Eagle....under the penmanship of Oracle of Alberta.

For Savage & ZARDOZ -
The famous Russian author Fyodor Dostoevsky astutely observed: "Money is coined liberty" --

Based on historical precedent the House Of Rothschild is buying gold hand over fist! One must only recall history to appreciate the current situation and this once in a lifetime opportunity. See extensive analysis review of what the the Richest Family in the world is investing in now. Between 1929 and 1935, the share price of Homestake Mining, one of the oldest gold mining firms in the U.S., soared over 500%:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta909.html

The daily gold chart from beginning July to present looks just like the fractal of itself from Mid April to end of May. Could a spike up be in the offing?

Mike Sheller -- Looks like we are getting a spike! I'm on 'till it fails.

Seems to be mindless selling going on right now. Metals up and the PM stocks are down. Feels like weak hands folding the tent. Dow has good support at ~7600 and then again at ~7300. Could tomorrows number finally shake gold loose fromthe bears grip?

This the greatest stock bull market in our countries history is based on several myths, behind each is a reality.

1 ) Worker productivity is an engine driving profits higher while product prices remain stable. Reality: All measures of productivity show no gains in the last five years or so over prior periods. Profits have come largely from the pockets of labor. One to two trillion is being looted from the pensions of workers "downsized". In addition real wages are not keeping up with true inflation ( inflation honestly measured ) .

2 ) Inflation is being kept low because we are now in a new era. Reality: Inflation is low currently because there was almost no M3 growth between 1990 and 1995. M3 has been growing rapidly since 1995. The last few weeks have seen weekly jumps in M3 as +20 billion, +12 B, +18 B ect. Inflation is set to surge.

3 ) Yuppies will continue to pour money into their 401s no matter what the market does, thus stocks can react but never fall for long. Reality: The Yuppies have not yet looked at a 30% loss in their total pensions currently booked and growing. MOST people react to fear the same way. They take their hand off the burning stove, at least when they smell the burning flesh. The money may continue into the 401s but I hear you can buy gold and other things in 401s.

...gold mining turning around ( ? ) rallying on heavy volume ( TSE )
World markets down

Brazil 4.74%
Mexico 2.37%
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Soros race is run and he's getting old,
Time for the young to have some fun and go for GOLD.

Thelma, Esther and I are so excited about the way that gold is going up up this afternoon that we just wanted to say "Hi" to all the nice Kitco posters. As my uncle Marvin used to say, "Let's just watch the eagle fly, folks" whenever he was talking about something that really nobody could do anything about one way or the other so we would just watch.

Thanks to all of you for those nice informative posts that you make.

MIKE SHELLER: ASA on a pace to have a record volume on a 52 wk basis which usually signals a trend change, and if it can close in the positive territory after breaking decade lows, very good sign that a bottom is in for the gold complex.

Capn Kev: Fidelity has many numbers - try 800 544 3939 brokerage or 800 544 8888 for mutual funds assistance. They'll transfer you to wherever you need to go.

Gold & Silver ( TSE )
http://canoe.quote.com/fq/canoe/industrygroup?group=tse_gold

To All
If anyone but George Cole recalls, I pointed out this
morning that the one year lease rate was the highest Id
seen for a year or more and suggested that it might
mean that gold would strengthen despite all the evidence
to the contrary. I felt like an idiot even making that
comment.
The only answer I got was from GC, who pointed out
that gold stocks normally lead the gold price up and their
action was horrible ( I knew that George and didnt really
want to be reminded as I hold way too many of them and am
down a bunch ) .
I think we could benefit from a little more analysis
of lease rates. For example, lets imagine than a man
takes a one year gold loan having to pay back the gold
plus the lease rate in a year. He takes the gold, sells
it, puts the money in 90 day instruments, collects the
interest, then at the end of the year, buys the required
gold and pays off his loan.
Well if the lease rate is HIGH and the interest rate
is LOW, there is no reason for him to do this. Moreover,
even if the interest rate is HIGHER than the lease rate
by some REQUIRED MARGIN REPRESENTING RISK, he still
may not borrow the gold as the CURRENCY risk in whatever
currency he invests in may be too high for his taste.
For example at the start of the 1993 gold bull, the
lease rate was pretty low ( 1-2% ) , BUT the US 90 day
rates were low too - a little over 3 %. The German
rates were HIGH ( a hard to believe now 8% plus ) , BUT it
was pretty clear a few weeks into 1993 that german
rates had topped and would fall. One would assume that
an overly strong Dmark at that time would also fall in
parallel and probably as a result.
So one would not have found borrowing and selling gold
attractive at that time. Gold went up as you will
recall.
I realize that this is pretty anecdotal. But having
looked at some of the back data, I think it may be
possible to determine a mechanism to actually forecast
relative currency movements, and with then the direction
of the gold price.
The variable would be lease rate, interest rates in
key countries, and currency TRENDS ( maybe 90 day MA ) .

Bigfoot is coming out of the bog... recommends 50% cash position. DOW 5700-64-- seems to be reasonable price level at this time. Suspect Institutional selling:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger911.html

To ALL
IF this rally should amount to anything, I think it should be written
in the BOOK OF TIME and witnessed by ALL that the GOLD STOCK action DID NOT REPEAT NOT anticipate the direction of the gold price in the gold bull market that commenced September 11,1997.
( Maybe it was the lease rate ?? plus what is starting to look like
a top in the US $ )

bw....very astute comments...we must continually mine the gold ( evidence and reality ) that lies amidst the voluminous myths, veils, and thorns which are meant to confuse and deceive. The more comments and analysis such as yours, the more light of truth is shed through the darkness.... KEEP that light of revealed evidence shining!

Petronius, re your recommendation for me to jump in based on my "Dip" propensity, I've made no secret of the fact that I'm on the sidelines waiting ( and hoping ) for DOW 7100 before averaging back in.

AURIC, re your 04:37, at the risk of being redundant to my earlier posts, may I just say "OPEN THE POD BAY DOORS HAL...."

WHO CARES, re your 02:59 "New Paradigm" that I'm not open to. What "LGB" you been readin man?? All my preaching is precisely that we MUST be open to new Paradigm's ( OK I don't use that overused, annoying word, but you get the point ) . People keep accusing me of being an Evangelist for mindless investing into stox, nothing could be further from the truth. Invest in em in a bull market, absolutely! Those who didn't for these past couple decades have screwed themselves. I'm in the sidelines wand I'll be OUT completely, ( and heavily in PM's ) when economic conditions indicate a long term bear. We may be seeing the top now, I don't deny it, but no clear bear in sight. And Take that PROZAC son, for that depression dammit!

Mephistopheles, To answer your question, Tech stocks on the Nasdaq will fall the furthest when the bear arrives. Look at companies like "Applied Materials" for example. Biggest producer of Semiconductor manufacturing equipment. Applied has risen 300% or so in 2 years. They will have furthest to fall, in a recession based Bear market.

[Crawford Perspectives]
The Highest Tidal Force in years & years will toucheverything on Earth
on Sep 16, leading to excesses in stock& commodities markets, changes in
interest rates, currencycrises, weather and Earthquake/Volcano action.
It will be a maximum in emotional overreaction with allthe attendant
complications, a modern innovative and COMMENTARY

Thursday, September 11
prosperous society can envision ( thinking, as we do,mistakenly, that we are
rational beings ) . Be assured thatyour essence will return to Source.
At the same time thank God that our sad, miserable,conflicted,
caricature-personalities will not muddy thepure waters of heaven.

Puetz & Sheller, I seem to recall a major downturn in the price of gold within 6 months of the appearance of comet Hale-Bopp, and also previously during the appearance of Haikuate ( sic ) . If I were you guy's I'd get busy looking carefully at when the next visible comet may arrive so you can add that into your advanced "Blood on the Moon" chart analysis of PM's.

APH, you need to cut WAY back on your dosage of that medication....

APH and LGB....what do you mean APH about high tidal forces expected? Are you suggesting that we/scientist might expect the highest tidal action in years on September 16th....if so, where is your evidence...also, if so, it could be said that given tidal action is related to lunar dynamics, that this could have profound psychological and environmental ( hence market ) impacts on the globe. Fact or fiction?

That posting is a reprint of his comments being distributed on the internet not mine. I thought they were pretty weird too.

Sorry this is non-gold related and a bit long, but I think some of the U.S. taxpayers would be interested in how their defense dollars are being spent. I recieved this through a Navy contact via electronic messaging, so please ignore the formatting ( all military messaging must use all-caps ) .

And who said the Navy didn't have anyone to compare to Adrian Cronaur ( subject of the movie "Good Morning Vietnam" ) ???

*************************
ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

ROUTINE

R 052000Z SEP 97 ZYB

FM COMNAVSAFECEN NORFOLK VA//00//

TO ALSAFE

UNCLAS // N05100//
ALSAFE 050/97

MSGID/GENADMIN/COMNAVSAFECEN/00-041/SEP//

SUBJ/SUMMARY OF MISHAPS//

RMKS/1. HERE'S THE LATEST IN OUR IRREGULAR SERIES OF REPORTS ON
THINGS THAT HAVE HAPPENED RECENTLY TO OUR SAILORS AND MARINES.
A. YOU GOTTA HAND IT TO UNCLE SAM. WHEN HE BUYS GEAR FOR HIS
FIGHTING FORCES, WE GET THE GOOD STUFF. A BRIEF COMPARISON OF
MILITARY VERSUS CIVILIAN TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT WILL ILLUSTRATE
MY POINT:
-- THE MARINE FIGURED YIELD SIGNS WERE MERELY ADVISORY IN
NATURE, SO HE TAPPED THE BRAKES ON HIS HUMVEE AND PRESSED ON
THROUGH THE INTERSECTION WITHOUT A SECOND THOUGHT OR A SIDEWAYS
GLANCE.
WHAMMO! A HATCHBACK ( IN FULL POSSESSION OF THE RIGHT OF WAY )
SPEARED HIM - DEAD CENTER IN THE PASSENGER DOOR.
IT TOOK HALF A POUND OF BONDO AND TWO CANS OF OLIVE DRAB SPRAY
PAINT TO FIX THE HUMMER. IT TOOK $7000.00 AND THE COMBINED EFFORTS
OF A HIGHLY SKILLED SQUAD OF BODY WORK SPECIALISTS TO UN-WRINKLE
THE CITIZEN'S HONDA.
-- REMEMBER THE GUY WHO STOLE THE TANK AND TRIED TO FLATTEN
EVERY POV IN THE SAN DIEGO-LOS ANGELES CORRIDOR? MEET HIS COUSIN:
THE LANCE CORPORAL WAS SENT TO THE MOTOR POOL WITH ORDERS TO
PICK UP A BRAND NEW 5-TON TRUCK. WHICH HE DID. AFTER HE SIGNED
FOR IT, HE ASSEMBLED AND INSTALLED THE CANVAS TOP, THEN JUMPED IN
AND STARTED 'ER UP. BARRUUM ... BARRUUM.
HE SLIPS IT INTO REVERSE AND COMMENCES TO BACK OUT OF THE
PARKING SPACE - ALTOGETHER UNAWARE THAT A FELLOW MARINE HAD PARKED
A CAR BEHIND THE TRUCK THEN DASHED INTO THE BUILDING TO PICK UP
SOME PAPERWORK.
"HMMM ..." SAYS THE LCPL ( AS HIS RIGHT REAR TIRES COME IN
CONTACT WITH THE LITTLE DODGE'S BUMPER ) , "THIS THING SURE DOESN'T
HAVE MUCH GUMPTION IN REVERSE ..."
A LITTLE MORE GAS ... AND A LITTLE LESS CLUTCH ...
"HMMM ..." SAYS THE LCPL ( AS THE FIVE TON BEGINS ITS BACKWARDS
CLIMB UP AND OVER THE LITTLE DODGE'S HOOD AND ONTO ITS ROOF ) "I
DON'T REMEMBER A HILL HERE WHEN I PARKED ..."
A LOT MORE GAS ... AND A LOT LESS CLUTCH ...
I SUSPECT IT MUST HAVE BEEN THE SOUND OF THE SIDE WINDOWS AND
THE WINDSHIELD SHATTERING THAT CLUED HIM IN TO THE FACT THAT ALL
WAS NOT WELL BACK THERE. MAYBE THAT, PLUS THE FACT THAT HIS NEW
TRUCK WAS PITCHED UP SO HIGH IN THE REAR THAT HE HAD TO GRAB ONTO
THINGS INSIDE AND BRACE HIS FEET AGAINST THE DASHBOARD TO KEEP FROM
FALLING OUT OF THE CAB.
WHATEVER THE CASE, BY THE TIME HE WAS FINISHED, HE HAD JUST
FLATTENED THAT COLT - TO THE TUNE OF ABOUT $10,000 WORTH OF DAMAGE.
AND THE 5-TON? RIPPED THE REAR MUD FLAP. 20 BUCKS.
B. REMEMBER THE FIRST TIME YOU EVER TRIED TO USE A NAVY
BUFFER? KIND OF EXCITIN' THERE FOR A LITTLE WHILE, EH? NEVER KNEW
WHERE THAT WHACKO THING WAS GOING NEXT. MOST OF US, ON BEING
STARTLED BY THE MULE-ISH BEHAVIOR OF THOSE EIGHTY POUND WHIRLIGIGS,
SIMPLY LET GO, DRIED OUR PALMS ON OUR DUNGAREES, AND TRIED AGAIN.
MOST OF US.
OTHERS, LIKE THIS SEAMAN, SOMETIMES HAVE TROUBLE LETTING GO.
AND, BECAUSE SHE COULDN'T ( OR WOULDN'T ) LET GO, SHE STOOD, ROOTED
TO THE SPOT, WHILE HER ERRANT BUFFER, TRAILING ITS POWER CORD
BEHIND, MADE TWO OR THREE LAPS AROUND HER LEGS BEFORE HEADING OFF
DOWN THE P-WAY. THEN ... SHE LET GO. RIGHT AFTER HER BUFFER
SNAPPED THE POWER CORD TIGHT, YANKED HER FEET FROM UNDER HER, AND
PLOPPED HER FLAT ON HER BACK IN A POOL OF WAX STRIPPER AND WATER.
C. AFTER BEING ON HIS HANDS AND KNEES FOR A GOODLY PORTION OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PERSIAN GULF SUN BEATING DOWN, THE SEAMAN
WAS READY FOR A BREAK. HE RELEASED THE TRIGGER ON HIS DISK SANDER,
AND DROPPED IT ON THE DECK.
UNFORTUNATELY ... THE SANDER WASN'T QUITE DONE SANDING YET AND
IT COMMENCED TO SKITTER ACROSS THE DECK - PROPELLED BY THE STILL-
SPINNING DISK. THE SAILOR, NOW ON ONE KNEE, MADE A LUNGE FOR IT
AND ( WHADDAYA KNOW? ) HE CAUGHT IT ( BARELY ) ON THE VERY FIRST TRY.
BAD NEWS WAS ... THE WAY HE CAUGHT IT WAS BY THE TRIGGER.
R-R-R-R-R-R-WHEEEEEE! DIDN'T TAKE MUCH OF A SQUEEZE BEFORE
THAT THING WAS BACK UP TO FULL RPM AND HEADING HIS WAY! BUT IT
STOPPED ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AFTER IT DUG INTO
HIS LEG AND FILETED HIS KNEECAP.
D. THREE I-DIDN'T-KNOW-THE-GUN-WAS-LOADED EPISODES TO REPORT
THIS WEEK. HERE THEY ARE:
-- A BERRETTA AUTOMATIC WAS ALMOST THE UNDOING OF A MARINE
SENTRY WHO MANAGED TO HOLSTER AND FIRE HIS WEAPON IN ONE SMOOTH
MOTION. PUT A FOUR INCH CREASE IN HIS THIGH AND TINY LITTLE 9MM
HOLE IN THE DIRT RIGHT NEXT TO HIS FOOT.
-- A LANCE CORPORAL INADVERTENTLY FIRED AN ILLUMINATION FROM
HIS M203 WHILE HE WAS CRADLING THE WEAPON IN HIS ARM. SHOT OFF HIS
OWN THUMB.
-- PETTY OFFICER OF THE WATCH GOT EVERYBODY'S ATTENTION WHEN
HE SQUEEZED OFF A ROUND FROM HIS .45 DURING WATCH TURN-OVER.
ROUTINE STUFF ... HE SLIPPED THE MAGAZINE IN, BUT COULDN'T BE
BOTHERED WITH CHECKING TO SEE IF THERE WAS A BULLET IN THE CHAMBER
BEFORE HE PULLED THE TRIGGER.
NO DAMAGE DONE AND NO ONE WAS HURT ... UNLESS YOU COUNT THE
HALF DOZEN GUYS WHO HAD OUT-OF-BODY EXPERIENCES WHEN THAT GUN WENT
OFF ON THE QUARTERDECK.
-- HEY. YOU KNOW, PEOPLE DIE BECAUSE OF MISTAKES LIKE THAT.
IT'S SOMETHING YOU MIGHT WANT TO KEEP IN THE BACK OF YOUR MIND IF
YOU ROUTINELY HANDLE WEAPONS ON WATCH ... OR ANY OTHER TIME. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE JUST TOO COOL FOR
WORDS AND ARE CONVINCED THERE'S NOTHING ANYONE CAN TEACH YOU THAT
YOU DON'T ALREADY KNOW ABOUT SMALL ARMS SAFETY.
E. IN A SALOON, A MARINE WAS THROWN FROM A MECHANICAL BULL
AND LANDED HALF ON AND HALF OFF THE MAT. THE PART THAT MISSED THE
MAT WAS HIS HEAD. NOW, IN ADDITION TO FIGHTING HIS WAY BACK FROM
A FRACTURED SKULL, HE'S TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO LIVE THE REST
OF HIS LIFE WITHOUT A SENSE OF SMELL.
F. THE SAILOR SHOULD HAVE KNOWN BETTER. HE'D BEEN TREATED
FOR HIS DRINKING PROBLEM, BUT FINISHED OFF A SIX-PACK THAT
AFTERNOON ANYWAY. THERE WERE SIGNS EVERYWHERE WARNING FOLKS NOT TO
DIVE - OTHERS ANNOUNCING THAT THE WATER WAS ONLY THREE FEET DEEP.
BUT A SIX PACK MAKES YOU SMARTER THAN ALL THOSE SIGNS, DOESN'T IT?
BESIDES, HE WASN'T GOING TO "DIVE" HE WAS GOING TO "BELLYFLOP".
YOU KNOW, MAKE A BIG SPLASH ... GET SOME LAUGHS.
WHEN THEY PULLED HIM OFF THE BOTTOM OF THE POOL HE WAS DEAD.
NO HEARTBEAT. NOT BREATHING. NO PULSE. CPR BROUGHT HIM BACK TO
LIFE JUST AS THE AMBULANCE ARRIVED. AT THE HOSPITAL THEY GAVE HIM
THE BAD NEWS: A BROKEN NECK. TOTAL QUADRIPLEGIA. FOREVER.
EVERY DECISION YOU MAKE IN YOUR LIFE HAS CONSEQUENCES.
G. ALMOST TIME TO GO. THIS LAST ONE'S FROM OUR SPY NET.
IT WAS ONE OF THOSE HORRIBLE MANDATORY-PT MONDAYS AT THE
SQUADRON AND, IN PREPARATION, THE CHIEF IS CREEPING AROUND HIS
HOUSE IN THE DARK LOOKING FOR HIS JOCK GEAR - TRYING NOT TO MAKE
ANY NOISE. FINALLY, HE GETS IT ALL ROUNDED UP: SHORTS, T-SHIRT,
SWEAT BAND, WRIST BANDS, SOX AND ... RUNNING SHOES. FINDS ONE.
SLIPS IT ON. CAN'T FIND THE OTHER. WAIT. THERE IT IS. HE PICKS
IT UP AND, WHILE HOPPING ON ONE FOOT LIKE THE KARATE KID, JAMS HIS
FOOT INTO - THEN OUT THROUGH THE FRONT OF - HIS SNEAKER.
"ROUGHT RO."
STARING DOWN THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN TWILIGHT, THE CHIEF EYEBALLS
THE BLOW-OUT IN HIS CONVERSE ALL-STAR AND DECIDES ..."WELL, IT'S
BROKE, BUT IT AIN'T THAT BROKE." AND HE HEADS FOR THE GARAGE.
STEP/FLOP/STEP/FLOP/STEP/FLOP
THERE, HE RUMMAGES THROUGH "THE BOX" WHEREIN EVERY HANDYMAN,
WORTHY OF THE TITLE, KEEPS THE FOUR NECESSITIES: DUCT TAPE, VICE
GRIPS, WD-40, AND - WHAT HE'S LOOKING FOR - THE HOT-GLUE GUN.
( UHHH! UHHH! UHHH! )
HE PLUGS IT IN AND STANDS THERE FOR A MINUTE WITH HIS ARMS
FOLDED WAITING FOR IT TO WARM UP. THEN HE REMEMBERS ... HE LEFT
THREE KRISPY KREEMES ON THE KITCHEN TABLE.
"DOOOOOOONUTS ..."
STEP/FLOP/STEP/FLOP/STEP/FLOP
"MMMMM ... WHAT'S UP WITH THIS CARBO-LOADING STUFF, ANYWAY?
GIVE ME AN OLD-FASHIONED RATION OF LARD, FLOUR AND AN INVIGORATING
JOLT OF SUGAR, ANYTIME."
ALAS, HIS REVERIE IS SHORT-LIVED. A GLANCE AT HIS WATCH TELLS
HIM IT'S TIME TO GET GOING.
"THE GLUE'S GOTTA BE READY BY NOW."
STEP/FLOP/STEP/FLOP/STEP/FLOP
BACK IN THE GARAGE, THE CHIEF PICKS UP THE MORE-THAN-READY
GLUE GUN, POKES THE MUZZLE INTO THE BLOW-OUT IN HIS SHOE AND PULLS
THE TRIGGER.
( OH. DID I MENTION, BECAUSE HE WAS IN A HURRY, THE CHIEF
DIDN'T BOTHER TO TAKE HIS SNEAKER OFF? AND AS SOON AS THE BY-NOW
BOILING HOT LIQUID GLUED HIS TOOTSIES ( 1 ) TOGETHER AND ( 2 ) TO THE
BOTTOM OF HIS SHOE, HE WAS INSPIRED TO BREAK INTO A RATHER
FRENZIED, ONE-LEGGED, SNEAKER-SCOOTIN BOOGIE? )
STEP/FLOP/HOP/HOP/HOP/HOP/HOP ...
BILL ENGVALL, THAT GREAT COUNTRY AND WESTERN PHILOSOPHER, SAID
IT BEST, CHIEF, "HERE'S YOUR SIGN."

2. THAT'S ALL WE HAVE TIME FOR TODAY, WE'LL SEE YOU SOON. UNTIL
THEN - TAKE GOOD CARE OF ONE ANOTHER, WON'T YOU?

BT
NNNN

As we all know as "fact", the full Moon influences human behaviour in profound ways and... Oops, wait a second, just in, I see an actual scientific study was done and reported in JAMA that concluded the full moon had NO EFFECT WHATSOEVER on certain measures of human behaviour, ( daily birth rate, incidents of domestic violence, admission srates to ER's, etc. ) Oh well, another cherished myth down the tubes.....

Does anyone remember a 28-29 day cycle ( quasi lunar ) which affects roughly 30% of the entire human race? I do, but it doesn't happen all at once ;- )

If the gold stocks close up today after their early heavy volume selloff -- that would be a very constructive development.

John Disney; I am not arguing that every blip in bullion is preceded by a similar blip in the stocks. But major and long-lived moves in bullion generally follow strong moves in the gold stock averages.

Now THAT'S a cycle that's truly scary!!

Especially when it stops unexpectedly....

You got that right pal! Take it from a guy whose wife has had TWO, yes TWO post vasectomy babies!! ( And YES they were both mine dammit!! )

In case anyone is interested in a DJ-30 chart... We are bouncing off of support levels. Do not confuse this with going higher or lower. So far the move is being 'contained' by the 21 day Moving Average, downward. Draw your own conclusions...

GEORGE COLE: I agree the gold market could go up with no apparent reason one day as markets sometimes do. I believe however that the CB's are doing whatever ( derivities etc. ) to control the gold market. That is why my guess is it will take an "event" to trigger the upside on golds. When the CB's will no longer be able to control the market. What say you?

DONALD, PUETZ: I picked this off an SI thread, which may be of interest:

The historic tendency for gold to rally in value during deflations is not appreciated in part, because most investors wrongly assume that gold is primarily a hedge against inflation. The record here is clear, but apparently over-looked. It was documented in a thorough study, The Golden Constant: The English and American Experience, 1560-1976, by Professor Roy W. Jastram.

Here, in Jastram's words, is a summary of his findings: " The evidence drawn from the English experience for 400 years is clear. Gold is no hedge against inflation of a prolonged character. Even worse, operational wealth ( purchasing power ) consistently and seriously in each inflationary episode.... From 1897-1920, a person would have lost two-thirds of his operational wealth just by holding gold in bars from the beginning to end. And this was in the golden age of the gold standard."

What about deflation? Jastram continues: "Four pronounced price deflations took place in the four centuries recorded, with the three most severe occurring since 1800. In all four price recessions operational wealth in the form of gold appreciated handsomely. When one sees that just by holding gold for 13 years from 1920 to 1933, operational wealth would have increased 2 1/2 times, one realizes that gold can be a valuable hedge in deflation, however poor ininflation."

LGB -- Would you have felt better if they weren't? What has that got to do with the markets or gold, anyhow?

The new paradigm says that gold is dead. There's just one itsy bitsy problem though. All of the, "Hedges against inflation", are based on a PROMISE to pay. Gold suffers from no such problem. Possesion of the metal concludes the transaction. By definition, transactions can never be concluded with debt instruments. You must continually 'roll over' the debt. It will come as a rude awakening at some point. Though not today.

GRANNY: Loved your story of a few days past. Brings reality to a site like this. Glad you're enjoying the market action. Say hi to Thelma and Esther.

Could someone please reassure me that that wasn't just a dead hepcat bounce on the spot chart? Please...

John Disney - as I recall the short term lease rate peaked at around six percent in early December 1995 which fortold the strong rally in gold beginning on Jan. 2, 1996. I suspect that the holiday period and end of year stuff was partly responsible for the delayed reaction.

LGB: I asked a few days ago what you thought would happen on 9/15 when the barrage of economic indicators comes out. I predict a 3%+ drop in the Dow ( not a crash, but well on the way to your 7100 ) . If I'm wrong, I won't mind a rhyme. July's indicators did not yet measure the inflationary trends as I think August's will. I think it's a bear market from here to 6500-6800.

I trade now with a couple of traditional discount houses, but I'm looking to set up a trading account with an online broker. Anyone have experience with Datek? Any others? Good or bad comments?

Shape of things to come ? http://fast.quote.com/fq/quotecom/chart?symbols=gcz7&time_period=1-minute%20Bars&bars=600?wstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key

You mean you're excited that gold has bounced back to within a buck of Hepcat's "$325" target? man it sure doesn't take much to get diehard GoldBugs excited! Now as to gold being better than a promise, kind of empty to hold it as the promise holders enriched themselves for 15 years during gold's decline, isn't it? After all, the "promise holders" can now purchase a hell of a lot more physical ( should they be so inclined ) , than if they'd been stubbornly sticking to the metal al these years. New tax bill also allows Gold coin purchases in 401K plans by the way....

A 3% drop on Friday wouldn't surprise me, if it happens I'll be tempted to buy on the close ( a small play ) and sell on an uptick Monday or Tuesday. 1% or 2% drop seems more reasonable though. What worries me is next week's triple witching hour.....When is that eclipse again??? ;- )

Morning Skylark. I posted a table from Jastram's book the Golden Constant on April 30 at 23:34.
To work...

Aurator: Thanks

Well folks, how are we going to resolve the wide gap on the Weekly Gold/XAU Ratio chart. http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/Ratio.html

Has the rubberband been stretched to the limit? This gap is the largest it been since the beginning of Nov 92. Something has to give.

The Maller's Market Memo dated August 19, 1997 states the bearish case
on gold. See http://www.fadc.com/memo/memo6-16.html

His recommendation on gold:
"Continue to sell out of the money gold calls until the market has
obviously turned, and go along with the pros in the pit."
He also advocates selling way out-of-money near term silver calls.

Savage:

Sorry not to have responded to your question about our system going long gold a few days back, but I have been busy of late. My research endeavors have turned towards the equities markets and there is much data with which to play. At least in the realm of my world of make believe simulations it would appear that I have struck upon a new way to extract money from the market. It is a completely new track for us as it revolves around trying to pick off small bits from many places rather than aiming for a great kill. A lot of its success will hinge upon execution costs and efficiency of execution so its one of those things that we won't know about until we give it a try.

With regards to your query on our potential for getting long gold from a systematic standpoint I can say that we are again closing in on a possible buy. It is hard to give price levels because the system takes into account more than just historical pricing so the target is in some sense moving. Part of its activity is to judge what might be called the underlying strength of the market. It does this through some gauge of the intraday price action. The lookback period for the system is a few months so that as the decline of early july fades into a distant memory the system will begin to see things in a more positive light. We are long all the other components of the complex. If and when we do get a buy signal I will post it just as soon as possible. It will be the first one in many years when it does finally arrive.

Things are looking up in the commodities markets in general and our system has more long positions than at any time since the spring. We own a whole bunch of grains in addition to the precious metals, some energy, and some softs.

The markets are doing their best to confound the most. Maybe those looking for an 87 type event will miss it because the 'final' rally as indicated by the historical charts just never happened. If they jump in short now they will probably get a little whipsawed before the thing moves down some more.

Golds action today is confounding all of those who thought the metal was heading lower because the stocks have not been leading. Markets do their best to leave the masses standing at the station. Even those who have the picture right.

To my sight the case for gold moving higher in the shadow of a stock market decline lies in the probability that the monetary authorities will be less likely to pull the trigger on rate hikes in the face of a potential financial market meltdown thus allowing the dollar to fall and
commodity prices to rise.

Hope your trading is going well. BBL

There was an advisor named Sheller
Who seemed like a pretty nice feller
But if he signals "buy",
based on stars in the sky,
I'd advise you to become a seller

The gold stock indexes closed down on the day despite $2.40 jump in bulion. Very bearish action probably signals more downside in the gold stocks. Oa more positive note, sharply higher volume suggests that a major turnaround may be quite close timewise if not necessarily pricewise..

Panda;

I've been watching the Dow bounce off its 200 day moving average. I see the next test occurring at about 7300, when the Dow will either bounce or penetrate its 200MA, as shown below.

LGB: That last rhyme is your best so far. Stars might have worked when Ronnie was in the White House, but not today. The 3% drop I think will come MONDAY. CPI and several other indicators come out. Wall Street will be like the streets of Pamplona then.

PUETZ: Sure hard to anticipate a crash when leading growth and tech stocks such as INTC, CPQ, TXN, AOL, CA, MSFT, and many others have held in so well during this recent decline. What I would anticipate before a substantial market correction is that these stocks would start to downtrend as the general market is going higher.

On a more serious note, a fascinating article on Gold, CB Governers meeting last week, and some of the commentary on their statements to the effect that gold no longer plays a role in world finanical systems... http://www.afr.com.au/content/970904/market/markets4.html

BW, re your 16:13. I have to laugh when I see people calling the current positive economic indicators "myth".

Is it a myth that the national deficit is declining at a far higher rate than anyone ever imagined, due to increased revenues from more workers making higher incomes? Is it myth that per capita income has increased across the board for all socioecomic groups?

A myth that the boom in stocks has in part been fueled by increased savings rates from us poor working folk? A myth that I can't get to work in less than an hour and a half these days because of gridlock in the Silicon valley, when 8 or 9 years ago the highways were a breeze and there were no jobs for Engineer's?

A myth that my own income ( and that of most of my peers ) has increased by more than 80% in 10 years due to the burgeoning, diversified, rosy economy? A myth that improving company profits have been passed on to employee's via massive increases in share values in their 401K plans?, a myth that , far from massive layoff's to raid employee pensions, the retirement plan of choice for the vast majority of companies is now completely portable 401K plans that we take with us, layoff or no layoff? ( As I have now done through 3 company changes in 7 years ) .

A myth that we're getting a tax cut in 1998 solely due to the "phony" unexpected improvements in the revenue situation for the Fed Govt.? ( If they KNOW it's a massive hoax, and they havn't REALLY improved the revenue picture, what the heck are they doing giving us a tax cut! ) In fact, on that same note, how silly of the Govt. treasury dept. to allow us to pay our taxes with these phony "inflated" dollars, don't they know they should be raising taxes 10 or 20% this year to compensate for the M3 inflation you're so worried about?

And that same foolish Treasury dept. is allowing us to buy Gold coins barely above bullion prices with this worthless paper they've conspiratorilly foisted on us. What Putz's!! ( No pun or similarity intended to any known person ) . those guy's really ARE dumb! They print funny money at the treasury, and then allow us naive foolish sheep to exchange that worthless paper at the same treasury dept. mint branch, for Gold & Platinum coins that have genuine value! Man, those guy's can't even do a conspiracy right!!

LGB: Sorry, I dont do comets. For a man so down on celestial phenomena, your post vasectomy episodes certainly qualify YOU to be a shooting star yourself, don't they? ( :- ) Please check my 7:41 post this morning, then click on a chart of MOGN and tell me again, in your delightful verse of course ( really enjoy it ) how my astrological "advice" turns out. I made the MOGN call just for you, in order to illustrate the kind of astrology I do ( corporate & institutional chart analysis ) . I do not do ephemeral phenomena like comets and eclipses, etc. I never found them my style so I keep my mouth shut about them. I love ambushes, as you know. Check that MOGN chart and check my Sept 5 call around 8 AM or so. Hope you enjoy. Later.

LGB: The econ growth is very skewed to benefit the top twenty percent. Is it a myth that outstanding debt at all levels is at historic highs. Is it a myth that bankruptcies are skyrocketing. Is it a myth that the deficit has decreased dramatically before almost every economic downturn. Is it a myth that we are in a world economy and most of the world Asia/ S America ( Brazil ) and Europe EMU is coming unraveled. Is it a myth that we have the greatest financial bubble and overvaluation in stocks in history. I could go on LGB YOU KEEP BELIEVIN. Many Germans also believed right up to the end of WWII.

LGB: You are so much fun now. Stuff in your post to Zardoz, among other things are some of the reasons I have not abandoned non PM stock trading, and am still involved in several situations ( most astrological of course ) . Your reasons are fundamental, and I have no problem with them. May I add technical factors such as a solid Utility Average performance ( usually declines significantly before a major market decline ) and a refusal of bonds to tank ( indeed may be poised for further gains here ) . The activity in small caps ( my favorites ) usually precedes or parallels a top, but all things technical considered, it is possible for the broad market to be strong for several more months, while weakness in the Dow & S&P allows fund rotation into lesser exploited shares. Just giving you my point of view.

Miro Wed 20:43

Perhaps my anticipatory irony was missed ;- ) I could not agree more with the sentiments expressed by your professor. That is precisely what I'm trying to do - collect information. I'm still working on separating the wheat from the chaff - endless. On the last point I agree as well,
I get far more than what I pay for - in time, not access fees - from the entire spectrum of gems at Kitco. :- )

BBL

I'm sory Mike but I'm a small brained creature and can only manage one poem per day! Now as to astrology, how is it that all the Astrologers and psychics, completely missed their opportunity to make an accurate call, on the dual tragedies of Mother Theresa and Lady Diana? Seems like the stars and psyhic vibes would have been WAY strong for these, world riveting events....

As to markets, cycles, starts, and your chart, I can only repeat what I said to Puetz. In order for the data to be valid, we must take ALL comparable market events for the time frame in question, correlate them to the supposed celestail windows of opportunity, and compare that to random chance.

Puetz for example, used the "Tulip mania", certain commodity panics, etc. in his bubble/crash data. If he's going to do that, than he needs to ALSO include the great rises and crashes we've seen in Oil ( early 70's ) , Coffee, Soybeans, "Tickle me Elmo" dolls ( probably trading at .10 cents on the dollar about now I bet! ) , and all the other great bull/bust markets too numerous to count during his given time frame.

Fairly simple statistical analysis could then reveal whether random chance, or celestial events have any correlating effect on these great, human emotion driven, market cycles.... Until I see ALL the relevant data, such celestial "analysis" has absolutely no meaning whatsoever...other than for fun of course. And I do freely admit, it provides a great source of amusement! Come on Mike, deep down you and Puetz are laughing your Booty off at everyone who takes it seriously, right? right??

Is that URL in your 16:31 post correct? I would like to look at that site, but I can't get my browser to admit it exists. It sounds interesting. When all other stocks are at record PEs, why are gold mining stocks so low relative to the price of gold?

It reminds me of gaps between long- and short-term interest rates that reflect investors near- and far-term expectations.

Perhaps this reflects the popular long-term view of gold juxtaposed with the yellow metal's current pesky tenacity in the price arena.

WW re your 17:32. Dude, the glass is half FULL! Half FULL!!!!

September 11, 1997

Economy bright, but Fed official watches for inflation
signs

SEATTLE ( AP ) - Signs of a spring economic slowdown were "illusory at best" and growth at the
current levels can't continue without eventually rekindling higher inflation, a Federal Reserve
policy-maker said Thursday.
Robert Parry, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said some temporary
factors are holding down inflation, including a strong dollar and the shift by employers to managed
health care, but, "we don't know how long they'll last."
At the same time, he said a case could be made that inflation will remain more modest - "say two
or 2 1/2 per cent" - over the next 12 to 15 months.
The comments came at a time when Wall Street is jittery over whether the U.S. central bank is
worried enough about inflationary pressures to try to cool off the economy by raising interest
rates.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Feds-Parry.html

Oops, sorry WW I forgot, you're that Socialist guy who covets the equality, prosperity, and paradise like conditions of economies that aren't exploiting the workers. i.e. North Korea, Cuba, old Soviet Empire.

Sorry LBG, youve got some myth in you post because you are judging the
whole country based on your personal situation. E.g., even the official
statistics from the Labor Department does not support 6% annual growth in
personal income ( thats what it takes to get 80% increase in 10 years ) .
Higher than anticipated decrease of deficit is not dues to increased
revenues from personal income taxes but from increased revenues from
taxes on company revenues/profit.
Do not judge the whole country based on your experiences in Silicon
Valley - its the same mistake as our administration is doing -
experiencing "inside the Washington syndrome"

True Miro, personal circumstance is simply anecdotal, however, all the actual "data" I've seen indicates that the majority of Americans at ALL levels have been steadily becoming more prosperous. Employment and income figures for minorities for example....

LGB,
You are such a breath of fresh air, ( sincerely )
and I don't even have to pay for you,
not even with paper ...

LGB: re: 17:52 Not clear whether I should order seat belts for my computer chair or candles for cherished beliefs.

LGB- One thing that I do aggree with you on is the role of eclipses, or lunar cycles, or whatever in market events. They are at best a spurious correlation, if there is any correlation at all. As I'm sure you have pointed out before, undoubtably there is some phenonemon which tracks any set of events. This a predictive model does not make. One must be very careful to ascribe causation. Now, if there is a physical model underlying the observations, the case is stronger. I'm not aware of one, but I'd love to hear from Mike re: such a model.

D.A. : Thanks for your response. There are certain posters that I pay particular attention to and look for their posts. And, simply, 'We missed you man!'. Seriously, what do you make of today's events? I'm cautiously optimistic, but, next week will tell the tale. During last week, I took small position in OJ and Silver. .....hope to hear that your system turned apoplecticly positively L-O-O-O-N-G the yellow word soon!!

LGB : WE are all socialists when it comes to govt. The battle is who the govt represents and benefits. I favor the mass majority of working people who support the system ( which supports your Great Corporate Welfare State can exist. ) I am against the type of corporate socialism you support. Universal Health Care Now/ More laws to protect worker rights here and abroad not the super elite richie riches.

LGB: You are being unfair. You are not listening to what I said to you, DIRECTLY to YOU, in my post. Go back to 7:41 today. I did this for YOU. ( And for my friends at Kitco ) . I did a demonstration that is incontrovertable ( like a Castro convertible ) . Check it out and then we'll talk. Explain it away, and I'll listen. But you now have to go back and LISTEN to what I have told you, and see what I have done for you. You didn't have to wait five years as in your buy and hold strategy ( I am happy you made money, but how boring ) . You don't have to wait til the Eclipse. I called it on the DAY the stock would move, and I'm calling the date of maximum activity. Check it out. Several people at Kitco have my private emails on this public call on Sept 5. If I was wrong, I will shine your shoes. Go see the post and the MOGN chart. If YOU are wrong about what I'm doing ( and I take NO responsibility for OTHER "astrologers" ) what will you tell me? Are you MAN enuf? Look at my post, look at the MOGN price chart, and EXPLAIN. ( I suspect you are enuf man if you've had 2 kids post vasect - as a husband, father, and human being, I am supportive, please believe me ) .

LGB: That said, it IS a myth that new savings are fueling the market. A SHIFT in savings, perhaps. But I don't think savings RATES have increased at all. It IS a myth that the deficit has decreased anywhere near as much as reported. Accounting methods have masked a lot of debt. And if Social Security and Government pensions had to reserve anywhere near the way insurance companies have to, the additional debt would be staggering. Of course the government can tax and print money. So we either have 1 ) more debt than reported, 2 ) future tax rates at 85%, or 3 ) future inflation. You pick. Much of what comes out of Washington is myths. I'm guessing that I'm far closer to the PhD's in D.C. than you are. I went to school with them, had them as professors. As one
of my professors told us, during Brazil's difficulties in the 80's, the key point in the solution was to 'cook the books'. Which reminds me. The books are being broiled in corporate America. I personally saw tens of millions added to the bottom line of a major insurer headquartered in San Francisco. The result? Higher stock price, of course.

The article someone made reference to yesterday...

SpaceDev to Launch First Private Spacecraft and Land on Asteroid

WASHINGTON, Sept. 9 /PRNewswire/ -- SpaceDev Chairman James William Benson announced today the company's intention to launch the world's first private spacecraft and land on a near earth asteroid for the purpose of collecting scientific data and to stake a claim for commercial mining of its valuable mineral resources. Benson plans to accomplish his goal by mid year 2000.

The spacecraft, Near Earth Asteroid Prospector ( NEAP ) , first in a series of SpaceDev deep space Prospectors, will carry up to five advanced scientific instruments to an asteroid near the earth in order to analyze its size, and determine its composition and value. SpaceDev intends to sell the acquired data as a commercial product as well as stake claim to the asteroid in order to set a precedent for private property rights in space.

``NEAP's success will prove that space is a place, not a government program,'' said Benson. ``Private companies and the public can and should have a direct stake in the opportunities space exploration and development have to offer,'' he added.

NASA leadership has challenged the private sector to get more involved in space exploration -- a challenge which goes to the core of SpaceDev's business strategy.

``SpaceDev will be able to produce the same high-quality scientific data as government run programs for about one-fourth the cost,'' said Benson. ``We've reduced the cost of exploring space by employing basic management strategies, using existing technology, building alliances with experts in space exploration and forming creative cost-sharing arrangements.''

SpaceDev is working in conjunction with teams of professionals, academics and students from CalSpace ( University of California at San Diego ) , New Mexico State University and the University of Texas on the final mission plan and spacecraft design which will be completed by month's end. Construction and testing will begin as early as January 1998, after a qualified independent group review of the mission plan. Completion of the spacecraft is planned for mid 1999 and SpaceDev intends to launch shortly thereafter.

``Any asteroid a mile or more in diameter, even a stony asteroid ( the most deficient in valuable minerals ) , contains natural resources that if found on earth would have a value of more than a trillion dollars,'' said Benson. ``The return on investment is well worth the effort. NEAP's success is a major step toward achieving the goal of making commercial space exploration self- sufficient,'' he concluded.

SOURCE: S

LGB: During the Soviet Era all Of the DATA from the govt demonstrated an economy with good growth/low inflation/rising living stds/practically non existent unemployment/ rising incomes and a healthy rate of non inflationary spending. The same type of numbers came out of Nazi Germany in the thirties. The publication of these "numbers" benefited the elite to the detriment of the mass majority of people. Maybe if we believe in numbers you believe in the prosperity of the abovementioned societies. No thats right here the elite dont benefit from the govt distortions. Sieg Heil Comrade!

WW re your 18:10. That's right I forgot, what Govt. doles out in benefits to individuals is "welfare" what Govt. doesn't CONFISCATE from individuals or businesses, is "Corporate welfare". Now I got it....

what a pair, birds of a feather flock together-----
the liberal dashing duo at the ready.

Excuse me WW, it isn't the Govt. numbers that matter my poor misguided starry eyed friend, what matters is what percentage of our popululation is enjoying decent food, shelter, and health. Compare that with those Marxist Utopia's you are enamored with. really no comparison is there? Sorry to be "results based" instead of theoretical ( a complaint so many here have made ) , it's just a little flaw in my thinking patterns...

LGB you keep believin the BIG LIE heh maybe your ECONOMIC FUEHRERS do have a secret weapon.

The $A Gold price has broken out of its downtrend for the second time in three months. Charts showing both these breakouts are now up at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/twogold.html

The first time this happened was in mid June. That was followed by the July 3 RBA announcement that it had sold 2/3 of its Gold ( 67 Tonnes ) . Gold duly fell over $US 20, not because of the sale, which had already taken place, but because of the announcement of the sale.

The last G-7 ( heads of state ) meeting took place in June in Denver. That's the one where Mr Clinton made himself insufferable by gloating at the economic performance of the US. Look at what's taken place since then.

Hashimoto threat to sell Treasury debt for Gold
Hong Kong reverts to Chinese rule ( July 1 )
RBA Gold sale announcement, and fall to 12 year lows on $US Gold price
Start of Asian currency crisis - in Thailand
Dow rise to 8259 ( on August 6 ) and subsequent ongoing correction
Indian announcement that Gold to be incorporated into financial system
Increasing volatility on stock markets, and crash on Asian markets
Malaysia follows India's lead to incorporate Gold into financial system
Gold price almost stops moving altogether in $US terms
$A Gold breaks out of downtrend for the second time on September 12.

Now, there is another G-7 meeting coming up - with the IMF/World Bank - in Hong Kong. Mr Clinton did not endear himself to his foreign counterparts at the last meeting in Denver. Increased volatility on stock, debt, and currency markets since then have not helped matters. I expect this meeting to be a fiery one indeed. The only question is whether the participants can keep a lid on it for public and media consumption.

The $A Gold price has acted as a reliable lead indicator for the $US price ever since the $A was floated in December 1983. On a P&F basis, it has now signalled a downtrend breakout for the second time, and this one has a much better "base" than the one in June had. Take a look at the chart and judge for yourself. While you're at it, I have also posted a longer-term $A gold chart at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/ozg-long.html

OK Mike, I'll go check it out, always want to keep my mind open. Not too far open though lest WW convert me to a desire to live in Stalinist Russia! ( Ahhh to live in a Workers Paradise..a potato a day, a broken down Yugo in every garage..... )

LGB The US has gone from first to thirteenth in std of living during your so called time of prosperity. We are now the biggest debtor versus creditor in 17 years. All to try to help develop the world economy through govt/corp policy which is now on the verge of collapsing. Further, it is you who believe in the numbers who would have been a great citizen of the former USSR. Love Those Numbers !!!
I'll say it again Sieg Heil Comrade I too believe!!

LGB: I take you diversionary assault on WW as a cop out, a punk out, a retreat. Your inability to confront my astrological call, your sidesteppoing into an attack on hapless prey, far beneath you, tells me you aremnot serious, "small-brained" as you are. I think your brain is larger than you suppose. Vindicate me, or forever incur my disdain. Save your investigation of my claim, I will not post to you again.

LGB, baby!: Didn't see your last post. Happy you'll oblige. Posted before I saw you were going to check out my earlier post. Still love you, baby!

What's wrong with potatoes?????

Nothing wrong with Potatoes, just that in Socialist countries there's no butter, sour cream, or bacon bits to put on em!! And I mispoke re the broken down Yugo's, I forgot that the nations WW loves where equality reigns supreme don't HAVE garages to put broken Yugo's in! ( LGB, signing off now to take some of his phony Govt. number paper profits and figure out how many Gold & silver coins they'll buy... )

The Star gazer and Rosie Scenario LGB better wake up . LGB it is you who are suited to one of the former marxist utopia type societies as you believe everything the govt spouts. I attempt to critically analyze to find truth. Star gazing? well no comment. Although I believe the Lunar eclipse is on the 16th and this should be a crash day?

For you stockpickers out there, PR Newswire
( http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/9-11-97/315136&EDATE= ) is making a big deal out of Everen Securities' debut on the WWW at http://www.everensec.com/ . I couldn't find much of interest to goldbugs, but their Capital Markets page http://www.everensec.com/capmarket/capmarket_fr.htm is kind of interesting, having intraday mkt commentary, daily hot equity picks, etc.

EB: I didn't hurl because I turned the game off before I got to that point. Saw somewhere that Druckenmiller once got the lowest score ever given on one intelligence test he took, getting only 2 out of 50 answers correct. Now, you've got to be REAL smart to do that; i.e., you've either got to be a real smart person, or a real smart vegetable. Don't know which it is yet.

Maybe in Socialist oriented countries there are no bacon bits, sour cream and butter" for the potato"e"s because they are trying to protect the peoples' health and keep medical costs low. Like some are now trying to do with cigarettes here.

BILL BUCKLER: How are most of the Australian equities doing relative to the gold chart. Ie, have they established clearly defined bottoms, are they rising off the bottoms or is it a mixed bag? The few companies that have shares listed in the US that I follow do not have good chart patterns.

Back from my latest ISP downage.....*@^%#%$&%$....Jin: Don't get so excited....it's only money!...better get back to your meditations...ommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....Cherokee: ditto....Hi EB...homemade pizza fer din din.....since the weather was bad,spent the day watchin CNBC ( with mute button firmly depressed all day ) and reading my doom+gloom book and the end result: my damn nerves are SHATTERED !! Time for a movie with the wife....

2: Regards my 16:31 post, the URL is correct and was working when I posted it. You might want to try http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger ...and then work your way to the Ratio chart by first going to the weekly commentary page and scrolling to the bottom. There you will see the choice for the Ratio page..... by the way the XAU chart is madeup of Friday's Weekly Closing Price of the XAU Index and based on Friday's closes the low for the XAU was established on APRIL 25TH, 1997.!!!!!! Again based on this Friday weekly closing price chart, the bear market in the XAU gold index ended on that date ( Arpil 25, 1997 ) and thus we had the beginnings of the new bull market in the XAU Index at that time.... But what do I know. I'm not a guru ( ^+^ ) : )

Dow/Gold Ratio 23.65

Skylark ( Sept 11 19:11 ) It's a mixed bag for Aussie Gold stocks. You can check out the Aussie gold index at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-ind.html or the stocks themselves at http://www.the-privateer.com/goldprod.html

Aussie gold stocks sold off dramatically after the RBA announcement in early July and then bounced. Since then, they have been going sideways and in more recent days they have been gradually subsiding.

If Puetz is right and the Dow crashes, I don't expect gold stocks to do well. If we do get a crash, then stocks are not going to be the investment vehicle of choice for most investors - not *any* kind of stocks. If LGB is right and the Dow is going on to yet another upleg, it will be business as usual and gold stocks will lag.

BTW, I don't think we are going to get a crash or another "upleg". My reading points to a repeat of what happened to Japan - a long and increasingly painful sag. If that is what does happen, then gold stocks may do well. We've had the blue chips and then the small caps, Gold stocks are about all that is left. But they need some encouragement from Gold itself.

I do not think that stocks will lead Gold this time. When gold moves up, it will be from demand outside the U.S. overwhelming the ability and/or the daring of the U.S. hedge funds shorting the metal. Interesting that volume was up by 250% ( 20000 to 55000 ) during today's trading.

Bill Buckner: Any good small Aussie producing/exploration companies with relatively small FD shares that you would as speculative buys?

Bigfoot is coming out of the bog... recommends 50% cash position. DOW 5700-6400 seems to be reasonable price level at this time. Suspects Institutional selling:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger911.html

Captain Bill: Let's call a spade a spade! You are anticipating a severe BEAR MARKET in U.S. equities. Long and slow with many suckers' rallies designed to keep the masses from selling out until prices have dropped A LOT. This also is my expectation.

Niner -- The market is acting manic. They sell off all of the blue chip techs in the morning only to buy them back up in the afternoon. I think the fear is that earnings will suffer if the Fed has to raise rates. Then again, when you have projected earnings in to the next century... I doubt that the Fed will raise rates. There are too many stories being floated about deflation as opposed to inflation. Another media game going here. It's a 'new' toy that they've found, and they have to 'play' with it.

The PM stocks sold off with the rest of the market. Then the metals started going up, and so did the PM stocks. Apparently, there is not much conviction on which way to turn yet.

Do I think that we'll get more upside in the general market? I think so. Near term ( days to a week or two ) it depends on tomorrows' numbers and what the Fed chooses to do at its' next meeting. If there's no rate increase ( my bet ) , then there will be a 'relief' rally, and then the inflation/deflation debate will rage for sure!

Historical precedent suggests House Of Rothschild is buying gold hand over fist! See extensive analysis review of what the the Richest Family in the world is investing in now:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta909.html

As I scroll down the posts here all I can say is
"Thanks LGB for this wonderful site"

Bill buckler: Sorry for mispelling your name. As an old baseball fan Billy Buckner brings back lots of memories ....

Lethargic gender bender the wattle is out and gold is going only one
way. Looks like you,as you have predicted, will be blindsided. Roo says
howdy, its a drought where he comes from and his gender has just bent.
His wad though is so big its protruding from his pouch. Koala, well
what can I say? Lets just say he is off his face. Possum has chilled
out. And old Yellow Bellied Black Snake is on the move. Short winter
for him and he is hungry. El nino says whatch me spike gold like
its never spiked before. Oh, if anyone has seen the anti-christ just
tell him the coast is clear.

Inflation -- We all know what that is.

Deflation -- Sell it for whatever you can get, NOW! Before the price drops again! ( He said to his broker in an impassioned voice. )

Dis-inflation -- Falling inflation rate.

Price stability -- ?

Niner -- I think that this is just the warm up phase for the volatility we are going to see. Keep an eye on VIX. Remember, volatility is an important pricing factor for an options contract. Options could just become too expensive!

George Cole: If you want to describe a market that fell from 38800 to 14300 in 2 1/2 years - like Japan did between 1990 and 1992 - as a "bear" market, I wouldn't disagree with you George. Haven't seen one of those in the U.S. since 1974.

But please don't tell me what I am anticipating, I am quite capable of doing my own anticipating. Those who don't see any chance of U.S. bear market should take a good close look at what happened to Japan. After all, if Alan Greenspan has done so, it probably bears ( oops ) emulation..

No offense taken, George, I hasten to add. I enjoy your posts here.

Is this a vote of No Confidence on the Globex tonight? Or is it tomorrows' numbers that has everyone rattled?

Well, the vote that counts, is the one they take around nine A.M. tomorrow...

Down over $8 in afterclose trading....augurs well for tomorrow

Warning mauls Motorola

Shares tumble in after-hours trading after
company issues earnings warning


September 11, 1997: 6:25 p.m. ET







Motorola wows
after hours - July
8, 1997

A third eye in the
sky - June 17,
1997



Motorola

Ericsson





NEW YORK ( CNNfn ) - Motorola warned
Thursday that third-quarter results will fall
significantly below analysts' expectations -- news that
sent the company's stock on a sharp dive in
after-hours trading.
Motorola is suffering because of "weakness in the
world's two largest markets for paging products," the
company said a statement. "In China, the paging
market is experiencing a larger-than-normal seasonal
downturn."
http://www.cnnfn.com/hotstories/companies/9709/11/motorola/

BILL BUCKLER: Thanks for responding and will ck. your site. I value your opinions Your description of the performance of the Australian gold stocks mirrors that of domestic stocks. After their run-up, they have been lanquishing and tailing off, which is disturbing in view of the stability of gold itself. Today's action was not encouraging with the leaders off and no significant response from any junors. What is encouraging is only a few have broken LT support and volume is picking up.

As to whether gold will lead gold equities, you have a good point. But I have never observed gold leading equities at the beginning of a major turn. I would think any event that would cause investors, whether foreign or domestic, to invest in gold itself would also cause them to invest in equities, at least in the leading majors. As you are probably aware, August had a net inflow into gold mutual funds and gold coin sales reportedly have picked up recently. Thus there is still an interest in gold by investors. But apparently not enough to drive stocks. It is really quite surprising the very small volume in some of the stocks having 90M or more issued shares.

From what I have observed, I would also agree with your concept of the general market. This recent decline has been orderly and most of the growth and tech stocks I observe have shown no signs of breaking down. I see no evidence in the internals of the market that a crash is imminent. Conversely, with the GDP as strong as it is, with the FED threatening, and recent currency problems, I also do not see the market making new highs. I expect the recent volitility to continue and the market to decline over time.

As to whether gold stocks will go down with a crash, if a crash does occur, I agree that all stocks will probably be affected, but importantly the gold equities are not responding to the recent declines in the general market.

BOEING MAY HAVE INHERITED A NUCLEAR DISASTER

When Boeing acquired Rockwell's defense and aerospace businesses for $3.2 billion last December, it may have gotten more
than it bargained for. Among those assets were Rockwell's Rocketdyne nuclear test facility in Santa Susana, Calif., long
plagued by reactor accidents and contamination problems. On Sept. 11, the California Health Dept. and the University of
California released a joint study finding that "all evidence...indicates exposure to ionizing radiation among nuclear workers at
Rocketdyne has increased the risk of dying from cancers of the blood and lymph system."
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/september/nf70911b.htm

...assisting A. Greenspan vigilance on inflation....
US M-2 money supply up $18.0 bln in September 1 wk

NEW YORK, Sept 11 ( Reuter ) - U.S. M-2 money supply rose $18.0 billion in the September 1 week to $3,989.7 billion, the
Federal Reserve said.

The broader M-3 measure rose $19.5 billion to $5,228.7 billion. M-1 was up $10.0 billion to $1,080.6 billion, the Fed said.

The Fed said the four-week moving average of M-2 was $3,969.7 billion versus $3,958.5 billion in the previous week.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/11/y0004_z00_25.html

WW: Your 19:06 a "Kitco Classic." Will appear on "the Best of Kitco", available on CD and Zip disk. I dislike your philosophy. I love YOU.

Rubin - US agencies work well to curb volatility

WASHINGTON, Sept 11 ( Reuter ) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, chairman of a Presidential working group that
monitors market volatility, said on Thursday that federal agencies were coordinating their efforts well to deal with potential
emergencies.

``The adequacy and effectiveness of mechanisms within and across marketplaces to protect the payments and market systems
during market emergencies are indeed matters of utmost importance,'' Rubin wrote to Michigan Congressman John Dingell,
ranking Democrat on the House Commerce Committee.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/11/y0004_z00_22.html

"Economist" gives advice to Brazil. ( Where do these guys get the notion that to be a great nation you have to have worthless money? How can he call himself an economist? )
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/11/z0009_82.html

NOMERCY: Money supply is finally chugging along at the kinds of rates that have characterized many market tops in the past. The Fed will have to turn the screws at some point, but there is every indication that they are hog-tied for the moment politically. Watch the DJ Utilitiy Average. When it starts to tank, the signal will have been given.

WW: You'll get my bacon bits and sour cream when you pry them out of my cold hardened arteries!!!

Skylark and others;
granted that one day does not establish a trend but to make the case I brought up before of a change in action between bullion and XAU, may I remind you of Steve Kaplan's indicator where he used the difference between the two as something to watch. If i remember correctly if the figure is below 250 it's bearish and above 260 bullish. Now Approx 230
still makes for a bearish scenario, but we have to start somewhere.
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html
After checking I couldn't find his using this indicator any longer, maybe I missed it or maybe it got too far out of line. I think for the near future it bears watching. Just one more thing to confuse us.

Overall the picture is beginning to look constructive, with volume
yesterday in both BGO and ABX having picked up.

Russia worries about nuclear capability of Pakistan.
http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/09/09/international_news/russiapak_1.html

Globex Sept S&P down 750 as I write after closing at a severe discount.

Have any of you noticed? Each week we start off with Dow up and gold down, since June. Each week the closer we get to Friday, the more gold wants to go up and the Dow down. Each week those that anticipate this move try to get ahead of the other guy by selling Dow sooner and buying gold sooner ( Nick you had better sell on Tuesdays now. ) Pretty soon, it looks to me like the Dow is going into the Pits.!

...the man wants to finish ( ! ) what he started.....
Chavalit appeals for
trust, says he will not
step down

GREG TORODE in Bangkok
The Prime Minister yesterday issued an emotional
appeal for people to trust him, and vowed he would
not resign before a crucial no-confidence vote.

General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh insisted he would
not dissolve Parliament by calling a snap election
before a vote on political reforms.

Such suggestions were for "lowlifes", he said.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970912021939086?=asia&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2501

Mexican peso shows signs of weakness.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/11/z0009_89.html

I purchased a 5$ Silver Canadian Maple leafs today for 5$ each. if I borrow 100K, Buy 20,000 Maples Leafs ( using them as cash collateral for the loan and silver goes to say 8$ per oz within the next year, I can sell the Maples leafs for 160,000.00 ( 20,000 * 8 ) for a profit of 60,000.00 ( minus a little interest ) . On the downside, if silver goes down the maple leafs will never be worth less than the 100K I borrowed. Sounds like little risk and great potential for gain. Is this legal? If the maple leafs are legal tender ( are they? ) , would a bank take them as cash collateral? Tell me i'm going to make a killing please.

Merger of two troubled Japanese banks called "crucial to the Japanese financial system"
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/10/z0009_21.html

...Finance Minister being doubted....
Some also took his new economic forecasts with a
pinch of salt. Mr Anwar predicted 8 per cent GDP
growth and a current account deficit trimmed to 5
per cent of gross national product this year and 4
per cent next year.

Economists pointed out that countries' trade gaps
normally got worse before they got better after a
devaluation, suggesting the benefits probably would
not be seen until at least next year.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970912010617015?=mar&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2983

ARDEN: The DOW is NOW in the pits, tho I admit somewhere down the line this will look like a picnic. This may be the moment for the general market to outpace the major averages as funds rotate to unexploited stocks. But I think another lurch upward is in the cards ( maybe not to new highs ) , and a top formation of considerable magnitude may prove to be the consternation of crash watchers and rampantgolbugs alike. A few more months perhaps. A time for foundation building for the "new era" of gold.

DONALD: Any news?

Speculator @ US: Did you pay US $5 for Candian $5 Maple Leaf? Have you checked the currency conversion rate before assuming you got a bargain? 1.00 to buy .83 of silver, perhaps?

Comex daily gold.....

ANZ Bank feels its share price is being unfairly swept away in the SE Asia meltdown.
http://www.smh.com.au:80/daily/content/970910/business/business8.html

Look at this chart. Then put your best rose colored glasses on... Does this look like a similar pattern to the 1996 run up in gold??????

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Precious Metals UP, Gold stocks DOWN????????????

Panda: 330 will be a cause for minor rejoicing. Then 340 and it's over the MA. .... We should be so lucky. Eh???

MIKE SHELLER: Thank you for your early morning comment. I have been away all day, just catching up now. News? I haven't heard anything have you? If I see anything important I'll post it. Oh, by the way, stay at ground level for the next couple of weeks, don't go over or under any bridges and stay away from low lying coastal areas.

Speed,
Perhaps that front page WSJ article on gold was the catalyst! LOL

Nikkei down 255.83 ( 1.40% ) ...ommmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Panda: I'm not sure if it's just me or not but your charts are exceedingly too large to see in one screen. Is it just me me or can they be delivered in a slightly smaller size? Just a bit so I don't have to scroll so much.. Thanks

LGB: The reason I didn't want you to read this is because I don't want to have you write back ( :- ) ) You seem to have an inexhaustable supply of energy in your responses. You're making me tired having to read them all ( :- ) ) .... Don't you have to eat supper or go to the bathroom at least once ? ( :- ) )

TTFN

Ocaen=ocean in Capebretonese...ommmmmmmmmmm

panda: That is a historically very bullish chart pattern. An upside breakout on volume would herald a NEW BULL MARKET IN GOLD.

There was a fine fellow named Ted
Who left the gold market for dead
Who invested his cash
In paper and trash
To hell with the metals he said

Gentlemen, Nikkei for a short time dropped below 18,000. Wasn't this
a magic number which was quoted by Japan as "Nikkei can't drop below it
because Japan economy can not take it"?!

nomercy - your post regarding Motorola is "spot on". Did you also know that Motorola is the SINGLE MOST POPULAR STOCK among the thousands of individual investments clubs ?
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970911/business/stories/motorola_1.html
Your posts of late have been appreciated. Truly yeoman's work. I salute you.

George Cole - We agree completely regarding the expected downward slide in stock market averages. You term the short term rallies within a decline market "sucker rallies" and I call this "slot machine" behavior. I cannot forsee the slope of that slide and do not expect any type of crash. A crash would "spook the horses" from buying into sucker rallies or leaving the slot machine.

Tomorrow is Friday again ...

The DOW took a terrible bite
With no end of dropping in sight
But gold fluttered there
Was it bull or a bear?
Only Kitco gurus cast a light

Speculator, re your 20:47, Canadian ML's have 1 ounce of silver. American Eagles have the same amount. they both seel for $5.00 to $6.00 each, U.S. dollars ( trading generally about $1.00 over spot ) . Be patriotic, buy American! BTW, where in the world did you get the idea silver would go to $8.00 in the near future? I remeber when silver was $10.00 an ounce and it was supposedly going to go to $25.00! guess what happened from there??? Over the next 10 YEARS!!! However, I agree your risk isn't TOO high since silver has nowhere to go but up based on industrial demand, increasing third world nation demand, unprofitable mine closures, and dminishing above ground reserves.

Nice try Tort, but leave the rhymes to LGB now will ya! Lurker, you're welcome! WW, pass the Big Mac & Fries. ( Oh YEAH they are healthy in those socialist countries all right! The males live to be all of 56! )

Bundesbank using "Daisy" method this week on interest rate decision;
Raise Rates, Raise Them Not, Raise Rates, Raise Them Not, Raise Rates
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970911/business/stories/dollar_1.html

Well, Nikkei is in free fall, Currently -407.74 at 17874.49 :-o

Will Dow follow tomorrow?

Maybe the day crowd just spends too much time arguing with each other or they all use full-service brokers. I'll repeat my question of the last two days. Does ANYBODY have experience with Datek online brokers? Comments on any others onliners?

Yellow Jacket: I can't help you but please...SOMEONE ANSWER HIM!!!! I've noticed you've asked several times....WAKE UP KITCOITES!...Nikkei down 360.94 ( 1.97% )

The US Money supply surged! M1 +10 billion; M2 +18 billion; and the broadest indicator, M3 +19.5 billion! VERY RELEVANT IS FOLLOWING Guest Guru Milhouse analysis:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse831.html

Check on your dry powder guys/gals. I got a terrible itch that says somethins agonna happen real soon. PANDA--re:your gold chart of 20:58--it's gettin' a little tight down the end of that gol durned triangle!

Donald,
Here is the most objective book on the y2k catastrophy:
http://www.yourdon.com/books/fallback/fallbackhome.html

Tort ( 21:20 ) My own poem....oh my gosh...gee willikers...Yeah, Iez the "paper king" but bought em many many years ago....Time ta take some profits....if Canada Post can only get more of dem paper certificates ta Fidelity in time....go mailman GO....Miro: Nikkei playin follow the leader....as usual....

LGB: Still think there are no wage pressures with the current low unemployment rate? Why would a FRB prez say this? - Robert Parry, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, said today: "Until maybe a year or two ago, you could say with some justification that economic uncertainty probably impacted the demand for wages by workers. But with tightness developing in labor markets, you are going to see a bit of a change. And I think you will see a picking up of wage agreements, and I think things like the employment cost index will rise at a faster pace."

OK Sheller, I'll give you a win on "MOGN" but I think it has roughly zero nada, zip, or so to do with any celestial bodies. After all, I called for SSC to do well in my posts of yesterday, and today it's up +9%!!! ( As opposed to your MOGN of +5% ) . However, I'm no Astrologer, and the SSC gain has nothing to do with the stars & planets either.

Tell you what Mike, make 20 more predictions here on individual issues, and if you have impressive hits on say ..ohhh... 15 of em, then I'll start paying attention! See, as an engineer with some physics, science, statistics, and reliability classes behind me, I have to side with the
" valid statistical sample size" models of analysis, rather than an ocassional dart thrown at a board based on who knows what criterion.

By the way, why was "MOGN" influenced by the planets/stars when so many other stocks dipped? What special characteristics made it more susceptible to Saturn & Pluto's tremendous influence than other Pharmaceuticals??

MIRO: Yes, I think the Dow will fall. No businessman, no government, no saver can plan his financial affairs in this environment. Millions of man hours are used every day in this currency crapshoot. Hours that could be put to productive use to satisfy the needs of billions of people with a poor standard of living. This garbage has been going on for too long and it will end badly for those who have not planned for it.

Maybe no one uses Datek.

Ted, you deserve no less than the gilded lymerick my lad. I look for the paper to smolder tomorrow preparatory to burning. Paper smoke with waft in the morning air tomorrow.

Tort--where can I get one of those bronze poets?

If you want the mail delivered don't call Karl Malone... he DOESN'T deliver...Doh! ( bart )

away...to read the mail...

eb

PANDA or ANY Kitcoites!!!! "Does ANYBODY have experience with Datek online brokers????? Comments on any other onlines??? Yellow jacket: Bein an Amerikan citizen livin in a foreign country ( CANADA ) I can't trade through a U.S.of A broker online so I got no experience ta answer your repeated question....WAKE the fuc$ up guys+gals and answer YELLOW JACKET!

TED: Thanks. I'd hate to have to visit another chat group for the info. But...wait a minute...Doesn't LGB know EVERYTHING? Wonder why he hasn't answered. I'll even take it as a rhyme!! ( :- ) NICK: How's your "little darlings" doing tonight?

South Africa: JCI to demerge gold business

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 12 1997

By Mark Ashurst in Johannesburg

JCI, South Africa's first black-controlled mining house, will separate its
core gold business from its base metals interests early next year in a move
which could revive chances of a merger with Lonrho, the UK
conglomerate.

The demerger was announced yesterday, less than a week after a visit to
Johannesburg by Nick Morell, Lonrho chief executive, and just two days
after Duiker, Lonrho's South African coal subsidiary, agreed in principle to
buy Tavistock, JCI's unlisted coal subsidiary.

The demerger could lead to a merger between the new gold company and
the mining interests of Lonrho, following the breakdown of previous
merger talks between the two in June.

Proceeds from the R1.7bn ( $361.7m ) sale of Tavistock will fund the
purchase of a 27.6 per cent stake in Lonrho, which JCI is due to acquire
from Anglo American at the end of the year.

Mzi Khumalo, chairman, yesterday countered analysts' criticism of the
Tavistock disposal, which will dilute JCI's earnings from its most profitable
business, by insisting JCI would be involved with Lonrho for the long term.
"Maybe at some time we will end up having merged with Lonrho. You
never know what the future holds," he said.

Further details of the demerger would be finalised by November. These
could include a foreign listing for the new gold company "in London, New
York, or wherever". In the meantime, JCI planned to expand its gold
division through acquisitions.

Disposals, and a slump in bullion prices, reduced JCI's net asset value 20
per cent.

OK Kitcoites, I thought for sure this news story of an extremely bearish on stocks, bullish on gold indicator would have been posted by now since it was on today's noon news, but since no one has done so, it falls on my overly prolific fingers to do the job. Now this one is truly frightening, so El Nino / Eclipse / etc. buffs take note.

OK, I hesitate to even post this, but in Maryland, the 3 number Lotto was hit recently for the FOURTH time by the three digit combination of... yes folks "666"! this can ONLY mean that Armageedon and the Apocolypse is upon us and a special message is coming through the Maryland Lotto as our final warning! Sell stocks, buy gold, the end is at hand in 97!!! You paying attention Sheller??? Puetz???

Don't know nothin' about nothin'.

eb

( Gee, I wonder if any of these guys have a bias against gold? )
Currencies industry: Jump in revenues
defies downturn forecasts

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 12 1997

By Simon Kuper

Foreign exchange revenues jumped at almost all large European banks in
the first half of 1997, confounding last year's belief that the currencies
industry had embarked on a long downturn.

Deutsche Morgan Grenfell and Swiss Bank Corporation raised currencies
and related revenues by 40 per cent or more compared with the same
period in 1996. Most UK commercial banks reported turnover growth of
at least 20 per cent. ABN Amro had a 10 per cent increase.

Earlier this summer, most US banks reported strong advances. The figures
were collected from interim reports by the magazine FX Week.

A year ago, many thought revenues would never rebound. European
economic and monetary union seemed set to wipe out as many as 11
currencies. New electronic broking systems had cut margins and
apparently reduced volatility. Banks fired an estimated 1,000 currencies
traders. This year, volatility recovered sharply, leading to a surge in
revenues. The rise in the dollar helped volatility in leading exchange rates to
double from last year. Emerging markets turnover rose, partly because of
this summer's Asian currencies crisis.

Nick Beecroft, head of global spot and proprietary foreign exchange
trading at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, said: "There's been a lot going on.
We could hardly have asked for more."

Profits were also helped by job cuts in 1995 and 1996, and the dollar's
rise against European currencies has flattered reported revenues of
European banks as they translate dollar income into home currencies.

Marc Hotimsky, global head of fixed income and foreign exchange at
CSFB, said: "It took European banks a long time to understand they had
too many people trading European currencies against one another. A lot of
them have got their act together and reduced staff, time, investment and
capital they devoted to European currencies."

Today demand for traders and analysts is strong again, particularly on
emerging markets desks.

DMG, which has invested heavily in emerging markets, reported a 40 per
cent rise to DM441m ( $244m ) in its proprietary trading revenues, from
currencies, metal and foreign notes, compared with the first half of 1996.

Swiss Bank Corporation reported a 43 per cent surge to SFr592m
( $400m ) in foreign exchange and bank notes revenues for the first half.
HSBC Holdings, the UK bank, raised its foreign exchange dealing income
by 28 per cent to 243m ( $414m ) . National Westminster saw a 23 per
cent revenue rise to 139m. In the Netherlands, ABN Amro raised foreign
exchange dealing revenue by 10 per cent to Fl 406m ( $692m ) .

EB buddy bro dude...how's it goin???....pretty mellow on the "far east" coast....just chillin in the hood.....yep, I think I picked the "Mailman" and forgot he don't deliver....dumb me...duh.....Should of sent em by "air Jordan"....oh well....it's only paper....dust ta dust....

Yellow Jacket--I've broken my own rules and have bought some gold shares on a Friday! I'm gonna break another rule and "hold 'em" over the weekend. Me good mates in the U.S. Of A. are gonna do the right thing by me and put that little line on Panda's chart up through that horrible purple line and out of that danged triangle in the right direction--arn't you guys?.

Yellow Jacket, Re my omniscient abilities;

Though LGB is quite all knowing,
The "Jacket" has slowed his strong showing,
"Datek" questions stumped me,
now I'm feeling grumpy,
Maybe even my knowledge needs growing.. ( but I doubt it! )

Nelson: As a Chicago Cubs fan, I still remember Bill Buckner's mis-handled ground-ball at 1st base to keep the Cubs out of the World Series.

Japan: Tokyo-Mitsubishi in $7.56bn loss

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 12 1997

By Paul Abrahams in Tokyo

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi yesterday said it would post one of Japan's
largest ever corporate losses when it revealed results for the six months to
September. The bank expects to make a net loss of about 900bn
( $7.56bn ) after writing off bad loans of 1,076bn.

Tokyo-Mitsubishi, one of the world's largest banks with assets last year of
77,000bn, hopes the move will draw a line under its property and
construction-related bad and non-performing debts.

Heavy provisions were expected, but not on such a scale. Last month,
ING Barings expected Tokyo-Mitsubishi to write off 240bn of bad and
underperforming loans.

The bank yesterday said it had suffered from unexpected failures and
restructurings at non-bank financial institutions and construction companies.
It also warned that the Japanese economy had not recovered as expected,
predicting that interest rates might have to rise.

The size of the provisions raises awkward questions about the extent of
bad debts at other less financially secure banks.

Tokyo-Mitsubishi's move will put pressure on its rivals to make similar
provisions, but few have the strength of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, which is the
leading financial institution in Japan's biggest keiretsu corporate grouping.

The bank is also among the least exposed to the property market. ING
Barings estimates only 10.4 per cent of its loans are to real estate or
construction companies. Despite the losses, the credit agency Moody's
maintained Tokyo-Mitsubishi's ratings at Aa2 for its deposits.

In all, the bank has put aside reserves of 1,300bn, equivalent to more
than 100 per cent of its 1,270bn worth of declared bad and
non-performing loans. It said there would be no need to raise additional
equity following the provisions. Its risk-adjusted capital ratio would still be
8.3 per cent at the end of the month, above the internationally accepted
minimum. It expected the ratio to rise to 8.6 per cent by the end of March
1998.

The bank expected to make a non-consolidated operating loss of 880bn
for the six months to September, against the 50bn profit it had previously
predicted. For the full year, it predicted net losses of 750bn against its
previous target of a 50bn profit. The bank said it intended to maintain its
dividend.

The bank said it also planned to restructure, cutting staff from 19,304 to
17,000 by 2000 and the number of branches from 354 to 327.

"This will bolster Tokyo-Mitsubishi, without doubt. The bank's willingness
to accept losses on that scale demonstrates its strength," said Masaru
Kakutani, a director at Moody's. "The other banks will have to decide
over the next few weeks whether they can afford to follow its lead in
clearing the decks."

Eventually, Japan's banks will be forced to disclose the scale of their
problems. Regulations to be introduced in the spring will make banks
assess bad debts more realistically and oblige them to set aside reserves
for problem loans.

Explorer: Thanks for the info last night. You're right about Amax having a mill. They are producing over a 1000 oz/day at supposedly .03 opt. from a reserve of 4m ozs. Somehow .03 seems pretty skinny to me. That means around 35 tons of ore have to be processed for an oz of au. It seems hard to believe that this could be economical. Any thoughts?

McAlvany states that fifteen years ago the CBs held 33% of all gold but now they hold only 5% of all gold. Can he possibly be correct? Perhaps he figures that what is leased out cannot be sold until it is reclaimed.
Does anyone have any ideas about this statement.

I quote, " From 1993 until now, gold has been held between $350 and $400 an ounce by two factors: First, central government banks ( which hate gold ) have battered it down whenever it bobbed above $400 by selling off their gold reserves. Since the early 80s, however, those gold reserves have plunged from 33% of total reserves to about 5% today. That's near the point of exhuastion, very close to the absolute minimum they need for daily business. Second, numerous large gold mines have had to forward-sell their production to make ends meet. That has the same effect as shorting it. As soon as gold breaks above $400 they won't need to do that any more. In other words the the main forces holding down gold since the early 80s are on the verge of extinction.

When the stock market starts dropping what will people do with all that cash? Well, if only a tiny 1% of it goes into gold in any form, the price of gold will likely jump to over $1000 an ounce......"

McAlvany publishes the "McAlvany Intelligence Advisor"

Arden: Is it -- Dow is going into the pits?
or -- Dow going the right way for Puetz?

McAlvany states that fifteen years ago the CBs held 33% of all gold but now they hold only 5% of all gold. Can he possibly be correct? Perhaps he figures that what is leased out cannot be sold until it is reclaimed.
Does anyone have any ideas about this statement.

I quote, " From 1993 until now, gold has been held between $350 and $400 an ounce by two factors: First, central government banks ( which hate gold ) have battered it down whenever it bobbed above $400 by selling off their gold reserves. Since the early 80s, however, those gold reserves have plunged from 33% of total reserves to about 5% today. That's near the point of exhuastion, very close to the absolute minimum they need for daily business. Second, numerous large gold mines have had to forward-sell their production to make ends meet. That has the same effect as shorting it. As soon as gold breaks above $400 they won't need to do that any more. In other words the the main forces holding down gold since the early 80s are on the verge of extinction.

When the stock market starts dropping what will people do with all that cash? Well, if only a tiny 1% of it goes into gold in any form, the price of gold will likely jump to over $1000 an ounce......"

McAlvany publishes the "McAlvany Intelligence Advisor"

EB: Ditto!....I take the overwhelming silence ta mean that none of you clowns trade online....what's da matter with ya??? I would if I wasn't in EXILE...a stranger in a strange land......Banished to the remote coast of Cape Breton Island....coulda been Siberia so I count me lucky stars....
1-2-3-4...can't go no higher....

Panda: In a post a week or so ago, I stated that an uptrend in gold depended on falling confidence in stocks -- especially secondary stocks. The public still loves stocks, and they are still pouring into small-cap stocks.

However, during the past two days, secondary issues have begun to weaken just a shade. It's no coincidence that gold began to perk up at the same time. Should secondary stocks slump drastically, then gold prices should jump up dramatically.

LGB - you moron! Don't disrespect our esteemed contributor, Mike Sheller. He out classes you any day. Keep your dull witted comments to yourself! Guys with your aptitude and level of understanding of what's happening here on our planet are the problem. A little knowledge can be dangerous for the masses ( LGBs of the world ) ; suddenly they think they have all the answers and are alweays attacking those who they will eventually learn from. Imbosiles, the lot. Sorry for you, LGB, that you fall in this category and don't even realize it.

I'm a mathematics professor of 23 years with a strong background in physics. The more I learn, the more I realize I don't know. Haven't you ever heard of this cliche? Because of my extensive study of math and science, I am even more open minded to other avenues of thought and do not dismiss that there may be much too learn about astrology! ( And not the kind of astrology you may read in the tabloid newspaper trash! )

New York: Warning on computer upheaval

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 12 1997

By Alan Cane in London

New York City faces significant disruption at the turn of the century as a
consequence of the computer "millennium bomb" despite being among the
best prepared of the world's major conurbations to tackle the hazard.

This is the principal conclusion of research carried out by the consultancy
Corporation 2000, which is investigating the likely social and cultural
consequences of the bomb across the globe.

The implication is that other large cities will be affected more seriously by
the bomb, the result of a short cut commonly used by software specialists
in the 1970s and 1980s. The technique saves expensive computer memory
but renders the majority of computer systems unable to distinguish between
one century and another.

The governor of New York state, George Pataki, has declared a
moratorium on all new technology initiatives which would deflect any of the
state's agencies - including health, police and social services - from
concentrating on eliminating the bomb.

The consultancy, which has offices in New York and in Southampton in
southern England, argues that without corrective action, New York's
electricity supply will be cut by 50 per cent between January 1 and January
10 2000.

"The consequences for New York, which is above the frost line are going
to be much greater than for, say, Adelaide," said Martyn Emery,
co-director of Corporation 2000. He said hospitals would be forced to
limit admissions to emergencies for a month, while the New York stock
exchange and the city's banks would be closed for eight days. Road, rail
and air transport would be disrupted for a month.

The effects of the bomb are hard to predict but among likely consequences
are incorrectly calculated wages, pensions and social benefits, the failure of
commercial and private motor vehicles whose engines are controlled by
small computers and the collapse of telecommunications systems.

The details of the study were published in the UK magazine Computer
Weekly. Mr Emery said most current research on the bomb looked only at
the technological issues of finding faulty computer systems and correcting
them. Corporation 2000 was employing historians and experimental
psychologists to predict and analyse how people would behave when
social systems failed. The consultancy is attempting to create a database of
the world's cities most at risk from the bomb.

The problem is universal, but computer specialists have found it difficult to
persuade politicians and industry leaders to take it seriously. The
worldwide cost of eliminating the bomb has been put at $1,500bn.

Skylark: The most speculative areas of a market bubble are usually the last to peak. In the present case, secondary stocks and high-tech issues are the most speculative areas. As the topping pattern has neared completion these past few days, the relative strength in secondary stocks is a bearish indicators of a collapsing bubble. It's absolutely not a bullish sign.

Puetz re your 22:12, it's neither of those two, you misunderstood, the story had to do with "New technology automatically eliminates Apricot Pits".

I'll give one good reason why gold CAN lead the gold stocks: EARNINGS!!! You can't necessarily have more earnings without higher gold prices! Within this scenario, you have to first consider that 'stuff' is at bottoms. Only the increased price of stuff can thus 'drag' the stox up. Hey, that's why they are so depressed in the first place!

Dear Mr. Shultz, I see Pluto close to Your An... I mean Uranus and it's a BAD sign for the future intellectual capabilities of all folks living in cold foggy Isles. Watch for the planetary alignment in Y2K and then post again with info. on it's full implications for the sheeplike masses.

ALL: Thank you anyway. LGB: That rhyming needs growing, too, but thanks! TED: Thanks. I hadn't thought of asking in capebretonese. NICK: Good thing I decided to break the rule w/ my RYO yesterday...just a couple of more days till Monday's reports I kept saying.

LGB: In the probable case that my post intended for you was too complicated for you to understand, let me recapitulate in one short equation.

LGB = MORON

Now do you understand?

Oops "H", I apologize. After re-reading your academically superior post ( you SURE about that 15 year professorship?? ) , and taking a more careful reading of the planets, I see that in fact Pluto is actually IN Yer, Uh UrAnus! No wonder you're feeling so cranky! Now here in the states we have some Preperation "H" for that ( no pun intended "H" ) so get a large tube, pull down your knickers, and let's see the lunar landscape & check for the Full moon shall we?

As Bill Buckler's charts so aptly demonstrate, we Aussie holders of physical gold, platinum etc. are ALREADY way ahead over the last week. This is something I'm sure is not lost on our Asian friends with their large physical holdings while their currencies crumble around their ears. The price of gold does not necessarily have to go UP for you to come out ahead.

LGB: Watch it dude....Nikkei clawin its way back...down 290.53 ( 1.59% ) but dem stox boys!!!....Puetz: Stick ta football....

Putless: Only sink money into put options that you can afford to lose. With that said, if you're betting on a crash, a low-cost option ( under $500 ) is:

Small December S&P 700 put -- approximately 3 1/2 ( or $350 per contract )

If S&P falls from 900 to 800, you lose it all.
If S&P falls from 900 to 700, you lose it all.
If S&P falls from 900 to 600, each contract is worth $10,000.
If S&P falls from 900 to 500, each contract is worth $20,000.
If S&P falls from 900 to 400, each contract is worth $30,000.
If S&P falls from 900 to 300, each contract is worth $40,000.

I doubt the S&P will fall below 300 before December. I do think there is a great chance that it will fall between 300 and 500 by then.

Puetz: Maybe he booted one for the Cubbie's but the one I can still see in my mine's I is the ground ball through his legs with 1 out away from winning the series and the Mets won the game and went on to beat the Bo Sox and win the series after being down 3-1. Billy B was a good ballplayer but he can't live down that one mistake. He says that he can't go anywhere that people don't remind him of it. I guess like Yogi "it ain't over til it's over" and then it's too late. Kinda like trying to figure out what gold's gonna do.

Litigation: Avoiding a legal minefield

WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 10 1997

Paul Taylor on a nine-point checklist could help companies with Year
2000 computer problems avoid the expense of litigation

As many companies have found, the implications of the Year 2000
computer problem stretch far beyond the IT department and the corporate
boardroom.

The legal aspects have begun to attract the attention of lawyers such as
Adam Taylor, a London-based partner with Withers' specialist IT litigation
group.

Mr Taylor has produced a briefing note on Year 2000 issues which
provides the following nine-point checklist:

* System review. If they have not already done so, companies should
carry out an urgent review of their computer systems to see whether they
are millennium-compliant. It may be preferable to replace the entire system
than try to adapt it.

If this is not a viable option, companies will need to concentrate on
software correction.

* Legal audit. Before spending vast sums on compliance, a legal audit
should be carried out by lawyers familiar with computer contracts. It may
be that a maintenance contractor or, if the systems are contracted out, a
facilities manager will be obliged to carry out the work under an existing
contract. Alternatively, suppliers or consultants may be obliged to provide
compensation, at least in part.

* Restrictions on self-help. Companies ought to be aware of how far they
can go in doing the work themselves. For example, a software licence may
prohibit "decompilation" to obtain the source code.

This is potentially very serious because if a customer breaches a software
licence, the supplier could terminate the licence and require the company to
return all copies of the software.

* Negotiate from strength. A company should seek to work with supplier,
maintenance contractor or facilities manager. Litigation, advises Mr Taylor,
is very much a last resort, but it can be used as an effective threat if a
supplier proves unco-operative.

If there is a possibility that your supplier is legally responsible, you may be
able to use this to negotiate a substantial contribution towards the costs of
achieving compliance.

However, be careful not to inadvertently give up any legal rights that could
be exercised in the event of a systems failure.

* Time limits. The time limit for suing for breach of contract is six years
from the date of the breach. In relation to "millennium meltdown", the
relevant date will probably be when the software was supplied, or possibly
upgraded.

So it may be too late if you wait until 2000 to take legal action. There are
other possible bases for suing and other time limits which may apply in
certain cases. "We are advising our clients that, where time is an issue, it is
prudent to 'stop the clock' now, either by agreement or by issuing a
'holding writ'," Mr Taylor says.

* Insurance. It is doubtful that business interruption policies will cover the
millennium problem. But companies should in any case check their policies
and take steps to protect whatever rights they may have.

* 'Year 2000' clause. Companies should ensure that all new agreements to
supply computer equipment or software contain a clause guaranteeing
millennium ( and leap year ) compliance.

* Minimise liabilities. Where appropriate, companies should try to insert a
clause in commercial contracts excusing them from contractual obligations
in the event of a millennium crash.

It is unlikely that the customary "act of God" or "force majeure" clause
would cover this situation, says Mr Taylor. Conversely, check whether
other businesses, such as potential trading partners or takeover targets,
have millennium compliance problems which could rebound on you.

* Duties of directors. Directors owe a duty of skill and care to the
company. The standard will vary depending on the position of the director.
On this issue, IT directors will owe higher duties than others.

In Britain directors are not liable for mistakes, but they are liable for gross
negligence. They should have no problem if they move reasonably quickly
to take appropriate steps towards compliance and legal protection.

"If, however, directors take no action they could be guilty of gross
negligence," says Mr Taylor. "In short, whatever you do, do not do
nothing."

ELDORADO: That's exactly why I'm into some golds now. They just can't go that much lower ( unless your main tunnel caves in like Siskon Gold's ) . Call it an asymptotic point or whatever. And there's support for gold at a level for the first time in a long while. At these price levels the upside outweighs the downside.

All... Lots of interesting posts today...Sorry I haven't had time to jump into any of them....ANYONE interested in a fairly large lot of modern proof sets and commerative coinage ????? High 4 figures at 5% above "bid"....Lots of silver and some gold....

Don't get mad...I was working...I use Datek and also Tradefast. Datek seems more reliable as far as access and log on. Datek has easy to read daily charts ( real time and not too delayed, I think, but I could be wrong about that. They do not do options but supposedly coming soon. Tradefast does options and has option pricing. I don't do options ( I am studying first ) . Apparently you can only buy/sell at end/beginning of day with Tradfast options trades. That doesn't seem right. All things being fairly equal, datek is cheaper and easier to use for me. I maintain the tradefast account for when ( future ) I feel better about doing some options. I went to the library and out of several hundred books only found ONE thin paperback on options. Mosy of them were buy&hold/mutual fund stuff.

Hi Cherokee.....headphones tightly strapped on,remembering days "long gone"....

Dec gold bounced off the short term trend line formed by the previous highs. Now it looks back at the 325.5 area as 'support'. Presumably it won't get that low, but one must expect it to be able to happen, just like silver today. Failure of these levels and previous recent lows CAN lead to much lower lows! Probably of the same order of magnitude. Just be aware and beware! Alternately, this could simply be the bare beginnings of 'something' more major. Just pay attention to 'details'!

Thank God for Watcher!!! Bravo matey....

Earl -- I can wish can't I? I've been playing around with so many indicators and retracement studies in the last few hours that... I've convinced myself that I'm going to be rich! The problem is this poverty thing induced by owning gold shares. :- ) )

*************THIS HAS 16 PAGES OF INFORMATION******************
Page One

UWSA FEDERAL RESERVE ACCOUNTABILITY NATIONAL TASK FORCE

PO Box 081335 Racine,WI 53408-1335

The Enemy From Within II

Re: ** FED-UP ** By: Thomas D. Schauf ( 1992 )

Task Force Colleague . . . . . . . . . . . . . . September 9, 1995

http://www.moneymaker.com/frb/page01.htm

My goodness Steve, no WONDER you won't take my bet against your crash, even WITH my giving you 2 to 1 oods. Yer gonna make $20,000 to $40,000 dollars on that $500 I wanted to bet you!! ( Remember folks, only take Puetz's Put advice on money's you can well afford to LOSE!!! )

PS, re your earlier post on Nasdaq strength. How come every time DOW drops and Nasdaq shows strength it's a "Bearish" sign? When a market sector shows strength that's "Bearish?" ??? Hmmm, where have I heard that before about the DOW. Oh I remeber now, at DOW 2000, and 3000, and uh 4000, and yes 5000, hmmm 6000, and even 7000!!! Even MOI jumped on that bandwagon at 8000!!!! But not for long Puetz, not for long, gimme 7100 or give me death I say! ( Eagerly licking my chops on teh sidelines... )

Front -- I like my charts on my 17 inch monitor :- ) As for the posting size, I'll have to see what this so called graphics program can do in regards to scaling things... No guarantees though. :- )

August retail sales EXPECTED to be up 0.7% ...August PPI EXPECTED to be up 0.3% ....Hi Panda! clear,with moon shimmerin on a calm ocean...ain't HM lookin cheap....and I see NEM bounced off 40.....

Reinventing Central Banks
In a More Sensible Economy, They Would Be Facilitators, Not Power Centers
By Shann Turnbull

History has shown that central planning doesn't work over the long term. Eventually, the same conclusion will be reached in regard to central banking, which is simply a specialized form of central planning.

The experience of history is quite different, however, in the case of decentralized banking.

The industrial revolution was financed by decentralized banking. It enabled Japan and the U.S. to enjoy rapid growth at the turn of this century without reliance on foreign investment.

Credit was likewise once created in the same decentralized fashion, allowing labor, materials and other resources to be allocated efficiently to foster growth, diversity, choice, and specialization for competitive advantages.

Central Banks, by contrast, were created and developed for the sole purpose of funding governments.

The Bank of England, founded in 1694, obtained a Royal Charter on the condition that all the sterling silver invested as equity was lent to the Sovereign at interest. Against the security of the Sovereign's promise to pay back the silver, paper money was printed and lent out at interest. The shareholders earned double interest on their equity investment!

It quickly occurred to bankers that they could print many more notes than were backed by the worth of the silver or gold which they kept in their vaults or which someone had promised to repay. This duplicity is the basis for modern banking.
http://www.worldcitizen.org/issues/augsep96/reinventing.html

Now boys, I enjoy your posts immensely, especially yours Mr. Sheller. But this bickering has got to stop. Now Mr. Schultz, although you have a valid point, I feel you should apologize to Mr. LBJ. He's hurt by your directness about him being a moron and all. And you, Mr. LBJ should... well there really is no excuse for you. By the way.. I thought you were dead and gone from all that drinking and women chasing. Shame on you!!!

Shek: Howdy! It is amazing how rowdy this place gets after one measly little $3 move up in gold. If the DOW gets down around 7500, look for the "rescue" team to move. Wake me up when gold gets above $340.

If you guys are gonna insult LGB, at least spell the words right. Imbosile indeed. It's Imbecile, Mr. college prof. and no I'm not on his side, he's doing just fine all by himself!

LGB yoo havenosense at all an no education.I bet yo have no degree an has never taut colleges like westminster me done an slo yo moronic = lgbr Ill win next Revolation war like & we have skirtz here you moron Embosile ic Idioot like a Frenchperson Butball. Get smart like whot then yoo wiper of anlysizz orificezzz.

Vronsky -- Hope springs eternal in my bokerage account. Unfortunately, my brokerage account does not grow in the same mannor as do my hopes for it. :- ) ) A sense of humor is essential. I keep on telling myself that..

I may regret saying this, but it sure looks vaguely reminiscent to the '96 run up in gold. The general market stalled out and gold rose for about four to six weeks. Given the 'new' found concern over the Asian currency problems and the WSJ article on gold yesterday, perhaps contrarians are entering the frey now.

Although the short term trend for gold is still bearish, the long term trend for gold has just turned bullish. This is the first time that the long term trend for gold has turned bullish since at least the first of this year. The XAU remains bearish short term and bullish long term and appears to be bottoming both long and short term. The crb is long term and short term bullish and is currently over sold.

TGIF on "far east coast"...dec. gold down .50 @ 326.10

How Central Banks Manage - Financial Crises - An Address - by
E. Gerald Corrigan
Chairman, International Advisors
Goldman, Sachs & Co. ...October 25, 1995....Shanghai, China

The Final Ten

1.The presence of a strong and appropriately independent central bank that relies, to the fullest extent possible, on indirect monetary policy instruments for the conduct of monetary policy;

2.Broadly distributed private ownership of banks and other major financial institutions;

3.The absence of internal or external credit controls;

4.Market driven interest rates for both loans and deposits;

5.A unified foreign exchange rate system, whether the exchange rate mechanism itself is fixed, floating, or something in between;

6.The presence of efficient, effective and highly liquid money, equity and debt capital markets, starting with state of the art inter-bank and national government securities markets;

7.Efficient, safe and trusted payment, delivery, and settlement systems that ensure the finality of transactions and payments in the shortest time frame possible;

8.Transparency in all things, especially market practices and public disclosure;

9.Equal treatment for foreign and domestic institutions;

10.A strong but flexible system of prudential supervision of markets and institutions.

Achieving all that is implied by any one of these traits -- much less all of them -- is a long and difficult process and even then, surprises and shocks will occur. When they occur, central banks must provide leadership and be ready to act appropriately. The suggestions contained in this
address -- coming as they do largely from the school of hard knocks -- may be of some help in framing approaches to surprises and shocks when they occur. But, at the end of the day, it is that great intangible of the credibility of the central bank and its leaders that will be decisive. That is why continuity, competence, independence, and integrity in the ranks of the international community of central bankers is so crucial.
http://www.gs.com/about/speeches/shanghai.html

Yellow Jacket -- I don't do stocks. TOOOOO many knowns only after the fact. I do futures only, aside from holding physical in the metals. The only thing I need to look at is the current chart. I suppose stocks can be seen in the same fashion, and traded in a fashion in the same way, but I like my almost immediate buy/sell executions, and my low commission fees! I also like 'volatility in price'! Perhaps I just don't know enough about the time 'execution' of orders on stocks. To me, currently, they are not easy to know or trade and thus are a bit scary to me! Therefore, I just say 'no'. But, I will not denegrate anyone who feels comfortable with dealing with them! I will only say that you have a lot more patience than I do. Go for it!

Pardom me Grandma, I'll quit wasting bandwidth now as you requested. BTW, it's LGB, not LBJ. "LBJ" is a dead President, or it could also stand for something I had done for me earlier today.....

Do you want your head blown off?

Yellow Jacket, TED -- I don't use DATEK. I use Schwab and am trying to switch to Regal, but there appears to be problem with Regals On-line service? Perhaps I will revert to the tried and true telephone and voice box method. :- ) )

TED -- Howdy! Amazing what a little chart can do. Excuse me Front, I mean, a BIG chart can do. :- ) )

Someone mentioned something about LGB. Did he post something good here recently? Gee, I must have missed it or something. Is there a particular time that is worth scrolling back for? Damn squelch button anyway!

Nick -- We've had so many failures and breaks to the downside, that I fear if a breakout were to materialize, no one would come to the party! :- (

LGB: I don't want to continue this ridiculous exchange of comments, so this will be my last to you. I empathize with your state of mind stupor and vindictive proclivities ( common among the ignorant ) , but I don't understand your obsession with the human anus. Were you physically molested as a toddler and acting out your childhood trama or perhaps you're expressing your unconscious sexual fantasies that you keep "hidden in the closet".

There is hope for cases like you. I suggest you contact a very experinced psychiatrist with alot of patience and understanding.

Good luck with your affinity for stanger's anuses. And Good Ridance MORON!!!!!!

Market's taking a pounding, currently Australia -.8%, China -.68%, India -.88%, Indonesia -1.78%, Japan -1.59%, Malaysia -.63%, Singapore -.47%, and Thailand -1.13%.... BUT take heart Oversaeas fund investors, all this is offset by the fact that PAKISTAN is UP .14%!!

And the investment wisdom point of your 23:07 was what again El?? I've posted more investment relevant advice with my little finger today than you posted all month!! ( OK, sorry, it's just those damned metals being so confounding..has me all Feerusterated and all )

LGB--LBJ-HAR! Think my LBJ was was when Gold dropped to 3-2-5! Ted--Indeed HM looks cheap! I never pulled the trigger on that HM Jan 98 Strike Price 15, but gettin' REAL itchy!

Puetz -- Remember Steve, they throw the babies AND the bath water out in that building on the corner of Broad and Wallstreet! The selling had the feel of panic to it today. Then, as all 'Bipolar' personalities do, they did an about face and bought back most of the stocks that they had sold off a few hours earlier. They ( fund managers ) must running low on Prozac or developing a tolerance to the stuff! BTW, saw a DJN headline today about Magellan fund. It seems that they are down to about 3.6% cash or so. 96% in stock? Apparently with a heavy weighting in the technology sector. Can you imagine redemptions... On the other hand, it'll never happen. :- ) )

What's the old saw about your stocks going up, only to have no one left to buy them?

Re your latest "H", I took your advice and sought professional advice. Consulted the authorities and they confirmed that yes, sure enough, some guy who thinks he's a "Professor" had escaped a London mental institution. They assured me they'd be on the lookout for him, and nab him soon, so I feel safe now.

As to trading barbs, I too have lost interest, I mean you never even came up with a good line about my mother or anything. If I'm going to engage in a war of insults, I like the opponent to at LEAST make a half hearted effort! Anyway, insults are a waste of bandwidth and I promised Kitcoites I'd be on topic so no more baiting me from the Asylum's computer terminal OK?

LGB -- Oh, there you are. So you've posted investment advice over the past month. I wonder who might have profitted by it. I, for one, have found my eyes glazing over. Must be that damn 'squelch' button! Did I miss anything important? NO, don't answer that! My eyes will glaze over again! Damn squelch button anyway!

WATCHER: THANKS! We'll see how Datek works. About derivatives, first check out http://www.futuresmag.com. Regarding books, I just finished my MBA and my last course was on derivatives. The book was "An Introduction to Derivatives" by Don M. Chance published by Dryden Press. If you are the studious type, it really is a great book. It's definitely not a paperback cookbook. And it's not cheap. It'll run about $70, but probably well worth it if you're really serious. Any good bookstore should be able to get it for you, or you can try http://www.amazon.com. You may want to try Amazon anyway and see what other books a search on "derivatives" yields.

Perhaps you think your 22:30 was clever, maybe even humorous. You ask people to listen and the best you can do is knickers and ointment jokes? Didn't have to consult divine inspiration for those, did you? I can hardly wait for the fart jokes. Please do not take this as a challenge, as I will not be drawn into sophomoric bickering, but sometimes a thing demands to be said and I just said it

Tomorrows' economic calendar;

http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/newsroom/calendar.html?source=core/dbc

Good night all. Remember, 8:30 A.M. sharp! :- )

Why not buy eagles? The face value on 1 oz. silver eagles is 1$. The face value on 1 oz. silver maple leafs is 5$. If you buy maple leafs for 5$ they will never be worth less than 5$ ( canadian ) . If you are using the coins as face value loan collateral you can get 5 times as much silver using maple leafs as collateral than you can using silver eagles.

This is how it works.

1. Go to Canada
2. Borrow 100,000 dollars canadian
3. Buy 20,000, 1 oz. 5$ canadian silver maples leafs for 5$ each.
4. Give to coins to bank as full cash collateral for loan
5. Eat the interest on the loan while waiting for silver to go up to
say 8$ per oz.
6. Sell your 20,000, 1 oz, 5$ silver maple leafs for 8$ per oz. for a
total of 160,000. Pay off 100,000 loan and pocket the remaining
60 grand ( minus a few months of interest on the 100k ) .

FYI: here's a little table of what your 20,000 oz. of silver ( 100,000$ face value ) will be worth given various spot silver prices:

Silver
( $ per oz. ) value ( * ) profit
------------------- -------------------- ---------------------
5.00 100K 0
6.00 120K 20K
7.00 140K 40K
8.00 160K 60K
9.00 180K 80K
10.00 200K 100K
12.00 240K 140K
14.00 280K 180K
16.00 300K 200K
18.00 340K 240K
20.00 400K 300K
30.00 600K 500K
50.00 1M 900K

* value = higher of face vs. spot. coins will never be worth less than
100K face value.

P.S. My personal prediction is you'll see silver between 12$ and 18$ per oz. within the next 12 months.

Steve Puetz - What is a Small December S&P 700 put?

Is this the new Mini S&P?

How does this compare to a Large December S&P 700 put?

C.V. Compton Shaw -- Your 'scenario' sounds about right to me, baring an 'event', of course. However, I'll play the futures as they 'deem' to be played. Thanks for your thoughts on the subject!

C.V. Compton Shaw ( cvshaw@prodigy.net ) : @ 22:59 wrote:
Although the short term trend for gold is still bearish, the long term trend for gold has just turned bullish. This is the first time that the long term trend for gold has turned bullish since at least the first of this year. The XAU remains bearish short term and bullish long term and appears to be bottoming both long and short term. The CRB is long term and short term bullish and is currently over sold..


What does this mean? Supported by what? Or should I just take your word for it?

Just Learning -- Go to this site and browse around,

http://www.cboe.com/products/cs/csmenu.html#broad

I thought we were through with the "nonsense" after getting rid of hepcat. Both of you guys ( H. Schultz and LGB ) need to seek professional help ASAP. You H. Schultz - go back to England and you LGB or LBJ whatever ( Anus-man ) get a grip. Take your nonsense off this forum! You should both be ashamed of your childish behavior.

Nick, re: your 22:30 -- That's right! In fact, that's the main gist of it all! To PROTECT your wealth! Gold does not have to do more than offset the debasement of the paper to do that. Right on! Anything more is gravy!

LGB: Well played.

"nite all"......Can damage from MOT be contained tomorrow or will it lead to a rout??....seems like the gov'ment #'s @ 8:30 are crucial...eh Panda....

SKYLARK: Agree entirely with your recent post to Captain Bill. Gold equities lead at major turns. If bullion leads watch out. So this recent rally is suspect. That said, rising volume in many of the gold stocks does suggest that a GENUINE turn may not be far off.

H. Schultz - you been critizing contributors here at Kitco. Contributors that share their opinions. Can you share your thoughts on the current state of the markets or are you just dead weight?

Speculator ( response to LGB ) ( @USA ) : 23:27

OK let me see if I've got this right.I wanna' make some cash.. so the first thing I need to do is get a hundred thousand dollarsHmmmmm..I guess that is a pretty good way to start, isn't it?

As for your PS - by the way PS requires no periods after the letters - " My personal prediction is you'll see silver between 12$ and 18$ per oz. within the next 12 months."

You've got to be kidding!!!!! Based on what?

I'm sorry, I guess I sound pretty cranky, missed my cookies and nap today, but the last few days of crashing eclipses, petty barbs, and fart jokes have me dazed. As recently as a month ago, there was useful information to be found here. I would love to read just a little sound analysis backed up with facts. I'll keep my eyes peeled.