All:

The story out about new central bank selling is a good one. Since the last time we got one of these the price of gold subseqently plunged, the expectation will be for more of the same. The strength in the market of late argues against a plunge, regardless of the news. It is likely that this news will turn out to be a non event. If this is the case then it will be siezed upon as a positive, with the old 'ignoring of bad news line' getting some play. It may even embolden a few new longs.

A key thing to remember about the last plunge after the Aussie anouncement is that it never really happened. Yes, the price went down sharply, but it was not at all due to the announcement. The selloff came at the very end of the day on the Comex, many, many hours after the announcement. The real reaction to the announcement was mildly positive. The bear raid at market on close had nothing to do with the news and was just a fund taking a well timed shot. That the press tied the two events together, well, that's just the way it is with financial reporting.

Another feature of the recent environment is the collapsing volatility. Over the last 50 trading days the closing range is somewhere around $12. The significance of this decline in volatility is that any subsequent breakout will be may well be large. The system players ( ourselves included ) generally use local historic volatility as a proxy for risk. What this means is that on a breakout from these levels funds can be expected to take large positions because the measured risk is small. Of course if we break down, the same will be true. However, with a great many funds already short, a new downward thrust will have a hard time recruiting too many new players.

All:

The story out about new central bank selling is a good one. Since the last time we got one of these the price of gold subseqently plunged, the expectation will be for more of the same. The strength in the market of late argues against a plunge, regardless of the news. It is likely that this news will turn out to be a non event. If this is the case then it will be siezed upon as a positive, with the old 'ignoring of bad news line' getting some play. It may even embolden a few new longs.

A key thing to remember about the last plunge after the Aussie anouncement is that it never really happened. Yes, the price went down sharply, but it was not at all due to the announcement. The selloff came at the very end of the day on the Comex, many, many hours after the announcement. The real reaction to the announcement was mildly positive. The bear raid at market on close had nothing to do with the news and was just a fund taking a well timed shot. That the press tied the two events together, well, that's just the way it is with financial reporting.

Another feature of the recent environment is the collapsing volatility. Over the last 50 trading days the closing range is somewhere around $12. The significance of this decline in volatility is that any subsequent breakout will be may well be large. The system players ( ourselves included ) generally use local historic volatility as a proxy for risk. What this means is that on a breakout from these levels funds can be expected to take large positions because the measured risk is small. Of course if we break down, the same will be true. However, with a great many funds already short, a new downward thrust will have a hard time recruiting too many new players.

ACW: Price movements in gold and the gold stocks seem to indicate that the big gold sale you mentioned has already taken place. The article in the FT is ambiguous about the timing of the gold sale. Relatively speaking, with all the dumping, the price of gold has held nicely. What does it mean when bad news doesn't much effect a market?

ACW: Price movements in gold and the gold stocks seem to indicate that the big gold sale you mentioned has already taken place. The article in the FT is ambiguous about the timing of the gold sale. Relatively speaking, with all the dumping, the price of gold has held nicely. What does it mean when bad news doesn't much effect a market?

All:

Anyone out there know if India has ever minted a silver commemorative coin? Any chance of a 1 oz. Mother Thereasa?

Lets see. 1 oz. * 1.2 billion people .... That's 2 or 3 three times the amount of silver in the world.

All:

Anyone out there know if India has ever minted a silver commemorative coin? Any chance of a 1 oz. Mother Thereasa?

Lets see. 1 oz. * 1.2 billion people .... That's 2 or 3 three times the amount of silver in the world.

http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/health/091297/health2_28626_noframes.html

Time to stock up on Nov 98 beans et al.

http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/health/091297/health2_28626_noframes.html

Time to stock up on Nov 98 beans et al.

D.A. ( 00:04 ) : You beat me to that idea. I agree, with you, that the 'reported', imminent, 200T gold sale will turn out to be a non-event with little, in any, effect on the price of gold. That straw man has been used too many times. It is tattered, torn and need of replacement.

If that scenario proves true, it may also be an additional signal that mellow yellow has a bounce in its near term future.

D.A. ( 00:04 ) : You beat me to that idea. I agree, with you, that the 'reported', imminent, 200T gold sale will turn out to be a non-event with little, in any, effect on the price of gold. That straw man has been used too many times. It is tattered, torn and need of replacement.

If that scenario proves true, it may also be an additional signal that mellow yellow has a bounce in its near term future.

D.A., LGB, et al.
Here is a re-copy of a 'kitco-post' of mine, from 8/23/97: :

Date: Sat Aug 23 1997 22:58
David ( goldfevr@pacbell.net ) :
what do you think of the kondrateiff model of "52" years

i think this number holds a subtley powerful 'vibration & essence'

( forgive my woo-woo spiritual words/tinges; perhaps i've been in
so. cal. too long )

The Myan ( civilazation's ) calendars of 'some time ago', emphasized the number 52, repeatedly ..... ( -pun intended ) .

Our planet earth, takes 52 weeks to get back to where
it started from.

If we take 13 years times 4 we get ( = ) 52.

If we divide the "world" of economies, finance & industry,
commodities, food/grains, money/currencies, energy, and civilization, into 4 seasons; then earlier in our century
the following model of time-frames, might offer us some clues:

economic winter: 1929 to 1942
economic spring: 1942 to 1955
economic summer: 1955 to 1968
economic autumn: 1968 to 1981
economic winter: 1981 to 1994

economic spring: 1994 to 2007 ...... oops ! -

- That blows that whole theory, and model, all to hell !
or does it ?

That Kondrateiff rhythm of '52' never leaves me ....

We are living in an ( imperfect ) world ruled by "rubber-bands" ..
( so to speak ) ;
there is always the "accordian effect" ... of give & take, for every
ideal, economic-cycle-model, in all 'cycles' research ....

Perhaps, we've been "indulged" ( -for a couple decades ) ...a long,
protracted, credit-whoring, debt-grovelling "indian-summer" ...
-------------------------------------------

The winter storms are coming

i see them on the horizon
i smell them in my nostrils
i feel them
crawling in
from the beach
everywhere
all over our skin

winter..too long postponed
wrecks a vengence

D.A., LGB, et al.
Here is a re-copy of a 'kitco-post' of mine, from 8/23/97: :

Date: Sat Aug 23 1997 22:58
David ( goldfevr@pacbell.net ) :
what do you think of the kondrateiff model of "52" years

i think this number holds a subtley powerful 'vibration & essence'

( forgive my woo-woo spiritual words/tinges; perhaps i've been in
so. cal. too long )

The Myan ( civilazation's ) calendars of 'some time ago', emphasized the number 52, repeatedly ..... ( -pun intended ) .

Our planet earth, takes 52 weeks to get back to where
it started from.

If we take 13 years times 4 we get ( = ) 52.

If we divide the "world" of economies, finance & industry,
commodities, food/grains, money/currencies, energy, and civilization, into 4 seasons; then earlier in our century
the following model of time-frames, might offer us some clues:

economic winter: 1929 to 1942
economic spring: 1942 to 1955
economic summer: 1955 to 1968
economic autumn: 1968 to 1981
economic winter: 1981 to 1994

economic spring: 1994 to 2007 ...... oops ! -

- That blows that whole theory, and model, all to hell !
or does it ?

That Kondrateiff rhythm of '52' never leaves me ....

We are living in an ( imperfect ) world ruled by "rubber-bands" ..
( so to speak ) ;
there is always the "accordian effect" ... of give & take, for every
ideal, economic-cycle-model, in all 'cycles' research ....

Perhaps, we've been "indulged" ( -for a couple decades ) ...a long,
protracted, credit-whoring, debt-grovelling "indian-summer" ...
-------------------------------------------

The winter storms are coming

i see them on the horizon
i smell them in my nostrils
i feel them
crawling in
from the beach
everywhere
all over our skin

winter..too long postponed
wrecks a vengence

Regarding the recent discourse on Kitco civility, or lack thereof:

I may be counted among those who wanted to hear the last of Hep Cat. It was becoming impossible to accomplish anything here with his petulant whining and petty insults. The current discussion about LGB is fascinating, a few thoughts:

I believe I will find myself in good company here with those who mistrust the government. I am also an ardent supporter of the right to bear arms as this is the final true protection against tyranny. I am highly suspicious of granting any new powers to government and am always among the first to warn against incrementalism. A perfect if benign example of this is the seatbelt law in California.

About five or six years ago, California passed a mandatory seatbelt law. There has always been resistance to such a law by those that think neither morality, compassion, or common sense should, or could, be legislated. The supporters of this bill knew they had a tough fight ahead, so they pulled a sneaky trick that is becoming increasingly commonplace, mostly due to its incredible success. The theory behind this tactic is to push through this type of legislation in increments. The seatbelt law supporters inserted a caveat in the law that said a driver could not be pulled over and cited based on the fact that he was not wearing a seatbelt. The motorist would have to be pulled over for another violation such as speeding before the cop could also cite you for failure to wear a seatbelt. This law is OK, they said, you will only be cited if you are already breaking the law.

I was the only person I knew who did not buy this load of crap. I told anyone who would stand still long enough to listen, that once the seatbelt law was passed, within a couple years, the other violation caveat would be removed and police would be able to pull over anyone they witnessed driving unbuckled. My words were prophetic and as of Jan 1, 1996, the non-wearing of a seatbelt was a stoppable offense.

Like I said this is a benign example, but look at some other issues and you will witness the same tactics being used. The most obvious use of this legislative philosophy is the area of gun control. The gun banners have made no secret of the fact that there final goal is to push for the banning of all guns. They are simply doing it a piece at a time. First there was the ban against "Saturday Night Specials'. Which had the distinction of being, for the most part, poorly made and inexpensive. The next piece of the puzzle was to require a waiting period. Next, the banning of several different makes of "assault weapons" which are no different than many other "legal" guns except for the plastic parts. Because a gun resembled some military weapons, it was deemed an assault weapon. This truly became ludicrous when many guns with superior firepower were legal, while many of these inferior models were banned.

Enough about guns, for particulars ask Gunrunner, I'm sure he can inform far better than I. The point of the matter - which again seems to have taken me quite awhile to get to - can be summed up with the whole give 'em an inch, and they'll take a mile thing. And yes, this does have relevance here.

Some things are considered sacred to our society, free speech chief among them. In this day of political correctness, it seems as if all forms of offensive speech are on the chopping block. Especially anything dealing with racial stereotypes. People are loosing their jobs and having their lives ruined because they said something the upset another group. We've all seen the many examples of this so I will not belabor, but one can see many examples of our sacred spirit of free speech being held hostage to the fanatics who would have all people only say nice and fuzzy thing to each other. Where in the constitution does is guarantee the right to not be offended? If someone is an asshole, let 'em be one, don't put him in jail, or take his money, or close his business, or take his job, because he is a jerk.

When Hep Cat was banned from this site, a precedent was set. When LGB started to get on people nerves, the call, thankfully from a select few, was to ban the guy. Hell, why not, we did it to Hep Cat, it should be OK to do it to this guy. I find this attitude despicable and have lost permanent respect for those who jumped on this bandwagon. These are dangerous people, they are not content to live there own life, they want to control ours, and to risk repeating myself, I would like to hold forth my former response to these meddlesome folk: Screw you all!! I will not subscribe to your ideas of the way things should be. I have my own ideas, thanks. By the way, I wrote screw, but my feelings on this matter are a bit more intense and the word I was thinking, has no place here.

These same folks seemed to be pleading for a squelch function, so they will not have to wade through writings that displease them. This seems to me to be the true test of their intelligence. The three famous monkeys come to mind. These charlatans have no problem speaking their evil, but they refuse to see or hear it. By locking out other opinions, they limit their own store of information from which they base their opinions. These people will be making decisions without the benefit of all the information available, they simply refuse to look a some it. I would love to sit down to a game of poker with these guys, I would clean their clocks.

Those of you who want this squelch function, have it, use it, enjoy it. I have no respect for those that would shut out the world. Any opinions you might hold are ill informed at best. So. To hell with you all.

Those of you who follow my posts here, have seen silliness, information, strategies, and occasional snippiness. I apologize for none of it. Sometimes the only appropriate response is to let a person know EXACTLY how you feel. For those that will argue this, think about an hour long sit down meeting with Bill Clinton. Would any of you pass up the change to spill the rancor that has built up over the years?

When people make wild, irresponsible projections month after month and are proven wrong again and again, who then say "yeah, but" and follow up with lame excuses and new projections, it gets to irk me after awhile. When I have seen enough, I will sometimes call them to task, I may even insult them.............with the truth.

I am beginning to develop a dislike for LGB, I find his attempts at humor, and his insulting style juvenile. He thinks he is mighty clever, but he is far outmatched by many here. I will continue to read what he has to say, although most of his investment strategies are pedestrian at best. This is a guy that gets most of his PM info from coin magazines. I suspect his enormous gains have been vastly overstated. This guy would not last long in the real world.

I will always try to keep to the higher roads and mix my information with humor. I will occasionally become uncivil, as is sometimes my nature when patience has run its course. If any of you don't like it, squelch me all to hell, it will be your loss. I trade metals all day, its all I do, squelch the stuff you don't like, and you miss the stuff that you might need, and you deserve what you get.

The sanctimonious few who would try to control the rest of us will always end up with a slightly shorter stick than ours, and we know their measure well. For the rest of you that would like to live in some Rockwellian world of your own construct, you will continue to excel in your mediocrity.
By the way, all the platinum I bought for my clients in the last two weeks is in profits. I wrote it here first, anybody who bought when I did, made money. This is how you measure what is worthwhile in an investment; how much $ did you make. Insults and petty bothers pale beside this goal. Not all of my clients like me, but they sure buy when I tell 'em to buy, and sell when I tell 'em to sell, because I make them money. When that stops, they will go away, regardless of how civil I might try to be.

Regarding the recent discourse on Kitco civility, or lack thereof:

I may be counted among those who wanted to hear the last of Hep Cat. It was becoming impossible to accomplish anything here with his petulant whining and petty insults. The current discussion about LGB is fascinating, a few thoughts:

I believe I will find myself in good company here with those who mistrust the government. I am also an ardent supporter of the right to bear arms as this is the final true protection against tyranny. I am highly suspicious of granting any new powers to government and am always among the first to warn against incrementalism. A perfect if benign example of this is the seatbelt law in California.

About five or six years ago, California passed a mandatory seatbelt law. There has always been resistance to such a law by those that think neither morality, compassion, or common sense should, or could, be legislated. The supporters of this bill knew they had a tough fight ahead, so they pulled a sneaky trick that is becoming increasingly commonplace, mostly due to its incredible success. The theory behind this tactic is to push through this type of legislation in increments. The seatbelt law supporters inserted a caveat in the law that said a driver could not be pulled over and cited based on the fact that he was not wearing a seatbelt. The motorist would have to be pulled over for another violation such as speeding before the cop could also cite you for failure to wear a seatbelt. This law is OK, they said, you will only be cited if you are already breaking the law.

I was the only person I knew who did not buy this load of crap. I told anyone who would stand still long enough to listen, that once the seatbelt law was passed, within a couple years, the other violation caveat would be removed and police would be able to pull over anyone they witnessed driving unbuckled. My words were prophetic and as of Jan 1, 1996, the non-wearing of a seatbelt was a stoppable offense.

Like I said this is a benign example, but look at some other issues and you will witness the same tactics being used. The most obvious use of this legislative philosophy is the area of gun control. The gun banners have made no secret of the fact that there final goal is to push for the banning of all guns. They are simply doing it a piece at a time. First there was the ban against "Saturday Night Specials'. Which had the distinction of being, for the most part, poorly made and inexpensive. The next piece of the puzzle was to require a waiting period. Next, the banning of several different makes of "assault weapons" which are no different than many other "legal" guns except for the plastic parts. Because a gun resembled some military weapons, it was deemed an assault weapon. This truly became ludicrous when many guns with superior firepower were legal, while many of these inferior models were banned.

Enough about guns, for particulars ask Gunrunner, I'm sure he can inform far better than I. The point of the matter - which again seems to have taken me quite awhile to get to - can be summed up with the whole give 'em an inch, and they'll take a mile thing. And yes, this does have relevance here.

Some things are considered sacred to our society, free speech chief among them. In this day of political correctness, it seems as if all forms of offensive speech are on the chopping block. Especially anything dealing with racial stereotypes. People are loosing their jobs and having their lives ruined because they said something the upset another group. We've all seen the many examples of this so I will not belabor, but one can see many examples of our sacred spirit of free speech being held hostage to the fanatics who would have all people only say nice and fuzzy thing to each other. Where in the constitution does is guarantee the right to not be offended? If someone is an asshole, let 'em be one, don't put him in jail, or take his money, or close his business, or take his job, because he is a jerk.

When Hep Cat was banned from this site, a precedent was set. When LGB started to get on people nerves, the call, thankfully from a select few, was to ban the guy. Hell, why not, we did it to Hep Cat, it should be OK to do it to this guy. I find this attitude despicable and have lost permanent respect for those who jumped on this bandwagon. These are dangerous people, they are not content to live there own life, they want to control ours, and to risk repeating myself, I would like to hold forth my former response to these meddlesome folk: Screw you all!! I will not subscribe to your ideas of the way things should be. I have my own ideas, thanks. By the way, I wrote screw, but my feelings on this matter are a bit more intense and the word I was thinking, has no place here.

These same folks seemed to be pleading for a squelch function, so they will not have to wade through writings that displease them. This seems to me to be the true test of their intelligence. The three famous monkeys come to mind. These charlatans have no problem speaking their evil, but they refuse to see or hear it. By locking out other opinions, they limit their own store of information from which they base their opinions. These people will be making decisions without the benefit of all the information available, they simply refuse to look a some it. I would love to sit down to a game of poker with these guys, I would clean their clocks.

Those of you who want this squelch function, have it, use it, enjoy it. I have no respect for those that would shut out the world. Any opinions you might hold are ill informed at best. So. To hell with you all.

Those of you who follow my posts here, have seen silliness, information, strategies, and occasional snippiness. I apologize for none of it. Sometimes the only appropriate response is to let a person know EXACTLY how you feel. For those that will argue this, think about an hour long sit down meeting with Bill Clinton. Would any of you pass up the change to spill the rancor that has built up over the years?

When people make wild, irresponsible projections month after month and are proven wrong again and again, who then say "yeah, but" and follow up with lame excuses and new projections, it gets to irk me after awhile. When I have seen enough, I will sometimes call them to task, I may even insult them.............with the truth.

I am beginning to develop a dislike for LGB, I find his attempts at humor, and his insulting style juvenile. He thinks he is mighty clever, but he is far outmatched by many here. I will continue to read what he has to say, although most of his investment strategies are pedestrian at best. This is a guy that gets most of his PM info from coin magazines. I suspect his enormous gains have been vastly overstated. This guy would not last long in the real world.

I will always try to keep to the higher roads and mix my information with humor. I will occasionally become uncivil, as is sometimes my nature when patience has run its course. If any of you don't like it, squelch me all to hell, it will be your loss. I trade metals all day, its all I do, squelch the stuff you don't like, and you miss the stuff that you might need, and you deserve what you get.

The sanctimonious few who would try to control the rest of us will always end up with a slightly shorter stick than ours, and we know their measure well. For the rest of you that would like to live in some Rockwellian world of your own construct, you will continue to excel in your mediocrity.
By the way, all the platinum I bought for my clients in the last two weeks is in profits. I wrote it here first, anybody who bought when I did, made money. This is how you measure what is worthwhile in an investment; how much $ did you make. Insults and petty bothers pale beside this goal. Not all of my clients like me, but they sure buy when I tell 'em to buy, and sell when I tell 'em to sell, because I make them money. When that stops, they will go away, regardless of how civil I might try to be.

When the next 200 or 100 or any ton sale is announced, gold will fall. Count on it I have not budged one bit on my belief that gold will make new lows, and soon.

When the next 200 or 100 or any ton sale is announced, gold will fall. Count on it I have not budged one bit on my belief that gold will make new lows, and soon.

RJ, my I.Q. goes up a few notches whenever I read your eloquent prose. Thanks for putting in the effort -- I always appreciate it.

RJ, my I.Q. goes up a few notches whenever I read your eloquent prose. Thanks for putting in the effort -- I always appreciate it.

When London gold trading is overlapping New York or Hong Kong, how is the price determined in both pits at the same time?

ORGAN Do you know half the population of the USA has an IQ of under 100?
Each time your IQ goes up someone else's must come down.

RJ: Could you explain in kindergarten terms why it is that when one CB sells a large amount of gold and other investors buy it the price goes down a few percent? This is not the way other markets necessarily perform. For instance if a large fund sells 100,000 of T or GM and a thousand little people buy a hundred shares each the market will goe up and down dependant upon whether the two sides buy at market or set limit orders. But then stocks are very much liquid and what seems to work with gold would intuitively imply a lack of liquidity or freedom of the market. The movement of metal prices is all very confusing to one who has only recently started following it. And why emphasize the seller when one could just as easily announce that So and So BOUGHT 100 tons?

Say what you will about LGB, but you have got to give him credit for burning Sheller and all of the other purveyors of metaphysical KRAP. Yes, the market may be one of the complex ( in the true scientific meaning of the word, i.e. cannot be accurately solved with equations because the system is too dependent on tiny changes in the initial conditions and a myriad of factors ) systems on Earth, but it exists on Earth. We should attempt to analyze it from a rational point of view, using Occam's Razor to find the simplest, most elegant way of explaining what is going on. Astrology, remote viewing, cycle analysis -- this stuff is all hokey and LGB makes a strong case for concentrating on the facts.

That said, I cannot agree with the main thrust of his arguments, i.e. that his choice of investments were better than the bugs'. While clearly he made a lot more money than me, because most of what I have is precious metal related, I believe that he took huge risks by investing in equities at this time. On a risk-adjusted basis, his investments were not prudent. This market is in a full-blown mania, by any measure! There is no justification for paying 20% more than what something is fundamentally worth, unless you believe that a bigger moron will buy it for a higher price in the future. This is not prudent investing. Is the speculator shrewd for buying into a market in the mania stage, getting out in time before the crash? No, he is lucky. It just so happened that he got out before the trigger was tripped.

US retailers healthy in August; wholesale inflation under control

Retailers continued to ring up healthy sales in August and inflation at the wholesale level remained well under control, according to a pair of government reports released.

http://www.ebn.co.uk/News/#story5

ORGAN
Agree, with para one. Now what about the fin de sicle delusion of the predictive ability of charting, ain't that kinda like phrenology?
We hear a lot hear of head and shoulders, flags, pennents, wedgies ( sick ) , but I am unconvinced such are statistically valid.
Can always produce examples of failures of each technique and in multiple patterns.

So what is the simplest explanation? Give old Occam's razor a good strop.
It's entropy mate. Chaos. Village Idiot rules. All one can hope is to do as much fundamental research as one brain can handle, then, gauge the subjective feel of oneself and those around, faites vos jues, and go to the beach.

Well said.
Never give up your rights, they cost more than gold to regain.
However, I admint that I probably wouldn't be wearing a seat belt now if it wasn't for legislation

Mike Sheller @ 05:07 & 04:57
Bingo.

Neophyte @ 02:08
I have gone into some detail as to the effects of CB sales on the market in prior posts, but I will encapsulate here.

The main effects of CB gold sales are psychological. The amount of gold sold is too small to explain the drops on a supply/demand picture. There seems to be a fundamental shift in attitude of the CBs concerning the holding of gold. When one of the G7 steps up with big time gold sales, gold will fall. I have been telling everyone since June that Germany or Switzerland will be sellers soon. When that happens, look out below.

Organ
Congratulations on the alternative spelling for Occam's razor ( Variant of Ockham's razor ) As for the metaphysics: I see less harm in the metaphysical pronouncements from those who will call attention to their own mistakes as well as there success, than those at the other end of the spectrum who insist things will go a certain way, because "it just has to". Those that place stock in the more nebulous, will find much that is agreeable. Those that do not, will make their decisions based on other facts. I do not believe in astrology, and I think there are physical laws to back me up, but one must always judge the messenger in these matters as well as the message. Some are more benign than others.


6Pak @ 02:55
Profound

Gene @ 11:32
The best information I have on total CB gold holdings is 35K tons. This estimate comes from a 20 year international bank gold trader, I trust the source.

AE
It forced me into wearing the damn thing too. Funny thing though; I never, ever wore a seatbelt my entire life, until this law was passed. I wear it always now. Was pretty uncomfortable for awhile, but I wouldn't dream of driving without one now. OK, so they did legislate some common sense in me. The fact that it worked does not excuse the method.


Aurator
Entropy..I dig

With 35k tons at CB's disposal, can investor demand have any effect on gold price?

Time for real contrarians to buy a seat"

The London Stock Exchange's new electronic share-dealing system could hugely increase the volume of shares traded in London, make stockbroking into a loss-making activity, reduce the revenues of some of the largest financial groups in the world and replace million-pound-a-year stockbrokers with computer screens.

http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/v4374a.htm

Hey David: I read that a canadian bank did a study of the kondrateiff theory and "52" year cycles, and they came to the conclusion that the theory just was not valid at all. Kind of like the quote "For every complex question there is an answer that is simple, elegant, and wrong." But I do like the concept of trying to use long term economic models as predictors, broad cycles of course do occur but not in nice predictable patterns.

"Benguet Mines pit slope collapsed." It seems many mines lose big money by neglecting current procedures of rock mechanics. Did they have horizontal drain holes in the pit wall, did they have piezometers to measure the groundwater level, did they do a specific slope stability design on this wall, is it surprizing that this happened - I think that one might find that the answers to these are no,no no,no. sorry for straying off topic.

Letting RJ's prose ( bull shit ) effect your minds is is like throwing in the towel at his command, you have to be dumb to accept his opinions as gospel.
Be sure, that if gold falls to the levels that RJ foresees, that he will be a primary buyer and you will be the primary loser. Fight the bullshit and let both he and Rubin FLAME together. *uck them both.

RJ -- Your 1:21. I too decry the government taking our rights little by little. I do have one problem with the 'squelch button' problem as you state it though. I don't believe that many here, or perhaps any here, are particularly negatory on what 'some' say here. It's more that it is their chest-thumpimg ( deserved or not ) , constant whining, haranguing, excessive use of bandwidth on twaddle, etc, that many here would just as soon skip right over, having seen it already. Unfortunately, this can cause one to skip over something more pertinent. Ah well. I'm sure all treat the 'problem' as their own time and patience will permit.
Your views on more gold sales by CBs is still of interest on this site. I think that whenever you can post any new information on this potentiality that it would be beneficient to all here. That's the kind of news that's needed!

Jack -- Maybe it's BS, and maybe it isn't. The trend is as it is, and time will, as usual, tell all. All investors and speculators should be able to capitalize on whatever it does.

I will probably regret this, but here is my 2 cents worth--I think the squelch idea is a good one. This would allow each individual poster and lurker here to decide for themselves who they wish to read and who to ignore. This would not censor anyone, rather it would add more options for users of this sight. Also, it would end the discussions re Hepcat, LGB etc. which really are off topic ( such as this post ) . Now, how about them HM Calls?

RJ
Guns huh?
Give Bears right arms. Am generally in awe of the anarchic leaning of US constitution. But have always been puzzled by you "yanks" :+ ) insistance that your right to bear arms is a protection from your government.

NZ's per capita gun ownership is 3rd in world, behind US & Finland ( ? ) . ( With a standing conscripted army?? ) There are stringent/lax gun controls, but we just shoot anything unfortunate enough not to be sapient. We also get a little confused over what that means, darn it, half our population has an IQ of less than 100, including the sheep.
Although it has been suggested on this site ( forgotten poster, sorry mate-- 70's short term memory thing ) that the media manufactured the psychological effect of Australian treasurer Abbot & Costello on my precious....
The gold media are easily controlled.
Imagine the effect on the announcement of a sale of 200 tons by:
( a ) IMF
( b ) Switzerland
( c ) UKA
( d ) Germany
( e ) USA
on the gold price, no matter whether it is announced as a fait accompli like the aussies, or a possible intention, like quasimodo hashimodo, the bears are shitting in the woods.
Time to buy an umbrella.
I have several to sell.....

AURIC
Charles Fort on Squelch buttons....

fer shame

High dollar starting to hurt auto manufacturers? These are the guys who put the pressure on James Baker in 1987. His comments on their behalf are widely credited with being the trigger to the 1987 collapse.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/97/09/12/c_f_gm_y0_1.html

Australian analyst predicts deflation.
http://www.afr.com.au:80/content/970913/smart/smart3.html

RJ
Other puzzles for uz antipodean types tryin' to get a handle on this US thang.
How come you get all upset over seat belt regulation, which has proven to reduce accident costs, therefore insurance premiums, therefore more $$ in your pocket, YET you accept one identifying number ( social security ) so he state can always trace you ( and anyone else who cares to ) and blood testing before marriage ( a more intrusive act by the state I cannot imagine ) ??
It may be the wood and the tree thing, just watch out for popes.

It's BS. Of that I am sure. Why is it that most every news article relative to the primary precious metals is negative??????
Driving PM prices down, so those who benificate "WILL NOT" be those who have seen the handwriting on the wall has always been the case , and it 's troubling.
I call them elitists -in jest- which means to keep the power were they feel it belongs; they must screw us all. I laugh at their glorious intentions, fabricated for their benefit.
IMHO, when those who recognize the scam being imposed upon them come to power -be it by legal law or force- all hell will break loose. Head for your foxhole; and may god protect you.

JACK
It must be negative for gold bugs to prosper. Remember, it's not what they think, it's what you believe. Looking at my dry powder, not yet. GUM SARN

Jack -- The news is negative if it actually drives the price lower. However, it is EXTREMELY positive if it doesn't! But I would feel better about a big move up if the 'bay' briefly emptys out first! TSUNAMI!!!

Howdy aurator--Here is an awesome site for Forteana--it has it all-- http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/seeker1/fortpages/fortpages.html Enjoy!

10 Japanese life insurers being asked by troubled bank to convert loans to the bank into shares of the bank.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/12/z0009_9.html

Auric
Choice site mate!!

Jack -- And the New World Order crowd continues to march its' Nazi styled jack-boots forward towards its' Holy 'global plantation' Grail. What else do you expect them to do? They will do everything in their power, and more, to keep things going their way; Lie, cheat, steal and murder! We are all one big happy family, you know! HAR!

Eldorado, it is 22:42 13 Sept 1997, local time, what star date do you have:+^ )

Eldorado: The Austrailian sale drove the metal down, but no one knows where the metal finally found a home. Traders have to follow the trend; if the news says sell and everyone accepts the news ( bull ) , the choices are obvious.
When most agree that the news is slanted, why accept it?
I quess the best approch is to do nothing and destroy the messenger. I MEAN HIS REPUTATION.

Aurator -- I'm on New York time. Currently 06:57 AM.

JACK
News cannot be false. It is usually untrue. But that is not the same. Years ago I was inside, I saw my words and the words of others twisted by uncomprehending journalists into saleable copy. Once I got over believing I could educate these journalists, to understand what I was saying, in order that it could be accurately reported, and then got over the idea that it was not a conspiracy of stupidity, merely ordinary schmuks ( no offence intended to any fourth estate lurkers-- goodness knows, you ain't posters --- probably because we do this fer free-- and no meretricious journalist would waste a word without a deadline & a paypacket ) trying to make a dollar, today baby shows, tomorrow gold shows.
believe nothing in de press brothers in gold............

Eldo
Is late here, whadja mean man in yr 06:34, in de anguish languish pleze?

China sacrifices jobs for economic reform
By DAVID LAGUE, Herald Correspondent in Beijing

President Jiang Zemin severed Communist Party support for China's vast buteconomically stagnant State-owned sector yesterday and confirmed that unemployment will surge as a result of free-market competition.


Analysts in Beijing believe the party is prepared to risk more labour unrest to avert a financial crisis.

This is NOT the great leap forward, 20 Million people will not starve.Remember Mao "What's 20 million chinese more or less?"

Orient and occident....

http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970913/pageone/pageone2.html

Look at how we all get along. Isreal and the PLO, Northern Ireland, Serbs, Croatians and Bosnians, the former Russian Stans, not to mention Africa, even East LA. Eldo, the only hope for a New World Order is by force, but that will END civilization as THEY know it and the guys that run the NWO will never risk it. Their life is TO good as it is AND while buying their gold at spot on the LBMA. WHY RISK THE GOOD LIFE? CANNES, MONTE CARLO, PORTOFINO ETC. THEY WILL NOT RISK IT.

ORGAN & AURATOR: Now I'm rite diappointed in you two boys. Heer I was fixen to put a whole pile o' cash in both yo' laps, and what do you do? Yers come after me with a damn razor! Best be returning it though before this here Okham needs ter shave. I just would like to know, in yer sy-un-tific explanayshun, how I was able to perdict on Sept 5, before the markets opened, right heer on Kitco, that MOGN was the stock to watch on a Mars/Sun/Uranus conjunction ( no jokes, son, no jokes ) . Iffn' yew two fundeementalismists would take a gander, kindly, at a chart of MOGN since that day ( the chart is that funny little drawing with the lines and the squiggles what go up n' down, up n' down ) you might kinda detect the stock twitchin' a mite. I gets a crick in ma neck looking up when I looks at that chart, but, then, what do I know? I'm just an ol' shade-tree astrologer.

Aurator -- Case in point; Klinton signed the 'Illegal Immigration Reform Act' into law in Sept 1996. The legislation included the provision for National ID cards. Americans were assigned a National Id Card on Page 650 of Public Law 104-208, Part B, Title IV. After October 1, 2000, Federal agencies may only accept as proof of identity Drivers licenses/ID cards that conform to standards developed by the secretary of Treasury. This ID is to be used by federal, state and local law enforcement. It will tell who can and cannot be hired, at the discretion of the 'feds'. It will track everything about you.
You might also check documents within http://www.un.org that make it clear that the UN is very serious about disarming American civilians. The UN's draft gun resolution has already been endorsed by the Klinton administration and approved without objection, by the 54-member UN Economic and Social Committee. The pending UN declaration on firearms will be the first step and will lead to a UN convention on firearms that, if signed by this administation, or future one, and passed by our Senate, will become the law of the land, the 2nd Amendment to the Constitution be damned!
All it requires it a bit of looking to find ALL kinds of examples. I'm sure that many people also have prejudicial views on exactly what might constitute a Nazi style jack-boot. My views being very much like the founding fathers of this country, I can find examples everywhere. I'm sure Bart will not appreciate whole books on the subject being placed here!

Mike Sheller, heh but you is special. You believe, you back up your belief with a kinda quaint internally consistant logic, ( do not mean to patronise, or for that matter, matronise0 and youse a nice man. Besides, I looked out my winda tonight and I see Jupiter, Mars and Venus, Mercury was here last month..I wouldn't spend a single cent on the patterns, but they sure is purrty.

AURATOR: Ma mammy always taught me, "logic what ain't quant n' internally consistant, ain't no logic a 'tall."

RJ: You are right about the existence of physical laws. Metaphysics is the study of WHERE those physical laws come from. Einstein ( perhaps the most popularly perceived "genius" of physical law speculation ) was a metaphysician, an occultist, and a Theosophist. The foundation of all his physical world conjectures was inspired by what he learned from his study of conceptual metaphysics. Astrology, truly apprehended and studiously and properly approached, is but a small, practically applicable facet of Metaphysics. So, for example, Newton was an astrologer. Something he had to keep at a discreet distance from many in his time. Nonetheless, much of his groundbreaking revelations concerning physical laws came from the grand openness of conceptual thought cultivated in his spirit by astrology. But make no mistake. My purpose is not to "sell" or "defend" astrology. I say these things to you because, though I have specialized, in recent years, in corporate horoscope analysis, I cut my teeth on human beings. And they are very much more complex than corporations, yet, in many ways, far more predictable. Not having seen your horoscope, but having read your posts, I can say without a doubt that you are moving inexhorably to a study of Metaphysics in this, or a future life. I cannot, nor would I, make any comments on your personal life, but if you do not do something self-destructive on the Psychic, or Physical level, you will be eventually drawn to a Mental and Noetic level that will not be satisfied with the restrictions and pieties of linear physical science. Your soul is too large, and your spirit awaits your soul's capitulation to true magic. How presumptuous of many to think their understanding of this mysterious manifestation we call life, the universe, ourselves, is anywhere near complete. Or even rational. Our conceits are what bind us to illusion. Our "knowledge" of "reality" is what cages us in the dream of our own misconceptions. It is only a matter of time, my dear RJ, with your artist's soul in a linear world of bottom lines, eighths and ounces. It is only a matter of time that you will become one of us. For there is nowhere else to go, but onward, and upward. And yes, it is all benign.

Eldorado

G'Day.. There has been much speculation here on extraneous events that could impact on the price of my precious...Korea, Middle East, China, Khurils ( alright they've not been mentioned here to my knowledge ) S.E. Asian dominoes..

Perhaps your last post hints at another, even less considered scenario, but nonetheless, familiar to readers of Sun Tzu, what if the real threat is devolution?? Quebec and ROC. Scotland and England, USofNorth, South?
What do I know....The peril within.

MIKE SHELLER, yup,. Ike Newton was an asstrologer, but he was also an alchymist, the money he didn't lose in the South Sea Bubble ( 20,00 ) he "invested" in alchemy. Heh, he had the right idea, tryng to turn lead into gold, without stopping to think what would happen to the price of Au if he succeeded.
Newton was just a man, and if he had visited Kitco, he could have been shouted off like that cat person...

Anyone know Jon Kaplan's sight. He gives a good daily update. Reaction to threat of new gold sale announcement should be interesting. Question is how long will that dog run. I think gold price is determined in the derivitive mkt which dwarfs cash mkt and therefore is irrelevant. However, a derivitive raid coupled with the announcement ala Austrailian annoucement apparently is good in its effect of suppressing sentiment and price ie scare the buyers away. Opposite is support stks and keep the cash coming in. Remember things like the currency crisis are only a problem if the mkt price of our stks reacts negatively to the situation. NEWS FOLLOWS PRICE.

GOLDBUG 23:

The CBs can only control the gold price if investor demand remains depressed. If investor demand takes off, the CBs will unable to prevent the price from soaring. That is what happened in the 1970s.

With all the talk of actual and rumored CB sales, we should remember that the bell for the 1993 gold bull was bullion's failure to drop after several large sale announcements from European CBs. RJ could be right that bullion will plunge after the next CB sale announcement. But if the price holds in there or even rallies a bit, that will be signal to get long and FAST.

Mike, I know you will not crow about MOGN, any more than you have to. One swallow does not a summer make eh SKYLARK, KIWI?

Seriously, good on yer for a good pick...

PATH 04:12, could you provide URL or other reference for rubbishing of Kondrateiff??
Does it also apply to Jugler & Kitchen cycles?
Obliged to you.

Kaplan's site:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html

Summary of Greenspan Friday speech.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/12/z0000_z00_28.html

Mike Sheller you cut your teeth on human beings??

Full text of Greenspan Friday speech.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/12/z0000_z00_28.html

I hate to ask, but does anyone here follow the saga of the 'Fifth Column', the group of former CIA/NSA/FBI types that are delivering packages to politicians detailing the financial wrong-doings, etc. of said politician and suggesting that the politician resign? Is this just BS? Jim Norman, formerly of Forbes, is a name associated with this story. Any takes?

From Ed Yardeni's E-mail news:
The Year 2000 Problem is a serious threat to the global economy. Yet it
isnt being taken seriously enough. Ive been studying Y2K press and
official sources available to the public on the Internet for several
months. The more I read, the more convinced I am that some economic
disruptions are inevitable. In mid-July, I concluded that the
probability of at least a mild global recession in 2000
is around 30%. Now, I am raising the odds to 35% based on some
unsettling documents posted on the Internet by US and international official sources, specifically the US Internal Revenue Service ( IRS ) , the Federal Reserve, and the G10 Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Most incredible and disturbing is a Request for Comments from prime contractors dated May 15, 1997, which appears on the Web site of the IRS. The IRS unambiguously admits that unless they are bailed-out by private-sector partners, their computer systems probably will fail in 2000! ( One obvious solution: a flat tax rate system. )
For details see the first issue of my Y2K REPORTER, now available on my
Web site at my Center for Cybereconomics:
http://www.yardeni.com/cyber.html . I want to increase your awareness of
this important issue. I am still a Y2K optimist: I believe that the
adverse consequences of the problem can be minimized in time IF enough
of us take it seriously and move quickly and decisively to fix it and to
prepare for possible disruptions.
Ed Yardeni.


Finally, someone else is talking about the UNBELIEVABLE IRS document of which I talked last week in a post directed to Donald. It is getting more serious each day. Imagine what will happen to the US$, treasuires, stock market when people grasp the magnitude of what the IRS says in their document.

Bigfoot is coming out of the bog... recommends 50% cash position. DOW 5700-6400 seems to be reasonable price level at this time. Suspects Institutional selling:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger911.html

The GMS report on suspected CB sales of 220t of gold during the first half is old having been reported at least as early as Friday and has been discussed for some time as being likely on the street due to the failure of gold to rise with a strong first half demand. So what's new?

Challenge Data Finaglers, Necromancers & Entrail Readers:--

Connect Y2k with The final total solar eclipse of the millenium, On Wednesday, August 11, 1999, a total eclipse of the Sun will be visible from the Isles of Scilly, the Cornish mainland, Alderney in the
Channel Islands, ( not GSY ) and much of mainland Europe. Apart from Finland in 1990, the last total eclipse in Europe was in 1961; and not since 1927 has the United Kingdom mainland seen a total eclipse.


All that is now
All that is gone
All that's to come
and everything under the sun is in tune,
but the sun is eclipsed by the moon.

--Excerpt from "Eclipse," Pink Floyd, The Dark Side of the Moon

http://iphcip1.physik.uni-mainz.de/Astro/eclipse99/other.html/

AURATOR: G'Day Mate, I also do my best work at the beach.

liberties lost, and,----- at what cost?

read "how to acheive personal and financial privacy in a public age"
by mark nestmann

when the herd awakes, and finds the corral completed and the bit in
their mouth, it will be too late. the enclosure is almost completed
and is added to daily. when done piece by piece, over an extended
period of time, a cursory glance from the intended victims is all
that can be expected.

look around. look back into time. what has happened? to whom?
for what reasons? where are we now relative to flux and chaos?
our food supplies ( grains ) are at historical lows. our recent wheat
harvest was so poor ( quality ) that 50% or better will not be fit for
human consumption. can our great country, the bread-basket of the world,
ever see food shortages or rationing? hell yes.

our current position is the direct result of the slime-sucking
nwo for lunch bunch! their plans have set into motion an inexorable
date with the cliffs and the 6 billion or so lemmings. the
march they started, has turned into a dis-orderly melee, with a
stampede imminent. mass-hysteria is not predictable and will
result in mob-mentality that is not rationale driven. the taskmasters
will have a category 5 safford/simpson hellion, that will be blown
across the globe, with no regard for borders or treaties or humanity.

decadence and morals aside, what are some OTHER attributes of the
politicos? in what direction is the us being driven? why? for whose
benefit? does the us have a viable national policy/aim/goal?
sig's are doing all they can to claim theirs is the way. gays in the
military, national health-care, chinese buying anything and everything,
etc......

there is nothing of ANY substance coming from our elected officials.
the sails are luffing, and the storm cometh. for whom will the bell
toll? will it even be heard above the din and cry of those who
trusted the future and could not bury the dead past?

squelch button? hell yes---------do it-----------now----------
just another necessary tool, to swat the mouthy fools, that have no
regard for giants.

"if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have stood on the
shoulders of giants." isaac newton.

that is why we are here. the squelch will allow the giants to squash
the ankle-biters under-foot. this allows freedom of selection without
infringing upon freedom of speech. c'mon bart, where is it?
squelch, squelch, squelch ( lgb ) -----------------and on the eighth
day de-bart-man gave his partners in cyber-space the squelch. and
it was good for their hunger for knowledge was over-powering and
incessant. on the ninth day harmony was accorded those enduring
souls, as flies were swatted at every juncture in the name of
de-bart-man and the pm's. ----------mr. sulu, engage.--------


cherokee!; ) thirstin-for-the-lake-in-the-pines, and generator
of intansigent smoke-signals for the betterment of willy.
dotssmfatimm

Leverage is the vehicle that pushes markets beyond prudent levels. Once bull market reverses, leverage is the catalyst for panic selling. Short-interest level & NYSE Seats price bearish:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/puetz911.html

Skylark, G'day, seen any MOGN, swallows?
We got no owls here, they'd be asleep now as will soon will I, but we did have tha largest eagle yet found wingspan 12 feet way back in pre-historic gondwanaland.

wsf--

the fifth column has traced $$$$ to swiss accts. for
a number of us politicos. caspar weinberger had over
2 million lifted from his secret account by the fifth
column. they are using cyber-space to expose, and relieve
these dirty dogs of their ill gotten gains.

another kitco-ite posted a url that went into great detail
about their agenda and discoveries. vince foster was discovered
to be "playing" also. the list of "players" is incredible.
what is "really" happening is just as incredible!

WSF -- I've only ever heard rumors. Nothing more. Nor, do I really expect to. Those in the 'know' or on the inside could hardly surface, and those they may have 'forced' out are hardly going to tell! That's not to say I wouldn't like to hear more in the way of facts. If the 'group' is in fact real, they certainly have a lot more work to do! Wish they'd get on with it!

Donald, RJ, et al.,direct me to posts or awnser to the following: how much gold does the US hold ( Fort Knox and elsewhere ) ,how do we know for sure it's there as I've been told there's been no audit since post WWII days. In relation to our"ever fluctuating dollars outstanding", ( M1?,M2? ) ,what percentage, ( or fraction of a percentage ) ,is covered by this unaudited, seldom discussed sum of bullion. And now for some questions on some things I've read. Is it true that the world,s largest owner of above ground gold is none other than the IMF?,I always assumed that in just physical terms,the US was by far the largest owner. I read recently along with this tidbit on the IMF, that there is the posibility of some percentage of the new Euro being partially backed by this gold they ( theIMF ) hold,yet I read a discourse here on Kitco some time back that one reason the Euro would have problems in credibility versus the dollar was the fact that there would be nothing physical to back the new currency not to mention CB rate problems lending a hand in the equation ( I truly did'nt understand that part ) . Adrian Day, a fairly respected newsletter author wrote some time back that the new EU conditions ( charter? ) for inclusion of the new Euro dollar forbade countries, ( there CBs? ) ,from selling gold reserves to ballance their books for entry;that requirement of no more than 10% debt to GDP,or am I wrong here? Is it that they can sell whatever they wish but not include the proceeds in the final figures submitted to the EU? Adrian said these things in defense tword those who say this would help some marginal countries to gain entry as he says if the even sold every last ounce,it wouldn't be enough to matter ( i.e.Italy, France etc. ) . Finally, on the Privateer's page I read a discourse on something where the author said no country is currently, ( legitimatly ) backing it's currency with bullion. Is it not true that the Swiss back the Franc with 40% gold as included in their equivilent of a Constitution and that futher more, to change that percentage would require a National referendum, not just a parlamentary vote? The puzzled badger sits in his den,awaiting the eminent responses from Kitco's esteemed concourse of well skooled folk....

AURATOR: Not seen any many wise owls, but plenty of Gooney birds hereabouts.

AURATOR: "Newton was just a man." Heavy. You and I should only be such a man. "I see a bad moon rising." Creedence. TASTY AURATOR: ( Is this merely Aurator as dessert? ) I ALWAYS enjoy meeting people of good taste.

Food tastes great and there's plenty of it.

September 12, 1997
Grain Prices Drop as Crop
Data
Show Harvest Will be
Bountiful

An INTERACTIVE EDITION News Roundup

Corn and soybean futures tumbled Friday on
the Chicago Board of Trade after the
government reported that unfavorable summer
growing weather last month did little to reduce
ample production figures.

RJ: Great post last night. Seat belts, tobacco, guns, what's next? Ole WW wants my bacon bits and sour cream. I don't know how much more of this "kinder, gentler" stuff I can take. How can an investor with less than 50K make money on Platinum?

Cherokee, Eldorado-

My source is the web, specifically J. Orlin Grabbe. An interesting guy to say the least. I suspect your source is the same. I was hoping to find other sources, or someone who knows Mr. Grabbe, or something. I find the story compelling and hope beyond all hope that there is truth to it. If I were retired, I'd hop in a car and go visit Mr. Grabbe myself. Any of our senior friends here willing to do that for the cause?

I am going to go long the comex dec gold monday. Would it be better to do this in the Sunday night session?

comex -- You'll just have to watch the 'action' along with the rest of us.

speed---

never, never-----trust the future.

longfellow and most of the great minds of recorded history
have preached this mantra. the prices dropped due to
speculators speculating! actuality has nothing to do
with reality in futures. see you in the periphery of
the corono-sphere.

A search for the word, GOLD, led me to KITCO; and just like magic, I was guided to your delightful discussion group! I would feel a shade of remorse were I not to express my gratitude for what I am taking away with me - enriched from my brief encounter with the insightful contributions of its members.

Allow me to express my humble admiration for the Kitco site and the superb quality of its contributors. Bravo! Bravo! Hats off to Mr. Bart Kitner!

Gold bugs keep faith as it shant be long before your day in the sun. This I know to be true.

I perused the board - I believe you internet experts refer to this task as "surfing" - and am impressed with the caliber of information presented here.

D.A. - keep up the fine posts - trust me my dear chap, you sir are onto the money.

R.J. - From the little I've read, I've thoroughly enjoyed. Although I disagree with some of your ideas, you present a reasonable argument for them. It's true that the trend is our friend, but learn when to sense a changing tide. I hope that for your sake, you soon rethink your your logic on gold.

George S. Cole: It's good you're an independent thinker. I too share similar thoughts on gold.

Vronsky: Please keep the light on as I'm surfing your way to partake of your offerings!

Mike Sheller - Inspiring - I sincerely respect men of your character. Rare indeed.

A splendid visit for me to this gathering of energetic and bright minds. Remember my friends to enjoy each day and every day as life is precious and short; and of course be courageous and trust your heart for guidance - you shall be successful in life!

XOX-GS

Here is an excellent site for all kinds of info. Of particular interest--if you scroll to the VERY bottom of page, there is a real time countdown clock, measured in seconds, until midnight December 31, 1999. You can watch the seconds tick by! Now, there are just over 72 million, 500 thousand seconds left to go.

Here is an excellent site for all kinds of info. Of
particular interest--if you scroll to the VERY
bottom of page, there is a real time countdown
clock, measured in seconds, until midnight December
31, 1999. You can watch the seconds tick by! Now,
there are just over 72 million, 500 thousand seconds left to go. http://www.refdesk.com/

Mike Sheller Yeah, Newtown was just a man, and like all men, especially great men, he had his limitations. His genious was in optics, gravitation and mechanics, he just didn't know squat about the fallacies of the quasi-sciences of alchemy, prediction and astrology. A little like Lord Kelvin who proclaimed officiously that things could not fall from the sky, and that those peasants who had seem them were just yokels.

CHEROKEE, do you speak an english that can be understood antipodeanly?? I would like to understand what you jus said, I dont mind that you never listened to me before, you know, about that silly standing on someone's shoulder thing, it wasn't Newton, but, it gets boring to hear it repeated and repeated, and you know, he just didn't say that..

For those who might be interested in J. Orlin Grabbe, his home site URL; http://www.aci.net/kalliste/. He certainly has some 'interesting' material there!

Gold: Further big sale of reserves predicted
Upon reading your informative article this morning ( your afternoon ) , it left me a little
perplexed and ourtright confused.

Your article mentions that " Another big central bank sale of gold - of about 200 tonnes -
will be announced soon, a market analyst warned yesterday".

You also mention that Australia sold 167 tons so far this year.

Your final paragraph states, " GFMS, in its market update yesterday, estimated that in
the first half of this year net gold disposals by central banks ( INCLUDING the 200
tonnes still to be announced ) amounted to 220 tonnes".

The capitalized emphasis on 'INCLUDING' is mine of course. Simple math, says the
numbers do not add up. RBA sale of 167 tons plus the supposed to be announced sale
of 200 tons is equal to 367 tons. ( Russia's CB reportedly sold another 31 tons in August
bringing the total to 398 tons ) .

Could you please provide an explanation.

For your information, here's an excerpt from ( NEW YORK, Sept 12 ( Reuter ) wherein
they also quoted GFMS as saying "Official sector sales, including central bank sales
tripled to 220 tonnes in the same time
frame.". http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/12/y0023_z00_29.html

However on another article, by Ross Allen, Bridge News, Sept. 12, a Mr. Philip
Klapwijk, principal analyst at Gold Fields Minerals Services in London was quoted as
saying , "Although investors have over reacted to the threat of central bank sales, it would
probably take a significant rise in inflation to trigger a lasting shift from net short to net
long positions in the gold market, Klapwijk said.

Klapwijk said that gold's next move was likely to be on the upside due to the very weight
of short positions which currently dominate and would induce some covering.

The threat of central bank sales had produced an exaggerated response in the investment
community this year, and on the fundamentals gold was at present a good buy--especially
if talk of central bank sales proved "hollow." Without investor selling,
the gold price would not have pushed down to "anything like the present level," he said.

But "for a really serious move to the long side, what's probably needed is inflation," he
said in a presentation today entitled
"Gold investment: Fashion victim or dinosaur."

Mr. Gooding, the Financial Times of London is probably THE MOST influential and
respected publication in Europe if not the world and a such it has become respected for
their thorough, accurate and objective reporting. Stories published by FT are picked up
by newsmedia services worlwide and published as being gospel, affecting millions of
people lives. Please note Mr. Klapwijk, reference to" if talk of central bank sales proved
"hollow." .

In this case your article, could have a very serious effect on gold markets and investors
like myself and others. Could you please provide an explanation or additional
information, in lieu of the additional information which I've provided you.

Many thanks.

Cherokee, that's your 09:58, thank you

CURIOUS: Right on.

Thanks for the link.
Your generosity is the signature of a true goldbug.

Eldorado: Thanks for bringing the un gun confisication issue to light. I think many observers of the usa scene have long concluded that the "voters" in this country are not in control of many political events we see unfolding here daily. As the un gains more power over our lives perhaps we are being given a hint of where the power may reside.

Why must guns be banned? The founders of this once great country will tell you if you read their words ( do it soon, before the guns go, some books may thereafter also be banned ) . The words of George Washington are to me the most impressive. Guns must be banned because at some point too many frogs may elect to exit the soon to be boiling pot. The only way out may involve force.

The battle for the second amendment is raging at present. The opinion of the justice department ( some are calling it the department of coverups, you know those people who refuse to prosecute public felons and felons guilty of the gun laws already on the books ) is that there is no individual right to own firearms. Anyone not currently a member of the NRA may wish to think long and hard about becoming one, the right of citizens to own guns today is about a lot more than guns. Even if you do not own a firearm, please think about joining.

Public opinion is currently not ready for a complete ban. But that is not hard to arrange. How? Well I would imagine a crazy with a dozen 30 round clips and an ar15, turned loose in say times square would help. Lets see 360 rounds, he should be able to kill a few dozen and wound mabe two or three times that. That would get a lot of attention. At his trial, should the snipers get careless, he may refuse to speak ( whoops wrong disaster, sorry ) . One crazy is not enough, well you can always find more crazys. Maybe times square is not a good venue either, seems the schoolyard or a vacation resort is the way these things happen worldwide these days. To make a long story short however many people/children may die as is necessary to form the public consensus necessary.

Since it was the evil inanimate object, the gun, that killed these people we must remove all guns from everyone worldwide. Whats that you say the politicans and rich get to keep their guns ( bodyguards ) . The felons get to keep their guns. All worlds armys get to keep their guns/gunships/b2s/hydrogen_bombs/germ_warfare_agents. Oh I get it we can only kill those people who need to be killed, like everybody in two large Japanese cities. The private armies of some politicans/corporations killing their enemies is probably ok also. These armys never kill noncombants, unless it cannot be avoided. And God knows armys never turn their killing machines with billions of times the killing power of a "gun" on the citizens that pay their wages. Well we actually have seen that in several "backward" countries. But that cannot happen here in the good old usa.

Curious you are fartin' against thunder...see Skylark's comments yesterday about Jastram's conclusions-- facts not emotions--. Reason counts for nothing in some places. This is media control, and should be factored in not fought against.

Aurator: Excuse Cherokeeeeeeeeeeeeeee ( Woooops-got carried awaaaay! )

He's a self-proclaimed "Weenie-Wackoff".

No kidding, that nut actually said that in a post a few weeks back. That along with a bunch of other garbage that he regularly spues forth.

Cherokee - are you a true Native American or are you just disgracing MY people and our cherished name??????? Your words speak, "THE WARRIOR GOES TO COMBAT WITH NO WEAPON". Either the warrior seeks to end his own life, the warrior is only an imposter, or the warrior has lost his reasoning. I sense the latter two explanations apply.

Cherokee or Imposter?????????

bw -- And why not just that precise 'scenario' for confiscation. After all, hasn't that occurred in Australia? It would be interesting to hear if anyone said 'NO', and meant it!

BADGER: The gold stock number reported has not changed significantly for many years. It is $11,051,000,000 valued at $42 per oz. That is a total of 263.39 million oz. I think that is constant from 1971 but for sure it is constant from 1983.

...excerpts from Euromoney 'Turbulent times'
...what happens to the S. American banking system when currencies turbulence hit?

"Bank performance in Latin America mirrors economic progress, so it is Mexican
banks that face the greatest problems, with asset quality still poor and profitability low"

comex: If you MUST buy gold on 9/15, it would be best to buy at 11:59 p.m. on access. That way you can keep your money as long as possible. There will be no gold bull as long as Bobby Rubin is in charge. His front man, Der Slickster now has a 65% rating in the latest poll released this week, making him the most popular peacetime president at this stage of his tenure in the history of the Republic. Make no mistake about this: Bobby Rubin knows how to sell stocks and bonds. The stock market is indeed crashing----UP!

Five signs I'm looking for to signal a breakout in the metals:

1. For Spot Gold volatility to be compressed.

2. Volatility in gold shares to be high compared with movement in the
spot gold price. A sharp rise in the ratio usually presages a big
move higher by bullion as occurred in 1989, 1993 and 1995.

3. Dollar to fall against other major currencies.

4. Japanese demand for precious metals to pick up.

5. Australian dollar to gain strength prompting Australian producer
buybacks.

Speed: as we sit in the grease pits of the US there seems to be somthing strangely famillar about now and 1977-8. The price of crude is somewhat stable at $20 per Bbl. The price of major oil company stocks is climbing and splitting. The price of gold is going from stable to a free fall to new lows. The price of gold shares is in the drink. Domestic oil exploration is steady with the rig count slowly climbing. Each week there is a higher number of rigs turning to the right. Labor shortages in the oil field and towns are enticing workers from areas of the US where employment has fallen to go to the oil states. Seen a lot of out of foreign license plates in Houston? You know from places like Arkansas and Missouri. The expansion of the oil industry is being driven by people who know the oil busuness. Everyone knows the risk/rewards and greed has not taken over. Shoe salesman, stock brokers and doctors have yet to taste the black gold feaver. Gold peaked in 1980. Oil peaked in 1982. IF someone wants to read tea leaves or look at eclipses lets find somthing corelating these two. It is going to take somthing to trigger the rise of both of these commodities. I dont think anyone could know. Who would think some rag heads would attack a US embasy. And with the cahone less putz we have for a president I think when it blows up he will not have the stomach, like Carter, to put that country in its place. My grand father drilled at Glenn Pool and boomered in the teens and twentys. I can remember him saying a bust will last until the stupid ones go broke. I think the last 15 years have weeded the stupid ones out. Man I can smell a boom comming. Go Oil, Go Gold!!!

Maverick- I agree but feel it's important to mention also that gold should move in tandem with the CRB Index. The possibility of such an inflationary event may be what the weak long-term bonds are anticipating.

...by the same token, A. Gore , dropped to 34%, lowest ever & possibly out of running for 2000. One down one to go.
...the market lacks conviction. Artificial prodding in the last few weeks hasn't stopped the downdrift.

Chartists, refer to the double bottom of 7600 & impending upward move. Which stocks in the Dow index, are people going to buy?

Historical precedent suggests House Of Rothschild is buying gold hand over fist! See extensive analysis review of what the the Richest Family in the world is investing in now:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta909.html

bw/eldo/aurator: The rate of violent crime among the heavily armed segment of the U.S. population which is of British descent is approximately the same as the rate in the disarmed mother country. Ditto for gun-toting German-Americans compared to their cousins in gunless Germany---and all other Americans of European descent. Unfortunately, the rate of violence among our demographic groups whose roots are in the third world lands of the southern hemisphere is also comparable to the rate of violence in their motherlands. So, to all liberals i say, "If you take away the guns of law-abiding Euro-Americans, who will protect you from the hacking machete?"----God, Gold, and Guns-----

Oldman -- Do you like oil stocks here? Producers or explorers? Or will anything that deals with crude oil do well, such as refiners?

nomercy: Although he is terminally dumb, as clearly illustrated by the inane statements in his silly book, Algore is probably as morally clean as anyone in federal office. It may well be that the only illegal acts he ever committed were in connection with helping Slick raise money. For this he will now be run out of office to clear the way for Hillary to be the Demo nominee in '00. Ironic, isn't it? Mr. Clean Algore thrown overboard to make room for a woman whose felonies number in the hundreds.

Dave Keffler: I agree. I firmly believe it's just a brief matter of time before a sharp rise in gold based on the potential for a coming crisis of
confidence in the U.S. dollar and the subsequent dumping of U.S. Treasury bonds by foreign investors.

Foreign central banks have financed a very high percentage of the federal budget deficit over the last two years.

What will happen if, due to a confidence crisis in the dollar, foreign central banks no longer continue to buy dollars in the form of U.S. government securities? Higher interest rates, lower stocks and bonds, and higher gold prices.

Already we are seeing a slowdown in the growth rate of the Fed's holding of securities for foreign buyers. From a peak earlier last year, the growth rate has dropped substancially. Also, the dollar has recently weakened and the technical pattern of bonds appears shaky.

panda: The oil sector should be accumulated on pullbacks. I like the expl/prod, services and internationals, in that order. IMO, the only thing that can bring down the paper house that Rubin has built is trouble in the Middle-Eastern oil patch. With Netanyahu, who, whatever you think of his politics, is one of the few REAL men in power today, the possibility of such a disruption is real indeed.

Maverick: These idiots who think stocks and bonds will continue upward have some screws loose. Despite leaderships ability to peddle debt, a sea change is in front of our noses. The guys who can't see it are hopless SOBs.

The one month lease rate on gold is telling aa obvious story. The demand is increasing and the supply is decreasing. ( Hello - knock, knock, is anyone home?? ) The difference is being made up by the outright CB sales and leasing. This scenario is intensified by the current price of gold. Rather than supply increasing, it's decreasing.

The currency turmoil in Asia is creating additional demand for gold. Should gold continue to sell in the 320 range, the impact is a continuation of mine closings and increasing demand.

The Washington bureau ( rats ) will be caught with their pants down - maybe LBJ can get lucky! What do ya think, Maverick?

oldman -- Tell the gun-grabbers that and you'll only get a blank stare back! Then they'll call you a right-wing nazi lunatic, and such. HAR! But you are right! The Hutu and the Tutsi all over again, but BIGGER!

Dave Kefdfler: Agree w/ you 100%. But who's LBJ? You mean the dead president? I don't get it?

Dave Keffler -- WHAT! Klintox caught with his pants down again? What would Paula Jones say to that?

Maverick - no just a side joke about a nut on this forum that keeps calling everyone his son. A real SOB I tell ya. But never mind, better to let sleeping mongrals lie - wouldn't want to kick the Chiwawa if catch my drift - they're vindictive little creatures that keep yappin and won't shut up.

Cherokee: I see you are the a target of our pseudo poster who is attempting to destroy Kitco. Is it because you stated your opposition to this distruction? Stand tall warrior we who know your words appriciate you. Bart could we enforce somehow the rule about not attacking fellow posters?

Mr.K: My longstanding short gold position and the long i iniiated in Spoos yesterday, may mean I'm an idiot with loose screws. It may even mean I'm an "SOB". But it also means I'm becoming a richer SOB every day.

ps: I will never understand the mentality of people who cannot use this wonderful medium---the internet---for rational discussion and mutual enlightenment without resorting to name-calling and invective. One day a week of this is quite enough. Maybe too much.

Eldorado - I own your stock - excellent company. Don't kid yourself, Paula sweetheart loved every minute of it. She only became vindictive after slick dumped her.

oldman -- Thanks.

oldman -- New bumper sticker ideas: Anti-gunners are easy crime targets! Also 'Handgun Control' is NOT Crime control!

Oldman: I've heard you whine on this forum before - please don't start and don't flatter yourself either - My remarks were not directed at you. I was referring to the OTHER idiots with short positions and screws loose.

Maverick, re: your previous/earlier kitco post:
Where do you get your info., what source, for the Fed's holdings of Treasury paper, for foreign buyers?
Thanks,
David

Mr K: I don't think "whine" is an accurate characterization of anything I've ever posted here. Now, if Mr. P. gets his crash on Tuesday, I WILL be whining.: )
ps: I shall not address you again, because name-callers do not deserve any recognition from those who would keep the site civil.

Dave Keffler -- I've been on this site since the early days and I can flat tell you that oldman does NOT whine! In fact, He's been one of the finest posters to this site! I ALWAYS look forward to his insites to the markets, and anything else He cares to share!

oldman -- I'm too much of a goldbug for my own good! The reality is this, my brokerage account informs me that I should get my head out of the 'darkness' that it's in. In other words, it's time to buy what's going UP. The market in gold stocks has gotten so thin, that it's hard to make any money long or short. It seems that I get my head handed to me both ways. Liquidity, at times, is very poor. As a general proposition of late, it seems that when the broader market goes down, so do the gold/silver stocks.

The only way that I can see anyone making a thin dime on gold/silver/platinum/palladium is in the futures market. I don't have a futures account, but it seems to me, that's the only way to play the metals for the moment.

oldman -- Come back often!

Gotta go for now. BBL.

Agreed. Gore's squeaky clean image, is what helped the 'backroom' ( Rubin? ) sell Clinton to the American public. The facade is beginning to crumble, due to external factors which need to be addressed. Such as 1 ) Middle East ( Albright wasn't the smart choice, if they really want peace. But is the choice, if they want to let Israel back out of '93 Oslo agreement ) . This situation is explosive as the Palestines have/are suffering & beginning to strike back ( terrorism ) . Will it stop or accelarate?
2 ) China- This current administration is being ridiculed, and taken to the cleaners by the Chinese - both in exports/imports and more crucial technology & nuclear sales to China & subsequent rerouting to Iran
3 ) Rubin's strong ( too strong? ) US $ policy - has hurt Japan's economy badly - was it by design? - perhaps - but the consequences will affect the US as well. Its just beginning to unravel. Certainly US exports to that region will be curtailed & Japan might have to unload holdings of T-bonds to salvage their economy.
4 ) If currencies turbulence spill over to South America - the US major exporting market ( over 40% ) the game is over for Rubin & Greenspan. Can they avoided? What will be the impact of EMU or delay of same? Commodities are being manipulated by hedge funds. It is a dangerous precedent that hasn't been factored. The Russians are 'just beginning' to play & the Chinese have entered the arena aggressively, and their rate of expansion is greater than the US.
5 ) A recession will be devasting due to the increase debt load & risk exposure faced by Americans as they been 'brainwashed' by Rubin & co. It's now wonder they don't want to increase interest rates. The economy has been overshooting the Feds targets. Wage pressures ( they have to pay debts & credit cards spending ) will accelarate.
6 ) Technology has reached a saturation point in some aspects ei ) the 'con job' that Microsoft & Intel have undertaken in the last few years - larger programs, more memory, bigger hard drives etc. which basically do the same things --spreadsheets, & letters --- & improved communication--- has run its course & the growth will be smaller. They need EXPORTS. ( Microsoft is looking in other areas to keep growing, thus far the Interned has been a commercial bust in lieu of the investment --- they're now targetting Webvision -- will it be their Waterloo? or spring them further in the New Era. ( personally I think it's at least 3 to 4 years away )

Rubin & Greenspan ( by association & armtwisting ) have created a Financial monster of unmeasurable proportion. Americans are saving less, according to published stats & risking more ( market ) . Jobs are scarce in the high tech industry ( which proportaniately have fewer workers ) & more people are working part-time ( average $8K per annum ) .

The new paradigm theory better be right.

Eldorado:Gold will be dead until it starts to react properly to news. The "Richard Dennis" sell/buy signal is one of the few things that almost always works in the market. I.e., if a market reacts in the opposite way to the way it should react to news, it will continue in that direction. News that would drive gold up $20-$30, were it in a bull market, has been greeted with either a ho-hum or a sell-off. This must change before it can be called a bull.

Shek:

Your story re Ed Yardeni and the Y2K problem was an eye opener. While I must admit I am an optimist with regards to the eventual outcome, I don't think I've thought long enough about the hype and its effects. If the mainstream press starts getting antsy about this stuff, which they surely will, perhaps they will force a run into gold, silver and portable wealth, the likes of which has never been seen. People are generally motivated by fear and uncertainty far more than any other emotions. This story, regardless of the outcome, has the ingredients to get people really bent out of shape. It could well be that the greatest trade of our lives might be long precious metals from now to Dec 30, 1999 with a shortsale the following day.

Can any of you wise men explain the rationale of the CB's selling their gold?As I understand it they ( CB's ) can create money by order to the printing presses.Why would they then give up their gold?If it's to sponge up the paper flaot, than it does not make sense to depress the price of gold as they soak up less paper.just wondering

Oldman: As far as I can tell our Kitco site has been under active attack for quite a while. Someone desires that the information which once was the norm here be discontinued. Several means are being used. Foul language, incivility, multiple handles for the same poster and various other more subtle methods. You have a perceptive mind go back over the last 48 hours and see if you can discern this intent. Thanks.

Oldman -- I guess I'll have to become a 'dippie' and be content with looking at my coins. :- ) ) BTW, I can't see a crash happening. A long s l o w bear, yes. I know what my mindset was when this recent extension of the gold bear market got going. I tried to, 'buy the dips', i.e. bottom picking. Needless to say, it didn't work, but my broker made lots of money! I think the same thing will happen with the general market also. Not until every bull in stocks has been beaten in to submission, will that bear end. Of course, it has to start first! This is just IMHO. BBML.

Oldman ( 12:12 ) : Your comments about name calling and personal invective are fully supported. They have absolutely no place in civilized discussion. Those who resort to such would probably be better served and find greater fulfillment on one of the newsgroups where childish, uncivilized behavior is the norm.

PANDA: There is an article in Barron's today by Robert Sobel, Professor of Business History at Hofstra University. He says we are not going to have a fast crash but a he expects a slow crash as in late 1968 to 1974. I guess that is a half-fast crash. ( Grin thing )

Dave Keffler: PS: Those words WERE directed at you.

Aurator - 'Ike' Newton DID say it, he just didn't say it First.

Pigmies placed on the shoulders of giants see more than the giants themselves.

Lucan A.D. 39-65

and then

"...a dwarf standing on the shoulders of a giant may see farther than a giant himself".

Robert Burton 1577-1640

and FINALLY...

"If I have seen further ( than you and Descartes ) it is by standing upon the shoulders of Giants". this was a letter to Robert Hooke Feb. 1675

Sir Isaac Newton 1642-1727

He said it but NOT first and his Grammar needed work...

I believe it is out of flattery and respect that this is done. I, for one, do not mind AT ALL being 'reminded' about what has been said before. I think it was best to get some 'winks'. You were gettin' a bit salty to some... ;- ) . But I'm STILL diggin' your 'Aussie Ramble', Mate!

away
eb

keep on keepin' on cherokee...

D.A.: You are right about the Y2K problem. Out of the blue today at lunch my wife brought it up from something she had heard. She stunned me, she knows all about it. She usually doesn't pay attention to things like that.

Oldman: You are spot on about oil stocks, now as Louis Roukeyser would say, "What stocks do you like?".

Panda: Let gold go for awhile and buy something that goes up. Looks like the move up in August was just a sucker's rally. I bought some HM that's still above water, but barely.

Kahunna Grande: Oil and related services companies are spending big bucks gearing up. Yes, I've seen the out-of-state license tags. We are losing a very good analyst to an oil company. They are doubling his salary and sending him to learn SAP. He has been promised a six figure income in a couple of years. The jobs and money are here folks!

Cherokee: You have an interesting take on things and a very creative presentation. I disagree with you on the point about food, but then I'm an Aggie and we are leading the "Green" revolution. Away to eat maroon carrots and sweet onions. BBL

The US Money supply surging! M1, M2 & M3 all up SHARPLY! VERY RELEVANT IS FOLLOWING Guest Guru Milhouse analysis:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse831.html

ALI: I think that the Fed is concerned about the psychological factor with the price of gold. When gold goes up in price people see it as a thermometer taking the temperature of a sick economy. The Fed doesn't want to people to start buying gold. They are afraid about a repeat of the 1980 mindset, a run out of the dollar into gold. There is nothing backing the dollar except confidence. A loss of confidence in the dollar, ie: a rise in the price of gold, will be fatal to the dollar and US domination of the world economy.

Is this your real handle? The one you will be using from now on? You are not 'hiding' are you? Inquiring minds want to know...

Would you consider changing your handle to something less 'lurkish' and 'shadowed'? Like FRIEND or OF. Something w/o Kitco in it? Merely a suggestion...all in the name of good communication :- )

away
eb

Is this your real handle? The one you will be using from now on? You are not 'hiding' are you? Inquiring minds want to know...

Would you consider changing your handle to something less 'lurkish' and 'shadowed'? Like FRIEND or OF. Something w/o Kitco in it? Merely a suggestion...all in the name of good communication :- )

away
eb

Oldman: I am in full agreement on Gold,however PL is and has been for the past year the best ( fundamentals ) commodity of any that I study. Shame on you for holding spoos over a weekend.

I heard Martin Armstrong ( not sure of the spelling ) from
Princeton Economics International on a radio talk show this morning.
He encapsulated much of what has been said here at kitco.

Here is an overview of what he said, as best as I can remember.
Since I am a beginner in investing and economics, I don't completely
understand everthing that's said, so there may be some mistakes
in the following. I'm sure there are many here who can make
corrections where necessary.

On Asian Currencies:
Money leaves Europe and enters US because of uncertainty about Euro
value relative to whatever currency. US currency value increases.
Asian currenices increase also because they are pegged to US curreny -
but they are NOT geeting the same inflows of capital. Therefore they
become overvalued. Eventually they drop. The Asian countries try to
maintain value ( I guess by selling US dept &/or dollars ) . That's what
happened/is happening there.

On interest rates:
Hot investment money world wide is around $3-5 trillion. Base investment
money, that which supports the world economy and which is typically
in long term investments - like 30 year bonds, is around $25 trillion.
The base investment money, which is usually interested long term
( 10+ years ) forcasts has been asking for 6 month and one year forcasts
as of late ( due to the European situation above ) .
The US has a 70% chance of hitting its balanced budget target next
year ( I think that was the time frame ) , therefore, reducing
requirements to issue new dept.
These combine to create a yield inversion ( long term rates lower than
short term rates ) within six months or so.

US stock market:
Feels the DJIA is fairly valued at 6000 or there abouts. Expects to
see a 1000 point decline to 6600 possibly in October. Then bounce
betwwen there and 8000 for the next year or so, when the bull market
will continue.
However, he says if the bull market continues form here towards 10000,
then he fears there will be a 40% correction sometime shortly
thereafter ( that would put it back at 6000 where he feels it is
fairly valued ) .

Gold:
He feels that Europe still has a lot of selling to do. He feels
the Bundersbank has already been selling but won't announce until
the sale is complete; they struck a deal with the government which
gives them a year to liquidate gold before having to turn profits
over. He feels there is going to be downward pressure on gold
until mid to late next year. The price can reach the US$250 to
$270 range. After that point, he expect that gold will see the same
kind of assest appriciation that financial instruments have seen
todate.

OLDMAN: I have long argued that market reaction to news is by far the most important single indicator of a market's technical strength or weakness. You are right -- gold will indeed remain dead until the reaction to news vastly improves.

However in this case the signal for a fundamental trend change probably will be bullion's failure to go down further on bad news ( such as more CB selling ) rather than suddenly starting to go up on good news.

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors

Thanks for the information on Martin Armstrong. Great stuff. Which radio station did he appear on ( I'm interested in calling them & getting the full text ) .

MikeSheller - Organ and Aurator have their own understanding regarding 'how the world turns' and the nuances that surround it and the seen and unseen. There are many 'breeds of cat' in this world and I can't even say one is right and the other wrong. I can say that we should ALL have our minds open and seek out the mysteries of our existence for it is not concrete by ANY stretch of the imagination. When one says that something is HOKEY or a bunch of B.S. or Metaphysics is KRAP ( you should study some of the metaphysical it is WIDE in scope and stimulating ) I wonder why this is said. How do you KNOW that it is HOKEY?? Is this opinion or proven fact?? And how can you prove things unseen? Research? Trial and error? Mathmatical computations? I don't know. Did you know they are close to proving that something smaller than a Quark exists? WOW! What is a quark? How does it relate to the markets? How can it make me money?!? Is it HOKEY? Is it KRAP?? Why is it KRAP? Why is it HOKEY? I don't know.
Is it correct to 'throw your arms in the air' and 'give up' and say let's take the easy route?!? I don't know? What would William of Ockham do?!? Would he give up? I don't think so. btw, William was a apparently a very complex man and he came up with his 'diddy' probably because he had two VERY complex problems and his wife needed him to come to dinner...not. For those that need a 'text book' definition:
A rule stating that entities should not be multiplied needlessly, which is interpreted to mean that the simplest of two or more competing theories is preferable or that an explanation for unknown phenomena should first be attempted in terms of what is already known.
All...
This single edged blade should be read over and over and understood in all it's complexities for there are MANY. And it applies in all walks of life. As for the markets, you say that charts, analysis, fundamentals, etc. do not work. And Mike gives you an alternative ( not a competing theory but an unknown ) and you scoff at that as well. Now you use the buzzword of the week 'Ockham's Razor' and state that we should use the simplest method for determining outcome because Mike's method is unknown. Now I'm confused...WHAT METHODS DO YOU USE? And if your "earthbased' methods are not working what will you do?
Aren't we all sharing ideas of things that are NOT concrete? If it was concrete you ( organ ) would not be here posting KRAP. You would be out spending all you're 'easy-come-easy-go' cash and giving not a care in the world.
Reagarding LGB 'burning' purveyors in this discussion group: Is this right?!? Can you not scroll-on to the next post?!? LGB was a self professed 'savior' ( bless your heart LGB ) of the sheep-in-waiting. Do we need more of that Organ? I don't know. Do we need more open-mindedness?!? I think so. Do we need more teachers and 'purveyors'? I think so.

SO, if you got this far through MY ramblings I thank you. Be tolerant, we need YOU. I love YOU!

AWAY...to the unknown
EB

btw You would do well to pay CLOSE attention to the Giant among Giants.

You make an excellent point about Gold's reaction to news. I remember when a story like "Middle east Peace talks fail" or "Iran developing missile and nuclear capability", or "M3 money supply increases indicate inflation may be looming", or "100 or more portable nuclear weapons missing from Russian stockpiles"......all would have driven gold prices up at least in a single trading day. Instead, we've had all these stories and many more in the past week, including a strong showing for Silver and Platinum who "used to" follow gold, and yet gold remains incredibly weak, in spite of very high consumption and demand. Central bank sales can't explain this much weakness. There has been a near total philosophical shift away from the metal, when it comes to investors. Nothing short of catalysmic problems in the financial markets, ( or a huge world crises ) , are likely to reverse this trend in the near future. Keep posting George, it's good to read an advisor who looks at facts instead of fairy tales in making judgements on future market behaviour.

Want to know Washington's surprise issue of the summer? It's what to do with the excess cash if
the US government starts running a surplus.

No, a certain warm netherworld has not frozen over. The Boston Red Sox aren't bound for the
World Series. Pigs aren't flying like sparrows in the skies over Midwestern farms.

But the federal budget may soon reach a fiscal state thought wildly improbable only a few years
ago. Strong tax receipts - plus this summer's budget deal - could send Uncle Sam's books well into
the black, before 2002.

That's what optimistic analysts say, anyway. If they're right the whole nature of national politics
might change. Scarcity would no longer dominate budget discussion. Instead, there could well be a
race to divvy up the new loot.

Members of Congress are already introducing bills on the subject. At least one think tank has
hosted a "coming surplus" discussion. In fact, deficit hawks think the whole debate is already out of
hand. "Do you believe this, given the long-term problems that we face?" says Carol Cox Wait,
head of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. "Social Security and Medicare are
unsustainable in their current form, and we're talking about the surplus."

So where's this ( possible ) fiscal surplus coming from? It seems as if President Clinton and GOP
Republican leaders had a hard enough time striking an agreement that purports to simply balance
the budget by 2002.

Here's how optimistic experts figure it: The big budget deal will actually work out better than any of
its architects intended.

That's because the pact's underlying economic assumptions are too pessimistic, in the view of
some. It predicts that tax revenues will grow 4 percent annually - whereas throughout the 1990s
actual tax revenue increases have been closer to 7.5 percent per year.

Extrapolating past experience into the near future, plus figuring in some windfall revenue from the
coming capital gains tax cut, produces figures that point to a river of black ink. "I get a complete
reestimate with a $16 billion surplus next year, rising to a $137 billion surplus in [fiscal] 2002,"
writes Lawrence Kudlow, chief economist of American Skandia, in a recent fiscal analysis.

Of course, more-pessimistic experts think this kind of thinking represents hubristic budget
triumphalism. A recession, or even a hiccup of the business cycle, might throw the figures off.
Congress might never make the unspecified future spending cuts called for in the budget agreement.
The capital gains tax cut could produce a net revenue loss, not a gain.

As Ms. Cox Wait points out, the recent fiscal history of the United States is not exactly replete with
pleasant surprises. And the fiscal shortfalls of Social Security and Medicare could cause the budget
to dive back deeply into the red beginning around 2010.

But that hasn't stopped the debate over dividing up these notional surpluses from beginning. There
are three basic options: spend it, use it for tax cuts, or pay off a portion of the national debt.

To many in Congress defraying a portion of the debt sounds attractive. It seems like the fiscally
responsible thing to do, as the big deficits of recent years have increased the federal debt held by
the public fivefold since 1980, to $3.7 trillion.

At least one piece of pending legislation would devote most surpluses to debt reduction.
Introduced earlier this year by Rep. Mark Neumann ( R ) of Wisconsin, the bill would allocate
two-thirds of all excess funds to paying back what the government owes. Representative Neuman
claims the total federal debt could be paid off by 2026.

But a number of economists do not believe debt reduction should be a primary goal.

True, such a move could reduce the government's burden of interest payment, currently running
around $253 billion annually. But "debt" really means "treasury bills owned by the public banks,"
economists point out. Lowering the debt would lower national income, and perhaps slow the
economy.

Furthermore, debt repayment could preempt necessary investments in health, education, and
infrastructure. Debt reduction bills? "They're terrible," says Robert Eisner, a Northwestern
University economist.

Then there's always tax reduction. A significant number of GOP lawmakers think surplus money
should be used to keep shrinking down the federal government's fiscal reach. Their legislative
vehicle of choice is the Economic Growth Dividend Protection Act - a bill introduced by Sen.
Spencer Abraham ( R ) of Michigan that would reserve any surpluses over the next five years for tax
cuts first, and debt reduction second.

Even if the government leaves deficits behind and enters an era of surpluses, budget politics still
won't be easy. "Even if the deficit disappears, the debate will remain," writes Stan Collender,
managing director of the Federal Budget Consulting Group at Burson-Marsteller.

Well I spent 2 days being "civil", on topic, gentlemanly, respectful, unhumorous, non editorial, uncritical, maintainer of "decorum" etc. etc. ad nauseum. Having just logged on and parused 24 hours of essentially nonsensical posts about guns, planets, govt. conspiracies, personal attacks re Oldman, etc etc, it seems to me that I need never again feel the slightest twinge of remorse for waxing "philosophic" on this "gold" forum.

Sheller, I told myself I'd never again demean myself by adressing your metaphysical nonsense about planets which have about 1 trillionth the influence on the earth as the Sun and Moon do, as somehow affecting our investments. However, I must at least set the record straight on that great scientific mind "Newton" whom you smear and slander unfairly by claiming he was an Astrologist. The man believed in fundamentally orthodox Evangelic Christianity, Scientific methodology, and was an "Astronomer" ( amongst many other things ) , cetainly no Astrologer. Why don't you study some REAL history of the great minds of science instead of whatever Astrological nonsense you've been reading by Eric Van Daniken or whoever it is feeds you your phony history? I'll say one thing about Newton, his Second Law of Thermodynamics is certainly true in your case, you know, the one that postulates continous decline?

AS to you RJ, you're 01:21 was really something. And they say I'm prolific in my pontifications. Do me a favor and don't come to my "defense" any more will you? You're ego is exceeded only by Rosanne Barr's grocery billl my puffed up friend. Though in fairness, you made some solid points with which I agree.

I'll now return to saying what I want, when I want, and how I want, unless and until I am banned or barred from this "gold" forum. Critics notwithstanding, I think more of my posts have been Gold/market related than most of what I read here. Some folks ALMOST had me convinced I was a "disruptive" influence here!!

Hericane Linda may be heading to California coast. This may not take the entire stock market down but it sure could hurt insurance stocks.

Sorry, herricane=hurricane. That URL is:
http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/09/12/general_state_and_regional_news/cahurrica_1.html

I agree with all that you just stated. I would like to add however that George Cole, with all his great insight and market savvy HAS been pushing his 'predictions' farther and farther to suit the present state of the market. I believe someome ( was it you Front ) yesterday or so reminded him that he stated July, than August, than September, now October. I respect George and I digest ALL he says with great interest but it just goes to show you that No-One, and I mean, NOONE can predict these here markets. George, in your defense, you have backed up the reasons why your predictions have not come to pass. I think they can be manipulated but in the end, the markets will do what they will, REGARDLESS...

eb

( Following is a news story from the weekend before the 1987 crash )
19871019

-TX-

Although it's only October, the chill winds of winter have blown through the stock and bond
markets. Last week was particularly cold.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed the week at 2,246.73, a record 235.48 point drop in a
week that also saw the greatest one-day fall on Friday, of 108.36 points on a record volume of
338.48 million shares. Since its record high of 2,722 in August, the Dow has lost more than 17
percent of its value. Bonds, meanwhile, have hit their highest yields since Nov. 1985.

``Winter has come early to Wall Street,'' observes Alfred Goldman, director of technical market
analysis at A.G. Edwards & Co., St. Louis. ``The trouble has started, and we're in it.''

Most observers generally agree that the stock market's fall was long overdue. From August 1982
through August 1987, the Dow had risen 2,000 points. ``The market was ripe for a correction of
between 10 percent and 20 percent this year,'' says Monte Gordon, director of research at the
Dreyfus Corporation in New York. The five-year-old bull market has experienced little significant
correction until this year; a previous correction, in 1984, reached 10 percent. ``You can expect this
correction process for the next few weeks,'' Mr. Gordon says.

The market high could not be sustained, for reasons ranging from concerns about rising interest
rates to the country's $160 billion federal budget deficit and little reduction in the trade deficit. The
country is in its 59th month of recovery, the economy is fairly sluggish, and fears of inflation are
great.

On Thursday Chemical Bank raised its prime rate by half a percent, a move matched by Marine
Midland Bank on Friday. Such action renews concerns about inflation, especially because this is
the sixth hike in the prime this year.

``Interest rates will be forced up whether the Federal Reserve likes it or not,'' says John Connolly,
senior vice-president of Dean Witter Reynolds Inc. ``Chemical Bank basically countermanded the
Fed,'' which earlier that day brought funds into the banking system through repurchase agreements
to try to calm concern about a discount-rate increase. The Fed raised this rate, which is what it
charges member banks for loans, in September, the first time in three years.

Another reason for the stock market's fall, Mr. Goldman says, is its valuation levels. ``The high
price-earnings ratios, low yields, and book values of this market are levels you see close to the top
of a market, not the bottom,'' he explains.

An increase in bond interest rates, which have risen from 8 percent to 10 percent recently, also
contributed to the decline. ``This makes for stiff competition between stocks or bonds,'' Goldman
says. Interest-rate rises do not augur well for the bond market.

Also, third-quarter corporate results did not reach expected performance levels. ``Many analysts
are reevaluating the 1988 economy and earnings projections as a result,'' Goldman notes.

Perhaps one of the most stubborn concerns, which is spilling over to the markets, is the country's
$160 billion budget deficit. ``It is becoming more obvious that the United States is acting out the
role of the beggar internationally,'' says William Gillard, managing director of investment policy at
Kidder, Peabody & Co. ``While people are willing to lend money, they are not willing to lend at
low rates. They want to be compensated fairly.''

Because the private sector does not have $160 billion to lend, the country goes hat in hand
overseas. In 1985, the Group of Five - France, Britain, Japan, the United States, and West
Germany - agreed that each country would play its part in squaring up the international economy.
``The US hasn't taken the steps to ensure the progress in this problem,'' Mr. Gillard notes, ``so the
lenders are stepping up action.''

West Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, and the central bank of Japan have raised their
interest rates, Gillard says. ``They are departing from our parade and won't support the dollar the
way they did before. Germany particularly is interested in cooling economic activity to prevent
reinflation,'' he adds.

The August merchandise trade deficit figure of $15.68 billion, released last week, also affected the
market. The falling dollar was expected to cut the monthly figure to anywhere from $13.5 billion to
$15 billion.

``Although the trade figures released last week didn't reach the expectation, the trade deficit is
improving on a volume basis. This improvement is not showing up in the figures, however,'' says
Gordon at Dreyfus. ``The market was looking for good news, and it set up a straw man.''

On top of these factors, there is still a high level of bullishness about the market, which breeds
complacency about a sell-off. At market tops, people are still bullish, Goldman says. ``We also
have a problem in this market that half of the participants wouldn't know a bear market if it ate their
Mercedes,'' he says.

Yet now is not the time for investors to cut and run, Gordon says. ``There is no sign that inflation is
taking hold. The market is highly emotional, and fears are not generally warranted. Investors in
good stocks should hold their ground, because the market will rebound and will go on to a new
high,'' he says.

Mr. Connolly of Dean Witter suggests carrying liquidity and buying less volatile stocks or high-yield
stocks, such as utilities, which tend to show performance in a down market. ``Go for earnings in
cyclical stocks and interest-sensitive stocks, but not consumer stocks,'' he advises.

The Dow Jones utilities average has not fallen as far as the Dow Jones industrial average, observes
Edward Nicoski, managing director for technical research at Piper, Jaffray & Hopwood Inc., in
Minneapolis. ``This is a positive divergence, because people are putting money in interest-sensitive
stocks, like utilities.''

Two other investment options for this market are fixed-income instruments, which are securities that
pay a fixed rate of return, and certain stocks. ``I think the bond market has been overdone on the
downside,'' Mr. Nicoski says. ``Perhaps it's time to be a contrarian.''

On the equity side, Gillard advises looking at first-class companies selling internationally:
pharmaceuticals and the waste-management companies that are growing quickly. He also suggests
the regional Bell Telephone companies, because they are interest sensitive and give protection on a
market downside.

For those investors who do not hold stocks, Gillard suggests holding cash - Treasury bills or
riskless securities. ``These will prevent damage on the downside and allow you to buy on the
upside,'' he explains.

The market's behavior shows that investors have turned to cash. ``One way you raise cash is by
selling stocks,'' says Nicoski. ``This is reflected in the Dow being down 11 percent from its high in
August, while the over-the-counter issues, or secondary stocks, are down only 6 percent.''

Nicoski is another supporter of the regional Bells and other secondary stocks, particularly
technology. Regional banks deserve investors' attention, he adds.

``I think we're near the trading lows,'' he says. ``I think it's going to take some time to get back to
August highs; I'm not sure we'll see that by the end of the year.''

Okay, all you guys who bet me that LGB could pout all weekend long, PAY UP!

GS Cole: I agree that the first sign will be a failure to swoon on bad news. It will probably escape all but the most perceptive of us. Please post it if you see it. The big move up on good news, apparent to all, will come later. Re stocks: Lest I be misunderstood, here is my take on the stock market: I believe we started the last move up just after noon on Thursday. The move should carry to new highs, but failure is possible at any time. when Thursday's low of 7580 breaks, the bull is DEAD. This could happen as early as tomorrow, which would fit the '87 action to a "T". I do not expect failure here, simply because the internals are much too strong. I would not suggest that anyone trade stocks or the indexes from the long side unless you are sitting in front of a monitor with real time data. This is a dangerous time, IMO, since I believe we are in the process of forming a grand supercycle top. I have a fair number of leap puts, to which I will add as we go up from here. As I see the move take shape, I will look to add puts with 3 to 6 months to expiration. If I am right about this move being the last, puts owned at the next top will make a person for life. Should we reverse in the next day or 2 and take out Thursdays low, I sould be immediately maximum short with futures. Best guess is sometime in October, but I'm prepared at any moment.

Contrary to some who have completely mistated my advise and opinion here,
may I respectfully suggest that the future direction of the price of Gold, Stocks, or any other investment, will be dependant on a VASTLY large and diverse number of indicators. Rather than preaching a "narrow" view of analysis, My suggestion would be that in trying to do any valid technical analysis, you should BROADEN the scope of your analysis as much as possible. Start with the following basics;

1 ) Determine ALL factors that can objectively be shown to have substantially and consistently influenced the market in the past.

2 ) Prioritize and weight these factors as to their total influence.

3 ) Develop an analysis based on ALL the known historical information, not just that which conveniently fits some whacko theory, cycle, or "hope".

4 ) Determine what new factors exist in today's economy and market which will cause previous "laws" of behaviour to no longer be valid. Weight them into the equation appropriately.

5 ) Factor in worst case scenario "risks" and "unknowns" that may invalidate #1 through #4 above ( Gold confiscation by Govt. for example )

6 ) READ everthing you can find written by respected analysts who have had a CONSISTENTLY superior track record in the market during YOUR lifetime! You know, the ones who have made multiples of hundreds of percent for their clients rather than costing them same.

7. Look at current and future trends of Govt. institutions and policies that have already been demonstarted ot have enormous influence over the marketplace.

8. Base your final investment decisions on all of the above, plus any other important factors that would be given appropriate weighting. Don't be swayed by "Single event" abberations. Look at TOTAL trend accuracy. ( You know, like the position of a planet millions of miles away influencing say a Pharmaceutical stock price on a certain day, might have a weight of say .0000000000000001 in your final calculations )

Base your decisions on all the above and hope that "luck" is also on your side since it certainly becomes a factor as well. Simplistic? Very. Boring? Yep. Sucessful? Far more so than a lot of the "Advance, technical analysis" nonsense I've been reading here on this board. The proponents of whom have been such consistent market losers that they may qualify as "contrary" indicators at this point.


yes I know all this is very simplistic and basic. And it WORKS! ( Unlike those OH SO respected "models" we see the Zealots following here, to their wallet's destruction )

LGB @pouting no longer.....

Time to turn on "Money Talk" on KGO and listen to some REAL investment advise from someone with a strong, consistent track record! A guy who recommended "Applied Materials" a year ago at $22... and now it's roughly 550% higher. ( Course he saw it coming... when Hale Bopp moved into conjunction with Mars & Venus, lot's of influence of semiconductors there.... )

BYRON: Do you have a current opinion on this ratio? It is really setting new records of recent years.
http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/Ratio.html

Donald: Thanks for a great article from '87. There are similarities between then and now, not the least of which is the chart formation, which puts us now one day from the reversal down which broke out the bottom of the range and got the crash underway. The dissimilarities are noteworthy however. We have not had a 2% increase in bond yields or multiple rate hikes by the Fed. New highs/lows and the A/D line are much stronger now than at the same chart position in '87. We have never had more than about a 10% correction with new 52 week lows at these levels. The bull is not sick enough to die right now, IMO, ergo I expect new highs anon. But I will not leave the monitor withn a long position in place.: )

China works to "avert a financial crisis".
http://www.smh.com.au:80/daily/content/970913/pageone/pageone2.html

Oops, I did it again. Time for an apology and correction. A more careful reading of Sheller's 08:20 indicates that amidst the ramblings and substance abuse inspired pontifications, there was indeed a factual statement made. Namely, Sheller's statement that he "Cut his teeth on human beings". thank you for that bit oh honesty Mike. Indeed, all charlatans I know of who've made their living by duping others with snake oil, have also "Cut their teeth on human beings" so you have lot's of company.

"When the Moooooon is in the second Hooouuuuse ..and Jupiterrr..aligns with Marssssss, then truuuuuuth will guide the Plaaaaanets, and LoooUhhovve will steer the stars... THIS IS THE DAWNING Of the Age ...

I agree that there are many factors that determine the course of markets. My take on the current markets are thematic in nature. The theme that drives gold price is CB selling, low inflation, and stk BULL. The theme that drives the Stk BULL is strong US economy lead ( primarily ) by IT productivity enhancing payoff ( finally ! ) that is keeping inflation low as the economy hums at high levels of employment - quarter after quarter.

What keeps this theme alive is the reletively lacklustre state of the Japanese economy and low YEN interest rates. The Germans are still struggling with absorbing the former communist East while - at the same time - trying to move the European currency union toward the 1999 target date.

Then confluence of these thematic 'messages' have deeply rooted in the minds of investment managers and professional traders who are running fast and hard with the 'tape'. The party could not continue indefinitely so the 'sustaining' media spin that naturally occurs late in market cycles reinforces the 'feel good' economy. The retail investor is now extending the stock BULL in the face of extended financial ratios that in past have lead to market corrections. Some may argue that we already had a correction in the DOW and this may be the case.

The key points that I address is that theme driven markets are in auto-pilot mode to carry the load of retail investors toward the sacrificial financila alter.

There are many possible trigger points to shut the BULL down - US rate rise, Germanrate rise, Japanese liquidation of US debt; US earnings taper-off; global Act of God or political unrest of significance.

Whether the US FED has the ability and will to manage a soft landing if the US Stk BULL gets ugly is anyone's guess. I think we will see a confluence of events that will force the retail driven extended mania to change gears fast and the markets will run scared and also change directions in proportion to the volume and volatility of the antithetical events precedent that trigger the secular changes.

Cheers

Excellent insights Bob and I agree. media hype can certainly overshadow reality when the folks who report financial news have no idea what drives the market, One question though, for the vast majority of folks who invest in mutual funds through 401K's etc, and really aren't interested in any extensive market study..do you not believe that dollar cost averging in to stocks will "generally" be their most profitable strategy
over the LONG run vs. most other "trading" scenarios that rely on timing, PM's, leveraged instruments, etc.??

( News story from September 29, 1987, 3 weeks before the crash, discusses the problems of debtor nations and currency instability )
19870929

-TX-

If the world's finance ministers and central banks were cheerleaders at a football game, they would
be shouting: ``Hold that line.''

Gathered here for the joint annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) and the
World Bank, they are trying to keep the United States dollar from plunging in value too fast.

They are also attempting to maintain the present strategy for dealing with the trillion-dollar
third-world debt crisis.

Some important central bankers suspect the dollar will eventually have to drop further on the
foreign exchange markets to discourage US imports and encourage exports, thereby reducing the
massive American trade deficit. However, neither these officials nor others want a rapid decline.
They are concerned it could be disruptive, stepping up inflation in the US and possibly prompting
an economic slowdown in Western Europe or Japan.

Thus the Interim Committee, a 22-nation policymaking group of the IMF, noted ``the importance
of stable exchange market conditions.''

Similarly the Group of Seven ( the US, Japan, West Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, and
Canada ) at a meeting Saturday reaffirmed ``that currencies are within ranges broadly consistent
with underlying economic fundamentals. They recommitted themselves to continue to cooperate
closely to foster the stability of exchange rates around current levels.''

The language was almost identical with that used by the seven at a meeting at the Louvre in Paris
last February. Since then, the countries' central banks have spent an estimated $70 billion in foreign
exchange markets to keep the dollar within the broad levels set in Paris.

Maintaining their recent success in stabilizing the dollar's value on foreign exchange markets may
not be easy. The volume of trading on these markets is so huge that the efforts of central bankers to
hold the line can be quickly overwhelmed should investors, speculators, and businessmen decide
the dollar is headed down.

Japan assured the other six major industrial democracies that the Bank of Japan's move to curb
commercial bank lending last week was not the start of a significant tightening of Japanese
monetary policy. The money markets in the US were concerned that higher Japanese interest rates
would necessitate higher American interest rates.

Both the Japanese and West German central banks have been concerned that the rapid growth of
the money supply in their nations could be inflationary. They would like to curb that growth without
boosting world interest rates much.

The US won some praise for the unexpectedly large $60 billion reduction in the federal budget
deficit in the fiscal year ending tomorrow. The Interim Committee was also pleased with President
Reagan's decision to sign legislation aimed at trimming the deficit further in fiscal 1988.

The other major issue at this gathering of representatives of 151 nations was the debt problem.
Some nations were concerned that Brazil might take unilateral action on the nearly $70 billion it
owes foreign commercial banks.

Earlier in the month it had proposed converting loans into bonds at a huge discount. This would
have meant massive losses for the banks. But US Treasury Secretary James Baker III rejected the
plan Sept. 8 as a ``nonstarter.''

In a meeting with creditor banks here yesterday, Brazil proposed that the banks convert part of
their loans into so-called ``exit bonds'' on a voluntary basis. It also requested an additional $10.4
billion in new loans to cover the interest on their old loans and continue the imports that help the
nation maintain growth.

The proposal has not gone over well with Brazil's creditor banks.

Brazil unilaterally suspended interest payments on its loans last February. Some academic advisers,
including Rudiger Dornbusch, an economist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, have been
urging Brazil to take further action.

However, Brazilian Finance Minister Luiz Carlos Bresser Pereira approved of the Interim
Committee's communiqu'e, noting that ``unilateral initiatives carry heavy risks for all parties.''

Michel Camdessus, managing director of the IMF, spoke of some ``elements of fatigue'' in the
developing nations because their debt problems have stretched on much longer than anticipated at
the start of the crisis in 1982. But he maintained that the strategy of dealing with each nation on an
individual basis and striving for a combination of economic adjustments and growth in debtor
countries remains valid.

London Bullion Marketing Association ( LBMA ) is best described as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Daily gold trading nearly 50% yearly production. Who & Why?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron913.html

( News story from October 16, 1987 )
19871016

-TX-

The great bull market of the 1960s ended in 1966 when the Dow Jones industrial average hit 1,000
and the economy was strong.

Five years into the great bull market of the 1980s, investors are wondering if this is a repeat
performance.

Since Aug. 25 when it hit 2,722.42, the Dow Jones industrial average has fallen more than 300
points, including a record 95.46 points Wednesday.

After this tumble, investors are gun-shy of the markets. ``The psychology has obviously turned
negative,'' says Peter DaPuzzo, senior executive vice-president of Shearson Lehman Brothers.

For the most part, analysts blame rising interest rates for the falling market.

Long-term government bond rates now yield over 10 percent. With interest rates this high, says
Harvey Eisen, president of Integrated Resources Asset Management, ``they are stiff competition
for stocks which have yields at record lows.''

Short-term rates are also rising. Yesterday, Chemical Bank raised its prime lending rate to 9
percent, up from 9 percent. This is the second increase in two weeks.

The rise in rates is a surprise. Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, insists the
economy is strong without any overt signs of inflationary pressures. The White House in its own
forecast yesterday said it expects interest rates to fall shortly.

Bond buyers, however, are skeptical of official claims. Deborah Johnson, a senior economist with
Prudential-Bache Securities, notes that the prices of raw industrial commodities, such as steel and
paper, have been racheting up daily.

By year-end, Pru-Bache economic guru Edward Yardeni is predicting long-term rates will be 11.5
to 12 percent reflecting inflationary concerns. But next year, he believes rates will fall sharply, to 5
percent. He does not expect to see a recession but a slow, muddling economy.

In addition, Michael Sherman, chief investment strategist at Shearson Lehman Brothers says the
bond market is being adversely affected by a $40 billion stock offering of the state-owned
telephone company in Tokyo.

``As far as I can tell, Japanese investors are withdrawing liquidity here, which is acting to force
rates up,'' he explains.

In Tokyo, Albert Wojnilower, an economist with First Boston, points to rising interest rates as a
sign that monetary authorities in the US, Japan, and Europe have lost some of their resolve to
coordinate interest rate moves.

Investors are also beginning to consider political changes, says Michael Cosgrove, an economist at
the University of Dallas.

The higher bond rates, he says, ``are reflecting a move to the left in economic policies.'' Investors,
he believes, are discounting tax increases as well as higher inflation rates.

In addition, part of the market's sell-off consists of profit taking. The stock market is up almost 40
percent this year. ``It was better than most expected,'' says Mr. DaPuzzo, ``and many people do
not want to give it back.''

In fact, the stock market sometimes is weak in the fall, says Mr. Eisen, as investors take profits.
``This is a classical fall massacre,'' he says.

Even with the market down sharply, Eisen says he does not believe the bull market is over. The
markets are not euphoric or overly speculative.

Informal surveys of portfolio managers reveal that they are afraid of a big market pullback.

Eisen, however, is optimistic. ``Today everyone explains to you why the market is going to go
down and that is not the way the game works,'' he concludes.

OLDMAN: The post of October 16, 1987, is the closest that I could find to our present situation. Note that the market had just crossed into the 10% decline area. Interest rates were rising because Japanese needed funds at home and were selling bonds here. Someone please correct me if I am wrong but I think that real inflation adjusted interest rates are higher now at a real 5.5% than real rates were at this point in 1987.

Aurator: Lord Kelvin indeed said no man would fly yet it was ironically his contributions to fluid mechanics and vortex dynamic mathematics that allowed a theory of flight to be developed. He also said the atom was made up of individual three-dimensional vortices ( On Vortex Atoms, 1867 ) , no-one has managed to quite get their heads around that one yet. ( Also found some bad news on NBR about the shield match: (

All: I hate to shatter the illusions of the many good Americans who read this but it was actually a New Zealander who was the first man to fly, Richard Pearse.
Another illusion about to be shattered is the strong US dollar, any other country with such a huge debt and without such a military advantage would have been thrown to the currency vultures long ago. However as the dead-duck dollar-buck flutters back to earth the golden ( bald? ) eagle will soar.

Now in a worst case scenario, even if we had an "October Surprise" meltdown a la 1987. One point I'd make to all. Would you rather have bought into the DOW just before the crash..at say 2245, held on and now have DOW 7743....OR would you have preferred to buy gold that same month at $465, held on, and now be at $324???? Besides, an "87" kind of crash isn't in the works. We have lower interest rates now, lower inflation, higher pruductivity, higher stable monthly inflows from the past decades astronomical growth in 401K plans, better balance of trade, declining deficit, coming tax cut, more diverse economy, all the other factors already stated that would be redundant to repeat. Market top? Maybe. Crash? Not this year....

Lurky

I will probably never suffer an ego deficit, comes with being right so often, I guess. Perhaps you should reread my 01:21, for nowhere within can I find a word of defense or support of you. I am appalled by those that would try to control us all and I will defend your right to post here. Please be assured that this defense is generic and has nothing to do with you. You never learned how to play nice, and you now have a running fight with the world. Even when you attempt civility, your efforts seem forced and awkward. The word is civil, not Sybil. I find you a sad person. You will tire of us simple folk and move on to your next fight, but not before we tire of you first. Nowhere in your writings have I found a unique thought or observation. You seem to trot out the mundane, the old, and the mold, and claim it as you own. You are either a very small player, or you lie about your gains, because you would not survive the real world, you would be swallowed by those you detest. You hide in the shadows, never giving your name or e-mail address. You are very afraid, as most bullies are. The greatest test of intelligence is to understand what you do not know. Continue here, I do like the limericks, and I will probably read your posts, but I don't like you and I won't pretend I do.

Markets threatened by Asian tremors
'Spectre of global deflation is on the prowl'
The big worry in this situation is that currency markdowns will destabilize several banking
systems in Asia and liquidity problems could lead to temporary upward spikes in bond yields.
The International Monetary Fund has spearheaded a rescue operation for Thailand. Markets
in that country were hit by heavy selling this week after a news agency reported Moody's
Investors Service expected five of Thailand's 15 big banks to fail.
http://www.canoe.ca/FP/sep13_marketsthr.html

Speaking of puffed up - as in my ego:

Yesterday was captured a Guineapup Puffer fish off the coast of southern California. This is the first time this fish has be sited this far north. This is a warm water fish suited to tropical climes. The fish was pulled from 77 degree water. This is the pacific, folks, it just doesn't get that warm here abouts. El Nino is brewing and this promises to be an interesting winter.

Hurricane Linda went fro a Category 1 to a category V hurricane in less than 24 hours. The storm will cross the tropic of cancer tonight with winds topping 218 mph. The chances that it will hit the southern California coast is remote, but we will definitely get a piece of the storm Monday or Tuesday. Experienced hurricane watchers know how capricious a storm this size can be, and this is the storm to watch.

PS
My girlfriend's name is Linda, and she is getting a kick out of this whole thing, Jeeeeeeeeesh..........
Women and hurricanes..

Donald: If we were to follow the '87 chart exactly---and the similarity since the 8/7 top is admittedly striking---we'd reverse downward on Monday, taking out the lows and beginning the drop into the abyss. For the reasons stated previously, I think not. I shall have a resting MIT order on Globex tomorrow nite to buy any -3 handle tick on SP7Z. I will also sell any +$1 tick on GC7V. ps; I AM long PA, was long PL, but foolishly placed a stop which was hit last Monday, taking me out with a small profit from a position I wish i were still in. I will buy the next pullback in PL and add long in PA on any pullback.

Mutual fund heavyweight Altamira Management Inc. faces disciplinary action Monday after an Ontario Securities Commission
review found it had engaged in stock manipulation.
Altamira was put under the regulator's microscope in 1994 after questions surfaced about its trading in shares of
Calgary-based Dorset Exploration Ltd. The investigation was made public Friday.
Between April 1, 1993 and Oct. 31, 1994, Altamira traded Dorset shares more than 1,400 times, held as much as 29% of the
company and accounted for 54% of the trading volume.
What first raised the regulator's eyebrows was that Altamira accounts often made the final daily trade in Dorset at a price in
excess of the previous trade, establishing the closing price on an up-tick.
http://www.canoe.ca/FP/sep13_altamirafa.html

Gold Fields Mineral Services Ltd., whose analyses of world gold trends are closely
watched by investors and industry players, said net sales by central banks amounted to 220
tonnes of gold during 1997's first half.
That was more than triple the 72 tonnes of net central bank sales in the same period last
year.
Net sales take into account all central bank sales and purchases of gold.
During the first half of the year total sales were 493 tonnes, and total purchases were 273
tonnes.
http://www.canoe.ca/MoneyNews/sep13_centralban.html

RJ: Don't get me started about hurricanes. I have been through many. I walked home from school with the other kids and our teacher during the Great New England Hurricane of 1938. I can remember the terror every foot of the way. It still is vivid in my mind. I was at the worst possible spot on the Connecticut coast, 600 were killed.

KIWI Actually I was refering to Kelvin's proclamations on the impossibility of there being meteorites, despite eye witness accounts of villagers and the presence of smouldering rocks. Orthodox, therefore true explanation ---lightning stones.

Hear are some other pronnounciomentos from the genius of his age
"Heavier than air machines are impossible" "X-rays will prove to be a hoax", "Transmission of alternating current is a gigantic mistake" and "radio has no future"
MIKE SHELLER, Kelvin was also just a man.

I guess you go way back here at Kitco, but this is the first time I have been exposed to your opinions. I agree with your take on gold and the whites. I congratulate you for the PA trade. I closed all my clients PA trades in early July. I had not the nerve to buy long, nor the innocence to sell short. I have kept all my trades in PL since then and have done very well. The short gold, long silver/platinum trade has been the safest play. Some of my clients are a bit nervous about the gold short, but even in a breakout, silver and platinum will outperform gold. I believe we will hit new lows soon, the selling continues, the next announcement of CB sales will be good for a 15 - 20 dollar drop immediately. I will look to cover my shorts anywhere below 310. The 300 wall should hold the first time around, maybe a nice little rally back to present levels. I will look at new shorts then.

What was your strike price on your PL stops? Did you not see at least 440 - 450 this go around? I will put stops below me anywhere above 440.

As for silver, hmmmmmmmm. Lowest open interest in 4 years, warehouse stocks falling rapidly. Although I think silver will fall with gold, and soon, I see the potential for a vicious pop above 5.00 and I don't think the risk is worth a short right now. Besides, the next drop in silver looks to be 4.40 at the lowest.

I find your posts informative and well considered. The fact that we agree on many points helps to make them so palatable, I guess. I look forward to reading you in the future.

rjd@pacbell.net

Donald

Please do get started, I have a certain fascination with these storms and am trying to learn as much as I can for another project. Perhaps we could discuss by e-mail.

According to earlier story the net CB sales in 1997 amounted to 220 tons.

Summarizing:
RBA sale ( announced ) 167 tons unidentified buyer
Russia ( announced ) 31 tons unidentified buyer
Unidentified CB seller 293 tons
Total Gross CB sales 491 tons

Less: CB purchases 271 tons unidentified

Net CB sales 1997 220 tons

Could it be that the CB sale that Financial Times mentioned earlier, was to another CB ? since it shows CB puchases already at 271 for 1997.

WORLD ECONOMY IN
BRIEF

Date: 9/15/97

MONDORF:

EU cheered by EMU news

Just 16 months from the scheduled switch to a
single currency, European Union finance ministers
sought Friday to clear remaining obstacles to the
new money.

The ministers were cheered by upbeat economic
news, indicating most of the 15 member natons
were on course for meeting the conditions for
joining the monetary union by Jan. 1, 1999.

''Proposals for delaying the euro come from
people who are either badly informed or badly
intentioned,'' EU finance head Yves-Thibault de
Silguy said. ''There'll be no delay.''

LONDON:

Di's death hinders sales

U.K. retail sales in the week to Sept. 6 were an
estimated 7% lower than they would have been
due to the death of Princess Diana, the British
Retail Consortium said.

The BRC said sales for the week were about 232
million pounds lower than the expected
September weekly sales level of 3.32 billion
pounds.

LUXEMBOURG:

Italy's outlook brightens

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development is to revise up its estimates of Italy's
GDP growth to 1.1% for 1997 from a previous
estimate of 0.9% and to 2% for 1998 from a
previous 1.8%.

The upward revisions come on the back of similar
upward revisions from the International Monetary
Fund. It now sees Italy's growth at 1.2% this year
and 2.1% next year.

FRANKFURT:

Progress made on EMU

EU countries have made ''considerable'' progress
toward economic convergence, although
difficulties remain in fiscal policy and labor
markets, said W.F. Duisenberg, president of the
European Monetary Institute.

Duisenberg also expressed confidence that the
EU's single currency, the euro, will be a stable
monetary unit with the backing of a powerful
European System of Central Banks.

''There has been a considerable measure of
achievement in some areas ( of economic
convergence ) , notably in the progress toward
price stability, while some challenges still remain
( in the labor markets ) ,'' Duisenberg said.

MOSCOW:

Slowdown urged for sell-offs

Scalded by scandals surrounding recent sell-offs,
Russian President Boris Yeltsin warned his
privatization chief to be careful about future sales.

''There's no need for too much hurry,'' Yeltsin told
Deputy Prime Minister Maxim Boiko in a Kremlin
meeting, according to the ITAR-Tass news
agency. Boiko took office last month after his
predecessor was removed in the wake of scandals
over the sale of stakes in telecommunications giant
Svyazinvest and metals plant Norilsk Nickel.

LONDON:

Wage inflation signs?

Early signs of inflationary pressure in U.K. public
pay negotiations emerged Friday when nurses
demanded a rise of 20% and head teachers called
for 10%.

The government will announce whether it accepts
the findings in February. Unless the pay awards
are particularly high, the government is unlikely to
veto them.

This week, doctors are expected to seek a 50%
pay hike. Also due to make claims are the
public-sector workers' union Unison and the
National Union of Teachers.

BONN:

Recovery continues, gov't says

There are signs that Germany's recovery is
continuing through the current third quarter and
will lead to annual GDP growth of 2.5% as
projected by the government, the economics
ministry said.

''Indicators stretching beyond the second quarter
suggest a continuation of the economic upturn in
the second half ( of 1997 ) ,'' the ministry said
Friday in its September report.

FRANKFURT:

Car sales jump 9.7%

New passenger car registrations in Western
Europe jumped 9.7% in July from a year earlier to
1,154,100 units, led by strong gains in Italy,
Ireland and Sweden, according to provisional data
released Friday by the European Automobile
Manufacturers Association.

Sales rose in nine of the 17 European nations
surveyed, and declined in eight, the group
reported.

MEXICO CITY:

Small trade deficit posted

Final trade data showed a deficit of $18 million for
July, just a little smaller than the preliminary
number of $20 million put out in late August. The
deficit was the first since January 1995, but the
initial report had caused little concern, given strong
growth in both exports and imports.

Exports in July were up 17.5% from a year earlier
to $9.405 billion, the Finance Ministry said late
Thursday. Imports rose 23.7% to $9.423 billion.

In the first seven months of '97, exports rose
15.6% to $61.825 billion; imports jumped 22% to
$59.752 billion.

Re: Your posts to ( oldman 18:20 re: CB announcement ) & my posting 18:24 re CB sales recap.

Could you please comment ( it appears that other CB's puchased 273 tons. )

RJ: Here's the story of how stupidity and carelessness can cost a dumb trader. I switched my personal futures account to the new ZAP electronic system the first of the month. Last Monday PL was not behaving very well and I had to be away from the monitor for half day Mon and 1/2 day Tue, so I placed a stop well below the swing low of late August, just for dsaster insurance while away. There is a glitch in the software, which is supposed to be fixed in another day or 2, which defaults to the "limit" order box if you go directly from the price field to the "order type" field and click once on the order type. I clicked once on "stop" transmitted the order and didnt check til late tuesday at which time i found that the order had been entered as a limit order and filled at 411.50 and 411.20. Of course it was back above 420 at the time. Still love the electronic order entry, but wont really trust it til i'm sure the glitch is fixed. Another example of why experience is the best teacher----'cause the tuition is so damn high!

Arch Crawford, written Sept. 2: "Increase short positions to 200% on the close of Monday, Sept. 15, using full margin capabilities! That means that as of that moment, we are as negative as we can get and we think you should be, as well. We believe that a short, sharp rally will ensue by the time this letter comes in the mail, probably too late to take proper advantage, before rolling over to maximize the damage on and after the Eclipse of the Moon on Tuesday the 16th. Whether we get a 'for real' crash here or not, the economic, political, psycho-social set-up for it has reached a manic proportion unseen in several centuries. The market and currency turmoil of the Far East is a precursor and a warning."

RJ;Look here for your Linda
http://www.earthwatch.com/SKYWATCH/IRNW2D.html has the latest
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/us/hurricane.html has nice satellite images

My own thoughts is that this thing will actually intesify and move more north-easterly as it latches onto warm hot area over Baja...try predicting weather to the markets...there's a thought a weather futures board...

"So live your life that the fear of death can never enter your heart. Trouble no one about their religion; respect others in their view, and demand that they respect yours. Love your life, perfect your life, beautify all things in your life. Seek to make your life long and its purpose in the service of your people. Prepare a noble death song for the day when you go over the great divide. Always give a word or a sign of salute when meeting or passing a friend, even a stranger, when in a lonely place. Show respect to all people and grovel to none. When you arise in the morning give thanks for the food and for the joy of living. If you see no reason for giving thanks, the fault lies only in yourself. Abuse no one and no thing, for abuse turns the wise ones to fools and robs the spirit of its vision. When it comes your time to die, be not like those whose hearts are filled with the fear of death, so that when their time comes they weep and pray for a little more time to live their lives over again in a different way. Sing your death song and die like a hero going home."

Chief Tecumseh, Shawnee Nation

*** "I am a warrior, I am Shawnee"****

"So live your life that the fear of death can never enter your heart. Trouble no one about their religion; respect others in their view, and demand that they respect yours. Love your life, perfect your life, beautify all things in your life. Seek to make your life long and its purpose in the service of your people. Prepare a noble death song for the day when you go over the great divide. Always give a word or a sign of salute when meeting or passing a friend, even a stranger, when in a lonely place. Show respect to all people and grovel to none. When you arise in the morning give thanks for the food and for the joy of living. If you see no reason for giving thanks, the fault lies only in yourself. Abuse no one and no thing, for abuse turns the wise ones to fools and robs the spirit of its vision. When it comes your time to die, be not like those whose hearts are filled with the fear of death, so that when their time comes they weep and pray for a little more time to live their lives over again in a different way. Sing your death song and die like a hero going home."

Chief Tecumseh, Shawnee Nation

Hmmm RJ, re your 17:48, let me see if I have mastered your lesson plan for me on civil, rational, advanced intellectual thought processes on the important philosophical questions of our day. You spent your time saying in reference to me that I am;

"Forced"
"Akward" ( in reference to civility )
"Sad person"
"No unique thought"
"trot out mundane"
"small player"
"Liar"
"Afraid"
"Would be swallowed by real world"

Now that I understand by your example, how to carry on a more advanced level of civil discourse, I'll really try harder to live up to the lofty standard you have one again set for us all.

As to my E mail address etc. Since I have made no secret of the fact that I'm an individual investor ( not a charlatan rousting up business here ) , and since I have stated many times that I just purchased quite a large position in Platinum and silver coin and intend the same for gold in the near future, just how intellegine would it be for me to post my name, address, e mail address, etc. as so many have suggested, so that a few million net citizens have that personal info.? I'll refrain from explaining in great detail why such post would be reserved for the most moronic amongst us, see, I'm not selling Newsletters, or leaching off other investors. I actually own some physical.... An ad that says "come and get it" wouldn't be REAL smart, even for a dumb, mindless, unoriginal, intellectually challenged, neuron shortaged mind like mine.

"After Albright admitted that she failed to reach a compromise
between Syrian and Israeli attitudes," according to sources
who spoke on condition of anonymity, the American Secretary
of State traveled to Egypt where she met Egyptian President
Hosni Mubarak and Foreign Affairs Minister Amr Moussa.

Albright's talks with Syrian President Hafez Assad lasted four
hours, in the presence of American negotiator Demis Ross and
the American ambassador to Syria. During this meeting, Assad
said that Syria will stick to its position, and he insisted on the
fact that he wanted to reach global peace only through the
application of the "land for peace" principle and Madrid
agreements.
http://www.arabicnews.com/ansub/Daily/Day/970913/1997091301.html

IDF troops kill
Hizbullah leader's
son
http://www.jpost.co.il/

Oldman - Going to try and buy the SPZ7 at 931.5 or better Mon. morning or Sunday night, looking for a rally into Tues. close. After that I'll be looking to sell, ideally above 955 basis Sept, but any price that makes sense at that point. If Dec gold closes a $1 higher or more from Friday's close it's good for at least another 5. XAU looks like it could bottom early next week if it does the lows for gold will be in for at least the next few months.

EB @ 13:41 on Isaac Newton, QED. Thanks I've read all that just wasn't at hand late last evening, I stand corrected.

Unreserved apologies to any one who was offended by my "saltiness" last night. ( Anyone know a "repentant" emoticon? )

But, ya see, I'm not an Australian, and to be called one is pretty darned insulting....;- ) )

No question. Dollar cost averaging is the best investment strategy for most investors in all cases. I think it is a combination of ego and the excitement of risk and return that encourages nonprofessional investors to duel with professionals. It is interesting to note that even a successful pro like Trader Vic was challenged by floor traders tactics.

Cheers



Cheers.

APH: No argument with you on the Spoos. Dont have a lot of faith beyond 950 myself. I see a breakout to the downside from an elliott triangle on GC7V that says new lows ahead. I've been short long enough to not get hurt here by a reversal though. I also think SPX finished forming the same pattern about noon on Thursday. If we break out above 940 cash with any gusto at all on Monday, I think we'll see the old highs by week's end. We were very oversold by my indicators when we made that turn on Thur. 10 day trin was highest since 7/96, for example.

News on Tripartite Gold Commission and Nazi gold.
http://washingtonpost.com:80/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-09/13/094l-091397-idx.html

Bob I must agree, for the vasty majority, that will be the best long term strategy. I admit I'm violating it by becoming a trader ( completely out of market at the moment ) , but my motive is probably more "greed", than any basic belief in a superior trading strategy. That plus I enjoy the thrills and spills of the "action". ( Man how I'd love to get a few of the regulars here around the poker table..... )

APH: Should have read, "SPX MAY have ------"

What's the pecking order around here anyway?

Why does lurky turkey get to gobble all the time.

Speak right on up Kiwi, "cat" got your tongue??

If you really want to know, some time back LGB posted a message with his EMail address....

Donald and Guinea-Puff-Boy -

Don't get me started... ;- )

I am watching this lovely Linda also. We should get some Heavy rain in lower Cal. as Kiwi thinks ( and that island man should know ) . It will be good for us ( can always use the rain ) Bad for Mexico...no?

We in Cal can relate to disasters...I was 10 miles from Sylmar '71 and 9 miles from Northridge Quakes ( as the crows flies ) . WHOA! The latter broke EVERYTHING in my Pad...except the t.v. Weird... Thought I was gonna die.

Interesting though, nothing happened to the price of gold ;- )

away
eb

Oldman - There is also a triangle on the GCZ7 hourly chart indicating a break to the up side before another pull back.

APH: Guess it may be time for a rally in GC, 'cause I'm gettin awfully comfortable being short. That's usually a pretty good sign of an impending reversal: ) gota go. Good luck all.

Big Brother: Pray tell, what is it?

RJ; http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100t.htm
Looks like it's coming home to roost with the Pacific fleet.
Even a big bird like you wouldn't want to be flapping about on top of this Linda.

Saturday, September 13, 1997

Confused by campaign, Norwegians move toward the familiar

OSLO, Norway ( AP ) -- Norway's free-spending Labor Party wants to save money. The tight-fisted far right wants to spend more. The Center Party is to the political left, the Left is to the right, and many ask where the Right is.

The Conservatives, the main opposition party, have all but disappeared in the campaign. Support for the Center party, actually left of Labor, and the Left, actually to the right, is dwindling in polls.

Of the smaller parties, only the Christian Democrats appear set to gain in the election,

http://www.canoe.ca/News/sep13_norway.html

6-Pack: Your post has not fallen on deaf ears. What a great human being Chief Tecumesh was. He had his priorities and values in the correct order. He was a leader of a great nation of people. It seems great nations are governed by great leaders.

I feel sadenned when I think about our nationb and its government. It stood for great ideals, but unfortunately we have no great leaders in power to fulfill its promise. Clinton is a real disgrace and representative of the times.

Some people are so lost in life that they think "being rich" or the pursuit of wealth is the most important attainment and justifies their means. These are pitifull souls who have much to learn in this lifetime.

6-Pack - You have injected this forum with a powerful and good influence, the soulfulness of Chief Tecumesh. His wisdom lives today and enriches and encourages the hearts and minds who reflect on his thoughts and emgrace its meaning.

In honor of the Great Chief Tecumesh, a leader defined by his wisdom and integrety, I will reflect on his teaching from time to time and apply it to my life on a daily basis.

Thanks again, 6-pack, for your sharing this wisdom with us.

I received a call-back from John Anderson, BGO's Investor Relations Cheif, today. He is working overtime to respond to all investor calls that were triggered by a sudden high volume drop in both BGO and AZS.

I left him a message yesterday suggesting that:

1 ) Barrick's closure of El Indio in Chile due to metallurgy problems that resulted in $350-ish/oz au costs; and

2 ) noise about Chilean politicians are lining up to enact a 5% royalty on minerals,

have damaged the prospects of Cerro Casale coming on stream. John left a reply stating that Bema was well aware of the problems associated with El Indio as the mining fraternity in Chile has been talking about the lay-offs and terminations at El Indio staff well before the news of a shut-down. He also indicated that Bema has a former Lac Minerals specialist working with them who knows the problems associated with El Indio - a former Lac property - that had burdened the production of economic ores. The first point is that El Indio is an underground mine instead of open pit type operation as proposed at Cerro Casale. The problems of El Indio's ore separation through roasting is specific to the nature of the geology in general and the low grade nature of this underground mine. John stated that El Indio does not compare with the Cerror Caslae deposit characteristics ( open pit, porphry, metallurgy ) .

John also mentioned he and another BGO executive will be off on European road shows to raise the profile of Bema's investment activities in Chile.

He did not address the 5% royalty issue.

Cheers.

Watch it guy's, discussion of philosophical questions beyond the relationship of gold to cuurency could invoke calls for your ouster from some quarters! Even on a "slow" posting day. After all, what could ever be more important than how many dollars or ounces of gold a man has? While I may not adhere to the chiefs every word, there was wisdom in his pronouncements. Thank you.

RJ: 17:48 - Bingo! EB: With friends like you...AURATOR: "Newton didn't know squat about Alchemy and Astrology." And I suppose YOU do.
SPEED: Perhaps if you had bought some MOGN when I told you to, you would'nt be hitting "Oldman" up for stock tips, would you? The Bard would be ashamed!!!

Saturday, September 13, 1997

Markets threatened by Asian tremors

'Spectre of global deflation is on the prowl'

By BUD JORGENSEN
Economics Reporter The Financial Post

Volatility returned to financial markets this week after a short recess -- a bumpy ride in stocks, bonds and currencies that reflected conflicting signals about the world economy. Interest rates have been rising in Asia because of currency devaluations, but the consensus view at home is that rates will fall as inflation fears recede.

North America continues to show signs of steady growth, with no pricing problems. But the currency crisis in Asia has raised concerns those problems will infect other parts of the globe.

"The spectre of global deflation is on the prowl," says the International Bank Credit Analyst, a publication of the Montreal-based research group, edited by Stephen Poloz.

"Moody's expects Thai banks to face stress, but failures unlikely." The weakest banks will need help from "official sources," it said, and some banks "have, or will have, severe solvency problems."
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/FP/sep13_marketsthr.html

Donald:

Yauger has not yet updated his charts for the last week. ( Maybe by tomorrow. ) However, the XAU/Gold Ratio gap is still the same if not wider after last week's action in the gold stocks. Since nature abhors a vacumn, I feel that this hug gap between the two line charts will be filled shortly and possible in a swift manner. I'm in the camp that we are about to get a nice bounce up for the gold stocks, very possibly next week. ( Really hate trying to pick the bottom. ) : (

Been playing around with the "technical indicators" options at Big Charts. ( I posted its URL sometime ago ) The Fast and Slow Stochastics indicators are "at their bottoms" for the XAU and HUI Indexes.Also I discovered a new indicator at that site call The Ult Oscillator which on the daily and weekly charts for the XAU and HUI really looks good for a move up. The indicator is also known as the Ultimate Oscillator. Hey, how good can it get when you have the ultimate. ( :-^ ) ( tongue in cheek. ) !!!

Thanks for your thoughtfulness, regarding, the remarks of Chief Tecumseh.
Yes, he was a great man, a man of the people.

Byron -- Don't forget! Next Friday is the Triple Witch. What is the XAU and HUI net option position? Long or short? I think the question is, "Who do we burn, longs or shorts?" Just a paranoid thought. My calls are long dead. They only wait a decent ( ? ) burial. :- (

LGB:Gold's very poor performance indeed reflects something much more fundamental than CB sales. Namely the increased confidence of capital generally and U.S.capital in particular. Gold moves up when capital starts to run scared and sags when investor confidence moves towards the euphoric levels now extant. As long as these basic trends continue, a major gold bull is out of the question.

But history teaches that these tides do change. Business also was supremely confident in 1929. Gold is not really dead -- just in a state of suspended animation. And it is as cheap as it has ever been in relation to financial assets. Dow/gold ratio was 6 going into the 1987 crash. Today it is 24. So gold almost certainly will do MUCH better relative to stocks over the next decade than during the past 10 years.

OLDMAN: Not sure about new highs in the big-cap averages, but agree absolutely the market's internals are much too strong for a crash to develop in the near future. But once the number of new lows expands significantly, and the A/D ratio starts to deteriorate, anything can happen. My best guess -- back to Dow 8000 this week, but down to the 7000 area by late October.

Since you are well informed on the BGO issue, what if any are your comments on ELD,& GIT,current price weakness not withstanding,what do you think of their fundamentals...Donald..RJ, If you've time,can you awnser the rest of my post from "eightish" this morn, I really am curious.

Mike Sheller, I have apologised, and as was pointed out, I was a tad too salty last night. In NZ we call it p*ssed. As in, I'm going down to the pub to get salty. :- ) Heh, you were making canibal noises, and I thought I was going to be dinner......

Saturday, September 13, 1997

Show me the money

A report on broker-client conflict suggests investment dealers disclose their holdings. But discretion is all on Bay Street

By SUSANNE CRAIG
Securities Industry Reporter The Financial Post

The Investment Dealers Association and Canada's stock exchanges will release a study this Thursday appropriately titled The Conflict Report. It's bound to generate at least as much conflict as it attempts to address. Not only does it deal with the sometimes intermingling interests of broker and client, it is going to create strife in a community that is at times deeply divided over how much disclosure is too much.

While the preliminary report released in February made no mention of two incidents in 1996, it was suspicious trading at some Toronto-based brokerage houses that led the country's self-regulatory organizations ( the IDA and the exchanges ) to commission the study.

In June last year, several First Marathon Inc. brokers allegedly made huge profits promoting junior mining company Cartaway Resources Corp. The shares ran from almost nothing to $26 and back, while eight brokers at First Marathon played multiple roles at the company as underwriters, investors and promoters.

"I would be surprised if the reaction of all these parties is unanimously positive or negative," says Shields. "I expect to have some people say it is a step in the right direction but not far enough, and others will say it is overkill and the system isn't broke so why fix it."

http://canoe2.canoe.ca/FP/sep13_showmethem.html

hah----

@lurky turkey

that says it-----and a volume more! the old saying
of a picture is worth a thousand words is a vacuum
in nature...... it does not hold suction or exist!!!

gold from a technists' aspect ( dec'97 ) is playable
in either direction. if/then and begin---------

mike sheller--

your perspective has more meaning and relativity
immfat and is highly regarded. george cole, auric,
vronsky, oldman, strad, da, etc....all and more....
thanks for shouldering the masses and trying to ignore.....

the giants are in abundance,
unfortunately, so are their pundits, in a majorical a-bundance.


cherokee!; ) blaster-of-the-masterMODE-and-lifter-of-the-shifting-solenoid,
war paint AND dull blades available for free-----------

High Times, June 1997

"Spook Wars In Cyberspace--Is the FBI
Railroading Charles Hayes ?"

by Dick Russell

Intro

Why does the international dope trade
just keep flourishing, even while major
traffickers and their government
protectors keep getting exposed and
imprisoned? Well, it could just
possibly be that the ones going to jail
aren't using the right computer
software. Here's another murky peek
into the legendary PROMIS conspiracy.

Spook Wars In Cyberspace -
Is The Government Railroading
Charles Hayes ?

This is a story straight from a
Tom Clancy novel, or maybe Mission:
Impossible. Shortly before last
November's election, Kentucky surplus-
computer dealer, who claims to be a
longtime CIA contract agent, gets
arrested by an FBI SWAT team and is
charged with hiring an undercover agent-
to murder his own son.

At his trial in January, 61-year-
old Charles Hayes testifies that he's
been set up by the federal government.
And why? Because he's part of a team of
retired intelligence types calling
themselves the "Fifth Column," who've
been using a supercomputer to hack into
certain secret foreign bank accounts
used by numerous US politicians to
stash illegal funds garnered mainly
from drug and arms dealers.

The prosecution's key witness
against Hayes, at the trial in London,
KY, turns out to be a right-wing
California journalist who occasionally
informs for the FBI, a fugitive with a
history of mental institutionalization.
For the defense, a former senior editor
at Forbes magazine vouches for Hayes'
credibility. After the jury hears tapes
of Hayes discussing a $5,000 payoff for
a prospective hit on his estranged son,
the defendant responds that he'd known
all along he was talking to an FBI
undercover, but had been stringing the
Bureau along so he could develop
evidence against them. When the CIA
introduces affidavits disavowing any
relationship with Hayes, he takes the
stand to provide his cover name,
"Charles Lawson," and an ID number.

Following three hours of
deliberation, the jury finds Hayes
guilty, to the astonishment of nearly
100 supporters present. He says from
his jail cell afterwards, while his
attorney moves for a new trial, that he
anticipates "assistance" from higher
powers.

Hayes Gets Around

Is Charles Hayes for real, or
merely a con man looking for a get-out-
of-jail-free card? For months prior to
his arrest last year, revelations about
Hayes and his postulated Fifth Column
had been circulating on the Internet
and in Media Bypass, a colorful
"patriot" publication out of
Evansville, IN. Not only was this Fifth
Column said to have downloaded
financial records on government
officials from up to 3,000 hidden
overseas accounts, but they also
allegedly wire-transferred about $4
billion clear out of those accounts
into "escrow holding funds" at Federal
Reserve banks.

Then, according to Hayes, these
alleged Robin Hoods of cyberspace began
quietly announcing their findings to
certain congress people and foreign
governments; which is why, so the yet-
undocumented saga brags, a record
number of 60-some US senators and
representatives announced their
retirements just before the 1996
elections. And that also is supposedly
how the Mexican federales got turned on
to the drug-laundered millions salted
away in Switzerland by the family of ex-
President Carlos Salinas de Gortari.

On the face of it, these
assertions might appear preposterous.
But a HIGH TIMES investigation into
Hayes' background reveals a tantalizing
trail of evidence indicating, at the
least, considerable insider knowledge
about computers and smuggling.

In 1985, Charles Hayes was a key
government witness in a Kentucky trial
involving the largest gemstone seizure
ever by US Customs-millions of dollars'
worth that had been smuggled out of
Brazil

In 1991, the telephone records of
doomed journalist Danny Casolaro showed
numerous phone calls to Hayes in the
month before Casolaro was found dead in
a West Virginia hotel room. Casolaro
had spent the past several years
investigating a tangled web of
government corruption he called "the
Octopus." One of Casolaro's focuses was
the Inslaw case, in which the Justice
Department stands accused of having
stolen the company's PROMIS computer
software, which was capable of tracking
complicated financial transactions.

In 1992, Hayes testified about the
Inslaw matter before a Chicago grand
jury. In April '96, he was subpoenaed
and gave a lengthy deposition about
Inslaw to a Justice Department
attorney, who quizzed him about his
computer expertise. FBI Special Agent
David Keller testified at Hayes'
January trial that he knew of him from
a previous FBI investigation into the
Inslaw matter.

In July 1995, Rep. Jim Leach,
chairman of the House Banking
Committee, wrote to the director of the
National Security Agency, seeking "your
agency's help in verifying or laying to
rest various allegations of money-
laundering in Arkansas in the late
1980s." Among other matters, Rep. Leach
asked about Inslaw's PROMIS software-
and Charlie Hayes.

Several of Hayes' associates back
up his contention that he's being
framed, in an attempt to put the Fifth
Column out of business. One well-placed
source, who requested anonymity,
affirms that Hayes was a CIA asset,
adding, "I think Hayes has been set up
to the nth degree to discredit him."

Mena and the Octopus

Hayes launched the five-member
Fifth Column himself, he maintains to
HIGH TIMES, primarily to follow the
money-laundering of the international
drug cartels. It's a personal crusade,
according to one of his associates in
Kentucky, triggered by the way Hayes'
37-year-old son, John-the alleged
murder-for-hire target-supposedly
"cooked his mind on drugs." Mark
Swaney, whose Arkansas Committee was
responsible for much of the early
publicity surrounding the notorious CIA
drugs-and-arms operation out of Mena,
AK, ( HighWitness News, Jan. 95 ) spoke
with Hayes on a number of occasions
between 1992 and '95: "A lot of what he
told me about Mena turned out to be
true," says Swaney.

Swaney's notes from a July '92
interview with Hayes contain charges
that both the federal government and
the Arkansas State Police were involved
in distributing cocaine out of Mena.
Asked if then-Governor Bill Clinton was
aware of the Mena operation, Hayes
responded, "No, but his associates were
involved." He elaborated that some of
the money was laundered through two
powerful Arkansas companies with ties
to Clinton.

In a five-hour jailhouse interview
not long before his trial, Hayes, a
former Air Force pilot, described a CIA
assignment he'd once undertaken to fly
a weapons shipment from Mena to Aruba
in the Caribbean. On discovering that
the cargo was actually cocaine, Hayes
told me, he dumped it on the runway and
ended up in a shoot-out that killed
several people.

This is one of many stones, such
as Hayes' claimed friendships with
Fidel Castro and Sen. Edward Kennedy,
that prove impossible to verify. But
William Hamilton of St. Louis, the
president of Inslaw, tells of
encounters with Hayes which add
credence to the existence of the Fifth
Column. Hamilton first became aware of
Hayes in 1990, in the midst of Inslaw's
legal battle to prove that the Justice
Department, FBI, CIA, NSA and other
federal agencies had illegally
appropriated their PROMIS database-
management software for their own
purposes.

As recounted in a heavily redacted
House Judiciary Committee report, The
Inslaw Affair ( September 1992 ) : "Mr.
Hayes is a surplus computer dealer with
alleged ties to both United States and
foreign intelligence communities. Mr.
Hayes first came to the attention of
the Committee during August 1990,
following assertions that excess Haris-
Lanier word-processing equipment he had
purchased from the US Attorney's office
for the Eastem District of Kentucky,
located in Lexington, contained the
PROMIS software." The Justice
Department had subsequently seized the
equipment back from Hayes, preventing
its use as evidence in the Inslaw case.
( The computer gear had also allegedly
contained sensitive classified
material, such as the identities of
narcotics informants. )

Hamilton therefore contacted
Hayes, who told him the military owed
Inslaw plenty of money, because it had
secretly distributed his PROMIS
software. When Hamilton subsequently
learned from a CIA contact that PROMIS
had indeed been used aboard US
submarines, he visited Hayes in
Kentucky in January '91. PROMIS was "in
the CIA, DEA, FBI, everywhere," Hayes
told him. Checking him out with other
sources, Hamilton was told
that Hayes and a partner both code-
named "Running Fox" had belonged to an
elite intelligence unit which "had to
be
able to take apart and put back
together, without any diagrams, the
Cray supercomputer."

According to Hayes, this elite spy
unit was known as "Squad D." First
mentioned in Bob Woodward's book Veil:
The Secret Wars of the CIA, 1981-1987,
Squad D was established by William
Casey, Ronald Reagan's CIA director.
Part of its mission was computer
hacking. "There was penetration of the
international banking system," Woodward
wrote, "allowing a steady flow of data
from the real, secret sets of books
kept by many foreign banks that showed
some hidden investing by the Soviet
Union."

And not just by the USSR. PROMIS-
short for "Prosecutors' Management
Information System"-had originally been
designed to track complicated illegal
currency transactions through intricate
systems of laundering and wire-
transfers; it could readily be
"enhanced" to track transactions by
banks and dummy corporations used by
terrorists and dope dealers. Hamilton's
Inslaw had sold PROMIS to the early
Reagan
Justice Department, which promptly
reneged on a $6 million payment due,
asserting that a portion of the
contract was not fulfilled. Inslaw went
bankrupt, and its ongoing lawsuit
against the Feds is still in the US
Court of Claims.

Promis Them Anything

Inslaw's attorneys, who include
former Attorney General Elliott
Richardson, present evidence that a
covert intelligence operation in fact
transformed PROMIS into an
unprecedented high-tech spying tool. It
seems a brilliant young CIA contract
agent out of Seattle named Michael
Riconosciuto, reputedly a past master
at clandestine drug chemistry and
computer hacking, not only "enhanced"
the PROMIS package to implement its use
in tracking international currency
transfers, but fitted it with a secret
"trap-door" access port that enabled US
espionage agencies to electronically
monitor its use by anyone who bought
it.

According to Richardson, PROMIS
was peddled to as many as 88 foreign
governments by "cut-out" front men
working for the Department of Justice,
the NSA and CIA. It was also purchased
by numerous international banks in
Switzerland and elsewhere, which were
interested in standardizing their wire-
transfer data. None of these buyers
knew about Riconosciuto's trap-door
application that not only allowed Uncle
Sam to monitor their money-laundering
in progress, but, whenever desired, to
invisibly modify it.

One of the "cut-out" peddlers of
this stolen, hyped-up and poisoned
money-tracking software took it to
Brazil in the mid-'80s, according to
Charles Hayes, who was there at the
time, as a CIA contract agent, in the
matter of the stolen gemstones. Dr.
Earl Brian ( convicted last year in Los
Angeles of multimillion-dollar
international financial fraud ) had been
California Secretary of Health during
Reagan's govenorship in the '70s.
Michael Riconosciuto has alleged that
some time after 1979, Brian was given
the PROMIS software to peddle around
the world to line his personal pockets.
It was during a sales trip to Brazil in
1985 that Dr. Brian allegedly told
Hayes about PROMIS.

Shortly after this Brazil
adventure, Hayes moved back to his
hometown of Nancy, KY, and, as his CIA
cover, set up a salvage company
specializing in computer parts-and also
began working with Riconosciuto. The
Fifth Column's Cray Model 3B
supercomputer was primarily
constructed, it is said, through
purchases at Department of Defense
auctions.

Initially, Hayes' Fifth Column's
work had been done under government
sponsorship. Veteran investigative
journalist James Norman has written
that besides penetrating the
international banking system, the
Column had initially succeeded in
downloading information from over 50
intelligence services around the globe,
including the Soviet KGB and the
Israeli Mossad.

Then Riconosciuto got busted for
running a methamphetamine lab in 1992,
and wound up in the federal
penitentiary, where he currently
resides. Around the same time, Hayes'
team discovered that the codes in the
PROMIS software featured not just one,
but two trap-door ports, suggesting
that Riconosciuto had planned to use
one of these himself, possibly to raid
accounts in banks using PROMIS.

Hayes says the Column shut down
Riconosciuto's port and created their
own multiple setup, by which through a
modem they could dial into a computer's
security systems and circumvent them
with a few keystrokes. Then Hayes
further customized the software to sort
through vast amounts of data; using a
Cray, the Column could handle
astounding data rates, which could be
quickly downloaded and analyzed off-
line in search of money flows and other
connections. ( In the virtual-reality
realm, "money" is merely stored
information; with the proper
authorization codes, computers can
electronically launch volumes of
digitized currency from one bank
account to another. )

Charging that the CIA "didn't hold
up their end" of some unspecified
bargain, Hayes says that he and the
other four Fifth Columnists decided to
go rogue. Having sole access to their
own software modifications, they were
now essentially creating their own
private currency tracking enterprise.

Plundering The Pirates

Secret "numbered" accounts in
Swiss banks, according to Hayes, are
not actually numbered but lettered,
with codes which appear on the lower
right-hand side of their documents;
using tracking software and a
sufficiently powerful computer, they
are not difficult to penetrate. Hayes
says the Column uncovered a $1.5
million bribe paid by the Cali cartel
to a witness against former Panama
dictator Manuel Noriega, who was
subsequently convicted in Florida of
narcotics crimes the
cartel may actually have committed.
Then after the Column in 1994 examined
the secret accounts of the Salinas
family in Europe, he says they passed
the incriminating data to the DEA-which
promptly alerted the Mexican
government.

"On an official basis," says
former Wharton School finance professor
and money-laundering expert Orlin
Grabbe, a friend of Hayes, "people
associated with the Fifth Column had
tried to take their evidence to the
appropriate legislative committees and
the Justice Department-and ran into a
sea of corruption. So they decided to
show them, 'We'll do our job anyway,
even if it's in a different form.' "

Others are more skeptical. One
well-placed HIGH TIMES source who
requested anonymity says he believes
Hayes and his associates may indeed
have accessed foreign accounts, but may
also have kept considerable sums for
themselves rather than just
transferring money to Federal Reserve
accounts.

The Fifth Column first surfaced
publicly in 1995, after James Norman,
then a senior editor at Forbes, was
alerted by Inslaw's Bill Hamilton to
Hayes. Having broken a cover story on
Iraqi arms-money laundering through oil
markets, Norman was tipped by Hamilton
to the PROMIS case: "Hamilton said
that, as crazy as the things Hayes said
seemed to be, they invariably had a way
of proving true six months later,"
Norman recalls.

So Norman, who describes himself
as a Liberal Democrat, visited Hayes at
the Beckett Hotel in Nancy, where they
spent an evening comparing notes. Hayes
was interested in connections Norman
had already discovered involving the
PROMIS software, the NSA and a Little
Rock bank-data-processing company then
called Systematics ( since absorbed by
Alltell Information Services ) .
Controlled by Arkansas billionaire
Jackson Stephens, Systematics,
according to Norman's sources, shuffled
money for covert CIA and NSA spying
operations, and was also involved in a
massive bank-spying effort called
"Follow The Money."

Sources also alleged a link to
Vincent Foster, the White House deputy
counsel whose death on July 20, 1993
was officially labeled a suicide.
Foster was said to be a behind-the-
scenes overseer for Systematics on
behalf of the NSA, even while he was a
partner with Hillary Clinton at the
Rose Law Firm in Little Rock.
( Alltell's chairman, Joe Ford, has
denied any connection between
Systematics and Vincent Foster. )

"Along about midnight," Norman
remembers, "Hayes dropped this
bombshel1 on me: 'You know, Vince was
under investigation when he died.' I
said, 'What investigation?' And Hayes,
in his inimitable way, took a long drag
on his cigarette, leaned back in his
swivel chair, and said, 'Well, it's es-
pie-oh-nage.' "

Hayes was only the first of more
than a dozen sources that Norman
eventually uncovered in reporting his
"Fostergate" story-for Media Bypass,
after Forbes backed away from
publishing it. Initially Hayes did not
tell Norman about the Fifth Column,
which he learned of from another
source. But the article was the first
published reference to the Column,
which had been monitoring Foster's
Swiss bank account.

"They had located it," Norman wrote,
"by tracking money flows from various
Israeli government accounts, after
finding Foster's name while secretly
snooping through the electronic files
of Israel's Mossad."

Foster, who was said to have had
access to highly sensitive US code-
encryption and data-security
information, allegedly was peddling
some of it to the Israelis. Norman
continued: "Foster's first indication
of trouble came when he inquired about
his coded bank account at Banca Della
Svizzera Italiana in Chiasso,
Switzerland, and found the account
empty. Foster was shocked to learn from
the bank that someone using his secret
authorization code had withdrawn all
$2.75 million he had stashed there, and
had moved it to, of all places, the US
Treasury."

In April 1995, Norman sent a
letter to White House press secretary
Michael McCurry concerning his article,
then slated to appear in that May's
issue of Forbes. Among the allegations
it spelled out were Foster's having
learned from Hillary Clinton, shortly
before his death, that he was under
investigation by the CIA; that the
President's wife was also a beneficiary
of funds from Foster's Swiss account;
that documents relating to the
Systematics company had been removed
from his office after his death, and
that Systematics was also involved in
laundering funds from covert
operations, "including drug and arms
sales related to activities in and
around Mena."

A week later, the White House
responded that these allegations were
"outrageous" and "baseless." Forbes, at
the last minute, killed Norman's story,
and so it
appeared in the August 1995 issue of
Media Bypass. Norman was keeping in
touch with Hayes, digging up new
information and consulting him for
leads.

From another source, months
earlier, Norman had acquired some
account numbers that had been found
among the personal effects of Barry
Seal, a cocaine-smuggling CIA asset
who'd worked out of the Mena airport,
and was murdered by Colombian hitmen in
Baton Rouge in 1986. ( See HighWitness
News, Jun. '86 ) . "In a suitcase in the
trunk of Seal's car was a scrap of
paper," says Norman, "with a curious
string of ten letters. One source who'd
been involved in money-laundering in
the past was quite confident it was a
Swiss bank-account number in encrypted
form." Norman passed it-KPFBMMBODB
along to Charles Hayes.

It was not long thereafter that
Norman was informed that his
"Fostergate" story was being abruptly
spiked, on orders from the very top:
Forbes publisher emeritus Caspar
Weinberger, Secretary of Defense under
Reagan. Weinberger's motivation was a
mystery to Norman until he subsequently
learned, from Hayes, that the encrypted
number from Barry Seal's effects had
led to
the Union Bank of Switzerland, and to
none other than Caspar Weinberger. The
Fifth Column had supposedly raided $2.3
million from that very account, and
then left a note in Weinberger's drop-
box in Bar Harbor, ME, listing the
number and a message: "You have been
had."

In August 1995, Norman sent Forbes
editor Jim Michaels a memo with further
corroboration for his Fostergate piece,
including evidence emerging from credit-
card and airline frequent flier records
indicating that Foster had made
periodic one-day trips to Switzerland.
Then Norman dropped his bomb on Forbes:
"If you have any doubts about the
ability of the CIA's Fifth Column to
raid foreign bank accounts and withdraw
funds, just ask Caspar Weinberger."
Enclosing a copy of documents found in
Seal's trunk, he added: "The clear
implication is that Caspar Weinberger,
while Secretary of Defense, was taking
kickbacks on drug and arms sales. A
cosignatory on this account appears to
be connected with [a relative of]
Howard Metzenbaum, the retired senator
from Ohio. We are talking about
bipartisan payola. Which helps explain
why Congress is so squeamish about
investigating this stuff."

After sending his internal memo,
Norman was told to go on indefinite
unpaid leave or to resign. As Fortune
noted in an article about its rival's
imbroglio that fall, "The embarrassing
memo was particularly ill-timed.
Malcolm S. 'Steve' Forbes Jr., the
magazine's 48-year-old editor-in chief,
is readying a campaign to run for
President on the GOP ticket." Fortune's
photo of Norman was captioned: "Ex-
reporter Norman's startling sleuthing
proved a little too gutsy."

Putting A Stop To It

Days later, the now-unemployed
Norman met with Hayes in Pittsburgh,
along with Orlin Grabbe of Reno, NV,
who had started examining the Foster
saga in a lengthy series on his World
Wide Web page
( http://www.aci.net/kalliste ) . "Hayes
made some astounding predictions,"
Norman recalls about pending
unprecedented departures of members of
Congress and the Senate. I pooh-poohed
the whole thing as ridiculous. He said,
'Wait and see.' " The Fifth Column,
Hayes claimed, was sending plain brown
envelopes to politicians containing
copies of their illicit accounts in
Switzerland and offshore banks in
places like the Cayman Islands. By
early 1996, Hayes' outlandish
prognostications indeed seemed to
becoming true, as dozens of prominent
senators and representatives announced
their retirements.

Norman says, "He would make
allusions to some geographical area or
other way of describing people other
than by name, who invariably would
announce they weren't going to run
again. It became almost like pin-the-
tail-on-the-donkey." As his findings
continued to appear in Media Bypass,
Norman began getting calls from other
mysterious sources, who he now believes
were government disinformation artists
"looking for stuff on Hayes."

Both Norman and Grabbe speak of
repeated attempts being made on Hayes'
life, including the sabotage of his
car's brakes on an occasion when all
three were riding in it near
Pittsburgh. Grabbe's Web page alleges
that one hit plot emanated from
Arkansas, farmed out through a New
Orleans crime syndicate which
contracted with a pair of ex-CIA
assassins.

There would certainly appear to be
plenty of people with reason to want
Hayes and the Fifth Column put into
permanent dry-dock. Hayes delights in
telling a story in which the Column
wire-transferred millions of dollars
into the US Treasury out of secret
Swiss accounts held by Nancy Reagan,
Henry Kissinger and Oliver North, and
then proceeded to play them off against
one another. This happened, Hayes says,
back when North was the front-runner in
the polls for a Senate seat from
Virginia, which he lost after Nancy got
an anonymous call
telling her North "had given out her
unlisted account number and they got
hers and Henry's money." ( North's use
of secret Swiss accounts in the Iran-
Contra affair is notorious. )

Hayes maintains that the Fifth
Column has been a leading source for
Whitewater investigator Kenneth Starr,
having even downloaded "the entire
White House database"-with plenty of
ammunition that's yet to surface
concerning FBI files provided to the
Clinton Administration and
contributions to Democratic campaigns.

In June last year, just as the
Column's purported activities emerged,
then-CIA director John Deutsch
announced plans to create a "cyberwar
center" to protect the nation against
the growing security threat posed by
computer hackers. Attacks on
international wire transfers, he told
the Senate, were of special concern.
( As to why the banks don't just change
their PROMIS software, Hayes says it's
not that easy to do. Besides, he
claims, the banks have been informed
that if they try to do that, their
competitors will receive a printout
listing all their illicit moneys. )

Then last September, some 16 FBI
and Secret Service agents in four cars
showed up in Nancy, asking questions
about Hayes.Some say they were also
searching for the Column's Cray
supercomputer, said to have been
installed in the back of a 48-foot
tractor-trailer complete with backup
power supply.

And on October 22, just before a
meeting Hayes had arranged with some
oil-company executives in the Mellon
Bank case, the FBI busted him at his
residence on the murder-for-hire
charge. It was no secret that Hayes and
his son, John Anthony, were involved in
an $800,000 court property fight over
Hayes' mother's will. But after
Charles' arrest, John Anthony Hayes
assured a local newspaper that if his
dad had really wanted him out of the
way, he'd have handled it himself.

Denied bond in federal court
nevertheless, Hayes was remanded to the
Laurel County Detention Center to await
trial. Also denied the right to act as
his own counsel, he hired charismatic
Lexington attorney Gatewood Galbraith.

The January trial was, to say the
least, bizarre. The star prosecution
witness, Lawrence W. Myers, had
interviewed Hayes for a magazine
article last August, and then called
the FBI office in Birmingham, AL, to
report that Hayes was looking to have
someone killed. FBI agent Don
Yarborough, posing as a would-be hit
man, contacted Hayes, who spoke with
him about the prospective murder over
an open phone line, and used his own
return address on a packet of documents
he sent to this make-believe assassin.
The phone tapes revealed Hayes offering
to provide $5,000, seven days after his
son's propose

proposed murder, at "the best
place to meet-a funeral office." In his
testimony, Hayes said he "figured the
government was getting ready to set up
something, so I thought it would be a
good time to reverse it on 'em... I
figured I would be able to get them
caught in a trap."

Hayes had been on CIA contract
since age 19, he stated under oath. The
Fifth Column had "split off" from Bill
Casey's Squad D to "champion a lot of
peoples' rights." Asked by Galbraith to
name names of politicians forced to
resign because of the Column's
findings, Hayes singled out former
Maine senator William Cohen ( recently
named Secretary of Defense ) and
Colorado senator Pat Schroeder. ( No
direct evidence has been produced
concerning either of Hayes' courtroom
allegations. ) When he began describing
how Vince Foster "had been relieved of
a bank account in Bern, Switzerland,"
the judge ruled that such detail "must
be shown to be necessary" to the
defense; Foster's name was not
mentioned again.

At the end of the trial's fourth
day, new information surfaced
concerning Lawrence Myers' background.
In 1985, he had been charged with
extortion and spent a year in a
psychiatric facility; a felony warrant
for him remained active in California.
It also came out that he had been
sharing information on several cases
with the FBI, which had doctored "rap
sheets" to hide his background.

The judge granted a two-week
continuance, but after the trial
resumed on January 27, refused to allow
most of the damaging information about
Myers into evidence. [Conetta]
Williamson, an investigator for the
Tennessee attorney general's office,
described him in testimony as "a
professional and pathological liar."
Reporter Norman testified that his
investigation confirmed that Hayes "had
a long relationship with the CIA as a
contract agent"-which was denied in
three CIA affidavits later introduced
by the prosecution. That was when Hayes
took the stand to reveal his alias and
contract number.

But the jury believed the tapes
incriminated Hayes. "The main thing I
can't understand," said one juror
after the guilty verdict, "is how he
thought he could entrap the
government."

Marvin Miller, a prominent
Washington criminal-defense attorney
with years of experience in espionage
cases, is drafting a motion for a new
trial. "We believe there are
significant errors that occurred at the
trial," he says. "The jury simply was
not allowed to hear a number of things
that could have reasonably changed
their decision."

Awaiting his May sentencing, Hayes
says from his cell: "Hey, I love my
government. They trained me well. And
the Fifth Column ain't out of business
yet."
###

Mike Sheller: Pardon, but Newton was in many ways a man of the medieval world as he was of the renaissance. You might want to look up some biographies about him before debating the subject. http://newton.gws.uky.edu/ http://wwwcn.cern.ch/~mcnab/n/OtherWWW.html The second is more complete but there are more dead ends.

Panda, look at two companys that while not oil producers are refiners. Holly Corp and Giant Petroleum. Holly owns Navajo Refining and is spending boocoo denero in upgrading its Lovington NM and Artesia NM Refinerys. Both refinerys get their feedstock from local oil fields. Oil is only three days from the field to the refinery. While they could get whipsawed in a price spike they can recover quickly. Also they are not dependant upon the Cushing market for pricing. Holly has expanded its El Paso/Juarez market and will soon be expanding the Albuquerque/Santa Fe markets. They are also able to put refined products into Tuscson and Pheonix. These areas have the best margins in the US. Giant refines Four Corners NM and southern Utah crude oil. They deliver to the Albuquerque and Truck Stops along I-40. I am buying these strickly as a defensive move. If there is a disruption of supplies the first big hit will be in gasoline and diesel fuels. Not only is the US a net importer of crude oil we are also importing almost 30% of our refined products. The midwest refinerys can get a lot of feedstock but it takes three weeks or longer then it is another three to four weeks to get the refined product to markets. If there is a supply disruption hold on to your hat. There is no longer enough refining capicity to meet demand in the US. With all refinerys running 100% there will still be a shortfall of product. I would not want to live in the NYC or LA Basin when there is a disruption. Due to environmental regulations refinerys have shut down and they cannot be brought back up. If the mid East blows up and there is a crude oil supply disruption,and still IMHO the supprise wont come from here, the US will be in a crippling position. Our industrials are more dependant upon imported crude oil tham ever. With just in time inventorys riding around in truck trailers on the interstate a disruption of diesel supplies could shut industries down in one day. And remenber it is going to take at least three weeks to restore supplies. It seems as a country we did not learn the lessons of the seventies. Thats why I am betting on these two small refiners and marketers.

Aurator--enjoyed your posts immensely yesterday.
Good to see you're holding our end of the discussion up for the Antipodean brotherhood. Was also glad to hear that you Kiwis have found a second use for sheep. I didn't know that they could be included in the statistical database to help raise a whole nations average I.Q.. More to the subject--I'm sure that there are a lot of goldbugs on this site who are badly in need of a staple gun at the moment. Patience, friends, the golden worm is turning and it will soon be your turn to laugh. In the meantime, stay away from those sanding belts and keep the faith.

What has happened to Puetz? Being a pessimist at heart, I find myself missing his routine apocoliptic commentary.

Mike Sheller: "I have bought Golden opinions from all sorts of people."
Macbeth, in Macbeth, act 1, sc. 7.

EB: I just got back from viewing "Conspiracy Theory". You are scaring me. : )

Gold will rise or fall ( probably fall ) but we need to look forward to building a system based on Democratic Socialism and away from the rape the producer and reward the non producer big corp stock option leach/ not to mention govt corp leaches. The Govt should benefit the broad base of people without reference to the needs of the rich elite. Let em eat brie!!!

oldman -- Wished I had gotten back before you left for the time being. I have to say, per your scenario of a market turning opposite of the news is that I hope the news is available to us before the actual turn! Sometimes that seems not to be the case. In other words, the price movement seems to be the best indicator. I.E., you pull the trigger and ask questions after. That HAS to be the only way I will play the scene! I cannot put myself in the position of having to depend on a piece of news, no matter how good or bad it may be. To me, the 'news', is 'built' into the current price and that remains all that is viable. That is news enough for me. I do however certainly agree that when the commodity moves against the news that the new trend is in hand! Getting the news in time though....! I'll go with price movement in a heartbeat first! That's dependable first! With best regards...!

George your 21:09 seems to be insightful and well reasoned as always. Now a question, do you believe that during the coming decade, Gold may outperform say the DOW or S & P 500 in general? Or should it remain a minor position as hedge/insurance/etc.?

6pak ( 18:42 ) : Many thanks for that inspiratational post. Someday I would like to browse in your library.

Steve and family CONGRATS ON PURDUE/ The Fightin' Boilermakers of West Lafayette. Best o Luck to you and Luke in your next game. Wonderin why you never mention the "makers" even though you live in W. Lafayette.

Nick Thanks mate, now if you Aussies could just learn to play football:- )

All:
"I have never seen the philosophers stone that turns everything into gold, but I have known the pursuit of it turn a mans gold into lead" Benjamin Franklin. Poor Richards Almanac 1738.