I have not traded the Rydex Precious Metals mutual fund ( XAU ) for some time but with the uncertainty of the direction of the DOW, it looks more promising this week. We have had 3 down closing weeks which usually means we close higher next Friday, the 4th week.

Also, we have not had a weekly close under 92 and we aren't far
away. I am looking to possibly buy in this week as we are near
some short-term support, although after a couple day bounce we
might head lower still. I will update when I decide to buy.

LGB -- If I may; You've heard the commercial, 'never leave home without it', for the plastic? Perhaps at that time, you won't leave home without gold/silver, in one form or another. Let's see, one small golden thread woven into each small bill. The bill part for 'handling' purposes. The thread being the exact value of the face amount. I designate the new bill 'ounce', in either gold, silver, platinum, or parts thereof. That in itself will be hard to cheat. The bottom line though is that we HAVE TO pay value for value at the transaction! Anything else is cheating someone along the line. Money as we know it today is no more than debt. It is ALL loaned into existence. You have to pay it back WITH interest. To do that, you have to borrow MORE into existence to pay the interest. And so the cycle goes. Balanced bugget in this country? Sure, maybe, but it WILL CERTAINLY be at someones expense! Think about what I've just stated about our money system. Then think upon it a bit more. Drive it into your brain. Put it in a circle. Now, tell me how that debt gets paid off. Have you yet come to the conclusion that you have to borrow your way out of todays debt? Now you have tomorrows debt. ETC, ETC! But, you haven't found the way out yet, have you? And under ANY debt based system, you will find that the only way out is to SCRAP the WHOLE MESS! And it will do so on its own with or without your personal approval! You may find yourself being a tax paying, interest paying, fee paying, almighty slave at that point, but it WILL do it! Now, LETS HAVE SOME FUN!

I have not traded the Rydex Precious Metals mutual fund ( XAU ) for some time but with the uncertainty of the direction of the DOW, it looks more promising this week. We have had 3 down closing weeks which usually means we close higher next Friday, the 4th week.

Also, we have not had a weekly close under 92 and we aren't far
away. I am looking to possibly buy in this week as we are near
some short-term support, although after a couple day bounce we
might head lower still. I will update when I decide to buy.

LGB -- If I may; You've heard the commercial, 'never leave home without it', for the plastic? Perhaps at that time, you won't leave home without gold/silver, in one form or another. Let's see, one small golden thread woven into each small bill. The bill part for 'handling' purposes. The thread being the exact value of the face amount. I designate the new bill 'ounce', in either gold, silver, platinum, or parts thereof. That in itself will be hard to cheat. The bottom line though is that we HAVE TO pay value for value at the transaction! Anything else is cheating someone along the line. Money as we know it today is no more than debt. It is ALL loaned into existence. You have to pay it back WITH interest. To do that, you have to borrow MORE into existence to pay the interest. And so the cycle goes. Balanced bugget in this country? Sure, maybe, but it WILL CERTAINLY be at someones expense! Think about what I've just stated about our money system. Then think upon it a bit more. Drive it into your brain. Put it in a circle. Now, tell me how that debt gets paid off. Have you yet come to the conclusion that you have to borrow your way out of todays debt? Now you have tomorrows debt. ETC, ETC! But, you haven't found the way out yet, have you? And under ANY debt based system, you will find that the only way out is to SCRAP the WHOLE MESS! And it will do so on its own with or without your personal approval! You may find yourself being a tax paying, interest paying, fee paying, almighty slave at that point, but it WILL do it! Now, LETS HAVE SOME FUN!

EB -- May I ask that you 'link' these long articles rather than posting them here, if at all possible. In posting them here you take a lot of valuable bandwidth and may be violating copyright laws to boot. I'd hate to have you get yelled at by someone. Take note that I'm not yet yelling at you. But thanks for the info! I know you have the best intents at heart! Best regards!

EB -- May I ask that you 'link' these long articles rather than posting them here, if at all possible. In posting them here you take a lot of valuable bandwidth and may be violating copyright laws to boot. I'd hate to have you get yelled at by someone. Take note that I'm not yet yelling at you. But thanks for the info! I know you have the best intents at heart! Best regards!

George S. Cole -- Re: your 21:09; Internals can weaken immensely with a big fall in stox. A LOT of new lows can accompany that! So far, in the recent pullback that hasn't happened. Are these to be expected to happen during a large upmove? If not, the next downdraft? Ever? I know this is important 'stuff' but somehow I just 'feel' that something differnet just might be in the wind. Whatever. I guess that's why I like the charts. Those seem to be all telling by the minute!

George S. Cole -- Re: your 21:09; Internals can weaken immensely with a big fall in stox. A LOT of new lows can accompany that! So far, in the recent pullback that hasn't happened. Are these to be expected to happen during a large upmove? If not, the next downdraft? Ever? I know this is important 'stuff' but somehow I just 'feel' that something differnet just might be in the wind. Whatever. I guess that's why I like the charts. Those seem to be all telling by the minute!

No Dragon Yet
John R Williams and Joshua N. Feinman,Global Market Economists,Bankers Trust Securities


The US economy continues to spin a near-fairy-tale success story of high-flying growth and low-level inflation, even as investors nervously wait to see whether the inflation dragon will spoil the plot.

http://www.lp-llc.com/cents/williams.shtml

No Dragon Yet
John R Williams and Joshua N. Feinman,Global Market Economists,Bankers Trust Securities


The US economy continues to spin a near-fairy-tale success story of high-flying growth and low-level inflation, even as investors nervously wait to see whether the inflation dragon will spoil the plot.

http://www.lp-llc.com/cents/williams.shtml

Thanks Earl, for your comments. My library is modest, I have a problem
keeping my books. I like to share with others, and you know what happens.
Yes, I do not get them back. Well, the upside, maybe those books will be
borrowed again, by others, and many more, will gain knowledge eh!
Besides which, my wife often asks me to explain, what am I going to do
with all these old books, so, I loan them out, to prove they are worthwhile. I don't get them back, and she is happy. : ) : ) : ) : )

This is what makes this Kitco site so great. Wonderful people, sharing
knowledge, and exchanging ideas, and brainstorming. Take care.

Thanks Earl, for your comments. My library is modest, I have a problem
keeping my books. I like to share with others, and you know what happens.
Yes, I do not get them back. Well, the upside, maybe those books will be
borrowed again, by others, and many more, will gain knowledge eh!
Besides which, my wife often asks me to explain, what am I going to do
with all these old books, so, I loan them out, to prove they are worthwhile. I don't get them back, and she is happy. : ) : ) : ) : )

This is what makes this Kitco site so great. Wonderful people, sharing
knowledge, and exchanging ideas, and brainstorming. Take care.

Aurator -- the stock market will continue to rise in the face of any possible news they can make 'positive', and even if they can't make sound perfect. And if the market itself can't do it, the Fed will intervene to help at precise moments. This will continue until all pertinent parties, the small investor excluded, has gotten its butt out. Then you may expect the decline of all declines to commence! And you thought the government was here for US! HAR! Watch your backside DOC! It all will fit perfectly into some jack-boot plan, no doubt! My opinion only, of course. Time tells all!

Aurator -- the stock market will continue to rise in the face of any possible news they can make 'positive', and even if they can't make sound perfect. And if the market itself can't do it, the Fed will intervene to help at precise moments. This will continue until all pertinent parties, the small investor excluded, has gotten its butt out. Then you may expect the decline of all declines to commence! And you thought the government was here for US! HAR! Watch your backside DOC! It all will fit perfectly into some jack-boot plan, no doubt! My opinion only, of course. Time tells all!

'deja vu'

how curious is this time
it sounds a similar rhyme
of late '94
and 1st quarter '95

while even yet & even now
the energy sector, as always
is the wild card's 'child'

so heating oil, & crude oil too
complete their bottoming lows
while the D-Mark & Sw-Franc
begin their dutiful advance

and the dollar can no longer
ignore it's haunting shadow's
shining, foreboding face
as trembling tremors shake the foundation
of this very time and place

and every-one of us must accept
the changing face
of this inhuman disgrace

reserve currency of the world
sold out, to the highest bidder
and then to the lowest
thrashed
and thrashing
upon all of the human-race

the imperial operators of paper-machines
exploiters of humanity
each & every one
the humble and destitute
and me & you
too

in their arrogance, and feigned control
the truth will find them
corrupted and corrupt
pretending that they can manipulate the world
and money
for them to use

their false 'world of paper-mache'
is heating up
too much, too hot
erupting, over-flowing lava
burning over, flowing down ...
ultimately, it will purify their rot

and in the ashen ash
of burning coals, searing them clean
the coals of yellow and white

we will find gold and silver
and utter delight

'deja vu'

how curious is this time
it sounds a similar rhyme
of late '94
and 1st quarter '95

while even yet & even now
the energy sector, as always
is the wild card's 'child'

so heating oil, & crude oil too
complete their bottoming lows
while the D-Mark & Sw-Franc
begin their dutiful advance

and the dollar can no longer
ignore it's haunting shadow's
shining, foreboding face
as trembling tremors shake the foundation
of this very time and place

and every-one of us must accept
the changing face
of this inhuman disgrace

reserve currency of the world
sold out, to the highest bidder
and then to the lowest
thrashed
and thrashing
upon all of the human-race

the imperial operators of paper-machines
exploiters of humanity
each & every one
the humble and destitute
and me & you
too

in their arrogance, and feigned control
the truth will find them
corrupted and corrupt
pretending that they can manipulate the world
and money
for them to use

their false 'world of paper-mache'
is heating up
too much, too hot
erupting, over-flowing lava
burning over, flowing down ...
ultimately, it will purify their rot

and in the ashen ash
of burning coals, searing them clean
the coals of yellow and white

we will find gold and silver
and utter delight

One simple statement: I find it most 'interesting' that ALL countries have debts!

One simple statement: I find it most 'interesting' that ALL countries have debts!

Bob, more on dollar cost averaging
http://www.latimes.com:80/HOME/NEWS/BUSINESS/MUTUALS/
"When you dollar-cost average, the benefits depend on the volatility of the fund and the timing of the investment," explained Jim Raker, a senior research analyst at Morningstar. This doesn't necessarily mean you would be better off investing systematically instead of in a lump sum--assuming you have the choice. In a rising market, an investor who puts a lump sum in a fund will accumulate returns on the full amount every year and end up richer at the end of five years than one who invests the same amount in systematic increments each month over five years. But in a falling market, the systematic investor would be richer, having lost less money."

( Which will of course be of great comfort )

Then again averaging down is tantamount to financial suicide see Zurich XV. Perseverance is good for spiders and kings, not so good for investors.

Bob, more on dollar cost averaging
http://www.latimes.com:80/HOME/NEWS/BUSINESS/MUTUALS/
"When you dollar-cost average, the benefits depend on the volatility of the fund and the timing of the investment," explained Jim Raker, a senior research analyst at Morningstar. This doesn't necessarily mean you would be better off investing systematically instead of in a lump sum--assuming you have the choice. In a rising market, an investor who puts a lump sum in a fund will accumulate returns on the full amount every year and end up richer at the end of five years than one who invests the same amount in systematic increments each month over five years. But in a falling market, the systematic investor would be richer, having lost less money."

( Which will of course be of great comfort )

Then again averaging down is tantamount to financial suicide see Zurich XV. Perseverance is good for spiders and kings, not so good for investors.

Eldorado, right on the button as usual :- )

Eldorado, right on the button as usual :- )

El Dorado, re your 00:10, I do agree that it's a massive pyramid scheme, and I have a personal anathema to debt myself, ( after all we pay almost fourth of our Fed Taxes to service the damn debt! ) . However, going back to the "good old days" of gold backed "stable" currency is no something I'd like to see done. Those were not propsperous times in the early 30's. Keynesians may be right, who knows? In any case, expanding debt in an expanding economy works as long as the people have confidence. So far, in the last few decades, confidence has been running pretty high. If we'd stuck with a more "absolute" intrinsic value based currency, I doubt we would have had anything close to the economic and social gains we see today. Even if a bubble burts someday, I believe we're way ahead of the game, for having played it as it's been played. certainly imperfect, but perhaps a whole lot better than worldwide cycles of depression, decade after decade. We humans may be adaptable and clever enough to find ways out of calamity yet.

RJ -- Is that you maskerading as David's Deja Vu, or is he your brother? Poetry sounds somehow 'familiar'. In any case, it does strike a cord, and I give a courtly bow to the real author!

Earl, where the hell are you with your fine epitomes?

I am not EP. I've been out for the eve.

away...to tune in Sat. Night Live...

EB

where's Ted?!?

An Apology and Good-bye

by J. Orlin Grabbe

Poor Jackson Stephens. Stephens is one of the finest billionaires this country has ever produced, and the notion that he would hire assassins is ludicrous. But I had some rubes going there for a while. And Richard Mellon Scaife. Hell, the Sarah Scaife Foundation donates to the CATO Institute, a libertarian think tank I have supported for a decade and a half. You think I was serious about Scaife's goons messing with the car Charles Hayes, Jim Norman, and I were riding about in Pittsburgh? Well,
we were actually coming back from a dinner with Marianne Gasior, who is noted for helping get Kennametal convicted for money laundering and dealing with Iraq during the Gulf War. I just made up the story to feed her paranoia that elements of the Pittsburgh nuclear network were following her.

Well, that's enough confession. If you believed anything I posted, it was your problem, your desire to believe.

Yes, better get used to it. Things never change. You right-wingers ( and left ones too ) are going to be stuck with the Clintons for four more years. And I myself am looking forward to it, or else nothing in this article is true.

June 26, 1996

http://www.europa.com/~johnlf/og/apology.htm

Dragon will breathe life into Asia
Top 10 Asia funds over one year

IF YOU have money in Asian funds, should you sell? If you do not, should you buy? The region has been very volatile lately and many Asian-fund investors are sitting on paper losses.
....In Malaysia, the market rose 12.4% overnight on the news that the government was lifting currency controls. Those are the markets that have fallen furthest and have furthest to rise. Maybe they are also due for a free-market boom.
http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/Sunday-Times/frontpage.html?1971058

I know there are some aussies AND new zealanders here. Aurator, are you NZ? Kiwi - ? Nick - I know about you mate. But don't you ALL like sheep? You're a fine bunch of lads anyway... I don't care what your 'cousins' ( GB ) say about you ;-^ ) . Met a 'mate' in LAX one day @ 5:00pm. He had been there since 9:00am holding up the bar. Aside from a slight stumble when going to the head and a very slight slur he was a-ok. We continued to drink like fish, trying ALL the local flavors and I missed my flight, he kept saying "c'mon mate, just ONE more!" and I kept sitting back down...God we had Fun. You guys are a good laugh. And I won't ever bring up "The Cup"...whoops!

AWAY...to call Dennis C...we're gonna get it BACK!
EB

LGB -- I'll keep it short: Enjoy it while it lasts! Hope you got a DEEP foxhole dug! And one more thing: I think we could be living in a virtual 'golden age' if it were not for the debt based system! Do not confuse personal type debt with what I'm talking about here. This is MUCH more devious! Go back and re-explore my previous posting on the subject once again. Think about it. Understand it. Explore its implications and ramifications. If you can still same the same thing after having done so, I'm afraid I'm going to have to ask for an explicit explanation of your rational, its implications, and its ramifications! Those postings will be here for all to see. Are you ready to enjoin the 'argument' of the twentieth century? ( Actually, the lie of ages! )

EB am a NZ'er, mate. ;- ) which is why I took umbrage at being called an aussie. ;- ) ) Umbrage, as in eclipse. :- ) ) )
EP did not look like you bro.

George Soros: DROP BY MORE OFTEN! PLEASE! And to all those people he
commended; thankyou for enlightening and educating me this past year!

http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html

Steven Jon Kaplan--"The trader's commitments indicator has risen from STRONGLY BULLISH to EXTREMELY BULLISH".
When the traders start buying gold, I sit up and pay attention!!

EB--Good on yer mate! I hope it was Aussie beer you were drinking. Your reference to Kiwis=New Zealanders is correct. We actually get on quite well with them--after all about half of them are living over here in OZ--ON WELFARE!! New Zealand's two major exports are sheep and their citizens! Still--we put up with em. Any country that makes Steinlager can't be all bad.

6pak -- I like that last sentence which leaves him an out. Most interesting! If a lier always lies, is he telling the truth? does two negatives make a positive? If a lier tells part of the truth, which part is it? How can one ever tell where disinformation ends? Whatever be the case, his home site does have some good info on crytograpy, and perhaps a few other things. Still worth exploring!

Not me - nope. I have never posted under a nom de plume. Thanks for thinking it was me. Twas not, but I liked it too.

6pak -- One more thing, the best liers ALWAYS mix in a liberal amount of truth! Now to separate the wheat from the chaff!

Sorry for the delay in replying. Was out all day after the post.
The talk show was "Money Talks" and airs 9:30 to 11:00 a.m. Saturdays
on 630 CHED in Edmonton - or QR77 in Calgary. It's simulcast across Canada on the WIC radio network.
The episode was, of course, aired September 13th.
Cheers

EB On the America's Cup, ( Stg Silver ) do you know that it was smashed by a maori wielding a large sledge-hammer earlier this year as an act of political protest, fer goodness sake, against colonial oppression?
Good luck taking it back, but thanks for reminding me that the Australian entry last time sank..
here is a good URL, there are several picks of my little town...beaches mon, beaches everywhere

http://www.ac2000.co.nz/

RJ -- You could have that personage stand in for you when you are on vacation! Very nice, indeed! I do notice though that you have slackened off of late in the 'verbage' department. ( hope i'm not stepping on 'toes' in saying so. ) . I hope all is well. Perhaps, like me, you just got burned out for a spell. In any case, I must say that I kind of miss the 'verbosity' of the elder days. Got to get Earl back here more often too! Best regards!

EB & Nick, and half the Australians living in New Zealand are in prison, so we figure we're kinda even. ;-}

Sounds like someone is going to get a little wet from hurricane Linda out there. So far, the eye is not expected to actually come ashore ( thankfully! ) , but a 'bit' of wind and water is. It's quite amazing how big and strong it has gotten to be in such a short period of time and travel! Has anyone any remembrance or data of such occurring in the past?

Eldorado--Hurricane Linda is the strongest Eastern Pacific Hurricane ever recorded, and is directly related to El Nino. Good article and explanation-- http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/chronicle/article.cgi?file=MN71928.DTL&directory... ( hope URL is right- will retry if not )

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/chronicle/article.cgi?file=MN71928.DTL&directory...

Last try! http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/chronicle/article.cgi?file=MN71928.DTL&directory

I give up! anyway, if you are interested, go to the Sat. Sept 13 issue of the San Francisco Chronicle page A1 and you'll find it.

Auric -- Also got some good data and pictures at this site: http://www.weatherwatchers.org/tropical/1997/linda/

Eldorado--Excellent site. Very sobering how this awesome force just seemingly sprang up out of nowhere 5 days ago. And to think that this El Nino has not reached its full potential yet! This is a subject that I am sure will be revisited here often in the weeks and months ahead. Off to bed now. G'night all.

Umm. I found this in virtual Threadneedle Street, it is all news to me, perhaps not for kitco. Wouldn't mind playing poker with this deferred settlement thing, all sorts of possibilities. Trading on the LBMA, is this paper on LBMA volumes???

Deferred Settlement or Account/Account trading as it is sometimes called, is a system which has found favour, in particular, with Middle Eastern traders. It is, basically, trading with no fixed settlement date. The system works thus:
a ) The customer opens two accounts with a bullion dealer: one is a gold account; the other is a Dollar account.
b ) When the customer buys gold for spot delivery, his gold account will be credited with the relevant ounces of gold, value two working days after the day the trade is done. At the sametime, his Dollar account will be debited with the Dollars needed to pay for the gold. If he sells gold, his gold account is debited with the ounces and his Dollar account credited with the proceeds.
c ) Interest is payable on credit balances on the Dollar account andcharged on debit balances. Typically, the spread between the borrowing and lending rates for the Dollars is 1.50% p.a.; these rates reflect the net between current gold and Eurodollar yields.
d ) Settlement of the account occurs only when the customer liquidates his position, in which case profits or losses on the Dollar account must be settled in full; or when a customer wishes to take or make delivery, in which case full delivery and settlement aremade, as though a spot transaction had taken place.
e ) Deferred settlement trading is subject to credit agreements between bullion dealers and their customers. These may include anunsecured loss limit, or may require initial margin to be paid.Once any loss limit is exceeded, all further losses must be met in full.

http://www.standardcharteredbank.com/mo/gold.html

NICK: Yours at 22:47, Second use for sheep. Did you hear that there is a top secret installation in New Zealand where they have all their best scientists working on the problem of teaching sheep how to cook?

Donald - excellent. Have a look at this gold mine, scroll down to
Suisse Gold Bullion Resources:


http://home.earthlink.net/~suisse/spchom20.htm
This should not be missed ;= ) )

Just back from a THIRTY-SIX hour down-time by my brilliant ISP....should be called INSP....Internet non-service provider....six weeks ago got an e-mail from my INSP sayin there would be 3-4 days of disruptions due to them upgrading ( ?? ) their system....probably have had approx. THREE days where the system worked all day since....good work guys!...Routing problems they say we keep havin....and all this happening in the most socialized-unionized-big gov'mentized part of Canada....Yes, this is WW's UTOPIA where everything works like a charm....where there is great attention to detail ( snicker...snicker.... ) where virtually NO ONE takes responsibity for their actions.....where virtually everyone expects gov'ment to do everything including wipe their FAT asses as the overwhelming majority are extremly obese and smoke cigerettes...and then complain about why we have one of the highest cancer rates in all of Canada....Must be the gov'ments fault....eh!....the future according to WW...hahaha..this is the laboratory and so far WW's way gets an F-....You may be sayin..."quit yer whinin and go with another ISP"....been there...done that.....STARTED off with the only alternative ISP and after 2 faulty discs and THREE days of them not vein able ta get me online ( they'd say,"just call our friendly technical support team....everytime I had to the average wait ( while listening to their stinkin musac ) was approx 50 minutes.....Is somethin wrong with this picture????....and here I always thought big gov'ment and UNIONS could run an EFFICENT society....har har har....I'm ramlin but then I've been cruely cut off from cyber-SPACE again.....good thing I'm a patient person...again...har har har...Those people ( INSP ) must regret the day they signed me up....I don't hesitate to complain ( but in a pleasant tone har har ) and got half off on my last months bill and it'll be ditto for this one if this sh!I continues.....The typical ( in WW's utopia ) reaction would be..."oh well, there's not much we can do about it...that's just the way things are" leemings bein led ta slaughter....Now lets see if I can actually post....or are we havin routing problems.....AGAIN!...

Great-great-grand-daughter of Chinese gold-rusher to Gabriel's Gully insists it is bed-time in godzone.
BBLL
aurator

Hi EB!! did my last post answer yer damn question?????....what did ya think....I was arrested er somethin???....I'm back and loaded fer bear!!!
....feel better gettin that INSP sh!t off my chest....and now I can say "good mornin all" ......without the sarcasm drippin off my tongue as I politely convese with my friendly INSP tech rep....Weather report: Fog so damn thick I can't see nothin....what the hell else is new??? Back for more java...

BADGER: Here is the IMF information you requested.
Holdings of Gold

The IMF holds 3,217,341 kilograms of gold ( 103.4 million fine ounces ) at designated depositories,
valued in the IMF's financial statements at SDR 3.6 billion on the basis of SDR 35 per ounce
( except for a minor amount accepted by the Fund in 1992 in partial settlement of a member's
overdue obligations, and valued at the then-prevailing market price ) . Valued at current market
prices, the IMF's holdings amount to SDR 26.7 billion ( $36.8 billion ) . These holdings represent the
balance of the IMF's stock of gold after the gold auctions and the restitution of gold to members in
the period 1976-80. While gold is reflected as an asset in the IMF's balance sheet, it is not used in
the Fund's operations and transactions. According to Article V, Section 12 ( b ) of the IMF's
Articles of Agreement, any transactions in gold by the IMF require an 85 percent majority of the
total voting power of the IMF. The IMF may sell gold outright on the basis of prevailing market
prices; it may accept gold in the discharge of a member's obligations to the IMF at an agreed price
on the basis of prices in the market at the time of acceptance. The IMF does not have the authority
to engage in any other gold transactions, e.g., loans, leases, swaps, or use of gold as collateral, and
the IMF does not have the authority to buy gold.

TED: Good Morning! You seem a bit testy this morning. Is this the weekend syndrome again? or just bluster for show to keep certain Kitcoites in line?

BADGER: On the constitutional requirement of Switzerland to hold 40% of the currency backing in gold. There was a post on it here once a few weeks ago. As I recall it requires a national referendum and one has been scheduled. April? I have not been able to locate the information yet.

BADGER: You may also find this information helpful.
3. THE LEGAL STATUS OF THE BIS, ITS ISSUED
SHARE CAPITAL, AND ITS SHAREHOLDING
CENTRAL BANKS

In common with many of its founding central banks in 1930, the BIS
was given the legal structure of a limited company with an issued share
capital. The Hague Agreements nevertheless established the BIS as an
international organisation governed by international law with the
privileges and immunities necessary for the performance of its functions.
The international legal personality of the BIS and the privileges and
immunities which it has enjoyed in Switzerland since its foundation were
confirmed in the Headquarters Agreement which was concluded by the
Bank with the Swiss Federal Council on 10th February 1987. It is
apparent from that Agreement that the BIS has a legal status in
Switzerland similar to that accorded to the many other international
organisations which have been established there since 1930. It should be
added that the BIS is subject neither to the Swiss Federal Law
concerning Banks and Savings Banks nor to the provisions of Swiss
Company Law.

The authorised share capital of the Bank is 1,500 million gold francs,
divided into 600,000 shares of equal nominal value ( 2,500 gold francs
per share ) . At the close of the financial year 517,125 shares were in
issue and, in accordance with Article 7 of the Statutes of the BIS, they
are paid up to the extent of 25% of their nominal value ( 625 gold francs
per share ) . The amount of the paid-up capital appearing in the Balance
Sheet of the BIS at 31st March 1997 thus stands at 323.2 million gold
francs.

The gold franc of the BIS has a gold weight of just over 0.29 of a
gramme of fine gold, which is identical with the gold parity of the Swiss
franc from the foundation of the BIS in 1930 until September 1936
when, after a number of leading countries had left the gold standard, the
gold parity of the Swiss franc was suspended. The BIS employs the gold
franc solely as a unit of account for balance-sheet purposes, assets and
liabilities in US dollars being converted into gold francs at the fixed rate
of US$ 208 per ounce of fine gold ( equivalent to 1 gold franc = US$
1.94 ) and all other items in currencies being converted into gold francs
on the basis of market rates against the US dollar.

Mornin Donald!....TESTY....who me???? ya should hear me when I really get MAD.....am actually in a good mellow mood, bein soothed my the dense fog....just don't get me started on "liberal thought ( ? ) ", Liberal politicians, socialism, CORRUPT unions,Dick Gephardt, Al Sharpton ( WW must em too ) ....speakin of Al, does he remind anyone else of "Bonfire of the Vanities" and the Abner Louiema ( SP ) saga in NYC....both are like straight from the book.....Al Sharpton for mayor of NYC.....makes me glad I live in CANADA!....and not in my X-state of Vermont,where IDIOTS and liberals also rule.....and they don't have no ocean.....just Ben+ Jerrys ice cream ( over priced liberal-socialistic crap ice-cream ) and Bernie ( snicker..snicker ) Sanders,the only SOCIALIST rep in the U.S.of A...but typically Bernie ain't from Vermont ( unless ya call Brooklyn part of Vermont ) and I would wager WW ain't from Vermont neither....When I moved to Vermont over twenty years ago, the locals ( natives ) basically ran the show but then came the invasion of the left-wing radical rainbow people, also known as "Flatlanders" ...of which WW must be ONE....Back for more Java.....
...

Puetz: You have TWO days till the 16th.....will it be a crash-UP....at least yer "Boilermakers" upset the "fightin Irish"....eh!....

JIN: Thanks for the inside information on Thailand!!! Veeeery interesting

TED: Speaking of Vermont, the best hamburger I ever had was at the Howard Johnson's in Brattleboro. And Montpelier is the most beautiful state capitol in America.

PRESS COMMUNIQU

9th September 1997

The Bank for International Settlements is today releasing a "Note on
gold shipments and gold exchanges organised by the Bank for
International Settlements, 1st June 1938 - 31st May 1945". This note,
based on the BIS archives, gives a comprehensive overview of all gold
location exchanges - both physical gold shipments and location swaps
between depositories - organised by the BIS shortly before and during
the Second World War. The note has been certified by Coopers &
Lybrand, London. The note, together with the examination certificate, is
available as from today on the BIS's own Web site ( http://www.bis.org )

Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley expects to see inflation in the first quarter of 1998.
http://www.lp-llc.com/cents/roach.shtml

Donald: My place is in Putney ( about six miles up the road from Ho-Jo's ) on the top of a mountain and ya can see "the ranch" from interstate 91 and route 5...Some of the HIGHEST proprty taxes in the U.S.of A are in our area there....and I'm still payin em....duh....is me....am off fer some seakayaking!!! BBL dudes....

Important developments are happening almost on a daily basis.

o IRS acknowledeges it will not be ready for 2000 without "free" help from the large computer manufactures. They are demanding that all their software be rationalized,updated and made y2k compliant, you pay. All in the industry realize that means they will not be ready! IBM could not get the new flight control system going for the FAA after ten years of trying! This would be funny if it were not serious. Looks like the beast WILL be starved.

o The Governor of the state of NY halts all new IT projects until y2k work is done. Head of NYC y2k project quits ( probably got more money elsewhere ) . NYC task force predicts stock market will shut down for eight days in Jan 2000, city electric power will be cut 50%, loss of life possible.

o State of West Va. about gives up on y2k. Many of their key y2k people are being hired by people with more money. This will be a reoccurring theme I believe. The scarce resources are going to the highest bidders. Trouble is the bidding will continue and intensify as 1999 draws nearer.
Y2k experts suggest "rolling" budgets for y2k.

o Canada appoints y2k task force. Get this, they are to report in MAY of 1998! Just in time for the crunch! This indicates they don't have a clue as to what is coming!

o The 65,000 limit on foreign engineers allowed work permits in the usa is starting to chafe. Before its all over there will be that many Indian software engineers alone here.

Don't count on hearing any of this on CBS. They have their orders, just like the orders not to show the bullet ridden bodies at Waco. Its all over the net though. If just the people ( ever increasing ) who are actually working on y2k projects start drawing their money out of the financial system ( they will ) it could be enough. My gut feel is we could see the start within six months to a year. How will we know it has begun? The precious metals will start to creep up, for no reason. Silver demand in this country will rise strongly ( 100 oz bars will go from todays spot to a strong premium ) . Loans against life insurance policys will be banned for some strange reason. CBS will broadcast special upon special on the integrity of our various financial systems. We will be treated to a few more wsj articles such as "Dollar is better than Gold".
But probably the best will be bill himself, that paragon of moral probity, making a speech about how we must all stick together and "trust" our instititions in this time of need. This will be our signal that he has converted his last few dollars to gold.

Place your bets folks!
http://nxn.netgate.net/images/stocks/crashes.html

All,
Another SAWATDEEKARP BIG PARADE COMING UP?
LET SEE IN THIS WEEK!

Leverage is the vehicle that pushes markets beyond prudent levels. Once bull market reverses, leverage is the catalyst for panic selling. Short-interest level & NYSE Seats price bearish:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/puetz911.html

THIS IS THE SITE: http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/pages/nseas01.html
SORRY!

Off to work I go. Remember, only 72 millon, 450 thousand seconds until Jan. 1, 2000. ( http://www.refdesk.com/ --very bottom of page for countdown clock ) AWAY!!

SPEED:

Rejoinders fashioned to cut
as with a shard
are all the more robust
coming from the Bard
But what it is
I'd really like to see
are words express'd
coming straight
from thee

Of books and quotes
and retorts too
the world is fair awash
the alchemy of rebuttal
is the artistry of quash
the verbal comp'ny
a literate man keeps
may often be a guide
to the accumulated knowledge heaps
piling up inside

ne'ertheless one can only find
such a man a bore
if he can only fire another's words
in prosecution of his war

( :+ ) ) -Mike Sheller


ELDORADO: RJ "Burned out"?

Has the Sun burned itself out?
The Moon deprived of light?
Doth Mercury now shiver
In some frigid, stygian night?

Is the rinfer's furnace quiet?
It's embers cold and dank?
No, tis merely RJ gone awhile
to count his money at the bank!

AURATOR:

Not at all
Don't worry Mate,
I like a little salt
It spices up the meat so much
I like it to a fault
You seem a fellow of such good taste
I never would assault
except with a dish of fava beans
and Chianti from my vault

Should be "refiner's" furnace. Always did write my poetry too quickly...

Ah, poetry. I remember a poem by Lt. Hancock in "Breaker Morant". "There once was a man from Australia, who painted his ass like a dahlia. The color was fine, likewise the design. But the aroma, that was a failure."

Travel to Thailand for $15 per day due to devaluation.
http://www.frommers.com:80/newsletters/09-08-97/article2.html

Heaven for Everyone?
Thai finance chief looks for the good


THANONG BIDAYA WAS A little-known banker when he was tapped in June to become
Thailands finance minister. Anonymity is no longer an option for the man charged with restoring the
countrys gravely ill economy. On Sept. 2 in Bangkok in one of his first speeches to a foreign
audience, Tha-nong spun an upbeat story. Some excerpts:

On the need for greater financial accountability and transparency:

The media and bankers would like to see transparency. So why not? In the long run we have to do
it anyway, so do it now. I am willing to walk in Bangkok nude to be-come transparent.

On the regional crisis:

It is hard to believe that the countries that used to be thought of as tigers have become cats. It is
hard to believe that foreign creditors have suddenly turned sour just because of the [current]
problems. I still believe in the fundamentals of these economies.

On investor confidence:

The bankers and foreign investors want to stay in Thailand. It is relaxing work here. And they have
made so much profit. This is a heaven for everyone.

On economic recovery:

Once confidence is back it could recover within six months or a year. But it is a three-year
program, as I plan it.

On his management style:

I look at forests before I look at the trees, and that is my tactic now . . . I am not very good with
figures.

Who knows which way the winds blow.....

Why it is much, much, too soon to invest in Malaysia. Troubles like these will roil the entire area, if not the entire world.
http://www.businessweek.com:80/1997/38/b3545023.htm

Financial analysts critical of Malaysia branded as "Traitors".
http://washingtonpost.com:80/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-09/12/083l-091297-idx.html

THREE WEEKS AFTER THAILAND devalued the baht, 11 Asian central bankers
gathered in Shanghai. They were talking only for the second time since Emeap -- the Executives
Meeting of East Asian and Pacific Central Banks -- was formed at Japans urging in 1991. The
outcome? Despite Southeast Asias tumbling currencies, the regions economies were
fundamentally sound, said the officials. Translation: Bank of Japan Governor Matsushita Yasuo,
Bank of Koreas Lee Kyung Shick and Hong Kongs Joseph Yam, among other central bankers,
would not take concerted action to support the baht and other currencies.

That was in late July. Since then, the baht, peso, rupiah and the ringgit have sunk to record lows.
Even Singapore and Hong Kong are under attack. Will the regions Group of Eleven -- Australia,
China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines,
Singapore and Thailand -- now march together to crush the speculators? Says a Singapore official:
A lot depends on Japan, since it would be difficult to develop a coordination mechanism without
its leadership. But the Japanese are lukewarm, partly because of worries that a high profile would
ruffle China and Southeast Asia.

Others are moving. Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad pitched the idea of an
anti-currency-speculation coalition at the leaders meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic
Cooperation ( APEC ) forum in Osaka in 1995 and again in the Philippines last year. Philippine
Finance Secretary Roberto de Ocampo says he and his ASEAN colleagues will meet in Bangkok
Sept. 17-18 to study the possibility of a common fund to be used by member countries hit by
currency instability. But he does not expect a deal anytime soon. The best defense, says de
Ocampo, is keeping your fundamentals sound so that the basic framework of the economy
remains strong.

Most of the regions central banks are opting for restraint over regional intervention. True, there is
an agreement to help each other in times of turmoil. But it involves nothing more than the exchange
of information, says Gabriel Singson, governor of the Central Bank of the Philippines. Last month,
Thailand did get loans from Japan and other countries, backed by the International Monetary Fund.
Although it was initiated by the IMF, there was a strong sentiment among all central bankers that
there should be a rescue package, says Hong Kong Financial Secretary Donald Tsang Yam-kuen.

More help is available -- for a price. Under a regional repurchase arrangement, central banks can
borrow dollars from each other, but must provide collateral in the form of U.S. government
securities. An agreement among Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand is in
place. Each can exchange its local currency for up to $80 million from a $200-million fund that may
be increased this year. Bilateral pacts are also in effect. Last year, Hong Kong and Singapore
signed an agreement with Tokyo to intervene on Japans behalf when the offshore dollar-yen
exchange becomes too volatile.

Anything beyond these require political will. Former Reserve Bank of Australia governor Bernie
Fraser suggested in 1996 that Emeap could evolve into an Asian equivalent of the Bank of
International Settlements within three to five years. Owned largely by European central banks, the
Swiss-based BIS acts as a clearing house for the foreign reserves of many countries and as a
lender of short-term loans. An Asian BIS could work better for the region because it would
operate in the same time zone. And transactions costs could be lower. The Swiss BIS charges
members of the OECD -- the rich nations club -- lower rates than the rest of its clients.

But Japan, which is part of the OECD and BIS, has reservations. Instead, it calls for the inclusion
of more Asian central banks in the Bank for International Settlements. Nine of them, including those
from China, India, Hong Kong and Singapore, were invited last year to buy equity. The BIS has
also said the new members will be given a strong voice, despite fears from existing shareholders
about the dilution of their influence. As if to underscore its commitment to Asia, the bank arranged
a $3.3-billion bridging loan to Thailand in August. The money came from the U.S. and Europe.

What no one disputes is the importance of cooperation. Within the 18-member APEC, finance
ministers now meet regularly. We need more frank consultation and frequent dialogue, says
Malaysian Finance Minister Anwar Ibrahim. The risks that accompany the move towards greater
financial integration and increasing openness are obvious. These risks include instability, increased
risk-taking by financial institutions and pressures on international payment and settlement systems.
Just dont expect intervention.

STRAD: Either bungled your email address, or my message to you was returned for some malfunction. Could you e-me your address to mine above. Thanks.

Credit Card chargeoff rate at 7.01%, down from 7.10% eight year high in April.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/11/z0000_z00_16.html

VISITOR: Wind is from the South at 2-4 mph right now.

JIN ( 10:16 ) Sounds like my brother lives in a safe ( ? ) city.....

NO MAS....

Watch out dudes!

DOLLAR COST AVERAGERS: Dollar cost averaging doesn't work when a company goes bankrupt, and is liquidated. Dollar cost averaging only works when a substantial rebound occurs.

GRANDE:I see that HOC has broken out on the charts. How high do you think this issue can go if a shortage of refined products develops? Is it "dead money' wihhout a Middle East blowup?

ELDORADO: In addition to radically improved reaction to news, the other bull signal I am looking for is strong and broad based upside movement in the gold stocks ON VERY HEAVY VOLUME.

Ted: Boilers win!!! That reverses a bear market in Purdue football against Notre Dame going back to the early 1980s. Can gold be far behind? Possibly reversing its bear market since the early 1980s?

LGB: Please don't read this posting. You may incorrectly claim I'm using Purdue football as a leading indicator for gold. Bart, please get a reverse-squelch-button -- so my postings go to everyone but LGB.

Ted: You're right!! Two more days. And the drama builds to a pressure-packed cresendo!!!

To all concerned about where I've been: I just finished writing my monthly newsletter. I wrote it a week early this month -- because of the critical juncture in the stock market. This is a must read letter. My wife, who is usually bored with my writing, said she couldn't put this letter down once she started reading it. I'll make an offer to all here at Kitco: e-mail your postal address to me at bpuetz@holli.com, and I'll send you my September 15th letter -- free. LGB: This offer does not apply to you!

Hi bro!

bw,
Excellent post re: y2k.
I would like to add one more thing. Starting next spring we will hear constantly about the flat tax. It will materialize in 1999. That will be one of the signs that the gov. realized that the party is over for the IRS and many other agencies. Further more, I think that next year the IRS will require all employers to verify their employees information ( SS#, dependents, etc. ) and submitt it to them. Not just regular W2 that needs annual updating. The $US, the treasuires and stocks will not be a good place for your money.

Puetz, glad you left me off the "free offer" list because I visited Costco yersterday and got a 3 month supply of Toilet paper already... Market still right on target for your crash Puetzky??? It should be, it crashed UP again Friday, and we have such OMMMMMMinuos signs as a 10 to 1 ratio of new highs to new lows....

Oh BTW, current accepted "Dollar Cost averaging" investment strategy ( at least the type that's been discussed here as preferable for the "average" investor ) has little or nothing to do with any individual company's solvency. It's mutual fund investing. In the case of 401K plans, the plan goes with you in the event the company fails. Only the company stock contribution portion would be affected.

BW, the IRS will shut down in Y2K and your complainin!!!???? This Y2K deal is WAY overhyped....but then, ain't bad news fun? Maybe we need some more made up conspiracy stuff here to keep is interesting. I heard that Al Gore was inducted into the Illuminati, has been given a secret post in the TriLateral Commission, and comes and goes via Black Helicopter..Hmmm

Historical precedent suggests House Of Rothschild is buying gold hand over fist! See extensive analysis review of what the the Richest Family in the world is investing in now:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta909.html

OK Eldorado, re your 02:29. The U.S. citizenry has confidence in Federal reserve notes. In fact the whole world seems to have confidence in em. Even all those evil, misled, Central Bankers seem to have confidence in em. Willing to trade gold for em even. Even all the top economists seem to have confidence in the darn phony, secretly inflated bubble notes. In fact, even our own U.S. Treasury dept. is happy to exchange FRN's for Gold, Silver, and Platinum bullion coins. ( You'd think at least THEY would know the damn things were worthless! ) Now since everyone on earth is willing to consider it valid currency and always has, and since they all continue to trade their goods and services for it, please enlighten me as to why I should trade all my FRN's for canned food this week and head for the hills??

Latest Radar and meteorlogical reports indicat Linda is rapidly diminishing in strength and will not impact the West Coast of CA.

Puetz: How much is a lifetime subscription to your newsletter? If this market crashes per your timetable, I would not want to ever be without it. I will be adding to my long Spoos position on any early pullback tomorrow morning. I would, of course, reverse to the short side if Thursday's low is taken out. See you all next weekend, or after the crash, whichever comes sooner: )

Are we all to concerned with the power of the governmental crew to starve off a reasonable drop in this market and worry that if such happenance occured and that the powers will then convince the lemmens to reinvest for even greater rewards?
Government statistics and media hype are the major factors keeping this bull alive and the gold price down.
Additionally we are to concerned about cental bank gold sales, someone had to buy that gold and while knowing who would be helpful, it's not paramount.
Eventually the money that keeps this market going will dry up, especially when the dollar starts its fall.
The way the powers run the 'paper game' and confuse the public, is by shifting economic success between national boundries. This generally allows for currency gain and interest payment at the expense of real money ( gold ) .
Asians will eventually reclaim their invested dollars to reinvigorate their own troubled economies.
My opinion is that this situation can turn on a dime and that to much emphases is being placed on what we are being fed by the unholy alliance.

LGB
According to you, the y2k is overhyped. What information is your statement based on? How are you qualified to make that assertion? Can you support it with data/information, either from our government or private industry?
At this point, I would like to get as much information re: y2k as possible, so that I can make an educated guestimet regarding future impact of the y2k on my life and investments. You seem to be knowledgable on the subject. Please share it with me.
Best regards
Shek

Well the die is cast! Today I read the first full page propaganda sheet on the global warming treaty in the Sunday paper. Considering the Herr Klinton had already passed his first energy tax I see no reason he won't pull out all the stops for this next one. Now, considering the similar energy inflation occurred in the late 60's and early to mid 70's. My local guru gives it precious little chance of passing Congress, but he just doesn't understand the incredible Klintonista propaganda machine rivalling that of the "National Socialists" of the 1930's. But the question is this. Where is the data located about rates of inflation, market sector advances/declines et cetera for the period from 1965 to 1975???

ET - Go Home?? hey ted ;- )

EP - Welcome. Are you just visiting? Come on in and join us loonies.

EC - you JAM on guitar!

ED - you were always a funny horse.

EZ - yeah...we'll take it easy today...

E-gads - enough of this

any other E-something's out there?

!yawa
EB

LBJ-by your posts, you continue to prove
yourself to be a real ASSet to this site.

I hope your girlfriend-Linda doesn't 'peter-out' like hurricane-Linda...heh-heh...

away...to run for shelter from the tempest or the teapot?
EB

Why would a CB sell gold in pitance amounts $2 to $3 billion, when they can issue paper, buy dollars and get fairly good rates???? Who the heck is going to know about it?
My reasoning of why they sell this gold is simple, keep the fairy tale US economy alive and hope that it will eventually rub off on mine.
Selling this pittance of gold signals 'falsely' that all is fine in Camelot and that investors in stocks and bonds have not to worry.
Mergers and sales of second rate corporations generally have greater value than these gold sales - and then those companies generaly rise with the markets.
I call it Wall Street and MEDIA HYPE. Think about it?

Jack: I must be missing a lot that others are seeing. When you say "Selling this pittance of gold signals 'falsely' that all is fine in Camelot and that investors in stocks and bonds have not to worry." Just what are your reffering to? I know the market is high and is due for a corection but I don't see anything that requires a lot of effort to fool the "investors" at the moment.

EB G'day and then there's e-mail, and eli in the morning, which is what it is here, before sparrow fart.
Mike Sheller,you are a gentleman, what those bean things again? Not like human beans are they mike? You see us Europeans have a history of being eaten down here, and when someone starts sharpening their molars--- perhaps its a jungian archetype thing....;- )
aurator, teaching the sparras how to .......

The pension liabilities of many US listed companies are mountains compared to ant hills when viewed with the dollar value of these small CB gold sales.
Are we like mushrooms. Are we being kept in the dark and fed shit???

Shek, My opinion on Y2K is based on inquiry of the system and software administrators within my own industry, ( Sattelites, Defense, Communication, weather, internet ) . In querying those with expertise in our own networked systems, and those in corrolary industries, their consensus has been that Y2K system problems will be resolved far in advance and be a "non" event. Similar to all the media hyped scare stories we've had on viruses that were supposed to shut us down on April 1st etc...all of which also turned out to be non events.

You really believe that the advances we've made in computer technology, which must be measured in huge exponential leaps each year, will all be brought to their knees because we can't figure out how to program what YEAR it is into our systems? Gawd this site is good for humor. That's why I keep coming back here. Doom and Gloom extraordinaire...I love it!

Terrorism is much in the news these days. What image comes to mind when you hear the word "terrorist"? A swarthy mid-eastern type perhaps with a robe of some sort? Our "free press" has done a good job here, most are programmed correctly. Can we define terrorism as the excess use of force to harm/maim/kill/scare innocent people to advance some cause? Many people worldwide would say this describes many of our defacto foreign policy operations.

To me terrorism is an image of a dozen or so assult troops ( they do wear todays equivalent of jackboots ) breaking down the door of some poor soul who is rumored to possess a pot plant or other banned object. Attempt to defend your property from the black clad strangers and you will be shot dead. After the troops may have failed to find the pot they tear the place up looking for "contraband". Whats that you say about the Constitution requiring the search warrent to list all objects to be searched for? I guess contraband is an object, or is it carte-blanche. Were not search warrents invented to rid the people of carte-blanche? Now if they find some gold coins they take them ( could be from drug dealing ) , a few hundred in cash, take that also, same reason. Ask for a receipt for all they have stolen from your house and you are liable to get a fat lip but you will receive no receipt. Why? Because troops need not give the enemy a receipt for the goods they remove from him. The crime you are charged with? None. Coming soon to a house near yours. The people of the usa are so raped, by our government of the people ( most do not involve the jackbooted troops, just stolen property. Oh the troops will come should you resist ) 5,000 times a week. Don't get me wrong I have nothing against these young men, they are doing their jobs, its dangerous work and there are some bad guys out there. ( Seems the Germans had the same problem in the 1930s. ) The problem lies somewhere up the chain of command. Like way up. If we want to find some cocaine I know a good place to look. But pulling a drug raid on the white house could pose big problems. Unlike you and I the secret service has the same full auto mp5s as the assult troops.

Jack: I have assumed that the CB sales are so small, against jewellery sales for example, that they really mean nothing to the economy and only server to tinker around with the last couple of $ of the gold price at the most. When the price is already moving up or down them may add to the momentum. The investors rarely know they have happened.

Lurker, thanks for your 14:13 related to the markets, gold, and the economy. Also, don't forget to send for Puetze's "free" Newsletter. I think you should take your entire net worth, and follow Puetze's invsetment recommendations immediately.

You can answer that question very easily.

Ask your self why gold hardly stays above $400?

When cost of production is high for most commodities they generally raise prices, or close down. Sometimes production oversupply is the basis for closing down.
Gold however is viewed by the mass media ( infleuncing the public ) and as a commodity by the political powers so long as it stays below $400. It's their fear of the loss of that power; that holds gold down.

THIS MANIPULATION IS A BIG FARCE and directed by most 'so called' leaders.

Jack: Could be you are right but I still think the price of gold is where it is because nobody wants the stuff when the is no problem with inflation. I know the price of gasoline goes up and down but on a global level there is no inflation worth buying gold for. Anyway nice chat. I have to go.

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors

Junk Bonds are one of the heaviest asset classes of U.S. mutual funds.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/12/z0000_z00_9.html

All, would appreciate some input on this Deferred Settlement Trading. ;- ) Does it infer the existance of a derivative paper market on LBMA volumes?

Deferred Settlement or Account/Account trading as it is sometimes called, is a system which has found favour, in particular, with Middle Eastern traders. It is, basically, trading with no fixed settlement date.

d ) Settlement of the account occurs only when the customer liquidates his position, in which case profits or losses on the Dollar account must be settled in full; or when a customer wishes to take or make delivery, in which case full delivery and settlement are made, as though a spot transaction had taken place.

I posted other details earlier this am @ 05:51. 'apo loggies if this is a breach in netiquette :- ) )

http://www.standardcharteredbank.com/mo/gold.html

So much to learn.......;- )

Its not hype. We will not be ready! Its already too late. Some business have completed their y2k projects, about 5% of the total. Of those they all say almost without exception they wish they had started sooner. Why? Because they are still finding bugs. It takes years to debug large systems. NYC has been going at it for well over a year. They are 5% done! They will not be ready! An average large corporation may take 3-4 years to finish testing. Many have not started yet! The SSA has been working since 1989, they are 40% complete and have this code in production. They are a medium shop with about 40 million lines of code. Some large banks have 250 million. Many small banks have not even begun to survey their code yet. You may wish to check on yours!

LGB, your comment justifying Y2K as overrated "My opinion on
Y2K is based on inquiry of the system and software administrators
within my own industry, ( Sattelites, Defense, Communication" is full
of air or somebody is feeding you the same.
I work on Y2K with most of these agencies in Washington D.C. ( and these
people are from the top in those industries and government agencies ) ,
however, none of them expressed the opinion like yours - quite contrary!

LGB: I'm beginning to think that banning you would not be such a bad idea after all.

Head of A.G. Edwards brokerage firm says "the caution light is on".
http://www.amcity.com:80/buffalo/stories/090897/story7.html

You are either accepting others' lies or making lies up. Either way a lie is a lie. I know enough about computers to understand where you come from now.

Enough talk of banning posters here. The best predictor is banned and several others have been squelched. Why do we tune in here? Just to hear our own opinions reflected back. Getting the squelch button that allows each of us to tune out those who have become nothing more than agrivations would be a step ahead. Continued baiting and banning isn't going to help this site.

The stock market is "currently very risky" get ready to "pay a big penalty".
http://washingtonpost.com:80/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-09/14/049l-091497-idx.html

IMF urged to study hedge-fund role in Asian markets


KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 14 ( AFP ) - Asia's recent financial turmoil
provides a timely opportunity for an IMF study on the role of
billion-dollar hedge funds in currency and equity markets, a former
World Bank official says.
The International Monetary Fund, which along with the World Bank
begins its annual meetings in Hong Kong this week, has already
published a study on the role of hedge funds in the world bond
market turbulence of early 1994.
Released to coincide with the annual meeting in Madrid the same
year, the study focussed on European bond markets and highlighted
three major areas of concern -- the credit risks posed by such
less-regulated funds, their ability to generate excessive volatility
in government bond markets and the potential for market
manipulation.
Ramon Navaratnam, a former deputy secretary in the Malaysian
treasury department who worked at the World Bank in the 1970's, says
the time has come for a similar study focussed on Asian markets,
which have seen currencies and share prices plunge dramatically in
recent months.
"It's very timely for the IMF to undertake a study here in Asia
because it is clear that these big hedging funds do not have the
discipline that other funds are subjected to," Navaratnam told AFP.
"We need to regulate them to prevent manipulation, therefore we
need an IMF study for the Asian capital markets.
"The IMF can make an important decision at this annual meeting
if it announces a decision to launch a study as soon as possible,"
he said, adding that the results could be presented to next year's
meeting.
In an article published earlier this month, Navaratnam -- now an
advisor to the Sungei Way group of companies -- urged the IMF to
"accept responsibility to solve the problems of currency attacks" by
using its special drawing rights ( SDRs ) to "monitor, alert and ward
off" such developments.
Since then, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who has
repeatedly blamed the attacks on a fund managed by American
financier George Soros, has called on the world to outlaw currency
manipulation -- but not speculation.
The IMF study of 1994 found that the "relatively light
regulatory burden" was one of the main features making hedge funds
different from other big players which also engage in aggressive
position taking -- such as proprietary trading desks of large banks
and securities house and some mutual funds.
As private companies with less than 100 partners and often based
offshore, they "escape" many of the registration and reporting
requirements imposed on big market participants in the United
States.
By limiting the number of investors, for example, they avoid
registration under the Securities Act and the Company Act. And by
limiting the frequency of trades, they avoid registering as dealers
under the Securities Exchange Act.
Other special features of hedge funds are their pure wealth and
greater tolerance of risky investments, along with their extremely
high leverage of between five and 20 times capital, the IMF study
said, noting that the average leverage for other big market players
was towards the lower end of this range.
The study estimated the total capital of such funds at between
75 billion dollars and 100 billion dollars in 1994, with about half
betting on changes in interest rates, exchange rates and equity
prices in global markets.
Individual funds were thought to range from as little as 75
million dollars to as much as 10 billion dollars, with portfolios
spanning bonds, currencies, equities, derivatives, commodities,
real-estate and even other hedge funds.
Among the major concerns, the study warned that such huge credit
risks could pose wider risks to financial systems if collateral
values fell while noting that hedge funds "might exacerabte
volatility" in less liquid markets.
"Potential concern number three is that hedge funds could engage
in market manipulation and thereby compromise the integrity of
markets," it said.
While the study was "not aware of any evidence that they have
colluded to manipulate prices," it added that "the absence of
regular information on large trade makes it problematic to ascertain
the market impact of hedge funds."

Fundy-Date: Sun Sep 14 1997 15:41
"Fundy ( Bay ) :
Enough talk of banning posters here. The best predictor is banned and several others have
been squelched. Why do we tune in here? Just to hear our own opinions reflected back.
Getting the squelch button that allows each of us to tune out those who have become nothing
more than agrivations would be a step ahead. Continued baiting and banning isn't going to
help this site."

There is Fundy again, supporting the disrupters of the site as usual.

Financier Soros "a little bit beleaguered"


HONG KONG, Sept 14 ( AFP ) - US financier George Soros, the man
blamed by Malaysia for speculating in Asia's troubled currencies,
has admitted to feeling "a little bit beleaguered," according to a
report Sunday.
Soros, labelled a criminal and a "moron" by Malaysian Prime
Minister Mahathir Mohamad, told Time magaxine he was feeling the
pressure.
"I'm a little bit beleaguered," he admitted, "I'm overexposed,
fighting on too many fronts, and that's a mistake."
Mahathir has accused the Hungarian-born billionaire of
destabilising Southeast Asian currencies because he objects to the
admission of Burma's military junta into the Association of South
East Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) .
Fund manager Daniel Hemmant was quoted by Time as saying that
Soros is a favourite target.
"He is often tarred for things he hasn't done."
Soros has denied his fund was instrumental in starting the run
on the Malaysian ringgit.
Soros, a Jewish survivor of the Holocaust and communism, says in
the article: "Once you have survived a life-threatening experience,
everything pales after that."
But "combining business success with philanthropy and with
reflection, gives me tremendous satisfaction."
Soros made one billion of his five billion US dollars fortune in
a week in 1992 betting against the British pound.
"Obviously people care about the man who made a lot of money,"
he says in the article.
"My influence has continued to grow and I do have access to most
people I want to have access to."
Soros is scheduled to speak at a seminar on global integration
on September 21 organised by the World Bank and International
Monetary Fund ( IMF ) which are holding annual meetings here from
Monday.
He is reportedly worried about his security for the speech.
A World Bank official, briefing media about scheduling for the
10-day event, said it was not yet certain whether Soros would give a
media conference.
Soros was "not sure how much media attention he will have at the
meetings... he has some personal security concerns," said World Bank
spokeswoman Merrell Tuck-Primdahl, without elaborating.
The international financier is due to speak the day after
Mahathir.
Last month, Mahathir said in Kuala Lumpur that he had no wish to
meet Soros. "I will go to Hong Kong but I don't have any wish to
meet him," he said.
"He has listened to me through the press, he can make his
statement through the press... I will listen."
Some 14,000 finance ministers, bankers and business figures will
descend on Hong Kong for the annual meetings of the World Bank and
IMF which finish on September 25.
The meeting will be held at the convention centre where Hong
Kong was officially handed over to Chinese sovereignty by Britain on
July 1.
More than 1,500 police officers will be deployed specifically to
maintain security for meeting venues and delegates, with some 300
providing personal protection for VIPs, including Chinese Premier Li
Peng.
Soros Fund Management has denied speculative selling of the
ringgit.

Ah Lurker you are so reliable its loosing its charm. When I get to squelch "Lurker" how many individuals do you think will disappear from my Kitco?

http://www.smn.co.jp/topics/0011p02e.html

Minister threatens clamp on press

The Thai Government is preparing to invoke tough internal security laws to silence a barrage of media criticism ahead of a parliamentary showdown that could force general elections.

The Interior Minister, Mr Sanoh Thienthong, confirmed at the weekend that he had ordered police to act against newspapers accused of aggravating the country's economic and political crisis.

Police are believed to be looking at launching prosecutions under internal security laws that provide jail terms of up to seven years for publishers and editors.

http://www.smh.com.au:80/daily/content/970915/world/world7.html

kiwi: g'day. RU a mainlander?

Looks like the Thai Government would be in favor of banning dissenting views here too. Maybe they are lurking--

Ted: Just got back online. My ISP went offline for "router" configuration right about the time I was spending quality time with Mike Sheller. We have new and better routers, more modems coming etc. etc. blah, blah. I feel your pain.

Mike Sheller: I work with computers and write instructions for "users" on my network. This makes my prose very stilted. As in 1 ) find Shakespeare book 2 ) find quote that says what I think only better 3 ) key in quote 4 ) press submit. Poetry? I never got past alliteration. Puetz's puts purvey possible penury. : ) I missed your MOGN pick altogether, so I get an F in paying attention. I don't put any stock in star gazing. I suspect you put hours into examining the mundane stats about MOGN in addition to those spent on the star charts and your intuition paid off handsomely. Your poetry is first rate.

Teen solves Y2K problem:
http://www.cnn.com/TECH/9709/14/nzealand.millenium/

Stealth Bomber crashes near Baltimore:
http://www.drudgereport.com

SURGING U.S. Money supply portends well for GOLD. VERY RELEVANT IS Guest Guru Milhouse analysis:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse831.html

IDT, re your 15:34, it appears to me that you left 2 important letters out of your online handle. Please correct immediately. Thanks.

Miro & 13, re your Y2K Sky is Falling sceanrios, in 27 months we'll all know the truth won't we? By then however, we will all long since have lost interest and have many dozens of other "Sky is Falling" scenarios to pique our interest. Ain't bad news theories fun? I'm no expert in large scale systems, nor have I claimed to be. However, I do have confidence that this particuar multi billion industry, employing thousands of highly pais experts, will be able to resolve this Oh so difficult "crises" long before it has a chance to occur. The system administrator experts in my company, who also have dozens of similar counterpart contacts in the industry ( including NASA and JPL I might add ) agree. You been reading too many novels and hangin out on Kitco too long gentlemen. Plenty of REAL crises will be around in the year 2000. We don't really need to add any phony ones to the mix.

Drought, fire threaten Indonesian economy


JAKARTA, Sept 14 ( AFP ) - With no forecast of rain for months,
forest fires raging around the country and a major devaluation of
the rupiah, Indonesia is scrambling to prevent its agricultural and
economic achievements from going up in smoke.
As the El Nino warming phenomenon threatens widespread drought
and famine in the Asian region, Indonesia's woes are exacerbated by
dwindling water supplies and fires that have consumed some 100,000
hectares ( 247,000 acres ) of the country's forests this year.
This year's El Nino, one of the worst on record, is expected to
delay by several months the arrival of the rainy season in Indonesia
which normally begins around September.
Indonesian officials are warning of widespread crop failure and
water shortages if water supplies on several islands, including the
most populous island of Java with more than 100 million people,
continue to drop.
The past month has seen reports of dwindling water reserves,
dried up wells and evaporating river levels in the Sumatran cities
of Jambi and Padang, the East Kalimantan capital of Samarinda and
numerous cities in Central Java.
In the Central Java town of Wonosari, reports tell of farmers
lining up to exchange gold jewelry for water at 25,000 rupiah ( 8.70
dollars ) per tank, a significant outlay for two weeks worth of water
when wages are as little as 7,000 rupiah ( 2.40 dollars ) per day.
The government has already reported a 10 percent drop in
agricultural production, with coffee plantations among the hardest
hit.
Some traders worry that Indonesia's coffee crop could be as much
as 40 percent lower than that of 1996-1997. In July, exports of
coffee from Indonesia fell to 671,000 sacks, down from 898,909 sacks
a year earlier.
Indonesian farmers fear that if Indonesia does not get any rain
by the end of the month, the world's largest producer of robusta
beans, used primarily for blends of instant coffee, will record a
disastrous harvest.

LGB: I am a system administrator for a 150 node 4 server network. The Y2K problem is real. I am involved in replacing, repairing or killing at least 4 pieces of software in the next two years and we are only lightly affected. Software, even the shrink wrap variety, written in the past 20 years has a very high chance of being NON compliant for the year 2000. It all has to be replaced or fixed. PC bios chips older than this year will have problems. So we have to replace all of our pcs ( and already have replaced most ) by 1999. Also, computer chips with date-keeping chores are in elevators, subways, and other not so obvious places. Would you like to be in an elevator on New Years eve when the chip decides the maintenance cycle is past due and shuts down? Depends on whom you are with? ; ) I am not a gloom and doomer, but there is a sizeable mess to be cleaned up. The private sector, defense and space agencies will be ready first, I am not nearly so confident about the rest.

LGB, I have no reason to argue with ignorance. Please point me to one
of my posts where Ive painted "Sky if falling scenario". I am just
saying that the problem is much more serious that your classification
as "overrated hype"
No, I dont read too many novels, I simply work on the problem. I am
in frequent contact with experts around the world, participate and
present on international conferences, co-authored the book "Year 2000
Problem, Strategies and Solutions from the Fortune 100" with Society
for Information Management group, ISBN 1-85032-913-3.

Currently working on eight Y2K projects, for different agencies.
Now whats your credentials besides talking under anonymous handle?
Here is my contact information, I have nothing to hide, nothing to
pretend

Dr. Miro Medek, Principal IS Engineer, Year 2000 Lead
Software Systems Modernization
Mitretek Systems-Z551 medek@mitretek.org
7525 Colshire Drive ( 703 ) 610-1835
McLean VA 22102-3481 ( 703 ) 610-1603 fax

Badger: I don't have any knowledge of ELD & GIT current price weakness.
Aurator: The Morningstar comment is right only if the investor is a good timer. To avoid the timing issue dollar cost averaging is the prescription. Over the long term ( 10+ yrs. ) dollar cost averaging is a winner as the average investment cost will marginally decline in relation to portfolio value.

In addition, material lump sum investing is not an option to many investors - they don't have scratch or the ability to borrow/leverage.

Cheers

Do you have an opinion on the utility of object oriented methods and OOP ( ST, Java ? ) to build secure and reliable information systems solutions in general and with respect to y2k in particular ?

LGB,
Thank you for your reply. I'd like to think that your Doom and Gloom name calling was not directed at me.
To my point. Nobody suggests that we do not posses the technical ability to correct the problem. What we do not have is time and financial resources. Financial resources because:
1. y2k has not been budgeted for.
2. Non technical managerial types dont feel the need to spend millions of dollars on something they dont comprehend.
3. Programmers leaving companies for other companies that offer them more money. Leaving jobs unfinished, creating more problems.
Time, because we have 14 months if you factor in vacations, holidays and testing time.
The Social Security Adm. started their work on y2k problem in 1991. After 6 years of work they have completed 60%!
ALL of the costs related to y2k problem have to appear on P&L statement the year incurred. What effect will that have on company earnings statement and stack valuation? You are starting to see the effects of it right now. IBM, Coca-cola, Motoroala.
Regards

LGB,
Taking in consideration y2k, the preferred thing for the stock market would be a gradual, protrackted decline ( versus a crash ) . Because if the y2k hits the investment community AFTER market crash, we will see Puetz' worst nightmare come true. There will be no winners in that scenerio.

Will using object-oriented techniques and languages help build more secure and reliable software systems? I think most experts would say yes, this will help, but alone will certainly not ensure much improvement. Java? Not necessarily a huge help for reliability and security - typically those characteristics are injected in ways that are to some extent independent of language ( some languages are designed with the intention of promoting reliability ) . Y2K? This problem is not the result of generally unreliable or non-secure software, per se. It is the result of ( 1 ) The fact that when software was written years ago the cost of saving an extra two bytes to denote the century was high enough to be a factor in the decision whether to store those extra bytes ( 2 ) Few had the long-term vision that would have been necessary to worry about something 15 or more years into the future.

Advances in programming language, the development of Java, and object-oriented technique will not, IMHO, prevent another Y2K-like problem. What will help, however, is lessons learned over the years about how to build software.

The building of software remains, to the lament of many, an art or a craft, but not yet an engineering discipline mature enough to provide consistent results.

FYI, I am on the part-time faculty in computer science at the local community college, and I have an MS in computer science and over 15 years experience in the industry. That does not make me an expert. That would require a stack of slides, passionate, well-articulated convictions, and at least one book.

If you would like to expound on the basis for your question I will make an effort to be helpful based on whatever additional information you provide about your situation.

However, please get back to me before 1/1/00 at which time civilization as we know it will quickly vanish. Maybe.

Shek: Puetz's worst noghtmare is that I am right and we have started a powerful up move last Thursday at noon, leading to new highs very soon.: )

OLDMAN: You can put me down on the "worst nightmare" list for that one too. However if we went up from here, close to but failing to make a new high, I would be quite pleased.

Bob, you have to differentiate Object Oriented Approach from OO language.
You can develop Y2K safe systems in any language, OOP makes some aspects
easier, however, you can not replace, redevelop, all existing systems in
OOP - there is no time and there is not enough expertise in OOP ( which
requires a different "thinking" than traditional approaches ) . Whats
even worse, it wont help at all to solve the problem with embedded
systems ( systems where microcontroller chips with firmware are part of
many control systems ) . We are just starting to address this aspect of
Y2K and it is much more difficult than traditional IT systems.
Seven billion programmable microcontrollers were shipped last year,
3.5 billion the year before, Maybe as few as 5% are affected by Y2K but
we dont know where they are and how they behave. Its difficult to find
them and difficult to test them On pharmaceutical company looked at two
machines for monitorring drug production. Identical machines, the same
supplier, same design, identical chip. One machine was OK one failed.
Chips had a different serial numbers, came from different makers, one
was Y2K compliant one was not. Scary and the task is daunting.

MIRO, SHEK: I e.mailed my son in DC, who is working on the Y2K problem for his living, the news from New Zealand that was posted a bit ago. He said he has heard the same claim from a guy in Texas. He also says that solving the problem is only a small portion of the work. It is the testing for every possible type of failure that is most time consuming.

donald: a failure near the 8/7 high would be one of the easiest shorts of my lifetime. Good luck all. I give it about a 20% chance of happening. gone.

London Bullion Marketing Association ( LBMA ) is best described as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Daily gold trading nearly 50% yearly production. Who & Why?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron913.html

Donald: Now that I know your last name, I noticed that Barron's printed a letter of yours in this week's Mailbag section. When I read it, I wondered if that was you, because I recognized the name from somewhere. You must have been on my mailing list. Congratulations on the Barron's letter.

Donald:
If Puetz is correct about your letter in Barron's, can you post it on Kitco for all to see. Thanks.

Donald, there are currently many patents awarded and pending for
"solving" Y2K problem. I was asked to review some of them and worked
with some patent holders. Unfortunately, all of them address just a
subset of the problem and are not applicable to all environments. E.g.,
intercepting and manipulating dates in object code ( one of the
patents ) does not catch all dates and works only on IBM mainframe object
code, encapsulation and shifting the environment back in time
( another patent ) is again applicable only to some systems,
methodology combined with virtual bridges ( yet another patent ) is
again focused only on a subset of environments, etc, etc..
I expect the New Zeland news be in the same category.
There won't be "One elegant patented solution" which will solve them
all. Just a lot of hard work. You are right, due to a high degree of
interdependencies between external systems, testing is extremely
difficult, and even if you fixed you own system you are still exposed due
to somebody else failing ( financial systems are the prime example of

Wow!! What a response from my free letter offer!!
Some people gave me their e-mail address rather than their POSTAL address. For those who did so, please e-mail your POSTAL address to me at bpuetz@holli.com. Thanks.

Also thanks for the many kind words. Here are a few of the responses:

Lurker: "A lurker everyday. You may get more response than you anticipate." Lurker, you're right. There's many, many times more people reading Kitco than posting.

Another: "I appreciate your courage. Keep up the good work, and don't let the bast**ds get you down."

Someone else: "Bring it on Mr. Puetz! Will we be howling at the MOON?? Or cryin' in our beer? ... Time will tell."

Another: "Half the time, I believe LGB is just going for the laugh, as I myself often do. So don't take him too seriously."

Someone who disagrees with me: "I've taken a few shots at you lately, but you handled them well. Although we disagree, you have comported yourself as a gentleman, more so than I. I respect that." -- Disagreer, I truly appreciate your comment.

Dr. MIRO: Your credentials are impeccable! I've read and even seen it posted here that the IRS is woefully behind on solving its Y2K problems. Do you know much about this? If nothing else, the instantaneous evaporation of the IRS would provide, at least, some consoloation for all the other problems. BTW what about later Mac computers. Do they suffer the same? Thanks for your input.

I sent an email the other day to a well-known software guru - the real thing, highly respected, a pioneer - since he was nice enough to respond ( to my surprise ) forgive me if I do not identify him. I asked him if he still thought Y2K was an imminent disaster - he said, yes, we have been looking at it even more closely lately, and it is in fact fact worse than we thought.

In spite of all that, I am honestly not sure. It is kind of like a report of an asteroid headed for earth, with the experts divided on whether it will hit, or even come close. Hey, I am not going to insist on unanimity amongst the experts before I start paying some attention. Noone can deny that there are very knowledgeable people who insist this thing will rock civilization.

There is a slight catch-22, and somebody please correct me if I am wrong: Most of those in a position to know the extent of the problem are being paid a lot of money to fix it. Those who downplay the problem, invariably ( in my limited experience ) don't know enough about it to make a fully informed judgement.

Of course this is relevant to gold investments. Gold does not have a Y2K problem, as far as we know. Its atomic weight and physical properties are expected to be unchanged when the clock strikes 12 that fated eve.

What about our favorite topic, its price? Que sera, sera.

Jack-- The pension liabilities of many US listed companies are mountains
compared to ant hills when viewed with the dollar value of these
small CB gold sales. Are we like mushrooms. Are we being kept in
the dark and fed shit???
____________________________________

Last I saw the private companies' pension plans were in improved
shape compared to five or six years ago, as is the federal Pension
Guaranty trust fund backing private pension plans. The problem lies,
as I understand it in grossly underfunded public pension plans...federal,
state, municipal, teacher's and university professors. For example, the
officially acknowledged $1.1T in underfunding of the federal employees
pension and benefit fund, an amount not included in the public debt
outstanding figures from the U.S. Treasury.

New Jersey recently floated a bond issue and used the proceeds to
speculate in the stock market as a means of shoring up their state
employees pension fund. I don't know the total amount of underfunding
of public pension funds nationwide, but the intimations I've come across
imply it could be quite unreal.

I've read on the Concord Coalition webpage that amortizing the
shortfall in the federal employees pension and benefit fund would amount
to $87B in additional funding over the next twenty years, provided it
were begun to paid down today and assuming the present interest rate
environment continuing over the paydown period. I don't know if the
gap is growing. But I believe that in any real world accounting
the $87B due in amortization annually of outstanding legally binding
obligations could reasonably be added to the deficit spending figures.

'Fed' shit, indeed.

Miro re your 17:13. Certainly I respect your credentials. Also it's now quite obvious why you want the Y2K problem to loom so important. It's your living. A definite agenda. I can only repeat, that no matter how "misunderstood" or difficult the problem is, I am confident thatit will pass with nary a whimper on 1/1/2000, due to the efforst of yourself and the several thousand other highly compensated technical experts that will be working to resolve it long before the date arrives.

"Date: Sun Sep 14 1997 16:13
Fundy ( Bay ) :
Looks like the Thai Government would be in favor of banning dissenting views here too.
Maybe they are lurking--"

Fundy, how many times does it have to be said? Nobody is trying
to stifle any stance, opinion, or take on the markets discussed
on this site - civily presented. Why must you continually cheerlead those who, with intention, grossly violate Bart's reasonable "rules
of engagement"?

MIRO: It seems to me that the Y2K problem has two components that will involve the lives of all investors. Mostly we have talked about the period after December 31, 1999. However if the $600 billion figure is correct that is not that the amount that will be withdrawn from capital spending plans today for new equipment? Doesn't that hurt manufacturers like Dell and Compaq? I guess my question is what portion of the problem is hardware and what portion is software?

Lurker: For the last time. I regret that the best predictor of gold's price this site has seen to date is unable to tell me where he thinks it is going next. I am able to hold that separate from the obnoxious behavior that has him banned from here and from other sites as well. I would put up with his unique posts if I could tap into his view of the future. That is the benefit of the squelch biutton. Those who wish to not put up with him could squelch him and those who are trying to figure out where gold is headed might learn something at our own risk. Simple isn't it.

LGB, I also hope that we will avoid the total failure, however we will
see some. Many companies are already taking "triage approach" trying to
correct only essential systems because they don't have time to address
all systems, and some companies won't make it ( will run out of time )
The problem is that we don't know what this will do to our highly
interdependent systems and economy. For this reason you see assessments
anywhere from "gloom and doom" to "this is not a problem". The truth is
somewhere in between - as you've said we will see but I am less
optimistic than you are.

You are wrong on one account, I have no desire to "build my career" on
this. I would rather be working on new systems, however, I was "called
to duty" and it was my professional responsibility to go. I am not
making fortune on this, and I plan to get out of the field in a few
years - I am burned out, and I would like to spend more time on my
"hobbies" like sailing, mountaineering, etc., for which I don't have any
time right now, and I am not getting any younger.
Ted, I envy you with your sea kayaking every day ;- )

Anyone in doubt of the effects and implications of this situation need only go to this site and read for yourself the "Request For Comments" authored by the I.R.S. While it is a droning document ( 1.23meg ) , it is certainly an eyeopener! You'll need Abode Acrobat ( reg. ) to read it, but downloadable versions ( read only ) of 3.0 are avaliable as shareware.

http://www.ustreas.gov/treasury/bureaus/irs/prime/primerfc.htm

Fundy-
I do appreciate your most recent post. I guess your
tolerance for really obnoxious posters is greater than
mine.

Thank you for your thouhful replys. I was thinking that OOP would encapsulate methods and variables ( data ) to translate legacy dates function. Java has been desinged as a trusted distributed web object programming language that offers more security than ActiveX. I understand that embedded controllers are a problem. I understand that most embedded controllers are used in process control - manufacturing, production, communications and transport ( Oil/Water/Sewage flow systems ) so the IRS/govt/banks/NYSE may be somewhat saved as they have tend not to have mission-critical embedded controllers and the few that exist ( banking machines ) could be retrofitted or shut down without overdue stress. The telephone system would be critical as switches rely on embedded controllers. The Bellcore standards, however, are quite high. I haven't read about the state of preparedness in the telephone systems for y2k.

The embedded controller issue is the darkhorse in the y2k solution - as Miro indicated the number on noncompliant controllers is difficult to determine without extensive testing. It will be boom - time for programmer/analysts for the next two years as the projects to test y2k are labor intensive.

Cheers

SPEED: or anyone Why will we all have to replace our PCs by 2000. And what happens specifically if we do not.

There is a Central Bank selling RIGHT NOW which will announce the sale AFTER they are done. This is one reason why gold can not get above $330.00. Central Bank sales in 1997 will be more than 95 & 96 combined! But hey look at the bright, better now than latter. I think these CB sales are the best thing that could happen to the Gold market.

Strad Master, IRS has a problem which is much deeper than Y2K. They face
really difficult problem ( a lot of it due to their own doing ) . They are
in a process of "modernization effort" which is failing badly. It is very
difficult to work on Y2K in parallel with significant redevelopment of
the system - you split your money and other resources too many ways and
eventually you wont finish either of them in time. That has been
recognized and currently been addressed. It would not surprise me if
the tax code was simplified before the Year 2000 in order to keep it
functioning.

As far as Mac goes, Mac hardware and Operating system is Y2K OK, however,
it may not true for some applications which may contain improper date
handling.

If the tech companies know or knew of this problem y2k problem then there will be many class action lawsuits based upon negligence or possibly fraud if it costs the consumer.

Analysis of the week ahead.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/14/aapl_man_1.html

Looks like dbc showing gold unch. Is that accurate? Will be interesting to watch given new ( and predictable ) CB sale talk.

WW: The problem is in the way the pc handles the date change. It is my understanding that you can turn your pc off before midnight, power it back up in the a.m. and manually reset the date. Critical mission machines left on during the date change will not roll over correctly unless the BIOS chips are of recent vintage. I have a pentium and just reset the date to 9-14-2000 without a problem. I suspect that Miro can answer the question with better erudition, but you shouldn't worry. You will want a new box by then anyway with all the new toys coming down the pike. : )

Donald, Y2K has indeed at least two components. $600 billion figure is
"guesstimate" and who knows what the real number will be. There is one
cost which starts to raise its ugly head - litigation cost. As of
today, there is the first Y2K lawsuit filed, and based on testimony on
the Hill, the litigation cost could go up to a couple of $trillions.

As far as hardware manufacturers feeling the pinch, it is already
showing in the industry. Yes, companies are slowing many new projects
( and due to that hardware purchases ) in order to finance Y2K work
On the other hand, there will be some upgrades and new hardware
purchases due to the Y2K ( e.g., new hardware for creating testing
environments or replacing really obsolete hardware which is not
supported and nobody would make it Y2K OK. )

Overall, I would say the revenues for hardware companies may slow
down while the revenues for software and service providers will increase.
I thing this will not stop by the Year 2000 but keep going for a few
years after. JMHO

LGB: I see that it didn't take you long to prove my point.

Speed you've pretty much answered the question. No, you don't have to run
and buy the new PC. Most new models ( bought mostly after 1996 ) are OK.
Older models may have PC-BIOS problem ( thats where the machine picks up
the date after you turn on your machine ) . You can reset the date every time
you bring it up - it may become kind of annoying ( the same thing happens
when you battery goes bad ) , there is a software patch which will fix it
at boot time, or you may buy a new machine ( maybe you need the new toy ) .
Some of the older operating systems have problem and you should upgrade
to the latest version and the same goes for the application software
( some of this may force you to buy a bigger machine ) . Essentially
you don't "have to" do anything, but if your business or money depends
on it's safe to investigate and take the appropriate action.

I rose to the bait once IDT, asking for a second rise isn't reasonable. Though I do admit you seem to be an Ace at baiting. Maybe even a MASTER of baiting. Yes, from now on, you and RJ can share the title of MASTER BAITER.

WW, re your 19:36. the tech companies are well aware of Y2K problem, in fact they intentionally planned it out as a way to corporately control the masses with PC's because they were afraid the information explosion by Y2K would exceed their abilities to contain it through the normal Corporate/Industrial fascist complex currently in place. They're hoping to bring consumers to their knees in horrible DT "PC deficit" withdrawals on 1/1/2K and thus, re-establish their total dominance over the exploited working class by marketing software fixes which will have imbedded code that releases subliminal messages on screen at a 20 Millesecond rate. The message being "Obey the corporate / Govt. master you stooge" repeated over and over millions of times per day at speeds overtly undetectable through normal perceptions.

To all those rubbishing Puetz and his astrological ponderings, keep an open mind, I know for a fact one mood swing in my house that is like clockwork with the moon, this is not lunacy.
A sea tide of mood swing must be taking place right now in Mid/East Asia, loss of economic confidence, holy unseasonal weather, death of a good mother figure, and the final straw will have to be the lunar eclipse of the harvest moon.
http://www-clients.spirit.net.au/~minnah/LEO97-2.html
The Autumnal festivities in the region are the biggest of the year honouring the harvest moon and ancient gods for smiling kindly on them. A total lunar eclipse in this region will be the final nail in the coffin of the previous wave of feel good ushering a new era of angst and distrust.
No amount of manipulation can overcome a mood swing.

Speed -- Totally off subject question. Are you familiar with the Windows NT registry? Specifically, the system services? It seems that a piece of software decided to re-arrange my UPS key in the registry. I entered the correct image path, but the O/S just can't find the path to the UPS driver! Perhaps this is a sign? Sell short one of 'those' high tech companies? I see Barron's did a piece on Microsoft.

Lurker: Nice to hear we have a meeting of the minds. Have a good week.

Bullish on gold. Grant's Interest Rate Observer 1/31/97
( Scroll down until you find the title )
http://www.grantspub.com/giro/giro2.html

Panda: I have modified the NT 4.0 registry on a few occasions. Be careful. Make a backup of the registry first. I don't know off-hand where you should look and I'm on a Win95 machine now. Your UPS vendor should be able to fax you the specific location and required settings. Sorry I can't be of more help.

LGB: Looks like you have half the wit that I supposed you had.

Which still = 6 x 10 third as much as ID**T has.....

Speed; You may be the guy I'm looking for. I have downloaded Nestscape 4 and can't find the way into the address book. Can you give me directions
on how to open it up so I can add e-mail addresses?

This could be an answer directed to the Red Baron?



The CBs are becoming primary suppliers to
the gold market. Understand that they are not
doing this because they want to, they have to.
The words are spoken to show a need to raise
capital but we knew that was a screen from
long ago. You will find the answer to the LBMA
problem if you follow a route that connects
South Africa, The middle east, India and then
into Asia!
Remember this; the western world uses paper
as a real value, but oil and gold will never
flow in the same direction.
Big Trader

Selby: Netscape 4.0 mail uses rolodex style cards and multiple lists and you can edit those by pressing Control+Shift+2 ( hold down the control and shift keys and press 2 ) or by choosing the drop down menu Communicator, then Address Book. Double click on an existing address to edit or choose New Card to add another address. Choose New List to create a special list. "True Lies" is on, so I'll be back later! Enjoy!

Did you notice?
London average daily gold turnover falls in August:

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/12/y0023_z00_31.html

Oliver

lgb re: your 16:16. It is obvious from my perspective that you view your main goal as being the ATTEMPT to confound all others who have the temerity to post anything with which you do not agree! Your callow approach to your mission can only exacerbate your loneliness and decided, as well as deepseated feelings of unacceptability you harbor deep in your psyche.
Not a value judgement!! Based on nearly seven ( 7 ) decades of life, with more than five ( 5 ) being devoted to the study and training of people! I shan't reply to any response you may make, but you know where you stand with me!
To the rest of the folks on this forum: LOVE IT!! As a novice investor and would-be PATRIOT!

Ahhh. Off work now. Get to be off for four full days! It's nice to see brotherly love has returned to Kitco. I just checked the "countdown clock" to 2000. There are now just 72,415,000 seconds left to FIX this problem! http://www.refdesk.com/ ( scroll to very bottom of page )

Speed -- You too! If I showed you the E-Mails from, 'the vendor', I don't know if you'd laugh or cry!

Puetz,
What do you expect from the market tomorrow?

Microsoft Corp's chief financial officer is ``leery'' of the current
valuation of the company's stock
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/14/msft_x000_1.html

..of a lunar eclipse ? Any atrological investors or spiritualists out there who would kindly explain why a lunar eclipse should impact the worlds financial markets ?

Thanks in advance.

It should be helpful to compare the yearly change in offical gold reserves at the beginning of 93 as the gold market was beginning its rise to the current reported sales. In early 93, when the net change was the greatest in at least the last 17 years, there were net sales of approximately 28M ounces ( Source IMF ) over the prior 12 months - which is substantially more than what has reportedly been sold to date this year.

Speed: Thanks--- but I get "unable to open the address book data base". Must be something else wrong somewhere.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/14/msft_x000_1.html
Gee, maybe that guy should talk to the LurkingGoldBug to get his spirit up. He could tell him about all them "fun-duh-mentals." You know, global markets, peasants in China using Windows 95, etc.

If the Barron's article ( I scanned the front page ) on MS dosen't put a serious dent in the stk's price for the coming week we will know that this BULL is stubborn.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/14/msft_x000_1.html
Gee, maybe that guy should talk to the LurkingGoldBug to get his spirit up. He could tell him about all them "fun-duh-mentals." You know, global markets, peasants in China using Windows 95, etc.

BoB - Be Spiritual. Seek And Ye' ShalL Find...

and don't be Crass...

...way
EB

Unfortunately, I'm afraid we're stuck w/ LGB. Perhaps Bart should rename this site, "THE LGB VENT FORUM" since he posts half of the time with useless garbage always provking arguments. Where else could a psycologically deranged individual get away with it? No one would want to call this creep on a telephone. And, if he calls someone, they just hang up on him.

If he were to carry on in public as he does here, he would be immediately "punched out". No wonder he comes here to ruin this site for his sick reasons. He can hide behind his anonymity.

I suggest just ignoring the sick man. Let him seek help from those paid to do such things. And for the many well meaning contributors, don't be discouraged by his sorry state of mental health.

Mr. Puetz: What do you expect market to do tomorrow to keep in line with your predictions??? Thank you.

If the long article pissed anyone off, sorry. However, I did not get the article from another BBS but, from a user group. I will keep that in mind the next time I post.

Bob: I know absolutely nothing about astrology but I do know there are a lot of investors who pay attention to such things. One muckaty muck ( can't remember his name ) said on CNBC that he did not personally beleive in astrology but since other investors did, it would be foolish to totally ignore it. What's the difference if investors sell because they think earning are going down or if they sell because venus is in mars? The result is the same.

ABN is showing gold down .20 and silver down .01 at 10:30 ET FWIW Richard Russell's latest Dow Theory Letters has gold bullion and the XAU still in the clutches of the BEAR per his TA.

Maybe the Central Banks should have bought Microsoft in large quanties, then sold out over the past month, that is til last Friday.
They could have made good money to place in US Treasuries and saved the 'pittance of gold' that will eventually end up in hands - other than their citizens.
I would be one unhappy voter, if they did that to me.
On the other hand, maybe they did buy Microsoft, considering the lofty stock price and are holding it cause they consider it more valuable than gold.

How many agree and how many disagree with Peutz on his predictions for the 16th. It will be interesting to have a vote here, not to put him down, but just to see what the concensus is. I am leaning to agreeing with him though I don't believe in astrology. If it doesn't happen Tuesday, I look for an October date which is the historical month for things to turn down.

Selby: You may have to reinstall the software. It only takes a couple of minutes and "solves" a multitude of problems. Good luck.

Panda: Been there, done that and I have the t-shirt. You'll get it whipped tomorrow. Looks like I was wrong about SWC. They may not go anywhere until next year.

Lunar, Lunatic, Lunacy, all come from the root Luna. Luna was the ancient Roman goddess personifying the moon. We humans love to personify and anthropomorphize anything we don't understand. It can be an endearing trait as long as we don't burn disbelievers at the stake. : ) A lunatic was once known as "moonstruck", someone whose behavior was caused by the moon. Isn't it fair to say that investment behavior based on the moon is lunacy? hmmmmm? Does anyone really believe that human behavior is influenced by a large natural satellite which participates in eclipses on a frequent basis? There have been hundreds of eclipses during the past 10 years and the stock market has crashed UP. Puetz is plainly pulling your legs and LOL.

speed -- I should give up trading and become an "NT" 'expert'... :- ) ) At least it would be 'steady' income... :- ) ) Come to think of it, that's why I work in the first place! LOL :- ) ) ....

Who would of thunk that SWC would forward sell so much of their production? Platinum, no less. Talk about being BEARISH! jeeeesshh! Do you think these guys were cognizant enough of their own markets? Like palladium? Like the Russians not delivering?

Panda: I read the quarterly report and SWC hedged their 1997 production based on the thinking of one person. I once referenced that person as a village idiot. Now production is in the hands of a committee. HMMMM
SWC may surprise us at the quarter, who knows? 13 minutes between posts now. I'm gone.....

GreatGramps--My Humble Opinion--I think a big downturn in stocks is imminent. By that, I mean DAYS away. That statement by that Microsoft guy really got my attention! That may be the PRICK who gets blamed for popping this bubble!

Panda/Speed ( @ SWC ) : Sadly, I am coming to the same conclusion regarding that misbegotten piece of crap. I had thought that the forward sales were already built into the price. Evidently not. ...... It does make one wonder about managerial brilliance. Doesn't it??? ...."Managers ways are higher than our ways. Managers thoughts are higher than our thoughts". .... A common refrain from my years with GE.

Want to know how bad things really are? During the late 80's and early 90's, many companies "rightsized" their IS departments. The mindset back then was that mainframes were dynosaurs and so were the staff that maintained them. New technologies like CASE ( computer aided software engineering ) was going to make all programmers obsolete in a few years. The company I was working at back in the early 90's fired it's head of IS and hired a "visonary" who promtly outsourced the companies mainframe operations and then proceeded to lay off or force into early retirement most of the staff who spent the previous 20 years writing the companies mainframe based systems.

But then a strange thing happened. All the CASE vendors went out of business. Subsequent attempts to re-write those old centralized mainframe based systems in C++ running on networked PC's were dismal failures. Something to do with problems with distributed data and data integrity.

Meanwhile, the company had dropped it's maintenance agreements with it's vendor purchased mainframe software and some of the vendors had gone out of business.

Today, this companies mission critical systems are still running on it's
outsourced mainframe. Nothing has been upgraded in over 6 years.
The companies old COBOL software won't run under the newer versions of mainframe operating systems. All the people that wrote the old systems are gone. The only staff is a handful of C++ programmers left over from the failed attempts at rewriting the old mainframe based systems. The old personel system was purchased "object code only". The vendor that wrote it has since gone out of business. The vendors that are still in business are now producing new Y2K versions of the the companies software. Problem is, the company has put on any new releases of any mainframe software in 6 years. Getting to the new Y2K releases from the releases they are currently running will require an entirely new mainframe programming staff to incrementally install dozens of releases of new software, each release of which will require months of
work by dozens of programmers.

Yep, this company "rightsized" it's IS operations alright. Bet that all the money saved by laying off all those old programmers, dropping support agreements on all that old vendor software, and outsourcing that mainframe made the balance sheets look real good the last 10 years.

To put it simply, this company is screwed. It won't even be in the ballpark come Y2K.

This company is a fortune 1000 company with over 15,000 employees.