Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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Lewis Rukeyser
(Mon Sep 15 1997 00:01)

Programmer: Could you give the name of the company?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 00:02)
Dec. Gold down .60 @ 3-2-5.60 ....Nikkei on holiday....other Asian markets mixed.....Hang Seng up 256.03 ( 1.77% )

(Mon Sep 15 1997 00:03)
Earl, Speed -- To quote our 'great leader', I feeeel yuuuur pain! You would have thought that these guys MIGHT have had an inkling in to the markets to which they purport to do business in. After all, WE ARE talking about a rare precious metal, aren't we? ( Not the YELLOW stuff! ) It's getting late, and EBN is not updating. So I'm going to turn in, and awaken to whatever surprises await in the morning. I'm becoming more convinced with each passing day, that the futures markets are a much better way to play the metals. The PM stocks have the added disadvantage of tanking with the general market. I'll quit my whinning now. :- )

Good night all!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 00:11)
Governments - is it to late now?

Governments should issue their own money and never, never pay interest on it.
They should hire experts and pay them big bucks ( the best CEO salaries ) to make sure that just the right amount of this money enters the system. It should be carefully controlled.
Gold should back all money.
Deficits would be small as would be income taxes.
In the hands of honest well paid administrators, inflation should be minimal.
Interst paying bonds should only be issued by industry or toll use facilities. TO LATE NOW??? THEN BUY GOLD.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 00:13)
Nite Panda and all Kitcoites......Panda: is this capitulation??? maybe we are near the bottom for PM stox????

Senator Blutarsky
(Mon Sep 15 1997 00:48)
Was it OVER on July 4th when the Germans sold 167 tons of gold?m

Good night Ted.

Lan Man
(Mon Sep 15 1997 00:57)
@Just Thinking
For those that think that El Nino is nothing to fret about, let me tell you about how real it has become to us Californians.

Living here on the West Coast is a lot more laid back than the eastern or southern part of the U.S. At least until yesterday morning when the meteorologists started closely tracking Hurricane Linda off the baja peninsula. Being a category 5 storm with 200mph winds is new to us living in the eastern pacific. This is the FIRST one of the century. Think about it - storms of this magnitude do not occur here. Only in Florida or TexasAt least until now. This storm was so threatening that I even considered canceling my trout-fishing trip come Monday!

But as lady luck would have it, the storm is heading WNW away from land and is encountering cooler waters so it seems to be diminishing in size and ferocity. This time. With this recent awareness of hurricanes it got me to thinking - what If it had come ashore here. Our coastline is not prepared nor could it withstand a storm of this magnitude. What damage would the various ports-of-call have sustained? Movement of goods would have come to a screeching halt. Imagine the scenario.

Now granted it did not happen, yet, but if this is the first sign of El Nino, what can one expect in the near future? Heavy and persistent rains are forecast for Calif. this winter. Most likely will be warmer than normal so snowfall could be low. Which means that this year's 100-year floods maybe just a precursor to the coming 200-year floods!

I remember the early 80's storms. They picked up 10' tall boulders from the sea wall and threw them into the parking lots at the nearby marina! A cement boat broke loose of its mooring and ran into my cousin's trimaran. Unfortunate for the cement boat I might add. If this years El Nino is as bad as is predicted, it could really mess up the economy here, not to mention the entire US ( if Calif. were a nation, it would have the 7th largest GDP in the world ) .

There is at least one positive that I can think of. It is that all of the upcoming rains and floods should create wonderful opportunities for gold prospecting! New veins exposed plenty of placer gold in the rivers and streams.

But then again El Nino could just be a figment of our imagination. Maybe

(Mon Sep 15 1997 01:03)
Republic = Ruling Elite @ Canada = Overwhelmed by USofA.
Saturday, September 13, 1997

Industry minister says monarchy should go

OTTAWA ( CP ) -- Industry Minister John Manley says Canadians should say: "It's been a great institution," then move towards abolishing its association with the monarchy.

Aimers said in an interview from Toronto. He said the monarchy has defined Canada's independence in North America, a role a republican
entity replacing the monarchy -- as Manley implied -- would not be able to fulfil. "Otherwise we would have been more overwhelmed by American influences, culture and so on,"

said Aimers. "The only class who would benefit from a republic would be the ruling elite."

Lan Man
(Mon Sep 15 1997 01:09)
To Programmer (Y2K - A case study)
Some IS people call it payback time!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 01:10)
Kahunna Grande:
I was unable to come up with any company by the name of Giant Petroleum.
Is there another name? I want to study it as per your post concewrning
it and HOC. TIA

(Mon Sep 15 1997 01:11)
Barrick Gold @ Chile
September 14, 1997

Chile miners upset over closing of Barrick mines

SANTIAGO, Sept 14 ( Reuter ) - Chilean private sector miners union, upset over Barrick Gold Corp's plans to close two of its local mines, said it could call a national strike unless a "fair solution""was found for workers losing their jobs, local media reported on Sunday.

The Miners Confederation of Chile, which says it represents about 7,000 workers in private mining firms, said Barrick had only its financial interests in mind when it decided to close its El Tambo and El Indio gold mines by 1999, the dailies La Tercera and La Epoca reported.

Petronius(really a programmer too)
(Mon Sep 15 1997 01:18)
Your Y2K case study is nothing unique. All US engineering companies are best described by the Dilbert Jokes:
The management has seldom any clue about anything. The engineering staff most often consists of inept, un-educated people, often stuck in some obsolete technology, and whose only strength is inner-company politics. Anybody who tries to actually solve the problems is quickly run out of the company. Many attempts to introduce lasting solutions or new technologies have failed so the mode of operation is survival from crisis to crisis.

Once I realized all that, I have quit trying to have a sensible full time job, bought a house on to of the hill ( over 6000 feet altitude ) , set up my ten computers there and started enjoying life. Rather than fighting the status quo, I started making money on it. My specialty is solving engineering problems 5 minutes before midnight ( at very, very inflated prices ) . I come to a company that tried to solve a problem for years, now they have one month left, and I quote them the whole task while agreeing that I receive no money unless the problem is solved. I have not failed yet.

In between my programming show-offs I trade commodities and prepare for a major market crash, which I consider imminent. Everything around us hungs on rubber-bands.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 01:22)
10 Million Job Seekers @ China each year.
September 14, 1997

China to hold down jobless to 4.0 pct by 2000

BEIJING, Sept 15 ( Reuter ) - China's Minister of Labour Li Boyong has ruled out social unrest despite higher unemployment as a result of a far-reaching streamlining of state enterprises unveiled by President Jiang Zemin, state media said on Monday.

"Although deepening economic reform will cause certain pressure on employment, it will by no means touch off social unrest," the Xinhua news agency quoted Li as saying. Li, speaking during the Communist Party's 15th Congress that opened last Friday, said China's economy and society were capable of handling the rising pressure on employment in rural areas.

"No such 'disastrous outcome' as predicted by some overseas figures will go off," Li was quoted as saying. However, he conceded that China's huge labour force of 834 million did pose "quite a headache" to employment.

Each year, some 10 million more people were added to the job-seekers in towns and cities. Many of them came from the ranks of surplus factory workers, who numbered a staggering 20 million, he said.

"It is essential that laid-off workers change their traditional ideas and be brave enough to seek jobs out of state enterprises," Li said.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 01:23)
El Nino

Lan Man--The 1997 ENSO ( El Nino Southern Oscillation ) is beginning to get the recognition that it deserves. Your point, as I take, it is this-- We dodged a bullet with Hurricane Linda, but just barely. With this El Nino, we can expect more Lindas in the months ahead. And some may hit land.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 01:30)
50 Billion credit @ Gingrich = Corporate Welfare.
Gingrich urges House to eliminate tobacco break

But a single sentence inserted into the bill at the last minute gave the industry a $50 billion credit -- the amount that could be raised by the new tax -- against the proposed $368.5 billion tobacco settlement, should Congress enact it.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 01:39)
@Regular Poster's 22:18
Hmm Regular poster, why no handle? You have indicted me for maintaining my anonymity. In any case, I am highly amused by posts such as yours. A little late night levity is great to start the new week. Purporting to describe the proper demeanor for this forum you say in regard to me that I am;

* Psychologically deranged
* A creep
* A Sick Man
* In a sorry state of mental health
* Poster child for anti social behaviour
* Poster of "Useless garbage"

Now then Regular poster who didn't post your true handle, but acuse me of "hiding", answer one question for me. In summing your above derogatory list of hostile inflammatory adejctives and descriptions, could you please tell me one post I've made that comes close to making so many personally insulting remarks toward a single individual? This is why posts like your amuse me "regular", it's the "Pot calling the kettle black" only the kettle got burnt beyonf recognition!!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 01:45)
Elitist Premier Jerks @ Want to destroy My Country. Canada.c/w Quebec.
Monday, September 15, 1997
Premiers map unity strategy

CALGARY ( CP ) -- Nine federalist premiers have agreed to consult citizens in their provinces on how to square recognition of Quebec's unique status with the principle of equality for all provinces.

But they also left the process open Sunday to a range of other constitutional issues and allowed each province wide leeway in how to go about the task.

Consequently, they said the Quebec legislature has a role to protect and develop the unique character of Quebec within Canada.

"It's a different kind of approach," said Brian Tobin of Newfoundland, who acknowledged the need to avoid the impression of an elitist, closed-door process that undermined the previous Meech Lake and Charlottetown accords.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 01:48)
@Auric, LanMan
El Nino isn't likely to spawn West coast U.S. hurricanes in the coming months because the weather will be cooling and the Jet stream, storm track originates in the Gulf of Alaska. However, massive flooding in Southern CA is certainly in the cards. In the 1982 El Nino, we had 18 inches rain in a 24 hour period when a Gulf of Alaska storm intersected with the "Pinapple Express" of tropical moisture from Hawaii right over the Santa Cruz mountains. I personally experienced a few tons of mud up our rear ends ( back of the house ) and other less fortunate folks had larger slides that buried them alive. ( Where they reside to this day as the slide is too massive to even dig out ) . I like rain, but not exactly looking forward to this winter. Don't see how it'll affect anyone's investments though....

(Mon Sep 15 1997 02:00)
Working Class = Labouring Proletariat @ China
Monday, September 15, 1997

Chinese officials squelch talk of state industry selloff

BEIJING ( AP ) -- When is a privatization not a privatization? When the Chinese government is doing the privatizing.

Zhang chuckled when a reporter asked whether workers who own shares in their companies would lose their hallowed communist status as members of the laboring proletariat.
"All the workers in enterprises will forever belong to the working class," he said.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 02:06)
Wall Street Praying for a Bear Market?
How is that for strange news?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 02:07)
Working Class = Labouring Proletariat @ Israel
September 14, 1997

Israel unions continue work disruptions

JERUSALEM ( Reuter ) - Israel's labor unions said Sunday they would continue work disruptions at selected government offices and public sector companies on Monday in a campaign against government spending cuts.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 02:08)
To The Poster Formerly Known As LurkingGbug

LGB--My point was that the weather does have an effect on investments. In Indonesia, for example, there is a looming disaster in their agricultural sector. Now you tell me, how many more billions is that going to add to SE Asia's bill? My advice is to reread Lan Man's post for a first hand view of this.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 02:15)
Petronius @ 02:06
Did not find material.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 02:18)
Metal Froward Selling is like a box of Chocolates
How many gold mines have sold five times their production 10 years forward?
How many Central Banks have leased all their gold?
Does Greenspan have any gold left?
Mr. Greenspan SHOW ME YOUR GOLD!!! ( Or is it just empty pants? )

(Mon Sep 15 1997 02:41)
How long did it take market to fall 40% in '87?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 02:57)
6pak - did not find material
Sorry about that. AP has a site log-in feature. When you click on the link given by me you will see AP newspaper member list. Select LA Times. In LA Times, in top corner selection box, select _AP_Wire. After doing that, you will be registered as a LA Times reader; if you go back to Kitco and follow on the link given by me it will work. ( But you can instead select business and find the article there ) .

(Mon Sep 15 1997 03:03)

Putless--It took less than two months to fall 40%. On October 16, 1987, the DJIA fell about 108 points. That was a fall from aproximately 2300 to 2200. On Monday Octoer 19, 1987 the DJIA fell 508 points to 1700 and change. This was all from a high of about 2700 in August of 1987.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 03:13)
@ Help
Does anyone use EBN UK to get latest update on commodity prices?
My URL for them just gives Sept 13th prices and reloading has no effect.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 03:15)
Putless @ Petronius @ 2:41 @ 2:18
Your questions can be answered at Gold-Eagle. Great site,Much Much

Petronius @ 2:57 re: material. Thanks. Take care.

The Gold Digest section garners valuable information and reports from around the world, written by recognized seers in areas related to precious metals, global markets and international economics - which are inextricably related.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 03:21)
...... Perry Mason .....

LGB ( @ 01:48 Wrote:

"El Nino isn't likely to spawn West coast U.S. hurricanes in the coming months because the weather will be cooling and the Jet stream, storm track originates in the Gulf of Alaska. However, massive flooding in Southern CA is certainly in the cards."

From me:
This is exactly opposite of what most qualified hurricane science experts from the brewing El Nino. The main characteristic of the El Nino phenomena is its unpredictability. Meteorologist have a tough enough time forecasting more the 5 days in advance. Lurky should have a shot at the Nobel when he publicizes his calm predictions of the next winter. A more likely scenario: Seems that lurky has made a hobby from automatically taking the opposing opinion and his target. The opinion is not deeply held, it may have been formed minutes before the post. He does this to stay in the middle of things. I believe that is why he deliberately goes out of his way to display his petulant whinings. When he provokes response, he feels important, and in an odd way, he gets some of the love he is so confused about finding

This El Nino will drastically change weather pattern world wide. No one can predict what the effects will be.. Only LGB, the only one in the world, has discerned the outlook for this winter along the California coast. Bravo, boy-pup.

I'll take Puetz's moons before Lurky's meteorological meanderings. Seems like he can do just about anything,; Lift cars with one arm, put limits on the stars and planets, talk out of three sides of his mouth at once, and save the world from what he calls snake oil salesman. Snake Oil was a favorite phrase of HC. He has used this line in numerous posts. This is also the phrase that hep cat used to defend his hostility. I notice he quoted as a source the JAMA. This too was a favorite source fro the hepster.

BART ! !
is it possible for you to lock someone out, just for them to come back at you from another source? My thinking is; uninstall netscape, choose different Internet access provider, and log on here with another name, another e-mail address? I am beginning to believe LGB lurky is one and the same with our old nemesis HC.

I have found numerous similarities in the writing style of Lurky. Many phrases, style, syntax, juvenile wit, ass kissing make up sessions, and complete hostility and superiority. He could care less what the topic is, he wants to be loved, so he is all out there everywhere, all the time. Sound familiar.

Maybe some other would go back to some of Hep Cat's old posts and do some comparison between the and now.

Let me state this clearly. LGB = HEPCAT

They are one and the same, I am convinced of this. The coincidence is simply to remote. Who else would show up at this site, using the same words, describing the exact same trades and trading strategies, and attack all with highly recognizable juvenile petty insults. It's him. I may be wrong, so maybe some others here could do a little digging into HC old post, July's should be best. I'll warrent the we will find enire sentences lifted from old posts and posted here. If this is the case, let me add lazy to Lurky's extensive list of undesirable qualities.

The Jury is in as far as I am concerned. This equation will fly: LGB = HECAT.

Count on it.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 03:25)
On the subject of selling forward, I saw that the president of Royal Oak paid herself a 1,000,000$ bonus for having had the wherewithal to have sold forward. oink oink snort. Even though the share price was down about 150% and is now down about 300%. The management is paid higher than the management of other gold producers but the results have been lower than average.

I've never been able to figure out why the Colomac deposit was put into production. It was a known deposit for a long time, about 50 years?, and it was widely regarded as being uneconomic. When Kilborn produced a very favourable feasibility study, I could not believe how they could have arrived at that. When the mine had initial good results I was quite surprised that they seemed to have made a success of it, ( I guess I was wrong I thought ) but that success was short lived, as was the mine.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 03:26)
@Your Service

Reify--EBN Commodities-- ( will repost URL if wrong )

(Mon Sep 15 1997 03:29)
@ oops

Reify-- Go here--

(Mon Sep 15 1997 03:31)

Reify--03:29 URL is correct for EBN Commodities.

Senator Blutarsky
(Mon Sep 15 1997 03:41)

This is in regards to your postulation. Resolved: LGB Is HepCat. $500 to a favorite charity says RJ is right. Any takers?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 03:43)
Berkshire @ Bond's Bought
September 15, 1997

Berkshire Hathaway snapping up bonds - Journal

NEW YORK ( Reuter ) - Berkshire Hathaway has been a big buyer of bonds in the past month, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday, citing traders familiar with the transactions.

The paper said Berkshire's buying took place in the five-week period that ended just over a week ago.

In all, the traders estimate Berkshire bought nearly $10 billion face amount of bonds at a cost just over $2 billion, the paper said.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 03:51)
Trade Talks @ China (No gold mentioned)
September 15, 1997

China sees little hope of WTO entry at summit

BEIJING ( Reuter ) - China said Monday it held out little hope of reaching an accord with the United States on Beijing's bid to enter the World Trade Organization ( WTO ) during a presidential summit in Washington next month.

The United States and China were working hard to resolve differences over Beijing's application to join the global trade body, but would be unlikely to finalize an agreement when Chinese President Jiang Zemin meets President Clinton in late October, officials said.

"There is a big basket of issues and they are discussing them bit by bit, but my sense is that there are still significant differences between the Chinese and Western negotiating positions on WTO," Seel said.

Senator Blutarsky
(Mon Sep 15 1997 04:00)
They Took The Bar! The Whole F***ing bar!

Steve Puetz: Here's to hoping you win our little wager. Are you still of the opinion that the Dow will get below 4500 before October 31, 1997?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 04:19)
As it is the wee hour of the mornin' for most of you--whilst we down under are enjoying a fine sunny afternoon ( temperature 20 degrees--68 to you Ted ) and the Kiwis are all out "tending" their sheep, I will make a comment for all Kitcoites.

Re: all the recent moaning and groaning about squelch buttons etc.

It is obvious to me that none of you have read Jean M. Auel's books ( The Clan of the Cave Bear etc. ) . In her novels the caveman/woman had a very effective way of treating people they considered outcasts. After the proper spells etc. were cast by the shaman the person in question ceased to exist. This was the worst thing that could happen to a person in caveman society. To cease to exist means you become both literally and figuratively "invisible". I would strongly suggest that the same approach should be adopted at Kitco. If someone,for example, decides that MY posts are obnoxious and unbearable--there is a very simple remedy!! You leave your mouse pointed at that little arrow in the corner and whenever you see Nick@Canberra you hold down the left hand button until you scroll to the next posting. No-one is forcing you to read what I am painfully typing with two fingers ( because in high school I took Mandarin instead of typing as an elective--still can't bloody speak Chinese either ) . Whatever you do, do not REPLY to an obnoxious post. We will not think any less of you for not defending yourself. In good time the obnoxious poster will tire of the lack of response and go elsewhere. I do not intend to point out any particular posters on this site as unacceptable--that is what YOU will do with your mouse. If you do not, eg, have the intestinal fortitude to press the "off" button on your remote control when something unacceptable appears on TV--Do not blame the TV station!!! They are not forcing you to watch!! I happen to enjoy some of the postings from some of the people that have raised a bit of "Cain" on this site. When I feel that a poster is getting boring/obnoxious/or simply a waste of my time--I simply give them the finger! ( right index on mouse!! ) . The essence of freedom is having access to whatever info you want--do not EVER try to circumscribe that freedom for me. THIS site is the essence of freedom! Use your finger and stop your whining!!!!!

Senator Blutarsky
(Mon Sep 15 1997 04:30)
From Now On Your Delta Name Is Flounder
RJ: What do you think of my wagers so far? LGB=HepCat! $500 says so.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 04:36)
Four different ways to tank at:
Links at bottom of page.

The only one mising is the up-tank variety.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 04:43)
free-for-all.@ Democracy
September 15, 1997

A measure of stability comes to Russia

But Yeltsin shouldn't pop the champagne cork just yet.

Senator Blutarsky
(Mon Sep 15 1997 04:46)
The Land Of Oz

Howdy mates. What do you think about the 167 ton gold sale? Bill Buckler don't like it. Why the Hell did they do that? I have yet to hear a satisfactory explanation.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 04:47)
Reporting @ Kitco
Harvest Moon eh! : ) : ) : ) : ) Nite Take care.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 04:55)
Nick@Aussie, greetings from Nick@Canberra. A lot of people out there think we are one and the same. I enjoy your no-nonsense, informative posts! Good on yer, mate. Keep it up. PS--good name you've got there. Just be thankful that Nick@LA is no longer posting here.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 05:12)
RJ--you're spot on mate!!
Those silver and platinum charts are a betting man's dream! ( ps--I am a betting man ) . Gold looks like it's tryin' hard but has got a little bump to get over. Keep posting!! I bought lots of Koalas at US405 and I'm already smilin' ( am thinking of putting Aussie dollars on a roll and putting them into the smallest room in my house!! ) .

(Mon Sep 15 1997 05:17)

Just curious mates. Was "Breaker Morant" a popular film in Australia? It's one of my favorites. Bryan Brown is quite an actor, as is Edward Woodward.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 05:22)
@Thanks but no help
AURIC -- Do appreciate your try, but you must try it yourself, I get the same as before- Sept 13 no change! They're probably down. Thanks for the try.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 05:29)
@ Home

Reify-- I think EBN only updates Monday through Friday. They do have good stock and currency updates every 15 minutes during trading hours. Off to find their main URL! AWAY!!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 05:34)
Reify--Try This URL

EBN Site-- htp://

(Mon Sep 15 1997 05:35)
Reify--Try THIS URL

(Mon Sep 15 1997 05:42)
Auric--right on, mate. A very popular film down here. We also like to celebrate the battles where many a gallant Aussie met his maker--eg Gallipoli -- the WW I site where Aussies were pinned down on a Turkish beach ( under Pommie command ) and fought a gallant but hopeless battle. If you ever want to understand what makes Aussies tick, then study this battle, as it goes straight to the heart of all Aussies.
We celebrate ANZAC DAY to commemorate this battle, play "two-up" and all get very drunk. There is no more sacred date in our calendar.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 05:47)
Jumbo Japanese bank struggles to meet BIS standards.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 05:57)
G'day Donald. The Aussie market thinks the Dow/S&P will be up today and gold stocks down. So what else is new. Does it take a war to flip the hour glass?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 06:08)

Here is an account of The Battle Of Gallipoli. Dedicated to Oz.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 06:14)
Thanks Auric-isn't this 'net amazing.

For El Nino buffs--we're suffering down here as well.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 06:24)
In My Recliner

Nick--The Net is indeed amazing. I am sitting in my recliner, feet propped up, watching Kitco on a 27 inch TV. The picture is crystal clear, and the colors rule!

Mike Sheller
(Mon Sep 15 1997 06:30)
Trading the Rhino
The return move in Bonds from the breakout from a Rhino downtrend pattern has held very nicely. Too nicely. ANY upward movement today in the Long Bond will break the Bond out for a run back to recent highs of around 117. This activity would not bode well for a crash ( or even a decline ) scenario this week, eclipse or no. If the Bond gets above 117, which it could very well do, we are looking at a possible run at the highs for stocks. The big top is forming now, but it may likely be a PROCESS rather than an immediate reversal. The Utilities are very solid, and until they start to slide ( they are better than a crystal ball ) this market may have some surprising positive action left. There is always room, however, for an exogenous event out of the blue to cast a pall of gloom over investors in a gut-wrenching moment. Other than that, if the Bond continues up now, a rally of several weeks in stocks from here may be imminent.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 06:33)
Auric---I subscribe to two newspapers, two magazines and three financial/investment newsletters. I'm thinking of cancelling the lot and just sending the money to Donald instead.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 06:35)

April 25, 1915.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 06:37)

Nick--Not a bad strategy. I listen to everything Donald has to say.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 06:45)
Auric--if I'm not too intrusive--whereabouts is youse located. Remember my post on giving me the finger if too intrusive.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 06:53)

Nick--I am sitting comfortably ensconced in my over-stuffed recliner on the Northside of Indianapolis. Hey, its a rough job, but someone has to do it :- ) )

(Mon Sep 15 1997 06:58)
@the Journal
Fire when ready, Gridley!

September 15, 1997
U.K. To Revive
Debt-Related Gold Sale
Campaign - Newspaper

AP-Dow Jones News Service

LONDON -- British Chancellor Gordon
Brown will revive a campaign Tuesday to
sell part of the International Monetary Fund's
gold reserves as a way to cancel the debt of
the world's poorest countries by the year
2000, The Guardian reported Monday.

According to the British newspaper, Brown
will tell a Commonwealth finance ministers
meeting in Mauritius that cutting this debt
will free domestic resources in those
countries to invest in education, health and
pverty relief. Brown then plans to seek
support for his plan at a Group of Seven
industrialized nations meeting in Hong Kong
next week. Germany has been a strong
opponent of the IMF gold-sale idea.

The Guardian said that Brown, at the
Mauritius meeting, will set a series of
targets for cutting $5.6 billion of Western
debt. By the year 2000 he wants 75% of the
world's poorest countries, most in
sub-Saharan Africa, to have schemes in
place to cut their debt with the IMF and
other official creditors, selling up to 5
million ounces of IMF gold in the process.

A similar plan put forth last year, supported
by former U.K. Chancellor Kenneth Clarke,
resulted in only one country, Uganda, setting
up plans to reduce its debt burden.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 07:02)
@The Journal
Even Warren Buffett Is Betting
His Chips on the Bond Table


NEW YORK -- Bond bulls, rejoice:
You've got good company.

Berkshire Hathaway, run by renowned
investor Warren Buffett, has been a big
buyer of bonds in the past month, according
to several traders familiar with the
transactions. Mr. Buffett and other
Berkshire Hathaway executives declined to
comment. But the traders say the buying
took place in a five-week period that
ended just over a week ago. In all, the
traders estimate that Berkshire Hathaway
bought nearly $10 billion face amount of
bonds at a cost of just over $2 billion. The
traders say the bond positions have not yet
been liquidated.

"Talk that Buffett has been buying has been
a real factor in the bond market in the last
month," said Brad Golding, a trader at
DKB Financial Products. Rumors of his
purchases were first reported in Forbes

Now, the question is whether cash for the
bonds could have come from Berkshire's
vast stock portfolio, valued at nearly $34
billion as of June 30. If Mr. Buffett is in
fact selling stocks to buy bonds it could
pose problems for the stock market. Mr.
Buffett, known as the Oracle of Omaha, has
created a fortune through a patient
buy-and-hold strategy, and if any stock
selling is borne out, it could send a signal
to individual investors to temper their
enthusiasm for stocks.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 07:05)
Auric--my favorite niece attends Notre Dame. Somewhere down your way? She's even thinking of becoming a Catholic!! Shiver me timbers!!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 07:06)
Hi to you, Nick@Canberra.
Here's some more reading on Y2k:

Almost the flavour of the month? Must be golds turn next month.

Anyone out there know if this Y2K problem will affect small fixed chips in the many appliances that we use these days.
Also would it have the chance to impact on CD's. All their data being digital. I'd sure hate to miss out on my music.
Seems to me that the job of reconfiguring all this Y2K mess might be bigger than than the repair job.

I was explaining it to my 84yr old father today and as an analogy I used the sewerage system. Sort of like if all toilet flush buttons failed, would we just replace the button, replace the whole toilet or rebuild the whole sewerage system. Imagine doing that in a city of 10 million population, let alone the whole world.
To have to replace the interconectivity of all computors is truly mindboggling!
Somewhere I read that the was over 100 different ways to fix the problem within the code, and if we all do it differently its going to take one hell of a long time to get that done with all the facets working properly again.

Seems to me that long term out of the money puts in equities ( don't know whether you can buy them with a strike after 2000 ) could be as good a nestegg as long term out of the money calls in gold.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 07:08)
last one
Buffett buys bonds, Pension plans pare portfolios, Global gurus gas gold.

Balancing Act: Investors
Sell Off Bigger Stocks

Dow Jones Newswires

Some long-term investors are making long
overdue efforts to rejigger their weighty
stock portfolios.

The low-profile, long-term managers who
compose the nation's $2.45 trillion
pension-fund industry are finding that the
stock market's three-year romp to
progressively higher records has left their
funds top-heavy with stocks.

Now, worried that valuations are simply
too lofty, they are paring back stock
holdings and putting the cash into bonds,
foreign stocks and other assets, including
real estate.

"There's a decided shift in attitudes among
pension managers," says Thomas Galvin,
U.S. market strategist at Deutsche Morgan
Grenfell. "They've been a little slow to
rebalance in the last few years, but they're
picking up the pace, and that's creating a
lot of the volatility that we see in the
big-cap indexes. It's really weighing on
these stocks."

It isn't only pension funds that are retooling
their beefy stock portfolios. Many other
investors with the same buy-and-hold
strategy are singing the same tune, traders
and others say.

Typically, pension funds have target
allocations for U.S. stocks and other
assets, including bonds, foreign stocks and
real estate. Traditionally, they have stuck
closely to those allocations, varying them
by only a few percentage points. But over
the past few years, managers have been
encouraged to let their stock-market
winnings ride, and it has been a successful
strategy. Too successful, perhaps.

"We had allowed the runup in stock prices
to tilt our portfolios much more toward
U.S. equities than we had ever before,
nearly 10 [percentage points] above our
target allocations," says George Jacobsen,
chief investment officer at Trevor Stewart
Burton & Jacobsen, a New York
money-management firm with $1.5 billion
in assets. That above-average allocation
was intentional, he says: The firm correctly
believed that U.S. stocks would outperform
other asset classes.

But last March, Mr. Jacobsen, worried
about stock valuations and intrigued by the
potential he saw in bonds, began
rebalancing portfolios. In early August, as
the Dow Jones Industrial Average rocketed
to its record of 8259.31, a gain of 28.09%
for the year, he and others intensified their
selling. During the market's rocky ride of
the past six weeks, pension-fund
consultants say managers have become still
more aggressive, meeting each attempted
rally with selling.

"A move back up toward 8000 might be an
encouragement to rebalance some more,"
says R. Barry Thomas, managing director
at RogersCasey, a pension-fund consulting
company and a unit of Barra Inc. "There's
definitely a mood to take advantage of
upward runs to withdraw cash."

Rebalancing-related selling may accelerate
next month, as money managers review
third-quarter performance and compare
actual allocations with their targets. This
week, California Public Employees
Retirement System, or Calpers, the giant
state pension plan with $127 billion in
assets, will conduct its annual
asset-allocation review. Currently, the
proposed exposure to U.S. stocks is 38%,
although actual exposure is closer to 44%,
says Charles Valdes, head of the fund's
investment policy committee. He says he
expects any change to be "minimal" despite
a recent intensive discussion about high
stock-market valuations.

"I think plan sponsors are going to be much
more inclined to act to trim U.S. equity
allocations this quarter than they might
have been in any other quarter," says Ron
Peyton, president of Callan Associates, a
San Francisco pension-fund consultant.

Grace Messner, head of value equity
management at Wilmington Trust, which
manages more than $6 billion in assets,
agrees. Some of the most ardent bulls
among her clients, she says, a few of whom
have kept as much as 80% of their
portfolio in U.S. stocks, are deciding that
"it's now the better part of valor to cut back
a little." While taken alone each change
represents only a few percentage points,
she adds, collectively, the size of the
selling "is probably having a depressant
effect on the stock market right now."

The impact is heaviest on big stocks and
those that have had the largest gains in the
past few years. To Deutsche Morgan
Grenfell's Mr. Galvin, that explains why
the Dow industrials and the S&P 500-stock
index have lagged behind smaller stocks in
recent weeks.

Most at risk are the stocks that make up the
S&P 500, since index funds have posted
the biggest gains and are the cheapest and
easiest assets to sell, consultants and
managers agree. Stocks that have seen big
runs, such as Dell Computer, up 386% in
the past 12 months, also are vulnerable, as
managers cut overexposure to specific
sectors or companies.

During the summer, Mr. Galvin argues,
pension-fund selling of these stocks was
masked by buying from individual
investors, who continued to pour money
into mutual funds. As those flows slowed
in August -- when the Investment Company
Institute estimates that stock funds saw
flows slump to $13.5 billion from $26
billion in July -- the pressure became more
apparent, he says. Analysts and money
managers worry what will happen if -- or
when -- individual investors start
rebalancing their own portfolios.

"The real worry that our clients have is
what happens if individual investors
liquidate their equity holdings," says Mr.
Thomas of RogersCasey. "They're going to
act a lot more precipitously than the
institutions when they sell, just as they
were more aggressive buyers. Institutions
move cautiously, over time."

William Mikus, an investment adviser in
Hermosa Beach, Calif., says the
rebalancing process already is under way
among individual investors. His new
clients, he says, are "overloaded" with
S&P 500 index funds, while some have all
of their portfolio in big U.S. stocks. His
first step, he says, is to slash exposure to
this group.

"People were shocked early this month
when they saw the difference in
performance in August between their
self-directed investments, which have lots
of stocks like Gillette in them, and a more
balanced portfolio," Mr. Mikus says. "I
wouldn't be at all surprised to see them
respond to that difference by doing a lot
more selling... . It's not inconceivable that
at some point, rebalancing among
individuals becomes a torrent of selling."

(Mon Sep 15 1997 07:08)
Nice picture of gold bars. Check out this story goldbugs. Must be time to buy gold when everyone is this negative.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 07:16)

Nick--Notre Dame is located in South Bend, Indiana. That is about 150 miles north of Indianapolis. No question that it is a fine University, but I think that if it were a Stock, it would be way over-valued.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 07:20)
Blutarsky 04:46
The Australian CB sale is mostly a mystery to me, and I can find little excuse for it. All the reasons I can think of are either inappropriate for a central bank, or unlikely in light of the facts. I tend to imagine it was part of a plan to bring about the Aussie govt's budget surplus this year, but don't ask me how this plan works/worked : )

(Mon Sep 15 1997 07:25)

Notre Dame Price--Tuition, Room and Board, Books-- $23,850 per year.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 07:37)
Good mornin everyone!....quiet mornin for equities and Dec. Gold down .80 @ 3-2-5.40 ......Weather: 66 degrees + sunny with a calm sea...

George Cole
(Mon Sep 15 1997 07:38)
CB selling
GLENN; Thanks for the info re:CB selling going on now. Confirm's Armstrong's observations.

December gold off 80 cents. Joberg flat.

I remain in the moderate bear camp. No crash this week, but no run to new highs either. Still looking for 7000 by the end of October.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 07:47)

either IT is he, or IT is a bastard child of hep-rat-cat.
no question about it. it has nothing to do, but chide
and denegrate any and all.

lgb---you chicken choker......let him sleep!

Senator Blutarsky
(Mon Sep 15 1997 07:53)
Now DROP and give me TWENTY.

aweihv: None of the reported reasons for the Aussie Gold sale make any sense. Was it meant to stem the bleeding in SE Asia? It isn't working so far. Do you REALLY believe that the Central Bank of Australia would have made such a move without Alan Greenspan's blessing and/or encouragement?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 07:56)
@Perry Mason
RJ ( 3:21 ) Could "it" be....There certainly ARE some similarities....hmmmmm.
....Mornin Senator Blutarsky! Puetz: Anything short of a nuclear war in the next 24 hours and yer "crash prediction" is poof....Go Boilermakers!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 07:59)
NICK@C: Good morning. A war? With 100 Russian suitcase nuclear bombs unaccounted for? I hope not. I like the news about Buffett and other pension funds moving toward bonds. I also have known about one very, very large private fund that moved very heavily into bonds several weeks ago. I can't disclose the name but I expect it to be public soon. It is too soon to be euphoric about the Dow/Gold Ratio but it is acting like we have seen the ratio top. Knock on wood. It is important to remember that the Dow and gold could both drop and the ratio would improve if the Dow drops faster. That is what I expect. The risk in stocks in huge, the risk in gold is minor, but there is risk in both.

Senator Blutarsky
(Mon Sep 15 1997 08:06)
To aweihv

Good morning Ted. Look, I'm not saying you Antipodeans don't have guts. Its just that no Australian Central Bank would DARE make such a bold move on their own.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 08:07)
notre dame ( football ) has felt the corrective
effects the pendulum. one cannot ride the crest
of the tsunami for perpetuity. there are natural
expansions and contractions in nature. we are
part of nature, and a major contraction due to
chaos and flux is inbound for the equities and
curriencies of the world. el nino' is going to
be icing on the cake, with food shortages and
weather related flux for all.

chaos and flux.....appearing at YOUR neighborhood
theater SOON.

teddy--------how's willyyyyyyy?

cherokee!; ) dotssmfatimm-----------

(Mon Sep 15 1997 08:12)
TED: Good morning. How do you get 66 being 400 miles north and we get only 62? On the Puetz prediction. When you go back and examine the crashes of 1929 and 1987 there is no large news event associated with them. I would not expect a big crash until the Dow was down 10%. That is 7470. The 10% feature is pretty standard before you get to the messy stuff. But folks say the market likes to fool people.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 08:13)
Philippine Banks
Deutsche Morgan said an increase in non-performing loans and an expected decline in the banking sector's earnings growth
have prompted it to downgrade its recommendation to underweight from neutral.

It said about 20 percent of dollar loans extended by banks were unhedged.

Singson said dollar loans have been mainly to big and well-managed corporations, while 81 percent of foreign currency
deposits are from residents.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 08:14)
@ paper + CherOkee
Cherokee: Willy is @ my we speak...he's chillin....Who says those paper certificates ain't worth nothin:X
Rise in Heavy Trading Action


TORONTO -- Those Bre-X Minerals Ltd. shares are
worth something after all.

Paul O'Neill was doing a brisk business hawking share
certificates of the scandal-ridden gold company on the
streets of downtown Toronto last week.

Standing near the former Toronto Stock Exchange, Mr.
O'Neill wore an old black hat with a yellow cardboard
Bre-X sign on top. The sight drew scores of curious
passersby, some of whom paid US$18 for a framed
certificate. Rolled-up certificates went for $7.

"You wouldn't believe it," Mr. O'Neill said, when asked
how sales were going. He added that he made nearly
$50 in the first half hour of his shift.

The certificates being sold on the streets aren't the real
thing. They're reprints of a certificate that a colleague of
Mr. O'Neill had from his own Bre-X holdings. That
hawker, who wouldn't give his name, said he'd had an
offer of $215 -- more than the shares' price at their peak
-- for a genuine Bre-X certificate. Sales are so good that
the operation might head to New York, he added.

In Toronto, where the Bre-X fiasco still dominates
conversation, some brokers are buying the share
certificates to remind themselves of the risks of playing
the market. Others are making peace offerings to clients
who lost a lot of money on Bre-X shares.

A year ago, Bre-X was valued at some $4 billion, as the
tiny Calgary, Alberta, mining company touted its
discovery of the world's biggest gold deposit in
Indonesia. Shares fetched $200 each at their peak last
year on the TSE, which closed in April in favor of
automated trading. Independent mining consultants
earlier this year proved the gold discovery to be a giant
fraud, and sophisticated mining specialists and retail
investors alike lost money in the shares' plunge.

But in an early sign of demand for souvenirs, brokers
said that after the company was delisted, some people
bought shares at eight cents apiece in hopes of getting a

Last week, passerby Bernard Chinapen stopped to take
a look at the Bre-X certificates, but declined to buy one.
"I don't want to be reminded," he said, admitting he lost
more than $7,000 on Bre-X shares. He still plays the
market, though.

A few more customers gathered. The hawker started his
pitch. "Greatest thing on the market... ."

John Disney
(Mon Sep 15 1997 08:30)
To All
Ive become fascinated by the lease rate. Moreover,
by the combination of the lease rate and the foward rate.
Now, I presume that all of you know this - and maybe
one of you could explain to me why the following happens.
If the lease rate goes up, then the forward rate drops
almost exactly by the same amount. If the lease rate
drops the reverse is true. Why daddy why??
The sum of the gold lease rate and the forward rate is
a little over 6 %. The sum of the lease and forward rate
for silver is almost exactly the same. They are about
2.5% below the prime rate of 8.5%. I dont know what the
platinum/palladium situation is because Kitco hasn't
got the data. I suspect that the sum of the numbers is
above the prime rate. Does anyone know??.
It occurs to be that one could use the mechanism for
financing. IE, lease gold and sell it to spring cash, then
put up 10-20 % of the cash to buy gold forward to eliminate
risk. If I'm not being stupid, the cost of financing
would be about 6%, corrected by whatever you have to put
up on the forward puchase - if 10% then your cost is
6/.9 or 6.7% - well below the 8.5% prime rate. Is this
possible ?? Am I wrong??
In 1993 we were looking at a vastly different prime
rate - and by eyeball of the Kitco charts it seems like
the sum of lease plus forward was greater than the
prime rate.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 08:33)
Must be El Nino er somethin.....S+P futures down .10....

(Mon Sep 15 1997 08:33)
The Inger Letter Forecast - 11 September 1997
Bigfoot is coming out of the bog... recommends 50% cash position. DOW 5700-6400 seems to be reasonable price level at this time. Suspects Institutional selling:

(Mon Sep 15 1997 08:40)
South American economies
The bank warned, however, that economic stability had given rise to "overshooting" in spending and credit expansion that
could not be sustained.
"Spending and credit booms lead to financial, external and fiscal vulnerabilities," the report said, noting that banks tended to
overlend and become exposed.
A tendency to increase public spending during booms and particularly during elections meant foreign debt increases and an
appreciation of currencies that hurt the competitiveness of the countries' exports, the report said.
The IDB said the region's structural reforms were not yet finished, mainly in tax collection, regulatory and judicial systems and
the privatization of state companies.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 08:44)

Vronsky--Do you have anything at the Gold-Eagle site that could answer John Disney's questions on the Gold Lease Rate? If that is an important indicator, then let's look into it!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 08:52)
@the scene
Being a 'bit' of a contrarian to the news, I think stocks will proceed upwards, given all the 'correction' type negative press lately. BUT, there is a chance that something 'different' is in the offing somehow. I don't think we'll necessarily see it before it should happens though, unless you are watching the charts very very closely. That's always the first 'sign' of news.
Just remember that as a Tsunami comes near, the water pulls out to sea first and leaves the sea bottom exposed. That's not to be seen yet in gold, IMHO.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 08:56)
Lease Rates(climbing up)
The one-month lease rate--the charge asked in return for lending one- month gold--increased to around 4.2%, compared with
just 2% at the start of last week.

"There's been more borrowing. It's been going on for awhile and that's produced a drastic rise. There's panic borrowing,
especially in the 2-3 month forwards. It's getting tighter and there's clearly no liquidity," said one dealer.

However, she said there was "nothing happening" in the spot gold market this morning. "Spot gold is not reacting with the
forwards yet, it may do further down the line though."

(Mon Sep 15 1997 09:11)
Lease Rates

John Disney--Try this for historical lease rate info--

(Mon Sep 15 1997 09:11)
TED -- It's not capitulation, it's reality. Everytime some news comes out gold, good or bad, the stuff barely moves up or drops like a rock. Clearly, although late, capital preservation is in order here. If I hedge my positions with shorts, I lock in my loses. Usually, the stocks rise after I short them. This has become a market of, "Your damned if you do, and damned if you don't." Either way, it sucks the cash out of your pocket. When gold does come back, what does it profit me to break even for all of my, 'efforts'. No, it's time to pare back and stand aside. We may be getting close to a turn ( ??? ) , but I'll be damned if I can figure it out! My position in coins, of all flavors, is much more comforting. They will have some 'final' value as opposed to these stocks in companies run by idiots. No, TED, the PM stocks make me feel very uncomfortable now. Hell, I feel better holding tech stocks! At least they have some volume! Like I said, I think futures are the place to be if you want to play the metals game. The PM stocks have the triple whammey of, ( 1 ) Being out of favor. ( 2 ) Very subject to the general market trend, if not more exagerated. ( 3 ) Easily manipulated during 'witching' periods due to index expirations.

I haven't given up TED. Just damned disgusted with managment and the stocks performance. Fear not though! Every year end proxy vote that I get, invariably there's a request to INCREASE the stock option plan for the top boys! BBL.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 09:20)
@the scene
To clarify my last posting a bit, I do think the next decline in stocks and gold are both going to be 'meaningful'. Probably the last decline for gold, and the first 'real' one for stocks. Will that be today, tomorrow, next week or next month? It'll simply be when it happens. When stocks fail to capitalize on what is deemed to be strong internals and too much energy goes into just sustaining them, I think distribution is being done by the big boys and it is watch out below time soon. I wouldn't want any part in owning them at this time!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 09:26)

Eldorado--Can't help wondering how Microsoft will do today. Pretty stupid thing to say your company's stock is "leery". Especially if you are one of the honchos!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 09:29)
GOLD LEASE RATES: Research & Commentary
Auric & Disney: There are numerous postings of research and commentary at at GOLD-EAGLE on Gold Lease Rates - noteably by Butler, Dines & Cole. You might also peruse the other studies hot-wied at the bottom of each particular analysis noted here. They often contain additional related material. Here are the direct URLs to this matterial:

Lease Rates

(Mon Sep 15 1997 09:37)
Ted and the good Senator Blutarsky ( do you still reside in the State of Intoxication? ) : I agree with Donald, crashes start by simply falling from their own over-valued weight. Expect the crash to start today, tomorrow, or Wednesday at the latest. Once started, it will last for another 2 to 3 weeks.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 09:44)
Your 9:26, re: microsoft.
Could it be a defensive mechanism? In the event of a crash, investors will look for scapegoats. The CFO of Microsoft could always point out that he warned the Microsoft owners of unrealistic valuations. Just an idea.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 09:54)
Monday September 15 8:41 AM EDT

NY precious metals expected to open lower

NEW YORK, Sept 15 ( Reuter ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures were called to open lower Monday as gold lease rates continued to skyrocket over the weekend, prompting some to expect a fresh round of selling.

COMEX December gold was called down $1 from Friday's finish of $326.20 an ounce after trading from $324.90 to $326.20 on ACCESS.

Implied one-month lease rates were 3.80 percent, up from 3.57 percent late Friday, while the one-year rate was 2.91 percent. Dealers attributed the increase to borrowing against fresh speculative short positions.

A variety of theories have turned up over the sudden increase in lease rates, ranging from borrowing by Australian producers ahead of forward sales to panic borrowing to cover short positions. Others suggest that funds and small speculators are borrowing in advance of new shorts.

Technical support is seen at $324.50 an ounce in the December contract.

Non-speculative shorts continued to amass in the gold market, according to last Friday's commitment of traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Some traders feel this leaves the market vulnerable to short-covering rally if support survives another test.

In the bullion market, the spot gold price was $323.00/50 an ounce, compared with the $323.15 an ounce, and the New York close, which was $323.90/4.40.

COMEX gold warehouse stocks were unchanged at 728,832 ounces in Friday's report, while COMEX silver stocks declined 571,571 ounces to 158,978,472 ounces.

COMEX December silver was called to open down 0.5 cent from Friday's close of $4.775 an ounce.

NYMEX October platinum was called to open down $1.00 to $2.00 lower from the previous day's close pf $427.70 an ounce, while NYMEX December palladium were both seen opening down $1.00 an ounce from the previous day's close of $193.40 an ounce.

Senator Blutarsky
(Mon Sep 15 1997 09:59)
The Good And Honorable

Steve Puetz: Good morning, and congratulations to the Boilermakers. Still think we'll get below 4500 on the DJIA before Oct. 31? I am reviewing my charities.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 10:22)
One of my favorite views of Aussie.

If you right-click with the mouse on the globe and save as wallpaper it makes
a beaut background and impresses friends and family.

Currently have that lovely 'Linda' picture there,
but sometimes a nice nugget or some bars like Nick@Canberra's.

Also a good viewer for the weather in Asia.
Lots of cyclones and typhoons, but no hurricanes.
The spiritual cleansing of Hong Kong was impressive.
( 100inches in 4 days after handover )

And volatilty chart at
Type in $vix.x
And view daily then weekly. The spike in April is an error.

John Disney
(Mon Sep 15 1997 10:48)
for Auric and Vronsky
Thanks very much for your help. For Auric - I know
the Kitco data on lease and forward rates. Thats where
I noticed that when one goes up the other comes down
( almost point for point ) - Problem is I dont understand
why !!
For Vronsky - a champion as always - the articles
clear me up on the white metals - the sum of lease plus
forward rates MUST exceed the prime rate.
For both - Could you follow my example on FINANCING
via gold lease/sale/cover by forward purchase. If this
is right ( I hope it isnt ) and the sum of the two rates is
below prime , then a additional factor could be in the mix,
short sales, producer selling, and sales for financing
replacing large more expensive bank loans.
Also why is the sum of the lease Plus forward rate
the same for both gold AND silver

George Cole
(Mon Sep 15 1997 10:50)
market action
ELDORADO; You have the right take on the markets. Stocks will rally further short-term, but a big hit ( though not a crash ) is getting close. Gold bears still growling loudly and this shakeout ain't over yet. But a MAJOR turnaround is a good bet once we trough.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 10:53)
John Disney

I will defer to Vronsky on these questions!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 10:55)
@ Donald
Donald, thanks for the reply. Now is there any way to figure what percentage of our dollar is "unofically" backed by gold? or is it so miniscule that we need'nt bother.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 10:56)
@ Donald
Donald, thanks for the reply. Now is there any way to figure what percentage of our dollar is "unofically" backed by gold? or is it so miniscule that we need'nt bother.

Friend of Kitco
(Mon Sep 15 1997 11:02)
An excellent night of posts
The Y2K problem is being exposed here at Kitco, despite the disinformation by hepcats chief new handle ( he is also operating here at Kitco under many other handles ) attempt to discredit the exploration of this important question. Thank you Miro, Programmer, BW, Shek, Speed, Donald and others presenting the facts. Some of the disinformation here on Kitco can be be detected by asking yourself the question "Why is this poster discrediting/insulting a previous poster of what appears to be facts? The Y2K question deserves an honest exploration. Its relevance to gold is very large. LGB is probably finished here at Kitco but hepcat remains. Take care.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 11:03)
John Disney: REF "Also why is the sum of the lease Plus forward rate the same for both gold AND silver." Wish I knew the answer to that one. Besides yourself, the only other Resident Expert on Precious Metals Lease Rates is Ted Butler. Perhaps he might be able to shed some light on the subject.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 11:08)
Funds attack gold
...they're trying hard...but so far the line is being held reasonably well ( down $2 ) in lieu...A lot of energy is being spend....who's going to win? The 'shorts' appear desperate...a lot of 'money' is being it an offensive or defensive move...the risk/reward indicate a defensive move by the 'shorts'
The trend has changed.
NEW YORK, Sept 15 ( Reuter ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metal futures were lower early Monday on fresh selling by
hedge funds in the gold market on talk of central bank sales in Europe and higher lease rates, dealers said.

Speculation over future central bank sales by a European banks, first reported in the Financial Times, prompted some of the
selling, according to James Quinn, commodity commentator with A.G. Edwards.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 11:12)
@the scene
George S Cole -- It would seem to me that any break of the current support levels in the S&P is going to be 'traumatic' for the bulls! It will drop like a rock. Maybe faster! There will be NO time to be getting out. It'll be 3 strikes and yer out! On the upside, should the old highs somehow get taken out, which I currently doubt, then it all gets a new look, and the bull would still be the major force for another while.

I would at least like to see gold retest 320 Dec. Then see how it reacts. Perhaps it can be coaxed lower for a real washout! That would be the most bullish scenaio for it I can imagine! A BIG fast spike down and recovery!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 11:18)
AURIC appreciate all the effort, but I had emailed them and told them about the problem, and it seems it's solved.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 11:25)
@ hello group, I'm a bit green
I am new here, and I have what maybe a silly question, but why is gold valuable ?, I mean it's just metal that don't rust, right ?, why not back financial power with biotechnology or something really valuable ?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 11:26)

LIBOR ( london interbank overnight rate ) = Lease Rate + Forward Rate.

This is a result of a pure arbitrage.


If gold sells for 300.00 per ounce and the 1 month lease rate is 4% then it costs $1.00 to borrow an ounce of gold for one month ( 300 * .04 / 12 ) . If the borrowing rate for one month money ( LIBOR ) is 6%. Then it costs $1.50 to borrow $300.00 dollars for one month ( 300 * .06 / 12 ) . In order for there not to exist a pure arbitrage there must be a balance between the forward price of gold, the lease rate of gold and the lease rate of money.

Forward Price = Spot Price + Borrowing Cost of Money - Borrowing Cost of Gold.

$300.50 = $300.00 + $1.50 - $1.00.

The forward rate is just the ( forward price - spot price ) / spot price ) annualized or 2% in this case. .02 = ( ( 300.50 - 300.00 ) / 300.00 ) * 12.

As a result of the arbitrage, when lease rates ( the cost to borrow gold ) exceed the cost to borrow money, then the forward price goes into backwardization. This means it is cheaper to buy forward gold than spot gold and there is no incentive for mines to sell forward because they get less money than selling at spot. This is a very important point.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 11:28)
Microsoft says stocks too high, Buffett moving out of stocks to bonds, DMark gaining strength, and Stocks going UP-------what's wrong with this picture?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 11:31)
Why are the news reports refering to gold being in contango? When I look at the futures prices, every thing is normal lower to higher prices?

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Mon Sep 15 1997 11:34)
NOW READY FOR PRIME TIME DEP'T: To enjoy our discussion group from the comfort of your own hands-free virtual online quote environment try this URL: If you're having difficulties there send a description of the problem to and be sure to mention your browser and its version number.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 11:44)
The Dow Jones utilities average is currently trading 1.48 higher at 241.08 after a big day up friday ( a gain of almost 400 points ) . These are impressive gains. Should the 240 level hold Mike Sheller may be correct in that we may see new highs in stocks. Or it may mean that a lot of the money flowing into this country from abroad is very conserative.

These are wild times, money is flowing hard and fast. Gold sits and waits, she has seen many of these mating dances in her 6000 year life. Always the males return, the wait is not long for her.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 11:45)
@comeon, saysomething to me
I think stocks are high now, not because companies are so good, but because the fund companies have brainwashed everybody and used fear tactics to tell them they will be poor when they get old if they don't invest in stocks - comments ?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 11:52)
I am using Netscape Communicator and it works fine. I really like the frames. Lots of info.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 12:00)
Stupid Buyers
NOMERCY: I wonder who are the stupid buyers of gold stocks such as NEM ( no change ) when gold is down and even more so who are the stupid buyers supporting gold at this level when everyone knows CBs are out there selling, gold certainly is going substantially lower according to most if not all analysts, most funds are betting gold is going lower, there is no reason given in the media for gold to rise, and there is an evil consipiracy that can always keep gold from rising.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 12:00)
JollyMiller: You will find a very comprehensive explanation by clicking:

(Mon Sep 15 1997 12:01)

Bart--This is my last post before taking the plunge into the new and improved Kitco. AWAY!!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 12:05)
If you look at this chart you can see where Linda's been.

And follow its current position.

And this site will show how devious they can be. This one went right over our roof. But with little damage.

And back to the subject this site would have to be one of the best for charts especially intraday.
Checkout 'INDU' or 'XAU.X' or whatever, all live - minute by minute.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 12:10)
BADGER: The latest treasury figure for currency in circulation is $460,098,000,000. It is backed by 263,390,000 ounces of gold. That is .0005724 ounces of gold per dollar of currency. Be sure you make the important distinction between cash dollars and credit dollars here.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 12:11)
Bart is KING!
Get down with your bad self, Bart! I like all the knew info. I knew you were working on the 'new and improved'. I'm glad I have the 17". Thanks SO much. Step aside Earl and George... you're just a couple of minor Dukes now ;- ) like that don't you Auric? :- )
EB $$

(Mon Sep 15 1997 12:15)

I clicked on the new Kitco site and I couldn't get through--So... How is Microsoft doing today? How about Fidelity Magellan Fund?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 12:21)
Is there more silver or gold ?
I read the web site on why gold is valuable, but why not lead or silver or tungsten or something else. Is it that gold is much more scarce, or does it just look nicer. I have a difficult time paying 325 bucks for a mere ounce of metal, that's about 65 delicious pecan pies, hmmmmmm.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 12:22)
impeach clinton website
Please view the impeach clinton website at

and cast your vote and SPREAD THE WORD.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 12:24)
Mornin' all...
Ted - Bright and sunny...waiting for the rain...and Don't get rid of those certificates just yet you ole hippy ;- )

Nick&Nick - Hey mates! Nick, i mean Nick... thanks for the wallpaper, everyone IS impressed! Seems like we're getting more Aussies than Yanks...there goes the neighborhood ;-0 Doh!

Donald - you're info plethora is ALL good. I am making some GOOOOOD $$$$ on the Mark...get set...GO!

Yen - I knew you were a good buy when you started tanking last week... :-$

Linda - Bring it on!!

RJ - pulled out full in Plat this am @ 428.5...oh my! $$$$$$$!!!! I am sidelined for the moment. work...


oj -'re hurting my feelings...stop it! are you all drinking your juice??

(Mon Sep 15 1997 12:25)
I AM PUTLESS NO MORE! Thanks guys. Now..........?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 12:35)
Re: Donald, our worthless currency
Donald: It is my belief that the 263 million ounces of gold our treasury supposedly contains ( no audits done in our lives ) does not actually back our currency. Am I incorrect here? Keep up your excellent posts.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 12:38)
U.S. CURRENCY Vis-a-Vis GOLD Backing
Donald & BADGER: If memory serves, it was a number of years ago that Congressional Law requireded outstanding US currency to have a minimum gold backing of 25%. Were Congress to require this conservative monetary measure again, the existing US gold stash would demand A VALUE OF $630 PER OUNCE. HEY, If F.R.D. did it in 1934, why can't President Clinton raise the GOLD PRICE by decree. Another very obvious windfall benefit would make the US debt easier to sell to foreigners - because there is substantial gold backing. This might produce the desired effect of capping interest rates. WHAT DO YOU THINK??????????

Considering the yearly value of gold since its $850 peak in January 1980 AND the Irrational Exuberance in financial assets of late, this is quite feasible. And it certainly would allow the greenback to reign supreme as the world's reserve currency for a couple of decades longer.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 12:43)
The US Money supply surged! M1 +10 billion; M2 +18 billion; and the broadest indicator, M3 +19.5 billion! VERY RELEVANT IS FOLLOWING Guest Guru Milhouse analysis:

(Mon Sep 15 1997 12:48)
My daughter goes to Purdue, my brother in law is an alumni of Penn State.
He wants to bet me on their game. What are my odds of winning?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 12:54)
what is clinton guilty of ?
I am from Toronto and don't follow US politics, what is clinton guilty of ? I heard he was a womanizer, but that's something I think he's proud of !. Can I find the details in the National Review with William F. Buckley, or the National Enquirer, with Steve Cox ???

(Mon Sep 15 1997 12:58)
JollyMiller: You have opened up a major can of worms. Stay tuned for things you never dreamed of.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 13:02)
APH: Never bet against Joe Paterno. Of course, I'm prejudiced, he was coaching when I went to school there in early '70.... & he still wins a lot more than he loses!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 13:10)
@Gold Stocks Question
There is a lot of expertise here in the area of Gold stocks. Question, has anyone devised a gold stock strategy similar to the "Flying Dogs of the DOW" strategy?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 13:21)
@Metal Stockpile sale
U.S. Stockpile sells 500,000 lbs nickel to BenMet

NEW YORK, Sept 15 ( Reuter ) - U.S. Defense National Stockpile Center said Monday it sold 500,000 lbs of nickel to BenMet
at $2.9730 a lb on Thursday.

The London Metal Exchange cash price was $2.9937 at Thursday evening eveluation.

Nickel will be offered for sale on the second Thursday of each month. The next bid opening is Oct 9.

This AM story causes one to wonder. what OTHER strategic stockpiles will the U.S. be selling? It seems we already accessed some of ourstrategic Platinum for the new Platinum coin program, rather than purchasing from the open market. Could this be yet another source of price depression in the metals? At least the strategic metals?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 13:22)
Vronsky is right !
Vronsky is correct, if gold is valued higher, than the yankee stockpile is worth more, the yankee dollar becomes stronger, yankee debt is stronger, and the markets go down. Just what greenspan wants ( in addition to a nice bolw of matzo-ball soup ) hmmmmmm.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 13:25)
Hogg was right. how about conspiracy to commit murder, drug
trafficing and use, sexual harrassment, obstruction of justice,
falsifying official documents, for starters. stay tuned.
read the site.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 13:27)
LGB Please Explain
Hey LGB !! What do nickel, copper and zinc have to do with gold, are they substitutes for gold ? 500,000 lbs @ 3 bucks a pound is only a million and a half bucks, that's chump change man !, what's the big deal !! Is it taboo for the US gov't to sell ?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 13:30)
Worldwide depressions:
To get a picture of what the world will be contending with soon look east to Japan. Once an economic powerhouse its real gnp fell in the second quarter 1997 at a 11.2% annual rate! Good articles on pages A22 and A23 of todays wsj. A quote from the second article to me tells the story, "... damage from the bursting financial bubbles is longer lasting and more serious than previously believed ... " The bursting bubble, this in my opinion is the main reason for the 1930s. The bursting financial bubble, the largest financial ( as well as other simultaneous bubbles ) bubble the world has ever seen exists in a world near you today.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 13:33)
To the General Lee...Heeee Ha !!
Ok so clinton is a bit of a sex maniac and took drugs and maybe sold some in college, so what!, that tells me he's a real guy. Falsifying documents, I bet all top gov't people do that all the time, just too much red tape, cut gotta cut through ! Tell me about the Murder, that's scary

(Mon Sep 15 1997 13:37)
Falling leaves, falling Presidents, falling Dollar!, fall in profits,

DOW you da next fall guy.

Ahh that sweet aroma of burning leaves and others cash.

John Disney
(Mon Sep 15 1997 13:38)
For DA, Auric, Vronsky, et al.
Thanks for your 11.26 on rates - fascinating!
But can you check an example on one-year gold lease and
forward rates. You use overnight London interbank in your
example. What would you use for one year deals?? The
UK prime rate is 7 per cent. I cant check the formula
you provided on a one year basis - lease ( 3.05 ) plus
forward ( 3.05 ) = 6.1 % - that seems to be low to me
relative to UK prime - is one year LIBOR at 6.1 ??
Also, what drives what - is lease rate the driving
element and forward rate fills the slack to equal some
balance with a applicable interest rate??

(Mon Sep 15 1997 13:38)
bw, you are right !!
I think the financial bubble burst will hurt little people, taking their 50 or 100 thousand bucks, all their savings. I think all mutual fund people should be on trial for mass deception and brainwashing, leave clinton alone, he just wants to go to the mustang ranch !

(Mon Sep 15 1997 13:41)
'Financial Planners' should be strug up too !
While I am hogging the forum, I think so called financial planners and their ilk should also be arrested for misleading retirees and boomers into thinking they will be poor and destitute if they don't spend all their money on stocks. Con-artists the lot of em'

(Mon Sep 15 1997 13:44)
to Jolly
Sounds like you are a Clinton fan. Anyway, there have been
numerous reports/articles written about over 20 deaths which
have been linked to the Clintons, including Vince Foster,
state troopers and their families who knew too much about
shenanigans, etc. If you really want to know more, explore.
One good report on this was written by the editor of the
Wall Street Underground, his name escapes me at the moment.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 13:45)
@RJ,03:21, all Y2K, El Nino, $50K challenge
RJ the weekend is over and it's a serious investing day once again. Especially since we have an eclipse coming shortly! Consequently, I'm not interested in continued personal exchanges a la your 03:21, other than to offer you a wager from this "small player". I have $50,000 here that says I'm not HepCat, associated with Hepcat, nor do I have any connection to "HepCat". I'll be happy to arrange verifiable means for completing the terms of this wager if you are man enough to back your publicly made strong statements by putting your money where your mouth has frequently been. I'll even post my e mail address once you publicy accept the challenge RJ ( even though I'm not a merchant here trying to roust up business like SOME folks ) .

As to your continuing diatribes full of insults, innuendos, and slanderous remarks, I don't think I've stooped to that level in any of my posts to date, not to that degree. I limit it to 1 or 2 adjectives at best, not a dozen. And I tend to focus on "Professionals" , peddlers like yourself. not individuals who are voicing opinions.

For clarification to those who havn't followed the controversies. I'm not posting to stir up anything ( other than adding a little balance and reality check here ) . I don't automatically take a "Contrary to the COntrarian" view, as any serious reader would long ago have realized.

El Nino for example, my "opinoin" is based on experience. We didn't have West coast hurricanes in the last 5 El Nino's, our weather patterns change going into winter, the high pressure system moves south, Jet stream drops from the North. El Nino causes flooding in California due to the JS moving south for the winter, instead of it's usual pattern North of CA.

On Y2K, never have I said it wasn't a big problem. Only that it's overhyped, will not affect the financial markets, and will be a mere blip on the screen by the time it arrives, due to the efforts of Miro and thousands of other technical experts who have 27 months more to put the appropriate fixes in place.

It seems quite apparent that RJ, "Friend of Kitco" "Frequent Poster" and others are the ones who resort to the truly personal name calling attacks on this BB. My comments tend to be satirical, "devils advocate", often opposed to the conventional "contrarian" politically correct Kitco views. Nevertheless, other than being hypercritical of certain Newsletter peddlers who recoomend Put options based on celestial bodies, you won't find overt criticism of individuals from me, unless it's in defensive posture.

Furthermore, I have never suggested anyone else's views should be censored, squelched, barred, etc. Nor have I ever made long lists of personally insulting comments about an individual investor, a la our friend RJ. Me thinks you doth protest too much RJ. However, if you have Heuvos or Cajones, maybe you'll put your money where your mouth is and take my $50K challenge eh ? Or was it just a spur of the moment opnion based on little or no rationale??

(Mon Sep 15 1997 13:48)
To any body who cares: It looks to me as if the jolly miller is another of the multiple personalities of your inhouse schizoid. Any response to him will undoubtedly engender more of the same. And, most likely, more
of the near-clones ( personalities ) . I, for one, will not read his tripe or respond to it!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 14:18)
Arch Crawford is going to be on CNBC 3 pm eastern.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 14:20)
to jolly about death links
Call up

for info linking Clinton to Ron Brown and other deaths.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 14:22)
@Getting Absurd
SNOOP: You got it right. Left alone he would disappear. Things are getting out of control.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 14:25)
@Puetz, All
Puetz re your 09:37. I take your "crash" in next 2 days as a contrary indicator. Tempted to move 5% of my MMF back into Fbgrx. Besides, another highly bullish indicator is that the DOW crossed the 7777.7 mark a few minutes ago!! Isn't that stronger than the "eclipse" ??

Snoop. It ain't me, and I hope I'm not the "Schizoid" to which you, RJ, and all the other genuises refer. Bart can verify that I am not any of these "alter ego's" out there. He has my permission...

Now since I AM feeling slightly neurotic today, let me repeat again, I appreciate this site greatly, ( Thanks Bart ) , lot's of excellent wisdom, information, and posts to be found here, and I take "contrary to the contrarian" views at times to both challenge the "Pro's", see their beliefs defined clrealy, and try and understand if there is any genuine rationale why they feel their analysis is superior to more "conventional" analysts who preach Equities as best long term holdings.

Remember that old investment comparison between $1,000 invested 100 years ago and where it would be today in Stocks, vs. Bonds, vs, Gold, vs. Passbook savings, vs. Real Estate, etc. Stocks outperformed all the others by mutiples of 100's of percent. Boring but true. Why is it that the plain simple facts, posted by a simpleton like Moi, come under withering attack by "superior" investment minds who have been consistently wrong? OK, nuff for now, back to rocket science....I know you'll miss me, take your cheap shots RJ, I won't be here to respond.....

(Mon Sep 15 1997 14:26)
The last hour of trading should be interesting. Microsoft down 4.5 %

(Mon Sep 15 1997 14:41)
Schizoid hunters relax. the Jolly Miller is an old and reasonably well know tavern in "Hoggs Hollow" in the north part of Toronto. So unless 3-2-5 has moved north from the Carolinas its quite possible some new poster who knows nothing about the various foreign themes here has found his way into this jolly group. Why not educate before banning this time?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 14:43)
To other beleaguered followers of BGO and AZS: Canada NewsWire has this from the company:

(Mon Sep 15 1997 15:00)
I ,for one, have always enjoyed the exchange of ideas here at Kitco and
whether the views of various posters such as Peutz,George Cole,Panda,R.J.
and many others are "right" or "wrong" I certainly respect them for
representing their opinions sincerely and in the genuine spirit of
What a waste that some posters do not share the same spirit.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 15:16)
GRAND LBMA EXPOS: A Collective-Mind Analysis - Compiled by Red Baron -- PART 2 (September 15, 1997)
London Bullion Marketing Association ( LBMA ) is best described as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Daily gold trading nearly 50% yearly production. Who & Why?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 15:16)
LGB, I could not talk about it yesterday, but it's out ;-)
LGB, yesterday you've been saying that NASA does not have any serious
problem with Y2K - you know it by talking to your experts. Well, the cat
is out so today I can publicly point to something I knew yesterday but
could not mention it. Look at
the latest assessment and report from OMB ( and believe me they are
"soft" ) gave NASA bad grades for progress in fixing Y2K problem.
Four other agencies can not spend any new money on new systems before
they fix Y2K problem. Rightly so - from personal experiences in some of
these agencies I know that the situation is bad.
Donald, there is you answer how will Y2K impact spending on new

(Mon Sep 15 1997 15:30)
Up, up. Down, down, down. Up, up. Down, down, DOWN. UP, up..
Just a bit'o'struggle left before Mr Bear has his lunch ( but not ours! ) . If he's a real hog he'll chow down. If he's on a crash diet, he may take a while to eat this one. Good bye, Mr Bull. Hello, Mr Bear. What an aweful mess you'll leave us with. Makes us want to sell our house/land in the real-estate surge before you decide to eat Mr Piggy and his house as well.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 15:31)
Up, up. Down, down, down. Up, up. Down, down, DOWN. UP, up..
Just a bit'o'struggle left before Mr Bear has his lunch ( but not ours! ) . If he's a real hog he'll chow down. If he's on a crash diet, he may take a while to eat this one. Good bye, Mr Bull. Hello, Mr Bear. What an aweful mess you'll leave us with. Makes us want to sell our house/land in the real-estate surge before you decide to eat Mr Piggy and his house as well.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 15:36)
Boy, you guys are sensitive !
Hey Selby, whats all this talk about banning me, what'd I say ?, what'd I say ? are ya sore cause I live in Hoggs Hollow and you don't ?. Gosh, talk about sensitive !!!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 15:40)
To the General, ya got me wrong !
General, I'm not a big clinton fan, in fact, I think I saw his head revolving around on top of a Scotts Chicken Villa. Murder is very bad, and way ya look it, so I will check out the sites. These are serious charges. The other stuff is minor, drugs, sex, big deal, who has'nt.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 15:46)
I just joined today !
I just joined up today and you guys wanna ban me already. Is Clinton a real sore spot ? I thought this forum was about gold, which I just figured out is more valuable than pecan pie, although far less useful.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 15:57)
Anyone: and EB

OK guys, I was out foolin' around on the 4x4 and missed dear old Arch on CNBC.....Can someone bring me up to speed on his speil please....

EB: Thank God you forgot that I was the first King and didn't dethrone me HAHAHA ! Bart and Me ... Now that's a team eh! ( :- ) )


(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:05)
@ Donald/ Vronsky/ novice
Hey Donald, that true?,was our gold standard requirement JUST 25% when it was in effect at the last ( a la Nixon years ) , and had it changed from some previous requirements circa the invention of paper and the shell game which came with it? Vronsky; fat chance. The gov. can't let well enough alone?,what's wrong with you! they would tinker with the idea of even backing some debt along with those cash dollars useing a formula only they could understand!,good idea though cause it would through some cold water on a very overheated market./novice, some of your BGO weakness is from a convertible coming due and the reciepients selling like mad as they had a profit in hand in a very weak sector;GOLD!!!

Friend of Kitco
(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:06)
Sincere ideas?
Greg: The problem we are having here at Kitco is that not all the posts are sincere. A sincere post can be factually correct or incorrect. Disinformation in a post is a lie pretending to be something else. Much of this disinformation in the recent past has been simple incivility, disrespecting other posters. This serves the purpose of burning bandwith and causing pointless dissentinon. Many other methods are currently being used. The point is to make this site ineffective as a proponent of gold, which in itself tells us something.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:07)
Right Wing Progressive Or is it Left wing Progressive @ The people get screwed.
Monday, September 15, 1997

Spending Norway's wealth at heart of uncertain election

OSLO, Norway ( AP ) - Oil revenue gushes into Norway's coffers so fast that the government sets aside about $22 million of it a day - perhaps carrying thrift a bit too far for many voters in today's national elections.

- discontent mined by the *far-right Party of Progress.* About 300,000 people are on waiting lists for hospital treatment and many Norwegians say the elderly need more aid and schools need more funding.
The *Progressives* want to dip into the oil surplus for money to address these concerns. Labor says spending more money now would overstimulate the economy, increasing the danger of a paralyzing **crash.***

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:09)
APH: as a Purdue grad I must recommend that you accept the bet but only with an appropriate number of points ( a whole lot! ) . One game does not make a season. Purdue had a lot of phsycological factors in its favor, only one of which was beating their former coach who now is Notre Dame's offensive coordinator. I'm sure their are many on campus expecting to go to the Rose Bowl now! I won't be holding my breath.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:10)
IT'S POLL TIME, I want everybody here to recommend to me a junior gold stock, cause they are a good buy now. Like Charles Bronson said: I wan't names. Like the JollyMiller says: I want symbols, lotsa symbols, just juniors, mind you.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:16)
Russia C Bank to purchase 20T gold.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:21)
Come on now, loosen those lips
Lets have your gold stock picks men/women ( is there a woman in this group ? ) Yeah, any women in the group ???, it sound pretty male in here, insecurity flourishing, ( Selby do you still want to ban me ? ) But I need some stock picks, the juniors, come on now, show your golden accumen !

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:23)
BADGER, VRONSKY: The last "official" U.S. price of gold was $42.22 per oz set in February, 1973. When the price kept moving up it was abandoned in November, 1973. The gold still held on the books is at the $42.22 price, the last official price. You may recall recent news about Germany and the howl that was caused when Kohl wanted to reprice German gold from a fixed to market price. They are in the same situation as the U.S.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:23)
Come on now, loosen those lips
Lets have your gold stock picks men/women ( is there a woman in this group ? ) Yeah, any women in the group ???, it sound pretty male in here, insecurity flourishing, ( Selby do you still want to ban me ? ) But I need some stock picks, the juniors, come on now, show your golden accumen !

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:24)
JollyMiller: Take a dip in the Don and cool out Mr. Miller. I was suggesting that you not get banned for asking such questions as whats wrong with Clinton and comparing gold to pie. If you hang around a little while you will see the path you are/were on. I prefer to live in the upper Village to H Hollow.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:24)
MAI = MAI @ The International Bankers, It will be over for GOLD.
****Modern Artificial Economic Control, EH!*******
Gold will be done for, to be sure. What will stop these Bankers.??

September 15, 1997
Trade states mull opening up financial services

GENEVA ( Reuter ) - A total of 17 trading powers have put new offers on the table in negotiations for a new pact on liberalizing the global financial services industry, trade officials said Monday.

Since they began in April, improved offers have been proposed by the EU and the United States, as well as by Japan, Canada, Switzerland, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Hong Kong, Venezuela, Bahrain, Norway, Hungary, Slovakia, Turkey and Macao.

But there has been no sign of similar moves from Southeast Asian countries like Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore -- all hit by recent currency turmoil -- or from key Latin American nations like Brazil and Argentina.

"The current problems certainly don't make it easier for the Asians," said one senior major-power trade envoy in Geneva, "but at the same time I don't think there are grounds for being too pessimistic at this stage."

However, economists at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development ( UNCTAD ) , an agency created to promote the interests of developing countries, say they favor a gradual approach rather than a "big bang."

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:26)
Friend of Kitco;Well put!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:28)
APH: Go with the sentimental favorite -- Purdue. The heck with the odds. Purdue's hot now!!! ( Disclaimer: If Purdue loses, I disavow any knowledge of this posting. ) By the way, the Chicago BEARS are my favorite sports team.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:36)
Putless: Glad to see you are prepared for the next 3 weeks.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:38)
CB gold
Donald: Why is gold carried on the books @ $42.50, wouldn't it make more sense to raise that to market value?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:41)
MIRO: Thanks for yours at 15:16. The computer equipment stocks have not yet taken that news into account. Microsoft was down today but not on Y2K news. Compaq and Dell still near their highs. Compaq especially is a big government supplier, and the govt. ain't gonna be buyin'.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:41)
Re: General, Ron Brown
General: Thanks for the information on the "timely" death of a potential clinton problem. At the time of his death Ron Brown was under active investigation by at least thirteen groups in dc. As far as bill is concerned he went to his eternal reward just in time. Funny how this happens for bill so frequently.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:45)
Russia to buy gold
MOSCOW, Sept 15 ( Reuter ) - Russia's central bank plans to buy 20 tonnes of gold from commercial banks in 1997, having
purchased 12 tonnes up to the end of August, said Sergei Kyshtymov, the bank's deputy director of foreign operations, on

``We plan to buy 20 tonnes ( from commercial banks ) by the end of this year, and bought 12 tonnes during the first eight
months,'' he told Reuters.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:45)
Gold at $42.50 on the books
Lurker...Donald. The reason U.S. gold is valued at a book value of $42.50/oz. is becasue that remains the official price ( actually $42.22/oz. ) set by the U.S. Government, under Nixon in 1973...Read the History of Gold by Vronsky on Gold Eagle.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:45)
@Skool, again!!
To Lurker's 16:16- What have I missed?, Russia just sold a good chunk the other day as they had'nt any money to pay their miners, now was that a specific company selling or a CB on their ( the government's ) behalf in the event the mines are still state owned? Anyone know?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:49)
Selby, the schizoid...youse guys don't like this LGB guy !, I read his posts, and he sounds cool, yeah, I dig'em. LGB, I will also take your 50 grand challenge, a set of tennis, arm wrestling, spitting contest ?? what does this have to do with gold ?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:54)
LURKER: I hadn't thought about that a lot but my initial reaction is no. As someone said here the other day about nickel and dime law changes, leaving it at the lower price may only have psychological impact but it is there to remind you how much you screwed up. If you keep changing the benchmark it fades from memory. After a while you don't even have a benchmark anymore. You just keep printing paper with abandon.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 16:54)
Big Bang
6pak...your post re: UNCTAD preferring a more measured approach to inclusion of the smaller players into a global MAI vs. a "big bang" is fact, the use of the word "BIG BANG" is interesting. I propose it is exactly a "Big Bang" which they desire in the "Creation" of a new global monetary union and global monetary unit.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:03)
A comparison for goldbugs
gold has great ductility, so does copper. Gold is rare, Technium is more rare. Gold looks nice, so does silver. Gold is heavy, so is lead. You guys getting the picture yet ???? Why should gold be so valuable ? If it's only valuable to a few, that's not valuable.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:04)
S. Roach (Morgan Stanley)
Re: Policy Blunders and Bond Bubbles ( Sept15 )
Where this all ends is anyone's guess. But it's the global bond bubble that seems most at risk, in my
view. The weakest link in the chain continues to be in Japan. And that economy's implosion in 2Q97
suggests that something big is about to give. As tension mounts, I fear the rest of the world's liquidity-
driven financial markets may have to pay a surprisingly steep price.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:06)
The nuclear war senario
Gold is supposed to be valuable during wars..Scene one: after a nuclear holocaust I emerge from by bunker to meet a man with bread. I offer him gold as payment. He laughs uncontrolably and dies, maybe gold is the ultimate joke !

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:11)
NoMercy I disagree with fundamentums
No mercy, the end of paper currency...everybody sits at home and worships their chunk of gold, praising it reliability as a doorstop. The new form of entertainment is to sit at home with the family and watch as a block of gold resists rusting. Spellbinding !

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:17)
Brazil stocks close down 3.78% on currency fears. ( This story uses a noon time figure but the reasons are valid )

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:18)
Raising the Official Price of Gold
Donald, Lurker, Vronsky, Badger: Your threads re: the official book value of gold in the U.S. store and Kohl's trial balloon to raise the value of Germany' gold stores is worth extended debate. In Vronksy's paper "History of Gold" he notes that the raising of the price of gold in 1971 under the Smithsonian Agrement from US $35 to $38 was heralded as "the most significant monetary agreement in the history of the world." In the pre-1973 days, the price of gold reflected the confidence in the U.S. dollar...raising the price meant there was pressure of non-confidence in the U.S. dollar ( at that time this seemed to make sense with what was happening with OPEC and all re:oil embargo ) . The US actually lost control of the gold price ( having "fixed" the price to the U.S. dollar since 1792 ) in June of 1973 after raising the price to $42.22...from thence forth it has been afloat exploding to heights of $850 in January 1980.

It is curious that since that June of 1973 the official book value of US gold has never been changed. While there has been no official "fix" of the price of gold since by CBs, the London Bullion Market "fixes" or sets the price of gold every day ( a small group of merchant banking houses, including N.M. Rothschild and Sons ) and whereby over 30 million ounces of gold is traded ( see The Red Baron's article The Grand LBMA Expose - Part 2 ) every day ( reported by Reuters July 14, 1997 ) ...a daily volume TWO TIMES the annual production of South Africa.

While the price of gold hasn't been "fixed" by the U.S. since 1973 ( its fixed by merchant banking interests in London, Zurich and New York ) , does a Clinton or Kohl raising of the "official" price of gold signal a potential crisis in confidence in their respective fiat currencies? If so, would gold do a Phoenix bird on us again?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:19)
Selby, forget stocks, I want resturants
Selby, forget stock picks, what resturants do you like around the Eglington/St.Clair area ? I used to go to Fran's alot, but I think it's gross now, they use too much grease. I like Yitz's and Monte Carlo Pizza, they are my picks !!!!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:21)
Microsoft the beginning...
...Bell whether stock slammed 7 1/4 on over 16 million shares ( support of $134 broken to downside. More to come )

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:23)
Holocaust: never again?
A Holocaust museum opens today in NYC. Many ( including many groups of very polite Jews ) believe the best way to prevent future holocausts is for citizens to arm themselves. If you saw the film ( made in todays politically correct hollywood ) "Schindlers list" you would not have seen this, but Schindler himself provided firearms to many of his Jewish workers. With our next level of government, the un, proceeding at a frenetic pace to take our arms, one may ponder this.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:27)
ZARDOZ: I would like to discuss it as well because I am not sure what the impact would be. Setting the price to market value seems to say to me "OK all you wild credit junkies and spenders, we are going to let you get away with it this time..." It would seem to me that we would be re-booting the financial system without fixing the problems. First we must agree to fix the problems. Then we set the price of gold. I am still open on this, anxious to hear what others have to say.

The reason the official price is no longer important is due to the fact that the U.S. has no intention, as far as I know, of exchanging gold for dollars with foreign central banks. That is all the official price did from 1933 to 1973 anyway. When we exchanged with them it was important, now it is not.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:32)
bw - are you serious ?
bw, obviously you are not jewish. Good excuse to kill them, hey, they were armed !, we shot em, end of story. The only way to stop a genocide is to outlaw hateful material and dogma from lunatics. If we arm ourselves, we stoop to their level.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:34)
JollyMiller: Since you are new I feel compelled to re-post this regarding the value of gold. This is from Gurudas, Gem Elixirs ad Vibrational Healing, Vol. I: "Heindel said gold symbolizes the universal spirit in its perfect purity. Thus it purifies the dense physical body.... Gold is used extensively in anthroposophical medicine.... With gold a sense of responsibility and a conscience may develop. There may be a need for gold when there is ego conflict, frustration in life.... It may also be good for the manic person with megalomaniac tendencies as well as excitation or rage.... In homeopathy, gold is indicated for deep depression and suicidal tendencies. The person may lack self-confidence and feel very inferior or sexually oversensitive...." There is more. But surely you must see that gold has properties other than ductility, malleability, etc. that distinguish it from other metals.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:36)
..they get so excited to report a down of $1.70 in gold today...they stutter...most of the comments are inane...ludicrous.... doesn't look good for the paper boys...they're trying to maintain the 'posture' ...when everything around them is collapsing...
Re: A. Crawford mentioned the uptick in the Swiss mark rising against the US $ ( he referred to it equal to gold ) & he's still bullish ( the next few days, should tell the tale according to him ) .

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:38)
to Bart

PLEASE provide us with a squelch button. Since you are not
enforcing your posting rules, a squelch button seems the only

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:39)
@zardoz and all........
Thanks to Donald's research I figure our float of cash $'s are backed unoffically by about SIX ONE HUNDRETHS OF ONE RED CENT!,that figure as Donald reminds us is "debt notwithstanding". As for the Germans, they, ( Donald?,you read'in this? ) ,may actually have enough gold to slightly devalue the DM.

George Cole
(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:43)
market action
Another miserable day for gold and gold stocks. More of the same in store until reaction to news vastly improves and/or the gold stocks rally strongly on very heavy volume. Beware low or average volume rallies. They are traps for the unwary.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:44)
PB, you ought to be on an infomercial !
PB, loved that post, real cool about the mysticism of gold, the spirituality and cleansing effect on the soul, yeah I think I'll rub my gold watch on every square inch of me, oh yeah, don't stop !, really, I think I'll stick to vitamin C, that's better than smelling like pocket change. No hurt feelings now!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:46)
Jolly: I will pray for you.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:53)
Badger, Donald
Badger, Donald, others...Spot on Badger. My calculations suggest that at book value ( $42.22/oz ) U.S. gold reserves ( est. 263 million oz. ) equal $11.1 billion in gold which would equal 0.2% of U.S. debt of $5 tillion. At market value of say $325/oz. U.S. gold reserves would amount to only 1.7% backing of $5 trillion in debt. As Vronsky noted, in the old days the US. dollar was supported with a min. gold backing of 25%.

In my calculations, in order to achieve a 25% value backing of $5 tillion in US debt would price gold at $4,780/oz over market price of $325....that's a whopping 14.7X increase.

To Donald, if ever the confidence game ends in the US dollar, as it is so vulnerable too as it was in 1973 ( though it was saved through creating accounting of fiat monetary policy ) which may well come from a Japanese banking/insurance industry implosion ( from abroad not internal to the U.S. ) ...we could well see gold prices skyrocket to such heights, as others have suggested in the past.

My nagging question though is how those who make a business "fixing" the price of gold in London's Bullion Market factor into this possibility. Their either waiting gleefully for this chaos to ensue or are very much part of the "fixing" that is in the interest of all G7 countries in order to keep the confidence in the US dollar going. This is not at all clear as to what the game plan would be, in either case. We need more evidence. The fact, however, is those operating the gold fixing system in London's Bullion market are benefiting from 30 million ounces of gold trades every day...those profit margins must be STAGGERING!!!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:54)
@George Cole
Re volume...would you please relay an opinion as to what would constitute "good" volume. I have noticed volume has picked up in certain PM stocks recently...however, the volume is not as heavy as past rallies/sell offs based on the the last years volume charts. SSC has seen steady increase in volume ans same in price. Silver down slightly today but ssc up. Are you specifically referring to an across the board PM volume?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:55)
Zardoz @ 16:54
Big Bang, I doubt the International Bankers want such. My take suggests
these Central Bankers, and International Bankers, have a deal in hand.

The only balancing force that can stop these Bankers, are the people's
elected representatives. Now, considering the Hatchet job that has been
done on Elected Representatives, even that will not be available.

The next alternative is a down and dirty WAR. More death and destruction.
Why not, war is good for business, and the economy eh! Invent an enemy,
and the people will come, it worked wonders with the RED SCARE, you know
COMMIE's. What the hell is the death of 300,000 USofA citizens, or
20,000,000 Russian citizens. Or, 58,000 USofA citizens during Vietnam.
Or,1,000,000 Vietcong. USofA now trades with Vietnam.

Much of what we accept as free Market, and Democracy, is under attack.
No, once gone, much pain and suffering will be required to gain such
freedoms back. Yes, it is sad to watch the madness unfold.

Best to be gullible,and naive. Such is the life of Billions of people,
these people can not all be wrong, having such a life, eh! Majority Rule.

Paper money has been accepted as wealth, no complaints, gold, has been
transformed, via, vested interest's, to the economic scrap heap.

No one group, or organization, can be blamed, it is the wish of the people, in all democratic, industrialized, country's. Not some World
Order, or conspirator, or consiracy organization. Democracy has ruled,
and democracy is the will of the people. MAI or Nafta, the people wanted
the jobs, and benefits, and wealth, that comes with free trade.

The people elected the government officials, they are now providing
for the demands of the people, that elected them, right ??

(Mon Sep 15 1997 17:56)
BADGER: I was reluctant to do that because I don't have enough zeros on my calculator and it's too easy to mistakes. It doesn't seem right though. Remember, cash dollars are actual currency in circulation. You can't count checkbook money, savings accounts, T-Bills etc. those are all credit dollars.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 18:04)
6pak, correct, nobody cares about gold
Read your post on the irony of the situation. Of course, I want the world to function smoothly, that means we need to give people money to live for god sake. you are all scared of the big US debt, it's just a number, it means nothing, nobody cares as long as they have tasty food and Jerry Seinfeld.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 18:09)
Historical precedent suggests House Of Rothschild is buying gold hand over fist! See extensive analysis review of what the the Richest Family in the world is investing in now:

(Mon Sep 15 1997 18:09)
6pak and Big Bang
6pak..I too would like to believe that it is we, the people, who are responsible for the choices we have made, however, I know as an analyst of free trade agreements and a student of monetary policy that such a view ignores history and reality. Reality is, that until recently U.S. citizens were forbidden under law to own gold ( so why now, at this juncture? ) ...that is not freedom...why the anxiety of US govt and US Federal Reserve over US citizens holding gold ( are they afraid of a crisis of confidence of the US dollar by US citizens themselves, not foreigners who used to hold US dollars for the promise of exchange in gold ) . I also know enough about the Canada/US Free Trade Agreement and NAFTA that the real, calculated benefits were actually miniscule....thus these agreements must have served other grander purposes... Canadian citizens had their "consent manufactured" ( in the words of Noam Chomsky ) , convinced that free trade would be the golden rule to prosperity, yet their gut and their heart made them anxious...and they should be anxious.

So, I suggest that there can be and may be powerful players that, for all good intentions as well as personal greed, to collude and form oligarchies of power for reasons of control and power. Democracy can work so long as there is transparency of information and systems....if you can convince me that an unaudited Federal Reserve System is transparent then I'll eat my hat. If you can convince me that tinkering with key economic indicators by the Dept. of Commerce is "appropriate", then we are really in a sad state of affairs.

The sad truth is, given this evidence of tinkering and non-accountability, we the people sit back every night in front of our TVs and get force fed this nonsense, hardly noticing that we have been duped. We have become desensitized to unethical behaviour, and in our silence we condon its existence.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 18:15)
JollyMiller: What advantage does gold have over the other metals you named? It doesn't oxidise and it has high heat transmissibility. Try this experiment. Take off cover of your computer box ( unplug it first ) . Take out a couple of your peripheral boards. You'll see that they have gold prongs on the contacts. Try the same thing with the little jumpers that configure the circuits on the motherboard. Finally, pry off your cpu and break open the shell with a hammer. Surprise! not only does it have gold wires running everywhere and gold contacts but it has a gold heat sink. Then ( unless you can put it all back together again ) you might try some other hobby which doesn't force you to use gold.

Friend of Kitco
(Mon Sep 15 1997 18:21)
Another handle for the same old stuff
LGB departs JollyMiller appears. Ah hepcat show more creation.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 18:23)
BADGER, ZARDOZ: I fired up the Windos NT calculator which can handle the zeros. Here are the actual figures, ( I used rounding before ) .

There are 261,747,986 ounces of gold on deposit.
There are $460,098,000,000 worth of banknotes in circulation.
Divide notes into gold= .00056889 ounces of gold per U.S. dollar.

Gold Backing of the dollar:

Official rate of $42.22 = .024 cents worth of gold per U.S. dollar
Market rate of $324.50 = .184 cents worth of gold per U.S. dollar

( Someone please check my figures )

(Mon Sep 15 1997 18:39)
The Avengers, Earth's mightest Heroes
OK GoldAvneger, ur right about most of the contacts, BUT MY SIMMS ARE SILVER STRIPS AND THE'RE NEW ! maybe the industry is moving away from gold..hunh, hunh, got ya scared! Did you like the Avengers ?, I never thought the Sub-Mariner fit in with them.. Make mine Marvel !

(Mon Sep 15 1997 18:43)
@"Friend Of Kitco", Y2K
Hey "Fiend of Kitco" what's your regular handle? Now I get compared to this "Jolly Roger" guy? Have I EVER been THAT prolific? ( Or that nonsensical?? ) Come now, Puuhhhleasse give me a little credit. You're being more defamatory than RJ was toward me! BTW, to you and Miro both. How many times must I restate, that I never minimized the Y2K issue as being real, only stated all along that it's being "overhyped" ( As Hurricane Linda was earlier this weekend ) , and that I have every confidence that like dozens of other very complex problems of a systemic nature, it will be resolved by experts like Miro long before it can have even the slghtest impact on our investments??

Now listen, I've never wasted as much bandwidth as "JollyRoger" does....

(Mon Sep 15 1997 18:48)
Gloom & Doom fund outflow
Sorry for that last post folks, it was a network error over which I had no control. Now in order to be balanced and fair, here's a Gloom and Doom story on Mutual fund outlows today.....Monday September 15 6:11 PM EDT

U.S. stock funds $788 mln outflow in 3 days-survey

NEW YORK, Sept 15 ( Reuter ) - U.S. equity funds saw outflows of $788 million in the three days ending September 11,
compared to $2.2 billion in inflows in the prior two-day period, fund tracking service Mutual Fund Trim Tabs reported.

Aggressive growth funds saw $595 million in outflows in the three days versus $784 in inflows in the prior two days, Trim
Tabs said.

Growth funds had $353 milllion in outflows compared to $879 million in inflows, while growth and income funds' inflows
rose to $553 million from $497 million in inflows.

International funds outflows narrowed to $414 million from $750 million outflows in the prior two days, Trim Tabs said.

Total equity funds saw $1.2 billion in outflows versus $1.45 billion in inflows, the tracking service said.

Bond funds took in $210 million in the three days, compared to $164 million in inflows in the prior period, it said. Flows
into high-yield bond funds rose to $103 million versus $3 million in inflows, Trim Tabs said.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 18:56)
OK this is the last, I ain't comming back, applause please
OK you serious goldbugs, I've had enough fun with you today, I'aint comming back so don't summon the webmaster u just waste ur time. You guys gotta get outta the dark ages, people aren't turnned on by gold anymore. Food, sex, consumer products, entertainment, knowledge industries, this is what human beings value. Fool's gold has more than one meaning. Oh, LGB, if you read this, your posts were overly verbose. It just occured to me if anyone here was as smart as they are trying to sound, they would'nt be here in the first place, they would be making money. Warren Buffet or Bill Gates or George Soros or The Hose of Rothchilds doesen't chat on the net. So you guys are really just a bunch of gold "hobbyists" like remote control airplane guys. Bye guys it's been fun. Hey Selby, drop by the JM for pint, I'm there on thursday nights !, I wear a red John Deer Cap and ride the mechanical horse heeeeeee ha !!!!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 19:02)
Sheesh, and they compare me to THIS guy? No wonder people are calling for a squelch button.... ( and NO I'm not joining that bandwagon, just understand it better now ) . And I must say, though I am contrary to contrarians, they will certainly always be a place for the PM's and a day for them to shine again. I prefer the whites right now though. Industrial demand, supply shortages, no huge CB holdings overhanging the market, etc etc.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 19:09)
Zardoz @ 18:09
What is there to disagree with your take on the subject. Nothing.

The big question. What will turn this around. War, Education, Protests,
Attack workers representatives ( Unions ) . What.?

Every time workers attempt to gain access to the political representatives, they are hammered down.

Every time a group of welfare persons attempt to confront the state
machine, they also are hammered down. Without a worker revolt, no
change will be brought forth.

The answer is the workers, the working citizens. Certainly, not suits. There are those at this site, that have disrupted the chat. What purpose is served, a suit no doubt. An educated jerk, attempting to represent whom ? For what purpose? Self gratification ? I doubt it.

Yes, the Federal Reserve ( Central Bank ) is owned by a Corporation. The
Bank of Canada ( Central Bank ) is owned by a Corporation. So, the question
is, what percentage of the population is aware of such. ?

Next, do they care, and if they did, what the hell will they do about it.
Will the workers ( citizens ) revolt, will they put a stop to it. Will
the citizen request a change, and if so, what type of change will they
want ? I suggest, they will be frightened by the knowledge. Confused,
terrified, lost. What will they do with the fact, the wealth they have
is useless. These citizens have traded off a life of work, when they
should have been enjoying life, let the machines do the work. The work
ethic is dead. Many citizens have no other purpose in life, other then
their work. They are motivated by the accumulation of paper money. ( IOUs )

Free Trade, in any manner, must be brought forth, to continue the work
ethic, life is work, work is life. No other change is required by the
citizen. The issue is gold, and paper money. Is work and labour a factor,
democracy, and freedom a factor. I watch as gold bugs, attack worker
issues, why ? Is the worker citizen the enemy, is paper ( IOU ) the enemy.

I have had a difficult time understanding the attack on workers,welfare, both are citizens. Why is this attack necessary, what purpose ? Will
someone please put forth an answer. For the life of me, I do not under-
stand. I would appreciate an answer, any answer. Thank you, take care.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 19:10)

Gold mining shakeout forecast

Analysts expect more producers will have
to close mines as metal's price languishes

Monday, September 15, 1997
By Paul Waldie

The Globe and Mail
Gold producers will have to close more mines and some companies may go out of business
altogether because of the weak gold price, analysts and industry officials say.

Last week, Barrick Gold Corp. of Toronto said it was closing half of its 10 mines because of the
low gold price. Barrick is the first major gold producer to announce mine closings, but analysts say
other companies will have to follow suit.

About 22 per cent of the world's gold mines have operating costs above the current gold price of
around $324 ( U.S. ) an ounce, according to industry consultant Gold Fields Mineral Services Ltd. of

If the price of gold drops closer to $300 an ounce, nearly one-third of the world's mines will not be
economical, Gold Fields says.

"We really haven't had a lot of mine closures," said Peter Ward, an analyst with Lehman Brothers
Inc. in New York.

"It isn't because a lot of these mines aren't bleeding money, it's because a lot of people are still
hopelessly optimistic that this is just an aberration and $320 gold is not a reality and it's going to
bounce back. I disagree. I'm very bearish on the industry."

Mr. Ward said more mines will have to close and he expects the price of gold to stay at around
$330 an ounce throughout next year.

Bob Buchan, chief executive officer of Kinross Gold Corp. of Toronto, believes the industry has
hit bottom. However, he also expects more mine closures and some companies to go out of

"It's going to happen," he said referring to the likelihood of smaller players closing down for good.
"They are burning through the money they have, and you can't keep doing that when the [stock]
market won't give you more."

Mr. Buchan said Kinross has carefully assessed its eight mines and has no plans to close any. But he
doesn't expect a recovery in gold prices for several months.

The price has dropped 18 per cent over the last year, largely because of selling by central banks
that no longer view bullion as a critical part of their monetary strategy.

In the first half of this year, central banks sold 220 tonnes of gold compared with 72 tonnes in the
same period last year, according to a report released Friday by Gold Fields.

The only glimmer of hope for producers is the record demand for gold for jewelry-making in several
Middle Eastern countries and India. Demand for gold increased 35 per cent in the Middle East and
28 per cent in India in the first half of the year from the same period a year earlier, Gold Fields said.

But that demand won't solve the problem of the central banks, which still have a huge supply of gold
and could keep the market depressed for years, Mr. Ward said.

In a recent report, he said central banks own about one billion ounces of gold; if every gold mine
closed today, there would still be enough bullion in public and private hands to supply production
demands for about 17 years.

Victor Flores, an analyst with Marleau Lemire in Toronto, says short selling by institutions has also
caused the price to drop. Institutions sell borrowed gold in the hope of driving down the price and
buying the gold back at a lower price to cover what they owe.

Mr. Flores says fears about central bank selling have helped create a lucrative market for short

"The good thing about that, though, is that a short position eventually has to be reversed," he said.
"To the extent the market perception changes and improves, then [short sellers] will start to cover
their position. And the mood can change very quickly."

Mr. Flores said gold prices have bottomed out and that the market will turn upward soon. He
predicted gold will reach $375 an ounce next year.

However, he added that the industry still faces a lot of consolidation.

"This is not necessarily a bad thing," he said. "This industry needed to go through a kind of cleanup."

John Ing, of Maison Placements Canada Inc. in Toronto, agreed. He said gold producers were
caught up in pushing production in recent years at almost any cost.

"At long last fundamentals are taking hold and the industry has had to face up to reality that a good
part of the production is uneconomic," he said.

Referring to Canada's No. 1 gold producer, Barrick, he added: "When big daddy admits to the
world that in fact half its gold mines are not economic, then that's a pretty solid dose of reality."

Mr. Ing also believes the industry has bottomed out and will recover next year. "I sense that this
current quarter is the bottom quarter." He also forecasted gold prices at about $375 next year.

John Willson, chief executive officer of Vancouver-based Placer Dome Inc., is also bullish about
the future of gold. Placer is the second-largest gold producer in Canada and among the largest in the

"I bet you that next year we will be in something like $360 or better for the gold price average," he

Placer Dome recently sold two Canadian mines and saw the sale price drop because of the low
gold price. In May, Placer struck a deal to sell its Kiena and Sigma mines in Quebec for $70-million
to McWatters Mining Inc. of Rouyn-Noranda, Que. But the price was renegotiated in July to
$55-million because of the falling price of gold.

Mr. Willson said Placer has sold one other Canadian mine this year and cut costs to cope with the
falling gold price. Placer now has an interest in 13 gold mines around the world.

"We're concentrating more on those mines which we believe can give us better financial
performance," he said. "We are not considering closing any mines right now."

He added that the weak price of gold company stocks has created opportunities for Placer to
acquire assets and companies. The Toronto Stock Exchange index of gold company stocks has
dropped 31 per cent this year.

"We have just reorganized to be more aggressive on the acquisition side," he said. "Our strategy is
one of long-term, aggressive exploration."

Mr. Willson added that gold prices averaged $384 over the last 14 years and that the current slump
is abnormal.

"I have been through some of these cycles before and I believe [the price] will come back."

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Little-known facts about gold
(Mon Sep 15 1997 19:11)
@Library of Congress Research Division
1 ) There is enough gold on Mars to provide every US citizen with a solid gold cadillac, and a solid gold Chevy to registered aliens
2 ) All Central Bank gold sales over the last two years were secretly engineered by Princess Diana, Henry Kissinger, and David Rockefeller
3 ) You can't really tell if a gold coin is real by biting it.
4 ) The money that Bill Gates lost _today_ with the drop in MS stock would have bought him a 32% share in every active gold mining operation in the world.
5 ) If you bury Kruggerands at least five inches in the ground, wrapped in tinfoil, each one will be worth over $300.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 19:20)
BART: Thank you for the new "frame" site. It presents everything in one place and is most easy to navigate. It is a big improvement and well-done.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 19:21)
to Bart

Your good site is is being driven by nuts, idiots, and
rabble rousers. Consider the following sequence ( which
is becoming all to familiar ) :

Date: Mon Sep 15 1997 18:39
JollyMiller ( The Avengers, Earth's mightest Heroes ) :
OK GoldAvneger, ur right about most of the contacts, BUT MY SIMMS ARE SILVER
STRIPS AND THE'RE NEW ! maybe the industry is moving away from gold..hunh, hunh,
got ya scared! Did you like the Avengers ?, I never thought the Sub-Mariner fit in with them..
Make mine Marvel !

Date: Mon Sep 15 1997 18:43
Hey "Fiend of Kitco" what's your regular handle? Now I get compared to this "Jolly
Roger" guy? Have I EVER been THAT prolific? ( Or that nonsensical?? ) Come now,
Puuhhhleasse give me a little credit. You're being more defamatory than RJ was toward
me! BTW, to you and Miro both. How many times must I restate, that I never minimized
the Y2K issue as being real, only stated all along that it's being "overhyped" ( As
Hurricane Linda was earlier this weekend ) , and that I have every confidence that like
dozens of other very complex problems of a systemic nature, it will be resolved by
experts like Miro long before it can have even the slghtest impact on our investments??

Now listen, I've never wasted as much bandwidth as "JollyRoger" does....

Date: Mon Sep 15 1997 18:48
lgb ( Gloom & Doom fund outflow ) :
Sorry for that last post folks, it was a network error over which I had no control. Now in
order to be balanced and fair, here's a Gloom and Doom story on Mutual fund outlows

Date: Mon Sep 15 1997 18:56
JollyMiller ( OK this is the last, I ain't comming back, applause please ) :
OK you serious goldbugs, I've had enough fun with you today, I'aint comming back so don't
summon the webmaster u just waste ur time. You guys gotta get outta the dark ages, people
aren't turnned on by gold anymore. Food, sex, consumer products, entertainment, knowledge
industries, this is what human beings value. Fool's gold has more than one meaning. Oh, LGB,
if you read this, your posts were overly verbose. It just occured to me if anyone here was as
smart as they are trying to sound, they would'nt be here in the first place, they would be
making money. Warren Buffet or Bill Gates or George Soros or The Hose of Rothchilds
doesen't chat on the net. So you guys are really just a bunch of gold "hobbyists" like remote
control airplane guys. Bye guys it's been fun. Hey Selby, drop by the JM for pint, I'm there on
thursday nights !, I wear a red John Deer Cap and ride the mechanical horse heeeeeee ha !!!!

Date: Mon Sep 15 1997 19:02
LGB ( @JollyNimrod ) :
Sheesh, and they compare me to THIS guy? No wonder people are calling for a squelch
button.... ( and NO I'm not joining that bandwagon, just understand it better now ) . And I
must say, though I am contrary to contrarians, they will certainly always be a place for the
PM's and a day for them to shine again. I prefer the whites right now though. Industrial
demand, supply shortages, no huge CB holdings overhanging the market, etc etc.

Bart - PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE - Provide us with a squelch button.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 19:22)
Arch and Puetz
Both betting their reputations on the full moon eclipse. Arch said it was even more powerful because the moon is in perigee. For you non astronomical types out there, that's the opposite of apogee ;- )

Hey Puetz, if you're right, oleman will cash in his spoos, and buy a life time subscription to your newsletter. We have it in writing :- )

(Mon Sep 15 1997 19:29)
looking for a good gold site
Does anyone know of a good gold site?

Mike Sheller
(Mon Sep 15 1997 19:38)
PB: Save your cyber breath. When you address the Philistines, their answer is invariably as follows:

Don' know much Anthroposophy
Ain' got any Theosophy
If we could get rid o' Homeopathy
What a wonderful world it would be

Nevertheless, as the Great Investor himself said, " pray for those who despitefully use you."

(Mon Sep 15 1997 19:46)
Jake Bernstein
Has some good observations this week on trading.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 19:55)
@Lurker, 19:21
Excuse me Lurker, but re your 19:21 where you critisize my posts once again and demand censorship tools. My 19:02 was to honestly disavow any relation to "Jolly" and then DIRECTLY related to Gold , Silver, Platinum which I THINK is what this forum is primarily about ( but which PM subject I rarely see addressed by all the "regulars" who are so vociferous in their attacks on my posts ) . My 18:48 was in support of views which oppose my own as to market direction and mutual fund outflow, certainly QUITE relevant here in view of Puetze's threads and others, and finally my 18:43 was simply a response to certain harsh criticims of previous opinions I have posted re PROLIFIC subject threads I did not initiate, Y2K, and El Nino. Certainly I'm a lot more "On topic" here than folks who have nothing to say but "Bart, Give us a squelch button". You HAVE a squelch button pal, it's like the dial on your TV remote. Use it.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 20:00)
Mike Sheller ( 19:38 ) : Love it! LOL.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 20:05)
@Panda,Puetz, EB, Novice
Panda ( 9:11 ) Hope ya feel better after gettin that off yer chest...I haven't given up on PM stox but then I only have about 8% of my stock+bond portfolio in ABX and as I've said ( probably too many times ) my other holdings are in essential industries and most of em are in DRIP...
so as long as as they don't cut or eliminate their dividends,I could care less what the stock price the short term....Diversification helps me sleep @ night and has also helped the ole pocketbook fer the past 10-15 years....Unlike many,I don't think the western world will collapse ( at least not for a while ) and the stox market won't go to 300 ( at least for a while ( long ) ) ....and in the meantime I'll continue to average into consevative essential stox ( international oil,pipelines, utilities ect ect....Have done well with a drip right in yer back yard ( BGC ) ...This said, I'm sufficently nervous about the market that I will be selling some of my non-drip stox...that is if my registered mail sent from Cape Breton on 9/5 ever gets to Fidelity....could of paddled there by now!!..
Puetz ( 9:37 ) Blutarsky intoxicated?????...Puetz ( 9:37 ) Chicago Bears...boy are you on a losing streak....cept dem boilermakers!....EB ( 12:24 ) Call me an "ole hippy" ..will ya...sputter..sputter..&*$@$Y^$...can still "rock n roll" ya young wipper-snapper.....Novice: thought you'd never post again!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 20:05)
...IMF better get ready to pour more good money after bad....maybe Australia should sell more gold to help Thailand.....
The fall in reserves was beyond expectations,
Deutsche Morgan Grenfell chief economist Arporn
Chewakrengkai, said, adding if the decline
continued at the same rate Thailand's financial
stability would be in jeopardy.

"The figure came out much lower than expected,"
she said. "It's quite frightening . . . It means the total
outflow was about $3.6 billion in only 15 days."
The reserves are perilously close to the minimum of
4.2 months of imports the IMF requires or about
$23.6 billion.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 20:08)
Dow/Gold Ratio 23.92

Yellow Jacket
(Mon Sep 15 1997 20:11)
Try this.
CURIOUS: Give this one a try. Good comments on factors affecting gold prices and updated daily.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 20:16)
SSC stock, vs, AU stocks
SSC up about 15% since I bought and recommended it last week at 3/4. Big gain for one week considering the terrible beating the Gold stocks are taking. ( And even SWC ) . The pick was based on some very important but often overlooked PM market fundamentals. The very important "Stadium wave" theory I already explained on this forum, combined with factoring in some chicken entrail readings, a Palmist I consulted, 2 calls to the 1-900 psychic hotlines advertised on late night TV, and a re-reading of the predictions of Edgar Casey as interpreted by a famous Theosophist. Works every time.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 20:17)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )


(Mon Sep 15 1997 20:23)
Criticism of globalization, by the UN no less.

"Monday September 15 7:19 PM EDT
UN agency: rich getting richer
UNITED NATIONS, Sept. 15 ( UPI ) _ The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development says ( Monday ) the world economy, while improving, will again be too slow in 1997 to make a significant dent in poverty in the south and joblessness in the north. UNCTAD also warns globalization is widening the gap between rich and poor, not only among countries, but within some nations."

George Cole
(Mon Sep 15 1997 20:25)

We need very heavy upside volume across the board to convince me that a major turnaround is at hand. This means all the majors and many of the minors. Heavy volume in one or two stocks generally reflect company specific factors only.

Ted: That article was right on the money. Many gold mines will have to close. The entire gold mining industry must be radically restructured. There are far too many financially weak gold companies today. In the long run this will be all to the good. The survivors will enjoy truly staggering increases in their stock prices when things improve.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 20:26)
They are still talking about this guy in Cairo....In 1324 AD the King of Mali, Mansa Musa, took a pilgrimage to Mecca. On his way he stopped in Cairo travelling with his 80 to 100 camels, each carrying 300 pounds of gold ingots. He gave it all away to shrines and people he met along the way. He brought so much gold to Egypt that the value of gold fell by 10 to 25%. Staying there 3 months he spent every dime and had to borrow for the return trip! He repaid the loans at the rate of 700 dinars for every 300 he borrowed. ( from Millennium, A History of the Last Thousand Years, by Felipe Fernandez Armesto )

(Mon Sep 15 1997 20:30)
John Tomkins(inflows to gold mutual funds increase)
An officer of the People's Bank of China quoted in a government publication said that China was repaying foreign
debts, "and the necessary gold reserve will be one mark of our country's credit to guarantee payment because the
reserve reflects our country's economic strength." Meanwhile, the Russians are reportedly talking about issuing
gold-backed bonds as an alternative to selling gold reserves. The Goldman Sachs report suggests that China and
Russia may have absorbed some of the central bank gold sold this year.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 20:37)
Gold: High cost and low output force
radical change for South Africa


By Ken Gooding

South Africa's gold mining industry, which has long been the republic's
principal earner of foreign currency and a key pillar of the economy, is set
to change more in the next five years than in the previous 30. This process
of change is so fundamental it has been described as a re-engineering of
South African gold mining.

The recent fall of the gold price to a 12-year low, in US dollar terms, has
confirmed the need for urgent change.

A new breed of executives are ready to take a radically different
approach. They view gold mining more as a business, to generate returns
for all stakeholders, rather than just a matter of moving as much rock as

Pressure for change has developed because, for the international gold
investor, South African mines are no longer the only option.

South Africa's share of global gold production has fallen from 80 per cent
to 30 per cent in the past 25 years. Since 1970 its gold output has fallen by
half, from 1,000 tonnes a year to 500 tonnes.

When South Africa held 80 per cent of production, those investment fund
managers wanting a stake in gold via equities had to buy shares in South
African companies. This is no longer the case.

South African gold mining companies now have very low stock market
ratings compared with their peers from other parts of the world. The
practical impact of this is that raising capital costs much more for a South
African gold mining group than for one of its international rivals.

Consequently, there was pressure for change from international
shareholders. This pressure produced startling results at Randgold, the
smallest of South Africa's mining finance houses. A shareholder revolt,
prompted by Julian Baring at the UK investment fund group, Mercury
Asset Management, resulted in the removal of the directors and their
replacement by a new board headed by Peter Flack, now executive

The key changes sought by Randgold shareholders are now being
implemented throughout the industry. They include:

eliminating the management contracts between the mining companies
and the mining finance houses;

eliminating management layers at the mines and improving flexibility;

restructuring the industry via mergers;

exchanging mineral rights between companies to group small mining
areas together.

A mineral rights swap deal organised earlier this year by Bobby Godsell,
chief executive of Anglo American's gold division, and Tom Dale,
managing director of Gengold, the Gencor subsidiary, will enable the
companies to gain access from their existing operations to ground
containing about 230 tonnes ( 7.4m troy ounces ) of gold.

Mr Dale suggests the deal and others like it could not have been done five
years ago and were made possible by the attitude of the new generation of

The same can be said about the mergers that are restructuring the industry.
Gengold and Anglovaal have led the way, with both merging several mines
into one new one with substantial production capacity.

Whereas Anglo American, the biggest of the South African gold miners, is
involved in mineral swaps and is changing the way it operates its mines,
most observers believe that the group will never join its rivals by taking the
other big step - eliminating management contracts between the finance
house and its mines.

Mr Baring suggests that it now makes no sense to have mines that are
substantial in their own right existing as outposts of the finance houses
rather than as self-contained entities mandated to optimise profits.

He adds that the best reasons for doing away with the contracts include:

mine managers would no longer need to pay for services they did
not get or need;

fees previously paid to shareholders of mining houses will instead
accrue to the shareholders of individual mines;

management contracts are no longer a "poison pill" designed to
deter takeovers;

mining finance houses would have to maximise the share price of
their underlying mines, rather than their management fees, in order to
discourage predators;

employees could have share options in the mine for which they work
rather than in the controlling finance house and would no longer be
confused about where their loyalties and career prospects really lie.

These arguments do not sway Anglo American. Julian Ogilvie Thompson,
its chairman, insists that the mines get good value for money from finance
houses. He says Anglo American has built up considerable technical and
intellectual expertise that no individual mine could possibly have afforded.

However, while resisting pressure to change the mining finance house
structure, Anglo American is among those revolutionising productivity
throughout the industry. The hierarchical and militaristic management
structure that mirrored the apartheid political system is breaking down.
Multi-skilled teams, working together to achieve a common goal of
maximising production and their team bonus, regularly advance 20 metres
a month. In the past, the average rate of advance was eight metres a

If the gold price remains relatively low, however, some mines might not
survive to see the "re-engineering" process take hold.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 20:42)
China(it could happen)

Taking on Uncle Sam

China is amassing the weapons that will put it in a position to engage in economic warfare with the US.
Its foreign exchange reserves will reach $100 billion by the end of this year, second only to Japan's and
ahead of those of Germany and the US. ( US reserves stood at $85.6 billion at the end of May. ) And
China's trade surplus with the US overtook Japan's for the first time in June.

Vast foreign reserves imply the power to move international financial markets. China is buying Eurobonds
and plans to build a portfolio of US treasuries. Foreign ownership of US debt is the Achilles heel of the
US economy. "The foreign share [of US national debt] has grown sharply during the Clinton
administration from 19.1% in 1992 to 27.5% in March of this year  by far the highest percentage in
American history," wrote Bruce Bartlett, senior fellow at the US National Center for Policy Analysis in
the The Washington Times in July.

China will soon be able to emulate Japan's position in the treasuries market, affecting both US bond
prices and the dollar. But there's an important difference  at bottom Japan and the US are allies; the US
and China are enemies.

The next time the US threatens China with sanctions for copyright or trade infringements, China's reply
could be a large-scale treasuries sale. The resulting economic tumult would be felt worldwide. Bond
prices and the dollar would plummet and markets fall into disarray.

To many economists, the fundamental friendliness or hostility of those holding vast amounts of US paper
is of no consequence. The fact that the US is running huge trade deficits  a record $173.4 billion last
year  funded by foreign money is destabilizing whoever it is borrowing from. In The Future of
Capitalism Lester Thurow writes: "No-one can run a large trade deficit forever. The United States is
very large, it can borrow a lot and sell a lot before it goes broke, but at some point the world's financial
markets will clamp down upon it just as they clamped down on Mexico."

(Mon Sep 15 1997 20:42)
Monday September 15 7:56 PM EDT

TOCOM precious metal futures seen opening weaker

Tokyo precious metals futures seen opening lower on Tuesday, reflecting weaker New York market on
Monday and yen's stronger tone against dollar, traders said.
Benchmark August gold futures seen starting nearly 10 yen per gram lower than Friday's close of 1,231
New York gold futures market ended lower Monday with threat of future central bank gold sales casting
pall over market. COMEX December gold ended at $324.70 per ounce, down $1.60 from Friday's
Spot gold quoted at $322.70/323.00 per ounce in early Tokyo trade, against $322.80/3.30 in New York
on Monday. - Tokyo Commodities desk ( 81-3-3432-7391 )

(Mon Sep 15 1997 20:49)
Dow (no other way but DOWN)
...the beat goes on...Eastman-Kodak, Coca-Cola, Gillette, Procter & Gamble, Motorola, Microsoft and Eastman-Kodak again
...more dipping opportunities......down over $4 in afterhours trading...
Kodak Sees Lower 3Q Results, to Restructure

ROCHESTER, N.Y. ( Reuter ) - Eastman Kodak Co., struggling with intense competition and the impact of a strong dollar, said
Monday it expected to post lower sales and earnings in its current quarter.

The troubled film giant, which posted disappointing results in the prior quarter as well, said it plans to take "strong action" by
eliminating "money losers" and non-strategic units to reduce its cost structure

(Mon Sep 15 1997 20:50)
EU sticks to Emu timing


By Lionel Barber and Wolfgang Mnchau in Mondorf-les-Bains

The European Union has given its clearest signal to date that economic and
monetary union ( Emu ) will go ahead as planned on January 1, 1999 - and
at the same time made it more difficult for financial markets to speculate
against the project.

EU finance ministers agreed that bilateral conversion rates for future
members of the single currency would be announced next May. The
declaration will coincide with EU leaders' choice of the founding members
of Emu.

The new element in the Emu timetable, agreed at a weekend meeting of
finance ministers and central bankers in Luxembourg, is intended to reduce
the risk of currency speculation before the launch of the single currency,
the euro. "We will de facto have a piece of monetary union in place," said
Hans Tietmeyer, president of the Bundesbank, the German central bank.

As a result, investors will know by May what rates should prevail between,
say, the D-Mark and the French franc between 1999 and 2002, when
euro-notes and coins will come into circulation.

Ministers left open whether they would use the central rates in the
exchange rate mechanism to establish the irrevocable rates for Emu
participants. Central rates are the most likely option.

The weekend declaration does not cover the eventual conversion rates
between national currencies and the euro. These will be determined on
January 1, 1999, according to the Maastricht treaty, which lays down the
terms for Emu. Officials acknowledged that the "pre-announcement"
strategy depends crucially on whether financial markets view the choice of
countries as credible, since exchange rates can still fluctuate between May
1998 and January 1999.

The selection will be based on whether countries have met in a sustainable
manner the Maastricht treaty's criteria on inflation, interest rates, exchange
rate stability, public sector debt and deficits.

Divisions resurfaced between France and Germany over how to
co-ordinate economic policy among countries in the future euro zone.

France is still pressing for a "visible" and "legitimate" political body - a
Euro-council - to accompany the future European central bank, which will
set monetary policy in the euro zone. Germany is insisting on an ad hoc
arrangement, with no powers to instruct or interfere with the independent
central bank.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 20:55)
Good chat place. no doubt about it. I was entertained.
I hope JOLLYMILLER shows up again. But now it's time
for some football.

Yellow Jacket
(Mon Sep 15 1997 20:58)
You're right.
LGB: ( Assuming you and Jollies are not the same ) ...I'd rather read your postings instead of his any day. At least you've mellowed out some. By the way, I thought I was going to overdose on bland gold stock info over the weekend. I knew you couldn't hold out.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 21:00)
@ Tort + Monday night in America
Hi Tort!...thankx for bonus joke!!...especially the part about the Dallas Cowboys.....GO EAGLES!.....down with "the boys"...and neon-Deion.....Go Gold! ....and stox....

(Mon Sep 15 1997 21:07)
@ bonus joke
"Why do the Dallas Cowboys practice on a dirt field?? They smoked all the grass and snorted all the lines".....We'll be off with the kickoff when we return.....Go Gold.....Hi EB....wipper......snappper..

(Mon Sep 15 1997 21:15)
O.K. I give up! How you post in the frames mode? Or should I ask; Can you post in the frames mode ( yet ) ?

Bart -- I like it!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 21:17)
@ Yellow Jacket
Thank you YJ, you're a gentleman and a scholar. No I would never stoop to the level of "Jolley's" pointless shotgun postings, and YES I couldn't hold out all weekend. AS Ron at "Sack- ra-tamato" said, I could only pout so long!!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 21:19)
Now my writing skills are going to hell too! Along with the english language abilities...

So, how do you post in the frames mode? Can you post in the frames mode???

(Mon Sep 15 1997 21:23)
Panda: ya sound frustrated.....join the club!....Puetz: "near" full moon looks beautiful as it shines on a calm ocean...

(Mon Sep 15 1997 21:28)
George Cole -- Dont look for a selling climax in the PM stocks. The reason is simple, NO ONE is BUYING. It seems as though there plenty of willing sellers, but very few buyers. Apparently, even the market makers dont want to take on the shares that are available. Hence, the prices slowly grind down on low volume. IF we ever see an up day on heavy volume, I will be watching the price action closely! I want to see how this works going in the other direction!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 21:33)
@Who me?
TED -- Frustrated? Me?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 21:36)
to Bart

Does the new frames mode have a squelch button?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 21:37)
Yeah YOU!!...Takes one ta know!...Dec gold down .20 @ 324.50 and Nikkei down 85 ( 0.48% ) ....

(Mon Sep 15 1997 21:46)
What do you think will happen with "full faith and credit of the USA"?

IRS Y2K woes cost more
Sharon Machlis
News, 09/15/97 )
The Internal Revenue Service needs $600 million more than previously forecast to fix its year 2000 problems, a spokesman said last week.
The earlier estimate was based on a standard formula of $2.70 per line of code that needs fixing. But the IRS discovered this summer that simply repairing code won't solve some year 2000 problems. Instead, entirely new software is needed for some applications, which in turn will require new hardware, according to a statement by Robert Albicker, the agency's deputy chief information officer. ``It's typical IRS,'' said a spokesman for Rep. Rob Portman ( R-Ohio ) , who co-chairs the National Commission on Restructuring the IRS. ``It confirms what we've been thinking all along.'' The IRS has come under heavy criticism for computer problems over the years, including a trouble-plagued modernization effort that critics said wasted billions. SOME FEAR that the IRS started working on the year 2000 problem TOO LATE.
The latest projected cost for year 2000 work at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, which includes the IRS, has now hit $1.1 billion.
Overall, the estimated year 2000 cost to the federal government has soared more than $1 billion since the previous forecast last May, which was $2.8 billion. Private analysts criticized that figure as unreasonably low.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 21:47)
TED -- I'm reduced to watching the 'new' season premiers on Fox. Watching Ali McBeal now. I think the show is about a single woman. Now I understand, why I don't understand women. Hell, I don't even understand the show! Now I know why I've been trading gold stocks... Much easier to understand. :- ) )

Front -- With that 'change' in the law up there this summer... How's the cooler weather 'affecting' things ;- ) )

O.K. Back to 'serious' things now.

Spud Master
(Mon Sep 15 1997 21:56)
Get yer facts straight: yer posted [Gold is rare, Technium is more rare.] The correct name is "Technetium" and there are bleed'n thoudands of tons of it as it is a common by-product of fission reactors - enough to use it as an alloy for corrosion-resistant steel. You don't know the periodic table from a tiger's bum.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 21:56)
Millennium bug 'could cause banks to crash'
The Guardian
Tue, Sep 09 1997
THE Bank of International Settlements said yesterday that banks could
collapse if they failed to eradicate the millennium bug from their computer systems.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 22:00)
Year 2000: What's Everybody Waiting For?

American Banker
Mon, Sep 08 1997
Never before has the American public and American business, in particular, been faced with so large a looming catastrophe as that
threatening with the Year 2000.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 22:06)
El Nio and the Pineapple Express:

Do I buy oil, gas or umbrellas?

(Mon Sep 15 1997 22:15)
from Wesgaard2000

Y2K May Clip NASDAQ'S Wings

This past week we have seen the NASDQ hitting record highs, continuing the bullish trend we have been experiencing for years. However, something quite unexpected may bring the run to a crashing end. A year ago this time I wrote an article predicting that as the year 2000 drew near, so would competition for IS dollars. Those businesses, which have been addressing the problem, have been making every effort to fund the work out of existing budgets. This is true for the government as well as the private sector. While still serving in his capacity of CIO for the
military, former Under Secretary of Defense Emmett Page stated last year that his organization had been ordered to take the cost of Y2K "out of hide". He was adamant that no new funding would be appropriated. OMB recently upped their estimate for the cost to fix the problem to $3.8 Billion. Likewise in the private sector, organizations such as Chase
Manhattan bank ( $250,000,000 in Y2K expenses ) and Federal Express ( $500,000,000 in Y2K expenses ) are making every effort to keep these costs from impacting the bottom line. They may not be successful. According to JP Morgan's William Rabin, nearly 40% of the cost of fixing the Y2K problem will exceed existing Information Technology budgets.
This will lead both to a revenue drought for many high-tech companies who have nothing to do with Y2K and, as we get nearer to the panic year of 1999, a draining away of IT dollars with increasing intensity.
This latter point has been making quite a bit of news recently. In a special supplement to Forbes September 22, 1997 issue, the Gartner Group provided an intuitive graph of Y2K expenditures, illustrating the 'crunch' that will apply to IS budgets. According to Gartner, Y2K spending will peak late this year and early next year. In my opinion, in light of the complexities of testing and the intense competition for resources that will be a non-linear driver on costs, the spending peak will be extended out six months, well into 1998. As a result, the spending curve will have a flatter top, with expenditures extending into 1999. Talk about waiting until the last minute! In addition, I predict that the impact of this spending pinch will begin to show up in the quarterly results of some of the best performing companies on the NASDAQ. Through no fault of their own, projects will be cancelled or delayed and revenues will suffer. Since these companies have been trading on forward looking P/E's, the bottom is likely to fall out.
My advice: Consider taking profits out now before the bloodbath begins. Sooner rather than later.
Tony Keyes

(Mon Sep 15 1997 22:19)

oracle of albertas' article compliments you both.
you, for providing the vehicle. he, for delivering
the goods. very few people know the real story behind
our current monetary system, AND its' taskmasters.

thanks to both of you for your efforts.
a seat awaits----------tssmssfatimm

(Mon Sep 15 1997 22:27)
@the ark
aaaa, how's about a large boat about the size of a football field ???

thanks for the "Christ child" ( El Nino ) info....
It,s pertinent to my calling...

(Mon Sep 15 1997 22:38)
Tokyo Gold soft
Monday September 15 9:42 PM EDT

Hong Kong gold opens easier, extends New York fall

HONG KONG, Sept 16 ( Reuter ) - Hong Kong gold opened easier in early Tuesday trading, extending its declines in
New York overnight, dealers said.

Bullion opened at US$322.20/70 an ounce against New York's US$322.80/323.30 close on Monday and Hong
Kong's previous close of US$323.10/60.

``Gold was pushed down by central bank sales and fund selling,'' a local trading house dealer said. ``But I don't
expect more selling interest after the local opened and traders moved to buy on dips.''

``The metal's overall trend remained mixed and gold will move in a range of US$321.50-323.50 today,'' a dealer

The local market will be closed Wednesday for the Chinese Mid-Autumn festival.

Local gold opened HK$8 lower at HK$2,982 a tael.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 22:41)
Panda ( 21:47 ) They're both hard ta predict!!....Hang Seng down 151.26 ( 1.03% ) ....

(Mon Sep 15 1997 22:44)
@Lurker 21:36
Lurker@21:36, Re your latest in a long line of insightful informative posts you've made giving us info.and opinions on the precious metals markets. I have one tiny criticism. Do you think that at least once in awhile your posts could include a request from Bart for a Squelch button? Thanks,LGB.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 22:46)
Squelch THIS...
Lurker - Use the scroll button. All I've been reading about is you crying for a squelch button. Ya' big crybaby! Get OVER it! the game

(Mon Sep 15 1997 23:06)
@Miro,RJ, all Y2K mea culpa
Miro, let it never be said that LGB doesn't admit when he's wrong. You all stirred my insatiable curiosity to the point that I spent the better part of today doing Y2K research, including calls to colleagues in the Silicon Valley at Oracle, Sun Microsystems, and several MIS / IT types within my own industry.

Bottom line, it is in fact bigger than I had earlier been led to believe. I hereby swallow my pride and say to all "You were right...kind of". Why the "kind of?" Well, several of the individuals I spoke to did voice a strongly held view that the problem is being somewhat overhyped by the media and by sensationalists, and would be 99% solved by the date in question. However,others told me what I've seen posted here. Companies don't seem to be paying close enough attention, feeling they have "plenty of time" to let someone "else" solve the problem before they expend their own precious funds. OK, forget the "kind of", re all my posts minimizing Y2K, as Rosanne, Rosanna Danna would say ..."Never Mind!"

( See RJ, some folks can actually admit when they're wrong without worrying that their male member will shrink. Course if you have a tiny one already........... )

PS: All Kitcoites, one thing though, why is going back to the year 1900 such a big deal? We were on the GOLD standard then......I'd think you'd all be thrilled!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 23:07)
Dec. Gold down .50 @ 324.20...U.S.Dollar strong tonight...GO EAGLES...

(Mon Sep 15 1997 23:20)
Homeopathic Gold
I noticed that someone in an earlier post seems to believe in Homeopathy. You know, diluting a substance to .001 or less of it's original strength so it can work wonders far better in our bodies than the full strength substances? I thought maybe we could extend that concept to gold. Put a tiny tiny bit in an amulet, hang it around the neck, and hope it keeps all the Eeeeeeeevil spirits away.....

or better yet, we could all send a tiny bit, a few angstroms of gold, impregnated in stationary, to all the eeeeevil central bankers, Wall street brokers, Allen Greenspan, and Govt. treasury dept.conspirators who foist all those phony FRN's and overinflated stocks off on us?

They'd all unknowingly pick up these "Homeopathic" traces of gold, and then subliminally..they'd ALL become gold bugs!! They'd all immediatley recommend a 100% shifting of assets to PM's. Thus driving the price to new and astronomical levels!! $2,000, $3,000, $4,000 the sky's the limit!!!

(Mon Sep 15 1997 23:22)
Once again I'll say that this site has the greatest charting package.
It will show all stocks, futures, options etc in Q,M,W,D and 60, 30, 15, 10, 5, 1 minute intervals. Live before your eyes.
Click anywhere in the price/info box and you will get bid/ask and ohlcv.
Click on the index codes in top right hand corner and you will go directly to that index.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 23:23)
New Deal @ Fines & Ponzi.
SEC fines investment adviser, officers $255,000

BOSTON ( Reuter ) - The Securities and Exchange Commission said Monday it ordered the chairman and two former
officials of a Massachusetts investment advisory firm and its broker-dealer affiliate to pay $255,000 in fines.
The agency also moved to prevent John MacKenzie, the former controller of BTS/Bond Timing Inc. who is serving a
51-month prison term, from working in the securities industry again.

Illinois man settles Ponzi scheme charges

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - An Illinois man settled civil charges that he violated securities laws by defrauding investors of
about $120 million in a Ponzi scheme, the Securities and Exchange Commission said Monday.
Edward Collins, who at the time of the alleged scam lived Hoffman Estates near Chicago and was vice president of Lake
States Inc., neither admitted nor denied allegations filed by the SEC in a civil complaint in Chicago federal court.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 23:32)
Ted: I just finish a short stroll down the street. Yes indeed, the moon is reaching a full state. It's creating an eerie atmosphere here in West Lafayette. By the way, the stock market was still sucking in the lunatics today. Secondary stocks ( Russell 2000 and the Value Line ) made new highs today. Among speculators ( lunatics ) , secondary stocks are a favorite.

In spite of the modest decline in the DJIA and the S&P, it's not until the secondary stocks decline, that the back will be broken on the stock market. Also, when secondary stocks start to fall, gold should finally start to rise. I expect the secondary stocks to finally break down tomorrow or Wednesday.

When that happens, the 6-week topping pattern will be complete for ALL of the stock averages. The DJIA and the S&P have already completed their tops -- and the crash has started for them.

Kahunna Gande
(Mon Sep 15 1997 23:35)
George Cole & Snoop
Snoop symbol of Giant is GI. Giant Industries. George Cole. It would take a disruption of deliveries to the gulf coast for HOC to rocket. To me they are just a long term defensive against problems. HOC is a well run company. They pinch a penny till Lincoln screams. Also they are positioning themselves for supplying refined product to the intermountain west. This may not mean a lot to people but there is a refined product squeeze in the populatuion centers of Denver, Salt Lake City, Boise, Albuquerque. Population is increasing but there is only limited refining capicity in this region. All the old pipelines that are left were designed to move crude oil to the midwest not refined product into this region. While I wont get rich with these two stocks, but if there is a disruption problem I want to be betting on the refiners that are not dependant on foreign crude and are not three weeks from refinery feedstock. At some point there is good money to be made from these two stocks.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 23:47)
The dollar?

"The dollar is heavy" said James Powers VP at Westdeutsche Landesbank Girozentral in NY.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 23:49)
Nick: Thanks for the Quote.Com site - looks great - I'll try it
out tomorrow.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 23:55)
Puetz @ 23:32
Steve, regardless of the timing. Your projections are on the money.
As well, the reasons are sound. Timing, is the elusive factor. You have done a great job. Know it. Thanks, Take care.

(Mon Sep 15 1997 23:59)
Good evening . I have been reading this chat for several months and have never posted. At this time I would like to pen my opinion of this group. I enjoy the forum very much and find all the postings to be informative, interesting, amusing, entertaining and very helpful since I have been a gold bug since 1976. However, recently I find it very distressful that some here do not believe in free speech and the right to voice opinion and comment based on some knowlege. Our freedom of expression is slowly being eroded away by the pc group, hate speech group, thought crime group, etc. The internet may be the last haven for these freedoms. As long as a poster is not abusive to others he should have his say without reprimand as this will add some good thought to the debating process. As some famous person once said "I never met a person I couldn't learn something from."

Now on to the reason for the post: I have a few questions I would like to throw out to the group:
#1 = y2K If the problem is the digits 00 why can't something be substituted for this: Such as 0A or A0 or some other something , just not 00. As you can tell I know nothing about this.. just asking..
#2 Why is someone buying up all this gold that the CB's and governments of various countries are selling? It seems strange to me that the whold world has somehow agreed to sell someone a tremendous amount of gold for what I would call deflated prices all at one time. What's the purpose? What's the plan?
#3 What are the consequences of a world wide economic collapse? As I understand it the failure of a small bank in Austria started the wave of economic decline that resulted in the 1930 depression.
#4 Can the USA survive a world wide collapse= or is it in C's plan not to.
Just a few thoughts I have ; maybe some of you can give some answers..
P.S. Love the chat group: Keep a sense of humor in this crazy world.