Date: Mon Sep 15 1997 20:16
LGB ( SSC stock, vs, AU stocks ) :

SSC up about 15% since I bought and recommended it last week at 3/4. Big gain for one week considering the terrible beating the Gold stocks are taking.

Replace the batteries LGB. It closed today at .812

.750 to .812 is only ~8% not 15

DUH !

Date: Mon Sep 15 1997 20:16
LGB ( SSC stock, vs, AU stocks ) :

SSC up about 15% since I bought and recommended it last week at 3/4. Big gain for one week considering the terrible beating the Gold stocks are taking.

Replace the batteries LGB. It closed today at .812

.750 to .812 is only ~8% not 15

DUH !

S Puetz: You have apparently failed to take into account what could be the most telling gold "bull" signal yet! Tampa Bay Bucs last went 3-0 in 1979...nuff said!

S Puetz: You have apparently failed to take into account what could be the most telling gold "bull" signal yet! Tampa Bay Bucs last went 3-0 in 1979...nuff said!

Trust me Panda, "Things" have never been perkier !

TTFN

Trust me Panda, "Things" have never been perkier !

TTFN

Watcher: If I remember correctly, here's what happened to Tampa Bay:
1 ) They got a great full-back from Purdue -- Mike Alstott.
2 ) They got a great coach from the Chicago Bears -- Mike Dittt-kaaaaa.

Watcher: If I remember correctly, here's what happened to Tampa Bay:
1 ) They got a great full-back from Purdue -- Mike Alstott.
2 ) They got a great coach from the Chicago Bears -- Mike Dittt-kaaaaa.

I don't ^@$#*^&# believe it.....

ALL: To those of you who are concerned about the demise of our US society and its devolution into a totalitarian state, I offer the following disturbing news item reported on the front page of today's "Orange County Register": "Police Officers and Firefighters in four Orange County cities can chug beers when they are not working. They can eat Prime Rib every night - sendidng their cholesterol into the stratosphere - but if they light up a cigar, they can be fired. Anaheim, Brea, Buena park, and Fullerton have quietly enacted policies aimed at eliminating smokers from a large part of their workforce." Any employee hired after January 1, 1987 shall refrain from the use of any tobacco product, ON OR OFF DUTY, as a condition of employment. In other words, if any policeman or firefighter smokes a cigar at HOME, he can be fired! Now, I ask you, how exactly is this draconian law to be enforced? Will they post it at the schools and encourage the children of county employees to turn in their parents if the see them smoking a cigar? Whether you smoke or not, this is SCARY stuff, my friends! I DO NOT smoke, nor do most people I know, but this is a fundamental infringement of all our liberty. Don't forget that totalitarian states have acheived their ends not by instituting their nefarious policies all at once, but rather by incrementally removing the rights of disaffected and unpopular groups little by little so that the populace just gets used to the gradual slipping away of rights. Once the totalitarians get around to removing rights from everyone, it's too late - precedent has already been established and most people have already been lulled to sleep.

I don't ^@$#*^&# believe it.....

ALL: To those of you who are concerned about the demise of our US society and its devolution into a totalitarian state, I offer the following disturbing news item reported on the front page of today's "Orange County Register": "Police Officers and Firefighters in four Orange County cities can chug beers when they are not working. They can eat Prime Rib every night - sendidng their cholesterol into the stratosphere - but if they light up a cigar, they can be fired. Anaheim, Brea, Buena park, and Fullerton have quietly enacted policies aimed at eliminating smokers from a large part of their workforce." Any employee hired after January 1, 1987 shall refrain from the use of any tobacco product, ON OR OFF DUTY, as a condition of employment. In other words, if any policeman or firefighter smokes a cigar at HOME, he can be fired! Now, I ask you, how exactly is this draconian law to be enforced? Will they post it at the schools and encourage the children of county employees to turn in their parents if the see them smoking a cigar? Whether you smoke or not, this is SCARY stuff, my friends! I DO NOT smoke, nor do most people I know, but this is a fundamental infringement of all our liberty. Don't forget that totalitarian states have acheived their ends not by instituting their nefarious policies all at once, but rather by incrementally removing the rights of disaffected and unpopular groups little by little so that the populace just gets used to the gradual slipping away of rights. Once the totalitarians get around to removing rights from everyone, it's too late - precedent has already been established and most people have already been lulled to sleep.

Watcher: Correcting my mistake -- I believe Ditka is now coaching at New Orleans.

Watcher: Correcting my mistake -- I believe Ditka is now coaching at New Orleans.

Hurricane Linda was a non-event everywhere except The Wedge today. A savage swell whipped up in the last dying remnants of the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the eastern pacific, combined with high tide to form 30 foot breakers that crashed like the sound of artillery. The tide peaked at 7pm just as the sun dropped below the horizon creating a world of salt spray and orange foam. The steady pounding seemed to stir inside a long forgotten, evolutionary understanding; a liquid remembrance of whence we rose and will ultimately return.

A crowd 5000 strong gathered along the beach on the tip of the Balboa Peninsula to witness the only fury Linda managed to throw our way. The water was filled with about 40 or so intrepid, or just plain stupid folks on surfboards, bodyboards, or just skin. The thunder of the waves crashing against the half mile long stone jetty mixed with the roars of approval from the crowd as surfers either managed hair raising rides or spectacular wipe outs; there was no in between.

The mood was like a championship sporting event as we all rooted for our favorites. I got a good sized group of us making quick one dollar bets on whether our boy would catch the next one, and would he ride it through, or nose down to be buried under tons of sea. We gave affectionate nicknames to our favorites: there was Baldy, Fin Boy, Belly Man, Slick Point, Red Ass, Fool, Bing Bong, and other absurd but somehow fitting monikers, as they challenged waves high enough to completely cover the 20 foot high jetty. The raucous gamblers would shout and whoop and curse as their champions disappeared beneath the waves, only to shoot out of the curl at the last moment, or disappear under the foam causing a collective holding of the breath until, one by one, heads would pop up, gasping for air.

I had last seen waves of this sort back in the Seventies when I was young and just foolish enough to be convinced that these waves hold no harm. I found myself longing to buy or borrow a decade of life back, if only for an hour or two. The urge to throw off my shirt and dive in was just shy of suicide, but those days had passed. I find my thrills in the markets these days which is, I realized, the intellectual equivalent of the spectacle I was viewing. I too ride the waves of a ever changing and occasionally stormy markets, always looking for the right spot to bail before the wave cashes in on my head.

By 8 o'clock it had grown too dark to see. I silently walked through the deep sand back to my car. I would live nowhere else but here, today, and now.

Hurricane Linda was a non-event everywhere except The Wedge today. A savage swell whipped up in the last dying remnants of the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the eastern pacific, combined with high tide to form 30 foot breakers that crashed like the sound of artillery. The tide peaked at 7pm just as the sun dropped below the horizon creating a world of salt spray and orange foam. The steady pounding seemed to stir inside a long forgotten, evolutionary understanding; a liquid remembrance of whence we rose and will ultimately return.

A crowd 5000 strong gathered along the beach on the tip of the Balboa Peninsula to witness the only fury Linda managed to throw our way. The water was filled with about 40 or so intrepid, or just plain stupid folks on surfboards, bodyboards, or just skin. The thunder of the waves crashing against the half mile long stone jetty mixed with the roars of approval from the crowd as surfers either managed hair raising rides or spectacular wipe outs; there was no in between.

The mood was like a championship sporting event as we all rooted for our favorites. I got a good sized group of us making quick one dollar bets on whether our boy would catch the next one, and would he ride it through, or nose down to be buried under tons of sea. We gave affectionate nicknames to our favorites: there was Baldy, Fin Boy, Belly Man, Slick Point, Red Ass, Fool, Bing Bong, and other absurd but somehow fitting monikers, as they challenged waves high enough to completely cover the 20 foot high jetty. The raucous gamblers would shout and whoop and curse as their champions disappeared beneath the waves, only to shoot out of the curl at the last moment, or disappear under the foam causing a collective holding of the breath until, one by one, heads would pop up, gasping for air.

I had last seen waves of this sort back in the Seventies when I was young and just foolish enough to be convinced that these waves hold no harm. I found myself longing to buy or borrow a decade of life back, if only for an hour or two. The urge to throw off my shirt and dive in was just shy of suicide, but those days had passed. I find my thrills in the markets these days which is, I realized, the intellectual equivalent of the spectacle I was viewing. I too ride the waves of a ever changing and occasionally stormy markets, always looking for the right spot to bail before the wave cashes in on my head.

By 8 o'clock it had grown too dark to see. I silently walked through the deep sand back to my car. I would live nowhere else but here, today, and now.

Dec. gold down .70 @ 3-2-4.....Puetz: Moon lookin fuller....and shame on you for not knowin who Mike Ditka coached for....

Dec. gold down .70 @ 3-2-4.....Puetz: Moon lookin fuller....and shame on you for not knowin who Mike Ditka coached for....

goldilocks@aquarius

Good evening yourself. Nice to have a bit of civility back to the daily recordings. I'll take a stab at your questions if you'd like ( if not, just scroll on by ... )

#1 Y2K using your suggested A0 or 0A ... Actually, you're not too far off the mark without possibly knowing it. As you have noticed, the problem is with the 00 in the year fields. "0A" is used in the computer industry as the number "10" i.e. 01~09,0A,0B,0C,0D,0E,0F then 20 then 21 etc. so 11 would be "0B" ... the problem with this is that it's on a 16 base rather than a 10 base as the calendar was created. It works wonderfully in computers but unfortunately, calendars were created before the computer so we can't use a base 16 scenario to correct a base 10 problem. Sorry if that sounds complicated but the computer nerds will know exactly what I'm saying and the unwashed ( :- ) ) must trust.

#2: Why is someone buying up all the gold that's for sale and why? My theory ( and please take this as mine only ) is that the Chinese are collecting all the gold they can in order to be the only guy standing when all hell breaks loose. The last guy holding gold becomes the "standard" currency for the world. That to me is why the USA hasn't sold their gold and maybe never will. China has waited for an awful long time to become a world player, perhaps the next couple of years will be pivotal in the history of mankind and it's use of money as power.

#3 Consequences of a worldwide collapse.... Kiss you butt goodbye for awhile. Cash will be king. I see the Gold stocks going down with the regular stocks if it all crashes but they would seem to have the best chance of a quick recovery after the fall. Seems like there always is a straw that causes these dreadful things doesn't it!

#4 Can the USA survive... Sure, If they don't, then the whole world economy will collapse with it. It must ( since it's the "standard" for business priving and transactions ) . Without it, then the world economies are all in the same boat and sinking fast. We've often said here that the King has no clothes. Well if the king "USA" gets nude, then the whole world will be running naked also. There's just too much riding on the USA dollar to let it fall to the level you're thinking of. THEY JUST WON'T LET IT HAPPEN ! Laws will be passed, Gold will be confiscated etc. before they'll let it drop that bad. They will do something....

Hope that helps ...

TTFN

PUETZ:..Steve, you know, the Dow is only a mere 141 pts away from the Oldman's 7580 bail-out figure. It could happen tomorrow. I wonder how many other technicians have that same level in mind? You could be right. .....I wouldn't know; ( I am so smart that I shorted coffee just before it went thru the roof...was my wife upset... ) . My motto now is: Hope for the best; but prepare for the worst.

goldilocks@aquarius

Good evening yourself. Nice to have a bit of civility back to the daily recordings. I'll take a stab at your questions if you'd like ( if not, just scroll on by ... )

#1 Y2K using your suggested A0 or 0A ... Actually, you're not too far off the mark without possibly knowing it. As you have noticed, the problem is with the 00 in the year fields. "0A" is used in the computer industry as the number "10" i.e. 01~09,0A,0B,0C,0D,0E,0F then 20 then 21 etc. so 11 would be "0B" ... the problem with this is that it's on a 16 base rather than a 10 base as the calendar was created. It works wonderfully in computers but unfortunately, calendars were created before the computer so we can't use a base 16 scenario to correct a base 10 problem. Sorry if that sounds complicated but the computer nerds will know exactly what I'm saying and the unwashed ( :- ) ) must trust.

#2: Why is someone buying up all the gold that's for sale and why? My theory ( and please take this as mine only ) is that the Chinese are collecting all the gold they can in order to be the only guy standing when all hell breaks loose. The last guy holding gold becomes the "standard" currency for the world. That to me is why the USA hasn't sold their gold and maybe never will. China has waited for an awful long time to become a world player, perhaps the next couple of years will be pivotal in the history of mankind and it's use of money as power.

#3 Consequences of a worldwide collapse.... Kiss you butt goodbye for awhile. Cash will be king. I see the Gold stocks going down with the regular stocks if it all crashes but they would seem to have the best chance of a quick recovery after the fall. Seems like there always is a straw that causes these dreadful things doesn't it!

#4 Can the USA survive... Sure, If they don't, then the whole world economy will collapse with it. It must ( since it's the "standard" for business priving and transactions ) . Without it, then the world economies are all in the same boat and sinking fast. We've often said here that the King has no clothes. Well if the king "USA" gets nude, then the whole world will be running naked also. There's just too much riding on the USA dollar to let it fall to the level you're thinking of. THEY JUST WON'T LET IT HAPPEN ! Laws will be passed, Gold will be confiscated etc. before they'll let it drop that bad. They will do something....

Hope that helps ...

TTFN

PUETZ:..Steve, you know, the Dow is only a mere 141 pts away from the Oldman's 7580 bail-out figure. It could happen tomorrow. I wonder how many other technicians have that same level in mind? You could be right. .....I wouldn't know; ( I am so smart that I shorted coffee just before it went thru the roof...was my wife upset... ) . My motto now is: Hope for the best; but prepare for the worst.

I took my wife to see "mean" Gene Fodor the Jesu playin' machine...I've never seen him play before but, he can imho make that fiddle cry. My wife ( raised in Hawaii so has never even heard any live strings ) was blown away. A Dr. Sloan came over from LA and brought another Jesu ( sp? ) and a very fine sounding Strad...yes three for the price of one. He did a bunch of Paganinni ( wild ) . Thanks for the tip...I owe you one. BTW he is in the process of building a house here so we should get to hear more...he is trying to organize an international festval...

I took my wife to see "mean" Gene Fodor the Jesu playin' machine...I've never seen him play before but, he can imho make that fiddle cry. My wife ( raised in Hawaii so has never even heard any live strings ) was blown away. A Dr. Sloan came over from LA and brought another Jesu ( sp? ) and a very fine sounding Strad...yes three for the price of one. He did a bunch of Paganinni ( wild ) . Thanks for the tip...I owe you one. BTW he is in the process of building a house here so we should get to hear more...he is trying to organize an international festval...

RJ:.....a savage swell??

RJ:.....a savage swell??

RJ ( 00:39 ) Living on the opposite ocean,I enjoyed reading about your waves +ocean.....WE are still getting swells left over from hurricane Erika,which passsed by here last week.....Great for seakayaking but "the exit" can be a little tense....with the rocky shore and all....Once you are "out there" it is great!!....couldn't imagine living away from the ocean!....just wish the dead seal would wash away...or the birds would do a quicker job of it...

RJ ( 00:39 ) Living on the opposite ocean,I enjoyed reading about your waves +ocean.....WE are still getting swells left over from hurricane Erika,which passsed by here last week.....Great for seakayaking but "the exit" can be a little tense....with the rocky shore and all....Once you are "out there" it is great!!....couldn't imagine living away from the ocean!....just wish the dead seal would wash away...or the birds would do a quicker job of it...

Good night all....it's late on the "far east" coast....2 AM here but 2;30 AM in Newfoundland....gotta love those "Newfies"....things are differen't on "the rock"....Panda: cheer up...ya got company!..Tort:where are YOU?

Good night all....it's late on the "far east" coast....2 AM here but 2;30 AM in Newfoundland....gotta love those "Newfies"....things are differen't on "the rock"....Panda: cheer up...ya got company!..Tort:where are YOU?

Right now on the Discovery chanel, a special on gold, looks preety interesting.

Right now on the Discovery chanel, a special on gold, looks preety interesting.

WATCHER: What is the local ( hawaiian ) prognosis as per El Nino this winter? My wife and I were just saying this evening that we hoped Hawaii, ( one of our favorite places ) would not be damaged.

WATCHER: Glad you enjoyed it. He plays well. I know Bill Sloan very well and he's brought that Del Jesu and Strad over to my house. We played the Bach Double ( for fun ) together. I've got a photo of my couch with two Strads, one Del Jesu, and a fine Guadanini. At the time, about 12 million dollars worth! He also wanted to buy the house next door but it didn't work out. Too bad, he's a sweetheart. Anyway, give Gene my best if you see him again. Well, I'm under the weather tonight and it's time to put the kids to bed. Signing off...

Tuesday, September 16, 1997

Mutual funds take asset hit

By SUSAN HEINRICH
Mutual Funds Reporter The Financial Post

Falling markets around the world wiped more than $3.42 billion from mutual funds during the month of August -- the first drop in net assets in 12 months and the biggest dollar drop the Canadian industry has ever seen.

Fund assets fell 1.3% to $269.73 billion at the end of August from a record high of $273.15 billion at the end of July, the Investment Funds Institute of Canada said yesterday. And that retreat in assets came despite $3.2 billion of net new sales of mutual funds in the month.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/FP/sep16_mutualfund.html



Although the drop in assets may seem dramatic, "in percentage terms 1.3% is not really significant," said Kaszel. "Given the
fact the industry's assets are so high, you're [dealing with] huge sums of money. [But] "there's no cause for concern."

TED: Glad you got your ISP up and running. Why don't you buy that thing and make it fly?FRONT: As a former king, what do you foresee in next 3 wks?STRAD: We must be from different worlds, but I enjoy your posts. Encore.

6pak and DONALD: Keep 'em coming. And, thanks, for all your research.

Tuesday, September 16, 1997
OSC slaps Altamira's wrist over Dorset
By DAN WESTELL
The Financial Post

The company was reprimanded, agreed to implement certain changes in the way it makes and monitors trades, and will pay the Ontario government $75,000 to cover the OSC's costs in a settlement negotiated between the company and OSC staff, and approved by a panel of two commissioners.

The settlement said OSC staff agreed "it was not Altamira's intention to mislead or manipulate the market for Dorset shares." OSC lawyer David Hausman described Altamira's actions as "bad trading practices."
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/FP/sep16_oscslapsal.html

El Nino does crazy things here...last one brought a four month drought. This summer was extremely hot for Kona. We generally rely on lows from up north coming through sporadically in the winter to bring rain. El Nino keeps the rain away in winter...we'll see this time around. I think El Nino lasts longer here because we get it sooner and it leaves later.

Duh, re your 00:00 ( not IQ, the TIME... ) SSC closed at 7/8 today. Up 1/16 from Friday. Up 1/8 from Tursday. Up 3/16 from Wednesday. Up 15% to 20+ % from the two days I posted "buy" signals... DUH....

WATCHER: Thanks, and good luck! ....Love that Kona coffee!

00:39, How poetic, but why not be out there still with the full MOON on the waves. With that Southern CA smog it'd look like BLOOD on the moon, on waves from a Monsoon, on a sandy beach dune, we sing a sad tune, like a cry from a Loon, of our youth passed too soon....

Donald & nomercy are on the day shift eh! : ) : ) : )

Strad re your 00:25. I totally agree. I hate smoking and second hand smoke, but I hate laws restricting smokers even more. It's almost as bad as "censorship" in my view. The camels nose is in the tent, how far will we let it go? Here in CA, the state legislature just recessed, allowing a bill to stay in place that will revoke the last public bastion of smokers. Card rooms and bars. I play a lot of poker, so I won't miss the smoke at Bay 101, but I WILL miss the loss of freedom that my fellow smoking card players have to now endure. What next, steak Nazi's? Twinkie police? Like I said before, every time you applaud loss of freedom, you get a step closer to a fascistic govt. that can confiscate your gold.

Strad: I picked up the same story on the radio this morning. Isn't it just appalling that so few recognize the import of stories such as that? The issue is always presented to the public as a noble exercise in prudent administration, when in reality it's merely the extension of raw power.

As you pointed out, the issue is not tobacco and its impact on personal and public health; the issue is ALWAYS at all times and all places, personal freedom and the absolute right of an individual to go to hell in a manner of his own choosing.

In this instance, as in so many others, there is no harm being done to the general public. The alleged reason for arresting personal choice was one of "health care savings". Specious reasoning, proven false. A study done in Canada, reportedly, found that smokers present a smaller burden on the system because they expire more quickly and tend not to linger in the process of final exit, as do those in the bottled water and white wine set.

At the same time, it should be recognized that the "Boobus Americanus"'s favorite pastime is reforming the bad habits of his neighbors. It is his natural inclination and one which he takes great delight in. It is always aided and abetted by well meaning individuals who do not share the shortcomings of those in the, outcast, group du jour. The politicians zealously pile on to curry favor with those in the popular mainstream and excess is inevitably the result. All of us must be wary of following popular expressions of outrage at the mention someones elses personal likes and dislikes. The law is intended to take care of those on the margins and protect the public from personal behavior. We should have the common decency to leave our neighbors completely the hell alone. It is, after all, the civilized thing to do.

Our inability as a people to countenance those who are different has been evident on this site for the past several weeks. Those who, instantly, wish to punish others who think differently or speak differently are, a public menace. The expressions may be different but the mechanism is the same. Banish those who irritate us? How silly and infantile. How ultimately debilitating to our personal freedom. It is a dangerous mindset. One which a free people cannot ever allow free rein. And yet we have. How sad.

In the end, it is much better for all of us to engage in personal examination a bit more and refrain from presenting ourselves to the world as an irritated 'free nerve ending'.

Ultimately, it's the prevailing attitude that is important. Never the issue at hand.

Kona coffee is now selling wholesale ( if you can find it ) for over twice what it went for retail three years ago. Green bean has gone from $5/lb. to $$14/lb.=$26-30 roasted on the mainland. We drink Columbian until our neighbor harvests...he's a decendant of Japanese contract laborer's...also the most honest man I've ever met, next to my Dad...anyway, he always gives us a huge bag of Kona beans...You'll notice the change when I'm posting 24 hours a day! Now, if only gold will do what coffee did...Anybody ready for Goldbucks...there could be one on every corner!

PRESTON POWER

The ultimate Ottawa 'outsider' moves in

But while that would remove one of the stumbling blocks to a Reform-Tory merger, other sources of friction remain. The two parties differ on arguably the most fundamental of all issues--Quebec's place in the federation. Manning's harder line on Quebec is unacceptable to many Tories in Central Canada. And Reform's western populism, with its healthy dose of anger against Ontario's and Quebec's political and economic power, does not mix easily with conservatism in Central Canada, where social and economic elites abound--and where many voters are clearly uncomfortable with Reform's more extremist image.
http://www.canoe.ca/macleans/newsroom092297/cov1092297.html

I ment to post to Savage, not use his name...just call me confused...

LGB ( 01:40 ) : A post I can agree with, unequivocally.

Earl: G'day, we have Boobus Americanus in NZ, where said BA is responsible for the Tall Poppy Syndrome - the poppy that stands above the rest in cut. In Japan, the same syndrome is the Nail that sticks out, it gets hammered down.

WATCHER:....that's OK. Appreciate your response!

.......'Nite All.

the Tall Poppy Syndrome - the poppy that stands above the rest *gets* cut down.

Apo loggies ;- ) I have twice asked this question no replies, would any one of you kindly advise where I can find the answer to a question I had about deferred settlement on gold trades? I will not post it again, unwanting to raise the ire of others but I posted the question Sunday 14 Sept 05:51.
The question may be stupid, I believe ( almost ) the only stupid question is the one your don't ask. :- )

Aurator: you asked for a reference for my doubting away Kondrateiff's theories. Well sorry, what I read was a small article about 10 years ago in the Globe and Mail Report on Business Magazine. If I find that I filed it then I'll give the exact reference someday. I was interested in Kondrateiff, but still it made sense to me that his theories did not stand up to scrutiny. He din't intend to be taken too literally, like at exactly 52 years, but all the same predicting the broad market trends has got to be very difficult or else we would all have too much money, or something like that etc. :- ) But like I said broad long term market cycles of course occur, they don't repeat themselves but they may rhyme, ( like M. Twain said ) . What are juggler and kitchen cycles??

The crash scenario is right on track. A big down day today in the S&P ( shall we call it the Kodak-led crash? ) will put the red line nicely between the black and blue. Make sure you get a picture of it!! PS--use Fuji film! It's 20% cheaper.

http://nxn.netgate.net/images/stocks/crashes.html

For those who missed it--Steven Williams' chart comparison of crashes.

http://home.sprynet.com/sprynet/fiendbea/stevewil.htm

As the world sleeps. Weather in Canberra partly cloudy with scattered showers. Temp 15 degrees, Ted ( x9/5+32 ) . Nearly a full moon--but I can't see it. My dogs have been howling,though! My two rottweilers always warn me of impending earthquakes, stock market crashes etc. They are very nervous tonight!!

Hey gringo--wanna buy some coke? cheap!!!

Forgot to paste, you dope!!

http://www.smh.com.au:80/daily/content/970916/business/business8.html

Paths Thank you for your reply re Kondratief cycles.

Usually the Kondratief is described as a cycle of 55 +/- 5 years. %From memory%, Kondratrief was a Russian economist who was asked by Stalin ( in early? 1930's ) to demonstrate that free market capitalist economies were inherently short-lived.

Kondratief looked at wheat prices in Russia back to the 15thCentury, ( this research was later extended back to the 12th century in England ) . He found a cyclic nature of commodity pricing, about 55 =/-5 years. His patron, Stalin was not so pleased, so exciled Kondratieff to the infamous salt mines in Siberia where he died.
After WWII and the allies occupied Moscow, Kondratieff's original papers were taken and lost. They were later re-discovered in a forgotten vault. I do not think they were published in English until the late 50's.
Such a cycle is useful for inter-generational business planning, though not much else.
The Kitchen cycle is a cycle of 39 months based on measurements of business inventory, and the Juglar Cycle, of 9 years based on ( investment in plant and equipment ) .[Told you I was a fundy Mike Sheller]
The interesting thing is that there are times when the nodes of all three cycles coincide, both on the up and the down.
It was reading about this phenomena, together with the rather broad brush interpretation ( based on Pritchard's "The Downwave" ) of the coincidence of these nodes that I sold my position in early 87, thereby avoiding serious damage. It also led me to believe I was very smart, I learnt another lesson in hubris about 5 years later in the gold market.

Please post any refutation to established dogma, iconoclasts like reason rather than emotion eh? Which is why I jumped on your post looking for sources.

aurator ;- )

NICK, NICK, heh is everyone is Australia called Nick?

Have we got this place to ourselves?

We can raise some antipodean mayhem?


NICK NICK how come you forgot about the NZ bit of ANZAC at Galipoli?
It was a defining moment in antipodean history. In New Zealand, not just Australia, it meant the end of the Imperial domination of the Commonwealth the greatest empire ( and the longest ) at that time on the planet. Colonial soldiers from NZ & Australia were casually thrown away as cannon fodder.
As a first generational NZ'er, can't say I myself identify so deeply, none of my family were at Galipoli. On Anzac day I always feel the pain of my friends and families in their remembrance of their relatives.
At that time my family was still Guernsey. My grandfather enlisted on the day of the outbreak of WWI along with his four brothers. Three months later, he was the only one alive.
Our American friends rarely are familiar with such stories.

Aurator--just heard on the news that a 14 year old New Zealander has just written a computer program to solve the world's Y2k problems. It is not being released until worldwide patents are in place. If you see anything in the N.Z. press about this, would you please post it.

Also read in one of my investment newsletters today that "gold" was a dirty word!!! I would like to apologize most humbly to all Kitcoites as I try my best to maintain a sense of propriety on this site. I must confess that I have used four letter words on this site before and I will try to mend my ways. From now on it will be--GO Gxxx!!!!!

Aurator--it appears that all the Yanks and Canucks are getting their beauty sleep. Isn't it nice of Bart to provide us with a site to practice our typing, mental ramblings etc.. Once again, I really enjoyed your postings the other night. The more prudish in the audience may have been slightly offended. God help them if they ever come down under and go to a pub and have a "few" beers with Aussies/Kiwis!!! The last time I visited your beautiful country, the missus and I were in a typical small town Kiwi pub one night--closing time rolled around ( remember those days? ) and the local constabulary closed the doors and said in a very loud voice "Who's shout is it?". We all grogged on 'till the wee hours of the morning and finally staggered out to our accomodation. The Kiwis have got to be the friendliest people on the face of the earth ( after the Aussies ) . But shhhhhhhh--don't tell anyone how good we've got it down here. They might all wanna come down and ruin it for us. Kiwis will literally give you the shirts off their backs!! I know. I saw a young bloke chatting up a shapely young lass at the bar. He said "I like your tee shirt--let's trade"--which of course they proceeded to do on the spot!! One of my best memories of New Zealand. Made my day!! Sorry this doesn't have much to do with gxxx, but don't worry--Donald will be up soon to continue our education!!

Little known facts about Gold: You are my hero.
Didyouknow the etymology of the word Trivia? Break it down, Tri, as in triangle, tripod and triffid, "3", Via as in Via Appia, Via~duct, "Road". Three Roads. Where 3 roads met, the Romans used to post the news.
auradictionaryator :-]

GOLDILOCKS: First the easy question. Most database programs have a "date field" that require a particular entry format. The ones that I am familiar with would not accept an alpha character.

Can the U.S. survive a financial collapse? That is a tough one. First, we are facing a world problem. Using the dollar as a reserve currency has entangled every country in our domestic debt woes. If the collapse happens soon enough we can survive in some form. I hope it is democratic but I fear the worst. Recent history shows a trend of tribalization, breaking up governmental structures into smaller units. Russia and Yugoslovia are two prime examples. We see the same trend in corporate structures as conglomerates unwind into more manageable structures. Trends in motion tend to stay in motion so it would not surprise me if the U.S. decided, over the next several generations, to do the same. At the very least it seems certain that big federal government will be downsized, just as corporate America has done. A Depression is an absolute certainty. This Depression is likely to last longer than the last. Depressions are terrible things but they also have the quality of doing the things that politicians cannot bring themselves to do. After it is over we will be better off; but it takes many years to realize that what happened was for the better.

Japan's August Bankruptcies Rose 14.27% on Year

Japanese corporate bankruptcies rose for the eighth straight month in August, led by construction
companies filing for protection from creditors, said Tokyo Shoko Research, a private research
institute. Bankruptcies rose 14.27 percent in August from a year earlier to 1,289 cases, the institute
said. Bankruptcies will continue rising this year, particularly in the construction industry, where
companies are succumbing to credit problems on the back of slumping sales, economists said.

Bookmark this one--web sites of some of you favorite gxxx shares.

http://www.yahoo.com/Business_and_Economy/Companies/Mining_and_Mineral_Exploration/Precious_Metals_Diamonds/Gold/

( Andrew Card is the head auto industry lobbyist. Notice the spin doctor at work with the reference to "concern over the weak yen" rather than the truth which is concern over the strength of the dollar. )
Mr. Card will brief the media and respond to questions concerning the status of automotive trade
with the nations of South Korea and Japan. America's Car Companies, Chrysler Corporation,
Ford Motor Company, and General Motors Corporation, have asked the Clinton administration's
U.S. Trade Representative to cite the trade practices of South Korea under the U.S. ``Super 301''
unfair trade practice law. U.S. automakers also have requested that Japan be added to the ``watch
list'' under ``Super 301'' and continue to be concerned about the effects of the weak yen.

Nick, again, thanks for your appreciation. Sometimes I wonder if my words are understood or considered by our northern brethren, other times i just don't care.

I am sure that oldman understands what is really happening. Many wise words from you oldman, much of what you say I know as truth oldman. I have travelled extensively in East & West, Racism is merely a liberal/democrat/freedom/greeco-romanian Westminster construct. If I was born an Afghani, I may like you, but I'd pity you for not being born a Pathan.

Nick. Like you said, most NZ'ers will give you the shirt off their back, and then apologise if it is not clean. But if you do not understand where that gift comes from, you'll never get the time of day again.

Nick, missed the fingers emoticon. plse repeat ( aka the "Bird" ) Why can't you aussies just use your thumb to hitch-hike? :- )

As it is rather quiet this evening ( morning ) I am going to re-post one of my favorites. My thanks to the original poster.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/blue_skys.html

Blue skies smilin' at me
Nothin' but blue skies do I see
Blue birds singin' a song
Nothin' but blue birds all day long

Bookmark this one--you will never regret it!!

I've been taking notes the past few days and as Oldman said "this is a dangerous time,IMO...I would not suggest anyone trade stocks from the long side unless you are sitting in front of a monitor.." so I quit work to sit in front of my monitor....Nick ( can't remember which Nick ) said NEVER hold a stock if it goes agin you...so as most of my stocks went down today, I sold them. Now I have no job and no shares. I'll wait for my next lesson.

Nick that 12 yr old NZ story has been pursued here today. Am a bit skeptical. Still, the country that gave the world ( amongst others ) the safety pin, the stamp machine, the first universal VOTE FOR WOMEN, atom splitting, Everest Climbing and hot water showers in the trenches of WWI may yet suprise the rest of the world.


PS is it true that an Australian invented velcro because the sheep were getting frightened at the sound of a zip? :- ) ) ) )

Aurator--got tired of all the whining, moaning and groaning about obnoxious posters, so I simply said to "give em the finger--right index on mouse". See my post of Mon. Sep't. 15th--04:19..

"The stock market will crash because it must"
http://www.herring.com:80/mag/issue46/rap.html

The globalized economy is a menace.
http://www.afr.com.au:80/content/970916/world/world3.html

Well Men, Boys, and wimps..... ( you know who you are ) .....
I'm BIG Beaver - you've met my son Beaver awhile back.

This market still has further to ramble on... It's my remarkable insight that leads me to this conclusion! BUT... It won't last, you see. You can bet yer britches on that! It's full steam ahead for the US economy, ass why.

What do ya get with full emloyment and public sentiment behind the recent labor strikes with declining profits by small caps from no productivity gains? Wage increases and INFLATION! The Fed will do everything within its power to keep the stock market from collapsing. As we are all aware, the stock market has become the focus of our country, including the cab drivers, shoe shine boys, LGBs, and Cherokees of the world. It's too important for our political leaders to ignore it. When the inevitable 10% correction takes place, the fed will be watching closely ready to monetize the debt to support our bond market and inject more currency into the banks to keep the correction in check. This has been already taking place. As a result the stock market will continue along in a loooonnnnnggggggg drawn out bear market over the next two years or so. The economy in the mean time will hurdle ahead and inflation will rise significantly. Gold and real estate will be the places to be.

Until next time......

The BIG Beaver at Beaver's Den

Watching Big Brother
In George Orwell's fictional version of the future, 1984, Big
Brother had more control over people's lives than even the
real-world totalitarian governments of Hitler and Stalin. A key
part of Orwell's vision was that Big Brother would use
technology to control us. This view cannot be completely
dismissed. Anyone who fails to report on his federal income tax
form 1040 a payment for which he has received a form 1099 is
foolish--even with its clunky old computers, the IRS is thought
to have achieved a greater than 99 percent matching of 1099s
and 1040s.

But a delicious irony is emerging that Orwell never conceived of:
the computer revolution allows citizens to monitor, prod, and
undercut the government. We can say, with only slight
exaggeration, that we are using technology to control Big
Brother. In February 1994, for example, when a few
home-schoolers learned of a provision in a bill before Congress
that would have required parents to be certified before teaching
their children, they used phones, faxes, and email to alert their
allies. In just over a week, members of Congress received more
than 1 million calls telling them to back off. They quickly did.
"We have had enough democracy for a while," said one
exhausted congressional aide.

Similarly, in September 1994, when Congress added a provision
to a lobbying bill that would have imposed tough restrictions on
grassroots groups, a few members of such groups found out
about it. Mainly via faxes, they alerted sympathizers--hosts of
talk shows, trade associations, and other leaders around the
country. The next week, the bill--which, in a previous version,
had passed the House by a vote of 315 to 100 and the Senate
by 95 to 4--was filibustered to death in the Senate. The
computer revolution is allowing opponents of greater
government control to learn of Big Brother's plans more quickly
and to threaten Big Brother's little siblings.

Find the money
"The Disappearing Taxpayer," reads the cover type of a recent
issue of The Economist. The two related articles inside predict
that the growth of electronic commerce will hamper the
government's ability to collect taxes. And taxes are the lifeblood
of politicians. If governments can't keep their revenues high, they
have less to spend on hounding us from cradle to grave. But
what is a government to do when people can buy goods over
the Internet and evade taxes or, at least, buy the goods from a
company in the least-taxed political entity?

Computers have increased productivity, made it easier to start
your own business, and made it harder for government to
control you. They will do more of all three in the near future. Not
bad for a product for which a former IBM chairman predicted
worldwide demand of only five.

Unlucky Josephine--You are the luckiest person on the planet!! There will ALWAYS be more opportunities to buy shares. Hopefully you use a discount broker and NEVER take his advice. This makes the buying and selling costs of no real consequence to the final outcome. If I am wrong and your shares zoom UP--then you have missed out on an opportunity. If I am right and shares are a LOT cheaper in a year or two-- you have saved a lot of money!! This has been a VERY long and disproportionate bull. ALL good things come to an end. Josephine, have you ever been in a movie theater in a panic situation? I have!! You don't want to see what happens when everyone tries to exit at the same time ( someone threw a Molotov cocktail into the theater ) . I am very lucky to be alive. I am thankful for every extra day on this planet. You may be jobless and shareless, but you are alive, and hopefully healthy. Count your blessings. Put your money into something safe ( ask Others on this site what that would be ) , as I won't advise you there. Even if there is no panic in the theater, being nibbled to death by guppies is probably not much better. Sorry to be so prosaic but it is getting late here.

"You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, know when to run". Josephine, it is time to run and you have done the right thing. Cheers from "down under". Nick xxx

Nick, thanks, I read your post and agreed, though you might have given us some new emoticons, here are a couple of suggestions"


__!__ as the finger, ( aka the "Bird" )


I believe in free speach, and will defend anyone's right to speak unmitigating cr*p, this is because I know that the greatest innovations must come, ipso facto, from unmitigating cr*p. From the most obnoxious, antisocial extremes of ''polite society'' comes novelty.

I "invented" a new emoticon yesterday to deal with unmitigated cr*p, ( because of posters here ) it means to turn a deaf ear, it is

 ( ** ) 

I is listening, but I don't care

Well, when I typed the new *deaf ear* emoticon it looked good on my Mac, two not-equal signs on each side of a bracket. Looks like cr*p after interpretation by Gates. Microsoft is cr*p.

AURATOR: Dr. K must have had something on the ball, he was thrown in the clink. Typical. Nice impromptu review of the K-Wave. The phenomenon suffers its aberrations and distortions, along with all the other background elements, philosophies, traditions of human life. But it is indeed usually discernible in its workings to the careful observer. The social expressions of the various segments of the wave are often fascinating. We should be somewhere into the "trough" of this kurrent k-wave, so I suppose that the fact that no nation is kurrently on gold is allowing kontinuing kronic inflation to kite kurrencies and keep the world from kollapsing.
Unless of kourse, things kave in today because of the eklipse.

I've been exposed. Not a peep out a gold when European CRB gold sale rumour announsed. Could be a definative bottom here. If not it looks
like we might have to dack gold.

Nick ( ers ) --just what we needed--another Nick on this site. I've been hearing and reading all week about CB gold sales. I don't know if they are really happening, but if that is so --then just look at how well the price of gold is holding up!!! SOMEONE is buying the stuff!! Chinese perhaps??--to cement their position as the financial center of the 21st century? Who knows -- could be rumors by those whom for their own nefarious reasons want to keep the price of gold in check. All I know is --the price of gold has so far refused to tank!! It may still go down, but until that happens I will hold my fire. I tell you what--if gold does go down further from here,it will be the sale of the century and I for one will be in there buying!!!

Good morning Mike. If your still there could you please post eclipse times?
Thanks.

Mike Sheller, Mornin' it is almost midnight here, and I'm a little salty,, to taste..... I care.

Didn't Galileo recant?

Korrect, we are, akkording to Kondratieff, in the trough. Life sure is mizzerable.

I know Who Cares agrees :-}}

Agree Nick. I've seen the chinese use gold by the kilo to tart up
their houses. One guy lined his ceiling with 10 kilograms of gold.
Gold has been fused to their psyche.

Big Beaver: I was listening to CNBC last week and they had an expert commenting on how the efficiency of business has improved! That's the reason for the continued attraction to investing in these companies. How can you say the opposite? By the way, I'm a former cab driver and since investing in the stock market two years ago, a very RICH one!!!

Click go the shears boys, Nick Nick Nick,

Make it easy fer us. Someone please change de handle yaaa????

I might change my name to *salty* if you'se fellas think ya kan drink me under the table

aurator ////for now

Donald and all; are you all posting from the new frames site? Each time I try to access from Bart's Email address,it sends me to the old posting site. I've deleted all old cookies, history, etc..., what am i doing wrong? My browser is the beta MS Internet Explorer 4.0

Major L.L.B. Angas: " The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented. Banks can in fact inflate, mint and unmint the modern ledger-entry currency."

Thomas Jefferson ( letter to Elbridge Gerry, Jan. 26, 1779 ) : "Banking
establishments are more dangerous than standing armies."

President James A. Garfield: "Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce."

Thomas Jefferson: " If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them ( around the banks ) , will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

Amazing some of these indivduals lived 200 years ago and spoke with such foresight about our present day paper dilemma. Just food for thought!!

Donald and all; are you all posting from the new frames site? Each time I try to access from Bart's Email address,it sends me to the old posting site. I've deleted all old cookies, history, etc..., what am i doing wrong? My browser is the beta MS Internet Explorer 4.0

Donald and all; are you all posting from the new frames site? Each time I try to access from Bart's Email address,it sends me to the old posting site. I've deleted all old cookies, history, etc..., what am i doing wrong? My browser is the beta MS Internet Explorer 4.0

Are YOU there???...when I hit submit I get nothin....CPI in ten minutes with expectations @ up 0.3%...Weather: 68 and sunny....

Rise and Shine, all. It's CRASH DAY!!

Also going to be an eclipse of the moon in Canberra tonight. Hope I can last 'till 3am to see it.

BADGER: I am posting the old fashioned way.

Badger and All,

I am a Beta Tester with the new frame version.

Since the begining I gave my reports to Bart on both Netscape 4+, and Microsoft Internet Explorer 4+, operating quit diferently with the new frame version.
Put simply , Netscape Communicator 4 works perfectly..!

Internet Explorer 4+ Bart is still working on it.

I do not think you should use the new frame now with I.E.

I am sure Bart will post something on that in a near future.

All the best,

Oliver

Men, Boys and wimps... You know who you are....

Crab diver: Please forgive meh. I didn't realize you are RICH. A thousand pardons... may I please kiss your feet? Can you please give me some stock recos, trading strategies? - I'll even settle for a ride in your crab.

You see, see.... Americans are DEMANDING growth, see. They're all planning on being rich like you and a few others on this board who have let us all know on more than one occasion, see. You see, see.... righch now, we have soaring consumer confidence out there, here and everywhere, see... stock rallies, bond rallies, ego rallies, you name it, see... Faster economic growth makes unemployment go lower, see.... And when this happens, see.. there pagins to occur more and more labor union strikes, see... Usually the cab drivers, shoe shine boys, LGBs, and the Cherokees of the world are against this kind of thing, see... But the times are a changin', see...

Now cab driver, you are not only rich, but you're also right about the fact that the markets are more efficient than before, see... But there NOT more productive, see. See chere, see, productivity is sort of like your Employer's "Bang for His Buck," see. I think you see "The BIG Pitcher" now like your friend, "The BIG Beaver", see. Billy wants faster growth - faster growth wants even lower unemployment, see. Lower unemployment wants higher wages, see. Higher wages means the Employer gets no "Big Bang For His Buck", see, but only a little whimper, see. See, all you have to do is ask the CEOs of the small caps how productive they've been. They'll just whimper, see. Cause you and I both know, see, that they employ most the workers of this country, see. Now, the case for growth is not only political, see but you and I both know it's economic as well, see.
Now, throw in a little chaos, El Nino, Middle East tensions, and we may just get some more food and energy inflation, see.

See, the fed will continue to go for broke to maintain the course. They'll have to settle for the loooonnnnggg drawn out , excruciating bear market in equities to last approximatley 18 to 24 months, see...

Now cab driver - sell them stocks NOW!!!!! and buy some gold.....

Sincere Posters: As an exercise in disinformation detection please examine last nights postings. The noise to signal ratio is off the scale. Those intrested in disrupting this site have thrown more resources into the battle. Was it because the discussion of the Y2K problem is getting too close to the truth? Who would have the resources to fund this long running 24 hour operation?

CPI up 0.2% and the CORE rate up 0.1% ( both less than EXPECTED ) ...Industrial production # out in 45 minutes ( expected to be up 0.5% ) ....Bond movin on up...up 11 ticks

AMNESTY, and ALL: Ok, Amnesty, you asked for it. My ephemeris says that the Eclipse will occur today at 18:47 hours ( military time )
Greenwich Mean time. Compensate for your time zones mates! And keep your powder dry. The Moon will be at 23 Pisces, opposing the Sun at 23 Virgo. Folks with birthdays around 14/15 March, and of course today , watch for anything interesting in your life. Everyone will experience a distinct conflict of desires...one will be to work without ceasing, obsessed with petty details ( Virgo ) and the other will be to go off and take walk to smell the roses ( Pisces ) . I vote the roses! G'day all!

Leverage is the vehicle that pushes markets beyond prudent levels. Once bull market reverses, leverage is the catalyst for panic selling. Short-interest level & NYSE Seats price bearish:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/puetz911.html

TED Mon, and anyone else. go back to last bookmark; Automatic updating makes this one like treakklllllle, toffffeeee...... candeeee, what languish you speak??? It is slowwwww, but very sexy,,,

BART great Idea would really appreciate an option whether/not automatic update, plse. ie automatic update or on command


wat a site

wat a mess

aurator

Bart, a zillion thanks :-}

You know BIG BEAVER, I was an animal riots advocate as of this morning, but since the ANIMALS ARE RIOTING!!!!!!! - I now change my mind.

THANKS TO YOU I might ad!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Is there a mining type here who can give some insight on currency devaluations as they impact mining costs in various countries? What is the impact on labor, replacement parts, shipping equipment? Are those costs paid in local currencies? In general, do foreign currency devaluations help or hurt goldbugs? It was the Kodak situation today that set the spark to think about it.

Front @00:08 LOL :- ) )

TED -- I was just using the frames version of 'Kitco' and got to watch gold crash $3+ ....!!!!@!! Rally in bonds and stocks! Looks like no crash today folk.

Bart -- Can we post yet from the 'frames' version? BTW, It's really nice!

Can't read NO other comments....Is this the "new era" at Kitco???...Puetz: even though these are gov'ment numbers....they still are very bad #'s for your crash senario...S+P futures up 5.75....not too late ta buy some stox and join the party.....Comex: Gold down 1.10;silver down 3.2 cents; and PL down 3 dollars ( these are pre-CPI #'s )

Oliver; would really like your opinion on the better of the two: MS Int. Exp. 4.0 or NS 4.0. The last NS I had was the last of their 3+ and I thought it was pretty good,how do the new 4+'s stack up? You can E me if you've time badger@lcc.net

thanks

I see the water is quickly getting to be pretty shallow in the bay! Straining an ear for a distant roaring sound?

Mornin Panda!! can now read most recent comments....yeah, it looks like we will have a crash-UP in the Dow ....at least in the opening!...S+P futures now up 6.30....guess ( from your post ) that PM'S didn't like that CPI report!! God help em if we get a WEAK industrial production # in a half hour!! S+P futures up 6.75...7.0 ....AS Phil Rizzuto ( sp ) would say "holy cow".....

$PREM is up 1803, DJN relays fair market value of December spoos at +9.31 . We are now running DOUBLE that! Bonds up .68 point!

Mike buddy, help me out here - Can you do some sort of Astrological evaluation to help me understand what kind of lunatic beaver I'm dealing with here? I promise to drive up to New York and give you a ride anywhere you want to go even though I'm no longer a cab driver. I'm rich you know!

Mike Sheller I go for da smell the roses kinda day,
'night
Steve Puetz: The certainty you feel about your feelings, I sort of admire. It is just that i don believe no more, ya know :- ) )

...forecasted costs rising...oh oh..
WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - The number of government computer systems that need to be fixed or replaced before the year
2000 has jumped while the estimated cost has soared by $1 billion, the Clinton administration said Monday.
"We are sending a signal that is highly likely to get their attention," said Katzen, administrator of the Office of Information and
Regulatory Affairs in the White House's Office of Management and Budget.
Katzen also repeated a vow made in a speech by President Clinton last month -- "we are committed to making sure that these
systems are fixed."
The government will need to spend $3.8 billion fixing the problems, the report said, up from $2.8 billion estimated in a
previous report. Katzen said the cost would probably rise further but added, "It's not going to shoot off the wall."
On Capitol Hill, lawmakers charged the administration was failing to devote sufficient attention and resources to correcting the
problem.
http://www.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/COMPUTERS-MILLENNIUM.html

Hi y'all - Would you stop giving LBG
and Holly Jolly and RJ so much crap?
There is only one hepcat, and he has
decided to let you all back on this
site for a short time. When are you
going to stop listening to false prophets?
There is only one three-two-five.
And now there is no three-two-five.
That's right, after two months of
parking gold right where I told you
it was going to be parked ( too bad
you didn't listen ) , I have decided
to change my name to three-one-oh.
Ignore me at your peril.

Savage ( 1:14 ) They don't like it when "outsiders" come N and buy their business's...THEY prefer ta run em into the ground all by their lonesomes
...The joys of "warped socialism"...Nick: don't need the conversion from F to C as I only post F temp's to do the opposite of what the locals do here....a true contrarian...eh!...thankx anyway mate...Aurator ( 8:34 ) Huh??
....just a dumb "Yank" livin in exile....cause the beer is better here...
hey, we all gotta have our own causes...and priorities!...Hi Nick,Nick,and Nickers....

Industrial production # EXPECTED ta be up 0.5% and it is::: up 0.7% and July up 0.4% upgraded from 0.2%....S+P futures up 7.25%...Capacity Utilization @ 83.9%....

The beer's better here in NZ, even Nick Nick Nick said so

Urp....
BB is late an i is safe overnight
:- ) aurator

...the paper bulls had 'set up' this time frame ( release of PPI & CPI ) full KNOWING that those no's were 'historical' that is prior to UPS, minimum wage increase etc., thus the 'media blitz' of CB selling.
...the initial reaction today was a bond rally and a slam on PM prices.
...unfortunately other unforseen no's - industrial production up 07% ( consensus .05% ) and capacity no's also on the upside might spoil the party....
...we'll se...if they can't nudge gold down and bid stock up today...it's over
The trend has changed.

Still up 22 ticks....

Aurator ( 9:22 ) Yer probably...burp...right mate!...but Canadian beer sure beats the hell out of U.S. warmed over piss...sorry EB but yer "bud" suks
....Think I just heard the opening bell! S+P futures up 7.50 ( crash-UP ccontinues...Puetz: ya can run but ya can't hide....

TED Had the pleasure of several choice Candadian brews during your last summer ( which is kinda like our NZ winta ) if de market crashes in next 10 days I owe ya one big Fu#&*ing dinna nex' time i is up there---o'wise vice versa yaaa?....... Who cares,,,,,I like the gold,,,,,I like de beer and Like...

it may not be so long....business aint so bad

aurator

...this service is provided free of charge for all dipsters...bargains
galore...step up & buy!
General Electric P/E 28.37
Merck P/E 26.77
Aluminum Co of America P/E 24.43

...more research to come.....

Aurator ( 9:50 ) I haven't been predicting no crash....only thing crashin today is the PM'S...Comex: Gold down 1.90; silver down 10.2 cents; PL down 4.50; and PA down 1.90.....Dow only up 72 ...but come on up and share a "brew" er two...anyway!

...free research for dow dipsters....
...step up and buy...limited opportunities...

Goodyear Tire P/E 82.77
Eastman-Kodak P/E 24.49 ( before earnings disappointment tbr to 40+ )
Minnesota Mining P/E 23.18

...more to come....

For an excellent explanation of why we are up today, check out
http://avidtrader.com/opinion/2nd_op.htm
and go down 5 lines and hit the H.L. Camp entry. These program
traders have excellent daily update advice. Check it out!

...more bargoons for the dipsters....
...buy before it goes higher & higher...get your 401, use your credit cards ( if fully utilized ) apply for more, get your employer to put more of your pension money....use leverage ( margin debt is cheap )
...remember this is the new paradigm...it never ends...

International Paper P/E negative due to negative earnings
Procter & Gamble P/E 27.8
Hewlett-Packard P/E 23.14

Gold - Whoopie!!
Silver, Platinum, - Ouch!!!

Hi bro!...boy, you've become on a "roarin bull" on stox....good idea ta "max out" the ole credit card and buy more stox...they look cheap as hell and in this "nre era" ...they only goes up...eh!...sh!t, we'll all be zillionaires by the end of the week...Bobby Rubin fer President!

The full moon influence ( borrowed from H.L. Camp guys ) explains today's
strength. However, not only should the next 5 trading days have a
negative moon influence. There are cycles calling for a top in this
time frame. I took profits 15 minutes ago on longs ( S&P e-minis ) and
am now considering buying the Rydex Ursa fund in my mutual funds on today's close. I feel we should be lower by Friday, regardless of what
we do today or tomorrow.

Still may be too soon to buy XAU. I don't like the weakness I see
in the Australian precious metals index which I monitor overnight
from http://www.bloomberg.com

NRE=NEW in Cape Bretonese....BBL dudes...

London Bullion Marketing Association ( LBMA ) is best described as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Daily gold trading nearly 50% yearly production. Who & Why?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron913.html

..hi Ted...you bet ..trying to help out our dipsters bro's...
..short time out on free research ( will be resumed shortly ) ...in the meantime here's Andy Smith looking ahead...is he getting nervous?
Looking ahead, a report from UBS analyst Andy Smith following GFMS' Gold Update Seminar Friday considered the impact
of European Monetary Union on official gold reserves. He noted suggestions that EU country gold activities would be
centralized under the European Central Bank but questioned how this control would be maintained.

"What powers of moral suasion could the ECB really bring to bear on members not to sell? The same as might be imposed on
members exceeding the 'stability pact' guidelines for budget deficits under EMU--few and theoretical, about as effective as
cures for hair loss," he said.
http://www.cnnfn.com/news/knight_ridder/2270.1.html

Yesterday someone posted this new gadget
http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes

I'm using it and it is fabulous. You can watch whatever you wish, gold,
XAU.X as it's running while seeing the industrial average S & P and others as they change. Unbelievable.
Try it you'll like it. And thanks to whomever!!!!

Now Bart has a new setup for his site which too was great, but for some reason when I tried to get it today, it went back to the standard form,
anyone have any ideas as how to bookmark the new setup so that it will remain??

Y'all know your a great bunch, with minor exceptions, whom I won't mention. As someone said recently, just ignore the pests, eventually they dissappear.

..resuming our free research for dipsters....
..don't forget this other money raising ideas...equity loans ( mortgaging your house, is another brilliant idea ) .

Coca-Cola P/E 35.32
Wal-mart P/E 27.13
Philip Morris P/E 14.92 remember industry. Don't let those billion $ payments ( non-deductible ) ...they'll raise prices... ( but eh, don't worry it won't be included in our inflation figures...as it is well...uhhm..well..be excluded due to extra-ordinary event...yes that's it...we'll use 'substitution'..eh..eh...

Hey, how about those Eagles? Gold dying, gold stocks not doing as bad as one might expect - is that a good sign? And Euro-Nevada and Franco-Nevada? Through the floor....

...geez this is exhausting...so many bargains for the dipsters....
...more money raising ideas...use consumer loans...pledge your automobile...

Allied - Signal P/E 22.18
Boeing P/E 28.9
AT&T P/E 15.34 don't worry our top line little growth,

...next will feature Dividend Yields & Bonds...stay tuned.....

Nomercy: thankx for the latest "tip" on mortaging yer house ta get more money ta buy stox....am headin off ta the bank...NOW!....Re:Post office service in Canada+ the U.S. of A: Am now up to 11 days and counting to get a registered letter to Boston ( Fidelity ) ....keep up the good work guys!...and Canada Post: You can stick yer proposed strike up yer arse-hole...where it belongs!...11 days to go approx 800 miles...BBL later...am off to mortage the house....max out the credit card ...and buy some of dem cheap ( look @ KO will ya ) stox...buyin opportunity of a lifetime....

The MOON has now just entered the penumbra stage of the LUNAR ECLIPSE. We are close to maximum tidal forces. The last of the lunatics are now buying. Wathch for reversals in both gold and stocks before the close.

I am reading a good book on y2k, "The year 200 software crisis" by William M. Ulrich. He states "A century-date compliance project presents almost every conceivable type of project management challenge. Its size, scope, and execution requirements exceed even the largest system development project. It requires a monmumental level of coordination amoung organizational entities and the solution to a wide variety of technical issues, all at a time when there are severe resource constraints." In short an exercise in large scale project management, to be performed by IT departments used to midscale efforts at most.

On page 67 Mr. Ulrich states. "The best method for overcoming resource shortages is through advanced planning." It was in this vain that I purchased an extra case of 22lr ammo. Its useful, compact, lasts forever and in hard times could serve as money, kind of like its big brother gold.

This is a good book. For the layman it paints a broad picture. If you are a data processing man/woman each paragraph contains at least one, often more sentences which your mind instantly expands into paragraphs or pages of possibilities, few of them good. Years of looking into the guts of large systems, the awful semantics, horrible structuring, patches upon patches, mashed together and repeatedly massaged until somehow it works without breaking too often, has taught you not to wake the beast unless absolutely necessary. And what ever you do, do not attempt a sex change operation, with a dull pen knife, on the fully awake and extremely mad 2000 pound bull we call a large computer system.

PUETZ: I got to hand it to you, both the stock and gold markets are acting as if you are right with regard to major reversals at the close.

...Ted glad my 'tip' came in handy...here's somemore 'money raising ideas...SELL all your precious metals... yes that's it...sell all your gold, platinum coins...and buy POLAROID... here's a FLASH...FLASH...
...Polaroid just announced they have joined the ranks of LOWER EARNINGS...
..yet another bargain buying opportunity for the dipsters.....our selection is growing by the hour...stay tuned.....

Next a review....

Donald, Badger, et.al.
Donald, based on your calculations ( which I have confirmed ) for the current backing of the US bank notes in circulation by gold bullion of 262 million oz., my estimate is that if the US were to re-establish gold backing of the U.S. dollar at historical 25% of the dollar, this would require the U.S. to raise the "official" book value of its gold reserves to 0.25/0.024 = 10.417X the current book value of gold ( $42.22/oz ) , that is, to $439/oz... That isn't that much of a hike compared with the current world price of $324. But the signal this would send to the currency markets might be interesting. It would suggest that the U.S. dollar's purchasing power is indeed overstated by 10 times what it should be in terms of traditional denominations in gold. Whether such an actual revaluation of US book value of its gold reserves would result in any crisis in confidence in the US dollar would remain to be seen.

What is intriguing is that we have only considered U.S. bank notes ( M1, I believe ) , not other components of the total M3 money supply, mostly credit that I believe adds up to $5 trillion. If this total M3 money supply were to be supported by gold, the price of gold on the U.S. books would have to rise in the neigbourhood of $3,770/oz.

Am I correct in my logic or not?

From Kitco Donald
Date: Mon Sep 15 1997 18:23
Donald ( @Home ) :
BADGER, ZARDOZ: I fired up the Windos NT calculator which can
handle the zeros. Here
are the actual figures, ( I used rounding before ) .

There are 261,747,986 ounces of gold on deposit.
There are $460,098,000,000 worth of banknotes in circulation.
Divide notes into gold= .00056889 ounces of gold per U.S. dollar.

Gold Backing of the dollar:

Official rate of $42.22 = .024 cents worth of gold per U.S. dollar
Market rate of $324.50 = .184 cents worth of gold per U.S. dollar

( Someone please check my figures )

Gold stocks not doing too badly today considering, but volume still is lacking. A reversal by the close is a good bet, but volume must pick up sharply if it is to mark a major turn.

Ted, I've been lurking in the cyberbrush observing the posts and ruminating on the wisdom emanating from this site. It looks to me that gold and silver still are crusted over with financial barnacles and economic jetsam and flotsam from the passing paper ships. Paper is rising on its weakened haunches yet again this morning. Perhaps by closing bell it might be half-Nelsoned back to its proper prone posture. Here's a little something to gladden the heart.

The LAPD, the FBI and the CIA are all trying to prove that they are the
best at apprehending criminals. The President decides to give them a
test. He releases a rabbit into a forest and each of them has to catch
it.

The CIA goes in. They place animal informants throughout the forest.
They question all plant and mineral witnesses. After three months of
extensive investigations, they conclude that rabbits do not exist.

The FBI goes in. After two weeks with no leads they burn the forest,
killing everything in it, including the rabbit, and they make no
apologies....."the rabbit had it coming."

The LAPD goes in. They come out two hours later with a badly beaten
bear. The bear is yelling "Okay! Okay! I'm a rabbit! I'm a rabbit!"

...Dipsters....since you're now totally relaxed...after having implemented our 'tips 'and WAITING...you're herein provided a FREE review of your financial picture...

1 ) You have now sold all your precious metals, gold & platinum coins
2 ) You have mortgaged your house
3 ) You have pledged your automobile & obtained a consumer loan
4 ) You have max out your credit cards limits
5 ) You have used full leverage ( margin debt ) with your broker
6 ) You proceeded and put your 401, pension money into stox
7 ) You're a fully employed PART-TIME worker.... ( remember you like it )

And you have bought:
Coca-Cola, Gillette, Procter & Gamble, Eastman-Kodak, Polaroid, Boing, Motorola, Philip Morris, Wal-Mart, Hewlett-Packard, International Paper,
GoodYear Tire, Minnesota Mining, General Electric, Merck, Aluminum Co of America

Well done...you have now entered NEVEREVERLPAPERLAND...enjoy your 'stay'...

Now just take a nap & dream......

...last of this series....thanks to B. Rubin & A G for their superlative contribution in creating NEVEREVERPAPERLAND...where dreams occur...

...what's El Nino?

Puetz,
Reading your latest post I realized how Purdue beat the Irish.
That unwavering confidence!!!

The gold backing on the us dollar at 25% was removed in about 1964. Prior to this the dollar had been backed by 50% and in the good old days 100% in gold. Remember the "good as gold" dollar was once a receipt for gold itself. In those days you could take your dollar receipt to the treasury and receive physical gold. The same incremental stealing we are currently seeing of our right to own firearms was performed on our right to own honest money. So a 100% gold backed dollar would require around 1800 dollars per ounce of gold.

I'm in new frames and am posting. Did it go through?

From the BT NEWS.wE ARE UNDER THE SAME SKY......!
http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/pages/nwrld01.html
H.T

..interesting, Reuter does not have an update on the morning action.
...earlier in the morning they had this story....
AMSTERDAM, Sept 16 ( Reuter ) - The Dutch central bank said on Tuesday it was not currently selling gold from reserves.

``We are not selling gold,'' said spokesman Olaf Sleypen, adding that as far as he knew the central bank had no immediate
plans to do so.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/16/z0009_32.html

bw: Thanks for the comments, yes if gold backed the US bank notes 100%, the value of gold should be around $1800/oz. This confirms a study by Deutsche Morgen Grenfell that the relative purchasing power of gold vis-a-vis the US dollar has increased dramatically since 1934 to an order of 20 times or more. That is the US dollar is roughly 20 times weeker than it was when it was fully backed by gold. Given your estimate of $1800/oz the DMG figures seem conservative.

Regarding the news report on Asian currency market turbulence and the prospects of a world global "union"...ie. Multilateral Agreement on Investment ( MAI ) ....it will be interesting to see how gold behaves in response to these negotiations....my hunch is that those who advocate the MAI also advocate the death of gold and the introduction of a single global medium of exchange....electronic fund transfer system, e-cash, or any other word they can dream up.... a scary proposition.

As Doestevsky said...if "coined money is liberty" does such a move to a global unified monetary system ultimately destroy liberty? To that end, destroying the confidence in gold as money or medium of exchange is critical to their agenda. We are indeed close to the catacombs!

nomercy, Donald, Badger,bw.... Has anyone estimated the net change in volume of central bank gold bullion stocks as a result of 1 ) sale of bullion 2 ) gold bullion leases ( which amounts to actual losses of physical bullion on their books which are sold into the market by mining company recipients of the bullion loaned ) and 3 ) new bullion purchases?
I appreciate there are no "official" or audited inventories of gold bullion in CB vaults, but what would a back of the envelope calculation reveal, given the evidence of the volume of gold transactions through the LBMA ( revealed by Reuters in Jan. 1997..see Red Baron's article ) , plus "mainstream media" news of "offical" CB sales and purchases.

Surely, we can estimate the exposure to risk CBs face if in fact there are limited "actual" gold reserves left in their vaults. Their books will obviously be misleading in that they would presumably show gold leases as "gold bullion receivable", but that does not negate the reality of physcial gold being out of their store. Its gone into the market place and can't be recalled except from future production from mining companies which are indebted to them for the bullion.

The basic question then remains, if so many CBs ( the majority holders of bullion ) are both selling and leasing...WHO THE HELL IS BUYING? Or could it be that there is a circular game going on under our noses. They lease and sell gold into the market, the LBMA folks ( many of which help control the US Fed, Bank of England and Bank of France ) fix the price of gold every day... ( which is in their interest as boardmembers of the Fed and other CB as well as benef ) ....the fixed price is continually lower thereby providing a perfect rebuying opportunity to buy back the same gold they originally leased to gold mining companies but now at bargain prices.

The only loosers in such a scheme are the small guys, Kitco folks who have invested in gold stocks and bullion believing that their astute analysis of demand and supply would argue that gold is a good investment relative to overpriced equities. Have we been duped?

Puetz - Arch Crawford was just on the local tube. He said the center of the eclipse will occur at 1:50 Chicago time.

Now that the economy is at 83.9% capacity, highest since Sept/95 equal achievement, and inflation is undercontrol what else could propel the stock market over its 8/7 high ?

Earnings of big board exporters will hurt with Aisian currency deflation and high US dollar. The price multiples are not sustainable without the US economy exceeding capacity without inflation as there will be no good news on the export front.

It is a metter of time before investors start taking profits to safer harbours until global economic trade and currencies re-align to foster a new leg up in equities.

Cheers.

DJIND volume has fallen right off at inflated prices - an ominous sign for paperbugs. High resistance on the SP500 at 934. Very very interesting - hold your breath!!!

Can anyone please explain the significance of the lunar eclipse to the markets ?

Thanks.

http://www-clients.spirit.net.au/~minnah/LEO97-2.html

Has a world map with time zones of the when 'n where.

Bob, signifigance of the lunar eclipse to the markets is very similar to the signifigance of Saturn, Pluto, Psychic friends network, and "bone casting". Namely, ZERO.

If Bouchard says "OUI" to this new unique status for Quebec, will the world think that the Canadian $ is now cheap. If there is a run up on the Loonie, the US $ could really be hurt.
Canada in the past had a stonger dollar than US.

Puetz I followed my instincts and bought FmagX, and Fbgrx last night at the close based on your "crash today" eclipse scenario. You're an excellent contrary indicator. So far, market up 1% today. Love all the posts today, they're all on market topics..except "Friend of Kitco" at 08:32 of course who never has anything market related to say

Bob re your 12:46, I agree. We've had so much positive economic news in th epast year that there is little left to propel th emarket higher and plenty to drive it lower. ( Declining profits, unexpected inflation numbers, Fed rate increase, etc. ) . That's why I've been on the sidelines, until today's 1 or 2 day play based on Puetze & Sheller's excellent contrary indicator crash scenario's. Once I capitalize on a quick profit during this Eclipse phase, I'll back out to the sidelines again....still hoping for DOW 6700 to 7100 in October. A nice range to average back in.

Hey SHeller, I'm a Pisces, does that mean I'll get doubly crushed by today's crash when it occurs at the end of trading?? Too bad the market is so strong today, it means the crash'll be all the tougher to take!

LGB @ Blood on The Moon....

The moon is now approaching maximum eclipse. Tidal forces will peak out in about 15 minutes. DJIA at 7806. The moment of truth has arrived.

ANYONE: Does anyone know of a shareware site, or a reasonably priced program for MacIntosh that will link my computer to an accurate clock? My computer's internal clock speeds up about 30 seconds every month or so, and it's a pain to always have to re-set it. Thanks!

BART: I LOVE the new site with the charts and price updates, BUT I can't post from it. It has "How to Participate" in the box usually reserved for posting. I have to come back to the old URL site to post.

$#@*?! Puetz!! You're hurting my PM investments here! Gold down to $320.4, Silver and Platinum WAY off today...My bullion coins are taking a royal BEATING! I underestimated just how powerful your predictions are at driving the markets the OPPOSITE direction! I'll be paying MUCH closer attention to you in the future.

LGB: It seems you always tell us your positions after the fact, never before. Try telling us ahead of time for a change.

Scuse me Puetz but I said YESTERDAY that your crash scenario was going to drive me into the market with 5% of my MMF money, due to your now highly reliable miss record. I moved 10% in instead. Furthermore, the market is far from closing and you just said the moment of truth is at hand. There is PLENTY of time for me to be humilated still by today's "crash" no??

Israeli defense minister warns of war: http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/09/16/international_news/israelpal_2.html

September 16, 1997

Good economy underpins U.S. message to IMF meeting

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - When U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin travels to Hong Kong this week, his message to world financial leaders gathering there will be a simple one: look at our economy and see what you can learn from it.

He has plenty to talk about. Growth is strong, inflation stable and unemployment low -- the U.S. economy is in the seventh year of an unbridled expansion which has turned it into the envy of the world.

The timing for Rubin's visit to China could hardly come at a better time.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/IMF-USA.html


September 16, 1997

Clinton unveils long-awaited U.S. trade legislation

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - President Clinton planned to unveil Tuesday a long-awaited proposal to obtain special powers to negotiate trade deals and sought to woo Democrats who want strong protection for labor and environmental issues.

White House spokesman Mike McCurry told reporters that so-called fast-track trade negotiation legislation would take a number of approaches on sensitive labor and environmental issues.
Parts of Clinton's own Democratic party have deep misgivings about globalization and the growing number of trade deals and they want fast-track legislation to ensure protection for workers rights and environmental safety.

Clinton has argued that fast track is needed to open markets abroad for U.S. exports and to maintain U.S. leadership in the global economic arena. But labor unions and many Democrats oppose granting new negotiating authority until problems they see in the North American Free Trade Agreement ( NAFTA ) are fixed.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/TRADE-USA.html

BOB - What is the relationship between eclipse and market? I believe Mr Puetz feels there is some subtle emotional effect, if not at least some concern among those on the street who are astrologically inclined. In the case of a market which is much taller than it is broad we expect a trigger to set off an avalanche. In this case Mr Puetz has some evidence that eclipses coincide with crashes. As many here have said "We shall see". That small influences can have large consequences look up the Scientific American article about three years ago on some IBM scientists who have been working on a study of super-critical systems; systems which are poised for a fall. I don't understand that Puetz is advocating a rationale for WHY or HOW eclipses effect markets at some points, just that there is a strong corelation between the two recently.

What Do the Polls Say About NAFTA and Fast Track?



( * Indicates Pro-Fast Track/NAFTA Organizations )

61% of Americans oppose "having Congress grant the President fast-track
authority". Hart and Teeter for the Wall Street Journal/NBC, July 26-28 1997 ( 1 ) .



57% of Americans oppose "new trade pacts with Latin American countries". Wirthlin
Worldwide for Bank of Boston*: November 1996.



73% of Americans believe "labor and environmental issues should be negotiated as
part of trade agreements". Wirthlin Worldwide for Bank of Boston*: November 1996.
http://www.citizen.org/gtw/poll.htm

Strad Master: There is a freeware package called AutoClock that will measure the average deviation of your clock from true time, and then make appropriate periodic adjustments. AutoClock can also auto-dial a time keeping service and download the correct time for you, say, every week or so, I believe -- as well as do other useful things for you. Goto http://hyperarchive.lcs.mit.edu/HyperArchive.html and search on the keyword 'clock.' You'll get 20-30 hits ( so you can also check out their other clock software ) . When I searched just a few minutes ago, AutoClock was the last hit on the page and appeared under the heading 'Abstract of Re-Submission of AutoClock 1.44 174K ( 07/02/94 ) Download'

As I understand it, Puetz postulates the "eclipse effect" based on past market events which coincided within a few days window of past eclipses. Puetze's supporting data includes market events like the "Tulip" mania boom and bust, previous commodity "bubble/burst" crashes ( he references a specific one in silver and others ) , foreign market crashes, in addition to stock market events. He then compares these events to the dates of lunar eclipses to show the correlation between eclipses and crashes.

The immediate problem with the whole thesis is that it is a flawed model based on insufficient data points which were selected specifically to support the model. In order to make an accurate determination of an "eclipse/major market event" correlation, we must take ALL COMPARABLE events that have ocurred within Puetze's time frame, which are in any way similar to those he himself has used.

Since Puetz used such markets as "Tulips" and commodities to support his thesis, we must take every major market move in Gold, silver, Heating oil, gas, Beanie babies, coffee, soybeans, world stock markets, Tickle Me Elmo dolls, currency markets, etc etc. If we then take all of these events ( which must number in the high hundreds if not thousands ) and determine how many occur within some specific window of a lunar eclispe, compare that to all similarly spaced "random" date windows, we can then see if there is any SUBSTANTIAL correlation between eclipses, investor psychology, and the markets.

I've grossly oversimplified the model of what would be required fro a valid anlysis, but that's the bare bones basics of what it would take. I'd be interested in the results if such a study, done scientifically by an unbiased third party.

I suspect we'd get the same results as such studies that have been done in the past decade on the effect of the full moon on human behaviour, Namely, statistically insignifigant. Despite the "wives tales" we've grown up with for years to the contrary.

Strad Master: Try the Naval Observatory @ http://tycho.usno.navy.mil/ for correct time.

...gov't caculated CPI serves a purpose....they wouldn't fudge the no's now, would they?
WASHINGTON ( MktNews ) - The continuing moderation of the Consumer Price Index, which in
August rose a less-than-expected 0.2% overall and just 0.1% for the core rate, will slow Social
Security raises considerably when the annual adjustment is set next month, a top Bureau of Labor
Statistics analyst said Tuesday morning.
http://www.economeister.com/curracct/970916ca/uscpi_fv.htm

BART: Very nice frames version - great work.
BW: Im in the IT business and as i've said before all indications are that this Y2K problem grossly underestimated and will only get BIGGER from here on in. Consultants are already getting US $100. an hour and this will probably increase greatly in 98 and 99. The highest i've heard is $500. an hour but that remaiins to be seen ( im hoping ) .
This implies that $ 1/2 million yearly earnings are very possible.
Companies that are behind in Y2K work WILL HAVE NO CHOICE but to pay the going rate, or their business will grind to a halt on day 1, 2000, period.
Interesting that the Nightly Business Report had a special report on this last night and the economist interviewed was predicting a possible recession in 2000, caused by the increased costs accociated with the Y2K problem. Remember that this was on the conservative. pro Wall street NBR program.
Of course we have heard others with much harsher predictions.
This problem is not going away, and it is certainly very real.

Bob: Lunar eclipse relationship to markets.....one explanation can be found at a site earlier referenced on this forum:
http://www.programtrading.com/buysell.htm

What the average Joe sees on his Yahoo Bus. news ticker.....

Tuesday September 16 12:40 PM EDT

NY precious metals rebound at midday but still off

NEW YORK, Sept 16 ( Reuter ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metal futures rebounded at midday but were still
in negative territory as the market absorbed the U.S. consumer price index released earlier and felt itself under the
continued threat of central bank sales.

But the bounce off the lows was interpreted by some traders as a positive sign, attributing the selling to old stop-loss
orders with most of the damage done already.

COMEX December gold was down $1.90 at $322.80 an ounce after bouncing back from a morning nadir of
$321.00, the lowest level since July 7.

CPI increased 0.2 percent from the previous month, while Wall Street analysts expected a 0.3 percent increase.

``Actually, the selling took off an hour after the CPI numbers came in,'' one floor trader said. ``It coincided more
with the stock market, which rallied nicely.''

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 64.74 points at 1224 EDT at 7,785.88, below a high of 7,811.12 points.

In the bullion market, spot gold was quoted at $320.60/321.10 against the London afternoon fix of $321.00 and the
New York close of $322.80/323.30.

Implied one-month lease rates fell to 3.14 percent from 3.80 percent Tuesday.

``There was some old fund stops in there,'' said John Geraghty, a trader with North American Equity Services. ``But
what was more noteworthy was that some scale down fund buying came in from overseas. Gold is not behaving like
a bear market. It's absorbing the selling very nicely.''

Another trader agreed, saying, ``If we can get a settlement above $323.40 an ounce, gold is right back in there.''

COMEX December silver was down 10.7 cents at $4.65, the lowest price since Aug 22.

NYMEX October platinum was down $5.50 at $421.50, with NYMEX December palladium off $1.00 at $191.50.

Strad Master: BTW, I got that MIT MacIntosh shareware link from http://www.cs.tufts.edu/~epalazzo/mac.html . Check it out. There are lots of Mac shareware links there.

Tuesday September 16 12:40 PM EDT

NY precious metals rebound at midday but still off

NEW YORK, Sept 16 ( Reuter ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metal futures rebounded at midday but were still in
negative territory as the market absorbed the U.S. consumer price index released earlier and felt itself under the
continued threat of central bank sales.

But the bounce off the lows was interpreted by some traders as a positive sign, attributing the selling to old stop-loss
orders with most of the damage done already.

COMEX December gold was down $1.90 at $322.80 an ounce after bouncing back from a morning nadir of $321.00,
the lowest level since July 7.

CPI increased 0.2 percent from the previous month, while Wall Street analysts expected a 0.3 percent increase.

``Actually, the selling took off an hour after the CPI numbers came in,'' one floor trader said. ``It coincided more with
the stock market, which rallied nicely.''

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 64.74 points at 1224 EDT at 7,785.88, below a high of 7,811.12 points.

In the bullion market, spot gold was quoted at $320.60/321.10 against the London afternoon fix of $321.00 and the
New York close of $322.80/323.30.

Implied one-month lease rates fell to 3.14 percent from 3.80 percent Tuesday.

``There was some old fund stops in there,'' said John Geraghty, a trader with North American Equity Services. ``But
what was more noteworthy was that some scale down fund buying came in from overseas. Gold is not behaving like a
bear market. It's absorbing the selling very nicely.''

Another trader agreed, saying, ``If we can get a settlement above $323.40 an ounce, gold is right back in there.''

COMEX December silver was down 10.7 cents at $4.65, the lowest price since Aug 22.

NYMEX October platinum was down $5.50 at $421.50, with NYMEX December palladium off $1.00 at $191.50.

This is indeed a complex subject. The method you describe would take a very large team and great analytical power to hash through all the valiables and non-valiables that might be pertinent to an effect. One of the problems with an *exacting* empirical approach is that the starting point can vary subtly between researchers. This can influence the outcome a great deal. How would one go about rationalizing a model for relavent events to be included in the sample. That is to say how would one tease out the qualifications for including an event. Puetz is taking a stab at it the old way, observation. Yes there are flaws in this approach. He is making a prediction which is the sure test of any model. Once upon a time people believed the earth was flat because of their experience. There was no such thing as disease causing organisms to small to be seen. There was no understanding of ionic bonding in molecular formations. In fact all these hypothesis were based on the intuitive ideas of those who did not have many of the exacting empirical tools you find so comforting.. they were developed later.

Gold is rebounding as I type. We will be back up in the band shortly.

Bart - You ARE the man!!!

14:20 EDT

Winners Losers

DOW +106.95 XAU -0.88
Nasdaq +22.82 HUI -1.01
S&P 500 +19.39 Gold Futures -2.20
DJ Utilitites +1.28 Silver Futures -0.147
Platinum Futures -6.50
Palladium Futures -3.00

ZARDOZ: Re post at 11:31. I think you are confusing credit dollars ( the $5 trillion debt ) with cash dollars. The founding fathers, and good government ( in my opinion ) only require that the currency be backed 100% by gold. When you decide you want interest for your gold backed cash dollar then you exchange it for a credit dollar such as an entry in a passbook account or a U.S. Treasury Bond or a junk bond. That was your option and you can only get gold exchangeable cash dollars when the person you loaned them to returns them. There should be no risk in currency because you forego interest. Before 1933 many loan agreements included a gold clause. That was a private agreement between the parties that payment would be in gold. Those were cancelled by Roosevelt. But even if a private loan had a gold clause there was always the chance that the person who borrowed could not repay. When you gave up your cash dollar to the bank in the days before 1933 you gave up your claim to gold. People did not fully understand that and were outraged when they realized what had happened. Today we have the same problem. Many have bought their mutual funds at their bank and think that the money is insured. A poll showed that number to be 40% recently. Woe is us when they get the bad news.

Agreed Allen, I would have no idea how you would "weight" all the factors to come up with a reliable model, or where a valid starting point would be. After all, the nature of markets is constantly evolving and changing. Don't get me wrong, I'm not married to the scientific method to the exclusion of all else, however, in most cases it's the best we've got. better at least than "wishes" and "fairy tales"... Hey I believe in Alien life forms! Just not that we have any real evidence they're visiting us!!

... to those who filled in in on the lunar moon issue.

Could return ?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

"Market buoyed by inflation banishment" etc. article posted on Yahoo a few minutes ago, URL below. Interesting that DOW is up so much in SPITE of a terrible beating being taken by Kodak based on lower than expected earnings. Does this bode ill for silver prices? Could this be a factor in silvers decline today???

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/16/beav_ek_m_1.html

Hello all....Should be interesting to see how low this downswing will take us. Am weighing dry powder now. Expect to fire again by late next week...

http://crydee.sai.msu.su/public/lyrics/cs-uwp/h/hooters/all_you_zombies

....all you zombies show your faces....
....all you people in the street....
....all you sitting in HIGH places....

....THE RAIN'S GONNA' FALL ON YOU....

September 16, 1997

Former A-bomb physicist breaks silence on atomic espionage

WASHINGTON ( AP ) - A retired American physicist who helped develop the first atomic bombs has spoken out for the first time on his role in a 1940s spy ring that helped the Soviet Union learn key secrets of the wartime bomb project.

"During 1944 I was worried about the dangers of an American monopoly of atomic weapons if there should be a postwar depression," Hall wrote in a statement. "To help prevent that monopoly, I contemplated a brief encounter with a Soviet agent, just to inform them of the existence of the A-bomb project. I anticipated a very limited contact. With any luck it might easily have turned out that way, but it was not to be."

"My decision about contacting the Soviets was a gradual one, and it was entirely my own. It was entirely voluntary, not influenced by any other individual or by any organization ... I was never 'recruited' by anyone," he wrote.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Atomic-Spy.html

September 16, 1997

Toronto stocks hold healthy gains at midday 2

TORONTO, Sept 16 ( Reuter ) - Toronto stocks held healthy morning gains at midday on Tuesday as banks, conglomerates and utilities advanced strongly, offsetting weak golds.

The Toronto Stock Exchange's key 300 Composite Index rose 35.17 to 6823.06 at midday on turnover of 52.3 million shares worth C$855 million. Advances narrowly outpaced declines 408 to 404, while 274 issues traded flat.

Interest-sensitive stocks were boosted by unexpectedly low U.S. consumer prices this morning, helping ten of Toronto's 14 sub-indexes higher.
The heavily-weighted banking index gained 90 points or 1.22 percent to 7444, while conglomerates, utilities, transportation and consumer products were close behind.

The gold group continued to suffer, shedding 70 points or 0.91 percent to 7623. Energy, real estate and communications also lost ground.

MoreGold: Do you know if the IRS has any IBM System 360 or System 370 platforms still in production? I have heard IBM is not going to support this hardware across year 2000. All applications on these platforms must find a new home. The IRS is in deep dodo I do not believe any amount of money or talent can get them ready in time. In 1998 the more venturesome will start to probe the waters, in 1999 the flood will break. Gov expenses, reflecting the extra year 2000 costs will climb, gov revenues thanks to a lower fear factor will decline. And we used to think a 300-400 billion deficit was big!

Nailz -- Two numbers on Dec gold are in my thoughts. 319, then potentially 309. Also, the paper ain't done yet! Maybe later. Maybe tomorrow. I'll be watching the 968 area, then 980 on the Dec S&P, should it get there. This sucker is strong, but we all know that can change pretty quickly! Also will be watching the 116.5 area on the Dec bonds. Failure to break above previous highs will NOT be good! If they do, gold will probably be dead for a couple more months.

Tuesday, September 16, 1997

Typhoon lashes southwestern Japan, six dead

http://canoe2.canoe.ca/News/sep16_typhoon.html

Historical precedent suggests House Of Rothschild is buying gold hand over fist! See extensive analysis review of what the the Richest Family in the world is investing in now:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta909.html

S&P 500 up 2.44% ( those S&P PUTS you recommended must really be doing well today ) . DOW/Nasdaq up 1.7%. What a pleasant "crash" this is! I think I'll take Sheller's advice and go outside to smell the roses, since my birthday is within a day of his March 14/15.

BTW Puetz, since you commanded me to state my plays in advance ( which I did with both SSC AND today's buy into the Fidelity funds ) , I'm SELLING today on the close. Don't want to be greedy or anything, still waiting for a good correction or reversal of market trend. You made me over a weeks salary today Puetz, several times what I'd have made if you didn't back out on our "Crash" by 10/31 bet!

Don't worry though Puetz, as someone said yesterday, "Puetz will be right, even if his timing is off". I agree completely. Just like that poster of yesterday I'll go WAY out on a limb and support you with the following prediction. SOMETIME a bear market in stocks will arrive and the metals will go up!

( LGB @ Protect them Widders & Orphans... )

September 16, 1997

Closing stock market prices

LONDON ( Reuter ) - Here is how major stock markets outside the United States ended Tuesday.
LONDON - Stocks jumped for the second day in a row after tame U.S. inflation data sparked a strong rally in New York.
The FTSE 100 rose 73.5 points, or 1.5 percent, to 4,976.4.
FRANKFURT - Shares ended 2 percent higher as a buoyant Wall Street bolstered earlier gains after friendly comments
from Bundesbank council member Olaf Sievert. The DAX-30 index jumped 78.82 points, or 2.1 percent, to 3,898.95.
PARIS - French stocks also rallied, also on the U.S. inflation data and strength in the bond market. The CAC-40 index
closed at 2,940.55, up 41.93 points, or 1.5 percent.
ZURICH - Swiss stocks jumped as well, with the Swiss market index up 96.1 points, or 1.8 percent, to 5,417.8.
TOKYO - Stocks ended little changed, with the benchmark Nikkei index stuck in a narrow range. The 225-share Nikkei
average closed at 17,974.50, up 8.70 points.
HONG KONG - Stocks extended losses as investors took profits ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. The Hang
Seng index lost 219.46 points, or 1.5 percent, to 14,411.19.
SYDNEY - Heavy selling in the mining sector pulled stocks lower, although some issues recovered in late trading. The All
Ordinaries index fell 11.1 points to 2,651.8.

Lordy, Lordy! Would you believe I made $50K, being long 4 Spoos on Crash Day?

Dow screaming up. 20 Million lemmings can't be wrong?

Puetz: You are looking terrible today. But the longer this goes on the closer you are to being right. 4500 by the end of the month would be a crash I don't want to see.

Yes I WOULD believe it! I just wish I was a big enough player to get them leveraged vehicles! Maybe next time Puetz calls for a crash, I'll risk some of my seed money! DOW/S&P still climbing to the MOON and stars.... I do feel sympathy for gold share holders today. They're being absolutely massacared.

ECO down 1.28%
HL down 2.44%
SSRIF down 7.55%
CDE down 1.37%
IPMCF down 6,45%
PDG down .82%
NEM down 1.25%

OUCH!!! Ya'll pay attention to LGB, I precahed a buy on SSC last week, it made over 15% and is unchanged today in spite of the bloodbath in the mining stock sector and today's drop in silver prices. Incredible strength there. I think I'll buy some more....

Looks like an ideal shorting opportunity for those looking to make a killing during the Big Puetz Crash of '97 scheduled to commence between now and Wednesday's close!

Eldorado: me thinks reversal in dow will probably happen tomorrow after we reach 7930-7950 area. personally , I don't think we will see 8000 again, but since I have a horrible track record, just fade me. Gold making cycle low this week ( 22 week cycle )

Puetz if you're ready to put the chicken entrail readings aside, I think Ron's 13:34 post is a story that could be a REAL trigger for a future crash. http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/09/16/international_news/israelpal_2.html This kind of escalation could very well lead to Middle East conflict, oil supply problems, hieghtening of world tensions, etc. which would do major damage to all world markets. And an increase in the metals prices.

AS to today's incredible market close, I can only say "thank you" Puetz. It's the very BEST one day play GAIN I've ever made!!!! Please let me know the time and date of the next "crash" so I can make a few MORE thousand will ya???

Indeed I hear that the IRS is one of the worst offenders.
They apparently have a lot of old complex cobol code.
I would guess that a lot of it still runs on the 370.
They would probably have to convert these programs to a newer
version of cobol besides doing the Y2K work.
Probably the most difficult task will be testing the finished product, if they get that far..... If I were them I would be reserving programmers now......

Peutz are for real, like do you have a clue what you are talking about.
LGB I am starting to believe that you are for real. Keep up the good work LGB.

Another story that could escalate to something which might be a genuine trigger for a crash.... http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/16/y0012_y00_17.html

( LGB @ No more Blood on the Moon )

Puetz: Good call!...and then ya compounded it by yer ( 11:14 ) post!!...Just back from a loooong ocean walk and what a spectacular day!! and dem stox didn't do too bad either...Someday you'll be right that we'll go into a bear market but in the meantime..............as the years pass by...$$$$$$$ in missed opportunities...HI Tort!! Still can't believe what the Eagles did @ the end of last night's game...PATHETIC!!...

That's right NC. Us sheeplike, naive, shallow minded, unsophisticated, non analytical, Lemmings just keep making astonomicaly huge gains in stocks for decades on end, while our "Superiors", stand on the sidelines counting their losses. How I love being one of the simple minded proletariots making my phony phantom paper profits....Some day you "elites" will be right when our next inevitable crash does occur. Then you'll only be 2,200 % behind us instead of the 2,500% you're behind now...

( LGB @ Crowing way too much.... )

Nomercy: Thankx for the latest "tip"....am sellin EVERTHING ( furniture,TV, computer,Willy ect ect. ) to get more cash ta buy more stox...They's practically given em away @ these prices....Dow 10,000 by Friday....or late Thursday.....

September 16, 1997

Stocks jump after inflation data ignites bond market

NEW YORK ( Reuter ) - Stocks soared Tuesday as the latest good news on inflation ignited one of the biggest rallies ever in the bond market, driving long-term interest rates lower. Based on early and unofficial data, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 174.78 points, or 2.3 percent, to close at 7,895.92. The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index climbed 33.68 points to 1,668.60, a record. In the broader
market, advancing issues swamped declines by a 3-1 margin on heavy volume of 641 million shares on the New York Stock Exchange. Meanwhile, the benchmark 30-year Treasury jumped 2-5/16, or $23.13 on a $1,000 bond, lowering its yield, which moves in the opposite direction, to 6.40 percent from 6.57 percent Monday.

Lengthy article analyzing todays PM activities on the close...

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/16/y0023_z00_36.html

...I noticed that you took full advantage of the 'free' research, money raising & investing tips...
Fully invested at today's values ( no inflation remember ) ...and full of Debts...
You are now in NEVEREVERPAPERLAND, where you can only dream....
Oh yes, if you noticed a 'little rotation' today, don't worry it was the Big Boys ( Rubin's friends ) moving out, making room for you. Since they filled their pockets already, they're now giving you the opportunity of a lifetime.
...isn't that grand of the Big boys!

Its important to remember who is selling and who is buying. As stated in earlier article posted here large funds are selling into demand by small investors. The large ones are going into bonds now. This day's results are part of the mania. LGB, Ted and others are having a good time reaping profits by riding the wave; but hear their sentiment - in and out, no long term commitment. This is part of the volatility and the mix will get more volatile.

Bravo to oldman, LGB and Ted for your gains. Maybe when things look bad you will have lot of money to put into PM's before the big rush. I'm interested to hear when you get real defensive, which will probably be a precursor to those who are like minded to stampede out of equities.

Sleep well all.

LGB,
You can be funny at times.
I will point out that Puetz said that there was a high probability that crash will happen today. He also stated that historicaly crashes occur within two/three days of lunar eclipses. I must agree with your decision to sell after todays close.

Geff, GVC -- I'll be watchin' the numbers. Any failure to break previous highs is going to be BAD! Just like gold could make a real fast and hard washout below 319 DEC. Actually that's what I'd like to see! I actually don't bet on seeing any particular numbers except for support and resistance. Thus I do not know what will happen tomorrow until something breaks one way or the other, if it should. Only 'possibilities' should a breakage happen.

U.S. News & World Report was confident that additional war scares would
set things right. "War scares are easy to create" it observed on February
17, 1950, "and are nearly sure fire producers of money for more arms..."

And on the eve of the Korean War that publication said:
"Government planners figure they have found the magic formula for almost
endless good times. They are now beginning to wonder if there may not be
something to perpetual motion after all...Cold War is the catalyst. Cold
war is an automatic pump-primer. Turn the spigot, and the public clamors
for more arms spending. Turn another, the clamor ceases...Cold war
demands, if fully exploited, are almost limitless."

But "the magic formula" was not working as the economic decline of 1949
deepened. It never does. Pump-priming for war, either hot or cold, may
delay depression while it guarantees its inevitable approach and
additiona; severity.

Monoply was fortuitously rescued from its plight by President Truman's
sudden declaration of "POLICE ACTION" in Korea in June 1950. War orders
and munitions contracts were doubled and wages were frozen as monopoly's
profits before taxes leaped to an average of forty-three billions a year
during the first two years of the Korean War.

Allen ( 16:42 ) No long-term commitment??? Been in the same stox for over TEN years...but will sell a few of em...if my registered mail ever gets to Boston...The rest will stay in DRIP....the ultimate timming device!
BBL later...din din time!

Allen, re your 16:42. True I don't have a strong long term commitment to the market at the moment. "In and out" you said. ( In and out is something I've always enjoyed but that's anotehr story... ) . I'll be long term OUT if and when the basic economic "Fun Dah Mentals" ( to borrow from Petronius ) shift to bearish. I'll ne long term IN, if DOW recedes to the 6700 to 7100 level and the basic economic "Fun-dah-mantals" are still intact.

Meanhile I'm counting my profits today, and tomorrow the wife and I have decided to celebrate by taking a day off and cruising down to Pt. Lobos ( Monterey Coast ) for a beautiful day of El Nino / Linda wave watching..., taking a dip in this unseasonably warm El Nino waters, and might even see some migrating whales heading South, though it's a bit early yet, and El Nino is likely to throw em way off their normal patterns to boot.

The penumbra phase of the eclipse is comple. Stocks ready to crash now. LGB: If you're going to use me as a contray indicator, you had better get long stocks and stay that way for the next 3 to 6 years.

September 15, 1997

Defence industry a boom to economy

OTTAWA ( CP ) - A defence lobby groups says there are a far greater number and variety of companies that supply the defence market in Canada and abroad than previously thought.

An analysis by the Canadian Defence Preparedness Association showed that in 1996 there were approximately 1,500 companies employing roughly 50,000 Canadians directly and indirectly in the defence industry. The association said $5.2 billion in revenues were generated last year.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Defence-Jobs.html

****Canadian Defence Preparedness Association****
Who the hell is this Association. As if Canada, requires a Preparedness
Organization. Prepare for what defence, we are 80 % owned by others!!!!!

Canada is the only industrialized nation in the world that has been
taken over without a shoot being fired. Since the war of 1812, against
the USofA. Get real. A Canadian Defence Preparedness Association. Like
the USofA Association,operating in Canada. EH!

El Nio's warmth covers area larger than USA
"As the satellite has mapped El Nio across the Pacific, what we've seen continually throughout the summer and into September
now is that early indications actually have persisted and intensified,'' said Bill Patzert, a research oceanographer with the
TOPEX-Poseidon project at JPL.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wnino916.htm

I am beginning to wonder if the money supply matters. If people accept dollars for goods and services obviously no one cares about money supply or debt. A doubting bug?

LGB: You're a lucky guy. You trade the markets and make money. God bless you. Some others are not so lucky. I, for one, had all my investment money in a managed stock fund which went down. Then I figured I could trade it myself and so got every possible book on fundamental and Technical amnalysis, computer program, Quotrek, etc. I understand this stuff quite well - but still I'm no expert. Still lost money. Wound up with a daily fax service for short term trading - still lost money. Tried one of the recommendations by Bill Buckler on the radio ( can't remember what it was now but I know it lost money. ) Started reading "gloom 'n doom books" and got into commodities and metals - lost more money. I'm an intelligent guy but, I've concluded, not lucky in markets. Perhaps it's my Karma. Perhaps it's the way my musician's brain works. I set my stops exactly as recommended and get stopped out only to see the ( stock, commodity, PM ) instantly reverse and go in the right direction right after I was stopped out. Even saw it happen a few times on my Quotrek - MY stop out trade went buy at the very bottom of a a move. Had I stayed in stocks, I would have lost just as much money as I've done elsewhere, of that I'm convinced - because it just doesn't seem to be my destiny to do well with this stuff.
Nonetheless, I'm a happy guy. I have a beautiful wife and two ( almost three ) kids. I live in paradise and am surrounded by wonderful friends. All my needs are met. I thank God every day for my blessings! The point of this: We've all tried to do the best with our finances that we can. Some are lucky, some are not. I think that the reason you're so disliked here is the attitude you so often seem to project of arrogantly mocking those who are ( in their way of understanding things ) trying to muddle through and do the best they can with their money. In the long run, I think I'd rather be a happy guy with less money than an arrogant and angry one with a lot more. Just an observation...

All the CB gold sale talk just before G-7 and FOMC. Looks like the plan is to hit the gold. S&P Traders know this and are sprucin up for the end of the qtr. Query When, if ever does it stop.?

Look I hate to get soap boxy, but days like today happen only ocassionally. So here are my "motives" for giving grief to Puetz and his ilk. Firstly, as I've said a million times, it's cost a lot of investors money to follow such folks. Secondly, I know people personally who have lost a lot. Thirdly I find myself amused by the "Elistist" mentality of so many posters here who have the "REAL" knowledge. The "INSIDE" scoop. The "REAL ANALYSIS" and ability to tell us all why dollars are phony, the market is phony, our profits are phony, we're all misled sheep, etc etc ad nauseum.

Lastly I have a challenge for such folks with that "Elite" understanding of the "true" economic forces at work. What is YOUR motive for endless gloom and doom predictions for years on end? Is it just more "fun" than facing real life?

I have to tell you something G & D crowd. In all seriousness. Ridicule me if you like, but I just happen to love this country. I love my life here, the benefits of living here, the abundance, the plenty, the lifestyle, the blessings of living in the richest most prosperous, most free nation on earth. The greatest democracy of all time.

Sorry if it sounds "trite" and "naive" to you brilliant Elites, but I actually BELIEVE in this country. In the strength of the American spirit. The resilience of our system of democracy. The strength of our economy Which ultimately rests in the strength of our democracy ) .

Yes I even believe in the wisdom of the inferior masses you so ridicule. That no matter what may come, we'll stick together and work it out because that's the kind of country and spirit we've built. Sure we have idiot politicians and corporate leaders. It's human nature. But ultimately I'm an optimist about this country AND this economy of ours. THAT's why I'll be LONG in our equities market over the long run. Those who have bet on our strength , have WHIPPED you pessimists consistently for 200 years. Whether your elitism sprang from Marxist ideology, Libertarian philosophy, too great a belief in your own superiority, or some other bankrupt source. As for me, I'll bet on my country.....

Go ahead, make your snide sarcastic comments. I'll just keep enjoying life, worrying less than the "Gllom and Doomers" do, laughing at the nonsense I read here, and outliving all the folks who will die of heart attacks long before this "Bubba" does!!

To those who find me "angry" or as RJ states, mentally and emotionally disturbed, you all read WAY too much into someone's posting style. And way too much into some celestial and world events! If you observed the "LGB" for a day, you'd see one of the happiest, smilinist, most relaxed kinda guy's you'd ever meet. Most of my "wrath" on this board is either in jest, or to make a point and encourage a more balanced debate. ( Which has happened I think from time to time ) .

OK, RJ and all others with PHd's in pshyciatry and human behaviour. You can get your latest DSM out now and tell everyone how shallow, empty, needy, imbalanced, insincere, etc etc I am. Meanhile, I'll just go on having fun with life, laughing, and enjoying the good fortune bestowed on us all by God and our founding fathers.

( LGB @ sung to the tune of "America the Beautiful" )

I didn't do as well as OLDMAN today, but I did make 25k on my modest long position. Naturally wish I had taken a much bigger position, but that's life.

Steve Puetz: I respect many aspects of your work, but NOBODY can expect to predict the exact date of a major crash except by sheer luck. As I have said, the market's internals are much too strong for a crash to occur anytime soon. Persistent weakness in gold is another signal that a crash in not on the near-term horizon.

Gold complex still very sick. A final cleanout looks very possible over next few weeks.

LGB: You seem shallow, imbalanced, needy and insincere. Happy?

STRAD MASTER: Yours at 17:12. You are one of the good guys at this site. Hang in there, you are going to make some money soon.

Strad re your post ( which I didn't see till I posted my sermon ) . I hope this isn't an insult, but you and I have a lot in common. I too have a beautiful wife, great kids who I love more than my own life, an excellent career and a lifestyle that affords great enjoyment of these blessings. The "investment" thing is simply a hobby, with very little meaning to our overall hapiness.

I have one comment on your investment history. I had a lot of similar problems before someone convnced me to stop being so clever, and just do the old boring "Dollar cost average" thing. That was 12 years ago. I'm very glad it happened, and in retropsect, and in view of contrasting various strategies for investing in the past 100 years or so, I'd say that by far MOST investors ought to just buy and hold till retirement.

Yes, I'm strating to try and outsmart myself again making "plays" with my 401K and savings. I've been lucky so far, may be unlucky in the future. But I'll minimize the risks as best I can and have fun with it. I have every confidence that my wife and I will greatly enjoy the rest of our lives no matter what our investments do, so I don't take it too seriously, but there IS that small part of me that loves the "action"

In fact, I'll be at the poker tables tonight! SIlver & Platinum folks! And buy them from Bart to show appreciation for the forum. ( Thanks Bart, sorry for the excessive use of bandwidth, I promise to cut back... just couldn't help it today being the ECLISPE and all )

Yes WW, much better now that you posted some good insults! Now I can keep my promise to Bart, sign off for the day, and sleep peacefully tonight! ( LGB@ Mental Institution....Outta here )

PS, All in fun Puetz, all in fun. OK OK, MOSTLY in fun, no genuine malice intended. You'll have better days ahead.

( No longer hearing the shrill cries of "insincere" LGB signing off )

WW: It is usless to fight the tape. Gold will have its day, but not yet. My advice -- stay away from gold and gold stocks until reaction to news dramtically improves and/or the gold stocks start to rally on very heavy volume. Then take the big plunge. That is what I intend to do.

Sincere Posters: Since my last post at 08:32 today here is are the totals. Sincere Posters 41, hepcat and the disinformation crew 70. As you can see we are not doing too well. This disinformation effort was increased over the last few days. It would appear the Y2K information at this site prompted this action. The intensity and expense of this disinformation effort tells me we are correct to buy and hold gold. Why else would someone go to great expense to convince us otherwise? Take care.

Dow/Gold Ratio 24.62. In spite of the rally in stocks today the ratio is still favoring gold over stocks. There has not yet been a false reversal. Stock investors will have to show us they are willing to pay an additional 1.5 ounces of gold for the Dow before a reversal is in place.

This moon stuff may not be all nuts. Remember today was near record volume and a huge up move. So it was not your normal day maybe some of the moon stuff did have an effect but just in a different way. The theory was a high six weeks before a lunar eclipse meant crash. This was true but only for the Dow. For the other indices it was just another lunar eclipse. Remember majority rules.

Outstanding comments. Success "is" you, and yours. Take care.

Listen Friend of Kitco, AKA Dan Quale. I knew Jack Kitco. Jack Kitco was my friend. And you're no Jack Kitco! Why don't you thank Bart for the site instead of your constant whining? Or go start a site of your own where you and all likeminded can pat each other on the back all day? Love the dialogue here Bart.

Geo. Do you think CB sale rumors just before CPI/G-7and FOMC is coincidence. Thoughts. It sounds like they are gearing up for target practice and we should expect an all out effort to kill gold over the next two weeks. Maybe explains why bonds so happy. If it holds up at all during this time period it will be very bullish. It appears a concerted deliberate attack has begun. Thoughts GSC or anyone?
As soon as the CB sale rumor was out I knew the raid ala Australia would be on. How long will this dog hunt?

September 16, 1997

Placer rejects Cristinas settlement option

TORONTO, Sept 16 ( Reuter ) - Placer Dome Inc said on Tuesday it had no interest in negotiating a settlement with Crystallex International Corp to end a dispute over the Las Cristinas gold project in Venezuela.

Vancouver-based Placer and Crystallex are currently embroiled in an ownership fight over the gold property, potentially the richest gold mine in Latin America.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/PLACERPDGTO-REJECT.html

WW: I don't know if the moon had anything to do with today, it certainly should not be dismissed. In any event, I have been involved in markets since 1962 and today seemed like a bear market rally. They always have had a violent characteristic to them. If we go to a new high of course I will be wrong about that evaluation. By every conceivable measure however, there is far more risk in stocks than in gold and precious metals.

WW: I have no doubt the western CBs and their Wall Street allies are still battling gold tooth and claw. This is as natural as the sun rising in the east.

But, as I have said many times, the CBs and their hedge fund allies can keep gold down only as long as investor demand remains depressed. When investor demand takes off ( perhaps because some smart money detects signs of a real crash ) the gold bull will be on regardless of what the CBs do or don't do. But for now, they are still calling the shots. The tape will tell when the paradigm starts to shift.

The question is how much and for how long can the powers that be sufficiently influence the movement of capital.? This should be the debate because it appears to be the controlling factor in MY OBSERVATION of the marts. Are the G-7 and the world really united?
Are we fooling ourselves and it is WAll St using derivitives to keep things in line while the Pols and public clap? Is it the Fed using a secret rescue acct to head off trouble. What if the rescue ( stks/bonds ) and suppression ( metals/sometimes currencies ) fund is inexhaustible. How long does it go on. Maybe they know we are going through a new Tech revolution and the plan is to use the marts to avoid what normally results in social and economic disruption ( historically for those in power ) . EX 1890-1920 End of robber barons rise of labor. We have to ask what it is they are trying to prevent from rising up. This is about more than mkts.

Indonesia postpones 63 trillion rupiah worth of projects.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/16/y0008_y00_1.html

Has anybody been following open interest on the comex? Looks like something is setting up?

Pakistan sees strong demand for gold and silver. Prices rise in local currency terms.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/15/z0009_11.html

( sent to one, not appreciating the world-reality, of us gold-bugs: )

To blame all the miseries, violence, desecration, exploitation, + mayhem
of human kind, perpetrated
at the hands of one another; as to being caused by "gold"...
I ask you, instead, to consider, just for a moment,
that it may be "greed", and not "gold"
that deserves your terrible, magnificent rhyme ( poem ) .

Some one, some time, some where ago, said:
we are a nation a economic illiterates;
( and yet we are supposed to be the leader of the 'free' world. )

And reading your poem, "Gold Fever", I believe, more than ever,
it is so.

It is not gold, that history will attribute ( & already has -- would we
but, objectively, patiently, review it ) , such mayhem & misery to; but
the crush of greed & fear & dominance-driven men, that rupture this
blood across the land, in past, and in present day cities, villages,
country-side & dens.

When removing one's emotions, to shed light rather than heat, upon this
track-record of the history of gold: as civilizations rise & fall,
we might find that 'honest money', is the best hope for balance,
integrity, moderation, in commerce & trade flourishing. It is THIS, that
would bring productive well being, to the most of us, one and all.

For, in the world of the material, and physical realms, ( - which are
perhaps, but a reflection & by-product of the veritable expression, &
qualities of the spiritual realm, and the reality of 'god' ) : it is those
things of money & commerce that are real things, just as those similar
ideas, values, qualities, & characters of humankind, that exhibit the
qualities of 'god'.....:

durability, persitence, steadfastness, faith, endurance,
unchanging-ness, loyalty, commitment, devotion, love;
order, balance, moderation, restraint, peace;
purity, integrity, honesty.

The ills of the world, all its miseries, exploitation, mayhem & murder,
arise not from 'gold', but from the nature of human-kind gone a-wry:
seeking the false kindgom of ignorance, & of ego's pride, in rebellion
against the god of the very true nature of our true being.

Gold is but a reflection of the true god, of who and what we really are,
in the material realm and game of life:
honorable, with just qualities of the god of spirit, love, law, creation,
service, abundance, joy and peace.

You cannot judge a book by looking at the cover. It requires a willing,
open-minded, patient exloration into the history of gold in civilzation;
and a growing understanding of how governments when they get- & grow-out
of-hand, it is because they reflect the dishonesty & greed of petty/lost
men, -- out of touch with their own souls.

When we begin to comprehend, and understand this; we begin to recognize
and appreciate, the essential importance of honest-money, which so-far,
has been historically demonstrated, to be only -- gold based-money.

In the universe of human-kind and of our reality in space & time on this
earth, of rising & falling civilizations: this realm of the material world -- of survival, work, livelihood, entrepreneurship, productivity; of economies, commerce & trade -- all of these depend, ultimately, on a
foundation of basic integrity within human-beings, reflected in their
money -- a medium of exchange, and a store of value -- the specie of the
realm of the world -- that everyone can trust, and agree on. It is this,
and only this, that will, ultimately provide the foundation, that
under-girds all this busy game of money & material-life, and of
human-kind on this earth.

In truth, for justice to rule the civilizations of human-kind, it by
necessity, requires, as pre-requisite: a unit of money, a specie, that is
both a store of value, and a medium of exchange, that the entire world --
red, black, yellow, white, and every shade in betwixt & between -- can
come to agree on, and trust. So far, throughout history, that has only
been gold ... and&/or currencies & credit-instruments, defined in weights
of gold..... ( -and not periodically altered, changed, manipulated ) .

Best Wishes,
David
goldfevr@pacbell.net

Microsoft's banker, Goldman Sacs, reports record earnings. Vice Chairman, Robert Ruben has kept his promise, to represent his clients even better, in his new position, as Secretary of the Treasury. Secretary Ruben's expertise is currency trading. He was appointed either the day before or the day after the Peso collapsed. The largest investment banker in Mexico, at the time, was Goldman Sacs.

September 16, 1997

Canada's top central banker hints at rate hike

BOSTON, Sept 16 ( Reuter ) - Bank of Canada Governor Gordon Thiessen said on Tuesday that the central bank would be looking to put the brakes on Canada's growing economy to prevent any resurgence of inflation.
Economists said the top central banker's comments, which helped strengthen the Canadian dollar, pointed to one or more rate hikes by the Bank of Canada before the end of the year.

Thiessen told a business group in Boston that with firm Canadian growth absorbing slack in the economy, the central bank would be seeking to tighten monetary conditions.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/CANADA-RATES.html

Full moon rising over Scaterie Island... beautiful!!

I, for one, got out of SSC today ( at a profit ) . I am convinced that "THEY" ( whoever that is ) can knock the @#$% out of the price of Gold and Silver anytime that they want to ... with derivatives ... or whatever. I watched silver ccccclllliiimmmbbbb up slowly only to be knock down in minutes. Until these markets can operate as "free" markets, without manipulation ... then I'm hanging out on the sidelines...which I hope is not forever!! I agree with GC ... don't fight the tape ...

( Only in Canada, you say. Rate, rise -Unemployment down- Production up )

Tuesday, September 16, 1997

Canada's economy to widen lead over G7

TORONTO, Sept 16 ( Reuter ) - Growing consumer confidence, low interest rates and tame inflation will make the Canadian economy the envy of other G7 nations in 1998, said a Canadian bank forecast released on Tuesday.

Toronto-Dominion Bank predicted in its quarterly forecast that Canada, which is outperforming the other G-7 nations this year, would widen its lead next year.

"The prospects for the Canadian economy have rarely looked brighter," said Ruth Getter, senior economist with TD.
"We have low inflation, low interest rates, rising employment, strong consumer and business confidence and a quickly vanishing government deficit. That is an environment that can support a fairly long period of sustained economic growth," Getter said.
Strong economic growth in the next two years would provide a windfall for Canada's unemployed, the bank said. Canada's unemployment rate is 9 percent.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/MoneyNews/sep16_tdjobs.html

September 16, 1997

Corporate groups push for more litigation reform

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - Corporate executives and officials at leading technology companies Tuesday urged House lawmakers to back a bill designed to stop securities lawsuits from migrating to state courts.

So far, 43 Republicans and 38 Democrats have agreed to co-sponsor the new legislation, which was introduced in the spring by Rep. Rick White, a Republican from Washington, and Rep. Anna Eshoo, a California Democrat, the group said.

The group has also been influential in the Senate as Senators Phil Gramm, a Republican from Texas, Chris Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, and Pete Domenici, a Republican from New Mexico, are expected to introduce similar legislation this month.

According to the Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks political contributions, Reps. White and Eshoo were among the top 10 House recipients of computer industry political action and individual contributor money during the 1996 election campaign.

Senator Gramm was one of the top 10 Senate recipients of such funds, the center found.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/LAWSUITS.html

Monday September 15 5:06 PM EDT

Central banks must keep eye on inflation -- Jordan

SAN FRANCISCO, Sept 15 ( Reuter ) - Central banks should work to maintain the purchasing
power of a given currency in an effort to keep inflation in check, said the president of the Federal
Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Jerry Jordan.

``The ability to create money carries with it a moral obligation to maintain its purchasing
power...inflation is repudiation,'' Jordan told an audience gathered here for a conference on Asian
economies.

The Cleveland Fed president did not include any remarks about the current state of the U.S.
economy in his speech.

Strad Master ( 17:12 ) Great sensitive post!!!....your priorities are "right on"....6Pak: Noticed the Canadian Dollar bounced a bit ( up ) today and your news explains the rise...Do you think the Canadian Dollar has already hit its low versus the U.S.of A Dollar and is now starting a long-term uptrend??

September 16, 1997

Soybeans soar on tightness, gold drops on CPI
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/COMMODITIES.html

Evening Donald.....13 degrees ( C ) ....bright full moon shining on a very calm ocean....Whatta day.....Whatta night!...Dec.Gold down .30 @ 322.50..
Aurator: That 13 jazz was for YOU mate.....

Nomercy, you are correct "Ruben's friends" are getting out. Remember yesterdays post, Microsoft's exec. warns stock price to high. Ruben is there banker - Goldman Sachs. Go GE-MSNBC-Rockefeller. Who is buying all of that CB Gold that Ruben is telling them to sell?

I'm not at all sorry I was too chicken to short silver, even with the drop today. COMEX warehouse stocks down another 4.5 million ounces to 152 million. Someone is taking delivery of the stuff. If someone makes a play on the warehouse stocks, silver could soar. I worry though that it will suffer under the weight of gold. The charts say 4.45 should be the downside. We should see a test tomorrow if the dollar is as strong as today. The low inflation numbers are adding nails to the gold coffin. Look for an announcement soon on just which European CB is selling 200 + tons. I said in June that I suspect Germany would be a seller this year and I think they will go public soon. I'm keeping my gold shorts and will add to them above 325.

TED: Hello to you as well. Going to confuse me with that centigrade stuff are you? Well we are 22 right now. Up to 79F earlier but a very nice breeze all day. I will have to go out and check the moon. Want to make sure the Asians put it back together right.

LGB, thanks for doing some independent checking into Y2K, and yes, my
hat off for your posting what you found. You pretty much summarized my
argument for problem with Y2K ... thinking in many companies "we have
enough time, somebody else will take care of the problem, etc." not a big
technical problem, just a tedious work which takes time.

BTW, congratulation on your gain today. I hate to say that I had
intention to put more money back into market yesterday "I was planning at
20% of my MM money", unfortunately I was a "fatality of Y2K", I was so
busy that I did not find a time to make a call :- ( . Now I am leery to do
it because I think that today's gain was too big to continue.

Part of my yesterday's busy schedule included meeting folks from OMB
and congressman Horn's commission dealing with Y2K. Same people
who put out the latest report grading the gov. progress and cutting the
future IT spending for some agencies. Things will get worse before they
get better.
BTW, Y2K won't increase deficit too much, most of the fed. work on Y2K
must be covered by reprogramming money from existing IT budgets.
Estimate for fixing Y2K in fed. government is still too low and you will
see it growing.

WSJ commodity report ( for what its worth ) :
September 16, 1997

Soybeans Hit Six-Month High
On Firm Demand, Frost Threat

An INTERACTIVE JOURNALNews Roundup

Soybean futures prices jumped to six-month highs
Tuesday on the Chicago Board of Trade as continued
strong demand taxed inventories ahead of a harvest that
forecasters now say could be reduced by an early frost.
Corn futures prices retreated, while wheat rose.

Soybeans for immediate use have become virtually
impossible to find as inventories fall to the lowest level in
20 years, said analyst Dale Gustafson at Smith Barney
Inc.

The National Oilseed Processors Association, in its
August usage report, revealed an unexpected sharp drop
in soybean oil inventories and implied usage hit a record
level. "The latest crush report showed a very dramatic
drawdown in [soybean] oil stocks, and with crop not yet
mature, there's a lot of concern about where new
supplies are going to come from,'' Mr. Gustafson said.

Rainfall that is delaying early harvesting in southern
regions and the U.S. Agriculture Department's report
Monday that crop conditions have declined in the past
week helped send nearby contract prices to six-month
highs.

Corn futures prices rose initially amid concern about frost
and declining crop conditions but fell to late fund selling.
Wheat futures prices rose on the strength of the soybean
market and amid talk that Pakistan and Iraq are looking
for U.S. wheat.

Soybeans for September delivery, which expires on
Friday, rose 47.5 cents to $7.82 a bushel, the highest
since March 14. The active November contract gained
12 cents to $6.4675 a bushel. December wheat added 3
cents to $3.725 a bushel; December corn fell 2.25 cents
to $2.635 a bushel.

In other commodity markets:

PRECIOUS METALS: Precious metals closed lower
Tuesday as bonds and stocks rallied on benign economic
data, which sent silver spiraling down and set a weak
tone for gold.

Gold was already under pressure from rumors milling in
the market that central banks in Europe were selling the
metal. The release early Tuesday of the consumer price
index, which reaffirmed that inflation in the U.S. remains
under control, helped push it even lower.

The index rose 0.2% in August, just short of economists'
predictions of a 0.3% rise. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average jumped 174.78 Tuesday to 7895.92. On the
Comex division of the Nymex, December gold dropped
$1.90 to $322.80 an ounce; December silver tumbled
12.7 cents to $4.615 an ounce.

ENERGY: Crude-oil and petroleum-product futures
finished solidly higher on the New York Mercantile
Exchange Tuesday, as bears fled after failing to push the
market lower.

October crude oil gained 34 cents to $19.61 a barrel;
October unleaded gasoline rose 0.82 cent to 59.04 cents
a gallon; October heating oil added 1.33 cents to 53.85
cents a gallon.

Players attributed buying to fundamental factors such as
the bombing of Colombia's largest oil pipeline, the
Cano-Limon, by leftist guerrillas and anticipation of
bullish crude data in the upcoming American Petroleum
Institute report, due out after Tuesday's close.














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Copyright  1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Eighteen years ago, when the Bull was dead, nobody would believe what's
happening today. Title of the story is "Death of Equities" ( 1979 ) ....

http://home.sprynet.com/sprynet/fiendbea/deatheq.htm

The best I can offer. The street suggests that the USofA-Canada trade
agreement, back room deal, is that the Canadian dollar will not rise
above 80 cents. USofA, requires Canada's raw resources on the cheap.

APH
Congrats on your Saturday post! Oldman needs no further congradulations, since he's already congradulated himself by bragging about his $50K profit.

"Oldman - Going to try and buy the SPZ7 at 931.5 or better Mon. morning or Sunday night, looking for a rally into Tues. close. After that I'll be looking to sell, ideally above 955 basis Sept, but any price that makes sense at that point."

I've been lurking here for the past two and a half months, and have to say that there's never a dull moment here at Kitco. I'm also impressed by the professionalism of some to the contributors. Now on to business.

First, I wouldn't be too hard on Mr. Puetz for making what I feel to be a truly gutsy market call, and most empressively, sticking by his call. Even though things didn't turn out the way he called them, please remember he is human, and human's make mistakes. I haven't met one who hasn't. Besides, maybe the only thing wrong with his market call may be the timing.
Now, as for some of you who feel that astronomical "bodies" or "events" don't affect people, I disagree. I've had some strange experiences with certain lunar and planetary alignments and events in the past, the most notable being one that occurred before the Northridge earthquake. That strange experience occurred the week before the quake. I experienced the worst backache and "sour" stomach in my life that week. At the time, I didn't know what was causing my troubles, but a co-worker of mine who dabbled in astrology mentioned something about a heavy duty planetary alignment in my sun sign ( Capricorn ) , and that that was possibly contributing to my ill health. Well, to make a long story short, I ended up going to a chiropractor ( highly recommended, just make sure he or she is good ) about three days before the quake to get some relief from the pain and to be able to get some sleep. The day before the quake, the backache came back, although not with the same intensity as before. After the earthquake hit, my backache vanished ( and hasn't come back since, thank GOD ) .

Now I'm not saying that the planets or the moon caused the Northridge earthquake or my backache. Maybe it was coincidence. But looking back, it sure seems a strange.

As for the lunar eclipse that took place today, it may have no bearing on what happened today or what might happen in the future with the market ( or the world, for that matter ) . On the other hand, maybe we haven't seen all the fallout from this event. As with the Northridge earthquake, the effects of an astronomical event, if there are any, may manifest themselves immediately and/or be delayed in time. It may be the same here.

One another note, and I may be wrong, but I believe the Moon, with all its gravitational muscle, was at its closest to the Earth a day or two before the Northridge earthquake. Maybe coincidence, but than again, who knows. Thought I'd mention it as the Moon is at perigee later this week.

Last, but not least, yes, I lost a little on some of my gold stocks today ( primarily the majors ) , but actually had a couple of junior issues ( VGZ, CUSIF ) go UP by the end of the day ( and the eclipse ) .

Donald, The Cleveland Fed president statements, sound like a rate hike to me. Cleveland the home of BP the former Standard Oil of Rockefeller, the home of the guy that got Clinton out of the draft. The home of GEs Neela Park ( sp.? ) . Get ready to Rock-n-Roll.

Thankx for the answer!!...Studies I've read say .80 is about fair value so we're almost 10% undervalued @ .73 ....Yeah, U.S.of A probably does want to keep those resource costs down.....I ain't complaining as my U.S. buck goes far here.....

Miro - since you seem to know alot about the Y2K thing, I have a question for you. I'm thinking of buying a used-but-newer PC for my kids and a used-but-newer notebook computer for myself. Are there any Y2K factors I should be aware of? Thanks for your help.

STRAD: 17:12 - "For what does it profit a man if he gaineth the world, but loseth his soul?" A beautiful post.

To all - I have not posted for awhile because I have been busy taking advantage of the current markets, but not in the way that most of you are doing. My background is as a geologist. As such, I recognize certain events in the cycle of exploration for metals. You all are aware of the drop in gold and silver prices and the drop in prices of your favorite resource stocks ( ouch! ) , but you are not aware of where the real opportunity lies. You can invest your funds in the physical metals themselves and hope for a thirty percent return. You can invest your money in existing mining stocks, but they all have their own sets of problems, mostly debt! Or, you can invest your money where the real bloodbath has been, and that is in gold and silver properties or companies who are acquiring them. That is where my money is. I expect returns of twenty to one or more.

It is nice to see people like Oldman make a quick 50K based on his market experience, but I notice that he must have sold today, thus expecting no more upside?

Many of you are chasing this market with puts and getting your head handed to you. You know you are right, so you keep putting your money up. ( ouch again! )
In 1987 I had 150 OEX puts. The brokers in the office used to call me "Papa Bear". My puts expired worthless in August and September. ( another big ouch ) . I don't know if Puetz is right on today being the start of the crash or not, but I do believe that he is right in the direction, as do almost all who visit this site. The good times don't last forever, nor do the bad ones!

I do know that Comex gold and silver stocks are falling dramatically For example, Comex silver stocks are a bit over 152 million ounces as compared to 200 million ounces at the start of the year. ( Now I am a silver bull. ) Comex gold stocks are a bit of a different animal with only about 1.1 ounces of gold pledged to cover each 100 ounce contract. World gold consumption is at or near record highs, exceeding mine production by about 100 tons per month. With the low gold price, many mines are shutting down, some never to open again. But, for sure, a huge amount of good exploration and development projects are being skuttled. This is where I see the real opportunity!

The stock markets of the world can not go up forever, nor can gold and silver stocks dwindle forever. There real leverage is in owning the metal in the ground.
My e-mail address is real.

HIGHRISE: I have heard that there are some sharp divisions within the Fed on the rate hike issue.

I just saw this on CNN. Do you have children who are interested in learning about investing but are confused and overwhelmed by how complicated it is? Show them http://www.younginvestor.com/ . The site might even warrant a visit by those who are old, confused, and overwhelmed ( like me ) . But goldbugs beware. This site touts paper, not gold.

Zardoz: re urs of 12:10 I add outstanding currency to national debt and divide by gold in Treasury ( supposed ) and I reckon gold to be above $22,000/oz. Am I wrong to count debt along with currency?

September 16, 1997

Placer sees gold rebound

TORONTO, Sept 16 ( Reuter ) - Canada's Placer Dome Inc predicted on Tuesday that the turmoil in gold markets would be short-lived and said it had no plans to follow rival Barrick Gold Corp and shut mines.

Placer Chief Executive John Willson also forecast higher earnings next year, due mainly to low-cost production from its joint-venture Pipeline project in Nevada. "We think demand for gold is there and it will continue to be a very desirable financial asset," Willson told reporters in Toronto today.

Despite the "hoopla""over the Reserve Bank of Australia's gold sales, he said central banks had sold about only 10 percent of their reserves over the past 30 years. "I simply don't believe they are going to be selling at a much greater rate," Willson said.

Placer Dome's stock was off 0.30 at 20.95 in afternoon turnover of more than 520,000 shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/PLACER-PDGTO-SEES.html

Mr Peutz:: Hurry,Hurry,Hurry Change your crash scenario to the pending
mini-war between Israel and the Palestinians. That should be the
trigger. If that does'nt work try the coming Y2K crisis.
Anything but that voodoo that you and Sheller cater to.
Tsk. Tsk. Tsk, Grown men believing in ghosts!!!

ARDEN: Thanks for that post. Do you have an opinion on BGO? It was up 1/8 today on more than 700,000 ( US ) shares.

Arden is very much on the mark. The real profits to be made at this stage of the current precious metal/paper asset inversion is from the ground up. That is, to option and/or purchase ore bearing properties which are now available for dirt, literally. There are opportunities for the investor who can understand, and take, a corporate and project-oriented perspective. Profits far beyond what can be made in the normal "civilian" market opportunities. Brother Arden has a world of experience behind him, and he knows whereof he speaks. He is a very rewarding source of information and mining strategies for the investor willing to go a level deeper into the mining business. His e-mail address is a rare opportunity to inquire about the "real world" of getting precious metal out of the ground. I heartily recommend taking him up on it.

I was going to mention "Your" dollar, but, I thought it best not to
mention such. As your a guest, and didn't want to be offend. : ) : ) : ) : )

JRL,
are you buying from a dealer or from individual. Dealer should have
better knowledge if the model is compliant or not ( though ignorance
to this problem in local shops is amazing "Y2K what?" )
I would ask if the model has Y2K compliant BIOS.
Go and check the following web page. It does have references and
statements from most manufacturers on market
http://www.wa.gov/dis/2000/survey/dt_hard/dthrdlst.htm

Unfortunately, many of them tell you since XX date our models are compliant, before that, tough luck.
As far as software goes, try to get machine with latest releases of software, e.g., Windows 95, etc. MS windows 3.x have a problem in file system, nothing spectacular but could be confusing. You can check
http://www.wa.gov/dis/2000/survey/dt_soft/dtsftlst.htm
for statements and references from software manufacturers.

WW: The fact that an anti-establishment figure like you is toying with the idea that the elite can keep paper soaring and gold drooping forever provides additional evidence that the end is near.

Stocks will keep going higher and gold will keep dropping somewhat longer, but the paradigm is going to shift, and probably soon. Puetz erred only in his timing and his anticipated rate of decline. Don't fight the tape, but don't give up your long run investment convictions either.

TO all, Notice the date formats on the new frames version. I would venture a guess that the Kitco computers are already Y2K compliant.

Yea ARDEN, please tell me and Donald about BGO.
I got a self dir. RRSP full of BGO shares. Going nowhere fast.
If this keeps up, it'll be freedom 75 for me.
Ain't Bema suppose to be the next Barrick?
Thank You in advance

David -- Your 18:50; That IS the bottom line! That's what it's all about!
Without metal currencies, There cannot be anything but theft, corruption and the stealing of liberties. 'Nuff said! Thanks!

XAU chart -- Do you notice the trend?

"Modern economists" say it would be foolish for Japan to invest its US$800 billion surplus in gold bullion.
http://www.csmonitor.com/todays_paper/graphical/today/econ/econ.2.html

Quite a day in the bond market...
Front -- I tried to shrink this one a little. Let me know if you can read it without scrolling or if it's still too big. :- )

dec. gold down .50 @ 322.50 6Pak ( 20:12 ) John Wilson ( PDG ) ain't no Peter Munk....is runnin PDG literally into the ground...ironic..eh! ( 20:21 ) My dollar...yer dollar...
our dollar...Don't consider myself a "guest"...just the gov'ment puts me in that catagory!....why can't I be a political refugee from the U.S.of A
.....?? ...

PANDA: The proprieter of this XAU chart is a bit more optomistic.
http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/Ratio.html

Daily gold chart. It looks like the direction of the pennant has resolved ( As though there was a doubt? ) :- (

Front -- Shrank this one too!

Panda -- As long as XAU doesn't break below the low previous to the last one, I think it 'should' be primed for a good move up! That's fairly close to current numbers! That's how I'll look at it right up until that low gets broken. IF that low gets taken out, then it will probably fall to the previous low before an attempt at recovery is made.

PANDA: Re XAU chart, are you looking at that inverse Head n' Shoulders ( and I don't mean shampoo ) with the right shoulder getting completed now? Sort of a larger version of what transpired at the turn of '95.

Donald -- I've gone back to straight T.A. and fundamental research for stock picking. I can't fight the momentum anymore, it costs too much. This was a good rally in the equities today. The answer still isn't in yet though. We've got to take the old highs, or else... GROWL! ( As in bear ) Right now, stocks up and gold down. As to the comments about oldman, I believe he is a daytrader of spoos. As such, a trade may last minutes, hours, the day, but I doubt more than a few days. In day-trading, if you get 2500+ spoo points, TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN!

Donald - I believe that BGO is Bema, is that not correct? A stock I recommended to a few of the members of this group last July. I am sorry I did not have the intestinal fortitude to post my beliefs to the whole group then. Bema has a wonderful looking proerty but it is a loooong way from production. The infrastructure necessary to support such a project is very expensive. They will not be able to do it themself, but will most likely be taken over by someone who can. In this market, at or below current share price. Most likely candidate is Placer Dome. All of this is just MHO.

I have enjoyed your posts and information tremendously. It is nice to see someone post and ignore the inane chatter of some others.

Zar,your 11:31 is interesting; math is ok by me, go back and compare with Donalds if you like, he came up with .024 cents@ 42.22 per oz.excluding,as you said, credit ( i.e.M3 ) ,. I find your thinking of how we would be regarded if we raised our reserve valuation interesting. The world's governments are playing in concert these last days of the 20th the tune of almost inconcieveable arrogance:there is nothing they can't solve,fix,or create a law to squelch, so the popular ( people's ) thought of a commodity backed currency is to"them" repugnant to say the least. Eventually, even the most liberal economists must fess up that.. well.. yes, for most of history ( the recorded part anyway ) ,has "in the past, repeated itself.A market like this however is like being hit in the head repeatedly with a claw hammer: it sure fells good when it stops!
Hey Panda! I'm sure glad you posted that XAU chart as I'm relieved to know it can ONLY go to 80!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ARDEN: Thank you for your kind words. Yes, BGO is Bema. What you say tracks 100% with everything I have heard. Thanks for taking the time to reply.

Panda -- Right with the pennant. However, it still has to break what support it still has, and Dec gold has been down at/near 319 at the beginning of this pennant formation. Let us see what it does with it. Perhaps tomorrow we'll see. Cycle low should be very close at hand too, for whatever that might be worth.

Mike Sheller, Eldorado -- The 'fun' money is gone. Gold, silver, Platinum, the XAU and assorted stocks will have to prove themselves to me. I like to 'bottom fish', but damn! Those 'Gators bite! And they have big teeth too! :- )

BBL..

Ted, OK, as it shall be. A Political Refugee from the USofA.
In Canada, that is a United Empire Loyalist : ) : ) : ) : )

badger -- I was just being nice ( about 80, that is ) :- ) )

I still have a couple of positions left in PM stocks. Only because no will buy them! Oh well, when this worm turns... FWIW, I've noticed some curious buying/selling patterns in then PM stocks. It relates mostly to the exchanges that the stocks/options are traded on, and when they are traded. I don't know what to make of it yet, but it is curious. The bottom line is this, except for the majors ( ? ) , there isn't much liquidity these stocks. BBL..........

Panda -- Playing with futures is in my opinion easier to bottom fish with than stocks. Only takes virtual seconds to enter, exit or to change an order. Of course, that ease comes with the price of leverage. Can't be very wrong when you are wrong! There are typically decent signs that WILL suggest which way she's gonna go though, and in conjunction with decently placed orders, should CYA in the event it goes wrong.

Panda: You have some real crap commin yer way.....Dec. gold down .40 @ 322.40

Miro - Thanks so much for the info. I appreciate it.

An old saying:
A watched pot never boils.

Well, this couldn't be more true. Most days I can 'check-in' and WATCH the markets. Today I was so SWAMPED I couldn't even take a 'Growl'...
And look what happened. KABOOOOM! BAM! WHAM! POW! oh my!

Oldman - Congrats on the SPoo $$$

Strad - Just one guick comment and then back to the grind...pun intended. Your 17:12 you said "I set my stops exactly as recommended...[only to get stopped out and get reversed...]. I'm sorry bro' but if I may give my 1.5cents worth. Pitt dudes are seasoned and they read all the 'recommended' crap too. If they see these numbers on the floor they will certainly stop you out before reversing direction! THEY KNOW THESE NUMBERS. Glenn can probably attest to this, eh Glenn? Place your stops different from ANY recommended stops and you may survive a little more battles. More risk is entailed but you risk anyway by being IN the 'mix' in the first place. I have been stopped out MANY times ( thats why I trade mostly options ) and it sucks when it takes off and you're standing there holding you're shorties and looking very stooooopid.

Anyway. my 1.5 cents worth...

AWAY EB

Putting ones neck in the noose.
IMHO: next few days topping -
then 3 days down -
Then one day up -
then 3 days down -
Then CRASH.
10 days till major tank.

Cherokee: It's great out on the deck NOW....too bad you ain't here! you'd like "it"....Time for a little head phone action....

Evening Nick...I take it yer bearish on Bobby Rubin ( liked Jerry better! ) and Wall Street.....the street of dreams.....and nightmares!....crash you say...eh!...Go Fosters!

Ted: A political refuge from the US OF A. That makes you a fellow traveller of the people of that founded Canada and made it what it is today. The White House was stolen from some of those folks whose descendants now live near Kingston. They want restitution. Without people like you there would be no free brain surgery here today.

Wednesday September 17 1997
IMF to consider moves against speculators

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE The International Monetary Fund will consider
proposals to counter currency speculators nextweek by allowing governments to restrict the free circulation of capital, Belgian Vice-Prime Minister Philippe Maystadt said.

The restrictions, which will only be allowed in certain cases, will be considered when the IMF meets in Hong Kong. "We all fully agree on the goal of liberalising the capital flow but we think that for some countries it could take some time," he said.

"Countries who were believed to be unfair victims of speculators could be allowed to take temporary measures to restrain capital flow."

To my mates Nick, Nick, aurator, and Nick--here is a good site for what's what in Oz-- http://werple.net.au/~lions/index.html

Here is a ( monthly ) chart of the dollar index overlayed on the gold chart for the last 10 years. The inverse correlation between the two has only existed since 1995.

This one is mostly for RJ. Its an overlay of the PL-GC spread compared to the continuing gold chart for the past 10 years. Anyone see anything useful in it?

I copied this from the URL Donald posted earlier. I was taken back by language "TEND TO EMBRACE". I thought Hoshimoto ( sp? ) was just bluffing when he threated to sell US Securites and buy gold. Maybe not.

"Japanese policymakers, though actually knowing better, says Ostrom, tend to embrace what economic historians call mercantilism. The policy was a hallmark of post-feudal Europe, as many nations sought to encourage exports, block imports, and build up stocks of gold bullion. To modern economists such a policy looks foolish."

ALL: I didn't get a chance to read all of the posts from today -- until just recently. I was busy buying S&P put options today. I have been buying S&P puts for the last 4 weeks, but I waited for today to make my heaviest purchases. The market is poised for a crash. At this point, nothing has changed that. Here's my response to some of the comments on Kitco today.

1 ) My emphasis on the lunar eclipse is the fact that full-moons in general, and a special type of full-moon -- a lunar eclipse, have coincided with the starting point of virtually every market crash I have studied. I have determined that this relation-ship is non-random, using statistical analysis. I have not stated any theory as to why the relationship exists, merely that it does. Hence, the eclipse is a good TIMING indicator of when a crash might begin.

I have stated this observation before-the-fact here on Kitco, for credibility reasons. Stating it after the fact doesn't do much for credence.

Here is the record of the last 3 major crashes:

1980 gold -- Gold turned down and started to crash 2 trading days after a lunar eclipse.

1987 stocks -- DJIA turned down and started to crash 2 trading days before a lunar eclipse.

1990 Tokyo stocks -- Nikkei turned down and started to crash 3 trading days before a lunar eclipse.

In 1997, the optimum time for a crash to begin was around 2 p.m. eastern time today. The crash may miss the ideal starting point by a day or two, but the moment of truth has arrived. If the DJIA is still rallying by the end of the week, I'll throw in the toweel, and admit that the crash has been delayed to another day. For now, a crash still looks highly likely.


2 ) Virtually all crashes display a six-week topping pattern. Over this period, the market tends to make a series of decling peaks. The DJIA has done that. From its peak of 8259 on 8-6-97, the DJIA declined sharply, rallied back to a lower peak of 8021 on 8-20-97, made a lower low, then rallied back today to another lower peak at 7896.

Today, the DJIA close is EXACTLY 6 weeks after the 8-6-97 high. This fits the pattern of a crash perfectly.


3 ) Non-confirmations. During the 6-week topping period, one or more associated markets usually continue to rally to new all-time highs. In 1997, it's the secondary stocks and the Dow Transports. ( The DJIA, S&P 500, Dow Utilities, and bonds have not made new highs these past 6 weeks. )

In 1980, platinum was the market that kept going up into the 3rd peak ( 6 weeks after the primary peak ) -- until gold, silver, and platinum all crashed during March 1980.

In 1987, the NASDAQ was at an all-time high in early October, six weeks after the DJIA peaked.

In 1990, secondary stocks peaked about six weeks after the Nikkei.


4 ) International markets. Stock markets around the globe look more like the DJIA ( most of them worse than the DJIA ) than they look like the Russell 2000 index. The brewing international crisis in stocks, bonds, and currencies does not bode well for stocks in the US. Over the past 2 weeks, the overseas markets have enjoyed a pop-back rally like we have here in the US. But comparatively speaking, the rallies have been pathetic -- nothing but dead-cat bounces. Now that the short-term oversold conditions have been corrected, and short-term over-bought conditions have replaced them, we will see what transpires during the next 2-to-3 weeks.


5 ) Stocks remain grossly over-valued by virtually all historical measures.

6 ) Stocks remain bullishly leveraged like never before. One the next break, margin-calls will be issued like never before. See what happens then.

7 ) Option expiration week may have played a part in the rally today. For the past 10 years, there has been a strong upward bias in the DJIA during the early part of option-expiration week. The un-winding of options' postions ( before expiration ) somehow exerts an upward bias to stocks. After the postions are unwound, the gains are ofter giving back rather quickly. Here is the record for the DJIA during option-expiration week in 1997:

Month thru Wed Wed-Fri
----- -------- -------
Jan .... +23 ...... +107
Feb .... +32 ....... -89
Mar .... +42 ....... -73
Apr ... +286 ....... +24
May ... +117 ....... -92
Jun .... -64 ....... +82
Jul ... +117 ...... -148
Aug ... -103 ...... -234
--- ... ---- ...... ----
Avr..... +56 ....... -53

During the first 2 days of option-expiration week during September 1997, the DJIA is up 154 points. The odds favor a reversal by the end of this week.


8 ) The September-October period is a seasonall poor period for stocks. We a barely 1/4 of the way through the period.


ONE FINAL NOTE: To those who think that I have somehow throw in the towel, and conceded defeat, you are grossly mistaken. What has transpired so far these past 6 weeks fits the pattern of a crash perfectly.

Extremely bearish on stocks,
and looking for a crash,

Steve Puetz

Earl -- The Pl-Gc spread: One very obvious thing that's noticable is that the two come back together. Maybe gold goes up to do that or platinum comes down to do that. Also, sometimes gold actually gets to be more expensive. What's your take on that chart?

To Ozlanders At the very bottom of this site is a whole section devoted the the Y2K problem http://werple.net.au/~lions/index.html BTW this is the sister site to http://www.refdesk/com/ --you know, the site with the Year 2000 Countdown Clock. That site also is run by Matt Drudge's father.

Nite to all here and remember; "timeing is everything, just ask the Donner party"

Correction to URL for previous listing http://www.refdesk.com/

to Panda
For some strange reson,bulish triangles sometimes flash a false bear signals just prior to resuming an uptrend.It occurs during the fifth and last leg of the triangle.this phenomenom often occurs very close to the apex.It is characterized by a two-or three-day break to the downside on heavy volume after which prices will then just as sharply turn higher and resume the uptrend. Technical analysis of the futures markets J.Murphy

I might also add, today was a highly emotional day in the markets. Most of the bulls were euphoric, most of the bears were panicing.

Just by observing the comments here at Kitco, it's easy to get a feel for the tremendous emotions today. I'm sure LGB will have a condescending remark for this, but I doubt that the high-emotion day today was a coincidence. The highest emotions, and the biggest DJIA moves, occurred between the time of the eclipse -- from about noon to a little after the NYSE close.

LGB's own comment was something like -- the best day he's had in a long time. Oldman seemed very happy. Ted was chipper, too.

The bears seemed defensive and disturbed.

These lop-sided emotions won't remain. They are indicative of a turning point in the stock market.

Interesting posts over the last few hours. Some contributors being congratulated ( generally by themselves ) for making money from the 174 point Dow rally, others being denigrated because the market rallied. The focus seems to be becoming more and more short term. Those who are making money from rising stock and bond markets don't understand why they are making money but are celebrating their investment skill, which is OK while it lasts. Those who probably have a better understanding of economic fundamentals have been sucked in to making short term forecasts and have lost some credibility.

Price action over the last 2 months indicates that the US stock market is close to a peak and will correct over the next few months. I won't venture a guess on the exact timing except to say that the Princeton Economics computer has been forecasting for some time that this week would see a panic cycle ( a panic cycle is a large up move followed by a large down move, or vice versa ) .

The positive posts regarding silver by some experienced traders on this forum are puzzling to me. To me, the silver market appears extremely weak. I seldom trade PM futures and have minimal expertise in this area, but am currently short silver primarily as a hedge against my gold stock portfolio. Every rally in silver over the last 2 years has fallen well short of the previous rally and the downside appears large ( in percentage terms, certainly much larger than for gold ) . Anyway, time will tell.

Cheers, Milhouse

Steve Puetz- I must admire your conviction and your history of coincidental indicators and think that the next few days here at Kitco shall be well worth the price of admission.

Hi, my dad says I could be the youngest boy to be in this internet. He told me about gold but why is an ounce of platinum more worth than a ounce of gold. I am 8 years old. Vytas

Eldo: Mostly I see an inverse correlation between the two. On all major moves they tend to move in opposite directions. For example, 87, 88, 90 and mostly now. I haven't a clue what it portends. ..... The spread tends to be slightly above zero. What happens if - as anticipated - PL rises significantly?? The rising spread would tend to indicate that gold is going lower. But is there really such a *long term* relationship? ...... Inquiring minds want to know. ..... : )

Just got off the phone with BGO Investors Relations - they're working late returning investor calls - and I reviewed my concerns with Andrea:

1 ) Barricks El Indio Andes project high costs shut-down plan for 1999;
2 ) Chilean 5% royalty on mines pending, and
3 ) Pre-feasibility study and prospects of Casale joint venture

Summary Discussion:

1 ) Barricks El Indio mine has been a producer since the 1970s and owned by three different mine companies. The geology is materially different than cerro Casale and there is comparison of the cost factors - the BGO Scoping Study is a 'worst case scenario'

2 ) BGO has been aware of the 5% Chilean royalty proposal for some time and they do not believe this proposed tax to be unwarranted or unfair however untimely. The end result may well be a more harmonious relationshp with the Chilean govt and people, especially the miners.

3 ) BGO expects a joint venture partner to bid for Arizona Star ( 51% owner of Casale + Three Amigos ) first and then BGO will consider vending its remainder 49% share of Casale to the acquirier. BGO has every intention, however to become a major miner so it prefers to mine the Casale find with the jt venturer as it now does with Amax and the Refugio mine.

Hope this helps.

What a beautiful moon out tonight splashing its beams across Lake Ontario. Who says there ain't a God ?!

Cheers.

Mike K. -- I agree with that! Been there, seen it, done it, and didn't like it! It also fits with my scenario of a washout JUST before a big runup. Also might correspond with the Puetz crash scenario, since the stocks broke up out of that triangle. It'll certainly be most 'interesting' this week, and you won't find me 'napping'! It all depends on how it actually treats the breakout within a short time span.

Steve Puetz -- You 'ain't' done yet in my book!

Correction: ABX's El Indo mine in Chile is "no" comparison cost-wise to the much lower costs of producing gold from BGO's Cerro Casale find.

Cheers

The question of Gold price and Platinum price is a good one. PS--My guess regarding Dad--Does he play a fiddle?

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

If it can make a Bottom here, It will be above the July Low
and we have a Technical Toe Hold for the Upside.

mike k -- Thanks for the input. One thing is for certain, we will find out! :- )

Earl -- At this point, I confess to being clueless about everything! Eldorados' comments on the PL/GC spread sound historically correct to me. I think you can use the ratio as an over-sold/over-bought indicator. This, from me, at clueless. :- )

Peutz -- Euphoria? Look, the bond market had one hell of a rally today. Everone believes that inflation is DEAD. I disagree with that. BUT, the market has infinite capitol in comparison to my capitol. Therefore, the market is correct and I am wrong. I can choose to continue to be wrong and lose more of my money, or change direction. At some point, you will be correct in a market decline. I foresee a long, grinding bear. You see a crash. This is just a difference of opinion, we both agree that there is trouble brewing here.

Earl -- Taking into account only the history that is portrayed on that chart, I believe I wouldn't necessarily be long platinum and short gold, given the amount of spread between the two, but who knows. There certainly seem to be a bit more 'obvious' problem involved in platinum delivery, but that news may just be for speculator consumption. Who knows for sure. I do not believe it is 'done' moving up yet. Maybe that means gold will play catch up! When? That chart doesn't give much in the way of clues.

Is the US government killing the mining industry? http://helios.cr.usgs.gov/summit.web/summit.htm

Puetz: I haven't read anything that you posted recently to confirm it but I take it from others posts that you have said the crash starts Wednesday? Is this correct? I mean did yiu say it?

TED -- What did you mean by your 21:55? Weather?

To All -- FWIW, the price spike in gas for the month of August was HUGE. Portents? A lot of things are being dismissed for the bull case in stocks. I think we may have a problem on the move with El Nino for starters. Also, don't forget that this Friday is the Triple Witch. What are there more of? Calls or Puts? Which will be offered as as a sacrifice to the SnP gods? :- )

Puetz -- I've done SnP Options. Brutal game! $$OWWW!

Welcome Vytas!....Someone answer Vytas's ( 23:03 ) question!...Selby ( 22:28 ) Am definently a "fellow traveller"....Puetz: Yeah, I'm feelin pretty chipper but....VOLATILITY is the name of the game today and we very well could reverse direction soon ( like tomorrow mornin ) .....but I still don't see an all-out crash occurring any time soon....maybe a looong drawn out bear market but not Armageddon on Wall Street....time will tell .....eh!...

Vytas: You might look at gold and platinum from this point of view:

1. The amount of gold available for sale is larger than for platinum.

2. Compared to the relative amount, of each, available for sale; there are more sellers than buyers for gold and more buyers than sellers for platinum. ....... Platinum is in short supply and many people want to buy it.

Good night all. Wednesday and Thursday have economic numbers. Friday doesn't have any reports, but then again, those three witches were seen flying about! :- ) )

Sent ya an e-mail......

As I have posted ad nauseum on El Nino, one more won't matter, eh? El Nino begins with a pronounced and sustained warming of the Eastern Pacific in Tropical Latitudes. That in turn stops the Trade Winds that normally blow East to West. As a reult, moisture laden air does not go to Indonesia and Australia, but instead goes to Latin America and Western North America. There is no consensus on what causes the warmnig to begin with, though. Since it does occur regularly, and has done so for as long as they have records, it must be some undiscovered cycle. Fascinating, eh?

Panda-- re: your gold chart of 21:11. I am not so sure it is "resolved" in the downward direction. I would like to see that lower red line connected to closing prices rather than intradays. It may be scraping along the bottom, but many a rally has started from just such a point. I would like to see a "decisive" move one way or the other.

Auric--many thanks for that great Aussie site. You are another of the veritable founts of info on this great site!!

Puetz--the euphoria and emotion Ted was feeling had nothing to do with the share market today. It's that Fosters lager he's been drinking!!

Nick@Aussie--a very bold prediction ala Peutz about the crash within 10 days. I like people who put their necks' in the noose. There are a lot of people with broken necks running around--but at least you know where they stand.

Fundy: I have said a lot of things, but I have been vague on the exact timing of when the crash will start. Hear are some of the things I have said:

1 ) The moment of truth has arrived. The eclipse theory and the 6-week topping pattern both indicate that today is the ideal final-peak for the stock market. In the past, this ideal turn point has been anywhere from 5 days early to 2 days after a full-moon or eclipse. If the stock market is still rallying by friday, at that point, I am flat-out wrong about the crash starting now.

2 ) Once the crash starts, it will be lightning-quick. It will last from 2-to-3 weeks. There have been a couple of cases where the crash stretched out as long as 6 weeks -- but this is the exception.

3 ) In the September 15th letter that I just mailed out ( to 150 Kitco followers ) , I explain why there are only two possible outcomes to the current mania. 1 ) Stocks must keep going up, or 2 ) Stocks must crash.
A gradual bear market is IMPOSSIBLE in the present environment.

I hope this clarifies what I have said.

Hi Earl! Thankx for answering Vytas's question.....Hope yer still not painting that damn house....

Vytas -- Platinum is much more rare than gold and requires many more man hours to extract and refine. But, even at that, sometimes you can buy it at a cheaper price than gold.

RJ...... Caught in the Act!!!
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/rjwedge.jpg

Vytas: Now you have TWO good answers to your question....Dec.Gold down .50 @ 322.30....Good night ALL!

Labas Vytas, Is kur tu esi????

Vytas-- the reason that platinum is more expensive than gold is very simple. There is a little bit of gold in most peoples back yards, but it is very difficult to find and dig up. Platinum is also very hard to find and dig up -- but there are TWO big boys that have almost ALL of it in THEIR back yards. These two boys are pretty smart. They only sell a little bit of it at a time so that it will STAY very expensive. If everyone on the block had platinum in their back yards, it would be a lot cheaper.