September 18, 1997

Latins must halt corruption for higher growth-IMF

HONG KONG, Sept 18 ( Reuter ) - Latin America must embrace a second generation of corruption-fighting reforms to achieve needed seven to eight percent annual growth, IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus said on Thursday.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/IMF-LATAM.html

September 17, 1997

Vietnam says counting on more support from donors

Donors pledged a record $2.4 billion in aid for Vietnam at the last meeting, taking commitments since the country returned to the fold of the international financial community in 1993 to $8.5 billion.

The World Bank itself has been one of Hanoi's biggest donors, disbursing some $370 million in loans and grants since 1994.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/VIETNAM-AID.html

About an hour or so ago a powerful earthquake, measuring 5.9 on the Richter Scale, hit northern Indonesia. http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/091797/world6_406.html

Oldman -
I was saddened to read your post about leaving. I have been touched by your enthusiasm and thoughtful perceptiveness. I also am from the mining industry ( albeit Australia ) and have paid my dues in Mount Isa, Hammersley ( Dampier ) , and Bougainville, among other places. You clearly have a gift for trading and much to teach. It is a sorry state of affairs when unknown people set out to destroy for the enjoyment of destruction. I hope you will return after these clowns move on.

Hey, Nick, Nick, aurator, and Nick--I say, are you guys up yet? Found this place off that Oz site http://geography.miningco.com/ Lots of good science there, mates!

From Fiend Superbear webpage - "a monster bond rally" drove 30-year
rates below 6.4%.

I told you so. : )

go greenspan. raah. raah.

To LGB: OK LGB is not JollyMiller or Hepcat. OR you have recently gone through the witness relocation program.

To StradMaster: A lot of effort goes into ensuring that the quotes we put on the internet remain accurate & reliable. The bid prices we display in the frames are not an indication but are Kitco's actual bid prices on which we base our purchases.

A few things you might want to ask your broker to help clear things up: When he says that Platinum remained unchanged on the day what does that mean? Could be any of the following:
a. ) That the last trading price was the same as the opening price although there may have been all kinds of flucuations in between.
b. ) That the market remained flat throughout the entire day with no flucuations whatsover.
c. ) That the last trading price was the same as the previous days' closing price.

Hang on, I've got more. These quotes are undeniable historical fact. You could safely say that the AM fix is a spot price equivalent at 5:00 AM New York time, and the PM fix is the same equivalent at 10:00 AM New York time. This is not an unchanging market as you can see.

Sep 17 London AM Platinum Fix: 421.00
Sep 17 London PM Platinum Fix: 420.00
Sep 16 London AM Platinum Fix: 426.00
Sep 16 London PM Platinum Fix: 424.00

One last thing about spot vs futures. Unlike futures quotes which, for PL come only from NYMEX, spot quotes are based on immediate physical delivery and can come from any dealer or bank who cares to quote them. They will be directly correlated to the future price, so if there is fluctuation in the futures market it will be mirrored in the spot market. There are around twenty or so major dealers who provide spot quotes through Reuters or other news service. Of those only a handful are constantly giving fresh quotes ( for PL ) through the market hours. Some days they don't bother quoting at all and other times the updates are few and far between.

I would ask your broker who the spot price contributer is ( he'll know ) and how often they freshened their quotes throughout the day ( he may not know ) . Then ask him to check the PL futures chart for the day in question ( he'll have it handy ) and ask if he's still of the opinion that PL remained unchanged.

If your broker can see the date and time associated with the spot quote in question then he should tell you. My guess is that he was looking at a stale quote from a contributer who decided to spend the last few nice days of summer on the golf course.

VGZ.TO holding firm @C$0.65 range on light trading. ELD.TO firming on heavy trading ( 1.4 million shares - wow! )

I have been told that low dividend yields are not relevant, this bull run, for determining if a stock is over priced because companies are buying back their stock instead of paying dividends.

Question: How does that help the remaining share holders? If a person is holding a blue chip stock for the long term, and they expect an income from that stock, can they expect to see higher dividends down the road because of the buy-back? Does the stock repurchased by the company disappear or does it stay in the float for later sale if needed?

The Central Banks won't 'break ranks'. They have no reason to,
Donald. You're imposing free market behavior on an oligopoly.

Won't happen. Not until there is substantially more pressure,
and the collapse has begun en mass.

Physical location is close to meaningless on the Internet. I
could easily appear to be in Pittsburgh if I wanted to.

Witness Relocation, my gold maple.

Who Cares: You could be right---- but Jolly knows Toronto.

Nikkei up a lot, but still below 18,000. Hang Seng down a percent or two.

I know L.A. Big deal. Besides, in case it hasn't occurred
to anyone, it's possible to be an instant expert these days,
with what's on-line.

Although. Personally, I think LGB and Hepcat are different.
They post and think differently. Perhaps, as a Hepcat/LGB
clone, I am more sensitive to the differences. : )

Go Greenspan. : ) How would it possible for the Federal Reserve
to mimic public-buying of bonds? Man, I am NOT suprised.

I watched Batra take in the shorts in '92, he was just off
by one year.

I watched James Grant take in the shorts in '93, even though
he WAS right. I watched James Davidson take in the shorts in
'94, even though HE was right, too.

Everything Puetz knows, Greenspan knows. : )

If ( U.S. bonds less than 5.75% ) then Crash Date = 1999. : )

Go, Central Banks! Go, Fascist President! Go, Greenspan!

Treasury reports a $36B net DROP in the Federal Debt during
the past 13 days. Is it real? It is Memorex? Only the Gov't
knows for sure, and not very often, at that.

Thanks Bart for your 01:24 clearing the good name ( ok then, just the the NAME ) ,of LGB. And thank you for an excellent site and a lot of tolerance. I shall show my appreciation by trying to stay within your posted guidelines, and recommending all bullion purchasers to your site.

The only exception will be the ocassional forays into satire re Puetze's eclipse theories and such, but done within a spirit of good natured criticism. Like I said Puetz, no malacious intent desired! I've come to like this site, and I don't want the "Jolly's" to destroy it any more than anyonbe else does. ( Or the "Friend of Kitco's, et al for that matter! )

I've also realized as of late, who should be completley ignored and will do so in the future. ( Amateur PSYCOanalysts for example ) . Now as Rodney King said... "Can't we all just......"

Who Cares, Like I'm computer nerd enough to post from remote locations? I wish....Comparing me to HepCat is like comparing Howard Stern to Don Rickles. One just screams and acts meaninglessly annoying, ( Rickles ) , the other..well I shan't start a new debate here that's off topic, I promised! RJ, your new Kitco name is.... is...... oops, can't break that promise either. Like I said ealier today, all these amateur sleuths should be in great demand as a collective team helping OJ and Jon Benet Ramsey parents find the "real killers". just what those folks are looking for.

Now then Who cares, what do you think about silver? SSC? direction of the market over the next few days? I listen to everyone, through filters of course.

Have you noticed? The essential gold buying countries are down. India, Singapore, Honk Kong, Maylasia, Indonesia Duh? H'mm wonder why, DUH?
http://quotes.yahoo.com/m2?u
Korea who imports and then immediately exports to buy paper interest is up. H'mm.
No one knows where she sends that gold. H'mm.
Then the Taiwan government the other US protectorate; a REAL US HACK, like KOREA, she is paying protection to the US Mafia's, Kapo Rubin and his stoge Bubba, is UP. H'mm
( Their people not included - methinks BUT AIN'T SURE ) .
THIS BULLSHIT GOTTA END, IMO

September 17, 1997
Interest rates to rise, but no need to panic, say economists

TORONTO ( CP ) - Consumers should brace for interest rates to go up several times in the next year following this week's warning from the Bank of Canada, several economists said Wednesday. But they added there's no need to panic because rate hikes will be gradual, part of the central bank's strategy to gently slow the economy's rapid growth before inflation returns.

The increases probably won't be big enough to discourage most consumers and businesses from what they've been doing a lot of lately - spending and hiring because interest rates are at 40-year lows.

"All the Bank of Canada wants to do is ease up on the accelerator," said Canada Trust economist Steve Saldanha.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Interest-Rates.html

Puetz re your 22:59 on free speech and abuses of privilege. Hope you're not including critical satire in that mix of what should be banned. As long as no nasty personal attacks are involved. Now then, Monday is the Vernal Equinox. Any thoughts?? I was thinking maybe THAT was the real trigger.... ;- )

DUH????????

LGB - {shrug} It's not like it matters, "Howard". : )

A scenario - Market tries to crash next week, we see another
"monster bond rally", etc. The game continues until 30-year
bond hits 5.7%. DJIA stagnates around 8K for the next two
years. Y2K panic takes it all out in late summer of '99.

That's what REALLY bugs me about this Y2K crap. We're going to
have to listen, for the next FOUR decades ( of which hopefully
I will only see two of ) about how "Y2K crashed the market",
"Y2K crashed the market", just like we listened to that incredible
guff of how the "Fed raised interest rates in '29", "Fed crashed
the market in '29".

I don't follow silver. I do believe that when it finally comes,
gold will shoot up to $2K or so. I have no idea if it will maintain
that level for very long, though.

Doesn't anyone find it curious that we had the "greatest bond
rally" in six years on the day of the predicted crash?

Good luck to Puetz, I say he's greenspan fodder. : )

Thursday, September 18, 1997
Stop Bre-X leak before well runs dry: investors

By SANDRA RUBIN
The Financial Post
Bre-X Minerals Ltd. should not be under court protection from its creditors because there is virtually no chance it will emerge a viable company, lawyers for shareholders groups charged yesterday.
In the meantime, the company is being bled dry. "The court has been warned this company will run out of money in four months if nothing changes," said William Sasso, part of a legal team trying to get at the remaining assets frozen. "One of the main uses of those funds is to pay the legal fees of [former exploration chief] John Felderhof, [chief
executive] David Walsh and others.

"What they're doing only guarantees that the people who sustained the actual losses -- the investors --will get nothing." Frustrated shareholders have watched as more than $1 million a month disappears for legal fees and to pay Price Waterhouse, the court-appointed monitor.

Walsh, who has said little since the fraud exploded on markets last spring, supported putting the company into court protection. He said in an affidavit the company's assets should be "safeguarded" under current management.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/FP/sep18_stopbrexle.html

I managed to fix my computer myself - unbelievable!!! So I'm back - at least until I leave Friday morning. BART: Thank you for your long explanation. ( I hope you didn't think I was being critical. You know how much I love this site. ) My brokerage is the same one RJ is at. They are one of the largest is not THE largest metals brokerages around. The have access to constant, real-time upadates on every conceivable market. When my broker says PL closed unchanged, he means that after the day of trading, the PL price is the same as the fix at the NY fix 24 hours earlier. That there is a discrepancy in the spot prices between this site and his data is certainly odd and cause for further questioning. Perhaps RJ can shed some light on this.
BTW, if I may weigh in on this - I think a posting password is an interesting idea that is worth exploring. It's up to you, though, of course. Thanks again.

September 18, 1997

IMF head confident about world growth prospects

"We are confident that, in spite of the Southeast Asian crisis, the world is heading towards several years of satisfactory growth," he said. "We are confident that ... this crisis can be transformed into an opportunity for higher and higher quality growth in this part of the world."

But the IMF remained worried about rigid labor markets in many countries
of the European Union, where 18 million people are out of work.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.IMF.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/17/y0023_z00_45.html

AURIC: Yours of 00:46 - Thanks for a great site, not only for geography!
The Home Page turns into a gold mine of information- http://www.miningco.com

CB's hold a billion ounces of Gold and just because they want to sell a couple hundred tons it doesn't mean a whole lot. Sell with the left, buy with the right, who gives a chit!! Buy Coke and you'll be rich, I still hold that shiney rock my pappy gave me!! The banks got enough Gold to keep the system going for afew years, the Gold miners need to form a gold forum and limit production just like the oil people. The cats out of the bag I don't think these producers need bankers and market people to run rough shot over the industry once this fiasco over, last chance for romance, zipper heads!! I'm I beening to critical?? The CB's better hold on becuase we got more Gold below the ground than they've got above the ground!!

Anyone want to trade in OZ??? Here is a good starting point. PS--one of my stocks went up 17% today. From what I hear via my broker--will do even better tomorrow!! Exciting stuff down under!!

http://www.asx.com.au/

Bart--hope you have read "oldman's" post about all the drongos ( there's one for you to look up in your Aussie dictionary ) posting on this great site. We realize that you have got to balance freedom of speech with the tyranny of the interjector. If you are having a birthday party ( private ) at a public location ( Pizza Hut ) and someone comes over to your party and makes himself a total nuisance--what are you going to do? In OZ we would have no problem, as the fellow would soon be looking for a new set of teeth. That , however, is difficult to do in cyberspace. Therefore I hope you will consider oldman's request for some sort of identifiable entry to this site. I, personally, would hate to lose oldman's wisdom and experience and I am sure there are plenty of others here who feel the same. I don't want to turn this into a members only club--but I have a sore finger from scrolling past all of Jolly whatsisnames' posts. Difficult question --freedom of speech vs obnoxious loudmouth.

"Bond Yields Hit a 24-Year Low" My mother always told me ( she was a very smart woman ) to do the opposite of whatever the front page of the newspaper told me!!! This is probably why I am a contrarian. Must be about time for a change in the markets!!!

http://www.afr.com.au:80/index.html

Wakeup Donald and Ted--I need some news.

Where are all the Kiwis tonight?? Baaaaaaaaaaaa.

G'day Unlucky Josephine.

Bart: I too would like to see some kind of formal registration on this site. When the obnoxious comments of some boors can drive away OLDMAN -- one of the best contributors in my opinion -- it is time to sit up and take notice.

OLDMAN: If you don't come back here, perhaps you can post the addresses of the other sites where you are active.

December gold up 50 cents. Joberg down 0.6%.

Captain Bill: Thanks for your insightful essay on the implications of the new $325 "ceiling" informally declared by the western CBs. Interesting how the "line in the sand' has been slashed from $400 to $325. Is $300 next?

To Nick @ Canberra....which one of your stocks went up 17%? Do you believe your broker that it will do likewise tomorrow?

NICK@C: I am awake, already been to the Post Office, got a tank of gas and my first cup. Now I am reading what I missed last night, trying to figure out how to respond to Who Cares. On the way to the news now.

Strad--just want to tell you how much I enjoy your posts. Have figured out a way for you to make LOTS of money!! Put all of your best efforts into deciding on an investment--and then do just the opposite!!!Hey, it may be the elixer for you! KEEP that Strad, Strad!! Some things money can't buy ( sorry, mate. Aussies have a weird sense of humour ( humor ) ! Our convict past-you know!! ) .

WHO CARES: Missed you for the past several days. On the CB's and their ability to control the price of gold and the action of other CB's. It seems that there are three "head" CB's along with the BIS. Bill Buckler left out the BIS and the IMF in his excellent discussion. There is a lot to talk about here. If the BIS has the power to force the BOJ into line, and it did, then it is a huge factor in all these decisions. The BIS is a private bank, I think anyone can buy shares. We need to know more about the BIS, who the shareholders are, what their objective is, why the CB's knuckle under to them. It all seems a little sinister to me, that the BIS should have this power over my life and I don't find any candidates for President of the BIS when I go in to vote.

Daiwa Securities Raided as Gangster Payoff Scandal Widens

Authorities raided Daiwa Securities Co., as a scandal over payoffs to a gangster widened to
enmesh Japan's second-largest brokerage. About 100 investigators early this afternoon entered
Daiwa's Tokyo headquarters in search of evidence that the brokerage paid 50 million yen
( $410,000 ) to Ryuichi Koike, 54. Koike, in jail awaiting trial, is ``sokaiya,'' a gangster who
blackmails companies. Authorities have already raided two more of Japan's largest brokerages --
Nomura Securities Co. and Yamaichi Securities Co. -- and its fourth-largest bank, Dai-Ichi
Kangyo Bank Ltd., for evidence that their executives also paid off Koike. The scandal will hit
Daiwa particularly hard. It's likely to lose its recent lead in trading stocks for customers on the
Tokyo Stock Exchange back to Nomura, Japan's largest brokerage. ( 8602 JP CN )

Josephine--good to see you're lurkin. The stock was ( is ) Formulab Neuronetics ( FNC ) . I know I told you to NEVER listen to your broker. It is a good way to get broker!! However, the information he imparted was that there is already heaps of interest coming in from overseas and the stock could open higher than today's close. That is the ONLY kind of info I accept from a broker--the non-advice type. FNC hit the headlines a few months ago when they reported that they had developed a computer that thinks like a human ( poor bloody computer!! ) . Anyway the shares skyrockeTED ( are you listenen Ted? ) up to about 1.40. Then all the disbelievers set in and it settled down to a nice basing pattern at .20. They started to move yesterday for some unknown reason so I jumped in real quick big-time. This is the way I pick shares. I know NOTHING!! ( sounds like Shultz on Hogan's Heroes ) but SOMEBODY out there knows sumpthin--that's when I jump in, Jo, hopefully ahead of the crowd!!! There are traders like oldman who analyse the info and make an educated guess based on years of experience and a great deal of expensively gained wisdom and then there are traders like myself who try to get in quick on someone else's inside info and then exit when the Joes/Josephines jump in--whereupon the share quite often takes a dive!! If that wasn't a run on sentence,then I give up!! Anyway I have a sneaky feeling this FNC is going to be a big winner. Perhaps an overseas computer company is buying up ahead of the announcement. I don't know. I will buy more on dips and I will be out like a scalded rabbit if it hits my stop loss!!!!! In the meantime I made enough ( on paper ) today to keep me in Victoria Bitter for the next four years.

"Consumers will think twice about adding new debt" ( add this to the shock number about housing starts yesterday and we may begin the see the shape of the "New Era" economy )
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/17/y0004_y00_4.html

"What's happening right now in the world of debtors is pretty disgusting"
http://www.sfgate.com:80/cgi-bin/chronicle/article.cgi?file=BU46449.DTL&directory=/chronicle/archive/1997/09/15

To All -- The Avid system is simple. They know who you are. As part of the registration process, you give them your E-Mail address, and other contact information. NONE OF THIS IS POSTED! It is for Avid only. You can choose whatever handle you want. Other than having to log on with a password TO POST ( lurkers can read but not post ) , everything else is the same as here. The BIG difference is that multiple 'handle' posting is harder to do, and Avid knows WHO YOU ARE. It forces people to be a little more, ' above board'.

Sure, they have their problems too, but they tend to be much more short lived. It's just a suggestion. Gone for now.

Personal bankruptcy up 400% since 1980.
http://www.businesswire.com:80/cgi-bin/sr_headline.sh?/bw.091797/478283

Donald re: your 07:55. there was a story on the Canberra news tonight about an Aussie woman who had 82!!!! credit cards--owed $200 000 on them and didn't have either an income or a brass razoo to her name. Wonder how many people have bought shares on the plastic??

It's been a good week if you're long the S&P. But, we're finally getting near the opening gap objective at 956 sept, 966 dec posted here many times. Once this gap gets filled the market should reverse into late October. Now is finally the time to scale into puts. Gold based on the long term monthly chart should bottom at 317. XAU may go for the gap at 87.

FINANCIER GEORGE SOROS took a long, hard look at the outside money
managers he hires on a contract basis to handle the portfolio for his $2.5 billion
Quasar International fund and decided a radical change was needed. So, in the
past few weeks, a flurry of ''Dear John'' letters were sent to the managers across
the country ordering them to liquidate their Soros holdings by the end of October.
The letters noted that the liquidation should be done ''as soon as is practical
without jeopardizing the value of our assets.''

What's the beef? Lousy performance. With so many outsiders managing a piece
of the six-year-old fund, the portfolio's strategy was a hodgepodge of investment
styles. Quasar lagged other offshore funds and some of Soros' own funds,
including the $2.9 billion Quantum Industrial Holdings. Year to date, Quasar was
up 12% and Quantum Industrial up 22%. Quasar will now be managed in-house
like QIH is.

Meyer Berman of M.A. Berman Co. in Boca Raton, Fla., was one of the unlucky
few to get nearly $100 million pulled. Berman invested the money mostly by
shorting stocks--betting the market would drop. ''This gives me time to
concentrate on my tennis game,'' Berman shrugs.

NICK@C: How much is a brass yazoo in American money? Is it more than a plugged nickel?

Nick @ Canberra ( 6:44 ) Mornin mate! been up but that's more than I can say for my damn ISP.....S+P futures up 3.0....long bond up 13 ticks...Comex: gold up 1.10; silver up 3.5 cents; PL up 2.5 and PA up 2.30....KLSE down 3.1% ( you were right JIN! ) ....

Donald--that's 'brass "razoo"', and it is worth .7156 of a plugged nickle ( 8:20 am NY time ) . Isn't the info revolution great?

Discussion on the proper role of a Central Bank in a currency crisis.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/16/z0000_z00_42.html

As a frequent visitor ( guest ) and an occasional contributor to Kitco, I have come to expect the looselip rantings of the occasional intemperate blow-in. These guys invariably blow-out just as quickly.....usually when they have been ignored by the regulars for a few days. Sadly though, poor old Bart always seems to cop the flak for these screwballs. If you've got to spit the dummy, please....don't spit it at Bart. It's not his fault that the loopy faction of humanity hitches a ride on the Kitco site once in a while.

NICK@C: When you don't know your yazoo from your razoo should you consult a doctor or a banker?

There are some big bottom feeders out there with fat wallets!! I have noticed a lot of little ( very little ) gold shares being picked off in the millions as they scrape along in the sand-- mostly at 10-20% of the price a year ago. There sure as hell isn't much downside ( except to zero ) --which is where a lot of them are going to end up, no doubt. I have started to do a little nibbling myself. If gold breaks up from here I will be over in the Bahamas in a few months ( after a quick kayacking trip to Cape Breton ) on my ill-gotten gains. Are the bottom feeders out in force in Yankee Doodle Land yet??

Welcome back Scotty!....Panda ( 8:08 ) I agree....I think the time has come!
......Weather: 14 degrees ( C ) and sun tryin ta break out....Looks like S+P futures ( up 1.10 ) and long bond lost some of their steam after the release of the trade deficit #'s ( up 24% ) ....

Inflation has vanished from the memory of people and California to boom through year 2020.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/97/09/17/y0009_1.html

All:

One of the things that insulates the hosters of sites from litigation involving things posted on their site's bulletin boards is that they do not regulate the content. If Bart were to play an active role in 'screening' the content of posts then he might take on some liability as to the content of what remained as it could be construed that he sanctioned it. This is not something a sane man would want to do.

The squelch button on the otherhand would be a fine solution. Each of us could decide with whom he wished to keep company. I suppose that programming this feature would take some effort because each of us would have to have to maintain a file of 'squelched' handles. This would probably require logging on under a password, and oh dear, might get Bart into the same legal pickle.

It looks like we will just have to learn to deal with each other. Just like the real world. Ain't it funny how the internet mimics life.

DONALD,or whoever; you posted me some great info the other day but there's an abreviation I did'nt get, sooooooooooo, I've waited to see if any one would spell it out and they have'nt. I hate to look"ignernt" but I hate being uninformed even more, what does BIS stand for?

S+P futures now up only .65....didn't like dem trade #'s...Nick @ C: come on up.....can't find any yocals....um...mean locals,who will kayak the ocean with me...since the gov'ment does everything but wipe ( maybe they do? ) their FAT asses....most of the local population is very timid and not exactly adventuresome....In over 4 years I have seen ONE other kayaker "out there"....an American soldier on leave.....Met him out @ Scaterie Island and his first comment was "what's wrong with the people here???" "when I told people I was going to kayak to Scaterie Island,they said I would die "out there" and it was crazy ta even think of paddling "out there" "and then they almost physically tried to stop me"...Welcome to Cape Breton Buddy.....S+P futures up 1.85

..good morning all.....the US $ strength has a price after all...equilibrium and imbalances are keys to havoc & chaos...
U.S. trade deficit soars
Copyright  1997 Nando.net
Copyright  1997 The Associated Press

WASHINGTON ( September 18, 1997 08:45 a.m. EDT ) -- America's trade
deficit soared to $10.3 billion in July, the worst showing in six months, as
imports hit a record and the politically sensitive trade gap with Japan rose
to the highest level in two years, the Commerce Department reported
Thursday.

The July deficit was up a sharp 24.7 percent from a June imbalance of
$8.3 billion and was the worst showing since an $11.6 billion trade gap in
January.

American exports to the rest of the world dipped 1.4 percent to $77.4
billion, reflecting lower sales of agricultural products, industrial engines and
artwork. Imports were up 1.1 percent to a record $87.7 billion as foreign
cars and parts shipped to the United States hit an all-time high.

So far this year, America's deficit in goods and services is running at an
annual rate of $113.6 billion, even worse than last year's $111 billion
imbalance, which had been the worst showing in eight years.

Opponents of President Clinton's trade policies point to the trade deficit,
which has widened every year of his presidency, as evidence that the
administration's trade policies have been a failure that have cost
thousands of American jobs.

The administration, however, contends that its aggressive pursuit of
market-opening trade deals have resulted in a healthy expansion of
American exports, while the overall deficits are blamed on other factors
such as differing economic growth rates.

The debate will be joined in earnest in coming weeks as the administration
seeks to win congressional approval of the negotiating authority it needs to
expand free trade beyond Canada and Mexico to the rest of the Western
Hemisphere.

For July, the deficit with Japan surged 27.3 percent to $5.2 billion, the worst
performance since June 1995. The big jump reflected an increase of $629
million in Japanese imports, with more than half of that reflecting higher car
shipments. U.S. exports to Japan fell by $478 million.

Administration officials have begun to step up their complaints about
Japan's economic policies, warning that the country should not try to
export its way out of a prolonged economic slump. Treasury Secretary
Robert Rubin has said Japan's growing trade surpluses would be a topic of
discussion when finance officials of the world's seven largest economies
meet this Saturday in Hong Kong.

America's deficit with China was up 9.2 percent to $4.7 billion in July, the
biggest gap since last October as imports of Chinese clothing and toys
showed big gains. U.S. officials have complained that China is not doing
enough to lower barriers to American products and for that reason has
continued to block China's entry into the World Trade Organization.

In one bright spot, America's deficit with Mexico did narrow by 17.8 percent
to $987 million, the smallest imbalance since January 1995,when that
country was engulfed by a currency crisis that sent its economy into a
tailspin.

While opponents of free trade point to widening deficits with Mexico as a
primary example of the failure of Clinton's policies, the administration
argues that the North American Free Trade Agreement was not the cause
of Mexico's economic crisis.

America's deficit with Western Europe climbed to $4.3 billion, compared to
$796 million in June. It was the worst showing since July 1996 as
America's deficits with Germany, Italy and France all set records.

America's foreign oil bill decreased 4.1 percent in July to $5.7 billion as
price per barrel of crude oil dropped to $16.50, the lowest level since
February 1966.



Jimmy Rogers will be on CNBC tomorrow to talk about El Nino again...Here's what the WSJ says:
September 18, 1997

El Nino's Petulance Baffles
Investors Expecting Rallies

By AARON LUCCHETTI
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

El Nino isn't behaving as it usually does, and that's giving
some agricultural-commodity market investors fits.

Several anticipated effects of the renowned weather
trend have failed to materialize so far, foiling price rallies
in several agricultural commodities and underscoring the
fragility of investments based on meteorological
forecasts.

Take wheat. While bullishness pervaded wheat-trading
pits earlier this summer amid expectations that El Nino
would damage international crops, many traders
tempered their bets after timely rains eased fears of
damage to the crop in Australia, a key exporter.

"We all bought [wheat] on El Nino, but so far, going long
has been wrong," says Bill Biederman, vice president of
research at Allendale Inc., a Crystal Lake, Ill.,
brokerage.

Mr. Biederman says he projected wheat prices near
$4.30 a bushel when dry conditions threatened wheat
crops in Australia last month. Now, however, Mr.
Biederman has lowered his price estimate to $3.30 a
bushel, as analysts increased their Australian crop
projections. Wednesday, the nearby September wheat
future rose three cents to $3.61 a bushel at the Chicago
Board of Trade, down 5.7% from its recent Sept. 3
peak.

Relying on El Nino weather trends puts investors "on
shaky ground," says David Armstrong, a grains analyst at
ABN Amro Chicago Corp. Yet many investors and
farmers had bet that crops would falter in Australia
because of El Nino, the reversal of the trade winds and
the warming of the surface waters in the eastern Pacific
Ocean. The periodic weather condition often touches off
weather problems in other regions, such as Australia.

Through July and early August, the dry Australian
weather that typically accompanies El Nino appeared,
taking a toll on the Australian winter-wheat crop. Some
private analysts predicted that the Australian wheat crop
would fall 50% from last year, and prices rose as
speculators built bullish positions.

Indeed, the number of futures contracts open at the
CBOT grew to more than 100,000 this month from
81,000 in early June, when this year's El Nino was
reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration. And as the dry weather built and the
Australian Wheat Board cut its forecast for the year's
crop to 14 million metric tons from 19 million, speculative
commodity funds built their bullish position to about 80
million bushels.

Recently though, speculators have reduced their
positions, to about 35 million bushels this week, says
AgResource Co., a Chicago research firm. "Rains [in
Australia] eased a lot of fears at the Board of Trade,"
said Dan Basse, executive vice president at AgResource.
"The wheat crop got a reprieve" from the dryness
expected to accompany El Nino, he said.

To be sure, this year's El Nino still is shaping up to be
one of the strongest in decades, rivaling the 1982-1983
bout that caused crop failures and widespread damage.
But what the phenomenon means for investors this year is
less clear.

"El Nino interacts with the atmosphere; it doesn't rule it,"
says Basilio Lopez, assistant meteorologist for Smith
Barney in Chicago. This year, El Nino is operating in "a
different atmospheric setup," Mr. Lopez notes.

This year's surprise rain in Australia -- several inches in
late August and early September -- shows that predicting
the effects of El Nino can be more art than science.

"We have an understanding of the general physical
characteristics of El Nino, but they unfold slightly
differently each time," says Chet Ropelewski, chief of the
analysis branch at the Climate Prediction Center in Camp
Springs, Md. Picking what regions will suffer the brunt of
El Nino-related droughts or floods is made even more
difficult by fairly limited data. Advanced satellite
technology to monitor the weather trend has existed for
about 20 years, enough to monitor only a handful of El
Ninos.

But regardless of the depth of data, this year's El Nino
isn't following the usual pattern that begins in the autumn.
Rather, it began emerging in May and June. That's one
reason that it will be particularly difficult to predict its
effects. India, for instance, is often drier in years in which
an El Nino is developing. But this year, India's monsoon
rains arrived about on time and in normal quantities.

"This El Nino will be accompanied by non-typical El
Nino events," says Fred Gesser, chief forecaster for
Weather Express in Omaha, Neb. Recent surprises in the
weather reinforce "the weakness in our blindly accepting"
forecasts about what El Nino usually portends for
commodities prices, he says.

El Nino could wreak havoc with other commodities as
well, since many tie their supply and demand to the
weather. For example, heating oil and natural gas prices
could be hurt if El Nino brings the expected dose of
warmer weather to the upper Midwest this winter.
Soybeans, corn and other livestock feeds could shoot up
as they did in the 1970s, because of El Nino's negative
effect on the anchovy crop, an alternative feed ingredient.
And coffee and cocoa growers have also watched the
skies to see if the El Nino trend will bring expected dry
weather to key growing regions in Southeast Asia and
the West African coast.

"El Nino has been overplayed in terms of everyone
talking about it," says Arthur Stevenson, a commodity
analyst for Prudential Securities in New York. "Now, the
markets need to see an authoritative crop evaluation."

Steve DeCook, president of Fundamental Futures, a
West Des Moines, Iowa, commodity trading adviser,
says he has avoided investing in wheat because it is
difficult to pick out what crops El Nino affects. For
example, in China, recent dry weather not typically
associated with El Nino helps corn prices more than
wheat.

"It's fair to say we'll have a weather problem somewhere
[because of El Nino], but it might not be where you
expect it," he says. "The lesson is that you don't have
100% predictability with El Nino."

In other commodity markets:

LUMBER: A bear market in lumber sharpened its
teeth, as an extremely disappointing U.S. housing report
pointed to decaying demand. The U.S. Commerce
Department reported a 4.8% drop in housing starts in
August from July, much worse than the market's
expectations of flat to slightly higher starts. The
Commerce Department also downgraded its July housing
starts to a 4.7% decline from unchanged and reported
that building permits fell 1.6% in August. The nearby
November lumber contract fell $6.70 to $314.10 per
thousand board feet at the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange.

SOYBEANS: Futures representing soybeans planted
last year climbed at the Chicago Board of Trade, settling
above $8 per bushel for the first time in two months.
After rising 47.5 cents Tuesday, the September contract
rose 19 cents more to finish at $8.01 a bushel.
November soybeans fell 2.75 cents to $6.44 a bushel as
the spread grew between contracts representing the
1996 crop and the 1997 crop, for which harvesting has
just begun.














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Copyright  1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

"If the S&P falls 20%, the Rydex Nova Fund will fall 30%"
http://www.kiplinger.com:80/magazine/oct97/mfoct97.html

Time for some of that dangerous seakayaking....BBL dudes....

Hi Badger. BIS is Bank for International Settlements. Here is their site.
http://www.bis.org/index.htm

Jo'burg gold down 0.46%, but don't worry because Portugal is UP 0.15%!!

http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets

Mornin Tort! Yer missive just floated in and will be back @ ya ...later..
re my silence: Hard to post when yer ISP suks...um....is down...XAU up .72

Nick @ Canberra.....Which of the penny dreadfuls scraping along in the sand are you nibbling at?

Scotty:

"Cash will be king" ... Sure, pick on me eh !!! ( :- ) )

Well, let's see if I can explain this properly. If not, I'm sure someone will jump on the logic so assume that it's wrong ( and it probably is ) as I guess I'm in unique circumstances here. In prelude, let me re-explain that I'm into Mutual funds only. I use only one fund family, and I can move around daily without any charges. An 800 number and a fax verification do the job. That of course is not the norm here as I'm sure you've found. I live off my investments and consider myself retired.

I believe that the following is correct. If you're in the market ( a regular non-gold holder ) and it ( the market in general ) does a quick downturn then those investors will not 1 ) have the time nor 2 ) have the inclination to think correctly but will instinctivly jump to cash ( money markets or bonds[if not getting worse themselves] rather than precious metals. Safety is upmost and preservation of the "pot" will be essential. When ( if ) it starts to unfold quickly, the jump will be to cash, not other stocks.

If it unfolds slowly, then the movement to precious metals will be available. Time will allow one to see alternative routes to take without the "rush" pressure. This would be the best route for gold bugs as it would allow the "masses" to see the wisdom of such a move as the 'sliding' over to the metals would improve the prices within the XAU/HUI/TSE etc. and would be seen as movement to a rising star rather than a falling meteor.

So there seem to be two choices. A quick fall .... get out of everything and into cash to buy later after the dust has settled OR a slow grind ..... stay in metals and see if the XAU/HIU/TSE hold their own or improve.

Pay you money and make your choices or stand aside.

Will the "Boomers" act this way or have they been convinced to stay for the long haul? Well, I'm the leading edge of the boomers ( 50 ) and I see the worlds economies, the debt levels etc. and I'm more alert to my "pot" than I have ever been. I think they will act that way but not until after the 10% downturn that George, Earl, Donald have mentioned. I believe they're right. I believe I'm right. Combine the two and metals will not explode unless the market drifts downwards and won't start that till after a 10% drop in DOW values. The 'demand' we're always looking for, must come from the general public seeing that the XAU/HUI/TSE gold indexes have risen ( or even held its own ) while the DOW has dropped. Quick drop...get out of everything and go to cash to await wonderful buying opportunities ( in metals ) when the dust has cleared as they ( metals ) will rise quicker than the "DOW's" ( from past experience re the 1929~1933 DOW drop ) .

For day traders like "Oldman" and "RJ" of course, it matters not where the market goes as their ability to "time" their trades is key to profits for them. One must be willing to risk a great deal ( at least in my wallet ) in order to take a gamble on 4 Spoos going the right way for a day to make 50K. Too much for my blood I'm afraid, so that's why I explained at the beginning where I'm coming from. When I say cash, I mean Mutual funds that reflect money markets. NOT $$$$$'s ... OK?

Hope that helps....

TTFN

Auric - Got one 'o them there WEBtv's. Much faster than ma' orfice Net connection. Double thanks. But it looks like I'm have ta' buy another one and a new line for ma' wife ( she wants to look at other stuff than I do ) . Any who..

ALL - Yesterday's activity looks funny to me. It looks like someone was trying to drive the market down but failed to do it. Any comments? Its obvious that alot of people didn't buy the 'down' vision because they did not sell after the leaders. Instead they bought until the leaders got tired of selling. I'm hearing alot of 'down' talk about the PM's but am not seeing conviction in the market. We are seeing a big resistance to below US$320. Unless someone can dump a great deal of metal I doubt that we will go lower. A few tonnes from CB's may not have the impact psychologically that it did in the summer. People have been doing their research.

Looking through my mail today and I have a flyer from Dr. Gary North. I notice on page 15 that he features the Dow/Gold Ratio. He must have picked it up here at Kitco because it is not talked about anywhere else as far as I know. The more the public gets educated about the ratio the better it will be for us goldbugs. It is a powerful argument in my opinion and is easily understood by ordinary people. Some investment strategies are so complex they make my eyes glaze over.

How have Formulab ( FNCLY on NASDAQ ) been performing on the NASDAQ? I notice they have won two government contracts to develop intelligent systems in the U.S....one with the U.S. Dept of Defence and the other with the Pentagon's Support Operations. My brother thought Tony Richter to be rather eccentric when he met him a couple of years ago...and later became a fan and held FNC all the way up and most of the way down again when they fell from grace..

PM stocks up, 3-1 winners over losers in this USA Today selection:

http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/gldnslvrt.html?source=blq/usawww

Donald - You just never know who's been lurking, eh?

All- remember some months ago we had a similar problem, and oldman threatened and did leave the site for something that annoyed him.

I remember emailing him and suggesting something that might make him come back. I received no reply. After awhile he came back, and now again he finds the pains in the butt, as do we all, annoying him again.

I, for one, agree with DA's comments of today, and especially wish to stress the last part"It looks like we will just have to learn to deal with each other. Just like the real world. Ain't it funny how
the internet mimics life."

That's life, we each have to deal with all facets, as they come!

Anyone know what's happening with silver today.....SSC is up on HEAVY VOLUME... ( 'course I sold it yesterday....!!$%^& )

Donald, I'm contemplating adding to my position in Bema at these prices. What do you think?

U.S. stock dive could shake out super discounters
He said in a sharp market downturn, many would lose money for the first time and drop out. As for the firms, ``they may have
trouble surviving'' under such circumstances.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/17/bqr_flt_y_3.html

Based on number of visitors:

http://www.100hot.com/finance/fullscreen.html

Special bonus: Agenda of this week's mining conference - every hot new mining technology under the sun - is at

http://www.geosoft.com/exploration97/brochure/techsess.html

ALL: The Savage ( SAVAGECUBA@earthlink.net ) is NOT the Savage ( me ) who has been posting for the last year......so...NEW Savage, please identify yourself as Savage01 or something else to eliminate confusion, please! ( there are several here that can verify that that e-mail address is not mine )

PM's up around 2%. It's about time! Please take a look at this lovely site. It's been a long time since it looked this pretty. ( It's the USA Today / DBC selection of 20 or so PM stocks and it doesn't load very quickly, but it's worth the wait - at the moment ) .

http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/gldnslvrt.html?source=blq/usawww

Seems to be some kitcoites interested in this one, well today the volume seems to be ticking up.

Donald, Vronsky...here are two stories on Brazil ( in portuguese )
...currency devaluations will spill over to South America to maintain exports competitiveness ( US is major EXPORTER to this area! )
1 ) From what I can gather the IMF is warning Brazil, that it is running a "significant risk" re: high deficit
A pesar de o Governo brasileiro argumentar que o crescente dficit em conta corrente pode
ser facilmente financiado pelo grande volume de investimentos estrangeiros diretos que o
Brasil vem recebendo, a direo do Fundo Monetrio Internacional ( FMI ) acredita que essa
aposta incorpora um "risco significativo".
http://www.oglobo.com.br/>http://www.oglobo.com.br/


2 ) Trade balance deficit for Sept ( close to US $ 1 bn )
BRASLIA. A balana comercial brasileira deve fechar este ms com um dficit entre US$
800 milhes e US$ 1 bilho. S na primeira quinzena de setembro, foi registrado um saldo
negativo acima de US$ 500 milhes, segundo fontes do setor privado e da rea de comrcio
exterior. Ao contrrio do ocorrido nos ltimos meses, quando o aumento das importaes
foi o principal responsvel pelo dficit, este ms o que mais preocupa o Governo  o
desempenho das exportaes, que vm caindo consideravelmente em relao a agosto.
http://www.oglobo.com.br/

The sincerest form of flattery is imitation: The sincerest form of insult and rebuke is ignoring totally and completely= i.e. you don't exist on the planet!!!!! Try it, itworks.

FWIW - CNBC reported ML bought 3000 Bond futures contracts driving yields down to 6.35 - 6.36 area.
...they're trying every 'deceptive' means of continuing the paper bull....hammering 'gold' with CB selling rumours etc...

The market isn't buying it. Gold mining shares are rallying in heavy volume, gold bullion held the short selling onslaught, inflows have grown toward gold mutual funds , whilst inflows toward equities has slown considerably.

NICK ( Canberra ) : You've got that right, mate! Thus far I've been pretty much the quintessential contrary indicator. Hope springs eternal, though.

PM stocks rallying today on good ( but not huge ) volume despite further strength in stocks and bonds. Encouraging action, but not decisive. BTW, if the PM equities continue to rally, a big drop in stocks and bonds will not be long in coming. I now am leaning towards a "mini crash" scenario where the Dow drops perhaps 1000 points in a few days, but then stabilizes ( well for awhile, anyway ) .

Hey y'all - Would you stop giving GLB and Valhalla and OJ so much
crap? There is only one hepcat, and he has decided to let you all
back on this site for a while. You seem to misunderstand my
intentions - I am pushing ( as Bart can attest ) as hard as anyone
for a registration requirement on this site. Short of that, the
kind of hijinks that I willingly perpetrate, that Oldman and his
son willingly perpetrated, that Mooney and his howler coven willing
perpetrated, that countless other regulars on this site willingly
perpetrated and perpetrate, will continue and no one can do anything
about it except live with it. The stock market is not going to
crash. Stop acting like children by blaming me for this fact.
Gold is not going to do anything for the next few months except
go down. Stop acting like children by blaming me for this fact.
Live with it, like Puetz and GSC and others will have to live with
the errors of their predictions. I didn't force Puetz and GSC to
make bad predictions. They made them on their own, and wanted their
brilliance to be on display for others. Now I am calling them on
it, because actions have consequences. Three-one-oh has yet to tell other people to do things on this site which has caused them to lose money - on the contrary, three-one-oh has been right on all major
issues since September of last year. Grow up and get used to it.
Stop running to Bart and begging for rational voices that point out
the errors in your thinking to be extinguished.

Lesson #1: Fear God.
Lesson #2: Never Ever Threaten the Prophet of God.
Lesson #3: Psalms chapter 2 & chapter 18 from the most holy prophetic book.

One dead, four injured as mudslide hits Port Angeles tavern...
Apparent tornado damages homes in Oregon...
Late-summer rains leave their mark statewide...
Water leak damages classrooms ...
See Northwest News @
http://206.63.60.125/index.htm

http://crydee.sai.msu.su/public/lyrics/cs-uwp/h/hooters/all_you_zombies
El nino...really BIG storms...BIG storms...REALLY BIG STORMS...
The Rainman...

Today's news: record imports reported for last month--trade deficit hits 10.34 billion, up 24.7% from previous announcement. Surprised the market is up today

Yaohan seeks court protection as
restructuring moves fail
Yaohan Japan Corp. filed for bankruptcy protection Thursday with the
Shizuoka district court under provisions of the Corporation
Rehabilitation Law. The Numazu-based supermarket chain operator had
been attempting a major restructuring to survive its 170 billion yen in
debt.

The company has already sold off shares of its key department store in
China and tried to sell other foreign assets, including three shopping
centers in the U.S. Yaohan also sold nine outlets of a
consumer-electronics marketing unit to Best Denki Co. Despite these
efforts, the supermarket chain was unable to overcome its poor financial
standing.

Because of the massive liabilities, the firm's main banker, Tokai Bank,
refused to offer all-out financial support to Yaohan.

Allen
Do you need an ISp to work those newfangled WebTV's?
Do you know if they would work in Oz?
Will they keep my wife off my back?
Concept seems brilliant.

Ta Nick

XAU and HUI have started their moves. Now the fun begins. : ) Donald: The "cat" is wired!!!!

GSC and everyone who said the DOW wasn't going to see 8300 any time soon:

You were saying?.....

Jeez Ted, Thanks for the ( Burrito ) ... It's like picking up a John Irving novel, yuk, yuk.

Nick in the Can - Hot tips?? Try QNTM ( Quantum Corp. ) form the Long side. Just paper trade this. From the looks here, though, it is due for a good correction. I don't do stocks and want to see how good the 'info' is. ( mikeShellers famous disclaimer is in full force ) . btw, If you're cruising to the Bahamas via Cape Breton stop by Cal. on your way. We'll wax the boards or play a little Golfy? Can't find the Victoria Bitter but the fridge is WELL stocked with Foster's Bitter...oh my! it's 5.6% and tasty as you know. Hey Mate, don't count on your Gold going anywhere sooooon... Get Real, Get Plat. ;-$ ) Unless you are talking about gold stocks, then I'm all wet.
Don't the brits call you P.O.M.E.'s? Prisoners of Mother England? I get it mixed up...oh well, if you can pry the detection bracelet off your ankle come on up and we'll do some serious chugging ;- ) G'day!

Hurricane-Boy - Still working on your name...

Oh My! Just checked in to the Markets...WoW...look at it go!!

Bart - I bet you feel like 'commenting' sometimes...Go ahead, let it GO! It's healthy!! Cleanse yourself... Thanks again! You are Kingly.

Time for some Yen play... $$$ and Plat $$$

away...
EB

George Cole: Do you think the rallies today in stocks and in XAU are related to tomorrow's triple option expiration? If there is a very big move into and on an expiration day, the following week often reverses that move, at least partially.

Bill D how could you sell your SSC yesterday when I've been telling you for days to buy it hand over fist? Puetz, I missed today's great gains by selling too soon. My error was in forgetting to factor in the 2 to 3 days FOLLOWING the eclipse which you said would surely precipitate a crash if it didn't happen on the day itself. I've GOT to get this contrary indicator strategy down better!!!

Disinformation exists in layers like layers of an onion. Things are not what they seem to be. We can devide all the handles here at Kitco into two classes sincere posters and disinformation handles. Can a sincere poster supply incorrect information? Yes. Can a sincere poster use multiple handles? Yes. Can a disinformation handle supply correct information some of the time? Yes.

Nick ( Aussie ) - The Magnavox and Sony units are internally identical. You provide some basic information about you and where you live, CC# etc. It dials up automaticly ( an 800 # ) to up/download to their site. It reboots and dials the local number ( s ) for your connection. WEBtv is their own ISP. My EMail address through their service is polloa@webtv.net . You can have up to 6 seperate accounts for setup, lists and EMail, each with password protection. I suppose one indicator that it would work in OZ would be that it is being sold by local retailers there. I bought mine at Sears. Circuit City had em but not in stock. If you EMail me your Email address I'll send you a tech # if you want to ask directly where it is supported. It worked like a charm for me. Saved me from buying a modem upgrade ( 33.6 kbps c/ custom compression ) . Also saved me from booting my PC and looking at the small screen. As Auric has said it is as big as your TV screen and plainly a high quality display, even on a TV screen. There is also synthesized audio ( stereo ) though I don't know if this is just for WEBtv pages or if it works with game sites, etc.

It seems that the unit and the ISP are tuned for maximum throughput for page downloads. Very sharp performance. Now the only thing I'll need is a big, overstuffed chair like Auric has and I'll be a real web surfin' dude.

One other thing that's nice is when you put an address in for a WWW server it presents you with an EXCITE search listing. To the right is a link that says "like this" or something. What it does is a search for other sites which have similarities to the site you have selected. Neat stuff. So you can either go to the site or browse around for sites which are similar in content at the touch of a link.

That was stimulating!!!....Looks like we're havin another crash-UP in the Dow....Puetz: you can always hope "triple withchin" bails ya out tomorrow!...Hi EB....good game between Dodgers+Giants last night...eh! XAU is even joining "the party" and is up 2.07.....Time fer an ocean hike with "the wife"....BBL bro's+dudes....

LGB's name is Mike, and he lives in the West, probably California.

I wonder why Trade Deficits don't effect gold prices as previously.
Is it the huge currency market and the 'power' driven stock market that removes interest in gold?
While gold no longer reacts strongly to good news; it seems that the recent anti-gold news can be the CULPRIT that keeps investor sentiment from gold and gold shares.
There is a lot of investment money that can go into cheap gold and gold shares; but it doesn't.
Then the dollar is the world reserve currency, but Japan and Europe are the lenders of last resort.
Like a credit card holder, we -the US- can buy what we want.
Drink foreign beers and be happy, at least they're good.

All these cries for site registration. Don't you think it adds an undue burden on Bart? Does he want to spend even more time trying to administer this site? I think all the posters, INCLUDING Oldman, valuable contributer though he surely is, should cease and desist from the "I'm gonna take my ball and go home" mentality. What's wrong with self policing? Surely that would be a better, more adult way to handle a forum of freely exchanged ideas.

Yes I know that I've been guilty of bending the rules here, so I may not be the best spokesman, nevertheless many other "regulars" violate the rules constantly here as well.

WE have RJ, hat in hand, begging for business here every week or so in gross violation of the rules ( and in direct competition with the site host ) , several other posters constantly whining about the site who seem to contribute nothing ( "Friend", "Freuqent poster" et al ) , lots of people posting jokes, non PM related business info., posts devoted to personal dialogues between members re their recreational activities, the list is virtually endless. All these posts should be quashed as well?

I have no love for the "Jolly Millers", and "Testing's" of the world, and wouldn't miss them if they disappeared. And I have no problem with registration. Might even help me hold to a better class of dialogue myself. But listen Kitcoites, why should Bart, who has had the generosity to host this site, be subject to constant whining demands to add more work to the job?? Who else here has set up such a site?

Finally, though I too appreciate serious meaty contributions from true analysts with something to say, try to realize that not everyone out here who invests in PM's, is a boring, monolithic, rigid, humourless chart & graph obsessed stuffed shirt. A little levity, critical satire, balance, and vigorously critical debate is healthy for "normal" human beings. It helps add balance and expanded thinking to life.

I understand the resentment toward "personal attack" posters. I've tried to tone my own rhetoric down and remove the highly inflammatory personal insults from my posts at the request of others here. I do try and hold people's feet to the fire on their strongly stated opinions if I disagree, and hopefully mixed with some ocassional humor as well.

Sometimes I wonder about the agenda of the folks screaming loudest here for censorship, squelch buttons, registration, and "I'm taking my ball & going home". Are you SURE that there isn't some tiny element of resentment directed at those who have taken a "Contrary to the Contrarian" views? I mean I've read an enormous number of "elitist" comments here about "Sheep, and "Lemmings" and "Paper Bugs", etc etc, endlessly. Lot's of continuous insluts toward the folks who have been making enormous gains for decades, and humiliating the "Bad News Bears".

Could it be that there is the tiniest extra bit of sour grapes out of frustration for the PM's dismal decade of performance?? And that this creeps in to the self righteous calls for only the "Serious" and "sincere" posters?

Look, I apologize for 2 sermons in one week, but I see as much deterioration and disruption to this site from the shrill cries of the "older" establised posters, as from the new "Hepcat" clones. ( Of which I do NOT consider myself a member... )

Finally, an offer to Kitcoites. Maybe this is self indulgent neurosis, but if I'm truly one of the ones that you feel is fundamentally destructive to this site, and if a substantial number ( say 7 or 8 ) of the "regular", frequent contributing handle posters I recognize here requests that I stop posting, I'll disappear and become a lurker once again. ( AS I was for 3 months befor eever posting the first time ) .

I like this site, and many of the regulars. Lot's of class posters here, and lots of ineraction. I'd hate to see that end. But don't go to extremes. A site dominated by "Jolly's" wouldn't be Kitco anymore, but neitehr would a site where there's nothing but endless discussions of Spoos, AXU's volume, and whacko cycle theories that support market crash scenarios. Middle ground??

If we are going to start banning posters; I want rj and earl banned.

Both of these two sometimes have good points to make but are very pompous

Before I tuned into arguments between posters who said little about THE PURPOSE OF THIS FORUM. I found that it slowed down my own research efforts, humble as they may be.
NOW I SIMPLY BYPASS THE BULL and advise all to do the same.

Hello DA:

What's going on in the silver lease rate market? The one month is quoted at 5.66%

So far, this week has been a very good year trading S&P's. The upside gap objectives have been met at 956 sept and 966 dec S&P. A reversal is now in order that will retrace a large if not all the recent advances. I bought the SPZ7 this morning at 958 and sold and went short at 967.50.

http://investools.com/cgi-bin/getreuts1.pl/1300309

A pretty red rose to all of the nice people who have been saying such interesting things about gold today. I don't have that Web TV, my nephew Earl set me up with one of his old computers and it works just fine. Earl's mom and grandma have both passed away within the last two years, and as sad as we were to lose Emily and Agnes, devastated really, it has brought Earl and his little son over to our place a lot more often, which is a lot of consolation.

My very best wishes to all of you.

Dow's on a highway to hell....all the suckers are in ...time to blow them out.

AND... did anyone else watch the special on GOLD on the Discovery channel? They'll be having future shows on other PM's and on Gem's. It was quite interesting. ( I had set up to tape it, watched it last night ) . What I found interesting was the "psychology" of gold ownership and use.

It's meaning in ancient cultures and current cultures. India & CHina for example where it's greatly revered ( and where we have ever increasing demand as of late ) . Catch the next show in the series and this one if it re-runs ( which they usually do on Discovery ) . It was excellent.

And oh yes, they didn't fail to slip in a comment about how gold no longer has much consideration in today's economies as a monetary instrument.

CARL: Did you see the post by Arden the other day about Bema? He has a good handle on it. I have been in since about 2 and got out at 8.5 ( US ) . I am back in at half my previous position at 5.59. For myself I would not go back until I can get down to an average price of $4 for the lot. It would need to drop another point for me to move. Even then I would not buy if I had a better opportunity elsewhere. The company seems honest, you will be buying below book, they have the gold and the management.

Jack when you say you "Bypass the Bull" I hope that doesn't mean you've been in PM's instead of the Equities market for the past 15 years!!! If so you've joined Hundreds of others who have "Bypassed the Bull" as well...

Russian coal miners on strike because they haven't been paid ( picky, picky, picky ) ( miners pun intended ) Power has been shutdown throught all of Eastern Russia.
http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/09/18/international_news/russiamin_1.html

Re: SSC, the money has been made already, stop lining others pockets.

Donald, Thanks for the response on Bema. No, I didn't see the post you referred to. But I think I will add to my position. By the way, I spent a few hours recently perusing the issues of Barrons for all of 1929. Very interesting exercise. For one thing, it was uncanny how similar the tone of reports then about the number of electrified homes were growing to the present new internet era talk now. The arresting difference was that GE and Westinghouse and RCA, even though they were making huge investments in the new technology of the day, were throwing off sizable dividends. ( 3.5 - 4.5 % ) even with their stocks flying into the stratosphere.

BYRON: Knaptime, Keep Kitty Komfy.

CARL: I did that electronically at this site. You can type a weekday date in the format 19871019 and read the day or search by subject.
http://www.csmonitor.com/plweb-cgi/iops1.pl

Donald re your 14:22, does anyone know whether the Platinum mines will be affected by power shutdown? If they are, could certainly be another uptick in the PL

Donald, I don't get it. The site you gave was for the Monitor back to 1980.

APH: Why do markets gravitate to gaps?? How do you "know" the S&P will turn at projected pt?? ( sorry for my ignorance ) .....also, do you project dow slam-down in near future?? Thanks, I guess I envy your technical prowess.

Mcwatters Mining now owns PDG's producing Sigma and Kiena Mines. The two mines probably produced over 10 million ounces over their life spans. Don't knock Sigma, I remember when she went from $3 to over $40, that is when she was a listed share. They say old soldiers never die, but in Quebec, they come back again and again. Don't let previous problems at Sigma effect your judgement's. Kiena was always good mine.
If interested, check the KITCO'S other board, page down to the 15th of Sept., my handle. Then check the news releases given.
IMO Mcwatters rates a serious look, they are real, not promotions.

viceroy has formed a signifigant bottom as of yesterday @2.50 level. Looks pretty cheap right here. Any thoughts of breaking support ?

Leverage is the vehicle that pushes markets beyond prudent levels. Once bull market reverses, leverage is the catalyst for panic selling. Short-interest level & NYSE Seats price bearish:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/puetz911.html

There is an uncanny similarity between the DOW from January 1920 to April 1930 AND TODAYS DOW track record. Neglect reading this study at your own peril - GUEST GURU URE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/ure718.html

Got an 86 SVO which I am hoping will one day be a collectible
like the Shelby GT500KR. Good luck with everything.

Savage - Gaps for some reason ( I don't know why ) provide natural points of support and resistance especially in trending markets. In some markets they are very useful as target areas and in other markets they're useless. After years of watching all kinds of markets in all kinds of conditions you develope a sense of when to pay attention to them. Example earlier this year I was convinced the XAU would cover the gap at 97.5 which it did. The current gap at 86 I don't think will get filled at least not in the short run. I can't give you a solid reason why other then it just doesn't seem right. Short the S&P or buy puts should be big winner over the next six weeks.

Turn Back the Clock 1980, Brokerage House Merril Lynch finally becomes bullish on gold at $ 825.00 an ounce.

I think Viceroy's Brewery Creek which was in start up has effected investor sentiment, because of the measly ounces produced thus far. Believe that if Viceroy was satisfied with this quarters production ( to date ) they would pre announce it.
My fingers are getting itchy, but the feet won't carry me to the phone, my brain says that their management knows the north country well.

September 18, 1997

Closing overseas stock market indices

LONDON ( Reuter ) - Here is how major stock markets outside the United States ended Thursday.
LONDON - Britain's FTSE 100 index marched toward its record peak, powered by a buoyant derivatives market, a rally in bonds and a strong start on Wall Street, dealers said. The FTSE 100 closed at 5,046.2, up 33.1 points, or 0.66 percent.

FRANKFURT - Stocks ended post-market computer trade not far from their best levels of the day, supported by a stronger Wall Street but with a lack of buying keeping a lid on the market. The DAX-30 index closed at 4,000.48, down 10.00 points, or 0.25 percent. In later screen-based trade the IBIS DAX index ended at 4,004.04, up 33.60 points, or 0.85 percent.

PARIS - Stocks finished more than 1 percent higher, propelled by a early rise on Wall Street after encouraging U.S. economic data, traders said. The CAC-40 index closed at 2,978.37, up 34.37 points, or 1.17 percent.

ZURICH - Stocks posted a fourth consecutive rise in an upbeat market as Nestle outshone other blue-chip stocks after better-than-expected half-year figures. The Swiss market index closed at 5,629.0, up 78.6 points, or 1.42 percent.

TOKYO - Stocks rebounded despite news that yet another "Big Four" brokerage was raided by prosecutors on suspicions that it made payoffs to a corporate racketeer, brokers said. The 225-stock Nikkei average closed at 17,930.09, up 246.82 points, or 1.40 percent.

HONG KONG - The stock market ended flat, pulled off lows on futures-led buying of selected blue chips in late afternoon, dealers said. The Hang Seng index closed at 14,419.45, up 8.26 points, or 0.06 percent.

SYDNEY - A bullish banking sector spurred the stock market to a higher close as traders bought into the local low inflation,lower interest rate environment. The All Ordinaries index closed at 2,696.3, up 17.0 points, or 0.63 percent.

JOHANNESBURG - Equities constituted a market on tenterhooks, ending broadly unchanged amid a mood of caution ahead of what many players expected to be a roller-coaster futures close-out Friday. The All-Stock index closed at 7,191.8,unchanged. The All-Gold index closed at 916.0, down 5.0 points, or 0.54 percent, while the Industrial index closed at
8,803.8, up 17.3 points, or 0.20 percent.

Turbochargers are finiky devils are'nt they. Love the hood scoop. 2-3 years of production = rarity !! Cheers !

CARL: That was my intent. I thought you wanted to see old news stories to get a feel for the mindset from actual newspaper stories. Here is one from October 19, 1987, the weekend before the '87 crash.
Although it's only October, the chill winds of winter have blown through the stock and bond
markets. Last week was particularly cold.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed the week at 2,246.73, a record 235.48 point drop in a
week that also saw the greatest one-day fall on Friday, of 108.36 points on a record volume of
338.48 million shares. Since its record high of 2,722 in August, the Dow has lost more than 17
percent of its value. Bonds, meanwhile, have hit their highest yields since Nov. 1985.

``Winter has come early to Wall Street,'' observes Alfred Goldman, director of technical market
analysis at A.G. Edwards & Co., St. Louis. ``The trouble has started, and we're in it.''

Most observers generally agree that the stock market's fall was long overdue. From August 1982
through August 1987, the Dow had risen 2,000 points. ``The market was ripe for a correction of
between 10 percent and 20 percent this year,'' says Monte Gordon, director of research at the
Dreyfus Corporation in New York. The five-year-old bull market has experienced little significant
correction until this year; a previous correction, in 1984, reached 10 percent. ``You can expect this
correction process for the next few weeks,'' Mr. Gordon says.

The market high could not be sustained, for reasons ranging from concerns about rising interest
rates to the country's $160 billion federal budget deficit and little reduction in the trade deficit. The
country is in its 59th month of recovery, the economy is fairly sluggish, and fears of inflation are
great.

On Thursday Chemical Bank raised its prime rate by half a percent, a move matched by Marine
Midland Bank on Friday. Such action renews concerns about inflation, especially because this is
the sixth hike in the prime this year.

``Interest rates will be forced up whether the Federal Reserve likes it or not,'' says John Connolly,
senior vice-president of Dean Witter Reynolds Inc. ``Chemical Bank basically countermanded the
Fed,'' which earlier that day brought funds into the banking system through repurchase agreements
to try to calm concern about a discount-rate increase. The Fed raised this rate, which is what it
charges member banks for loans, in September, the first time in three years.

Another reason for the stock market's fall, Mr. Goldman says, is its valuation levels. ``The high
price-earnings ratios, low yields, and book values of this market are levels you see close to the top
of a market, not the bottom,'' he explains.

An increase in bond interest rates, which have risen from 8 percent to 10 percent recently, also
contributed to the decline. ``This makes for stiff competition between stocks or bonds,'' Goldman
says. Interest-rate rises do not augur well for the bond market.

Also, third-quarter corporate results did not reach expected performance levels. ``Many analysts
are reevaluating the 1988 economy and earnings projections as a result,'' Goldman notes.

Perhaps one of the most stubborn concerns, which is spilling over to the markets, is the country's
$160 billion budget deficit. ``It is becoming more obvious that the United States is acting out the
role of the beggar internationally,'' says William Gillard, managing director of investment policy at
Kidder, Peabody & Co. ``While people are willing to lend money, they are not willing to lend at
low rates. They want to be compensated fairly.''

Because the private sector does not have $160 billion to lend, the country goes hat in hand
overseas. In 1985, the Group of Five - France, Britain, Japan, the United States, and West
Germany - agreed that each country would play its part in squaring up the international economy.
``The US hasn't taken the steps to ensure the progress in this problem,'' Mr. Gillard notes, ``so the
lenders are stepping up action.''

West Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, and the central bank of Japan have raised their
interest rates, Gillard says. ``They are departing from our parade and won't support the dollar the
way they did before. Germany particularly is interested in cooling economic activity to prevent
reinflation,'' he adds.

The August merchandise trade deficit figure of $15.68 billion, released last week, also affected the
market. The falling dollar was expected to cut the monthly figure to anywhere from $13.5 billion to
$15 billion.

``Although the trade figures released last week didn't reach the expectation, the trade deficit is
improving on a volume basis. This improvement is not showing up in the figures, however,'' says
Gordon at Dreyfus. ``The market was looking for good news, and it set up a straw man.''

On top of these factors, there is still a high level of bullishness about the market, which breeds
complacency about a sell-off. At market tops, people are still bullish, Goldman says. ``We also
have a problem in this market that half of the participants wouldn't know a bear market if it ate their
Mercedes,'' he says.

Yet now is not the time for investors to cut and run, Gordon says. ``There is no sign that inflation is
taking hold. The market is highly emotional, and fears are not generally warranted. Investors in
good stocks should hold their ground, because the market will rebound and will go on to a new
high,'' he says.

Mr. Connolly of Dean Witter suggests carrying liquidity and buying less volatile stocks or high-yield
stocks, such as utilities, which tend to show performance in a down market. ``Go for earnings in
cyclical stocks and interest-sensitive stocks, but not consumer stocks,'' he advises.

The Dow Jones utilities average has not fallen as far as the Dow Jones industrial average, observes
Edward Nicoski, managing director for technical research at Piper, Jaffray & Hopwood Inc., in
Minneapolis. ``This is a positive divergence, because people are putting money in interest-sensitive
stocks, like utilities.''

Two other investment options for this market are fixed-income instruments, which are securities that
pay a fixed rate of return, and certain stocks. ``I think the bond market has been overdone on the
downside,'' Mr. Nicoski says. ``Perhaps it's time to be a contrarian.''

On the equity side, Gillard advises looking at first-class companies selling internationally:
pharmaceuticals and the waste-management companies that are growing quickly. He also suggests
the regional Bell Telephone companies, because they are interest sensitive and give protection on a
market downside.

For those investors who do not hold stocks, Gillard suggests holding cash - Treasury bills or
riskless securities. ``These will prevent damage on the downside and allow you to buy on the
upside,'' he explains.

The market's behavior shows that investors have turned to cash. ``One way you raise cash is by
selling stocks,'' says Nicoski. ``This is reflected in the Dow being down 11 percent from its high in
August, while the over-the-counter issues, or secondary stocks, are down only 6 percent.''

Nicoski is another supporter of the regional Bells and other secondary stocks, particularly
technology. Regional banks deserve investors' attention, he adds.

``I think we're near the trading lows,'' he says. ``I think it's going to take some time to get back to
August highs; I'm not sure we'll see that by the end of the year.''

In 1980 when MLPFS was recommending gold they were probably selling their huge gold and gold share positions to the Lemmens. I think that they are now accumulating the Lemmens positions.

To All: ( or Al ) :

XAU and HUI finished at or near the top of the day's range, which the Dow Industrials finished 100 points or so below it's intraday high. : )
Now that's my kind of day. :- )

Hood scoops on a motorcycle? ( :- ) )

TTFN

Nice to read that article, the simmilarities are remarkable, and I take comfort in reading them. 'This time it's different' are famous last words on wall street, or so Galbraith has said. Did'nt notice talk of bullion's reaction, but I bet it was perking up considerably.

Presstek sues three investors who bad-mouthed the stock on the internet: http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100g.htm

GT500KR: I did a search for "Merril Lynch Gold" during 1980 hoping to find a reference to your comments. I was only able to find the story below. Did you know that the song "Happy Days" was recorded on October 29, 1929? That was Black Tuesday, the day of the 1929 crash. The reference is at the bottom.
Is the public developing a new love affair with the stock market?

Although it may not be a full-blown romance, the people's interest is at

least more than a flirtation. And there has been a definite improvement over

the 1970s, when the individual investor was turned off by a succession of bear

markets, leaving the stock market to pin-striped bankers and pension fund

managers.

ing money," says Teddy Sharp, a floor trader on the American Stock EXchange.

Statistics compiled by Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Inc., the

brokerage house, confirm Mr. Sharp's belief. Earlier in the year individuals

were net buyers of stock, a spokesman says. Recently, individuals have been

selling into the rally, taking profits. On the whole, the spokesman says, "in

conversations with our branches there is a marked increase in interest in the

market."

At Merrill Lynch alone, says Michael Wall, director of advertising, the

number of active retail accounts has grown in two years from 1.5 million to 2

million.

Individual interest in the stock market is also easily seen at the Merril

Lynch investment center in Grand Central Terminal.

In a glass-enclosed booth, referred to as "the tomb" by Merrill Lynch brokers

, Helen Koik, an "exhibit specialist," sits five days a week in front of a

series of screens displaying various market trends, the Dow Jones industrial

average, the ticker tape, and Merrill Lynch's own opinion on various stocks. At

the same time, men and a few women line up to push the buttons on machines that

give the latest prices on their stocks and bonds. At lunchtime the quotation

machine line can stretch past the Conrail information booth, sometimes prompting

people to wait in line at Merrill Lynch to try to find out when the next train

to Stamford, Conn., leaves.

On an average day, according to a Merrill Lynch survey done five years ago, 3

,500 to 4,000 people walk into a booth that is roughly 20 feet square and

retrieve stock information. If the market is active and either sharply up or

down, the crowd gets larger. If it's a lazy trading day, the Merrill Lynch

account executives, who are there to both answer questions and pick up new

accounts, end up talking to one another. Merrill Lynch brokers call the booth

"an absolute barometer for the market."

On a recent Friday, John Liu, who has been a registered representative for

one wek, is "prospecting" for customers. Mr. Liu, a native of Taiwan,

immediately strikes up a conversation in Chinese with another Chinese, who was

waiting to use the quote machines. Before the man leaves, he has Mr. Liu's card

tucked in his wallet.

"Ethnic groups sometimes feel more comfortable speaking their native

languages." says Miss Koik, who also speaks fluent Estonian.

For the most part, the spectators are content to watch the tape and get stock

quotas from the machines. But sometimes they actually impart information or

have some stocks to buy or sell.

Rene Hanley, who was known as the mayor of Grand Central during her five-

year stint in Miss Koik's current position, says that over the past five years

there has been a resurgence of interest in the market at the terminal. Another

change has been an increase in the number of interested women and young people,

she notes.

What kind of questions do investors have today?

Miss Hanley says that people are still mainly concerned with "preservation of

capaital," that is, not losing money. On this count, she says, the biggest draw

is still the money-market funds. These are nowadays yielding over 9 percent.

When investors ask about stocks, she says, they are mainly looking to gold

issues, high-technology stocks, and options. Just this past weeks, Miss Koik

says, the interest has been in a new issue called Genetech, which specializes in

biotechnology. And naturally, everyone is interested in Apple Computer, which

is supposed to be going public shortly.

The investors who frequent the Grand Central booth will soon have a surprise:

It will be closed for the month of November to undergo a complete renovation.

The new booth won't be much different from the old one, although the Merrill

Lynch bull might be a little larger and a little more prominent.

When informed of the booth's month- long closing, one of the many "regulars"

who visit the booth to watch the market predicted the closing will precipitate a

real sell-off in the market. But another regular decided that the closing would

just chase the tape-watchers over to the board that displays the train arrivals

and departures. His reasoning: People will watch anything while they're killing

time.

Last week in the market, there was a lot of commotion but very little

movement. Stock prices roared up in the beginning of the week and then fell

back at the end, with the Dow Jones industrial average closing at 950.68,

unchanged for the five-day trading period. Volume was relatively active.

Even though interest rates eased because of a drop in the money supply and a

subsequent easing by the Federal Reserve Board, there was still some anxiety in

the debt and stock markets. This wasn't helped when Citibank kept its prime

interest rate at 14 percent while almost all the other banks remained at 13 1/2

percent.

Tension in the Middle East still hadn't eased and investors at the end of the

week were wary about holding positions during the trouble.

With the Democrats whistling "Happy Days Are Here Again" as they barnstorm

around the country, some investors may get a little nostalgic for the "good ol'

days."

Those days have been re-created -- at least in song -- by Book-of-the-Month

Records, a division of Book-of-the-Month Club Inc., in a new record entitled

"Songs of the Depression." For history buffs, says George Spitzer of the record

division, it's worth remembering that "Happy Days" was recorded on Black Tuesday

, Oct. 29, 1929, the day the market crashed. There is even a hit for

economists: "Dancing in the Dark."

Miner's strike in Russia spreads. Gold miners join the fray: http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19970918/V000715-091897-idx.html

GT500KR: Sorry. I forgot to mention that my last post was from October 14, 1980

banning ( 13:49 ) : This site becomes more hilarious by the minute. Your's at the the indicated hour is among the more precious of recent memory and is received in the same spirit as hep.nut, our equally precious Site Misery Index of record.

Between loud peals of laughter, it was equally amusing to note that no memorable posts have ever been made under the handle of 'banning'. Given the reality of such, it further follows that given your heart's desire that those, whose words are not of your chosen churlish variety, be banned from further engagement in these proceedings, you would be reduced to watchin' the 'pitchers' and squiggly lines on Bart's most excellent charts.

In short, if it be your desire to learn from others, you will do so on their terms, not yours. Those, kind sir, are the rules of engagement. Perhaps it would be wiser to consider that the imperfection lies not in their presentations but rather in your capacity for commonplace understanding. For whatever reason, Bart continues to decline the issuance of intellectual spoons in service of those suffering a cognitive deficit. That being the case you will grab what you can, of what's offered and be damn glad for the opportunity. ... Just like the rest of us.

I know there are a lot of ABX and HM fans around here. Personally I think gold is stuck in the doldrums at this point. I think the best play in the metals complex now, is platinum and palladium. A lot of 'electrons' were used today to down play the PA/PT situation. CPM group targeted $500/oz by 1998. Others sought to explain ( read 'dismiss' ) the surge in platinum because of the TOCOM short position 'situation'. In addition, it is now being claimed that the Russians will deliver PA/PT in quantity... That remains to be seen.

Here is the intraday ABX chart with tick volume. Look at the chart, and make up your own mind. True, there are large individual trades on the long side ( funds buying ) , but you must weigh this against your time horizon. Don't forget, if they can buy a 100,000 share block... they can sell it too. Good luck.

I hear what you're saying Georgie...just stay out of politics because we didn't vote for you...and it's safer for us if you just play with gold.
Soros funds New Zealand documentary on East Timor

WELLINGTON, Sept 18 ( AFP ) - US financier George Soros has
donated 40,000 NZ dollars ( 25,200 US dollars ) to the making of a
film about a New Zealander killed by Indonesian soldiers in East
Timor in 1991.
Auckland University film studies lecturer Annie Goldson said she
applied to the New York-based Soros Documentary Fund in July for a
documentary feature she was producing and directing, NZPA reported.
Goldson has spent a year researching researching her film,
Punitive Damages, about Kamal Bamadhaj a New Zealander who was
killed in the Santa Cruz cemetery massacre in Dili in November
1991.
Scores of people were reportedly killed by Indonesian troops in
the demonstration at a cemetery in the capital of the troubled
territory, annexed by Indonesia in 1976.
Bamadhaj, 20, was the son of a New Zealand mother and a
Malaysian father. He was killed near the scene of the massacre.
In 1994 a group of US lawyers working for the Centre for
Constitutional Rights and Bamadhaj's mother, Helen Todd, sued one of
the Indonesian generals blamed for the massacre.
General Sintong Panjaitan had been sent to study at Harvard
University in Cambridge, Massachusetts and a legal case was started
because he was on US soil.
Todd was awarded 14 million US dollars in punitive damages for
the death of her son by a Bost court. But by then the general had
been whisked back to Indonesia.
The award has never been enforced because the general has since
remained outside the United States.
There was a video record of the trial and Goldson also hoped to
use film taken by British journalist Max Stahl. Stahl, who filmed
the massacre in Dili's Santa Cruz cemetery, buried the film in the
cemetery and retrieved it later after he had been interrogated for
nine hours by Indonesian soldiers.
Goldson estimated she would need about 700,000 NZ dollars to
complete Punitive Damages.
The Soros fund supported international documentary film and
videos on issues involving human rights, freedom of expression,
social justice and civil liberties. But it is the first time a New
Zealand project has been awarded a grant.

We agree on this one Earl, censorship is Tohu and Bohu either way. But why all the flowery prose? Can't you just say, "Hey Banning, pound sand.." ( LGB, poster who NEVER uses more than the tiniest amount of bandwidth ;- )

September 18, 1997

Dollar rises against the mark and yen, G7 in focus

NEW YORK ( Reuter ) - The dollar rose against the German mark Thursday after the Bundesbank held interest rates steady and a top U.S. official voiced concern over the state of the European economy.

Dealers interpreted Rubin's comments to mean that the United States would not support interest rate hikes in Germany or other European countries.

Rubin's comments "were a little signal he certainly doesn't want them to raise interest rates and one of the reasons the mark was strengthening ( earlier ) was because of potential for higher interest rates ( in Germany ) ," said Ivan Sands, chief dealer at Credit Lyonnais in New York.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/DOLLAR.html

And now, the Homestake chart... Oh, the volume indicated on the right side is the actual trade volume. There is no scale factor. So if you see a green volume line that equates to 30,000, that was a single long trade ( a buy order ) of 30, 000 shares.

LGB: It's more fun to tell someone to go to hell in an uncommon fashion. After all, why resort to the commonplace when the pompous and convoluted are more interesting. At least for me. Besides I'm just picking up the slack in bandwidth that you've chosen to abandon. .... : )

Seriously, anyone who does not recognise how quickly the hinds of the world can limit personal freedom of expression, is not paying attention. Recent comments on this site are an excellent example of such.

As an alternative, force people to post real addresses. I've always done it and have not ever had a problem. Not one. The jerks will never address by email because then the recipient knows who they are. They become a self limiting disease, in that regard.

After some reflection on the subject, I do think it is a good idea to register a handle and true email address though. It might cut a lot of disruption that seems to be occurring with increasing frequency. It would go far to bringing back some of the outstanding minds that have left as a result of the loony tunes such as hep.nut.

LGB: It's more fun to tell someone to go to hell in an uncommon fashion. After all, why resort to the commonplace when the pompous and convoluted are more interesting. At least for me. Besides I'm just picking up the slack in bandwidth that you've chosen to abandon. .... : )

Seriously, anyone who does not recognise how quickly the hinds of the world can limit personal freedom of expression, is not paying attention. Recent comments on this site are an excellent example of such.

As an alternative, force people to post real addresses. I've always done it and have not ever had a problem. Not one. The jerks will never address by email because then the recipient knows who they are. They become a self limiting disease, in that regard.

After some reflection on the subject, I do think it is a good idea to register a handle and true email address though. It might cut a lot of disruption that seems to be occurring with increasing frequency. It would go far to bringing back some of the outstanding minds that have left as a result of the loony tunes such as hep.nut.

Sorry 'bout that. It wasn't worth a double post except to slow learners like banning.

Sorry 'bout that. It wasn't worth a double post except to slow learners like banning.

September 18, 1997

U.S. to pressure Japan over trade at G7 meeting

SEATTLE ( Reuter ) - Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said Thursday he would tell Japan at this weekend's financial meetings in Hong Kong that it must cut its ballooning trade surplus with the rest of the world.

Rubin said he would raise the issue of such numbers at the meeting. "I'm going to say that those kinds of deficits if they continue on a sustained basis are adverse to the best interests of the world trading system and to Japan's interests," he told reporters.

Speaking shortly before leaving for Hong Kong, the former investment banker also helped to bolster the value of the dollar on the foreign exchange markets by reiterating that Washington's currency policy remained unchanged.

Turning to Washington's vexed relations with China, Rubin told the audience at the National Center for APEC ( Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation ) that the United States had "serious disagreements" with Beijing.

"Make no mistake: we have serious disagreements with China on human rights, religious freedom, security issues, as well as economic issues, and we will discuss all of these when I meet with the Chinese leadership."
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/IMF-RUBIN.html

Donald, Thanks for clarifying. The Merrill piece came from Richard E. Band's book: "Contrary Investing for the 90's". I think Doug Casey made a refrence to the same point in "Crisis Investing". Another zinger: I was at a site that claimed Homestake Mining increased 500% between 1929 and 1934.

Hits and misses: Made another 25 k today in a single non-PM stock. But my results for the entire year still are very unsatisfactory. Much too much in cash, much too little in stocks. Like most longs, I had losses in gold, albeit modest in scope. But my real mistake was having way too much in money funds and way too little in non-PM stocks.

Have to admit it -- I would have done much better investing the LGB way. But 1998 will be another story.

I know people on the Hill and they say Rubin is truly committed to human and religious rights. They say he is really a decent man.

Panda: Pretty nice info on that chart. How does one go about figuring which of the green lines is his??? Brought some Newmont yesterday. Hope to keep scaling in as we continue the move up during the next couple of months. : )

Dow/Gold Ratio 24.72

George, I too have lamented the reasonableness of holding so much cash, ( up to 80 % ) . Richard Lowenstein's book on "Buffet, the making of an American Capitalist", has a chapter entitled 'Rhinophobia': which is the fear of holding cash. I take comfort in knowing me and Warren are in the same boat !! Cheers !

D.A.

You had a question as to how the Junior's did in late-early 1992-1993. This URL chart might give you the answer you were looking for. It's a chart of a Junior Gold Mine Index.

http://www.tscn.com/wsc/timespan.html?TSym=.MJGU?397,12

Rubin, a true Missionary of Human rights, and Religion is he.
Maybe, he should walk the streets of Washington, eh!
He is just doing a tough job, must put his personal feelings on hold, right.

LGB The action in SSC is incredibly bullish in an On Balance Volume sense. Is this telling us something about the company or the near term or intermediate term price of silver or all of the aformentioned? Thanks!

Senator threatens Janet Reno with impeachment for failure to appoint Special Prosecutor.
http://www.chron.com:80/cgi-bin/auth/story/content/chronicle/nation/97/09/15/donate.2-0.html

Both are Fall Classics...??

Ted - Dodgers vs Giants on right NOW. Surfin' channels and sipping something chilly. It's ALL good... 7th inning 1 out 5-5 tie Giants @ plate. LA will beat SF for pennant...takers?

oh no...base hit two men on 1 out...

Gold - Or shall I call you Mr. October?? Or Mr. Chokester :- ( Let's get it ON!!

AWAY...to call the peanut guy...
EB$

Inflation: Concern grows over rate rise

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 18 1997

By Richard Adams, Economics staff

Interest rates look set to rise again following the publication yesterday of
figures showing an upturn in the pace of wage increases, steep falls
inunemployment and increased consumer spending.

Bank of England officials are concerned over evidence that the recent sharp
reductions in unemployment are forcing companies to increase wages to
attract new staff, which in turn could push up the rate of inflation.

The Office for National Statistics said yesterday that the underlying annual
increase in average earnings rose by 4.5 per cent in July - an increase of 0.25
of a percentage point since the previous month.

The ONS also said the seasonally-adjusted number claiming unemployment
benefits fell for the 18th consecutive month during August, by 48,000. The
headline level of unemployment is 1.49m - the lowest since August 1980.

The percentage of the workforce claiming unemployment benefits also fell to
its lowest level for 17 years, to 5.3 per cent. In July the rate was 5.5 per cent.

Andrew Smith, education and employment minister, said unemployment would
fall further after the introduction of the government's 'Welfare to Work'
programme next year.

But Stephen Dorrell, shadow employment secretary, said the fall in claimants
was testimony to the previous Conservative administration's economic
success.

The Bank had warned in its latest Inflation Report that an acceleration in the
growth rate of earnings would take them "above the level consistent with the
inflation target".

Analysts warned that bottlenecks had appeared in some sectors. Annual wage
growth in the construction industry went up to 4.8 per cent in July, after 4.4
per cent in June. There have been complaints of shortages of skilled
bricklayers and carpenters from the Confederation of British Industry and
other employer organisations.

David Walton, an economist at Goldman Sachs investment bank, said: "It is
hard to see unemployment continuing to decline by around 50,000 a month
without putting real pressure on certain key areas."

There was further evidence in the retail sector of a buoyant economy
yesterday. The ONS said the annual increase in the volume of retail spending
last month rose to 5.6 per cent, seasonally-adjusted. While that was down on
July's figure of 6.7 per cent, August 1996 had itself seen strong growth.

The ONS said "windfall" payments accounted for an extra 100m of spending
during July and August, mainly on carpets and household goods.

The figures came as two UK retailers published results showing they had
benefited from the increase in consumer spending.

Next, the retail clothes group, said its sales were rising by 13 per cent a year.
And Kingfisher, which includes high street retailers Woolworths, Comet and
Superdrug, reported strongly increased sales and profits.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England said its monetary policy committee had
voted unanimously for the latest of four recent interest rate rises, when it
published the minutes of the August 7 meeting. Unemployment dilemma for
policymakers, Page 10

Brazil: Nerves on edge as storm clouds gather

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 19 1997

By Geoff Dyer

They are battening down the hatches in Braslia in preparation for what
threatens to be a stormy 18 months for the Brazilian economy, in the period
up to and beyond next October's presidential elections.

Since the economic crisis hit south-east Asia in July, some economists have
suggested that Brazil, which is running large fiscal and current account
deficits, could be the next emerging market to become a victim of currency
speculators.

So just how vulnerable is the real, the new currency which was launched three
years ago? It is not just the crucial economic question for Brazil, which is
enjoying its first sustained period of economic stability for decades, but for the
region as a whole.

Because Brazil accounts for around half of the gross domestic product of
Latin America, an economic crisis there would have profound ramifications for
the rest of the continent. Just ask an Argentine exporter what is the biggest
risk facing his business next year.

Given the potential for markets to become nervous about Brazil, the
government has recently made some pre-emptive economic strategy moves.
There will be no surprises, no changes and no risks taken with its new-found
economic stability, is the message the government impart.

The appointments in August of Gustavo Franco as head of the central bank
and Andr Lara Resende as special adviser to President Fernando Henrique
Cardoso were designed to emphasise that there will be continuity in economic
policy - both men were part of the team of economists that planned the new
real.

However, while these moves might calm nerves at the moment, most analysts
agree that the risks will start to rise in the second half of next year as the
election approaches.

The dilemma for the government is that despite its success in reducing inflation,
it has a mix of economic policies which are not sustainable in the long term.
The fiscal deficit is more than 5 per cent of gross domestic product, despite
intense efforts to reduce it. Meanwhile, the cost of using a strong and
overvalued currency to keep prices under control is high real interest rates and
a current account deficit equivalent to 4.3 per cent of GDP and growing. The
question is whether these problems are manageable in the short term, while
longer-term solutions are sought.

The danger is that under the pressure of election year the twin deficits will
deteriorate, prompting the markets to lose some of their confidence in the
government.

Any increase in public spending would lead to a rise in the fiscal deficit, while
a pre-election consumption surge would be likely to aggravate the current
account. Upward pressure on prices would also result. And even a modest
increase in inflation would prevent the government from easing the pressure on
exporters through engineering a real devaluation of the currency. ( The real is
depreciating at a nominal rate of around 8 per cent a year, under a
closely-managed system of exchange rate bands, while inflation is expected to
be around 6 per cent in 1997 ) .

Under these circumstances - a worsening trade balance and a currency still
overvalued - investors might begin to suspect that the government will attempt
to push for a sharper devaluation once the election is out the way, as Mexico
tried to do in 1994. If that becomes the conventional wisdom, speculators
might decide to force the issue.

However, the majority of economists take a more relaxed view about the
Brazilian situation. Brazil's current account deficit of 4.3 per cent of GDP
requires a substantial inflow of capital, but it is well short of Mexico's 7.8 per
cent in 1994 and Thailand's 8.3 per cent, economists point out.

Moreover, up to a half of the deficit is being financed by long-term, direct
foreign investment, led by a huge privatisation programme, rather than by
more volatile, short-term capital. Citibank estimates the government will raise
$80bn over the next three years from privatisation.

A further optimistic note is struck by John Welch, chief economist for Latin
America at Paribas in New York, who argues that the ratio of money supply
( in this case M2 ) to government reserves is a good indicator of an impending
crisis. In late 1994 the ratio rose to nearly 20 in Mexico, while it began to
increase in April this year in Thailand. Brazil's ratio is stable at around three,
he says.

There are three main factors which will determine which of these viewpoints is
correct over the next 18 months. First, politics. If Mr Cardoso faces only one
challenger from the left in the elections next year, his economic record will put
him in a comfortable position. However, if he faces several opponents, he
could be pulled in several directions and the risk of fiscal indiscipline would
increase.

Second, to maintain credibility in the markets, the government has to keep the
political momentum going, especially on privatisation but also on its fiscal
reforms.

The third factor is the most unpredictable for the Brazilian government. A
change in the international financial environment, either because of higher
interest rates or falling share prices in developed economies, would slow
down the flow of liquidity to Brazil. If that happens, those twin deficits could
look considerably larger than they do now.

September 18, 1997

SEC seeks reforms to shareholder proposal process

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - Trying to kill two birds with one stone, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Thursday decided unanimously to consider new proxy rules that aim to please both companies and shareholders.

Under the SEC's proposals shareholders who can muster 3 percent of the company's share ownership could get some proposals on the ballot even if they fail to qualify as relevant issues.

Brian Lane, director of the SEC's Division of Corporation Finance said this proposal is a "boon" for big shareholders. "It certainly gives an opportunity to make their case to other shareholders," he said.

However, it would be more difficult for shareholders to get proposals that which have failed to receive support from fellow shareholders in previous years onto the ballot.

Resubmissions would need to have received at least 5 percent of the shareholders' approval to be on the ballot the following year and up to a 30 percent approval to make their way on the ballot for a third year.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BUSINESS-SEC.html

September 18, 1997

Clinton Names Paul Carey, Laura Unger to SEC posts

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - President Bill Clinton plans to nominate White House Aide Paul Carey and Senate aide Laura Unger as commissioners to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the White House said Thursday.
Carey is currently a special assistant to the president for legislative affairs.

Unger, a Republican, is securities counsel for the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. She has also served as an aide to Sen. Alfonse D'Amato, a Republican from New York. D'Amato, who chairs the Senate Banking Committee, said he was "very pleased the president has made two terrific nominations to the SEC." His panel will vote on the nominations.

"I believe both will be speedily confirmed," the lawmaker said.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/CLINTON-NOMINEES.html

Donald,
Thank you for the ongoing updates. I wish I would have linked the dow/gold chart when it first appeared here. Does anyone have the date and time it was last posted?

As per my post last night, does anyone have an opinion as to why gold lease rates have spiked up?

TSE Gold & Silver Index up 2.65% today!

I'm just trying on the hat...seeing how it works ;-$ )

MSheller - What? Why no usual words of wisdom...must be Busy

What does anyone think 'bout Short Corn?? Rain means Grain? Big Supplies? Sure is Volatile... 250 puts around 6.7 cents?? This market seems great to trade right now. Plenty of decent spreads to play either way... Cap'n Kev...? Corn players??

Away...to shine the crystal Balls
EB

To all you silver buffs: Sunshine Mining ( SSC ) looks real interesting in here. The recent spike in the volume, approaching 1 million, is not something we've seen with SSC in a long time. It could mean the company is close to announcing it has found a partner to raise the 100 million necessary to develop its latest silver mine in South America ... or it could mean it is going to follow the price of silver up, as it did in 1993 .. or both! Then, Silver went up 2.00 an ounce; SSC jumped from 1/2 buck to about $4. The stock has a history of sudden, violent spikes. She's a beauty when she gets going!

September 18, 1997

Canada high court to hear Quebec case in February

OTTAWA, Sept 18 ( Reuter ) - The Supreme Court will hear arguments next February on whether Quebec can secede unilaterally from Canada, Chief Justice Antonio Lamer announced on Thursday.

The federal government, shaken by the near victory by separatists in a 1995 Quebec sovereignty referendum, had asked the court a year ago to rule on the legality of any future unilateral declaration of independence.

On Thursday the court dealt with procedural matters, setting the week of Feb. 16 for oral arguments, during a one-hour hearing boycotted by the separatist government of mainly French-speaking Quebec.

No substantive points were discussed inside the Supreme Court, but outside on the court steps emotionally charged arguments played out before the press.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/CANADA-QUEBEC-PICTUR.html

To Mike Sheller,
What interest would you have in doing a chart for the Kitco "Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts". I believe the time of birth was Wednesday, April 10, 1996 16:53 EDT. Location: Montreal ( well the parent, at least - I don't know where the actual server is located ) It might be entertaining to see if your art can track it's personality development - major influences, personality conflicts etc.

To all friends:
Could anyone provide me with a ( dys ) functional definition of a hepclone? If it turns out that I'm a disinformationalist, I want my check! ; )

BTW, When exactly did John make the infamous 325 call anyway - was it date specific? Did he ever mention a method? ( One Fibonacci reference found - but who knows about im-posters )

Oh, to be on topic - how does bulllions' triple bottom action bode for next week GSC, others? My analysis ( purely technical ) still points to a downdraft until mid-October ( 300  5 ) . Although spot strength has proved me wrong so-far in september.

TTFN-hinwyt

September 18, 1997

Soybeans fall on weather, supply; silver jumps

CHICAGO ( Reuter ) - Soybean prices closed lower Thursday as focus shifted away from tight supplies and fears of a crop-damaging frost in the Midwest this weekend faded.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, soybeans for post-harvest delivery in November closed 9 cents a bushel lower at $6.35. A record U.S. soybean crop of 2.7 billion bushels is expected this year. But remaining supplies at the start of this month had fallen to 115 million bushels, barely a month's supply at a time of red-hot demand for soybean meal, soyoil and other byproducts of soybean processing.

"The perception is that silver is fairly cheap relative to the supply-demand outlook. The longer-term fundamentals would point to a limited downside," said David Rinehimer, director of futures research for Smith Barney. December silver at the COMEX closed at $4.685 an ounce, up 8.0 cents from Wednesday's close. December gold closed 50 cents an ounce higher at $322.70.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/COMMODITIES.html

Holy moly! Are we in a trading range, or what??!! Cruise over to:

http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.html

and see the last three days in the world gold market. Can anyone comment on why things are so bunched these days?

European Central Bank: Fiercely
independent institution

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 19 1997

By Wolfgang Mnchau

For all the doubts over European economic and monetary union, one of its
strong points will be its institutional set-up. Emu now looks more likely to go
ahead as scheduled in early 1999 though there is uncertainty about which
countries will participate in the first wave. But there is one aspect over which
there is little doubt: if Emu goes ahead, it will be backed by one of the fiercest
independent central banks the world has ever known.

On the present schedule, the European Central Bank ( ECB ) is due to come
into existence in the second half of next year. On January 1, 1999 it will take
over from the European Monetary Institute ( Emi ) , and assume full
responsibility for setting European interest rates. On that date, the central
banks of participating countries will become de facto subsidiaries. Together,
the national central banks and the ECB will form the European System of
Central Banks.

The ECB will be closely modelled on the Bundesbank, the German central
bank, but may be even more independent. While the German central bank's
independence is enshrined in simple law, which requires only a simple
parliamentary majority to change, the ECB's independence is enshrined in the
Maastricht Treaty.

Article 107 states clearly that "neither the ECB, nor a national central bank,
nor any member of their decision-making bodies shall seek or take instructions
from community institutions or bodies, from any government of a member
state or from any other body".

Furthermore, the treaty also narrowly defines the ECB's primary objective as
maintaining price stability. The ECB is also required, in vague terms, to
support the economic policies in the Community, but, crucially, "without
prejudice to the objective of price stability". This again emphasises that price
stability will override any other objective in EU economic policy. Not even the
Bundesbank operates under such a narrowly-defined remit.

Even its composition is modelled closely on the Bundesbank. Its governing
council will consist of a six-strong executive board - a president, a
vice-president and four other members - and the heads of the national central
banks. Like the Bundesbank's council, the ECB's governing council will meet
at regular intervals and set the level of short-term interest rates.

While the Maastricht Treaty has gone to great lengths to specify the ECB's
responsibilities, a number of points remain unresolved. For example, it is
unclear whether the ECB could veto a decision by ministers to set an
exchange-rate policy that the ECB might consider a threat to its anti-inflation
objectives. Formally, exchange-rate policy lies within the responsibility of EU
finance ministers.

Lionel Jospin, the French prime minister, has repeatedly invoked the notion of
a political counterweight to the independent central bank. His call has touched
a raw nerve in Germany, where Emu is viewed with great suspicion among the
general public.

Given the clear legal mandate, there is little chance that the ECB's
independence will be watered down in areas where it has sole responsibility,
such as the setting of monetary policy. But a political counterweight could still
emerge for policy areas where there exists overlap between government and
central bank policy. Exchange-rate policy is an obvious example. In practice,
however, it would be difficult to imagine that the euro, which will become one
of the world's largest reserve currencies, would operate under any other
exchange-rate regime than a free-float against the dollar and the yen.

Other unresolved issues include the presidency of the ECB. All EU members,
except France, support Wim Duisenberg, president of the Emi and a former
Dutch central bank chief, as the first president of the ECB. President Jacques
Chirac insisted that the issue be kept open. Privately, senior officials have
made it clear that they prefer a candidate with political antennae geared
specifically towards the French public.

One French official even claimed that it was inconceivable for the head of the
ECB not to be able to speak French, although Mr Duisenberg is believed to
be a fluent French speaker.

In terms of its own operational policies, it has yet to be decided whether the
ECB will pursue a monetary target, as is the case in Germany, or an inflation
target, a competing method of monetary policy which is used predominantly in
the UK and in Scandinavia.

Under monetary targeting, a central bank sets a targeting range for a broad
measure of the money supply, such as M3, hoping that the supply of money
will affect future price levels.

This method has worked reasonably well in Germany - although the
Bundesbank met its money supply targets in no more than 50 per cent of the
cases. In other countries, such as the UK, the money supply has failed as a
barometer of inflation.

Inflation targeting is a more widely-based approach, at the centre of which
stands a forecast of future inflation, based on various scenarios.

Given Germany's strong weight in this debate and the Bundesbank's relative
success with monetary targeting, it appears likely that the ECB will adopt
monetary targeting, at least initially. Mr Duisenberg said he favoured this
approach because it would help ensure consistency and would allow the ECB
to establish credibility with financial markets.

There is an irony in all this, since some French politicians had at one stage
looked upon Emu as a way of reducing the Bundesbank's influence. While this
was never an officially stated goal, anyone who thought along these lines
would find that Emu had created an institution that was not only based in
Frankfurt but one that was more independent and potentially more powerful
than the Bundesbank.

This was the price that Germany and many of the smaller EU countries
extracted at Maastricht in return for agreeing to Emu in the first place.

RON@SAC: Re your 16:36 on libel etc. on internet BB's etc. This is an area that I suspect will bloom for lawyers without much to do. It is in its infancy and a lot of law will be written in due course. The Orange County Register on May 26, l997 carried an AP article by Elizabeth Weise that had a lot of good info re this subject. One cannot hide behind false labels as has been pointed out here.

September 18, 1997

Securities industry committee urges full disclosure of dealer investments

CALGARY ( CP ) - A joint securities industry committee has urged stock brokers and their firms to adopt tough new disclosure rules it has proposed for emerging company markets to soothe investor fears over conflicts of interest.

A recent series of spectacular market crashes, including Bre-X Minerals, Timbuktu Gold Corp. and Cartaway Resources - all junior mining companies - has shaken the securities industry.

The committee is made up of representatives from member companies of the four stock exchanges - Montreal, Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver - along with the Investment Dealers Association. It was formed a year ago amid concerns brokers were playing both sides of the street in the emerging companies market.

As it stands now, disclosure provisions don't kick in until one broker or member firm reaches the 10 per cent mark. Several brokers at the same firm can each hold less than 10 per cent and not disclose this to
clients, not giving investors a true picture of the possible conflicts of interest.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Investment-Disclosure.html

Re SSC activity, call me a simpleton, but I think investors are finally waking up to the fact that we will run out of above ground inventories of silver in the next 2 years, should the consumption remain as strong it has for the past 5 or so. Furthermore, SSC is basically the "Blue Chip" of North AMerican silver stock plays, is at unprecedented bargain levels, and has always been relatively well managed. With their new operation, and who knows what kind of new financing and/or takeover possibilities may arise, what direction can it go but up? Hey Cole, wish I could make $25K in one day! CLosest I ever came was about 3K on Tuesday!!! ( and we all know WHY that happened.... : ) Now what stock pick was that you scored on? Inquiring minds.....

EB: Who won??....Earl: Why are you st stutter stuttering??...Tomorrow is triple witchin.....

New research indicates a horrific crash of the DOW on Monday. The triggering event will be the Vernal Equinox. Careful analysis of past crash events shows clearly, that they virtually ALL ocurred within 45 days of one of these Quadrennial change of season events. Furthermore, this particular Equinox is the change from sunny optimism of summer, to gloomy Fall/Winter period. Most crashed have ocurred during this gloomy period. When this fact is combined with the effects of El Nino, and the looming Y2K disastor, it becomes obvious that we'll see DOW 3000 by the end of next week! Buy S & P Puts and PM's as fast as you can!!

BGL ( Burking Gel Lug )

Mornin' Mates...

I'm gettin' ready to throw some steaks on the Barby...oh my! Steaks & Lowies & Baseball...oh my!

away...to turn the meat ( sorry Ted )
EB$

cricket? what's that?? ;- )

THOR: What! You don't have the bb fisher Dow/Gold Ratio Chart? Your Goldbug Operators License is hereby downgraded to "Goldbug Learners Permit" Class Z ( Class Zed if you are Canadian ) . You can find the chart at July 27, 1997. There are two posts, one at 5:34 AM, the other at 5:37 AM. Set your printer to landscape mode before you print. You will need to trim the left edge of the 5:34 chart with scissors and paste it together as a single chart. If you have a problem send me your postal address at the e.mail address I have shown and I will snail mail one to you. ( offer open to all ) Mabye we can get bb fisher to do an update chart for us this weekend. When the chart is in your hand we will fully restore your Goldbug License.

5-5 bottom of the 10th

Hmmm BGL, not only THAT, but we ALSO have this Equinox occuring precisely 7 days from the Lunar Eclipse. And we KNOW, that the number 7 has astrophysical meaning with a conjunction such as this. Especially following a "Triple Withcing" Friday. The astral plane is obviously converging with the physical stream of conciousness, and the lines have crossed on my chart indicating a break out. You strike me as a brilliant analyst... All shoudl heed your advice ( and mine ) ... LGB

D.A. - Let's do something unheard of here at Kitco - Let's have an inteligent discusion of Silver!

I believe that Silver is currrently in a trading range and that silver WILL not enter a bull market until Gold does also. "Do you believe that Silver can see prices above $6.00 while Gold is still in a bear market. A bear market is when prices are below the 200 day MA ( Currently about $345 and dropping for Gold ) "

Why in the world would the funds want to start the bull market in silver months before the bull market in Gold? Don't you think that they will start relitively close together? Say within a couple weeks?

Copper is the most economically sensitive metal that there is. Can we see Gold at $425 while copper is below $1.00??

Crude Oil is the most inflation sensitive commodity that there is.
Can we see $425 Gold with Oil below $20??

Even $1.00 copper and $20 oil is not that great. "I" belive that the next time Gold gets above $400 oil will be above $25 and as long as Oil is below $25, Gold will never see $425. The break out point for copper is a tough one but copper below $1.10 is not good for Gold. I think we will see Copper above $1.10 the next time Gold gets above $400

How about 30 t-bonds? As long as the T-Bond contract in chicago is above 110.00 then everything is holding together. Can we see Gold above $400 again while the 30 Y is Yielding less than 7.5%??? I doubt it, but that's just me. The next time Gold is above $400 the 30 Year bond will be yeilding more than 7.5% that day!

The money supply DROPPED this week, so much for that one. Yea, silver did look strong today and I thought of doing something, but there is a big difference between silver going up another $0.15 cents and $6.00. Remember the lowest strike I'm short is the $5.75 and most of my shorts are at $6.25 and $7.00.

Bottom line - Silver "may" go up a little more but the rally will be so slow that the call will go DOWN in value slowly and when silver does start down again they will decrease substantally. Only time will tell.

It warms my heart to see Kitcoites warmingt to SSC as the days go by. Remember lads & lassies, I was very hot & high on the stock at its recent lows at Kitco. Hopefully, those lows are past and this issue, while still DIRT for the nonce ( that's Shakeseaperan for Speed's info ) will be selling a FEW BUCKS higher a year or so down the road. That's HUNDREDS percent folks. So let us not crow about a few percent here, a few percent there. SSC is a TRIPLE play play. Whenever, wherever. And EVER is NOW.

...and I also rest my case on BONDS! Those who paid attention...Bless You!

Sorry men, my post on the money being made on SSC, in response to LGB's post was a big misunderstanding. In Canada, eh !, that's the symbol for a financial management co. that has shot to the sky recently, ( like all financial co's ! ) , hence my comment. I will look into sunshine. I recall Doug Casey, three years ago saying he liked the Sunshine debentures. I will check if they still trade. I have a bone for you silver players. I made a nice doubble on Consolidated Silver Mines on Vancouver. If it drops back to the dollar level, I'm in again. Let me do a little digging on SSC.NYSE. On the home front, the TSE was way up today, led by guess which sub group, the golds !!!. Sooner or later maker neophytes will get tired of paying for non-existant earnings and assets, and then I guess we all hope to be selling tickets at the gold turnstyle. Ta Ta !

CRAIG: Thank you for the vote of confidence. But if I cast a 'scope for Kitco, what could I say that we all don't know already? We are a magnificent, contentious, witty, surly, ugly, beautiful, intelligent, idiotic lot! But thanks for paying attention to important details like time zones, location, etc. You are a great help to astrologers, everywhere!

Kenya: Test case for tough stance

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 19 1997

By Michela Wrong

In a small way, history was made at a room in Nairobi's Serena Hotel last
month. Under the television lights, the head of a visiting International Monetary
Fund mission dropped any pretence that the fund remained aloof from politics.

Point by point he spelled out the corruption issues troubling the institution and
the government action the IMF demanded before a suspended $220m loan
could resume. "If these actions are undertaken, we will move ahead. It is left
to the government to decide how fast they do these things," he told journalists.

In breaking with a tradition of clandestine negotiations and bland public
statements, he confirmed that Kenya is to act as a test case for the fund's and
the World Bank's tough new line on "governance issues" - Bretton
Woods-speak for graft.

The choice of Kenya is logical, if high risk.

As a country which has received $8bn in foreign aid between 1986 and 1995
- admittedly much of it channelled into non-governmental organisations -
Kenya should by rights be a showpiece for structural adjustment.

As East Africa's dominant economy and the stable heart of a region teetering
on the edge of chaos, it also deserves the international community's full
attention. Kenya's economic collapse would spill far beyond national borders.

But the choice is risky because the IMF, in belatedly making the link between
political and economic good health, is challenging the modus operandi of an
entire regime. And in a pre-electoral period, President Daniel arap Moi can ill
afford to alienate his self-enriching entourage.

Kenya's story is one of brave moves rarely seen through to their conclusion.
In 1993 Musalia Mudavadi, the finance minister, and Micah Cheserem, the
central bank governor, launched what was to become the most rapid
deregulation of an African economy ever seen.

Import licences were scrapped, the Kenya shilling was floated, restrictions on
repatriation of profits were lifted and price controls were abolished.

The shilling strengthened, inflation was brought under control, millions of
dollars poured into Treasury bills and the stock exchange, buoyed by a
sweeping privatisation programme, looked to be one of the continent's most
exciting exchanges.

But by 1996 there was a growing awareness that the reform process had
slowed to a near halt, sabotaged by an elite waking up to the threat posed to
its privileges.

The IMF and World Bank complained about delays in privatising the
telecommunications and power companies, two important sources of
patronage for the ruling Kanu party.

Presidential whims, such as the building of an international airport in the town
of Eldoret and the purchase of a jet aircraft, made a mockery of government
accountability.

The failure to renovate a crumbling infrastructure, combined with Kenya's
growing reputation as a country where every transaction involved obligatory
"sweeteners", was proving to be a deterrent to investors.

It was against this backdrop that the IMF and World Bank last month publicly
announced their demands, ranging from energy sector reform to measures to
ensure the autonomy of the Kenya Revenue Authority and to establish an
independent anti-corruption authority.

Stressing that the aim was not to punish Kenya, the IMF spokesman said
Kenya had the potential for 9-10 per cent growth rates. "But this is not going
to be possible if resources are misused, squandered and used for selfish ends,"
he said.

Mr Moi has promised to deliver on all points. But few believe he can.

"The biggest headache for Moi is that fingers always point at his 'most trusted'
deputies, allies and powerbrokers," said Kenya's Economic Review. "These
are the same people who keep Kanu's political machinery properly oiled,
hence Moi depends on them to remain in power."

Failure will be costly. Following the IMF suspension, the shilling depreciated
at one stage by nearly 30 per cent, inflation soared and foreign investors
pulled out of Treasury bills. Mr Mudavadi was forced to raise taxes and the
central bank warned of possible problems in covering its debt payments.

In its latest newsletter, Loita Asset Management predicts zero growth for the
rest of the year and 1-2 per cent for 1997 as a whole, a far cry from
government estimates of 4 per cent. "The economy is dead in the water with
little prospect of a motor to generate momentum," writes Loita's John Ngumi.

If that prospect maintains pressure on Mr Moi, it also puts the reputation of
the IMF, which cannot consign Kenya to oblivion, on the line.

Mike Sheller: Serious slack sought, SSC secured!
( I bought some SSC today!!! )

Slack secured! Roger!

MIKE SHELLER: Apparently Ted has run out of blueberries in Cape Breton because at about 3:15 I saw a huge flock of birds going down the center of Long Island Sound heading your way. Fall is on the way.

Congratulations are in order for the magnificent Gold-Eagle website
http://www.gold-eagle.com/ Gold-Eagle has been selected as one of the best sites on the Web by Lycos TOP 5%. Lycos TOP 5% is the oldest and most prestigious Website directory. Since 1994, their expert reviewers have scoured the Internet to select only the finest sites. Each site in TOP 5% includes a detailed review describing its editorial and visual merits. Gold-Eagle has earned a place in the pantheon of site excellence! TOP 5% was named the #1 Website review service by Internet World Magazine, and it finds Gold-Eagle to be worthy of this exclusive rating. Kitcoites and others who have enjoyed the FREE benefits of unique articles and massive financial coverage that Gold-Eagle provides should be proud for this wonderful site. It's a great acknowledgement of goldbugs and controversial financial thinkers everywhere. Congratulations to Vronsky and Westerman for their superb efforts. And my personal thanks from a resident Kitco "Flake" for their welcome to the Astrological Investor, and many other pithy and pointed points of view!

Evening Donald!....there's definently a hint of fall in the air here too! just finished watchin NYC news and it sounded like your temp's are headed down late Sunday....Blackberries ( my favorite berry ) are in vogue on our property @ the moment....

Argentina: Rising red ink blots expectations

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 19 1997

By Ken Warn

This year has been a year of rising expectations - and rising red ink - for
Argentina. Most analysts have been steadily lifting their forecasts for
economic growth, with 8 per cent for the year widely seen as achievable,
while trade has fallen sharply into deficit.

In August the government raised its forecast for industrial production growth
to 8 per cent, which would make 1997 the best year for industrial
performance in the country's history. The advance was apparent across most
of the economy, with some sectors showing spectacular gains.

Vehicle production was up almost more than 37 per cent in the first eight
months of this year, against the same period of 1996. Cement deliveries were
up almost 34 per cent in the same period.

The rebound underlined the resilience of the economy after the reforms of
President Carlos Menem's government. The economic model was again
delivering growth after withstanding the trials of the "Tequila effect", the
regional financial instability unleashed by Mexico's surprise devaluation in
December 1994. Last year the economy grew 4.3 per cent, after falling 4.6
per cent in 1995.

Consumer spending has recovered only gradually from the 1995 recession,
leaving investment as the main locomotive of growth and inflation firmly under
control. Foreign direct investment is expected to total $6bn-$6.5bn this year
according to private forecasts.

"I am very optimistic on the second half," said Mr Walter Molano, director of
economic and financial research at SBC Warburg in New York. "The country
is clearly seeing the pay-off from the reforms undertaken in 1991-95, some of
which have a long gestation period." Growth next year should have a floor of
6 per cent, he added.

However, faster growth has produced an adverse turnaround in the trade
figures, with a $1.9bn deficit for the first seven months of this year compared
with a $567m surplus in the same period last year.

The government has raised its trade deficit forecast this year to $2.6bn-$3bn,
about twice its original forecast. ING Barings in Buenos Aires estimate the
deficit at $3bn giving a current account deficit for the year of $8.8bn,
equivalent to 2.7 per cent of GDP. The current account deficit for next year
could hit 3.6 per cent of GDP, the same level as in 1994 before the Tequila
effect, ING Barings warned. However, much of the rise in imports is
accounted for by increased imports of capital goods, which "are laying the
foundations for efficient production in the future", says Freddy Thomsen, chief
economist at ING Barings.

On the fiscal side, disappointing tax revenues mean Argentina will be hard
pressed to keep its fiscal deficit for the year down to the $4.5bn target agreed
with the International Monetary Fund. The broadly defined deficit for the first
seven months of the year stood at $2.61bn.

The mid-year devaluations in south-east Asia had put Argentina's fiscal and
current account deficits more firmly in the spotlight, analysts said. "The current
account is deteriorating while the fiscal deficit is not getting any better, so
people are looking at those two numbers more closely," said Mr Thomsen.

In common with the rest of Latin America, Argentina experienced market
nervousness amid fears of the Asian crisis spreading to other emerging
economies. The government was forced to delay the issue of a $750m
seven-year global bond in July as spreads widened over US Treasuries.
Fortunately Argentina was well advanced with its international borrowing
programme for the year. In September it launched a buy-back of its old-style
restructured debt via a 30-year global dollar bond issue.

The banking system has been strengthening its defences against external
shocks. The Central Bank is expanding its $6bn-plus secured line of credit
with international banks. A wave of foreign investment left five of the six
biggest private sector banks in foreign ownership, making the system less
vulnerable.

Higher growth has failed to translate into a significant fall in the unemployment
rate, despite signs that job creation is rising. In May the six-monthly
unemployment figures showed a 1.3 percentage point fall to 16.1 per cent,
down from a peak of more than 18 per cent.

The high level of joblessness was one factor behind an increase in social
tensions during the year.

The centrist Radical party and the centre-left Frepaso formed an alliance
ahead of October's mid-term elections, aiming to capitalise on discontent over
high unemployment, a growing sense of social inequality and the failings of the
justice system. But the alliance embraced much of Mr Menem's economic
agenda.

Investors appeared to shrug off the increased social and political tensions. But
it was clear that the proximity of the elections was constraining the
government's room for manoeuvre. Modest labour reforms agreed between
Mr Menem and the unions in May appeared to have become bogged down in
Congress ahead of the polls.

Argentina was running the risk of becoming complacent on the need for
further economic reform, said Mr Molano. "The government has to continue
with reform, it cannot just carry on on automatic pilot."

Donald: Glad to hear it is cooling off up in Conn. Here in No. Va today it was midsummer heat/humidity no sign of Fall here. They shoulda kept the pools open but it is against Fairfax County Regs. Sunny and hot and humid is our forecast I hear from co workers. Go O's!!!

MIKE SHELLER: If some of our posters had not been so pompous we would have done better than only the top 5%.

Giants smack a dinger in bottom of 12th to win... doh!

Series tied, nine games left...gotta love it!

away...to cry in my beer
EB$

Donald: Glad to hear it is cooling off up in Conn. Here in No. Va today it was midsummer heat/humidity no sign of Fall here. They shoulda kept the pools open but it is against Fairfax County Regs. Sunny and hot and humid is our forecast I hear from co workers. Go O's!!!

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

As of this morning, 100% Long ( mostly FSAGX ) .
FSAGX outperformed all sectors today with 1.8% Gain.

TW: It is 67 right now, today was pleasantly warm and a bit humid, with bright sun late in the day. I take a 5 mile bicycle ride almost every day. The best part is that the tourists are gone and the whole 5 miles seems like private property. The fall sign was the birds heading south. They are just so beautiful, filling the sky with a perfect formation. You can watch them here over a 30 mile stretch by just twisting your neck and staying at the same spot. Over that stretch the lead bird will change several times. They seem to have it all figured out in advance. There has to be some signal between them but it is not apparent from the ground. It sure takes your mind off the troubles of the day just watching them and wondering how they do it.

Since talk's turned to g-stox,I've got tooffer this to you K-ites; ELD.TO,and MAE.TO. These two juniors ( although eld is really a mid-sized producer as of mid 98 ) , are both under"NAV". MAE @ 5.00 Canadian was less, ( on one day in July ) ,than cash in the bank and their share value of
Northern Orion, a wholely owned subsidiary. Today MAE went back and almost touched their old low: this company has lots of cash and current production is cost sensitive. ELD has more going for it than I've ooom to post including an estimated 98 production of 200k oz. or more. Other positions of mine are GIT.AL ( gitannes ) , SJD.V, ( St. Jude ) ,KNVCF, ( Consolidated Nevada Goldfields Corp. ) ,CTQ. ( Coriente Resources ) , and a few others. I welcome other owners comments as well as any inquires I can awnser with honesty. Orion

The Malaysian ringgit continued to decline yesterday, breaking
the 3.00 mark against the greenback to close Asian trading at
the session's low of 3.0240.
Traders told BT that two American
investment banks operating out of
Hongkong were widely rumoured to
be behind the continued selling
pressure on the ringgit, which has
fallen 10 sen since last Wednesday's
2.9225 high.
http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/pages/nseas01.html

...it'll get worse before it gets better....
TOP credit rating agency Standard and Poor's downgraded
Thailand's biggest commercial bank and six other institutions
yesterday in another blow to the country's beleaguered
financial sector.

The move by the New York-based agency came as Bangkok
accepted the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) 's word that the
crisis-ridden Thai economy was in a virtual recession and vowed to
nurse it back to health in three years.

"It should not get lower than this. I hope we have bottomed out," a
government official said of the latest bout of bad news.
http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/pages/nseas05.html

Donald: The birds fly in formation because flying in each other's slip stream increases their mileage/Kcal energy consumption. The lead bird of course has to break trail, so to speak. They often change off when the the lead bird grows tired. This year, due to the ending of the drought in the prairie pothole country of the middle west, we are expecting a bumper crop of 92 million waterfowl to migrate south. They are a beautiful sight. We expect the skys to darken when they pass by down here in Louisiana.

LIGHTNING never strikes twice but loan defaults are another thing. They could hit a
bank not only twice but even thrice.

This seems to be unfortunate fate of five banks that lent to all three companies that
defaulted on their loan payments so far this year: Victorias Milling Co., its trading
affiliate, North Negros Marketing Co. and the EYCO group of companies.

The five banks--AsiaTrust Bank, Land Bank of the Philippines, Metropolitan Bank and
Trust Co., Philippine Commercial International Bank and the Philippine National
Bank--seem to be victims of the saying that a string of bad luck come in beads of
three.
http://www.portalinc.com/manilatimes/business3.html

Byron -- I have tick data on NGC. If you want data on NEM, you'll have to wait a few days for a good chart. State your preferences before tomorrow. :- ) )

LGB--

SSC has been in a slow decline since 1980! Granted, well timed [read lucky] trades may have worked in the past, but this stock is fundamentally unhealthy with too much debt, too many outstanding shares, and below average management.

On the other hand, Hecla Mining may not get the attention but is a much better silver producer with excellent management and a diversified production base as hedge. Their Coeur d'Alene silver reserves have historically produced some of the lowest costs ounces for 100 years. As you may know, HL is also a component of the XAU. There is much less inherent risk in this company.

One other thing, thanks for your contrary opinions.

......SOS...IMF please send more.....
The military has made clear it wants Virabongsa Ramangkura to
have freedom to manage economic affairs and that political
interference will hamper rescue efforts.

In a vote of confidence for Mr Virabongsa, commanders of the
armed forces said they retained complete faith in the man they
had recommended to the prime minister to lead the country out
of crisis.
http://www.bangkokpost.net/today/1809_news01.html

Donald, I'm so happy your happy.I was begining to think I was the only careless, unguarded person here ( what a relief! ) .South Texas sees a tremendous sum of geese'n sandhills. When you see them change leads, they are ( the strongest of the flock ) takeing turns "drafting" one another; a little resting trick. Do you ever listen to public radio? Here in Tejas we get KPFC, "pacifica". I call it the best commie pinko fagot leftwing radio station in Texas, ( I'm a member ) . You need a pair of binoculars just to find these people ther so far left! Soooookay.., with out a left the right is just the center; not a happy thought. Anyway they have your ex-gov., Jerry Brown on as a regular ( assuming your from CA. ) ,sometimes I'm amazed at his guests; really interesting, and thanks for the BIS definition; now I need to know how they fit in with the IMF in terms of power and influence ( I'm learning ) !

A public retraction, this. Have discovered that the equation LGB=HepCat is in error. Empirical evidence demonstrates the rest of the formula is still true and valid. As far as I can tell this erroneous equation changes not a thing. Please do not read this as an apology. None is deserved, and none is offered.

ftp://explorer.arc.nasa.gov/pub/Weather/GOES-8/jpg/vis/4km/9709182344.jpg
RJ..just in time here's a real nice satellite of Linda and Nora..seems like it's gonna be real nasty by Saturday..might just cruise right up America's back passage ( the gulf of california ) and give things a reall good cleaning out.

Kiwi - The sister should stop short of US. But it may cause havoc in baja, but on the Pacific Side. Good surf in Baja! Shaka Bra!

Let's see...this should not effect Silver prices...

But it will effect 'the Wedge'...

away
EB$

Glenn:

The only feature of the macro-economic environment that I believe is relavent to silver is the amount of money floating around the world. All the other relationships, ( GC / SI, GC / CL, long bond yield etc ) are pretty meaningless in the curreny context. Silver, as you are well aware, is the most manipulated of the precious markets. As the above ground stocks are depleted, the ability of the manipulators to manipulate becomes that much stronger.

The 200 Moving Average in silver is around 491 basis Dec. I assume the reason that you look at this number is because it is fairly common knowledge that some of the larger technical trend followers seem to be influenced by this. This knowledge is probably driving the speculators now who are trying to squeeze the market. They probably feel if they can get the Dec out over 491 that they will have no trouble selling their load out to the funds. They are probably correct.

The real interesting part of the game comes after this. If it is just a J. Aaron playing a small game, looking to dump after 50 or 60 cents then we might have both a spike up followed by a spike down. If however it is one of the more serious predators, things could get very interesting. The period in time which is perhaps most analogous to now would be late 1987. As I recall, silver went from $5 - $11 in a heartbeat. Because silver is silver, the public can join in the fun. If you think that they have bid up equities to absurd levels, imagine what they could do to an 'alternative investment'.

Today's large volume in SSC could be indicative of a more serious player. A 50 cent spike in silver might get SSC up to 1.25 or so but its not going to really light any fires. In order to make it worth someones while to collect a lot of shares of SSC, silver has got to make a serious move.

I really don't have a good handle on how many deep out of the money calls are out there in silver. It would probably behoove you to take a look at the current open interest. A good exercise would be to figure out the composite delta on the call side and figure out how much hedging is going to occur at what levels. Come to think of it, I'll probably do this myself. There is unfortunately no way of knowing what kind of OTC calls exist so the Comex stuff will only tell part of the story.

With silver now in backwardation, ( Dec efp is now 1-2 under ) , anyone thinking of investing in this market is having their lives made much easier. It is also getting expensive to be short.

I don't claim a particular inside knowledge in this or any other market. I just see the same set of facts that everyone else does, and try to make some sense of it. I don't know if your $7 calls are in danger but I will say that I don't think that the risk reward is very good at all. To make any sort of meaningful money in these things on the short side you would have to sell an awful lot of them. This would open one up to a disaster. If I were to engage in a way out of the money option writing strategy, I would do it on a broad basis with a small amount in many markets. If I was doing it in commodities, I would only do it on the put side.

All of the money we have made over the years in commodities has been on the long side. Most of the money comes from gigantic winning trades where there are massive short sqeezes for one reason or another. It is just the nature of commodity markets. I strongly believe that the market does not price the potential explosive up moves in commodities properly. Because of this, I would never sell calls, especially deep out of the moneys.

BTW, it seems like the Comex stocks dropped another 5MM ounces today.

IDT, BADGER: For many years I commuted weekends CT to DC. ( Badger, I am in CT, not CA ) and they were on my route along the way. I recall once going over the Delaware River bridge between NJ and DE seeing them fly by right at deck level and at road speed. The head goose turned his neck and looked me right in the eye! No kidding. All along the Eastern Shore of MD there are cornfields where they camp for the night, thousands at a time. Really something.

EB$:The best team won today!

You put me in mind of such way-stops, including Havre De Grace, between Aberdeen Proving Grounds and New York. A stateside Flashback for me.

.. Righteous Anger ..


LGB wrote:

"WE have RJ, hat in hand, begging for business here every week or so in gross violation of the rules ( and in direct competition with the site host ) "

If you had any idea of the kind of business I do you would realize how foolish you sound. I have a $5,000,000 + book of more than 60 clients, I make my money on trading. If someone calls me for a purchase of coins, I make zero $. Pardon me for letting this site know about the Mounty, I just had some info nobody else here seemed to have, and I shared it. If I were to be paid for the time I spend to post here, it would amount to thousands every month, yet I too am here in the spirit of sharing information. Its a shame you have yet to post one single piece of information that isn't available from a dozen different sources. You jump up and down and congratulate your self on the $ you make in stocks, which I suspect is vastly overstated. Wake up pal! This is the strongest and longest bull market in history. A chimpanzee could crap on the WSJ, invest in the companies on which it fell, and make 30% a year. Millions are making money hand over fist, and you want to be congratulated on your acumen? I have said before, your investment info is pedestrian at best. You post long articles from other sources and this is supposed to impress? That same chimpanzee could also learn to cut and paste, so save your BS, LGB., you are punk and shall forever deserve the slight regard you receive. You aren't even very clever. This is that last time I will ever respond or refer to your posts, regardless of the provocation. You sicken me.

Sunshine says Argentina mine proves feasible

August 26, 1997

Sunshine Mining ( NYSE:SSC ) of Boise announced yesterday the
pre-feasibility analysis of its Pirquitas Mine in northwest Argentina indicates
66.9 million ounces of proven and probable silver reserves along with 39
thousand tons of tin, making development of the project economically feasible.

The company expects to add even more reserves with additional drilling in the
near future. Sunshine said it now plans to look for ways to finance the mines
development, which might require up to US$ 100 million.

In late trading today, Sunshine stock stood unchanged at 3/4 on light volume.
In the past year, the stock has been as high as 1 1/2 and as low as 5/8.

Yes, it does look like Nora is a Linda clone. By Tuesday it will be in the exact spot that Linda Finally turned. We live in interesting times. EB Wedgie Boy will love it, got his board waxed up and the Foster's in the fridge.

@ anyone: Anyone have the stock scores for Japan and Malaysia?? My ISP seems to be on the blink....again!....can only access about 10% of the sites........will they ever get it right?????...how bout a Dec. gold quote...while yer @ it....Thankx ( hopefully ) in advance....

MIKE SHELLER: I know those places well. I did the trip so many times I finally figured out a no tolls, no hassle route southbound through Central NJ, Trenton, Red Lion, DE, Chesapeake City, MD, Galena, MD, Queenstown, MD to DC. Glad I don't have to do it any more.

The word in the silver pits today was all warehouse stocks. There is a palpable nervousness and unwillingness to get short even though the charts say silver down. If one of the funds makes a play on COMEX stocks - now down to 102 million oz excluding Wilmington Bank and Trust - we'll all wake one day to find silver 50 cents up. It was strong today: up 11 while the DOW was up 170 points - that's like silver being up 30 to 40 cents on a quiet day.

Another interesting explanation is that these stocks are taxed quarterly. Silver has a way of disappearing for a time before finding its way back after tax time. I'll look into this and see if the numbers back it up. For now, I will not short silver. The worst that can happen is I miss a good chance for some quick profits, but the risk is not worth it.

SIG: Although it is true that SSC has too many issued shares, and its LT debt of 31M is significant in view of present cash flow. But the relatively new management has put in a plan in action to increase production at the SS mine and it is expected that there will be positive cash flow this quarter as a result, which will be a milestone for the company. This, in addition to the new Argentina finds, appear to be driving the stock. As far as the quality of the new management, I have not found it to be lacking and I would appreciate any insight you may have for your apparent low view of management

What's the $ for????? Looks like an earing! Very fashionable.........

Rich people are, politically speaking, an easy target. After all, there are much fewer of them than members of the middle class. The rich are, more often than not, envied by the not-so-rich. So laws that attack wealthy individuals are much easier to pass than laws that affect the more numerous middle class.

But it's a funny thing the way laws designed only to affect the upper crust of society end up coming back to haunt us all.

The U.S. federal income tax was first passed as a law that affected only those with extraordinarily high incomes at the time -- and even for those lucky few the rate was very low. Now of course, income tax affects almost everyone, and has a devastating effect on the lifestyles of the middle class.

You may recall several years ago when the Alternative Minimum Tax ( AMT ) was passed. This was a response to the vocal and often paranoid cries about the very rich avoiding income taxes through shelters, credits and other tax-avoidance schemes. In order to satisfy the political demand, Congress made AMT part of the tax code. But it would just affect the very rich.

Lo and behold here we are in 1997 and Congress has just passed another tax "reform" bill, the cruelly-named Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997. What you may actually be about to get relieved of is your money and deductions, as AMT starts to hit the middle class.

How can a law like AMT that's crafted for the rich come to affect so many? Simple -- it was never indexed for inflation. Although only 414,000 taxpayers paid the AMT in 1995 that number is quickly rising and by the year 2005 a family of four with an income of $58,300 in 1996 dollars could be subject to AMT. However, even that calculation assumes an inflation rate of only 3%. If the inflation rate rises many more taxpayers would be pushed into AMT much sooner.

If you are subject to AMT, you lose your property tax deductions as well as the just-enacted child and tuition tax credits. More importantly, you lose your deductions for state and local income taxes. Lacking those
deductions, the same dollar of income could be taxed three different times -- at the state, local, and federal levels. Let us know if there's anything left.

Even if you don't end up owing the AMT, you may very well be required to submit the very complex calculations, adding quite a few more dollars to your tax preparation bill.

Analysts say that lawmakers and their staffs were well aware of the creeping effects of AMT but purposely ignored it because the media and taxpayer groups did not focus on it.

Time to focus....

Read more about today's Outrage in the Money Magazine Story.

http://www.pathfinder.com/@@uYb9swQAjxCmNhW*/money/moneydaily/1997/970826.moneyonline.html>http://www.pathfinder.com/@@uYb9swQAjxCmNhW*/money/moneydaily/1997/970826.moneyonline.html


If you have difficulty accessing this story, please follow it from
http://www.dailyoutrage.com

************************
Quote of the Day

The art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the
largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of
hissing.

-- Jean Baptiste Colbert, 1665.

TED: ABN has spot gold at 320.90, I don't know where to look for December. Japan is +60 ( .34% ) Malaysia shows 0.0 but +.02% Yahoo has been very slow all day, lots of dead time too.

DAILY OUTRAGE: Shouldn't we be goosing the pluckers?

Y2K news.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/97/09/17/y0004_y00_2.html

Would you rather be a Russian miner who has not been paid in 9 months or an Albanian miner?
Click URL for the answer.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/16/y0023_z00_10.html

With Churchillian clarity & logic Guest Guru Milhouse analyzes Alan Greenspans "secret weapon to ensure economy doesnt dive. M-3 accelerated growth is keystone to higher GOLD prices:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse831.html

Skylark--

I have no particular insight into Sunshine management except to say that new or old, the track record of the company has not been as good as other miners in the area. Perhaps this management team will have a positive impact on the direction of the company. And after all, Argentina sure sounds like a place to look for silver! But generally speaking, mining companies with similar histories seem to continue to be mediocre. The investing public will get the "insight" to judge the risk by closely following the exploration results coupled with continuous improvements at SS mine. It will be interesting to see if management is of high enough caliber to round up $100 million for the Argentina project without issuing more shares. Time will tell.

DAILY OUTRAGE: Ur 22:16 is great re the tax steamroller. Why hasn't the media pointed all this out? Hell, the Liberal Media loves taxes. Punish those that worked their buns off 45 years, saved and invested, and hoped they could survive in retirement. And make damn sure they have nothing left to give to their kids. Why? We want everyone equal! Then everyone will be happy. Well, I for one don't believe, it but a lot do. Right WW? Who cares? et al?

Took a look at the British Pound today and compared it with silver, looks like a Rorschach. Definite correlation.

TED -- Tokyo +92 Hang Seng +129 Singapore -1.4 Dec Gold 323.1 @ 22:38

Good night all.

RJ -- What format is the chart in?

Back just long enough to try your patience with one of the long posts which irk me when others do it. It says things I would like to say in a way I could never say it. I guess that's why Don Feder is a syndicated columnist and I'm a lowly sometimes Kitco poster.WHAT LIBERALS MEAN WHEN THEY SAY "BIGOT"
by Don Feder

SEPTEMBER 16, 1997

Welcome to "The Psychology of Liberalism 101." Today's lecture: Why
liberals are addicted to ad hominems, and what they mean by "bigot."
This is inspired by a recent communication from a reader. After
complimenting my mother ( I did a column on her 85th birthday ) , he
wonders how -- with such a wonderful mom -- I turned out to be "so
narrow-minded and bigoted."

Aside, why are liberals prone to insult-overkill to the point of
redundancy? I'm not just "bigoted," but "narrow-minded" too. Thus, I
may be distinguished from all of the tolerant, progressive and
cosmopolitan bigots. This correspondent was put to shame by one Jane
Grey, who did not provide a return address, probably for fear that I
would show up with my hooded friends one evening and burn a Star of
David on her lawn.

Does the "mean-spirited, pompous trash" I write "bolster" my
"deplorable sense of self-esteem?" Lady Jane inquired. The letter was
larded with references to my "rantings," "kindergarten mentality,"
"preachy morality," "puritanical ravings, "bad-tempered reviling" and
"small-minded bitchiness." Like her namesake, Jane has lost her head
-- but hardly notices its absence. Liberals are frequently reduced to
sputtering impotence. Their choleric rage is the product of arrogance
( the conviction that opposing viewpoints are either evil, idiotic or
a combination thereof ) compounded by subconscious inferiority.

Having for so long dominated the political debate, they are
unaccustomed to dealing with ideas, constructing arguments and
presenting evidence. Those who can't contend ultimately fulminate
"Bigot" is their favorite invective, along with its variations:
"hateful," "intolerant," "prejudiced" and "mean-spirited."

Their point is that conservatives -- really, anyone who refuses to
prostrate himself before their idols -- are a medley of David Duke,
Cincinnati Reds owner Marge Schott, the late George Lincoln Rockwell
and the early George Corley Wallace.

Since liberals refuse to define their terms, here's a handy guide to
what they mean by "bigot."

A bigot is a white person ( by definition, non-whites can never be
bigots, regardless of how much they hate ) who isn't eager to confess
his culpability for something others of his pigmentation did 50 or 150
years ago.

A bigot refuses to recognize the inherent justice of stealing a job or
educational opportunity from one who deserves it ( on the basis of
merit ) and presenting it another, due solely to race or gender. A
bigot is a man, or a woman, who clings to the sexist delusion that
biology impacts on behavior and has the nagging suspicion that the
female of the species ( whose nature inclines her to nuture ) may not
be as effective in combat as the more aggressive -- not to mention
larger and stronger -- male.

A bigot is someone who believes the culture that produced
Michelangelo, Mozart, Shakespeare and Edison is superior to those
whose idea of a good time is female genital mutilation, tribal
genocide and pleading for alms.

A bigot wonders why X should arise at 6 a.m. and work 10-hour days to
support Y and her brood, when Y's exclusive occupation is the
production of fatherless children who will grow up to mug him. A bigot
asks why America must accept a majority of the world's immigrants
( including millions who break our laws each year to come here ) , when we
currently have no shortage of poverty, disease, illiteracy and racial
tension.

A bigot refuses to put a lifestyle whose chief contribution to
civilization is the spread of venereal disease on par with
heterosexual monogamy, which assures both the continuity of the human
race and the socialization of succeeding generations.

In short, a bigot is one who clings to sinister superstition
( religion ) , vile chauvinism ( love of country ) , outmoded patriarchy
( the family ) and judgmental ethics ( an objective moral code ) .

Pity, we can't all be as tolerant as the left. Hollywood's treatment
of the Catholic Church and evangelicals, and the educational
establishment's regard for the traditional family are among the many
manifestations of liberal benevolence. This curious and dwindling
breed lacks the remotest self-awareness. A lawyer friend told me that
when she mentioned one of my columns to a colleague, he responded,
"That Don Feder, he's so intolerant I could just kill him." So, when
they call you a bigot, consider the source and wear it as a badge of
honor.

COPYRIGHT 1997 BOSTON HERALD

Still new at this posting graphics stuff. The last was a bmp. I'll try a jpg.

Thankx!

RON@SAC: Here is an interesting site on libel on the net- http://www.xandos.com/html/libel.html

LET'S GO RENT-SEEKING

If you want to understand government in the late
20th century, you had better know something
about Gordon Tullock's concept of rent-seeking.
It enables you to see Washington for what it really
is: a powerful machine that enables special
interests to extract money from everyone else.

http://forbes.com/

Hello RJ:

If the comex silver is taxed, why doesn't the comex move the warehouse to a location where there aren't the taxes?