Good night ALL......

OUT OF SIGHT STOCKS

Fact: An astonishing number of big-capitalization
stocks are currently trading at valuations greater
than two times their five-year expected growth
rates. To get an idea of just how out of line these
prices are, consider this: Now, with the market
near an alltime high, the S&P 500's price/earnings
multiple is a little over 1.4 times the index's
five-year earnings growth estimates. In short,
these favored stocks command prices as much as
three times higher than the rule of thumb suggests
they should.
http://forbes.com/

I don't know.

Thai PM vows sustained reforms after IMF meeting

BANGKOK, Sept 19 ( Reuter ) - Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh on Friday pledged to undertake sustained economic and financial reforms to rehabilitate Thailand's battered economy.

He made the pledge at a meeting with International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) Managing Director Michel Camdessus, Bank of Thailand governor Chaiyawat Wibulsawasdi told reporters after the meeting. Camdessus was satisfied with Thai economic reforms so far, he added.

INVESTMENT COLUMNIST: WALLSTREET IRREGULARS
By Mark Hulbert

THE END IS NEAR, but not
yet here. That's the consensus
from the top-performing stock market timers.
Each of them believes that the bull market has
entered into a significant multimonth topping
process. But they also believe there is no need to
dump your equity positions immediately.

GLENN: The key factor that will touch off the next gold bull is a loss of confidence in the dollar. Higher commodity prices will help, but a major gold bull is out of the question until the dollar tanks or the smart money concludes that it will soon hit the skids on a sustained basis.

This newsrelease may be the basis for Viceroy Resource move up of $0.20 Canadian for today.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/97/09/18/voy_y0023_1.html

Article by Mark Hulbert also in this weeks issue of Forbes.
http://forbes.com

Friday, September 19, 1997

Investment committee dilutes key broker recommendation

By DAN WESTELL
The Financial Post
The investment industry committee looking at stockbrokers' conflicts of interest in junior company financings has stuck to its preliminary proposals in its final report released yesterday.

"There are no substantive changes," said John Hagg, chairman of the 12-member committee and chief executive of Northstar Energy Corp. of Calgary.

The committee, however, has watered down a key recommendation.

The committee was appointed after last year's stock market scandals at Timbuktu Gold Corp. ( renamed Marchmont Gold Corp. this summer ) and Cartaway Resources Corp. Brokers may have made fortunes on the two by buying private placement stock for pennies, then promoting the stock and selling out to clients as the price hit highs of $30 in Timbuktu's case, $26 in Cartaway's.

Prices for the two junior mining stocks are back where they started. Cartaway ( CWA/ASE ) yesterday closed off 5 at 25. Marchmont ( MHM/ASE ) last traded Wednesday at 30.

Forced by securities regulators to address the concerns raised by the promotions, the industry lobbies and self-regulators  the Investment Dealers Association and four stock exchanges  set up a committee that excluded investors and held secret hearings. The group is now proposing rule changes based on 19 submissions which, with two exceptions, have not been made public.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/FP/sep19_investment.html

G7 to meet in Hong Kong on Sept 20 from 0630 GMT

BANGKOK, Sept 19 ( Reuter ) - Finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven ( G7 ) industrialised countries will meet in Hong Kong on September 20 from 1430 local time ( 0630 GMT ) , a Japanese finance ministry official said on Friday,

G7 groups Britain, Canada, France, Italy, Germany, Japan and the United States.

Japan's finance minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka will chair the meeting, the official said.

Goldbug23: Thank you for the libel url. Makes me want to clam up permanently and lurk in sack-o-tomatoes. Hey, I wonder if goldbugs have a case against all the turkeys out there dissin' gold? :- )

oldman: Thanks for your last post. I wonder how the author survives in a town like Boston!?!? And welcome back to you! For cryin' out loud, whatever you do, don't let the cretins drive you off.

Kiwi: Don't know if you got an answer to your gold ball question, but I get a diameter of 0.572 inches. Sorry it took so long, but I just now stumbled on Bart's melting-point and specific-gravity page for the various metals.

September 18, 1997

Bloc protests as high court starts wheels turning on constitutional case

OTTAWA ( CP ) - The Supreme Court of Canada has delayed hearings on Quebec's right to separate, and sent a message to Prime Minister Jean
Chretien to move quickly to bring the court up to full strength for the
historic case.

Thursday's hearing took place against an unusual backdrop where Canada's political world collided with the country's top court.
The separatist Bloc Quebecois caucus marched on the court to protest the
hearing. And Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe openly suggested any Supreme
Court justices hearing the case - especially those from Quebec - would be
"accomplices""in a federal effort to deny Quebecers their democratic rights.

The Bloc, like the Parti Quebecois government in Quebec City, maintains
the final say on sovereignty must come from the Quebec people by
referendum, not from any court.

The federal government has asked the court to rule on three issues:
- Can Quebec unilaterally declare independence under domestic law?
- Does international law give the province a right to secede?
- If domestic and international law conflict, which takes precedence?

The case is part of Chretien's so-called Plan B strategy, aimed at
persuading Quebecers that sovereignty would not be as quick or painless
as Bouchard contends.
http://www.canoe.ca/NationalTicker/CANOE-wire.SCOC-Unity.html

RJ: What do you think the correlation might be, re: silver/British Pound?

I have enjoyed reading the Kitco comments for about a year ,but this is the first time I have responded. I would like to know if anyone has a comment about El Misti Gold. I have some and right now I'm not a happy camper.

Can large US companies continue double digit earnings?
http://www.businessweek.com/1997/39/b3546060.htm

Oldman: Many thanks for the Feder article. Well done and a helluva read. As I posted yday, the mindless brutes are beginning to feel the sting of enlightened response. It's a battle worth waging. Stick around and hammer a few nails in their bankrupt coffin. Pop a copy of Bach's Third Brandenburg in the CD, grab yer keyboard and go to war. Consider it sport with a definite Olympic quality to it.

Silver has confounded me and lost me money. Things point to the Bull but it continues to fall on any good rally. How long can gold drag it down? Why does this happen? Silver should be trading like Platinum, No? That is why I am sidelined on silver...and I'll probably miss any explosive moves...oh well. I will not miss Platinum though and i think the moves will be much better anyway... there, I guess I just made myself feel better. Thanks all!

Chart-Boy - What IS the correlation with BP & SI?? Pray tell :-$ I am long lb now and it still has some good play. You are still sidelined silver also? I guess I'll know what to do in hindsight...
The $ is not an earing but IS an accessory...like it for now...

Yen - Does anyone see the patterns forming here?? It is either a BIG-BULL-FLAG or a BIG-DECLINING-WEDGE. I am serious. It looks big and I think we will explode Very sooooon. It is moving to some STRONG support. Remember early MAY?? I am STILL spending the profits. MikeS, you have been making some good calls lately, congrats. What are you're thoughts? Panda? Eldo? Chartsters?? Charts don't lie...eventually ;-$ )

away...
EB$

Donald - 3 major CBs running things? That's bad medicine, worse
than I thought. That's the equivalent of Ford, GM and Chrysler,
that is a SERIOUS oligopoly.

They won't let the market crash. It will take an overwhelming
force to break them up, convince one of the CBs to break the rules.

Interesting thoughts tonight -

1 ) Trade deficit up strongly, but Federal Deficit down strongly.
Very interesting to me because I believe ( believed? ) that one
was driving the other. Are the Deficit numbers being faked now?

That's what *I* would do, if I wanted to push bonds. And drive
down interest rates. I think I'd also fudge the housing start
numbers downward. : )

2 ) I'm pretty darn sure that part of what we're seeing is some
unexpected effects as the gusher of Federal Reserve money
flows into bonds and drives down interest rates. It's almost
like a self-stabilizing effect. Feds pump out tons of money,
part of it flows into bonds, rates go down from massive
buying, rather than up on inflation fears.

I could easily see it all counterbalancing out. Feds pump
out HUGE sums of money, driving down rates, allowing
refinancing of debtors, which frees enough money to keep
consumer spending going, keeps NYSE going up, too. Creepy.

I'd kind of played around with the preceding idea a few months
ago, but I couldn't really see how it could work. Now I'm
really wondering. I don't underestimate the Masters of the
System for one second.

Re your post sept 18 21:38 "Righteous Anger"


BRAVO! Although, I suspect the chimpanzee would outperform
the l-ass.

The more I study this Yen thing the better it looks. A 50% correction ( short term ) is at .8763 ( resistance ) . It can move there in a heart beat. One of these politico Yahoos will say something and someone will start complaining AGAIN about trade deficits and...BAM! a quick 6g's or so per contract. Yum, Yum! Where is Mr. Yen when ya' need him.

AWAY..to lick my chops...
EB

D.A. - comments on Yen?

is working on a KEY-Reversal RIGHT NOW! maybe ;- )

away...to buy with gusto!

EB$

o.k., Sorry LGB no more Yen talk from me... I mean what's it got to do with driving down highway ONE and enjoying life??

RJ.. DA.. Glenn..
The historical relationships that I see with silver generally tell me that silver makes occasional jumps up with little regard for the other metals. However, the move must be confirmed by gold, etc to be long lived. In most cases, it appears to be only caused by traders all in concert. I don't know if this is the case or not, but it appears sometimes to be.

This latest move seems to be different, although I can't prove it. The general opinion is that gold has a glass ceiling somewhere around 330 due to CB's, etc. Silver may be exhibiting characteristics of a relief valve on a steam kettle and may be trying to make its own move with gold being held back. .... However, if silver is successful with a move to 5.00, assuming that the CB's cannot control silver, I feel that the surge will also affect gold since PA and PL have already moved substantially up from their yearly lows. Only gold will be left at the bottom. I don't think even the banks will want to fight the new current, which will be up.

However, I don't think gold is going anywhere as long as the 30 yr bond rate is down at 6.4% and decreasing. In that regard, today's trade deficit news may have been the news to reverse the rate to the upside.

Hey old man, enjoyed your visit. We must do this more often.
Your article was so great that I have copied it and am posting it to
many friends, who regretfully, consider themselves liberals, until of course some facts confront them. THANKS.

Glenn- completely in tune with your thinking that gold will move with other commodities, and currencies, other than the dollar.

With due respect to all those that see the golds going to new lows etc.
My reading of the charts at this time says exactly the opposite. In fact I believe we may have already seen the beginning of our future young BULL, and that's no bull. I study my charts and put a lot of time into reading you many postings, and my conclusions are we've turned.

As for the markets - maybe they'll make new highs, but I think if they don't do it soon it "COITENS".

RJ: A fascinating picture of our newly forming NORA - HTTP://WXP.ATMS.PURDUE.EDU/hurricane/sat_ir_p.gif

WHO CARES: A lot of the money that moved into bonds in recent days was from those who think stocks are vulnerable. They are just parking. Not everyone who buys a 30 year bond expects to hold it that long. They are big time dipsters, just waiting.

Hummmmmmmm - site appears that way on my Location but why the caps and consequent non reproduction a mystery. Used copy and paste too. Anyway the Purdeau weather site is superb and a search engine would get it. Right Mr. Puetz ( famous alumnus )

Asked about gold sales the Bank of Italy says "No Comment".
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/17/z0009_54.html

Asked about pending gold sales France and UK CB's also have "No Comment"
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/17/y0023_z00_56.html

South African gold miners sign labor pact that requires production of an additional 90 tons of gold.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/17/y0023_z00_37.html

Major Japanese retailer goes bankrupt with debt of 161 billion yen
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/18/y0029_z00_2.html

Vietnam dong faces devaluation. Can no longer compete with Thailand due to devaluation of the baht.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/18/z0009_64.html

Bank of China will maintain tight monetary policy and bring Chinese economy to a "soft landing".
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/18/z0009_77.html

On the downside index funds will "become the shredder of paper wealth".
http://www.usatoday.com:80/news/comment/colhenr.htm

Any comments on silvers quick rebound from 4.60?

Currency turmoil and urgency of holders of depreciating currencies offering opportunities for counterfeiters. ( Why don't they buy gold? )
http://www.rferl.org:80/nca/features/1997/09/F.RU.970918114749.html

China has 20% of the World's poverty. 270,000,000 people earn less that $1.00 per day.
http://www.rferl.org:80/nca/features/1997/09/F.RU.970918130929.html

Silver lease rates went up trmedously yesterday across all time spectrums. This is bullish. They are raiding silver too. It wants to go up but the pressure is on. Note 3 weeks to rise 25 cents/ Falls 16 cents in one day/ The raid. Yesterday's uncharacteristic rebound was IMHO due to lease rates. Last major rally from 5 to 5.8 in 1/96 was lease rate driven. Though that time it was more an issue with gold.

Re: CB sales I thought gold prices were discovered in the derivitive mkt. Arent CB sales irrelevant that really what is going on is the threat of sales followed by a derivitive raid. The "no comment" on sales by France, UK and Italy tells me the game is on. Ques is how long this dog will hunt. Further, if gold has lost its monetary importance why the preoccupation with it. Ans: even a scintilla of demand from the mass of paper created would send it skyward.

IMF head praises Chinese economic reforms.
http://www.rferl.org:80/nca/news/1997/09/N.RU.970918144740.html

DONALD: You give new meaning to the greeting "Ey, What's Happnin'?" EB$: I simply ADORE your new accessory. Very bold. Next time we're in Islip we can take the Ferry to Fire Island for a drink. As far as silver is concerned, my prime focus is on an upside breakout above roughly 4.85. That would take silver out of the downtrend contained by connecting the '83 and '87 peaks on the long-term chart. Silver is backing down from that overhead, but the way it is falling off sharply from a minor top tells me that this current weakness is a reaction, NOT the beginning of another leg down. MAJOR longterm support is still at around 4.09 - 4.10, and rising slowly as we go into '98 ( by a few pennies ) The XAU chart and HM's price chart LOOKS very much to me like an inverse H&S bottom is IN on these important gold share visuals. If I had a mutual fund to my head, I would say that an important rally is imminent ( But I've said THAT before ) . IMVHO

IMF says more Argentine loans likely to be approved.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/18/z0006_z00_1.html

RJ: What poignantly prophetic justice, the inversion pattern of silver, the original STERLING in Pound Sterling, from the empty paper husk that bears its name today.

Good Morning Mike. When the net is working well, as it is today, its not a problem. Yesterday it was so slow I couldn't get much news.

Russia: Gold miners still on strike. Yeltsin tells Russians "your savings are safe". Public workers still unpaid. etc.
http://nt.excite.com:80/reuters/970918/17.INTERNATIONAL-YELTSIN.html

Wall Street braces for Triple-Witching.
http://nt.excite.com/reuters/970919/05.BUSINESS-STOCKS.html

MF Warns Lenders Not to Expect Thai-Style Aid

The International Monetary Fund put private lenders on notice that they may have to share more of
the pain in future bailouts like those engineered by the IMF for Mexico and Thailand. ``The hazard
is that the private sector may be too willing to lend, because it knows that a country in trouble will
go to the fund rather than default,'' Stanley Fischer, the IMF's first deputy managing director, said in
a speech at the fund's annual meeting in Hong Kong.

Anyone know Jerry Favor's and Jon Kaplan's sights. Thanks.

Investors Intelligence
Current opinion: Our long-term market
indicator is bullish while our short-term ones
are negative and coming down from
overbought levels. We are starting to see
some indications that next year will not be a
good year for stocks. September downturns in
our NYSE bullish percentage have been
negative for stocks in the past and a large
amount of insider selling now is a very bad
sign for next year. Sentiment: Bulls 33.9%,
Bears 32.2%, Correction 33.9%. Readings
continue to be positive; last week's reading of
more bears than bulls often marks the end of
bull market corrections.

WW: Here is Steven Jon Kaplan. I don't have Jerry Favors.
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html

Here is Favors latest page:

http://www.marketweb.com/commentary/JF0917.HTM

Mach

Am in a thick fog....mornin ALL...Donald: You are on a roll this mornin!
Jimmy Rogers on Squawk box ( 8 EST,CNBC ) for more El Nino talk....

Whoa! It's Early! Gotta be the Limo driver this a.m. to the airport. EB! is a bachelor for a three-day-weekend...oh my! What to do? Can anyone say G-O-L-F ?

Mike - thanks for the compliment ;- ) I was kinda asking for your Yen analysis. It really looks like it will get some great play today, as do the Metals. Spot Plat zooomed last night and GC & SI are looking good as well.

Gentlemen/Gentlewomen - Let the games BEGIN!

away...to drop off my pookie ;-0
EB!

I can't tell the ! or the $... LGB, any thoughts?

EB:Man, are you up early.....I like $ better....also like the YEN and yesterday's trade news should only strenthen it in the medium-long term..
for what it's worth,Jimmy Rogers is also Looooong YEN....

S+P futures up 2.15

...good morning all.....
TOKYO, Sept 19 ( Reuter ) - Japanese banks need to be prepared for write-offs in Thailand while Thailand's economy goes
through a period of adjustment, Kosuke Nakahira, a former Japanese vice finance minister for international affairs, told Reuters
Financial Television ( RFTV ) on Friday.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/19/y0004_z00_2.html

Japan insurer negative about Hokkaido bank plan
Fujita, also chairman of the Life Insurance Association of Japan, said, ``I cannot agree to go along with the plans,'' which call on
life insurance companies with loans to the bank to convert them into shares.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/19/y0004_y00_2.html

TOKYO, Sept 19 ( Reuter ) - Heightening concern that Japan's Sanyo Securities Co Ltd ( 8605.T ) was having difficulty in repaying
its loans caused shares in the second-tier brokerage to tumble to record low levels on Friday.

The fears proved to be not totally groundless, as Sanyo revealed after the stock market closed that it would plunge into the red in
first-half of the current business year and that it wants a further extension of repayments on its subordinated loans from life
insurers.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/19/y0004_y00_6.html

US M-2 money supply off $12.5 bln in Sept 8 wk

NEW YORK, Sept 18 ( Reuter ) - U.S. M-2 money supply fell $12.5 billion in the September 8 week to $3,976.5 billion, the Federal
Reserve said.

The broader M-3 measure fell $4.3 billion to $5,222.3 billion. M-1 was down $19.6 billion to $1,060.1 billion, the Fed said.

The Fed said the four-week moving average of M-2 was $3,975.8 billion versus $3,969.5 billion in the previous week.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/18/y0004_z00_8.html

EB, & all: I do happen to have a first-trade Yen chart, based on the exact time of the opening of Yen futures trading first time ever. I will look at it when I have a breath. But more immediately, since the Moon has been in the Kitco headlines of late: as we post, the transiting Moon is conjuncting ( lining up at same degree ) NYSE Venus, my proprietary gold indicator in the NYSE 'scope. This is happening right at the COMEX opening New York time! Caution - this is a transitory and minor phenomenon, which may or may not have an impact on gold shares, or bullion. This is not a prediction, only a point of information and observation. I personally DO NOT make any market moves based on transiting Moon phenomena. I think by now it is clear why..

The news that the silver stocks in the comex dropped another 5% is exciting indeed and not just for us silver lovers. Gold lovers should also rejoice. Why should this be, is silver not a poor relation of gold? No not at all in fact silver could turn out to be almost a twin brother of gold in terms of total value world wide, when the financial house of cards comes down. Over the last year or so the price action in silver made little sense to me whereas I thought I understood golds price action. Gold is being put down by a very large RICH ( they will be much richer soon ) group. I did not believe they had any use for silver. I was wrong, they are accumulating silver also. Why would they want silver? There is about ten times as much silver stocks worldwide as there is gold stocks. Should the ratio of silver to gold go to ten to one their total values would be equal! Even at twenty to one the silver is worth having. What they want is precious metals and one color is as good as the other. Seen in this light silvers price action makes more sense to me. If the big guys are picking up both Gold will probably move when Silver does. When they can mulct no more.

WW: http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html

``Demand for jewellery and small bars is on the rise the world over and especially in the Middle East and Indian subcontinent,'' said
World Gold Council chief executive for Middle East and India Rolf Schneebeli.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/18/z0009_80.html

TED: Good Morning! On a roll? While I was eating my Thomas's Cranberry English muffin, dripping with orange marmalade and real sea salt and no salt butter, Nomercy came online and scooped me with all the Japanese gloom. Japanese gloom is the best kind because it has the best long term impact on gold. How is that being on a roll? I was on a muffin mabye, but not a roll.

KUCHING, Sept 19 ( Reuter ) - Malaysia declared a state of emergency in eastern Sarawak state on Friday as a smoky haze
which has choked Southeast Asia grew extremely dangerous.

Kuching, the capital of the Borneo island state, was largely deserted as schools, businesses and government offices shut.

Essential services such as clinics were to stay open.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/19/z0009_26.html

O.K. I give up! Why is gold up this morning? Is it short covering?

Hi Ted: Greetings to you and the "BIG woman"! Interesting comments in William Hanley's column ( Financial Post, Toronto ) this a.m. He quotes Pierre Lassonde ( president of Franco Nevada and Euro-Nevada ) as looking for a gold price between $315-365 over the next three years, then a breakout to upside. No-one, he suggests, is likely to get run over in any stampede into gold or gold shares, tho' he expects a 15% rise in gold equities over the next year. He added that central bankers ignorance of gold is appears infinite. Oh yes, Jim Grant, contrarian, and bless him for it, is also cited bullish on gold.

Heard any good bagpipes/fiddles down there lately? Society is advancing mightily here...now got Howard Stern on the radio in the a.m....and folks still runnin up escalators, so dam eager to get to work. Ah well, perhaps that's better than...

Granny...love yer posts...hope Thelma's lumbago is better.

O.K. I get it now, it's those witches! ( As in triple witch today. )

...from Business Week
For Malaysia about 30% of debt is in yen and 45% in dollars, but total debt as a proportion exports is
paltry at around 45%. For Thailand, a whopping 48% of debt is in yen, and it is was no surprise
therefore that the Baht crisis coincided with yen strengthening strongly. For the Philippines, yen
debts make up around 30% of the total. None of this really surprises given these countries' trade
patterns.
http://www.businessweek.com/today.htm

Mr. Peutz:

By your pronouncement, today will be make or break. With that in mind, I would like to take this opportunity to say something to you before it resolves itself either way.

Throughout history, men and women have destroyed each other with rumour, hate and vengenence and yes, even put people to death with whom they have found disagreement. It is a weakness of mankind that it requires the destruction of one to feel a lifting of the other. It's never right, however, it has happened.

Today will be very interesting, that's a given. Someone will attack you if it doesn't happen as you say, that's a given. Please try to remember that the only reason they're attacking is to try to make themselves important in their own eyes. They actually are the weakest of society and deserve our pity for their insecurity. They are trying to raise themselves to your level by lowering your statute. Don't fall to their level, they're unimportant.

Many a great man who had an idea has had to go through a growing period to mature the idea. The religions through history have even killed people in the name of God who thought the world was round rather than an 'acceptable' flat. It took time to prove them right. If you are right, it will take time to accept. It will take a lot of future work to make it an acceptable thought. The road will be rough and bumpy. You must however, stay the course as you may, in the future, become one of the prople Cherokke keeps referring to, as using their shoulders to see further. Right or wrong, don't give up on your dream. It's what improves the level of humanity. Best of Luck in the future.

TTFN

Land prices drop for sixth year; rate of
decline slows
Average land prices as of July 1 were down 1.6% year on year, the
sixth straight year of decline, the National Land Agency reported
Thursday. But the rate of decline slowed from the previous year's 2.5%
fall.

Commercial land prices dropped an average 5.1%, compared to a
6.9% fall the previous year. The average rate of decline in metropolitan
areas of Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya was 9.4%. Although this was the
first annual decline of less than 10% since 1991, analysts say the
continuing slide in land prices will make it difficult for financial institutions
to dispose of nonperforming assets.

Residential land prices fell an average of 0.7%, compared with a 1.3%
drop last year. Price declines in metropolitan Tokyo, Osaka, and
Nagoya slowed.

Real estate firms continued actively buying land for condominiums and
single-family homes, mainly in downtown areas. Residential land prices
are stabilizing, said agency officials. The fall in residential land prices in
central Tokyo slowed to 4.6% from 13.0% last year, as demand for
land recovered.

Commercial land prices in central Tokyo dropped 11.3%, against
22.3% last year. Central Osaka saw a fall of 12.7%, compared to
20.2% last year.

Yaohan Japan failure means default of
CBs
Yaohan Japan effectively defaulted on two tranches of domestic
unsecured convertible bonds and one of Euroyen CBs totaling 37.4
billion yen after the midsize supermarket firm sought court protection
from its creditors Thursday. This is said to be the first time a company
has defaulted on such bonds.

Bankruptcy law prohibits companies that file for protection from
repaying debt, in order to keep assets intact. As soon as the court starts
rehabilitation procedures, the company is in effective default on
outstanding bonds.

Yaohan President Mitsumasa Wada said the firm will decide how to
handle the convertible bonds within the framework of a 15-year
restructuring plan.

Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan, trustee for the first tranche of bonds,
said it is not considering buying the bonds from holders because the law
does not require such action.

Panda -- Gold is up 'cause it was 'time'. Expect another leg up. Then we see where it goes from there.

ASEAN seeks regional cooperation to end
currency crisis
BANGKOK ( Nikkei ) - The nine members of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) intend to increase cooperation
among their monetary authorities to stabilize currencies in the region,
association officials said. To this end, ASEAN held a vice ministerial
meeting here Thursday afternoon, followed by evening talks among
finance ministers. A meeting of central bank chiefs is also under
consideration.

The finance ministers will meet again in Kuala Lumpur late in the year,
moving up their second conference from the originally scheduled 1998.
The first such meeting was held in Thailand in February.

Member nations hope to accelerate cooperation in currency and finance
matters, which have heretofore lagged behind coordinated efforts in
trade, the officials said.

Hey Front, you are an alright guy.

DJ News ticker is reporting lots of sell imbalances on the blue chips. $PREM has been cut in half in the last half hour or so. Looks like a rocky open. DJ News also reports gold is up due to PHYSICAL buying? Who woulda thunk it?

Gold up over a buck; silver up; does life get better? Probably but in due course. The following story illustrates why the paper markets will fall either sooner or later.

Some corporate American types ( applying TQM as their new management
style ) and some Japanese business types decided to engage in a
competetive boat race. Both teams practiced hard and long to reach
their peak performance.

On the big day they felt ready. You could hear the teams chanting
in the strokes and both teams seemed to be working fiercely. Yet
the Japanese won by more than a mile...

Afterward, the American team was discouraged by the loss. Morale
sagged. Corporate management decided that the reason for the crushing
defeat had to be found, so a consulting firm was hired to investigate
the problem and recommended a new quality approach.

The consultant's found the following: The Japanese team had eight
people rowing and one person steering; the American team had one
person rowing and eight people steering and instructing the rower.

After a year of study and millions spent analyzing the problem, the
consultant firm concluded that too many people were steering and not
enough were rowing on the American Team. Thus the loss of over a
mile...

The American TQM team weren't going to stay down and were ready for
a re-match. So, as race day neared the following year, the American
team's management structure was completely reorganized, as a method
of responding to the consultant's review.

The new structure: four steering managers, three area steering
managers and a new performance review system for the person rowing
the boat to provide work incentive.

The next year, the Japanese won by two miles. Humiliated, the
American corporation fired the rower for poor performance and gave the
managers a bonus for discovering the problem.

Front -- That's what we need more of around here. Your O.K.!

Puetz -- Maybe you're right, maybe you're not, but you at least explained your ideas. That's a damn site more than some have done around here. Those who have sought to attack you personally as opposed to challenging your assertions with FACTS, are shallow individuals. It's easy to attack someone on a personal basis. Hell, school kids do it all the time in the school yard! Looking forward to more of your commentary, either way! After all, isn't this how we grow? By challenging ideas and assertions in the search for the 'truth of the moment'?

Look at that Platinum and Palladium! Later!

Gold up a buck but Joberg DOWN 2%. VERY DISTURBING ACTION.

Mike Sheller: Bravo on your excellent bond call.

...heavy volume on TSE...gold mining shares
ABX up .40 on 532,000
PDG up .15 on 529,000
TVX up .10 on 270,000

NOMERCY,
Yes,the whole coutry, regions around strait of sumatera,borneo area ,indo are badly covered by thick haze ( FOREST BURNING IN KALIMANTAN ) .iTS BEEN SINCE LAST MONTH.And the situations getting worst to terrible!Our govt just declared fully alect disaster tonite .if the situation get bad ,all the business,scholls,govt offices are forced to shut down temperally!...what a TIMING AT THIS STAGE....!
THE CURRENCY RATE DOWN TERRIBLE,KLSE HAMMERED DAY BY DAY,GOLD TOO!ONLY THE INDEX OF POLUTIOS GET SHOOOT UP,HOW POOR!DO KNOW last how long?you hardly see the views over 500 meters....haze,dry,bad cough,heat...!
many thanks for your news check!

Group, yesterday I was reading about the high level of margin account activity during 1929. Is it even higher today ?? Does anyone keep figures on this stat ??, One other sage here pointed to the fact that cutting margin losses is a major cause in crashes. I would like to know how 'jittery' the money is today.

Back from the airport minus one passenger...hmmmmmm...what to do...

Donald - "you must be Butta, cause you're on a roll!" Stuart Scott - ESPN You are still King-Scoop, not to worry ;- )

Front - Is that the Pre-emptory statement of what we know will happen but we don't want to wade through the tripe cause it's NOT original anymore kinda thing? Thanks...

Panda - Oh Chartmaster! Do you follow the Yen? Any takes? Gold is getting dragged by the ears from the illustrious rarer metal...oh and the witches are out...Physical Buying?!?...Never heard of such a thing...

Ted - Today is going to be Beautiful! Scattering of showers yesterday from LINDA but today will be sunshine and golf and you got it...Bud...the gooood kind ;- ) Save the bitter for home sipping. Talk at ya later, I got time this weekend...oh my! Football ( US ) , the boys, and slobbing around

Mounty-Boy - you gonna kick some metal around today? Don't stub your toes...

Tort - Thanks for the joke ;- ) Didn't you know that LGB doesn't want that kind of stuff on Barts site...?

LGB - I love you man. Giant ( baseball ) fan??

Bart - thanks a bunch bro.

away
eb

...heard on CNBC yesterday re: silver
..apparently the 'squeeze' is in Dec contracts -
silver 'quality' in the Comex warehouses not up to standards...
read the same thing about gold a few days back...
Could anyone comment further?

Stay absolutely calm! Tanzanian Shilling up 1/- to 612 against US$. Imperative.... do not panic.

I had to sign off shortly after I posted yesterday. So, if you
own a Shelby, tell me about it? How many were produced?

My best buddy owned a Shelby GT500. What a powerful piece of machinery. Used to do 60 to 120 before you could sneeze...I loved that car. White with a two blue stripes. That's more rare than gold OR plat. What does the KR stand for? I don't think his was a KR but then I don't know much about the subject. Had a 69 Chevelle SS stock as a stove. Loooong ago.

away
EB

I'm not too excited about today's action just yet, considering that the XAU is up primarily for the large increase in ABX, not from most of the other stocks. S. African index is down 2.0%. Someone doesn't agree with the Comex prices.

Trading halt on BGO ( for you BGO fans ) .

BGO resumed trading. Trading halted due to 'equipment change over' ?

Leverage is the vehicle that pushes markets beyond prudent levels. Once bull market reverses, leverage is the catalyst for panic selling. Short-interest level & NYSE Seats price bearish:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/puetz911.html

...for those 'goldilock economy' believers...the trend has changed...the impact of currencies devaluations worlwide is going to have IMMENSE impact to US, Canada.
US GNP's growth in the last couple of years has been fuelled by Exports ( est. 40% ) .
...US exports over 25% to Japan & SE Asia ( this will be curtailed by currencies devaluations ) .
...US exports to South America are over 40% ( will South America maintain it's global competitivess in lieu of SE Asian devaluations? I think not. Thus we can expect an accelarated depreciation of the brazilian Real & the Mexican peso.
...what will China do? will they enter the fray? ther're on the edge.
...what will Japan do? SELL US bonds to salvage economy?
...How can the US economy maintain its forecasted growth, if exports fall?
...what is the impact to Japan & other food importers by El Nino?
..what is the impact to the US stock market, if there's a sudden slowdown in exports?
...what is the effect to US economy WHEN bankruptcies accelerate due to loan & credit card defaults?
..what is the impact to US $ ? are you going to buy it? or run to a 'safer' neutral currency ( Gold ) or DM? or Swiss Mark?
..what is impact of EMU? will it be delayed in lieu of so many uncertainties in world economies?
...will Gold be 'rediscovered' & accumulated for investment purposes?



The prospect of these countries competing by cutting their currency values raises extreme risks
for the rest of the world, Crdit Suisse said. One risk is a trade war with the U.S. and Japan
battling China and the Asian tigers. Another risk is "extensive asset price destruction" in those
countries that have devalued their currencies. The latter can mean big problems for the U.S.,
Japan and other industrial economies because banks in those countries have helped finance
Asian tiger development. Currency devaluations raise the risk that loans will not be paid in full
and the banks will have to swallow losses.
http://www.canoe.ca/FPNews/eco_sep6_pressurepo.html

Guys, I warn you, I love talking about my car !! EB - KR is for 'King of the Road'. 500 denotes the big-block configuration package. General, my car is a 1968, ( I think 67s and 68s looked the best ) It is all original, but nowhere near 'concours'. The original paint ( calypso ? ) blue is badly faded and I am in the process of bringing it back to original splendour. Oh, it is a hardtop. I am slow on the project because I know I should keep the original colour, but I'm not too crazy about it. I would love wimbeldon white with a pair of blue LeMans stripes, that's my favorite ! Anyway, the paint is going to cost quite a bit, so I want to be sure before I go ahead. I'll keep it at that for now, I think my model production figures are roughly 300-400 made. I have the exact figure somewhere. I'll keep you posted on any developments you 'cobraphiles'.

Thanks for the info on your Shelby. Best of luck with the
paint job. The 84-86 production run of Mustang SVO's was
about 10,000; not as rare or powerful as the Shelby's but I
think the potential is still there as a collectible.
PS You can still get them cheap since they really haven't
caught on with the collectibles crowd in general ( they also
have their own organization, SVO ( Special Vehicle OPerations )
Owners Association ) or SVOOA. )

Congratulations are in order for the magnificent Gold-Eagle
website
http://www.gold-eagle.com/ Gold-Eagle has been selected
as one of the best sites on the Web by Lycos TOP 5%.
Lycos TOP 5% is the oldest and most prestigious Website
directory. Since 1994, their expert reviewers have scoured
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Kitcoites and others who have enjoyed the FREE benefits
of unique articles and massive financial coverage that
Gold-Eagle provides should be proud for this wonderful site.
It's a great acknowledgement of goldbugs and controversial
financial thinkers everywhere. Congratulations to Vronsky
and Westerman for their superb efforts. And my personal
thanks from a resident Kitco "Flake" for their welcome to
the Astrological Investor, and many other pithy and pointed
points of view!

Donald - it doesn't matter if bonds are being bought for the short-
term, somebody is stuck with the loss. On the other end, mortgage
rates are driven down, and somebody gets a free ride through
refinancing = Increased cash flow for consumer spending.

It could go on indefinitely. Economy slows down, stock money
moves to bonds, rates go down, debtors get restoration of their
cash flow to continue buying and borrowing.

For those in Southern California who have time for concerts
but not reality:


THE CINEMA STAR THEATER IN RIVERSIDE - 1201 University Avenue -
RIVERSIDE, CA

909-683-7469

Showtimes: FRI & SAT & WED: 10:20 AM, 1:20 PM, 4:20 PM, 7:20 PM, 10:20
PM

SUN & MON & TUES have same times except last show of the evening is 7:20
PM

PRICES: BEFORE NOON: $3.00, NOON - 6:00 PM: $4.25, AFTER 6:00 PM:
$6.75

Gold Eagle fully deserves the accolades received.
It is by far the most informative in depth internet site available to investors. It is valuable not only to gold investors but investors in stocks which can learn the 'risks' involved in their paper investments.

Well done Gold Eagle & thanks, as it has enlightened me in the world of investments and its caveats.

WHO CARES: OK, you refinance your house and put an extra, say $200 a month into the economy. I am the bond holder and I have $200 less to spend because of your good fortune. To the economy it is a wash.

Donald ( 9:09 ) : ".....CBs Yaohan Japan effectively defaulted on two tranches......". Is this the first sniff of an unraveling in the huge derivatives market? All that's needed is for someone to find the real loose end and we could see the entire fabric begin to unravel.

South Korea's globally ambitious auto makers are poised to
send a flood of low-cost automobiles into an already
overcrowded world market, a prospect that is sending shock
waves across the Pacific.
The apparent determination of the financially troubled Asian tiger
to export its way out of its economic woes is symptomatic of broader
trouble ahead in the global trading system, economists and diplomats
warn.
For South Korea is not alone. From Japan to Thailand, the "Asian
miracle" finds itself in varying stages of disrepair, and the easiest way
back to health for these once-robust economies is to crank up their
vaunted export machines while continuing to protect their weak
players.
http://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/BUSINESS/topstory.html

"LIFT-OFF" ! -- My perspective ( 2-cents' worth ? ) here, is that we are at "lift-off", for the precious metals. Key mining stocks, such as ABX & others, have completed their reverse head-and-shoulders chart patterns.
My kitco post of some weeks ago referred to the importance of the completion of this technical chart pattern, before a sustained upside move for the metals was likely. The 'XAU' has had a good, and probably a 'final' shake-out, for many months to come, from the 100 level, down to almost 90.
It is now stubbornly gathering momentum on the upside, currently at 96+, for a "lift-off". As it moves through the 100 level, and begins to accelerate, we will witness a sustained bull move in the four precious metals - gold, silver, platinum, & paladium, and in related mining stocks.
Here, at the end of summer, and the beginning of fall, 1997, we are at the beginning of the first enduring, intermediate bull-market move, in precious metals, since the first quarter of '95, and again, since the 4th quarter of '95.
We are at "lift-off".

For WW
At last we find something we agree on _ you are
interested in lease rate moves in precious metals.
I am too. But be careful. If you say anything about
it, you will be totally ignored except by a few on this
site.
Maybe we can work together on this ( since nobody else
seems interested ) - with one proviso. YOU Dont sling
left wing crapola at me and I dont shovel right wing
garbage at you. OK ?
Im so interested in this Ill even work with a LAWYER.

It's not a wash. The country is divided into two groups of
people, spenders and savers. Everyone is worried about the
spenders, because they're going bankrupt. By shifting YOUR
money into the hands of spenders, consumer spending goes back
up. Spenders see a net gain.

YOU would just dumped into the bank, as a LOAN, thereby
excerbating the problem. : )

It's the difference between LOANING money and GIVING money
away. : ) If you think it's a wash, send me a check, not a
loan agreement. : )
Here's another thought, quickly. Why can't interest rates
go up?

Imagine I am a bank. Imagine I have shifted 30% of my assets
into bonds. ( I think the average is over 50% now, right? ) .

Imagine that I have purchased those bonds on 2% margin. ( Which
was the going rate a few years ago ) .

Imagine that interest rates rise 2 points.

Am I solvent? When do I balance my books and show the real
numbers? Seven years from now?

To All... Earnings are starting to breakdown. This incredible
market is built on 20% increases in earnings. This trend is starting
to erode. The markets are going to start a slow slide down.

David: The North American mining stocks indeed are acting much better. But Joberg fell 1.8% today to establish a new yearly low. Which is real and which is the fakeout?

John Disney: Any thoughts on why the SA golds were so weak today?

nomercy: Muchas gracias, Muito obrigado, Vielan Dank & Merci boucoup for the kind words regarding GOLD-EAGLE being selected as one of the best sites on the Web by Lycos TOP 5%. Much of the credit for our achievements goes to the many contributors, who unselfishly share their in-depth analysis, insightful studies and well considered thoughts with us all. Heartfelt thanks to you all.

Mike: I join you in celebrating Gold Eagle. Professor Vronsky has done an excellent job. Gold Eagle has to be the very best one stop shopping for gold information on the web.

For George Cole
I have no idea why SA golds were so poor today. It may
have been just to irritate me. Also no one seems to have
told them that they are supposed to lead gold.

Bernie: I agree with you 100% corporate earnings are largely a mirage. Money shifted from the pockets of labor into larger pockets. The myth of greater productivity continues of course, as does its fellow myth that gold is not needed as money any longer. In my opinion both myths will tested severely soon.

...to ALL goldilocks pundits...what is the impact to US economy, corporate earnings and market capitalization of REDUCED exports to these areas?
...what is the effect of Quebec separating from Canada?
...what is the effect of Mexico's foreign debt if peso devalues?
...what is effect to US brokerage/banking industry if market activity diminishes?
...what is the effect to Stock Market sell-off in lieu of LOWER EARNINGS...AND slower growth?
...what is the effect of higher trade balance deficits?
...what is the effect of higher unemployment in lieu of high consumer debt?
...will we see an exodus of US $ away from the US as the 'image' gets tarnished?
...will Merril Lynch be able to circulate false rumours of CB selling gold, in lieu of falling markets and divestments of US treasuries?
...will gold investment increase?

Selected Actual US Exports figures ( US $ bn ) 1997 todate ( July )

Canada 86,769
Mexico 38,706
Australia 7,021
China 6,903
Japan 38,928

Hong Kong 8,685
Korea 15,882
Singapore 10,277
Taiwan 11,274
Other Pacific Rim ( 2 ) 14,582
South/Central America
Argentina 3,060
Brazil 8,582
Colombia 2,981
Other S/C A ( 2 ) 20,127
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/exh14.txt

Why is RSA gold down? Perhaps the labor agreement. Perhaps a mini "market virus" that swept through and doesn't reflect underlying fundamentals.

Noone can predict with certainty, which is why I admire posters such as our GSC who can from experience assert, when bullion is up and stocks don't respond, that's a bad sign. That's not a prediction, but rather a wise observation based on honest experience. Many shots in the general direction of the target impress me more than a lucky bull's eye.

This morning I want to talk about Gold and Cryptography. The latest issue of Forbes has a long article on "hard crypto" and how this technology will proliferate through society and the effects of this. I suggest everyone read the article, it got my attention. The most interesting part of the article was the description of how cryptographic technology could be used to create your own secret currency. Ultimately this could replace central banks. The article goes on to say that this new e-currency would be backed by the reputation of the issuer. I figure a few scams will put an end to reputation backed e-currency. I predict that what will ultimately emerge is commodity backed e-currency. Whats the best commodity? Gold, Silver, Platinum. Just think, you'll be your own central bank. You will be able to issue e-currency backed by your own private stash of precious metals. And crypotographic technology in the hands of everyone will make this possible. I would really like to know what everyone thinks of this idea.

...interesting 'ways' of Reuter reporting on 'gold'.
Today they only have one line," COMEX December gold was $0.80 firmer at $323.50. "
...no CB rumours, no reason given for upward movement...no interviews...

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/19/y0023_z00_22.html

Ted Turner has donatated 1 billion dollars to worthy causes, 100 million dollars for the nexted 10 years. He's also asking super wealthy to meet
or beat this amount, could this be some sort of hidden agenda or is this how people of his calibre lessen the impact of the coming monetary shakeout?? Thats one heck of alot paper promises!!

BGO news...
VANCOUVER, Sept. 19 /CNW-PRN/ - Bema Gold Corporation has finalized terms with BZW Mining and Metals, the
investment banking division of Barclays Bank PLC, for up to US$45 million non-recourse project loan to replace a US$34
million gold loan based on Bema's 50% share of the Refugio Mine's gold production
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/97/09/19/bgo_bgo_1.html

EARL: It doesn't seem any different than in the U.S. when there is a default on an unsecured convert. Just another junk bond default. If the holders of the bonds were banks there could be problems in meeting BIS standards. Often these defaults start a chain reaction. This seems like a fairly large one on top of some construction companies failures in recent days. We may be at an acceleration point now. The Japanese are having a lot of bad days in a row.

South Africa is weak IMHO, because of a uniquely screwed up political/
economic system. I feel XAU is more closely tied to the underlying
real "pulse" of the gold market.

WHO CARES: I am sure there is truth in what you say but it is hard to measure. There are also some tax ramifications plus and minus that have an impact on the economy. I believe that my point is mostly valid, certainly the entire $200 in my example does not go to hype the economy.

Indonesia has been hit by a severe drought, believed to be linked to the El Nino weather pattern forming in the Pacific Ocean,
which is affecting commodities such as rice, coffee, cocoa and corn.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/18/z0009_87.html

NOMERCY: Thanks for Bema news. Is your real name Clark Kent? Do you go out with Lois Lane?

TOP STORIES

Sato set to resign cabinet post at Monday meeting with Hashimoto
Japan backs proposed Asian currency fund: Mitsuzuka
Japan broadens greenhouse gas category for Kyoto confab
Major cement makers to reduce output to buoy prices
Manufacturers to squeeze inventories toward year-end



ECONOMY/FINANCE

DKB, Nomura pledge to reform in-house supervision
Labor Ministry to rework 'zaikei' pension system



AROUND ASIA

JCB signs up Bank of China in credit card deal
Honda to open motorcycle R&D unit in Thailand
Most Japanese firms in Thailand face falling revenues: Keidanren



HIGH-TECH

Nihon Mediwell markets software to report medical tests online
Universities to exchange liver transplant data via Internet
NTT unit to offer e-mail checking service for travelers in U.S.



AUTO & OTHER

Sumitomo wins 12 bln yen vessel order from Canadian shipper
Steelmakers boosting output of quake-proof material
Sanyo Electric Credit to issue CP, enter lending business

I'd have to be to keep up with you!
I'm learning a lot, thanks to you 'masters'. Just trying to climb on top of the 'giants shoulders' to see further.

John Disney -- Perhaps the S.A. gold stocks ARE leading! As I said to Panda this morning: expect another leg up. Then we see. Now we are seeing, I believe, the beginning of another soutward movement in the gold. I'll let it 'surprise' me if it be anything but!

I just saw the article about Ted Turner donating $1 Billion
over 10 years to "UN causes" and looking for other rich
backers. Don't kid yourself! Men like he are set on instituting
the New World Order in which they will be in charge of whole
nations. A true benefactor does so as quietly and anonymously
as possible; not to draw attention to himself and his potential
leadership abilities. I don't know who is higher on the NWO
pecking order, Clinton or Turner, but I trust neither of them
in their quest for power at any ( and I mean ANY ) cost.
The UN puts the "un" in "unamerican".

One caveat to my last; It could still make a few waves at/near the 323.5/323 area and still go on to better 'things'. Watch to see how it treats these areas ( Dec basis ) . Below 322.7 is where the real worry should begin.

Excellent ( IMHO ) op-ed page piece on SA today. That country needs a miracle.

Todays Wall Street Journal has an editorial on the various political and economic problems in SA right now. Although nothing new, perhaps this is related to SA stocks heading south for the moment. There is also some local stock market thing going on that was supposed to depress SA stocks thru today.

OTOH, SA is the most economically and politically-advanced country in Africa right now. And African ( not to say SA ) mining has a reputation for going on no matter what. The mining companies were right there making a deal in Zaire after Mobutu fell. The situation in SA right now is a lot more like ( say ) some Italian crisis than some other African country. For one thing, government needs the jobs and money with the horrendous unemployment rate among blacks. After some disasterous examples elsewhere in Africa, they also understand that they cannot produce and market themselves. Better to be the shearers of the capitalist sheep ( G ) . Perhaps there are some bargains to be found.

JERUSALEM ( September 19 ) - The Palestinian Authority Cabinet met last night to discuss the
arrangement reached by Israel to resolve the Ras al-Amud crisis as Palestinian officials, raising the
prospect of violence, rejected any deal that allows Jews in the Jerusalem neighborhood.

"There is a limit to all patience," PA chief Yasser Arafat said.

"There is no doubt that these events will cause a dangerous situation in the region."

Arafat demanded the evacuation of all Jews from the building bought in Ras al-Amud. He said
otherwise this would represent another type of Jewish settlement, which he termed a "gross
violation of the agreements [with Israel]."
http://www.jpost.co.il/News/Article-4.html

Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat warns that unless
United States efforts can breathe life into the peace process,
"We will enter into an era of confusion where all is possible,
including war."

His warning was repeated by Ehud Barak, the leader of
Israel's opposition Labor party, in front of 20,000 Israelis at a
pro-peace rally in Tel Aviv on Saturday night. "War is just
around the corner, only a blind man cannot see the threat
looming," he warned, blaming right-wing Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu's hard-line polices.
http://www.arabicnews.com/ansub/Daily/Day/970919/1997091912.html

General -- I LIKE how you said that: The UN in unamerican! Makes a whole lot of sense to ME!!! It's rather 'swell' ain't it!

Cape Town - The El Nino weather phenomenon could shave off 1,2
percent of GDP growth next year if it caused a drought as bad as that in
1991-92, Mohammed Valli Moosa, the provincial affairs minister and the
chairman of the government's interministerial committee for disaster
management, said yesterday.
http://www.inc.co.za/online/star/headlines/1997/09/190997/br_nino.html

Seems like the local population doesn't like cyanide leaching.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/19/y0023_z00_6.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/09/19/international_news/turkeyexp_1.html
Or was it a Communist Group?

Enuf said about one big happy NEW WORLD ORDER.

Brazil says it is not next in line for financial crisis

HONG KONG, Sept 19 ( AFP ) - Brazilian Finance Minister Pedro
Malan said Friday his country was not next in line to suffer a
financial crisis such as those that struck Mexico and Thailand.
"I understand that some people are nervous, and that after
Mexico and Thailand they are trying to find who is going to be next,
but it is a mistake to think that it could be Brazil," he told
foreign journalists here.
Malan, speaking ahead of meetings of the World Bank and
International Monetary Fund here next week, said Brazil's current
account deficit was running at 3.88 percent of gross domestic
product ( GDP ) up to August 31.
"And we will finish the year with four point something, but
nearly half of it is being financed by foreign direct investment,
not short term, volatile capital of a very short nature," he said.
Malan said that the Brazilian current deficit was less than half
that suffered by Mexico in its financial crisis and dismissed any
systemic risk in the banking sector.
"I don't see any problems with the financing of our current
account deficit in the next few years."
He dismissed recent advice from IMF research director Michael
Mussa that Brazil, while enjoying a strong economy, should monitor
its high current account deficit and watch its currency to avoid a
substantial over-valuation.

Financial physicians give Asia ailing economies good prognosis

HONG KONG, Sept 19 ( AFP ) - The world's top financial physicians
reckon the prognosis is good for Southeast Asia's sickest patient,
but there is still more delicate surgery to be performed before it
is out of intensive care.
Officials from the World Bank and the International Monetary
Fund ( IMF ) , as well as delegates attending the boards of governors
meeting here, have revelled in medical analogies that make the Hong
Kong conference a cross between US hospital dramas "ER" and "Chicago
Hope" in pinstripes
A battery of medical terms have been used by speakers during
seminars and news briefings to illustrate the currency contagion
sweeping the region.
And it was Thailand on the operating table after its baht fell
more than 30 percent after monetary authorities in Bangkok
effectively devalued the unit July 2 -- a sneeze that rapidly
developed into full-blown financial flu that laid low other
Southeast Asian currencies as well.
IMF research director Michael Mussa described Thailand as "the
patient under examination" and said he had "considerable sympathy
for the Thais in this circumstance."
It was the IMF who arrived at Bangkok's bedside in August with a
17.2 billion shot in the arm, administered by international
institutions and regional central banks, to revive its near critical
economy, but with some strict doctor's advice.

Inflows to Junk Bonds $366 million last week.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/19/z0000_z00_9.html

A call for the impeachment of the Vice President.
http://www.enews.com/magazines/tnr/current/trb100697.html

For Goldman - Your off the cuff ( or off the wall )
conclusion than the RSA golds are down because of a
"uniquely screwed up political and economic system"
makes no sense to me - The RSA industrials are up
9.5% in $ terms which is not too bad relative to
European and Asian markets. It is in line with Hong
Kong - a little below Europe.
The pile of Socialist nincompoops in the ANC are
rapidly being converted to Capitalism. Like most
socialists, they say one thing and DO another.
I certainly don't wish to defend the idiots that
run this country, but in many ways I prefer them to
the Statist power mad bureaucrats that run Europe, and
I left Australia ( which I love ) because the same thing
was happening there. I dont like the US polititians
either - not even the republican sellouts.
IMHO, the RSA golds are probably off, because the
big local funds who really control the markets here,
are completely out of them and will not get
in until two things happen 1 ) industrial stocks turn down
decisively and 2 ) gold turns up decisively. I believe
gold MUST lead the RSA gold market. The interest in
the industrials is very strong and the sentiment
towards GOLD is very poor.
For info, the 1993 bull in RSA gold stocks was led by
US and European buying. The Funds got in very late and
got burned.
For Eldorado - On the other hand, The rsa golds may
be leading - down - that is. But I rather think it is
disinterest more than anything else.

Russi-DeBeers deal involves Russian precious metals unit.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/19/z0009_21.html

They mean no harm, they just want to make sure that we don't get out of line. Thus a multitude of laws and regulations, all of which bring up prices and fatten their purses; this while they always show their appreciation for human and earthly values. WHO'S?.......THEIRS, not ours.

El Nino causes problems with New Guinea gold mines. ( May be a repost )
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/17/pdg_y0023_1.html

News from Pan American Silver Corp.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/97/09/19/paa_paas_1.html

LSteve: Hard crytopgraphy is here now, PGP lets you send emessages anywhere and big brother needs a few billion years with his cray to tell what you have said. Its the next big battle for our freedoms. Look for this freedom to be attacked the same way the right to keep and bear arms is being attacked. Murder for hire will be contracted over the net using hard encryption. Many will die. They will say, see you need us to take away another freedom so we can protect you from us. This time we may have the edge though. I am sure BB Fisher could give us a better discription but there is a simple technique which may cause big brother some grief. When the laws are passed mandating some weak encryption you say fine, you encrypt your clear text message with PGP then take this and encrypt it with the wimp crypto. There are even techniques being developed by freedom loving crypto experts to prevent big brother from telling if you have done this! If millions would do this as well as telling them to shove it when they demand we register our firearms, there is little they could do. Will the public stand up to these creeps? Some are standing now. Wish our crypto brothers well friends we need a few victories.

Hope that Hashimoto fires back at any volly that Rubin unleashes at Japan.
If such occurs, Hashimoto may just have to make some of his former pronouncements fact. Samurai Code you know.
I'm sure that Rubin will be very careful in his opinions of Japan, while their opinions of US may be otherwise.

September 19, 1997

Closing overseas stock market indices

LONDON ( Reuter ) - Here is how major stock markets outside the United States ended Friday.

LONDON - Britain's FTSE 100 lost its wind as a disappointing start on Wall Street persuaded investors to take profits after this week's surge, dealers and strategists said. The FTSE 100 closed at
5,023.8, down 22.4 points, or 0.44 percent. There was a rise of 175.6 points on last week.

FRANKFURT - Stocks ended post-market computer trading in negative territory as a weaker Wall Street and dollar erased the market's earlier gains, dealers said. The DAX-30 index closed at 4,032.97, up 32.49 points, or 0.81 percent, a rise of 178.16 from last Friday. In later screen-based trade, the IBIS DAX index ended at 3,983.06, down 20.98 points, or 0.52 percent.

PARIS - Stocks slipped into the red but remained relatively immune from Wall Street loses amid "triple witching" options and futures expirations, dealers said. The CAC-40 index closed at 2,977.18, down 1.19 points, or 0.04 percent and up 143.11 points since last week.

TOKYO - The stock market's key benchmark ended above the 18,000 level for the first time in about a week, as buying in select blue-chip issues erased early morning losses and lifted the Nikkei
average, brokers said. The 225-stock Nikkei average closed at 18,058.21, up 128.12 points, or 0.71 percent, gaining 92.41 points on the week.

HONG KONG - Stocks ended weaker following choppy trade as buying interest dried up in the absence of fresh news, dealers said. The Hang Seng index closed at 14,384.13, down 35.32 points, or 0.24 percent. There was a fall of 86.33 since last week.

SYDNEY - The stock market fought its way back above 2,700 led by banks as investors adjusted to the inflation-friendly environment at home and in the United States. The All Ordinaries index closed at 2,730.4, up 34.1 points, or 1.26 percent, gaining 90.4 points since last Friday.

JOHANNESBURG - Gyrations spawned by the expiration of the South African September equity index futures contracts pushed industrial stocks deep into negative territory in heavy trade. The All-stock index closed at 7,177.2, down 14.6 points, or 0.20 percent, rising 8.5 on the week. The
All-Gold index closed at 899.9, down 16.4 points, or 1.79 percent, falling 64.5 from last Friday, while the Industrial index closed at 8,744.4, down 59.4 points, or 0.67 percent falling 3.9 points from a week ago.

John Disney -- Re: the S.A. golds and 'dis-interest'. Probably so, but I can easily tend to view 'disinterest' in the same terms as 'headin' south'. The gold could simply do a little sideways tracking too. I'm sure we'll find out more come Monday. Best regards.

Donald: What I was referring to was the increasing possibility that default of one tranche in one location, may one day, impact the underlying paper to such an extent that the worldwide derivative mechanism may begin to unravel. I don't think anyone has a firm handle on the extent or possible sensitivity of that market, should major default occur in some obscure location.

September 19, 1997
Inflation rate remains steady, but interest rate hike expected

OTTAWA ( CP ) - Canada's summer economy continued to sizzle in July and August, but financial experts still expect the Bank of Canada to hike
interest rates to prop up the loonie.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Economy.html

September 19, 1997
Inflation rate holds steady

OTTAWA ( CP ) - A review of leading economic statistics released thisweek:
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Stats-Review.html

September 19, 1997
Retail sales hot in July

OTTAWA ( CP ) - Another indicator emerged today of how hot the economy was this summer as Statistics Canada reported retail sales in July rose by eight per cent over the same month of last year. It was the largest year-over-year gain since June 1994.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Retail-Sales.html

The Balance Sheet of the BIS

At 31st March 1997 the Bank's balance-sheet total stood at 66.8 billion gold francs, with the Bank's own funds ( capital and reserves ) at 2.4 billion gold francs. Expressed in US dollars with gold at the then current market price the figures could be put at US$ 135.6 billion and
US$ 5.5 billion, respectively.

Banking operations

The Banking Department of the BIS carries out a wide range of banking operations, which arise from its role of providing financial services to assist central banks in the management of their external reserves. At present, around 120 central banks and international financial institutions from all over the world place deposits with the BIS. The total of the currency deposits so placed with the BIS amounted to about US$ 113.1 billion at the end of March 1997, representing around 7% of world foreign exchange reserves.
The substantial size of the Bank's balance-sheet total reflects the importance of the functions of the BIS as banker to central banks. Because a high proportion of the reserve assets which central banks hold in the form of deposits with the BIS needs to be available to them
at rather short notice, the Bank's employment of these resources focuses upon maintaining a high degree of liquidity. Most of these funds are placed in the market, mainly in the form of investments with top-quality commercial banks and purchases of short-term government securities. While these operations today constitute the bulk of the Bank's business, it also conducts a range of foreign exchange and gold operations on behalf of its customers.

September 19, 1997
Inco falls on Voisey's Bay delay

TORONTO, Sept 19 ( Reuter ) - Shares in Canada's Inco Ltd sank on Friday after the nickel giant announced a one-year delay of its massive Voisey's Bay nickel project.

Inco stock was off 2.10 at 33.80 in heavy morning turnover of 1.4 million shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The stock earlier hit a 52-week low of 33.60.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/INCO-NTO-FALLS-ON.html

I like Sunshine, but how can their high cost Coeur operations make any money, when the last that I seen were
over $5 buck an ounce?
Pan American Silver with raw mining costs at $2.04 in Peru still isn't making money, of course they have other costs, that have to be high simply because she's not making money. True; they are reputed to have large reserves, but they cost money to put into operation.
If a major like PDG was involved with them, I'd feel better about them.
Also wonder if Sunshine will ever get the cash for Pirquitas' project if silver remains as is.

absolutely incredible to read through todays postings
and not encounter the usual......

theme song from twilight-zone playing loudly-----do-do-do-do--do-do-do-do---

recent full moon, triple witching, harmony @kitco,
do-do-do-do----do-do-do-do-----

SOMETHING is fixing to happen with ALL of these
major indicies forming a linearity never-before
seen! the ssm is tracking a micro-meteor and will
try to up-link for a transfer of cosmic debris. ( frank zappa )
let the transfer begin....giants at the ready.....
engage.............

cherokee!; ) waiting-on-winter@96*F

http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/biz/091997/biz14_26260_noframes.html

Gosh, we just closed that large opening gap of today on the XAU daily chart. I was concerned that we would have to fill it further down the road. Now that it has been filled, we can resume our upward journey on Monday. ( I said confidently ) .

September 19, 1997
Inco says Voisey's Bay delayed by one year

TORONTO ( Reuter ) - Canada's Inco Ltd. , the Western world's biggest nickel producer, said Friday it would delay its $4.5 billion Voisey's Bay nickel project by at least a year due to a tangled environmental review process.

Investors reacted by dumping Inco's stock Friday, but there was little impact on nickel prices. The Toronto-based nickel giant also launched a comprehensive review of the huge mining project located in a remote part of Labrador, Newfoundland,

Inco paid $3.2 billion for Voisey's Bay last year after winning a takeover battle with rival Falconbridge Ltd. for the prized deposit.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/MINING-INCO-ISTLD.html

Cherokee -- Yup! Didn't even have to put the scroll button to the metal to get past crap. Twas nice and the way it ought to stay.

September 19, 1997

Bank of Canada deputy stresses pre-emptive role

OTTAWA, Sept 19 ( Reuter ) - Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sheryl Kennedy said the central bank should be "forward-looking""and "pre-emptive""in its role in managing monetary policy.

She told a luncheon meeting the bank would take "timely and measured steps" "to curb inflation.

With the Canadian economy looking strong and job prospects improving, "one has to ease up on the accelerator and get back to a neutral ( monetary policy ) setting," Kennedy said.

The aim is to prevent a boom and bust economy once economic growth absorbs all the excess capacity that now keeps inflation in check, she said.

She was reiterating statements made earlier this week by Bank of Canada Governor Gordon Thiessen in Boston.
Kennedy said the bank was making an effort to keep capital markets well informed about the bank's intentions.

"We don't want markets to be surprised," she said.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BANK-OF-CANADA-DEPUTY.html

Donald: Looking forward to all your posting on the big IMF annual meeting news this weekend. However, hope you can get a hold of some of that "wisper news", you know, that suff that only the "high priests" have access to. : )

September 19, 1997

U.S. Commerce's Daley urges trade bill passage soon

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - Failure to give President Clinton new authority to negotiate trade deals soon could put the United States on the sidelines of the global economy for years, Commerce Secretary William Daley said Friday.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/TRADE-USA.html

September 19, 1997

EU says Helms-Burton talks disappointing

BRUSSELS, Belgium ( Reuter ) - Talks between the European Union and the United States on a dispute over Washington's Helms-Burton law on investment in Cuba have been disappointing so far and a deal remains distant, the European Commission said Friday.
The two sides had managed in April to defuse a bitter spat over the U.S. law, which seeks to punish companies investing in confiscated Cuban properties, by agreeing to reach an accord by Oct. 15.

"We are quite a long way from a deal," Peter Guilford, spokesman for EU Trade Commissioner Sir Leon Brittan, told reporters when asked about a round of talks in Paris this week.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/TRADE-EUROPE-USA.html

...IMF's requirements are going to prove impractical to apply...they don't play the game...but yet make the rules.......
The sticking point is repayment of 422.9 billion baht in loans
made to the 58 firms by the Financial Institutions Development
Fund.

The committee requires that all firms allowed to resume
operations, either through recapitalisation or mergers, start
repaying loans to the Fund within six months of resuming
business. All the loans must be repaid in full within three years.
http://www.bangkokpost.net/today/1909_busi01.html

September 19, 1997
U.S. bank laws survive another year as reform falters

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - Bickering between banks and insurance groups has scuttled the latest bid in Congress to rewrite the nation's antiquated financial laws, but analysts said the marketplace would keep changing at a rapid pace.

Big banks have snapped up a host of securities firms this year after the Federal Reserve in December reinterpreted part of Glass-Steagall to more than double the amount banks could earn from selling and underwriting securities.

And as restrictions have been lifted from savings and loan instutitions, which can be owned by non-banking companies, insurance companies have begun filing for permission to open their own thrifts to compete with banks.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BANKING-REFORM.html>http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BANKING-REFORM.html

September 19, 1997
Trio settles SEC securities fraud charges

WASHINGTON, Sept 19 ( Reuter ) - Three Georgia men agreed to pay penalities to settle civil charges they allegedly violated securities laws by defrauding about 24,000 U.S. and Canadian investors of about $32 million, regulators said Friday.

Without admitting or denying allegations, David Staub, 49, Frank Garner, 59, and his brother Fred Garner, 58, agreed to pay a yet-to-be determined amount, which will include civil penalities and repayment of ill-gotten gain plus prejudgment interest, the Securities and Exchange Commission said.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BANKING-REFORM.html

Banking Site:
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BANKING-REFORM.html

SEC Site:
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/TRIO-SETTLES-SEC-SECU.html

BYRON: I think they are in Hong Kong to baht around a few ideas, if I remimbi correctly. Perhaps they will go out to dinar ounce or twice. Does that ringgit a bell? What else do you won to know? I hope the don't make rupee at taxpayer expense.

...our research continues for our Dipsters...
Flash! Flash!
Add Union Carbide to the 'disapponting' earning list for 3rd qtr due to 'higher raw material costs' ( ! )
...we have close to 1/3 of the Dow top 30 on our lower sales or lower earnings or lower growth or.....high US $....

At this pace the P/E ratios are going to go from averaging 22 to 28 or more. Great buying opportunities.

More to come....

Jack ( G7 ) -- Just as I pay for cheap golf in the afternoon ( frugal&fun ) I will be paying for cheap YEN today.

I love these G7 meetings. They all smile at each other, because the deals have been made Prior, and put on some cowboy boots and jig a little ( JohnWayne ) . Yen says to dollar look at this surplus. Dollar says to yen. Here is my concession ( Definition 4A-The privilage of maintaining a subsidiary business within certain premises ) . And then Mr. YEN Pops-off or Mr. Rubin does and soon they all make gazillions ( right?who cares? ) It's all a big roller coaster ride and as Bob Weir says, "goin' to hell in a bucket baby...wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!

AWAY...to search for a fourth
EB$$$$$

cherokee-get it ON! Zappa lives...

...They've thrown a hail mary pass....
"The next coming years will prove that the steps that have been taken
during the last few months have been successful," he added.

Market players, however, had hoped the summit would produce a
coordinated response to the crisis in Southeast Asia's currency and stock
markets unleashed by Thailand's effective devaluation of the baht in May.
http://www2.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/biz/091997/bizt_29093_S1.html

Perhaps my SA comment was a bit harsh, but I stick with the basic
point. After decades of political oppression, its to be expected
that there will be a protracted period of revenge.

My occational pedantic ramble...

V-O-L-A-T-I-L-I-T-Y

It appears the markets are full of Bulls AND Bears. Pushing things around; First up,up,up then down, down, down. Today the opposite. General trend is slightly negative. Evenly split, dynamic groups. One of these days someone will say 'BOO!'. Who will run away? Where is the good news for Bulls? That would be a 'BOO!' for Bears. Where is the bad news for Bulls? That would be their 'BOO!'. There has been a steady shift into the Bear camp from the Bull camp. Now they're even or there abouts. ( Fear metamorphs a Bull into a Bear. They are the same investor. )

Asia is obviously looking pretty bad. Place yourself in Japan and think about 1990 through 1997. Think about these major bankrupcies and stagnation in a nation which has prided itself on its wisdom and financial self discipline. They are in a depression. Last year's scandles. This year's bankrupcies. A bond default here. A bank failure there. Slowly, slowly, inexorably. This rot will spread around the world.

I don't believe people want to look at the numbers here. They are waiting for something or someone to happen for/to them. It is a very emotional situation. By that I mean that things are not rationally being evaluated and acted upon. The Bulls are very invested in this market both emotionally and financially. They will not be looking at numbers. They already have the numbers and are not responding to them. Maybe an interest rate or inflation number might slap them awake. But we have seen that those numbers are being massaged. Fear is the trigger.

Until the Bulls give up we will have what we have been having: Alot of choppy water. Ups and downs. Slow down trend.

It seems that gold had some of the volatility of PA/PT today. Agree with GSC that US$ must become destabilized. But that destabilization could come from a surge in gold and silver which was driven by global commodity pressures and uncontrollable by CB's and their friends. Possibly Silver will lead this time. This squeeze by gold/pm's being up and continuing financial decrepitude in Asean countries could trigger doubt in the US enterprise and $$. Then fear, and the race down is on.

Its still only the middle of September. From now until November we have six weeks to ponder these things as they unfold. Question for farmers: What causes a bull to fear?

SA aside, as Getty advised about getting rich, "Sell when everybody is
buying and buy when everybody is selling. As most Kitcoites of any persuasion would agree, everybody and his brother is selling.

For whoever is interested there's wealth of information & reviews of each country's economics
For example here's the Japan review of July 25, 1997
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pn/1997/PN9719.HTM

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of unique articles and massive financial coverage that
Gold-Eagle provides should be proud for this wonderful site.
It's a great acknowledgement of goldbugs and controversial
financial thinkers everywhere. Congratulations to Vronsky
and Westerman for their superb efforts. And my personal
thanks from a resident Kitco "Flake" for their welcome to
the Astrological Investor, and many other pithy and pointed
points of view!

Fears or not, nothing makes a bull sweat more than a tight jersey.

Sorry couldn't resist an old farmers joke after Allen's farmer question.

Looks like the crash has been put on hold again. Big Bill's push for fast track authority to ram through trade deals is a key factor supporting the market in my judgement. Fast track authority in this area would be very beneficial to the multinationals and its approval by Congress could trigger a final blowoff in the big caps. Needless to say, this would not do gold any good at all.

Dow/Gold Ratio 24.69

Looks like the SA golds pulled bullion and the American golds down rather than visa versa. On a more positive note, volume in the American majors has risen sharply in recent weeks. Trading quite heavy today in ABX and NEM in particular.

Donald: ... Sometimes I get all the news I need on the whether report and what I need to know is if wheather or not "they" are going to allow the U.S. dollar to now to fall ( decline is a more pc word ) after supporting it since May, l995 via the purchasing of U.S. Bond by the producing countries. ( My, there was sure a lot in that last sentence. ) : )

Soros fund adviser sees dollar rising to 130
yen at year end
The dollar is expected to rise to 130 yen by the end of the year,
reflecting growing concern that Japan's economic recovery may falter,
Richard Medley told The Nihon Keizai Shimbun in Tokyo Thursday.
The adviser to Soros Fund Management, a hedge fund operated by
international financier George Soros, also hinted at a possibility of
Germany raising its key interest rate as early as October. He said the
country is likely to increase the official discount rate in stages from later
this year through early next year ahead of European monetary union.

Medley does not expect foreign exchange rates to be among the top
issues discussed at the meeting of finance ministers and central bank
chiefs from the Group of Seven industrialized countries in Hong Kong on
Saturday.

Although Japan would not like to see the dollar rising above 123 yen in
the near term, the greenback may exceed 125 yen if Japanese economic
prospects worsen further, Medley noted.

With Germany set to lift its key rate, the mark may climb above 70 yen
toward year end, compared with 68 yen now.

September 19, 1997

Dollar ends mixed in nervous trade ahead of G7 meeting

NEW YORK ( Reuter ) - The dollar rose against the Japanese yen after U.S. officials said they would not step up pressure on Japan to reduce its trade surplus at a meeting of industrial powers this weekend.

But against the mark, the dollar slipped amid talk that Germany would raise interest rates soon after Saturday's meeting of leaders of the Group of Seven nations.

Many investors sat out the Friday session for fear of inflammatory statements at the G7 meeting in Hong Kong.

But the dollar gained on the yen after U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin told reporters on a plane en route to Hong Kong that the G7 would not make any dramatic statements about currencies.

On the same flight, Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said the group would not issue any statements specifically addressing Japan's economy.

But the dollar moved off its lows against the mark late in New York trading amid reports that a hedge fund had bought $200 million for marks.

With trading volume extremely light, that single trade quickly pushed the dollar to 1.7750 marks from 1.7700, traders said.

"For most of the day, people played a waiting game ahead of the G7," said Savage. "The price action suggests people were a little nervous."
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/DOLLAR.html

And All: 2 Questions
1 ) Looked at from isolation only considering the exchange effect, what would an increase in the dollar ( say130 yen ) do to the price of gold and oil. Would a decrease ( say 105yen ) translate into the converse?
2 ) What would the market reaction be to either scenario in #1?
I hope these are not stupid questions, but even if they are I would appreciate all answers: ) I confess, I am no Soros.

September 19, 1997
Man gets prison term for cheating Towers victims

NEW YORK ( Reuter ) - The man who was supposed to help thousands of victims who were defrauded through Steven Hoffenberg's bankrupt Towers Financial Corp. was sentenced to 61/2 years in prison for cheating the same investors, prosecutors said Friday.

He sold more than $450 million in fraudulent notes and bonds to investors and used some of the money he collected from later investors to pay interest owed to the earlier ones.

Hoffenberg pleaded guilty to the conspiracy and fraud charges in April 1995 and was sentenced this year to 20 years in prison.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/TOWERS.html

BYRON: Perhaps you saw my post several days ago about Andrew Card. He is the head of the automobile manufacturers lobby. Those people want the dollar to fall ( although they prefer to express in yen rising terms ) . I will see if I can find that post for you.

( Byron: These guys have a lot of clout. The UAW probably agrees with this also )
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/97/09/15/c_f_gm_y0_1.html

Big drop in Dubai silver exports to India.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/18/z0009_82.html

September 19, 1997
Canada native groups welcome Voisey's Bay delay

TORONTO, Sept 19 ( Reuter ) - A Canadian aboriginal group embroiled in a legal dispute over the Voisey's Bay nickel deposit on Friday welcomed Inco Ltd 's decision to delay the huge mining project by at least one year.

"We're glad to see that Inco has finally realized its original schedule is unrealistic," the Labrador Inuit Association ( LIA ) said
in a statement.

Meanwhile, economists said on Friday the postponement of such a huge project would make it harder for Newfoundland's economy to struggle out of ******recession.**********

"It's not good news that the project is delayed because the Newfoundland economy is in *******recession right now******** and this is one of the projects they were looking toward to have the economy improve in the future," said Michael Rao, an analyst with Dominion Bond Rating Service.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/CANADA-NATIVE-GROUPS.html

American Automobile Manufacturers Assoc. position on trade with Japan and Korea.
http://www.aama.com/trade/trade.html

More on trade issues and open markets.
http://washingtonpost.com:80/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-09/19/073l-091997-idx.html

Nomercy and Donald. I have been submitting these posts. Not as a competitor. I suspect, that maybe others may have a problem with these
many posts.

Yet, in defense of the many posts of myself. The Information that is available is huge. The difficulty is, what is reasonable, and of positive
value.

It would be better if we could find the information, before it hits the news media. Maybe find groups, that are on the net, that have positive
information. I am suggesting that the news media, is attempting to
provide an information over load, to discourage those of us that are
trying to find the right information balance. Difficult to know the
movements of these Central Banks and Monoploly Corporations. They have
many army's of suits, doing their bidding, for wages, and a pension plan.

Yes, we may have to find the so called kooks ( eccentric screwball )
many great idea's, have been perfected by branded, but not always kooks. eh! Take care.

All: Arafat may be seriously ill. Successor sought. http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100e.htm

Savage: Correlation between the Pound and silver is -0.114, and is significant ( p=0.001 ) .

6PAK: You have great posts. I am an economic history buff. You seem to be typing things from reference books. That is hard work but I do it at times myself. Do you think we should cut back? I really was just kidding Nomercy today. It is not a competition to me.

John I also agree that the lease rate is important, I do not know enough
about this aspect of investing to be of help. I sure will be interested
in the work that you, have proposed, between you, and WW.

I also think your comments as quoted here are in the true spirit of what
makes this site great. In addition, your take on how to co-operate with
others to address an issue of importance. Great comments. Take Care eh!

" with one proviso. YOU Dont sling left wing crapola at me and I dont shovel right wing garbage at you. OK ? Im so interested in this Ill even work with a LAWYER." : ) : ) : ) : ) : ) It don't get better than that eh!

Do not mis-understand. I do not believe you or nomercy are competing.
I also am a history buff. And also, as you, want to share. Yes, I consider your posts are of considerable importance.

No, I do not expect you to cut back. I am, as you, questioning how others
consider our posts. To little, to much, balance eh! Thanks, Take Care

Paradigm Lost? By Steve Roach
http://www.lp-llc.com/cents/roach.shtml

What do you wanna bet she's got a face like a foot? http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news101b.htm

Bart: Careful about changing the "From:date - To:date" option so early in the evening. It's still only 5PM on the Left Coast.

Foreign Central Banks are selling T-Bonds to support their currencies and other news and opinion.
http://lp-llc.com/cents/cooper.shtml

Today the 19th of September is the anniversary date of the first hot air balloon lifting off from French soil in 1789 ( 98? ) , and aboard this first flight were a pig a duck and a goat: times haven't changed much have they?

I think things are moving forward on this site.

Money supply growth has exploded in the past year; yet there is no sign of inflation. What is going on? Some attempts to answer.
http://www.lp-llc.com/cents/jones.shtml

Donald: Yes, Foreign Central Bank Selling ( of bonds ) . Now that's the type of story I like. Keep that search button going. Meanwhile, the library is closing shortly, so I out of here.... My gut feeling is that the "big meeting" in Hong Kong is going to turn out like today's Triple Witching, a lot of "sound and fury, signifying nothing". ( that's not orignal with me. ) Nite all.

Spot Gold had it's LOWEST weekly closing today in over 10 years!

For the week gold and silver were down & T-Bonds and S&P's are up.

Silver stocks are UP over 1 Million oz's today.

Crude Oil went down again today with no sign's of life.

Global Market Strategist Advisory Service
12 September 1997

Summary

For second quarter, U.S. banks reported twin records. They
reported record high earnings; and they reported record high
credit card delinquencies ( well over 5%. ) Either of these reports
is a story in itself with multiple implications for the future of
financial markets.

PPI news today included the first gain for the overall number
since last December and the first gain in the core rate since last
May. However, the figures of 0.1% overall and 0.3% core rate
are not enough by themselves to cause the Fed to train its big
guns on the economy to bring it to its knees. Nothing in the world
has changed enough to cause the varied group of deflationary
influences to start dissipating. The vaunted El Nino effect, which
is billed as the worst of the century, will undoubtedly play a role
in unexpected surpluses and shortages of crops in different parts
of the world over the next nine to twelve months as weather
patterns change abruptly and completely away from the
traditional. However, even as severe as this phenomenon may
prove to be, it is unlikely to exert a significant offset to the
wholeheartedly deflationary global forces which are presently in
play.

Our forecast earlier this month included a prediction that the
dollar would rise in the near term back over 1.80 and possibly to
as high as 1.84, however so far that is not happening. Patterns
are still in place, however, and we are loath to back down just
yet on the prediction. Accompanying such a move would be
stronger sterling and relatively stronger yen, particularly versus
DM-bloc currencies. Bonds have not reacted negatively to
today's PPI report, and they could improve from present levels,
with the possibility of sharp improvement if CPI reported next
week is in line with or possibly a little better than expectations of
0.3% and 0.2% levels for the overall and core rate respectively.

Martha Eden

This site seems unnaturally quiet tonight. Did something happen that I have missed?

To Selby in Toronto: look at the price of gold. there is nothing
to talk about.

6pak @ 19:26; all your posts are interesting, especially those providing insight on the how powerful interests duped the US public to accept the financial straight jacket of fractional reserve banking. IMO, those suits control the whole political spectrum and the are reason why every North American non-suiter, be they rich or poor are/will be further effected.

Agree with your comment:
"I am suggesting that the news media, is attempting to provide information overload to discourage those of us that are trying to find the right information balance."

Stopped watching CNBC as a regular a year ago. When the crap gets high and the shovel is broke, one has to head for the hills.

Something is wrong I can't access the various postings HELP!!!!!

Glenn:

Agree that along with gold, crude has been in the doldrums for some time. But unlike AU mining shares, international oil producers [xon, mob etc.] seem to be enjoying the good fortune of virtually all other segments of the equities market. What's your take on this. Is oil now viewed as more precious than precious metal?

Glenn: With all due respect you mention that silver stocks are up 1 mill oz. They have fallen about 50 mill oz over the last few months so why the emphasis on the increase.

Ron: It may be significant but it still leaves 89% of the variance unexplained. I wouldn't bet the farm on that relationship.

Received a flier for the Dr. Gary North newsletter today; his publisher showed a chart depicting that the average citizen in Japan has a bit over 8 times the savings of the average American.

With Japans banks in reputed trouble, one would think that the Japanese would get that money out of the banks?

That is if these savings are really in the banks, or that they haven't pledge their savings against cheap loans to buy US interest bearing instruments.

Maybe their public is in a catch 22?

On the other hand the Japanese seem to be logical people and "I really wonder" if, their banks are in such dire straigts. That is, why would they be keeping their money in the banks, if this were the case?

If Soros' Funds are correct and the yen falls to 130 to the dollar; and "my warped logic" says the dollar is supported by foreign purchases of US treasuries; wouldn't simple reasoning say that Japan should sell 20% of their US Treasuries and buy gold with funds? Why let chump change effect the probable hell that is coming? It seems to me that the Soros article was constructed to keep the dollar high.

IMHO; the dollar is also supported by US citizen over spending with credit card debt, creating rosy economic reports and false inflation figures.

IDT: Nor I. Savage asked what the correlation was, not what to do with it. It's interesting to me though that the relationship exits at all. Just for fun, I'm writing a program now to see just what one's long term profit/loss would have been ( my data goes from 8/92 to 6/97 ) had you tried to use this particular indicator. Good point, IDT.

To all Kitcoites -- this is my first posting
I may have a clue to the mystery of the LBMA 1000ton/day gold trading mystery. I just purchased a book titled "Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands", Ed P Krugman and M Miller, sponsored by the CEPR and NBER, pub 1991 by Cambridge Univ. Press . What is remarkable about this book is that it is a summary of articles about placing a currency on the gold standard. A quick scan of the rather involved text and mathematics reveals the following:
1 ) A discussion of how to "soften" the relation of a currency to a linked gold standard, 2 ) The difference between going on a gold standard when the citizens of a country know what is happening, and when they don't.
It is also interesting to note that much reference is made to placing England on the gold standard, with reference to what happened in 1925, and with the abortive attempt to enter the EMS in the early 90's. I believe one of Vronsky's contributors alluded to the LBMA trading being of sufficient volume for gold to be effectively used as a currency. Wouldn't it be interesting if some of the world's central banks ( or only England ) had secretly moved to a gold standard? Perhaps the EMU has a secret competitor. Could A Greenspan be one of the "architects"?

Today was the 'Triple Witch'. For those of you who are unaware of what this means; It is the simultaneous expiration of futures, stock index options, and stock options. BTW,the futures also includes stock index futures, such as the S&P 500, etc. When this event occurs, strategies used in options and futures trading are unwound. This generally has the effect of dramatically increasing stock trading volumes as the underlying assets of the derivatives are settled. Translation, don't read too much in to the volume figures for the 'Majors' in the XAU or HUI. Remember, 3/4 of the XAU is made up of just THREE stocks. They are ABX, NEM, and HM.

WW: With no disrespect to Glenn; he reported a few days ago that he was short calls on silver. Probably talking his book as we all would do in similar circumstances.

Man, what a relief! I just finished reviewing the day's postings. I had almost forgotten what a pleasure this site can be when everyone is working together in harmony in an attempt to make some sense out of the never-ending mystery of the precious metals market.

It seems we can expect the gremlins to strike without notice, at any time. It takes days/weeks to get rid of them, they do great damage, and many valued contributors don't have the patience to ride it out. It doesn't seem fair for Bart to have to police this site. I would guess that he feels uncomfortable in that role. With Bart's approval, and the support of the "regulars" ( I'm not really a regular ) , I'd like to propose that we become self-policing. One way this could be done would be that we "elect" a 3-person team for this purpose. These 3 would correspond via e-mail when malicious posters appear, and upon unanimous agreement, would recommend action to Bart. Bart, of course, can choose to ignore the recommendation, but my guess is that he won't.

My choices would be Donald, Ted, and EB. I would trust them to have the right balance of tolerance and discipline ( EB?? :- ) )

Its sad that we have to resort to something like this, but I think it is clear to all how much damage can be done to this wonderful site when lightning strikes.

What do you think?

From my point of view, platinum is the best play here. If you want to talk about stock volume... SWC has picked up in volume on this latest drop in its' price. This is indicative of accumulation. SWC is NOT optionable and I don't believe it is in any index. Does this mean that SWC won't go down further? NO. Is there 'support' for the price in this area? Check the chart for yourself and come to your own conclusion. Just food for thought.

Then again, PL futures is a more direct way to play the metal. Who knows what bone head moves still lurk in managments minds over there... Then again, who am I to criticize? A mere shareholder?

Good night all......

I tip my hat to Mr Puetz for his courageous linking of the Sept 16,97 Lunar eclipse to a possible market crash. I have been studying the relation of the planets with the behavior of the stock market for some time now, and recently marked all lunar eclipses from 1920-1997 on a graphical display of the Dow Jones index. One sees the following: approximately 1/3 of all of the lunar eclpises are within several days of an intermediate-to-long term up or downtrend in the market. This is well above a random correlation. The direction of the trend must be determined by the investor. I implore those of you who think financial Astrology is useless to repeat for yourself what I have done with a $14 ephemeris and 70 years of historical DJ data.
If any of you have access to extensive daily gold stock/bullion historical data, I would expect you would see a similar pattern, except that the times of the lunar eplipse TP's and their direction would be different.

Panda: Don't have the chart in front of me but I seem to recall that SWC had pretty good support around 19 1/2, with 52 week low around 16. .... Now if they just hadn't sold forward as much as they did.