Thanks, I needed that.

TDotson -- Thanks for the Sir James vs George Soros! You said it just right! Soros is nothing but a NWO stooge. His actions to help undermine currencies, though 'they' are stupid in being paper, never-the-less, are to further the 'boot' print on these 'sovereign' nations. IMF controls are for all intensive purposes the power of the jack-boot. Sorry if I use that term a lot, but if the 'boot' fits.... These countries must somehow begin to 'just say no', whatever it takes! It's not like 'borrowing' is any kind of deal anyway!

Lurker: You are right. Please see my more recent E-Mail. I apologize for doubting you. You see I did read "The Trap" by Sir James Goldsmith, and I really did wonder months ago if this was the same individual. There is still the possibility he was coerced. I am more than a little frightened regarding the power of the individuals or groups of individuals that must be manipulating the markets. Sometimes you wonder if it is better to be blissfully ignorant.

George Orwell, where are you?

Lurker: I hope you are right, that the attempt to push down gold is due to a genuine desire to prevent worldwide catastrophe. What puzzles me is that if you push something too far one way, the rebound tends to be worse. I believe W.D. Gann said that, and I think he's right. If A. Greenspan etal can pull off this miracle without causing gold to skyrocket ( ie seriously inflate the dollar ) my hat is off to him!

Would all of you with a new I.D. number please send $50 registration fee to Nick@Canberra

I wonder if PFE is going to make a bump upward tomorrow?: http://www.yahoo.com/text/headlines/970923/news/stories/pms_1.html http://www.fairlite.com/ocd/medications/zoloft.shtml

Stock prices ( other than precious metals stocks ) are unlikely to drop more than ten percent until after bonds yields have risen. Historically, rates rise for 3 to 6 months before major stock market declines. Can anyone find a significant exception to this pattern in modern North American or European markets? If not, why should this time be different?

Nick, or is it Fake Nick: Tonight we seem to be duplicating ourselves. I don't know if I should send an E-mail to Mike Sheller to ask him have the infinite number of parallel universes converged tonight, and time is unraveling, or just laugh! It always pays to have a sense of humor -- how else do we survive! I will send you $50 dollars worth of money from that Fake universe of your alter ego!

Earl, Byron, Savage, Vronsky, JTFlick: My number joins yours in the Three Twos club, it seems.

To all: Where are these non integer individuals coming from? Fractional universes? Good night everyone -- enough discovery for one day, I think!

JTFlick: Why did your number just change? You lost twos and added a .1

Just posting to see what my new number will be. ( Oooh...Maybe I can influence the random number generator with my psychic powers!!! ) OK..OK...Here goes...

WOW!! Lookie there! Number 250297. That's EXACTLY the one I had in mind! Now if only I could do the same thing with the prices of metals.

Auroelf and/or ID#255218: I told Bart about this. I'm hoping it's something he can fix, and not something we need Mike Sheller's help about.

I am having trouble 2-nite with my puter. And what a night to happen...

Hey 364147 - There is quite the struggle in the west. Giants and Doggers. W/W. Wagers?? Doggers are chokin' BIG!

Allen - Are you tryin' to soil my questionable name?? EB says NO to fakeouts ;- )

George - thanks, You are a true gentleman. Keep on!

Miro - Warm and Sunny is MY forecast. I'll be at Beserkeley on SAT. CAL vs USC. Look me up...Look for #255190.1. There will ONLY be 68,000 people. I'll be wearing Blue and Gold ;- )

Ghost-Boy - You and everyone else sold today. Too soon?? I'm sure you held some back. Can you say 4-4-2 esta noche??

And now... I can't forget about my sweet, sweet currencies. It has been a traders dream of late. I love those choppy markets. JY/BP/DM... you do me proud ;-$$ ) Now shall I sell tomorrow or...hmmmmmmmmmmm...ain't this exciting...oh my!

away...to fix the puter
EB$

Just thought I'd drop in to get the mark of the beast ( although I'll probably end up with one or two more depending on where I log in from ) . NICK: would that be $50 AU or US?

There is only one scenario that allows all the paper to crash AND the metals to crash too! That's where ALL the demand goes into pure survival, with hardly any regard for the following days. This is where a series of major catastrophies occur leaving even the following days survival in doubt. This is where people will be looking for food, fuel, guns, ammo, clothing, and a good place of protection. I'll leave it to your own minds as to what could possibly cause such a scenario, But I can envision at least a couple of interesting 'possibilities'. But aside from that, the metals 'day' should be arriving 'soon'. I'll let 'soon' mean the time when the 'mad Genie' turns his attention to the one place He hasn't visited his 'deeds' upon yet. Even Greenie and Rubin both, along with ALL their 'comrads', won't be able to stop one certain day from arriving.

RJ: "Conflate" is a pretty nifty word, isn't it? It's one of those words that rattles around in my tiny brain just waiting for an opportune moment to fall out. Actually, you got me wondering if I'd used it right, and when I couldn't find it in my little pocket Webster's I got worried. Had to go downstairs and consult the big 12 volume Oxford to find it. I see that I was correct, though. Hope you can find a good home for it in some of your writings.
You're right about PL. Sold some yesterday and today. Actually made a profit!!!!! Unbelievable! Silver looks good, what with all the warehouse stocks slowly but surely disappearing.

Miro - Sorry. 255190 = 229561.1 . I got confused by Allen ( USA ) . Allen, you Bad-Boy!

Donald - Who popped off?? I'm sure you will get us some good news this a.m.

away..to watch YEN blast off...
EB$

DR. MIRO: If you're going to be in LA, look me up. My real e-mail is up above and, if you want, contact me and we can set up to at least meet by phone. I always love meeting real Kitcoites! Weather should be hot and slight muggy ( unusual for LA ) ( the muggy part ) . No substantial word on the approach of the hurricane, although judging by the last one, there isn't much to worry about. All the best!

Hmm...There MUST be some cosmic significance to this number. There seems to be an unusually high number of different people visiting the site tonight. Maybe the ID# lure is too great. Or...maybe it signals interest in gold?! Ommmmmmmm.

YELLOW JACKET: What a wonderful number - 237137 ! If only I'd have thought of it when I was generating psychic vibrations!!! Wanna trade?

Thought I'd better try a quick post so I can find out what this numbering business is all about

Bart: I couldn't resist one last post -- did we block out 666?

From now on, your Kitco number is...

A little scenario for all of you out there with "dry powder" waiting for the BIG upmove in PM's. I have a feeling a lot of people will miss the boat if it leaves the wharf too quickly. The psychology goes something like this:

( gold 332 ) "This is not the REAL move up. I'm being manipulated again. Must be A.G. or Rubin up to their old tricks.

( gold 340 ) "I'll buy in just as soon as the central banks start selling--on the reaction!!"

( gold 360 ) "XXXX!!- where's that damned reaction!! Why did't I buy when it was 320 for all those months. I'm NEVER gonna be any good at this investing stuff!!"

( gold 380 ) "Double XXXX!!!!- it'll be 500 by tomorrow ( that's what my broker says ) . I'm buying RIGHT NOW"

( gold 360 ) "There's that reaction. How much can I get for my car? Where's the kid's piggy bank? I'm buyin' more!!!

( gold 340 ) " Uh oh!! Australia must be selling again. What's the missus gonna say when she finds out I've hocked everything we own. Geez, I'll never be any good at this!!"

( gold 320 ) "X#%X*X&*%#- I'm a total failure in life. Serves me right--I'm just no good. Gonna be 250 by next week. I'm sellin' it all NOW!!"

( gold 340 ) Geez, why did I sell at 320. I'll just wait for the reaction and buy more if there's any money left over from the divorce proceedings.

( gold 500 ) "Where's that #*&%#*#* reaction??!!

My wife says it better add up to a 7.

Why would Greenspan keep the price of gold down? Gad, what a
question.

I have a choice between certain death from a firing squad, or
choosing what's behind door #1. Like, there's not a whole lot
of thinking involved here.

I am reminded of a Japanese trader that I saw on television several
years ago....

Interviewer: "But... didn't you know the market was too high?"

Trader: "Yes, we did, but somehow... we thought something would
save us."

Which reminds me of my favorite quote from Bill Gates. When asked
about a possible stock drop due to anti-trust investigation, Gates
replied,

"Do you think I care?"

But Nick, we already HAVE a big move "up"...in Platinum! Now I'm waiting for another good move in silver, go SSC... ( Is this the REAL LGB or an imposter...shhhhhh..... different number than before? )

Gates DOESN'T care.. about anything but ruling all the PC's of the world and having his feelers into every living room in America

STRAD: Sorry, no trade unless you can come up with something good like 269692.

Bart, I like this new concept, and once again I commend you for a wonderful site...and all your efforts and tolerance from even the ocassional "annoying" poster ( not that I would know anyone like that.. ; )

However, as you can see by my "beta" testing.....

There may be one or two minor kinks to work out.. ( Will the REAL LGB please rise? )

Bart - How come RJ rates a 4 and I only got a 2, just one of the pack. OK, a few 3's. Then there is JTFlick with his 5. Really Bart. You really know how to hurt a guy!

Actually, come to think of it, I never posted it here, but Gates
is another good argument for a Crash. Last time I checked factually,
the guy was carrying $2B in cash. I saw something recently that
said this up to $4B now.

That says a lot. That says Bill Gates could probably run Microsoft
for a SOLID YEAR, with ZERO income, and still outlast any
competition.

Here's a scenario to play around with.

Assume the Crash is precipitated by a fallout in the Information
Industry. Layoffs of IT workers from Intel, MS, etc. Wages for
information workers drop sharply.

Now. Compare.. heck, maybe I *did* post this, after all. Compare
the hardware/software industry to the biotech. They are, after all,
predominately about the manipulation of information. Biotech is
on the verge of ramping up Big-Time.

A sharp rise in available, experienced labor would push Biotech,
don't you think? Under my proposed scenario, MS/Intel play the
part of the Railroad Barrons just past their peak, with Biotech
playing the part of the Electricity Industry.

Nick #386245 G'day, your scenario is very close to a nightmarememory of mine. ;- )

From time to time I like to re-read old bullish Gold Newsletters from a few years ago, you know, when the Dow was testing 5,000 and illuminati were looking back at 1929 for comparisons -- and predicting Dow blow-off and a surge in price of gold to -- heh, pick a number from $450 to $5,000.00 by , heh, pick a date..
Always hard to keep things in perspective, cos its so hard to take a few steps back. ;- )

El Dorado, re your 01:04, That's what I love about this site, all the cheerful optimistic scenarios for us to consider!

At least you're just one number DJ, look at me, Mine varies so I'm stuck with the schizophrenia that everyone accused me of!

If you don't like your number, change your handle. : )

Even though the "trend is your friend" and their hasn't been a lot volume
in the gold stocks I gotta say some of those charts are
beginning to look good.In particular RYO appears ready to rally.There's
no confirmation ,but still...

See? Now you have hard evidence that others have been posting foul posts in my name all along..... four different numbers all being "LGB"

Hmmm. Maybe it's only keyed on the first letter?

Yes "Who", that's one solution, though I prefer to just psychically influence my number to change arbitrarily

I havn't posted for a long time and I just want to get my new #

The number is synthesized from a software code in Netscape &
the handle?

Great. Bart. It needs to be the first nine digits of IP
address. : ) Either that, or pull out the serial number from
the bios. : )

Bart--Have you run a check on your system to know if our ID # will be saved after 12/31/99? I don't want to get TOO attached to it, and then "POOF"!

Anyone beat a full house? :- ) )

Wasn't it Livermore who loved living his days by numbers? Maybe this
is what the market needed. Go gold.

Earl 20:55 ROTFL ;- ) )

Test

ID#'s makes me worry.

Jack is worried about IDs but I'm the paranoid nut.

Maybe Bart wants to track your movements. Did he write a
cookie in your Netscape?! : )

Jeez. Nope, I don't own a Gold Cup, but I got a first-year
HK-P7. : ) The kind WITHOUT the heat shield over the trigger. : )

What a dead night. Come on, Jack, give me some input about biotech.

Gates. Cash. ICOS. Leroy Hood. Cal Tech, gene sequencing,
something.

And I can't understand why everyone is down on Soros. He's
probably doing more, singlehandly, to keep paper credible than
anyone on earth.

Who else would blow up a country for debasing their currency?

Isn't this a GOOD thing for gold?

Now where have I seen that before???
Recently some kind soul offered some charts comparing tops in past markets, S&P daily in 1987, and S&P weekly in 1973. If one compares the current Dow with those, there is a stange similarity.

Now lets carry similar patterns a little further, as Bill Buckler was kind enough to do recently. Where have I seen this one before?
Comparing the down move in gold, weekly, from 1987 December, to the bottom made in 1988-9, we see some similarity again, to the present. The final leg of the former has the bottom approximately half the time period as it's last leg. In other words bottom to bottom weeks of the last leg 37 weeks, and bottom to bottom, before breaking up 19 weeks. Presently bottom to bottom 22 weeks in the last leg, and 12 weeks making a possible bottom, this week starting the first leg of a strong move up.

Let's carry this scenario a little further. I see the possiblity of a correction in the markets while PMs move up sharply. Then beginning of 1998 the opposite takes place, the markets once again resume their up move, either testing their present highs or going to new highs, we'll see, while the PMs make a top and test these levels, or the bottom, before the next leg up in our new bull for PMs. Is that too much BULL?

You do say much and none of it is important to me; so get off my case.

Hey Bart and the rest, I was dealt a pair of sixes, and I put up my ante and I want to draw 4 new numbers ( cards ) , before going on, OK??
Got to be fair, right?

So sorry, in my haste to post I didn't see the two pair, it's 'cause Aurator got the full house on the first draw. That's what upset me. I'll just buy one and it better be a six!!

Eldorado I got a feeling a quake is whats going to get the markets dropping just take a look at how the Nikkei reacted to the Kobi quake,
it dropped thousands of points at the offset and it took a year or so to recover the nexted one could be the Biggy? Maybe Mount Rainer blows its top and floods the Pacific Northwest and causes a big global plume and screws the weather up for the nexted couple years. Things could get nasty without some manmade catastrophe causing the uncertainty.. I'm now a branded person like the rest of you people!!

Look, Jack. You drew my ire with your ill-conceived REPOSTING
of the Congressional addresses. Been there, done that.

I didn't post anything the FIRST time, now did I?

Come on, tell the truth. When was the last time you really
contacted them? Called them ON the phone?

Didn't think you'll really run into someone who has DONE it,
did you? : )

Reify G'day, just lucky i guess;- ) .. I wonder if Auric wants to play :- ) ) ) )

It's nothing personal, Jack, but me, I got tired of using a model
that didn't predict reality very well.

After all, if 75% of the call-ins to Congress are anti-NAFTA, well,
then, YOUR model says that NAFTA won't get passed.

My NEW model, the model that says Congress is bought and paid for,
accurately predicts the outcome of NAFTA and GATT, doesn't it?

Puetz's model say the market will crash. Not gonna happen. MY
model says that Greenspan will burn bond investors and reboot the
economy one more time, before blaming the whole collapse on "Y2K".

IRS Hearings? Forget it. Nothing is going to happen. Because it's
about CASH from seizures. All the IRS stuff will fade into the
background. Just like Waco. I have *already* learned my lesson,
I am more interested in being CORRECT than JUSTIFIED these days.

Got it? IRS hearings? NOTHING.

Campaign hearings? NOTHING. Will quietly fade away.

Aurator, re your 02:15, I got some of my old newsletters out after your post. It DO make interetin readin don't it?? DOW to crash before year end! Gold to skyrocket to $3,000!!! Inflation! Phony paper being helf up by phony policies!! ( Pick a year, any year...any year after 1980... )

I now is confused-- droppped my last hand did I?

Sorry about all the typo's from my evil twin "LGB", it's late ya know!

WHO CARES: Good point on Bill Gates and the $4 billion in cash being enough to run the business for a year. Not many businesses or individuals can do that. We all should be working toward that objective. However the $4 billion is worthless unless it is safely placed. I presume Gates knows that.

testin'- one-two-chee!

The IMF says there is more bad debt in the Japanese banking system than the Japanese have acknowleged.
http://www.smh.com.au:80/daily/content/970924/business/business1.html

chee-two-one tessin

Testin-One-too-chee!

U.S. personal bankruptcies up 19% to an expected 1,330,000 for 1997.
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970923/business/stories/bankruptcy_1.html

Yen bears are in the lead as losses continue.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/22/z0009_28.html

World Bank prepares loans for countries hurt by El Nino.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/23/z0000_27.html

IMF says new currency crises can not be ruled out.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/22/z0006_z00_3.html

Dollar vs Yen analysis.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/23/z0006_z00_4.html

Words Of Wisdom

"I haven't committed a crime. What I did was fail to comply with the law."
David Dinkins, New York City Mayor, answering accusations that he failed to
pay his taxes.

"They gave me a book of checks. They didn't ask for any deposits."
Congressman Joe Early ( D-Mass ) at a press conference to answer questions
about the House Bank scandal.

"He didn't say that. He was reading what was given to him in a speech."
Richard Darman, director of OMB, explaining why President Bush wasn't
following up on his campaign pledge that there would be no loss of wetlands.

"It depends on your definition of asleep. They were not stretched out. They
had their eyes closed. They were seated at their desks with their heads in a
nodding position."
John Hogan, Commonwealth Edison Supervisor of News Information, responding to
a charge by a Nuclear Regulatory Commission inspector that two Dresden
Nuclear Plant operators were sleeping on the job.

"I didn't accept it. I received it."
Richard Allen, National Security Advisor to President Reagan, explaining the
$1000 in cash and two watches he was given by two Japanese journalists after
he helped arrange a private interview for them with First Lady Nancy Reagan.

"I was a pilot flying an airplane and it just so happened that where I was
flying made what I was doing spying."
Francis Gary Power, U-2 reconnaissance pilot held by the Soviets for spying,
in an interview after he was returned to the US.

"I was under medication when I made the decision not to burn the tapes."
President Richard Nixon

"Smoking kills. If you're killed, you've lost a very important part of your
life."
Brooke Shields, during an interview to become spokesperson for a federal
anti-smoking campaign

"I've never had major knee surgery on any other part of my body."
Winston Bennett, University of Kentucky basketball forward

"I support efforts to limit the terms of members of Congress, especially
members of the House and members of the Senate."
Vice-President Dan Quayle

"Outside of the killings, Washington has one of the lowest crime rates in the
country." Mayor Marion Barry, Washington, D.C.

"Sure, it's going to kill a lot of people, but they may be dying of something
else anyway." - Othal Brand, member of a Texas pesticide review board, on
chlordane

"Are you any relation to your brother Marv?"
Leon Wood, New Jersey Nets guard, to Steve Albert, Nets TV commentator

"Beginning in February 1976 your assistance benefits will be discontinued...
Reason: it has been reported to our office that you expired on January 1,
1976."
Letter from the Illinois Department of Public Aid

"The Holocaust was an obscene period in our nation's history... this
century's history.... We all lived in this century. I didn't live in this
century."
Dan Quayle, then Indiana senator and Republican vice-presidential candidate
during a news conference in which he was asked his opinion of the Holocaust

"In the early sixties, we were strong, we were virulent..."
John Connally, Secretary of Treasury under Richard Nixon, in an early
seventies speech, as reported in a contemporary "American Scholar"

"Rotarians, be patriotic! Learn to shoot yourself."
Chicago Rotary Club journal, "Gyrator"

"The streets are safe in Philadelphia. It's only the people who make them
unsafe."
Frank Rizzo, ex-police chief and mayor of Philadelphia

"I've always thought that underpopulated countries in Africa are vastly
underpolluted."
Lawrence Summers, chief economist of the World Bank, explaining why we should
export toxic wastes to Third World countries

"The crime bill passed by the Senate would reinstate the Federal death
penalty for certain violent crimes: assassinating the President; hijackiing
an airliner; and murdering a government poultry inspector."
Knight Ridder News Service dispatch

"After finding no qualified candidates for the position of principal, the
school board is
extremely pleased to announce the appointment of David Steele to the post."
Philip Streifer, Superintendent of Schools, Barrington Rhode Island

"The doctors X-rayed my head and found nothing."
Dizzy Dean, explaining how he felt after being hit on the head by a ball in
the 1934 World Series

MIKE SHELLER: Are you filling in for Tort this morning? He is going to have a problem beating that list.

morning all

Funny thing, the news, has anyone else here ever been mis-quoted? It gives one a different slant on the fourth estate.

And then I found this little gem ;- )

"Gold looks ready to explode."
James Turk

"*Much if not all of the waiting is over* ( orig italics ) . In other words, with each passing day we get closer to that moment when the long awaited rally finally begins, and more importantly. I believe that our patience is about to be richly rewarded. Gold looks ready to break through the $400 level that has been its nemesis for so long and then explode upward in a frenzy of new investment buying and panic short covering....."
Gold Newsletter October 1995.

What happens when yesterday's news is also today's news? When October 1997 looks like October 1929 looks like October 1979, doesn't anyone remember all those other Octobers....when there were no crashes, just lazy winds and falling leaves, candle-light pianos...

I feel a song coming on.

Take it away Mike..:- )

I liked my full house better. But if we're going for vanity numbers, may I reserve
888555
please?
BTW NZ has had a bubble market in vanity plates.Will hunt up details and post..

My number this morning is ( see above )

And it now is ( see above )

Mike Sheller: This morning there is only one me -- so far. Perhaps we don't need your help after all!

Dollar Plunges as Sakakibara Says Impact of G-7 Accord Strong

The dollar plunged against the yen, after a key Japanese Finance Ministry official said the Group of
Seven accord last weekend will send a strong message to markets. Eisuke Sakakibara, Japan's
vice finance minister of international affairs, said the G-7 agreement on currencies reached in Hong
Kong is a ``strong message on the yen and dollar,'' suggesting that the accord supports a stronger
yen, Jiji Press reported. Sakakibara was implying that Japan may sell dollars for yen to keep the
dollar from rising, said Yoichi Itoh, the general manager of the treasury department at Sumitomo
Trust and Banking Co.

Any thoughts on whether the 3-9 % mark-up on the US Mint new
Liberty Platinum coins is a good deal or not? Should we load
up on these or stick with gold and junk silver?

ELDORADO: It wouldn't hurt to load up on guns, ammo, storable
food ( MREs, etc ) , etc. just in case. They can always be used,
even without an emergency, but they can't always be got when
there is an emergency. Besides, MREs are pretty tasty nowadays.
Guns can be good collectibles, hold value fairly well, and last
forever ( as does ammo ) .

West German Sept. CPI Down Preliminary 0.3%, Up 1.8% in Year

Consumer prices in Western Germany fell 0.3 percent in the month to mid-September and were up
1.8 percent from a year earlier, the Federal Statistics Office said in a preliminary report. The
inflation rate was lower than expected before the release of state reports, though analysts
subsequently cut their forecasts. Economists polled by Bloomberg News had originally expected
prices to fall at a monthly rate of 0.1 percent and a yearly rate of 2.0 percent.

A sampling of last month's automotive industry profiles included the
following significant developments:

* The government of Vietnam has licensed over 20 foreign-backed companies
specializing in the manufacture of auto parts with a total capital investment
of US$200 million.

* The Chinese government plans to invest US$12 billion through the year
2000 to develop its eight primary car and mini-car manufacturers.

* Since liberalization of the Indian automotive industry in 1991, twelve
foreign manufacturers have opened operations in the country.

* In The Philippines, a Malaysian-Filipino joint venture plans to export
cars to Mexico and Panama next year in a move the company hopes will earn a
five percent share of the market worth US$140 million.

* In Thailand, the turmoil over its currency has had a mixed impact on the
auto industry, with exports receiving a boost from the devaluation, but local
sales declining due to decreased demand for vehicles.

* A survey in the PRC showed that people are becoming increasingly brand-
conscious in car-buying, with Mercedes Benz and Daewoo singled out as the
best-known foreign brands.

"Happy is the man that findeth wisdom and getteth understanding. For the merchandise of it is better than the merchandise of silver, and the gain thereof than fine gold."
proverbs ( 3:13-14 )
How's that for scrip-sure Mike Sheller? ;= )

Right, that's it, I'm the ultimate contrary indicator.

I came across that bible quote while looking again at Stephen Fay's The Great Silver Bubble" aka "Beyond Greed". I was looking for a reference to Jerome Smith, who in 1972 wrote a book called "Silver Profits in the 70's" and came across the above bon mot. Can anyone shed any light on JEROME SMITH?

I have been posting so much negativity about gold, I can hardly believe myself, me, a gold bug for 15 years.. now no longer... lick your finger, stick it in the air... test the wind, .... when the last gold.. oh no..
;- ) ) Is it golden harvest time?

Could it be that SEC 4 and 144 insider sales data, shown on the Net for
the whole world to see, is the trigger that sets off fear and implodes
Goldilocks?

Downward pressure on lead and zinc prices. Impact on silver?
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/23/y0023_z00_22.html

To all: Could we have a short term drop in commodity prices, due to decreased worldwide demand? As I recall, not long ago copper headed south recently. The gold stocks tend to follow commodity prices.
Of course, I think this downturn in gold stocks would not last long!

Donald: May it not be the case that some of these o so *Gung Ho* western automakers find themselves nationalised within a few years of factory completion, There is a history of this sort of thing in such places. Such easy targets := )

Aurator: Your handle was well chosen!

Good morning Leland: I thought that the Barron's story on insider trading would hurt Compaq and Dell on Monday but it didn't happen. During a mania people put on the blinders and just keep on buying.

AURATOR: Too many oil wells, too many office buildings, too many auto factories all equal too many loans followed by too many bankruptcies.

Hi Donald - - At what point do you think they'll even lift up a blinder
to peek for an exit?

Aluminum just got cheaper.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/24/y0023_z00_2.html

JTFlick actually, my handle was randomly generated by kitco ;+ ) )
Mike Sheller : Thanks, entire post copied into bon mots file. ;- )

Donald, Yer... overcapacity spells deflation.. hello my precious;;= ) )

LELAND: On balance, market leader insiders are selling now. Buffett seems to be moving out of stocks into bonds along with European fund managers. I am personally aware of one very large private fund that made the move weeks ago. The evidence is starting to mount. My best clue was that there were still copies of last weeks Barron's on the newsstand this Saturday. I see a subtle change in public mood, not fear yet, just weariness. The hula-hoop is starting to slip lower.

Thanks, Donald!! This is the kind of help that makes all of appreciate
you!

California milk prices down 18% from year ago.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/97/09/23/y0012_4.html

AURATOR: Another car factory! Fiat-Russian deal.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/22/y0003_z00_4.html

Would you buy a mutual fund with a 3 to 9% load on the front and then pay said same amount to cash out? Well... that's what your doing in those coins; there's cheaper ways to own physical plat. Who Cares; would that be the 308 variety of HK you own?.. Ooou- eee! hot fingers!

JT de Flick, Salut. :- ) ) ;- ) How is it that your are particular, that is, if you were French you would be known as JT de Flick, and if you were German, why you may be Jt von Flick, or if Dutch, Jt van Flick,i mean how come you have a dot after you sir? you must be a gentleman. How do i get a dot, as in 57172.1? why are you not just 57172?

It is that decimal place, it is so precise..
i is a colonial redneck, & know so little of decimal places :- ) )

Mornin Donald!...Front: That registered letter ( with the stock certificates ) took 17 days to get to New York City...Cape Breton-Montreal- JFK airport-NYC post office ( where it apparently sat for 10 days ) ....NEVER AGAIN!

Mornin 22956.1!!! Look @ that Yen gooooo....119.96 ( -2.06 ) ...Weather:50 degrees+clear skies...Mike Sheller: Good one!!

Donald Excellent!!
Who can tell me the name of the Fiat nationalised by the India Government in the 1950's?
( cos actually I've forgotten ) It's a 70's thing...

Aurator, I remember years ago getting a softcover book by
Jerome Smith in which he made a case for $200 silver by
the mid 1980's. I'm pretty sure I through it away a long
time ago but I do remember putting stock in what he said and
of course being very disappointed as events unfolded.

Who CAres: Is the HK51 the .308 version in full auto?
Does your state allow Machine gun civilian ownership?

These ID numbers are new to me, or I did not notice yesterday.
I am assumimg I will be assigned one automatically by this post.
We will see, Here goes!!!!!

TED, so many misunderstandings. put it down to the fact that you are waking up on the East Coast of the Atlantic, as I fall asleep on the West coast of the Pacific. ( The pacific ain't so peaceful- tho our winter seems as mild as your summer ) .
Never intended your unwitting wager on meltdown, shall be pleased to try to drink you under the table whenever i is back where Globe & Mail, which ain't too shabby is delivered.
My round..;_ ) )

AURATOR: To get a dot first you must be a big shot. Then you just squeeze the "o" and dot it.

General: Thank you re Jerome Smith. Please post any rememberances as breaking news here. The past, the present and the future are having a meeting at kitco, i think ;= )

aurator to bed, Gum Sarn gettin closer!

Good morning Ted: Do you have palm trees at Cape Breton? We are just 48F this morning. Watch out for coconuts.

...good morning all...an article from Financial Times....S.Africa's gold mining costs $318 U.S.
Fin Times says half of world's gold mines unprofitable
Tue 23 Sept 97
The Financial Times of London reports in its Tuesday edition that nearly
half of the world's gold mines are unable to generate an accounting profit
at current gold prices, according to the Gold Fields Mineral Services
consultancy. Mining reporter Kenneth Gooding notes that Gold Fields chief
executive Stewart Murray says he finds it hard to imagine that hedging by
producers will continue to impact the market for very much longer at the
kind of tonnages seen recently, unless there is a meaningful recovery in
the price. In its latest gold market update, Gold Fields estimates that
forward sales and option hedging by producers added 192 tonnes to gold
supply in the first half of this year, whereas not one tonne was made
available in this way during the first half of 1996. The review shows that
South Africa was the highest cost producer in the first half of this year,
with cash costs of US$318 an ounce, followed by Australia at US$272, the US
at US$222 and Canada at US$221.

Mornin Aurator.....ya better be wearin a crash helmet when ya try ta drink this dude under de table....and de Globe+Mail don't get delivered to my neighborhood....gotta drive ta Sydney ( 30 minutes ) ta get it....that's what I GET for livin out in the country...eh!!....

OUCH!....

Malaysia says ultra-rich countries are the problem. He wants a railroad
to link all central Asian countries.
http://www.rferl.org:80/nca/features/1997/09/F.RU.970922143149.html

JTFlick - "they" ( ominous organ music ) will atempt to "pull it off" without gold skyrocketing by softly enticing ( forcing ) everyone to an electronic funds system. For example, consider the following EFT already in place & use:

1 ) Welfare users in Texas get a "Star Card" to purchase food at our grocery stores via an electronic debit to their "welfare account". Purpose: introduce the poor to EFT.

2 ) Social Security payments to be ALL made electronically by 1998. Purpose: Introduce the elderly to EFT.

3 ) Coke machines & petrol pumps readily accepting creidt cards. Purpose: Introduce the terminaly lazy to EFT.

4 ) Nearly every retail business, resturant and utility company take credit cards.

5 ) Visa pushing the "Visa Card" on the telly. Purose: Introduce the silly paper check writers to EFT.

6 ) Debit cards being used to replace paper checks. Purose: Introduce the silly paper check writers to EFT.

WHAT is left? Paying your IRS indulgence by Credit card? You can already do that.

Bottom line is that anonymous currency will be ***GONE*** very soon.
What will you do when you attempt to buy something with gold? People are just going to stare at us. "What's that?" "Why, it's gold." "So what. You got a Single Identification Number I can scan off your hand or do you want to starve?"

What will you buy with your gold when the government will have made possession of precious metals a felony like possession of herion or cocaine? ( will, skip cocaine, at least in Texas, if you are a major football star you get off with 2 hours public service and a stern talking to ) .

So, the agenda of those running this world-wide scheme must be something like:

1 ) Discredit any & all physical money at every opportunity.
2 ) Hype paper instruments - show that the gold bugs are losers.
3 ) Provoke a crisis ( Iran, Korea, counterfiting $US, etc. )
4 ) Slow, inexorable pushing of EFT, i.e. the frog
being boiled so slowly he doesn't notice.
5 ) Criminalization of precious metals: "only
a person with something to hide would own gold."
Remember the perverse attention given to Andrew Cunanon
selling gold coins to support his serial killing spree.
6 ) Slowly withdraw all paper currency from circulation - using the
aforementioned counteringfitting excuse and blandly state
that "anyway most Americans use EFT now".
6 ) World control accomplished.
7 ) Welcome to Hell: your every move traced via EFT. Can't buy anything without EFT. Selective lock-out of purchases via governement intervention. Nice, neat electronic database profile of you - imagine the opportunity for effortless blackmail? Makes the White House pilfering of FBI Republican background check files seem irrelevant.

Gold 323.30! Movement at last and in the right direction too!

TED - why i'd be honoured to deliver the G & M on the day i arrive with 2 crash helmets, a metal detector, a slab of steinies and the complete annotated history of Oak Island,.. 'course my thumbs will give me away in the cartography;- ) )
I put in long word like cartography "cos it is a well known fact that australians can only read two syllables at once. :- ) )

This is my number at work ( see above ) .

Aurator -- You have outdone yourself!

Work - #57172.3
Home - #57172.1

Mike Sheller: Help! Parallel universes again!
Donald: Our illustrious leader in Malaysia has some rather expensive ideas. Where will he get the money for all those tunnels for the railroad? I don't think he will get any foreign funds!

Any other suggestions or advice on travelling e-mail?

I've got a laptop and am looking to access the internet/e-mail while on the road. I would like a service that would allow me to: access the single service either at home or on the road, would prefer a 1-800- access number ( for road work ) and is reasonably priced.

Auric - the web TV idea has a lot of merit, but $20 on top of my other internet service fee of $20 seems kind of high. Can you plug a computer into the web-tv ( for cut-n-paste & other internet functions ) ?

Thanks in advance...

Estonia, Poland and Ukraine showing symptoms of currency crisis.
http://www.rferl.org:80/nca/features/1997/09/F.RU.970923151403.html

Spud Master: I like your post! Can we use our fractional numbers as passwords on these new credit cards?
My card will need to accept more than one.
So far our coke machines in my part of the world do not use credit cards. How much do your Cokes cost? Has the runaway inflation hit one end of the world already? I knew "time" was accellerating with the computer revolution, but this is beyond comprehension. Perhaps we need Mike Sheller's advice on another matter!

*seeing that Bart has implemented ID numbers!, impressed by his quick decision and response*

*mumbling to myself* If only I could be that decisive about investing in gold...

*taking my usual seat against the back wall, opening my notebook, getting out my pen and turning with rapt attention to the conversation*

You are getting sleepy....you are getting sleepy....yer eye-lids are getting so heavy..........you are.......bein a dumb Cape Bretoner or a "Bretoner" as they call themselves,I can't get beyond ONE syllable so don't feel bad mate....g'night!!

gunrunner ;; is you handle for real mate? try typing --hotmail.com in new location, she's slow, she ain't attractive, and sometimes she's a little bit filthy, but she's free. maybe what you're lookimg for. := )

Dec. gold up 1.20 ( thanks Mr. Yen ) and Yen @ 119.74....S+P futures down .80..... .70.......

SDR's are Special Drwaing Rights, the so-called "paper gold" of the IMF. This proposal is a lot easier than finding and developing a gold mine. Not much press because very few understand the significance. You see it first at Kitco.
http://www.rferl.org:80/nca/news/1997/09/N.RU.970923155957.html

Ted~~I'll~~mesmer~~you~~~I'll~~mesmer~~you~mesmer~~mesmer~~~dang right me eyes is falling down.~~zzzzzzz

Dwraing = Drawing. ( I don't want to get a speach from Mike Sheler about speling )

JTFlick; speaking of the cost of Coke, maybe there's something to Donald's deflation thing. Here in Texas I find lately that name brand beer is cheaper than Diet Coke! I'm paying as little as 2.49US. a sixpac, Coke's 50 cents more.

So the Americans ( YANKS ) heard about your escape and decided to pay you back eh!

TTFN

nomercy: Your production figures put the average cost of the countries mentioned at $258. Russia and S American costs aren't there but it is about were it was guesstimated several months ago.

For some reason my graph frame reads the current New York time but my top frame seems to be giving me information for yesterday, about 12 hours ago. Is my system messed up or do you see the same thing?

For you few who have capital gains, this post may be important.
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970923/politics/stories/taxes_1.html

Re: Production costs
Did you calculate your average costs based on actual ( estimate ) total production for each major producting country? If so could you please provide data.
And what was your mean deviation.

People have talked about the insider selling, and there's lots of it. Don't worry if the Dow stays nice and high. The boomer buyers are purchasing where the air is mighty thin, and the slightest breeze will blow em' off the mountain. Thing is, people will get tired of being bullish, as Donald pointed out when he saw that Barron's was not being picked up so feverishly.

To quote the above: "People don't stay pessimistic / optimistic forever". The bull might be killed by investor apathy. Buy stocks, nahhh, thats boring been done, old hat. Just remember, the higher stocks go, the better gold looks !!! - don't be swayed.

The price data at the top of the screen doesn't seem to be updating. Could it be that gold is showing some signs of life here? Or are we being sucked in again? Decisions, decisions. With all of this talk of platinum 'tightness', why isn't the price moving up more?

JTFlick - re: gamma detectors. They use them in astronomy to detect spectra from very distant stars and galaxies. It would be extremely difficult to shield a nuclear device so that it emitted virtually no rays. The sheilding would be so immense that it would make the item *very* unportable. Re: London Gold Market - Since they've been doing it for centuries they probably have the consession granted to them. They are firmly in the european camp. Read some of the british commentary about american civilization prior to WW I. Very condescening. They all have been eating our dust for decades and it seems they have their opportunity to reassert themselves rather than maintain that role. Russia is no longer a threat to them and so they do not need the US umbrella ( British & French Nuks are at the ready anyway. )

With regard to gold pricing, I do beleive it is an opportunity to move gold. Since gold has effectively been robbed from the US pile and gone to europe over the past few decades my sense is that this trend continues as europe seeks to regain predominance. So London fixes a low gold price in order to cheaply transfer gold from those foolish enough to give it away ( sorry OZ ) . I do not see the US repurchasing gold because we are much to busy trying to keep the paper up.

Yesterday's post regarding the public acknowledgement of Alan Greenspan that the Fed would buy US Treasuries in the event of a bond problem really interests me. Isn't this the same ploy as the Malasian PM supporting the equities there. It seems this would give a signal to all the big boys that they have a window of opportunity to cash out at the expense of the US public.

At some point someone will be saying that this does not make sense. US Gov debt being "purchased" with heretofore non-existant money created out of thin air by the FRB. What would the reaction be? Certainly foreigners would be loath to maintain these bonds assuming that the speedily worthless US$ would significantly depreciate their investment. So the US$ plunges as capital flies to economies which are not inflating their money supply. Who is not doing this and has a stable social context??? Any guesses?

Thanks Panda, Its good to know that its not my system in particular. It seems like the information in the graph frame is correct - at least when compared to information I can get from other sites.

Dang.... I was hoping to get some combination of good numbers for my ID# - 30-06, .308, .223, 5.56, 7.62.39/45/51/54, etc... oh well...

Aurator - yep, it's my handle & bag - buy, sell, trade, test/evaluate, "utilize", etc... I will give your e-mail suggestion a try. May come back with more questions...

Badger - I hope you're not talking that Lonestar stuff ! :- ) BTW, Black Label & PBR are "brand names " too, and has ALWAYS been cheaper than soda. PS - Are you into casting gold?

Short position on TSE on Royal Oak Mines
1,065,000 shares

Lets skin them!

In the bankable studies for juniors, the cash costs per ounce are as low a $160 in some to $200 in others. This means that the economics for gold production with $320 gold is still quite robust !, certainly a better return than and Dow 30 stocks. My point: gold producers can adapt to lower prices and get lean, just like any other company.

US bein sucked into somethin....NAH....XAU up .74....Off ta Sydney for weekly shoppin and a gander at the cruise ship,The Enchantment Of The Seas.....and maybe ....a quick stop @ the casino....got that kind of feelin today.....Tort: Where are YOU??....#22956.1: did you mean that??BBL dudes..........$$

LINEMAN - - Keep checking for those fundamentals that may still be
workin'. Nice to hear we still got a few!

Gunrunner--I don't have a computer, so I'm not sure if it could interface with one. Will check with a friend who owns both.

Royal Oak on a tear moving from $2.26 to $3.00 in less than a month. shorters are betting this is a dead cat bounce. Damn fools. Heavy insider buying on RYO at the behest of Ms. White. I see $5.00 for Royal Oak. I also see $10 for Rayrock Yellowknife, which is just awash in cash and is repurchasing 10 % of it's common this year. Allign with insider buyers, you can't loose. Flee with insider sellers, let the lemmings pick up the pieces.

Say, I just noticed. nomercy is holding a four-high straight flush! Of course, this assumes we count the "0" as the first in the sequence. ( Let's stack the deck while aurator is asleep..shhhh.. )

LINEMAN -- Noticed that ".6" on I.D. number. You get around! Let's

hope Bart saved you a bunch of new ones.

Allen ( USA ) : Re your post 10:10 9/24/97. I am a little rusty on collision cross sections and absorbtion lengths for MeV gamma radiation. Your comment about these gamma dectors being used for Astronomy makes sense. Some photoimages of weak stars or galaxies require hours of exposure. At this gamma energy, the frequency of the counts would go down dramatically with heavy shielding, but as I recall there would still be some gamma radiation at the highest energy level expected, so background sources of gamma would probably be low. Much of the lower energy gammas would be scattered and would not be imaged. This is most fortunate!
Your comment about group x in Europe rings true with me. It seems that the "New World Order" is not so homogeneous as we would be led to believe. Looks like there are agendas within agendas --- nothing new.
Your comment about A Greenspan also makes sense. I doubt he would have the resources to buy gold at its current low price, and keep worldwide deflation at bay at the same time. I guess, just like the English pound ( circa 1932? ) , only a world wide currency crisis will be sufficient cause for the US Dollar to end its role as the World's currency.
I wonder where all of these new US dollars will go. Into the foreign reserves, into the stock markets, or ???. How soon will it become common knowledge that the Dollar is being inflated? Another possibility is that no one will know ( ie deflation ) but that is the worst alternative of all.

Bart: I'm still at work - same computer, but my ID# changed. Are we picking up IP addresses? Perhaps I was assigned another after logging off my service provider.

Sweeping across-the-board up AM for PMs. Glamis, Great Central, Royal Oaks among the few losers...

To all: Does anyone have a list of which gold mining companies sold forward their gold production? I know some have sold forward as much as 10 years. As these mostly South African?
There will be some angry stockholders if earnings don't go up with gold prices! How about the low-cost producers, like Royal Oak, Glamis. I would bet that Pierre Lassonde would be too smart to sign his life away as well!
How about American Barrick -- they are always selling forward, but their derivatives management has always been very astute. I can't imagine Peter Monk getting caught! Ideas - comments?

And when those Pit Traders come back from their Sushi/Saki/Coke diet...in that order, the Yen will trade higher. A higher Yen means higher Gold, no? GO, GO, GOOOOOOOOOOO!

What a great day! Cal. is havin' another HEAT-WAVE!!!

Panda - imho, I think there was quite a bit of profit taking in PL. Some are gettin' a little nervous with that last small profit-taking ( last week ) and they want to put some cash in their account. They will buy back soon...again, imho $$ I'm holding my contracts ( futures ) even though it took a small dive. The Roooskies are holding out for higher prices AND the fact that their supply IS tight...hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

This is funny, a few months ago I Never traded Plat and now I think I'm a seasoned Veteran. Thank you Skate-Boy...

away...to check some profits $$$$$$
EB

i love bein on a roll. i think it's time for a break...Ted, you mentioned the cruise ship...hmmmmmmmmmm... we have a four day to Ensenada...Hurricane?? What Hurricane...Tequila anyone??

There is a marginal decline in one month gold lease rates, especially since last week. The new rumour is that Taiwan may announce a gold sale. With seasonal gold demand expected to rise somewhat it adds additional risk to gold shorts. Gold has traded in a tight range and still has not breached $318 support. The DOW may well reach new highs but gold is looks like it tested its low for this quarter anyway - with one week left .

The next quarter should be interesting as the Asean currency and Jap economy problems worm there way through the international economy - particularly the Jap problems.


The trigger point for a US stk dive may very well be the Jap situation - low YEN, high trade surplus vs USA, resulting disharmony.

Cheers

JTFLICK: Glamis Quarterly Report, received yesterday, says they do not sell forward and have no plans to do so.

Great ( IMHO ) site that everbody but me already knew about:

http://www1.stocksmart.com

Vale of Tears:

http://www1.stocksmart.com/ows-bin/owa/mf.g?tid=13099

All right, this is not about gold, but I would certainly like to have the opinion of the Kitco readers who listen to National Public Radio: It seems to me that 85% of their news, editorials and stories are about & in the New England area. Am I wrong here? What about the other 45 states in the USA? ( btw, NPR is being a magnificent propaganda mouthpiece for the Feds ) .

Just thought I would log in and see my new number "I feel like number". Speaking of RYO, I own a bunch of that stuff, have since Feb 93. Bought it at 2, watched it go to 7, then to 2.5, then to 5, then to 3, back to 5, then down to 1 7/8, now at 2 1/4, I'm up. I have no idea what to do with it. Every now and then some analyst says its going to 10. I do like Peggy Witte, I think she is a scrapper. Think I'll continue to hold it and see what happens, maybe I'll get another roller coaster ride. Man, I love this business. Nothing conforms to the accepted models, tons of disinformation, spooky conspiracies, yet here I am investing in the stuff. Whats wrong with me.

Not bad, 318321, two pair.

I'm out here in the thicket Ted watching the markets grow. I see that Mike Sheller has out-torted me this morning but noetheless I must make my humble offering, such as it is.

A man is crawling through the Sahara desert when he is approached by
another man riding on a camel. When the rider gets close enough, the crawling man whispers through his sun-parched lips, "Water... please... can you give...water..."
"I'm sorry," replies the man on the camel, "I don't have any water
with me. But I'd be delighted to sell you a necktie."
"Tie?" whispers the man. "I need water."
"They're only four dollars apiece."
"I need water."
"Okay, okay, say two for seven dollars."
"Please! I just need water!", moans the dying man.
"I don't have any water, all I have are ties," replies the salesman,
and he heads off into the distance.

The man, losing track of time, crawls for what seems like days.
Finally, nearly dead, sun-blind and with his skin peeling and blistering,
he sees a restaurant in the distance. Summoning the last of his strength he staggers up to the door and confronts the head waiter.

"Water... can I get... water," the dying man manages to stammer.
"I'm sorry, sir, ties required."

test

]qtmq [pewjrj

The dying man joke was pretty lame, work on your material.

fklsamfas'jf

It seems the id is determined by your handle not your isp. I use random key strikes

bvnbcd

Donald - Appreciate your message on the SDR's and IMF. Who is bankrolling the SDR's? Us-the American taxpayer?

jygjygj 12:54 -- I think you took the right to privacy a bit too far!

Group- Meyer sell signal was generated at last nights close on the S&P

What are some of the cheaper ways to own platinum physically
other than the new US Mint Liberty coins? Thanks.
Gotta go and hurl but eagerly await your response.

I got three 2's and a pair 0f 1's; beat that if you can.

Spew Master #221213, 13:07
Yes, but how long can you keep ( hold? ) it? Look at my ID!

Wichita Lineman, I warned you before you read it that it was pretty watered down ( so to speak ) and lame like the dying man. Nevertheless I will attempt to raise my standards in order that you will not be subjected to such puerile materials in the future. Actually I thought the joke was quite humerous although my secretary informed me that it was as old as dirt, or as sand in the area of the joke.

Spud Master -- Regarding NPR and New England; This is a 'haven' for those fine folks. Look at where BC takes his vacations... I live in New England, and, well, you can guess what's it's like. I've been to Montana and really liked there. Now, if I could only find something to do there ( income wise ) , as this PM market has a way of 'draining' you. :- ) )

Well I had to try this out and see my number. Agree that RYO looks like a good buy. Something sure is goin on with the gold shares maybe DAVID was not early with his LIFT-OFF alert, even most of my SA screen is green today.

Who is Meyer and his sell the S&P signal?? I am a bunch short also and buyin gold shares. Crazy or just a bunch RIGHT?

Tally Ho

test

Just follow the yellowbrick road: XAU up 2.00!: )

BIS to issue core bank supervisory principles

BASLE, Switzerland, Sept 22 ( AFP ) - The Bank for International
Settlements said Monday it will issue shortly a set of 25 core
principles aimed at boosting the effectiveness of global bank
supervisory systems.
The text containing the principles, to be released Tuesday on
the Internet, is a revised version of a consultative paper published
in April.
"The principles represent the basic elements of an effective
supervisory system," the BIS said, adding they were intended to
serve as a basic reference for supervisory and other public
authorities worldwide for banks under their jurisdiction.
The principles were drawn up by the Basle Committee on Banking
Supervision with the backing of "Group of 10" central bank
governors.
The project also received input from the supervisory authorities
in fifteen emerging market economies, including those in China, Hong
Kong and Thailand the BIS said.
Global supervisory authorities will have until October 1998 to
put forward their endorsement, which will include an undertaking to
review existing arrangements and how they conform to the updated BIS
principles.
The speed with which changes can be introduced will vary, the
BIS said, depending on whether the authorities already have the
necessary statutory powers.
Basle-based BIS is the world's central bank for central
bankers.

Smith Barney hit with fines in bond case

MIAMI, Sept. 24 ( UPI ) -- The nation's second-largest brokerage firm has been hit hard by the Securities and Exchange Commission as the
result of what the SEC called failing to adequately supervise its
employees.
Michael Lissack, who no longer works for Smith Barney, was the
managing director in the company's municipal bond department.
When Dade County issued $431 million dollars in water and sewer
bonds, investigators said Lissack grossly misrepresented the amount the
county would save by using ``an interest rate swap.''
In the settlement, Smith Barney neither admitted nor denied the
allegations and will pay a $250,000 dollar fine and $5.1 million dollars
in restitution.
Smith Barney will also have to open its books to an outside
consultant to review the public finance unit's internal practices.

FOCUS-Travelers buying Salomon in $9 billion deal

NEW YORK ( Reuter ) - The financial services giant Travelers
Group Inc. said Wednesday it agreed to buy the parent of Salomon
Brothers for more than $9 billion in stock, creating one of the
nation's biggest investment houses.
The deal is the latest merger in the securities industry,
and analysts said the announcement would not be the last.
``The merger and acquisition mania is just going to
continue,'' said Robert Froehlich at Kemper Funds, the mutual
fund group. ``I don't think there's any company in financial
services which is too big to be taken over.''
The announcement also marks the end of a turbulent decade
for Salomon, which suffered an embarrassing Treasury bond
trading scandal in 1991 and has been a widely rumored takeover
target. In 1987, Nebraska investor Warren Buffett took a big
stake in Salomon to help fend off an unwanted takeover by
investor Ronald Perelman.
Travelers said it will combine its Smith Barney brokerage
with Salomon Inc., creating a securities powerhouse that would
have ranked third in stock underwriting, second in domestic bond
underwriting and No. 1 in municipal finance last year.
``The complementary business strengths of these two
organizations ... will create a financially powerful and
formidable competitor in virtually every facet of the securities
business, in any region of the world,'' Travelers Group Chairman
Sanford Weill said in a statement.
``Salomon and Smith Barney are a natural fit,'' Salomon
Brothers Chairman Deryck Maughan said.
New York-based Travelers also sells life and property and
casualty insurance, annuities, and other products. It had assets
of $159 billion at mid-year.

Why is it that every time Gold tries to rally, the lease rates plummet.
Come and borrow more cheap Gold from the CB's and dealers, and short away to your heart's content.
This market is fixed big time, and the price has to be controlled to keep the other markets happy..... This scheme will however fail eventually.

Aurator had a good point yesterday if you all didn't see it. When I go back and review some of the old Newsletters and pubs from my archives, the Goldbugs of the 80's CONSTANTLY precahed on why the DOW would plummet "within a year" and why gold would subsequently "skyrocket" to $2,000..$3,000 etc. Pick a year, any year..in the past 15 or so.

Hmmm, which number shall I choose for today? That last oen starts with "269.... "The Goose drank wine..."

Will the REAL LGB please stand up??

SPUD MASTER: First let me tell you that there are 6 New England states. I don't listen much to NPR but the probable reason for leaving off stories about the other 44 is because those states don't matter.

Proving once again that imposters did all the "objectionable" posts of past LGB postings!

"LIFT-OFF" back on track/re-instated. My "Lift-Off" kitco post ( re-copied below ) , that I volunteered "prematurely", last Friday morning, ( -& and which I 'aborted' - over the weekend ) , I wish to re-instate today, Wed., 9/24/97.

My 'take' on some of today's markets:
#1. Gold & Silver closing at/near their daily highs, and the strong surge in the mining stocks & the XAU, suggest that the 'count-down' for
a precious metals bull-market "lift-off", has begun.
#2. The dollar's weakness vs. the DMark, SwFranc & JYen, is directly related to the strength that is returning to the metals, and to the increasing vulnerability of the U.S. stock markets.
( I've referred to this 'conncection' to watch for, in several kitco posts, over the last several months. )
#3. The US Bond rally could be tied to a Fed. Reserve & other 'powers-that-be' joint-decision - to keep interest rates low, in hopes of not derailing the economy, and the markets.
#4. The "wild-cards" -- the 'achille's heel ( s ) ' -- for U.S. stocks & the economy, are likely to be found in new bull markets in the energy group,
the grains, and in foreign currencies.

Here is the re-copy of my kitco post - "LIFT-OFF" - of last Friday morning:

Date: Fri Sep 19 1997 11:37
David ( goldfevr@pacbell.net ) :
"LIFT-OFF" ! -- My perspective ( 2-cents' worth ? ) here, is that we
are at "lift-off", for the
precious metals. Key mining stocks, such as ABX & others, have
completed their reverse
head-and-shoulders chart patterns.
My kitco post of some weeks ago referred to the importance of the
completion of this
technical chart pattern, before a sustained upside move for the
metals was likely. The 'XAU'
has had a good, and probably a 'final' shake-out, for many months to
come, from the 100
level, down to almost 90.
It is now stubbornly gathering momentum on the upside, currently at
96+, for a "lift-off". As it
moves through the 100 level, and begins to accelerate, we will
witness a sustained bull move
in the four precious metals - gold, silver, platinum, & paladium,
and in related mining stocks.
Here, at the end of summer, and the beginning of fall, 1997, we are
at the beginning of the first
enduring, intermediate bull-market move, in precious metals, since
the first quarter of '95, and
again, since the 4th quarter of '95.
We are at "lift-off".

Kiwi, $9 Bil merger, Travellers with $151 Bil in assets! Stocks, Bonds, Insurance, oh my !. I never knew there was that much money in shuffling paper. But money is paper, I give you paper, you give me paper, paper, paper, paper !... All the more reason to buy gold. I wish Buffet and Perelman had started a row in '87, that would've been great.

Spud Master 08:33--Great post regarding EFT.

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for next Tuesday, September 30.

BART, I've been away for a couple of weeks. What's with the ID number ?

Anyone heard of some idiot investment newsletter writing ( see
your junk mail ) who is touting a 10,000 + dow, no inflation,
and a new era in investing. His name is something like Richard
Degaussier and he is just about calling you a fool if you don't
jump on the SpinMeisters' band wagon.

Tort: I liked your joke. Your humour is sick; just like mine.

JTFLICK: As I recall the IMF was/is funded 40% by the US. They have a website. I am going out for awhile but I will try to find out when I return. Here is the webpage on SDR's
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/sup0996/10sdr.htm

David,
Will you un-un-un-liftoff if the XAU falls tomorrow?

Machf15

GENERAL: There is a newsletter writer called John Dessauer, he publishes from Orleans, Massachusetts. Could he be the one?

Testing some numerology re #; 1st ever post

All - This is the most bizzare line I've seen. Looks like the bulls are having a time of it. Every time it hits 8000+ there's a big slide back down. This is the forth time in four sessions its done this. It looks like the buuls are being VERY stubborn and the bears are really glad to have em do this so that they can divest as much as possible. Question to all: Any guesses about how many times this line will touch and retreat from 8000 before the bulls call it quits???

Dipsters, your nation is calling you. You have got to protect the big guys. Keep buying. Keep beleiving. Keep dreaming about the BIG up trend just ahead. It'll come. Just keep buyin' them dips, bros.

General, re your 14:55. Yes I've heard of that analyst. I think he's the same one who in past years has made similar outragoesly irresponsible predictions such as an unprecedented bull market, DOW 4,000, ( when it was at 3K ) DOW 5,000 ( when it was at 4K ) , DOW 6,000 ( when it was at 5K ) , well you get the idea. And of course history has proven him a total idiot, and has shown clearly that Goldbugs and conspiracy theorists have now made huge gains while such Bull market idiots continue to spout their nonsense about a rising DOW, a solid economy, etc.

If only these rosy bubble market bulls would face reality for a change and stop talking nonsense to people than all of America could manage to lose out on 500% gains and lose enormous sums in the process, just as the GoldBugs have!!

General, it's worse than you think. We have a real estate guy, who was a former minister of finance, saying the Dow will reach 10,000, and you are fool if you don't a ) use your built up home equity for a big loan to buy index and small cap funds, and b ) get a margin account and max it out buying more. Another guy we have comming up is a seminar by, I think, Richard Wise, I'm not sure if the name is correct, entitled "Bear Market Baloney". Just as in 1929, when market greed is at it's height, the Ponzi schemes and 'Fund of Funds' start to come out of the woodwork.

You're missing the big picture Allen. Ignore the outdated DOW. The NASDAQ, and other broad indexes continue to make new highs day after day ( yesterday yet another new high ) and the broad market continues to make new highs to new lows at a 40:1 ratio ( approximtely ) . The market is as strong a bull as it's ever been, but I guess we all see what we want to see.....

Of course the Dow will hit 10,000. I'm praying for it cause I laugh harder and harder when people pay 25x, no 35x, no 50x, nahh, shoot the works, 100x earnings ON AVERAGE for the Dow, with falling earnings on the horizon. Tell me LGB, what big purchases have you made recently to support corporate America?, on credit ? - I think you get the picture.

Just want to see this ID thing. By the way, PGU traded over a million shares so far today...

Now Witchita, that leveraged advice is TRULY bad, but that would be the case in any market at any time for the casuak investor. I still hear those idiots on the radio hawking silver options, soybean options, heating oil options, et al to the unwary, and a real estate guy? probably made all his money selling worthless timeshares or those infamous Real Estate Partnerships that all went bust. Let's not confuse snake oil salesmen ( like the bad news bear Gloon and Dooomers of the past 15 years ) with sound, boring conventional, long term investment advice. I'm out the markeyt but if the fundamentals don't change and we have any kind of reasonable dip it won't take much for me to average back in. And personally I think that's the "safest" long term strategy of all if we're looking at a retirement type savings fund.

Arugh !, Chola, Chola ! CHOLA, Bulagh !, BULAGH! Aragalh !, What's that sound ?, just the bulls choking on their paper. The Dow seems reluctant to break 8000 on a sustained basis. Come on bulls, give it all ya got, I want every last cent poured into the market. Do it, go "Full Monty" !!!!

Who Cares; so attemps to get points across to legislators hits a brick wall; which leads to the blowing off of steam here.
If one's effort meets with difficulty; why should other posters who may want to throw some oil on the floors of Congress be discouraged? I find that interesing.

I will not post the url again, nor will I reply to or ever read your posts.
There is much level headed information here and elsewhere for me to base decisions on.

Well Witchita, we agree that P/E ratios are high, and profits have little or no room to grow, and what good news is left to drive the market substantially higher? That's why I'm on the sidelines waiting for a reasonable correction. However, given all the fundamental GOOD economic news we do have on hand, which I won't list here because I've done it too many times already ad nauseum, DOW 10,000 is a lot more likely than DOW 5,000 over the next 2 years or so. It always amazes me to see people who have missed this entire bull market say they're "laughing" at all the fools who have made 400 to 500% on their investments with no effort, no study, no analysis...no strategy. Just follwed the conventional wisdom and put their savings into mutual funds. These people are fools?? I don't think so. The "fools" are all the clever folks with the "Insider" analysis "knowledge" who managed to be totally wrong year after year in their idiotic "Bear market looming, crash coming this year" predictions.

What the hell is happening to my Dow?? and on a day the Long Bond is up considerably....um....better check my tea leaves!...and see if I can make some sense....of anything...hi 22956.1

LBJ ( 15:48 ) Hey, let's not be RATIONAL....

General re your 14:55. Come to think of it I don't think I HAVE heard of that particular Newsletter analyst who has the unmitigated gall to predict a rising DOW. However, I HAVE heard of of some Idiot Newsletter analysts who predict things like DOW crashes on the day of lunar eclipses and such. Why don't I hear anything from you about that hmmmm?????

Yep Ted, you're right I slipped up there getting rational for a moment. Forgot what site I was on! As Sheller would say, ( Sung to the tune of an Olivia Newton John song you Aussie's ) ...."Let's get Metaphysical, Metaphysical, let's get into Metaphysical......"

http://junior.apk.net/~jbarta/idiot/idiot.html

XAU at 98.10 +3.15 and +3.32% ( percentwise ) . Not a bad day at the office ( the public library ) .: )

LGB: Yer killin me man....ABX up .8125 @ 22.625 ( Sh!t,all I need is another month of gains like that and I'll be back to even ) ...Long Bond up 26 ticks and DJUI sold off @ the end of the day....ARMAGEDDON is here!

This report from DBC...interesting if words attributed to Bundesbunk are true......
NEW YORK ( DBC ) -- The U.S. dollar dropped more than 1 percent against both the German mark and Japanese yen
Wednesday as Germany's Bundesbank said it would do everything it could to bolster its currency. Japanese officials also
indicated they might seek to coordinate international efforts to defend their flagging currency.

At market tops credit & money is easy. At market bottoms the reverse is true. You judge where we are.

About psychology: At market tops there is much talk about the market being "safe", an "investment". In fact, there is talk of changing the rules so as to allow investment in areas that used to be considered as "unsafe" or "too risky". At bottoms the market is thought to be "dead". The public 'knows' that it is too risky or even "gambling" to participate in the market.

Timing is an issue. There is no doubt about that, but judging market tops and market bottoms is not brain surgery. Because the market is a coming together of people with hopes and fears, this behavior makes itself apparent. When everyone is buying you should be unloading, and when everyone is selling you should begin to buy.

We agree on what part to emphasize! My contempt for ANALysts is well known. And when the "experts" here deride small invsetors like moi, I especially enjoy it! these are the incredibly clever "experts" who have managed to be consistently wrong year after year for a decade or more about Gold, PM's, mining shares, and equities. ( and of course they've lost their hiney ends for that long and now have to resort to selling other people on their ideas, or hawking Platinum coins and claiming their doing it as a "public service" rather than to gain new clients! )

Yes I also have approprriate contempt for many stock market analysts. After all, even when looking at the best bull market in history, we already know that "technical" stock picks, were outperformed by the S & P 500 index by a 4:1 ratio!! I didn't make this up, it's a well documented statistic. So when it comes to the BEAR ANALysts, who have been consistently wrong now for 15 years or so, this is where complete and TOTAL contempt is warranted!

LGB, you are correct in your 'don't wait on the sidelines' approach. I too was involved in common stocks until this April. I decided things had gone too far. Buffet was out at the same time. I have made substantial profits, but P/E's up to 15-20 for the most outstanding companies are all I am willing to pay. Businesses, in my view should be seen as 'cash generators' and have a yardstick to be measured with. I also see stocks as sort of a bond with a special cupon, the special cupon being investor irrationality that can hit at any time. If I buy a AA bond with an 8% yeild, I see it the same as buying the bluest of blue chips at 12.5x earnings, but no 'irrationality cupon'. In summation, LGB, I don't want to start a row with anyone here, I enjoy your participation and would like you to know that your viewpoint is extremely valid, and is not lost on me. I would have hated to let this bull pass me by without taking a few cut out of it. But lets deal with the situation today. Just like bulls in the late 1960s thought the 'Nifty Fifty' were worth 50 to 100 times earnings, we have the same proponents today. Who do you allign with ? - of course your not going to buy into that. I am glad your sitting on the sidelines, just waiting to pick your spots. Now is not the time to become greedy, I like to keep the casinos' money in my kilt. That's my humble opinion.

Donald - just 'got' your 08:14, Har har har ;=}

I agree with what you stated Tom, the problem is you left out about a million other factors for judgeing market tops vs. impending crashes. Such as economic fundamentals, inflation rate, Fed funds rate, strength of the dollar, strength of the economy, consumer confidence, commodity prices, world market influences, Bond market trends, volatility, etc. etc etc.

Date: Tue Sep 23 1997 21:35
6pak ( Vronsky @ Ask the question again ) ID#206190:
Date: Tue Sep 23 1997 13:10
6pak ( Vronsky @ Questions asked, Why no reply???? ) :
Vronsky::: I asked for a reply to my question, re: World Gold Council.
" Is the Gold-Eagle site a Marketing Tool, for the World Gold Council."
I would appreciate a reply. Thanks, Take Care.

Sure as shootin' there is always something happening in the market. Some recent buys of mine have performed well: ( in Cdn $ ) RYO.T @ 2.30, RAY.T @ 5.2. I also like Queensatke QTR.T in the junior area, but have a feeling it might get a little cheeper. They have about 40 cents in cash, no debt, great results, ( as you say LGB, ad nauseum ) at $1.40 Cdn, it still has room to fall, but keep an eye on it. 40 cents in cash and books at $1.00, no debt, anything below a $1Cdn and I get the itchy fingers.

Anything to be numbered 'mongst de elite! I'll take any #.

I have never believed in the last 25 years that Washington would ever
settle the national debt in any way other than inflating it away. I believe Greenspan confirmed that when he ( a former hard currency dude ) declares that the Fed may buy Treasury bonds. The question is, "What will the precious yellow be worth when this happens"?

hopes and fears... You cannot predict a market crash. But you can know if you are in a financial bubble or not. KISS - keep it simple, & don't be distrated by all the noise : )

LGB, I think we are both getting too caught up in macro factors, while very important, every stock is a story, and if something is a really good Emerging Growth Stock that is dirt cheap and has good fundamentals and prospects, sure, I will buy it, regardless of what the Dow is at. I've had stocks that go up when the market goes dow and vice-versa, and I am sure you have had the same experience. It all depends on where you sit on the 'value spectrum'.

hopes and fears... You cannot predict a market crash. But you can know if you are in a financial bubble or not. KISS - keep it simple, & don't be distrated by all the noise : )

I've recently read "ANALysis of long term gold prices that claim Gold has maintained it's value because it still take about an ounce of gold to buy a good suit..just as it did in 1920, etc. Hmmm, forgoing the suit for a moment, I bought my 2nd new car, a Honda Civic, in 1980. If I paid for it in Gold 1 ounce coins, it would have cost around 5 ounces of Gold. A new base model Honda Civic DX sedan today, would cost around 40 ounces of gold. EIGHT TIMES as much gold!! So for you "TA" types, I'm not sure your "value" of gold holds up. Seems to me that you could just as easily make a case for a HUGE decline in the REAL value of Gold compared to goods, as you could an increase.

Likewise we could compare Home prices. In our area, a nice 3 bedroom could be had in 1980 for approx. 200 ounces of gold. Today, it would take approx. 937 ounces to purchase that same house! Almost 5 times as much gold!!

We could look at several other key commodities and costs. Gasoline, energy costs, food items, College tuition.... You get the point. For the casual average non technical investor, ( which is 95% of them I would think ) , There's really only one place that you could have made substantive gains and preserved your money in the 80's and 90's. Only one really "safe" haven for it, and it SURE wasn't GOLD! GOLD has been a DISASTOR as a "safe" haven now hasn't it???

September 24, 1997
Fed nominees to appear at Senate hearing next week

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - The U.S. Senate Banking Committee has scheduled a hearing for Sept. 30 to consider President Clinton's two nominees to the Federal Reserve Board, Edward Gramlich and Roger Ferguson, an aide to the panel said Wednesday.

Gramlich, a University of Michigan professor, and Ferguson, a consultant at the New York firm McKinsey and Co. Inc. who has expertise in banking, were nominated in July.

The two men would fill two seats that have been vacant since the beginning of the year when Janet Yellen left to become White House chief economist and Lawrence Lindsey joined a think tank.

If approved by the banking panel, the candidates would face a confirmation vote by the full Senate.

Coincidentally, a meeting of the U.S. central bank's policy making arm, the Federal Open Market Committee, is scheduled for the same day as the hearing.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/ECONOMY-FED.html

There is a one word answer to all your theories about the market.

\\\\\\\\\\\\\ FEAR !! ///////////////

There seems to be alot of it going around. It's not a question of "IF"
the crash or correction will happen it's "WHEN"

1. Jerry Favors is sticking to his forecast. http://www.marketweb.com/commentary/JF0924.HTM.
2. Question. Does every village tolerate a village idiot?

September 24, 1997

Thais put 58 finance firms on special watch

BANGKOK, Thailand ( Reuter ) - Thailand said Wednesday it planned to place 58 ailing finance firms closed by the authorities earlier this year under the supervision of a new independent supervisory body.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/ECONOMY-THAILAND.html

The IMF, World Bank etc., etc., are funded to power by the taxpayers of the contributing countries and to their detriment.
HIGHER TAXES, will result because of a smaller tax base; remendy keep the stock market up.
LOW PAYING JOBS, in the high cost member countries, their excuse? Foreign competion, while the elitists make a bundle taking a cut on the imports.
LOSS OF EMPLOYMENT, due to imports from low wage countries. It is all planned out to make us their slaves.
Who benefits after the Asean flack, not us.
Gunrunner; I expect that your business will prosper.

LGB, your 16:37 post has pointed out, much more succinctly than I ever could, that gold should be selling for eight to twenty times more per ounce than it is. Inflation has ravaged, dollars are worthless. It's not that gold has not kept up, it's that people value junk more than gold.

testing
doh reh mee faa laa tii doooooo

just warming up

Your 16:13 was good news here, meaning; when the world's three major currencies have concerns. the light at the end of the tunnel is near.

NJ re your 16:41. Just read Mr. Favors brilliant ANALysis of the impending market crash. Since he gives 2 days for the crash to begin, and since he published his ANALysis yesterday, I guess the crash starts tomorrow huh? Join Puetz in buying those S&P PUT options NJ! In fact, why don't you take ALL your financial assets and buy PUTS in the S & P? It's a lock baby, a sure thing, you'll be a millionaire overnight! Once again we have "Idiots" giving us verifiable predictions from other "Idiots" and calling the "sane" folks in the asylum "Idiots". Geez this Jerry Favors , has favored us with yet another "TA" prediction which will lead to his certain embarrasment. Oh wait, these Bears never do get embarrased do they? Nope, they just say their "timing" was a little off and make yet another prediction and suck a few more starry eyed ( No offense Sheller ) fools into their highly technical brilliant thoeries. Where's WW to talk Marxism to us? I've had enough laughs from the Bears this week to last till Friday...

BTW NJ, I hope the NJ stand for something besides a location! Otherwise I'll have TWO reasons to feel bad for ya!

To The Wichita Lineman and LGB:

It is always interesting as LGB explains the relationship
between gold's purchasing power today and in the past..
For me this is really all nonsense. Gold, like all
commodities is subject to "supply" and "demand". Pure and
simple.. Gold is easier to produce, banks are dumping
it and demand is not enough to offset the supply.. Until
this reverses itself the bear market in gold will continue.

Also, like all commodities, the bear markets will surpass
most expectations.

Suits are still priced rationally, but it takes an average person one full year's wages to buy a car. Real estate is pricey in trendy areas of big cities, but dirt cheap in small towns. You get the picture, value can be found, but you can pay through the nose too. Value's in gold.

Witchita re your 16:48. You say "People value junk more than gold" . Now look, this kind of thinking is the folly of Die Hard GoldBugism!! I love a gold coin as much as anyone here, even bought some finally this week, BUT it's just a metal, an inert, shiny metal. Homes, food, modes of transportation are "junk" compared to a hunk of metal?? Come now man! You've lost sight of what life is all about. Check Mazlow's hierarchy of needs in Psych courses before concluding that the things that sustain ourselves and our families are "junk" in comparison to a hunk of inert metal.

Today the market went down despite the long bond being up almost a full point. Market internals confirm the failure at the highs. Check the numbers at http://quote.yahoo.com/m0?u. Market high of 8/7/97 is now confirmed.

In the meanwhile what to do about the village idiot. He just wont shut up.

But Notagoldbug, you're missing my point. You and I agree that supply/demand is what's driving it at the moment. The whole thrust of my point is that all the "technical analysis" re gold's historic value ratios, boom & bust cycles, value to DOW ratio, etc etc is all nonsense. Supply/demand as you said but I would also add that supply/demand is too simplistic. Political manipulation, monetary policy of the FED and all world banks, world events, unforseen world crises, inflation shoudl it return with a vengeance, all these issues could and would influence gold's price in the future when they occur. It's the TA "wave" theories, and DOW/Gold ratio theories, and Lunatic uh I mean LUNAR theories et al that I so hold in contempt. ANd I question the sanity of all the "genuises" who constantly deride me for being a lowly small player investor, trying to use a little common sense and logic to make sense of a continually evolving world economy in making investment decisions. The "genuises" who ridicule all the stock market investors have mostly missed the whole bull market in my view, to the LIFELONG detriment of their bank accounts no matter WHAT happens in the future of Gold or the DOW.

The next few days will determine who the "Idiot" is now won't they NJ? Put all your money in them S&P "PUT" options NJ. Yes, you're entire net worth. Do it tomorrow at the open before you miss the "crash"

September 24, 1997
Tycoons and Third World nations find common ground

HONG KONG ( AP ) - For days, the finance ministers and central bankers
from 180 countries had been talking nonstop in the jargon of currency
fluctuations, capital inflows, GDPs and market transparency.
That's why James Wolfensohn's speech seemed such a contrast.
"We are living in a time bomb and unless we take action now, it could
explode in our children's face," warned the president of the World Bank.

Three billion people live on less than $2 a day; 1.3 billion on less than a dollar; 100 million go hungry every day; 150 million never go to school, he said.

The money is coming from the world's growing middle class, from pension
funds, insurance pools and other standard investment channels of people
searching for higher returns on their savings.

A consensus emerged among developed and developing countries that more open markets are the best route to prosperity, despite the risks. The
chief disagreement was over the pace of liberalization, with small poor
countries wanting to move more slowly than the rich and powerful.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.World-Money-Summit.html

Food: go to Winn Dixie and fill up on cheap canned goods. Transport: take the bus. Homes: live in Idaho. My point is that there will forever be so much materialistic crap in American society forevermore, so that our entire reason for existence is to consume. Please, please don't lump gold in with chia pets, tuna fish and 3 bedroom bungalows, it's is more than that.

Cyberspace is the perfect medium to run a scam on the gold lovers of the world. There is no way to assure a live human being is attached on a one to one basis to handles.e-mail_addresses.ip_addresses. The Disinformation_Machine which now has almost total control of this forum ( Latest Post_Count: Disinformation_handles 126 Sincere_Posters 45 Unknown 17 ) has been adding a lot of e-mail accounts lately. Lets look at why this does nothing at all to demonstrate a one to one relationship. Given enough resources, which our Disinformation_Machine has, each of the following relationships may be true.

HUMAN_BEING_1.Hepcat.EMAIL_ADDRESS_1.IP_ADDRESS_1
HUMAN_BEING_1.Oldman.EMAIL_ADDRESS_2.IP_ADDRESS_2
HUMAN_BEING_1.LGB---.EMAIL_ADDRESS_3.IP_ADDRESS_3
HUMAN_BEING_1.RJ-----.EMAIL_ADDRESS_4.IP_ADDRESS_4
HUMAN_BEING_1.Anyone.EMAIL_ADDRESS_5.IP_ADDRESS_5

Thus we see one live human being may run, without detection, any number of handles. Of course any Disinformation_Machine.employee may also run these same handles.

CNBC Tech Analyst, John Murphy, says "it is time to take a look at gold stocks".

September 24, 1997
German, Japanese comments blast dollar lower

NEW YORK ( Reuter ) - The dollar fell sharply against the Japanese yen and German mark Wednesday after top German and Japanese financial officials said they would work to stop the dollar from rising excessively against their currencies. Japan's Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Eisuke Sakakibara emphasized a statement made by the world's industrial powers at a summit last Saturday in Hong Kong.

"The translation was much stronger," Powers said. "He said that if dollar strength became inflationary, they would act. But that's not the case at this point. "Some dealers also said they saw the Bank of France buying dollars against the mark in New York trade, casting doubts on Germany's ability to push the dollar lower.

France and other European nations have previously called for a stronger dollar, which would lower the prices of their goods in global markets, boosting their exports.

"German officials are quite happy with the dollar where it is. Our question is, 'Is Germany authorized to speak on behalf of those other nations?"' said John Hanley, chief dealer at Bank Austria in New York.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/DOLLAR.html

Hey "Friend of Kitco" , I thought you said your work was done and you weren;t going to post anymore? Why you posting as "Disinformation Tips" now? Talk about hypocrisy!! Posting under false handles? New and different handles? UmHmmmm me thinks you reside at the "Grassy Knoll" mental institution Mr "Dis".

People get tired of cars, fed up with their houses, overeat at resturants. Women think their husbands are boars and men think their wives are witches, but through it all, nobody can part with their gold !

Dow/Gold Ratio 24.44

Witchita re your 17:18. You got a case of the "gold fever" man! You better hurry to the Doc, they have medication for that. AS to moving to Idaho, riding the bus, bitty Bungalows, and canned food. You must not have local family, or a bunch of kids. What's important to me is to provide them a stable environment on a nice place, mobility, a decent education, access to their extended family members, and more than ANY of the above, a value system that includes looking for the good in life and developing that, not dwelling on the negatives. learn the negatives, plan for them, deal realistically with them, but don't let them consume you! Have fun, get a sense of humor, enjoy life, lighten up!! Gold has it's place, I'm a "closet" goldbug, but it will remain in perspective. It's just a hunk a metal , not a hunka burnin love!

Move my kids from the CA coast to Idaho? Or Arizona or Utah? Into some Apartment someplace? I think not pal!!!!

September 24, 1997
Voisey's Bay project has narrow window,warns president

ST. JOHN'S, Nfld. ( CP ) - Inco's proposed Voisey's Bay nickel project
could be stalled for decades by market factors if it isn't allowed to proceed within the next few years, a company executive warned Wednesday.

A few days later, Inco announced it would delay the proposed startup of
its Voisey's Bay project until at least 2000 because of the environmental
review process and problems negotiating agreements with aboriginal
communities.
http://www.canoe.ca/NationalTicker/CANOE-wire.Voiseys-Delay.html

6pak: REF Your question about World Gold Council: "Is the Gold-Eagle site a Marketing Tool, for the World Gold Council." I would appreciate a reply.

I TRULY APOLOGIZE - I have NOT been avoiding you. I just saw the question a few moments ago. In recent days I have been putting in 15 hour days along with my partner Westerman in redesigning GOLD-EAGLE, and making many new additions to serve the needs of our worldwide readership ( NOW 90 countries as Brunei Darussalam entered a few days ago ) .

Regarding your question: We have great respect for the venerable World Gold Council - whose constituents are men of impeccable international reputations. GOLD-EAGLES ONLY INVOLVEMENT with the esteemed WGC was to post one of their informative reports a couple of months ago. No, we are NOT a Marketing Tool for them. I would like to think GOLD-EAGLE IS A Marketing Tool for the many 100s of THOUSANDS of goldbugs IN THE WORLD, WHO may not have the time nor financial background to share the considered knowledge of GOLD-EAGLEs many contributors.

We all know the traditional media is owned by the financial world which has abolished economic cycles. TO OFFSET THEIR OVERTLY BIASED SLANT, GOLD-EAGLE strives to offer a more objective view and evaluation of the entire investment spectrum. Come take a peek at our improvements:
http://www.gold-eagle.com

Wonder what my number will be.

NJ: Much as I want to agree with you that 8/7/97 was the Dow top, we need more confirmation before I would bet money on it. I will start to think that way when the Dow is below 7470 and the Dow/Gold Ratio is around 23.50. That would be down 10% from the highs for each. This is a powerful mania and a mistake can eat you alive. There are lots of signs that are looking good. The action today, Bonds up, stocks down, shows signs of fear. Billions are coming into stocks each week and not doing much apparent good; but we have been fooled before. Keep the spirit.

you really don't need to spell analyst with a-n-a-l capitolized anymore. We get the message.

That should have been capitalized

To LGB:

Appreciate your comments. I am very simplistic and though you
shun technical analysis I find it very useful, and profitable.
Many, as you do, feel you cannot time the market. Remember by
being "long" anything you feel this is a good "time" to be holding
that particular investment. People only embrace the idea of
"long term" investing after many years profitable buying and
holding.. When the trend ( timing? ) reverses this phrase will
not be as popular.

Your a very prolific writer and enjoy your comments very much.
But your as Zealous about your theories as the others you criticize
so much.. As my "handle" indicates I'm "notagoldbug". Gold,
for me, is almost a worthless commodity. Most here are religious
about there love for gold and I have found one cannot ridicule
( criticize ) that without being ostracized..

LGB - you are the Kitco spoiler aren't you? Anything for a fight. Are you Irish? DOW is important. Just as Donald's observation that Barron's mags were leftovers from the week before. Just like the Gold to DOW ratio. It seems that every time you get your hair up you turn to ridicule to drowned your opponent. What we are looking for is something more positive than a historical rant against phantom investment advisors. What we want to know is what are your measures. What do use instead of what you've heard here? Lastly, if you have evidence that is hard data to the contrary then publish it here when you beg to differ with someone else. Everyone does some analysis, even you. So fess up, you are really Jerry Favors in disguise, aren't you. This is your alter ego, right. You are actually a TA wonk who feels the need to 'break out' every now and then for sanity sake. ;- )

All - with the public pronouncements from USA, Germany and Japan on their relative currency positions and future desires we should see a US$ correction now. Bonds will ( may ) rise and the markets get their come up-ance. "Cash out now your fer'ners 'n' get yer swarthy frames back into yer own economies." Hello, operator, I'd like to book a capital flight to the Swiss Alps, please. Oh, a few seats left. I'll take two, thanks.

Gold going up. All aboard!

I thank you, for your reply. I have viewed most of the outstanding material at your site. Take care.

They say it never rains in Southern Caliifornia, seems I often heard that kind of talk before, it never rains in California, the girls don't they warn ya, it pourrrrs, man it pourrrrs. Any idea LGB ??

LGB: You pose interesting questions sometimes, so let me return the favor. It is a question once asked by the late Carroll Quigley at the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. the question: You and I are alone in a room in which there is a million dollars stacked in one corner and a machine gun in the other corner. You can move to one or the other but not both. Which do you pick up and why?

I am not for keeping anyone out of this forum, and your points are well taken. I have heard that gold is 'just a hunk of metal' from just about everyone. I don't want you fellas to leave, I like you posts, but gold-bashing won't make you any friends here.

September 24, 1997
US stocks fall on worries about third-quarter results

NEW YORK ( Reuter ) - Stocks fell Wednesday amid a lack of fresh economic news and persisting worries about third-quarter profits.
The Dow Jones industrial average slipped 63.35, or 0.79 percent, to 7,906.71.

"Because many people say stocks are overvalued, the market needs reinforcement on a minute-to-minute basis and we didn't have any," said Pierre Ellis, senior international economist at Primark Decision Economics.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/STOCKS.html

TO LGB: Thank you for showing us the oversight in the new ID# system. It's been fixed now and so you can take comfort in the knowledge that no one can pretend to be you anymore.

Pick a number: I'll box 1278 for the super. Hope it's a good one.
No longer posting as Craig - I found another one in the archives...

LGB: Prof. Quigley's obvious answer was the machine gun for with it in the absense of other rules you then also take the money. Now, by way of this illustration we see the intrinsic value of gold, the fact that with it you can buy whatever else you want during times of lawlessness and duress more so than any paper product. While gold is not a weapon per se it is the traditional store of value by which kings and generals buy weapons. Or, if you will, just think of it as a parachute, bulky and in the way most of the time but priceless when the plane is on fire.

I wonder if the algorithm does a a full string check w/email address?

Just to check my new ID# badge....funny brave new World....!!!

Well it almost worked, except for the last two characters...

Checking my badge #

Just a glance again to see how it works.....

Great.......this little new game will animate the forum, in lieu
of our boooooooring gold...

This was the day I have been waiting for. ALL major XAU components up sharply on HEAVY VOLUME. Could be the beginning of something big.

Ahhhh.. thank goodness, I'm not LGB..8-]

Just playing the ID# roulette to see what number I get for my work account.

Re: Neophyte's 18:08 post, today, about "intrinsinc value" ( -his post is re-copied below ) :
I appreciate this post of Mr. Quigley's question. I decided to check with one of my financial gurus, whose abundant wealth far exceeds mine, as to what he would do when faced with these two choices: the machine gun, or the million dollars.

He suggested I seek/inquire...and if not granted, retreat there - anyway, to a 3rd choice: do nothing. He responded to my question with this question: "Why not do nothing?!"

Ans so, I pondered - what if both parties did nothing --
... but remained where they were, doing nothing ...just becoming very still.

"Perhaps then," he continued, "they would both find - intrinsic value". ... That, is what he said.
-----------------------------------------
Here is the re-copy of Neophyte's 18:08 post:
--------------------------------______________________
Date: Wed Sep 24 1997 18:08
Neophyte ( Intrinsic value ) ID#389223:
LGB: You pose interesting questions sometimes, so let me return the favor. It is a question
once asked by the late Carroll Quigley at the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown
University. the question: You and I are alone in a room in which there is a million dollars
stacked in one corner and a machine gun in the other corner. You can move to one or the
other but not both. Which do you pick up and why?

Return to Kitco Homepage

"A $70 price for gold is a far cry from the $300 that the goldbugs widely predicted." _Business Week_, August 23, 1976, p42.

Thanks Bart! Just Beta testing for ya! Now I don't have to be schizophrenic anymore. Allen re your TA question. OKOK ya got me! For basic stock TA I use http://www.stocksmart.com/ I try and read the WSJ whenever I can, I listen to a syndicated analyst I respect on the weekends ( Bob Brinker ) , and I try and read & digest every scrap of info I can from a variety if Sites including this one, Motley Fool, etc. However, as I've said many times here, I would never recommend my approach to anyone else. I'm trying to be too clever and so far I may have only been lucky. For someone 20 years old I'd tell em to dollar cost average into mutual funds for the next 40 years REGARDLESS of where the DOW or Gold is, and if they want to get technical later on, more power to em. Timing fails for most individuals. Timing has failed for most analysts. Diversified equity holdings have been the best overall strategy for most investors for a hundred years and that'l be the case for the next hundred.

PS What's wrong with being Irish damit!! ;- ) BTW, I'm one of the happiest most easygoing guy's you'd ever meet. I never stop laughing or enjoying life all day long...If I sound "Strident" here on ocassion, it may be due to having a numerical disadvantage of 100 voices to 1 or so crying "Fool, sheep, naive one, Lemming, Bubble head, Dipster, PaperBug," et al endlessly and ceaselessly. It'd be easier for me to accept the "Wisdom" of all these genuises if they were RIGHT once in awhile. Nevertheless, there are a lot of great minds here that I respect and learn from. George Cole comes to mind. And I enjoy the interaction, even if it's heated.

George Cole: splendid eh?

People were still muttering,"Day by day in every way I am getting better
and better" in accordance with Dr. Coue's formula for infallible success.
Speakeasies were multiplying by the thousands, there was a still in
every cellar and a gin in every bathtub.

The graft built on prohibition alone pyramided into hundreds of millions
of dollars as the gangsters bought off chiefs of police, sheriffs, and
federal government officials who sold them the contents of government
warehouses. Hijackings, bandit raids on banks, machine gunnings in the
street, gang warfare, and gang control of counties, cites, trade unions,
and small industries became common while stocks were beginning the climb
that would send the nation into mass hysteria, a feverish panting for
riches.

There was prosperity of a kind, built on credit and installment buying,
on the shifting sands of overexpansion. In 1920 there had been 7,000,000
passenger cars in the United States. By 1929 there were almost 24,000,000
Radio had blossomed into a major entertainment and a major industry. A
total of $60,000,000 was spent in 1922 for radio sets, parts, and
accessories.

By 1929 $850,000,000 was spent on the same objects. Mass production and
the belt line had come into their own. The speed-up, increased production
and pay by piece work became the be-all and end-all of American industry
while trade unions became little more than an employer-controlled device
to guarantee greater production.

In 1929 the National Industrial Conference Board, an employer organizat-
ion, found in a survey it had conducted that 97 per cent of the large
plants were using either piece rates or special wage "incentive" plans.
So prevalent was the speed-up in the eight years following World War I
that the average output of workers, according to the Annual Report of
the Department of Commerce, 1927-28, increased by 33 per cent or about
double that of the twenty previous years.

what's the new id stuff? direct me to a post if this is the 9975th question like this today....

BYRON: I think we should change your handle to "Clyde" you are one hell of a cat trainer. Kitty learned the one hoop trick yesterday, the two hoop trick today...fine job. ( Do you suppose it was the khaki jodphur outfit and the pistol that convinced her? )

I'd go for the million and offer the guy half of it for the machine gun... they told me in negotiation seminars that I could pull this off with the right technique. I mean if you can sell Market crash based on Lunar Eclipse newsletters to folks, or convince people they're SMARTER than everyone else by missing the biggest bull market in history, than maybe you can sell anybody on anything no?

GSC - I hope so, I bought back in today. We'll see ; )

Today's action again shows that the dollar is the key variable in global financial markets today. As the dollar goes, so go stocks, bonds, and gold.

As long as the dollar bull remains intact so will the stock and bond bulls and the gold bear. But the end of the dollar bull will trigger stock and bond bears and a powerful gold bull.

Test

test

test ( sorry bart, for the bandwidth )

Re: LGB's recent post, today, an excerpt of which is re-copied below::

It isn't that 'timing work' fails the 'timing-analyst' or the investor, it is the other way around. If you choose to invest for the long term, then LGB's comments here ( below ) are valid, or at least 'on track'.

However, if you wish to believe that there is an inherent order, meaning & 'rhythm' - if you will, to the markets, all markets ... and even, to each individual stock; ... and if you believe in the possibility that technical analysis, objective, thorough, and patient enough .... can assist the analyst/investor in deciphering, identifying, hearing, seeing, and capitalizing on, the clues of the next move... then, this 'order', 'meaning', and 'rhythm'.... can indeed be identified -- and thus found
to provide these valuable clues of timing.

Technical analysis work does indeed give substance to the perception that there are, in fact, predictable, trade-able cycles, in all investment markets, when an individual is willing to investigate, with
an open & patient mind, to find that this is so.

It is not technical timing work that has failed; it is those attempting to use it, while not using/understanding it adequately/correctly/wisely...that is the the "failure" -- the learning curve yet to be learned, turned, & completed, & usefully, productively, profitably used.

Anyone who grasps even a glimpse of technical analysis, and it's inherent underlying philosophy -- and its tools of 'assist & insight', into market timing; appreciates this fact of 'useful predictability'.

Many there are, who listen; few there are, who truely hear.
------------------------------------------------
Here is a re-copy, of an excerpt of LGB's recent post:
----------------------------____________________________________
For someone 20 years old I'd tell em to dollar
cost average into mutual funds for the next 40 years REGARDLESS of where the DOW or
Gold is, and if they want to get technical later on, more power to em. Timing fails for most
individuals. Timing has failed for most analysts. Diversified equity holdings have been the best
overall strategy for most investors for a hundred years and that'l be the case for the next
hundred.

Hot from the press:
September 24, 1997

Remarks Supporting Mark, Yen
Prompt Slide in U.S. Currency

Dow Jones Newswires

NEW YORK -- The dollar tumbled against the yen
Wednesday after a Japanese finance official suggested
that the weekend Group of Seven statement on
strengthening the yen was not being understood by
currency traders. The dollar also slipped against the
mark.

Late in New York, the dollar was quoted at 120.37 yen,
down from 122.13 yen late Tuesday in New York. The
U.S. currency was also quoted at 1.7725 marks, down
from 1.7940 marks.

The dollar retreated over three yen before recovering
slightly later in global trading after Eisuke Sakakibara,
Japan's closely watched foreign exchange sage, said
currency traders "fail to understand" that a weekend
Group of Seven statement was "very strong on the
dollar-yen relationship."

The communique by the G-7 -- composed of the U.S.,
Japan, Canada, the U.K., Germany, France and Italy --
warned of "excessive" yen depreciation. However, the
dollar has remained well-bid against the yen in recent
days.

But Mr. Sakakibara, Vice Minister of International
Affairs at Japan's Ministry of Finance, touched a nerve in
currency markets, which are jittery that Japanese or U.S.
officials may talk the dollar lower in an effort to ease
trade tensions between the two countries.

A weak yen bolsters Japanese exports but irks U.S.
companies, like automobile manufacturers, who compete
aggressively at home and abroad.

Elsewhere, tough talk by German Bundesbank President
Hans Tietmeyer pushed the dollar lower against the
mark.

In an advance copy of an interview in the Flensburger
Tageblatt to be published Thursday, Mr. Tietmeyer said:
"We in Germany will do everything to ensure that the
mark remains a strong currency and doesn't depreciate
against the world's major currencies."

Currency traders sold the dollar for marks for fear Mr.
Tietmeyer's saber-rattling may presage a German credit
tightening. An increase in German interest rates boosts
the yield on mark-denominated assets, spurring mark
buying.

Mr. Tietmeyer remark's easily eclipsed German
economic data. September consumer prices in the
western German state of Hesse fell 0.3% from August
and rose 1.8% from September 1996.

Germany's trade surplus narrowed to 11.1 billion marks
in July from 13.1 billion marks in June, which was revised
from a previously reported 13.4 billion marks.

Analysts said currency traders reaction to Messrs.
Sakakibara and Tietmeyer was overwrought.

"The dollar is probably going to stay bid for a while," said
Vicki Schmelzer-Alicea, vice president, corporate sales
at WestDeutsche Landesbank in New York.














Return to top of page


Copyright  1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

For those with an interest, here are HUI charts. Daily and weekly.

Witchita re your 18:03 you stumped me. I know the tune, kind of a Glen Campbell kinda thing. Now as to never raining in CA though, ElNino's gonna hand us some nasty flooding this year if history is any guide... I got a back porch full of mudslide up my Keester in 1981/82 El Nino. It was pretty bad. Caught a lot of warmwater fish off the coast though!

And for the XAU. Both daily and weekly.

Let me see what my number is. I am looking for some to plug into my lotto picks for the week.....

CARL: and all BGO followers. This site may be of interest. Not updated for Wednesday as of this post. Note C$ prices. Site to me courtesy of Byron I think.
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/zdisplay.phtml?cbase=BGOT

Elf: Here is your continuing favorite. HM, daily and weekly. ... Needs volume. ........ Next is pitchers of the granddaughter. ... ;- )

September 24, 1997
Buffett has big paper profit in Salomon deal

WASHINGTON, ( Reuter ) - Wednesday was pay day for for Warren Buffett.
Ten years after investing $700 million to save Salomon Brothers from the clutches of a hostile takeover, the billionaire investor saw his investment pay off when Travelers Group Inc. agreed to buy the New York investment house for $9 billion.

That makes Buffett's investment, which he has parlayed into a 19 percent stake, worth about $1.5 billion. In a statement, Buffett said Travelers Chief Executive Sanford Weill has "demonstrated genius in creating huge value for his shareholders" over several decades, an apparent indication of his support for the deal.

Salomon's stock closed at $76.375, up $5.31 on the New York Stock Exchange, making Buffett's stake worth more than $1.5 billion. The one-day gain alone was worth $113 million.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BROKERS-SALOMON-BUFFE.html

391195 has a sweet ring to it...HEY TED.......I see you can cut and paste now..You gonna be a 'puter genious....How you doing ??? Have some friends visiting up in your area....

LGB: I share your concern for winter 97/98. I live on a flood plain here in Puddle City, OR and received 5 ft of water in the lower ( non-living area ) of the house, in Feb 96. .... Hope for cold weather so the stuff stays in the mountains as snow. ...... From the sounds of it, cold weather is not one of your options.

David re your 18:32. I would agree with your post except for a couple of issues. First, as I have tried to point out before, a valid analytical predictive model requires a LOT of data. Perhaps a few thousand years of DOW Jones type market activity in comparison to economies in comparison to Gold, in comparison to political and socialogical factors etc etc.

That MIGHT yield enough data to build a predicitve model that has some statistical validity. With our tiny moment in history however, I don't see how we can infer much about cycles regardless of the TA applied.

Secondly and related, our ecomomy, our marketplace, our political climate, and our fiscal & monetary policies are constantly evolving and changing. This further distorts efforts to build predicitve models. How do you account for the possibility that we may elect another Jimmy Carter in a couple years? How do you factor in the added inflow of revenues into 401K plans/thus mutual funds since this is a recent phenomena brought about by Congressional legislation? We just had a huge capitol gains tax cut for example. Even the Government analysts are shocked by the rapidly declining deficit in spite of their abvious agenda at wanting to paint a "Rosier than real" picture for us when they made the projections. We have literally hundreds of issues like this which must be factored in to any valid "cycle" strategy. This removes all the reference points we'd need to build a good model re "cycles". It's an interesting exercise, especially with today's computing power available to all, but I continue to find myself a skeptic.

6PAK: Re Buffett pay-day. He had an 18% stake in Salomon, and a say in the decision to do the deal. It looks like he is getting out of stocks, or at least the high-flyers. We need to try and figure out what he does, take Travelers stock or cashes in.

Hey Nailz! Yeah,I'm another Bill Gates...eh!...Like RJ said,a monkey could be taught to cut+paste......No house guests @ the moment...Will be heading out to Scaterie Island the next nice day...

Ohhhh. YOU have friends in MY area.....WHERE???....

Hey Kitco Gloom & Doomers..how come no posts on "NORA" yet? I'm disappointed in this obvious lapse! Where are the predictions that this "El Nino" based Hurricane is the precurser to a market crash?? ( PS Earl, I share your concerns about the El Nino though.....if it's true to form most of it will remain south of you...Central to Southern CA, and in spite of the ignorant assertions of someone who stated I don't know what I'm speaking of relative to this event, I have studied the El Nino phenomenon. After it bit me in the Wazoo before, I took definite notice. )

Hurricane Nora heads for mainland and portends market crash for tomorrow!
The end is NEAR

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Gold Stock Rally in Progress?

25/09/97, Forex: Tietmeyer and Mr Yen halt
dollar

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 25 1997

By Simon Kuper

The D-Mark and yen rose against the dollar yesterday after two of the
strongest voices in the foreign exchange market spoke out for their currencies.

Hans Tietmeyer, Bundesbank president, told the Flensburger Tageblatt,a
small German local newspaper, that Germany would do all it could to ensure
that the D-Mark did not fall against other major currencies. "A depreciating
D-Mark is not right for us," he said. The currency jumped 2.3 pfennigs against
the D-Mark to close in London at DM1.772. The Bank of France was said to
have bought dollars at DM1.7715.

Eisuke Sakakibara, Japan's vice minister for international affairs who is known
to traders as Mr Yen, said this weekend's Group of Seven communiqu on
currencies was "clearly a strong message on exchange rates, especially the
dollar/yen rate". This remark was taken to mean that the communiqu had
called for a halt to the yen's slide. The currency jumped 3 after he spoke, but
later softened somewhat to close in London at 120.0 to the dollar, 1.5
above Tuesday's close.

Currency strategists said that both Mr Tietmeyer and Mr Sakakibara were
reacting to the rise in the dollar that had followed the weekend's G7 meeting in
Hong Kong. They said the comments showed that Japan and Germany
wanted to keep the dollar within tight ranges of about 115-120 to the yen
and DM1.75-DM1.80 to the D-Mark.

Franz-Christoph Zeitler, a Bundesbank council member, further supported the
D-Mark when he said he expected the foreign exchange market to take
increasing note of improving German economic fundamentals. He also said
that yesterday's tame west German consumer price data for September gave
no "all clear" signal on inflation. Belief has gathered in recent weeks that the
German economy is recovering and that prices are starting to rise. Paul
Lambert, senior currency economist at UBS in London, pointed to strong
gross domestic product data emerging from Finland, Ireland and Spain. He
said: "Even French consumer spending has got stronger. Europe is
recovering."

Sterling fell with the dollar, dropping 3.8 pfennigs against the D-Mark to
DM2.857 and closing barely changed against the US currency at $1.613.

There are some similarities between events this week and those that
followed the G7 meeting in April - but only some. Then, as now, the
G7 made a statement calling for the dollar's rise to stop. Then it stood
at about 126 to the yen; this weekend, it was at about 122.


Then, as now, the market initially ignored the statement and sent the dollar
higher. But then, as now, various officials said that the statement was a strong
one. Then, as now, concern about Japan's growing trade surplus was a key
issue.

In April the comments struck the dollar, which fell 12 in a fortnight. Now,
however, most currency strategists believe that a sharp dollar fall is unlikely.
Paul Meggyesi, senior currency economist at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell in
London, points out that in April Tokyo officials could credibly threaten traders
with a Japanese interest rate rise. Now Japan's economy seems mired and
few expect a rate increase before New Year.

The dollar, D-Mark and yen continue to move sharply on a day-to-day
basis, but they remain within defined ranges. The strong US economy is
buoying the dollar, but Japanese and German officials are stopping the
currency from soaring. Margaret Thatcher may have said that you
cannot buck the markets, but when it comes to the dollar, yen and
D-Mark, the markets rarely buck governments. Mr Lambert says the
market would require a strong trigger to break the established ranges.
He says that moves are so sharp at present because investors have no
clear view of the future direction of the main currencies. "People don't
have confident positions at the moment," he says. So when an exchange
rate move goes against them, they quickly cut their positions,
exacerbating the move. A rate rise somewhere might change the
picture.

Donald, Thanks for the BGO site. I was too early as usual, but I like the volume. Maybe a bottom at last.

Nora is to nice name for a hurricane with and juice to it. Sounds like someone's auntie. I vote a name change to LGB. Alot of wind, floods, even a market crash. Then LGB would have to live with a namesake he pooh-poohed! It would serve you right Jerry, uh - I mean LGB.

George - saw your note earlier with a bit of optimism regarding recent gold stock action. Would this at all leverage the metal out of its channel - if the stox took off? Do you see any sure things out there? You know, inevitable sweethearts?

Hurricane LGB, I think I like it! But I didn't post that Jerry Favors post, some other comedian whom I commend!! Now, as to Mining shares, remember that I keep recommending SSC, which climbed yet another 7% today...Only "TA" pick I've made public here, from any market sector. I don't know of a gold stock that has beat it in the past 2 weeks.

Perspectives: The fragile fantasy of money

Originally published: SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 13 1997

James Buchan reflects on coins and banknotes, finding them both fraud
and consolation

I first thought about money in 1978, in the city of Jeddah on the Red Sea. I
thought about banknotes, collected in bundles and delivered to my hand in
an unsealed airmail envelope on the last Wednesday of each month. I had
had money before, handled, spent, hoarded, won and lost money, but
never in such quantity or in so exotic and repellent a shape. I had come to
the city not to accumulate money but to evade it, or rather to delay my
induction into manhood; and yet here I was signing for 10,000 Saudi
Arabian riyals in bills, the price of a month's labour, boredom and misery.

In those days, I worked at a newspaper I'll call the Saudi News. It was in
a plywood building at the end of the airport runway, and the newspaper
and the building and the airport have since vanished; for they were
embarrassing physical reminders of an earlier epoch in Saudi history, the
years before 1973, before money. The quadrupling of the dollar price of
crude oil at the end of that year had detonated the world's trading system,
and money was streaming into Saudi Arabia as once the silver of America
into Spain.

The burden of world history had passed to a few pale, fat men gliding like
phantoms at noon towards their Lincoln Town cars. Europeans and
Americans waited for days in the anterooms of dozing assistant deputy
undersecretaries of state. The British, who had once set up and knocked
down these princelings, wheedled and bribed with the best of them.

I was indifferent to my sum of money and left it uncounted, not just
because a 100-riyal note really would not be missed in a 10,000-riyal
bundle; but also because I sensed that indifference, the vice and virtue of
the British, was my chief protection in this jail and linked me to our
masters, who themselves never really believed in the prosperity that had
fallen on them and could quite happily return to herding sheep and growing
dates and fleecing pilgrims.

Nothing about the city had any permanence or conviction. F-15s gathered
dust at the end of the runway amid a litter of surface-to-air missiles;
palaces looked ready to tumble the day their wooden scaffolding came
down: restless and indifferent expenditure, like the million dollars the
Crown Prince had lost as a young man in half an hour at Monte Carlo.

What need had I of money? There was nothing I wanted to buy in the
souk, except a camera with a long lens to photograph baboons, and
whisky, which came in in the holds of C-130 aircraft and cost 250 riyals a
bottle ( about 40 in 1978 money, and 100 today ) . I had no interest in
what people now call positional goods, for where were my witnesses, my
publicity?

I couldn't put out the money at interest, for interest was haram
( anathema ) , and the banks paid their depositors just half a per cent of
commission ( while they lent their money abroad at eight, and earned
fabulous profits and no doubt a fair stay in hell ) . I could not own real estate
for rent, for that was denied to foreigners. I could not put the money at
risk, for there was no stock market, just as there was no income tax or
social security.

I read Adam Smith for the first time that year. I saw that of his three great,
original and constituent orders of society, I belonged not with the
landowner or capitalist, but with the labourer. I received labourer's wages,
whose real value arose not in the money I received but in what could be
got with them and that was nothing. I realised that I was a prisoner or a
slave.

In my cauldron of solitude, I thought I should try to learn to think and, for
the first time, down ways not chosen for me by teachers or professors or
the set questions of newspapers and television. I thought there must be
some reason why I was doing what I was doing. For a while, I decided I
was learning a trade, but I sensed that I was the last man in the world to
have learned hot-metal typesetting. No doubt I was also learning Arabic,
but in reality, I was forgetting even the moderate amount I knew.

So my purpose was, it seemed, not to learn a trade or Arabic nor to
experience the dignity and sociability of labour. My purpose must have
been to acquire money. What was this thing, this rectangle of watermarked
paper, engraved by De La Rue in London, worthless in itself but available
for commerce or hoarding by consent?

It seemed to me that I should indeed try to better myself: not by saving, but
by thinking. I would study this thing, make it my life, wrestle with it as
Jacob with the angel.

I was not interested in the operation of money in society or the creation of
social wealth. The science we now call economics seemed to me modest in
its aims. In reality, economics seemed to have fallen prey to the very social
mechanisms it attempted to describe and authorise; and the various
theories merely confirmed or denied the privileges or fantasies of social
classes. Even so, I busied myself with economics, rather as one might learn
the rules of baseball.

I wanted to pierce the veil of money not to find some piece of metaphysics
- value, utility or labour - which resides in the economists' money like yet
another Russian doll, but the emotions and sensations that nestled there.

I thought I should try to penetrate that psychological mystery: to begin at
the point at which economics leaves off: to work not with the statistics of
CIF imports or the price of dates at inland markets but with the insights of
imaginative literature and, for my own times, the symptomatic patter of
bankers and thieves.

As books arrived, and passed through the customs, and were read, my
empty head began to rattle with the coins of literature: the single gulden
Nikolai finds in his waistcoat pocket at Roulettenburg in The Gambler, the
gold of Silas Marner in the firelight; Sir Thomas Bertram's gift of a
thousand a year; the bonds presented to Josepha in a cornet of sugared
almonds; the forged coupon in the Tolstoy story; the hail of silver in the
Synoptic Gospels.

Eventually I read the Quixote, which appeared at the crest of the first great
money inflation of modern times, but gives up its meaning only reluctantly
and only to the force of concentration. Where the world saw windmills,
like Don Quixote I saw giants. In 1980, I picked fights with several
influential men and was politely shown the way to the airport. I converted
my bundles of riyals into sterling: they made, I guess, about 30,000, or
the equivalent in purchasing power of about 75,000 in the money of
1997. Because I regarded money with suspicion, I changed it into property
of one type or another; and that accorded with the spirit of an inflationary
age.

The money was, in its time, a mortgaged house in Lavender Hill, a slow
racehorse, stock in the Dresdner Bank, an excessive number of 18th
century engravings of St Petersburg, an apartment in lower Manhattan,
stock in supermarket corporations. At each transition, it shed chips off the
side to stockbrokers, picture dealers, realtors, the Inland Revenue, the
Customs and Excise, the IRS and the Federal Taxation Office, but always
disintegrated into more money than at its previous dissolution.

I travelled the world at this period, and assembled an obsessive collection
of banknotes which I stored in the drawer of an old desk my mother had
left me in her will. There were Yemeni and Iranian riyals, Kuwaiti dinars,
Iraqi dinars, West and East German marks, US and Fijian dollars, zlotys,
roubles, rupees, shekels, Ecuadorean sucres, Mexican and Chilean pesos,
French and Swiss francs, English, Turkish and Egyptian pounds.

I kept them because I sensed their value evaporating, their moneyness
seeping into the old satinwood, till they were just coloured paper you
couldn't even write on. And, at some moment, I cannot remember when,
looking at that confetti, I had a thought: I realised that moneyness was not
a permanent attribute of those pieces of paper, but attended them for a
period of their existence; in reality, attended them only so long as they
were in motion.

At about that time, a change came over my life. The money from Jeddah
began to breed, first slowly, then convulsively. While I slept, or was drunk,
or made love, or smoked a Benson on the porch, my money worked; and,
as far as I could tell, with smaller effort and for greater reward than I did.
My future receded down a darkling enfilade of compound interest, as if
two mirrors had been placed to face each other.

In Britain, Germany, Central Europe, Russia, Latin America - indeed
everywhere I went, but particularly in Britain - money was quickly
displacing all other psychological goals. Duty, religion, public service,
liberty, equality, justice or aristocracy - all the cultural flesh that clothed the
bones of money for those that possessed it - all became suspect: only
money, it seemed, was to be trusted. In Russia and Eastern Europe,
money took on the character of emancipation and modernity more
comprehensively than even the early paper money of the US or the first
issues of assignats in revolutionary Paris. Only money could measure
success or failure, happiness or misery. Only money could reward or
punish.

Now, I had learned by then that money is our greatest invention, has done
more to make our civilisation even than letters - for those must be
translated, whereas money is the language that almost every human being
speaks and understands; enabled the movement of people and ideas; given
us world wars and monuments of architecture; transformed our notions of
luxury or want. As a means, I saw that money was all but absolute: it could
now realise every fantasy of creation or murder. And at that moment it was
transforming once again: into an absolute end. Money was valued not for
its power to convey wishes: rather it was the goal of all wishes. Money
was enthroned as the God of Our Times.

I felt I was running out of time. In the British Library, to which I walked
each day, I was haunted by a phantom rival: I feared that somewhere in
that domed room, a stranger was reading the same books; and that one
day my slips would come back to me marked "Out to..." and they would
be defeat and death to me, as the black flags at the Pole were to Scott,
Wilson, Evans and Bowers.

One Sunday, in Hampstead, I walked into a junk fair and saw, on a table
among fake Bohemian glass and ratty trinkets, a set of currency notes in a
cellophane wrapper. Behind the table was a small old woman.

"How much are these?"

She looked at me. She was trying to establish their value in British money,
which was not easy, because they had no value to her; and because she
did not know of my obsession, did not know their value to me. She could
not judge my willingness to buy, only my ability, and for that she must look
to my appearance, which was not encouraging: I was wearing jeans and
flip-flops and had not shaved.

"It'll have to be 25. They're...."

I knew what they were. At that moment, I thought ( though not necessarily
in this order ) : how deep are the ironies of my topic that for these currency
notes, which never ever bought anything, I am about to exchange
something that'll buy this lady heat or light or Kaffee und Kuchen; and that
I am now reversing the famous law that holds that bad money drives out
good. The money in its wrapper on the table was not just bad, but the
worst ever minted.

I picked up the notes, and put them down again. The topmost was
biscuit-coloured, watermarked, in good condition. Its face value was a
hundred crowns. It was dated January 1 1943, in Austrian German and
signed by a Jakob Edelstein. Its reverse showed the sum and a warning in
High German which read: Any person counterfeiting or copying these
bills or handling forged bills will be severely punished. In a roundel
was a nice portrait of Moses carrying the Ten Commandments.

I paid 20.

These notes which were signed by the Chief Elder of the Council of Jews
in the concentration camp of Theresienstadt in Bohemia and issued as
wages or dole, barely circulated, according to the historian of the town,
and were used chiefly as counters in card games.

Jakob Edelstein was murdered at Birkenau on July 20 1944. The notes
stood in the same relation to reality as the postcards certain deported
prisoners sent from Poland: the journey was exhausting but without
incident. The fraud and consolation that inheres in all money becomes, in
these Ghettokronen, pure deceit, pure fantasy. People believed in them as
we all believe in money, because without it we cannot live in the world,
which presses in, becomes a prison at night clanking with long trains setting
out for the north. As Byron kept a skull upon his desk, so I keep these
notes in their cellophane wrapper - here, on the machine on which I'm
writing this sentence - so that I do not forget the people of Theresienstadt
and my eventual pauper's grave.

Extracted from Frozen Desire: An Inquiry into the Meaning of
Money. Published by Picador at 17.99.

With Churchillian clarity & logic Guest Guru Milhouse analyzes Alan Greenspans "secret weapon to ensure economy doesnt dive. M-3 accelerated growth is keystone to higher GOLD prices:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse831.html

Hello All - - I want to pose the question as to whether an individual can also act as his own contrarian indicator . . . The channel gold finds itself in since the announcement in July is getting verrry boring and frustrating to observe. In short, I'm losing interest and feel like going to weekly checks of the PM markets ( I currently check PMs and lurk Kitco's forum a few times a day ) .

BUT, by the same inner fellings, I can't help but think that with these new feelings, I might also be acting as my own ultimate contrarian indicator, portending the growth of that same feeling among hordes of gold bugs. If that is the case, we may see the needed testing of 300 and the subsequent reversal we've all been waiting for.

These kinds of feelings are best summarized in a T-Shirt I once saw,

"I'm schitzophrenic"

" . . . And so am I"

LGB ( your 16:37 ) : I was not privy to the "gold over the centuries" valuation post you read, but I have to disagree with your scenarios. From a statistical standpoint it "NAFTAs" ( you know that sound ) .

Why on earth would you choose the day in 1980 that gold reached 850? Well, I can guess . . . :- ) If you looked at the year's average or mean fix, not the extreme hi's and/or low's, you would find the "equal value per ounce of gold to be true for over 2,000 years, including today. For example, a 1970 Mustang at 2500 cost 64 oz of gold @ 35/oz. Today, a loaded Mustang @ 20,000 would cost 61 oz @ 325. The biblical "400 loaves of bread per ounce" also still holds.

While I agree that gold has yet to take its final hit, the trend has yet to be broken, gold's value has remained unchanged for a couple millenia.

Best Regards, Niner

Kiwi,all: I have the Bank for International Settlements "Core Principles for Banking Supervision", released Sept 22, 1997. However it is a 230k PDF file -- is this too big to transfer?
For those who are interested in going directly, the home page of the BIS is: http://www.bis.org/index.htm

TED,
The first wave is coming up?......wuuuuuuuffffffff!
http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/pages/nfrnt04.html
Another thailand crisis,,,,,closed down more financial banks?,....woopy,have to company my aunt to withdraw the save...

Earl: Thanks for the pretty HM chart. My even older favorite is CDE, which got back up to 14 today. In recent months CDE has been stronger than HM, perhaps because of its silver. Ted used to like these two, too, I seem to recall. ( There are those recurring 2's toos twos again. )

GO ASTROS AND DODGERS

Go Orioles and Roberto spitin Alomar

Elf's ID changed since last night. Will the golden elf's change, too? Just checking both names to see what ID is generated now.

Go PIRATES and GIANTS!!! Hi Elf!...good memory dude....Made some money on CDE and HM and they still have a place in my heart...

It never fails EVERYTIME WE HAVE A GOLD RALLY SOMEBODY SABATOGES THIS SITE!!! THERE AIN'T NO DAMN DATES AND SUBMIT BUTTON

TALLY HO

Hi JIN!.....it's sounding pretty grim in your area what with a collapsing currency,KLSE,retail business and now a run on the banks....Throw in the HAZE and you got bad times younger brother....but you say things will get WORSE ( ouch! ) ....Makes Cape Breton seem like a paradise!

NotAGoldBug - Have you looked at the new real time Get trading program?

Niner re your 21:05. I didn't pick golds peak, I used $600/oz. as the reference point. Remember that gold traded in a $480 to $600 range for quite awhile before dropping to the lower ranges. I picked 1980 because that's when I bought a Civic DX sedan, and because that was the beginning of the final 2 decades of this MIllenium. Also, in 1980 ( and every year since then ) , I've seen, read, and been sent ads for DOZENS of articles and Newsletters by Stock "Bears" making predictions on Gold and the DOW based on their "analysis". History has now shown such perpetual bears to be the total FOOLS that they have been all along. All that said, I still believe Gold has a place in a portfolio or I wouldn't have just bought some. I'm far more bullish on Platinum and Silver however, due to commercial uses and supply issues involved. And I even believe the quite OBVIOUS statement that I see here every day. Namely, SOME day the market will crash and Gold will rise, ( Not a very BOLD prediction now is it? )

Go Giants! Knock in another homer Barry. Oops, this is a gold site..uh did you notice Barry Bonds wears a gold earing? If the Giants win the pennant it could cause a rush on gold earings and.........

David, LGB: From page 5&6 of 'Weapons Systems and Political Stability' C. Quigley 1983 University Press of America. " This rather silly interchange is of some significance because the student's attitude about buying the gun with some fraction of the money assumes a structure of law and order under which commercial agreements are peaceful, final and binding...at the time I thought it was a very naive frame of mind with which to go to war against the Nazis, who chose guns over butter because they knew that the possession of guns would allow them to take butter from their neighbors, like Denmark, who had it." ........ I would probably do like the student and both of you guys did and try to come up with another alternative. But you can bet that the big players, particularly in the emerging nations, think more like Quigley. And as far as gold is concerned you can bet that there are guys who want it all and don't play by gentleman's rules.

Notice how the market can not withstand the slightest strength in Gold. BC it means the paper game may be coming to an end and they dont want to hold til the end of the day.

What strength in gold are you referring to WW?? $323??

If My Dodgers dont make it then the Astros will kick Giant Butt. And pull out those SF golden earings!

Dodgers!! They choked! They had a 2 game lead!! ( Course I'd choke too if I was smokin that LA smog!! )

If you did not notice Gold was up a buck.7 which is strength considering recent action. If you will notice in my last post in reference to Gold I used the adjective "slightist" before the noun "Gold". Ye must learn thy grammar and intimation.

Thus saith LGB in his 19:56 post: "...a valid analytical predictive model requires a LOT of data. Perhaps a few thousand years of DOW Jones type market activity..." .... Well, not really, LGB. Neural network theory has been fairly successful in predicting short term trends and separating them out from noise. It analyses 'intuitively'. http://www.duke.edu/~dhp/index.html Not that I would bet the farm on it.

I no longer live in the Beautiful and Bountious SOUTHERN California. However, I noticed all the vicious slander re the south always flowed from No. Cal. and not from So. Cal as the superior area can have no inferiority complex like No. Cal and its bloomin grip about water vis a vis the Southland. I remember watching a Dodgers Game up in SF and the idiots up there chuck Oranges at our Dodgers and The Great Tommy La Sorda. When SF came South no repeat/ Just recognition of No. Cals inferiority vis a vis LA area.

LGB: ( 22:12 ) - I'll admit you didn't pick the absolute peak, but it's still an abnormally high valuation of gold witnessed over the last few hundred years . . . ( Perhaps an anomolous peak, the likes of which we should see again before the next millenia arrives . . . ? )

On a lighter topic, had those people who spent 2,100 or so for a Subaru in ~1971 put their money in Subaru stock instead, they would have been millionaires by the late 70's . . . One supposes they could have driven an old VW Bug in the meantime . . .

Best Regards, Niner

WW, And is Tommy Lasorda still using that "Slim Fast"? Cause if not he sure NEEDS to be!!

Hey Neophyte, all I know ( remember now I'm just a country boy ) all I know is that in my business, which is rocket science, ( specifically communication, weather, and defense Satellite design and manufacturing ) , we take stable inert materials, and try to design predictive models to prevent failures in space ( where it's mighty tough and expensive to FIX a failure ) .

In my area of expertise, there is extensive Reliability Prediction activity involved, as well as design activity. We work with probably several thousand ( or million ) times as much data as the "analysts" I see here, in order to make "predictions" on the reliability of our design models. Works pretty well when you have a staff of thousands and have problems as "simple" as ours.

The markets are far more complex. Some things can be predicted, dollar falls, inflation rises, market falls, gold goes up, etc., but these Long wave theories and such are so simplistic, and the data base so shert term and sketchy as to be totally LAUGHABLE for anyone who wants to have a genuine tool for predicitng market "cycle" behaviour.

We'll see if we have the predicted cyclic "crash" for example, that's supposed to begin tomorrow. ( Wow, just a mere week after Puetze's "crash" prediction! )

The XAU is now in a long term up trend and short term down trend. Gold is now in both a short and long term down trend. Using all of the indicators, including the indicators listed below,however, both gold and the XAU should be bullish both short and long term. The dollar is now bearish both short and long term. The crb is bullish both short and long term; however, there may be a very short term drop in the crb. Interest rates will probably stablize here and, possibly, move up for a very short period of time ; however, the long term and short term trends remain down for interesrat rates. The major stock market indicies remain bullish both long and short term; however, if we have a down move in the major market indicies tomorrow, we may have reached a top in the same.

Donald re your 20:48, philosophical treatise on money. I'm reminded of the very oft misquoted biblical passage which states that;

"The LOVE of money is A root of many kinds of evil" .... and "The desire to become rich has pireced men's hearts with many a pang..."

I think we still have a pulse in our dead cat.

8 pm PDT
ALTHOUGH STRONG INLAND WINDS ARE OF SOME CONCERN...THE MAIN THREAT
OVER THE U.S. WITH NORA SHOULD BE RAINFALL. INTERESTS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD NOT BE FOCUSSING ON THE PRECISE TRACK OF
THE CYCLONE CENTER SINCE THIS IS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...
PARTICULARLY AFTER IT MOVES INLAND. RAINS ARE ALREADY SPREADING
WELL OUT AHEAD OF NORA...OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND CALIFORNIA.

The Dodger's loss by the score of 4-1 is scientific evidence that generally if not always indicates a major stock market crash within 24 hours so by this time tomorrow Mr.LGB, you will be eating crow.

Donald: Can you elaborate on John Murphys' comments. I draw from
CNBC as often as I can. Sorry I'm just a lurker, but I only have visceral investing skill.

test

Economist predicts Y2K-based recession
Robert L. Scheier ( News, 09/22/97 )

Many people predict doom and gloom over the year 2000, but few will put specific odds on big trouble. Wall Street economist Edward Yardeni is doing exactly that. Many consultants have already warned of how a year 2000 bug at a supplier, for example, could shut down an auto assembly plant. But Yardeni's warning is unusual because it is so specific and because of his strong reputation as an economic forecaster.
After the 1987 stock market crash, Yardeni defied conventional wisdom by predicting that the Dow Jones industrial average would reach 5,000 by 1993. When it reached that point in 1995, he predicted a rise to 10,000 by the turn of the century. The Dow is already more than halfway to that level with more than two years to go.
Yardeni, a former chief economist at other Wall Street firms and an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, admitted his recession prediction isn't precise.
It isn't based on original research, but on public documents from such sources as the Federal Reserve Bank, the Internal Revenue System and European banking regulators. ``I'm not going to pretend that forecasting is a science,'' Yardeni said. His recession alarm is instead a warning that governments and businesses need to do more to solve the year 2000 problem. In a report issued last week, Yardeni predicted there is a 35% chance that year 2000 software bugs will cause ``at least a mild global recession'' in that year. That's up 5% from the odds he gave in mid-July. ``The more I read, the more convinced I am that some economic disruptions are inevitable,'' wrote Yardeni, chief economist at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, Inc., a London-based investment bank. ``The year 2000 problem is a serious threat to the global economy. Yet it isn't being taken seriously enough.'' Most systems will be fixed on time and thus will be able to distinguish the 20th and 21st centuries, Yardeni said. But because companies are so tightly linked via computer, even a few small failures could have a domino effect, he said.
Last week, for example, U.S. Rep. Stephen Horn ( R-Calif. ) gave almost half of all federal agencies grades of ``D'' or ``F'' on their year 2000 work and said the White House doesn't have the proper ``sense of urgency'' about fixing the bug. David Iacino, a senior manager heading the year 2000 effort at BankBoston Corp. in Boston, said Yardeni's prediction is ``on the reasonable side'' based on the progress to date toward solving the problem. But he predicted financial institutions will step up the pace of repairs and thus greatly reduce the risk.
And bank regulators ``are into heavy contingency planning'' to make sure any year 2000 problems don't spread,'' Iacino said. ``They can't allow that kind of break in the faith that this country has in its financial institutions.''

APH,

I have read the brochure that trading techniques has sent
our for the RT offerings. Im a little disappointed because the
most affordable is the FutureSource RT but I trade stocks..
CQG is available but the cost of their ( minimum ) data and
RT Get could run approx. $800.00 monthly.. This is more than
I would like to spend. Im very mixed because I dearly want
intraday data..

Are you going to upgrade to RT Get?? I may just change my
style and go strictly to futures but really enjoy stocks. I
did talk with CQG a while back and they said they may make
some concessions for the individual trader who is running RT
Get.. Possibly a less expensive alternative.

How about you?

Yes sports fans,you read it correctly and i did say gold at 3,000 and that should occur before the next partial luner eclipse,especially if said eclipse comes after a Giant victory.It's all in the bottle ah charts as is the coming market crash ( now less than TEN hours away ) and please don't confuse this with last week's crash as that was only a prelude to the disaster that will hit us in the @&%$#& with the full fury of hurricane Nora and other assorted catastrophies that are about to smash us into minute little pieces.Not a pretty picture,no sir-EEEEEEE! arggghhhh! Beavis, you stop that

Swiss banks accused of making money off Marcos billions


LONDON, Sept 24 ( AFP ) - Swiss banks on Wednesday faced fresh
accusations of "profiting from the proceeds of corruption and
torture," when it was reported here that some were making money
trading with gold bullion amassed by the ex-president of the
Philippines Ferdinand Marcos.
Channel 4 News said that next Monday in Philadelphia, United
States, an American lawyer would seek an injunction against several
US branches of three Swiss banks for 500 million dollars.
Robert Swift, who campaigns for compensation for the victims of
the Marcos regime, told the programme he was in possession of
documents showing that Swiss banks had advised the Marcos fund
owners how to launder many millions of dollars of gold bullion
reportedly stolen by Marcos from state coffers.
Swiss banks have repeatedly said that the Marcos millions --
some 500 million dollars -- were frozen after the president and his
wife fled Manila for Hawaii in 1986 when they were overthrown by a
popular revolt.
Marcos died shortly afterwards and the Marcos family, Philippine
authorities and victims of his regime have argued ever since over
what should happen to the money.
But Channel 4 News said it has documents which showed that in
1986 more than a million ounces of gold owned by the two Marcos
children were transferred from the Union Bank of Switzerland to five
smaller banks.
In 1993, the assets were sold and the proceeds transferred to
the Swiss Bank Vorporation, said Channel 4.
And in June this year assets totalling 466 million dollars were
transferred to accounts in a small Swiss bank, Julius Baer.
"The means of transferring it had all the earmarks of
money-laundering," Swift told the programme.
Channel 4 also said that in May one of the Marcos children,
Ferdinand Marcos Junior, arranged to sell via two banks two tonnes
of gold, one tonne to a Hong Kong gold dealer and another to a
London bank.
On the programme Swift also said that the source who revealed
the transactions, described as being "high within the Swiss banking
industry," would be revealed in court on Monday.
Switzerland has faced a mounting scandal this year over the gold
and other assets deposited by Jews who were later murdered by the
Nazis, and since "lost" by the banks.