Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Sat Sep 27 1997 00:35 - ID#257148)
Napoleon's army to and from Moscow
Now that's a chart

This Net is amazing, have also seen a relief colour map of same thing somewhere,,,

(Sat Sep 27 1997 00:45 - ID#269218)
CDE closes on it's high, Fri., 9/26/97: @ 15. This is a mining stock, that best - not be ignored ... at this time.

CDE bottomed ... even before - the 'crashing/thundering lows,
of early July.

This stock is, and has already, revealed itself;
and silver, as well
before their
mutual time.
( While SSC, also, - in 'humble foot-note' to this rhyme:
might yet awaken us,
to this - important time. )

'The Lead Scouts', of mining shares as a group, are signalling all
of us: short-term traders, & long-term investors alike, that
we, all of us: best be about buying/securing/completing - our
positions, and commitments -- in selected precious metals investments;
including traders' in options .... AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME.

Sincerely, and good fortune to you, and yours;
in your trading, and in your investing .....
David B. Macrory, C.T.A.
Tierra$anta Trading

(Sat Sep 27 1997 00:47 - ID#257148)
Then again, I've always liked the map of the London Underground...
This one's even better, but read the commentaries, the grisly details of the campaign from the first link.. beware the dogs of war.... cave canem

(Sat Sep 27 1997 01:00 - ID#386245)
G'day Aurator. You have just posted what is arguably the best chart ever made ( Napoleon's march to Moscow ) . It is, bar none, my all time favourite!! I was so impressed with it that I had a big copy of it pinned above my desk for many years ( back in the days when I used to work for someone else--I have wised up considerably since then and will NEVER be anything other than self-employed again!! ) . I have spent many happy hours studying that chart. It contains an enormous amount of info. Thanks for posting it, mate.

The Peanut Man
(Sat Sep 27 1997 01:02 - ID#372274)
Multiple Choice Quiz

Why were the dashing Napoleon and the beautiful Josephine childless?
a. Nap was to busy fighting wars
b. Josephine was frigid
c. Their timing was off
d. The affairs of state were overwhelming
e. They slept a BONE...A...Part

(Sat Sep 27 1997 01:47 - ID#386245)
To All:

Just went back and read the comments from about a year ago. Things like "Gold nearing the bottom" and "Share market will top out very soon". "As soon as gold dips under 379, time to buy", "Should go through 395..." etc.

Some of the very respected advisors on this site have been saying the same things for a long, long time. Eventually they will be right!! My point is this: the best time to buy an investment is not when you think it SHOULD move but when it actually DOES move in your direction ON VOLUME. Some think that is happening right now for gold shares. It's your money--you be the judge.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 02:05 - ID#273168)
Canbeera Nick; a breath of fresh air....yup, its the same old story from idealogues. I said the same things too.......but only some of us admit that we WERE WRONG. On the other hand what is happening NOW is soooo....gooood......I can smell it. ( have a pint on me! )

(Sat Sep 27 1997 02:13 - ID#413161)
Earl ( 9/26 16:53 Grandfather died 'years' later??? ) It's not the fact that he died, but that he died a very bitter and unhappy man. He lived in our home the last 6 weeks of his life. He had loved our family dearly, especially my 3 daughters. But those last few weeks he was so despondent that he wouldn't even look at any of us. He knew he didn't have long left to live and he had no hope for anything after this life. Toward the end he wanted to believe, but he had rejected God for so long that he couldn't. In many cases this may be the way that God punishes those who curse and ridicule him. Those who once so boldy denounced Him, die in despair, "having no hope and without God in the world" ( Ephesians 2:12 )

(Sat Sep 27 1997 02:38 - ID#386276)
Hi Nick@C
See the spike in WMC.
What happened? They strike gold or something.
Program on way soon shall make some modifications first.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 02:50 - ID#386276)
More Y2K Urls to peruse. Interesting observations as to wether or not there will be a sharemarket left after 2000.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 03:12 - ID#386245)
Hi Nick@Aussie. I've been watching Western Mining Corp. as well. Two things happening. 1 ) Voisey Bay delayed by environmental impact etc. and 2 ) WMC is one of the biggest Au producers around. If the price of nickel comes good they'll be a fantastic bargain. Probably a good call option play. Gotta get back to the AFL grand final.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 04:13 - ID#255151)

To my Oz and NZ mates--Just lettin' ya know there's one Yank awake, so no funny business!:- ) Nick @ Aussie-- Many thanks for the Y2 links. The more I read about this problem, the more devastating it looks. Not really much an individual can do except prepare themselves and families for the worst.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 04:28 - ID#194225)
When I was in college in 1968, I took a vocational preference test, which indicated I would be most happy as a computer programmer; I didn't really know what one was. But perhaps my "all-nighters" at Wesleyan prepared me for my current career. Been here at work since about 2 AM. But, as predicted, I am enjoying myself.

This is a great group.

Nice couple of days for gold. Heard gold called a "barbaric relic" today on that cable financial channel. Then another commentator responded, I'll take all of that relic you've got.

They said the same thing about George Foreman seven years ago, didn't they?

(Sat Sep 27 1997 04:37 - ID#255151)

Nick @ Aussie--In the link you gave for jp morgan, there is an interesting article about the EMU entitled "You Think The Year 2000 Problem Is Bad?" I highly recommend it. Hi 2--I guess there are 2 Yanks awake, eh?

(Sat Sep 27 1997 04:50 - ID#26793)
AURIC: There are at least 3 Yanks awake.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 04:52 - ID#255151)

Just a test. I am at Kitco, March 22, 1997 and am posting here. Just seeing if I can rewrite history. If this works, I will go to the future and see if I can't make us all rich!

(Sat Sep 27 1997 04:52 - ID#255285)
Auric, cherokee, Sheller, Nick.
Auric, G'day mate, glad to see you're friendly.. am finding it easy to annoy the sh+t out of people here, and spending the rest of the time apologising, don't know if it's cos i is a crass antipodean, a crass contrarian or just cos I is crass. Right now am expecting my risible credit history and compromising photos of me and *8&88 to be published here, have angered cherokee. ..sorry mate..
I am just wondering whether i shall be scalped before or after Mike Sheller cuts his teeth on me. Then again, ever seen a Haka?;- ) )

Nick, thanks mate but credit goes to C. J. Minard and the teacher who assigned the tasks, and the students who did the work and made it easy for,,, what about the London underground..? Or a Monopoly Board-- every see Norman Gunstan in Picadilly Circus with a Monopoly board looking for street directions....;- ) ) )
aurator for now...

(Sat Sep 27 1997 04:53 - ID#26793)
2: I buy all my books at the Atticus Book Store.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 04:54 - ID#255151)

Damn! It was worth a try!

(Sat Sep 27 1997 04:59 - ID#255151)

aurator--Not to worry, we know you're a good bloke! Hi Donald--Eagerly awaiting the info stream!

(Sat Sep 27 1997 05:01 - ID#255285)
March 22 1997
Auric groundhogday.:- )

(Sat Sep 27 1997 05:06 - ID#194225)
Atticus book store? I do not recall the place. But those billowing clouds of left-wing smoke and haze emanating from the campus probably still make it hard to get around in M'town. I hope that poor school is returned some day to its former glory.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 05:07 - ID#255151)
@Back to the Future

aurator--Who knows, maybe in some parallel universe, Homestake is now trading at 10,000!

(Sat Sep 27 1997 05:14 - ID#26793)
NICK@C, AURATOR: My grandfather was born in 1873, in New York City. The family arrived in New York City April 15, 1865, and his Great Grandfather was with them. He was with Napolean on that march to Moscow and had made it back home. My grandfather told me that was the only subject he ever talked about. He apparently had what we now call post traumatic stress disorder. What has always amazed me is that I have a direct living link to that march. I talked to someone who talked to someone who was on that march. My birthday is April 15th. My own Great Grandmother was always able to rembember my birthday because it was the day she got off the boat. She was 18 and when they disembarked they noticed that the whole City of New York was draped in black. It was the day Abraham Lincoln had died. She died in 1940. My reason for telling the story is to show the direct links we all have to the past. We live in a continuum.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 05:21 - ID#255285)
somewhere in the stars...
Donald; Thank you for your gracious gift. Truth from your heart.. My birthday coincides with that of Kitco my stepfather's with yours.
Mike Sheller...observations,----- celestial, culinary or contrary??

(Sat Sep 27 1997 05:21 - ID#26793)
2: It is still a very liberal, and a very good school. Most colleges are liberal. It is age as much as anything that makes us conservatives I think.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 05:24 - ID#255151)

Donald--What a fine story. My Grandfather and Grandmother were both born in 1899, and are still independently living in good health with all their mental faculties. They stand a very good chance at living in three different centuries.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 05:36 - ID#255285)
awesome site....

(Sat Sep 27 1997 05:37 - ID#240190)

pssst, it's really me, Auric! Olaf is the name of yet ANOTHER tropical storm off the coast of Mexico. click on "Olaf" in the upper right hand corner.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 05:41 - ID#26793)
DAVID: Your post on CDE. I recall an analyst who said that company should be avoided because the top exec's lived high off the hog on the company expense account, unnecessary travel on a corporate jet, paid themselves too much money etc. Has the management changed or was that an unfair story?

(Sat Sep 27 1997 05:41 - ID#255151)

Good night all, most enjoyable chat!

(Sat Sep 27 1997 06:01 - ID#26793)
The Fed is probing the economy's noninflationary limits...U.S. long bond will approach 7% by year end.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 06:08 - ID#26793)
Bond yields will fall, dollar will rise, Fed policy will not change.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 06:12 - ID#257148)
pass me that soap-box a second please...
Donald continuum.. if you want to understand the past, look in the present, if you want to know the future, look to the present..
said by Nichiren Daishonin . if my memory serves..

(Sat Sep 27 1997 06:16 - ID#194225)
Good colleges are not necessarily liberal. Certainly these terms have unclear meanings and even less clear connotations. Is "conservative" rigid, intolerant? Is "liberal" impractical, and overly sentimental? Hopefully not. Curiously, I recently read a PR piece by the head of the National Education Assocation in which he called the NEA's positions on certain issues truly "conservative." Similarly, conservatives are stealing the term "liberal," because noone wants to be pigeonholed.

When I went to Wesleyan it was ranked 5th in the US News rating, and now it is 14th or 15th, not that this is a precise measure.

We can grow old without growing rigid - this, perhaps, yields a genuinely effective conservatism.

We can be young yet deeply respectful of what has preceded us - this, perhaps, is a reasonable liberalism.

My daughter is 17, very aware and informed politically, has traveled to Africa and Central America, and considers me a suspect liberal. She likes Alan Keyes ( so do I, although I went with Howard Philips in the general election ) .

Wesleyan has lost its soul, but it may be on the way back. I still have family high-up in the administration, and I am certainly rooting hard for the place. Thanks, Donald, for your affirming comments toward the old gal.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 06:49 - ID#26793)
2: Over the past many years I have dealt with a lot of Wesleyan students who were doing a 3 month internship associated with my job. All of them were very bright, hard working and all were political liberals. I don't recall one who was not. During a 12 year period I recall only one who called it quits before the time was up. Great kids all.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 06:51 - ID#257148)
@...wheww... he's going to bed...look after my precious ;-))
Auric I wish your grandfather and grandmother continuing good health..goodnight also.
The other day I posted about Kondratieff cycles being only useful for inter-generational asset planning, by which i mean trusts, estates, Mort de Main, and so forth. Also i speached ( *1 ) that past present and future were coming together at kitco.
Some months ago i met a nonogenerian retired London Jeweller, as alert as Auric's grand-parents. We started speaking of gold and silver, of the Bank of England and Hallmarks. The reason I post this, is in all seriousness. The mind-pool-team-kitco that would never join a team is incrementally learning stuff about the PM's. Memories, stories, poems and anecdotes are as important, imho, as the latest news.. well ,,, maybe.;- )
night-night --- off to count sheep.
How can I really offend anyone when i think that this life is so , well, ironic that i find it impossible to treat self or anything seriously...i mean, we can construct self-important whatevers and then fight over them... bed time
.;- )
Tort perhaps you could do Mort de Maine? ( this is probably spult rung )

( *1 ) Mike Sheller.. speached is now a verb, ;-}

Buckminster Fuller anyone.....

(Sat Sep 27 1997 07:12 - ID#386276)
Nick@C Up the Crows!
WMC call options look hot. Picked up 3 contracts Dec650 @ 33c. Were 19c two days earlier. BHP looks as if its going to break upwards but they have bad problems. Lots of way out of the money puts being traded on our banks. Is this the top.
Action in US on friday night looked very false. Dow up 70 in first ten minutes on futures. But no further momentum visible. Tick was up 400 then gave it away. NDX divergence.
FTSE going parabolic.
I think a direction must be ascertained very soon or failure and down.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 07:23 - ID#390214)
NEW YORK, Sept 24 ( Reuter ) - U.S. equity funds took in an estimated $2.32 billion in the two days ended Monday,
September 22, for a monthly rate of $24.4 billion, according to fund tracking service Mutual Fund Trim Tabs.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 27 1997 07:24 - ID#347447)
on aurations
AURATOR: You are providing a subtle and remarkably poetic balance of philosophy, wonder, critique, and crabbiness lately. Like a fine wine. I think you are nearing your peak ( one that you should maintain for many joyous decades to come! My speach is ended.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 07:25 - ID#390214)
...the devaluation is accelarating...
SAO PAULO, Sept 26 ( Reuter ) - Brazil's Central Bank lowered its mini-band on the real currency by buying dollars at 1.0955
and selling at 1.1005 reais per dollar in the commercial foreign exchange market, dealers said.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 07:27 - ID#390214)
...a lot of 'ifs'...
``It is very hard to imagine that if Mexican banks don't abuse their credit, and I don't see any risk of this happening, and if the
government doesn't run a large deficit, that the current account could present a problem,'' Gil said, speaking at a conference in
the beach resort.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 07:31 - ID#390214)
Mexico (delaying trade figures)
....if the trade deficit is larger than expected...peso's devaluation is to be expected......
The Finance Ministry has no fixed timetable for publishing trade data. Nonetheless, dealers said they had been expecting the
preliminary trade balance for August since Thursday, and they suspected the delay augured a disappointing figure.

``I think the balance will be a little in the red, which is why they didn't release it yesterday,'' the trader added. ``They'll probably
release it later today, but evey one has already squared their books.''

(Sat Sep 27 1997 07:36 - ID#390214)
Gold (physical demand increasing)
...'further price increases expected'.....
ISTANBUL, Sept 25 ( Reuter ) - Traded volume on the Istanbul gold exchange more than tripled to 1,471 kg on Friday from
Thursday's 454 kg as the prospect of further price increases boosted demand, dealers said.

Spot gold closed higher in line with European trends at $327.00 an ounce and 1,824,700 lira per gram, up from $324.60 and
1,807,800 previously.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 07:37 - ID#255284)
@ almost completely pickled//
Mike Sheller; so I sound like a marinade to you?

(Sat Sep 27 1997 07:45 - ID#57232)
@Aurator, Donald, Mike Sheller
Aurator: I enjoyed your comments linking past present and future. Seeing the present is easy because we are in it. The past depends on our memories, and how well we listen to others have experienced it. The future is much harder for us, but the patterns in the present and past are there if only we could see. The only time I regularly see the future ( a few seconds of it only ) is when I am listening to a great piece of music, such as Beethoven's Moonlight sonata. It is uncanny that one can sense what notes must follow from the ones just heard. If only we could learn better how to do this on a regular basis, and for more than a few seconds.
Of course if we could see the future, our lives would be dramatically altered. Berhaps Nostradamus wrote in riddles for a reason.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 07:46 - ID#390214)
El Nino update
Still growing. Already, this year's El Nino is shaping up to be the biggest in
history. The zone of warm water that now sits off Peru is already bigger than the
entire continental United States. It stretches more than 6,000 miles, a quarter of
the Earth's circumference, and is still growing. Sea-surface temperatures, which
are now nearly 9 degrees Fahrenheit above average in parts of the eastern
Pacific, have already equaled those measured during the powerful El Nino of
1982-83, which a U.S. government study blamed for 2,000 deaths and $13
billion worth of damage worldwide.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 07:46 - ID#364147)
Good mornin all!!

(Sat Sep 27 1997 07:47 - ID#26793)
AURATOR: Marinade? Isn't that a "lady" that "helps" sailors? If you are still up stand by for a blip from Barron's in about 10 minutes.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 07:54 - ID#255284)
% now... if there's a strawberry, just out of my grasp, ** why ** , I'll Look at the clouds and see visions of battles, of kindnesss and cruelty.......
Donald.... Yup. by the hairs on my chinny-chin-chin
BTW Whence cometh China etymologists?

(Sat Sep 27 1997 08:01 - ID#26793)
From Barron's, Kathryn Welling. A story about Albert Edwards of Kleinwort Benson who called the Malaysian debacle a year ago and is now calling for the same in Hong Kong. It will be a "real disaster about to occur in the region, which will make Malaysia and Thailand look like a kiddie party" He provides a lot of detailed analysis about capital flows and trade balances vs the currency. When his paper was printed a year ago Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad somehow heard ahead of time and protested. Kleinwort Benson pulled the report at the printers and trashed it, according to Barron's to "protect its lucrative trading license in Malaysia." They also issued an "abject apology for offending Malaysian sensitivities." Albert Edwards sees the New York market heading in the same direction, dropping to 6000, and has reduced US stock exposure to 12% of portfolio.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 08:13 - ID#57232)
Donald: I assume Albert Edwards was talking about the Hong Kong dollar, supposedly backed by ( as I recall ) well over 100billion. That would be a debacle indeed if the HK dollar fell! Did Albert Edwards say what he preferred to invest in?

(Sat Sep 27 1997 08:20 - ID#390214)
Health insurance premiums for federal employees and retirees
will increase an average of 8.5 percent next year, the Office of
Personnel Management ( OPM ) said yesterday.

The 1998 premium increase will reverse four years of stable or
declining rates for the more than 9 million workers covered by
the government program, the nation's largest
employer-sponsored health plan.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 08:21 - ID#364147)
@ Barrons
Hang Seng hit its all time high on August 7th ( hmmmmmmm ) and is off 13 % since then....In U.S.of A: "Domestic debt and equity issuance hit record levels before the quater ended"...hmmmmmmm....Am off ta Sydney ta get me weekly fix of the Globe+Mail....BBL dudes...

(Sat Sep 27 1997 08:22 - ID#57232)
Donald: If Albert Edwards is right, the fall of the Hong Kong dollar might be the trigger. The only other trigger I have been able spot is yesterday's news from the Middle East: Netyanahu' moving forward with the 300 settlements, and the Israeli talk about preparing for war. I don't like always looking for bad news -- but wipeout is worse!
Was it RJ who liked to watch the surfers when that big storm hit Calif?

(Sat Sep 27 1997 08:27 - ID#26793)
Barron's has Rydex Precious Metals as the leading fund last week. They have only $30 million under management. Gold funds are up 3.76% on the week on average. Rydex was up 7.7%

(Sat Sep 27 1997 08:32 - ID#26793)
JTFLICK: No specific issues but the story does say Mr. Edwards "is no permabear" and is "pounding the table for Spain, Italy and Holland"

(Sat Sep 27 1997 08:33 - ID#57232)
Mike Sheller: Ted's comment about the peak in the Hang Seng is intriguing. Perhaps more than the HK dollar is tied to the US. Are there any Astological clues?
I do know one practical point. A sudden collapse in US-China trade would be very bad -- and worse for China/SE Asia in the short term term than for us. The effect on the US would be delayed a bit. I sense in the longer term that continued China/US trade at the current levels is essential for the health of the world economy.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 08:41 - ID#255284)
@ bluck..
All === into your hands i commend thee === my precious, you'll see 280 b4 5000===
but you;ll see 5,000 before 10,000
my precious

(Sat Sep 27 1997 08:44 - ID#57232)
Aurator: Perhaps it is you who sees the future! We all should take what comes with open eyes and a steady heart.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 08:46 - ID#26793)
TED: Mr. Edwards says, about the U.S. market, "The key weakness in the U.S. market is that the long-term earnings expectations on which it's based are just rubbish. I mean, long-term earnings expectations have rocketed upward in the last year in the U.S. to 15% per annum for the next five years, each and every year. Now, near-term expectations are quite moderate, at 10% or so, permitting the market to negotiatite each reporting round. But there ain't no way in hell you are going to get anywhere near that long-term growth. The market expansion has stalled. We are just waiting for the market to hit this brick wall of realization."

(Sat Sep 27 1997 08:47 - ID#427357)
En todo caso habr devaluacin...
nomercy: Ref Your Mexico delaying trade figures - Pase lo que que pase, habr una devaluacin... Whatever happens, they will devalue... its a way of life South of the Border!

Neil Collett
(Sat Sep 27 1997 08:47 - ID#38970)
Oil prices breaking upwards perhaps = inflationary pressure?.

Friday September 26 3:16 PM EDT

Oil prices surge on technicals, Iraq concern

LONDON, Sept 26 ( Reuter ) - Oil prices surged to their highest in seven weeks on Friday on technical support in the futures markets, fresh concerns over Iraqi exports and solid demand for winter heating oil.

Benchmark Brent blend crude on London's International Petroleum Exchange was trading 31 cents firmer at $19.45 a barrel at 1800 GMT, its highest since August 6.

Dealers in London and New York stoked up the market with fresh buying across a range of crudes and products.

Some were responding to ``buy'' signals derived from chart analysis of price movements or were simply adverse to selling futures positions ahead of the weekend when technical pointers are bullish.

But bullish sentiment also grew on concerns about possible disruptions of Iraqi oil output amid a dispute over an Iraqi oil export pipeline to Turkey's Mediterranean coast.

Iraq sent crude prices surging on Thursday as Baghdad said it might be forced to cut supplies via Turkey's Ceyhan port under its humanitarian oil exchange with the United Nations.

On Friday, a U.S. State Department official said Iraq's request for spare parts to maintain pipeline operations and oil exports under a U.N. ``oil-for-food'' accord was ``unnecessary.''

Dealers also cited a continuing Turkish military move into northern Iraq to pursue Kurdish guerrillas in defiance of Baghdad's warnings of possible retaliation.

The offensive, Turkey's second major cross-border raid since May, has angered Baghdad, which lost control of northern Iraq to Iraqi Kurd groups after the 1991 Gulf War.

Iraq's oil exports and imports of humanitarian goods must be approved by a U.N. sanctions committee as part of the exchange started last December designed to alleviate the impact on civilians of sanctions imposed on Iraq in 1990.

The Iraqi-Turkish pipeline has been carrying about 600,000 barrels a day ( bpd ) , some two-thirds of Iraqi exports permitted under the pact.

The remainder is exported via Iraqi terminal Mina al-Bakr in the Gulf.

Good buying of heating oil in the northeast United States ahead of winter has been supported by seasonally low temperatures. Worries over a Norwegian oil industry strike also continue to lend help to crude values.

Crude oil prices in dollars per barrel:

Sept 26 Sept 25
IPE November Brent $19.45 $19.13
NYMEX November light crude $20.74 $20.34

(Sat Sep 27 1997 08:50 - ID#255284)
@ now, where did i put my sextant..
JT van der Flick.. aye aye captain;;- )

(Sat Sep 27 1997 08:52 - ID#386245)
Nick@Aussie. Just got back from the basketball. Canberra beat Sydney by 3 points--sooo we're into the finals. I think those WMC Dec. calls are a good wager, mate, especially with a strike of 6.50--they could easily go to 8.50 or 9.00 by Dec. if gold and/or nickel will kindly rise from the tomb!! I have got an even better one for ya mate. Bought 10k worth of NAB 19.00 put warrants--don't expire 'till April '99. That gives me a year and 1/2 for either a crash or a slow grinding "correction"!! If NAB ain't below 19 bucks by 1999--I'll put tabasco sauce on my shorts and eat them--in public!! Am gonna buy some more long term put warrants ( especially on the banks ) as I can't believe how cheap they are!! Everyone must think this market is gonna go UP forever. Don't you Yanks even THINK about cornering the tabasco sauce market neither--as I can't live without it.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 09:08 - ID#390214)
SE Asia currency bloodbath continues
The rupiah fell more than 3 per cent to a record low
yesterday, on concern Standard & Poor's might cut
its ratings outlook on Indonesia, following similar
downgrades for Malaysia and the Philippines.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 09:11 - ID#26793)
Some say "the bulls are still running Hong Kong" while others say "the Hong Kong dollar is extremely overvalued."

(Sat Sep 27 1997 09:31 - ID#386245)
Donald--I was in Indonesia in July. Every hotel I stayed at had it's price fixed in U.S.$ !! The exchange rate on the streets was 2400 rupiah to the US$ ( now 3125 ) . The poverty I witnessed was incredible. People were putting in 14 hour days/ 7 days a week for $4 or $5/day ( and many earn a lot less than that ) . We in Western Democracies are spoiled rotten!! Most have no idea just how well off they are!! PS-it's nice to talk to someone who talked to someone who talked to someone who was on Napoleons 1812 march to Moscow. His chances of coming back alive were probably in the order of less than 1 in 100.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 09:33 - ID#390214)
-------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
4,678 67,575 11,728 146,080 83,998 162,486 163,301 38,953 38,138

321 788 -168 -1,957 -681 -1,804 -61 -2,277 -4,020

2.3 33.5 5.8 72.5 41.7 80.7 81.1 19.3 18.9

17 44 5 34 44 53 92

(Sat Sep 27 1997 09:36 - ID#427357)
Merrill Lynch was bearish on gold from $35 to $850 - turned bullish at all-time high of $850 in 1980! As usual Dines provides well-written insights on Gold & Silver:

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 27 1997 09:45 - ID#347447)
You too Aurator & Donald
JTFLICK: This whole thing about time, the future, and prediction is endlessly fascinating to man. And rightly so. For instance, Aurator getting pickled on the other side of the planet from me ( I'm in NY ) : Is he ahead of me, or behind me? As to your question about what is coming, on Hong Kong I confess I am remiss, but as for Israel, I fished this out of my May 5 Astrological Investor feature at Gold-Eagle:


Jupiter opposing Israel's Pluto/Saturn conjunction in the 10th house during
March and April has been a classic significator of trouble for the "Leader"
( 10th house characteristic ) . Benjamin Netanyahu's personal political, and
settlement-building troubles seem to have eased somewhat as Jupiter
passes, but the expansive planet will retrograde ( apparent backward
motion ) and return to hang there resolutely in opposition once more
during the second half of September, and ALL of October. Sorry Bibi. Mars
then comes by to align with Israel's natal Jupiter on the 5th and 6th of
November, while opposing Israel's 9th house Uranus. Possible
interpretations: Major problems for the PM, or Israeli domestic
aggressiveness, while telling foreigners to "butt out!"

While some of the predictions in that month's feature were bombs, or too early, this one is interestingly alive and well. The Middle East has been, and doubtless will continue to be a major potential; for disruption of Western Civilization. And seeing as there are already MacDonald's and KFC's in Beijing, and shopping malls everywhere, Western Civilization is now the whole world. Muslim Fundamentalism is the last holdout against a unified world culture. Perhaps a crisis will occur over these remnants of divided Biblicism. We are fast leaving the Piscean paradigm of preists and religious establishments ruling men's lives. But there will be resistance and bumps along the way. This process could last a century, but it is inexhorable. Sciene AND Religion will bow to a synthesis of metaphysics in the future that will see both these areas of human preoccupation changed dramatically. The revelations will be most exciting.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 09:59 - ID#390214)
"There is a serious credit crunch as companies have not been able to
get access to money," said Peregrine Securities' Nicholas Brooks.
"Moreover, the prospect of large forex losses from unhedged
offshore debt is still rippling through the corporate sector.".

Mr Brooks said Indonesian corporates faced an estimated
US$14-$15 billion ( S$21.3-$22.8 billion ) in forex losses, assuming
that many did not hedge their exposure at all.

"This figure is equivalent to 23-25 per cent of fixed investment," he
said. "So the real impact will be felt on the domestic investment side,
which had been expanding at a buoyant pace before the crisis."

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 27 1997 09:59 - ID#347447)
One other thing, beware a sudden, unexplained runup in crude oil. Such an action preceded the August 1990 invasion of Kuwait, and can often indicate pre-knowledge by Middle Eastern, and related players of significant events ready to unfold. I was looking for Crude to rise from 19.58 a few weeks ago, and posted to that effect. I was making a technical assessment, from the crude chart after a decent correction seemed over, speculating on a possible renewed advance to challenge previous top. Now I notice the news reports ascribing this recent activity to a mix of "technical factors" and "tensions." With interest rates supportive, and the Dow Utilities riding reasonably aloft, it would take an exogenous event of world crisis proportions to bring on a "crash" scenario in stocks. But that is NEVER out of the question in this world, is it? It may be time to take another look at Israel's horoscope. Who would be the antagonist ( s ) here? Syria? Iraq? Iran? Egypt? All of the above? Let's have some guesses from Kitcoites, and I'll look at the charts of the most likely suspects.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 10:12 - ID#251147)
Hong Kong's 100 billion & HK $ devaluation

I think one item that the gurus miss is what happens when one gets married.

After I got hitched, all my income and assets became "our" money and property. This ment that my previous anticipated uses for my cash changed in profound ways.

Hong Kong and China have just joined just; whose money is it now and are there other more important uses for it than the fixed HK $ rate?

(Sat Sep 27 1997 10:16 - ID#390214)
From Whitewater to the Whitehouse (will Starr get them?)
September 26, 1997 ( Time Daily )

From Whitewater to White
Starr turns to evidence of conspiracy
and cover-up

Updated: Sep 26 1997 2:25PM

far unable to sink the
Clintons in
independent counsel
Kenneth Starr now
appears to be
seeking evidence that
the first couple tried
to obstruct his
investigation  a
legal strategy that's more palatable than prosecuting
the President for a decade-old land deal, says Jef
McAllister, TIME's White House correspondent.
"Accusations of abuse of presidential power and
conspiracy bring the Whitewater investigation right
into the White House in a way the original allegations
never could," says McAllister.

Starr has subpoenaed records from President
Clinton, the first lady and nearly 50 top White House
aides and lawyers, to determine whether they had
contact with former Whitewater business partners
James and Susan McDougal, disgraced Justice
Department official Webster Hubbell or their
lawyers. Starr also just convened a new grand jury.

For the latest on Whitewater and all other
Washington news, go to TIME and CNN's

-- Jenifer Mattos

(Sat Sep 27 1997 10:29 - ID#227238)
jkflas ( fkl;ds[a ) ID#251147: Your marriage analogy, is an interesting one. It could prove to be an accurate insight into the continuing health of the HK$. After all, what would compel the Chinese to support the HK$ when they are really bent on a total reunification of all China under one flag? Ultimate acceptance of the Chinese currency as a hard currency would seem to be more important to them in the long run.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 10:55 - ID#427357)
There are bulls, there are bears. But what does the "RHINO" have to say about bonds and gold? Find out in TRADING THE RHINO, Mike
Sheller's trading strategy that even a kid can use:

(Sat Sep 27 1997 10:56 - ID#57232)
@also - Donald and Aurator
Mike Sheller: re- your response on your astologic predictions of Netanyahu.
I still don't know how to interpret all of what you said, but is is interesting to note that Jupiter goes direct on Oct 7, 1997. I rememer one message on the web that some ultra-orthodox Jewish group wants to Helicopter in the first stone for the rebuilding of the Jewish temple on the temple mount, on Oct 21. They already have the Red Heiffer, which I believe, if it is judged as perfect, must be sacrified within three years of it birth to consecrate the temple mount. Someone will be cloning it too. I have sadly come to realize that what is most dangerous about the millenium is not what might happen, but the perception of those who are convinced they must shape the events around their own particular beliefs. To a great extent we create our own destiny.
Also, after October 1997, the winter months set in in that part of the world, and troop movements are more difficult until the spring. Thus alot of information points to an October crisis in the middle east.

Your announcement that we should watch oil is well taken, even if only 25% of the world's oil now comes from this part of the world. The perception by the rest of the world is likely to be as if all the oil comes from here.
Here's to the eventual unity of the world, with world peace and without concentration of power in the hands of a few.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 11:05 - ID#390214)
EMU delay?
BRUSSELS, Sept 27 ( Reuter ) - Deutsche Bank AG ( DBKG.F ) chief economist Norbert Walter was quoted on Saturday as
saying it was not yet certain that Europe's planned economic and monetary union ( EMU ) would start on schedule on January 1,

Neil Collett
(Sat Sep 27 1997 11:09 - ID#38970)
For oil prices ( and charts ) check out

(Sat Sep 27 1997 11:10 - ID#26793)
MIKE SHELLER: Muslim fundamentalisim has been the dominant theme of the planet for these past 1000 years. The score is Western 400, Muslim 600 right about now. I would rather it were not a contest and we could just learn to get along without killing each other over it. Too often the crazies from both sides have been in charge.

Neil Collett
(Sat Sep 27 1997 11:11 - ID#38970)
Let's try that again -

(Sat Sep 27 1997 11:18 - ID#26793)
I found more in Barron's on Hong Kong, International Trader section. I can't post it now, will do it later unless someone else has it sooner. Pretty gloomy stuff.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 12:06 - ID#33180)
capital gains tax
TED: Try for the question you asked a few weeks ago about the new US tax law on capital gains.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 12:10 - ID#429121)
don't know - having net problems
Thanks all for a wide variety of topics ( especially the financial intel! )

Niner - Great Moogly Woogly ( Zappa ) !!! Son, but that 1600fps,9mil is a contender - What gun, powder, & load?

Sig - Is that a .357 Sig?

JTFlick - Good posts IMHO. BTW there was a reason Nostrodamus wrote in riddles - fear of execution! ( That'd be enough for me to learn poetry ) ..

I've been trying to get some insider-intel on the potential Mid East blow-up. Nil so far... THAT is a BAD sign in itself!

(Sat Sep 27 1997 12:13 - ID#35081)
@ oven
Any RYO fans out there? I was thinking of taking a taste or a bite
and was looking at a 5 year weekly chart I liked ( considerng I know
nothing about charting ) . I already have a bite of ALTA that I should have spit out in March but my eyes were bigger than my stomach.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 27 1997 12:34 - ID#347447)
Ruminations on Ruination
DONALD: Muslim fundamentalism dominant these past 1000 years? how? Population? I was speaking more about the western influence of business, culture, and social systems spreading throughout the world, especially in recent decades of enhanced communication. Til' now, the trends and dominance have been clearly "western." There have been magnificent historical acheivements in Muslim culture, doubtless. But the direction for the world in the last few hundred years has clearly sprung from European roots, and the American expiriment. For all its faults, America is still the vanguard and model for evolving human aspiration. I am not being exclusive, I am just looking at the on-balance effect democratic mass culture has had on social and financial institutions. It is beginning to have that effect, slowly, in Beijing and Shanghai, and everywhere else it is allowed to be communicated. As cultures can no longer shut themselves off so easily from each other, the mode of choice is definitely pro-western. This by itself may force holdout cultures to adopt a more steadfast, fundamental, and antagonistic approach to the preservationj and defense of their way of life. Unfortunately, fundamentalism of any kind is usually the literal interpretation of flawed documents, teachings, or pronouncements. They are invariably aberrated doctrines drawn by imperfect humanity from sublime revelations or wise understandings.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 12:45 - ID#263259)
I am not a number. I am a free man.
Neophyte is gone. Still no claim to expertise like a lot of the old posters but I realize I'm less of a Neo than some others who pop up and post here. Having reached my goal at averaging into gold related investments ( a six month project ) I am now entirely a prisoner of market forces, hence the number ( in emulation of the old british t.v. series ) . Now to figure out when to start averaging into platinum...probably starting when Pt/Au ratio hits 1.05 again...

(Sat Sep 27 1997 12:56 - ID#364147)
@ CherOkee
Hi dude....speeding bullit commin yer way.....Am in a rush as sun just popped-out and got "itchy feet" time ta even read comments @ this point in time--cyber-SPACE....first frost TONIGHT and the tomatoe ( sp.thankx dan q ) don't like that,now do they???...GO GOLD...BBL dudes.......

(Sat Sep 27 1997 12:58 - ID#427357)
While XAU slumped Friday, the BROADER-BASED GOLD FUNDS INDEX rose 0.46! The Index is composed of 10 global Gold & Silver Funds - portfolios containing SEVERAL 100 mining FIRMS:

(Sat Sep 27 1997 13:22 - ID#26793)
If you paid your credit card on time and in full for a year this company is going to cancel your credit.

Neil Collett
(Sat Sep 27 1997 13:30 - ID#38970)
El nino in perspective?

(Sat Sep 27 1997 13:50 - ID#26793)
MIKE SHELLER: The Muslims have been "agressively converting" since about 700 AD through 1700 AD. They imposed their religion and culture over the northern two thirds of Africa, Spain the Balkans and northward into southern Russia and eastward to India, the Straits and on to the southern Philippines during that period.

Western culture and religion was agressively imposed starting in 1500. My earlier date reference was a little casual but I think that it is safe to say that, starting in 700 till now it has been a predominantly Muslim period. Here is an example of agressive imposition: "Charlemagne was a just and enlightened ruler...for the times. His loyalty to the Church was absolute, though he sometimes chose peculiar ways to demonstrate it. Conquering Saxon rebels, he gave them a choice between baptism and immediate execution; when they demurred, he had forty-five hundred of them beheaded in one morning." from A World Lit Only by Fire, William Manchester.

George Cole
(Sat Sep 27 1997 13:55 - ID#430205)
Donald: Rydex PM mimics the XAU which was the strongest gold index last week. The smaller gold companies should soon start to outperform the XAU if this move continues.

Mike Sheller; Looks like you may be right about stocks, bonds, and gold moving together for awhile. But gold's newfound luster does not bode well for the longevity of the bull market in financial assets. Let me extend my congratulations again for your on the money bond market forecast.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 27 1997 14:10 - ID#347447)
Ahh History...
DONALD: Northern Africa,. India, the Balkans...I rest my case. I am not talking about religious conversions, I am talking about social and economic institutions. In this regard, the "converted" mentioned are lagging sorely behind the "west." Their "spirituality" leaves a lot to be desired as well.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 27 1997 14:16 - ID#347447)
All assets moving up?
GEORGE COLE: Thank you George. If history is any barometer, this stock bull may have a few months to a year left. More possibly 2 - 6 months. Much of that may be topping pattern. It all remains to be seen. The apex of the triangle going forward on the 30 year Bond Rhino points to some time in '98 for a possible top. UNLESS this breakout in bonds proves false, and bonds go below that downtrend line they've broken out of. Then the apex in '98 could be a Bottom! Ah, choices, choices.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 14:21 - ID#318208)
to Mike Sheller; your 12:34
Do you consider the Bible a "flawed document"?

(Sat Sep 27 1997 14:48 - ID#57232)
Donald, Mike Sheller: It seems to me that the world is already having the beginnings of a religious awakening, ie the beginning of that metaphysical process MS refers to. I'm hoping this time it will not supplant current government and societal customs, but complement them, so that our civilization can grow too. Ie, I hope we do not move back to the past. Mike Sheller -- could the reawakening of older religions be happening in parallel with this process? Are some groups somehow locked out of the current cultural cycle?
It worries me when we have such a strong rebirth of older fundamentalist religions such as the Taliban, etc., or the orthodox Jews who wish to use animal sacrifice on the Temple mount. Surely religion must evolve with us as we grow. I would guess to some extent this is due to the "New World Order" which seems to lack religion as an anchor to prevent events such as what happened in SE Asia. This problem I suspect is only with our self professed leaders, and not with the grass-roots public they claim they represent. This process is clearly happening in the US as socialism, and the idea that our leaders know what is good for us, and we don't takes hold. We are guilty of encouraging the deception.
Are we seeing the seeds of our own destruction in the fundamentalist religious rebirth if we do not achieve balance in our Western culture? Perhaps the message is that we must make our world so admirable that noone will feel the need to turn to fundamentalism. Unfortunately that is a tall order. Perhaps someone who knows more about this topic can shed some light on what is happening.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 14:53 - ID#26793)
GEORGE COLE, MIKE SHELLER: Stocks, bonds and gold moving together. It could happen. For those who are following the Dow/Gold Ratio it is important to remember that we could have a situation, just for the sake of argument, where the Dow reached 9000 and gold was $400. That would show a Dow/Gold Ratio of 22.5. I can't think of a clearer sign in favor of gold in the long run but you could still lose money in dollar terms buying gold at that point. You would not be losing money in terms of purchasing power relative to owning stocks. Changes in the ratio help you determine the direction of the trend.

Taking the example further, the Dow could drop to 4500, gold to $250, and the ratio is 18. In a deflationary environment that would not be outside the realm of possibility.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 15:12 - ID#57232)
Donald, Mike Sheller, George Cole:
In 1987, I believe, much of the crisis was triggered because of foreign selling of US investments ( by Japan? ) . The dollar had been dropping since 1984. This external inflationary process may have been what triggerd the doubling in gold stock prices, even though there was still life in the 87 bull stock market. Gold stocks continued to rally after the stock market peaked, and then several months later everything crashed, with gold stock prices returning practically to the point before the rally.
This appears very similar to the current situation, where the forces of inflation appear to be external in the form of foreign sales of investments flooding the US with dollars. In the 70's inflation was internally generated, stock prices tended to be more stagnant.
Comments? Please correct me if i'm wrong about some of the facts.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 15:14 - ID#26793)
JTFLICK: You are indeed an optomist. Regretfully, it is human nature is to blame anyone other than ourselves for our problems. History is full of examples of leaders who were masters at building power for themselves on this human failing.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 15:18 - ID#57232)
I should have added: Massive inflation of the US dollar by N Greenspan in 1997. My quess is that given the cleverness of our Fed Reserve chairman, this is more likely to look like externally generated inflation, rather than internaly.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 15:21 - ID#364147)
@ capebreton
Donald ( 8:46 ) I agree!!....Elf ( 12:06 ) Thankx for the tax site!!...must be nice riding on!....

(Sat Sep 27 1997 15:25 - ID#364147)
@ Barrons
Seems like a pretty slow day so no one FREAK out when I cut+paste the following crap about the Hang Seng ( not everyone subscribes to Barrons ya know ) :

Monday, September 29, 1997

More Trouble Could Be in the Cards For
Hong Kong's Jittery Stock Market

By Neil A. Martin

For much of the past two years -- especially before the spasms of wild
volatility that rocked its stock market recently -- Hong Kong, with its healthy
banking system, strong economy, massive capital inflows, rock -- solid
currency and booming property market, has been a safe haven for investors
fleeing the economic uncertainties of other countries in the region.

Dow Jones World Indexes | Global Stock Markets | Emerging Markets

Last year, triggered by a recovery in the property market, an avalanche of
U.S. money poured into Hong Kong stocks. U.S. investors purchased $2.6
billion worth during the first quarter of the year alone -- more than they
bought in all of 1995. By the end of 1996, net purchases totaled $4.6 billion.
The inflow of American cash helped push the market to a record high, with
the Hang Seng closing the year at 13,451.45, up a smart 33.5% from its final
1995 quote.

This year is shaping up differently.

True, the Hang Seng, now at 14,710.87, is up about 8% year-to-date, as a
result of general optimism surrounding the July 1 return of Hong Kong to
China, a shift of money into the former crown colony from other Asian trouble
spots and a property-buying spree by mainland Chinese investors. However,
in the wake of Asia's currency devaluations, the Hang Seng index of 625
listed companies has lost about 13% of its value since Aug. 7, when it hit a
yearly high of 16,673.27.

More significantly, U.S.-based investors have lost confidence in the Hong
Kong market.

According to just-released U.S. Treasury data, American residents turned
into net sellers of Hong Kong equities in the year's first half, unloading about
$1.3 billion more than they bought. And although there are no numbers
available yet for the current quarter, the selling trend probably continued.

"The Americans are beginning to understand that Hong Kong is an accident
waiting to happen," says Albert Edwards, a London-based global strategist
with Dresdner Kleinwort Benson, who sees the market dropping to around
12,000 by the end of the year.

"Hong Kong has three of Thailand's vices -- an asset bubble, a fixed
exchange rate and 47% of all loans out to property -- none of which inspire
confidence in the equities market," he adds, warning that "the position is
deteriorating at an accelerating pace."

James Montier, a global strategist with NatWest Securities in London,
concurs. "There has been much too much euphoria about Hong Kong in the
wake of the handover," he says. "Massive earnings expectations built into the
market this year aren't going to pan out, and that could send the market
reeling. Hong Kong is no longer the safe haven it was," he maintains, noting
that NatWest is advising clients to reduce their positions there from
"overweight" to "neutral."

One sign that trouble might be brewing, both analysts say, was an increase
just before handover in the "risk premium," the difference between the yield
on three-month paper denominated in Hong Kong dollars and in U.S. dollars.
The gap widened sharply in July, during the Asian currency devaluations,
rising to as much as 475 basis points before settling back to the current level
of 200. ( Each basis point equals 1/100 of a percentage point. )

Right now, Montier believes there could be enough pressure on Hong Kong
rates to force them -- in real, inflation-adjusted terms -- into positive territory.
That would draw money into fixed-income investments and would naturally
be bad news for stocks. "In large part, the massive returns in Hong Kong
equities since 1990 have been driven by the existence of negative real rates of
interest," Montier contends.

Pressure on interest rates is coming from the unbridled credit expansion in
Hong Kong-currently leaping ahead at an annual pace of 32%. This flood of
money has fueled stock and land price "bubbles," similar to those experienced
most recently by Thailand and other nations in the region. Land prices, which
shot up 26% last year and are up another 30% or so this year, are expected
to drop next year by as much as 10%, according to some estimates. The
culprit: oversupply, namely a big increase in new units coming onto the market
through 1998.

"Hong Kong credit increases have fueled an asset bubble just as severe as
those in Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines or any of the other Southeast
Asian countries," says Edwards, noting that bank and property issues account
for about 72% of the Hang Seng index.

Indeed, worries about an overbuilt property sector have pushed the Hang
Seng properties index down by about 13.5% from its high for the year, while
the shares of individual developers have fallen more sharply. For example,
New Asia Realty is down 25% from its 12-month high, New World
Development is off 23.7%, SHK Properties is off 15.5%, Great Eagle has
fallen by 16% and Cheung Kong is down 14.2%.

More troubling for foreign investors, both Edwards and Montier assert, will
be the gradual downturn in consensus estimates for earnings growth for Hong
Kong companies this year and next.

Although consensus estimates suggest profit gains around 17%-18% this
year, Edwards and Montier believe these projections are too bullish and think
they are already being cut, to 13%-14%. "Markets are moved by surprises or
expectations that earnings growth will be higher than what's originally
estimated," says Montier. "Investors want to stay ahead of the fundamentals.
When they can't, the market starts to unravel, as it did in Malaysia earlier this
year when investors starting seeing downward earnings revisions," he

Even mainland Chinese appear to be having second thoughts about Hong
Kong. Indexes for both "red-chips" ( stocks of companies based in Hong
Kong but controlled by mainland enterprises ) and Class H shares of mainland
companies listed in Hong Kong have toppled about 10% and 12%,
respectively, from their highs.

If there's a gradual selloff in the market, it would raise immediate questions
about the fixed pegging of the Hong Kong dollar to the U.S. greenback. The
relationship, under which the Hong Kong currency rises or falls as the
currently strong U.S. dollar does, dates from 1983.

With reserves of around $80 billion, Hong Kong has enough money to defend
its currency from speculative attacks, but if overseas and mainland investors
turn bearish, and the incoming money flow is disrupted, interest rates would
climb, as they did recently when Hong Kong financial authorities spent $1
billion in one day to ward off a speculative attack.

"The real wild card is the Chinese currency, the yuan," Edwards warns.
"Domestic demand in China is dead, and exports are under competitive
attack by neighbors who have already devalued," he continues. "If economic
growth slips to bumpy levels, as it appears it will, China will face the same
dilemma that Thailand faced before it decided to float the baht."

He adds: "I doubt that China would do what Argentina did during the peso
crisis in 1995 and allow itself to slip into recession to hold the convertibility of
its currency." But if China were to devalue, investors would start worrying
about the Hong Kong dollar. "And do you think China would be willing, if
things really start to go wrong, to squander its reserves to defend the peg?" he

And he concludes: "An even more relevant question might be why would
China want two currencies anyway? Given the merging political and economic
factors of both Hong Kong and the mainland, wouldn't it make more sense to
have a peg for the Chinese yuan rather than the Hong Kong dollar?" Good

Return to top of page
Copyright  1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 15:31 - ID#57232)
Donald: I sure don't feel like an optimist - my better half of 27 years doesn't think so. However we must always believe that something good might happen, and try to make it happen. If we don't, in my opinion it will never happen. Of course, if we passively let others do what they think is "good" for us, we may regret it later ( ie the AntiChrist ) .
I think I know what you are getting at -- is the human population ready for what I'm hoping for? I hope so, but I am preparing myself for the alternative just in case, and so are you.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 15:32 - ID#280222)
D.A. et al : Our meteorologist announced last night that he was invited to the White House next week for a "Climate CHANGE Summit"! IMHO Look Out OJ and '98 Agriculturals!! ( Also, will there be an ANNOUNCEMENT from the White House??? )

(Sat Sep 27 1997 15:48 - ID#57232)
@Hong Kong
Ted: Appreciate your post about Hong Kong. I have been burned more than once in foreign funds, and find their behavior more unpredictable ( fickle ) than the US stock market. If you add the effect of that "sucking sound" ( sorry for the use of words ) on what may already be happening behind the scenes, this may be the trigger. If Donald is right then the Chinese economy will falter, possibly leading to a world-wide depression. I'm no expert in economics, but I think a healthy Chinese economy is now neccessary for the health of the world economy.
As I recall from Communist Chinese economic history, they tend to move cyclically from boom to bust. Perhaps someone will know where we are in the cycle.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 16:03 - ID#227238)
JTFlick ( @the_millenium ) : Wise counsel, well said. It's unfortunate that we, as a race, remain only a step and a half away from the cave entrance. Our technology always seems to advance more quickly than our ability to assimilate it's impact and cope with it.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 16:03 - ID#26793)
Can China control its interior provinces?

(Sat Sep 27 1997 16:08 - ID#228257)
climate change
Savage: Your comment sounds as though you think the attendees are intending to change the climate. No, not so. The term Climate Change simply refers to the study of the climate ( which is perpetually changing anyway ) , with special emphasis on examining the possibilities of eventual Global Warming caused by the greenhouse effect ( produced by centuries of man's industrial gaseous wastes blanketing the planet ) ; the very long term possible onset of another ice age ( concurrent theory offsetting global warming, but on a different overlapping timescale ) ; and El Nino, which may have always occurred on its own much shorter time cycles. There is no implied or intended indication that the change of climate is intended by man, although it is true that the attempt to clean up the pollution that produces greenhouse gasses is a kind of intentional attempt to stop adding to the problem.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 16:10 - ID#26793)
Chinese Checkers.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 16:16 - ID#26793)
EARL: Coping with technology? Piece of cake.

George Cole
(Sat Sep 27 1997 16:26 - ID#430205)
Fast Track Dead on Arrival?


Representative Maxine Waters ( D-Calif. ) was angry. As head of the Congressional
Black Caucus, she had invited White House representatives to a Sept. 4 meeting with
the 39-member group to talk about President Clinton's upcoming ''fast-track'' trade
bill. But Black Caucus members were incensed when U.S. Trade Representative
Charlene Barshefsky and Labor Secretary Alexis M. Herman stood them up. That
gave the floor to AFL-CIO President John J. Sweeney, who was supposed to debate
fast track with the Administration's contingent. Instead, he railed against the trade
initiative as ''a step backward'' for working Americans.

That faux pas was just one of the many tactical blunders that have all but sunk any
chance of getting a trade bill through Congress this year. And passing a bill to
authorize the President to negotiate new trade agreements won't get any easier next
year during the congressional elections.

LOCKSTEP. The fact is, the Administration grew complacent about winning
another big policy battle. It assumed that the GOP, prodded by business lobbyists,
would fall into ideological lockstep behind anything labeled ''free trade.'' That
misplaced confidence led the Clintonites to promise a bill last spring--then dither for
another six months before producing it. Meanwhile, CEOs and lobbyists at the
Business Roundtable and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce refused throughout the
summer to endorse a trade bill sight unseen. They feared it would call for new
environmental and labor regulations, as liberal Democrats proposed. Fast-track
opponents such as the AFL-CIO and Sierra Club used the time to equate trade
liberalization with stagnant wages, sweatshop labor abroad, and a rapidly growing
U.S. trade deficit.

At the same time, Clinton hasn't given Democrats sufficient reason to buck their
labor and environmental allies--and hasn't demonstrated to Republicans why they
should hand him another big legislative victory. To do a free-trade deal with Chile?
So that Nike Inc. and Boeing Co. can move more production abroad?

There's a bigger point. Without fast track, U.S. trade negotiators could be sidelined
during scheduled negotiations in Geneva on world agriculture, telecommunications,
and software, three areas where U.S. exporters rule.

With Clinton largely absent from the debate, partisan bickering has flourished. GOP
leaders boycotted Clinton's Sept. 10 fast-track kickoff ceremony at the White House
after learning that the administration's proposal was still being rewritten to satisfy
last-minute demands from Senate Minority Leader Thomas A. Daschle ( D-S.D. ) for
provisions on labor rights, environmental protection, and agriculture. When
President Clinton strode into the East Room--35 minutes late--a row of chairs
reserved for congressional Republicans stood empty. Now, even normally free-trade
Republicans such as Senator Phil Gramm of Texas are attacking the White House
plan--finally outlined on Sept. 16--as a sellout to labor that might require states to
drop right-to-work laws.

By the time Clinton introduced his proposal, say congressional staffers of both
parties, the draft was already on a resuscitator. Now, rather than starting with the
Clinton plan, Senate Finance Chairman William V. Roth Jr. ( R-Del. ) and House Ways
& Means Chairman Bill Archer ( R-Tex. ) are drawing up their own bills.
Subcommittee and other hearings on those bills likely will take up most of the seven
weeks remaining before Congress recesses.

The Clinton Administration isn't conceding defeat. ''We're about where we thought
we'd be, and things are moving forward,'' insists Barshefsky. America Leads on
Trade, a 500-member business coalition backing fast track, will soon begin airing
free-trade television ads in 103 congressional districts. ''We have suffered greatly
from the delay, but we still hold out the hope of congressional action this year,'' says
the group's chairman, James T. Christy, a vice-president of TRW Inc. But unless the
Administration can provide some reasons for members of both parties to stick their
necks out, further trade deals may be years away.

By Paul Magnusson

(Sat Sep 27 1997 16:27 - ID#26793)
"Tolerance, based on the notion that nothing much really matters."

(Sat Sep 27 1997 16:33 - ID#26793)
"In China, the banking structure is less than ideal."

(Sat Sep 27 1997 16:39 - ID#26793)
Stock markets that trade on Saturday.

South Korea -1.39%, Taiwan +1.27%

(Sat Sep 27 1997 16:42 - ID#57232)
To all: Here's a web page with articles by a terrorism expert who seems to know the Israeli situation. He contributes to Jane's, and has a lecturer position at John's Hopkins, I believe. What you will find is somewhat controversial and appears more knowledgable than the news in American media.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 16:48 - ID#269218)
When the "tent" collapses
it will not be the center-post
that goes first;
it will be the 'side-posts',
and even the 'stakes'.

For, as "Asian Tigers"
shake, shudder, & quake:
shedding their fur....
while they still feign to demure.

Just when a cold wind,
begins to blow in;
as 'indian-summer' - too long
holding on:
with wishful thinking, all a-long.

The markets can no longer avoid nor hide,
the Yuppie-Kingdom's crumbling, & cry;
as winter's clearing cold and rain,
Clean us all,
and clear-out, even
all of our grains!

And some day in the future,
all will be clear;
while now, every stock market around
will 'tear', and give ground.

And gold and silver too
will NOW move on,
and move up;
at least for a year.

Sincerely yours,
David Blair Macrory, C.T.A.
Tierra$anta Trading

(Sat Sep 27 1997 16:52 - ID#26793)
"We have freedom in Hong Kong, whereas you in the United States only have rights. Try starting a small business in the United States and tell me you have freedom" "In three years we in Hong Kong will have a greater per capita income than the United States"

(Sat Sep 27 1997 16:52 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

Rally in Progress!

(Sat Sep 27 1997 17:05 - ID#280222)
ELF: re your 16:08....I was referring to the commodities markets. They tend to take advantage of "announcements" to initiate large moves that they were fixing to do anyway; ( or use as a whiplash if they wish ) . ALSO, this "summit" gives the White House the appearance of being "on top of things", and therefore subject to further "announcements".

(Sat Sep 27 1997 17:07 - ID#57232)
Donald: I find your "Red Herring" post about Hong Kong amusing. It is true that free enterprise is freer in Hong Kong than it is in the US. One does not need to visit Hong Kong -- all you need to do is visit some of the Chinese in Toronto, where many of the wealthiest go when they retire. Canada greets them with open arms. Have you seen the huge malls in Toronto that are Chinese only? It is like visiting a foreign country. This may all end with the Communist takeover, so I don't think we need to worry about Hong Kong anymore. After this crisis is over, I'd be more worried about the mainland chinese.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 17:09 - ID#320102)
strange things on the net
Here is another view of future events by someone by the name of Maitreya. He says there is going to be a collapse of all stock exchanges, death of commercialization, and the beginning of a new era of co-operation and sharing of the world resources ( I guess this would include gold, huh? ) . Who is this guy? Some say he's the Christ, some say AntiChrist. He says he is a teacher. There sure are a lot of strange things to be found on the net!

(Sat Sep 27 1997 17:14 - ID#26793)
Long Wave Theory and the End of the World ( This story is 4 years old )

(Sat Sep 27 1997 17:31 - ID#18970)
Looks on the charts that PM will break down or up soon. Comments please on the drop in Silver WH stks. Ted Idont have your E mail address re NS Tourism.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 17:35 - ID#344211)
2 earthquakes in italy killed 11 people yesterday---
volcano eruption in ethiopia--1st time in recorded history
volcano eruption in mexico city--
volcano eruption in montserrat--
sub-sea volcano eruptions cause el nino ( supposed biggest ever ) ( fact )
farmers almanac predicting terrible drought for us in '98-- ( 80% accuracy )

is there a connection? can external stimuli en-hance or
even cause these events?

is "for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction"
an accurate statement?

if so, what "extra"-gravitational forces were applied ( pressure wave ) as
hale-bopp blew by? what "extra"-electro-magnetic-flux ( emf ) ( pressure wave )
forces were applied this last year during "extra"-SOLar activity? ( sun-spots )

consider the immediate observable effect the moon has upon the tides
of the earth. quite impressive and PREDICTABLE. consider the effects
of a smaller body ( 1/20th ) at 10X the distance. would there be immediate
observable effects? no. would there be effects? yes. what would they
be? would the safety valves of our planet begin to release "extra"-pressure in the form of volcanic and tectonic "flux"-uations?
what conceivable fashion exists for our planet to relieve pressure?
would it ever need to? why? where could "extra" pressure come from?
in what form?

electro-magnetic radiation from the sun.
gravitational forces from some rogue object in our SOLar system.

have we encountered these phenomenen of late?

physics and nature rule!

pm's will be the benefactors of these very same principals.
the cyclic nature of carbon-based-beings, and our universe,
revolve around expansion and contraction. the pm's have
contracted in protracted manner. an un-usually large expansion
is un-stoppable. physics AND nature prove this beyond a shadow
of a doubt!

cherokee!; ) peering-over-the-horizon-------------dotssmfatimm

(Sat Sep 27 1997 17:35 - ID#344211)
2 earthquakes in italy killed 11 people yesterday---
volcano eruption in ethiopia--1st time in recorded history
volcano eruption in mexico city--
volcano eruption in montserrat--
sub-sea volcano eruptions cause el nino ( supposed biggest ever ) ( fact )
farmers almanac predicting terrible drought for us in '98-- ( 80% accuracy )

is there a connection? can external stimuli en-hance or
even cause these events?

is "for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction"
an accurate statement?

if so, what "extra"-gravitational forces were applied ( pressure wave ) as
hale-bopp blew by? what "extra"-electro-magnetic-flux ( emf ) ( pressure wave )
forces were applied this last year during

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 27 1997 17:40 - ID#347447)
The Mysteries shouldn't be so mysterious
LURKER: re your 14:21 "Do you consider the bible a "flawed document"?'" In some ways it is, lurker, relative to the overall truths it was intended to preserve. Much of both testaments is veiled language and allegory symbolic of certain realities of human origin and potential destiny. The heart of these teachings were meant to be protected from the profane. Scripture is sublime in that it works on the level of each person who comes to it with an open heart and mind. But the mysteries veiled by stories such as the story of Adam and Eve, The crossing of the River Jordan by Joshua, Samson and Delilah, the Gospel of Jesus, and many many more, are based on teachings from Hebrew, Babylonian, Vedantic and Brahmin metaphysics that predate the scriptures themselves. Scriptures are carrying a message that is still imperfectly understood by most people who are even devoutly focussed on them. These documents are not so much flawed as they are heavily veiled, and, in many cases, tampered with by established religous "authorities" over the ages, much as real money has been tampered with by governments. As for the New Age voices that claim to be leading man into a new era, they all claim, and have done so for a long time now, that "commerce" will end, and the fruits of the earth will be shared by all. The people who mouthe such platitudes invariably think that the rest of us will see their great spiritual leadership, bow at their feet, and do all the mining, growing, manufacturing, that will keep them and their followers happy. Yeah, right. These people are deluded by sentiment, and do not understand how they got into the human condition through lack of self knowledge and self responsibility. Their "spirituality" is invariably based on some form of cosmically sanctimonious altruism. They will not survive the very conflagrations they often predict.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 17:46 - ID#335190)
Workaholic @ USofA Economy
A Workaholic Economy
by Paul Wallich

For the first century or so of the industrial revolution, increased productivity led to decreases in working hours. Employees who had been putting in 12-hour days, six days a week, found their time on the job shrinking to 10 hours daily, then finally, to eight hours five days a week. Only a generation ago social planners worried about what people would do with all this new-found free time. In the U.S., at least, it seems they need not have bothered.

Although the output per hour of work has more than doubled since 1945, leisure seems reserved largely for the unemployed and underemployed. Those who work full-time spend as much time on the job as they did at the end of World War II. In fact, working hours have increased noticeably since 1970 -- perhaps because real wages have stagnated since that year.
Bookstores now abound with manuals describing how to manage time and cope with stress.

It may take even more than changes in the financial and cultural structures of employment for workers successfully to trade increased productivity and money for leisure time, Schor contends. She says the U.S. market for goods has become skewed by the assumption of full-time, two-career households. Automobile makers no longer manufacture cheap models, and developers do not build the tiny bungalows that served the first postwar generation of home buyers. Not even the humblest
household object is made without a microprocessor. As Schor notes, the situation is a curious inversion of the "appropriate technology" vision that designers have had for developing countries: U.S. goods are appropriate only for high incomes and long hours.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 17:55 - ID#335190)
Workers in USofA @ Increasingly hostile = Vanishing Jobs
Vanishing Jobs

Some business leaders are concerned, but politicians seem strangely deaf to what is likely to be the most explosive issue of the decade. "Will there be a job for me in the new Information Age?"

This is the question that most worries American voters--and the question that American politicians seem most determined to sidestep. President Bill Clinton warns workers that they will have to be retrained six or seven times during their work lives to match the dizzying speed of technological change. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich talks about the "end of the traditional job" and advises every American worker to become
his or her own independent contractor.

But does the president really think 124 million Americans can reinvent themselves every five years to keep up with a high-tech marketplace? Does Gingrich honestly believe every American can become a freelance entrepreneur, continually hustling contracts for short-term work assignments?

The hard reality is that the global economy is in the midst of a transformation as significant as the Industrial Revolution. We are in the early stages of a shift from "mass labor" to highly skilled "elite labor," accompanied by increasing automation in the production of goods and the delivery of services. Sophisticated computers, robots, telecommunications, and other Information Age technologies are replacing human beings in nearly every sector. Factory workers, secretaries, receptionists, clerical workers, salesclerks, bank tellers, telephone operators, librarians, wholesalers, and middle managers are just a few of the many occupations destined for virtual extinction. In the United States alone, as many as 90 million jobs in a labor force of 124
million are potentially vulnerable to displacement by automation.

To be sure, I hear moans and groans from some corporate executives when I zero in on possible solutions--although there are also more than a few nods of agreement. But still, they are willing--even eager--to talk about these critical questions. They are hungry for engagement--the kind that has been absent in the public policy arena. Until now, politicians and economists have steadfastly refused to entertain a discussion of how we prepare for a new economic era characterized by the diminishing need
for mass human labor. Until we have that conversation, the fear, anger, and frustration of millions of Americans are going to grow in intensity and become manifest through increasingly hostile and extreme social and political venues.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 18:10 - ID#335190)
C.D. Howe Institute @ Corporate Canada Speaks = McMaster University Hamilton
Saturday, September 27, 1997

Taxpayers 'must lift burden of debt from future generations'
The Financial Post
Canada's debt burden should be cut drastically -- from its current level of 74% of gross domestic product to 15% -- to be fair to future generations, says a paper prepared for a Finance Department-sponsored assessment of policies for the post-deficit era. But, although the debt should be cut sharply, there is no great economic benefit from doing it quickly, say economists William Scarth and Harriet Jackson of McMaster University in Hamilton.

They used computer modelling and simulations to answer basic questions about the debt burden in order to help guide Ottawa in making policy choices. A controversial recommendation is that future tax cuts should focus almost wholly on reducing tax rates for wage earners rather than lowering taxes on capital or interest income.

"When we exited the Second World War, we had a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 110%," Scarth says. "We bequeathed both a debt and an asset -- freedom -- so it seemed sensible that future generations should bear some of that cost. "It's only in the last 20 years we've had this big buildup in debt and we've not purchased any obvious assets. Basically, we just went on a current consumption binge." Removing this burden of debt from future Canadians should be an expression of our values as a society.
"There is an implicit contract where current generations don't rip off future generations for the sheer purpose of consumption," he says.

"The idea is if we save a lot, much of that will go into new productive processes in the future, so labor will be more productive and incomes for everyone even higher," Scarth says. "Those on the right say a big hunk of this fiscal dividend better be spent in the form of tax reductions that are particularly conducive to growth, which means cuts on taxes on investment income." But, he says, if you want to treat wage earners fairly so they derive equal benefit from any tax cuts, virtually the whole tax cut has to be focused on cutting rates for wage-earning individuals.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 18:15 - ID#335190)
C.D.Howe Institute @ Canada Think Tank, Corporate & Central Bank, Canada
Current Press Releases

More Money Than Is Good for Us: Why the Bank of Canada Should Tighten Monetary Policy Commentary 95

Embargo: For release Thursday, July 31, 1997

Low inflation at risk from rapid money growth; Bank of Canada should raise rates, says C.D. Howe Institute study

Although recent strength in the Canadian economy is welcome, the Bank of Canada may be giving Canadians too much of a good thing, says a C.D. Howe Institute Commentary released today.

The Major
(Sat Sep 27 1997 18:41 - ID#372425)
@Interrupting Again?
I truly enjoy the broad and sometimes epochal nature of the discussion
on this forum.It must be considered though,that history was written by
those groups or individuals who's ideas and positions did not reflect the
scientific knowledge of today.Often the writings served to endorse a
popular or accepted belief of their own time,thus the re-writing of
history and science continues for those willing to adjust to scientific
explanations presented.The changes we see in the Earth have been ongoing
since it's time began,which contrary to popular belief,maybe next year
or the next,for all we humanoids know.An open mind is a wonderfull thing,
isn't it.Rule out nothing till it is known otherwise.

May I ask again this question of the group...............

With regard to the Central Bank Selling Theme hanging over our heads
still,when or what will put this to rest?I understand during the IMF
meetings,the Britts were suggesting disclosure on a regular basis from
members,but I'm in the dark as to what now encourages or necessitates
disclosure.Is it at the discretion of any one Central Bank etc?I would
really appreciate any input on this.Thanks for your time and thoughts.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 19:11 - ID#335190)
Britain @ Not! At start of Emu.
September 27, 1997
UK's Brown says no shift on EMU position

LONDON, Sept 27 ( Reuter ) - Finance Minister Gordon Brown said the British government's position on entering the European single currency has not changed despite news reports that it was warming to the prospect.
"The government's position on EMU is as it has always been," he told the Sunday Times in an interview.

The official position of the British Labour government is that it is highly unlikely that Britain will join EMU at the starting date in 1999.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 19:19 - ID#26793)
THE MAJOR: History is the lie that is agreed to. ( Castadena )

(Sat Sep 27 1997 19:20 - ID#227238)
elf ( climate change ) : A cynic, of course, would conclude that there is more "pork" potential in a potential climate change, than there is in a simple El Nino. The latter is known and immutable, with a high probability of severe effects...... Hardly a fit subject for immediate concern. ( cause, effect and political rhetoric being what they are: too closely linked in time and circumstance - not good! )

On the other hand, the latter is ethereal, cosmic ( as in spacey ) , clinically suitable for "new age" Gorephobia and readily malleable to whatever shape is politically expedient. ...... It continues to be so very difficult to maintain a healthy cynicism in today's world. ( grin thing ) ( THx Donald )

(Sat Sep 27 1997 19:20 - ID#227238)
elf ( climate change ) : A cynic, of course, would conclude that there is more "pork" potential in a potential climate change, than there is in a simple El Nino. The latter is known and immutable, with a high probability of severe effects...... Hardly a fit subject for immediate concern. ( cause, effect and political rhetoric being what they are: too closely linked in time and circumstance - not good! )

On the other hand, the latter is ethereal, cosmic ( as in spacey ) , clinically suitable for "new age" Gorephobia and readily malleable to whatever shape is politically expedient. ...... It continues to be so very difficult to maintain a healthy cynicism in today's world. ( grin thing ) ( THx Donald )

(Sat Sep 27 1997 19:27 - ID#26793)
Poll question. Who will be to blame if the stock market crashes in 1997?
Response: Greenspan ( 40% ) Clinton ( 16% ) Another you won't believe!

(Sat Sep 27 1997 19:30 - ID#227238)
There's that stutter again...... This evening's stutter is brought to the assembled, through the courtesy of a very fine Zinfandel. A birthday gift from a close friend who is, indeed, an eonophile. I can only admit to being a deeply committed eonophage.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 19:36 - ID#26793)
The question of China's status as a "great power" in the international system seems
elementary enough, yet the answer is far from obvious. Currently, China is the largest recipient of
World Bank multilateral aid ( about $3 billion per year ) , even though the World Bank ranks it as the
world's second-largest economy.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 19:38 - ID#33180)
an old Spanish toast
Earl: Happy Birthday. Salud, pesetas, y amor, en el orden que prefieres, y el tiempo para gastarlos. ( Health, money, and love, in the order you prefer, and the time to enjoy them. ) Clink of wineglass.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 27 1997 19:40 - ID#347447)
@ THE Donald
I would most definitely blame a crash in '97 on none other than Steve Puetz. As for the salivating host of investors today ready to buy the day after the "crash," I think they will be very disappointed. A good old fashioned bear market over 12 - 18 months will frazzle them real good. As Tony Caldero used to say ( A genuine predictor of the '87 crash, unlike many wanna be's after the fact ) "The real bad bear market is the one where prices decline just a bit EVERY day, and you come home and kick the dog after every close." I'll side with Tony.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 19:49 - ID#26793)
How the weak Japanese yen is hurting Hong Kong.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 19:58 - ID#26793)
MIKE SHELLER: I thought you would blame Demi Moore and give her a good spanking for causing that bad old crash.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 19:58 - ID#227238)
Donald ( @Home ) ID#26793:
"EARL: Coping with technology? Piece of cake." ..... Zooming up through the gossip........ Enjoyed that one. It is government's normal and legitimate function to protect us against every and all - EXCEPT - those who would predate against us. ..... Ya just have to luv, don't ya???? What a world we live in!

(Sat Sep 27 1997 20:04 - ID#227238)
David @pacbell or whatever: "while they still feign to demure." .... I think the word you wanted was "demur". "Demure" is, perhaps, one element of a coquette. ( in good humor, with a grin thingy )

(Sat Sep 27 1997 20:08 - ID#26793)
Help wanted advertising drops 3%.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 20:09 - ID#258224)
@Sig...its OK on the weekend, ask Bart
Q ) "sig ( @gobbledegook ) ID#287389: BoB: What does all that have to do with the price of precious metals and pm stocks on monday morning? .... Over analysis is no different than under analysis."

A ) Political issues impact economic trends that change gold prices.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 20:17 - ID#227238)
Donald ( @Home ) ID#26793:
"We have freedom in Hong Kong," ...... Cognitive dissonance??? .. Improper tense of the verb?

(Sat Sep 27 1997 20:22 - ID#26793)
Sign of a top? Fed watchdog committee to cancel meetings because the Fed is doing such a good job.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 20:23 - ID#227238)
lurker ( strange things on the net ) ID#320102:
"Here is another view of future events by someone by the name of Maitreya." .......... Please send me a coupla hundred and your email address, 'n I'll send you the full scoop. OK?? This is a limited time offer so don't delay. ..... A credit card number to the above email address will get you full details. ... ( in good humor, with the grin thingy )

(Sat Sep 27 1997 20:27 - ID#217338)
All: Would someone pls explain how ecologist and their political croneys can be so presumptious as to blame global warming on certain acts of mankind. There have been 20 or more documented ice ages in prehistory , in order to have separate ice ages there had to be periods of tremendous warming of the earth in the interim periods. Possibly the flatulance of dinosaurs caused some of these periods ( grin ) .

spanish prof
(Sat Sep 27 1997 20:27 - ID#28834)
elf: para GOZARLOS -- ( :- ) )

(Sat Sep 27 1997 20:27 - ID#26793)
EARL: Courtesy of Bob several posts down, saved me a lot of typing. Pass the Zin, Fidel.
What does all that have to do with the price
of precious metals and pm stocks on monday morning?

(Sat Sep 27 1997 20:40 - ID#227238)
Mike Sheller ( The Mysteries shouldn't be so mysterious ) : Here in wonderful wacky Oregon, in the '80s, we had the Rancho Shree Rahjneesh. They came to conquer. ..... Oregon has but 3 million +/- enlightened souls. Before they were finished they were heavily armed and poisoning the salad bars, in the county seat, on election day. ... A new definition of popular mandate, here in the west.

They did manage to overpower an entire ( sparsely populated ) county for a time by trucking bums from LA to load the voter registration polls. In short, it was a grand time. The "Master" had some 2 dozen Rolls Royces, all donated by the faithful. Among other accoutrements and symbols of divinity, of course..... Not the least of which was a steady stream of nubile lasses to attend to his more "personal needs". .... Damn! Human stupidity. Ya just gotta love it! ...... Funnier than an hour with Buddy Hackett. .... For those with a memory.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 20:41 - ID#26793)
Didn't Gozarlos play center field for the Giants?

(Sat Sep 27 1997 20:48 - ID#390275)
To Elf, In the past twenty years global temperatures have decreased by .23 degrees. Too many people are making money from global warming for this fact to be widely published.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 20:49 - ID#316193)
Now that we know that Kitco's data base can be clicked back to year 1996
and comments from posters of yore to be held up in ridicule in light of
today, my polite nature asks, "Did you say anything last year?" If not,
why should you play "poker" if you cannot be a "pokee"?

(Sat Sep 27 1997 20:50 - ID#427357)
Outfielder GOZARLOS vs "WHO" & "WHAT"
Donald: That sounds like a Bud Abbott & Lou Castello routine: "Who" is on second, and "What" is on third -- ( :- ) )

(Sat Sep 27 1997 20:51 - ID#227238)
6pak ( C.D. Howe Institute @ Corporate Canada Speaks = McMaster University Hamilton ) ............. They're kidding. Right??? Lotsa luck on that one. A sugared entreaty to pay higher taxes, in order that future generations might not be similarly encumbered??? Nonsense. .... We got ours.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 20:52 - ID#26793)
Asian fires having an impact on currency in the region. IMF concerned

(Sat Sep 27 1997 20:56 - ID#285247)
Question for Accountants?
Would anyone here happen to know whether the new tax laws, legalized the holding of Gold & other PM's in various forms, in IRA's and 401 K plans? My understanding is that you may now own Gold, Silver, and Platinum coins including Numismatic types. Does anyone know? Thanks.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 20:57 - ID#26793)
EARL: You mentioned poison?

(Sat Sep 27 1997 21:04 - ID#285247)
I noticed that many on this forum believe in market influences well beyond the ones normally considered. Do any other's here believe that the new Millenium may usher in an era of instability and crises leading to a sharp rise in PM prices? Biblical prophecies, Nostradomus, Edgar Cayce, and others have all predicted major events around the year 2000 and shortly after, which would lead to world crises. Any thoughts?

(Sat Sep 27 1997 21:10 - ID#195260)
Earl -

How is "Virtue of Selfishness" coming along? I just started it last night.
I don't think I have ever read an ethics book - it should be interesting.
Sofar, I think one of my favorite passages from Ayn was " show me who
he is sleeping with, and I'll tell you what kind of man he is" I've been
trying to apply this to Greenspan. Since he is newly married - I will
assume his bedroom habits have changed lately. Isn't his new wife have
something to do with the press?

I just learned today that Ayn Rand had an INTJ personnally - so do I.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 21:11 - ID#227238)
Donald ( @Home ) ID#26793:
EARL: You mentioned poison? : ...... Where the hell did I mention poison??? The Zinfandel is gone but the memory does not linger on. .... Actually in the middle of the salada w/brocley ( how the hell do you spell brokley? ) with no Zin left. ...... ( grin thingy )

(Sat Sep 27 1997 21:17 - ID#26793)
On stock tips from shoe-shine boys.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 21:23 - ID#227238)
kuston ( Aha! Amigo. I shall put the brockly spears aside for the moment and address a larger issue.

Any man who can bring himself to read "The Virtue of Selfishness", hates dogs and small children and is against the Holy and Sanctified Office of Matrimony, cannot be all bad. He must have some redeeming qualities and is, surely, worthy of full support in his darkest hour.

Begin your readings late at night with the house completely dark. Save for a AA powered headlamp - available from LL Bean. Do not disclose to close friends, associates, esposa, and especially the Rev. Clergy, the nature of you present inquiries. Enjoy. And ...... Short of that, if the sumbitch does not change your entire life.... I will be surprised. But as you will discover; it ain't all "tea and crumpets"..... Now, back to the brocclye.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 21:29 - ID#26793)
EARL: It had to do with Oregonian Salad Bars. Poison in the oregano I guess.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 21:32 - ID#344346)
I've heard different theories implied about the reason central banks are selling gold. Most often the implication is that central banks have banded together and are cooperating to drive down the price of gold for the purpose of discrediting it. I'm not really big on this kind of conspiracy theory; my feeling is that the sales are, in fact, intended to help prop up paper for a little longer ( in particular, to ease govts' ability to sell their debt ) but not necessarily with any hard feelings toward gold. Has anyone noticed that 1997 seems to be a year of balanced budgets? The US is promising a balanced budget, Australia ran a surplus, and the EU seems to be inspiring heavy interest in low deficits. So very simply the gold sales could be a desparate, non-conspiratorial attempt on the part of CBs to raise revenue, and direct this revenue ( perhaps illegaly in some cases ) toward achieving a temporarily lower deficit. So the question is asked, why do CBs sell at such low points? Answer: pure desparation. They expect the debt of many countries to soon become worthless, and they want to milk investors for all they can before the realization sets in. Someone earlier I think compared all the CBs to an oligopoly -- maybe to imply they've reached a cooperative solution wrt their attitude toward gold. This requires a conspiracy which puts together strange bedfellows. I prefer a theory in which a competitive solution has led CBs to drive down the price of gold. Each country wants its debt to sell at a higher price than the debt of its neighbor. So the first countries to sell gold might perhaps intentionally overdo it a bit, to make sure the next country will be less able to benefit from their own gold sales. Maybe this could explain CB leasing of gold, also: these CBs want to extract revenue from gold in ways that hamper other CBs trying to sell gold.

I could allow for a little cooperation occurring in this scenario, as well. Notice that CBs most notably sell *gold* rather than each others' currencies. They're all wanting to increase their ability to sell their government's debt, but without pissing each other off too much.


(Sat Sep 27 1997 21:34 - ID#227238)
Silnum ( Apocolypse ) : Yer bein' silly. ( grin thingy )

(Sat Sep 27 1997 21:36 - ID#18970)
@Steve Peutz
Interested in Steve's comments/ he has an excellent well written newsletter.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 21:39 - ID#26793)
EARL: Even Prez Bush wouldn't eat this stuff.
Main Entry: broccoli
Pronunciation: 'br-k&-lE, 'br-klE
Function: noun
Etymology: Italian, plural of broccolo flowering top of a cabbage, diminutive of brocco small nail,
Date: 1699
1 chiefly British : a large hardy cauliflower
2 a : either of two garden vegetable plants closely related to the cabbage: ( 1 ) : one with a thick
central stem and a compact head of dense usually green florets that is classified with the cauliflower
( 2 ) : one ( Brassica oleracea italica ) with slender stems and usually green or purple florets not
arranged in a central head b : the stems and immature florets of broccoli used as food

(Sat Sep 27 1997 21:41 - ID#227238)
Donald: The Dalles, Oregon. You were there! Amazing. don't remember the exact year. .... What a group. What a time. Just loved every minute of it. .... What right thinking individual, does not get an absolute kick out of daily displays of human stupidity??? ..... Comments of the "Faithful" should have been recorded for posterity. .... "Film clips at 11".

(Sat Sep 27 1997 21:45 - ID#30116)
Earl -- Nubile, young females, attending to 'more' personal needs... ???

Where do I sign up?

(Sat Sep 27 1997 21:47 - ID#18970)
Am A liberal who is part of the anti-potatoe movement.

George Cole
(Sat Sep 27 1997 21:49 - ID#430205)
Has gold dropped too far? Bullion now below purchasing power parity. According to supply side economists, this means the Fed should cut rates. Might Alan ease up on the yellow to head off rate cut pressures at the pass?

Gold Below its PPP Level

Gold Monitor - September 5, 1997

A recent Polyconomics report notes that gold has finally sunk below its PPP level, using
the U.S. CPI and 1913 as the starting date. Our replication of their analysis has golds PPP
value for 1997 at $335. We, in turn, have tended to use 1934 or 1935 as the base year for
this sort of calculation on the argument that the Fed revalued gold to $35 in 1934 in order
to stop a run on the official gold stock. Starting with 1935 our PPP gold price is $398 and
$408 for 1996 and 1997 respectively.

Either way, gold is now clearly below its PPP value. In economic terms this means that the
supply of gold is rising relative to the supply of goods making up the Consumer Price
basket. More evidence, if needed, of "excess" supply.

To the degree, however, that the foregoing may also mean that U.S. inflation is grossly
overstated, or that the U.S. CPI will soon begin to fall, the depressed gold price is also a
signal of a too tight U.S. monetary policy. Note how relatively stable gold has been in
terms of the DM. It may not be gold that is out of whack, but U.S. monetary policy and the
U.S. dollar!

(Sat Sep 27 1997 21:51 - ID#227238)
Donald: "Main Entry: broccoli Pronunciation: 'br-k&-lE, 'br-klE Function: noun". ......... Had to do it. Dincha? Bush dint like brockly and look where it got 'im. I like it a lot ( ain't helping me much either ) ... but not as much as Ted. Ted likes rough grass and dandelions ... with bulgar whatever on the side. .... Surprised he ain't pickin' the oats out of horse apples. ( Ted: grin thingy ) ....... Nonetheless, George Herbert ( Walker or Marshall - which is it? ) Bush is notable as a philistine and his disregard for a noble veggie like brokkly is totally unwarranted.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 21:56 - ID#227238)
Panda: Sorry Amigo. As all good things must inevitably come to an end, it is too late. The Baghwan, done gone on to his reward. ... In "Poona" ( no kidding ) India of all places. ... What a remarkable individual he was. ... Lasses ( for WW: broads ) weren't bad either.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 21:57 - ID#18970)
The "virtuousness of selfishness" is just a way for greedy people who consider themselves moral and religious to feel better about their greed.
Simple nuf said /truth id Obvious!!Me included.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 22:00 - ID#26793)
INTP: All the news has centered on the CB's who are selling gold and the CB's that are buying gold are not being reported. For example, in 1996 the net sales were 239 tons, 1995 232 tons, 1992 and 1993 averaged 536 tons per year. I do not have 1994 handy ( or there may have been none ) My own feeling is that gold moves from weak hands to strong hands, as it has for centuries.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 22:02 - ID#18970)
How did Stalin/ Lenin or somebody miss ole Ayn Rand? Just a thought.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 22:07 - ID#26793)
WW: I am anti-potatoe also. I do enjoy a potato from time to time. ( This from a guy that can't spell optimist )

(Sat Sep 27 1997 22:09 - ID#227238)
Donald: It is extremely irresponsible and inconsiderate to scatter your central theme across a whole post. Far better that you should encapsulate the kernel of your essence ( sounds salacious - huh? ) in the first sentence, that those of us who feel compelled to respond will find it convenient to use the copy/paste function as our header and avoid the irrepressibly disgusting process of generating a thoughtful header indicating that which we wish to respond to. .. Whew! .... Almost forgot that which prompted this. ..... Sig Sauers and stashes go together. LIke apple pie and motherhood?.... Or..... A guy ( WW:broad ) with a P226 is never alone. Afraid? Nah!

(Sat Sep 27 1997 22:11 - ID#25588)
Taken from Sy Harding's Street Market Report:"Coming up for 1998 is the most dependable market static we have ever run across. It is this: Without exception, from whatever is the market low in the 2nd year of every Presidential term since 1914, the market has gained an average of 52% to its high in the following year. This positive action has taken place in every Administration, regardless of which party is in power, in war or peace, in boom times or recession, in overvalued markets or undervalued markets. The most recent occurrence, the 1995 market rally, also confirmed the reliability of this indicator. 1994 was the 2nd year of the first Clinton term. From the Dow's low of 3593 on 4/4/94 to its high the following year ( at 5216 on 12/13/95 ) , the gain was 45%. 1998 will be the 2nd year of this Administration."

(Sat Sep 27 1997 22:12 - ID#227238)
Donald: "This from a guy that can't spell optimist ) " .... Or brokkly. .... Off to my friend's, really huge, wine cellar. ~~poof~~~

(Sat Sep 27 1997 22:12 - ID#344211)

excellent re-tort-------
and by one recognized for his wisdom! immfat
read castaneda and "see" another way of "seeing."

thanks--------------!; )

(Sat Sep 27 1997 22:15 - ID#26793)
GEORGE COLE: I was trying to make the point a few days ago that real interest rates today at 5.5% ( 6.5-1.0 ) are the highest since the Depression. In order to arrive at the real rate you must subtract the inflation or deflation rate. Thus in 1932 real rates were 25% ( nil-25 ) for a time. In April of 1980 real rates were only about 3% ( 17-14 ) .

(Sat Sep 27 1997 22:18 - ID#227238)
Kuston: One final, non jocular, comment. I first read the damn thing in 1967. This will be, at least the third reading. I consider it one of the most influential ( seminal ) books of my experience. It probably says more about me than Ayn Rand .... but so be it.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 22:25 - ID#30116)

(Sat Sep 27 1997 22:25 - ID#364147)
@ evening folks
Evening all..........go gold!

(Sat Sep 27 1997 22:27 - ID#30116)

(Sat Sep 27 1997 22:31 - ID#26793)
VORONSKY: Abbott & Costello, I am sure that I have seen everything they ever did more than once. When I was a kid during WWII the local scrap dealer would give you a free Saturday movie theatre ticket worth 12c for every wagonload of scrapmetal you brought in. He must have made as much as Bud and Lou.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 22:37 - ID#364147)
WW: When ya commin up to Cape Breton.....I could give ya the "grand tour" and you'd leave here a "right-winger"...yeah,even YOU!...if you are serious about CB info, I'll give it to you over e-mail: ....come see how wacked-out left-wing politics can destroy a culture ....but the "natural beauty" of the place more than makes up for the short-comings...a "must see" place and I'm glad for the experience...

(Sat Sep 27 1997 22:37 - ID#30116)
FWIW -- Driefontein, Western Deep, Vaal Reefs, and Pan Am Silver seem to making good moves. Whether this is a one day ( or week ) wonder, remains to be seen. Overall, the trend is still down. The risk is, well, you know... For the last few weeks I've thought that we were going to test the 1993 lows, but then again, maybe these are the 'inflation' adjusted 1993 lows? I've got to learn to keep that 'wishful' thinking under control. :- )

(Sat Sep 27 1997 22:45 - ID#30116)
TED -- Howdy!

elf -- CDE looks good until mid sixteens. Eighteen seems to be tough sledding, but this time, who knows? It'll give you a chance to get some practice with those stop loss orders or perhaps get really confused and try some stop limit orders. :- )

(Sat Sep 27 1997 22:57 - ID#195260)

Sorry for that interruption, I didn't mean to ask a question then leave.

How do I respond? If Selfishness doesn't sit right next to gold - I'm
in the wrong place.

I am glad I read the fiction books first. They are easier to read
and it gave me a chance to adjust to her writting style.

Things are getting alittle busy around here - hopefully anotherday
we can discuss this.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 23:00 - ID#364147)
@ Earl
Earl: happy birthday dude!!....keep drinkin....and thinkin of $#@%^&*!! Panda:top of the evening to ya....Jtflick ( 15:48 ) late in the cycle....

(Sat Sep 27 1997 23:11 - ID#364147)
@ dumbest move of the day
forgot to log off....was online for 6.5 hours!...done worse....but hey, not bad for a Saturday.......34 degrees ( brrrrrrrrrrrr ) fireplace cookin...

(Sat Sep 27 1997 23:12 - ID#335190)
Sad @ Beer Sales. (Sweaty Labours-Demolish-To Replenish) No More eh!
September 25, 1997
Britain's beermakers drowning their sorrows

LONDON ( AP ) - The beer market hasn't totally gone flat, but some of
Britain's brewers are staring pretty grimly at the bottom of the glass.
The troubles of their rapidly changing industry were highlighted Thursday
when the giant beer maker Carlsberg-Tetley said it would close or sell
three of its five breweries and eliminate 1,500 jobs - or 40 per cent of its British workforce.

"This is horrific," said Ben Wardle of the Campaign for Real Ale, a beer
drinkers' advocacy group. "Decades of brewing heritage are being poured
away like old slops."

The gloom spread to the London Stock Exchange, where disappointing
business at more beer companies pushed their stocks down about two per

Now, says association spokesman Tim Hampson, there are far fewer "sweaty laborers who would go into a pub and demolish four or five pints just to replenish their body fluids."

(Sat Sep 27 1997 23:12 - ID#18970)
Ted I emailed ya at that last address is that ok. FDR/UNION yes my friend. Cape Breton sounds great/ ie completely out of main stream. How many hours drive from NYC do you figure?

(Sat Sep 27 1997 23:18 - ID#18970)
How does one end up in Cape Breton? Luck?Design?Fate? It must be a great visit for any North American who happens to get there.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 23:31 - ID#18970)
If we meet you will either leave a progressive or at least understand which side of the coin I forthcome.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 23:52 - ID#57232)
Looks like a peaceful night at Kitco. Earl: I appreciate your post 16:03 today. Our culture is, as you say, one step out of the cavedwelling stage -- far behind our technology. Not a stable situation.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 23:55 - ID#57232)
Donald, Mike Sheller: Any comments on my 15:12 post on why gold stocks should go up with the stock market -- beause we are repeating the external pattern of inflation that triggered the 1987 crash? Gold stocks doubled that year, beginning while the market was still going up.

(Sat Sep 27 1997 23:59 - ID#364147)
WW: fate... It's been a strange "trip" to get here but where will it end???...