George Cole: Any words of wisdom regarding why the price of gold has dropped in the last 1 1/2 years in dollars, but has been steady or rising for the past 2 1/2 years in Swiss francs? I don't believe anyone could say with a straight face that the Swiss franc was weaker than the dollar.

WW: I will never be a progressive....might might go farther to the "right"....though....Meatcove ( a town ) is the one must-stop place in CB...@ the far northern tip,literally @ the end of the road...or as our friend Mary MacNeil said when she took us there for the first time..."I am now taking you to the end of the earth"....spookie....heavy "vibes" @ that place...not in most tourist brochures dude....

Ted: I've been to the Bay of Fundy, Moncton, and swam in the ocean on the beach there opposite Prince Edward island. We were a bit disappointed by the absence of the tidal bore, but the tide was well over 10 feet when we were there. The same summer I visited my Dad in Searsport, Me, tried to swim in the ocean and immedately froze. How much farther is it from Moncton to Cape Breton? I envy you -- my job requires a minimum of one million population, so I'm not transplantable till I retire. Not soon enough!

Jtflick: I am about a six hour drive from Moncton....and Cape Breton ( the causeway ) is about 4 hours from there....Takes us nine hours to get to the U.S.A. border in Calais Maine....the ocean is much warmer here ( thank god ) than Maine+ the Bay of Fundy....

Good night all............

September 28, 1997

Half a million Israelis on strike

JERUSALEM, Sept 28 ( Reuter ) - An Israeli labour court cleared the way on Sunday for an eight-hour general strike by more than 500,000 workers.
Strike organisers said it would paralyse public offices, airports and a host of industries. A lawyer for the Histadrut labour federation said the court had limited a planned open-ended general strike to the hours of 0400 to 1200 GMT on Sunday with an understanding that another hearing would take place at 0700 GMT on Monday.

September 27, 1997
FOCUS-Kuwait union rejects call for oil strike end

KUWAIT, Sept 27 ( Reuter ) - A Kuwaiti oil workers union leading a strike at the vital Mina al-Ahmadi refinery and oil export terminal on Saturday rejected a conditional offer for talks and threatened to widen the strike action.
State Kuwait National Petroleum Co ( KNPC ) expressed readiness to start talks with striking workers provided they call off their strike which started at 7 a.m. ( 0400 GMT ) on Saturday.

"This offer is rejected," said union secretary Salah al-Ali. "Any conditional offer for dialogue is rejected." "What negotiations start with conditions and threats?," asked Ali. "We have a plan to widen the strike in the coming 48 hours although we hope the dispute can be solved through positive and constructive talks."

Kuwait has an OPEC crude oil production quota of two million bpd. Oil exports are the Gulf Arab state's main source of revenue.
Kuwait controls some 10 percent of the world's oil reserves.

The strike is the latest in a series of disputes between unions and state oil firms since Kuwait was freed in 1991 of a seven-month Iraqi occupation.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/KUWAIT-STRIKE.html

Friday, September 26, 1997
'90s' living standards compared to Depression

By ALAN TOULIN
Ottawa Bureau Chief The Financial Post
The 1990s has been a lost decade comparable to the Depression in terms of lower living standards and stagnant income, says a new economic study by the Centre for the Study of Living Standards.

A difference today, in comparison with the 1930s, is the growing tax bite, the paper says. Taxes as a share of personal income rose from 21.5% in 1989 to 24.5% in 1996.
http://www.canoe.ca/FPNews/eco_sep26_90slivings.html

JTFlick: You are right , we are all right, the Swiss Franc, and human
nature will prove to be indicators of things to come. Remember patience
is a virtue. PS will it be worth having amidst all the ashes. I hope so.

JTFlick: You are right , we are all right, the Swiss Franc, and human
nature will prove to be indicators of things to come. Remember patience
is a virtue. PS will it be worth having amidst all the ashes. I hope so.

Donald - re your 22:15 post to George Cole. What would real interest rates be today if you used the same method of calculating the CPI as was used in 1980 ? I haven't done the calculation, but I do know that the 1980 CPI was based on a completely different calculation to the 1997 CPI ( eg, real estate accounted for about 40% of the CPI then and accounts for zero now ) . Actually, if you use money supply growth as the only legitimate, objective means of measuring inflation, then current real interest rates are negative versus around 6% in 1980. One of the reasons for the incredible bull market in financial assets is because real rates are so low.

Cheers, Milhouse

Lihir Gold is located on an island about 600 kilometers from the New Guinea mainland and is not effected by El Nino or the tribal problems on the mainland. See
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/26/pdg_y0023_1.html for some details.
With 21.3 million ounces in their proven and probable reserves and a resource of 42 million ounces ( some say 56 million ounces or more ) this company managed by an arm of RTZ, one of the worlds major miners rates a close look.
Check http://www.vengold.com for details. As Vengold ( tse:ven, vengf on the nasdaq ) owns 9.4% of Lihir Gold.
Vengolds earlier problems in tallying up gold at Kilometer 88 should be given less priority by investors. They still own the properties and and its quality management should be given some investment consideration.

World's Smallest Political Quiz

Take the World's Smallest Political Quiz to find your political identity.

Choose Y when you agree with a statement, M for Maybe, Sometimes or
Need-More-Information, or choose N for No.
http://www.self-gov.org/fee-quiz.shtml

This article is well worth five of your allotted minutes on this orb.


http://www.afr.com.au/content/970927/perspective/perspective2.html

The Giants win the division! The Giants win the division! The Giants win the division! The Giants win the division!

Good morning Nick--Outstanding AFR article! The SE Asian situation looks like it's spiraling downward and out of control. A must read! Hope it stimulates commentary here.

Weather on the "golden continent" for Monday.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/weather/default.htm

Auric--in the easy chair. G'day mate. Great article isn't it!! The impact on the US economy is certainly muchos dineros. Yanks have no idea how much Mad Albright and the esteemed Mr. Robert Rubin have upset the Asians with their support of guys like Soros. The usual US ethnocentricity ( see Aurator--Aussies know a coupla words more than two syllables ) is going to cost them big time, and the Asians are spitting mad and absolutely ropeable about the recent downturn in their currencies/markets etc. Kick a tiger in the ass and you're gonna get your xxxx's bitten off!!! Mahathir is a spokesperson for a lot more than Malasia. He is speaking for half the world's population when he decries Western economic imperialism!! Ignore it at your peril!!!


PS--Giant whats????? ( S.F.Giants?? )

I totally agree that was a gratuitous and foolish slap in the face on the part of the US Secretaries of State and Treasury. Add that to the gloating of Clinton at the Denver summit--Remember THAT? A seething anger building there if you ask me!

Any Aotearoans awake tonight?

Auric--nice to know someone in the world is still alive. Did you ever see that movie "On the Beach??" about the end of the world and a nuclear sub ends up in Melbourne ( which is truly the end of the world ) to check out a morse code message being randomly transmitted?? Turns out a window shade was hooked up to the morse code key. When the world ends, Auric, I hope we will still have Kitco!!!

Auric--I want to send an e-mail message to my niece at Notre Dame. Can you find me an address--computer department perhaps??

Nick-The "Giants win" post is a reference to the year ( 1954? ) when the NY Giants came back from 12 games down in the final month of the season to beat the Brooklyn Dodgers in the final game and take the pennant. The radio announcer kept repeating "The Giants win the pennant!" over and over.

Nick, Auric Morning, evening, ""The Asia-Pacific faces the danger of a split down the middle of the Pacific Ocean, creating an east-west divide." copied from Nick's article.. Recommend the sensationally entitled, but deeply researched ' The Coming War With Japan" Friedman & Lebard 1991. This is an historical division that has often been at the forefront of international tensions politics.
Here is a rather revealing quote from Edwin O Reischauer, Former Ambassador to Japan, writing in 1953

"During the twentieth century as a whole, no country has more consistently regarded itself as in essential conflict with the United States than Japan, and no country has benn more uniformly looked upon a potential enemy by Americans. The burden of proof, perhaps, should rest upon those who assume Japanese-American friendship rather than those who expect the contrary."

That was in 1953, now in 1997 there are a lot more nations who "regard themselves as in essential conflict with the United States" why there must be a dozen or more,
This book is illustrative of my apprehension about Darwin, of great strategic importance and very vulnerable. was there before the Hurricanw and have never been back..

Earl Rajneesh,,, had a friend, a gold-miner and gold-bug who found himself with Rajneesh in Poona for several years,, an intersting experience, and real suprise to me to see Rajneesh and my friend on TV in an interview done with Alan Wicker ( of BBC ) where Rajnessh had belittled A.W. and made him wear a knotted handkerchief over his hair becuase " the oils and vapours from AW's greased-back hair offended the delicate nostrils of Rajneesh.

You are right, conmen, mountebanks, snake-oil-salesmen, charlatans ...they will be out in force in the next couple of years as the world becomes infested with millenialism.. got one here called Matraiya. now that's one thing missing at kitco, *Chanelled* investment Guru, connected to the great Babylonian Speculator CheaChops..;-}}

Zurich Axiom # 6 On Mobility

Avoid putting down roots.. They impede motion.

Be ready to jump away from trouble or seize opportunity. You do not have to bounce from one speculation to another like a ping pong ball. All your moves should be made only after a careful assessment of the odds for and against, and no move should be made for trivial reasons.

Minor axiom IX-- Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia. ( Nick's comment: don't fall in love with a bad investment, 'cause it ain't gonna love you back!!Sell it and move on ) .

Aoteoroa = The land of the long white cloud..

Nick-- Try this for e mail info@nd.edu Here is Notre Dame website http://www.nd.edu/ Good luck mate.

Auric, this reference to the Giants, is interesting in an anthropological sense ;= ) ) Is the corrolary, the contrarian's move, like rooting for the Chicago Cubs-- the doormat of the National League according to one of my favourite song-writers, Steve Goodman, in the Dying Cub Fans' last request? := ) )

Auric--thanks mate--will try to send a note to my niece.

Aurator--The next time the Yanks get stuck into us about irrelevant postings--remind them of the past 24 hours. I've spent half the day trying to find a way to buy broccoli futures!!! If an ex-American Pres. don't like 'em they're probably a great investment!!!

Howdy aurator--If you want to understand America's National Pastime, you could do worse than go rent out "Bull Durham". The "Giants win the division" is a sorry imitation for the real thing, eh?

ALL
While there has been a lot of talk at kitco about the y2k bug, it will be just one factor for this millenium fever that will soon began pounding its drum.. ( Soundtrack from Jaws please.. ) as the beat gets louder, there will be more and more confusion, less certainty, Entropy rules...doubters-Y-Us....
Georgetown, Waco, Shri Om, Heaven's Gate..these are the warning quakes, as JTFlick posted here earlier, " I have sadly come to realize that what is most dangerous about the millenium is not what might happen, but the perception of those who are convinced they must shape the events around their own particular beliefs."
There is already the beginning of the clamour..

doubters-R-Us

JTFLICK: Your question about the action of gold shares in 1987 as compared to all shares in general is a good one. I don't have a ready answer so lets try and figure it out. When we look at the Dow/Gold Ratio we are answering the question, How many ounces of gold am I paying for the Dow? Lets do the same thing with gold shares. How many ounces of above ground gold am I willing to pay for expectations of below ground gold? Here is a chart that does that, regretfully, only back to 1992.
http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/Ratio.html
In 1992 folks were willing to pay 5 ounces, now only 3. What are the possible reasons for the difference? Were they paying too much in 1992? In retrospect the market says yes. Let me try and find some XAU figures for 1987 and we can develop this theme further.

To all: Good morning! I guess at this time of day most who are awake are from downunder! I am barely so, awake that is, in the US-upover ( ? ) . I need my coffee, and a few minutes to read that excellent electronic newspaper, AFR, posted by you, Nick I believe. Aurator: you are as eloquent as always. Nodoubt words flow easily from you, be it morning or late at night.

TED and ALL--noticed your comment about not logging off for 6 hours and have heard from others about downloading Kitco and reading leisurely off-line. Well guys/gals, I must have it good here in OZ. I paid $365 for one years UNLIMITED internet access ( ie--$1/day ) . I pay 30 cents for a phone call from a dedicated modem. With associated fees it costs me about $1.50 to log on in the morning and leave it on Kitco ALL DAY LONG. I can then pop in and have a little browse or look up my share programs, the daily papers, weather etc. anytime I'm near the computer. I never bother to log off unless I'm going out for the day. From all the moaning about saving access time etc., I take it you'all haven't got it that good. The above figures are $A--so = to about US$1.08 a day for 24 hours of internet access. It does cost me an extra 30 cents every now and then when I get unwillingly logged off. Still less than two bucks/day to stay on the net all day. Is it not the same for all of you??

Nick--My Internet fee is $20 per month, unlimited usage. Extra phone line about $10/month all local calls. So, about a dollar a day. What a bargain for ringside seats at Kitco! Whatever happens, we'll watch it from here.

Donald: Appreciate your post of 06:39. I look forward to your words of wisdom, which I hope will justify my current long position in gold stocks. Guess you sleep as little as I do.
Your post brings up an item that has frustrated this gold bug for years. Where does one get daily gold stock prices before 1975? My graphical data on gold stocks for the thirties was painstakingly taken from a 1944 Financial times microfiche copied at the Toronto Canada public library - this was several years ago, and caused a bit of a stir among those who heard what I was looking for! I can't afford one of those $300-600 type vendors, without risking the wrath of my better half, whose common sense is often better than mine! I have been scouring the databases for years -- even historical tree ring data, daily sunspot data, neutron flux data, geomagnetic activity, dust veil data, etc. Can run up a bill pretty fast if one is not careful.
We need to ask Mike Sheller if the net might be the "awakening" oft referred to. Perhaps also our skills to predict the future are more finely honed when we dialog this way ( apologies, aurator ) . I think even Mike Sheller's predictive Astrological skills work better "real time" this way.

JTFLICK: There is a lot of good stuff at this site. I am still learning and have not found historical XAU yet. We can ask Vronsky ( if he is still speaking with me, I spelled his name wrong yesterday ) Here is a spot you may want to bookmark.
http://www.kitco.com/gold.londonfix.html

Mephistopheles: Re - 01:59. No offense, but it makes me uneasy talking to you, because I don't whether I am talking to you or your namesake. However, the real ruler of the underworld would use an innocent sounding name, like that of one of our world leaders might use ( I will not say who ) , and would be wearing a well-tailored business suit. The master of illusion, as I recall.

There are bulls, there are bears. But what does the "RHINO" have to say about bonds and gold? Find out in TRADING THE RHINO, Mike
Sheller's trading strategy that even a kid can use:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/astro922.html

MILHOUSE: I certainly agree with you about the CPI changes which obfuscate for governmental purposes. But what else do we have to go by?
What do you think the real interest rate was, for example in 1932 or in 1980? It is the real rate that matters. Most of my adult life the real rate was 1 to 2%. After tax deduction it was free. That is how we got in this mess. Now we have a real rate of 6 to 7%. It is up to 20% on credit cards and we wonder why there are 1.3 million U.S. personal bankruptcies this year.

VRONSKY: Sorry for speling your name worong last night. It was late. Can you point me to historical XAU figures? Looking for 1987.

Nick ( can a beer ) : Mornin Mate....a little too early for me but give me an hour....re=internet costs: I pay $42Canadian ( 30.33 U.S. ) a month for a maximum of 120 hours internet time but anything after 11 PM are FREE hours and not included in the 120....Weather: 7 degreees ( C ) + incredibly clear....had our first frost of the year last night...P.S. No phone charges with that internet bill...Go FOSTERS

Good morning Ted: We are at 55F now. Yesterday was a perfect fall day. It will be nice here through November or more. Best time of year.

Nick, and fellow non-Americans: Did the waking activities of North America quell your words? ( Aurator - apologies again! ) Your collective comments about the US as seen by people who live in the US are well appreciated, even if they are not complimentary.
In the US, we only get what the newsmedia decide to give us, and in the "land of the free", the small independent newsman is virtually a thing of the past. When a few large conglomerates control the newsmedia, sad things happen to what we Americans read. It's a good thing that supporters of our nuclear defense system collaborated with those Physicists at CERN ( as I recall ) to create our savior, the internet. Here's to free speech whenever we can get it, and wherever it comes from!
Incidentally, news about one of the biggest economic disasters of the decade ( possibly longer ) namely SE Asia has received little attention in the US. Only a bit more than the Baring's crisis. Surely, problems affecting 1/3 of the World's human population are worth more attention.

I wish one of the financial talking heads would have the courage to do a real CPI for the typical American family. I am sitting here looking at my house insurance bill..and the rate increase is nearly 11%, not tomention that last month I received a letter stating that coverage would be limited on the cost replacement side of the policy, what a racket, I suppose all for shareholder enhancement. Got to keep pumping steroids to that bull on Wall Street. But back to my main point, items that should be used in the CPI: Home insurance, auto insuance, gasoline,electricity, heating, dairy products, breads, cooking oils, paper products,fruits and vegetables, meat, taxes...and others could be added..does not everybody use these products and purchase them on a regular basis? This seems to me to be a much better indicator of inflatiuon than the garbage Wall Street and Washington try to ram down everyones throat. Would be refreshing to see someone with gonads to step forward and calculate an inflation rate that the "average guy on the street" could relate to...

Donald, what I'm saying is you need to be careful how you calculate the "real" interest rate. If you do the calculation using the CPI, you will definitely end up with an incorrect result. If you do the calculation using M3 growth rates you will determine that the real interest rate is currently negative.

Your point is very important - the real value of interest rates, and the direction of those rates, are 2 of the most critical factors affecting US financial markets. The third factor ( and probably the most important ) is the value of the US dollar. Of course all 3 factors are inter-twined.

Cheers, Milhouse

Donald: REF "Can you point me to historical XAU figures? Looking for 1987." What do you need specifically? Highs, Lows, Daily, Weekly? I'll see what i can find. About name Spellin' no offense taken.

Ted: Good morning! I appreciate your post about Cape Breton. This little group at Kitco seems to me a little island of hope for the rest of the world -- the awakening has come to some of us. I'm not saying everything posted at this website is honorable and worthy, but it is much better than if this site never existed.
Aurator -- have you lost your voice? Your words grace the e-wires better than mine.

VRONSKY, JTFLICK: I found exactly what I was looking for. Kitco has everything!
http://www.tscn.com/wsc/timespan.html?TSym=XAU.X?445,12

Bob M - the problem is, if they calculated a CPI that the average family could relate to it would be much higher than the official CPI, which would then lead to the realisation that inflation is not dead and cause all sorts of problems like higher interest rates, lower stock prices and higher gold prices.
Cheers, Milhouse

Bob M: I haven't done the calculation you describe recently. As I recall, I summarized our own annual personal cost of living expense -- just the essentials in the US. The inflation rate in the US is at least 5% for the last ten years, despite the hype otherwise. Our illustrious leaders calculate our CPI using complex formulas that boggle the mind. Indexing social security benefits to the CPI and selling inflation-indexed bonds doesn't help the sitution. Also at one time both spouse's didn't work - I remember my childhood.

College costs are a separate problem that continues to escalate at nearly 10% annual rates, as if the inflation years of the 70's never ended.
We do have a real world-wide threat of deflation, but that is a separate matter. We still need CPI data we can trust.

Nick; Thanks for the article on escalating Asian-U.S. tensions. AP reports this morning that Malaysia plans to increase its trade with Cuba, defying U.S. warnings. Not inconceivable that Asians will move to push gold sharply higher if tensions continue to grow.

Donald, and to all: Your are a credit to our little group. I forgot that I had subscribed to Telescan, the service that you referenced. I am going to try to post the 1984-1997 XAU data for non-subscriber. Would you want the raw daily data, ( date,o,h,l,close ) ? I think I can get it to 1986 or 87.
Incidentally Telescan's non internet database goes back much further, but it was expensive, and I could not afford it. Perhaps someone else on Kitco has a subscription. Let me know if you want the download ( upload? ) of XAU.

JTFLICK: I am not a subscriber yet I had no problem gaining access??? I have the chart on paper now and have "eyeballed" the following for 1987:

Ounces of gold required to buy the monthly average XAU for 1987

Jan 5.1, Feb 4.45, Mar 3.72, Apr 3.65, May 4.0, Jun 4.1, Jul 4.3,

Aug 3.68, Sep 3.2, Oct 3.1, Nov 5.2, Dec 4.42

Good mornin Donald+ Jtflick!!....what a spectacular day on the North Atlantic ( 53 degrees+ crystal clear ) ...Bob M ( 8:10 ) the CPI IS a joke..eh! That AFR article Nick ( C ) posted on East versus West,mirrors what JIN ( who lives in Malaysia ) is saying....not everyone else in the world wants to live exactly as "Uncle Sam" does--hard to believe,but true!

Donald, here's a downloaded copy of XAU to 1984 from Wallstreet City, the web version of Telescan. Unfortunately the daily download Historical data ends 9/1/88.

Hey guys - don't blame Soros - he could never have done what he did if the Asian currencies weren't rotten to the core with inflation & zero backing. I get the biggest chuckle listening to the Malaysian, Indonesian, Hong Kong "leaders" stamp their little feet and scream their racist/ethnoicentric-hegemony accusations. Fact is, these "leaders" screwed their "own" people ( first of all, they don't "own" their "people" any more than Bill Clinton "owns" we Americans ) with a deliberate inflated currency. Soros just returned the favour and screwed their leaders and banks right back. If the Asian Tiger's had currencies backed by GOLD, SILVER, OR OIL, Soros wouldn't have tried anything. My only sympathy is for the 100's of millions of Malays, Indonesian, Thai common citizens who have been used by their government's policies of inflation. However, since our own Federal Reserve ( chuckle "our" - the American people sure as hell don't "own" or control that beast-cabal ) currency is back by the same vapor as the Asian Tigers, it'd be fair game for them to let the US$ have between the eyes. After all, Clinton, Rubin et al are screwing the American people just as bad. Ha! Wait 'til someone DOES publish an ***HONEST*** CPI. The Washington spinpolice will be out in force on every Sunday morning television Pravda talkshow to talk it down. Face it: the common man is only safe with respect to his savings by own gold or silver or some other previous metal. It is the ultimate slap in the face of Rubin and his ilk that we will not be screwed with worthless inflated paper promises. The world governments know that the current system of paper control is teetering on the brink of collapse - the public's recognition & understanding of this would cause an unheard of rush for real money - gold - and the *utter* loss of power & control they have built up over the last 70 years. That is why we will see an electronic funds transfer system replace paper currencies and precious metals outlawed. Welcome to the world poice state.

Donald: I forgot I had this. I have tried to upload twice, and locked up. Will try again later. Hope I didn't crash the Kitco upload site with an 87k file.
I forget where I got this, so you might want to cross-check some of it when I do get through. Looks like you don't need it anymore, but perhaps others will benefit.

Donald
I have the XAU back to Dec83 in ascii format.
email : sharefin@cairns.net.au and I'll return as an attachment.

JTFLICK, ALL: Someone please check my analysis. I just did a quick study of the XAU/Spot ratio for 1987. Sept. 1987 the Ratio was 3.2, Oct was 3.1. Right now the XAU/Spot Ratio is 3.16. In 1987 gold stocks dropped right along with everything else and by November the XAU/Spot Ratio was 5.2. In summary, the XAU/Spot Ratio could be giving us the same signal it gave in 1987, days before the October crash. The all time XAU/Spot Ratio low was 2.4 in January, 1996. The high was 6.21 in June, 1986. ( I only have data back to Nov. 1983 ) Comments?

Ted: Do a search on Netrover. They are in Ontario and Qubec for sure and maybe Nova Scotia/CapeBreton. I pay C$16.50 for 24 hours a day everyday and the service is fine.

ISP costs: I use smartworld communications. The software is $69.95 and a one time setup fee of $19.95 ( U.S. ) is charged at the outset. That's it forever. No monthly fees, no per hour charges, it's advertiser funded and the ads are only on the home page http://www.smart1.net. So far they are in only major U.S. cities, but they are growing. They just expanded from one router to seven. Most major U.S. cities have several ISPs which charge 99.95 for one year with no per hour charges. This is so cheap, that if you conduct business or trades over the net, having two vendors, with one for backup is very smart. Happy vendor hunting.

El nino will begin to show up in eastern Canada in about a month --so they say. Predictions are that in the Toronto area and points immediately north the average home owner will save $200 this year on heating his house. Car owners will save on gasoline bills. Cities will save millions on reduced plowing and salting the roads. Farmers will benefit by earlier springs and longer crop years. So a boon awaits the average guy--except: additional dry cleaning costs from the salt and water "slop" the drivers will splash on them and car drivers may see additional salt damage to their as a result of salt and warmer weather.

Merchants will sell fewer shovels skates and skis and the ski hills operators are going to have a bad year as well. On balance it will be a money saver of several hundreds of dollars for most and that isn't to be overlooked in the land of free brain surgery.

To Donald, all: Sorry about the 84-97XAU graph. It worked when I clicked on the icon by my post, but I must have had the file loaded on my computer as well. It is frustrating when one has html files with embedded graphics files that come from elsewhere. I still can't upload the XAU data, Donald, but it seems you have what you need.
Donald: I now understand what you were after. Could the historical 1987 flight to gold stocks ( as exemplified by the XAU/spot gold ratio ) already be occurring? Could this ratio be a more sensitive indicator than the XAU alone? Clever!

It can't crash of course during October - even a conventional decline would not be assumed bullish if it gets a weekly basis close below Dow 7775 during next six weeks:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger929.html

And for something different:
http://www.duke.edu/~dhp/dowhtm.html
At the bottom of the page is a link to mutual funds.
It is currently long gold - short dow.
Interesting system he uses.

SPUD MASTER: your 9:15...BRAVO. Couldn't a said it better with twice the words. It never fails to burn me the way "speculators" are blamed so conveniently when governments foul up their markets and finances. Those "speculators" are "investors" when they're pouring the money IN, and evil incarnate when they're pulling it out . Where people can't speculate, there is no freedom. Where there is no freedom, there is no progress. Where there is no progress there is collapse and destruction. If it WEREN'T for speculators, governments could continue their charades indefinitely, could they not. Speculators are the only people in the markets who do any THINKING. Hence "to speculate." I'd rather live in a society of speculators than one of lemmings and thugs. These Asian nations were given a great opportunity to cash in on the expensive burden developed nations were under in labor and manufacture. They apparently were not "developed" enough to properly manage their newfound prosperity. Let them stop crying and do a little better by their own people.

El Nino El Nino El Nino.
What the heck is El Nino. Can someone point me
to a link or explain. Wind?, rain? pacific ocean? What?
Thank you in advance

To all: You may be interested that our Sunday paper had an article on Janet Reno who is considering seriously assigning an independent counsel to investigate illegal campaign fund activities before the last US presidential election. I know this is not a popular point among some of my fellow American Kitcoites, but earlier in her career as Attorney General, she was more independent. I think she has a medical disorder such as Parkinson's which compromised her somewhat. Can't get full retirement is you get fired prematurely! I think she is no star of brillance, and has been manipulated in the past. I hope for the sake of the US, she goes ahead with the investigation. It's rather disturbing when the congressional investigators find more incriminating evidence than our own depatment of justice! Where are all those memos that the department of justice presumably collected? Are the only ones left in the hands of the congressional investigators? Harold Ickes may be a key player in all of this -- he is not easily intimidated!

Earl:

After the gold bottom at 313 you posted a chart that was awesome!

Do you have the chart updated?

Regards,

jkajfjaj

Donald: It is certainly worrisome that the XAU/goldspot ratio is already as high as it was just before the 1987 crash! I, for one want to retain my gold stock investments. What really worries me is that in 1987 the years of inflation were fresher in people's minds than they are now, and the "flight to gold" scenario was more probably more responsive than it is now.
Are we gold stock investors ( such as myself ) playing with fire?

Donald: I may have what you are saying backwards. A typical XAU might be 100. and a typical gold price 400.
XAU/gold = 0.25, and
gold/XAU = 4.

Which is it?

Auric - Re your 04:57, the Giants won that most dramatic of events on a home run by Bobby Thomson dubbed "the shot heard 'round the world'. The radio announcer of the classic was Rus Hodges.

Donald: My apologies. You did spell it out -- ounces of gold to buy XAU. I should read your posts more carefully. Please correct me if I'm wrong. The key point is that this ratio goes up when everyone prefers gold stocks, and down when everyone prefers to buy gold. Did I finally get it right?
Thanks in advance -- sorry everything I did failed to get through.

Nick -- Thanks for coming to the rescue. I'm new at uploading files.

JTFlick : I'm all hot air. Pay no attention to my Baccardi induced
rambling. What do you think about RYO? I'm waist deep in ALTA
waiting for the bull.

Thoughts ( not original )

Have you ever noticed that when you are driving on the highway, everyone going slower than you is an idiot and everyone driving faster is a maniac?

I have a huge portfolio of penny stocks. Unfortunately, they didn't start out that way.

My New Year's resolution is to stop repeating myself and to avoid redundancy.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and you can get rid of him on weekends.

I used to be decisive but now I am not so sure.

TTFN

Donald: You will have to forgive this confused physicist. I get for the following dates, using eyeballed monthly data:

Sept 1987 Goldspot/XAU = 2.9
Just before Oct 17,87 Goldspot/XAU = 466/140 = 3.3
Just after Oct 17,87 Goldspot/XAU = 470/100 = 4.7
Nov 1987 Goldspot/XAU = 460/95 = 4.8

When the gold stocks are preferred to gold this ratio is low, but when gold is preferred to gold stocks the ratio is high. Did I finally get it right?

OK my friend, a bit of advice from you please... ( :- ) )

My snowmobile pass is now on sale for $90 till Dec 1 ..... $110 after.....

With El Nino coming to Canada, should I hold off as I might not need the pass at all due to lack of snow? It's not in the Almanac ya know !

TTFN ( :- ) )

Where did all those girls that Earl mentioned go to? I KNOW ...... !!!

Those charts of yours have "inner bigness" again ! ( :- ) )

TED/Selby : Cost for internet her in cottage country is $29 ( C ) for 60 hours/month. Must talk quick!

JTFLICK: I would say it another way. How much of my safely held in pocket gold am I willing to risk on a chance that I can dig more out of the ground by buying the XAU. Today the XAU is 102, Spot is 323. I will have to give up .319 ounces to gain one share each of ABX, PDG, TVX, etc. I was saying it wrong before. Let me recalculate and start from scratch. My previous calc was the mirror image, upside down! That is the way it is done at the site I posted earlier ( auger ) . Just as valid but harder to understand. Also, I found a chart in my paper files with a reconstruction of the XAU back to 1979. It is prepared by a Mr. John Carder of Topline Investment Graphics and simulates the XAU to the date before it was actually available. I think we are getting somewhere. It ain't easy! I am going out to fertilize the lawn before it rains. See you later.

Mikey: http://www.yahoo.com/Science/Earth_Sciences/Meteorology/Weather_Phenomena/El_Nino_and_La_Nina/

Louis Cypher: I am more expert with gold mutual fund trading due to the rules of my retirement fund. However, RYO ( and Glamis - GLG ) are both low-cost gold producers who should be able to survive this bear period in gold without closing up shop. As I recall the president of RYO, Margaret Witte, knows what she is doing. Other Kitcoites may be able to help you some more.
Personally, I think the gold bear is over, because we have had one for over 1 1/2 years. Intermediate bears in gold rarely last longer than this. Longer term gold may be flat for a while unless we have a dollar crisis.
If Louis Cypher is your real name, perhaps you have some relatives, or ancestors with very confidential backgrounds! Hope this post helps!

JT RYO is transitioning from high cost to low cost. Looks good.
Ted: I take it Cape Breton is about 16 hours from NYC?

jkdflsa; ( to earl ) : I'm at a loss. I don't know which chart it was or when. I'd be happy to do it, if you could give a date for that post so I could get a handle on just which chart you're referring to.

Thanks Ron in Sacremento

Who says Royal Oak Mine ( RYO ) is a low cost producer?
I guess RYO would be a low cost producer if
the price of gold was $800 US. Come on.

London Bullion Marketing Association is best described as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Daily gold trading NEARLY TWICE South Africas annual production:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron929.html

Hi All,
I was lurking here for a while, and now decided to post. I make my own analysis of gold spot prices and I am going to post a few short-time forecast messages. I will post also a history of these forecasts. The message for Monday, September 29 is "sell".

New millennium could be a cybernightmare
By Patrice Hill
The Washington Times

Talk of recession is rare these days, but some
prominent forecasters are saying the economy's
seemingly charmed life could end in the year 2000
with a crash as key computer system failures trigger
widespread work stoppages.
One of the strongest warnings to date of the
potential danger to the world economy from
computers being unable to recognize the year 2000
came in a statement issued by the central banks of the
top 10 industrialized countries after meeting in Basel,
Switzerland, Sept. 9.
The statement noted a potential for chaos and
failure in the international banking system unless the
world's banks take action immediately not only to
ensure that their own computers can function after the
turn of the century but that their billions of business
and individual customers are ready for the
changeover.
"The year 2000 issue is potentially the biggest
challenge ever faced by the financial industry," the
G-10 officials said, noting that "weak links in the
payments system" could pose a risk even to banks
and businesses whose computer systems are
functioning smoothly........
http://www.washtimes-weekly.com/wash_times/stories/culture.html

Ok Moon metal fans, silver is now pressed right up against the monster, ugly, overhanging downtrend line connecting the delightful '83 and '87 peaks. The space between 4.85 and $5 is the magic gap silver has to blast through. And blast it will if the direction next week is to be up. If it turns down from here, next big time support is around 4.10ish. This is do or die lads n' lassies. Hold your cyberbreath for the opening. An upside breakout here will be fast and hard and pull silver out of the big downtrend of the past 17 years!
Get the Champagne chilled. Either way, we'll want to drink some.

Delphi. Sell what? gold stocks too?

JTFLICK: I have finally got some good numbers, and I think I have the concept firmly and correctly in my head. Going back to January, 1979 to the present, if you bought the XAU for under .20 ounces, and sold before .32 ounces, you always made money. I don't have the software to plot it out but I have a paper graph that needs lots of points to be complete. The high point to date seems to be January, 1996 at .397 ounces. I will continue plugging in more data. I am only using monthly averages.

September, 1987 was .322 ounces. We are at .315 ounces now.

MIKE SHELLER: Have you ever done a chart on the XAU? Born December, 1983.

DONALD: No I haven't. I will need the DAY. Also the local time it began trading ( though I assume we can use the NYSE opening on that day in New York ) . Get me the DAY of first trade and I would LOVE to take a look at that sucker! Will report back for all, naturally!

DONALD: Second thought, that's a Philadelphia index, is it not? hmmm. Get me all the info you can...if ANYONE can, YOU can!

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors

Both FSAGX and FDPMX are in a powerful UPtrend.

Mikey: OK. So RYO isn't a low cost producer. Would you like it if the
gold bear turns in the next 6 months?
All: Anyone like Sunshine Mining for a silver play?
All: Why do I love ALTA so much? Could I be brainwashed?
All: When will we see consolidation? Would that signal life?

Forecast is for gold spot price

MIKE SHELLER: Here is the Phila Exchange site showing the makeup of the XAU. More to follow.
http://www.phlx.com/products/xau.html

LOUIS CYPHER: I have been hawking SSC for months now. Especially several weeks ago at 75 cents or so. If silver rallies from here, this is a 1.75 stock before first resistance. If it takes out its overhead downtrend line from '83 at just under $2, then it's a 2.75 stock. If it takes that out, it's a 7.25 stock. See my earlier post re silver. Tomorrow could be a crucial day. If silver turns down Monday, step back.

For Lou Cypher -
Didn't I see you playing the part of Robert De Niro in a movie
called "Angelheart"

Ok, maybe $5.50 best case for now.

Mike Sheller and Donald: I show a "birth date" of December 19, 1983 for the XAU. I gleaned this info from the charts section of the Microsoft Investor web site ( http://investor.msn.com/home.asp ) . You'll need Internet Explorer 3.02 or 4.0 to access the charts. Hope this helps.

DONALD: You're confusing me with fundamentals! I just need the date and location. We'll assume time is at the NYSE opening adjusted for local time. C'mon.

DONALD & JOHN: OK, I'm going to use December 19, 1983, 9:45 AM EST in New York. The house structure in this chart is not meaningful anyhow. I just want to pin down the Moon. ( We all know how important the MOON is, don't we gang? ) Report back later, if there are no objections.

September 28, 1997
IRS seeking remedies aimed at U.S. taxpayers

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - Lawmakers have rushed to stamp their names on legislation and the Internal Revenue Service has whipped out a list of remedial steps aimed at turning the agency into a more taxpayer-friendly zone. The flurry of activity resulted from last week's high-profile hearings in which taxpayers told stories of wrongful IRS treatment
and agents spoke of an internal culture that valued higher tax collections over people.

Lawmakers would have to act quickly, however, to pass IRS reform legislation this year, because of the short time left before Congress adjourns in November.

Taxpayers flooded the Senate Finance Committee, which held the hearings, with more stories of troubles related to the tax collection agency. More than 2,000 phone calls, faxes and e-mails were received last week alone, Ginny Flynn, committee spokeswoman, said. That compared with 1,000 over the six-month committee investigation.

Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin called for a meeting Monday with the senior IRS management team. "At this meeting, we want to have a candid conversation about this week's testimony, the efforts we have already discussed, and what other actions may be necessary," Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers wrote in a letter to Michael Dolan, acting IRS
commissioner.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/CONGRESS-IRS.html

TO:Louis Cypher. Yes I would like to. In fact I believe
gold will dip below $300us not far from now. This
way, it'll give me time to build up my cash.
My prediction is $270-280us. I believe gold will then turn
around and go up slowly but steady. This will be achieved when
the Kitco site is quiet ( extreme pecimissism ) . I dont think
I spelled that word correctly.

Gold, Japanese funds rise in latest week -
Lipper: Gold-oriented funds and Japanese funds
were among the top performers in the week ended
September 25, rising 3.76 percent and 2.85 percent
respectively, Lipper Analytical Services said on Friday
- Sep 26 5:16 PM EDT

Mike Sheller : Thanks I'll tune in on Monday.
John Disney : You are wise grasshopper.

What A day!!!...near ideal conditions with temperatures in the mid-60's,a bright sun and 15-20 MPH seabreez....my autumn custom is to paddle into the near constant wind and then have an easier time of it for the "trip" back....drifting home under a bright-blue sky,while checking out the ducks+loons....as close to the "here+now" as I can get....guess ya could call it "golden moments" ( satisfied Bart )

Donald, Mike Sheller: I should know better of all people to go back to first principles with this XAU/gold indicator. My physics advisor would have thought I forgot everything -- I may have caused some confusion with my posts. I have Windows on Wallstreet, and just plotted daily XAU/gold from 1984 to 1989.
What is interesting is that it bottomed at XAU/gold=0.175 on Aug 1986. I think this is about 2 years after the US dollar peak. It rallied to 0.325 mid April 1987, unsuccessfully tried to rally three times in one month cycles until about June 20, 1987, when it bottomed at XAU/gold=0.24. The final rally occurred from June 20 and peaked at about 0.338 near Oct 1. You may not be aware that the gold stock index WG580 ( TC2000 ) has trading volume, which increased 10x on a single day around Sept 20 1987, when insiders or pros must have sold their stocks.
As you say, Donald, 0.2 does seem to be the bottom.
Did you know about the earlier rally in gold stocks during the beginning of 1987? The XAU/gold ratio was almost as high on mid April 1987, as it was on its peak in October. Was this the Japanes - induced run on the dollar?
If we assume that gold is now grossly undervaled because of the antics of the LBMA, then the true gold price is probably more like $380-400. If we calculate the most optimistic XAU/gold ratio we get:

XAU/gold = 102/400 = 0.255

My conclusion is that we are potentially at risk in gold stocks right now, because as you say Donald, we are at the high end of the XAU/gold ratio. However, in analogy with high P/E stock ratios during recessions, it may not be as bad as it seems. What needs to happen is that gold bullion prices must normalize soon.
I am frustrated that I cannot post a graph of the daily XAU/gold ratio.
I will try to find time to study all of this in relation to the US dollar and interest rates in 1987. I look forward to your comments.

Mike Sheller: Like you analysis of Monday open as trend for coming months. I don't share your view on SSC. The Canadian minors will enjoy a greater rise vis a vis silver prices then the U.S. Majors because of their smaller share volume outstanding.

What is the current amount of Silver in COMEX warehouses? What is the WWW site to check?

One last view of Platinum- Coin World reported that the U.S. Eagle Platinum coin was released on Sep 25. This is currently being minted out of Defense Dept stockpiles, which the enabling legislation says has to be replaced by 2002. If platinum goes up, watch the mint take a bath on replacemnet, unless they are hedging.

Merrill Lynch paid out 45 million USD to ex-consultant's clients: lawyer

SINGAPORE, Sept 27 ( AFP ) - US investment bank Merrill Lynch has
paid out 45 million US dollars to clients of a former star
consultant now being sued by the company for alleged irregularities,
a report said here Saturday.
Lawyer K. Shanmugam, who is representing Merrill Lynch
International Bank in proceedings here against former consultant
Kevin Wallace, said the amount was paid to make good losses suffered
by some of the bank's high-net-worth clients.
Bank officials could not be reached for comment on the Straits
Times report.
Shanmugam told a Singapore appeals courts hearing Friday that
the payouts to former Wallace clients had been reported to the US
Securities and Exchange Commission, the newspaper said.
The bank has sued Wallace for unauthorized trading and
misrepresentation of his clients' portfolios and is claiming 14.3
million dollars plus compensation for losses incurred in meeting the
claims of his clients, the report said.
Wallace is currently out on bail in Hong Kong, where he was
arrested on charges of money laundering in July after leaving
Singapore.
The American banker has denied the charges and is contesting a
Singapore judicial order placing his assets under receivership by an
international audit firm, Arthur Andersen.
Wallace was a star consultant at Merrill Lynch, where he was
reportedly paid 27 million dollars over the last six years. He was
accused of forging statements to misrepresent clients' investments
and accounts.

DONALD, JOHN: BINGO! This has gotta be the chart. There is a triple conjunction in this baby ( Jupiter, Sun, Neptune ) beginning right at the degree orb that shows up in SO MANY individual gold corporation 'scopes. An orb from 19 degrees Sagittarius to 25 degrees where nearly every important gold company has a significant planet. In just about 5 years this orb will be conjuncted by Pluto, the most powerful longterm influence in the solar system. This is not only uncanny, it is a profound corroboration of my long term outlook showing a MONSTER influence on gold and silver in 2003, lasting INITIALLY til 2006. An incredible confirmation of what I have been putting together until now. I am in both your debt for this magnificent clue. I will alsoTRY to fathom the more immediate future, but THIS configuration JUMPED out at me as it came out of the computer. We are not laboring in vain. Let me study this some more. As the stoned jazz aficionado said when he first heard the early sounds of John Coltrane wafting from a Gtreenwich Village jazz club, "I don't know what that is...but that's IT!"

Selby: thanx for the ISP info....WW:Yeah,16-17 hours....Front: 60 hours ain't much....

DELPHI: What about the rationale for your forecast? Sell what...futures, gold shares, bullion, all of the above? MIKEY: I agree that RYO is not quite a low-cost producer. JTFLICK: Look at a RYO 10Q or 10K SEC filing. RYO has gone up on reported management strength and the encouraging Kemess mine tests. I think it will come back to 2 to 2-1/4 if gold fundamentals don't support it.

Mikey: re- your 12:45 post on Royal Oak. I do not have inside information on Royal Oak, and my most recent annual report is 1994. At that time their official mining cost was 289 US$/oz at the Giant mine, which produced approx 100,000 oz gold that year. Average cost for all mines seem to be about 320 US$/oz, about the current going rate. I have not reviewed any newer annual reports to follow trends, and am the first to admit there may be a difference between the official cost and the real cost. I am putting more weight on what I have heard about the management.
More to Royal Oak's favor, in contrast to American Barrick, is that I do not believe they have forward sold their gold. Please correct me if I am wrong.

All : Inquiring minds want to know.If a gold rally to December is followed by a maket correction in January, and I buy RYO calls to December followed by NASDAQ puts purchased on December 31, what will become of AU? Do I do the unthinkable and go short AU? Do I go long in the summer of '98 all the way to 2000?

MIKE SHELLER: Confirmed December 19, 1983
MIKE@Aussie: All the decimals have shifted one position to the right so that 100 becomes 1000. Am I missing something? Is that the way the XAU is quoted in raw data?

Ted: Purdue whipped Northwestern yesterday. Now, I agree with your criticism last week -- Ball State was sort of a patsie. But, this week, the Boilermarkers beat the defending Big Ten champs. Rose Bowl -- here we come.

DELPHI: I hadn't cheked in for a couple of hours before posting the questions. OK. Lower spot price but, how low and why. Down .50 to 1.00 would not cause me to sell, but down 15.00 would make me panic!! ( And, yes, I know it could happen, but I doubt it ) .

JTFlICK: Go to http://www.stockmaster.com type in RYO, and when RYO comes up, click the little blue box at the top for more information on RYO, when that page comes up, at the bottom select the EDGAR database, when that appears, click on the latest 10Q or 10K ( the "Management Discussion" or "Research" URL's ) .

Mike Sheller: Did you make your comment about 2003-2006 without any technical input? If so this is uncanny, for I have several reasons for believing that we won't have a serious precious metals ( 1980's type ) rally until about this time.
1 ) Kondratiev wave cycles between paper and hard assets: about 54
years. Last peak in 1980 so next bottom should be around 2007.
2 ) James Flanagan's hybrid cycle analysis predicts a bottom in silver
around 2003, and a peak around 2010.
3 ) 2010 should be about the right time for the US baby boomers to shift
from the market to safer assets for retirement. At the same time they
will be looking for their Social security that won't be there.
Perhaps the panic will begin a little earlier.

If you have time I would be very interested on your expounding some more on your discovery.

JTFLICK: Seems like you figured it out. I used monthly numbers. My July, 1986 is .146. We seem to have some slight differences. Here are my lows: Jan, 1979 .132, July 86 .146, Nov 87 .182, Nov 92 .189. Are those close to yours? Remember I have gaps. Can you fax or mail your chart?

SPECIAL BULLETIN: Stock Market Crash Update. I assumed the market would make up its mind by now -- wheather it was going to crash, or resume its bull trend. So far it hasn't. However, it hasn't.

The Dow Transports have a short-term peak 3 trading-days after the ideal turning point on September 16th. The Dow Industrials have a short-term peak at 7997 -- 4 trading days after the ideal turning point of September 16th. The momentum peaked was reached 2 days after the ideal turning point, with the 100 point reversal of Thursday afternoon, on September 18th.

At this point, there is still a better-than-average chance that the 6-week topping pattern is still intact, and hence, the panic-phase of the crash has just started.

Leaving now, but will check in later.

Mike S: What do you think would be the result for SSC if they actually complete the reverse split the board of directors has been planning? This could be as high as 8 to 1.

I personally think that this Asean retort is good for gold.
Ask yourself; who closes down shop in your respective country and opens up plants on the Pacific Rim.
Who pays for the acts of the money hungry, mostly US and European industrialist? Your Son's and Daughters, your country?
With previous prosperity the Aseans became overconfident, they over borrowed and over built.
After this crap hits the fan; who will buy those properties for pennies on the dollar?
The same bums who pumped the money into these countries, the same guys that have been screwing you in the first place - THATS WHO.
Dr. Mahathir is taking a poke at the same power brokers that we have been reluctant to take for ourselves.
God be with Dr. Mahathir and damn the One Worlders and please let gold assume its proper place.

JTFLICK: Here are some other factors. The XAU are senior producers and they usually lead the juniors. We can do the same exercise with the HUI ( unhedged ) producers if we can get the raw data.

Louis Cypher ( @the_oven ) : Ah ha! Now I know who you are! Please note the posts from Yellow Jacket re: RYO. With regard to call options, I can tell you my personal experience. Since I consistently tend to be a bit overly optimistic regarding gold, my experience with gold options has been humbling, to say the least. Playing with options, whose value drops faster than a released balloon, requires that you can predict price trend as well as time trend, in a matter of months. I will freely admit that I will place some money in gold stock options, but only a small protion of it, untill I understand better the mathemathical behavior of their decay.
One can still make alot of money in stocks, or gold mutual funds. What I like about FSAGX is that even a purchase of 50k costs only about $15US round trip if you stay in one month ( regular Fidelity trader like myself ) , and only 0.75% for short-term. I admit the risk of cash per trade is greater than options if there is a crash, but you can't beat the
round trip cost. Options work best on those once-every-few-years chance of a lifetime type of trade.
Please ignore all of the above if you are already an experieced money-making options trader. If so why don't you explain it to me!

TO JTFlick: The only real money RYO has ever made
was when they bought shares of Lac Minerals before their
official takeover attempt. They subsequently sold to
ABX.

If the XAU/gold ratio is viewed in light of the extremely low P/Es throughout the market in general as well as low bond yields, it doesn't seem so bad, n'ext-ce pas???

If you have calls on gold, you better sell it tomorrow morning, later it will be possible to buy the same at lower price.

JTFlick/Donald: Here is XAU/GC but it only goes back to mid 93. My XAU data truncates there. Dammmit. GC is the continuing futures and not spot. ..... Those aren't the colors I started with but they will have to do. Don't know who stole the real colors.

Jack - save your wrath for Dr. Mahathir - he & his ilk ALONE are responsible for the currency mess. Don't play the wronged innocent with me - the Asian Tiger *leaders* policies caused this mess to happen. If they had restrained their lust for power that comes from inflating their currencies ( or monetarily raping their citizens - take your pick, it amounts to the same thing ) Soros et al "greedy captialists" could never have pulled off their attack. Grow up & open your eyes & stop believing *any* politician's words.

Donald: I'd be glad to fax my graphs on the XAU/gold ratio to you. Please send particulars, as they say. Hope you did everything the "real boss" wanted. I still have some chores of my own.

I used XAU closing prices, and London fixing prices for gold, with the exception of the 12/1/92 date, which is World gold.

Date Low
7/25/86 0.17
11/10/87 0.186
- very slowly rising until 12/27/88
12/27/88 0.20
12/5/90 0.21
- very slowly dropping until 12/1/92
12/1/92 0.195
- since 1/94, the XAU/gold ratio has never dropped below 0.275

What would realy be great if we could get our hands on the TSE gold and silver index. Pierre Lassonde has this going back to 1971 in his 1996 "The Gold Book" paperback. I think this Canadian index goes back well before 1971, though the mix of gold stocks undoubtedly changed! Do our Canadian friends have access to what is probably the longest continuous gold stock index in North America?

WAS IT TO STOP KENNEDY'S MONEY REFORM?
Conspiracy theories abound concerning the motives for the killing of US President Kennedy. Most are pretty wild; but this one seems a reasonable proposition, given the vast sums of money involved - not to mention the national and international power stemming from this financial influence.
A threat to such vested interest would certainly not be ignored.... note how nowadays the Central Banking Systems dictate to the governments ( and through them, the public ) what will be, and not the other way around.
**********Democracy and sovereignty, anyone?*******************

The following article appeared in The Final Call, Vol15, No.6, on January 17, 1996 ( USA ) : President Kennedy, the Federal Reserve and Executive Order 11110 by Cedric X.

On June 4, 1963, a little known attempt was made to strip the Federal Reserve Bank of its power to loan money to the government at interest. On that day President John F. Kennedy signed Executive Order No. 11110 that returned to the U.S. government the power to issue currency, without going through the Federal Reserve. Mr. Kennedy's order gave the Treasury the power "to issue silver certificates against any silver bullion, silver, or standard silver dollars in the Treasury." This meant that for every ounce of silver in the U.S. Treasury's vault, the government could introduce new money into circulation. In all, Kennedy brought nearly $4.3 billion in U.S. notes into circulation.
********The ramifications of this bill are enormous.***********

With the stroke of a pen, Mr. Kennedy was on his way to putting the Federal Reserve Bank of New York out of business. If enough of these silver certificats were to come into circulation they would have eliminated the demand for Federal Reserve notes. This is because the silver certificates are backed by silver and the Federal Reserve notes are not backed by anything. Executive Order 11110 could have prevented the national debt from reaching its current level, because it would have given the gevernment the ability to repay its debt without going to the Federal Reserve and being charged interest in order to create the new money. Executive Order 11110 gave the U.S. the ability to create its own money backed by silver.

After Mr. Kennedy was assassinated just five months later, no more silver certificates were issued. The Final Call has learned that the Executive Order was never repealed by any U.S. President through an Executive Order
and is still valid. Why then has no president utilized it? Virtually all of the nearly $6 trillion in debt has been created since 1963, and if a U.S. president had utilized Executive Order 11110 the debt would be nowhere near the current level. Perhaps the assassination of JFK was a warning to future presidents who would think to eliminate the U.S. debt by eliminating the Federal Reserve's control over the creation of money. Mr. Kennedy challenged the government of money by challenging the two most successful vehicles that have ever been used to drive up debt - war and the creation of money by a privately-owned central bank. His efforts to have all troops out of Vietnam by 1965 and Executive Order 11110 would have severely cut into the profits and control of the New York banking establishment. As America's debt reaches unbearable levels and a conflict emerges in Bosnia that will further increase America's debt, one is force to ask,

******** will President Clinton have the courage to consider utilizing Executive Order 11110 and, if so, is he willing to pay the ultimate price for doing so? *******************
http://ness.electricscotland.com/diversity/ossian/ossian13.html

Earl: Thanks for the graph. Is this XAU/ ( gold calls ) ?

JTFLICK: Here is my e.mail address. I will e.mail back my FAX number. Give me about 1 min to set up the fax.

Puetz: Northwestern fer christ sakes.....

JTFlick : I used to go FSAGX but decided returns in AU mutuals wouldn't do. If the Au bull starts I'll be in stox, later to buy the metal itself
in my Fidelity account. Call options only with money I can flush. Smart
guys occupy this site. Power to the Bugs.

TO JTFlick: Here is the dirt on RYO. In 1995 RYO produced 371,151 oz of gold @ $365us, 1996 389,000 oz @ $349 and in 1997 the estimate is 321,000 @ $350. Net earnings for the first 6 months of 1997 is a big negative $20 million on 139M shares outstanding. Management will close 2 mines; one in NWT and the other in Newfoundland. Yes they do edge, however I dont have the figure in front of me. You'll have to go by my word only. Royal Oak has a history of setting optimistic production and cost targets and under achieving both.

Front: Wither and whether the weather. I have the faint recollection that you hang out around Ottawa in which case I assume you will have lots of snow el nino or no el nino. Netrover ( 1-800-247-5529 ) has an Ottawa office and if my memory is correct you will save enough for the snow mobile pass before the winter is over.

Mikey: Your data look reasonable. It is never good just to rely on the annual reports. Mr Cypher, please note Mikey's post.

JTFlick: No, it's XAU/gold X 10 ( -3 ) ...... scale is in hundreds and should be tenths. ..... It's software. Who the hell knows why it scales that way.

JTFLICK: Ain't high-tech wonderful! Got it all, mulling it over, a pox on Mike Sheller, 2006? I will be 72 dammit!

Donald: Got your message - fax machine unplugged. JTF

Kitco Techkies:

Here is the Weekly Gold/XAU Ratio chart updated as of Friday, Sept. 26, l997 compliments of Y.Auger.
http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/Ratio.html

Maybe we will be resolving the gap on the "upside". : )

Mikey--- you appear ultra pessimistic on Royal Oak.
Firstly I challenge you to find one year on a Cahsflow basis, which RYO had a loss.
Secondly their PROJECTED costs from continuing mine operations is presently under $320 without considering Kewmess operations which should come on stream in the 2nd Qtr of 1998
Thirdly, management has made some mistakes in the past, primarily due to the deteriorating ores in the Colomac mines which skewed their cost productions and cost estimates for the last 3 years ( since the start of Colomac ) I challenge you to find a better operated operation than P.Witte's from 1990 to 1993 in obtaining excellent projections, productions from their high cost mines.
Fourthly their current mineable ore reserves are in excess of 9 million oz. as at December 31, 1996 and have added to it ( sorry haven't got the figures handy ) from their acquisition in Fiji ( est. over 3 million oz. )
Fifthly their EXPECTED 1998 production is well over 340,000 gold and gold equivalent at an estimated cost of $240 ( that assuming that Kewmess is brought on stream in Q2 1998 )
Sixth estimated production in 1999 is EXPECTED to be approx. 465,000 gold and gold equivalent at a cost of $240
Seventh assuming that the price of gold averages $350 in 1998 and Peggy takes advantage of hedging programs, that should bring in $375 to $380.
Quickly stated RYO should pull in an estimated Cashlfow earnings in 1998 of about $20million ( cdn ) after interest .
In 1999 said Cashflow should rise to $84 million ( cdn ) or $.60 per share.

With each $10 rise in the price of gold higher than $350, it should impact RYO cashflow by $5million ( cdn )

Don't be too harsh on Peggy. Her 'exaggerations' are no worse off than American Barrick who just wrote off in excess of $500 million Cdn in their 'bad investments' in high cost, low volume producing mines.

I challenge you to find another gold mining company with a NPV oz better than RYO.

I believe that ONE MINE ( COLOMAC ) has tarnished Ms. Witte's reputation. RYO bottom line performance when measured on a Cashflow basis is comparable to TVX, Eco, PGU and Kinross and the prospects in the future are optimistic if you consider:
Kewmess, Pamour extension and Matachewan, Duport ( which should be brought on stream late 1999 ) Copperstone , Arizona,, Fiji, and don't forget drilling has been positive from Colomac ( fully written off ) but potential appear to exists for an underground mine ( partnerhsip? ) and the ace in the whole in my opinion is Asia Minerals, which they own 44% of it.

JTFLICK: Notice how the 21-22 range is the "natural" level for 10 of the past 13 years.

SOYBEAN TRADERS: Some of the first soybeans in this years crop have been harvested in a stretch from Decatur, IL to Logansport, IN. The yields have been way above expectations. My guess is that US soybean production may be as high as 2.9 to 3.0 billion bushels. Last month, the USDA estimated production at a record 2.75 billion bushels.

Ironically, soybeans had a record-low ending-stocks to usage ratio during the previous crop-year. As a result, there is very little "carry" in soybean futures spreads. This situation should change very rapidly -- as traders realize the huge size of the new crop of soybeans.

As the market forces "carry" into the futures spreads, the deferred soybean futures will gain in value relative to the nearby soybean futures.

RECOMMENDATION for a short-term SPREAD speculation: Buy 1 contract of May 1998 soybean futures for every 1 contract of November 1997 soybean futures sold. May soybean futures presently trade at 20 cents/bushel over November bean futures. The spread has potential to widen to a 40-to-50 cent/bushel premium ( of May over November ) .

September 28, 1997
Europe, Asia sanguine after currency turmoil

CHIBA, Japan ( Reuter ) - Asian and European ministers dismissed fears that recent currency turmoil had threatened Asia's long-term potential and agreed Sunday to expand trade and investment ties. But the 26 ministers said further cooperation had to be accompanied by sound economic policies. "I want to underline that all the European governments and representatives are very confident on the potentials of the whole Asian region," said Robert Goebbels, Economy minister for Luxembourg, and current president of the European Union. Trade and economic officials from Asia and Europe ended a two-day meeting Sunday that focused on whether Europeans still had the confidence to invest in Asia following the region's recent currency crisis. The meeting also focused on ways to
promote trade and investment between the two regions.

The group of Asia-Europe Economic Ministers includes Japan, China, South Korea, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Finland, Sweden, Britain and the European commission.
The next conference is to be held in two years in Berlin.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/TRADE-ASIA.html

JTF..Mikey..: Thank you. Have you every watched the CNBC weekly
stock/ world market summary 5:30 Central time? Sometimes interesting.

6PAK: Good Lord, 6Pak, your 16:45 has outdone yourself. Always bringing MEAT to the table, you have outddone yourself with your 16:45. FOOD for thot!

An ominous dumping of their companies' shares by
executives across the spectrum of American business
may be pointing to a disastrous quarterly profit season
ahead.

Vickers Weekly Insider readings of executives' trading
have gone from dreary to dreadful, with its eight-week
sell/buy ratio plunging again
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970929/market/markets3.html

BYRON: Where have you been? We have been talking XAU all day. Be sure to read the back posts. On the Auger chart. Notice how the blue line usually covers more distance than the red line on a move? Ie, the blue line moves a greater percentage than the red?

September 28, 1997
China sees services deal soon - Japanese official

CHIBA, Japan ( Reuter ) - China expects an agreement on trade in services soon with Japan and the United States, boosting its bid to join the World Trade Organization, a Japanese trade official said over the weekend.
China's Minister of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Wu Yi told Japan's Trade Minister Mitsuo Horiuchi ahead of a meeting of economic ministers that she expected an agreement by the time Chinese Premier Li Peng visited counterpart Ryutaro Hashimoto in November, the trade ministry official told reporters Saturday. China is addressing the further opening up of its services sector in talks with Japan and the United States. The official also quoted Wu as saying China was eager to join the WTO and that entry into the body would help China on its
path of economic and market reforms.

According to the official, Wu jokingly told Horiuchi of an old Chinese tale about a small monkey that played instead of respecting God. If China continued to be isolated by the world, China could not help but just play like the monkey, the official quoted Wu as saying.

The gold situation couldn't be more bullish than it is now. There has been an unusually long period of bearishness toward the precious-yellow. Using contrary opinion, that's bullish. There is an unusually large short position among speculators in the futures market -- creating a large potential buying demand.

There is pent-up demand to repurchase gold in the physical markets in the form the hedge-funds that have used gold-loans to raise operating funds. The booming stock market has attracted investor buying-interest away from gold. When stocks crash ( soon ) , investor interest will return to gold.

The gold-lease rate has risen to the 2-to-4% range during the past few weeks, indicating that a shortage is developing in the cash market for gold. The uptrend in gold prices during the past few days indicates that the "barberous relic" may be ready for a resurrection to its former glory.

TO Goldbug99:

You're right ( cashflow always positive ) . You've listed 2 Ontario
projects. Pamour and Matachewan. I believe these 2 projects, as we exchange keystrokes, have been delayed indefinitely due to the low
gold price and to conserve cash for KEMESS. I hope these future
estimates of yours come true. God help Ms. Witte if gold takes a
dive below $300us. If all future estimates would come true, as
in the case of RYO, we'd all be rich. I wouldn't even buy shares
of RYO if they dipped below a buck ( currently $3.45 ( cdn ) ) .Sorry.

JTF/ Mikey : Forgot to say Saturdays and Sundays.

Donald,JTFlick: I'm at the mercy of the library's hours.: ) Just scrolled back and did noticed the xau postings. Have not yet absorbed ( thru my cold ) . JTFlick: there is a TSE Gold and Silver Index on the Wall Street City site. But I do not have my charts today at the library. Might have to hunt around for it. Got to go. To nice a day ( 98 degrees ) to be spending in the library on Sunday afternoon. Bye.

All: E-Mail to CNBC asking if Pacific Rim currency problems would
foster a flight to gold. Jimmy Rogers ( paraphrasing ) already has to some
extent...dollar still strong...if dollar falters people will go to hard
currency eg. gold...better investments oil,wool,lead ( he's big on lead )
Tune in now for their comments on GB going into EU.

Mikey---1997 production has been fully hedged ( 312,000 ) oz at $395.
They have sold forward in excess of 30,000 lbs copper expected in 1998 from Kemess at around $1.00 ( est cost in the $.50 range )
The Pamour extension and Matachewan were delayed to conserve cash. However Cashflow from Kemess in 1998 and 1999 should bring these two projects on stream ( late 1999 ) . I believe the mill from Hope Brooke is being transferred to Matachewan.
It appears that several brokerage houses ( Midland , DS ) have put out a buy out and Solomon has it as a hold.
If we get a $10 pop in gold during the next 6 months RYO value will be in the $5-7 cdn. ( I believe Peggy in the last conference call with analsysts on August 6th, said she would be placing 5 year hedging program ) .
Stay tuned.
Gold will 'pop' more than $10 from the present levels in the next 6 months. Or isn't it?

What's your forecast on gold prices within the next 6 months?

But now, with the threat of an El Nino-induced drought,
the Australian wheat market is seriously running its own
race.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970929/market/markets8.html

Seen some discussion about inflation vs. true inflation. Seems to me like the average family is seeing much higher inflation than the Govt. numbers indicate. For our family, we've seen auto prices climb around 50% in the past 8 years, home prices have climbed about 30% in our area in 2 years, energy costs have risen at least 20% between gas and home utilities, food has also risen about 15 to 20%, social security & medicare tax ceilings get raised every year, so I'm trying to understand this 2 to 3% a year Govt. number?

...there goes the 'budget surplus'....
Deutsche Morgan Grenfell's chief economist, Dr Ed
Yardeni, recently called on the President of the United
States and the Congress "to make fixing Y2K and
preparing for any disruptions the nation's top priority".
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970929/feature/feature1.html

TO Goldbug99
Let me see, I did a post earlier today concerning
MY prediction of gold. Look back at earlier posts.
if u cant find it, let me know.

Goldbug99

Date: Sun Sep 28 1997 14:34
Mikey ( @home ) ID#347332:
TO:Louis Cypher.

GOLD-EAGLE beams MONTHLY SPOTLIGHT on exemplary market commentary to recognize analysts. To see biographical sketch of those spotlighted & awarded studies, CLICK HALL OF FAME plaque:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html

Thanks. I had missed it. Now I understand your RYO 'pessimism'.
Good luck on your 'short' position.

TO Goldbug99:
Of course this is only MY prediction. But I guess my guess is as
good as anyone's guess. No one can predict the
future ( gold,oil,lumber...etc ) . There are 60,000 economists in USofA
contradicting each other everyday. Why do you think they still all
have a job?

Girds ESSAY / By WILLIAM SAFIRE
September 28, 1997


Iran Girds For War

WASHINGTON -- In the 80's, Israel's Mossad warned of nuclear weaponry being developed secretly by Saddam Hussein. The C.I.A. disagreed;
"not for 10 years" was its complacent judgment, which warped Bush Administration policy. Now everyone admits that Mossad had it right.

One year ago, Israel shared with our Defense Intelligence Agency Mossad's evidence and conclusions about a new proliferation threat from a
supporter of terrorism.

We already knew that Iran was developing nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. What we did not know was this: "Massive Russian assistance
and close cooperation with Iran are enabling the Iranian regime to develop independent capabilities to produce medium-range ballistic missile systems
within a very short time."

Every nation in the Near East uses a simple test to determine Iran's military intentions: the range of the missiles it seeks to build. As long as that range
stayed short of 700 miles, Saudis, Turks and Israelis did not become unduly alarmed. But technical and humint sources revealed Shahab-3 and -4,
missiles ranging up to 1,240 miles and threatening many capitals ( not to mention 20,000 U.S. military personnel in the vicinity ) . Thus did Iran signal
aggressive intentions.

Early this year, mindful of past complacency, our D.I.A. confirmed the Mossad's information. It did not dispute the prediction that mid-range missiles
were within 18 months to two years of production inside Iran. And it agreed that in many ways, Russians under loose Moscow control were making
the new threat possible.

Boris Yeltsin, at the June G-8 meeting in Denver, denied all. Because President Clinton did not want to use space aid or I.M.F. support for coercion,
he could only warn that Congress would cut back aid if Moscow persisted in its Teheran adventure.

Israel then went public. Bill Gertz of The Washington Times wrote an exclusive series this month detailing some of the Mossad's findings corroborated
by U.S. intelligence. Congress is now awake to Russia's breach of its arms proliferation agreement, despite our State Department's admonition to
Israel not to take its case there.

In Moscow last week, Vice President Gore had to publicly remind Prime Minister Chernomyrdin about Iran's "vigorous" nuclear missile buildup.

Privately the Russians reminded the Americans that they had fired Aleksandr Kotelkin last month as head of the nation's arms export agency,
Rosvooruzhenie, identified by Western agencies as riddled with corruption in the transfer of missile technology.

Gore thinks the threat is being countered by an investigating team headed by our diplomat Frank Wisner and their space agency head, Yuri Koptev.

The trouble is that Koptev -- whose control over Russia's space technology is symbolized by the condition of the Mir space station -- is suspected of
being part of the problem.

Russian scientists are desperate for money, which Iran offers under the table. The trick for Koptev would be to keep America's financial support while
turning a blind eye to the money seeping up from Teheran.

In addition to the secret missile help, hundreds of Russian scientists are openly in Iran building its Bushehr "civilian" reactor. But Iran sits on a sea of
cheap oil energy; its only reason for a nuclear reactor is to produce plutonium isotopes for bombs.

Chernomyrdin would not budge on his "commitment" to a nuclear Iran, and as a sop to Congress offered to let the U.S. see the new plant; the rebuffed
Gore replied dryly, "joint monitoring is the least of our concerns."

Set aside differences about West Bank dealings that dominate the headlines. We see developing a fundamental split in the strategic views of Israel and
the Clinton Administration over matters affecting national survival.

Israel's Netanyahu views Iran, with its inflammatory rhetoric now backed up with its cool decision to build missiles with warheads that could incinerate
Tel Aviv, as Israel's gravest threat.

America's Clinton views our relationship with Russia, with its nuclear capacity and internal instability and democratic potential, as our top priority;
accordingly, he tolerates Russia's open and secret support of Iran's bid for nuclear missile coverage of Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

America sometimes must act unilaterally and trust that its allies will understand. Same with Israel. Before Iran's invitation to pre-empt grows more
blatant, Mr. Gore should sit down with Mr. Clinton to reassess his Russian priority.

Yes, I also found the information about Kennedy and the Federal Reserve
action, of considerable interest.

Maybe you or others can help ? I have searched the net, looking for any
and all information, regarding the mentioned **" Federal Reserve and
Executive order 11110"** I can find nothing regarding such an order. Can there be such an order ? Have others knowledge of this?

The question for you and others. Is it possible that such exists, and how
can it be accessed.???? This could be a big deal, eh! Take care.

September 28, 1997
With U.S. economy in top shape, Fed to stand pat

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - With the economy in excellent health, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at its meeting Tuesday but may consider raising rates later this year if inflation looks set to rise.
The central bank's main worry is that tight labor markets may lead to wage increases that could eventually push up inflation. Fed officials have warned that they are monitoring the situation carefully. But recent reports show the economy growing strongly with remarkably low inflation and do not justify taking action now, analysts said.

"If you look at the landscape right now, it is inconceivable that the economy needs higher rates," said economist James Glassman of Chase Securities Inc. in New York. "This is like the Holy Grail for the economy. I don't think we've ever been closer to it."Fed policy-makers are to meet Tuesday morning for their periodic review of interest rates and the economy.

Coincidentally, also Tuesday, President Clinton's nominees to fill the vacant seats, Edward Gramlich and Roger Ferguson, will appear at a Senate committee hearing on their nomination. Analysts expect the candidates may be confirmed before the Fed's next meeting on Nov. 12. In any case, the nominees' views are not expected to significantly alter Fed policy, the analysts said.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/ECONOMY.html

Yellow Jacket: Nawwww. Not true. The rumor that I have been at K-Mart buying shoe-polish is simply untrue. I deny any knowledge of such activity. It's just part of the disinformation campaign going on here at Kitco.

All : I got burned with the Hunt's silver play in 1979. I can't believe
I'm thinking of silver again. Can anyone devise a gold/ silver/ lead
( all those batteries in China ) strategy for our retirement circa
2000? Who mines lead anyway? Are there lead futures?

Senator Blutarsky ( the soon-to-be very, very, wealthy ) : Senator, I understand you are heavily invested in gold. When gold prices break out to the upside ( and then skyrocket after that ) , your wealth will double, triple, and then quadruple.

At that point, you may be in a position to enlarge your harem to match Billy Boy's or maybe even Teddy's. I envy you.

September 28, 1997
In time of angst, Israel's 50th birthday bash is fizzling

TEL AVIV ( AP ) - The Jewish year 5758 was going to be one long party, marking a century since the founding of the Zionist movement and 50 years
since the tumultuous, exhilarating establishment of Israel. Instead, plans for a year-long commemoration are falling apart, undermined by a nationwide funk, a deepening economic crisis and worsening social divisions.

The $70 million US initially earmarked for events marking Israel's golden
anniversary has been slashed to $14 million. And in the past three weeks, the key officials involved in the celebrations all resigned from the planning committee. First came Tourism Minister Moshe Katsav, the celebrations' czar; then retired general Yossi Peled, the committee head; and finally chief producer Haim Slotsky.

They cited "professional disagreements," which seemed to boil down to
one key problem: The Iranian-born Katsav was far more sympathetic than
his European-descended colleagues to charges that the celebration plans
promoted an excessively Western image of the Jewish state.

"There is a feeling that the country is weaker than in the past. There is
disappointment and fear," he said.
http://www.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Divided-at-50.html

"Social Security is an outright ripoff."
http://www.usnews.com:80/usnews/issue/971006/6glass.htm

You been drinking son??

NOMERCY -- Your post, "INSIDER SELLING", this P.M. underscores more
than many may realize. Any research into recent insider selling of composites of DOW or MONEY 30 will show a dramatic dumping of shares
by DIRECTORS! Board of directors do not usually receive stock options.
Their selling is not part of any quick taking of option profits. Many,
many, are selling individual holdings of a million shares or more. The
good news -- XAU index stocks and precious metals mining stocks in
general are showing LOW selling volume by insiders.

Steve: You know what that means...TOGA! TOGA!

dec.gold down .70

TED: Ve haf vayz uff knoving yur veraboutz.
http://washingtonpost.com:80/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-09/27/046l-092797-idx.html

Tortfeasor: There is a viscous rumor circulating that you failed to graduated from joke-school. Could this be true? Or is it just part of the disinformation campaign here at Kitco?

Tianamen Square, Malaysian style. Malaysian hero stands in front of a tank.
http://www.businessweek.com:80/1997/40/b3547162.htm

6pk Re:19:27 The first place I saw mention of this executive order of Kennedy's was in the Oracle of ALberta article on Gold Eagle "On the Side of Golden Angels". Perhaps this author could supply the info you request if you email him, I suppose this could be done through Gold Eagle. I thought it was quite a Bombshell myself.

Senator Blutarsky: Put me on your invitation-list of esteemed guests at your next taxpayer-financed get-together.

TO L. Cypher
Sorry I dont watch CNBC on saturdays or sundays.

READ THIS:

The Stock Market Warning Page!
Long Wave Economics Page

Welcome a sailboat called the Magic Elf. When we're not
sailing, we're about the economy ( or walking the dog! ) .
Don't confuse the boat with the music group ( doing
jazz/rock ) called Magic Elf. Their site includes .wav files of the CD due
out in a month or two. Sounds pretty good, too.



The Stock Market Comments

UPDATE ( 9/4/97 ) Start looking for a shock which will
drive the markets down. Trade barriers going up, a major
conflict in the world, a further meltdown of the curries in
Asia...anything which will cause an already wildly
oscillating market to topple over.

UDATE ( 7/8/97 ) Well, I still see no reason to back off on the prediction that the weekly
close of the Dow should peak around 8367 at the end of August, although I was worried
when the market tubed 150 points a couple of Monday's back.

UPDATE ( 6/13/97 ) Last prediction was right on - and the market obediently ran up to new
highs. It should keep going till about the first week of August.

UPDATE ( 5/20/97 ) Well, the Fed looked at consumer demand, up a modest 1.9 percent
annual rate in the first quarter compared with previous year and figured ( rightly ) that
inflation is not a big threat - at least for now. So, the next stop should be 8,200+ after a
couple of weeks of wandering before momentum of the bull market builds up again.

UPDATE ( 5/15/97 ) Everything happens as forecast so far: The producer prices are falling
as one would expect at the end of the greatest economic expansions in history and this will
be one of the pressures on the Fed not to raise interest rates next week. Guessing the
outcome of the Fed meeting is always a crap shoot, but I hope they will take a cautious
wait and see attitude and not move rates this time. Unfortunately, history says they will
raise rates and that will send the market back down to the 6500 level for the next two
weeks. Either way, the market should climb to over 8,000 before the major correction
begins after peaking in the 8,200-8,400 range late this summer.

PREDICTION: ( 4/1/97 ) : I believe, based on the work I've done, that the market will make
a real top of about 8400 between late June and mid August, most likely early August, then
weaken and head south in the September/October time frame.
The basis of my forecast is this: Take the historical Dow from 1919 to 1933 and have
overlaid the run up in the Dow since 1986.
While the numbers aren't precisely the same ( when you multiply the 20's Dow by about 22
which lines up the first 2/3'rds of the numbers ) , they are close enough that you can see the
1987 hiccup in the market as analogous to the short break in the market in 1920-21. If my
model is correct, we will see:
* Several more weeks of 100-200 point weekly gains, interspersed with quite
"consolidation weeks"...
* More people getting into stocks and telling more stories about how much money they
have made, at least "on paper".
* Positive net inflows of funds continuing strong through early summer.
* A major crisis of global portions develop quickly in September/October. This will be the
"trigger effect" event which will later be blamed for the market falling apart.
In the meantime, plenty of money is to be made with calls now and switching to puts in
early August. The recent returns ( March & April ) have been fine with IBM.SF and
IBM.GK options ( the 130 puts and the 155 calls ) IBM will keep going up.
If you like economics and stock market forecasting, I'd appreciate your view. Send it
along via e-mail. I pay attention to forecasts that make money....like my own....



If you don't care to send mail, or landed here by accident, and are wondering what a
"Magic Elf" is...

Let's talk sailing!

The Magic Elf is a 40 foot long, 1984 Hunter
sailboat that lives at Shilshole Bay Marina
in Seattle, WA, USA. The boat name Magic
Elf predates the music group's use of the
name by about 4 years. If you would like to
see what the current version of the boat
looks like, visit Hunter Marine's home
pagebut remember, the cheapest way to boat
is go out on someone else's boat. What the
Port of Seattle charges for moorage
approaches the medical and legal professions! ( no, this is NOT a good thing! )
That's Judy at the helm just north of Alki Point ( city in the background ) on one of those
stormy spring days.
But, enough about me. Thanks for dropping by ( accidentally or otherwise ) . Have a
wonderful day!

Fair Winds,
George Ure



Magic Elf's Searching Section

While you're surfin', if you see anything related to long wave economic theory
( Kondratieff wave studies ) , or sailing faster, send us a bookmark!



Yahoo!
Various lists of varous things
Altavista ( Bill Gate's reportedly likes this one... )

Entertainment? Did you say ENTERTAINMENT?

You might think that living on a sailboat would keep us busy all the time. Well, for the
most part, it does. But now and then, between bouts of work, the Wednesday night BBQ's
on N Dock ( at Shilshole ) and academic pursuits, the computer gets used for ( arghh! )
surfing. Among our present interests...



RealAudio news, music, etc
...flicks & reviews...
Some net radio stations ( sound card required! )
( tell me you have a sound card... )
Read the L.A. Times ( but no comics! )
TV Guide
See if Microsoft has broken something or fixed something...

Send e-mail to S/V Magic Elf ( George Ure )



Anyone...and I mean anyone...can write HTML!

Visit my alma mater: California Pacific University

Or, drop by my office: Cruising Equipment Company

We have now warned people about the precipitous position of
the market.

\

6pak: The issue of executive order 11110 came up on this forum last winter. Again, as a part of the inexorable JFK thingy. As I recall, the order was, reportedly, rescinded by LBJ soon after he took the imperial throne.

Mag 6 earthquake today latest in a series of Indonesian disasters.
http://www.abcnews.com:80/sections/world/indonesiaquake927/index.html

...

To Goldbug99 ( RYO ) M Whitless going to hedge production for 5 years? Geez, thats worse than what Bema is doing to their shareholders i.e. 1997 planned production at Refugio 100% hedged at US$386. per oz. and 85% hedged in 1998 and 1999 at US$380.

Kuwait oil workers to widen strike


Copyright  1997 Nando.net
Copyright  1997 Reuter Information Service

KUWAIT ( September 28, 1997 11:09 a.m. EDT http://www.nando.net ) - A
Kuwaiti workers union on Sunday called for a gradual widening of an oil
strike from Kuwait's leading Mina al-Ahmadi oil and products export
terminal to all other refineries and export terminals.

"We will not stop the strike at Ahamdi," union secretary Salah al-Ali told
Reuters. "We are widening it gradually every 48 hours to involve other
units."

The union also issued a statement calling for "a full, gradual strike at all
operation units."

The statement did not say what steps would be taken or which units would
be affected by the next strike moves but union sources told Reuters that
crude and products exports at the 255,000-barrel-per-day Mina Abdullah
refinery could be the next target.

Union officials said their statement was issued before they were aware of a
statement by the Kuwaiti government which earlier on Sunday discussed
the strike by some 90 workers at Ahamdi launched on Saturday morning.

The government stresses "its rejection of strikes and threatening to strike
and that there are no negotiations in the shadow of a strike," the statement
said.

The union has not yet responded to the cabinet statement. The striking
workers are demanding the restoration of some benefits which had been
cut, and improved career development and advancement opportunities.



...an excerpt from a story in Sundays WP...Dipsters take note!
" He cites a Merrill Lynch report in
1967 on the computer industry. "They said computers had a
great future, and they were 100 percent right. . . . Then they
listed 25 companies that were leaders and potential leaders in the
area. Only one of them is a dominant player today: IBM."

TOCOM opening call.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/28/z0000_2.html

JTFLICK: October, 1987. Had you been short the XAU, ( at my suggested 30 point ) and long the metal, you would have had a very nice month.

Donald,

I've been following the comments about how to measure inflation. To my mind the Economist's tracking of the price of a Big Mac is not a bad way. My question to you, as the Kitco Super Sleuth, is do you think you could track down the annual price of a Big Mac for the last ten years? It is the best handle on "true inflation" that I can think of. I would be fascinated.

September 28, 1997
Swiss endorse state distribution of heroin
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Swiss-Heroin-Vote.html

( Smithy: Is that to eat here or to go? ( dated 2/26/97 ) )
There seems to be a certain amount of comfort with the yen's current rate, although many
investment banks here forecast further weakening of the yen this year. The 120 range "is very, very
positive for Japan, and will help a lot in Japan's recovery," says Toyoharu Tsutsui, managing
director of Capital Partners, a Tokyo-based financial consulting firm.

By one measure, the yen/dollar rate is at a happy equilibrium. At 122 yen to the dollar, the price in
Japan of a McDonald's Big Mac sandwich - a standard The Economist magazine has popularized
- is $2.29.

That's just about what the same burger costs in the US: $2.36.

Donald, re Big Mac standard:

As long as we are consistent I'm not sure it matters. How about "to eat here"?

Smithy & "Mac"Donald: If anything UNIVERSALLY identifies the USA to the rest of the world from Bern to Buenos Aires to Beirut to Bahrain to Beijing, it is precisely the Big Mac! To determine the inflation rate in its price during the last 10 years might EVEN bring down a government. We could call it the "Big Mac coup d'etat." There would be "ground carnage" everywhere, katchup flowing in the streets, and Grandmas everywhere screaming in angst, "WHERE'S THE BEEF?!" ( grin thingy )

Smithy - yesssss, you are close to the black heart of inflation: fast food. More of us than will admit ingest enourmous quantities of fast food: call it Boston Market, MacDonalds, Taco Hell, La Madelines, etc. - those prices reveal the face of inflation: I've been waiting for the price of a "small" drink to go over $1 - instead the restaurant chains are simply dropping the title "small" and simply listing drinks by price. Clever. A *REAL* CPI would omit computers, and other red herring "deflators" ( we can all live without those things ) and focus on the the things we have to buy every day & week. Instead we live in a new age of total media control - a credulous, emotionally pliable, dumbed-down populace - and constant reality control ( aka brainwashing ) . Want to know what it was like to live in the Roman Empire toward the end? Look around you ...

It was futile to utter the following words 2,000 years ago, and it is still futile - we are headed for the abyss:

"The budget should be balanced, the treasury should be refilled, and the public debt should be reduced. The arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled. And the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed, lest we become bankrupt."

Cicero, 63 B.C.

Donald: You've been busy while I've been out fixing "old reliable", my Blazer. But with two sets of chains I can drive on ice.
The earthquake in Indonesia is interesting -- disasters seem to be concentrated in SE Asia. I have no proof of this, but the ElNino phenomenon may be due to undersea volcanic vent activity around the ring of fire. How else could one have a 5 degree or more local rise in T. If so, techtonic activity may be increased also. I wonder why so much activity in that part of the world, and not here.
Glad you were able to use the graphs I sent you. That was not graphically enhanced as I found out later.

TO vronsky:

Good post

Thanks for the information. Interesting, that this information is put on
the net at a site in Scotland. I expect that there is depth to this
executive order. I suggest, the 11110 order exists. Is it possible for
a confirmation of this being put aside ( rescinded ) by LBJ. Can a member of your government provide this information. Like could a person ask an elected official to say yes, order 11110 was signed, and yes, LBJ put this order aside ( rescinded ) ? I expect we will hear much more about
order 11110. If there are still good news reporters, that have not been
killed, or bought off, we can hope, eh!

Vronsky: How about the Big Mac price for determining PPP? Much quicker way of determining relative standards of living!!!

Ten years of the Big Mac Index ( I only post this because they have golden, not paper, arches )
http://www.econ.umn.edu/~cswan/class/oct16/BigMac.html

Donald

Re Big Mac Index

Holy cow! That was quick! The article gives a comparison across currencies but not in the U.S. over time. Any clues. . . ?

Smithy: I should have noted that the date on the article is October 16, 1996. There must be a 1997 study out any day now. Remind me if I don't remember myself.

Smithy: When your order fast food at Kitco you get FAST food. Whats the beef? ( grin thing ) I'll keep looking.

Smithy, Vronsky: Donald has been practicing new extrasensory methods, with Mike Sheller's help. Convincing, isn't it?

ALL INTERESTED IN EL NIO: There was a fascinating article in today's LA Times all about El Nio and how NOBODY really knows what effects it might have. Climatologists are pretty sure of the effects near the equatorial ocean water that constitutes the el Nio phenomena itself, but the farther North or South one travels from it the less certain they are of what weather patterns will develop. While it LOOKS a lot like the big one that developed in 82-83, the results could just as easily be the opposite: drought where there was rain, and rain where there was drought. John Christy, a climatologist at the U of Alabama in Huntsvillw - who specializes in satellite tracking of El Nio said, "If nothing really bad happesn this year, it will be a bad secne for a lot of climate scientists."
Meantime, the people benefiting from it right now are 1 ) the researchers who can command lots of funding due to the fear that is running wild and 2 ) the politicians who can extort disaster relief money before anything happens. For them, it's a perfect opportunity since they can drum up massive pre-emptive spending for disasters that may or may not materialize. If the disaster comes, they will crow about how they got everyone prepared, and if if doesn't, then all who benefitted from the money will be happy for having gotten it anyway. BTW, last week Peru borrowed $250 million and Ecuador $180 million from the World Bank for pre-emptive disaser relief. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for preparedness, ( fortunately I fixed my roof last year ) but when our local Senator Barbara Boxer and her ilk go around urging everyone to buy flood insurnace at inflated prices, etc. I get a bit suspicious. The bottom line, don't rush out and purchase too many far out agri. options - at least not until the weather patterns manifest themselves clearly.

SMITHY: That is the only thing there. It is something the Economist puts out but they did reference others who have followed through with independent work. On the U.S. inflation rate. When the next one is published we can just calculate the difference in the 1996 Big Mac price vs 1997. No? Other than that we would need all ten surveys. The site is not offering those.

Hey! Anyone notice that EBN Gold is down 449.40?

To all: Re The most recent Red Barron session on the LBMA mystery, complements of Vronsky.
My impression is that if the high volume on the LBMA is accurate ( probably not real gold trading,but rather derivative trading ) , this may be a prelude to the entry of a new e-gold currency. How interesting that our A Greenspan just recently contributed a paper in a collection of papers on electronic currencies. As you may recall recall, I also mentioned that the CEPR, and the NBER recently cosponsored a symposium, much or it focusing on the return to the gold standard. The location was Univ of Warwick, July, 1990. This would all fit together if Britain announced it wished to join the ECU.
Why has gold gone down, and the dollar up? What better way to convince others of the power of your new currency to manipulate the market, as well as pave the way to launching the ECU?
I hope this will stimulate some discussion. We may know fairly soon whether the UK will be joining the ECU, and the truth of the above.

JTF Donald Big Mac more than a pinch of mysticism about tonight, did that long-dead Babylonian investment advisor CheChops find someone to Channel here?
Spud Master - inspired speach.:= )

Indonesian fires likely to raise inflation rate by 3% and cut growth rate by 2%.
http://www.irish-times.com:80/irish-times/paper/1997/0927/for5.html

Donald: re- your 21:02 comment on the peak of the XAU/gold ratio on October, 1987. I see the following peaks in the graphs I sent you:
Approx Date XAU/gold ratio
Sept 27, 1987 0.33
Jan 20, 1990 0.325
Jan 10, 1994 0.375
Jan-Mar 1996 0.375

I think I got all the peaks in the XAU/gold ratio. It does seem that one might be able to choose a "sell" threshold, say 0.32, with some confidence. Comments?

Strad Master: Dateline tonight did a feature on El Nio and one researcher boldly predicted several weather pattern changes for the US. These included wetter than normal for the west and southwest, warmer for the midwest and northeast, and a much reduced threat of hurricanes for the southeast. I deduced from this a lighter than normal demand for heating oil and natural gas. That is of course assuming normal delivery of oil. On the other hand, there is the worsening situation vis-a-vis Turkey and Iraq plus the Kuwaiti oil workers strike and the increasing belligerence of Iran all of which suggest possible interruptions of supply. Weather or war? Place your bets...

JTFLICK: Ok for those who are certain to recover in time for 2006. Guys my age will be comfy with .30. Here is a site you might like. Perils of a Restless Planet.
http://www.newscientist.com:80/ns/970927/review.html

To all: I forgot to repeat the message -- The 1990 Economic Symposium at the University of Warwick -- One of the papers about returning to the gold standard also mentioned the value of complete secrecy. Intriguing isn't it? Hard to keep everything a secret in Academic circles, it seems. I think we wil know the truth soon.

AURATOR: We had a great day today. Be sure to read back on the posts. Now that the relief shift is here I am off for zzzzzzz's ( zedzedzedzed's for you Canadians )

Good night all: The earth has turned 3/4 of the way around since I got up.

Strad Master -- I knew if I waited long enough,... they would 'pay' me to take that worthless yellow stuff off of their hands! :- ) )

All
Sleep tight our Western Hemisphere friends .. there is much to scroll through, much to look for..a Delphic oracle too..
Nick any more crooked aussie politicians caught over week-end with hands in tills?...

I see we're having fun with the NDX on the Globex tonight and that spot gold is up $0.50. Maybe there's hope yet for this dead horse?

The Japanese Nikkei Stock Index is DOWN 1.2% at 17778. Is it not somehere in this area that a SLEW of Nippon Banks should start going belly-up, becuse their REAL-ESTATE BUBBLE was collaterolized with stock market shares??? Does anyone know that Flash-Point number? 17500? 17000? Whatever it is, "taint fer down dah road!" WHERE'S OLD ORACLE -whenna a guy needs em????

Check out EBN Spot Gold Price; -499.25

Earl, JTFlick, Donald - Here is another site that maintains the XAU/Gold ratio. http://goldsheet.simplenet.com/ratio.gif

DONALD: It may not be a good idea to use the XAU/Spotgold ratio to evaluate the state of the market. While the gold price in $US is always representing the same thing ( one ounce of gold ) , the XAU is never representing the same thing. The XAU is a group of companies that hold gold reserves. These reserves grow with time. So should the total market cap of the companies in the XAU and therefore the XAU.

Take Barrick Gold, XAU's main component and look how its value changed over the years http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/goldbug425.html
I conclude that the current XAU is as cheap as it was at it low in 1993. Still, the ratio ( Gold/XAU ) was 4.5+ back then while it is 3.2 now...
Looks like there is a trend here... The next low ( several years down the road ) is likely to be closer to 1.

IT's a game for fools and friendlies alike,isn't it.What it isn't,and
what maybe could be,are only divergents of what they should be.It's like
picking up a paper cup and putting water in it,well knowing the cup can
only hold the water for so long before deteriorating to mush.

Panda.Also note that silver is currently up in H.K. to 4.85.Usually
this might not be so exciting except that at this particular level,
as Mike Sheller pointed out earlier,it's testing a long term downtrend
line...hmmm

The Major. So True, or like walking a Tight-rope. It is reasonable to believe a man may walk a tight rope for a few minutes, even a few hours, but say a few days or weeks and the belief becomes untenable, moronic.

FWIW My guess is for visible signs in the media of racing to plug the holes in the Dykes of the IMF..;- )

Been a busy day at Mammoth Lakes, CA. today.. Many small quakes.. One
bunch of 12 during a 13 minute period.. may shake some gold fillings loose...;~}

CC: XAU/GC: A point well taken. It may well settle at 1 or better at some future date. I think the only information to be drawn currently is that has operated in the range of 2.0 to 3.66 for some years and yields some correlation to entry risk vis a vis gold stocks. .... A major problem with a ratio or other derivative quantity that has GC as one component, is the limited data available for gold as freely traded commodity. We are probably still seeing reflected waves, albeit of smaller amplitude, emenating from the turmoil of gold's release from bondage in the '70s. All of which makes gold's recent historical data somewhat suspect for predictive purposes. IMO. ...... but its all we have.