Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 00:09 - ID#227238)
George Cole: In light or your desire to see the XAU carry the early portion of the next move and given today's excellent effort by Donald and JTFlick on the XAU/GC ratio, would you agree that it's now time for bullion to pick up the slack and move that ratio back down to something a little more risk free? .... Further, that it may be dangerous to have stocks advance much further without a concomittant move in the price of bullion?? ...... Judged purely on the basis of this one indicator, of course.

Who Cares
(Mon Sep 29 1997 00:10 - ID#244209)

Points about Nikkei -

The period following the Nikkei crash in '90 clearly shows
that a minimum point was established beyond which the
Nikkei was not allowed to drop.

I strongly suspect that a similar point will appear in the
months ahead.

And at what point are the Japanese banks required to
acknowledge their losses, assuming the Nikkei drops to

The Major
(Mon Sep 29 1997 00:27 - ID#372425)
gold ( gold ) n. [[ME OE, akin to Ger gold , ON goll IE base ghel- , to shine, gleam GLOW, YELLOW]] 1 a heavy, yellow, inert, metallic chemical element with a high degree of ductility and malleability: it is a precious metal and is used in the manufacture of coins, jewelry, alloys, etc.: symbol, Au at. wt., 196.967; at. no., 79; sp. gr., 18.88; melt. pt., 1,064.4 C; boil. pt., 3,080 C 2 a ) gold coin b ) money; riches; wealth 3 the bright yellow color of gold 4 something regarded as having the value, brilliance, etc. of gold [a voice of pure gold ] 5 short for GOLD MEDAL adj. 1 of, made of, like, or plated with gold 2 having the color of gold 3 secured by or redeemable in gold; based on gold 4 [[after the gold-plated copy awarded to the performer ( s ) ]] designating a record, tape, disc, video, etc. which has registered sales of a specified number, as one million, or value, as $500,000: gold reflects a lesser number or value than platinum


But by defitition now..we should reconsider.............

That is to Wall Street's version.......

I should hold a ' DOW " Visa Card.....

Or A..." DOW " Membership At The Golf Club....

Or...If My Children Or I Win A Medal...It Should Be .." A Russel..A Nasdaq...Or A DOW Medal ".......

Johnny Angel
(Mon Sep 29 1997 00:43 - ID#24164)
For Mr Cypher

I'm looking for work. Can I meet you for lunch. We can have hard
boiled eggs.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 01:01 - ID#255284)
hard-boiled eggs, a cup of Tea and the Times...
Euro-skeptik ratios:

A more positive UK attitude could alleviate concerns about whether a single currency is sustainable. A survey published today shows that two thirds of UK investors believe it is not, even though there is universal belief that the euro will be launched on schedule in 1999.
Globally, 23 per cent of investors are sceptical about the survival of the single currency.
According to the survey by Paribas, the French bank, sceptical investors believe the euro is most likely to collapse after 2002. A large majority of the Emu sceptics are based in the UK or US.

Cyb Jeddak
(Mon Sep 29 1997 01:27 - ID#287193)
Individual investors in mutual funds are showing a tendency to pull back when the DOW disappoints. Anticipate that a 10 % correction would turn into a decline of a higher magnitude. Though the long term trend is up, investors are looking for any reason to sell & take profits. Just awaiting a big enough reason.

The Major
(Mon Sep 29 1997 01:27 - ID#372425)
Hey Ted.How's The Fishin...............

(Mon Sep 29 1997 01:39 - ID#306275)
Donald et al, Good coments re: XAU/GC ratio. Any comments on the relationship between the spread on forward sales and the XAU/GC ratio?

Re: Selloff
FOMC in-action on Tuesday will be seen as the last good news we'll get from the fed, they'll look for a nice pop to sell into and there won't even be a blip. Others may think the fed is behind the curve and start to move out..

The Major
(Mon Sep 29 1997 01:46 - ID#372425)
Terrible Here..............

(Mon Sep 29 1997 01:52 - ID#287223)
ALL: I'm looking for an opening gap up ( spot gold ) OVER the critical 330 line sometime this week. Failing that, look out.//// Re theFOMC meeting tuesday, it seems to me that they're darned if they do and damned if they don't. If they hike rates, the market tanks. If they don't hike rates, the PMs are out of the holding tank.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 02:12 - ID#287223)
BART: My ID# changed. From 280222 to 287223 ( last post ) . Same computor. Same place. ??????????????????

(Mon Sep 29 1997 02:17 - ID#287223)
Puetz, APH, or other technicians: IF S&P cracks 700 sliding fast, where will it find support ( likely ) , and how soon? Thank you, ( will ck tomorrow to see if there are any responses...g'nite )

(Mon Sep 29 1997 02:36 - ID#194225)
up early...
EBN gold is DOWN $500!!!! I am not making this up.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 02:41 - ID#194225)
@eye pea addresses...
I believe that: your ID# is derived from the Internet address ( IP address ) of the computer that your PC hooks to when you dial in ( roughly speaking ) . Internet service providers have more than one IP address. Every time you call in you could get a different one... but it may be similar to prior ones.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 03:00 - ID#194225)
@the computer
EBN gold still down $499+... Concerning investing for Y2K - the question may be, gold stocks, bullion, or kruggerands? If the breakdown of the world economic system is severe enough, physical possession of precious metals is required. In that scenario, all stocks will be suspect. If the world economic system muddles through, and civil unrest is held in check, then bullion "pseudo-ownership" or gold stocks may make some people very rich between late 1998 and 2003 or so. As I continue to research Y2K, I move more toward the position that it will have a startling global economic impact. The middle course, between slight disruption and utter collapse, may cause gold mining stocks to skyrocket.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 04:29 - ID#386245)
No postings for an hour. Must be time for the "down under" shift to clock on. Remember guys/gals, your comments must be irrelevant ( don't mention the "g" word ) , sacrilegious, and only mildly obscene. Remember to use a few words like fair dinkum and dinky di to confuse 'em. Don't make too many predictions ( ala Peutz ) unless a ) you know what yer talkin' about, or b ) you have got lot's of shoe polish.

McDonald--enjoyed your posts today ( yesterday ) . Your quickness of delivery amazes me!!!

Aurator--we've got the market cornered on crooked politicians, mate. In Parliament yesterday a Liberal ( in ) said to a member of Labor ( out ) "What do you mean we've got our snouts in the trough?", "You guys MADE the trough!!".

Nick@Aussie--received your info, thanks mate. Hope to get the software and be able to use it soon. How about them NAB put warrants today? NAB down .61!! Will be up in Qld. in Jan. Probably won't make it to Cairns--as it's a bloody long drive, but would love to go over those programs with you. If they can do what you say they will, there are definite commercial possibilities.

6Pak--great name, mate!! In OZ we call it a "slab" ( 24 ) , as it would be useless buying a 6pak--would only last @ half an hour. My vote goes to you for the best post of the day, mate. That JFK silver certificate stuff is brilliant. Would like to hear more!! If any of you still think that JFK was killed by Oswald--please come down under. We can find a position for you on the front bench of the cabinet!! Only qualifications are being both blind AND ignorant ( my apologies to any blind people out there ) .

Glad to hear EBN gold is DOWN 499. I will pay any of you US$150/ounce if you will TAKE my gold coins off me. Best offer you're gonna get today, folks!!!!

(Mon Sep 29 1997 05:06 - ID#24864)
Evening Nick@Canberra ,Nick@Cairns , Steve@Perth , Aurator, Kiwi , and all other Antipodeans. Morning to all Up-Overs.

Nick, I put that NAB warrant of yours on my Share program today and saw it trading up around 50c . I think the low was around 34c last week. Well done. For my sins I dabble in Normandy warrants and ETO's. In my recent experience, warrants issued by a certain investment bank ( Holey Dollar ) who shall remain nameless ,are not "supported" in the secondary market despite glib claims by that bank of maintaining relatively stable implied volatility in the warrants in the interest of "developing" the market. Was it you who traded NDY calls the other day or Nick in the North. Be interested to hear of your warrant experiences. I'm at:
Steve welcome back to Perth. Will reply to your email soon.

A question for all. Normandy Mining Limited ( Australia's largest Gold producer ) to list on TSE in October. Will the price rise as North American funds buy a producer with a cheaper P/E , or will the price fall as all the Australian institutions who have gone long in anticipation are disappointed if it fails to breakout ?

For EB and other options traders, NDY finished today at $1.70. The Nov 175c finished at 8c. Expiry 27/11/97 ( 11/27/97 for the Yanks ) . Buy or Sell ?

Have a great Monday all.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 05:07 - ID#386245)
TED--saw a kayak ad in the paper yesterday--white water jobbie--looked real good. So the guy says "have a sit in it". I am 6'3" tall ( and good lookin' ) . Ted--have you ever tried putting on one of your wife's high heeled shoes?? Have you ever been to China and tried to get a bank clerk to take a US $20 bill with a corner torn off it?? Ted, have you ever tried to get a Kiwi to admit that Australia has the best rugby team on the planet? Mate, ain't nohow, noway I was gonna fit in that kayak!!! Not givin' up yet, mate. They must make kayaks that people can both fit into AND get out of if'n they tip over!!

(Mon Sep 29 1997 05:39 - ID#386245)
JohnC--welcome to Kitcoland. Bart ( a Canuck? ) has provided us here with a free university!! Three months on this site should qualify you for a degree in economics, poly sci., or applied scepticism. You might even learn a bit about precious metals!! I cannot tell a lie. It was "I" who bought the Normandy call options. I bought May'98 2.00 calls when NDY was about 1.50. Ndy closed at 1.70 today so , so far they're lookin' good. IMVHO soon after Normandy lists in Toronto next month I'm gonna call my travel agent and plan @ 6 months in Monaco, Bermuda and Cape Breton!!! The Yanks keep talking about their precious XAU. They have no idea what "good" gold stock looks like!! We've got it all. Cash in the bank, reserves in the ground, enough forward selling to cushion any "bad times", heaps of good exploration prospects etc. I reckon our gold shares are vastly undervalued compared to the N. American stuff. Normandy is such a brilliant buy--I'm just waiting for the perception to catch up with the reality!!!.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 05:47 - ID#194225)
@the millenium
EBN gold still down $499. Just wait 'til we see the glitches that kick in as 1/1/2000 approaches. It may be that _nothing_ will work.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 05:50 - ID#396136)
Been reading some interesting posts. Interesting because it's the first time I've seen several of you work on the long term. I don't mean a year or 18 mos., but several years even decades. The surprising thing is you came up with similar guesstimates to mine. My work is different than most of yours, but to come so close to the same conclusions is facinating to me.
Mike Sheller's work with TA in conjunction with Astrology, others with whatever methods they use, and mine, which is a combination of fundamentals and a variety of techs., including the use of protractors, studying rythms, time and distance etc. My work took me to 2003-2007, and bullion to US$ 2k to 5k. That's very close to the forcasts I've been reading.

As for the nearer term, as I've mentioned last week in my post, the bottom, I believe is in, and we should be going to 340-350 before coming back to possibly the high 320's. Silver I see going to $540-550 near term.
As I've stated several times, I have a lot of respect for the short term guys like Ted Dotson ( Oldman ) and RJ, but we don't work with the same approach. I've learned my limitations on the short side trading, so I've got to do what I've been good at, and that's long term.

If you look at the PMs, and stocks over 25-40 years, they've been in an uptrend. So "the trend's your friend" applies even to the PMs.
I'm fully aware that had one foreseen the break from the 800 level one should and could have played it more wisely. But that's hindsight, now,
isn't it?

(Mon Sep 29 1997 05:59 - ID#386245)
JohnC--Have just re-read my last post and it appears that I have just done a Puetz!! As there is always a chance that it could become a Ka-Puetz, I will add the following caveats ( you know--to the emptor ) .

Nick@Canberra>Nick@Canberra owns both shares and call options in Normandy Mining. The previous posting was made after a 6pak of Australia's finest ( VB ) . Therefore Nick@Canberra takes no responsibility whatsoever for the welfare of anyone who buys Normandy Mining when they list on the TSE ( that's Toronto guys/gals ) in October and drives the price of Nick's shares up. The fact that they would be getting the bargain of the century should not be taken into account. The fact that Nick thinks the price of NDY will double in the next 12 months should be ignored.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 06:15 - ID#286410)
Good Morning
US 30yr Bond-Yeild, UP .016
Johannesburg Gold ( JGAI ) +20.2, +2.14%.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 06:19 - ID#24864)
Thanks Nick,
For the gracious welcome, and I agree with your sentiment about Kitco-Chat. I've actually been here for about a year and don't post that often. I think I am a typical lurker in that I visit often, in awe at the quality and inspiration in the written contributions of many of the regular and irregular posters. I often feel my own tuppence worth might just be wasting electrons. At other times I get really browned off at the carrying on that goes on by some posters.. and lose interest for a while.

I also really want to again thank Bart for providing the best site ( I've found ) on the web for discussing precious metals markets. Some days I sit in wonderment at the education scrolling before my eyes.

So to Normandy..thanks for your reply. May 98 200's should give you plenty of time to capture any bull run ( if Andy Smith and his cronies can't muster more selling to stop it ) .Nov 200's closed at 8c today as I posted earlier and Aug 98 200 call warrants closed at 14.5c ( currently trading at a cheaper volatility than the ETO's. ) If these markets were as liquid as the OEX you and I could put on calender spreads till the sheep come home. ( Sorry Aurator ) ( Grin thingy )
Anyway Nick nice to chat. I suppose Ted and the other blokes Up-Over will be getting up soon so time to clear the bandwidth. Morning to D.A. and the other option traders too.
Happy trading Nick. Good luck mate.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 06:26 - ID#24864)
Sorry Nick,
That should have read Nov175c closed at 8c.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 06:37 - ID#26793)
DJ: The site you posted that uses the XAU and Spot? for a ratio
I had looked at it earlier. I don't understand how they get the blue line answer or how it is expressed. On friday the Ratio was .318 and they show a ratio near 100. The advantage of our new approach is that it uses ounces; thus inflation does not muddy the result. Another advantage is the simplicity of the concept. It is apples to apples, gold to gold. How much of your safe in-pocket gold are you willing to put at risk on the hope you can dig an even greater amount out of the ground. It forces you to make a decision not just the way an investor would make it, but also the way a gold miner would approach it.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 06:54 - ID#26793)
CC: I agree with your comments about the danger of using a ratio and of course you are correct about the changes in the reserves of each component company of the XAU. The numbers you used in your example imply that you are calculating the ratio the wrong way. Here is the correct way. Friday close XAU at 102, Spot at 323. Divide 102/323 = Ratio .316

We back tested to the start of the XAU on December 19, 1983 ( and also to 1979 using an XAU pseudo ) . The ratio ranged from .132 in January 1979 to .397 in January 1996. I used monthly figures, JTFlick used daily so we have some differences to iron out. We have the advantage of a chart to see the results, regretfully neither of us have the type of software that would let us post it for you to see also. We are working on that and hope a third party will come to the rescue. More comments are appreciated and welcome. We want to get this right.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 06:55 - ID#18970)
Mernin Donald and Ted. Looks like silver is up 5 cents on DBC. Wonder If we are going to have a "comex Stocks" rally like in '95 when the price ran up something like 1.80 lo to hi in about 2.5 months. Incidently, that was the last decent rally and Comex stocks are much lower now. What does anyone think.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 06:57 - ID#286199)
For those of us confused by the steep drop shown on the chart and the WSJ-Interactive London open of 321.00 on gold, the following AP news may help.

London dealers fixed a recommended gold price of $327.05 per ounce at
midmorning, up from the closing price of $326.90 bid Friday.
In Zurich the bid price was $327.00, up from $326.75 late Friday.
Earlier in Hong Kong, gold rose $1.30 to close at $327.25.
Silver traded in London at $4.84 a troy ounce, up from $4.78 late Friday.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 06:59 - ID#286410)
Johannesburg Gold ( JGAI ) Now +21.4 @964.2, +2.26%.
S&P 500 was positive, Now in minus ( -70,-95,now -110 ) .

Mike Sheller
(Mon Sep 29 1997 07:00 - ID#347447)
Fair Dinkum!
Stand back Mates! That chewin' sound you hear is silver gnawing through 17 years of onerous repression and ugly downtrend. It's in the tunnel now..all's it's gotta do is slip past the dogs, feeding them slobbering short sellers chunks of its own flesh, and scramble over the barbed wire at around $5. It's the BIG BREAKOUT attempt. This could be a breathtaking week. NICK: Great job as the Kitco "Down Under Shift" host! A pleasant way to start the day over here. You're even there before Ted.

Bill Buckler
(Mon Sep 29 1997 07:05 - ID#257234)
With spot gold at $US 327, and the $A at $US 0.7185, the Aussie Dollar Gold price is right around the $A 454-455 level. This makes $A Gold a most definite buy. BTW, the Aussie Gold index was down 12 points or just under 1.0% today ( Sept. 29 )

Unless something like another RBA announcement springs forth, I expect the $US Gold price to follow. It always has. I will be posting the updated $A Gold chart right away at

As I have posted here previously, $A Gold has always led $US gold at market turning points. The timing is not consistent, the precedent is.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 07:11 - ID#386245)
Mike Sheller. G'day Mike. You don't fool me a bit, mate!! You're a wolf in sheeps clothing. Underneath that astrological sheepskin lies a brilliant technical analyst!! Read your Rhino article --and loved it. I'll bet you've got a hide as thick as one also!! I don't care if the moon is in the seventh house as long as the gravitational pull is in the same direction as my investments. Keep up the excellent postings. Cheers from down under.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 07:14 - ID#343289)

To Nick ( Canberra ) and John C : Interested in your comments on NDY as it is my largest single holding.

Nick - why do you think that the listing on the TSE will give a significant lift to the price ? For example, I have no problem buying shares in the US or Canada through my Australian broker and I expect that people in the US can easily buy shares on the ASX. In particular, the large investors who tend to have the biggest influence on price would have ready access to all markets. NDY is definitely a great buy at current levels, I'm just not sure of the logic in betting on short term options.

Cheers, Milhouse

(Mon Sep 29 1997 07:37 - ID#288181)
Stalder: Pls share with us the web location of the Johannesburg Gold index. Thx mate.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 07:46 - ID#286410)
Scroll down to the bottom of the page, you can click on it
for more information.

Up Over
(Mon Sep 29 1997 07:47 - ID#27934)
Nick ( @Canberra ) : GDay Mate: Ya forgot to mention the bloomin location of the verrrrrry phophetic GOLD & BOND report:

George Cole
(Mon Sep 29 1997 07:47 - ID#430205)
Earl:Naturally bullion must follow the XAU higher for the move to be sustained. Given the VERY HIGH VOLUME of this move, the odds are good that that this will be the case.

Spot gold now is very close to breaking the downtrend line on Captain Bill's chart. A move to $330 on volume will allow us to reach $340-$350
very quickly before a pullback commences. XAU shoild climb another 10-20% under this scenario.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 07:49 - ID#386245)
Millhouse ( no relation to R.M.N. I trust?! ) .
If and when gold/share take off many N.Americans are going to be looking for bargains in markets other than their own ( IMHO ) .The better S.A. and OZ shares will benefit from this extra interest. Normandy has got everything going for it ( see my earlier post ) and a much better P/E than it's N.American cousins to boot. I believe that many are afraid of investing too far from home. Toronto opens up a whole new world for NDY within arms reach of millions of investors. They don't realise that the entire world is their oyster and will buy at the TSE but not the ASX.

If you wanna 'nother one look up Acacia ( AAA ) . Aussie gold index down today but AAA up 4.6%. I'm into 'em big time 'caus there's gold in them thar hills!!

(Mon Sep 29 1997 07:50 - ID#251134)
@ Arranged Marriage
Nick @ Canberra. With both Eagle and Wiluna saying NO DEAL to Uncle Joe ( Great Central Mines ) Where do you think Joe stands with the white knight, Sir Robert of Normandy. If Joe does fail in his bids, does GCM automatically fall to Normandy? If not, how does Joe settle up with Robert?

(Mon Sep 29 1997 07:52 - ID#26793)
MIKE SHELLER: I like the way you are talking! Did you get a chance to do any near term work on the XAU?

TED: We have 67 and a drizzle, first rain in a month I think. You can have it in a couple of days.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 07:59 - ID#26793)
MARK: Re spread on forward sales. I am not sure I know enough to answer that one. Wait for JTFlick or perhaps someone else will comment.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 08:01 - ID#251134)
What's with the ID Number? I've been away in J'Burg for a week and come home to find I'm branded! Has there been blood on the site ( again ) since I've been away?

(Mon Sep 29 1997 08:02 - ID#364147)
Mornin Donald!...57+ sunny up .80 @ 329.80....S+P futures up .30....

(Mon Sep 29 1997 08:04 - ID#390214)
El Nino
...good morning depth article in this morning LA Times...
In Colombia, where officials are playing down its impact, El
Nino has swept through 13 of 31 states, drying up rivers and
streams and leaving formerly lush pastures brown and scarred.
Water levels in area reservoirs are down at least 30%.
Three months of drought have wiped out 240,000 acres of
Colombian corn, soybeans and sorghum, according to the National
Assn. of Cereal Producers. And the National Commodities
Exchange reports that cotton and rice production have fallen 23%
and 10%, respectively.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 08:14 - ID#364147)
@ capebreton
Mike Sheller: I'm gettin scooped ain't I....damn aussies!....Mornin WW: silver lookin strong again this morn....

(Mon Sep 29 1997 08:18 - ID#235389)
For those interested: A coin show at Beaumont Tx this past weekend had
several dealers selling the following:

US gold eagle ( 1OZ ) 340.00
Can Maple leaf " 340.00
US Silver eagle 130.00 / roll
Englehard silver 5.00 /oz rounds or bars
US platinum proof 457.00 ( a beautiful coin )
SA Krugarrand 332.00

(Mon Sep 29 1997 08:19 - ID#26793)
WW: Good Morning. Lots of optimisim here at Kitco this morning, and Down Under as well from the night crew.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 08:23 - ID#426220)
GOLD-EAGLE beams MONTHLY SPOTLIGHT on 1997s exemplary market commentary to recognize analysts. To see biographical sketch of those spotlighted & awarded studies, just CLICK HALL OF FAME plaque at:

(Mon Sep 29 1997 08:26 - ID#364147)
@ Nick(C)(5:07)
Mornin Mate and wonder of wonders...I have tried all those things and @ 6 feet one ( and ugly ) I have no problem in gettin into my kayak...Course I got a seakayak ( 16.5 feet long ) and not one of them white-water jobbies...Dec gold up .70 and silver up 5.3 cents

(Mon Sep 29 1997 08:30 - ID#26793)
Economist objects to the analysis of Barton Biggs titled "Ice Age" posted here several days ago.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 08:31 - ID#386245)
Au 99.9---jeez 99, it's late and you want me to think!! This is the top half's shift and I'm supposed to be absorbing!! ( actually I've absorbed a fair bit tonight!! ) .

Even the Aust. Financial Review can't unravel Normandy's purchase of Uncle Joe's Great Central Mines. All I know is it's a damned good investment and if Uncle Joe trips, De Cresp's will be there to catch the gold. This is a takeover by stealth. Eagle and Wiluna have fantastic exploration acreage and are holding out for more moola. If you were a takeover artist, could you imagine a better time in the last few years than now to take over some of the best Au properties in the world??

(Mon Sep 29 1997 08:40 - ID#26793)
October 13, 1997

"We Were Great!"--Except for...

Spinning the Numbers

Carol J. Loomis

The cover of ConAgra's 1997 annual report, just out for its fiscal
year ended in May, shows a box of Healthy Choice "grilled glazed
pork"--also a pretty apt description of one financial rendering inside
the report. This hard-to-swallow stuff leads off the chairman's letter,
signed by CEO Philip Fletcher and President Bruce Rohde, and
says, "ConAgra's 17 consecutive years of earnings per share growth
at a compound rate better than 14% is unequaled by any major food
company in the United States, and probably in the world." Alongside
is the inevitable chart, reproduced below, showing a steadily
ascending staircase of earnings.

Hello! Slide to the small print under the chart. It says that the earnings
record "excludes" an accounting change in 1993 ( for retiree health
benefits ) and also "excludes" no fewer than three years of
nonrecurring charges, in 1983, 1984, and 1996. Meaning that
bottom-line earnings didn't climb steadily at all. The worst year was
1996, when the nonrecurring charges, most of them for a
"restructuring" expected to lop off a number of plants and 6,300
employees, amounted to $508 million. That wallop reduced
ConAgra's per share earnings from $2.06 in 1995 to $0.79 in 1996.

At least we know that ConAgra didn't lop off the part of the
company, nor the employees, that grill and glaze those numbers.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 08:45 - ID#343289)
@Mr Nixon

Nick - no relation to R.M.N although, for M Sheller's info, we do have the same star sign. Actually, RMN is looking pretty good these days. Everything is relative after all.

Re NDY and GCM - Joe has added about 1.5% to his own GCM stake over the last 3 weeks. This one will be interesting to watch.

Cheers, Milhouse

Bob M
(Mon Sep 29 1997 08:47 - ID#26059)
Good morning all, could this be the week where a little excitement takes hold in the metals market? Sooner or later ( probably sooner ) the boys on Wall Street whom are constantly looking for bargains, will realize that gold and gold stocks are really a good buy with little downside risk. Then the fireworks will begin.....

(Mon Sep 29 1997 08:53 - ID#26793)
This story is not gold related in any way. It provides a wonderful insight into the Japanese mindset and clues on how they might behave in the future.

Spud Master
(Mon Sep 29 1997 09:01 - ID#273112)
defectors die hard....
Bob M - I would agree with you EXCEPT for the tiny reason that once gold & precious metals break loose, the paper game is over. Of course the precious metals stocks are screaming buys - how Wall Street must look upon them with lust - but who amoung that Wall Street cabal wants to be first to break with the great, silent conspiracy that has driven down gold in deference to paper? They'd get a free visit from the X-Files' "Cancer Man" ( grin ) . So, either they've got to all go at once ( like a herd of penguins on a cliff top ) and be saved by anonymity, or else step out and be in the flood light as a defector from "The Cause" ( aka New World Order ) .

(Mon Sep 29 1997 09:10 - ID#36965)
Joke of the morn
Well folks, it looks like silver is sneaking up on us. Gold will soon follow. I think that those who are predicting a gold low around 380/oz will be left holding the threads out of the bag. Here's the joke of the morn such as it is--material is pretty soft lately.

This old man goes to the doctor and tells him that he thinks that
his wife is going deaf, and he'd sure like some advice about how to
help her, but knows she will get upset if he approaches her without
the evidence.

The doctor tells him that he needs to know exactly how deaf she is
before he can give much help. He suggested that the guy go home and
find out what distance away he needs to be for his wife to hear him.

So the old man goes home, opens the front door and says:
"Hi honey, I'm home. What's for dinner?" but with no reply.

He then moves to the living room and repeats the question,
but still gets no reply. Next, he walked to the kitchen door and
repeated the same sentence, without any success. Finally,
he came right up behind his wife, put his arms around her and
said: "Hi honey, I'm home! What's for dinner?"

"For the fourth and last time, you deaf old coot, it's CHICKEN!"

(Mon Sep 29 1997 09:16 - ID#261118)
@ all
I know most folks here are of the com. trader's bent, but I must call your attention to SSRIF on the nasdq. Silver Standard, for those who dont know,is, more or less, a silver contract. They do nothing but lease, explore, prove up reserves and then wait for a buyer. Have a look at their chart on Yahoo to see what recent silver strength has done to their price; I'm in them at 3 1/4, today will see further gains.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 09:22 - ID#30116)
@Mexico rainy day fund???
What do `they` know that we don't, ... yet?

(Mon Sep 29 1997 09:37 - ID#427357)
In light of SILVERs price rise, its relevant to read Silver Stocks, there aint too many. Reviews Pan Am Silver, Silver Standard, Intl Avino, United Kino & Sunshine, others:

(Mon Sep 29 1997 09:39 - ID#261118)
My E is correct.Someone please post or E me the URL of "The Skeptical Investor". An article of their's was posted here some days ago but the've no "home page" link at the bottom of the article; do advise as this fellow had some interesting thoughts.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 09:54 - ID#373174)
panda ( @Mexico rainy day fund??? ) : The naive & Greedy Gringo will suffer YET again. Lookout for the Mother of All Devaluations

(Mon Sep 29 1997 09:55 - ID#228257)
Skeptical Investor
You can also get there from the Magic Elf page.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 10:00 - ID#333405)

May help with your Acacia gold comments

(Mon Sep 29 1997 10:02 - ID#364147)
@ Badger
Just e-mailed you the address of the Skeptical Investor....and for all of the others:

(Mon Sep 29 1997 10:08 - ID#261118)
@ Pain Palace
Gents; thanks to you both for the URL. Now I'm of to the dentist, Yea!! Shat a way to spend my day off......

(Mon Sep 29 1997 10:32 - ID#426220)
Stocks DOWN, STUFF UP: XAU +2.10, HAU +1.20, Gold UP +0.60, Silver UP 10 cents, Plat UP 2.20 & Pall UP 1.50. NEW much faster designed INTRA-DAY Charts page:

(Mon Sep 29 1997 10:38 - ID#213265)
@the scene
If the play between XAU and gold occurs today like last Thursday, gold should break UP REAL SOOn now. Near 2 hours +/- after XAU makes its move.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 10:45 - ID#365216)
to spud master
Loved your 0901 post man. I wouldn't be a bit supprised if
Turner is hedging his $1 Billion "gift" to the New World Order
( ie UN ) with either a huge short position on the S&P or long
position on the metals. He may be evil but he's no dummy.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 10:59 - ID#334219)
DONALD: "The numbers you used in your example imply that you are calculating the ratio the wrong way" Well, I guess one can use the XAU/Gold or Gold/XAU ratio in the same way...a ratio is a ratio.

Silver up .10 this morning and the Gold/Silver ratio now at 66.67 is in a downtrend which supports a bull move. I am not sure if any of these ratios can be used reliably to forecast the next move... but one thing is sure, in terms of market cap per ounce in the ground, the gold/silver sector is really cheap.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 11:06 - ID#30116)
Either my data feed is screwed up or somebody did a block dump of 100K shares of SWC. Did anybody read/see/hear anything?

Spud Master
(Mon Sep 29 1997 11:17 - ID#273112)
explaination for silver consumption over the years...
All - comment requested - I've wondered who/what has been using silver for the last 15 years to pull down stocks recently: photographic film? dental fillings? silver brazing rod? Well, silver/mercury dental amalgams are almost ready to be banned ( my dentist hasn't used them for two years ) . Silver braxing rod use must be minute. Possibly Asian increased film consumption? Red China? Then this morning I noticed on my company's internal TV Pravda news that we are switching from using tin-lead alloy solder ( for health-hazard/environmental reasons ) . "Ah ha!" I thought - there is where the demand for silver has come from - zillions of computer board makers dumping tin-lead for silver. Who out there has a good understanding of this?

(Mon Sep 29 1997 11:33 - ID#426220)
It can't crash of course during Oct - even a conventional decline would not be bullish if it gets a weekly basis close below Dow 7775 during next six weeks:

(Mon Sep 29 1997 11:46 - ID#246272)
Spud-Master:Can you guess how many watch batteries,hearing aid batteries,
batteries for cameras and all the other gadgets small batteries are used for,billions I would guess and increasing!they all need minute amounts of silver.And I would bet half of it is not recovered ever.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 11:50 - ID#318321)
In electronic applications silver is used more and more. For example the nickel-silver alloy is used in many switching and contact applications. To reduce the use of lead in solder applications silver is being used more and more. As a R.F. ( Radio Frequency ) shield silver is excellent. Silver contacts and shielding in cellular phones and other microwave applications is on the increase. And finally from the conspiracy realm colloidal silver is being used as an anti-biotic by those who have an interest in alternative medicine. Additionally there is a body of thought that silver coins may be better to have after the "crunch" than gold because gold will be way to valuable and you won't be able to get change, i.e. silver coins will be more liquid. Thus silver coins are very popular among the "survivalists".

Lan Man
(Mon Sep 29 1997 11:54 - ID#31766)
@Wall Streets Leading Cheerleader
CNBC just had Wall Streets talking head Joe Batapaglia on - and as usual he is Bullish!!! Bullish on US stox both large and small cap, Bullish on Asia, the transports, financials and insurance heck he's bullish on everything! Well except for the fact that he didnt mention the metals... This guy makes me sick - what a first class motor mouth. "Stox are fairly valued and profits keep going up blah blah blah" He's just like that Energizer Bunny - he keeps going and going and going...

Friggin speed freak.

Bob M
(Mon Sep 29 1997 12:02 - ID#26059)
Just spoke to a stock broker friend of mine and he laughs when I talk about gold...kind of feel like an attorney trying to defend Timothy MCVeigh when the jury has already decided the fate...its getting harder and harder to make any kind of case for looks bleak...laughter abounds from the paper money people..Im sure I am not the only one in here that experiences this...was telling him about the Smart Cards that are being issued and that ultimately they will be back by gold...drew a huge laugh..says T-bills yield 6%..oh well...

(Mon Sep 29 1997 12:07 - ID#215208)
Help! I'm blind!!
Panic. Silver off to the races and I can't see any of the postings. I hope it is just an AOL quirk, and the rest of you are chatting away gleefully.

Strad Master
(Mon Sep 29 1997 12:24 - ID#250297)
Raisin or Chocolate Chip?
BART: What's the cookie for that Kitco wants to install when I arrive at the site? Thanks for the info.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 12:25 - ID#364147)
@ misery loves company
Hi DJ ( 12:07 ) YOU are the only post I can read.....probably can't post this either but no great loss as I don't have a damn thing to add to this forum @ the moment other than the fact that SILVER is soarin, ditto XAU ( up 2.46 ) ....gettin so I can't post or read durin "business hours" and am beginning ta wonder if this is some kind of somethin..
Where's Tort?? Where's Moonie??? how bout you EB...go STONES...

(Mon Sep 29 1997 12:39 - ID#386276)
Comments on gold, bottom half of article plus charts.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 12:40 - ID#426220)
LBMA EXPOS: PART 4 (September 29, 1997) A Collective-Mind Analysis Compiled by Red Baron
London Bullion Marketing Association is best described as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Daily gold trading NEARLY TWICE South Africas annual production:

(Mon Sep 29 1997 12:45 - ID#215208)
Assistance required.
Bart - Help. I can't see the posts. All the header shows up except the "submit" button, and the download stops with no posts displayed. In frameview, the frames show up, the realtime quotes show up, most of the graphs appear, and some of the discussion header info, but no posts.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 12:55 - ID#57232)
Mike Sheller: Silver up 20 cents last time I checked. Looks like your turning point for Silver was an UP! My guess is that since the ECU/EMU effective deadline is Jan 1998, the powers that be will do there best to prevent an all-out gold/silver rally, but we still might make $350/oz!
My perusal of the last 80 years of gold prices and inflation is that the equilibrium price of gold is about $600/oz. Don't understand silver as well as gold. Could very well overshoot this in 1998, even without the A Greenspan - induced dollar flood!

(Mon Sep 29 1997 12:58 - ID#372100)


Mike Sheller
(Mon Sep 29 1997 13:24 - ID#347447)
Even the Lone Ranger don't understand silver. Silver is as silver does, my mamma used to say ( while polishing the knives and forks ) . Silver is now at the top of the barbed wire fence. The snarling dogs are below and behind it. Chunks of flesh tossed to them to stave them off for the last lurch up the chain links. The razor strips are cutting deep, but the light of freedom is ahead. Into the light of freedom after 17 years of captivity. Oh sure, there'll be a rush to $6 soon, and then they'll try to beat it down again. There'll be the obligatory return move. A trader has to wait for that on a breakout this big, this important. But then the Great Climb will begin afresh, in early '98. Just a few cents more, hanging from the fence top, dropping to the liberated soil below... Free at last, Free at last. Great God Almighty...Free at last!

(Mon Sep 29 1997 13:55 - ID#289289)'s come I can not see the text? And all I get is the "short version" of your option box?? It would appear that the posting doofer works OK......

(Mon Sep 29 1997 14:04 - ID#289289)
Bart......RED ALERT! I can't seem to look at the postings from any given day. ( I'm trying to go back to Thursday. ) Moreover, I get that irritating "short version" of your Viewing options. All it allows me to do is pick a month and if I want the long or short versions of the posts. And there is no submit button! HELPPPPP!!

(Mon Sep 29 1997 14:14 - ID#432148)
GENERAL: UR 10:45.You noticed Ted said "up to" one bil. And I wouldn't trust him too far with my $. I think he will do anything for a little press. Even marry YKW :- )

(Mon Sep 29 1997 14:35 - ID#215208)
Kitco very spotty
Ted - Finally managed to get all of today's posts, but now back to the same problem. Sounds like the same thing you are experiencing. Probably related to Kitco activity. Seems to happen whenever there is a big move in one of the metals.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 14:39 - ID#215208)
Ratio graph
Donald - If you want to e-mail the ratio data to me, I will post the chart.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 15:03 - ID#215208)
Had a request to repost the channel chart, so here it is.

Looking at silver, if we use the same channel width for the move up as was defined during the trip down, then spot silver is now at the top of the channel ( the reason the graph doesn't show it at the top is that the data I plot is the London closing ) . Given the steepness of the price increase, the price could well break through this channel top. IMHO if it does this, it is related to a temporary short squeeze, and should result in a shorting opportunity. Dangerous, though, as it would be contra-trend.

If I choose an optimistic course for gold, then it is wandering upward towards the top of the newly defined channel.

Platinum has pulled back to the middle of its channel, and palladium is bouncing along the bottom of its steeply rising channel.

Lan Man
(Mon Sep 29 1997 15:08 - ID#320108)
@Futures Charts
Vronsky - your Intra-Day gold and futures charts are not updating, any ideas as to why?

Neil Collett
(Mon Sep 29 1997 15:19 - ID#38970)
Methinks inflation inducing oil price rise may be leading gold. Oil up again today!! See charts at http:\\

(Mon Sep 29 1997 15:33 - ID#252219)
@ Looking For A Wedge:
Time to replace that Silver wedge bar that I been using to keep the door open for the last twenty years. I wonder what I could replace it with.???

Doug Schott
(Mon Sep 29 1997 15:41 - ID#215196)

Is the system up? I can't see any new comments.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 15:42 - ID#318321)
I keep hearing this term cheap hedge. especially in the following article

(Mon Sep 29 1997 15:43 - ID#30116)
Everytime that there is a big move in one of the metals, it seems as though this chat site goes off-line. What gives? Did anyone see my post regarding SWC?

(Mon Sep 29 1997 16:04 - ID#31876)
PANDA -- Re. your post @ 15:43, there is a chat site on SI covering
SWC. Everytime I look-in they're bitchin' about forward selling that
cripples profits. There was something recently about selling SWC, then
watchin' it fall to $l6 so they could then buy it back cheaper.

The Wichita Lineman
(Mon Sep 29 1997 16:05 - ID#374200)
Copper info needed
I know of two copper producers that are trading well below their assets, and I want to know if anyone here is a copper buff. I know the outlook is dim, but they said that about gold too. Thanks in advance to anyone at Kitco who can shead some light on coppers' future, inventories, consumption, trends, anything appreciated.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 16:07 - ID#252132)
@ The Public Library...zzzzzzzzz:
Well, another boring UP day in the Gold and Silver Indexes.8- )

(Mon Sep 29 1997 16:25 - ID#255285)
no work today...joyous happy smiley face.. fa la la
Panda saw your 11:06 on SWC but nothing since.

All traders..

**As usual it looks as if any major move will be made *between* CoT
reports. This is NO coincidence, believe me!!!**
This comment by one Brian Hammond lifted from Nicks 12:39 the URL
he referred to is
Has anyone got any info to support/contradict this?
Perhaps AUAG Glenn, Yellow Jacket, RJ or anyone else ?
;= ) )

(Mon Sep 29 1997 16:32 - ID#391142)
@gold a cheap hedge

Gold, silver stocks extend comeback
NEW YORK, Sept 29 ( Reuter ) - Gold and silver stocks
extended their recent comeback on Monday, as portfolio managers
moved into the sector, spotting a cheap way to diversify their
funds at the end of the quarter.
The Philadelphia Stock Exchange's Gold and Silver Index
.XAU was up nearly three percent, adding 3.20 to 105.43. The
jump came on top of last week's gain of nearly 10 percent.
"People are really heading into these stocks because it's
cheap portfolio diversification at the end of the quarter and
the end of the year and it's a really cheap hedge," said Thomas
McNamara, analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.
Gold stocks made solid moves higher despite little change
in the price of gold. Newmont Mining Corp NEM.N rose three
percent, adding 1-5/16 to 44-5/16, Barrick Gold Corp ABX.N
ABX.TO was up 10/16 to 24-1/16, and Echo Bay Mines ECO.A
rose 3/16 or nearly four percent percent to 5-1/8.
The gold market is heading into a period of traditionally
strong holiday demand as the Hindu wedding and harvest
festivals and Western holiday periods approach.
"These stocks have been so mashed up and maligned that they
were really due for a bit of a rally," said Richard Davis, head
of research at Rauscher Pierce Refsnes Inc.
Silver stocks jumped on both the overall move into precious
metals plus a rise in silver prices. Hecla Mining Co HL.N
shares were up nearly six percent, adding 5.68 percent or 5/16
to 5-13/16, and Pan American Silver Corp PAA.TO PAASF.O
rose 7/16 to 7-5/16 on the Nasdaq.
McNamara said people were also drawn to the stocks because
they provided an excellent defensive strategy at a low price.
"It's a really cheap hedge. The S&P gold index is running a
-0.94 correlation to the S&P, so its almost a perfect
correlation. I think people are beginning to realize that," he

(Mon Sep 29 1997 16:33 - ID#391142)
what happened to RYO today?

(Mon Sep 29 1997 16:42 - ID#194311)
Chooo chooo
Train's a leaving....bandwagon's full

Cowboys pumping jiggers get left behind.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 16:47 - ID#194311)
Paper Powder Running Out
The Investment Company Institute reports the net new cash flow into stock mutual funds last month was $13.85 billion, barely half as much as the month before. The total assets of stock funds declined, amid
slumping markets in the U.S. and overseas. Bond and income funds recorded $7.28 billion in new investment, the largest total in three-
and-a-half years.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 16:51 - ID#411192)
in sacramento
All: France hints counter sanctions are in the cards if US punishes oil giant Total for Iran Trade. The 15-nation EU prepares joint retaliatory measures against US, as well, if the "D'Amato Law" is enforced:

Panda: Trouble getting through to Kitco started last night for me ( is *that* an indicator? ) . It worries me, because just when I'm going to need to know what everyone's thinking the most, I won't be able to get through. Not to Kitco, not to any other talk forum, and not to EBN or ABN, either. At least that's been my experience. I've even had trouble getting through to my broker when things get hectic . . . Jeez, I sound like an old battle-hardened trader. But I've only been in this game since last spring! What's going to happen when the REAL unpleasantness hits the fan? Come on, Internet II!!! ( and come on gold ) .

(Mon Sep 29 1997 16:53 - ID#194311)
Froggy's Lit a Timebomb
This has it all, Arab oil, Euro-US trade war, who's your real friends?
Pressures mounting Dollar-Bill.
U.S. Senator wants sanctions on France's Total
WASHINGTON, Sept 29 ( Reuter ) - U.S. Sen. Alfonse D'Amato on
Monday called for sanctions against Total SA, the French oil
company that signed a $2 billion deal with Iran to develop a
giant offshore natural gas field.
"There is no doubt that Total has been trying to precipitate
a dispute with this contract over the implementation of the
Iran-Libya Sanctions Act," D'Amato, the act's sponsor, said in a
"This law is a vital weapon for cutting the flow of hard
currency to Iran, with which it pays for its program of
terrorism and aggression," the New York Republican said, adding
that Total "should be sanctioned to the fullest extent of the
The State Department earlier on Monday said it intended to
enforce sanctions law over Total's deal to develop Iran's South
Pars field with the National Iranian Oil Co.
France has warned the United States against retaliation over
the deal.
The U.S. Iran-Libya Sanctions Act passed last year requires
President Bill Clinton to impose sanctions on any foreign
company investing more than $20 million a year in the two
countries' energy industries.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 17:06 - ID#26793)
CC: When you compute using the XAU/Spot method you get an answer in ounces. Thus changes in the value of the dollar 1983 to the present are ignored. You have an honest answer in real money.

When you compute using the Spot/XAU method you get and answer in units of the XAU. As the XAU is priced in dollars the comparison to earlier years is misleading in that 1983 dollars are worth more than the present day dollars. Your answer is less honest and expressed in fiat money.

Today the XAU/Spot Ratio is .321 ounces ( 105.45/328.20 )

Expressed the other way 1 ounce of gold will buy 3.11 XAU units ( That is the Y.Auger method ) ( 328.20/105.45 )

This is new to all of us so comments are important. Keep them coming.

Yellow Jacket
(Mon Sep 29 1997 17:10 - ID#185112)
On Cu.
WHICHITA LINEMAN: Copper is stuck in the doldrums for a while, I'm afraid. It's reported that inventories are very high. This, I think, is good news for Au since major copper producers like Freeport-MacMoran will pump out less gold as by-product of operations.

Yellow Jacket
(Mon Sep 29 1997 17:10 - ID#185112)
On Cu.
WHICHITA LINEMAN: Copper is stuck in the doldrums for a while, I'm afraid. It's reported that inventories are very high. This, I think, is good news for Au since major copper producers like Freeport-MacMoran will pump out less gold as by-product of operations.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 17:18 - ID#376309)
Silver up big, Copper up big, Oil up big, CRB up, Gold up, and Bonds are down today!

What's this world coming too??

I sure hope it lasts!!

(Mon Sep 29 1997 17:24 - ID#348397)
hmmm....let's see, another 100 days like this in the gold market, and we have the start of a bull. Right?

George Cole
(Mon Sep 29 1997 17:29 - ID#430205)
One more good upday and the yellow will break the downtrend line on Captain Bill's chart. That could trigger some real fireworks in very short order.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 17:30 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio 24.35

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Mon Sep 29 1997 17:36 - ID#25867)
DO NOT ADJUST YOUR SETS... we seem to be having technical problems related to our web host. They are looking at it. If access to the group keeps fading, just keep trying until it works. If you see only a poriton of the messages then click on the "submit" to re-load more.

ID# DEPT: It's OK if you you have more than one ID#. It's normal to generate two or maybe three different ones.

COOKIE DEPT: The cookies are set so that when you come back you'll be using your last viewing options and you'll see only what you've been missing. Don't ask me why they're called cookies.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 17:44 - ID#215208)
Donald - CC is right. Your ratio yields units of ounces/XAU-share and the inverse yield units of XAU-shares/ounce. Either way the ratio is independent of dollar value, and both are equally good to use for your purposes. Did you catch my offer to generate the graph from your data? If you would like my help, send to:

(Mon Sep 29 1997 17:57 - ID#26793)
Our weekend toy, the XAU/Spot Ratio, is only one day old and already making me antsy. With the Ratio at .321 it is out of the "can't loose" range and into the higher risk area. We need a big move, $10 or more in metal to get back in the safe range. We have been in the high risk area of this ratio for about 26 of the past 36 months. You know the results. Of course, another way back into safe territory is a big drop in the XAU. No one is voting for that. Since January of 1996 the ratio has been trending toward the safe buy range, ie bargin gold and xau prices.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 18:06 - ID#26793)
DJ: Yes I did, check your mailbox, thank you. You are not buying the argument about 1983 dollars vs 1997 dollars? Did you read my response to CC?

Yellow Jacket
(Mon Sep 29 1997 18:08 - ID#185112)
A mg. of gold (US$0.01055) for your thoughts.
GEORGE COLE: It's almost a given that the FOMC will stand pat on the O/N rate. Given some inflationary signs in the economy, no rate rise should cause Au prices to rise tomorrow. What do you think? Anyone else?

(Mon Sep 29 1997 18:13 - ID#426220)
There are bulls, there are bears. But what does the "RHINO" have to say about bonds and gold? Find out in TRADING THE RHINO, Mike
Sheller's trading strategy that even a kid can use:

Yellow Jacket
(Mon Sep 29 1997 18:13 - ID#185112)
Sell, eh?
DELPHI: It seems the oracle failed. I hope no one sold on your advice. Any more predictions? You still did not substantiate your prediction and, as Nick will tell you, that is a direct violation of the Zurich axioms.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 18:21 - ID#411192)
in sacramento
Bart: Here's what I dug up with AltaVista:

Just why are they called cookies? Like many Internet terms, cookies came from the Unix world where systems that needed to pass small tokens or bits of information called them "magic cookies" or "cookies." We can probably thank some Unix hacker for not making us talk about the implications of "persistent server tokens." --Al Berg, LAN Times

I am Homer of Borg! Prepare to be... Ooooooo! Donuts!

(Mon Sep 29 1997 18:31 - ID#57232)
Donald: Finally got a chance to respond. I think we are safe in gold stocks for the next week or so, but I do agree with you that the XAU/gold ratio is moving in dangerous territory, as it has been doing our 1 1/2 year bear in gold. If gold fails to follow silver during this time period, we may have what George Cole, RJ, and the Oldman were talking about -- a bull trap in a bear market ( I hope I got the terms right ) ! The ECU/EMU antics with gold may not end until 1988. The powers that be have to make the entry of their new currency look good -- can't have a gold rally! My guess is that if we do get a big gold rally this year, it will be because oof an international crisis.
We may need to take our profits short term. We'll have plenty of opportunities in the next several years, especially after the ECU/EMU honeymoon wears off. The equilibrium price of gold, based on the last 100 years, should be about $600/oz, even without the obvious consequences of the new A Greenspan dollar flood.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 18:37 - ID#335190)
TSE @ Gold
September 29, 1997
Toronto stocks end higher on soaring golds, metals

TORONTO ( Reuter ) - High-flying gold and base metal issues pushed Toronto's stock market to a strong finish Monday ahead of the U.S. Federal Open Market committee meeting Tuesday.
The Toronto Stock Exchange's key 300 Composite Index climbed 36.58 to close at its session high of 7012.46.
"We had a pretty good day," said Jim Mountain, ScotiaMcLeod's managing director of private client equity trading. " ( The ) recent bullish tone in the golds continues," he said.

Among active stocks, Barrick Gold Corp., North America's largest gold miner, rose 0.65 to 33.20 in heavy trading. TVX Gold Inc. rose 0.25 to 7.75.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 18:51 - ID#426220)
It can't crash of course during Oct - even a conventional decline would not be bullish if it gets a weekly basis close below Dow 7775 during next six weeks:

Steve - Perth
(Mon Sep 29 1997 18:56 - ID#284177)
JOHNC ( Sunny & HUMID Brisbane ) : I was delighted to note your somewhat
skeptical comments about the Warrants being issued by the certain
Bank that has an excellent Cash Management Trust. Why I have not
ventured strongly into this area is that Warrants are pretty much an
invention of a strong stock market over the past year or two. I am waiting to see what happens to them when things fall apart. Maybe I am missing something, but wouldn't it be better to buy them AFTER a severe
correction, than when they are on top of a mountain peak? ( in relative
terms? ) I am not into short term untested investment vehicles. I avoided
the ECCCL deal 3 to 4 years ago, & thank God I did. 20% return guaranteed, on derivatives..... The real secret is finding an investment that is not likely to go down much more. I suspect that is gold stocks.
And maybe Davids & Burns Philp & certain SE Asian stock mkts. But am sitting back to make further assessment.

Steve - Perth
(Mon Sep 29 1997 18:58 - ID#284177)
DONALD: Keep posting the daily Gold/Dow ratios. Am watching the ratio to go DOWN, which may indicate things are down the Water Closet ( Or Dunny here ) . Excellent work.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 19:09 - ID#364147)
@ capebreton
Dec. gold up .30 @ 330.70 ...Hi Steve-Perth!

(Mon Sep 29 1997 19:14 - ID#26793)
JTF: On our new ratio. Take a look at the chart you generated that shows the most recent action. When you add the result for today you get what I think technical people call a double bottom. Is the date labeling correct? The london chart goes to the far right and the other two fall short. Are you only showing 1996? Also, do you have an opinion on the exchange between CC, DJ and myself on the advantage or disadvantage of which side of the ratio we use? The usefullness of the ratio really showed today. It was a great launch day, lots of action! One last thing. This whole exercise started with your 1987 question. With the today ratio number go back and look at October, 1987. Dangerous territory indeed!

(Mon Sep 29 1997 19:20 - ID#427357)
BROADER-BASED GOLD FUNDS INDEX blasts through its 50-day Moving Average UPSIDE! Index composed of 10 global Gold & Silver Funds - portfolios containing SEVERAL 100 mining FIRMS:

(Mon Sep 29 1997 19:20 - ID#26793)
STEVE-PERTH: No problem, it will be posted. While you were away we were down in the 23's for a few days but not down the 10% I am using as the start of a Dow selloff.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 19:20 - ID#18970)
Ted: What do you think of the White Metal Jr. Reason for advance given as declining stks while true which is news older than my grandmama. What gives?

(Mon Sep 29 1997 19:23 - ID#390214)
Wage inflation
US Airways passenger service employees
Copyright  1997
Copyright  1997 The Associated Press

WASHINGTON ( September 29, 1997 7:04 p.m. EDT )
-- Thousands of US Airways ticket, gate and reservation agents voted
Monday to unionize. The airline said it would challenge the election.

Of the 8,772 passenger service employees eligible to vote in the
mail-ballot election, 4,773 chose Communication Workers of America
to represent them at the bargaining table as they seek their first-ever
contract with the carrier.

The move makes the agents the fifth -- and largest -- set of US Airways
employees to unionize, joining pilots, maintenance workers, flight
attendants and transport employees.

"We're the only nonrepresented group within US Airways ... we have
suffered many concessions that other groups have not had to endure,"
said Tim Yost, a Pittsburgh airport gate agent. Yost, a 20-year
employee of the airline and an organizer of the union effort, said his
fellow employees have endured vacation loss, pension cuts and no
wage increases.

"What we wanted to be able to do is sit down and negotiate a contract
with management," he said.

Arlington, Va.-based US Airways issued a one-paragraph statement
after the vote, promising to "comply with all legal obligations stemming
from today's election ... while it pursues its legal challenge to the
National Mediation Board decision ordering a rerun of a previous

The union lost an election among passenger service employees last
year by 280 votes. The National Mediation Board invalidated that
election, citing misconduct by the airline.

In the rerun election, only those employees on the job as of April 23,
1996 -- the cutoff for the first election -- were eligible to vote again. At
least half of those eligible had to vote for the election to be valid.

According to Monday's ballot count by the board, 77 employees opted
for other unions and 156 votes were ruled invalid. The 3,766 ballots not
returned by Monday were considered "no" votes.

Under federal law, CWA must represent all 10,000 US Airways
employees that fall under the passenger service class -- those who
secure reservations, handle tickets at airports or assist passengers in
finding their gates.

Union organizers hailed the vote as the largest private-sector union
victory in at least a decade and suggested that it could trigger a union

"These are knowledge-based workers, not traditional organizers of
unions," said Richard Bensinger, national organizing director for the
AFL-CIO. They're "people who haven't looked at unions in a decade."

The acknowledged costliest carrier in the industry, US Airways has
taken significant steps in the past four years to trim costs, with many of
those moves directly affecting ticket, reservation and gate agents.

In the past three years, passenger service employees have lost an
estimated $22,000 each as the airline chips away at vacation,
pensions, sick days and wages, CWA spokeswoman Candice
Johnson said.

By JENNIFER ROTHACKER, The Associated Press

(Mon Sep 29 1997 19:28 - ID#390214)
Equity inflows
...running out of fuel....
NEW YORK, Sept 29 ( Reuter ) - U.S. equity funds took in an estimated $443 million in the three days ended September 25,
for a monthly rate of $3.1 billion, according to fund tracking services Mutual Fund Trim Tabs.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 19:35 - ID#364147)
@ WW
WW: Who knows what gives with "junior"....I've given up trying to make rational sense of market least my ABX hitched a ride!! a storm blowin and expect to lose power right before MNF starts...Elf:ya gettin a itchy trigger finger yet with CDE....

(Mon Sep 29 1997 19:37 - ID#57232)
Donald: I can update the XAU/gold ratio to today ( 9/29/97 ) , but it will take me a few minutes. I just found that I have a fax file I can create with these graphs ( black and white only ) . Can you handle .qfx or .rec fax files?

(Mon Sep 29 1997 19:39 - ID#26793)
Wow! S&P worried about the ability of Dipsters to pay their home equity loans. "If economic or business conditions reach unmanageable levels..."

(Mon Sep 29 1997 19:41 - ID#270116)

Today's action in silver was no doubt a combination of many forces but certainly a large part was due to the big technical funds jumping on board. The next few days will be crucial. If we get a large retracement then it is likely that the rally will stall for a good bit of time ( weeks, months ) . If this is the real thing ( a powerful bull move reaching double digits ) then the consolidation should be brief or non existant. If those that are not in now are able to get in below $4.90 they will probably regret their purchase. On the other hand if it just keeps inching higher the game will be on for real. Given that we had such a strong move but in a very orderly fashion, no real spikey action, things look very good indeed. If the accumulation which has been going on for the past several weeks had a goal of selling to the technical funds, then we should have seen more two-way trading towards the end of the session. As it was, things were rock solid. This leads me to believe that the if there are any players that have built large positions they may be out for some serious fun.

Using other commodity markets as a model for what happens when their is a real supply shortage, there should be very little in the way of major pullbacks in this market, if in fact the effective bottom of the barrel has been reached.

Tommorrows inactivity by the Fed should embolden more players. Since the real power behind a market like silver lies in the ever expanding amount of liquidity available to 'play the game' the greatest fear for the market is the choking off of this liquidity. While a 25 basis point rise in the Fed Funds rate will not materially change change the short term liquidity equation it will have a large effect on the psyche of those investing in the market as a potential hedge against inflation.

If the stuff keeps heading higher over the next few weeks look for the bond market to begin caving in. Perhaps we will get the same setup as in 1987 after all. Rising commodities, falling bonds and a stock market which ignores all. It would be fitting if the stock market survived the September - October time period only to be destroyed soon thereafter.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 19:42 - ID#390214)
Currency bloodbath continues
The Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit fell
heavily yesterday, depressing other Southeast Asian
currencies and prompting forecasts of more gloom
for the region.

The rupiah fell for a fourth day, losing as much as
3.6 per cent to 3,223 against the US dollar, while
the ringgit dropped as much as 2.2 per cent to

(Mon Sep 29 1997 19:44 - ID#338452)
To AuAG: Strad: All:

So, how was it in the pits with all that excitement? Neat?

Strad: You're suppose to take that cookie and give it to your son so he can place it into the VCR !

All: As noted earlier, the communications problem will only get worse when the market starts to fall and the rush for the exit starts. With the trading collars, lack of communication etc. I forsee a very long drawn out downfall that will be a death of a thousand cuts. PERFECT for the "STUFF" !


(Mon Sep 29 1997 19:48 - ID#386276)
Tit for tat at

Is this a sign of things to come, re Y2K chip failures.
The sky is falling, the sky is falling.

I have heard that if the company, against which they are listed, is taken over, then the issuer does not have to honour the call.

Funny how the OZ market has been flooded with warrants in the last 3 months. Over 120 been recently listed. I think the Co's that are listing them can't lose. Be it that the market turns down, most of them will expire worthless. 90% of all the recent listings have strike of 1 to 2 years, but the strike prices have been set at exceedingly high prices. They have been very good investments for the last 6 months, but when this market turns south, they will become nothing more than paper.
I am refering to the call warrants on anything not gold.
IMHO. I think that gold call warrants and equity put warrants will do lots better.
There has been a recent listing of put warrants, expiry '99. These babies are what I've been accumalating. They have high strike prices and are very cheap. Great risk/reward. So long as there's no takeovers!
This is not a recomendation just my opinion.
Buyer Beware!

(Mon Sep 29 1997 19:51 - ID#26793)
JTF: I am using WinFaxPro. I just took a look in the fax file. All my old faxes have a .FXR or .FXD extension. What you did last night was OK. An update is not necessary for one day. Do you think more is missing?

(Mon Sep 29 1997 19:57 - ID#386276)
Who knows what news before others!
Globex 6:50pm
SPX down 150
NDX down 600
Only early in the night.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 19:58 - ID#390214)
Wage inflation
Wages and salaries, the largest component of income accounting for about 60%, jumped 0.8%
after a revised 0.1% gain in July. All the shift was in private industries, given a gain in the workweek
and in average hourly earnings in the employment report. The rise in wages was augmented by trend
gains in dividends and interest, and rents and transfer payments, and might have been higher.
The two-week UPS strike was seen cutting $2.5 billion from wages in the transportation sector
but the Commerce Department did not quantify the overall effects of the strike. ( An additional $2.5
billion in wages would have boosted the wage gain to +0.9% and the overall income gain marginally.
There may have been offsetting hiring and overtime in other industries, however, so the overall
effect is not quantifiable ) .

(Mon Sep 29 1997 20:04 - ID#215208)
End of quarter blues?
If you scroll back to the chart I posted at 15:03 you will see that silver has taken a real hit ( 10%? ) in the days following the end of the last 2 quarters. Anybody know why? Will the factors that caused this be in effect at the end of this quarter ( Weds-Friday this week ) ?

(Mon Sep 29 1997 20:18 - ID#347332)
TO All:
Anyone with thoughts on CCO ( CAMECO CORP ) ?

(Mon Sep 29 1997 20:20 - ID#386276)
A must read book.
The richest man in Babylon by George S Clason.
I love to give copies to all young people as presents.
The cover is a nice gold cover.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 20:21 - ID#386276)
A must read book.
The richest man in Babylon by George S Clason.
I love to give copies to all young people as presents.
The cover is a nice gold cover.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 20:28 - ID#263259)
Investing, not trading
Well, Howard Phillips, the AI guru is still long on FDPMX and FSAGX. And I've not seen hide nor hair of LGB since gold didn't come crashing down the end of last week and the Dow only finished up 4 points plus change for the week. I guess if he's vamoosed I won't be able to tell him that I'd gotten into SSC before he did, and lower too. I finally thought of a riposet about his comments on astrological investing. It may be merely one of many techniques to quiet the babble of the left brain so the intuitive right brain can give us information.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 20:36 - ID#252312)
Donald: I've got the updated graph, with all of 1995,1996, and 97 to today. The dates check against my earlier one, but this one uses world gold, not the london close. I can fax it to you, but I will have to post you on Kitco in about an hour -- the "real boss" has an errand for me.
I am not sure I know exactly what a double bottom is, although I can recognize a head and shoulders. What I see on my graph is a fairly slow crescentic rise of 2 to 2 1/2 month period with the lowest point end of April at 0.27, the next crescentic rise bottoming at abour July 10 at 0.28, and the next rise ( the current one ) bottoming about Sept 16 at 0.29 ( Peutz favorite day! ) . Each bottom for the last 6 months has been fairly sharp, and higher than the last one since April. Technically, it looks more like a rally than a bottom to me. I will get back withyou on the hour.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 20:38 - ID#270116)

Went to the grocery store this afternoon and saw the OJ was on sale. Half gallon of not from concentrate Florida was $.99

Getting near time to load up on those March calls.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 20:39 - ID#26793)
"The consumer credit industry is out of control"

(Mon Sep 29 1997 20:46 - ID#227238)
Mooney: If you're leering from between the fence pickets; I just received your latest email but never did receive the one sent last week. Hope problem resolved soon.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 20:49 - ID#347332)
TO All:
Can anyone recommend a web site where I can find quotes
on equity options/LEAPS ? CANADA-STOCKWATCH for example.
The webmaster never responds clearly. To me anyway.
Thank you in advance

(Mon Sep 29 1997 20:49 - ID#426220)
LBMA EXPOS: PART 4 (September 29, 1997) A Collective-Mind Analysis Compiled by Red Baron
London Bullion Marketing Association is best described as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Daily gold trading NEARLY TWICE South Africas annual production:

(Mon Sep 29 1997 20:50 - ID#272206)
@sweltering CA
D.J., D.A., J.T.F., Donald:

I'm very long on SSRIF ( SSO in Canada ) and am up 44% since last week. I'm looking to sell out tommorro before the FMOC announcement unless SI has already crashed by then. Any idea who is buying SI? Which funds are buying silver and why? Cheap hedge against AG's rate increase? No way will rates increase tommorro unless missing data has been hidden from the markets. The only buyers I can figure out are asians scared of further currencies panic or possibly fund managers cognizant of large equity position liquidations - maybe by their kin. What gives, pundits?

(Mon Sep 29 1997 20:51 - ID#18970)
@NE/Donald/TED and other Conservatives
Now that the big boys have become overextended in high promotional high interest rate loans to creditors they knew were high risk ( so they charged them exhorbitant rates ) they want Congressional protection by reforming the bankruptcy code. SOCIALISM LIVES for some.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 20:52 - ID#252132)
@ Similarities:
Donald: If you have access to Barron's weekly, take a look at the Journal Of Commerce ( JOC ) chart along, next to it, the CRB chart. Note that both show bottoming action in late April, l997, followed by the July higher low and last weeks low. This pattern of April, July, and Sept higher lows is similar to the Weekly XAU "line" chart based on each Friday's close. On this XAU "line" chart, THE low was April 25, l997. Point I am trying to make, these three charts fit in with you XAU/Gold Ration Chart also....dah, hope this makes sense. Yauger's XAU/Gold Ratio PATTERN since April, l997 is the same as the JOC and CRB chart pattern in Barron's. Amem. : )

(Mon Sep 29 1997 20:55 - ID#25588)
Savage - The support levels i have for the S&P based on a weekly chart are 775, 625, 550 these are all approximate. As far as a time, if this market doesn't drop by mid November we will go into a broad trading range of about a 1000 Dow points that will last about a year. If you didn't read my post from Sy Harding's market letter a couple days ago, go back and copy it and hang it on your wall. Thanks for the note I'll answer your other questions by e mail.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 20:56 - ID#227238)
( About MIke Sheller ) : If someone will post a suitably framed portrait of Kitco's House Astrologer of record; we might all take a moment to simultaneously prostrate ourselves in a spirit of genuflection ( noses must touch floor ) , in front of same and also blow a suitable number of raspberries in LBG's direction as well. ( grin thingy on the latter ) ...... Cheers on the former, for some great calls in the past few weeks. Silver being only the latest. Congrats Mike!

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:02 - ID#25588)
XAU - The xau should top tomorrow or Wed. between 107 -107.50 then trade down under 100 over the next couple of weeks.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:04 - ID#257148)
i am not a number i am a freeman
223 Yes, the attempt to stop the babbling right brain, darned logic can get in the way of the hunch born of calm intuitive knowledge of the sole ( sic ) . ;= ) Was that your reference to The Prisoner a week or so again. Where is number 6?

Mike [dont confuse me with fundamentals ROTFL:- ) ] Sheller's gastrological prognostications are important market info, imho, as are the remembrances and flashes of brilliance that appear from time to time here as thoughts bounce around.. I am still thinking my way through exactly what the XAU/Gold spot ratio is measuring, and have thoroughly enjoyed the exposition Donald, JTF CC Thanks ;- ) )

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:05 - ID#364147)
@ capebreton
WW: I don't consider myself a conservative......

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:07 - ID#252127)
(cco) Cameco and (cco.cco) Cameco Gold

Both are Canadian listed stocks.
Cameco is one of the biggest uranium producers and has some interesting gold interests. It has % interest in the Kumtor gold project which, I believe it is in former Soviet Territories or the motherland.
Kumtor is slated to be a big gold producer, but one needs a huge pair of cahones to invest for its gold interests alone.
Cameco's low cost production of uranium in Canada is another story and may be worth the bet, even at Canadian $51 per share.
As for Cameco Gold????

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:14 - ID#386276)
Does anyone here know how
rate as a data providor. Who's better, cheaper.

And another Y2K url

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:15 - ID#252312)
Donald: I can fax you the current XAU/gold graph. Incidentally, did you know that 10/1/97 ( tomorrow ) is a New Moon? I have read that Silver trends with the moon, though I have not yet looked for a pattern. I will wait on Kitco till you post me

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:16 - ID#227238)
Here is the daily chart for this weekend's new pull toy, XAU/GC. ... Actual drawing of the next line segment will be on date change. ..... It's software. Hell I don't know why it works the way it does.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:17 - ID#252132)
@ P.S.
Postscript to last: The Weekly XAU line chart based on the weekly Friday close, the CRB and JOC charts in Barron's commodities statistics area, the XAU/Gold Ratio all exhibit the same PATTERN since late April, l997. The Weekly Xau Line chart is the bottom line on Yauger's Gold/Ratio chart. Please note that this line shows the XAU bottoming in April, l997 and NOT July, l997 as most believe. A "daily" XAU chart does show the XAU bottoming in July. Hope everyone is now confused. : (

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:22 - ID#194311)
Is that silver reading for real?
Seems like battle of titans or just bug-eyed computers.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:25 - ID#252312)
To all: What's up with Kitco? I can't get on! Almost as bad as it was during the day.
Donald: I think the XAU/gold, or XAU/GC ratio is the better this way up, rather than gold/XAU,etc. This way the number follows the gold stocks -- up on the indicator follows rising gold stocks. Also it is easier to think of selling on tops rather than bottoms ( at least for me! ) .

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:26 - ID#364147)
@ ocean storm
Man, is it blowin+raining er what....lights are flickering....have already lost the satellite signal ( NO MNF ) ....having trouble accessing Kitco and Dec. gold has turned south ( down .20 ) ...what the hell is going to go wrong next???....

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:27 - ID#257148)
@ more homework
Nick 19:48, have been observing similar writing of call warrants on this side of ditch too. The most interesting were calls on the "new" TENZ ( index of 10 leading NZ stocks ) So called up for prospectus, when i asked broker whether these implied MG were bearish, got a confused grunt and had to be shifted several rungs up chain before I got a lame delta option spread justification. The prospectus arrived, sure enough the gorgeous graphs ( remember how i like good charts ) plotted the TENZ from 1988 to present. Missing out that oh so important 1987 crash so the plot looks like a smooth ride up to riches.
Orig prospectus was binned after recent floods, I do recall seeing several red lights reading of the conditions under which the options may *not* be exercised on exercise Date and recalling I'd have to go back to the original Deed of issue to check that up, if i had any inclination to invest in the darned things at all...which I didn't...just a market signal to me.. like unsold business newspapers...;- )

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:28 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

This Martian is 100% LONG

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:28 - ID#252132)
@ Out Of Here:
Got to do battle with this "cold". Hot bandy at the local pub plus a glimps of the 49'er game might cure the problem. Nite all.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:29 - ID#348286)
@WHat Rally?
Kitco showing silver down .22 in Asian trading, Gold down .60 .
THis will be very unimpressive if silver cannot hold todays gains overnight.
Certainly won't inspire to run out and load up on PM's yet.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:29 - ID#220291)
@ EB
Where are YOU dude??

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:36 - ID#194311)
Stand and Deliver
Okay shorty hand over the metal or you die.

Bill Buckler
(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:38 - ID#257234)
The $A Gold chart is an absolute CLASSIC! On the long-term ( from 1987 ) chart it hit a ten year low about a week after the RBA announcement about the Aussie Gold sale and has now breached its downtrend.

The short-term ( P&F ) chart has the best formation I have seen for a long time, since at least late '92 early '93.

The $US chart is still in it's downtrend, it's true. But if the chart was of anything but Gold, I could say with 95% certainty that it has bottomed and with 80% certainty that it was about to stage a good upmove.

Gold is gold, though, it's the "political metal". I would not be diving into gold-backed paper ( derivatives etc. ) on the long side at the top of a trading range. But physical Gold itself? That I would be buying to add to "insurance" positions. It will take an extraordinary feat of gold-bashing to get the price back down below its recent lows.

One thing about tonights FOMC meeting. In any era prior to the stock market boom of the past three years, a Fed Board of Governors who maintained in public that inflation is not a problem would be taken off to a padded room and relieved of their belts and shoelaces. The most obvious sign of inflation is the stock market itself and, on top of that, money supply numbers are soaring. Finally, there is no instance that I know of when the Fed has raised the Funds rate just once. Yet the one 0.25% hike was more than six months ago, back on March 25. I can hardly wait to read the analysis if the Fed doesn't raise tonight. And
if they do, that'll make for even more interesting reading. Truly, we live in fascinating times!

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:39 - ID#224149)
Mike Sheller-Mars,Pluto conjunction on friday.What are your thoughts ?Blow-up in the Middle East or non-event?Gold is this Window dressing for end of quarter ? I still think the big moves will come in late January 1998.Happy trails And Good Luck.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:41 - ID#252312)
Impossible to get through -- Kitco silver graph down 0.02 cents, Kitco textual silver down 0.22 cents one is wrong.

Yellow Jacket
(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:45 - ID#4289)
Batten the hatches!!
TED: No storm in New Jersey, but Kitko has been more annoying than cold drizzle all day. Must be the heavy load of accesses today. Well...can't beat the price. Bart deserves whatever slack he needs while he fixes it.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:46 - ID#232412)
enjoying my handle
My handle is finally something to be proud of.

Mike Sheller: Way to go on the predictions my boy...looks like we got the breakout that you predicted!

Watch out for the FED OMC meeting, I am looking for a 1/4% rise which Greenspan will use to "send a message" to the market, and to Congress which is looking at loosening their spending restrictions.

any help would be appreciated

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:54 - ID#347332)
TO Ted:
49ers are winning

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:55 - ID#364147)
@ Yellow Jacket
With the "big bucks" we're payin Bart,you'd think he'd get this damn site fixed...and pronto!...My patience is runnin thin!!...

(Mon Sep 29 1997 21:58 - ID#252312)
Ted: Aren't we more like Hoboes, getting a free train ride. This one seems to be a local and is stopping at all the crossings!

(Mon Sep 29 1997 22:01 - ID#364147)
@storm center
Thankx Mikey!!....JTF: where the hell is the express??...

(Mon Sep 29 1997 22:01 - ID#376400)
Hale-Bopp comet
surrender all ye who enter here, we have taken over Kitco so that you hard money folks will be homeless...

(Mon Sep 29 1997 22:07 - ID#255284)
@ bound for glory
This train don't carry no rustlers,
Whores, pimps, or side-street hustlers
This train is bound for glory,
This Train

Woody Guthrie

(Mon Sep 29 1997 22:08 - ID#215208)
Mysterious blue line
Donald - A better URL for the XAU/gold ratio chart is Here they have an explanation. Basically, his conclusion, similar to yours is that this ratio can be used to determine when the gold stocks are overvalued relative to the price of the bullion, and vice versa. He assumes that a "normal" ratio is 3. The blue line is the result of dividing the XAU/Gold ratio by 3. Thus a number greater than 1.1 indicates the XAU is in overvalued territory, and vice versa. This indicator was at a low of .85 on July 7.

New ideas are hard to come by!

(Mon Sep 29 1997 22:09 - ID#411192)
in sack-o-tomatoes
I'm thankful that 1 ) gold is yellow, 2 ) the earth is round, 3 ) existentialists are wrong, 4 ) this keyboard ain't made out of anti-matter, and 5 ) I can get through to Kitco when the markets are calm -- sometimes.

The Niners are doing the funky chicken -- 17-0, 6:11 left in 2nd qtr.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 22:12 - ID#347332)
TO Jack:
whats the gold production forecast? Hedging ? if you can.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 22:16 - ID#403267)
Ted, Bears had Syracuse "turtling" last night preseason, daughters teachin' me Hockey: ) Mike S, great call, congrats, since we already have kitco kings can you be queen?; ) All: URL for London close 3 year candle, I see blue sky blastoff ( as spot is already 5.10 ) , what do you see? Note, I am still in TA school!: ) You will have to click on chart style ( left ) to get candles

(Mon Sep 29 1997 22:27 - ID#286410)
Can someone explain or have any insight to the Australian
Market during the first three hours. I have been watching
for months now, spot gold continually goes down. I have
seen other posts ask the same question, but no response. I'm
starting to dislike that time every nite. Thank you in advance
for any comments regarding this.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 22:31 - ID#215208)
kolorado - If I qualify as a pundit we are all in trouble!!! :- ) ) Really gave me a chuckle. All I can say to your question is that I don't know why silver got hit at the beginning of the last 2 quarters, and if I was holding nice profits, I would duck out tomorrow and wait to see what happens next week. If all was calm, things looked OK, and I still felt good about silver, I would buy on the next dip and get back in.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 22:36 - ID#228262)
on silver
Bart, I like your frame design but I can't get in the discussion group from there. I only succeeded once.
With all the excitement about silver today, has anybody noticed that we are close to resistance, RSI is at 83% and Commercials are shorting the metal with gusto?

(Mon Sep 29 1997 22:39 - ID#252127)

I just discovered that Cameco also trades in the US under the symbol ( ccj ) and that Cameco Gold is a wholly owned entity, the symbol for Cameco Gold seems strange, perhaps Cameco plans to those float shares. I believe that KUMTOR will remain with the parent company. Here are some releases for Cameco Corp.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 22:40 - ID#364147)
@ Roebear
Go H.Bears and keep is grrrreat!

(Mon Sep 29 1997 22:44 - ID#388231)
Take another look at Kitco's silver graph

(Mon Sep 29 1997 23:00 - ID#263259)
Free at Last!
Aurator: You stated "Yes, the attempt to stop the babbling right brain, darned logic can get in the way of the hunch born of calm intuitive knowledge of the sole ( sic ) . ;= ) Was that your reference to The Prisoner a week or so again. Where is number 6?" Well, three questions for the price of one? My name change was prompted when I realized that I was now a prisoner of my stocks. With 100k of investment paper money tied up in the precious metals market I realized that I was no longer the free man named "Neophyte". And number 6 was already taken by 6pak. My plan was to average in on dips to the bottom. Intuition said to stay in and logic said to bail out and buy lower, but I'm neither quick enough nor smart enough to be a trader. I chose the left brain way, others might call it astrology and others might call it intuition or Zen or soul. The bear market has turned and 223 must now fight the same battle against selling all the way up to XAU 250. It's kind of like the feeling you get when you're sailing in light air and you've just GOT to trust your instinct about which little puff of breeze will grow and which will die away. It helps to know the weather patterns, which is why I come here to listen to the old salts. And if perhaps there is another month or six or twelve of calm, well, I'll keep buying on dips until the breeze comes up.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 23:01 - ID#194311)
Stock Still on the Tracks
On with that train of thought.....
anybody else get the feeling that the Dow is like a disbelieving calf caught in the headlights of the oncoming freight ( metal ) train, it's obvious what it should do but trapped in the glare it is frozen. Should it go forward, should it go back, confused it just dumps a lot of bulls**t and waits for the inevitable.....

(Mon Sep 29 1997 23:06 - ID#252127)

At the bottom of most releases from the url supplied is the symbol TSE:CCO; hit it and a release about Kumtor Gold is also available.
Excite tends to give more pertenent coverage when one checks all the countries where a particular stock is traded.
I believe that they estimate in the order of 33% of 500,000 ounces for next year and beyon. The STANS are not good news, as anything can happen in those places.
For Cameco Gold, it's early to make any conclusions - that is if they trade.
Remember; Cameco is a major uranium producer and should be considered as such - in the first place.

Yellow Jacket
(Mon Sep 29 1997 23:07 - ID#4289)
Visa #0123-4567-8900 exp 01/00
TED: Be careful, or tomorrow you'll see a sign upon logon asking for your credit card number to pay for the repair bill. ALL: Still curious about anyone's opinion about what no O/N rate rise by the FOMC might mean for precious metals.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 23:14 - ID#333303)
DONALD and others: On the silver ratio, it is not really important if one prefer to use the XAU/Gold ratio or the inverse ratio, what is importantg is to realize that the XAU is no longer representing the same number of ounces as it was x years ago, therefore invalidating the ratio as a measuring tool.. It is no good to compare a gold reserve ( XAU ) that is year after increasing to one oune of gold... here is no way you can have good comparables... and this has nothing to do with the value of the US$ but more with the reserves ( and therefore market capitalization ) of each of the XAU' components. I submit to you that the XAU between 90-100 was as cheap at the recent July low than it was at the 1992-93 low when it reached 70. Examine and study ABX to reach that conclusion.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 23:23 - ID#252312)
RJ: Was it you that posted the URL with the XAU/gold ratio? I'm flying blind tonight. Slow train and I can't see the posts.
This graph allows me to relay Donalds question about the trend in gold stock prices to the technical experts on this web site. He is wondering about a double bottom. I am wondering if we have a XAU/gold bottom on April 20, with a subsequent rally, with later bottoms reaching new highs. I am concerned about gold stocks getting overheated with respect to gold, especially because I believe the ECU/EMU crowd will try to keep gold down until the unveiling of the new European currency. If I read this graph correctly, I would expect the gold stocks to rally about a month, fizzle a bit for a month, completing another 2 - 2 1/2 month crescentic cycle. If gold does not go up by the time of that next bottom, we may have the return of the bear as Oldman, George Cole and RJ have warned us about.
RJ: Have the floor traders bit yet on gold or silver?
Sure is hard posting blind!

(Mon Sep 29 1997 23:29 - ID#252312)
CC: Is there a way to compensate for this? I suspect our DJ/gold ratio has the same problem, because of the complicated process that the DowJones uses to adjust the average when one stock is added, and another removed. Ideally, the Dow Jones should be a continuous linear measure of assets with time since its beginnning, but I don't it is. Many of our indicators are imperfect.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 23:36 - ID#252312)
Yellow Jacket: I thought the idea was to get Ted's Visa card number and give it to Bart. Can I try using your number? I like the expiration date. Looks like an excellent card to use if you want to travel in time just before the turn of the century. Any century, in the past or future.
Good night all !

Mike Sheller
(Mon Sep 29 1997 23:37 - ID#347447)
Don't look back
JTF: The XAU is heading toward first significant resistance at around 120. It will rise the same depth of units that the "head" in its triple bottom Head & shoulders pattern shows from the neckline that has just been broken. Am I making sense? ROEBEAR: You are dragging me dangerously close to an abomination...but what the hell - thanks for the "coronation," Sure, I'll be queen for a day.

Yellow Jacket
(Mon Sep 29 1997 23:45 - ID#4289)
CC, JTF: As I see it, the problem is swapping companies, and stock splits. Even on the Dow, if it weren't for those factors, the result would be linear with time. Thus, if the XAU hasn't suffered those changes in the time period measured, the ratio should hold.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 23:53 - ID#252127)
I wonder if the Mining companies are being taken for a ride; that is along with their shareholder's

When reading bullcrap like this and consider the low gold price, you have to wonder who is controling the gold price.

(Mon Sep 29 1997 23:55 - ID#273168)
It is suddenly soooo obvious. BURNED for soooo long we are blind to what is happening. I have posted on BGO for weeks - little response - that's ok - we are all busy. BUT .........last weeks low 3.625....closed today at 4.50 . The point is it aint just BEMA. They are mostly all going up - something is happening and you better pay attention. YOU SAW the XAU close today - quit trying to analize - its happening. THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND has been used by the bull market enthusiasts for the last seven yrs. DONT be asleep at the wheel when the TREND in GOLD is ( FINALLY ) your friend. WAKE UP _ you are just all gun shy - I can tell by reading the posts of the last 24 hrs. GO BEMA AND ALL THE OTHERS TOO AND CONGRATS TO THOSE OF YOU WHO BOUGHT IN THE LAST 10 trading days. You are ALL ahead as of now.

Yellow Jacket
(Mon Sep 29 1997 23:55 - ID#4289)
CC, JTF: Perhaps the biggest complication for the ratio would probably be the wanton issuance of shares to obtain capitalization and fund mergers that mining companies have traditionally resorted to. Dilution affects stock price without regard to fundamentals.