Are we up?

Yes. You are truely "El Solanum Grande"....

Testing

Have I landed in Kitcoville???

I've landed at the bottom ( of the postings ) . Everything appears upside-down. Yipes!!!

Spud Master: We are not UP. We are Down. My posting are at the bottom now. Help!!!

No one around?? Must have all been sucked into Kitco's Cyber-vaccumn. : (

We're back. The email messages informing everyone of that will be going out in about half an hour from now, so hopefully things will get back to normal.

What you're looking at as an interim solution to getting this site back to normal. There's still stuff that has to put back, and you might have to spend a bit more time scrolling, but this is our "Hey, it's better than nothing" effort.

The software design is radically different and so with all new changes you can expect new problems. Don't be shy to point out by email any technical difficulties you might experience.

Now that we're back it's time for somebody to get the gold rally started again.

Gold down a couple of bucks. Bonds setting somekind of new lows, and so are my postings. : )

Are we up and working?

BART: The postings are coming in "at the bottom". Is this part of the new changes??? I'm getting dizzy standing on my head. : ) )

Ok Bart, how much filthy lucre does yer want to have this board post new messages at THE TOP?

I don't know if anyone noticed but our little rally fizzled *at the exact same time* that we tuned out. Bart, consider this a sign of *just how important this site has become to the gold market*. Its either a conspriacy or a strong predictor of the market. I expect a fantastic rally will begin at the very moment your discussion group went live again.

( in all seriousness ) Thank you for all your efforts. Hope we can keep this an exciting place in exchange for your investment of time and CN$. Thanks, again.

Bart,
Thanks for all your efforts to get us up and running. Hear ! Hear ! on your last comment on getting the Gold price working next.

Welcome back all my disoriented friends. Now that we are upside down is gold also? Need a quick market read, please, anyone!?

ALL
Ctrl Home will get you to the beginning! I like the new format!
Now if someone would only post about the GOLD market?

and contro - end will get you to the end: where the lastest posting is located. ... for gold check the XAU, it gives an indication of what gold doing. My DELAY quote on gold says it is down $2.00. : (

September Kitco Posting Stats - sort of PM related? :- )

Disclaimer - counts may not be 100% accurate ( pasted/embedded posts may count twice ) - but hey, they sould be pretty close.

POSTS:
Total: 9300
Daily Average: 310
Highest per day count: 367 on 19970911
Lowest per day count: 109 on 19970926

HANDLES - ( mostly case sensitive )
Total approx 540
Daily average: 68.6
Highest daily handle count: 109 on 19970924 ( ID DAY? )
Lowest daily handle count: 39 on 19970927

Top ten prolific handles:
736 Donald - Also holds single day post record of 45 ( 19970919 )
371 Ted
346 6pak
333 nomercy
236 LGB
213 Who Cares
202 Mike Sheller
201 Auric
200 Nick ( all "Nicks" contributed here )
184 Eldorado

I would have posted a chart ( bmp ) - but can't figure out how...
Gold luck to all, CMH aka ID#346140

Ctrl End go to bottom of the page ( Newer post )

Hello. Anyone there?

Does anyone else get the error 404 when they check on the "more" on last post? ?: (

Yaaaahooooo! We're back.
Many thanks to you, Bart. Don't forget to ask for a pay raise.

No problems re 404 on selecting more. Donald, DA GSC anyone URL me a story on gold price action today, please.

I don't think the gold rally is dead yet. The Fed is confused as to the reasons for the 'expanding' economy and no inflation. Labor markets are, 'very tight', ( their words ) and they are at a loss to explain it all. The answer is simple. People are spending! Cheap imports are holding down 'retail' inflation. Food and energy, well that's a horse of another color.

On second thought, I guess I'm just a stupid goldbug, who, like a broken clock, is right twice a day... Folks, I believe in inflation! It's here, and the big boys know it! You can quote all of the gubment no's you want, but check out the prices of new vehicles, homes, land, etc. The stuff that we all need. O.K. I'm off of my soap box now, ( withdrawal symptoms you know! ) Back to lurking. One final note, silver demand is up in Japan for FILM!

ID#346140 -- I got that error when I tried to access your post.

Sometimes you don't know what ya got til its gone! Wow, I didn't realize how much I enjoyed this place. Thanks Bart! I really feel like I've been in the dark. Donald, nomercy, and all what's been going on in the world?

test

Geez , I stop posting for a few days to be a "lurker" again and the site completely crashes as Silver & Gold skyrocket! Now the PM's are way off today, and the site's back up. What irony....

ID#346140 ( Error 404 ) -- I got that error to when I tried to access your post. What's even stranger, is that this is my second post regarding that. The first one seems to have gotten lost in cyber space???

Thanks Bart!

LGB -- The gold market players 'need' to know what we're doing so that they can 'plan' effectively... ( As in, take our money ) :- ) )

September Kitco Posting Stats - sort of PM related? :- )

Disclaimer - counts may not be 100% accurate ( pasted/embedded posts may count twice ) - but hey, they should be pretty close.

POSTS:
Total: 9300
Daily Average: 310
Highest per day count: 367 on 19970911
Lowest per day count: 109 on 19970926

HANDLES - ( mostly case sensitive )
Total approx 540
Daily average: 68.6
Highest daily handle count: 109 on 19970924 ( ID DAY? )
Lowest daily handle count: 39 on 19970927

Top ten prolific handles:
736 Donald - Also holds single day post record of 45 ( 19970919 )
371 Ted
346 6pak
333 nomercy
236 LGB
213 Who Cares
202 Mike Sheller
201 Auric
200 Nick ( all "Nicks" contributed here )
184 Eldorado

I would have posted a chart ( bmp ) - but can't figure out how...
Gold luck to all, CMH aka ID#346140

Testing to see if Bart's holodeck is online. Am I the first one here?

Panda, your comments are right on. Am long on gold, silver, and diamonds. Inflation is for real as M3 is 9% growth last 12 months. Real inflation is monetary inflation. Monetary inflation eventually always causes overal price inflation. Though price inflation can often be just supply and demand functioniong normally. Today may just be a small correction in gold. If the shorts stay in & price of gold goes a little high they will get squeezed. This will cause a torrid rally in this sector.

My DELAY December Gold Futures quote shows gold down $3.10. Anyone have LIVE quotes on gold???

Hey ID 346140, re your dual post, glad I missed being at the "top" of the "Most prolific" stats list! Now if I could just get off that "10 Most wanted" list at the post office........ Yeah Panda, me thinks that there are some "big" players waging war on each other in the PM's..GO Platinum!

Hem: The lst shall be last on the new posting system. :- )

Panda: ( We be back in business! ) . Do you see 330 basis Dec. as critical to success or failure of this 'rally' - so called? And oh BTW, welcome to the "stopped clock" school of investing. It is always successful, if one is able to live longer than one's assets.

Panda, I feel that the rally is continuing. Just checked one of my stocks, Minefinders, MFL on Vancouver. It had 210 bids and only 10 asks a moment ago. It has had steady buying pressure on a volume of 154,000 shares traded so far today. This and other good gold stocks are experiencing the same action. Gold should move higher to confirm.

In the channel chart, I set the channel widths for silver and gold equal to the widths during the downward trends. It appears that these new channels are meaningful, at least for the near term. If true, it means gold is going to be pretty boring until some event kicks it into an upward trending channel.

Whoops! It doesn't appear that we can post graphics at the moment. Silver hit the top of the channel trending upward at a rate of 45%/year and is stalled there. Gold hit the top of the channel that is almost level, maybe trending slightly upward at 5%/year.

Bart - Are graphics returning??

Never fear about the gold rally lads and lasses. I have just dumped another $6M into a gold mutual fund. Hopefully this is not just another case of dollar cost averaging lower. The DOW is slinking lower, obviously having difficulty maintaining such a lofty posture. Like George S. is wont to say, buy on the dips, gents, don't be a dip.

LGB:
I wish to offer the humblest of apologies for being the first to double post in the new format ( I guess somebody had to do it ) . "But I got error 404 before... wah wah" :- (
Over & out - lurking in silence again. CMH

Can anyone display in full text mode, or is it just me that can't?

Didn't know I was addicted to this site until someone took the punchbowl away! Bart thanks for the efforts.

Yes, Bart! Glad to see we're up again!

Great to see Kitco back. That was fast, Bart!

US Treasury debt as reported at http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm is up $US 188.335 Billion for fiscal 1997 ( to Sept. 30 ) .

Interesting that the debt reported there is up 32 Billion in the past two days. All that and long bond yields back down to 6.3%.

Back again. Looks like market has trouble staying up without kitco. Thanks for the hard work Bart.

Cyb Jeddak, Earl, LGB -- Yup, I comitted myself. Whether it's to an insane asylum or gold stocks, time will tell...

I base my 'gold religion' of the following obsevations; I have been stuck in long lines at the CompUSA ( computer store ) stores. They have been getting 'unexpected' amounts of business on normally quiet nights. They are short staff. Granted, these are just kids behind the registers, but it is a labor shortage... My TV blew up recently, literally! Ran in to the same problem, to many customers, not enough staff... Now, as to whether one purchases goods with cash or credit, is irrelevent for this discussion. A good is purchased and someone had to make it. Hence, there is demand. As for recessions/depressions, this is what my trading account is used to demonstrate. :- ( Hence, I am now a position trader. I've 'grown'. :- ) )

GOLD-EAGLE beams MONTHLY SPOTLIGHT on 1997's exemplary market commentary to recognize analysts. To see biographical sketch of those spotlighted & awarded studies, just CLICK HALL OF FAME plaque at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html

Bart: Nice save!!! I may be the only one, but I LIKE the scrolling this way. This gold rally is coming in waves. Time to paddle back out and watch for the next set. Somebody post the WSJ article which says that Oppenheimer raised their ratings on ABX, HM and NEM from outperform to buy. I saw it this morning. HM projected to go to $24 in 12 months. BBML

it has been well known that there are insufficient workers to keep the
system properly funded.
http://www.economeister.com/curracct/971002ca/green_fv.htm

How do you like that, KITCO goes down and Gold reverses it's rally.
Now that we're back, LETS GET ON WITH IT......

Hi Tort!....Anyone else notice the long bond hit its low yield of the year today and the utility index soared again...John Murphy of CNBC had a good segment yesterday correlating utilites+ gold shares yesterday ( sayin they went in tandum ) ....interest rates tell ALL...GO YANKEES!

Tort: Since my company is Hershey I at times get my M&M's mixed up. Does 6M=$6,000. or $6,000,000. If the latter, you may need a good driver who appreciates humor, gold, goldbugs, and is familiar with security, high master rating at firearms etc. Also very trustworthy, .9999 fine references available!: )

Does anyone have any information about the Austrian CB's selling of 58 KG
of Goldl. I haveing been hearing some reports from 680 news in Toronto regarding this and other CB selling.

Fed Holdings of US Treasuries Grow Faster

During the 12 months ended June 1997, the $70.1 billion net purchase of US Treasury
securities by foreign governments lagged both the $107.4 billion of 1996 and the $78.1
billion of 1995. A strong dollar exchange rate has all but ended the net buying of Treasuries
by foreign central banks that is intended to boost the foreign currency value of the US
dollar.

For the 12 months ended June, the 13.4% year to year advance by foreign government
holdings of US Treasuries was joined by a 7% increase in Federal Reserve's holdings of
US Treasuries. Since year-end 1994, the average annualized growth rates of those holdings
of US Treasuries which are most highly correlated with the world's supply of dollar liquidity
were 17.9% for foreign government portfolios and 4.9% for Federal Reserve holdings.
Together, the sum of US Treasuries held by the Fed and by foreign governments ( including
their respective central banks ) grew by a very brisk 11.9% annualized since year-end
1994.

So rapid a rate of growth by this measure of liquidity over such a lengthy span should help
to sustain a brisk pace of global economic expansion notwithstanding Southeast Asia's
economic woes. Compared to the 3.6% average annual rise of 1995-1996, the latest 7%
year-to-year increase by Fed holdings of US Treasuries enhances the odds favoring a Fed
rate hike by the end of 1997. Among private investors from the rest of the world, their net
purchases of US Treasuries summed up to a record $190.3 billion during the 12 months
ended June 1997. After averaging $20 billion per year during 1990-1994, the net buying of
US Treasuries by private investors from abroad jumped up to $122.7 billion in 1995 and to
$141.2 billion in 1996. Private foreign investor purchases of US Treasuries should plummet
once the yield advantage of US government securities is significantly narrowed.
http://lp-llc.com/cents/kasriel.shtml

Roebear, the $6 was in thousands not millions. I only have millions in my dreams. If I were there I would not be here whipping out trusts and wills; I would be having someone do this for me. Hi Ted, glad you are back at computer again.

Hello The Clan. Now, I'm just going to lurk & learn- totally out of my depth with you boffs!

Have been extremely busy going into all the recommended sites, and printed out nearly a ream from Schippi's Wall St.site and gold eagle -thank you all for your help, and hope I'll end up being a star pupil...

Nick. How's the champagne hangover? This place could certainly grow on one, and I congratulate Bart on a fine site.

Aurator Give up your day job, and start writing! Your posts are fabulous, and I'm honoured to be part of your mythology...I do have the start of a cavalry [3 Lipizzaners] but no bull as yet. I'm working on it......

Donald. Thank you. Find the Fibonacci numbers intriguing. Fred Crookes has again been on radio, I believe..still causing consternation here in Jhbg. He works with the figure .618 [if that helps] Ancient History being one of my passions, I think the existing chaos is similar to the period leading ro the downfall of the Roman Empire. All too big for the flimsy structures.

George. Thanks for your note. I hope you're right! I'm heavily into property, and if that all goes well will be able to get in on Krugers by the end of this year.

Thanks again and good luck to you all.

flux and chaos have given the gift of
pre-cognizance for all who care to "see."
look at the pace and direction of everything
around you. weather related flux, kitco/server
chaos ( again ) , isp constant flux, emf ( SOL ) , egf ( hb ) ,
moral chaos, governmental chaos, volcanic flux,
tectonic chaos ( temblors ) , international winds-of-war,
millenial bs, mass and mob psychological mindset ( definite chaotic ) ,
death of stock-market-paper-tiger....food flux, terrorism,


damned lot to "see"....and sooner or later, ALL will have
no choice but to see....the increase in flux and chaos
can be attributed to the years of "peace and expansion." ( stock bull )
nature and physics now dictate "years of war and contraction." ( stock bear )


"for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction."

can you see the real me, can you, can you?----- the who

the ssm has acheived apogee and will be linking with
passing neutrinos for tea with sollog.

read http://www.webj1107.ntx.net/Sollog/tnt/97-902.shtml
for YOUR up-link to the kotn..... sollog...modern-day-
nostradamus....

cherokee!; ) modern-day-dotssmfatimm.........

Bart: Glad your up and running again.

The new gold bull is real. This pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity. The gold stocks held up extremely well today in the face of bullion's $2.60 drop. Bullion probably will fall a little more before this correction is over and the XAU should retreat to 103-105.

The next up leg should begin in a few weeks. Bullion may get to the $350 area and the XAU to approximately 120 before that move peters out. Longer-term we are going much higher, but best not to expect too much too soon.

BTW, Oppenheimer and Co. has issued buy recommendations on several gold stocks including HM and NEM.

Anyone: Opinions -- do we still have a bull market in gold and silver, or did we all get faked out? Is "up over" and "down under" now inverted too?

U.S. stock fund $3.3 bln inflow in two days-survey
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/01/y0004_y00_16.html

JIN mentioned something about this:

http://guide-p.infoseek.com/Content?arn=a0018LBY437reulb-19970929&qt=%2Bgold%2Bsale&sv=M3&col=NX&kt=A&ak=allnews

The reduction was due to market nervousness over currency woes in Asia, where several countries have come under
speculative attack and have been forced into de facto devaluations, Gazeta said.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/02/z0009_35.html

Brazil's gloomy trade figures have been a key concern among analysts and investors.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/02/z0009_44.html

The fact that so many on this thread are ready to turn tail and run on the first reaction reinforces my bullish stance on the gold complex.

Drat! Here I was looking forward to driving a stretch and the cute little cap! I would of course have insisted on real gold braid for the uniform of course! I'll be saving Barts bandwidth and beggaring my broker for a week or so, going to the mountains of New England to hike and view the Golden foliage. No markets, no quotes and no work but I will be on the watch for gold nuggets at every stream and pass: )

There is no buy signal for bullion yet. Action for tomorrow: none.

"+Central+Bank" search through Yahoo
http://search.main.yahoo.com/search/news?S=1&p=%2BCentral%2BBank&n=10

"+gold+sale" search through Yahoo
http://search.main.yahoo.com/search/news?S=1&p=%2Bgold%2Bsale&n=10

Does anyone have any news on the proposed reporting requirments for derivaties ( sp? ) . I know Greenspan & the Corporations don't like it but many ( including the SEC ) think the shareholders have a right to know. If mandated, what effect, if any, will it have on a company's financials and the value of its stock?

October 2, 1997
St. Louis Fed president Melzer to resign

NEW YORK ( Reuter ) - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Thomas Melzer said Thursday that he will leave the U.S. central bank at the end of the year to pursue new career challenges.

Before joining the Fed, Melzer, 52, was an investment banker with Morgan Stanley & Co. The Board of the St. Louis Fed will appoint a committee to find a replacement for Melzer.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/FED-MELZER.html

Latest from Jerry Favors: http://www.marketweb.com/commentary/JF1001.HTM

Upside Down or is it Downside Up, just how we like it Down/Up here, it's all relative really...unless your spinning then there's no ambiguity... .all observer's agree on rotational sense, something Einstein didn't quite finish up/down on.
Thanks Bart, if it's not too much trouble perhaps we could put the "Add Comment" Down under to save all the scrolling..I don't care that much really...just a suggestion.
As I said back in late July, Bottom's Up lads! Time for a new Gin agin.

October 1, 1997
Scotiabank buying Mocatta Bullion and Base Metals

TORONTO ( CP ) - Scotiabank is taking over the gold bullion and metals
market division of a British-based bank, a move the Canadian financial
institution says will establish its global leadership in metals trading and bullion banking.
The bank announced Wednesday it's buying Mocatta Bullion and Base Metals. Founded in 1671, it's a division of Standard Chartered Bank of the
United Kingdom.
Toronto-based Scotiabank said combining Capital Markets' presence in
the North American base metals market with Mocatta's worldwide metals
operations will establish a new, full-service global metals dealer.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Scotiabank-Mocatta.html

October 2, 1997
Martin says Bank of Canada not tightening policy

OTTAWA, Oct 2 ( Reuter ) - Finance Minister Paul Martin, speaking a day after the Bank of Canada raised rates, said the Bank of Canada was not tightening monetary policy but just trying to maintain the country's economic boom.

"We are not dealing here with monetary tightening," he said in Parliament after a challenge from leftist New Democratic Party member Nelson Riis over why the central bank had raised rates.

"What is happening is that the governor of the Bank has simply eased off the accelerator a little bit in order to maintain the tremendous economic recovery we are seeing and the very strong job creation."

Martin came under fire on Thursday from the New Democratic Party and the Canadian Labor Congress for allowing rates to rise while the unemployment rate is still at nine percent.

When Martin was asked on Thursday if he saw a need for further rises in short-term rates, he avoided the question.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/MARTIN-SAYS-BANK-OF-C.html

Bart, Thank you from all us lurkers for getting the sight up again.
I missed you today ( though I usually wouldn't say so ) .
Also, thank you to all you folks who do post. Your unselfishness
in sharing knowledge and opinions is wonderful.

October 2, 1997
Dollar gains on yen as Japanese economy still sluggish

NEW YORK ( Reuter ) - The dollar rose against the Japanese yen Thursday as a key Japanese official expressed concern about his nation's weak economy and the United States chose not to to cite Japan for unfair trade policies.

Japan's minister of International Trade and Industry, Osamu Watanabe, told reporters his country's sluggish economy was recovering but warned against expecting hasty improvements."We have not changed our assessment. However, we can't be too optimistic and will continue to keep close watch ( on the economy ) ," Watanabe said one day after the central bank said business confidence in Japan's economy was weakening.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/DOLLAR.html

Dow/Gold Ratio 24.27......XAU/Gold Ratio .324

I agree with those who think the rally in gold is intact. All we have done in the past two days is come back down accross the upper Bollinger band. These bands continue to expand. There maybe still a day or two of a correction left, but then we go go to $348 basis December. Look at the chart ( with Bollinger bands ) at http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/fstwin22.gif

TO Mr. BART KITNER
I tried the french version of your gold forum while you were deep in coding and all it offered was the listing of your C++ program. Just thought you might want to know.
Thank You

Gold and Bonds give the Fed a vote of "No Confidence."
http://www.lp-llc.com/cents/kasriel.shtml

October 2, 1997
Small jump in rates could spook consumers

TORONTO ( CP ) - Few economists believe this week's increase in interest
rates will stall Canada's turbo-charged economy. But with another rate hike expected before year end, consumers might hit the brakes and prove them wrong.

The problem is that most Canadians have only recently signed up with the
economic glee club, and with household debt at record levels, the
economy's health could be more fragile than the pundits believe.

But Tom Delaney, an independent financial adviser on Bay Street, wasn't
buying that line. "This is the banks taking advantage of the situation to increase their ( profit ) margins," he said.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Interest-Jitters.html

Trying again with "No Confidence post.
http://www.lp-llc.com/cents/kasriel.shtml

George Cole -- Your post regarding 'fear' in the mining shares is quite interesting. Don't take this in the wrong way, but there is this big part of me that says, "Cut and run, NOW!" BUT! There is this little voice that says, "Dig in, stay around, and keep a couple of Dollars around for the index craps game... This could get very interesting very soon." Consider the move that we had in the XAU and the HUI, along with the amount of time that it took to move that distance. Explosive would be a good description of this market. I wonder who IS afraid at this point, the longs or the shorts? One last thing to consider, most of the mining stocks/indexes are/were nearing the 1993 levels, how much cheaper could you get? I know, it's a dumb question. Zero is the lowest price, right? :- )

The Fed has embarked on a deliberate effort to tighten.
http://www.lp-llc.com/cents/roach.shtml

Fed tightens http://www.lp-llc.com/cents/roach.shtml

Are we back up and running again? I was getting nervous, gold and silver begin to rally and Kitco goes down....damn stock market people must have sabotaged us...

Tort r.e. 14:59 post: Is that M as in Million? or M as in the Latin abbreviation for thousand? If it is million, I'd like to know which fund before the price goes up tomorrow : ) LGB: LGB: Hmmm, what happened to that gold crash last Friday? I missed that one. May have been asleep. All: I got to figuring. You know if only half the pimply faced dewds in the Western Hemisphere decided to get their ears pierced and wear just a single tiny earring each it would absorb maybe 10M ( illion ) ounces of the yellow metal. Maybe somebody should come out with a certified fractional sized bar in the shape of an earring.

Tort: How weird! the site is upside down. You've already answered. Forget my offer to be your personal money counter. You're going to have enough trouble paying the cheauffer, er, chauffer, er driver!

S&P lowers ratings on 6 Korean banks in Kia Bankruptcy.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/97/10/02/y0004_1.html

De-lurking here for the first time SE Asia...Interesting, with all the
problems in the SE Asian markets, it seems that they are thinking that
control and hiding things is the way to go. The SET ( Thai ) exchange has
had quotes available on the internet for some time, now the have
announced that they will shortly be eliminating this information.

Sounds like they are following the lead of the Malaysian PM in
going against free markets. Here is the exact wording:

"To leave more room for other information. Real-time quotation will no
longer be available via the Internet, start from October 15, 1997."

The page is at: http://www.set.or.th/info/quo.htm

George Cole, all: Glad to hear that some believe the gold rally is real. When one of my favorite investment options goes down for 1 1/2 years, it is hard to just look at the technicals and believe that we have something that will last for more than a few days! Good to be back on line, even if inverted!!
Any thoughts about A Greenspan's next move -- can he flood the international markets with dollars, and tighten up at home? Does he need that magician who made the Statue of Liberty disappear as a consultant?

JTF: Answers to your Bull Market question.
Gold bullion, close to bottom, Bull not confirmed.
Silver bullion likely bottomed, Bull not confirmed.
Dow and stocks in general, close to top, Bear not confirmed.
Gold stocks, still likely in downtrend, within months of bottom.
Silver stocks, close to bottom, Bull not confirmed.

From Ed Yardeni:
COMMENT: The Japanese 10-year bond yield just fell to a record low
1.79%. This is a very disturbing deflationary signal coming from the
world's second largest economy, which is likely to weaken further over
the rest of the year. Forty percent of Japan's exports go to Southeast
Asia, which is falling into a region-wide recession. In the US, cheaper
SE Asian exports will push inflation still lower. Bond yields could soon
fall below 6%. The Dow could rocket into record territory ( 8500-9000 ) by
January. Dow 10,000 by the end of 1998 is possible. Then....

PUBLIC: The third issue of THE Y2K REPORTER is available. Don't count on
Bill Gates to fix the problem for us. In fact, Microsoft expects some
mainframes to fail. "Embedded" chips are likely to be a bigger problem
than noncompliant mainframes. Despite the horrible consequences of Y2K
failure, IT companies are reporting that business is slow. My advice:
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
http://www.yardeni.com/reporter.html

For my birthday wish today a renewing of the silver rally tomorrow.

Tomorrow is the "big one",the Employment Report....Consensus estimate is for 325,000 jobs created....

An economic commentator argues that deflation is the real enemy and the FED should be cuting rates. Is the gold market starting to anticipate this scenario now?



By WILLIAM GREIDER
October 01, 1997


When Optimism Meets Overcapacity

An edge of anxiety has crept into the celebration of America's supposed triumphant economy. Maybe because it's
autumn. Manias and panics in the financial markets typically occur in October or November, for very human
reasons. When the days are growing shorter, investor optimism may shrivel with the leaves.

Or perhaps the new uneasiness stems from a creeping recognition that deeper disorders are stalking the global
economy -- deeper than the business cycle. A friend notices increasing references to the "O word" and the "D word"
-- overcapacity and deflation. Neither term is in the usual lexicon of economic observers. They hark back to earlier
eras, when booms mysteriously turned into busts.

Early this year, an article in The Wall Street Journal announced that the globalized economy had entered a "new era"
of stronger, trouble-free prosperity. In August, the newspaper revised the outlook. Actually, The Journal reported,
many industrial sectors are burdened by dangerous levels of overcapacity, too much potential output and not enough
buyers. This glut, it said, promises ugly shakeouts ahead -- failing companies, more closed factories -- if not
something worse.

For the same reason, a cover story in The Economist summed up the global auto industry this way: "Car firms head
for a crash." The industry will be able to produce nearly 80 million vehicles by 2000 for a market of fewer than 60
million buyers. The imbalances create downward pressure on prices and reduce return on sales. More factories must
close, more large companies will merge or fail.

The Financial Times reported that, thanks to the deluge of investment, even a hot market like China is now stuck with
overcapacity, from cars to chemicals to electronics. A couple of years back, every multinational rushed to build
plants there and catch the wave of China's rising consumption. Now factories, not consumers, are overabundant.

Some respected Wall Street observers are now expressing concern, as the glut of productive capacity drives down
prices and, eventually, profits. James Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, noted a general glut in areas as
diverse as semiconductor plants and aircraft factories. "There are too many hotels in Phoenix and there is too much
manufacturing capacity in China," he wrote.

If a general deflation does occur, whether sudden or gradual, it will generate a negative cycle of falling prices and
wages, depressing output and financial values, from real estate loans to stocks and bonds.

William H. Gross, the respected managing director of Pacific Mutual Investment Company, which manages more
than $90 billion in bonds worldwide, now pegs the risk of a general deflation at 1 in 5 over the next several years.
"My deflationary fears are supported by two arguments -- exceptional productivity growth and global glut," Mr.
Gross said. He cites twin causes: real wages, both in the United States and abroad, cannot keep up with the rapid
growth of new production -- that is, there won't be enough demand to buy all the excess goods. And emerging
economies create aggressive new players eager to outproduce and underprice everyone else.

Why did the euphoria suddenly dim? The abrupt stall-out of Southeast Asia's booming young economies was a
consciousness-raising event. It began as a financial crisis in Thailand, then swiftly spread to Malaysia, Indonesia, the
Philippines. ( The Asian debacle resembles Mexico's, except this time Japan is financing the bailout. )

The visible disorder that gets official attention involves finance -- dramatic currency devaluations, overexposed
banks, the sudden flight of foreign investors. But the underlying cause, as some acknowledge, is overcapacity.

Thailand is a classic illustration of how financial markets can get ahead of reality and destabilize the real economy of
producers and consumers. Bankers and investors are so busy lending and investing and bidding up prices that they
don't see that the new factories they're financing may not be able to sell their output.

The typical explanation for gross overcapacity is that misguided managers and their bankers got carried away. That
truism does not explain much. Here's another explanation: The overcapacity problem is driven by globalization itself,
as it interacts with technological innovations. The fierce cost-price competition leads companies to take measures --
cutting labor costs, modernizing production, trading jobs to gain access to hot markets -- that both erode the
worldwide consumption base and create excess output. As established companies struggle with the imbalances, new
competitors enter the market. South Korea intends to be a major player in autos and semiconductors. So eventually
does China, then India.

All this does not prove, of course, that things will fall apart. In the 1890's, when similar deflationary conditions
endured for years amid industrial revolution, the economy continued to expand, albeit with periodic banking crises
and horrendous recessions. It was not until the late 1920's that supply-demand imbalances crashed the world
economic system.

Today's deflationary pressures in the industrial system will inevitably interact with the financial system. When
investors discover that the boom in corporate profits cannot continue indefinitely, they will sell stocks and bid down
prices, a disaster if they do so all at once. Last winter, Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve,
courageously tried to tamp down the market euphoria. His jawboning failed, but he has since backed away from his
own stern operating principles for monetary policy.

The economy, Mr. Greenspan used to preach, cannot be allowed to grow faster than 2 percent to 2.5 percent without
risking inflation. If unemployment falls below 5 percent or 6 percent, he warned, workers will win real wage
increases in tight labor markets and thus generate inflationary pressures. Now he is permitting both to occur. For
good reason: prices are still declining.

Why are these flush conditions not producing inflation? Because with the global overcapacity, too many goods are
chasing too little demand.

If so, then the reflation of wages becomes a necessary part of any Fed strategy to back out of the danger zone. Wages
have finally begun rising again in real terms, but only modestly. The so-called Clinton boom is distinctive from
earlier cycles because, despite five years of economic growth, family median income has still not recovered from the
last recession.

It's no secret how consumers cope: they borrow to keep buying. Household debt has reached an astonishing 91
percent of disposable personal income, compared with 65 percent in 1980, according to the Financial Markets
Center. No one knows at what point the buyers will be tapped out.

Consumer debt is being assumed on punishing terms. Nominal interest rates have declined somewhat, but real interest
rates -- the true cost of credit calculated by nominal rates discounted for inflation -- are still extraordinarily high,
because as nominal rates subside, the price level keeps falling, too.

Will central banks have the wisdom to declare victory and back off now that inflation is approaching zero? In other
words, the Federal Reserve should be cutting interest rates now, not keeping them steady, as the board did yesterday,
or raising them again, if it wishes to avoid the dark possibilities of overcapacity and deflation.

The politics of accomplishing this is treacherous. The central bank has to develop a new monetary strategy that is
more generous to wage earners, buyers, borrowers and business enterprises -- and that will require reduced returns
for financial assets.

Mr. Gross, the California fund manager, believes financial markets will accept the end of the "super bull market,"
once they understand the fundamentals. As he explains, investors have enjoyed a hidden annual bonus from
disinflation for 15 years. As the Fed pushed down price levels, the real value of their wealth steadily increased.
That's over. Instead of 15 or 20 percent real returns, Mr. Gross expects 6 percent returns ahead. I suspect many
investors will resist and pressure the Fed to keep interest rates high.

Nonetheless, the central bank has to begin explaining things to its political constituents in the bond market and
banking. We are, indeed, in a "new era," but not the one that Wall Street is celebrating.

William Greider is the author of ``One World, Ready or Not: The Manic Logic of Global Capitalism.''

TO PETER post 16:24
concerning ( CB AUSTRIA Sells GOLD )
58KG of gold is not much. Is that a typo on your part?
Comeback.

Panda - "Cut and Run"? I'm still sitting on kegs of dry powder!! I
tried to bottom-fish IMPAY for the last month - but didn't get any. Gold
is still a political metal and his legions still look like the favorites
to me.

D.A.'s comments about cheap money being used in different ways then
feeding this DOW Bull are worth thinking about. Made me think enough
to get some 9 month silver calls.

Another path which hasn't been explored here lately is the Tiger Fund's
PAZ7 contracts. I read where the Russian/Japan agreement run out in
December. Last year the Russian's stopped shipping in December. If
you include the cheap money available to a hedge fund, there could be
alot of interesting things happening in December?

B. Ebbers prints 30 bil. http://www.usatoday.com:80/news/comment/colhenr.htm

One of the mantra's of this bull market has been anything that lowers interest rates is bullish for stocks. But we may soon reach a point where this no longer applies. When lower interest rates are seen as a signal of possible deflation and falling profits ahead.

When the stock market no longer rallies on drooping rates -- watch out below.

Donald: Thanks for your insight - most concise I've seen. Silver bullion is clearly stronger than gold, and driving gold. If the silver bullion rally tanks, gold will immediately follow. My impression is that Stock market earnings are weakening, and that some investors don't know it yet.
What we need to do to figure out what might happen next is to stimulate one of our Kitco gurus to post about how A Greenspan might pour dollars on the international markets without inflating at home. Is there a way he can do this without worsening the market bubble? This point may be very important, because our A Greenspan is an Ayn Rand "gold bug" in his former life. He might try to manipulate the gold price. Can we address this to any particular Kitco guru?

One thing bull markets always do is climb a "wall of worry". Judging by the worry reflected in posts since Bart got Kitco up and running again, there is certainly a pretty steep wall facing Gold right now.

Spot gold intra-day bounced off its 200-day average yesterday. It is presently sitting about $US 1.40 above the confluence of the 100-day average, the downtrend line, and the top of its post July trading range.

$US - $A charts are now updated to reflect today's action at
http://www.the-privateer.com/twogold/twogold.html

Compare the situation with the $A chart and the situation with the $US chart. The $US downtrend break has NOT been taken out. What we have now is a situation where $US Gold is testing its 3 month resistance ( $US 330 ) to see if it is now a support point. That's what usually happens when resistance points ( and $US 330 was a solid one ) are breached. If spot Gold can remain at $US 330 or better, and then turn and go higher than its previous high close, then the breakout is confirmed.

If the bottom on $US Gold is in, and the charts say it is, then the present attitude towards Gold is exactly as One would expect it to be.

Hey--what a GOOD morning it is to all of you--We're back again!! Glad to see you've all come to join us "down under" with your posts. What's this about the Nicks only ranking #9 on the posting frequencies!!Will have to do something about that!!

Now what's this I hear from some of you tucking yer tails between yer legs and wanting to run after a wee little correction. Folks, this is what is SUPPOSED to happen when sleeping beauty wakes from such a long slumber!!!! I sold most of my gold shares on the big move up and I GUARANTEE ya I'm buying 'em all back again on this correction. Isn't trading great!!! Gold share xxx can go from 2 to 4 and you can make 6!!!

Hang in there. Buy on the dips. The "rational exhuberance" shall return!!! G'day from down under.

Sorry, the URL of the $A-$US Gold charts is http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/twogold.html

PS - this is not a double post!

Russian scientist backs claim of 'suitcase nukes'

October 2, 1997
Web posted at: 6:06 p.m. EDT ( 2206 GMT )

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - A respected Russian scientist and former adviser to President Boris Yeltsin said Thursday Moscow secretly developed nuclear "suitcase bombs" under KGB orders in the 1970s specifically for terrorist purposes.

Alexei Yablokov, who served on the Russian National Security Council, contradicted statements by Russian officials who denied the existence of the weapons and he buttressed claims that many of them have gone missing.

"I am absolutely sure that they have been made," he told the House Military Research and Development subcommittee.

The issue arose when former Russian National Security Adviser Alexander Lebed alleged that as many as 100 portable bombs, made to look like suitcases, were unaccounted for since the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union.

According to Lebed, who has agreed to testify before the House committee later this month, the devices have an explosive capacity of one kiloton -- the equivalent of 1,000 tons of TNT -- can be activated by a single person and could kill as many as 100,000 people.

Yablokov said he had spoken to the scientists who worked on the weapons and so was certain of their existence.

But he acknowledged that the former Soviet Defense Ministry might never have known about the so-called "atomic demolition munitions" because they were developed for the KGB spy service under a secret program.

The bombs, according to Yablokov, were designed "only for terrorist purposes" and were to be used by specially trained units to destroy key targets such as power plants during wartime.

"It was the KGB, not the Ministry of Defense that ordered it. They were never included in the official list of Soviet stockpiles," he said.

U.S. officials have not denied the existence of such weapons, but have cast doubt on claims that some may have gone missing since the end of the Cold War.

"We have not seen any hard evidence of suitcase-sized nuclear devices unaccounted for or falling into the hands of terrorists or rogue states," FBI Director Louis Freeh told a separate congressional hearing Wednesday.

But Rep. Curt Weldon, the Pennsylvania Republican who heads the House subcommittee, said the threat was serious and urgently need to be accorded higher priority by the Clinton administration.

"No one in the West, and few in Russia, know for sure whether dozens of small nuclear weapons, ideal for terrorist use, are unaccounted for and perhaps in the wrong hands," he said.

While Weldon denied he was tring to back the Russian government into a corner or embarrass Moscow, he blasted officials for their "repeated denial of what we know to be reality in fact" and called for more candor.

Without embracing Lebed's claims of missing suitcase bombs, Sen. Richard Lugar said the shortcomings of Russia's nuclear accounting procedures were well documented.

"The Russian inventory system is so antiquated and inefficient that the Russians do not have an accurate count of nuclear weapons or materials," the Indiana Republican said.

Lugar told the panel Russia's nuclear records were mostly handwritten and scattered around the country.

To all: Are there any gurus out there that know how one can pour dollars into the foreign markets ( doubled IMF reserve requirements ) , and prevent dollar inflation at home? What tricks does our A Greenspan have up his sleeve?

Major trend changes always are marked by great skepticism in their early phases. Many people just can't believe long-lived trends will ever end.

Bart.Thank you for restoring the service...missed it much.

Internationally acclaimed Technical Analyst has performed another insightful study destined to be called "THE Homestake Mining Prophecy." His analysis exudes incisive thinking, and is expressed with great clarity:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/fisher1001.html

I am going to quaff a beaker or two of Moosehead in a toast to Bart for
getting us back online. Thanks Bart.

Uris H.

FDPMX and FSAGX down less than 1% with gold down $3. Lately, it's been a 1% drop in each of these funds for every $1 drop in the spot price. Today's action is encouraging. ( 1 ) Is tomorrow make or break for this baby bull? and ( 2 ) Is it time to buy hard metal and keep it in the closet until it breaks triple digits in late 1998 in anticipation of Y2K???

It was tough this afternoon without Kitco. Rumor has it that we got so confused and disoriented that several goldbugs went back to smoking, and one of us filed for divorce. Then realized he wasn't even married.

Any Kitcoites headed for PK??

Captain Bill and Nick: Right on! Wise words from down under.

Panda,I agree with your earlier post.I think both
longs and shorts are nervous...Should be real volatile.
I ,also, am gonna toast Bart tonight

To all: Have you seen the new movie, "The Peacemaker"? Pretty scary, and fairly realistic stuff about what might happen in New York City if a personal nuclear weapon got loose. Good thing we have those geostationary satellite scanning aperture gamma detectors. A city in the US is likely to be a prime target.

Hey Bart:

THANKS .... Withdrawl was getting extreme .....

Takes a Canadian to bring an American ISP to it's knees eh!
Wouldn't have happened in Canada ya know! ( except maybe near TED's abode HAHA ) !

Thanks again

TTFN

George Cole: "Many people just can't believe long-lived trends will ever end." ....... It isn't that many of us can't believe they will ever end; rather, it is that, we are never completely convinced that this is the moment. ....... For the traders like Nick and others, it makes little difference they go with the flow and that is how it should be. ....... 'Tis better to be a trader than a 'take a stand' investor. IMO.

LURKER: More: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/02/z0009_49.html

Nick: I'm glad to hear that you were able to jump out with gold stock profits. Some of us like myself ( no matter how hard I try ) don't have the time to watch the market closely, and are watching our gold stock investments weaken. The next several weeks will give us the clue we need to confirm the gold stock rally -- which currently is being driven up by the rally in silver bullion prices.
Our biggest wild card is what A Greenspan will do to prevent the embarrassment of a rally in gold stocks/bullion -- one thing that presaged the 1987 stock market crash!

GSC + Cap'n Bill: Good comments on the reaction in gold price. Bill, the last URL gave a '404' error. Glenn: What's happening in the pits ?

Sorry I'm late Bart THANK_YOU for getting us back up, had the shakes all day untill I could lurke again.

Donald, Oldman, Roebear, George Cole, Puetz, and "ALL" THANK_YOU also,
back to behind the scenes.

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Weak hands selling. Still 100% Long

Lurker: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/02/z0009_49.html

Donald, Lurker: Isn't it interesting the influential British bankers are against derivative disclosure -- Could this have anyhing to do with the LBMA??? Has anyone read that A Greenspan is in favor of full disclosure? Surely he does not want a repeat of the SE Asia fiasco!

Schippi: Your hourly FSAGX is great, as always! I haven't bailed out, because the technical pattern is clear. Your graphs show this better than the intraday gold stock charts, because they are a composite, and better than the intraday XAU graphs, because one can only see one day at a time ( without a lot of work, or expensive software ) !

Try again: http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971001/politics/stories/derivatives_1.html

All: Words of praise are seldom adequate to extol any offering by BB Fisher. It's always worth the effort to "set the parking brake" and leave the kids with Grandma, while savoring his comments. This latest is no exception. In short, it's uncommon insight, in an all too common world. ..... Besides, his formal presentations are the only time he feels unconstrained to write in lower case only. ( grin thingy )

Nice to be back eh!
OK, Will the new futures trading of the DOW ( I believe it starts Monday ) really wreck havoc on the DOW ( as we presently know it ) ? Will this IYHO have an effect on the amount of shorts that will force investors away from the DOW to the "Stuff" ? Opinions please gentlemen ...

TTFN

Torfeasor: It's great to learn that you are buying on dips. Please let us know when the next $6 million goes in!

Once Again ... Thank you for the great stuff
Much appreciated ...

TTFN

Donald, Lurker: I think the problem with derivative trading by central banks is that they cannot ( or won't ) back out at this point. Is it like being a little bit pregnant? What worries me is that the process that was set in motion when central banks began derivative trading may not end until the whole thing blows up world-wide. Please tell me I'm wrong.

To all: The day the central bankers agree to full disclosure of derivative trading will be the day we can relax. Until then........

Earl: Let me second your comments about BB Fisher's essay on Gold Eagle. Frought with wisdom.

FRONT: Dow futures. They have been reporting on CNBC that it will greatly increase volatility. I suppose there will take a while for the players to learn how it works. It's not the kind of thing I would do. Are you looking forward to a Bungee Monday?

BBFisher's comments on y2k are simply fascinating.
Markets reflect life...Much wisdom!Cheers

Hallllllajuuuula! Saved at last! woooooHOOOOO! Kitco is up just in time to prevent massive withdrawal symptoms. Whew. That was a close one.

OK, so how about those Indians??

Yes! We seem to be up! Bart, We need to do this more often! Just kidding. But I'll tell you here and now that if this site needs some funding in order to pay for better ISP service, etc., then make it so!!!! No one likes to pay out bucks, but no one here wants to do without either! Let's make this site world class, and if that's one thing that is required, then let us DO IT! I will simply say that this site is very very important to many of us and we find that the day just doesn't have the same 'quality' about it without this being here! That's as much of a ThankYou that I even know how to give! That's TOP HONORS!

Scotty.The Indians are alright.Worry for the wagons ( gold
shorts ) .Wouldn't wanna be short now.Cheers

I do not understand the accounting practises in this ville. We have a 5.1 Tln debt increase since 1981. To my calculator that turns in at 315+ Bln per year in treasures/bonds or whatever. Yet we report 190 Bln this year. In fact I do not EVER remember number reported that indicate 300+ Bln in deficit OR sales in bonds. We are told that we are running a surplus when we just printed another 32 Bln to sell. These numbers are just stupid. The FED is buying Treasures. Please tell me what all these sleeping fund managers have taken ( drugs ) to so tranquilize their minds to this non-sense. What next??? At some point the sleepers will awake. Possibly our little spurt is the first stirrings.

Eldorado.The energy here as exibited by the posters
is outstanding.If it takes funding to continue
than ...so be it!Cheers

We be back.................!

Bungee jumping may be just the words for it I'm afraid. As you noted, CNBC has indeed mentioned the volatility they expect. It would seem to allow a "Basket" to be traded either way in a hurry so I would expect that people a lot wiser and more experienced than either you or I will use the ability to "short" the DOW when appropriate rather than just the individual stocks to create shorting situations. If that's the case, would you see "stuff" as suffering or benefiting from such an adventure? Was it easier to move to gold rather than short all the DOW stocks in order to play a lowering DOW? Just a thought ....

TTFN

Roebear, it is true that M means a thousand. But I hope that was in millions as I am in 100% and hope for more buying. Suggets everyone borrow and buy to give me a hand.

Earl -- Re: Your 20:08; You spelled it out properly there! One should not pre-determine where a market MUST go! Always have a plan, yes, BUT, also have contingency plans also. We all like 20-20 vision, but we ALL should know that it ONLY comes when looking in the rear-view mirror. Make the best plans you can and then be deathly afraid that something was overlooked, 'cause THAT IS the only thing that IS sure!

It could be that today was IT for the stocks. It could be that tonight is IT for this slight downdraft in the metals. WATCH carefully! It could be that fulfilling 'obligations'/gaps, may finish with lows formed during the night! We'll see, but those ALSO will be times, if seen to KNOW that a VERY GOOD buying time is at hand!!!! Do not forsake staying up a few extra hours in lieu of this very real possibilty in catching the next low! One caveat: This could all be total horse puckey too. I.E., my own thoughts and opinion at work, so take it as such and only as one of many views, I hope!

It may also prove to be true that Dec wheat bottomed today. We won't know for awhile, but this is where I call it, at least for a short term play. Corn may be a couple more days out.

OJ is OJ and must be played 'very' carefully, but it 'seems' to be in the beginnings of a new revival.

Crude is being 'nice' also at this time. Seems to be obeying support very nicely! Watch out though 'cause a little bit of rise goes a LONG way in the economy and may not be immediately tolerated! Therefore, pullbacks can be expected to happen very quickly!

'Nuff said for now!

Peter, Austrailian CB word is other central banks bought the gold. Rumor is also that Soros bought the gold. Either way it was a knuckleheaded thing to do. With 26,000 gold miners in Australia, a lower gold price means voters out of work. The boneheads at Australian CB say all is well because they have gold production in Australia. But do not the investors own the mines. Peter at some point the dynamics of the precious metals markets is going to overwhelm CB manipulations. Go long the stocks and forget it.

I heard this guy on the radio and I think he's hit the nail on the head. This brave new era is one of DEFLATION and falling interest rates...a la Japan since 1990. Someone here posted that study dating way back showing Gold to actually better during deflationary times than inflation.
In a turbulent flowfield it is the largest longest eddies ( waves ) that are the most powerful and move the furthest. Gold is the biggest eddy in our turbulent market models and as such has the greatest potential for the largest movements. Hurricane Gold winds up...may take while though.

GOLD-EAGLEs September SPOTLIGHT beams on the Oracle of Hong Kong. To read his honored insightful study & Biography, just CLICK on the Hall of Fame September plaque:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/awards/spotlight.html

Allen - Perhaps the missing money is coming from social security. All those Baby Boomers are putting away more money -- could they be putting more into social security? If so, the goverment has more money to reduce the deficit ( until the Baby boomers want it for their retiremnent ) .

RJ -- Have the floor traders started buying gold? Even a nibble? Thanks!

Charts lifted from the Avid site. Notice the dripping shovel on No.2 and Bollinger bands on No. 4. http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Floor/3046/

Here we have EBN gold up a dime and Kitco showing up 1.35 at 21:53! OK, Who's on first? At the same time, delayed BMI shows Dec gold up 90 cents. Does NO ONE know what the current price is? Are the markets SO unstable and volatile that NO ONE knows the 'going rate'? Now I CAN envision the day when they are off by 75 bucks!

George Cole-
I don't know what you base your optimism on. This entire gold rally was short covering. Gold will follow silver higher if higher silver goes. Your individual investor demand is nonexistent. Announcement soon on 200 + metric tons sold by European CB. When the world wakes up one day to see one of the most conservative gold nations on earth has sold truckloads of gold, the price will plummet.

All-
Listen, I sell gold for a living. All I do is trade metals. A bull market in gold would make me delirious with joy, and also make me a ton of $, but the bull is not set to run yet. We need to get through this latest round of CB sales before any rally has a chance of sustaining. For those of you that think I have some secret agenda in my persistence that gold will fall, I am just a lowly gold peddler being forced to play silver and platinum for profits because gold is offering none - except on the short side. When the bull is on, I will shout it from the treetops, meanwhile I don't trust the stuff. This last rally was defensive and had zero fundamentals to back it up.

If the DOW takes a dive or silver puts on a strong rally, gold could reach 350. Absent these developments, as soon as everyone is long, the bears will step in and crush everyone. There will be plenty of time to load up on gold after the next drop, I look to early 1998 for any significant rally to have any chance of self sustenance.

Kiwi: "Gold is the biggest eddy in our turbulent market models....". ..... Please take a moment and calculate the Reynolds number for this fluid system and perhaps we will then divine the future more clearly. ... :- ) .. ( grin thing )

Avid trader now bullish in gold, sets 350 as first target for the move. Last paragraph http://avidtrader.com/opinion/heads-up.htm.

RJ -- In time, you MAY be proven correct, but one leg up in gold does not make/complete a 'run'! There should be plenty more to come! This is only the first leg up that I can see. At least no more than the second, by any stretch of any imagination! Stop saying MUST! Must is simply 'when' it happens, IF it happens! As I said before, let IT play! It'll only burn those who DON'T 'follow' along! Don't try to wag the dog, He'll bite!

Eldo: "Now I CAN envision the day when they are off by 75 bucks!" ..... IF the quote systems are ever off by 75 bucks, you can bet it will never be in our favor. .... I was more optimistic, than that, just a moment ago but then I read RJ's latest. ( grin thing )

Earl: A Reynolds number for the Markets. What a great idea! When I think about the buffeting a plane gets as it approaches the speed of sound, I think of the warning of what is to come. How nice it would be if we had a warning!

RJ : Announcement of German CB gold sale has to be the worst kept secret and and the markets have already discounted it in the price. This is a time when a chart tells you more than the news. Just look http://fast.quote.com/fq/quotecom/chart?symbols=gcz7&time_period=Daily&bars=100?wstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key=&mode=Dai

October 2, 1997
Fed minutes show worry about 'militant' unions

WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - U.S. central bank policymakers meeting in August found no immediate reason to boost interest rates but worried that a two-week UPS workers' strike could foreshadow inflationary wage demands, minutes of their closed-door session issued on Thursday showed.

The Federal Open Market Committee members, meeting on Aug. 19, decided to keep a wait-and-see attitude but stayed wary because the next move on rates -- whenever it comes -- most likely will be upward.
"The members remained concerned about the outlook for inflation," said the minutes of the meeting stated. "They continued to view the next policy move as more likely to be in the direction of some firming than toward easing."

In the past, such rapid growth -- above a 2 percent to 21/2 percent pace seen as sustainable without generating sharp wage and price rises -- was considered so potentially risky that it must be ratcheted down through higher inetrest rates to cool borrowing and spending.

The Fed minutes said one reason that policymakers felt able to keep policy steady was that short-term interest rates adjusted for inflation were "relatively high by historical standards," helping to guard against inflation.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/ECONOMY-FED-FOMC.html

Eldorado -- I would love to see the day that the quotes for gold are off by the daily limits... :- )

Was that 900 bid 975 ask or could it be 975 bid and 1050 ask? What the hell, who would be buying anyhow??? :- ) ( Ans. Very scared people. )

JTF -- It's called the $VIX. Volatility index.

tober 2, 1997
White House confident on "fast track" progress

CARACAS ( Reuter ) - The White House is confident it can muster bipartisan support to give President Clinton special trade negotiating powers and expects the bill to clear a legal hurdle next week, a U.S. official said Thursday.
Thomas McLarty, Clinton's special envoy for the Americas, said the president's personal commitment to passage of so-called "fast track" legislation would ensure eventual approval."At the end of the day I believe we will be successful in terms of passing broad fast track legislation," McLarty told a news conference after meeting Venezuela's President Rafael Caldera to finalize details of Clinton's visit here Oct 12.

Washington remains committed to establishing a Free Trade Area of the Americas ( FTAA ) by 2005, as agreed at the 1994 summit in Miami, he said.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/TRADE-USA-LATAM.html

Earl you have mail

Panda -- There is no way to know what the numbers might be, but perhaps they might be changing fast enough at some time that the 75 dollar I mention might actually be close. Who knows? But if we get these discrancies at 'this' time, why not much larger ones when things get 'volatile'? This IS horse puckey! Who's on first? Where are THE numbers?

RJ: Actually, in "my work" ( I love that pompous phrase ) ...... if gold holds at 330, I opine that it will move to 350 before another serious setback. In my work, the indicators will be overbot, on a monthly basis, with gold at 350 ..... That is of course, only one man's pompous opinion, held only in the likely/unlikely ( hood ) of contravention by exogenous events which have yet to be programmed into my work and which would, should they appear, undoubtedly, move gold at cross purposes to the divine will of all paper yuppie dippers, central bankers, brokerage house commentators and tin horn hustlers of precious metals ( in the greater LA area ) - in this or any other universe one can conjure. ....... Since this post is directed at you, RJ; the last sentence was confected for benefit our greatest fan. Mr. banning. ..... Why would a guy post his name all in lower case? .... anyway ( grin thing )

Just before I providentially head for the hills, RJ I see your comment and I gotta hand it to you, you are probably mostly correct. How's that for commitment: ) Gold may go down from here and certainly will if there is a CB sale, this move was not that strong. Unless you have inside information I am not sure there will be a sale, BUT the spring shenanigans for the EMU are likely to send Gold first down, then UP UP UP! IMVVHO. Adieu, see you all in two weeks, when you will hopefully have forgot what I said...

The DBC server is down. Nothing like reliable high tech stuff. Just remember, if it works, DON'T FIX IT!

For the deflationists, yes it's true that technology is packing more stuff in to smaller spaces at lower costs. Based on this, one could say that prices are falling. My problem is this; The currency is tied to nothing more than a promise. People break promises, forget them, claim they forgot them, or insist that conditions have changed since the promise was made so that it is no longer binding. ( Gee, this sounds familiar. )

Now, if that promise is made binding on a physical thing, then you could have a deflationary problem. Seeing as how it isn't... The only way that you could get a deflationary problem is through the destruction of paper wealth, as in the financial markets. So, short of a massive financial implosion, inflation is the path of least resistance, any way you care to slice it.

Kiwi: I knew it was a great idea. I'm full of great ideas for things that I do not know how to do. Calculating that number is one of them. That's why I thought it was so great. ..... Now, spit on your hands, rub 'em together in insightful fashion .... and commence calculatin'. BTW, honorable mention in the final monograph will be sufficient. .... My attorney will forward details as to type face, pitch, exercise of editorial control and etc.

!!!! I really DO know how to spell 'discrepancy'! Sorry Panda!

Kiwi: BTW, forgot to mention, the name of the law firm is: Solitary, Nasty, Brutish, Short and Tortfeasor, PC. There're a helluva wrecking machine. Note, that Tortfeasor alone, dumped 6 mil into the market today. Chump change for these guys.

Eldorado -- At that point, I will be fondling my precious metalic coins, heretofore referred to as 'dirt' ( from whence they came ) . I'll let RJ worry about the daily price limits and the limit moves up or down as well as, "Is this quote correct?".
:- ) )

Kind of reminds me of the, "Fast market", flags I get from my broker sometimes... :- ) ) ( As in, you're screwed no matter what you do because we really don't have a clue as to what the real price is! )

try this url for sollog------
to know the future-------

http://www.bahnof.se/~wizard/sollog/
or a web search on yahoo or lycos.
he predicted princess diana and twa 800
tragedies, and has a FEW more worth reading.
clinton and the pope are quite prominent
and in big trouble according to sollog, this year.
bad for them, good for gold...........sollog.....
kind-of sounds like gollum from hobbit fame..... ( my preciousss!! )
oh well....sollog --worth reading!

!; ) --------------------------------------------------

Oh, Toto! I...I think we're back in Kansas...except...everything is upside down...!

Eldorado -- I bought a new keyboard to with the system I just put together. The kind with the Window 95 button thingy. It works in Windows NT also, but I swear the keys are slightly smaller or something! The mis-spellings that I catch are unbelievable. Usually, this is related to the fat finger syndrome. The incidence of this syndrome has skyrockted with this new keyboard!

panda -- It'll be One of those prices on the screen, or not! HAR!! Preferably one ABOVE the purchase price!

See what I mean!

cherokee -- You gave an incomplete URL.

Panda: I like the way you think! I'm going to add the $VIX to my indicators I follow. Do you think it will work as an early warning indicator for the market? Any evidence?

try this url for sollog------
to know the future-------
http://www.bahnof.se/~wizard/sollog/
or a web search on yahoo or lycos.
he predicted princess diana and twa 800
tragedies, and has a FEW more worth reading.
clinton and the pope are quite prominent
and in big trouble according to sollog, this year.
bad for them, good for gold...........sollog.....
kind-of sounds like gollum from hobbit fame..... ( my preciousss!! )
oh well....sollog --worth reading!

!; ) --------------------------------------------------

TO ALL WHO CELEBRATE THE JEWISH NEW YEAR 5758: L'shanah Tovah Tikateivu! And may all Kitcoites ( Jewish or not ) be inscribed in the Book of Life for another year.

i give-up.--- do a web search for sollog ( lycos )
and check his credentials. incredible to say
the least! his short-term predictions have
implications for ALL. ahem...gold too...

Kapnkev: An energetic, though still graceful forehand; back into your court.

Eldorado -- :- ) ) :- ) ) LOL Someday I'll get it right. Your supposed to sell the stuff for MORE than what you paid for it! :- ) )

JTF -- What got everybody so upset this year ( stox wise ) was that the VIX consistently traded above twenty for this year. During the 'bull' run in 1995-96 it ran around 13 to 16 or so. I don't have the exact numbers, but I'm sure that the CBOE website has them. VIX is used in pricing options. Basically, it's a standard deviation thingy for the trailing twelve months. So, ( roughly ) if the $VIX is 20, then you would expect a 20% price fluctuation about the current trendline for the last twelve months. Atleast that's how I understand it. The bottom line is this, a high $VIX means high volatility. Other indicators to look at are $TICK and $TRIN.

Strad Master: I am not Jewish, but I appreciate what you said. We all need to wish the best for everyone -- not just our small group at this site. How nice it would be if we could multiply what happens here a million fold -- not the topic ( gold, in this case ) , but the process of sharing ideas and choices -- whatever the topic. Aurator I'm sure could say this better than I. Where are you Aurator?

Eldo-
Never said "must" once. As for the "play", I'm making lots-o-$ in this market.

JTF-
J Arron sold 8000 contracts, Morgan bought 3000. Maybe it was the other way around, I don't know, been a busy couple days. Open interest was down on gold, even the most dewy eyed optimist cannot put a bullish face on this last rally. There was nothing to back it up.

George Cole-
I read all your posts. You have been calling for the equities to drop for a year now. You have proclaimed that the gold bull is on several times from 380 all the way down to 314. Do you have any money left, or have you not followed your own proclamations? Your posts of the last couple months have been real iffy, you were not willing to commit one way or the other. Lots of if this, than that, very hard to pin down. I respect your knowledge, and I find your posts informative. I agree wholeheartedly that it will be individual investor demand that will create an unstoppable bull in gold. I see no evidence anywhere in the world that this is happening. Asian currencies are in crisis, where is the demand for gold? True China and others have purchased gold, but this was all institutional buying. As much as they buy, it is significant to note the times they don't buy. They wanted no part of 320 gold. Most of the shorts have covered, we will not see another buy stop rally soon. As well reasoned as your posts are, I believe that you are letting your love of gold obscure the dangers inherent in the current market. Why buy gold when a G-7 nation - one who has never sold gold before - steps up and sells hundreds of tons? Is flies in the face of reality to believe that gold will not drop significantly. This is what puzzles me, you have an obvious grasp of worldwide markets, and an intricate knowledge of trading patterns, where do you get your good cheer?

NJ-
We all knew of the Aussie gold sales for months, likewise the Belgium, and the Netherlands, yet each precipitated a new and serious drop in price. Shall the pattern change now? Why? These CB sales have a psychological effect on these markets. People don't want gold if the largest and most conservative holders of gold don't want it. If it will be different this time, please explain your rational.

PS
Chart Schmart. A chart is but one arrow in the quiver. If charts told us anything we could depend on, we, and everyone else in the world, would all be rich. What I see in the chart you referenced is a severe downtrend. You would like to see a breakout, which might hold true if there was any new buys of gold. The last few days was ALL please let me repeat ALL ALL ALL ALL ALL ALL short covering. This does not a trend reversal make. This is like holding a girl's hand for the first time, then going out to buy a wedding ring. Get to know her a bit before you commit, lest ye find yourself committed.

Earl-
I will concede 350 only if silver participates, not only that, but leads the way. The problem with silver is that it was all based on warehouse stocks. I've seen this before. There could be millions of oz sitting on the docks in London before finding its way back into the COMEX. Warehouse stocks are yet another single arrow, not to be fired at the enemy without others to follow. As for your wonderfully convoluted last sentence, that's why I always read your stuff - your are a wordsmith and a gentleman, well.. mostly. I refuse to use those grin thingies.

Roebear-
There is no question of the sale, it has already happened. I keep telling everyone here: 200+ metric tons have been sold by a European CB over the last five weeks. There is no putting this genie back in the bottle.

Wow. Shut down Kitco for a day, and I get a little wordy. Oh well, enough splashes of cold water in the collective face for now. I hope you all make a ton of $ in gold, despite the tons nobody else seems to want.

JTF -- The CBOE web site for data is http://www.cboe.com/new/stats/stats.html

The earliest date that I could come up with, that had $VIX data was Nov 11,1996. It was in the neighborhood of 16 and climbing at that time. Funny how they don't have the numbers for earlier dates.

Panda -- But you forget that you CAN have deflation WITH inflation! It's kind of like relativity. Think of it in terms of more dollars STILL being able to buy less, for whatever reasons one might want to put behind it! The Fed/Gov would NEED to lower interest rates to counteract this but, IMHO, nothing they can do at this point is currative! We are now over the down-slope of the steep hill riding a rocket powered sled that just came over the top. I.E., We are now air-born and the fuel is/about exhausted. We will NOT make it into perpetual orbit. Not even close! Not unless the immutable laws of 'gravity' are being changed forthwith! The most they can do is extend the wings on this sled to let it 'fly' a little further. However, in doing so, the 'downdraft' when it happens, WILL be harder!

JTF Help please... Reynolds number?

JTF: Hear! Hear! You said it just fine. Thanks.

O.K. RJ, what did you do? :- ) I saw the "more" in your post was in boldface, then my post was in boldface, except that, in neither post can you get the rest of the text. ???? High tech strikes again! Time to go to bed. Good night all.

Panda: Thanks always wondered how the Options are priced. I assume that a standard model of the market is used, al la Black-Scholes. I've glanced at this, but have not tried to wade through the mathematics. I guess if the market behaves in non-standard manner, then the options priceing would be thoroughly messed up! I don't know enough to guess what could happen,except that somebody who doesn't expect to lose loses. Central Banks, anyone? Thanks again -- now it's time for me to learn.

O.K. Now all of the recent posts are coming out in boldface type, and the "more" works. Is it me? Good night all, Happy New Year Strad!

Employment report out tomorrow, hopefully a kick in the pants for gold ( up that is! ) .

All: Does EMU emergence in 98 and the world turning to the that currency as the global currency vs the $ set the stage for a US market correction.
Will AU Rally strong Jan-Oct 98 while the market begins a long, slow
decline to an October crash? I hope so.

Aurator: I was hoping for eloquence, and you are looking at the Reynolds number posts!
My neurons are about gone - 14 hours of work today. The Reynolds number is a number that one can calculate for any fluid. When certain properties of a flowing fluid lead to a number over the critical Reynolds number, then the motion of that fluid becomes unstable. One example might be rowing a boat. If you gently row, you can pull the boat forward without making those eddies ( little whirlpools ) . If you pull harder you will make those eddies all the time. Another example is the falling flow of water out of a faucet. When the water is flowing slowly you get a long smooth stream for a considerable distance before it breaks up. But if you turn up the flow of the water ( moves faster ) the smooth stream breaks up sooner. This is what makes those big waterfalls so beautiful- the breakup of the smooth flow of the water. I'm not thinking clearly, so some of this may be less than perfect to the purist. But I hope it does convey the essence.
I await your words of eloquence - not on this matter, but on the words of Strad Master!

Goodnight everyone -- my better half calls me ----